Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/28/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
407 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...AND
THEN RETREATS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE MIDWEST. THE LOWS PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY...SENDING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STRATUS THAT IMPACTED LI/CT AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFT HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF EASTERN LI SOUND. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A BANK OF
STRATUS ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF LI RETURNS NORTH IN A LIGHT E/SE
FLOW. THE EXPANSE AND COVERAGE IS IN QUESTION...BUT THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LI AND SE CT THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY EXPANDING
NW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PREFERENCE HERE WAS TO FOLLOW HIRES
MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE HRRR AND NAM. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AS
THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A E/SE FLOW...WHICH BY DAYBREAK
BACKS MORE TO THE E/NE AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL FEATURE AN
AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE MIDWEST ON SUN THAT TRACKS
QUICKLY ENE AND THROUGH THE NE ON MON. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT AND THEN OCCLUDES TO
THE NORTH ON MON. THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND POSSIBLY A TRIPLE POINT
LOW PASS NEAR THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE AREA
MAY BRIEFLY WARM SECTOR...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK AT BEST DUE TO
THE MARINE LAYER. WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED
CONVECTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FORECAST.
THUS...LOOKING AT A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION EVENT WITH RAIN WORKING
INTO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. THE
FAST NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER AN
INCH. IN ADDITION...WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP.
OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRYING OUT WITH A GUSTY W/SW FLOW DEVELOPING.
AS FOR TEMPS...HIGH ON SUN WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH THE CLOUD COVER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
IT WILL BE WARMER AS WELL ON MON WITH READINGS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...TRANSITIONING FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS E OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH A DIGGING WRN CANADIAN TROUGH AND CONTINUE
EWD...IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST THU/FRI.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG CAA AND
SHARP PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRES
DEPARTING TO THE NE MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH TUE. GUSTS COULD APPROACH OR EVEN REACH WIND ADVSY
LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL FALL JUST SHORT. WINDS ABATE TUE NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD
AND THE OFFSHORE ON WED WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND THU BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND LOW PRES MOVING TOWARDS/THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIVERGE. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT DETAILS OF THIS LATE WEEK STORM
SYSTEM...MAINLY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH...ALTHOUGH UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME AS LOW PRES TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SE CANADA.
OTHER THAN TUE NIGHT WHERE CONDS APPEAR OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING RESULTING IN LOWS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SCT-BKN CIGS AT 3500-4000 FT OVER SE CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT. LATEST MAV/LAV GUIDANCE
KEEP THE REGION VFR...WHILE THE LATEST MET GUIDANCE BRINGS CONDS
DOWN TO IFR. WILL LOWER CIGS TO 3000 FT FROM EAST TO WEST STARTING
AT 03Z OVER KGON AND OVER 07Z AT KEWR...AND THEN DOWN TO 1000-1500
FT LATE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONDS GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...MAINLY OUT OF THE E-SE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CONDS LIFTING TO VFR EARLY.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...IFR IN -RA/FOG AS LOW PRES PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. W-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS MONDAY
NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING THE
DAY...THEN WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG. S WINDS 15-20 KT WITH
20-30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH AND NWPS GUIDANCE BY 1-2 FT BASED ON OVER FORECAST
AT BUOYS. THIS WILL KEEP WATER LEVELS JUST BELOW SCA ON THE
OCEAN.
THERE`S THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS ON ALL WATERS MON
NIGHT AND TUE AS WINDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW
PRES DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE
MIDWEST...COLD ADVECTION AND SHARP PRES RISES. SCA MAY LINGER INTO
TUE NIGHT. BRIEF TRANQUIL CONDS ON WED WITH HIGH PRES OHD MOVING
OFFSHORE. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN WITH SCA POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT
BETWEEN THIS STRONG HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW PRES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUN NGT AND MON. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...24/DW
HYDROLOGY...24/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
417 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...DELAYED ONSET OF SHOWERS/STORMS DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING CAP OVER THE AREA. AS WAVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE COAST MOVES NE...WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS SW GA AND FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVE. HIGH-RES HRRR SHOWING MESO-HIGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION ACROSS SW GA... WILL BE ACROSS COASTAL SE GA THIS EVE
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE
SPREADING NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF RAISING POPS TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN LOWERING TO
CHANCE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
IMPULSE LIFTS NE. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
SUNDAY...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE REGION. THE ELONGATED VORT LOBE COUPLED WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH FLOW OFF THE
GULF WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. WE HAVE MODIFIED
POPS SOMEWHAT AND HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MAINLY ALL AREAS NORTH
OF THE STATE BORDER WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
THERE...EXCEPT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. SOME STORMS AGAIN MAY
BE STRONG WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS. ANY STORMS
THAT MANAGE TO GET GOING WILL BE POTENTIALLY STRONG WITH WET
MICRO-BURST POTENTIAL AND SPC HAS OUR AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SE
GA...BUT SOME PARTIAL SUN COULD HELP NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUN EVENING TO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MON.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUN NIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
FL PANHANDLE BY LATE MON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA ON SUN EVENING...WITH THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST GA. A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER PAST SUNSET TOMORROW
EVENING...WITH SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A VORTICITY LOBE ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS COULD ALSO PROMOTE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS THE RAINFALL ENDS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON MON.
LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON MON...WITH FORCING ALOFT DECREASING LOCALLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 10T-15 MPH AHEAD OF
THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOME LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OFFSHORE WINDS AND DECREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S ALL THE WAY TO THE
BEACHES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MON
NIGHT...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS
PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL FL AND ALLOWING A DRIER
AIR MASS TO GRADUALLY FILTER INTO OUR AREA. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 50S INLAND...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S AT THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION ON TUES...WITH
LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL FL...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING JUST NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S ALONG THE COAST...RANGING TO NEAR 80 IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND INLAND NORTH CENTRAL FL. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE ON TUES EVENING...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TO THE MID 60S IN
COASTAL NORTHEAST FL...WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON WED WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE BY WED EVENING...WITH WINDS VEERING LOCALLY TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY WED AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THURS AND FRI. CONDITIONS WILL MOISTEN ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED...WITH SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON THURS. HIGHS WED WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S AT THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW TO THE LOW/MID 80S
INLAND. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING WED NIGHT...WITH
60S EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT. HIGHS THURS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
80S INLAND...WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES.
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON FRI OR SAT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SPEEDING UP THE PASSAGE TO LATE FRI...WHILE THE 12Z OPERATIONAL
ECMWF SUGGESTING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON LATE FRI...AND THUS DELAYING THE PASSAGE
UNTIL SAT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING THE 80S...WITH A BRIEF
EPISODE OF SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE HAS BEEN A LULL IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND LINGERING CAP OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST. HIGH-
RES MODELS (HRRR) SHOWING ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST SEABREEZE AND MOVING NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING OF ONSET OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DUE TO THE CAP IN THE AREA AND HAVE VCTS IN ALL TAF
SITES FOR NOW BETWEEN 21Z-01Z. WHILE THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NO HEADLINES. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS SPEEDS AND SEAS STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION AND EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND BECOME EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE WITH BUILDING SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS:
LOW RISK CONTINUES IN THE WEAK SE/S FLOW WITH BREAKERS OF 2-3 FT
AT THE LOCAL BEACHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 64 74 62 81 / 70 90 80 20
SSI 65 73 64 78 / 70 90 80 20
JAX 65 78 65 83 / 80 70 70 30
SGJ 67 76 66 81 / 70 60 60 40
GNV 66 80 67 83 / 80 50 50 40
OCF 68 82 68 83 / 60 50 50 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PETERSON/NELSON/GUILLET
...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
TUE-SAT...SLIGHT DRYING IS INDICATED TUE AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH...BUT THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
WHICH WILL NECESSITATE CHANCE POPS. TEMPS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE
QUITE COLD SO CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE COAST TO OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WED. AN OVERALL MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS INDICATED AS WEAK RIDGING
MOVES OVERHEAD. POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH THUNDER CHANCES SHIFTED
WELL INLAND LOOK IN ORDER. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TURN
SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH ON FRI. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND
SHOULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT CIGS AND VSBY INTERRUPTED BY PCPN ALONG WITH SCT
STORMS WITH SOME REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AND BRIEF IFR TONIGHT THROUGH
27/03Z. CONDS BECMG VFR AFT 27/04Z. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE IN RAIN AFFECTED AREAS EARLY SAT MNLY FM 27/09Z-27/12Z.
&&
.MARINE...TONIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS LIFTING N OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. SEAS AROUND 2 FT
NEAR SHORE AND 3 TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE CAN BE EXPECTED. MARINERS
WILL SEE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE COASTAL STORMS VICE PREVAILING
WIND AND SEA STATE WHICH ASIDE FROM STORMS.
SUN NIGHT...NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT TOWARDS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. OFFSHORE MOVING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING DUE TO SEA
BREEZE COLLISIONS OVER THE MAINLAND AND STORM STEERING FLOW TAKING
REMNANTS OFF OF THE COAST...INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS AND NEAR SHORE
ATLC WATERS. STORM MOTION TOWARD THE EAST OR ENE AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS INVOF STRONGER STORMS.
SERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST FROM THE LATE DAY SEA BREEZE WILL VEER
BACK TO SSW IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS 10-13 KTS OVER THE
OPEN ATLC. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE.
...PREVIOUS MARINE EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MON-THU...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL GET NUDGED SOUTH MON AS TAIL END
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS IN TO NORTH FLORIDA. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO EASE LATE MON INTO
TUE AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH WEAKENS ACROSS THE WATERS. IT LOOKS DRIER
OVERALL BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS EXISTS TUE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS SHOWN BRIDGING THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WED WITH WINDS FRESHENING OUT OF THE EAST. SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES EXPECTED BUT MAIN CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE WELL
INLAND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 69 83 68 82 / 40 60 60 40
MCO 69 86 70 84 / 40 50 50 40
MLB 70 86 70 84 / 40 30 50 40
VRB 69 86 69 86 / 30 20 40 40
LEE 69 86 70 84 / 40 60 50 40
SFB 68 86 70 83 / 40 60 50 40
ORL 69 86 70 83 / 40 50 50 40
FPR 70 86 68 86 / 30 20 40 50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM/RADAR....SEDLOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
143 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT TPA...PIE...LAL AND SRQ.
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD PGD...FMY AND RSW...PATCHY FOG WITH SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THEN
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WE COULD SEE SOME MORE MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INLAND AWAY FROM THE COASTAL SITES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016/
UPDATE (REST OF THE OVERNIGHT)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MUCH OF THE CONUS NOW
UNDER A VERY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES
WITHIN THE EASTERN BASE REGION OF THIS TROUGH...ALLOWING A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO QUICKLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND OVER THE STATE. ONE SUCH IMPULSE BROUGHT QUITE A BIT OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE I-4 CORRIDOR OF THE STATE THIS PAST
AFTERNOON...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE EXITING OFF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST ALLOWING FOR A QUIETER PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT WV
AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF SUGGEST YET
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IS DOWNSTREAM AND HEADED OUR WAY. NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING A GOOD HANDLE ON
THESE WEAK IMPULSES OVER THE GULF...AND HAS NOT BEEN MUCH USE THE
PAST 24 HOURS...EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM. MOST GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NATURE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...BUT WATCHING THE EXPANDING AREA OF COOLER CLOUD TOPS
TELL US THAT DECENT SYNOPTIC LIFT IS OCCURRING ON A TRAJECTORY
THAT WOULD BRING RAINFALL A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. ALL THIS IS
ASSUMING THE ACTIVITY HOLD TOGETHER ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. WITH
A LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE LEVEL AS TO JUST WHERE AND JUST
WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIND ITS WAY TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...HAVE NOT GONE WITH ANY REALLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT RATHER HAVE SIDED WITH A LOWER AND MORE BROAD
CHANCE POP FOR THE AREA. AS SATELLITE AND RADAR TREND CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES...THESE FORECASTS CAN BE UPDATED
WITH MORE DETAIL...AND HOPEFULLY GIVE A FEW HOURS NOTICE WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES. ALSO HOPEFULLY THE 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE WILL
SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE INITIALIZATION OF FEATURES.
SO AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NEXT FEW HOURS LOOK GENERALLY
DRY...OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. THEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD AS THE NEXT IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (SATURDAY)...
FOR SATURDAY...THINGS LOOK QUITE SIMILAR...WITH ANOTHER WEAK MID
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THIS
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO FAVOR RAIN ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE TODAY...IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS...THIS
AREA COULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD. MORE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS...WITH THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...DEPENDING
LARGELY ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ADRIFT DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN
SOLIDLY IN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TERRITORY.
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF A STALLED FRONT
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. ANOTHER ROUND OR
TWO OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT LOOKS TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
OVER THE NORTHER WATERS. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 82 72 80 72 / 30 30 30 40
FMY 87 71 85 71 / 30 30 30 20
GIF 85 71 84 71 / 60 40 60 40
SRQ 79 69 78 71 / 20 30 20 40
BKV 84 70 82 70 / 40 40 50 40
SPG 80 72 79 72 / 20 30 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...69/CLOSE
PREV DISCUSSION...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1052 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT... RESULTING IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL DURING NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN SHIELD HAS CLEARED THE CSRA AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE SUPPORT FOR THE RAIN SHIFTS QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. THERE WERE A FEW SPOTS THAT HAD SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN LEE AND SOUTHEASTERN
RICHLAND COUNTIES...BUT THAT ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED. ALL CURRENT
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
DESPITE THE STRONGEST SUPPORT COMING TO AN END...THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY AND MID LEVEL
CVA TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD END BY DAWN AS DEEPER DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MOS
GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE LOW VSBYS FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT THE HRRR SHOWS ONLY PATCHES OF FOG.
CONSIDERING THAT ALL AREAS DID RECEIVE SOME RAIN TODAY...I WILL
HOLD ON TO THE FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY MONDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION
MONDAY. WITH TROUGH MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA...FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY
BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED AND SHALLOW. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS BY
MIDDAY...GUIDANCE POPS VERY LOW SO REMOVED POPS. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY AND DOWNSLOPE MORE LIKELY...SO
WARM DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80
DEGREES.
COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY REGION. GUIDANCE REASONABLE IN THE 40S.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES/BUT COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND FAIR WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST
BUILDS EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND THEN EAST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY FROM THE GULF COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN HIGH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET-MAX AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY UNCERTAIN. FRONT MAY LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT CLEARING EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR AROUND 15Z.
RAIN IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN
REMAINING ACROSS THE TAF SITES...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING AS
FOG DEVELOPS. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 04Z AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS THEN BEGIN SLOWLY
IMPROVING AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 15Z ONWARD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN BECOME
WESTERLY BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 15Z AND 22Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
905 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT... RESULTING IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL DURING NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN SHIELD HAS CLEARED THE CSRA AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE SUPPORT FOR THE RAIN SHIFTS QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. THERE WERE A FEW SPOTS THAT HAD SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN LEE AND SOUTHEASTERN
RICHLAND COUNTIES...BUT THAT ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED. ALL CURRENT
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
DESPITE THE STRONGEST SUPPORT COMING TO AN END...THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY AND MID LEVEL
CVA TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD END BY DAWN AS DEEPER DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MOS
GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE LOW VSBYS FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT THE HRRR SHOWS ONLY PATCHES OF FOG.
CONSIDERING THAT ALL AREAS DID RECEIVE SOME RAIN TODAY...I WILL
HOLD ON TO THE FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY MONDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION
MONDAY. WITH TROUGH MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA...FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY
BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED AND SHALLOW. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS BY
MIDDAY...GUIDANCE POPS VERY LOW SO REMOVED POPS. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY AND DOWNSLOPE MORE LIKELY...SO
WARM DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80
DEGREES.
COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY REGION. GUIDANCE REASONABLE IN THE 40S.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES/BUT COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND FAIR WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST
BUILDS EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND THEN EAST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY FROM THE GULF COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN HIGH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET-MAX AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY UNCERTAIN. FRONT MAY LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT CLEARING EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR AROUND 15Z.
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH CIGS AND VSBYS VARIABLE
BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY
04Z AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST THEN TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW CIGS
AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION RETURNING
CONDITIONS TO VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
12Z...THEN BECOME WESTERLY BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 15Z AND
22Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1010 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY TODAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING AND BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MORNING UPDATE...CONTINUED TO ADJUST POPS AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH COASTAL SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. INCREASED QPF TO ACCOUNT
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INCREASED CONFIDENCE THIS
MORNING. THE ONCE DISCRETE CELL CLUSTER IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREA. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS MORNING.
ALSO...SOME CLEARING FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IS BEING NOTED ON
VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS. WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUN
COULD FILTER THROUGH THIS MORNING IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON TEMPS OR INSTABILITY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA TODAY. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS FORECAST TO SURGE TO 1.5-1.75
INCHES. A NUMBER OF UPSTREAM IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY...THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH A WELL-
DEFINED 250 HPA DIFLUENCE SIGNATURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASSENT
NOTED ALONG THE NOSE OF 35 KT LOW- LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A STEADY
UPTICK IN CONVECTION AFTER SUNRISE WHICH WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN
AND IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER COULD MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER THIS
MORNING. SHOULD THIS FEATURE DEVELOP...IT COULD DISRUPT THE INFLOW
OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND THUS LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE POP FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS REASON...RANGING FROM 70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS. COULD SEE AN
AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY DEVELOP IN THE SAVANNAH- DARIEN-
LUDOWICI CORRIDOR WHERE MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SBCAPES
NEARING 1200 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES -4 TO -6C. GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR THAT IS PLACE AND THE PRESENCE OF A MODEST
LOW-LEVEL JET...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA.
TONIGHT...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THE NIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR AND A POWERFUL SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. MORE
CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY WILL BEING TO IMPACT INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA CLOSER TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET APPROACHES. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TONIGHT...THE RISK FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THE NIGHT AS THE AREA
REMAINS FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND A POWERFUL
SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY
WILL BEING TO IMPACT INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET APPROACHES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WARMEST SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NEW ENGLAND. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING
THE DAY THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. NAEFS SHOWS HIGHEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH P-WATS 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL STREAMING INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE
APPROACHES THE AREA MAINLY DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP WILL ENSUE.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND PVA ALOFT AT LEAST NUISANCE
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOT EXPECTED.
OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.
POPS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA.
THICK CLOUD COVER WILL PROVIDE AMPLE INSULATION AND TEMPS WILL ONLY
FALL ABOUT 10F FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN SHOWERS GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IS STILL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
MONDAY...AN INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BRINGING WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 FOR MOST.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE
CONTENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN THE LOW LEVELS.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OR POSSIBLY WEAK RIDGING WILL FILL IN AND THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL DRY OUT KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN NATURE
AND PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE THREAT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
STRETCH DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE A RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR
REGION. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THURSDAY...BRINGING OUR AREA
THE THREAT OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT KCHS THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING. THERE REMAINS TIMING/COVERAGE ISSUES IN THE VARIOUS HIGH
RESOLUTION DATA SETS...WHICH LEADS TO ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST IMPACT WINDOW
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AT KSAV WILL BE ROUGHLY 16-19Z AND 18-21Z A
KCHS. WILL CARRY TEMPO GROUPS FOR LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME. MOST THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR KSAV BY MID
AFTERNOON AND LATE AFTERNOON AT KCHS. LOW STRATUS COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WET
GROUNDS. BEST CHANCES FOR IFR OR LOWER WILL BE AT KSAV. WILL LIMIT
CIGS TO LOW-END MVFR FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING DUE TO A FRONT STALLING OVER
OR NEAR THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO
NEAR 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO CLOUD AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.
TONIGHT...A LIGHT...SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO THE THE WEST. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...
CAUSING INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND OUTPUT FROM NWPS INDICATES
1-2 FT SWELLS OF 8-9 SECONDS WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES TODAY.
DESPITE THIS AND SOME LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES... FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL RIP CURRENT
RISK. A LOW RISK WILL BE INDICATED FOR ALL BEACHES THROUGH SUNSET.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEB/ST
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...CEB/MS
MARINE...CEB/MS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
658 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY TODAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING AND BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA TODAY.
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO SURGE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES. A NUMBER OF
UPSTREAM IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL
PASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER FORCING
WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH A WELL-DEFINED 250 HPA DIFLUENCE
SIGNATURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASSENT NOTED ALONG THE NOSE OF 35
KT LOW- LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A STEADY UPTICK IN CONVECTION AFTER
SUNRISE WHICH WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN AND IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER COULD MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORDIA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER THIS
MORNING. SHOULD THIS FEATURE DEVELOP...IT COULD DISRUPT THE INFLOW
OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND THUS LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE POP FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS REASON...RANGING FROM 70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS. COULD SEE AN
AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY DEVELOP IN THE SAVANNAH- DARIEN-
LUDOWICI CORRIDOR WHERE MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SBCAPES
NEARING 1200 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES -4 TO -6C. GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR THAT IS PLACE AND THE PRESENCE OF A MODEST
LOW-LEVEL JET...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THE NIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR AND A POWERFUL SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. MORE
CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY WILL BEING TO IMPACT INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA CLOSER TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET APPROACHES. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NEW ENGLAND. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING
THE DAY THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. NAEFS SHOWS HIGHEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH P-WATS 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL STREAMING INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE
APPROACHES THE AREA MAINLY DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP WILL ENSUE.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND PVA ALOFT AT LEAST NUISANCE
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOT EXPECTED.
OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.
POPS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA.
THICK CLOUD COVER WILL PROVIDE AMPLE INSULATION AND TEMPS WILL ONLY
FALL ABOUT 10F FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN SHOWERS GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IS STILL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
MONDAY...AN INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BRINGING WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 FOR MOST.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE
CONTENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN THE LOW LEVELS.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OR POSSIBLY WEAK RIDGING WILL FILL IN AND THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL DRY OUT KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN NATURE
AND PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE THREAT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
STRETCH DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE A RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR
REGION. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THURSDAY...BRINGING OUR AREA
THE THREAT OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INITIAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS PASSED BOTH TERMINALS...BUT LOOK
FOR ADDITIONAL REDEVELOP TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY MID-
LATE MORNING...THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THERE REMAINS TIMING/COVERAGE ISSUES IN THE VARIOUS HIGH
RESOLUTION DATA SETS...WHICH LEADS TO ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST IMPACT WINDOW
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AT KSAV WILL BE ROUGHLY 16-19Z AND 18-21Z A
KCHS. WILL CARRY TEMPO GROUPS FOR LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME. MOST THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR KSAV BY MID
AFTERNOON AND LATE AFTERNOON AT KCHS. LOW STRATUS COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WET
GROUNDS. BEST CHANCES FOR IFR OR LOWER WILL BE AT KSAV. WILL LIMIT
CIGS TO LOW-END MVFR FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING DUE TO A FRONT STALLING OVER
OR NEAR THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO
NEAR 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
TONIGHT...A LIGHT...SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO THE THE WEST. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...
CAUSING INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND OUTPUT FROM NWPS INDICATES
1-2 FT SWELLS OF 8-9 SECONDS WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES TODAY.
DESPITE THIS AND SOME LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES... FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL RIP CURRENT
RISK. A LOW RISK WILL BE INDICATED FOR ALL BEACHES THROUGH SUNSET.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
626 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN RETREAT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REENTER THE
REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND THE PIEDMONT. THE FOG DEVELOPED IN JUST AHEAD OF BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
MIDLANDS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER MIDLANDS LATER
TODAY.
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HIGH RESOLUTION AND NEAR TERM MODELS IN
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE POPS INDICATED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS. A WEAK SHALLOW WEDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. DEEPER MOISTURE
AND GREATER INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...THE SHALLOW WEDGE AND SHOWERS WILL
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS WITH
WARMER READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA. COULD SEE SHOWERS DECREASE TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE
MIDLANDS AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HOLD THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CATEGORICAL POPS. QPF AROUND 1 TO
2 INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON SUNDAY.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY SO DECREASING POPS DURING THE DAY WITH CLEARING
BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF MID
LEVEL CAP. GUIDANCE GIVES HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80S WITH DRYING
AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO
THE EAST COAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFF THE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. PRECIP REENTERS THE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. GUIDANCE
BLEND POPS INCREASING SO RAISED POPS LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR...EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE
PERIOD.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE CSRA AND
INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL WAVES OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THUNDER WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OVERCAST SKIES WITH CEILINGS LESS THAN 1 KFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND MOST MODELS CONTINUE THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES MAY BE QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE
DAY...DEPENDING ON WHETHER TAF SITE IS BEING IMPACTED BY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR NOT. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN BACK TO EASTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS OF 6 KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN IFR
CONDITIONS PRE-DAWN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
020>022.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
552 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN RETREAT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REENTER THE
REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND THE PIEDMONT. THE FOG DEVELOPED IN JUST AHEAD OF BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
MIDLANDS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER MIDLANDS LATER
TODAY.
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HIGH RESOLUTION AND NEAR TERM MODELS IN
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE POPS INDICATED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS. A WEAK SHALLOW WEDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. DEEPER MOISTURE
AND GREATER INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...THE SHALLOW WEDGE AND SHOWERS WILL
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS WITH
WARMER READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA. COULD SEE SHOWERS DECREASE TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE
MIDLANDS AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HOLD THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CATEGORICAL POPS. QPF AROUND 1 TO
2 INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON SUNDAY.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY SO DECREASING POPS DURING THE DAY WITH CLEARING
BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF MID
LEVEL CAP. GUIDANCE GIVES HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80S WITH DRYING
AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO
THE EAST COAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFF THE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. PRECIP REENTERS THE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. GUIDANCE
BLEND POPS INCREASING SO RAISED POPS LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBS INDICATE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA...WITH MANY SITES BEGINNING TO DROP
BELOW 1 KFT. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MOST SITES IFR ALREADY...WITH OGB THE
EXCEPTION. OGB WILL DROP INTO MVFR AS LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS.
BY SUNRISE A PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE FRONT AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HRRR SHOWS THAT THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL/OGB SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS BEGINNING
AT CAE/CUB AN HOUR OR SO LATER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM 16Z ONWARD...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN BACK TO EASTERLY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS OF 6 KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN IFR
CONDITIONS PRE-DAWN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
020>022.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
410 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY TODAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING AND BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WEAK FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS
THAT IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS THROUGH SUNRISE WITH
THE LATEST RAP/H3R SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE AT THE
COAST.
TODAY...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL MEANDER INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER DAYBREAK BEFORE BUCKLING BACK TO
THE NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA LATER TODAY. A
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWATS FORECAST TO SURGE TO 1.5-1.75
INCHES. A NUMBER OF UPSTREAM IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY...THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH A WELL-
DEFINED 250 HPA DIFLUENCE SIGNATURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASSENT
NOTED ALONG THE NOSE OF 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A STEADY
UPTICK IN CONVECTION AFTER SUNRISE WHICH WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN
AND IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER COULD MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORDIA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER THIS
MORNING. SHOULD THIS FEATURE DEVELOP...IT COULD DISRUPT THE
INFLOW OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND THUS LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE POP FORECAST WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS REASON...RANGING FROM 70 PERCENT FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
COULD SEE AN AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY DEVELOP IN THE SAVANNAH-
DARIEN-LUDOWICI CORRIDOR WHERE MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW
SBCAPES NEARING 1200 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES -4 TO -6C. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR THAT IS PLACE AND THE PRESENCE OF A
MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTM
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THE NIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR AND A POWERFUL SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. MORE
CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY WILL BEING TO IMPACT INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA CLOSER TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET APPROACHES. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NEW ENGLAND. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING
THE DAY THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. NAEFS SHOWS HIGHEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH P-WATS 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL STREAMING INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE
APPROACHES THE AREA MAINLY DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP WILL ENSUE.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND PVA ALOFT AT LEAST NUISANCE
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOT EXPECTED.
OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.
POPS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA.
THICK CLOUD COVER WILL PROVIDE AMPLE INSULATION AND TEMPS WILL ONLY
FALL ABOUT 10F FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN SHOWERS GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IS STILL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
MONDAY...AN INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BRINGING WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 FOR MOST.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE
CONTENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN THE LOW LEVELS.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OR POSSIBLY WEAK RIDGING WILL FILL IN AND THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL DRY OUT KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN NATURE
AND PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE THREAT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
STRETCH DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE A RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR
REGION. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THURSDAY...BRINGING OUR AREA
THE THREAT OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER 09Z...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR STRATUS
OVER FOG. WILL CARRY PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BY 09Z WITH TEMPO GROUPS
FOR IFR FROM 10-12 BUT KEEP CIGS ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. THERE
ARE SIGNALS AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS COULD PASS THROUGH JUST ABOUT
THIS TIME...WHICH MAY TEMPER CONDITIONS A BIT. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE AREAS OF SHOWERS
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A RISK FOR TSTMS...BUT MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS RISK IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION. WINDOW
OF GREATEST IMPACT LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY 19-23Z.
KSAV...RISK FOR FOG/STRATUS LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH SUNRISE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
GULF COULD PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL ROUGHLY 09-12Z. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS...BUT THE BULK OF THIS LOOKS TO PASS TO THE SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL LINGER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH. WILL HOLD
CONDITIONS AT MVFR FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
NEEDED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING DUE TO A FRONT STALLING OVER
OR NEAR THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO
NEAR 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
TONIGHT...A LIGHT...SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO THE THE WEST. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...
CAUSING INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND OUTPUT FROM NWPS INDICATES
1-2 FT SWELLS OF 8-9 SECONDS WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES TODAY.
DESPITE THIS AND SOME LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES... FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL RIP CURRENT
RISK. A LOW RISK WILL BE INDICATED FOR ALL BEACHES THROUGH SUNSET.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/MS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
403 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN RETREAT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REENTER THE
REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER MIDLANDS TODAY.
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HIGH RESOLUTION AND NEAR TERM MODELS IN
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE POPS INDICATED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS. A WEAK SHALLOW WEDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. DEEPER MOISTURE
AND GREATER INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...THE SHALLOW WEDGE AND SHOWERS WILL
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS WITH
WARMER READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA. COULD SEE SHOWERS DECREASE TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE
MIDLANDS AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HOLD THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CATEGORICAL POPS. QPF AROUND 1 TO
2 INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON SUNDAY.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY SO DECREASING POPS DURING THE DAY WITH CLEARING
BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF MID
LEVEL CAP. GUIDANCE GIVES HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80S WITH DRYING
AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO
THE EAST COAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFF THE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. PRECIP REENTERS THE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. GUIDANCE
BLEND POPS INCREASING SO RAISED POPS LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBS INDICATE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA...WITH MANY SITES BEGINNING TO DROP
BELOW 1 KFT. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MOST SITES IFR ALREADY...WITH OGB THE
EXCEPTION. OGB WILL DROP INTO MVFR AS LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS.
BY SUNRISE A PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE FRONT AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HRRR SHOWS THAT THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL/OGB SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS BEGINNING
AT CAE/CUB AN HOUR OR SO LATER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM 16Z ONWARD...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN BACK TO EASTERLY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS OF 6 KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN IFR
CONDITIONS PRE-DAWN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
130 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY.TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REENTER THE REGION BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH EXPECTATION OF LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
TO FALL.
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HIGH RESOLUTION AND NEAR TERM
MODELS IN SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN RAINFALL POTENTIAL DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL DOWN A BIT ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS AND UPPER CSRA
WHILE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.
ADJUSTED CURRENT AND NEAR TERM TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLING OUT NEAR THE AREA. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. THE NAM
MODEL HAS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND MODELS SUGGEST HIGHEST QPF
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OR SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. A WEAK SHALLOW WEDGE
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY AND WITH
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES AND BLEND IN
LOCAL WEDGE GUIDANCE. SO LOW 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF
FRONT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATELY LOW. DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH STRONGER LIFT/INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. CONVERGENCE MAY BE
STRONGER THERE AS WELL WITH FRONT IN THE REGION. SO HIGHEST POPS
SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. AIR MASS APPEARS A LITTLE
DRIER NORTHWEST OF CAE TO PIEDMONT...SO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THOSE
REGIONS. FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS POPS
INCREASING TO NEAR CATEGORICAL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY SO RAISED
POPS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. QPF AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY SO DECREASING POPS DURING THE DAY WITH CLEARING
BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF MID
LEVEL CAP.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFF THE OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BACK
TO THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. PRECIP REENTERS THE FORECAST ONCE
AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. GUIDANCE
BLEND POPS INCREASING SO RAISED POPS LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBS INDICATE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA...WITH MANY SITES BEGINNING TO DROP
BELOW 1 KFT. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MOST SITES IFR ALREADY...WITH OGB THE
EXPECTION. OGB WILL DROP INTO MVFR AS LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS.
BY SUNRISE A PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE FRONT AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HRRR SHOWS THAT THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL/OGB SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS BEGINNING
AT CAE/CUB AN HOUR OR SO LATER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM 16Z ONWARD...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN BACK TO EASTERLY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS OF 6 KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN IFR
CONDITIONS PRE-DAWN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
906 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Showers are quickly departing into Indiana, as the cold front
pulls farther away to the east. West-northwest winds are still
gusting to 20 mph at times, especially east of I-55. Those gusts
should diminish a bit after midnight, but sustained winds will
remain in the 10-15 mph range. Drier air aloft will gradually
erode the cloud cover in Illinois from west to east, starting
later tonight. HRRR guidance shows clearing reaching I-55 by
sunrise, with clearing in the remainder of the area expected
Monday morning. The colder low temps in the mid 30s will be more
likely in areas that see clearing west of I-55, with upper 30s to
around 40 east of there.
Updates this evening were mainly to the PoP and weather grids,
along with hourly temp trends. Updated forecast info is already
available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Cold front making its way through Central Illinois this afternoon.
For now, the majority of the associated precip is well behind the
boundary and dominated with moderate to heavy rain. Some
destabilization out ahead of the advancing boundary is expected to
continue this afternoon mainly southeast of a line from Shelbyville
to Paris...but the area of concern continues to shift east. The
MUCAPES are confined to the southeast and continue to move that way
as cool outflow from the rainfall to the NW moves across the
surface. Discrete cells ahead of the boundary will remain possible
through the afternoon until the cold front moves through. So far,
the cap is holding with some cloud cover slowing the development of
the few echoes on radar. As far as the forecast goes...have rain
showers continuing past 00Z into the evening behind the boundary and
up until 06z, diminishing from west to east. Keeping much of the
clouds in place for the overnight as the cloud deck is still well
defined on sat imagery well back into IA. Cooler air will drop the
overnight lows into the 30s...with areas to the west getting colder
where some clearing will allow for more efficient radiational
cooling towards dawn... and around 40 in the east where the clouds
will be more persistent.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
High pressure will move across the area Monday and Tuesday with dry
and pleasant spring-like weather. However, another weather system
will develop in the plains and move toward the area mid week. With
the high pressure well to the west, windy south winds will bring the
return of moisture to the midwest ahead of the system. Models look
in good agreement that pcpn will remain west of the CWA through Tue
night, but then pcpn becomes likely Wed afternoon well ahead of the
front, that will still be back west of the area. So, could be two
areas of showers and thunderstorms during the day. One over our CWA
and then another back west near the front. Any rate, will have a
chance of pcpn for Wed and then likely for Wed night as the front
moves through the area. Once the sfc system moves through, the 500mb
low pressure area and associated trough will rotate through the area
Thur through Fri, so chances of pcpn will remain over portions of
the CWA through the rest of the week. Then expecting dry and cooler
conditions for next weekend.
Temps will get warmer ahead of the next system and then cool a bit
before the next one. Then cooler temps, with lows below freezing
possible next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
The cold front has pushed well southeast of the TAF sites, with
a line of moderate showers still expected to affect DEC through
0030Z and CMI through 0130z. No thunder is expected from that
line. A weak area of lift farther west is generating a narrow band
of light rain just west of a line from Peoria to Springfield. That
line will most likely move through too fast for measurable rain,
but sprinkles will be possible for an hour or so with the feature.
Beyond that, satellite clouds and the HRRR indicate that MVFR
clouds will linger for the remainder of the evening and possible
as late at 09z at PIA, with clearing farther south around SPI by
07z. The MVFR clouds may remain for CMI, BMI, and DEC until 12z
before clearing becomes more prominent. VFR conditions are
expected all day on Monday, with NW winds of 10-14kt.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
718 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...
211 PM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
IN THE NEAR TERM. AS OF 19Z...A COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT OFF OF
KLOT RADAR AND AREA OBS...AND STRETCHES FROM NEAR ORD SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO FORD COUNTY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW SITES IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA FLIRTING WITH THE 70 MARK. AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE
40S AND FOR RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ANY INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...THEN EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. ANY LINGERING STRATUS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS IN...AND WINDS SHOULD DROP TO 10 KT OR
LESS AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S ON MONDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE FRONT...BUT ONCE WINDS TURN OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 40S.
BMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
258 PM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LOWERED LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR
SKIES AND WEAK WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S. THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST TUESDAY...AND
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS SLOWLY BUILD
IN SO THINKING THE STRENGTHENING SPRING SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO RAISE
TEMPS TO AROUND 60 AWAY FROM THE LAKE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT
IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE.
THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MODELS SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF RAIN. KEPT A DRY FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE. HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS
INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS SOUNDINGS FEATURE SHALLOW SATURATION. THE
LOW/S WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG IT. THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE MODELS DO
NOT FEATURE MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND CAPE APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY
ELEVATED. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AND THUNDER COVERAGE. HAVE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35
MPH OR HIGHER PSBL.
HAVE MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE LAKE AND ITS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. THE EURO HOLDS ON TO PRECIP LONGER THURSDAY MORNING
SO KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE OR HIGHER RANGE ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH. TEMPS COULD BE COOLER THAN
FORECAST...BUT MATCHED HIGH TEMPS TO THE MORNING 925 MB TEMPS OF +10
TO +14 C. ADDITIONAL VORT STREAMERS ROTATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SO
KEPT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
30S AND COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTHWEST OF I-55 THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH. COLD AIR ALSO PUNCHES DOWN WITH
THE TROUGH LEADING TO HIGHS AROUND 50 FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PASSES
OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES SATURDAY. THINKING PRECIP WILL STAY OVER THE
LAKE LATE THIS WEEK AND TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN
THE 20S ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE: RAIN TRENDS THIS EVENING...CIG TRENDS THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY AND LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN OVER
THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS HAS ALREADY DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY
OVER DPA/ORD/MDW AS THE RAIN SHIELD GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST. FOCUS
FOR POTENTIAL LOW MVFR VSBY IN RA WILL BE AT GYY THIS EVENING.
LOWER MVFR CIGS ARE NOW IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS AND BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS...CIGS SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MOIST LAYER AT TOP OF MIXED
LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOW ON MONDAY...BUT THERE IS GOOD
CONSISTENCY IN SATURATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS ANTICIPATING
CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIG HEIGHTS
LIFTING TO VFR BEFORE SCATTERING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA...CAUSING
WINDS TO DIMINISH AND ENABLING A LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH ACROSS GYY
AND THEN MDW AND ORD. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY FLIRT WITH 10 KT BEHIND
THE WIND SHIFT FOR ORD/MDW...BUT KEPT SPEEDS BELOW 10 KT FOR NOW.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
258 PM CDT
HEADLINES...THINKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL TAKE A
LITTLE LONGER TO FORM...SO WILL NOT START THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY DUE TO HIGH WINDS.
WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS. WINDS BECOME MORE UNIFORM OUT OF THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
OVER THE REGION. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KT BY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT LOW FORMS OVER THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS AS IT PASSES OVER THE LAKE THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL VARY FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE LOW TO NORTHEAST NORTH
OF THE LAKE. MODELS ALSO DISAGREE ON HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE LOW THURSDAY. COULD SEE GUSTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST. WINDS
COULD ALSO BE HIGHER OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE BEHIND THE
LOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND GALES COULD OCCUR. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WIND SPEEDS WITH THE LOW. ANOTHER LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER THE
NORTHERN LAKES SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF GALES. DESPITE
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION...MODELS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW SO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN GALES NEXT WEEKEND AT
THIS TIME.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
656 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Small adjustments have been made throughout the morning as to the
hourly trend of the pops. The front is just west of I-55 this
morning, but the majority of the associated precip is well behind
it, at the Miss River Valley. Some echoes showing up on radar out
ahead of the main push...but so far, nothing reaching the ground.
Continued destabilization potential exists in the areas with
sunshine ahead of the boundary, so the southeastern area could
potentially see thunderstorm development later today. So far,
forecast is going well, with increasing pops and a non-diurnal
swing to the temps, particularly in the NW. Small adjustments, but
no major updates just yet.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Tricky forecast across central and southeast Illinois today. Biggest
concern revolves around precipitation chances, but this factor will
also have impacts on sky cover and temperatures. Latest surface
analysis has a fairly weak low pressure center along the
Minnesota/Iowa border, with an associated cold front extending
southeast toward the tip of west-central Illinois before curving
back southwest into the southern Plains.
Model guidance overall has slowed the local passage of the cold
front considerably in the past 24 hours, with the front now not
expected to reach the Indiana border much before 00Z this evening.
This slower arrival has two impacts. First, the mostly post-frontal
showers associated with the vigorous wave currently crossing the
Texas and Oklahoma panhandles will not really impact the western
portion of the forecast before late morning (with a later arrival
further east). Second, the later arrival of the front will allow
the eastern portion of the forecast are to destabilize more than
previously expected. Peak CAPE values over southeast Illinois are
now likely to top out in the 1000-1500 J/KG range late this
afternoon. This instability, combined with bulk shear values
around 50 kts, will likely result in a few strong-severe storms
across far east-central and southeast Illinois by late afternoon
before the front sweeps into Indiana. Latest SPC Day 1 outlook now
has added areas south/east of a Paris to Flora line to a Slight
Risk with this latest scenario in mind. The current forecast speed
of the front will result in a large range of high temperatures
across the area today. Highs will only be near 50 degrees around
Galesburg (where the front arrives earliest), but will reach as
high as the lower 70s in far southeast Illinois (where the front
doesn`t arrive until evening).
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Lingering precipitation to exit fairly quickly this evening as
surface low tracks northeast across central Indiana. Have maintained
categorical PoP`s across the eastern CWA for early-mid evening, but
most areas should be dry by midnight. After that, the start of the
work week will feature surface high pressure advancing eastward
across the central U.S. and into the Great Lakes region. Modest
upper ridging over the Plains will boost highs back into the 60s by
Tuesday and close to 70 degrees in some areas on Wednesday.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a vort max just west of Oregon in a
broader upper trough. This will evolve into a closed upper low which
will drop into the Nevada/Utah region by Tuesday. GFS model
continues to be a bit quicker in drawing the associated energy
northeast into a separate trough over Manitoba around mid week,
while the ECMWF is a bit slower in this regard and the Canadian
model leaning toward the GFS solution. Consequently, there is some
differences in timing of the return of precipitation. Leaned more
toward the quicker GFS/Canadian blend with a frontal passage late
Wednesday night, which is when the highest PoP`s are expected. Went
with mainly 40-50% rain chances during the day Wednesday, with some
higher PoP`s over the far northwest CWA in the afternoon. Lingered
some chance PoP`s into Thursday as the core of the upper trough
approaches, but trend would be for drying conditions by afternoon.
Latest long range guidance is focusing a split upper flow to
converge more over the Tennessee Valley this upcoming weekend, with
the core of the coldest air mass staying a bit further north that
earlier progged. However, the GFS still has 850 mb temperature of
-12C over our area by early Sunday. This is just beyond the current
forecast range, but will start to be addressed in the afternoon
forecast package.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
The cold front has pushed well southeast of the TAF sites, with
a line of moderate showers still expected to affect DEC through
0030Z and CMI through 0130z. No thunder is expected from that
line. A weak area of lift farther west is generating a narrow band
of light rain just west of a line from Peoria to Springfield. That
line will most likely move through too fast for measurable rain,
but sprinkles will be possible for an hour or so with the feature.
Beyond that, satellite clouds and the HRRR indicate that MVFR
clouds will linger for the remainder of the evening and possible
as late at 09z at PIA, with clearing farther south around SPI by
07z. The MVFR clouds may remain for CMI, BMI, and DEC until 12z
before clearing becomes more prominent. VFR conditions are
expected all day on Monday, with NW winds of 10-14kt.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
308 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES WILL BE WITH CLOUD TRENDS
TODAY...AND THEN WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RELATIVELY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...AS HIGH SURFACE HIGH
STILL SPANNING MUCH OF THE REGION. GRADIENT ON WEST SIDE OF RIDGE
AXIS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHEAST WIND THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH LESS
THAN 10KT. THIS SURFACE PATTERN AND WIND DIRECTION WILL HELP WINDS
TO REALLY TURN OFF THE LAKE AS SOON AS LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...WHICH
WILL BE KEY WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE. WHILE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WILL
LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW 40S. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPS
TODAY CAPPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S FOR AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA. HOWEVER...DO THINK A FEW 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY IMPACT HIGHS AND DID MAKE SOME CHANGES WITH TRENDS
FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONSIST OF PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
UPSTREAM MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER TO MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY. GIVEN THAT
LATEST IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONLY POCKETS OF MORE DENSE
CLOUDS AT THIS TIME...DID BACK OFF ON CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MORE PARTLY SUNNY
TO CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.
THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IS DUE TO
UPSTREAM MID LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
EAST/NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES. THIS WILL INCLUDE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP...WHICH IS APPEARING TO STAY TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AS THIS WAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT IT DOES LOOK
LIKE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...FORCING WILL LIKELY BE
STRONGER TO THE NORTH...AND SO ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM ENERGY
LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE
ASSOCIATED RAIN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THE FOCUS INITIALLY SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING BY THE MID MORNING TIME FRAME. DID MAKE LARGER
CHANGES WITH POPS WITH THIS BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE LIKELY POPS
SPREADING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THIS TIME. SOME SLIGHT
MODEL SPREAD GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THIS
TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION AND SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. PRECIP
WILL STILL BE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THIS VARIABILITY WILL ADD TO SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH HOW LONG
NORTHERN ILLINOIS STAYS IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN. WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...INCREASED LIKELY
POPS IN THIS AREA BUT IF TRENDS WERE TO CONTINUE COULD SEE THE
NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH. WITH WEAKER MOIST ADVECTION
OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM DO THINK HIGHER MOISTURE AND
ANY INSTABILITY WILL STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. HAVE
EXCLUDED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
MONITORING FOR THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA IN THE EVENING...AND THEN WITH DRY
CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO
START THE WORK WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND LIKELY INTO MIDWEEK...BUT
WITH A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
WEDNESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO IOWA BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND WILL BE
SHIFTING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH THROUGH THE DAY TO ALLOW LAKE INFLUENCES TO TAKE OVER
TURNING WINDS EASTERLY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY AT TIMES AT ORD/MDW AND EVENTUALLY DPA. GYY IS A
BIT MORE OF A WILDCARD AND MAY STAY EAST TO SOUTHEAST THOUGH A
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST MAY BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH
VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE. WINDS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
BACK TO SOUTHEAST MID TO LATE EVENING THEN TURN SOUTH SUNDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN. ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
250 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO IOWA BY THIS EVENING THEN MEANDER
EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES INTO MONDAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BETWEEN SOUTH AND
EAST BEFORE A STEADIER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THEN NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
AS WELL. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW ENDS UP
TRACKING AS WELL AS WHERE IT STARTS TO DEEPEN AS THIS MAY CAUSE
ISSUES WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEED DETAILS FOR SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT
EXPECT THE LOW TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN OR EVEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE LAKE THEN DEEPEN FURTHER TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD KEEP
WIND SPEEDS CLOSER TO 20 KTS SUNDAY EVENING BEHIND THE LOW BUT A
QUICKER DEEPENING WOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT HIGHER SPEEDS.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS MONDAY BRINGING DECREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND A MORE VARIABLE DIRECTION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY SETTING UP A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND. ANOTHER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN
LAKES INTO THURSDAY WITH DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW STRONG IT WILL BE
AND WHERE IT TRACKS. REGARDLESS...FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD RESULT WITH THE STABLE MARINE LAYER KEEPING GUST SPEEDS TO
A MINIMUM CLOSE TO THE LAKE SURFACE. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE
THE PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOWEVER AS THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE ON THE STRONG SIDE AND GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
256 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
Quiet weather is expected across central and southeast Illinois
today. High pressure will continue to pull away from the area, while
a slow moving storm system approaches from the plains. Southerly low-
level flow between these two features will push temperatures warmer
than they were yesterday, with most areas topping out in the lower
60s. The local airmass will remain too dry to support any rain today
from the approaching system, but periods of filtered sunshine can be
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
Upper level feature of interest for the weekend is currently
centered over northern Utah, per water vapor satellite imagery. This
will stretch out into a shortwave and track southeast into the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandles by early Sunday morning, before moving
through Illinois Sunday evening. Have backed off some on Saturday
night PoP`s, limiting the slight chances to areas along and west of
the Illinois River after midnight with the drier air in place
initially. Timing on Sunday is a bit more of a challenge, though.
The NAM is on the slower side and keeps a large part of the area dry
through midday, while the GFS and ECMWF are a bit faster. The high-
resolution ARW/NMM are fastest and have almost the entire CWA dry by
mid afternoon. Each is indicating only about a 4-6 hour period with
the highest rain chances, but high enough that likely PoP`s will be
included everywhere (mainly west of I-55 in the morning and east in
the afternoon). Will maintain some chance PoP`s across the east into
evening, until the wave fully passes.
Quiet weather on tap for Monday and Tuesday, as high pressure slowly
builds eastward across the Midwest. Some upper level ridging over
the central U.S. will help temperatures rise into the 60s both days.
As this occurs, an upper low will cut off over the Nevada/Utah area.
Longer range models are a bit split as to how this feature will
interact with a shortwave dropping south through the Canadian
prairies. The ECMWF maintains these as two distinct features until
the Canadian wave digs south and absorbs it on Thursday, while the
GFS draws the energy into the northern wave about 24 hours earlier.
This results in the latter model being a lot stronger with the
development of a surface cyclone over the central Plains. This would
have more of a thunder threat for our area, along with rain moving
out by Thursday morning, while the slower ECMWF focuses more on a
Thursday night through Friday evening period for the rain. Continued
with the highest PoP`s Wednesday night and kept chance PoP`s into
Thursday in most areas except the far west.
Trend late week will be toward a cooler pattern, the core of which
will arrive next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2016
High surface pressure will continue to depart farther away to the
east the rest of tonight. Cirrus clouds are already overspreading
Illinois, with mid clouds in the 10K-12K layer are approaching
from the west. The HRRR and RAP models both show limited potential
for any measurable rainfall near the TAF sites tomorrow. PIA would
have the best chances, but even there looks primarily dry. Will
keep conditions VFR over the next 24 hours.
Southeast winds will begin to increase to 10-14kt in the 15-17z
time frame as the surface pressure gradient tightens ahead of the
next low pressure system. Forecast soundings indicate mid clouds
will increase again later Saturday evening, but better chances of
rainfall look to be delayed until after 12z on Sunday.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1250 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
900 PM CDT
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR OR AROUND
FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST WE
WILL MAINTAIN A WIND COMPONENT WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. AS
MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS
TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH THE SURFACE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH...WHICH OTHER THAN SOME SPRINKLES OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL IL...SATURDAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...
136 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA. THIS
LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ALLOW TO WINDS TO SHIFT
EASTERLY ALONG AND NEAR THE LAKE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...ALOFT
MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS HAS BEEN MAIN SUNNY TODAY...LOWER CLOUDS
AROUND 2,000 FEET AGL HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MY SOUTHEASTERN CWA...MAINLY NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S...IT
APPEARS A MUCH MILDER DAY WILL BE SETTING UP ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP
OUT NEAR 60 SOUTH...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MIDDLE 40S NEAR THE LAKE DUE TO A PERSISTENT ONSHORE
WIND. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. SO...SKIES LOOK TO BE PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
DAY...AS IT APPEARS THE RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
242 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE FIRST LOW MOVES OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN TO THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FEATURE MINIMAL SATURATION INITIALLY SO
THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER AND COLD FRONT SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE EURO IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THE NAM ALSO FEATURES A SLOWER PROGRESSION. THINKING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH CAPE VALUES LESS
THAN 50 J/KG FROM THE TYPICALLY OVERDONE NAM. THUNDER APPEARS TO BE
A BETTER BET SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL
INDIANA.
HIGH TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL TO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER NW INDIANA. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
THINKING PRECIP WILL DIMINISH BEFORE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING SO DO
NOT HAVE ANY FROZEN PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM FEATURES A FEW
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FEATURE VERY SHALLOW
SATURATION SO DID NOT INCLUDE THESE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE WEAK AND VARIABLE MONDAY WITH A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS SHOULD
EASILY WARM INTO THE MID 50S EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE LAKE. 60S ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM FORMS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WHILE WE ARE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.
OTHER SPECIFICS LIKE HOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE WEDNESDAY DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. DECIDED TO BUMP UP WIND GUSTS TO 30-35
MPH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE GFS LOW...BUT DID SO WITH RESTRAINT DUE
TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT BEST. WEDNESDAY DOES LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST
DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
OVERHEAD. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ON BECAUSE
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. IT COULD FORCE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS IT ROTATES THROUGH. COLDER CONDITIONS DO LOOK
LIKELY FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AND COOLER UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVE OVERHEAD.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO IOWA BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND WILL BE
SHIFTING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH THROUGH THE DAY TO ALLOW LAKE INFLUENCES TO TAKE OVER
TURNING WINDS EASTERLY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY AT TIMES AT ORD/MDW AND EVENTUALLY DPA. GYY IS A
BIT MORE OF A WILDCARD AND MAY STAY EAST TO SOUTHEAST THOUGH A
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST MAY BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH
VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE. WINDS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
BACK TO SOUTHEAST MID TO LATE EVENING THEN TURN SOUTH SUNDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN. ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
242 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT FLOW AT THE SURFACE. A WEAK
LAKE BREEZE HAS FORMED AND PUSHED WELL INLAND. WINDS BECOME SOUTH
AND INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WHILE THE
WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE BECOME SOUTHEAST TO 15 KT. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST 10-20 KT ACROSS THE LAKE BY SATURDAY EVENING. A
WEAK LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST/NORTH TO 20 KT BEHIND IT SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE MONDAY WITH WEAK AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS
THE LAKE. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE BEHIND
THE HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT LOW FORMS OVER THE PLAINS.
GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE NEXT LOWS STRENGTH. THE
GFS FEATURES A 28.8 INCH LOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A 29.2 INCH LOW
BOTH OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. RAISED WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE LAKE TO 30 KT THURSDAY AND TO GALES OVER THE NORTHERN END
OF THE LAKE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1127 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2016
Forecast grids looking on track as low pressure slides east
tonight and tomorrow. Mid and high clouds are expected to increase
later tonight as the next low pressure system approaches the
western Great Lakes. Despite the increasing clouds, low temps
should bottom out near seasonal normals in the mid to upper 30s.
A few sprinkles may develop from time to time west of I-55,
however, most areas will remain dry. Rain chances still look to be
increasing quickly Easter Sunday morning west of I-55, then
progressing eastward through the day.
Only minor updates this evening were to the sky grids. Updated
forecast info is already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2016
High pressure ridge currently stretching from the lower Mississippi
River Valley up into the Great Lakes will maintain control over the
region for the overnight hours. As the axis slips to the east,
increasingly south/southeasterly winds will increase towards
sunrise, but staying light overall. Clearing cu from this afternoon
will leave some remnant low level moisture that may result in some
low level clouds in the east, but for the most part, the sky will be
dominated with some thin cirrus from the SW. Quiet tonight, and
chilly, but not quite as cold.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2016
Models still not handling the Easter Sunday system very well, though
all of them keep most of the pcpn with the first wave Sat afternoon
and evening west of the CWA. The handling of the main wave, on
Sunday, still has the ECMWF and NAM similar, as the GFS is little
further east and quicker with pushing the pcpn through. So, will
continue with a ECMWF/NAM type blend with this forecast, which
should look similar to previous forecasts. So, will have a slight
chance of showers Sat night in the west half of the CWA and then
likely for Sunday. With all models going with an open-wave Sunday,
believe isolated thunderstorms over the whole area is possible. With
going with the NAM/ECMWF models, pcpn will remain possible Sun night
with highest pops in the east during the evening. Pcpn will then
quickly pus east late Sun night. All pcpn should be liquid given
that colder air will not arrive til probably after the pcpn is
gone...so no snow in this forecast.
After a dry period from Mon night through Tue, another weather
system is forecast to move into the area for mid week.
ECMWF/GFS/Canadian differ on onset/timing of pcpn and the associated
synoptic pattern, so will just go with the blend of the extended
models, hoping they will come into better agreement later.
Temps will be around normal this weekend, with coldest lows Sun
night/Mon morning. However, warmer/slightly above normal temps can
be expected next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2016
High surface pressure will continue to depart farther away to the
east the rest of tonight. Cirrus clouds are already overspreading
Illinois, with mid clouds in the 10K-12K layer are approaching
from the west. The HRRR and RAP models both show limited potential
for any measurable rainfall near the TAF sites tomorrow. PIA would
have the best chances, but even there looks primarily dry. Will
keep conditions VFR over the next 24 hours.
Southeast winds will begin to increase to 10-14kt in the 15-17z
time frame as the surface pressure gradient tightens ahead of the
next low pressure system. Forecast soundings indicate mid clouds
will increase again later Saturday evening, but better chances of
rainfall look to be delayed until after 12z on Sunday.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
248 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
Forecast issues focus on the current changing conditions,
including cold air advection over the area and the advancing upper
shortwave over southwest Colorado at this time. Although
temperatures have increased into the 40s where stratus has mixed
out, little more gain in temperature is expected this afternoon
as north winds/cold advection is discounting insolation. 88D
reflectivity return echos from central CO into Syracuse-Scott City
region, appears to be giving credibility to the last NAM runs and
this solution was generally followed to adjust short term into
tonight POP forecasts. QPF on the order of a tenth of an inch is
possible across the southern counties laster tonight in the
overnight. The convective allowing models` reflectivity output
has suggested a corridor of better likely rain/snow developments
across the extreme southeast, and the area of the wildfire during
the middle of the overnight.
Sunday should bring less cloud cover and lighter north/westerly
winds owing to the broad high pressure over the plains and
mountain region. Highs should rebound to near 60 degrees based on
model consensus.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
Slightly more mild lows are expected by monday morning. A mid
level ridge develops behind the exiting system heading into early
next week. Monday through Wednesday present at minimum elevated
fire danger environments, and potential red flag set ups, with
Tuesday being the warmest and most likely as highs soar toward
the 80s. The next pattern shift/cooldown look like late Wednesday
into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
Immediate concern was on the duration of a narrow band of MVFR
stratus located just behind the surface cold front, affecting HYS
and DDC. Models like HRRR and short term blends do not hold on to
the cover long as drier air/downslope overcomes the area, however
they seem to be having problems with the stratus farther
northwest. TAFs may need to be adjusted to have stratus much
longer through the first 6 hours if the coverage doesn`t start
trending downward. Rain or snow showers are possible at DDC/GCK
after 06 UTC as a sharp upper wave rotates into Oklahoma.
Afternoon terminal amendments are likely.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 58 35 72 / 30 10 0 0
GCK 26 60 33 77 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 25 58 35 76 / 60 0 0 0
LBL 29 59 36 76 / 50 0 0 0
HYS 26 61 33 72 / 10 10 0 0
P28 32 59 34 68 / 70 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
120 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
...UPDATED AVIATION TERMINALS...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
Water vapor imagery shows an trough upstream. This feature will swing
through the region late tonight. Models continue the QPF trend of shifting
the heavier precipitation axis farther south. Have the highest pops
along the Oklahoma border. A tenth or two is possible near the state
line. As with the lower precipitation amounts comes lower snow
amounts. Models are trending warmer too with the thermodynamics,
so that will cut down snow totals as well. Have around half an
inch to one inch along the state line and the surrounding
counties. Otherwise, today will be colder in the wake of a front
with highs in the 50s. Lows will be mainly in the 20s, save south-
central Kansas were readings will be a few degrees warmer.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
The precip will quickly taper off to the south by early Sunday afternoon.
There will be weak southwesterly flow, and thus highs should moderate
to around 60 degrees. On Monday, the warm air advection strengthens
significantly with a downslope plume developing. Upper 70s to around
80 degrees will be possible in the western zones. On Tuesday, a lee
low deepens with a continued waa pattern. The warm plume advects east
and temperatures will respond by topping out a few degrees higher. Have
pops capped as it seems the atmosphere will be capped as well Tuesday
evening. A slight better chance for thunderstorms across south-central
Kansas is possible Wednesday night as lift associated with a passing
wave/front increases. The front looks fairly strong so most of the convection
could remain out of the area entirely. There may be light showers in
the wake up north. During this period, there probably will be fire weather
concerns west of the front/dryline. Beyond this, a dry forecast is expected
with moderating temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
Immediate concern was on the duration of a narrow band of MVFR
stratus located just behind the surface cold front, affecting HYS
and DDC. Models like HRRR and short term blends do not hold on to
the cover long as drier air/downslope overcomes the area, however
they seem to be having problems with the stratus farther
northwest. TAFs may need to be adjusted to have stratus much
longer through the first 6 hours if the coverage doesn`t start
trending downward. Rain ior snow showers are possible at DDC/GCK
after 06 UTC as a sharp upper wave rotates into Oklahoma.
Afternoon terminal amendments are likely.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 58 35 72 / 30 10 0 0
GCK 26 60 33 77 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 25 58 35 76 / 60 0 0 0
LBL 29 59 36 76 / 50 0 0 0
HYS 26 61 33 72 / 10 10 0 0
P28 32 59 34 68 / 70 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1056 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
CONTINUING TO MONITOR AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KY...MAKING THEIR WAY INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA.AT
THIS POINT...THE LINE HAS LOST MOST OF ITS FORMATION AND ANY CELLS
SEEM TO BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND. NOT TO SAY WE MAY NOT SEE AN
ISOLATED STRONG CELL MOVE INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING STILL...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE UNFAVORABLE. DID
ANOTHER UPDATE TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
ONGOING RADAR TRENDS...AND WHAT IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA. ALSO LOADED
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS INTO
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST GRIDS TO MAKE SURE THEY WERE ON PAR WITH
ONGOING CONDITIONS. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO
NDFD AND THE WEB. HWO SEEMS TO STILL BE IN DECENT SHAPE...THOUGH
IF STORMS CONTINUE THEIR DIMINISHING TREND WE MAY NEED TO REMOVE
SMALL HAIL WORDING. ZFP IS STILL VALID.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 908 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MADE A FEW UPDATES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER TIMING FOR OUR
CWA...BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HI RES MODEL
OUTPUT. OVERALL POPS ARE STILL VERY WELL ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HOWEVER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP UP
AHEAD WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE CWA. AS SUCH...UPGRADED MUCH
OF THE CWA TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...THEN BLENDED INTO ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE REGION. WEATHER GRIDS
WERE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE INCOMING
PRECIPITATION IN CASE ANY FURTHER UPDATES ARE NEEDED. SHORT TERM
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. A NEW ZONE
FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT TO TAKE OUT EARLY EVENING WORDING...AS WELL
AS CAPTURE THE UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS. ALSO SENT OUT A NEW HWO TO
REMOVE AFTER 9PM WORDING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN OHIO VALLEY WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT RACING
EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE
DRIVER OF STORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...WELL AHEAD THE BOUNDARY...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WHILE THICK CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
CLOUDS LIMITED THE TEMP RISE SOMEWHAT IN THE EAST WITH SOME MID
TO UPPER 60S NOTED WHILE IN THE WEST AND NORTH READINGS REACHED
INTO THE 70S THANKS TO THINNER CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE ARE
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...CONTINUING THEIR CLIMB AS THE AIR
MASS MOISTENS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM...AND ALSO ADDING TO
THE BUILDING INSTABILITY AS OF MID AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY
PASSING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WHILE A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON ITS WAY
NORTHEAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
THE OTHER MODELS WITH MUCH BETTER CLUSTERING NOTED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES.
EVEN SO...THIS WILL PROVIDE A DYNAMIC PUNCH TO ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
BLEND FOR WX DETAILS...WITH A SIGNIFICANT LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND
NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE A LATE SPRING EVENING AS AN APPROACHING
FRONT LIKELY BRINGS STORMS TO THE AREA...CROSSING FROM WEST TO
EAST TOWARD...AND JUST AFTER...MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA IS MAXIMIZING
ITS CAPE AND DESTABILIZING. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED TO ACTIVATE THIS POTENTIAL AND THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
WELL AFTER SUNSET AND INTO FALLING INSTABILITY. WHEN THE FRONT
DOES ARRIVE...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ACCOMPANY IT
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...DUE TO THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS
THE MAIN THREATS. WILL BRING THIS FRONT THROUGH IN THE GRIDS WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS AND A QUICK DIMINISHMENT ON ITS BACKSIDE ALONG
WITH AN END TO THE STORM THREAT POST FROPA. CAA FOLLOWS THROUGH
DAWN AND THEN LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER DURING THE DAY MONDAY
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME PATCHY
FROST ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES THAT CLEAR OUT EARLIER
IN THE NIGHT AND FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN A CAA PATTERN.
AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE WET MOS NUMBERS TONIGHT AND
SIMILARLY LOW THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND SURFACE HIGH PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MORNINGS WILL START OFF
COOL WITH FROST BEING A POTENTIAL CONCERN...BUT WE MAKE UP FOR IT
WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE A
AMPLIFIED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL TRY TO MOVE EAST...AND WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS IT DOES. WHILE THIS TAKES PLACE A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AND EJECT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND PHASING
DIFFERENCES OVERALL MODELS SEEM TO BE MATCHING UP WELL FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WE GET CAUGHT IN CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE SPOKES RIDING AROUND A DEEPER LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AND THIS WILL FURTHER ENFORCE THE COLD AIR ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. RIGHT NOW THIS FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...AND THE MODEL BLEND KEEPS IT DRY ON SUNDAY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVES TO KEEP THE END OF THE
WEEK COOL WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY AND
BY SUNDAY SOME MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS LINE HAVE LED TO MVFR
CIGS AT KSME AND KLOZ...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE ADVECTING EASTWARD
INTO THE OTHER TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN KY...AS WELL AS LATEST HI RES
DATA...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER SHOULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN TAF
SITES AFTER 3Z...THEN TO KSYM AND KJKL AFTER 5Z. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE SO KEPT VCSH
MENTION FOR THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE MVFR CIGS...MVFR
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...CIGS WILL REMAIN AT MVFR...AND POSSIBLY
IFR...THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THE LOWER CIGS MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL IN THE MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT SOME VCSH IN
THE TAFS FOR THIS. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING
AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TRANSITION TO THE WEST FOLLOWING FROPA...AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FROPA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
909 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MADE A FEW UPDATES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER TIMING FOR OUR
CWA...BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HI RES MODEL
OUTPUT. OVERALL POPS ARE STILL VERY WELL ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HOWEVER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP UP
AHEAD WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE CWA. AS SUCH...UPGRADED MUCH
OF THE CWA TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...THEN BLENDED INTO ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE REGION. WEATHER GRIDS
WERE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE INCOMING
PRECIPITATION IN CASE ANY FURTHER UPDATES ARE NEEDED. SHORT TERM
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. A NEW ZONE
FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT TO TAKE OUT EARLY EVENING WORDING...AS WELL
AS CAPTURE THE UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS. ALSO SENT OUT A NEW HWO TO
REMOVE AFTER 9PM WORDING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN OHIO VALLEY WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT RACING
EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE
DRIVER OF STORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...WELL AHEAD THE BOUNDARY...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WHILE THICK CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
CLOUDS LIMITED THE TEMP RISE SOMEWHAT IN THE EAST WITH SOME MID
TO UPPER 60S NOTED WHILE IN THE WEST AND NORTH READINGS REACHED
INTO THE 70S THANKS TO THINNER CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE ARE
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...CONTINUING THEIR CLIMB AS THE AIR
MASS MOISTENS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM...AND ALSO ADDING TO
THE BUILDING INSTABILITY AS OF MID AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY
PASSING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WHILE A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON ITS WAY
NORTHEAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
THE OTHER MODELS WITH MUCH BETTER CLUSTERING NOTED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES.
EVEN SO...THIS WILL PROVIDE A DYNAMIC PUNCH TO ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
BLEND FOR WX DETAILS...WITH A SIGNIFICANT LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND
NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE A LATE SPRING EVENING AS AN APPROACHING
FRONT LIKELY BRINGS STORMS TO THE AREA...CROSSING FROM WEST TO
EAST TOWARD...AND JUST AFTER...MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA IS MAXIMIZING
ITS CAPE AND DESTABILIZING. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED TO ACTIVATE THIS POTENTIAL AND THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
WELL AFTER SUNSET AND INTO FALLING INSTABILITY. WHEN THE FRONT
DOES ARRIVE...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ACCOMPANY IT
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...DUE TO THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS
THE MAIN THREATS. WILL BRING THIS FRONT THROUGH IN THE GRIDS WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS AND A QUICK DIMINISHMENT ON ITS BACKSIDE ALONG
WITH AN END TO THE STORM THREAT POST FROPA. CAA FOLLOWS THROUGH
DAWN AND THEN LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER DURING THE DAY MONDAY
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME PATCHY
FROST ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES THAT CLEAR OUT EARLIER
IN THE NIGHT AND FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN A CAA PATTERN.
AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE WET MOS NUMBERS TONIGHT AND
SIMILARLY LOW THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND SURFACE HIGH PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MORNINGS WILL START OFF
COOL WITH FROST BEING A POTENTIAL CONCERN...BUT WE MAKE UP FOR IT
WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE A
AMPLIFIED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL TRY TO MOVE EAST...AND WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS IT DOES. WHILE THIS TAKES PLACE A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AND EJECT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND PHASING
DIFFERENCES OVERALL MODELS SEEM TO BE MATCHING UP WELL FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WE GET CAUGHT IN CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE SPOKES RIDING AROUND A DEEPER LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AND THIS WILL FURTHER ENFORCE THE COLD AIR ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. RIGHT NOW THIS FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...AND THE MODEL BLEND KEEPS IT DRY ON SUNDAY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVES TO KEEP THE END OF THE
WEEK COOL WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY AND
BY SUNDAY SOME MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS LINE HAVE LED TO MVFR
CIGS AT KSME AND KLOZ...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE ADVECTING EASTWARD
INTO THE OTHER TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN KY...AS WELL AS LATEST HI RES
DATA...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER SHOULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN TAF
SITES AFTER 3Z...THEN TO KSYM AND KJKL AFTER 5Z. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE SO KEPT VCSH
MENTION FOR THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE MVFR CIGS...MVFR
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...CIGS WILL REMAIN AT MVFR...AND POSSIBLY
IFR...THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THE LOWER CIGS MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL IN THE MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT SOME VCSH IN
THE TAFS FOR THIS. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING
AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TRANSITION TO THE WEST FOLLOWING FROPA...AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FROPA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
801 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN OHIO VALLEY WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT RACING
EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE
DRIVER OF STORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...WELL AHEAD THE BOUNDARY...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WHILE THICK CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
CLOUDS LIMITED THE TEMP RISE SOMEWHAT IN THE EAST WITH SOME MID
TO UPPER 60S NOTED WHILE IN THE WEST AND NORTH READINGS REACHED
INTO THE 70S THANKS TO THINNER CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE ARE
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...CONTINUING THEIR CLIMB AS THE AIR
MASS MOISTENS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM...AND ALSO ADDING TO
THE BUILDING INSTABILITY AS OF MID AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY
PASSING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WHILE A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON ITS WAY
NORTHEAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
THE OTHER MODELS WITH MUCH BETTER CLUSTERING NOTED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES.
EVEN SO...THIS WILL PROVIDE A DYNAMIC PUNCH TO ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
BLEND FOR WX DETAILS...WITH A SIGNIFICANT LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND
NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE A LATE SPRING EVENING AS AN APPROACHING
FRONT LIKELY BRINGS STORMS TO THE AREA...CROSSING FROM WEST TO
EAST TOWARD...AND JUST AFTER...MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA IS MAXIMIZING
ITS CAPE AND DESTABILIZING. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED TO ACTIVATE THIS POTENTIAL AND THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
WELL AFTER SUNSET AND INTO FALLING INSTABILITY. WHEN THE FRONT
DOES ARRIVE...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ACCOMPANY IT
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...DUE TO THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS
THE MAIN THREATS. WILL BRING THIS FRONT THROUGH IN THE GRIDS WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS AND A QUICK DIMINISHMENT ON ITS BACKSIDE ALONG
WITH AN END TO THE STORM THREAT POST FROPA. CAA FOLLOWS THROUGH
DAWN AND THEN LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER DURING THE DAY MONDAY
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME PATCHY
FROST ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES THAT CLEAR OUT EARLIER
IN THE NIGHT AND FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN A CAA PATTERN.
AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE WET MOS NUMBERS TONIGHT AND
SIMILARLY LOW THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND SURFACE HIGH PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MORNINGS WILL START OFF
COOL WITH FROST BEING A POTENTIAL CONCERN...BUT WE MAKE UP FOR IT
WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE A
AMPLIFIED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL TRY TO MOVE EAST...AND WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS IT DOES. WHILE THIS TAKES PLACE A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AND EJECT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND PHASING
DIFFERENCES OVERALL MODELS SEEM TO BE MATCHING UP WELL FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WE GET CAUGHT IN CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE SPOKES RIDING AROUND A DEEPER LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AND THIS WILL FURTHER ENFORCE THE COLD AIR ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. RIGHT NOW THIS FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...AND THE MODEL BLEND KEEPS IT DRY ON SUNDAY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVES TO KEEP THE END OF THE
WEEK COOL WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY AND
BY SUNDAY SOME MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS LINE HAVE LED TO MVFR
CIGS AT KSME AND KLOZ...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE ADVECTING EASTWARD
INTO THE OTHER TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN KY...AS WELL AS LATEST HI RES
DATA...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER SHOULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN TAF
SITES AFTER 3Z...THEN TO KSYM AND KJKL AFTER 5Z. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE SO KEPT VCSH
MENTION FOR THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE MVFR CIGS...MVFR
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...CIGS WILL REMAIN AT MVFR...AND POSSIBLY
IFR...THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THE LOWER CIGS MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL IN THE MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT SOME VCSH IN
THE TAFS FOR THIS. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING
AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TRANSITION TO THE WEST FOLLOWING FROPA...AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FROPA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
336 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS AND FOG OR DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.
SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR THIS EVENING AND THEN MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POTENTIAL SOME LLVL MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION LATER TONIGHT W/SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING. BLYR WINDS GO
SE WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT IS MORE SSW WHICH IS A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS
TO TAKE PLACE. BUFKIT DATA ALSO SHOWING FOG OR DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
W/THE HRRR 3KM AND WRF SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS. AFTER FURTHER
COLLABORATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO CARRY PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT
AFTER SUNSET W/DRIER AIR IN PLACE AS READINGS WILL BE DOWN TO MID
TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CAP A FURTHER DROP IN THE TEMPS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL HANG ON FOR A WHILE DURING THE MORNING ON
EASTER SUNDAY AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST THE COAST AS SSE WINDS PICK
UP TO AROUND 10 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO CUT DOWN ON TEMPS RISING DUE
TO THE FLOW OFF THE COLDER GULF OF MAINE WATERS. AS A MATTER OF
FACT, NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE A TAD WARMER ESPECIALLY IF SOME SUN
APPEARS. ALL THIS DESPITE SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO HANG ON TO CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
ANOTHER INTERESTING THING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE TO SET UP
LATE IN THE DAY AS EVIDENT FROM THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT
PROFILES. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION AIDING IN THE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE
DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SITUATED. CARRIED PATCHY WORDING FOR
NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
FIRST CONCERN BEFORE THE STORM REALLY MOVES IN IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATESHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. LOOKS JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH MANY
AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE, BUT THE MOISTURE NOT
BEING DEEP ENOUGH TO TAP A LEVEL COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL
FORMATION.
THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARD A POTENT SYSTEM BEGINNING MONDAY.
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH THE STORM. MAIN ISSUE IS HOW
FAST THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER SHIFTS FROM BEING THE ONE WEST OF
QUEBEC CITY TO THE ONE IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FASTER THE
TRANSFER OF ENERGY OCCURS, THE QUICKER OUR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.
GFS HAS BEEN SLOWER ON THE TRANSFER, ALTHOUGH ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SEEM TO BE FASTER ON THE TRANSFER. ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND
NAM ARE A BIT FASTER ON THE TRANSFER, AND I TEND TO FAVOR A
FASTER TRANSFER OF ENERGY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A FASTER
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MONDAY EVENING.
BEST GUESS FORECAST AT THIS TIME IS FOR MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH EXTREME NORTHERN MAINE MAY MIX AT TIMES. THEN
A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY TO SNOW MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
MAINE MONDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDY AND COLDER TUESDAY. FIRST GUESS AT SNOW AMOUNTS IS FOR 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE NORTH, THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS THE FURTHER NORTH YOU
GO. THESE AMOUNTS ARE OF COURSE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...MUCH
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH COOLER...
THEREFORE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. SATURDAY
IS FORECAST TO BE CLOUDY...COOLER WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/MVFR AND POSSIBLE
IFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD
HANG ON THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING.
SHORT TERM: IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. WIDESPREAD IFR CONTINUING MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
ENTIRE AREA, GENERALLY FALLING AS RAIN MONDAY THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT WINDY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA CANCELLED W/WINDS AND SEAS DOWN TO 15 KTS AND 4 FT
RESPECTIVELY. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD RIGHT INTO EASTER
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: PERHAPS SOME MIN LEVEL SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS LATE
MONDAY. STRONGER OFFSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1228 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1228 AM UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HOLDING TIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A P/CLOUDY SKY DOWNEAST.
SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE OUT OF THE
STRATUS, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP TOWARD MORNING. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE MIDNIGHT
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STAYED WITH THE HRRR 3KM AND GEM MODEL
BLEND FOR PRECIP AND TEMPS FOR THIS PACKAGE. ADDITIONAL ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THE ICING THREAT WILL END BY EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRES PULLS
TOWARD NEW BRUNSWICK W/SOME SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS COLD AIR MOVES
IN AT MID LEVELS. LLVLS WILL COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. NNW WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW BRUNSWICK W/SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE NO MORE THAN 1/2 INCH. TEMPS WILL FALL
BACK W/SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS READINGS HIT THE MID AND
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME RE-FREEZING OF SURFACES OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC ON
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING, BUT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. THIS
BEING BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEEP LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER
MOVING ON-SHORE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE ON THE COAST AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF ICE PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE INCREASE TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING AS NEXT WEATHER MAKER
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. A SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO A LOW DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...WHICH COULD SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASE THE RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WIND SPEEDS. THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW BUT THE SREF/NAM/EC/CMC
ALL HAVE THE COASTAL LOW BECOMING THE PRIMARY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE QPF FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND WET SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN SUGGEST A WET SNOW EVENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IT WILL BE ABOVE 10 DEGREES COLDER ON TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SHOULD
BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. NOT SO SURE
ABOUT NORTHERN MAINE AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FOR CAR, PQI AND HUL THROUGH
AROUND 05Z SAT LIFTING TO LOW MVFR BY 12Z. MVFR CIGS AT FVE WILL
BECOME VFR BY 12Z. IFR CIGS AT BGR AND BHB HAVE SCATTERED OUT TO
LOW MVFR OR VFR. EXPECT THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. VFR ALL TERMINALS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM QUEBEC.
SHORT TERM: LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER EXPECTED BY SUNDAY WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME IFR CEILINGS. CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CANCELLED SCA AS SEAS ARE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS ARE
LIGHT OUT OF THE W. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ON SATURDAY
AND WIND GUST WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA SO HAVE RE-ISSUED FOR
SAT.
SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA. WE ARE
WATCHING FOR A POSSIBLE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON
MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME ON THIS STORM.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT/DUMONT
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT/DUMONT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
701 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONE WEAKER SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS AIDED RAIN AND SOME SNOW THAT HAS SPREAD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN UPPER MI TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS OVER
MN/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO. A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING OVER
MO. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE HAS QUICKLY STREAKED NE ACROSS
SE WI...NRN LAKE MI AND INTO ERN UPPER MI...FORCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF UPPER JET EXTENDING ENE FROM THE UPPER LAKES AND CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN FGEN IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS.
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...FOCUS WILL BE ON ENDING LINGERING PCPN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN THAT HAS DEVELOPED NE INTO ERN UPPER MI MAY
BRUSH THE SE FCST AREA THRU THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE SWINGS FROM MO
ACROSS SE LWR MI. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...ARRIVAL OF DEEP
LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING AN
END TO PATCHY -RA/-SN. HOWEVER...WITH MID LEVELS GRADUALLY DRYING
OUT WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERS AT THE LOW-LEVELS...SOME
-DZ/-FZDZ MAY DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS UNDER RATHER PRONOUNCED
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC NORTHERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH CLEARING IS NOT FAR
AWAY OVER NW LAKE SUPERIOR...LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING SUGGEST AT LEAST THE NCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA WILL BE
TAPPING THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS NNE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR -DZ/-FZDZ. IT ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON ACROSS EVEN THE W...PARTICULARY IN THE FACE OF
CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOULD ANY CLEARING OCCUR OVER THE
W...RADIATIONAL FOG COULD DEVELOP. WITH MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...RAISED MINS FOR TONIGHT TO MOSTLY THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S. IF
CLOUDS BREAK OVER THE FAR W...TEMPS WILL FALL TOWARD 20F.
EXPECT ANY -DZ/-FZDZ TO START THE DAY MON TO END BY AFTN AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE THINS A BIT. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS...BUT WOULDN`T
BE SURPRISED IF SKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/E
UNDER LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THE LONGER RANGE OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF PRETTY TRANQUIL
FOLLOWED BY A MIDWEEK STORM THAT WILL FEATURE RAIN FOLLOWED BY EVEN
A LITTLE SNOW. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK LATE IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRUSHED BY A BRIEF BUT COLD SHOT OF AIR LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A SEASONABLY COLD
FROSTY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
CHANGES BEGIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. AS IT DOES...SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE
PLAINS WITH BRAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION PUSHING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S OVER THE WESTERN U.P. WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE U.P. FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ACTUAL TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE DISCREPANCIES SEEM TO HINGE ON
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. TRENDS SEEM
TO INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...AT LEAST INITIALLY
WILL NOT INTERACT AS MUCH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW LEADING
TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO
THE LAKES REGION. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH MODELS COMING INTO A BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI EXPECT ENOUGH COLD
AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN TO TRANSITIONING THE RAIN TO SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SLOPPY FEW INCHES
OF WET SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDY...COOL CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES. UPPER TROUGH AND SURGE OF COLD AIR...85H TEMPS OF -20 TO
-25C...WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATER NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SOME NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS HOWEVER SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING
THE HARSHNESS OF THE COLD SURGE AND OFFERING MORE OF A BRIEF
GLANCING BLOW WITH WARM ADVECTION RETURNING BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MOIST...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT. IMPROVEMENT TO IFR WILL OCCUR AT
KIWD AND AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MAKES
INROADS...ALL TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
WITH LOW PRES TRACKING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING...15-25KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND MON. CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING HIGH PRES
RIDGE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...WILL THEN BECOME THE RULE ACROSS THE
LAKE MON NIGHT THRU AT LEAST TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES.
SE TO S WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TUE THRU WED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF FLOW...
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...PROBABLY TO
20-30KT. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WED NIGHT AND A LOW PRES WAVE
TRACKS LONG THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND N IN THE 20-
30KT RANGE. WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE FOR AT LEAST A PART OF
THU/THU EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES WAVE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE ON FRI BEFORE A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF GALES DURING THE
DAY SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
351 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
FRONT HAS STALLED OUT THIS AFTERNOON FROM FAIRMONT...TO THE TWIN
CITIES AND HAYWARD. THIS FRONT HAS LAID DOWN THE TRACKS FOR A SFC
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG WAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY QUICKLY
MOVING NORTH ALONG THE IA/NEB BORDER. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A DECENT DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP TO THE NW SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW...WITH A BAND OF QPF NEAR A HALF INCH EXPECTED FROM
REDWOOD FALLS TO HINKLEY. AMOUNTS MORE AROUND A QUARTER INCH ARE
EXPECTED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN
WI...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY GOING TO ZERO NOT FAR FROM ALEXANDRIA.
STILL HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING ANY ADVY...AS 12Z MODELS ALONG WITH
HOURLY/3 HOURLY UPDATING CAMS ARE NOT PUTTING AS MUCH QPF BACK TO
THE WEST IN THE COLD AIR AS THEY HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 30S OUT IN WRN
MN...WITH THE MAX WET BULB ZERO LINE AT 19Z EXTENDING UP ALONG THE
MN/DAKOTAS BORDER TO THE NORTH OF FARGO. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES
OUT THE GATE WILL DELAY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...ADD IN LESS QPF
GETTING INTO THE COLD AIR...AND ITS TOUGH TO SEE HOW WE SEE MUCH
MORE THAN 1 OR 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE THEME FOR SUNDAY WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL QUICKLY
CLEAR THE WI COUNTIES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING...WHILE
CLEARING SKIES WILL BE WORKING ACROSS MINNESOTA. BY THE
AFTERNOON...THE TWIN CITIES WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH
SIMILAR SKY CONDITIONS NOT MAKING IT TO EAU CLAIRE UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THOUGH WE WILL BE SEEING SUNNY SKIES...925-850 TEMPS
BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
THERE IS A CLASSIC HIGH WAVE NUMBER SPRING PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...AND ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...THE FLOW IS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. THE RESULT WILL BE BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. EVEN WITH MODEST MIXING...HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE
LIKELY AND 60 IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON
TUESDAY IF THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER END UP REMAINING
NORTH...HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA SO CLOUDS ARE
MORE LIKELY THAN SUNSHINE. RAIN IS EXPECTED WHEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE
CYCLONE AND IS TRENDING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF NOW. THIS
MEANS THE THUNDER CHANCE IS LOWER ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF MN/WI. THE ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT BACK THU-
FRI AND MN/WI ENDS UP WITH SNOW AS A LOW FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT WITTHE ECMWF AND WE WILL NEED TO SEE A
COUPLE MORE RUNS WITH A CONSISTENT MESSAGE TO CONSIDER THIS
SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...THE 12Z GEM SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION.
FIRST WEEK OF APRIL LOOKS VERY COLD. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
PATTERN CHANGE THE PAST TWO DAYS IN THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON HAS STALLED OUT FROM FAIRMONT...TO THE TWIN
CITIES AND ON TO HAYWARD WI. SFC LOW DOWN NEAR OMAHA AT 18Z WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT NORTH TONIGHT. LARGE SHIELD OF PRECIP IS ALSO
HEADING THIS WAY...WITH TIMING OF BRINGING IT IN TO TERMINALS
BASED ON A HRRR/HOPWRF BLEND. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE
SCENE ALONG THE IA/NEB BORDER...AND EXPECT THE SAME HERE. ONLY
TERMINAL THAT IS QUESTIONABLE ABOUT GETTING PRECIP IS AXN...WHO
WILL BE NEAR THE NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP. IF AXN DOES SEE
PRECIP...-SN WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE PRIMARY P-TYPE. EVERYONE
ELSE LOOKS TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF -SN AT STC AS THE PRECIP IS MOVING OUT. NOT FAR BEHIND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CLEARING CONDITIONS AS WELL.
KMSP...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN. CURRENT TAF
SIMILAR TO GFSLAMP TIMING...THOUGH THE HRRR SAYS MSP STAYS VFR
UNTIL THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD GETS HERE AROUND 3Z. ONCE THE MAIN
BATCH OF PRECIP GETS HERE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR. ONCE THAT PRECIP GETS HERE...WILL HAVE
SEVERAL HOURS OF CONTINUOUS RAIN...WITH END TIME LOOKING TO COME
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN BELOW 017 UNTIL WE
CLEAR...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR RIGHT AROUND 18Z FROM BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE BCMG ENE 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR CHC -RA LATE. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
WED...MVFR. SHRA LIKELY WITH TSRA POSS. WINDS S 10-15 BCMG NW.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
110 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
A FEW SHOWERS...MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN WC/CENTRAL MN EARLY TODAY
WILL GIVE AWAY TO A MUCH WETTER PERIOD BY THE MID/LATE AFTN AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THIS SHORT WAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL KANSAS. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER OVER
THE PAST TWO RUNS TO INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHRA/RAIN MOVING INTO SW/SC MN BY EARLY AFTN...AND ACROSS
THE REST OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN AND INTO WC WI BY THE EARLY EVENING.
CURRENT POPS/WX REFLECT THIS CHANGE FROM HIGH CHANCE POPS EARLY...TO
CATEGORICAL BY THE AFTN/EVENING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS MPX CWA.
BASED ON THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/SFC FEATURES AND DEFORMATION ZONE
AXIS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS...HIGHEST QPF AMTS WILL BE FROM REDWOOD
FALLS...NORTHEAST TO ST. CLOUD AND MORA. THIS IS SLIGHTLY NW OF
PREVIOUS FORECASTS OF QPF AMTS AND I AM CONCERN WITH SNOWFALL AMTS
IF COLDER AIR ARRIVES EARLIER. THERE IS A MORE PRONOUNCED
DEFORMATION ZONE THEN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/EC/GEM. THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE AND THE ADDED AFFECT OF A STRONGER SHORT WAVE...MAY
LEAD TO A BETTER PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT QPF AMTS AND ASSOCIATED
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION HAS NEARLY 4 INCHES IN FAR YELLOW MEDICINE
COUNTY NEAR CANBY. WITH A SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES FROM ALEXANDRIA TO
LITTLE FALLS AND NORTH OF MORA. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF 3 INCHES
NORTH OF ONAMIA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION
OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND SFC LOW TRACK. ANY DEVIATION TO THE
TRACK OF THESE FEATURES AND THE ADDED AFFECT OF COLDER AIR...MAY
LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE ERROR IN SNOWFALL AMTS. THE ONLY PROBLEM FOR
6+ INCHES IS THE WARMER GROUND AND THE ADDED AFFECT OF RAIN BEFORE
THE TRANSITION TO SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
A TASTE OF THE CHAOS SPRINGTIME WEATHER CAN BRING IS EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH EVERYTHING FROM
THUNDERSTORMS...TO SNOW...TO TEMPERATURE SWINGS MAKING AN
APPEARANCE AT SOME POINT.
SUNDAY WILL BRING LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT GENERALLY
IN THE 40 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE...WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
MONDAY WE WILL START TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS
BUILD DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN CONUS CLOSED LOW. EXPECT
TO MIX CLOSE TO 850MB...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
50S. RIDGING BUILDS FURTHER ON TUESDAY AND WE GAIN THE ADDED
INFLUENCE OF THE A 990MB TROUGH NOSING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S BECOMING COMMON...DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE LOW TRACK ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST COMPACT AND THUS IN FAVOR
OF CONVECTIVE /THUNDERSTORM/ DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK...KEEPING US OUT OF THE WARM SECTOR AND MORE STABLE. EITHER
SOLUTION HAS US PRETTY WET...SO HIGH POPS ARE WARRANTED...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT CURRENTLY THINK THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIE MORE TO
THE SOUTH/EAST.
THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH PASS OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
WARRANTS A 20-30 POP MENTION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETREAT BACK
TOWARD NORMAL...BEFORE WHAT IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY COLD START TO
APRIL. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF NOW FORECAST H85 TEMPS OF -20C TO -25C
FOR NEXT SATURDAY. IF THE GFS HAS ITS WAY...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
NEAR RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON HAS STALLED OUT FROM FAIRMONT...TO THE TWIN
CITIES AND ON TO HAYWARD WI. SFC LOW DOWN NEAR OMAHA AT 18Z WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT NORTH TONIGHT. LARGE SHIELD OF PRECIP IS ALSO
HEADING THIS WAY...WITH TIMING OF BRINGING IT IN TO TERMINALS
BASED ON A HRRR/HOPWRF BLEND. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE
SCENE ALONG THE IA/NEB BORDER...AND EXPECT THE SAME HERE. ONLY
TERMINAL THAT IS QUESTIONABLE ABOUT GETTING PRECIP IS AXN...WHO
WILL BE NEAR THE NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP. IF AXN DOES SEE
PRECIP...-SN WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE PRIMARY P-TYPE. EVERYONE
ELSE LOOKS TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF -SN AT STC AS THE PRECIP IS MOVING OUT. NOT FAR BEHIND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CLEARING CONDITIONS AS WELL.
KMSP...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN. CURRENT TAF
SIMILAR TO GFSLAMP TIMING...THOUGH THE HRRR SAYS MSP STAYS VFR
UNTIL THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD GETS HERE AROUND 3Z. ONCE THE MAIN
BATCH OF PRECIP GETS HERE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR. ONCE THAT PRECIP GETS HERE...WILL HAVE
SEVERAL HOURS OF CONTINUOUS RAIN...WITH END TIME LOOKING TO COME
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN BELOW 017 UNTIL WE
CLEAR...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR RIGHT AROUND 18Z FROM BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE BCMG ENE 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR CHC -RA LATE. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
WED...MVFR. SHRA LIKELY WITH TSRA POSS. WINDS S 10-15 BCMG NW.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
642 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM A LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND THROUGH THE SE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LIFTS GRADUALLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE COOLER NE
FLOW ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONT. A WAVE OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE...WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE OF PCPN WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT WHEN THE LOW MOVES INTO IOWA AND SE MINNESOTA/SW
WISCONSIN.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE 30S AND 40S TODAY...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IN
THE WARM ZONE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT. THE RAP/NAM/GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP ENOUGH SATURATION THROUGH TONIGHT TO
RELIABLY FAVOR SNOW...EXCEPT WHERE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY ABOVE FREEZING TO FAVOR RAIN. MUCH OF THE
LINGERING MIDDAY VERY LIGHT PCPN WILL LIKELY BE RAIN...EXCEPT
PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE RAIN WILL
THEN TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AND NEXT WAVE OF PCPN. SOME AREAS OF
THE NORTHLAND MAY GET 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES...THE TWIN PORTS
AND CLOQUET AREAS...AND TO NEAR AITKIN.
THERE COULD BE NARROW CORRIDOR OF SLEET TONIGHT NEAR THE
STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN THE ZONES OF PREDOMINATELY RAIN AND
PREDOMINATELY SNOW. THERE COULD BE A CORRIDOR WHERE THE SNOW FALLS
THROUGH A WARM ENOUGH LAYER TO RESULT IN MELTING...THEN FALL BACK
INTO A SHALLOW COLD LAYER TO CAUSE SOME REFREEZING. HOWEVER...BASED
ON THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS...THE THREAT LOOKED TOO UNLIKELY OR TOO
NARROW IN COVERAGE TO CONSIDER ADDING THAT DETAIL TO THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT. THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE A BETTER ABILITY TO
DETERMINE ITS THREAT WHEN THE RAP AND HRRR EXTEND THROUGH
TONIGHT.
THE NE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND HIGH RELATIVELY HUMIDITY
TONIGHT...WILL LIKELY CAUSE MISTY CONDITIONS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND. FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...SUCH AS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND ASHLAND AREAS DOWNWIND AND
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
THE LOW WILL LIFT FROM WISCONSIN INTO MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THERE MAY
BE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE PCPN
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY NOON. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND IN THE WAVE OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INCREASED
TEMPERATURES...LEANING MORE ON THE WARMER NAM MOS COMPARED TO THE
COOLER GFS MOS CONSIDERING THE FAVORABILITY FOR WARMING FROM THE
SUNSHINE. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
THE FOCUS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON A STRONG EARLY
SPRING STORM MID WEEK.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL START OUT NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
NORTHLAND...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH PRECIP WITH
THESE FEATURES...BUT WE DO KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW/RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT
THEN THE MODELS MOVE IT SLOWLY EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOW AND DEEPEN A
SURFACE LOW. THE NORTHLAND WILL START TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF THESE
FEATURES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES START
SHOWING UP TUESDAY...AND INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES INCLUDE THE GFS MERGING A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON WEDNESDAY DEEPENING
THE SURFACE LOW MUCH MORE THAN THE ECMWF/GEM. ALSO AS A RESULT OF
THE DEEPER LOW...IT IS MUCH SLOWER. ALL THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN BOTH
RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE
THIS LOW. THE GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER AND A BIT WEAKER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW FROM 108-120 HOURS COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS RUNS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
MOVING THROUGH LOW THROUGH THE REGION...AS IT KEEPS THE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE SEPARATE WHICH HELPS MOVE THE LOW ALONG.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL...EVEN IN THE SHORT
TERM...BUT ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT WITH ALL THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.
WE HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF MINNESOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND OVER PARTS OF THE FAR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SNOW. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM...BUT JUST HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS
WELL. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW VERY COLD AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF SNOW OR RAIN WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL RANGE FROM VFR AT KINL TO IFR/MVFR MOST OTHER AREAS. EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...MORE RAIN
WILL OCCUR. TONIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SNOW...BUT IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO COMPLETELY SWITCH
OVER AT KHYR.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 36 28 43 27 / 70 80 20 20
INL 38 17 44 23 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 41 29 49 30 / 50 60 0 0
HYR 45 33 47 28 / 70 80 30 10
ASX 39 30 41 29 / 80 80 40 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>143-146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
356 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM A LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND THROUGH THE SE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LIFTS GRADUALLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE COOLER NE
FLOW ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONT. A WAVE OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE...WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE OF PCPN WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT WHEN THE LOW MOVES INTO IOWA AND SE MINNESOTA/SW
WISCONSIN.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE 30S AND 40S TODAY...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IN
THE WARM ZONE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT. THE RAP/NAM/GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP ENOUGH SATURATION THROUGH TONIGHT TO
RELIABLY FAVOR SNOW...EXCEPT WHERE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY ABOVE FREEZING TO FAVOR RAIN. MUCH OF THE
LINGERING MIDDAY VERY LIGHT PCPN WILL LIKELY BE RAIN...EXCEPT
PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE RAIN WILL
THEN TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AND NEXT WAVE OF PCPN. SOME AREAS OF
THE NORTHLAND MAY GET 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES...THE TWIN PORTS
AND CLOQUET AREAS...AND TO NEAR AITKIN.
THERE COULD BE NARROW CORRIDOR OF SLEET TONIGHT NEAR THE
STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN THE ZONES OF PREDOMINATELY RAIN AND
PREDOMINATELY SNOW. THERE COULD BE A CORRIDOR WHERE THE SNOW FALLS
THROUGH A WARM ENOUGH LAYER TO RESULT IN MELTING...THEN FALL BACK
INTO A SHALLOW COLD LAYER TO CAUSE SOME REFREEZING. HOWEVER...BASED
ON THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS...THE THREAT LOOKED TOO UNLIKELY OR TOO
NARROW IN COVERAGE TO CONSIDER ADDING THAT DETAIL TO THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT. THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE A BETTER ABILITY TO
DETERMINE ITS THREAT WHEN THE RAP AND HRRR EXTEND THROUGH
TONIGHT.
THE NE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND HIGH RELATIVELY HUMIDITY
TONIGHT...WILL LIKELY CAUSE MISTY CONDITIONS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND. FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...SUCH AS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND ASHLAND AREAS DOWNWIND AND
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
THE LOW WILL LIFT FROM WISCONSIN INTO MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THERE MAY
BE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE PCPN
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY NOON. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND IN THE WAVE OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INCREASED
TEMPERATURES...LEANING MORE ON THE WARMER NAM MOS COMPARED TO THE
COOLER GFS MOS CONSIDERING THE FAVORABILITY FOR WARMING FROM THE
SUNSHINE. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
THE FOCUS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON A STRONG EARLY
SPRING STORM MID WEEK.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL START OUT NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
NORTHLAND...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH PRECIP WITH
THESE FEATURES...BUT WE DO KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW/RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT
THEN THE MODELS MOVE IT SLOWLY EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOW AND DEEPEN A
SURFACE LOW. THE NORTHLAND WILL START TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF THESE
FEATURES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES START
SHOWING UP TUESDAY...AND INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES INCLUDE THE GFS MERGING A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON WEDNESDAY DEEPENING
THE SURFACE LOW MUCH MORE THAN THE ECMWF/GEM. ALSO AS A RESULT OF
THE DEEPER LOW...IT IS MUCH SLOWER. ALL THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN BOTH
RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE
THIS LOW. THE GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER AND A BIT WEAKER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW FROM 108-120 HOURS COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS RUNS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
MOVING THROUGH LOW THROUGH THE REGION...AS IT KEEPS THE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE SEPARATE WHICH HELPS MOVE THE LOW ALONG.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL...EVEN IN THE SHORT
TERM...BUT ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT WITH ALL THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.
WE HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF MINNESOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND OVER PARTS OF THE FAR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SNOW. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM...BUT JUST HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS
WELL. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW VERY COLD AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION OVERNIGHT...TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT...WITH
MAINLY SNOW OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND RAIN OR SNOW FURTHER
SOUTH. AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY INCREASES...A CHANGE TO MAINLY
SNOW WILL OCCUR. A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER ON SATURDAY WILL CAUSE
MORE RAIN TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND.
A SECONDARY WAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING LOWERING CEILINGS AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. LATEST PROFILES SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
SLEET OR BRIEF FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW DURING THE
EVENING HOURS FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY
2...INCLUDING KBRD/KDLH/KHYR. THIS WILL BE MONITORED BY LATER
SHIFTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 36 28 43 27 / 70 80 20 20
INL 38 17 44 23 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 41 29 49 30 / 50 60 0 0
HYR 45 33 47 28 / 70 80 30 10
ASX 39 30 41 29 / 80 80 40 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>143-146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
924 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...THE BOUNDARY WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WITH A LINE
OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTH MISSISSIPPI INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE POPS. THE HI RES MODELS SUGGESTED
THE RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT WOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AND
DIMINISH AS IT MOVED EAST. THE MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
IT. LEFT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AND SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE VALUES JUST TO THE SOUTH. UPDATED ZONES WERE OUT...BUT MAY DO
ANOTHER UPDATE TO REMOVE THE RAIN. ACTIVITY WAS ALREADY STRUGGLING.
COOLER AIR WAS MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS...WENT WITH THE RUC IN THE
SHORT TERM TO CAPTURE THE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WAS NOT
TOTALLY CONVINCED TEMPS WOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S BY MORNING...BUT
VALUES NEAR 50 WERE NOT TOO FAR. TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES...BUT
MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT LOWS. NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AT GLH/GWO/GTR/CBM AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE REGION...BUT A MAJOR IMPACT TO OPERATIONS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL TAKE UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW TO
CLEAR PORTIONS OF SE MS AND THEREFORE SOME IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO A COMBO OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MEI/NMM/PIB/HBG (ESPECIALLY AT HBG/PIB) THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT WORST...IMPROVING
BEFORE DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOW CEILINGS COULD HANG ON AROUND
GTR/CBM THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A S/SW TO
NW/N WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20 MPH. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 48 69 43 77 / 10 0 0 3
MERIDIAN 52 69 40 75 / 10 0 0 2
VICKSBURG 48 67 43 77 / 10 0 0 4
HATTIESBURG 57 73 47 77 / 10 0 0 5
NATCHEZ 51 67 47 77 / 10 0 0 8
GREENVILLE 44 64 43 72 / 37 0 0 3
GREENWOOD 44 66 42 74 / 48 0 0 2
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
JAN/JAN/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
340 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAD A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS OF NEBRASKA. A SECONDARY LOW WAS NOTED OVER
CENTRAL UTAH. WEST OF THE TROUGH...RIDGING EXTENDED UP THE WEST
COAST OF THE CONUS INTO NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. EAST OF THE
TROUGH....SWRLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDED EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR WESTERN IOWA...INTO
FAR SERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WERE PRESENT WEST OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER A THICK VEIL OF CLOUD COVER. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE DRY AS SNOW AND RAIN WAS JUST OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...FROM NORFOLK SE TO OMAHA AND FALLS CITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNDAY IS TEMPERATURE. A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS RESULTED IN A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK AND
BRISK NORTH WINDS...LEADING TO COLDER HIGHS THAN EXPECTED TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WERE ALSO REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... KEPT A SCHC MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN BOYD... HOLT... AND WHEELER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
PERSISTENT SNOW HAS FALLEN JUST EAST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH SOME
LIGHTER SNOW BACKING UP INTO AREAS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 281. SLOWED
THE CLEARING A COUPLE HOURS ACROSS THE WEST... BUT RECENT TRENDS IN
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AND HI RES MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL OCCUR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL LIFT
DISAPPEARING AFTER SUNSET. AN 850HPA RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS
OVERNIGHT... HELPING TO WEAKEN THE FLOW. WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT... THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE AND LEAD
TO COOLER MIN TEMPS. LOWERED A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE AREA... WHICH
FOLLOWS MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CLOSELY.
SUNDAY... RIDGES AT 500HPA AND 850HPA CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH A LULL IN THE UPPER JET. ALL MODELS SHOWING DECENT WAA
WITH H85 TEMPS AT KLBF RISING FROM AROUND 0C AT 12Z TO 7C AT 00Z.
TEMPS APPROACH 8C IN THE PANHANDLE BUT STAY AROUND 3C FAR NORTH
CENTRAL. A DOWNSLOPE REGIME WILL AID IN WARMING AND DRYING ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN MIXING TO 750HPA PER NAM SOUNDINGS... PREVIOUS
FORECAST HIGHS NEAR 60F SEEM REASONABLE SO MADE LITTLE CHANGE. THE
HIGHS ALSO AGREE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. DESPITE LOW RH IN THE
AFTERNOON... NEAR 20 PERCENT FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF HWY 83... WIND
WILL NOT SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL OFFER UP SOME DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEASONAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S...WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION EAST AS A
CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NRN UTAH AND SWRN
WYOMING. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...STRONG MID LEVEL WAA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE...WILL LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS INDICATE SOME MEAGER
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FAR EASTERN CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ALL
LIFT A DECENT AREA OF MID LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL END BRIEFLY ACROSS THE
EAST TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO SWRN NEBRASKA. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS REACHING 45 TO 50
DEGREES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WITH HEATING AND THE APPG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN CWA TUES AFTN. I DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A ERICSON TO SPRINGVIEW LINE AS THIS IS WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA...I DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHRAS
AS THESE AREAS AS THEY WILL BE INVOF OF THE H7 FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE EXTENDED PERIOD PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEYOND TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...AND A MIX
OF RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEDS
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TRACKS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ITS WAKE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT. QPF/S WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM...SO
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY DECENT SNOW ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHILE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...PRIMARILY NEAR KCDR AND
KIEN...WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS COVERING
MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL SLOWLY LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INVOF KONL AND KBBW...WILL LIKELY
STAY IN MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. BRISK NORTH WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN AROUND SUNSET AND SLOWLY TRANSITION TO WEST
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...SNIVELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1225 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
ADDED STANTON COUNTY INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. BUMPED UP
SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE EAST.
RECENT HRRR AND RUC OUTPUT AS WELL AS 12Z NAM SHOWED COLDER AIR
MOVING EWD ABOUT AS EXPECTED WITH PCPN CONTINUING INTO LATE AFTN
OR EARLY EVENING. SNOW COULD MIX IN AS FAR EAST AS OMAHA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND RAIN
FOR THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TODAY...ARE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST ARE IN ORDER THIS MORNING...AT
LEAST FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE TODAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED EMERGING THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS OF KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...AND WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA. 85KT UPPER LEVEL
JET ROUNDING BASE OF SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE WITH 80KT JET IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO PROVIDE VENTING OF UPPER LEVEL AIR OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA TODAY...WITH MODELS INDICATING STRONG POSITIVE VERTICAL
VELOCITIES IN OUR AREA. ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF THIS PROCESS
BEGINNING AS RADAR RETURNS WERE INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THAT LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
LATER THIS MORNING...WITH AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
PRECEDING LOW AND HELPING TO SATURATE MID AND LOW LAYERS. ALL THIS
POINTS TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING.
MAXIMUM LIFT AND THUS PRECIP POTENTIAL OCCURS AROUND 18Z-21Z
TIMEFRAME BEFORE SYSTEM SWINGS NORTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE RAIN AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN ON
LIQUID SIDE OF RAIN/SNOW LINE THROUGH DURATION OF PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER PROFILES TREND TOWARD SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH ONLY SURFACE LAYER REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING BY 18Z.
VARIED MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO CHANGE TO SNOW...FROM WHETHER
IT WILL CHANGE TO WHAT TIME THE CHANGE WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER GIVEN
STRONG VERTICAL VELOCITIES...EXPECT THE CHANGE TO OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A COLUMBUS TO WAYNE LINE...WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...AND
SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BOTH NEGATIVES IN
REGARDS TO SNOW ACCUMULATION. AGAIN...STRONG LIFT WILL OVERCOME
THESE NEGATIVES...BUT TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE TRICKY. GARCIA
CALCULATIONS FOR A 3 TO 6 HOUR SNOWFALL POINT TO MAX AMOUNTS NEAR
4 INCHES OVER A SMALL AREA OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. STRAIGHT MODEL
OUTPUT AND COBB METHOD WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE MORE. THINK A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS APPROPRIATE FOR THIS QUICK SHOT OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT SNOWS OVER THE SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOWS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED TO START EASTER SUNDAY...WITH LOTS OF
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WEST WINDS PUSHING HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S FOR THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO START OFF
NEXT WEEK...WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND A BACKDROP OF WARMING LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE ON TARGET FOR MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK BEFORE STRONG COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHOT AT SHOWERS OR STORMS...WITH COOLER TEMPS TO END
THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. MODELS INDICATE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST IN PHASES...WITH GFS
MORE PRONOUNCED IN TRACKING A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF ENERGY INTO THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY. ECMWF HANGS MORE ENERGY IN THE ROCKIES A LITTLE
LONGER...BUT BOTH COME AROUND TO SIMILAR PATTERNS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT WHEN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES THOUGH. WARM
ADVECTION MAY TOUCH OFF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF THAT FRONT PUTS BEST SEVERE RISK EAST
OF OUR AREA AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY.
STILL A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. COOL AIR RUSHING
IN BEHIND MAY SWITCH LINGERING SHOWERS TO SNOW IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BEFORE PRECIP ENDS THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGHS IN THE 60S OR 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO ONLY FALL TO
THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD. EXPECT MAINLY IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL PCPN ENDS LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. THEN LOOK
FOR LOW CLOUDS TO SCT OUT LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-
012-016>018-030>032-042.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1139 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SATURDAY DEALS WITH A COLD FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN RATHER
THICK THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... MAINLY CONFINED TO THE PINE RIDGE. WEAK RADAR
ECHOES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA... BUT WITH DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25F... ONLY RESULT IS VIRGA.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WORKS
TOWARD THE SURFACE. REMOVED MENTION OF SPRINKLES SOUTH OF NEB HWY 2
AS LIFT IN THE LOWER 200HPA DISAPPEARS. THROUGH 06Z... BEST
SATURATION AND LIFT EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND NORTHWEST
CHERRY COUNTIES... SO RETAINED LIKELY POPS FOR A SMALL AREA ALONG
THE SD BORDER. HRRR HINTS AT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST... SO
EXTENDED SCHC POPS SOUTH TOWARD KTIF AND EAST TOWARD KONL. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SWITCH TO SNOW AT MERRIMAN AROUND 03Z
AND VALENTINE AROUND 05Z. USED A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RA TO RASN
TO SN FROM WEST TO EAST.
SNOWFALL WISE... SOUNDINGS AT KVTN SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
BELOW 600HPA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIFT BELOW 800HPA... WHERE THE
DGZ GENERALLY LINES UP WITH 600-700HPA. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL
FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S WHICH WILL LIMIT SLR. START AROUND 10:1
FOR 06-12Z AND INCREASE TO NEAR CLIMO... 12-13:1... BY LATE MORNING.
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE AROUND 1 INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 20 WEST
OF KVTN AND A DUSTING FROM KAIA TO KONL.
HAVE WINDS PICKING UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE FROPA. NAM INDICATING
850HPA WINDS NEAR 35KTS AND A 1MB/HR PRESSURE CHANGE. MECHANICAL
FORCING WILL BRING MUCH OF THIS TO THE SURFACE AND WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. STRONG CAA IS EVIDENT WITH 850HPA
TEMPS DROPPING FROM 1C AT KLBF AT 06Z TO NEAR -5C BY 12Z. ALSO...
SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE
FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON HOW THESE FACTORS WILL BALANCE...
SO MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS. OVERALL... FORECAST LOWS ARE
VERY CLOSE TO MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY... MAX TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AS BLUSTERY NORTH
WINDS AND SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANY SUBZERO H85 TEMPS.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE GENERALLY 2-3F BELOW MOS GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 30S
NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH. NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK
LIFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY. KONL TEMP PROFILE MAINLY SUPPORTS SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON... BUT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND SFC WET BULB
ABOVE 0C... TRANSITIONED BACK TO RASN MIX.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE TAKES HOLD
ON THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST BLEND OF 4 GUIDANCE DATA
SETS PLUS BIAS CORRECTION PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SUNDAY. THE EKD...ECE...MEX GUIDANCE BLEND PLUS BIAS CORRECTION
FOR MONDAY PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FULL SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY AS SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT IN FROM A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE
WRN U.S.. WEST WINDS SUNDAY SUPPORT DEEPER MIXING THAN THE SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY. SO DESPITE THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT HIGHS MONDAY ARE FAIRLY MODEST. THE FORECAST IS DRY.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF ARCTIC AIR SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH PRODUCES LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDS TO NEAR 10C AT 850MB SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A HOT PROD REACHES INTO THE FCST AREA
TUESDAY AND H850MB TEMPERATURES SPIKE REACHING 16C TO 20C. THE GFS
IS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECM WHICH BACKS A COLD FRONT INTO NRN NEB.
A BLENDED APPROACH PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE 70S SOUTH AND 60S TO NEAR
70 NORTH.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A PIECE OF THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH
AND NRN PLAINS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL
BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NWRN NEB.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP AS A RESULT OF
THE HOT PROD TUESDAY. THE ECM AND GFS SHOW SOME SORT OF CONVECTION
FORMING AS A RESULT. MOST OF THIS IS EAST OF THE FCST AREA. THE
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH H500MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50 TO 70KT.
A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE FCST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME
AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT...500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -25C TO -30C.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE DEEP
LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATING THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO FORMING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO PULL LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS THESE DAYS MOSTLY IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S ARE BELOW NORMAL AS IS THE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM
CPC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA NEAR KCDR AND KIEN LIGHT SNOW AND IFR
CEILINGS OCCURRING. BETTER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IFR/MVFR CIGS AT KVTN AND MVFR CEILINGS AT KLBF. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KVTN...KANW...AND KONL. CEILINGS SHOULD INPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
TUESDAY COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FIRE. THE GFS AND ECM BRING A
WARM SPOKE OF DRY AIR NORTH INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
83 WHICH COULD RESULT IN HUMIDITY NEAR OR BELOW 15 PERCENT. WINDS
BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWEST IN THE WARM DRY AIR AND INCREASE TO AROUND
20 MPH IMPLYING GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE ECM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
AND DELAYS THE DRY AIR UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1002 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...DRAGGING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. A COOLING AND DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WET CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THE RADAR-OBSERVED
BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD BRINGS IT TO DARLINGTON AROUND 05Z/1
AM EDT. THIS MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE EARLIER EVENING
UPDATE AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE NEEDED. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND OUT AS FAR EAST AS BUOY
41008. THIS IMPLIES THE SURFACE LOW MAY BE TAKING A TRACK A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST FROM THE 18Z GFS/NAM CONSENSUS TRACK...AND I
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO SINCE
THIS EASTWARD TRACK SHOULD REDUCE THE INFLOW OF WARM GULF STREAM
AIR INTO COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE GEORGIA-ALABAMA BORDER WILL SWEEP
EAST TONIGHT...EXITING THE NC COAST BY DAYBREAK. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL
THE SURFACE LOW ARRIVES DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE AS GULF
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST LIFT
APPEARS TO EXIST ALONG THE 305K SURFACE...JUST BELOW 700 MB OR
10000 FEET ALOFT. IT IS ALONG THIS SURFACE THAT BOTH THE 18Z GFS
AND NAM MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINING STRONG THROUGH 2 AM
EDT...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SOLID RAINFALL.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS VERY SMALL...ON THE ORDER OF 100 J/KG.
THIS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO JUST THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MARINE FORECAST
ZONES WHERE INCREASING ADVECTION OF WARM AIR OFF THE GULF STREAM
MAY PRODUCE SLIGHTLY LARGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY LATER THIS
EVENING.
BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT OVER AN INCH
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN ALONG THE COAST...WITH TOTALS CLOSER TO
HALF AN INCH INLAND. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE SLOW-MOVING
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO
COUNTIES RIGHT NOW THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL-SCALE AREAS OF
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER AN INCH TOO.
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO
FALL TO ONLY 60 BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE ALONG
THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO INCREASING GULF STREAM
INFLUENCE AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD IS DRYING TREND AND
COOLING AS STORM SYSTEM EXITS NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. GUSTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING MONDAY ARE POSSIBLE
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES BENEATH THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. COOL
AIR WILL LAG UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
TRANSLATES TO A VERY MILD DAY MONDAY QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
MAXIMUMS 9-12 DEGREES COOLER UNDER SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING IN THE AREA
WED MORNING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LATER IN THE DAY AS
THE RIDGES MOVE OFFSHORE WILL COMMENCE OF A PERIOD OF STEADY
MOISTURE RETURN. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THU. COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND EJECT
SHORTWAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE
MID LEVEL PATTERN BUT THE GFS...WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE
FASTEST SOLUTION...CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER. CANADIAN/ECMWF/WPC
SOLUTIONS REMAIN SLOWER AND ARE FAVORED. THIS IS NOT ONLY DUE TO
THEIR AGREEMENT BUT WEAK MID LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF ALL FEATURES. POP WILL STILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THU BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE THU NIGHT AND FRI/SAT. FRONT ENDS UP
PARALLEL TO STEERING FLOW FRI/SAT WITH THE BOUNDARY SLOW TO CROSS
THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES RUN ABOVE CLIMO THU-SAT
DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE GULF COAST SAT NIGHT FINALLY PROVIDES THE KICK THE FRONT
NEEDS...USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WHILE THERE ARE POCKETS OF CONVECTION ON RADAR
PREDOMINATELY IT IS STRATIFORM RAIN AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR MOST OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL THUNDER...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST NEAR THE LOW`S TRACK. HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN AN HOUR OR
TWO...BASED MAINLY ON THE HRRR MODEL. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL BOUNCE AROUND A BIT...BUT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY IFR/LIFR. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT ON ANY DENSE FOG...MAINLY BECAUSE THE WINDS WILL
STAY AROUND 5 KTS OR BETTER. THE GFS SHUTS OFF THE MOISTURE BY
07Z...BUT THINK THIS IS A BIT FAST. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AROUND DAYBREAK WITH VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER WITH A WEST
WIND.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY MAY INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH
THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING. EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND MAY
INCREASE TO A SOLID 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE NC WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS NECESSITATES THE EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET WILL
BUILD TO 3-5 FEET DUE TO THE PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH START UNDER EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS EARLY MONDAY...BUT A NICE
IMPROVING TREND AFTER THAT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST
NEARS THE COAST...MAKING FOR NICE MARINE CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS SOUTHWARD. 3-5 FT SEAS INITIALLY
EASING TO 2 TO 4 FT DURING TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS
WED MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS AND BECOMING EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER EAST THU WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS MAY FALL
SHORT OF 25 KT THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 6
FT AND AN SCA FOR THU OR THU NIGHT SEEMS PROBABLE. FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR
20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT WAVE
HEIGHTS SOUTHEAST OF BALD HEAD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
742 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...DRAGGING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. A COOLING AND DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WET CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE GEORGIA-
ALABAMA BORDER WILL SWEEP EAST TONIGHT...EXITING THE NC COAST BY
DAYBREAK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW ARRIVES DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE AS GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO EXIST ALONG
THE 305K SURFACE...JUST BELOW 700 MB OR 10000 FEET ALOFT. IT IS
ALONG THIS SURFACE THAT BOTH THE 18Z GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINING STRONG THROUGH 2 AM EDT...LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOLID RAINFALL.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS VERY SMALL...ON THE ORDER OF 100 J/KG.
THIS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO JUST THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MARINE FORECAST
ZONES WHERE INCREASING ADVECTION OF WARM AIR OFF THE GULF STREAM
MAY PRODUCE SLIGHTLY LARGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY LATER THIS
EVENING.
BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT OVER AN INCH
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN ALONG THE COAST...WITH TOTALS CLOSER TO
HALF AN INCH INLAND. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE SLOW-MOVING
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO
COUNTIES RIGHT NOW THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL-SCALE AREAS OF
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER AN INCH TOO.
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO
FALL TO ONLY 60 BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE ALONG
THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO INCREASING GULF STREAM
INFLUENCE AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD IS DRYING TREND AND
COOLING AS STORM SYSTEM EXITS NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. GUSTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING MONDAY ARE POSSIBLE
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES BENEATH THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. COOL
AIR WILL LAG UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
TRANSLATES TO A VERY MILD DAY MONDAY QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
MAXIMUMS 9-12 DEGREES COOLER UNDER SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING IN THE AREA WED
MORNING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO. RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LATER IN THE DAY AS THE RIDGES
MOVE OFFSHORE WILL COMMENCE OF A PERIOD OF STEADY MOISTURE RETURN.
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THU.
COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD GULF
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND EJECT SHORTWAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE
5H TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE
MID LEVEL PATTERN BUT THE GFS...WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE
FASTEST SOLUTION...CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER. CANADIAN/ECMWF/WPC
SOLUTIONS REMAIN SLOWER AND ARE FAVORED. THIS IS NOT ONLY DUE TO
THEIR AGREEMENT BUT WEAK MID LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF ALL FEATURES. POP WILL STILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THU BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE THU NIGHT AND FRI/SAT. FRONT ENDS UP
PARALLEL TO STEERING FLOW FRI/SAT WITH THE BOUNDARY SLOW TO CROSS
THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES RUN ABOVE CLIMO THU-SAT
DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE GULF COAST SAT NIGHT FINALLY PROVIDES THE KICK THE FRONT
NEEDS...USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z... WHILE THERE ARE POCKETS OF CONVECTION ON RADAR
PREDOMINATELY IT IS STRATIFORM RAIN AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR
MOST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL THUNDER...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE COAST NEAR THE LOW`S TRACK. HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN AN
HOUR OR TWO...BASED MAINLY ON THE HRRR MODEL. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BOUNCE AROUND A BIT...BUT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY
IFR/LIFR. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON ANY DENSE FOG...MAINLY BECAUSE
THE WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 5 KTS OR BETTER. THE GFS SHUTS OFF
THE MOISTURE BY 07Z...BUT THINK THIS IS A BIT FAST. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY
AFTER WITH A WEST WIND.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY MAY INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING. EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY AND MAY INCREASE TO A SOLID 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE NC
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
NECESSITATES THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE. SEAS
CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET DUE TO THE PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH START UNDER EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS EARLY MONDAY...BUT A NICE
IMPROVING TREND AFTER THAT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST
NEARS THE COAST...MAKING FOR NICE MARINE CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS SOUTHWARD. 3-5 FT SEAS INITIALLY
EASING TO 2 TO 4 FT DURING TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS WED
MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS AND BECOMING EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER EAST THU WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS MAY FALL
SHORT OF 25 KT THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 6
FT AND AN SCA FOR THU OR THU NIGHT SEEMS PROBABLE. FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR
20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT WAVE
HEIGHTS SOUTHEAST OF BALD HEAD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
700 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE GULF STATES WILL DEVELOP
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW PASSES. A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE INTO MID
WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
WET CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IS WEAKENING AND RISING
DEWPOINTS ARE BEGINNING TO POOL INTO NE SC FROM THE S THROUGH SW.
THE PREVIOUSLY STALLED COASTAL FRONT IS PRESENTLY LIFTING INTO
THE INTERIOR AND CLIMBING DEWPOINT READINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED
ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR. AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THESE
TRENDS...RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE EXPANDING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE ELEVATED POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES ERODE THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE RETREATING WEDGE. LATEST QPF DATA SUGGESTS UP TO 1.5
INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR...TO 3/4 INCH OR LESS
FROM I-95 WEST.
VIGOROUS IMPULSE UPSTREAM WAS SETTING OFF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A PLUME
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS STREAMING NE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. VERY BRIEFLY IT APPEARS THE WARM SECTOR WILL
SCRAPE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AS A
DEEPENING LOW IS SPAWNED ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKS FROM S
OF CAPE FEAR AT 6Z TONIGHT...TO OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY 12Z MONDAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
DO INCREASE BEHIND THE EXITING LOW EARLY MONDAY. BY THIS TIME
HOWEVER MID LEVEL DRYING IS WORKING IN...BUT GUSTY SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD IS DRYING TREND AND
COOLING AS STORM SYSTEM EXITS NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. GUSTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING MONDAY ARE POSSIBLE
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES BENEATH THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. COOL
AIR WILL LAG UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
TRANSLATES TO A VERY MILD DAY MONDAY QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
MAXIMUMS 9-12 DEGREES COOLER UNDER SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING IN THE AREA WED
MORNING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO. RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LATER IN THE DAY AS THE RIDGES
MOVE OFFSHORE WILL COMMENCE OF A PERIOD OF STEADY MOISTURE RETURN.
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THU.
COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD GULF
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND EJECT SHORTWAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE
5H TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE
MID LEVEL PATTERN BUT THE GFS...WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE
FASTEST SOLUTION...CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER. CANADIAN/ECMWF/WPC
SOLUTIONS REMAIN SLOWER AND ARE FAVORED. THIS IS NOT ONLY DUE TO
THEIR AGREEMENT BUT WEAK MID LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF ALL FEATURES. POP WILL STILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THU BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE THU NIGHT AND FRI/SAT. FRONT ENDS UP
PARALLEL TO STEERING FLOW FRI/SAT WITH THE BOUNDARY SLOW TO CROSS
THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES RUN ABOVE CLIMO THU-SAT
DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE GULF COAST SAT NIGHT FINALLY PROVIDES THE KICK THE FRONT
NEEDS...USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z... WHILE THERE ARE POCKETS OF CONVECTION ON RADAR
PREDOMINATELY IT IS STRATIFORM RAIN AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR
MOST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL THUNDER...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE COAST NEAR THE LOW`S TRACK. HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN AN
HOUR OR TWO...BASED MAINLY ON THE HRRR MODEL. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BOUNCE AROUND A BIT...BUT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY
IFR/LIFR. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON ANY DENSE FOG...MAINLY BECAUSE
THE WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 5 KTS OR BETTER. THE GFS SHUTS OFF
THE MOISTURE BY 07Z...BUT THINK THIS IS A BIT FAST. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY
AFTER WITH A WEST WIND.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY MAY INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT WILL BE REQUIRED
OVERNIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES RIGHT UP THE CAROLINA COAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANGEABLE WINDS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED FIRST FROM
THE S THEN SHIFTING TO W INTO EARLY MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE LOW. AS
A RESULT OF THE ELEVATED WINDS SEAS WILL REACH A 3-5 FT RANGE AND
WE MAY SEE 6-7 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 2 NM AT TIMES ACCOMPANIED
BY MIST. ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH START UNDER EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS EARLY MONDAY...BUT A NICE
IMPROVING TREND AFTER THAT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST
NEARS THE COAST...MAKING FOR NICE MARINE CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS SOUTHWARD. 3-5 FT SEAS INITIALLY
EASING TO 2 TO 4 FT DURING TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS WED
MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS AND BECOMING EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER EAST THU WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS MAY FALL
SHORT OF 25 KT THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 6
FT AND AN SCA FOR THU OR THU NIGHT SEEMS PROBABLE. FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR
20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT WAVE
HEIGHTS SOUTHEAST OF BALD HEAD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS... COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WAVY FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM SATURDAY...
IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY SETTLED INTO SC...AIDED SLOWLY
BY VERY SHALLOW (ONLY ~1000FT) NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL DOME IS ALSO WEAK WITH ONLY 10-20KT AT
290-295K PER RAP ANALYSIS. STRATUS HAS BEEN PATCH AND CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN CWA BUT IS STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE
LACK OF STRATUS AND ONLY THIN CIRRUS TO FILTER THE SUN HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO WARM UP IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT...SO HIGHS WILL
NEED TO BE RAISED A FEW DEGREES. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
OVERCAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXACTLY HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL WARMING
IS POSSIBLE IS TOUGH TO SAY. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT APPEARS TO
AVE CAUGHT ON TO THE TREND SUGGESTS MANY LOCATIONS WILL HIT
60S...WITH MID/UPPER 40S IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. THE CURRENT POP
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...SO WILL JUST MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO SLOW
THE ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...WHICH SHOULD BE MORE TOWARD
00Z PER HIRES GUIDANCE. CHANGES RESULT IN CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST AND
LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST...WITH QPF RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS
NORTHWEST TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH SOUTHEAST.
THE CHANCE OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...
DREARY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH HYBRID DAMMING WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THE WEAKENING FRONT TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RESULTANT WAA COUPLED
WITH ANY SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS
OF A CLASSIC "CAROLINA SPLIT"...WHERE CENTRAL NC EXPERIENCES A SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION/VOID IN PRECIP AS ENERGY/FORCING SPLITS TO OUR NW WITH THE PARENT S/W
TROUGH STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA AND TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER GIVEN WEAKENING CAD. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH
TO NEAR 70S SOUTH WITH MINIMAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
MON AND MON NIGHT: THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY MON
MORN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER NC...OTHERWISE
EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY MON...WITH
DRYING AND CAA BEHIND IT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE FRONT
THROUGH AND THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA BY MON NIGHT. GIVEN THE CURRENT
FROPA TIMING...THERE WILL BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN HIGHS MON... AROUND
70 DEGREES NW TO MID 70S SE. MON NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUE THROUGH WED: A RETURN OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR MID-
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING
ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUE AND WED. LOWS MODERATING
FROM UPPER LOW 40S TUE NIGHT TO MID TO AROUND 50 DEGREES WED NIGHT.
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN COULD MOVE INTO THE WEST AS EARLY AS WED
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT WILL MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL THU. THERE IS STILL A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING
BETWEEN THE MODELS...GFS FASTER THAN ECMWF.
THU THROUGH SAT: AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST
FROM CO TO THE GREAT LAKES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED OUT
OF THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC WED
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TX GULF COAST
AND MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT. TIMING OF RAINFALL ONSET...DURATION...
AND FROPA TIMING ARE ALL STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY THOUGH...
EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU THROUGH FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....
AS OF 140 PM SATURDAY...
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH AND A FRONT STALLED JUST
SOUTH OF THE NC BORDER. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL MAKE A RUN AT NC FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MOSTLY WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE NORTH OF THE FRONT...THOUGH
AN ISOLATED STORMS IS POSSIBLE AROUND KFAY THROUGH 00Z. LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
FRONT AND OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THE RESULTING CEILING HEIGHTS AND
RAINFALL INTENSITY IS LOW GIVEN POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST
24 HOURS. IT SEEMS AS THOUGH IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY 06Z AT
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. IF LOWER CEILINGS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL LINGER WELL
INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY
AROUND KFAY AND KRWI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE LINGERS BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE NC
COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY..WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR CONDITION SHOULD THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...22/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1035 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS... COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WAVY FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM SATURDAY...
IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY SETTLED INTO SC...AIDED SLOWLY
BY VERY SHALLOW (ONLY ~1000FT) NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL DOME IS ALSO WEAK WITH ONLY 10-20KT AT
290-295K PER RAP ANALYSIS. STRATUS HAS BEEN PATCH AND CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN CWA BUT IS STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE
LACK OF STRATUS AND ONLY THIN CIRRUS TO FILTER THE SUN HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO WARM UP IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT...SO HIGHS WILL
NEED TO BE RAISED A FEW DEGREES. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
OVERCAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXACTLY HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL WARMING
IS POSSIBLE IS TOUGH TO SAY. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT APPEARS TO
AVE CAUGHT ON TO THE TREND SUGGESTS MANY LOCATIONS WILL HIT
60S...WITH MID/UPPER 40S IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. THE CURRENT POP
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...SO WILL JUST MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO SLOW
THE ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...WHICH SHOULD BE MORE TOWARD
00Z PER HIRES GUIDANCE. CHANGES RESULT IN CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST AND
LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST...WITH QPF RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS
NORTHWEST TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH SOUTHEAST.
THE CHANCE OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...
DREARY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH HYBRID DAMMING WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THE WEAKENING FRONT TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RESULTANT WAA COUPLED
WITH ANY SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS
OF A CLASSIC "CAROLINA SPLIT"...WHERE CENTRAL NC EXPERIENCES A SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION/VOID IN PRECIP AS ENERGY/FORCING SPLITS TO OUR NW WITH THE PARENT S/W
TROUGH STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA AND TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER GIVEN WEAKENING CAD. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH
TO NEAR 70S SOUTH WITH MINIMAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
MON AND MON NIGHT: THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY MON
MORN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER NC...OTHERWISE
EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY MON...WITH
DRYING AND CAA BEHIND IT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE FRONT
THROUGH AND THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA BY MON NIGHT. GIVEN THE CURRENT
FROPA TIMING...THERE WILL BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN HIGHS MON... AROUND
70 DEGREES NW TO MID 70S SE. MON NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUE THROUGH WED: A RETURN OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR MID-
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING
ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUE AND WED. LOWS MODERATING
FROM UPPER LOW 40S TUE NIGHT TO MID TO AROUND 50 DEGREES WED NIGHT.
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN COULD MOVE INTO THE WEST AS EARLY AS WED
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT WILL MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL THU. THERE IS STILL A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING
BETWEEN THE MODELS...GFS FASTER THAN ECMWF.
THU THROUGH SAT: AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST
FROM CO TO THE GREAT LAKES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED OUT
OF THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC WED
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TX GULF COAST
AND MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT. TIMING OF RAINFALL ONSET...DURATION...
AND FROPA TIMING ARE ALL STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY THOUGH...
EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU THROUGH FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SATURDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE AS THE
FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH THE ONSET OF SOUTHERLY MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP
THE SHALLOW NELY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
EXPECTED AT KFAY. CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR AND
POSSIBLY LIFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...22/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THE 00-01 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE MISSOURI COTEAU OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...AND ADDED
A MENTION INTO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 723 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
NO CHANGES REQUIRED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS...WITH
MULTIPLE FLOCKS OF BIRDS LAUNCHING FROM AREA LAKES AND REFUGES
CLEARING EVIDENT ON RADAR THROUGH 0044 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
AT 3 PM CDT...A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT. A WARM H850 THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND RESULTED IN MILD TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO 60 THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WAS HIT QUITE A BIT
OF STRATO-CU FORMED AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
FORMED ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL END BY
EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH AND WASH OUT AS
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP BY MORNING. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
ON MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PULL INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK. BEST MOISTURE POTENTIAL
OCCURS WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A COMBINATION OR RAIN THEN SNOW.
THEREAFTER...GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW AVERAGE MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG JET (120KT) WEST OF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST DIVING SOUTH WITH TIME. THIS IS HELPING
TO STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN
DOING SO...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE WITH SHARPLY
RISING HEIGHTS WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND INTO NORTHERN ALASKA MIDWEEK. THIS WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE
IN ESTABLISHING A COOLING TREND BY MID TO LATE WEEK ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEKEND...SO
THE COLDER AIR BEYOND SATURDAY SHOULD SUBSIDE AND BEGIN TO MODERATE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...ALL DISCUSSIONS AND MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPEND
UPON HOW AN OPEN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH AN
EJECTING UPPER/SURFACE COLORADO LOW MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST IMPACT RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA WITH MUCH LESSER PRECIPITATION NORTH. A DEFORMATION
ZONE SETS UP OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE H7-H5 UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRANSLATES FROM COLORADO TO NEBRASKA AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE BEST FORCING...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE/LAPSE
RATES...ALL COINCIDE TOGETHER WITHIN THIS DEFORMATION ZONE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES TUESDAY EVENING WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND A
PERIOD OF LOWER VISIBILITIES FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL 18Z WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER. STRONG FORCING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 35KT PER GFS AND
NAM...BUT MUCH WEAKER PER ECMWF...MAY RESULT IN LOW VISIBILITIES IN
FALLING SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BEFORE THE MAIN
SHIELD OF SNOW ENDS BY AROUND 18Z. WPC LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
RANGE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE AMOUNTS WILL
BE A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH WPC FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 VALID BETWEEN
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND INTO MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DECENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS TUESDAY EVENING IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE AREA. THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY FALLS SHY
OF REACHING SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED
MONITORING AS ANY SHIFT NORTH COULD PUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION IN A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW...NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA MENTIONED ABOVE WITH A COMPENSATORY STRONG
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TWO COLD
FRONTS SWEEPING THROUGH. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHT SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW. CONCERN WILL BE SNOW/BLOWING
SNOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 30-35KT ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY
THE COLD FRONT AND SNOW. AFTER COORDINATION WITH RAPID CITY AND
ABERDEEN FORECAST OFFICES...HAVE INCREASED WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10KT
OVER WHAT OUR MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...HAVE COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADJUSTED
MAX TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BY 5 TO 8 DEGREES THURSDAY WITH ONGOING
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND H85 TEMPS TAKING A TREND TOWARD THE -4C TO
-8C DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW RATHER
THAN RAIN. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL.
THE WIND AND SNOW END THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCING FRIDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS SECOND COLD
FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE LESS WIND AND SNOW WITH IT AS IT PUSHES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER H85 TEMPS ARE
COLDER...RANGING BETWEEN 0C IN THE SOUTHWEST TO -16C IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F TUESDAY WILL BE REPLACED
WITH 40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40F THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS MAY BUILD INTO KMOT AND KJMS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. KBIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS BANK...AND WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT KISN
AND KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
939 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. WARMER
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE/FRONT THURSDAY. COOLER AIR AGAIN OVER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...AS LINE OF STORMS IN NW OHIO...INDIANA AND
WESTERN KY CONTINUES TO RACE EASTWARDS...AS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS...WITH STRENGTHENING
SHEAR OF 60+KTS OUT AHEAD OF FRONT. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF
WEAKENING OF STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LINE...AS
SOUTHERN STORMS STRENGTHEN...AND IT IS STILL YET TO BE SEEN HOW IT
WILL ALL PLAY OUT...BUT THERE IS A RISK FOR STRONG WINDS TONIGHT
WITH ANY CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... WITH MORNING UPDATE HAD PUT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AS A PSEUDO WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
CWA...HOWEVER RADAR ECHOS HAVE LARGELY DRIED UP SO TOOK THAT
MENTION BACK OUT. HRRR STILL TRIES TO KICK OFF A SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT WITH THICK CIRRUS NOW IN PLACE...DO NOT SEE US BEING
ABLE TO POP ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CU.
HAVE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND LOWER INTO THIS EVENING...AS
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM STARTS MAKING ITS WAY UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STILL THINKING WE COULD GET SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...SO LEFT SOME LOW POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS
TO NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HAVE 80-100 POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES. MUCH LIKE THE LAST DECENT COLD FRONT WE
HAD PASS...PWATS DRY UP SOME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SO HAVE
HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SE OHIO -- GENERALLY 0.5 INCH...TAPERING DOWN
TO ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
ANY INSTABILITY OF NOTE REMAINS LARGELY TO OUR WEST UNTIL SOME
200-400J/KG CAPE SLIDES THROUGH RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND BY
THAT TIME WE ARE GETTING INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD TO AROUND THE I-79 CORRIDOR BEFORE FADING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
850 MB THERMAL TROF PASSES AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...12Z NAM AND ECMWF
ABOUT 1 TO 2C COLDER THAN THE 12Z GFS. LOWERED MIN TEMP AOA 4000
THSD A DEGREE OR TWO...TRENDING COLDER THAN GFS.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THINNING MOISTURE UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AOB 5 THSD FT...SO CLOUD COVER TOUGH...WITH HOLES OPENING
UP. STILL HAVE THE LOWERING POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...MAYBE A SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER UP HIGH.
STILL THOUGHT ENOUGH CLEARING IN NE KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT FOR
POSSIBLE MIN TEMP NEAR FREEZING FOR DAWN TUESDAY. WILL INSERT IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR KY SINCE THAT IS WHERE OUR SPRING
FREEZE PROGRAM AS ALREADY STARTED. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT...DID NOT POST A
FREEZE WATCH.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR VICINITY AT START OF TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGHT NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY FORM IN VALLEYS BEFORE THE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST INCREASES 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SO LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
ANOTHER NICE MARCH DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...FOR THIS WARM MARCH OF 2016.
A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP SPREAD WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO 14C IN SRN
LOWLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WARM FRONT
COULD BRING SOME RAIN EARLY THURSDAY...BUT THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT LIKELY
POPS FOR THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW LOW SFC CAPE AND HIGH DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.25 INCHES. THESE
PARAMETER COULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...KEPT THUNDER UNDER LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY.
BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT A SECONDARY FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR.
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
BUT FASTER SYSTEM CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
USED THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME MVFR CLOUDS ALONG EASTERN
SLOPES...AFFECTING SITES SUCH AS KBKW. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z AS A COLD
FRONT...ALONG WITH SCT SHRA AND TSRA SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY AFTER
06-09Z...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20 KTS.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 18-20Z...WHEN SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
LOW VFR WILL TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST. MOUNTAINS MAY NOT SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR MAY OCCUR
ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 03/28/16
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
804 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. WARMER
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE/FRONT THURSDAY. COOLER AIR AGAIN OVER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...REMOVED MENTION OF POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WITH MORNING UPDATE HAD PUT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AS A PSEUDO
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS CWA...HOWEVER RADAR ECHOS HAVE LARGELY
DRIED UP SO TOOK THAT MENTION BACK OUT. HRRR STILL TRIES TO KICK
OFF A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT WITH THICK CIRRUS NOW IN PLACE...DO NOT
SEE US BEING ABLE TO POP ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CU.
HAVE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND LOWER INTO THIS EVENING...AS
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM STARTS MAKING ITS WAY UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STILL THINKING WE COULD GET SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...SO LEFT SOME LOW POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS
TO NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HAVE 80-100 POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES. MUCH LIKE THE LAST DECENT COLD FRONT WE
HAD PASS...PWATS DRY UP SOME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SO HAVE
HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SE OHIO -- GENERALLY 0.5 INCH...TAPERING DOWN
TO ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
ANY INSTABILITY OF NOTE REMAINS LARGELY TO OUR WEST UNTIL SOME
200-400J/KG CAPE SLIDES THROUGH RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND BY
THAT TIME WE ARE GETTING INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD TO AROUND THE I-79 CORRIDOR BEFORE FADING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
850 MB THERMAL TROF PASSES AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...12Z NAM AND ECMWF
ABOUT 1 TO 2C COLDER THAN THE 12Z GFS. LOWERED MIN TEMP AOA 4000
THSD A DEGREE OR TWO...TRENDING COLDER THAN GFS.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THINNING MOISTURE UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AOB 5 THSD FT...SO CLOUD COVER TOUGH...WITH HOLES OPENING
UP. STILL HAVE THE LOWERING POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...MAYBE A SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER UP HIGH.
STILL THOUGHT ENOUGH CLEARING IN NE KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT FOR
POSSIBLE MIN TEMP NEAR FREEZING FOR DAWN TUESDAY. WILL INSERT IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR KY SINCE THAT IS WHERE OUR SPRING
FREEZE PROGRAM AS ALREADY STARTED. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT...DID NOT POST A
FREEZE WATCH.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR VICINITY AT START OF TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGHT NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY FORM IN VALLEYS BEFORE THE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST INCREASES 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SO LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
ANOTHER NICE MARCH DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...FOR THIS WARM MARCH OF 2016.
A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP SPREAD WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO 14C IN SRN
LOWLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WARM FRONT
COULD BRING SOME RAIN EARLY THURSDAY...BUT THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT LIKELY
POPS FOR THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW LOW SFC CAPE AND HIGH DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.25 INCHES. THESE
PARAMETER COULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...KEPT THUNDER UNDER LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY.
BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT A SECONDARY FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR.
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
BUT FASTER SYSTEM CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
USED THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME MVFR CLOUDS ALONG EASTERN
SLOPES...AFFECTING SITES SUCH AS KBKW. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z AS A COLD
FRONT...ALONG WITH SCT SHRA AND TSRA SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY AFTER
06-09Z...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20 KTS.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 18-20Z...WHEN SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
LOW VFR WILL TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST. MOUNTAINS MAY NOT SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR MAY OCCUR
ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 03/28/16
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
309 PM PDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT WITH SHOWERY
COOL WEATHER FOR SUN INTO MON. SNOW LEVEL WILL DROP OVERNIGHT AND
BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO THE CASCADE PASSES THROUGH MON.
THEN DRY AND MILD WEATHER STARTS TUE...AND LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS REGION WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) THE WARM FRONT OFFSHORE
EXTENDS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST AND CASCADES ZONES. FURTHER NORTH THERE ARE
DECENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE AN OCCLUDING COLD FRONT
ABOUT 400 MILES OFFSHORE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST AROUND
10 PM TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES INTO THE CASCADES
AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO FILL IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AS THE 20Z HRRR AND 12Z WRFGFS
SUGGEST.
RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE SNOW LEVELS LOWER
TO AROUND 3000-3500 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING
MORE SHOWERY OR HIT AND MISS IN NATURE BY THAT TIME... SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. GENERALLY 2 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
FOR SUN OVER THE CASCADES...AND BIT MORE SUN NIGHT.
WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVER THE REGION ON SUN...SEEMS THAT
WILL HAVE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT MINOR CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ENERGY...SO WILL KEEP THREAT OF THUNDER IN FORECAST FOR SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH LOWER FREEZING LEVELS...HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
S-SE TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING IN DRIER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN A WHILE...WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES PROVIDE A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE CLEARING/DRYING TREND
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS AFTER A CHILLY START. MH/SMW/CCDR
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
TODAY WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT. STRONG UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER...WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH MODEST OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. AFTER THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO OPEN THE
MONTH AND WITH MILD AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE END...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE OLD ADAGE OF MARCH ENTERING LIKE A LION AND EXITING
LIKE A LAMB WILL HOLD THIS YEAR. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LOCAL MVFR ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SOUTH VALLEY.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
THE COLD FRONT MOVING ONSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION TONIGHT. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE SHOWERY
LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS TRENDING TOWARDS VFR ON SUNDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS
AROUND 4000 FT. WILL SEE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS BECOME SHOWERY LATE TONIGHT WITH
CIGS TRENDING TOWARDS VFR ON SUNDAY. /64
&&
.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE WERE A FEW HOURS OF MARGINAL SCA WIND
GUSTS THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES OF SCA WINDS CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SCA FOR WINDS THERE. THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS COULD
SEE SOME MARGINAL SCA WINDS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.
WILL SEE NORTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHEN LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A
ROUND OF NORTHERLY SCA WINDS DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT SCA
EXPIRES.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 5 FT. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT AND LONG
NORTHWEST WIND FETCH WILL BRING COMBINED HYBRID SWELL/FRESH SWELL
SEAS BACK ABOVE 10 FT SUNDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL BE RATHER CHOPPY
AS PERIODS WILL HOVER AROUND 10-12 SECONDS. SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 10
FT AGAIN AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY BY MIDWEEK. /64/JBONK
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
907 AM PDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, BUT ENOUGH TO WET SURFACES. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE MORE
BREAKS IN BETWEEN. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODEL LIKE THE HRRR AND RAP. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS DOWN
FOR TODAY, BUT KEPT POPS THE SAME. IN FACT THE LARGEST AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTHERN OREGON AND IS MOVING EAST. THERE IS
ALSO A LINE OF LIGHT RAIN THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROGUE VALLEY,
BUT THIS SHOULD LAST LESS THAN AN HOUR BEFORE MOVING EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THE REST OF SUNDAY.
A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH MOST CENTERED ALONG THE WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT MOST
INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS TO THE COAST AROUND DAWN THIS
MORNING AND THEN INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE SATURDAY...THOUGH TERRAIN MAY BECOME
PARTIALLY OBSCURED AS CIGS LOWER INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SVEN/SK
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 2 AM PDT SAT 26 MAR 2016...WEST SWELL HAS SUBSIDED
BELOW 10 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH WINDS AND STEEPER SEAS IS LIKELY
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
WEEK. SK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM PDT SAT MAR 26 2016/
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY AND BRING WET
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INLAND DURING THE EVENING
AND NIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA AND LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS. ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE PACNW.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH THE LOW, EXPECT A SHOWERY AND COLDER
PATTERN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST
AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN SOUTHWEST OREGON THIS
MORNING...THEN PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE CASCADES AND
INTO EAST SIDE AREAS. ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, EXPECT LESS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SLIGHT CHANCE INTO MODOC COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE AS THIS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...INCREASING TO 6000
TO 7000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. ALSO SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM 6000 TO 7000 FEET
DOWN TO AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WESTWARD.
ON SUNDAY MORNING, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT AND
LESS WIDESPREAD WITH BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INLAND OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY. HOWEVER, SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4000 TO 4500 FEET
SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN CASCADES WEST. EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER MORE GRADUALLY
DOWN TO 4500 TO 6000 FEET ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER EASTERN OREGON THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT FURTHER
EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD AIR MASS
ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -34C MOVING INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY
NIGHT TO AROUND 2500 FEET ELEVATION AND REMAIN LOW ON MONDAY.
LOCALLY SNOW LEVELS OF 2000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER INLAND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
AS A RESULT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT. ANY
SNOW THAT FALLS IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATION AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES ON SNOW
ACCUMULATING IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING, WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH BELOW 3000 FEET
ELEVATION. AS THE LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST, EXPECT WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO BRING SOME ENHANCED SHOWERS TO LAKE COUNTY AND INTO
EASTERN MODOC COUNTY, ESPECIALLY TO THE WARNER AND HART MOUNTAINS.
THESE AREAS MAY EXPECT AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING WILL LOWER INTO THE MID 30S FOR MANY VALLEYS WEST
OF THE CASCADES IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR
VALLEYS IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. EAST SIDE AREAS WILL SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BY 7 TO 10 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR WESTERN VALLEYS
AND INTO THE LOW 40S FOR EAST SIDE VALLEYS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
AND EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING THEN TAPER OFF FOR WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY TUESDAY.
LINGERING WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY FROM
THE CASCADES EASTWARD. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR WESTERN VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S. AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
926 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
THIS FRONT WITH OVERALL DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM EDT SUNDAY...
00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWING PWAT OF 1.04 INCHES WITH DEEP MOISTURE UP
TO 600MB. RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME INTENSIFICATION TO THE RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA INTO THE NC PIEDMONT.
OVERALL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL FEED THE RAIN NORTH
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SHOULD SEE
A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY CONDITION OVER THE WEST UNTIL THE MAIN
FRONT TRACKS EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. STILL SOME
PATCHY RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY AT TIMES. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
REST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITH THE EVENING UPDATE MAINLY
FOCUSING THE HIGHER POPS EAST EARLY.
PREVIOUS LATE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOLID AREA OF RAIN NEAR THE TRIAD OF NC ESE
TO THE TRIANGLE AND MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND
RAP12 INCREASE THE RAIN THREAT OVER THE PIEDMONT TOWARD LATE
EVENING WHILE LEAVING THE MOUNTAINS IN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. AS SUCH MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR FORECAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THINGS BUT DECIDED TO LOWER POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS OVER THE WEST
PER LATEST TRENDS. HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CLOSES OFF A 500 MB LOWS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE ENTIRE TROF AXIS WILL BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING
AREA THIS EVENING THEN IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PROBABILITIES AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN. HAVE MAINTAINED A NARROW PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
WHERE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CAPES IN THE 100-400 J/KG RANGE.
SURFACE FRONT AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 15Z/11AM. CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN OVER THE WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS FOR THE REST OF MONDAY BUT AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE DRY ENOUGH SO CLEAR OUT THE REST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
SURFACE WIND BRIEFLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE WEDGE BREAKS JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL USE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET STILL FORECAST TO BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. MOMENTUM TRANSFER OFF OF
BUFKIT DID NOT SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...GUSTS ABOVE 40
KNOTS/46 MPH. BUT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...
TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BRINGING MOSTLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS
TO THE MOUNTAINS SCATTERING OUT AS YOU HEAD TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE.
CANT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR FLURRY ACROSS THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW AND WONT LAST LONG SO JUST LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BACK HALF OF TUESDAY AND THE ENTIRE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL
BE DRY.
DESPITE THE COLDER AIR FILTERING IN MONDAY NIGHT...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD HOLD THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION ABOVE FREEZING
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DIP JUST BELOW FREEZING. HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN VA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECT MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO FALL RIGHT AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND
TO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...
DEEPENING LOW THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE MARCHING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...TRAILING A COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON
THURSDAY. TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT...BUT
EARLY FORECASTS FROM WPC SHOW AROUND AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH ALMOST TWO INCHES ACROSS NW NC. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME UPSLOPE PRECIP DURING THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW JUST MENTION LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CROSSES ON FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND WILL BE AN ISSUE AT ALL TAF
SITES FROM MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TWO SYNOPTIC-SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE NEAR THE WV/VA BORDER FROM KBLF SOUTHWEST TOWARD
KVJI. IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR VSBYS PREVAIL WITHIN THE WEDGE
AIR MASS. OUTSIDE THE WEDGE CIGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR TO LOW END
VFR...INCLUDING KBLF YET AT THIS HOUR. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST OF THIS
RAINFALL HAS REMAINED SOUTHEAST OF THE RNK CWA...THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE IS CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW TO BUCKLE AND WE ARE NOW
STARTING TO SEE THE SOUTHEAST RAINFALL SPREADING FURTHER NORTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. -SHRA ARE ENCROACHING ON KDAN
AT THIS HOUR...AND LIKELY WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTHWEST AS KLYH
AND PERHAPS KROA LATER THIS EVENING OR INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AFTER
07Z AS THE UPSTREAM FRONT APPROACHES.
THE SUPPORT WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH IS LARGELY TO THE
NORTHEAST...SO ALTHOUGH SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EVIDENT NOW ACROSS IN/KY/WESTERN OH...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
NOT MAKE IT INTACT TO THE RNK CWA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH
KLWB/KBLF INTO FAR SOUTHWEST IN THE 04Z-09Z TIME FRAME...BUT
LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT FAR PAST THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. THIS LEAVES
KBCB AND PERHAPS EVEN KROA WITH LARGELY -DZ BR THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE 11Z-14Z
TIME FRAME...CIGS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...LINGER IN THE IFR-MVFR RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT AND THE BLUE RIDGE...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY
16Z...BUT LIKELY REMAIN MVFR UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN WV INTO FAR SOUTHWEST VA BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY BE SOUTHEAST 5-7KTS WITH LOW END
GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KBLF...TYPICAL WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP. WINDS
WILL TEND TO BECOME CALM/LIGHT AND VARIABLE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME W-WNW 13-18KTS WITH GUSTS
25-32KTS FROM 15Z UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOW CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...CF
LONG TERM...CF/RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
759 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
THIS FRONT WITH OVERALL DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOLID AREA OF RAIN NEAR THE TRIAD OF NC ESE
TO THE TRIANGLE AND MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND
RAP12 INCREASE THE RAIN THREAT OVER THE PIEDMONT TOWARD LATE
EVENING WHILE LEAVING THE MOUNTAINS IN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. AS SUCH MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR FORECAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THINGS BUT DECIDED TO LOWER POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS OVER THE WEST
PER LATEST TRENDS. HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CLOSES OFF A 500 MB LOWS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE ENTIRE TROF AXIS WILL BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING
AREA THIS EVENING THEN IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PROBABILITIES AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN. HAVE MAINTAINED A NARROW PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
WHERE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CAPES IN THE 100-400 J/KG RANGE.
SURFACE FRONT AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 15Z/11AM. CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN OVER THE WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS FOR THE REST OF MONDAY BUT AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE DRY ENOUGH SO CLEAR OUT THE REST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
SURFACE WIND BRIEFLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE WEDGE BREAKS JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL USE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET STILL FORECAST TO BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. MOMENTUM TRANSFER OFF OF
BUFKIT DID NOT SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...GUSTS ABOVE 40
KNOTS/46 MPH. BUT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...
TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BRINGING MOSTLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS
TO THE MOUNTAINS SCATTERING OUT AS YOU HEAD TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE.
CANT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR FLURRY ACROSS THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW AND WONT LAST LONG SO JUST LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BACK HALF OF TUESDAY AND THE ENTIRE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL
BE DRY.
DESPITE THE COLDER AIR FILTERING IN MONDAY NIGHT...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD HOLD THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION ABOVE FREEZING
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DIP JUST BELOW FREEZING. HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN VA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECT MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO FALL RIGHT AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND
TO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...
DEEPENING LOW THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE MARCHING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...TRAILING A COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON
THURSDAY. TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT...BUT
EARLY FORECASTS FROM WPC SHOW AROUND AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH ALMOST TWO INCHES ACROSS NW NC. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME UPSLOPE PRECIP DURING THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW JUST MENTION LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CROSSES ON FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND WILL BE AN ISSUE AT ALL TAF
SITES FROM MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TWO SYNOPTIC-SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE NEAR THE WV/VA BORDER FROM KBLF SOUTHWEST TOWARD
KVJI. IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR VSBYS PREVAIL WITHIN THE WEDGE
AIR MASS. OUTSIDE THE WEDGE CIGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR TO LOW END
VFR...INCLUDING KBLF YET AT THIS HOUR. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST OF THIS
RAINFALL HAS REMAINED SOUTHEAST OF THE RNK CWA...THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE IS CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW TO BUCKLE AND WE ARE NOW
STARTING TO SEE THE SOUTHEAST RAINFALL SPREADING FURTHER NORTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. -SHRA ARE ENCROACHING ON KDAN
AT THIS HOUR...AND LIKELY WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTHWEST AS KLYH
AND PERHAPS KROA LATER THIS EVENING OR INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AFTER
07Z AS THE UPSTREAM FRONT APPROACHES.
THE SUPPORT WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH IS LARGELY TO THE
NORTHEAST...SO ALTHOUGH SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EVIDENT NOW ACROSS IN/KY/WESTERN OH...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
NOT MAKE IT INTACT TO THE RNK CWA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH
KLWB/KBLF INTO FAR SOUTHWEST IN THE 04Z-09Z TIME FRAME...BUT
LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT FAR PAST THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. THIS LEAVES
KBCB AND PERHAPS EVEN KROA WITH LARGELY -DZ BR THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE 11Z-14Z
TIME FRAME...CIGS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...LINGER IN THE IFR-MVFR RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT AND THE BLUE RIDGE...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY
16Z...BUT LIKELY REMAIN MVFR UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN WV INTO FAR SOUTHWEST VA BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY BE SOUTHEAST 5-7KTS WITH LOW END
GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KBLF...TYPICAL WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP. WINDS
WILL TEND TO BECOME CALM/LIGHT AND VARIABLE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME W-WNW 13-18KTS WITH GUSTS
25-32KTS FROM 15Z UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOW CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...CF
LONG TERM...CF/RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
657 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
THIS FRONT WITH OVERALL DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOLID AREA OF RAIN NEAR THE TRIAD OF NC ESE
TO THE TRIANGLE AND MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND
RAP12 INCREASE THE RAIN THREAT OVER THE PIEDMONT TOWARD LATE
EVENING WHILE LEAVING THE MOUNTAINS IN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. AS SUCH MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR FORECAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THINGS BUT DECIDED TO LOWER POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS OVER THE WEST
PER LATEST TRENDS. HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CLOSES OFF A 500 MB LOWS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE ENTIRE TROF AXIS WILL BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING
AREA THIS EVENING THEN IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PROBABILITIES AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN. HAVE MAINTAINED A NARROW PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
WHERE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CAPES IN THE 100-400 J/KG RANGE.
SURFACE FRONT AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 15Z/11AM. CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN OVER THE WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS FOR THE REST OF MONDAY BUT AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE DRY ENOUGH SO CLEAR OUT THE REST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
SURFACE WIND BRIEFLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE WEDGE BREAKS JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL USE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET STILL FORECAST TO BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. MOMENTUM TRANSFER OFF OF
BUFKIT DID NOT SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...GUSTS ABOVE 40
KNOTS/46 MPH. BUT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...
TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BRINGING MOSTLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS
TO THE MOUNTAINS SCATTERING OUT AS YOU HEAD TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE.
CANT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR FLURRY ACROSS THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW AND WONT LAST LONG SO JUST LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BACK HALF OF TUESDAY AND THE ENTIRE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL
BE DRY.
DESPITE THE COLDER AIR FILTERING IN MONDAY NIGHT...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD HOLD THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION ABOVE FREEZING
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DIP JUST BELOW FREEZING. HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN VA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECT MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO FALL RIGHT AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND
TO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...
DEEPENING LOW THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE MARCHING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...TRAILING A COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON
THURSDAY. TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT...BUT
EARLY FORECASTS FROM WPC SHOW AROUND AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH ALMOST TWO INCHES ACROSS NW NC. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME UPSLOPE PRECIP DURING THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW JUST MENTION LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CROSSES ON FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING
EXTENSIVE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WAS ROUGHLY FROM
KHSP TO KMKJ.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG A FRONT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LOWER THE CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR AFTER 00Z/8PM WITH PERSISTENT
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MODELS SHOWED GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH
THE WEDGE BREAKING AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BETWEEN 10Z AND
14Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE WINDS AND CEILINGS THROUGH 15Z/11AM.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN AT KLWB AND KBLF THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...BUT KBCB/KROA/KLYH AND KDAN WILL HAVE RAPID CLEARING.
WIND GUST THROUGH 18Z MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND
LOW CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...CF
LONG TERM...CF/RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1046 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY BEFORE WEDGING SOUTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS THIS FRONT WITH OVERALL DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS MAINLY TO REDUCE SKY COVER IN THE WEST
TODAY AS EFFECTS OF WEDGING ARE MORE PRONOUNCED EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE MUCH HEAVIER CLOUD COVER EXISTS. BUMPED TEMPS UP
A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE AREAS OF REDUCED CLOUD COVER.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SATURDAY...
LOW LEVEL COOL AIR WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAK STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH REMAINS THE SOURCE FOR MOISTURE TO
SHIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A FAINT SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST
CAUSES WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES LATER TODAY. MODELS SUGGEST THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING DEEPENING MOISTURE BACK NORTH AHEAD OF THE WAVE
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER FORECAST
ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS QUITE WEAK AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
EAST/NE THAN SOUTHEAST TODAY THINK GUIDANCE LIKELY OVERDONE WITH
PRECIP PUSHING WELL NORTH ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. CANT
TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY -RA REACHING THE FAR SOUTH/SE LATE
ALONG THE PROGGED 85H THETA-E GRADIENT AND SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIRES-ARW/ENSEMBLES. THUS INCLUDING SOME 20/30 POPS MAINLY SE
THIRD FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY -RA LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRY
ELSEWHERE.
OTRW CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR DRY
AIR TO MIX OUT LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH LATER ON. MOST MOS GUIDANCE QUITE COOL WITHIN
THE WEDGE BASED ON HAVING A THICKER CLOUD CANOPY ALL DAY WHICH
LOOKS OVERDONE. HOWEVER CURRENT ECMWF MOS APPEARS WAY TOO WARM SO
KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS PENDING CLOUDS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS BEING MUCH COOLER THAN EXPECTED.
INITIAL BATCH OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING
BUT LIKELY REPLACED BY LINGERING UPSLOPE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
TURNS MORE SE. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE/FOG ESPCLY
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION OVER
TOP THE COOL POOL. HOWEVER ANY ADDITIONAL QPF QUITE LIGHT AND MAINLY
SOUTHERN TIER WITH POSSIBLE DENSE FOG I-77 CORRIDOR UNDER LOWERING
CLOUD BASES OVERNIGHT DESPITE LACK OF MUCH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THEREFORE
RUNNING WITH DECREASING POPS SOUTH/SE SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
TREND TOWARD MORE PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE AND LITTLE PRECIP WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN MORE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S
AND PERHAPS ONLY NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST WITH CLOUDS AROUND AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE WEDGE WILL START TO ERODE
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE WEDGE WILL KEEP
LOW CLOUDS...RAIN...AND DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. INSIDE THE WEDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. OUTSIDE OF THE
WEDGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEFIELD-RICHLANDS AREA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S.
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INCREASE MIXING WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET...THE WEDGE
WILL ERODE OVERNIGHT. AREAS IN THE WEDGE SUNDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES OVER THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR
ADVECTING IN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT COULD BRING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
/0.25-0.50/ OF RAIN TO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY SEE UP TO A
TENTH /0.10/ OF AN INCH WHILE IN THE WEDGE...THEN POSSIBLY A QUARTER
/0.25/ OF AN INCH WITH THE PASSING OF THE FRONT. ALSO BEHIND THE
FRONT...PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT DAYS AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. MEANWHILE
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES E/NE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. ON FRIDAY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND SKIRTS JUST TO
OUR EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. SURFACE TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT SATURDAY...
BRIEF CLEARING OVERNIGHT HAS ALLOWED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITH LIFR AT KLWB IN FREEZING FOG WHICH IS LIKELY
TO LINGER INTO MID MORNING BEFORE FADING. OTRW SEEING MAINLY VFR
TO INIT THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF VFR STRATO-CU CIGS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. EXPECTING SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO WORK NORTH
ACROSS MANY OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH CIGS BETWEEN 3-5K
FEET.
HOWEVER FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN REGARD TO CLOUD COVER
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANY LOWER CIGS THIS MORNING TO
MIX OUT IN ALL EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
CLOSER TO A STALLED FRONT. DEEPENING WEDGE DEVELOPMENT THOUGH ALONG
WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRAJECTORY LIKELY TO SWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BACK
TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THINK NORTHERN SECTIONS FROM KLWB TO KLYH HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR CIGS LONGER WHILE
ELSEWHERE APPEARS A PERIOD OF VFR BEFORE TRENDING TO HIGH END MVFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SE TO NW. THUS KEEPING MOST CIGS WITHIN
LOW END VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON PENDING JUST HOW WIDESPREAD CURRENT
DEVELOPING STRATO-CU GETS IN THE FACE OF HEATING.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE WEDGE COULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SUB-VFR INCLUDING AREAS OF DRIZZLE/-RA FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MOST APT TO OCCUR AROUND KDAN THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HRRR AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD INCLUDING
KROA/KBCB TO KLYH OVERNIGHT WHERE COULD FALL INTO LIFR/IFR CIGS
WITH MVFR TO OCNL IFR VSBYS. APPEARS DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW WILL
KEEP KBLF/KLWB NO WORSE THAN MVFR WITH POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AND FOG
SPILLING INTO KLWB LATE.
THESE LOW CIGS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
POTENTIALLY SCATTERING OUT FROM THE WEST AS THE WEDGE RETREATS
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY SUNDAY EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. BREEZY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE DELAYED EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF WEST VA WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CF/JH
NEAR TERM...PC/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/PH/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
722 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY BEFORE WEDGING SOUTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS THIS FRONT WITH OVERALL DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SATURDAY...
LOW LEVEL COOL AIR WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAK STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH REMAINS THE SOURCE FOR MOISTURE TO
SHIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A FAINT SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST
CAUSES WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES LATER TODAY. MODELS SUGGEST THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING DEEPENING MOISTURE BACK NORTH AHEAD OF THE WAVE
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER FORECAST
ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS QUITE WEAK AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
EAST/NE THAN SOUTHEAST TODAY THINK GUIDANCE LIKELY OVERDONE WITH
PRECIP PUSHING WELL NORTH ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. CANT
TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY -RA REACHING THE FAR SOUTH/SE LATE
ALONG THE PROGGED 85H THETA-E GRADIENT AND SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIRES-ARW/ENSEMBLES. THUS INCLUDING SOME 20/30 POPS MAINLY SE
THIRD FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY -RA LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRY
ELSEWHERE.
OTRW CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR DRY
AIR TO MIX OUT LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH LATER ON. MOST MOS GUIDANCE QUITE COOL WITHIN
THE WEDGE BASED ON HAVING A THICKER CLOUD CANOPY ALL DAY WHICH
LOOKS OVERDONE. HOWEVER CURRENT ECMWF MOS APPEARS WAY TOO WARM SO
KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS PENDING CLOUDS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS BEING MUCH COOLER THAN EXPECTED.
INITIAL BATCH OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING
BUT LIKELY REPLACED BY LINGERING UPSLOPE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
TURNS MORE SE. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE/FOG ESPCLY
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION OVER
TOP THE COOL POOL. HOWEVER ANY ADDITIONAL QPF QUITE LIGHT AND MAINLY
SOUTHERN TIER WITH POSSIBLE DENSE FOG I-77 CORRIDOR UNDER LOWERING
CLOUD BASES OVERNIGHT DESPITE LACK OF MUCH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THEREFORE
RUNNING WITH DECREASING POPS SOUTH/SE SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
TREND TOWARD MORE PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE AND LITTLE PRECIP WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN MORE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S
AND PERHAPS ONLY NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST WITH CLOUDS AROUND AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE WEDGE WILL START TO ERODE
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE WEDGE WILL KEEP
LOW CLOUDS...RAIN...AND DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. INSIDE THE WEDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. OUTSIDE OF THE
WEDGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEFIELD-RICHLANDS AREA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S.
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INCREASE MIXING WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET...THE WEDGE
WILL ERODE OVERNIGHT. AREAS IN THE WEDGE SUNDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES OVER THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR
ADVECTING IN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT COULD BRING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
/0.25-0.50/ OF RAIN TO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY SEE UP TO A
TENTH /0.10/ OF AN INCH WHILE IN THE WEDGE...THEN POSSIBLY A QUARTER
/0.25/ OF AN INCH WITH THE PASSING OF THE FRONT. ALSO BEHIND THE
FRONT...PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT DAYS AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. MEANWHILE
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES E/NE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. ON FRIDAY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND SKIRTS JUST TO
OUR EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. SURFACE TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT SATURDAY...
BRIEF CLEARING OVERNIGHT HAS ALLOWED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITH LIFR AT KLWB IN FREEZING FOG WHICH IS LIKELY
TO LINGER INTO MID MORNING BEFORE FADING. OTRW SEEING MAINLY VFR
TO INIT THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF VFR STRATO-CU CIGS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. EXPECTING SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO WORK NORTH
ACROSS MANY OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH CIGS BETWEEN 3-5K
FEET.
HOWEVER FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN REGARD TO CLOUD COVER
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANY LOWER CIGS THIS MORNING TO
MIX OUT IN ALL EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
CLOSER TO A STALLED FRONT. DEEPENING WEDGE DEVELOPMENT THOUGH ALONG
WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRAJECTORY LIKELY TO SWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BACK
TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THINK NORTHERN SECTIONS FROM KLWB TO KLYH HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR CIGS LONGER WHILE
ELSEWHERE APPEARS A PERIOD OF VFR BEFORE TRENDING TO HIGH END MVFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SE TO NW. THUS KEEPING MOST CIGS WITHIN
LOW END VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON PENDING JUST HOW WIDESPREAD CURRENT
DEVELOPING STRATO-CU GETS IN THE FACE OF HEATING.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE WEDGE COULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SUB-VFR INCLUDING AREAS OF DRIZZLE/-RA FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MOST APT TO OCCUR AROUND KDAN THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HRRR AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD INCLUDING
KROA/KBCB TO KLYH OVERNIGHT WHERE COULD FALL INTO LIFR/IFR CIGS
WITH MVFR TO OCNL IFR VSBYS. APPEARS DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW WILL
KEEP KBLF/KLWB NO WORSE THAN MVFR WITH POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AND FOG
SPILLING INTO KLWB LATE.
THESE LOW CIGS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
POTENTIALLY SCATTERING OUT FROM THE WEST AS THE WEDGE RETREATS
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY SUNDAY EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. BREEZY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE DELAYED EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF WEST VA WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CF/JH
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/PH/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
114 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE
WEDGING IN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT WITH OVERALL DRY WEATHER INTO
MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1135 PM EDT FRIDAY...
STILL SEEING LINGERING MOISTURE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF DANVILLE
AND REIDSVILLE THROUGH 1AM. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT STRUGGLE TO CLEAR
OUT EAST WITH FRONT SLOW TO MOVE AND HIGH CLOUDS POURING IN FROM
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING WITH MORE CLOUDS
ARRIVING TOWARD DAWN. THE WEST WILL SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS STAY
AROUND ON THE WRN SLOPES OF SE WV TO FAR SW VA TIL 4AM THEN CLEAR
SOME TOWARD DAWN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM LATE AFTERNOON...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM WRN NC NORTHEAST TO THE TIDEWATER OF
VIRGINIA. SOME SHOWERS STILL LINGERING OVER SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. THE 18Z LOCAL WRF AND 21Z HRRR HANDLED THIS PRETTY
WELL SO KEEPING LOW CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA FROM THE TRIAD OF NC TO THE DANVILLE SOUTH BOSTON
VICINITY TIL LATE EVENING...THEN SEEING A DRYING TREND. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING SOMEWHAT OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CWA WITH HIGH
CLOUDS THINNING OUT.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO VEER TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. ABOVE THE SFC...850MB WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH
HELPING TO PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND KEEPING TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF CLEARING AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 30S WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S. HOWEVER...NO FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN.
DROPPED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
TAKES FIRM HOLD OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...KEEPING CLOUDS IN PLACE.
FORECAST MODELS ALSO INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 295/300K SFCS
DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460...AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION.
THEREFORE...INTRODUCED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
AT 00Z SUNDAY A LOW WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PLACING THE REGION UNDER AN EASTERLY WEDGE
FLOW. GFS PREVIOUSLY HAD A SURFACE LOW RUNNING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY BUT THE NEW 12Z RUN NOW HAS THE LOW UP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL RIDE THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY ROB US SOMEWHAT FOR
RAINFALL...BUT STILL EXPECT THE REGION TO GET ABOUT A TENTH TO A
QUARTER INCH OF QPF. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRINING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPS FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY WILL BRING
A COOL DOWN TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT
A DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD STILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT DAYS AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. MEANWHILE
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES E/NE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. ON FRIDAY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND SKIRTS JUST TO
OUR EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. SURFACE TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SATURDAY...
IR PICS AND OBS SHOW LOWER MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY SHIFTING BACK EAST
OUT OF WEST VA TONIGHT WITH ADDED VFR STRATO-CU DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH MVFR
CIGS LIKELY AT TIMES FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST OVERNIGHT...AND VFR
FROM KROA EAST IN A MIX OF STRATO-CU AND MID DECK THROUGH
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER COULD SEE CIGS LOWER ENOUGH FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AROUND KDAN LATE AND PERHAPS IFR AROUND KBLF WHERE SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN REGARD TO CLOUD COVER DURING
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS TO MIX OUT IN ALL EXCEPT
THE FAR WEST AND ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE CLOSER TO A STALLED FRONT.
HOWEVER DEEPENING WEDGE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY
TRAJECTORY LIKELY TO SWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BACK TO THE BLUE RIDGE.
THINK NORTHERN SECTIONS FROM KLWB TO KLYH HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT
SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR CIGS LONGER WHILE ELSEWHERE APPEARS
A PERIOD OF VFR BEFORE TRENDING TO HIGH END MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM SE TO NW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE WEDGE COULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR INCLUDING AREAS OF DRIZZLE/-RA FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE POTENTIALLY SCATTERING OUT
FROM THE WEST AS THE WEDGE RETREATS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY SUNDAY EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. BREEZY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE DELAYED EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF WEST VA WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CF/JH
NEAR TERM...PH/WP
SHORT TERM...CF
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/PH/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
450 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SCENARIO
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY WITH
SOUTHERN END SLOWING/WEAKENING WHILE SAGGING INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
PRE FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK SUFFICIENTLY
COOL (MINUS 11 TO 12 CELSIUS AT 500MB) TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION.
CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER BUT MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. NO DISCRETE MID LEVEL IMPULSES WERE
NOTED BUT PROXIMITY OF JET AXIS SHOULD PROVIDE AREAS OF DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. NOT SURE IF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CAN FORM THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WESTERLY FLOW STARTING OUT NEAR 15
KNOTS. A WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INDICATED LATE IN
THE DAY AND THE HRRR IS SHOWING A SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST...
SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. MOS POPS CAME IN NEAR 40 PERCENT AREAWIDE AND HAVE
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GOING WITH 30
PERCENT FAR NORTH...40 PERCENT CENTRAL AND 50 PERCENT SOUTH.
EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE EVENING AS HIGH MOISTURE AND
BOUNDARIES LINGER. MOS SHOWS FRONTAL TYPE FOG/LOW STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS
VISIBILITY DOES NOT LOOK VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL ABANDON THE SRN EXTENSION OF ITS FRONTAL TROF...FRONT EXPECTED
TO GRIND TO A HALT OVER CENTRAL FL BY DAYBREAK AS IT PRESSES INTO
THE REMNANTS OF THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS. POST
FRONTAL RIDGE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WRLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW WILL PUSH
FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL FORCE POST
FRONTAL WINDS TO VEER STEADILY FROM NW TO N THRU THE DAY...THEN TO
E/NE OVERNIGHT.
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND WILL LEAD TO A WIDE PRECIP
SPREAD ACRS THE CWA. POPS INCREASING FROM 20PCT OVER VOLUSIA/NRN
LAKE TO 50PCT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE-O REGION. STRONG/SVR
WX POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED BY MID LVL THERMAL TROF PRESSING
INTO THE REGION THAT WILL PUSH H50 TEMPS INTO THE -13C/-15C RANGE
WITH LAPSE RATES THRU THE H85-H50 LYR RUNNING BTWN
6.0-7.0C/KM...AND BY AN ACTIVE SRN JET BRANCH WITH H30-H20 WINDS
RUNNING IN THE 70-90KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE PD.
LIMITED COOL AIR ADVECTION AS THE FRONT STALL OVER THE CWA AND NRLY
SFC/LOW LVL WINDS IN ITS WAKE TO VEER TO E/NE. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE U70S/L80S AREAWIDE...MIN TEMPS L/M60S INTERIOR...M/U60S
ALONG THE COAST.
WED-WED NIGHT...FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL MEANDER ACRS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE RACES INTO THE ATLC. SOME POST
FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL LINGER ACRS THE CWA...BUT THE MOST TELLING
WX FEATURE IS A SURPRISING AMT OF MID LVL DRY AIR THAT WILL WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION...PWAT VALUES LOWERING TO ARND 1.3" AREAWIDE.
STRONG WX THREAT WILL LINGER AS COOL AIR ALOFT WILL BE SLOW TO
MODIFY...H50 TEMPS HOLDING ARND -11C/-12C. HOWEVER...OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL BE AOB 30PCT AS THE FRONTAL BNDRY SHOULD FULLY WASH
OUT BY THEN...WHILE WINDS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR VEERING FROM E TO SE
WOULD GENERATE A DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE BNDRY.
ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPS AOA CLIMO...AFTN MAXES IN THE
U70S/L80S ALONG THE COAST...L/M80S INLAND. OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE
M60S INLAND...U60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST.
THU-SUN...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ATLC WILL CONTINUE A STEADY EWD
RETREAT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF WORKS ITS WAY
FROM THE NATION`S MIDSECTION TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD. H100-H70 WINDS
VEERING FROM SE TO W/SW THU THRU FRI...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU FRI WRT WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE
28/00Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD BETTER AGREEMENT. GFS INITIALLY MORE
AGGESSIVE WITH THE FROPA...PUSHING IT S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR ON SAT
WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP OVER THE BIG BEND REGION. THE TWO COME BACK
INTO SYNC BY 12Z SUN AS GFS STALLS THE FRONT BTWN THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AND LAKE-O BY 00Z SUN...GIVING THE ECMWF TO CATCH UP.
WHILE THE DEFERENCES ARE MINOR...WOULD PREFER TO KEEP POPS AOB 40PCT
THRU THE EXTENDED FCST UNTIL TIMING ASPECTS LINE UP A LITTLE BETTER.
TEMPS ALOFT DO SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...BUT REMAIN COOL ENOUGH
(AOB -9C) TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF TSRAS IN THE FCST EACH DAY.
PREVAILING SRLY WIND COMPONENT THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
KEEP TEMPS AOA CLIMO. MAX TEMPS IN THE U70S/M80S...MIN TEMPS IN THE
M/U60S.
&&
.AVIATION...STILL A CHANCE FOR IFR-MVFR CEILINGS FROM ABOUT KMCO
NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE OCCURRED THERE
BUT A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED SO BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SHOULD INHIBIT FOG. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOULD FAVOR COASTAL TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY KTIX SOUTH TO KSUA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...RECENT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTH WAS NOTED AS LOW PRESSURE FORMED NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST.
THIS HAS BROUGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS BUT THE LOW WILL
LIFT OUT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW COULD BE STRONG. WESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AS WEAKENING FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...FRNTL TROF EXPECTED TO STALL S BTWN THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AND LAKE-O AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE RACES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING STEADILY THRU THE DAY...LIGHT TO
GENTLE W/NW AT DAWN...BCMG N BY MIDDAY...BCMG NE BY SUNSET...BCMG
GENTLE TO MODERATE E/NE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT
OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...BUILDING UP 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. CHC OF SHRAS/SLGT CHC TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE.
WED-WED NIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
WELL INTO THE W ATLC. GENTLE TO MODERATE ERLY BREEZE THRU THE
DAY...BCMG SE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE
THRU THE DAY...BCMG 4-6FT AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. CHC SHRAS/SLGT CHC
TSRA MVG ONSHORE.
THU-THU NIGHT...CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A NEW FRONTAL
TROF PRESSES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NE GOMEX AND INTERACTS WITH THE NW
FLANK OF THE RETREATING RIDGE. MODERATE TO FRESH SRLY BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL...SEAS SOMEWHAT FETCH PROTECTED DUE TO THE SRLY WINDS BUT
STILL ANTICIPATE 4-5FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT SEAS OFFSHORE.
CHC SHRAS/SLGT CHC TSRAS.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AS THE FRONTAL TROF PRESSES
INTO THE NRN PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH SRLY BREEZE AT DAYBREAK...
BCMG A GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SW BREEZE BY SUNSET...THEN LIGHT TO
GENTLE W/SW BREEZE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT
OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...BCMG 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE. CHC
SHRAS/SLGT CHC TSRAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 64 77 65 / 30 10 20 10
MCO 86 67 82 64 / 40 20 30 10
MLB 84 68 79 69 / 40 20 40 20
VRB 85 68 81 69 / 50 20 40 20
LEE 85 66 83 63 / 40 10 20 10
SFB 85 66 80 63 / 40 10 30 10
ORL 85 68 82 64 / 40 20 30 10
FPR 86 68 81 69 / 50 20 50 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
416 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SCENARIO
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY WITH
SOUTHERN END SLOWING/WEAKENING WHILE SAGGING INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
PRE FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK SUFFICIENTLY
COOL (MINUS 11 TO 12 CELSIUS AT 500MB) TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION.
CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER BUT MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. NO DISCRETE MID LEVEL IMPULSES WERE
NOTED BUT PROXIMITY OF JET AXIS SHOULD PROVIDE AREAS OF DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. NOT SURE IF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CAN FORM THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WESTERLY FLOW STARTING OUT NEAR 15
KNOTS. A WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INDICATED LATE IN
THE DAY AND THE HRRR IS SHOWING A SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST...
SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. MOS POPS CAME IN NEAR 40 PERCENT AREAWIDE AND HAVE
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GOING WITH 30
PERCENT FAR NORTH...40 PERCENT CENTRAL AND 50 PERCENT SOUTH.
EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE EVENING AS HIGH MOISTURE AND
BOUNDARIES LINGER. MOS SHOWS FRONTAL TYPE FOG/LOW STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS
VISIBILITY DOES NOT LOOK VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL ABANDON THE SRN EXTENSION OF ITS FRONTAL TROF...FRONT EXPECTED
TO GRIND TO A HALT OVER CENTRAL FL BY DAYBREAK AS IT PRESSES INTO
THE REMNANTS OF THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS. POST
FRONTAL RIDGE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WRLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW WILL PUSH
FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL FORCE POST
FRONTAL WINDS TO VEER STEADILY FROM NW TO N THRU THE DAY...THEN TO
E/NE OVERNIGHT.
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND WILL LEAD TO A WIDE PRECIP
SPREAD ACRS THE CWA. POPS INCREASING FROM 20PCT OVER VOLUSIA/NRN
LAKE TO 50PCT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE-O REGION. STRONG/SVR
WX POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED BY MID LVL THERMAL TROF PRESSING
INTO THE REGION THAT WILL PUSH H50 TEMPS INTO THE -13C/-15C RANGE
WITH LAPSE RATES THRU THE H85-H50 LYR RUNNING BTWN
6.0-7.0C/KM...AND BY AN ACTIVE SRN JET BRANCH WITH H30-H20 WINDS
RUNNING IN THE 70-90KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE PD.
LIMITED COOL AIR ADVECTION AS THE FRONT STALL OVER THE CWA AND NRLY
SFC/LOW LVL WINDS IN ITS WAKE TO VEER TO E/NE. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE U70S/L80S AREAWIDE...MIN TEMPS L/M60S INTERIOR...M/U60S
ALONG THE COAST.
WED-WED NIGHT...FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL MEANDER ACRS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE RACES INTO THE ATLC. SOME POST
FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL LINGER ACRS THE CWA...BUT THE MOST TELLING
WX FEATURE IS A SURPRISING AMT OF MID LVL DRY AIR THAT WILL WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION...PWAT VALUES LOWERING TO ARND 1.3" AREAWIDE.
STRONG WX THREAT WILL LINGER AS COOL AIR ALOFT WILL BE SLOW TO
MODIFY...H50 TEMPS HOLDING ARND -11C/-12C. HOWEVER...OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL BE AOB 30PCT AS THE FRONTAL BNDRY SHOULD FULLY WASH
OUT BY THEN...WHILE WINDS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR VEERING FROM E TO SE
WOULD GENERATE A DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE BNDRY.
ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPS AOA CLIMO...AFTN MAXES IN THE
U70S/L80S ALONG THE COAST...L/M80S INLAND. OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE
M60S INLAND...U60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST.
THU-SUN...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...STILL A CHANCE FOR IFR-MVFR CEILINGS FROM ABOUT KMCO
NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE OCCURRED THERE
BUT A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED SO BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SHOULD INHIBIT FOG. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOULD FAVOR COASTAL TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY KTIX SOUTH TO KSUA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...RECENT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTH WAS NOTED AS LOW PRESSURE FORMED NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST.
THIS HAS BROUGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS BUT THE LOW WILL
LIFT OUT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW COULD BE STRONG. WESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AS WEAKENING FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...FRNTL TROF EXPECTED TO STALL S BTWN THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AND LAKE-O AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE RACES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING STEADILY THRU THE DAY...LIGHT TO
GENTLE W/NW AT DAWN...BCMG N BY MIDDAY...BCMG NE BY SUNSET...BCMG
GENTLE TO MODERATE E/NE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT
OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...BUILDING UP 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. CHC OF SHRAS/SLGT CHC TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE.
WED-WED NIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
WELL INTO THE W ATLC. GENTLE TO MODERATE ERLY BREEZE THRU THE
DAY...BCMG SE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE
THRU THE DAY...BCMG 4-6FT AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. CHC SHRAS/SLGT CHC
TSRA MVG ONSHORE.
THU-THU NIGHT...CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A NEW FRONTAL
TROF PRESSES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NE GOMEX AND INTERACTS WITH THE NW
FLANK OF THE RETREATING RIDGE. MODERATE TO FRESH SRLY BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL...SEAS SOMEWHAT FETCH PROTECTED DUE TO THE SRLY WINDS BUT
STILL ANTICIPATE 4-5FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT SEAS OFFSHORE.
CHC SHRAS/SLGT CHC TSRAS.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AS THE FRONTAL TROF PRESSES
INTO THE NRN PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH SRLY BREEZE AT DAYBREAK...
BCMG A GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SW BREEZE BY SUNSET...THEN LIGHT TO
GENTLE W/SW BREEZE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT
OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...BCMG 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE. CHC
SHRAS/SLGT CHC TSRAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 64 77 65 / 30 10 20 10
MCO 86 67 82 64 / 40 20 30 10
MLB 84 68 79 69 / 40 20 40 20
VRB 85 68 81 69 / 50 20 40 20
LEE 85 66 83 63 / 40 10 20 10
SFB 85 66 80 63 / 40 10 30 10
ORL 85 68 82 64 / 40 20 30 10
FPR 86 68 81 69 / 50 20 50 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
206 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT... RESULTING IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL DURING NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN SHIELD HAS CLEARED THE CSRA AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE SUPPORT FOR THE RAIN SHIFTS QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. THERE WERE A FEW SPOTS THAT HAD SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN LEE AND SOUTHEASTERN
RICHLAND COUNTIES...BUT THAT ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED. ALL CURRENT
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
DESPITE THE STRONGEST SUPPORT COMING TO AN END...THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY AND MID LEVEL
CVA TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD END BY DAWN AS DEEPER DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT FOG THIS MORNING. THE MOS
GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE LOW VSBYS FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT THE HRRR SHOWS ONLY PATCHES OF FOG.
CONSIDERING THAT ALL AREAS DID RECEIVE SOME RAIN TODAY...I WILL
HOLD ON TO THE FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY MONDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION
MONDAY. WITH TROUGH MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA...FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY
BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED AND SHALLOW. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS BY
MIDDAY...GUIDANCE POPS VERY LOW SO REMOVED POPS. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY AND DOWNSLOPE MORE LIKELY...SO
WARM DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80
DEGREES.
COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY REGION. GUIDANCE REASONABLE IN THE 40S.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES/BUT COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND FAIR WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST
BUILDS EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND THEN EAST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY FROM THE GULF COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN HIGH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET-MAX AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY UNCERTAIN. FRONT MAY LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT CLEARING EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR AROUND 15Z.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY. LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL SC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...CLEARING ALL TAF SITES BY 09Z. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
TEMPORARILY REDUCED AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT. HOWEVER FOG IS LESS
CERTAIN. SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FAVOR FOG ALTHOUGH
DECENT MIXING MAY OCCUR DUE TO A 30 KT LLJ.
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS THEN BEGIN
SLOWLY IMPROVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AROUND 15Z WITH WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...UP TO 20 KTS. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
TO NW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHES
FURTHER EAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
113 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY...THEN WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOW STRATUS
CONTINUES TO FILL IN EARLY THIS MORNING. WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE
STATUS BUILD DOWN AND POSSIBLE FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...SURFACE LOW PRES WILL BE OFF THE SE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
AROUND DAYBREAK...DEEPENING AND MOVING TO THE NE. LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS MORE WESTERLY AND INDICATIONS THAT MID LVL NVA AND BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ANY LINGERING SHOWERS VERY ISOLATED EARLY TO
MID MORNING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND IT WILL DESTABILIZE. HOWEVER PWATS CONTINUE TO
STEADILY FALL BELOW 1 INCH AND WITH A SINKING W TO WSW FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN PERSISTENT MODEL TRENDS. WHILE WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM NEAR AN INLAND LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH...WE OPTED TO KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
RISE TO THE LOWER 80S WITH A FEW MID 80S IF SUNSHINE BECOMES
PREVALENT AFTER EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT IS
A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BUT OVERALL TEMP SCHEMES WERE
LOOKING GOOD WITH LOWS WELL INLAND IN THE UPPER 40S WITH MID 50S
CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TUESDAY...COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE COMBINED
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR
REGION. SUNSHINE IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 NEAR
THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE MID 70S ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-16.
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE OFFSHORE OF
THE MID ATLC COAST TURNING AFTERNOON WINDS ONSHORE. THE ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS DRY WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGING. THERE COULD BE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME COASTAL STRATCU LATE.
HIGHS WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO HANG ON.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT TAPS...PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO WENT WITH A BLEND THAT KEEPS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS WILL BECOME FURTHER ENTRENCHED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNRISE. THERE IS A RISK FOR CIGS DROPPING BELOW ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS...ESPCLY AT KSAV. IN FACT...THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CIGS DROPPING TO AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT KSAV...BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE CIGS THAT LOW ATTM. WILL CARRY PREVAILING IFR WITH
TEMPO LIFR AT KSAV. CONFIDENCE ON FOG FORMATION IS RATHER LOW
RIGHT NOW AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MAY SNEAK IN ABOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY LIMIT THE STATUS
BUILD DOWN SOMEWHAT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AND AMEND
AS NEEDED. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING AND MAY
EVEN SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE FILLING BACK IN AS A CUMULUS
FIELD DEVELOPS/THICKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT...AROUND 03 AT KCHS AND AFTER 06Z AT KSAV.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. BOTH THE RAP AND H3R SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20-25 KT WINDS
DEVELOPING...ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WILL HOLD OFF ON
RAISING FLAGS...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
WSW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONGER FLOW NEAR 15 KT WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER OFF BEYOND 20 NM OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY. OVERALL 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N AND NNE LATE. THE SURGING DOES
NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG ON THE 12Z SUNDAY MODEL RUN BUT WE
MAINTAINED INCREASES TO 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT BY TUESDAY...
HIGHER OFFSHORE WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNLESS SOME LOCALIZED PINCHING DEVELOPS.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH ON THURSDAY. DURING THIS TIME WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH NEAR SHORE SURGES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST SEAS APPEAR LIKELY OVER AT LEAST OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS AND PERHAPS IN PARTS OF THE NEAR SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA
MARINE LEGS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THERE WILL BE NO UPPER AIR FLIGHTS FROM KCHS /STATION 72208/ UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. A CRITICAL COMPONENT OF THE UPPER AIR EQUIPMENT
HAS FAILED. A PART IS ON ORDER...BUT IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME
WHEN THE PART WILL ARRIVE.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
304 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...
304 AM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN INVOLVES THE STRATUS DECK AND TIMING
ITS DEPARTURE TODAY AND SECONDARILY, THE IMPACT THE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY. GOES IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS SLOWING SINCE
EARLY THIS EVENING, WHICH WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST STRATUS HANGING
AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS EASTERN CWA AND LIKELY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME HOLES HAVE POPPED IN THE STRATUS DECK
RECENTLY OVER WISCONSIN, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL HOLES PROBABLY
OPENING UP WITH SOME WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TODAY. EVEN SO,
MORE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN EARLIER GUIDANCE
SUPPORTED AND THROW IN A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOOK FOR
EVEN COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE SUNNY WITH TYPICAL EARLY SPRING TEMPS, RANGING FROM
40S NEAR THE LAKE TO MID-UPPER 50S WELL INLAND.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
304 AM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FOCUS HEADING INTO MID-WEEK IS ON THE STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE PAC NW WHICH SHOULD AMPLIFY AND DIG FARTHER SOUTH INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY BEFORE EJECTING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS STATES MIDWEEK. DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS WOULD SUPPORT
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIP IN THE WAA REGIME REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR CWA. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 60S
WITH STRONG ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PREVENT LAKE COOLING.
SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE SFC LOW DEEPENING TO SUB-
990MB WED NIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP A HOWLING SOUTHERLY WIND AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW TEMPS AS MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 50 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS ARE DRAWN NORTH INTO THE AREA. TIME OF DAY SHOULD
GREATLY LIMIT THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS FAR EAST WED NIGHT,
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO
BE A REASONABLE BET INTO THE NIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPS AND HERALDING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES BY AFTERNOON.
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS BY FRIDAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE WEEKEND. VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER
EARLY APRIL SUN ANGLE AND WEAK S/W ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE
TROUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME ISOLD TO WLDY SCTD SHOWERS
FRIDAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME GRAUPEL OR WET SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN
DEPENDING ON HOW COLD AIR ALOFT ENDS UP BEING.
QUESTIONS DO ARISE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW
BOTH BEGINNING TO STEP BACK FROM THE IDEA OF AN IMPRESSIVE LATE
SEASON ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOR THE AREA. IN FACT, LATEST EURO WOULD
EVEN SUPPORT ABOVE AVG TEMPS NOW FOR SUNDAY WITH A CLIPPER PASSING
TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE RECENT VOLATILITY IN THE MODEL RUNS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH IF
RECENT TRENDS ARE A SIGN OF MODELS LOCKING ONTO A NEW SOLUTION
THEN THE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN
ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS NEXT WEEKEND WOULD NOT MATERIALIZE, AT
LEAST NOT IN OUR AREA. STAY TUNED...
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERNS/CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WITH
CONTINUED MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MIDDAY AND THEN WITH A LAKE
BREEZE SHIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP HAS EXITED TO THE EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON FOR
MOST OF THE MORNING WITH A LARGE STRATUS SHIELD STILL OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1500FT WITH SOME
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SLIGHT LOWERING IN THE 1200-1500FT
RANGE...BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
NORTHWEST WIND IN PLACE WILL HOLD THIS MORNING INTO MOST OF TODAY
BUT WITH A WIND SHIFT STILL EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
LAKE BREEZE. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH EXACT TIMING BUT AT THIS
POINT...THE 21/22Z TIMEFRAME STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ALSO ON SPEEDS AND HAVE LEFT 08KT WITH THIS WIND
SHIFT...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SPEEDS TO
REACH OR EXCEED 10KT.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CDT
WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WINDS ARE IN THE NORTH NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND LOOK TO
STAY THIS DIRECTION THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS LOW HAS BEEN DEEPENING
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO HAS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AS THIS LOW HAS STRENGTHENED...SPEEDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 30KT. THESE SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH A DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVERHEAD. THIS DIMINISHING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH WINDS TURNING
MORE SOUTHERLY OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOUTHERLY SPEEDS REALLY INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SPEEDS LIKELY BACK UP TO 30KT.
GALES DO APPEAR POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS POSSIBILITY. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY
FORECASTING GALES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...STILL COULD
BE A POSSIBILITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL
3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
247 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Deep cyclonic flow persists across central and southeast Illinois
early this morning on the back side of yesterday`s storm system.
However, the upper-level flow is expected to trend increasingly
neutral today, while high pressure will begin to build in at the
surface. This scenario is supportive of quiet weather across the
area today.
The main fly in the ointment is the extent of low cloud cover today,
and its potential impact on temperatures. Most of the area should
start the day cloudy in the cyclonic flow and associated wrap-around
moisture. A weak low-level trof sinking toward the area from the
Great Lakes will likely have the back edge of the clouds push
slightly westward early today as it passes through. However, by
afternoon, in the wake of this feature, expect significant clearing
to have taken place. Widespread highs in the 50s, much cooler than
yesterday across much of the forecast area, look like a good bet.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Main concern for this part of the forecast period remains with rain
chances around mid week, along with the potential for colder weather
next weekend.
In the shorter term, high pressure will be drifting through the
Midwest tonight and Tuesday, with dry weather prevailing.
Temperatures expected to rise into the 60s both Tuesday and
Wednesday as a strong southerly flow sets up behind the departing
high.
Area of low pressure aloft, seen on water vapor imagery near
Portland OR this morning, continues to be progged by the evening
models to strengthen into a closed low as it sinks into western Utah
by early Wednesday morning. GFS and ECMWF track this feature to near
Minneapolis by Thursday morning, while the NAM significantly lags
behind and was not considered in the forecast. Some variation in how
fast the moisture surge will lead to some precipitation, with the
GFS bringing showers into the western CWA in the morning, while the
ECMWF and Canadian hold off until afternoon. These models do agree
in more widespread showers and storms Wednesday night, and have
increased rain chances to the categorical range (80%). GFS increases
precipitable water values to around 1.2-1.3 inches by Wednesday
evening, with some heavier showers possible. Nighttime timing not
especially favorable for severe weather, with latest SPC Day3
outlook keeping the slight risk just to our west, although there
will be a strong low level jet into our area (GFS forecast soundings
showing 40 knot winds only about 600 feet off the surface). Most
precipitation will be out of the area by late Thursday morning.
Latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models are keeping the core of the
colder air north of the Great Lakes this weekend, with a short
period of 850 mb temperatures of -5 to -7C Saturday morning in our
area concurrent with a fast moving shortwave. Blended model guidance
is locking onto this, and keeps most of the forecast area above
freezing Saturday morning and Sunday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
The back edge of clearing has reached our far SW counties, with
dry air expected to continue to push into Illinois over the next
6-10 hours. Clearing will be battling the lingering low level
moisture and influence of cyclonic flow aloft over NE Illinois.
The HRRR indicated MVFR clouds retrograding back toward PIA to SPI
from eastern Illinois in the late morning and afternoon. The NAM
and GFS both point toward clearing out all TAF sites by afternoon.
have leaned toward keeping clouds in a little longer tomorrow for
now. Clearing should eventually develop under the advancing
surface high pressure later Monday afternoon.
West-northwest winds will remain steady the rest of the night,
with 10-15kt. Wind directions should veer to the NW during the
morning, while maintaining 10-14kt through mid-afternoon. NW winds will
weaken under the cool high pressure Monday night.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1248 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...
211 PM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
IN THE NEAR TERM. AS OF 19Z...A COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT OFF OF
KLOT RADAR AND AREA OBS...AND STRETCHES FROM NEAR ORD SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO FORD COUNTY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW SITES IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA FLIRTING WITH THE 70 MARK. AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE
40S AND FOR RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ANY INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...THEN EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. ANY LINGERING STRATUS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS IN...AND WINDS SHOULD DROP TO 10 KT OR
LESS AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S ON MONDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE FRONT...BUT ONCE WINDS TURN OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 40S.
BMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
258 PM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LOWERED LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR
SKIES AND WEAK WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S. THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST TUESDAY...AND
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS SLOWLY BUILD
IN SO THINKING THE STRENGTHENING SPRING SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO RAISE
TEMPS TO AROUND 60 AWAY FROM THE LAKE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT
IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE.
THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MODELS SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF RAIN. KEPT A DRY FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE. HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS
INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS SOUNDINGS FEATURE SHALLOW SATURATION. THE
LOW/S WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG IT. THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE MODELS DO
NOT FEATURE MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND CAPE APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY
ELEVATED. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AND THUNDER COVERAGE. HAVE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35
MPH OR HIGHER PSBL.
HAVE MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE LAKE AND ITS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. THE EURO HOLDS ON TO PRECIP LONGER THURSDAY MORNING
SO KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE OR HIGHER RANGE ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH. TEMPS COULD BE COOLER THAN
FORECAST...BUT MATCHED HIGH TEMPS TO THE MORNING 925 MB TEMPS OF +10
TO +14 C. ADDITIONAL VORT STREAMERS ROTATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SO
KEPT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
30S AND COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTHWEST OF I-55 THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH. COLD AIR ALSO PUNCHES DOWN WITH
THE TROUGH LEADING TO HIGHS AROUND 50 FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PASSES
OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES SATURDAY. THINKING PRECIP WILL STAY OVER THE
LAKE LATE THIS WEEK AND TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN
THE 20S ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERNS/CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WITH
CONTINUED MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MIDDAY AND THEN WITH A LAKE
BREEZE SHIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP HAS EXITED TO THE EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON FOR
MOST OF THE MORNING WITH A LARGE STRATUS SHIELD STILL OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1500FT WITH SOME
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SLIGHT LOWERING IN THE 1200-1500FT
RANGE...BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
NORTHWEST WIND IN PLACE WILL HOLD THIS MORNING INTO MOST OF TODAY
BUT WITH A WIND SHIFT STILL EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
LAKE BREEZE. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH EXACT TIMING BUT AT THIS
POINT...THE 21/22Z TIMEFRAME STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ALSO ON SPEEDS AND HAVE LEFT 08KT WITH THIS WIND
SHIFT...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SPEEDS TO
REACH OR EXCEED 10KT.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
258 PM CDT
HEADLINES...THINKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL TAKE A
LITTLE LONGER TO FORM...SO WILL NOT START THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY DUE TO HIGH WINDS.
WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS. WINDS BECOME MORE UNIFORM OUT OF THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
OVER THE REGION. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KT BY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT LOW FORMS OVER THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS AS IT PASSES OVER THE LAKE THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL VARY FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE LOW TO NORTHEAST NORTH
OF THE LAKE. MODELS ALSO DISAGREE ON HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE LOW THURSDAY. COULD SEE GUSTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST. WINDS
COULD ALSO BE HIGHER OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE BEHIND THE
LOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND GALES COULD OCCUR. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WIND SPEEDS WITH THE LOW. ANOTHER LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER THE
NORTHERN LAKES SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF GALES. DESPITE
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION...MODELS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW SO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN GALES NEXT WEEKEND AT
THIS TIME.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1146 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Showers are quickly departing into Indiana, as the cold front
pulls farther away to the east. West-northwest winds are still
gusting to 20 mph at times, especially east of I-55. Those gusts
should diminish a bit after midnight, but sustained winds will
remain in the 10-15 mph range. Drier air aloft will gradually
erode the cloud cover in Illinois from west to east, starting
later tonight. HRRR guidance shows clearing reaching I-55 by
sunrise, with clearing in the remainder of the area expected
Monday morning. The colder low temps in the mid 30s will be more
likely in areas that see clearing west of I-55, with upper 30s to
around 40 east of there.
Updates this evening were mainly to the PoP and weather grids,
along with hourly temp trends. Updated forecast info is already
available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Cold front making its way through Central Illinois this afternoon.
For now, the majority of the associated precip is well behind the
boundary and dominated with moderate to heavy rain. Some
destabilization out ahead of the advancing boundary is expected to
continue this afternoon mainly southeast of a line from Shelbyville
to Paris...but the area of concern continues to shift east. The
MUCAPES are confined to the southeast and continue to move that way
as cool outflow from the rainfall to the NW moves across the
surface. Discrete cells ahead of the boundary will remain possible
through the afternoon until the cold front moves through. So far,
the cap is holding with some cloud cover slowing the development of
the few echoes on radar. As far as the forecast goes...have rain
showers continuing past 00Z into the evening behind the boundary and
up until 06z, diminishing from west to east. Keeping much of the
clouds in place for the overnight as the cloud deck is still well
defined on sat imagery well back into IA. Cooler air will drop the
overnight lows into the 30s...with areas to the west getting colder
where some clearing will allow for more efficient radiational
cooling towards dawn... and around 40 in the east where the clouds
will be more persistent.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
High pressure will move across the area Monday and Tuesday with dry
and pleasant spring-like weather. However, another weather system
will develop in the plains and move toward the area mid week. With
the high pressure well to the west, windy south winds will bring the
return of moisture to the midwest ahead of the system. Models look
in good agreement that pcpn will remain west of the CWA through Tue
night, but then pcpn becomes likely Wed afternoon well ahead of the
front, that will still be back west of the area. So, could be two
areas of showers and thunderstorms during the day. One over our CWA
and then another back west near the front. Any rate, will have a
chance of pcpn for Wed and then likely for Wed night as the front
moves through the area. Once the sfc system moves through, the 500mb
low pressure area and associated trough will rotate through the area
Thur through Fri, so chances of pcpn will remain over portions of
the CWA through the rest of the week. Then expecting dry and cooler
conditions for next weekend.
Temps will get warmer ahead of the next system and then cool a bit
before the next one. Then cooler temps, with lows below freezing
possible next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
The back edge of clearing has reached our far SW counties, with
dry air expected to continue to push into Illinois over the next
6-10 hours. Clearing will be battling the lingering low level
moisture and influence of cyclonic flow aloft over NE Illinois.
The HRRR indicated MVFR clouds retrograding back toward PIA to SPI
from eastern Illinois in the late morning and afternoon. The NAM
and GFS both point toward clearing out all TAF sites by afternoon.
have leaned toward keeping clouds in a little longer tomorrow for
now. Clearing should eventually develop under the advancing
surface high pressure later Monday afternoon.
West-northwest winds will remain steady the rest of the night,
with 10-15kt. Wind directions should veer to the NW during the
morning, while maintaining 10-14kt through mid-afternoon. NW winds will
weaken under the cool high pressure Monday night.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
312 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
An upper level trough across the pacific northwest will dig
southeast into NV and UT Tonight and amplify. A downstream upper
level ridge will amplify across the the central and southern plains.
A lee surface trough will deepen across eastern CO which will cause
south-southeast winds across eastern KS to increase through the
afternoon hours to 10 to 20 MPH with gusts of 15 to 30 MPH. The
stronger surface winds will occur across north central KS. The
southerly winds will help to warm high temperatures into the mid to
upper 60s.
Tonight...the low-level jet will increase across western OK and the
western half of KS through the night. This will result in the
transport of deeper moisture northward into western KS. The
resulting isentropic lift will cause elevated showers and
thunderstorms to late tonight across west central KS. A few of these
showers and elevated thunderstorms may move into the far western
counties towards sunrise. Most of the numerical models show the
showers and elevated storms remaining west of the CWA. I placed a 15-
20 percent pop in the western counties late tonight, in case a few
of these elevated storms reach the western counties. The model
forecasts show only 100 to 400 j/kg of MUCAPE, so these elevated
storms will not be strong or severe. southeast surface winds will
keep overnight lows in the lower to mid 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Will keep some small pops going through the day Tuesday as
isentropic lift weakens but southwest flow aloft could bring any
precip on east. High cloud should stay rather thick with strong
south winds beginning to saturate the lower levels in central
Kansas. Have lowered highs a bit with more cloud expectations. Will
need to continue to watch wind speeds in the afternoon and night,
but a more backed lower level profile suggests less concern than
before. Am less convinced of precip development Tuesday night into
early Wednesday with weak elevated mixed layer in place, but
moistening does occur aloft under diffluent jet, and could yet get
some sprinkles in the saturating lower levels.
Concern for severe storms remains for Wednesday afternoon and night.
Upper trough rotating out of the western low pushes into the Central
Plains in the day and on east into the Mississippi Valley Wednesday
night with 500mb height falls around 110 m during the day. Dryline
will push through much of Kansas during the day, but differences
remain on timing and how much destabilization can occur as winds
remain stout from the south with mixed layer aloft for a persistent
stratus scenario, though CAPE could exceed 1000 J/kg. Strong wind
fields aloft with 500mb winds in the 50-70kt range will bring
considerable shear potential, but again much in the specifics remain
to be desired in the lower levels based on timing and mixing
uncertainty.
Passage of the upper wave should dry the column out enough to keep
any thing more than a few sprinkles in check from any weak northern
branch energy Thursday into Friday. Upper flow backs into the
weekend with old surface ridge to the south keeping moisture return
retarded. High temps should moderate from the 50s to the 60s during
these periods.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Surface ridge over the area this evening which will move east
through the period allowing return flow to develop over the plains.
00 UTC TOP sounding was extremely dry. Two issues concerning the
TAFs. First, debated adding some BR around sunrise. Although there
may be shallow fog in low areas, decided against mentioning it at
KTOP/KMHK due to the very dry airmass and the surface ridge
already southeast of the area by morning. Seconding, as return
flow develops Monday along with good mixing, expect gusty winds
during the afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Expect a very high fire danger across the CWA this afternoon. Some
areas across the western half of the CWA may be near red flag
conditions. As the lee surface trough across eastern CO deepens this
afternoon the surface pressure gradient will increase across central
KS causing south-southeast surface winds to increase to 15 to 20 MPH
with some gusts up to 30 MPH. The RAP forecast soundings show deeper
mixing up to 800mb across north central KS which would cause
dewpoints to mix out into the upper teens and lower 20s causing
minimum RHs to drop below 20 percent. Since the winds will be
slightly backed to the south-southeast the RAP may be mixing the
boundary layer too deep. At this time I`m leaning more towards a
model blend in which several members show the boundary layer only
mixing up to around 850mb which would keep afternoon dewpoints in the
mid to upper 20s and result in minimum RHs in the 21-27 percent
range. The stronger wind gusts probably will not occur until the
late afternoon hours.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Johnson
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
238 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS
WE HAVE AMPLE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM (MORE SO THAN LAST SATURDAY
MORNING AND WE SAW HOW THAT ENDED UP BEING A VERY CLOUDY DAY).
WITH THESE CHANGES WE ALSO UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS MORNING, THEN HAVE THEM HOLD STEADY OR ONLY A 1 TO 3 TEMP
RISE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE CLOUDS LOCKED IN. FINALLY...ADDED
SOME DRIZZLE AS WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING
UP ON UPSTREAM RADARS. REST OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE/COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE ON OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THAT TRANSITION TO
DRIZZLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1056 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
CONTINUING TO MONITOR AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KY...MAKING THEIR WAY INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA.AT
THIS POINT...THE LINE HAS LOST MOST OF ITS FORMATION AND ANY CELLS
SEEM TO BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND. NOT TO SAY WE MAY NOT SEE AN
ISOLATED STRONG CELL MOVE INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING STILL...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE UNFAVORABLE. DID
ANOTHER UPDATE TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
ONGOING RADAR TRENDS...AND WHAT IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA. ALSO LOADED
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS INTO
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST GRIDS TO MAKE SURE THEY WERE ON PAR WITH
ONGOING CONDITIONS. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO
NDFD AND THE WEB. HWO SEEMS TO STILL BE IN DECENT SHAPE...THOUGH
IF STORMS CONTINUE THEIR DIMINISHING TREND WE MAY NEED TO REMOVE
SMALL HAIL WORDING. ZFP IS STILL VALID.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 908 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MADE A FEW UPDATES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER TIMING FOR OUR
CWA...BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HI RES MODEL
OUTPUT. OVERALL POPS ARE STILL VERY WELL ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HOWEVER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP UP
AHEAD WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE CWA. AS SUCH...UPGRADED MUCH
OF THE CWA TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...THEN BLENDED INTO ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE REGION. WEATHER GRIDS
WERE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE INCOMING
PRECIPITATION IN CASE ANY FURTHER UPDATES ARE NEEDED. SHORT TERM
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. A NEW ZONE
FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT TO TAKE OUT EARLY EVENING WORDING...AS WELL
AS CAPTURE THE UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS. ALSO SENT OUT A NEW HWO TO
REMOVE AFTER 9PM WORDING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN OHIO VALLEY WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT RACING
EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE
DRIVER OF STORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...WELL AHEAD THE BOUNDARY...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WHILE THICK CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
CLOUDS LIMITED THE TEMP RISE SOMEWHAT IN THE EAST WITH SOME MID
TO UPPER 60S NOTED WHILE IN THE WEST AND NORTH READINGS REACHED
INTO THE 70S THANKS TO THINNER CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE ARE
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...CONTINUING THEIR CLIMB AS THE AIR
MASS MOISTENS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM...AND ALSO ADDING TO
THE BUILDING INSTABILITY AS OF MID AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY
PASSING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WHILE A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON ITS WAY
NORTHEAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
THE OTHER MODELS WITH MUCH BETTER CLUSTERING NOTED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES.
EVEN SO...THIS WILL PROVIDE A DYNAMIC PUNCH TO ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
BLEND FOR WX DETAILS...WITH A SIGNIFICANT LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND
NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE A LATE SPRING EVENING AS AN APPROACHING
FRONT LIKELY BRINGS STORMS TO THE AREA...CROSSING FROM WEST TO
EAST TOWARD...AND JUST AFTER...MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA IS MAXIMIZING
ITS CAPE AND DESTABILIZING. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED TO ACTIVATE THIS POTENTIAL AND THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
WELL AFTER SUNSET AND INTO FALLING INSTABILITY. WHEN THE FRONT
DOES ARRIVE...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ACCOMPANY IT
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...DUE TO THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS
THE MAIN THREATS. WILL BRING THIS FRONT THROUGH IN THE GRIDS WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS AND A QUICK DIMINISHMENT ON ITS BACKSIDE ALONG
WITH AN END TO THE STORM THREAT POST FROPA. CAA FOLLOWS THROUGH
DAWN AND THEN LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER DURING THE DAY MONDAY
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME PATCHY
FROST ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES THAT CLEAR OUT EARLIER
IN THE NIGHT AND FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN A CAA PATTERN.
AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE WET MOS NUMBERS TONIGHT AND
SIMILARLY LOW THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND SURFACE HIGH PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MORNINGS WILL START OFF
COOL WITH FROST BEING A POTENTIAL CONCERN...BUT WE MAKE UP FOR IT
WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE A
AMPLIFIED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL TRY TO MOVE EAST...AND WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS IT DOES. WHILE THIS TAKES PLACE A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AND EJECT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND PHASING
DIFFERENCES OVERALL MODELS SEEM TO BE MATCHING UP WELL FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WE GET CAUGHT IN CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE SPOKES RIDING AROUND A DEEPER LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AND THIS WILL FURTHER ENFORCE THE COLD AIR ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. RIGHT NOW THIS FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...AND THE MODEL BLEND KEEPS IT DRY ON SUNDAY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVES TO KEEP THE END OF THE
WEEK COOL WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY AND
BY SUNDAY SOME MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOW
CIGS DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME
DRIZZLE. CIGS COULD BORDER ON IFR EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING
MORE MVFR BY MIDDAY. KEPT MVFR CIGS AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
IT MAY BE HARD TO LOOSE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
453 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TRACKING E THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUPPORTING SOME
MID CLOUDS OVER ERN ND AND NRN MN. AT SFC...TIGHT GRADIENT ON
BACKSIDE OF LOW CENTERED OVER THE SRN TIP OF LAKE HURON HAS
SUPPORTED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
THE SFC LOW COMBINED WITH ONSHORE/UPSLOPE NORTHERLY WINDS HAS
SUPPORTED DZ/FZDZ AND PATCHY FOG OVER PORTIONS OF NCNTRL UPPER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING FZDZ TO CAUSE MANY ISSUES ON
ROADS/SIDEWALKS AS WARM GROUND AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT
ICE ACCUMULATION. AT SAME TIME...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE DRAWING IN
INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR FROM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER WRN AND NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER MI.
MODEL SOUNDINGS...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST DRIER AIR AT
LOW-LVLS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH CONTINUED ADVANCEMENT OF SFC RDGG FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS DRYING SHOULD EFFECTIVELY PUT END TO LINGERING
DZ/PATCHY FOG BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS...BUT
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF SKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER PORTIONS OF
NCNTRL/ERN CWA UNDER LINGERING CYCLONIC UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW.
WITH SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...EXPECT A SEASONABLY COLD FROSTY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
FOCUS ON WED NIGHT-THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR GLANCES THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN SHOWING A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE BEING KICKED E BY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE NORTHERN STREAM PUNCH WILL CAUSE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS PHASING AND JET STREAM COUPLING
OCCUR...AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH BETTER PHASING.
MORE MINOR...RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. THE 00Z/28 GFS AND 12Z/27 ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT...WITH THE 00Z/28 GLOBAL GEM TRENDING TOWARD THESE MODELS.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z/28 NAM IS VERY DIFFERENT...SO WILL NOT USE THAT
MODEL AND STICK WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. DYNAMIC COOLING ALONG WITH
CAA WILL TRANSITION RAIN TO SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THE 850MB LOW
TRACK LATE WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT...THEN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT
PULLS OUT THU. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 984MB SFC LOW
MOVING FROM GRB AT 12Z THU TO NEAR THE STRAITS OF MACK AT 981MB BY
18Z THU...THEN INTO CANADA BY 00Z FRI. THIS TRACK RESULTS IN SEVERAL
INCHES (POSSIBLY OVER A FOOT GIVEN QPF OF 1-1.25 INCHES FROM THE
ECMWF AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES FROM THE GFS...BOTH DURING TIMES WHEN
PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW) OF HEAVY SNOW TO MAINLY NW OF A
LINE FROM MUNISING TO IRON MOUNTAIN...WITH THE HEAVIEST SWATH FROM
WATERSMEET TO BARAGA/L`ANSE. THIS IS A PRETTY VOLATILE SYSTEM...SO
EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. BIG FOCUS
RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...SO STAY TUNED.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -13C FRI...WHICH WILL BE GOOD FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE
TOWARD A GLANCING SHOT AND WARMER OVERALL. WILL KEEP LIKELY LES POPS
SAT INTO SUN...BUT TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
DRYING FROM WEST HAS ALLOWED CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT KIWD BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT IN WEAK
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS AT KCMX TO IMPROVE FROM
VLIFR TO AT LEAST IFR OR MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN
THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE AT KSAW ALTHOUGH EVEN
THERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR LATE TONIGHT AS DZ/FZDZ ENDS. AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE INROADS...ALL TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR MON MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
WITH LOW PRES TRACKING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING..NNW WINDS 15-25KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY. CLOSER TO AN ADVANCING HIGH PRES RIDGE...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER
15KT...WILL THEN BECOME THE RULE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT THRU AT
LEAST TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. SE TO S WINDS WILL
THEN BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TUE THRU WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF FLOW... STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...PROBABLY TO 20-30KT. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES WED NIGHT AND A LOW PRES WAVE TRACKS LONG THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE TO NEAR 30KT WED NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST NE-N GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THU/THU EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE ON FRI BEFORE A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF GALES
DURING THE DAY SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
352 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONE WEAKER SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS AIDED RAIN AND SOME SNOW THAT HAS SPREAD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN UPPER MI TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS OVER
MN/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO. A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING OVER
MO. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE HAS QUICKLY STREAKED NE ACROSS
SE WI...NRN LAKE MI AND INTO ERN UPPER MI...FORCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF UPPER JET EXTENDING ENE FROM THE UPPER LAKES AND CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN FGEN IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS.
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...FOCUS WILL BE ON ENDING LINGERING PCPN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN THAT HAS DEVELOPED NE INTO ERN UPPER MI MAY
BRUSH THE SE FCST AREA THRU THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE SWINGS FROM MO
ACROSS SE LWR MI. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...ARRIVAL OF DEEP
LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING AN
END TO PATCHY -RA/-SN. HOWEVER...WITH MID LEVELS GRADUALLY DRYING
OUT WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERS AT THE LOW-LEVELS...SOME
-DZ/-FZDZ MAY DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS UNDER RATHER PRONOUNCED
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC NORTHERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH CLEARING IS NOT FAR
AWAY OVER NW LAKE SUPERIOR...LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING SUGGEST AT LEAST THE NCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA WILL BE
TAPPING THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS NNE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR -DZ/-FZDZ. IT ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON ACROSS EVEN THE W...PARTICULARY IN THE FACE OF
CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOULD ANY CLEARING OCCUR OVER THE
W...RADIATIONAL FOG COULD DEVELOP. WITH MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...RAISED MINS FOR TONIGHT TO MOSTLY THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S. IF
CLOUDS BREAK OVER THE FAR W...TEMPS WILL FALL TOWARD 20F.
EXPECT ANY -DZ/-FZDZ TO START THE DAY MON TO END BY AFTN AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE THINS A BIT. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS...BUT WOULDN`T
BE SURPRISED IF SKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/E
UNDER LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
FOCUS ON WED NIGHT-THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR GLANCES THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN SHOWING A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE BEING KICKED E BY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE NORTHERN STREAM PUNCH WILL CAUSE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS PHASING AND JET STREAM COUPLING
OCCUR...AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH BETTER PHASING.
MORE MINOR...RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. THE 00Z/28 GFS AND 12Z/27 ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT...WITH THE 00Z/28 GLOBAL GEM TRENDING TOWARD THESE MODELS.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z/28 NAM IS VERY DIFFERENT...SO WILL NOT USE THAT
MODEL AND STICK WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. DYNAMIC COOLING ALONG WITH
CAA WILL TRANSITION RAIN TO SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THE 850MB LOW
TRACK LATE WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT...THEN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT
PULLS OUT THU. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 984MB SFC LOW
MOVING FROM GRB AT 12Z THU TO NEAR THE STRAITS OF MACK AT 981MB BY
18Z THU...THEN INTO CANADA BY 00Z FRI. THIS TRACK RESULTS IN SEVERAL
INCHES (POSSIBLY OVER A FOOT GIVEN QPF OF 1-1.25 INCHES FROM THE
ECMWF AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES FROM THE GFS...BOTH DURING TIMES WHEN
PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW) OF HEAVY SNOW TO MAINLY NW OF A
LINE FROM MUNISING TO IRON MOUNTAIN...WITH THE HEAVIEST SWATH FROM
WATERSMEET TO BARAGA/L`ANSE. THIS IS A PRETTY VOLATILE SYSTEM...SO
EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. BIG FOCUS
RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...SO STAY TUNED.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -13C FRI...WHICH WILL BE GOOD FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE
TOWARD A GLANCING SHOT AND WARMER OVERALL. WILL KEEP LIKELY LES POPS
SAT INTO SUN...BUT TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
DRYING FROM WEST HAS ALLOWED CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT KIWD BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT IN WEAK
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS AT KCMX TO IMPROVE FROM
VLIFR TO AT LEAST IFR OR MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN
THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE AT KSAW ALTHOUGH EVEN
THERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR LATE TONIGHT AS DZ/FZDZ ENDS. AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE INROADS...ALL TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR MON MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
WITH LOW PRES TRACKING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING...15-25KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND MON. CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING HIGH PRES
RIDGE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...WILL THEN BECOME THE RULE ACROSS THE
LAKE MON NIGHT THRU AT LEAST TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES.
SE TO S WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TUE THRU WED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF FLOW...
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...PROBABLY TO
20-30KT. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WED NIGHT AND A LOW PRES WAVE
TRACKS LONG THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND N IN THE 20-
30KT RANGE. WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE FOR AT LEAST A PART OF
THU/THU EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES WAVE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE ON FRI BEFORE A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF GALES DURING THE
DAY SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
143 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONE WEAKER SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS AIDED RAIN AND SOME SNOW THAT HAS SPREAD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN UPPER MI TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS OVER
MN/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO. A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING OVER
MO. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE HAS QUICKLY STREAKED NE ACROSS
SE WI...NRN LAKE MI AND INTO ERN UPPER MI...FORCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF UPPER JET EXTENDING ENE FROM THE UPPER LAKES AND CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN FGEN IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS.
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...FOCUS WILL BE ON ENDING LINGERING PCPN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN THAT HAS DEVELOPED NE INTO ERN UPPER MI MAY
BRUSH THE SE FCST AREA THRU THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE SWINGS FROM MO
ACROSS SE LWR MI. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...ARRIVAL OF DEEP
LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING AN
END TO PATCHY -RA/-SN. HOWEVER...WITH MID LEVELS GRADUALLY DRYING
OUT WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERS AT THE LOW-LEVELS...SOME
-DZ/-FZDZ MAY DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS UNDER RATHER PRONOUNCED
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC NORTHERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH CLEARING IS NOT FAR
AWAY OVER NW LAKE SUPERIOR...LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING SUGGEST AT LEAST THE NCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA WILL BE
TAPPING THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS NNE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR -DZ/-FZDZ. IT ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON ACROSS EVEN THE W...PARTICULARY IN THE FACE OF
CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOULD ANY CLEARING OCCUR OVER THE
W...RADIATIONAL FOG COULD DEVELOP. WITH MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...RAISED MINS FOR TONIGHT TO MOSTLY THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S. IF
CLOUDS BREAK OVER THE FAR W...TEMPS WILL FALL TOWARD 20F.
EXPECT ANY -DZ/-FZDZ TO START THE DAY MON TO END BY AFTN AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE THINS A BIT. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS...BUT WOULDN`T
BE SURPRISED IF SKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/E
UNDER LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THE LONGER RANGE OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF PRETTY TRANQUIL
FOLLOWED BY A MIDWEEK STORM THAT WILL FEATURE RAIN FOLLOWED BY EVEN
A LITTLE SNOW. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK LATE IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRUSHED BY A BRIEF BUT COLD SHOT OF AIR LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A SEASONABLY COLD
FROSTY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
CHANGES BEGIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. AS IT DOES...SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE
PLAINS WITH BRAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION PUSHING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S OVER THE WESTERN U.P. WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE U.P. FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ACTUAL TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE DISCREPANCIES SEEM TO HINGE ON
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. TRENDS SEEM
TO INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...AT LEAST INITIALLY
WILL NOT INTERACT AS MUCH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW LEADING
TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO
THE LAKES REGION. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH MODELS COMING INTO A BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI EXPECT ENOUGH COLD
AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN TO TRANSITIONING THE RAIN TO SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SLOPPY FEW INCHES
OF WET SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDY...COOL CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES. UPPER TROUGH AND SURGE OF COLD AIR...85H TEMPS OF -20 TO
-25C...WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATER NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SOME NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS HOWEVER SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING
THE HARSHNESS OF THE COLD SURGE AND OFFERING MORE OF A BRIEF
GLANCING BLOW WITH WARM ADVECTION RETURNING BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
DRYING FROM WEST HAS ALLOWED CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT KIWD BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT IN WEAK
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS AT KCMX TO IMPROVE FROM
VLIFR TO AT LEAST IFR OR MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN
THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE AT KSAW ALTHOUGH EVEN
THERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR LATE TONIGHT AS DZ/FZDZ ENDS. AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE INROADS...ALL TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR MON MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
WITH LOW PRES TRACKING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING...15-25KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND MON. CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING HIGH PRES
RIDGE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...WILL THEN BECOME THE RULE ACROSS THE
LAKE MON NIGHT THRU AT LEAST TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES.
SE TO S WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TUE THRU WED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF FLOW...
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...PROBABLY TO
20-30KT. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WED NIGHT AND A LOW PRES WAVE
TRACKS LONG THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND N IN THE 20-
30KT RANGE. WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE FOR AT LEAST A PART OF
THU/THU EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES WAVE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE ON FRI BEFORE A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF GALES DURING THE
DAY SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1050 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THEN EXPECTED.
SO WITH A DAMP GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOP. SO HAVE ADDED THE PATCHY FOG AHEAD OF THE MOVING
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
EXPECT THE PATCHY FOG TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WINDS SWITCH
AROUND TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH SOME BRIEF LIGHT GUSTS. WILL
KEEP THE PATCHY FOG AROUND IN THE PINEBELT REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY./17/
924 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...THE BOUNDARY WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WITH A LINE
OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTH MISSISSIPPI INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE POPS. THE HI RES MODELS SUGGESTED
THE RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT WOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AND
DIMINISH AS IT MOVED EAST. THE MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
IT. LEFT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AND SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE VALUES JUST TO THE SOUTH. UPDATED ZONES WERE OUT...BUT MAY DO
ANOTHER UPDATE TO REMOVE THE RAIN. ACTIVITY WAS ALREADY STRUGGLING.
COOLER AIR WAS MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS...WENT WITH THE RUC IN THE
SHORT TERM TO CAPTURE THE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WAS NOT
TOTALLY CONVINCED TEMPS WOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S BY MORNING...BUT
VALUES NEAR 50 WERE NOT TOO FAR. TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES...BUT
MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT LOWS. NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AT GLH/GWO/GTR/CBM AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE REGION...BUT A MAJOR IMPACT TO OPERATIONS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL TAKE UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW TO
CLEAR PORTIONS OF SE MS AND THEREFORE SOME IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO A COMBO OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MEI/NMM/PIB/HBG (ESPECIALLY AT HBG/PIB) THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT WORST...IMPROVING
BEFORE DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOW CEILINGS COULD HANG ON AROUND
GTR/CBM THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A S/SW TO
NW/N WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20 MPH. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 48 69 43 77 / 10 0 0 3
MERIDIAN 52 69 40 75 / 10 0 0 2
VICKSBURG 48 67 43 77 / 10 0 0 4
HATTIESBURG 57 73 47 77 / 10 0 0 5
NATCHEZ 51 67 47 77 / 10 0 0 8
GREENVILLE 44 64 43 72 / 37 0 0 3
GREENWOOD 44 66 42 74 / 48 0 0 2
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
JAN/JAN/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
323 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Surface ridge will be over region today with sunny skies and light
winds. Despite starting off rather cold, in the upper 20s to upper
30s, temperatures to warm up into the upper 50s to mid 60s by this
afternoon.
Will keep freeze warning/frost advisory going til 9 am.
Byrd
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
(Tonight)
Surface ridge will initially this evening be near or just east of
the Mississippi River and will slowly edge eastward overnight
tonight. Winds will start off light/variable but gradually turn
predominantly southeasterly from west to east and increase in speed.
Another seasonably cool night looks in store for the bi-state
area...though not as cool as 24 hours prior. Expect lows mainly in
the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. Coldest locations should be across
favored spots across the eastern Ozarks where patchy or areas of
frost may develop.
(Tuesday)
Southeasterly return flow around departing ridge will strengthen
during the day on Tuesday. In addition...midlevel ridge axis
amplifies and moves toward mid-Mississippi Valley which should help
lead to slightly warmer high temperatures compared to that expected
of today. High temperatues are expected to be in the 60s to near 70
degrees. Increasing mid/high level cloudiness may help keep
temperatures in check however.
(Wednesday/Wednesday Night)
Next system of interest will affect the region on Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Strengthening low-level warm/moist advection
beneath diffluence and DCPVA aloft should aid in development of
showers and thunderstorms as early as Wednesday morning. Coverage of
showers/storms however should increase with cold front coming in on
Wednesday night. Synoptic setup looks fairly similar to last
Wednesday`s storm. Timing of cold front (as it looks right now)
being late overnight does not look particularly favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms as the instability wanes with nocturnal
cooling. However...strong deep-layer shear combined with UL dynamics
and associated cooling aloft may produce a few strong/severe
thunderstorms across the area with the best chances across northeast
Missouri during the course of the evening hours.
(Thursday - Sunday)
By Thursday morning...cold front should almost be clearing the CWA
with a lingering chance for showers mainly for south-central
Illinois. A mostly cloudy sky along with low-level cold advection
should yield highs on Thursday 5-15 degrees colder compared to
Wednesday.
The rest of the extended looks dry with slightly below normal
temperatures. Cannot rule out a light freeze for portions of the
area on Friday night/Saturday morning if wind speeds are low enough.
As alluded to by dayshift...this next upcoming weekend looks much
warmer than it did 24-48 hours ago with the core of the arctic air
now looking like it will hit the eastern Great Lakes and the
northeastern United States instead of further southwest. As a
result...temperatures should remain near to slightly below normal
but nothing extreme.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
MVFR clouds have cleared out of all the taf sites late this
evening, with complete clearing of all the clouds expected in the
St Louis metro by 06Z late tonight or shortly thereafter as
surface ridge extending from western IA southwest into TX
continues to build eastward into MO. A clear sky for the remainder
of the forecast period with weak west or northwest winds late
tonight and Monday, becoming light by Monday evening as the
surface ridge moves eastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The sky should completely clear out by 06Z
late tonight or shortly thereafter. A west or northwest wind late
tonight and Monday, then a light east or northeast wind Monday
night as the surface ridge shifts east of the area.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 61 41 65 51 / 0 0 0 5
Quincy 59 39 64 46 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 63 41 68 49 / 0 0 0 10
Jefferson City 64 40 67 50 / 0 0 0 5
Salem 59 38 63 46 / 0 0 0 0
Farmington 62 34 64 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby
MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
318 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Short Term (Today - Tuesday night):
The main concern in the short term will be the cold temperatures
this morning and any impacts on sensitive vegetation. Temperatures
this morning will bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s most
locations. As such a freeze warning is in place this morning until
9AM. Otherwise, temperatures will begin to warm up quickly this
morning with clear skies, increasing southerly winds and upper level
ridging building into the area. Expect highs to top out in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Expect WAA to increase Monday night into Tuesday
with lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Tuesday in
the 60s to near 70. With warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
strong southerly winds, there may be a elevated fire danger on
Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday into Tuesday night models depict a
weak shortwave ejecting out from a broad upper level trough over the
Great Basin region. This weak shortwave will move through the
Central Plains and bring the chance for a few showers or isolated
thunderstorm across extreme northeast Kansas and northern Missouri
Tuesday night.
Medium Range (Wednesday - Thursday night):
This will be the active portion of the forecast period with the
potential for stronger storms on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
strong upper level trough will eject out from the Great Basin into
the Central Plains. This will force a cold front into eastern Kansas
on Wednesday. The GFS and EC develop showers and thunderstorms
across the area earlier in the day Wednesday this would provide for
more cloud cover and would limit instability despite strong shear
and adequate moisture to support severe weather. The NAM is a little
slower and does not develop showers and thunderstorms earlier in the
day. This would lead to much stronger instability to go along with
the aforementioned shear and moisture. Consequently, severe
potential will hinge on timing of the system and whether we have
early day showers limiting instability. In any rate, showers and
thunderstorms will affect the CWA Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s however,
Thursday will be much cooler behind the cold front with highs in the
50s. The upper level trough will move through the area on Thursday
bringing the slight chance for showers to the northern CWA.
Extended Range (Friday through Sunday):
The extended range will feature dry weather with a warming trend. By
Friday deep upper level troughing will cover the CONUS east of the
Rockies. This will lead to cool conditions on Friday with highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday, the broad upper level troughing
begins to shift northeast and we experience height rises across the
area raising highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday the upper
level flow becomes more quasi-zonal which allows temperatures to
further warm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Surface high pressure has been settling into the vicinity, allowing
for variable and light to calm winds. VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the TAF period with some upper-level clouds meandering in
overhead toward the end of the period. Look for southerly winds to
pickup a bit after sunrise Monday, becoming more southeasterly by
tomorrow evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ013>017-
020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
316 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Early this morning, skies had cleared across the forecast area as
high pressure settled across the area. Under the clear skies and
light winds, temperatures have dropped into the lower to middle 30s.
After a cold start to the day, the surface high will move off to the
east this afternoon, resulting in a more southerly wind component.
With the dry air in place, and ample sunshine temperatures will
rebound rather quickly back to near seasonal normals in the lower to
middle 60s.
Southerly low level flow, albeit light, will hold temperatures up a
little tonight from this mornings cold readings despite clear
skies. The coldest readings will be across the eastern Ozarks
where lows will drop into the middle 30s, and can not rule out
some patchy frost in some of the low lying areas. Otherwise, upper
30s to lower 40s will be common across the remainder of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Stronger southerly flow establishes itself on Tuesday ahead of
rather vigorous storm system evolving over the inter-mountain
west and High Plains. Despite moisture being advected northward,
winds look to rather strong and relative humidities dropping into
the 25 to 35 percent range leading to elevated fire weather
concerns.
Attention then turns to the evolution of the inter-mountain deep
trough that begins to push out into the Plains. There still
remains some timing issues with the surface features between the
NAM and GFS with the GFS and ECMWF the more progressive of the
model suite. Overall, CAPE/Shear parameters look sufficient to
support a limited to elevated risk of strong to severe storms.
Confidence is medium with regards to this system, but low in
discerning storm mode. Based on position of cold front/dry line
and plume of higher instabilities from current suite of models,
highest risk looks to be west of highway 65 and this is where
current SPC day 3 outlook highlights a slight risk.
The more progressive and preferred solutions would push system
out late Wednesday night with dry, quiet and cooler day for
Thursday into Saturday, with near or just slightly below seasonal
normals. Medium range models indicating upper flow to become
slightly more zonal on Sunday which looks to begin a warming
trend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through Monday
evening. Winds will be light and variable overnight and will
become light out of the south to southeast on Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ058-071-082-
083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>057-
066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Surface high pressure has been settling into the vicinity, allowing
for variable and light to calm winds. VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the TAF period with some upper-level clouds meandering in
overhead toward the end of the period. Look for southerly winds to
pickup a bit after sunrise Monday, becoming more southeasterly by
tomorrow evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for MOZ013>017-020>025-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...lg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Surface high pressure has been settling into the vicinity, allowing
for variable and light to calm winds. VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the TAF period with some upper-level clouds meandering in
overhead toward the end of the period. Look for southerly winds to
pickup a bit after sunrise Monday, becoming more southeasterly by
tomorrow evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for MOZ013>017-020>025-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...lg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Surface high pressure has been settling into the vicinity, allowing
for variable and light to calm winds. VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the TAF period with some upper-level clouds meandering in
overhead toward the end of the period. Look for southerly winds to
pickup a bit after sunrise Monday, becoming more southeasterly by
tomorrow evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for MOZ013>017-020>025-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...lg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1141 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through Monday
evening. Winds will be light and variable overnight and will
become light out of the south to southeast on Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for MOZ058-071-082-083-
096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for MOZ055>057-066>070-
077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Rain has cleared the eastern portion of the CWFA and clouds are
clearing out faster than expected. There is apparently an issue
with the GOES East spacecraft and satellite data has been
interrupted. Using GOES West to estimate the clearing, it should
be through most of the CWFA before sunrise if not all the way
through. With wind dropping off west of the Mississippi and
excellent radiational cooling conditions, expect more frost
further further east as well. So have gone ahead and expanded the
frost advisory to include all Missouri counties and Calhoun county
in Illinois.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
MVFR clouds have cleared out of all the taf sites late this
evening, with complete clearing of all the clouds expected in the
St Louis metro by 06Z late tonight or shortly thereafter as
surface ridge extending from western IA southwest into TX
continues to build eastward into MO. A clear sky for the remainder
of the forecast period with weak west or northwest winds late
tonight and Monday, becoming light by Monday evening as the
surface ridge moves eastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The sky should completely clear out by 06Z
late tonight or shortly thereafter. A west or northwest wind late
tonight and Monday, then a light east or northeast wind Monday
night as the surface ridge shifts east of the area.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint
Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Rain has cleared the eastern portion of the CWFA and clouds are
clearing out faster than expected. There is apparently an issue
with the GOES East spacecraft and satellite data has been
interrupted. Using GOES West to estimate the clearing, it should
be through most of the CWFA before sunrise if not all the way
through. With wind dropping off west of the Mississippi and
excellent radiational cooling conditions, expect more frost
further further east as well. So have gone ahead and expanded the
frost advisory to include all Missouri counties and Calhoun county
in Illinois.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
MVFR clouds have cleared out of all the taf sites late this
evening, with complete clearing of all the clouds expected in the
St Louis metro by 06Z late tonight or shortly thereafter as
surface ridge extending from western IA southwest into TX
continues to build eastward into MO. A clear sky for the remainder
of the forecast period with weak west or northwest winds late
tonight and Monday, becoming light by Monday evening as the
surface ridge moves eastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The sky should completely clear out by 06Z
late tonight or shortly thereafter. A west or northwest wind late
tonight and Monday, then a light east or northeast wind Monday
night as the surface ridge shifts east of the area.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint
Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1005 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Rain has cleared the eastern portion of the CWFA and clouds are
clearing out faster than expected. There is apparently an issue
with the GOES East spacecraft and satellite data has been
interrupted. Using GOES West to estimate the clearing, it should
be through most of the CWFA before sunrise if not all the way
through. With wind dropping off west of the Mississippi and
excellent radiational cooling conditions, expect more frost
further further east as well. So have gone ahead and expanded the
frost advisory to include all Missouri counties and Calhoun county
in Illinois.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Cold front extending from a surface low over IN southwest through
eastern AR will move eastward, while a surface ridge extending
from eastern Nebraska south into TX shifts eastward into MO behind
the cold front. The post frontal showers should be east of the taf
sites by 00Z this evening. Low level clouds around 1000-2000 feet
in height should advect east of COU shortly after 00Z this
evening, then east of UIN and the St Louis metro area around 03Z
this evening. Gusty northwesterly winds in the St Louis metro area
will diminish this evening as the surface pressure gradient
relaxes. A clear sky for late tonigt and Monday with weak winds as
the surface ridge moves eastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The showers should be east of STL by 00Z this
evening with MVFR cigs continuing until around 03Z this evening.
Gusty northwesterly surface wind will diminish through the night,
becoming light late tonight/early Monday morning. A clear sky and
weak wind can be expected from late tonight through the remainder
of the forecast period.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint
Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
621 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period with
northwesterly winds this evening becoming light and variable
overnight. By Monday morning, southerly winds will return with
perhaps a few high-level clouds streaming through.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...lg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Back edge of the upper level system is currently traversing the
area. Clouds have scattered at KJLN and should break up by 02z at
KSGF/KBBG. Once clouds exit the area...expect VFR conditions
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will diminish
after sunset and remain light and variable overnight gradually
backing around to a south to southeasterly direction by 14-18z on
Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Back edge of the upper level system is currently traversing the
area. Clouds have scattered at KJLN and should break up by 02z at
KSGF/KBBG. Once clouds exit the area...expect VFR conditions
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will diminish
after sunset and remain light and variable overnight gradually
backing around to a south to southeasterly direction by 14-18z on
Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Back edge of the upper level system is currently traversing the
area. Clouds have scattered at KJLN and should break up by 02z at
KSGF/KBBG. Once clouds exit the area...expect VFR conditions
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will diminish
after sunset and remain light and variable overnight gradually
backing around to a south to southeasterly direction by 14-18z on
Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Back edge of the upper level system is currently traversing the
area. Clouds have scattered at KJLN and should break up by 02z at
KSGF/KBBG. Once clouds exit the area...expect VFR conditions
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will diminish
after sunset and remain light and variable overnight gradually
backing around to a south to southeasterly direction by 14-18z on
Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Back edge of the upper level system is currently traversing the
area. Clouds have scattered at KJLN and should break up by 02z at
KSGF/KBBG. Once clouds exit the area...expect VFR conditions
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will diminish
after sunset and remain light and variable overnight gradually
backing around to a south to southeasterly direction by 14-18z on
Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
602 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Cold front extending from a surface low over IN southwest through
eastern AR will move eastward, while a surface ridge extending
from eastern Nebraska south into TX shifts eastward into MO behind
the cold front. The post frontal showers should be east of the taf
sites by 00Z this evening. Low level clouds around 1000-2000 feet
in height should advect east of COU shortly after 00Z this
evening, then east of UIN and the St Louis metro area around 03Z
this evening. Gusty northwesterly winds in the St Louis metro area
will diminish this evening as the surface pressure gradient
relaxes. A clear sky for late tonigt and Monday with weak winds as
the surface ridge moves eastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The showers should be east of STL by 00Z this
evening with MVFR cigs continuing until around 03Z this evening.
Gusty northwesterly surface wind will diminish through the night,
becoming light late tonight/early Monday morning. A clear sky and
weak wind can be expected from late tonight through the remainder
of the forecast period.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
343 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A cold front moved through the terminals
earlier today, and a band of rain had developed behind the front.
This band of rain with MVFR cigs will continue to affect KCOU and
KUIN for the first few hours of the TAF period. Cigs may
occasionally dip into IFR. A gradual improvement is then expected
over the next several hours with VFR conditions prevailing
overnight. An area of high pressure will approach the terminals
overnight, leading to a decrease in wind speeds.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A cold front was located near the
St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, and a band of rain
had developed behind the front. As the cold front progresses
southeastward this afternoon, the post-frontal band of rain will
also progress southeastward, bringing a period of rain and MVFR
cigs to the terminals during the afternoon. Brief periods of IFR
cigs are possible. Any thunderstorms which develop this afternoon
ahead of the front should remain south and east of the St. Louis
metro area terminals. Expect improvement to VFR during the evening
and overnight hours.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
343 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A cold front moved through the terminals
earlier today, and a band of rain had developed behind the front.
This band of rain with MVFR cigs will continue to affect KCOU and
KUIN for the first few hours of the TAF period. Cigs may
occasionally dip into IFR. A gradual improvement is then expected
over the next several hours with VFR conditions prevailing
overnight. An area of high pressure will approach the terminals
overnight, leading to a decrease in wind speeds.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A cold front was located near the
St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, and a band of rain
had developed behind the front. As the cold front progresses
southeastward this afternoon, the post-frontal band of rain will
also progress southeastward, bringing a period of rain and MVFR
cigs to the terminals during the afternoon. Brief periods of IFR
cigs are possible. Any thunderstorms which develop this afternoon
ahead of the front should remain south and east of the St. Louis
metro area terminals. Expect improvement to VFR during the evening
and overnight hours.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
343 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A cold front moved through the terminals
earlier today, and a band of rain had developed behind the front.
This band of rain with MVFR cigs will continue to affect KCOU and
KUIN for the first few hours of the TAF period. Cigs may
occasionally dip into IFR. A gradual improvement is then expected
over the next several hours with VFR conditions prevailing
overnight. An area of high pressure will approach the terminals
overnight, leading to a decrease in wind speeds.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A cold front was located near the
St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, and a band of rain
had developed behind the front. As the cold front progresses
southeastward this afternoon, the post-frontal band of rain will
also progress southeastward, bringing a period of rain and MVFR
cigs to the terminals during the afternoon. Brief periods of IFR
cigs are possible. Any thunderstorms which develop this afternoon
ahead of the front should remain south and east of the St. Louis
metro area terminals. Expect improvement to VFR during the evening
and overnight hours.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
137 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tight, clear
skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures after
midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas along
and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details, forcing, shear, and instability will
lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to mentioned an
elevated risk for severe weather, and include a mention of large
hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: A cold front tracked through the
area earlier this morning. Behind the front a low level stratus
deck with IFR ceilings is spreading across the area. This system
is quickly spreading east this afternoon and the clearing line is
currently pushing across extreme southeastern Kansas early this
afternoon, and will clear from west to east by early this evening.
Under the stratus deck some patchy drizzle may occur at times.
Winds will be out of the north to northwest this afternoon and
become light and variable this evening into Monday morning as high
pressure moves over the region. Temperatures will drop into the
upper 20s to the lower 30s tonight with areas of frost expected to
develop early Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
137 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tight, clear
skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures after
midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas along
and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details, forcing, shear, and instability will
lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to mentioned an
elevated risk for severe weather, and include a mention of large
hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: A cold front tracked through the
area earlier this morning. Behind the front a low level stratus
deck with IFR ceilings is spreading across the area. This system
is quickly spreading east this afternoon and the clearing line is
currently pushing across extreme southeastern Kansas early this
afternoon, and will clear from west to east by early this evening.
Under the stratus deck some patchy drizzle may occur at times.
Winds will be out of the north to northwest this afternoon and
become light and variable this evening into Monday morning as high
pressure moves over the region. Temperatures will drop into the
upper 20s to the lower 30s tonight with areas of frost expected to
develop early Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1254 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of frontogenetically-driven rain will slowly slide
southeastward through the early morning hours reaching portions of
central and northeastern Missouri by mid/late morning and to the St.
Louis metro area by early afternoon. The timing of this area of
rain is several hours slower than previous forecast due to slower
fropa through the CWA.
The slower passage of the cold front will also allow temperatures to
warmup more than previously expected with a tight temperature
gradient from northwest to southeast. Across northwestern sections
of the area...highs will only be in the 40s due to copious amounts
of cloud cover and rainfall. However...for portions of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois...am expecting highs to near 70
degrees as fropa is not expected there until late afternoon. For
these areas...enough instability will likely materialize for
isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Could be an isolated strong/severe storm or two but
better chances further southeast of CWA.
Will be a lingering threat of light rain for portions of south-
central Illinois early this evening but conditions should quickly
dry out. Cloud cover will decrease overnight tonight as well.
Combine that with winds diminishing with approach of sfc
ridge...could be a good setup for radiational cooling and frost
development late tonight. Forecast lows tonight generally west of
the Mississippi River are expected to be in the 30-35 degree range
so a light freeze is possible. Will hold off on any headlines for
now and let dayshift decipher which (if any) frost/freeze headlines
are warranted. Timing of clearing skies and sfc ridge will be the
key factors.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Surface ridge will be over region Monday with dry and warmer
weather for the first part of the work week. By Tuesday surface
ridge will be to our east, so winds will be out of the south with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, low level moisture will be on the increase ahead of
next weather system. So showers and a few thunderstorms to develop
and spread northward across the area on Wednesday. The best chances
of precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening as
strong cold front slides through region. Some differences in timing
among the extended models, so kept low chance mention through
Thursday, before tapering off.
As for temperatures, Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Then colder air to filter in with highs
near normal by Friday, in the 50s.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A cold front moved through the terminals
earlier today, and a band of rain had developed behind the front.
This band of rain with MVFR cigs will continue to affect KCOU and
KUIN for the first few hours of the TAF period. Cigs may
occasionally dip into IFR. A gradual improvement is then expected
over the next several hours with VFR conditions prevailing
overnight. An area of high pressure will approach the terminals
overnight, leading to a decrease in wind speeds.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A cold front was located near the
St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, and a band of rain
had developed behind the front. As the cold front progresses
southeastward this afternoon, the post-frontal band of rain will
also progress southeastward, bringing a period of rain and MVFR
cigs to the terminals during the afternoon. Brief periods of IFR
cigs are possible. Any thunderstorms which develop this afternoon
ahead of the front should remain south and east of the St. Louis
metro area terminals. Expect improvement to VFR during the evening
and overnight hours.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1241 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
...Update to Aviation Discussion for the 18Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s this
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will end
the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out the
details, but something to keep an eye on. Overall confidence is
medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: A cold front tracked through the
area earlier this morning. Behind the front a low level stratus
deck with IFR ceilings is spreading across the area. This system
is quickly spreading east this afternoon and the clearing line is
currently pushing across extreme southeastern Kansas early this
afternoon, and will clear from west to east by early this evening.
Under the stratus deck some patchy drizzle may occur at times.
Winds will be out of the north to northwest this afternoon and
become light and variable this evening into Monday morning as high
pressure moves over the region. Temperatures will drop into the
upper 20s to the lower 30s tonight with areas of frost expected to
develop early Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s this
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will end
the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out the
details, but something to keep an eye on. Overall confidence is
medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A surface cold front just recently
moved through the taf sites over the last few hours. A post
frontal disturbance moving northeast through eastern KS will
lower ceilings, especially at KJLN (already low end MVFR) and KSGF
with increasing chances for rain. Somewhat lower ceilings at KBBG
will occur as well but with lesser sustained rain chances.
Moderately gusty northwest winds are also expected. As the
disturbance pulls away expected a clearing sky with diminishing
winds after 21z.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A surface cold front just recently
moved through the taf sites over the last few hours. A post
frontal disturbance moving northeast through eastern KS will
lower ceilings, especially at KJLN (already low end MVFR) and KSGF
with increasing chances for rain. Somewhat lower ceilings at KBBG
will occur as well but with lesser sustained rain chances.
Moderately gusty northwest winds are also expected. As the
disturbance pulls away expected a clearing sky with diminishing
winds after 21z.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A surface cold front just recently
moved through the taf sites over the last few hours. A post
frontal disturbance moving northeast through eastern KS will
lower ceilings, especially at KJLN (already low end MVFR) and KSGF
with increasing chances for rain. Somewhat lower ceilings at KBBG
will occur as well but with lesser sustained rain chances.
Moderately gusty northwest winds are also expected. As the
disturbance pulls away expected a clearing sky with diminishing
winds after 21z.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A surface cold front just recently
moved through the taf sites over the last few hours. A post
frontal disturbance moving northeast through eastern KS will
lower ceilings, especially at KJLN (already low end MVFR) and KSGF
with increasing chances for rain. Somewhat lower ceilings at KBBG
will occur as well but with lesser sustained rain chances.
Moderately gusty northwest winds are also expected. As the
disturbance pulls away expected a clearing sky with diminishing
winds after 21z.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A band of rain and snow is currently positioned across the area.
Temperatures have been hovering in the low to mid 30s making
precip type difficult to nail down. Several terminals have seen a
quick burst of snow with others just experiencing light rain. This
band of precip will hang around several more hours before clearing
from west to east by late morning. Heavier precip should drop off by
15Z with light precip possible thru 17Z. Skies begin to clear by mid
afternoon as the system moves eastward out of the region. Winds will
remain generally out of the northwest near 12kts or lighter thru the
period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A band of rain and snow is currently positioned across the area.
Temperatures have been hovering in the low to mid 30s making
precip type difficult to nail down. Several terminals have seen a
quick burst of snow with others just experiencing light rain. This
band of precip will hang around several more hours before clearing
from west to east by late morning. Heavier precip should drop off by
15Z with light precip possible thru 17Z. Skies begin to clear by mid
afternoon as the system moves eastward out of the region. Winds will
remain generally out of the northwest near 12kts or lighter thru the
period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of frontogenetically-driven rain will slowly slide
southeastward through the early morning hours reaching portions of
central and northeastern Missouri by mid/late morning and to the St.
Louis metro area by early afternoon. The timing of this area of
rain is several hours slower than previous forecast due to slower
fropa through the CWA.
The slower passage of the cold front will also allow temperatures to
warmup more than previously expected with a tight temperature
gradient from northwest to southeast. Across northwestern sections
of the area...highs will only be in the 40s due to copious amounts
of cloud cover and rainfall. However...for portions of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois...am expecting highs to near 70
degrees as fropa is not expected there until late afternoon. For
these areas...enough instability will likely materialize for
isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Could be an isolated strong/severe storm or two but
better chances further southeast of CWA.
Will be a lingering threat of light rain for portions of south-
central Illinois early this evening but conditions should quickly
dry out. Cloud cover will decrease overnight tonight as well.
Combine that with winds diminishing with approach of sfc
ridge...could be a good setup for radiational cooling and frost
development late tonight. Forecast lows tonight generally west of
the Mississippi River are expected to be in the 30-35 degree range
so a light freeze is possible. Will hold off on any headlines for
now and let dayshift decipher which (if any) frost/freeze headlines
are warranted. Timing of clearing skies and sfc ridge will be the
key factors.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Surface ridge will be over region Monday with dry and warmer
weather for the first part of the work week. By Tuesday surface
ridge will be to our east, so winds will be out of the south with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, low level moisture will be on the increase ahead of
next weather system. So showers and a few thunderstorms to develop
and spread northward across the area on Wednesday. The best chances
of precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening as
strong cold front slides through region. Some differences in timing
among the extended models, so kept low chance mention through
Thursday, before tapering off.
As for temperatures, Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Then colder air to filter in with highs
near normal by Friday, in the 50s.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of rain should slowly slide eastward toward KCOU/KUIN by late
this morning and St. Louis metro terminals by mid afternoon.
Ceilings will also lower to at least low MVFR along with MVFR
visibilities. IFR ceilings are also possible but most likely this
morning at KCOU and to a lesser degree KUIN. Winds will stay out
of the NW through the period at KCOU and KUIN behind the cold
front and should swing to the NW at the metro terminals by early
afternoon. Rain chances will be east of the terminals by late this
afternoon with improving conditions. For tonight...skies should
clear from west to east.
Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front should move through by early afternoon with light rain
moving in from the west shortly thereafter. Period of about 3
hours of rain along with MVFR visibilities/ceilings. Conditions
will improve by evening after the rain moves out of the area.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 66 39 62 42 / 90 5 0 0
Quincy 47 31 60 40 / 90 5 0 0
Columbia 46 31 64 41 / 80 5 0 0
Jefferson City 48 31 65 40 / 90 5 0 0
Salem 70 39 60 40 / 60 20 0 0
Farmington 65 35 62 38 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of frontogenetically-driven rain will slowly slide
southeastward through the early morning hours reaching portions of
central and northeastern Missouri by mid/late morning and to the St.
Louis metro area by early afternoon. The timing of this area of
rain is several hours slower than previous forecast due to slower
fropa through the CWA.
The slower passage of the cold front will also allow temperatures to
warmup more than previously expected with a tight temperature
gradient from northwest to southeast. Across northwestern sections
of the area...highs will only be in the 40s due to copious amounts
of cloud cover and rainfall. However...for portions of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois...am expecting highs to near 70
degrees as fropa is not expected there until late afternoon. For
these areas...enough instability will likely materialize for
isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Could be an isolated strong/severe storm or two but
better chances further southeast of CWA.
Will be a lingering threat of light rain for portions of south-
central Illinois early this evening but conditions should quickly
dry out. Cloud cover will decrease overnight tonight as well.
Combine that with winds diminishing with approach of sfc
ridge...could be a good setup for radiational cooling and frost
development late tonight. Forecast lows tonight generally west of
the Mississippi River are expected to be in the 30-35 degree range
so a light freeze is possible. Will hold off on any headlines for
now and let dayshift decipher which (if any) frost/freeze headlines
are warranted. Timing of clearing skies and sfc ridge will be the
key factors.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Surface ridge will be over region Monday with dry and warmer
weather for the first part of the work week. By Tuesday surface
ridge will be to our east, so winds will be out of the south with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, low level moisture will be on the increase ahead of
next weather system. So showers and a few thunderstorms to develop
and spread northward across the area on Wednesday. The best chances
of precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening as
strong cold front slides through region. Some differences in timing
among the extended models, so kept low chance mention through
Thursday, before tapering off.
As for temperatures, Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Then colder air to filter in with highs
near normal by Friday, in the 50s.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of rain should slowly slide eastward toward KCOU/KUIN by late
this morning and St. Louis metro terminals by mid afternoon.
Ceilings will also lower to at least low MVFR along with MVFR
visibilities. IFR ceilings are also possible but most likely this
morning at KCOU and to a lesser degree KUIN. Winds will stay out
of the NW through the period at KCOU and KUIN behind the cold
front and should swing to the NW at the metro terminals by early
afternoon. Rain chances will be east of the terminals by late this
afternoon with improving conditions. For tonight...skies should
clear from west to east.
Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front should move through by early afternoon with light rain
moving in from the west shortly thereafter. Period of about 3
hours of rain along with MVFR visibilities/ceilings. Conditions
will improve by evening after the rain moves out of the area.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 66 39 62 42 / 90 5 0 0
Quincy 47 31 60 40 / 90 5 0 0
Columbia 46 31 64 41 / 80 5 0 0
Jefferson City 48 31 65 40 / 90 5 0 0
Salem 70 39 60 40 / 60 20 0 0
Farmington 65 35 62 38 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
433 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
433 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
433 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
331 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of frontogenetically-driven rain will slowly slide
southeastward through the early morning hours reaching portions of
central and northeastern Missouri by mid/late morning and to the St.
Louis metro area by early afternoon. The timing of this area of
rain is several hours slower than previous forecast due to slower
fropa through the CWA.
The slower passage of the cold front will also allow temperatures to
warmup more than previously expected with a tight temperature
gradient from northwest to southeast. Across northwestern sections
of the area...highs will only be in the 40s due to copious amounts
of cloud cover and rainfall. However...for portions of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois...am expecting highs to near 70
degrees as fropa is not expected there until late afternoon. For
these areas...enough instability will likely materialize for
isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Could be an isolated strong/severe storm or two but
better chances further southeast of CWA.
Will be a lingering threat of light rain for portions of south-
central Illinois early this evening but conditions should quickly
dry out. Cloud cover will decrease overnight tonight as well.
Combine that with winds diminishing with approach of sfc
ridge...could be a good setup for radiational cooling and frost
development late tonight. Forecast lows tonight generally west of
the Mississippi River are expected to be in the 30-35 degree range
so a light freeze is possible. Will hold off on any headlines for
now and let dayshift decipher which (if any) frost/freeze headlines
are warranted. Timing of clearing skies and sfc ridge will be the
key factors.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Surface ridge will be over region Monday with dry and warmer
weather for the first part of the work week. By Tuesday surface
ridge will be to our east, so winds will be out of the south with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, low level moisture will be on the increase ahead of
next weather system. So showers and a few thunderstorms to develop
and spread northward across the area on Wednesday. The best chances
of precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening as
strong cold front slides through region. Some differences in timing
among the extended models, so kept low chance mention through
Thursday, before tapering off.
As for temperatures, Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Then colder air to filter in with highs
near normal by Friday, in the 50s.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
A cold front extending from a surface low over northwestern IA
south to near COU, then southwest through JLN will move slowly
southeastward through the taf sites late tonight and Sunday.
Showers are expected to move into UIN and COU Sunday morning and
into the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon ahead of an upper
level disturbance which will move east-northeastward through MO
Sunday afternoon and induce a weak surface wave along the cold
front. Low level clouds will advect into UIN and COU late tonight
and into the St Louis metro area Sunday morning. The ceiling
height will drop to around 1000-2000 feet in UIN and COU Sunday
morning and in the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon. Sely
surface wind will veer around to a nwly direction late tonight
in UIN as they have already in COU, and in the St Louis metro
area late Sunday morning after fropa. The showers will shift east
of the taf sites by early Sunday evening with cloud ceiling rising
to VFR conditions Sunday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds will advect into the STL area
Sunday morning, then the cloud ceiling will lower to around
1000-2000 feet Sunday afternoon with showers as well Sunday
afternoon. The cloud ceiling will rise back into the VFR category
Sunday evening. Sely surface wind will veer around to a nwly
direction late Sunday morning after fropa.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 65 39 62 42 / 90 5 0 0
Quincy 47 31 60 40 / 90 5 0 0
Columbia 46 31 64 41 / 90 5 0 0
Jefferson City 47 31 65 40 / 90 5 0 0
Salem 69 39 60 40 / 60 20 0 0
Farmington 63 35 62 38 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A quick moving storm system will bring lowering ceilings to the
region late tonight and Sunday morning. MVFR is very likely with
some scattered IFR potential. The best potential for IFR will be
around Joplin and Springfield. A band of rain showers will also
push through the area with a reduction to MVFR possible. Skies
will then quickly clear in the afternoon with VFR returning by
late afternoon.
Winds will be somewhat brisk and gusty out of the northwest on
Sunday but will quickly diminish by evening.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A quick moving storm system will bring lowering ceilings to the
region late tonight and Sunday morning. MVFR is very likely with
some scattered IFR potential. The best potential for IFR will be
around Joplin and Springfield. A band of rain showers will also
push through the area with a reduction to MVFR possible. Skies
will then quickly clear in the afternoon with VFR returning by
late afternoon.
Winds will be somewhat brisk and gusty out of the northwest on
Sunday but will quickly diminish by evening.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
It was another nice day across southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Under a mix of sun and clouds, temperatures warmed into
the 60s.
A cold front was positioned across the Kansas Flint Hills. This
feature will approach the region, and force a chilly rainfall
along and north of this feature late tonight and into Sunday.
Most locations on Sunday will experience measurable precipitation.
Although, this episode of rain will be short-lived. A speed max
located over northern New Mexico will drive this rain east of the
Ozarks by Sunday evening.
With skies clearing and winds becoming light and variable,
temperatures Sunday night will fall below freezing in many areas.
The eastern Ozarks may stay above freezing.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
A warming trend is expected Monday through Wednesday as an upper
level ridge of high pressure translates across the nations mid
section.
Temperatures by Tuesday afternoon will be well into the 70s.
Tuesday will be a fantastic day for outdoor activities.
Meanwhile, an intense storm system will be brewing out to the
west. This will pull Gulf moisture into the Ozarks, and set the
stage for an episode of severe storms during the day on Wednesday.
Regarding Wednesday, both the GFS and ECMWF have been consistent
with timing thunderstorm development during the daytime, which
would allow for more destabilization. Shear looks pretty strong
with this system.
Given this cape - shear signal, we will begin to mention an
expectation for severe thunderstorms.
After Wednesday we will need to watch for the risk of cold air and
freeze possibilities.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A quick moving storm system will bring lowering ceilings to the
region late tonight and Sunday morning. MVFR is very likely with
some scattered IFR potential. The best potential for IFR will be
around Joplin and Springfield. A band of rain showers will also
push through the area with a reduction to MVFR possible. Skies
will then quickly clear in the afternoon with VFR returning by
late afternoon.
Winds will be somewhat brisk and gusty out of the northwest on
Sunday but will quickly diminish by evening.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 405 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
Leading shortwave trough, that brought rain this morning into the
early afternoon, is quickly moving to our northeast taking the
lingering rain with it. However, for tonight and Sunday we will be
watching another shortwave trough, currently swinging through
Colorado, as it moves through the Southern and Central Plains on its
way east up the Ohio River Valley late Sunday. Model runs continue
to advertise another decent round of light to moderate rain with the
secondary trough, though complicating the issue is the cold air
surging south behind a cold front that the leading shortwave trough
is pushing through the forecast region today. This will provide an
opportunity for some snow sunday morning.
For Tonight and Sunday...light rain associated with a passing
shortwave is exiting the area this afternoon, and with a little
clearing of the clouds across central and northeast Missouri,
temperatures have responded in those areas by jumping into the 60s
ahead of a weak cold front, that is currently starting to sweep
across Missouri. The slight clearing behind the cold front will give
us a break in activity, but we still expect the secondary trough to
induce more lift as the axis swings across the Plains tonight. Model
runs continue to limit the precipitation shield to areas broadly
around and south of I-35 as that is where the better upper level
dynamics are. As mentioned, the dropping temperatures overnight will
complicate issues as precipitation type will likely come into play.
Model sounds indicate there is a window for some snow as the air
column cools and the precipitation develops across the eastern
Kansas and far western Missouri. However, models seem a little
aggressive with the snow and advertised accumulations given surface
temperatures that are expected to remain above freezing through the
event. But, given the temperature regime we will be in, expect a mix
of precipitation types early through mid Sunday morning. Will limit
the mention of precipitation types to rain or snow, but concede that
some reports of sleet might work in early Sunday morning. Otherwise,
there is a very small chance that some of the snow will stick to
grassy areas during the cool morning hours, but any snow that does
fall wont amount to much and will quickly melt. Ultimately, this all
boils down to a cool wet forecast for Sunday morning.
Monday into the work week...conditions will begin to rebound with a
return of warmer Spring temperatures as a large West Coast trough
forces a shortwave ridge across the Plains through mid-week.
However, that West Coast trough, and another in the northern stream,
will eventually eject through the Plains Tuesday through Thursday,
likely resulting in a large storm event across the region with severe
thunderstorms possible. This will leave temperatures in the 60s and
70s Monday through Wednesday, dropping back into the 50s Thursday on
as cool air sweeps in behind the mid-work-week storm system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1119 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
Made some updates to PoPs for the rest of the night...primarily
out over central and northeast Missouri to match up better with
latest short-range guidance. Up until the 01Z run, the RAP was
printing out some light QPF in those areas in the warm advection
ahead of the cold front...but this latest run has dried up. HRRR
still develops a few sprinkles as does the new NAM. Have kept some
low chance/slight chance PoPs for this evening over central and
northeast Missouri, but did end up pairing it back from what the
day shift gave me. Gradually ramped up PoPs after 06Z tonight toward
likely by 11-12Z.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
Early afternoon water vapor imagery depicted one shortwave lifting
away from the region and another shortwave lurking upstream, leading
to an expectation of continued benign conditions through the evening
hours. The upstream shortwave will push a cold front into the region
overnight and tomorrow. The timing and placement of large-scale
ascent, moisture, and frontogenetical forcing suggests that the
majority of pcpn should be post-frontal. This means that an area of
rain should develop and move into the western CWA either late
tonight or early tomorrow morning, depending on how quickly the cold
front progresses southeastward. A few models depicted an elongated
area of weak H85-H7 moisture convergence stretching into the CWA
after 09z, but elevated thunderstorms seem unlikely attm given the
low values of MUCAPE.
Overnight lows should be warmer than last night due to a warmer
start to the day, increasing clouds overnight, and persistent
southeasterly to southerly flow ahead of the front.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Still looks like Sunday will be wet as trough now over the central
High Plains will move east into the western Missouri by midday
tomorrow. Low level moisture convergence will increase under the
mid level ascent across central and northeast Missouri early
tomorrow morning that will spread east across the area during the
day. Have increased to categorical PoPs given the strength of the
forcing. Still looks like the speed the the trough will cause the
rain showers to move out of the area by early evening.
Then a ridge will build into the area quickly behind the trough
allowing Monday and Tuesday to be dry. Will need to watch for
frost on Monday night where temperatures drop into the lower to
mid 30s and skies will be clear with light winds. Temperatures
will climb back above normal by Tuesday as winds turn back out of
the south.
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Models have not shown much change from yesterday with a deep upper
low over the western CONUS early on Wednesday and an upper ridge
to the east. Still looks like there will be a chance of showers
and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Wednesday night as both models
are showing some amount of CAPE ahead of the cold front. The GFS
is quicker to move an upper trough that is the result of the
phasing of the northern part of the aforementioned upper low and a
trough moving southeast out of Canada across our area on Thursday.
This contrasts with the ECMWF which does not show as much phasing
and lets the Canadian trough move eastward. The GFS has it`s
attendant cold front pass through the CWA on Wednesday night
whereas the ECMWF is about 12 hours slower; it passes through on
Thursday morning. Consequently the ECMWF would allow precipitation
to linger over the area longer on Thursday compared to the GFS
which would be dry. Will hold onto the rain chances into Thursday
per the ECMWF because of this before going dry on Friday and
Saturday when a surface ridge will move into the area.
Temperatures on Wednesday still look above normal with 850mb
temperatures around +10C, but then should fall back near or below
normal behind the cold front.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
A cold front extending from a surface low over northwestern IA
south to near COU, then southwest through JLN will move slowly
southeastward through the taf sites late tonight and Sunday.
Showers are expected to move into UIN and COU Sunday morning and
into the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon ahead of an upper
level disturbance which will move east-northeastward through MO
Sunday afternoon and induce a weak surface wave along the cold
front. Low level clouds will advect into UIN and COU late tonight
and into the St Louis metro area Sunday morning. The ceiling
height will drop to around 1000-2000 feet in UIN and COU Sunday
morning and in the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon. Sely
surface wind will veer around to a nwly direction late tonight
in UIN as they have already in COU, and in the St Louis metro
area late Sunday morning after fropa. The showers will shift east
of the taf sites by early Sunday evening with cloud ceiling rising
to VFR conditions Sunday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds will advect into the STL area
Sunday morning, then the cloud ceiling will lower to around
1000-2000 feet Sunday afternoon with showers as well Sunday
afternoon. The cloud ceiling will rise back into the VFR catagory
Sunday evening. Sely surface wind will veer around to a nwly
direction late Sunday morning after fropa.
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING AND DRYING TREND BEGINS TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WET CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER
INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE MOVING EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RADAR LOOPS AND
PROJECTIONS SHOW COVERAGE WILL INCREASE A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FADING BY AROUND SUNRISE. AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A LOW
CENTER AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING EAST UP THE COAST JUST
OFFSHORE WHILE A COLD FRONT DESCENDS FROM THE NW. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE
OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVES VERY QUICKLY NE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM BRINGING PRESENT
ROUND OF MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL END THIS
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NE. THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL PULL
MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AWAY WITH IT...LEAVING LITTLE FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO WORK WITH LATER ON TODAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT...NOSING IN FROM
THE NW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS COOL AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A
BIT OF A WARMING TREND....TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OUT
WEST WILL LINK UP WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH FROM CANADA AND MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH THIS PATTERN. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE TWO PERIODS OF STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDER. THE FIRST ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WE
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WITH
ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY. CLEARING AND COOLER LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ALONG WITH
IT 850MB TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z... WHILE THERE ARE POCKETS OF CONVECTION ON RADAR
PREDOMINATELY IT IS STRATIFORM RAIN AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL THUNDER...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE COAST OR OFFSHORE NEAR THE LOW`S TRACK. HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN AN
HOUR OR TWO...BASED MAINLY ON THE HRRR MODEL. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BOUNCE AROUND A BIT...BUT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY
IFR/LIFR. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON ANY DENSE FOG...MAINLY BECAUSE
THE WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 5 KTS OR BETTER. THE GFS SHUTS OFF
THE MOISTURE BY 07Z...BUT THINK THIS IS A BIT FAST. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY
AFTER WITH A WEST WIND.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY MAY INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HAVE DROPPED SCEC HEADLINES WITH THE LATEST
ISSUANCE AS OFFSHORE LOW IS MOVING NE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE
WATERS...KEEPING GRADIENT SLACKER THAN EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY NE AS A COLD FRONT DESCENDS FROM THE NW. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NW
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLAGS FOR THE NEAR TERM...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT
TERM AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN EAST OF
THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED AT 3 TO 5 FT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXTENDED MARINE FORECAST BRINGS RUGGED
CONDITIONS TO ALL WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS THURSDAY WELL INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.
THE SPEEDS DO BACK OFF A LITTLE FRIDAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE FLOW
WEAKENS FURTHER AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT SEAS AND
THEN SOME FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1240 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...DRAGGING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. A COOLING AND DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WET CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...HAVE SEEN A DRAMATIC DECREASE IN PRECIP
COVERAGE OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE FEAR AND
NORTHWARDS. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THE RADAR-OBSERVED BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
SHIELD BRINGS IT TO DARLINGTON AROUND 05Z/1 AM EDT. THIS MATCHES
UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE EARLIER EVENING UPDATE AND ONLY SMALL
CHANGES WERE NEEDED. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE
GEORGIA COAST AND OUT AS FAR EAST AS BUOY 41008. THIS IMPLIES THE
SURFACE LOW MAY BE TAKING A TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER EAST FROM THE
18Z GFS/NAM CONSENSUS TRACK...AND I HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURE CURVES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO SINCE THIS EASTWARD TRACK
SHOULD REDUCE THE INFLOW OF WARM GULF STREAM AIR INTO COASTAL
NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE GEORGIA-ALABAMA BORDER WILL SWEEP
EAST TONIGHT...EXITING THE NC COAST BY DAYBREAK. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL
THE SURFACE LOW ARRIVES DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE AS GULF
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST LIFT
APPEARS TO EXIST ALONG THE 305K SURFACE...JUST BELOW 700 MB OR
10000 FEET ALOFT. IT IS ALONG THIS SURFACE THAT BOTH THE 18Z GFS
AND NAM MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINING STRONG THROUGH 2 AM
EDT...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SOLID RAINFALL.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS VERY SMALL...ON THE ORDER OF 100 J/KG.
THIS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO JUST THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MARINE FORECAST
ZONES WHERE INCREASING ADVECTION OF WARM AIR OFF THE GULF STREAM
MAY PRODUCE SLIGHTLY LARGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY LATER THIS
EVENING.
BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT OVER AN INCH
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN ALONG THE COAST...WITH TOTALS CLOSER TO
HALF AN INCH INLAND. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE SLOW-MOVING
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO
COUNTIES RIGHT NOW THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL-SCALE AREAS OF
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER AN INCH TOO.
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO
FALL TO ONLY 60 BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE ALONG
THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO INCREASING GULF STREAM
INFLUENCE AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD IS DRYING TREND AND
COOLING AS STORM SYSTEM EXITS NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. GUSTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING MONDAY ARE POSSIBLE
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES BENEATH THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. COOL
AIR WILL LAG UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
TRANSLATES TO A VERY MILD DAY MONDAY QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
MAXIMUMS 9-12 DEGREES COOLER UNDER SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING IN THE AREA
WED MORNING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LATER IN THE DAY AS
THE RIDGES MOVE OFFSHORE WILL COMMENCE OF A PERIOD OF STEADY
MOISTURE RETURN. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THU. COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND EJECT
SHORTWAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE
MID LEVEL PATTERN BUT THE GFS...WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE
FASTEST SOLUTION...CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER. CANADIAN/ECMWF/WPC
SOLUTIONS REMAIN SLOWER AND ARE FAVORED. THIS IS NOT ONLY DUE TO
THEIR AGREEMENT BUT WEAK MID LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF ALL FEATURES. POP WILL STILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THU BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE THU NIGHT AND FRI/SAT. FRONT ENDS UP
PARALLEL TO STEERING FLOW FRI/SAT WITH THE BOUNDARY SLOW TO CROSS
THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES RUN ABOVE CLIMO THU-SAT
DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE GULF COAST SAT NIGHT FINALLY PROVIDES THE KICK THE FRONT
NEEDS...USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z... WHILE THERE ARE POCKETS OF CONVECTION ON RADAR
PREDOMINATELY IT IS STRATIFORM RAIN AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL THUNDER...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE COAST OR OFFSHORE NEAR THE LOW`S TRACK. HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN AN
HOUR OR TWO...BASED MAINLY ON THE HRRR MODEL. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BOUNCE AROUND A BIT...BUT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY
IFR/LIFR. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON ANY DENSE FOG...MAINLY BECAUSE
THE WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 5 KTS OR BETTER. THE GFS SHUTS OFF
THE MOISTURE BY 07Z...BUT THINK THIS IS A BIT FAST. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY
AFTER WITH A WEST WIND.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY MAY INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH
THE LATEST UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS:
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING. EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND MAY
INCREASE TO A SOLID 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE NC WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS NECESSITATES THE EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET WILL
BUILD TO 3-5 FEET DUE TO THE PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH START UNDER EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS EARLY MONDAY...BUT A NICE
IMPROVING TREND AFTER THAT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST
NEARS THE COAST...MAKING FOR NICE MARINE CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS SOUTHWARD. 3-5 FT SEAS INITIALLY
EASING TO 2 TO 4 FT DURING TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS
WED MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS AND BECOMING EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER EAST THU WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS MAY FALL
SHORT OF 25 KT THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 6
FT AND AN SCA FOR THU OR THU NIGHT SEEMS PROBABLE. FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR
20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT WAVE
HEIGHTS SOUTHEAST OF BALD HEAD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/TRA/III
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1247 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
FOR THIS UPDATE INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING...AS
WELL AS CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LIMIT HOW FAR TEMPERATURES FALL
TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THE 00-01 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE MISSOURI COTEAU OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...AND ADDED
A MENTION INTO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 723 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
NO CHANGES REQUIRED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS...WITH
MULTIPLE FLOCKS OF BIRDS LAUNCHING FROM AREA LAKES AND REFUGES
CLEARING EVIDENT ON RADAR THROUGH 0044 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
AT 3 PM CDT...A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT. A WARM H850 THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND RESULTED IN MILD TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO 60 THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WAS HIT QUITE A BIT
OF STRATO-CU FORMED AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
FORMED ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL END BY
EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH AND WASH OUT AS
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP BY MORNING. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
ON MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PULL INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK. BEST MOISTURE POTENTIAL
OCCURS WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A COMBINATION OR RAIN THEN SNOW.
THEREAFTER...GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW AVERAGE MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG JET (120KT) WEST OF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST DIVING SOUTH WITH TIME. THIS IS HELPING
TO STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN
DOING SO...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE WITH SHARPLY
RISING HEIGHTS WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND INTO NORTHERN ALASKA MIDWEEK. THIS WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE
IN ESTABLISHING A COOLING TREND BY MID TO LATE WEEK ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEKEND...SO
THE COLDER AIR BEYOND SATURDAY SHOULD SUBSIDE AND BEGIN TO MODERATE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...ALL DISCUSSIONS AND MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPEND
UPON HOW AN OPEN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH AN
EJECTING UPPER/SURFACE COLORADO LOW MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST IMPACT RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA WITH MUCH LESSER PRECIPITATION NORTH. A DEFORMATION
ZONE SETS UP OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE H7-H5 UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRANSLATES FROM COLORADO TO NEBRASKA AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE BEST FORCING...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE/LAPSE
RATES...ALL COINCIDE TOGETHER WITHIN THIS DEFORMATION ZONE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES TUESDAY EVENING WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND A
PERIOD OF LOWER VISIBILITIES FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL 18Z WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER. STRONG FORCING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 35KT PER GFS AND
NAM...BUT MUCH WEAKER PER ECMWF...MAY RESULT IN LOW VISIBILITIES IN
FALLING SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BEFORE THE MAIN
SHIELD OF SNOW ENDS BY AROUND 18Z. WPC LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
RANGE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE AMOUNTS WILL
BE A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH WPC FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 VALID BETWEEN
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND INTO MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DECENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS TUESDAY EVENING IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE AREA. THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY FALLS SHY
OF REACHING SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED
MONITORING AS ANY SHIFT NORTH COULD PUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION IN A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW...NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA MENTIONED ABOVE WITH A COMPENSATORY STRONG
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TWO COLD
FRONTS SWEEPING THROUGH. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHT SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW. CONCERN WILL BE SNOW/BLOWING
SNOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 30-35KT ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY
THE COLD FRONT AND SNOW. AFTER COORDINATION WITH RAPID CITY AND
ABERDEEN FORECAST OFFICES...HAVE INCREASED WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10KT
OVER WHAT OUR MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...HAVE COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADJUSTED
MAX TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BY 5 TO 8 DEGREES THURSDAY WITH ONGOING
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND H85 TEMPS TAKING A TREND TOWARD THE -4C TO
-8C DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW RATHER
THAN RAIN. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL.
THE WIND AND SNOW END THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCING FRIDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS SECOND COLD
FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE LESS WIND AND SNOW WITH IT AS IT PUSHES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER H85 TEMPS ARE
COLDER...RANGING BETWEEN 0C IN THE SOUTHWEST TO -16C IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F TUESDAY WILL BE REPLACED
WITH 40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40F THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS MAY BUILD INTO KMOT AND KJMS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. KBIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS BANK...AND WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT KISN
AND KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
441 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS EARLY THIS MORNING. COOLER WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. WARMER
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE/FRONT THURSDAY. COOLER AIR OVER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IS OTS AND TECHS WERE BEING CONTACTED.
COLD FRONT WAS BLOWING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTY SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF IT AND GUSTY NW WINDS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT.
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING JUST A BIT BUT REMAINING GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO THIS EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FIRST THING THIS MORNING
BUT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD
DAWN TUE.
IT APPEARS STRATOCU BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE TENACIOUS
TODAY AND EVEN TONIGHT...WITH ABOUT A 100MB THICK MOIST LAYER
TRAPPED BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION. EVEN NOTORIOUSLY LOW MAV IS
ABOVE FREEZING ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...SO WILL NIX
HWO MENTION OF FREEZE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS BEEN STARTED...IN
KY...FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.
PREFERRED THE LOWER RUC FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY UNDER THE
OVERCAST. EVEN WITH BLENDING IN THE LOWEST OF THE GUIDANCE
OPTIONS...THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV...LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES FOR PRECIP
ARRIVAL THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND BRINGS DRY...BUT COOL
CONDITIONS. EVEN THOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ALOFT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. DECIDED TO GO SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN THE ISOLD VALLEYS...WHERE
LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR EAST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH RETURN
FLOW WILL SHOOT OUR TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 70S...FOR ANOTHER
GREAT SPRING DAY. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT THE HEAVIER PRECIP AND CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT...AS EXPLAINED
IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE
WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW
LOW SFC CAPE AND HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.25 INCHES. THESE PARAMETER COULD ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEREFORE...KEPT THUNDER UNDER LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY.
BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT A SECONDARY FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR.
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
BUT FASTER SYSTEM CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
USED THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE COLD FRONT BRINGING UNFAVORABLE TAKE OFF AND LANDING
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING.
THE FRONT WAS JUST APPROACHING WV FROM THE W AS OF 06Z. GUSTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING MVFR TO
BRIEF IFR CANDIDNESS...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS OR SO.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...WIND SHIFTS TO THE NW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
35 KTS AGAIN POSSIBLE. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN
AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE...BUT
CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD...06Z
TUE...AND GO IFR AT TIMES ACROSS RIDGES INCLUDING BKW.
W TO NW SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY MON BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING MON NT. MODERATE SW FLOW WILL BECOME
MODERATE TO STRONG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MON MORNING...AND
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT TO MODERATE NW MON NT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED MVFR /
IFR CONDITIONS WITH ACTIVE COLD FRONT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR MAY OCCUR ON MON BEHIND THE FRONT THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 03/28/16
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
209 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. WARMER
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE/FRONT THURSDAY. COOLER AIR AGAIN OVER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH ACTIVE FRONT ON WRN FLANK OF FCST AREA. STORM
THAT FORMED OUT AHEAD OF PRE-COLD-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS HAD ITS
ON FRESH FEED OF WARM MOIST AIR AND WAS LOCATED ALONG WARM FRONT.
MAIN LINE IS NOT SEVERE BUT CONTAINS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS AND FROM THE W TO NW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. ADDED GUSTY WORDING TO THE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
CRANKED UP THE GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO MON MORNING.
930 PM UPDATE...
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...AS LINE OF STORMS IN NW OHIO...INDIANA AND
WESTERN KY CONTINUES TO RACE EASTWARDS...AS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS...WITH STRENGTHENING
SHEAR OF 60+KTS OUT AHEAD OF FRONT. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF
WEAKENING OF STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LINE...AS
SOUTHERN STORMS STRENGTHEN...AND IT IS STILL YET TO BE SEEN HOW IT
WILL ALL PLAY OUT...BUT THERE IS A RISK FOR STRONG WINDS TONIGHT
WITH ANY CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... WITH MORNING UPDATE HAD PUT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AS A PSEUDO WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
CWA...HOWEVER RADAR ECHOS HAVE LARGELY DRIED UP SO TOOK THAT
MENTION BACK OUT. HRRR STILL TRIES TO KICK OFF A SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT WITH THICK CIRRUS NOW IN PLACE...DO NOT SEE US BEING
ABLE TO POP ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CU.
HAVE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND LOWER INTO THIS EVENING...AS
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM STARTS MAKING ITS WAY UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STILL THINKING WE COULD GET SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...SO LEFT SOME LOW POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS
TO NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HAVE 80-100 POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES. MUCH LIKE THE LAST DECENT COLD FRONT WE
HAD PASS...PWATS DRY UP SOME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SO HAVE
HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SE OHIO -- GENERALLY 0.5 INCH...TAPERING DOWN
TO ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
ANY INSTABILITY OF NOTE REMAINS LARGELY TO OUR WEST UNTIL SOME
200-400J/KG CAPE SLIDES THROUGH RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND BY
THAT TIME WE ARE GETTING INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD TO AROUND THE I-79 CORRIDOR BEFORE FADING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
850 MB THERMAL TROF PASSES AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...12Z NAM AND ECMWF
ABOUT 1 TO 2C COLDER THAN THE 12Z GFS. LOWERED MIN TEMP AOA 4000
THSD A DEGREE OR TWO...TRENDING COLDER THAN GFS.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THINNING MOISTURE UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AOB 5 THSD FT...SO CLOUD COVER TOUGH...WITH HOLES OPENING
UP. STILL HAVE THE LOWERING POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...MAYBE A SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER UP HIGH.
STILL THOUGHT ENOUGH CLEARING IN NE KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT FOR
POSSIBLE MIN TEMP NEAR FREEZING FOR DAWN TUESDAY. WILL INSERT IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR KY SINCE THAT IS WHERE OUR SPRING
FREEZE PROGRAM AS ALREADY STARTED. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT...DID NOT POST A
FREEZE WATCH.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR VICINITY AT START OF TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGHT NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY FORM IN VALLEYS BEFORE THE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST INCREASES 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SO LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
ANOTHER NICE MARCH DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...FOR THIS WARM MARCH OF 2016.
A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP SPREAD WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO 14C IN SRN
LOWLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WARM FRONT
COULD BRING SOME RAIN EARLY THURSDAY...BUT THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT LIKELY
POPS FOR THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW LOW SFC CAPE AND HIGH DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.25 INCHES. THESE
PARAMETER COULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...KEPT THUNDER UNDER LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY.
BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT A SECONDARY FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR.
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
BUT FASTER SYSTEM CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
USED THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE COLD FRONT BRINGING UNFAVORABLE TAKE OFF AND LANDING
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING.
THE FRONT WAS JUST APPROACHING WV FROM THE W AS OF 06Z. GUSTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING MVFR TO
BRIEF IFR CANDIDNESS...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS OR SO.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...WIND SHIFTS TO THE NW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
35 KTS AGAIN POSSIBLE. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN
AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE...BUT
CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD...06Z
TUE...AND GO IFR AT TIMES ACROSS RIDGES INCLUDING BKW.
W TO NW SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY MON BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING MON NT. MODERATE SW FLOW WILL BECOME
MODERATE TO STRONG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MON MORNING...AND
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT TO MODERATE NW MON NT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED MVFR /
IFR CONDITIONS WITH ACTIVE COLD FRONT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR MAY OCCUR ON MON BEHIND THE FRONT THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 03/28/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
924 PM PDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING SHOWERS TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON...WITH TEMPERATURES COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE CASCADES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END MONDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW DRIFTS S-SE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MUCH DRIER
AND MILDER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A BLOCKING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THAT
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.EVENING UPDATE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING...WITH A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE TO THE
SHOWERS FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. 02Z HRRR RUN INITIALIZES 500 MB TEMPS
AT -33 TO -34 DEG C IN THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT... PRESENTLY
JUST OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST. THIS COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST...MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER AND SMALL HAIL
ARE STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BEING ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS
TENDING TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
00Z FREEZING LEVEL AT SALEM WAS ABOUT 3500 FEET...WHICH SUGGESTS SNOW
MAY FALL AS LOW AS 2000 TO 2500 FEET IN SHOWERS. HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL DUSTINGS OF UP TO 1 INCH AT A TIME ABOVE 3000
FEET...BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT.
HOWEVER...SINCE AROUND 6 PM MOUNT HOOD HAS BEEN DIFFERENT. SNOTELS
NEAR MOUNT HOOD MEADOWS HAVE REPORTED AN IMPRESSIVE 4-6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN JUST THE PAST 2-4 HOURS. WITH FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM
THE W-NW...A TERRAIN-DRIVEN CONVERGENCE ZONE SET UP BETWEEN ESTACADA
AND MOUNT HOOD. SIMILAR TO THE INFAMOUS PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
NEAR SEATTLE...THIS PRODUCED A PERSISTENT BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW ON MOUNT HOOD...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH SLOPES. ANOTHER...
SIMILAR BAND OF SHOWERS IS SETTING UP CLOSER TO THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...AND WILL PROBABLY DRIFT TOWARD MOUNT HOOD AS WELL FOR A FEW
MORE INCHES OF SNOW. WE CONSIDERED A WINTER WX ADVISORY...BUT GIVEN
THE HIGHLY LOCALIZED NATURE OF THIS BAND WE DECIDED TO HANDLE IT
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. EITHER WAY...THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL
ACROSS MOUNT HOOD ALONG HWY 26 SHOULD CARRY CHAINS AND BE PREPARED
FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND THE PREVIOUS
SHORT AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS REMAIN VALID. WEAGLE
.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE
SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTAIN SMALL HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHT THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING THE PARENT
TROUGH SOUTHWARD. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC TO NEAR THE
WASHINGTON COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NW.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND FORMS A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW STATES (NEVADA AND
ARIZONA) MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME WITH DRY NORTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE
AREA. SOME CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PREVENT SKIES
FROM CLEARING COMPLETELY...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLEARING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. WITH DRY AIR MASS AND PARTIAL CLEARING COULD SEE PATCHY
FROST IN RURAL AREAS IF TEMPERATURES THERE DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S.
AFTER A CHILLY START AND SOME PATCHY FOG TUESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE
A PLEASANT AND MILD SPRING DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER
50S FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. ANOTHER COOL AND CLEAR NIGHT EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH DRY AIR WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TJ
RADAR UPDATE...NWS DOPPLER KRTX RADAR CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE
OCCASIONAL BUT BRIEF OUTAGES. AT THIS POINT...NO ESTIMATE AS TO WHEN
THIS ISSUE WILL BE RESOLVED.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FIRMLY
IN PLACE...CENTERED AROUND 135W...WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK ANCHORED BY A
PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND THE
OTHER OVER THE GREAT BASIN OR SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A FEW MORE DAYS OF MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY
AND PERHAPS FRIDAY AS WELL....THOUGH FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER TO SOUTH OF SALEM. HOWEVER...WILL START TO SEE CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A DISTURBANCE BREAKS DOWN THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SIMILAR DEPICTIONS OF THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
TIMING DIFFERENCES...SO UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS...AS THIS WAS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS MEANS COOLER TEMPERATURES...
CLOUDY SKIES...AND A RETURN OF SHOWERS JUST IN TIME FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF APRIL. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...AND RESULT IN A STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE LATE.
THIS SHOULD BRING PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME TENDENCY FOR A FEW TAF SITES TO EXPERIENCE MVFR
AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS 15Z MONDAY. MOS
GUIDANCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY KEEN ON IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...BUT
MVFR CONDITIONS CERTAINLY APPEAR LIKE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
BETWEEN FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z MONDAY. ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY LINGER LONGEST AT KSLE AND
KEUG DUE TO LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS UPSLOPING IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...A SHOWERY AND UNSTABLE PATTERN OVERNIGHT
WILL PRODUCE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE TOWARDS 15Z MONDAY...AND MAY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS
SCENARIO. EXPECT ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THAT DO DEVELOP TO TREND
VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z MONDAY. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BACK OFF
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE PEAKING NEAR 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MIDWEEK. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE COAST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY
BRING A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
IN THE MEANTIME...SEAS ARE CURRENTLY STEEP AND CHOPPY AT 8 TO 9
FT WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD AROUND 8 TO 9 SECONDS. SEAS SHOULD
CLIMB A BIT OVERNIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 10 FT BEFORE RELAXING
MONDAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY RELAX BELOW 10 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS FIRST ON MONDAY WITH THE NORTHERN WATERS TO FOLLOW.
WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK...EXPECT SEAS TO DROP INTO THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS AND BECOME PREDOMINANTLY FRESH SWELL AND/OR WIND
DOMINATED. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
PDT THIS EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
10 AM PDT MONDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
106 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
THIS FRONT WITH OVERALL DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 915 PM EDT SUNDAY...
00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWING PWAT OF 1.04 INCHES WITH DEEP MOISTURE UP
TO 600MB. RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME INTENSIFICATION TO THE RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA INTO THE NC PIEDMONT.
OVERALL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL FEED THE RAIN NORTH
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SHOULD SEE
A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY CONDITION OVER THE WEST UNTIL THE MAIN
FRONT TRACKS EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. STILL SOME
PATCHY RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY AT TIMES. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
REST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITH THE EVENING UPDATE MAINLY
FOCUSING THE HIGHER POPS EAST EARLY.
PREVIOUS LATE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOLID AREA OF RAIN NEAR THE TRIAD OF NC ESE
TO THE TRIANGLE AND MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND
RAP12 INCREASE THE RAIN THREAT OVER THE PIEDMONT TOWARD LATE
EVENING WHILE LEAVING THE MOUNTAINS IN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. AS SUCH MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR FORECAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THINGS BUT DECIDED TO LOWER POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS OVER THE WEST
PER LATEST TRENDS. HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CLOSES OFF A 500 MB LOWS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE ENTIRE TROF AXIS WILL BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING
AREA THIS EVENING THEN IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PROBABILITIES AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN. HAVE MAINTAINED A NARROW PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
WHERE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CAPES IN THE 100-400 J/KG RANGE.
SURFACE FRONT AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 15Z/11AM. CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN OVER THE WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS FOR THE REST OF MONDAY BUT AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE DRY ENOUGH SO CLEAR OUT THE REST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
SURFACE WIND BRIEFLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE WEDGE BREAKS JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL USE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET STILL FORECAST TO BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. MOMENTUM TRANSFER OFF OF
BUFKIT DID NOT SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...GUSTS ABOVE 40
KNOTS/46 MPH. BUT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...
TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BRINGING MOSTLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS
TO THE MOUNTAINS SCATTERING OUT AS YOU HEAD TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE.
CANT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR FLURRY ACROSS THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW AND WONT LAST LONG SO JUST LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BACK HALF OF TUESDAY AND THE ENTIRE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL
BE DRY.
DESPITE THE COLDER AIR FILTERING IN MONDAY NIGHT...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD HOLD THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION ABOVE FREEZING
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DIP JUST BELOW FREEZING. HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN VA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECT MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO FALL RIGHT AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND
TO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...
DEEPENING LOW THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE MARCHING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...TRAILING A COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON
THURSDAY. TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT...BUT
EARLY FORECASTS FROM WPC SHOW AROUND AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH ALMOST TWO INCHES ACROSS NW NC. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME UPSLOPE PRECIP DURING THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW JUST MENTION LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CROSSES ON FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT MONDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD OVERNIGHT...THEN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND WILL
BE AN ISSUE AT ALL TAF SITES FROM MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
INITIAL IMPULSE TO AFFECT THE KLYH-KDAN CORRIDOR THROUGH ABOUT
7Z/3AM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN/FOG AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE...APPEARS A
MIX OF FOG AND PATCHY SHOWERS TO KEEP VFR TO MVFR VSBYS IN PLACE
WITH VARIATION IN VSBYS LIKELY AS THE RAINFALL PASSES AND FOG
REDEVELOPS.
NEXT BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL
ATTEMPT TO WORK INTO THE WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY. THESE
SHOWERS LOOK TO AFFECT KLWB/KBLF AFTER 09Z/5AM...BUT LIKELY WILL
NOT MAKE IT FAR ACROSS THE RIDGES EARLY MONDAY BEFORE FADING PER
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THINK MOST DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS BAND
LIKELY TO EITHER PASS NORTH OR WEAKEN SO WONT INCLUDE ANY TSRA
MENTION FOR NOW.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING TIME FRAME...CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE
TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LINGER IN THE IFR-MVFR RANGE FOR
A FEW HOURS AROUND KBCB...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16Z/NOON...BUT
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN WV
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST VA BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE FLOW. AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NW 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS 28-35KTS
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS KBLF/KLWB INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER
STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS OR HIGHER
ALONG THE RIDGES INCLUDING KBLF/KROA/KBCB BUT LIGHTER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOW CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...CF
LONG TERM...CF/RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/RAB
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
CLOUDS WERE ON THE DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAINLY WEST OF A MEDFORD TO EAGLE RIVER
LINE. THIS CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH SUNRISE...
THEN ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
WHERE SKIES DO CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE...BUT ENOUGH
WIND ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD KEEP IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. LAST RUN OR TWO OF THE GFS DEPICTED SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE HRRR DEPICTED SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
LINCOLN AND ONEIDA COUNTIES AROUND 21-22Z. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATED STEEP LAPSE OF 8C FROM 950 TO 700MB AT RHINELANDER.
BASED ON THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WAS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. DID BUMP UP CLOUD COVER SOME ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
BASED ON THE LAYER CU RULE. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO INCREASE THEM A
LITTLE BIT MORE AS THE CU RULE WOULD SUGGEST SKIES WOULD GO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH.
ANY LINGERING SPRINKLES SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. THE COMBINATION OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOW COVER ACROSS THE
NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET LATER TONIGHT. WENT AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. ON TUESDAY...INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MIDDLE 50S. READINGS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER NEAR THE BAY
AND LAKE DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY. HIGHS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL BARELY CLIMB ABOVE 40.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
EXPECT PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW ALOFT. WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND MODELS INDICATED SOME MINOR
CAPE SO HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND AN INCH FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO RISING RIVER LEVELS.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AS IT
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO
MAINLY SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...BUT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT QUICKLY DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MAINLY MVFR CIGS TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
MAINLY IFR CIGS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WILL LINGER OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN...AND MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA MONDAY WILL
IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR CATEGORIES.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
843 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA
TODAY WILL RESULT IN COOL CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SLIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE HILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
TODAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND OCCURS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT MONDAY...GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA. IN FACT, PNS ISSUED EARLIER
(SFOPNSMTR) LISTED A SLEW OF SPOTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BLUSTERY TODAY DUE TO MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
AT THE SURFACE PLUS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
QUITE POSSIBLE WE MAY SEE A FEW SPOTS HITTING WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS, HOWEVER DURATION AND NUMBER OF LOCATIONS SHOULD BE SMALL.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES INTO
NEVADA. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY LEADING TO
HIGHS JUST IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST SPOTS.
AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WE MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR
TWO OVER HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES PLANNED.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW DIGGING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY...IT WILL PRODUCE COOL AND LOCALLY
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED ALONG THE
COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT BOTH THE SAN FRANCISCO AND HALF
MOON BAY AIRPORTS...AS WELL AS SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND WILL PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING
OFF THIS EVENING. BY LATE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL PROBABLY MEET WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT A FEW OF THE WINDIEST SPOTS ALONG AND NEAR
THE COAST SUCH AS POINT REYES AND SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
HILLS LATER TODAY...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN DIABLO RANGE SOUTH
INTO SAN BENITO COUNTY...AND ALSO ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE NORTH BAY
HILLS AND IN THE SANTA LUCIAS. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED SLIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES TO SOME OF OUR HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN BY TOMORROW WHICH WILL SHOULD DIMINISH SHOWER CHANCES IN OUR
AREA. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR AFTER TODAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHEAR APART BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST AND THE REST
SINKING SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT WARMING ON WEDNESDAY. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST. BY
THE END OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS...SOMETHING THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
AS RECENTLY AS YESTERDAY THE GFS HAD INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF
WET WEATHER RETURNING BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BUT THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER...WHICH AGREES WITH THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:31 AM PDT MONDAY...DIGGING UPPER LOW AND
SOLID COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS REALLY RAMPED UP THE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. LESS OF A CONCERN...BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY ARE SOME
AFTERNOON CU/POP UP SHOWERS. BEST CHC FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS EAST
OF THE REGION...BUT WILL CARRY A TEMPO SHRA FOR KLVK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS.
VICINITY OF KSFO....GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS
OVER 35 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO BUT WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 30 KT.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A PASSING CIG OR TWO POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY KMRY. OTHERWISE...GUSTY AND VFR THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:31 AM PDT MONDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS WITH GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. LIGHTER WIND AND SEAS ARE THEN
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
GLW...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: R_WALBRUN
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
619 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
Band of moderate to occasionally heavy snow continues along and
north of the I-80 corridor with the southern edge of the band
sliding ever so slowly south toward Carson City-Dayton. Snow
amounts have been in the 2 to 5 inch range thus far in the heavier
snow bands with gusty north winds resulting in localized blowing
and drifting snow. Latest finer scale HRRR model run indicates
only a very slow drift south and east during the morning hours and
then accelerating southward around 18-20z. There may be occasionalletups
at KTRK-KRNO-KLOL-KCXP, but given the stationary nature of this
system, CIGS/VSBY will remain restricted with MVFR/periods of IFR
continuing through 18z.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
UPDATE...
The band continues to develop near and north of I-80 at this hour.
Latest models keep the band in this vicinity through 8 AM before
it slowly shifts south. Updating to keep most snow accumulation
near and north of I-80 and reducing accumulations near and south
of Highway 50. Also cancelling the advisory for southern Lyon
County as the band will not make it there until late morning. By
then, solar heating will be enough to preclude any road
accumulation. Wallmann
SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue moving through the Sierra and
Western Nevada this morning. Snow showers will occur behind the
front today with the heaviest band expected along I-80 this morning.
The upper low will continue to influence area weather into Wednesday
as it slowly pulls east with scattered showers and cold
temperatures. Mild and dry weather returns for late week.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue moving through the Sierra and
Western Nevada this morning. Snow showers will occur behind the
front today with the heaviest band expected along I-80 this
morning. The upper low will continue to influence area weather
into Wednesday as it slowly pulls east with scattered showers and
cold temperatures. Mild and dry weather returns for late week.
SHORT TERM...
The snow event is getting underway as I write this. The surface
cold front is now along a line from Portola to Palomino Valley and
then almost to Highway 50 in Churchill County. Showers have
developed west of the crest and are moving east along the
boundary. Currently, temps are mild from I-80 southward and around
40-45 degrees, but are in the 30s behind the front. With precip
now moving in along I-80, areas below 5000 feet will start as
rain, but expect it to change to snow north of Highway 50 by 6 AM.
As for the band, the NAM/GFS/HRRR are hitting the I-80 corridor
the hardest. The NAM actually shows close to 1" of water in the
Reno/Sparks North Valleys. This is likely overdone, but 1/2" seems
plausible. With the cold air coming in, this will mostly be snow
and 3-6" of snow seems likely along the I-80 corridor above 4500
feet. Lighter amounts farther south away from this main band.
Roads will be slick this morning near I-80 and also into eastern
Plumas County due to the snow. Be prepared for a longer than
normal commute and the advisories will continue as is.
One thing to note is that the band doesn`t make it to southern
Lyon County until late morning. If this occurs, any snow that
falls will melt on impact, especially on the roads due to the
higher late March sun angle.
As we move into the afternoon, the cold pool moves overhead and
expect snow showers to continue across the area, but little
accumulation due to solar heating. Any lake effect for Pyramid
Lake looks less likely today as models now show the winds being
more Northeast, and also 30+ kts at 700 mb. This is in addition
to the diurnal minimum in LES during the afternoon. Still, plenty
of showers will be around in the instability.
The upper low then only slowly pulls away into Wednesday. A
northeast flow will continue on the backside Tuesday and
Wednesday. Showers look more likely Tuesday as the cold pool
remains close enough. Wednesday the instability is weaker and more
south of I-80 so just have a slight chance of showers there.
Temperatures will slowly moderate from today`s much below average
readings, but remain below normal into Wednesday. Wallmann
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...
Only minor changes were made as the previous forecast thinking is on
track. Temperatures will begin to warm Thursday although northeast
flow aloft will persist for one more day and keep the warmup slow
initially. This will be the poorest day for mixing as surface
warming will not keep up with warming temperatures aloft, resulting
in moderate inversions. Friday, we expect temperatures to jump 7-10
degrees with a better mixing profile.
For the weekend, instability and weak shortwave may be sufficient
for isolated showers (probably not much more) across far northeast
CA and northwest NV. Given the northern track of this shortwave,
showers in the Sierra are unlikely and we have removed the mention
there. Otherwise, it is going to be an unseasonably mild weekend
with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 Sierra valleys and mid
60s to low 70s western NV valleys.
AVIATION...
A cold front moving southward into western NV early this morning
will continue to drop south and allow colder air to settle into the
I-80/Hwy 50 corridors. Meanwhile, instability continues to increase
as upper low drops into the region with band of rain and snow
intensifying near and north of I-80. Some models are indicating some
impressive bands of precipitation developing through 15z and right
now, it appears that zone will be very close to where it is setting
up currently which would have bigger impacts for KTRK-KRNO-KLOL.
Temps and dewpoints are currently too warm for much accumulation
below 5000 feet and this will likely remain the case outside of
heavier bands of precipitation even though we do anticipate a
changeover to all snow during the morning hours. So the key to
getting accumulation on area runways will be location of most
intense snow bands prior to 16z. Light accumulations are already
occurring at KTRK and we will just have to monitor radar trends for
KRNO-KLOL. The band is forecast to slide south into Mono-Mineral
County this afternoon and evening with some light accumulations
possible at KMMH near or after sundown. Right now, due to the timing
of the band (later in the morning) at KTVL-KCXP-KNFL, accumulations
look minimal. There could still be some brief slushy accumulations
if snow showers become sufficiently heavy. But any accumulation
will melt quickly once the snow showers pass.
Otherwise, expect periods of IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBY during snow showers
with terrain obscurement, especially close to the Sierra. Hohmann
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning NVZ003-004.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
929 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND IS
ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ASCD
WITH THE SFC CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WELL AS SOME
INDUCED VERTICAL MOTION ASCD WITH A JET MAXIMA WHICH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DEPARTING THE AREA. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM XMR SHOWS A
MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OF THE SLOWLY
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MAIN STORM HAZARD WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING AND SFC WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN
STRONGER STORMS. COOLER H5 TEMPS (-11C) CAN PROMOTE SOME SMALL HAIL
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IN PLACE TO CHALLENGE
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. LTST HRRR GUID INDICATES THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONV DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLOWLY
ADVANCES SWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL FL DURING THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST FEATURING SCT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THIS SETUP AND NO ADJUSTMENTS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
PREVIOUS DISC) PRE FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK
SUFFICIENTLY COOL (MINUS 11 TO 12 CELSIUS AT 500MB) TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION. CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER BUT MAX
TEMPS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. NO DISCRETE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES WERE NOTED BUT PROXIMITY OF JET AXIS SHOULD PROVIDE AREAS
OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. NOT SURE IF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CAN FORM
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WESTERLY FLOW STARTING OUT NEAR
15 KNOTS. A WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INDICATED LATE IN
THE DAY AND THE HRRR IS SHOWING A SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST...
SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. MOS POPS CAME IN NEAR 40 PERCENT AREAWIDE AND HAVE MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GOING WITH 30 PERCENT FAR
NORTH...40 PERCENT CENTRAL AND 50 PERCENT SOUTH.
EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE EVENING AS HIGH MOISTURE AND
BOUNDARIES LINGER. MOS SHOWS FRONTAL TYPE FOG/LOW STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS
VISIBILITY DOES NOT LOOK VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
EARLY IFR-MVFR CEILINGS IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL MIX OUT AND LIFT
ABOVE IFR COVERAGE BY 15Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOULD FAVOR COASTAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY FM KTIX SOUTH TO KSUA AND KOBE.
&&
.MARINE...
RECENT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WELL AS THE UPR WIND
MAXIMA ASCD WITH DEPARTING JET FEATURE HAS BROUGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
UP TO 15 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA WILL LIFT OUT AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW COULD BE STRONG. WESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AS WEAKENING FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
JP/TES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
618 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
An upper level trough across the pacific northwest will dig
southeast into NV and UT Tonight and amplify. A downstream upper
level ridge will amplify across the the central and southern plains.
A lee surface trough will deepen across eastern CO which will cause
south-southeast winds across eastern KS to increase through the
afternoon hours to 10 to 20 MPH with gusts of 15 to 30 MPH. The
stronger surface winds will occur across north central KS. The
southerly winds will help to warm high temperatures into the mid to
upper 60s.
Tonight...the low-level jet will increase across western OK and the
western half of KS through the night. This will result in the
transport of deeper moisture northward into western KS. The
resulting isentropic lift will cause elevated showers and
thunderstorms to late tonight across west central KS. A few of these
showers and elevated thunderstorms may move into the far western
counties towards sunrise. Most of the numerical models show the
showers and elevated storms remaining west of the CWA. I placed a 15-
20 percent pop in the western counties late tonight, in case a few
of these elevated storms reach the western counties. The model
forecasts show only 100 to 400 j/kg of MUCAPE, so these elevated
storms will not be strong or severe. southeast surface winds will
keep overnight lows in the lower to mid 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Will keep some small pops going through the day Tuesday as
isentropic lift weakens but southwest flow aloft could bring any
precip on east. High cloud should stay rather thick with strong
south winds beginning to saturate the lower levels in central
Kansas. Have lowered highs a bit with more cloud expectations. Will
need to continue to watch wind speeds in the afternoon and night,
but a more backed lower level profile suggests less concern than
before. Am less convinced of precip development Tuesday night into
early Wednesday with weak elevated mixed layer in place, but
moistening does occur aloft under diffluent jet, and could yet get
some sprinkles in the saturating lower levels.
Concern for severe storms remains for Wednesday afternoon and night.
Upper trough rotating out of the western low pushes into the Central
Plains in the day and on east into the Mississippi Valley Wednesday
night with 500mb height falls around 110 m during the day. Dryline
will push through much of Kansas during the day, but differences
remain on timing and how much destabilization can occur as winds
remain stout from the south with mixed layer aloft for a persistent
stratus scenario, though CAPE could exceed 1000 J/kg. Strong wind
fields aloft with 500mb winds in the 50-70kt range will bring
considerable shear potential, but again much in the specifics remain
to be desired in the lower levels based on timing and mixing
uncertainty.
Passage of the upper wave should dry the column out enough to keep
any thing more than a few sprinkles in check from any weak northern
branch energy Thursday into Friday. Upper flow backs into the
weekend with old surface ridge to the south keeping moisture return
retarded. High temps should moderate from the 50s to the 60s during
these periods.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Southerly winds
will strengthen later this morning, with sustained 10-15 knots and
gusts near 20 knots. Winds will then decrease to 5-10 knots after
00z this evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Expect a very high fire danger across the CWA this afternoon. Some
areas across the western half of the CWA may be near red flag
conditions. As the lee surface trough across eastern CO deepens this
afternoon the surface pressure gradient will increase across central
KS causing south-southeast surface winds to increase to 15 to 20 MPH
with some gusts up to 30 MPH. The RAP forecast soundings show deeper
mixing up to 800mb across north central KS which would cause
dewpoints to mix out into the upper teens and lower 20s causing
minimum RHs to drop below 20 percent. Since the winds will be
slightly backed to the south-southeast the RAP may be mixing the
boundary layer too deep. At this time I`m leaning more towards a
model blend in which several members show the boundary layer only
mixing up to around 850mb which would keep afternoon dewpoints in the
mid to upper 20s and result in minimum RHs in the 21-27 percent
range. The stronger wind gusts probably will not occur until the
late afternoon hours.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Baerg
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
743 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TRACKING E THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUPPORTING SOME
MID CLOUDS OVER ERN ND AND NRN MN. AT SFC...TIGHT GRADIENT ON
BACKSIDE OF LOW CENTERED OVER THE SRN TIP OF LAKE HURON HAS
SUPPORTED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
THE SFC LOW COMBINED WITH ONSHORE/UPSLOPE NORTHERLY WINDS HAS
SUPPORTED DZ/FZDZ AND PATCHY FOG OVER PORTIONS OF NCNTRL UPPER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING FZDZ TO CAUSE MANY ISSUES ON
ROADS/SIDEWALKS AS WARM GROUND AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT
ICE ACCUMULATION. AT SAME TIME...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE DRAWING IN
INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR FROM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER WRN AND NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER MI.
MODEL SOUNDINGS...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST DRIER AIR AT
LOW-LVLS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH CONTINUED ADVANCEMENT OF SFC RDGG FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS DRYING SHOULD EFFECTIVELY PUT END TO LINGERING
DZ/PATCHY FOG BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS...BUT
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF SKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER PORTIONS OF
NCNTRL/ERN CWA UNDER LINGERING CYCLONIC UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW.
WITH SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...EXPECT A SEASONABLY COLD FROSTY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
FOCUS ON WED NIGHT-THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR GLANCES THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN SHOWING A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE BEING KICKED E BY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE NORTHERN STREAM PUNCH WILL CAUSE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS PHASING AND JET STREAM COUPLING
OCCUR...AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH BETTER PHASING.
MORE MINOR...RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. THE 00Z/28 GFS AND 12Z/27 ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT...WITH THE 00Z/28 GLOBAL GEM TRENDING TOWARD THESE MODELS.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z/28 NAM IS VERY DIFFERENT...SO WILL NOT USE THAT
MODEL AND STICK WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. DYNAMIC COOLING ALONG WITH
CAA WILL TRANSITION RAIN TO SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THE 850MB LOW
TRACK LATE WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT...THEN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT
PULLS OUT THU. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 984MB SFC LOW
MOVING FROM GRB AT 12Z THU TO NEAR THE STRAITS OF MACK AT 981MB BY
18Z THU...THEN INTO CANADA BY 00Z FRI. THIS TRACK RESULTS IN SEVERAL
INCHES (POSSIBLY OVER A FOOT GIVEN QPF OF 1-1.25 INCHES FROM THE
ECMWF AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES FROM THE GFS...BOTH DURING TIMES WHEN
PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW) OF HEAVY SNOW TO MAINLY NW OF A
LINE FROM MUNISING TO IRON MOUNTAIN...WITH THE HEAVIEST SWATH FROM
WATERSMEET TO BARAGA/L`ANSE. THIS IS A PRETTY VOLATILE SYSTEM...SO
EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. BIG FOCUS
RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...SO STAY TUNED.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -13C FRI...WHICH WILL BE GOOD FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE
TOWARD A GLANCING SHOT AND WARMER OVERALL. WILL KEEP LIKELY LES POPS
SAT INTO SUN...BUT TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AND TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
FCST PD AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. AT
KSAW...LOW MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FCST
PD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
WITH LOW PRES TRACKING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING..NNW WINDS 15-25KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY. CLOSER TO AN ADVANCING HIGH PRES RIDGE...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER
15KT...WILL THEN BECOME THE RULE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT THRU AT
LEAST TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. SE TO S WINDS WILL
THEN BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TUE THRU WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF FLOW... STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...PROBABLY TO 20-30KT. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES WED NIGHT AND A LOW PRES WAVE TRACKS LONG THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE TO NEAR 30KT WED NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST NE-N GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THU/THU EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE ON FRI BEFORE A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF GALES
DURING THE DAY SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
654 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Early this morning, skies had cleared across the forecast area as
high pressure settled across the area. Under the clear skies and
light winds, temperatures have dropped into the lower to middle 30s.
After a cold start to the day, the surface high will move off to the
east this afternoon, resulting in a more southerly wind component.
With the dry air in place, and ample sunshine temperatures will
rebound rather quickly back to near seasonal normals in the lower to
middle 60s.
Southerly low level flow, albeit light, will hold temperatures up a
little tonight from this mornings cold readings despite clear
skies. The coldest readings will be across the eastern Ozarks
where lows will drop into the middle 30s, and can not rule out
some patchy frost in some of the low lying areas. Otherwise, upper
30s to lower 40s will be common across the remainder of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Stronger southerly flow establishes itself on Tuesday ahead of
rather vigorous storm system evolving over the inter-mountain
west and High Plains. Despite moisture being advected northward,
winds look to rather strong and relative humidities dropping into
the 25 to 35 percent range leading to elevated fire weather
concerns.
Attention then turns to the evolution of the inter-mountain deep
trough that begins to push out into the Plains. There still
remains some timing issues with the surface features between the
NAM and GFS with the GFS and ECMWF the more progressive of the
model suite. Overall, CAPE/Shear parameters look sufficient to
support a limited to elevated risk of strong to severe storms.
Confidence is medium with regards to this system, but low in
discerning storm mode. Based on position of cold front/dry line
and plume of higher instabilities from current suite of models,
highest risk looks to be west of highway 65 and this is where
current SPC day 3 outlook highlights a slight risk.
The more progressive and preferred solutions would push system
out late Wednesday night with dry, quiet and cooler day for
Thursday into Saturday, with near or just slightly below seasonal
normals. Medium range models indicating upper flow to become
slightly more zonal on Sunday which looks to begin a warming
trend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Other than some patchy fog over the
next couple of hours, vfr conditions are expected with high
pressure passing through then off to the east today/tonight.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ058-071-082-
083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>057-
066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
654 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Early this morning, skies had cleared across the forecast area as
high pressure settled across the area. Under the clear skies and
light winds, temperatures have dropped into the lower to middle 30s.
After a cold start to the day, the surface high will move off to the
east this afternoon, resulting in a more southerly wind component.
With the dry air in place, and ample sunshine temperatures will
rebound rather quickly back to near seasonal normals in the lower to
middle 60s.
Southerly low level flow, albeit light, will hold temperatures up a
little tonight from this mornings cold readings despite clear
skies. The coldest readings will be across the eastern Ozarks
where lows will drop into the middle 30s, and can not rule out
some patchy frost in some of the low lying areas. Otherwise, upper
30s to lower 40s will be common across the remainder of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Stronger southerly flow establishes itself on Tuesday ahead of
rather vigorous storm system evolving over the inter-mountain
west and High Plains. Despite moisture being advected northward,
winds look to rather strong and relative humidities dropping into
the 25 to 35 percent range leading to elevated fire weather
concerns.
Attention then turns to the evolution of the inter-mountain deep
trough that begins to push out into the Plains. There still
remains some timing issues with the surface features between the
NAM and GFS with the GFS and ECMWF the more progressive of the
model suite. Overall, CAPE/Shear parameters look sufficient to
support a limited to elevated risk of strong to severe storms.
Confidence is medium with regards to this system, but low in
discerning storm mode. Based on position of cold front/dry line
and plume of higher instabilities from current suite of models,
highest risk looks to be west of highway 65 and this is where
current SPC day 3 outlook highlights a slight risk.
The more progressive and preferred solutions would push system
out late Wednesday night with dry, quiet and cooler day for
Thursday into Saturday, with near or just slightly below seasonal
normals. Medium range models indicating upper flow to become
slightly more zonal on Sunday which looks to begin a warming
trend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Other than some patchy fog over the
next couple of hours, vfr conditions are expected with high
pressure passing through then off to the east today/tonight.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ058-071-082-
083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>057-
066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
654 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Early this morning, skies had cleared across the forecast area as
high pressure settled across the area. Under the clear skies and
light winds, temperatures have dropped into the lower to middle 30s.
After a cold start to the day, the surface high will move off to the
east this afternoon, resulting in a more southerly wind component.
With the dry air in place, and ample sunshine temperatures will
rebound rather quickly back to near seasonal normals in the lower to
middle 60s.
Southerly low level flow, albeit light, will hold temperatures up a
little tonight from this mornings cold readings despite clear
skies. The coldest readings will be across the eastern Ozarks
where lows will drop into the middle 30s, and can not rule out
some patchy frost in some of the low lying areas. Otherwise, upper
30s to lower 40s will be common across the remainder of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Stronger southerly flow establishes itself on Tuesday ahead of
rather vigorous storm system evolving over the inter-mountain
west and High Plains. Despite moisture being advected northward,
winds look to rather strong and relative humidities dropping into
the 25 to 35 percent range leading to elevated fire weather
concerns.
Attention then turns to the evolution of the inter-mountain deep
trough that begins to push out into the Plains. There still
remains some timing issues with the surface features between the
NAM and GFS with the GFS and ECMWF the more progressive of the
model suite. Overall, CAPE/Shear parameters look sufficient to
support a limited to elevated risk of strong to severe storms.
Confidence is medium with regards to this system, but low in
discerning storm mode. Based on position of cold front/dry line
and plume of higher instabilities from current suite of models,
highest risk looks to be west of highway 65 and this is where
current SPC day 3 outlook highlights a slight risk.
The more progressive and preferred solutions would push system
out late Wednesday night with dry, quiet and cooler day for
Thursday into Saturday, with near or just slightly below seasonal
normals. Medium range models indicating upper flow to become
slightly more zonal on Sunday which looks to begin a warming
trend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Other than some patchy fog over the
next couple of hours, vfr conditions are expected with high
pressure passing through then off to the east today/tonight.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ058-071-082-
083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>057-
066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
653 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Surface ridge will be over region today with sunny skies and light
winds. Despite starting off rather cold, in the upper 20s to upper
30s, temperatures to warm up into the upper 50s to mid 60s by this
afternoon.
Will keep freeze warning/frost advisory going til 9 am.
Byrd
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
(Tonight)
Surface ridge will initially this evening be near or just east of
the Mississippi River and will slowly edge eastward overnight
tonight. Winds will start off light/variable but gradually turn
predominantly southeasterly from west to east and increase in speed.
Another seasonably cool night looks in store for the bi-state
area...though not as cool as 24 hours prior. Expect lows mainly in
the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. Coldest locations should be across
favored spots across the eastern Ozarks where patchy or areas of
frost may develop.
(Tuesday)
Southeasterly return flow around departing ridge will strengthen
during the day on Tuesday. In addition...midlevel ridge axis
amplifies and moves toward mid-Mississippi Valley which should help
lead to slightly warmer high temperatures compared to that expected
of today. High temperatues are expected to be in the 60s to near 70
degrees. Increasing mid/high level cloudiness may help keep
temperatures in check however.
(Wednesday/Wednesday Night)
Next system of interest will affect the region on Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Strengthening low-level warm/moist advection
beneath diffluence and DCPVA aloft should aid in development of
showers and thunderstorms as early as Wednesday morning. Coverage of
showers/storms however should increase with cold front coming in on
Wednesday night. Synoptic setup looks fairly similar to last
Wednesday`s storm. Timing of cold front (as it looks right now)
being late overnight does not look particularly favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms as the instability wanes with nocturnal
cooling. However...strong deep-layer shear combined with UL dynamics
and associated cooling aloft may produce a few strong/severe
thunderstorms across the area with the best chances across northeast
Missouri during the course of the evening hours.
(Thursday - Sunday)
By Thursday morning...cold front should almost be clearing the CWA
with a lingering chance for showers mainly for south-central
Illinois. A mostly cloudy sky along with low-level cold advection
should yield highs on Thursday 5-15 degrees colder compared to
Wednesday.
The rest of the extended looks dry with slightly below normal
temperatures. Cannot rule out a light freeze for portions of the
area on Friday night/Saturday morning if wind speeds are low enough.
As alluded to by dayshift...this next upcoming weekend looks much
warmer than it did 24-48 hours ago with the core of the arctic air
now looking like it will hit the eastern Great Lakes and the
northeastern United States instead of further southwest. As a
result...temperatures should remain near to slightly below normal
but nothing extreme.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Light west winds to become light and variable later today as
surface ridge builds in. Then winds to pickup a bit late tonight
from the east to southeast. Another issue is some patchy fog, so
added mention to KUIN and KSUS through about 13z Monday. Otherwise,
vfr conditions to prevail through forecast period.
Specifics for KSTL:
West winds to become light and variable by 00z Tuesday as surface
ridge builds in. Then winds to pickup a bit late tonight from the
east to southeast. Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail through
forecast period.
Byrd
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 61 41 65 51 / 0 0 0 5
Quincy 59 39 64 46 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 63 41 68 49 / 0 0 0 10
Jefferson City 64 40 67 50 / 0 0 0 5
Salem 59 38 63 46 / 0 0 0 0
Farmington 62 34 64 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby
MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
653 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Surface ridge will be over region today with sunny skies and light
winds. Despite starting off rather cold, in the upper 20s to upper
30s, temperatures to warm up into the upper 50s to mid 60s by this
afternoon.
Will keep freeze warning/frost advisory going til 9 am.
Byrd
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
(Tonight)
Surface ridge will initially this evening be near or just east of
the Mississippi River and will slowly edge eastward overnight
tonight. Winds will start off light/variable but gradually turn
predominantly southeasterly from west to east and increase in speed.
Another seasonably cool night looks in store for the bi-state
area...though not as cool as 24 hours prior. Expect lows mainly in
the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. Coldest locations should be across
favored spots across the eastern Ozarks where patchy or areas of
frost may develop.
(Tuesday)
Southeasterly return flow around departing ridge will strengthen
during the day on Tuesday. In addition...midlevel ridge axis
amplifies and moves toward mid-Mississippi Valley which should help
lead to slightly warmer high temperatures compared to that expected
of today. High temperatues are expected to be in the 60s to near 70
degrees. Increasing mid/high level cloudiness may help keep
temperatures in check however.
(Wednesday/Wednesday Night)
Next system of interest will affect the region on Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Strengthening low-level warm/moist advection
beneath diffluence and DCPVA aloft should aid in development of
showers and thunderstorms as early as Wednesday morning. Coverage of
showers/storms however should increase with cold front coming in on
Wednesday night. Synoptic setup looks fairly similar to last
Wednesday`s storm. Timing of cold front (as it looks right now)
being late overnight does not look particularly favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms as the instability wanes with nocturnal
cooling. However...strong deep-layer shear combined with UL dynamics
and associated cooling aloft may produce a few strong/severe
thunderstorms across the area with the best chances across northeast
Missouri during the course of the evening hours.
(Thursday - Sunday)
By Thursday morning...cold front should almost be clearing the CWA
with a lingering chance for showers mainly for south-central
Illinois. A mostly cloudy sky along with low-level cold advection
should yield highs on Thursday 5-15 degrees colder compared to
Wednesday.
The rest of the extended looks dry with slightly below normal
temperatures. Cannot rule out a light freeze for portions of the
area on Friday night/Saturday morning if wind speeds are low enough.
As alluded to by dayshift...this next upcoming weekend looks much
warmer than it did 24-48 hours ago with the core of the arctic air
now looking like it will hit the eastern Great Lakes and the
northeastern United States instead of further southwest. As a
result...temperatures should remain near to slightly below normal
but nothing extreme.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Light west winds to become light and variable later today as
surface ridge builds in. Then winds to pickup a bit late tonight
from the east to southeast. Another issue is some patchy fog, so
added mention to KUIN and KSUS through about 13z Monday. Otherwise,
vfr conditions to prevail through forecast period.
Specifics for KSTL:
West winds to become light and variable by 00z Tuesday as surface
ridge builds in. Then winds to pickup a bit late tonight from the
east to southeast. Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail through
forecast period.
Byrd
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 61 41 65 51 / 0 0 0 5
Quincy 59 39 64 46 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 63 41 68 49 / 0 0 0 10
Jefferson City 64 40 67 50 / 0 0 0 5
Salem 59 38 63 46 / 0 0 0 0
Farmington 62 34 64 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby
MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
653 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Surface ridge will be over region today with sunny skies and light
winds. Despite starting off rather cold, in the upper 20s to upper
30s, temperatures to warm up into the upper 50s to mid 60s by this
afternoon.
Will keep freeze warning/frost advisory going til 9 am.
Byrd
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
(Tonight)
Surface ridge will initially this evening be near or just east of
the Mississippi River and will slowly edge eastward overnight
tonight. Winds will start off light/variable but gradually turn
predominantly southeasterly from west to east and increase in speed.
Another seasonably cool night looks in store for the bi-state
area...though not as cool as 24 hours prior. Expect lows mainly in
the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. Coldest locations should be across
favored spots across the eastern Ozarks where patchy or areas of
frost may develop.
(Tuesday)
Southeasterly return flow around departing ridge will strengthen
during the day on Tuesday. In addition...midlevel ridge axis
amplifies and moves toward mid-Mississippi Valley which should help
lead to slightly warmer high temperatures compared to that expected
of today. High temperatues are expected to be in the 60s to near 70
degrees. Increasing mid/high level cloudiness may help keep
temperatures in check however.
(Wednesday/Wednesday Night)
Next system of interest will affect the region on Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Strengthening low-level warm/moist advection
beneath diffluence and DCPVA aloft should aid in development of
showers and thunderstorms as early as Wednesday morning. Coverage of
showers/storms however should increase with cold front coming in on
Wednesday night. Synoptic setup looks fairly similar to last
Wednesday`s storm. Timing of cold front (as it looks right now)
being late overnight does not look particularly favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms as the instability wanes with nocturnal
cooling. However...strong deep-layer shear combined with UL dynamics
and associated cooling aloft may produce a few strong/severe
thunderstorms across the area with the best chances across northeast
Missouri during the course of the evening hours.
(Thursday - Sunday)
By Thursday morning...cold front should almost be clearing the CWA
with a lingering chance for showers mainly for south-central
Illinois. A mostly cloudy sky along with low-level cold advection
should yield highs on Thursday 5-15 degrees colder compared to
Wednesday.
The rest of the extended looks dry with slightly below normal
temperatures. Cannot rule out a light freeze for portions of the
area on Friday night/Saturday morning if wind speeds are low enough.
As alluded to by dayshift...this next upcoming weekend looks much
warmer than it did 24-48 hours ago with the core of the arctic air
now looking like it will hit the eastern Great Lakes and the
northeastern United States instead of further southwest. As a
result...temperatures should remain near to slightly below normal
but nothing extreme.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Light west winds to become light and variable later today as
surface ridge builds in. Then winds to pickup a bit late tonight
from the east to southeast. Another issue is some patchy fog, so
added mention to KUIN and KSUS through about 13z Monday. Otherwise,
vfr conditions to prevail through forecast period.
Specifics for KSTL:
West winds to become light and variable by 00z Tuesday as surface
ridge builds in. Then winds to pickup a bit late tonight from the
east to southeast. Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail through
forecast period.
Byrd
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 61 41 65 51 / 0 0 0 5
Quincy 59 39 64 46 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 63 41 68 49 / 0 0 0 10
Jefferson City 64 40 67 50 / 0 0 0 5
Salem 59 38 63 46 / 0 0 0 0
Farmington 62 34 64 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby
MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
610 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Short Term (Today - Tuesday night):
The main concern in the short term will be the cold temperatures
this morning and any impacts on sensitive vegetation. Temperatures
this morning will bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s most
locations. As such a freeze warning is in place this morning until
9AM. Otherwise, temperatures will begin to warm up quickly this
morning with clear skies, increasing southerly winds and upper level
ridging building into the area. Expect highs to top out in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Expect WAA to increase Monday night into Tuesday
with lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Tuesday in
the 60s to near 70. With warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
strong southerly winds, there may be a elevated fire danger on
Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday into Tuesday night models depict a
weak shortwave ejecting out from a broad upper level trough over the
Great Basin region. This weak shortwave will move through the
Central Plains and bring the chance for a few showers or isolated
thunderstorm across extreme northeast Kansas and northern Missouri
Tuesday night.
Medium Range (Wednesday - Thursday night):
This will be the active portion of the forecast period with the
potential for stronger storms on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
strong upper level trough will eject out from the Great Basin into
the Central Plains. This will force a cold front into eastern Kansas
on Wednesday. The GFS and EC develop showers and thunderstorms
across the area earlier in the day Wednesday this would provide for
more cloud cover and would limit instability despite strong shear
and adequate moisture to support severe weather. The NAM is a little
slower and does not develop showers and thunderstorms earlier in the
day. This would lead to much stronger instability to go along with
the aforementioned shear and moisture. Consequently, severe
potential will hinge on timing of the system and whether we have
early day showers limiting instability. In any rate, showers and
thunderstorms will affect the CWA Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s however,
Thursday will be much cooler behind the cold front with highs in the
50s. The upper level trough will move through the area on Thursday
bringing the slight chance for showers to the northern CWA.
Extended Range (Friday through Sunday):
The extended range will feature dry weather with a warming trend. By
Friday deep upper level troughing will cover the CONUS east of the
Rockies. This will lead to cool conditions on Friday with highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday, the broad upper level troughing
begins to shift northeast and we experience height rises across the
area raising highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday the upper
level flow becomes more quasi-zonal which allows temperatures to
further warm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with just few-sct high clouds.
Winds will be light this morning increasing out of the south to
10kts later this morning. Winds this evening will back to the SE and
remain around 10kts.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ013>017-
020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
610 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Short Term (Today - Tuesday night):
The main concern in the short term will be the cold temperatures
this morning and any impacts on sensitive vegetation. Temperatures
this morning will bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s most
locations. As such a freeze warning is in place this morning until
9AM. Otherwise, temperatures will begin to warm up quickly this
morning with clear skies, increasing southerly winds and upper level
ridging building into the area. Expect highs to top out in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Expect WAA to increase Monday night into Tuesday
with lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Tuesday in
the 60s to near 70. With warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
strong southerly winds, there may be a elevated fire danger on
Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday into Tuesday night models depict a
weak shortwave ejecting out from a broad upper level trough over the
Great Basin region. This weak shortwave will move through the
Central Plains and bring the chance for a few showers or isolated
thunderstorm across extreme northeast Kansas and northern Missouri
Tuesday night.
Medium Range (Wednesday - Thursday night):
This will be the active portion of the forecast period with the
potential for stronger storms on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
strong upper level trough will eject out from the Great Basin into
the Central Plains. This will force a cold front into eastern Kansas
on Wednesday. The GFS and EC develop showers and thunderstorms
across the area earlier in the day Wednesday this would provide for
more cloud cover and would limit instability despite strong shear
and adequate moisture to support severe weather. The NAM is a little
slower and does not develop showers and thunderstorms earlier in the
day. This would lead to much stronger instability to go along with
the aforementioned shear and moisture. Consequently, severe
potential will hinge on timing of the system and whether we have
early day showers limiting instability. In any rate, showers and
thunderstorms will affect the CWA Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s however,
Thursday will be much cooler behind the cold front with highs in the
50s. The upper level trough will move through the area on Thursday
bringing the slight chance for showers to the northern CWA.
Extended Range (Friday through Sunday):
The extended range will feature dry weather with a warming trend. By
Friday deep upper level troughing will cover the CONUS east of the
Rockies. This will lead to cool conditions on Friday with highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday, the broad upper level troughing
begins to shift northeast and we experience height rises across the
area raising highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday the upper
level flow becomes more quasi-zonal which allows temperatures to
further warm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with just few-sct high clouds.
Winds will be light this morning increasing out of the south to
10kts later this morning. Winds this evening will back to the SE and
remain around 10kts.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ013>017-
020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
610 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Short Term (Today - Tuesday night):
The main concern in the short term will be the cold temperatures
this morning and any impacts on sensitive vegetation. Temperatures
this morning will bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s most
locations. As such a freeze warning is in place this morning until
9AM. Otherwise, temperatures will begin to warm up quickly this
morning with clear skies, increasing southerly winds and upper level
ridging building into the area. Expect highs to top out in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Expect WAA to increase Monday night into Tuesday
with lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Tuesday in
the 60s to near 70. With warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
strong southerly winds, there may be a elevated fire danger on
Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday into Tuesday night models depict a
weak shortwave ejecting out from a broad upper level trough over the
Great Basin region. This weak shortwave will move through the
Central Plains and bring the chance for a few showers or isolated
thunderstorm across extreme northeast Kansas and northern Missouri
Tuesday night.
Medium Range (Wednesday - Thursday night):
This will be the active portion of the forecast period with the
potential for stronger storms on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
strong upper level trough will eject out from the Great Basin into
the Central Plains. This will force a cold front into eastern Kansas
on Wednesday. The GFS and EC develop showers and thunderstorms
across the area earlier in the day Wednesday this would provide for
more cloud cover and would limit instability despite strong shear
and adequate moisture to support severe weather. The NAM is a little
slower and does not develop showers and thunderstorms earlier in the
day. This would lead to much stronger instability to go along with
the aforementioned shear and moisture. Consequently, severe
potential will hinge on timing of the system and whether we have
early day showers limiting instability. In any rate, showers and
thunderstorms will affect the CWA Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s however,
Thursday will be much cooler behind the cold front with highs in the
50s. The upper level trough will move through the area on Thursday
bringing the slight chance for showers to the northern CWA.
Extended Range (Friday through Sunday):
The extended range will feature dry weather with a warming trend. By
Friday deep upper level troughing will cover the CONUS east of the
Rockies. This will lead to cool conditions on Friday with highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday, the broad upper level troughing
begins to shift northeast and we experience height rises across the
area raising highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday the upper
level flow becomes more quasi-zonal which allows temperatures to
further warm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with just few-sct high clouds.
Winds will be light this morning increasing out of the south to
10kts later this morning. Winds this evening will back to the SE and
remain around 10kts.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ013>017-
020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
323 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Surface ridge will be over region today with sunny skies and light
winds. Despite starting off rather cold, in the upper 20s to upper
30s, temperatures to warm up into the upper 50s to mid 60s by this
afternoon.
Will keep freeze warning/frost advisory going til 9 am.
Byrd
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
(Tonight)
Surface ridge will initially this evening be near or just east of
the Mississippi River and will slowly edge eastward overnight
tonight. Winds will start off light/variable but gradually turn
predominantly southeasterly from west to east and increase in speed.
Another seasonably cool night looks in store for the bi-state
area...though not as cool as 24 hours prior. Expect lows mainly in
the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. Coldest locations should be across
favored spots across the eastern Ozarks where patchy or areas of
frost may develop.
(Tuesday)
Southeasterly return flow around departing ridge will strengthen
during the day on Tuesday. In addition...midlevel ridge axis
amplifies and moves toward mid-Mississippi Valley which should help
lead to slightly warmer high temperatures compared to that expected
of today. High temperatues are expected to be in the 60s to near 70
degrees. Increasing mid/high level cloudiness may help keep
temperatures in check however.
(Wednesday/Wednesday Night)
Next system of interest will affect the region on Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Strengthening low-level warm/moist advection
beneath diffluence and DCPVA aloft should aid in development of
showers and thunderstorms as early as Wednesday morning. Coverage of
showers/storms however should increase with cold front coming in on
Wednesday night. Synoptic setup looks fairly similar to last
Wednesday`s storm. Timing of cold front (as it looks right now)
being late overnight does not look particularly favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms as the instability wanes with nocturnal
cooling. However...strong deep-layer shear combined with UL dynamics
and associated cooling aloft may produce a few strong/severe
thunderstorms across the area with the best chances across northeast
Missouri during the course of the evening hours.
(Thursday - Sunday)
By Thursday morning...cold front should almost be clearing the CWA
with a lingering chance for showers mainly for south-central
Illinois. A mostly cloudy sky along with low-level cold advection
should yield highs on Thursday 5-15 degrees colder compared to
Wednesday.
The rest of the extended looks dry with slightly below normal
temperatures. Cannot rule out a light freeze for portions of the
area on Friday night/Saturday morning if wind speeds are low enough.
As alluded to by dayshift...this next upcoming weekend looks much
warmer than it did 24-48 hours ago with the core of the arctic air
now looking like it will hit the eastern Great Lakes and the
northeastern United States instead of further southwest. As a
result...temperatures should remain near to slightly below normal
but nothing extreme.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
MVFR clouds have cleared out of all the taf sites late this
evening, with complete clearing of all the clouds expected in the
St Louis metro by 06Z late tonight or shortly thereafter as
surface ridge extending from western IA southwest into TX
continues to build eastward into MO. A clear sky for the remainder
of the forecast period with weak west or northwest winds late
tonight and Monday, becoming light by Monday evening as the
surface ridge moves eastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The sky should completely clear out by 06Z
late tonight or shortly thereafter. A west or northwest wind late
tonight and Monday, then a light east or northeast wind Monday
night as the surface ridge shifts east of the area.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 61 41 65 51 / 0 0 0 5
Quincy 59 39 64 46 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 63 41 68 49 / 0 0 0 10
Jefferson City 64 40 67 50 / 0 0 0 5
Salem 59 38 63 46 / 0 0 0 0
Farmington 62 34 64 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby
MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
318 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Short Term (Today - Tuesday night):
The main concern in the short term will be the cold temperatures
this morning and any impacts on sensitive vegetation. Temperatures
this morning will bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s most
locations. As such a freeze warning is in place this morning until
9AM. Otherwise, temperatures will begin to warm up quickly this
morning with clear skies, increasing southerly winds and upper level
ridging building into the area. Expect highs to top out in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Expect WAA to increase Monday night into Tuesday
with lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Tuesday in
the 60s to near 70. With warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
strong southerly winds, there may be a elevated fire danger on
Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday into Tuesday night models depict a
weak shortwave ejecting out from a broad upper level trough over the
Great Basin region. This weak shortwave will move through the
Central Plains and bring the chance for a few showers or isolated
thunderstorm across extreme northeast Kansas and northern Missouri
Tuesday night.
Medium Range (Wednesday - Thursday night):
This will be the active portion of the forecast period with the
potential for stronger storms on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
strong upper level trough will eject out from the Great Basin into
the Central Plains. This will force a cold front into eastern Kansas
on Wednesday. The GFS and EC develop showers and thunderstorms
across the area earlier in the day Wednesday this would provide for
more cloud cover and would limit instability despite strong shear
and adequate moisture to support severe weather. The NAM is a little
slower and does not develop showers and thunderstorms earlier in the
day. This would lead to much stronger instability to go along with
the aforementioned shear and moisture. Consequently, severe
potential will hinge on timing of the system and whether we have
early day showers limiting instability. In any rate, showers and
thunderstorms will affect the CWA Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s however,
Thursday will be much cooler behind the cold front with highs in the
50s. The upper level trough will move through the area on Thursday
bringing the slight chance for showers to the northern CWA.
Extended Range (Friday through Sunday):
The extended range will feature dry weather with a warming trend. By
Friday deep upper level troughing will cover the CONUS east of the
Rockies. This will lead to cool conditions on Friday with highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday, the broad upper level troughing
begins to shift northeast and we experience height rises across the
area raising highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday the upper
level flow becomes more quasi-zonal which allows temperatures to
further warm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Surface high pressure has been settling into the vicinity, allowing
for variable and light to calm winds. VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the TAF period with some upper-level clouds meandering in
overhead toward the end of the period. Look for southerly winds to
pickup a bit after sunrise Monday, becoming more southeasterly by
tomorrow evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ013>017-
020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
316 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Early this morning, skies had cleared across the forecast area as
high pressure settled across the area. Under the clear skies and
light winds, temperatures have dropped into the lower to middle 30s.
After a cold start to the day, the surface high will move off to the
east this afternoon, resulting in a more southerly wind component.
With the dry air in place, and ample sunshine temperatures will
rebound rather quickly back to near seasonal normals in the lower to
middle 60s.
Southerly low level flow, albeit light, will hold temperatures up a
little tonight from this mornings cold readings despite clear
skies. The coldest readings will be across the eastern Ozarks
where lows will drop into the middle 30s, and can not rule out
some patchy frost in some of the low lying areas. Otherwise, upper
30s to lower 40s will be common across the remainder of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Stronger southerly flow establishes itself on Tuesday ahead of
rather vigorous storm system evolving over the inter-mountain
west and High Plains. Despite moisture being advected northward,
winds look to rather strong and relative humidities dropping into
the 25 to 35 percent range leading to elevated fire weather
concerns.
Attention then turns to the evolution of the inter-mountain deep
trough that begins to push out into the Plains. There still
remains some timing issues with the surface features between the
NAM and GFS with the GFS and ECMWF the more progressive of the
model suite. Overall, CAPE/Shear parameters look sufficient to
support a limited to elevated risk of strong to severe storms.
Confidence is medium with regards to this system, but low in
discerning storm mode. Based on position of cold front/dry line
and plume of higher instabilities from current suite of models,
highest risk looks to be west of highway 65 and this is where
current SPC day 3 outlook highlights a slight risk.
The more progressive and preferred solutions would push system
out late Wednesday night with dry, quiet and cooler day for
Thursday into Saturday, with near or just slightly below seasonal
normals. Medium range models indicating upper flow to become
slightly more zonal on Sunday which looks to begin a warming
trend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through Monday
evening. Winds will be light and variable overnight and will
become light out of the south to southeast on Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ058-071-082-
083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>057-
066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Surface high pressure has been settling into the vicinity, allowing
for variable and light to calm winds. VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the TAF period with some upper-level clouds meandering in
overhead toward the end of the period. Look for southerly winds to
pickup a bit after sunrise Monday, becoming more southeasterly by
tomorrow evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for MOZ013>017-020>025-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...lg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Surface high pressure has been settling into the vicinity, allowing
for variable and light to calm winds. VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the TAF period with some upper-level clouds meandering in
overhead toward the end of the period. Look for southerly winds to
pickup a bit after sunrise Monday, becoming more southeasterly by
tomorrow evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for MOZ013>017-020>025-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...lg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Surface high pressure has been settling into the vicinity, allowing
for variable and light to calm winds. VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the TAF period with some upper-level clouds meandering in
overhead toward the end of the period. Look for southerly winds to
pickup a bit after sunrise Monday, becoming more southeasterly by
tomorrow evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for MOZ013>017-020>025-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...lg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1141 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through Monday
evening. Winds will be light and variable overnight and will
become light out of the south to southeast on Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for MOZ058-071-082-083-
096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for MOZ055>057-066>070-
077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Rain has cleared the eastern portion of the CWFA and clouds are
clearing out faster than expected. There is apparently an issue
with the GOES East spacecraft and satellite data has been
interrupted. Using GOES West to estimate the clearing, it should
be through most of the CWFA before sunrise if not all the way
through. With wind dropping off west of the Mississippi and
excellent radiational cooling conditions, expect more frost
further further east as well. So have gone ahead and expanded the
frost advisory to include all Missouri counties and Calhoun county
in Illinois.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
MVFR clouds have cleared out of all the taf sites late this
evening, with complete clearing of all the clouds expected in the
St Louis metro by 06Z late tonight or shortly thereafter as
surface ridge extending from western IA southwest into TX
continues to build eastward into MO. A clear sky for the remainder
of the forecast period with weak west or northwest winds late
tonight and Monday, becoming light by Monday evening as the
surface ridge moves eastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The sky should completely clear out by 06Z
late tonight or shortly thereafter. A west or northwest wind late
tonight and Monday, then a light east or northeast wind Monday
night as the surface ridge shifts east of the area.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint
Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Rain has cleared the eastern portion of the CWFA and clouds are
clearing out faster than expected. There is apparently an issue
with the GOES East spacecraft and satellite data has been
interrupted. Using GOES West to estimate the clearing, it should
be through most of the CWFA before sunrise if not all the way
through. With wind dropping off west of the Mississippi and
excellent radiational cooling conditions, expect more frost
further further east as well. So have gone ahead and expanded the
frost advisory to include all Missouri counties and Calhoun county
in Illinois.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
MVFR clouds have cleared out of all the taf sites late this
evening, with complete clearing of all the clouds expected in the
St Louis metro by 06Z late tonight or shortly thereafter as
surface ridge extending from western IA southwest into TX
continues to build eastward into MO. A clear sky for the remainder
of the forecast period with weak west or northwest winds late
tonight and Monday, becoming light by Monday evening as the
surface ridge moves eastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The sky should completely clear out by 06Z
late tonight or shortly thereafter. A west or northwest wind late
tonight and Monday, then a light east or northeast wind Monday
night as the surface ridge shifts east of the area.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint
Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1005 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Rain has cleared the eastern portion of the CWFA and clouds are
clearing out faster than expected. There is apparently an issue
with the GOES East spacecraft and satellite data has been
interrupted. Using GOES West to estimate the clearing, it should
be through most of the CWFA before sunrise if not all the way
through. With wind dropping off west of the Mississippi and
excellent radiational cooling conditions, expect more frost
further further east as well. So have gone ahead and expanded the
frost advisory to include all Missouri counties and Calhoun county
in Illinois.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Cold front extending from a surface low over IN southwest through
eastern AR will move eastward, while a surface ridge extending
from eastern Nebraska south into TX shifts eastward into MO behind
the cold front. The post frontal showers should be east of the taf
sites by 00Z this evening. Low level clouds around 1000-2000 feet
in height should advect east of COU shortly after 00Z this
evening, then east of UIN and the St Louis metro area around 03Z
this evening. Gusty northwesterly winds in the St Louis metro area
will diminish this evening as the surface pressure gradient
relaxes. A clear sky for late tonigt and Monday with weak winds as
the surface ridge moves eastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The showers should be east of STL by 00Z this
evening with MVFR cigs continuing until around 03Z this evening.
Gusty northwesterly surface wind will diminish through the night,
becoming light late tonight/early Monday morning. A clear sky and
weak wind can be expected from late tonight through the remainder
of the forecast period.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint
Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
621 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period with
northwesterly winds this evening becoming light and variable
overnight. By Monday morning, southerly winds will return with
perhaps a few high-level clouds streaming through.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...lg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Back edge of the upper level system is currently traversing the
area. Clouds have scattered at KJLN and should break up by 02z at
KSGF/KBBG. Once clouds exit the area...expect VFR conditions
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will diminish
after sunset and remain light and variable overnight gradually
backing around to a south to southeasterly direction by 14-18z on
Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Back edge of the upper level system is currently traversing the
area. Clouds have scattered at KJLN and should break up by 02z at
KSGF/KBBG. Once clouds exit the area...expect VFR conditions
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will diminish
after sunset and remain light and variable overnight gradually
backing around to a south to southeasterly direction by 14-18z on
Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Back edge of the upper level system is currently traversing the
area. Clouds have scattered at KJLN and should break up by 02z at
KSGF/KBBG. Once clouds exit the area...expect VFR conditions
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will diminish
after sunset and remain light and variable overnight gradually
backing around to a south to southeasterly direction by 14-18z on
Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Back edge of the upper level system is currently traversing the
area. Clouds have scattered at KJLN and should break up by 02z at
KSGF/KBBG. Once clouds exit the area...expect VFR conditions
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will diminish
after sunset and remain light and variable overnight gradually
backing around to a south to southeasterly direction by 14-18z on
Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Back edge of the upper level system is currently traversing the
area. Clouds have scattered at KJLN and should break up by 02z at
KSGF/KBBG. Once clouds exit the area...expect VFR conditions
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will diminish
after sunset and remain light and variable overnight gradually
backing around to a south to southeasterly direction by 14-18z on
Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
602 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Cold front extending from a surface low over IN southwest through
eastern AR will move eastward, while a surface ridge extending
from eastern Nebraska south into TX shifts eastward into MO behind
the cold front. The post frontal showers should be east of the taf
sites by 00Z this evening. Low level clouds around 1000-2000 feet
in height should advect east of COU shortly after 00Z this
evening, then east of UIN and the St Louis metro area around 03Z
this evening. Gusty northwesterly winds in the St Louis metro area
will diminish this evening as the surface pressure gradient
relaxes. A clear sky for late tonigt and Monday with weak winds as
the surface ridge moves eastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The showers should be east of STL by 00Z this
evening with MVFR cigs continuing until around 03Z this evening.
Gusty northwesterly surface wind will diminish through the night,
becoming light late tonight/early Monday morning. A clear sky and
weak wind can be expected from late tonight through the remainder
of the forecast period.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
343 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A cold front moved through the terminals
earlier today, and a band of rain had developed behind the front.
This band of rain with MVFR cigs will continue to affect KCOU and
KUIN for the first few hours of the TAF period. Cigs may
occasionally dip into IFR. A gradual improvement is then expected
over the next several hours with VFR conditions prevailing
overnight. An area of high pressure will approach the terminals
overnight, leading to a decrease in wind speeds.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A cold front was located near the
St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, and a band of rain
had developed behind the front. As the cold front progresses
southeastward this afternoon, the post-frontal band of rain will
also progress southeastward, bringing a period of rain and MVFR
cigs to the terminals during the afternoon. Brief periods of IFR
cigs are possible. Any thunderstorms which develop this afternoon
ahead of the front should remain south and east of the St. Louis
metro area terminals. Expect improvement to VFR during the evening
and overnight hours.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
343 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A cold front moved through the terminals
earlier today, and a band of rain had developed behind the front.
This band of rain with MVFR cigs will continue to affect KCOU and
KUIN for the first few hours of the TAF period. Cigs may
occasionally dip into IFR. A gradual improvement is then expected
over the next several hours with VFR conditions prevailing
overnight. An area of high pressure will approach the terminals
overnight, leading to a decrease in wind speeds.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A cold front was located near the
St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, and a band of rain
had developed behind the front. As the cold front progresses
southeastward this afternoon, the post-frontal band of rain will
also progress southeastward, bringing a period of rain and MVFR
cigs to the terminals during the afternoon. Brief periods of IFR
cigs are possible. Any thunderstorms which develop this afternoon
ahead of the front should remain south and east of the St. Louis
metro area terminals. Expect improvement to VFR during the evening
and overnight hours.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
343 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A cold front moved through the terminals
earlier today, and a band of rain had developed behind the front.
This band of rain with MVFR cigs will continue to affect KCOU and
KUIN for the first few hours of the TAF period. Cigs may
occasionally dip into IFR. A gradual improvement is then expected
over the next several hours with VFR conditions prevailing
overnight. An area of high pressure will approach the terminals
overnight, leading to a decrease in wind speeds.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A cold front was located near the
St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, and a band of rain
had developed behind the front. As the cold front progresses
southeastward this afternoon, the post-frontal band of rain will
also progress southeastward, bringing a period of rain and MVFR
cigs to the terminals during the afternoon. Brief periods of IFR
cigs are possible. Any thunderstorms which develop this afternoon
ahead of the front should remain south and east of the St. Louis
metro area terminals. Expect improvement to VFR during the evening
and overnight hours.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
137 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tight, clear
skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures after
midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas along
and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details, forcing, shear, and instability will
lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to mentioned an
elevated risk for severe weather, and include a mention of large
hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: A cold front tracked through the
area earlier this morning. Behind the front a low level stratus
deck with IFR ceilings is spreading across the area. This system
is quickly spreading east this afternoon and the clearing line is
currently pushing across extreme southeastern Kansas early this
afternoon, and will clear from west to east by early this evening.
Under the stratus deck some patchy drizzle may occur at times.
Winds will be out of the north to northwest this afternoon and
become light and variable this evening into Monday morning as high
pressure moves over the region. Temperatures will drop into the
upper 20s to the lower 30s tonight with areas of frost expected to
develop early Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
137 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tight, clear
skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures after
midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas along
and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details, forcing, shear, and instability will
lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to mentioned an
elevated risk for severe weather, and include a mention of large
hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: A cold front tracked through the
area earlier this morning. Behind the front a low level stratus
deck with IFR ceilings is spreading across the area. This system
is quickly spreading east this afternoon and the clearing line is
currently pushing across extreme southeastern Kansas early this
afternoon, and will clear from west to east by early this evening.
Under the stratus deck some patchy drizzle may occur at times.
Winds will be out of the north to northwest this afternoon and
become light and variable this evening into Monday morning as high
pressure moves over the region. Temperatures will drop into the
upper 20s to the lower 30s tonight with areas of frost expected to
develop early Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1254 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of frontogenetically-driven rain will slowly slide
southeastward through the early morning hours reaching portions of
central and northeastern Missouri by mid/late morning and to the St.
Louis metro area by early afternoon. The timing of this area of
rain is several hours slower than previous forecast due to slower
fropa through the CWA.
The slower passage of the cold front will also allow temperatures to
warmup more than previously expected with a tight temperature
gradient from northwest to southeast. Across northwestern sections
of the area...highs will only be in the 40s due to copious amounts
of cloud cover and rainfall. However...for portions of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois...am expecting highs to near 70
degrees as fropa is not expected there until late afternoon. For
these areas...enough instability will likely materialize for
isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Could be an isolated strong/severe storm or two but
better chances further southeast of CWA.
Will be a lingering threat of light rain for portions of south-
central Illinois early this evening but conditions should quickly
dry out. Cloud cover will decrease overnight tonight as well.
Combine that with winds diminishing with approach of sfc
ridge...could be a good setup for radiational cooling and frost
development late tonight. Forecast lows tonight generally west of
the Mississippi River are expected to be in the 30-35 degree range
so a light freeze is possible. Will hold off on any headlines for
now and let dayshift decipher which (if any) frost/freeze headlines
are warranted. Timing of clearing skies and sfc ridge will be the
key factors.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Surface ridge will be over region Monday with dry and warmer
weather for the first part of the work week. By Tuesday surface
ridge will be to our east, so winds will be out of the south with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, low level moisture will be on the increase ahead of
next weather system. So showers and a few thunderstorms to develop
and spread northward across the area on Wednesday. The best chances
of precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening as
strong cold front slides through region. Some differences in timing
among the extended models, so kept low chance mention through
Thursday, before tapering off.
As for temperatures, Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Then colder air to filter in with highs
near normal by Friday, in the 50s.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A cold front moved through the terminals
earlier today, and a band of rain had developed behind the front.
This band of rain with MVFR cigs will continue to affect KCOU and
KUIN for the first few hours of the TAF period. Cigs may
occasionally dip into IFR. A gradual improvement is then expected
over the next several hours with VFR conditions prevailing
overnight. An area of high pressure will approach the terminals
overnight, leading to a decrease in wind speeds.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A cold front was located near the
St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, and a band of rain
had developed behind the front. As the cold front progresses
southeastward this afternoon, the post-frontal band of rain will
also progress southeastward, bringing a period of rain and MVFR
cigs to the terminals during the afternoon. Brief periods of IFR
cigs are possible. Any thunderstorms which develop this afternoon
ahead of the front should remain south and east of the St. Louis
metro area terminals. Expect improvement to VFR during the evening
and overnight hours.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1241 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
...Update to Aviation Discussion for the 18Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s this
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will end
the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out the
details, but something to keep an eye on. Overall confidence is
medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: A cold front tracked through the
area earlier this morning. Behind the front a low level stratus
deck with IFR ceilings is spreading across the area. This system
is quickly spreading east this afternoon and the clearing line is
currently pushing across extreme southeastern Kansas early this
afternoon, and will clear from west to east by early this evening.
Under the stratus deck some patchy drizzle may occur at times.
Winds will be out of the north to northwest this afternoon and
become light and variable this evening into Monday morning as high
pressure moves over the region. Temperatures will drop into the
upper 20s to the lower 30s tonight with areas of frost expected to
develop early Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s this
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will end
the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out the
details, but something to keep an eye on. Overall confidence is
medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A surface cold front just recently
moved through the taf sites over the last few hours. A post
frontal disturbance moving northeast through eastern KS will
lower ceilings, especially at KJLN (already low end MVFR) and KSGF
with increasing chances for rain. Somewhat lower ceilings at KBBG
will occur as well but with lesser sustained rain chances.
Moderately gusty northwest winds are also expected. As the
disturbance pulls away expected a clearing sky with diminishing
winds after 21z.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A surface cold front just recently
moved through the taf sites over the last few hours. A post
frontal disturbance moving northeast through eastern KS will
lower ceilings, especially at KJLN (already low end MVFR) and KSGF
with increasing chances for rain. Somewhat lower ceilings at KBBG
will occur as well but with lesser sustained rain chances.
Moderately gusty northwest winds are also expected. As the
disturbance pulls away expected a clearing sky with diminishing
winds after 21z.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A surface cold front just recently
moved through the taf sites over the last few hours. A post
frontal disturbance moving northeast through eastern KS will
lower ceilings, especially at KJLN (already low end MVFR) and KSGF
with increasing chances for rain. Somewhat lower ceilings at KBBG
will occur as well but with lesser sustained rain chances.
Moderately gusty northwest winds are also expected. As the
disturbance pulls away expected a clearing sky with diminishing
winds after 21z.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A surface cold front just recently
moved through the taf sites over the last few hours. A post
frontal disturbance moving northeast through eastern KS will
lower ceilings, especially at KJLN (already low end MVFR) and KSGF
with increasing chances for rain. Somewhat lower ceilings at KBBG
will occur as well but with lesser sustained rain chances.
Moderately gusty northwest winds are also expected. As the
disturbance pulls away expected a clearing sky with diminishing
winds after 21z.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A band of rain and snow is currently positioned across the area.
Temperatures have been hovering in the low to mid 30s making
precip type difficult to nail down. Several terminals have seen a
quick burst of snow with others just experiencing light rain. This
band of precip will hang around several more hours before clearing
from west to east by late morning. Heavier precip should drop off by
15Z with light precip possible thru 17Z. Skies begin to clear by mid
afternoon as the system moves eastward out of the region. Winds will
remain generally out of the northwest near 12kts or lighter thru the
period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A band of rain and snow is currently positioned across the area.
Temperatures have been hovering in the low to mid 30s making
precip type difficult to nail down. Several terminals have seen a
quick burst of snow with others just experiencing light rain. This
band of precip will hang around several more hours before clearing
from west to east by late morning. Heavier precip should drop off by
15Z with light precip possible thru 17Z. Skies begin to clear by mid
afternoon as the system moves eastward out of the region. Winds will
remain generally out of the northwest near 12kts or lighter thru the
period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of frontogenetically-driven rain will slowly slide
southeastward through the early morning hours reaching portions of
central and northeastern Missouri by mid/late morning and to the St.
Louis metro area by early afternoon. The timing of this area of
rain is several hours slower than previous forecast due to slower
fropa through the CWA.
The slower passage of the cold front will also allow temperatures to
warmup more than previously expected with a tight temperature
gradient from northwest to southeast. Across northwestern sections
of the area...highs will only be in the 40s due to copious amounts
of cloud cover and rainfall. However...for portions of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois...am expecting highs to near 70
degrees as fropa is not expected there until late afternoon. For
these areas...enough instability will likely materialize for
isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Could be an isolated strong/severe storm or two but
better chances further southeast of CWA.
Will be a lingering threat of light rain for portions of south-
central Illinois early this evening but conditions should quickly
dry out. Cloud cover will decrease overnight tonight as well.
Combine that with winds diminishing with approach of sfc
ridge...could be a good setup for radiational cooling and frost
development late tonight. Forecast lows tonight generally west of
the Mississippi River are expected to be in the 30-35 degree range
so a light freeze is possible. Will hold off on any headlines for
now and let dayshift decipher which (if any) frost/freeze headlines
are warranted. Timing of clearing skies and sfc ridge will be the
key factors.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Surface ridge will be over region Monday with dry and warmer
weather for the first part of the work week. By Tuesday surface
ridge will be to our east, so winds will be out of the south with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, low level moisture will be on the increase ahead of
next weather system. So showers and a few thunderstorms to develop
and spread northward across the area on Wednesday. The best chances
of precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening as
strong cold front slides through region. Some differences in timing
among the extended models, so kept low chance mention through
Thursday, before tapering off.
As for temperatures, Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Then colder air to filter in with highs
near normal by Friday, in the 50s.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of rain should slowly slide eastward toward KCOU/KUIN by late
this morning and St. Louis metro terminals by mid afternoon.
Ceilings will also lower to at least low MVFR along with MVFR
visibilities. IFR ceilings are also possible but most likely this
morning at KCOU and to a lesser degree KUIN. Winds will stay out
of the NW through the period at KCOU and KUIN behind the cold
front and should swing to the NW at the metro terminals by early
afternoon. Rain chances will be east of the terminals by late this
afternoon with improving conditions. For tonight...skies should
clear from west to east.
Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front should move through by early afternoon with light rain
moving in from the west shortly thereafter. Period of about 3
hours of rain along with MVFR visibilities/ceilings. Conditions
will improve by evening after the rain moves out of the area.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 66 39 62 42 / 90 5 0 0
Quincy 47 31 60 40 / 90 5 0 0
Columbia 46 31 64 41 / 80 5 0 0
Jefferson City 48 31 65 40 / 90 5 0 0
Salem 70 39 60 40 / 60 20 0 0
Farmington 65 35 62 38 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of frontogenetically-driven rain will slowly slide
southeastward through the early morning hours reaching portions of
central and northeastern Missouri by mid/late morning and to the St.
Louis metro area by early afternoon. The timing of this area of
rain is several hours slower than previous forecast due to slower
fropa through the CWA.
The slower passage of the cold front will also allow temperatures to
warmup more than previously expected with a tight temperature
gradient from northwest to southeast. Across northwestern sections
of the area...highs will only be in the 40s due to copious amounts
of cloud cover and rainfall. However...for portions of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois...am expecting highs to near 70
degrees as fropa is not expected there until late afternoon. For
these areas...enough instability will likely materialize for
isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Could be an isolated strong/severe storm or two but
better chances further southeast of CWA.
Will be a lingering threat of light rain for portions of south-
central Illinois early this evening but conditions should quickly
dry out. Cloud cover will decrease overnight tonight as well.
Combine that with winds diminishing with approach of sfc
ridge...could be a good setup for radiational cooling and frost
development late tonight. Forecast lows tonight generally west of
the Mississippi River are expected to be in the 30-35 degree range
so a light freeze is possible. Will hold off on any headlines for
now and let dayshift decipher which (if any) frost/freeze headlines
are warranted. Timing of clearing skies and sfc ridge will be the
key factors.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Surface ridge will be over region Monday with dry and warmer
weather for the first part of the work week. By Tuesday surface
ridge will be to our east, so winds will be out of the south with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, low level moisture will be on the increase ahead of
next weather system. So showers and a few thunderstorms to develop
and spread northward across the area on Wednesday. The best chances
of precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening as
strong cold front slides through region. Some differences in timing
among the extended models, so kept low chance mention through
Thursday, before tapering off.
As for temperatures, Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Then colder air to filter in with highs
near normal by Friday, in the 50s.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of rain should slowly slide eastward toward KCOU/KUIN by late
this morning and St. Louis metro terminals by mid afternoon.
Ceilings will also lower to at least low MVFR along with MVFR
visibilities. IFR ceilings are also possible but most likely this
morning at KCOU and to a lesser degree KUIN. Winds will stay out
of the NW through the period at KCOU and KUIN behind the cold
front and should swing to the NW at the metro terminals by early
afternoon. Rain chances will be east of the terminals by late this
afternoon with improving conditions. For tonight...skies should
clear from west to east.
Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front should move through by early afternoon with light rain
moving in from the west shortly thereafter. Period of about 3
hours of rain along with MVFR visibilities/ceilings. Conditions
will improve by evening after the rain moves out of the area.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 66 39 62 42 / 90 5 0 0
Quincy 47 31 60 40 / 90 5 0 0
Columbia 46 31 64 41 / 80 5 0 0
Jefferson City 48 31 65 40 / 90 5 0 0
Salem 70 39 60 40 / 60 20 0 0
Farmington 65 35 62 38 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
433 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
433 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
433 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
331 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of frontogenetically-driven rain will slowly slide
southeastward through the early morning hours reaching portions of
central and northeastern Missouri by mid/late morning and to the St.
Louis metro area by early afternoon. The timing of this area of
rain is several hours slower than previous forecast due to slower
fropa through the CWA.
The slower passage of the cold front will also allow temperatures to
warmup more than previously expected with a tight temperature
gradient from northwest to southeast. Across northwestern sections
of the area...highs will only be in the 40s due to copious amounts
of cloud cover and rainfall. However...for portions of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois...am expecting highs to near 70
degrees as fropa is not expected there until late afternoon. For
these areas...enough instability will likely materialize for
isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Could be an isolated strong/severe storm or two but
better chances further southeast of CWA.
Will be a lingering threat of light rain for portions of south-
central Illinois early this evening but conditions should quickly
dry out. Cloud cover will decrease overnight tonight as well.
Combine that with winds diminishing with approach of sfc
ridge...could be a good setup for radiational cooling and frost
development late tonight. Forecast lows tonight generally west of
the Mississippi River are expected to be in the 30-35 degree range
so a light freeze is possible. Will hold off on any headlines for
now and let dayshift decipher which (if any) frost/freeze headlines
are warranted. Timing of clearing skies and sfc ridge will be the
key factors.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Surface ridge will be over region Monday with dry and warmer
weather for the first part of the work week. By Tuesday surface
ridge will be to our east, so winds will be out of the south with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, low level moisture will be on the increase ahead of
next weather system. So showers and a few thunderstorms to develop
and spread northward across the area on Wednesday. The best chances
of precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening as
strong cold front slides through region. Some differences in timing
among the extended models, so kept low chance mention through
Thursday, before tapering off.
As for temperatures, Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Then colder air to filter in with highs
near normal by Friday, in the 50s.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
A cold front extending from a surface low over northwestern IA
south to near COU, then southwest through JLN will move slowly
southeastward through the taf sites late tonight and Sunday.
Showers are expected to move into UIN and COU Sunday morning and
into the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon ahead of an upper
level disturbance which will move east-northeastward through MO
Sunday afternoon and induce a weak surface wave along the cold
front. Low level clouds will advect into UIN and COU late tonight
and into the St Louis metro area Sunday morning. The ceiling
height will drop to around 1000-2000 feet in UIN and COU Sunday
morning and in the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon. Sely
surface wind will veer around to a nwly direction late tonight
in UIN as they have already in COU, and in the St Louis metro
area late Sunday morning after fropa. The showers will shift east
of the taf sites by early Sunday evening with cloud ceiling rising
to VFR conditions Sunday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds will advect into the STL area
Sunday morning, then the cloud ceiling will lower to around
1000-2000 feet Sunday afternoon with showers as well Sunday
afternoon. The cloud ceiling will rise back into the VFR category
Sunday evening. Sely surface wind will veer around to a nwly
direction late Sunday morning after fropa.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 65 39 62 42 / 90 5 0 0
Quincy 47 31 60 40 / 90 5 0 0
Columbia 46 31 64 41 / 90 5 0 0
Jefferson City 47 31 65 40 / 90 5 0 0
Salem 69 39 60 40 / 60 20 0 0
Farmington 63 35 62 38 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A quick moving storm system will bring lowering ceilings to the
region late tonight and Sunday morning. MVFR is very likely with
some scattered IFR potential. The best potential for IFR will be
around Joplin and Springfield. A band of rain showers will also
push through the area with a reduction to MVFR possible. Skies
will then quickly clear in the afternoon with VFR returning by
late afternoon.
Winds will be somewhat brisk and gusty out of the northwest on
Sunday but will quickly diminish by evening.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A quick moving storm system will bring lowering ceilings to the
region late tonight and Sunday morning. MVFR is very likely with
some scattered IFR potential. The best potential for IFR will be
around Joplin and Springfield. A band of rain showers will also
push through the area with a reduction to MVFR possible. Skies
will then quickly clear in the afternoon with VFR returning by
late afternoon.
Winds will be somewhat brisk and gusty out of the northwest on
Sunday but will quickly diminish by evening.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
It was another nice day across southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Under a mix of sun and clouds, temperatures warmed into
the 60s.
A cold front was positioned across the Kansas Flint Hills. This
feature will approach the region, and force a chilly rainfall
along and north of this feature late tonight and into Sunday.
Most locations on Sunday will experience measurable precipitation.
Although, this episode of rain will be short-lived. A speed max
located over northern New Mexico will drive this rain east of the
Ozarks by Sunday evening.
With skies clearing and winds becoming light and variable,
temperatures Sunday night will fall below freezing in many areas.
The eastern Ozarks may stay above freezing.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
A warming trend is expected Monday through Wednesday as an upper
level ridge of high pressure translates across the nations mid
section.
Temperatures by Tuesday afternoon will be well into the 70s.
Tuesday will be a fantastic day for outdoor activities.
Meanwhile, an intense storm system will be brewing out to the
west. This will pull Gulf moisture into the Ozarks, and set the
stage for an episode of severe storms during the day on Wednesday.
Regarding Wednesday, both the GFS and ECMWF have been consistent
with timing thunderstorm development during the daytime, which
would allow for more destabilization. Shear looks pretty strong
with this system.
Given this cape - shear signal, we will begin to mention an
expectation for severe thunderstorms.
After Wednesday we will need to watch for the risk of cold air and
freeze possibilities.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A quick moving storm system will bring lowering ceilings to the
region late tonight and Sunday morning. MVFR is very likely with
some scattered IFR potential. The best potential for IFR will be
around Joplin and Springfield. A band of rain showers will also
push through the area with a reduction to MVFR possible. Skies
will then quickly clear in the afternoon with VFR returning by
late afternoon.
Winds will be somewhat brisk and gusty out of the northwest on
Sunday but will quickly diminish by evening.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 405 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
Leading shortwave trough, that brought rain this morning into the
early afternoon, is quickly moving to our northeast taking the
lingering rain with it. However, for tonight and Sunday we will be
watching another shortwave trough, currently swinging through
Colorado, as it moves through the Southern and Central Plains on its
way east up the Ohio River Valley late Sunday. Model runs continue
to advertise another decent round of light to moderate rain with the
secondary trough, though complicating the issue is the cold air
surging south behind a cold front that the leading shortwave trough
is pushing through the forecast region today. This will provide an
opportunity for some snow sunday morning.
For Tonight and Sunday...light rain associated with a passing
shortwave is exiting the area this afternoon, and with a little
clearing of the clouds across central and northeast Missouri,
temperatures have responded in those areas by jumping into the 60s
ahead of a weak cold front, that is currently starting to sweep
across Missouri. The slight clearing behind the cold front will give
us a break in activity, but we still expect the secondary trough to
induce more lift as the axis swings across the Plains tonight. Model
runs continue to limit the precipitation shield to areas broadly
around and south of I-35 as that is where the better upper level
dynamics are. As mentioned, the dropping temperatures overnight will
complicate issues as precipitation type will likely come into play.
Model sounds indicate there is a window for some snow as the air
column cools and the precipitation develops across the eastern
Kansas and far western Missouri. However, models seem a little
aggressive with the snow and advertised accumulations given surface
temperatures that are expected to remain above freezing through the
event. But, given the temperature regime we will be in, expect a mix
of precipitation types early through mid Sunday morning. Will limit
the mention of precipitation types to rain or snow, but concede that
some reports of sleet might work in early Sunday morning. Otherwise,
there is a very small chance that some of the snow will stick to
grassy areas during the cool morning hours, but any snow that does
fall wont amount to much and will quickly melt. Ultimately, this all
boils down to a cool wet forecast for Sunday morning.
Monday into the work week...conditions will begin to rebound with a
return of warmer Spring temperatures as a large West Coast trough
forces a shortwave ridge across the Plains through mid-week.
However, that West Coast trough, and another in the northern stream,
will eventually eject through the Plains Tuesday through Thursday,
likely resulting in a large storm event across the region with severe
thunderstorms possible. This will leave temperatures in the 60s and
70s Monday through Wednesday, dropping back into the 50s Thursday on
as cool air sweeps in behind the mid-work-week storm system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1119 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
Made some updates to PoPs for the rest of the night...primarily
out over central and northeast Missouri to match up better with
latest short-range guidance. Up until the 01Z run, the RAP was
printing out some light QPF in those areas in the warm advection
ahead of the cold front...but this latest run has dried up. HRRR
still develops a few sprinkles as does the new NAM. Have kept some
low chance/slight chance PoPs for this evening over central and
northeast Missouri, but did end up pairing it back from what the
day shift gave me. Gradually ramped up PoPs after 06Z tonight toward
likely by 11-12Z.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
Early afternoon water vapor imagery depicted one shortwave lifting
away from the region and another shortwave lurking upstream, leading
to an expectation of continued benign conditions through the evening
hours. The upstream shortwave will push a cold front into the region
overnight and tomorrow. The timing and placement of large-scale
ascent, moisture, and frontogenetical forcing suggests that the
majority of pcpn should be post-frontal. This means that an area of
rain should develop and move into the western CWA either late
tonight or early tomorrow morning, depending on how quickly the cold
front progresses southeastward. A few models depicted an elongated
area of weak H85-H7 moisture convergence stretching into the CWA
after 09z, but elevated thunderstorms seem unlikely attm given the
low values of MUCAPE.
Overnight lows should be warmer than last night due to a warmer
start to the day, increasing clouds overnight, and persistent
southeasterly to southerly flow ahead of the front.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Still looks like Sunday will be wet as trough now over the central
High Plains will move east into the western Missouri by midday
tomorrow. Low level moisture convergence will increase under the
mid level ascent across central and northeast Missouri early
tomorrow morning that will spread east across the area during the
day. Have increased to categorical PoPs given the strength of the
forcing. Still looks like the speed the the trough will cause the
rain showers to move out of the area by early evening.
Then a ridge will build into the area quickly behind the trough
allowing Monday and Tuesday to be dry. Will need to watch for
frost on Monday night where temperatures drop into the lower to
mid 30s and skies will be clear with light winds. Temperatures
will climb back above normal by Tuesday as winds turn back out of
the south.
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Models have not shown much change from yesterday with a deep upper
low over the western CONUS early on Wednesday and an upper ridge
to the east. Still looks like there will be a chance of showers
and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Wednesday night as both models
are showing some amount of CAPE ahead of the cold front. The GFS
is quicker to move an upper trough that is the result of the
phasing of the northern part of the aforementioned upper low and a
trough moving southeast out of Canada across our area on Thursday.
This contrasts with the ECMWF which does not show as much phasing
and lets the Canadian trough move eastward. The GFS has it`s
attendant cold front pass through the CWA on Wednesday night
whereas the ECMWF is about 12 hours slower; it passes through on
Thursday morning. Consequently the ECMWF would allow precipitation
to linger over the area longer on Thursday compared to the GFS
which would be dry. Will hold onto the rain chances into Thursday
per the ECMWF because of this before going dry on Friday and
Saturday when a surface ridge will move into the area.
Temperatures on Wednesday still look above normal with 850mb
temperatures around +10C, but then should fall back near or below
normal behind the cold front.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
A cold front extending from a surface low over northwestern IA
south to near COU, then southwest through JLN will move slowly
southeastward through the taf sites late tonight and Sunday.
Showers are expected to move into UIN and COU Sunday morning and
into the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon ahead of an upper
level disturbance which will move east-northeastward through MO
Sunday afternoon and induce a weak surface wave along the cold
front. Low level clouds will advect into UIN and COU late tonight
and into the St Louis metro area Sunday morning. The ceiling
height will drop to around 1000-2000 feet in UIN and COU Sunday
morning and in the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon. Sely
surface wind will veer around to a nwly direction late tonight
in UIN as they have already in COU, and in the St Louis metro
area late Sunday morning after fropa. The showers will shift east
of the taf sites by early Sunday evening with cloud ceiling rising
to VFR conditions Sunday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds will advect into the STL area
Sunday morning, then the cloud ceiling will lower to around
1000-2000 feet Sunday afternoon with showers as well Sunday
afternoon. The cloud ceiling will rise back into the VFR catagory
Sunday evening. Sely surface wind will veer around to a nwly
direction late Sunday morning after fropa.
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
830 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO
AREAS FROM LAS VEGAS NORTHWARD TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN SLOWLY PULL AWAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...STILL ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT PEAKING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 50 MPH LIKELY...WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTS EXCEEDING 65 MPH. BLOWING DUST ALREADY PROBLEMATIC THIS
MORNING WITH HENDERSON AIRPORT REPORTING 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT THIS
HOUR. NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
-OUTLER-
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A LARGE...COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY. NOT
MUCH CHANCE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE MAIN NOTABLE
CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS UPGRADING THE WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK. THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS A HAIR NORTH WITH THE
LATEST RUNS...AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PARK. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IS ALSO
LIKELY TODAY...AND REMAINS NOTED IN THE FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN...AND A MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ADDED TO PORTIONS OF
LINCOLN...NYE AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...HOWEVER NORTHERLY BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
TUESDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
RIDGES.TEMPERAURES WILL PLUNGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...CAUSING SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO 4-5K FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE SHOWERY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS ACROSS ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LATE AND
SHOWERY NATURE I DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTFUL
ACCUMULATION...MAINLY A TRACE TO 1-2 INCHES.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING A SLOW CLIMB AND WINDS MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN NATURE.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED EARLY
WEEK WEATHER WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE REGION AND A SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO. OPERATIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING ONLY MEAGER MOISTURE
PROFILES AT BEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST AREAS OF MOISTURE
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...VARIABLE
CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH EXITS THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
CONTINUED RAPID INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE ON HOW QUICK WE WILL WARM
UP...FORECAST HIGHS BY THE WEEKEND ARE GENERALLY 15-20 DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO FORECAST HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
OUR OVERALL PATTERN AND RESULTANT WEATHER AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT ON TAP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING AS MAJORITY OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND
WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, WINDS PEAK IN INTENSITY BETWEEN 21Z-04Z. POCKETS OF
SEVERE TURBULENCE CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A MAJOR WIND EVENT WILL STRIKE THE REGION TODAY
RESULTING IN POCKETS OF SEVERE TURBULENCE AND BLOWING DUST AND SAND.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG A BELT FROM RIDGECREST TO ELY AND
POINTS EAST. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 50KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF
THE REGION TODAY AND SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS...REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY...OR DAMAGE ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM....PULLIN
AVIATION.....PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
619 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
Band of moderate to occasionally heavy snow continues along and
north of the I-80 corridor with the southern edge of the band
sliding ever so slowly south toward Carson City-Dayton. Snow
amounts have been in the 2 to 5 inch range thus far in the heavier
snow bands with gusty north winds resulting in localized blowing
and drifting snow. Latest finer scale HRRR model run indicates
only a very slow drift south and east during the morning hours and
then accelerating southward around 18-20z. There may be occasionalletups
at KTRK-KRNO-KLOL-KCXP, but given the stationary nature of this
system, CIGS/VSBY will remain restricted with MVFR/periods of IFR
continuing through 18z.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
UPDATE...
The band continues to develop near and north of I-80 at this hour.
Latest models keep the band in this vicinity through 8 AM before
it slowly shifts south. Updating to keep most snow accumulation
near and north of I-80 and reducing accumulations near and south
of Highway 50. Also cancelling the advisory for southern Lyon
County as the band will not make it there until late morning. By
then, solar heating will be enough to preclude any road
accumulation. Wallmann
SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue moving through the Sierra and
Western Nevada this morning. Snow showers will occur behind the
front today with the heaviest band expected along I-80 this morning.
The upper low will continue to influence area weather into Wednesday
as it slowly pulls east with scattered showers and cold
temperatures. Mild and dry weather returns for late week.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue moving through the Sierra and
Western Nevada this morning. Snow showers will occur behind the
front today with the heaviest band expected along I-80 this
morning. The upper low will continue to influence area weather
into Wednesday as it slowly pulls east with scattered showers and
cold temperatures. Mild and dry weather returns for late week.
SHORT TERM...
The snow event is getting underway as I write this. The surface
cold front is now along a line from Portola to Palomino Valley and
then almost to Highway 50 in Churchill County. Showers have
developed west of the crest and are moving east along the
boundary. Currently, temps are mild from I-80 southward and around
40-45 degrees, but are in the 30s behind the front. With precip
now moving in along I-80, areas below 5000 feet will start as
rain, but expect it to change to snow north of Highway 50 by 6 AM.
As for the band, the NAM/GFS/HRRR are hitting the I-80 corridor
the hardest. The NAM actually shows close to 1" of water in the
Reno/Sparks North Valleys. This is likely overdone, but 1/2" seems
plausible. With the cold air coming in, this will mostly be snow
and 3-6" of snow seems likely along the I-80 corridor above 4500
feet. Lighter amounts farther south away from this main band.
Roads will be slick this morning near I-80 and also into eastern
Plumas County due to the snow. Be prepared for a longer than
normal commute and the advisories will continue as is.
One thing to note is that the band doesn`t make it to southern
Lyon County until late morning. If this occurs, any snow that
falls will melt on impact, especially on the roads due to the
higher late March sun angle.
As we move into the afternoon, the cold pool moves overhead and
expect snow showers to continue across the area, but little
accumulation due to solar heating. Any lake effect for Pyramid
Lake looks less likely today as models now show the winds being
more Northeast, and also 30+ kts at 700 mb. This is in addition
to the diurnal minimum in LES during the afternoon. Still, plenty
of showers will be around in the instability.
The upper low then only slowly pulls away into Wednesday. A
northeast flow will continue on the backside Tuesday and
Wednesday. Showers look more likely Tuesday as the cold pool
remains close enough. Wednesday the instability is weaker and more
south of I-80 so just have a slight chance of showers there.
Temperatures will slowly moderate from today`s much below average
readings, but remain below normal into Wednesday. Wallmann
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...
Only minor changes were made as the previous forecast thinking is on
track. Temperatures will begin to warm Thursday although northeast
flow aloft will persist for one more day and keep the warmup slow
initially. This will be the poorest day for mixing as surface
warming will not keep up with warming temperatures aloft, resulting
in moderate inversions. Friday, we expect temperatures to jump 7-10
degrees with a better mixing profile.
For the weekend, instability and weak shortwave may be sufficient
for isolated showers (probably not much more) across far northeast
CA and northwest NV. Given the northern track of this shortwave,
showers in the Sierra are unlikely and we have removed the mention
there. Otherwise, it is going to be an unseasonably mild weekend
with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 Sierra valleys and mid
60s to low 70s western NV valleys.
AVIATION...
A cold front moving southward into western NV early this morning
will continue to drop south and allow colder air to settle into the
I-80/Hwy 50 corridors. Meanwhile, instability continues to increase
as upper low drops into the region with band of rain and snow
intensifying near and north of I-80. Some models are indicating some
impressive bands of precipitation developing through 15z and right
now, it appears that zone will be very close to where it is setting
up currently which would have bigger impacts for KTRK-KRNO-KLOL.
Temps and dewpoints are currently too warm for much accumulation
below 5000 feet and this will likely remain the case outside of
heavier bands of precipitation even though we do anticipate a
changeover to all snow during the morning hours. So the key to
getting accumulation on area runways will be location of most
intense snow bands prior to 16z. Light accumulations are already
occurring at KTRK and we will just have to monitor radar trends for
KRNO-KLOL. The band is forecast to slide south into Mono-Mineral
County this afternoon and evening with some light accumulations
possible at KMMH near or after sundown. Right now, due to the timing
of the band (later in the morning) at KTVL-KCXP-KNFL, accumulations
look minimal. There could still be some brief slushy accumulations
if snow showers become sufficiently heavy. But any accumulation
will melt quickly once the snow showers pass.
Otherwise, expect periods of IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBY during snow showers
with terrain obscurement, especially close to the Sierra. Hohmann
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning NVZ003-004.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
618 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRYING TREND BEGINS TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WET
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...A FEW REMAINING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MOVE UP TIMING THAT PRECIP
WILL EXIT THE AREA AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS NOT LONG AFTER
SUNRISE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RADAR LOOPS AND PROJECTIONS SHOW
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE FADING
BY AROUND SUNRISE. AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A LOW CENTER AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING EAST UP THE COAST JUST OFFSHORE
WHILE A COLD FRONT DESCENDS FROM THE NW. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE OFFSHORE
SYSTEM MOVES VERY QUICKLY NE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM BRINGING PRESENT ROUND OF
MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL END THIS MORNING AS
THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NE. THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL PULL MUCH OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE AWAY WITH IT...LEAVING LITTLE FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO WORK WITH LATER ON TODAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT...NOSING IN FROM
THE NW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS COOL AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A
BIT OF A WARMING TREND....TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OUT
WEST WILL LINK UP WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH FROM CANADA AND MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH THIS PATTERN. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE TWO PERIODS OF STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDER. THE FIRST ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WE
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WITH
ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY. CLEARING AND COOLER LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ALONG WITH
IT 850MB TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z... WHILE THERE ARE POCKETS OF CONVECTION ON RADAR
PREDOMINATELY IT IS STRATIFORM RAIN AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL THUNDER...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE COAST OR OFFSHORE NEAR THE LOW`S TRACK. HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN AN
HOUR OR TWO...BASED MAINLY ON THE HRRR MODEL. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BOUNCE AROUND A BIT...BUT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY
IFR/LIFR. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON ANY DENSE FOG...MAINLY BECAUSE
THE WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 5 KTS OR BETTER. THE GFS SHUTS OFF
THE MOISTURE BY 07Z...BUT THINK THIS IS A BIT FAST. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY
AFTER WITH A WEST WIND.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY MAY INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
HAVE DROPPED SCEC HEADLINES WITH THE LATEST ISSUANCE AS OFFSHORE
LOW IS MOVING NE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS...KEEPING
GRADIENT SLACKER THAN EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NE
AS A COLD FRONT DESCENDS FROM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLAGS
FOR THE NEAR TERM...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT
TERM AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN EAST OF
THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED AT 3 TO 5 FT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXTENDED MARINE FORECAST BRINGS RUGGED
CONDITIONS TO ALL WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS THURSDAY WELL INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.
THE SPEEDS DO BACK OFF A LITTLE FRIDAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE FLOW
WEAKENS FURTHER AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT SEAS AND
THEN SOME FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1016 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS EARLY THIS MORNING. COOLER WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. WARMER
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE/FRONT THURSDAY. COOLER AIR OVER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED E OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY
EXITING THE BLUE RIDGE. AS IT CROSSED STRONG GUSTY WINDS WERE
NOTED IN THE N MOUNTAINS WITH UNOFFICIAL OBS AT SNOWSHOE OF GUSTS
TO 65 MPH. IN ITS WAKE AN ABUNDANCE OF STRATUS EXISTS AND WITH
CAA CONTINUING THROUGHOUT TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SEE NO REASON
FOR AND IMPROVING SKY. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. H85 WINDS HOVER IN THE
40 TO 45 KT RANGE AND WITH CAA AIDING IN MOMENTUM TRANSFER...FEEL
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IE ABOVE 3500 FEET...ARE IN STORE FOR 40
TO 50 MPH GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS AS COUNTY WIDE AVERAGE CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE MET FOR A WIND ADVISORY AS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD KEEP
THERE GUSTS BELOW 40 MPH GENERALLY SPEAKING. KEPT POPS TODAY
CONFINED TO THE N MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WITH AN UPTICK THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO BE NEARLY STEADY STATE OVER THE LOWLANDS WITH
THE MOUNTAINS SEEING A BIT OF A FALL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING JUST A BIT BUT REMAINING GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO THIS EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FIRST THING THIS MORNING
BUT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD
DAWN TUE.
IT APPEARS STRATOCU BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE TENACIOUS
TODAY AND EVEN TONIGHT...WITH ABOUT A 100MB THICK MOIST LAYER
TRAPPED BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION. EVEN NOTORIOUSLY LOW MAV IS
ABOVE FREEZING ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...SO WILL NIX
HWO MENTION OF FREEZE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS BEEN STARTED...IN
KY...FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.
PREFERRED THE LOWER RUC FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY UNDER THE
OVERCAST. EVEN WITH BLENDING IN THE LOWEST OF THE GUIDANCE
OPTIONS...THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV...LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES FOR PRECIP
ARRIVAL THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND BRINGS DRY...BUT COOL
CONDITIONS. EVEN THOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ALOFT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. DECIDED TO GO SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN THE ISOLD VALLEYS...WHERE
LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR EAST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH RETURN
FLOW WILL SHOOT OUR TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 70S...FOR ANOTHER
GREAT SPRING DAY. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT THE HEAVIER PRECIP AND CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT...AS EXPLAINED
IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE
WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW
LOW SFC CAPE AND HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.25 INCHES. THESE PARAMETER COULD ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEREFORE...KEPT THUNDER UNDER LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY.
BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT A SECONDARY FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR.
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
BUT FASTER SYSTEM CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
USED THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE WV MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING.
EKN WILL BE THE LAST OF THE SIX AREA TAF SITES THE FRONT CROSSES
EARLY THIS MORNING...IT SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE THROUGH THERE AS OF
12Z. GUSTY W WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM W TO E...AS AS THE
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE OUT BUT MVFR CIGS SETTLE IN. WHILE THERE MAY BE
A FEW VFR HOLES FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING...THESE MVFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...12Z TUE.
GUSTY W TO NW SFC WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO STRONG W FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NW TODAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR CIGS IN MOUNTAINS MAY
VARY...AS MAY TIMING OF MVFR CIGS OTHERWISE. CIGS COULD BREAK UP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL VARY TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS TUE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
643 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS EARLY THIS MORNING. COOLER WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. WARMER
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE/FRONT THURSDAY. COOLER AIR OVER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
RDA STILL OTS.
FCST ON TRACK WITH COLD FRONT NEAR A CKB TO BKW LINE.
PREV DISCN...
RADAR IS OTS AND TECHS WERE BEING CONTACTED.
COLD FRONT WAS BLOWING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTY SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF IT AND GUSTY NW WINDS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT.
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING JUST A BIT BUT REMAINING GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO THIS EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FIRST THING THIS MORNING
BUT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD
DAWN TUE.
IT APPEARS STRATOCU BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE TENACIOUS
TODAY AND EVEN TONIGHT...WITH ABOUT A 100MB THICK MOIST LAYER
TRAPPED BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION. EVEN NOTORIOUSLY LOW MAV IS
ABOVE FREEZING ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...SO WILL NIX
HWO MENTION OF FREEZE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS BEEN STARTED...IN
KY...FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.
PREFERRED THE LOWER RUC FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY UNDER THE
OVERCAST. EVEN WITH BLENDING IN THE LOWEST OF THE GUIDANCE
OPTIONS...THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV...LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES FOR PRECIP
ARRIVAL THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND BRINGS DRY...BUT COOL
CONDITIONS. EVEN THOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ALOFT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. DECIDED TO GO SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN THE ISOLD VALLEYS...WHERE
LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR EAST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH RETURN
FLOW WILL SHOOT OUR TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 70S...FOR ANOTHER
GREAT SPRING DAY. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT THE HEAVIER PRECIP AND CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT...AS EXPLAINED
IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE
WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW
LOW SFC CAPE AND HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.25 INCHES. THESE PARAMETER COULD ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEREFORE...KEPT THUNDER UNDER LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY.
BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT A SECONDARY FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR.
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
BUT FASTER SYSTEM CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
USED THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE WV MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING.
EKN WILL BE THE LAST OF THE SIX AREA TAF SITES THE FRONT CROSSES
EARLY THIS MORNING...IT SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE THROUGH THERE AS OF
12Z. GUSTY W WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM W TO E...AS AS THE
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE OUT BUT MVFR CIGS SETTLE IN. WHILE THERE MAY BE
A FEW VFR HOLES FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING...THESE MVFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...12Z TUE.
GUSTY W TO NW SFC WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO STRONG W FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NW TODAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR CIGS IN MOUNTAINS MAY
VARY...AS MAY TIMING OF MVFR CIGS OTHERWISE. CIGS COULD BREAK UP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL VARY TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS TUE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
634 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
CLOUDS WERE ON THE DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAINLY WEST OF A MEDFORD TO EAGLE RIVER
LINE. THIS CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH SUNRISE...
THEN ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
WHERE SKIES DO CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE...BUT ENOUGH
WIND ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD KEEP IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. LAST RUN OR TWO OF THE GFS DEPICTED SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE HRRR DEPICTED SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
LINCOLN AND ONEIDA COUNTIES AROUND 21-22Z. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATED STEEP LAPSE OF 8C FROM 950 TO 700MB AT RHINELANDER.
BASED ON THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WAS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. DID BUMP UP CLOUD COVER SOME ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
BASED ON THE LAYER CU RULE. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO INCREASE THEM A
LITTLE BIT MORE AS THE CU RULE WOULD SUGGEST SKIES WOULD GO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH.
ANY LINGERING SPRINKLES SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. THE COMBINATION OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOW COVER ACROSS THE
NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET LATER TONIGHT. WENT AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. ON TUESDAY...INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MIDDLE 50S. READINGS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER NEAR THE BAY
AND LAKE DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY. HIGHS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL BARELY CLIMB ABOVE 40.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
EXPECT PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW ALOFT. WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND MODELS INDICATED SOME MINOR
CAPE SO HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND AN INCH FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO RISING RIVER LEVELS.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AS IT
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO
MAINLY SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...BUT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT QUICKLY DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE SOME FOG MAY STILL DEVELOP
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE. A MID DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE LAYER CU RULE OFF THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THEM IN THE 12Z TAFS AT
KRHI/KAUW/KCWA. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1157 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)
COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE
TAHOE IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...CENTERED NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA LINE. ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SUPPORT THAT WILL
GENERATE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY.
IN FACT...BOTH 12Z GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOWING A STRONG 105 KNOT
JET THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND UPPER DESERTS
TODAY THAT WILL HELP TO FUEL THIS STRONG WIND EVENT. EVEN AT 500
MB LEVEL...IMPRESSIVE 80 TO 90 KNOT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
PROJECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...THERE IS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TODAY TO A
DEVELOPING 997 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS. CURRENT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS SHOWING THE SHARP ONSHORE TRENDS ALREADY
OCCURRING...WITH LAX-TONOPAH AT +13.6 MB AND SANTA MARIA-LAS VEGAS
AT +14.6 MB (AS OF 9 AM).
THE ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WIND SUPPORT WILL FOCUS THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS
TODAY. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT ACROSS MOUNTAIN
RIDGETOPS AND ABOVE WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRONG
MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE DESERTS. AS A RESULT...A HIGH WIND WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR DUST STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
TODAY...SO MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. OTHERWISE WIND ADVISORIES
IN EFFECT FOR MANY PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY...WITH
MANY AREAS GUSTING BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL AREAS). WINDS THIS STRONG WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES.
THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALSO GENERATED
A MOIST LAYER RANGING BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET THIS MORNING
WHICH HAS YIELDED WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN . AUTOMATED
RAIN GAUGES SHOWED MANY AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION RECEIVING
MEASURABLE RAINFALL (LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH). THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY WHERE THERE WILL BE THE DEEPEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BEST CYCLONIC FLOW.
*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
TUESDAY WILL BE A MUCH LESS ACTIVE DAY AS THE EFFECTS OF THE TROF
WANE. RESIDUAL NORTHERLY WINDS AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ON THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE ERN SAN
GABRIELS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL
BUMP UP ABOUT 4 DEGREES BUT WILL STILL BE BLO NORMAL.
REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
DOMINATED BY BY A HUMONGOUS COOL UPPER LOW SITTING OVER NEVADA AND
COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE ROCKY MTNS WESTWARD. THE CHC OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH SLOPES WILL END LEAVING ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
OF A SHOWER OVER THE ERN SAN GABRIELS. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 8 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN
UP INTO A BROAD TROF AND THEN WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AT SAME TIME A HIGH AMPLITUDE BUT SKINNY
RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE EAST PAC. THURSDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE TROF AND THE RIDGE. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND MAX TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL AS HGTS RISE
AND ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES.
TWO WARM AND SUNNY DAYS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE. THERE IS NOT THAT MUCH OFFSHORE FLOW
SO WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL THEY WILL NOT BE
SEARINGLY HOT.
THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP AND
STRENGTHENS. SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY BUT MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES FROM SATURDAYS WARM READINGS AND WILL
ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...28/1800Z.
AT 1800Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER KLAX.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS DUE TO LOW CIGS...GUSTY WINDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS. CLEARING AND RISING OF CIGS MAY DIFFER BY +/- 3
HOURS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR TO MVFR CIGS FORM
BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z AND LAST 6 TO 10 HOURS FOR KLAX KBUR KLGB AND
KOXR. THERE MAY BE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY...WITH VSBYS LOCALLY DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LLWS AND STRONG UDDF ARE LIKELY AROUND THE
MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY INCLUDING KBUR KSBA KPMD AND KWJF.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIG FORECAST...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR TO MVFR CIGS FORM
BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z AND LAST 3 TO 8 HOURS.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 04Z...BUT VFR LIKELY AFTER
04Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE 21Z TO
04Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE LLWS BETWEEN 05Z
AND 15Z.
&&
.MARINE...28/900 AM PDT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT WITH LARGE STEEP
SEAS CURRENTLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL EXPAND TO COVER ALL
WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GALE
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS OFF THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
34>37-40-41-44>46. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES
39-52>54. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE
59. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 87. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES
650-655-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...KITTELL/MUNROE
MARINE...KITTELL/MUNROE
SYNOPSIS...SWEET
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
1115 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
We have allowed the Winter Weather Advisory to expire at 11am.
There are still a few locations with chain controls in western NV,
although road conditions will continue to improve through the day
as the road surfaces warm up and melt off the snow. Additional light
accumulations of up to an inch or less are expected. Snow showers
will continue to shift further south of Highway 50 during the
afternoon and this evening. Hoon
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 933 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
UPDATE...
Heavy snow amounts are being reported around the Reno- Sparks
area this morning with many locations about 5 to 10 inches so
far--a classic "slider" type system. HRRR model is showing
additional snow around the I-80 corridor through about 11am this
morning, then shifting south towards Highway 50 late morning and
into the afternoon.
Additional snowfall of up to a few inches will be possible over
the next few hours, but snow will get lighter and have trouble
sticking as we get into the afternoon hours. Also, road
conditions should be improving as well as roads start to melt
off. Unstable conditions will keep snow showers and clouds around
through the afternoon as well, temperatures may struggle to reach
40 degrees in the valleys of western NV. Hoon
AVIATION...
Moderate to heavy snow at KRNO is causing IFR CIG/VIS. These
conditions will likely continue through the morning at KRNO, with
conditions beginning to improve this afternoon. Additional
snowfall is expected, but with temperatures rising only an inch
or two of slush will accumulate on the runways. Conditions have
improved to VFR at KTVL, but as showers pick up this afternoon, we
could have conditions lower back down to MVFR/IFR. Hoon
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 619 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
UPDATE...
Band of moderate to occasionally heavy snow continues along and
north of the I-80 corridor with the southern edge of the band
sliding ever so slowly south toward Carson City-Dayton. Snow
amounts have been in the 2 to 5 inch range thus far in the heavier
snow bands with gusty north winds resulting in localized blowing
and drifting snow. Latest finer scale HRRR model run indicates
only a very slow drift south and east during the morning hours and
then accelerating southward around 18-20z. There may be occasional
letups at KTRK-KRNO-KLOL-KCXP, but given the stationary nature of
this system, CIGS/VSBY will remain restricted with MVFR/periods of
IFR continuing through 18z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
UPDATE...
The band continues to develop near and north of I-80 at this hour.
Latest models keep the band in this vicinity through 8 AM before
it slowly shifts south. Updating to keep most snow accumulation
near and north of I-80 and reducing accumulations near and south
of Highway 50. Also canceling the advisory for southern Lyon
County as the band will not make it there until late morning. By
then, solar heating will be enough to preclude any road
accumulation. Wallmann
SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue moving through the Sierra and
Western Nevada this morning. Snow showers will occur behind the
front today with the heaviest band expected along I-80 this morning.
The upper low will continue to influence area weather into Wednesday
as it slowly pulls east with scattered showers and cold
temperatures. Mild and dry weather returns for late week.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue moving through the Sierra and
Western Nevada this morning. Snow showers will occur behind the
front today with the heaviest band expected along I-80 this
morning. The upper low will continue to influence area weather
into Wednesday as it slowly pulls east with scattered showers and
cold temperatures. Mild and dry weather returns for late week.
SHORT TERM...
The snow event is getting underway as I write this. The surface
cold front is now along a line from Portola to Palomino Valley and
then almost to Highway 50 in Churchill County. Showers have
developed west of the crest and are moving east along the
boundary. Currently, temps are mild from I-80 southward and around
40-45 degrees, but are in the 30s behind the front. With precip
now moving in along I-80, areas below 5000 feet will start as
rain, but expect it to change to snow north of Highway 50 by 6 AM.
As for the band, the NAM/GFS/HRRR are hitting the I-80 corridor
the hardest. The NAM actually shows close to 1" of water in the
Reno/Sparks North Valleys. This is likely overdone, but 1/2" seems
plausible. With the cold air coming in, this will mostly be snow
and 3-6" of snow seems likely along the I-80 corridor above 4500
feet. Lighter amounts farther south away from this main band.
Roads will be slick this morning near I-80 and also into eastern
Plumas County due to the snow. Be prepared for a longer than
normal commute and the advisories will continue as is.
One thing to note is that the band doesn`t make it to southern
Lyon County until late morning. If this occurs, any snow that
falls will melt on impact, especially on the roads due to the
higher late March sun angle.
As we move into the afternoon, the cold pool moves overhead and
expect snow showers to continue across the area, but little
accumulation due to solar heating. Any lake effect for Pyramid
Lake looks less likely today as models now show the winds being
more Northeast, and also 30+ kts at 700 mb. This is in addition
to the diurnal minimum in LES during the afternoon. Still, plenty
of showers will be around in the instability.
The upper low then only slowly pulls away into Wednesday. A
northeast flow will continue on the backside Tuesday and
Wednesday. Showers look more likely Tuesday as the cold pool
remains close enough. Wednesday the instability is weaker and more
south of I-80 so just have a slight chance of showers there.
Temperatures will slowly moderate from today`s much below average
readings, but remain below normal into Wednesday. Wallmann
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...
Only minor changes were made as the previous forecast thinking is on
track. Temperatures will begin to warm Thursday although northeast
flow aloft will persist for one more day and keep the warmup slow
initially. This will be the poorest day for mixing as surface
warming will not keep up with warming temperatures aloft, resulting
in moderate inversions. Friday, we expect temperatures to jump 7-10
degrees with a better mixing profile.
For the weekend, instability and weak shortwave may be sufficient
for isolated showers (probably not much more) across far northeast
CA and northwest NV. Given the northern track of this shortwave,
showers in the Sierra are unlikely and we have removed the mention
there. Otherwise, it is going to be an unseasonably mild weekend
with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 Sierra valleys and mid
60s to low 70s western NV valleys.
AVIATION...
A cold front moving southward into western NV early this morning
will continue to drop south and allow colder air to settle into the
I-80/Hwy 50 corridors. Meanwhile, instability continues to increase
as upper low drops into the region with band of rain and snow
intensifying near and north of I-80. Some models are indicating some
impressive bands of precipitation developing through 15z and right
now, it appears that zone will be very close to where it is setting
up currently which would have bigger impacts for KTRK-KRNO-KLOL.
Temps and dewpoints are currently too warm for much accumulation
below 5000 feet and this will likely remain the case outside of
heavier bands of precipitation even though we do anticipate a
changeover to all snow during the morning hours. So the key to
getting accumulation on area runways will be location of most
intense snow bands prior to 16z. Light accumulations are already
occurring at KTRK and we will just have to monitor radar trends for
KRNO-KLOL. The band is forecast to slide south into Mono-Mineral
County this afternoon and evening with some light accumulations
possible at KMMH near or after sundown. Right now, due to the timing
of the band (later in the morning) at KTVL-KCXP-KNFL, accumulations
look minimal. There could still be some brief slushy accumulations
if snow showers become sufficiently heavy. But any accumulation
will melt quickly once the snow showers pass.
Otherwise, expect periods of IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBY during snow showers
with terrain obscurement, especially close to the Sierra. Hohmann
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
944 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)
COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE
TAHOE IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...CENTERED NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA LINE. ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SUPPORT THAT WILL
GENERATE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY.
IN FACT...BOTH 12Z GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOWING A STRONG 105 KNOT
JET THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND UPPER DESERTS
TODAY THAT WILL HELP TO FUEL THIS STRONG WIND EVENT. EVEN AT 500
MB LEVEL...IMPRESSIVE 80 TO 90 KNOT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
PROJECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...THERE IS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TODAY TO A
DEVELOPING 997 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS. CURRENT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS SHOWING THE SHARP ONSHORE TRENDS ALREADY
OCCURRING...WITH LAX-TONOPAH AT +13.6 MB AND SANTA MARIA-LAS VEGAS
AT +14.6 MB (AS OF 9 AM).
THE ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WIND SUPPORT WILL FOCUS THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS
TODAY. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT ACROSS MOUNTAIN
RIDGETOPS AND ABOVE WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRONG
MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE DESERTS. AS A RESULT...A HIGH WIND WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR DUST STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
TODAY...SO MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. OTHERWISE WIND ADVISORIES
IN EFFECT FOR MANY PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY...WITH
MANY AREAS GUSTING BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL AREAS). WINDS THIS STRONG WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES.
THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALSO GENERATED
A MOIST LAYER RANGING BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET THIS MORNING
WHICH HAS YIELDED WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN . AUTOMATED
RAIN GAUGES SHOWED MANY AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION RECEIVING
MEASURABLE RAINFALL (LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH). THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY WHERE THERE WILL BE THE DEEPEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BEST CYCLONIC FLOW.
*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
TUESDAY WILL BE A MUCH LESS ACTIVE DAY AS THE EFFECTS OF THE TROF
WANE. RESIDUAL NORTHERLY WINDS AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ON THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE ERN SAN
GABRIELS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL
BUMP UP ABOUT 4 DEGREES BUT WILL STILL BE BLO NORMAL.
REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
DOMINATED BY BY A HUMONGOUS COOL UPPER LOW SITTING OVER NEVADA AND
COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE ROCKY MTNS WESTWARD. THE CHC OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH SLOPES WILL END LEAVING ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
OF A SHOWER OVER THE ERN SAN GABRIELS. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 8 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN
UP INTO A BROAD TROF AND THEN WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AT SAME TIME A HIGH AMPLITUDE BUT SKINNY
RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE EAST PAC. THURSDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE TROF AND THE RIDGE. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND MAX TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL AS HGTS RISE
AND ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES.
TWO WARM AND SUNNY DAYS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE. THERE IS NOT THAT MUCH OFFSHORE FLOW
SO WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL THEY WILL NOT BE
SEARINGLY HOT.
THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP AND
STRENGTHENS. SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY BUT MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES FROM SATURDAYS WARM READINGS AND WILL
ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...28/1100Z.
AT 0800Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS 2700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT 3300 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
12 DEGREES C.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
LIFR TO VLIFR CONDS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON THE COASTAL SLOPES.
THERE COULD BE LOCAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY. EXPECT CIGS TO SCATTER OUT IN
MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT ACROSS L.A. COUNTY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS...WHERE CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD CONT TO RISE...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
STRONG AND GUSTY W TO NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST AND IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. PARTICULARLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 40
KNOTS...AND GUSTS COULD REACH 55 TO POSSIBLY 60 KNOTS. THERE WILL
BE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...WITH
VSBYS LOCALLY DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LLWS AND STRONG UDDF ARE LIKELY IN THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...28/900 AM PDT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT WITH LARGE STEEP
SEAS CURRENTLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL EXPAND TO COVER ALL
WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GALE
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS OFF THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
34>37-40-41-44>46. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES
39-52>54. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE
59. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 87. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES
650-655-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...KITTELL/MUNROE
MARINE...KITTELL/MUNROE
SYNOPSIS...SWEET
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
933 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
Heavy snow amounts are being reported around the Reno- Sparks
area this morning with many locations about 5 to 10 inches so
far--a classic "slider" type system. HRRR model is showing
additional snow around the I-80 corridor through about 11am this
morning, then shifting south towards Highway 50 late morning and
into the afternoon.
Additional snowfall of up to a few inches will be possible over
the next few hours, but snow will get lighter and have trouble
sticking as we get into the afternoon hours. Also, road
conditions should be improving as well as roads start to melt
off. Unstable conditions will keep snow showers and clouds around
through the afternoon as well, temperatures may struggle to reach
40 degrees in the valleys of western NV. Hoon
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate to heavy snow at KRNO is causing IFR CIG/VIS. These
conditions will likely continue through the morning at KRNO, with
conditions beginning to improve this afternoon. Additional
snowfall is expected, but with temperatures rising only an inch
or two of slush will accumulate on the runways. Conditions have
improved to VFR at KTVL, but as showers pick up this afternoon, we
could have conditions lower back down to MVFR/IFR. Hoon
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 619 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
UPDATE...
Band of moderate to occasionally heavy snow continues along and
north of the I-80 corridor with the southern edge of the band
sliding ever so slowly south toward Carson City-Dayton. Snow
amounts have been in the 2 to 5 inch range thus far in the heavier
snow bands with gusty north winds resulting in localized blowing
and drifting snow. Latest finer scale HRRR model run indicates
only a very slow drift south and east during the morning hours and
then accelerating southward around 18-20z. There may be occasional
letups at KTRK-KRNO-KLOL-KCXP, but given the stationary nature of
this system, CIGS/VSBY will remain restricted with MVFR/periods of
IFR continuing through 18z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
UPDATE...
The band continues to develop near and north of I-80 at this hour.
Latest models keep the band in this vicinity through 8 AM before
it slowly shifts south. Updating to keep most snow accumulation
near and north of I-80 and reducing accumulations near and south
of Highway 50. Also canceling the advisory for southern Lyon
County as the band will not make it there until late morning. By
then, solar heating will be enough to preclude any road
accumulation. Wallmann
SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue moving through the Sierra and
Western Nevada this morning. Snow showers will occur behind the
front today with the heaviest band expected along I-80 this morning.
The upper low will continue to influence area weather into Wednesday
as it slowly pulls east with scattered showers and cold
temperatures. Mild and dry weather returns for late week.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue moving through the Sierra and
Western Nevada this morning. Snow showers will occur behind the
front today with the heaviest band expected along I-80 this
morning. The upper low will continue to influence area weather
into Wednesday as it slowly pulls east with scattered showers and
cold temperatures. Mild and dry weather returns for late week.
SHORT TERM...
The snow event is getting underway as I write this. The surface
cold front is now along a line from Portola to Palomino Valley and
then almost to Highway 50 in Churchill County. Showers have
developed west of the crest and are moving east along the
boundary. Currently, temps are mild from I-80 southward and around
40-45 degrees, but are in the 30s behind the front. With precip
now moving in along I-80, areas below 5000 feet will start as
rain, but expect it to change to snow north of Highway 50 by 6 AM.
As for the band, the NAM/GFS/HRRR are hitting the I-80 corridor
the hardest. The NAM actually shows close to 1" of water in the
Reno/Sparks North Valleys. This is likely overdone, but 1/2" seems
plausible. With the cold air coming in, this will mostly be snow
and 3-6" of snow seems likely along the I-80 corridor above 4500
feet. Lighter amounts farther south away from this main band.
Roads will be slick this morning near I-80 and also into eastern
Plumas County due to the snow. Be prepared for a longer than
normal commute and the advisories will continue as is.
One thing to note is that the band doesn`t make it to southern
Lyon County until late morning. If this occurs, any snow that
falls will melt on impact, especially on the roads due to the
higher late March sun angle.
As we move into the afternoon, the cold pool moves overhead and
expect snow showers to continue across the area, but little
accumulation due to solar heating. Any lake effect for Pyramid
Lake looks less likely today as models now show the winds being
more Northeast, and also 30+ kts at 700 mb. This is in addition
to the diurnal minimum in LES during the afternoon. Still, plenty
of showers will be around in the instability.
The upper low then only slowly pulls away into Wednesday. A
northeast flow will continue on the backside Tuesday and
Wednesday. Showers look more likely Tuesday as the cold pool
remains close enough. Wednesday the instability is weaker and more
south of I-80 so just have a slight chance of showers there.
Temperatures will slowly moderate from today`s much below average
readings, but remain below normal into Wednesday. Wallmann
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...
Only minor changes were made as the previous forecast thinking is on
track. Temperatures will begin to warm Thursday although northeast
flow aloft will persist for one more day and keep the warmup slow
initially. This will be the poorest day for mixing as surface
warming will not keep up with warming temperatures aloft, resulting
in moderate inversions. Friday, we expect temperatures to jump 7-10
degrees with a better mixing profile.
For the weekend, instability and weak shortwave may be sufficient
for isolated showers (probably not much more) across far northeast
CA and northwest NV. Given the northern track of this shortwave,
showers in the Sierra are unlikely and we have removed the mention
there. Otherwise, it is going to be an unseasonably mild weekend
with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 Sierra valleys and mid
60s to low 70s western NV valleys.
AVIATION...
A cold front moving southward into western NV early this morning
will continue to drop south and allow colder air to settle into the
I-80/Hwy 50 corridors. Meanwhile, instability continues to increase
as upper low drops into the region with band of rain and snow
intensifying near and north of I-80. Some models are indicating some
impressive bands of precipitation developing through 15z and right
now, it appears that zone will be very close to where it is setting
up currently which would have bigger impacts for KTRK-KRNO-KLOL.
Temps and dewpoints are currently too warm for much accumulation
below 5000 feet and this will likely remain the case outside of
heavier bands of precipitation even though we do anticipate a
changeover to all snow during the morning hours. So the key to
getting accumulation on area runways will be location of most
intense snow bands prior to 16z. Light accumulations are already
occurring at KTRK and we will just have to monitor radar trends for
KRNO-KLOL. The band is forecast to slide south into Mono-Mineral
County this afternoon and evening with some light accumulations
possible at KMMH near or after sundown. Right now, due to the timing
of the band (later in the morning) at KTVL-KCXP-KNFL, accumulations
look minimal. There could still be some brief slushy accumulations
if snow showers become sufficiently heavy. But any accumulation
will melt quickly once the snow showers pass.
Otherwise, expect periods of IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBY during snow showers
with terrain obscurement, especially close to the Sierra. Hohmann
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning NVZ003-004.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
901 AM MST MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH BLOWING DUST AT TIMES. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO USHER IN
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND
BEGINS THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE MODEST AND
LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A PRE-FRONTAL REGIME CHARACTERIZES THE CURRENT SETUP ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MORNING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ HAS
BEEN STRONGER THAN NORMAL AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE CO RIVER
VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS ON AREA SOUNDINGS ARE FAR FROM
BEING OFF THE CHART WITH REGARDS TO CLIMATOLOGY. THE SCENARIO IS A
BIT CLEARER WHEN VIEWING THE NAEFS ANOMALIES...AS THE STRONGEST
VALUES ARE STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST AND DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AS
THE DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DRIFTS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN ARRIVES
TOMORROW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE WEATHER SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS COVERING MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
HAS REACHED SOUTHERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS OF
THIS WRITING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD AS AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
TONIGHT...AND REACH THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE...STRONGEST WINDS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THERE...LESS WIND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
OF COURSE KICK UP THE DUST. CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE BREEZY TUESDAY.
THERE ARE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND DIV Q FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WITH MUCH OF THE SYSTEM TAKING AN OVERLAND TRAJECTORY ALONG
WITH A POSITIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH PLUS RAIN SHADOWING
EFFECTS...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR OUR AREA.
THUS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MAINLY TUESDAY.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE THOUGH. IN FACT...DESERT HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE
TROUGH STARTS DEPARTING THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP
BUT WITH READINGS STILL BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT. MODELS DIVERGE MORE
NOTICEABLY ON SUNDAY WITH GFS AND CMC FLATTENING THE RIDGE WHILE THE
ECMWF DEPICTS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE. DIFFERENCES ARE NOT THAT GREAT IN
REALITY. DIFFERENCES ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH HOW THEY HANDLE AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL WARMING SUNDAY AS THE LOWER
LEVELS REALIZE THE FULL SUBSIDENCE WARMING FROM ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
STRONGER WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION IMPACT WITH ONLY FEW-SCT MIDLEVEL DECKS BELOW AN INCREASING
THICKER CIRRUS LAYER. AN EASTERLY SFC WIND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
TOWARDS A SOUTHERLY CROSS RUNWAY COMPONENT LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW
GUSTS TO 20KT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CROSS WIND COMPONENT...
BEFORE DIRECTIONS VEER MORE TOWARDS A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY MID
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS VERY GOOD THAT GUSTS 25-30KT WILL BE LIKELY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WINDS TO PERSIST WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT PAST MIDNIGHT AND
OVER MOST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS TONIGHT. ALSO...MAY SEE CONDITIONS
APPROACHING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA AT THE TAF SITES...
INCLUDING KPHX...AFTER 9PM AS SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE A BIT AND 30
PLUS KNOTS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 2K FEET. FINALLY...WE MAY
SEE SCT-BKN DECKS 6-8K FEET DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND PERSIST INTO TUE
MORNING BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO FALL AS LOW AS 5K AT PHOENIX
OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH BLOWING DUST WILL BE THE MAIN
AVIATION IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT VARIABLE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME STRONGER WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH VERY STRONG GUSTS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY GOOD THAT FREQUENT SOUTHWEST GUSTS 30-40KT ALONG
WITH BLOWING DUST OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBY INTO A MVFR CATEGORY
WILL IMPACT TERMINAL SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 03Z EXPECT
PERSISTENT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20KT AT THE TAF SITES
CONTINUING WELL PAST MIDNIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL EAST OF PHOENIX ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING. LESS WIND IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS
STAYING BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. HUMIDITIES WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS MOSTLY 15 TO 25 PERCENT...WITH GRADUAL
DRYING INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY MANY LOWER DESERTS WILL FALL TO AROUND
10 PERCENT MINIMUM HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR AZZ020-021.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR CAZ030>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB/MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB/KUHLMAN/MEYERS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
858 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cool weather system settles in over the interior West through
mid-week resulting in cool and breezy weather for NorCal along
with scattered showers over the mountains. Minor snowfall
accumulations will be possible over the northern Sierra. Dry with
warmer temperatures by end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Good Morning from NWS Sacramento! No changes to this morning`s
forecast package. Wind Advisory still in effect from 10 am to 7 pm
today in the Sacramento Valley, Delta, and into the Northern San
Joaquin Valley. The latest HRRR shows that the winds may not be as
strong in the Northern San Joaquin valley compared to Sacramento
Valley, but still on the breezy side.
.Previous Discussion...
Satellite imagery shows the strong vort
dropping southward into NorCal as the cold upper low closes off
over the PacNW. Showers, and a few thunderstorms, blossomed over
the foothills and Sierra north of I-80 during the late night hours
as the vort approached. Showers will continue to wrap-around into
the northern Sierra today, and potentially the foothills and
eastern portions of the valley this afternoon, as the low
consolidates over the Great Basin.
Main impacts will be centered around breezy northerly winds in the
Central Valley and scattered to numerous showers over the northern
Sierra where accumulating snow will be possible across the higher
elevations at times into early Tuesday.
Upper low forecast to shift a little further east on Tuesday
limiting shower chances to mainly the northern Sierra. Surface
pressure gradients expected to weaken for less breezy conditions
across the region.
Still a threat for a few lingering showers in the Sierra south of
Tahoe into Wednesday, but ridging from the eastern Pacific builds
back into NorCal for a return to dry and milder weather for most
of the region.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
High pressure holds on over Northern California Friday resulting
in another warm, sunny day. A couple weak waves moves across the
area over the weekend bringing a slight chance of showers to
northern mountains. Model diverge early next week with the GFS
bringing another inside slider, while the ECMWF introduces a flat
ridge transitioning into a broad, weak trough. Either way, nothing
too exciting with the best chance of showers remaining across the
mountains. JClapp
&&
.AVIATION...
Northerly flow aloft as upper low drops south into CA/NV. Cold
front passing through NorCal this morning with a VFR Valley and
northerly winds spreading south today. Local MVFR/IFR conditions
assoc with frontal and possible showers over Sierra southward of
Plumas county. Areas W-NW sfc wind gusts to 30 kts over mountains.
Northerly sfc wind gusts 30 to 35 kts in northern Sac Valley
after 14z and spreading southward into northern SJ Valley in
afternoon. JClapp
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for Carquinez Strait
and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-
Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1213 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
An upper level trough across the pacific northwest will dig
southeast into NV and UT Tonight and amplify. A downstream upper
level ridge will amplify across the the central and southern plains.
A lee surface trough will deepen across eastern CO which will cause
south-southeast winds across eastern KS to increase through the
afternoon hours to 10 to 20 MPH with gusts of 15 to 30 MPH. The
stronger surface winds will occur across north central KS. The
southerly winds will help to warm high temperatures into the mid to
upper 60s.
Tonight...the low-level jet will increase across western OK and the
western half of KS through the night. This will result in the
transport of deeper moisture northward into western KS. The
resulting isentropic lift will cause elevated showers and
thunderstorms to late tonight across west central KS. A few of these
showers and elevated thunderstorms may move into the far western
counties towards sunrise. Most of the numerical models show the
showers and elevated storms remaining west of the CWA. I placed a 15-
20 percent pop in the western counties late tonight, in case a few
of these elevated storms reach the western counties. The model
forecasts show only 100 to 400 j/kg of MUCAPE, so these elevated
storms will not be strong or severe. southeast surface winds will
keep overnight lows in the lower to mid 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Will keep some small pops going through the day Tuesday as
isentropic lift weakens but southwest flow aloft could bring any
precip on east. High cloud should stay rather thick with strong
south winds beginning to saturate the lower levels in central
Kansas. Have lowered highs a bit with more cloud expectations. Will
need to continue to watch wind speeds in the afternoon and night,
but a more backed lower level profile suggests less concern than
before. Am less convinced of precip development Tuesday night into
early Wednesday with weak elevated mixed layer in place, but
moistening does occur aloft under diffluent jet, and could yet get
some sprinkles in the saturating lower levels.
Concern for severe storms remains for Wednesday afternoon and night.
Upper trough rotating out of the western low pushes into the Central
Plains in the day and on east into the Mississippi Valley Wednesday
night with 500mb height falls around 110 m during the day. Dryline
will push through much of Kansas during the day, but differences
remain on timing and how much destabilization can occur as winds
remain stout from the south with mixed layer aloft for a persistent
stratus scenario, though CAPE could exceed 1000 J/kg. Strong wind
fields aloft with 500mb winds in the 50-70kt range will bring
considerable shear potential, but again much in the specifics remain
to be desired in the lower levels based on timing and mixing
uncertainty.
Passage of the upper wave should dry the column out enough to keep
any thing more than a few sprinkles in check from any weak northern
branch energy Thursday into Friday. Upper flow backs into the
weekend with old surface ridge to the south keeping moisture return
retarded. High temps should moderate from the 50s to the 60s during
these periods.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VFR prevails at terminals with occasional gusty south winds
backing to the southeast aft 22Z above 10 kts sustained. Winds
weaken to near 5 kts overnight as high clouds increase from the
west. MVFR stratus with the next system is possible in the 15Z to
18Z time frame, however too low in confidence to mention for this
issuance.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Expect a very high fire danger across the CWA this afternoon. Some
areas across the western half of the CWA may be near red flag
conditions. As the lee surface trough across eastern CO deepens this
afternoon the surface pressure gradient will increase across central
KS causing south-southeast surface winds to increase to 15 to 20 MPH
with some gusts up to 30 MPH. The RAP forecast soundings show deeper
mixing up to 800mb across north central KS which would cause
dewpoints to mix out into the upper teens and lower 20s causing
minimum RHs to drop below 20 percent. Since the winds will be
slightly backed to the south-southeast the RAP may be mixing the
boundary layer too deep. At this time I`m leaning more towards a
model blend in which several members show the boundary layer only
mixing up to around 850mb which would keep afternoon dewpoints in the
mid to upper 20s and result in minimum RHs in the 21-27 percent
range. The stronger wind gusts probably will not occur until the
late afternoon hours.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Bowen
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
419 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING FM QUEBEC INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG IN THE
PLAINS AND A DEEPENING TROF OVER WRN NAMERICA. SHRTWV/DEEP LO PRES
ARE MOVING THRU SE CANADA. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOW E OF THE CWA...SOME SC LINGERS OVER THE ERN
CWA IN THE THERMAL TROF /H85 TEMPS ARND -4C/ AND SLOWLY WEAKENING CYC
NLY FLOW LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LO. BUT MORE ACYC FLOW
EXTENDING S FM HI CENTER OVER FAR NW ONTARIO/ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL
AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL AND YPL RAOBS AS WELL AS DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING HAS ERODED THE LO CLDS OVER THE W. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHRTWV/AREA OF MID CLDS MOVING INTO WRN LK SUP...BUT LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STRONGER SHRTWV
IS CAUSING THESE MID CLDS TO DIMINISH AS THE TRAILING DISTURBANCE
SLIDES INTO THE UPR LKS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON
TEMPS.
TNGT...THE HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO BUILD SLOWLY S UNDER
CONFLUENT NW FLOW E OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO BUILD
IN MN OVERNGT. EXPECT MID CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV TO
CONTINUE TO DSPT IN THE LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AHEAD
OF THIS RDG. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE LO CLDS MAY
PERSIST OR REFORM OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE NLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APRCHING HI PRES...DRYING/CLRG TRENDS UPSTREAM HINT THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING LESS IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. WITH
PWAT FCST TO FALL TO NEAR 0.20 INCH AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE MOCLR
SKIES...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AT SOME OF THE COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CWA.
TUE...INCRSG SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES RETREATING TO THE
E IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS TO ARND 2C IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME HI CLDS SPILLING OVER UPR RDG AXIS SHIFTING OVER THE WRN
GREAT LKS...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S/CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE FAR W WHERE THE STEADY SLY FLOW WL
DOWNSLOPE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS...SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVER WRN N AMERICA...THOUGH WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW AS
ENERGY UNDERCUTS WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE MORE PERSISTENT POSITIVE
ANOMALY CENTER IN WRN CANADA. PER GFS ENSEMBLES...THE RIDGE WILL
REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE WED/THU WHEN 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES TOP OUT AT
3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN NRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ADJACENT YUKON. THIS WILL FORCE DEEP ERN TROFFING INTO SE
CANADA AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. MAX NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 3-
3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO CLIMATOLOGY WILL BE CENTERED OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUN. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS HAVE
BEEN FOR FASTER WEAKENING OF THE WRN RIDGE WHICH RESULTS IN THE CORE
OF AN UNUSUALLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR EARLY APR PASSING BY TO THE
NE OF HERE. STILL...WEATHER WILL BE MUCH COLDER ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
WEEKEND. QUICK MODERATION BACK TOWARD MORE TYPICAL EARLY APR TEMPS
WILL THEN OCCUR NEXT WEEK DUE TO WEAKER WRN RIDGING. HOWEVER...TEMPS
COULD BECOME QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 2
SHORTWAVES/LOW PRES SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE NRN CONUS TO THE S
OF LINGERING COLD AIR ACROSS CANADA. AS FOR PCPN...MAIN PCPN EVENT
DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL REVOLVE AROUND EVOLUTION OF THE ENERGY
CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE SW CONUS. A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL EJECT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVES S IN THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE MAIN
PCPN EVENT OF THIS FCST CYCLE...OCCURRING WED/THU. MORE ON THIS
LATER. CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING EARLY SAT WILL THEN HERALD THE ARRIVAL
OF MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...ACCOMPANIED BY LATE SEASON LES
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHSN. NEXT PCPN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR AROUND
TUE.
BEGINNING TUE NIGHT/WED...IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
SW CONUS AND A WEAKER NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SWINGING TOWARD NRN
ONTARIO...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE UP THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES. UNDER THE STRENGTHENING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS VIEWED ON THE 290-295K SURFACES...EXPECT RAIN
TO DEVELOP W TO E TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. UNDER SLOW HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPWARD MOTION...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THE COLUMN MAY COOL JUST
ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW OVER NW UPPER MI LATE TUE
NIGHT/WED. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATER WED AFTN AT THE
EARLIEST...ANY MIX OF RAIN WITH SNOW WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER FROPA.
AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT/THU...DEGREE OF PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY DIVING S INTO
THE PLAINS WILL DETERMINE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW PRES
TRACKING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PHASING IS
FURTHER COMPLICATED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SSE THRU MANITOBA.
AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A WELL DEVELOPED/WRAPPED UP
WINTER STORM WILL EVOLVE FROM THIS MESS OF SHORTWAVES...BUT THAT`S
NOT TO SAY THAT SOME MDT TO PERHAPS HVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WON`T
OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
UPPER LAKES. AS OPPOSED TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PREVIOUS DAYS...
ROUGHLY THE LAST DAY OF GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER CONVERGENCE
TOWARD A SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WRN PLAINS ENE ACROSS WI INTO FAR
ERN UPPER MI/STRAITS AREA. DEGREE OF PHASING OF SHORTWAVES WHICH
WILL AFFECT THE SFC LOW INTENSIFICATION IS UNCERTAIN. IF THE
SHORTWAVES BECOME BETTER PHASED...A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP WITH A HEAVIER/MORE PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION PCPN BAND
DEVELOPING FARTHER INTO THE COLD AIR...RESULTING IN A GREATER RISK
OF A HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. WEAKER
PHASING WILL LEAD TO A LESSER RISK OF HEAVY SNOWFALL. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED IN STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND THERMAL
PROFILES...WILL UTILIZE A BLENDED APPROACH OF RECENT MODEL RUNS TO
CONSTRUCT PCPN AMOUNTS AND PTYPE. AT THIS POINT...THE NW HALF OF
UPPER MI HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THAT MAY REQUIRE A HEADLINE WED NIGHT/THU.
MAIN SYNOPTIC PCPN SHIELD WILL DEPART LATER THU/THU EVENING.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN MANITOBA WILL SWING THRU NRN
ONTARIO/UPPER LAKES ON FRI...PROVIDING AT LEAST SCT -SHSN THAT WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASS ACROSS THE AREA SAT
MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -14 TO -17C SAT...LOOKS LIKE A
SPRING-TIME HYBRID TYPE OF LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO AS DAYTIME HEATING
DISRUPTS LES PROCESSES AND LEADS TO VIGOROUS SCT-NMRS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHSN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR
ALOFT. -SHSN WOULD THEN TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL LES REGIME
SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -20C. WITH OVERALL
MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A FASTER WEAKENING OF THE WRN RIDGE AND THUS A
QUICKER DEPARTURE OF COLD AIR...MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHSN ACTIVITY ON SUN AS LES PROCESSES GET DISRUPTED AGAIN BY DAYTIME
HEATING.
ON MON...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY STREAK INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR...BUT
MODELS SHOW LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...TYPICAL FOR A SMALLER
SCALE FEATURE AT THIS TIME RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
ALTHOUGH SOME LO CLDS MAY LINGER AT SAW EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...
DRY HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS WL RESULT IN PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS INTO
TUE. BUT AS THIS HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE E OF DEVELOPING LO PRES IN
THE PLAINS...EXPECT ESE VEERING SSW WINDS INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS
INTO WED. AS THE LO TRACKS JUST TO THE S ON WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NNE AND INCREASE UP TO GALE FORCE OVER MUCH OF THE
LAKE LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH A BIT LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WEAK TRAILING HI PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG N WINDS THAT MAY REACH GALE FORCE COULD DEVELOP
ON SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER LO PRES THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING FM QUEBEC INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG IN THE
PLAINS AND A DEEPENING TROF OVER WRN NAMERICA. SHRTWV/DEEP LO PRES
ARE MOVING THRU SE CANADA. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOW E OF THE CWA...SOME SC LINGERS OVER THE ERN
CWA IN THE THERMAL TROF /H85 TEMPS ARND -4C/ AND SLOWLY WEAKENING CYC
NLY FLOW LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LO. BUT MORE ACYC FLOW
EXTENDING S FM HI CENTER OVER FAR NW ONTARIO/ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL
AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL AND YPL RAOBS AS WELL AS DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING HAS ERODED THE LO CLDS OVER THE W. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHRTWV/AREA OF MID CLDS MOVING INTO WRN LK SUP...BUT LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STRONGER SHRTWV
IS CAUSING THESE MID CLDS TO DIMINISH AS THE TRAILING DISTURBANCE
SLIDES INTO THE UPR LKS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON
TEMPS.
TNGT...THE HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO BUILD SLOWLY S UNDER
CONFLUENT NW FLOW E OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO BUILD
IN MN OVERNGT. EXPECT MID CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV TO
CONTINUE TO DSPT IN THE LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AHEAD
OF THIS RDG. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE LO CLDS MAY
PERSIST OR REFORM OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE NLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APRCHING HI PRES...DRYING/CLRG TRENDS UPSTREAM HINT THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING LESS IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. WITH
PWAT FCST TO FALL TO NEAR 0.20 INCH AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE MOCLR
SKIES...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AT SOME OF THE COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CWA.
TUE...INCRSG SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES RETREATING TO THE
E IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS TO ARND 2C IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME HI CLDS SPILLING OVER UPR RDG AXIS SHIFTING OVER THE WRN
GREAT LKS...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S/CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE FAR W WHERE THE STEADY SLY FLOW WL
DOWNSLOPE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
FOCUS ON WED NIGHT-THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR GLANCES THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN SHOWING A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE BEING KICKED E BY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE NORTHERN STREAM PUNCH WILL CAUSE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS PHASING AND JET STREAM COUPLING
OCCUR...AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH BETTER PHASING.
MORE MINOR...RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. THE 00Z/28 GFS AND 12Z/27 ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT...WITH THE 00Z/28 GLOBAL GEM TRENDING TOWARD THESE MODELS.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z/28 NAM IS VERY DIFFERENT...SO WILL NOT USE THAT
MODEL AND STICK WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. DYNAMIC COOLING ALONG WITH
CAA WILL TRANSITION RAIN TO SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THE 850MB LOW
TRACK LATE WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT...THEN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT
PULLS OUT THU. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 984MB SFC LOW
MOVING FROM GRB AT 12Z THU TO NEAR THE STRAITS OF MACK AT 981MB BY
18Z THU...THEN INTO CANADA BY 00Z FRI. THIS TRACK RESULTS IN SEVERAL
INCHES (POSSIBLY OVER A FOOT GIVEN QPF OF 1-1.25 INCHES FROM THE
ECMWF AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES FROM THE GFS...BOTH DURING TIMES WHEN
PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW) OF HEAVY SNOW TO MAINLY NW OF A
LINE FROM MUNISING TO IRON MOUNTAIN...WITH THE HEAVIEST SWATH FROM
WATERSMEET TO BARAGA/L`ANSE. THIS IS A PRETTY VOLATILE SYSTEM...SO
EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. BIG FOCUS
RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...SO STAY TUNED.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -13C FRI...WHICH WILL BE GOOD FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE
TOWARD A GLANCING SHOT AND WARMER OVERALL. WILL KEEP LIKELY LES POPS
SAT INTO SUN...BUT TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
ALTHOUGH SOME LO CLDS MAY LINGER AT SAW EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...
DRY HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS WL RESULT IN PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS INTO
TUE. BUT AS THIS HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE E OF DEVELOPING LO PRES IN
THE PLAINS...EXPECT ESE VEERING SSW WINDS INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS
INTO WED. AS THE LO TRACKS JUST TO THE S ON WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NNE AND INCREASE UP TO GALE FORCE OVER MUCH OF THE
LAKE LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH A BIT LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WEAK TRAILING HI PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG N WINDS THAT MAY REACH GALE FORCE COULD DEVELOP
ON SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER LO PRES THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
124 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TRACKING E THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUPPORTING SOME
MID CLOUDS OVER ERN ND AND NRN MN. AT SFC...TIGHT GRADIENT ON
BACKSIDE OF LOW CENTERED OVER THE SRN TIP OF LAKE HURON HAS
SUPPORTED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
THE SFC LOW COMBINED WITH ONSHORE/UPSLOPE NORTHERLY WINDS HAS
SUPPORTED DZ/FZDZ AND PATCHY FOG OVER PORTIONS OF NCNTRL UPPER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING FZDZ TO CAUSE MANY ISSUES ON
ROADS/SIDEWALKS AS WARM GROUND AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT
ICE ACCUMULATION. AT SAME TIME...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE DRAWING IN
INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR FROM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER WRN AND NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER MI.
MODEL SOUNDINGS...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST DRIER AIR AT
LOW-LVLS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH CONTINUED ADVANCEMENT OF SFC RDGG FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS DRYING SHOULD EFFECTIVELY PUT END TO LINGERING
DZ/PATCHY FOG BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS...BUT
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF SKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER PORTIONS OF
NCNTRL/ERN CWA UNDER LINGERING CYCLONIC UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW.
WITH SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...EXPECT A SEASONABLY COLD FROSTY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
FOCUS ON WED NIGHT-THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR GLANCES THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN SHOWING A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE BEING KICKED E BY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE NORTHERN STREAM PUNCH WILL CAUSE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS PHASING AND JET STREAM COUPLING
OCCUR...AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH BETTER PHASING.
MORE MINOR...RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. THE 00Z/28 GFS AND 12Z/27 ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT...WITH THE 00Z/28 GLOBAL GEM TRENDING TOWARD THESE MODELS.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z/28 NAM IS VERY DIFFERENT...SO WILL NOT USE THAT
MODEL AND STICK WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. DYNAMIC COOLING ALONG WITH
CAA WILL TRANSITION RAIN TO SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THE 850MB LOW
TRACK LATE WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT...THEN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT
PULLS OUT THU. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 984MB SFC LOW
MOVING FROM GRB AT 12Z THU TO NEAR THE STRAITS OF MACK AT 981MB BY
18Z THU...THEN INTO CANADA BY 00Z FRI. THIS TRACK RESULTS IN SEVERAL
INCHES (POSSIBLY OVER A FOOT GIVEN QPF OF 1-1.25 INCHES FROM THE
ECMWF AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES FROM THE GFS...BOTH DURING TIMES WHEN
PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW) OF HEAVY SNOW TO MAINLY NW OF A
LINE FROM MUNISING TO IRON MOUNTAIN...WITH THE HEAVIEST SWATH FROM
WATERSMEET TO BARAGA/L`ANSE. THIS IS A PRETTY VOLATILE SYSTEM...SO
EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. BIG FOCUS
RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...SO STAY TUNED.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -13C FRI...WHICH WILL BE GOOD FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE
TOWARD A GLANCING SHOT AND WARMER OVERALL. WILL KEEP LIKELY LES POPS
SAT INTO SUN...BUT TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
ALTHOUGH SOME LO CLDS MAY LINGER AT SAW EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...
DRY HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS WL RESULT IN PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
WITH LOW PRES TRACKING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING..NNW WINDS 15-25KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY. CLOSER TO AN ADVANCING HIGH PRES RIDGE...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER
15KT...WILL THEN BECOME THE RULE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT THRU AT
LEAST TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. SE TO S WINDS WILL
THEN BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TUE THRU WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF FLOW... STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...PROBABLY TO 20-30KT. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES WED NIGHT AND A LOW PRES WAVE TRACKS LONG THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE TO NEAR 30KT WED NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST NE-N GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THU/THU EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE ON FRI BEFORE A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF GALES
DURING THE DAY SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
321 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Quiet conditions are expected tonight due to a surface ridge moving
across the region. Some locations may experience patchy frost again
tonight, particularly in the valleys of the eastern Ozarks where
winds should decouple and temperatures would be lower compared to
surrounding areas.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Still looks like Tuesday will be dry as THE upper ridge axis will
still be building over the area in response to the upper low
digging over the western CONUS. Should see a few more high clouds
than we did today, but with morning lows not as cool and with the
low levels a bit warmer, should see highs a few degrees warmer
tomorrow.
Would expect that Tuesday night will be mostly dry before a strong
low level jet sets up strong moisture transport overnight in
response to the upper low beginning to lift out of the western
CONUS. By Wednesday morning there should be enough low level
moisture convergence under increasing mid level ascent for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. The best chance
for thunderstorms will wait until Wednesday night when there will
have been have been the longest period of time for moisture fetch
from the Gulf. In addition, this is when GFS/ECMWF show the
strongest combination of low level convergence underneath the
ascent ahead of the mid level trough. There still remains the
potential for a few strong or severe storms either late Wednesday
or Wednesday night given the amount of deep layer shear. Cold
front will move across the area early on Thursday and rain chances
will end across the area from west to east on Thursday morning.
Warm air advection should still help temperatures climb above
normal on Wednesday even with the clouds and the rain chances.
(Friday through Monday)
ECMWF and GFS are still showing that a second upper trough will
move across the area on Friday before northwesterly flow sets up
over the area early in the weekend. This flow pattern gradually
dampens out when yet another shortwave trough moves across the Great
Lakes on Sunday night into Monday which will bring it`s
accompanying cold front across Missouri and Illinois on Monday.
Both models do not show much deep moisture in the the atmosphere
during this time period or QPF, so precipitation chances will be
low. It also appears that the really cold air that the models were
showing intruding into the Midwest next weekend on their runs a
couple of days ago are staying over Great Lakes into the far
northeast CONUS. Because of this trend, temperatures over our area
will stay closer to normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
VFR through the period. Initially northwest winds will become
lgt/var tonight when a surface ridge passes overhead, then become
southeasterly after the ridge has moved east of the area.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
321 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Quiet conditions are expected tonight due to a surface ridge moving
across the region. Some locations may experience patchy frost again
tonight, particularly in the valleys of the eastern Ozarks where
winds should decouple and temperatures would be lower compared to
surrounding areas.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Still looks like Tuesday will be dry as THE upper ridge axis will
still be building over the area in response to the upper low
digging over the western CONUS. Should see a few more high clouds
than we did today, but with morning lows not as cool and with the
low levels a bit warmer, should see highs a few degrees warmer
tomorrow.
Would expect that Tuesday night will be mostly dry before a strong
low level jet sets up strong moisture transport overnight in
response to the upper low beginning to lift out of the western
CONUS. By Wednesday morning there should be enough low level
moisture convergence under increasing mid level ascent for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. The best chance
for thunderstorms will wait until Wednesday night when there will
have been have been the longest period of time for moisture fetch
from the Gulf. In addition, this is when GFS/ECMWF show the
strongest combination of low level convergence underneath the
ascent ahead of the mid level trough. There still remains the
potential for a few strong or severe storms either late Wednesday
or Wednesday night given the amount of deep layer shear. Cold
front will move across the area early on Thursday and rain chances
will end across the area from west to east on Thursday morning.
Warm air advection should still help temperatures climb above
normal on Wednesday even with the clouds and the rain chances.
(Friday through Monday)
ECMWF and GFS are still showing that a second upper trough will
move across the area on Friday before northwesterly flow sets up
over the area early in the weekend. This flow pattern gradually
dampens out when yet another shortwave trough moves across the Great
Lakes on Sunday night into Monday which will bring it`s
accompanying cold front across Missouri and Illinois on Monday.
Both models do not show much deep moisture in the the atmosphere
during this time period or QPF, so precipitation chances will be
low. It also appears that the really cold air that the models were
showing intruding into the Midwest next weekend on their runs a
couple of days ago are staying over Great Lakes into the far
northeast CONUS. Because of this trend, temperatures over our area
will stay closer to normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
VFR through the period. Initially northwest winds will become
lgt/var tonight when a surface ridge passes overhead, then become
southeasterly after the ridge has moved east of the area.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
318 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Surface high pressure is currently over the area this afternoon,
with clear skies and light winds occurring. Temperatures have
warmed into the low 60s and will top out in the middle 60s for
highs this afternoon. A dry air mass is currently in place and
humidity values into the 20 to 30 percent range will occur into
late this afternoon, but winds will remain on the light side.
An upper level ridge that is currently over the Plains will spread
east over the region tonight and Tuesday. Lows will cool into the
upper 30s to the lower 40s tonight. Highs on Tuesday will warm
into the upper 60s to the lower 70s Tuesday afternoon.
The surface high pressure will push off to the east as surface low
pressure pushes into the Central Plains on Tuesday. This will
result in the pressure gradient tighten across the area. Gusting
south to southeasterly wind will occur Tuesday as gusts to 30 mph
are expected at times. The southerly winds will start to pull
Gulf moisture north into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday,
but the moisture return will take some time to move north into the
area and will remain limited during the day on Tuesday. Therefore,
dry conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon as humidity values
drop to around 30 percent. The gusty winds combined with the warm
and dry air mass will result in elevated fire weather conditions
developing across the entire area Tuesday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
An upper level low and associate surface low will spread northeast
across the Plains Tuesday night then into southern Minnesota
Wednesday evening. As the system tracks east, large scale lift
will start to develop across Oklahoma and Arkansas early Wednesday
morning and spread north into the Missouri Ozarks and
southeastern Kansas Wednesday morning into the early afternoon
hours. The lift will produce showers and thunderstorms which will
likely be scattered in nature at any given time but with lift
continue to spread north across the area the decent coverage in
rain will occur as scattered storms redevelop through out the
morning into the early afternoon hours. There may be the
potential for hail with a few of the stronger storms in the
morning/early afternoon, but the overall severe risk with this
activity will be low.
The morning/early afternoon storms will spread off to the east and
should see a break in activity during the mid to late afternoon
hours. As the surface low spreads northeast a dry line will spread
east across Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday
evening. Clearing is expected to occur ahead of the dry line and
behind the convection expected early in the day. This clearing
will allow instability to increase late in the day with
additional storms expected to develop along the dry line as it
spreads east into extreme southeastern Kansas and western Missouri
late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. Deep layer shear
will be strong with this system and will allow organized updrafts
and the potential for severe weather to occur. Will maintain the
elevated severe weather risk for areas generally along and west of
Highway 65. Storms will continue to spread east across the eastern
Ozarks Wednesday night as the cold front over takes the dry line.
If line segments can develop a severe risk will occur into the
overnight hours and will keep a limit risk for severe storms for
areas generally east of Highway 65 Wednesday night. The showers
and thunderstorms associated with this system should push off to
the east by Thursday morning as the system tracks off to the
northeast.
Temperatures will start to cool some on Thursday as highs around
60 occur. Lows Thursday night into Friday morning will drop into
the middle to upper 30s. A secondary shot of colder air will
spread south into the area Friday into Friday night as highs in
the 50s and lows in the lower to middle 30s occur. A freeze is
possible Friday night into early Saturday morning.
A pleasant weekend is then in store as highs warm into the lower
to middle 60s Saturday and the middle to upper 60s on Sunday under
mostly sunny skies. No rain is expected this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow morning. Winds will
be light and variable this afternoon becoming light southeasterly
by evening. Winds will become gusty from the south-southeast late
tomorrow morning up to 20 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Griffin
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
234 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
High pressure in firm control of the weather pattern this afternoon
as evidenced by latest visible satellite imagery that continues to
show little if any cloud cover across the area. Southerly flow
starting to return to the area this afternoon with temps now hovering
well into the lower to middle 60s across the Lwr Missouri Vly. Dry
and tranquil conditions to continue right into tonight and again
through the day tomorrow with concerns rising once again for marginal
fire weather concerns during the afternoon hrs on Tuesday (see the
below fire wx discussion for more details). In any event...tomorrow
looks to be very similar to today...albeit a bit breezier along with
more cloud cover.
Heading into midweek...attention quickly shifts to large-scale upper
low pressure system spinning across the Northern Rockies and Great
Basin regions this afternoon. With time...fcst models in excellent
agreement that this feature will continue tracking east through the
day on Tuesday...before dropping out of the Central Rockies through
the day on Wednesday. As has been highlighted in recent discussions
along with the latest SPC convective outlooks...overall synoptic
pattern continues to resemble one that could be a large severe
weather producer...but several potentially important details have yet
to be resolved. Without a doubt...the lower Missouri Vly should have
no problem working into the warm sector of Wednesday as all models
show main sfc reflection tracking through central/southern Nebraska.
What remains up to debate this afternoon continues to be
characteristics of the airmass immediately preceding the cold front
which will likely push through the area late Wednesday night.
Additionally...timing differences still remain with the cold
front...with the NAM and ECMWF now the slowest solutions with the
operational GFS being notably faster. Considering the upper-level
wave will approach and move through the Central Plains with pretty
much a neutral tilt...see very little reason to favor the faster GFS
at the present time. Irrespective of timing...the main concerns
continue to be the following:
1) Low clouds and possibly drizzle out ahead of the main front. If
this develops as advertised by a few models...overall instability
generation should be curtailed...
and...
2) Significant capping inversion which all models continue to
advertise per latest fcst soundings. Considering the overall upper
trough pattern...along with expected temperatures aloft...see no
reason why our area wound not be capped for a good portion of the
day.
Considering everything listed above...overall convective threat will
likely be delayed until Wednesday evening when main front moves
through the region. While convection (likely severe) may be
occurring over central KS/NE by late Wed afternoon...this activity
could conceivably be working into a less and less favorable
environment with further eastward progress. If this develops as
advertised...its likely the main severe threat will be confined to
western portions of the CWA. As highlighted yesterday...this system
possesses all the shear in the world with the main questions
remaining the degree in instability generation in the afternoon hrs
across our area. If sufficient instability is able to be
produced...the potential exists for multiple severe wx threats from
both isolated cells to linear (bowing?) lines which may become more
likely as activity works into our area.
Following this system`s departure...cooler weather will invade the
region for the remainder of the work week...albeit warmer that what
earlier model solutions had been advertising. Cool...dry and
seasonable weather to then prevail through the upcoming weekend as
well with persistent northwest flow prevailing overhead.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VFR conditions expected through the forecast cycle. Winds will remain
from the south this afternoon between 5-10 kts...before backing to
the southeast overnight. Winds will strengthen later tomorrow morning
with gusts as high as 20 kts possible by the conclusion of the fcst
period. Clouds will become more widespread after 12z...however no
operational impacts are expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Fire weather concerns will once again increase as sustained 20-foot
winds will increase to roughly 18-22 mph along with higher gusts
(mid/upper 20 mph range) Tuesday afternoon. This combined with
minimum RH levels falling into the lower 30% range will result in
marginal fire weather concerns. Quick discussions with local land
management users suggest that recent precip and green-up of critical
1-hr surface fuels should negate widespread fire weather conditions
from developing. In any event...will allow the midnight shift to
make final decisions but considering the marginal nature of Tuesday
threat...along with the recent green-up of surface fuels...overall
concerns may be best addresses with a fire wx special weather
statement if deemed necessary by later shifts.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1212 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Surface ridge will be over region today with sunny skies and light
winds. Despite starting off rather cold, in the upper 20s to upper
30s, temperatures to warm up into the upper 50s to mid 60s by this
afternoon.
Will keep freeze warning/frost advisory going til 9 am.
Byrd
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
(Tonight)
Surface ridge will initially this evening be near or just east of
the Mississippi River and will slowly edge eastward overnight
tonight. Winds will start off light/variable but gradually turn
predominantly southeasterly from west to east and increase in speed.
Another seasonably cool night looks in store for the bi-state
area...though not as cool as 24 hours prior. Expect lows mainly in
the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. Coldest locations should be across
favored spots across the eastern Ozarks where patchy or areas of
frost may develop.
(Tuesday)
Southeasterly return flow around departing ridge will strengthen
during the day on Tuesday. In addition...midlevel ridge axis
amplifies and moves toward mid-Mississippi Valley which should help
lead to slightly warmer high temperatures compared to that expected
of today. High temperatures are expected to be in the 60s to near
70 degrees. Increasing mid/high level cloudiness may help keep
temperatures in check however.
(Wednesday/Wednesday Night)
Next system of interest will affect the region on Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Strengthening low-level warm/moist advection
beneath diffluence and DCPVA aloft should aid in development of
showers and thunderstorms as early as Wednesday morning. Coverage of
showers/storms however should increase with cold front coming in on
Wednesday night. Synoptic setup looks fairly similar to last
Wednesday`s storm. Timing of cold front (as it looks right now)
being late overnight does not look particularly favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms as the instability wanes with nocturnal
cooling. However...strong deep-layer shear combined with UL dynamics
and associated cooling aloft may produce a few strong/severe
thunderstorms across the area with the best chances across northeast
Missouri during the course of the evening hours.
(Thursday - Sunday)
By Thursday morning...cold front should almost be clearing the CWA
with a lingering chance for showers mainly for south-central
Illinois. A mostly cloudy sky along with low-level cold advection
should yield highs on Thursday 5-15 degrees colder compared to
Wednesday.
The rest of the extended looks dry with slightly below normal
temperatures. Cannot rule out a light freeze for portions of the
area on Friday night/Saturday morning if wind speeds are low enough.
As alluded to by dayshift...this next upcoming weekend looks much
warmer than it did 24-48 hours ago with the core of the arctic air
now looking like it will hit the eastern Great Lakes and the
northeastern United States instead of further southwest. As a
result...temperatures should remain near to slightly below normal
but nothing extreme.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
VFR through the period. Initially northwest winds will become
lgt/var tonight when a surface ridge passes overhead, then become
southeasterly after the ridge has moved east of the area.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1212 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Surface ridge will be over region today with sunny skies and light
winds. Despite starting off rather cold, in the upper 20s to upper
30s, temperatures to warm up into the upper 50s to mid 60s by this
afternoon.
Will keep freeze warning/frost advisory going til 9 am.
Byrd
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
(Tonight)
Surface ridge will initially this evening be near or just east of
the Mississippi River and will slowly edge eastward overnight
tonight. Winds will start off light/variable but gradually turn
predominantly southeasterly from west to east and increase in speed.
Another seasonably cool night looks in store for the bi-state
area...though not as cool as 24 hours prior. Expect lows mainly in
the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. Coldest locations should be across
favored spots across the eastern Ozarks where patchy or areas of
frost may develop.
(Tuesday)
Southeasterly return flow around departing ridge will strengthen
during the day on Tuesday. In addition...midlevel ridge axis
amplifies and moves toward mid-Mississippi Valley which should help
lead to slightly warmer high temperatures compared to that expected
of today. High temperatures are expected to be in the 60s to near
70 degrees. Increasing mid/high level cloudiness may help keep
temperatures in check however.
(Wednesday/Wednesday Night)
Next system of interest will affect the region on Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Strengthening low-level warm/moist advection
beneath diffluence and DCPVA aloft should aid in development of
showers and thunderstorms as early as Wednesday morning. Coverage of
showers/storms however should increase with cold front coming in on
Wednesday night. Synoptic setup looks fairly similar to last
Wednesday`s storm. Timing of cold front (as it looks right now)
being late overnight does not look particularly favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms as the instability wanes with nocturnal
cooling. However...strong deep-layer shear combined with UL dynamics
and associated cooling aloft may produce a few strong/severe
thunderstorms across the area with the best chances across northeast
Missouri during the course of the evening hours.
(Thursday - Sunday)
By Thursday morning...cold front should almost be clearing the CWA
with a lingering chance for showers mainly for south-central
Illinois. A mostly cloudy sky along with low-level cold advection
should yield highs on Thursday 5-15 degrees colder compared to
Wednesday.
The rest of the extended looks dry with slightly below normal
temperatures. Cannot rule out a light freeze for portions of the
area on Friday night/Saturday morning if wind speeds are low enough.
As alluded to by dayshift...this next upcoming weekend looks much
warmer than it did 24-48 hours ago with the core of the arctic air
now looking like it will hit the eastern Great Lakes and the
northeastern United States instead of further southwest. As a
result...temperatures should remain near to slightly below normal
but nothing extreme.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
VFR through the period. Initially northwest winds will become
lgt/var tonight when a surface ridge passes overhead, then become
southeasterly after the ridge has moved east of the area.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Short Term (Today - Tuesday night):
The main concern in the short term will be the cold temperatures
this morning and any impacts on sensitive vegetation. Temperatures
this morning will bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s most
locations. As such a freeze warning is in place this morning until
9AM. Otherwise, temperatures will begin to warm up quickly this
morning with clear skies, increasing southerly winds and upper level
ridging building into the area. Expect highs to top out in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Expect WAA to increase Monday night into Tuesday
with lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Tuesday in
the 60s to near 70. With warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
strong southerly winds, there may be a elevated fire danger on
Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday into Tuesday night models depict a
weak shortwave ejecting out from a broad upper level trough over the
Great Basin region. This weak shortwave will move through the
Central Plains and bring the chance for a few showers or isolated
thunderstorm across extreme northeast Kansas and northern Missouri
Tuesday night.
Medium Range (Wednesday - Thursday night):
This will be the active portion of the forecast period with the
potential for stronger storms on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
strong upper level trough will eject out from the Great Basin into
the Central Plains. This will force a cold front into eastern Kansas
on Wednesday. The GFS and EC develop showers and thunderstorms
across the area earlier in the day Wednesday this would provide for
more cloud cover and would limit instability despite strong shear
and adequate moisture to support severe weather. The NAM is a little
slower and does not develop showers and thunderstorms earlier in the
day. This would lead to much stronger instability to go along with
the aforementioned shear and moisture. Consequently, severe
potential will hinge on timing of the system and whether we have
early day showers limiting instability. In any rate, showers and
thunderstorms will affect the CWA Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s however,
Thursday will be much cooler behind the cold front with highs in the
50s. The upper level trough will move through the area on Thursday
bringing the slight chance for showers to the northern CWA.
Extended Range (Friday through Sunday):
The extended range will feature dry weather with a warming trend. By
Friday deep upper level troughing will cover the CONUS east of the
Rockies. This will lead to cool conditions on Friday with highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday, the broad upper level troughing
begins to shift northeast and we experience height rises across the
area raising highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday the upper
level flow becomes more quasi-zonal which allows temperatures to
further warm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VFR conditions expected through the forecast cycle. Winds will remain
from the south this afternoon between 5-10 kts...before backing to
the southeast overnight. Winds will strengthen later tomorrow morning
with gusts as high as 20 kts possible by the conclusion of the fcst
period. Clouds will become more widespread after 12z...however no
operational impacts are expected.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Short Term (Today - Tuesday night):
The main concern in the short term will be the cold temperatures
this morning and any impacts on sensitive vegetation. Temperatures
this morning will bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s most
locations. As such a freeze warning is in place this morning until
9AM. Otherwise, temperatures will begin to warm up quickly this
morning with clear skies, increasing southerly winds and upper level
ridging building into the area. Expect highs to top out in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Expect WAA to increase Monday night into Tuesday
with lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Tuesday in
the 60s to near 70. With warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
strong southerly winds, there may be a elevated fire danger on
Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday into Tuesday night models depict a
weak shortwave ejecting out from a broad upper level trough over the
Great Basin region. This weak shortwave will move through the
Central Plains and bring the chance for a few showers or isolated
thunderstorm across extreme northeast Kansas and northern Missouri
Tuesday night.
Medium Range (Wednesday - Thursday night):
This will be the active portion of the forecast period with the
potential for stronger storms on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
strong upper level trough will eject out from the Great Basin into
the Central Plains. This will force a cold front into eastern Kansas
on Wednesday. The GFS and EC develop showers and thunderstorms
across the area earlier in the day Wednesday this would provide for
more cloud cover and would limit instability despite strong shear
and adequate moisture to support severe weather. The NAM is a little
slower and does not develop showers and thunderstorms earlier in the
day. This would lead to much stronger instability to go along with
the aforementioned shear and moisture. Consequently, severe
potential will hinge on timing of the system and whether we have
early day showers limiting instability. In any rate, showers and
thunderstorms will affect the CWA Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s however,
Thursday will be much cooler behind the cold front with highs in the
50s. The upper level trough will move through the area on Thursday
bringing the slight chance for showers to the northern CWA.
Extended Range (Friday through Sunday):
The extended range will feature dry weather with a warming trend. By
Friday deep upper level troughing will cover the CONUS east of the
Rockies. This will lead to cool conditions on Friday with highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday, the broad upper level troughing
begins to shift northeast and we experience height rises across the
area raising highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday the upper
level flow becomes more quasi-zonal which allows temperatures to
further warm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VFR conditions expected through the forecast cycle. Winds will remain
from the south this afternoon between 5-10 kts...before backing to
the southeast overnight. Winds will strengthen later tomorrow morning
with gusts as high as 20 kts possible by the conclusion of the fcst
period. Clouds will become more widespread after 12z...however no
operational impacts are expected.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Short Term (Today - Tuesday night):
The main concern in the short term will be the cold temperatures
this morning and any impacts on sensitive vegetation. Temperatures
this morning will bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s most
locations. As such a freeze warning is in place this morning until
9AM. Otherwise, temperatures will begin to warm up quickly this
morning with clear skies, increasing southerly winds and upper level
ridging building into the area. Expect highs to top out in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Expect WAA to increase Monday night into Tuesday
with lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Tuesday in
the 60s to near 70. With warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
strong southerly winds, there may be a elevated fire danger on
Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday into Tuesday night models depict a
weak shortwave ejecting out from a broad upper level trough over the
Great Basin region. This weak shortwave will move through the
Central Plains and bring the chance for a few showers or isolated
thunderstorm across extreme northeast Kansas and northern Missouri
Tuesday night.
Medium Range (Wednesday - Thursday night):
This will be the active portion of the forecast period with the
potential for stronger storms on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
strong upper level trough will eject out from the Great Basin into
the Central Plains. This will force a cold front into eastern Kansas
on Wednesday. The GFS and EC develop showers and thunderstorms
across the area earlier in the day Wednesday this would provide for
more cloud cover and would limit instability despite strong shear
and adequate moisture to support severe weather. The NAM is a little
slower and does not develop showers and thunderstorms earlier in the
day. This would lead to much stronger instability to go along with
the aforementioned shear and moisture. Consequently, severe
potential will hinge on timing of the system and whether we have
early day showers limiting instability. In any rate, showers and
thunderstorms will affect the CWA Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s however,
Thursday will be much cooler behind the cold front with highs in the
50s. The upper level trough will move through the area on Thursday
bringing the slight chance for showers to the northern CWA.
Extended Range (Friday through Sunday):
The extended range will feature dry weather with a warming trend. By
Friday deep upper level troughing will cover the CONUS east of the
Rockies. This will lead to cool conditions on Friday with highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday, the broad upper level troughing
begins to shift northeast and we experience height rises across the
area raising highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday the upper
level flow becomes more quasi-zonal which allows temperatures to
further warm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VFR conditions expected through the forecast cycle. Winds will remain
from the south this afternoon between 5-10 kts...before backing to
the southeast overnight. Winds will strengthen later tomorrow morning
with gusts as high as 20 kts possible by the conclusion of the fcst
period. Clouds will become more widespread after 12z...however no
operational impacts are expected.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Short Term (Today - Tuesday night):
The main concern in the short term will be the cold temperatures
this morning and any impacts on sensitive vegetation. Temperatures
this morning will bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s most
locations. As such a freeze warning is in place this morning until
9AM. Otherwise, temperatures will begin to warm up quickly this
morning with clear skies, increasing southerly winds and upper level
ridging building into the area. Expect highs to top out in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Expect WAA to increase Monday night into Tuesday
with lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Tuesday in
the 60s to near 70. With warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
strong southerly winds, there may be a elevated fire danger on
Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday into Tuesday night models depict a
weak shortwave ejecting out from a broad upper level trough over the
Great Basin region. This weak shortwave will move through the
Central Plains and bring the chance for a few showers or isolated
thunderstorm across extreme northeast Kansas and northern Missouri
Tuesday night.
Medium Range (Wednesday - Thursday night):
This will be the active portion of the forecast period with the
potential for stronger storms on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
strong upper level trough will eject out from the Great Basin into
the Central Plains. This will force a cold front into eastern Kansas
on Wednesday. The GFS and EC develop showers and thunderstorms
across the area earlier in the day Wednesday this would provide for
more cloud cover and would limit instability despite strong shear
and adequate moisture to support severe weather. The NAM is a little
slower and does not develop showers and thunderstorms earlier in the
day. This would lead to much stronger instability to go along with
the aforementioned shear and moisture. Consequently, severe
potential will hinge on timing of the system and whether we have
early day showers limiting instability. In any rate, showers and
thunderstorms will affect the CWA Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s however,
Thursday will be much cooler behind the cold front with highs in the
50s. The upper level trough will move through the area on Thursday
bringing the slight chance for showers to the northern CWA.
Extended Range (Friday through Sunday):
The extended range will feature dry weather with a warming trend. By
Friday deep upper level troughing will cover the CONUS east of the
Rockies. This will lead to cool conditions on Friday with highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday, the broad upper level troughing
begins to shift northeast and we experience height rises across the
area raising highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday the upper
level flow becomes more quasi-zonal which allows temperatures to
further warm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VFR conditions expected through the forecast cycle. Winds will remain
from the south this afternoon between 5-10 kts...before backing to
the southeast overnight. Winds will strengthen later tomorrow morning
with gusts as high as 20 kts possible by the conclusion of the fcst
period. Clouds will become more widespread after 12z...however no
operational impacts are expected.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Short Term (Today - Tuesday night):
The main concern in the short term will be the cold temperatures
this morning and any impacts on sensitive vegetation. Temperatures
this morning will bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s most
locations. As such a freeze warning is in place this morning until
9AM. Otherwise, temperatures will begin to warm up quickly this
morning with clear skies, increasing southerly winds and upper level
ridging building into the area. Expect highs to top out in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Expect WAA to increase Monday night into Tuesday
with lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Tuesday in
the 60s to near 70. With warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
strong southerly winds, there may be a elevated fire danger on
Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday into Tuesday night models depict a
weak shortwave ejecting out from a broad upper level trough over the
Great Basin region. This weak shortwave will move through the
Central Plains and bring the chance for a few showers or isolated
thunderstorm across extreme northeast Kansas and northern Missouri
Tuesday night.
Medium Range (Wednesday - Thursday night):
This will be the active portion of the forecast period with the
potential for stronger storms on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
strong upper level trough will eject out from the Great Basin into
the Central Plains. This will force a cold front into eastern Kansas
on Wednesday. The GFS and EC develop showers and thunderstorms
across the area earlier in the day Wednesday this would provide for
more cloud cover and would limit instability despite strong shear
and adequate moisture to support severe weather. The NAM is a little
slower and does not develop showers and thunderstorms earlier in the
day. This would lead to much stronger instability to go along with
the aforementioned shear and moisture. Consequently, severe
potential will hinge on timing of the system and whether we have
early day showers limiting instability. In any rate, showers and
thunderstorms will affect the CWA Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s however,
Thursday will be much cooler behind the cold front with highs in the
50s. The upper level trough will move through the area on Thursday
bringing the slight chance for showers to the northern CWA.
Extended Range (Friday through Sunday):
The extended range will feature dry weather with a warming trend. By
Friday deep upper level troughing will cover the CONUS east of the
Rockies. This will lead to cool conditions on Friday with highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday, the broad upper level troughing
begins to shift northeast and we experience height rises across the
area raising highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday the upper
level flow becomes more quasi-zonal which allows temperatures to
further warm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VFR conditions expected through the forecast cycle. Winds will remain
from the south this afternoon between 5-10 kts...before backing to
the southeast overnight. Winds will strengthen later tomorrow morning
with gusts as high as 20 kts possible by the conclusion of the fcst
period. Clouds will become more widespread after 12z...however no
operational impacts are expected.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1202 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
...18Z Aviation Forecast Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Early this morning, skies had cleared across the forecast area as
high pressure settled across the area. Under the clear skies and
light winds, temperatures have dropped into the lower to middle 30s.
After a cold start to the day, the surface high will move off to the
east this afternoon, resulting in a more southerly wind component.
With the dry air in place, and ample sunshine temperatures will
rebound rather quickly back to near seasonal normals in the lower to
middle 60s.
Southerly low level flow, albeit light, will hold temperatures up a
little tonight from this mornings cold readings despite clear
skies. The coldest readings will be across the eastern Ozarks
where lows will drop into the middle 30s, and can not rule out
some patchy frost in some of the low lying areas. Otherwise, upper
30s to lower 40s will be common across the remainder of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Stronger southerly flow establishes itself on Tuesday ahead of
rather vigorous storm system evolving over the inter-mountain
west and High Plains. Despite moisture being advected northward,
winds look to rather strong and relative humidities dropping into
the 25 to 35 percent range leading to elevated fire weather
concerns.
Attention then turns to the evolution of the inter-mountain deep
trough that begins to push out into the Plains. There still
remains some timing issues with the surface features between the
NAM and GFS with the GFS and ECMWF the more progressive of the
model suite. Overall, CAPE/Shear parameters look sufficient to
support a limited to elevated risk of strong to severe storms.
Confidence is medium with regards to this system, but low in
discerning storm mode. Based on position of cold front/dry line
and plume of higher instabilities from current suite of models,
highest risk looks to be west of highway 65 and this is where
current SPC day 3 outlook highlights a slight risk.
The more progressive and preferred solutions would push system
out late Wednesday night with dry, quiet and cooler day for
Thursday into Saturday, with near or just slightly below seasonal
normals. Medium range models indicating upper flow to become
slightly more zonal on Sunday which looks to begin a warming
trend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow morning. Winds will
be light and variable this afternoon becoming light southeasterly
by evening. Winds will become gusty from the south-southeast late
tomorrow morning up to 20 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Griffin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1202 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
...18Z Aviation Forecast Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Early this morning, skies had cleared across the forecast area as
high pressure settled across the area. Under the clear skies and
light winds, temperatures have dropped into the lower to middle 30s.
After a cold start to the day, the surface high will move off to the
east this afternoon, resulting in a more southerly wind component.
With the dry air in place, and ample sunshine temperatures will
rebound rather quickly back to near seasonal normals in the lower to
middle 60s.
Southerly low level flow, albeit light, will hold temperatures up a
little tonight from this mornings cold readings despite clear
skies. The coldest readings will be across the eastern Ozarks
where lows will drop into the middle 30s, and can not rule out
some patchy frost in some of the low lying areas. Otherwise, upper
30s to lower 40s will be common across the remainder of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Stronger southerly flow establishes itself on Tuesday ahead of
rather vigorous storm system evolving over the inter-mountain
west and High Plains. Despite moisture being advected northward,
winds look to rather strong and relative humidities dropping into
the 25 to 35 percent range leading to elevated fire weather
concerns.
Attention then turns to the evolution of the inter-mountain deep
trough that begins to push out into the Plains. There still
remains some timing issues with the surface features between the
NAM and GFS with the GFS and ECMWF the more progressive of the
model suite. Overall, CAPE/Shear parameters look sufficient to
support a limited to elevated risk of strong to severe storms.
Confidence is medium with regards to this system, but low in
discerning storm mode. Based on position of cold front/dry line
and plume of higher instabilities from current suite of models,
highest risk looks to be west of highway 65 and this is where
current SPC day 3 outlook highlights a slight risk.
The more progressive and preferred solutions would push system
out late Wednesday night with dry, quiet and cooler day for
Thursday into Saturday, with near or just slightly below seasonal
normals. Medium range models indicating upper flow to become
slightly more zonal on Sunday which looks to begin a warming
trend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow morning. Winds will
be light and variable this afternoon becoming light southeasterly
by evening. Winds will become gusty from the south-southeast late
tomorrow morning up to 20 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Griffin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1202 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
...18Z Aviation Forecast Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Early this morning, skies had cleared across the forecast area as
high pressure settled across the area. Under the clear skies and
light winds, temperatures have dropped into the lower to middle 30s.
After a cold start to the day, the surface high will move off to the
east this afternoon, resulting in a more southerly wind component.
With the dry air in place, and ample sunshine temperatures will
rebound rather quickly back to near seasonal normals in the lower to
middle 60s.
Southerly low level flow, albeit light, will hold temperatures up a
little tonight from this mornings cold readings despite clear
skies. The coldest readings will be across the eastern Ozarks
where lows will drop into the middle 30s, and can not rule out
some patchy frost in some of the low lying areas. Otherwise, upper
30s to lower 40s will be common across the remainder of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Stronger southerly flow establishes itself on Tuesday ahead of
rather vigorous storm system evolving over the inter-mountain
west and High Plains. Despite moisture being advected northward,
winds look to rather strong and relative humidities dropping into
the 25 to 35 percent range leading to elevated fire weather
concerns.
Attention then turns to the evolution of the inter-mountain deep
trough that begins to push out into the Plains. There still
remains some timing issues with the surface features between the
NAM and GFS with the GFS and ECMWF the more progressive of the
model suite. Overall, CAPE/Shear parameters look sufficient to
support a limited to elevated risk of strong to severe storms.
Confidence is medium with regards to this system, but low in
discerning storm mode. Based on position of cold front/dry line
and plume of higher instabilities from current suite of models,
highest risk looks to be west of highway 65 and this is where
current SPC day 3 outlook highlights a slight risk.
The more progressive and preferred solutions would push system
out late Wednesday night with dry, quiet and cooler day for
Thursday into Saturday, with near or just slightly below seasonal
normals. Medium range models indicating upper flow to become
slightly more zonal on Sunday which looks to begin a warming
trend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow morning. Winds will
be light and variable this afternoon becoming light southeasterly
by evening. Winds will become gusty from the south-southeast late
tomorrow morning up to 20 knots.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Griffin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
654 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Early this morning, skies had cleared across the forecast area as
high pressure settled across the area. Under the clear skies and
light winds, temperatures have dropped into the lower to middle 30s.
After a cold start to the day, the surface high will move off to the
east this afternoon, resulting in a more southerly wind component.
With the dry air in place, and ample sunshine temperatures will
rebound rather quickly back to near seasonal normals in the lower to
middle 60s.
Southerly low level flow, albeit light, will hold temperatures up a
little tonight from this mornings cold readings despite clear
skies. The coldest readings will be across the eastern Ozarks
where lows will drop into the middle 30s, and can not rule out
some patchy frost in some of the low lying areas. Otherwise, upper
30s to lower 40s will be common across the remainder of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Stronger southerly flow establishes itself on Tuesday ahead of
rather vigorous storm system evolving over the inter-mountain
west and High Plains. Despite moisture being advected northward,
winds look to rather strong and relative humidities dropping into
the 25 to 35 percent range leading to elevated fire weather
concerns.
Attention then turns to the evolution of the inter-mountain deep
trough that begins to push out into the Plains. There still
remains some timing issues with the surface features between the
NAM and GFS with the GFS and ECMWF the more progressive of the
model suite. Overall, CAPE/Shear parameters look sufficient to
support a limited to elevated risk of strong to severe storms.
Confidence is medium with regards to this system, but low in
discerning storm mode. Based on position of cold front/dry line
and plume of higher instabilities from current suite of models,
highest risk looks to be west of highway 65 and this is where
current SPC day 3 outlook highlights a slight risk.
The more progressive and preferred solutions would push system
out late Wednesday night with dry, quiet and cooler day for
Thursday into Saturday, with near or just slightly below seasonal
normals. Medium range models indicating upper flow to become
slightly more zonal on Sunday which looks to begin a warming
trend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Other than some patchy fog over the
next couple of hours, vfr conditions are expected with high
pressure passing through then off to the east today/tonight.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ058-071-082-
083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>057-
066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
654 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Early this morning, skies had cleared across the forecast area as
high pressure settled across the area. Under the clear skies and
light winds, temperatures have dropped into the lower to middle 30s.
After a cold start to the day, the surface high will move off to the
east this afternoon, resulting in a more southerly wind component.
With the dry air in place, and ample sunshine temperatures will
rebound rather quickly back to near seasonal normals in the lower to
middle 60s.
Southerly low level flow, albeit light, will hold temperatures up a
little tonight from this mornings cold readings despite clear
skies. The coldest readings will be across the eastern Ozarks
where lows will drop into the middle 30s, and can not rule out
some patchy frost in some of the low lying areas. Otherwise, upper
30s to lower 40s will be common across the remainder of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Stronger southerly flow establishes itself on Tuesday ahead of
rather vigorous storm system evolving over the inter-mountain
west and High Plains. Despite moisture being advected northward,
winds look to rather strong and relative humidities dropping into
the 25 to 35 percent range leading to elevated fire weather
concerns.
Attention then turns to the evolution of the inter-mountain deep
trough that begins to push out into the Plains. There still
remains some timing issues with the surface features between the
NAM and GFS with the GFS and ECMWF the more progressive of the
model suite. Overall, CAPE/Shear parameters look sufficient to
support a limited to elevated risk of strong to severe storms.
Confidence is medium with regards to this system, but low in
discerning storm mode. Based on position of cold front/dry line
and plume of higher instabilities from current suite of models,
highest risk looks to be west of highway 65 and this is where
current SPC day 3 outlook highlights a slight risk.
The more progressive and preferred solutions would push system
out late Wednesday night with dry, quiet and cooler day for
Thursday into Saturday, with near or just slightly below seasonal
normals. Medium range models indicating upper flow to become
slightly more zonal on Sunday which looks to begin a warming
trend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Other than some patchy fog over the
next couple of hours, vfr conditions are expected with high
pressure passing through then off to the east today/tonight.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ058-071-082-
083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>057-
066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
654 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Early this morning, skies had cleared across the forecast area as
high pressure settled across the area. Under the clear skies and
light winds, temperatures have dropped into the lower to middle 30s.
After a cold start to the day, the surface high will move off to the
east this afternoon, resulting in a more southerly wind component.
With the dry air in place, and ample sunshine temperatures will
rebound rather quickly back to near seasonal normals in the lower to
middle 60s.
Southerly low level flow, albeit light, will hold temperatures up a
little tonight from this mornings cold readings despite clear
skies. The coldest readings will be across the eastern Ozarks
where lows will drop into the middle 30s, and can not rule out
some patchy frost in some of the low lying areas. Otherwise, upper
30s to lower 40s will be common across the remainder of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Stronger southerly flow establishes itself on Tuesday ahead of
rather vigorous storm system evolving over the inter-mountain
west and High Plains. Despite moisture being advected northward,
winds look to rather strong and relative humidities dropping into
the 25 to 35 percent range leading to elevated fire weather
concerns.
Attention then turns to the evolution of the inter-mountain deep
trough that begins to push out into the Plains. There still
remains some timing issues with the surface features between the
NAM and GFS with the GFS and ECMWF the more progressive of the
model suite. Overall, CAPE/Shear parameters look sufficient to
support a limited to elevated risk of strong to severe storms.
Confidence is medium with regards to this system, but low in
discerning storm mode. Based on position of cold front/dry line
and plume of higher instabilities from current suite of models,
highest risk looks to be west of highway 65 and this is where
current SPC day 3 outlook highlights a slight risk.
The more progressive and preferred solutions would push system
out late Wednesday night with dry, quiet and cooler day for
Thursday into Saturday, with near or just slightly below seasonal
normals. Medium range models indicating upper flow to become
slightly more zonal on Sunday which looks to begin a warming
trend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Other than some patchy fog over the
next couple of hours, vfr conditions are expected with high
pressure passing through then off to the east today/tonight.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ058-071-082-
083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>057-
066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
653 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Surface ridge will be over region today with sunny skies and light
winds. Despite starting off rather cold, in the upper 20s to upper
30s, temperatures to warm up into the upper 50s to mid 60s by this
afternoon.
Will keep freeze warning/frost advisory going til 9 am.
Byrd
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
(Tonight)
Surface ridge will initially this evening be near or just east of
the Mississippi River and will slowly edge eastward overnight
tonight. Winds will start off light/variable but gradually turn
predominantly southeasterly from west to east and increase in speed.
Another seasonably cool night looks in store for the bi-state
area...though not as cool as 24 hours prior. Expect lows mainly in
the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. Coldest locations should be across
favored spots across the eastern Ozarks where patchy or areas of
frost may develop.
(Tuesday)
Southeasterly return flow around departing ridge will strengthen
during the day on Tuesday. In addition...midlevel ridge axis
amplifies and moves toward mid-Mississippi Valley which should help
lead to slightly warmer high temperatures compared to that expected
of today. High temperatues are expected to be in the 60s to near 70
degrees. Increasing mid/high level cloudiness may help keep
temperatures in check however.
(Wednesday/Wednesday Night)
Next system of interest will affect the region on Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Strengthening low-level warm/moist advection
beneath diffluence and DCPVA aloft should aid in development of
showers and thunderstorms as early as Wednesday morning. Coverage of
showers/storms however should increase with cold front coming in on
Wednesday night. Synoptic setup looks fairly similar to last
Wednesday`s storm. Timing of cold front (as it looks right now)
being late overnight does not look particularly favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms as the instability wanes with nocturnal
cooling. However...strong deep-layer shear combined with UL dynamics
and associated cooling aloft may produce a few strong/severe
thunderstorms across the area with the best chances across northeast
Missouri during the course of the evening hours.
(Thursday - Sunday)
By Thursday morning...cold front should almost be clearing the CWA
with a lingering chance for showers mainly for south-central
Illinois. A mostly cloudy sky along with low-level cold advection
should yield highs on Thursday 5-15 degrees colder compared to
Wednesday.
The rest of the extended looks dry with slightly below normal
temperatures. Cannot rule out a light freeze for portions of the
area on Friday night/Saturday morning if wind speeds are low enough.
As alluded to by dayshift...this next upcoming weekend looks much
warmer than it did 24-48 hours ago with the core of the arctic air
now looking like it will hit the eastern Great Lakes and the
northeastern United States instead of further southwest. As a
result...temperatures should remain near to slightly below normal
but nothing extreme.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Light west winds to become light and variable later today as
surface ridge builds in. Then winds to pickup a bit late tonight
from the east to southeast. Another issue is some patchy fog, so
added mention to KUIN and KSUS through about 13z Monday. Otherwise,
vfr conditions to prevail through forecast period.
Specifics for KSTL:
West winds to become light and variable by 00z Tuesday as surface
ridge builds in. Then winds to pickup a bit late tonight from the
east to southeast. Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail through
forecast period.
Byrd
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 61 41 65 51 / 0 0 0 5
Quincy 59 39 64 46 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 63 41 68 49 / 0 0 0 10
Jefferson City 64 40 67 50 / 0 0 0 5
Salem 59 38 63 46 / 0 0 0 0
Farmington 62 34 64 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby
MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
653 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Surface ridge will be over region today with sunny skies and light
winds. Despite starting off rather cold, in the upper 20s to upper
30s, temperatures to warm up into the upper 50s to mid 60s by this
afternoon.
Will keep freeze warning/frost advisory going til 9 am.
Byrd
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
(Tonight)
Surface ridge will initially this evening be near or just east of
the Mississippi River and will slowly edge eastward overnight
tonight. Winds will start off light/variable but gradually turn
predominantly southeasterly from west to east and increase in speed.
Another seasonably cool night looks in store for the bi-state
area...though not as cool as 24 hours prior. Expect lows mainly in
the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. Coldest locations should be across
favored spots across the eastern Ozarks where patchy or areas of
frost may develop.
(Tuesday)
Southeasterly return flow around departing ridge will strengthen
during the day on Tuesday. In addition...midlevel ridge axis
amplifies and moves toward mid-Mississippi Valley which should help
lead to slightly warmer high temperatures compared to that expected
of today. High temperatues are expected to be in the 60s to near 70
degrees. Increasing mid/high level cloudiness may help keep
temperatures in check however.
(Wednesday/Wednesday Night)
Next system of interest will affect the region on Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Strengthening low-level warm/moist advection
beneath diffluence and DCPVA aloft should aid in development of
showers and thunderstorms as early as Wednesday morning. Coverage of
showers/storms however should increase with cold front coming in on
Wednesday night. Synoptic setup looks fairly similar to last
Wednesday`s storm. Timing of cold front (as it looks right now)
being late overnight does not look particularly favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms as the instability wanes with nocturnal
cooling. However...strong deep-layer shear combined with UL dynamics
and associated cooling aloft may produce a few strong/severe
thunderstorms across the area with the best chances across northeast
Missouri during the course of the evening hours.
(Thursday - Sunday)
By Thursday morning...cold front should almost be clearing the CWA
with a lingering chance for showers mainly for south-central
Illinois. A mostly cloudy sky along with low-level cold advection
should yield highs on Thursday 5-15 degrees colder compared to
Wednesday.
The rest of the extended looks dry with slightly below normal
temperatures. Cannot rule out a light freeze for portions of the
area on Friday night/Saturday morning if wind speeds are low enough.
As alluded to by dayshift...this next upcoming weekend looks much
warmer than it did 24-48 hours ago with the core of the arctic air
now looking like it will hit the eastern Great Lakes and the
northeastern United States instead of further southwest. As a
result...temperatures should remain near to slightly below normal
but nothing extreme.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Light west winds to become light and variable later today as
surface ridge builds in. Then winds to pickup a bit late tonight
from the east to southeast. Another issue is some patchy fog, so
added mention to KUIN and KSUS through about 13z Monday. Otherwise,
vfr conditions to prevail through forecast period.
Specifics for KSTL:
West winds to become light and variable by 00z Tuesday as surface
ridge builds in. Then winds to pickup a bit late tonight from the
east to southeast. Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail through
forecast period.
Byrd
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 61 41 65 51 / 0 0 0 5
Quincy 59 39 64 46 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 63 41 68 49 / 0 0 0 10
Jefferson City 64 40 67 50 / 0 0 0 5
Salem 59 38 63 46 / 0 0 0 0
Farmington 62 34 64 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby
MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
653 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Surface ridge will be over region today with sunny skies and light
winds. Despite starting off rather cold, in the upper 20s to upper
30s, temperatures to warm up into the upper 50s to mid 60s by this
afternoon.
Will keep freeze warning/frost advisory going til 9 am.
Byrd
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
(Tonight)
Surface ridge will initially this evening be near or just east of
the Mississippi River and will slowly edge eastward overnight
tonight. Winds will start off light/variable but gradually turn
predominantly southeasterly from west to east and increase in speed.
Another seasonably cool night looks in store for the bi-state
area...though not as cool as 24 hours prior. Expect lows mainly in
the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. Coldest locations should be across
favored spots across the eastern Ozarks where patchy or areas of
frost may develop.
(Tuesday)
Southeasterly return flow around departing ridge will strengthen
during the day on Tuesday. In addition...midlevel ridge axis
amplifies and moves toward mid-Mississippi Valley which should help
lead to slightly warmer high temperatures compared to that expected
of today. High temperatues are expected to be in the 60s to near 70
degrees. Increasing mid/high level cloudiness may help keep
temperatures in check however.
(Wednesday/Wednesday Night)
Next system of interest will affect the region on Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Strengthening low-level warm/moist advection
beneath diffluence and DCPVA aloft should aid in development of
showers and thunderstorms as early as Wednesday morning. Coverage of
showers/storms however should increase with cold front coming in on
Wednesday night. Synoptic setup looks fairly similar to last
Wednesday`s storm. Timing of cold front (as it looks right now)
being late overnight does not look particularly favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms as the instability wanes with nocturnal
cooling. However...strong deep-layer shear combined with UL dynamics
and associated cooling aloft may produce a few strong/severe
thunderstorms across the area with the best chances across northeast
Missouri during the course of the evening hours.
(Thursday - Sunday)
By Thursday morning...cold front should almost be clearing the CWA
with a lingering chance for showers mainly for south-central
Illinois. A mostly cloudy sky along with low-level cold advection
should yield highs on Thursday 5-15 degrees colder compared to
Wednesday.
The rest of the extended looks dry with slightly below normal
temperatures. Cannot rule out a light freeze for portions of the
area on Friday night/Saturday morning if wind speeds are low enough.
As alluded to by dayshift...this next upcoming weekend looks much
warmer than it did 24-48 hours ago with the core of the arctic air
now looking like it will hit the eastern Great Lakes and the
northeastern United States instead of further southwest. As a
result...temperatures should remain near to slightly below normal
but nothing extreme.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Light west winds to become light and variable later today as
surface ridge builds in. Then winds to pickup a bit late tonight
from the east to southeast. Another issue is some patchy fog, so
added mention to KUIN and KSUS through about 13z Monday. Otherwise,
vfr conditions to prevail through forecast period.
Specifics for KSTL:
West winds to become light and variable by 00z Tuesday as surface
ridge builds in. Then winds to pickup a bit late tonight from the
east to southeast. Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail through
forecast period.
Byrd
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 61 41 65 51 / 0 0 0 5
Quincy 59 39 64 46 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 63 41 68 49 / 0 0 0 10
Jefferson City 64 40 67 50 / 0 0 0 5
Salem 59 38 63 46 / 0 0 0 0
Farmington 62 34 64 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby
MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
610 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Short Term (Today - Tuesday night):
The main concern in the short term will be the cold temperatures
this morning and any impacts on sensitive vegetation. Temperatures
this morning will bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s most
locations. As such a freeze warning is in place this morning until
9AM. Otherwise, temperatures will begin to warm up quickly this
morning with clear skies, increasing southerly winds and upper level
ridging building into the area. Expect highs to top out in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Expect WAA to increase Monday night into Tuesday
with lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Tuesday in
the 60s to near 70. With warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
strong southerly winds, there may be a elevated fire danger on
Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday into Tuesday night models depict a
weak shortwave ejecting out from a broad upper level trough over the
Great Basin region. This weak shortwave will move through the
Central Plains and bring the chance for a few showers or isolated
thunderstorm across extreme northeast Kansas and northern Missouri
Tuesday night.
Medium Range (Wednesday - Thursday night):
This will be the active portion of the forecast period with the
potential for stronger storms on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
strong upper level trough will eject out from the Great Basin into
the Central Plains. This will force a cold front into eastern Kansas
on Wednesday. The GFS and EC develop showers and thunderstorms
across the area earlier in the day Wednesday this would provide for
more cloud cover and would limit instability despite strong shear
and adequate moisture to support severe weather. The NAM is a little
slower and does not develop showers and thunderstorms earlier in the
day. This would lead to much stronger instability to go along with
the aforementioned shear and moisture. Consequently, severe
potential will hinge on timing of the system and whether we have
early day showers limiting instability. In any rate, showers and
thunderstorms will affect the CWA Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s however,
Thursday will be much cooler behind the cold front with highs in the
50s. The upper level trough will move through the area on Thursday
bringing the slight chance for showers to the northern CWA.
Extended Range (Friday through Sunday):
The extended range will feature dry weather with a warming trend. By
Friday deep upper level troughing will cover the CONUS east of the
Rockies. This will lead to cool conditions on Friday with highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday, the broad upper level troughing
begins to shift northeast and we experience height rises across the
area raising highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday the upper
level flow becomes more quasi-zonal which allows temperatures to
further warm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with just few-sct high clouds.
Winds will be light this morning increasing out of the south to
10kts later this morning. Winds this evening will back to the SE and
remain around 10kts.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ013>017-
020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
610 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Short Term (Today - Tuesday night):
The main concern in the short term will be the cold temperatures
this morning and any impacts on sensitive vegetation. Temperatures
this morning will bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s most
locations. As such a freeze warning is in place this morning until
9AM. Otherwise, temperatures will begin to warm up quickly this
morning with clear skies, increasing southerly winds and upper level
ridging building into the area. Expect highs to top out in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Expect WAA to increase Monday night into Tuesday
with lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Tuesday in
the 60s to near 70. With warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
strong southerly winds, there may be a elevated fire danger on
Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday into Tuesday night models depict a
weak shortwave ejecting out from a broad upper level trough over the
Great Basin region. This weak shortwave will move through the
Central Plains and bring the chance for a few showers or isolated
thunderstorm across extreme northeast Kansas and northern Missouri
Tuesday night.
Medium Range (Wednesday - Thursday night):
This will be the active portion of the forecast period with the
potential for stronger storms on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
strong upper level trough will eject out from the Great Basin into
the Central Plains. This will force a cold front into eastern Kansas
on Wednesday. The GFS and EC develop showers and thunderstorms
across the area earlier in the day Wednesday this would provide for
more cloud cover and would limit instability despite strong shear
and adequate moisture to support severe weather. The NAM is a little
slower and does not develop showers and thunderstorms earlier in the
day. This would lead to much stronger instability to go along with
the aforementioned shear and moisture. Consequently, severe
potential will hinge on timing of the system and whether we have
early day showers limiting instability. In any rate, showers and
thunderstorms will affect the CWA Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s however,
Thursday will be much cooler behind the cold front with highs in the
50s. The upper level trough will move through the area on Thursday
bringing the slight chance for showers to the northern CWA.
Extended Range (Friday through Sunday):
The extended range will feature dry weather with a warming trend. By
Friday deep upper level troughing will cover the CONUS east of the
Rockies. This will lead to cool conditions on Friday with highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday, the broad upper level troughing
begins to shift northeast and we experience height rises across the
area raising highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday the upper
level flow becomes more quasi-zonal which allows temperatures to
further warm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with just few-sct high clouds.
Winds will be light this morning increasing out of the south to
10kts later this morning. Winds this evening will back to the SE and
remain around 10kts.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ013>017-
020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
610 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Short Term (Today - Tuesday night):
The main concern in the short term will be the cold temperatures
this morning and any impacts on sensitive vegetation. Temperatures
this morning will bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s most
locations. As such a freeze warning is in place this morning until
9AM. Otherwise, temperatures will begin to warm up quickly this
morning with clear skies, increasing southerly winds and upper level
ridging building into the area. Expect highs to top out in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Expect WAA to increase Monday night into Tuesday
with lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Tuesday in
the 60s to near 70. With warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
strong southerly winds, there may be a elevated fire danger on
Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday into Tuesday night models depict a
weak shortwave ejecting out from a broad upper level trough over the
Great Basin region. This weak shortwave will move through the
Central Plains and bring the chance for a few showers or isolated
thunderstorm across extreme northeast Kansas and northern Missouri
Tuesday night.
Medium Range (Wednesday - Thursday night):
This will be the active portion of the forecast period with the
potential for stronger storms on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
strong upper level trough will eject out from the Great Basin into
the Central Plains. This will force a cold front into eastern Kansas
on Wednesday. The GFS and EC develop showers and thunderstorms
across the area earlier in the day Wednesday this would provide for
more cloud cover and would limit instability despite strong shear
and adequate moisture to support severe weather. The NAM is a little
slower and does not develop showers and thunderstorms earlier in the
day. This would lead to much stronger instability to go along with
the aforementioned shear and moisture. Consequently, severe
potential will hinge on timing of the system and whether we have
early day showers limiting instability. In any rate, showers and
thunderstorms will affect the CWA Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s however,
Thursday will be much cooler behind the cold front with highs in the
50s. The upper level trough will move through the area on Thursday
bringing the slight chance for showers to the northern CWA.
Extended Range (Friday through Sunday):
The extended range will feature dry weather with a warming trend. By
Friday deep upper level troughing will cover the CONUS east of the
Rockies. This will lead to cool conditions on Friday with highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday, the broad upper level troughing
begins to shift northeast and we experience height rises across the
area raising highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday the upper
level flow becomes more quasi-zonal which allows temperatures to
further warm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with just few-sct high clouds.
Winds will be light this morning increasing out of the south to
10kts later this morning. Winds this evening will back to the SE and
remain around 10kts.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ013>017-
020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
323 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Surface ridge will be over region today with sunny skies and light
winds. Despite starting off rather cold, in the upper 20s to upper
30s, temperatures to warm up into the upper 50s to mid 60s by this
afternoon.
Will keep freeze warning/frost advisory going til 9 am.
Byrd
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
(Tonight)
Surface ridge will initially this evening be near or just east of
the Mississippi River and will slowly edge eastward overnight
tonight. Winds will start off light/variable but gradually turn
predominantly southeasterly from west to east and increase in speed.
Another seasonably cool night looks in store for the bi-state
area...though not as cool as 24 hours prior. Expect lows mainly in
the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. Coldest locations should be across
favored spots across the eastern Ozarks where patchy or areas of
frost may develop.
(Tuesday)
Southeasterly return flow around departing ridge will strengthen
during the day on Tuesday. In addition...midlevel ridge axis
amplifies and moves toward mid-Mississippi Valley which should help
lead to slightly warmer high temperatures compared to that expected
of today. High temperatues are expected to be in the 60s to near 70
degrees. Increasing mid/high level cloudiness may help keep
temperatures in check however.
(Wednesday/Wednesday Night)
Next system of interest will affect the region on Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Strengthening low-level warm/moist advection
beneath diffluence and DCPVA aloft should aid in development of
showers and thunderstorms as early as Wednesday morning. Coverage of
showers/storms however should increase with cold front coming in on
Wednesday night. Synoptic setup looks fairly similar to last
Wednesday`s storm. Timing of cold front (as it looks right now)
being late overnight does not look particularly favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms as the instability wanes with nocturnal
cooling. However...strong deep-layer shear combined with UL dynamics
and associated cooling aloft may produce a few strong/severe
thunderstorms across the area with the best chances across northeast
Missouri during the course of the evening hours.
(Thursday - Sunday)
By Thursday morning...cold front should almost be clearing the CWA
with a lingering chance for showers mainly for south-central
Illinois. A mostly cloudy sky along with low-level cold advection
should yield highs on Thursday 5-15 degrees colder compared to
Wednesday.
The rest of the extended looks dry with slightly below normal
temperatures. Cannot rule out a light freeze for portions of the
area on Friday night/Saturday morning if wind speeds are low enough.
As alluded to by dayshift...this next upcoming weekend looks much
warmer than it did 24-48 hours ago with the core of the arctic air
now looking like it will hit the eastern Great Lakes and the
northeastern United States instead of further southwest. As a
result...temperatures should remain near to slightly below normal
but nothing extreme.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
MVFR clouds have cleared out of all the taf sites late this
evening, with complete clearing of all the clouds expected in the
St Louis metro by 06Z late tonight or shortly thereafter as
surface ridge extending from western IA southwest into TX
continues to build eastward into MO. A clear sky for the remainder
of the forecast period with weak west or northwest winds late
tonight and Monday, becoming light by Monday evening as the
surface ridge moves eastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The sky should completely clear out by 06Z
late tonight or shortly thereafter. A west or northwest wind late
tonight and Monday, then a light east or northeast wind Monday
night as the surface ridge shifts east of the area.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 61 41 65 51 / 0 0 0 5
Quincy 59 39 64 46 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 63 41 68 49 / 0 0 0 10
Jefferson City 64 40 67 50 / 0 0 0 5
Salem 59 38 63 46 / 0 0 0 0
Farmington 62 34 64 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby
MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
318 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Short Term (Today - Tuesday night):
The main concern in the short term will be the cold temperatures
this morning and any impacts on sensitive vegetation. Temperatures
this morning will bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s most
locations. As such a freeze warning is in place this morning until
9AM. Otherwise, temperatures will begin to warm up quickly this
morning with clear skies, increasing southerly winds and upper level
ridging building into the area. Expect highs to top out in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Expect WAA to increase Monday night into Tuesday
with lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Tuesday in
the 60s to near 70. With warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
strong southerly winds, there may be a elevated fire danger on
Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday into Tuesday night models depict a
weak shortwave ejecting out from a broad upper level trough over the
Great Basin region. This weak shortwave will move through the
Central Plains and bring the chance for a few showers or isolated
thunderstorm across extreme northeast Kansas and northern Missouri
Tuesday night.
Medium Range (Wednesday - Thursday night):
This will be the active portion of the forecast period with the
potential for stronger storms on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
strong upper level trough will eject out from the Great Basin into
the Central Plains. This will force a cold front into eastern Kansas
on Wednesday. The GFS and EC develop showers and thunderstorms
across the area earlier in the day Wednesday this would provide for
more cloud cover and would limit instability despite strong shear
and adequate moisture to support severe weather. The NAM is a little
slower and does not develop showers and thunderstorms earlier in the
day. This would lead to much stronger instability to go along with
the aforementioned shear and moisture. Consequently, severe
potential will hinge on timing of the system and whether we have
early day showers limiting instability. In any rate, showers and
thunderstorms will affect the CWA Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s however,
Thursday will be much cooler behind the cold front with highs in the
50s. The upper level trough will move through the area on Thursday
bringing the slight chance for showers to the northern CWA.
Extended Range (Friday through Sunday):
The extended range will feature dry weather with a warming trend. By
Friday deep upper level troughing will cover the CONUS east of the
Rockies. This will lead to cool conditions on Friday with highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday, the broad upper level troughing
begins to shift northeast and we experience height rises across the
area raising highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday the upper
level flow becomes more quasi-zonal which allows temperatures to
further warm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Surface high pressure has been settling into the vicinity, allowing
for variable and light to calm winds. VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the TAF period with some upper-level clouds meandering in
overhead toward the end of the period. Look for southerly winds to
pickup a bit after sunrise Monday, becoming more southeasterly by
tomorrow evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ013>017-
020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
316 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Early this morning, skies had cleared across the forecast area as
high pressure settled across the area. Under the clear skies and
light winds, temperatures have dropped into the lower to middle 30s.
After a cold start to the day, the surface high will move off to the
east this afternoon, resulting in a more southerly wind component.
With the dry air in place, and ample sunshine temperatures will
rebound rather quickly back to near seasonal normals in the lower to
middle 60s.
Southerly low level flow, albeit light, will hold temperatures up a
little tonight from this mornings cold readings despite clear
skies. The coldest readings will be across the eastern Ozarks
where lows will drop into the middle 30s, and can not rule out
some patchy frost in some of the low lying areas. Otherwise, upper
30s to lower 40s will be common across the remainder of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Stronger southerly flow establishes itself on Tuesday ahead of
rather vigorous storm system evolving over the inter-mountain
west and High Plains. Despite moisture being advected northward,
winds look to rather strong and relative humidities dropping into
the 25 to 35 percent range leading to elevated fire weather
concerns.
Attention then turns to the evolution of the inter-mountain deep
trough that begins to push out into the Plains. There still
remains some timing issues with the surface features between the
NAM and GFS with the GFS and ECMWF the more progressive of the
model suite. Overall, CAPE/Shear parameters look sufficient to
support a limited to elevated risk of strong to severe storms.
Confidence is medium with regards to this system, but low in
discerning storm mode. Based on position of cold front/dry line
and plume of higher instabilities from current suite of models,
highest risk looks to be west of highway 65 and this is where
current SPC day 3 outlook highlights a slight risk.
The more progressive and preferred solutions would push system
out late Wednesday night with dry, quiet and cooler day for
Thursday into Saturday, with near or just slightly below seasonal
normals. Medium range models indicating upper flow to become
slightly more zonal on Sunday which looks to begin a warming
trend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through Monday
evening. Winds will be light and variable overnight and will
become light out of the south to southeast on Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ058-071-082-
083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>057-
066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Surface high pressure has been settling into the vicinity, allowing
for variable and light to calm winds. VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the TAF period with some upper-level clouds meandering in
overhead toward the end of the period. Look for southerly winds to
pickup a bit after sunrise Monday, becoming more southeasterly by
tomorrow evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for MOZ013>017-020>025-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...lg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Surface high pressure has been settling into the vicinity, allowing
for variable and light to calm winds. VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the TAF period with some upper-level clouds meandering in
overhead toward the end of the period. Look for southerly winds to
pickup a bit after sunrise Monday, becoming more southeasterly by
tomorrow evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for MOZ013>017-020>025-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...lg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Surface high pressure has been settling into the vicinity, allowing
for variable and light to calm winds. VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the TAF period with some upper-level clouds meandering in
overhead toward the end of the period. Look for southerly winds to
pickup a bit after sunrise Monday, becoming more southeasterly by
tomorrow evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for MOZ013>017-020>025-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...lg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1141 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through Monday
evening. Winds will be light and variable overnight and will
become light out of the south to southeast on Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for MOZ058-071-082-083-
096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for MOZ055>057-066>070-
077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Rain has cleared the eastern portion of the CWFA and clouds are
clearing out faster than expected. There is apparently an issue
with the GOES East spacecraft and satellite data has been
interrupted. Using GOES West to estimate the clearing, it should
be through most of the CWFA before sunrise if not all the way
through. With wind dropping off west of the Mississippi and
excellent radiational cooling conditions, expect more frost
further further east as well. So have gone ahead and expanded the
frost advisory to include all Missouri counties and Calhoun county
in Illinois.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
MVFR clouds have cleared out of all the taf sites late this
evening, with complete clearing of all the clouds expected in the
St Louis metro by 06Z late tonight or shortly thereafter as
surface ridge extending from western IA southwest into TX
continues to build eastward into MO. A clear sky for the remainder
of the forecast period with weak west or northwest winds late
tonight and Monday, becoming light by Monday evening as the
surface ridge moves eastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The sky should completely clear out by 06Z
late tonight or shortly thereafter. A west or northwest wind late
tonight and Monday, then a light east or northeast wind Monday
night as the surface ridge shifts east of the area.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint
Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Rain has cleared the eastern portion of the CWFA and clouds are
clearing out faster than expected. There is apparently an issue
with the GOES East spacecraft and satellite data has been
interrupted. Using GOES West to estimate the clearing, it should
be through most of the CWFA before sunrise if not all the way
through. With wind dropping off west of the Mississippi and
excellent radiational cooling conditions, expect more frost
further further east as well. So have gone ahead and expanded the
frost advisory to include all Missouri counties and Calhoun county
in Illinois.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
MVFR clouds have cleared out of all the taf sites late this
evening, with complete clearing of all the clouds expected in the
St Louis metro by 06Z late tonight or shortly thereafter as
surface ridge extending from western IA southwest into TX
continues to build eastward into MO. A clear sky for the remainder
of the forecast period with weak west or northwest winds late
tonight and Monday, becoming light by Monday evening as the
surface ridge moves eastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The sky should completely clear out by 06Z
late tonight or shortly thereafter. A west or northwest wind late
tonight and Monday, then a light east or northeast wind Monday
night as the surface ridge shifts east of the area.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint
Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1005 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Rain has cleared the eastern portion of the CWFA and clouds are
clearing out faster than expected. There is apparently an issue
with the GOES East spacecraft and satellite data has been
interrupted. Using GOES West to estimate the clearing, it should
be through most of the CWFA before sunrise if not all the way
through. With wind dropping off west of the Mississippi and
excellent radiational cooling conditions, expect more frost
further further east as well. So have gone ahead and expanded the
frost advisory to include all Missouri counties and Calhoun county
in Illinois.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Cold front extending from a surface low over IN southwest through
eastern AR will move eastward, while a surface ridge extending
from eastern Nebraska south into TX shifts eastward into MO behind
the cold front. The post frontal showers should be east of the taf
sites by 00Z this evening. Low level clouds around 1000-2000 feet
in height should advect east of COU shortly after 00Z this
evening, then east of UIN and the St Louis metro area around 03Z
this evening. Gusty northwesterly winds in the St Louis metro area
will diminish this evening as the surface pressure gradient
relaxes. A clear sky for late tonigt and Monday with weak winds as
the surface ridge moves eastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The showers should be east of STL by 00Z this
evening with MVFR cigs continuing until around 03Z this evening.
Gusty northwesterly surface wind will diminish through the night,
becoming light late tonight/early Monday morning. A clear sky and
weak wind can be expected from late tonight through the remainder
of the forecast period.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Madison MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint
Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for Calhoun IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
621 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period with
northwesterly winds this evening becoming light and variable
overnight. By Monday morning, southerly winds will return with
perhaps a few high-level clouds streaming through.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...lg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Back edge of the upper level system is currently traversing the
area. Clouds have scattered at KJLN and should break up by 02z at
KSGF/KBBG. Once clouds exit the area...expect VFR conditions
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will diminish
after sunset and remain light and variable overnight gradually
backing around to a south to southeasterly direction by 14-18z on
Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Back edge of the upper level system is currently traversing the
area. Clouds have scattered at KJLN and should break up by 02z at
KSGF/KBBG. Once clouds exit the area...expect VFR conditions
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will diminish
after sunset and remain light and variable overnight gradually
backing around to a south to southeasterly direction by 14-18z on
Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Back edge of the upper level system is currently traversing the
area. Clouds have scattered at KJLN and should break up by 02z at
KSGF/KBBG. Once clouds exit the area...expect VFR conditions
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will diminish
after sunset and remain light and variable overnight gradually
backing around to a south to southeasterly direction by 14-18z on
Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Back edge of the upper level system is currently traversing the
area. Clouds have scattered at KJLN and should break up by 02z at
KSGF/KBBG. Once clouds exit the area...expect VFR conditions
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will diminish
after sunset and remain light and variable overnight gradually
backing around to a south to southeasterly direction by 14-18z on
Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tonight,
clear skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures
after midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas
along and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details...forcing, shear, and instability
will lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to
mention an elevated risk for severe weather, and include a
mention of large hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Back edge of the upper level system is currently traversing the
area. Clouds have scattered at KJLN and should break up by 02z at
KSGF/KBBG. Once clouds exit the area...expect VFR conditions
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will diminish
after sunset and remain light and variable overnight gradually
backing around to a south to southeasterly direction by 14-18z on
Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
602 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Cold front extending from a surface low over IN southwest through
eastern AR will move eastward, while a surface ridge extending
from eastern Nebraska south into TX shifts eastward into MO behind
the cold front. The post frontal showers should be east of the taf
sites by 00Z this evening. Low level clouds around 1000-2000 feet
in height should advect east of COU shortly after 00Z this
evening, then east of UIN and the St Louis metro area around 03Z
this evening. Gusty northwesterly winds in the St Louis metro area
will diminish this evening as the surface pressure gradient
relaxes. A clear sky for late tonigt and Monday with weak winds as
the surface ridge moves eastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The showers should be east of STL by 00Z this
evening with MVFR cigs continuing until around 03Z this evening.
Gusty northwesterly surface wind will diminish through the night,
becoming light late tonight/early Monday morning. A clear sky and
weak wind can be expected from late tonight through the remainder
of the forecast period.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
343 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A cold front moved through the terminals
earlier today, and a band of rain had developed behind the front.
This band of rain with MVFR cigs will continue to affect KCOU and
KUIN for the first few hours of the TAF period. Cigs may
occasionally dip into IFR. A gradual improvement is then expected
over the next several hours with VFR conditions prevailing
overnight. An area of high pressure will approach the terminals
overnight, leading to a decrease in wind speeds.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A cold front was located near the
St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, and a band of rain
had developed behind the front. As the cold front progresses
southeastward this afternoon, the post-frontal band of rain will
also progress southeastward, bringing a period of rain and MVFR
cigs to the terminals during the afternoon. Brief periods of IFR
cigs are possible. Any thunderstorms which develop this afternoon
ahead of the front should remain south and east of the St. Louis
metro area terminals. Expect improvement to VFR during the evening
and overnight hours.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
343 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A cold front moved through the terminals
earlier today, and a band of rain had developed behind the front.
This band of rain with MVFR cigs will continue to affect KCOU and
KUIN for the first few hours of the TAF period. Cigs may
occasionally dip into IFR. A gradual improvement is then expected
over the next several hours with VFR conditions prevailing
overnight. An area of high pressure will approach the terminals
overnight, leading to a decrease in wind speeds.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A cold front was located near the
St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, and a band of rain
had developed behind the front. As the cold front progresses
southeastward this afternoon, the post-frontal band of rain will
also progress southeastward, bringing a period of rain and MVFR
cigs to the terminals during the afternoon. Brief periods of IFR
cigs are possible. Any thunderstorms which develop this afternoon
ahead of the front should remain south and east of the St. Louis
metro area terminals. Expect improvement to VFR during the evening
and overnight hours.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
343 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
An area of frontogenetically-forced post-frontal rain will
continue sinking southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the
cold front, which stretched across southeast MO into south central
IL at 20z. H85 frontogenetical forcing from the local WRF seemed to
align reasonably well with precip placement on radar, and this field
was broadly followed for placement of PoPs through the afternoon
hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon. There is a limited window for convection in the LSX
CWA before the cold front has progressed out of the area, but if any
thunderstorms do occur in the CWA late this aftn, conditions would
support a few strong to severe storms given increasing instability
(due to diurnal heating ahead of the front beneath good H7-H5 lapse
rates (~7.5 deg C/km )) in the presence of over 50 kts of 0-6 km
shear and ahead of a forcing mechanism.
Attention then shifts to tonight, where the primary forecast issue
is determining the extent of radiational cooling. The two main
factors to consider tonight are winds and cloudiness. The slower
system motion for the parent low means that the surface ridge axis
behind it is now expected to be west of the CWA (or perhaps over the
western CWA) at 12z, which means that winds may not decrease
overnight as much as previously anticipated. As for clouds, the main
post-frontal cloud bands will remain over most of the CWA for at
least several more hours. Taken together, radiational cooling
effects are most likely to affect the western one-third to one-
quarter of the CWA, which puts overnight lows near or below freezing
for a few hours. A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning have been
issued for these areas after coordination with neighboring offices.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Monday and Tuesday still look dry as we will lie under subsidence
as the upper ridge builds over the area in the wake of exiting
trough. The attendant surface ridge will move across the area
tomorrow, and then surface winds will already begin to turn out of
the southeast by late on Monday night in it`s wake, so overnight
lows will not be as low as tonight. Highs on Monday should be close
to normal, but should be able able to climb above normal by Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures reach into the 5-10C range.
GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement in this morning`s runs in
showing that a shortwave trough will eject out of the western CONUS
upper low and move across the Midwest by Thursday. This will cause
the attendant cold front to move across Missouri and Illinois by
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Will still go with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
both models are showing strong moisture return under steepening
lapse rates over the area. There is still the possibility of severe
storms given the instability and the increasing deep layer shear
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Post frontal showers may linger over parts of the area on Thursday
into Friday as the ECMWF shows the upper trough taking a while to
move through the area. Then have kept Saturday and Sunday dry for
now as ECMWF and GFS are showing upper flow turning northwesterly,
but atmosphere is relatively dry through at deep layer. Temperatures
at 850mb will fall below zero, but are not nearly as cold as the
models were depicting yesterday. Will continue to go with below
normal temperatures for next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A cold front moved through the terminals
earlier today, and a band of rain had developed behind the front.
This band of rain with MVFR cigs will continue to affect KCOU and
KUIN for the first few hours of the TAF period. Cigs may
occasionally dip into IFR. A gradual improvement is then expected
over the next several hours with VFR conditions prevailing
overnight. An area of high pressure will approach the terminals
overnight, leading to a decrease in wind speeds.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A cold front was located near the
St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, and a band of rain
had developed behind the front. As the cold front progresses
southeastward this afternoon, the post-frontal band of rain will
also progress southeastward, bringing a period of rain and MVFR
cigs to the terminals during the afternoon. Brief periods of IFR
cigs are possible. Any thunderstorms which develop this afternoon
ahead of the front should remain south and east of the St. Louis
metro area terminals. Expect improvement to VFR during the evening
and overnight hours.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe MO-Shelby MO.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Storm system responsible for this morning`s moderate to locally
heavy rain and light snow quickly exiting off to the east this
afternoon. Overall...our area faired pretty well as a few inches of
snow was reported just to our west in the Topeka and Wichita forecast
areas. Heading into tonight...attention quickly shifts to cold
temperatures as high pressure builds in...skies clear...and winds
weaken. This will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
conditions which should result in early morning lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas. As a result...a freeze
warning has been posted for much of the Lower Missouri River
Valley...which runs from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Through the early week...wx concerns continue to be negligible was
high pressure will dominate the local pattern through much of the day
on Monday. As the high center slides off to our southeast by early
Monday afternoon...weak southerly flow will redevelop which combined
with abundant sunshine...should allow daytime highs to climb into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Meanwhile...attention
will quickly shift upstream to a large upper-level low that will be
digging through the Great Basin Monday night/early Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow in advance of this feature combined with the northward
lifting of a warm front to our south will set the stage for
increasing clouds and periods of light rain shwrs Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have retracted previous mention of thunder for both periods as
latest guidance now showing a real lack of any appreciable
instability.
Sensible wx impacts set to increase across the area of Wednesday as
previously mentioned trough begins to eject into the central High
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has had our region outlooked for
possible severe wx Wednesday/Wednesday night for the past few days
now and considering the synoptic signal...having a hard time
disagreeing with their forecasts. That said...main issues seen this
afternoon that may prevent a significant severe wx threat from
developing include:
1) Substantial cloud cover south of northward lifting warm front
Wednesday afternoon. The presence of low clouds could obviously limit
the degree of destabilization...and;
2) A well-advertised EML plume which is forecast to be in place over
our region during peak heating. This feature could cap any developing
updrafts until late in the evening when synoptic forcing increases
thanks to arriving frontal convergence ahead of main cold front.
In any event...shear profiles are more than supportive of severe
weather with 0-6km bulk shear values ranging from 40-45 kts across
the area. Parallel orientation to the main arriving cold front
suggests linear type convection with strong winds being the biggest
threat...however if activity is able to develop early in the
afternoon...cannot rule out a few isolated cells out ahead of the
boundary before upscale growth possibly occurs into a squall line
later that evening/overnight. Still a little too early to get too
excited considering the possible limitations listed above...but the
possibility is there and we`ll continue to monitor.
Towards the latter stages of next week...expect a notable cool down
on Thursday with a few lingering light rain/snow shwrs possible as
wrap around energy rotates south into the area. In any event...what
looked like a pretty significant cool down a few days ago as shown a
warmer hand for late next week into the weekend as latest guidance
takes the core of coldest temps aloft further northeast across the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. As a result...seasonable and
mostly dry weather can be expected through much of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
137 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tight, clear
skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures after
midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas along
and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details, forcing, shear, and instability will
lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to mentioned an
elevated risk for severe weather, and include a mention of large
hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: A cold front tracked through the
area earlier this morning. Behind the front a low level stratus
deck with IFR ceilings is spreading across the area. This system
is quickly spreading east this afternoon and the clearing line is
currently pushing across extreme southeastern Kansas early this
afternoon, and will clear from west to east by early this evening.
Under the stratus deck some patchy drizzle may occur at times.
Winds will be out of the north to northwest this afternoon and
become light and variable this evening into Monday morning as high
pressure moves over the region. Temperatures will drop into the
upper 20s to the lower 30s tonight with areas of frost expected to
develop early Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
137 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
A chilly rainfall fell over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were mitigated by cloud cover and
cold air advection out of Canada.
The clearing line was actually progressing eastward, and could
result in some sunshine over portions of the region late this
afternoon.
As high pressure translates across southern Missouri tight, clear
skies and light winds will facilitate freezing temperatures after
midnight tonight. We have issued a Freeze Warning for areas along
and northwest of a line from Table Rock Lake to Lake of the
Ozarks. A Frost Advisory has been posted for south central
Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather to
the Ozarks Monday into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the
60s and 70s on an afternoon basis.
Southerly winds will bring Gulf moisture back into southern
Missouri. The Ozarks airmass will destabilize prior to an intense
storm system approaching from the west on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.
From a large scale standpoint, the signal for an episode of severe
thunderstorms is becoming likely across the region.
Wednesday and Wednesday night`s smaller scale set up is quite
muddy at this point.
There are timing and storm structure differences between the
ECMWF, GFS, and NAM operational runs. Despite the uncertainty of
these smaller scale details, forcing, shear, and instability will
lead to organized thunderstorms. We will continue to mentioned an
elevated risk for severe weather, and include a mention of large
hail.
Following this round of severe weather, the end of the week looks
chilly. A deep Canadian airmass spreads across Missouri and well
into the deep south. This could bring near freezing or sub
freezing temperatures back into the area as we head into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: A cold front tracked through the
area earlier this morning. Behind the front a low level stratus
deck with IFR ceilings is spreading across the area. This system
is quickly spreading east this afternoon and the clearing line is
currently pushing across extreme southeastern Kansas early this
afternoon, and will clear from west to east by early this evening.
Under the stratus deck some patchy drizzle may occur at times.
Winds will be out of the north to northwest this afternoon and
become light and variable this evening into Monday morning as high
pressure moves over the region. Temperatures will drop into the
upper 20s to the lower 30s tonight with areas of frost expected to
develop early Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1254 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of frontogenetically-driven rain will slowly slide
southeastward through the early morning hours reaching portions of
central and northeastern Missouri by mid/late morning and to the St.
Louis metro area by early afternoon. The timing of this area of
rain is several hours slower than previous forecast due to slower
fropa through the CWA.
The slower passage of the cold front will also allow temperatures to
warmup more than previously expected with a tight temperature
gradient from northwest to southeast. Across northwestern sections
of the area...highs will only be in the 40s due to copious amounts
of cloud cover and rainfall. However...for portions of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois...am expecting highs to near 70
degrees as fropa is not expected there until late afternoon. For
these areas...enough instability will likely materialize for
isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Could be an isolated strong/severe storm or two but
better chances further southeast of CWA.
Will be a lingering threat of light rain for portions of south-
central Illinois early this evening but conditions should quickly
dry out. Cloud cover will decrease overnight tonight as well.
Combine that with winds diminishing with approach of sfc
ridge...could be a good setup for radiational cooling and frost
development late tonight. Forecast lows tonight generally west of
the Mississippi River are expected to be in the 30-35 degree range
so a light freeze is possible. Will hold off on any headlines for
now and let dayshift decipher which (if any) frost/freeze headlines
are warranted. Timing of clearing skies and sfc ridge will be the
key factors.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Surface ridge will be over region Monday with dry and warmer
weather for the first part of the work week. By Tuesday surface
ridge will be to our east, so winds will be out of the south with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, low level moisture will be on the increase ahead of
next weather system. So showers and a few thunderstorms to develop
and spread northward across the area on Wednesday. The best chances
of precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening as
strong cold front slides through region. Some differences in timing
among the extended models, so kept low chance mention through
Thursday, before tapering off.
As for temperatures, Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Then colder air to filter in with highs
near normal by Friday, in the 50s.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A cold front moved through the terminals
earlier today, and a band of rain had developed behind the front.
This band of rain with MVFR cigs will continue to affect KCOU and
KUIN for the first few hours of the TAF period. Cigs may
occasionally dip into IFR. A gradual improvement is then expected
over the next several hours with VFR conditions prevailing
overnight. An area of high pressure will approach the terminals
overnight, leading to a decrease in wind speeds.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A cold front was located near the
St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, and a band of rain
had developed behind the front. As the cold front progresses
southeastward this afternoon, the post-frontal band of rain will
also progress southeastward, bringing a period of rain and MVFR
cigs to the terminals during the afternoon. Brief periods of IFR
cigs are possible. Any thunderstorms which develop this afternoon
ahead of the front should remain south and east of the St. Louis
metro area terminals. Expect improvement to VFR during the evening
and overnight hours.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1241 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
...Update to Aviation Discussion for the 18Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s this
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will end
the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out the
details, but something to keep an eye on. Overall confidence is
medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: A cold front tracked through the
area earlier this morning. Behind the front a low level stratus
deck with IFR ceilings is spreading across the area. This system
is quickly spreading east this afternoon and the clearing line is
currently pushing across extreme southeastern Kansas early this
afternoon, and will clear from west to east by early this evening.
Under the stratus deck some patchy drizzle may occur at times.
Winds will be out of the north to northwest this afternoon and
become light and variable this evening into Monday morning as high
pressure moves over the region. Temperatures will drop into the
upper 20s to the lower 30s tonight with areas of frost expected to
develop early Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ058-071-082-083-096>098-104>106.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>057-066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
Conditions quickly improving this afternoon as this morning`s storm
system quickly exits to the east. In fact, back edge of stratus
expected to quickly move through area terminals by the 19z time
frame. After this...expect rapidly clearing skies with VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the fcst period. Winds generally
from the west-northwest between 5-10 kts this afternoon will weaken
and back to the southeast overnight and Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s this
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will end
the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out the
details, but something to keep an eye on. Overall confidence is
medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A surface cold front just recently
moved through the taf sites over the last few hours. A post
frontal disturbance moving northeast through eastern KS will
lower ceilings, especially at KJLN (already low end MVFR) and KSGF
with increasing chances for rain. Somewhat lower ceilings at KBBG
will occur as well but with lesser sustained rain chances.
Moderately gusty northwest winds are also expected. As the
disturbance pulls away expected a clearing sky with diminishing
winds after 21z.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A surface cold front just recently
moved through the taf sites over the last few hours. A post
frontal disturbance moving northeast through eastern KS will
lower ceilings, especially at KJLN (already low end MVFR) and KSGF
with increasing chances for rain. Somewhat lower ceilings at KBBG
will occur as well but with lesser sustained rain chances.
Moderately gusty northwest winds are also expected. As the
disturbance pulls away expected a clearing sky with diminishing
winds after 21z.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A surface cold front just recently
moved through the taf sites over the last few hours. A post
frontal disturbance moving northeast through eastern KS will
lower ceilings, especially at KJLN (already low end MVFR) and KSGF
with increasing chances for rain. Somewhat lower ceilings at KBBG
will occur as well but with lesser sustained rain chances.
Moderately gusty northwest winds are also expected. As the
disturbance pulls away expected a clearing sky with diminishing
winds after 21z.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A surface cold front just recently
moved through the taf sites over the last few hours. A post
frontal disturbance moving northeast through eastern KS will
lower ceilings, especially at KJLN (already low end MVFR) and KSGF
with increasing chances for rain. Somewhat lower ceilings at KBBG
will occur as well but with lesser sustained rain chances.
Moderately gusty northwest winds are also expected. As the
disturbance pulls away expected a clearing sky with diminishing
winds after 21z.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A band of rain and snow is currently positioned across the area.
Temperatures have been hovering in the low to mid 30s making
precip type difficult to nail down. Several terminals have seen a
quick burst of snow with others just experiencing light rain. This
band of precip will hang around several more hours before clearing
from west to east by late morning. Heavier precip should drop off by
15Z with light precip possible thru 17Z. Skies begin to clear by mid
afternoon as the system moves eastward out of the region. Winds will
remain generally out of the northwest near 12kts or lighter thru the
period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A band of rain and snow is currently positioned across the area.
Temperatures have been hovering in the low to mid 30s making
precip type difficult to nail down. Several terminals have seen a
quick burst of snow with others just experiencing light rain. This
band of precip will hang around several more hours before clearing
from west to east by late morning. Heavier precip should drop off by
15Z with light precip possible thru 17Z. Skies begin to clear by mid
afternoon as the system moves eastward out of the region. Winds will
remain generally out of the northwest near 12kts or lighter thru the
period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of frontogenetically-driven rain will slowly slide
southeastward through the early morning hours reaching portions of
central and northeastern Missouri by mid/late morning and to the St.
Louis metro area by early afternoon. The timing of this area of
rain is several hours slower than previous forecast due to slower
fropa through the CWA.
The slower passage of the cold front will also allow temperatures to
warmup more than previously expected with a tight temperature
gradient from northwest to southeast. Across northwestern sections
of the area...highs will only be in the 40s due to copious amounts
of cloud cover and rainfall. However...for portions of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois...am expecting highs to near 70
degrees as fropa is not expected there until late afternoon. For
these areas...enough instability will likely materialize for
isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Could be an isolated strong/severe storm or two but
better chances further southeast of CWA.
Will be a lingering threat of light rain for portions of south-
central Illinois early this evening but conditions should quickly
dry out. Cloud cover will decrease overnight tonight as well.
Combine that with winds diminishing with approach of sfc
ridge...could be a good setup for radiational cooling and frost
development late tonight. Forecast lows tonight generally west of
the Mississippi River are expected to be in the 30-35 degree range
so a light freeze is possible. Will hold off on any headlines for
now and let dayshift decipher which (if any) frost/freeze headlines
are warranted. Timing of clearing skies and sfc ridge will be the
key factors.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Surface ridge will be over region Monday with dry and warmer
weather for the first part of the work week. By Tuesday surface
ridge will be to our east, so winds will be out of the south with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, low level moisture will be on the increase ahead of
next weather system. So showers and a few thunderstorms to develop
and spread northward across the area on Wednesday. The best chances
of precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening as
strong cold front slides through region. Some differences in timing
among the extended models, so kept low chance mention through
Thursday, before tapering off.
As for temperatures, Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Then colder air to filter in with highs
near normal by Friday, in the 50s.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of rain should slowly slide eastward toward KCOU/KUIN by late
this morning and St. Louis metro terminals by mid afternoon.
Ceilings will also lower to at least low MVFR along with MVFR
visibilities. IFR ceilings are also possible but most likely this
morning at KCOU and to a lesser degree KUIN. Winds will stay out
of the NW through the period at KCOU and KUIN behind the cold
front and should swing to the NW at the metro terminals by early
afternoon. Rain chances will be east of the terminals by late this
afternoon with improving conditions. For tonight...skies should
clear from west to east.
Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front should move through by early afternoon with light rain
moving in from the west shortly thereafter. Period of about 3
hours of rain along with MVFR visibilities/ceilings. Conditions
will improve by evening after the rain moves out of the area.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 66 39 62 42 / 90 5 0 0
Quincy 47 31 60 40 / 90 5 0 0
Columbia 46 31 64 41 / 80 5 0 0
Jefferson City 48 31 65 40 / 90 5 0 0
Salem 70 39 60 40 / 60 20 0 0
Farmington 65 35 62 38 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of frontogenetically-driven rain will slowly slide
southeastward through the early morning hours reaching portions of
central and northeastern Missouri by mid/late morning and to the St.
Louis metro area by early afternoon. The timing of this area of
rain is several hours slower than previous forecast due to slower
fropa through the CWA.
The slower passage of the cold front will also allow temperatures to
warmup more than previously expected with a tight temperature
gradient from northwest to southeast. Across northwestern sections
of the area...highs will only be in the 40s due to copious amounts
of cloud cover and rainfall. However...for portions of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois...am expecting highs to near 70
degrees as fropa is not expected there until late afternoon. For
these areas...enough instability will likely materialize for
isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Could be an isolated strong/severe storm or two but
better chances further southeast of CWA.
Will be a lingering threat of light rain for portions of south-
central Illinois early this evening but conditions should quickly
dry out. Cloud cover will decrease overnight tonight as well.
Combine that with winds diminishing with approach of sfc
ridge...could be a good setup for radiational cooling and frost
development late tonight. Forecast lows tonight generally west of
the Mississippi River are expected to be in the 30-35 degree range
so a light freeze is possible. Will hold off on any headlines for
now and let dayshift decipher which (if any) frost/freeze headlines
are warranted. Timing of clearing skies and sfc ridge will be the
key factors.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Surface ridge will be over region Monday with dry and warmer
weather for the first part of the work week. By Tuesday surface
ridge will be to our east, so winds will be out of the south with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, low level moisture will be on the increase ahead of
next weather system. So showers and a few thunderstorms to develop
and spread northward across the area on Wednesday. The best chances
of precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening as
strong cold front slides through region. Some differences in timing
among the extended models, so kept low chance mention through
Thursday, before tapering off.
As for temperatures, Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Then colder air to filter in with highs
near normal by Friday, in the 50s.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of rain should slowly slide eastward toward KCOU/KUIN by late
this morning and St. Louis metro terminals by mid afternoon.
Ceilings will also lower to at least low MVFR along with MVFR
visibilities. IFR ceilings are also possible but most likely this
morning at KCOU and to a lesser degree KUIN. Winds will stay out
of the NW through the period at KCOU and KUIN behind the cold
front and should swing to the NW at the metro terminals by early
afternoon. Rain chances will be east of the terminals by late this
afternoon with improving conditions. For tonight...skies should
clear from west to east.
Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front should move through by early afternoon with light rain
moving in from the west shortly thereafter. Period of about 3
hours of rain along with MVFR visibilities/ceilings. Conditions
will improve by evening after the rain moves out of the area.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 66 39 62 42 / 90 5 0 0
Quincy 47 31 60 40 / 90 5 0 0
Columbia 46 31 64 41 / 80 5 0 0
Jefferson City 48 31 65 40 / 90 5 0 0
Salem 70 39 60 40 / 60 20 0 0
Farmington 65 35 62 38 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
433 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
433 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
433 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
331 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of frontogenetically-driven rain will slowly slide
southeastward through the early morning hours reaching portions of
central and northeastern Missouri by mid/late morning and to the St.
Louis metro area by early afternoon. The timing of this area of
rain is several hours slower than previous forecast due to slower
fropa through the CWA.
The slower passage of the cold front will also allow temperatures to
warmup more than previously expected with a tight temperature
gradient from northwest to southeast. Across northwestern sections
of the area...highs will only be in the 40s due to copious amounts
of cloud cover and rainfall. However...for portions of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois...am expecting highs to near 70
degrees as fropa is not expected there until late afternoon. For
these areas...enough instability will likely materialize for
isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Could be an isolated strong/severe storm or two but
better chances further southeast of CWA.
Will be a lingering threat of light rain for portions of south-
central Illinois early this evening but conditions should quickly
dry out. Cloud cover will decrease overnight tonight as well.
Combine that with winds diminishing with approach of sfc
ridge...could be a good setup for radiational cooling and frost
development late tonight. Forecast lows tonight generally west of
the Mississippi River are expected to be in the 30-35 degree range
so a light freeze is possible. Will hold off on any headlines for
now and let dayshift decipher which (if any) frost/freeze headlines
are warranted. Timing of clearing skies and sfc ridge will be the
key factors.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Surface ridge will be over region Monday with dry and warmer
weather for the first part of the work week. By Tuesday surface
ridge will be to our east, so winds will be out of the south with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, low level moisture will be on the increase ahead of
next weather system. So showers and a few thunderstorms to develop
and spread northward across the area on Wednesday. The best chances
of precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening as
strong cold front slides through region. Some differences in timing
among the extended models, so kept low chance mention through
Thursday, before tapering off.
As for temperatures, Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Then colder air to filter in with highs
near normal by Friday, in the 50s.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
A cold front extending from a surface low over northwestern IA
south to near COU, then southwest through JLN will move slowly
southeastward through the taf sites late tonight and Sunday.
Showers are expected to move into UIN and COU Sunday morning and
into the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon ahead of an upper
level disturbance which will move east-northeastward through MO
Sunday afternoon and induce a weak surface wave along the cold
front. Low level clouds will advect into UIN and COU late tonight
and into the St Louis metro area Sunday morning. The ceiling
height will drop to around 1000-2000 feet in UIN and COU Sunday
morning and in the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon. Sely
surface wind will veer around to a nwly direction late tonight
in UIN as they have already in COU, and in the St Louis metro
area late Sunday morning after fropa. The showers will shift east
of the taf sites by early Sunday evening with cloud ceiling rising
to VFR conditions Sunday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds will advect into the STL area
Sunday morning, then the cloud ceiling will lower to around
1000-2000 feet Sunday afternoon with showers as well Sunday
afternoon. The cloud ceiling will rise back into the VFR category
Sunday evening. Sely surface wind will veer around to a nwly
direction late Sunday morning after fropa.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 65 39 62 42 / 90 5 0 0
Quincy 47 31 60 40 / 90 5 0 0
Columbia 46 31 64 41 / 90 5 0 0
Jefferson City 47 31 65 40 / 90 5 0 0
Salem 69 39 60 40 / 60 20 0 0
Farmington 63 35 62 38 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A quick moving storm system will bring lowering ceilings to the
region late tonight and Sunday morning. MVFR is very likely with
some scattered IFR potential. The best potential for IFR will be
around Joplin and Springfield. A band of rain showers will also
push through the area with a reduction to MVFR possible. Skies
will then quickly clear in the afternoon with VFR returning by
late afternoon.
Winds will be somewhat brisk and gusty out of the northwest on
Sunday but will quickly diminish by evening.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A quick moving storm system will bring lowering ceilings to the
region late tonight and Sunday morning. MVFR is very likely with
some scattered IFR potential. The best potential for IFR will be
around Joplin and Springfield. A band of rain showers will also
push through the area with a reduction to MVFR possible. Skies
will then quickly clear in the afternoon with VFR returning by
late afternoon.
Winds will be somewhat brisk and gusty out of the northwest on
Sunday but will quickly diminish by evening.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
It was another nice day across southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Under a mix of sun and clouds, temperatures warmed into
the 60s.
A cold front was positioned across the Kansas Flint Hills. This
feature will approach the region, and force a chilly rainfall
along and north of this feature late tonight and into Sunday.
Most locations on Sunday will experience measurable precipitation.
Although, this episode of rain will be short-lived. A speed max
located over northern New Mexico will drive this rain east of the
Ozarks by Sunday evening.
With skies clearing and winds becoming light and variable,
temperatures Sunday night will fall below freezing in many areas.
The eastern Ozarks may stay above freezing.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
A warming trend is expected Monday through Wednesday as an upper
level ridge of high pressure translates across the nations mid
section.
Temperatures by Tuesday afternoon will be well into the 70s.
Tuesday will be a fantastic day for outdoor activities.
Meanwhile, an intense storm system will be brewing out to the
west. This will pull Gulf moisture into the Ozarks, and set the
stage for an episode of severe storms during the day on Wednesday.
Regarding Wednesday, both the GFS and ECMWF have been consistent
with timing thunderstorm development during the daytime, which
would allow for more destabilization. Shear looks pretty strong
with this system.
Given this cape - shear signal, we will begin to mention an
expectation for severe thunderstorms.
After Wednesday we will need to watch for the risk of cold air and
freeze possibilities.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A quick moving storm system will bring lowering ceilings to the
region late tonight and Sunday morning. MVFR is very likely with
some scattered IFR potential. The best potential for IFR will be
around Joplin and Springfield. A band of rain showers will also
push through the area with a reduction to MVFR possible. Skies
will then quickly clear in the afternoon with VFR returning by
late afternoon.
Winds will be somewhat brisk and gusty out of the northwest on
Sunday but will quickly diminish by evening.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 405 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
Leading shortwave trough, that brought rain this morning into the
early afternoon, is quickly moving to our northeast taking the
lingering rain with it. However, for tonight and Sunday we will be
watching another shortwave trough, currently swinging through
Colorado, as it moves through the Southern and Central Plains on its
way east up the Ohio River Valley late Sunday. Model runs continue
to advertise another decent round of light to moderate rain with the
secondary trough, though complicating the issue is the cold air
surging south behind a cold front that the leading shortwave trough
is pushing through the forecast region today. This will provide an
opportunity for some snow sunday morning.
For Tonight and Sunday...light rain associated with a passing
shortwave is exiting the area this afternoon, and with a little
clearing of the clouds across central and northeast Missouri,
temperatures have responded in those areas by jumping into the 60s
ahead of a weak cold front, that is currently starting to sweep
across Missouri. The slight clearing behind the cold front will give
us a break in activity, but we still expect the secondary trough to
induce more lift as the axis swings across the Plains tonight. Model
runs continue to limit the precipitation shield to areas broadly
around and south of I-35 as that is where the better upper level
dynamics are. As mentioned, the dropping temperatures overnight will
complicate issues as precipitation type will likely come into play.
Model sounds indicate there is a window for some snow as the air
column cools and the precipitation develops across the eastern
Kansas and far western Missouri. However, models seem a little
aggressive with the snow and advertised accumulations given surface
temperatures that are expected to remain above freezing through the
event. But, given the temperature regime we will be in, expect a mix
of precipitation types early through mid Sunday morning. Will limit
the mention of precipitation types to rain or snow, but concede that
some reports of sleet might work in early Sunday morning. Otherwise,
there is a very small chance that some of the snow will stick to
grassy areas during the cool morning hours, but any snow that does
fall wont amount to much and will quickly melt. Ultimately, this all
boils down to a cool wet forecast for Sunday morning.
Monday into the work week...conditions will begin to rebound with a
return of warmer Spring temperatures as a large West Coast trough
forces a shortwave ridge across the Plains through mid-week.
However, that West Coast trough, and another in the northern stream,
will eventually eject through the Plains Tuesday through Thursday,
likely resulting in a large storm event across the region with severe
thunderstorms possible. This will leave temperatures in the 60s and
70s Monday through Wednesday, dropping back into the 50s Thursday on
as cool air sweeps in behind the mid-work-week storm system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1119 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
Made some updates to PoPs for the rest of the night...primarily
out over central and northeast Missouri to match up better with
latest short-range guidance. Up until the 01Z run, the RAP was
printing out some light QPF in those areas in the warm advection
ahead of the cold front...but this latest run has dried up. HRRR
still develops a few sprinkles as does the new NAM. Have kept some
low chance/slight chance PoPs for this evening over central and
northeast Missouri, but did end up pairing it back from what the
day shift gave me. Gradually ramped up PoPs after 06Z tonight toward
likely by 11-12Z.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
Early afternoon water vapor imagery depicted one shortwave lifting
away from the region and another shortwave lurking upstream, leading
to an expectation of continued benign conditions through the evening
hours. The upstream shortwave will push a cold front into the region
overnight and tomorrow. The timing and placement of large-scale
ascent, moisture, and frontogenetical forcing suggests that the
majority of pcpn should be post-frontal. This means that an area of
rain should develop and move into the western CWA either late
tonight or early tomorrow morning, depending on how quickly the cold
front progresses southeastward. A few models depicted an elongated
area of weak H85-H7 moisture convergence stretching into the CWA
after 09z, but elevated thunderstorms seem unlikely attm given the
low values of MUCAPE.
Overnight lows should be warmer than last night due to a warmer
start to the day, increasing clouds overnight, and persistent
southeasterly to southerly flow ahead of the front.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Still looks like Sunday will be wet as trough now over the central
High Plains will move east into the western Missouri by midday
tomorrow. Low level moisture convergence will increase under the
mid level ascent across central and northeast Missouri early
tomorrow morning that will spread east across the area during the
day. Have increased to categorical PoPs given the strength of the
forcing. Still looks like the speed the the trough will cause the
rain showers to move out of the area by early evening.
Then a ridge will build into the area quickly behind the trough
allowing Monday and Tuesday to be dry. Will need to watch for
frost on Monday night where temperatures drop into the lower to
mid 30s and skies will be clear with light winds. Temperatures
will climb back above normal by Tuesday as winds turn back out of
the south.
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Models have not shown much change from yesterday with a deep upper
low over the western CONUS early on Wednesday and an upper ridge
to the east. Still looks like there will be a chance of showers
and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Wednesday night as both models
are showing some amount of CAPE ahead of the cold front. The GFS
is quicker to move an upper trough that is the result of the
phasing of the northern part of the aforementioned upper low and a
trough moving southeast out of Canada across our area on Thursday.
This contrasts with the ECMWF which does not show as much phasing
and lets the Canadian trough move eastward. The GFS has it`s
attendant cold front pass through the CWA on Wednesday night
whereas the ECMWF is about 12 hours slower; it passes through on
Thursday morning. Consequently the ECMWF would allow precipitation
to linger over the area longer on Thursday compared to the GFS
which would be dry. Will hold onto the rain chances into Thursday
per the ECMWF because of this before going dry on Friday and
Saturday when a surface ridge will move into the area.
Temperatures on Wednesday still look above normal with 850mb
temperatures around +10C, but then should fall back near or below
normal behind the cold front.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
A cold front extending from a surface low over northwestern IA
south to near COU, then southwest through JLN will move slowly
southeastward through the taf sites late tonight and Sunday.
Showers are expected to move into UIN and COU Sunday morning and
into the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon ahead of an upper
level disturbance which will move east-northeastward through MO
Sunday afternoon and induce a weak surface wave along the cold
front. Low level clouds will advect into UIN and COU late tonight
and into the St Louis metro area Sunday morning. The ceiling
height will drop to around 1000-2000 feet in UIN and COU Sunday
morning and in the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon. Sely
surface wind will veer around to a nwly direction late tonight
in UIN as they have already in COU, and in the St Louis metro
area late Sunday morning after fropa. The showers will shift east
of the taf sites by early Sunday evening with cloud ceiling rising
to VFR conditions Sunday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds will advect into the STL area
Sunday morning, then the cloud ceiling will lower to around
1000-2000 feet Sunday afternoon with showers as well Sunday
afternoon. The cloud ceiling will rise back into the VFR catagory
Sunday evening. Sely surface wind will veer around to a nwly
direction late Sunday morning after fropa.
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
335 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
H5 HAND ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS. A TROUGH WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...SWD TO THE CAROLINAS. RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A CLOSED LOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF IDAHO WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. HT FALLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WERE MOST
PRONOUNCED AT RENO AND MEDFORD OREGON WHERE 100-120 METER FALLS WERE
NOTED. FURTHER EAST...70-90 METER FALLS WERE NOTED AT ELKO NEVADA
AND SALT LAKE CITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE OZARKS WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NOTED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO...WYOMING...ALONG WITH THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SRLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS LED
TO A DECENT SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
INVADING HIGH CLOUDINESS CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ROCKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION. THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA... FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING LEE
SIDE SURFACE LOW.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... EXPECT WINDS TO STAY ELEVATED WITH THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT NOT RELAXING AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
AFTER DARK. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AND MOST
MODELS SHOWING H85 WINDS NEAR 20-25KTS. AROUND 06Z... THE RAP IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE LLJ WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 50KTS OVER THE
SANDHILLS. MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW. DEW POINTS ARE ECLIPSING 30F IN FAR
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS AS OF 20Z. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83 OVERNIGHT... BUT
PUSHED THE POPS BACK UNTIL AFTER 09Z. HRRR KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH 08Z... AND SOME NCAR WRF MEMBERS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT TOWARD
09Z OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KLBF...
KBBW...AND KONL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED SHOWER OR STORM WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND LIFT ABOVE THE INVERSION. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WITH CAPE GENERALLY UNDER 500J/KG AND POSITIVE LIFTED INDEX... BUT
LLJ WILL RESULT IN APPRECIABLE SHEAR. DUE TO INCREASED
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER... BREEZY CONDITIONS... AND H85 TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND 9C... WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND OF MIN TEMPS OF UPPER 30S
PANHANDLE AND NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE.
TUESDAY... TRENDED MAX TEMPS TOWARD THE MAV DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE WITH TEMPS NEAR 20C AT KIML AND 13C AT KVTN...
ECS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THERMAL AXIS... AND NAM SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA RESULTING IN 10C AT KIML AND 6C AT KVTN. HAVE COOLEST HIGHS
NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO COOLER H85 TEMPS AND POSSIBLY SOME OF THE
MORNING CONVECTION LASTING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID LEVEL
FGEN FORCING ENTERS THE PANHANDLE AFTER 18Z... SO EXPANDED POPS FROM
KIML TO KVTN. MENTIONED THUNDER WITH MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG... 0-6KM
SHEAR NEAR 45KTS... AND LIFTED INDEX NEAR 0. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AT KAIA AND KOGA SHOW SUFFICIENT LIFT IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS...
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 295K AND 300K. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALSO CONTINUES WITH MIXING RATIOS NEARING 8G/KG AND DEW
POINTS PASSING 45F BY 21Z.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
MID RANGE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS...AND
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR
TUESDAY EVENING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...BRIEFLY ALONG AND EAST OF A MERRIMAN TO OGALLALA LINE. BY
MIDNIGHT...THE H5 LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT SERN WYOMING INTO THE NEBR
PANHANDLE. ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPG LOW...ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS MID LEVEL WAA AND LIFT. LIFT WILL
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INVOF OF THE H7
FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE LIKELY MENTION OF POPS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
BE NOTED PER NAM AND GFS FCST NEGATIVE H850 LIFTED INDICES. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EMERGE EAST ENTERING THE
WESTERN CWA...THEN EXITING THE EASTERN CWA TOWARD THE END OF THE
DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO COLD AIR ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE H5 LOW AND THIS TIES IN DIRECTLY TO SNOW
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDEST SOLN...WITH
THE ECMWF WARMEST AND THE NAM A COMPROMISE. ALSO...THE 12Z
GFS...AND00Z ECMWF FROM LAST NIGHT...LIFT THE H5 LOW IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION...WHILE THE NAM LIFTS THIS MORE EAST.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE FAVORS A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SOLN WHICH
WAS FAVORED. THIS SOLN GENERATES THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS THE NERN PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY.
UTILIZING A 8-1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO SINCE TEMPS HOVER IN THE LOWER
30S...YIELDS 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO HOIST A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY FOR WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
EAST...A LATER CHANGEOVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL FACILITATE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER ACCUMS WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD RAIN WEDS NIGHT.
WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WEDS AFTERNOON...THE NAM12 REMAINS
THE FARTHEST WEST WITH ITS DRYLINE WEDS AFTN AND BY 00Z
THURSDAY...IS JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THE NAM SOLN
INITIATES CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE BULGE...JUST TO THE EAST OF
WHEELER COUNTY LATE WEDS AFTN. SWRLY H5 WINDS WILL CARRY THIS AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA...SO NO SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW...WILL END OVERNIGHT IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BEING IN
THE NORTHERN CWA. IN THESE AREAS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
ALOFT...WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WE HAVE A GOOD THREAT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MENTION WAS CONTINUED WITH THE NEW FORECAST
PACKAGE. AS FOR HIGHS THURSDAY...THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BACK INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM 2C IN THE SOUTHWEST...TO -4C IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO AROUND 50 IN THE
SOUTHWEST. ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ATTM...THE MODELS DO KEEP THIS AIR
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...SO HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA MAY BE VULNERABLE TO
THIS ARCTIC AIR BACKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS
WIND. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN TAPER A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SET UP AFTER SUNSET AND CREATE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS OF UP TO
A 30KT DIFFERENCE WITHIN 2KFT AGL. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY EAST OF A KVTN TO KLBF
LINE. SOUTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 20KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...SNIVELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
235 PM PDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING BEFORE RELAXING LATE TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST IS LIKELY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
LAS VEGAS. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SIERRA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A WARMING TREND COMMENCES LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM... THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
...MAJOR WIND EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A VERY WINDY EVENING IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS A POWERFUL
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASINGLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING TOWARDS THE
REGION WHICH WILL ENHANCE DOWNSLOPING WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HOURS TO
COME. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A STABLE LAYER ABOVE
THE RIDGETOP LEVEL OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS (~10K FT) WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT REACHING INTO
THE WESTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THIS STORM SYSTEM
BEARS SIMILARITY TO THE MARCH 6TH 2012 WIND EVENT WHEN THE WINDS
TOPPED OUT AT 63 MPH AT MCCARRAN AND OVER 14,000 PEOPLE LOST POWER
IN ADDITION TO SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE. WITH THIS EVENT...SIMILARLY
STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT IN
EASTERN CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA...AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
IN SUMMARY...PREPARE FOR
*WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH
*POCKETS OF DENSE BLOWING DUST AND LOW VISIBILITY
*SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES
*POSSIBLE WIND DAMAGE TO OUTDOOR STRUCTURES AND ROOFTOPS
*FLIGHT DELAYS
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FROM NEAR TONOPAH DOWN TOWARDS LIDA. THESE
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
ALSO KICK OFF THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLOWLY RELAX.
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THERE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IT FINALLY SHIFTS EAST. IN THE
MEANTIME...INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SIERRA BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN STATES BY
THURSDAY RESULTING IN IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB PRETTY RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING THE MID 80S BY MONDAY FOR LAS VEGAS AND
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S FOR DEATH VALLEY AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER.
LONGER RANGE MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE KLAS TERMINAL AREA FROM 1500 TO 1800 PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 52 KTS. THIS IS DUE TO A VIGOROUS
STORM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DECREASE MODERATELY THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVERHEAD...BUT GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT PDT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT CLOUD
BASES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 8 KFT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER TUESDAY BUT SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY ABOVE
10 KNOTS WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST COMPONENT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40-55 KTS ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT REGION WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING BUT GUSTS
OF 30-40KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS STORM
MOVES FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
TUESDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS...REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY...OR
DAMAGE ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...OUTLER
AVIATION...ADAIR
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
1115 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
We have allowed the Winter Weather Advisory to expire at 11am.
There are still a few locations with chain controls in western NV,
although road conditions will continue to improve through the day
as the road surfaces warm up and melt off the snow. Additional light
accumulations of up to an inch or less are expected. Snow showers
will continue to shift further south of Highway 50 during the
afternoon and this evening. Hoon
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 933 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
UPDATE...
Heavy snow amounts are being reported around the Reno- Sparks
area this morning with many locations about 5 to 10 inches so
far--a classic "slider" type system. HRRR model is showing
additional snow around the I-80 corridor through about 11am this
morning, then shifting south towards Highway 50 late morning and
into the afternoon.
Additional snowfall of up to a few inches will be possible over
the next few hours, but snow will get lighter and have trouble
sticking as we get into the afternoon hours. Also, road
conditions should be improving as well as roads start to melt
off. Unstable conditions will keep snow showers and clouds around
through the afternoon as well, temperatures may struggle to reach
40 degrees in the valleys of western NV. Hoon
AVIATION...
Moderate to heavy snow at KRNO is causing IFR CIG/VIS. These
conditions will likely continue through the morning at KRNO, with
conditions beginning to improve this afternoon. Additional
snowfall is expected, but with temperatures rising only an inch
or two of slush will accumulate on the runways. Conditions have
improved to VFR at KTVL, but as showers pick up this afternoon, we
could have conditions lower back down to MVFR/IFR. Hoon
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 619 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
UPDATE...
Band of moderate to occasionally heavy snow continues along and
north of the I-80 corridor with the southern edge of the band
sliding ever so slowly south toward Carson City-Dayton. Snow
amounts have been in the 2 to 5 inch range thus far in the heavier
snow bands with gusty north winds resulting in localized blowing
and drifting snow. Latest finer scale HRRR model run indicates
only a very slow drift south and east during the morning hours and
then accelerating southward around 18-20z. There may be occasional
letups at KTRK-KRNO-KLOL-KCXP, but given the stationary nature of
this system, CIGS/VSBY will remain restricted with MVFR/periods of
IFR continuing through 18z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
UPDATE...
The band continues to develop near and north of I-80 at this hour.
Latest models keep the band in this vicinity through 8 AM before
it slowly shifts south. Updating to keep most snow accumulation
near and north of I-80 and reducing accumulations near and south
of Highway 50. Also canceling the advisory for southern Lyon
County as the band will not make it there until late morning. By
then, solar heating will be enough to preclude any road
accumulation. Wallmann
SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue moving through the Sierra and
Western Nevada this morning. Snow showers will occur behind the
front today with the heaviest band expected along I-80 this morning.
The upper low will continue to influence area weather into Wednesday
as it slowly pulls east with scattered showers and cold
temperatures. Mild and dry weather returns for late week.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue moving through the Sierra and
Western Nevada this morning. Snow showers will occur behind the
front today with the heaviest band expected along I-80 this
morning. The upper low will continue to influence area weather
into Wednesday as it slowly pulls east with scattered showers and
cold temperatures. Mild and dry weather returns for late week.
SHORT TERM...
The snow event is getting underway as I write this. The surface
cold front is now along a line from Portola to Palomino Valley and
then almost to Highway 50 in Churchill County. Showers have
developed west of the crest and are moving east along the
boundary. Currently, temps are mild from I-80 southward and around
40-45 degrees, but are in the 30s behind the front. With precip
now moving in along I-80, areas below 5000 feet will start as
rain, but expect it to change to snow north of Highway 50 by 6 AM.
As for the band, the NAM/GFS/HRRR are hitting the I-80 corridor
the hardest. The NAM actually shows close to 1" of water in the
Reno/Sparks North Valleys. This is likely overdone, but 1/2" seems
plausible. With the cold air coming in, this will mostly be snow
and 3-6" of snow seems likely along the I-80 corridor above 4500
feet. Lighter amounts farther south away from this main band.
Roads will be slick this morning near I-80 and also into eastern
Plumas County due to the snow. Be prepared for a longer than
normal commute and the advisories will continue as is.
One thing to note is that the band doesn`t make it to southern
Lyon County until late morning. If this occurs, any snow that
falls will melt on impact, especially on the roads due to the
higher late March sun angle.
As we move into the afternoon, the cold pool moves overhead and
expect snow showers to continue across the area, but little
accumulation due to solar heating. Any lake effect for Pyramid
Lake looks less likely today as models now show the winds being
more Northeast, and also 30+ kts at 700 mb. This is in addition
to the diurnal minimum in LES during the afternoon. Still, plenty
of showers will be around in the instability.
The upper low then only slowly pulls away into Wednesday. A
northeast flow will continue on the backside Tuesday and
Wednesday. Showers look more likely Tuesday as the cold pool
remains close enough. Wednesday the instability is weaker and more
south of I-80 so just have a slight chance of showers there.
Temperatures will slowly moderate from today`s much below average
readings, but remain below normal into Wednesday. Wallmann
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...
Only minor changes were made as the previous forecast thinking is on
track. Temperatures will begin to warm Thursday although northeast
flow aloft will persist for one more day and keep the warmup slow
initially. This will be the poorest day for mixing as surface
warming will not keep up with warming temperatures aloft, resulting
in moderate inversions. Friday, we expect temperatures to jump 7-10
degrees with a better mixing profile.
For the weekend, instability and weak shortwave may be sufficient
for isolated showers (probably not much more) across far northeast
CA and northwest NV. Given the northern track of this shortwave,
showers in the Sierra are unlikely and we have removed the mention
there. Otherwise, it is going to be an unseasonably mild weekend
with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 Sierra valleys and mid
60s to low 70s western NV valleys.
AVIATION...
A cold front moving southward into western NV early this morning
will continue to drop south and allow colder air to settle into the
I-80/Hwy 50 corridors. Meanwhile, instability continues to increase
as upper low drops into the region with band of rain and snow
intensifying near and north of I-80. Some models are indicating some
impressive bands of precipitation developing through 15z and right
now, it appears that zone will be very close to where it is setting
up currently which would have bigger impacts for KTRK-KRNO-KLOL.
Temps and dewpoints are currently too warm for much accumulation
below 5000 feet and this will likely remain the case outside of
heavier bands of precipitation even though we do anticipate a
changeover to all snow during the morning hours. So the key to
getting accumulation on area runways will be location of most
intense snow bands prior to 16z. Light accumulations are already
occurring at KTRK and we will just have to monitor radar trends for
KRNO-KLOL. The band is forecast to slide south into Mono-Mineral
County this afternoon and evening with some light accumulations
possible at KMMH near or after sundown. Right now, due to the timing
of the band (later in the morning) at KTVL-KCXP-KNFL, accumulations
look minimal. There could still be some brief slushy accumulations
if snow showers become sufficiently heavy. But any accumulation
will melt quickly once the snow showers pass.
Otherwise, expect periods of IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBY during snow showers
with terrain obscurement, especially close to the Sierra. Hohmann
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
1000 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO
AREAS FROM LAS VEGAS NORTHWARD TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN SLOWLY PULL AWAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...STILL ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT PEAKING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 50 MPH LIKELY...WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTS EXCEEDING 65 MPH. BLOWING DUST ALREADY PROBLEMATIC THIS
MORNING WITH HENDERSON AIRPORT REPORTING 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT THIS
HOUR. NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
-OUTLER-
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT IS ON TAP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE TERMINAL AREA FROM 1500 TO 1800 PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 52 KTS. THE LATEST COMPUTER MODEL WIND
FORECASTS AND THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIVING FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BOOSTED CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS OF 48-52 KTS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE ALREADY GUSTING 30-35 KTS
THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND PEAK IN
INTENSITY BETWEEN 22Z-01Z. POCKETS OF SEVERE TURBULENCE CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A MAJOR WIND EVENT WILL STRIKE THE REGION TODAY
RESULTING IN POCKETS OF SEVERE TURBULENCE AND BLOWING DUST AND SAND.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG A BELT FROM RIDGECREST TO ELY AND
POINTS EAST. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 50KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A LARGE...COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY. NOT
MUCH CHANCE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE MAIN NOTABLE
CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS UPGRADING THE WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK. THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS A HAIR NORTH WITH THE
LATEST RUNS...AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PARK. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IS ALSO
LIKELY TODAY...AND REMAINS NOTED IN THE FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN...AND A MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ADDED TO PORTIONS OF
LINCOLN...NYE AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...HOWEVER NORTHERLY BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
TUESDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
RIDGES.TEMPERAURES WILL PLUNGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...CAUSING SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO 4-5K FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE SHOWERY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS ACROSS ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LATE AND
SHOWERY NATURE I DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTFUL
ACCUMULATION...MAINLY A TRACE TO 1-2 INCHES.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING A SLOW CLIMB AND WINDS MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN NATURE.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED EARLY
WEEK WEATHER WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE REGION AND A SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO. OPERATIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING ONLY MEAGER MOISTURE
PROFILES AT BEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST AREAS OF MOISTURE
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...VARIABLE
CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH EXITS THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
CONTINUED RAPID INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE ON HOW QUICK WE WILL WARM
UP...FORECAST HIGHS BY THE WEEKEND ARE GENERALLY 15-20 DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO FORECAST HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
OUR OVERALL PATTERN AND RESULTANT WEATHER AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF
THE REGION TODAY AND SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS...REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY...OR DAMAGE ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM....PULLIN
AVIATION.....ADAIR
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
933 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
Heavy snow amounts are being reported around the Reno- Sparks
area this morning with many locations about 5 to 10 inches so
far--a classic "slider" type system. HRRR model is showing
additional snow around the I-80 corridor through about 11am this
morning, then shifting south towards Highway 50 late morning and
into the afternoon.
Additional snowfall of up to a few inches will be possible over
the next few hours, but snow will get lighter and have trouble
sticking as we get into the afternoon hours. Also, road
conditions should be improving as well as roads start to melt
off. Unstable conditions will keep snow showers and clouds around
through the afternoon as well, temperatures may struggle to reach
40 degrees in the valleys of western NV. Hoon
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate to heavy snow at KRNO is causing IFR CIG/VIS. These
conditions will likely continue through the morning at KRNO, with
conditions beginning to improve this afternoon. Additional
snowfall is expected, but with temperatures rising only an inch
or two of slush will accumulate on the runways. Conditions have
improved to VFR at KTVL, but as showers pick up this afternoon, we
could have conditions lower back down to MVFR/IFR. Hoon
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 619 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
UPDATE...
Band of moderate to occasionally heavy snow continues along and
north of the I-80 corridor with the southern edge of the band
sliding ever so slowly south toward Carson City-Dayton. Snow
amounts have been in the 2 to 5 inch range thus far in the heavier
snow bands with gusty north winds resulting in localized blowing
and drifting snow. Latest finer scale HRRR model run indicates
only a very slow drift south and east during the morning hours and
then accelerating southward around 18-20z. There may be occasional
letups at KTRK-KRNO-KLOL-KCXP, but given the stationary nature of
this system, CIGS/VSBY will remain restricted with MVFR/periods of
IFR continuing through 18z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
UPDATE...
The band continues to develop near and north of I-80 at this hour.
Latest models keep the band in this vicinity through 8 AM before
it slowly shifts south. Updating to keep most snow accumulation
near and north of I-80 and reducing accumulations near and south
of Highway 50. Also canceling the advisory for southern Lyon
County as the band will not make it there until late morning. By
then, solar heating will be enough to preclude any road
accumulation. Wallmann
SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue moving through the Sierra and
Western Nevada this morning. Snow showers will occur behind the
front today with the heaviest band expected along I-80 this morning.
The upper low will continue to influence area weather into Wednesday
as it slowly pulls east with scattered showers and cold
temperatures. Mild and dry weather returns for late week.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue moving through the Sierra and
Western Nevada this morning. Snow showers will occur behind the
front today with the heaviest band expected along I-80 this
morning. The upper low will continue to influence area weather
into Wednesday as it slowly pulls east with scattered showers and
cold temperatures. Mild and dry weather returns for late week.
SHORT TERM...
The snow event is getting underway as I write this. The surface
cold front is now along a line from Portola to Palomino Valley and
then almost to Highway 50 in Churchill County. Showers have
developed west of the crest and are moving east along the
boundary. Currently, temps are mild from I-80 southward and around
40-45 degrees, but are in the 30s behind the front. With precip
now moving in along I-80, areas below 5000 feet will start as
rain, but expect it to change to snow north of Highway 50 by 6 AM.
As for the band, the NAM/GFS/HRRR are hitting the I-80 corridor
the hardest. The NAM actually shows close to 1" of water in the
Reno/Sparks North Valleys. This is likely overdone, but 1/2" seems
plausible. With the cold air coming in, this will mostly be snow
and 3-6" of snow seems likely along the I-80 corridor above 4500
feet. Lighter amounts farther south away from this main band.
Roads will be slick this morning near I-80 and also into eastern
Plumas County due to the snow. Be prepared for a longer than
normal commute and the advisories will continue as is.
One thing to note is that the band doesn`t make it to southern
Lyon County until late morning. If this occurs, any snow that
falls will melt on impact, especially on the roads due to the
higher late March sun angle.
As we move into the afternoon, the cold pool moves overhead and
expect snow showers to continue across the area, but little
accumulation due to solar heating. Any lake effect for Pyramid
Lake looks less likely today as models now show the winds being
more Northeast, and also 30+ kts at 700 mb. This is in addition
to the diurnal minimum in LES during the afternoon. Still, plenty
of showers will be around in the instability.
The upper low then only slowly pulls away into Wednesday. A
northeast flow will continue on the backside Tuesday and
Wednesday. Showers look more likely Tuesday as the cold pool
remains close enough. Wednesday the instability is weaker and more
south of I-80 so just have a slight chance of showers there.
Temperatures will slowly moderate from today`s much below average
readings, but remain below normal into Wednesday. Wallmann
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...
Only minor changes were made as the previous forecast thinking is on
track. Temperatures will begin to warm Thursday although northeast
flow aloft will persist for one more day and keep the warmup slow
initially. This will be the poorest day for mixing as surface
warming will not keep up with warming temperatures aloft, resulting
in moderate inversions. Friday, we expect temperatures to jump 7-10
degrees with a better mixing profile.
For the weekend, instability and weak shortwave may be sufficient
for isolated showers (probably not much more) across far northeast
CA and northwest NV. Given the northern track of this shortwave,
showers in the Sierra are unlikely and we have removed the mention
there. Otherwise, it is going to be an unseasonably mild weekend
with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 Sierra valleys and mid
60s to low 70s western NV valleys.
AVIATION...
A cold front moving southward into western NV early this morning
will continue to drop south and allow colder air to settle into the
I-80/Hwy 50 corridors. Meanwhile, instability continues to increase
as upper low drops into the region with band of rain and snow
intensifying near and north of I-80. Some models are indicating some
impressive bands of precipitation developing through 15z and right
now, it appears that zone will be very close to where it is setting
up currently which would have bigger impacts for KTRK-KRNO-KLOL.
Temps and dewpoints are currently too warm for much accumulation
below 5000 feet and this will likely remain the case outside of
heavier bands of precipitation even though we do anticipate a
changeover to all snow during the morning hours. So the key to
getting accumulation on area runways will be location of most
intense snow bands prior to 16z. Light accumulations are already
occurring at KTRK and we will just have to monitor radar trends for
KRNO-KLOL. The band is forecast to slide south into Mono-Mineral
County this afternoon and evening with some light accumulations
possible at KMMH near or after sundown. Right now, due to the timing
of the band (later in the morning) at KTVL-KCXP-KNFL, accumulations
look minimal. There could still be some brief slushy accumulations
if snow showers become sufficiently heavy. But any accumulation
will melt quickly once the snow showers pass.
Otherwise, expect periods of IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBY during snow showers
with terrain obscurement, especially close to the Sierra. Hohmann
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning NVZ003-004.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
604 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WIND IS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ONE MORE
TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES THAT WILL
DIVE SE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THE 2ND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE GONE BY THE TIME THE S/W ARRIVES. THE
NEAR TERM HRRR AND RAP PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF QPF TONIGHT...MOSTLY
UNTIL 06Z. THUS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
QUESTION IS PRECIP TYPE AS LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE COULD MEAN
SPRINKLES VERSUS FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THINK TEMPS WILL
TRY AND STAY ABOVE FREEZING AS LONG AS THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS SO
DON`T THINK A PROBLEM WITH FREEZING TYPE OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK SHOULD REACH NORTHWEST OHIO
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT MAY STAY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
ELSEWHERE. THE WIND AND CLOUDS WILL KEEPS TEMPS FROM CRASHING. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 30S...MAYBE SOME UPPER 20S IN THE COLDER
SECTIONS OF INLAND NW PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WHAT
REMAINS OF THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL SHIFT INLAND AND GRADUALLY MIX AWAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 50 ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE UPPER
30S/AROUND 40 NORTHWEST PA.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING AND IT WILL GET CHILLY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL OFF OR
COULD BEGIN TO RISE ELSEWHERE AS THE SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A VARIETY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY MIXED WITH SOME SUNSHINE. OUR WARM UPS HAVE BEEN FAST
AND FURIOUS THIS SPRING AND WILL NOT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE OF LOWER
60S MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER COLORADO LOW EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING A NICE PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE
DEVELOPING JET AS A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TRIES TO PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE. NO WAY TO KNOW HOW MUCH THINGS WILL
PHASE BUT IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO FORECAST AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY ALTHOUGH IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER THURSDAY THERE MAY BE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER GIVEN THE WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE TIME OF DAY. HIGHS AT LEAST
IN THE MID 60S AND IT COULD BE ANOTHER OF THOSE DAYS WHERE
TEMPERATURES SNEAK TO 70 IF WE CAN GET SOME SUNSHINE AND SEVERAL
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THIS MEANS ONLY ONE THING FOR THE EAST. DEEP DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING AN END TO THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE BEGINNINGS OF ANOTHER WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL OUT TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A
BROAD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS PRESENT ALONG WITH SHOTS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION...CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.
UNFORTUNATELY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA...MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT AND WILL KEEP A MINIMAL
CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...BY MONDAY...A
WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT MODELS
SO FAR KEEP THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG WARM-UPS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL ALSO EXIT TO THE EAST AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE LOCAL AREA
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EVENTUALLY CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM WEST TO
EAST TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW GALES AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE DISCONTINUED. I THINK THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 9 PM. LATER SHIFT CAN GO AHEAD AND DROP IT AS
APPROPRIATE. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST OF THE LAKE AND
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE GALE WARNING UP THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT FOR TUESDAY AND VARIABLE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY. COLD DOME WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
STRONGER WINDS OVER LAND RATHER THAN OVER THE WATER. EVENTUALLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVERCOME THE COLD DOME
ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO 25 KNOTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THE WINDS
FINALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ061-148-149-
168-169.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MUCH OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLOWLY TIGHTENS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY
TOMORROW MORNING...AND SOME STRATUS APPEARS LIKELY. THE STRATUS
DECK IS MOST LIKELY IN THE WEST...WHERE IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE
LOWER. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016/
UPDATE...
INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY. ALSO...TWEAKED AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS.
DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
INCREASED HIGHS BASED ON ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WHICH WILL
INCREASE VERTICAL MIXING. LATEST HRRR RUNS SEEM TO HAVE A GREAT
HANDLE ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVES.
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY TO LOWER
THEM IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASE THEM NEAR THE RED RIVER.
STILL APPEARS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR IN FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR GAGE...WOODWARD...AND CHEYENNE...AND THE
LOWEST AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR
PONCA CITY...ENID...AND STILLWATER...GENERALLY 15 TO 25 PERCENT.
PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016/
DISCUSSION...
28/12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH RETURN TO AND INCREASE IN
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG ACROSS FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS TOWARD AND AFTER 16Z. VFR STRATUS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO AT LEAST WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT INTACT EARLY THIS
MORNING.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN...
THIS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER. WARMER AND STRONGER WIND
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT RH VALUES SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. CRITICAL FIRE DANGER STILL POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR WEST/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE
DRYLINE. MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EASILY IN THE FUEL
TRANSITION PHASE AND THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD GIVE
BRIEF WINDOW FOR FINE FUEL DRYING.
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA UP INTO KANSAS ON LEADING EDGE OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE DEEPENS. CHANCES
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY ARE LOW. AS FAR AS SEVERE CONVECTION...IT STILL APPEARS
THAT ANY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF
THE MENTIONED SHOWERS AND STORMS ORGANIZE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
SUGGESTED BY MODELS...OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE IN QUESTION
FOR OUR CWA.
DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 46 70 56 / 0 10 10 30
HOBART OK 71 49 72 57 / 0 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 49 75 59 / 0 10 10 30
GAGE OK 71 48 73 51 / 0 10 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 70 42 70 53 / 0 10 10 30
DURANT OK 69 46 72 61 / 0 0 10 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY. ALSO...TWEAKED AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
INCREASED HIGHS BASED ON ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WHICH WILL
INCREASE VERTICAL MIXING. LATEST HRRR RUNS SEEM TO HAVE A GREAT
HANDLE ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVES.
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY TO LOWER
THEM IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASE THEM NEAR THE RED RIVER.
STILL APPEARS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR IN FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR GAGE...WOODWARD...AND CHEYENNE...AND THE
LOWEST AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR
PONCA CITY...ENID...AND STILLWATER...GENERALLY 15 TO 25 PERCENT.
PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016/
DISCUSSION...
28/12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH RETURN TO AND INCREASE IN
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG ACROSS FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS TOWARD AND AFTER 16Z. VFR STRATUS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO AT LEAST WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT INTACT EARLY THIS
MORNING.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN...
THIS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER. WARMER AND STRONGER WIND
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT RH VALUES SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. CRITICAL FIRE DANGER STILL POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR WEST/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE
DRYLINE. MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EASILY IN THE FUEL
TRANSITION PHASE AND THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD GIVE
BRIEF WINDOW FOR FINE FUEL DRYING.
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA UP INTO KANSAS ON LEADING EDGE OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE DEEPENS. CHANCES
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY ARE LOW. AS FAR AS SEVERE CONVECTION...IT STILL APPEARS
THAT ANY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF
THE MENTIONED SHOWERS AND STORMS ORGANIZE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
SUGGESTED BY MODELS...OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE IN QUESTION
FOR OUR CWA.
DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 46 70 56 / 0 10 10 30
HOBART OK 71 49 72 57 / 0 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 49 75 59 / 0 10 10 30
GAGE OK 71 48 73 51 / 0 10 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 70 42 70 53 / 0 10 10 30
DURANT OK 69 46 72 61 / 0 0 10 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1245 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
CLOUDS WERE ON THE DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAINLY WEST OF A MEDFORD TO EAGLE RIVER
LINE. THIS CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH SUNRISE...
THEN ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
WHERE SKIES DO CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE...BUT ENOUGH
WIND ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD KEEP IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. LAST RUN OR TWO OF THE GFS DEPICTED SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE HRRR DEPICTED SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
LINCOLN AND ONEIDA COUNTIES AROUND 21-22Z. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATED STEEP LAPSE OF 8C FROM 950 TO 700MB AT RHINELANDER.
BASED ON THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WAS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. DID BUMP UP CLOUD COVER SOME ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
BASED ON THE LAYER CU RULE. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO INCREASE THEM A
LITTLE BIT MORE AS THE CU RULE WOULD SUGGEST SKIES WOULD GO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH.
ANY LINGERING SPRINKLES SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. THE COMBINATION OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOW COVER ACROSS THE
NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET LATER TONIGHT. WENT AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. ON TUESDAY...INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MIDDLE 50S. READINGS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER NEAR THE BAY
AND LAKE DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY. HIGHS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL BARELY CLIMB ABOVE 40.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
EXPECT PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW ALOFT. WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND MODELS INDICATED SOME MINOR
CAPE SO HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND AN INCH FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO RISING RIVER LEVELS.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AS IT
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO
MAINLY SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...BUT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT QUICKLY DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WITH 7000 TO
10000 FT BASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VIRGA FALLING FROM ANY
OF THESE CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE DOWNDRAFTS THAT MIGHT AFFECT LIGHT
AIRCRAFT. PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
OVER AREAS WITH SNOW COVER.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM