Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/27/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1042 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...AND
THEN RETREATS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE MIDWEST. THE LOWS PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY...SENDING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. ONCE AGAIN...JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD AND SKY THIS EVE BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK. STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION...MOST OF IT ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
IS REMAINS DIFFICULT TO SEE THE EXTENT OVER THE OCEAN NOW THAT
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN. LIGHT E/SE FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE EXPANSE AND COVERAGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN
QUESTION. PREFERENCE WAS TO FOLLOW HIRES MODELS...IN PARTICULAR
THE HRRR AND NAM. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER LOOKS
TO BE TOO DRY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE E/SE FLOW WILL BACK MORE TO THE E/NE BY
DAYBREAK AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL FEATURE AN
AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE MIDWEST ON SUN THAT TRACKS
QUICKLY ENE AND THROUGH THE NE ON MON. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT AND THEN OCCLUDES TO
THE NORTH ON MON. THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND POSSIBLY A TRIPLE POINT
LOW PASS NEAR THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE AREA
MAY BRIEFLY WARM SECTOR...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK AT BEST DUE TO
THE MARINE LAYER. WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED
CONVECTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FORECAST.
THUS...LOOKING AT A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION EVENT WITH RAIN WORKING
INTO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. THE
FAST NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER AN
INCH. IN ADDITION...WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP.
OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRYING OUT WITH A GUSTY W/SW FLOW DEVELOPING.
AS FOR TEMPS...HIGH ON SUN WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH THE CLOUD COVER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
IT WILL BE WARMER AS WELL ON MON WITH READINGS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...TRANSITIONING FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS E OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH A DIGGING WRN CANADIAN TROUGH AND CONTINUE
EWD...IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST THU/FRI.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG CAA AND
SHARP PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRES
DEPARTING TO THE NE MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH TUE. GUSTS COULD APPROACH OR EVEN REACH WIND ADVSY
LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL FALL JUST SHORT. WINDS ABATE TUE NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD
AND THE OFFSHORE ON WED WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND THU BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND LOW PRES MOVING TOWARDS/THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIVERGE. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT DETAILS OF THIS LATE WEEK STORM
SYSTEM...MAINLY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH...ALTHOUGH UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME AS LOW PRES TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SE CANADA.
OTHER THAN TUE NIGHT WHERE CONDS APPEAR OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING RESULTING IN LOWS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS REDEVELOPS TONIGHT. CIGS GENERALLY AROUND
1000-2000 FT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR INLAND THE STRATUS
GETS. THE LOW CIGS ARE ALREADY ACROSS LONG ISLAND...THE NYC
TERMINALS...AND COASTAL CT. IT SHOULD TAKE A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO REACH KSWF. THE OTHER QUESTION IS...DO CIGS LOWER TO
IFR. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS...BUT THINKING COASTAL LOCATIONS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AND IF IT OCCURS IT WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...MAINLY OUT OF THE E-SE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CONDS LIFTING TO VFR EARLY.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...IFR IN -RA/FOG AS LOW PRES PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. W-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS MONDAY
NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING THE
DAY...THEN WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG. S WINDS 15-20 KT WITH
20-30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH AND NWPS GUIDANCE BY 1-2 FT BASED ON OVER FORECAST
AT BUOYS. THIS WILL KEEP WATER LEVELS JUST BELOW SCA ON THE
OCEAN.
THERE`S THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS ON ALL WATERS MON
NIGHT AND TUE AS WINDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW
PRES DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE
MIDWEST...COLD ADVECTION AND SHARP PRES RISES. SCA MAY LINGER INTO
TUE NIGHT. BRIEF TRANQUIL CONDS ON WED WITH HIGH PRES OHD MOVING
OFFSHORE. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN WITH SCA POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT
BETWEEN THIS STRONG HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW PRES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUN NGT AND MON. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...24/DW
HYDROLOGY...24/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
749 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...AND
THEN RETREATS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE MIDWEST. THE LOWS PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY...SENDING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD AND SKY THIS EVE BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK. STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO
MOVE BACK ACROSS LONG ISLAND...ALTHOUGH IS DIFFICULT TO SEE THE
EXTENT OVER THE OCEAN NOW THAT HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN. LIGHT
E/SE FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE EXPANSE AND COVERAGE OF
THE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN QUESTION. PREFERENCE WAS TO FOLLOW HIRES
MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE HRRR AND NAM. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AS
THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE E/SE FLOW WILL BACK MORE TO THE E/NE BY
DAYBREAK AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL FEATURE AN
AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE MIDWEST ON SUN THAT TRACKS
QUICKLY ENE AND THROUGH THE NE ON MON. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT AND THEN OCCLUDES TO
THE NORTH ON MON. THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND POSSIBLY A TRIPLE POINT
LOW PASS NEAR THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE AREA
MAY BRIEFLY WARM SECTOR...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK AT BEST DUE TO
THE MARINE LAYER. WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED
CONVECTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FORECAST.
THUS...LOOKING AT A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION EVENT WITH RAIN WORKING
INTO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. THE
FAST NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER AN
INCH. IN ADDITION...WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP.
OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRYING OUT WITH A GUSTY W/SW FLOW DEVELOPING.
AS FOR TEMPS...HIGH ON SUN WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH THE CLOUD COVER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
IT WILL BE WARMER AS WELL ON MON WITH READINGS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...TRANSITIONING FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS E OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH A DIGGING WRN CANADIAN TROUGH AND CONTINUE
EWD...IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST THU/FRI.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG CAA AND
SHARP PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRES
DEPARTING TO THE NE MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH TUE. GUSTS COULD APPROACH OR EVEN REACH WIND ADVSY
LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL FALL JUST SHORT. WINDS ABATE TUE NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD
AND THE OFFSHORE ON WED WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND THU BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND LOW PRES MOVING TOWARDS/THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIVERGE. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT DETAILS OF THIS LATE WEEK STORM
SYSTEM...MAINLY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH...ALTHOUGH UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME AS LOW PRES TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SE CANADA.
OTHER THAN TUE NIGHT WHERE CONDS APPEAR OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING RESULTING IN LOWS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SCT-BKN CIGS AT 1000-3000 FT OVER SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS REDEVELOPS TONIGHT. LATEST MAV GUIDANCE KEEP
THE REGION VFR...WHILE THE LATEST MET GUIDANCE BRINGS CONDITIONS
DOWN TO IFR. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST
AFTER 03Z. CIGS THEN LOWER TO IFR OR BELOW DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...MAINLY OUT OF THE E-SE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CONDS LIFTING TO VFR EARLY.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...IFR IN -RA/FOG AS LOW PRES PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. W-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS MONDAY
NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING THE
DAY...THEN WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG. S WINDS 15-20 KT WITH
20-30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH AND NWPS GUIDANCE BY 1-2 FT BASED ON OVER FORECAST
AT BUOYS. THIS WILL KEEP WATER LEVELS JUST BELOW SCA ON THE
OCEAN.
THERE`S THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS ON ALL WATERS MON
NIGHT AND TUE AS WINDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW
PRES DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE
MIDWEST...COLD ADVECTION AND SHARP PRES RISES. SCA MAY LINGER INTO
TUE NIGHT. BRIEF TRANQUIL CONDS ON WED WITH HIGH PRES OHD MOVING
OFFSHORE. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN WITH SCA POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT
BETWEEN THIS STRONG HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW PRES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUN NGT AND MON. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...24/DW
HYDROLOGY...24/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
300 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR
THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN DISSIPATING LINE OF SHOWERS WORKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LI.
LATEST HRRR HAS THIS LINE MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING WITH
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST PLACES LIKELY ALREADY REACHED THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE
DAY...AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY...EVEN FALL...AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH.
COLD FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT COME THROUGH UNTIL THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE NY METRO AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NY METRO AND ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS INTERIOR
AWAY FROM MARITIME INVERSION. POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE POOLING UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PAC ENERGY
ENTERING THE WEST COAST EARLIER THIS EVENING DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN LIFTING TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ENERGY IN
COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY WILL HAVE A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A COASTAL LOW
BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION WITH
RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN STORM TIMING...TRACK AND
INTENSITY DETAILS ARE STILL LOW.
SBU ENSEMBLES SENSITIVITY AND FUZZY CLUSTERING ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CMC/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM. SENSITIVITY IN EXACT PROGRESSION AND EVOLUTION OF LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTHENING OF THE PAC
SHORTWAVE AS IT INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY WEAKER
LOW...WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE A LESS PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY
STRONGER LOW. TO ADD TO THIS...THE PHASING DETAILS WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF
COMPLEXITY IN STRENGTH AND WIND/QPF POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BASED ON THIS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH POPS
COVERING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD TO ACCOUNT
FOR TIMING ISSUES EVIDENT IN ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...GUSTY NW WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY AND TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...VEERING FROM THE SW TO W...THEN NW. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ESTIMATED AROUND 21Z KSWF...22-23Z NYC TERMINALS...AND 00-01Z
EASTERN TERMINALS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH AROUND 09Z.
THERE REMAINS MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST
CHANCE MAY BE EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER.
IFR CONDITIONS KISP AND KGON UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE
VFR. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHRA.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO W THEN NW MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS 1-2
HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO W THEN NW MAY VARY
BY AS MUCH AS 1-2 HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY VARY FROM 230-280 THRU 20Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY VARY FROM 230-280 THRU 20Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO W THEN NW MAY VARY
BY AS MUCH AS 1-2 HOURS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO W THEN NW MAY VARY
BY AS MUCH AS 1-2 HOURS. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE TIMING OF THE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FEET. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH...BUT SCA LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS OCEAN AND SOUTHERN BAYS...AND
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE COOL WATERS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.
SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY SWELLS MAY LINGER SCA SEAS INTO SAT NIGHT.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ON MONDAY...BUT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCA
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN GALES...MON NIGHT INTO TUE IN WAKE OF
INTENSIFYING LOW PRES TRACKING TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA TODAY WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNT BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR
GREATER OF RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/NV
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...FIG/NV
HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1216 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR
THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
IS APPROACHING NYC. LATEST HRRR HAS THIS LINE MOVING INTO LONG
ISLAND AND CT...AND THEN SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER CT/LI INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LOWER QPF AMOUNTS...AS PRECIP IS GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE.
MOST PLACES LIKELY ALREADY REACHED THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE
DAY...AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY...EVEN FALL...AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH.
COLD FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT COME THROUGH UNTIL THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE NY METRO AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NY METRO AND ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS INTERIOR
AWAY FROM MARITIME INVERSION. POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE POOLING UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PAC ENERGY
ENTERING THE WEST COAST EARLIER THIS EVENING DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN LIFTING TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ENERGY IN
COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY WILL HAVE A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A COASTAL LOW
BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION WITH
RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN STORM TIMING...TRACK AND
INTENSITY DETAILS ARE STILL LOW.
SBU ENSEMBLES SENSITIVITY AND FUZZY CLUSTERING ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CMC/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM. SENSITIVITY IN EXACT PROGRESSION AND EVOLUTION OF LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTHENING OF THE PAC
SHORTWAVE AS IT INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY WEAKER
LOW...WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE A LESS PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY
STRONGER LOW. TO ADD TO THIS...THE PHASING DETAILS WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF
COMPLEXITY IN STRENGTH AND WIND/QPF POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BASED ON THIS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH POPS
COVERING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD TO ACCOUNT
FOR TIMING ISSUES EVIDENT IN ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...GUSTY NW WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY AND TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING NYC TERMINALS...TRACKING NE AT 40 KT.
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED EVENT AND WILL PASS EAST BY 17Z. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH THE ACTIVITY AND AN ISOLATED
TSRA CAN NOT BE RULED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN TAFS.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...18Z-21Z.
LLWS LASTS UNTIL AROUND 18Z AT KGON. WINDS VEER TO SW WITH G20KT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE W THEN NW MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. TIMING OF
WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON MAY NEED TO BE DELAYED BY SEVERAL
HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO W THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE
DELAYED 1-2 HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO W THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE
DELAYED 1-2 HOURS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO W THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE
DELAYED 1-2 HOURS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO SW THIS MORNING MAY BE
DELAYED BY AN HOUR...AS WELL WIND SHIFT TO THE W THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR POSSIBLE. WIND SHIFT TO W THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BE DELAYED BY SEVERAL HOURS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FEET. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH...BUT SCA LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS OCEAN AND SOUTHERN BAYS...AND
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE COOL WATERS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.
SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY SWELLS MAY LINGER SCA SEAS INTO SAT NIGHT.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ON MONDAY...BUT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCA
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN GALES...MON NIGHT INTO TUE IN WAKE OF
INTENSIFYING LOW PRES TRACKING TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA TODAY WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNT BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR
GREATER OF RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/NV
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JMC/DW
MARINE...FIG/NV
HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1156 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR
THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
IS APPROACHING NYC. LATEST HRRR HAS THIS LINE MOVING INTO LONG
ISLAND AND CT...AND THEN SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER CT/LI INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LOWER QPF AMOUNTS...AS PRECIP IS GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE.
MOST PLACES LIKELY ALREADY REACHED THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE
DAY...AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY...EVEN FALL...AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH.
COLD FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT COME THROUGH UNTIL THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE NY METRO AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NY METRO AND ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS INTERIOR
AWAY FROM MARITIME INVERSION. POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE POOLING UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PAC ENERGY
ENTERING THE WEST COAST EARLIER THIS EVENING DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN LIFTING TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ENERGY IN
COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY WILL HAVE A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A COASTAL LOW
BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION WITH
RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN STORM TIMING...TRACK AND
INTENSITY DETAILS ARE STILL LOW.
SBU ENSEMBLES SENSITIVITY AND FUZZY CLUSTERING ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CMC/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM. SENSITIVITY IN EXACT PROGRESSION AND EVOLUTION OF LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTHENING OF THE PAC
SHORTWAVE AS IT INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY WEAKER
LOW...WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE A LESS PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY
STRONGER LOW. TO ADD TO THIS...THE PHASING DETAILS WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF
COMPLEXITY IN STRENGTH AND WIND/QPF POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BASED ON THIS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH POPS
COVERING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD TO ACCOUNT
FOR TIMING ISSUES EVIDENT IN ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...GUSTY NW WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY AND TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF LI AND AND SE CT...BUT IS STILL
HUNG UP NEAR NYC. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF...WILL IMPACT KSWF 15Z-17Z...NYC TERMINALS/KHPN
17-19Z...AND KGON/KISP/KBDR 19Z-21Z. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWS
BY 1-2 HOURS.
THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH THE ACTIVITY AND AN ISOLATED
TSRA CAN NOT BE RULED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...18Z-21Z.
WINDS VEER TO THE SW AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NORTH...AND
INCREASE TO 15-20KT FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MRNG. LLWS LASTS
UNTIL AROUND 15Z...EXCEPT UNTIL AROUND 18Z AT KGON. THE ONLY OTHER
EXCEPTION IS KSWF...WHERE NO LLWS IS EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SW
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE W THEN NW
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20KT PROBABLE FROM MID AFTERNOON
ON.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. TIMING OF
WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON MAY NEED TO BE DELAYED BY SEVERAL
HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO W THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE
DELAYED BY SEVERAL HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO SW THIS MORNING MAY BE
DELAYED BY 1-2 HOURS...AS WELL WIND SHIFT TO THE W THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO SW THIS MORNING MAY BE
DELAYED BY 1-2 HOURS...AS WELL WIND SHIFT TO THE W THIS
AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VIS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER AFT THE
WRMFNT. WIND SHIFT TO SW THIS MORNING MAY BE DELAYED BY 1-2
HOURS...AS WELL WIND SHIFT TO THE W THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR THIS MRNG. WIND SHIFT TO W
THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE DELAYED BY SEVERAL HOURS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FEET. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH...BUT SCA LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS OCEAN AND SOUTHERN BAYS...AND
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE COOL WATERS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.
SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY SWELLS MAY LINGER SCA SEAS INTO SAT NIGHT.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ON MONDAY...BUT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCA
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN GALES...MON NIGHT INTO TUE IN WAKE OF
INTENSIFYING LOW PRES TRACKING TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA TODAY WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNT BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR
GREATER OF RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/NV
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JMC/DW
MARINE...FIG/NV
HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IMPACT THE REGION ON
MONDAY, WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 989 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER SRN ONTARIO EARLY
THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW AND WAS
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE, THE BACKDOOR
FRONT THAT STALLED OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT IS FINALLY
STARTING TO PROGRESS NWD THRU SE PA AND C NJ. VERY MILD TEMPS IN THE
60S AND GUSTY SLY WINDS RESIDE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHILE TEMPS
WERE ONLY IN THE 40S UNDER A LIGHT ELY FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE TEMPERATURE AT THE OFFICE RECENTLY JUMPED FROM 45 TO 63 DEGREES
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT A SIMILAR WARM UP FARTHER NORTH INTO
NE PA AND NW NJ ONCE THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVES LATER THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES IN E PA.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG SLY WINDS ACCOMPANYING A LOW-LEVEL
JET STREAK ENHANCES LIFT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR, RAP AND HIRES NCEP WRF ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE A TEMPORARILY BREAK IN THE PRECIP DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING AFTER THE INITIAL OVERRUNNING SHOWERS PROGRESSES TO OUR
EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS THEN FORECAST TO REDEVELOP
TOWARD MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THESE SAME MODELS ALSO SHOW 250-500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A
WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A
SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.
ASSUMING WE GET AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DURING PEAK HEATING, MAX
TEMPS IN THE 70S ARE WELL WITHIN REACH FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS ARE IN THE 60S FARTHER N/W WITH AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. NW
WINDS AND CAA IN ITS WAKE WILL RESULT IN A TEMPS DROPPING STEADILY
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. SUB-FREEZING LOWS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE PA AND NW NJ. LOWS IN THE 40S WILL BE COMMON
EAST OF THE FALL LINE (A FAR CRY FROM THE MILD READINGS IN THE
60S EARLY THIS MORNING).
ASIDE FROM SCT CAA STRATOCU OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, EXPECT LITTLE
ELSE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE START OF THE
EXTENDD PD AND FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE BUILD IN ON
SAT, ANCHORED OVER NERN CANADA SAT NIGHT AND MOVG OFFSHORE ON SUN.
SO, WHILE THE WX WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEEKEND, A PERSISTENT NE TO E
FLOW WILL KEEP IT FEELING COOLER WITH CLOUDS AROUND ESPECIALLY ON
SUN AND NR THE CST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AND MOVES NEWD TWD THE OH VLY AND MID-ATLC ON MON. THIS LOW
WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA MAINLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MON,
BEFORE IT MOVES AWAY. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WRT THIS SYS.
HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FOR MON NIGHT
THRU WED BEFORE MOVG OFFSHORE ON THU. THIS PD WILL FEATURE DRY WX.
BY LATER THU, LOW PRES IN CANADA WILL BRING ANOTHER CDFNT TWD THE
AREA AND RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE.
TEMPS GENLY LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NRML THRU THE PD.TUE WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE CFP. THU CUD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EARLIER FOG AND STRATUS HAS ERODED ACROSS THE NRN TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. HOWEVER,
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THRU DAYBREAK AS SHOWERS
MOVE IN. MAINLY EXPECTING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THESE SHOWERS. WE
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE LLWS IN THE TAFS THRU MID MRNG WITH A 45-55 KT
SLY LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. SLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THIS
MORNING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID
MORNING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO HIGH END MVFR OR VFR
SHORTLY AFTER. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE THIS MRNG
AND EARLY AFTN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. THERE IS A NON-ZERO
CHANCE OF TS WITH THIS CONVECTION BUT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z
TAFS THIS FAR OUT. THE WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE SW THIS MORNING
AND THEN W-NW THIS AFTN IN WAKE OF FROPA. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY AT TIMES BETWEEN 15-25 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...VFR OVERALL. NE WIND SAT THEN BECMG E SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN GENLY AROUND 10 KTS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR/IFR CONDS LOCALLY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MDT CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
SUN NIGHT...CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN LATE AS PRECIP CHCS INCREASE
TWD MON MRNG. MVFR/IFR CONDS PSBL AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MON THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR/IFR MON INTO MON EVE AS LOW PRES BRINGS
PDS OF RAIN, MAINLY THRU ERLY AFTN. CONDS IMPROVE MON EVE TO VFR AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR. HIGH PRES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. GUSTY NW WIND 20 TO 25 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DE BAY AND COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS FOR
TODAY. THE WARM FRONT HAD FINALLY LIFTED NORTH OF OUR WATERS LAST
NIGHT. BEHIND IT, WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 KT TODAY. THE DIRECTION OF
THE WIND WILL INITIALLY BE SLY BUT SHIFT OUT OF THE SW LATER THIS
MRNG AND THEN EVENTUALLY W-NW DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT OFF THE NJ AND DE COAST WILL ADD TO
THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALLER VESSELS.
THE SCA CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY FOR
SEAS AROUND 5-6 FT. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THRUOUT
THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT..A FURTHER EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE DURG THE LATE MRNG ON SAT, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO IT ATTM. OTHERWISE BOTH WIND
AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THRU THE REMAINDER OF SAT.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
MON THRU TUE...SEAS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYS
AND BY LATE MON OR ERLY MON EVE SCA IS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO TUE
ERLY TUE. WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE MON NIGHT INTO ERLY TUE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
332 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MAY CLIP MARION AND FLAGLER
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. IN BETWEEN...A SPRINKLE OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. THE SIGNIFICANT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF HAS
HELD TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S. SO THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE DAY.
LOWERED POPS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND ECMWF DEVELOP CONVECTION THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AND BUMPED UP POPS THERE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING.
ON SATURDAY...CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF ONCE AGAIN...AND ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AND OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET IS FORECAST
TO NOSE INTO THE REGION...WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA SATURDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40-50 KNOTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AND ANY HEATING MAY LEAD TO A FEW
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...AND A MARGINAL RISK IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...WARMEST SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OVER FL PANHANDLE INTO
SE GA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RAINFALL ON
SUNDAY. UPPER-JET DIFFLUENCE WILL AID SHOWER AND TSTORM FORMATION
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF EXTENDING WEST OF OUR AREA. AS A SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK THROUGH
OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A THICK CLOUD
CANOPY WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY HOWEVER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
1000-1200 CAPE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH 40 KTS 0-6 KM
SHEAR. THEREFORE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THE INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY BE REALIZED. RAIN AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD AT 2-3 INCHES FOR INLAND SE GA AND NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER SE. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN FINALLY CLEARS OUT OF THE FORECAST BY MONDAY MORNING. LOWS
WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE
A WARM UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW
80S DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. SOME INDICATION BY THE
MODELS THAT A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIGHT LIFT NORTH AND
INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE ALONG THE EASTERNMOST COAST OF FL ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THE NEXT WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR RAIN DOES NOT
OCCUR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AT THE END OF THE WEEK
WHEN A FRONT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY GET NEAR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE BEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS BEFORE 18Z WILL BE AT KSSI AND KGNV. FOR NOW...PUT
VCTS IN AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 14-15Z. LIGHT WINDS TO LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY S TO SE WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 65 74 64 75 / 50 80 40 90
SSI 62 72 63 73 / 30 60 30 80
JAX 65 77 66 78 / 40 50 20 80
SGJ 65 78 67 78 / 50 50 20 70
GNV 66 80 67 80 / 50 50 20 70
OCF 67 82 67 83 / 50 50 20 60
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
KENNEDY/WALSH/NELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1107 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.Near Term [Through Today]...
An abundance of rain and embedded thunderstorms continues to
stream into the area from the southwest, just ahead of a surface
cold front. This is generally expected to continue through the
remainder of the late morning and into the afternoon, before
tapering off a bit in the late afternoon and evening as the LLJ
weakens and pivots to the east. PoPs and QPF were bumped up
slightly given the widespread nature of the rain. With that in
mind, and the dense cloud cover across the region, we also reduced
high temperatures today into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
The 12Z Tallahassee sounding and objective RAP analysis do show
some moderately steep mid-level lapse rates around 6.5 C/km which
are currently supporting some modest elevated instability. One
storm already produced quarter size hail near Panama City around
sunrise, and while storm intensity has recently decreased, we
can`t rule out one or two additional strong-severe storms. If they
were to occur, large hail would be the main threat.
&&
.Prev Discussion [703 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
This periods will be quite unsettled and confidence is increasing
that a flood threat will develop over the weekend. The front will
stall about half way across the forecast area tonight and remain
in place on Saturday before lifting back to the north. Forcing
for ascent will increase on Saturday with likely PoPs across most
of the forecast area. The potential for heavy rain is even greater
on Sunday and PoPs are now categorical across much of the forecast
area on that day. While isolated strong to severe storms could
occur this weekend (SPC does show a marginal risk for severe on
Sunday), the primary threat is definitely pivoting toward
flooding. See the hydro section below for a discussion on QPF.
.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Drier air will finally arrive on Monday when a cold front finally
sweeps all the deep-layer moisture to the east. After a couple of
dry and seasonable days, PoPs will return to the forecast for
Wednesday and Thursday as the next frontal system approaches.
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] MVFR CIGS prevail from ABY to ECP this
morning but may improve slightly as thunderstorms develop along the
coast and along the front over the next few hours. Conditions are
expected to improve to VFR this afternoon, but the guidance suggests
that another round of low CIGS and vsbys will be possible
Saturday morning.
.Marine...
Winds will remain onshore through the weekend and below headline
criteria. A westerly wind shift is expected with a cold frontal
passage on Monday with offshore winds in place from Monday night
into Tuesday.
.Fire Weather...
No red flag conditions are expected for the next several days.
.Hydrology...
We could easily see a couple of inches of rain on Saturday. When
combined with what we saw yesterday and expect today, this should
prime the area for what appears to be the day with the greatest
potential for flooding rains, Sunday. The official forecast calls
for widespread 2-inch totals on Sunday with three-day storm totals
of 3-4 inches. However, the latest ECAM run shows mean storm-total
rainfall around 6 inches across the northern half of the forecast
area with maximum totals up to a foot in some members. If we
continue to see persistence in these QPF totals, we would need to
put out a flash flood watch at some point. If rainfall totals are
on the higher end of what some of the CAMs are showing and fall
across the northern half of the HSA, we`d also be dealing with
another prolonged episode of river flooding.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 69 65 77 67 76 / 70 60 80 40 90
Panama City 69 63 72 67 72 / 80 60 80 50 90
Dothan 68 58 76 65 73 / 60 20 70 70 90
Albany 67 60 76 65 74 / 80 30 70 60 90
Valdosta 71 64 76 65 77 / 70 40 80 50 90
Cross City 72 67 80 67 80 / 60 50 60 20 50
Apalachicola 69 65 74 68 73 / 80 60 60 30 70
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
657 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE SUNRISE UPDATE.
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING...THEN STALL OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA AS ITS SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL
UPSTREAM IMPULSES THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
INTERACT WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE THAT
DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING QLCS TO THE SOUTH LATE
THURSDAY EVENING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE COAST MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS NEAR 60 PERCENT SEEMS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
COVERAGE AND TIMING INCREASES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LATEST TIMING NOTED IN THE
VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SETS...WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER
70S FOR ALL BUT FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE MID 70S LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION IS SLOWER TO FORM OR IF TEMPERATURES
WARM QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE...THEN HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S COULD OCCUR.
MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS YIELD MODEST INSTABILITY TODAY WITH SBCAPE
1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KT COUPLED WITH CALCULATED
DCAPES 700-950 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT LIKELY ATTM...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...IF HIGHS CAN WARM TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THAT AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY EARLY
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MEANDERS EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY ENTER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...SUGGESTING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD POP UP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID
60S.
SATURDAY...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT IN ITS
LOCATION COULD LEAD TO LARGE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY...PEAKING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RIGHT NOW THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
SAVANNAH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BE MUCH
HIGHER IF THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND WE GET MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A DELUGE OF SHORTWAVES LIFT OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THE VORT ENERGY COMBINED WITH INCREASING JET
DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING PWATS WILL YIELD GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. BUMPED UP THE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TO REFLECT THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SUNSHINE.
MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL PUSH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO JUST
OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA IN THE
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS US.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH STILL WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE LOW-END
MVFR CIGS GETTING INTO KSAV JUST AFTER SUNRISE. WILL CARRY A TEMPO
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SHOWERS/TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
POSSIBLE IMPACTS AT BOTH TERMINALS...ROUGHLY 19-22Z AT KSAV AND
21-00Z AT KCHS. WILL CARRY TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR VSBYS IN TSRA TO
COVER THIS POSSIBILITY THIS FAR OUT. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NEEDED AS RADAR/MESOSCALE TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO A FRONT STALLING OVER OR
NEAR THE AREA. VFR IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA. LOW-LEVEL
JETTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT WINDS 15-20 KT...EXCEPT
NEAR 15 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEGS.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT MEANDERS INTO THE
FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SPEEDS LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A FRONT STALLS OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WINDS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY GUSTY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ENHANCED WINDS APPEAR TO
BE DUE TO THE PASSAGE A GRAVITY WAVE THAT WAS GENERATED BY A LINE
OF STRONG CONVECTION THAT MOVED OFF THE GEORGIA COAST JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 35-45 MPH AT THE CHARLESTON
AIRPORT SINCE 145 AM AND WITH ATMOSPHERE NOW WELL MIXED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE GRAVITY WAVE...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING...THEN STALL OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA AS ITS SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SEVERAL UPSTREAM IMPULSES THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND INTERACT WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE THAT
DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING QLCS TO THE SOUTH LATE
THURSDAY EVENING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE COAST MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS NEAR 60 PERCENT SEEMS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
COVERAGE AND TIMING INCREASES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LATEST TIMING NOTED IN THE
VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SETS...WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER
70S FOR ALL BUT FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE MID 70S LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION IS SLOWER TO FORM OR IF TEMPERATURES
WARM QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE...THEN HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S COULD OCCUR.
MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS YIELD MODEST INSTABILITY TODAY WITH SBCAPE
1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KT COUPLED WITH CALCULATED
DCAPES 700-950 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT LIKELY ATTM...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...IF HIGHS CAN WARM TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THAT AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY EARLY
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MEANDERS EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY ENTER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...SUGGESTING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD POP UP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID
60S.
SATURDAY...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT IN ITS
LOCATION COULD LEAD TO LARGE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY...PEAKING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RIGHT NOW THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
SAVANNAH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BE MUCH
HIGHER IF THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND WE GET MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A DELUGE OF SHORTWAVES LIFT OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THE VORT ENERGY COMBINED WITH INCREASING JET
DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING PWATS WILL YIELD GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. BUMPED UP THE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TO REFLECT THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SUNSHINE.
MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL PUSH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO JUST
OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA IN THE
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS US.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV 09-12Z. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING LOWER ATTM
PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL
IMPACTS AT KCHS/KSAV REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WILL NOT
INCLUDE A MENTION AT EITHER TERMINAL WITH THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...BUT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED WITH THE 12Z CYCLE AFTER
ADDITIONAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS RUNS ARE EVALUATED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO A FRONT STALLING OVER OR
NEAR THE AREA. VFR IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA. LOW-LEVEL
JETTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT WINDS 15-20 KT...EXCEPT
NEAR 15 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEGS.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT MEANDERS INTO THE
FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SPEEDS LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A FRONT STALLS OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/MS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
911 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
A cold front currently moving east across Iowa will progress
across Illinois tomorrow. A narrow corridor of isentropic lift
across NW Illinois will continue to keep mid-clouds across our NW
counties the rest of the night. Based on the amount of dry air
below 700 mb in the 00z ILX sounding, it appears little to no
measurable rain will occur in our counties before sunrise. The
latest updates from the HRRR and RAP delay rainfall even longer
than that. The HRRR shows rain first affecting our areas NW of
the IL river around 15z, while the RAP delays any rain in our
counties until after 18z. That seems a little extreme based on the
forecast soundings and projected lift that will increase Easter
Sunday morning. Have reduced PoPs the rest of the night, and
slowed down the development and advance of rain across IL
tomorrow. The evening update from SPC keeps our eastern counties
in a Marginal outlook for severe storms tomorrow, as the cold
front picks up speed tomorrow afternoon. Will keep isolated
thunder in the afternoon forecast southeast of Taylorville to
Paris.
Main changes this evening were to PoP and weather grids, with
minor updates to temp, dewpoint, and sky. Overnight lows look on
track for low to mid 40s. The updated info is already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
Another quiet and mild night in store for Central Illinois.
Southeasterly winds ahead of the approaching precipitation for
tomorrow morning as well. Clouds will slowly increase after
midnight. Frontal boundary moving closer as well as increasing
cloud cover...cannot rule out some sct showers NW of the Illinois
River Valley, but chances are very low. Overnight lows should be in
the low to mid 40s before the onset of tomorrows rain.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
The weather system coming into the area tomorrow remains the focus
of this forecast. Models have come into better agreement as GFS is
now slower, like the NAM and ECMWF. With better agreement,
confidence has been raised, so pops have been increased for tomorrow
with high pops in the west during the late morning, followed by high
pops elsewhere during the early afternoon. Most models keep this
system as an open wave so pcpn should move east and out of the area
quicker than what the NAM is showing. So, by Sunday evening, there
will be only a chance of pcpn in the eastern parts of the CWA. By
midnight, the whole area should be dry. With the track of this wave
being across southern Illinois, believe should be sufficient
dynamics and instability for some isolated thunderstorms to be
possible tomorrow afternoon, then push east Sunday evening. So will
be keeping the isold t-storms over part of the CWA in the forecast
for the afternoon. Once this system moves through, dry weather is
expected for the beginning of next week.
Another weather system is still forecast by the models to move
through the area during the middle of the week. With models showing
a tad bit more consistency, have agreed with the likely pops for Wed
night. This system should also have sufficient dynamics for some
thunderstorms to be possible, so will have isolated thunderstorms
for Wed and Wed night. Models indicating pcpn slowly exiting the
area with this system, so chance pops will remain through Thur
night. Then dry weather remainder of the week.
Temps should get quite warm tomorrow, but then cool some for Monday,
after the system moves through. Warmer temps expected again next
week ahead of the mid week system with some cooling after that one
as well for the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
Mid level isentropic lift is generating radar returns across the
NW half of IL early this evening. No precipitation is reaching the
ground due to a dry sub-cloud layer. The primary forcing for
precip will remain west of our forecast area until after sunrise
tomorrow morning. A few sprinkles could develop near PIA before
12z. However, steadier rains look to start around 14z at PIA, with
prevailing rain advancing east to near CMI by 20z. Rain chances
diminish from west to east later Sunday afternoon and evening.
MVFR cloud cover should develop by 12z at PIA and advance to CMI
by 16z, with MVFR prevailing for the remainder of the forecast
period.
Winds will start out southeast this evening, then become south by
12z. A cold FROPA will create a wind shift to the west then
northwest during the day on Sunday. Wind speeds will increase to
10-13kt during the afternoon from the W-NW.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
218 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
THE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SCARCE FOR A WHILE...SO
HAVE DROPPED THUNDER. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GRADUAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT IS ONGOING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1046 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE ONGOING ISL/SCT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA...AS WELL AS IN THE INCOMING LINE OF CONVECTION. AS
EXPECTED...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
HAS LED TO DIMINISHING TREND OF THE LINE. AT THIS POINT...THE IS
BECOMING MORE BROKEN IN NATURE WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND IS CONTINUING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. LOWERED
MENTION OF THUNDER TO ONLY ISOLATED AS THE LINE MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA...WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED AFTER 4Z. HOWEVER...IF THIS
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES...OVERALL POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS
WELL. THERE ARE STILL SOME GUSTS ALONG THIS LINE AS SOME OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE TAPPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SO 20 TO
30 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH AT LEAST 4Z AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK FOR ALL OTHER PARAMETERS
THIS EVENING. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS WELL
ON TRACK WITH THESE CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN
PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. WILL LIKELY UPDATE THE ZFP TO
REFLECT THE CHANGE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH HWO STILL
SEEMS TO BE VALID.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
HAVE BEEN UPDATING POPS AND WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TO
CAPTURE THE MOVEMENT OF THE LINE OF STORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND THE ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE STATE.
EXPECT THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES TOWARDS OUR
AREA WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRIKES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WHILE
GUSTS ALONG THE LINE OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...THERE
REALLY HASN/T BEEN MUCH OTHER IMPACTS REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL KY
THUS FAR. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO WARRANT LETTING OUR LAKE WIND
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8PM. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE CHANGES IN POPS
AND WEATHER WARRANTED A PACKAGE UPDATE. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN
PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
AT MID AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT
THE NORTHERN END OF INDIANA TO EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ON
SOUTHWESTWARD. SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT. THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD OUT OF KY EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WERE STILL KICKING UP AT TIMES AT MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. WITH A NPW FOR
WIND ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW...WITH STILL
SOME SMALL POTENTIAL TO REACH ADVISORY OR LAKE WIND ADVISORY LATE
TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ASIDE FROM CONVECTION...THE
GREATEST WIND THREAT HAS FADED. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY SHOWERS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BRING STRONG
WINDS...AND WE CONTINUE IN A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FROM
SPC.
SHOWERS WILL END WITH FROPA...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP ON FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL PRESENT A FROST THREAT IN OUR COLDER VALLEYS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE PATCHY FROST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND TWO PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE INITIAL BOUT OF RAIN IS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...PRECIPITATION
ONSET WILL BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WITH THE FIRST
SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND 12Z ON SUNDAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO PERHAPS SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL
STEADILY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY
AND THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO OUR EAST...TAKING ITS
LIFT WITH IT.
WE SHOULD THEN SEE AN EXTENDED BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TEMPORARILY SETS UP SHOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS DURING THAT TIME. THE MODELS TRY TO BRING ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. IN GENERAL THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WAS USED TO ADJUST THE
MODEL BLEND FORECAST AS WE ARE NOW IN THE WARM SEASON WITH LESS
COLD AIR TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD. THE FORECAST IS CALLING FOR
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO ENTER EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...AS RIDGES OF HIGH
PRESSURE RULE THE WEATHER ON THOSE DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL COOL OFF
QUITE A BIT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS COOLER AIR SPILLS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM. WE COULD EASILY SEE HIGHS
REACH THE UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THE LOW TO MID
70S ON SUNDAY. THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE WEEK LOOK TO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHEN THE MERCURY MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP DOWN TO
MVFR THROUGH DAWN AS WINDS VEER MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MVFR
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
BREAKING UP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS WILL VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 09Z...WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING THEREAFTER.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1247 AM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2016
Updated the aviation discussion for th 06z TAF issuance.
UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Updated the aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016
The band of showers from Owensboro to Madisonville will slowly
push east northeast out of the region by late this afternoon.
We cannot rule out a few lightning strikes, but any significant
intensification should not occur until it passes out of our area.
Recent shower development along the actual cold front near the
Wabash River should struggle to survive as it moves into a worked
over airmass.
The entire area should be dry by 00Z this evening, but low clouds
will overspread the area behind the front, and linger for much of
the night. West northwest winds will slowly weaken through the
night, but they are not expected to go calm by morning. The
combination of clouds and winds should keep temperatures from
dropping down to the freezing mark and frost from forming in the
morning.
Considerable uncertainty exists in how long clouds may linger
Friday, but tried to lean toward the warm side of guidance for
highs. The surface high will still be in control of the region
Friday night, but winds will not be calm. Temperatures should drop
into the 30s over most of the area, but a freeze or frost is
not likely at this time. Plenty of sunshine and a return to south
winds should allow for a nice warm up on Saturday. More
confidently leaned toward the warm side of the guidance envelope
for highs.
An inverted surface trough will develop southwest to northeast
through the region Saturday night, as our Easter storm system
approaches. We should stay dry through sunrise Sunday morning, but
clouds will be on the increase from the west. Guidance is locked
in to the middle 40s for lows so did not deviate much at all.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016
In the extended forecast period, the ECMWF guidance is still
preferred from previous forecast shifts given it consistency in
space and time across the WFO PAH forecast area. In addition to the
blended guidance, added a little weighting toward the ECMWF solution
with the first system on Sunday...with confidence greater than 50
percent. Have lower confidence on the early onset of precipitation
with the next system next Wednesday.
The pattern has set up with a progressive mean trough over the
conterminous U.S. through the period, with intervening shortwave
ridges. This would place precipitation event over the area about
every 2-3 days.
With the continual changes from warm to cold advection regimes and
mixing, diurnal ranges will be minimized somewhat, reducing the
concern for late night/early morning freeze potential or record
afternoon highs. Although evapotranspiration is increasing this time
of year, have doubt that there will be large scale drying between
systems.
A compact short wave moves through Sunday and Sunday evening, with
some intensification at the low-middle levels of the atmosphere. At
this point, the best potential for thunderstorms seems to be across
the Delta region of Southeast Missouri and West Kentucky, along and
just east of the forecast surface low moving over the area. Given
the likelihood for outdoor activities Sunday, will continue to
highlight in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
The system next Wednesday/Thursday is somewhat less distinct, with
periodic shortwaves generating precipitation in a broad southwest
flow regime.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2016
A large area of remnant MVFR cigs trails behind the departing
system and will pass through the Quad State area this morning.
Expect MVFR cigs to prevail until around sunrise near KCGI/KPAH
and until mid day near KEVV/KOWB. Cigs will fall below 2kft at
times, particularly prevailing closer to the system near
KEVV/KOWB. Cigs will scatter/clear quickly as high pressure moves
in for the day. North winds will develop an easterly component by
mid morning and slowly decrease to AOB 7 kts by afternoon.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION UPDATE...BP2
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1247 AM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2016
Updated the aviation discussion for th 06z TAF issuance.
UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Updated the aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016
The band of showers from Owensboro to Madisonville will slowly
push east northeast out of the region by late this afternoon.
We cannot rule out a few lightning strikes, but any significant
intensification should not occur until it passes out of our area.
Recent shower development along the actual cold front near the
Wabash River should struggle to survive as it moves into a worked
over airmass.
The entire area should be dry by 00Z this evening, but low clouds
will overspread the area behind the front, and linger for much of
the night. West northwest winds will slowly weaken through the
night, but they are not expected to go calm by morning. The
combination of clouds and winds should keep temperatures from
dropping down to the freezing mark and frost from forming in the
morning.
Considerable uncertainty exists in how long clouds may linger
Friday, but tried to lean toward the warm side of guidance for
highs. The surface high will still be in control of the region
Friday night, but winds will not be calm. Temperatures should drop
into the 30s over most of the area, but a freeze or frost is
not likely at this time. Plenty of sunshine and a return to south
winds should allow for a nice warm up on Saturday. More
confidently leaned toward the warm side of the guidance envelope
for highs.
An inverted surface trough will develop southwest to northeast
through the region Saturday night, as our Easter storm system
approaches. We should stay dry through sunrise Sunday morning, but
clouds will be on the increase from the west. Guidance is locked
in to the middle 40s for lows so did not deviate much at all.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016
In the extended forecast period, the ECMWF guidance is still
preferred from previous forecast shifts given it consistency in
space and time across the WFO PAH forecast area. In addition to the
blended guidance, added a little weighting toward the ECMWF solution
with the first system on Sunday...with confidence greater than 50
percent. Have lower confidence on the early onset of precipitation
with the next system next Wednesday.
The pattern has set up with a progressive mean trough over the
conterminous U.S. through the period, with intervening shortwave
ridges. This would place precipitation event over the area about
every 2-3 days.
With the continual changes from warm to cold advection regimes and
mixing, diurnal ranges will be minimized somewhat, reducing the
concern for late night/early morning freeze potential or record
afternoon highs. Although evapotranspiration is increasing this time
of year, have doubt that there will be large scale drying between
systems.
A compact short wave moves through Sunday and Sunday evening, with
some intensification at the low-middle levels of the atmosphere. At
this point, the best potential for thunderstorms seems to be across
the Delta region of Southeast Missouri and West Kentucky, along and
just east of the forecast surface low moving over the area. Given
the likelihood for outdoor activities Sunday, will continue to
highlight in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
The system next Wednesday/Thursday is somewhat less distinct, with
periodic shortwaves generating precipitation in a broad southwest
flow regime.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2016
A large area of remnant MVFR cigs trails behind the departing
system and will pass through the Quad State area this morning.
Expect MVFR cigs to prevail until around sunrise near KCGI/KPAH
and until mid day near KEVV/KOWB. Cigs will fall below 2kft at
times, particularly prevailing closer to the system near
KEVV/KOWB. Cigs will scatter/clear quickly as high pressure moves
in for the day. North winds will develop an easterly component by
mid morning and slowly decrease to AOB 7 kts by afternoon.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION UPDATE...BP2
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1255 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated 1140 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Updated the forecast to include patchy drizzle in low clouds for the
overnight hours. Radar imagery downstream indicates streaks of very
light precip which is likely drizzle. 0Z NAM soundings indicate
good low level moisture for drizzle through Fri morning.
Updated 911 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Convection continues along a cold front this evening, which now has
passed over I-65 and is heading into the Bluegrass region. Storms
have shown a gradual weakening trend over the past few hours and
expect that to continue with the loss of heating. Surface temps
only in the upper 50s to low 60s ahead of the convection is likely
not lending to much, if any, surface-based instability.
Nevertheless, some gusts of 30-35 mph and brief heavy downpours
remain on the table for the next couple hours in the Bluegrass,
before all convection pushes east. Did go ahead and up sky cover
tonight across the region as there is quite an expansive shield of
stratus upstream rotating into the Ohio Valley.
Updated 622 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Quick update early this evening to account for the latest storm
trends. Convection has blossomed along the cold front, now pushing
across northern portions of I-65. The storms have remained strong,
but sub-severe given instability continues to remain meager. In
fact, where convection has developed is the location that has yet to
see much in the way of rain so far today so some surface-based
instability has been able to develop. The storms over the next
couple of hours will be capable of producing some small hail and
winds to 45 mph. Can`t rule out a rogue severe cell, but think that
threat has likely already peaked along with the diurnal heating
cycle.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
The concerns this afternoon will continue to be the potential for
severe weather, as well as gradient wind gusts. Gradient winds have
been gusting mainly in the upper 30s to around 40. However, there
have been some gusts as high as 45 mph. The wind advisory continues
until 23Z, but will continue to monitor gusts as it may be able to
be let go before then.
The rain that has moved across central KY today has helped to
stabilize the area. However, SPC mesoanalysis does show an area of
slight instability across west central KY. In addition the 0-6 km
shear values are around 60 knots across the region. Mesoscale models
do suggest that the instability will spread eastward this afternoon
into western portions of the forecast area before weakening towards
the early evening hours. The HRRR continues to show strengthening of
the line of storms right along the cold front into the evening
hours. All things considered, there is still a slight chance for
some strong to severe storms this afternoon with hail and wind
gusts.
The storms should move out of the area by around 03Z or so with some
light showers continuing across the Bluegrass overnight. Rain should
move out completely by daybreak Friday, with dry conditions
expected Friday night.
Temperatures will fall in the wake of the cold front overnight into
the mid 30s to lower 40s. Despite the low temps, frost formation is
not expected as winds will remain elevated overnight. Highs tomorrow
will be much cooler, in the lower to mid 50s. Lows Friday night will
dip into the mid to upper 30s. With light winds and high pressure,
some frost will be possible early Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Saturday will remain dry with high pressure ridging in from the
northeast. Temperature will warm into the 60s under mostly sunny
skies. Lows Saturday night will be much warmer, in the 40s areawide.
A trough will dig into the Plains on Sunday and cross the lower Ohio
Valley Sunday night. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
with this system still looks to be late Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. Given the dry weather for much of the day ahead of this
system, temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The
severe potential does not look overly impressive with this system,
but a few strong storms will not be out of the question. The rain
should move out on Monday morning.
Tuesday through Wednesday look to be dry as high pressure builds
into the area. In the wake of the system Sunday night, temps on
Monday will be back in the 50s. We will then see a warm up through
mid week with temps back into the mid to upper 60s. The next chance
for rain will come Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1250 AM EDT Fri Mar 25 2016
Cold front has pushed on into eastern Kentucky, leaving the
terminals in a brief post-frontal window of VFR. However, a broad
stratus shield associated with the upper low lurks just to our west
and extends well back into Missouri. Cold pool aloft will keep the
stratus in play overnight and even well into Friday afternoon.
Will take ceilings down to high-end MVFR fairly quickly, with a
continued WNW wind surge keeping gusts just shy of 20 kt for a
couple more hrs. Expect SDF and LEX to go into fuel-alternate
shortly before daybreak, while closer to the edge of the cloud
shield, BWG stays just above 2000 feet. Low ceilings hold through
midday, with some improvement early in the afternoon before finally
clearing out late afternoon. Light NW winds by daybreak will slowly
clock around to NE by late afternoon/early evening as surface high
pressure continues to build.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD/AMS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1008 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
DENSE CIRRUS HAS SPREAD NNE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH SRN CO INTO NM.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SE
TX/EXTREME SRN LA...AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NNW INTO DEEP E
TX/CNTRL LA OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FG
DEVELOPMENT LATE EVEN BENEATH THE CIRRUS SHEILD OVER SE TX...WHICH
MAY AFFECT THE FAR SW SECTIONS OF DEEP E TX. THE 00Z NAM REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS 18Z PREDECESSOR WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE
ADVECTION SPREADING NE INTO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY/CNTRL
LA LATE...AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ALSO SUGGEST ISOLATED
CONVECTION AFFECTING THESE AREAS AS WELL JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THUS HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER W LATE TONIGHT
TO SABINE COUNTY TX AND ENCOMPASSING THE SRN/EXTREME ERN PARISHES OF
NCNTRL LA. THE DENSE CIRRUS IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A LID ON MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...WITH THE SRN ZONES LIKELY NOT BUDGING MUCH BELOW 60
DEGREES. HAVE BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SCT CONVECTION INCREASING AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
SRN/ERN ZONES. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION SHORT AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH THE H850 FLOW QUICKLY VEERING W AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ANY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MINIMIZED...WITH THE
ALREADY SHALLOW MOISTURE COLUMN DRYING OUT THAT MUCH FASTER DURING
THE DAY AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY ENTRAINS E BY AFTERNOON. HENCE...THE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND VERY FEW
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED. ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS
WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY 27/12Z. ALSO...A
CHANCE OF BR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS KTYR/KGGG BY 27/12Z. IN ADDITION
TO THE CLOUD COVER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL INCREASE
OVER NE LOUISIANA AT KMLU. RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY 27/21Z AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. /20/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 57 76 45 71 / 5 20 0 0
MLU 56 78 47 68 / 10 40 10 0
DEQ 49 64 37 69 / 10 30 0 0
TXK 55 69 42 68 / 5 20 0 0
ELD 53 74 43 68 / 5 30 0 0
TYR 57 67 43 71 / 5 20 0 0
GGG 56 70 43 70 / 5 20 0 0
LFK 59 76 47 73 / 10 30 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
955 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
955 PM UPDATE...
DRIER AIR IS STILL HANGING ON ACRS NRN ZONES AND WITH THICKENING
CIRRUS SHIELD ENCROACHING ON AREA, EXPECT THAT WE MAY HV A HARD
TIME SEEING PATCHY FG DVLP TONIGHT. HV RMVD FOG MENTION FOR ALL
BUT DOWNEAST WHERE LOW-LVL MOISTURE IS HIGHER THAN REST OF CWA.
LATEST SATELLITE LOOP IS NOW SHOWING STRATUS BEGINNING ITS MV TO
THE NORTH AND EXPECT THIS WL MV INTO COASTAL ZONES AROUND 08Z. NO
OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS AND FOG OR DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.
SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR THIS EVENING AND THEN MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POTENTIAL SOME LLVL MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION LATER TONIGHT W/SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING. BLYR WINDS GO
SE WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT IS MORE SSW WHICH IS A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS
TO TAKE PLACE. BUFKIT DATA ALSO SHOWING FOG OR DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
W/THE HRRR 3KM AND WRF SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS. AFTER FURTHER
COLLABORATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO CARRY PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT
AFTER SUNSET W/DRIER AIR IN PLACE AS READINGS WILL BE DOWN TO MID
TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CAP A FURTHER DROP IN THE TEMPS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL HANG ON FOR A WHILE DURING THE MORNING ON
EASTER SUNDAY AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST THE COAST AS SSE WINDS PICK
UP TO AROUND 10 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO CUT DOWN ON TEMPS RISING DUE
TO THE FLOW OFF THE COLDER GULF OF MAINE WATERS. AS A MATTER OF
FACT, NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE A TAD WARMER ESPECIALLY IF SOME SUN
APPEARS. ALL THIS DESPITE SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO HANG ON TO CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
ANOTHER INTERESTING THING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE TO SET UP
LATE IN THE DAY AS EVIDENT FROM THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT
PROFILES. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION AIDING IN THE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE
DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SITUATED. CARRIED PATCHY WORDING FOR
NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
FIRST CONCERN BEFORE THE STORM REALLY MOVES IN IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. LOOKS JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH MANY
AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE, BUT THE MOISTURE NOT
BEING DEEP ENOUGH TO TAP A LEVEL COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL
FORMATION.
THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARD A POTENT SYSTEM BEGINNING MONDAY.
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH THE STORM. MAIN ISSUE IS HOW
FAST THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER SHIFTS FROM BEING THE ONE WEST OF
QUEBEC CITY TO THE ONE IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FASTER THE
TRANSFER OF ENERGY OCCURS, THE QUICKER OUR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.
GFS HAS BEEN SLOWER ON THE TRANSFER, ALTHOUGH ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SEEM TO BE FASTER ON THE TRANSFER. ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND
NAM ARE A BIT FASTER ON THE TRANSFER, AND I TEND TO FAVOR A
FASTER TRANSFER OF ENERGY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A FASTER
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MONDAY EVENING.
BEST GUESS FORECAST AT THIS TIME IS FOR MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH EXTREME NORTHERN MAINE MAY MIX AT TIMES. THEN
A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY TO SNOW MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
MAINE MONDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDY AND COLDER TUESDAY. FIRST GUESS AT SNOW AMOUNTS IS FOR 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE NORTH, THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS THE FURTHER NORTH YOU
GO. THESE AMOUNTS ARE OF COURSE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...MUCH
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH COOLER...
THEREFORE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. SATURDAY
IS FORECAST TO BE CLOUDY...COOLER WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GIVING WAY TO LOW MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR CIGS
AND VSBYS, ESPECIALLY OVR NORTHERN TERMINALS AS FOG DVLPS. THE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD HANG ON THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING THEN
BECOME VFR BY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. WIDESPREAD IFR CONTINUING MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
ENTIRE AREA, GENERALLY FALLING AS RAIN MONDAY THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT WINDY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA CANCELLED W/WINDS AND SEAS DOWN TO 15 KTS AND 4 FT
RESPECTIVELY. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD RIGHT INTO EASTER
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: PERHAPS SOME MIN LEVEL SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS LATE
MONDAY. STRONGER OFFSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
753 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
750 PM UPDATE...
JUST SOME HI CIRRUS ADVANCING INTO CWA FM THE WEST BUT EXPECT THIS
WL HV VRY LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMP DROP OR POSSIBLE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. STRATUS DECK HAS MVD WELL OFFSHORE AND MODELS NOW
DELAYING ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE STATE BY SVRL HRS. HV ADJUSTED SKY
GRIDS TO GO MOCLR ACRS CWA THRU MIDNIGHT BFR STRATUS MVS ONSHORE
AS LOW-LVL FLOW BCMS MORE SERLY.
FOG IS STILL PROBLEMATIC FOR THE OVRNGT AS BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATE
COMPLETE SATURATION IN THE BNDRY LYR IN NRN ZONES WHERE GREATEST
DWPT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE AND NOT AS SATURATED IN DOWNEAST ZONES.
WL RETAIN PATCHY FOG WORDING OVR ENTIRE CWA BTWN 06Z AND 12Z WITH
THIS UPDATE WITH LOW CLDS MVG INTO COASTAL ZONES AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR NORTH AS BANGOR, THO RIGHT NOW POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT BEST. HV
MASSAGED HRLY T/TD VALUES TO COME IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS. NO
MAJOR CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS AND FOG OR DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.
SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR THIS EVENING AND THEN MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POTENTIAL SOME LLVL MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION LATER TONIGHT W/SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING. BLYR WINDS GO
SE WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT IS MORE SSW WHICH IS A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS
TO TAKE PLACE. BUFKIT DATA ALSO SHOWING FOG OR DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
W/THE HRRR 3KM AND WRF SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS. AFTER FURTHER
COLLABORATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO CARRY PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT
AFTER SUNSET W/DRIER AIR IN PLACE AS READINGS WILL BE DOWN TO MID
TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CAP A FURTHER DROP IN THE TEMPS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL HANG ON FOR A WHILE DURING THE MORNING ON
EASTER SUNDAY AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST THE COAST AS SSE WINDS PICK
UP TO AROUND 10 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO CUT DOWN ON TEMPS RISING DUE
TO THE FLOW OFF THE COLDER GULF OF MAINE WATERS. AS A MATTER OF
FACT, NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE A TAD WARMER ESPECIALLY IF SOME SUN
APPEARS. ALL THIS DESPITE SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO HANG ON TO CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
ANOTHER INTERESTING THING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE TO SET UP
LATE IN THE DAY AS EVIDENT FROM THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT
PROFILES. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION AIDING IN THE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE
DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SITUATED. CARRIED PATCHY WORDING FOR
NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
FIRST CONCERN BEFORE THE STORM REALLY MOVES IN IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. LOOKS JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH MANY
AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE, BUT THE MOISTURE NOT
BEING DEEP ENOUGH TO TAP A LEVEL COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL
FORMATION.
THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARD A POTENT SYSTEM BEGINNING MONDAY.
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH THE STORM. MAIN ISSUE IS HOW
FAST THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER SHIFTS FROM BEING THE ONE WEST OF
QUEBEC CITY TO THE ONE IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FASTER THE
TRANSFER OF ENERGY OCCURS, THE QUICKER OUR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.
GFS HAS BEEN SLOWER ON THE TRANSFER, ALTHOUGH ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SEEM TO BE FASTER ON THE TRANSFER. ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND
NAM ARE A BIT FASTER ON THE TRANSFER, AND I TEND TO FAVOR A
FASTER TRANSFER OF ENERGY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A FASTER
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MONDAY EVENING.
BEST GUESS FORECAST AT THIS TIME IS FOR MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH EXTREME NORTHERN MAINE MAY MIX AT TIMES. THEN
A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY TO SNOW MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
MAINE MONDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDY AND COLDER TUESDAY. FIRST GUESS AT SNOW AMOUNTS IS FOR 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE NORTH, THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS THE FURTHER NORTH YOU
GO. THESE AMOUNTS ARE OF COURSE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...MUCH
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH COOLER...
THEREFORE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. SATURDAY
IS FORECAST TO BE CLOUDY...COOLER WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GIVING WAY TO LOW MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR CIGS
AND VSBYS, ESPECIALLY OVR NORTHERN TERMINALS AS FOG DVLPS. THE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD HANG ON THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING THEN
BECOME VFR BY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. WIDESPREAD IFR CONTINUING MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
ENTIRE AREA, GENERALLY FALLING AS RAIN MONDAY THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT WINDY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA CANCELLED W/WINDS AND SEAS DOWN TO 15 KTS AND 4 FT
RESPECTIVELY. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD RIGHT INTO EASTER
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: PERHAPS SOME MIN LEVEL SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS LATE
MONDAY. STRONGER OFFSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
459 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
455 PM UPDATE...DECIDED TO LET THE WINTER STORM WARNING EXPIRE AS
STEADY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE COMING TO AN END. SOME POCKETS OF
SLEET ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER TRAVEL HAZARDS THROUGH THE EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STAYED WITH THE HRRR 3KM AND GEM MODEL BLEND FOR PRECIP AND TEMPS
FOR THIS PACKAGE. ADDITIONAL ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THE ICING THREAT WILL END BY EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRES PULLS
TOWARD NEW BRUNSWICK W/SOME SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS COLD AIR MOVES
IN AT MID LEVELS. LLVLS WILL COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. NNW WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW BRUNSWICK W/SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE NO MORE THAN 1/2 INCH. TEMPS WILL FALL
BACK W/SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS READINGS HIT THE MID AND
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME RE-FREEZING OF SURFACES OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC ON
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING, BUT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. THIS
BEING BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEEP LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER
MOVING ON-SHORE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE ON THE COAST AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF ICE PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE INCREASE TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING AS NEXT WEATHER MAKER
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. A SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO A LOW DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...WHICH COULD SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASE THE RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WIND SPEEDS. THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW BUT THE SREF/NAM/EC/CMC
ALL HAVE THE COASTAL LOW BECOMING THE PRIMARY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE QPF FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND WET SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN SUGGEST A WET SNOW EVENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IT WILL BE ABOVE 10 DEGREES COLDER ON TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SHOULD
BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. NOT SO SURE
ABOUT NORTHERN MAINE AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. VFR ALL TERMINALS FOR SATURDAY W/A
TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR THE FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS N OF KHUL.
SHORT TERM: LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER EXPECTED BY SUNDAY WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME IFR CEILINGS. CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS NNW WINDS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PICK UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. A SWELL
COMPONENT IS THERE WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING 5-6 FT. EXPECTING WIND
SPEEDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT W/GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS EVENING AND
THEN FALL OFF BY EARLY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS WILL FALL BACK DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW
SCA. WE ARE WATCHING FOR A POSSIBLE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ON MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME ON
THIS STORM.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUMONT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUMONT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
346 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS HAS TURNED TO A FREEZING RAIN
THREAT INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF PRECIP RIDES ACROSS
THE REGION W/LOW PRES MOVING E AND DECENT MID LEVEL PUNCH. WINTER
STORM WARNING REMAINS UP THROUGH 5 PM HITTING THE ICING THREAT
MORE. LET THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE HOULTON-MILLINOCKET-LINCOLN
REGION EXPIRE AS ICING THREAT LESSENED AND TEMPS RISING. STAYED
WITH THE HRRR 3KM AND GEM MODEL BLEND FOR PRECIP AND TEMPS FOR
THIS PACKAGE. ADDITIONAL ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THE ICING THREAT WILL END BY EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRES PULLS
TOWARD NEW BRUNSWICK W/SOME SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS COLD AIR MOVES
IN AT MID LEVELS. LLVLS WILL COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. NNW WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW BRUNSWICK W/SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE NO MORE THAN 1/2 INCH. TEMPS WILL FALL
BACK W/SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS READINGS HIT THE MID AND
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME RE-FREEZING OF SURFACES OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC ON
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING, BUT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. THIS
BEING BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEEP LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER
MOVING ON-SHORE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE ON THE COAST AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF ICE PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE INCREASE TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING AS NEXT WEATHER MAKER
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. A SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO A LOW DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...WHICH COULD SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASE THE RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WIND SPEEDS. THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW BUT THE SREF/NAM/EC/CMC
ALL HAVE THE COASTAL LOW BECOMING THE PRIMARY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE QPF FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND WET SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN SUGGEST A WET SNOW EVENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IT WILL BE ABOVE 10 DEGREES COLDER ON TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SHOULD
BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. NOT SO SURE
ABOUT NORTHERN MAINE AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. VFR ALL TERMINALS FOR SATURDAY W/A
TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR THE FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS N OF KHUL.
SHORT TERM: LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER EXPECTED BY SUNDAY WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME IFR CEILINGS. CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS NNW WINDS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PICK UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. A SWELL
COMPONENT IS THERE WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING 5-6 FT. EXPECTING WIND
SPEEDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT W/GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS EVENING AND
THEN FALL OFF BY EARLY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS WILL FALL BACK DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW
SCA. WE ARE WATCHING FOR A POSSIBLE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ON MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME ON
THIS STORM.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUMONT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUMONT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
827 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA AND OFF THE COAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ATLANTIC CANADA/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST, WHICH NUDGES BACK INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WITH A MOIST FRONTAL BAND BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS FROM THE EAST CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
NOTING SOME AREAS OF LGT TO MODERATE RAIN BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL NC, AND AS THE 300K THETA SURFACE BUCKLES
NNE INTO THE LOCAL AREA, EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE AREA AS BETTER SLUG OF LIFT PUSHES NORTH. HAVE PUSHED
BACK ONSET OF POPS SLIGHTLY PER RADAR TRENDS. HRRR NOW SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING, DEPICTING AREAS OF RAIN MOVING INTO
SERN PORTIONS LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFTING TOWARD THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER INLAND, HI-RES MODELS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER THIN LOW LEVEL LAYER BECOMING SATURATED IN
PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW...WHICH SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE OVER INLAND
SECTIONS. MAINLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S FAR N...TO
MID/UPPER 40S FOR CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR EASTER SUNDAY...MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A CLOUDY AND COOL DAY
ALTHOUGH FORCING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...AND THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT THAT THE LOW
LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED SUN MORNING, WITH CONTINUED AREAS OF
DRIZZLE EXPECTED IN PERSISTENT ENE FLOW, THOUGH ANY LIGHT RAIN
MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH MIDDAY. AS THE
FRONT LIFTS N IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...FORCING WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTN THOUGH
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING.
FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN THE MID-UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME LOWER 60S ACRS INTERIOR NE NC AND S-CENTRAL VA.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
THUNDER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE
PORTIONS GIVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONTINUED TO SPEED-UP THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT PER 12Z/26 GFS/ECMWF WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS/SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING (MAINLY E)...WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY BY AFTN. THE BEST CAA SHOULD WAIT
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY INITIAL CAA MONDAY AFTN OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING. HAVE NUDGED HIGHS UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST OF THE ERN SHORE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S...AND RISE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS DRY AS UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA TUES NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS AS THE RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WEDS (COMPARED TO TUES)...GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MILD WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S THANKS TO SLY FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUDS. FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY THU. ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE STILL REMAINS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN CONUS. THE TREND
AS OF LATE IS TO LEAN TOWARD THE QUICKER GFS...BUT THE ECMWF
TYPICALLY HANDLES BLOCKY FLOW BETTER. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH
PERSISTENT AND MAINTAIN A TREND TOWARD THE GFS/GEFS. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO SE CANADA. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE EXPECTED THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON LIMITED DYNAMICS AND A LACK OF A GOOD TAP OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT HIGH END CHANCE
POPS. HIGHS THURS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH A BREEZY SLY WIND. MILD
AGAIN THURS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FRI (BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST) AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS FRI BACK IN THE LOW/MID 70S. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
SAT AND SAT NIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLC REGION WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST NE/E FLOW.
VFR CURRENTLY AT KRIC/KPHF/KSBY...WITH MVFR AT KORF...AND IFR
CEILINGS AT KECG. EXPECT CONDS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR THROUGH
06Z...AS CEILINGS CONT TO LOWER. SOME RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED MAINLY
KPHF/KORF/KECG OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH
AREA. OTHERWISE...MAINLY IFR CONDS PREVAILING THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN PERSISTS...AND
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURES ALOFT MOVE THROUGH AREA. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION EARLY MON...WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING SHOULD ALLOW AVIATION
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 18Z MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY
SW/W WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. LAST EVENINGS COLD
FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. NE FLOW OVER THE
WATER AVERAGES 10 TO 15 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT 5
FT SEAS OBSERVED 20 TO 40 NM OUT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST. SPEEDS AVERAGE 10
TO 15 KT TONIGHT...WITH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY PUSH SEAS TO A SOLID 4 FT. WHILE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS WILL
STAY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 5 FT SEAS
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE NE
FLOW. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES ATTM BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY AND
INTER OFFICE COLLABORATION. THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUN
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES SLY
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION
MON AFTERNOON. FLOW BECOMES NWLY MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15
TO 25 KT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TUES MORNING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WEDS WITH SLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE WATER. SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THURS AS THE GRADIENT RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
217 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING
INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SN
YDAY OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA. THE INCOMING AIRMASS ABOVE ASSOCIATED
SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM JAMES BAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
RATHER DRY PER THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS...WHERE THE PWATS WERE GENERALLY
ABOUT 0.20 INCH /ABOUT 65 PCT OF NORMAL/. ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS LINGER
OVER THE FAR ERN CWA...THE COMBINATION OF THE LLVL ACYC FLOW/LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS RESULTING IN MOCLR SKIES W TO NW
MN...WHERE SOME MID AND HI CLDS ARE PRESENT IN THE WAA PATTERN AHEAD
OF A PAIR OF SHRTWVS...ONE MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS/ FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPR MI HAVE FALLEN AS
LO AS THE SINGLE NUMBERS EARLY THIS MRNG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY UNDER
PASSSING HI PRES RDG AND THEN POPS/PTYPE LATE TNGT AS THE WAA
PATTERN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM SHRTWVS FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING RDG INTO
THE WRN GREAT LKS.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM HI/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE CWA FM THE
W...THE VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS WL ENSURE
DRY WX. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI PRES
SHIFTING OVER LK HURON LATE IN THE DAY IS FCST TO ADVECT SOME WARMER
AIR INTO THE UPR LKS AND LIFT H85 TEMPS TO ARND 0C BY 00Z SAT.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 40S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE
OF THE GREAT LKS...MAINLY LK MI.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME DPVA AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SRN SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS /H825-625/ MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA
OVERNGT AS SFC LO PRES TROF/COLD FNT MOVES INTO WRN LK SUP BY 12Z
SAT. HOW QUICKLY THIS DYNAMIC SUPPORT CAN OVERCOME THE LLVL DRY AIR
TO PRODUCE PCPN IS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES SOMEWHAT
SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THUS BREAKS PCPN OUT A LITTLE
FASTER... BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH
IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS THAT WL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA...
WL TEND TOWARD THE SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM/
LOCAL WRF-ARW. PTYPE FCST IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...BUT FCST THERMAL
FIELDS SUG A MIX OF RA AND SN WL BE PSBL. CONCERN IS LINGERING NEAR
SFC DRY AIR COULD ALLOW FOR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LOWER WBLB
TEMPS AOB 32F. IF PCPN IS IN THE FORM OF RA...SOME FREEZING RA COULD
OCCUR. THE GOOD NEWS IS QPF THRU 12Z SAT WL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...SO ANY SN/ICE ACCUM WL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 549 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE NRN STREAM DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES...WILL
GIVE WAY TO RIDGING AS A SRN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS WEEKEND WILL CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALONG/AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES WILL ALLOW PCPN TO SLOWLY EXPAND FROM
WRN UPPER MI SAT MORNING INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AFTER INITIAL PUSH OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND
BETTER 285-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT EARLY SAT MORNING MODELS SUGGEST
WEAK FORCING DURING DAY ON SAT UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY LEAD TO
LULL IN PCPN. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES STILL INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF -SN/LIGHT FZRA EARLY SAT...MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF...BUT BY LATE SAT MORNING/EARLY SAT AFTERNOON ANY
LIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE IN FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST PLACES. ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE FROM NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ASSOC DEEP Q-LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND INCREASING 285-290K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING PCPN CHCS BY SAT
EVENING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WOULD FAVOR THE WEST HALF FOR GREATER
QPF AMOUNTS AND THUS LIKELY POPS FOR SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP WITH IDEA
OF HIGHER CHC POPS EAST HALF. PTYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PCPN POSSIBLY STAYING MORE RAIN OVER THE FCST
AREA THRU SAT NIGHT...BUT YET MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD INDICATE PCPN
CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW WEST HALF LATE SAT NIGHT WITH A
SNOW/RAIN MIX EAST HALF. WL SIDE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...BUT
COULD EASILY SEE WARMER NAM VERIFYING SAT NIGHT IF TEMPS REACH INTO
THE 40S DURING DAY ON SAT AND THEN THICKER CLOUDS ROLL IN TOWARD
EVENING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
SUN-TUE...AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN DEPARTS OVER THE EAST SUN
MORNING WITH EXITING LOW PRES AREA AND ASSOC TROUGH...EXPECT
CLEARING AND DRYING FROM WEST DURING DAY ON SUN WITH A SFC RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WEAK NRN STREAM SHRTWVS WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN.
INCREASING WAA AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR INTO UPPER MI. HOWEVER...SE FLOW AT SFC WILL TEMPER
WARMING...CONFINING WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS TO MAINLY WRN INTERIOR.
WED-THU...SW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL TROUGH LIFTING
EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR PCPN WED INTO
THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE INCRSG HI/MID CLDS INTO THIS EVNG...LLVL DRY
AIR WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST THE EARLY MRNG HRS ON
SAT. AS A LO PRES TROF APRCHS FM THE W...SOME RA/SN AND POSSIBLE
FZRA WL ARRIVE AT IWD/CMX AFTER 06Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT IWD/CMX...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
PSBL AT CMX TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WHEN THE PTYPE WL
CHANGE MAINLY TO SN AT THAT SITE. SINCE THE PCPN WL STAY W OF
SAW...EXPECT VFR WX TO PREVAIL AT THAT LOCATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE S AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS TONIGHT UNDER A BIT TIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THRU THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AHEAD OF A HI
PRES BUILDING INTO NW ONTARIO. AS THIS HI CENTER MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. A STRONGER S-SE
WIND UP TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP ON TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
HI CENTER TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING
INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SN
YDAY OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA. THE INCOMING AIRMASS ABOVE ASSOCIATED
SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM JAMES BAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
RATHER DRY PER THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS...WHERE THE PWATS WERE GENERALLY
ABOUT 0.20 INCH /ABOUT 65 PCT OF NORMAL/. ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS LINGER
OVER THE FAR ERN CWA...THE COMBINATION OF THE LLVL ACYC FLOW/LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS RESULTING IN MOCLR SKIES W TO NW
MN...WHERE SOME MID AND HI CLDS ARE PRESENT IN THE WAA PATTERN AHEAD
OF A PAIR OF SHRTWVS...ONE MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS/ FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPR MI HAVE FALLEN AS
LO AS THE SINGLE NUMBERS EARLY THIS MRNG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY UNDER
PASSSING HI PRES RDG AND THEN POPS/PTYPE LATE TNGT AS THE WAA
PATTERN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM SHRTWVS FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING RDG INTO
THE WRN GREAT LKS.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM HI/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE CWA FM THE
W...THE VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS WL ENSURE
DRY WX. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI PRES
SHIFTING OVER LK HURON LATE IN THE DAY IS FCST TO ADVECT SOME WARMER
AIR INTO THE UPR LKS AND LIFT H85 TEMPS TO ARND 0C BY 00Z SAT.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 40S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE
OF THE GREAT LKS...MAINLY LK MI.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME DPVA AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SRN SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS /H825-625/ MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA
OVERNGT AS SFC LO PRES TROF/COLD FNT MOVES INTO WRN LK SUP BY 12Z
SAT. HOW QUICKLY THIS DYNAMIC SUPPORT CAN OVERCOME THE LLVL DRY AIR
TO PRODUCE PCPN IS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES SOMEWHAT
SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THUS BREAKS PCPN OUT A LITTLE
FASTER... BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH
IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS THAT WL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA...
WL TEND TOWARD THE SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM/
LOCAL WRF-ARW. PTYPE FCST IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...BUT FCST THERMAL
FIELDS SUG A MIX OF RA AND SN WL BE PSBL. CONCERN IS LINGERING NEAR
SFC DRY AIR COULD ALLOW FOR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LOWER WBLB
TEMPS AOB 32F. IF PCPN IS IN THE FORM OF RA...SOME FREEZING RA COULD
OCCUR. THE GOOD NEWS IS QPF THRU 12Z SAT WL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...SO ANY SN/ICE ACCUM WL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 549 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE NRN STREAM DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES...WILL
GIVE WAY TO RIDGING AS A SRN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS WEEKEND WILL CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALONG/AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES WILL ALLOW PCPN TO SLOWLY EXPAND FROM
WRN UPPER MI SAT MORNING INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AFTER INITIAL PUSH OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND
BETTER 285-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT EARLY SAT MORNING MODELS SUGGEST
WEAK FORCING DURING DAY ON SAT UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY LEAD TO
LULL IN PCPN. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES STILL INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF -SN/LIGHT FZRA EARLY SAT...MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF...BUT BY LATE SAT MORNING/EARLY SAT AFTERNOON ANY
LIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE IN FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST PLACES. ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE FROM NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ASSOC DEEP Q-LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND INCREASING 285-290K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING PCPN CHCS BY SAT
EVENING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WOULD FAVOR THE WEST HALF FOR GREATER
QPF AMOUNTS AND THUS LIKELY POPS FOR SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP WITH IDEA
OF HIGHER CHC POPS EAST HALF. PTYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PCPN POSSIBLY STAYING MORE RAIN OVER THE FCST
AREA THRU SAT NIGHT...BUT YET MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD INDICATE PCPN
CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW WEST HALF LATE SAT NIGHT WITH A
SNOW/RAIN MIX EAST HALF. WL SIDE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...BUT
COULD EASILY SEE WARMER NAM VERIFYING SAT NIGHT IF TEMPS REACH INTO
THE 40S DURING DAY ON SAT AND THEN THICKER CLOUDS ROLL IN TOWARD
EVENING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
SUN-TUE...AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN DEPARTS OVER THE EAST SUN
MORNING WITH EXITING LOW PRES AREA AND ASSOC TROUGH...EXPECT
CLEARING AND DRYING FROM WEST DURING DAY ON SUN WITH A SFC RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WEAK NRN STREAM SHRTWVS WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN.
INCREASING WAA AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR INTO UPPER MI. HOWEVER...SE FLOW AT SFC WILL TEMPER
WARMING...CONFINING WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS TO MAINLY WRN INTERIOR.
WED-THU...SW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL TROUGH LIFTING
EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR PCPN WED INTO
THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE INCRSG HI/MID CLDS INTO THIS EVNG...LLVL DRY
AIR WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST THE EARLY MRNG HRS ON
SAT. AS A LO PRES TROF APRCHS FM THE W...SOME RA/SN WL ARRIVE AT
IWD/CMX AFTER 06Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR
RANGE AT IWD/CMX...WITH IFR CONDITIONS PSBL AT CMX TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WHEN THE PTYPE WL CHANGE MAINLY TO SN AT THAT SITE.
SINCE THE PCPN WL STAY W OF SAW THRU 12Z SAT...EXPECT VFR WX TO
PREVAIL AT THAT LOCATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE S AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS TONIGHT UNDER A BIT TIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THRU THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AHEAD OF A HI
PRES BUILDING INTO NW ONTARIO. AS THIS HI CENTER MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. A STRONGER S-SE
WIND UP TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP ON TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
HI CENTER TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
550 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING
INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SN
YDAY OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA. THE INCOMING AIRMASS ABOVE ASSOCIATED
SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM JAMES BAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
RATHER DRY PER THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS...WHERE THE PWATS WERE GENERALLY
ABOUT 0.20 INCH /ABOUT 65 PCT OF NORMAL/. ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS LINGER
OVER THE FAR ERN CWA...THE COMBINATION OF THE LLVL ACYC FLOW/LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS RESULTING IN MOCLR SKIES W TO NW
MN...WHERE SOME MID AND HI CLDS ARE PRESENT IN THE WAA PATTERN AHEAD
OF A PAIR OF SHRTWVS...ONE MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS/ FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPR MI HAVE FALLEN AS
LO AS THE SINGLE NUMBERS EARLY THIS MRNG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY UNDER
PASSSING HI PRES RDG AND THEN POPS/PTYPE LATE TNGT AS THE WAA
PATTERN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM SHRTWVS FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING RDG INTO
THE WRN GREAT LKS.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM HI/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE CWA FM THE
W...THE VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS WL ENSURE
DRY WX. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI PRES
SHIFTING OVER LK HURON LATE IN THE DAY IS FCST TO ADVECT SOME WARMER
AIR INTO THE UPR LKS AND LIFT H85 TEMPS TO ARND 0C BY 00Z SAT.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 40S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE
OF THE GREAT LKS...MAINLY LK MI.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME DPVA AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SRN SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS /H825-625/ MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA
OVERNGT AS SFC LO PRES TROF/COLD FNT MOVES INTO WRN LK SUP BY 12Z
SAT. HOW QUICKLY THIS DYNAMIC SUPPORT CAN OVERCOME THE LLVL DRY AIR
TO PRODUCE PCPN IS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES SOMEWHAT
SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THUS BREAKS PCPN OUT A LITTLE
FASTER... BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH
IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS THAT WL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA...
WL TEND TOWARD THE SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM/
LOCAL WRF-ARW. PTYPE FCST IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...BUT FCST THERMAL
FIELDS SUG A MIX OF RA AND SN WL BE PSBL. CONCERN IS LINGERING NEAR
SFC DRY AIR COULD ALLOW FOR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LOWER WBLB
TEMPS AOB 32F. IF PCPN IS IN THE FORM OF RA...SOME FREEZING RA COULD
OCCUR. THE GOOD NEWS IS QPF THRU 12Z SAT WL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...SO ANY SN/ICE ACCUM WL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 549 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE NRN STREAM DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES...WILL
GIVE WAY TO RIDGING AS A SRN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS WEEKEND WILL CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALONG/AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES WILL ALLOW PCPN TO SLOWLY EXPAND FROM
WRN UPPER MI SAT MORNING INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AFTER INITIAL PUSH OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND
BETTER 285-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT EARLY SAT MORNING MODELS SUGGEST
WEAK FORCING DURING DAY ON SAT UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY LEAD TO
LULL IN PCPN. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES STILL INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF -SN/LIGHT FZRA EARLY SAT...MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF...BUT BY LATE SAT MORNING/EARLY SAT AFTERNOON ANY
LIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE IN FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST PLACES. ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE FROM NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ASSOC DEEP Q-LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND INCREASING 285-290K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING PCPN CHCS BY SAT
EVENING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WOULD FAVOR THE WEST HALF FOR GREATER
QPF AMOUNTS AND THUS LIKELY POPS FOR SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP WITH IDEA
OF HIGHER CHC POPS EAST HALF. PTYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PCPN POSSIBLY STAYING MORE RAIN OVER THE FCST
AREA THRU SAT NIGHT...BUT YET MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD INDICATE PCPN
CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW WEST HALF LATE SAT NIGHT WITH A
SNOW/RAIN MIX EAST HALF. WL SIDE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...BUT
COULD EASILY SEE WARMER NAM VERIFYING SAT NIGHT IF TEMPS REACH INTO
THE 40S DURING DAY ON SAT AND THEN THICKER CLOUDS ROLL IN TOWARD
EVENING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
SUN-TUE...AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN DEPARTS OVER THE EAST SUN
MORNING WITH EXITING LOW PRES AREA AND ASSOC TROUGH...EXPECT
CLEARING AND DRYING FROM WEST DURING DAY ON SUN WITH A SFC RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WEAK NRN STREAM SHRTWVS WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN.
INCREASING WAA AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR INTO UPPER MI. HOWEVER...SE FLOW AT SFC WILL TEMPER
WARMING...CONFINING WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS TO MAINLY WRN INTERIOR.
WED-THU...SW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL TROUGH LIFTING
EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR PCPN WED INTO
THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE S AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS TONIGHT UNDER A BIT TIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THRU THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AHEAD OF A HI
PRES BUILDING INTO NW ONTARIO. AS THIS HI CENTER MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. A STRONGER S-SE
WIND UP TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP ON TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
HI CENTER TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
429 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING
INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SN
YDAY OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA. THE INCOMING AIRMASS ABOVE ASSOCIATED
SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM JAMES BAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
RATHER DRY PER THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS...WHERE THE PWATS WERE GENERALLY
ABOUT 0.20 INCH /ABOUT 65 PCT OF NORMAL/. ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS LINGER
OVER THE FAR ERN CWA...THE COMBINATION OF THE LLVL ACYC FLOW/LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS RESULTING IN MOCLR SKIES W TO NW
MN...WHERE SOME MID AND HI CLDS ARE PRESENT IN THE WAA PATTERN AHEAD
OF A PAIR OF SHRTWVS...ONE MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS/ FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPR MI HAVE FALLEN AS
LO AS THE SINGLE NUMBERS EARLY THIS MRNG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY UNDER
PASSSING HI PRES RDG AND THEN POPS/PTYPE LATE TNGT AS THE WAA
PATTERN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM SHRTWVS FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING RDG INTO
THE WRN GREAT LKS.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM HI/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE CWA FM THE
W...THE VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS WL ENSURE
DRY WX. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI PRES
SHIFTING OVER LK HURON LATE IN THE DAY IS FCST TO ADVECT SOME WARMER
AIR INTO THE UPR LKS AND LIFT H85 TEMPS TO ARND 0C BY 00Z SAT.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 40S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE
OF THE GREAT LKS...MAINLY LK MI.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME DPVA AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SRN SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS /H825-625/ MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA
OVERNGT AS SFC LO PRES TROF/COLD FNT MOVES INTO WRN LK SUP BY 12Z
SAT. HOW QUICKLY THIS DYNAMIC SUPPORT CAN OVERCOME THE LLVL DRY AIR
TO PRODUCE PCPN IS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES SOMEWHAT
SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THUS BREAKS PCPN OUT A LITTLE
FASTER... BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH
IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS THAT WL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA...
WL TEND TOWARD THE SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM/
LOCAL WRF-ARW. PTYPE FCST IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...BUT FCST THERMAL
FIELDS SUG A MIX OF RA AND SN WL BE PSBL. CONCERN IS LINGERING NEAR
SFC DRY AIR COULD ALLOW FOR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LOWER WBLB
TEMPS AOB 32F. IF PCPN IS IN THE FORM OF RA...SOME FREEZING RA COULD
OCCUR. THE GOOD NEWS IS QPF THRU 12Z SAT WL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...SO ANY SN/ICE ACCUM WL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE NRN STREAM DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES...WILL
GIVE WAY TO RIDGING AS A SRN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES AND SFC TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD THE WRN LAKES FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING
PCPN CHANCES INTO THE WEST LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY
SAT AFTEROON. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND 285K-
290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SO...MUCH OF THE PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER DIURNAL WARMING PUSHES SFC TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING WITH RAIN AS THE MAIN PCPN TYPE...GIVEN THE FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICTION OF A MODEST ELEVATED WARM LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FZRA REMAINS FOR EARLY SATURDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF. EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INFLOW TO
SUPPORT QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE. AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A LAGGING SHRTWV LIFTS ENE FROM IA/WI
THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE.
SUN-TUE...AFTER ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST DEPARTS...EXPECT
CLEARING AND DRYING WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WEAK
NRN STREAM SHRTWVS MAY BRUSH THE NRN LAKES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ANY PCPN. INCRASING WAA AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS ON TUE WILL
WARMER AIR TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO UPPER MI.
WED-THU...SW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OOF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WRN
LAKES WITH PCPN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE WED INTO THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE S AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS TONIGHT UNDER A BIT TIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THRU THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AHEAD OF A HI
PRES BUILDING INTO NW ONTARIO. AS THIS HI CENTER MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. A STRONGER S-SE
WIND UP TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP ON TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
HI CENTER TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1150 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND THEN TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
WE HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES A LITTLE WITH THE 8 PM EXPIRATION TIME
COMING UP HERE SOON AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW COMING IN THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE DROPPED THE SE CORNER OF THE WARNING WITH LITTLE
ONGOING IMPACTS THERE AND LITTLE SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
IN THE WARNING...WE HAVE EXTENDED IT UNTIL 1 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR 1-2
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TOP OF THE ACCUMULATED ICE UP THERE.
DEFORMATION SNOW ACROSS WISCONSIN IS NOW MOVING OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS
SNOW WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...BUT IT WILL CREATE SOME ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WITH ADDITIONAL
WEIGHT ON TOP OF STRESSED TREE LIMBS...AND CREATE MORE SLICK ROADS
WITH TEMPS FALLING. THIS SHOULD ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NE BY
1 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
WE WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUE AS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
FREEZING. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ICING...BUT WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND ICE COVERED TREES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH INTO
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A LINE OF LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THERE.
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH THE HRRR CONSISTENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IN
BRINGING A BAND OF DEFORMATION AXIS SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES. THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ON
THE ROADS AFTER DARK AS TEMPERATURES DROP BLO FREEZING.
ONCE THAT GOES BY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS ENDING BY 12Z FRIDAY. FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM LOW IS APPROACHING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT RAIN OR MIX ACROSS THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
WE ARE MONITORING TWO SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST.
ONE IS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON SUN-MON. THE OTHER IS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR LATE WED-THU.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST DAY IS FOR DIMINISHING PCPN CHCS FOR THE
SYSTEM FOR SUN-MON. THIS TREND IS THE RESULT OF MORE SEPARATION OF
THE SYSTEMS FROM SAT THROUGH SUN. WE WILL SEE THE FRONT FROM THE SAT
SYSTEM BE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE TRIES TO MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT ON SUN-MON. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP PCPN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WE HAVE KEPT RAIN CHCS IN THE FCST INTO MON...BUT HAVE LOWERED
THEM A BIT. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT AS THERE IS
POTENTIAL OF ENOUGH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
THE PERIOD FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH
MODERATING TEMPS. WE WILL SEE A NICE AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN LOWS TO OUR EAST AND WEST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BEGINNING ON WED AND BECOME MORE LIKELY
BY THU. THE STRONG UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. WILL START TO EJECT SHORT WAVES TO THE NE TOWARD THE STATE. THE
INITIAL WAVE EJECTING INTO THE AREA ON WED WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY THU AS BETTER MOISTURE
WILL HAVE MOVED FURTHER NORTH AHEAD OF SUBSEQUENT WAVES. WE SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY MILD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AND APPROACHING 60 BEING
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND
CEILINGS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. CEILINGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM AROUND 1500FT OVERNIGHT TO 2500FT FRIDAY
MORNING AFTER 12Z. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...CEILINGS SHOULD BE
SCATTERING OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHTER WINDS MOVES IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF
LOWER MICHIGAN. 24 HOUR TOTALS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED BY 8
AM FRIDAY. RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE IN THE KALAMAZOO...
GRAND... AND MUSKEGON RIVER BASINS. NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE COMMON
OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN LOWLAND AREAS ADJACENT TO RIVER BANKS. MORE
IMPACTFUL MINOR FLOODING ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>045.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
947 AM MDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.UPDATE...
COLD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. COLD
AIR ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW...COLDER SURFACE AIR AND WEAK ENERGY
WITHIN THE TROUGH...PRODUCING AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING. REPORTS OF 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE
COME IN...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE BULL MOUNTAINS.
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR COVERAGE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. THE HRRR SINKS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH AND HANGS IT
UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS RED LODGE
COULD GET MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY...BUT THE THOUGHT OF
WORKING AGAINST A MARCH SUN ANGLE...SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION.
WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...IF THE SNOW SHOULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING...MAY BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH ACCUMULATIONS THERE. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A BACKDOOR
FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA BY NOON. A FEW
AREAS OF WEAK VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG WITH
EITHER THE FRONT NOR THE VORTICITY AREAS. UPSTREAM RADARS DO SHOW
AREAS OF PRECIP SINKING SOUTH. MODELS PAINT QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE I HAVE PLACED
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW THIS MORNING WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW.
ALTHOUGH QG FORCING IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG...LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP
TODAY SO SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR BURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH ON GRASSY
SURFACES...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS AND
POSSIBLY THE HIGHER HILLS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE AN
INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ANY CASE...THIS SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN IMPACT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY THE LESS TRAVELED
ROADSACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE QUITE COOL
WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE BY THIS
EVENING WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MOSTLY
ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTA BORDERS AND AREA MOUNTAINS. A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES. NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ABOUT 50
DEGREES. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER SPRING
STORM SYSTEM PROGGED TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FROM MONDAY THROUGH
PART OF WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING...AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS BECOME UNSETTLED STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...AS A TROF OVER WESTERN CONUS FORMS CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEPENING AND DIGGING SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
IMPROVING SNOW POTENTIAL INTO WESTERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...AS DIFFLUENT FLOW SHIFTS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. PRECIP CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP PROGGED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THINK THAT MOST
INTENSE PRECIP MAY FALL TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL ZONES AS BEST FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. TIMING
VARIES A BIT ON THE SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION...WITH ECMWF EXITING
MORE QUICKLY AND LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION DRY DURING THE DAY
WED. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR WED, HAVE LOWER CHANCE POPS
THEN.
CURRENTLY THE EXPECTED TEMPS LOOK BORDERLINE FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...MEANING THAT ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE LIMITED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS DUE TO STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE. HOWEVER...IF SNOWFALL RATES ARE HIGH...ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND COULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY.
AND FOR THU...A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS
A QUICK-MOVER WITH LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS COMPARED TO WHAT MAY FALL
FROM THE TUE-TUE NIGHT SYSTEM. RMS/HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTH. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED TODAY. GILSTAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042 023/050 031/059 035/048 033/044 026/039 023/042
7/W 20/U 00/U 24/R 46/O 64/O 23/W
LVM 040 018/049 029/054 030/042 023/040 022/035 017/041
8/W 40/U 01/N 46/R 56/O 66/S 23/W
HDN 043 020/052 022/061 030/052 034/048 028/041 022/042
7/W 20/U 00/U 12/R 46/O 64/O 23/W
MLS 040 022/051 028/062 031/058 037/051 029/043 024/042
7/J 10/U 00/U 02/R 25/R 53/O 22/W
4BQ 042 019/047 023/061 028/059 035/051 029/041 022/041
7/W 30/U 00/U 01/B 25/R 65/O 23/W
BHK 036 015/044 025/057 028/055 033/047 029/039 022/039
8/J 11/U 00/U 01/N 24/R 54/O 22/W
SHR 041 018/046 021/056 027/053 031/044 026/037 017/038
6/W 41/U 00/U 12/R 46/O 66/O 33/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
614 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAD A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS OF NEBRASKA. A SECONDARY LOW WAS NOTED OVER
CENTRAL UTAH. WEST OF THE TROUGH...RIDGING EXTENDED UP THE WEST
COAST OF THE CONUS INTO NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. EAST OF THE
TROUGH....SWRLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDED EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR WESTERN IOWA...INTO
FAR SERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WERE PRESENT WEST OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER A THICK VEIL OF CLOUD COVER. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE DRY AS SNOW AND RAIN WAS JUST OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...FROM NORFOLK SE TO OMAHA AND FALLS CITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNDAY IS TEMPERATURE. A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS RESULTED IN A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK AND
BRISK NORTH WINDS...LEADING TO COLDER HIGHS THAN EXPECTED TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WERE ALSO REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... KEPT A SCHC MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN BOYD... HOLT... AND WHEELER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
PERSISTENT SNOW HAS FALLEN JUST EAST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH SOME
LIGHTER SNOW BACKING UP INTO AREAS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 281. SLOWED
THE CLEARING A COUPLE HOURS ACROSS THE WEST... BUT RECENT TRENDS IN
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AND HI RES MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL OCCUR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL LIFT
DISAPPEARING AFTER SUNSET. AN 850HPA RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS
OVERNIGHT... HELPING TO WEAKEN THE FLOW. WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT... THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE AND LEAD
TO COOLER MIN TEMPS. LOWERED A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE AREA... WHICH
FOLLOWS MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CLOSELY.
SUNDAY... RIDGES AT 500HPA AND 850HPA CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH A LULL IN THE UPPER JET. ALL MODELS SHOWING DECENT WAA
WITH H85 TEMPS AT KLBF RISING FROM AROUND 0C AT 12Z TO 7C AT 00Z.
TEMPS APPROACH 8C IN THE PANHANDLE BUT STAY AROUND 3C FAR NORTH
CENTRAL. A DOWNSLOPE REGIME WILL AID IN WARMING AND DRYING ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN MIXING TO 750HPA PER NAM SOUNDINGS... PREVIOUS
FORECAST HIGHS NEAR 60F SEEM REASONABLE SO MADE LITTLE CHANGE. THE
HIGHS ALSO AGREE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. DESPITE LOW RH IN THE
AFTERNOON... NEAR 20 PERCENT FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF HWY 83... WIND
WILL NOT SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL OFFER UP SOME DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEASONAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S...WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION EAST AS A
CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NRN UTAH AND SWRN
WYOMING. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...STRONG MID LEVEL WAA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE...WILL LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS INDICATE SOME MEAGER
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FAR EASTERN CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ALL
LIFT A DECENT AREA OF MID LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL END BRIEFLY ACROSS THE
EAST TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO SWRN NEBRASKA. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS REACHING 45 TO 50
DEGREES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WITH HEATING AND THE APPG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN CWA TUES AFTN. I DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A ERICSON TO SPRINGVIEW LINE AS THIS IS WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA...I DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHRAS
AS THESE AREAS AS THEY WILL BE INVOF OF THE H7 FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE EXTENDED PERIOD PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEYOND TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...AND A MIX
OF RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEDS
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TRACKS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ITS WAKE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT. QPF/S WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM...SO
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY DECENT SNOW ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHILE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
THE MVFR CIGS EAST OF NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO VFR THIS EVENING...AOA 02Z. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE FCST AREA SUNDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL
AREAS FROM 02Z THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
317 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SATURDAY DEALS WITH A COLD FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN RATHER
THICK THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... MAINLY CONFINED TO THE PINE RIDGE. WEAK RADAR
ECHOES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA... BUT WITH DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25F... ONLY RESULT IS VIRGA.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WORKS
TOWARD THE SURFACE. REMOVED MENTION OF SPRINKLES SOUTH OF NEB HWY 2
AS LIFT IN THE LOWER 200HPA DISAPPEARS. THROUGH 06Z... BEST
SATURATION AND LIFT EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND NORTHWEST
CHERRY COUNTIES... SO RETAINED LIKELY POPS FOR A SMALL AREA ALONG
THE SD BORDER. HRRR HINTS AT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST... SO
EXTENDED SCHC POPS SOUTH TOWARD KTIF AND EAST TOWARD KONL. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SWITCH TO SNOW AT MERRIMAN AROUND 03Z
AND VALENTINE AROUND 05Z. USED A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RA TO RASN
TO SN FROM WEST TO EAST.
SNOWFALL WISE... SOUNDINGS AT KVTN SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
BELOW 600HPA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIFT BELOW 800HPA... WHERE THE
DGZ GENERALLY LINES UP WITH 600-700HPA. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL
FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S WHICH WILL LIMIT SLR. START AROUND 10:1
FOR 06-12Z AND INCREASE TO NEAR CLIMO... 12-13:1... BY LATE MORNING.
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE AROUND 1 INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 20 WEST
OF KVTN AND A DUSTING FROM KAIA TO KONL.
HAVE WINDS PICKING UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE FROPA. NAM INDICATING
850HPA WINDS NEAR 35KTS AND A 1MB/HR PRESSURE CHANGE. MECHANICAL
FORCING WILL BRING MUCH OF THIS TO THE SURFACE AND WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. STRONG CAA IS EVIDENT WITH 850HPA
TEMPS DROPPING FROM 1C AT KLBF AT 06Z TO NEAR -5C BY 12Z. ALSO...
SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE
FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON HOW THESE FACTORS WILL BALANCE...
SO MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS. OVERALL... FORECAST LOWS ARE
VERY CLOSE TO MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY... MAX TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AS BLUSTERY NORTH
WINDS AND SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANY SUBZERO H85 TEMPS.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE GENERALLY 2-3F BELOW MOS GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 30S
NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH. NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK
LIFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY. KONL TEMP PROFILE MAINLY SUPPORTS SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON... BUT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND SFC WET BULB
ABOVE 0C... TRANSITIONED BACK TO RASN MIX.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE TAKES HOLD
ON THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST BLEND OF 4 GUIDANCE DATA
SETS PLUS BIAS CORRECTION PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SUNDAY. THE EKD...ECE...MEX GUIDANCE BLEND PLUS BIAS CORRECTION
FOR MONDAY PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FULL SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY AS SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT IN FROM A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE
WRN U.S.. WEST WINDS SUNDAY SUPPORT DEEPER MIXING THAN THE SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY. SO DESPITE THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT HIGHS MONDAY ARE FAIRLY MODEST. THE FORECAST IS DRY.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF ARCTIC AIR SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH PRODUCES LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDS TO NEAR 10C AT 850MB SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A HOT PROD REACHES INTO THE FCST AREA
TUESDAY AND H850MB TEMPERATURES SPIKE REACHING 16C TO 20C. THE GFS
IS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECM WHICH BACKS A COLD FRONT INTO NRN NEB.
A BLENDED APPROACH PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE 70S SOUTH AND 60S TO NEAR
70 NORTH.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A PIECE OF THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH
AND NRN PLAINS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL
BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NWRN NEB.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP AS A RESULT OF
THE HOT PROD TUESDAY. THE ECM AND GFS SHOW SOME SORT OF CONVECTION
FORMING AS A RESULT. MOST OF THIS IS EAST OF THE FCST AREA. THE
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH H500MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50 TO 70KT.
A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE FCST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME
AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT...500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -25C TO -30C.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE DEEP
LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATING THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO FORMING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO PULL LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS THESE DAYS MOSTLY IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S ARE BELOW NORMAL AS IS THE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM
CPC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN BKN SKY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA NEAR KCDR AND KIEN WHERE LIGHT RAIN MAY RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KVTN...KANW...AND KONL. WIND WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS IT
TURNS NORTHWESTERLY...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
TUESDAY COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FIRE. THE GFS AND ECM BRING A
WARM SPOKE OF DRY AIR NORTH INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
83 WHICH COULD RESULT IN HUMIDITY NEAR OR BELOW 15 PERCENT. WINDS
BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWEST IN THE WARM DRY AIR AND INCREASE TO AROUND
20 MPH IMPLYING GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE ECM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
AND DELAYS THE DRY AIR UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...SNIVELY
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1007 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT...BRINGING GOOD RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1005 PM SATURDAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY COLLAPSED
WITH ONLY RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NC COAST AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. 01Z RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS STILL
SHOW PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT OVERHEAD AND THEREFORE
I AM RELUCTANT TO PULL POPS BACK TOO MUCH...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
A LINE FROM FLORENCE AND MARION COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SOUTHPORT
WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
REMAIN.
WHY DID PRECIPITATION FALL APART? WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS INJECTING HEAT INTO
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LIKELY REDUCING INSTABILITY OVER THE
CAROLINAS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THERE IS SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS GULF CONVECTION SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT
OTHERWISE ONGOING LOCALLY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...STILL EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
THEIR CURRENT READINGS AND REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
DISCUSSION FROM 615 PM FOLLOWS...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
LINKED TO AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING NE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND 300 MB WINDS ACCELERATING INTO A JET
STREAK CENTERED ACROSS VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY WON`T
BECOME ANY MORE INTENSE THAN IT IS NOW...BUT SHOULD LARGELY
MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
CAPE FEAR AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...DROPPING A WIDESPREAD
0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION.
AT THE SURFACE A FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDING
ROUGHLY FROM NEAR COLUMBIA TO DARLINGTON...THEN VEERED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD GEORGETOWN AND OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
TOWER. DEWPOINT MAY BE THE BEST ANALYSIS FIELD TO USE WITH THIS
FRONT AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT TO
THE 50S TO THE NORTH. SURFACE PARCELS ARE EITHER THERMODYNAMICALLY
STABLE ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA OR CAPPED ACROSS NE SOUTH
CAROLINA...HOWEVER WHEN CONSIDERING A PARCEL ORIGINATING FROM
ABOUT 4000 FEET ALOFT CAPE RANGES FROM 200 J/KG ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA TO NEARLY 500 J/KG OVER MYRTLE BEACH AND GEORGETOWN. THIS
EXPLAINS THE LIGHTNING OBSERVED IN THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA.
THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS MADE EARLY TO RAISE POPS TO 100 PERCENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FLORENCE AND MARION TO WHITEVILLE
AND WILMINGTON. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION...THEN BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
CAPE FEAR REGION. AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE GFS AND NAM ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE WITH SURFACE WINDS...HOWEVER THE 17Z AND 18Z
RUNS OF THE HRRRX (NOT HRRR) APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
OBSERVED RADAR ECHOES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JAMMED
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINA INTERIOR WHILE A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST AND INSHORE WATERS WAVERS BUT EXHIBITS
LITTLE MOVEMENT...BEFORE LIFTING AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE PERIODS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
ARE APT TO OCCUR SUNDAY...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE
RAINFALL APPEARS TIMED TO CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY. INSTABILITY THIS PERIOD SHOWS 2 MAXIMUMS
WITH THE FIRST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS AND LOW
LEVEL BUOYANCY INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE FLEDGLING WARM FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SECOND PEAK IN CAPE VALUES WILL BE
SEEN MONDAY AHEAD AND ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
REACHES THE COAST AROUND 5-6 PM. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY COULD BE STRONG. 1/2-1 INCH RAINFALL AVERAGES ACROSS NE
SC AND SE NC SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED.
MILDEST SEGMENT IN THIS PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS SOAR
WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE MOVING
OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY COULD BE STRONG. THE COOLEST
PORTION OF THE PERIOD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE REGION AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY TUE WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. WEAK 5H RIDGE BUILDING ON
WED SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATER WED AND WED NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE
RIDGE WILL LIMIT CLOUDS AND PREVENT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WED AND WED NIGHT.
AMPLIFICATION OF MID LEVEL PATTERN AND RESULTING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
STARTS INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY WITH THE GFS/ECMWF THU-SAT. THIS IS
DOWN TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN. THE GFS IS MORE
AMPLIFIED BUT INTERESTINGLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. USUALLY
AMPLIFICATION SLOWS THINGS DOWN BUT THE STRONGER MID LEVEL PUSH IN
THE GFS HELPS MOVE THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM EAST AT A FASTER RATE. WORTH
NOTING THE WPC SOLUTION AND THE 12Z CANADIAN ARE IN THE ECMWF
CAMP...AS IS THE INHERITED FORECAST. THUS NO MAJOR CHANGE IN
THINKING WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE LATE WEEK FORECAST.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE THU AND REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY THU NIGHT AND FRI...THROUGH SAT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SAT
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE COOLER AIR MASS REMAINS WEST
OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THINGS WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED THIS TAF PERIOD. A BATCH
OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
MAINLY AFFECTING ILM AND LBT...HOWEVER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL
SITES. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LOWERING CEILINGS TO
IFR AT ALL SITES BY 03-04Z. MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END
OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PLODS NORTHWARD. LOOK FOR IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE RIDES UP THE FRONT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN AND LOW CIGS SUN AFTN THRU MONDAY MORNING
WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. VFR TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH RIDGES
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM SATURDAY...WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND WHERE GUSTS HAVE
RECENTLY REACHED 16-19 KNOTS OFF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. THE TREND
STILL SHOULD BE TOWARD WEAKER WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS HAVE
BUILT TO A SOLID 4 FEET NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...2-4 FEET ELSEWHERE.
DISCUSSION FROM 615 PM FOLLOWS...
A WEAK FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS...AND SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS...10-15 KT FROM THE ENE...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT IN
THE SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WAS TO INCREASE FORECAST
RAIN CHANCES SUBSTANTIALLY. RADAR INDICATES THERE IS A SEVERAL
HOUR BLOCK OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR ARRIVING IN THE MID-
LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A REDUCTION IN THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE LATEST CHECK ARE 3-4 FEET
IN A COMBINATION OF 8-9 SECOND SWELL AND 4-6 SECOND WIND WAVES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND MUCH OF SUNDAY
BEFORE VEERING TO S-SW AS A STALLED COASTAL FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR HEADLINES APPEAR NEEDED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SSW-SW WINDS 15 KT SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND
ISOLATED TSTMS HOWEVER WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO 1 NM AT TIMES ALONG
WITH ISOLATED GUSTY TSTM WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
IT ARE BELOW ADVISORY RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR SW WINDS 15-20 KT EARLY MONDAY AND 3-5 FT SEAS. A
GOOD IDEA TO GET RADAR UPDATES...AS THE MARINE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH TRANSIT OF A WARM AND A COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
TUE INTO WED WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER WED AND WED NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW TUE MORNING WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
WEAKENING GRADIENT TUE WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY DECREASE IN SPEEDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TUE NIGHT SLOWLY
VEERS TO EAST LATER WED AND THEN SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT ON THU ENDING UP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KT THU AND AROUND 20 KT THU NIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT TUE AM WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WED EVENING. DEVELOPMENT
OF ONSHORE FLOW WED NIGHT WILL COMMENCE AN INCREASING TREND IN
SEAS...ACCELERATED BY THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AND AN SCA
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...HDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
358 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON
THE FRONT ALONG AND WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS STILL INCHING ITS WAY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING
CONVERGENCE EVIDENT IN A GROWING CU FIELD OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MLCAPE IS HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...WHERE DEEP MOISTURE IS GREATER AND PW
IS AROUND 1.25". SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE
AS THE CONVERGENCE INCREASES INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR...SO WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE HRRR SHOWS SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE 00-03Z AND
ACTUALLY CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z AS THE INDUCED ISENTROPIC LIFT
AROUND 295K TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT SATURATES A SHALLOW LAYER.
THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF SKIES CLEAR ALOFT..WHICH VISIBLE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS IS POSSIBLE...THEN SOME FOG MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHEAST WINDS TAKE OVER. LOWS 47-55.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL
OVER SC ON SATURDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ALONG THE
FRONT TOWARD THE NC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL US TROUGH. DEEPENING..BUT STILL RATHER
SHALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF LIGHT
RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...A TREND NOTED IN THE PAST
2 OR 3 RUNS OF MOST GUIDANCE. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH...AND THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM FRIDAY...
SPLIT STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND WESTERN NOAM WILL CONVERGE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE ASSOCIATED STRONGEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS WITHIN EACH BRANCH
LIKELY TO SPLIT CENTRAL NC. NONETHELESS...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP A
LINGERING HYBRID CAD REGIME OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUDY AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE RELATIVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG 1) ALONG AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE WEDGE
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN RAH CWA...AND 2) OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...WHERE DEEPER LIFT AND SATURATION FROM NORTHERN STREAM
INFLUENCE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND MAXIMIZES ACROSS WESTERN NC AND VA.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH TO
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN BOTH AREAS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN.
A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN MON AFTERNOON...WITH OTHERWISE CLEARING AND COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK...INCLUDING SOME MID TO UPPER
30S POSSIBLE WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE CENTER OF THE
INCOMING SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
THE PATTERN WILL TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK...AS A
BROAD/ELONGATED POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES FROM THE CA
BAJA TO HUDSON BAY...AND CONSEQUENTLY DIRECTS CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE EAST COAST. AN
ACCOMPANYING WAVY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS THU...AND SLOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST BY EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...YIELDING HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...SURGES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RUNS ATOP THE
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE
FRONT AND CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER FROM MVFR TO IFR. RAIN AND
DRIZZLE SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
OVER SC TOWARD THE NC COAST.
OUTLOOK: THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHALLOW OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22/CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON
THE FRONT ALONG AND WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS STILL INCHING ITS WAY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING
CONVERGENCE EVIDENT IN A GROWING CU FIELD OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MLCAPE IS HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...WHERE DEEP MOISTURE IS GREATER AND PW
IS AROUND 1.25". SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE
AS THE CONVERGENCE INCREASES INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR...SO WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE HRRR SHOWS SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE 00-03Z AND
ACTUALLY CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z AS THE INDUCED ISENTROPIC LIFT
AROUND 295K TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT SATURATES A SHALLOW LAYER.
THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF SKIES CLEAR ALOFT..WHICH VISIBLE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS IS POSSIBLE...THEN SOME FOG MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHEAST WINDS TAKE OVER. LOWS 47-55.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL
OVER SC ON SATURDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ALONG THE
FRONT TOWARD THE NC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL US TROUGH. DEEPENING..BUT STILL RATHER
SHALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF LIGHT
RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...A TREND NOTED IN THE PAST
2 OR 3 RUNS OF MOST GUIDANCE. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH...AND THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...
SUN AND MON: A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOVE
NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THE CAD AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
LINGER...AT LEAST ACROSS THE FAR NW...INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM ERODES IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS CAPPING OUT
IN THE MID 60S NORTH...LOW 70S SOUTH. THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT WRT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN THAT REGARD HAS INCREASED. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA WILL GET ON MON AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST. GENERALLY...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH AND THE RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MON...WITH MON NIGHT BEING DRY AND TEMPS
LOWERING. MON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SE. MON
NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT: A RETURN OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER
FOR MID-WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND
RIDGING ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TUE AND WED. LOWS
MODERATING FROM UPPER LOW 40S TUE NIGHT TO MID TO UPPER 40S WED
NIGHT.
THU AND FRI: ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY
EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU THROUGH FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...SURGES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RUNS ATOP THE
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE
FRONT AND CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER FROM MVFR TO IFR. RAIN AND
DRIZZLE SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
OVER SC TOWARD THE NC COAST.
OUTLOOK: THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHALLOW OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...22/CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON
THE FRONT ALONG AND WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. ATTENDANT
TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MTNS... WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY STRONG WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION
WITHIN THE 50KT LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING OF THE FRONT FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN A DUD SO FAR EAST OF
THE MTNS. MAY STILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK THROUGH DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOME WEAK ELEVATED FINALLY DEVELOPS.
THE LLJ JET SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING WITH TRAILING SFC COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EVENING... FROM 21-00Z IN THE WEST TO 06-09Z IN THE EAST...WHICH
IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR TREND
WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
FRONT CERTAINLY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER STABILIZING WHAT WAS ALREADY EXPECTED TO BE
A WEAKLY BUOYANT AIRMASS. A WEAKER CONVECTIVE SIGNAL CAN BE SEEN IN
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF NMM AND ARW SIMULATIONS AS WELL...WITH THE
LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAVING DOWNGRADED THE MARGINAL OVER CENTRAL NC
TO GENERAL THUNDER. EXPECT A NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT...WITH ISOLATED
THREAT FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER CELL STILL
A POSSIBILITY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON BREAKS IN CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80S EAST. CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY EVENING WILL SUPPORT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S NW TO
LOWER 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...
DOWNSTREAM OF A PAIR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL US... A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTING FROM THE GULF NEWD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL LIFT ATOP THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR
SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK ACROSS...WITH BULK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CLOSE TO THE COAST.
MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK QUITE CHALLENGING WITH A MOSTLY DRY CAD
AIRMASS IN PLACE ON THE NORTH-COOL SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHALLOW OVERRUNNING WILL SUPPORT STRATUS
LAYER OPAQUE ENOUGH TO MODULATE DAYTIME HEATING.
HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...AND MAY NEED TO KNOCK DOWN
FURTHER IF TRENDS CONTINUE. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 60S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...
SUN AND MON: A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOVE
NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THE CAD AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
LINGER...AT LEAST ACROSS THE FAR NW...INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM ERODES IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS CAPPING OUT
IN THE MID 60S NORTH...LOW 70S SOUTH. THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT WRT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN THAT REGARD HAS INCREASED. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA WILL GET ON MON AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST. GENERALLY...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH AND THE RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MON...WITH MON NIGHT BEING DRY AND TEMPS
LOWERING. MON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SE. MON
NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT: A RETURN OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER
FOR MID-WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND
RIDGING ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TUE AND WED. LOWS
MODERATING FROM UPPER LOW 40S TUE NIGHT TO MID TO UPPER 40S WED
NIGHT.
THU AND FRI: ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY
EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU THROUGH FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 50 KT LLJ
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...IN ADDITION TO A PERIOD OF MVFR
STRATUS THROUGH MID MORNING.
ANY SUB-VFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 18-21Z IN THE
WEST TO 03-06Z IN THE EAST. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS
HIGHEST AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT KFAY/KRWI FOR STORMS. ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. OTHERWISE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE 12-16 KT RANGE... WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KTS.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COULD RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY UPGLIDE SETS IN ATOP LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
OUTLOOK: THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHALLOW OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
356 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY, THEN STALL
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS HAVE SKIRTED THE COAST BUT OUR CWA
HAS GENERALLY BEEN DRY AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAP/NSSL WRF AND HRRR ALL SHOW LINE OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST AROUND 11/12Z THIS MORNING BUT WITH NO
ACTIVITY ON RADAR...THINK THAT IS OVERDONE. STILL LOOKING FOR A
LINE OF CONVECTION DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REMOVED OUR AREA FROM THE
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AND DROPPED US BACK TO GENERAL THUNDER.
STABILITY PARAMETERS SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED SHEAR. THINK THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE WARM...GIVEN THE WARM
START THIS MORNING...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S IN MOST
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS
LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OFFSHORE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN AS LOWS DROP INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF EASTERN NC
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AGAIN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
EASTERN NC SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS IN MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS/WX SAT/SUN AND MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TRANSIENT UPPER FEATURES. TEMPS SATURDAY A
BIT COOLER DUE TO COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH UPPER
60S INLAND. TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG
THE COAST ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE SUNDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH TIMING OF
WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM, MEAGER
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH MOST OF IT ELEVATED IN NATURE SO
NO SEVERE EXPECTED. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUES, YIELDING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FIRST HALF OF MONDAY THOUGH TREND
WILL BE FOR IMPROVING WEATHER AND PERHAPS A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AS
EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN WSW WITH COLUMN DRYING
PROMOTING WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S (UPPER 60S OBX).
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN INCREASING LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL YIELD HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND
TO 60S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 40S INLAND TO
AROUND 50 ACROSS THE BEACHES/OBX. NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEMS MAY AFFECT THE AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THUNDER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM THURSDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES THIS TAF CYCLE. CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z BEFORE BECOMING
VFR AGAIN AFTER 15Z. SCATTERED SHRA MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS AFTER 09Z...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AFTER 15Z. ISOLD
TSTMS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME TO WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS. S-SW WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT
ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, THEN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT IN MVFR
CEILINGS BEHIND A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS LATE MONDAY WITH SUB-VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD/ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORIES WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR GUSTY S/SW WINDS 15-25
KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 8 FEET. CURRENT OFFSHORE PLATFORMS SHOWING 6
FEET AT THE BUOY 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET AND 8 FEET AT
DIAMOND BUOY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY. FOLLOWED LATEST
SWAN/NWPS FOR SHORT-TERM WAVE HEIGHTS WITH 5-8 FEET...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...DROPPING TO 4-6 FEET BY LATER
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS, AND SEAS
REMAINING ELEVATED ABOVE 6 FT ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUNDAY AS
WINDS DIMINISH VEERING TO EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT ON
MONDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 6 FT AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. WINDS VEER NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTH
ON TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS AND 6+ FT SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO
DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS 2-4
FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
355 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON
THE FRONT ALONG AND WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. ATTENDANT
TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MTNS... WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY STRONG WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION
WITHIN THE 50KT LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING OF THE FRONT FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN A DUD SO FAR EAST OF
THE MTNS. MAY STILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK THROUGH DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOME WEAK ELEVATED FINALLY DEVELOPS.
THE LLJ JET SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING WITH TRAILING SFC COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EVENING... FROM 21-00Z IN THE WEST TO 06-09Z IN THE EAST...WHICH
IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR TREND
WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
FRONT CERTAINLY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER STABILIZING WHAT WAS ALREADY EXPECTED TO BE
A WEAKLY BUOYANT AIRMASS. A WEAKER CONVECTIVE SIGNAL CAN BE SEEN IN
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF NMM AND ARW SIMULATIONS AS WELL...WITH THE
LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAVING DOWNGRADED THE MARGINAL OVER CENTRAL NC
TO GENERAL THUNDER. EXPECT A NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT...WITH ISOLATED
THREAT FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER CELL STILL
A POSSIBILITY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON BREAKS IN CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80S EAST. CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY EVENING WILL SUPPORT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S NW TO
LOWER 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...
DOWNSTREAM OF A PAIR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL US... A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTING FROM THE GULF NEWD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL LIFT ATOP THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR
SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK ACROSS...WITH BULK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CLOSE TO THE COAST.
MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK QUITE CHALLENGING WITH A MOSTLY DRY CAD
AIRMASS IN PLACE ON THE NORTH-COOL SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHALLOW OVERRUNNING WILL SUPPORT STRATUS
LAYER OPAQUE ENOUGH TO MODULATE DAYTIME HEATING.
HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...AND MAY NEED TO KNOCK DOWN
FURTHER IF TRENDS CONTINUE. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 60S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...
SUN AND MON: A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOVE
NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THE CAD AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
LINGER...AT LEAST ACROSS THE FAR NW...INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM ERODES IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS CAPPING OUT
IN THE MID 60S NORTH...LOW 70S SOUTH. THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT WRT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN THAT REGARD HAS INCREASED. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA WILL GET ON MON AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST. GENERALLY...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH AND THE RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MON...WITH MON NIGHT BEING DRY AND TEMPS
LOWERING. MON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SE. MON
NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT: A RETURN OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER
FOR MID-WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND
RIDGING ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TUE AND WED. LOWS
MODERATING FROM UPPER LOW 40S TUE NIGHT TO MID TO UPPER 40S WED
NIGHT.
THU AND FRI: ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY
EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU THROUGH FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 158 AM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 50 KT LLJ
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...IN ADDITION TO A PERIOD OF
MVFR STRATUS THROUGH MID MORNING.
ANY SUB-VFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 18-21Z IN THE
WEST TO 03-06Z IN THE EAST. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS
HIGHEST AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT KFAY/KRWI FOR STORMS. ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. OTHERWISE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE 12-16 KT RANGE... WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK: THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHALLOW OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1153 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
RAIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO REACH THE GROUND IN THE DEVILS LAKE
AREA FROM THE LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH...SO BUMPED UP POPS.
ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AS READINGS HAVE BEEN STAYING IN THE
40S IN THAT AREA. THINK THEY SHOULD HANG ONTO MILD READINGS A BIT
LONGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE EAST HAS FALLEN INTO
THE LOWER 30S...BUT GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN THINK THEY
WILL START TO RISE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP COMING IN SHOULD
START OUT AS RAIN BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH
TOWARDS MORNING AS THE FRONT SAGS DOWN. KEPT THE THEME OF A
DUSTING BY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT SO
FAR OBS SITES AND WEB CAMS SHOW NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND.
BETTER RETURNS TO THE WEST NORTH OF MINOT...AND PERSONAL WEATHER
STATIONS SHOW SOME PRECIP GETTING TO THE GROUND. HRRR HAS
ACCUMULATING PRECIP ENTERING THE FAR NORTHWEST AROUND 05Z...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL KEEP THE POPS COMING IN MOSTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER ON
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL THINK WE SHOULD SEE SOME NICE DROPS WITH
CLEAR SKIES BEFORE CLOUDS COMING IN FOR THE EAST AND WITH THE COLD
FRONT COMING INTO THE NORTHWEST. WILL KEEP OUR LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
NO CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH
MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON SKIES WERE STILL
MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FA WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE. STILL
HAVE SOME SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS OVER NORTHWEST MN. GOOD WESTERLY
SFC FLOW OVER WESTERN ND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC LOW...WHERE TEMPS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 50S. THE SFC LOW IS OVER SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY
12 FRI. A BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM THIS LOW WHICH WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS UP INTO NORTHWEST MN BY 12Z FRI...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE KDVL
REGION INTO NW MN. THIS PCPN WOULD GENERALLY FALL AS SNOW WITH A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY MORNING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD ON
FRI...ENDING UP BY 00Z SAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL AGAIN OCCUR ALONG/BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...SO
THEY WILL SINK FROM AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO A VALLEY
CITY TO FARGO TO KPKD LINE BY 00Z SAT. TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH
DURING THE DAY FRI TO CHANGE THIS PCPN FROM LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PCPN...OVER TO LIGHT RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE EXPECTED PCPN
FROM THE EVENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRI (EXCEPTING THE FAR
SOUTH AND SE FA)...WHICH WILL THEREFORE LIMIT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. COULD BE A LITTLE WINDY ON FRI AFTERNOON AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS TEMPS FALL FRI
NIGHT THE PCPN WILL CHANGE BACK TO A MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. AN INCH OR
SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER IN SAT MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL MN...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. HIGHS LOOK COOL ON SAT BUT THEY DO WARM UP A LITTLE MORE
BY SUNDAY. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SFC LOW AND A LITTLE
LIGHT PCPN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH SOME INCONSISTENCY ON THIS WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
BUILD AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY WILL RETROGRADE INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO AS SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA AND
INTO ONTARIO. SPLIT FLOW WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH
NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES.
THE GFS WAS A FASTER AND A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF.
WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MON THROUGH THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
ALL SITES ARE VFR...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO
KDVL. THERE SHOULD BE A DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AND A COLD FRONT COMES
DOWN...ALTHOUGH EXACT PARTICULARS ARE HARD TO NAIL DOWN. HAVE CIGS
GOING MVFR AS THE FRONT COMES DOWN...STARTING AROUND 11-12Z IN THE
NORTHWEST TO NEAR MID DAY AT KFAR. SOME LOWER 3-5SM VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND SOME LOWER VIS IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT WILL ADD IT AS IT GETS CLOSER. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THEN BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS IN THE BACK HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY TO VFR AT SOME SITES IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
156 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS AND WINDS FOR SLOWER OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF FRONT. THE
WIND SHIFT WAS JUST APPROACHI8NG THE OHIO RIVER AS OF 06Z.
1100 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE MORE SPUNKY AS THEY MOVE INTO A
FAVORABLE 45 KT 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR REGION...HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
LOW TOPS AND LACK OF LIGHTNING...THE HODOGRAPHS IN THIS AREA ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK
ROTATION...BUT SO FAR DO NOT THINK ENOUGH CAPE TO WARRANT ANY
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. SOME OF THE GUSTS FROM THESE SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN IMPRESSIVE IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN FOCUS FOR NEAR TERM FORECAST IS COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ONLY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS...AND CAPE IS MINIMAL. THE
NAM WHICH OFTEN RUNS HIGH ON CAPE IS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 300J/KG
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND HAS MOST OF THAT BEHIND
THIS FIRST LINE -- CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. DID KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTIONED BUT NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THIS FAR EAST. WITH DECENT FLOW IN
PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
CELLS. PWATS POOL UP TO AROUND 1.25IN WITH THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND
AS WELL...SO BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
TRIED TO SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND AND THE
SECONDARY BAND WITH THE COLD FRONT...PWATS SHOWING THIS AS WELL
WITH A QUICK DIP UNDER 1.0IN BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING UNTIL THIS
SECONDARY BAND PASSES...BUT WITH THIS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT
TIMING IS NOT IDEAL.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND LINGERS
THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE WISE...HELD TEMPS UP TONIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES USING A CONSENSUS BLEND...AND THE HRRR AS FAR OUT AS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DOMINATING FEATURE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR MOVES IN...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT GETS
PUSHED SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN DURING SATURDAY ON SOUTHEAST
FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT EAST FACING SLOPES OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
HOWEVER NO PRECIP WITH THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL
SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SATURDAY.
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE SATURDAY...LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN ON
THE EAST FACING SLOPES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARMER DESPITE THE
CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT OUT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY AND MILDER NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM COMES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE
SUNDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE DIVERGENT ON THE
STRENGTH...TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW COMING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. THE EURO MODEL IS MORE WRAPPED UP AND
MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE
OPEN AND FASTER. WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOWN BY THE
MODELS...THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND FASTER SOLUTION OF THE MAJORITY OF
THE MODELS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THUS...USING GFS AS A
GUIDE. I HAVE CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY DAYS END.
STILL...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY FLOW TO REACH INTO THE
70S MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN LOW LANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE...WITH COOLER...AND
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY..PRECIPITATION.WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...GENERATING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAVE FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SHRA...LOWERING
TO MVFR IN ITS WAKE WITH THE WIND SHIFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRI...WITH MVFR IN STRATOCU AND
DRIZZLE/MIST.
LIGHT S SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOME LIGHT W IN ITS WAKE
OVERNIGHT. STRONG S FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS TO
MODERATE W BEHIND IT BY DAWN...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT W DURING THE
DAY FRI.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CAT MAY GO IFR OR LOWER THAN
FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 03/25/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M L L L L M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/JW/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/JW/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
928 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
APPEARS PART OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL SEE MAINLY A WET SNOW
AFTER 1-2 AM. OVERALL IMPACT SHOULD BE REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. RAIN MAY ALSO CHANGE
TO SNOW AS FAR EAST AS ENID AND PONCA CITY PER RAP SOUNDINGS. MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BETWEEN 10-11 PM. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM
OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016/
DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SOMETIME IN THE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY NEAR THE 850 MB
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN THE
10 PM TO 1 AM TIME RANGE. OVERALL...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT
IN MANY AREAS. SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET 0.50 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN.
AS FAR AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS CONCERNED TONIGHT...THINK
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLARS COULD OCCUR
OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
FORECAST MUCAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG COMBINED VERY STRONG 0-6
KM SHEAR OF 45-75 KT SUPPORT MAINLY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AND
MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO OF AROUND 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF A WICHITA FALLS TO PURCELL TO SEMINOLE LINE WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT. NOT EXPECTING MANY SEVERE REPORTS. APPEARS MOST...IF
NOT ALL...SEVERE STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY
METRO AREA...WHICH SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY STORMS IN THE 2 TO 5 AM
TIME FRAME. ONGOING SPC MARGINAL RISK AREA IN THE 11 PM TO 7 AM
TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE VERY REASONABLE.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR TURN OVER TO SNOW IN
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. KEPT THIS MENTION
NORTH OF A CHEYENNE TO WATONGA TO PONCA CITY LINE...PER LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...RELYING MORE HEAVILY ON THE LATEST HRRR/RUC13
RUNS. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOW...BUT
COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH IN
SOMEWHERE. ANY SNOW WOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACCUMULATING DUE
TO WARM GROUND CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER BEFORE 10 AM NEAR AND EAST OF
I-35. RAPID CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
SEEMED TO BE REASONABLE. NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH A
SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD. FREEZING OR SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN RURAL LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
FOR NOW...DID NOT ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW COLD IT WILL GET. WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE LOWS THINKING
CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL FORM AND INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL MONITOR FOR VERY HIGH WILDFIRE
CONCERNS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
HOT...DRY...AND WINDY CONDITIONS WEST OF IT...AND WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS EAST OF THIS LINE. POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG SHEAR...WOULD
FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE.
FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.
MBS
FIRE WEATHER...
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY
AND WEST OF A DRYLINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 41 59 33 68 / 90 20 0 0
HOBART OK 40 61 35 68 / 60 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 45 63 36 71 / 50 10 0 0
GAGE OK 33 62 32 72 / 80 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 36 58 28 68 / 100 30 0 0
DURANT OK 49 59 38 68 / 20 30 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1058 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRINGING A COOLER AIRMASS TO END THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MY FAR EASTERN ZONES AND DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ON A GUSTY WEST WIND. HRRR KEEPS THE REGION
BASICALLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SO I BACKED OFF ON THE
POPS RATHER DRASTICALLY.
THE TYPICAL POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUD SHIELD WILL KEEP WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAINLY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS SEEING THE BRIGHTEST SKIES AND MORE OF A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS.
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW WITH THE TENDENCY FOR CLEARING
LATER IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST..
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. OVER SERN ZONES WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL
BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THU WARM
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DRY COOL AIR MASS OVERSPREADS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. STUBBORN CLOUDS
WILL BREAK OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SEES MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS.
SHOULD SEE PATCHY FOG SATURDAY MORNING AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
OVERHEAD BY 12Z. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE`VE SEEN IN
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 30S SOUTHEAST.
SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH RETURN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING OVER PA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PREVENT UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS FROM
REACHING THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAURELS...BUT WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE
UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY MODEST RIDGING AND A RETURN TO SWLY MEAN
FLOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES ENEWD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE N ATLANTIC BY 28/12Z. A BROAD AREA OF RAIN SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WX INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS STILL WANTS TO END EASTER WEEKEND ON A WET NOTE BY
BRINGING RAIN INTO WESTERN PA BY SUNDAY EVENING. ABOVE AVERAGE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD STILL EXISTS CONCERNING THE SYSTEM FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WPC SUGGESTS LEANING SOMEWHAT AWAY FROM THE SLOW
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD WITH TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE
UPSTREAM ANOMALOUS RIDGE/TROUGH EVOLUTION FAVORING A MODERATELY
PROGRESSIVE MEAN FLOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF
THE FAST GFS/MEDIUM CMC/SLOW ECMWF RESULTS IN A CONSENSUS FCST MAX
POP CENTERED ON MONDAY 3/28.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS WILL HOLD ONTO THE MVFR/IFR INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL THE 18-21Z TIMEFRAME. ELSEWHERE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS IN THE 2000-3000` RANGE
TO BLEED OUT OF THE WESTERN AREAS FOR A TIME THROUGH MID DAY.
A GUSTY WEST WIND UP TO 20-25KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WEST.
MON...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NORMAL SNOWFALL IN WILLIAMSPORT FOR
JUST THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MARCH IS 5.9 INCHES. THIS NUMBER CLIMBS
JUST A BIT BY THE EOM.
ONLY 5.9 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON THERE. SO
THE ENTIRE 2015-16 WINTER CAN/T BEAT WHAT WOULD FALL IN AN
AVERAGE MARCH.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1057 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL STALL
NEAR THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. AFTER THE
LOW PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM EDT FRIDAY...ALL IN ALL THE FCST CONTINUES TO PAN OUT
THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATES TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NC/SC PIEDMONT AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NE GA. LIGHT/MODERATE SW
FLOW REMAINS PREVELANT ACROSS THESE AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
FRONTAL AXIS...WHERE SCT/BKN LOW STRATUS HAS PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SAID STRATUS WILL LIKELY DAMPEN MAX TEMPS
A BIT ALONG/SOUTH OF I85 THEREFORE BLENDED IN LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
MAV GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS SUCH A TREND WITH THE HIGHS BEING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. OTHERWISE...OPTED TO KEEP
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN UPSTATE AS 12Z 4KM NAM SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SOME MODEST CAPE
GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO
A 3-4 DEGREES INVERSION IN PLACE THUS CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT BEST
REGARDING FRONTAL FORCING BREAKING SAID CAP. OTHERWISE...LEFT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS FOR THIS UPDATE.
AS OF 330 AM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT
WAS POSITIONED FROM BIRMINGHAM...RUNNING NE OVER THE INTERSECTION
OF AL/GA/TN...NORTH ACROSS E. TN. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TN...WITH A
PATCH OF RAIN TRACKING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC. HRRR RUNS
AT 5Z AND 6Z HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THE PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY PEAKING ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT
AROUND DAY BREAK...REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A FEW SHOWERS TRIGGER WITH
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. A WIDER VIEW SHOWS LARGE BANDS OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GOM AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF FL. GIVEN THE RECENT RADAR TRENDS...RUNS OF HRRR...AND LARGE
SCALE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...I WILL LOWER POPS TO SCHC TO CHC OVER
THE CWA TODAY. THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE UNFAVORABLE...I WILL
REMOVE MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER
70S EAST OF THE MTNS.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS TO COASTAL AREAS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTH THE REGION WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD YIELD LIGHT NE WINDS BY LATE TONIGHT. I WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY WITH VARYING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50S EAST
OF I-85.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS TRICKY FOR
SATURDAY...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A CONTINUATION OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY. THE
OPERATIONAL NAM STILL DOES NOT TAKE THE FRONT AS FAR TO THE
EAST/SOUTH AS THE OTHER MODELS...SO WHEN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS
ON SATURDAY...THE OP-NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP. THIS
WOULD HAPPEN AT A TIME WHEN A SURFACE HIGH IS STILL IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO RESULT IN A CLASSIC WEDGE.
PRECIP WOULD NOT BE MUCH...BUT IT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO LOCK IN A COOL
AIR MASS...MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT FARTHER EAST...AND ARE NOT
NEARLY AS PRODUCTIVE WITH WEAK LIFT THAT BEGINS ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS RUNS...THE SREF SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS FAVORING
THE DRIER SOLUTION. PROBLEM IS...THE TREND ON THE GEFS IS FOR MORE
MEMBERS TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS RAISES THE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TEMP FCST...AND HAVE NUDGED THE HIGH TEMP DOWN A
BIT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE KEEPING THE POP FAIRLY LOW FOR THE
TIME BEING. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
PRODUCTIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO EXPECT
PRECIP TO BE DEVELOPING/SPREADING NE FROM GEORGIA AT DAYBREAK. THE
PRECIP PROB WILL ONLY INCREASE FROM THERE AS FORCING INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE REACH A MAXIMUM CENTERED AROUND 00Z MONDAY. FOR THE TIME
BEING...THE PRECIP PROB IS HELD IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY MAINLY BY
CONSENSUS WITH NEIGHBORS...BUT SUSPECT THIS WILL BE BUMPED UP TO
CATEGORICAL FOR SOME LENGTH OF TIME LATE SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
CARRIED OFF TO THE E/NE EARLY IN THE DAY. SO...PRECIP CHANCES
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE TN BORDER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO COME AROUND TO
W/NW BY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AFFORD A SIGNIFICANT REBOUND OF
TEMPS...BACK TO SOMETHING MORE THAN 5 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY IN-LINE WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST...SO FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. THE MODELS AGREE
THAT THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH UPPER
RIDGING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...SUPPORTING HIGH
PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...
PUSHING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THUS...
EXPECT WE WIL HAVE A TURN BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARMING TREND AFTER THAT. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF COMING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH A MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A FRONT LAYING OUT ON THE W SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 10Z INDICATED
THAT THE SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SLIDING
STEADILY EAST. SFC OBSERVATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SHOWED GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS...WITH PATCHY MVFR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOW CLOUD HEIGHTS REMAINING LOW
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LOWEST AROUND DAWN. HOWEVER...THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS
INCREASINGLY FAVORING VFR CEILINGS THROUGH MORNING. RADAR TRENDS AND
CAMS INDICATE THAT THE CHC FOR RAIN HAS LARGELY PASSED. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN FROM THE SW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...VEERING FROM THE NW DURING THE EARLY EVENING. KAVL WILL
MAINTAIN A NNW WIND...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85
CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND THUS RESTRICTIONS INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 80%
KGSP HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
KAVL HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
KAND HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
553 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL STALL
NEAR THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. AFTER THE
LOW PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OF 550 AM...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LIKELY PEAKED AROUND AN HOUR AGO.
I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCELERATE THE DECREASE OF POPS THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...I WILL CUT BACK ON QPF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. OVERALL...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS APPEAR ON
TRACK.
AS OF 330 AM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS
POSITIONED FROM BIRMINGHAM...RUNNING NE OVER THE INTERSECTION OF
AL/GA/TN...NORTH ACROSS E. TN. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TN...WITH A
PATCH OF RAIN TRACKING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC. HRRR RUNS
AT 5Z AND 6Z HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THE PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IS LIKELY PEAKING ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT AROUND DAY
BREAK...REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A FEW SHOWERS TRIGGER WITH AFTERNOON
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. A WIDER VIEW SHOWS LARGE BANDS OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GOM AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL.
GIVEN THE RECENT RADAR TRENDS...RUNS OF HRRR...AND LARGE SCALE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...I WILL LOWER POPS TO SCHC TO CHC OVER THE CWA
TODAY. THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE UNFAVORABLE...I WILL REMOVE
MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 70S EAST
OF THE MTNS.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS TO COASTAL AREAS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTH THE REGION WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD YIELD LIGHT NE WINDS BY LATE TONIGHT. I WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY WITH VARYING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50S EAST OF
I-85.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS TRICKY FOR
SATURDAY...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A CONTINUATION OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY. THE
OPERATIONAL NAM STILL DOES NOT TAKE THE FRONT AS FAR TO THE
EAST/SOUTH AS THE OTHER MODELS...SO WHEN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS
ON SATURDAY...THE OP-NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP. THIS
WOULD HAPPEN AT A TIME WHEN A SURFACE HIGH IS STILL IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO RESULT IN A CLASSIC WEDGE.
PRECIP WOULD NOT BE MUCH...BUT IT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO LOCK IN A COOL
AIR MASS...MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT FARTHER EAST...AND ARE NOT
NEARLY AS PRODUCTIVE WITH WEAK LIFT THAT BEGINS ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS RUNS...THE SREF SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS FAVORING
THE DRIER SOLUTION. PROBLEM IS...THE TREND ON THE GEFS IS FOR MORE
MEMBERS TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS RAISES THE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TEMP FCST...AND HAVE NUDGED THE HIGH TEMP DOWN A
BIT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE KEEPING THE POP FAIRLY LOW FOR THE
TIME BEING. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
PRODUCTIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO EXPECT
PRECIP TO BE DEVELOPING/SPREADING NE FROM GEORGIA AT DAYBREAK. THE
PRECIP PROB WILL ONLY INCREASE FROM THERE AS FORCING INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE REACH A MAXIMUM CENTERED AROUND 00Z MONDAY. FOR THE TIME
BEING...THE PRECIP PROB IS HELD IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY MAINLY BY
CONSENSUS WITH NEIGHBORS...BUT SUSPECT THIS WILL BE BUMPED UP TO
CATEGORICAL FOR SOME LENGTH OF TIME LATE SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
CARRIED OFF TO THE E/NE EARLY IN THE DAY. SO...PRECIP CHANCES
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE TN BORDER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO COME AROUND TO
W/NW BY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AFFORD A SIGNIFICANT REBOUND OF
TEMPS...BACK TO SOMETHING MORE THAN 5 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY IN-LINE WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST...SO FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. THE MODELS AGREE
THAT THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH UPPER
RIDGING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...SUPPORTING HIGH
PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...
PUSHING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THUS...
EXPECT WE WIL HAVE A TURN BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARMING TREND AFTER THAT. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF COMING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH A MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A FRONT LAYING OUT ON THE W SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 5Z INDICATED THAT
THE SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN TN AND NW GA...SLIDING
STEADILY EAST. SFC OBSERVATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SHOWED GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOW CLOUD HEIGHTS DESCENDING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...LOWEST AROUND DAWN. I WILL TIME ALL TERMINALS TO
DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 7Z TO 9Z. KCLT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 12Z TO 14Z...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO. RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
DAYLIGHT HOURS. RADAR TRENDS AND CAMS INDICATED THAT THE BEST CHC
FOR RA WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS KAVL TO HKY...BETWEEN 8Z TO 11Z.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE SW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KAVL WILL MAINTAIN A NNW
WIND...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85
CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND THUS RESTRICTIONS INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
10-16Z 16-22Z 22-04Z 04-06Z
KCLT HIGH 83% HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 89% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 72% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 83% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 83% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL STALL
NEAR THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. AFTER THE
LOW PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS
POSITIONED FROM BIRMINGHAM...RUNNING NE OVER THE INTERSECTION OF
AL/GA/TN...NORTH ACROSS E. TN. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TN...WITH A
PATCH OF RAIN TRACKING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC. HRRR RUNS
AT 5Z AND 6Z HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THE PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IS LIKELY PEAKING ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT AROUND DAY
BREAK...REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A FEW SHOWERS TRIGGER WITH AFTERNOON
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. A WIDER VIEW SHOWS LARGE BANDS OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GOM AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL.
GIVEN THE RECENT RADAR TRENDS...RUNS OF HRRR...AND LARGE SCALE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...I WILL LOWER POPS TO SCHC TO CHC OVER THE CWA
TODAY. THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE UNFAVORABLE...I WILL REMOVE
MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 70S EAST
OF THE MTNS.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS TO COASTAL AREAS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTH THE REGION WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD YIELD LIGHT NE WINDS BY LATE TONIGHT. I WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY WITH VARYING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50S EAST OF
I-85.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS TRICKY FOR
SATURDAY...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A CONTINUATION OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY. THE
OPERATIONAL NAM STILL DOES NOT TAKE THE FRONT AS FAR TO THE
EAST/SOUTH AS THE OTHER MODELS...SO WHEN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS
ON SATURDAY...THE OP-NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP. THIS
WOULD HAPPEN AT A TIME WHEN A SURFACE HIGH IS STILL IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO RESULT IN A CLASSIC WEDGE.
PRECIP WOULD NOT BE MUCH...BUT IT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO LOCK IN A COOL
AIR MASS...MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT FARTHER EAST...AND ARE NOT
NEARLY AS PRODUCTIVE WITH WEAK LIFT THAT BEGINS ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS RUNS...THE SREF SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS FAVORING
THE DRIER SOLUTION. PROBLEM IS...THE TREND ON THE GEFS IS FOR MORE
MEMBERS TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS RAISES THE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TEMP FCST...AND HAVE NUDGED THE HIGH TEMP DOWN A
BIT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE KEEPING THE POP FAIRLY LOW FOR THE
TIME BEING. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
PRODUCTIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO EXPECT
PRECIP TO BE DEVELOPING/SPREADING NE FROM GEORGIA AT DAYBREAK. THE
PRECIP PROB WILL ONLY INCREASE FROM THERE AS FORCING INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE REACH A MAXIMUM CENTERED AROUND 00Z MONDAY. FOR THE TIME
BEING...THE PRECIP PROB IS HELD IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY MAINLY BY
CONSENSUS WITH NEIGHBORS...BUT SUSPECT THIS WILL BE BUMPED UP TO
CATEGORICAL FOR SOME LENGTH OF TIME LATE SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
CARRIED OFF TO THE E/NE EARLY IN THE DAY. SO...PRECIP CHANCES
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE TN BORDER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO COME AROUND TO
W/NW BY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AFFORD A SIGNIFICANT REBOUND OF
TEMPS...BACK TO SOMETHING MORE THAN 5 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY IN-LINE WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST...SO FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. THE MODELS AGREE
THAT THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH UPPER
RIDGING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...SUPPORTING HIGH
PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...
PUSHING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THUS...
EXPECT WE WIL HAVE A TURN BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARMING TREND AFTER THAT. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF COMING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH A MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A FRONT LAYING OUT ON THE W SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 5Z INDICATED THAT
THE SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN TN AND NW GA...SLIDING
STEADILY EAST. SFC OBSERVATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SHOWED GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOW CLOUD HEIGHTS DESCENDING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...LOWEST AROUND DAWN. I WILL TIME ALL TERMINALS TO
DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 7Z TO 9Z. KCLT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 12Z TO 14Z...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO. RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
DAYLIGHT HOURS. RADAR TRENDS AND CAMS INDICATED THAT THE BEST CHC
FOR RA WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS KAVL TO HKY...BETWEEN 8Z TO 11Z.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE SW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KAVL WILL MAINTAIN A NNW
WIND...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85
CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND THUS RESTRICTIONS INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z
KCLT HIGH 87% HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 93% HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 77% HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 82% HIGH 89% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 95% HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 93% HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
109 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THIS FRONT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT FRIDAY...
AT 13Z (9 AM EDT)...A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST WEST OF LYH TO MTV
AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY WERE
DIMINISHING AS ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...CLEARING WAS OBSERVED ON VSBY
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF NC TO PORTIONS OF THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THIS CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE EXCEPT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD STILL KEEP
TEMPS COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE
TO FORECAST HIGHS.
DESPITE WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LURK IN
THE VIRGINIA SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT...WITH CAPES FORECAST TO
REACH 100-200 J/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AS ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR
AND RAP...WHICH BOTH HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT...KEPT CHC POPS IN THIS REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.
FRONT SLOWS UP JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS THAT MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER
EASTERN SECTIONS. ALSO FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTH/NE THIS EVENING AND
THEN SE ACROSS THE SW LATE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WEDGING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THINKING THAT WILL REMAIN DRY WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP SOUTHERN SECTIONS
SO TRENDING MORE PC EXCEPT CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH
COOLING TO GET LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY FROST HEADLINES IN FAR SW VA AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH A COOL NORTHEAST WIND TO START THIS
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND OVERRUNNING CIRRUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KEPT SATURDAY TEMPERATURES UNDER GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL LEVELS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND ALONG WITH
INCREASE LOW CLOUDS...WILL HAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD
IN THE 40S AND ABOVE GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY FOR TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE
DISPLAYING A SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE VA/NC COAST AND HAVE REMOVED
THE WEDGE FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THIS
REFLECTION AND PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA WILL
ENHANCE THIS WEDGE SUNDAY. FURTHERMORE...WITH NO PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE WEDGE...WE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE MET...WHICH IS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE MODELS.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNIFORM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE WEDGE
MAY ERODE SOME TOWARDS THE BLUEFIELD AND MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AREAS TO
POSSIBLE HIT 70F SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ADVANCE
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THE WEDGE OUT OF THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS BEGIN TO PHASE ON MONDAY
AS BOTH LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES MERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE WEDGE
BREAKS AND COLD AIR DOES NOT START MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TROF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ECMWF HAS A SHORT WAVE PUSHING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC WAS FAVORING THE TIMING AND MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY FOR RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AND INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COOLEST MORNING OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MVFR CIGS NOTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING
KBCB...KBLF...KLWB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THIS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MVFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AT 17Z (1 PM EDT)...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE NWS BLACKSBURG FORECAST
AREA...NEAR KDAN. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA...SO ONLY INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH IN THE
KDAN TAF.
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT
AND ON SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXTENT
OF THE CLOUD COVER AND HEIGHT...BUT INCLUDED VFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. FOR KBLF AND KLWB...UPSLOPE FLOW CLOUDS MAY RE-
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND IF THIS OCCURS...A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MAY GET STUCK WITHIN MVFR CIGS FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WEDGE SLOW TO EXIT.
THIS COULD BRING SUB-VFR TO MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ALLOWING LOWER
CIGS TO SCATTER OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LIKELY TO BRING A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR IN
LOW CIGS/SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BY
TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE AND
EVEN HIGHER WHERE SHOWERS PASS ACROSS. HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1/10 INCH IN MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 25 MPH EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PRECENT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PH
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS/RCS
AVIATION...JH/PH
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1003 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THIS FRONT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT FRIDAY...
AT 13Z (9 AM EDT)...A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST WEST OF LYH TO MTV
AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY WERE
DIMINISHING AS ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...CLEARING WAS OBSERVED ON VSBY
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF NC TO PORTIONS OF THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THIS CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE EXCEPT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD STILL KEEP
TEMPS COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE
TO FORECAST HIGHS.
DESPITE WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LURK IN
THE VIRGINIA SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT...WITH CAPES FORECAST TO
REACH 100-200 J/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AS ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR
AND RAP...WHICH BOTH HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT...KEPT CHC POPS IN THIS REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.
FRONT SLOWS UP JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS THAT MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER
EASTERN SECTIONS. ALSO FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTH/NE THIS EVENING AND
THEN SE ACROSS THE SW LATE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WEDGING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THINKING THAT WILL REMAIN DRY WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP SOUTHERN SECTIONS
SO TRENDING MORE PC EXCEPT CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH
COOLING TO GET LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY FROST HEADLINES IN FAR SW VA AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH A COOL NORTHEAST WIND TO START THIS
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND OVERRUNNING CIRRUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KEPT SATURDAY TEMPERATURES UNDER GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL LEVELS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND ALONG WITH
INCREASE LOW CLOUDS...WILL HAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD
IN THE 40S AND ABOVE GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY FOR TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE
DISPLAYING A SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE VA/NC COAST AND HAVE REMOVED
THE WEDGE FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THIS
REFLECTION AND PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA WILL
ENHANCE THIS WEDGE SUNDAY. FURTHERMORE...WITH NO PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE WEDGE...WE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE MET...WHICH IS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE MODELS.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNIFORM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE WEDGE
MAY ERODE SOME TOWARDS THE BLUEFIELD AND MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AREAS TO
POSSIBLE HIT 70F SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ADVANCE
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THE WEDGE OUT OF THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS BEGIN TO PHASE ON MONDAY
AS BOTH LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES MERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE WEDGE
BREAKS AND COLD AIR DOES NOT START MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TROF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ECMWF HAS A SHORT WAVE PUSHING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC WAS FAVORING THE TIMING AND MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY FOR RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AND INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COOLEST MORNING OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PATCHY SHOWERS HEAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE BLUE RIDGE
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SITES
THIS MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KBCB AND PERHAPS KROA. IN
ADDITION...A HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LINGERING FOG AROUND UNTIL MID
OR LATE MORNING. OTRW MAINTAINED SHORT PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT KDAN
AND KLYH BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF HRRR BUT LEFT MOSTLY VFR VSBYS
GIVEN LIGHT NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ESPCLY KBLF VICINITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LINGERING UPSLOPE MOISTURE THERE. COULD SEE
ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE KDAN-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY AS WELL BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEHIND THE LINE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT STILL SOME CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
WORK TO SLOWLY RETURN MOST SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BACK
TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF VFR
BACK TO MOST SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
HELPS SPILL MVFR CANOPY INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SW SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF RETURN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT APPEARS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BRING MVFR CIGS INTO
KBCB/KROA WITH KBLF PERHAPS STAYING MVFR WITHOUT REACHING VFR
LATER TODAY. THINK KLYH/KLWB HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING
SCATTERED OUT WHILE KDAN MAY STAY WITH VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT THIS
POINT.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MAY GET STUCK WITHIN MVFR CIGS FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WEDGE SLOW TO EXIT.
THIS COULD BRING SUB-VFR TO MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ALLOWING LOWER
CIGS TO SCATTER OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LIKELY TO BRING A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR IN
LOW CIGS/SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BY
TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE AND
EVEN HIGHER WHERE SHOWERS PASS ACROSS. HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1/10 INCH IN MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 25 MPH EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PRECENT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PH
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS/RCS
AVIATION...JH/JR/PH
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
706 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THIS FRONT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL PUSH EAST
CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE
CONTINUED TO DRY UP CROSSING THE RIDGES GIVEN DRY AIR AND NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW BANDS OR SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNRISE MAINLY WEST. MOST PRECIP SHOULD THEN FADE OUT LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE FRONT CROSSES PER LATEST HRRR WITH CLOUDS DECREASING
CENTRAL SECTIONS AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER MOISTURE
LIKELY TO LINGER OVER UPSLOPE WESTERN SECTIONS UNDER NW FLOW AND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE BOUNDARY CLEARS.
DESPITE THIS...STILL EXPECTING SOME SUN IN ALL SECTIONS LATER IN THE
DAY GIVEN HEATING AND DRY ADVECTION. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PIEDMONT IF THE FRONT SLOWS EVEN MORE TO POP ADDED
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SO INCLUDED LOW POPS THERE. OTRW CUT OUT POPS
ELSEWHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE LEANING ON THE SIDE OF THE WARMER
MAV MOS ESPCLY EAST GIVEN CURRENT WARM READINGS...AND IDEA THAT MOST
WEAK COOL ADVECTION WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTHWEST LATER ON.
FRONT SLOWS UP JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS THAT MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER
EASTERN SECTIONS. ALSO FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTH/NE THIS EVENING AND
THEN SE ACROSS THE SW LATE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WEDGING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THINKING THAT WILL REMAIN DRY WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP SOUTHERN SECTIONS
SO TRENDING MORE PC EXCEPT CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH
COOLING TO GET LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY FROST HEADLINES IN FAR SW VA AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH A COOL NORTHEAST WIND TO START THIS
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND OVERRUNNING CIRRUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KEPT SATURDAY TEMPERATURES UNDER GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL LEVELS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND ALONG WITH
INCREASE LOW CLOUDS...WILL HAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD
IN THE 40S AND ABOVE GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY FOR TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE
DISPLAYING A SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE VA/NC COAST AND HAVE REMOVED
THE WEDGE FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THIS
REFLECTION AND PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA WILL
ENHANCE THIS WEDGE SUNDAY. FURTHERMORE...WITH NO PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE WEDGE...WE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE MET...WHICH IS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE MODELS.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNIFORM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE WEDGE
MAY ERODE SOME TOWARDS THE BLUEFIELD AND MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AREAS TO
POSSIBLE HIT 70F SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ADVANCE
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THE WEDGE OUT OF THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS BEGIN TO PHASE ON MONDAY
AS BOTH LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES MERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE WEDGE
BREAKS AND COLD AIR DOES NOT START MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TROF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ECMWF HAS A SHORT WAVE PUSHING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC WAS FAVORING THE TIMING AND MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY FOR RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AND INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COOLEST MORNING OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PATCHY SHOWERS HEAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE BLUE RIDGE
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SITES
THIS MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KBCB AND PERHAPS KROA. IN
ADDITION...A HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LINGERING FOG AROUND UNTIL MID
OR LATE MORNING. OTRW MAINTAINED SHORT PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT KDAN
AND KLYH BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF HRRR BUT LEFT MOSTLY VFR VSBYS
GIVEN LIGHT NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ESPCLY KBLF VICINITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LINGERING UPSLOPE MOISTURE THERE. COULD SEE
ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE KDAN-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY AS WELL BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEHIND THE LINE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT STILL SOME CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
WORK TO SLOWLY RETURN MOST SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BACK
TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF VFR
BACK TO MOST SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
HELPS SPILL MVFR CANOPY INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SW SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF RETURN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT APPEARS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BRING MVFR CIGS INTO
KBCB/KROA WITH KBLF PERHAPS STAYING MVFR WITHOUT REACHING VFR
LATER TODAY. THINK KLYH/KLWB HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING
SCATTERED OUT WHILE KDAN MAY STAY WITH VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT THIS
POINT.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MAY GET STUCK WITHIN MVFR CIGS FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WEDGE SLOW TO EXIT.
THIS COULD BRING SUB-VFR TO MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ALLOWING LOWER
CIGS TO SCATTER OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LIKELY TO BRING A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR IN
LOW CIGS/SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BY
TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE AND
EVEN HIGHER WHERE SHOWERS PASS ACROSS. HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1/10 INCH IN MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS COULD AGAIN LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ONCE THE FRONT
CROSSES AND WINDS TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING TRAJECTORY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD ONLY BE 20 TO 25 MPH AT MOST
JUST IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...HUMIDITY COULD AGAIN DROP TO
AROUND 30 PERCENT IF NOT LOWER IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED.
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A BIT MORE
RAINFALL ALONG WITH COOLER CONDITIONS UNDER CLOUD COVER LONGER
WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE FIRE THREAT TO SOME DEGREE. THEREFORE
GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE TODAY...PLAN TO ONLY HEADLINE THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL LOW HUMIDITY...AND SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITHOUT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR NOW PENDING COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS/RCS
AVIATION...JH/JR/PH
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
344 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THIS FRONT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL PUSH EAST
CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE
CONTINUED TO DRY UP CROSSING THE RIDGES GIVEN DRY AIR AND NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW BANDS OR SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNRISE MAINLY WEST. MOST PRECIP SHOULD THEN FADE OUT LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE FRONT CROSSES PER LATEST HRRR WITH CLOUDS DECREASING
CENTRAL SECTIONS AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER MOISTURE
LIKELY TO LINGER OVER UPSLOPE WESTERN SECTIONS UNDER NW FLOW AND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE BOUNDARY CLEARS.
DESPITE THIS...STILL EXPECTING SOME SUN IN ALL SECTIONS LATER IN THE
DAY GIVEN HEATING AND DRY ADVECTION. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PIEDMONT IF THE FRONT SLOWS EVEN MORE TO POP ADDED
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SO INCLUDED LOW POPS THERE. OTRW CUT OUT POPS
ELSEWHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE LEANING ON THE SIDE OF THE WARMER
MAV MOS ESPCLY EAST GIVEN CURRENT WARM READINGS...AND IDEA THAT MOST
WEAK COOL ADVECTION WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTHWEST LATER ON.
FRONT SLOWS UP JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS THAT MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER
EASTERN SECTIONS. ALSO FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTH/NE THIS EVENING AND
THEN SE ACROSS THE SW LATE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WEDGING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THINKING THAT WILL REMAIN DRY WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP SOUTHERN SECTIONS
SO TRENDING MORE PC EXCEPT CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH
COOLING TO GET LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY FROST HEADLINES IN FAR SW VA AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH A COOL NORTHEAST WIND TO START THIS
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND OVERRUNNING CIRRUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KEPT SATURDAY TEMPERATURES UNDER GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL LEVELS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND ALONG WITH
INCREASE LOW CLOUDS...WILL HAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD
IN THE 40S AND ABOVE GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY FOR TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE
DISPLAYING A SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE VA/NC COAST AND HAVE REMOVED
THE WEDGE FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THIS
REFLECTION AND PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA WILL
ENHANCE THIS WEDGE SUNDAY. FURTHERMORE...WITH NO PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE WEDGE...WE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE MET...WHICH IS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE MODELS.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNIFORM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE WEDGE
MAY ERODE SOME TOWARDS THE BLUEFIELD AND MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AREAS TO
POSSIBLE HIT 70F SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ADVANCE
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THE WEDGE OUT OF THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS BEGIN TO PHASE ON MONDAY
AS BOTH LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES MERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE WEDGE
BREAKS AND COLD AIR DOES NOT START MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TROF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ECMWF HAS A SHORT WAVE PUSHING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC WAS FAVORING THE TIMING AND MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY FOR RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AND INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COOLEST MORNING OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1237 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER AS MOISTURE INCREASES
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER
APPEARS GIVEN LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE THAT MOST CIGS WILL STAY VFR
UNTIL LATE WHEN LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VA FALL INTO MVFR
OR WORSE BY DAYBREAK. WHILE LOCATIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP THE CERTAINTY DECREASES BEYOND THE BLUE
RIDGE. MAINTAINED SHORT PERIOD OF PRECIP AT KDAN AND KLYH BASED
ON LATEST RUN OF HRRR BUT LEFT MOSTLY VFR VSBYS GIVEN LIGHT NATURE
TO ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND THOSE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN
MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LINGERING UPSLOPE MOISTURE
THERE. COULD SEE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE KDAN-
KLYH CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEHIND THE LINE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT STILL SOME CHANCE FOR GUSTS TOM0RROW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD WORK TO
SLOWLY RETURN MOST SITES WITH LOW CIGS BACK TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD BRING A THREAT FOR SUB-VFR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY. WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
LIGHT AND PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE AND
EVEN HIGHER WHERE SHOWERS PASS ACROSS. HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1/10 INCH IN MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS COULD AGAIN LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ONCE THE FRONT
CROSSES AND WINDS TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING TRAJECTORY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD ONLY BE 20 TO 25 MPH AT MOST
JUST IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...HUMIDITY COULD AGAIN DROP TO
AROUND 30 PERCENT IF NOT LOWER IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED.
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A BIT MORE
RAINFALL ALONG WITH COOLER CONDITIONS UNDER CLOUD COVER LONGER
WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE FIRE THREAT TO SOME DEGREE. THEREFORE
GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE TODAY...PLAN TO ONLY HEADLINE THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL LOW HUMIDITY...AND SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITHOUT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR NOW PENDING COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/JR/PH
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
100 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THIS FRONT
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...
RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING THE HRRR QUITE WELL...WHICH
SHOWS A CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND OF THE FRONTAL ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. THE FIRST
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BEFORE EVEN
REACHING THE I-77 CORRIDOR WITH REALLY NO THUNDER MAKING IT MUCH
PAST MIDDLE TN WITH THAT ACTIVITY. TWO OTHER NARROW LINES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FORMED ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT BACK
IN EASTERN KY LIFTING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...ALSO PER HRRR. BOTH
THE HRRR AND NCEP WRF SHOW VERY LITTLE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT
THE RNK CWA. A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP IN THE
GSP/CLT AREA AND TRANSLATE NORTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHICH MAY BE THE ONLY WAY PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO
THAT PART OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SIGNS...HOWEVER...THAT THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY HANG UP SOME ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST AND THE BEST SUPPORT LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS COULD DELAY CLEARING AND PERHAPS EVEN RESULT IN
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE PIEDMONT AS LATE AS EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES TO POPS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN...HAVE GREATLY REDUCED POPS AND QPF
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
HOLDING TOGETHER PER MESO-MODEL RUNS IS LOW AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS DEFINITELY SUPPORT LESS POPS/QPF AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURE IS BASICALLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY RUNNING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED...SO MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE INCREASED
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT...WILL REDUCE THE FIRE
DANGER THREAT SO THAT NO HEADLINES PERTAINING TO FIRE WEATHER ARE
NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO NOT PUSH THE
COOLER AIR MASS COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT VERY FAR SOUTH AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUITE A BIT.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT AND MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WEDGES DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY WHICH BRINGS THE WINDS AROUND
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE. SATURDAYS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER MAXIMUMS...SIMILAR TO THE
MET GUIDANCE.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE AFTER 00Z MON/7PM SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TROF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ECMWF BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE LOW
TRACKS TOWARD NEW JERSEY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC WAS FAVORING THE
TIMING AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE HIGH MOVES
FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY FOR RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF AND INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE BETTER
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1237 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER AS MOISTURE INCREASES
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER
APPEARS GIVEN LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE THAT MOST CIGS WILL STAY VFR
UNTIL LATE WHEN LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VA FALL INTO MVFR
OR WORSE BY DAYBREAK. WHILE LOCATIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP THE CERTAINTY DECREASES BEYOND THE BLUE
RIDGE. MAINTAINED SHORT PERIOD OF PRECIP AT KDAN AND KLYH BASED
ON LATEST RUN OF HRRR BUT LEFT MOSTLY VFR VSBYS GIVEN LIGHT NATURE
TO ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND THOSE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN
MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LINGERING UPSLOPE MOISTURE
THERE. COULD SEE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE KDAN-
KLYH CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEHIND THE LINE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT STILL SOME CHANCE FOR GUSTS TOM0RROW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD WORK TO
SLOWLY RETURN MOST SITES WITH LOW CIGS BACK TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD BRING A THREAT FOR SUB-VFR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY. WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
LIGHT AND PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...
RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 800 PM. ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1/4
INCH...PERHAPS EVEN LESS THAN 1/10 INCH IN MOST AREAS...CLOUD
COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WIND COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE BEHIND
THE FRONT. SO WHILE A HEADLINE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...THE PROBABILITY FOR SUCH IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...PH/RAB
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/JR/PH
FIRE WEATHER...PM
AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
548 AM PDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow showers can be expected today over the for eastern
third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Conditions will dry
out on Saturday, but it looks to be short-lived as another front
brings more precipitation by early Sunday morning and into
Monday. A return to dry weather can be expected by middle of next
week with warming temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...Unstable northwest flow has become established
over the region as upper level heights build over the Gulf of
Alaska and a strong northwesterly upper level jet has drifted
into the western part of Washington. This leaves the entire
forecast area on the cold and unstable side of the jet, at least
for the morning. Meanwhile the latest water vapor imagery was
detecting a shortwave trough dropping southeast from around
Kelowna BC. This feature was well handled by the short-range
models all which take it into central Washington by late morning
and then into east-central Oregon by afternoon. Deep ascent ahead
of the feature looks quite favorable resulting in a blossoming of
shower activity through the morning. The atmosphere near the
Cascades is not as favorable to ascent due to shallower
instability and some downslope flow in the lee of the crest. So we
expect most of the showers to occur over the eastern third of
Washington and much of the Panhandle. Northwest flow through the
850-700 mb layer is generally conducive to the best shower
activity over the southern Idaho Panhandle, including the
Clearwater Mountains and Camas Prairie, as well as over the Blue
Mountains in SE Washington. The current batch of winter weather
advisories for the Camas Prairie and central Panhandle Mountains
looks plausible and will allow to continue. Based on the
potential instability combined with the deep ascent some of the
showers could get rather intense however they should be rapid
movers thus preventing widespread significant snow from
occurring. Nonetheless training of showers could occur over these
areas and it wouldn`t be terribly surprising to get a few reports
in excess of three inches over the Camas Prairie and a bit more
over the mountains. Currently the winter weather advisory for snow
is through 11am which is when we will see the best lifting ahead
of the shortwave trough, however if the HRRR is correct we will
see the shower threat continuing into the afternoon, with snow
levels still low enough to bring snow to much of the Camas Prairie
and the central Panhandle Mountains. For tonight the activity will
taper off fairly rapidly as the shortwave departs the region and
is replaced by the offshore ridge.
Saturday and Saturday night...Saturday will be a dry day across
the entire forecast area care of the upper level ridge. However
its drying presence won`t last long as the next moist occluded front
moves into the region. This front is moving slightly faster than
previously forecast and will likely nudge into the Cascades late
in the evening and then push toward the Washington- Idaho border
toward morning. This system will have quite a bit more moisture
than the current system and should bring some light precipitation
to much of central Washington. The precipitation type could be
difficult to determine depending on how quickly it arrives. The
later or slower it arrives the better chances we will see for
snow falling in the valleys. For now we are guessing there won`t
be much cooling based increasing cloud cover during the late
afternoon and evening. However if that notion changes we will need
to lower snow levels lower than the 2500-3000 feet we forecast for
the Methow Valley, Okanogan Valley and Republic area.
Precipitation amounts are too light to consider any winter
highlights at this time. fx
Sunday and Monday: Upper level trough dropping out of the Gulf of
Alaska will impact the region on Sunday. Models have trended a bit
faster for the onset of precipitation. By morning valley rain and
mountain snow will already be moving into eastern WA and north ID.
Snow levels will be 3000-4000 ft with accumulations expected at
Stevens and Lookout Pass. Stevens could see several inches of snow
with Lookout seeing 1-2 inches possible. Winds will increase from
the southwest after the front passes through Sunday afternoon.
Precipitation will quickly move out of the area by late
afternoon/early evening. Sunday night and Monday showers will be
possible as the low sits over the region.
Tuesday through Friday: The cutoff low moves south into Nevada as
the ridge builds builds off the west coast. The ridge will then
flop over across the Pac NW and provide north to northeasterly
flow through Wednesday. This will keep the winds elevated in the
10-20 mph range with occasional gusts to 30 mph. We dry out and
daytime temperatures Tue/Wed will be near average and by Thur/Fri
they will be above average. Overnight lows will be around average
for this time of the year. /Nisbet
&&
.AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected to generally
prevail at all taf sites through this forecast period. The main
weather of consequence will revolve around compact upper level
disturbance currently moving into extreme NE Washington. Showers
already beginning to develop ahead of this system over the eastern
third of WA and much of the ID Panhandle and should continue to
expand through the morning. Since this isn`t a real moist system we
expect ceiling heights to remain in the VFR category, however brief
MVFR cigs are possible especially for GEG SFF COE and PUW. The
disturbance is forecast to drop into OR by afternoon, however
residual instability will keep the threat of showers going through
the afternoon. Drier weather and clearing skies will return to all
sites overnight. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 49 33 52 35 48 32 / 20 0 0 20 90 20
Coeur d`Alene 48 32 51 33 47 31 / 30 10 0 20 90 30
Pullman 46 32 52 34 48 31 / 70 0 0 20 80 20
Lewiston 52 34 57 38 54 35 / 60 0 0 20 60 20
Colville 55 31 55 32 50 31 / 20 0 0 20 80 20
Sandpoint 48 31 49 31 46 32 / 40 10 0 10 90 30
Kellogg 44 30 47 30 43 30 / 70 10 0 10 90 40
Moses Lake 58 33 59 37 56 32 / 10 0 0 40 40 0
Wenatchee 56 34 59 37 53 35 / 10 0 0 50 30 10
Omak 58 33 57 35 52 34 / 10 0 0 60 80 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...THE COMBINATION OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUNDS COULD SUPPORT LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED. RAP/H3R ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASSENT. POPS WILL BE
REALIGNED TO THIS THINKING WITH GRIDDED POPS MAXING OUT AT 40-50
PERCENT AT THE COAST WITH 30 PERCENT INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.
TODAY...MORE WET WEATHER WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS THE REGION REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN
A WARM/MOIST WARM SECTOR BENEATH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. A
NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. IT IS PROVING
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
SETUP IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND INDEED
THERE MAY BE SEVERAL CONCENTRATED AREAS THAT GRADUALLY EVOLVE
OVER TIME. ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY IN ANY ONE
AREA...IT DOES APPEAR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE THROUGH.
CATEGORICAL POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT IS ORDER FOR ALL AREAS FOR THIS
REASON.
THE HEAVIEST RAINS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS
THIS IS WHEN MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PEAK BENEATH A RIBBON
OF PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES AND A CORRIDOR OF BROAD 250 HPA
DIFLUENCE. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING LOOKS FAIRLY LOW
ATTM...UNLESS TRAINING OF DEEP CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...SO THERE
ARE NO PLANS FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S DESPITE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN LATER TODAY.
MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY
MID-LATE MORNING...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS AS THEY DID YESTERDAY. THERE
IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF TSTMS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSTMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY BEING DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES GENERATED EARLIER ACTIVITY AND SOME UPPER FORCING
INDUCED BY PASSING MID-LEVEL IMPULSES. THE AXIS OF RAIN WILL
STEADILY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND
WITH LOWER- MID 60S AT THE COAST.
MONDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES WHILE THE MID TO UPPER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA BECOMES ZONAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME DOWNSLOPING...OFF OF THE
APPALACHIANS...AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS HINT AT SOME REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA SO
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE AREA. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING/DOWNSLOPING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY...COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE A RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR
REGION. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD...INTO THE ATLANTIC...WHILE A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD DAMPEN TEMPERATURE RISES.
HOWEVER...IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR THEY MOVE IN
LATER THAN EXPECTED...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE U.S. WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT
STRETCHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IT TAPS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WENT WITH A BLEND THAT KEEPS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT BOTH TERMINALS...
BUT LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST. SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 09-10Z AS COASTAL SHOWERS
BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THE RISK FOR TSTMS PRIOR TO SUNRISE LOOKS LOW.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA. THE GREATER RISK FOR TSTMS WILL BE AT
KSAV WHERE INSTABILITY WILL THE HIGHEST. LOOKS FOR GENERALLY MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS IN THE RAIN...ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF IFR OR LOWER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS OCCUR. WILL LIMIT CONDITIONS TO
MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT WILL PREVAIL
WITH THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VSBYS
TO LESS THAN 1 NM AT TIMES AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME TSTMS
DEVELOP. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY END
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. SOME LOW-LEVEL JETTING COULD
ENHANCE THE WIND FIELD A BIT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 30 NM FROM SHORE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT
OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE AND CHARLESTON COUNTY LEGS. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SW FLOW WILL RAMP UP MONDAY BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 15 KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BUT MODELS STILL NEED
TO COME TOGETHER FOR TIMING THE SURGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE PINCHED GRADIENTS. DURING THIS TIME WINDS AND SEAS
WILL UNDERGO A NOTICEABLE UPTICK. WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE
TRANQUIL. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/MS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1235 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...
247 PM CDT
THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL FOCUS ON THE RAIN
SHOWER TIMING ON SUNDAY.
IT HAS BEEN A FAIRLY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MAINLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. A LAKE BREEZE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INLAND ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...WITH A EASTERLY WIND SHIFT OF COOLER LAKE
MODIFIED AIR IN ITS WAKE. OTHERWISE...HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A WEATHER DISTURBANCES SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DECENT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
COLORADO. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND THIS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
COLD FRONT...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THEREFORE...WE HAVE
PUSHED OFF THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION...UNTIL LATE MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NOT UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...THEN INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA BY MID
AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE THREAT OF THUNDER LOOKS VERY LOW WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT NORTHWARDS FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH NORTHEASTERN INDIANA. WHILE IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD OCCUR...IT APPEARS THEY WOULD BE
CONFINED TO MY FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA...AND AS A RESULT HAVE CONTINUED
TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.
WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION...IT ALSO
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES COULD WARM NICELY OVER WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
BEING FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WITH 925 MB
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO REACH 11C OVER MY SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES COULD STILL GET INTO THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 IN AND AROUND THE CHICAGO METRO AREA BEFORE THE RAIN
AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GOOD MORNING WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
300 PM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AFTER A QUIET FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...THE REMAINDER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND LOOK ACTIVE WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON OR
NEAR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
BEHIND THIS STEERING IN STRONGLY ANOMALOUS COLD AIR.
THE FORCING FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY EVENING WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST. AS NOTED IN THE SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA INCLUDING IN THE
EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE WAVE IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND WITH GOOD
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SO CLOUDS SHOULD MAINLY CLEAR BY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A
WELL-DEFINED LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING IN NEAR-LAKE LOCATIONS. LOCAL CLIMO WOULD SAY ABOUT A
7-10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM LAKESIDE AREAS TO WELL
INLAND. LESS LAKE COOLING IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHEAST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN MANY INLAND LOCATIONS.
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WAVE DURING MIDWEEK. WITH NEARLY TWO FULL DAYS OF MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN EXCESS OF
1.15 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER 55 ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON/NEAR WEDNESDAY. QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY
HAS EXISTED AND STILL DOES WITH THE LOW MAGNITUDE AND TIMING.
WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A SLOWER EC SOLUTION AS CONTINUED BY
TODAYS 12Z GUIDANCE GIVEN THE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM BEING CLOSED
AT FIRST. WHILE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP INCLUDING STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN SUCH A PATTERN...THE UPPER AND LOW-LEVEL JET
PLACEMENTS AND STRONGEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WOULD
FAVOR RAIN AND PROBABLY SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT...THIS WOULD BE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE SEASON...FOR SEVERE STORMS. BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
ON TIMING AS WELL AS STRENGTH OF THE LOW...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
THAT SYSTEM IS THE FIRST OF A FEW EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET TAKES A SUBSTANTIAL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL U.S AS WE ROLL
INTO APRIL. THIS HAS BEEN GENERALLY FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS
OVER THE PAST WEEK...WITH NOT SURPRISINGLY DIFFERENCES ON JUST
HOW COLD IT WOULD GET. LOOKING AT IT FROM AN ENSEMBLE PERSPECTIVE
THOUGH...FAIRLY PRONOUNCED ANOMALIES FOR BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWING UP IN THE NAEFS...IN FACT INTO THE LOWEST
PERCENTILE FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ON NEXT
SUNDAY. THIS IS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST BUT IF IT WERE TO
PAN OUT...COULD HAVE HIGHS NEXT SUNDAY OR SO STRUGGLING TO REACH
30 DEGREES /WHICH WOULD BE AT RECORD LOW MAX TERRITORY/.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT EXCEPT
FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT GYY. OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY
DETEORIORATING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR AND RAIN DEVELPING FROM THE WEST. RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE MIDDAY
IN RFD AREA AND MID-LATE AFTERNOON CHICAGO TERMINALS. RAIN SHOULD
END FROM THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LOCKING IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS...OPTED TO HANG ONTO MVFR CIGS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
227 PM CDT
AFTER FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. WITH
THE LOW DEEPENING TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE...A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE LAKE SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN
LOOKS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF INTO THE FIRST PART OF APRIL. WHILE
THERE IS LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN MAGNITUDE OF A MIDWEEK
LOW...ONE OF SUB 1000 MB IS LIKELY TO TAKE A NORTHEAST PATH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THAT TIME. OF PROBABLY MORE NOTE IS
A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A BUCKLE IN THE JET STREAM WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND A DEEP LOW...OR TWO...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE FIRST WEEKEND OF APRIL. IN TERMS OF ANOMALIES...THIS IS
FAIRLY GOOD SIGNAL FOR A WEEK OUT FOR AT LEAST A GALE EVENT.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1155 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
A cold front currently moving east across Iowa will progress
across Illinois tomorrow. A narrow corridor of isentropic lift
across NW Illinois will continue to keep mid-clouds across our NW
counties the rest of the night. Based on the amount of dry air
below 700 mb in the 00z ILX sounding, it appears little to no
measurable rain will occur in our counties before sunrise. The
latest updates from the HRRR and RAP delay rainfall even longer
than that. The HRRR shows rain first affecting our areas NW of
the IL river around 15z, while the RAP delays any rain in our
counties until after 18z. That seems a little extreme based on the
forecast soundings and projected lift that will increase Easter
Sunday morning. Have reduced PoPs the rest of the night, and
slowed down the development and advance of rain across IL
tomorrow. The evening update from SPC keeps our eastern counties
in a Marginal outlook for severe storms tomorrow, as the cold
front picks up speed tomorrow afternoon. Will keep isolated
thunder in the afternoon forecast southeast of Taylorville to
Paris.
Main changes this evening were to PoP and weather grids, with
minor updates to temp, dewpoint, and sky. Overnight lows look on
track for low to mid 40s. The updated info is already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
Another quiet and mild night in store for Central Illinois.
Southeasterly winds ahead of the approaching precipitation for
tomorrow morning as well. Clouds will slowly increase after
midnight. Frontal boundary moving closer as well as increasing
cloud cover...cannot rule out some sct showers NW of the Illinois
River Valley, but chances are very low. Overnight lows should be in
the low to mid 40s before the onset of tomorrows rain.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
The weather system coming into the area tomorrow remains the focus
of this forecast. Models have come into better agreement as GFS is
now slower, like the NAM and ECMWF. With better agreement,
confidence has been raised, so pops have been increased for tomorrow
with high pops in the west during the late morning, followed by high
pops elsewhere during the early afternoon. Most models keep this
system as an open wave so pcpn should move east and out of the area
quicker than what the NAM is showing. So, by Sunday evening, there
will be only a chance of pcpn in the eastern parts of the CWA. By
midnight, the whole area should be dry. With the track of this wave
being across southern Illinois, believe should be sufficient
dynamics and instability for some isolated thunderstorms to be
possible tomorrow afternoon, then push east Sunday evening. So will
be keeping the isold t-storms over part of the CWA in the forecast
for the afternoon. Once this system moves through, dry weather is
expected for the beginning of next week.
Another weather system is still forecast by the models to move
through the area during the middle of the week. With models showing
a tad bit more consistency, have agreed with the likely pops for Wed
night. This system should also have sufficient dynamics for some
thunderstorms to be possible, so will have isolated thunderstorms
for Wed and Wed night. Models indicating pcpn slowly exiting the
area with this system, so chance pops will remain through Thur
night. Then dry weather remainder of the week.
Temps should get quite warm tomorrow, but then cool some for Monday,
after the system moves through. Warmer temps expected again next
week ahead of the mid week system with some cooling after that one
as well for the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
All the short term models have slowed down the onset of precip,
but still show a band of rain moving across IL tomorrow. Mid
level isentropic lift will increase in the morning, helping precip
develop ahead of the cold front. A dry sub-cloud layer will slow
down precip development as well, but saturation should eventually
occur from west to east starting later Sunday morning. Based on
the latest models, steadier rains look to start around 17z at
PIA, with prevailing rain advancing east to near CMI by 23z/6pm.
Rain chances diminish from west to east late Sunday afternoon and
Sunday evening.
MVFR cloud cover should develop by 16z at PIA and advance to CMI
by 20z, with MVFR prevailing for the remainder of the forecast
period.
Winds will start out southeast the rest of tonight, then become
south by 15-17z. A cold FROPA will create a wind shift to the
west then northwest Sunday afternoon. Wind speeds will increase
to 10-16kt during the afternoon and evening from the W-NW.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY 27/12Z. ALSO...A
CHANCE OF BR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS AT KLFK AND MAYBE AS
FAR NORTH AS KTYR/KGGG LEAVING BEHIND POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON BR AT KTYR/KGGG...SO DECIDED TO
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD COVER...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL INCREASE OVER NE LOUISIANA AT KMLU
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 27/15Z. RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 27/21Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. /20/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016/
DISCUSSION...
DENSE CIRRUS HAS SPREAD NNE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH SRN CO INTO NM.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SE
TX/EXTREME SRN LA...AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NNW INTO DEEP E
TX/CNTRL LA OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FG
DEVELOPMENT LATE EVEN BENEATH THE CIRRUS SHEILD OVER SE TX...WHICH
MAY AFFECT THE FAR SW SECTIONS OF DEEP E TX. THE 00Z NAM REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS 18Z PREDECESSOR WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE
ADVECTION SPREADING NE INTO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY/CNTRL
LA LATE...AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ALSO SUGGEST ISOLATED
CONVECTION AFFECTING THESE AREAS AS WELL JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THUS HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER W LATE TONIGHT
TO SABINE COUNTY TX AND ENCOMPASSING THE SRN/EXTREME ERN PARISHES OF
NCNTRL LA. THE DENSE CIRRUS IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A LID ON MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...WITH THE SRN ZONES LIKELY NOT BUDGING MUCH BELOW 60
DEGREES. HAVE BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SCT CONVECTION INCREASING AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
SRN/ERN ZONES. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION SHORT AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH THE H850 FLOW QUICKLY VEERING W AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ANY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MINIMIZED...WITH THE
ALREADY SHALLOW MOISTURE COLUMN DRYING OUT THAT MUCH FASTER DURING
THE DAY AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY ENTRAINS E BY AFTERNOON. HENCE...THE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND VERY FEW
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED. ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS
WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 57 76 45 71 / 10 20 0 0
MLU 56 78 47 68 / 10 40 10 0
DEQ 49 64 37 69 / 10 30 0 0
TXK 55 69 42 68 / 10 20 0 0
ELD 53 74 43 68 / 10 30 0 0
TYR 57 67 43 71 / 10 20 0 0
GGG 56 70 43 70 / 10 20 0 0
LFK 59 76 47 73 / 10 30 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1213 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHG THRU THE REST OF THE NGT IS FCST HRLY
TEMPS BASED ON LATEST 11PM-MDNGT SFC OBS. OTHERWISE...MVFR SC CLGS
CURRENTLY AS FAR NE AS KRKD IS YET TO GET INTO SIG PTNS OF COASTAL
HANCOCK COUNTY BASED ON LATEST METER OBS FROM KBHB.
ORGNL DISC: CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS AND FOG OR DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL.
SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR THIS EVENING AND THEN MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POTENTIAL SOME LLVL MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION LATER TONIGHT W/SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING. BLYR WINDS GO
SE WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT IS MORE SSW WHICH IS A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS
TO TAKE PLACE. BUFKIT DATA ALSO SHOWING FOG OR DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
W/THE HRRR 3KM AND WRF SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS. AFTER FURTHER
COLLABORATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO CARRY PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT
AFTER SUNSET W/DRIER AIR IN PLACE AS READINGS WILL BE DOWN TO MID
TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CAP A FURTHER DROP IN THE TEMPS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL HANG ON FOR A WHILE DURING THE MORNING ON
EASTER SUNDAY AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST THE COAST AS SSE WINDS PICK
UP TO AROUND 10 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO CUT DOWN ON TEMPS RISING DUE
TO THE FLOW OFF THE COLDER GULF OF MAINE WATERS. AS A MATTER OF
FACT, NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE A TAD WARMER ESPECIALLY IF SOME SUN
APPEARS. ALL THIS DESPITE SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO HANG ON TO CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
ANOTHER INTERESTING THING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE TO SET UP
LATE IN THE DAY AS EVIDENT FROM THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT
PROFILES. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION AIDING IN THE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE
DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SITUATED. CARRIED PATCHY WORDING FOR
NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
FIRST CONCERN BEFORE THE STORM REALLY MOVES IN IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. LOOKS JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH MANY
AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE, BUT THE MOISTURE NOT
BEING DEEP ENOUGH TO TAP A LEVEL COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL
FORMATION.
THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARD A POTENT SYSTEM BEGINNING MONDAY.
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH THE STORM. MAIN ISSUE IS HOW
FAST THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER SHIFTS FROM BEING THE ONE WEST OF
QUEBEC CITY TO THE ONE IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FASTER THE
TRANSFER OF ENERGY OCCURS, THE QUICKER OUR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.
GFS HAS BEEN SLOWER ON THE TRANSFER, ALTHOUGH ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SEEM TO BE FASTER ON THE TRANSFER. ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND
NAM ARE A BIT FASTER ON THE TRANSFER, AND I TEND TO FAVOR A
FASTER TRANSFER OF ENERGY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A FASTER
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MONDAY EVENING.
BEST GUESS FORECAST AT THIS TIME IS FOR MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH EXTREME NORTHERN MAINE MAY MIX AT TIMES. THEN
A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY TO SNOW MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
MAINE MONDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDY AND COLDER TUESDAY. FIRST GUESS AT SNOW AMOUNTS IS FOR 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE NORTH, THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS THE FURTHER NORTH YOU
GO. THESE AMOUNTS ARE OF COURSE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...MUCH
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH COOLER...
THEREFORE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. SATURDAY
IS FORECAST TO BE CLOUDY...COOLER WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GIVING WAY TO LOW MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR CIGS
AND VSBYS, ESPECIALLY OVR NORTHERN TERMINALS AS FOG DVLPS. THE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD HANG ON THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING THEN
BECOME VFR BY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. WIDESPREAD IFR CONTINUING MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
ENTIRE AREA, GENERALLY FALLING AS RAIN MONDAY THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT WINDY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA CANCELLED W/WINDS AND SEAS DOWN TO 15 KTS AND 4 FT
RESPECTIVELY. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD RIGHT INTO EASTER
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: PERHAPS SOME MIN LEVEL SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS LATE
MONDAY. STRONGER OFFSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...FOISY
MARINE...FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
144 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA AND OFF THE COAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ATLANTIC CANADA/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST, WHICH NUDGES BACK INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WITH A MOIST FRONTAL BAND BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS FROM THE EAST CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
NOTING SOME AREAS OF LGT TO MODERATE RAIN BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL NC, AND AS THE 300K THETA SURFACE BUCKLES
NNE INTO THE LOCAL AREA, EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE AREA AS BETTER SLUG OF LIFT PUSHES NORTH. HAVE PUSHED
BACK ONSET OF POPS SLIGHTLY PER RADAR TRENDS. HRRR NOW SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING, DEPICTING AREAS OF RAIN MOVING INTO
SERN PORTIONS LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFTING TOWARD THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER INLAND, HI-RES MODELS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER THIN LOW LEVEL LAYER BECOMING SATURATED IN
PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW...WHICH SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE OVER INLAND
SECTIONS. MAINLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S FAR N...TO
MID/UPPER 40S FOR CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR EASTER SUNDAY...MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A CLOUDY AND COOL DAY
ALTHOUGH FORCING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...AND THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT THAT THE LOW
LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED SUN MORNING, WITH CONTINUED AREAS OF
DRIZZLE EXPECTED IN PERSISTENT ENE FLOW, THOUGH ANY LIGHT RAIN
MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH MIDDAY. AS THE
FRONT LIFTS N IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...FORCING WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTN THOUGH
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING.
FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN THE MID-UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME LOWER 60S ACRS INTERIOR NE NC AND S-CENTRAL VA.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
THUNDER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE
PORTIONS GIVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONTINUED TO SPEED-UP THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT PER 12Z/26 GFS/ECMWF WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS/SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING (MAINLY E)...WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY BY AFTN. THE BEST CAA SHOULD WAIT
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY INITIAL CAA MONDAY AFTN OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING. HAVE NUDGED HIGHS UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST OF THE ERN SHORE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S...AND RISE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS DRY AS UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA TUES NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS AS THE RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WEDS (COMPARED TO TUES)...GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MILD WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S THANKS TO SLY FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUDS. FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY THU. ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE STILL REMAINS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN CONUS. THE TREND
AS OF LATE IS TO LEAN TOWARD THE QUICKER GFS...BUT THE ECMWF
TYPICALLY HANDLES BLOCKY FLOW BETTER. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH
PERSISTENT AND MAINTAIN A TREND TOWARD THE GFS/GEFS. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO SE CANADA. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE EXPECTED THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON LIMITED DYNAMICS AND A LACK OF A GOOD TAP OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT HIGH END CHANCE
POPS. HIGHS THURS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH A BREEZY SLY WIND. MILD
AGAIN THURS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FRI (BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST) AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS FRI BACK IN THE LOW/MID 70S. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
SAT AND SAT NIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLC REGION WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
NE/E FLOW. VFR CURRENTLY AT KRIC/KSBY...WITH MVFR AT KORF/KPHF...AND
IFR CEILINGS AT KECG. EXPECT CONDS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR THROUGH
09Z...AS CEILINGS CONT TO LOWER. SOME RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED
MAINLY KPHF/KORF/KECG OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AREA. OTHERWISE...MAINLY IFR CONDS PREVAILING THRU MUCH OF
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN PERSISTS...AND
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURES ALOFT MOVE THROUGH AREA. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION EARLY MON...WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING SHOULD ALLOW AVIATION
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 18Z MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY
SW/W WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES
OFF THE NE COAST. SPEEDS AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY PUSH SEAS TO A SOLID 4 FT. THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FLOW BRIEFLY
BECOMES SLY SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION MON AFTERNOON. FLOW BECOMES NWLY MON
AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TUES MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUES AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS WITH SLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
WATER. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURS AS THE GRADIENT RAMPS
UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS
NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/WRS
MARINE...SAM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
433 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...CDB
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
331 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of frontogenetically-driven rain will slowly slide
southeastward through the early morning hours reaching portions of
central and northeastern Missouri by mid/late morning and to the St.
Louis metro area by early afternoon. The timing of this area of
rain is several hours slower than previous forecast due to slower
fropa through the CWA.
The slower passage of the cold front will also allow temperatures to
warmup more than previously expected with a tight temperature
gradient from northwest to southeast. Across northwestern sections
of the area...highs will only be in the 40s due to copious amounts
of cloud cover and rainfall. However...for portions of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois...am expecting highs to near 70
degrees as fropa is not expected there until late afternoon. For
these areas...enough instability will likely materialize for
isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Could be an isolated strong/severe storm or two but
better chances further southeast of CWA.
Will be a lingering threat of light rain for portions of south-
central Illinois early this evening but conditions should quickly
dry out. Cloud cover will decrease overnight tonight as well.
Combine that with winds diminishing with approach of sfc
ridge...could be a good setup for radiational cooling and frost
development late tonight. Forecast lows tonight generally west of
the Mississippi River are expected to be in the 30-35 degree range
so a light freeze is possible. Will hold off on any headlines for
now and let dayshift decipher which (if any) frost/freeze headlines
are warranted. Timing of clearing skies and sfc ridge will be the
key factors.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Surface ridge will be over region Monday with dry and warmer
weather for the first part of the work week. By Tuesday surface
ridge will be to our east, so winds will be out of the south with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, low level moisture will be on the increase ahead of
next weather system. So showers and a few thunderstorms to develop
and spread northward across the area on Wednesday. The best chances
of precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening as
strong cold front slides through region. Some differences in timing
among the extended models, so kept low chance mention through
Thursday, before tapering off.
As for temperatures, Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Then colder air to filter in with highs
near normal by Friday, in the 50s.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
A cold front extending from a surface low over northwestern IA
south to near COU, then southwest through JLN will move slowly
southeastward through the taf sites late tonight and Sunday.
Showers are expected to move into UIN and COU Sunday morning and
into the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon ahead of an upper
level disturbance which will move east-northeastward through MO
Sunday afternoon and induce a weak surface wave along the cold
front. Low level clouds will advect into UIN and COU late tonight
and into the St Louis metro area Sunday morning. The ceiling
height will drop to around 1000-2000 feet in UIN and COU Sunday
morning and in the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon. Sely
surface wind will veer around to a nwly direction late tonight
in UIN as they have already in COU, and in the St Louis metro
area late Sunday morning after fropa. The showers will shift east
of the taf sites by early Sunday evening with cloud ceiling rising
to VFR conditions Sunday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds will advect into the STL area
Sunday morning, then the cloud ceiling will lower to around
1000-2000 feet Sunday afternoon with showers as well Sunday
afternoon. The cloud ceiling will rise back into the VFR category
Sunday evening. Sely surface wind will veer around to a nwly
direction late Sunday morning after fropa.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 65 39 62 42 / 90 5 0 0
Quincy 47 31 60 40 / 90 5 0 0
Columbia 46 31 64 41 / 90 5 0 0
Jefferson City 47 31 65 40 / 90 5 0 0
Salem 69 39 60 40 / 60 20 0 0
Farmington 63 35 62 38 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A quick moving storm system will bring lowering ceilings to the
region late tonight and Sunday morning. MVFR is very likely with
some scattered IFR potential. The best potential for IFR will be
around Joplin and Springfield. A band of rain showers will also
push through the area with a reduction to MVFR possible. Skies
will then quickly clear in the afternoon with VFR returning by
late afternoon.
Winds will be somewhat brisk and gusty out of the northwest on
Sunday but will quickly diminish by evening.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A quick moving storm system will bring lowering ceilings to the
region late tonight and Sunday morning. MVFR is very likely with
some scattered IFR potential. The best potential for IFR will be
around Joplin and Springfield. A band of rain showers will also
push through the area with a reduction to MVFR possible. Skies
will then quickly clear in the afternoon with VFR returning by
late afternoon.
Winds will be somewhat brisk and gusty out of the northwest on
Sunday but will quickly diminish by evening.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
It was another nice day across southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Under a mix of sun and clouds, temperatures warmed into
the 60s.
A cold front was positioned across the Kansas Flint Hills. This
feature will approach the region, and force a chilly rainfall
along and north of this feature late tonight and into Sunday.
Most locations on Sunday will experience measurable precipitation.
Although, this episode of rain will be short-lived. A speed max
located over northern New Mexico will drive this rain east of the
Ozarks by Sunday evening.
With skies clearing and winds becoming light and variable,
temperatures Sunday night will fall below freezing in many areas.
The eastern Ozarks may stay above freezing.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
A warming trend is expected Monday through Wednesday as an upper
level ridge of high pressure translates across the nations mid
section.
Temperatures by Tuesday afternoon will be well into the 70s.
Tuesday will be a fantastic day for outdoor activities.
Meanwhile, an intense storm system will be brewing out to the
west. This will pull Gulf moisture into the Ozarks, and set the
stage for an episode of severe storms during the day on Wednesday.
Regarding Wednesday, both the GFS and ECMWF have been consistent
with timing thunderstorm development during the daytime, which
would allow for more destabilization. Shear looks pretty strong
with this system.
Given this cape - shear signal, we will begin to mention an
expectation for severe thunderstorms.
After Wednesday we will need to watch for the risk of cold air and
freeze possibilities.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A quick moving storm system will bring lowering ceilings to the
region late tonight and Sunday morning. MVFR is very likely with
some scattered IFR potential. The best potential for IFR will be
around Joplin and Springfield. A band of rain showers will also
push through the area with a reduction to MVFR possible. Skies
will then quickly clear in the afternoon with VFR returning by
late afternoon.
Winds will be somewhat brisk and gusty out of the northwest on
Sunday but will quickly diminish by evening.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 405 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
Leading shortwave trough, that brought rain this morning into the
early afternoon, is quickly moving to our northeast taking the
lingering rain with it. However, for tonight and Sunday we will be
watching another shortwave trough, currently swinging through
Colorado, as it moves through the Southern and Central Plains on its
way east up the Ohio River Valley late Sunday. Model runs continue
to advertise another decent round of light to moderate rain with the
secondary trough, though complicating the issue is the cold air
surging south behind a cold front that the leading shortwave trough
is pushing through the forecast region today. This will provide an
opportunity for some snow sunday morning.
For Tonight and Sunday...light rain associated with a passing
shortwave is exiting the area this afternoon, and with a little
clearing of the clouds across central and northeast Missouri,
temperatures have responded in those areas by jumping into the 60s
ahead of a weak cold front, that is currently starting to sweep
across Missouri. The slight clearing behind the cold front will give
us a break in activity, but we still expect the secondary trough to
induce more lift as the axis swings across the Plains tonight. Model
runs continue to limit the precipitation shield to areas broadly
around and south of I-35 as that is where the better upper level
dynamics are. As mentioned, the dropping temperatures overnight will
complicate issues as precipitation type will likely come into play.
Model sounds indicate there is a window for some snow as the air
column cools and the precipitation develops across the eastern
Kansas and far western Missouri. However, models seem a little
aggressive with the snow and advertised accumulations given surface
temperatures that are expected to remain above freezing through the
event. But, given the temperature regime we will be in, expect a mix
of precipitation types early through mid Sunday morning. Will limit
the mention of precipitation types to rain or snow, but concede that
some reports of sleet might work in early Sunday morning. Otherwise,
there is a very small chance that some of the snow will stick to
grassy areas during the cool morning hours, but any snow that does
fall wont amount to much and will quickly melt. Ultimately, this all
boils down to a cool wet forecast for Sunday morning.
Monday into the work week...conditions will begin to rebound with a
return of warmer Spring temperatures as a large West Coast trough
forces a shortwave ridge across the Plains through mid-week.
However, that West Coast trough, and another in the northern stream,
will eventually eject through the Plains Tuesday through Thursday,
likely resulting in a large storm event across the region with severe
thunderstorms possible. This will leave temperatures in the 60s and
70s Monday through Wednesday, dropping back into the 50s Thursday on
as cool air sweeps in behind the mid-work-week storm system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1119 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
Made some updates to PoPs for the rest of the night...primarily
out over central and northeast Missouri to match up better with
latest short-range guidance. Up until the 01Z run, the RAP was
printing out some light QPF in those areas in the warm advection
ahead of the cold front...but this latest run has dried up. HRRR
still develops a few sprinkles as does the new NAM. Have kept some
low chance/slight chance PoPs for this evening over central and
northeast Missouri, but did end up pairing it back from what the
day shift gave me. Gradually ramped up PoPs after 06Z tonight toward
likely by 11-12Z.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
Early afternoon water vapor imagery depicted one shortwave lifting
away from the region and another shortwave lurking upstream, leading
to an expectation of continued benign conditions through the evening
hours. The upstream shortwave will push a cold front into the region
overnight and tomorrow. The timing and placement of large-scale
ascent, moisture, and frontogenetical forcing suggests that the
majority of pcpn should be post-frontal. This means that an area of
rain should develop and move into the western CWA either late
tonight or early tomorrow morning, depending on how quickly the cold
front progresses southeastward. A few models depicted an elongated
area of weak H85-H7 moisture convergence stretching into the CWA
after 09z, but elevated thunderstorms seem unlikely attm given the
low values of MUCAPE.
Overnight lows should be warmer than last night due to a warmer
start to the day, increasing clouds overnight, and persistent
southeasterly to southerly flow ahead of the front.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Still looks like Sunday will be wet as trough now over the central
High Plains will move east into the western Missouri by midday
tomorrow. Low level moisture convergence will increase under the
mid level ascent across central and northeast Missouri early
tomorrow morning that will spread east across the area during the
day. Have increased to categorical PoPs given the strength of the
forcing. Still looks like the speed the the trough will cause the
rain showers to move out of the area by early evening.
Then a ridge will build into the area quickly behind the trough
allowing Monday and Tuesday to be dry. Will need to watch for
frost on Monday night where temperatures drop into the lower to
mid 30s and skies will be clear with light winds. Temperatures
will climb back above normal by Tuesday as winds turn back out of
the south.
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Models have not shown much change from yesterday with a deep upper
low over the western CONUS early on Wednesday and an upper ridge
to the east. Still looks like there will be a chance of showers
and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Wednesday night as both models
are showing some amount of CAPE ahead of the cold front. The GFS
is quicker to move an upper trough that is the result of the
phasing of the northern part of the aforementioned upper low and a
trough moving southeast out of Canada across our area on Thursday.
This contrasts with the ECMWF which does not show as much phasing
and lets the Canadian trough move eastward. The GFS has it`s
attendant cold front pass through the CWA on Wednesday night
whereas the ECMWF is about 12 hours slower; it passes through on
Thursday morning. Consequently the ECMWF would allow precipitation
to linger over the area longer on Thursday compared to the GFS
which would be dry. Will hold onto the rain chances into Thursday
per the ECMWF because of this before going dry on Friday and
Saturday when a surface ridge will move into the area.
Temperatures on Wednesday still look above normal with 850mb
temperatures around +10C, but then should fall back near or below
normal behind the cold front.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
A cold front extending from a surface low over northwestern IA
south to near COU, then southwest through JLN will move slowly
southeastward through the taf sites late tonight and Sunday.
Showers are expected to move into UIN and COU Sunday morning and
into the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon ahead of an upper
level disturbance which will move east-northeastward through MO
Sunday afternoon and induce a weak surface wave along the cold
front. Low level clouds will advect into UIN and COU late tonight
and into the St Louis metro area Sunday morning. The ceiling
height will drop to around 1000-2000 feet in UIN and COU Sunday
morning and in the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon. Sely
surface wind will veer around to a nwly direction late tonight
in UIN as they have already in COU, and in the St Louis metro
area late Sunday morning after fropa. The showers will shift east
of the taf sites by early Sunday evening with cloud ceiling rising
to VFR conditions Sunday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds will advect into the STL area
Sunday morning, then the cloud ceiling will lower to around
1000-2000 feet Sunday afternoon with showers as well Sunday
afternoon. The cloud ceiling will rise back into the VFR catagory
Sunday evening. Sely surface wind will veer around to a nwly
direction late Sunday morning after fropa.
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1115 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAD A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS OF NEBRASKA. A SECONDARY LOW WAS NOTED OVER
CENTRAL UTAH. WEST OF THE TROUGH...RIDGING EXTENDED UP THE WEST
COAST OF THE CONUS INTO NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. EAST OF THE
TROUGH....SWRLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDED EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR WESTERN IOWA...INTO
FAR SERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WERE PRESENT WEST OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER A THICK VEIL OF CLOUD COVER. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE DRY AS SNOW AND RAIN WAS JUST OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...FROM NORFOLK SE TO OMAHA AND FALLS CITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNDAY IS TEMPERATURE. A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS RESULTED IN A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK AND
BRISK NORTH WINDS...LEADING TO COLDER HIGHS THAN EXPECTED TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WERE ALSO REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... KEPT A SCHC MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN BOYD... HOLT... AND WHEELER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
PERSISTENT SNOW HAS FALLEN JUST EAST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH SOME
LIGHTER SNOW BACKING UP INTO AREAS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 281. SLOWED
THE CLEARING A COUPLE HOURS ACROSS THE WEST... BUT RECENT TRENDS IN
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AND HI RES MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL OCCUR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL LIFT
DISAPPEARING AFTER SUNSET. AN 850HPA RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS
OVERNIGHT... HELPING TO WEAKEN THE FLOW. WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT... THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE AND LEAD
TO COOLER MIN TEMPS. LOWERED A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE AREA... WHICH
FOLLOWS MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CLOSELY.
SUNDAY... RIDGES AT 500HPA AND 850HPA CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH A LULL IN THE UPPER JET. ALL MODELS SHOWING DECENT WAA
WITH H85 TEMPS AT KLBF RISING FROM AROUND 0C AT 12Z TO 7C AT 00Z.
TEMPS APPROACH 8C IN THE PANHANDLE BUT STAY AROUND 3C FAR NORTH
CENTRAL. A DOWNSLOPE REGIME WILL AID IN WARMING AND DRYING ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN MIXING TO 750HPA PER NAM SOUNDINGS... PREVIOUS
FORECAST HIGHS NEAR 60F SEEM REASONABLE SO MADE LITTLE CHANGE. THE
HIGHS ALSO AGREE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. DESPITE LOW RH IN THE
AFTERNOON... NEAR 20 PERCENT FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF HWY 83... WIND
WILL NOT SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL OFFER UP SOME DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEASONAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S...WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION EAST AS A
CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NRN UTAH AND SWRN
WYOMING. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...STRONG MID LEVEL WAA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE...WILL LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS INDICATE SOME MEAGER
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FAR EASTERN CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ALL
LIFT A DECENT AREA OF MID LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL END BRIEFLY ACROSS THE
EAST TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO SWRN NEBRASKA. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS REACHING 45 TO 50
DEGREES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WITH HEATING AND THE APPG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN CWA TUES AFTN. I DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A ERICSON TO SPRINGVIEW LINE AS THIS IS WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA...I DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHRAS
AS THESE AREAS AS THEY WILL BE INVOF OF THE H7 FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE EXTENDED PERIOD PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEYOND TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...AND A MIX
OF RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEDS
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TRACKS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ITS WAKE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT. QPF/S WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM...SO
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY DECENT SNOW ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHILE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
150 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT...BRINGING GOOD RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1005 PM SATURDAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY COLLAPSED
WITH ONLY RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NC COAST AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. 01Z RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS STILL
SHOW PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT OVERHEAD AND THEREFORE
I AM RELUCTANT TO PULL POPS BACK TOO MUCH...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
A LINE FROM FLORENCE AND MARION COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SOUTHPORT
WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
REMAIN.
WHY DID PRECIPITATION FALL APART? WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS INJECTING HEAT INTO
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LIKELY REDUCING INSTABILITY OVER THE
CAROLINAS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THERE IS SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS GULF CONVECTION SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT
OTHERWISE ONGOING LOCALLY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...STILL EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
THEIR CURRENT READINGS AND REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
DISCUSSION FROM 615 PM FOLLOWS...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
LINKED TO AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING NE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND 300 MB WINDS ACCELERATING INTO A JET
STREAK CENTERED ACROSS VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY WON`T
BECOME ANY MORE INTENSE THAN IT IS NOW...BUT SHOULD LARGELY
MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
CAPE FEAR AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...DROPPING A WIDESPREAD
0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION.
AT THE SURFACE A FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDING
ROUGHLY FROM NEAR COLUMBIA TO DARLINGTON...THEN VEERED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD GEORGETOWN AND OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
TOWER. DEWPOINT MAY BE THE BEST ANALYSIS FIELD TO USE WITH THIS
FRONT AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT TO
THE 50S TO THE NORTH. SURFACE PARCELS ARE EITHER THERMODYNAMICALLY
STABLE ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA OR CAPPED ACROSS NE SOUTH
CAROLINA...HOWEVER WHEN CONSIDERING A PARCEL ORIGINATING FROM
ABOUT 4000 FEET ALOFT CAPE RANGES FROM 200 J/KG ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA TO NEARLY 500 J/KG OVER MYRTLE BEACH AND GEORGETOWN. THIS
EXPLAINS THE LIGHTNING OBSERVED IN THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA.
THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS MADE EARLY TO RAISE POPS TO 100 PERCENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FLORENCE AND MARION TO WHITEVILLE
AND WILMINGTON. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION...THEN BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
CAPE FEAR REGION. AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE GFS AND NAM ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE WITH SURFACE WINDS...HOWEVER THE 17Z AND 18Z
RUNS OF THE HRRRX (NOT HRRR) APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
OBSERVED RADAR ECHOES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JAMMED
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINA INTERIOR WHILE A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST AND INSHORE WATERS WAVERS BUT EXHIBITS
LITTLE MOVEMENT...BEFORE LIFTING AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE PERIODS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
ARE APT TO OCCUR SUNDAY...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE
RAINFALL APPEARS TIMED TO CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY. INSTABILITY THIS PERIOD SHOWS 2 MAXIMUMS
WITH THE FIRST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS AND LOW
LEVEL BUOYANCY INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE FLEDGLING WARM FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SECOND PEAK IN CAPE VALUES WILL BE
SEEN MONDAY AHEAD AND ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
REACHES THE COAST AROUND 5-6 PM. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY COULD BE STRONG. 1/2-1 INCH RAINFALL AVERAGES ACROSS NE
SC AND SE NC SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED.
MILDEST SEGMENT IN THIS PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS SOAR
WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE MOVING
OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY COULD BE STRONG. THE COOLEST
PORTION OF THE PERIOD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE REGION AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY TUE WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. WEAK 5H RIDGE BUILDING ON
WED SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATER WED AND WED NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE
RIDGE WILL LIMIT CLOUDS AND PREVENT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WED AND WED NIGHT.
AMPLIFICATION OF MID LEVEL PATTERN AND RESULTING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
STARTS INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY WITH THE GFS/ECMWF THU-SAT. THIS IS
DOWN TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN. THE GFS IS MORE
AMPLIFIED BUT INTERESTINGLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. USUALLY
AMPLIFICATION SLOWS THINGS DOWN BUT THE STRONGER MID LEVEL PUSH IN
THE GFS HELPS MOVE THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM EAST AT A FASTER RATE. WORTH
NOTING THE WPC SOLUTION AND THE 12Z CANADIAN ARE IN THE ECMWF
CAMP...AS IS THE INHERITED FORECAST. THUS NO MAJOR CHANGE IN
THINKING WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE LATE WEEK FORECAST.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE THU AND REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY THU NIGHT AND FRI...THROUGH SAT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SAT
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE COOLER AIR MASS REMAINS WEST
OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...BRIEF REPRIEVE FOR PCPN OCCURRENCE THRU DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER...ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS FROM EITHER REDUCED CEILINGS BELOW 1K FT...AND/OR...
REDUCED VSBY FROM BR AND/OR PCPN THRUOUT THIS 24 HR TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD. THE NEXT PCPN OCCURRENCE WILL BEGIN DURING DAYTIME THIS
MORNING...WITH STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN. THE STALLED FRONT CURRENTLY
RESIDES OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND THEN EXTENDS INLAND
FROM CHS. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY OSCILLATE BACK TO THE NORTH
LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...RESULTING WITH AN INCREASE IN PCPN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IE. THUNDER.
HAVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THE OPPORTUNE TIME FOR THUNDER OCCURRENCE
IN RELATION TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A MID LEVEL S/W TROF MOVING
OVERHEAD IN CONCERT WITH THE NORTH MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THE POSSIBLE 25 TO 30 KT WIND GUSTS FROM THE
CONVECTION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MVFR/IFR FROM REDUCED VSBY FROM PCPN
AND FOG...AND LOW CIGS...WILL ALL CONTINUE THRU MONDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. CFP LATE MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THERE-AFTER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR SHOWERS AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM SATURDAY...WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND WHERE GUSTS HAVE
RECENTLY REACHED 16-19 KNOTS OFF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. THE TREND
STILL SHOULD BE TOWARD WEAKER WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS HAVE
BUILT TO A SOLID 4 FEET NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...2-4 FEET ELSEWHERE.
DISCUSSION FROM 615 PM FOLLOWS...
A WEAK FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS...AND SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS...10-15 KT FROM THE ENE...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT IN
THE SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WAS TO INCREASE FORECAST
RAIN CHANCES SUBSTANTIALLY. RADAR INDICATES THERE IS A SEVERAL
HOUR BLOCK OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR ARRIVING IN THE MID-
LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A REDUCTION IN THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE LATEST CHECK ARE 3-4 FEET
IN A COMBINATION OF 8-9 SECOND SWELL AND 4-6 SECOND WIND WAVES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND MUCH OF SUNDAY
BEFORE VEERING TO S-SW AS A STALLED COASTAL FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR HEADLINES APPEAR NEEDED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SSW-SW WINDS 15 KT SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND
ISOLATED TSTMS HOWEVER WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO 1 NM AT TIMES ALONG
WITH ISOLATED GUSTY TSTM WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
IT ARE BELOW ADVISORY RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR SW WINDS 15-20 KT EARLY MONDAY AND 3-5 FT SEAS. A
GOOD IDEA TO GET RADAR UPDATES...AS THE MARINE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH TRANSIT OF A WARM AND A COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
TUE INTO WED WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER WED AND WED NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW TUE MORNING WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
WEAKENING GRADIENT TUE WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY DECREASE IN SPEEDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TUE NIGHT SLOWLY
VEERS TO EAST LATER WED AND THEN SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT ON THU ENDING UP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KT THU AND AROUND 20 KT THU NIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT TUE AM WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WED EVENING. DEVELOPMENT
OF ONSHORE FLOW WED NIGHT WILL COMMENCE AN INCREASING TREND IN
SEAS...ACCELERATED BY THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AND AN SCA
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
353 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the area early
this morning, with most of the rain after sunrise being confined
to northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Will keep all
precipitation liquid, although the HRRR says it will be a close
call in the northwest corner of the forecast area. Skies will
clear rapidly this afternoon allowing temperatures to warm into
the 50s.
A cold night is on tap tonight as surface high pressure resides
over the area, and most places will droip to near or below
freezing. Thus, will issue a freeze warning for all but far
southeast Oklahoma from midnight until 9 am Monday.
Increasing southerly winds will result in warmer temperatures
Monday through Wednesday. The next storm system will bring
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night
into Wednesday night, with southeast parts of the forecast area
seeing the greatest coverage and amounts of rainfall.
Dry weather with seasonable temperatures will then prevail late
this week into the weekend. The models have backed off on the
southwest progression of a cold arctic airmass late next weekend
and will await later data to see if this trend continues.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 56 32 69 47 / 70 0 0 0
FSM 58 33 69 44 / 30 0 0 0
MLC 58 31 69 48 / 30 0 0 0
BVO 55 26 68 41 / 80 0 0 0
FYV 51 26 66 38 / 40 0 0 0
BYV 52 29 66 41 / 40 0 0 0
MKO 56 31 68 46 / 50 0 0 0
MIO 51 29 67 44 / 80 0 0 0
F10 57 31 68 48 / 50 0 0 0
HHW 61 34 69 47 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
OKZ049-054>076.
AR...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
439 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING MARITIME AIR INTO THE STATE...WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION...WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY. FAIR BUT COOLER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MID WEEK...AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN STORE FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HRRR 925 MB RH DEPICTING ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING...AS LOW CIGS BACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER
VALLEY TOWARDS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS CLOUD COVER REMAINING CONSTANT IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD FROM MD/VA AND WILL BRUSH MY SOUTHERN ZONES
THIS MORNING.
MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN SUBDUED TEMPERATURE CURVES AS
HIGHS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL BE SOME 6 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY CREST. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WITHIN THE MARITIME REGIME BUT IT APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH...A NICER DAY IS IN STORE FROM THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. BEST CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
60S..WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF CENTRAL PA ONLY SEES MID 50S FOR
HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS ENE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND DIRECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW WILL
BE SPAWNED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. BOTH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON MONDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN
THE FRESHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND RANGE THROUGH THE 40S. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER SOME WET WEATHER ON MONDAY...AND COOLER WEATHER AGAIN ON
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE MARCH. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS COULD RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND. SOME SHOWERS LATER
THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
WILL KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE WEST...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS IN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS.
FOR WED INTO THU...EDGE TEMPERATURES UP SOME...GIVEN STRONG
SW FLOW. TENDENCY THIS SEASON IS FOR FORECAST TEMPERATURES
TO BE A LITTLE TOO COOL.
DID CUT BACK ON POPS SOME PRIOR TO THU NIGHT. BASED ON EC MODEL
AND PATTERN FCST.
VERY DEEP COLD AIRMASS COULD WORK INTO THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT.
USED THE SUPERBLEND BUT DID ADJUST SOME TO FIT IN WITH OTHERS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE SE /LOCATION INDICATED
QUITE WELL IN THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY/ AS E/SE FLOW
PERSISTS. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD INTO THE LOWER SUSQ AT
08Z...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL ADVANCE INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS THROUGH MID MORNING. WESTERN TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THE
LONGEST...WITH CIGS REACHING KJST IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATE DAY AT
KBFD. IN ADDITION...KMDT-KLNS MAY EVEN SLIP TO IFR FOR A BRIEF
TIME AROUND SUNRISE. MIXING IS THEN EXPECTED TO ATTEMPT TO RAISE
THE CIGS A BIT. HOWEVER...IT COULD ALSO RESULT IN STABILITY AND
ISOLD/SCT SHRA IN THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THRU ON MONDAY. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RA/BR EXPECTED SUN
NIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ESP SE ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...CFROPA AM. SHOWERS EARLY. RESTRICTIONS PERSIST NORTHWEST.
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON SE. BREEZY NW WIND.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/TYBURSKI
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
357 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...TWO SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED JETS
WILL EFFECT THE AREA. FIRST SYSTEM IS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
THE CONVECTION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA...BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ADVECT NORTH. MAIN SYSTEM
IS SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT FROM THIS STRONGER WAVE WILL BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NORTHERN/WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
LATEST SPC HRRR MODEL SHOWS BEST INSTABILITY THERE AND EXPECT
STORMS TO ERUPT THERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN MOVE
EAST. DUE TO TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOT UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND UPPER SUPPORT BEST NORTH OF THE
AREA...DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...BEST
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NE TN AND SW VA AND EASTERN TN
MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING. CLEARING SKIES ELSEWHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE MS AND WESTERN TN VALLEYS. MUCH COLDER MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT WINDS WILL STAY UP SO FROST NOT VERY LIKELY. WARMING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AROUND HIGH WILL
BEGIN WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND PLATEAU. A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD EAST OVER
NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY BUT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...MORE SHOWERS
WILL MOVE AROUND THE TROUGH THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN BE
MUCH COOLER SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 52 66 41 / 60 70 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 50 63 38 / 40 80 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 73 49 63 39 / 40 80 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 73 50 62 34 / 30 70 10 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
325 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT WITH
OVERALL DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT SUNDAY...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NE...ESPCLY IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BASICALLY LOCK
IN LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPCLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS MOST MEASURABLE RAINFALL PER
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
THE IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR WEST DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT BEFORE MIXING OUT
ESPCLY FAR WEST GIVEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST MODEL
STABILITY INDICES INDICATE A SHARP GRADIENT NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE WEST. THUS PLAN
TO HAVE LITTLE POP ACROSS FAR SW VA INTO SE WEST VA WHERE SHOULD PUNCH
INTO THE 60S...WHILE TRENDING MORE CHANCE COVERAGE ELSEWHERE AFTER 12Z
FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY -RA/DZ WHICH MAY STILL BE OVERDONE.
OTRW CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA GIVEN
SUCH WARMTH ALOFT OVER A DEEP LATE MARCH WEDGE THAT COULD SCOUR SOME
TOWARD THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE LATER ON. HOWEVER THINK WILL HOLD OVER
THE EAST WHERE WILL TRIM HIGHS BACK MORE INTO THE 50S...WHILE KEEPING
VALUES CLOSER TO 60 FAR SE AND NEW RIVER VALLEY SECTIONS.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE EXITING EASTERN VA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ENHANCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
REGION SLIPS IN BETWEEN LIFT TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE. WEDGE WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING
FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH ANY INSTABILITY QUITE WEAK AND
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME SOLUTIONS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL SE FLOW AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DO COMBO A SWATH OF RAIN INTO THE ONGOING UPSLOPE
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THE WAVE. THUS HAVE EXPANDED LIKELY POPS
NE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING WITH A LINGERING SWATH OF
CATEGORICAL BEFORE DIMINISHING TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT TO THE NW SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE WEST NEAR
DAYBREAK BUT GIVEN MOST DYNAMICS NORTH AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
COULD EASILY SEE COVERAGE WEAKEN. THEREFORE ONLY UPPING POPS BACK
TO LOW LIKELYS FAR NW BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION LATE
FOR RESIDUAL CONVECTION PUSHING EAST. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S WITH RISES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE CAD STARTS TO
WEAKEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT SUNDAY...
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS (NORTHERN STREAM-OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN STREAM-OFF THE
VA/NC COAST) TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING ALONG WESTERN
GREENBRIER. PRESSURE RISES AND A +40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. INVERSION DEVELOPS MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TO KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY AS COLD AIR
PUSHING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN
THE MID 50S ALONG WESTERN SLOPES TO NEAR 60F TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL HELP THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES WARM INTO THE LOWER
70S.
DESPITE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING
MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TO GO BELOW FREEZING WITH AMPLE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS EAST COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE RIDGES WARMER THAN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
TYPICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS OPENING UP
THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVING IT FASTER EAST. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEP
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS SEPARATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL BE TRENDING TO THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND WPC FORECAST.
THIS MOVES THE 500 MB RIDGE OFF SHORE BY FRIDAY AND DIG A DEEP
NORTHERN STREAM TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.
EXPECTING GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND +12.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY PROLONG THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND HOLD CLOUDS IN
THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EDT SUNDAY...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTH CAUSING CIGS TO LOWER THROUGH
MVFR TO IFR/LIFR ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS AREAS TO
THE WEST WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE/LOWER BUT EXPECTING OVERALL VFR
AT KBLF/KLWB UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE LOWER CIGS ARRIVE.
SHOULD ALSO SEE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AROUND KDAN WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE FROM KBCB/KROA EAST BY DAWN AS THE
WEDGE ENHANCES. HOWEVER VISIBILITIES MORE QUESTIONABLE...BUT
EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP IN -RA/-DZ/BR OVERNIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LATEST MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE WEDGE MAY HOLD IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING SUNDAY
WITH PERHAPS PERIODS OF MVFR TO VFR AT KBLF/KLWB WHERE WILL BE ON
THE PERIMETER OF THE WEDGE. THIS IN THE WAKE OF EXITING -RA WITH
AN INITIAL PASSING MORNING SHORTWAVE FOLLOWED BY LOW CIGS/FOG
LIKELY HANGING TOUGH GIVEN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COOL
POOL.
AN UPSTREAM STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER
SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH BEST
SUPPORT LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS DURING
THE EVENING. THUS PLAN TO SLOWLY TRANSITION GOING STRATIFORM -DZ
OVER TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE DURING THE EVENING BUT WITHOUT
THUNDER MENTION ATTM.
WINDS MOSTLY ESE-NE OVERNIGHT 5-7KTS...BECOMING ESE-SE 7-9KTS
SUNDAY DURING THE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE AROUND
KBLF DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY SUNDAY EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. BREEZY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE DELAYED EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF WEST VA WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS/RCS
AVIATION...JH/PC/RAB
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
OVERNIGHT...RAIN OR DRIZZLE WAS REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH... WITH
A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS VILAS COUNTY. TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS MORNING WERE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. THE
COOL SPOT WAS MANITOWOC AT 32 WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOT
ARRIVED. COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR MODEL HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND FOLLOWED THIS
SCENARIO TODAY. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH A LITTLE SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ACROSS VILAS COUNTY DUE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH.
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE MODELS A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND OF RAIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE RAIN WOULD MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS GREEN
BAY AND APPLETON. PER COORDINATION WITH NWS MILWAUKEE...INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED
NATURE IN THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
FELT PRETTY CONFIDENT ON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE 06Z
WRF MODEL SHOVED EAST BY 50 MILES AND WOULD ONLY CLIP MANITOWOC
AND KEWAUNEE COUNTIES. WILL STAY THE COURSE NOW AND PASS ON TO
THE DAY SHIFT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS TO THE SOUTH WOULD LINE UP
THE RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE USING THE
OLD FASHION EYE BALL METHOD. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY 00Z TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW
DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING BY A FEW HOURS. SKIES WILL NOT BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS WINDS
DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE.
LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CLOUDS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ON THE DAY
SHIFT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. PER GFS MODEL...COULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH. DID NOT
INCLUDE THEM AT THIS TIME. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
DURING THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE PASSING ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A SURFACE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION. MODELS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY DURING THIS PERIOD SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED. COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH A
MIX OR SNOW IN THE NORTH. IS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT NIGHT FOR
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...A
COOLING TREND WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. AREAS
OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER AND WINDS
DECREASE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SUNDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
257 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MONITORING THE LIGHT RAIN BAND MOVING NORTHWARD IN AN AREA OF
WEAK-MODERATE 600-800MB DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS. THIS EXTENDS
FROM SWRN MN INTO NC WI PER RAP GUIDANCE...AND MATCHES RADAR
WELL...NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN SC MN AT 07Z. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD GREEN BAY TODAY PER LATEST RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE AND ALLOW THE DEFORMATION FORCING TO CAUSE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TO CONTINUE. RAP HAS BEEN INDICATING A STRENGTHENING OF
THIS FORCING IN THE 12-15Z WINDOW OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
SO...THERE MAYBE BE A BREAK THROUGH SUNRISE...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS
REDEVELOP. IN ANY CASE...WILL SLOWLY PULL RAIN CHANCES EASTWARD
THROUGH MID-DAY FROM A DODGE COUNTY MN TO CLARK COUNTY WI LINE
AND NORTH ANS SYSTEM SHIFTS OUT.
FRONTOGENESIS RAMPS UP FURTHER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN
WEATHER SYSTEM AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ALONG A SW-NE LINE
PASSING THROUGH KDBQ. SHOULD SEE A NEWRD EXPANSE TO THE NARROW
PRECIPITATION BAND NOW NEAR KANSAS CITY. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY IN FAR SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY.
EXPECTING MOST OF THE SYSTEMS WEATHER WILL BE SE OF THE AREA.
WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT...MOIST SOILS...ABOUT
2 KM OF LIGHT WINDS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...HAVE ADDED
SOME PATCHY FOG AREA-WIDE FOR LATER TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
PRETTY QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE IS DOWNSTREAM OF A MAJOR OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN CONUS. THIS IS A WELL AGREED UPON
FEATURE IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND WILL CAUSE SOME TROUBLE
IN PREDICTABILITY MID-WEEK AND BEYOND. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE IS
FAIRLY WELL AGREED ON...DETAILS VARY ON HOW THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH. IN
THE BIGGER PICTURE...SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AND WARMS/MOISTENS
WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THUS...IT COULD BE A
FAIRLY WET PERIOD WITH AN ACTIVE WARM AND COLD FRONT SCENARIO.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHILE PLACED DIFFERENTLY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS... IS IN THE REGION IN THE 26.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...
AND THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON. BOTTOM LINE IS A WET PERIOD THERE
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND.
TOO EARLY TO TELL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT WIND SHEAR WILL
BE FAVORABLE. LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE INSTABILITY/CAP
STRENGTH/CLOUDS...WOULD CHARACTERIZE SEVERE STORM THREAT AS
QUITE MINIMAL NOW. HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A BIT BIGGER THREAT BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN AND SYNOPTICS EVOLVE. 27.00Z GEFS MEAN
QPF IN THE AREA IS AROUND AN INCH.
SPREAD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS PRETTY HIGH. I THINK THE TAKE AWAY FOR
LATE WEEK IS A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER...PROBABLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
SHOWERS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AT LATE EVENING...BUT
SHORTWAVE WAS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS NORTHEAST...AND MESO MODELS TREND
TOWARD LIFTING THE -SHRA NORTH OF KRST/KLSE BY 06Z OR SO. LOWER CIGS
WILL MOVE IN AS THE LOW APPROACHES IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SOME BR VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE INTO MID MORNING...
MOSTLY KRST. THE LOW CIGS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUALLY DIURNAL BUMP UP. LOOKING FOR CLEARING NEAR
00Z MON FOR KRST...CLOSER TO 03Z FOR KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1042 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 14Z...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ALONG A
WEAK WARM FRONT DRAPED ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH AN SMW OR
TWO POSSIBLE FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS GIVEN MODEST HAIL AND WIND
THREAT.
PRECIP THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS COMING INTO FOCUS. MODEST
SPREAD REMAINS IN THE MODELS IN TERMS OF PRECIP COVERAGE AND
TIMING...BUT GENERAL PATTERNS ARE BECOMING CLEAR. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES ACROSS
OUR CWA TODAY. HIGH THETA-E ADVECTION ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING P-WATS NEAR 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON
FOR COASTAL AREAS. ALOFT...A BROAD ZONE OF 200 MB DIFLUENCE WILL
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. NEAR
100 POPS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED FOR COASTAL AND MARINE AREAS THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY
TO SEE ALL OF THE ELEMENTS FOR RAINFALL COME TOGETHER GIVEN THE
EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
CWA. THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING LOOKS FAIRLY LOW
ATTM...UNLESS TRAINING OF DEEP CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...SO THERE
ARE NO PLANS FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE HAS REACHED THE SURFACE THUS FAR THIS
MORNING...AND TEMPS ARE ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES...TO
MID 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA. MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DECENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE MORNING...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT
LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS AS THEY DID YESTERDAY.
THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF TSTMS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.
TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...A
WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE TEMPS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER...MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER GIVEN THE POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH EARLY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
INLAND WITH LOWER-MID 60S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES WHILE THE MID TO UPPER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA BECOMES ZONAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME DOWNSLOPING...OFF OF THE
APPALACHIANS...AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS HINT AT SOME REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA SO
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE AREA. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING/DOWNSLOPING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY...COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE A RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR
REGION. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD...INTO THE ATLANTIC...WHILE A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD DAMPEN TEMPERATURE RISES.
HOWEVER...IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR THEY MOVE IN
LATER THAN EXPECTED...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE U.S. WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT
STRETCHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IT TAPS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WENT WITH A BLEND THAT KEEPS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO KSAV AND WILL LIKELY REACH KCHS BY RELEASE
TIME. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW CIGS LIFTING A BIT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. WILL
NEED TO CARRY CIGS BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR BY 14Z. SHOWERS COULD AFFECT
THE KCHS TERMINAL DURING THIS TIME...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
BRIEF. MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
LATER TODAY. TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT LONG DURATION
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ONCE SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE IN. WILL CARRY
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPO GROUPS TO ADDRESS A POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. THE
INTRODUCTION OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS SETUP. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL END BY MID-EVENING WITH A RISK FOR LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN
OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT WILL PREVAIL
WITH THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VSBYS
TO LESS THAN 1 NM AT TIMES AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME TSTMS
DEVELOP. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY END
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. SOME LOW-LEVEL JETTING COULD
ENHANCE THE WIND FIELD A BIT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 30 NM FROM SHORE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT
OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE AND CHARLESTON COUNTY LEGS. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SW FLOW WILL RAMP UP MONDAY BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 15 KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BUT MODELS STILL NEED
TO COME TOGETHER FOR TIMING THE SURGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE PINCHED GRADIENTS. DURING THIS TIME WINDS AND SEAS
WILL UNDERGO A NOTICEABLE UPTICK. WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE
TRANQUIL. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEB/ST
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...MS/ST
MARINE...MS/ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
702 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORE WET WEATHER WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS THE REGION REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN A
WARM/MOIST WARM SECTOR BENEATH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. A NUMBER
OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. IT IS PROVING DIFFICULT TO
IDENTIFY WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SETUP IN THE
ABSENCE OF A STRONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND INDEED THERE MAY BE
SEVERAL CONCENTRATED AREAS THAT GRADUALLY EVOLVE OVER TIME.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY IN ANY ONE AREA...IT DOES
APPEAR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE THROUGH. CATEGORICAL POPS
NEAR 100 PERCENT IS ORDER FOR ALL AREAS FOR THIS REASON.
THE HEAVIEST RAINS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS
THIS IS WHEN MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PEAK BENEATH A RIBBON
OF PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES AND A CORRIDOR OF BROAD 250 HPA
DIFLUENCE. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING LOOKS FAIRLY LOW
ATTM...UNLESS TRAINING OF DEEP CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...SO THERE
ARE NO PLANS FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S DESPITE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN LATER TODAY.
MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY
MID-LATE MORNING...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS AS THEY DID YESTERDAY. THERE
IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF TSTMS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSTMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY BEING DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES GENERATED EARLIER ACTIVITY AND SOME UPPER FORCING
INDUCED BY PASSING MID-LEVEL IMPULSES. THE AXIS OF RAIN WILL
STEADILY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND
WITH LOWER- MID 60S AT THE COAST.
MONDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES WHILE THE MID TO UPPER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA BECOMES ZONAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME DOWNSLOPING...OFF OF THE
APPALACHIANS...AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS HINT AT SOME REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA SO
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE AREA. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING/DOWNSLOPING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY...COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE A RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR
REGION. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD...INTO THE ATLANTIC...WHILE A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD DAMPEN TEMPERATURE RISES.
HOWEVER...IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR THEY MOVE IN
LATER THAN EXPECTED...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE U.S. WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT
STRETCHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IT TAPS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WENT WITH A BLEND THAT KEEPS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO KSAV AND WILL LIKELY REACH KCHS BY RELEASE
TIME. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW CIGS LIFTING A BIT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. WILL
NEED TO CARRY CIGS BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR BY 14Z. SHOWERS COULD AFFECT
THE KCHS TERMINAL DURING THIS TIME...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
BRIEF. MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
LATER TODAY. TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT LONG DURATION
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ONCE SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE IN. WILL CARRY
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPO GROUPS TO ADDRESS A POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. THE
INTRODUCTION OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS SETUP. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL END BY MID-EVENING WITH A RISK FOR LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN
OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT WILL PREVAIL
WITH THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VSBYS
TO LESS THAN 1 NM AT TIMES AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME TSTMS
DEVELOP. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY END
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. SOME LOW-LEVEL JETTING COULD
ENHANCE THE WIND FIELD A BIT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 30 NM FROM SHORE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT
OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE AND CHARLESTON COUNTY LEGS. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SW FLOW WILL RAMP UP MONDAY BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 15 KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BUT MODELS STILL NEED
TO COME TOGETHER FOR TIMING THE SURGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE PINCHED GRADIENTS. DURING THIS TIME WINDS AND SEAS
WILL UNDERGO A NOTICEABLE UPTICK. WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE
TRANQUIL. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1131 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
IT WILL BE A MILD EASTER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN
CENTRAL LOWER...TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER. HOWEVER
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SPOTS SOUTH AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS MAY EVEN HAVE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THEN EXIT THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...BUT IT WILL BE DRY.
MORE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
AGAIN FRIDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD COOL
DOWN AGAIN WITH HIGHS JUST IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
QUITE DRY HERE IN SW LOWER MI. IT IS NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
I DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GET ADD GREATER DETAIL TO THE SHORT TERM
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART I DELAYED
THE START OF THE RAIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THAT WILL ONLY START MOVING INTO
OUR WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS FROM
GRAND RAPIDS TO ALMA AND SOUTH SHOULD STAY DRY MOST OF TODAY.
BASED ON THE 04 AM HRRR AND 04 AM RAP MODELS... THE CONVECTION
WILL NOT GET INTO OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS TILL AFTER 4 PM. MODEL
SOUNDING SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE AREA NEAR JXN AND
MOSTLY AFTER 4 PM. THAT IS REALLY NOT A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE IDEA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL IN THE I-69
AREA AGREES WITH THE SPC SREF AND THE NCAR ENSEMBLES. OVERALL MOST
OF OUR CWA WILL NOT SEE RAIN UNTIL TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS MORE THAN POSSIBLE IN THE I-69 AREA FROM THESE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THE SYSTEM FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT APPEARS STRONGER WITH SOLID
JET DYNAMICS. ALSO SEEING DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SOME
THUNDER. THEN THE WORK WEEK STARTS OUT COOL AND DRY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE QUICKLY NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A 115 KT
UPPER JET WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION MOVING OVER LOWER MI BY MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
JET IMPLUSES KEEP THIS QUAD OF THE UPPER JET OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A PROLONG PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION AND A STEADIER RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AS WE WORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
WE CAN ALSO EXPECT A LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS ADDED LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS LOW LEVEL JET...SO ADDED SOME
THUNDER. THIS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. GENERALLY
EXPECT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN...BUT AREAS SE OF GRR COULD
SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH. WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS TOWARD THE FAR SE CWA...TOWARD JXN...PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL.
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE CWA MONDAY MORNING...SO ADDED LOW
POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA FOR A FEW LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE SLOW CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. I DID LOWER MAX TEMPS
ON MONDAY WITH DECENT CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY THEN AND HIGHS AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THERE WILL BE TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE FIRST IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THEN THERE IS A ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WITH IT FOR SUNDAY (ALL DAY) AND SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LIKELY WILL ACCUMULATE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.
A POWERFUL STORM (958 MB) CURRENTLY NEAR 48N AND 171E... WITH A 200
KNOT JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH IT... THAT BUILDS A LARGE UPSTREAM
RIDGE JUST OFF SHORE OF NORTH AMERICA FROM CALIFORNIA TO ALASKA BY
TUESDAY. THAT IN TURN FORCES A MERGER OF A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS BRING A STRONG
SPRING STORM THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF MICHIGAN THAT
PUTS US IN THE WARM AIR AND WITH A GULF CONNECTION... THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS IT TYPICAL THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS AND IS MORE LIKELY CORRECT.
BEHIND THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE ARCTIC DIVES INTO THAT DEEP
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TROUGH AND BRINGS THE COLDEST AIR SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF MARCH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY WE WILL NOT GET ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE AGAIN THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY TONIGHT WHEN THE RAIN BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE AFTER 03Z. ONCE THE LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE IN WE COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL
PERSIST EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME TURN
TO THE NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY TOWARD MORNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LAN AND JXN TAF SITES
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS IS BASED ON RAP AND HRRR MODEL
SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY
CHARTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
RATHER STRONG NNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES BY. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING LATE TONIGHT
AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THE LAKE WILL CALM DOWN LATE
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MANY RIVER FORECAST POINTS... ESPECIALLY ON THE GRAND RIVER... ARE
RUNNING NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE BANK FULL. UP TO AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK IN TWO CHUNKS. SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT... THE RAIN (UNDER A HALF INCH) WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST.
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD THEREFORE SLOWLY FALL THIS WEEK. NUISANCE
FLOODING WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN LOWLAND AREAS ADJACENT
TO RIVER BANKS. MORE IMPACTFUL MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BY WEEKS END.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
712 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
IT WILL BE A MILD EASTER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN
CENTRAL LOWER...TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER. HOWEVER
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SPOTS SOUTH AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS MAY EVEN HAVE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THEN EXIT THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...BUT IT WILL BE DRY.
MORE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
AGAIN FRIDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD COOL
DOWN AGAIN WITH HIGHS JUST IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
I DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GET ADD GREATER DETAIL TO THE SHORT TERM
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART I DELAYED
THE START OF THE RAIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THAT WILL ONLY START MOVING INTO
OUR WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS FROM
GRAND RAPIDS TO ALMA AND SOUTH SHOULD STAY DRY MOST OF TODAY.
BASED ON THE 04 AM HRRR AND 04 AM RAP MODELS... THE CONVECTION
WILL NOT GET INTO OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS TILL AFTER 4 PM. MODEL
SOUNDING SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE AREA NEAR JXN AND
MOSTLY AFTER 4 PM. THAT IS REALLY NOT A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE IDEA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL IN THE I-69
AREA AGREES WITH THE SPC SREF AND THE NCAR ENSEMBLES. OVERALL MOST
OF OUR CWA WILL NOT SEE RAIN UNTIL TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS MORE THAN POSSIBLE IN THE I-69 AREA FROM THESE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THE SYSTEM FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT APPEARS STRONGER WITH SOLID
JET DYNAMICS. ALSO SEEING DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SOME
THUNDER. THEN THE WORK WEEK STARTS OUT COOL AND DRY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE QUICKLY NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A 115 KT
UPPER JET WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION MOVING OVER LOWER MI BY MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
JET IMPLUSES KEEP THIS QUAD OF THE UPPER JET OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A PROLONG PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION AND A STEADIER RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AS WE WORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
WE CAN ALSO EXPECT A LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS ADDED LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS LOW LEVEL JET...SO ADDED SOME
THUNDER. THIS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. GENERALLY
EXPECT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN...BUT AREAS SE OF GRR COULD
SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH. WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS TOWARD THE FAR SE CWA...TOWARD JXN...PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL.
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE CWA MONDAY MORNING...SO ADDED LOW
POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA FOR A FEW LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE SLOW CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. I DID LOWER MAX TEMPS
ON MONDAY WITH DECENT CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY THEN AND HIGHS AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THERE WILL BE TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE FIRST IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THEN THERE IS A ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WITH IT FOR SUNDAY (ALL DAY) AND SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LIKELY WILL ACCUMULATE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.
A POWERFUL STORM (958 MB) CURRENTLY NEAR 48N AND 171E... WITH A 200
KNOT JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH IT... THAT BUILDS A LARGE UPSTREAM
RIDGE JUST OFF SHORE OF NORTH AMERICA FROM CALIFORNIA TO ALASKA BY
TUESDAY. THAT IN TURN FORCES A MERGER OF A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS BRING A STRONG
SPRING STORM THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF MICHIGAN THAT
PUTS US IN THE WARM AIR AND WITH A GULF CONNECTION... THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS IT TYPICAL THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS AND IS MORE LIKELY CORRECT.
BEHIND THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE ARCTIC DIVES INTO THAT DEEP
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TROUGH AND BRINGS THE COLDEST AIR SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF MARCH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY WE WILL NOT GET ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE AGAIN THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY TONIGHT WHEN THE RAIN BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE AFTER 03Z. ONCE THE LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE IN WE COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL
PERSIST EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME TURN
TO THE NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY TOWARD MORNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LAN AND JXN TAF SITES
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS IS BASED ON RAP AND HRRR MODEL
SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY
CHARTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
RATHER STRONG NNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES BY. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING LATE TONIGHT
AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THE LAKE WILL CALM DOWN LATE
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MANY RIVER FORECAST POINTS... ESPECIALLY ON THE GRAND RIVER... ARE
RUNNING NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE BANK FULL. UP TO AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK IN TWO CHUNKS. SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT... THE RAIN (UNDER A HALF INCH) WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST.
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD THEREFORE SLOWLY FALL THIS WEEK. NUISANCE
FLOODING WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN LOWLAND AREAS ADJACENT
TO RIVER BANKS. MORE IMPACTFUL MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BY WEEKS END.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...JK
Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s this
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will end
the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out the
details, but something to keep an eye on. Overall confidence is
medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A surface cold front just recently
moved through the taf sites over the last few hours. A post
frontal disturbance moving northeast through eastern KS will
lower ceilings, especially at KJLN (already low end MVFR) and KSGF
with increasing chances for rain. Somewhat lower ceilings at KBBG
will occur as well but with lesser sustained rain chances.
Moderately gusty northwest winds are also expected. As the
disturbance pulls away expected a clearing sky with diminishing
winds after 21z.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A surface cold front just recently
moved through the taf sites over the last few hours. A post
frontal disturbance moving northeast through eastern KS will
lower ceilings, especially at KJLN (already low end MVFR) and KSGF
with increasing chances for rain. Somewhat lower ceilings at KBBG
will occur as well but with lesser sustained rain chances.
Moderately gusty northwest winds are also expected. As the
disturbance pulls away expected a clearing sky with diminishing
winds after 21z.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A surface cold front just recently
moved through the taf sites over the last few hours. A post
frontal disturbance moving northeast through eastern KS will
lower ceilings, especially at KJLN (already low end MVFR) and KSGF
with increasing chances for rain. Somewhat lower ceilings at KBBG
will occur as well but with lesser sustained rain chances.
Moderately gusty northwest winds are also expected. As the
disturbance pulls away expected a clearing sky with diminishing
winds after 21z.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A surface cold front just recently
moved through the taf sites over the last few hours. A post
frontal disturbance moving northeast through eastern KS will
lower ceilings, especially at KJLN (already low end MVFR) and KSGF
with increasing chances for rain. Somewhat lower ceilings at KBBG
will occur as well but with lesser sustained rain chances.
Moderately gusty northwest winds are also expected. As the
disturbance pulls away expected a clearing sky with diminishing
winds after 21z.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A band of rain and snow is currently positioned across the area.
Temperatures have been hovering in the low to mid 30s making
precip type difficult to nail down. Several terminals have seen a
quick burst of snow with others just experiencing light rain. This
band of precip will hang around several more hours before clearing
from west to east by late morning. Heavier precip should drop off by
15Z with light precip possible thru 17Z. Skies begin to clear by mid
afternoon as the system moves eastward out of the region. Winds will
remain generally out of the northwest near 12kts or lighter thru the
period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A band of rain and snow is currently positioned across the area.
Temperatures have been hovering in the low to mid 30s making
precip type difficult to nail down. Several terminals have seen a
quick burst of snow with others just experiencing light rain. This
band of precip will hang around several more hours before clearing
from west to east by late morning. Heavier precip should drop off by
15Z with light precip possible thru 17Z. Skies begin to clear by mid
afternoon as the system moves eastward out of the region. Winds will
remain generally out of the northwest near 12kts or lighter thru the
period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...PMM
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of frontogenetically-driven rain will slowly slide
southeastward through the early morning hours reaching portions of
central and northeastern Missouri by mid/late morning and to the St.
Louis metro area by early afternoon. The timing of this area of
rain is several hours slower than previous forecast due to slower
fropa through the CWA.
The slower passage of the cold front will also allow temperatures to
warmup more than previously expected with a tight temperature
gradient from northwest to southeast. Across northwestern sections
of the area...highs will only be in the 40s due to copious amounts
of cloud cover and rainfall. However...for portions of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois...am expecting highs to near 70
degrees as fropa is not expected there until late afternoon. For
these areas...enough instability will likely materialize for
isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Could be an isolated strong/severe storm or two but
better chances further southeast of CWA.
Will be a lingering threat of light rain for portions of south-
central Illinois early this evening but conditions should quickly
dry out. Cloud cover will decrease overnight tonight as well.
Combine that with winds diminishing with approach of sfc
ridge...could be a good setup for radiational cooling and frost
development late tonight. Forecast lows tonight generally west of
the Mississippi River are expected to be in the 30-35 degree range
so a light freeze is possible. Will hold off on any headlines for
now and let dayshift decipher which (if any) frost/freeze headlines
are warranted. Timing of clearing skies and sfc ridge will be the
key factors.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Surface ridge will be over region Monday with dry and warmer
weather for the first part of the work week. By Tuesday surface
ridge will be to our east, so winds will be out of the south with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, low level moisture will be on the increase ahead of
next weather system. So showers and a few thunderstorms to develop
and spread northward across the area on Wednesday. The best chances
of precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening as
strong cold front slides through region. Some differences in timing
among the extended models, so kept low chance mention through
Thursday, before tapering off.
As for temperatures, Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Then colder air to filter in with highs
near normal by Friday, in the 50s.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of rain should slowly slide eastward toward KCOU/KUIN by late
this morning and St. Louis metro terminals by mid afternoon.
Ceilings will also lower to at least low MVFR along with MVFR
visibilities. IFR ceilings are also possible but most likely this
morning at KCOU and to a lesser degree KUIN. Winds will stay out
of the NW through the period at KCOU and KUIN behind the cold
front and should swing to the NW at the metro terminals by early
afternoon. Rain chances will be east of the terminals by late this
afternoon with improving conditions. For tonight...skies should
clear from west to east.
Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front should move through by early afternoon with light rain
moving in from the west shortly thereafter. Period of about 3
hours of rain along with MVFR visibilities/ceilings. Conditions
will improve by evening after the rain moves out of the area.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 66 39 62 42 / 90 5 0 0
Quincy 47 31 60 40 / 90 5 0 0
Columbia 46 31 64 41 / 80 5 0 0
Jefferson City 48 31 65 40 / 90 5 0 0
Salem 70 39 60 40 / 60 20 0 0
Farmington 65 35 62 38 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of frontogenetically-driven rain will slowly slide
southeastward through the early morning hours reaching portions of
central and northeastern Missouri by mid/late morning and to the St.
Louis metro area by early afternoon. The timing of this area of
rain is several hours slower than previous forecast due to slower
fropa through the CWA.
The slower passage of the cold front will also allow temperatures to
warmup more than previously expected with a tight temperature
gradient from northwest to southeast. Across northwestern sections
of the area...highs will only be in the 40s due to copious amounts
of cloud cover and rainfall. However...for portions of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois...am expecting highs to near 70
degrees as fropa is not expected there until late afternoon. For
these areas...enough instability will likely materialize for
isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Could be an isolated strong/severe storm or two but
better chances further southeast of CWA.
Will be a lingering threat of light rain for portions of south-
central Illinois early this evening but conditions should quickly
dry out. Cloud cover will decrease overnight tonight as well.
Combine that with winds diminishing with approach of sfc
ridge...could be a good setup for radiational cooling and frost
development late tonight. Forecast lows tonight generally west of
the Mississippi River are expected to be in the 30-35 degree range
so a light freeze is possible. Will hold off on any headlines for
now and let dayshift decipher which (if any) frost/freeze headlines
are warranted. Timing of clearing skies and sfc ridge will be the
key factors.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Surface ridge will be over region Monday with dry and warmer
weather for the first part of the work week. By Tuesday surface
ridge will be to our east, so winds will be out of the south with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, low level moisture will be on the increase ahead of
next weather system. So showers and a few thunderstorms to develop
and spread northward across the area on Wednesday. The best chances
of precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening as
strong cold front slides through region. Some differences in timing
among the extended models, so kept low chance mention through
Thursday, before tapering off.
As for temperatures, Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Then colder air to filter in with highs
near normal by Friday, in the 50s.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of rain should slowly slide eastward toward KCOU/KUIN by late
this morning and St. Louis metro terminals by mid afternoon.
Ceilings will also lower to at least low MVFR along with MVFR
visibilities. IFR ceilings are also possible but most likely this
morning at KCOU and to a lesser degree KUIN. Winds will stay out
of the NW through the period at KCOU and KUIN behind the cold
front and should swing to the NW at the metro terminals by early
afternoon. Rain chances will be east of the terminals by late this
afternoon with improving conditions. For tonight...skies should
clear from west to east.
Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front should move through by early afternoon with light rain
moving in from the west shortly thereafter. Period of about 3
hours of rain along with MVFR visibilities/ceilings. Conditions
will improve by evening after the rain moves out of the area.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 66 39 62 42 / 90 5 0 0
Quincy 47 31 60 40 / 90 5 0 0
Columbia 46 31 64 41 / 80 5 0 0
Jefferson City 48 31 65 40 / 90 5 0 0
Salem 70 39 60 40 / 60 20 0 0
Farmington 65 35 62 38 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
433 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
433 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
433 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
The second wave of the weekend is currently working its way across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this morning. A band of
precipitation has developed out ahead of this wave along an area of
decent frontogenetic forcing along both the 850 and 700 mb levels.
The area of precipitation has been tricky to forecast with some
lighter radar echoes reporting light snow, but heavy echo reporting
moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface temperatures continue to remain
in the low to mid 30s along this line of precipitation extending
from north-central Oklahoma on up to north-central Missouri. Across
the local area temperatures continue to remain in the mid 30s with
low 40s not too far to the south of the main precip band. Bufkit
soundings initially showing a significant warm nose gradually
cooling until the column saturates just below freezing from about
700 mb down with surface temperatures just above freezing. Given the
tricky temperature profile; rain, snow, a rain-snow mix, and even a
bit of sleet are all possible this morning. Snowfall accumulations
will be minimal with a tenth of two possibly accumulating on grassy
surfaces. Rainfall totals reported early this morning indicate very
efficient rain producers for those areas located under some of the
heavier precipitation bands. Snowfall chances will come to an end
later this morning as temperatures begin to rise.
The beginning of the work week will be chilly with Monday morning
temperatures dropping back down below freezing. A light frost is
possible. Heightened fire concerns Monday as RH values drop into the
20 to 30 percent range under southerly winds; however, winds look to
stay below critical levels attm but will need to be monitored. A
warming trend will start and extend through mid-week as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. To the west, a longwave trough will
move onshore and begin to deepen as it translates towards the Great
Basin. A slight chance for rain showers and maybe a few isolated
t-storms across northwest Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning
as isentropic lift increases across Kansas and Nebraska. Another
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
initial wave from western trough ejects onto the Plains. The
associated Pacific cold front is progged to move through the region
by Wednesday afternoon. Main concern with the mid-week system will
be the potential for strong to severe storms. The end of the week
looks to remain near normal temperature-wise with daytime highs in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
331 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Area of frontogenetically-driven rain will slowly slide
southeastward through the early morning hours reaching portions of
central and northeastern Missouri by mid/late morning and to the St.
Louis metro area by early afternoon. The timing of this area of
rain is several hours slower than previous forecast due to slower
fropa through the CWA.
The slower passage of the cold front will also allow temperatures to
warmup more than previously expected with a tight temperature
gradient from northwest to southeast. Across northwestern sections
of the area...highs will only be in the 40s due to copious amounts
of cloud cover and rainfall. However...for portions of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois...am expecting highs to near 70
degrees as fropa is not expected there until late afternoon. For
these areas...enough instability will likely materialize for
isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Could be an isolated strong/severe storm or two but
better chances further southeast of CWA.
Will be a lingering threat of light rain for portions of south-
central Illinois early this evening but conditions should quickly
dry out. Cloud cover will decrease overnight tonight as well.
Combine that with winds diminishing with approach of sfc
ridge...could be a good setup for radiational cooling and frost
development late tonight. Forecast lows tonight generally west of
the Mississippi River are expected to be in the 30-35 degree range
so a light freeze is possible. Will hold off on any headlines for
now and let dayshift decipher which (if any) frost/freeze headlines
are warranted. Timing of clearing skies and sfc ridge will be the
key factors.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Surface ridge will be over region Monday with dry and warmer
weather for the first part of the work week. By Tuesday surface
ridge will be to our east, so winds will be out of the south with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, low level moisture will be on the increase ahead of
next weather system. So showers and a few thunderstorms to develop
and spread northward across the area on Wednesday. The best chances
of precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon and evening as
strong cold front slides through region. Some differences in timing
among the extended models, so kept low chance mention through
Thursday, before tapering off.
As for temperatures, Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Then colder air to filter in with highs
near normal by Friday, in the 50s.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
A cold front extending from a surface low over northwestern IA
south to near COU, then southwest through JLN will move slowly
southeastward through the taf sites late tonight and Sunday.
Showers are expected to move into UIN and COU Sunday morning and
into the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon ahead of an upper
level disturbance which will move east-northeastward through MO
Sunday afternoon and induce a weak surface wave along the cold
front. Low level clouds will advect into UIN and COU late tonight
and into the St Louis metro area Sunday morning. The ceiling
height will drop to around 1000-2000 feet in UIN and COU Sunday
morning and in the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon. Sely
surface wind will veer around to a nwly direction late tonight
in UIN as they have already in COU, and in the St Louis metro
area late Sunday morning after fropa. The showers will shift east
of the taf sites by early Sunday evening with cloud ceiling rising
to VFR conditions Sunday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds will advect into the STL area
Sunday morning, then the cloud ceiling will lower to around
1000-2000 feet Sunday afternoon with showers as well Sunday
afternoon. The cloud ceiling will rise back into the VFR category
Sunday evening. Sely surface wind will veer around to a nwly
direction late Sunday morning after fropa.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 65 39 62 42 / 90 5 0 0
Quincy 47 31 60 40 / 90 5 0 0
Columbia 46 31 64 41 / 90 5 0 0
Jefferson City 47 31 65 40 / 90 5 0 0
Salem 69 39 60 40 / 60 20 0 0
Farmington 63 35 62 38 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A quick moving storm system will bring lowering ceilings to the
region late tonight and Sunday morning. MVFR is very likely with
some scattered IFR potential. The best potential for IFR will be
around Joplin and Springfield. A band of rain showers will also
push through the area with a reduction to MVFR possible. Skies
will then quickly clear in the afternoon with VFR returning by
late afternoon.
Winds will be somewhat brisk and gusty out of the northwest on
Sunday but will quickly diminish by evening.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from northeast to
southwest and this will continue to push through the area, clearing
south central Missouri this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers were
breaking out across Kansas ahead of another shortwave trough, with
snow on the back edge across south central Kansas. As the wave
progresses eastward, showers will continue to expand into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri and then overspread much of the area the
rest of the day. As the colder air overspreads the area, will have
to watch areas north and west of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to
Warsaw Missouri line for the possibility of a few flakes of snow
mixing in as the temperature drops into the mid and upper 30s his
morning. Forcing exits rather quickly this afternoon which will
end the rain from west to east with skies clearing rather quickly.
The eastern Ozarks will be last to see rain end and clearing,
which may come more towards evening. Temperatures will be rather
tricky today as the colder air fills in behind the front. Daytime
readings will struggle to make it out of the 40s in most areas,
with south central Missouri rising into the upper 50s to lower 60sby
midday, with falling temperatures then during the remainder of the
afternoon.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight setting the stage
for a cold night. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to approach the freezing mark and thus have added
areas of frost to the grids. Confidence not high that we will see
cold enough temperatures for long enough to justify a hard freeze,
thus will allow day shift to peruse the latest data for possible
headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
As the surface high slides east Monday and Tuesday return flow on
its back side will push temperatures up into the 60s Monday afternoon
and perhaps the lower 70s Tuesday. Increasing pressure gradient on
Tuesday will produce breezy conditions leading to a heightened fire
weather concern, despite increasing dew points as moisture begins
to advect northward.
Moisture will continue to feed northward ahead of a rather vigorous
storm system on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough moves across
the plains into the Midwest. There still remains some model
differences on the speed of this system, with the GFS the more
progressive sweeping the surface cold front through the region
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, shear and
instability looks to be sufficient for organized storms and thus
an elevated severe storm threat. Still a lot of time to hash out
the details, but something to keep an eye on. overall confidence
is medium.
Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front with perhaps some
lingering showers on Thursday. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday look
to be dry with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A quick moving storm system will bring lowering ceilings to the
region late tonight and Sunday morning. MVFR is very likely with
some scattered IFR potential. The best potential for IFR will be
around Joplin and Springfield. A band of rain showers will also
push through the area with a reduction to MVFR possible. Skies
will then quickly clear in the afternoon with VFR returning by
late afternoon.
Winds will be somewhat brisk and gusty out of the northwest on
Sunday but will quickly diminish by evening.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
It was another nice day across southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Under a mix of sun and clouds, temperatures warmed into
the 60s.
A cold front was positioned across the Kansas Flint Hills. This
feature will approach the region, and force a chilly rainfall
along and north of this feature late tonight and into Sunday.
Most locations on Sunday will experience measurable precipitation.
Although, this episode of rain will be short-lived. A speed max
located over northern New Mexico will drive this rain east of the
Ozarks by Sunday evening.
With skies clearing and winds becoming light and variable,
temperatures Sunday night will fall below freezing in many areas.
The eastern Ozarks may stay above freezing.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
A warming trend is expected Monday through Wednesday as an upper
level ridge of high pressure translates across the nations mid
section.
Temperatures by Tuesday afternoon will be well into the 70s.
Tuesday will be a fantastic day for outdoor activities.
Meanwhile, an intense storm system will be brewing out to the
west. This will pull Gulf moisture into the Ozarks, and set the
stage for an episode of severe storms during the day on Wednesday.
Regarding Wednesday, both the GFS and ECMWF have been consistent
with timing thunderstorm development during the daytime, which
would allow for more destabilization. Shear looks pretty strong
with this system.
Given this cape - shear signal, we will begin to mention an
expectation for severe thunderstorms.
After Wednesday we will need to watch for the risk of cold air and
freeze possibilities.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
A quick moving storm system will bring lowering ceilings to the
region late tonight and Sunday morning. MVFR is very likely with
some scattered IFR potential. The best potential for IFR will be
around Joplin and Springfield. A band of rain showers will also
push through the area with a reduction to MVFR possible. Skies
will then quickly clear in the afternoon with VFR returning by
late afternoon.
Winds will be somewhat brisk and gusty out of the northwest on
Sunday but will quickly diminish by evening.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 405 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
Leading shortwave trough, that brought rain this morning into the
early afternoon, is quickly moving to our northeast taking the
lingering rain with it. However, for tonight and Sunday we will be
watching another shortwave trough, currently swinging through
Colorado, as it moves through the Southern and Central Plains on its
way east up the Ohio River Valley late Sunday. Model runs continue
to advertise another decent round of light to moderate rain with the
secondary trough, though complicating the issue is the cold air
surging south behind a cold front that the leading shortwave trough
is pushing through the forecast region today. This will provide an
opportunity for some snow sunday morning.
For Tonight and Sunday...light rain associated with a passing
shortwave is exiting the area this afternoon, and with a little
clearing of the clouds across central and northeast Missouri,
temperatures have responded in those areas by jumping into the 60s
ahead of a weak cold front, that is currently starting to sweep
across Missouri. The slight clearing behind the cold front will give
us a break in activity, but we still expect the secondary trough to
induce more lift as the axis swings across the Plains tonight. Model
runs continue to limit the precipitation shield to areas broadly
around and south of I-35 as that is where the better upper level
dynamics are. As mentioned, the dropping temperatures overnight will
complicate issues as precipitation type will likely come into play.
Model sounds indicate there is a window for some snow as the air
column cools and the precipitation develops across the eastern
Kansas and far western Missouri. However, models seem a little
aggressive with the snow and advertised accumulations given surface
temperatures that are expected to remain above freezing through the
event. But, given the temperature regime we will be in, expect a mix
of precipitation types early through mid Sunday morning. Will limit
the mention of precipitation types to rain or snow, but concede that
some reports of sleet might work in early Sunday morning. Otherwise,
there is a very small chance that some of the snow will stick to
grassy areas during the cool morning hours, but any snow that does
fall wont amount to much and will quickly melt. Ultimately, this all
boils down to a cool wet forecast for Sunday morning.
Monday into the work week...conditions will begin to rebound with a
return of warmer Spring temperatures as a large West Coast trough
forces a shortwave ridge across the Plains through mid-week.
However, that West Coast trough, and another in the northern stream,
will eventually eject through the Plains Tuesday through Thursday,
likely resulting in a large storm event across the region with severe
thunderstorms possible. This will leave temperatures in the 60s and
70s Monday through Wednesday, dropping back into the 50s Thursday on
as cool air sweeps in behind the mid-work-week storm system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MVFR ceilings have moved in and while there may be a small break in
them before the main storm system approaches... it looks likely that
the ceilings are where they`ll be for much of this morning and early
afternoon. During the heaviest periods of precipitation... which
still looks like a mix of rain and snow... ceilings and/or
visibilities may drop to IFR for a few hours. Conditions should
quickly improve by this afternoon as the system moves away with clear
skies expected by late afternoon and then overnight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1119 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
Made some updates to PoPs for the rest of the night...primarily
out over central and northeast Missouri to match up better with
latest short-range guidance. Up until the 01Z run, the RAP was
printing out some light QPF in those areas in the warm advection
ahead of the cold front...but this latest run has dried up. HRRR
still develops a few sprinkles as does the new NAM. Have kept some
low chance/slight chance PoPs for this evening over central and
northeast Missouri, but did end up pairing it back from what the
day shift gave me. Gradually ramped up PoPs after 06Z tonight toward
likely by 11-12Z.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
Early afternoon water vapor imagery depicted one shortwave lifting
away from the region and another shortwave lurking upstream, leading
to an expectation of continued benign conditions through the evening
hours. The upstream shortwave will push a cold front into the region
overnight and tomorrow. The timing and placement of large-scale
ascent, moisture, and frontogenetical forcing suggests that the
majority of pcpn should be post-frontal. This means that an area of
rain should develop and move into the western CWA either late
tonight or early tomorrow morning, depending on how quickly the cold
front progresses southeastward. A few models depicted an elongated
area of weak H85-H7 moisture convergence stretching into the CWA
after 09z, but elevated thunderstorms seem unlikely attm given the
low values of MUCAPE.
Overnight lows should be warmer than last night due to a warmer
start to the day, increasing clouds overnight, and persistent
southeasterly to southerly flow ahead of the front.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Still looks like Sunday will be wet as trough now over the central
High Plains will move east into the western Missouri by midday
tomorrow. Low level moisture convergence will increase under the
mid level ascent across central and northeast Missouri early
tomorrow morning that will spread east across the area during the
day. Have increased to categorical PoPs given the strength of the
forcing. Still looks like the speed the the trough will cause the
rain showers to move out of the area by early evening.
Then a ridge will build into the area quickly behind the trough
allowing Monday and Tuesday to be dry. Will need to watch for
frost on Monday night where temperatures drop into the lower to
mid 30s and skies will be clear with light winds. Temperatures
will climb back above normal by Tuesday as winds turn back out of
the south.
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Models have not shown much change from yesterday with a deep upper
low over the western CONUS early on Wednesday and an upper ridge
to the east. Still looks like there will be a chance of showers
and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Wednesday night as both models
are showing some amount of CAPE ahead of the cold front. The GFS
is quicker to move an upper trough that is the result of the
phasing of the northern part of the aforementioned upper low and a
trough moving southeast out of Canada across our area on Thursday.
This contrasts with the ECMWF which does not show as much phasing
and lets the Canadian trough move eastward. The GFS has it`s
attendant cold front pass through the CWA on Wednesday night
whereas the ECMWF is about 12 hours slower; it passes through on
Thursday morning. Consequently the ECMWF would allow precipitation
to linger over the area longer on Thursday compared to the GFS
which would be dry. Will hold onto the rain chances into Thursday
per the ECMWF because of this before going dry on Friday and
Saturday when a surface ridge will move into the area.
Temperatures on Wednesday still look above normal with 850mb
temperatures around +10C, but then should fall back near or below
normal behind the cold front.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
A cold front extending from a surface low over northwestern IA
south to near COU, then southwest through JLN will move slowly
southeastward through the taf sites late tonight and Sunday.
Showers are expected to move into UIN and COU Sunday morning and
into the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon ahead of an upper
level disturbance which will move east-northeastward through MO
Sunday afternoon and induce a weak surface wave along the cold
front. Low level clouds will advect into UIN and COU late tonight
and into the St Louis metro area Sunday morning. The ceiling
height will drop to around 1000-2000 feet in UIN and COU Sunday
morning and in the St Louis metro area Sunday afternoon. Sely
surface wind will veer around to a nwly direction late tonight
in UIN as they have already in COU, and in the St Louis metro
area late Sunday morning after fropa. The showers will shift east
of the taf sites by early Sunday evening with cloud ceiling rising
to VFR conditions Sunday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds will advect into the STL area
Sunday morning, then the cloud ceiling will lower to around
1000-2000 feet Sunday afternoon with showers as well Sunday
afternoon. The cloud ceiling will rise back into the VFR catagory
Sunday evening. Sely surface wind will veer around to a nwly
direction late Sunday morning after fropa.
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
944 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MAIN UPDATES INVOLVE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES/RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
USED THE HRRR FOR RH TODAY GIVING UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTHWEST.
WITHOUT WIND THE FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE TODAY
BUT VERY LOW RH CONTINUES TO BE A COMMON CHARACTERISTIC LATELY.
RADARS FROM KBIS/KABR/KMVX SHOW VIRGA FROM MID LEVEL ACCAS. THIS
WILL MOVE EAST. SHALLOW COOL MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL BETWEEN TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND WESTHOPE. WILL LOWER MAX
TEMPS AND INCREASE CLOUDS FAR NORTH CENTRAL TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A WEAK TROUGH.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AND ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A PLEASANT EASTER IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN THE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE DOWN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
AFTERNOON READINGS WILL APPROACH 20 PERCENT. THIS NORMALLY WOULD
CAUSE SOME FIRE CONCERN...HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
TUESDAY A STRONG STORM TAKES AIM ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS MODELS DIFFER ON STORM TRACK AND INTENSITY. FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE PICTURE IS TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST INDICATION IS
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.
THIS TRANSITION TO RAIN WOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND LEAD TO MELTING OF ALREADY ACCUMULATED SNOW.
WHAT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN IS MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR RATHER
WINDY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
614 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Rain chances will remain confined to the NE OK sites this morning
and will be handled with tempo groups. Thunder chances remain too
low for TAF inclusion. Cigs may also lower to MVFR categories
briefly this morning across NE OK. Elsewhere...VFR conditions
will prevail...with skies clearing by late afternoon across the AR
sites.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the area early
this morning, with most of the rain after sunrise being confined
to northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Will keep all
precipitation liquid, although the HRRR says it will be a close
call in the northwest corner of the forecast area. Skies will
clear rapidly this afternoon allowing temperatures to warm into
the 50s.
A cold night is on tap tonight as surface high pressure resides
over the area, and most places will droip to near or below
freezing. Thus, will issue a freeze warning for all but far
southeast Oklahoma from midnight until 9 am Monday.
Increasing southerly winds will result in warmer temperatures
Monday through Wednesday. The next storm system will bring
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night
into Wednesday night, with southeast parts of the forecast area
seeing the greatest coverage and amounts of rainfall.
Dry weather with seasonable temperatures will then prevail late
this week into the weekend. The models have backed off on the
southwest progression of a cold arctic airmass late next weekend
and will await later data to see if this trend continues.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
OKZ049-054>076.
AR...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
&&
$$
AVIATION...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
900 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING MARITIME AIR INTO THE STATE...WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION...WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY. FAIR BUT COOLER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MID WEEK...AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN STORE FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS THICK WHERE THEY ARE BUT ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME GOING
ANY FARTHER TO THE WEST. A LITTLE DZ DOWN IN THE LOWER SUSQ. THEY
HAVE BEGUN TO SPILL OVER MT NITTANY AND NOW COVER MORE THAN HALF
THE SKY LOCALLY. HOWEVER...FLOW IS SLATED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
IN THE CLOUD LAYER THROUGH THE DAY AND SOME MIXING - ESP ON THE
EDGES OF THE CLOUD DECK AND IN THE SOUTH WHERE HOLES EXIST.
THUS...THE MIXING AND HIGH MOISTURE MAY STILL LIFT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MAKE 20-30PCT COVG CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS AFTN.
PREV...
HRRR 925 MB RH DEPICTING ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING...AS LOW CIGS BACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER
VALLEY TOWARDS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS CLOUD COVER REMAINING CONSTANT IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD FROM MD/VA AND WILL BRUSH MY SOUTHERN ZONES
THIS MORNING.
MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN SUBDUED TEMPERATURE CURVES AS
HIGHS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL BE SOME 6 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY CREST. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WITHIN THE MARITIME REGIME BUT IT APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH...A NICER DAY IS IN STORE FROM THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. BEST CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
60S..WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF CENTRAL PA ONLY SEES MID 50S FOR
HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS ENE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND DIRECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW WILL
BE SPAWNED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. BOTH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON MONDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN
THE FRESHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND RANGE THROUGH THE 40S. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER SOME WET WEATHER ON MONDAY...AND COOLER WEATHER AGAIN ON
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE MARCH. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS COULD RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND. SOME SHOWERS LATER
THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
WILL KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE WEST...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS IN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS.
FOR WED INTO THU...EDGE TEMPERATURES UP SOME...GIVEN STRONG
SW FLOW. TENDENCY THIS SEASON IS FOR FORECAST TEMPERATURES
TO BE A LITTLE TOO COOL.
DID CUT BACK ON POPS SOME PRIOR TO THU NIGHT. BASED ON EC MODEL
AND PATTERN FCST.
VERY DEEP COLD AIRMASS COULD WORK INTO THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT.
USED THE SUPERBLEND BUT DID ADJUST SOME TO FIT IN WITH OTHERS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE SE AS E/SE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR OVER THE SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH MVFR CIGS AT 12Z REACHING KIPT-KSEG AND ON THE
DOORSTEP OF KUNV /WE CAN SEE THE DECK CREEPING OUR WAY OUT THE
WINDOW/. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP SLOWLY ADVANCING TO THE NORTH AND
WEST TODAY...WITH WESTERN TERMINALS REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE
MORNING AT KJST AND THROUGH LATE DAY AT KBFD.
AS THE DAY WEARS ON...MIXING IS EXPECTED TO ATTEMPT TO RAISE THE
CIGS A BIT WHICH SHOULD BRING THE LOWER SUSQ UP TO MVFR AND
CENTRAL MTNS NEARING VFR CIG FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...IT
COULD ALSO RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA IN THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY.
BY THIS EVENING...CIGS WILL AGAIN BE LOWERING AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS WILL SETTLE INTO WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN.
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY /WITH PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA/. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD TO
START THE DAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SE HALF AS DAY
PROGRESSES. CIG RESTRICTIONS DO LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
NORTH AND WEST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...CFROPA AM. SHOWERS EARLY. RESTRICTIONS PERSIST NORTHWEST.
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON SE. BREEZY NW WIND.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
751 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING MARITIME AIR INTO THE STATE...WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION...WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY. FAIR BUT COOLER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MID WEEK...AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN STORE FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HRRR 925 MB RH DEPICTING ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING...AS LOW CIGS BACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER
VALLEY TOWARDS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS CLOUD COVER REMAINING CONSTANT IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD FROM MD/VA AND WILL BRUSH MY SOUTHERN ZONES
THIS MORNING.
MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN SUBDUED TEMPERATURE CURVES AS
HIGHS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL BE SOME 6 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY CREST. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WITHIN THE MARITIME REGIME BUT IT APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH...A NICER DAY IS IN STORE FROM THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. BEST CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
60S..WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF CENTRAL PA ONLY SEES MID 50S FOR
HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS ENE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND DIRECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW WILL
BE SPAWNED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. BOTH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON MONDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN
THE FRESHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND RANGE THROUGH THE 40S. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER SOME WET WEATHER ON MONDAY...AND COOLER WEATHER AGAIN ON
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE MARCH. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS COULD RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND. SOME SHOWERS LATER
THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
WILL KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE WEST...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS IN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS.
FOR WED INTO THU...EDGE TEMPERATURES UP SOME...GIVEN STRONG
SW FLOW. TENDENCY THIS SEASON IS FOR FORECAST TEMPERATURES
TO BE A LITTLE TOO COOL.
DID CUT BACK ON POPS SOME PRIOR TO THU NIGHT. BASED ON EC MODEL
AND PATTERN FCST.
VERY DEEP COLD AIRMASS COULD WORK INTO THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT.
USED THE SUPERBLEND BUT DID ADJUST SOME TO FIT IN WITH OTHERS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE SE AS E/SE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR OVER THE SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH MVFR CIGS AT 12Z REACHING KIPT-KSEG AND ON THE
DOORSTEP OF KUNV /WE CAN SEE THE DECK CREEPING OUR WAY OUT THE
WINDOW/. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP SLOWLY ADVANCING TO THE NORTH AND
WEST TODAY...WITH WESTERN TERMINALS REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE
MORNING AT KJST AND THROUGH LATE DAY AT KBFD.
AS THE DAY WEARS ON...MIXING IS EXPECTED TO ATTEMPT TO RAISE THE
CIGS A BIT WHICH SHOULD BRING THE LOWER SUSQ UP TO MVFR AND
CENTRAL MTNS NEARING VFR CIG FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...IT
COULD ALSO RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA IN THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY.
BY THIS EVENING...CIGS WILL AGAIN BE LOWERING AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS WILL SETTLE INTO WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN.
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY /WITH PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA/. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD TO
START THE DAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SE HALF AS DAY
PROGRESSES. CIG RESTRICTIONS DO LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
NORTH AND WEST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...CFROPA AM. SHOWERS EARLY. RESTRICTIONS PERSIST NORTHWEST.
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON SE. BREEZY NW WIND.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/TYBURSKI
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
849 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS/
NEAR SFC SATURATION AND DRY ALOFT PER VARIOUS LAPS ANALYSIS
AND HRRR DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS/LGT OR CALM WIND IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL NOON BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING
OF THE FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...COMBO OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS THIS MRNG.
IMPROVEMENT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN AROUND AND AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR
BY 18Z AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. LIGHT -DZ REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 18Z-24Z...BUT REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN TAFS. N-LY WIND 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTN
AND EARLY EVNG...WITH DECOUPLING HAPPENING TOWARD 03Z MONDAY.
SKIES WILL BRIEFLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT A RETURN OF 3500 FEET
STRATUS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LONG AWAITED FRONT IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY FROM
DALLAS TO SAN ANGELO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
MORNING...REACHING SOUTH TEXAS MID-LATE MORNING TODAY. THICK CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING. WARM MOIST AIR
RIDING OVER RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL BE ABLE TO RESULT
IN DENSE FOG ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVER LAND...THE THICK CLOUD COVER
APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING THE LOWER VISIBILITIES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION NEAR BEEVILLE IN THE LOWER LYING AREA SPOTS...SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE AREA MAY ALSO SUPPORT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. HRRR
AND TEXAS TECH PRECIP MODELS ALONG WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
A DRIER PERIOD BETWEEN SUNRISE AND THE NOON HOUR...ONLY TO PICK UP
SPOTTY SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW A STRONG CAP
OVER THE REGION...AND MOISTURE REMAINING LIMITED TO NEAR 1 INCH AT
TIMES...HAVE REMOVED 20 PERCENT POPS...YET LEFT IN WORDING FOR
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S AS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN PICK UP ONCE
AGAIN EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SECOND PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
BY TONIGHT...CLEARING AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE TONIGHT AS LOWS DIP INTO
THE 50S...WITH LOWER 50S TOWARD THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MONDAY...TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
MARINE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH 10 AM. WARM MOIST AIR WILL RIDE OVER COOL
SHELF WATERS LEADING TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TODAY. IMPROVEMENTS TO VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS
AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG-
TERM IS HOW TO HANDLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WHERE THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...BEFORE GOING
INTO THAT WILL FIRST DISCUSS THE EARLIER PERIODS WHERE THINGS
REMAIN A BIT MORE STRAIGHT-FORWARD.
MOISTURE COMES BACK NICELY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND SOME WEAK ENERGY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED
SOMEWHAT SO MAY ONLY SEE SHOWERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON DRYING
THINGS OUT LATE WEDNESDAY AND KEEP IT DRY ON THURSDAY...AND IT STILL
LOOKS TO BE WARM THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE WARM AS WELL IF DRIER
AIR GETS IN HERE FAST ENOUGH...AS 850MB TEMPERATURES 00Z THURSDAY
GET RATHER WARM. AM GOING WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL
MAY ONLY BE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE DAY (ANYWAY...RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE
EASTERN AREAS ONLY ON WEDNESDAY).
AFTER THAT...THINGS GET RATHER COMPLICATED...ACTUALLY STARTING ON
THURSDAY. GFS IS DEVELOPING A MORE POTENT SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND HAS A SLIGHT WIND
SHIFT. ECMWF BRINGS A BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH BETTER
MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN GFS IS SHOWING (GFS IS KEEPING BEST MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTH GIVEN STRONGER SURFACE PATTERN). ECMWF THEN BRINGS THE
MAIN PART OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME
(WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE THEN)...WHILE GFS IS MORE ON THE SATURDAY
NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME FRAME (WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AT THIS TIME).
THUS...QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE MOISTURE FIELDS BETWEEN THE TWO
MODELS (EACH OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER). AFTER DISCUSSING THINGS
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO
ADJUST THE FORECAST ONCE THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE FORECAST
MODELS (NEW DAY 8/SUNDAY GRIDS HAVE 20 POPS AS WELL BUT GHOST 10S
SUNDAY NIGHT). DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...DID NOT SWAY
TOO FAR FROM THE SUPERBLEND CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND MOST OTHER
PARAMETERS...ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE SKY COVER TOWARD THE WEEKEND
WHERE RAIN CHANCES WERE MENTIONED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 59 75 66 79 / 10 10 10 10 30
VICTORIA 80 51 75 61 78 / 10 0 10 20 30
LAREDO 82 59 80 64 86 / 10 10 0 10 10
ALICE 81 56 78 63 83 / 10 10 0 10 30
ROCKPORT 77 57 74 65 77 / 10 10 10 20 30
COTULLA 82 56 78 62 83 / 10 0 0 10 20
KINGSVILLE 82 58 76 65 82 / 10 10 10 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 78 60 72 67 76 / 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...
KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS
AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
955 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT WITH
OVERALL DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VISIBILITIES WERE GRADUALLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SOME THIS SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. EXPECTING A SHARP
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE AREAS IN THE FAR WEST
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LOWERED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST. ALSO CUT
BACK POPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
REGION.
LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NE...ESPCLY IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BASICALLY LOCK
IN LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPCLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS MOST MEASURABLE RAINFALL PER
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
THE IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR WEST DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT BEFORE MIXING OUT
ESPCLY FAR WEST GIVEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST MODEL
STABILITY INDICES INDICATE A SHARP GRADIENT NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE WEST. THUS PLAN
TO HAVE LITTLE POP ACROSS FAR SW VA INTO SE WEST VA WHERE SHOULD PUNCH
INTO THE 60S...WHILE TRENDING MORE CHANCE COVERAGE ELSEWHERE AFTER 12Z
FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY -RA/DZ WHICH MAY STILL BE OVERDONE.
OTRW CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA GIVEN
SUCH WARMTH ALOFT OVER A DEEP LATE MARCH WEDGE THAT COULD SCOUR SOME
TOWARD THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE LATER ON. HOWEVER THINK CLOUDS WILL
HOLD OVER THE EAST WHERE WILL TRIM HIGHS BACK MORE INTO THE
50S...WHILE KEEPING VALUES CLOSER TO 60 FAR SE AND NEW RIVER
VALLEY SECTIONS.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE EXITING EASTERN VA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ENHANCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
REGION SLIPS IN BETWEEN LIFT TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE. WEDGE WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING
FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH ANY INSTABILITY QUITE WEAK AND
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME SOLUTIONS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL SE FLOW AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DO COMBO A SWATH OF SHOWERS INTO THE ONGOING
UPSLOPE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THE WAVE. THUS HAVE EXPANDED
LIKELY POPS NE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING WITH A LINGERING
AXIS OF CATEGORICAL BEFORE DIMINISHING TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT TO THE NW SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE WEST NEAR
DAYBREAK BUT GIVEN MOST DYNAMICS NORTH AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
COULD EASILY SEE COVERAGE WEAKEN. THEREFORE ONLY UPPING POPS BACK
TO LOW LIKELYS FAR NW AROUND DAWN BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION FOR RESIDUAL CONVECTION PUSHING EAST. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH RISES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE CAD
STARTS TO WEAKEN AND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT SUNDAY...
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS (NORTHERN STREAM-OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN STREAM-OFF THE
VA/NC COAST) TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING ALONG WESTERN
GREENBRIER. PRESSURE RISES AND A +40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. INVERSION DEVELOPS MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TO KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY AS COLD AIR
PUSHING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN
THE MID 50S ALONG WESTERN SLOPES TO NEAR 60F TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL HELP THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES WARM INTO THE LOWER
70S.
DESPITE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING
MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TO GO BELOW FREEZING WITH AMPLE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS EAST COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE RIDGES WARMER THAN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
TYPICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS OPENING UP
THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVING IT FASTER EAST. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEP
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS SEPARATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL BE TRENDING TO THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND WPC FORECAST.
THIS MOVES THE 500 MB RIDGE OFF SHORE BY FRIDAY AND DIG A DEEP
NORTHERN STREAM TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.
EXPECTING GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND +12.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY PROLONG THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND HOLD CLOUDS IN
THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT SUNDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ESPCLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN A
PERSISTENT WEDGE AIDED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND LIGHT PRECIP. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ESPCLY
AROUND KBCB AND KDAN. MOST RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN KDAN/KLYH AND POINTS EAST WITH OCNL MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN RAIN/SHOWERS. ALSO PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING MAKING FOR ADDED MVFR
VSBYS. EDGE OF THE LOWER CIGS LIKELY ALONG THE KLWB-KBLF CORRIDOR
WHERE KLWB MAY OSCILLATE BETWEEN IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING BEFORE
POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CONFIDENCE
AT KBLF WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS VIA DOWNSLOPING ALLOWING
MOSTLY VFR CIGS TODAY AND LITTLE THREAT OF FOG OR DRIZZLE.
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER TODAY BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ALTHOUGH BEST SUPPORT LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS DURING THE EVENING. THUS PLAN TO SLOWLY TRANSITION GOING
STRATIFORM -DZ OVER TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE DURING THE EVENING
BUT WITHOUT THUNDER MENTION ATTM AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO LIFT OUT.
WINDS MOSTLY EAST 5-8 KTS THIS MORNING...VEERING SE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE AROUND KBLF DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BY LATE TONIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH BREEZY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE DELAYED EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WEST VA WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS/RCS
AVIATION...JH/PC/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
710 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT WITH
OVERALL DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT SUNDAY...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NE...ESPCLY IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BASICALLY LOCK
IN LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPCLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS MOST MEASURABLE RAINFALL PER
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
THE IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR WEST DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT BEFORE MIXING OUT
ESPCLY FAR WEST GIVEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST MODEL
STABILITY INDICES INDICATE A SHARP GRADIENT NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE WEST. THUS PLAN
TO HAVE LITTLE POP ACROSS FAR SW VA INTO SE WEST VA WHERE SHOULD PUNCH
INTO THE 60S...WHILE TRENDING MORE CHANCE COVERAGE ELSEWHERE AFTER 12Z
FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY -RA/DZ WHICH MAY STILL BE OVERDONE.
OTRW CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA GIVEN
SUCH WARMTH ALOFT OVER A DEEP LATE MARCH WEDGE THAT COULD SCOUR SOME
TOWARD THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE LATER ON. HOWEVER THINK CLOUDS WILL
HOLD OVER THE EAST WHERE WILL TRIM HIGHS BACK MORE INTO THE
50S...WHILE KEEPING VALUES CLOSER TO 60 FAR SE AND NEW RIVER
VALLEY SECTIONS.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE EXITING EASTERN VA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ENHANCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
REGION SLIPS IN BETWEEN LIFT TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE. WEDGE WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING
FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH ANY INSTABILITY QUITE WEAK AND
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME SOLUTIONS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL SE FLOW AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DO COMBO A SWATH OF SHOWERS INTO THE ONGOING
UPSLOPE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THE WAVE. THUS HAVE EXPANDED
LIKELY POPS NE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING WITH A LINGERING
AXIS OF CATEGORICAL BEFORE DIMINISHING TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT TO THE NW SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE WEST NEAR
DAYBREAK BUT GIVEN MOST DYNAMICS NORTH AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
COULD EASILY SEE COVERAGE WEAKEN. THEREFORE ONLY UPPING POPS BACK
TO LOW LIKELYS FAR NW AROUND DAWN BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION FOR RESIDUAL CONVECTION PUSHING EAST. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH RISES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE CAD
STARTS TO WEAKEN AND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT SUNDAY...
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS (NORTHERN STREAM-OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN STREAM-OFF THE
VA/NC COAST) TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING ALONG WESTERN
GREENBRIER. PRESSURE RISES AND A +40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. INVERSION DEVELOPS MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TO KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY AS COLD AIR
PUSHING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN
THE MID 50S ALONG WESTERN SLOPES TO NEAR 60F TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL HELP THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES WARM INTO THE LOWER
70S.
DESPITE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING
MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TO GO BELOW FREEZING WITH AMPLE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS EAST COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE RIDGES WARMER THAN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
TYPICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS OPENING UP
THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVING IT FASTER EAST. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEP
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS SEPARATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL BE TRENDING TO THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND WPC FORECAST.
THIS MOVES THE 500 MB RIDGE OFF SHORE BY FRIDAY AND DIG A DEEP
NORTHERN STREAM TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.
EXPECTING GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND +12.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY PROLONG THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND HOLD CLOUDS IN
THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT SUNDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ESPCLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN A
PERSISTENT WEDGE AIDED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND LIGHT PRECIP. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ESPCLY
AROUND KBCB AND KDAN. MOST RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN KDAN/KLYH AND POINTS EAST WITH OCNL MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN RAIN/SHOWERS. ALSO PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING MAKING FOR ADDED MVFR
VSBYS. EDGE OF THE LOWER CIGS LIKELY ALONG THE KLWB-KBLF CORRIDOR
WHERE KLWB MAY OSCILLATE BETWEEN IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING BEFORE
POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CONFIDENCE
AT KBLF WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS VIA DOWNSLOPING ALLOWING
MOSTLY VFR CIGS TODAY AND LITTLE THREAT OF FOG OR DRIZZLE.
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER TODAY BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ALTHOUGH BEST SUPPORT LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS DURING THE EVENING. THUS PLAN TO SLOWLY TRANSITION GOING
STRATIFORM -DZ OVER TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE DURING THE EVENING
BUT WITHOUT THUNDER MENTION ATTM AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO LIFT OUT.
WINDS MOSTLY EAST 5-8 KTS THIS MORNING...VEERING SE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE AROUND KBLF DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BY LATE TONIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH BREEZY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE DELAYED EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WEST VA WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS/RCS
AVIATION...JH/PC/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS LA CROSSE WI
715 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MONITORING THE LIGHT RAIN BAND MOVING NORTHWARD IN AN AREA OF
WEAK-MODERATE 600-800MB DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS. THIS EXTENDS
FROM SWRN MN INTO NC WI PER RAP GUIDANCE...AND MATCHES RADAR
WELL...NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN SC MN AT 07Z. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD GREEN BAY TODAY PER LATEST RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE AND ALLOW THE DEFORMATION FORCING TO CAUSE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TO CONTINUE. RAP HAS BEEN INDICATING A STRENGTHENING OF
THIS FORCING IN THE 12-15Z WINDOW OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
SO...THERE MAYBE BE A BREAK THROUGH SUNRISE...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS
REDEVELOP. IN ANY CASE...WILL SLOWLY PULL RAIN CHANCES EASTWARD
THROUGH MID-DAY FROM A DODGE COUNTY MN TO CLARK COUNTY WI LINE
AND NORTH ANS SYSTEM SHIFTS OUT.
FRONTOGENESIS RAMPS UP FURTHER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN
WEATHER SYSTEM AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ALONG A SW-NE LINE
PASSING THROUGH KDBQ. SHOULD SEE A NEWRD EXPANSE TO THE NARROW
PRECIPITATION BAND NOW NEAR KANSAS CITY. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY IN FAR SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY.
EXPECTING MOST OF THE SYSTEMS WEATHER WILL BE SE OF THE AREA.
WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT...MOIST SOILS...ABOUT
2 KM OF LIGHT WINDS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...HAVE ADDED
SOME PATCHY FOG AREA-WIDE FOR LATER TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
PRETTY QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE IS DOWNSTREAM OF A MAJOR OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN CONUS. THIS IS A WELL AGREED UPON
FEATURE IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND WILL CAUSE SOME TROUBLE
IN PREDICTABILITY MID-WEEK AND BEYOND. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE IS
FAIRLY WELL AGREED ON...DETAILS VARY ON HOW THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH. IN
THE BIGGER PICTURE...SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AND WARMS/MOISTENS
WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THUS...IT COULD BE A
FAIRLY WET PERIOD WITH AN ACTIVE WARM AND COLD FRONT SCENARIO.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHILE PLACED DIFFERENTLY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS... IS IN THE REGION IN THE 26.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...
AND THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON. BOTTOM LINE IS A WET PERIOD THERE
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND.
TOO EARLY TO TELL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT WIND SHEAR WILL
BE FAVORABLE. LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE INSTABILITY/CAP
STRENGTH/CLOUDS...WOULD CHARACTERIZE SEVERE STORM THREAT AS
QUITE MINIMAL NOW. HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A BIT BIGGER THREAT BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN AND SYNOPTICS EVOLVE. 27.00Z GEFS MEAN
QPF IN THE AREA IS AROUND AN INCH.
SPREAD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS PRETTY HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO 1SM OR LESS DUE TO
MIST/FOG LIKELY TO PERSIST AT KRST THROUGH AT LEAST 27.15Z WITH
STRATUS NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 1000 FT AGL UNTIL AFTER
27.18Z. LOW MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME REDUCTION TO AROUND 5SM IN
MIST WILL BE THE RULE AT KLSE THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH ONLY
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON LOW CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK-UP WITH AN EVENTUAL
CLEARING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KRST LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LET LATER FORECASTS ADDRESS
THIS POTENTIAL. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST BY MID-MORNING...MAINTAINING THAT DIRECTIONAL
PREFERENCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
635 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
OVERNIGHT...RAIN OR DRIZZLE WAS REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH... WITH
A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS VILAS COUNTY. TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS MORNING WERE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. THE
COOL SPOT WAS MANITOWOC AT 32 WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOT
ARRIVED. COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR MODEL HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND FOLLOWED THIS
SCENARIO TODAY. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH A LITTLE SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ACROSS VILAS COUNTY DUE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH.
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE MODELS A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND OF RAIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE RAIN WOULD MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS GREEN
BAY AND APPLETON. PER COORDINATION WITH NWS MILWAUKEE...INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED
NATURE IN THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
FELT PRETTY CONFIDENT ON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE 06Z
WRF MODEL SHOVED EAST BY 50 MILES AND WOULD ONLY CLIP MANITOWOC
AND KEWAUNEE COUNTIES. WILL STAY THE COURSE NOW AND PASS ON TO
THE DAY SHIFT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS TO THE SOUTH WOULD LINE UP
THE RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE USING THE
OLD FASHION EYE BALL METHOD. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY 00Z TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW
DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING BY A FEW HOURS. SKIES WILL NOT BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS WINDS
DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE.
LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CLOUDS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ON THE DAY
SHIFT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. PER GFS MODEL...COULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH. DID NOT
INCLUDE THEM AT THIS TIME. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
DURING THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE PASSING ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A SURFACE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION. MODELS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY DURING THIS PERIOD SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED. COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH A
MIX OR SNOW IN THE NORTH. IS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT NIGHT FOR
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...A
COOLING TREND WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ALONG WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTH OF A KTKV TO KIMT LINE. LOW
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO ARRIVE SOUTH OF THE KTKV TO KIMT...ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF KMNM TO KOSH
LINE...RAIN SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. FOR THE FOLLOWING
AIRPORTS...KGRB...KOSH...KSUE...KATW...KMTW SHOULD EXPERIENCE A
BAND OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN WHEN THE RAIN WILL END...AND MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WITH THE NEXT
TAF ISSUANCE FOR KATW...KGRB AND KMTW. LATEST HRRR MODEL WOULD
SUGGEST IT WOULD LAST LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE KCWA
AND KRHI TAFS BETWEEN 08-12Z. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 15-16Z.
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
634 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MONITORING THE LIGHT RAIN BAND MOVING NORTHWARD IN AN AREA OF
WEAK-MODERATE 600-800MB DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS. THIS EXTENDS
FROM SWRN MN INTO NC WI PER RAP GUIDANCE...AND MATCHES RADAR
WELL...NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN SC MN AT 07Z. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD GREEN BAY TODAY PER LATEST RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE AND ALLOW THE DEFORMATION FORCING TO CAUSE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TO CONTINUE. RAP HAS BEEN INDICATING A STRENGTHENING OF
THIS FORCING IN THE 12-15Z WINDOW OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
SO...THERE MAYBE BE A BREAK THROUGH SUNRISE...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS
REDEVELOP. IN ANY CASE...WILL SLOWLY PULL RAIN CHANCES EASTWARD
THROUGH MID-DAY FROM A DODGE COUNTY MN TO CLARK COUNTY WI LINE
AND NORTH ANS SYSTEM SHIFTS OUT.
FRONTOGENESIS RAMPS UP FURTHER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN
WEATHER SYSTEM AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ALONG A SW-NE LINE
PASSING THROUGH KDBQ. SHOULD SEE A NEWRD EXPANSE TO THE NARROW
PRECIPITATION BAND NOW NEAR KANSAS CITY. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY IN FAR SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY.
EXPECTING MOST OF THE SYSTEMS WEATHER WILL BE SE OF THE AREA.
WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT...MOIST SOILS...ABOUT
2 KM OF LIGHT WINDS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...HAVE ADDED
SOME PATCHY FOG AREA-WIDE FOR LATER TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
PRETTY QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE IS DOWNSTREAM OF A MAJOR OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN CONUS. THIS IS A WELL AGREED UPON
FEATURE IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND WILL CAUSE SOME TROUBLE
IN PREDICTABILITY MID-WEEK AND BEYOND. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE IS
FAIRLY WELL AGREED ON...DETAILS VARY ON HOW THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH. IN
THE BIGGER PICTURE...SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AND WARMS/MOISTENS
WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THUS...IT COULD BE A
FAIRLY WET PERIOD WITH AN ACTIVE WARM AND COLD FRONT SCENARIO.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHILE PLACED DIFFERENTLY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS... IS IN THE REGION IN THE 26.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...
AND THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON. BOTTOM LINE IS A WET PERIOD THERE
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND.
TOO EARLY TO TELL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT WIND SHEAR WILL
BE FAVORABLE. LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE INSTABILITY/CAP
STRENGTH/CLOUDS...WOULD CHARACTERIZE SEVERE STORM THREAT AS
QUITE MINIMAL NOW. HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A BIT BIGGER THREAT BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN AND SYNOPTICS EVOLVE. 27.00Z GEFS MEAN
QPF IN THE AREA IS AROUND AN INCH.
SPREAD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS PRETTY HIGH. I THINK THE TAKE AWAY FOR
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO 1SM OR LESS DUE TO
MIST/FOG LIKELY TO PERSIST AT KRST THROUGH AT LEAST 27.15Z WITH
STRATUS NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 1000 FT AGL UNTIL AFTER
27.18Z. LOW MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME REDUCTION TO AROUND 5SM IN
MIST WILL BE THE RULE AT KLSE THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH ONLY
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON LOW CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK-UP WITH AN EVENTUAL
CLEARING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KRST LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LET LATER FORECASTS ADDRESS
THIS POTENTIAL. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST BY MID-MORNING...MAINTAINING THAT DIRECTIONAL
PREFERENCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...ROGERS
...EXTENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION MODIFIED...
TUE-SUN...DRYING IS INDICATED TUE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
CAPE...AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH. THE LATEST GFS STILL SHOWS
A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING WHICH WILL NECESSITATE CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM AND MOVE WELL INLAND ON
TUE. TEMPS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE COLD (MINUS 14-15 CELSIUS AT
500MB) SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH POTENTIALLY LARGE
HAIL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD.
SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL PROVIDE AN ONSHORE
FLOW WED. AN OVERALL MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS INDICATED AS WEAK
RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH THUNDER CHANCES
SHIFTED WELL INLAND STILL LOOK IN ORDER. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON FRI
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE AND RAISE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. BOTH THE 00Z/12Z GFS BRING
POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE THU IN THE NORTH...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA FRI. IF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE REALIZED FRI...RAIN
CHANCES IN THE LIKELY RANGE MAY BECOME NECESSARY. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S.
THE 00Z/12Z GFS MODEL RUNS SHOVE THE NEXT FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BY THE
WEEKEND AND SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING/SLIGHT COOLING. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF IS MORE THAN 24 HOURS SLOWER. HAVE JUST CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. IF THE FRONT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND...TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS OVER THE AREA WITH ISO-SCT CIGS AND VSBY
INTERRUPTED BY SCT PCPN AND A FEW STORMS. EXPECT LCL REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR AND BRIEF IFR THROUGH 28/03Z. CONDS BECMG VFR AFT 28/04Z.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AND ASCD STRATUS CIGS NR
FL006-010 POSSIBLE FM 28/08Z-28/13Z.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS SOUTH 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3
TO 4 FT OFFSHORE. THE PRIMARY OPEN WATER THREAT WL BE OCCASIONAL
COASTAL STORMS MOVING E-NE INTO MONDAY EVENING.
MON NIGHT-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO RETREAT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA MON NIGHT/TUE. SWRLY WINDS WILL
VEER WEST...THEN NW MON OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL MON EVENING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO EASE LATE MON INTO TUE AS
THE FRONTAL TROUGH WEAKENS ACROSS THE WATERS. IT LOOKS DRIER
OVERALL BUT A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STRONG STORMS EXISTS TUE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH IS SHOWN BRIDGING THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUE NIGHT-WED
WITH WINDS FRESHENING OUT OF THE EAST. SMALL SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED BUT MAIN CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE WELL INLAND. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ON THU AND SPEEDS MAY BE
NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH MAY DIP INTO THE
AREA LATE ON FRI WITH AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...INCLUDING
OFFSHORE MOVING CELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 84 63 79 / 40 40 20 20
MCO 73 87 68 84 / 30 50 20 30
MLB 71 86 68 82 / 30 50 30 40
VRB 70 86 68 84 / 30 50 30 40
LEE 73 86 67 84 / 30 40 20 30
SFB 71 85 67 82 / 30 40 20 20
ORL 73 85 68 83 / 30 40 20 30
FPR 70 87 67 84 / 20 50 30 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
500 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
GOES Water Vapor Satellite Imagery continues to show punch of
drier theta-e air arcing northeast with into Southern Illinois and
West Kentucky. The 11.0 and 3.9 micron difference channel also
showing ice cloud generation (glaciation) with line of
thunderstorms over Southern Illinois, along with a second area
over the Southern PennyRile between 4-430 pm CDT. Most of the
Multi-radar Multi-Sensor vertically integrated ice pinpointing
better updrafts in stronger cells. NOAA/CIMMS PRobability of
Severe guidance/graphic also pacing very well with 50%
probability matching very well with sub-severe (Significant
Weather Advisory level) hail between 1/4 and 1/2 inch this
afternoon. HRRR and NAM guidance doing very well with the
location/timing of convection. Majority of the severe potential
convection should exit the eastern part of the WFO PAH forecaste
area (Christian, Todd, Muhlenburg area) between 8 pm and 9 pm CDT
per the HRRR.
The cold front continues to move southeast and was located near a
Fairfield Illinois to Paducah Kentucky line at 430 pm CDT. Surface
wind gusts behind the front will range from 15 to 30 knots for
about an hour or less. Any thunderstorms behind this line will
become more elevated and may be less likely to produce any sub-
severe/severe level hail, as well as thunderstorm generated winds.
Temperatures should drop 20 to 25 degrees within 2 hours of the
frontal passage.
Will update short term grids to reflect timing of temperature
drop, wind, etc...for the rest of this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Cold front is analyzed with westerlies from STL to just west of
UNO. Visible imagery shows dense cloud mass just behind boundary
with radar indicating cold advection post frontal rain across cntl
MO. BINOVC in pre frontal environ over PAH FA, with peaking
afternoon temps in l-m70s and dew points ranging from u50s (west)
to lower 60s (east). The window for convection is short-lived,
from as little as 1-2 hours in our west, to as much as 3-4 hours
in our east. The front will make rapid eastward progression thru
the pm/early evening hours. It will encounter MUCapes supportive
of thunder potential, with temps aloft and steepened lapse rates
supportive of SLGT risk svr, mainly along/east of Lower Ohio River
valley region and across much of WKY. Thunder chances then drop
off markedly/shifting east after 00z and scour entirely after 03z
or 04z. Will continue close weather watch for pm svr potential,
with damaging winds/hail still primary hazards if a svr storm
occurs.
After fropa, pops eliminated and skies clear shortly thereafter
(mainly after midnight) tonight. We`ll see some 30s dip into the
area tonight for lows, mainly across our western third/counties.
While patchy frost may be possible in the Ozarks or western fringe
counties, believe winds will hold light breeze for all but very
end of night (far west) and thus preclude necessity for frost
headline like further to our West.
Slightly cooler/drier air then works down the column for
tmrw/tmrw night. Tuesday is an airmass modifying/rebounding day,
though not as warm as today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday Night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
The primary weather feature will occur within the first 24 hours
of the extended forecast period. The trough forecast to build into
the Pacific Northwest U.S. today will carve out a closed low
across the Western U.S. through Tuesday. As the western limb of
the slightly westward tilted north-south orient ridge moves east
of the area, the moisture plume from the Gulf of Mexico will
intersect with more favorable instability on Wednesday. This will
produce of a mix of showers and thunderstorms, as minor impulses
rotate around the eastern limb of the trough from northern Mexico
and northward from the Lower Mississippi Valley. The thunderstorm
activity should diminish following the passage of the front
(albeit weak) Wednesday night, as the upper low from the Western
U.S. shifts into the Middle Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest.
By Thursday, the flow of moisture is truncated as the broad upper
trough across the Midwest shears out along the southern edge.
This will limit the deep layer moisture, with the only
contribution from existing moisture advected around the trough
from the upper Midwest. Given the variability in both the speed
and location of the upper trough, there may be intermittent
injection of cold air advection shower (possibly isolated
thunderstorm) development from northwest to southeast across the
WFO PAH forecast area. For all intent and purposes, plan to keep
the area dry, as coverage will be sporadic at best Friday into
Saturday.
With the switch to northwest flow late Friday night through Sunday
night, we could see temperatures falling back into the 30s. we
could see frost potential and possibly a mild freeze potential
each night next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016
Terminals reside in pre frontal environ this pm, with MVFR
scattered bases becoming CIGS as cold front taps moistening tongue
in advance of its arrival late this pm/and passage early this
evening. Convective chances increase, particularly east, and have
included MVFR to at times IFR vsby restriction with gusty winds
and perhaps, airport alternate cigs occurring in stronger storm.
The time window is short, from 1-2 hours west (KCGI) to 3-4 hours
east (KOWB) for convection induced restrictions. Otherwise fropa
will ultimately clear/scatter skies later tonight as winds go
northwesterly and slacken.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN OHIO VALLEY WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT RACING
EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE
DRIVER OF STORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...WELL AHEAD THE BOUNDARY...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WHILE THICK CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
CLOUDS LIMITED THE TEMP RISE SOMEWHAT IN THE EAST WITH SOME MID
TO UPPER 60S NOTED WHILE IN THE WEST AND NORTH READINGS REACHED
INTO THE 70S THANKS TO THINNER CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE ARE
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...CONTINUING THEIR CLIMB AS THE AIR
MASS MOISTENS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM...AND ALSO ADDING TO
THE BUILDING INSTABILITY AS OF MID AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY
PASSING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WHILE A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON ITS WAY
NORTHEAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
THE OTHER MODELS WITH MUCH BETTER CLUSTERING NOTED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES.
EVEN SO...THIS WILL PROVIDE A DYNAMIC PUNCH TO ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
BLEND FOR WX DETAILS...WITH A SIGNIFICANT LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND
NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE A LATE SPRING EVENING AS AN APPROACHING
FRONT LIKELY BRINGS STORMS TO THE AREA...CROSSING FROM WEST TO
EAST TOWARD...AND JUST AFTER...MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA IS MAXIMIZING
ITS CAPE AND DESTABILIZING. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED TO ACTIVATE THIS POTENTIAL AND THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
WELL AFTER SUNSET AND INTO FALLING INSTABILITY. WHEN THE FRONT
DOES ARRIVE...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ACCOMPANY IT
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...DUE TO THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS
THE MAIN THREATS. WILL BRING THIS FRONT THROUGH IN THE GRIDS WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS AND A QUICK DIMINISHMENT ON ITS BACKSIDE ALONG
WITH AN END TO THE STORM THREAT POST FROPA. CAA FOLLOWS THROUGH
DAWN AND THEN LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER DURING THE DAY MONDAY
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME PATCHY
FROST ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES THAT CLEAR OUT EARLIER
IN THE NIGHT AND FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN A CAA PATTERN.
AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE WET MOS NUMBERS TONIGHT AND
SIMILARLY LOW THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND SURFACE HIGH PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MORNINGS WILL START OFF
COOL WITH FROST BEING A POTENTIAL CONCERN...BUT WE MAKE UP FOR IT
WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE A
AMPLIFIED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL TRY TO MOVE EAST...AND WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS IT DOES. WHILE THIS TAKES PLACE A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AND EJECT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND PHASING
DIFFERENCES OVERALL MODELS SEEM TO BE MATCHING UP WELL FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WE GET CAUGHT IN CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE SPOKES RIDING AROUND A DEEPER LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AND THIS WILL FURTHER ENFORCE THE COLD AIR ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. RIGHT NOW THIS FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...AND THE MODEL BLEND KEEPS IT DRY ON SUNDAY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVES TO KEEP THE END OF THE
WEEK COOL WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY AND
BY SUNDAY SOME MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD INTO THE EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING
FLOW PREVENTS LOWER CIGS FROM DEVELOPING EFFECTIVELY. AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
THIS...HAVE KEPT VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS EVENING AT ALL
SITES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...
CIGS WILL QUICKLY FALL TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOWER CIGS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS
WELL...HAVE LEFT SOME VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THIS. WINDS WILL SWING
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KTS BEFORE
COMING AROUND TO THE WEST FOLLOWING FROPA...AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
NEAR THE STORMS AND SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT A FEW GUSTS TO 20 OR
25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1107 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR AREAS THAT WERE IN LINE
FOR POSSIBLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. SINCE
THAT TIME...RADAR TRENDS ARE NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AND THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO GREATLY DOWNPLAYING THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT...PARTICULARLY THE
COUPLED UPPER JET PATTERN...REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFT FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...SO AM HESITANT TO
DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. REGARDING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...IT STILL APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE THAT IS KEEPING THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE WATER...HOWEVER SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA DO NOT
HAVE AS MUCH COMPETITION AND COULD GET STRONG ENOUGH FOR BRIEF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND MAYBE SOME HAIL...HOWEVER MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED.
IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO NOT ORGANIZE INTO ANY POTENTIALLY TRAINING BANDS WITH
HIGH REFLECTIVITY...IT IS POSSIBLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE
CANCELLED EARLY. OVERALL TRENDS OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES DROPPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY AROUND SUNSET STILL LOOK
GOOD...BUT LATER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED. 22/TD
&&
.AVIATION...
FLUCTUATING CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO VFR TO IFR REMAIN PROBLEMATIC
FOR CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF FORECASTS TODAY...SO AMENDMENTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED. LOWER CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF RESTRICTED VSBYS IN SHRA/FEW TSRA AND SCATTERED LOWER CIGS.
OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
COVERAGE OF THE SHRA/TSRA DECREASES. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN
SOME AREAS TONIGHT FROM AROUND 06Z TO 14Z MONDAY
MORNING...DEPENDING QUITE A BIT ON WHETHER CIGS ABOVE 010 CLEAR
OUT AND/OR OTHER CIGS BELOW 010 BUILD DOWN TOWARDS THE GROUND.
22/TD
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/
SYNOPSIS...L/W TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHES SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND JUST EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. SW FLOW IS ALOFT FROM MEXICO THROUGH THE SERN CONUS AND
MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. OLD BNDRY DRAPED RIGHT ACROSS THE
COAST WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY AND THE SRN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ACROSS
SELA AND JUST INTO THE GULF. /CAB/
SHORT TERM...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 5Z AS LIFT BEGAN TO
INCREASE.
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS CONVECTION TODAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES
IN THINKING AS WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-55 CORRIDOR BUT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSRA SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS MORNING.
AS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IT IS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THAT
WILL SEE MORE INGREDIENTS LINE UP. FIRST WILL BE A STRENGTHENING LL
JET WHICH COULD APPROACH 35-40 KTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SERN HALF
OF THE CWA B/T 12 AND 18Z THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION A MID LVL JET OF
40-55 KTS WILL WORK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
COMBINE THAT WITH RICH H85 THETA E AIR PUMPING INTO THE SAME REGION
AND PWS OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES SHOULD YIELD SOME EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCTION. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE PARALLEL TO THE STALLED
BNDRY AND THIS COULD LEAD TO TRAINING OF STORMS WITH GREATEST
CONCERN ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE AND COASTAL MS.
AS FOR STRONG/SEVERE...CANT RULE OUT A ROGUE STORM OR TWO ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE STRONG TO DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BUT AS ALWAYS IT DOESNT TAKE MUCH TO
GET A QUICK SPIN UP DOWN HERE. OVERALL NOT MUCH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BUT A GOOD BIT OF ELEVLATED INSTABILITY.
CONCERN IS IF THE BNDRY CAN DRIFT FURTHER NORTH...THEN SOUTH OF THAT
BNDRY STORMS COULD BECOME ROOTED TO THE SFC. AGAIN IF THAT HAPPENS
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
AS FOR WHEN CONVECTION WILL END...STILL LOOKS LIKE THINGS MAY BEGIN
TO SHUT OFF THIS AFTN IN THE NW AND COULD DO SO QUICKLY. AS
MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE COULD BEGIN AROUND
19/20Z IN THE FAR NW WITH DOWNGLIDE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AROUND 00-
01Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR CLOSE TO THE SAME TIME AND ONCE THIS
HAPPENS ALL PRECIP SHOULD SHUT DOWN. THE ENTIRE CWA WILL LIKELY
BE RAIN FREE BY 3Z TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY MUCH SOONER THAN THAT.
MON AND INTO TUE SHOULD BE QUIET WITH COOLER TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS HOWEVER MDLS ARE TRYING TO BRING SOME SHRA BACK INTO THE
REGION LATE TUE AS RETURN FLOW SETS BACK UP AND THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
TAKING SHAPE OUT WEST. /CAB/
LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PERIOD
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BUT THEY DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIG AND DEEPEN THE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PAC NW TWRDS NV AND UT. THIS AMPLIFIES
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS PUTTING THE REGION BACK UNDER SW FLOW
AND THUS TAPPING INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND THE PAC MOISTURE. THIS
WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA BACK INTO THE AREA WED AND THU. PROBLEMS
BEGIN TO SHOW UP WITH FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN ISSUE IS
WHAT HAPPENS TO THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH. IF IT BREAKS AND CLOSES
OFF FROM THE MAIN L/W WE WILL DRY OUT FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE
MOVE UNDER WEAK WNW FLOW AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. IF THE
BASE DOESNT BREAK OFF AND THE L/W TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE THROUGH WHILE THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES FRI AND
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THAT ALL SAID OBVIOUSLY CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW FOR THE BACK END OF THE FCST SO WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MDLS SHOWING LOW END POPS FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND THEN
DRIER CONDITIONS LATE SAT. THE SAME FOR TEMPS AS WE WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE COLDER GFS AND WARMER ECMWF. /CAB/
AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY DROPPING TO LIFR AT SOME
TERMINAL AND SHOULD SPREAD TO ALL SITES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL DROP VISIBILITIES AS WELL. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS.
HEAVIER RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND FOG MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. /MEFFER/
MARINE...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
CELLS TO PRODUCE WIND GUST IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT EAST LATE MORNING/INTO THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT
ELEVATED SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW AND RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY NOT PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MONDAY
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
VERY TIGHT...SO MAY ONLY BRIEFLY REACH SCS CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY RELAX BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER IN TO
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO RISE POSSIBLY TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. /MEFFER/
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MODERATE RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 76 53 71 50 / 100 10 0 0
BTR 78 56 74 53 / 100 10 0 0
ASD 76 59 74 55 / 100 10 0 0
MSY 76 61 72 58 / 100 10 0 0
GPT 74 61 74 56 / 100 20 0 0
PQL 74 60 75 54 / 100 20 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ040-
057>065-072.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ080>082.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONE WEAKER SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS AIDED RAIN AND SOME SNOW THAT HAS SPREAD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN UPPER MI TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS OVER
MN/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO. A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING OVER
MO. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE HAS QUICKLY STREAKED NE ACROSS
SE WI...NRN LAKE MI AND INTO ERN UPPER MI...FORCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF UPPER JET EXTENDING ENE FROM THE UPPER LAKES AND CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN FGEN IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS.
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...FOCUS WILL BE ON ENDING LINGERING PCPN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN THAT HAS DEVELOPED NE INTO ERN UPPER MI MAY
BRUSH THE SE FCST AREA THRU THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE SWINGS FROM MO
ACROSS SE LWR MI. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...ARRIVAL OF DEEP
LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING AN
END TO PATCHY -RA/-SN. HOWEVER...WITH MID LEVELS GRADUALLY DRYING
OUT WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERS AT THE LOW-LEVELS...SOME
-DZ/-FZDZ MAY DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS UNDER RATHER PRONOUNCED
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC NORTHERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH CLEARING IS NOT FAR
AWAY OVER NW LAKE SUPERIOR...LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING SUGGEST AT LEAST THE NCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA WILL BE
TAPPING THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS NNE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR -DZ/-FZDZ. IT ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON ACROSS EVEN THE W...PARTICULARY IN THE FACE OF
CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOULD ANY CLEARING OCCUR OVER THE
W...RADIATIONAL FOG COULD DEVELOP. WITH MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...RAISED MINS FOR TONIGHT TO MOSTLY THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S. IF
CLOUDS BREAK OVER THE FAR W...TEMPS WILL FALL TOWARD 20F.
EXPECT ANY -DZ/-FZDZ TO START THE DAY MON TO END BY AFTN AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE THINS A BIT. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS...BUT WOULDN`T
BE SURPRISED IF SKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/E
UNDER LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THE LONGER RANGE OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF PRETTY TRANQUIL
FOLLOWED BY A MIDWEEK STORM THAT WILL FEATURE RAIN FOLLOWED BY EVEN
A LITTLE SNOW. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK LATE IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRUSHED BY A BRIEF BUT COLD SHOT OF AIR LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A SEASONABLY COLD
FROSTY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
CHANGES BEGIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. AS IT DOES...SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE
PLAINS WITH BRAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION PUSHING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S OVER THE WESTERN U.P. WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE U.P. FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ACTUAL TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE DISCREPANCIES SEEM TO HINGE ON
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. TRENDS SEEM
TO INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...AT LEAST INITIALLY
WILL NOT INTERACT AS MUCH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW LEADING
TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO
THE LAKES REGION. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH MODELS COMING INTO A BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI EXPECT ENOUGH COLD
AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN TO TRANSITIONING THE RAIN TO SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SLOPPY FEW INCHES
OF WET SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDY...COOL CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES. UPPER TROUGH AND SURGE OF COLD AIR...85H TEMPS OF -20 TO
-25C...WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATER NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SOME NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS HOWEVER SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING
THE HARSHNESS OF THE COLD SURGE AND OFFERING MORE OF A BRIEF
GLANCING BLOW WITH WARM ADVECTION RETURNING BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MOIST...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KSAW THRU THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT TO IFR WILL OCCUR
AT KIWD THIS EVENING AND AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT. AT KCMX...A LESS
DIRECT UPSLOPE WIND AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW
FOR PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MAKES INROADS...ALL TERMINALS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT
KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
WITH LOW PRES TRACKING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING...15-25KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND MON. CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING HIGH PRES
RIDGE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...WILL THEN BECOME THE RULE ACROSS THE
LAKE MON NIGHT THRU AT LEAST TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES.
SE TO S WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TUE THRU WED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF FLOW...
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...PROBABLY TO
20-30KT. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WED NIGHT AND A LOW PRES WAVE
TRACKS LONG THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND N IN THE 20-
30KT RANGE. WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE FOR AT LEAST A PART OF
THU/THU EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES WAVE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE ON FRI BEFORE A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF GALES DURING THE
DAY SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
138 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
IT WILL BE A MILD EASTER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN
CENTRAL LOWER...TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER. HOWEVER
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SPOTS SOUTH AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS MAY EVEN HAVE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THEN EXIT THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...BUT IT WILL BE DRY.
MORE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
AGAIN FRIDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD COOL
DOWN AGAIN WITH HIGHS JUST IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
QUITE DRY HERE IN SW LOWER MI. IT IS NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
I DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GET ADD GREATER DETAIL TO THE SHORT TERM
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART I DELAYED
THE START OF THE RAIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THAT WILL ONLY START MOVING INTO
OUR WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS FROM
GRAND RAPIDS TO ALMA AND SOUTH SHOULD STAY DRY MOST OF TODAY.
BASED ON THE 04 AM HRRR AND 04 AM RAP MODELS... THE CONVECTION
WILL NOT GET INTO OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS TILL AFTER 4 PM. MODEL
SOUNDING SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE AREA NEAR JXN AND
MOSTLY AFTER 4 PM. THAT IS REALLY NOT A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE IDEA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL IN THE I-69
AREA AGREES WITH THE SPC SREF AND THE NCAR ENSEMBLES. OVERALL MOST
OF OUR CWA WILL NOT SEE RAIN UNTIL TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS MORE THAN POSSIBLE IN THE I-69 AREA FROM THESE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THE SYSTEM FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT APPEARS STRONGER WITH SOLID
JET DYNAMICS. ALSO SEEING DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SOME
THUNDER. THEN THE WORK WEEK STARTS OUT COOL AND DRY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE QUICKLY NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A 115 KT
UPPER JET WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION MOVING OVER LOWER MI BY MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
JET IMPLUSES KEEP THIS QUAD OF THE UPPER JET OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A PROLONG PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION AND A STEADIER RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AS WE WORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
WE CAN ALSO EXPECT A LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS ADDED LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS LOW LEVEL JET...SO ADDED SOME
THUNDER. THIS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. GENERALLY
EXPECT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN...BUT AREAS SE OF GRR COULD
SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH. WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS TOWARD THE FAR SE CWA...TOWARD JXN...PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL.
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE CWA MONDAY MORNING...SO ADDED LOW
POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA FOR A FEW LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE SLOW CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. I DID LOWER MAX TEMPS
ON MONDAY WITH DECENT CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY THEN AND HIGHS AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THERE WILL BE TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE FIRST IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THEN THERE IS A ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WITH IT FOR SUNDAY (ALL DAY) AND SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LIKELY WILL ACCUMULATE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.
A POWERFUL STORM (958 MB) CURRENTLY NEAR 48N AND 171E... WITH A 200
KNOT JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH IT... THAT BUILDS A LARGE UPSTREAM
RIDGE JUST OFF SHORE OF NORTH AMERICA FROM CALIFORNIA TO ALASKA BY
TUESDAY. THAT IN TURN FORCES A MERGER OF A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS BRING A STRONG
SPRING STORM THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF MICHIGAN THAT
PUTS US IN THE WARM AIR AND WITH A GULF CONNECTION... THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS IT TYPICAL THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS AND IS MORE LIKELY CORRECT.
BEHIND THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE ARCTIC DIVES INTO THAT DEEP
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TROUGH AND BRINGS THE COLDEST AIR SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF MARCH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY WE WILL NOT GET ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE AGAIN THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AT BTL/JXN DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY THERE. CIGS WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND BECOME IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY CIGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
RATHER STRONG NNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES BY. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING LATE TONIGHT
AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THE LAKE WILL CALM DOWN LATE
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MANY RIVER FORECAST POINTS... ESPECIALLY ON THE GRAND RIVER... ARE
RUNNING NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE BANK FULL. UP TO AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK IN TWO CHUNKS. SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT... THE RAIN (UNDER A HALF INCH) WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST.
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD THEREFORE SLOWLY FALL THIS WEEK. NUISANCE
FLOODING WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN LOWLAND AREAS ADJACENT
TO RIVER BANKS. MORE IMPACTFUL MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BY WEEKS END.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING TO AROUND 60 SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL UPDATE
THIS FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
ADDED SOME SPRINKLES FOR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON SAT TRENDS. SHALLOW COOL AIR FLOWING SOUTH ALONG TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BUT SUN APPEARS TO BE ERODING THE CLOUDS RESULTING IN A
SLOWER EFFECTIVE MOVEMENT SOUTH. TEMPS NORTH CENTRAL STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S THERE TO UPPER 50S WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MAIN UPDATES INVOLVE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES/RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
USED THE HRRR FOR RH TODAY GIVING UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTHWEST.
WITHOUT WIND THE FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE TODAY
BUT VERY LOW RH CONTINUES TO BE A COMMON CHARACTERISTIC LATELY.
RADARS FROM KBIS/KABR/KMVX SHOW VIRGA FROM MID LEVEL ACCAS. THIS
WILL MOVE EAST. SHALLOW COOL MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL BETWEEN TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND WESTHOPE. WILL LOWER MAX
TEMPS AND INCREASE CLOUDS FAR NORTH CENTRAL TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A WEAK TROUGH.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AND ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A PLEASANT EASTER IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN THE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE DOWN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
AFTERNOON READINGS WILL APPROACH 20 PERCENT. THIS NORMALLY WOULD
CAUSE SOME FIRE CONCERN...HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
TUESDAY A STRONG STORM TAKES AIM ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS MODELS DIFFER ON STORM TRACK AND INTENSITY. FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE PICTURE IS TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST INDICATION IS
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.
THIS TRANSITION TO RAIN WOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND LEAD TO MELTING OF ALREADY ACCUMULATED SNOW.
WHAT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN IS MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR RATHER
WINDY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
VFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VIRGA
POSSIBLE AT KISN WITH CIGS AT 9KFT UNTIL 00Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KMOT/KJMS
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
MONDAY. WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE ON DURATION AND TIMING...WILL KEEP
CIGS SCT015-025 FOR KMOT/KJMS DURING THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME AND
LET THE NEXT FORECAST ADJUST IF LOWER CIG TRENDS CONTINUE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1156 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
ADDED SOME SPRINKLES FOR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON SAT TRENDS. SHALLOW COOL AIR FLOWING SOUTH ALONG TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BUT SUN APPEARS TO BE ERODING THE CLOUDS RESULTING IN A
SLOWER EFFECTIVE MOVEMENT SOUTH. TEMPS NORTH CENTRAL STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S THERE TO UPPER 50S WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MAIN UPDATES INVOLVE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES/RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
USED THE HRRR FOR RH TODAY GIVING UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTHWEST.
WITHOUT WIND THE FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE TODAY
BUT VERY LOW RH CONTINUES TO BE A COMMON CHARACTERISTIC LATELY.
RADARS FROM KBIS/KABR/KMVX SHOW VIRGA FROM MID LEVEL ACCAS. THIS
WILL MOVE EAST. SHALLOW COOL MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL BETWEEN TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND WESTHOPE. WILL LOWER MAX
TEMPS AND INCREASE CLOUDS FAR NORTH CENTRAL TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A WEAK TROUGH.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AND ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A PLEASANT EASTER IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN THE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE DOWN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
AFTERNOON READINGS WILL APPROACH 20 PERCENT. THIS NORMALLY WOULD
CAUSE SOME FIRE CONCERN...HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
TUESDAY A STRONG STORM TAKES AIM ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS MODELS DIFFER ON STORM TRACK AND INTENSITY. FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE PICTURE IS TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST INDICATION IS
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.
THIS TRANSITION TO RAIN WOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND LEAD TO MELTING OF ALREADY ACCUMULATED SNOW.
WHAT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN IS MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR RATHER
WINDY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
VFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VIRGA
POSSIBLE AT KISN WITH CIGS AT 9KFT UNTIL 00Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KMOT/KJMS
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
MONDAY. WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE ON DURATION AND TIMING...WILL KEEP
CIGS SCT015-025 FOR KMOT/KJMS DURING THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME AND
LET THE NEXT FORECAST ADJUST IF LOWER CIG TRENDS CONTINUE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
619 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. WARMER
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE/FRONT THURSDAY. COOLER AIR AGAIN OVER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...REMOVED MENTION OF POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WITH MORNING UPDATE HAD PUT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AS A PSEUDO
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS CWA...HOWEVER RADAR ECHOS HAVE LARGELY
DRIED UP SO TOOK THAT MENTION BACK OUT. HRRR STILL TRIES TO KICK
OFF A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT WITH THICK CIRRUS NOW IN PLACE...DO NOT
SEE US BEING ABLE TO POP ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CU.
HAVE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND LOWER INTO THIS EVENING...AS
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM STARTS MAKING ITS WAY UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STILL THINKING WE COULD GET SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...SO LEFT SOME LOW POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS
TO NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HAVE 80-100 POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES. MUCH LIKE THE LAST DECENT COLD FRONT WE
HAD PASS...PWATS DRY UP SOME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SO HAVE
HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SE OHIO -- GENERALLY 0.5 INCH...TAPERING DOWN
TO ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
ANY INSTABILITY OF NOTE REMAINS LARGELY TO OUR WEST UNTIL SOME
200-400J/KG CAPE SLIDES THROUGH RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND BY
THAT TIME WE ARE GETTING INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD TO AROUND THE I-79 CORRIDOR BEFORE FADING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
850 MB THERMAL TROF PASSES AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...12Z NAM AND ECMWF
ABOUT 1 TO 2C COLDER THAN THE 12Z GFS. LOWERED MIN TEMP AOA 4000
THSD A DEGREE OR TWO...TRENDING COLDER THAN GFS.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THINNING MOISTURE UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AOB 5 THSD FT...SO CLOUD COVER TOUGH...WITH HOLES OPENING
UP. STILL HAVE THE LOWERING POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...MAYBE A SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER UP HIGH.
STILL THOUGHT ENOUGH CLEARING IN NE KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT FOR
POSSIBLE MIN TEMP NEAR FREEZING FOR DAWN TUESDAY. WILL INSERT IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR KY SINCE THAT IS WHERE OUR SPRING
FREEZE PROGRAM AS ALREADY STARTED. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT...DID NOT POST A
FREEZE WATCH.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR VICINITY AT START OF TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGHT NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY FORM IN VALLEYS BEFORE THE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST INCREASES 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SO LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
ANOTHER NICE MARCH DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...FOR THIS WARM MARCH OF 2016.
A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP SPREAD WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO 14C IN SRN
LOWLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WARM FRONT
COULD BRING SOME RAIN EARLY THURSDAY...BUT THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT LIKELY
POPS FOR THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW LOW SFC CAPE AND HIGH DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.25 INCHES. THESE
PARAMETER COULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...KEPT THUNDER UNDER LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY.
BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT A SECONDARY FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR.
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
BUT FASTER SYSTEM CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
USED THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME MVFR
CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...AND POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGES INTO BKW DUE TO SE FLOW. COULD EVEN GET A SHOWER ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN ANY
HEAVIER BANDS. ALSO INCLUDED SOME THUNDER AT WESTERN TAF
SITES...BUT DUE TO TIME OF DAY THINK CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS
THINGS MOVE EAST. MVFR CLOUDS LINGER MOST OF MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY. ALSO HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF NEEDING TO ADD IFR TEMPO AS SHOWERS GET CLOSER.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L L M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
605 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE KTOL
AREA 3-4Z...THE ISLANDS TO KCMH 06Z...KCLE 09-10Z AND EAST OF THE
AREA BY 12-14Z. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR POP TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING BRINGING THE FIRST SHOT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO WRN
COUNTIES AFTER 00Z. THE HRRR HAS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING NORTHEAST
WHILE ANOTHER CLUSTER OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SWRN OHIO BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AFTER 04-05Z AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SOME STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AT
LEAST WEST. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT
INCREASING WINDS POST COLD FRONT MAINLY 08-12Z. MODELS SHOW 850MB
WINDS APPROACHING 45-50KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION. GUIDANCE IS FAR
ENOUGH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THAT I BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL BE OK
BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS TOWARDS MORNING IN THE WEST WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER
35 KNOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE BETWEEN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
HURON WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE AREA. CONCERNED AGAIN
ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A WIND ADVISORY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKESHORE WHERE THE WNW FLOW SHOULD BE STRONGEST. WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN. OTHERWISE HAVE DECREASING POPS WEST TO
EAST MONDAY. HIGH WILL ONLY REACH 45 TO 50. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BEGIN WITH A LOW CHANCE POP FAR NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY TEMPS
SHOULD MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND
A DECENT SSW GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKES FROM THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE GLFMX SO EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL GET INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN ECMWF...BOTH MODELS BRING
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR
TSRA DURING THE DAY...AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 55KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. AFTER THAT COOLER TEMPS WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL TROUGHS ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. ANOTHER BLAST OF WINTER DUE SUNDAY. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT
THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
EITHER WAY MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -16C
ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. OVERNIGHT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NOW NEAR STL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE SOME TSRA...BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MODELS MOVE LOW INTO NW OHIO TOWARD MIDNIGHT LOCAL AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SPC HAS WEST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA IN MARGINAL RISK. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM WINDS AS 925MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 50KT OVER THE WEST HALF. BEHIND THE FRONT W-SW
WINDS GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. OVERNIGHT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NOW NEAR STL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE SOME TSRA...BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MODELS MOVE LOW INTO NW OHIO TOWARD MIDNIGHT LOCAL AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SPC HAS WEST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA IN MARGINAL RISK. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM WINDS AS 925MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 50KT OVER THE WEST HALF. BEHIND THE FRONT W-SW
WINDS GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TO OUR WEST HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER
MI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. AT 3PM THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CHICAGO AREA SSW TO
CENTRAL/ERN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE KTOL AREA 3-4Z
THE ISLANDS TO KCMH 06Z...KCLE 09-10Z AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
12-14Z. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR POP TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING
BRINGING THE FIRST SHOT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO WRN COUNTIES
AFTER 00Z. THE HRRR HAS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING NORTHEAST WHILE
ANOTHER CLUSTER OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SWRN OHIO BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AFTER 04-05Z AND EVENTUALLY SPREADINGOVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SOME STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS
AT LEAST WEST. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
ABOUT INCREASING WINDS POST COLD FRONT MAINLY 08-12Z. MODELS SHOW
850MB WINDS APPROACHING 45-50KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION. GUIDANCE
IS FAR ENOUGH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THAT I BELIEVE MOST AREAS
WILL BE OK BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS TOWARDS MORNING IN THE
WEST WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE BETWEEN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
HURON WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE AREA. CONCERNED AGAIN
ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A WIND ADVISORY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKESHORE WHERE THE WNW FLOW SHOULD BE STRONGEST. WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN. OTHERWISE HAVE DECREASING POPS WEST TO
EAST MONDAY. HIGH WILL ONLY REACH 45 TO 50. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BEGIN WITH A LOW CHANCE POP FAR NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY TEMPS
SHOULD MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND
A DECENT SSW GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKES FROM THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE GLFMX SO EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL GET INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN ECMWF...BOTH MODELS BRING
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR
TSRA DURING THE DAY...AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 55KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. AFTER THAT COOLER TEMPS WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL TROUGHS ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. ANOTHER BLAST OF WINTER DUE SUNDAY. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT
THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
EITHER WAY MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -16C
ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. OVERNIGHT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NOW NEAR STL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE SOME TSRA...BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MODELS MOVE LOW INTO NW OHIO TOWARD MIDNIGHT LOCAL AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SPC HAS WEST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA IN MARGINAL RISK. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM WINDS AS 925MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 50KT OVER THE WEST HALF. BEHIND THE FRONT W-SW
WINDS GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. OVERNIGHT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NOW NEAR STL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE SOME TSRA...BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MODELS MOVE LOW INTO NW OHIO TOWARD MIDNIGHT LOCAL AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SPC HAS WEST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA IN MARGINAL RISK. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM WINDS AS 925MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 50KT OVER THE WEST HALF. BEHIND THE FRONT W-SW
WINDS GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
233 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. WARMER
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE/FRONT THURSDAY. COOLER AIR AGAIN OVER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH MORNING UPDATE HAD PUT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AS A PSEUDO
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS CWA...HOWEVER RADAR ECHOS HAVE LARGELY
DRIED UP SO TOOK THAT MENTION BACK OUT. HRRR STILL TRIES TO KICK
OFF A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT WITH THICK CIRRUS NOW IN PLACE...DO NOT
SEE US BEING ABLE TO POP ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CU.
HAVE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND LOWER INTO THIS EVENING...AS
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM STARTS MAKING ITS WAY UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STILL THINKING WE COULD GET SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...SO LEFT SOME LOW POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS
TO NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HAVE 80-100 POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES. MUCH LIKE THE LAST DECENT COLD FRONT WE
HAD PASS...PWATS DRY UP SOME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SO HAVE
HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SE OHIO -- GENERALLY 0.5 INCH...TAPERING DOWN
TO ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
ANY INSTABILITY OF NOTE REMAINS LARGELY TO OUR WEST UNTIL SOME
200-400J/KG CAPE SLIDES THROUGH RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND BY
THAT TIME WE ARE GETTING INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD TO AROUND THE I-79 CORRIDOR BEFORE FADING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
850 MB THERMAL TROF PASSES AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...12Z NAM AND ECMWF
ABOUT 1 TO 2C COLDER THAN THE 12Z GFS. LOWERED MIN TEMP AOA 4000
THSD A DEGREE OR TWO...TRENDING COLDER THAN GFS.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THINNING MOISTURE UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AOB 5 THSD FT...SO CLOUD COVER TOUGH...WITH HOLES OPENING
UP. STILL HAVE THE LOWERING POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...MAYBE A SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER UP HIGH.
STILL THOUGHT ENOUGH CLEARING IN NE KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT FOR
POSSIBLE MIN TEMP NEAR FREEZING FOR DAWN TUESDAY. WILL INSERT IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR KY SINCE THAT IS WHERE OUR SPRING
FREEZE PROGRAM AS ALREADY STARTED. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT...DID NOT POST A
FREEZE WATCH.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR VICINITY AT START OF TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGHT NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY FORM IN VALLEYS BEFORE THE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST INCREASES 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SO LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
ANOTHER NICE MARCH DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...FOR THIS WARM MARCH OF 2016.
A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP SPREAD WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO 14C IN SRN
LOWLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WARM FRONT
COULD BRING SOME RAIN EARLY THURSDAY...BUT THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT LIKELY
POPS FOR THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW LOW SFC CAPE AND HIGH DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.25 INCHES. THESE
PARAMETER COULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...KEPT THUNDER UNDER LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY.
BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT A SECONDARY FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR.
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
BUT FASTER SYSTEM CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
USED THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME MVFR
CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...AND POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGES INTO BKW DUE TO SE FLOW. COULD EVEN GET A SHOWER ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN ANY
HEAVIER BANDS. ALSO INCLUDED SOME THUNDER AT WESTERN TAF
SITES...BUT DUE TO TIME OF DAY THINK CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS
THINGS MOVE EAST. MVFR CLOUDS LINGER MOST OF MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY. ALSO HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF NEEDING TO ADD IFR TEMPO AS SHOWERS GET CLOSER.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/KTB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
142 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE/FRONT LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH MORNING UPDATE HAD PUT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AS A PSEUDO
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS CWA...HOWEVER RADAR ECHOS HAVE LARGELY
DRIED UP SO TOOK THAT MENTION BACK OUT. HRRR STILL TRIES TO KICK
OFF A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT WITH THICK CIRRUS NOW IN PLACE...DO NOT
SEE US BEING ABLE TO POP ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CU.
HAVE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND LOWER INTO THIS EVENING...AS
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM STARTS MAKING ITS WAY UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STILL THINKING WE COULD GET SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...SO LEFT SOME LOW POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS
TO NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HAVE 80-100 POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES. MUCH LIKE THE LAST DECENT COLD FRONT WE
HAD PASS...PWATS DRY UP SOME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SO HAVE
HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SE OHIO -- GENERALLY 0.5 INCH...TAPERING DOWN
TO ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
ANY INSTABILITY OF NOTE REMAINS LARGELY TO OUR WEST UNTIL SOME
200-400J/KG CAPE SLIDES THROUGH RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND BY
THAT TIME WE ARE GETTING INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD TO AROUND THE I-79 CORRIDOR BEFORE FADING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WELL INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS
WILL ALSO BE LAST TO BREAK IN THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST
VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY MORNING AS 850 MB THERMAL TROF HOLDS THERE
OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN THOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT IT
WILL STILL BE QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT FLOW
MAKING FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO
FREEZING ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA AND FROST WILL BE LIKELY
IN THESE AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
GRADUAL WARMING MID WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD...OUT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING TROUGH/SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION/TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. POSSIBLY SPREADING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO EASTERN ZONES END OF THE WEEK OR EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TOWARDS END OF THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH...WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOUNTAINS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME MVFR
CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...AND POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGES INTO BKW DUE TO SE FLOW. COULD EVEN GET A SHOWER ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN ANY
HEAVIER BANDS. ALSO INCLUDED SOME THUNDER AT WESTERN TAF
SITES...BUT DUE TO TIME OF DAY THINK CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS
THINGS MOVE EAST. MVFR CLOUDS LINGER MOST OF MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY. ALSO HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF NEEDING TO ADD IFR TEMPO AS SHOWERS GET CLOSER.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1255 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO GREATER THAN BREEZY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WIND EXPECTED AFTER FROPA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE AND BECOME NE/E OVERNIGHT. A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. 281 MONDAY MORNING...MFR WEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS/
NEAR SFC SATURATION AND DRY ALOFT PER VARIOUS LAPS ANALYSIS
AND HRRR DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS/LGT OR CALM WIND IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONT.
MARINE...EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL NOON BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING
OF THE FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...COMBO OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS THIS MRNG.
IMPROVEMENT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN AROUND AND AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR
BY 18Z AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. LIGHT -DZ REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 18Z-24Z...BUT REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN TAFS. N-LY WIND 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTN
AND EARLY EVNG...WITH DECOUPLING HAPPENING TOWARD 03Z MONDAY.
SKIES WILL BRIEFLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT A RETURN OF 3500 FEET
STRATUS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LONG AWAITED FRONT IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY FROM
DALLAS TO SAN ANGELO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
MORNING...REACHING SOUTH TEXAS MID-LATE MORNING TODAY. THICK CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING. WARM MOIST AIR
RIDING OVER RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL BE ABLE TO RESULT
IN DENSE FOG ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVER LAND...THE THICK CLOUD COVER
APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING THE LOWER VISIBILITIES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION NEAR BEEVILLE IN THE LOWER LYING AREA SPOTS...SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE AREA MAY ALSO SUPPORT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. HRRR
AND TEXAS TECH PRECIP MODELS ALONG WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
A DRIER PERIOD BETWEEN SUNRISE AND THE NOON HOUR...ONLY TO PICK UP
SPOTTY SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW A STRONG CAP
OVER THE REGION...AND MOISTURE REMAINING LIMITED TO NEAR 1 INCH AT
TIMES...HAVE REMOVED 20 PERCENT POPS...YET LEFT IN WORDING FOR
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S AS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN PICK UP ONCE
AGAIN EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SECOND PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
BY TONIGHT...CLEARING AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE TONIGHT AS LOWS DIP INTO
THE 50S...WITH LOWER 50S TOWARD THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MONDAY...TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
MARINE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH 10 AM. WARM MOIST AIR WILL RIDE OVER COOL
SHELF WATERS LEADING TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TODAY. IMPROVEMENTS TO VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS
AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG-
TERM IS HOW TO HANDLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WHERE THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...BEFORE GOING
INTO THAT WILL FIRST DISCUSS THE EARLIER PERIODS WHERE THINGS
REMAIN A BIT MORE STRAIGHT-FORWARD.
MOISTURE COMES BACK NICELY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND SOME WEAK ENERGY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED
SOMEWHAT SO MAY ONLY SEE SHOWERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON DRYING
THINGS OUT LATE WEDNESDAY AND KEEP IT DRY ON THURSDAY...AND IT STILL
LOOKS TO BE WARM THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE WARM AS WELL IF DRIER
AIR GETS IN HERE FAST ENOUGH...AS 850MB TEMPERATURES 00Z THURSDAY
GET RATHER WARM. AM GOING WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL
MAY ONLY BE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE DAY (ANYWAY...RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE
EASTERN AREAS ONLY ON WEDNESDAY).
AFTER THAT...THINGS GET RATHER COMPLICATED...ACTUALLY STARTING ON
THURSDAY. GFS IS DEVELOPING A MORE POTENT SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND HAS A SLIGHT WIND
SHIFT. ECMWF BRINGS A BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH BETTER
MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN GFS IS SHOWING (GFS IS KEEPING BEST MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTH GIVEN STRONGER SURFACE PATTERN). ECMWF THEN BRINGS THE
MAIN PART OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME
(WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE THEN)...WHILE GFS IS MORE ON THE SATURDAY
NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME FRAME (WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AT THIS TIME).
THUS...QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE MOISTURE FIELDS BETWEEN THE TWO
MODELS (EACH OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER). AFTER DISCUSSING THINGS
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO
ADJUST THE FORECAST ONCE THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE FORECAST
MODELS (NEW DAY 8/SUNDAY GRIDS HAVE 20 POPS AS WELL BUT GHOST 10S
SUNDAY NIGHT). DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...DID NOT SWAY
TOO FAR FROM THE SUPERBLEND CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND MOST OTHER
PARAMETERS...ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE SKY COVER TOWARD THE WEEKEND
WHERE RAIN CHANCES WERE MENTIONED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 59 75 66 79 70 / 10 10 10 30 10
VICTORIA 51 75 61 78 67 / 0 10 20 30 20
LAREDO 59 80 64 86 70 / 10 0 10 10 10
ALICE 56 78 63 83 69 / 10 0 10 30 10
ROCKPORT 57 74 65 77 69 / 10 10 20 30 10
COTULLA 56 78 62 83 68 / 0 0 10 20 20
KINGSVILLE 58 76 65 82 69 / 10 10 10 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 60 72 67 76 70 / 10 10 20 30 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
141 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT WITH
OVERALL DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VISIBILITIES WERE GRADUALLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SOME THIS SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. EXPECTING A SHARP
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE AREAS IN THE FAR WEST
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LOWERED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST. ALSO CUT
BACK POPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
REGION.
LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NE...ESPCLY IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BASICALLY LOCK
IN LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPCLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS MOST MEASURABLE RAINFALL PER
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
THE IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR WEST DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT BEFORE MIXING OUT
ESPCLY FAR WEST GIVEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST MODEL
STABILITY INDICES INDICATE A SHARP GRADIENT NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE WEST. THUS PLAN
TO HAVE LITTLE POP ACROSS FAR SW VA INTO SE WEST VA WHERE SHOULD PUNCH
INTO THE 60S...WHILE TRENDING MORE CHANCE COVERAGE ELSEWHERE AFTER 12Z
FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY -RA/DZ WHICH MAY STILL BE OVERDONE.
OTRW CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA GIVEN
SUCH WARMTH ALOFT OVER A DEEP LATE MARCH WEDGE THAT COULD SCOUR SOME
TOWARD THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE LATER ON. HOWEVER THINK CLOUDS WILL
HOLD OVER THE EAST WHERE WILL TRIM HIGHS BACK MORE INTO THE
50S...WHILE KEEPING VALUES CLOSER TO 60 FAR SE AND NEW RIVER
VALLEY SECTIONS.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE EXITING EASTERN VA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ENHANCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
REGION SLIPS IN BETWEEN LIFT TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE. WEDGE WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING
FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH ANY INSTABILITY QUITE WEAK AND
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME SOLUTIONS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL SE FLOW AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DO COMBO A SWATH OF SHOWERS INTO THE ONGOING
UPSLOPE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THE WAVE. THUS HAVE EXPANDED
LIKELY POPS NE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING WITH A LINGERING
AXIS OF CATEGORICAL BEFORE DIMINISHING TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT TO THE NW SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE WEST NEAR
DAYBREAK BUT GIVEN MOST DYNAMICS NORTH AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
COULD EASILY SEE COVERAGE WEAKEN. THEREFORE ONLY UPPING POPS BACK
TO LOW LIKELYS FAR NW AROUND DAWN BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION FOR RESIDUAL CONVECTION PUSHING EAST. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH RISES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE CAD
STARTS TO WEAKEN AND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT SUNDAY...
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS (NORTHERN STREAM-OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN STREAM-OFF THE
VA/NC COAST) TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING ALONG WESTERN
GREENBRIER. PRESSURE RISES AND A +40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. INVERSION DEVELOPS MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TO KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY AS COLD AIR
PUSHING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN
THE MID 50S ALONG WESTERN SLOPES TO NEAR 60F TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL HELP THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES WARM INTO THE LOWER
70S.
DESPITE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING
MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TO GO BELOW FREEZING WITH AMPLE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS EAST COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE RIDGES WARMER THAN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
TYPICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS OPENING UP
THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVING IT FASTER EAST. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEP
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS SEPARATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL BE TRENDING TO THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND WPC FORECAST.
THIS MOVES THE 500 MB RIDGE OFF SHORE BY FRIDAY AND DIG A DEEP
NORTHERN STREAM TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.
EXPECTING GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND +12.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY PROLONG THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND HOLD CLOUDS IN
THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING
EXTENSIVE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WAS ROUGHLY FROM
KHSP TO KMJK.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG A FRONT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LOWER THE CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR AFTER 00Z/8PM WITH PERSISTENT
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MODELS SHOWED GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH
THE WEDGE BREAKING AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BETWEEN 10Z AND
14Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE WINDS AND CEILINGS THROUGH 15Z/11AM.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN AT KLWB AND KBLF THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...BUT KBCB/KROA/KLYH AND KDAN WILL HAVE RAPID CLEARING.
WIND GUST THROUGH 18Z MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND
LOW CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS/RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH