Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/25/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
119 AM MDT WED MAR 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT WED MAR 23 2016
HAVE STARTED THE WINTER STORM WARNING EARLIER THAN FORECAST FOR
ZONE 35 WITH ALREADY HEAVY SNOW FALLING ACROSS BOULDER AND LARIMER
COUNTIES ABOVE 8000 FEET. ALREADY SEEING 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES REPORTED AT ALLENSPARK. COULD EASILY SEE THE 1-2 INCH PER
HOUR RATES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY 3 INCHES IN
ONE HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW. HAVE ALREADY INCREASED SNOWFALL
TO 8-15 INCHES FOR ZONE 35 AND THAT MAYBE STILL TOO LOW. WILL ALSO
NEED TO PROBABLY INCREASE SNOWFALL IN ZONE 36 AS WELL AND POSSIBLY
INCLUDE THEM IN A WARNING. MORE TO COME...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP ARE SHOWING THE 500 MB LOW BEING
A SLOWER...STRONGER AND SOUTH. BECAUSE OF THIS...PRECIPITATION
TOTALS HAVE INCREASED IN THE RAP MODEL TO 0.80 TO 1.50 INCHES IN
PARTS OF LARIMER...WELD AND BOULDER COUNTIES. THE HRRR IS ALSO
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION. THE 18Z GFS AND NAM ALSO
HINTED AT THIS AS WELL WITH A SHIFT WESTWARD AND AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION AROUND 12Z. UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND WELD COUNTY TO A BLIZZARD WARNING DUE TO THE
STRONGER WINDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE EASTERN PLAINS TOTALS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER...BUT THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016
AND AWAY WE GO. FIRST OFF...THE RED FLAG WARNING ON THE PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE STRONG WINTER STORM IS STILL ON TRACK TO
AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY MIDNIGHT. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE GUSTY WEST WINDS AS THE STORM MOVES
THROUGH. MOUNTAIN SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH THE STORM QUICKLY EXITING THE STATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
STATE TONIGHT IT IS FORECAST TO FORM A CUT-OFF LOW OVER EAST-
CENTRAL COLORADO THAT MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE WIND WILL ACCOMPANY SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL STRETCH FROM THE WYOMING
BORDER DOWN TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE PLAINS AREAS NOT COVERED BY A BLIZZARD WARNING.
CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS...THE LOWEST LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE EFFECT THAT REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW THAT ACCUMULATES. WINDS CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE THE MAIN JUSTIFICATION FOR THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR ZONES. SNOW
AMOUNTS ON THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE
BLIZZARD WARNING AREA AND 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY ZONE
WHERE STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY...SO WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THAT ZONE. SNOW WILL BE LESS OF A PROBLEM IN THAT
ZONE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OVER THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DIVIDE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016
THE WINTER STORM THAT IMPACTS THE REGION WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER.
SNOW WILL END FROM THE NW TO THE SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEAVING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST ON THE PLAINS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT THAT WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
50S AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SNOW COVER AND WINDS
THURSDAY.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED SNOWFALL TO THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE
PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BEFORE EXITING TO
THE SE BY EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT QG BY SATURDAY WITH A
WINDOW OF FAVORABLE UPSLOPE SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT BY EARLY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE
30S WITH 20S EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME POSSIBLE FOG
FORMING DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE NEAR THE
GROUND.
AFTER THAT SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE
OVER BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. BY MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES WITH THE ONSET OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS 0900-1100Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...18Z. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. STORM ACCUMULATION HAS INCREASED AT
KDEN TO 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH OTHER DENVER AREA AIRPORTS RECEIVING
4 TO 10 INCHES.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ040>046-
048>051.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ031-
033-034.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ038-039.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ036.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ047.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1008 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA...IT WILL BE MILD
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1008 PM EDT...WITH A PERSISTENT S-SE FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING UP THE HUDSON VALLEY
TOWARDS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE FAIRLY CLOUDY DUE TO A
THIN VEIL OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE
STEADY RAINFALL IS STILL WELL OFF THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN NY...SO
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR THE RAIN TO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WON/T ARRIVE IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA UNTIL AROUND 2 AM...AND IT WILL TAKE
UNTIL 5 AM UNTIL IT REACHES THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. IT MAY BE
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE FOR THE RAIN TO REACH INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A
CYCLONE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE AND THE WARM FRONT WILL
HELP INCREASE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. THE H850
SWERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40-55 KTS TAPPING SOME GULF
MOISTURE...AS PWATS SURGE A COUPLE OF STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE
RAIN THAT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL AT TIMES.
WITH THE THIN CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISE OVERNIGHT...ESP AS CLOUDS INCREASE. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE TIME RAIN ARRIVES...SO NO THREAT FOR FZRA
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE INCH OR SO RANGE. BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY BY LUNCHTIME WITH
A FIRST SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION. A SECOND COLD FRONT OR SURGE OF
COLD ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH H850 TEMPS
FALLING TO -1C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST...AND
-1C TO +4C SOUTH AND WEST.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY SPIKE UP A BIT WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THE WIND SHIFT TO THE W TO NW. DEEPER MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE BASED ON THE BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM
A QUARTER TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE
NRN PORTION OF THE HSA. BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND ERN CATSKILLS
NORTH AND WEST...AND LOWER TO M60S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT.
FRI NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND CHILLY TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA. LOWS FALL BACK INTO 20S AND L30S WITH A FEW
TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...A LOVELY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN QUEBEC. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 40S OVER THE MTNS. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT 5-7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. THE SFC HIGH WILL
DRIFT OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT.
SOME CIRRUS MAY START TO DRIFT IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SUNDAY
MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S ACROSS THE ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A S-SW FLOW AT LOW TO MID LEVELS ON EASTERN SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMING ALOFT...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 4
TO 6 DEGREES C BY LATE IN THE DAY.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DUE TO THE NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST
AREAS.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO DEPART...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THE MODELS AREN/T IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE 12Z ECWMF A
LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE STORM SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS WOULD
IMPLY JUST A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE REGION FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD BE A BIT OF A MORE STEADIER
RAINFALL EXTENDING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD EVEN AS SOME WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES WHILE THE PRECIP
STARTS TO DEPART. FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
FOR NOW. WILL GO WITH LOWS ON SUN NIGHT INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S...AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH A LIKELY CHC OF
RAIN. WILL START TO LOWER POPS FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S FOR
TUESDAY.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATE A PERIOD OF DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER...AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS ON TUES NIGHT WILL BE COOL...WITH
20S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS ON WED LOOK TO REACH THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S...WITH WARMER TEMPS ARRIVING BY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE MAKING
THEIR WAY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING RAINFALL DUE TO THIS MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA...MAINLY FOR KPOU/KPSF.
RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY 07Z-09Z AND WILL BE STEADY FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD. IT SHOULD LOWER VSBYS/CIGS BOTH DOWN TO MVFR. CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...WHILE SFC WINDS
WILL BE S-SW AT 5-10 KTS...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 40-50 KTS AT
2 KFT. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO END...AND WINDS TO BECOME
WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESP BY THE
AFTN HOURS. CIGS SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT...AND VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO RETURN FOR ALL SITES BY THE AFTN HOURS AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH RAIN MOVING BACK INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A CYCLONE A COLD FRONT IMPACT
THE REGION. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH AT LEAST
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL TURN BREEZY AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST
10-20 MPH...BUT GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH. RH VALUES WILL FALL BACK DOWN
TO UNDER 40 TO 50 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.
A DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
TUESDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A QUARTER TO TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL. THIS RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME PONDING IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISES ON SOME
RIVERS AND STREAMS.
THE STORM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE ON MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
554 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES EAST TONIGHT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES ON FRIDAY...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT
THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE BULK OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STAY TO THE NORTH. 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN KEEP THE REGION
DRY...BUT THE 12Z GFS HAS THE FRONT SAGGING JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTH TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO ORANGE AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT.
LATEST HRRR KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WILL GO AHEAD AND
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE. GFS HAS ABOUT 1/10 INCH QPF FOR NORTHERN
ZONES...AND THINK THAT IS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...WHICH HAVE NO QPF.
THERE WILL BE A CUTOFF IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER BETWEEN DRIER AIR
TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. LOOKING AT THE
DIVIDING LINE BEING FROM THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND...THROUGH
NYC...AND INTO NE NJ. NORTH OF THAT LINE...GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES...AND SOUTH OF THAT LINE...GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN/AROUND NYC
AND IN THE MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. EASTERN LONG ISLAND MAY
RADIATE FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S IN
THE PINE BARRENS.
THE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN ZONES...IS IF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH STAYS TO THE NORTH...CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES CAN BREAK UP FROM TIME TO TIME. THOSE AREAS
COULD THEN RADIATE...RESULTING IN TEMPS COLDER THAN FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...THEN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST INTO
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE FRONT
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NY/PA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...THE LOCAL CWA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRES OFFSHORE...A DEPARTING FRONT TO THE
NORTH...AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. AN
EASTERLY...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE MORNING...AND THIS
WILL USHER A COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP
OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 IN NYC.
COLD FRONT THEN PRESSES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MOVE INTO
WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER
AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODELS...WITH WITH NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL...NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE
EXTENDED. AS THE MESOSCALE MODEL DATA BEGINS TO COME IN FOR
FRI...IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT LAGS THE INITIAL PREFRONTAL
TROF BY SEVERAL HOURS AND DOES NOT COME THRU THE CWA TIL FRI
AFTERNOON. THE NAM IN FACT IS GENERATING SOME SBCABE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON...OF ABOUT 600-800
J/KG. GIVEN THAT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE MORNING SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE TIME THE FRONT GETS
HERE...ACCORDING TO THE NAM...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED
CHANCES FOR TSTMS ACROSS WRN AREAS AND SHOWERS ERN AREAS INTO FRI
EVE. FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A MID 1020S HIGH BUILDING
IN. A ROUND OF RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE MON INTO TUE AS AN UPR TROF
SWINGS THRU AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THE ECMWF IS AGAIN
MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...BRINGING LOW PRES THRU THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY JUST LIKE THE 12Z RUN YESTERDAY. VERY
CONSISTENT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDS IN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PRODUCING FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH
INTO THURSDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z. STILL UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY
CEILINGS FALL TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. BEST
CHANCES OF ANY LOW CEILINGS WILL BE NORTH OF THE NYC TERMINALS.
AT THIS TIME..CONFIDENCE OF ANY IFR CEILINGS REACHING THE CITY
REMAINS LOW...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WATCH TRENDS. WILL
HAVE A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THE LOW CEILING POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SEABREEZE IS THROUGH KJFK/KGON/KBDR...FLOW MORE WSW-W ELSEWHERE.
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20KT AT KEWR THROUGH AROUND 23-00Z...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING...THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME
EASTERLY 5-10 KT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. S WINDS
G20-25 KT POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LLWS POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ON ANZ355 HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT...AND NOT EXPECTING THE
SEAS TO BUILD BACK UP IN THE NEAR TERM. THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT.
FOR ANZ353...EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL 6 AM AND EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ350 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY AS SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT DURING
THAT TIME.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS AT SCA LEVELS FRI...THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON THE
PROTECTED WATERS FRI NIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE...SO EXPECT A SCA TO BE NEEDED THERE POSSIBLY THRU MIDDAY
SAT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRES WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE WATERS MON INTO TUE
WITH SCA WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...AND
DRY FUELS...EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NE NJ AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY LATE THU NIGHT THRU FRI.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/JMC
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MALOIT/BC
MARINE...MPS/JMC
FIRE WEATHER...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
313 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES EAST TONIGHT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES ON FRIDAY...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT
THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE BULK OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
STAY TO THE NORTH. 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN KEEP THE REGION
DRY...BUT THE 12Z GFS HAS THE FRONT SAGGING JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTH TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES...AS
WELL AS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT. LATEST HRRR KEEPS
PRECIP TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WILL GO AHEAD AND
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE. GFS HAS ABOUT 1/10 INCH QPF FOR NORTHERN
ZONES...AND THINK THAT IS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...WHICH HAVE NO QPF.
THERE WILL BE A CUTOFF IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER BETWEEN DRIER AIR
TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. LOOKING AT THE
DIVIDING LINE BEING FROM THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND...THROUGH
NYC...AND INTO NE NJ. NORTH OF THAT LINE...GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES...AND SOUTH OF THAT LINE...GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN/AROUND NYC
AND IN THE MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. EASTERN LONG ISLAND MAY
RADIATE FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S IN
THE PINE BARRENS.
THE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN ZONES...IS IF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH STAYS TO THE NORTH...CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES CAN BREAK UP FROM TIME TO TIME. THOSE AREAS
COULD THEN RADIATE...RESULTING IN TEMPS COLDER THAN FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...THEN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST INTO
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE FRONT
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NY/PA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...THE LOCAL CWA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRES OFFSHORE...A DEPARTING FRONT TO THE
NORTH...AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. AN
EASTERLY...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE MORNING...AND THIS
WILL USHER A COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP
OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 IN NYC.
COLD FRONT THEN PRESSES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MOVE INTO
WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER
AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODELS...WITH WITH NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL...NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE
EXTENDED. AS THE MESOSCALE MODEL DATA BEGINS TO COME IN FOR
FRI...IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT LAGS THE INITIAL PREFRONTAL
TROF BY SEVERAL HOURS AND DOES NOT COME THRU THE CWA TIL FRI AFTN.
THE NAM IN FACT IS GENERATING SOME SBCABE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON...OF ABOUT 600-800
J/KG. GIVEN THAT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHWRS AND TSTMS IN
THE MRNG SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE TIME THE FRONT GETS HERE...ACCORDING
TO THE NAM...ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD
OF THE FROPA. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED CHCS FOR TSTMS ACROSS WRN
AREAS AND SHWRS ERN AREAS INTO FRI EVE. FAIR WX FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH A MID 1020S HIGH BUILDING IN. A ROUND OF RAIN IS STILL
POSSIBLE MON INTO TUE AS AN UPR TROF SWINGS THRU AND LOW PRES
DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THE ECMWF IS AGAIN MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN
THE GFS...BRINGING LOW PRES THRU THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY JUST LIKE
THE 12Z RUN YESTERDAY. VERY CONSISTENT. KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST.
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PRODUCING
FAIR AND COOL WX.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THROUGH 00Z.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 8-15 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. ANY GUSTS
WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z...AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS
EVENTUALLY BECOME EASTERLY 5-10 KT EARLY THURSDAY.
CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
LOW CIGS GET TONIGHT. SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS CIGS FALLING TO
IFR OR LESS. BEST CHANCES OF ANY LOW CIGS WILL BE NORTH OF THE NYC
TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME..CONFIDENCE OF ANY IFR CIGS REACHING THE
CITY REMAINS LOW...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WATCH TRENDS.
WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THE LOW CEILING GROUP LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY GUSTS COULD REACH 25KT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY GUSTS COULD REACH 25KT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY GUSTS COULD REACH 20-23KT.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY GUSTS COULD REACH 20-23KT.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TO START. THEN VFR BY AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT-FRI...SHOWERS WITH OCNL MVFR/IFR CONDS. ISO TSTMS. S WINDS
15-20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
.MON...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ON ANZ355 HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT...AND NOT EXPECTING THE
SEAS TO BUILD BACK UP IN THE NEAR TERM. THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL
THE SCA FOR HAZ SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT.
FOR ANZ353...EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL 6 AM AND EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ350 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY AS SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT DURING
THAT TIME.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS LIKELY AGAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS AT SCA LVLS FRI...THEN COND IMPROVE ON THE
PROTECTED WATERS FRI NGT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE...SO EXPECT A SCA TO BE NEEDED THERE POSSIBLY THRU MIDDAY
SAT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRES WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE WATERS MON INTO TUE WITH SCA
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...AND
DRY FUELS...EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NE NJ AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY LATE THU NGT THRU FRI.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MPS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
913 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
.UPDATE...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD PUSH OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. LARGE STRATIFORM AREA BEHIND LINE IS ALSO STARTING
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SPREAD LARGE
AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS FORECAST AREA 02Z-08Z...WHICH MAY BE A
BIT OVERDONE AS WE COULD SEE GREATER DECREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS ACTIVITY MOVES OVER MORE STABLE AREA IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR GA COUNTIES. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POP
TREND TO REFLECT HIGH VALUES OVER THE WESTERN PART OF FORECAST
AREA NEXT FEW HOURS... THEN SPREADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WHILE
GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE.
SCATTERED T-STORMS DEVELOPED...POSSIBLY WITH SOME HAIL...OVER OUR
SE COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT IS ALSO ON WEAKENING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BUT DECREASE TO MVFR
AS AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA SPREADS IN LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY S TO SE WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCEC CRITERIA OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MODERATE RISK
FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 64 79 64 76 / 80 70 40 40
SSI 64 76 64 73 / 60 70 40 50
JAX 65 83 66 77 / 60 60 40 50
SGJ 66 83 67 76 / 60 60 40 40
GNV 65 82 67 78 / 80 60 50 50
OCF 65 82 67 81 / 60 60 40 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WOLF/GUILLET/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
843 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
.UPDATE...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE NATION. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BE PASSING TO
THE NORTH OF OUR REGION AND CURRENTLY IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO LIFT
OFF ACROSS AL/GA/CAROLINAS.
HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS
BEEN SUPPORTING AN EXTENSIVE QLCS CLUSTER OF STORM THIS PAST
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WORKING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NOW NORTHEAST GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS GOING TO BE VERY LIMITED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT...THIS LINE OF CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO CONTINUE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL MORE HOUR BY UTILIZING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OWN PROPAGATING COLD
POOL. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT A SOLID BAND OF RAINFALL
REACHES OUR ZONES TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY LATER THIS EVENING.
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE AGREED THAT AT LEAST SOME
FORM OF A CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE NATURE
COAST. WHILE THIS ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE...CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS...WHILE VERY USEFUL IN MANY WAYS...DO NOT ALWAYS HANDLE
COLD POOLS VERY WELL. BASED ON HOW WELL THE LINE HAS BEEN HOLDING
TOGETHER THE PAST FEW HOURS...EVEN WITH THE SLOW LOSS OF DEEP
LAYER FORCING MECHANISMS...HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE THE FORECAST
CHANGES TOWARD HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AFTER 03Z ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST. THE INCREASE IN RAIN POTENTIAL DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN AN
INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE COLD POOL FORCING MAY KEEP SOME
SHALLOWER CONVECTION ROLLING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT THE
CHANCES FOR DEEP AND STRONG UPDRAFTS SEEMS UNLIKELY.
BEFORE THIS AREA ARRIVES...WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH SOME MORE
SCATTERED TYPE CONVECTION THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE
PENINSULA...ASSOCIATED WITH A WAA REGIME AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE. WITH TIME THESE SCT STORMS HAVE
MIGRATED NORTHEASTWARD AND NOW ARE GENERALLY ALL EAST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE OVERALL STRENGTH
OF THE CELLS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE...BUT RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND WAA IS LIKELY TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE RAIN
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST OVER THE INTERIOR ZONES INTO THE LATER
EVENING HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE COMPLICATED AS WE
WAIT TO SEE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD POOL CAN BRING THE
LEFTOVER CONVECTION. THERE ARE JUST ABOUT AS MANY POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS TO THIS QUESTION IN THE GUIDANCE AS THERE ARE GUIDANCE
MODELS. THE OVERALL PUSH SOUTH OF THE COLD POOL WILL EVENTUALLY
WEAKEN...AND THEREFORE...WILL KEEP LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL
JUST HAVE TO UPDATE IF THINGS LOOK AS THOUGH THEY MIGHT PROGRESS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE I-4 CORRIDOR IS A SOUND
DECISION METEOROLOGICALLY.
COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...KEEPING OUR ENTIRE
REGION IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR. SO...WARM...HUMID WITH MORE
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXACT EVOLUTION
WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG WE SEE THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND HANG
OUT OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BUT THE
OVERALL MODE SHOULD BE SEE BREEZE DRIVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
STORMS MIGRATING SLOWLY INLAND WITH TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE PUSHING INLAND FROM TAF SITES AND SHOULD END
AT KLAL BY 02Z. LINE OF STORMS WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM NORTHWEST
LATE EVENING...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN END OF THIS STORM
CLUSTER TO REACH KPIE/KTPA/KLAL. HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW...AND WILL UPDATE FURTHER IF TIMING AND CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL
ARRIVAL INCREASES. ELSEWHERE PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE FOR
SOUTHERN TAF SITES KPGD/KFMY/KRSW LATE AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH WINDS
MOSTLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE MOISTURE...CLOUDS...
AND SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME SEA
FOG OVER THE COOLER WATER AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 71 80 70 82 / 40 50 30 50
FMY 70 84 70 87 / 30 30 20 50
GIF 68 83 69 84 / 50 60 30 60
SRQ 69 78 69 81 / 30 30 30 40
BKV 68 83 66 83 / 50 50 30 60
SPG 70 80 70 82 / 40 40 40 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
940 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL STALL
NEARBY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH SUNDAY IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...WEAKENING BUT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
CONTINUED TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. PER ONGOING TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS
DEPICTED THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WELL THUS FAR...RAISED INITIAL
POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR A FEW HOURS INLAND/SOUTH THEN FOLLOWED THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TOWARD THE
COAST...TAPERING POPS TO LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE WITH TIME TO ACCOUNT
FOR FURTHER WEAKENING. THEN...IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION
COMPLEX POPS DROP TO BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW...ONGOING
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND A POOL OF DOWNDRAFT CAPES 800-900 J/KG
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16/NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WHILE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY
SUPPORT SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION. IF THIS OCCURS...WE MAY BE DEPRIVED OF SOME
MOISTURE MAINTAINED THE BEST HANDLE ON ADVECTION.
NEVERTHELESS...30-35 KT 0-6 KM FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL PUSH
PWATS TO 1.5-1.7" DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
SLOWING DOWN AS IT APPROACHES AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES AN
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD THAT IT MAKES LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS THROUGH
THE AREA BEFORE STALLING.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW EXTENSIVE MOISTURE BELOW 600 MB DURING
THE MORNING WHICH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL OVERRUNNING...WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING. SO DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE THETA-E ADVECTION...LIMITED INSOLATION WILL PREVENT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH MODEL
OUTPUT VARIES...THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL
LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE A
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION. WE DID NOT MAKE
WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ONGOING POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
KEEPING CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN SOUTHEAST GA.
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE 30-35 KT
BULK SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER WE
BELIEVE THE RISK IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY...VERY TRICKY FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THE
FRONT IS LOCATED. MOST MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER THE AREA WITH THE FRONT LINGERING FARTHER TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE DRIER OUTLIER...
KEEPING THE BEST FORCING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN
THE FAIRLY STRONG PERFORMANCE OF THE ECMWF DURING THE LAST
FRONTAL SYSTEM OF SIMILAR NATURE...IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY
DISCOUNT IT. WE KEPT 20-30 POPS OVER NORTHERN AREAS WITH 40-50 FAR
SOUTH. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL BUST POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL VARY BASED ON EXACT FRONTAL LOCATION AND
WHETHER A FEW POCKETS OF SUN APPEAR. WE BUMPED VALUES UP SEVERAL
DEGREES BASED ON MODEL TRENDS WITH A FARTHER NORTH FRONT BUT WE
MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH GIVEN THE 12Z ECMWF PROGS.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A DELUGE OF SHORTWAVES LIFT OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIFT NORTH AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE VORT ENERGY
COMBINED WITH INCREASING JET DIVERGENCE AND PWATS APPROACHING
1.9" WILL YIELD GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. WE
ARE SHOWING SOME LIKELY POPS IN SOUTHEAST GA ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH-
END CHANCE ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S DUE TO
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES PASS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN ADVANCE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS 1.50 TO
1.75 INCHES ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END ONCE COLD FROPA OCCURS ON MONDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
WELL INLAND. A WARMING TREND SHOULD THEN OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT TERMINALS BY 06Z...ESPECIALLY KSAV.
EXPECT AMENDMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND KSAV. OTHERWISE...WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TIME THROUGH THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD...LIMITED PROBABILITY AND UNCERTAIN TIMING PREVENT A
MENTION WITHIN TAFS. SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE REQUIRED
WITHIN SUBSEQUENT PACKAGES. FINALLY...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
MOST OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INTERMITTENT MVFR OR POTENTIALLY IFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT
LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND WAVES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE THROUGH.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS GA WATERS...FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20
KT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM...DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
/LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS
COULD NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM TO 4-5 FT BEYOND.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP OVER THE COOL
NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS CLOSE TO THE WATER
TEMPERATURES /MID 60S/ THIS SEEMS MORE UNLIKELY SO WE DID NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S WINDS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED EARLY
FRIDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL JETTING BUT CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE IN THE
DAY AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SWEEPS THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/RJB/SPR
MARINE...JRL/RJB/SPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
757 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THEN RETURN NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THIS EVENING IS THE APPROACHING LINE OF
CONVECTION FROM THE WEST. IT HAS SHOT WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVERNIGHT...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE CWA IS
PRACTICALLY NIL. HRRR MODEL CAUGHT ON TO THIS CONCEPT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DESPITE THE LACK OF SURFACE INSTABILITY...WE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE DIVERGENT PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET TO HAVE SOME
DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. ADDITIONALLY...A NOTICEABLE MESOSCALE
VORTEX HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE STRONG CONVECTION
IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA THIS EVENING...AND ITS REMNANTS MAY APPROACH
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...PROVIDING SOME
MESOSCALE LIFT. DUE TO THESE TWO FACTORS...I HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDER OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR MARCH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. NOT QUITE WARM ENOUGH TO BE A RECORD
HIGH MIN...THOUGH...WHICH IS 67 AT CAE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AND STALL JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL MOVE BEFORE STALLING. THE NAM MODEL STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ALLOWS THE FRONT TO
SHIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE CSRA. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY.
SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN MIDLANDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH MIDLANDS SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FARTHER SOUTH. SPC DOES
HAVE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK OF STORMS ON FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY MOVING EAST TO CROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF PRECIP SUNDAY THEN AGAIN WITH THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFF THE OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FASTER GFS HAS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
AFFECTING THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF HOLD CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST GEORGIA IS SLOWLY
LIFTING TOWARDS THE CSRA BUT RUNNING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EVENING AS IT APPROACHES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS 00Z-06Z
EXPECTED WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN REACHING AGS/DNL AROUND 02Z-03Z AND
CAE/CUB/OGB 04Z-06Z. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE 08Z-15Z TIME FRAME ALL TERMINALS...THOUGH
LOWER CONFIDENCE AT OGB. FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL CIG IMPROVEMENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME RAIN CHANCES WITH MAINLY LATE
NIGHT/MORNING MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AT TIMES SATURDAY. BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS APPEAR TO BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXCEPT
BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
705 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL STALL
NEARBY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH SUNDAY IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...LIGHTNING TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
UPSTREAM QLCS HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...DESPITE
THE DRIER/MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MOST GUIDANCE COULD BE DEPICTING AN UNREALISTIC DISSIPATION OF
MOST PRECIPITATION BEFORE ARRIVAL ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES LATE THIS
EVENING. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE CONSISTENTLY
PUSHED SHOWERS AT LEAST INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EVEN SUGGEST
THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HOLD TOGETHER ESPECIALLY SOUTH/WEST
OF SAVANNAH...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. GIVEN THE
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION...THE WETTER HRRR SOLUTION
APPEARS MORE REASONABLE AS TIME PASSES. AS A RESULT...BUMPED UP
POPS AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. POPS ARE STILL CAPPED AT CHANCE...WELL BELOW 50
PERCENT...BUT THIS COULD PROVE TO BE CONSERVATIVE AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS PUSH DEEPER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. EVEN GIVEN A POTENTIALLY WETTER SCENARIO...THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ALTHOUGH
REMNANT THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS AND WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL PUSH ONSHORE AND CLIP THE UPPER
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THICKENING
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A STEADY SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...NO COOLER THAN THE MID 60S MOST
LOCALES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WHILE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY
SUPPORT SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION. IF THIS OCCURS...WE MAY BE DEPRIVED OF SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...30-35 KT 0-6 KM FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WILL PUSH PWATS TO 1.5-1.7" DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT APPROACHES AND THE LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD THAT IT MAKES LITTLE
IF ANY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE STALLING.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW EXTENSIVE MOISTURE BELOW 600 MB DURING
THE MORNING WHICH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL OVERRUNNING...WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING. SO DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE THETA-E ADVECTION...LIMITED INSOLATION WILL PREVENT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH MODEL
OUTPUT VARIES...THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL
LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE A
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION. WE DID NOT MAKE
WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ONGOING POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
KEEPING CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN SOUTHEAST GA.
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE 30-35 KT
BULK SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER WE
BELIEVE THE RISK IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY...VERY TRICKY FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THE
FRONT IS LOCATED. MOST MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER THE AREA WITH THE FRONT LINGERING FARTHER TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE DRIER OUTLIER...
KEEPING THE BEST FORCING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN
THE FAIRLY STRONG PERFORMANCE OF THE ECMWF DURING THE LAST
FRONTAL SYSTEM OF SIMILAR NATURE...IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY
DISCOUNT IT. WE KEPT 20-30 POPS OVER NORTHERN AREAS WITH 40-50 FAR
SOUTH. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL BUST POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL VARY BASED ON EXACT FRONTAL LOCATION AND
WHETHER A FEW POCKETS OF SUN APPEAR. WE BUMPED VALUES UP SEVERAL
DEGREES BASED ON MODEL TRENDS WITH A FARTHER NORTH FRONT BUT WE
MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH GIVEN THE 12Z ECMWF PROGS.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A DELUGE OF SHORTWAVES LIFT OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIFT NORTH AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE VORT ENERGY
COMBINED WITH INCREASING JET DIVERGENCE AND PWATS APPROACHING
1.9" WILL YIELD GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. WE
ARE SHOWING SOME LIKELY POPS IN SOUTHEAST GA ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH-
END CHANCE ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S DUE TO
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES PASS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN ADVANCE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS 1.50 TO
1.75 INCHES ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END ONCE COLD FROPA OCCURS ON MONDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
WELL INLAND. A WARMING TREND SHOULD THEN OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...SREF PROBABILITIES FOR LOW CEILINGS REMAIN QUITE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PROGRESS OF
UPSTREAM SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. IF SHOWERS REACH THE TERMINALS...
PERHAPS THE CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CEILINGS WILL
INCREASE. FURTHER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR KSAV AS A COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION...BUT TIMING/COVERAGE OF
ANY CONVECTION REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THUS...WHILE THERE EXIST
MULTIPLE POSSIBLE SOURCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DURING THE 00Z
TAF PERIOD...THE PROBABILITY OF ANY PARTICULAR EVENT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO JUSTIFY ANYTHING OTHER THAN AN OVERALL VFR FORECAST.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD BE REQUIRED OVER THE NEXT
6-12 HOURS. FINALLY...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL JUSTIFY LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INTERMITTENT MVFR OR POTENTIALLY IFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT
LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND WAVES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE THROUGH.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CONDITIONS COULD NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM TO 4-5 FT BEYOND.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP OVER THE COOL
NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS CLOSE TO THE WATER
TEMPERATURES /MID 60S/ THIS SEEMS MORE UNLIKELY SO WE DID NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S WINDS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED EARLY
FRIDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL JETTING BUT CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE IN THE
DAY AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SWEEPS THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB/SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/RJB/SPR
MARINE...JRL/RJB/SPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1252 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.UPDATE...
1151 AM CDT
THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
MY SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS MORNING. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM A COLD 37 DEGREES AT UGN TO THE 40S INLAND.
HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE
60S...SO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY SOUTHERN
CWA WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY AS THIS BOUNDARY TRIES TO MEANDER A
BIT FARTHER NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO
DECREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY. OVERALL...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO RETURN TO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE THE
HIGHEST OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND REALLY INTO WISCONSIN...WHERE
A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVER FOR PRECIPITATION.
FARTHER SOUTH OF MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS IT APPEARS THAT ONLY SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...I HAVE DROPPED POPS OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH ONLY SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
NUMEROUS CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE SHARP
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA...TIMING OF PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SINCE LAST EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE ILLINOIS LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORE TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FA.
VARIOUS HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO
PUSH THE FRONT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING...WHERE IT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL PIVOTING
LATER TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS. BASED ON MODEL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS
FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 925 MB...A 20-25 IS INDICATED FROM THE LAKE
CO IL LAKE SHORE TO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 AT WAUKEGAN TO ABOUT 62-64 IN THE
PONTIAC-LAFAYETTE AREAS. OBVIOUSLY A PRETTY BIG BUST POTENTIAL
EXISTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE FIELD
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE
GRADIENT PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION TIGHTENS THINGS UP EVEN FURTHER.
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TRENDS...CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC DISPLAYS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS WIDESPREAD RETURNS THIS MORNING
THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE FORECASTS SUGGESTED. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE REGION DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE BELOW 600-500 MB
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT DVN AND ILX...AND EXTENDING UPSTREAM
THROUGH SGF AND LZK AS WELL. MARGINALLY MORE HUMID PROFILES WERE
OBSERVED TO THE NORTH AT GRB/APX PRIMARILY DUE TO COLDER COLUMN.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS EAST TEXAS
FROM THE GULF... THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST DEEPER
MOISTURE IS GENERALLY LACKING UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN RELATIVELY NARROW
AXIS OF 1 INCH PWATS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE..SOUNDINGS MAINLY DEPICT SHALLOW SATURATION BELOW
750-800 MB WHICH APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF PRIMARILY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. A PRONOUNCED
WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 700 MB WOULD PROVIDE A FORMIDABLE CAP
FOR BOTH NEAR-SURFACE BASED PARCELS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND
ELEVATED PARCELS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING UNTIL SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE BEST TIMING FOR
A GREATER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY 40-50 KT 850 MB JET...AND INCREASING HEIGHT
FALLS WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH HELPING TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN
AND ERODE THE CAPPING WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS. TIMING OF THIS BETTER
FORCING/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AT OUR DIURNAL MINIMA FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION...THOUGH WITH STRONG DYNAMICS/SHEAR AND SURFACE
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR STORMS THAT CAN ROOT
NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE WFO LOT CWA IN THEIR DAY 1
MARGINAL SEVERE OUTLOOK.
SURFACE LOW THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LAGGING JUST BEHIND IT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHILE COLD AIR BEGINS TO WRAP IN FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW. THERMAL PROFILES COOL IN
RESPONSE...EVENTUALLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX/CHANGE TO WET SNOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF THE I-55 OR I-57 CORRIDORS
ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THIS OCCURS WITHIN TRAILING PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM DEFORMATION ZONE...WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP STILL BEING
PRODUCED...AND SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SLUSHY WET
SNOW ACCUMULATION ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. MID-LEVEL DRYING
SHOULD BRING ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO AN END THURSDAY EVENING.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF OUR MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM. LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE
SURFACE RIDGE MAY ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY...THOUGH SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD IS PROGGED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DRY MOISTURE PROFILES UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY WHEN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...SUGGESTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
MODEL THERMAL FIELDS THROUGH 950-925 MB SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S IN WARMEST SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA...AND LIKELY
ONLY LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL WHERE
ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A CENTRAL
CONUS UPPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SPLIT NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM JETS FOCUSING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE NORTHERN
LOW APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND MOVES ACROSS THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN
LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY...TRACKING FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TO NORTHWEST
OHIO/LAKE ERIE BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS DISTANCE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE SLOWER AND MUCH DEEPER THAN 12Z ECMWF/GEM AND 12Z GEFS
MEAN AND HAVE BASED WEEKEND FORECAST ON A BLEND OF THE NON-GFS
MODELS PARTICULARLY BEYOND THE SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. FROM A
SENSIBLE WEATHER STAND POINT...AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
RELATIVELY MODEST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIP POTENTIAL THEN
LOOKS TO RAMP UP SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SOUTHERN
SURFACE LOW AND INTENSIFICATION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG/WEST OF
THE SURFACE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA. THERMAL PROFILES/THICKNESS FIELDS INDICATE COLUMN IS WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN...THOUGH DECREASING
THICKNESS LATE SUNDAY WOULD INDICATE THAT A A MIX/CHANGE TO SOME
WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS DURING THE EVENING. AFTER
RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH THERMAL FIELDS INDICATING
HIGH TEMPS FROM THE LOW 50S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH...SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONTAL ZONE BISECTS THE CWA. READINGS SUNDAY
WOULD LIKELY RANGE FROM PERHAPS 50 AROUND ROCKFORD TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WOULD MAKE
FOR CHILLIER TEMPS AROUND 40/LOW 40S NEAR THE SHORE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND
LINGERS TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS MONDAY TEMPS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE...WITH TUESDAY TEMP
RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE THOUGH
COOLER ALONG THE LAKE.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
MEANDERING STATIONARY FRONT HAS SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHEAST THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT A FEW PEEKS
OF SUNSHINE MAY SCATTER THE ASOS OBS BRIEFLY FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
THE SFC-7KFT LAYER WILL MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER 23Z...ALLOWING
RAIN AND FOG TO DROP CIGS TO IFR CATEGORY. THE FRONT DOES APPEAR
TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND WILL KEEP GYY WINDS VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE SITES WILL SEE THE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE.
IFR DRIZZLE AND RAIN WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AS THE 997 MB LOW
APPROACHES. THERE IS AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR THUNDER IN THE MID
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MEETS A QUICK UPTICK IN OMEGA
VALUES THRU 15Z. BEYOND THAT...THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ON THURSDAY
EVENING WILL PRESENT A BRIEF CHANCE FOR NON ACCUMULATING SNOW AT
ORD.
MM
&&
.MARINE...
306 AM CDT
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF LAKE MICHIGAN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS SAGGED TO THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS
TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE WHERE WINDS
WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER NEAR THE FRONTAL TROUGH. THE LOW WILL PASS
SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTH
AND GALES SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE. GALES
SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ON
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE LAKE. FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESUMES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1222 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016
Rather tricky forecast for parts of the area. Latest surface map
showed the frontal boundary draped over the far northern CWA,
generally along a Burlington IA to Watseka line. Temperatures
north of the front area (Galesburg to El Paso) in the mid-upper
40s, while the remainder of the forecast area is mainly in the
upper 50s to lower 60s at 10 am. Latest high-resolution models as
well as the morning NAM run show very little movement of this
boundary through the evening, until low pressure over the central
Plains rides along the boundary and and nudges it northward later
tonight. Did some fairly extensive editing of the wind/temperature
grids over the far northern CWA through tonight to try and account
for these subtle differences, using the HRRR as guidance, and
lowered highs today over the extreme north. Meanwhile, over in
east central Illinois, extensive morning sunshine has allowed some
of the stronger winds to mix toward the surface, and gusts near
Champaign and Decatur have reached close to 40 mph. RAP guidance
indicating this hole should fill in toward midday as some mid-
level clouds move in from the west. Raised temperatures a tad in
most areas given the strong southerly flow and temperatures
already into the lower 60s.
Some isolated showers tracked over the forecast area earlier,
mainly near the Illinois River, and some more may occur this
afternoon, but main time frame still looks to be tonight. Latest
HRRR showing convective line forming over western Missouri around
sunset and tracking east, reaching western Illinois toward
midnight, a tad slower than earlier ARW/NMM runs. Made some timing
adjustments on the rain trends for tonight as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016
08z/3am surface analysis shows 992mb low over western Kansas, with
stationary frontal boundary extending E/NE to the southern Great
Lakes. Regional obs suggest the front is generally along/south of
the I-80 corridor, with all but the extreme NW KILX CWA in the warm
sector. Front will remain stationary early this morning, then will
tend to edge back northward a bit as low pressure begins to approach
from the west. As has been noted for the past several days, little
to no forcing will be present within the warm sector and forecast
soundings remain unsaturated. While the NAM is trying to develop a
3000-4000ft cloud layer at 1500ft aloft, the Rapid Refresh maintains
a much higher cloud deck and an overall drier profile. Current
satellite imagery shows plenty of high clouds, with the nearest low
cloud cover across east Texas into Arkansas. As a result, will side
with the Rapid Refresh for the short-term forecast. Am therefore
expecting a mostly cloudy but dry day across much of the area, with
perhaps a few isolated showers from Peoria northward in closer
proximity to the boundary. Will be another breezy day as well, with
southerly winds gusting to between 25 and 30 mph across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA. High temperatures will mainly be in the
upper 60s to around 70 degrees...but will remain in the lower 60s
across the far north around Galesburg and Lacon.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016
Low pressure will track from Kansas City this evening to near Moline
by Thursday morning. NAM develops a broken line of convection well
ahead of the trailing cold front across western Missouri...then
pushes it eastward into west-central Illinois toward midnight. While
the airmass steadily destabilizes across Illinois, the primary
instability axis appears to remain displaced to the west behind the
convection. This will likely reduce the risk for widespread severe
weather as the storms arrive: however, some of the storms may become
strong, producing gusty winds and hail. Latest Day 2 convective
outlook from SPC highlights locations southwest of a Canton to
Lincoln line for potential severe. Will carry categorical PoPs for
showers/thunder west of the I-55 corridor during the evening, then
further east across the remainder after midnight.
While primary line of storms will likely weaken and push into
Indiana late tonight, the actual cold front will remain west of the
Mississippi River until mid to late Thursday morning. As such, have
continued likely showers and a chance of thunder across the board
through Thursday morning. Once the front passes, a few showers will
linger into the afternoon before coming to an end.
After that, cool/dry weather will be on tap for Friday before the
next system begins to approach from the west over the weekend.
Considerable model spread exists, with the GFS being the most
inconsistent model run-to-run. Have generally disregarded the GFS
in favor of the ECMWF/GEM consensus which continues to show a system
passing through Illinois on Sunday. Resulting rain chances are
therefore highest from Saturday night through Sunday night,
followed by a return to dry weather for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016
Frontal boundary roughly along a KBRL-KPNT line is a focus for
concern regarding winds at KPIA and KBMI this afternoon. High-
resolution models show some drifting of this front a bit
southward this afternoon, before pulling back north toward mid-
evening. Gusty south winds south of the front turn east-northeast
on the other side of the boundary. Have added a period of such a
wind shift at KPIA for mid afternoon and early evening. KBMI is
less certain and left the winds southerly there, but dropped off
the gusts late afternoon with the boundary nearly overhead. Aside
from this front, general trend much of the TAF period will be with
gusty southerly winds, trending more toward the southwest late in
the period as a surface low moves into central Illinois.
Area of low VFR/high MVFR ceilings currently over the lower Ohio
Valley and extending as far north as KMTO/KDNV. May see MVFR
conditions develop at KCMI as early as late afternoon, but the
overall thought is a mid-late evening development at the remainder
of central Illinois TAF sites as some convection approaches from
the west. Made some refinements in timing of the showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Most should be out by 12Z with a
temporary dry slot, but a few may develop again late Thursday
morning with the arrival of the low.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1151 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.UPDATE...
1151 AM CDT
THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
MY SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS MORNING. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM A COLD 37 DEGREES AT UGN TO THE 40S INLAND.
HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE
60S...SO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY SOUTHERN
CWA WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY AS THIS BOUNDARY TRIES TO MEANDER A
BIT FARTHER NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO
DECREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY. OVERALL...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO RETURN TO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE THE
HIGHEST OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND REALLY INTO WISCONSIN...WHERE
A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVER FOR PRECIPITATION.
FARTHER SOUTH OF MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS IT APPEARS THAT ONLY SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...I HAVE DROPPED POPS OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH ONLY SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
NUMEROUS CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE SHARP
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA...TIMING OF PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SINCE LAST EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE ILLINOIS LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORE TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FA.
VARIOUS HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO
PUSH THE FRONT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING...WHERE IT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL PIVOTING
LATER TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS. BASED ON MODEL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS
FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 925 MB...A 20-25 IS INDICATED FROM THE LAKE
CO IL LAKE SHORE TO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 AT WAUKEGAN TO ABOUT 62-64 IN THE
PONTIAC-LAFAYETTE AREAS. OBVIOUSLY A PRETTY BIG BUST POTENTIAL
EXISTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE FIELD
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE
GRADIENT PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION TIGHTENS THINGS UP EVEN FURTHER.
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TRENDS...CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC DISPLAYS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS WIDESPREAD RETURNS THIS MORNING
THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE FORECASTS SUGGESTED. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE REGION DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE BELOW 600-500 MB
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT DVN AND ILX...AND EXTENDING UPSTREAM
THROUGH SGF AND LZK AS WELL. MARGINALLY MORE HUMID PROFILES WERE
OBSERVED TO THE NORTH AT GRB/APX PRIMARILY DUE TO COLDER COLUMN.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS EAST TEXAS
FROM THE GULF... THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST DEEPER
MOISTURE IS GENERALLY LACKING UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN RELATIVELY NARROW
AXIS OF 1 INCH PWATS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE..SOUNDINGS MAINLY DEPICT SHALLOW SATURATION BELOW
750-800 MB WHICH APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF PRIMARILY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. A PRONOUNCED
WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 700 MB WOULD PROVIDE A FORMIDABLE CAP
FOR BOTH NEAR-SURFACE BASED PARCELS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND
ELEVATED PARCELS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING UNTIL SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE BEST TIMING FOR
A GREATER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY 40-50 KT 850 MB JET...AND INCREASING HEIGHT
FALLS WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH HELPING TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN
AND ERODE THE CAPPING WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS. TIMING OF THIS BETTER
FORCING/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AT OUR DIURNAL MINIMA FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION...THOUGH WITH STRONG DYNAMICS/SHEAR AND SURFACE
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR STORMS THAT CAN ROOT
NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE WFO LOT CWA IN THEIR DAY 1
MARGINAL SEVERE OUTLOOK.
SURFACE LOW THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LAGGING JUST BEHIND IT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHILE COLD AIR BEGINS TO WRAP IN FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW. THERMAL PROFILES COOL IN
RESPONSE...EVENTUALLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX/CHANGE TO WET SNOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF THE I-55 OR I-57 CORRIDORS
ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THIS OCCURS WITHIN TRAILING PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM DEFORMATION ZONE...WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP STILL BEING
PRODUCED...AND SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SLUSHY WET
SNOW ACCUMULATION ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. MID-LEVEL DRYING
SHOULD BRING ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO AN END THURSDAY EVENING.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF OUR MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM. LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE
SURFACE RIDGE MAY ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY...THOUGH SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD IS PROGGED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DRY MOISTURE PROFILES UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY WHEN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...SUGGESTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
MODEL THERMAL FIELDS THROUGH 950-925 MB SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S IN WARMEST SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA...AND LIKELY
ONLY LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL WHERE
ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A CENTRAL
CONUS UPPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SPLIT NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM JETS FOCUSING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE NORTHERN
LOW APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND MOVES ACROSS THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN
LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY...TRACKING FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TO NORTHWEST
OHIO/LAKE ERIE BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS DISTANCE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE SLOWER AND MUCH DEEPER THAN 12Z ECMWF/GEM AND 12Z GEFS
MEAN AND HAVE BASED WEEKEND FORECAST ON A BLEND OF THE NON-GFS
MODELS PARTICULARLY BEYOND THE SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. FROM A
SENSIBLE WEATHER STAND POINT...AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
RELATIVELY MODEST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIP POTENTIAL THEN
LOOKS TO RAMP UP SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SOUTHERN
SURFACE LOW AND INTENSIFICATION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG/WEST OF
THE SURFACE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA. THERMAL PROFILES/THICKNESS FIELDS INDICATE COLUMN IS WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN...THOUGH DECREASING
THICKNESS LATE SUNDAY WOULD INDICATE THAT A A MIX/CHANGE TO SOME
WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS DURING THE EVENING. AFTER
RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH THERMAL FIELDS INDICATING
HIGH TEMPS FROM THE LOW 50S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH...SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONTAL ZONE BISECTS THE CWA. READINGS SUNDAY
WOULD LIKELY RANGE FROM PERHAPS 50 AROUND ROCKFORD TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WOULD MAKE
FOR CHILLIER TEMPS AROUND 40/LOW 40S NEAR THE SHORE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND
LINGERS TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS MONDAY TEMPS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE...WITH TUESDAY TEMP
RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE THOUGH
COOLER ALONG THE LAKE.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY MOVED JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND IFR CONDITIONS
SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THINK THAT CIGS WILL
TREND UP SLIGHTLY TO LOW END MVFR AROUND 012 DIURNALLY AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS
LOW. RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REDUCE CONDITIONS
BACK TO IFR ONCE AGAIN. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF AN ON
THROUGH THE EVENING AND SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN DRY MID
LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WHICH MAY ALLOW PRECIP TO TAPER TO A
LIGHT DRIZZLE. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK NORTH SLIGHTLY
THIS EVENING. WHILE SOME MODELS BRING IT BACK THROUGH THE
TERMINALS TURNING WINDS SOUTHERLY...MOST MODELS ONLY BRING IT UP
TO GYY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS. AS THE FRONT NEARS HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
MAY FURTHER LOWER WITH FOG BECOMING A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
306 AM CDT
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF LAKE MICHIGAN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS SAGGED TO THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS
TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE WHERE WINDS
WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER NEAR THE FRONTAL TROUGH. THE LOW WILL PASS
SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTH
AND GALES SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE. GALES
SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ON
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE LAKE. FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESUMES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1028 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016
Rather tricky forecast for parts of the area. Latest surface map
showed the frontal boundary draped over the far northern CWA,
generally along a Burlington IA to Watseka line. Temperatures
north of the front area (Galesburg to El Paso) in the mid-upper
40s, while the remainder of the forecast area is mainly in the
upper 50s to lower 60s at 10 am. Latest high-resolution models as
well as the morning NAM run show very little movement of this
boundary through the evening, until low pressure over the central
Plains rides along the boundary and and nudges it northward later
tonight. Did some fairly extensive editing of the wind/temperature
grids over the far northern CWA through tonight to try and account
for these subtle differences, using the HRRR as guidance, and
lowered highs today over the extreme north. Meanwhile, over in
east central Illinois, extensive morning sunshine has allowed some
of the stronger winds to mix toward the surface, and gusts near
Champaign and Decatur have reached close to 40 mph. RAP guidance
indicating this hole should fill in toward midday as some mid-
level clouds move in from the west. Raised temperatures a tad in
most areas given the strong southerly flow and temperatures
already into the lower 60s.
Some isolated showers tracked over the forecast area earlier,
mainly near the Illinois River, and some more may occur this
afternoon, but main time frame still looks to be tonight. Latest
HRRR showing convective line forming over western Missouri around
sunset and tracking east, reaching western Illinois toward
midnight, a tad slower than earlier ARW/NMM runs. Made some timing
adjustments on the rain trends for tonight as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016
08z/3am surface analysis shows 992mb low over western Kansas, with
stationary frontal boundary extending E/NE to the southern Great
Lakes. Regional obs suggest the front is generally along/south of
the I-80 corridor, with all but the extreme NW KILX CWA in the warm
sector. Front will remain stationary early this morning, then will
tend to edge back northward a bit as low pressure begins to approach
from the west. As has been noted for the past several days, little
to no forcing will be present within the warm sector and forecast
soundings remain unsaturated. While the NAM is trying to develop a
3000-4000ft cloud layer at 1500ft aloft, the Rapid Refresh maintains
a much higher cloud deck and an overall drier profile. Current
satellite imagery shows plenty of high clouds, with the nearest low
cloud cover across east Texas into Arkansas. As a result, will side
with the Rapid Refresh for the short-term forecast. Am therefore
expecting a mostly cloudy but dry day across much of the area, with
perhaps a few isolated showers from Peoria northward in closer
proximity to the boundary. Will be another breezy day as well, with
southerly winds gusting to between 25 and 30 mph across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA. High temperatures will mainly be in the
upper 60s to around 70 degrees...but will remain in the lower 60s
across the far north around Galesburg and Lacon.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016
Low pressure will track from Kansas City this evening to near Moline
by Thursday morning. NAM develops a broken line of convection well
ahead of the trailing cold front across western Missouri...then
pushes it eastward into west-central Illinois toward midnight. While
the airmass steadily destabilizes across Illinois, the primary
instability axis appears to remain displaced to the west behind the
convection. This will likely reduce the risk for widespread severe
weather as the storms arrive: however, some of the storms may become
strong, producing gusty winds and hail. Latest Day 2 convective
outlook from SPC highlights locations southwest of a Canton to
Lincoln line for potential severe. Will carry categorical PoPs for
showers/thunder west of the I-55 corridor during the evening, then
further east across the remainder after midnight.
While primary line of storms will likely weaken and push into
Indiana late tonight, the actual cold front will remain west of the
Mississippi River until mid to late Thursday morning. As such, have
continued likely showers and a chance of thunder across the board
through Thursday morning. Once the front passes, a few showers will
linger into the afternoon before coming to an end.
After that, cool/dry weather will be on tap for Friday before the
next system begins to approach from the west over the weekend.
Considerable model spread exists, with the GFS being the most
inconsistent model run-to-run. Have generally disregarded the GFS
in favor of the ECMWF/GEM consensus which continues to show a system
passing through Illinois on Sunday. Resulting rain chances are
therefore highest from Saturday night through Sunday night,
followed by a return to dry weather for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016
VFR conditions are expected into early this afternoon before we
start to see a trend towards MVFR cigs after 20z based on the
RAP soundings. Operational forecast models have been too
aggressive in bringing low level moisture northward into our
area today and have been backing off the arrival times with
the last few runs. Based on the high res soundings off the
RAP and HRRR, will bring cigs down to or just below 3000 feet
starting in the 20z-22z time frame across SPI and PIA with
later start times in our eastern TAF sites. It appears the
more likely time frame for any TSRA will be towards 05z at
SPI but will only keep VCTS going this far out in the forecast
time frame. Gusty southerly winds will continue today and
tonight with sustained winds at 12 to 17 kts with gusts to 25
kts at times.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1230 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.UPDATE...
1015 PM CDT
LATE UPDATE ON A TRICKY FORECAST INTO TOMORROW. OBSERVED 00Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE
AREA...SO LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT TO SLOWLY COME UP
TO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE NORTH OF I-80 PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK...WHICH IS LIKELY STILL TOO HIGH FOR MOST AREAS. SUSPECT
THAT POPS WILL BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED AS WELL UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON PER LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING 00Z NAM. AREAS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT COULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE ENTIRE DAYLIGHT PERIOD. MARINE
AIRMASS NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL SET UP JUST SOUTH OF
I-80 COULD ENABLE SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE...AND POSSIBLY
LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD THE FAR NORTHEAST IL SHORE...WITH THIS
SCENARIO POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE
SYNOPTICALLY. SLOWED MENTION OF FOG IN THE HOURLY GRIDS TO THE
PREDAWN HOURS GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OVERALL TAILORED GRIDS
TO FAVOR STATIONARY FRONT POSITION A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER A BIT SOUTH OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAIN SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
221 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
DESPITE CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S ACROSS
VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SINKS SOUTH.
AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES OVER KANSAS.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL SINK BY DAWN. THINKING THE FRONT WILL DIP INTO
NORTHERN IL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BE AROUND THE I-88 CORRIDOR BY DAWN.
WHILE THE WHOLE AREA WILL BE CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...OTHER CONDITIONS
WILL VARY ALONG THE FRONT. AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE LOWS
IN THE LOW 40S TO THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE ALONG
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS TO 15 MPH. WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS WILL LIE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SO CONDITIONS MAY DIFFER FROM THE CURRENT
FORECAST DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP.
FOR RAIN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE FEATURE
SATURATION THROUGH THE FREEZING LEVEL AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF OMEGA.
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN/DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE FRONT/I-88
ESPECIALLY AFTER 4AM CDT. SOUNDINGS FURTHER SOUTH SATURATE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MINOR OMEGA VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING.
CAPPED POPS TO THE CHANCE RANGE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE DUE TO A
LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN FORCING AND THE FRONTS LOCATION.
ALSO EXPECTING FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE INVERSION FORMS.
GUIDANCE FEATURES FOG FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE AND
THINKING SOME OF THE FOG WILL MOVE OVER LAND WITH THE EAST WINDS.
THE DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND MOIST CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN FOG.
NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
234 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG LAKE ENHANCED FRONT WILL LIKELY BISECT THE AREA WED
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SETTING UP CLOSE TO I-80 AND LIKELY A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NORTH OF
THE FRONT BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE CHILLY LAKE WILL
RESULT IN A VERY STRONG AND SHALLOW INVERSION...BENEATH WHICH
MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED RESULTING IN A LOW OVERCAST. AS
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT CLIMB INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...THE
MARINE LAYER DISPLACING THAT MOIST AIR COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY
DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BLEEDING INLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT
NORTH OF THE FRONT. HIGHS TOMORROW NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN
THE 40S...THOUGH POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE NE IL
LAKEFRONT RANGING INTO THE 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
GUIDANCE ALL HAS LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY SUPPORT MORE OF A
DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS LIGHT RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER ABOVE THE
THICK STRATUS DECK. STEEP LAPSE RATES DO EXIST ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION...HOWEVER BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING LOOKS TO SET UP TO
OUR NORTH OVER WI. SOUTH OF THE FRONT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK SMALL
AND HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME THOUGH PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH.
STRONG FRONT MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTH SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT BATTLING
AGAINST THE COLD LAKE AS SURFACE LOW RIDES THE FRONT INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. AGAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
FOG...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOULD SEE AN
UPTICK IN PRECIP NORTH OF THE FRONT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR PERHAPS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM THURSDAY USHERING IN COLDER AIR TO AREAS THAT MADE IT
INTO THE WARM SECTOR...AND PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF CHILLY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SOME
WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BIT OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT CHANCES LOOK LOW AND KEPT
ACCUMS OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEXT SYSTEM
ALREADY RESULTING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AND RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF VARY IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY HANGS BACK IN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WITH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO LOWER THAN AVG FORECAST CONFIDENCE. DOES APPEAR TO BE
SOME AGREEMENT IN THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME RAIN THIS WEEKEND BEING
IN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES WOULD
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK IF ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVING THE TROUGH OUT QUICKER. GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS FROM THE BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
CHALLENGING FORECAST ON TAP WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON
WINDS...CIGS...AND PRECIP TIMING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED
OVER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY SITTING BETWEEN MDW
AND GYY AT 05Z. BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE TERMINALS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT EITHER
OVERNIGHT OR AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
VERY QUITE A WIDE RANGE IN VARIANCE ON WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL
START WITH SOME SUGGESTING IT SHOULD ALREADY BE RAINING WHILE
OTHERS HOLD OFF WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN CURRENT
CONDITIONS ON RADAR WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH-BASED ECHOES ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...LEANING TOWARDS SOME OF
THE LATER TIMING FOR PRECIP ARRIVAL.
LOW CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...AND ARE ALREADY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN INTO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
ONCE AGAIN MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THOUGH WITH SOME MODELS
HONING IN ON THE 12-15Z TIMEFRAME WHILE THE CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL ERR SLOWER/LATER WHICH SEEMS TO BE
THE THEME SO FAR FOR THIS EVENT...BUT WILL PROBABLY KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON PWK OB OVERNIGHT.
FINALLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING
OVER THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO THE SOUTH. WE SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW...HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW
TOMORROW...THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD. WITH
REINFORCING COLD AIR OFF THE LAKE THAT WILL SLOW ANY NORTHWARD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...HAVE AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
STAYING NORTHEASTERLY FOR ORD...WITH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY
FOR MDW AND ESPECIALLY GYY WHICH SEVERAL MODELS DO SHOW WILL TURN
SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERLY FOR A WHILE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
234 PM CDT
FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD COMING UP ON THE LAKE. DEEPENING LOW OVER THE
PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW OVER ALL BUT
FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETTER CHANCE OF GALES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT NOW NORTHERN OPEN LAKE SO HAVE DELAYED START TIME
OF THE GALE WATCH A BIT. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS A PERIOD OF STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND TIGHT GRADIENT WOULD SUPPORT PERIOD OF
NORTHERLY GALES...PERHAPS HIGH END GALES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE GALE WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AS WELL AS THE OPEN LAKE.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP TO WILMETTE HARBORS UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1140 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
The 00z ILX and DVN soundings indicated plenty of dry air below
500 mb across the area. The cold front appears to have moved south
to the Illinois-Wisconsin border, with a band of AC clouds showing
up on radar along the front. The dry low level air will be tough
to overcome in the initial stages of this precip event. Our
counties look to remain dry through at least sunrise, so have
removed all PoPs from the grids through 12z/7am. The farthest
south the front appears to reach is around 18z/1pm tomorrow, when
it approaches near northern Stark Co, then returns north as low
pressure approaches western IL and southerly low level flow works
to push the front back north.
There is reasonable agreement in the 00z models that low level
moisture below the 700 mb inversion will increase enough for some
low clouds to develop toward sunrise or shortly after, especially
along and north of I-74. Otherwise, a blanket of cirrus clouds
will prevail overnight. That layer of clouds along with steady
south winds will be enough to keep low temps well above normal in
the lower 50s across the board.
Overall, the forecast grids were in good shape, and other than the
removal of precip, only minor adjustments were done to
temp/dewpoint/wind grids. Updated info is already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Earlier mid and high clouds over the northern CWA has been lifting a
bit northward this afternoon, but plenty more are advancing across
Missouri and will overspread central Illinois through early evening.
Wind gusts over 30 mph are becoming more common east of I-55 and the
highest gusts the last several hours have been from Bloomington to
Champaign, where they are now reaching 40 mph as of 2 pm. Over the
Wind Advisory area of southeast Illinois, the gusts have been a bit
slower to ramp up, but gusts to around 35 mph are more common. This
is below advisory criteria, but the RAP and HRRR suggest a bit more
increase the remainder of the afternoon, so will let the advisory
ride for now.
Latest surface map showing frontal boundary draped from northern
Lake Michigan into central Iowa and into the central Plains. While
the boundary will sag southward tonight, it is progged by all the
models to only reach about the I-80 corridor by sunrise, with most
of the models keeping any precipitation near or north of it. Have
maintained some 20% PoP`s late tonight north and west of Peoria, as
the GFS and RAP hint at a bit of development toward sunrise, but
general thought is that the night should largely remain dry. Few
changes made to low temperatures, with lower 50s prevailing over the
entire forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
One more breezy and unseasonably warm day is anticipated across
central and southeast Illinois on Wednesday. It will be dry for the
most part as well. The models have slowed a bit on the passage of an
approaching storm system, with the GFS slowing most considerably and
now close to matching the bulk of the other models. Have removed
thunderstorm mention from the daytime hours Wednesday. With the
slightly slower track of the system, the instability axis ahead of
the system`s cold front does not reach the forecast area until well
into the evening. Also, forecast soundings suggest strong capping in
place until just ahead of the front. Have maintained high PoPs
through most of Wednesday night, and kept thunderstorm chances in
place until FROPA (late Wednesday night into midday Thursday). The
precipitation associated with the system should pull east of the
area before temperatures fall far enough to support much in the way
of snow.
Cooler temperatures, but still near normal for late March, will
surge into the area to finish the week. The week should finish up
fairly quiet weather-wise as well, although a frontal system
approaching by late Saturday will bring rain chances back into the
area. While some spread still exists, model guidance is starting to
agree on a more progressive front, which would result in
precipitation chances pulling out by Sunday night. However, given
the lingering uncertainty/spread, left low PoPs in place into
Monday. If the progressive front suggested by the latest model runs
persists, Sunday night/Monday will end up dry.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
A cold front draped across northern Illinois has drifted south to
a line from the Quad Cities to Chicago. It is expected to stall
out in that general area through early afternoon tomorrow, when it
will begin a northward push in response to low pressure
approaching IL from the west. Precipitation chances in our
forecast area over the next 24 hours look to be limited by a dry
airmass initially, then a strong inversion centered at 700 mb
tomorrow will limit updraft potential during the afternoon and
evening. Light rain chances through 12z tonight should remain
north of our terminal sites, but borderline MVFR clouds will
develop as far south as the I-74 corridor tomorrow morning and
linger through the day. Have included prevailing MVFR clouds at
PIA and BMI after 14z, with MVFR ceilings developing across the
southern terminals after 20z-21z. The best instability is forecast
after the end of this TAF period, as the cold front pushes across
IL. Therefore have not included thunder in this TAF issuance.
Thunder chances could begin to increase as early as 03z/10pm,
according to instability params. Omega fields point toward
potential for prevailing rain across the northern terminals after
24/03z. Only included VCSH for SPI and DEC tomorrow evening for
now.
Winds will be southerly throughout this TAF period, with a few
gusts to 20-25kt still occurring the rest of tonight. Gusts to
25-30kt will return at all TAF sites tomorrow, with gusts
continuing into early evening.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
143 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL APPROACH THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT
AS THIS DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
RESOLVING NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ALONG WITH
TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY.
FOR TODAY...MID/UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH
PRIMARY UPPER FORCING BEGINNING TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALES WILL CONTINUE TO
RACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BUT WILL BE WEAK IN NATURE
WITH BROAD CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW PERSISTING. A NOTABLE UPSWING
IN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING HOWEVER
AS A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. AFOREMENTIONED
CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ROCKIES PV
ANOMALY WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
FORCING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. AS FAR SOUTH AS LOCAL AREA...A
COUPLE OF COMPLICATING FACTORS TO CONSIDER REGARDING
TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF PRECIP CHANCES. FORECAST BUFFER
SOUNDINGS/SHORT TERM MODEL PROGS DEPICT LOCAL AREA UNDER INFLUENCE
OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH MAY LIMIT DEPTH OF BETTER RH.
BULK OF GUIDANCE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY OVERDOING NEAR SFC
MOISTURE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE HRRR MAY BE A BIT TOO
DRY WITH NEAR SFC/LOW LEVELS...HAVE GENERALLY BOUGHT IN ON LATEST
HRRR TRENDS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING GIVEN FACTORS
ABOVE. DID MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE BECOMES A BIT MORE
PRONOUNCED...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING EVEN ACROSS THE NORTH. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...MORE DIVORCED
FROM STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS FORCING.
THICKER LOW CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO BE SOMEWHAT MORE DELAYED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...SO DID TREND TEMPS UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW TO MEDIUM SIDE IN REGARDS
TO TEMPERATURES HOWEVER GIVEN LOW LEVEL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING MORE SUBSTANTIAL
LOW CLOUD/RAIN SHOWER TIMING. LAKESHORE AREAS MAY REMAIN ANCHORED
AROUND 50 OR IN THE LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
CRUX OF OUR RAIN EVENT WILL UNFOLD LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH/PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA. GOOD CVA/HEIGHT FALLS AND STEADY WARM/MOIST AIR
ADVECTION (PUSHING 295K MIXING RATIOS TO AROUND 8 G/KG) WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THAT TIME. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 50KT LLJ OVER OUR CWA
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND MAGNITUDE OF RESULTANT THETA-E
ADVECTION WITHIN THIS LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT BUT
MARGINAL STATIC INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND PREVENT ANY
SEVERE CONCERNS. REDUCED STABILITY COULD HOWEVER LEAD TO SOME
DECENT QPF TOTALS GIVEN DEEP LAYER OF STRONG OMEGA AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE (PW VALUES OVER AN INCH). AROUND 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCALES...PARTICULARLY IN OUR NORTH. RECENT DRY SPELL HAS ALLOWED
AREA RIVERS TO COME DOWN QUITE A BIT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THIS QPF WITH LITTLE TO NO FLOODING CONCERNS.
OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST WITH THIS EVENT IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET
SNOW TO MIX IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THIS ALSO CORRELATES TO LOSS OF BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE AS SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. VERY LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR PRECIP AT ALL BY THE TIME SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR
ARRIVES WITH BETTER DEFORMATION LOCKED TO OUR NORTH AND QUICKLY
LIFTING. EXPECT JUST A FEW SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST THAT WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE GIVEN WARM/WET GROUND CONDITIONS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL END BY FRIDAY MORNING AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND
AVA/SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY BUILD.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL LOOKING DRY AND RELATIVELY PLEASANT.
FRIDAY STARTS OFF COOL BUT SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND LATE MARCH SUN TAKES
ITS TOLL. MUCH WARMER ON SATURDAY BUT WILL START TO SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. NEXT FRONT WILL
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME LARGE
INCONSISTENCIES WITH HOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE BUT SHOULD
BE JUST ANOTHER RAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
CONTINUED/MORE AGRESSIVE DELAY IN INTRODUCTION OF DEGRADED FLYING
CONDITIONS PER RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
OUTPUT. STILL WITH TIME AGREESIVE TOP/DOWN SATURATION AIDED BY
PROXIMITY OF STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING W-E ALONG TOLL
ROAD...DOWN TO IFR MET CONDITIONS AND NEAR CONSTANTLY DEGRADED
THROUGH THE DAY. LESSER CONFIDENCE FOR AS LOW CIGS AT FARTHER
SOUTH INVOF KFWA AND HELD TO PREDOMINANT FUELING/ALTERNATE LEVELS.
FURTHERMORE THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR TSRA ON THU
/12-16 UTC AT KSBN TO 14-18 UTC AT KFWA/ WITH SLIGHTLY HIR PROB OF
OCCURENCE AT KFWA VS KSBN...THOUGH TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
INCLUSION.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MUPRHY
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
700 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL APPROACH THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...TO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
RESOLVING NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ALONG WITH TIMING/MAGNITUDE
OF PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
FOR TODAY.
FOR TODAY...MID/UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH
PRIMARY UPPER FORCING BEGINNING TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALES WILL CONTINUE TO
RACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BUT WILL BE WEAK IN NATURE
WITH BROAD CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW PERSISTING. A NOTABLE UPSWING
IN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING HOWEVER
AS A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. AFOREMENTIONED
CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ROCKIES PV
ANOMALY WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
FORCING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. AS FAR SOUTH AS LOCAL AREA...A
COUPLE OF COMPLICATING FACTORS TO CONSIDER REGARDING TIMING/MAGNITUDE
OF PRECIP CHANCES. FORECAST BUFFER SOUNDINGS/SHORT TERM MODEL
PROGS DEPICT LOCAL AREA UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WHICH MAY LIMIT DEPTH OF BETTER RH. BULK OF GUIDANCE ALSO
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY OVERDOING NEAR SFC MOISTURE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE HRRR MAY BE A BIT TOO DRY WITH NEAR
SFC/LOW LEVELS...HAVE GENERALLY BOUGHT IN ON LATEST HRRR TRENDS
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING GIVEN FACTORS ABOVE. DID
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING
EVEN ACROSS THE NORTH. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...MORE DIVORCED FROM STRONGER
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING.
THICKER LOW CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO BE SOMEWHAT MORE DELAYED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...SO DID TREND TEMPS UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW TO MEDIUM SIDE IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER GIVEN LOW LEVEL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW CLOUD/RAIN SHOWER TIMING. LAKESHORE AREAS MAY
REMAIN ANCHORED AROUND 50 OR IN THE LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
CRUX OF OUR RAIN EVENT WILL UNFOLD LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH/PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA. GOOD CVA/HEIGHT FALLS AND STEADY WARM/MOIST AIR
ADVECTION (PUSHING 295K MIXING RATIOS TO AROUND 8 G/KG) WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THAT TIME. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 50KT LLJ OVER OUR CWA BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND MAGNITUDE OF RESULTANT THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN
THIS LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT BUT MARGINAL STATIC
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND PREVENT ANY SEVERE CONCERNS.
REDUCED STABILITY COULD HOWEVER LEAD TO SOME DECENT QPF TOTALS GIVEN
DEEP LAYER OF STRONG OMEGA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW VALUES OVER AN
INCH). AROUND 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALES...PARTICULARLY IN OUR NORTH.
RECENT DRY SPELL HAS ALLOWED AREA RIVERS TO COME DOWN QUITE A BIT
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS QPF WITH LITTLE TO NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.
OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST WITH THIS EVENT IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET
SNOW TO MIX IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THIS ALSO CORRELATES TO LOSS OF BETTER FORCING
AND MOISTURE AS SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP AT ALL BY THE TIME SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH BETTER
DEFORMATION LOCKED TO OUR NORTH AND QUICKLY LIFTING. EXPECT JUST A
FEW SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST THAT WILL NOT ACCUMULATE GIVEN WARM/WET
GROUND CONDITIONS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END BY FRIDAY MORNING
AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND AVA/SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY BUILD.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL LOOKING DRY AND RELATIVELY PLEASANT.
FRIDAY STARTS OFF COOL BUT SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND LATE MARCH SUN TAKES ITS TOLL.
MUCH WARMER ON SATURDAY BUT WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AS NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME LARGE INCONSISTENCIES WITH
HOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE BUT SHOULD BE JUST ANOTHER RAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH LATEST SFC
OBSERVATIONS BEGINNING TO INDICATE SOME IFR LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER ANY OF THESE
HIGHER END IFR OR LOWER END MVFR CIGS WILL REACH KSBN THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...BUT WITH
EXPECTED LACK OF ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT MAY
TEND TOWARD AN OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO AT KSBN THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE MID-LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES...LOW
LEVEL FGEN FORCING STRENGTHENS...AND RAIN POTENTIAL INCREASES.
WILL MAINTAIN MORE SOLID IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES AND LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP WITH
SECONDARY LOW LEVEL THETAE SURGE. SOUTH WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AT
KFWA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI
VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
345 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL APPROACH THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...TO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
RESOLVING NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ALONG WITH TIMING/MAGNITUDE
OF PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
FOR TODAY.
FOR TODAY...MID/UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH
PRIMARY UPPER FORCING BEGINNING TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALES WILL CONTINUE TO
RACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BUT WILL BE WEAK IN NATURE
WITH BROAD CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW PERSISTING. A NOTABLE UPSWING
IN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING HOWEVER
AS A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. AFOREMENTIONED
CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ROCKIES PV
ANOMALY WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
FORCING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. AS FAR SOUTH AS LOCAL AREA...A
COUPLE OF COMPLICATING FACTORS TO CONSIDER REGARDING TIMING/MAGNITUDE
OF PRECIP CHANCES. FORECAST BUFFER SOUNDINGS/SHORT TERM MODEL
PROGS DEPICT LOCAL AREA UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WHICH MAY LIMIT DEPTH OF BETTER RH. BULK OF GUIDANCE ALSO
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY OVERDOING NEAR SFC MOISTURE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE HRRR MAY BE A BIT TOO DRY WITH NEAR
SFC/LOW LEVELS...HAVE GENERALLY BOUGHT IN ON LATEST HRRR TRENDS
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING GIVEN FACTORS ABOVE. DID
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING
EVEN ACROSS THE NORTH. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...MORE DIVORCED FROM STRONGER
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING.
THICKER LOW CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO BE SOMEWHAT MORE DELAYED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...SO DID TREND TEMPS UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW TO MEDIUM SIDE IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER GIVEN LOW LEVEL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW CLOUD/RAIN SHOWER TIMING. LAKESHORE AREAS MAY
REMAIN ANCHORED AROUND 50 OR IN THE LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
CRUX OF OUR RAIN EVENT WILL UNFOLD LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH/PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA. GOOD CVA/HEIGHT FALLS AND STEADY WARM/MOIST AIR
ADVECTION (PUSHING 295K MIXING RATIOS TO AROUND 8 G/KG) WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THAT TIME. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 50KT LLJ OVER OUR CWA BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND MAGNITUDE OF RESULTANT THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN
THIS LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT BUT MARGINAL STATIC
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND PREVENT ANY SEVERE CONCERNS.
REDUCED STABILITY COULD HOWEVER LEAD TO SOME DECENT QPF TOTALS GIVEN
DEEP LAYER OF STRONG OMEGA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW VALUES OVER AN
INCH). AROUND 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALES...PARTICULARLY IN OUR NORTH.
RECENT DRY SPELL HAS ALLOWED AREA RIVERS TO COME DOWN QUITE A BIT
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS QPF WITH LITTLE TO NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.
OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST WITH THIS EVENT IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET
SNOW TO MIX IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THIS ALSO CORRELATES TO LOSS OF BETTER FORCING
AND MOISTURE AS SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP AT ALL BY THE TIME SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH BETTER
DEFORMATION LOCKED TO OUR NORTH AND QUICKLY LIFTING. EXPECT JUST A
FEW SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST THAT WILL NOT ACCUMULATE GIVEN WARM/WET
GROUND CONDITIONS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END BY FRIDAY MORNING
AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND AVA/SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY BUILD.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL LOOKING DRY AND RELATIVELY PLEASANT.
FRIDAY STARTS OFF COOL BUT SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND LATE MARCH SUN TAKES ITS TOLL.
MUCH WARMER ON SATURDAY BUT WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AS NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME LARGE INCONSISTENCIES WITH
HOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE BUT SHOULD BE JUST ANOTHER RAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A TIGHTENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WEAK
SHORT WAVES WILL RACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH TODAY BUT SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO LINGERING BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE. THIS FLOW PATTERN AND CONTINUED
EASTWARD MIGRATION OF UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHARPENING OF
LOW/MID LEVEL FRONT TODAY. MAIN QUESTION IN TERMS OF TIMING
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS/RAIN WILL BE POTENTIAL OF RELATIVELY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER PERSISTING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
MAINTAINED GENERAL IDEA OF PREVIOUS TAFS...WITH JUST SLIGHTLY MORE
DELAYED ONSET OF FUEL ALTERNATE CRITERIA TOWARD MIDDAY/AFTERNOON
AT KSBN. BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL AFFECT
KSBN...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AT KFWA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT/LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION INCREASE. DID TREND KSBN TO IFR
LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL HOLD WITH TREND TO LOWER END MVFR AT
KFWA TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT KFWA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS IS
SOMEWHAT LOWER AT KSBN DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STALLING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI
VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1149 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
Updated the forecast this AM with the main focus being on winds
and RH in the afternoon hours in the wake of a strong dryline
surging across the area. Downward momentum transfer and extremely
deep mixing along with the very strong wind fields aloft indicates
a high likelihood for wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph to reach the
surface. The best chance for this to happen will be in the region
near and south of a line from Abilene to Junction City through
Alma, Osage City, and Garnett. The main timing focus for this will
be in the 2 PM to 7 PM window. Have also slightly lower the RH
values for this afternoon into the 10-18% range.
SPC has also extended the slight risk for severe weather into
extreme eastern KS. Given the strength of this storm system, there
is some potential for severe storms to develop, but the better
chances at this time appear to be east and northeast of the local
forecast area. It seems that we will most likely see thunderstorms
initiate in the far eastern parts of the forecast area and not
become severe until they move east of the area, mainly due to the
amount of spinup time likely to be needed to get sustained
updrafts amidst such powerful wind shear.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
07Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough moving through the
central Rockies with the low beginning to close off. At the surface,
Low pressure continues to deepen across western KS and eastern CO.
The resulting pressure gradient and strong southerly winds have
finally transported some higher dewpoints into eastern KS.
With a very dynamic system progged to move across the area today,
there are several concerns beginning with the winds. Both the GFS
and NAM show a strong pressure gradient over the area through
tonight. About the only relief from the strong winds will be when
the surface low passes across northern KS and allow the winds to
diminish briefly. Will continue the wind advisory for today across
east central and parts of northeast KS for the strong winds ahead of
the surface low. Will also extended the advisory through the night
as well as expand it to include all of the counties as wind gusts
around 45 MPH are expected behind the surface low. The strong winds
will also create extreme fire danger today. See the fire weather
discussion for further details.
Thunderstorms chances look somewhat slim today although not
impossible. The strong elevated mixed layer (EML) is likely to
weaken as the upper low approaches and mid level temps cool. The
strongest PVA looks to impact the area during the late morning and
early afternoon. However forecast soundings show the EML capping the
surface boundary until mid afternoon or around 21Z. Additionally
there is the question of available moisture and resulting
instability. As the system approaches from the west, low level winds
should veer to the southwest pushing the deeper moisture to the east
into MO. So while things don`t appear to line up as well as they
could, there may be a narrow window when the dryline is pushing east
that the cap weakens enough for convection to develop along it.
Models suggest there could be around 1000 J/kg of CAPE along the
dryline through the late afternoon and with strong deep layer shear,
there could be an organized storm before they quickly move east of
the area. The convective allowing high resolution models appear to
be giving mixed signals for thunderstorm development. The NMM thinks
storm will form along the dryline while the ARW keep the dryline
mainly free of convection except for along and north of the
warm front dryline intersection. The HRRR is just now starting to
get far enough into the future but does not have any storm
development through 21Z. The dryline is expected to push east of the
forecast area around 7PM which would bring an end to the
thunderstorm potential.
Temps today are expected to warm into the mid 70s to near 80 for
most areas. Will need to watch parts of central KS for possibly
warmer temps with the dry slot working in with good insolation and
deep mixing. Cold air advection is forecast to increase early this
evening. Therefore lows in the lower and mid 30s appear to be on
track.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
The mid range forecast for Thursday afternoon thru Saturday morning
will be characterized mainly by decreasing wind fields as the
pressure gradient with the departing low pressure system lifts
northeast of the region into the Upper MS Valley and Western Great
Lakes region. Meanwhile, isentropic downglide will work in behind
the system as subsidence builds into northeastern KS vicinity.
Friday return flow sets up over the Central Plains as an expansive
area of high pressure slides off to the east of the area. The
gradient over northeast KS will tighten again but not as strong as
the current system has been for the past couple days. This is all
in response to what looks to be a set-up where the PFJ exhibits split
flow and the main northern stream begins to amplify at minor
shortwave trough over the Northern Plains and the southern branch
trough digs into the Inter-mountain West. This will likely cause
winds to mix over the region to around 800mb and with a very dry
atmosphere once again, probably will be looking at elevated fire
danger. No headlines yet as there is some indication the winds
may not be as strong, but nonetheless this will still create a
situation where fire danger is present.
Into the weekend and the extended time frame, the previously
mentioned shortwave with the northern stream of the PFJ will send a
weak boundary into the region which will essentially stall and act
as a stationary boundary for much of the day Saturday bringing small
chances of rain showers. However, with weaker lift and still a
fairly dry atmosphere in the lowest levels, any significant
precipitation is probably going to hold off until better forcing can
be produced with the southern stream of energy. GFS and EC
solutions do differ greatly with the deepening of the upper trough
as it pulls out of the Southern Rockies. While the EC appears to
deepen the upper wave more and associated surface low, it doesn`t
really get organized until it lifts further east of the area.
Meanwhile, the GFS matures the upper low sooner but not as deep.
Therefore, if the solution of the EC verifies, it is possible to see
heavier precip amounts over at least southern portions of the area
mainly south of I-70. It doesn`t appear to be a set up for any
great amount of thunderstorm activity for northeast KS as the better
moisture resides much further south and east of the region as well
as instability not being great. Also, cold air being wrapped around
this system appears to be fairly weak and short lived with the main
branch of the PFJ again off to the north of the region, so the
likelihood of any significant snow with not great either with
soundings suggesting the lowest 5kft being too warm for much snow
and a lower likelihood of wet bulb cooling to take place. Perhaps
the best area for this to occur is over northern portions of the
area north of I-70. Monday and Tuesday are again dry with
subsidence over the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
Main focus in the TAFs is wind speeds and timing of increases,
decreases, and shifts. Have highlighted all of these within the
TAF groups with moderate to strong confidence in the timing. There
is greater uncertainty regarding potential for MVFR cigs and areas
of precipitation late evening into Thursday morning. Could see a
mix of rain and snow showers with a small chance for brief periods
of reduced vis due to snow and strong wind combination.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
A VERY WINDY PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS FOCUSED BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT
THIS TIME MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE 45 TO 55 MPH GUSTS WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ABILENE TO JUNCTION CITY TO ALMA TO OSAGE CITY TO GARNETT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM WINDS WILL FALL INTO
THE 10 TO 18 PERCENT RANGE. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT THIS
EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SHARPLY AT THAT TIME AND
GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL DURING THIS WIND
SHIFT WITH INCREASING RH AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.
Friday there will likely be a risk of elevated fire danger as
southerly return flow once again sets up over the region with
mixing of drier dewpoints from around the 800mb level. This could
bring RH values to at least the low 20s and possibly lower. Winds
are currently borderline for actual headline conditions, so lower
confidence in this portion of the forecast for now.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ022>024-026-039-040-
056-059.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
KSZ008>012-020-021-034>038-054-055-058.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ035>038-054-
055-058.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ035>038-054-
055-058.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
618 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
07Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough moving through the
central Rockies with the low beginning to close off. At the surface,
Low pressure continues to deepen across western KS and eastern CO.
The resulting pressure gradient and strong southerly winds have
finally transported some higher dewpoints into eastern KS.
With a very dynamic system progged to move across the area today,
there are several concerns beginning with the winds. Both the GFS
and NAM show a strong pressure gradient over the area through
tonight. About the only relief from the strong winds will be when
the surface low passes across northern KS and allow the winds to
diminish briefly. Will continue the wind advisory for today across
east central and parts of northeast KS for the strong winds ahead of
the surface low. Will also extended the advisory through the night
as well as expand it to include all of the counties as wind gusts
around 45 MPH are expected behind the surface low. The strong winds
will also create extreme fire danger today. See the fire weather
discussion for further details.
Thunderstorms chances look somewhat slim today although not
impossible. The strong elevated mixed layer (EML) is likely to
weaken as the upper low approaches and mid level temps cool. The
strongest PVA looks to impact the area during the late morning and
early afternoon. However forecast soundings show the EML capping the
surface boundary until mid afternoon or around 21Z. Additionally
there is the question of available moisture and resulting
instability. As the system approaches from the west, low level winds
should veer to the southwest pushing the deeper moisture to the east
into MO. So while things don`t appear to line up as well as they
could, there may be a narrow window when the dryline is pushing east
that the cap weakens enough for convection to develop along it.
Models suggest there could be around 1000 J/kg of CAPE along the
dryline through the late afternoon and with strong deep layer shear,
there could be an organized storm before they quickly move east of
the area. The convective allowing high resolution models appear to
be giving mixed signals for thunderstorm development. The NMM thinks
storm will form along the dryline while the ARW keep the dryline
mainly free of convection except for along and north of the
warm front dryline intersection. The HRRR is just now starting to
get far enough into the future but does not have any storm
development through 21Z. The dryline is expected to push east of the
forecast area around 7PM which would bring an end to the
thunderstorm potential.
Temps today are expected to warm into the mid 70s to near 80 for
most areas. Will need to watch parts of central KS for possibly
warmer temps with the dry slot working in with good insolation and
deep mixing. Cold air advection is forecast to increase early this
evening. Therefore lows in the lower and mid 30s appear to be on
track.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
The mid range forecast for Thursday afternoon thru Saturday morning
will be characterized mainly by decreasing wind fields as the
pressure gradient with the departing low pressure system lifts
northeast of the region into the Upper MS Valley and Western Great
Lakes region. Meanwhile, isentropic downglide will work in behind
the system as subsidence builds into northeastern KS vicinity.
Friday return flow sets up over the Central Plains as an expansive
area of high pressure slides off to the east of the area. The
gradient over northeast KS will tighten again but not as strong as
the current system has been for the past couple days. This is all
in response to what looks to be a set-up where the PFJ exhibits split
flow and the main northern stream begins to amplify at minor
shortwave trough over the Northern Plains and the southern branch
trough digs into the Inter-mountain West. This will likely cause
winds to mix over the region to around 800mb and with a very dry
atmosphere once again, probably will be looking at elevated fire
danger. No headlines yet as there is some indication the winds
may not be as strong, but nonetheless this will still create a
situation where fire danger is present.
Into the weekend and the extended time frame, the previously
mentioned shortwave with the northern stream of the PFJ will send a
weak boundary into the region which will essentially stall and act
as a stationary boundary for much of the day Saturday bringing small
chances of rain showers. However, with weaker lift and still a
fairly dry atmosphere in the lowest levels, any significant
precipitation is probably going to hold off until better forcing can
be produced with the southern stream of energy. GFS and EC
solutions do differ greatly with the deepening of the upper trough
as it pulls out of the Southern Rockies. While the EC appears to
deepen the upper wave more and associated surface low, it doesn`t
really get organized until it lifts further east of the area.
Meanwhile, the GFS matures the upper low sooner but not as deep.
Therefore, if the solution of the EC verifies, it is possible to see
heavier precip amounts over at least southern portions of the area
mainly south of I-70. It doesn`t appear to be a set up for any
great amount of thunderstorm activity for northeast KS as the better
moisture resides much further south and east of the region as well
as instability not being great. Also, cold air being wrapped around
this system appears to be fairly weak and short lived with the main
branch of the PFJ again off to the north of the region, so the
likelihood of any significant snow with not great either with
soundings suggesting the lowest 5kft being too warm for much snow
and a lower likelihood of wet bulb cooling to take place. Perhaps
the best area for this to occur is over northern portions of the
area north of I-70. Monday and Tuesday are again dry with
subsidence over the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
The NAM and RAP have been overdoing the stratus to this point.
However there is a MVFR deck expanding across southeast KS, so
will have to keep an eye on this as the GFS keeps these clouds
just to the east of TOP and FOE. Think chances TS will develop
near TOP and FOE this afternoon are to small to mention in the
forecast at this time. Therefore think VFR conditions will prevail
through the afternoon. There are signs of an MVFR CIG moving in
behind the front/dryline. Confidence in the NAM prog is limited
but the GFS also suggests this. Am not sure how widespread light
precip on the back side of the system will be so have only
included an mention of VCSH for the overnight hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
Extreme fire danger is likely this afternoon as a dryline moves from
west to east across the area and much dryer air mixes to the surface
during the warmest part of the day. Because of this think min RH
values could drop to between 10 and 15 percent for parts of the
area. Combined with strong winds gusting between 35 and 45 MPH and
the weather looks to be very unfavorable for any outdoor burning.
Will keep the red flag warning going and expand it west to include
all but Republic county. Winds across Republic county should not be
as strong as they will be across the rest of the area. South winds
ahead of the dryline will shift to the northwest during the
evening.
Friday there will likely be a risk of elevated fire danger as
southerly return flow once again sets up over the region with
mixing of drier dewpoints from around the 800mb level. This could
bring RH values to at least the low 20s and possibly lower. Winds
are currently borderline for actual headline conditions, so lower
confidence in this portion of the forecast for now.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ009>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ022>024-026-035>040-
054>056-058-059.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
KSZ008>012-020-021-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
333 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
07Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough moving through the
central Rockies with the low beginning to close off. At the surface,
Low pressure continues to deepen across western KS and eastern CO.
The resulting pressure gradient and strong southerly winds have
finally transported some higher dewpoints into eastern KS.
With a very dynamic system progged to move across the area today,
there are several concerns beginning with the winds. Both the GFS
and NAM show a strong pressure gradient over the area through
tonight. About the only relief from the strong winds will be when
the surface low passes across northern KS and allow the winds to
diminish briefly. Will continue the wind advisory for today across
east central and parts of northeast KS for the strong winds ahead of
the surface low. Will also extended the advisory through the night
as well as expand it to include all of the counties as wind gusts
around 45 MPH are expected behind the surface low. The strong winds
will also create extreme fire danger today. See the fire weather
discussion for further details.
Thunderstorms chances look somewhat slim today although not
impossible. The strong elevated mixed layer (EML) is likely to
weaken as the upper low approaches and mid level temps cool. The
strongest PVA looks to impact the area during the late morning and
early afternoon. However forecast soundings show the EML capping the
surface boundary until mid afternoon or around 21Z. Additionally
there is the question of available moisture and resulting
instability. As the system approaches from the west, low level winds
should veer to the southwest pushing the deeper moisture to the east
into MO. So while things don`t appear to line up as well as they
could, there may be a narrow window when the dryline is pushing east
that the cap weakens enough for convection to develop along it.
Models suggest there could be around 1000 J/kg of CAPE along the
dryline through the late afternoon and with strong deep layer shear,
there could be an organized storm before they quickly move east of
the area. The convective allowing high resolution models appear to
be giving mixed signals for thunderstorm development. The NMM thinks
storm will form along the dryline while the ARW keep the dryline
mainly free of convection except for along and north of the
warm front dryline intersection. The HRRR is just now starting to
get far enough into the future but does not have any storm
development through 21Z. The dryline is expected to push east of the
forecast area around 7PM which would bring an end to the
thunderstorm potential.
Temps today are expected to warm into the mid 70s to near 80 for
most areas. Will need to watch parts of central KS for possibly
warmer temps with the dry slot working in with good insolation and
deep mixing. Cold air advection is forecast to increase early this
evening. Therefore lows in the lower and mid 30s appear to be on
track.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
The mid range forecast for Thursday afternoon thru Saturday morning
will be characterized mainly by decreasing wind fields as the
pressure gradient with the departing low pressure system lifts
northeast of the region into the Upper MS Valley and Western Great
Lakes region. Meanwhile, isentropic downglide will work in behind
the system as subsidence builds into northeastern KS vicinity.
Friday return flow sets up over the Central Plains as an expansive
area of high pressure slides off to the east of the area. The
gradient over northeast KS will tighten again but not as strong as
the current system has been for the past couple days. This is all
in response to what looks to be a set-up where the PFJ exhibits split
flow and the main northern stream begins to amplify at minor
shortwave trough over the Northern Plains and the southern branch
trough digs into the Inter-mountain West. This will likely cause
winds to mix over the region to around 800mb and with a very dry
atmosphere once again, probably will be looking at elevated fire
danger. No headlines yet as there is some indication the winds
may not be as strong, but nonetheless this will still create a
situation where fire danger is present.
Into the weekend and the extended time frame, the previously
mentioned shortwave with the northern stream of the PFJ will send a
weak boundary into the region which will essentially stall and act
as a stationary boundary for much of the day Saturday bringing small
chances of rainshowers. However, with weaker lift and still a
fairly dry atmosphere in the lowest levels, any significant
precipitation is probably going to hold off until better forcing can
be produced with the southern stream of energy. GFS and EC
solutions do differ greatly with the deepening of the upper trough
as it pulls out of the Southern Rockies. While the EC appears to
deepen the upper wave more and associated surface low, it doesn`t
really get organized until it lifts further east of the area.
Meanwhile, the GFS matures the upper low sooner but not as deep.
Therefore, if the solution of the EC verifies, it is possible to see
heavier precip amounts over at least southern portions of the area
mainly south of I-70. It doesn`t appear to be a set up for any
great amount of thunderstorm activity for northeast KS as the better
moisture resides much further south and east of the region as well
as instability not being great. Also, cold air being wrapped around
this system appears to be fairly weak and short lived with the main
branch of the PFJ again off to the north of the region, so the
likelihood of any significant snow with not great either with
soundings suggesting the lowest 5kft being too warm for much snow
and a lower likelihood of wetbulb cooling to take place. Perhaps the
best area for this to occur is over northern portions of the area
north of I-70. Monday and Tuesday are again dry with subsidence
over the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
Main concern will continue to the be the wind through the period
as tight pressure gradient will continue ahead of approaching
surface low and then behind it. South to southwest winds of 18kts
to 26kts with gusts to 35kts possible, then decreasing after 23Z
as surface low moves through the area, then increase from the west
and northwest in the 01Z-06Z period. VFR expected for much of the
period with mvfr cigs moving into MHK around 03Z and should hold
off at TOP and FOE until after 06Z. Precipitation confidence to
low to include in tafs at this time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
Extreme fire danger is likely this afternoon as a dryline moves from
west to east across the area and much dryer air mixes to the surface
during the warmest part of the day. Because of this think min RH
values could drop to between 10 and 15 percent for parts of the
area. Combined with strong winds gusting between 35 and 45 MPH and
the weather looks to be very unfavorable for any outdoor burning.
Will keep the red flag warning going and expand it west to include
all but Republic county. Winds across Republic county should not be
as strong as they will be across the rest of the area. South winds
ahead of the dryline will shift to the northwest during the
evening.
Friday there will likely be a risk of elevated fire danger as
southerly return flow once again sets up over the region with
mixing of drier dewpoints from around the 800mb level. This could
bring RH values to at least the low 20s and possibly lower. Winds
are currently borderline for actual headline conditions, so lower
confidence in this portion of the forecast for now.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ009>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ022>024-026-035>040-
054>056-058-059.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
KSZ008>012-020-021-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...53
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
229 AM MDT WED MAR 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016
LATEST 00Z NAM AND MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL RUN SHOW PRECIPITATION
STARTING A LITTLE SLOWER THEN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS THE STORM
SYSTEM COMES OUT A BIT LATER.
FAVORED THE HRRR OVER THE NAM REGARDING WRAPAROUND
PRECIPITATION...THE NAM HOLDS IT FOR A CONSIDERABLE LENGTH OF TIME
OVER PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHILE THE HRRR IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MATCHES THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
SO...HAVE EXPANDED THE BLIZZARD WARNING A BIT FURTHER EAST AFTER
18Z AS THE SNOW AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH PRODUCE 1/4 MILE VIS OR
LESS. FURTHER EAST HAVE LET HIGHLITES ALONE BUT DELAYED THEM TIL
AFTER 18Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016
RED FLAG WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CHEYENNE
COUNTY COLORADO THIS HOUR AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST WELL OVER 25
MPH AND RH VALUES REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW IN SOUTHCENTRAL
WYOMING. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AND THEN INTO
NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY.
THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THIS EVENING AND THEN START DETERIORATING
AS DYNAMICS FROM THE STRONG UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TOWARD SUNRISE. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MAINLY ALL SNOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FA BUT MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. STRONG
NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH WILL
CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WARNING
AREAS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. AREAS UNDER THE
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO SNOW. THE SNOW AND
WIND SHOULD START DECREASING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
AND A BLIZZARD WARNING IN OVER THE NORTHWEST FA BORDERED BY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AND A HIGH WIND WARNING IN AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO
SNOW. HIGH WIND CRITERIA WILL BE MET ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH WIND SPEED WORDING WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE
HIGH WIND THREAT IN THOSE AREAS. SEE HIGHLIGHT DETAILS BELOW.
THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPIRATION AT 00Z.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE VERY LITTLE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT WED MAR 23 2016
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT DURING THIS
PERIOD...MAINLY AT THE BEGINNING AND TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IN REGARDS TO THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE NOW
TAKING THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. THE CRH INIT CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AND LOWER POPS FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS MAKES
SENSE WITH THE MODEL OUTPUT AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SO WILL MAKE NO CHANGES.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS NOW CUTTING OFF A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIKE THE ECMWF WAS DOING YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN ARE MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE. THAT LOOKS IN LINE WITH
WPC FORECASTS. CONSEQUENTLY THE INIT ENDS THE POPS FASTER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HAS NOTHING FOR SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE INIT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT IN DIGGING/DEVELOPING A
LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DO NOT START OUT TOO BAD AND
THEN BECOME MUCH MORE DIFFERENT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF
CUTS OFF THE SYSTEM AND DOES NOT MOVE IT VERY MUCH. CONSIDERING
THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WE ARE IN PLUS THE MODELS TENDING TO BE TOO
FAR NORTH AND PROGRESSIVE IN THIS PATTERN...WOULD THINK THE ECMWF
IS GOING TO BE CLOSER TO REALITY. ALSO EVEN THE GEFS MEAN AND ITS
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS SUPPORT THE ECMWF MORE THAN THEY DO THE GFS.
WPC FORECASTS FOR THIS PERIOD REFLECT THE SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF
THINKING. THE INIT HAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
THIS LOOKS FINE. WHERE THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT STARTS
AFFECTING THE CRH INIT IS JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD WITH POPS BEING
INTRODUCED. HOPEFULLY MODELS GET SOME CONSISTENCY BUT AT THIS
TIME...A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY.
OVERALL WILL MAKE LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO WHAT THE CRH INIT GAVE ME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016
A POTENT AND FAIRLY QUICK MOVING WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRATUS CREATING IFR CIGS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
BOTH TERMINALS WITH VIS <1/2 MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50KTS OR SO FROM 20Z-03Z. FOR THE LATE EVENING
HOURS SNOW WILL VERY SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO GOODLAND.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
/1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR KSZ001-002-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR KSZ003-014.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
/1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR KSZ004-015-016-027>029-041-042.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
COZ092.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR COZ090-091.
NE...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
/1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR NEZ079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1030 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016
LATEST 00Z NAM AND MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL RUN SHOW PRECIPITATION
STARTING A LITTLE SLOWER THEN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS THE STORM
SYSTEM COMES OUT A BIT LATER.
FAVORED THE HRRRR OVER THE NAM REGARDING WRAPAROUND
PRECIPITATION...THE NAM HOLDS IT FOR A CONSIDERABLE LENGTH OF TIME
OVER PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHILE THE HRRR IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MATCHES THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
SO...HAVE EXPANDED THE BLIZZARD WARNING A BIT FURTHER EAST AFTER
18Z AS THE SNOW AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH PRODUCE 1/4 MILE VIS OR
LESS. FURTHER EAST HAVE LET HIGHLITES ALONE BUT DELAYED THEM TIL
AFTER 18Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016
RED FLAG WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CHEYENNE
COUNTY COLORADO THIS HOUR AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST WELL OVER 25
MPH AND RH VALUES REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW IN SOUTHCENTRAL
WYOMING. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AND THEN INTO
NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY.
THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THIS EVENING AND THEN START DETERIORATING
AS DYNAMICS FROM THE STRONG UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TOWARD SUNRISE. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MAINLY ALL SNOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FA BUT MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. STRONG
NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH WILL
CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WARNING
AREAS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. AREAS UNDER THE
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO SNOW. THE SNOW AND
WIND SHOULD START DECREASING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
AND A BLIZZARD WARNING IN OVER THE NORTHWEST FA BORDERED BY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AND A HIGH WIND WARNING IN AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO
SNOW. HIGH WIND CRITERIA WILL BE MET ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH WIND SPEED WORDING WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE
HIGH WIND THREAT IN THOSE AREAS. SEE HIGHLIGHT DETAILS BELOW.
THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPIRATION AT 00Z.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE VERY LITTLE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016
ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
SNOW AND WIND WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM EXITS OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY TRAVERSE THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING
FROM WEST TO EAST AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE SNOW CHANCES THROUGH
AROUND NOON SATURDAY WITH RAIN MIXING BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ONCE MORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW AND PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM AS
THE GFS KEEPS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AND THE ECMWF SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA.
INITIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WEST OF
THE KANSAS COLORADO BORDER AND 1 INCH OR LESS IN AREAS EAST HOWEVER
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE CLOSELY AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE
AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE HIGH
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016
A POTENT AND FAIRLY QUICK MOVING WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRATUS CREATING IFR CIGS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
BOTH TERMINALS WITH VIS <1/2 MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50KTS OR SO FROM 20Z-03Z. FOR THE LATE EVENING
HOURS SNOW WILL VERY SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO GOODLAND.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ001-002-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR KSZ003-014.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ004-015-016-027>029-
041-042.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ092.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ090-091.
NE...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1145 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated 1140 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Updated the forecast to include patchy drizzle in low clouds for the
overnight hours. Radar imagery downstream indicates streaks of very
light precip which is likely drizzle. 0Z NAM soundings indicate
good low level moisture for drizzle through Fri morning.
Updated 911 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Convection continues along a cold front this evening, which now has
passed over I-65 and is heading into the Bluegrass region. Storms
have shown a gradual weakening trend over the past few hours and
expect that to continue with the loss of heating. Surface temps
only in the upper 50s to low 60s ahead of the convection is likely
not lending to much, if any, surface-based instability.
Nevertheless, some gusts of 30-35 mph and brief heavy downpours
remain on the table for the next couple hours in the Bluegrass,
before all convection pushes east. Did go ahead and up sky cover
tonight across the region as there is quite an expansive shield of
stratus upstream rotating into the Ohio Valley.
Updated 622 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Quick update early this evening to account for the latest storm
trends. Convection has blossomed along the cold front, now pushing
across northern portions of I-65. The storms have remained strong,
but sub-severe given instability continues to remain meager. In
fact, where convection has developed is the location that has yet to
see much in the way of rain so far today so some surface-based
instability has been able to develop. The storms over the next
couple of hours will be capable of producing some small hail and
winds to 45 mph. Can`t rule out a rogue severe cell, but think that
threat has likely already peaked along with the diurnal heating
cycle.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
The concerns this afternoon will continue to be the potential for
severe weather, as well as gradient wind gusts. Gradient winds have
been gusting mainly in the upper 30s to around 40. However, there
have been some gusts as high as 45 mph. The wind advisory continues
until 23Z, but will continue to monitor gusts as it may be able to
be let go before then.
The rain that has moved across central KY today has helped to
stabilize the area. However, SPC mesoanalysis does show an area of
slight instability across west central KY. In addition the 0-6 km
shear values are around 60 knots across the region. Mesoscale models
do suggest that the instability will spread eastward this afternoon
into western portions of the forecast area before weakening towards
the early evening hours. The HRRR continues to show strengthening of
the line of storms right along the cold front into the evening
hours. All things considered, there is still a slight chance for
some strong to severe storms this afternoon with hail and wind
gusts.
The storms should move out of the area by around 03Z or so with some
light showers continuing across the Bluegrass overnight. Rain should
move out completely by daybreak Friday, with dry conditions
expected Friday night.
Temperatures will fall in the wake of the cold front overnight into
the mid 30s to lower 40s. Despite the low temps, frost formation is
not expected as winds will remain elevated overnight. Highs tomorrow
will be much cooler, in the lower to mid 50s. Lows Friday night will
dip into the mid to upper 30s. With light winds and high pressure,
some frost will be possible early Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Saturday will remain dry with high pressure ridging in from the
northeast. Temperature will warm into the 60s under mostly sunny
skies. Lows Saturday night will be much warmer, in the 40s areawide.
A trough will dig into the Plains on Sunday and cross the lower Ohio
Valley Sunday night. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
with this system still looks to be late Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. Given the dry weather for much of the day ahead of this
system, temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The
severe potential does not look overly impressive with this system,
but a few strong storms will not be out of the question. The rain
should move out on Monday morning.
Tuesday through Wednesday look to be dry as high pressure builds
into the area. In the wake of the system Sunday night, temps on
Monday will be back in the 50s. We will then see a warm up through
mid week with temps back into the mid to upper 60s. The next chance
for rain will come Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 723 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
A cold front is right on the doorstep of BWG and SDF, and will be
moving through near TAF issuance time. This will shift the winds to
more westerly at these sites, and will bring an end to the
precipitation once it moves through. LEX will still see some low
cigs and showers until the front moves through, but the
precipitation should come to an end there by about 03Z.
Otherwise, there will likely be a return to VFR cigs immediately
following the front, before MVFR cigs push into all sites once again
overnight. It appears these cigs will be just low enough to get
into the fuel-alternate range. Westerly gusts will slowly subside
through the overnight hours as high pressure builds in. Cigs should
slowly rise through the day tomorrow as drier air filters in.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD/AMS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1046 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE ONGOING ISL/SCT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA...AS WELL AS IN THE INCOMING LINE OF CONVECTION. AS
EXPECTED...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
HAS LED TO DIMINISHING TREND OF THE LINE. AT THIS POINT...THE IS
BECOMING MORE BROKEN IN NATURE WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND IS CONTINUING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. LOWERED
MENTION OF THUNDER TO ONLY ISOLATED AS THE LINE MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA...WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED AFTER 4Z. HOWEVER...IF THIS
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES...OVERALL POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS
WELL. THERE ARE STILL SOME GUSTS ALONG THIS LINE AS SOME OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE TAPPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SO 20 TO
30 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH AT LEAST 4Z AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK FOR ALL OTHER PARAMETERS
THIS EVENING. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS WELL
ON TRACK WITH THESE CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN
PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. WILL LIKELY UPDATE THE ZFP TO
REFLECT THE CHANGE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH HWO STILL
SEEMS TO BE VALID.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
HAVE BEEN UPDATING POPS AND WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TO
CAPTURE THE MOVEMENT OF THE LINE OF STORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND THE ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE STATE.
EXPECT THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES TOWARDS OUR
AREA WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRIKES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WHILE
GUSTS ALONG THE LINE OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...THERE
REALLY HASN/T BEEN MUCH OTHER IMPACTS REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL KY
THUS FAR. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO WARRANT LETTING OUR LAKE WIND
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8PM. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE CHANGES IN POPS
AND WEATHER WARRANTED A PACKAGE UPDATE. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN
PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
AT MID AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT
THE NORTHERN END OF INDIANA TO EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ON
SOUTHWESTWARD. SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT. THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD OUT OF KY EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WERE STILL KICKING UP AT TIMES AT MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. WITH A NPW FOR
WIND ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW...WITH STILL
SOME SMALL POTENTIAL TO REACH ADVISORY OR LAKE WIND ADVISORY LATE
TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ASIDE FROM CONVECTION...THE
GREATEST WIND THREAT HAS FADED. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY SHOWERS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BRING STRONG
WINDS...AND WE CONTINUE IN A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FROM
SPC.
SHOWERS WILL END WITH FROPA...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP ON FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL PRESENT A FROST THREAT IN OUR COLDER VALLEYS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE PATCHY FROST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND TWO PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE INITIAL BOUT OF RAIN IS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...PRECIPITATION
ONSET WILL BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WITH THE FIRST
SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND 12Z ON SUNDAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO PERHAPS SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL
STEADILY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY
AND THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO OUR EAST...TAKING ITS
LIFT WITH IT.
WE SHOULD THEN SEE AN EXTENDED BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TEMPORARILY SETS UP SHOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS DURING THAT TIME. THE MODELS TRY TO BRING ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. IN GENERAL THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WAS USED TO ADJUST THE
MODEL BLEND FORECAST AS WE ARE NOW IN THE WARM SEASON WITH LESS
COLD AIR TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD. THE FORECAST IS CALLING FOR
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO ENTER EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...AS RIDGES OF HIGH
PRESSURE RULE THE WEATHER ON THOSE DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL COOL OFF
QUITE A BIT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS COOLER AIR SPILLS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM. WE COULD EASILY SEE HIGHS
REACH THE UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THE LOW TO MID
70S ON SUNDAY. THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE WEEK LOOK TO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHEN THE MERCURY MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 842 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KY...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE
THROUGHOUT THE LATE EVENING...BEFORE EXITING JUST AFTER 6Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY A NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED. SO FAR GUSTS AROUND 30
KTS AND LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN THE ONLY IMPACTS REPORTED. EXPECT THIS
LINE TO AFFECT KSME FIRST...BETWEEN 3 AND 4Z...THEN WORK ITS WAY
EASTWARD. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT IN THE TAFS. AS WE CONTINUE TO
LOSE HEATING AND INSTABILITY THIS LINE WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DIMINISH
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT WINDS TO
SLOWLY SHIFT TO A MORE WNW DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...STAYING GENERALLY BELOW 5KTS. SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MORNING...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
911 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated 911 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Convection continues along a cold front this evening, which now has
passed over I-65 and is heading into the Bluegrass region. Storms
have shown a gradual weakening trend over the past few hours and
expect that to continue with the loss of heating. Surface temps
only in the upper 50s to low 60s ahead of the convection is likely
not lending to much, if any, surface-based instability.
Nevertheless, some gusts of 30-35 mph and brief heavy downpours
remain on the table for the next couple hours in the Bluegrass,
before all convection pushes east. Did go ahead and up sky cover
tonight across the region as there is quite an expansive shield of
stratus upstream rotating into the Ohio Valley.
Updated 622 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Quick update early this evening to account for the latest storm
trends. Convection has blossomed along the cold front, now pushing
across northern portions of I-65. The storms have remained strong,
but sub-severe given instability continues to remain meager. In
fact, where convection has developed is the location that has yet to
see much in the way of rain so far today so some surface-based
instability has been able to develop. The storms over the next
couple of hours will be capable of producing some small hail and
winds to 45 mph. Can`t rule out a rogue severe cell, but think that
threat has likely already peaked along with the diurnal heating
cycle.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
The concerns this afternoon will continue to be the potential for
severe weather, as well as gradient wind gusts. Gradient winds have
been gusting mainly in the upper 30s to around 40. However, there
have been some gusts as high as 45 mph. The wind advisory continues
until 23Z, but will continue to monitor gusts as it may be able to
be let go before then.
The rain that has moved across central KY today has helped to
stabilize the area. However, SPC mesoanalysis does show an area of
slight instability across west central KY. In addition the 0-6 km
shear values are around 60 knots across the region. Mesoscale models
do suggest that the instability will spread eastward this afternoon
into western portions of the forecast area before weakening towards
the early evening hours. The HRRR continues to show strengthening of
the line of storms right along the cold front into the evening
hours. All things considered, there is still a slight chance for
some strong to severe storms this afternoon with hail and wind
gusts.
The storms should move out of the area by around 03Z or so with some
light showers continuing across the Bluegrass overnight. Rain should
move out completely by daybreak Friday, with dry conditions
expected Friday night.
Temperatures will fall in the wake of the cold front overnight into
the mid 30s to lower 40s. Despite the low temps, frost formation is
not expected as winds will remain elevated overnight. Highs tomorrow
will be much cooler, in the lower to mid 50s. Lows Friday night will
dip into the mid to upper 30s. With light winds and high pressure,
some frost will be possible early Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Saturday will remain dry with high pressure ridging in from the
northeast. Temperature will warm into the 60s under mostly sunny
skies. Lows Saturday night will be much warmer, in the 40s areawide.
A trough will dig into the Plains on Sunday and cross the lower Ohio
Valley Sunday night. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
with this system still looks to be late Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. Given the dry weather for much of the day ahead of this
system, temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The
severe potential does not look overly impressive with this system,
but a few strong storms will not be out of the question. The rain
should move out on Monday morning.
Tuesday through Wednesday look to be dry as high pressure builds
into the area. In the wake of the system Sunday night, temps on
Monday will be back in the 50s. We will then see a warm up through
mid week with temps back into the mid to upper 60s. The next chance
for rain will come Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 723 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
A cold front is right on the doorstep of BWG and SDF, and will be
moving through near TAF issuance time. This will shift the winds to
more westerly at these sites, and will bring an end to the
precipitation once it moves through. LEX will still see some low
cigs and showers until the front moves through, but the
precipitation should come to an end there by about 03Z.
Otherwise, there will likely be a return to VFR cigs immediately
following the front, before MVFR cigs push into all sites once again
overnight. It appears these cigs will be just low enough to get
into the fuel-alternate range. Westerly gusts will slowly subside
through the overnight hours as high pressure builds in. Cigs should
slowly rise through the day tomorrow as drier air filters in.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
419 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
WE CONTINUE IN THE SAME REGIME AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BEING
IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTED IN GUSTY WINDS
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DEW POINTS FINALLY STARTED TO MAKE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLIMB IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY. HOWEVER...IT REMAINED DRY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...WITH RH AGAIN FALLING BELOW 25 PERCENT IN MANY
LOCATIONS.
THE LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS WILL FINALLY ACCELERATE TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...AND PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES...GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE A COMEBACK. MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH LENDS SUPPORT...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME
BEING LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND FIELDS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY...AND COULD BRING STRONG
WINDS.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OUT COOL
AND...ASIDE FROM A FEW STRAY RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN
LOCATIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...DRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA.
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...CLOUD
COVER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
LIGHT WINDS AND THE CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A FAST COOL
DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF OUR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS...WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 30 BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE MID 30S
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ELSE. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO FROST
FORMATION IN MOST OR ALL OF OUR VALLEYS. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE
BRIEF...HOWEVER...AS THE AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY MODIFY OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING MUCH WARMER WEATHER BACK TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WARM THINGS UP
ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER ON SUNDAY...AS THE
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE OFFING SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A MORE POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO
OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY START OUT AS TWO SEPARATE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE THAT WILL FORM ALONG THE WESTERN END
OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND OUT INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PHASE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO A MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
ONCE THIS HYBRID LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WE CAN EXPECTED ANOTHER PERIOD OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 70S
ON SUNDAY. THE COOL DOWN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
QUITE PRONOUNCED...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY MAKING IT TO AROUND
60S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAXING OUT FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...TO THE LOW 60S ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS AROUND 4K FT AGL
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64 ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETREAT FURTHER TO
THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS
WOULD LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL KICK IN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING OUT OF THE
SOUTH...SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW VFR CIGS WILL START TO SHOW UP
AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
250 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016
Considering all available 12Z guidance, it appears that the
convection will not reach our western counties until after 06Z
tonight. Some HRRR runs have shown some fairly intense convection
moving into the area, but it weakens considerably as it across
southeast Missouri. Certainly cannot rule out some isolated severe
in the far west, but nothing major. Heating has been held down
significantly today, and instability will be meager at best.
The models continue to solidify the precipitation as it moves
through our region Thursday, so QPF will increase to the east.
The convection will likely be intensifying in the late morning as
it exits to the east. Cannot argue with the slight risk areas in
SPC`s Day 1 and Day 2 outlooks. The mid and upper-level flow will
be nearly parallel to the convective line, so upscale growth of
the system and more widespread wind issues are not likely. So,
still would expect only isolated damaging winds, if only due to
the strong winds not far off the surface that may mix down with
any convective element.
It may be well into the afternoon before the last of the
precipitation exits the area, as the models continue to trend
slower with the system. This actually has a positive impact for
our area Thursday night and Friday morning, as the surface high
will not settle over our region until during the day Friday. This
should keep the entire area above freezing Friday morning. Cannot
rule out a very isolated location dropping right down to freezing
at sunrise over southeast Missouri or southern Illinois, but
nothing widespread or cold enough to warrant a Freeze Watch with
this forecast.
Winds will stay up through tonight, so temperatures are not likely
to drop much if at all tonight, until the precipitation moves in
very late. Used a combination of short range guidances to show
hourly trends in temperatures tonight and especially Thursday when
many locations will see falling temperatures at least in the
afternoon. Generally stayed on the warm side of guidance for
lows/highs from Thursday night through Friday night.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016
A progressive pattern is expected through the long term, which will
keep the train of weather systems going. The first system will be on
Easter, followed by another potentially stronger system later next
week.
The long term will start off dry and mild, as surface high pressure
departs to our east Saturday. A southeast low-level wind flow and
plenty of sunshine will raise highs into the mid 60s for Saturday.
There is a large difference in model solutions for Easter Sunday,
but they all seem to agree on precip for our area. The gfs camp has
been especially inconsistent. The preferred model continues to be
the ecmwf, which has been more consistent. The 12z run of the ecmwf
has support from a couple of the gfs ensemble members. As far as the
surface low track, the 12z ecmwf is consistent with previous runs
and the 00z ecmwf ensemble mean. This set of models takes the
surface low northeast from Texas across southeast MO and southern
IL. This preferred model solution warm sectors our region, resulting
in higher temps Sunday and a continuation of the mention of thunder
in the forecast. Will raise pops back into the likely category for
most areas Sunday.
Monday will be mainly dry and cooler in the wake of the departing
cold front/low pressure system. Will hold onto a small pop for
southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region, otherwise expect
clearing with highs around 60.
Tuesday looks dry and milder as the high moves well to the east of
our region. Some moisture will begin to stream northeast across our
region on Wednesday, in advance of a 500 mb trough or closed low
over the Western states. Other than a slight chance of precip in se
Missouri, will keep dry conditions going through Wed. Highs on Wed
should be mostly in the upper 60s with increasing southerly winds.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016
The latest guidance is a bit pessimistic on ceiling levels at the
beginning of the period, but the trend is higher through the
afternoon. Really played the optimistic side in holding off MVFR
ceilings until the convective activity begins late tonight.
Emphasized a 4 hour window when the best convective activity will
impact each site. Decided to insert TS in that window. IFR
conditions are limited to KPAH at this time, but that should be
right with the convection, and cannot be ruled out at the other
sites. South winds will continue to gust through this forecast
period. They will veer to southwest and continue to gust behind
the convection.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
310 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT.
MADE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO KNOCKED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
AS IT TURNS OUT...AT LEAST TWO OF OUR OBS SITES...QUICKSAND AND
THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET SITE...WERE ABLE TO DROP WELL INTO THE
30S AS THEY DECOUPLED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND STAYED THAT WAY. THE
REST OF THE AREA REMAINED MUCH MILDER WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S. WINDS ARE STARTING OUT ELEVATED IN THE WEST WITH
GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 MPH STILL GOING STRONG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE
WEST AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES DEEP THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST T/TD/WIND/SKY OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...THE RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE NATION. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE RIDGES AND OVER THE MORE OPEN AREAS EVEN THIS LATE
INTO THE NIGHT. IN FACT...LOZ HAD A GUST TO 22 KTS LAST HOUR WITH
EKQ AND KOOMER SEEING 26 MPH. THIS WIND IS KEEPING ALL BUT THE
MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS FROM DECOUPLING AND MAKING FOR FAIRLY
UNIFORM...MILD...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA WITH MID AND UPPER
50S COMMON AT THIS HOUR. THE COLDEST READING IS AT QUICKSAND WITH
A 42 WHILE MOST OTHER EXTREME VALLEYS ARE BARELY INTO THE 40S.
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MOVING OVER THIS PART OF THE
STATE...LIKELY ALSO SLOWING THE TEMP DROP THIS NIGHT. DEWPOINTS
SHOW THAT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM TO DROP TONIGHT SHOULD A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SET UP WITH OBS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ON
THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL THINKING THAT
ANY FROST WILL BE VERY PATCHY AND QUITE LIMITED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY GIVING WAY TO A FILLING
CLOSED LOW TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM SHEARS APART ITS ENERGY WILL
PASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS. DID FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WITH A
LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX SPECIFICS
IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER WARM...BREEZY...AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS SHOULD BE A TAD
LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS
PREVENTING A NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...UNLIKE
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF PLACES WHERE VALUES
MAY BE CLOSE SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING SUCH CONCERNS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AGAIN
LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED IN ALL BUT THE FAR
EASTERN VALLEYS. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY OWING TO SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AND SOME LIMITED MID LEVEL DYNAMICS. SPC HAS SHIFTED
THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THEIR SLIGHT RISK INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE A TWIN CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
WITH AN EARLY - PRE-FRONTAL - BAND OF CONVECTION AND AGAIN CLOSER
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH SFC
BASED CAPE APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND LIS TO MINUS 3...ALONG WITH A
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS IN THE HWO WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
CONCERN. EAST KENTUCKY IS IN NEED OF A GOOD SOAKING RAIN...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST AMOUNTS PASS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA. AS IT STANDS...WE HAVE ABOUT A HALF AN INCH OF QPF IN THE
FORECAST...HOPEFULLY ENOUGH WILL FALL TO ALLEVIATE OUR RECENT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS...BUT THE TREND IS
FOREBODING.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS AS A
STARTING POINT THROUGH THE DAY AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. HAVE
ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE
LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
TONIGHT...ALSO TOOK THE DEWPOINTS DOWN A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SOME ENHANCED DRY AIR MIX-DOWN. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM ZEROED
THEM OUT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN RAMPED THEM UP TO BETWEEN 85
AND 95 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME...
GENERALLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OUT COOL
AND...ASIDE FROM A FEW STRAY RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN
LOCATIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...DRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA.
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...CLOUD
COVER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
LIGHT WINDS AND THE CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A FAST COOL
DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF OUR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS...WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 30 BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE MID 30S
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ELSE. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO FROST
FORMATION IN MOST OR ALL OF OUR VALLEYS. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE
BRIEF...HOWEVER...AS THE AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY MODIFY OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING MUCH WARMER WEATHER BACK TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WARM THINGS UP
ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER ON SUNDAY...AS THE
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE OFFING SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A MORE POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO
OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY START OUT AS TWO SEPARATE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE THAT WILL FORM ALONG THE WESTERN END
OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND OUT INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PHASE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO A MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
ONCE THIS HYBRID LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WE CAN EXPECTED ANOTHER PERIOD OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 70S
ON SUNDAY. THE COOL DOWN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
QUITE PRONOUNCED...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY MAKING IT TO AROUND
60S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAXING OUT FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...TO THE LOW 60S ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS AROUND 4K FT AGL
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64 ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETREAT FURTHER TO
THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS
WOULD LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL KICK IN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING OUT OF THE
SOUTH...SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW VFR CIGS WILL START TO SHOW UP
AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
149 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT.
MADE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO KNOCKED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
AS IT TURNS OUT...AT LEAST TWO OF OUR OBS SITES...QUICKSAND AND
THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET SITE...WERE ABLE TO DROP WELL INTO THE
30S AS THEY DECOUPLED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND STAYED THAT WAY. THE
REST OF THE AREA REMAINED MUCH MILDER WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S. WINDS ARE STARTING OUT ELEVATED IN THE WEST WITH
GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 MPH STILL GOING STRONG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE
WEST AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES DEEP THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST T/TD/WIND/SKY OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...THE RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE NATION. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE RIDGES AND OVER THE MORE OPEN AREAS EVEN THIS LATE
INTO THE NIGHT. IN FACT...LOZ HAD A GUST TO 22 KTS LAST HOUR WITH
EKQ AND KOOMER SEEING 26 MPH. THIS WIND IS KEEPING ALL BUT THE
MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS FROM DECOUPLING AND MAKING FOR FAIRLY
UNIFORM...MILD...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA WITH MID AND UPPER
50S COMMON AT THIS HOUR. THE COLDEST READING IS AT QUICKSAND WITH
A 42 WHILE MOST OTHER EXTREME VALLEYS ARE BARELY INTO THE 40S.
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MOVING OVER THIS PART OF THE
STATE...LIKELY ALSO SLOWING THE TEMP DROP THIS NIGHT. DEWPOINTS
SHOW THAT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM TO DROP TONIGHT SHOULD A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SET UP WITH OBS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ON
THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL THINKING THAT
ANY FROST WILL BE VERY PATCHY AND QUITE LIMITED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY GIVING WAY TO A FILLING
CLOSED LOW TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM SHEARS APART ITS ENERGY WILL
PASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS. DID FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WITH A
LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX SPECIFICS
IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER WARM...BREEZY...AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS SHOULD BE A TAD
LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS
PREVENTING A NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...UNLIKE
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF PLACES WHERE VALUES
MAY BE CLOSE SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING SUCH CONCERNS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AGAIN
LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED IN ALL BUT THE FAR
EASTERN VALLEYS. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY OWING TO SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AND SOME LIMITED MID LEVEL DYNAMICS. SPC HAS SHIFTED
THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THEIR SLIGHT RISK INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE A TWIN CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
WITH AN EARLY - PRE-FRONTAL - BAND OF CONVECTION AND AGAIN CLOSER
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH SFC
BASED CAPE APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND LIS TO MINUS 3...ALONG WITH A
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS IN THE HWO WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
CONCERN. EAST KENTUCKY IS IN NEED OF A GOOD SOAKING RAIN...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST AMOUNTS PASS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA. AS IT STANDS...WE HAVE ABOUT A HALF AN INCH OF QPF IN THE
FORECAST...HOPEFULLY ENOUGH WILL FALL TO ALLEVIATE OUR RECENT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS...BUT THE TREND IS
FOREBODING.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS AS A
STARTING POINT THROUGH THE DAY AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. HAVE
ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE
LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
TONIGHT...ALSO TOOK THE DEWPOINTS DOWN A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SOME ENHANCED DRY AIR MIX-DOWN. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM ZEROED
THEM OUT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN RAMPED THEM UP TO BETWEEN 85
AND 95 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME...
GENERALLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE SHOWERS TAPPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON
FRIDAY. WE MAY KEEP SOME STRATO CU EARLY ON FRIDAY...BUT THAT
LOOKS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR MOST
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO CREST
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT TO EASTERN KY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FROST MENTION MAINLY IN THE
VALLEYS...AS TEMPS ARE SET TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. OVERALL THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES FLAT AND ZONAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. WE
THEN GET IN THE RETURN FLOW SIDE AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY MODERATE
SATURDAY...WHILE A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF NW OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. UP TO THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAR AGREEMENT WITH
OVERALL PATTERN.
SO LETS TALK ABOUT NEXT WEEKEND SYSTEM AND THE MODEL VARIABILITY
THAT COMES WITH IT. MENTIONED ABOVE OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BY THE TIME WE GET TO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING
IN THE EAST AND WELL ESTABLISHED CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
THEN AFTER THAT THE 00Z GFS HAS THIS LOW DEEPENING AND STILL
CLOSED OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS
SOLUTION SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST INTO NEXT WEEK. IN CONTRAST THE
00Z ECMWF REMAINS OPEN AND MORE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. IT
EVENTUALLY DEEPENS NEARER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z
GFS DOES NOT HAVE FULL SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN...ALSO QUITE THE
SPREAD ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS
OF THE GEFS TOO. SOME OF THE BIGGEST IMPLICATION WITH THE 00Z GFS
SOLUTION WOULD BE THE FACT THAT A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION
WOULD SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN QUITE A BIT...COMPARED TO THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION. ALSO GIVEN THAT WPC IS NOT BUYING INTO
THIS SOLUTION JUST YET AND WENT CLOSER TO ECMWF MEAN. RIGHT NOW
MODEL BLEND APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST BEST PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND NOT GOING TO LEAN AWAY FROM THAT AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE VARIABILITY. ALSO WILL KEEP WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE QUITE A BIT
WITH GFS SOLUTION KEEPING DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS AROUND 4K FT AGL
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64 ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETREAT FURTHER TO
THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS
WOULD LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL KICK IN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING OUT OF THE
SOUTH...SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW VFR CIGS WILL START TO SHOW UP
AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...AND THE RIDGES OF THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION
WILL ACCELERATE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. FROM THIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING A WETTING RAIN TO
THE ENTIRE REGION....BUT PERHAPS NOT AS SOAKING A RAIN AS IT
LOOKED A FEW DAYS AGO. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND MORE DRY WEATHER TO END THE
WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN TO END THE WEEKEND.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL
FIRE WEATHER...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1239 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURE DOWN A BIT. MADE
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO KNOCKED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
AS IT TURNS OUT...AT LEAST TWO OF OUR OBS SITES...QUICKSAND AND
THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET SITE...WERE ABLE TO DROP WELL INTO THE
30S AS THEY DECOUPLED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND STAYED THAT WAY. THE
REST OF THE AREA REMAINED MUCH MILDER WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S. WINDS ARE STARTING OUT ELEVATED IN THE WEST WITH
GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 MPH STILL GOING STRONG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE
WEST AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES DEEP THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST T/TD/WIND/SKY OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...THE RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE NATION. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE RIDGES AND OVER THE MORE OPEN AREAS EVEN THIS LATE
INTO THE NIGHT. IN FACT...LOZ HAD A GUST TO 22 KTS LAST HOUR WITH
EKQ AND KOOMER SEEING 26 MPH. THIS WIND IS KEEPING ALL BUT THE
MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS FROM DECOUPLING AND MAKING FOR FAIRLY
UNIFORM...MILD...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA WITH MID AND UPPER
50S COMMON AT THIS HOUR. THE COLDEST READING IS AT QUICKSAND WITH
A 42 WHILE MOST OTHER EXTREME VALLEYS ARE BARELY INTO THE 40S.
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MOVING OVER THIS PART OF THE
STATE...LIKELY ALSO SLOWING THE TEMP DROP THIS NIGHT. DEWPOINTS
SHOW THAT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM TO DROP TONIGHT SHOULD A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SET UP WITH OBS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ON
THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL THINKING THAT
ANY FROST WILL BE VERY PATCHY AND QUITE LIMITED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY GIVING WAY TO A FILLING
CLOSED LOW TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM SHEARS APART ITS ENERGY WILL
PASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS. DID FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WITH A
LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX SPECIFICS
IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER WARM...BREEZY...AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS SHOULD BE A TAD
LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS
PREVENTING A NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...UNLIKE
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF PLACES WHERE VALUES
MAY BE CLOSE SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING SUCH CONCERNS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AGAIN
LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED IN ALL BUT THE FAR
EASTERN VALLEYS. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY OWING TO SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AND SOME LIMITED MID LEVEL DYNAMICS. SPC HAS SHIFTED
THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THEIR SLIGHT RISK INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE A TWIN CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
WITH AN EARLY - PRE-FRONTAL - BAND OF CONVECTION AND AGAIN CLOSER
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH SFC
BASED CAPE APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND LIS TO MINUS 3...ALONG WITH A
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS IN THE HWO WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
CONCERN. EAST KENTUCKY IS IN NEED OF A GOOD SOAKING RAIN...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST AMOUNTS PASS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA. AS IT STANDS...WE HAVE ABOUT A HALF AN INCH OF QPF IN THE
FORECAST...HOPEFULLY ENOUGH WILL FALL TO ALLEVIATE OUR RECENT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS...BUT THE TREND IS
FOREBODING.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS AS A
STARTING POINT THROUGH THE DAY AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. HAVE
ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE
LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
TONIGHT...ALSO TOOK THE DEWPOINTS DOWN A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SOME ENHANCED DRY AIR MIX-DOWN. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM ZEROED
THEM OUT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN RAMPED THEM UP TO BETWEEN 85
AND 95 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME...
GENERALLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE SHOWERS TAPPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON
FRIDAY. WE MAY KEEP SOME STRATO CU EARLY ON FRIDAY...BUT THAT
LOOKS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR MOST
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO CREST
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT TO EASTERN KY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FROST MENTION MAINLY IN THE
VALLEYS...AS TEMPS ARE SET TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. OVERALL THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES FLAT AND ZONAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. WE
THEN GET IN THE RETURN FLOW SIDE AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY MODERATE
SATURDAY...WHILE A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF NW OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. UP TO THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAR AGREEMENT WITH
OVERALL PATTERN.
SO LETS TALK ABOUT NEXT WEEKEND SYSTEM AND THE MODEL VARIABILITY
THAT COMES WITH IT. MENTIONED ABOVE OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BY THE TIME WE GET TO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING
IN THE EAST AND WELL ESTABLISHED CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
THEN AFTER THAT THE 00Z GFS HAS THIS LOW DEEPENING AND STILL
CLOSED OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS
SOLUTION SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST INTO NEXT WEEK. IN CONTRAST THE
00Z ECMWF REMAINS OPEN AND MORE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. IT
EVENTUALLY DEEPENS NEARER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z
GFS DOES NOT HAVE FULL SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN...ALSO QUITE THE
SPREAD ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS
OF THE GEFS TOO. SOME OF THE BIGGEST IMPLICATION WITH THE 00Z GFS
SOLUTION WOULD BE THE FACT THAT A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION
WOULD SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN QUITE A BIT...COMPARED TO THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION. ALSO GIVEN THAT WPC IS NOT BUYING INTO
THIS SOLUTION JUST YET AND WENT CLOSER TO ECMWF MEAN. RIGHT NOW
MODEL BLEND APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST BEST PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND NOT GOING TO LEAN AWAY FROM THAT AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE VARIABILITY. ALSO WILL KEEP WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE QUITE A BIT
WITH GFS SOLUTION KEEPING DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
WEST AND PICK UP BY MID MORNING IN THE EAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH 20 KT ONES IN THE EAST...MAINLY
ON THE RIDGES. LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO SETTLE AFTER SUNSET AND
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...AND THE RIDGES OF THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION
WILL ACCELERATE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. FROM THIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING A WETTING RAIN TO
THE ENTIRE REGION....BUT PERHAPS NOT AS SOAKING A RAIN AS IT
LOOKED A FEW DAYS AGO. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND MORE DRY WEATHER TO END THE
WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN TO END THE WEEKEND.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
FIRE WEATHER...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
AS IT TURNS OUT...AT LEAST TWO OF OUR OBS SITES...QUICKSAND AND
THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET SITE...WERE ABLE TO DROP WELL INTO THE
30S AS THEY DECOUPLED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND STAYED THAT WAY. THE
REST OF THE AREA REMAINED MUCH MILDER WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S. WINDS ARE STARTING OUT ELEVATED IN THE WEST WITH
GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 MPH STILL GOING STRONG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE
WEST AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES DEEP THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST T/TD/WIND/SKY OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...THE RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE NATION. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE RIDGES AND OVER THE MORE OPEN AREAS EVEN THIS LATE
INTO THE NIGHT. IN FACT...LOZ HAD A GUST TO 22 KTS LAST HOUR WITH
EKQ AND KOOMER SEEING 26 MPH. THIS WIND IS KEEPING ALL BUT THE
MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS FROM DECOUPLING AND MAKING FOR FAIRLY
UNIFORM...MILD...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA WITH MID AND UPPER
50S COMMON AT THIS HOUR. THE COLDEST READING IS AT QUICKSAND WITH
A 42 WHILE MOST OTHER EXTREME VALLEYS ARE BARELY INTO THE 40S.
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MOVING OVER THIS PART OF THE
STATE...LIKELY ALSO SLOWING THE TEMP DROP THIS NIGHT. DEWPOINTS
SHOW THAT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM TO DROP TONIGHT SHOULD A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SET UP WITH OBS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ON
THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL THINKING THAT
ANY FROST WILL BE VERY PATCHY AND QUITE LIMITED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY GIVING WAY TO A FILLING
CLOSED LOW TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM SHEARS APART ITS ENERGY WILL
PASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS. DID FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WITH A
LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX SPECIFICS
IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER WARM...BREEZY...AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS SHOULD BE A TAD
LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS
PREVENTING A NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...UNLIKE
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF PLACES WHERE VALUES
MAY BE CLOSE SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING SUCH CONCERNS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AGAIN
LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED IN ALL BUT THE FAR
EASTERN VALLEYS. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY OWING TO SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AND SOME LIMITED MID LEVEL DYNAMICS. SPC HAS SHIFTED
THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THEIR SLIGHT RISK INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE A TWIN CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
WITH AN EARLY - PRE-FRONTAL - BAND OF CONVECTION AND AGAIN CLOSER
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH SFC
BASED CAPE APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND LIS TO MINUS 3...ALONG WITH A
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS IN THE HWO WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
CONCERN. EAST KENTUCKY IS IN NEED OF A GOOD SOAKING RAIN...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST AMOUNTS PASS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA. AS IT STANDS...WE HAVE ABOUT A HALF AN INCH OF QPF IN THE
FORECAST...HOPEFULLY ENOUGH WILL FALL TO ALLEVIATE OUR RECENT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS...BUT THE TREND IS
FOREBODING.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS AS A
STARTING POINT THROUGH THE DAY AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. HAVE
ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE
LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
TONIGHT...ALSO TOOK THE DEWPOINTS DOWN A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SOME ENHANCED DRY AIR MIX-DOWN. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM ZEROED
THEM OUT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN RAMPED THEM UP TO BETWEEN 85
AND 95 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME...
GENERALLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE SHOWERS TAPPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON
FRIDAY. WE MAY KEEP SOME STRATO CU EARLY ON FRIDAY...BUT THAT
LOOKS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR MOST
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO CREST
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT TO EASTERN KY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FROST MENTION MAINLY IN THE
VALLEYS...AS TEMPS ARE SET TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. OVERALL THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES FLAT AND ZONAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. WE
THEN GET IN THE RETURN FLOW SIDE AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY MODERATE
SATURDAY...WHILE A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF NW OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. UP TO THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAR AGREEMENT WITH
OVERALL PATTERN.
SO LETS TALK ABOUT NEXT WEEKEND SYSTEM AND THE MODEL VARIABILITY
THAT COMES WITH IT. MENTIONED ABOVE OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BY THE TIME WE GET TO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING
IN THE EAST AND WELL ESTABLISHED CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
THEN AFTER THAT THE 00Z GFS HAS THIS LOW DEEPENING AND STILL
CLOSED OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS
SOLUTION SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST INTO NEXT WEEK. IN CONTRAST THE
00Z ECMWF REMAINS OPEN AND MORE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. IT
EVENTUALLY DEEPENS NEARER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z
GFS DOES NOT HAVE FULL SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN...ALSO QUITE THE
SPREAD ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS
OF THE GEFS TOO. SOME OF THE BIGGEST IMPLICATION WITH THE 00Z GFS
SOLUTION WOULD BE THE FACT THAT A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION
WOULD SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN QUITE A BIT...COMPARED TO THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION. ALSO GIVEN THAT WPC IS NOT BUYING INTO
THIS SOLUTION JUST YET AND WENT CLOSER TO ECMWF MEAN. RIGHT NOW
MODEL BLEND APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST BEST PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND NOT GOING TO LEAN AWAY FROM THAT AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE VARIABILITY. ALSO WILL KEEP WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE QUITE A BIT
WITH GFS SOLUTION KEEPING DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
WEST AND PICK UP BY MID MORNING IN THE EAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH 20 KT ONES IN THE EAST...MAINLY
ON THE RIDGES. LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO SETTLE AFTER SUNSET AND
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...AND THE RIDGES OF THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION
WILL ACCELERATE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. FROM THIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING A WETTING RAIN TO
THE ENTIRE REGION....BUT PERHAPS NOT AS SOAKING A RAIN AS IT
LOOKED A FEW DAYS AGO. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND MORE DRY WEATHER TO END THE
WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN TO END THE WEEKEND.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
FIRE WEATHER...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
348 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...THE RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE NATION. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE RIDGES AND OVER THE MORE OPEN AREAS EVEN THIS LATE
INTO THE NIGHT. IN FACT...LOZ HAD A GUST TO 22 KTS LAST HOUR WITH
EKQ AND KOOMER SEEING 26 MPH. THIS WIND IS KEEPING ALL BUT THE
MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS FROM DECOUPLING AND MAKING FOR FAIRLY
UNIFORM...MILD...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA WITH MID AND UPPER
50S COMMON AT THIS HOUR. THE COLDEST READING IS AT QUICKSAND WITH
A 42 WHILE MOST OTHER EXTREME VALLEYS ARE BARELY INTO THE 40S.
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MOVING OVER THIS PART OF THE
STATE...LIKELY ALSO SLOWING THE TEMP DROP THIS NIGHT. DEWPOINTS
SHOW THAT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM TO DROP TONIGHT SHOULD A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SET UP WITH OBS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ON
THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL THINKING THAT
ANY FROST WILL BE VERY PATCHY AND QUITE LIMITED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY GIVING WAY TO A FILLING
CLOSED LOW TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM SHEARS APART ITS ENERGY WILL
PASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS. DID FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WITH A
LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX SPECIFICS
IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER WARM...BREEZY...AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS SHOULD BE A TAD
LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS
PREVENTING A NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...UNLIKE
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF PLACES WHERE VALUES
MAY BE CLOSE SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING SUCH CONCERNS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AGAIN
LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED IN ALL BUT THE FAR
EASTERN VALLEYS. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY OWING TO SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AND SOME LIMITED MID LEVEL DYNAMICS. SPC HAS SHIFTED
THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THEIR SLIGHT RISK INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE A TWIN CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
WITH AN EARLY - PRE-FRONTAL - BAND OF CONVECTION AND AGAIN CLOSER
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH SFC
BASED CAPE APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND LIS TO MINUS 3...ALONG WITH A
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS IN THE HWO WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
CONCERN. EAST KENTUCKY IS IN NEED OF A GOOD SOAKING RAIN...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST AMOUNTS PASS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA. AS IT STANDS...WE HAVE ABOUT A HALF AN INCH OF QPF IN THE
FORECAST...HOPEFULLY ENOUGH WILL FALL TO ALLEVIATE OUR RECENT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS...BUT THE TREND IS
FOREBODING.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS AS A
STARTING POINT THROUGH THE DAY AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. HAVE
ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE
LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
TONIGHT...ALSO TOOK THE DEWPOINTS DOWN A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SOME ENHANCED DRY AIR MIX-DOWN. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM ZEROED
THEM OUT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN RAMPED THEM UP TO BETWEEN 85
AND 95 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME...
GENERALLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE SHOWERS TAPPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON
FRIDAY. WE MAY KEEP SOME STRATO CU EARLY ON FRIDAY...BUT THAT
LOOKS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR MOST
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO CREST
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT TO EASTERN KY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FROST MENTION MAINLY IN THE
VALLEYS...AS TEMPS ARE SET TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. OVERALL THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES FLAT AND ZONAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. WE
THEN GET IN THE RETURN FLOW SIDE AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY MODERATE
SATURDAY...WHILE A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF NW OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. UP TO THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAR AGREEMENT WITH
OVERALL PATTERN.
SO LETS TALK ABOUT NEXT WEEKEND SYSTEM AND THE MODEL VARIABILITY
THAT COMES WITH IT. MENTIONED ABOVE OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BY THE TIME WE GET TO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING
IN THE EAST AND WELL ESTABLISHED CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
THEN AFTER THAT THE 00Z GFS HAS THIS LOW DEEPENING AND STILL
CLOSED OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS
SOLUTION SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST INTO NEXT WEEK. IN CONTRAST THE
00Z ECMWF REMAINS OPEN AND MORE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. IT
EVENTUALLY DEEPENS NEARER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z
GFS DOES NOT HAVE FULL SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN...ALSO QUITE THE
SPREAD ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS
OF THE GEFS TOO. SOME OF THE BIGGEST IMPLICATION WITH THE 00Z GFS
SOLUTION WOULD BE THE FACT THAT A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION
WOULD SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN QUITE A BIT...COMPARED TO THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION. ALSO GIVEN THAT WPC IS NOT BUYING INTO
THIS SOLUTION JUST YET AND WENT CLOSER TO ECMWF MEAN. RIGHT NOW
MODEL BLEND APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST BEST PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND NOT GOING TO LEAN AWAY FROM THAT AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE VARIABILITY. ALSO WILL KEEP WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE QUITE A BIT
WITH GFS SOLUTION KEEPING DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. STILL BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AND BELOW
10 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND CONTINUE LIGHTER THROUGH
EARLY-MID WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN A FACTOR AT AROUND FL020 AS A LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM
AFFECTS THE AREA INTO DAWN. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY BY 09-11Z EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN...BUT
LIKELY NOT ANYWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
829 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS MAINE FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
830 PM UPDATE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF DETROIT MI WITH
UPR LVL WV ROTATING THRU THE WRN GREAT LKS. THIS HAS BROUGHT
INVERTED SFC TROF THRU NY STATE AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BRDR OF MAINE. SFC WINDS ALONG THE ST. JOHN VLY
VEERED FM NRLY DIRECTION TO ERLY IN THE PAST HR AS TROF HAS LIFTED
NORTH INTO CANADA. SFC HIPRES HAS BUILT INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH COLD AIR DAMMING BCMG REINFORCED ON ERLY FLOW WITH
SFC TEMPS OVR WASHINGTON CNTY HVG DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE
PAST HR.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO HV A HARD TIME DEALING WITH COLD-AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO. 18Z GFS SEEMS TO HV THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT
SFC TEMPS WITH LATEST RAP FAIRLY CLOSE AS WELL. CONTINUE TO MONKEY
WITH HRLY T/TD VALUES AS WARMEST TEMPS IN CWA ARE LOCATED ACRS THE
NORTH WITH LWR TEMPS IN DOWNEAST ZONES. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO
DELAY PCPN ONSET BY AN HR OR TWO AS AIRMASS IS TAKING ITS SWEET
TIME SATURATING DOWN. ONCE IT DOES, EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN ACRS NRN
ZONES IN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.
WL TAKE LONGER TO BEGIN ACRS THE SOUTH AS THEY ARE RMVD FM
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROF. MOST LKLY EXPECT THAT THEY WL SEE
DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE SET UP FOR A TIME TONIGHT BFR GETTING MORE
STRATIFORM PCPN TO DVLP. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT 00Z SNDG FM KCAR
SHOWS LOWEST 150MB DRY AND WAITING TO SATURATE FM THE TOP WHEREAS
00Z SOUNDING FM KGYX SHOWS THE OPPOSITE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE IN LOWEST LYRS WHILE ABV 850MB IT RMNS DRY. THUS, HV
ADDED IN DRIZZLE AND/OR FZDZ TO GRIDS FOR DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT
BFR MOISTURE CAN WORK IN ALOFT. CAN ALREADY SEE FZDZ BEGINNING TO
BLOSSOM ON GYX AND BOX RADAR. WL CONTINUE HEADLINES AS IS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ICE DOWNEAST UNDER COLD AIR DAMMING.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
THIS UPCOMING EVENT LOOKS TO BE HIGH IMPACT WITH THE WHOLE SET OF
SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND CANADIAN GEM SHOWING A COLD
SOLUTION W/A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT SETTING UP. SFC
ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRES SLIDING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK W/PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND
THEN OVERSPREADING NE INTO THE REST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF THE EVENT BY A FEW HRS AS
INITIAL PRECIP WILL BE VIRGA DUE TO DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE
COLUMN IN FORECAST TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT W/OVERRUNNING IN PLACE DUE
TO E WIND IN THE BLYR W/SSW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP WILL START OUT
INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND THEN GRADUALLY GO OVER TO SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN FOR THE DOWNEAST AND COAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THEN TO JUST PLAIN RAIN BY DRIVE TIME FRIDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING. FURTHER N AND W, THE
CHANGEOVER WILL TAKE LONGER AS COLD AIR WEDGED IN WILL TAKE LONGER
TO SCOUR OUT. AS A MATTER OF FACT, STRONG WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ST. JOHN VALLEY AND NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY FOR SNOW AND HEAVY SLEET.
THE DECISION WAS TO GO W/5-9 INCHES AND AROUND AN INCH OF SLEET.
ACROSS THE HOULTON-MILLINOCKET REGION INTO THE MOUNT KATAHDIN
REGION WILL SEE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF ICE ALONG W/THE SNOW AND SLEET.
FURTHER S TOWARD BANGOR-CALAIS TO THE COAST...MIXED PRECIP WILL GO
TO RAIN AS TEMPS RAPIDLY WARM INTO THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO
THE 40S BY THE AFTERNOON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
LOW PRES LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN MAINE AND THEN
REDEVELOP ALONG THE MAINE COAST ON FRIDAY. THE COASTAL LOW WILL
THEN LIFT NE DURING THE DAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO COLDER AIR
HANGING ON LONGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY AND THE CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE REGION MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A
MATTER OF FACT, TEMPS COULD STRUGGLE TO BUST 32F IN THESE AREAS WHICH
WOULD KEEP SLEET/FREEZING RAIN GOING ON LONGER. TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS
W/THE POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE ICING. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED BY THE SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS AS WHETHER TO UPGRADE
THE HEADLINES ACROSS THE HOULTON AND MOUNT KATAHDIN REGION IF THIS
PANS OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND MID 40S TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MORE CLOUDS
SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, BUT
PROBABLY NO PRECIPITATION OTHER THAN PERHAPS PATCHY DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY WITH THE RETURN
ONSHORE FLOW, AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S
DOWNEAST. &&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKER THAN THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND BRINGS LIKELY
POPS TO THE REGION WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TURNING TO ALL RAIN
IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE OVERALL TREND IS A FARTHER EAST
SOLUTION...THEREFORE NOT PLAYING THIS STORM UP AT ALL.
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE BY MID WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH
AND THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MODIFY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKER THAN THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND BRINGS LIKELY
POPS TO THE REGION WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TURNING TO ALL RAIN
IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE OVERALL TREND IS A FARTHER EAST
SOLUTION...THEREFORE NOT PLAYING THIS STORM UP AT ALL.
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE BY MID WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH
AND THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MODIFY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR TONIGHT THEN BCMG IFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FZRA/SLEET WILL LEAD TO
ICING THREATS AS WELL AS LLWS FOR KBHB.
SHORT TERM: ANY LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD END FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
PREDOMINANT CEILINGS WILL BE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS WINDS WILL COME BACK UP TO 15 TO 20 KT W/GUSTS TO 30 KT AT
TIMES. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS
W/A SWELL COMPONENT.
SHORT TERM: AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT LEVEL
OFFSHORE WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WILL BE AROUND 7 FEET FRIDAY EVENING, SUBSIDING TO AROUND 3
TO 5 FEET LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ003>006-
010-011-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ015>017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD PERSISTED INTO MID-AFTERNOON...INHIBITING A
LOT OF MIXING AND KEEPING TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. NCAR ENSEMBLE 3KM POSTAGE STAMPS HAVE THE
WAVE CLOUD DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT BY MID-EVENING. SO ANTICIPATE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AS INVERSION SETS UP OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
50S...WITH TEMPS WEST OF I-95 IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT WITH LESS HIGH CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS. THE REDUCED AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW MORE MIXING WITH GUSTIER SW WINDS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF HAS COLD FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT CLEARING THE
CWA ON FRIDAY MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS FROM LATE
EVENING THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH H5 PVA BEHIND IT...MAY
TOUCH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ESP AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTION OF CWA. USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SAT AND SUN WITH HIGH PRESS TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHEAST. A LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTHWEST
SOMETIME SUN NIGHT INTO MON... PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION SOMETIME ON MON... WITH PRECIP PSBLY STARTING SUN NIGHT.
TIMING WITH THE FROPA IS STILL UNCERTAIN BETWEEN GUIDANCE... AS
WELL AS PRECIP DURATION.
HIGH PRESS BUILDS BEHIND COLD FRONT MON OR MON NIGHT BRINGING BACK
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WED. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL... HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOW TEMPS WILL IN THE 40S
AND 50S... AND IN THE 30S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECTING MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS AND
VSBYS...CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT KDCA AND KBWI. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 22KT-28KT RANGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SAT AND SUN WITH HIGH PRESS TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST RAP FORECAST DOES HAVE WINDS MIXING DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AOA SCA CRITERIA...SO WILL KEEP IT INTACT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE COLDER
WATERS...EXPECTING THE SCA WINDS TO BE LIMITED TO NEARSHORE.
MODELS STILL SHOW THE BIG WATER OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND
CHESAPEAKE ADJACENT TO SOUTHERN MARYLAND IN SCA TONIGHT...AND
THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SOLID SCA AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS
TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN WITH HIGH PRESS TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHEAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDIER AND WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH THE 10-HOUR
FUELS BEING MORE COMBUSTIBLE WITH TODAY`S DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FORECAST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CURRENTLY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE 25-30% THRESHOLDS FOR ENHANCED WILDFIRE
CONCERNS. WE DID GET A REPORT OF A 10-12 ACRE WILDFIRE TODAY IN
CALVERT COUNTY...AND SIMILAR ISOLATED WILDFIRES MAY BE AROUND THE
REGION THURSDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ533-534-
537-541>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...LEE/IMR
MARINE...LEE/IMR
FIRE WEATHER...LEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
848 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND THEN TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
WE HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES A LITTLE WITH THE 8 PM EXPIRATION TIME
COMING UP HERE SOON AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW COMING IN THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE DROPPED THE SE CORNER OF THE WARNING WITH LITTLE
ONGOING IMPACTS THERE AND LITTLE SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
IN THE WARNING...WE HAVE EXTENDED IT UNTIL 1 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR 1-2
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TOP OF THE ACCUMULATED ICE UP THERE.
DEFORMATION SNOW ACROSS WISCONSIN IS NOW MOVING OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS
SNOW WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...BUT IT WILL CREATE SOME ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WITH ADDITIONAL
WEIGHT ON TOP OF STRESSED TREE LIMBS...AND CREATE MORE SLICK ROADS
WITH TEMPS FALLING. THIS SHOULD ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NE BY
1 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
WE WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUE AS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
FREEZING. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ICING...BUT WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND ICE COVERED TREES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH INTO
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A LINE OF LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THERE.
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH THE HRRR CONSISTENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IN
BRINGING A BAND OF DEFORMATION AXIS SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES. THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ON
THE ROADS AFTER DARK AS TEMPERATURES DROP BLO FREEZING.
ONCE THAT GOES BY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS ENDING BY 12Z FRIDAY. FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM LOW IS APPROACHING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT RAIN OR MIX ACROSS THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
WE ARE MONITORING TWO SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST.
ONE IS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON SUN-MON. THE OTHER IS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR LATE WED-THU.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST DAY IS FOR DIMINISHING PCPN CHCS FOR THE
SYSTEM FOR SUN-MON. THIS TREND IS THE RESULT OF MORE SEPARATION OF
THE SYSTEMS FROM SAT THROUGH SUN. WE WILL SEE THE FRONT FROM THE SAT
SYSTEM BE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE TRIES TO MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT ON SUN-MON. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP PCPN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WE HAVE KEPT RAIN CHCS IN THE FCST INTO MON...BUT HAVE LOWERED
THEM A BIT. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT AS THERE IS
POTENTIAL OF ENOUGH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
THE PERIOD FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH
MODERATING TEMPS. WE WILL SEE A NICE AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN LOWS TO OUR EAST AND WEST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BEGINNING ON WED AND BECOME MORE LIKELY
BY THU. THE STRONG UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. WILL START TO EJECT SHORT WAVES TO THE NE TOWARD THE STATE. THE
INITIAL WAVE EJECTING INTO THE AREA ON WED WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY THU AS BETTER MOISTURE
WILL HAVE MOVED FURTHER NORTH AHEAD OF SUBSEQUENT WAVES. WE SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY MILD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AND APPROACHING 60 BEING
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 847 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
BAND OF RAIN/SNOW WILL WORK EAST THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND
04Z. LOWER CEILINGS REMAIN NEAR AND IN THE WAKE OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT AN IMPROVING TREND
TONIGHT FROM LIFR AND IFR THIS EVENING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING THEREAFTER. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHTER WINDS MOVES IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF
LOWER MICHIGAN. 24 HOUR TOTALS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED BY 8
AM FRIDAY. RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE IN THE KALAMAZOO...
GRAND... AND MUSKEGON RIVER BASINS. NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE COMMON
OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN LOWLAND AREAS ADJACENT TO RIVER BANKS. MORE
IMPACTFUL MINOR FLOODING ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>045.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
650 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND THEN TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
WE HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES A LITTLE WITH THE 8 PM EXPIRATION TIME
COMING UP HERE SOON AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW COMING IN THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE DROPPED THE SE CORNER OF THE WARNING WITH LITTLE
ONGOING IMPACTS THERE AND LITTLE SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
IN THE WARNING...WE HAVE EXTENDED IT UNTIL 1 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR 1-2
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TOP OF THE ACCUMULATED ICE UP THERE.
DEFORMATION SNOW ACROSS WISCONSIN IS NOW MOVING OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS
SNOW WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...BUT IT WILL CREATE SOME ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WITH ADDITIONAL
WEIGHT ON TOP OF STRESSED TREE LIMBS...AND CREATE MORE SLICK ROADS
WITH TEMPS FALLING. THIS SHOULD ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NE BY
1 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
WE WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUE AS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
FREEZING. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ICING...BUT WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND ICE COVERED TREES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH INTO
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A LINE OF LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THERE.
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH THE HRRR CONSISTENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IN
BRINGING A BAND OF DEFORMATION AXIS SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES. THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ON
THE ROADS AFTER DARK AS TEMPERATURES DROP BLO FREEZING.
ONCE THAT GOES BY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS ENDING BY 12Z FRIDAY. FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM LOW IS APPROACHING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT RAIN OR MIX ACROSS THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
WE ARE MONITORING TWO SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST.
ONE IS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON SUN-MON. THE OTHER IS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR LATE WED-THU.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST DAY IS FOR DIMINISHING PCPN CHCS FOR THE
SYSTEM FOR SUN-MON. THIS TREND IS THE RESULT OF MORE SEPARATION OF
THE SYSTEMS FROM SAT THROUGH SUN. WE WILL SEE THE FRONT FROM THE SAT
SYSTEM BE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE TRIES TO MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT ON SUN-MON. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP PCPN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WE HAVE KEPT RAIN CHCS IN THE FCST INTO MON...BUT HAVE LOWERED
THEM A BIT. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT AS THERE IS
POTENTIAL OF ENOUGH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
THE PERIOD FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH
MODERATING TEMPS. WE WILL SEE A NICE AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN LOWS TO OUR EAST AND WEST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BEGINNING ON WED AND BECOME MORE LIKELY
BY THU. THE STRONG UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. WILL START TO EJECT SHORT WAVES TO THE NE TOWARD THE STATE. THE
INITIAL WAVE EJECTING INTO THE AREA ON WED WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY THU AS BETTER MOISTURE
WILL HAVE MOVED FURTHER NORTH AHEAD OF SUBSEQUENT WAVES. WE SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY MILD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AND APPROACHING 60 BEING
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS SHROUDED BY IFR-LIFR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ALL RAIN AT THE TERMINALS. WE EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO HOLD UNTIL ABOUT 21-22Z WHEN A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE
PCPN WILL MOVE IN. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE IFR
CATEGORY...EXCEPT FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS WHICH COULD SNEAK UP TO
MVFR IN THE WARMER PART OF THE SYSTEM. SOME STORMS CURRENTLY IN
ERN ILLINOIS WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE I-94 TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 3-4 HRS.
AFTER THE LULL...WE WILL SEE THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM MOVE
THROUGH MAINLY KGRR AND KMKG IN THE FORM OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE
IT WOULD MOVE OUT.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH CIGS COMING UP TO VFR
TOWARD 14Z OR SO ON FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHTER WINDS MOVES IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF
LOWER MICHIGAN. 24 HOUR TOTALS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED BY 8
AM FRIDAY. RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE IN THE KALAMAZOO...
GRAND... AND MUSKEGON RIVER BASINS. NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE COMMON
OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN LOWLAND AREAS ADJACENT TO RIVER BANKS. MORE
IMPACTFUL MINOR FLOODING ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>045.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
534 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT
OVER WRN KS IN THE SRN STREAM. TO THE N IN THE NRN STREAM...BROAD
TROFFING COVERS MUCH OF CANADA. IN THE CONFLUENCE BTWN THIS NRN
TROFFING AND RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THE KS LOW...UPPER JET RUNNING
FROM JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NRN NEW ENGLAND IS STRENGTHENING.
INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
THE JET IS AIDING PCPN EXPANSION WELL TO THE N OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW IN NCNTRL KS TO LAKE
ERIE. CLOSER TO HOME...A FEW STRATOCU DEVELOPED IN NE WIND UPSLOPE
AREAS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN INCREASING AND THICKENING TODAY AFTER MORNING SUNSHINE.
FCST TONIGHT/THU WILL REVOLVE AROUND EVOLUTION OF WINTER STORM
CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
MID LEVEL LOW OVER KS GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THU. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM NE KS TO SRN LWR MI THU AFTN. INITIAL
BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY LIFTING TOWARD UPPER MI IS BEING DRIVEN
LARGELY BY AFOREMENTIONED RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AND RESULTING
STRENGTHENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ALTHOUGH
SNOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING N THRU
WI...IT WILL ENCOUNTER VERY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT S AND W FROM HIGH PRES OVER ONTARIO. SFC DWPTS
HAVE BEEN DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPPER MI
THIS AFTN AND ARE IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN ONTARIO. WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TONIGHT... THE
APPROACHING SNOW IN WI WILL INCREASINGLY STRUGGLE TO MOVE N INTO
UPPER MI AS ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ERODES THE NRN PORTION OF
THE PCPN SHIELD. ALL AVBL HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HOURLY
RAP RUNS TODAY AND 18Z NAM...SHOW PCPN HAVING TROUBLE LIFTING MUCH
FARTHER THAN FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT FROM
ROUGHLY JUST N OF IRON MOUNTAIN TO JUST N OF MANSTIQUE BY 12Z THU.
DURING THU MORNING...DEFORMATION SNOW SHIELD...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING/TSSN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA...WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A WEAKENING
STATE. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW SHOULD EXPAND INTO PORTIONS OF NCTNRL
AND NE UPPER MI. SNOW WILL THEN DIMINISH/END STEADILY FROM W TO E
DURING THE AFTN.
FOR THIS EVENT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW TO FALL FROM IRONWOOD TO
L`ANSE INTO THE KEWEENAW. IT`S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANY SNOW WILL
REACH MARQUETTE. TO THE S AND E...EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL FROM N TO S WITH WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND 1 INCH
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO ABOUT A FOOT IN THE CITY OF MENOMINEE. THE NRN
EDGE OF THE SNOW WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT CHALLENGE AS DRY AIR
CONTNUALLY EATS AWAY AT SNOW LIFTING INTO THE AREA UNDER WEAKENING
FORCING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE NRN EXTENT OF SNOWFALL
REFLECTED IN THIS FCST DOES NOT OCCUR. HAVE ADDED DICKINSON/NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES TO ADVY...THOUGH IT WILL ONLY BE THE SRN
PARTS OF THOSE COUNTIES THAT WILL REACH THE LOW SLR ADVY CRITERIA OF
AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. FAR SRN PARTS OF DELTA AND
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES MAY SEE STORM TOTAL SNOW UP AROUND 6 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS
WITH THE NRN STREAM DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES...WILL GIVE WAY TO MID
LEVEL RIDGING AS A SRN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE STRONG SHRTWAVE TROUGH LIFT QUICKLY TO THE
NE THROUGH LOWER MI DURING THE EVENING STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR DIV
MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA WILL END THE LINGERING SNOW WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS FAVORING TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY INLAND WEST HALF.
FRIDAY...SRLY FLOW AND WAA WILL DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPER 30S N AND E TO HE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER THE SW.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...MODELS SHOW PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH
ONLY MODEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INFLOW...GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
OF AROUND 0.10 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. FCST LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN MAY FALL AS
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING PEAK HEATING
SATURDAY.
SUN-MON...WITH SFC RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT
LITTLE PCPN DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK NRN STREAM SHRTWVS TO BRUSH
THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
TUE-WED...MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH A
STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN
PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PCPN...MAINLY AS RAIN...MAY SPREAD TOWARD THE
AREA BY WED AS MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
BEING WELL N OF A WINTER STORM THAT WILL BE TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...KIWD/KCMX WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE FCST PERIOD UNDER
AN E TO NE FEED OF DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS. THE NRN FRINGE OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MAY BRUSH KSAW THU MORNING. IF
SO...VFR CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO HIGH END MVFR AT THAT TIME.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 528 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
E TO NE WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THU AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES DRIFTING
ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC AND LOW PRES TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO FAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE THU EVENING. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 15KT OR LESS FROM W TO E LATE THU AFTN THRU FRI
MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN
WINDS LATER FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES TROF. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT
RANGE FOR A TIME AHEAD OF THE TROF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LIKEWISE...
THERE MAY BE 15-25KT NW WINDS FOR A TIME IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF
PASSAGE LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN LATER SUN
AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ007-014-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ013.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ011.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AND BRING A WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER. UP TO A FOOT OF
SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LOWER MICHIGAN. A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL BE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE HRRR SUPPORTS THE GOING FORECAST
FOR EVOLUTION OF P TYPE TONIGHT. WE EXPECT THE NORTHERN TIER TO
SEE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WITH WITH A BAND OF SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN CUTTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHARPLY TO THE SOUTH.
THE ICING THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE AREA
FROM ALMA TO MT PLEASANT AND WEST TO BIG RAPIDS WHERE A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH OF ICE ACCUM IS POSSIBLE. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
FREEZING RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-96
TONIGHT.
WE ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY THAT IS SFC BASED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE LOW MOVES EAST LATE THURSDAY WITH A NORTH FLOW OF COLDER AIR
CHANGING PRECIP OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
CROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON HOW THE DEFORMATION
ZONE PIVOTS THROUGH. WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS
IF ICE ACCUMULATIONS PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
HE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE MORE
OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
DRIER WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON FRI WILL REMAIN INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SAT BEFORE PCPN CHCS WILL INCREASE LATER.
A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LONGER WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL LIFT JUST NW OF THE AREA LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT FAR SE
WITH UPPER WAVE STAYING NW. WE WILL ALSO HAVE ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE
SRN JET LIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS AND GO JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE. RAIN
CHCS WILL BE MUCH BETTER ON SUN WITH THE SRN STREAM WAVE AS IT WILL
DRAW GULF MOISTURE NWD. PCPN LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH SUN AS
THE COLDER AIR FROM THE NW GETS HELD UP. PCPN COULD EVENTUALLY
CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW AT THE END OF THE EVENT AS SOME COLDER AIR
DOES FINALLY TRY TO MAKE IT IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
WE SHOULD THEN SEE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FROM LATER MON THROUGH
TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BE RATHER
AMPLIFIED WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
WE WILL END UP WITH THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDING IN OVER OUR PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY.
THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WAVES
EJECTING FROM THE WRN TROUGH/LOW WILL START TO IMPACT THE AREA
AROUND WED. THIS COULD END UP GETTING PUSHED BACK OVER TIME AS IS
THE CASE MANY TIMES IN THIS TYPE OF A PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
PLENTY OF IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
BEYOND WITH A LOT OF IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE ONLY REAL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST IS P-TYPE FOR THE NRN TERMINALS.
LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE NRN TERMINALS SINCE
AROUND 14-16Z...WITH A WINTRY MIX NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS ARE LOWERING THERE AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THAT WAY.
A POCKET OF AIR BELOW FREEZING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20-22Z AND LASTING UNTIL AROUND 02-03Z.
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME PL TO MAINLY KGRR AND KMKG.
SOME FZRA IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF SFC TEMPS DROP TO...OR
BELOW FREEZING. WE EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT
THIS TIME. PCPN SHOULD THEN REMAIN RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PERIOD AFTER 02-03Z AT THE TERMINALS.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO START AFFECTING THE NRN TERMINALS AROUND
20-22Z...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT LIFR
CONDITIONS TO SETTLE IN BEFORE 04Z AT MOST OF...IF NOT ALL OF THE
SITES. THIS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THEN THROUGH THE END
OF THE FCST PERIOD AND BEYOND.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.75-1.50 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RIVER RISES WILL OCCUR... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
MINOR FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE... MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
NUISANCE FLOODING IN LOWLAND AREAS NEAR RIVER BANKS. AS OF THIS
WRITING... RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE IN EFFECT FOR THE MAPLE
RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS... GRAND RIVER AT IONIA... LOOKING GLASS
RIVER AT EAGLE... AND SYCAMORE CREEK AT HOLT.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROLONG ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS AND COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ050-056>059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-051-052.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
405 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BTWN TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS. PLAINS RIDGING IS OUT AHEAD OF A TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. ENERGY OVER SRN NV IN THE BASE OF THAT
TROF WILL SPIN UP A WINTER STORM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WED NIGHT NIGHT/THU. CLOSER TO HOME...STREAK OF -SN IN
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME AND AIDED BY SHARPER FGEN HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FCST AREA AFTER LEAVING A DUSTING TO AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF DIMINISHING LIGHT PCPN
EXITING NE MN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE
N AND E THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO
NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. 12Z CYPL SOUNDING AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
TODAY SUPPORTS THIS DRYING TREND AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE NRN ONTARIO
WITH ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NE LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL THUS CARRY A
MENTION OF -SN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN END PCPN WNW TO ESE AS
FORCING EXITS AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES. EVEN IF LOW CLOUDS DO SCATTER
OUT OR CLEAR OUT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER 850MB
TEMPS -9/-10C MAY SUPPORT STRATOCU EXPANSION LATE TONIGHT AND/OR WED
MORNING. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLEARING...TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE
TEENS AT SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
ON WED...SHORTWAVE OVER SRN NV WILL EMERGE OUT OVER THE WRN PLAINS
AS A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ORGANIZES
OVER KS. DOWNSTREAM...TIGHTENING CONFLUENCE ZONE BTWN SRN STREAM
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WRN PLAINS TROF AND CONTINUED NRN STREAM
TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET
FROM NRN ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR EASTWARD. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET WILL HELP PCPN EXPAND TO THE N OF
A NEARLY STATIONARY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW TO LAKE
ERIE. GIVEN THE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER NRN ONTARIO ON WED AND THE MAIN FGEN ZONE S
OF THE AREA...WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLOWER NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF PCPN
INTO FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI WED AFTN. FCST WILL SHOW SCHC POPS
SPREADING INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY DURING THE AFTN...BUT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL 22-23Z OVER THE SRN HALF
OF THE COUNTY. CHC POPS WILL EXTEND AS FAR N AS KIMT/KESC AT 23Z.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING STRATOCU THAT
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE W AND NCNTRL...EXPECT A GRADUAL THICKENING OF
HIGH CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 30S...A
STEADY NE WIND WILL ADD A CHILL...ESPECIALLY IN MENOMINEE COUNTY
WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING DOWN THE BAY WILL ENHANCE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
ONGOING SN STORM OVER MAINLY SE UPR MI WL DIMINISH ON THU AS POLAR
BRANCH SHRTWV/SFC LO SHIFT ENEWD THRU THE LOWER GREAT LKS OUT OF
PHASE WITH THE ARCITC BRANCH FLOW. THERE WL THEN BE A PERIOD OF DRY
WX THU NGT/FRI AS TRAILING HI PRES RDG SHIFTS ACRS THE UPPER LKS.
NEXT CHC OF SN MIXED WITH RA WL COME ON FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT AS
SHRTWV/LO PRES TROF CROSS THE UPR LKS...BUT THIS PCPN EVENT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE SGNFT. THEN GENERALLY QUITE WX WL BE THE RULE SUN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPS WL BE AOB NORMAL THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD.
THU...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF POLAR
BRANCH SHRTWV MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER LKS...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LO
PASSING THRU SRN LOWER MI ON THU AFTN. SINCE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A LACK OF PHASING BTWN THE POLAR BRANCH FLOW OVER
THE CONUS AND ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IN CANADA...THE SRN TREND IN FCST
LO TRACK SEEMS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SPARE MOST OF
THE CWA FM HEAVY PCPN/SN...EXPECT THE SE ZNS. WENT WITH UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL 4 INCHES OF SN OVER THE SE ON THU...WITH MOST FALLING
THRU 18Z. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS DEEPER MSTR/MORE PCPN FARTHER TO THE
N...BUT WL TREND TOWARD THE SOMEWHAT DRIER FCSTS AWAY FM THE SE
GIVEN THE DRY LLVLS OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WOULD FAVOR A
SHARPER NRN EDGE TO THE PCPN SHIELD DESPITE SOME UPR DVGC THAT IS
FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA ON THU MRNG IN THE EXIT
REGION OF UPR JET CORE ON THE ERN FLANK OF SHRTWV. EXIT OF STRONGER
FORCING IN THE AFTN WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING POPS...SO THE END TIME
OF HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR MENOMINEE/DELTA COUNTIES WL BE 18Z.
THU NGT...AS SHRTWV/SFC LO EXIT TO THE E AND GIVE WAY TO DNVA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND DRYING/SFC HI PRES RDG...ANY LINGERING SN OVER
MAINLY THE E WL DIMINISH AND GIVE WAY TO CLRG SKIES W-E. WITH LGT
WINDS AND PWAT UNDER 0.25 INCH...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. LINGERING SHALLOW
CYC NNE FLOW WL KEEP SOME LO CLDS LINGERING LONGER OVER THE E...BUT
H85 TEMPS FALLING NO LOWER THAN ABOUT -8C WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY LES.
FRI...ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING ESEWD THRU WRN CANADA/NRN ROCKIES IS
FCST TO DIG INTO THE NRN PLAINS...CAUSING A LO PRES TROF TO DVLP FM
NW ONTARIO INTO THE NRN PLAINS. UPR MI WL E DOMINATED BY THE LLVL SW
FLOW BTWN THIS TROF AND THE SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS SHIFTING TO THE E.
RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN THE QUICKEST TO BRING SOME PCPN AHEAD OF
THIS TROF INTO THE WRN CWA...BUT GIVEN DRYNESS OF ANTECEDENT AIRMASS
WL TEND TO FOLLOW THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AND MAINTAIN A DRIER
FCST. THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH NO PCPN OVER THE CWA THRU
00Z SAT...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN FREE SCENARIO IS INCRSG.
FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT...AS SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES TROF DRIFT TOWARD THE
UPR LKS...EXPECT PCPN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA W-E FRI NGT INTO SAT.
SINCE THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LO IS FCST TO PASS TO THE NW OF UPR MI
WITH SW LLVL FLOW OVER THE CWA...EXPECT SOME OF THIS PCPN WL BE
MIXED WITH SOME RA AT LEAST OVER THE SE CWA ESPECIALLY DURING
DAYTIME HEATING ON SAT...WHEN H85-100 THKNS WL BE IN EXCESS OF 1305M
IN THIS AREA. AS THE SHRTWV/LO PRES TROF CROSS THE CWA ON SAT
NGT...PCPN WL DIMINISH W-E.
EXTENDED...ON EASTER SUN ANOTHER POLAR BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO LIFT
ENEWD FM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LKS.
MOST OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING AND SFC LO PRES STAYING FAR ENUF TO THE SE AND SFC HI PRES
RDG AXIS MOVING INTO THE AREA TO BRING A DRY DAY TO UPR MI. THERE
ARE THEN SIGNS ANOTHER SHRTWV MAY DIG NEAR THE UPR LKS ON MON...BUT
ABSENCE OF SGNFT MSTR INFLOW AND TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES WARRANT NO
MORE THAN LO CHC POPS. TRAILING HI PRES SHOULD BRING DRY WX ON TUE.
TEMPS AOB NORMAL ON SUN AND MON SHOULD WARM ON TUE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FCST TO AT LEAST BE NEAR 0C WITH SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF ALL THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING
AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KSAW LATE WED EVENING
AS INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NW FRINGE OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD DEVELOP SOME MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES IN NE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016EXPECT INCREASING NE WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS INTO THU AS
THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN HI PRES
DRIFTING ACROSS ONTARIO AND A LO PRES SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THRU THE LOWER LAKES AND INTO SE ONTARIO ON THU NIGHT. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL DIMINISH STEADILY ON THU NIGHT AS A HI PRES
RIDGE FOLLOWS INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL THEN BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SSW ON FRI/FRI NIGHT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING
LO PRES TROUGH. BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN 20
KTS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO THE N-NW ON SAT AND SUN FOLLOWING THE
TROF PASSAGE AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE. WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVER 20 KTS DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ013.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
131 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BTWN TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS. PLAINS RIDGING IS OUT AHEAD OF A TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. ENERGY OVER SRN NV IN THE BASE OF THAT
TROF WILL SPIN UP A WINTER STORM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WED NIGHT NIGHT/THU. CLOSER TO HOME...STREAK OF -SN IN
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME AND AIDED BY SHARPER FGEN HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FCST AREA AFTER LEAVING A DUSTING TO AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF DIMINISHING LIGHT PCPN
EXITING NE MN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE
N AND E THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO
NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. 12Z CYPL SOUNDING AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
TODAY SUPPORTS THIS DRYING TREND AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE NRN ONTARIO
WITH ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NE LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL THUS CARRY A
MENTION OF -SN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN END PCPN WNW TO ESE AS
FORCING EXITS AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES. EVEN IF LOW CLOUDS DO SCATTER
OUT OR CLEAR OUT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER 850MB
TEMPS -9/-10C MAY SUPPORT STRATOCU EXPANSION LATE TONIGHT AND/OR WED
MORNING. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLEARING...TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE
TEENS AT SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
ON WED...SHORTWAVE OVER SRN NV WILL EMERGE OUT OVER THE WRN PLAINS
AS A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ORGANIZES
OVER KS. DOWNSTREAM...TIGHTENING CONFLUENCE ZONE BTWN SRN STREAM
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WRN PLAINS TROF AND CONTINUED NRN STREAM
TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET
FROM NRN ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR EASTWARD. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET WILL HELP PCPN EXPAND TO THE N OF
A NEARLY STATIONARY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW TO LAKE
ERIE. GIVEN THE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER NRN ONTARIO ON WED AND THE MAIN FGEN ZONE S
OF THE AREA...WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLOWER NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF PCPN
INTO FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI WED AFTN. FCST WILL SHOW SCHC POPS
SPREADING INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY DURING THE AFTN...BUT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL 22-23Z OVER THE SRN HALF
OF THE COUNTY. CHC POPS WILL EXTEND AS FAR N AS KIMT/KESC AT 23Z.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING STRATOCU THAT
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE W AND NCNTRL...EXPECT A GRADUAL THICKENING OF
HIGH CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 30S...A
STEADY NE WIND WILL ADD A CHILL...ESPECIALLY IN MENOMINEE COUNTY
WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING DOWN THE BAY WILL ENHANCE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
...FOCUS IS ON GREAT LAKES STORM LATE WED AFTN INTO THU MORNING...
UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS TO ROCKIES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON WED MORNING THEN LIFTS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THU AND
OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRI. TROUGH ALOFT MAINTAINS POSITIVE OR
NEUTRAL TILT AS STRONGEST JET ENERGY REMAINS AHEAD OF TROUGH. SFC
LOW 987MB-991MB DEEPENS OVER KS THROUGH MIDDAY WED THEN MOVES TO
NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO BY WED EVENING. FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE VCNTY OF SOUTHERN
IOWA TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI BY WED
EVENING. SHARP H85 FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT...VCNTY OF
SOUTHERN MN TO CNTRL WI AND CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT BAND OF
SNOW TO STREAK AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE H85 FRONT AND WITHIN
REGION OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENEIS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER LATE
WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT...FARTHER NORTH H85 TROUGH MAY PUSH THE
INITIAL FGEN SNOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN UPR MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...NE
WINDS TO NORTH OF THE FGEN CIRCULATION WILL BE ADVECTING DRY AIR
OVER UPR MICHIGAN FM LARGE HIGH OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...ULTIMATELY
HELPING TO SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF SYSTEM SNOW.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO
THU. SOME INIDIATION THAT WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY BRING HEAVIER SNOW FARTHER
NORTH. DEFORMATION AND PVA NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SNOW FM NORTHEAST WI INTO AT LEAST SCNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS -8C OR LOWER INDICATE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR WHERE THE LARGE SCALE SNOW IS FALLING. THE MAIN QUESTION THAT
REMAINS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL SECONDARY SURGE
OF SNOW TRACK ON WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN IS
STILL SHOWN TO BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF HEAVIER SYNOPTIC SNOW
WITH QPF AMOUNTS OVER 0.60 INCHES AT LEAST FOR MNM...BUT LATEST
TRENDS FOR NAM/GFS AND GEM SHOW LESS QPF OVER NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN
AS THEY TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND POSITION
OF SFC LOW. NOW IF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW IS FARTHER NORTH THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES ATTM...THEN GOING WATCHES WOULD HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED NORTH FOR HEAVIER SYNOPTIC SNOW AND ALSO WOULD HAVE HEAVIER
SNOW FOR HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR NORTH CENTRAL WITH
FAVORABLE NE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. VOLITILITY OF THE
MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS UP IN SREF MEMBERS WHICH SHOW LEAST SPREAD AT
KMNM /MIN OF 4 INCHES AND MAX OF 12 INCHES/ WHILE JUST NORTH OF
THERE AT KIMT/KESC AND KMQT...SPREAD RANGES FM LESS THAN 2 INCHES TO
OVER 10 INCHES.
WILL KEEP MENOMINEE IN WINTER STORM WATCH AS MAJORITY OF HEAVIER
SNOW WOULD NOT MOVE IN UNTIL WED NIGHT. NE WINDS OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -8C WOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. EVEN WITH THE WET SNOW...EXPOSURE TO NE WINDS OFF OF
THE BAY...OVER 35 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER...WILL ALSO RESULT IN
BLSN/LOW VSBY ISSUES IF WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY SNOW AFFECTS THE AREA.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF NORTHERN EDGE OF SYSTEM SNOW...DID NOT ADD ANY
OTHER PARTS OF UPR MICHIGAN INTO WATCH...THOUGH AT THE LEAST COULD
SEE NEED FOR EVENTUAL ADVISORY FOR REST OF SCNTRL AND SOUTHEAST CWA.
REST OF EXTENDED...DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SFC LOW TRACKS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN LK HURON BY THU EVENING. N TO NE WINDS ARE
CYCLONIC IN WAKE OF THE LOW ACROSS LK SUPERIOR BUT H85 TEMPS DOWN TO
-10C ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT. EXPECT COLDEST TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THU NIGHT OVER INTERIOR WEST. MOST OF FRI SHOULD BE
DRY WITH TEMPS PUSHING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. TEMPS GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH WEEKEND AS TROUGH CROSSES REGION. BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WITH
THIS FEATURE IS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. MAY SEE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING OVER THE SOUTH. LOOKS MAINLY DRY EASTER
INTO MON. STORM EARLIER ECMWF RUN SHOWED IS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SUPPOSE IT COULD COME BACK WEST...BUT
RIGHT NOW SOLUTION IS TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
TEMPS WILL STAY AT OR BLO NORMAL AS THE COOLER WEATHER PATTERN THAT
SETTLED IN LATE LAST WEEK PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF ALL THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING
AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KSAW LATE WED EVENING
AS INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NW FRINGE OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD DEVELOP SOME MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES IN NE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS SFC HIGH PRES DRIFTS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. TONIGHT/WED SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY
15-25KT WINDS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...STRONGEST OVER THE
FAR W DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING...AND 10-20KT WINDS OVER
THE E HALF. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 20-30KT WED NIGHT/THU AS THE
LOW PRES TRACKS THRU THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MIGHT SEE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E ON THU. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THRU THU
NIGHT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON FRI
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES TROF WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1214 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.AVIATION...
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THIS EVENING AGREES WITH NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE
AND 00Z DTX RAOB TO GO MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWERING CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION ONSET TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. IN FACT
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE PULLED BACK PRECIPITATION FOR THE DETROIT
TERMINALS ALL THE WAY BACK TO 00Z/24. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION ONSET
AT KMBS APPEARS SET FOR 17Z WITH ALL SNOW MENTION. ADDED MODERATE
SNOWFALL GROUP WITH VSBYS AT 1/2M. IF CONFIDENCE WERE TO IMPROVE ON
MESOSCALE BAND PLACEMENT COULD BE LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL AT KMBS. OTHERWISE ALL RAIN FOR FLINT SOUTHWARD...WITH
TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTHERN SITES WILL SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS OVERRUNNING WARM
AIR SLAB BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
FOR DTW...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS OF LESS THAN
5000 FT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW OPERATIONS WILL
LIKELY BE SUPPORTED AT/AROUND 16Z WITH FLOW SWITCHING 030-040 AT 7
KNOTS OR GREATER. PRECIPITATION ONSET APPEARS TO OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN THE FORM OF POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN WITH AN INCREASE IN NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1050 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
UPDATE...
THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING. WILL GIVE THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT
THE OPPORTUNITY TO DIGEST THE FULL 00Z SUITE BEFORE MAKING A
DETERMINATION ON THE HEADLINES.
MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH FOR IS THE STRONG AND DEEP FGEN BAND THAT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN CWA WED MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ITEM
NUMBER ONE...A COLDER PRECIPITATION TYPE SOLUTION (PREDOMINATELY
ALL SNOW) APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF M46...WITH A STRAIGHT
RAIN TO THE SOUTH. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ITEM NUMBER
TWO...PRECIPITATION RATES COULD BE QUITE HIGH WITHIN A NARROW BAND
BETWEEN 16-23Z WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO UPRIGHT
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION AND DEEP LOW STATIC STABILITY TO SOME
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. UNKNOWN YET...WHERE EXACTLY THE FGEN BAND
WILL BECOME POSITIONED. GUIDANCE BOTH 12KM NAM/13KM RAP AND THE
4KM NAM IS SUGGESTING A MESOSCALE BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
OF ROUGHLY 25 MILES WIDE...OR THE WIDTH OF A COUNTY. OVERALL...THE
NAM/ECMWF CONSENSUS ON PLACEMENT OF THE BAND HAS BEEN REASONABLY
GOOD. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN OSCILLATIONS OF THE PLACEMENT IN
THE HOURLY OUTPUT OF THE RAP. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE LOW QPF
OF THE 12Z ARW/NMM HIRES SOLUTIONS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE FGEN BAND TO ACTIVATE LOWER IN THE COLUMN OR
FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD RUN THE RISK OF SEEING MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALL AS RAIN AND LEAVE THE EVENT UNDERACHIEVING IN A
BIG WAY. WITH ALL OF THAT PRESENTED...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES TO FALL
MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME PORTION OF THE WINTER STORM
WATCH.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
DISCUSSION...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAINLY TIMING ISSUES WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN TONIGHT...LOOKING TO
START A COUPLE HOURS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE WAA PATTERN THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND WILL KEEP THE AREA MILD OVERNIGHT.
MUCH ATTENTION REMAINS ON THE MIDWEEK STORM AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR A PORTION OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE THOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO PTYPE AND AMOUNTS. THE SYSTEM WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE MOIST WITH
PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCHES AND QPF TOTALS AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH THE EVENT. A SFC FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND A GOOD FEED OF WARM AIR ALONG THE ISENTROPIC SLOPE THUS
A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT SEEMS LIKELY. POSITIONING OF THE FRONT
WILL BE KEY TO WHERE THE SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND PURE RAIN WILL
FALL. THE COMPLEX AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL CUT INTO ANY
SNOWFALL TOTALS BUT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY EXTENDING
SOUTH TO THE I69 CORRIDOR. FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE HAS BEEN TO LEAN
MORE TOWARD A FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO AND AWAY FROM A HEAVY SNOW
SCENARIO DUE TO THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR IN THE BL AND DEPTH OF WARM
AIR /900-750MB/ ADVECTING IN ALOFT. WITH THE POSSIBLE DURATION OF
THE FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTH BEING FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OVER A QUARTER INCH. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM,
TIMING, AND PTYPE ISSUES...WILL HOLD ONTO THE WATCH ONE MORE PERIOD.
OVERALL WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT NORTH OF I69
OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
AS FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE 850-700MB FRONT WILL
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IN THE 15-18Z TIME WINDOW AS ENERGY EJECTING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH PHASES WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN
ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME COMPRESSION OF THE FRONTAL SFC IN
BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SFC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
SINKING SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL 700MB FRONT WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN MI
WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT AS THE LOW DRAWS NEARER WE WILL LOOK FOR A
RESURGENCE OF FGEN ALONG THE 850MB FRONT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY
AND NORTHERN THUMB. THIS SECONDARY FGEN BAND WILL THEN SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW WILL NOT LIFT THROUGH LOWER MI UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING AND
LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN MI WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME
NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. SO PTYPE
CONCERNS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THE LOW
LIFTING THROUGH SE MI WILL ALLOW THE WARM SECTOR TO CLIP OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO HAVE INTRODUCED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF M59. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEALING WITH THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND DEFORMATION REGION OF THE EXITING LOW. WILL ONCE
AGAIN LOOK TO THERMAL PROFILE CHANGING WITH THE COOLER AIR WRAPPING
IN BUT LOOKS LIKE A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.
THE MID WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST AND TAKE ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION OUT OF SE MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TAKE ITS PLACE AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST ONE DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL KEEP SMALLER SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING STEADILY
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
COMMENCE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SUCH SYSTEM FOR THE GREAT LAKES.
TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS LOW PREDICTABILITY DURING
THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PERIOD WHILE ENOUGH WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR AREA
ONCE IT DOES ARRIVE...OR POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO EXPECTATIONS ON PATTERN
RECOGNITION THAT SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG UPPER JET AND
TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WOULD THEN LEAVE BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND STALL ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THIS FRONT WHILE STRENGTHENING.
THIS LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAT
WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY BEHIND THE PASSING LOW. GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON ALONG WITH STEADY SNOW.
HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE
DETROIT AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE ABOUT A HALF OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS AND AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE SOME MAY FALL AS SNOW. THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WITH THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
EXIT THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL. THIRTY
SIX HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND
SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...DRAINAGES AND SMALL CREEKS.
MAIN RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES AND
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
MIZ047>049-053>055.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LHZ361>363.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
UPDATE.......CB
DISCUSSION...DRK/BT
MARINE.......DRC
HYDROLOGY....DRC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1108 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS OUR STORM FOR WEDNESDAY WORKING
ACROSS UTAH. AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH COLORADO
TONIGHT...CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER. MAIN CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS A REDUCTION OF
POPS WITH THE EXPECTED LEAD FGEN BAND ALONG WHAT AMOUNTS TO A WARM
FRONT AROUND H7. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/RAP HIGHLIGHT THE
PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT AND IT IS VERY DRY AIR THAT IS JUST SLOW TO
BUDGE BELOW 10K FT. THE MODEL THAT IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
MOISTENING THIS LATER IS THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE RAP HAS OUR AREA
DRY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HOPWRF MEMBERS NOT SHOWING
ANYTHING COMING INTO THE WEST UNTIL AROUND 9Z...SO WAS RELUCTANT
TO GO AS AGGRESSIVE AS WHAT THE GFS HAS. FOR POPS THOUGH...DID
FOLLOW A TREND OF THE CAMS...WHICH SHOWS A BAND OF PRECIP MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z WITH THAT BAND TRYING TO
FILL IN OVER TOWARD RED WING THROUGH 12Z. FOR P-TYPE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE 50S SOUTH OF I-94...WILL TAKE SOME TIME
FOR US TO COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW...WITH INITIAL PRECIP
STARTING OUT AS A MIX THAT WILL PROGRESSIVELY CHANGE TO MOSTLY
SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAINS A CHALLENGE
AS MODEL SOLUTIONS TODAY HAVE ADDED MORE SPREAD TO THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST. IN A NUTSHELL...THE NAM AND GFS HAVE PUSHED THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH...WHICH WOULD GIVE AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TWIN CITIES HEAVY SNOWFALL...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS PUSHED THINGS QUITE A BIT TO THE SOUTH. IN FACT...IF THE
ECMWF VERIFIES...MOST OF THE TWIN CITIES WILL NOT EVEN SEE SNOW
WITH ONLY SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA HAVING HEAVY SNOW. TRYING TO SORT
OUT THE DIFFERENCES STARTS WITH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CAMS AS WELL AS THE NAM AND GFS WOULD
HAVE A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF MINNESOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
FRONTOGENESIS. THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
IN IA AND SPREADING EAST NORTHEAST INTO WI. THE DIFFERENCE SEEMS
TIED TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE
ECMWF HAVING THE CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.
THEREFORE...WITH KEPT THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FROM THE TWIN
CITIES ON SOUTHWEST THROUGH REDWOOD FALLS AND NEW ULM FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS WOULD GIVE
THESE AREAS TWO CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION SNOW. THE FIRST WOULD BE
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND THEN AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE. TOTALS COULD REACH INTO THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE. OFFICIAL
AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS ARE MORE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE. WITH
CONFIDENCE HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST
CENTRAL WI FOR HEAVY SNOW...THE WATCH WAS CHANGED TO A WARNING.
SNOW TOTALS FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH THE HIGH END
AMOUNTS FROM ALBERT LEA TO NEAR EAU CLAIRE. IN ADDITION...THESE
AREAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 25 TO 30
MPH CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SOME TREE DAMAGE MAY
OCCUR DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE QUITE DIFFICULT IN THESE
AREAS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A NICE BULLSEYE SEEN WITH THE OMEGA NEARLY MAXED OUT IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
THE SNOW WILL END FOR THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE FA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE START ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR 50 DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH
IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES SINCE THERE SHOULD STILL
BE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PV
ANOMALY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND LEAD TO CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP WILL BE A WINTRY
MIX...WITH SNOW FAVORED OVERNIGHT...AND RAIN DURING THE DAY AS THE
THERMAL PROFILE WARMS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
NE WINDS IN THE 15G25KT RANGE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 30
HOURS. AS FOR THE IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM...SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW FOR SRN MN...SO KAXN LIKELY TO AVOID
THIS ACTION WHILE KSTC MAY AVOID MOST OF IT. AM KEEPING CONDS AS
VFR AT BOTH KAXN-KSTC...THOUGH KSTC COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MVFR
CONDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY AFTN TMRW. THE REMAINING TAF SITES
WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED WITH MOD-HVY SNOW AT TIMES... DROPPING
CONDS INTO IFR-OR-LOWER AT TIMES MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK TMRW THRU
MUCH OF TMRW AFTN. STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND TIMING OF
HOW QUICKLY DRY AIR WILL BE OVERCOME IS STILL A BIT PROBLEMATIC...
BUT THE OVERARCHING THOUGHT IS THAT LIGHTER -SN WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA STARTING AROUND 12Z WITH THE MAIN IMPACTFUL -SN AROUND 16Z
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 22Z...POSSIBLY EVEN BEYOND 00Z IN THE WI TAF
SITES.
KMSP...HAVE TWEAKED THE DETAILS IN THE KMSP TAF IN BREAKING DOWN
THE LIGHTER-TO-HEAVIER SNOW TIMING AFTER DAYBREAK. STILL COULD BE
EVEN EARLIER THAN WHAT IS ADVERTISED PER A FEW SHORT-TERM MODELS
WITH MVFR CONDS STILL AS EARLY AS 10Z AND VSBY INTO IFR RANGE AS
EARLY AS 15Z. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NE WINDS WHICH MAY
CAUSE BLSN ISSUES...ALONG WITH WINDS STAYING 030-050 ALL DAY WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 15G25KT WHICH COULD IN AND OF ITSELF PRESENT RUNWAY
USAGE CONCERNS. WINDS LOOKS TO BACK CLOSER TO NLY AFTER THE -SN
ENDS TMRW EVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...SN ENDING IN MRNG. AFTN VFR. WINDS N 10-20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
SAT...MVFR. CHC -RA/-SN. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR WIZ024>028.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WIZ023.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ060-062-063-065>070-073>076.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR MNZ077-078-082>085-091>093.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...MPG/RAH
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
343 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
THE SLOWER RAP MODEL AND HRRR MODEL ARE PREFERRED WHICH CONTINUE
SNOW CONTINUING IN EASTERN AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BETTER GUESS IS WHEN THE THIRD OF THREE SNOW BANDS DEVELOPS
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE SECOND ONGOING SNOW
BAND WILL FALL APART.
THE FORECAST BLENDS SOME OF THE SLOWER RAPID UPDATE MODELS WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH ADDS AN INCH OR TWO SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SWRN NEB AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. GIVEN THE
WARM GROUND AND SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR LESS PER HOUR THUS
FAR...FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS COULD ACTUALLY BE TOO HIGH IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE OPEN AREAS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN DROP OFF. EARLIER GUSTS OF 60 TO 64
MPH HAVE VANISHED. MOST OF THOSE GUSTS WERE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT
FROM 65 KT WINDS AT 3KFT PER KLNX VWP SO THE GUSTS ARE AT THE
MERCY OF VERTICAL MIXING.
SKIES BY MORNING SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN AT ALL LEVELS. THE LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ARE MODEST.
WINDS ALOFT WOULD CONTINUE STRONG PREVENTING A DEEP INVERSION IN
MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE WRN SANDHILLS WHERE SINGLE OR
NEAR SINGLE DIGITS AREA EXPECTED.
ALL FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS WILL OPERATE IN PLACE. NO UPGRADES APPEAR
TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM HAS GENERALLY BEEN WELL-
BEHAVED. THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR A SURPRISE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THIS STORM.
LASTLY...THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE
RESULT OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE RAP HAS SHOWN ONLY WEAK SKILL WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE 750MB BARRIER JET IS QUITE STRONG.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP TO AROUND 50 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...HOWEVER MODELS MAY BE UNDERDONE
ON WHAT IS AVAILABLE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW
MELT/EVAPORATION FROM PRECIP FROM ONGOING STORM. THAT
SAID...MODELS FOCUS MOST OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
POCKETS ACROSS THE CWA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW POPS.
TEMPS COOL OFF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH
SNOW INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY BY
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
NEB/KS BORDER AND COLD LINGER SOME RAIN/SNOW ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEB INTO SATURDAY. COLD AIR IS DRAWN IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40 FOR SATURDAY. A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF MARCH.
WARM FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WARM UP FOR EASTER
SUNDAY. HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...50S...AND DRY. EVEN
WARMER...60S...FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM
EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS FOR MID WEEK...AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
A MAJOR WINTER STORM SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA AROUND 10Z
ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL THUS
FAR. VFR/LOCAL MVFR IS EXPECTED 10Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
WINDS TODAY 01035G45KT LOCALLY G50KT DECREASE TO 35025G40KT THIS
EVENING AND TO 34015G25KT FROM 06Z ONWARD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ THURSDAY FOR
NEZ006>010-025>029-036>038-057>059-069-070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004-094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ005-022>024-035-056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1249 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR REVISIONS ARE NEEDED
WITH THE MID DAY UPDATE. HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AS FIRST FRONTOGENETICAL BAND REMAINS TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR EVIDENCE SUGGESTS A SECOND BAND IS
BEGINNING TO FROM FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT A QUICK CHANGE TO SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT.
TO THE SOUTH...THINGS WERE STARTING TO DESTABILIZE IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF THICK CLOUD SHIELD TO THE
NORTH. SUBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE OF 500 J/KG WITH 1000
J/KG AREA NOT FAR SOUTH. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ATTENDANT TO EJECTING MID LEVEL LOW RIDES
OVERHEAD. A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHEAST WAS NOTED IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE WARM FRONT HAS BRIDGED NORTH. MOST SHORT
RANGE HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TO THIS BOUNDARY LIGHTING UP BY
21Z. BULK SHEAR AND LOWER LEVEL HELICITY/SHEAR SUGGEST ALL MODES
OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. SPC HAS INCLUDED THIS
AREA IN LIGHT RISK WITH THEIR LATE MORNING UPDATE...AND OUTLINED A
5 PERCENT TORNADO RISK AS WELL.
IN BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE AREAS...A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD RIDE AS FAR NORTH AS
COLUMBUS...NORFOLK AND WAYNE LINE WHERE LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE
FLIRTING WITH EITHER SIDE OR RAIN/SNOW LINE. SLEET WILL LIKELY
OCCUR WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN THE
OMAHA METRO...LOOKS LIKE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RULE THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN EXITING STORMS AND
PRECIP SHIELD TO THE NORTHWEST. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BEGINS TO
WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COMMA HEAD PRECIP SWINGS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THUS DECREASING SNOWFALL RATES ARE FORECAST THEN...LEAVING MUCH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND SOUTH WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
...A VERY DYNAMIC 24 HOURS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY IN OUR
NORTH AND POTENTIAL STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUR SOUTHEAST...
SYNOPSIS: LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AT 300 MB
OFF THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...A 120KT JET MAX WAS DIGGING DOWN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/NOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION.
HEADING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS...A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA AT 850MB WITH A 50KT SWRLY JET EXTENDING ACROSS OKLAHOMA
NEWD INTO SRN MISSOURI AND INDIANA. THE RELATIVELY WEAK MOIST
TONGUE EXTENDED FROM TX/LA GULF COAST NWD TO KOAX. LATEST EARLY
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
NEB/KS BORDER AND EWD INTO NRN MISSOURI. OF NOTE...AS OF 09Z THE
32F ISOTHERM WAS QUICKLY CREEPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A FEW WAA SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BRIEF AND EXIT THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
THUNDERSTORMS: THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
QUICKLY PROGRESS EWD FROM NORTHERN COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 00Z/THU AND THEN SHIFT NEWD OVER THE CWA BY 06Z/THU. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW INTO
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID 70S IN OUR FAR SOUTH. CONCERN
THIS AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE 19-20Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE 4KM
NCAR ENSEMBLES INDICATE AS WELL AS RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND THE
HRRR. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED BUT WITH FULL SUN POTENTIAL WE
SHOULD GET A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR. DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF/WHEN
CONVECTION DOES GET GOING...IT WOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS AND
MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA AS THE DRYLINE
THEN LIGHTS UP TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST. DO FEEL THAT SOME SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM.
WINTER WX: THE ONLY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS HEADLINES WAS TO ADD BURT
AND MONONA COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY AND END IT 3 HOURS
EARLIER...AT 09Z. OTHERWISE THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS AS
IS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND QUICKLY TURN RAIN
OVER TO SNOW ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER CLOSE TO 18Z. WE THEN MARCH
THE RA/SN LINE SWD THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS AND TURN OVER TO ALL
SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 BY MID/LATE EVENING. EVENTUALLY
THE ENTIRE CWA WILL TURN OVER TO SNOW AROUND THE TIME THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. HAVE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 5-7" IN THE
WARNING AREA...TO 2-5" IN THE ADVISORY AREA. NEW 06Z NAM IS
CONCERNING WITH COLDER AIR/INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE TRENDS. AN INCH OR SO MAY ACCUMULATE
AROUND THE OMA/LNK METRO AREAS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF
I-80. SNOW SHOULD BE WET/HEAVY INITIALLY WITH RAIN/SNOW AROUND 5:1
BUT AS STRONG CAA MOVES IN WE SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO AROUND 11:1 IN
THE NORTH. BLOWING AND DRIFTING LOOK TO BE MAINLY AN ISSUE AFTER
DARK AS THE SNOW BECOMES DRIER/LIGHTER.
REGARDING WINDS: WITH COMPLEXITY OF ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO SNOW...WE FELT THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WERE WELL COVERED WITHIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A FEW
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA MAY REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WE ARE GOING TO TAKE THE LEAST COMPLICATED
ROUTE THIS MORNING AND HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE DAY
SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS CONDITIONS LIKELY
WOULDN`T BE REACHED...IF AT ALL...UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ANYWAY.
SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL OUT AFTER 06Z WITH DEFORMATION AXIS
REMAINING IN OUR NORTHEAST UNTIL AROUND 09Z OR SO. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE QUICK TO BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD
PUSH TEMPS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. DID KEEP SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS IN OUR FAR NORTH WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WITHIN THIS LONG-WAVE TROUGH A
STRONGER...POTENTIALLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE TRACKING
EWD INTO THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS
GENERAL PATTERN BUT DIFFER IN TIMING AND LATITUDE TO TRACK THIS
SYSTEM CROSSES THE PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES AND WE MAY SEE AN ISO SHOWER OR TWO DURING
THE DAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY IN SE NEB/SW IA...WILL OCCUR ON SAT NIGHT AS THE
BEST HEIGHT FALLS TRACK ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID...BUT WE WILL CONT TO INCLUDE A RA/SN MIX
ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
EAST.
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP WE
SHOULD SEE A WARMUP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN US AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOST GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO EJECT NEAR THE END OF
THIS FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
MAINLY IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT KOFK THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS CIGS REMAIN BELOW FL010. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...BEFORE A MIX
OF SLEET...RAIN AND SNOW PREVAILS BEFORE 00Z. AFTER
00Z...SNOW...AND AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW...IS FORECAST TO DROP
CIGS/VSBYS INTO VLIFR CATEGORY AT TIMES. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO WIND
DOWN AFTER 06Z WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS.
KLNK AND KOMA WILL SEE MVFR CIGS EARLY BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AROUND 21Z AND EXIT THE AREA BY 01Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS. THEN A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR IS
FORECAST BY 06Z WHEN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SNOW.
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 12Z
WHEN SNOW ENDS...AND A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CIGS CONTINUES THROUGH
18Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR NEZ015-018-030>034-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016-
017.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UTAH. EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...ZONAL FLOW EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EXTENDED NORTH
FROM OFF THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA...TO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE.
CURRENT WV IMAGERY AS OF 3 AM CDT...HAS THE H5 LOW NOW CROSSING
CENTRAL COLORADO...BEGINNING TO EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS JUST EAST OF
DENVER. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION IN THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF DENVER INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST INTO NERN KS.
NORTH OF THE LOW...AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO INTO EASTERN WYOMING. ALONG AND
WEST OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW...WHILE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...TEMPERATURES WERE STILL
IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT. SKIES WERE CLOUDY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHILE
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 40 AT AINSWORTH TO 45 AT
OGALLALA AND BROKEN BOW.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KEITH COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MDT. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS AND THE NAM ARE A BIT SLOWER
KEEPING SNOW GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ALSO...INCREASED FORECAST WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO 57 MPH ON A HILLTOP NORTH OF NORTH
PLATTE. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS INCREASE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING 60 MPH GUSTS WILL OCCUR IN
SEVERAL LOCATION NEAR INTERSTATE 80. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS 70KT
WINDS AT 800MB AND 750MB THIS AFTERNOON AND THE HRRR AND RAP
SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS OF OVER 50KT...58 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. FOR TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...ENDING UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 00Z
THUS. STRONG DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
WILL DEVELOP ROUGHLY ALONG A IMPERIAL TO NORTH PLATTE...TO ONEILL
LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WHICH WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
AND MISERABLE TRAVEL CONDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH RESPECT TO THE CURRENT FCST...A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FCST AND GRIDS. MOST NOTABLE
CHANGE WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PCPN AROUND 3 HRS IN THE SERN CWA
THIS MORNING WHICH REFLECTS THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR SOLNS WHICH
WERE A TAD SLOWER OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE CHANGE OVER FOR NORTH
PLATTE BEING IN THE NOON TO 2 PM TIME FRAME. THE INHERITED PTYPE
GRIDS HAD THIS HANDLED REAL WELL AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE. AS FOR
QPF/S AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NATL
GUIDANCE FOR QPF/S AND SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT THE WPC SNOW ACCUM BLEND.
THIS WAS BASED ON TWO ASSUMPTIONS...FIRST GROUND TEMPS ARE VERY
WARM SINCE WE HAD 80 DEGREE HIGHS THE LAST TWO DAYS...AND
SECOND...THE BULK OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS AND THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD SLOW DOWN
ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT. THE END FORECAST WAS A BROAD AREA OF 5 TO
8 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ROUGHLY 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM GRANT TO BREWSTER...TO ONEILL. WITH RESPECT TO HEADLINES FOR
TODAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND
WINTER STORM WARNING. DECIDED AGAINST UPGRADING TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING AS THERE IS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE
VISBYS BELOW 1/4 OF A MILE THIS AFTERNOON. IF BLIZZARD CONDS DO
OCCUR...IT WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED AND WITHIN THE BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. BY EVENING...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
NWRN MO WITH A SECONDARY DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP OVER NERN
NEBRASKA INTO NRN IOWA. PCPN SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER THROUGH 09Z THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EXTENDED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA
THROUGH 09Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN THE NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY. SOME DECENT LIFT WILL SKIRT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS WAVE. MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED HOWEVER...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH TO GET A FEW
SHOWERS IN A TOP DOWN SATURATION TYPE SITUATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO
COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH THAT A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP AT THIS POINT IS EXPECTED
TO BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH.
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE ROCKIES AND THEN TURN EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS EASTER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE
WISE...COOL/CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN INTRUSION OF CANADIAN AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH IN THE
WAKE OF FRIDAY/S DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
MODELS AGREE THIS COULD BE A RATHER POTENT CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM AND
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE A WARM UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
A MAJOR WINTER STORM SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA AROUND 10Z
ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL THUS FAR.
VFR/LOCAL MVFR IS EXPECTED 10Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
WINDS TODAY 01035G45KT LOCALLY G50KT DECREASE TO 35025G40KT THIS
EVENING AND TO 34015G25KT FROM 06Z ONWARD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ THURSDAY FOR
NEZ006-008-025-026-036-037-057>059-069-070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004-094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ005-022>024-035-056.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ007-009-010-
027>029-038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1104 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UTAH. EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...ZONAL FLOW EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EXTENDED NORTH
FROM OFF THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA...TO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE.
CURRENT WV IMAGERY AS OF 3 AM CDT...HAS THE H5 LOW NOW CROSSING
CENTRAL COLORADO...BEGINNING TO EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS JUST EAST OF
DENVER. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION IN THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF DENVER INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST INTO NERN KS.
NORTH OF THE LOW...AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO INTO EASTERN WYOMING. ALONG AND
WEST OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW...WHILE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...TEMPERATURES WERE STILL
IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT. SKIES WERE CLOUDY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHILE
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 40 AT AINSWORTH TO 45 AT
OGALLALA AND BROKEN BOW.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KEITH COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MDT. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS AND THE NAM ARE A BIT SLOWER
KEEPING SNOW GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ALSO...INCREASED FORECAST WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO 57 MPH ON A HILLTOP NORTH OF NORTH
PLATTE. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS INCREASE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING 60 MPH GUSTS WILL OCCUR IN
SEVERAL LOCATION NEAR INTERSTATE 80. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS 70KT
WINDS AT 800MB AND 750MB THIS AFTERNOON AND THE HRRR AND RAP
SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS OF OVER 50KT...58 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. FOR TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...ENDING UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 00Z
THUS. STRONG DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
WILL DEVELOP ROUGHLY ALONG A IMPERIAL TO NORTH PLATTE...TO ONEILL
LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WHICH WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
AND MISERABLE TRAVEL CONDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH RESPECT TO THE CURRENT FCST...A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FCST AND GRIDS. MOST NOTABLE
CHANGE WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PCPN AROUND 3 HRS IN THE SERN CWA
THIS MORNING WHICH REFLECTS THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR SOLNS WHICH
WERE A TAD SLOWER OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE CHANGE OVER FOR NORTH
PLATTE BEING IN THE NOON TO 2 PM TIME FRAME. THE INHERITED PTYPE
GRIDS HAD THIS HANDLED REAL WELL AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE. AS FOR
QPF/S AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NATL
GUIDANCE FOR QPF/S AND SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT THE WPC SNOW ACCUM BLEND.
THIS WAS BASED ON TWO ASSUMPTIONS...FIRST GROUND TEMPS ARE VERY
WARM SINCE WE HAD 80 DEGREE HIGHS THE LAST TWO DAYS...AND
SECOND...THE BULK OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS AND THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD SLOW DOWN
ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT. THE END FORECAST WAS A BROAD AREA OF 5 TO
8 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ROUGHLY 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM GRANT TO BREWSTER...TO ONEILL. WITH RESPECT TO HEADLINES FOR
TODAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND
WINTER STORM WARNING. DECIDED AGAINST UPGRADING TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING AS THERE IS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE
VISBYS BELOW 1/4 OF A MILE THIS AFTERNOON. IF BLIZZARD CONDS DO
OCCUR...IT WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED AND WITHIN THE BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. BY EVENING...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
NWRN MO WITH A SECONDARY DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP OVER NERN
NEBRASKA INTO NRN IOWA. PCPN SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER THROUGH 09Z THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EXTENDED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA
THROUGH 09Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN THE NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY. SOME DECENT LIFT WILL SKIRT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS WAVE. MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED HOWEVER...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH TO GET A FEW
SHOWERS IN A TOP DOWN SATURATION TYPE SITUATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO
COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH THAT A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP AT THIS POINT IS EXPECTED
TO BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH.
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE ROCKIES AND THEN TURN EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS EASTER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE
WISE...COOL/CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN INTRUSION OF CANADIAN AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH IN THE
WAKE OF FRIDAY/S DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
MODELS AGREE THIS COULD BE A RATHER POTENT CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM AND
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE A WARM UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
A POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINTRY WEATHER AND
PERIODS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. FOR
THE KLBF TERMINAL...CIGS WILL FALL THIS MORNING TO UNDER 1000 FT
AGL BY LATE MORNING CIGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 1000 FT AGL THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. LOOK FOR
SNOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. VISBYS MAY REACH A QUARTER MILE WITH 200 FT AGL
CIGS. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT CIGS BELOW 1000 FT AGL
TODAY...IMPROVING TO 5000 FT AGL AFTER 01Z THURSDAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING
WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS 1/2SM THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY FALL AS LOW
AS 400 FT AGL WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM 17Z THROUGH 21Z WEDS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ THURSDAY FOR
NEZ006-008-025-026-036-037-057>059-069-070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004-094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ005-022>024-035-056.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ007-009-010-
027>029-038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
...A VERY DYNAMIC 24 HOURS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY IN OUR
NORTH AND POTENTIAL STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUR SOUTHEAST...
SYNOPSIS: LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AT 300 MB
OFF THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...A 120KT JET MAX WAS DIGGING DOWN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/NOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION.
HEADING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS...A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA AT 850MB WITH A 50KT SWRLY JET EXTENDING ACROSS OKLAHOMA
NEWD INTO SRN MISSOURI AND INDIANA. THE RELATIVELY WEAK MOIST
TONGUE EXTENDED FROM TX/LA GULF COAST NWD TO KOAX. LATEST EARLY
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
NEB/KS BORDER AND EWD INTO NRN MISSOURI. OF NOTE...AS OF 09Z THE
32F ISOTHERM WAS QUICKLY CREEPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A FEW WAA SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BRIEF AND EXIT THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
THUNDERSTORMS: THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
QUICKLY PROGRESS EWD FROM NORTHERN COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 00Z/THU AND THEN SHIFT NEWD OVER THE CWA BY 06Z/THU. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW INTO
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID 70S IN OUR FAR SOUTH. CONCERN
THIS AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE 19-20Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE 4KM
NCAR ENSEMBLES INDICATE AS WELL AS RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND THE
HRRR. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED BUT WITH FULL SUN POTENTIAL WE
SHOULD GET A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR. DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF/WHEN
CONVECTION DOES GET GOING...IT WOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS AND
MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA AS THE DRYLINE
THEN LIGHTS UP TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST. DO FEEL THAT SOME SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM.
WINTER WX: THE ONLY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS HEADLINES WAS TO ADD BURT
AND MONONA COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY AND END IT 3 HOURS
EARLIER...AT 09Z. OTHERWISE THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS AS
IS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND QUICKLY TURN RAIN
OVER TO SNOW ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER CLOSE TO 18Z. WE THEN MARCH
THE RA/SN LINE SWD THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS AND TURN OVER TO ALL
SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 BY MID/LATE EVENING. EVENTUALLY
THE ENTIRE CWA WILL TURN OVER TO SNOW AROUND THE TIME THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. HAVE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 5-7" IN THE
WARNING AREA...TO 2-5" IN THE ADVISORY AREA. NEW 06Z NAM IS
CONCERNING WITH COLDER AIR/INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE TRENDS. AN INCH OR SO MAY ACCUMULATE
AROUND THE OMA/LNK METRO AREAS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF
I-80. SNOW SHOULD BE WET/HEAVY INITIALLY WITH RAIN/SNOW AROUND 5:1
BUT AS STRONG CAA MOVES IN WE SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO AROUND 11:1 IN
THE NORTH. BLOWING AND DRIFTING LOOK TO BE MAINLY AN ISSUE AFTER
DARK AS THE SNOW BECOMES DRIER/LIGHTER.
REGARDING WINDS: WITH COMPLEXITY OF ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO SNOW...WE FELT THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WERE WELL COVERED WITHIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A FEW
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA MAY REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WE ARE GOING TO TAKE THE LEAST COMPLICATED
ROUTE THIS MORNING AND HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE DAY
SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS CONDITIONS LIKELY
WOULDN`T BE REACHED...IF AT ALL...UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ANYWAY.
SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL OUT AFTER 06Z WITH DEFORMATION AXIS
REMAINING IN OUR NORTHEAST UNTIL AROUND 09Z OR SO. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE QUICK TO BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD
PUSH TEMPS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. DID KEEP SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS IN OUR FAR NORTH WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WITHIN THIS LONG-WAVE TROUGH A
STRONGER...POTENTIALLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE TRACKING
EWD INTO THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS
GENERAL PATTERN BUT DIFFER IN TIMING AND LATITUDE TO TRACK THIS
SYSTEM CROSSES THE PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES AND WE MAY SEE AN ISO SHOWER OR TWO DURING
THE DAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY IN SE NEB/SW IA...WILL OCCUR ON SAT NIGHT AS THE
BEST HEIGHT FALLS TRACK ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID...BUT WE WILL CONT TO INCLUDE A RA/SN MIX
ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
EAST.
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP WE
SHOULD SEE A WARMUP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN US AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOST GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO EJECT NEAR THE END OF
THIS FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD CIGS
WILL BE LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK WHERE
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DVLP BY AFTN WITH -RA/DZ AS WELL. ISO/SCT
SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY AT KLNK/KOMA BY LATE AFTN FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. THE RA WILL BECOME SN AT KOFK THIS EVNG
WITH SOME +SN POSSIBLE THERE. KOMA/KLNK WILL LIKELY SEE A RA/SN
MIX BECOME ALL SN FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT...BUT LESS IMPACTS THAN AT
KOFK. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THEY VEER
TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS AOA 25 KT WITH
GUSTS OVER 35 KT ARE LIKELY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR NEZ015-018-030>034-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016-017.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
402 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
...A VERY DYNAMIC 24 HOURS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY IN OUR
NORTH AND POTENTIAL STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUR SOUTHEAST...
SYNOPSIS: LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AT 300 MB
OFF THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...A 120KT JET MAX WAS DIGGING DOWN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/NOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION.
HEADING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS...A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA AT 850MB WITH A 50KT SWRLY JET EXTENDING ACROSS OKLAHOMA
NEWD INTO SRN MISSOURI AND INDIANA. THE RELATIVELY WEAK MOIST
TONGUE EXTENDED FROM TX/LA GULF COAST NWD TO KOAX. LATEST EARLY
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
NEB/KS BORDER AND EWD INTO NRN MISSOURI. OF NOTE...AS OF 09Z THE
32F ISOTHERM WAS QUICKLY CREEPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A FEW WAA SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BRIEF AND EXIT THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
THUNDERSTORMS: THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
QUICKLY PROGRESS EWD FROM NORTHERN COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 00Z/THU AND THEN SHIFT NEWD OVER THE CWA BY 06Z/THU. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW INTO
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID 70S IN OUR FAR SOUTH. CONCERN
THIS AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE 19-20Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE 4KM
NCAR ENSEMBLES INDICATE AS WELL AS RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND THE
HRRR. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED BUT WITH FULL SUN POTENTIAL WE
SHOULD GET A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR. DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF/WHEN
CONVECTION DOES GET GOING...IT WOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS AND
MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA AS THE DRYLINE
THEN LIGHTS UP TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST. DO FEEL THAT SOME SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM.
WINTER WX: THE ONLY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS HEADLINES WAS TO ADD BURT
AND MONONA COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY AND END IT 3 HOURS
EARLIER...AT 09Z. OTHERWISE THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS AS
IS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND QUICKLY TURN RAIN
OVER TO SNOW ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER CLOSE TO 18Z. WE THEN MARCH
THE RA/SN LINE SWD THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS AND TURN OVER TO ALL
SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 BY MID/LATE EVENING. EVENTUALLY
THE ENTIRE CWA WILL TURN OVER TO SNOW AROUND THE TIME THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. HAVE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 5-7" IN THE
WARNING AREA...TO 2-5" IN THE ADVISORY AREA. NEW 06Z NAM IS
CONCERNING WITH COLDER AIR/INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE TRENDS. AN INCH OR SO MAY ACCUMULATE
AROUND THE OMA/LNK METRO AREAS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF
I-80. SNOW SHOULD BE WET/HEAVY INITIALLY WITH RAIN/SNOW AROUND 5:1
BUT AS STRONG CAA MOVES IN WE SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO AROUND 11:1 IN
THE NORTH. BLOWING AND DRIFTING LOOK TO BE MAINLY AN ISSUE AFTER
DARK AS THE SNOW BECOMES DRIER/LIGHTER.
REGARDING WINDS: WITH COMPLEXITY OF ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO SNOW...WE FELT THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WERE WELL COVERED WITHIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A FEW
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA MAY REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WE ARE GOING TO TAKE THE LEAST COMPLICATED
ROUTE THIS MORNING AND HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE DAY
SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS CONDITIONS LIKELY
WOULDN`T BE REACHED...IF AT ALL...UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ANYWAY.
SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL OUT AFTER 06Z WITH DEFORMATION AXIS
REMAINING IN OUR NORTHEAST UNTIL AROUND 09Z OR SO. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE QUICK TO BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD
PUSH TEMPS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. DID KEEP SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS IN OUR FAR NORTH WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WITHIN THIS LONG-WAVE TROUGH A
STRONGER...POTENTIALLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE TRACKING
EWD INTO THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS
GENERAL PATTERN BUT DIFFER IN TIMING AND LATITUDE TO TRACK THIS
SYSTEM CROSSES THE PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES AND WE MAY SEE AN ISO SHOWER OR TWO DURING
THE DAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY IN SE NEB/SW IA...WILL OCCUR ON SAT NIGHT AS THE
BEST HEIGHT FALLS TRACK ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID...BUT WE WILL CONT TO INCLUDE A RA/SN MIX
ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
EAST.
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP WE
SHOULD SEE A WARMUP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN US AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOST GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO EJECT NEAR THE END OF
THIS FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT KOFK/KOMA IN
THE MORNING...AND THEN TO IFR AROUND MIDDAY AT KOFK AND
POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE TAF CYCLE AT KOMA. AT KOFK...RAIN SHOULD
START AROUND 12-15Z...CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN SNOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY NOT BE FAST ENOUGH
BUT IS TRENDING FASTER FROM PREVIOUS TAF SETS. HAVE INDICATED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE EVENING AT KOMA. KLNK MAY
STAY IN THE WARM AIR LONGER...WITH MORE OF A SHOWERY TYPE OF RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN AND PERHAPS RAIN/SNOW
LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR NEZ015-018-030>034-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016-017.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UTAH. EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...ZONAL FLOW EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EXTENDED NORTH
FROM OFF THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA...TO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE.
CURRENT WV IMAGERY AS OF 3 AM CDT...HAS THE H5 LOW NOW CROSSING
CENTRAL COLORADO...BEGINNING TO EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS JUST EAST OF
DENVER. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION IN THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF DENVER INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST INTO NERN KS.
NORTH OF THE LOW...AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO INTO EASTERN WYOMING. ALONG AND
WEST OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW...WHILE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...TEMPERATURES WERE STILL
IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT. SKIES WERE CLOUDY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHILE
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 40 AT AINSWORTH TO 45 AT
OGALLALA AND BROKEN BOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. FOR TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...ENDING UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 00Z
THUS. STRONG DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
WILL DEVELOP ROUGHLY ALONG A IMPERIAL TO NORTH PLATTE...TO ONEILL
LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WHICH WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
AND MISERABLE TRAVEL CONDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH RESPECT TO THE CURRENT FCST...A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FCST AND GRIDS. MOST NOTABLE
CHANGE WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PCPN AROUND 3 HRS IN THE SERN CWA
THIS MORNING WHICH REFLECTS THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR SOLNS WHICH
WERE A TAD SLOWER OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE CHANGE OVER FOR NORTH
PLATTE BEING IN THE NOON TO 2 PM TIME FRAME. THE INHERITED PTYPE
GRIDS HAD THIS HANDLED REAL WELL AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE. AS FOR
QPF/S AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NATL
GUIDANCE FOR QPF/S AND SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT THE WPC SNOW ACCUM BLEND.
THIS WAS BASED ON TWO ASSUMPTIONS...FIRST GROUND TEMPS ARE VERY
WARM SINCE WE HAD 80 DEGREE HIGHS THE LAST TWO DAYS...AND
SECOND...THE BULK OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS AND THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD SLOW DOWN
ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT. THE END FORECAST WAS A BROAD AREA OF 5 TO
8 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ROUGHLY 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM GRANT TO BREWSTER...TO ONEILL. WITH RESPECT TO HEADLINES FOR
TODAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND
WINTER STORM WARNING. DECIDED AGAINST UPGRADING TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING AS THERE IS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE
VISBYS BELOW 1/4 OF A MILE THIS AFTERNOON. IF BLIZZARD CONDS DO
OCCUR...IT WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED AND WITHIN THE BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. BY EVENING...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
NWRN MO WITH A SECONDARY DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP OVER NERN
NEBRASKA INTO NRN IOWA. PCPN SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER THROUGH 09Z THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EXTENDED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA
THROUGH 09Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN THE NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY. SOME DECENT LIFT WILL SKIRT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS WAVE. MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED HOWEVER...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH TO GET A FEW
SHOWERS IN A TOP DOWN SATURATION TYPE SITUATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO
COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH THAT A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP AT THIS POINT IS EXPECTED
TO BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH.
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE ROCKIES AND THEN TURN EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS EASTER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE
WISE...COOL/CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN INTRUSION OF CANADIAN AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH IN THE
WAKE OF FRIDAY/S DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
MODELS AGREE THIS COULD BE A RATHER POTENT CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM AND
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE A WARM UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
A STRONG WINTER STORM WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS...WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
...INCLUDING THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z AT KVTN AND 11Z AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...WITH
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR OR SOON AFTER 12Z. AS PRECIPITATION
INTENSITIES AFTER 18Z...VISIBILITIES FORECAST NEAR 1/2 SM SN BLSN
AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. WINDS WILL ALSO BE VERY STRONG NEAR
36029G42KT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 1
AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ006-008-025-026-036-037-
058-059-069-070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004-094.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7
PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005-022>024-035-056-057.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR NEZ007-009-010-027>029-038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR NEZ071.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
240 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY EVENING... THEN CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US TODAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHERLY WIND THAT IS GUSTING TO 20-25KT PRETTY MUCH AS
FORECAST. RAP SOUNDINGS WERE ALL OVER THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL MID-20S BEING
REPORTED...LEADING TO MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 18-22%. WIND GUSTS HAVE
BEEN STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...SO THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS WORKED OUT WELL FROM THE
CRITERION STAND POINT. THE IFD STATEMENT WILL EXPIRE AT 9PM.
A LIGHT 3-6KT WIND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD PREVENT FOG
FROM DEVELOPMENT...WITH NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE
BEST CHANCE OF STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...THOUGH EVEN
THOUGH SATURATION IS NEVER QUITE REALIZED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH HOLDS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL IN
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL SQUELCH ANY
CONVECTION...EVEN THOUGH A COUPLE HI-RES WRFS SHOW ISOLATED ACTIVITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG A SEABREEZE. H10-H85 THICKNESSES ONLY BUMP UP
ABOUT 5M...SO WE SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF TODAYS
HIGHS...74-79.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW SHEARS AND LIFTS THROUGH THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES...A TRAILING COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE SLOWED RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MERGING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT...SUCH THAT AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT IS
COMPLETELY DRY. HAVE CUT BACK LIKELY POPS SIGNIFICANTLY PRIOR TO
06Z..AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH BETWEEN 06Z-12Z GIVEN THE 12Z ECMWF RUN.
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE MOSTLY WEAK BY THE TIME THE FRONT GETS
HERE...WITH THE MAIN DCVA WELL OFF TO THE BOTH AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
(RIGHT ENTRANCE) UPPER JET. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...MOSTLY ELEVATED OWING TO NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION EARLY
IN THE EVENING...SO ANY ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE...WITH
BETTER CHANCES POSSIBLY ON FRIDAY INT HE EAST IF THE SYSTEM IS
INDEED SLOWER. LOWS WILL BE QUITE A BIT MILDER...55-62
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AND EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...BECOMING ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE
PREVAILING FLOW AND STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A TREND FROM LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF PROGRESSIVELY FROM THE WEST TO A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF
I95 BY EARLY (00Z) FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
STRONGEST IN THE EAST WHERE THE TIMING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL LIFT
WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH CAPES APPROACHING 1K JOULES IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON (PRIMARILY DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER
OF 6.5C/KM). LOW LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MINIMAL AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL
NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DELAY OF COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH 70 TO 75 AND EVEN THE NORTHWEST WILL REACH UPPER 60S
DESPITE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THEY WILL SEE CLEARING AND HAVE
SOME TIME TO WARM BEFORE COOL AIR GAINS THE UPPER HAND. LINGERING
CLOUDINESS IN THE EAST WILL CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS RADIATES DOWN INTO THE 40 TO 45 RANGE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA BY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S DUE TO THE EARLY CLOUDINESS AND MIXING TO DELAY THE
DIURNAL CRASH.
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...A PROGRESSIVE HIGH MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR
OVER US ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST ADDS
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE MID TO LATE WEEKEND AS ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST AND SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER
60S...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST. SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA...BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTIVE REGIME AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THIS FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH...BUT LATEST TRENDS ARE FASTER...AND SHOWERS
WOULD BE TAPERING OFF QUICKLY IN THE WEST AND ENDING BY MONDAY
EVENING IN THE EAST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BENEFIT FROM THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND MILD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
BEHIND MONDAYS COLD FRONT. WITH COOL AIR SETTLING IN PLACE...LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY...
UNDER BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING....WITH 20-25KT WIND
GUSTS DIMINISHING BY 00Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...MOSTLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. KFAY MAY BE ONLY TAF SITE TO HAVE A CHANCE AT
STRATUS...AND EVEN THAT CHANCE IS LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT...WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE RESULTING IN A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR VSBYS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NC
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVED ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 335 AM WEDNESDAY...
AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM UNTIL 9 PM...
DRY AIR WILL HOLD IN PLACE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY MOSTLY IN THE 20-
25% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A FEW AREAS IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT HAVE DROPPED TO 10-15%. THIS COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
FROM THE SW AROUND 15 KT GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AND LOW FINE FUEL
MOISTURE (STILL JUST 5-6%) WILL CONTINUE THE ELEVATED RISK FOR
ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...22
FIRE WEATHER...HARTFIELD/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY EVENING... THEN CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS
A LITTLE IN THE PIEDMONT GIVEN THAT VALUES WERE STARTING LOWER THAN
FORECAST AND MIXING IN RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED SOME UPPER 20S WERE
POSSIBLE. RELATING TO THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER HIGHLIGHTED
TODAY...THESE CHANGES STILL KEEP RH VALUES AROUND 20% OR HIGHER.
OTHERWISE...THE DRY FORECAST WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S CONTINUES. -22
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET BUT WARMER... AS THE SW
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PUMPS THICKNESSES UP WELL ABOVE
NORMAL (BY AT LEAST 20-25 M)... WHILE THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALOFT AND RESULTING SUBSIDENCE LIMITS HIGH CLOUDINESS AND MAXIMIZES
HEATING. EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS TODAY...
MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. GIVEN THE INCREASING MSLP GRADIENT
TODAY... BLUSTERY WINDS ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
MIXING THIS MORNING... AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ARE LIKELY. THESE
WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW RH (22-29%) WILL RAISE THE RISK OF
ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). BASED ON THE
ANTICIPATED THICKNESSES... THE WARM SIDE OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS
PREFERRED... AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM 74-78. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE
AREA... LEADING TO FORMATION OF PATCHY SHALLOW STRATUS. WILL
INDICATE SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY... AND IF MODELS AND
OBSERVATIONS LATER TODAY TREND TOWARD GREATER THICKNESS AND
COVERAGE... FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BEEF UP SKY COVER IN THE
HOURS APPROACHING SUNRISE TONIGHT. WITH A LIGHT SW WIND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHT... LOWS WILL BE MILD... 49-55.
THU/THU NIGHT: ANOTHER BREEZY AND GUSTY DAY WITH A CONTINUED TIGHT
MSLP GRADIENT. THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER WILL OPEN
UP BUT REMAIN A POTENT WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THU NIGHT... AND THIS WILL HELP BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE SE COAST WITH GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT... LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS
AND RISING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN HOWEVER IS MARGINAL WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
MULTIPLE LAYERS OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR... AND THE FORCING FOR ASCENT
IS SIMILARLY MUTED WITH ONLY WEAK SHALLOW MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AT BEST... WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED
JET OVER THE MIDATLANTIC REGION... AND MINOR DPVA. MODELS APPEAR TO
REFLECT THESE FACTORS IN THEIR QPF (LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
AREAWIDE AND UNDER A TENTH IN MANY SPOTS) AND PRECIP PATTERNS (QUITE
PATCHY IN NATURE). HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN A BIT BUT KEPT THE SLOW
TREND UP TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS THU NIGHT... ALTHOUGH LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO KNOCK THIS DOWN FURTHER IF THE LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONTINUE TO APPEAR UNIMPRESSIVE. HIGHS 73-79 AND WARM LOWS
OF 54-62 THU NIGHT. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS
PARENT LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED WITH THE GFS
SOLUTIONS GRADUALLY SLOWING THE TIMING...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH
THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS A FEW THINGS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON
FRIDAY. FIRST...LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE
MORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES IN. STILL EXPECT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SECOND...WITH
BETTER DIURNAL TIMING...INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER TO GO
WITH THE 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK SHEAR AVAILABLE. THE HIGHEST CAPE
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THUS THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO UPPER 40S FROM NW TO SE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...SKIES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. LATEST EURO RUN DOES SUGGEST THE EXITING FRONT MAY GET
HELD UP A BIT WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL
WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY TO PURSUE THAT LINE OF THINKING. IN
GENERAL...A NICE DAY ALTHOUGH A BIT COOLER...HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT NEAR 50 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AND EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...BECOMING ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE
PREVAILING FLOW AND STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A TREND FROM LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF PROGRESSIVELY FROM THE WEST TO A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF
I95 BY EARLY (00Z) FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
STRONGEST IN THE EAST WHERE THE TIMING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL LIFT
WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH CAPES APPROACHING 1K JOULES IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON (PRIMARILY DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER
OF 6.5C/KM). LOW LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MINIMAL AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL
NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DELAY OF COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH 70 TO 75 AND EVEN THE NORTHWEST WILL REACH UPPER 60S
DESPITE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THEY WILL SEE CLEARING AND HAVE
SOME TIME TO WARM BEFORE COOL AIR GAINS THE UPPER HAND. LINGERING
CLOUDINESS IN THE EAST WILL CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS RADIATES DOWN INTO THE 40 TO 45 RANGE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA BY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S DUE TO THE EARLY CLOUDINESS AND MIXING TO DELAY THE
DIURNAL CRASH.
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...A PROGRESSIVE HIGH MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR
OVER US ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST ADDS
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE MID TO LATE WEEKEND AS ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST AND SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY MID TO
UPPER60S...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT SOME WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA...BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTIVE REGIME AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THIS FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH...BUT LATEST TRENDS ARE FASTER...AND SHOWERS
WOULD BE TAPERING OFF QUICKLY IN THE WEST AND ENDING BY MONDAY
EVENING IN THE EAST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BENEFIT FROM THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND MILD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
BEHIND MONDAYS COLD FRONT. WITH COOL AIR SETTLING IN PLACE...LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. &&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY...
UNDER BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING....WITH 20-25KT WIND
GUSTS DIMINISHING BY 00Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...MOSTLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. KFAY MAY BE ONLY TAF SITE TO HAVE A CHANCE AT
STRATUS...AND EVEN THAT CHANCE IS LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT...WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE RESULTING IN A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR VSBYS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NC
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVED ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 335 AM WEDNESDAY...
AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 9 AM TO 9
PM... AFTER COORDINATION YESTERDAY WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS. DRY AIR
WILL HOLD IN PLACE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT
20-25%... AND THIS COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE SW AROUND
15 KT GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AND LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE (STILL JUST
5-6%) WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY.
WILL STICK WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HEADLINES IN THE
PRESUPPRESSION FORECAST TO COMMUNICATE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
-GIH/22
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/22
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...22
FIRE WEATHER...HARTFIELD/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
150 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY EVENING... THEN CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS
A LITTLE IN THE PIEDMONT GIVEN THAT VALUES WERE STARTING LOWER THAN
FORECAST AND MIXING IN RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED SOME UPPER 20S WERE
POSSIBLE. RELATING TO THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER HIGHLIGHTED
TODAY...THESE CHANGES STILL KEEP RH VALUES AROUND 20% OR HIGHER.
OTHERWISE...THE DRY FORECAST WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S CONTINUES. -22
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET BUT WARMER... AS THE SW
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PUMPS THICKNESSES UP WELL ABOVE
NORMAL (BY AT LEAST 20-25 M)... WHILE THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALOFT AND RESULTING SUBSIDENCE LIMITS HIGH CLOUDINESS AND MAXIMIZES
HEATING. EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS TODAY...
MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. GIVEN THE INCREASING MSLP GRADIENT
TODAY... BLUSTERY WINDS ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
MIXING THIS MORNING... AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ARE LIKELY. THESE
WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW RH (22-29%) WILL RAISE THE RISK OF
ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). BASED ON THE
ANTICIPATED THICKNESSES... THE WARM SIDE OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS
PREFERRED... AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM 74-78. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE
AREA... LEADING TO FORMATION OF PATCHY SHALLOW STRATUS. WILL
INDICATE SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY... AND IF MODELS AND
OBSERVATIONS LATER TODAY TREND TOWARD GREATER THICKNESS AND
COVERAGE... FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BEEF UP SKY COVER IN THE
HOURS APPROACHING SUNRISE TONIGHT. WITH A LIGHT SW WIND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHT... LOWS WILL BE MILD... 49-55.
THU/THU NIGHT: ANOTHER BREEZY AND GUSTY DAY WITH A CONTINUED TIGHT
MSLP GRADIENT. THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER WILL OPEN
UP BUT REMAIN A POTENT WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THU NIGHT... AND THIS WILL HELP BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE SE COAST WITH GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT... LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS
AND RISING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN HOWEVER IS MARGINAL WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
MULTIPLE LAYERS OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR... AND THE FORCING FOR ASCENT
IS SIMILARLY MUTED WITH ONLY WEAK SHALLOW MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AT BEST... WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED
JET OVER THE MIDATLANTIC REGION... AND MINOR DPVA. MODELS APPEAR TO
REFLECT THESE FACTORS IN THEIR QPF (LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
AREAWIDE AND UNDER A TENTH IN MANY SPOTS) AND PRECIP PATTERNS (QUITE
PATCHY IN NATURE). HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN A BIT BUT KEPT THE SLOW
TREND UP TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS THU NIGHT... ALTHOUGH LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO KNOCK THIS DOWN FURTHER IF THE LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONTINUE TO APPEAR UNIMPRESSIVE. HIGHS 73-79 AND WARM LOWS
OF 54-62 THU NIGHT. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS
PARENT LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED WITH THE GFS
SOLUTIONS GRADUALLY SLOWING THE TIMING...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH
THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS A FEW THINGS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON
FRIDAY. FIRST...LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE
MORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES IN. STILL EXPECT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SECOND...WITH
BETTER DIURNAL TIMING...INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER TO GO
WITH THE 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK SHEAR AVAILABLE. THE HIGHEST CAPE
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THUS THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO UPPER 40S FROM NW TO SE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...SKIES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. LATEST EURO RUN DOES SUGGEST THE EXITING FRONT MAY GET
HELD UP A BIT WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL
WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY TO PURSUE THAT LINE OF THINKING. IN
GENERAL...A NICE DAY ALTHOUGH A BIT COOLER...HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT NEAR 50 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...
WHILE SOLUTIONS IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STILL VERY MUCH
APART ON HOW TO HANDLE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST ON EASTER
SUNDAY...THE UPSHOT FOR CENTRAL NC IS THE SAME...ALTHOUGH FOR
DIFFERENT REASONS. FOR NOW...BOTH MODELS KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY ON
EASTER UNTIL LATE SUNDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW...HOWEVER THIS IS
ENCOURAGING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY EASTER WILL BE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM. IF THE
FORECAST BUSTS...THE TRIAD AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES ARE MOST LIKELY
TO GET PRECIPITATION FIRST. GOING WITH THE DRIER FORECAST WILL GO
WITH A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN COMING IN
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWS ONLY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
BOTH MODELS SHOW BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS PRE-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION AFFECTS THE AREA. THE REAL DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS
THAT IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY IS VERY PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND AND IT
BRINGS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN PRECIPITATION WITH IT TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE LOW IN THE GFS HANGS BACK OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BECOMES DISCONNECTED FROM THE INITIAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTH AND THE
WHOLE SYSTEM MEANDERS AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE LOW FINALLY
MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE EC SOLUTION ON THE
OTHER HAND HAS CENTRAL NC DRY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH BIG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA GOING INTO MIDWEEK. HAVE HEDGED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
THE EC SOLUTION FOR MIDWEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHICH SOLUTION PROVES CORRECT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY...
UNDER BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING....WITH 20-25KT WIND
GUSTS DIMINISHING BY 00Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...MOSTLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. KFAY MAY BE ONLY TAF SITE TO HAVE A CHANCE AT
STRATUS...AND EVEN THAT CHANCE IS LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT...WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE RESULTING IN A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR VSBYS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NC
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVED ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 335 AM WEDNESDAY...
AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 9 AM TO 9
PM... AFTER COORDINATION YESTERDAY WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS. DRY AIR
WILL HOLD IN PLACE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT
20-25%... AND THIS COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE SW AROUND
15 KT GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AND LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE (STILL JUST
5-6%) WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY.
WILL STICK WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HEADLINES IN THE
PRESUPPRESSION FORECAST TO COMMUNICATE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
-GIH/22
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/22
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...22
FIRE WEATHER...HARTFIELD/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1100 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY EVENING... THEN CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS
A LITTLE IN THE PIEDMONT GIVEN THAT VALUES WERE STARTING LOWER THAN
FORECAST AND MIXING IN RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED SOME UPPER 20S WERE
POSSIBLE. RELATING TO THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER HIGHLIGHTED
TODAY...THESE CHANGES STILL KEEP RH VALUES AROUND 20% OR HIGHER.
OTHERWISE...THE DRY FORECAST WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S CONTINUES. -22
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET BUT WARMER... AS THE SW
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PUMPS THICKNESSES UP WELL ABOVE
NORMAL (BY AT LEAST 20-25 M)... WHILE THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALOFT AND RESULTING SUBSIDENCE LIMITS HIGH CLOUDINESS AND MAXIMIZES
HEATING. EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS TODAY...
MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. GIVEN THE INCREASING MSLP GRADIENT
TODAY... BLUSTERY WINDS ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
MIXING THIS MORNING... AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ARE LIKELY. THESE
WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW RH (22-29%) WILL RAISE THE RISK OF
ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). BASED ON THE
ANTICIPATED THICKNESSES... THE WARM SIDE OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS
PREFERRED... AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM 74-78. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE
AREA... LEADING TO FORMATION OF PATCHY SHALLOW STRATUS. WILL
INDICATE SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY... AND IF MODELS AND
OBSERVATIONS LATER TODAY TREND TOWARD GREATER THICKNESS AND
COVERAGE... FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BEEF UP SKY COVER IN THE
HOURS APPROACHING SUNRISE TONIGHT. WITH A LIGHT SW WIND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHT... LOWS WILL BE MILD... 49-55.
THU/THU NIGHT: ANOTHER BREEZY AND GUSTY DAY WITH A CONTINUED TIGHT
MSLP GRADIENT. THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER WILL OPEN
UP BUT REMAIN A POTENT WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THU NIGHT... AND THIS WILL HELP BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE SE COAST WITH GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT... LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS
AND RISING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN HOWEVER IS MARGINAL WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
MULTIPLE LAYERS OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR... AND THE FORCING FOR ASCENT
IS SIMILARLY MUTED WITH ONLY WEAK SHALLOW MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AT BEST... WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED
JET OVER THE MIDATLANTIC REGION... AND MINOR DPVA. MODELS APPEAR TO
REFLECT THESE FACTORS IN THEIR QPF (LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
AREAWIDE AND UNDER A TENTH IN MANY SPOTS) AND PRECIP PATTERNS (QUITE
PATCHY IN NATURE). HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN A BIT BUT KEPT THE SLOW
TREND UP TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS THU NIGHT... ALTHOUGH LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO KNOCK THIS DOWN FURTHER IF THE LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONTINUE TO APPEAR UNIMPRESSIVE. HIGHS 73-79 AND WARM LOWS
OF 54-62 THU NIGHT. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS
PARENT LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED WITH THE GFS
SOLUTIONS GRADUALLY SLOWING THE TIMING...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH
THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS A FEW THINGS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON
FRIDAY. FIRST...LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE
MORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES IN. STILL EXPECT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SECOND...WITH
BETTER DIURNAL TIMING...INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER TO GO
WITH THE 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK SHEAR AVAILABLE. THE HIGHEST CAPE
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THUS THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO UPPER 40S FROM NW TO SE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...SKIES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. LATEST EURO RUN DOES SUGGEST THE EXITING FRONT MAY GET
HELD UP A BIT WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL
WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY TO PURSUE THAT LINE OF THINKING. IN
GENERAL...A NICE DAY ALTHOUGH A BIT COOLER...HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT NEAR 50 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...
WHILE SOLUTIONS IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STILL VERY MUCH
APART ON HOW TO HANDLE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST ON EASTER
SUNDAY...THE UPSHOT FOR CENTRAL NC IS THE SAME...ALTHOUGH FOR
DIFFERENT REASONS. FOR NOW...BOTH MODELS KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY ON
EASTER UNTIL LATE SUNDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW...HOWEVER THIS IS
ENCOURAGING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY EASTER WILL BE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM. IF THE
FORECAST BUSTS...THE TRIAD AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES ARE MOST LIKELY
TO GET PRECIPITATION FIRST. GOING WITH THE DRIER FORECAST WILL GO
WITH A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN COMING IN
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWS ONLY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
BOTH MODELS SHOW BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS PRE-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION AFFECTS THE AREA. THE REAL DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS
THAT IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY IS VERY PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND AND IT
BRINGS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN PRECIPITATION WITH IT TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE LOW IN THE GFS HANGS BACK OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BECOMES DISCONNECTED FROM THE INITIAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTH AND THE
WHOLE SYSTEM MEANDERS AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE LOW FINALLY
MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE EC SOLUTION ON THE
OTHER HAND HAS CENTRAL NC DRY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH BIG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA GOING INTO MIDWEEK. HAVE HEDGED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
THE EC SOLUTION FOR MIDWEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHICH SOLUTION PROVES CORRECT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 820 AM WEDNESDAY...
UNDER BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...MOSTLY
AFTER 08Z.
OUTLOOK... THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS INCREASES LATE THU AND
ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH A RISING RISK OF SHOWERS. CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE NW... BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS SRN NC WITH DISTURBANCES
ALOFT TRACKING SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION. -GIH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 335 AM WEDNESDAY...
AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 9 AM TO 9
PM... AFTER COORDINATION YESTERDAY WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS. DRY AIR
WILL HOLD IN PLACE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT
20-25%... AND THIS COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE SW AROUND
15 KT GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AND LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE (STILL JUST
5-6%) WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY.
WILL STICK WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HEADLINES IN THE
PRESUPPRESSION FORECAST TO COMMUNICATE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
-GIH/22
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/22
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD/22
FIRE WEATHER...HARTFIELD/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
945 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT SO
FAR OBS SITES AND WEB CAMS SHOW NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND.
BETTER RETURNS TO THE WEST NORTH OF MINOT...AND PERSONAL WEATHER
STATIONS SHOW SOME PRECIP GETTING TO THE GROUND. HRRR HAS
ACCUMULATING PRECIP ENTERING THE FAR NORTHWEST AROUND 05Z...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL KEEP THE POPS COMING IN MOSTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER ON
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL THINK WE SHOULD SEE SOME NICE DROPS WITH
CLEAR SKIES BEFORE CLOUDS COMING IN FOR THE EAST AND WITH THE COLD
FRONT COMING INTO THE NORTHWEST. WILL KEEP OUR LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
NO CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH
MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON SKIES WERE STILL
MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FA WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE. STILL
HAVE SOME SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS OVER NORTHWEST MN. GOOD WESTERLY
SFC FLOW OVER WESTERN ND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC LOW...WHERE TEMPS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 50S. THE SFC LOW IS OVER SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY
12 FRI. A BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM THIS LOW WHICH WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS UP INTO NORTHWEST MN BY 12Z FRI...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE KDVL
REGION INTO NW MN. THIS PCPN WOULD GENERALLY FALL AS SNOW WITH A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY MORNING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD ON
FRI...ENDING UP BY 00Z SAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL AGAIN OCCUR ALONG/BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...SO
THEY WILL SINK FROM AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO A VALLEY
CITY TO FARGO TO KPKD LINE BY 00Z SAT. TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH
DURING THE DAY FRI TO CHANGE THIS PCPN FROM LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PCPN...OVER TO LIGHT RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE EXPECTED PCPN
FROM THE EVENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRI (EXCEPTING THE FAR
SOUTH AND SE FA)...WHICH WILL THEREFORE LIMIT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. COULD BE A LITTLE WINDY ON FRI AFTERNOON AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS TEMPS FALL FRI
NIGHT THE PCPN WILL CHANGE BACK TO A MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. AN INCH OR
SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER IN SAT MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL MN...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. HIGHS LOOK COOL ON SAT BUT THEY DO WARM UP A LITTLE MORE
BY SUNDAY. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SFC LOW AND A LITTLE
LIGHT PCPN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH SOME INCONSISTENCY ON THIS WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
BUILD AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY WILL RETROGRADE INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO AS SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA AND
INTO ONTARIO. SPLIT FLOW WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH
NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES.
THE GFS WAS A FASTER AND A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF.
WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MON THROUGH THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
ALL SITES VFR AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST THIS EVENING. BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGING SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS. SOME SNOW WILL BE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN AS THE FRONT DIGS
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS KFAR LATER IN THE DAY. AT THIS POINT MAINLY
INCLUDED VCSH MENTION...BUT AT KGFK AND KTVF INCLUDED SOME -SN AND
3-5SM VIS...AS GUIDANCE DROPS VIS PRETTY LOW AS THE HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS COME THROUGH. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT INDICATED AN
OVERALL DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN SWITCH DIRECTIONS AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW COULD BECOME STRONG AT
TIMES IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
332 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THURSDAY FOR SOME POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
CURRENTLY...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MANITOBA...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE LOW CENTER. THIS DRY AIR CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...ERODING THE CLOUD COVER FROM EAST TO WEST. THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE REMAINS UNDER SOME STRATUS AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS. MEANWHILE A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...RAIN...AND SNOW
FROM COLORADO TO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR INDICATE THE CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES WESTWARD.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THE CENTRAL PLAINS STORM CENTER MOVES
EAST...THEN NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS INTERRUPTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY. THIS SHORT-LIVED DRYING OF THE LOW/MID
LAYERS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR A MIX-OUT SURFACE-TO-H800. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS WELL. THUS USED A BLEND OF
SHORT TERM AND BCCONSMOS FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND WESTERN
DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA...WITH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHERN
CANADA...AND WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER WYOMING. A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT WARM AIR ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH
COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE TO RESULT IN CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR A
BRIEF HOUR OR TWO POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND
INTERSTATE 94 BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON ON FRIDAY...WITH COLD ADVECTION ALREADY TAKING
PLACE OVER NORTHERN AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN FRIDAY WITH HIGH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND
LIGHT RAIN SOUTH. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING
THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO 1 INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
IN SUMMARY...CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN NORTH CENTRAL LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL...BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING A STORM
SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT THE LATEST 12Z RUNS ARE SHOWING A
POSSIBLE TREND TOWARD BETTER AGREEMENT. THE STORM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE WEST COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY/TUESDAY...AND EXPANDING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE CONUS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS BEEN BULLISH ON DEVELOPING
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM REACHING WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT
WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF IS
NOW DEPICTING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
LOW THAT IN TURN DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN A REASONABLY SIMILAR
PLACE IN THE MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT KDIK AND KISN ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT KJMS AND CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KBIS AND KMOT. NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFT 00Z AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...EXITING EASTERN PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 18Z
THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1107 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A
FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE MORE SPUNKY AS THEY MOVE INTO A
FAVORABLE 45 KT 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR REGION...HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
LOW TOPS AND LACK OF LIGHTNING...THE HODOGRAPHS IN THIS AREA ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK
ROTATION...BUT SO FAR DO NOT THINK ENOUGH CAPE TO WARRANT ANY
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. SOME OF THE GUSTS FROM THESE SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN IMPRESSIVE IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN FOCUS FOR NEAR TERM FORECAST IS COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ONLY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS...AND CAPE IS MINIMAL. THE
NAM WHICH OFTEN RUNS HIGH ON CAPE IS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 300J/KG
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND HAS MOST OF THAT BEHIND
THIS FIRST LINE -- CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. DID KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTIONED BUT NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THIS FAR EAST. WITH DECENT FLOW IN
PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
CELLS. PWATS POOL UP TO AROUND 1.25IN WITH THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND
AS WELL...SO BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
TRIED TO SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND AND THE
SECONDARY BAND WITH THE COLD FRONT...PWATS SHOWING THIS AS WELL
WITH A QUICK DIP UNDER 1.0IN BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING UNTIL THIS
SECONDARY BAND PASSES...BUT WITH THIS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT
TIMING IS NOT IDEAL.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND LINGERS
THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE WISE...HELD TEMPS UP TONIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES USING A CONSENSUS BLEND...AND THE HRRR AS FAR OUT AS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DOMINATING FEATURE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR MOVES IN...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT GETS
PUSHED SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN DURING SATURDAY ON SOUTHEAST
FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT EAST FACING SLOPES OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
HOWEVER NO PRECIP WITH THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL
SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SATURDAY.
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE SATURDAY...LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN ON
THE EAST FACING SLOPES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARMER DESPITE THE
CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT OUT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY AND MILDER NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM COMES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE
SUNDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE DIVERGENT ON THE
STRENGTH...TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW COMING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. THE EURO MODEL IS MORE WRAPPED UP AND
MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE
OPEN AND FASTER. WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOWN BY THE
MODELS...THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND FASTER SOLUTION OF THE MAJORITY OF
THE MODELS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THUS...USING GFS AS A
GUIDE. I HAVE CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY DAYS END.
STILL...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY FLOW TO REACH INTO THE
70S MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN LOW LANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE...WITH COOLER...AND
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND TOWARDS MID WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...GENERATING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. KEPT THINGS MVFR
WITH THE PRECIP...BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
IN LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE/FOG.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND NOT AS STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT AND INTO FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CAT MY GO IFR OR LOWER THAN
FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 03/25/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M L L L L M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JW/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
752 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR NEAR TERM FORECAST IS COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ONLY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS...AND CAPE IS MINIMAL.
THE NAM WHICH OFTEN RUNS HIGH ON CAPE IS STRUGGLING TO BREAK
300J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND HAS MOST OF THAT
BEHIND THIS FIRST LINE -- CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. DID KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED BUT NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THIS FAR EAST. WITH DECENT FLOW IN
PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
CELLS. PWATS POOL UP TO AROUND 1.25IN WITH THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND
AS WELL...SO BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
TRIED TO SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND AND THE
SECONDARY BAND WITH THE COLD FRONT...PWATS SHOWING THIS AS WELL
WITH A QUICK DIP UNDER 1.0IN BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING UNTIL THIS
SECONDARY BAND PASSES...BUT WITH THIS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT
TIMING IS NOT IDEAL.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND LINGERS
THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE WISE...HELD TEMPS UP TONIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES USING A CONSENSUS BLEND...AND THE HRRR AS FAR OUT AS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DOMINATING FEATURE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR MOVES IN...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT GETS
PUSHED SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN DURING SATURDAY ON SOUTHEAST
FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT EAST FACING SLOPES OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
HOWEVER NO PRECIP WITH THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL
SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SATURDAY.
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE SATURDAY...LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN ON
THE EAST FACING SLOPES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARMER DESPITE THE
CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT OUT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY AND MILDER NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM COMES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE
SUNDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE DIVERGENT ON THE
STRENGTH...TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW COMING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. THE EURO MODEL IS MORE WRAPPED UP AND
MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE
OPEN AND FASTER. WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOWN BY THE
MODELS...THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND FASTER SOLUTION OF THE MAJORITY OF
THE MODELS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THUS...USING GFS AS A
GUIDE. I HAVE CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY DAYS END.
STILL...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY FLOW TO REACH INTO THE
70S MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN LOW LANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE...WITH COOLER...AND
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND TOWARDS MID WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...GENERATING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...WILL DRIVE
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE WEST. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE SECOND
WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. KEPT THINGS MVFR WITH THE PRECIP...BUT
COULD HAVE BRIEF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH MVFR IN LOW STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE/FOG.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND NOT AS STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT AND INTO FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CAT MY GO IFR OR LOWER THAN
FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 03/25/16
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H M M M M M M L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
941 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED DEWPOINTS SOME BASED ON HRRR AND WRFARW.
THIS LOWERED DEWPOINTS/RH SOME OVER SW VA SO SENT OUT A FIRE
WEATHER DANGER STATEMENT FOR BUCHANAN AND DICKENSON. MODELS SHOW
DEWPOINTS COMING UP FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THUS
RH VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE AREA REMAINS
UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS REACHES SOUTHEAST OH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
WV THIS AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE SECTION AT THE BOTTOM.
WENT CLOSER TO THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY COURTESY OF A POTENT UPPER TROF AND ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL MARCH THRU THURSDAY EVENING WITH SHRA/TSRA
INCREASING FROM W TO E AS THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES.
IT APPEARS A DECAYING PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CROSS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT LAGGING 3 TO 6 HR BEHIND...WAITING
UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING TO CROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOSE DIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG CAA SETS ON GUSTY W WINDS. SCT SHRA
OVER SE OH AND N WV WILL TRANSITION TO SHSN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
BY 12Z FRIDAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN CAA BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL MEAN AN ABUNDANCE OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER W ZONES. WAA QUICKLY SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ON
DEVELOPING SW FLOW ALOFT...KEEPING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO CRACK 70 E OF THE OH
RIVER WITH 60S OVER SE OH. ONCE THE FRONT BLOWS
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN THRU THE 30S. WITH THE
EXPECTED STRATOCU AROUND ON FRIDAY...HEDGED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. WAA ALOFT SETTING UP FRIDAY NIGHT MEANS
A RISE IN TEMPS ON THE HIGH RIDGETOPS WITH EVERYONE ELSE DROPPING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE COOL FRIDAY WILL BE BUT
A MEMORY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SYSTEM NOW BACK IN THE
SHORT TERM...AND THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY...BUT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRI NT FOR A FROSTY SAT MORNING...BUT A DRY
START TO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY SUNDAY NT...AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING AWAY MON AND MON
NT...BUT IN DIFFERENT WAYS...THE GFS WITH A MUCH FARTHER S TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. EITHER WAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON TUE.
PREVIOUS LOWS LOOKED GOOD IN RELATION TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR
A FROSTY SAT MORNING. BLENDED IN THE SUPERBLEND AND NATIONAL BLEND
FOR LOWS SAT NT...STILL FOR NOT MUCH CHANGE. RAISED LOWS A BIT
SUNDAY NT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH...VIA BLENDING IN
THE GFS AND NATIONAL BLEND...WITH COLD ADVECTION COMMENCING LATE.
LOWS MON NT LOOKED GOOD. THE RAIN SHOWERS MAY END AS SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS EARLY TUE MORNING UNLESS DRY AIR WINS THE
RACE VS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. USED THE SUPER
BLEND FOR LOWS DAY 7 NT.
FOR THE MOST PART...BLENDED IN THE SUPER BLEND FOR HIGHS...TAKING
VALUES UP...ESPECIALLY SAT...WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME
WELL MIXED IN RETURN S FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AMPLE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE OH VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY
AND THEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS OR STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WINDS COULD GUST A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
IN SHOWERS AND STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY DAY...WITH DRY FUEL MOISTURE AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY POSE A THREAT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL INCREASE UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL PROVIDING LOW RH. WINDS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL NEED AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER DANGER STATEMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN/THUNDER BY LATE WEEK
WILL ABATE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/WIND/PRECIP FORECAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AS THE
DRYLINE QUICKLY MIXES TO THE EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE IS
EVEN DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...SO OPTED TO DROP DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THESE DEWPOINTS MAY NEED BE DROPPED EVEN
FURTHER DUE TO DEEP MIXING THAT IS NOT HANDLED WELL BY MODELS.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO INCREASED BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
CONSEQUENTLY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE EVEN
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN
4-5 PM. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 55-65 KNOTS WITH
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.
MAHALE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/
DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLOWING DUST COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT
SOME TAF SITES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCTION TO BELOW
ONE MILE BUT DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF THIS LOW IN TAFS FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/
DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST.
AVIATION...
THERE IS PATCHY STRATUS AFFECTING KOKC.. KOUN AND KLAW THIS
MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
IN THESE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING... BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH BLOWING DUST THANKS TO THE STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE
DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE... THE STRONG WINDS THEMSELVES AND
WIND SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
ISSUES EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/
DISCUSSION...
WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HIGH TODAY. DRYLINE IS
MIXING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINT
DROPPING 6 DEGREES AT CANADIAN TEXAS IN THE LAST HOUR. THE DRYLINE
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA SOON WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND
HUMIDITY. AS USUAL... NAM DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WAY TOO
HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TRENDED STRONGLY TO THE MUCH DRIER
ECMWF... RAP AND HRRR SOLUTIONS IN THE DEWPOINT GRIDS. THESE
DEWPOINT FORECASTS BRING THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. PLACEMENT OF THE RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD AND
WILL KEEP THAT GEOGRAPHY AS IS WITH THIS PACKAGE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL
COMPLICATE ANY FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS ON ANY WILDFIRES THAT DEVELOP.
WIND WILL ALSO BE A BIG ISSUE...EVEN MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY. WITH
DEEP MIXING IN THE DRY AIR... WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO APPROACH HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA AND WILL UPGRADE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD
AND WILL KEEP THAT IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS AND/OR TIMES THAT THE
HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT. THE WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW... BUT WILL KEEP THE
WIND ADVISORY VALID UNTIL 12Z FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 38 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 77 37 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 84 41 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 69 30 60 34 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 78 35 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 80 43 61 39 / 30 30 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>019-
021>024-033>038.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>042-
044>046-050.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
OKZ004>019-021>024-033>038.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ020-025>032-039>048-
050>052.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
TXZ083>085-087.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ086-088>090.
&&
$$
10/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLOWING DUST COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT
SOME TAF SITES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCTION TO BELOW
ONE MILE BUT DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF THIS LOW IN TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/
DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST.
AVIATION...
THERE IS PATCHY STRATUS AFFECTING KOKC.. KOUN AND KLAW THIS
MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
IN THESE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING... BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH BLOWING DUST THANKS TO THE STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE
DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE... THE STRONG WINDS THEMSELVES AND
WIND SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
ISSUES EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/
DISCUSSION...
WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HIGH TODAY. DRYLINE IS
MIXING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINT
DROPPING 6 DEGREES AT CANADIAN TEXAS IN THE LAST HOUR. THE DRYLINE
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA SOON WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND
HUMIDITY. AS USUAL... NAM DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WAY TOO
HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TRENDED STRONGLY TO THE MUCH DRIER
ECMWF... RAP AND HRRR SOLUTIONS IN THE DEWPOINT GRIDS. THESE
DEWPOINT FORECASTS BRING THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. PLACEMENT OF THE RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD AND
WILL KEEP THAT GEOGRAPHY AS IS WITH THIS PACKAGE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL
COMPLICATE ANY FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS ON ANY WILDFIRES THAT DEVELOP.
WIND WILL ALSO BE A BIG ISSUE...EVEN MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY. WITH
DEEP MIXING IN THE DRY AIR... WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO APPROACH HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA AND WILL UPGRADE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD
AND WILL KEEP THAT IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS AND/OR TIMES THAT THE
HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT. THE WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW... BUT WILL KEEP THE
WIND ADVISORY VALID UNTIL 12Z FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 38 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 77 37 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 84 41 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 69 30 60 34 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 78 35 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 80 43 61 39 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>019-
021>024-033>038.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>042-
044>046-050.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
OKZ004>019-021>024-033>038.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ020-025>032-039>048-
050>052.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
TXZ083>085-087.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ086-088>090.
&&
$$
10/25/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
744 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE IS PATCHY STRATUS AFFECTING KOKC.. KOUN AND KLAW THIS
MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
IN THESE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING... BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH BLOWING DUST THANKS TO THE STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE
DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE... THE STRONG WINDS THEMSELVES AND
WIND SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
ISSUES EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/
DISCUSSION...
WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HIGH TODAY. DRYLINE IS
MIXING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINT
DROPPING 6 DEGREES AT CANADIAN TEXAS IN THE LAST HOUR. THE DRYLINE
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA SOON WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND
HUMIDITY. AS USUAL... NAM DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WAY TOO
HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TRENDED STRONGLY TO THE MUCH DRIER
ECMWF... RAP AND HRRR SOLUTIONS IN THE DEWPOINT GRIDS. THESE
DEWPOINT FORECASTS BRING THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. PLACEMENT OF THE RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD AND
WILL KEEP THAT GEOGRAPHY AS IS WITH THIS PACKAGE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL
COMPLICATE ANY FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS ON ANY WILDFIRES THAT DEVELOP.
WIND WILL ALSO BE A BIG ISSUE...EVEN MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY. WITH
DEEP MIXING IN THE DRY AIR... WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO APPROACH HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA AND WILL UPGRADE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD
AND WILL KEEP THAT IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS AND/OR TIMES THAT THE
HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT. THE WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW... BUT WILL KEEP THE
WIND ADVISORY VALID UNTIL 12Z FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 38 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 77 37 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 84 41 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 69 30 60 34 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 78 35 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 80 43 61 39 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004>019-021>024-033>038.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004>042-044>046-050.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ004>019-
021>024-033>038.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
OKZ004>019-021>024-033>038.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ020-025>032-039>048-
050>052.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>085-087.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
TXZ083>085-087.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ086-088>090.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
430 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.DISCUSSION...
WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HIGH TODAY. DRYLINE IS
MIXING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINT
DROPPING 6 DEGREES AT CANADIAN TEXAS IN THE LAST HOUR. THE DRYLINE
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA SOON WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND
HUMIDITY. AS USUAL... NAM DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WAY TOO
HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TRENDED STRONGLY TO THE MUCH DRIER
ECMWF... RAP AND HRRR SOLUTIONS IN THE DEWPOINT GRIDS. THESE
DEWPOINT FORECASTS BRING THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. PLACEMENT OF THE RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD AND
WILL KEEP THAT GEOGRAPHY AS IS WITH THIS PACKAGE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL
COMPLICATE ANY FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS ON ANY WILDFIRES THAT DEVELOP.
WIND WILL ALSO BE A BIG ISSUE...EVEN MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY. WITH
DEEP MIXING IN THE DRY AIR... WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO APPROACH HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA AND WILL UPGRADE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD
AND WILL KEEP THAT IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS AND/OR TIMES THAT THE
HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT. THE WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW... BUT WILL KEEP THE
WIND ADVISORY VALID UNTIL 12Z FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 38 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 77 37 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 84 41 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 69 30 60 34 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 78 35 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 80 43 61 39 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004>019-021>024-033>038.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004>042-044>046-050.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ004>019-
021>024-033>038.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
OKZ004>019-021>024-033>038.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ020-025>032-039>048-
050>052.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>085-087.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
TXZ083>085-087.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ086-088>090.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1012 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE
STATE...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH EAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM NRN MD
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL PA IN THE MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER SW
FLOW...AND WLY FLOW ALOFT. STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
NEARLY EAST/WEST FROM NEAR CYXU...TO KIAG AND KSYR WITH BKN-OVC
AND MUCH LOWER CIGS WELL NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY MOVES TO SRN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING NW TO NORTHERLY LLVL AGEOS FLOW
NUDGE THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE NY/PA BORDER BY TONIGHT...,KEEPING
LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA OVER MY FAR NORTHERN TIER.
VERTICAL MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 4-5 KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON /AND
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY/ WILL BRING WSW WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH
TO THE BALMY UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MAINLY CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS OF PENN. LOWS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BUT
COULD STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER INVOF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ IN EXCESS OF 50KTS WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF A POTENT
COLD FRONT. CHC FOR SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A TSRA OR TWO/ RAMPS UP
QUICKLY VERY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UVVEL BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF AN APPROACHING
110 KT UPPER JET AND WITHIN THE AXIS OF +2-3 SIGMA PWATS. ANY TSRA
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AOA DUSK THURSDAY...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/JG OF SFC BASED CAPE MOVES OVER THE MTNS OF WRN
PENN...THEN STRUGGLES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATER
AT NIGHT.
TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE NRN
TIER...AND U60S TO L70S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE VERY MILD/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY
WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEEKEND STILL APPEARS IN STORE FOR EASTER WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY WILL DEAMPLIFY
AS IT REACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 25/12Z. RAIN WITH A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING YESTERDAY...AND STILL
FAVORING A MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION IN HANDLING THE DISTINCT -- BUT
NARROWING -- MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER/NORTHERN
GFS/GEFS CAMP AND SLOWER/SOUTHWEST EC/ECENS. FROM WPC PMDHMD...THE
FRONTAL TIMING AND SFC LOW SPEED/TRACK DIFFERENCES APPEAR TIED TO
SOME NORTHERN STEAM SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION USED AGAIN TO MITIGATE
THE DIFFERENCES STILL RESULTS IN MAX POPS IN THE 00-12Z FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. 24HR RAIN TOTALS ENDING 12Z FRI RANGE FROM 0.50-1.00
INCH OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE AREA TO 0.25-0.50 INCHES TO THE EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
SOME SEASONABLY COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT
VIA GUSTY NW FLOW ON FRIDAY...WITH PCPN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NW MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE INTERIOR MID ATLC/NORTHEAST STATES
FRI NGT/SATURDAY BEFORE TAKING UP RESIDENCE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING MILDER RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL SPELL A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER
WEEKEND.
THE FASTER GFS CAMP STILL WANTS TO END EASTER WEEKEND ON A WET
NOTE...RETURNING PCPN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
ECMWF. THAT SAID...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND STAYS
DRY. LITTLE CHANGE HERE AGAIN TO PREVIOUS THINKING TOWARD A MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD APPROACH TO PCPN CHANCES INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A
CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULDS SLIP INTO THE NW MTNS ALONG WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AT KBFD. BREEZY CONDS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WITH SFC WNDS G25 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT MANY AIRFIELDS
THIS AFTERNOON.
CIG RESTRICTIONS BEGIN TO WORK INTO NW MTNS VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THU ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY THU...WITH SOME THUNDER POSS LATE THU AFT IN THE
WEST. LLWS LIKELY THU NIGHT WITH FROPA.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NW
MTNS...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY NW HALF...MAINLY VFR WITH
LOCAL RESTRICTIONS ELSEWHERE. SOME THUNDER POSS WEST LATE THU.
BECOMING BREEZY WITH LLWS POSS THU NIGHT.
FRI...SHOWERS DIMINISHING. RESTRICTIONS EARLY THEN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SE. RESTRICTIONS PERSIST NW.
SAT...VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
742 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE
STATE...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH EAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST FROM NEAR
CYXU...TO KIAG AND KSYR.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SHIELD OF ALTOCU AND ALTOSTRATUS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN TODAY...WHILE VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS AND SCT-BKN ALTO CU DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
08Z HRRR AND THE REST OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND 03Z SREF
ALL SHOW JUST A VERY LOW PROB OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO BRUSHING
THE AREA NORTH OF RT 6 TODAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS
DRY.
THE WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING NW TO NORTHERLY LLVL AGEOS FLOW WILL HELP TO NUDGE THE
VERY SHALLOW BUT SHARP BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL /OR MORE LIKELY NRN/
PENN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
VERTICAL MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 4-5 KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON /AND
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY/ WILL BRING WSW WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH
TO THE BALMY UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MAINLY CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS OF PENN. LOWS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BUT
COULD STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER INVOF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ IN EXCESS OF 50KTS WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF A POTENT
COLD FRONT. CHC FOR SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A TSRA OR TWO/ RAMPS UP
QUICKLY VERY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UVVEL BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF AN APPROACHING
110 KT UPPER JET AND WITHIN THE AXIS OF +2-3 SIGMA PWATS. ANY TSRA
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AOA DUSK THURSDAY...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/JG OF SFC BASED CAPE MOVES OVER THE MTNS OF WRN
PENN...THEN STRUGGLES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATER
AT NIGHT.
TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE NRN
TIER...AND U60S TO L70S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE VERY MILD/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY
WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEEKEND STILL APPEARS IN STORE FOR EASTER WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY WILL DEAMPLIFY
AS IT REACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 25/12Z. RAIN WITH A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING YESTERDAY...AND STILL
FAVORING A MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION IN HANDLING THE DISTINCT -- BUT
NARROWING -- MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER/NORTHERN
GFS/GEFS CAMP AND SLOWER/SOUTHWEST EC/ECENS. FROM WPC PMDHMD...THE
FRONTAL TIMING AND SFC LOW SPEED/TRACK DIFFERENCES APPEAR TIED TO
SOME NORTHERN STEAM SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION USED AGAIN TO MITIGATE
THE DIFFERENCES STILL RESULTS IN MAX POPS IN THE 00-12Z FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. 24HR RAIN TOTALS ENDING 12Z FRI RANGE FROM 0.50-1.00
INCH OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE AREA TO 0.25-0.50 INCHES TO THE EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
SOME SEASONABLY COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT
VIA GUSTY NW FLOW ON FRIDAY...WITH PCPN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NW MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE INTERIOR MID ATLC/NORTHEAST STATES
FRI NGT/SATURDAY BEFORE TAKING UP RESIDENCE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING MILDER RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL SPELL A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER
WEEKEND.
THE FASTER GFS CAMP STILL WANTS TO END EASTER WEEKEND ON A WET
NOTE...RETURNING PCPN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
ECMWF. THAT SAID...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND STAYS
DRY. LITTLE CHANGE HERE AGAIN TO PREVIOUS THINKING TOWARD A MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD APPROACH TO PCPN CHANCES INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CORE OF WESTERLY 35-50KT LLJET CREATING AREAS OF LLWS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD EARLY TODAY. SURFACE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WEST /ESP HIGHER ELEVATIONS/ WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ESP
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AT KBFD-KJST. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS
COULDS SLIP INTO THE NW MTNS ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
AT KBFD.
CIG RESTRICTIONS BEGIN TO WORK INTO NW MTNS VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THU ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY THU...WITH SOME THUNDER POSS LATE THU AFT IN THE
WEST. LLWS LIKELY THU NIGHT WITH FROPA.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NW
MTNS...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY NW HALF...MAINLY VFR WITH
LOCAL RESTRICTIONS ELSEWHERE. SOME THUNDER POSS WEST LATE THU.
BECOMING BREEZY WITH LLWS POSS THU NIGHT.
FRI...SHOWERS DIMINISHING. RESTRICTIONS EARLY THEN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SE. RESTRICTIONS PERSIST NW.
SAT...VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
527 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE
STATE...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH EAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST FROM NEAR
CYXU...TO KIAG AND KSYR.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SHIELD OF ALTOCU AND ALTOSTRATUS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN TODAY...WHILE VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS AND SCT-BKN ALTO CU DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
08Z HRRR AND THE REST OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND 03Z SREF
ALL SHOW JUST A VERY LOW PROB OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO BRUSHING
THE AREA NORTH OF RT 6 TODAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS
DRY.
THE WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING NW TO NORTHERLY LLVL AGEOS FLOW WILL HELP TO NUDGE THE
VERY SHALLOW BUT SHARP BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL /OR MORE LIKELY NRN/
PENN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
VERTICAL MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 4-5 KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON /AND
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY/ WILL BRING WSW WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH
TO THE BALMY UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MAINLY CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS OF PENN. LOWS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BUT
COULD STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER INVOF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ IN EXCESS OF 50KTS WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF A POTENT
COLD FRONT. CHC FOR SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A TSRA OR TWO/ RAMPS UP
QUICKLY VERY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UVVEL BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF AN APPROACHING
110 KT UPPER JET AND WITHIN THE AXIS OF +2-3 SIGMA PWATS. ANY TSRA
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AOA DUSK THURSDAY...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/JG OF SFC BASED CAPE MOVES OVER THE MTNS OF WRN
PENN...THEN STRUGGLES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATER
AT NIGHT.
TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE NRN
TIER...AND U60S TO L70S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE VERY MILD/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY
WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEEKEND STILL APPEARS IN STORE FOR EASTER WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY WILL DEAMPLIFY
AS IT REACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 25/12Z. RAIN WITH A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING YESTERDAY...AND STILL
FAVORING A MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION IN HANDLING THE DISTINCT -- BUT
NARROWING -- MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER/NORTHERN
GFS/GEFS CAMP AND SLOWER/SOUTHWEST EC/ECENS. FROM WPC PMDHMD...THE
FRONTAL TIMING AND SFC LOW SPEED/TRACK DIFFERENCES APPEAR TIED TO
SOME NORTHERN STEAM SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION USED AGAIN TO MITIGATE
THE DIFFERENCES STILL RESULTS IN MAX POPS IN THE 00-12Z FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. 24HR RAIN TOTALS ENDING 12Z FRI RANGE FROM 0.50-1.00
INCH OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE AREA TO 0.25-0.50 INCHES TO THE EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
SOME SEASONABLY COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT
VIA GUSTY NW FLOW ON FRIDAY...WITH PCPN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NW MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE INTERIOR MID ATLC/NORTHEAST STATES
FRI NGT/SATURDAY BEFORE TAKING UP RESIDENCE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING MILDER RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL SPELL A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER
WEEKEND.
THE FASTER GFS CAMP STILL WANTS TO END EASTER WEEKEND ON A WET
NOTE...RETURNING PCPN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
ECMWF. THAT SAID...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND STAYS
DRY. LITTLE CHANGE HERE AGAIN TO PREVIOUS THINKING TOWARD A MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD APPROACH TO PCPN CHANCES INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WITH LLWS ONGOING
AS 850MB FLOW REMAINS BETWEEN 40-50KTS. SURFACE WINDS A BIT
TRICKIER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER MOST CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LOCALES /WHERE ATMOSPHERE HAS DECOUPLED/...AND SPEEDS HOLDING
AROUND 5-10 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS...THOUGH WESTERN RIDGETOPS
POKING INTO THE LLJET WILL HAVE HIGHER WINDS - WITH KJST GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
CIG RESTRICTIONS BEGIN TO WORK INTO NW MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ESP TONIGHT INTO THU ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY THU...WITH A LITTLE THUNDER POSS LATE THU AFT IN
THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NW
MTNS...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY NW HALF...MAINLY VFR WITH
LOCAL RESTRICTIONS ELSEWHERE. SOME THUNDER POSS WEST LATE THU.
BECOMING BREEZY WITH LLWS POSS THU NIGHT.
FRI...SHOWERS DIMINISHING. RESTRICTIONS EARLY THEN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SE. RESTRICTIONS PERSIST NW.
SAT...VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
458 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE
STATE...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH EAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED EAST/WEST FROM NEAR CYXU...TO
KIAG AND KSYR.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SHIELD OF ALTOCU AND ALTOSTRATUS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN TODAY...WHILE VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS AND SCT-BKN ALTO CU DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
05Z HRRR AND THE REST OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND 21Z SREF
ALL SHOW JUST A VERY LOW PROB OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO BRUSHING
THE AREA NORTH OF RT 6 TODAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS
DRY.
THE WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING NW TO NORTHERLY LLVL AGEOS FLOW WILL HELP TO NUDGE THE
VERY SHALLOW BUT SHARP BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL /OR MORE LIKELY NRN/
PENN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
VERTICAL MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 4-5 KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON /AND
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY/ WILL BRING WSW WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH
TO THE BALMY UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MAINLY CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS OF PENN. LOWS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BUT
COULD STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER INVOF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ IN EXCESS OF 50KTS WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD
FRONT. CHC FOR SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A TSRA OR TWO/ RAMPS UP
QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING UVVEL BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF AN APPROACHING 110 KT UPPER
JET AND WITHIN THE AXIS OF +2-3 SIGMA PWATS. ANY TSRA SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AOA DUSK THURSDAY...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/JG OF SFC BASED CAPE MOVES OVER THE MTNS OF WRN PENN...THEN
STRUGGLES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATER AT NIGHT.
TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE NRN
TIER...AND U60S TO L70S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE VERY MILD/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY
WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEEKEND STILL APPEARS IN STORE FOR EASTER WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY WILL DEAMPLIFY
AS IT REACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 25/12Z. RAIN WITH A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING YESTERDAY...AND STILL
FAVORING A MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION IN HANDLING THE DISTINCT -- BUT
NARROWING -- MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER/NORTHERN
GFS/GEFS CAMP AND SLOWER/SOUTHWEST EC/ECENS. FROM WPC PMDHMD...THE
FRONTAL TIMING AND SFC LOW SPEED/TRACK DIFFERENCES APPEAR TIED TO
SOME NORTHERN STEAM SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION USED AGAIN TO MITIGATE
THE DIFFERENCES STILL RESULTS IN MAX POPS IN THE 00-12Z FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. 24HR RAIN TOTALS ENDING 12Z FRI RANGE FROM 0.50-1.00
INCH OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE AREA TO 0.25-0.50 INCHES TO THE EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
SOME SEASONABLY COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT
VIA GUSTY NW FLOW ON FRIDAY...WITH PCPN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NW MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE INTERIOR MID ATLC/NORTHEAST STATES
FRI NGT/SATURDAY BEFORE TAKING UP RESIDENCE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING MILDER RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL SPELL A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER
WEEKEND.
THE FASTER GFS CAMP STILL WANTS TO END EASTER WEEKEND ON A WET
NOTE...RETURNING PCPN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
ECMWF. THAT SAID...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND STAYS
DRY. LITTLE CHANGE HERE AGAIN TO PREVIOUS THINKING TOWARD A MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD APPROACH TO PCPN CHANCES INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WITH LLWS ONGOING
AS 850MB FLOW REMAINS BETWEEN 40-50KTS. SURFACE WINDS A BIT
TRICKIER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER MOST CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LOCALES /WHERE ATMOSPHERE HAS DECOUPLED/...AND SPEEDS HOLDING
AROUND 5-10 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS...THOUGH WESTERN RIDGETOPS
POKING INTO THE LLJET WILL HAVE HIGHER WINDS - WITH KJST GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
CIG RESTRICTIONS BEGIN TO WORK INTO NW MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ESP TONIGHT INTO THU ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY THU...WITH A LITTLE THUNDER POSS LATE THU AFT IN
THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NW
MTNS...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY NW HALF...MAINLY VFR WITH
LOCAL RESTRICTIONS ELSEWHERE. SOME THUNDER POSS WEST LATE THU.
BECOMING BREEZY WITH LLWS POSS THU NIGHT.
FRI...SHOWERS DIMINISHING. RESTRICTIONS EARLY THEN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SE. RESTRICTIONS PERSIST NW.
SAT...VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
321 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE
STATE...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH EAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED EAST/WEST FROM NEAR CYXU...TO
KIAG AND KSYR.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SHIELD OF ALTOCU AND ALTOSTRATUS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN TODAY...WHILE VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS AND SCT-BKN ALTO CU DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
05Z HRRR AND THE REST OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND 21Z SREF
ALL SHOW JUST A VERY LOW PROB OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO BRUSHING
THE AREA NORTH OF RT 6 TODAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS
DRY.
THE WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING NW TO NORTHERLY LLVL AGEOS FLOW WILL HELP TO NUDGE THE
VERY SHALLOW BUT SHARP BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL /OR MORE LIKELY NRN/
PENN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
VERTICAL MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 4-5 KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON /AND
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY/ WILL BRING WSW WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH
TO THE BALMY UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MAINLY CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS OF PENN. LOWS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BUT
COULD STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER INVOF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ IN EXCESS OF 50KTS WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD
FRONT. CHC FOR SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A TSRA OR TWO/ RAMPS UP
QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING UVVEL BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF AN APPROACHING 110 KT UPPER
JET AND WITHIN THE AXIS OF +2-3 SIGMA PWATS. ANY TSRA SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AOA DUSK THURSDAY...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/JG OF SFC BASED CAPE MOVES OVER THE MTNS OF WRN PENN...THEN
STRUGGLES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATER AT NIGHT.
TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE NRN
TIER...AND U60S TO L70S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE VERY MILD/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY
WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEEKEND STILL APPEARS IN STORE FOR EASTER WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY WILL DEAMPLIFY
AS IT REACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 25/12Z. RAIN WITH A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING YESTERDAY...AND STILL
FAVORING A MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION IN HANDLING THE DISTINCT -- BUT
NARROWING -- MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER/NORTHERN
GFS/GEFS CAMP AND SLOWER/SOUTHWEST EC/ECENS. FROM WPC PMDHMD...THE
FRONTAL TIMING AND SFC LOW SPEED/TRACK DIFFERENCES APPEAR TIED TO
SOME NORTHERN STEAM SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION USED AGAIN TO MITIGATE
THE DIFFERENCES STILL RESULTS IN MAX POPS IN THE 00-12Z FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. 24HR RAIN TOTALS ENDING 12Z FRI RANGE FROM 0.50-1.00
INCH OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE AREA TO 0.25-0.50 INCHES TO THE EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
SOME SEASONABLY COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT
VIA GUSTY NW FLOW ON FRIDAY...WITH PCPN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NW MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE INTERIOR MID ATLC/NORTHEAST STATES
FRI NGT/SATURDAY BEFORE TAKING UP RESIDENCE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING MILDER RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL SPELL A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER
WEEKEND.
THE FASTER GFS CAMP STILL WANTS TO END EASTER WEEKEND ON A WET
NOTE...RETURNING PCPN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
ECMWF. THAT SAID...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND STAYS
DRY. LITTLE CHANGE HERE AGAIN TO PREVIOUS THINKING TOWARD A MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD APPROACH TO PCPN CHANCES INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST SWRLY FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WITH LLWS LIKELY AS 850MB
FLOW REMAINS BETWEEN 40-50KTS. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALSO HOLD
AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT...ESP NW HALF AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THERE WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ALONG THE NY
BORDER AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE GLAKES...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT.
CIG RESTRICTIONS BEGIN TO WORK INTO NW MTNS WED NIGHT INTO THU
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LATE WEEK
STORM. SHOWERS LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY THU...WITH A LITTLE
THUNDER POSS.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MVFR AND SCT -SHRA POSS NW. OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR.
WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...SHRA AND RESTRICTIONS LIKELY NW
HALF...MAINLY VFR SE. SOME THUNDER POSS THU. LLWS POSS THU NIGHT.
FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSS EARLY. THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SAT...VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NW HALF OF AIRSPACE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT WITH ANOTHER MOIST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RETURNING
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...A VIGOROUS COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY THRU
TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON ALONG THE EAST COAST.
INCREASING SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED WARMING TREND...SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE IN THE WEST. SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS STREAMING THRU. SWLY
UPSLOPE CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SW NC AND NE GA MTNS
LATER THIS AFTN. TO THE EAST...DEWPTS WILL ONCE AGAIN MIX OUT INTO
THE 20S TO LWR 30S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN FIRE WX CONCERNS (SEE FIRE
WX SECTION BELOW). HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S IN THE
MTNS...AND MAINLY MID 70S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. EXPECT ANY
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THRU
12Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MO AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD THU MORNING WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
BRING DEEPER FORCING AND MOISTURE EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THU EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THU...WITH
THE STRONGEST FORCING LIKELY CENTERED AROUND THU EVENING AS UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES...AND A 40 TO 50
KT LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SURVIVE INTO THE
AREA BY THU EVENING. SURFACE TO 3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 45
KT MAY BE COINCIDENT WITH A NARROW ZONE OF PRE/FRONTAL SBCAPE
RUNNING SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. A QLCS MODE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
DRYING IS EXPECTED WITH FROPA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THROUGH
FRI...WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT. DESPITE THE
FROPA...MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RISE ABOVE CLIMO ALL AREAS EXCEPT
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM SOURCE REGION OF THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY FALL
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND THEN TOWARD THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM
THE HIGH CENTERED OVER PA ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS NOW SLOWER AND DEEPER THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE 850 MB FRONT ORPHANED ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY MAY EXPERIENCE SOME UPGLIDE ACTIVATION
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAISE THE PROSPECT OF IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING
REMAINS LOW...BUT WILL STEADILY INCREASE RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE ECMWF NOW BRINGS THE COLD FROPA THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY WHILE
THE GFS IS SLOWER AND BRINGS A STRONGER WAVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS BETTER SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED. ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
DURING THE PERIOD OF ANY BETTER UPGLIDE...DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WILL LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE RAP AND NAM ARE IN LINE WITH TRENDS
ON THE KGSP VAD WIND PROFILE IN SHOWING A 40+ KT SWLY JET AROUND
1500-2000 FT AGL ACRS THE AREA. THE UPSTATE TAFS SEEM TO BE MIXING
ENUF OF THE WINDS...BUT THE NC SITES MAY HAVE SOME LLWS THRU
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. ONCE MIXING DEEPENS A COUPLE THOUSAND
FEET...EXPECT SW WINDS AROUND 10-12 KT AND GUSTS IN THE UPR TEENS TO
LWR 20S THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SKC AND P6SM
THRU THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...AND
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A ROUND
OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND
DOMINATE THE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ATOP THE AREA TODAY...BETWEEN A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOME GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER NE GA
AND EXTREME WESTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY GUSTIER THAN YESTERDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS
SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE CRITERIA FOR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
BOTH SC AND GA (GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH)...WHILE RH
DIPS INTO THE 20-30 PCT RANGE. THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER HEADLINE
FOR ALL OUR NC ZONES STILL LOOKS GOOD.
THURSDAY SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT RECOVERY...AND SO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ051-058-059-
062-063.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK
FIRE WEATHER...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER MOIST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...THE TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AGAIN TO MATCH UP WITH LATEST
OBS TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S...EXCEPT 30S IN THE COOLER MTN VALLEYS.
CONTINUED RETURN FLOW ATOP THE CWFA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACRS THE
PLAINS WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY WARMER MAX TEMPS TODAY...LOWER TO
MID 70S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S PIEDMONT. DESPITE RETURN
FLOW BRINGING DEWPTS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY...FIRE DANGER IS
EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED BY THE WARM TEMPS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. SEE
FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN OPENS UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW WILL BUILD A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE LOW. THE WAVES ROTATE INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE CROSSING THE AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JETLET. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A BAND OF INSTABILITY AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET HELPS CREATE QUITE A BIT OF BULK
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY. THEREFORE...WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION
LIKELY FIRING TO THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST INTO THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING...CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE FOR QLCS
STORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR
THURSDAY EVENING. OF COURSE...THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THERE COULD
BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND I-77
CORRIDOR EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE CLEAR
COMPLETELY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY FALL TO NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...STARTING TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AS
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...IN THAT IT SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS STARTS TO
DEVELOP ISENTROPIC LIFT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT DOES NOT
BECOME PRODUCTIVE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS
FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS STILL A DAY
SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND HAS MOST OF SUNDAY
DRY. THE FCST REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE AND DEVELOPS LIGHT PRECIP NEAR
THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY EXPANDS IT
OUTWARD FROM THERE DURING THE DAY...PER THE WPC GUIDANCE. THE TRICKY
PART WILL BE THE TEMPS...WHICH FOR NOW REMAIN ON THE LOW END OF
GUIDANCE BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAINLY IN DEFERENCE TO THE
MOSTLY DRY ECMWF. IF WE HAVE LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT BY AFTERNOON
E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME KIND OF WEAK IN-SITU
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE THAT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN FCST. THE MODELS EVENTUALLY COME MORE INTO LINE WITH DEVELOPING
PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH NOW TO RAISE THE PRECIP PROB INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY MIDDAY. THE UPPER WAVE
SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO FORCING
AND MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. SO...
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. DID NOT FOLLOW THE GFS WHICH WOULD KEEP A MOIST EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN
LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPS WERE KEPT NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE RAP AND NAM ARE IN LINE WITH TRENDS
ON THE KGSP VAD WIND PROFILE IN SHOWING A 40+ KT SWLY JET AROUND
1500-2000 FT AGL ACRS THE AREA. THE UPSTATE TAFS SEEM TO BE MIXING
ENUF OF THE WINDS...BUT THE NC SITES MAY HAVE SOME LLWS THRU
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. ONCE MIXING DEEPENS A COUPLE THOUSAND
FEET...EXPECT SW WINDS AROUND 10-12 KT AND GUSTS IN THE UPR TEENS TO
LWR 20S THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SKC AND P6SM
THRU THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...AND
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A ROUND
OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND
DOMINATE THE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE REGION...BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN THOSE TUESDAY. WITH EXTREMELY
DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS...THE FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT AND CAUSING RH TO REACH
CRITICALLY LOW VALUES OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NC. THE RELATIVELY
TIGHT GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS...THOUGH WINDS
AND GUSTS ARE STILL INSUFFICIENT TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. IN
COORDINATION WITH STATE AND FEDERAL LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES...A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS BEING ISSUED FOR NC TO HIGHLIGHT ELEVATED
RISK. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL ACROSS OUR SC AND GA ZONES...AND
LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES THERE HAVE NOT REQUESTED STATEMENTS AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...TONIGHT/S FORECAST SHIFTS WILL RE-EVALUATE
THE SITUATION AND COULD POTENTIALLY ISSUE A STATEMENT.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ051-058-059-
062-063.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
741 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2016
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTED A FAIRLY POTENT PV ANOMALY
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED
QPF AMOUNTS FOR LATE TNGT AND FRIDAY OVER THE NRN BLKHLS AND
NWRN-WCNTRL SD AREA AS THE VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT OVER WRN
SD AND KEEP PRECIP FOCUSED OVER THESE AREAS. THE RAIN-SNOW
TRANSITION IS GOING TO BE TRICKY...BUT IF THE PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH THERE COULD BE DYNAMIC COOLING THAT WOULD BOOST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. IN THE END THIS APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH FOR A WINTER WX ADVY
FOR THE NRN BLKHLS INTO NWRN-WCNTRL SD FOR MOST OF FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2016
STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIVE SE AND
AND SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION IN THE PERIOD.
PLENTY OF PAC MOISTURE INITIALLY WITH THE FGEN AREA OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH MOST OF THE FA...STALLING OVER
CENTRAL SD AS THE WAVE PIVOTS. WARM PROFILES WILL INITIALLY
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ESP ON THE PLAINS AND
OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS.
INITIAL N-S FGEN RESPONSE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AS THE INITIAL FGEN RESPONSE
SHIFTS EAST...MOIST LL UPSLOPE FLOW WITH PROFILES WARMER THAN -10C
MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE. OUTSIDE OF
THE NORTHERN HILLS...AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
NE WY /KGCC-KW43/ THROUGH 12Z FRI. MAIN AREA OF LL FGEN WILL SHIFT
EAST SLOWLY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...STALLING AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS
SUPPORTS TEMP WAVE CLOSING OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS NW
SD INTO CENTRAL SD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
FROM THE BH NE TO AROUND FAITH DEPENDING ON HOW FAST CAA ARRIVES
AND THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF CAA. HAVE SIDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
MEDIAN FOR SNOW TOTALS THERE...WITH CAA EXPECTED TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE. FURTHER WEST ACROSS NE WY AND BLACK HILLS...A LULL IN
PRECIP IS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN THE SYSTEM COLD POOL ALOFT
ARRIVES SUPPORTING INCREASING INSTABILITY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE BY MID AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE FIGHTING INCREASING SUN ANGLE ESP ON
ROADS. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR ADVECTING SE
INTO THE FA...WHICH WOULD HIGHLY LIMIT QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS. GENERALLY
EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES ON THE PLAINS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HILLS FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING. HENCE WILL
DEFER ANY HEADLINES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN HILLS GIVEN THE LULL
IN SNOWFALL FRI MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL A VERY TRICKY
FORECAST GIVEN MIXED PRECIP /DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT/AND LATE MARCH
INSOLATION. FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY.
LINGERING PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT...NW TO SE
ACROSS THE FA.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2016
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE SATURDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
MILDER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY MONDAY. AS RIDGE
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL
DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN STATES. DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF
THE WESTERN TROF AND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK
AND TIMING SO THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 450 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2016
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. RAIN/SNOW WILL DEVELOP
THIS EVNG ACROSS NERN WY AND SPREAD INTO THE BLKHLS AND NWRN SD BY
06Z...AND ACROSS THE REST OF WRN SD AROUND 12Z. THIS WILL PRODUCE
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THE RAIN/SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NERN WY AND NWRN/WCNTRL SD BY 18Z FRIDAY...
WITH CORRESPONDING IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALSO WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE OVER NERN WY...THE NRN BLKHLS...AND NWRN SD. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVNG.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SDZ024-028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-025-072-073.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WYZ057.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR WYZ071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BUNKERS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...BUNKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
347 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE UPDATE ISSUED AROUND MIDDAY AND HAVE
APPENDED THE UPDATE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR REFERENCE. BOTH THE RED
FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TROUGH 7 PM
CDT EVEN THOUGH MANY SITES ARE NOT CONSISTENTLY MEETING CRITERIA.
THE THREAT FOR FIRES AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
WE CONTINUE TO TRACK THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE...VISIBLE ON
AREA RADARS...WHICH AT 3 PM WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM OKLAHOMA
CITY TO GRAHAM TO FORT STOCKTON. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM OLNEY/GRAHAM TO ABILENE BUT
THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT TO THESE CLOUDS AND NO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ACARS SOUNDINGS AT KDFW AIRPORT INDICATE THE CAP HAS
WEAKENED BUT IS STILL IN PLACE. HOWEVER...BY 22-23Z...THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND RAPIDLY
INCREASES THE INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS
IF THE CAP CAN BE WEAKENED/ERODED.
THE COLD FRONT CAN ALSO BE TRACKED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND AREA RADARS SWEEPING DOWN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. AS THE FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE IN OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT/DRYLINE INTERACTION AND
POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE. AT FIRST...THESE
STORMS MAY FORM A BROKEN LINE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A
MORE SOLID LINE AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING...THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE EXITED
THE AREA LEAVING COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. FOR THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATER...INITIAL
THREATS WILL ALSO BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...AS THE STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE...THE MAIN
THREAT MAY BECOME DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A LOWER
THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THE SHEAR VALUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S BUT
IT WILL FEEL COOLER THAN THAT WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. BROAD TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE BUT WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SURFACE TO
H700 AND A RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE PLEASANT...SUNNY...AND DRY BUT IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN
SOME AREAS WITH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT BUT THE LATEST TRACK HAS IT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
MAY BE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INSTABILITY AND TIMING LEADING UP TO THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
SUNDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR MOST WITH TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES BUT
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CONUS
BY MIDWEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
JLDUNN
&&
.UPDATE.../1148 AM CDT/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ALSO MOVING ACROSS KANSAS. A DRYLINE
EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH...WITH THE LEADING EDGE NEAR A
VERNON TO SWEETWATER TO OZONA LINE. THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE
MIXING EAST...STALLING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AROUND MID- AFTERNOON AS
THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. WHERE THE DRYLINE STALLS REMAINS
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE
HI RES MODELS STALL THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE.
THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND WHERE IT STALLS WILL HAVE IMPACTS
ON THE LOCATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE WILL STALL NEAR A GAINESVILLE TO
GOLDTHWAITE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN 22-23Z /5-6 PM CDT/ AND
NOW THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION TOO IN THE SAME GENERAL
LOCATION AND TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SHOW THE CAP
WEAKENING ALONG THE DRYLINE ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
HAVE ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS POTENTIAL
ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO MERIDIAN LINE. STILL KEPT THE POPS
LOW AT 20 PERCENT AS ANY STORMS DURING THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME
SHOULD BE ISOLATED BUT THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. CAPE VALUES
WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG WITH STRONG BULK SHEAR VALUES. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
AFTER 6-7 PM...THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND A NARROW BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT/DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THIS HAPPENS. WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE
35...EXPANDED THE EVENING POPS WEST AS WELL BUT THE BEST STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SEVERE STORMS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE MAIN
THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO STRONG WINDS LATER IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IF THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR ALONG THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO
A SQUALL LINE. OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LOWER BUT WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1240 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARING CAN BE SEEN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE METROPLEX AND WACO. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
ERODE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WITH A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...THEN
DECREASE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX AROUND
6Z...AND THROUGH WACO AROUND 10Z BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WENT WITH VCTS FROM 4 TO 7Z AT THIS TIME FOR
ALL TAF SITES.
78.JG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 48 64 44 72 52 / 50 5 0 0 5
WACO, TX 50 66 40 72 49 / 60 5 0 0 5
PARIS, TX 47 61 40 68 47 / 60 5 0 0 5
DENTON, TX 46 63 39 70 50 / 40 5 0 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 47 62 39 69 49 / 50 5 0 0 5
DALLAS, TX 48 64 44 72 52 / 50 5 0 0 5
TERRELL, TX 48 63 41 70 49 / 60 5 0 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 51 65 43 71 50 / 60 10 0 0 5
TEMPLE, TX 52 66 42 71 49 / 50 5 0 0 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 46 65 39 73 50 / 30 5 0 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141-143>147-157>161-174.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-
100>102-115>117-129>132-141>143.
&&
$$
77/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1240 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.AVIATION...
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARING CAN BE SEEN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE METROPLEX AND WACO. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
ERODE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WITH A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...THEN
DECREASE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX AROUND
6Z...AND THROUGH WACO AROUND 10Z BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WENT WITH VCTS FROM 4 TO 7Z AT THIS TIME FOR
ALL TAF SITES.
78.JG
&&
.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ALSO MOVING ACROSS KANSAS. A DRYLINE
EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH...WITH THE LEADING EDGE NEAR A
VERNON TO SWEETWATER TO OZONA LINE. THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE
MIXING EAST...STALLING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON AS
THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. WHERE THE DRYLINE STALLS REMAINS
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE
HI RES MODELS STALL THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE.
THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND WHERE IT STALLS WILL HAVE IMPACTS
ON THE LOCATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE WILL STALL NEAR A GAINESVILLE TO
GOLDTHWAITE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN 22-23Z /5-6 PM CDT/ AND
NOW THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION TOO IN THE SAME GENERAL
LOCATION AND TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SHOW THE CAP
WEAKENING ALONG THE DRYLINE ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
HAVE ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS POTENTIAL
ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO MERIDIAN LINE. STILL KEPT THE POPS
LOW AT 20 PERCENT AS ANY STORMS DURING THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME
SHOULD BE ISOLATED BUT THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. CAPE VALUES
WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG WITH STRONG BULK SHEAR VALUES. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
AFTER 6-7 PM...THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND A NARROW BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT/DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THIS HAPPENS. WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE
35...EXPANDED THE EVENING POPS WEST AS WELL BUT THE BEST STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SEVERE STORMS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE MAIN
THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO STRONG WINDS LATER IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IF THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR ALONG THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO
A SQUALL LINE. OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LOWER BUT WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING BUT BASED ON THE
NEW EXPECTED POSITION OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE RFW.
HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
DRYLINE...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE COUNTIES FROM THE
WARNING.
JLDUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOME
GULF MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ARE NOW
15 TO 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. 60-DEGREE
DEWPOINTS ARE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE WINDS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE
TOWARD SUNRISE BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN. TO MAKE THINGS
SIMPLER...DECIDED TO START THE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 AM AND CONTINUE
IT UNTIL 7 PM FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO
KILLEEN TO CAMERON TO ATHENS.
A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO HAD DEEPENED IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL KEEP A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS OF 20
TO 30 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS.
A DRYLINE THAT IS OVER WEST TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND
APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON. THE COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
IF STORMS MANAGE TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE... THEY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLS AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN ACTION WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE
STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE AS THEY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT BUT SOME DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE RAIN
WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WE WILL HAVE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FRIDAY...AND 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE OFF A
BIT RESULTING IN A THE GFS BEING SLOWER AND WETTER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE RAIN WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF THE
ECMWF IS RIGHT OR SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. FOR NOW HAVE
USED A BLEND WHICH STILL KEEPS THE RAIN INTO SUNDAY EVENING. DRY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 85 48 64 43 71 / 20 40 5 0 0
WACO, TX 83 48 66 38 71 / 10 50 5 0 0
PARIS, TX 79 46 60 40 67 / 10 60 5 0 0
DENTON, TX 83 45 63 37 70 / 20 40 5 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 82 46 61 38 68 / 20 50 5 0 0
DALLAS, TX 84 48 64 44 71 / 20 50 5 0 0
TERRELL, TX 79 48 63 40 69 / 10 60 5 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 82 51 65 43 70 / 10 60 10 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 83 50 66 41 71 / 10 50 5 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 86 44 65 39 72 / 10 20 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141-143>147-157>161-174.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-
100>102-115>117-129>132-141>143.
&&
$$
78
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1148 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ALSO MOVING ACROSS KANSAS. A DRYLINE
EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH...WITH THE LEADING EDGE NEAR A
VERNON TO SWEETWATER TO OZONA LINE. THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE
MIXING EAST...STALLING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON AS
THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. WHERE THE DRYLINE STALLS REMAINS
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE
HI RES MODELS STALL THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE.
THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND WHERE IT STALLS WILL HAVE IMPACTS
ON THE LOCATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE WILL STALL NEAR A GAINESVILLE TO
GOLDTHWAITE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN 22-23Z /5-6 PM CDT/ AND
NOW THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION TOO IN THE SAME GENERAL
LOCATION AND TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SHOW THE CAP
WEAKENING ALONG THE DRYLINE ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
HAVE ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS POTENTIAL
ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO MERIDIAN LINE. STILL KEPT THE POPS
LOW AT 20 PERCENT AS ANY STORMS DURING THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME
SHOULD BE ISOLATED BUT THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. CAPE VALUES
WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG WITH STRONG BULK SHEAR VALUES. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
AFTER 6-7 PM...THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND A NARROW BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT/DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THIS HAPPENS. WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE
35...EXPANDED THE EVENING POPS WEST AS WELL BUT THE BEST STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SEVERE STORMS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE MAIN
THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO STRONG WINDS LATER IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IF THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR ALONG THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO
A SQUALL LINE. OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LOWER BUT WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING BUT BASED ON THE
NEW EXPECTED POSITION OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE RFW.
HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
DRYLINE...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE COUNTIES FROM THE
WARNING.
JLDUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 958 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
METROPLEX AND SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING. WACO WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BRINGING THEM BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY 18Z AS WELL. WITH A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...THEN DECREASING TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METROPLEX LATE AROUND 6Z...AND THROUGH WACO AROUND 10Z BRINGING
THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WENT WITH VCTS FROM 4 TO 7Z AT
THIS TIME FOR ALL TAF SITES.
78.JG
.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
/12Z TAFS/ STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS TRANSPORTED A LARGE MASS OF LOW
CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD INTO THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAF SITES PRIOR
TO 06Z...AND THIS BKN/OVC025-035 SHIELD PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY. THE WESTERN EDGE...HOWEVER IS STARTING TO FRACTURE AND
RETREAT EASTWARD AS WINDS IN THE LOWEST 0-3KFT BEGIN TO VEER
SLIGHTLY TO A 200-210 DIRECTION. BELIEVE CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE DFW AREA TAF SITES IN THE 14-16Z
TIMEFRAME...AND AROUND 18Z AT WACO...LEAVING SCT040 CONDITIONS
THRU THE AFTERNOON.
WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
TODAY...EXPECT WINDS THRU 21Z TO STAY RELATIVELY STEADY STATE
FROM A 190-210 DIRECTION AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 20KTS. A
DRYLINE WILL REACH THE METROPLEX VICINITY BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z...AND
WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING TO A 220-240 DIRECTION. AT LEAST
SOME MINOR CROSSWIND ISSUES COULD EXIST TODAY...ESPECIALLY ON NW-
SE ORIENTED RUNWAYS. A FURTHER WIND SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION WILL ENSUE BETWEEN 04-07Z AT THE METROPLEX AND WACO
SITES IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SPEEDS WILL STAY UP
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER...DUE TO A CONTINUED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THE DRYLINE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOTH MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS EVENING...ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY MAY EXIST TO
PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE METROPLEX EAST AND
NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 02Z. WHILE CONVECTION IS A GOOD BET OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT WHERE IMPROVED LARGE SCALE LIFT EXISTS...
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IGNITE FARTHER SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND FRONT IN THE
METROPLEX. FOR NOW...HAVE HELD ONTO VCTS WORDING IN DFW-AREA AND
WACO TAFS...WITH THE IDEA THAT TEMPO OR CATEGORICAL WORDING MAY BE
REQUIRED IN LATER UPDATES. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR THE METROPLEX
SITES SHOULD SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED BETWEEN 02Z-04Z...BEFORE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHUNTS THE INSTABILITY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
BRADSHAW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOME
GULF MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ARE NOW
15 TO 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. 60-DEGREE
DEWPOINTS ARE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE WINDS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE
TOWARD SUNRISE BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN. TO MAKE THINGS
SIMPLER...DECIDED TO START THE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 AM AND CONTINUE
IT UNTIL 7 PM FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO
KILLEEN TO CAMERON TO ATHENS.
A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO HAD DEEPENED IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL KEEP A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS OF 20
TO 30 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS.
A DRYLINE THAT IS OVER WEST TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND
APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON. THE COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
IF STORMS MANAGE TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE... THEY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLS AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN ACTION WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE
STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE AS THEY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT BUT SOME DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE RAIN
WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WE WILL HAVE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FRIDAY...AND 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE OFF A
BIT RESULTING IN A THE GFS BEING SLOWER AND WETTER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE RAIN WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF THE
ECMWF IS RIGHT OR SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. FOR NOW HAVE
USED A BLEND WHICH STILL KEEPS THE RAIN INTO SUNDAY EVENING. DRY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 85 48 64 43 71 / 20 40 5 0 0
WACO, TX 83 48 66 38 71 / 10 50 5 0 0
PARIS, TX 79 46 60 40 67 / 10 60 5 0 0
DENTON, TX 83 45 63 37 70 / 20 40 5 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 82 46 61 38 68 / 20 50 5 0 0
DALLAS, TX 84 48 64 44 71 / 20 50 5 0 0
TERRELL, TX 79 48 63 40 69 / 10 60 5 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 82 51 65 43 70 / 10 60 10 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 83 50 66 41 71 / 10 50 5 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 86 44 65 39 72 / 10 20 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141-143>147-157>161-174.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-
100>102-115>117-129>132-141>143.
&&
$$
78/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
407 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER
WE WILL SEE ANY CONVECTION WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES GET VERY WARM. 4 KM MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME WEAK ECHOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NSSL 4 KM SHOWING
ACTIVITY MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME
WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS (ONLY GOING OUT TO 3 AM AS
OF THIS WRITING). TTU 4 KM NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING (WHICH COULD
OCCUR AS WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND VIRGA). OVERALL FEELING
HOWEVER IS THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE...MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE MID-LEVEL THETA-E MAX IS LOCATED
AND SEA-BREEZE INTERACTION WOULD BE MAXIMIZED. THERE IS STILL A
STRONG CAP (HIGH CIN) AND THE FACT THAT 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY
COULD PRECLUDE ANY STRONG CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SHOULD CAP BREAK
WITH SEA-BREEZE WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS 45 MPH OR MORE. IN SHORT...WILL GO WITH A 20
POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
ELSEWHERE...DID MENTION SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH SOME AREAS
TOPPING 90 DEGREES.
SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT A STRONG COOL DOWN WILL NOT BE SEEN AS UPPER TROUGH
WHICH WAS SUPPOSED TO ALLOW THE COOLER AIR TO COME DOWN IS FORECAST
TO BE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AND NORTHERLY FETCH IS WEAK. STILL...
WILL SEE 50S MOST INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. GOING A BIT WARMER
WEDNESDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF I-
37 WILL ONLY SEE 70S...WITH NEAR 80 TO LOWER 80S WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE. RETURN FLOW RESUMES WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT.
COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM MAINLY NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPROACHING SCA BUT OVERALL SCEC. ONSHORE FLOW
RESUMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A COUPLE OF
COOL/PLEASANT DAYS ARE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES EAST ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SE
CONUS. NE FLOW LLVL THURS NIGHT WILL BECOME MORE ESE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. A WEAK H5 S/W TROUGH IS PROG TO ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE...BUT
ALL IN ALL GOOD FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE NICE WEATHER. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS PROG TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A
POTENT TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES. NOTICEABLY
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TROUGH KICKS EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND AID IN SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROG TO MOVE ACROSS S TX SUNDAY...BUT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED...AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME. BRIEF COOL
DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK BEFORE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
REDEVELOPING AT THAT TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 84 63 74 51 74 / 10 40 30 0 0
VICTORIA 80 59 69 45 74 / 10 50 20 0 0
LAREDO 94 60 79 53 80 / 0 20 10 0 0
ALICE 89 62 75 47 76 / 10 30 20 0 0
ROCKPORT 82 62 72 52 72 / 10 40 40 0 0
COTULLA 92 57 76 49 78 / 0 30 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 87 63 76 48 76 / 10 40 30 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 81 64 73 57 73 / 10 40 40 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1049 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THIS FRONT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...
RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING THE HRRR QUITE WELL...WHICH
SHOWS A CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND OF THE FRONTAL ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. THE FIRST
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BEFORE EVEN
REACHING THE I-77 CORRIDOR WITH REALLY NO THUNDER MAKING IT MUCH
PAST MIDDLE TN WITH THAT ACTIVITY. TWO OTHER NARROW LINES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FORMED ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT BACK
IN EASTERN KY LIFTING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...ALSO PER HRRR. BOTH
THE HRRR AND NCEP WRF SHOW VERY LITTLE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT
THE RNK CWA. A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP IN THE
GSP/CLT AREA AND TRANSLATE NORTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHICH MAY BE THE ONLY WAY PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO
THAT PART OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SIGNS...HOWEVER...THAT THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY HANG UP SOME ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST AND THE BEST SUPPORT LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS COULD DELAY CLEARING AND PERHAPS EVEN RESULT IN
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE PIEDMONT AS LATE AS EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES TO POPS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN...HAVE GREATLY REDUCED POPS AND QPF
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
HOLDING TOGETHER PER MESO-MODEL RUNS IS LOW AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS DEFINITELY SUPPORT LESS POPS/QPF AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURE IS BASICALLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY RUNNING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED...SO MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE INCREASED
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT...WILL REDUCE THE FIRE
DANGER THREAT SO THAT NO HEADLINES PERTAINING TO FIRE WEATHER ARE
NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO NOT PUSH THE
COOLER AIR MASS COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT VERY FAR SOUTH AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUITE A BIT.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT AND MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WEDGES DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY WHICH BRINGS THE WINDS AROUND
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE. SATURDAYS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER MAXIMUMS...SIMILAR TO THE
MET GUIDANCE.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE AFTER 00Z MON/7PM SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TROF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ECMWF BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE LOW
TRACKS TOWARD NEW JERSEY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC WAS FAVORING THE
TIMING AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE HIGH MOVES
FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY FOR RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF AND INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE BETTER
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BLF WHICH WILL ALREADY BE IN THE SHOWERS THAT ARE GOING
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD. WHILE LOCATIONS
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP THE CERTAINTY
DECREASES BEYOND THE BLUE RIDGE. MAINTAINED SHORT PERIOD OF PRECIP
AT DAN AND LYH BASED ON LATEST RUN OF HRRR. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND THOSE IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LINGERING UPSLOPE MOISTURE
THERE.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEHIND THE LINE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE
WEST. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS BUT
STILL SOME CHANCE FOR GUSTS TOM0RROW IN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD WORK TO SLOWLY RETURN ANY
STATION WITH LOW CIGS BACK TO VFR.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD BRING A THREAT FOR SUB-VFR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHT AND
PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM
SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...
RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 800 PM. ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1/4
INCH...PERHAPS EVEN LESS THAN 1/10 INCH IN MOST AREAS...CLOUD
COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WIND COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE BEHIND
THE FRONT. SO WHILE A HEADLINE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...THE PROBABILITY FOR SUCH IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...PH/RAB
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JR/PH
FIRE WEATHER...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
852 AM PDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOL SHOWERY
WEATHER ON THURSDAY. SNOW WILL FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 3000 FEET. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TURNING TO
SHOWERS SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WARM FRONT TODAY...COLD FRONT TONIGHT. TODAY WILL BE
A BIT DRIPPY WITH THE WARM FRONT. STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN WILL
ARRIVE AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR.
THE MOUNTAINS COULD GET LOW END SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS TONIGHT WITH
SNOW LEVELS 4000-4500 FEET.
THURSDAY WILL BE SHOWERY AND BLUSTERY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST SLIGHT UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 2500 TO 3000 FEET.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FRIDAY AND
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER FRIDAY
AND PRETTY MUCH END BY FRIDAY EVENING AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS. SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR
TWO. THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
INLAND SATURDAY...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND BECOME NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A LARGE BLOCKING UPPER HIGH WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MCDONNAL
&&
.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND STABLE.
CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INLAND. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY. WINDS BECOMING SW/W BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
KSEA...LIGHT RAIN IN THE AREA TODAY...WITH SHOWERS INCREASING
TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. S WINDS 10-15KT...BECOMING SW WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TONIGHT. 33
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY
WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS.
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY EASE ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...WEST SWELLS WILL BUILD TO 15
TO 18 FEET. THE FLOW WILL BRIEFLY TURN OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. 33
&&
.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5
PM PDT THURSDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-
PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
441 AM PDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cool, wet and breezy weather pattern will continue for the
Inland Northwest this week. After a brief break today, the next
weather system will arrive tonight into Thursday with more rain
and mountain snow. Breezy conditions will also develop on Thursday
in the wake of the cold front with the threat of snow showers
continuing through Friday. Drier weather is expected by Saturday
but it could be short-lived as yet another cold front brings more
precipitation later on Sunday and into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: A progressive spring weather pattern will
persist over the Inland Northwest for the next 24 hours and
beyond. The shower remnants of the departing shortwave will linger
over north Idaho early this morning with bands of snow showers. A
winter weather advisory for the Camas Prairie will come down early
this morning as the snow showers are exiting this area. Doubt if
any additional winter highlights will be needed. The HRRR shows
the shower bands decreasing by sunrise as high pressure builds
into the region with more stable conditions. Behind the band of
showers and wedge of clearing, fog and stratus will be a concern
as it blooms across the saturated areas around the Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene areas and the surrounding valleys. The March sun should
mix the lower atmosphere and help the fog/stratus dissipate by
late morning. Meanwhile, this ridge of high pressure will
translate across the the region. It will be being short lived and
a bit dirty as mid and high level clouds increase through the
day. Low level winds will back to the southwest with warm air
advection and isentropic lift spreading across the region. Light
precipitation will develop near the Cascade crest later by midday and
spread across north central into northeast Washington by
afternoon. This evening the surface cold front will slip east of
the Cascades and push across eastern Washington overnight. Expect
precipitation chances to increase overnight especially across
extreme eastern Washington into north Idaho. Snow levels will
range from 3-4K ft in the mountains with a few inches of new
accumulations anticipated. The main impact is expected to be
travel across Lookout Pass on I-90. Rain expected at most lower
elevations. Winds will increase overnight with the passage of the
front and local gusts of 30 mph. rfox
...Breezy Thursday across the Columbia Basin, Palouse and Spokane
areas...
Thursday and Friday: Precipitation will remain in the forecast
through Friday as an upper level low pressure system weakens and
moves across the Pacific Northwest out of Canada. Decent westerly
flow will keep portions of the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee,
Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Valley dry. Showers will remain in
the forecast for the rest of the area including the Cascade crest,
eastern WA (east of a line from Republic to Walla Wall), and north
ID. In addition to the showers, (which could be briefly heavy at
times) winds will increase from the west during the morning and
remain quite breezy through the afternoon hours. Have increased
the wind a bit further from previous forecast, but still have
speeds below wind advisory criteria. Snow levels will remain
generally around 4000 feet, but late Thur night/early Friday
morning snow levels could drop down towards 3000 feet which could
bring a mix of rain/snow or wet snow to portions of southern
Spokane County and Whitman County. The mountains of north ID could
see 4 to 8 inches, with locally higher amounts possible in
southern Shoshone County. The Cascades could see 1 to 4 inches,
with higher amounts of a foot or more along the crest.
Saturday through Wednesday: We dry out Saturday as a shortwave
ridge moves over the Inland Northwest. But, it is shortlived, as
the next through pushes onshore Saturday Night and spreads
precipitation into central WA by early Sunday morning and into
eastern WA and north ID by late morning and afternoon. This event
looks like another round of valley rain and mountain snow for the
region. The low will start to dig south by Monday afternoon which
will decrease chance of precipitation for the region. Northerly
winds to develop Monday evening for the usual north/south oriented
valleys. The Okanogan Valley will see winds increase and then be
funneled down into the Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake area.
Northerly winds will also funnel down the Purcell Trench and into
Coeur d`Alene as well. The northerly winds will peak Tuesday
afternoon and then decrease through the evening hours.
Temperatures for the weekend will be at or slightly below average,
then by Tuesday/Wednesday we start to trend up to at or slightly
above average. /Nisbet
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Morning scattered showers will continue in the Panhandle
mountains east of KCOE. Meanwhile a MVFR cigs with patchy fog
will fill into the valleys from KCOE and both north and south. It
may creep toward the KGEG/KSFF area by early this morning,
although confidence is not optimal. Any low decks that do develop
will lift by 18z. Overall, mid and high levels clouds will be on
the increase from the west. Light precipitation will move in from
the west and reach the higher terrain of north central Washington by
late afternoon, and spread to the valleys by the evening. Light
rain and high mountain snow will spread across the TAF sites
overnight with areas of MVFR cigs. /rfox.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 51 35 49 34 50 31 / 10 90 40 20 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 51 35 48 32 49 30 / 20 90 70 40 40 10
Pullman 50 36 48 34 49 31 / 10 90 70 70 50 20
Lewiston 56 38 54 38 54 34 / 10 70 50 50 50 20
Colville 57 33 50 32 51 28 / 20 70 40 20 20 10
Sandpoint 48 34 46 31 47 29 / 20 90 100 50 30 10
Kellogg 45 33 43 31 44 28 / 30 90 100 70 60 20
Moses Lake 59 36 57 36 56 33 / 10 30 0 10 10 0
Wenatchee 57 37 54 35 53 34 / 10 20 0 10 10 0
Omak 57 34 53 32 52 31 / 10 30 20 10 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
236 AM PDT WED MAR 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW
FROMTHE W TODAY...WITH A WARM FRONT POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO THE CASCADES. VALLEY RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER THU INTO FRI AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS AND
ADDITIONAL WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE IN FROM THE NW. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
AGAIN FRI NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. THE NEXT FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A COOL UPPER LOW
THEN OVER THE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSRVATIONS HAVE SHOWN PERSISTENT
AREAS OF LIGHT RAINFALL OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
OVER THE W SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. THE CONVECTIVE
AIR MASS WAS IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING TO A MORE STRATIFORM
AIR MASS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN
THE285KAND295K ISENTROPES SPREADING INTO THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT BRUSHES THE REGION. WITH THE NW
ONSHORE FLOW OF LAST EVENING ALREADY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SW
ONSHORE FLOW...MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
TODAY. WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS THIS MORNING WHERE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO END OVERNIGHT... BUT OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS BEST POPS IN THE NW PART OF THE AREA WHERE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS ESP OVER THE
SE...SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WNW
THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVWE ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS WA. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS MAINLY BELOW 700MB
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH GOOD DYNAMICS AND ONSHORE FLOW FOLLOWING
WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. WSW 850 MB FLOW
WITH THE FRONT AROUND 06Z IS FAIRLY STRONG...MODELS RUNNING BETWEEN
40 TO 50 KT...WHICH WILL FAVOR OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR THE CASCADES
TONIGHT. THE FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY BY MORNING THOUGH...SO WHILE
THERE MAY BE A SHORT BURST OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THE CASCADES WITH
SNOW LEVELS LOWERING BELOW PASSES BY MORNING...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS
TO GENERALLY COME UP SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONETHELESS...AN
UNSTABLE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THU KEEPING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING EVERYWHERE...BUT STILL FAVORING CASCADES
WITH THE BEST POPS.
MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING S THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. TIMING VARIES A BIT IN THE MODELS...BUT OVERALL
THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING INTO FRI...WITH THE BEST
POPS OVER THE S WA CASCADES WHERE DYNAMICS WITH THE WAVE ARE
STRONGEST. WILL INDICATE A LOWERING OF POPS BY FRI AFTERNOON THOUGH
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE SSE.
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSING OVER THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN
RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIOD HAS IMPROVED A
BIT TODAY...AND HAVE MOVED THE FORECAST TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO REMAIN DRY INLAND THOUGH THERE WILL
STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN MAY BEGIN
ALONG THE COAST BY AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT PUSHES INLAND SATURDAY EVENING AND SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY
BE HIGH...AROUND 6000 FEET. RAIN THEN TRANSITIONS TO SHOWERS IN THE
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT AND PRECIPITATION IN THE CASCADES WILL
INCREASINGLY BECOME SNOW AS SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 3000
FEET LATER SUNDAY IN THE COOL POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. H5 HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE REGION TO THE 5400-5450 METER RANGE AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE REGION AND PARKS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS EARLY MONDAY MAY LOWER TO
NEAR THE HIGHEST COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILL ELEVATIONS AS SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS CONTINUE. EXPECT A DRYING AND WARMING TREND FOR
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL OF MVFR CIGS
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT LIKELY AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH. VFR LIKELY TURNING TO MVFR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE
TONIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR WITH LOCAL CIGS AROUND 2500
FEET POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z WED. MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
FEET BECOMING LIKELY AFTER 04Z THU WITH OCCASIONAL 3-4SM IN RAIN
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR
AFTER 09Z THU. /MH
&&
.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS WILL GIVE WAY
TO A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING GALE GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS MAY HAVE A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. HIGH PRES TO THE SW STRENGTHENS OVER THE WATERS THU AND
FRI. THE HIGH PRES IS THEN KNOCKED DOWN BY ANOTHER FRONT ON SUN
WHICH MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS.
SEAS AROUND 9 TO 10 FT WITH A DOWNWARD TREND THIS MORNING BUT
WILL BUILD AGAIN LATER TODAY AND PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS ON
THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD GO BELOW 10 FT ON SAT.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
8 AM PDT THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 AM PDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cool, wet and breezy weather pattern will continue for the
Inland Northwest this week. After a brief break today, the next
weather system will arrive tonight into Thursday with more rain
and mountain snow. Breezy conditions will also develop on Thursday
in the wake of the cold front with the threat of snow showers
continuing through Friday. Drier weather is expected by Saturday
but it could be short-lived as yet another cold front brings more
precipitation later on Sunday and into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: A progressive spring weather pattern will
persist over the Inland Northwest for the next 24 hours and
beyond. The shower remnants of the departing shortwave will linger
over north Idaho early this morning with bands of snow showers. A
winter weather advisory for the Camas Prairie will come down early
this morning as the snow showers are exiting this area. Doubt if
any additional winter highlights will be needed. The HRRR shows
the shower bands decreasing by sunrise as high pressure builds
into the region with more stable conditions. Behind the band of
showers and wedge of clearing, fog and stratus will be a concern
as it blooms across the saturated areas around the Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene areas and the surrounding valleys. The March sun should
mix the lower atmosphere and help the fog/stratus dissipate by
late morning. Meanwhile, this ridge of high pressure will
translate across the the region. It will be being short lived and
a bit dirty as mid and high level clouds increase through the
day. Low level winds will back to the southwest with warm air
advection and isentropic lift spreading across the region. Light
precipitation will develop near the Cascade crest later by midday and
spread across north central into northeast Washington by
afternoon. This evening the surface cold front will slip east of
the Cascades and push across eastern Washington overnight. Expect
precipitation chances to increase overnight especially across
extreme eastern Washington into north Idaho. Snow levels will
range from 3-4K ft in the mountains with a few inches of new
accumulations anticipated. The main impact is expected to be
travel across Lookout Pass on I-90. Rain expected at most lower
elevations. Winds will increase overnight with the passage of the
front and local gusts of 30 mph. rfox
...Breezy Thursday across the Columbia Basin, Palouse and Spokane
areas...
Thursday and Friday: Precipitation will remain in the forecast
through Friday as an upper level low pressure system weakens and
moves across the Pacific Northwest out of Canada. Decent westerly
flow will keep portions of the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee,
Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Valley dry. Showers will remain in
the forecast for the rest of the area including the Cascade crest,
eastern WA (east of a line from Republic to Walla Wall), and north
ID. In addition to the showers, (which could be briefly heavy at
times) winds will increase from the west during the morning and
remain quite breezy through the afternoon hours. Have increased
the wind a bit further from previous forecast, but still have
speeds below wind advisory criteria. Snow levels will remain
generally around 4000 feet, but late Thur night/early Friday
morning snow levels could drop down towards 3000 feet which could
bring a mix of rain/snow or wet snow to portions of southern
Spokane County and Whitman County. The mountains of north ID could
see 4 to 8 inches, with locally higher amounts possible in
southern Shoshone County. The Cascades could see 1 to 4 inches,
with higher amounts of a foot or more along the crest.
Saturday through Wednesday: We dry out Saturday as a shortwave
ridge moves over the Inland Northwest. But, it is shortlived, as
the next through pushes onshore Saturday Night and spreads
precipitation into central WA by early Sunday morning and into
eastern WA and north ID by late morning and afternoon. This event
looks like another round of valley rain and mountain snow for the
region. The low will start to dig south by Monday afternoon which
will decrease chance of precipitation for the region. Northerly
winds to develop Monday evening for the usual north/south oriented
valleys. The Okanogan Valley will see winds increase and then be
funneled down into the Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake area.
Northerly winds will also funnel down the Purcell Trench and into
Coeur d`Alene as well. The northerly winds will peak Tuesday
afternoon and then decrease through the evening hours.
Temperatures for the weekend will be at or slightly below average,
then by Tuesday/Wednesday we start to trend up to at or slightly
above average. /Nisbet
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Isolated -shra/-shsn near the WA/ID border will continue
to shift east-southeast tonight, decreasing the threat around TAF
sites between 06-10Z. A low level southwest flow and moist BL
should allow for some MVFR/IFR stratus to develop, with the
potential for localized fog, as the precipitation is ending.
Confidence in fog development is low. The threat of fog/stratus
will dissipate after 15-18Z, but some pop-up showers are possible
around the mountains Wednesday afternoon. A broader threat of
precipitation comes in Wednesday night with the next system, but
the best risk holds off until after 06Z Thursday (Wednesday
night). /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 51 35 49 34 50 31 / 10 90 40 20 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 51 35 48 32 49 30 / 20 90 70 40 40 10
Pullman 50 36 48 34 49 31 / 10 90 70 70 50 20
Lewiston 56 38 54 38 54 34 / 10 70 50 50 50 20
Colville 57 33 50 32 51 28 / 20 70 40 20 20 10
Sandpoint 48 34 46 31 47 29 / 20 90 100 50 30 10
Kellogg 45 33 43 31 44 28 / 30 90 100 70 60 20
Moses Lake 59 36 57 36 56 33 / 10 30 0 10 10 0
Wenatchee 57 37 54 35 53 34 / 10 20 0 10 10 0
Omak 57 34 53 32 52 31 / 10 30 20 10 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
950 PM PDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL TAPER TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON
THURSDAY...THEN DECREASE ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...STILL A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN A CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER SNOHOMISH
COUNTY. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK WARM FRONT ALREADY EAST OF 130W AT 04Z.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND BRUSH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT BACK OUT NEAR 135W THIS EVENING WILL
APPROACH THE COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL
DO A SMALL UPDATE TO THE ZONE AND INCREASE THE POPS FROM
SEATTLE SOUTH INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE STEADY RAIN GIVING WAY TO SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS AHEAD AND
WITH THE FRONT WILL BE ABOVE SNOQUALMIE AND STEVENS PASS...NEAR 4500
FEET. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.
GOOD POST FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD OROGRAPHIC FLOW
ALOFT AS WELL WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THE END OF MARCH. THE AIR MASS WILL COOL WITH THE SNOW
LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR 3000 FEET FOR SNOW IN ALL THE PASSES. WEAK
SHORTWAVES SPINNING OUT OF A TROUGH ALONG THE CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE
TROUGH OVERHEAD...NEAR 40.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE. NOT FAST ENOUGH
TO ELIMINATE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. FELTON
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A FRONT WILL BRING SOME
RAIN EITHER LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL TURN INTO A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY FOR DRIER
WEATHER. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL BRING DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER
&&
.AVIATION...A LINGERING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS WHAT LOOKS TO BE
A CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF SNOHOMISH
COUNTY...OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY IS PRETTY LIMITED. THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY STABLE...EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE STABLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE AREA ON WED...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WED NIGHT. 33/SMR
KSEA...S/SW WINDS TO 10 KT. HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS FROM TAF AS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF TERMINAL. ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z WED. 33/SMR
&&
.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE
NE PAC AND LOWER PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE WESTERLY
SWELLS ARE STILL BOUNCING BETWEEN 9 FT AND 10 FT FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING TO COVER THIS GOING BACK AND
FORTH...AND WILL LIKELY BE OKAY TO EXPIRE WITHOUT ANY EXTENSION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT CLIPS
WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY THEN EASE
ON FRIDAY. THE FLOW MAY TURN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. 33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
940 PM PDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cool, wet and breezy weather pattern will continue for the
Inland Northwest this week. The first wet weather system will
end late tonight but will be followed by another round of
precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday. Breezy conditions
will also develop on Thursday in the wake of the cold front with
the threat of snow showers continuing through Friday. Drier
weather may develop by Saturday but it could be short-lived as yet
another cold front brings more precipitation on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: modifications were made to the ongoing advisory
and I added fog to the forecast.
The deformation axis and instability showers continue across
eastern WA and north ID this evening. These should continue to
shift east-southeast through the remainder of the night. Some
minor adjustments: I extended the winter weather advisory for the
Camas Prairie through 12Z (5 AM). The most likely impacts are
expected until 06-09Z so it may be possible this may be removed
earlier than 12Z. Additional accumulations up an 1 inch are
possible here. The advisory for the Blue Mountains has been
cancelled with the main band of precipitation shifting east.
I added fog to the forecast for later tonight and early Tuesday,
largely across the upper Columbia Basin into the Spokane/C`dA
area, higher Palouse and in the sheltered valleys. Confidence in
precise onset and dissipation, as well as coverage may is low to
fair so adjustment may be needed. Some factors supporting fog:
the very moist boundary layer from all the precipitation we had
today, the winds are expected to abate through the night and
become more southwesterly and we have clearing from the west.
Forecast soundings also indicate a moderate to strong low level
inversion setting up with a mid-level ridge coming in from the
west ahead of the next system. The HRRR supports the broader
coverage of fog developing after midnight over eastern Lincoln and
western Spokane county but it has been inconsistent on the precise
timing and coverage. So for the most part I kept the fog wording
as patchy, save for the typical areas around the West Plains of
Spokane which may suffer from more fog. /J. Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Moisture and instability around an exiting upper low
will provide SCT -SHRA/SHSN over east WA/north ID tonight. The
better threat will be found before 03Z, then start to retreat to
the southeast and wane overnight into Wednesday morning. Isolated
thunderstorms will be found over NE and central WA, east of MWH
and west of GEG, mainly before sunset. These are expected to stay
away from TAF sites, but radar trends will be monitored. Other
isolated showers are possible again Wed PM, mainly closer to the
mountain. Expect VFR/LCL MVFR this evening, but as the night
progresses MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to become more
widespread near GEG/SFF/COE/PUW, with some upslope stratus. There
could also be some localized fog. Conditions should improve after
18Z tomorrow. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 34 50 36 50 33 50 / 30 10 90 40 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 34 48 36 48 32 50 / 30 20 90 60 40 40
Pullman 35 49 36 48 34 50 / 70 10 90 60 70 50
Lewiston 37 55 40 53 38 55 / 70 10 70 50 50 50
Colville 33 53 35 50 30 51 / 20 20 70 40 20 20
Sandpoint 34 46 35 46 30 47 / 50 30 90 80 50 30
Kellogg 34 43 32 43 31 45 / 60 40 90 100 70 60
Moses Lake 35 59 39 59 34 55 / 0 10 30 10 10 10
Wenatchee 38 57 38 56 35 52 / 0 10 20 10 10 10
Omak 34 57 36 55 31 52 / 10 10 20 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Lewis and
Southern Nez Perce Counties.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
301 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE CURRENT FORECAST VERSUS OBSERVATIONS AND
THE LATEST MODEL DATA. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC BAND ANCHORED AT
600-700MB HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTH OF I-90 AS FORECAST WELL BY THE
RAP MODEL GUIDANCE. AS EVENING APPROACHES...A MORE SW-NE ORIENTED
BAND WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH CENTRAL
WI. THIS IS THE BAND CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR OVER MN...WHICH WILL
INTENSIFY AND DROP SOUTHEAST. GETTING SOME MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE S-SW OF LA CROSSE PER OBSERVATIONS AND DUAL POL
CC PRODUCT.
VERY GOOD AND CONSISTENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE COMING IN FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. OVERALL THE HEAVIEST LIQUID AMOUNTS LINE
UP WELL WITH OUR ONGOING FORECAST. THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES
1.3 INCHES OF LIQUID IN THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND. SNOW RATIOS WILL
PROBABLY BE A BIG DETERMINISTIC FACTOR IN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW...WITH 10-11 TO 1 PROBABLY ABOUT RIGHT.
SOUTH OF THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND...LOSS OF ICE ALOFT WILL CAUSE A
FREEZING DRIZZLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS MAY BE AROUND SOME HOURS UNTIL
THE CONVECTIVE SURGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHERE DEEP ICE
WILL AGAIN ENTER THE AREA. THE WARM LAYER ALOFT IN THE SOUTH
REMAINS WARM ENOUGH FOR COMPLETE MELTING AS WELL AND COLD AIR IS
UNDERCUTTING THIS WARM LAYER LATER TONIGHT. WHILE THE ADVISORY
COVERS SOME OF THIS AREA...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE HIGHWAY 18
CORRIDOR FOR MORE ICING OVERNIGHT...AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT...SO
ICING SHOULD BE MINIMIZED THERE. THE NEW FORECAST HAS ALSO SLOWED
THE SNOW EXIT ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL
IN WISCONSIN FOR THE COMMUTE HOURS.
THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN TO SHARE IS THE TREND IN THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE WITH A FURTHER SOUTH /NERN IA-SWRN WI/ SOLUTION TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...AND THE DIMINISHING
FRONTOGENETIC SW-NE BAND OVER SERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. COMPARING
TO HOP WRF SOLUTIONS AND OTHER MESOMODELS...THINKING THE HRRR IS
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
BOTTOM LINE IS TRAVEL WILL GET PRETTY TREACHEROUS TONIGHT WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR IN FRONTOGENETIC
BAND. INSTABILITY IS ALREADY SEEN IN THE RADAR IMAGERY WITH VERY
SHOWERY LOOKS TO ELEMENTS SOUTH OF THE MAIN SNOW BAND. ALSO SEEING
100 C-G LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NEBRASKA...SO WE COULD BE IN FOR
A THUNDERSNOW TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE 10-14 INCH SNOW BAND FROM
SERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. ICING AND SLEET WILL MIX IN TO THE SOUTH
WITH MAYBE A TENTH OF ICING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
SIGNALS CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITHOUT
CHANGES...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LOOKING MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON
IN WISCONSIN.
MONITORING CONTINUES FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME ON MORE
SIGNIFICANT ENERGY SHIFTING THROUGH THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. BOTH THE 23.00Z AND 23.12Z ECMWF AND
23.12 CANADIAN SUGGEST THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS STRONGER
THAN THE GFS SYSTEM OF SOLUTIONS...WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AND
WELL FORMED DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SHIELD WHICH LOOKS TO BE
SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE. THIS COULD AFFECT SOUTHWEST OR CENTRAL
WI DEPENDING ON THE TREND. THE PROGRESSIVE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF
THE GFS HAVE NO WEATHER FOR THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE CARRIED LOW
RANGE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
MAINLY AN IFR PERIOD FOR THE TAF SITES WITH HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF...THUNDER MAY BE ALSO
POSSIBLE NEAR THE AREA. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS AND THIS MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED OVERNIGHT IN THE TAF AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR
ABOUT 10-12 INCHES OF SNOW AT KRST AND 8 INCHES AT KLSE BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM LAST WEEK...AREA RIVERS
CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT BOTH GUTTENBERG AND MCGREGOR AND THE
WISCONSIN RIVER AT MUSCODA.
SNOW MELT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY PROLONG ELEVATED LEVELS IN AREA
RIVERS. ONLY THOSE RIVERS NEAR FLOOD STAGE WOULD POSSIBLY RE-ENTER
FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT THURSDAY
FOR WIZ041>044-053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIZ054-055.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT THURSDAY
FOR MNZ094>096.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT THURSDAY
FOR IAZ008>010-018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT
THURSDAY FOR IAZ011.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IMPACT THE REGION ON
MONDAY, WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 989 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER SRN ONTARIO EARLY
THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW AND WAS
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE, THE BACKDOOR
FRONT THAT STALLED OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT IS FINALLY
STARTING TO PROGRESS NWD THRU SE PA AND C NJ. VERY MILD TEMPS IN THE
60S AND GUSTY SLY WINDS RESIDE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHILE TEMPS
WERE ONLY IN THE 40S UNDER A LIGHT ELY FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE TEMPERATURE AT THE OFFICE RECENTLY JUMPED FROM 45 TO 63 DEGREES
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT A SIMILAR WARM UP FARTHER NORTH INTO
NE PA AND NW NJ ONCE THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVES LATER THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES IN E PA.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG SLY WINDS ACCOMPANYING A LOW-LEVEL
JET STREAK ENHANCES LIFT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR, RAP AND HIRES NCEP WRF ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE A TEMPORARILY BREAK IN THE PRECIP DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING AFTER THE INITIAL OVERRUNNING SHOWERS PROGRESSES TO OUR
EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS THEN FORECAST TO REDEVELOP
TOWARD MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THESE SAME MODELS ALSO SHOW 250-500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A
WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A
SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.
ASSUMING WE GET AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DURING PEAK HEATING, MAX
TEMPS IN THE 70S ARE WELL WITHIN REACH FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS ARE IN THE 60S FARTHER N/W WITH AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. NW
WINDS AND CAA IN ITS WAKE WILL RESULT IN A TEMPS DROPPING STEADILY
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. SUB-FREEZING LOWS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE PA AND NW NJ. LOWS IN THE 40S WILL BE COMMON
EAST OF THE FALL LINE (A FAR CRY FROM THE MILD READINGS IN THE
60S EARLY THIS MORNING).
ASIDE FROM SCT CAA STRATOCU OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, EXPECT LITTLE
ELSE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE START OF THE
EXTENDD PD AND FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE BUILD IN ON
SAT, ANCHORED OVER NERN CANADA SAT NIGHT AND MOVG OFFSHORE ON SUN.
SO, WHILE THE WX WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEEKEND, A PERSISTENT NE TO E
FLOW WILL KEEP IT FEELING COOLER WITH CLOUDS AROUND ESPECIALLY ON
SUN AND NR THE CST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AND MOVES NEWD TWD THE OH VLY AND MID-ATLC ON MON. THIS LOW
WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA MAINLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MON,
BEFORE IT MOVES AWAY. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WRT THIS SYS.
HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FOR MON NIGHT
THRU WED BEFORE MOVG OFFSHORE ON THU. THIS PD WILL FEATURE DRY WX.
BY LATER THU, LOW PRES IN CANADA WILL BRING ANOTHER CDFNT TWD THE
AREA AND RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE.
TEMPS GENLY LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NRML THRU THE PD.TUE WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE CFP. THU CUD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EARLIER FOG AND STRATUS HAS ERODED ACROSS THE NRN TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. HOWEVER,
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THRU DAYBREAK AS SHOWERS
MOVE IN. MAINLY EXPECTING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THESE SHOWERS. WE
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE LLWS IN THE TAFS THRU MID MRNG WITH A 45-55 KT
SLY LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. SLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THIS
MORNING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID
MORNING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO HIGH END MVFR OR VFR
SHORTLY AFTER. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE THIS MRNG
AND EARLY AFTN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. THERE IS A NON-ZERO
CHANCE OF TS WITH THIS CONVECTION BUT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z
TAFS THIS FAR OUT. THE WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE SW THIS MORNING
AND THEN W-NW THIS AFTN IN WAKE OF FROPA. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY AT TIMES BETWEEN 15-25 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...VFR OVERALL. NE WIND SAT THEN BECMG E SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN GENLY AROUND 10 KTS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR/IFR CONDS LOCALLY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MDT CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
SUN NIGHT...CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN LATE AS PRECIP CHCS INCREASE
TWD MON MRNG. MVFR/IFR CONDS PSBL AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MON THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR/IFR MON INTO MON EVE AS LOW PRES BRINGS
PDS OF RAIN, MAINLY THRU ERLY AFTN. CONDS IMPROVE MON EVE TO VFR AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR. HIGH PRES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. GUSTY NW WIND 20 TO 25 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DE BAY AND COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS FOR
TODAY. THE WARM FRONT HAD FINALLY LIFTED NORTH OF OUR WATERS LAST
NIGHT. BEHIND IT, WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 KT TODAY. THE DIRECTION OF
THE WIND WILL INITIALLY BE SLY BUT SHIFT OUT OF THE SW LATER THIS
MRNG AND THEN EVENTUALLY W-NW DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT OFF THE NJ AND DE COAST WILL ADD TO
THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALLER VESSELS.
THE SCA CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY FOR
SEAS AROUND 5-6 FT. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THRUOUT
THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT..A FURTHER EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE DURG THE LATE MRNG ON SAT, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO IT ATTM. OTHERWISE BOTH WIND
AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THRU THE REMAINDER OF SAT.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
MON THRU TUE...SEAS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYS
AND BY LATE MON OR ERLY MON EVE SCA IS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO TUE
ERLY TUE. WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE MON NIGHT INTO ERLY TUE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WINDS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY GUSTY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ENHANCED WINDS APPEAR TO
BE DUE TO THE PASSAGE A GRAVITY WAVE THAT WAS GENERATED BY A LINE
OF STRONG CONVECTION THAT MOVED OFF THE GEORGIA COAST JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 35-45 MPH AT THE CHARLESTON
AIRPORT SINCE 145 AM AND WITH ATMOSPHERE NOW WELL MIXED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE GRAVITY WAVE...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING...THEN STALL OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA AS ITS SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SEVERAL UPSTREAM IMPULSES THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND INTERACT WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE THAT
DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING QLCS TO THE SOUTH LATE
THURSDAY EVENING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE COAST MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS NEAR 60 PERCENT SEEMS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
COVERAGE AND TIMING INCREASES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LATEST TIMING NOTED IN THE
VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SETS...WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER
70S FOR ALL BUT FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE MID 70S LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION IS SLOWER TO FORM OR IF TEMPERATURES
WARM QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE...THEN HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S COULD OCCUR.
MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS YIELD MODEST INSTABILITY TODAY WITH SBCAPE
1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KT COUPLED WITH CALCULATED
DCAPES 700-950 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT LIKELY ATTM...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...IF HIGHS CAN WARM TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THAT AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY EARLY
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MEANDERS EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY ENTER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...SUGGESTING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD POP UP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID
60S.
SATURDAY...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT IN ITS
LOCATION COULD LEAD TO LARGE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY...PEAKING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RIGHT NOW THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
SAVANNAH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BE MUCH
HIGHER IF THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND WE GET MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A DELUGE OF SHORTWAVES LIFT OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THE VORT ENERGY COMBINED WITH INCREASING JET
DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING PWATS WILL YIELD GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. BUMPED UP THE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TO REFLECT THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SUNSHINE.
MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL PUSH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO JUST
OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA IN THE
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS US.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV 09-12Z. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING LOWER ATTM
PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL
IMPACTS AT KCHS/KSAV REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WILL NOT
INCLUDE A MENTION AT EITHER TERMINAL WITH THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...BUT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED WITH THE 12Z CYCLE AFTER
ADDITIONAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS RUNS ARE EVALUATED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO A FRONT STALLING OVER OR
NEAR THE AREA. VFR IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA. LOW-LEVEL
JETTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT WINDS 15-20 KT...EXCEPT
NEAR 15 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEGS.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT MEANDERS INTO THE
FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SPEEDS LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A FRONT STALLS OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/MS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
218 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
THE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SCARCE FOR A WHILE...SO
HAVE DROPPED THUNDER. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GRADUAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT IS ONGOING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1046 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE ONGOING ISL/SCT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA...AS WELL AS IN THE INCOMING LINE OF CONVECTION. AS
EXPECTED...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
HAS LED TO DIMINISHING TREND OF THE LINE. AT THIS POINT...THE IS
BECOMING MORE BROKEN IN NATURE WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND IS CONTINUING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. LOWERED
MENTION OF THUNDER TO ONLY ISOLATED AS THE LINE MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA...WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED AFTER 4Z. HOWEVER...IF THIS
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES...OVERALL POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS
WELL. THERE ARE STILL SOME GUSTS ALONG THIS LINE AS SOME OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE TAPPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SO 20 TO
30 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH AT LEAST 4Z AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK FOR ALL OTHER PARAMETERS
THIS EVENING. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS WELL
ON TRACK WITH THESE CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN
PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. WILL LIKELY UPDATE THE ZFP TO
REFLECT THE CHANGE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH HWO STILL
SEEMS TO BE VALID.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
HAVE BEEN UPDATING POPS AND WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TO
CAPTURE THE MOVEMENT OF THE LINE OF STORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND THE ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE STATE.
EXPECT THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES TOWARDS OUR
AREA WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRIKES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WHILE
GUSTS ALONG THE LINE OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...THERE
REALLY HASN/T BEEN MUCH OTHER IMPACTS REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL KY
THUS FAR. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO WARRANT LETTING OUR LAKE WIND
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8PM. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE CHANGES IN POPS
AND WEATHER WARRANTED A PACKAGE UPDATE. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN
PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
AT MID AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT
THE NORTHERN END OF INDIANA TO EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ON
SOUTHWESTWARD. SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT. THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD OUT OF KY EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WERE STILL KICKING UP AT TIMES AT MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. WITH A NPW FOR
WIND ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW...WITH STILL
SOME SMALL POTENTIAL TO REACH ADVISORY OR LAKE WIND ADVISORY LATE
TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ASIDE FROM CONVECTION...THE
GREATEST WIND THREAT HAS FADED. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY SHOWERS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BRING STRONG
WINDS...AND WE CONTINUE IN A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FROM
SPC.
SHOWERS WILL END WITH FROPA...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP ON FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL PRESENT A FROST THREAT IN OUR COLDER VALLEYS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE PATCHY FROST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND TWO PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE INITIAL BOUT OF RAIN IS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...PRECIPITATION
ONSET WILL BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WITH THE FIRST
SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND 12Z ON SUNDAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO PERHAPS SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL
STEADILY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY
AND THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO OUR EAST...TAKING ITS
LIFT WITH IT.
WE SHOULD THEN SEE AN EXTENDED BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TEMPORARILY SETS UP SHOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS DURING THAT TIME. THE MODELS TRY TO BRING ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. IN GENERAL THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WAS USED TO ADJUST THE
MODEL BLEND FORECAST AS WE ARE NOW IN THE WARM SEASON WITH LESS
COLD AIR TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD. THE FORECAST IS CALLING FOR
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO ENTER EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...AS RIDGES OF HIGH
PRESSURE RULE THE WEATHER ON THOSE DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL COOL OFF
QUITE A BIT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS COOLER AIR SPILLS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM. WE COULD EASILY SEE HIGHS
REACH THE UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THE LOW TO MID
70S ON SUNDAY. THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE WEEK LOOK TO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHEN THE MERCURY MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP DOWN TO
MVFR THROUGH DAWN AS WINDS VEER MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MVFR
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
BREAKING UP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS WILL VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 09Z...WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING THEREAFTER.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1247 AM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2016
Updated the aviation discussion for th 06z TAF issuance.
UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Updated the aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016
The band of showers from Owensboro to Madisonville will slowly
push east northeast out of the region by late this afternoon.
We cannot rule out a few lightning strikes, but any significant
intensification should not occur until it passes out of our area.
Recent shower development along the actual cold front near the
Wabash River should struggle to survive as it moves into a worked
over airmass.
The entire area should be dry by 00Z this evening, but low clouds
will overspread the area behind the front, and linger for much of
the night. West northwest winds will slowly weaken through the
night, but they are not expected to go calm by morning. The
combination of clouds and winds should keep temperatures from
dropping down to the freezing mark and frost from forming in the
morning.
Considerable uncertainty exists in how long clouds may linger
Friday, but tried to lean toward the warm side of guidance for
highs. The surface high will still be in control of the region
Friday night, but winds will not be calm. Temperatures should drop
into the 30s over most of the area, but a freeze or frost is
not likely at this time. Plenty of sunshine and a return to south
winds should allow for a nice warm up on Saturday. More
confidently leaned toward the warm side of the guidance envelope
for highs.
An inverted surface trough will develop southwest to northeast
through the region Saturday night, as our Easter storm system
approaches. We should stay dry through sunrise Sunday morning, but
clouds will be on the increase from the west. Guidance is locked
in to the middle 40s for lows so did not deviate much at all.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016
In the extended forecast period, the ECMWF guidance is still
preferred from previous forecast shifts given it consistency in
space and time across the WFO PAH forecast area. In addition to the
blended guidance, added a little weighting toward the ECMWF solution
with the first system on Sunday...with confidence greater than 50
percent. Have lower confidence on the early onset of precipitation
with the next system next Wednesday.
The pattern has set up with a progressive mean trough over the
conterminous U.S. through the period, with intervening shortwave
ridges. This would place precipitation event over the area about
every 2-3 days.
With the continual changes from warm to cold advection regimes and
mixing, diurnal ranges will be minimized somewhat, reducing the
concern for late night/early morning freeze potential or record
afternoon highs. Although evapotranspiration is increasing this time
of year, have doubt that there will be large scale drying between
systems.
A compact short wave moves through Sunday and Sunday evening, with
some intensification at the low-middle levels of the atmosphere. At
this point, the best potential for thunderstorms seems to be across
the Delta region of Southeast Missouri and West Kentucky, along and
just east of the forecast surface low moving over the area. Given
the likelihood for outdoor activities Sunday, will continue to
highlight in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
The system next Wednesday/Thursday is somewhat less distinct, with
periodic shortwaves generating precipitation in a broad southwest
flow regime.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2016
A large area of remnant MVFR cigs trails behind the departing
system and will pass through the Quad State area this morning.
Expect MVFR cigs to prevail until around sunrise near KCGI/KPAH
and until mid day near KEVV/KOWB. Cigs will fall below 2kft at
times, particularly prevailing closer to the system near
KEVV/KOWB. Cigs will scatter/clear quickly as high pressure moves
in for the day. North winds will develop an easterly component by
mid morning and slowly decrease to AOB 7 kts by afternoon.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION UPDATE...BP2
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1247 AM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2016
Updated the aviation discussion for th 06z TAF issuance.
UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Updated the aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016
The band of showers from Owensboro to Madisonville will slowly
push east northeast out of the region by late this afternoon.
We cannot rule out a few lightning strikes, but any significant
intensification should not occur until it passes out of our area.
Recent shower development along the actual cold front near the
Wabash River should struggle to survive as it moves into a worked
over airmass.
The entire area should be dry by 00Z this evening, but low clouds
will overspread the area behind the front, and linger for much of
the night. West northwest winds will slowly weaken through the
night, but they are not expected to go calm by morning. The
combination of clouds and winds should keep temperatures from
dropping down to the freezing mark and frost from forming in the
morning.
Considerable uncertainty exists in how long clouds may linger
Friday, but tried to lean toward the warm side of guidance for
highs. The surface high will still be in control of the region
Friday night, but winds will not be calm. Temperatures should drop
into the 30s over most of the area, but a freeze or frost is
not likely at this time. Plenty of sunshine and a return to south
winds should allow for a nice warm up on Saturday. More
confidently leaned toward the warm side of the guidance envelope
for highs.
An inverted surface trough will develop southwest to northeast
through the region Saturday night, as our Easter storm system
approaches. We should stay dry through sunrise Sunday morning, but
clouds will be on the increase from the west. Guidance is locked
in to the middle 40s for lows so did not deviate much at all.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016
In the extended forecast period, the ECMWF guidance is still
preferred from previous forecast shifts given it consistency in
space and time across the WFO PAH forecast area. In addition to the
blended guidance, added a little weighting toward the ECMWF solution
with the first system on Sunday...with confidence greater than 50
percent. Have lower confidence on the early onset of precipitation
with the next system next Wednesday.
The pattern has set up with a progressive mean trough over the
conterminous U.S. through the period, with intervening shortwave
ridges. This would place precipitation event over the area about
every 2-3 days.
With the continual changes from warm to cold advection regimes and
mixing, diurnal ranges will be minimized somewhat, reducing the
concern for late night/early morning freeze potential or record
afternoon highs. Although evapotranspiration is increasing this time
of year, have doubt that there will be large scale drying between
systems.
A compact short wave moves through Sunday and Sunday evening, with
some intensification at the low-middle levels of the atmosphere. At
this point, the best potential for thunderstorms seems to be across
the Delta region of Southeast Missouri and West Kentucky, along and
just east of the forecast surface low moving over the area. Given
the likelihood for outdoor activities Sunday, will continue to
highlight in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
The system next Wednesday/Thursday is somewhat less distinct, with
periodic shortwaves generating precipitation in a broad southwest
flow regime.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2016
A large area of remnant MVFR cigs trails behind the departing
system and will pass through the Quad State area this morning.
Expect MVFR cigs to prevail until around sunrise near KCGI/KPAH
and until mid day near KEVV/KOWB. Cigs will fall below 2kft at
times, particularly prevailing closer to the system near
KEVV/KOWB. Cigs will scatter/clear quickly as high pressure moves
in for the day. North winds will develop an easterly component by
mid morning and slowly decrease to AOB 7 kts by afternoon.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION UPDATE...BP2
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1255 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated 1140 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Updated the forecast to include patchy drizzle in low clouds for the
overnight hours. Radar imagery downstream indicates streaks of very
light precip which is likely drizzle. 0Z NAM soundings indicate
good low level moisture for drizzle through Fri morning.
Updated 911 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Convection continues along a cold front this evening, which now has
passed over I-65 and is heading into the Bluegrass region. Storms
have shown a gradual weakening trend over the past few hours and
expect that to continue with the loss of heating. Surface temps
only in the upper 50s to low 60s ahead of the convection is likely
not lending to much, if any, surface-based instability.
Nevertheless, some gusts of 30-35 mph and brief heavy downpours
remain on the table for the next couple hours in the Bluegrass,
before all convection pushes east. Did go ahead and up sky cover
tonight across the region as there is quite an expansive shield of
stratus upstream rotating into the Ohio Valley.
Updated 622 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Quick update early this evening to account for the latest storm
trends. Convection has blossomed along the cold front, now pushing
across northern portions of I-65. The storms have remained strong,
but sub-severe given instability continues to remain meager. In
fact, where convection has developed is the location that has yet to
see much in the way of rain so far today so some surface-based
instability has been able to develop. The storms over the next
couple of hours will be capable of producing some small hail and
winds to 45 mph. Can`t rule out a rogue severe cell, but think that
threat has likely already peaked along with the diurnal heating
cycle.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
The concerns this afternoon will continue to be the potential for
severe weather, as well as gradient wind gusts. Gradient winds have
been gusting mainly in the upper 30s to around 40. However, there
have been some gusts as high as 45 mph. The wind advisory continues
until 23Z, but will continue to monitor gusts as it may be able to
be let go before then.
The rain that has moved across central KY today has helped to
stabilize the area. However, SPC mesoanalysis does show an area of
slight instability across west central KY. In addition the 0-6 km
shear values are around 60 knots across the region. Mesoscale models
do suggest that the instability will spread eastward this afternoon
into western portions of the forecast area before weakening towards
the early evening hours. The HRRR continues to show strengthening of
the line of storms right along the cold front into the evening
hours. All things considered, there is still a slight chance for
some strong to severe storms this afternoon with hail and wind
gusts.
The storms should move out of the area by around 03Z or so with some
light showers continuing across the Bluegrass overnight. Rain should
move out completely by daybreak Friday, with dry conditions
expected Friday night.
Temperatures will fall in the wake of the cold front overnight into
the mid 30s to lower 40s. Despite the low temps, frost formation is
not expected as winds will remain elevated overnight. Highs tomorrow
will be much cooler, in the lower to mid 50s. Lows Friday night will
dip into the mid to upper 30s. With light winds and high pressure,
some frost will be possible early Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016
Saturday will remain dry with high pressure ridging in from the
northeast. Temperature will warm into the 60s under mostly sunny
skies. Lows Saturday night will be much warmer, in the 40s areawide.
A trough will dig into the Plains on Sunday and cross the lower Ohio
Valley Sunday night. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
with this system still looks to be late Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. Given the dry weather for much of the day ahead of this
system, temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The
severe potential does not look overly impressive with this system,
but a few strong storms will not be out of the question. The rain
should move out on Monday morning.
Tuesday through Wednesday look to be dry as high pressure builds
into the area. In the wake of the system Sunday night, temps on
Monday will be back in the 50s. We will then see a warm up through
mid week with temps back into the mid to upper 60s. The next chance
for rain will come Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1250 AM EDT Fri Mar 25 2016
Cold front has pushed on into eastern Kentucky, leaving the
terminals in a brief post-frontal window of VFR. However, a broad
stratus shield associated with the upper low lurks just to our west
and extends well back into Missouri. Cold pool aloft will keep the
stratus in play overnight and even well into Friday afternoon.
Will take ceilings down to high-end MVFR fairly quickly, with a
continued WNW wind surge keeping gusts just shy of 20 kt for a
couple more hrs. Expect SDF and LEX to go into fuel-alternate
shortly before daybreak, while closer to the edge of the cloud
shield, BWG stays just above 2000 feet. Low ceilings hold through
midday, with some improvement early in the afternoon before finally
clearing out late afternoon. Light NW winds by daybreak will slowly
clock around to NE by late afternoon/early evening as surface high
pressure continues to build.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD/AMS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
429 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING
INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SN
YDAY OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA. THE INCOMING AIRMASS ABOVE ASSOCIATED
SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM JAMES BAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
RATHER DRY PER THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS...WHERE THE PWATS WERE GENERALLY
ABOUT 0.20 INCH /ABOUT 65 PCT OF NORMAL/. ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS LINGER
OVER THE FAR ERN CWA...THE COMBINATION OF THE LLVL ACYC FLOW/LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS RESULTING IN MOCLR SKIES W TO NW
MN...WHERE SOME MID AND HI CLDS ARE PRESENT IN THE WAA PATTERN AHEAD
OF A PAIR OF SHRTWVS...ONE MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS/ FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPR MI HAVE FALLEN AS
LO AS THE SINGLE NUMBERS EARLY THIS MRNG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY UNDER
PASSSING HI PRES RDG AND THEN POPS/PTYPE LATE TNGT AS THE WAA
PATTERN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM SHRTWVS FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING RDG INTO
THE WRN GREAT LKS.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM HI/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE CWA FM THE
W...THE VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS WL ENSURE
DRY WX. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI PRES
SHIFTING OVER LK HURON LATE IN THE DAY IS FCST TO ADVECT SOME WARMER
AIR INTO THE UPR LKS AND LIFT H85 TEMPS TO ARND 0C BY 00Z SAT.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 40S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE
OF THE GREAT LKS...MAINLY LK MI.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME DPVA AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SRN SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS /H825-625/ MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA
OVERNGT AS SFC LO PRES TROF/COLD FNT MOVES INTO WRN LK SUP BY 12Z
SAT. HOW QUICKLY THIS DYNAMIC SUPPORT CAN OVERCOME THE LLVL DRY AIR
TO PRODUCE PCPN IS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES SOMEWHAT
SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THUS BREAKS PCPN OUT A LITTLE
FASTER... BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH
IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS THAT WL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA...
WL TEND TOWARD THE SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM/
LOCAL WRF-ARW. PTYPE FCST IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...BUT FCST THERMAL
FIELDS SUG A MIX OF RA AND SN WL BE PSBL. CONCERN IS LINGERING NEAR
SFC DRY AIR COULD ALLOW FOR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LOWER WBLB
TEMPS AOB 32F. IF PCPN IS IN THE FORM OF RA...SOME FREEZING RA COULD
OCCUR. THE GOOD NEWS IS QPF THRU 12Z SAT WL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...SO ANY SN/ICE ACCUM WL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE NRN STREAM DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES...WILL
GIVE WAY TO RIDGING AS A SRN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES AND SFC TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD THE WRN LAKES FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING
PCPN CHANCES INTO THE WEST LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY
SAT AFTEROON. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND 285K-
290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SO...MUCH OF THE PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER DIURNAL WARMING PUSHES SFC TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING WITH RAIN AS THE MAIN PCPN TYPE...GIVEN THE FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICTION OF A MODEST ELEVATED WARM LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FZRA REMAINS FOR EARLY SATURDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF. EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INFLOW TO
SUPPORT QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE. AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A LAGGING SHRTWV LIFTS ENE FROM IA/WI
THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE.
SUN-TUE...AFTER ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST DEPARTS...EXPECT
CLEARING AND DRYING WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WEAK
NRN STREAM SHRTWVS MAY BRUSH THE NRN LAKES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ANY PCPN. INCRASING WAA AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS ON TUE WILL
WARMER AIR TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO UPPER MI.
WED-THU...SW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OOF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WRN
LAKES WITH PCPN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE WED INTO THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE S AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS TONIGHT UNDER A BIT TIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THRU THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AHEAD OF A HI
PRES BUILDING INTO NW ONTARIO. AS THIS HI CENTER MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. A STRONGER S-SE
WIND UP TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP ON TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
HI CENTER TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1150 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND THEN TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
WE HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES A LITTLE WITH THE 8 PM EXPIRATION TIME
COMING UP HERE SOON AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW COMING IN THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE DROPPED THE SE CORNER OF THE WARNING WITH LITTLE
ONGOING IMPACTS THERE AND LITTLE SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
IN THE WARNING...WE HAVE EXTENDED IT UNTIL 1 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR 1-2
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TOP OF THE ACCUMULATED ICE UP THERE.
DEFORMATION SNOW ACROSS WISCONSIN IS NOW MOVING OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS
SNOW WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...BUT IT WILL CREATE SOME ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WITH ADDITIONAL
WEIGHT ON TOP OF STRESSED TREE LIMBS...AND CREATE MORE SLICK ROADS
WITH TEMPS FALLING. THIS SHOULD ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NE BY
1 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
WE WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUE AS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
FREEZING. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ICING...BUT WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND ICE COVERED TREES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH INTO
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A LINE OF LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THERE.
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH THE HRRR CONSISTENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IN
BRINGING A BAND OF DEFORMATION AXIS SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES. THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ON
THE ROADS AFTER DARK AS TEMPERATURES DROP BLO FREEZING.
ONCE THAT GOES BY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS ENDING BY 12Z FRIDAY. FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM LOW IS APPROACHING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT RAIN OR MIX ACROSS THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
WE ARE MONITORING TWO SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST.
ONE IS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON SUN-MON. THE OTHER IS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR LATE WED-THU.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST DAY IS FOR DIMINISHING PCPN CHCS FOR THE
SYSTEM FOR SUN-MON. THIS TREND IS THE RESULT OF MORE SEPARATION OF
THE SYSTEMS FROM SAT THROUGH SUN. WE WILL SEE THE FRONT FROM THE SAT
SYSTEM BE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE TRIES TO MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT ON SUN-MON. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP PCPN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WE HAVE KEPT RAIN CHCS IN THE FCST INTO MON...BUT HAVE LOWERED
THEM A BIT. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT AS THERE IS
POTENTIAL OF ENOUGH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
THE PERIOD FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH
MODERATING TEMPS. WE WILL SEE A NICE AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN LOWS TO OUR EAST AND WEST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BEGINNING ON WED AND BECOME MORE LIKELY
BY THU. THE STRONG UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. WILL START TO EJECT SHORT WAVES TO THE NE TOWARD THE STATE. THE
INITIAL WAVE EJECTING INTO THE AREA ON WED WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY THU AS BETTER MOISTURE
WILL HAVE MOVED FURTHER NORTH AHEAD OF SUBSEQUENT WAVES. WE SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY MILD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AND APPROACHING 60 BEING
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND
CEILINGS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. CEILINGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM AROUND 1500FT OVERNIGHT TO 2500FT FRIDAY
MORNING AFTER 12Z. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...CEILINGS SHOULD BE
SCATTERING OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHTER WINDS MOVES IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF
LOWER MICHIGAN. 24 HOUR TOTALS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED BY 8
AM FRIDAY. RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE IN THE KALAMAZOO...
GRAND... AND MUSKEGON RIVER BASINS. NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE COMMON
OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN LOWLAND AREAS ADJACENT TO RIVER BANKS. MORE
IMPACTFUL MINOR FLOODING ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>045.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
356 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY, THEN STALL
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS HAVE SKIRTED THE COAST BUT OUR CWA
HAS GENERALLY BEEN DRY AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAP/NSSL WRF AND HRRR ALL SHOW LINE OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST AROUND 11/12Z THIS MORNING BUT WITH NO
ACTIVITY ON RADAR...THINK THAT IS OVERDONE. STILL LOOKING FOR A
LINE OF CONVECTION DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REMOVED OUR AREA FROM THE
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AND DROPPED US BACK TO GENERAL THUNDER.
STABILITY PARAMETERS SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED SHEAR. THINK THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE WARM...GIVEN THE WARM
START THIS MORNING...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S IN MOST
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS
LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OFFSHORE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN AS LOWS DROP INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF EASTERN NC
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AGAIN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
EASTERN NC SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS IN MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS/WX SAT/SUN AND MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TRANSIENT UPPER FEATURES. TEMPS SATURDAY A
BIT COOLER DUE TO COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH UPPER
60S INLAND. TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG
THE COAST ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE SUNDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH TIMING OF
WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM, MEAGER
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH MOST OF IT ELEVATED IN NATURE SO
NO SEVERE EXPECTED. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUES, YIELDING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FIRST HALF OF MONDAY THOUGH TREND
WILL BE FOR IMPROVING WEATHER AND PERHAPS A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AS
EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN WSW WITH COLUMN DRYING
PROMOTING WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S (UPPER 60S OBX).
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN INCREASING LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL YIELD HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND
TO 60S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 40S INLAND TO
AROUND 50 ACROSS THE BEACHES/OBX. NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEMS MAY AFFECT THE AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THUNDER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM THURSDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES THIS TAF CYCLE. CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z BEFORE BECOMING
VFR AGAIN AFTER 15Z. SCATTERED SHRA MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS AFTER 09Z...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AFTER 15Z. ISOLD
TSTMS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME TO WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS. S-SW WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT
ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, THEN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT IN MVFR
CEILINGS BEHIND A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS LATE MONDAY WITH SUB-VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD/ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORIES WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR GUSTY S/SW WINDS 15-25
KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 8 FEET. CURRENT OFFSHORE PLATFORMS SHOWING 6
FEET AT THE BUOY 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET AND 8 FEET AT
DIAMOND BUOY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY. FOLLOWED LATEST
SWAN/NWPS FOR SHORT-TERM WAVE HEIGHTS WITH 5-8 FEET...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...DROPPING TO 4-6 FEET BY LATER
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS, AND SEAS
REMAINING ELEVATED ABOVE 6 FT ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUNDAY AS
WINDS DIMINISH VEERING TO EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT ON
MONDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 6 FT AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. WINDS VEER NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTH
ON TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS AND 6+ FT SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO
DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS 2-4
FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
355 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON
THE FRONT ALONG AND WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. ATTENDANT
TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MTNS... WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY STRONG WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION
WITHIN THE 50KT LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING OF THE FRONT FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN A DUD SO FAR EAST OF
THE MTNS. MAY STILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK THROUGH DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOME WEAK ELEVATED FINALLY DEVELOPS.
THE LLJ JET SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING WITH TRAILING SFC COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EVENING... FROM 21-00Z IN THE WEST TO 06-09Z IN THE EAST...WHICH
IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR TREND
WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
FRONT CERTAINLY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER STABILIZING WHAT WAS ALREADY EXPECTED TO BE
A WEAKLY BUOYANT AIRMASS. A WEAKER CONVECTIVE SIGNAL CAN BE SEEN IN
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF NMM AND ARW SIMULATIONS AS WELL...WITH THE
LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAVING DOWNGRADED THE MARGINAL OVER CENTRAL NC
TO GENERAL THUNDER. EXPECT A NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT...WITH ISOLATED
THREAT FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER CELL STILL
A POSSIBILITY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON BREAKS IN CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80S EAST. CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY EVENING WILL SUPPORT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S NW TO
LOWER 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...
DOWNSTREAM OF A PAIR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL US... A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTING FROM THE GULF NEWD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL LIFT ATOP THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR
SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK ACROSS...WITH BULK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CLOSE TO THE COAST.
MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK QUITE CHALLENGING WITH A MOSTLY DRY CAD
AIRMASS IN PLACE ON THE NORTH-COOL SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHALLOW OVERRUNNING WILL SUPPORT STRATUS
LAYER OPAQUE ENOUGH TO MODULATE DAYTIME HEATING.
HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...AND MAY NEED TO KNOCK DOWN
FURTHER IF TRENDS CONTINUE. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 60S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...
SUN AND MON: A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOVE
NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THE CAD AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
LINGER...AT LEAST ACROSS THE FAR NW...INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM ERODES IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS CAPPING OUT
IN THE MID 60S NORTH...LOW 70S SOUTH. THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT WRT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN THAT REGARD HAS INCREASED. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA WILL GET ON MON AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST. GENERALLY...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH AND THE RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MON...WITH MON NIGHT BEING DRY AND TEMPS
LOWERING. MON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SE. MON
NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT: A RETURN OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER
FOR MID-WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND
RIDGING ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TUE AND WED. LOWS
MODERATING FROM UPPER LOW 40S TUE NIGHT TO MID TO UPPER 40S WED
NIGHT.
THU AND FRI: ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY
EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU THROUGH FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 158 AM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 50 KT LLJ
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...IN ADDITION TO A PERIOD OF
MVFR STRATUS THROUGH MID MORNING.
ANY SUB-VFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 18-21Z IN THE
WEST TO 03-06Z IN THE EAST. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS
HIGHEST AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT KFAY/KRWI FOR STORMS. ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. OTHERWISE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE 12-16 KT RANGE... WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK: THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHALLOW OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1153 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
RAIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO REACH THE GROUND IN THE DEVILS LAKE
AREA FROM THE LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH...SO BUMPED UP POPS.
ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AS READINGS HAVE BEEN STAYING IN THE
40S IN THAT AREA. THINK THEY SHOULD HANG ONTO MILD READINGS A BIT
LONGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE EAST HAS FALLEN INTO
THE LOWER 30S...BUT GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN THINK THEY
WILL START TO RISE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP COMING IN SHOULD
START OUT AS RAIN BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH
TOWARDS MORNING AS THE FRONT SAGS DOWN. KEPT THE THEME OF A
DUSTING BY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT SO
FAR OBS SITES AND WEB CAMS SHOW NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND.
BETTER RETURNS TO THE WEST NORTH OF MINOT...AND PERSONAL WEATHER
STATIONS SHOW SOME PRECIP GETTING TO THE GROUND. HRRR HAS
ACCUMULATING PRECIP ENTERING THE FAR NORTHWEST AROUND 05Z...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL KEEP THE POPS COMING IN MOSTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER ON
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL THINK WE SHOULD SEE SOME NICE DROPS WITH
CLEAR SKIES BEFORE CLOUDS COMING IN FOR THE EAST AND WITH THE COLD
FRONT COMING INTO THE NORTHWEST. WILL KEEP OUR LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
NO CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH
MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON SKIES WERE STILL
MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FA WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE. STILL
HAVE SOME SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS OVER NORTHWEST MN. GOOD WESTERLY
SFC FLOW OVER WESTERN ND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC LOW...WHERE TEMPS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 50S. THE SFC LOW IS OVER SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY
12 FRI. A BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM THIS LOW WHICH WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS UP INTO NORTHWEST MN BY 12Z FRI...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE KDVL
REGION INTO NW MN. THIS PCPN WOULD GENERALLY FALL AS SNOW WITH A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY MORNING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD ON
FRI...ENDING UP BY 00Z SAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL AGAIN OCCUR ALONG/BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...SO
THEY WILL SINK FROM AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO A VALLEY
CITY TO FARGO TO KPKD LINE BY 00Z SAT. TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH
DURING THE DAY FRI TO CHANGE THIS PCPN FROM LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PCPN...OVER TO LIGHT RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE EXPECTED PCPN
FROM THE EVENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRI (EXCEPTING THE FAR
SOUTH AND SE FA)...WHICH WILL THEREFORE LIMIT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. COULD BE A LITTLE WINDY ON FRI AFTERNOON AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS TEMPS FALL FRI
NIGHT THE PCPN WILL CHANGE BACK TO A MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. AN INCH OR
SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER IN SAT MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL MN...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. HIGHS LOOK COOL ON SAT BUT THEY DO WARM UP A LITTLE MORE
BY SUNDAY. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SFC LOW AND A LITTLE
LIGHT PCPN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH SOME INCONSISTENCY ON THIS WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
BUILD AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY WILL RETROGRADE INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO AS SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA AND
INTO ONTARIO. SPLIT FLOW WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH
NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES.
THE GFS WAS A FASTER AND A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF.
WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MON THROUGH THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
ALL SITES ARE VFR...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO
KDVL. THERE SHOULD BE A DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AND A COLD FRONT COMES
DOWN...ALTHOUGH EXACT PARTICULARS ARE HARD TO NAIL DOWN. HAVE CIGS
GOING MVFR AS THE FRONT COMES DOWN...STARTING AROUND 11-12Z IN THE
NORTHWEST TO NEAR MID DAY AT KFAR. SOME LOWER 3-5SM VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND SOME LOWER VIS IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT WILL ADD IT AS IT GETS CLOSER. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THEN BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS IN THE BACK HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY TO VFR AT SOME SITES IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
156 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS AND WINDS FOR SLOWER OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF FRONT. THE
WIND SHIFT WAS JUST APPROACHI8NG THE OHIO RIVER AS OF 06Z.
1100 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE MORE SPUNKY AS THEY MOVE INTO A
FAVORABLE 45 KT 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR REGION...HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
LOW TOPS AND LACK OF LIGHTNING...THE HODOGRAPHS IN THIS AREA ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK
ROTATION...BUT SO FAR DO NOT THINK ENOUGH CAPE TO WARRANT ANY
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. SOME OF THE GUSTS FROM THESE SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN IMPRESSIVE IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN FOCUS FOR NEAR TERM FORECAST IS COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ONLY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS...AND CAPE IS MINIMAL. THE
NAM WHICH OFTEN RUNS HIGH ON CAPE IS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 300J/KG
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND HAS MOST OF THAT BEHIND
THIS FIRST LINE -- CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. DID KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTIONED BUT NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THIS FAR EAST. WITH DECENT FLOW IN
PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
CELLS. PWATS POOL UP TO AROUND 1.25IN WITH THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND
AS WELL...SO BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
TRIED TO SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND AND THE
SECONDARY BAND WITH THE COLD FRONT...PWATS SHOWING THIS AS WELL
WITH A QUICK DIP UNDER 1.0IN BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING UNTIL THIS
SECONDARY BAND PASSES...BUT WITH THIS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT
TIMING IS NOT IDEAL.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND LINGERS
THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE WISE...HELD TEMPS UP TONIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES USING A CONSENSUS BLEND...AND THE HRRR AS FAR OUT AS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DOMINATING FEATURE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR MOVES IN...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT GETS
PUSHED SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN DURING SATURDAY ON SOUTHEAST
FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT EAST FACING SLOPES OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
HOWEVER NO PRECIP WITH THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL
SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SATURDAY.
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE SATURDAY...LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN ON
THE EAST FACING SLOPES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARMER DESPITE THE
CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT OUT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY AND MILDER NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM COMES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE
SUNDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE DIVERGENT ON THE
STRENGTH...TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW COMING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. THE EURO MODEL IS MORE WRAPPED UP AND
MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE
OPEN AND FASTER. WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOWN BY THE
MODELS...THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND FASTER SOLUTION OF THE MAJORITY OF
THE MODELS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THUS...USING GFS AS A
GUIDE. I HAVE CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY DAYS END.
STILL...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY FLOW TO REACH INTO THE
70S MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN LOW LANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE...WITH COOLER...AND
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY..PRECIPITATION.WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...GENERATING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAVE FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SHRA...LOWERING
TO MVFR IN ITS WAKE WITH THE WIND SHIFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRI...WITH MVFR IN STRATOCU AND
DRIZZLE/MIST.
LIGHT S SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOME LIGHT W IN ITS WAKE
OVERNIGHT. STRONG S FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS TO
MODERATE W BEHIND IT BY DAWN...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT W DURING THE
DAY FRI.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CAT MAY GO IFR OR LOWER THAN
FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 03/25/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M L L L L M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/JW/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/JW/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL STALL
NEAR THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. AFTER THE
LOW PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS
POSITIONED FROM BIRMINGHAM...RUNNING NE OVER THE INTERSECTION OF
AL/GA/TN...NORTH ACROSS E. TN. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TN...WITH A
PATCH OF RAIN TRACKING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC. HRRR RUNS
AT 5Z AND 6Z HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THE PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IS LIKELY PEAKING ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT AROUND DAY
BREAK...REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A FEW SHOWERS TRIGGER WITH AFTERNOON
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. A WIDER VIEW SHOWS LARGE BANDS OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GOM AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL.
GIVEN THE RECENT RADAR TRENDS...RUNS OF HRRR...AND LARGE SCALE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...I WILL LOWER POPS TO SCHC TO CHC OVER THE CWA
TODAY. THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE UNFAVORABLE...I WILL REMOVE
MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 70S EAST
OF THE MTNS.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS TO COASTAL AREAS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTH THE REGION WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD YIELD LIGHT NE WINDS BY LATE TONIGHT. I WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY WITH VARYING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50S EAST OF
I-85.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS TRICKY FOR
SATURDAY...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A CONTINUATION OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY. THE
OPERATIONAL NAM STILL DOES NOT TAKE THE FRONT AS FAR TO THE
EAST/SOUTH AS THE OTHER MODELS...SO WHEN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS
ON SATURDAY...THE OP-NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP. THIS
WOULD HAPPEN AT A TIME WHEN A SURFACE HIGH IS STILL IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO RESULT IN A CLASSIC WEDGE.
PRECIP WOULD NOT BE MUCH...BUT IT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO LOCK IN A COOL
AIR MASS...MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT FARTHER EAST...AND ARE NOT
NEARLY AS PRODUCTIVE WITH WEAK LIFT THAT BEGINS ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS RUNS...THE SREF SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS FAVORING
THE DRIER SOLUTION. PROBLEM IS...THE TREND ON THE GEFS IS FOR MORE
MEMBERS TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS RAISES THE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TEMP FCST...AND HAVE NUDGED THE HIGH TEMP DOWN A
BIT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE KEEPING THE POP FAIRLY LOW FOR THE
TIME BEING. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
PRODUCTIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO EXPECT
PRECIP TO BE DEVELOPING/SPREADING NE FROM GEORGIA AT DAYBREAK. THE
PRECIP PROB WILL ONLY INCREASE FROM THERE AS FORCING INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE REACH A MAXIMUM CENTERED AROUND 00Z MONDAY. FOR THE TIME
BEING...THE PRECIP PROB IS HELD IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY MAINLY BY
CONSENSUS WITH NEIGHBORS...BUT SUSPECT THIS WILL BE BUMPED UP TO
CATEGORICAL FOR SOME LENGTH OF TIME LATE SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
CARRIED OFF TO THE E/NE EARLY IN THE DAY. SO...PRECIP CHANCES
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE TN BORDER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO COME AROUND TO
W/NW BY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AFFORD A SIGNIFICANT REBOUND OF
TEMPS...BACK TO SOMETHING MORE THAN 5 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY IN-LINE WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST...SO FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. THE MODELS AGREE
THAT THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH UPPER
RIDGING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...SUPPORTING HIGH
PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...
PUSHING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THUS...
EXPECT WE WIL HAVE A TURN BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARMING TREND AFTER THAT. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF COMING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH A MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A FRONT LAYING OUT ON THE W SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 5Z INDICATED THAT
THE SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN TN AND NW GA...SLIDING
STEADILY EAST. SFC OBSERVATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SHOWED GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOW CLOUD HEIGHTS DESCENDING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...LOWEST AROUND DAWN. I WILL TIME ALL TERMINALS TO
DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 7Z TO 9Z. KCLT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 12Z TO 14Z...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO. RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
DAYLIGHT HOURS. RADAR TRENDS AND CAMS INDICATED THAT THE BEST CHC
FOR RA WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS KAVL TO HKY...BETWEEN 8Z TO 11Z.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE SW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KAVL WILL MAINTAIN A NNW
WIND...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85
CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND THUS RESTRICTIONS INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z
KCLT HIGH 87% HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 93% HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 77% HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 82% HIGH 89% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 95% HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 93% HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
344 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THIS FRONT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL PUSH EAST
CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE
CONTINUED TO DRY UP CROSSING THE RIDGES GIVEN DRY AIR AND NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW BANDS OR SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNRISE MAINLY WEST. MOST PRECIP SHOULD THEN FADE OUT LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE FRONT CROSSES PER LATEST HRRR WITH CLOUDS DECREASING
CENTRAL SECTIONS AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER MOISTURE
LIKELY TO LINGER OVER UPSLOPE WESTERN SECTIONS UNDER NW FLOW AND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE BOUNDARY CLEARS.
DESPITE THIS...STILL EXPECTING SOME SUN IN ALL SECTIONS LATER IN THE
DAY GIVEN HEATING AND DRY ADVECTION. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PIEDMONT IF THE FRONT SLOWS EVEN MORE TO POP ADDED
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SO INCLUDED LOW POPS THERE. OTRW CUT OUT POPS
ELSEWHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE LEANING ON THE SIDE OF THE WARMER
MAV MOS ESPCLY EAST GIVEN CURRENT WARM READINGS...AND IDEA THAT MOST
WEAK COOL ADVECTION WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTHWEST LATER ON.
FRONT SLOWS UP JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS THAT MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER
EASTERN SECTIONS. ALSO FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTH/NE THIS EVENING AND
THEN SE ACROSS THE SW LATE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WEDGING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THINKING THAT WILL REMAIN DRY WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP SOUTHERN SECTIONS
SO TRENDING MORE PC EXCEPT CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH
COOLING TO GET LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY FROST HEADLINES IN FAR SW VA AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH A COOL NORTHEAST WIND TO START THIS
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND OVERRUNNING CIRRUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KEPT SATURDAY TEMPERATURES UNDER GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL LEVELS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND ALONG WITH
INCREASE LOW CLOUDS...WILL HAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD
IN THE 40S AND ABOVE GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY FOR TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE
DISPLAYING A SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE VA/NC COAST AND HAVE REMOVED
THE WEDGE FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THIS
REFLECTION AND PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA WILL
ENHANCE THIS WEDGE SUNDAY. FURTHERMORE...WITH NO PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE WEDGE...WE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE MET...WHICH IS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE MODELS.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNIFORM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE WEDGE
MAY ERODE SOME TOWARDS THE BLUEFIELD AND MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AREAS TO
POSSIBLE HIT 70F SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ADVANCE
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THE WEDGE OUT OF THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS BEGIN TO PHASE ON MONDAY
AS BOTH LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES MERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE WEDGE
BREAKS AND COLD AIR DOES NOT START MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TROF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ECMWF HAS A SHORT WAVE PUSHING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC WAS FAVORING THE TIMING AND MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY FOR RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AND INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COOLEST MORNING OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1237 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER AS MOISTURE INCREASES
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER
APPEARS GIVEN LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE THAT MOST CIGS WILL STAY VFR
UNTIL LATE WHEN LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VA FALL INTO MVFR
OR WORSE BY DAYBREAK. WHILE LOCATIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP THE CERTAINTY DECREASES BEYOND THE BLUE
RIDGE. MAINTAINED SHORT PERIOD OF PRECIP AT KDAN AND KLYH BASED
ON LATEST RUN OF HRRR BUT LEFT MOSTLY VFR VSBYS GIVEN LIGHT NATURE
TO ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND THOSE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN
MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LINGERING UPSLOPE MOISTURE
THERE. COULD SEE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE KDAN-
KLYH CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEHIND THE LINE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT STILL SOME CHANCE FOR GUSTS TOM0RROW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD WORK TO
SLOWLY RETURN MOST SITES WITH LOW CIGS BACK TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD BRING A THREAT FOR SUB-VFR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY. WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
LIGHT AND PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE AND
EVEN HIGHER WHERE SHOWERS PASS ACROSS. HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1/10 INCH IN MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS COULD AGAIN LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ONCE THE FRONT
CROSSES AND WINDS TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING TRAJECTORY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD ONLY BE 20 TO 25 MPH AT MOST
JUST IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...HUMIDITY COULD AGAIN DROP TO
AROUND 30 PERCENT IF NOT LOWER IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED.
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A BIT MORE
RAINFALL ALONG WITH COOLER CONDITIONS UNDER CLOUD COVER LONGER
WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE FIRE THREAT TO SOME DEGREE. THEREFORE
GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE TODAY...PLAN TO ONLY HEADLINE THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL LOW HUMIDITY...AND SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITHOUT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR NOW PENDING COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/JR/PH
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
100 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THIS FRONT
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...
RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING THE HRRR QUITE WELL...WHICH
SHOWS A CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND OF THE FRONTAL ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. THE FIRST
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BEFORE EVEN
REACHING THE I-77 CORRIDOR WITH REALLY NO THUNDER MAKING IT MUCH
PAST MIDDLE TN WITH THAT ACTIVITY. TWO OTHER NARROW LINES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FORMED ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT BACK
IN EASTERN KY LIFTING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...ALSO PER HRRR. BOTH
THE HRRR AND NCEP WRF SHOW VERY LITTLE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT
THE RNK CWA. A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP IN THE
GSP/CLT AREA AND TRANSLATE NORTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHICH MAY BE THE ONLY WAY PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO
THAT PART OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SIGNS...HOWEVER...THAT THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY HANG UP SOME ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST AND THE BEST SUPPORT LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS COULD DELAY CLEARING AND PERHAPS EVEN RESULT IN
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE PIEDMONT AS LATE AS EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES TO POPS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN...HAVE GREATLY REDUCED POPS AND QPF
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
HOLDING TOGETHER PER MESO-MODEL RUNS IS LOW AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS DEFINITELY SUPPORT LESS POPS/QPF AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURE IS BASICALLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY RUNNING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED...SO MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE INCREASED
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT...WILL REDUCE THE FIRE
DANGER THREAT SO THAT NO HEADLINES PERTAINING TO FIRE WEATHER ARE
NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO NOT PUSH THE
COOLER AIR MASS COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT VERY FAR SOUTH AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUITE A BIT.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT AND MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WEDGES DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY WHICH BRINGS THE WINDS AROUND
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE. SATURDAYS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER MAXIMUMS...SIMILAR TO THE
MET GUIDANCE.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE AFTER 00Z MON/7PM SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TROF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ECMWF BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE LOW
TRACKS TOWARD NEW JERSEY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC WAS FAVORING THE
TIMING AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE HIGH MOVES
FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY FOR RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF AND INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE BETTER
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1237 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER AS MOISTURE INCREASES
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER
APPEARS GIVEN LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE THAT MOST CIGS WILL STAY VFR
UNTIL LATE WHEN LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VA FALL INTO MVFR
OR WORSE BY DAYBREAK. WHILE LOCATIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP THE CERTAINTY DECREASES BEYOND THE BLUE
RIDGE. MAINTAINED SHORT PERIOD OF PRECIP AT KDAN AND KLYH BASED
ON LATEST RUN OF HRRR BUT LEFT MOSTLY VFR VSBYS GIVEN LIGHT NATURE
TO ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND THOSE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN
MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LINGERING UPSLOPE MOISTURE
THERE. COULD SEE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE KDAN-
KLYH CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEHIND THE LINE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT STILL SOME CHANCE FOR GUSTS TOM0RROW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD WORK TO
SLOWLY RETURN MOST SITES WITH LOW CIGS BACK TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD BRING A THREAT FOR SUB-VFR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY. WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
LIGHT AND PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...
RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 800 PM. ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1/4
INCH...PERHAPS EVEN LESS THAN 1/10 INCH IN MOST AREAS...CLOUD
COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WIND COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE BEHIND
THE FRONT. SO WHILE A HEADLINE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...THE PROBABILITY FOR SUCH IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...PH/RAB
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/JR/PH
FIRE WEATHER...PM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
248 AM PDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow showers can be expected today over the for eastern
third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Conditions will dry
out on Saturday, but it looks to be short-lived as another front
brings more precipitation by early Sunday morning and into
Monday. A return to dry weather can be expected by middle of next
week with warming temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...Unstable northwest flow has become established
over the region as upper level heights build over the Gulf of
Alaska and a strong northwesterly upper level jet has drifted
into the western part of Washington. This leaves the entire
forecast area on the cold and unstable side of the jet, at least
for the morning. Meanwhile the latest water vapor imagery was
detecting a shortwave trough dropping southeast from around
Kelowna BC. This feature was well handled by the short-range
models all which take it into central Washington by late morning
and then into east-central Oregon by afternoon. Deep ascent ahead
of the feature looks quite favorable resulting in a blossoming of
shower activity through the morning. The atmosphere near the
Cascades is not as favorable to ascent due to shallower
instability and some downslope flow in the lee of the crest. So we
expect most of the showers to occur over the eastern third of
Washington and much of the Panhandle. Northwest flow through the
850-700 mb layer is generally conducive to the best shower
activity over the southern Idaho Panhandle, including the
Clearwater Mountains and Camas Prairie, as well as over the Blue
Mountains in SE Washington. The current batch of winter weather
advisories for the Camas Prairie and central Panhandle Mountains
looks plausible and will allow to continue. Based on the
potential instability combined with the deep ascent some of the
showers could get rather intense however they should be rapid
movers thus preventing widespread significant snow from
occurring. Nonetheless training of showers could occur over these
areas and it wouldn`t be terribly surprising to get a few reports
in excess of three inches over the Camas Prairie and a bit more
over the mountains. Currently the winter weather advisory for snow
is through 11am which is when we will see the best lifting ahead
of the shortwave trough, however if the HRRR is correct we will
see the shower threat continuing into the afternoon, with snow
levels still low enough to bring snow to much of the Camas Prairie
and the central Panhandle Mountains. For tonight the activity will
taper off fairly rapidly as the shortwave departs the region and
is replaced by the offshore ridge.
Saturday and Saturday night...Saturday will be a dry day across
the entire forecast area care of the upper level ridge. However
its drying presence won`t last long as the next moist occluded front
moves into the region. This front is moving slightly faster than
previously forecast and will likely nudge into the Cascades late
in the evening and then push toward the Washington- Idaho border
toward morning. This system will have quite a bit more moisture
than the current system and should bring some light precipitation
to much of central Washington. The precipitation type could be
difficult to determine depending on how quickly it arrives. The
later or slower it arrives the better chances we will see for
snow falling in the valleys. For now we are guessing there won`t
be much cooling based increasing cloud cover during the late
afternoon and evening. However if that notion changes we will need
to lower snow levels lower than the 2500-3000 feet we forecast for
the Methow Valley, Okanogan Valley and Republic area.
Precipitation amounts are too light to consider any winter
highlights at this time. fx
Sunday and Monday: Upper level trough dropping out of the Gulf of
Alaska will impact the region on Sunday. Models have trended a bit
faster for the onset of precipitation. By morning valley rain and
mountain snow will already be moving into eastern WA and north ID.
Snow levels will be 3000-4000 ft with accumulations expected at
Stevens and Lookout Pass. Stevens could see several inches of snow
with Lookout seeing 1-2 inches possible. Winds will increase from
the southwest after the front passes through Sunday afternoon.
Precipitation will quickly move out of the area by late
afternoon/early evening. Sunday night and Monday showers will be
possible as the low sits over the region.
Tuesday through Friday: The cutoff low moves south into Nevada as
the ridge builds builds off the west coast. The ridge will then
flop over across the Pac NW and provide north to northeasterly
flow through Wednesday. This will keep the winds elevated in the
10-20 mph range with occasional gusts to 30 mph. We dry out and
daytime temperatures Tue/Wed will be near average and by Thur/Fri
they will be above average. Overnight lows will be around average
for this time of the year. /Nisbet
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The region will be in an unstable northwest flow, with
a disturbance riding through to keep a threat of showers alive
through at least midday Friday. Occasional MVFR cigs are possible
with any showers that happen over the TAF sites, with LCL IFR cigs
possible especially toward PUW. Early tonight the main risk will
be near PUW/LWS then redevelop around GEG to COE after 08-10Z with
that incoming disturbance. Some that may fall as snow or a
rain/snow mix, with the best risk of snow coming around PUW. The
threat will then decrease behind that disturbance, except near the
mountains and PUW/LWS. The entire region will dry out Friday
evening. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 49 33 52 35 48 32 / 20 0 0 20 90 20
Coeur d`Alene 48 32 51 33 47 31 / 30 10 0 20 90 30
Pullman 46 32 52 34 48 31 / 70 0 0 20 80 20
Lewiston 52 34 57 38 54 35 / 60 0 0 20 60 20
Colville 55 31 55 32 50 31 / 20 0 0 20 80 20
Sandpoint 48 31 49 31 46 32 / 40 10 0 10 90 30
Kellogg 44 30 47 30 43 30 / 70 10 0 10 90 40
Moses Lake 58 33 59 37 56 32 / 10 0 0 40 40 0
Wenatchee 56 34 59 37 53 35 / 10 0 0 50 30 10
Omak 58 33 57 35 52 34 / 10 0 0 60 80 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1107 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.Near Term [Through Today]...
An abundance of rain and embedded thunderstorms continues to
stream into the area from the southwest, just ahead of a surface
cold front. This is generally expected to continue through the
remainder of the late morning and into the afternoon, before
tapering off a bit in the late afternoon and evening as the LLJ
weakens and pivots to the east. PoPs and QPF were bumped up
slightly given the widespread nature of the rain. With that in
mind, and the dense cloud cover across the region, we also reduced
high temperatures today into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
The 12Z Tallahassee sounding and objective RAP analysis do show
some moderately steep mid-level lapse rates around 6.5 C/km which
are currently supporting some modest elevated instability. One
storm already produced quarter size hail near Panama City around
sunrise, and while storm intensity has recently decreased, we
can`t rule out one or two additional strong-severe storms. If they
were to occur, large hail would be the main threat.
&&
.Prev Discussion [703 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
This periods will be quite unsettled and confidence is increasing
that a flood threat will develop over the weekend. The front will
stall about half way across the forecast area tonight and remain
in place on Saturday before lifting back to the north. Forcing
for ascent will increase on Saturday with likely PoPs across most
of the forecast area. The potential for heavy rain is even greater
on Sunday and PoPs are now categorical across much of the forecast
area on that day. While isolated strong to severe storms could
occur this weekend (SPC does show a marginal risk for severe on
Sunday), the primary threat is definitely pivoting toward
flooding. See the hydro section below for a discussion on QPF.
.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Drier air will finally arrive on Monday when a cold front finally
sweeps all the deep-layer moisture to the east. After a couple of
dry and seasonable days, PoPs will return to the forecast for
Wednesday and Thursday as the next frontal system approaches.
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] MVFR CIGS prevail from ABY to ECP this
morning but may improve slightly as thunderstorms develop along the
coast and along the front over the next few hours. Conditions are
expected to improve to VFR this afternoon, but the guidance suggests
that another round of low CIGS and vsbys will be possible
Saturday morning.
.Marine...
Winds will remain onshore through the weekend and below headline
criteria. A westerly wind shift is expected with a cold frontal
passage on Monday with offshore winds in place from Monday night
into Tuesday.
.Fire Weather...
No red flag conditions are expected for the next several days.
.Hydrology...
We could easily see a couple of inches of rain on Saturday. When
combined with what we saw yesterday and expect today, this should
prime the area for what appears to be the day with the greatest
potential for flooding rains, Sunday. The official forecast calls
for widespread 2-inch totals on Sunday with three-day storm totals
of 3-4 inches. However, the latest ECAM run shows mean storm-total
rainfall around 6 inches across the northern half of the forecast
area with maximum totals up to a foot in some members. If we
continue to see persistence in these QPF totals, we would need to
put out a flash flood watch at some point. If rainfall totals are
on the higher end of what some of the CAMs are showing and fall
across the northern half of the HSA, we`d also be dealing with
another prolonged episode of river flooding.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 69 65 77 67 76 / 70 60 80 40 90
Panama City 69 63 72 67 72 / 80 60 80 50 90
Dothan 68 58 76 65 73 / 60 20 70 70 90
Albany 67 60 76 65 74 / 80 30 70 60 90
Valdosta 71 64 76 65 77 / 70 40 80 50 90
Cross City 72 67 80 67 80 / 60 50 60 20 50
Apalachicola 69 65 74 68 73 / 80 60 60 30 70
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
657 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE SUNRISE UPDATE.
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING...THEN STALL OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA AS ITS SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL
UPSTREAM IMPULSES THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
INTERACT WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE THAT
DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING QLCS TO THE SOUTH LATE
THURSDAY EVENING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE COAST MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS NEAR 60 PERCENT SEEMS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
COVERAGE AND TIMING INCREASES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LATEST TIMING NOTED IN THE
VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SETS...WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER
70S FOR ALL BUT FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE MID 70S LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION IS SLOWER TO FORM OR IF TEMPERATURES
WARM QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE...THEN HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S COULD OCCUR.
MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS YIELD MODEST INSTABILITY TODAY WITH SBCAPE
1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KT COUPLED WITH CALCULATED
DCAPES 700-950 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT LIKELY ATTM...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...IF HIGHS CAN WARM TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THAT AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY EARLY
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MEANDERS EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY ENTER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...SUGGESTING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD POP UP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID
60S.
SATURDAY...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT IN ITS
LOCATION COULD LEAD TO LARGE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY...PEAKING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RIGHT NOW THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
SAVANNAH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BE MUCH
HIGHER IF THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND WE GET MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A DELUGE OF SHORTWAVES LIFT OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THE VORT ENERGY COMBINED WITH INCREASING JET
DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING PWATS WILL YIELD GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. BUMPED UP THE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TO REFLECT THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SUNSHINE.
MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL PUSH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO JUST
OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA IN THE
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS US.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH STILL WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE LOW-END
MVFR CIGS GETTING INTO KSAV JUST AFTER SUNRISE. WILL CARRY A TEMPO
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SHOWERS/TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
POSSIBLE IMPACTS AT BOTH TERMINALS...ROUGHLY 19-22Z AT KSAV AND
21-00Z AT KCHS. WILL CARRY TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR VSBYS IN TSRA TO
COVER THIS POSSIBILITY THIS FAR OUT. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NEEDED AS RADAR/MESOSCALE TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO A FRONT STALLING OVER OR
NEAR THE AREA. VFR IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA. LOW-LEVEL
JETTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT WINDS 15-20 KT...EXCEPT
NEAR 15 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEGS.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT MEANDERS INTO THE
FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SPEEDS LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A FRONT STALLS OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING
INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SN
YDAY OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA. THE INCOMING AIRMASS ABOVE ASSOCIATED
SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM JAMES BAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
RATHER DRY PER THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS...WHERE THE PWATS WERE GENERALLY
ABOUT 0.20 INCH /ABOUT 65 PCT OF NORMAL/. ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS LINGER
OVER THE FAR ERN CWA...THE COMBINATION OF THE LLVL ACYC FLOW/LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS RESULTING IN MOCLR SKIES W TO NW
MN...WHERE SOME MID AND HI CLDS ARE PRESENT IN THE WAA PATTERN AHEAD
OF A PAIR OF SHRTWVS...ONE MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS/ FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPR MI HAVE FALLEN AS
LO AS THE SINGLE NUMBERS EARLY THIS MRNG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY UNDER
PASSSING HI PRES RDG AND THEN POPS/PTYPE LATE TNGT AS THE WAA
PATTERN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM SHRTWVS FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING RDG INTO
THE WRN GREAT LKS.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM HI/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE CWA FM THE
W...THE VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS WL ENSURE
DRY WX. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI PRES
SHIFTING OVER LK HURON LATE IN THE DAY IS FCST TO ADVECT SOME WARMER
AIR INTO THE UPR LKS AND LIFT H85 TEMPS TO ARND 0C BY 00Z SAT.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 40S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE
OF THE GREAT LKS...MAINLY LK MI.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME DPVA AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SRN SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS /H825-625/ MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA
OVERNGT AS SFC LO PRES TROF/COLD FNT MOVES INTO WRN LK SUP BY 12Z
SAT. HOW QUICKLY THIS DYNAMIC SUPPORT CAN OVERCOME THE LLVL DRY AIR
TO PRODUCE PCPN IS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES SOMEWHAT
SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THUS BREAKS PCPN OUT A LITTLE
FASTER... BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH
IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS THAT WL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA...
WL TEND TOWARD THE SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM/
LOCAL WRF-ARW. PTYPE FCST IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...BUT FCST THERMAL
FIELDS SUG A MIX OF RA AND SN WL BE PSBL. CONCERN IS LINGERING NEAR
SFC DRY AIR COULD ALLOW FOR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LOWER WBLB
TEMPS AOB 32F. IF PCPN IS IN THE FORM OF RA...SOME FREEZING RA COULD
OCCUR. THE GOOD NEWS IS QPF THRU 12Z SAT WL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...SO ANY SN/ICE ACCUM WL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 549 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE NRN STREAM DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES...WILL
GIVE WAY TO RIDGING AS A SRN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS WEEKEND WILL CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALONG/AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES WILL ALLOW PCPN TO SLOWLY EXPAND FROM
WRN UPPER MI SAT MORNING INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AFTER INITIAL PUSH OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND
BETTER 285-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT EARLY SAT MORNING MODELS SUGGEST
WEAK FORCING DURING DAY ON SAT UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY LEAD TO
LULL IN PCPN. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES STILL INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF -SN/LIGHT FZRA EARLY SAT...MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF...BUT BY LATE SAT MORNING/EARLY SAT AFTERNOON ANY
LIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE IN FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST PLACES. ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE FROM NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ASSOC DEEP Q-LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND INCREASING 285-290K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING PCPN CHCS BY SAT
EVENING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WOULD FAVOR THE WEST HALF FOR GREATER
QPF AMOUNTS AND THUS LIKELY POPS FOR SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP WITH IDEA
OF HIGHER CHC POPS EAST HALF. PTYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PCPN POSSIBLY STAYING MORE RAIN OVER THE FCST
AREA THRU SAT NIGHT...BUT YET MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD INDICATE PCPN
CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW WEST HALF LATE SAT NIGHT WITH A
SNOW/RAIN MIX EAST HALF. WL SIDE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...BUT
COULD EASILY SEE WARMER NAM VERIFYING SAT NIGHT IF TEMPS REACH INTO
THE 40S DURING DAY ON SAT AND THEN THICKER CLOUDS ROLL IN TOWARD
EVENING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
SUN-TUE...AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN DEPARTS OVER THE EAST SUN
MORNING WITH EXITING LOW PRES AREA AND ASSOC TROUGH...EXPECT
CLEARING AND DRYING FROM WEST DURING DAY ON SUN WITH A SFC RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WEAK NRN STREAM SHRTWVS WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN.
INCREASING WAA AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR INTO UPPER MI. HOWEVER...SE FLOW AT SFC WILL TEMPER
WARMING...CONFINING WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS TO MAINLY WRN INTERIOR.
WED-THU...SW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL TROUGH LIFTING
EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR PCPN WED INTO
THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE INCRSG HI/MID CLDS INTO THIS EVNG...LLVL DRY
AIR WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST THE EARLY MRNG HRS ON
SAT. AS A LO PRES TROF APRCHS FM THE W...SOME RA/SN WL ARRIVE AT
IWD/CMX AFTER 06Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR
RANGE AT IWD/CMX...WITH IFR CONDITIONS PSBL AT CMX TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WHEN THE PTYPE WL CHANGE MAINLY TO SN AT THAT SITE.
SINCE THE PCPN WL STAY W OF SAW THRU 12Z SAT...EXPECT VFR WX TO
PREVAIL AT THAT LOCATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE S AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS TONIGHT UNDER A BIT TIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THRU THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AHEAD OF A HI
PRES BUILDING INTO NW ONTARIO. AS THIS HI CENTER MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. A STRONGER S-SE
WIND UP TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP ON TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
HI CENTER TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
550 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING
INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SN
YDAY OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA. THE INCOMING AIRMASS ABOVE ASSOCIATED
SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM JAMES BAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
RATHER DRY PER THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS...WHERE THE PWATS WERE GENERALLY
ABOUT 0.20 INCH /ABOUT 65 PCT OF NORMAL/. ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS LINGER
OVER THE FAR ERN CWA...THE COMBINATION OF THE LLVL ACYC FLOW/LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS RESULTING IN MOCLR SKIES W TO NW
MN...WHERE SOME MID AND HI CLDS ARE PRESENT IN THE WAA PATTERN AHEAD
OF A PAIR OF SHRTWVS...ONE MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS/ FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPR MI HAVE FALLEN AS
LO AS THE SINGLE NUMBERS EARLY THIS MRNG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY UNDER
PASSSING HI PRES RDG AND THEN POPS/PTYPE LATE TNGT AS THE WAA
PATTERN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM SHRTWVS FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING RDG INTO
THE WRN GREAT LKS.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM HI/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE CWA FM THE
W...THE VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS WL ENSURE
DRY WX. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI PRES
SHIFTING OVER LK HURON LATE IN THE DAY IS FCST TO ADVECT SOME WARMER
AIR INTO THE UPR LKS AND LIFT H85 TEMPS TO ARND 0C BY 00Z SAT.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 40S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE
OF THE GREAT LKS...MAINLY LK MI.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME DPVA AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SRN SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS /H825-625/ MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA
OVERNGT AS SFC LO PRES TROF/COLD FNT MOVES INTO WRN LK SUP BY 12Z
SAT. HOW QUICKLY THIS DYNAMIC SUPPORT CAN OVERCOME THE LLVL DRY AIR
TO PRODUCE PCPN IS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES SOMEWHAT
SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THUS BREAKS PCPN OUT A LITTLE
FASTER... BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH
IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS THAT WL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA...
WL TEND TOWARD THE SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM/
LOCAL WRF-ARW. PTYPE FCST IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...BUT FCST THERMAL
FIELDS SUG A MIX OF RA AND SN WL BE PSBL. CONCERN IS LINGERING NEAR
SFC DRY AIR COULD ALLOW FOR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LOWER WBLB
TEMPS AOB 32F. IF PCPN IS IN THE FORM OF RA...SOME FREEZING RA COULD
OCCUR. THE GOOD NEWS IS QPF THRU 12Z SAT WL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...SO ANY SN/ICE ACCUM WL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 549 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE NRN STREAM DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES...WILL
GIVE WAY TO RIDGING AS A SRN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS WEEKEND WILL CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALONG/AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES WILL ALLOW PCPN TO SLOWLY EXPAND FROM
WRN UPPER MI SAT MORNING INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AFTER INITIAL PUSH OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND
BETTER 285-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT EARLY SAT MORNING MODELS SUGGEST
WEAK FORCING DURING DAY ON SAT UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY LEAD TO
LULL IN PCPN. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES STILL INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF -SN/LIGHT FZRA EARLY SAT...MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF...BUT BY LATE SAT MORNING/EARLY SAT AFTERNOON ANY
LIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE IN FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST PLACES. ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE FROM NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ASSOC DEEP Q-LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND INCREASING 285-290K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING PCPN CHCS BY SAT
EVENING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WOULD FAVOR THE WEST HALF FOR GREATER
QPF AMOUNTS AND THUS LIKELY POPS FOR SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP WITH IDEA
OF HIGHER CHC POPS EAST HALF. PTYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PCPN POSSIBLY STAYING MORE RAIN OVER THE FCST
AREA THRU SAT NIGHT...BUT YET MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD INDICATE PCPN
CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW WEST HALF LATE SAT NIGHT WITH A
SNOW/RAIN MIX EAST HALF. WL SIDE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...BUT
COULD EASILY SEE WARMER NAM VERIFYING SAT NIGHT IF TEMPS REACH INTO
THE 40S DURING DAY ON SAT AND THEN THICKER CLOUDS ROLL IN TOWARD
EVENING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
SUN-TUE...AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN DEPARTS OVER THE EAST SUN
MORNING WITH EXITING LOW PRES AREA AND ASSOC TROUGH...EXPECT
CLEARING AND DRYING FROM WEST DURING DAY ON SUN WITH A SFC RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WEAK NRN STREAM SHRTWVS WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN.
INCREASING WAA AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR INTO UPPER MI. HOWEVER...SE FLOW AT SFC WILL TEMPER
WARMING...CONFINING WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS TO MAINLY WRN INTERIOR.
WED-THU...SW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL TROUGH LIFTING
EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR PCPN WED INTO
THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE S AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS TONIGHT UNDER A BIT TIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THRU THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AHEAD OF A HI
PRES BUILDING INTO NW ONTARIO. AS THIS HI CENTER MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. A STRONGER S-SE
WIND UP TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP ON TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
HI CENTER TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
947 AM MDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.UPDATE...
COLD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. COLD
AIR ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW...COLDER SURFACE AIR AND WEAK ENERGY
WITHIN THE TROUGH...PRODUCING AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING. REPORTS OF 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE
COME IN...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE BULL MOUNTAINS.
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR COVERAGE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. THE HRRR SINKS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH AND HANGS IT
UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS RED LODGE
COULD GET MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY...BUT THE THOUGHT OF
WORKING AGAINST A MARCH SUN ANGLE...SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION.
WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...IF THE SNOW SHOULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING...MAY BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH ACCUMULATIONS THERE. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A BACKDOOR
FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA BY NOON. A FEW
AREAS OF WEAK VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG WITH
EITHER THE FRONT NOR THE VORTICITY AREAS. UPSTREAM RADARS DO SHOW
AREAS OF PRECIP SINKING SOUTH. MODELS PAINT QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE I HAVE PLACED
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW THIS MORNING WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW.
ALTHOUGH QG FORCING IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG...LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP
TODAY SO SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR BURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH ON GRASSY
SURFACES...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS AND
POSSIBLY THE HIGHER HILLS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE AN
INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ANY CASE...THIS SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN IMPACT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY THE LESS TRAVELED
ROADSACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE QUITE COOL
WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE BY THIS
EVENING WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MOSTLY
ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTA BORDERS AND AREA MOUNTAINS. A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES. NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ABOUT 50
DEGREES. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER SPRING
STORM SYSTEM PROGGED TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FROM MONDAY THROUGH
PART OF WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING...AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS BECOME UNSETTLED STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...AS A TROF OVER WESTERN CONUS FORMS CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEPENING AND DIGGING SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
IMPROVING SNOW POTENTIAL INTO WESTERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...AS DIFFLUENT FLOW SHIFTS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. PRECIP CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP PROGGED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THINK THAT MOST
INTENSE PRECIP MAY FALL TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL ZONES AS BEST FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. TIMING
VARIES A BIT ON THE SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION...WITH ECMWF EXITING
MORE QUICKLY AND LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION DRY DURING THE DAY
WED. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR WED, HAVE LOWER CHANCE POPS
THEN.
CURRENTLY THE EXPECTED TEMPS LOOK BORDERLINE FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...MEANING THAT ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE LIMITED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS DUE TO STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE. HOWEVER...IF SNOWFALL RATES ARE HIGH...ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND COULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY.
AND FOR THU...A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS
A QUICK-MOVER WITH LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS COMPARED TO WHAT MAY FALL
FROM THE TUE-TUE NIGHT SYSTEM. RMS/HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTH. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED TODAY. GILSTAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042 023/050 031/059 035/048 033/044 026/039 023/042
7/W 20/U 00/U 24/R 46/O 64/O 23/W
LVM 040 018/049 029/054 030/042 023/040 022/035 017/041
8/W 40/U 01/N 46/R 56/O 66/S 23/W
HDN 043 020/052 022/061 030/052 034/048 028/041 022/042
7/W 20/U 00/U 12/R 46/O 64/O 23/W
MLS 040 022/051 028/062 031/058 037/051 029/043 024/042
7/J 10/U 00/U 02/R 25/R 53/O 22/W
4BQ 042 019/047 023/061 028/059 035/051 029/041 022/041
7/W 30/U 00/U 01/B 25/R 65/O 23/W
BHK 036 015/044 025/057 028/055 033/047 029/039 022/039
8/J 11/U 00/U 01/N 24/R 54/O 22/W
SHR 041 018/046 021/056 027/053 031/044 026/037 017/038
6/W 41/U 00/U 12/R 46/O 66/O 33/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON
THE FRONT ALONG AND WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. ATTENDANT
TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MTNS... WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY STRONG WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION
WITHIN THE 50KT LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING OF THE FRONT FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN A DUD SO FAR EAST OF
THE MTNS. MAY STILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK THROUGH DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOME WEAK ELEVATED FINALLY DEVELOPS.
THE LLJ JET SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING WITH TRAILING SFC COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EVENING... FROM 21-00Z IN THE WEST TO 06-09Z IN THE EAST...WHICH
IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR TREND
WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
FRONT CERTAINLY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER STABILIZING WHAT WAS ALREADY EXPECTED TO BE
A WEAKLY BUOYANT AIRMASS. A WEAKER CONVECTIVE SIGNAL CAN BE SEEN IN
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF NMM AND ARW SIMULATIONS AS WELL...WITH THE
LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAVING DOWNGRADED THE MARGINAL OVER CENTRAL NC
TO GENERAL THUNDER. EXPECT A NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT...WITH ISOLATED
THREAT FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER CELL STILL
A POSSIBILITY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON BREAKS IN CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80S EAST. CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY EVENING WILL SUPPORT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S NW TO
LOWER 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...
DOWNSTREAM OF A PAIR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL US... A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTING FROM THE GULF NEWD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL LIFT ATOP THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR
SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK ACROSS...WITH BULK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CLOSE TO THE COAST.
MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK QUITE CHALLENGING WITH A MOSTLY DRY CAD
AIRMASS IN PLACE ON THE NORTH-COOL SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHALLOW OVERRUNNING WILL SUPPORT STRATUS
LAYER OPAQUE ENOUGH TO MODULATE DAYTIME HEATING.
HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...AND MAY NEED TO KNOCK DOWN
FURTHER IF TRENDS CONTINUE. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 60S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...
SUN AND MON: A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOVE
NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THE CAD AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
LINGER...AT LEAST ACROSS THE FAR NW...INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM ERODES IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS CAPPING OUT
IN THE MID 60S NORTH...LOW 70S SOUTH. THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT WRT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN THAT REGARD HAS INCREASED. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA WILL GET ON MON AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST. GENERALLY...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH AND THE RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MON...WITH MON NIGHT BEING DRY AND TEMPS
LOWERING. MON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SE. MON
NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT: A RETURN OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER
FOR MID-WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND
RIDGING ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TUE AND WED. LOWS
MODERATING FROM UPPER LOW 40S TUE NIGHT TO MID TO UPPER 40S WED
NIGHT.
THU AND FRI: ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY
EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU THROUGH FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 50 KT LLJ
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...IN ADDITION TO A PERIOD OF MVFR
STRATUS THROUGH MID MORNING.
ANY SUB-VFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 18-21Z IN THE
WEST TO 03-06Z IN THE EAST. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS
HIGHEST AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT KFAY/KRWI FOR STORMS. ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. OTHERWISE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE 12-16 KT RANGE... WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KTS.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COULD RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY UPGLIDE SETS IN ATOP LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
OUTLOOK: THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHALLOW OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1058 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRINGING A COOLER AIRMASS TO END THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MY FAR EASTERN ZONES AND DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ON A GUSTY WEST WIND. HRRR KEEPS THE REGION
BASICALLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SO I BACKED OFF ON THE
POPS RATHER DRASTICALLY.
THE TYPICAL POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUD SHIELD WILL KEEP WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAINLY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS SEEING THE BRIGHTEST SKIES AND MORE OF A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS.
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW WITH THE TENDENCY FOR CLEARING
LATER IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST..
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. OVER SERN ZONES WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL
BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THU WARM
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DRY COOL AIR MASS OVERSPREADS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. STUBBORN CLOUDS
WILL BREAK OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SEES MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS.
SHOULD SEE PATCHY FOG SATURDAY MORNING AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
OVERHEAD BY 12Z. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE`VE SEEN IN
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 30S SOUTHEAST.
SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH RETURN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING OVER PA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PREVENT UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS FROM
REACHING THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAURELS...BUT WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE
UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY MODEST RIDGING AND A RETURN TO SWLY MEAN
FLOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES ENEWD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE N ATLANTIC BY 28/12Z. A BROAD AREA OF RAIN SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WX INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS STILL WANTS TO END EASTER WEEKEND ON A WET NOTE BY
BRINGING RAIN INTO WESTERN PA BY SUNDAY EVENING. ABOVE AVERAGE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD STILL EXISTS CONCERNING THE SYSTEM FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WPC SUGGESTS LEANING SOMEWHAT AWAY FROM THE SLOW
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD WITH TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE
UPSTREAM ANOMALOUS RIDGE/TROUGH EVOLUTION FAVORING A MODERATELY
PROGRESSIVE MEAN FLOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF
THE FAST GFS/MEDIUM CMC/SLOW ECMWF RESULTS IN A CONSENSUS FCST MAX
POP CENTERED ON MONDAY 3/28.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS WILL HOLD ONTO THE MVFR/IFR INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL THE 18-21Z TIMEFRAME. ELSEWHERE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS IN THE 2000-3000` RANGE
TO BLEED OUT OF THE WESTERN AREAS FOR A TIME THROUGH MID DAY.
A GUSTY WEST WIND UP TO 20-25KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WEST.
MON...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NORMAL SNOWFALL IN WILLIAMSPORT FOR
JUST THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MARCH IS 5.9 INCHES. THIS NUMBER CLIMBS
JUST A BIT BY THE EOM.
ONLY 5.9 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON THERE. SO
THE ENTIRE 2015-16 WINTER CAN/T BEAT WHAT WOULD FALL IN AN
AVERAGE MARCH.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1057 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL STALL
NEAR THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. AFTER THE
LOW PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM EDT FRIDAY...ALL IN ALL THE FCST CONTINUES TO PAN OUT
THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATES TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NC/SC PIEDMONT AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NE GA. LIGHT/MODERATE SW
FLOW REMAINS PREVELANT ACROSS THESE AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
FRONTAL AXIS...WHERE SCT/BKN LOW STRATUS HAS PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SAID STRATUS WILL LIKELY DAMPEN MAX TEMPS
A BIT ALONG/SOUTH OF I85 THEREFORE BLENDED IN LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
MAV GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS SUCH A TREND WITH THE HIGHS BEING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. OTHERWISE...OPTED TO KEEP
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN UPSTATE AS 12Z 4KM NAM SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SOME MODEST CAPE
GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO
A 3-4 DEGREES INVERSION IN PLACE THUS CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT BEST
REGARDING FRONTAL FORCING BREAKING SAID CAP. OTHERWISE...LEFT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS FOR THIS UPDATE.
AS OF 330 AM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT
WAS POSITIONED FROM BIRMINGHAM...RUNNING NE OVER THE INTERSECTION
OF AL/GA/TN...NORTH ACROSS E. TN. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TN...WITH A
PATCH OF RAIN TRACKING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC. HRRR RUNS
AT 5Z AND 6Z HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THE PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY PEAKING ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT
AROUND DAY BREAK...REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A FEW SHOWERS TRIGGER WITH
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. A WIDER VIEW SHOWS LARGE BANDS OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GOM AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF FL. GIVEN THE RECENT RADAR TRENDS...RUNS OF HRRR...AND LARGE
SCALE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...I WILL LOWER POPS TO SCHC TO CHC OVER
THE CWA TODAY. THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE UNFAVORABLE...I WILL
REMOVE MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER
70S EAST OF THE MTNS.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS TO COASTAL AREAS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTH THE REGION WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD YIELD LIGHT NE WINDS BY LATE TONIGHT. I WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY WITH VARYING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50S EAST
OF I-85.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS TRICKY FOR
SATURDAY...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A CONTINUATION OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY. THE
OPERATIONAL NAM STILL DOES NOT TAKE THE FRONT AS FAR TO THE
EAST/SOUTH AS THE OTHER MODELS...SO WHEN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS
ON SATURDAY...THE OP-NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP. THIS
WOULD HAPPEN AT A TIME WHEN A SURFACE HIGH IS STILL IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO RESULT IN A CLASSIC WEDGE.
PRECIP WOULD NOT BE MUCH...BUT IT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO LOCK IN A COOL
AIR MASS...MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT FARTHER EAST...AND ARE NOT
NEARLY AS PRODUCTIVE WITH WEAK LIFT THAT BEGINS ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS RUNS...THE SREF SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS FAVORING
THE DRIER SOLUTION. PROBLEM IS...THE TREND ON THE GEFS IS FOR MORE
MEMBERS TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS RAISES THE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TEMP FCST...AND HAVE NUDGED THE HIGH TEMP DOWN A
BIT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE KEEPING THE POP FAIRLY LOW FOR THE
TIME BEING. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
PRODUCTIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO EXPECT
PRECIP TO BE DEVELOPING/SPREADING NE FROM GEORGIA AT DAYBREAK. THE
PRECIP PROB WILL ONLY INCREASE FROM THERE AS FORCING INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE REACH A MAXIMUM CENTERED AROUND 00Z MONDAY. FOR THE TIME
BEING...THE PRECIP PROB IS HELD IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY MAINLY BY
CONSENSUS WITH NEIGHBORS...BUT SUSPECT THIS WILL BE BUMPED UP TO
CATEGORICAL FOR SOME LENGTH OF TIME LATE SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
CARRIED OFF TO THE E/NE EARLY IN THE DAY. SO...PRECIP CHANCES
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE TN BORDER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO COME AROUND TO
W/NW BY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AFFORD A SIGNIFICANT REBOUND OF
TEMPS...BACK TO SOMETHING MORE THAN 5 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY IN-LINE WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST...SO FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. THE MODELS AGREE
THAT THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH UPPER
RIDGING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...SUPPORTING HIGH
PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...
PUSHING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THUS...
EXPECT WE WIL HAVE A TURN BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARMING TREND AFTER THAT. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF COMING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH A MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A FRONT LAYING OUT ON THE W SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 10Z INDICATED
THAT THE SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SLIDING
STEADILY EAST. SFC OBSERVATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SHOWED GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS...WITH PATCHY MVFR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOW CLOUD HEIGHTS REMAINING LOW
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LOWEST AROUND DAWN. HOWEVER...THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS
INCREASINGLY FAVORING VFR CEILINGS THROUGH MORNING. RADAR TRENDS AND
CAMS INDICATE THAT THE CHC FOR RAIN HAS LARGELY PASSED. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN FROM THE SW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...VEERING FROM THE NW DURING THE EARLY EVENING. KAVL WILL
MAINTAIN A NNW WIND...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85
CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND THUS RESTRICTIONS INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 80%
KGSP HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
KAVL HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
KAND HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
553 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL STALL
NEAR THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. AFTER THE
LOW PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OF 550 AM...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LIKELY PEAKED AROUND AN HOUR AGO.
I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCELERATE THE DECREASE OF POPS THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...I WILL CUT BACK ON QPF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. OVERALL...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS APPEAR ON
TRACK.
AS OF 330 AM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS
POSITIONED FROM BIRMINGHAM...RUNNING NE OVER THE INTERSECTION OF
AL/GA/TN...NORTH ACROSS E. TN. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TN...WITH A
PATCH OF RAIN TRACKING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC. HRRR RUNS
AT 5Z AND 6Z HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THE PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IS LIKELY PEAKING ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT AROUND DAY
BREAK...REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A FEW SHOWERS TRIGGER WITH AFTERNOON
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. A WIDER VIEW SHOWS LARGE BANDS OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GOM AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL.
GIVEN THE RECENT RADAR TRENDS...RUNS OF HRRR...AND LARGE SCALE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...I WILL LOWER POPS TO SCHC TO CHC OVER THE CWA
TODAY. THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE UNFAVORABLE...I WILL REMOVE
MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 70S EAST
OF THE MTNS.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS TO COASTAL AREAS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTH THE REGION WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD YIELD LIGHT NE WINDS BY LATE TONIGHT. I WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY WITH VARYING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50S EAST OF
I-85.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS TRICKY FOR
SATURDAY...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A CONTINUATION OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY. THE
OPERATIONAL NAM STILL DOES NOT TAKE THE FRONT AS FAR TO THE
EAST/SOUTH AS THE OTHER MODELS...SO WHEN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS
ON SATURDAY...THE OP-NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP. THIS
WOULD HAPPEN AT A TIME WHEN A SURFACE HIGH IS STILL IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO RESULT IN A CLASSIC WEDGE.
PRECIP WOULD NOT BE MUCH...BUT IT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO LOCK IN A COOL
AIR MASS...MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT FARTHER EAST...AND ARE NOT
NEARLY AS PRODUCTIVE WITH WEAK LIFT THAT BEGINS ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS RUNS...THE SREF SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS FAVORING
THE DRIER SOLUTION. PROBLEM IS...THE TREND ON THE GEFS IS FOR MORE
MEMBERS TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS RAISES THE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TEMP FCST...AND HAVE NUDGED THE HIGH TEMP DOWN A
BIT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE KEEPING THE POP FAIRLY LOW FOR THE
TIME BEING. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
PRODUCTIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO EXPECT
PRECIP TO BE DEVELOPING/SPREADING NE FROM GEORGIA AT DAYBREAK. THE
PRECIP PROB WILL ONLY INCREASE FROM THERE AS FORCING INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE REACH A MAXIMUM CENTERED AROUND 00Z MONDAY. FOR THE TIME
BEING...THE PRECIP PROB IS HELD IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY MAINLY BY
CONSENSUS WITH NEIGHBORS...BUT SUSPECT THIS WILL BE BUMPED UP TO
CATEGORICAL FOR SOME LENGTH OF TIME LATE SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
CARRIED OFF TO THE E/NE EARLY IN THE DAY. SO...PRECIP CHANCES
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE TN BORDER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO COME AROUND TO
W/NW BY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AFFORD A SIGNIFICANT REBOUND OF
TEMPS...BACK TO SOMETHING MORE THAN 5 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY IN-LINE WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST...SO FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. THE MODELS AGREE
THAT THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH UPPER
RIDGING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...SUPPORTING HIGH
PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...
PUSHING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THUS...
EXPECT WE WIL HAVE A TURN BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARMING TREND AFTER THAT. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF COMING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH A MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A FRONT LAYING OUT ON THE W SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 5Z INDICATED THAT
THE SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN TN AND NW GA...SLIDING
STEADILY EAST. SFC OBSERVATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SHOWED GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOW CLOUD HEIGHTS DESCENDING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...LOWEST AROUND DAWN. I WILL TIME ALL TERMINALS TO
DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 7Z TO 9Z. KCLT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 12Z TO 14Z...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO. RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
DAYLIGHT HOURS. RADAR TRENDS AND CAMS INDICATED THAT THE BEST CHC
FOR RA WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS KAVL TO HKY...BETWEEN 8Z TO 11Z.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE SW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KAVL WILL MAINTAIN A NNW
WIND...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85
CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND THUS RESTRICTIONS INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
10-16Z 16-22Z 22-04Z 04-06Z
KCLT HIGH 83% HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 89% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 72% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 83% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 83% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1003 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THIS FRONT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT FRIDAY...
AT 13Z (9 AM EDT)...A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST WEST OF LYH TO MTV
AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY WERE
DIMINISHING AS ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...CLEARING WAS OBSERVED ON VSBY
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF NC TO PORTIONS OF THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THIS CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE EXCEPT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD STILL KEEP
TEMPS COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE
TO FORECAST HIGHS.
DESPITE WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LURK IN
THE VIRGINIA SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT...WITH CAPES FORECAST TO
REACH 100-200 J/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AS ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR
AND RAP...WHICH BOTH HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT...KEPT CHC POPS IN THIS REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.
FRONT SLOWS UP JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS THAT MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER
EASTERN SECTIONS. ALSO FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTH/NE THIS EVENING AND
THEN SE ACROSS THE SW LATE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WEDGING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THINKING THAT WILL REMAIN DRY WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP SOUTHERN SECTIONS
SO TRENDING MORE PC EXCEPT CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH
COOLING TO GET LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY FROST HEADLINES IN FAR SW VA AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH A COOL NORTHEAST WIND TO START THIS
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND OVERRUNNING CIRRUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KEPT SATURDAY TEMPERATURES UNDER GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL LEVELS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND ALONG WITH
INCREASE LOW CLOUDS...WILL HAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD
IN THE 40S AND ABOVE GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY FOR TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE
DISPLAYING A SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE VA/NC COAST AND HAVE REMOVED
THE WEDGE FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THIS
REFLECTION AND PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA WILL
ENHANCE THIS WEDGE SUNDAY. FURTHERMORE...WITH NO PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE WEDGE...WE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE MET...WHICH IS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE MODELS.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNIFORM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE WEDGE
MAY ERODE SOME TOWARDS THE BLUEFIELD AND MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AREAS TO
POSSIBLE HIT 70F SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ADVANCE
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THE WEDGE OUT OF THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS BEGIN TO PHASE ON MONDAY
AS BOTH LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES MERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE WEDGE
BREAKS AND COLD AIR DOES NOT START MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TROF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ECMWF HAS A SHORT WAVE PUSHING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC WAS FAVORING THE TIMING AND MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY FOR RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AND INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COOLEST MORNING OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PATCHY SHOWERS HEAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE BLUE RIDGE
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SITES
THIS MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KBCB AND PERHAPS KROA. IN
ADDITION...A HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LINGERING FOG AROUND UNTIL MID
OR LATE MORNING. OTRW MAINTAINED SHORT PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT KDAN
AND KLYH BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF HRRR BUT LEFT MOSTLY VFR VSBYS
GIVEN LIGHT NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ESPCLY KBLF VICINITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LINGERING UPSLOPE MOISTURE THERE. COULD SEE
ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE KDAN-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY AS WELL BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEHIND THE LINE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT STILL SOME CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
WORK TO SLOWLY RETURN MOST SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BACK
TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF VFR
BACK TO MOST SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
HELPS SPILL MVFR CANOPY INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SW SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF RETURN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT APPEARS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BRING MVFR CIGS INTO
KBCB/KROA WITH KBLF PERHAPS STAYING MVFR WITHOUT REACHING VFR
LATER TODAY. THINK KLYH/KLWB HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING
SCATTERED OUT WHILE KDAN MAY STAY WITH VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT THIS
POINT.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MAY GET STUCK WITHIN MVFR CIGS FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WEDGE SLOW TO EXIT.
THIS COULD BRING SUB-VFR TO MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ALLOWING LOWER
CIGS TO SCATTER OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LIKELY TO BRING A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR IN
LOW CIGS/SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BY
TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE AND
EVEN HIGHER WHERE SHOWERS PASS ACROSS. HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1/10 INCH IN MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 25 MPH EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PRECENT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PH
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS/RCS
AVIATION...JH/JR/PH
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
706 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THIS FRONT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL PUSH EAST
CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE
CONTINUED TO DRY UP CROSSING THE RIDGES GIVEN DRY AIR AND NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW BANDS OR SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNRISE MAINLY WEST. MOST PRECIP SHOULD THEN FADE OUT LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE FRONT CROSSES PER LATEST HRRR WITH CLOUDS DECREASING
CENTRAL SECTIONS AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER MOISTURE
LIKELY TO LINGER OVER UPSLOPE WESTERN SECTIONS UNDER NW FLOW AND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE BOUNDARY CLEARS.
DESPITE THIS...STILL EXPECTING SOME SUN IN ALL SECTIONS LATER IN THE
DAY GIVEN HEATING AND DRY ADVECTION. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PIEDMONT IF THE FRONT SLOWS EVEN MORE TO POP ADDED
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SO INCLUDED LOW POPS THERE. OTRW CUT OUT POPS
ELSEWHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE LEANING ON THE SIDE OF THE WARMER
MAV MOS ESPCLY EAST GIVEN CURRENT WARM READINGS...AND IDEA THAT MOST
WEAK COOL ADVECTION WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTHWEST LATER ON.
FRONT SLOWS UP JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS THAT MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER
EASTERN SECTIONS. ALSO FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTH/NE THIS EVENING AND
THEN SE ACROSS THE SW LATE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WEDGING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THINKING THAT WILL REMAIN DRY WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP SOUTHERN SECTIONS
SO TRENDING MORE PC EXCEPT CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH
COOLING TO GET LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY FROST HEADLINES IN FAR SW VA AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH A COOL NORTHEAST WIND TO START THIS
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND OVERRUNNING CIRRUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KEPT SATURDAY TEMPERATURES UNDER GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL LEVELS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND ALONG WITH
INCREASE LOW CLOUDS...WILL HAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD
IN THE 40S AND ABOVE GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY FOR TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE
DISPLAYING A SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE VA/NC COAST AND HAVE REMOVED
THE WEDGE FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THIS
REFLECTION AND PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA WILL
ENHANCE THIS WEDGE SUNDAY. FURTHERMORE...WITH NO PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE WEDGE...WE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE MET...WHICH IS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE MODELS.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNIFORM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE WEDGE
MAY ERODE SOME TOWARDS THE BLUEFIELD AND MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AREAS TO
POSSIBLE HIT 70F SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ADVANCE
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THE WEDGE OUT OF THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS BEGIN TO PHASE ON MONDAY
AS BOTH LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES MERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE WEDGE
BREAKS AND COLD AIR DOES NOT START MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TROF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ECMWF HAS A SHORT WAVE PUSHING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC WAS FAVORING THE TIMING AND MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY FOR RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AND INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COOLEST MORNING OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PATCHY SHOWERS HEAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE BLUE RIDGE
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SITES
THIS MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KBCB AND PERHAPS KROA. IN
ADDITION...A HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LINGERING FOG AROUND UNTIL MID
OR LATE MORNING. OTRW MAINTAINED SHORT PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT KDAN
AND KLYH BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF HRRR BUT LEFT MOSTLY VFR VSBYS
GIVEN LIGHT NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ESPCLY KBLF VICINITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LINGERING UPSLOPE MOISTURE THERE. COULD SEE
ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE KDAN-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY AS WELL BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEHIND THE LINE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT STILL SOME CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
WORK TO SLOWLY RETURN MOST SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BACK
TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF VFR
BACK TO MOST SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
HELPS SPILL MVFR CANOPY INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SW SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF RETURN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT APPEARS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BRING MVFR CIGS INTO
KBCB/KROA WITH KBLF PERHAPS STAYING MVFR WITHOUT REACHING VFR
LATER TODAY. THINK KLYH/KLWB HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING
SCATTERED OUT WHILE KDAN MAY STAY WITH VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT THIS
POINT.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MAY GET STUCK WITHIN MVFR CIGS FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WEDGE SLOW TO EXIT.
THIS COULD BRING SUB-VFR TO MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ALLOWING LOWER
CIGS TO SCATTER OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LIKELY TO BRING A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR IN
LOW CIGS/SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BY
TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE AND
EVEN HIGHER WHERE SHOWERS PASS ACROSS. HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1/10 INCH IN MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS COULD AGAIN LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ONCE THE FRONT
CROSSES AND WINDS TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING TRAJECTORY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD ONLY BE 20 TO 25 MPH AT MOST
JUST IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...HUMIDITY COULD AGAIN DROP TO
AROUND 30 PERCENT IF NOT LOWER IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED.
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A BIT MORE
RAINFALL ALONG WITH COOLER CONDITIONS UNDER CLOUD COVER LONGER
WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE FIRE THREAT TO SOME DEGREE. THEREFORE
GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE TODAY...PLAN TO ONLY HEADLINE THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL LOW HUMIDITY...AND SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITHOUT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR NOW PENDING COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS/RCS
AVIATION...JH/JR/PH
FIRE WEATHER...JH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
548 AM PDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow showers can be expected today over the for eastern
third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Conditions will dry
out on Saturday, but it looks to be short-lived as another front
brings more precipitation by early Sunday morning and into
Monday. A return to dry weather can be expected by middle of next
week with warming temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...Unstable northwest flow has become established
over the region as upper level heights build over the Gulf of
Alaska and a strong northwesterly upper level jet has drifted
into the western part of Washington. This leaves the entire
forecast area on the cold and unstable side of the jet, at least
for the morning. Meanwhile the latest water vapor imagery was
detecting a shortwave trough dropping southeast from around
Kelowna BC. This feature was well handled by the short-range
models all which take it into central Washington by late morning
and then into east-central Oregon by afternoon. Deep ascent ahead
of the feature looks quite favorable resulting in a blossoming of
shower activity through the morning. The atmosphere near the
Cascades is not as favorable to ascent due to shallower
instability and some downslope flow in the lee of the crest. So we
expect most of the showers to occur over the eastern third of
Washington and much of the Panhandle. Northwest flow through the
850-700 mb layer is generally conducive to the best shower
activity over the southern Idaho Panhandle, including the
Clearwater Mountains and Camas Prairie, as well as over the Blue
Mountains in SE Washington. The current batch of winter weather
advisories for the Camas Prairie and central Panhandle Mountains
looks plausible and will allow to continue. Based on the
potential instability combined with the deep ascent some of the
showers could get rather intense however they should be rapid
movers thus preventing widespread significant snow from
occurring. Nonetheless training of showers could occur over these
areas and it wouldn`t be terribly surprising to get a few reports
in excess of three inches over the Camas Prairie and a bit more
over the mountains. Currently the winter weather advisory for snow
is through 11am which is when we will see the best lifting ahead
of the shortwave trough, however if the HRRR is correct we will
see the shower threat continuing into the afternoon, with snow
levels still low enough to bring snow to much of the Camas Prairie
and the central Panhandle Mountains. For tonight the activity will
taper off fairly rapidly as the shortwave departs the region and
is replaced by the offshore ridge.
Saturday and Saturday night...Saturday will be a dry day across
the entire forecast area care of the upper level ridge. However
its drying presence won`t last long as the next moist occluded front
moves into the region. This front is moving slightly faster than
previously forecast and will likely nudge into the Cascades late
in the evening and then push toward the Washington- Idaho border
toward morning. This system will have quite a bit more moisture
than the current system and should bring some light precipitation
to much of central Washington. The precipitation type could be
difficult to determine depending on how quickly it arrives. The
later or slower it arrives the better chances we will see for
snow falling in the valleys. For now we are guessing there won`t
be much cooling based increasing cloud cover during the late
afternoon and evening. However if that notion changes we will need
to lower snow levels lower than the 2500-3000 feet we forecast for
the Methow Valley, Okanogan Valley and Republic area.
Precipitation amounts are too light to consider any winter
highlights at this time. fx
Sunday and Monday: Upper level trough dropping out of the Gulf of
Alaska will impact the region on Sunday. Models have trended a bit
faster for the onset of precipitation. By morning valley rain and
mountain snow will already be moving into eastern WA and north ID.
Snow levels will be 3000-4000 ft with accumulations expected at
Stevens and Lookout Pass. Stevens could see several inches of snow
with Lookout seeing 1-2 inches possible. Winds will increase from
the southwest after the front passes through Sunday afternoon.
Precipitation will quickly move out of the area by late
afternoon/early evening. Sunday night and Monday showers will be
possible as the low sits over the region.
Tuesday through Friday: The cutoff low moves south into Nevada as
the ridge builds builds off the west coast. The ridge will then
flop over across the Pac NW and provide north to northeasterly
flow through Wednesday. This will keep the winds elevated in the
10-20 mph range with occasional gusts to 30 mph. We dry out and
daytime temperatures Tue/Wed will be near average and by Thur/Fri
they will be above average. Overnight lows will be around average
for this time of the year. /Nisbet
&&
.AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected to generally
prevail at all taf sites through this forecast period. The main
weather of consequence will revolve around compact upper level
disturbance currently moving into extreme NE Washington. Showers
already beginning to develop ahead of this system over the eastern
third of WA and much of the ID Panhandle and should continue to
expand through the morning. Since this isn`t a real moist system we
expect ceiling heights to remain in the VFR category, however brief
MVFR cigs are possible especially for GEG SFF COE and PUW. The
disturbance is forecast to drop into OR by afternoon, however
residual instability will keep the threat of showers going through
the afternoon. Drier weather and clearing skies will return to all
sites overnight. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 49 33 52 35 48 32 / 20 0 0 20 90 20
Coeur d`Alene 48 32 51 33 47 31 / 30 10 0 20 90 30
Pullman 46 32 52 34 48 31 / 70 0 0 20 80 20
Lewiston 52 34 57 38 54 35 / 60 0 0 20 60 20
Colville 55 31 55 32 50 31 / 20 0 0 20 80 20
Sandpoint 48 31 49 31 46 32 / 40 10 0 10 90 30
Kellogg 44 30 47 30 43 30 / 70 10 0 10 90 40
Moses Lake 58 33 59 37 56 32 / 10 0 0 40 40 0
Wenatchee 56 34 59 37 53 35 / 10 0 0 50 30 10
Omak 58 33 57 35 52 34 / 10 0 0 60 80 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
248 AM PDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow showers can be expected today over the for eastern
third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Conditions will dry
out on Saturday, but it looks to be short-lived as another front
brings more precipitation by early Sunday morning and into
Monday. A return to dry weather can be expected by middle of next
week with warming temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...Unstable northwest flow has become established
over the region as upper level heights build over the Gulf of
Alaska and a strong northwesterly upper level jet has drifted
into the western part of Washington. This leaves the entire
forecast area on the cold and unstable side of the jet, at least
for the morning. Meanwhile the latest water vapor imagery was
detecting a shortwave trough dropping southeast from around
Kelowna BC. This feature was well handled by the short-range
models all which take it into central Washington by late morning
and then into east-central Oregon by afternoon. Deep ascent ahead
of the feature looks quite favorable resulting in a blossoming of
shower activity through the morning. The atmosphere near the
Cascades is not as favorable to ascent due to shallower
instability and some downslope flow in the lee of the crest. So we
expect most of the showers to occur over the eastern third of
Washington and much of the Panhandle. Northwest flow through the
850-700 mb layer is generally conducive to the best shower
activity over the southern Idaho Panhandle, including the
Clearwater Mountains and Camas Prairie, as well as over the Blue
Mountains in SE Washington. The current batch of winter weather
advisories for the Camas Prairie and central Panhandle Mountains
looks plausible and will allow to continue. Based on the
potential instability combined with the deep ascent some of the
showers could get rather intense however they should be rapid
movers thus preventing widespread significant snow from
occurring. Nonetheless training of showers could occur over these
areas and it wouldn`t be terribly surprising to get a few reports
in excess of three inches over the Camas Prairie and a bit more
over the mountains. Currently the winter weather advisory for snow
is through 11am which is when we will see the best lifting ahead
of the shortwave trough, however if the HRRR is correct we will
see the shower threat continuing into the afternoon, with snow
levels still low enough to bring snow to much of the Camas Prairie
and the central Panhandle Mountains. For tonight the activity will
taper off fairly rapidly as the shortwave departs the region and
is replaced by the offshore ridge.
Saturday and Saturday night...Saturday will be a dry day across
the entire forecast area care of the upper level ridge. However
its drying presence won`t last long as the next moist occluded front
moves into the region. This front is moving slightly faster than
previously forecast and will likely nudge into the Cascades late
in the evening and then push toward the Washington- Idaho border
toward morning. This system will have quite a bit more moisture
than the current system and should bring some light precipitation
to much of central Washington. The precipitation type could be
difficult to determine depending on how quickly it arrives. The
later or slower it arrives the better chances we will see for
snow falling in the valleys. For now we are guessing there won`t
be much cooling based increasing cloud cover during the late
afternoon and evening. However if that notion changes we will need
to lower snow levels lower than the 2500-3000 feet we forecast for
the Methow Valley, Okanogan Valley and Republic area.
Precipitation amounts are too light to consider any winter
highlights at this time. fx
Sunday and Monday: Upper level trough dropping out of the Gulf of
Alaska will impact the region on Sunday. Models have trended a bit
faster for the onset of precipitation. By morning valley rain and
mountain snow will already be moving into eastern WA and north ID.
Snow levels will be 3000-4000 ft with accumulations expected at
Stevens and Lookout Pass. Stevens could see several inches of snow
with Lookout seeing 1-2 inches possible. Winds will increase from
the southwest after the front passes through Sunday afternoon.
Precipitation will quickly move out of the area by late
afternoon/early evening. Sunday night and Monday showers will be
possible as the low sits over the region.
Tuesday through Friday: The cutoff low moves south into Nevada as
the ridge builds builds off the west coast. The ridge will then
flop over across the Pac NW and provide north to northeasterly
flow through Wednesday. This will keep the winds elevated in the
10-20 mph range with occasional gusts to 30 mph. We dry out and
daytime temperatures Tue/Wed will be near average and by Thur/Fri
they will be above average. Overnight lows will be around average
for this time of the year. /Nisbet
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The region will be in an unstable northwest flow, with
a disturbance riding through to keep a threat of showers alive
through at least midday Friday. Occasional MVFR cigs are possible
with any showers that happen over the TAF sites, with LCL IFR cigs
possible especially toward PUW. Early tonight the main risk will
be near PUW/LWS then redevelop around GEG to COE after 08-10Z with
that incoming disturbance. Some that may fall as snow or a
rain/snow mix, with the best risk of snow coming around PUW. The
threat will then decrease behind that disturbance, except near the
mountains and PUW/LWS. The entire region will dry out Friday
evening. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 49 33 52 35 48 32 / 20 0 0 20 90 20
Coeur d`Alene 48 32 51 33 47 31 / 30 10 0 20 90 30
Pullman 46 32 52 34 48 31 / 70 0 0 20 80 20
Lewiston 52 34 57 38 54 35 / 60 0 0 20 60 20
Colville 55 31 55 32 50 31 / 20 0 0 20 80 20
Sandpoint 48 31 49 31 46 32 / 40 10 0 10 90 30
Kellogg 44 30 47 30 43 30 / 70 10 0 10 90 40
Moses Lake 58 33 59 37 56 32 / 10 0 0 40 40 0
Wenatchee 56 34 59 37 53 35 / 10 0 0 50 30 10
Omak 58 33 57 35 52 34 / 10 0 0 60 80 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
300 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR
THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN DISSIPATING LINE OF SHOWERS WORKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LI.
LATEST HRRR HAS THIS LINE MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING WITH
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST PLACES LIKELY ALREADY REACHED THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE
DAY...AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY...EVEN FALL...AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH.
COLD FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT COME THROUGH UNTIL THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE NY METRO AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NY METRO AND ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS INTERIOR
AWAY FROM MARITIME INVERSION. POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE POOLING UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PAC ENERGY
ENTERING THE WEST COAST EARLIER THIS EVENING DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN LIFTING TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ENERGY IN
COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY WILL HAVE A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A COASTAL LOW
BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION WITH
RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN STORM TIMING...TRACK AND
INTENSITY DETAILS ARE STILL LOW.
SBU ENSEMBLES SENSITIVITY AND FUZZY CLUSTERING ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CMC/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM. SENSITIVITY IN EXACT PROGRESSION AND EVOLUTION OF LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTHENING OF THE PAC
SHORTWAVE AS IT INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY WEAKER
LOW...WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE A LESS PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY
STRONGER LOW. TO ADD TO THIS...THE PHASING DETAILS WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF
COMPLEXITY IN STRENGTH AND WIND/QPF POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BASED ON THIS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH POPS
COVERING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD TO ACCOUNT
FOR TIMING ISSUES EVIDENT IN ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...GUSTY NW WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY AND TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...VEERING FROM THE SW TO W...THEN NW. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ESTIMATED AROUND 21Z KSWF...22-23Z NYC TERMINALS...AND 00-01Z
EASTERN TERMINALS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH AROUND 09Z.
THERE REMAINS MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST
CHANCE MAY BE EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER.
IFR CONDITIONS KISP AND KGON UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE
VFR. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHRA.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO W THEN NW MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS 1-2
HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO W THEN NW MAY VARY
BY AS MUCH AS 1-2 HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY VARY FROM 230-280 THRU 20Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY VARY FROM 230-280 THRU 20Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO W THEN NW MAY VARY
BY AS MUCH AS 1-2 HOURS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO W THEN NW MAY VARY
BY AS MUCH AS 1-2 HOURS. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE TIMING OF THE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FEET. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH...BUT SCA LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS OCEAN AND SOUTHERN BAYS...AND
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE COOL WATERS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.
SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY SWELLS MAY LINGER SCA SEAS INTO SAT NIGHT.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ON MONDAY...BUT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCA
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN GALES...MON NIGHT INTO TUE IN WAKE OF
INTENSIFYING LOW PRES TRACKING TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA TODAY WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNT BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR
GREATER OF RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/NV
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...FIG/NV
HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1216 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR
THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
IS APPROACHING NYC. LATEST HRRR HAS THIS LINE MOVING INTO LONG
ISLAND AND CT...AND THEN SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER CT/LI INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LOWER QPF AMOUNTS...AS PRECIP IS GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE.
MOST PLACES LIKELY ALREADY REACHED THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE
DAY...AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY...EVEN FALL...AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH.
COLD FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT COME THROUGH UNTIL THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE NY METRO AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NY METRO AND ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS INTERIOR
AWAY FROM MARITIME INVERSION. POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE POOLING UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PAC ENERGY
ENTERING THE WEST COAST EARLIER THIS EVENING DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN LIFTING TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ENERGY IN
COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY WILL HAVE A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A COASTAL LOW
BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION WITH
RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN STORM TIMING...TRACK AND
INTENSITY DETAILS ARE STILL LOW.
SBU ENSEMBLES SENSITIVITY AND FUZZY CLUSTERING ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CMC/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM. SENSITIVITY IN EXACT PROGRESSION AND EVOLUTION OF LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTHENING OF THE PAC
SHORTWAVE AS IT INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY WEAKER
LOW...WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE A LESS PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY
STRONGER LOW. TO ADD TO THIS...THE PHASING DETAILS WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF
COMPLEXITY IN STRENGTH AND WIND/QPF POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BASED ON THIS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH POPS
COVERING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD TO ACCOUNT
FOR TIMING ISSUES EVIDENT IN ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...GUSTY NW WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY AND TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING NYC TERMINALS...TRACKING NE AT 40 KT.
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED EVENT AND WILL PASS EAST BY 17Z. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH THE ACTIVITY AND AN ISOLATED
TSRA CAN NOT BE RULED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN TAFS.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...18Z-21Z.
LLWS LASTS UNTIL AROUND 18Z AT KGON. WINDS VEER TO SW WITH G20KT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE W THEN NW MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. TIMING OF
WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON MAY NEED TO BE DELAYED BY SEVERAL
HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO W THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE
DELAYED 1-2 HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO W THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE
DELAYED 1-2 HOURS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO W THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE
DELAYED 1-2 HOURS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO SW THIS MORNING MAY BE
DELAYED BY AN HOUR...AS WELL WIND SHIFT TO THE W THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR POSSIBLE. WIND SHIFT TO W THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BE DELAYED BY SEVERAL HOURS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FEET. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH...BUT SCA LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS OCEAN AND SOUTHERN BAYS...AND
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE COOL WATERS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.
SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY SWELLS MAY LINGER SCA SEAS INTO SAT NIGHT.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ON MONDAY...BUT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCA
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN GALES...MON NIGHT INTO TUE IN WAKE OF
INTENSIFYING LOW PRES TRACKING TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA TODAY WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNT BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR
GREATER OF RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/NV
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JMC/DW
MARINE...FIG/NV
HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1156 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR
THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
IS APPROACHING NYC. LATEST HRRR HAS THIS LINE MOVING INTO LONG
ISLAND AND CT...AND THEN SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER CT/LI INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LOWER QPF AMOUNTS...AS PRECIP IS GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE.
MOST PLACES LIKELY ALREADY REACHED THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE
DAY...AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY...EVEN FALL...AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH.
COLD FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT COME THROUGH UNTIL THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE NY METRO AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NY METRO AND ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS INTERIOR
AWAY FROM MARITIME INVERSION. POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE POOLING UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PAC ENERGY
ENTERING THE WEST COAST EARLIER THIS EVENING DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN LIFTING TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ENERGY IN
COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY WILL HAVE A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A COASTAL LOW
BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION WITH
RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN STORM TIMING...TRACK AND
INTENSITY DETAILS ARE STILL LOW.
SBU ENSEMBLES SENSITIVITY AND FUZZY CLUSTERING ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CMC/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM. SENSITIVITY IN EXACT PROGRESSION AND EVOLUTION OF LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTHENING OF THE PAC
SHORTWAVE AS IT INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY WEAKER
LOW...WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE A LESS PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY
STRONGER LOW. TO ADD TO THIS...THE PHASING DETAILS WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF
COMPLEXITY IN STRENGTH AND WIND/QPF POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BASED ON THIS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH POPS
COVERING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD TO ACCOUNT
FOR TIMING ISSUES EVIDENT IN ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...GUSTY NW WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY AND TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF LI AND AND SE CT...BUT IS STILL
HUNG UP NEAR NYC. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF...WILL IMPACT KSWF 15Z-17Z...NYC TERMINALS/KHPN
17-19Z...AND KGON/KISP/KBDR 19Z-21Z. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWS
BY 1-2 HOURS.
THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH THE ACTIVITY AND AN ISOLATED
TSRA CAN NOT BE RULED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...18Z-21Z.
WINDS VEER TO THE SW AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NORTH...AND
INCREASE TO 15-20KT FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MRNG. LLWS LASTS
UNTIL AROUND 15Z...EXCEPT UNTIL AROUND 18Z AT KGON. THE ONLY OTHER
EXCEPTION IS KSWF...WHERE NO LLWS IS EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SW
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE W THEN NW
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20KT PROBABLE FROM MID AFTERNOON
ON.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. TIMING OF
WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON MAY NEED TO BE DELAYED BY SEVERAL
HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO W THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE
DELAYED BY SEVERAL HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO SW THIS MORNING MAY BE
DELAYED BY 1-2 HOURS...AS WELL WIND SHIFT TO THE W THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO SW THIS MORNING MAY BE
DELAYED BY 1-2 HOURS...AS WELL WIND SHIFT TO THE W THIS
AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VIS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER AFT THE
WRMFNT. WIND SHIFT TO SW THIS MORNING MAY BE DELAYED BY 1-2
HOURS...AS WELL WIND SHIFT TO THE W THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR THIS MRNG. WIND SHIFT TO W
THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE DELAYED BY SEVERAL HOURS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FEET. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH...BUT SCA LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS OCEAN AND SOUTHERN BAYS...AND
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE COOL WATERS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.
SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY SWELLS MAY LINGER SCA SEAS INTO SAT NIGHT.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ON MONDAY...BUT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCA
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN GALES...MON NIGHT INTO TUE IN WAKE OF
INTENSIFYING LOW PRES TRACKING TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA TODAY WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNT BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR
GREATER OF RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/NV
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JMC/DW
MARINE...FIG/NV
HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
332 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MAY CLIP MARION AND FLAGLER
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. IN BETWEEN...A SPRINKLE OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. THE SIGNIFICANT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF HAS
HELD TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S. SO THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE DAY.
LOWERED POPS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND ECMWF DEVELOP CONVECTION THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AND BUMPED UP POPS THERE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING.
ON SATURDAY...CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF ONCE AGAIN...AND ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AND OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET IS FORECAST
TO NOSE INTO THE REGION...WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA SATURDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40-50 KNOTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AND ANY HEATING MAY LEAD TO A FEW
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...AND A MARGINAL RISK IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...WARMEST SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OVER FL PANHANDLE INTO
SE GA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RAINFALL ON
SUNDAY. UPPER-JET DIFFLUENCE WILL AID SHOWER AND TSTORM FORMATION
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF EXTENDING WEST OF OUR AREA. AS A SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK THROUGH
OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A THICK CLOUD
CANOPY WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY HOWEVER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
1000-1200 CAPE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH 40 KTS 0-6 KM
SHEAR. THEREFORE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THE INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY BE REALIZED. RAIN AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD AT 2-3 INCHES FOR INLAND SE GA AND NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER SE. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN FINALLY CLEARS OUT OF THE FORECAST BY MONDAY MORNING. LOWS
WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE
A WARM UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW
80S DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. SOME INDICATION BY THE
MODELS THAT A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIGHT LIFT NORTH AND
INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE ALONG THE EASTERNMOST COAST OF FL ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THE NEXT WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR RAIN DOES NOT
OCCUR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AT THE END OF THE WEEK
WHEN A FRONT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY GET NEAR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE BEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS BEFORE 18Z WILL BE AT KSSI AND KGNV. FOR NOW...PUT
VCTS IN AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 14-15Z. LIGHT WINDS TO LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY S TO SE WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 65 74 64 75 / 50 80 40 90
SSI 62 72 63 73 / 30 60 30 80
JAX 65 77 66 78 / 40 50 20 80
SGJ 65 78 67 78 / 50 50 20 70
GNV 66 80 67 80 / 50 50 20 70
OCF 67 82 67 83 / 50 50 20 60
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
KENNEDY/WALSH/NELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
459 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
455 PM UPDATE...DECIDED TO LET THE WINTER STORM WARNING EXPIRE AS
STEADY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE COMING TO AN END. SOME POCKETS OF
SLEET ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER TRAVEL HAZARDS THROUGH THE EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STAYED WITH THE HRRR 3KM AND GEM MODEL BLEND FOR PRECIP AND TEMPS
FOR THIS PACKAGE. ADDITIONAL ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THE ICING THREAT WILL END BY EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRES PULLS
TOWARD NEW BRUNSWICK W/SOME SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS COLD AIR MOVES
IN AT MID LEVELS. LLVLS WILL COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. NNW WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW BRUNSWICK W/SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE NO MORE THAN 1/2 INCH. TEMPS WILL FALL
BACK W/SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS READINGS HIT THE MID AND
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME RE-FREEZING OF SURFACES OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC ON
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING, BUT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. THIS
BEING BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEEP LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER
MOVING ON-SHORE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE ON THE COAST AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF ICE PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE INCREASE TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING AS NEXT WEATHER MAKER
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. A SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO A LOW DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...WHICH COULD SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASE THE RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WIND SPEEDS. THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW BUT THE SREF/NAM/EC/CMC
ALL HAVE THE COASTAL LOW BECOMING THE PRIMARY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE QPF FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND WET SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN SUGGEST A WET SNOW EVENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IT WILL BE ABOVE 10 DEGREES COLDER ON TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SHOULD
BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. NOT SO SURE
ABOUT NORTHERN MAINE AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. VFR ALL TERMINALS FOR SATURDAY W/A
TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR THE FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS N OF KHUL.
SHORT TERM: LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER EXPECTED BY SUNDAY WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME IFR CEILINGS. CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS NNW WINDS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PICK UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. A SWELL
COMPONENT IS THERE WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING 5-6 FT. EXPECTING WIND
SPEEDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT W/GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS EVENING AND
THEN FALL OFF BY EARLY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS WILL FALL BACK DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW
SCA. WE ARE WATCHING FOR A POSSIBLE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ON MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME ON
THIS STORM.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUMONT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUMONT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
346 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS HAS TURNED TO A FREEZING RAIN
THREAT INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF PRECIP RIDES ACROSS
THE REGION W/LOW PRES MOVING E AND DECENT MID LEVEL PUNCH. WINTER
STORM WARNING REMAINS UP THROUGH 5 PM HITTING THE ICING THREAT
MORE. LET THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE HOULTON-MILLINOCKET-LINCOLN
REGION EXPIRE AS ICING THREAT LESSENED AND TEMPS RISING. STAYED
WITH THE HRRR 3KM AND GEM MODEL BLEND FOR PRECIP AND TEMPS FOR
THIS PACKAGE. ADDITIONAL ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THE ICING THREAT WILL END BY EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRES PULLS
TOWARD NEW BRUNSWICK W/SOME SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS COLD AIR MOVES
IN AT MID LEVELS. LLVLS WILL COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. NNW WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW BRUNSWICK W/SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE NO MORE THAN 1/2 INCH. TEMPS WILL FALL
BACK W/SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS READINGS HIT THE MID AND
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME RE-FREEZING OF SURFACES OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC ON
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING, BUT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. THIS
BEING BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEEP LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER
MOVING ON-SHORE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE ON THE COAST AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF ICE PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE INCREASE TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING AS NEXT WEATHER MAKER
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. A SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO A LOW DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...WHICH COULD SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASE THE RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WIND SPEEDS. THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW BUT THE SREF/NAM/EC/CMC
ALL HAVE THE COASTAL LOW BECOMING THE PRIMARY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE QPF FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND WET SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN SUGGEST A WET SNOW EVENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IT WILL BE ABOVE 10 DEGREES COLDER ON TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SHOULD
BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. NOT SO SURE
ABOUT NORTHERN MAINE AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. VFR ALL TERMINALS FOR SATURDAY W/A
TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR THE FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS N OF KHUL.
SHORT TERM: LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER EXPECTED BY SUNDAY WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME IFR CEILINGS. CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS NNW WINDS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PICK UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. A SWELL
COMPONENT IS THERE WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING 5-6 FT. EXPECTING WIND
SPEEDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT W/GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS EVENING AND
THEN FALL OFF BY EARLY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS WILL FALL BACK DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW
SCA. WE ARE WATCHING FOR A POSSIBLE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ON MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME ON
THIS STORM.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUMONT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUMONT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
217 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING
INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SN
YDAY OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA. THE INCOMING AIRMASS ABOVE ASSOCIATED
SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM JAMES BAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
RATHER DRY PER THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS...WHERE THE PWATS WERE GENERALLY
ABOUT 0.20 INCH /ABOUT 65 PCT OF NORMAL/. ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS LINGER
OVER THE FAR ERN CWA...THE COMBINATION OF THE LLVL ACYC FLOW/LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS RESULTING IN MOCLR SKIES W TO NW
MN...WHERE SOME MID AND HI CLDS ARE PRESENT IN THE WAA PATTERN AHEAD
OF A PAIR OF SHRTWVS...ONE MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS/ FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPR MI HAVE FALLEN AS
LO AS THE SINGLE NUMBERS EARLY THIS MRNG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY UNDER
PASSSING HI PRES RDG AND THEN POPS/PTYPE LATE TNGT AS THE WAA
PATTERN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM SHRTWVS FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING RDG INTO
THE WRN GREAT LKS.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM HI/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE CWA FM THE
W...THE VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS WL ENSURE
DRY WX. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI PRES
SHIFTING OVER LK HURON LATE IN THE DAY IS FCST TO ADVECT SOME WARMER
AIR INTO THE UPR LKS AND LIFT H85 TEMPS TO ARND 0C BY 00Z SAT.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 40S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE
OF THE GREAT LKS...MAINLY LK MI.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME DPVA AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SRN SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS /H825-625/ MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA
OVERNGT AS SFC LO PRES TROF/COLD FNT MOVES INTO WRN LK SUP BY 12Z
SAT. HOW QUICKLY THIS DYNAMIC SUPPORT CAN OVERCOME THE LLVL DRY AIR
TO PRODUCE PCPN IS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES SOMEWHAT
SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THUS BREAKS PCPN OUT A LITTLE
FASTER... BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH
IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS THAT WL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA...
WL TEND TOWARD THE SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM/
LOCAL WRF-ARW. PTYPE FCST IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...BUT FCST THERMAL
FIELDS SUG A MIX OF RA AND SN WL BE PSBL. CONCERN IS LINGERING NEAR
SFC DRY AIR COULD ALLOW FOR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LOWER WBLB
TEMPS AOB 32F. IF PCPN IS IN THE FORM OF RA...SOME FREEZING RA COULD
OCCUR. THE GOOD NEWS IS QPF THRU 12Z SAT WL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...SO ANY SN/ICE ACCUM WL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 549 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE NRN STREAM DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES...WILL
GIVE WAY TO RIDGING AS A SRN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS WEEKEND WILL CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALONG/AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES WILL ALLOW PCPN TO SLOWLY EXPAND FROM
WRN UPPER MI SAT MORNING INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AFTER INITIAL PUSH OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND
BETTER 285-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT EARLY SAT MORNING MODELS SUGGEST
WEAK FORCING DURING DAY ON SAT UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY LEAD TO
LULL IN PCPN. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES STILL INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF -SN/LIGHT FZRA EARLY SAT...MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF...BUT BY LATE SAT MORNING/EARLY SAT AFTERNOON ANY
LIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE IN FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST PLACES. ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE FROM NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ASSOC DEEP Q-LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND INCREASING 285-290K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING PCPN CHCS BY SAT
EVENING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WOULD FAVOR THE WEST HALF FOR GREATER
QPF AMOUNTS AND THUS LIKELY POPS FOR SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP WITH IDEA
OF HIGHER CHC POPS EAST HALF. PTYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PCPN POSSIBLY STAYING MORE RAIN OVER THE FCST
AREA THRU SAT NIGHT...BUT YET MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD INDICATE PCPN
CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW WEST HALF LATE SAT NIGHT WITH A
SNOW/RAIN MIX EAST HALF. WL SIDE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...BUT
COULD EASILY SEE WARMER NAM VERIFYING SAT NIGHT IF TEMPS REACH INTO
THE 40S DURING DAY ON SAT AND THEN THICKER CLOUDS ROLL IN TOWARD
EVENING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
SUN-TUE...AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN DEPARTS OVER THE EAST SUN
MORNING WITH EXITING LOW PRES AREA AND ASSOC TROUGH...EXPECT
CLEARING AND DRYING FROM WEST DURING DAY ON SUN WITH A SFC RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WEAK NRN STREAM SHRTWVS WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN.
INCREASING WAA AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR INTO UPPER MI. HOWEVER...SE FLOW AT SFC WILL TEMPER
WARMING...CONFINING WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS TO MAINLY WRN INTERIOR.
WED-THU...SW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL TROUGH LIFTING
EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR PCPN WED INTO
THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE INCRSG HI/MID CLDS INTO THIS EVNG...LLVL DRY
AIR WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST THE EARLY MRNG HRS ON
SAT. AS A LO PRES TROF APRCHS FM THE W...SOME RA/SN AND POSSIBLE
FZRA WL ARRIVE AT IWD/CMX AFTER 06Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT IWD/CMX...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
PSBL AT CMX TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WHEN THE PTYPE WL
CHANGE MAINLY TO SN AT THAT SITE. SINCE THE PCPN WL STAY W OF
SAW...EXPECT VFR WX TO PREVAIL AT THAT LOCATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE S AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS TONIGHT UNDER A BIT TIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THRU THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AHEAD OF A HI
PRES BUILDING INTO NW ONTARIO. AS THIS HI CENTER MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. A STRONGER S-SE
WIND UP TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP ON TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
HI CENTER TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
317 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SATURDAY DEALS WITH A COLD FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN RATHER
THICK THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... MAINLY CONFINED TO THE PINE RIDGE. WEAK RADAR
ECHOES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA... BUT WITH DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25F... ONLY RESULT IS VIRGA.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WORKS
TOWARD THE SURFACE. REMOVED MENTION OF SPRINKLES SOUTH OF NEB HWY 2
AS LIFT IN THE LOWER 200HPA DISAPPEARS. THROUGH 06Z... BEST
SATURATION AND LIFT EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND NORTHWEST
CHERRY COUNTIES... SO RETAINED LIKELY POPS FOR A SMALL AREA ALONG
THE SD BORDER. HRRR HINTS AT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST... SO
EXTENDED SCHC POPS SOUTH TOWARD KTIF AND EAST TOWARD KONL. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SWITCH TO SNOW AT MERRIMAN AROUND 03Z
AND VALENTINE AROUND 05Z. USED A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RA TO RASN
TO SN FROM WEST TO EAST.
SNOWFALL WISE... SOUNDINGS AT KVTN SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
BELOW 600HPA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIFT BELOW 800HPA... WHERE THE
DGZ GENERALLY LINES UP WITH 600-700HPA. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL
FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S WHICH WILL LIMIT SLR. START AROUND 10:1
FOR 06-12Z AND INCREASE TO NEAR CLIMO... 12-13:1... BY LATE MORNING.
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE AROUND 1 INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 20 WEST
OF KVTN AND A DUSTING FROM KAIA TO KONL.
HAVE WINDS PICKING UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE FROPA. NAM INDICATING
850HPA WINDS NEAR 35KTS AND A 1MB/HR PRESSURE CHANGE. MECHANICAL
FORCING WILL BRING MUCH OF THIS TO THE SURFACE AND WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. STRONG CAA IS EVIDENT WITH 850HPA
TEMPS DROPPING FROM 1C AT KLBF AT 06Z TO NEAR -5C BY 12Z. ALSO...
SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE
FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON HOW THESE FACTORS WILL BALANCE...
SO MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS. OVERALL... FORECAST LOWS ARE
VERY CLOSE TO MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY... MAX TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AS BLUSTERY NORTH
WINDS AND SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANY SUBZERO H85 TEMPS.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE GENERALLY 2-3F BELOW MOS GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 30S
NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH. NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK
LIFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY. KONL TEMP PROFILE MAINLY SUPPORTS SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON... BUT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND SFC WET BULB
ABOVE 0C... TRANSITIONED BACK TO RASN MIX.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE TAKES HOLD
ON THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST BLEND OF 4 GUIDANCE DATA
SETS PLUS BIAS CORRECTION PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SUNDAY. THE EKD...ECE...MEX GUIDANCE BLEND PLUS BIAS CORRECTION
FOR MONDAY PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FULL SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY AS SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT IN FROM A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE
WRN U.S.. WEST WINDS SUNDAY SUPPORT DEEPER MIXING THAN THE SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY. SO DESPITE THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT HIGHS MONDAY ARE FAIRLY MODEST. THE FORECAST IS DRY.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF ARCTIC AIR SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH PRODUCES LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDS TO NEAR 10C AT 850MB SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A HOT PROD REACHES INTO THE FCST AREA
TUESDAY AND H850MB TEMPERATURES SPIKE REACHING 16C TO 20C. THE GFS
IS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECM WHICH BACKS A COLD FRONT INTO NRN NEB.
A BLENDED APPROACH PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE 70S SOUTH AND 60S TO NEAR
70 NORTH.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A PIECE OF THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH
AND NRN PLAINS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL
BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NWRN NEB.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP AS A RESULT OF
THE HOT PROD TUESDAY. THE ECM AND GFS SHOW SOME SORT OF CONVECTION
FORMING AS A RESULT. MOST OF THIS IS EAST OF THE FCST AREA. THE
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH H500MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50 TO 70KT.
A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE FCST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME
AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT...500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -25C TO -30C.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE DEEP
LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATING THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO FORMING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO PULL LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS THESE DAYS MOSTLY IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S ARE BELOW NORMAL AS IS THE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM
CPC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN BKN SKY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA NEAR KCDR AND KIEN WHERE LIGHT RAIN MAY RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KVTN...KANW...AND KONL. WIND WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS IT
TURNS NORTHWESTERLY...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016
TUESDAY COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FIRE. THE GFS AND ECM BRING A
WARM SPOKE OF DRY AIR NORTH INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
83 WHICH COULD RESULT IN HUMIDITY NEAR OR BELOW 15 PERCENT. WINDS
BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWEST IN THE WARM DRY AIR AND INCREASE TO AROUND
20 MPH IMPLYING GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE ECM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
AND DELAYS THE DRY AIR UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...SNIVELY
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
358 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON
THE FRONT ALONG AND WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS STILL INCHING ITS WAY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING
CONVERGENCE EVIDENT IN A GROWING CU FIELD OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MLCAPE IS HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...WHERE DEEP MOISTURE IS GREATER AND PW
IS AROUND 1.25". SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE
AS THE CONVERGENCE INCREASES INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR...SO WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE HRRR SHOWS SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE 00-03Z AND
ACTUALLY CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z AS THE INDUCED ISENTROPIC LIFT
AROUND 295K TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT SATURATES A SHALLOW LAYER.
THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF SKIES CLEAR ALOFT..WHICH VISIBLE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS IS POSSIBLE...THEN SOME FOG MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHEAST WINDS TAKE OVER. LOWS 47-55.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL
OVER SC ON SATURDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ALONG THE
FRONT TOWARD THE NC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL US TROUGH. DEEPENING..BUT STILL RATHER
SHALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF LIGHT
RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...A TREND NOTED IN THE PAST
2 OR 3 RUNS OF MOST GUIDANCE. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH...AND THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM FRIDAY...
SPLIT STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND WESTERN NOAM WILL CONVERGE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE ASSOCIATED STRONGEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS WITHIN EACH BRANCH
LIKELY TO SPLIT CENTRAL NC. NONETHELESS...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP A
LINGERING HYBRID CAD REGIME OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUDY AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE RELATIVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG 1) ALONG AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE WEDGE
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN RAH CWA...AND 2) OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...WHERE DEEPER LIFT AND SATURATION FROM NORTHERN STREAM
INFLUENCE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND MAXIMIZES ACROSS WESTERN NC AND VA.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH TO
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN BOTH AREAS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN.
A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN MON AFTERNOON...WITH OTHERWISE CLEARING AND COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK...INCLUDING SOME MID TO UPPER
30S POSSIBLE WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE CENTER OF THE
INCOMING SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
THE PATTERN WILL TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK...AS A
BROAD/ELONGATED POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES FROM THE CA
BAJA TO HUDSON BAY...AND CONSEQUENTLY DIRECTS CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE EAST COAST. AN
ACCOMPANYING WAVY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS THU...AND SLOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST BY EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...YIELDING HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...SURGES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RUNS ATOP THE
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE
FRONT AND CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER FROM MVFR TO IFR. RAIN AND
DRIZZLE SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
OVER SC TOWARD THE NC COAST.
OUTLOOK: THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHALLOW OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22/CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON
THE FRONT ALONG AND WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS STILL INCHING ITS WAY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING
CONVERGENCE EVIDENT IN A GROWING CU FIELD OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MLCAPE IS HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...WHERE DEEP MOISTURE IS GREATER AND PW
IS AROUND 1.25". SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE
AS THE CONVERGENCE INCREASES INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR...SO WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE HRRR SHOWS SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE 00-03Z AND
ACTUALLY CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z AS THE INDUCED ISENTROPIC LIFT
AROUND 295K TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT SATURATES A SHALLOW LAYER.
THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF SKIES CLEAR ALOFT..WHICH VISIBLE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS IS POSSIBLE...THEN SOME FOG MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHEAST WINDS TAKE OVER. LOWS 47-55.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL
OVER SC ON SATURDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ALONG THE
FRONT TOWARD THE NC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL US TROUGH. DEEPENING..BUT STILL RATHER
SHALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF LIGHT
RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...A TREND NOTED IN THE PAST
2 OR 3 RUNS OF MOST GUIDANCE. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH...AND THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...
SUN AND MON: A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOVE
NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THE CAD AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
LINGER...AT LEAST ACROSS THE FAR NW...INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM ERODES IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS CAPPING OUT
IN THE MID 60S NORTH...LOW 70S SOUTH. THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT WRT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN THAT REGARD HAS INCREASED. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA WILL GET ON MON AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST. GENERALLY...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH AND THE RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MON...WITH MON NIGHT BEING DRY AND TEMPS
LOWERING. MON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SE. MON
NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT: A RETURN OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER
FOR MID-WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND
RIDGING ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TUE AND WED. LOWS
MODERATING FROM UPPER LOW 40S TUE NIGHT TO MID TO UPPER 40S WED
NIGHT.
THU AND FRI: ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY
EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU THROUGH FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...SURGES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RUNS ATOP THE
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
MEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE
FRONT AND CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER FROM MVFR TO IFR. RAIN AND
DRIZZLE SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
OVER SC TOWARD THE NC COAST.
OUTLOOK: THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHALLOW OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...22/CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
109 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THIS FRONT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT FRIDAY...
AT 13Z (9 AM EDT)...A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST WEST OF LYH TO MTV
AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY WERE
DIMINISHING AS ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...CLEARING WAS OBSERVED ON VSBY
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF NC TO PORTIONS OF THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THIS CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE EXCEPT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD STILL KEEP
TEMPS COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE
TO FORECAST HIGHS.
DESPITE WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LURK IN
THE VIRGINIA SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT...WITH CAPES FORECAST TO
REACH 100-200 J/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AS ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR
AND RAP...WHICH BOTH HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT...KEPT CHC POPS IN THIS REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.
FRONT SLOWS UP JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS THAT MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER
EASTERN SECTIONS. ALSO FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTH/NE THIS EVENING AND
THEN SE ACROSS THE SW LATE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WEDGING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THINKING THAT WILL REMAIN DRY WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP SOUTHERN SECTIONS
SO TRENDING MORE PC EXCEPT CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH
COOLING TO GET LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY FROST HEADLINES IN FAR SW VA AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH A COOL NORTHEAST WIND TO START THIS
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND OVERRUNNING CIRRUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...KEPT SATURDAY TEMPERATURES UNDER GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL LEVELS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND ALONG WITH
INCREASE LOW CLOUDS...WILL HAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD
IN THE 40S AND ABOVE GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY FOR TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE
DISPLAYING A SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE VA/NC COAST AND HAVE REMOVED
THE WEDGE FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THIS
REFLECTION AND PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA WILL
ENHANCE THIS WEDGE SUNDAY. FURTHERMORE...WITH NO PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE WEDGE...WE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE MET...WHICH IS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE MODELS.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNIFORM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE WEDGE
MAY ERODE SOME TOWARDS THE BLUEFIELD AND MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AREAS TO
POSSIBLE HIT 70F SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ADVANCE
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THE WEDGE OUT OF THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS BEGIN TO PHASE ON MONDAY
AS BOTH LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES MERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE WEDGE
BREAKS AND COLD AIR DOES NOT START MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TROF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ECMWF HAS A SHORT WAVE PUSHING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC WAS FAVORING THE TIMING AND MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY FOR RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AND INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COOLEST MORNING OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MVFR CIGS NOTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING
KBCB...KBLF...KLWB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THIS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MVFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AT 17Z (1 PM EDT)...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE NWS BLACKSBURG FORECAST
AREA...NEAR KDAN. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA...SO ONLY INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH IN THE
KDAN TAF.
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT
AND ON SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXTENT
OF THE CLOUD COVER AND HEIGHT...BUT INCLUDED VFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. FOR KBLF AND KLWB...UPSLOPE FLOW CLOUDS MAY RE-
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND IF THIS OCCURS...A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MAY GET STUCK WITHIN MVFR CIGS FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WEDGE SLOW TO EXIT.
THIS COULD BRING SUB-VFR TO MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ALLOWING LOWER
CIGS TO SCATTER OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LIKELY TO BRING A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR IN
LOW CIGS/SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BY
TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE AND
EVEN HIGHER WHERE SHOWERS PASS ACROSS. HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1/10 INCH IN MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 25 MPH EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PRECENT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PH
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS/RCS
AVIATION...JH/PH
FIRE WEATHER...JH