Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/25/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
119 AM MDT WED MAR 23 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT WED MAR 23 2016 HAVE STARTED THE WINTER STORM WARNING EARLIER THAN FORECAST FOR ZONE 35 WITH ALREADY HEAVY SNOW FALLING ACROSS BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES ABOVE 8000 FEET. ALREADY SEEING 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES REPORTED AT ALLENSPARK. COULD EASILY SEE THE 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RATES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY 3 INCHES IN ONE HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW. HAVE ALREADY INCREASED SNOWFALL TO 8-15 INCHES FOR ZONE 35 AND THAT MAYBE STILL TOO LOW. WILL ALSO NEED TO PROBABLY INCREASE SNOWFALL IN ZONE 36 AS WELL AND POSSIBLY INCLUDE THEM IN A WARNING. MORE TO COME... UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016 THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP ARE SHOWING THE 500 MB LOW BEING A SLOWER...STRONGER AND SOUTH. BECAUSE OF THIS...PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE INCREASED IN THE RAP MODEL TO 0.80 TO 1.50 INCHES IN PARTS OF LARIMER...WELD AND BOULDER COUNTIES. THE HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION. THE 18Z GFS AND NAM ALSO HINTED AT THIS AS WELL WITH A SHIFT WESTWARD AND AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AROUND 12Z. UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WELD COUNTY TO A BLIZZARD WARNING DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE EASTERN PLAINS TOTALS MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER...BUT THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016 AND AWAY WE GO. FIRST OFF...THE RED FLAG WARNING ON THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE STRONG WINTER STORM IS STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY MIDNIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE GUSTY WEST WINDS AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH. MOUNTAIN SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH THE STORM QUICKLY EXITING THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE STATE TONIGHT IT IS FORECAST TO FORM A CUT-OFF LOW OVER EAST- CENTRAL COLORADO THAT MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO ACCELERATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE WIND WILL ACCOMPANY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE PLAINS TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL STRETCH FROM THE WYOMING BORDER DOWN TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PLAINS AREAS NOT COVERED BY A BLIZZARD WARNING. CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS...THE LOWEST LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE EFFECT THAT REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT ACCUMULATES. WINDS CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE THE MAIN JUSTIFICATION FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR ZONES. SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA AND 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY ZONE WHERE STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY...SO WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THAT ZONE. SNOW WILL BE LESS OF A PROBLEM IN THAT ZONE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OVER THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DIVIDE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016 THE WINTER STORM THAT IMPACTS THE REGION WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. SNOW WILL END FROM THE NW TO THE SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEAVING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST ON THE PLAINS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SNOW COVER AND WINDS THURSDAY. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED SNOWFALL TO THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BEFORE EXITING TO THE SE BY EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT QG BY SATURDAY WITH A WINDOW OF FAVORABLE UPSLOPE SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT BY EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 30S WITH 20S EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME POSSIBLE FOG FORMING DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE NEAR THE GROUND. AFTER THAT SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES WITH THE ONSET OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016 SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS 0900-1100Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...18Z. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. STORM ACCUMULATION HAS INCREASED AT KDEN TO 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH OTHER DENVER AREA AIRPORTS RECEIVING 4 TO 10 INCHES. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ040>046- 048>051. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ035. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ031- 033-034. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ038-039. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ036. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ047. && $$ UPDATE...ENTREKIN SHORT TERM...DANKERS LONG TERM...BOWEN AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1008 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WITH A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA...IT WILL BE MILD THIS EVENING...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY/... AS OF 1008 PM EDT...WITH A PERSISTENT S-SE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING UP THE HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE FAIRLY CLOUDY DUE TO A THIN VEIL OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE STEADY RAINFALL IS STILL WELL OFF THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN NY...SO IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR THE RAIN TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WON/T ARRIVE IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA UNTIL AROUND 2 AM...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL 5 AM UNTIL IT REACHES THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. IT MAY BE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE FOR THE RAIN TO REACH INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A CYCLONE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE AND THE WARM FRONT WILL HELP INCREASE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. THE H850 SWERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40-55 KTS TAPPING SOME GULF MOISTURE...AS PWATS SURGE A COUPLE OF STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE RAIN THAT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL AT TIMES. WITH THE THIN CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT...ESP AS CLOUDS INCREASE. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME RAIN ARRIVES...SO NO THREAT FOR FZRA OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE INCH OR SO RANGE. BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY BY LUNCHTIME WITH A FIRST SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION. A SECOND COLD FRONT OR SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -1C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST...AND -1C TO +4C SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY SPIKE UP A BIT WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE WIND SHIFT TO THE W TO NW. DEEPER MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE BASED ON THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE HSA. BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE SRN DACKS. 50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST...AND LOWER TO M60S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT. FRI NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND CHILLY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA. LOWS FALL BACK INTO 20S AND L30S WITH A FEW TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK. SAT-SAT NIGHT...A LOVELY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN QUEBEC. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 40S OVER THE MTNS. THESE TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5-7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT. SOME CIRRUS MAY START TO DRIFT IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S ACROSS THE ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A S-SW FLOW AT LOW TO MID LEVELS ON EASTERN SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING ALOFT...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 4 TO 6 DEGREES C BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DUE TO THE NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE AREA...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO DEPART...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THE MODELS AREN/T IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE 12Z ECWMF A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE STORM SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS WOULD IMPLY JUST A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE REGION FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD BE A BIT OF A MORE STEADIER RAINFALL EXTENDING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD EVEN AS SOME WET SNOW FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES WHILE THE PRECIP STARTS TO DEPART. FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. WILL GO WITH LOWS ON SUN NIGHT INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH A LIKELY CHC OF RAIN. WILL START TO LOWER POPS FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S FOR TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATE A PERIOD OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER...AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS ON TUES NIGHT WILL BE COOL...WITH 20S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS ON WED LOOK TO REACH THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WITH WARMER TEMPS ARRIVING BY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING RAINFALL DUE TO THIS MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA...MAINLY FOR KPOU/KPSF. RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY 07Z-09Z AND WILL BE STEADY FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD. IT SHOULD LOWER VSBYS/CIGS BOTH DOWN TO MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...WHILE SFC WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT 5-10 KTS...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 40-50 KTS AT 2 KFT. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO END...AND WINDS TO BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESP BY THE AFTN HOURS. CIGS SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT...AND VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN FOR ALL SITES BY THE AFTN HOURS AS WELL. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RAIN MOVING BACK INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A CYCLONE A COLD FRONT IMPACT THE REGION. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL TURN BREEZY AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST 10-20 MPH...BUT GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH. RH VALUES WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO UNDER 40 TO 50 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. A DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEXT MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A QUARTER TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THIS RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME PONDING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE STORM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE ON MONDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...FRUGIS AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
554 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES EAST TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES ON FRIDAY... FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE BULK OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH. 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN KEEP THE REGION DRY...BUT THE 12Z GFS HAS THE FRONT SAGGING JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES...AS WELL AS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT. LATEST HRRR KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AS WELL. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. GFS HAS ABOUT 1/10 INCH QPF FOR NORTHERN ZONES...AND THINK THAT IS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...WHICH HAVE NO QPF. THERE WILL BE A CUTOFF IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER BETWEEN DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. LOOKING AT THE DIVIDING LINE BEING FROM THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND...THROUGH NYC...AND INTO NE NJ. NORTH OF THAT LINE...GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND SOUTH OF THAT LINE...GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. EASTERN LONG ISLAND MAY RADIATE FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE PINE BARRENS. THE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN ZONES...IS IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH STAYS TO THE NORTH...CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES CAN BREAK UP FROM TIME TO TIME. THOSE AREAS COULD THEN RADIATE...RESULTING IN TEMPS COLDER THAN FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...THEN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NY/PA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...THE LOCAL CWA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRES OFFSHORE...A DEPARTING FRONT TO THE NORTH...AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. AN EASTERLY...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE MORNING...AND THIS WILL USHER A COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN NYC. COLD FRONT THEN PRESSES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODELS...WITH WITH NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IN GENERAL...NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE EXTENDED. AS THE MESOSCALE MODEL DATA BEGINS TO COME IN FOR FRI...IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT LAGS THE INITIAL PREFRONTAL TROF BY SEVERAL HOURS AND DOES NOT COME THRU THE CWA TIL FRI AFTERNOON. THE NAM IN FACT IS GENERATING SOME SBCABE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON...OF ABOUT 600-800 J/KG. GIVEN THAT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE MORNING SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE TIME THE FRONT GETS HERE...ACCORDING TO THE NAM...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED CHANCES FOR TSTMS ACROSS WRN AREAS AND SHOWERS ERN AREAS INTO FRI EVE. FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A MID 1020S HIGH BUILDING IN. A ROUND OF RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE MON INTO TUE AS AN UPR TROF SWINGS THRU AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THE ECMWF IS AGAIN MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...BRINGING LOW PRES THRU THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY JUST LIKE THE 12Z RUN YESTERDAY. VERY CONSISTENT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PRODUCING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z. STILL UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CEILINGS FALL TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES OF ANY LOW CEILINGS WILL BE NORTH OF THE NYC TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME..CONFIDENCE OF ANY IFR CEILINGS REACHING THE CITY REMAINS LOW...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WATCH TRENDS. WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THE LOW CEILING POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SEABREEZE IS THROUGH KJFK/KGON/KBDR...FLOW MORE WSW-W ELSEWHERE. GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20KT AT KEWR THROUGH AROUND 23-00Z...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING...THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME EASTERLY 5-10 KT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. .THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. S WINDS G20-25 KT POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR. .SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. .MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SEAS ON ANZ355 HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT...AND NOT EXPECTING THE SEAS TO BUILD BACK UP IN THE NEAR TERM. THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT. FOR ANZ353...EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL 6 AM AND EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ANZ350 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY AS SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT DURING THAT TIME. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS AT SCA LEVELS FRI...THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON THE PROTECTED WATERS FRI NIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...SO EXPECT A SCA TO BE NEEDED THERE POSSIBLY THRU MIDDAY SAT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE WEEKEND. LOW PRES WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE WATERS MON INTO TUE WITH SCA WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE. && .FIRE WEATHER... MIN RH VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...AND DRY FUELS...EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NE NJ AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY LATE THU NIGHT THRU FRI. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/JMC NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...MALOIT/BC MARINE...MPS/JMC FIRE WEATHER...MPS HYDROLOGY...MPS/JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
313 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES EAST TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES ON FRIDAY... FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE BULK OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH. 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN KEEP THE REGION DRY...BUT THE 12Z GFS HAS THE FRONT SAGGING JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES...AS WELL AS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT. LATEST HRRR KEEPS PRECIP TO THE NORTH AS WELL. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. GFS HAS ABOUT 1/10 INCH QPF FOR NORTHERN ZONES...AND THINK THAT IS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...WHICH HAVE NO QPF. THERE WILL BE A CUTOFF IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER BETWEEN DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. LOOKING AT THE DIVIDING LINE BEING FROM THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND...THROUGH NYC...AND INTO NE NJ. NORTH OF THAT LINE...GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND SOUTH OF THAT LINE...GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. EASTERN LONG ISLAND MAY RADIATE FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE PINE BARRENS. THE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN ZONES...IS IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH STAYS TO THE NORTH...CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES CAN BREAK UP FROM TIME TO TIME. THOSE AREAS COULD THEN RADIATE...RESULTING IN TEMPS COLDER THAN FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...THEN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NY/PA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...THE LOCAL CWA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRES OFFSHORE...A DEPARTING FRONT TO THE NORTH...AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. AN EASTERLY...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE MORNING...AND THIS WILL USHER A COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN NYC. COLD FRONT THEN PRESSES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODELS...WITH WITH NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IN GENERAL...NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE EXTENDED. AS THE MESOSCALE MODEL DATA BEGINS TO COME IN FOR FRI...IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT LAGS THE INITIAL PREFRONTAL TROF BY SEVERAL HOURS AND DOES NOT COME THRU THE CWA TIL FRI AFTN. THE NAM IN FACT IS GENERATING SOME SBCABE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON...OF ABOUT 600-800 J/KG. GIVEN THAT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE MRNG SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE TIME THE FRONT GETS HERE...ACCORDING TO THE NAM...ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE FROPA. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED CHCS FOR TSTMS ACROSS WRN AREAS AND SHWRS ERN AREAS INTO FRI EVE. FAIR WX FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A MID 1020S HIGH BUILDING IN. A ROUND OF RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE MON INTO TUE AS AN UPR TROF SWINGS THRU AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THE ECMWF IS AGAIN MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...BRINGING LOW PRES THRU THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY JUST LIKE THE 12Z RUN YESTERDAY. VERY CONSISTENT. KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST. CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PRODUCING FAIR AND COOL WX. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THROUGH 00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 8-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. ANY GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z...AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME EASTERLY 5-10 KT EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW LOW CIGS GET TONIGHT. SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS CIGS FALLING TO IFR OR LESS. BEST CHANCES OF ANY LOW CIGS WILL BE NORTH OF THE NYC TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME..CONFIDENCE OF ANY IFR CIGS REACHING THE CITY REMAINS LOW...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WATCH TRENDS. WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THE LOW CEILING GROUP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY GUSTS COULD REACH 25KT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY GUSTS COULD REACH 25KT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY GUSTS COULD REACH 20-23KT. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY GUSTS COULD REACH 20-23KT. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MONDAY... .THU...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TO START. THEN VFR BY AFTERNOON. .THU NIGHT-FRI...SHOWERS WITH OCNL MVFR/IFR CONDS. ISO TSTMS. S WINDS 15-20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LLWS POSSIBLE. .FRI NIGHT...BECOMING VFR. .SAT-SUN...VFR. .MON...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF RAIN. && .MARINE... SEAS ON ANZ355 HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT...AND NOT EXPECTING THE SEAS TO BUILD BACK UP IN THE NEAR TERM. THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL THE SCA FOR HAZ SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT. FOR ANZ353...EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL 6 AM AND EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ANZ350 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY AS SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT DURING THAT TIME. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS LIKELY AGAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS AT SCA LVLS FRI...THEN COND IMPROVE ON THE PROTECTED WATERS FRI NGT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...SO EXPECT A SCA TO BE NEEDED THERE POSSIBLY THRU MIDDAY SAT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THE WEEKEND. LOW PRES WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE WATERS MON INTO TUE WITH SCA WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE. && .FIRE WEATHER... MIN RH VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...AND DRY FUELS...EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NE NJ AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY LATE THU NGT THRU FRI. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/MPS NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...BC MARINE...JMC/MPS FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JMC/MPS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
913 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 .UPDATE...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SQUALL LINE CONTINUING EASTWARD PUSH OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. LARGE STRATIFORM AREA BEHIND LINE IS ALSO STARTING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SPREAD LARGE AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS FORECAST AREA 02Z-08Z...WHICH MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS WE COULD SEE GREATER DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS ACTIVITY MOVES OVER MORE STABLE AREA IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR GA COUNTIES. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POP TREND TO REFLECT HIGH VALUES OVER THE WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA NEXT FEW HOURS... THEN SPREADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WHILE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SCATTERED T-STORMS DEVELOPED...POSSIBLY WITH SOME HAIL...OVER OUR SE COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT IS ALSO ON WEAKENING TREND. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BUT DECREASE TO MVFR AS AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA SPREADS IN LATER TONIGHT. && .MARINE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY S TO SE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCEC CRITERIA OFFSHORE TONIGHT. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MODERATE RISK FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 79 64 76 / 80 70 40 40 SSI 64 76 64 73 / 60 70 40 50 JAX 65 83 66 77 / 60 60 40 50 SGJ 66 83 67 76 / 60 60 40 40 GNV 65 82 67 78 / 80 60 50 50 OCF 65 82 67 81 / 60 60 40 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ WOLF/GUILLET/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
843 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 .UPDATE... 00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION AND CURRENTLY IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO LIFT OFF ACROSS AL/GA/CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING AN EXTENSIVE QLCS CLUSTER OF STORM THIS PAST AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WORKING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NOW NORTHEAST GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING IS GOING TO BE VERY LIMITED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT...THIS LINE OF CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL MORE HOUR BY UTILIZING THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OWN PROPAGATING COLD POOL. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT A SOLID BAND OF RAINFALL REACHES OUR ZONES TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY LATER THIS EVENING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE AGREED THAT AT LEAST SOME FORM OF A CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE NATURE COAST. WHILE THIS ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE...CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...WHILE VERY USEFUL IN MANY WAYS...DO NOT ALWAYS HANDLE COLD POOLS VERY WELL. BASED ON HOW WELL THE LINE HAS BEEN HOLDING TOGETHER THE PAST FEW HOURS...EVEN WITH THE SLOW LOSS OF DEEP LAYER FORCING MECHANISMS...HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE THE FORECAST CHANGES TOWARD HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AFTER 03Z ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. THE INCREASE IN RAIN POTENTIAL DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE COLD POOL FORCING MAY KEEP SOME SHALLOWER CONVECTION ROLLING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT THE CHANCES FOR DEEP AND STRONG UPDRAFTS SEEMS UNLIKELY. BEFORE THIS AREA ARRIVES...WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH SOME MORE SCATTERED TYPE CONVECTION THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE PENINSULA...ASSOCIATED WITH A WAA REGIME AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE. WITH TIME THESE SCT STORMS HAVE MIGRATED NORTHEASTWARD AND NOW ARE GENERALLY ALL EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE CELLS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE...BUT RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WAA IS LIKELY TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST OVER THE INTERIOR ZONES INTO THE LATER EVENING HOURS. LATER TONIGHT THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE COMPLICATED AS WE WAIT TO SEE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD POOL CAN BRING THE LEFTOVER CONVECTION. THERE ARE JUST ABOUT AS MANY POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS TO THIS QUESTION IN THE GUIDANCE AS THERE ARE GUIDANCE MODELS. THE OVERALL PUSH SOUTH OF THE COLD POOL WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN...AND THEREFORE...WILL KEEP LIKELY RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL JUST HAVE TO UPDATE IF THINGS LOOK AS THOUGH THEY MIGHT PROGRESS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE I-4 CORRIDOR IS A SOUND DECISION METEOROLOGICALLY. COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...KEEPING OUR ENTIRE REGION IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR. SO...WARM...HUMID WITH MORE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXACT EVOLUTION WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG WE SEE THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND HANG OUT OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BUT THE OVERALL MODE SHOULD BE SEE BREEZE DRIVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MIGRATING SLOWLY INLAND WITH TIME. && .AVIATION... SCATTERED STORMS ARE PUSHING INLAND FROM TAF SITES AND SHOULD END AT KLAL BY 02Z. LINE OF STORMS WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM NORTHWEST LATE EVENING...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN END OF THIS STORM CLUSTER TO REACH KPIE/KTPA/KLAL. HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...AND WILL UPDATE FURTHER IF TIMING AND CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL ARRIVAL INCREASES. ELSEWHERE PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES KPGD/KFMY/KRSW LATE AT NIGHT. && .MARINE... A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH WINDS MOSTLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE MOISTURE...CLOUDS... AND SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME SEA FOG OVER THE COOLER WATER AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 71 80 70 82 / 40 50 30 50 FMY 70 84 70 87 / 30 30 20 50 GIF 68 83 69 84 / 50 60 30 60 SRQ 69 78 69 81 / 30 30 30 40 BKV 68 83 66 83 / 50 50 30 60 SPG 70 80 70 82 / 40 40 40 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
940 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL STALL NEARBY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... THURSDAY EVENING...WEAKENING BUT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUED TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. PER ONGOING TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS DEPICTED THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WELL THUS FAR...RAISED INITIAL POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR A FEW HOURS INLAND/SOUTH THEN FOLLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TOWARD THE COAST...TAPERING POPS TO LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE WITH TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER WEAKENING. THEN...IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION COMPLEX POPS DROP TO BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW...ONGOING CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND A POOL OF DOWNDRAFT CAPES 800-900 J/KG OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16/NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY SUPPORT SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION. IF THIS OCCURS...WE MAY BE DEPRIVED OF SOME MOISTURE MAINTAINED THE BEST HANDLE ON ADVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...30-35 KT 0-6 KM FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL PUSH PWATS TO 1.5-1.7" DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT APPROACHES AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD THAT IT MAKES LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE STALLING. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW EXTENSIVE MOISTURE BELOW 600 MB DURING THE MORNING WHICH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL OVERRUNNING...WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING. SO DESPITE CONSIDERABLE THETA-E ADVECTION...LIMITED INSOLATION WILL PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH MODEL OUTPUT VARIES...THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION. WE DID NOT MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ONGOING POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... KEEPING CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN SOUTHEAST GA. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE 30-35 KT BULK SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER WE BELIEVE THE RISK IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY...VERY TRICKY FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED. MOST MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE AREA WITH THE FRONT LINGERING FARTHER TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE DRIER OUTLIER... KEEPING THE BEST FORCING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE FAIRLY STRONG PERFORMANCE OF THE ECMWF DURING THE LAST FRONTAL SYSTEM OF SIMILAR NATURE...IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT IT. WE KEPT 20-30 POPS OVER NORTHERN AREAS WITH 40-50 FAR SOUTH. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL BUST POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL VARY BASED ON EXACT FRONTAL LOCATION AND WHETHER A FEW POCKETS OF SUN APPEAR. WE BUMPED VALUES UP SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON MODEL TRENDS WITH A FARTHER NORTH FRONT BUT WE MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH GIVEN THE 12Z ECMWF PROGS. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A DELUGE OF SHORTWAVES LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIFT NORTH AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE VORT ENERGY COMBINED WITH INCREASING JET DIVERGENCE AND PWATS APPROACHING 1.9" WILL YIELD GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. WE ARE SHOWING SOME LIKELY POPS IN SOUTHEAST GA ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH- END CHANCE ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES PASS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN ADVANCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END ONCE COLD FROPA OCCURS ON MONDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL INLAND. A WARMING TREND SHOULD THEN OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT TERMINALS BY 06Z...ESPECIALLY KSAV. EXPECT AMENDMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND KSAV. OTHERWISE...WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TIME THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...LIMITED PROBABILITY AND UNCERTAIN TIMING PREVENT A MENTION WITHIN TAFS. SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE REQUIRED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT PACKAGES. FINALLY...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MOST OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INTERMITTENT MVFR OR POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND WAVES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE THROUGH. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS COASTAL WATERS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS GA WATERS...FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM...DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT /LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS COULD NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM TO 4-5 FT BEYOND. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP OVER THE COOL NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS CLOSE TO THE WATER TEMPERATURES /MID 60S/ THIS SEEMS MORE UNLIKELY SO WE DID NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S WINDS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL JETTING BUT CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SWEEPS THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...SPR SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM... AVIATION...JRL/RJB/SPR MARINE...JRL/RJB/SPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
757 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THIS EVENING IS THE APPROACHING LINE OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST. IT HAS SHOT WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE CWA IS PRACTICALLY NIL. HRRR MODEL CAUGHT ON TO THIS CONCEPT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DESPITE THE LACK OF SURFACE INSTABILITY...WE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE DIVERGENT PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET TO HAVE SOME DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. ADDITIONALLY...A NOTICEABLE MESOSCALE VORTEX HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE STRONG CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA THIS EVENING...AND ITS REMNANTS MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...PROVIDING SOME MESOSCALE LIFT. DUE TO THESE TWO FACTORS...I HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR MARCH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. NOT QUITE WARM ENOUGH TO BE A RECORD HIGH MIN...THOUGH...WHICH IS 67 AT CAE. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND STALL JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MOVE BEFORE STALLING. THE NAM MODEL STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ALLOWS THE FRONT TO SHIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE CSRA. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN MIDLANDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FARTHER SOUTH. SPC DOES HAVE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF STORMS ON FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY MOVING EAST TO CROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF PRECIP SUNDAY THEN AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFF THE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FASTER GFS HAS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AFFECTING THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF HOLD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST GEORGIA IS SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARDS THE CSRA BUT RUNNING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING AS IT APPROACHES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS 00Z-06Z EXPECTED WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN REACHING AGS/DNL AROUND 02Z-03Z AND CAE/CUB/OGB 04Z-06Z. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED DURING THE 08Z-15Z TIME FRAME ALL TERMINALS...THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT OGB. FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL CIG IMPROVEMENT. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME RAIN CHANCES WITH MAINLY LATE NIGHT/MORNING MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AT TIMES SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS APPEAR TO BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXCEPT BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
705 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL STALL NEARBY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...LIGHTNING TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE UPSTREAM QLCS HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE DRIER/MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOST GUIDANCE COULD BE DEPICTING AN UNREALISTIC DISSIPATION OF MOST PRECIPITATION BEFORE ARRIVAL ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE CONSISTENTLY PUSHED SHOWERS AT LEAST INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EVEN SUGGEST THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HOLD TOGETHER ESPECIALLY SOUTH/WEST OF SAVANNAH...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION...THE WETTER HRRR SOLUTION APPEARS MORE REASONABLE AS TIME PASSES. AS A RESULT...BUMPED UP POPS AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. POPS ARE STILL CAPPED AT CHANCE...WELL BELOW 50 PERCENT...BUT THIS COULD PROVE TO BE CONSERVATIVE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS PUSH DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN GIVEN A POTENTIALLY WETTER SCENARIO...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ALTHOUGH REMNANT THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS AND WILL ADJUST FORECASTS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL PUSH ONSHORE AND CLIP THE UPPER CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THICKENING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A STEADY SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...NO COOLER THAN THE MID 60S MOST LOCALES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY SUPPORT SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION. IF THIS OCCURS...WE MAY BE DEPRIVED OF SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...30-35 KT 0-6 KM FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL PUSH PWATS TO 1.5-1.7" DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT APPROACHES AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD THAT IT MAKES LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE STALLING. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW EXTENSIVE MOISTURE BELOW 600 MB DURING THE MORNING WHICH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL OVERRUNNING...WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING. SO DESPITE CONSIDERABLE THETA-E ADVECTION...LIMITED INSOLATION WILL PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH MODEL OUTPUT VARIES...THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION. WE DID NOT MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ONGOING POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... KEEPING CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN SOUTHEAST GA. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE 30-35 KT BULK SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER WE BELIEVE THE RISK IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY...VERY TRICKY FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED. MOST MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE AREA WITH THE FRONT LINGERING FARTHER TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE DRIER OUTLIER... KEEPING THE BEST FORCING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE FAIRLY STRONG PERFORMANCE OF THE ECMWF DURING THE LAST FRONTAL SYSTEM OF SIMILAR NATURE...IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT IT. WE KEPT 20-30 POPS OVER NORTHERN AREAS WITH 40-50 FAR SOUTH. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL BUST POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL VARY BASED ON EXACT FRONTAL LOCATION AND WHETHER A FEW POCKETS OF SUN APPEAR. WE BUMPED VALUES UP SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON MODEL TRENDS WITH A FARTHER NORTH FRONT BUT WE MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH GIVEN THE 12Z ECMWF PROGS. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A DELUGE OF SHORTWAVES LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIFT NORTH AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE VORT ENERGY COMBINED WITH INCREASING JET DIVERGENCE AND PWATS APPROACHING 1.9" WILL YIELD GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. WE ARE SHOWING SOME LIKELY POPS IN SOUTHEAST GA ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH- END CHANCE ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES PASS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN ADVANCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END ONCE COLD FROPA OCCURS ON MONDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL INLAND. A WARMING TREND SHOULD THEN OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SREF PROBABILITIES FOR LOW CEILINGS REMAIN QUITE LOW. ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PROGRESS OF UPSTREAM SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. IF SHOWERS REACH THE TERMINALS... PERHAPS THE CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CEILINGS WILL INCREASE. FURTHER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR KSAV AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION...BUT TIMING/COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THUS...WHILE THERE EXIST MULTIPLE POSSIBLE SOURCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...THE PROBABILITY OF ANY PARTICULAR EVENT REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANYTHING OTHER THAN AN OVERALL VFR FORECAST. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD BE REQUIRED OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. FINALLY...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL JUSTIFY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INTERMITTENT MVFR OR POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND WAVES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE THROUGH. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS COULD NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM TO 4-5 FT BEYOND. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP OVER THE COOL NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS CLOSE TO THE WATER TEMPERATURES /MID 60S/ THIS SEEMS MORE UNLIKELY SO WE DID NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S WINDS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL JETTING BUT CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SWEEPS THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RJB/SPR SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM... AVIATION...JRL/RJB/SPR MARINE...JRL/RJB/SPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1252 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .UPDATE... 1151 AM CDT THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER MY SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS MORNING. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM A COLD 37 DEGREES AT UGN TO THE 40S INLAND. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE 60S...SO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY AS THIS BOUNDARY TRIES TO MEANDER A BIT FARTHER NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO DECREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. OVERALL...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE WEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND REALLY INTO WISCONSIN...WHERE A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVER FOR PRECIPITATION. FARTHER SOUTH OF MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS IT APPEARS THAT ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...I HAVE DROPPED POPS OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. KJB && .SHORT TERM... 338 AM CDT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... NUMEROUS CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA...TIMING OF PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDER POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SINCE LAST EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE ILLINOIS LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FA. VARIOUS HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO PUSH THE FRONT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WHERE IT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL PIVOTING LATER TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS. BASED ON MODEL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 925 MB...A 20-25 IS INDICATED FROM THE LAKE CO IL LAKE SHORE TO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 AT WAUKEGAN TO ABOUT 62-64 IN THE PONTIAC-LAFAYETTE AREAS. OBVIOUSLY A PRETTY BIG BUST POTENTIAL EXISTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE FIELD CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION TIGHTENS THINGS UP EVEN FURTHER. WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TRENDS...CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DISPLAYS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS WIDESPREAD RETURNS THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE FORECASTS SUGGESTED. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE BELOW 600-500 MB SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT DVN AND ILX...AND EXTENDING UPSTREAM THROUGH SGF AND LZK AS WELL. MARGINALLY MORE HUMID PROFILES WERE OBSERVED TO THE NORTH AT GRB/APX PRIMARILY DUE TO COLDER COLUMN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS EAST TEXAS FROM THE GULF... THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE IS GENERALLY LACKING UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF 1 INCH PWATS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE..SOUNDINGS MAINLY DEPICT SHALLOW SATURATION BELOW 750-800 MB WHICH APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF PRIMARILY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 700 MB WOULD PROVIDE A FORMIDABLE CAP FOR BOTH NEAR-SURFACE BASED PARCELS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND ELEVATED PARCELS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING UNTIL SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE BEST TIMING FOR A GREATER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY 40-50 KT 850 MB JET...AND INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH HELPING TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN AND ERODE THE CAPPING WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS. TIMING OF THIS BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AT OUR DIURNAL MINIMA FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...THOUGH WITH STRONG DYNAMICS/SHEAR AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR STORMS THAT CAN ROOT NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE WFO LOT CWA IN THEIR DAY 1 MARGINAL SEVERE OUTLOOK. SURFACE LOW THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LAGGING JUST BEHIND IT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE COLD AIR BEGINS TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW. THERMAL PROFILES COOL IN RESPONSE...EVENTUALLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX/CHANGE TO WET SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF THE I-55 OR I-57 CORRIDORS ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THIS OCCURS WITHIN TRAILING PORTION OF THE SYSTEM DEFORMATION ZONE...WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP STILL BEING PRODUCED...AND SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SLUSHY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD BRING ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO AN END THURSDAY EVENING. RATZER && .LONG TERM... 338 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF OUR MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM. LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY...THOUGH SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD IS PROGGED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DRY MOISTURE PROFILES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WHEN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...SUGGESTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS THROUGH 950-925 MB SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN WARMEST SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA...AND LIKELY ONLY LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SPLIT NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JETS FOCUSING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE NORTHERN LOW APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND MOVES ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...TRACKING FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TO NORTHWEST OHIO/LAKE ERIE BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS DISTANCE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLOWER AND MUCH DEEPER THAN 12Z ECMWF/GEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN AND HAVE BASED WEEKEND FORECAST ON A BLEND OF THE NON-GFS MODELS PARTICULARLY BEYOND THE SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STAND POINT...AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND WOULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY MODEST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIP POTENTIAL THEN LOOKS TO RAMP UP SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW AND INTENSIFICATION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG/WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. THERMAL PROFILES/THICKNESS FIELDS INDICATE COLUMN IS WARM ENOUGH FOR MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN...THOUGH DECREASING THICKNESS LATE SUNDAY WOULD INDICATE THAT A A MIX/CHANGE TO SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS DURING THE EVENING. AFTER RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH THERMAL FIELDS INDICATING HIGH TEMPS FROM THE LOW 50S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH...SUNDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONTAL ZONE BISECTS THE CWA. READINGS SUNDAY WOULD LIKELY RANGE FROM PERHAPS 50 AROUND ROCKFORD TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WOULD MAKE FOR CHILLIER TEMPS AROUND 40/LOW 40S NEAR THE SHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LINGERS TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MONDAY TEMPS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE...WITH TUESDAY TEMP RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE THOUGH COOLER ALONG THE LAKE. RATZER && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... MEANDERING STATIONARY FRONT HAS SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHEAST THRU THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE MAY SCATTER THE ASOS OBS BRIEFLY FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THE SFC-7KFT LAYER WILL MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER 23Z...ALLOWING RAIN AND FOG TO DROP CIGS TO IFR CATEGORY. THE FRONT DOES APPEAR TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND WILL KEEP GYY WINDS VARIABLE THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE SITES WILL SEE THE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. IFR DRIZZLE AND RAIN WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AS THE 997 MB LOW APPROACHES. THERE IS AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR THUNDER IN THE MID MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MEETS A QUICK UPTICK IN OMEGA VALUES THRU 15Z. BEYOND THAT...THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ON THURSDAY EVENING WILL PRESENT A BRIEF CHANCE FOR NON ACCUMULATING SNOW AT ORD. MM && .MARINE... 306 AM CDT MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS SAGGED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER NEAR THE FRONTAL TROUGH. THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTH AND GALES SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE. GALES SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE LAKE. FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY. GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779...1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1222 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1028 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016 Rather tricky forecast for parts of the area. Latest surface map showed the frontal boundary draped over the far northern CWA, generally along a Burlington IA to Watseka line. Temperatures north of the front area (Galesburg to El Paso) in the mid-upper 40s, while the remainder of the forecast area is mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s at 10 am. Latest high-resolution models as well as the morning NAM run show very little movement of this boundary through the evening, until low pressure over the central Plains rides along the boundary and and nudges it northward later tonight. Did some fairly extensive editing of the wind/temperature grids over the far northern CWA through tonight to try and account for these subtle differences, using the HRRR as guidance, and lowered highs today over the extreme north. Meanwhile, over in east central Illinois, extensive morning sunshine has allowed some of the stronger winds to mix toward the surface, and gusts near Champaign and Decatur have reached close to 40 mph. RAP guidance indicating this hole should fill in toward midday as some mid- level clouds move in from the west. Raised temperatures a tad in most areas given the strong southerly flow and temperatures already into the lower 60s. Some isolated showers tracked over the forecast area earlier, mainly near the Illinois River, and some more may occur this afternoon, but main time frame still looks to be tonight. Latest HRRR showing convective line forming over western Missouri around sunset and tracking east, reaching western Illinois toward midnight, a tad slower than earlier ARW/NMM runs. Made some timing adjustments on the rain trends for tonight as well. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016 08z/3am surface analysis shows 992mb low over western Kansas, with stationary frontal boundary extending E/NE to the southern Great Lakes. Regional obs suggest the front is generally along/south of the I-80 corridor, with all but the extreme NW KILX CWA in the warm sector. Front will remain stationary early this morning, then will tend to edge back northward a bit as low pressure begins to approach from the west. As has been noted for the past several days, little to no forcing will be present within the warm sector and forecast soundings remain unsaturated. While the NAM is trying to develop a 3000-4000ft cloud layer at 1500ft aloft, the Rapid Refresh maintains a much higher cloud deck and an overall drier profile. Current satellite imagery shows plenty of high clouds, with the nearest low cloud cover across east Texas into Arkansas. As a result, will side with the Rapid Refresh for the short-term forecast. Am therefore expecting a mostly cloudy but dry day across much of the area, with perhaps a few isolated showers from Peoria northward in closer proximity to the boundary. Will be another breezy day as well, with southerly winds gusting to between 25 and 30 mph across the southern two-thirds of the CWA. High temperatures will mainly be in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees...but will remain in the lower 60s across the far north around Galesburg and Lacon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016 Low pressure will track from Kansas City this evening to near Moline by Thursday morning. NAM develops a broken line of convection well ahead of the trailing cold front across western Missouri...then pushes it eastward into west-central Illinois toward midnight. While the airmass steadily destabilizes across Illinois, the primary instability axis appears to remain displaced to the west behind the convection. This will likely reduce the risk for widespread severe weather as the storms arrive: however, some of the storms may become strong, producing gusty winds and hail. Latest Day 2 convective outlook from SPC highlights locations southwest of a Canton to Lincoln line for potential severe. Will carry categorical PoPs for showers/thunder west of the I-55 corridor during the evening, then further east across the remainder after midnight. While primary line of storms will likely weaken and push into Indiana late tonight, the actual cold front will remain west of the Mississippi River until mid to late Thursday morning. As such, have continued likely showers and a chance of thunder across the board through Thursday morning. Once the front passes, a few showers will linger into the afternoon before coming to an end. After that, cool/dry weather will be on tap for Friday before the next system begins to approach from the west over the weekend. Considerable model spread exists, with the GFS being the most inconsistent model run-to-run. Have generally disregarded the GFS in favor of the ECMWF/GEM consensus which continues to show a system passing through Illinois on Sunday. Resulting rain chances are therefore highest from Saturday night through Sunday night, followed by a return to dry weather for Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016 Frontal boundary roughly along a KBRL-KPNT line is a focus for concern regarding winds at KPIA and KBMI this afternoon. High- resolution models show some drifting of this front a bit southward this afternoon, before pulling back north toward mid- evening. Gusty south winds south of the front turn east-northeast on the other side of the boundary. Have added a period of such a wind shift at KPIA for mid afternoon and early evening. KBMI is less certain and left the winds southerly there, but dropped off the gusts late afternoon with the boundary nearly overhead. Aside from this front, general trend much of the TAF period will be with gusty southerly winds, trending more toward the southwest late in the period as a surface low moves into central Illinois. Area of low VFR/high MVFR ceilings currently over the lower Ohio Valley and extending as far north as KMTO/KDNV. May see MVFR conditions develop at KCMI as early as late afternoon, but the overall thought is a mid-late evening development at the remainder of central Illinois TAF sites as some convection approaches from the west. Made some refinements in timing of the showers and scattered thunderstorms. Most should be out by 12Z with a temporary dry slot, but a few may develop again late Thursday morning with the arrival of the low. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1151 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .UPDATE... 1151 AM CDT THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER MY SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS MORNING. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM A COLD 37 DEGREES AT UGN TO THE 40S INLAND. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE 60S...SO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY AS THIS BOUNDARY TRIES TO MEANDER A BIT FARTHER NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO DECREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. OVERALL...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE WEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND REALLY INTO WISCONSIN...WHERE A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVER FOR PRECIPITATION. FARTHER SOUTH OF MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS IT APPEARS THAT ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...I HAVE DROPPED POPS OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. KJB && .SHORT TERM... 338 AM CDT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... NUMEROUS CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA...TIMING OF PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDER POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SINCE LAST EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE ILLINOIS LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FA. VARIOUS HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO PUSH THE FRONT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WHERE IT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL PIVOTING LATER TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS. BASED ON MODEL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 925 MB...A 20-25 IS INDICATED FROM THE LAKE CO IL LAKE SHORE TO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 AT WAUKEGAN TO ABOUT 62-64 IN THE PONTIAC-LAFAYETTE AREAS. OBVIOUSLY A PRETTY BIG BUST POTENTIAL EXISTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE FIELD CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION TIGHTENS THINGS UP EVEN FURTHER. WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TRENDS...CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DISPLAYS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS WIDESPREAD RETURNS THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE FORECASTS SUGGESTED. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE BELOW 600-500 MB SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT DVN AND ILX...AND EXTENDING UPSTREAM THROUGH SGF AND LZK AS WELL. MARGINALLY MORE HUMID PROFILES WERE OBSERVED TO THE NORTH AT GRB/APX PRIMARILY DUE TO COLDER COLUMN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS EAST TEXAS FROM THE GULF... THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE IS GENERALLY LACKING UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF 1 INCH PWATS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE..SOUNDINGS MAINLY DEPICT SHALLOW SATURATION BELOW 750-800 MB WHICH APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF PRIMARILY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 700 MB WOULD PROVIDE A FORMIDABLE CAP FOR BOTH NEAR-SURFACE BASED PARCELS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND ELEVATED PARCELS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING UNTIL SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE BEST TIMING FOR A GREATER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY 40-50 KT 850 MB JET...AND INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH HELPING TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN AND ERODE THE CAPPING WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS. TIMING OF THIS BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AT OUR DIURNAL MINIMA FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...THOUGH WITH STRONG DYNAMICS/SHEAR AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR STORMS THAT CAN ROOT NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE WFO LOT CWA IN THEIR DAY 1 MARGINAL SEVERE OUTLOOK. SURFACE LOW THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LAGGING JUST BEHIND IT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE COLD AIR BEGINS TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW. THERMAL PROFILES COOL IN RESPONSE...EVENTUALLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX/CHANGE TO WET SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF THE I-55 OR I-57 CORRIDORS ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THIS OCCURS WITHIN TRAILING PORTION OF THE SYSTEM DEFORMATION ZONE...WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP STILL BEING PRODUCED...AND SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SLUSHY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD BRING ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO AN END THURSDAY EVENING. RATZER && .LONG TERM... 338 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF OUR MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM. LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY...THOUGH SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD IS PROGGED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DRY MOISTURE PROFILES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WHEN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...SUGGESTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS THROUGH 950-925 MB SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN WARMEST SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA...AND LIKELY ONLY LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SPLIT NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JETS FOCUSING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE NORTHERN LOW APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND MOVES ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...TRACKING FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TO NORTHWEST OHIO/LAKE ERIE BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS DISTANCE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLOWER AND MUCH DEEPER THAN 12Z ECMWF/GEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN AND HAVE BASED WEEKEND FORECAST ON A BLEND OF THE NON-GFS MODELS PARTICULARLY BEYOND THE SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STAND POINT...AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND WOULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY MODEST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIP POTENTIAL THEN LOOKS TO RAMP UP SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW AND INTENSIFICATION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG/WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. THERMAL PROFILES/THICKNESS FIELDS INDICATE COLUMN IS WARM ENOUGH FOR MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN...THOUGH DECREASING THICKNESS LATE SUNDAY WOULD INDICATE THAT A A MIX/CHANGE TO SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS DURING THE EVENING. AFTER RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH THERMAL FIELDS INDICATING HIGH TEMPS FROM THE LOW 50S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH...SUNDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONTAL ZONE BISECTS THE CWA. READINGS SUNDAY WOULD LIKELY RANGE FROM PERHAPS 50 AROUND ROCKFORD TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WOULD MAKE FOR CHILLIER TEMPS AROUND 40/LOW 40S NEAR THE SHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LINGERS TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MONDAY TEMPS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE...WITH TUESDAY TEMP RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE THOUGH COOLER ALONG THE LAKE. RATZER && .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY MOVED JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THINK THAT CIGS WILL TREND UP SLIGHTLY TO LOW END MVFR AROUND 012 DIURNALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW. RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REDUCE CONDITIONS BACK TO IFR ONCE AGAIN. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF AN ON THROUGH THE EVENING AND SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WHICH MAY ALLOW PRECIP TO TAPER TO A LIGHT DRIZZLE. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK NORTH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. WHILE SOME MODELS BRING IT BACK THROUGH THE TERMINALS TURNING WINDS SOUTHERLY...MOST MODELS ONLY BRING IT UP TO GYY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. AS THE FRONT NEARS HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY FURTHER LOWER WITH FOG BECOMING A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. BMD && .MARINE... 306 AM CDT MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS SAGGED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER NEAR THE FRONTAL TROUGH. THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTH AND GALES SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE. GALES SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE LAKE. FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY. GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779...1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1028 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1028 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016 Rather tricky forecast for parts of the area. Latest surface map showed the frontal boundary draped over the far northern CWA, generally along a Burlington IA to Watseka line. Temperatures north of the front area (Galesburg to El Paso) in the mid-upper 40s, while the remainder of the forecast area is mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s at 10 am. Latest high-resolution models as well as the morning NAM run show very little movement of this boundary through the evening, until low pressure over the central Plains rides along the boundary and and nudges it northward later tonight. Did some fairly extensive editing of the wind/temperature grids over the far northern CWA through tonight to try and account for these subtle differences, using the HRRR as guidance, and lowered highs today over the extreme north. Meanwhile, over in east central Illinois, extensive morning sunshine has allowed some of the stronger winds to mix toward the surface, and gusts near Champaign and Decatur have reached close to 40 mph. RAP guidance indicating this hole should fill in toward midday as some mid- level clouds move in from the west. Raised temperatures a tad in most areas given the strong southerly flow and temperatures already into the lower 60s. Some isolated showers tracked over the forecast area earlier, mainly near the Illinois River, and some more may occur this afternoon, but main time frame still looks to be tonight. Latest HRRR showing convective line forming over western Missouri around sunset and tracking east, reaching western Illinois toward midnight, a tad slower than earlier ARW/NMM runs. Made some timing adjustments on the rain trends for tonight as well. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016 08z/3am surface analysis shows 992mb low over western Kansas, with stationary frontal boundary extending E/NE to the southern Great Lakes. Regional obs suggest the front is generally along/south of the I-80 corridor, with all but the extreme NW KILX CWA in the warm sector. Front will remain stationary early this morning, then will tend to edge back northward a bit as low pressure begins to approach from the west. As has been noted for the past several days, little to no forcing will be present within the warm sector and forecast soundings remain unsaturated. While the NAM is trying to develop a 3000-4000ft cloud layer at 1500ft aloft, the Rapid Refresh maintains a much higher cloud deck and an overall drier profile. Current satellite imagery shows plenty of high clouds, with the nearest low cloud cover across east Texas into Arkansas. As a result, will side with the Rapid Refresh for the short-term forecast. Am therefore expecting a mostly cloudy but dry day across much of the area, with perhaps a few isolated showers from Peoria northward in closer proximity to the boundary. Will be another breezy day as well, with southerly winds gusting to between 25 and 30 mph across the southern two-thirds of the CWA. High temperatures will mainly be in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees...but will remain in the lower 60s across the far north around Galesburg and Lacon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016 Low pressure will track from Kansas City this evening to near Moline by Thursday morning. NAM develops a broken line of convection well ahead of the trailing cold front across western Missouri...then pushes it eastward into west-central Illinois toward midnight. While the airmass steadily destabilizes across Illinois, the primary instability axis appears to remain displaced to the west behind the convection. This will likely reduce the risk for widespread severe weather as the storms arrive: however, some of the storms may become strong, producing gusty winds and hail. Latest Day 2 convective outlook from SPC highlights locations southwest of a Canton to Lincoln line for potential severe. Will carry categorical PoPs for showers/thunder west of the I-55 corridor during the evening, then further east across the remainder after midnight. While primary line of storms will likely weaken and push into Indiana late tonight, the actual cold front will remain west of the Mississippi River until mid to late Thursday morning. As such, have continued likely showers and a chance of thunder across the board through Thursday morning. Once the front passes, a few showers will linger into the afternoon before coming to an end. After that, cool/dry weather will be on tap for Friday before the next system begins to approach from the west over the weekend. Considerable model spread exists, with the GFS being the most inconsistent model run-to-run. Have generally disregarded the GFS in favor of the ECMWF/GEM consensus which continues to show a system passing through Illinois on Sunday. Resulting rain chances are therefore highest from Saturday night through Sunday night, followed by a return to dry weather for Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016 VFR conditions are expected into early this afternoon before we start to see a trend towards MVFR cigs after 20z based on the RAP soundings. Operational forecast models have been too aggressive in bringing low level moisture northward into our area today and have been backing off the arrival times with the last few runs. Based on the high res soundings off the RAP and HRRR, will bring cigs down to or just below 3000 feet starting in the 20z-22z time frame across SPI and PIA with later start times in our eastern TAF sites. It appears the more likely time frame for any TSRA will be towards 05z at SPI but will only keep VCTS going this far out in the forecast time frame. Gusty southerly winds will continue today and tonight with sustained winds at 12 to 17 kts with gusts to 25 kts at times. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1230 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .UPDATE... 1015 PM CDT LATE UPDATE ON A TRICKY FORECAST INTO TOMORROW. OBSERVED 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE AREA...SO LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT TO SLOWLY COME UP TO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE NORTH OF I-80 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...WHICH IS LIKELY STILL TOO HIGH FOR MOST AREAS. SUSPECT THAT POPS WILL BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED AS WELL UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PER LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING 00Z NAM. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT COULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE ENTIRE DAYLIGHT PERIOD. MARINE AIRMASS NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL SET UP JUST SOUTH OF I-80 COULD ENABLE SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE...AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD THE FAR NORTHEAST IL SHORE...WITH THIS SCENARIO POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY. SLOWED MENTION OF FOG IN THE HOURLY GRIDS TO THE PREDAWN HOURS GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OVERALL TAILORED GRIDS TO FAVOR STATIONARY FRONT POSITION A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MAIN SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST. RC && .SHORT TERM... 221 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... DESPITE CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SINKS SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER KANSAS. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SINK BY DAWN. THINKING THE FRONT WILL DIP INTO NORTHERN IL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BE AROUND THE I-88 CORRIDOR BY DAWN. WHILE THE WHOLE AREA WILL BE CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...OTHER CONDITIONS WILL VARY ALONG THE FRONT. AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TO THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS TO 15 MPH. WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS WILL LIE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SO CONDITIONS MAY DIFFER FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP. FOR RAIN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE FEATURE SATURATION THROUGH THE FREEZING LEVEL AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF OMEGA. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN/DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE FRONT/I-88 ESPECIALLY AFTER 4AM CDT. SOUNDINGS FURTHER SOUTH SATURATE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MINOR OMEGA VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING. CAPPED POPS TO THE CHANCE RANGE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN FORCING AND THE FRONTS LOCATION. ALSO EXPECTING FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE INVERSION FORMS. GUIDANCE FEATURES FOG FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE AND THINKING SOME OF THE FOG WILL MOVE OVER LAND WITH THE EAST WINDS. THE DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND MOIST CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN FOG. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME. JEE && .LONG TERM... 234 PM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... STRONG LAKE ENHANCED FRONT WILL LIKELY BISECT THE AREA WED AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SETTING UP CLOSE TO I-80 AND LIKELY A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NORTH OF THE FRONT BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE CHILLY LAKE WILL RESULT IN A VERY STRONG AND SHALLOW INVERSION...BENEATH WHICH MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED RESULTING IN A LOW OVERCAST. AS DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT CLIMB INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...THE MARINE LAYER DISPLACING THAT MOIST AIR COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BLEEDING INLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT NORTH OF THE FRONT. HIGHS TOMORROW NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...THOUGH POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE NE IL LAKEFRONT RANGING INTO THE 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. GUIDANCE ALL HAS LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY SUPPORT MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS LIGHT RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER ABOVE THE THICK STRATUS DECK. STEEP LAPSE RATES DO EXIST ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION...HOWEVER BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING LOOKS TO SET UP TO OUR NORTH OVER WI. SOUTH OF THE FRONT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK SMALL AND HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME THOUGH PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH. STRONG FRONT MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTH SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT BATTLING AGAINST THE COLD LAKE AS SURFACE LOW RIDES THE FRONT INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AGAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH FOG...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP NORTH OF THE FRONT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR PERHAPS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY USHERING IN COLDER AIR TO AREAS THAT MADE IT INTO THE WARM SECTOR...AND PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF CHILLY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SOME WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BIT OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT CHANCES LOOK LOW AND KEPT ACCUMS OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY RESULTING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AND RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF VARY IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY HANGS BACK IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO LOWER THAN AVG FORECAST CONFIDENCE. DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME AGREEMENT IN THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME RAIN THIS WEEKEND BEING IN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES WOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK IF ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT WITH GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVING THE TROUGH OUT QUICKER. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS FROM THE BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE. IZZI && .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS... CHALLENGING FORECAST ON TAP WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON WINDS...CIGS...AND PRECIP TIMING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED OVER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY SITTING BETWEEN MDW AND GYY AT 05Z. BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE TERMINALS. LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT EITHER OVERNIGHT OR AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE VERY QUITE A WIDE RANGE IN VARIANCE ON WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL START WITH SOME SUGGESTING IT SHOULD ALREADY BE RAINING WHILE OTHERS HOLD OFF WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS ON RADAR WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH-BASED ECHOES ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...LEANING TOWARDS SOME OF THE LATER TIMING FOR PRECIP ARRIVAL. LOW CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...AND ARE ALREADY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN INTO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. ONCE AGAIN MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THOUGH WITH SOME MODELS HONING IN ON THE 12-15Z TIMEFRAME WHILE THE CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL ERR SLOWER/LATER WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE THEME SO FAR FOR THIS EVENT...BUT WILL PROBABLY KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON PWK OB OVERNIGHT. FINALLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. WE SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW...HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW TOMORROW...THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD. WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR OFF THE LAKE THAT WILL SLOW ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...HAVE AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS STAYING NORTHEASTERLY FOR ORD...WITH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY FOR MDW AND ESPECIALLY GYY WHICH SEVERAL MODELS DO SHOW WILL TURN SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERLY FOR A WHILE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING. BMD && .MARINE... 234 PM CDT FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD COMING UP ON THE LAKE. DEEPENING LOW OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW OVER ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETTER CHANCE OF GALES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT NOW NORTHERN OPEN LAKE SO HAVE DELAYED START TIME OF THE GALE WATCH A BIT. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS A PERIOD OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND TIGHT GRADIENT WOULD SUPPORT PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES...PERHAPS HIGH END GALES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE GALE WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS THE OPEN LAKE. IZZI && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP TO WILMETTE HARBORS UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY. GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779...1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1140 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016 The 00z ILX and DVN soundings indicated plenty of dry air below 500 mb across the area. The cold front appears to have moved south to the Illinois-Wisconsin border, with a band of AC clouds showing up on radar along the front. The dry low level air will be tough to overcome in the initial stages of this precip event. Our counties look to remain dry through at least sunrise, so have removed all PoPs from the grids through 12z/7am. The farthest south the front appears to reach is around 18z/1pm tomorrow, when it approaches near northern Stark Co, then returns north as low pressure approaches western IL and southerly low level flow works to push the front back north. There is reasonable agreement in the 00z models that low level moisture below the 700 mb inversion will increase enough for some low clouds to develop toward sunrise or shortly after, especially along and north of I-74. Otherwise, a blanket of cirrus clouds will prevail overnight. That layer of clouds along with steady south winds will be enough to keep low temps well above normal in the lower 50s across the board. Overall, the forecast grids were in good shape, and other than the removal of precip, only minor adjustments were done to temp/dewpoint/wind grids. Updated info is already available. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016 Earlier mid and high clouds over the northern CWA has been lifting a bit northward this afternoon, but plenty more are advancing across Missouri and will overspread central Illinois through early evening. Wind gusts over 30 mph are becoming more common east of I-55 and the highest gusts the last several hours have been from Bloomington to Champaign, where they are now reaching 40 mph as of 2 pm. Over the Wind Advisory area of southeast Illinois, the gusts have been a bit slower to ramp up, but gusts to around 35 mph are more common. This is below advisory criteria, but the RAP and HRRR suggest a bit more increase the remainder of the afternoon, so will let the advisory ride for now. Latest surface map showing frontal boundary draped from northern Lake Michigan into central Iowa and into the central Plains. While the boundary will sag southward tonight, it is progged by all the models to only reach about the I-80 corridor by sunrise, with most of the models keeping any precipitation near or north of it. Have maintained some 20% PoP`s late tonight north and west of Peoria, as the GFS and RAP hint at a bit of development toward sunrise, but general thought is that the night should largely remain dry. Few changes made to low temperatures, with lower 50s prevailing over the entire forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016 One more breezy and unseasonably warm day is anticipated across central and southeast Illinois on Wednesday. It will be dry for the most part as well. The models have slowed a bit on the passage of an approaching storm system, with the GFS slowing most considerably and now close to matching the bulk of the other models. Have removed thunderstorm mention from the daytime hours Wednesday. With the slightly slower track of the system, the instability axis ahead of the system`s cold front does not reach the forecast area until well into the evening. Also, forecast soundings suggest strong capping in place until just ahead of the front. Have maintained high PoPs through most of Wednesday night, and kept thunderstorm chances in place until FROPA (late Wednesday night into midday Thursday). The precipitation associated with the system should pull east of the area before temperatures fall far enough to support much in the way of snow. Cooler temperatures, but still near normal for late March, will surge into the area to finish the week. The week should finish up fairly quiet weather-wise as well, although a frontal system approaching by late Saturday will bring rain chances back into the area. While some spread still exists, model guidance is starting to agree on a more progressive front, which would result in precipitation chances pulling out by Sunday night. However, given the lingering uncertainty/spread, left low PoPs in place into Monday. If the progressive front suggested by the latest model runs persists, Sunday night/Monday will end up dry. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016 A cold front draped across northern Illinois has drifted south to a line from the Quad Cities to Chicago. It is expected to stall out in that general area through early afternoon tomorrow, when it will begin a northward push in response to low pressure approaching IL from the west. Precipitation chances in our forecast area over the next 24 hours look to be limited by a dry airmass initially, then a strong inversion centered at 700 mb tomorrow will limit updraft potential during the afternoon and evening. Light rain chances through 12z tonight should remain north of our terminal sites, but borderline MVFR clouds will develop as far south as the I-74 corridor tomorrow morning and linger through the day. Have included prevailing MVFR clouds at PIA and BMI after 14z, with MVFR ceilings developing across the southern terminals after 20z-21z. The best instability is forecast after the end of this TAF period, as the cold front pushes across IL. Therefore have not included thunder in this TAF issuance. Thunder chances could begin to increase as early as 03z/10pm, according to instability params. Omega fields point toward potential for prevailing rain across the northern terminals after 24/03z. Only included VCSH for SPI and DEC tomorrow evening for now. Winds will be southerly throughout this TAF period, with a few gusts to 20-25kt still occurring the rest of tonight. Gusts to 25-30kt will return at all TAF sites tomorrow, with gusts continuing into early evening. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...BAK AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
143 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 RESOLVING NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ALONG WITH TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY. FOR TODAY...MID/UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH PRIMARY UPPER FORCING BEGINNING TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALES WILL CONTINUE TO RACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BUT WILL BE WEAK IN NATURE WITH BROAD CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW PERSISTING. A NOTABLE UPSWING IN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING HOWEVER AS A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. AFOREMENTIONED CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ROCKIES PV ANOMALY WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. AS FAR SOUTH AS LOCAL AREA...A COUPLE OF COMPLICATING FACTORS TO CONSIDER REGARDING TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF PRECIP CHANCES. FORECAST BUFFER SOUNDINGS/SHORT TERM MODEL PROGS DEPICT LOCAL AREA UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH MAY LIMIT DEPTH OF BETTER RH. BULK OF GUIDANCE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY OVERDOING NEAR SFC MOISTURE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE HRRR MAY BE A BIT TOO DRY WITH NEAR SFC/LOW LEVELS...HAVE GENERALLY BOUGHT IN ON LATEST HRRR TRENDS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING GIVEN FACTORS ABOVE. DID MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING EVEN ACROSS THE NORTH. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...MORE DIVORCED FROM STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. THICKER LOW CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO BE SOMEWHAT MORE DELAYED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...SO DID TREND TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW TO MEDIUM SIDE IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES HOWEVER GIVEN LOW LEVEL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW CLOUD/RAIN SHOWER TIMING. LAKESHORE AREAS MAY REMAIN ANCHORED AROUND 50 OR IN THE LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS. && .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 CRUX OF OUR RAIN EVENT WILL UNFOLD LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH/PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. GOOD CVA/HEIGHT FALLS AND STEADY WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION (PUSHING 295K MIXING RATIOS TO AROUND 8 G/KG) WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THAT TIME. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 50KT LLJ OVER OUR CWA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND MAGNITUDE OF RESULTANT THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN THIS LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT BUT MARGINAL STATIC INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND PREVENT ANY SEVERE CONCERNS. REDUCED STABILITY COULD HOWEVER LEAD TO SOME DECENT QPF TOTALS GIVEN DEEP LAYER OF STRONG OMEGA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW VALUES OVER AN INCH). AROUND 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALES...PARTICULARLY IN OUR NORTH. RECENT DRY SPELL HAS ALLOWED AREA RIVERS TO COME DOWN QUITE A BIT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS QPF WITH LITTLE TO NO FLOODING CONCERNS. OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST WITH THIS EVENT IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET SNOW TO MIX IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THIS ALSO CORRELATES TO LOSS OF BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE AS SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP AT ALL BY THE TIME SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH BETTER DEFORMATION LOCKED TO OUR NORTH AND QUICKLY LIFTING. EXPECT JUST A FEW SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST THAT WILL NOT ACCUMULATE GIVEN WARM/WET GROUND CONDITIONS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END BY FRIDAY MORNING AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND AVA/SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY BUILD. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL LOOKING DRY AND RELATIVELY PLEASANT. FRIDAY STARTS OFF COOL BUT SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND LATE MARCH SUN TAKES ITS TOLL. MUCH WARMER ON SATURDAY BUT WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME LARGE INCONSISTENCIES WITH HOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE BUT SHOULD BE JUST ANOTHER RAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 CONTINUED/MORE AGRESSIVE DELAY IN INTRODUCTION OF DEGRADED FLYING CONDITIONS PER RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT. STILL WITH TIME AGREESIVE TOP/DOWN SATURATION AIDED BY PROXIMITY OF STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING W-E ALONG TOLL ROAD...DOWN TO IFR MET CONDITIONS AND NEAR CONSTANTLY DEGRADED THROUGH THE DAY. LESSER CONFIDENCE FOR AS LOW CIGS AT FARTHER SOUTH INVOF KFWA AND HELD TO PREDOMINANT FUELING/ALTERNATE LEVELS. FURTHERMORE THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR TSRA ON THU /12-16 UTC AT KSBN TO 14-18 UTC AT KFWA/ WITH SLIGHTLY HIR PROB OF OCCURENCE AT KFWA VS KSBN...THOUGH TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR INCLUSION. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MUPRHY SHORT TERM...MARSILI LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...MURPHY VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
700 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 RESOLVING NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ALONG WITH TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY. FOR TODAY...MID/UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH PRIMARY UPPER FORCING BEGINNING TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALES WILL CONTINUE TO RACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BUT WILL BE WEAK IN NATURE WITH BROAD CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW PERSISTING. A NOTABLE UPSWING IN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING HOWEVER AS A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. AFOREMENTIONED CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ROCKIES PV ANOMALY WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. AS FAR SOUTH AS LOCAL AREA...A COUPLE OF COMPLICATING FACTORS TO CONSIDER REGARDING TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF PRECIP CHANCES. FORECAST BUFFER SOUNDINGS/SHORT TERM MODEL PROGS DEPICT LOCAL AREA UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH MAY LIMIT DEPTH OF BETTER RH. BULK OF GUIDANCE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY OVERDOING NEAR SFC MOISTURE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE HRRR MAY BE A BIT TOO DRY WITH NEAR SFC/LOW LEVELS...HAVE GENERALLY BOUGHT IN ON LATEST HRRR TRENDS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING GIVEN FACTORS ABOVE. DID MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING EVEN ACROSS THE NORTH. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...MORE DIVORCED FROM STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. THICKER LOW CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO BE SOMEWHAT MORE DELAYED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...SO DID TREND TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW TO MEDIUM SIDE IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES HOWEVER GIVEN LOW LEVEL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW CLOUD/RAIN SHOWER TIMING. LAKESHORE AREAS MAY REMAIN ANCHORED AROUND 50 OR IN THE LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS. && .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 CRUX OF OUR RAIN EVENT WILL UNFOLD LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH/PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. GOOD CVA/HEIGHT FALLS AND STEADY WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION (PUSHING 295K MIXING RATIOS TO AROUND 8 G/KG) WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THAT TIME. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 50KT LLJ OVER OUR CWA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND MAGNITUDE OF RESULTANT THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN THIS LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT BUT MARGINAL STATIC INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND PREVENT ANY SEVERE CONCERNS. REDUCED STABILITY COULD HOWEVER LEAD TO SOME DECENT QPF TOTALS GIVEN DEEP LAYER OF STRONG OMEGA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW VALUES OVER AN INCH). AROUND 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALES...PARTICULARLY IN OUR NORTH. RECENT DRY SPELL HAS ALLOWED AREA RIVERS TO COME DOWN QUITE A BIT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS QPF WITH LITTLE TO NO FLOODING CONCERNS. OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST WITH THIS EVENT IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET SNOW TO MIX IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THIS ALSO CORRELATES TO LOSS OF BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE AS SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP AT ALL BY THE TIME SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH BETTER DEFORMATION LOCKED TO OUR NORTH AND QUICKLY LIFTING. EXPECT JUST A FEW SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST THAT WILL NOT ACCUMULATE GIVEN WARM/WET GROUND CONDITIONS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END BY FRIDAY MORNING AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND AVA/SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY BUILD. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL LOOKING DRY AND RELATIVELY PLEASANT. FRIDAY STARTS OFF COOL BUT SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND LATE MARCH SUN TAKES ITS TOLL. MUCH WARMER ON SATURDAY BUT WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME LARGE INCONSISTENCIES WITH HOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE BUT SHOULD BE JUST ANOTHER RAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS BEGINNING TO INDICATE SOME IFR LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER ANY OF THESE HIGHER END IFR OR LOWER END MVFR CIGS WILL REACH KSBN THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...BUT WITH EXPECTED LACK OF ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT MAY TEND TOWARD AN OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO AT KSBN THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE MID-LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES...LOW LEVEL FGEN FORCING STRENGTHENS...AND RAIN POTENTIAL INCREASES. WILL MAINTAIN MORE SOLID IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES AND LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP WITH SECONDARY LOW LEVEL THETAE SURGE. SOUTH WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AT KFWA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARSILI SHORT TERM...MARSILI LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...MARSILI VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
345 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 RESOLVING NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ALONG WITH TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY. FOR TODAY...MID/UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH PRIMARY UPPER FORCING BEGINNING TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALES WILL CONTINUE TO RACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BUT WILL BE WEAK IN NATURE WITH BROAD CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW PERSISTING. A NOTABLE UPSWING IN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING HOWEVER AS A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. AFOREMENTIONED CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ROCKIES PV ANOMALY WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. AS FAR SOUTH AS LOCAL AREA...A COUPLE OF COMPLICATING FACTORS TO CONSIDER REGARDING TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF PRECIP CHANCES. FORECAST BUFFER SOUNDINGS/SHORT TERM MODEL PROGS DEPICT LOCAL AREA UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH MAY LIMIT DEPTH OF BETTER RH. BULK OF GUIDANCE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY OVERDOING NEAR SFC MOISTURE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE HRRR MAY BE A BIT TOO DRY WITH NEAR SFC/LOW LEVELS...HAVE GENERALLY BOUGHT IN ON LATEST HRRR TRENDS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING GIVEN FACTORS ABOVE. DID MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING EVEN ACROSS THE NORTH. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...MORE DIVORCED FROM STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. THICKER LOW CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO BE SOMEWHAT MORE DELAYED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...SO DID TREND TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW TO MEDIUM SIDE IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES HOWEVER GIVEN LOW LEVEL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW CLOUD/RAIN SHOWER TIMING. LAKESHORE AREAS MAY REMAIN ANCHORED AROUND 50 OR IN THE LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS. && .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 CRUX OF OUR RAIN EVENT WILL UNFOLD LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH/PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. GOOD CVA/HEIGHT FALLS AND STEADY WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION (PUSHING 295K MIXING RATIOS TO AROUND 8 G/KG) WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THAT TIME. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 50KT LLJ OVER OUR CWA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND MAGNITUDE OF RESULTANT THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN THIS LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT BUT MARGINAL STATIC INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND PREVENT ANY SEVERE CONCERNS. REDUCED STABILITY COULD HOWEVER LEAD TO SOME DECENT QPF TOTALS GIVEN DEEP LAYER OF STRONG OMEGA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW VALUES OVER AN INCH). AROUND 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALES...PARTICULARLY IN OUR NORTH. RECENT DRY SPELL HAS ALLOWED AREA RIVERS TO COME DOWN QUITE A BIT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS QPF WITH LITTLE TO NO FLOODING CONCERNS. OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST WITH THIS EVENT IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET SNOW TO MIX IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THIS ALSO CORRELATES TO LOSS OF BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE AS SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP AT ALL BY THE TIME SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH BETTER DEFORMATION LOCKED TO OUR NORTH AND QUICKLY LIFTING. EXPECT JUST A FEW SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST THAT WILL NOT ACCUMULATE GIVEN WARM/WET GROUND CONDITIONS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END BY FRIDAY MORNING AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND AVA/SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY BUILD. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL LOOKING DRY AND RELATIVELY PLEASANT. FRIDAY STARTS OFF COOL BUT SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND LATE MARCH SUN TAKES ITS TOLL. MUCH WARMER ON SATURDAY BUT WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME LARGE INCONSISTENCIES WITH HOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE BUT SHOULD BE JUST ANOTHER RAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A TIGHTENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL RACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH TODAY BUT SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO LINGERING BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE. THIS FLOW PATTERN AND CONTINUED EASTWARD MIGRATION OF UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHARPENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONT TODAY. MAIN QUESTION IN TERMS OF TIMING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS/RAIN WILL BE POTENTIAL OF RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER PERSISTING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED GENERAL IDEA OF PREVIOUS TAFS...WITH JUST SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED ONSET OF FUEL ALTERNATE CRITERIA TOWARD MIDDAY/AFTERNOON AT KSBN. BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL AFFECT KSBN...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AT KFWA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION INCREASE. DID TREND KSBN TO IFR LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL HOLD WITH TREND TO LOWER END MVFR AT KFWA TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT KFWA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS IS SOMEWHAT LOWER AT KSBN DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARSILI SHORT TERM...MARSILI LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...MARSILI VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1149 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .UPDATE... Issued at 1132 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 Updated the forecast this AM with the main focus being on winds and RH in the afternoon hours in the wake of a strong dryline surging across the area. Downward momentum transfer and extremely deep mixing along with the very strong wind fields aloft indicates a high likelihood for wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph to reach the surface. The best chance for this to happen will be in the region near and south of a line from Abilene to Junction City through Alma, Osage City, and Garnett. The main timing focus for this will be in the 2 PM to 7 PM window. Have also slightly lower the RH values for this afternoon into the 10-18% range. SPC has also extended the slight risk for severe weather into extreme eastern KS. Given the strength of this storm system, there is some potential for severe storms to develop, but the better chances at this time appear to be east and northeast of the local forecast area. It seems that we will most likely see thunderstorms initiate in the far eastern parts of the forecast area and not become severe until they move east of the area, mainly due to the amount of spinup time likely to be needed to get sustained updrafts amidst such powerful wind shear. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 07Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough moving through the central Rockies with the low beginning to close off. At the surface, Low pressure continues to deepen across western KS and eastern CO. The resulting pressure gradient and strong southerly winds have finally transported some higher dewpoints into eastern KS. With a very dynamic system progged to move across the area today, there are several concerns beginning with the winds. Both the GFS and NAM show a strong pressure gradient over the area through tonight. About the only relief from the strong winds will be when the surface low passes across northern KS and allow the winds to diminish briefly. Will continue the wind advisory for today across east central and parts of northeast KS for the strong winds ahead of the surface low. Will also extended the advisory through the night as well as expand it to include all of the counties as wind gusts around 45 MPH are expected behind the surface low. The strong winds will also create extreme fire danger today. See the fire weather discussion for further details. Thunderstorms chances look somewhat slim today although not impossible. The strong elevated mixed layer (EML) is likely to weaken as the upper low approaches and mid level temps cool. The strongest PVA looks to impact the area during the late morning and early afternoon. However forecast soundings show the EML capping the surface boundary until mid afternoon or around 21Z. Additionally there is the question of available moisture and resulting instability. As the system approaches from the west, low level winds should veer to the southwest pushing the deeper moisture to the east into MO. So while things don`t appear to line up as well as they could, there may be a narrow window when the dryline is pushing east that the cap weakens enough for convection to develop along it. Models suggest there could be around 1000 J/kg of CAPE along the dryline through the late afternoon and with strong deep layer shear, there could be an organized storm before they quickly move east of the area. The convective allowing high resolution models appear to be giving mixed signals for thunderstorm development. The NMM thinks storm will form along the dryline while the ARW keep the dryline mainly free of convection except for along and north of the warm front dryline intersection. The HRRR is just now starting to get far enough into the future but does not have any storm development through 21Z. The dryline is expected to push east of the forecast area around 7PM which would bring an end to the thunderstorm potential. Temps today are expected to warm into the mid 70s to near 80 for most areas. Will need to watch parts of central KS for possibly warmer temps with the dry slot working in with good insolation and deep mixing. Cold air advection is forecast to increase early this evening. Therefore lows in the lower and mid 30s appear to be on track. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 The mid range forecast for Thursday afternoon thru Saturday morning will be characterized mainly by decreasing wind fields as the pressure gradient with the departing low pressure system lifts northeast of the region into the Upper MS Valley and Western Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, isentropic downglide will work in behind the system as subsidence builds into northeastern KS vicinity. Friday return flow sets up over the Central Plains as an expansive area of high pressure slides off to the east of the area. The gradient over northeast KS will tighten again but not as strong as the current system has been for the past couple days. This is all in response to what looks to be a set-up where the PFJ exhibits split flow and the main northern stream begins to amplify at minor shortwave trough over the Northern Plains and the southern branch trough digs into the Inter-mountain West. This will likely cause winds to mix over the region to around 800mb and with a very dry atmosphere once again, probably will be looking at elevated fire danger. No headlines yet as there is some indication the winds may not be as strong, but nonetheless this will still create a situation where fire danger is present. Into the weekend and the extended time frame, the previously mentioned shortwave with the northern stream of the PFJ will send a weak boundary into the region which will essentially stall and act as a stationary boundary for much of the day Saturday bringing small chances of rain showers. However, with weaker lift and still a fairly dry atmosphere in the lowest levels, any significant precipitation is probably going to hold off until better forcing can be produced with the southern stream of energy. GFS and EC solutions do differ greatly with the deepening of the upper trough as it pulls out of the Southern Rockies. While the EC appears to deepen the upper wave more and associated surface low, it doesn`t really get organized until it lifts further east of the area. Meanwhile, the GFS matures the upper low sooner but not as deep. Therefore, if the solution of the EC verifies, it is possible to see heavier precip amounts over at least southern portions of the area mainly south of I-70. It doesn`t appear to be a set up for any great amount of thunderstorm activity for northeast KS as the better moisture resides much further south and east of the region as well as instability not being great. Also, cold air being wrapped around this system appears to be fairly weak and short lived with the main branch of the PFJ again off to the north of the region, so the likelihood of any significant snow with not great either with soundings suggesting the lowest 5kft being too warm for much snow and a lower likelihood of wet bulb cooling to take place. Perhaps the best area for this to occur is over northern portions of the area north of I-70. Monday and Tuesday are again dry with subsidence over the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1132 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 Main focus in the TAFs is wind speeds and timing of increases, decreases, and shifts. Have highlighted all of these within the TAF groups with moderate to strong confidence in the timing. There is greater uncertainty regarding potential for MVFR cigs and areas of precipitation late evening into Thursday morning. Could see a mix of rain and snow showers with a small chance for brief periods of reduced vis due to snow and strong wind combination. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 A VERY WINDY PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE 45 TO 55 MPH GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABILENE TO JUNCTION CITY TO ALMA TO OSAGE CITY TO GARNETT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM WINDS WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 18 PERCENT RANGE. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SHARPLY AT THAT TIME AND GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL DURING THIS WIND SHIFT WITH INCREASING RH AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. Friday there will likely be a risk of elevated fire danger as southerly return flow once again sets up over the region with mixing of drier dewpoints from around the 800mb level. This could bring RH values to at least the low 20s and possibly lower. Winds are currently borderline for actual headline conditions, so lower confidence in this portion of the forecast for now. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012- 020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ022>024-026-039-040- 056-059. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ008>012-020-021-034>038-054-055-058. High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ035>038-054- 055-058. Wind Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ035>038-054- 055-058. && $$ UPDATE...Barjenbruch SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Drake AVIATION...Barjenbruch FIRE WEATHER...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
618 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 07Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough moving through the central Rockies with the low beginning to close off. At the surface, Low pressure continues to deepen across western KS and eastern CO. The resulting pressure gradient and strong southerly winds have finally transported some higher dewpoints into eastern KS. With a very dynamic system progged to move across the area today, there are several concerns beginning with the winds. Both the GFS and NAM show a strong pressure gradient over the area through tonight. About the only relief from the strong winds will be when the surface low passes across northern KS and allow the winds to diminish briefly. Will continue the wind advisory for today across east central and parts of northeast KS for the strong winds ahead of the surface low. Will also extended the advisory through the night as well as expand it to include all of the counties as wind gusts around 45 MPH are expected behind the surface low. The strong winds will also create extreme fire danger today. See the fire weather discussion for further details. Thunderstorms chances look somewhat slim today although not impossible. The strong elevated mixed layer (EML) is likely to weaken as the upper low approaches and mid level temps cool. The strongest PVA looks to impact the area during the late morning and early afternoon. However forecast soundings show the EML capping the surface boundary until mid afternoon or around 21Z. Additionally there is the question of available moisture and resulting instability. As the system approaches from the west, low level winds should veer to the southwest pushing the deeper moisture to the east into MO. So while things don`t appear to line up as well as they could, there may be a narrow window when the dryline is pushing east that the cap weakens enough for convection to develop along it. Models suggest there could be around 1000 J/kg of CAPE along the dryline through the late afternoon and with strong deep layer shear, there could be an organized storm before they quickly move east of the area. The convective allowing high resolution models appear to be giving mixed signals for thunderstorm development. The NMM thinks storm will form along the dryline while the ARW keep the dryline mainly free of convection except for along and north of the warm front dryline intersection. The HRRR is just now starting to get far enough into the future but does not have any storm development through 21Z. The dryline is expected to push east of the forecast area around 7PM which would bring an end to the thunderstorm potential. Temps today are expected to warm into the mid 70s to near 80 for most areas. Will need to watch parts of central KS for possibly warmer temps with the dry slot working in with good insolation and deep mixing. Cold air advection is forecast to increase early this evening. Therefore lows in the lower and mid 30s appear to be on track. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 The mid range forecast for Thursday afternoon thru Saturday morning will be characterized mainly by decreasing wind fields as the pressure gradient with the departing low pressure system lifts northeast of the region into the Upper MS Valley and Western Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, isentropic downglide will work in behind the system as subsidence builds into northeastern KS vicinity. Friday return flow sets up over the Central Plains as an expansive area of high pressure slides off to the east of the area. The gradient over northeast KS will tighten again but not as strong as the current system has been for the past couple days. This is all in response to what looks to be a set-up where the PFJ exhibits split flow and the main northern stream begins to amplify at minor shortwave trough over the Northern Plains and the southern branch trough digs into the Inter-mountain West. This will likely cause winds to mix over the region to around 800mb and with a very dry atmosphere once again, probably will be looking at elevated fire danger. No headlines yet as there is some indication the winds may not be as strong, but nonetheless this will still create a situation where fire danger is present. Into the weekend and the extended time frame, the previously mentioned shortwave with the northern stream of the PFJ will send a weak boundary into the region which will essentially stall and act as a stationary boundary for much of the day Saturday bringing small chances of rain showers. However, with weaker lift and still a fairly dry atmosphere in the lowest levels, any significant precipitation is probably going to hold off until better forcing can be produced with the southern stream of energy. GFS and EC solutions do differ greatly with the deepening of the upper trough as it pulls out of the Southern Rockies. While the EC appears to deepen the upper wave more and associated surface low, it doesn`t really get organized until it lifts further east of the area. Meanwhile, the GFS matures the upper low sooner but not as deep. Therefore, if the solution of the EC verifies, it is possible to see heavier precip amounts over at least southern portions of the area mainly south of I-70. It doesn`t appear to be a set up for any great amount of thunderstorm activity for northeast KS as the better moisture resides much further south and east of the region as well as instability not being great. Also, cold air being wrapped around this system appears to be fairly weak and short lived with the main branch of the PFJ again off to the north of the region, so the likelihood of any significant snow with not great either with soundings suggesting the lowest 5kft being too warm for much snow and a lower likelihood of wet bulb cooling to take place. Perhaps the best area for this to occur is over northern portions of the area north of I-70. Monday and Tuesday are again dry with subsidence over the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued at 618 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 The NAM and RAP have been overdoing the stratus to this point. However there is a MVFR deck expanding across southeast KS, so will have to keep an eye on this as the GFS keeps these clouds just to the east of TOP and FOE. Think chances TS will develop near TOP and FOE this afternoon are to small to mention in the forecast at this time. Therefore think VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon. There are signs of an MVFR CIG moving in behind the front/dryline. Confidence in the NAM prog is limited but the GFS also suggests this. Am not sure how widespread light precip on the back side of the system will be so have only included an mention of VCSH for the overnight hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 Extreme fire danger is likely this afternoon as a dryline moves from west to east across the area and much dryer air mixes to the surface during the warmest part of the day. Because of this think min RH values could drop to between 10 and 15 percent for parts of the area. Combined with strong winds gusting between 35 and 45 MPH and the weather looks to be very unfavorable for any outdoor burning. Will keep the red flag warning going and expand it west to include all but Republic county. Winds across Republic county should not be as strong as they will be across the rest of the area. South winds ahead of the dryline will shift to the northwest during the evening. Friday there will likely be a risk of elevated fire danger as southerly return flow once again sets up over the region with mixing of drier dewpoints from around the 800mb level. This could bring RH values to at least the low 20s and possibly lower. Winds are currently borderline for actual headline conditions, so lower confidence in this portion of the forecast for now. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ009>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ022>024-026-035>040- 054>056-058-059. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ008>012-020-021-034. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Drake AVIATION...Wolters FIRE WEATHER...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
333 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 07Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough moving through the central Rockies with the low beginning to close off. At the surface, Low pressure continues to deepen across western KS and eastern CO. The resulting pressure gradient and strong southerly winds have finally transported some higher dewpoints into eastern KS. With a very dynamic system progged to move across the area today, there are several concerns beginning with the winds. Both the GFS and NAM show a strong pressure gradient over the area through tonight. About the only relief from the strong winds will be when the surface low passes across northern KS and allow the winds to diminish briefly. Will continue the wind advisory for today across east central and parts of northeast KS for the strong winds ahead of the surface low. Will also extended the advisory through the night as well as expand it to include all of the counties as wind gusts around 45 MPH are expected behind the surface low. The strong winds will also create extreme fire danger today. See the fire weather discussion for further details. Thunderstorms chances look somewhat slim today although not impossible. The strong elevated mixed layer (EML) is likely to weaken as the upper low approaches and mid level temps cool. The strongest PVA looks to impact the area during the late morning and early afternoon. However forecast soundings show the EML capping the surface boundary until mid afternoon or around 21Z. Additionally there is the question of available moisture and resulting instability. As the system approaches from the west, low level winds should veer to the southwest pushing the deeper moisture to the east into MO. So while things don`t appear to line up as well as they could, there may be a narrow window when the dryline is pushing east that the cap weakens enough for convection to develop along it. Models suggest there could be around 1000 J/kg of CAPE along the dryline through the late afternoon and with strong deep layer shear, there could be an organized storm before they quickly move east of the area. The convective allowing high resolution models appear to be giving mixed signals for thunderstorm development. The NMM thinks storm will form along the dryline while the ARW keep the dryline mainly free of convection except for along and north of the warm front dryline intersection. The HRRR is just now starting to get far enough into the future but does not have any storm development through 21Z. The dryline is expected to push east of the forecast area around 7PM which would bring an end to the thunderstorm potential. Temps today are expected to warm into the mid 70s to near 80 for most areas. Will need to watch parts of central KS for possibly warmer temps with the dry slot working in with good insolation and deep mixing. Cold air advection is forecast to increase early this evening. Therefore lows in the lower and mid 30s appear to be on track. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 The mid range forecast for Thursday afternoon thru Saturday morning will be characterized mainly by decreasing wind fields as the pressure gradient with the departing low pressure system lifts northeast of the region into the Upper MS Valley and Western Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, isentropic downglide will work in behind the system as subsidence builds into northeastern KS vicinity. Friday return flow sets up over the Central Plains as an expansive area of high pressure slides off to the east of the area. The gradient over northeast KS will tighten again but not as strong as the current system has been for the past couple days. This is all in response to what looks to be a set-up where the PFJ exhibits split flow and the main northern stream begins to amplify at minor shortwave trough over the Northern Plains and the southern branch trough digs into the Inter-mountain West. This will likely cause winds to mix over the region to around 800mb and with a very dry atmosphere once again, probably will be looking at elevated fire danger. No headlines yet as there is some indication the winds may not be as strong, but nonetheless this will still create a situation where fire danger is present. Into the weekend and the extended time frame, the previously mentioned shortwave with the northern stream of the PFJ will send a weak boundary into the region which will essentially stall and act as a stationary boundary for much of the day Saturday bringing small chances of rainshowers. However, with weaker lift and still a fairly dry atmosphere in the lowest levels, any significant precipitation is probably going to hold off until better forcing can be produced with the southern stream of energy. GFS and EC solutions do differ greatly with the deepening of the upper trough as it pulls out of the Southern Rockies. While the EC appears to deepen the upper wave more and associated surface low, it doesn`t really get organized until it lifts further east of the area. Meanwhile, the GFS matures the upper low sooner but not as deep. Therefore, if the solution of the EC verifies, it is possible to see heavier precip amounts over at least southern portions of the area mainly south of I-70. It doesn`t appear to be a set up for any great amount of thunderstorm activity for northeast KS as the better moisture resides much further south and east of the region as well as instability not being great. Also, cold air being wrapped around this system appears to be fairly weak and short lived with the main branch of the PFJ again off to the north of the region, so the likelihood of any significant snow with not great either with soundings suggesting the lowest 5kft being too warm for much snow and a lower likelihood of wetbulb cooling to take place. Perhaps the best area for this to occur is over northern portions of the area north of I-70. Monday and Tuesday are again dry with subsidence over the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1136 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 Main concern will continue to the be the wind through the period as tight pressure gradient will continue ahead of approaching surface low and then behind it. South to southwest winds of 18kts to 26kts with gusts to 35kts possible, then decreasing after 23Z as surface low moves through the area, then increase from the west and northwest in the 01Z-06Z period. VFR expected for much of the period with mvfr cigs moving into MHK around 03Z and should hold off at TOP and FOE until after 06Z. Precipitation confidence to low to include in tafs at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 Extreme fire danger is likely this afternoon as a dryline moves from west to east across the area and much dryer air mixes to the surface during the warmest part of the day. Because of this think min RH values could drop to between 10 and 15 percent for parts of the area. Combined with strong winds gusting between 35 and 45 MPH and the weather looks to be very unfavorable for any outdoor burning. Will keep the red flag warning going and expand it west to include all but Republic county. Winds across Republic county should not be as strong as they will be across the rest of the area. South winds ahead of the dryline will shift to the northwest during the evening. Friday there will likely be a risk of elevated fire danger as southerly return flow once again sets up over the region with mixing of drier dewpoints from around the 800mb level. This could bring RH values to at least the low 20s and possibly lower. Winds are currently borderline for actual headline conditions, so lower confidence in this portion of the forecast for now. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ009>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ022>024-026-035>040- 054>056-058-059. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ008>012-020-021-034. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Drake AVIATION...53 FIRE WEATHER...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
229 AM MDT WED MAR 23 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016 LATEST 00Z NAM AND MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL RUN SHOW PRECIPITATION STARTING A LITTLE SLOWER THEN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS THE STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT A BIT LATER. FAVORED THE HRRR OVER THE NAM REGARDING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION...THE NAM HOLDS IT FOR A CONSIDERABLE LENGTH OF TIME OVER PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHILE THE HRRR IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MATCHES THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. SO...HAVE EXPANDED THE BLIZZARD WARNING A BIT FURTHER EAST AFTER 18Z AS THE SNOW AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH PRODUCE 1/4 MILE VIS OR LESS. FURTHER EAST HAVE LET HIGHLITES ALONE BUT DELAYED THEM TIL AFTER 18Z. UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016 RED FLAG WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO THIS HOUR AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST WELL OVER 25 MPH AND RH VALUES REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016 UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW IN SOUTHCENTRAL WYOMING. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AND THEN INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THIS EVENING AND THEN START DETERIORATING AS DYNAMICS FROM THE STRONG UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST TOWARD SUNRISE. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MAINLY ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FA BUT MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. STRONG NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WARNING AREAS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. AREAS UNDER THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO SNOW. THE SNOW AND WIND SHOULD START DECREASING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND A BLIZZARD WARNING IN OVER THE NORTHWEST FA BORDERED BY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND A HIGH WIND WARNING IN AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW. HIGH WIND CRITERIA WILL BE MET ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH WIND SPEED WORDING WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGH WIND THREAT IN THOSE AREAS. SEE HIGHLIGHT DETAILS BELOW. THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPIRATION AT 00Z. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE VERY LITTLE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT WED MAR 23 2016 THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD...MAINLY AT THE BEGINNING AND TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN REGARDS TO THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE NOW TAKING THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. THE CRH INIT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND LOWER POPS FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE MODEL OUTPUT AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SO WILL MAKE NO CHANGES. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS NOW CUTTING OFF A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIKE THE ECMWF WAS DOING YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE. THAT LOOKS IN LINE WITH WPC FORECASTS. CONSEQUENTLY THE INIT ENDS THE POPS FASTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAS NOTHING FOR SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE INIT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT IN DIGGING/DEVELOPING A LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DO NOT START OUT TOO BAD AND THEN BECOME MUCH MORE DIFFERENT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SYSTEM AND DOES NOT MOVE IT VERY MUCH. CONSIDERING THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WE ARE IN PLUS THE MODELS TENDING TO BE TOO FAR NORTH AND PROGRESSIVE IN THIS PATTERN...WOULD THINK THE ECMWF IS GOING TO BE CLOSER TO REALITY. ALSO EVEN THE GEFS MEAN AND ITS INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS SUPPORT THE ECMWF MORE THAN THEY DO THE GFS. WPC FORECASTS FOR THIS PERIOD REFLECT THE SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF THINKING. THE INIT HAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THIS LOOKS FINE. WHERE THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT STARTS AFFECTING THE CRH INIT IS JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD WITH POPS BEING INTRODUCED. HOPEFULLY MODELS GET SOME CONSISTENCY BUT AT THIS TIME...A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY. OVERALL WILL MAKE LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO WHAT THE CRH INIT GAVE ME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016 A POTENT AND FAIRLY QUICK MOVING WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRATUS CREATING IFR CIGS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS WITH VIS <1/2 MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50KTS OR SO FROM 20Z-03Z. FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS SNOW WILL VERY SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO GOODLAND. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR KSZ001-002-013. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ003-014. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR KSZ004-015-016-027>029-041-042. CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ092. BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090-091. NE...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR NEZ079-080. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ081. && $$ UPDATE...99 SHORT TERM...FS LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1030 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016 LATEST 00Z NAM AND MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL RUN SHOW PRECIPITATION STARTING A LITTLE SLOWER THEN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS THE STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT A BIT LATER. FAVORED THE HRRRR OVER THE NAM REGARDING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION...THE NAM HOLDS IT FOR A CONSIDERABLE LENGTH OF TIME OVER PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHILE THE HRRR IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MATCHES THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. SO...HAVE EXPANDED THE BLIZZARD WARNING A BIT FURTHER EAST AFTER 18Z AS THE SNOW AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH PRODUCE 1/4 MILE VIS OR LESS. FURTHER EAST HAVE LET HIGHLITES ALONE BUT DELAYED THEM TIL AFTER 18Z. UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016 RED FLAG WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO THIS HOUR AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST WELL OVER 25 MPH AND RH VALUES REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016 UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW IN SOUTHCENTRAL WYOMING. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AND THEN INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THIS EVENING AND THEN START DETERIORATING AS DYNAMICS FROM THE STRONG UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST TOWARD SUNRISE. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MAINLY ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FA BUT MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. STRONG NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WARNING AREAS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. AREAS UNDER THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO SNOW. THE SNOW AND WIND SHOULD START DECREASING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND A BLIZZARD WARNING IN OVER THE NORTHWEST FA BORDERED BY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND A HIGH WIND WARNING IN AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW. HIGH WIND CRITERIA WILL BE MET ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH WIND SPEED WORDING WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGH WIND THREAT IN THOSE AREAS. SEE HIGHLIGHT DETAILS BELOW. THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPIRATION AT 00Z. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE VERY LITTLE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016 ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SNOW AND WIND WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM EXITS OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING FROM WEST TO EAST AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE SNOW CHANCES THROUGH AROUND NOON SATURDAY WITH RAIN MIXING BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ONCE MORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AND PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS KEEPS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THE ECMWF SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA. INITIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WEST OF THE KANSAS COLORADO BORDER AND 1 INCH OR LESS IN AREAS EAST HOWEVER WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE CLOSELY AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE HIGH PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016 A POTENT AND FAIRLY QUICK MOVING WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRATUS CREATING IFR CIGS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS WITH VIS <1/2 MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50KTS OR SO FROM 20Z-03Z. FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS SNOW WILL VERY SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO GOODLAND. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ001-002-013. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ003-014. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ004-015-016-027>029- 041-042. CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ092. BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ090-091. NE...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ079-080. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ081. && $$ UPDATE...99 SHORT TERM...FS LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...99 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1145 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 ...Forecast Update... Updated 1140 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016 Updated the forecast to include patchy drizzle in low clouds for the overnight hours. Radar imagery downstream indicates streaks of very light precip which is likely drizzle. 0Z NAM soundings indicate good low level moisture for drizzle through Fri morning. Updated 911 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016 Convection continues along a cold front this evening, which now has passed over I-65 and is heading into the Bluegrass region. Storms have shown a gradual weakening trend over the past few hours and expect that to continue with the loss of heating. Surface temps only in the upper 50s to low 60s ahead of the convection is likely not lending to much, if any, surface-based instability. Nevertheless, some gusts of 30-35 mph and brief heavy downpours remain on the table for the next couple hours in the Bluegrass, before all convection pushes east. Did go ahead and up sky cover tonight across the region as there is quite an expansive shield of stratus upstream rotating into the Ohio Valley. Updated 622 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016 Quick update early this evening to account for the latest storm trends. Convection has blossomed along the cold front, now pushing across northern portions of I-65. The storms have remained strong, but sub-severe given instability continues to remain meager. In fact, where convection has developed is the location that has yet to see much in the way of rain so far today so some surface-based instability has been able to develop. The storms over the next couple of hours will be capable of producing some small hail and winds to 45 mph. Can`t rule out a rogue severe cell, but think that threat has likely already peaked along with the diurnal heating cycle. .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)... Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016 The concerns this afternoon will continue to be the potential for severe weather, as well as gradient wind gusts. Gradient winds have been gusting mainly in the upper 30s to around 40. However, there have been some gusts as high as 45 mph. The wind advisory continues until 23Z, but will continue to monitor gusts as it may be able to be let go before then. The rain that has moved across central KY today has helped to stabilize the area. However, SPC mesoanalysis does show an area of slight instability across west central KY. In addition the 0-6 km shear values are around 60 knots across the region. Mesoscale models do suggest that the instability will spread eastward this afternoon into western portions of the forecast area before weakening towards the early evening hours. The HRRR continues to show strengthening of the line of storms right along the cold front into the evening hours. All things considered, there is still a slight chance for some strong to severe storms this afternoon with hail and wind gusts. The storms should move out of the area by around 03Z or so with some light showers continuing across the Bluegrass overnight. Rain should move out completely by daybreak Friday, with dry conditions expected Friday night. Temperatures will fall in the wake of the cold front overnight into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Despite the low temps, frost formation is not expected as winds will remain elevated overnight. Highs tomorrow will be much cooler, in the lower to mid 50s. Lows Friday night will dip into the mid to upper 30s. With light winds and high pressure, some frost will be possible early Saturday morning. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016 Saturday will remain dry with high pressure ridging in from the northeast. Temperature will warm into the 60s under mostly sunny skies. Lows Saturday night will be much warmer, in the 40s areawide. A trough will dig into the Plains on Sunday and cross the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms with this system still looks to be late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Given the dry weather for much of the day ahead of this system, temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The severe potential does not look overly impressive with this system, but a few strong storms will not be out of the question. The rain should move out on Monday morning. Tuesday through Wednesday look to be dry as high pressure builds into the area. In the wake of the system Sunday night, temps on Monday will be back in the 50s. We will then see a warm up through mid week with temps back into the mid to upper 60s. The next chance for rain will come Wednesday night into Thursday. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Updated at 723 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016 A cold front is right on the doorstep of BWG and SDF, and will be moving through near TAF issuance time. This will shift the winds to more westerly at these sites, and will bring an end to the precipitation once it moves through. LEX will still see some low cigs and showers until the front moves through, but the precipitation should come to an end there by about 03Z. Otherwise, there will likely be a return to VFR cigs immediately following the front, before MVFR cigs push into all sites once again overnight. It appears these cigs will be just low enough to get into the fuel-alternate range. Westerly gusts will slowly subside through the overnight hours as high pressure builds in. Cigs should slowly rise through the day tomorrow as drier air filters in. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........KJD/AMS Short Term.....EER Long Term......EER Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1046 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1046 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE ONGOING ISL/SCT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS IN THE INCOMING LINE OF CONVECTION. AS EXPECTED...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO DIMINISHING TREND OF THE LINE. AT THIS POINT...THE IS BECOMING MORE BROKEN IN NATURE WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND IS CONTINUING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. LOWERED MENTION OF THUNDER TO ONLY ISOLATED AS THE LINE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CWA...WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED AFTER 4Z. HOWEVER...IF THIS WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES...OVERALL POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL. THERE ARE STILL SOME GUSTS ALONG THIS LINE AS SOME OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE TAPPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SO 20 TO 30 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH AT LEAST 4Z AS WELL. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK FOR ALL OTHER PARAMETERS THIS EVENING. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS WELL ON TRACK WITH THESE CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. WILL LIKELY UPDATE THE ZFP TO REFLECT THE CHANGE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH HWO STILL SEEMS TO BE VALID. UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 HAVE BEEN UPDATING POPS AND WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TO CAPTURE THE MOVEMENT OF THE LINE OF STORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE STATE. EXPECT THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRIKES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WHILE GUSTS ALONG THE LINE OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...THERE REALLY HASN/T BEEN MUCH OTHER IMPACTS REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL KY THUS FAR. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO WARRANT LETTING OUR LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8PM. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE CHANGES IN POPS AND WEATHER WARRANTED A PACKAGE UPDATE. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 AT MID AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT THE NORTHERN END OF INDIANA TO EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ON SOUTHWESTWARD. SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT. THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OUT OF KY EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE STILL KICKING UP AT TIMES AT MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. WITH A NPW FOR WIND ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW...WITH STILL SOME SMALL POTENTIAL TO REACH ADVISORY OR LAKE WIND ADVISORY LATE TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ASIDE FROM CONVECTION...THE GREATEST WIND THREAT HAS FADED. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BRING STRONG WINDS...AND WE CONTINUE IN A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FROM SPC. SHOWERS WILL END WITH FROPA...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PRESENT A FROST THREAT IN OUR COLDER VALLEYS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE PATCHY FROST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND TWO PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THE INITIAL BOUT OF RAIN IS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WITH THE FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z ON SUNDAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO PERHAPS SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL STEADILY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO OUR EAST...TAKING ITS LIFT WITH IT. WE SHOULD THEN SEE AN EXTENDED BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY SETS UP SHOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THAT TIME. THE MODELS TRY TO BRING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN GENERAL THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WAS USED TO ADJUST THE MODEL BLEND FORECAST AS WE ARE NOW IN THE WARM SEASON WITH LESS COLD AIR TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD. THE FORECAST IS CALLING FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO ENTER EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...AS RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE RULE THE WEATHER ON THOSE DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL COOL OFF QUITE A BIT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS COOLER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM. WE COULD EASILY SEE HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY. THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE WEEK LOOK TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN THE MERCURY MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 842 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE LATE EVENING...BEFORE EXITING JUST AFTER 6Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED. SO FAR GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS AND LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN THE ONLY IMPACTS REPORTED. EXPECT THIS LINE TO AFFECT KSME FIRST...BETWEEN 3 AND 4Z...THEN WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT IN THE TAFS. AS WE CONTINUE TO LOSE HEATING AND INSTABILITY THIS LINE WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO A MORE WNW DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...STAYING GENERALLY BELOW 5KTS. SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MORNING...THOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JMW
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 911 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 ...Forecast Update... Updated 911 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016 Convection continues along a cold front this evening, which now has passed over I-65 and is heading into the Bluegrass region. Storms have shown a gradual weakening trend over the past few hours and expect that to continue with the loss of heating. Surface temps only in the upper 50s to low 60s ahead of the convection is likely not lending to much, if any, surface-based instability. Nevertheless, some gusts of 30-35 mph and brief heavy downpours remain on the table for the next couple hours in the Bluegrass, before all convection pushes east. Did go ahead and up sky cover tonight across the region as there is quite an expansive shield of stratus upstream rotating into the Ohio Valley. Updated 622 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016 Quick update early this evening to account for the latest storm trends. Convection has blossomed along the cold front, now pushing across northern portions of I-65. The storms have remained strong, but sub-severe given instability continues to remain meager. In fact, where convection has developed is the location that has yet to see much in the way of rain so far today so some surface-based instability has been able to develop. The storms over the next couple of hours will be capable of producing some small hail and winds to 45 mph. Can`t rule out a rogue severe cell, but think that threat has likely already peaked along with the diurnal heating cycle. .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)... Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016 The concerns this afternoon will continue to be the potential for severe weather, as well as gradient wind gusts. Gradient winds have been gusting mainly in the upper 30s to around 40. However, there have been some gusts as high as 45 mph. The wind advisory continues until 23Z, but will continue to monitor gusts as it may be able to be let go before then. The rain that has moved across central KY today has helped to stabilize the area. However, SPC mesoanalysis does show an area of slight instability across west central KY. In addition the 0-6 km shear values are around 60 knots across the region. Mesoscale models do suggest that the instability will spread eastward this afternoon into western portions of the forecast area before weakening towards the early evening hours. The HRRR continues to show strengthening of the line of storms right along the cold front into the evening hours. All things considered, there is still a slight chance for some strong to severe storms this afternoon with hail and wind gusts. The storms should move out of the area by around 03Z or so with some light showers continuing across the Bluegrass overnight. Rain should move out completely by daybreak Friday, with dry conditions expected Friday night. Temperatures will fall in the wake of the cold front overnight into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Despite the low temps, frost formation is not expected as winds will remain elevated overnight. Highs tomorrow will be much cooler, in the lower to mid 50s. Lows Friday night will dip into the mid to upper 30s. With light winds and high pressure, some frost will be possible early Saturday morning. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016 Saturday will remain dry with high pressure ridging in from the northeast. Temperature will warm into the 60s under mostly sunny skies. Lows Saturday night will be much warmer, in the 40s areawide. A trough will dig into the Plains on Sunday and cross the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms with this system still looks to be late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Given the dry weather for much of the day ahead of this system, temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The severe potential does not look overly impressive with this system, but a few strong storms will not be out of the question. The rain should move out on Monday morning. Tuesday through Wednesday look to be dry as high pressure builds into the area. In the wake of the system Sunday night, temps on Monday will be back in the 50s. We will then see a warm up through mid week with temps back into the mid to upper 60s. The next chance for rain will come Wednesday night into Thursday. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Updated at 723 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016 A cold front is right on the doorstep of BWG and SDF, and will be moving through near TAF issuance time. This will shift the winds to more westerly at these sites, and will bring an end to the precipitation once it moves through. LEX will still see some low cigs and showers until the front moves through, but the precipitation should come to an end there by about 03Z. Otherwise, there will likely be a return to VFR cigs immediately following the front, before MVFR cigs push into all sites once again overnight. It appears these cigs will be just low enough to get into the fuel-alternate range. Westerly gusts will slowly subside through the overnight hours as high pressure builds in. Cigs should slowly rise through the day tomorrow as drier air filters in. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........KJD Short Term.....EER Long Term......EER Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
419 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 WE CONTINUE IN THE SAME REGIME AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BEING IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTED IN GUSTY WINDS AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS FINALLY STARTED TO MAKE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLIMB IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY. HOWEVER...IT REMAINED DRY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH RH AGAIN FALLING BELOW 25 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS WILL FINALLY ACCELERATE TO THE EAST TONIGHT...AND PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES...GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE A COMEBACK. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH LENDS SUPPORT...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME BEING LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND FIELDS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY...AND COULD BRING STRONG WINDS. COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OUT COOL AND...ASIDE FROM A FEW STRAY RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...DRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND THE CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A FAST COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS...WILL LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 30 BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE MID 30S EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ELSE. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO FROST FORMATION IN MOST OR ALL OF OUR VALLEYS. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF...HOWEVER...AS THE AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY MODIFY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING MUCH WARMER WEATHER BACK TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WARM THINGS UP ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER ON SUNDAY...AS THE WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE OFFING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A MORE POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY START OUT AS TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE THAT WILL FORM ALONG THE WESTERN END OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND OUT INTO THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO A MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ONCE THIS HYBRID LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WE CAN EXPECTED ANOTHER PERIOD OF COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY. THE COOL DOWN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL QUITE PRONOUNCED...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY MAKING IT TO AROUND 60S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAXING OUT FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...TO THE LOW 60S ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS AROUND 4K FT AGL NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64 ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETREAT FURTHER TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS WOULD LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THEY WILL KICK IN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTH...SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW VFR CIGS WILL START TO SHOW UP AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 250 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016 Considering all available 12Z guidance, it appears that the convection will not reach our western counties until after 06Z tonight. Some HRRR runs have shown some fairly intense convection moving into the area, but it weakens considerably as it across southeast Missouri. Certainly cannot rule out some isolated severe in the far west, but nothing major. Heating has been held down significantly today, and instability will be meager at best. The models continue to solidify the precipitation as it moves through our region Thursday, so QPF will increase to the east. The convection will likely be intensifying in the late morning as it exits to the east. Cannot argue with the slight risk areas in SPC`s Day 1 and Day 2 outlooks. The mid and upper-level flow will be nearly parallel to the convective line, so upscale growth of the system and more widespread wind issues are not likely. So, still would expect only isolated damaging winds, if only due to the strong winds not far off the surface that may mix down with any convective element. It may be well into the afternoon before the last of the precipitation exits the area, as the models continue to trend slower with the system. This actually has a positive impact for our area Thursday night and Friday morning, as the surface high will not settle over our region until during the day Friday. This should keep the entire area above freezing Friday morning. Cannot rule out a very isolated location dropping right down to freezing at sunrise over southeast Missouri or southern Illinois, but nothing widespread or cold enough to warrant a Freeze Watch with this forecast. Winds will stay up through tonight, so temperatures are not likely to drop much if at all tonight, until the precipitation moves in very late. Used a combination of short range guidances to show hourly trends in temperatures tonight and especially Thursday when many locations will see falling temperatures at least in the afternoon. Generally stayed on the warm side of guidance for lows/highs from Thursday night through Friday night. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016 A progressive pattern is expected through the long term, which will keep the train of weather systems going. The first system will be on Easter, followed by another potentially stronger system later next week. The long term will start off dry and mild, as surface high pressure departs to our east Saturday. A southeast low-level wind flow and plenty of sunshine will raise highs into the mid 60s for Saturday. There is a large difference in model solutions for Easter Sunday, but they all seem to agree on precip for our area. The gfs camp has been especially inconsistent. The preferred model continues to be the ecmwf, which has been more consistent. The 12z run of the ecmwf has support from a couple of the gfs ensemble members. As far as the surface low track, the 12z ecmwf is consistent with previous runs and the 00z ecmwf ensemble mean. This set of models takes the surface low northeast from Texas across southeast MO and southern IL. This preferred model solution warm sectors our region, resulting in higher temps Sunday and a continuation of the mention of thunder in the forecast. Will raise pops back into the likely category for most areas Sunday. Monday will be mainly dry and cooler in the wake of the departing cold front/low pressure system. Will hold onto a small pop for southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region, otherwise expect clearing with highs around 60. Tuesday looks dry and milder as the high moves well to the east of our region. Some moisture will begin to stream northeast across our region on Wednesday, in advance of a 500 mb trough or closed low over the Western states. Other than a slight chance of precip in se Missouri, will keep dry conditions going through Wed. Highs on Wed should be mostly in the upper 60s with increasing southerly winds. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2016 The latest guidance is a bit pessimistic on ceiling levels at the beginning of the period, but the trend is higher through the afternoon. Really played the optimistic side in holding off MVFR ceilings until the convective activity begins late tonight. Emphasized a 4 hour window when the best convective activity will impact each site. Decided to insert TS in that window. IFR conditions are limited to KPAH at this time, but that should be right with the convection, and cannot be ruled out at the other sites. South winds will continue to gust through this forecast period. They will veer to southwest and continue to gust behind the convection. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...MY AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
310 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. MADE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALSO KNOCKED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 AS IT TURNS OUT...AT LEAST TWO OF OUR OBS SITES...QUICKSAND AND THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET SITE...WERE ABLE TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S AS THEY DECOUPLED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND STAYED THAT WAY. THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINED MUCH MILDER WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS ARE STARTING OUT ELEVATED IN THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 MPH STILL GOING STRONG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE WEST AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES DEEP THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST T/TD/WIND/SKY OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 07Z SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...THE RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE RIDGES AND OVER THE MORE OPEN AREAS EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE NIGHT. IN FACT...LOZ HAD A GUST TO 22 KTS LAST HOUR WITH EKQ AND KOOMER SEEING 26 MPH. THIS WIND IS KEEPING ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS FROM DECOUPLING AND MAKING FOR FAIRLY UNIFORM...MILD...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA WITH MID AND UPPER 50S COMMON AT THIS HOUR. THE COLDEST READING IS AT QUICKSAND WITH A 42 WHILE MOST OTHER EXTREME VALLEYS ARE BARELY INTO THE 40S. SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MOVING OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE...LIKELY ALSO SLOWING THE TEMP DROP THIS NIGHT. DEWPOINTS SHOW THAT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM TO DROP TONIGHT SHOULD A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SET UP WITH OBS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ON THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL THINKING THAT ANY FROST WILL BE VERY PATCHY AND QUITE LIMITED THIS MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY GIVING WAY TO A FILLING CLOSED LOW TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM SHEARS APART ITS ENERGY WILL PASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS. DID FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX SPECIFICS IN THE NEAR TERM. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER WARM...BREEZY...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS SHOULD BE A TAD LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS PREVENTING A NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...UNLIKE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF PLACES WHERE VALUES MAY BE CLOSE SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING SUCH CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AGAIN LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED IN ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN VALLEYS. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR EAST KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY OWING TO SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND SOME LIMITED MID LEVEL DYNAMICS. SPC HAS SHIFTED THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THEIR SLIGHT RISK INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE A TWIN CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WITH AN EARLY - PRE-FRONTAL - BAND OF CONVECTION AND AGAIN CLOSER THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH SFC BASED CAPE APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND LIS TO MINUS 3...ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN CONCERN. EAST KENTUCKY IS IN NEED OF A GOOD SOAKING RAIN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST AMOUNTS PASS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. AS IT STANDS...WE HAVE ABOUT A HALF AN INCH OF QPF IN THE FORECAST...HOPEFULLY ENOUGH WILL FALL TO ALLEVIATE OUR RECENT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS...BUT THE TREND IS FOREBODING. AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE DAY AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. HAVE ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT...ALSO TOOK THE DEWPOINTS DOWN A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME ENHANCED DRY AIR MIX-DOWN. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM ZEROED THEM OUT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN RAMPED THEM UP TO BETWEEN 85 AND 95 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME... GENERALLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OUT COOL AND...ASIDE FROM A FEW STRAY RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...DRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND THE CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A FAST COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS...WILL LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 30 BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE MID 30S EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ELSE. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO FROST FORMATION IN MOST OR ALL OF OUR VALLEYS. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF...HOWEVER...AS THE AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY MODIFY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING MUCH WARMER WEATHER BACK TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WARM THINGS UP ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER ON SUNDAY...AS THE WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE OFFING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A MORE POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY START OUT AS TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE THAT WILL FORM ALONG THE WESTERN END OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND OUT INTO THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO A MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ONCE THIS HYBRID LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WE CAN EXPECTED ANOTHER PERIOD OF COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY. THE COOL DOWN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL QUITE PRONOUNCED...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY MAKING IT TO AROUND 60S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAXING OUT FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...TO THE LOW 60S ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS AROUND 4K FT AGL NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64 ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETREAT FURTHER TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS WOULD LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THEY WILL KICK IN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTH...SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW VFR CIGS WILL START TO SHOW UP AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
149 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. MADE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALSO KNOCKED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 AS IT TURNS OUT...AT LEAST TWO OF OUR OBS SITES...QUICKSAND AND THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET SITE...WERE ABLE TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S AS THEY DECOUPLED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND STAYED THAT WAY. THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINED MUCH MILDER WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS ARE STARTING OUT ELEVATED IN THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 MPH STILL GOING STRONG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE WEST AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES DEEP THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST T/TD/WIND/SKY OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 07Z SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...THE RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE RIDGES AND OVER THE MORE OPEN AREAS EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE NIGHT. IN FACT...LOZ HAD A GUST TO 22 KTS LAST HOUR WITH EKQ AND KOOMER SEEING 26 MPH. THIS WIND IS KEEPING ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS FROM DECOUPLING AND MAKING FOR FAIRLY UNIFORM...MILD...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA WITH MID AND UPPER 50S COMMON AT THIS HOUR. THE COLDEST READING IS AT QUICKSAND WITH A 42 WHILE MOST OTHER EXTREME VALLEYS ARE BARELY INTO THE 40S. SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MOVING OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE...LIKELY ALSO SLOWING THE TEMP DROP THIS NIGHT. DEWPOINTS SHOW THAT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM TO DROP TONIGHT SHOULD A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SET UP WITH OBS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ON THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL THINKING THAT ANY FROST WILL BE VERY PATCHY AND QUITE LIMITED THIS MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY GIVING WAY TO A FILLING CLOSED LOW TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM SHEARS APART ITS ENERGY WILL PASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS. DID FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX SPECIFICS IN THE NEAR TERM. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER WARM...BREEZY...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS SHOULD BE A TAD LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS PREVENTING A NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...UNLIKE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF PLACES WHERE VALUES MAY BE CLOSE SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING SUCH CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AGAIN LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED IN ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN VALLEYS. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR EAST KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY OWING TO SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND SOME LIMITED MID LEVEL DYNAMICS. SPC HAS SHIFTED THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THEIR SLIGHT RISK INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE A TWIN CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WITH AN EARLY - PRE-FRONTAL - BAND OF CONVECTION AND AGAIN CLOSER THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH SFC BASED CAPE APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND LIS TO MINUS 3...ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN CONCERN. EAST KENTUCKY IS IN NEED OF A GOOD SOAKING RAIN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST AMOUNTS PASS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. AS IT STANDS...WE HAVE ABOUT A HALF AN INCH OF QPF IN THE FORECAST...HOPEFULLY ENOUGH WILL FALL TO ALLEVIATE OUR RECENT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS...BUT THE TREND IS FOREBODING. AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE DAY AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. HAVE ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT...ALSO TOOK THE DEWPOINTS DOWN A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME ENHANCED DRY AIR MIX-DOWN. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM ZEROED THEM OUT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN RAMPED THEM UP TO BETWEEN 85 AND 95 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME... GENERALLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SHOWERS TAPPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. WE MAY KEEP SOME STRATO CU EARLY ON FRIDAY...BUT THAT LOOKS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR MOST BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT TO EASTERN KY FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FROST MENTION MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS...AS TEMPS ARE SET TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES FLAT AND ZONAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. WE THEN GET IN THE RETURN FLOW SIDE AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY MODERATE SATURDAY...WHILE A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF NW OF THE OHIO VALLEY. UP TO THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAR AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN. SO LETS TALK ABOUT NEXT WEEKEND SYSTEM AND THE MODEL VARIABILITY THAT COMES WITH IT. MENTIONED ABOVE OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BY THE TIME WE GET TO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING IN THE EAST AND WELL ESTABLISHED CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THEN AFTER THAT THE 00Z GFS HAS THIS LOW DEEPENING AND STILL CLOSED OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS SOLUTION SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST INTO NEXT WEEK. IN CONTRAST THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS OPEN AND MORE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. IT EVENTUALLY DEEPENS NEARER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS DOES NOT HAVE FULL SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN...ALSO QUITE THE SPREAD ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE GEFS TOO. SOME OF THE BIGGEST IMPLICATION WITH THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE THE FACT THAT A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION WOULD SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN QUITE A BIT...COMPARED TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION. ALSO GIVEN THAT WPC IS NOT BUYING INTO THIS SOLUTION JUST YET AND WENT CLOSER TO ECMWF MEAN. RIGHT NOW MODEL BLEND APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST BEST PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NOT GOING TO LEAN AWAY FROM THAT AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE VARIABILITY. ALSO WILL KEEP WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE QUITE A BIT WITH GFS SOLUTION KEEPING DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS AROUND 4K FT AGL NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64 ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETREAT FURTHER TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS WOULD LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THEY WILL KICK IN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTH...SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW VFR CIGS WILL START TO SHOW UP AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...AND THE RIDGES OF THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION WILL ACCELERATE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. FROM THIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING A WETTING RAIN TO THE ENTIRE REGION....BUT PERHAPS NOT AS SOAKING A RAIN AS IT LOOKED A FEW DAYS AGO. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND MORE DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN TO END THE WEEKEND. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...HAL FIRE WEATHER...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1239 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURE DOWN A BIT. MADE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALSO KNOCKED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 AS IT TURNS OUT...AT LEAST TWO OF OUR OBS SITES...QUICKSAND AND THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET SITE...WERE ABLE TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S AS THEY DECOUPLED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND STAYED THAT WAY. THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINED MUCH MILDER WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS ARE STARTING OUT ELEVATED IN THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 MPH STILL GOING STRONG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE WEST AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES DEEP THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST T/TD/WIND/SKY OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 07Z SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...THE RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE RIDGES AND OVER THE MORE OPEN AREAS EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE NIGHT. IN FACT...LOZ HAD A GUST TO 22 KTS LAST HOUR WITH EKQ AND KOOMER SEEING 26 MPH. THIS WIND IS KEEPING ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS FROM DECOUPLING AND MAKING FOR FAIRLY UNIFORM...MILD...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA WITH MID AND UPPER 50S COMMON AT THIS HOUR. THE COLDEST READING IS AT QUICKSAND WITH A 42 WHILE MOST OTHER EXTREME VALLEYS ARE BARELY INTO THE 40S. SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MOVING OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE...LIKELY ALSO SLOWING THE TEMP DROP THIS NIGHT. DEWPOINTS SHOW THAT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM TO DROP TONIGHT SHOULD A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SET UP WITH OBS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ON THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL THINKING THAT ANY FROST WILL BE VERY PATCHY AND QUITE LIMITED THIS MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY GIVING WAY TO A FILLING CLOSED LOW TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM SHEARS APART ITS ENERGY WILL PASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS. DID FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX SPECIFICS IN THE NEAR TERM. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER WARM...BREEZY...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS SHOULD BE A TAD LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS PREVENTING A NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...UNLIKE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF PLACES WHERE VALUES MAY BE CLOSE SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING SUCH CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AGAIN LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED IN ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN VALLEYS. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR EAST KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY OWING TO SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND SOME LIMITED MID LEVEL DYNAMICS. SPC HAS SHIFTED THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THEIR SLIGHT RISK INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE A TWIN CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WITH AN EARLY - PRE-FRONTAL - BAND OF CONVECTION AND AGAIN CLOSER THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH SFC BASED CAPE APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND LIS TO MINUS 3...ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN CONCERN. EAST KENTUCKY IS IN NEED OF A GOOD SOAKING RAIN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST AMOUNTS PASS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. AS IT STANDS...WE HAVE ABOUT A HALF AN INCH OF QPF IN THE FORECAST...HOPEFULLY ENOUGH WILL FALL TO ALLEVIATE OUR RECENT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS...BUT THE TREND IS FOREBODING. AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE DAY AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. HAVE ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT...ALSO TOOK THE DEWPOINTS DOWN A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME ENHANCED DRY AIR MIX-DOWN. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM ZEROED THEM OUT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN RAMPED THEM UP TO BETWEEN 85 AND 95 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME... GENERALLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SHOWERS TAPPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. WE MAY KEEP SOME STRATO CU EARLY ON FRIDAY...BUT THAT LOOKS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR MOST BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT TO EASTERN KY FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FROST MENTION MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS...AS TEMPS ARE SET TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES FLAT AND ZONAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. WE THEN GET IN THE RETURN FLOW SIDE AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY MODERATE SATURDAY...WHILE A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF NW OF THE OHIO VALLEY. UP TO THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAR AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN. SO LETS TALK ABOUT NEXT WEEKEND SYSTEM AND THE MODEL VARIABILITY THAT COMES WITH IT. MENTIONED ABOVE OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BY THE TIME WE GET TO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING IN THE EAST AND WELL ESTABLISHED CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THEN AFTER THAT THE 00Z GFS HAS THIS LOW DEEPENING AND STILL CLOSED OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS SOLUTION SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST INTO NEXT WEEK. IN CONTRAST THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS OPEN AND MORE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. IT EVENTUALLY DEEPENS NEARER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS DOES NOT HAVE FULL SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN...ALSO QUITE THE SPREAD ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE GEFS TOO. SOME OF THE BIGGEST IMPLICATION WITH THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE THE FACT THAT A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION WOULD SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN QUITE A BIT...COMPARED TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION. ALSO GIVEN THAT WPC IS NOT BUYING INTO THIS SOLUTION JUST YET AND WENT CLOSER TO ECMWF MEAN. RIGHT NOW MODEL BLEND APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST BEST PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NOT GOING TO LEAN AWAY FROM THAT AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE VARIABILITY. ALSO WILL KEEP WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE QUITE A BIT WITH GFS SOLUTION KEEPING DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WEST AND PICK UP BY MID MORNING IN THE EAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH 20 KT ONES IN THE EAST...MAINLY ON THE RIDGES. LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO SETTLE AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...AND THE RIDGES OF THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION WILL ACCELERATE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. FROM THIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING A WETTING RAIN TO THE ENTIRE REGION....BUT PERHAPS NOT AS SOAKING A RAIN AS IT LOOKED A FEW DAYS AGO. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND MORE DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN TO END THE WEEKEND. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GREIF FIRE WEATHER...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 AS IT TURNS OUT...AT LEAST TWO OF OUR OBS SITES...QUICKSAND AND THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET SITE...WERE ABLE TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S AS THEY DECOUPLED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND STAYED THAT WAY. THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINED MUCH MILDER WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS ARE STARTING OUT ELEVATED IN THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 MPH STILL GOING STRONG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE WEST AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES DEEP THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST T/TD/WIND/SKY OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 07Z SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...THE RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE RIDGES AND OVER THE MORE OPEN AREAS EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE NIGHT. IN FACT...LOZ HAD A GUST TO 22 KTS LAST HOUR WITH EKQ AND KOOMER SEEING 26 MPH. THIS WIND IS KEEPING ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS FROM DECOUPLING AND MAKING FOR FAIRLY UNIFORM...MILD...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA WITH MID AND UPPER 50S COMMON AT THIS HOUR. THE COLDEST READING IS AT QUICKSAND WITH A 42 WHILE MOST OTHER EXTREME VALLEYS ARE BARELY INTO THE 40S. SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MOVING OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE...LIKELY ALSO SLOWING THE TEMP DROP THIS NIGHT. DEWPOINTS SHOW THAT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM TO DROP TONIGHT SHOULD A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SET UP WITH OBS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ON THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL THINKING THAT ANY FROST WILL BE VERY PATCHY AND QUITE LIMITED THIS MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY GIVING WAY TO A FILLING CLOSED LOW TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM SHEARS APART ITS ENERGY WILL PASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS. DID FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX SPECIFICS IN THE NEAR TERM. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER WARM...BREEZY...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS SHOULD BE A TAD LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS PREVENTING A NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...UNLIKE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF PLACES WHERE VALUES MAY BE CLOSE SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING SUCH CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AGAIN LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED IN ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN VALLEYS. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR EAST KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY OWING TO SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND SOME LIMITED MID LEVEL DYNAMICS. SPC HAS SHIFTED THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THEIR SLIGHT RISK INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE A TWIN CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WITH AN EARLY - PRE-FRONTAL - BAND OF CONVECTION AND AGAIN CLOSER THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH SFC BASED CAPE APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND LIS TO MINUS 3...ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN CONCERN. EAST KENTUCKY IS IN NEED OF A GOOD SOAKING RAIN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST AMOUNTS PASS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. AS IT STANDS...WE HAVE ABOUT A HALF AN INCH OF QPF IN THE FORECAST...HOPEFULLY ENOUGH WILL FALL TO ALLEVIATE OUR RECENT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS...BUT THE TREND IS FOREBODING. AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE DAY AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. HAVE ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT...ALSO TOOK THE DEWPOINTS DOWN A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME ENHANCED DRY AIR MIX-DOWN. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM ZEROED THEM OUT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN RAMPED THEM UP TO BETWEEN 85 AND 95 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME... GENERALLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SHOWERS TAPPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. WE MAY KEEP SOME STRATO CU EARLY ON FRIDAY...BUT THAT LOOKS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR MOST BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT TO EASTERN KY FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FROST MENTION MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS...AS TEMPS ARE SET TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES FLAT AND ZONAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. WE THEN GET IN THE RETURN FLOW SIDE AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY MODERATE SATURDAY...WHILE A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF NW OF THE OHIO VALLEY. UP TO THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAR AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN. SO LETS TALK ABOUT NEXT WEEKEND SYSTEM AND THE MODEL VARIABILITY THAT COMES WITH IT. MENTIONED ABOVE OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BY THE TIME WE GET TO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING IN THE EAST AND WELL ESTABLISHED CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THEN AFTER THAT THE 00Z GFS HAS THIS LOW DEEPENING AND STILL CLOSED OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS SOLUTION SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST INTO NEXT WEEK. IN CONTRAST THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS OPEN AND MORE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. IT EVENTUALLY DEEPENS NEARER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS DOES NOT HAVE FULL SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN...ALSO QUITE THE SPREAD ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE GEFS TOO. SOME OF THE BIGGEST IMPLICATION WITH THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE THE FACT THAT A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION WOULD SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN QUITE A BIT...COMPARED TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION. ALSO GIVEN THAT WPC IS NOT BUYING INTO THIS SOLUTION JUST YET AND WENT CLOSER TO ECMWF MEAN. RIGHT NOW MODEL BLEND APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST BEST PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NOT GOING TO LEAN AWAY FROM THAT AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE VARIABILITY. ALSO WILL KEEP WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE QUITE A BIT WITH GFS SOLUTION KEEPING DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WEST AND PICK UP BY MID MORNING IN THE EAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH 20 KT ONES IN THE EAST...MAINLY ON THE RIDGES. LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO SETTLE AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...AND THE RIDGES OF THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION WILL ACCELERATE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. FROM THIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING A WETTING RAIN TO THE ENTIRE REGION....BUT PERHAPS NOT AS SOAKING A RAIN AS IT LOOKED A FEW DAYS AGO. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND MORE DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN TO END THE WEEKEND. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GREIF FIRE WEATHER...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
348 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 07Z SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...THE RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE RIDGES AND OVER THE MORE OPEN AREAS EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE NIGHT. IN FACT...LOZ HAD A GUST TO 22 KTS LAST HOUR WITH EKQ AND KOOMER SEEING 26 MPH. THIS WIND IS KEEPING ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS FROM DECOUPLING AND MAKING FOR FAIRLY UNIFORM...MILD...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA WITH MID AND UPPER 50S COMMON AT THIS HOUR. THE COLDEST READING IS AT QUICKSAND WITH A 42 WHILE MOST OTHER EXTREME VALLEYS ARE BARELY INTO THE 40S. SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MOVING OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE...LIKELY ALSO SLOWING THE TEMP DROP THIS NIGHT. DEWPOINTS SHOW THAT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM TO DROP TONIGHT SHOULD A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SET UP WITH OBS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ON THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL THINKING THAT ANY FROST WILL BE VERY PATCHY AND QUITE LIMITED THIS MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY GIVING WAY TO A FILLING CLOSED LOW TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM SHEARS APART ITS ENERGY WILL PASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS. DID FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX SPECIFICS IN THE NEAR TERM. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER WARM...BREEZY...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS SHOULD BE A TAD LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS PREVENTING A NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...UNLIKE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF PLACES WHERE VALUES MAY BE CLOSE SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING SUCH CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AGAIN LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED IN ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN VALLEYS. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR EAST KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY OWING TO SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND SOME LIMITED MID LEVEL DYNAMICS. SPC HAS SHIFTED THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THEIR SLIGHT RISK INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE A TWIN CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WITH AN EARLY - PRE-FRONTAL - BAND OF CONVECTION AND AGAIN CLOSER THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH SFC BASED CAPE APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND LIS TO MINUS 3...ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN CONCERN. EAST KENTUCKY IS IN NEED OF A GOOD SOAKING RAIN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST AMOUNTS PASS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. AS IT STANDS...WE HAVE ABOUT A HALF AN INCH OF QPF IN THE FORECAST...HOPEFULLY ENOUGH WILL FALL TO ALLEVIATE OUR RECENT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS...BUT THE TREND IS FOREBODING. AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE DAY AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. HAVE ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT...ALSO TOOK THE DEWPOINTS DOWN A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME ENHANCED DRY AIR MIX-DOWN. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM ZEROED THEM OUT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN RAMPED THEM UP TO BETWEEN 85 AND 95 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME... GENERALLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SHOWERS TAPPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. WE MAY KEEP SOME STRATO CU EARLY ON FRIDAY...BUT THAT LOOKS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR MOST BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT TO EASTERN KY FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FROST MENTION MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS...AS TEMPS ARE SET TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES FLAT AND ZONAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. WE THEN GET IN THE RETURN FLOW SIDE AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY MODERATE SATURDAY...WHILE A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF NW OF THE OHIO VALLEY. UP TO THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAR AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN. SO LETS TALK ABOUT NEXT WEEKEND SYSTEM AND THE MODEL VARIABILITY THAT COMES WITH IT. MENTIONED ABOVE OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BY THE TIME WE GET TO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING IN THE EAST AND WELL ESTABLISHED CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THEN AFTER THAT THE 00Z GFS HAS THIS LOW DEEPENING AND STILL CLOSED OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS SOLUTION SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST INTO NEXT WEEK. IN CONTRAST THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS OPEN AND MORE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. IT EVENTUALLY DEEPENS NEARER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS DOES NOT HAVE FULL SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN...ALSO QUITE THE SPREAD ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE GEFS TOO. SOME OF THE BIGGEST IMPLICATION WITH THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE THE FACT THAT A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION WOULD SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN QUITE A BIT...COMPARED TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION. ALSO GIVEN THAT WPC IS NOT BUYING INTO THIS SOLUTION JUST YET AND WENT CLOSER TO ECMWF MEAN. RIGHT NOW MODEL BLEND APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST BEST PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NOT GOING TO LEAN AWAY FROM THAT AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE VARIABILITY. ALSO WILL KEEP WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE QUITE A BIT WITH GFS SOLUTION KEEPING DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AND BELOW 10 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND CONTINUE LIGHTER THROUGH EARLY-MID WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A FACTOR AT AROUND FL020 AS A LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AFFECTS THE AREA INTO DAWN. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY 09-11Z EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN...BUT LIKELY NOT ANYWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON TUESDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
829 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS MAINE FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 830 PM UPDATE... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF DETROIT MI WITH UPR LVL WV ROTATING THRU THE WRN GREAT LKS. THIS HAS BROUGHT INVERTED SFC TROF THRU NY STATE AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BRDR OF MAINE. SFC WINDS ALONG THE ST. JOHN VLY VEERED FM NRLY DIRECTION TO ERLY IN THE PAST HR AS TROF HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO CANADA. SFC HIPRES HAS BUILT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH COLD AIR DAMMING BCMG REINFORCED ON ERLY FLOW WITH SFC TEMPS OVR WASHINGTON CNTY HVG DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE PAST HR. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO HV A HARD TIME DEALING WITH COLD-AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. 18Z GFS SEEMS TO HV THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT SFC TEMPS WITH LATEST RAP FAIRLY CLOSE AS WELL. CONTINUE TO MONKEY WITH HRLY T/TD VALUES AS WARMEST TEMPS IN CWA ARE LOCATED ACRS THE NORTH WITH LWR TEMPS IN DOWNEAST ZONES. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO DELAY PCPN ONSET BY AN HR OR TWO AS AIRMASS IS TAKING ITS SWEET TIME SATURATING DOWN. ONCE IT DOES, EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN ACRS NRN ZONES IN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. WL TAKE LONGER TO BEGIN ACRS THE SOUTH AS THEY ARE RMVD FM CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROF. MOST LKLY EXPECT THAT THEY WL SEE DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE SET UP FOR A TIME TONIGHT BFR GETTING MORE STRATIFORM PCPN TO DVLP. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT 00Z SNDG FM KCAR SHOWS LOWEST 150MB DRY AND WAITING TO SATURATE FM THE TOP WHEREAS 00Z SOUNDING FM KGYX SHOWS THE OPPOSITE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN LOWEST LYRS WHILE ABV 850MB IT RMNS DRY. THUS, HV ADDED IN DRIZZLE AND/OR FZDZ TO GRIDS FOR DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT BFR MOISTURE CAN WORK IN ALOFT. CAN ALREADY SEE FZDZ BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM ON GYX AND BOX RADAR. WL CONTINUE HEADLINES AS IS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ICE DOWNEAST UNDER COLD AIR DAMMING. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... THIS UPCOMING EVENT LOOKS TO BE HIGH IMPACT WITH THE WHOLE SET OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND CANADIAN GEM SHOWING A COLD SOLUTION W/A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT SETTING UP. SFC ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRES SLIDING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK W/PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND THEN OVERSPREADING NE INTO THE REST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF THE EVENT BY A FEW HRS AS INITIAL PRECIP WILL BE VIRGA DUE TO DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE COLUMN IN FORECAST TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT W/OVERRUNNING IN PLACE DUE TO E WIND IN THE BLYR W/SSW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP WILL START OUT INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND THEN GRADUALLY GO OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR THE DOWNEAST AND COAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN TO JUST PLAIN RAIN BY DRIVE TIME FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING. FURTHER N AND W, THE CHANGEOVER WILL TAKE LONGER AS COLD AIR WEDGED IN WILL TAKE LONGER TO SCOUR OUT. AS A MATTER OF FACT, STRONG WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY FOR SNOW AND HEAVY SLEET. THE DECISION WAS TO GO W/5-9 INCHES AND AROUND AN INCH OF SLEET. ACROSS THE HOULTON-MILLINOCKET REGION INTO THE MOUNT KATAHDIN REGION WILL SEE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF ICE ALONG W/THE SNOW AND SLEET. FURTHER S TOWARD BANGOR-CALAIS TO THE COAST...MIXED PRECIP WILL GO TO RAIN AS TEMPS RAPIDLY WARM INTO THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE 40S BY THE AFTERNOON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. LOW PRES LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN MAINE AND THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE MAINE COAST ON FRIDAY. THE COASTAL LOW WILL THEN LIFT NE DURING THE DAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO COLDER AIR HANGING ON LONGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND THE CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE REGION MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT, TEMPS COULD STRUGGLE TO BUST 32F IN THESE AREAS WHICH WOULD KEEP SLEET/FREEZING RAIN GOING ON LONGER. TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE ICING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY THE SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS AS WHETHER TO UPGRADE THE HEADLINES ACROSS THE HOULTON AND MOUNT KATAHDIN REGION IF THIS PANS OUT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SYSTEM MOVES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND MID 40S TOWARD THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, BUT PROBABLY NO PRECIPITATION OTHER THAN PERHAPS PATCHY DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY WITH THE RETURN ONSHORE FLOW, AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S DOWNEAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND BRINGS LIKELY POPS TO THE REGION WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TURNING TO ALL RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE OVERALL TREND IS A FARTHER EAST SOLUTION...THEREFORE NOT PLAYING THIS STORM UP AT ALL. THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE BY MID WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH AND THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODIFY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND BRINGS LIKELY POPS TO THE REGION WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TURNING TO ALL RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE OVERALL TREND IS A FARTHER EAST SOLUTION...THEREFORE NOT PLAYING THIS STORM UP AT ALL. THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE BY MID WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH AND THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODIFY. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR TONIGHT THEN BCMG IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FZRA/SLEET WILL LEAD TO ICING THREATS AS WELL AS LLWS FOR KBHB. SHORT TERM: ANY LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD END FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE PREDOMINANT CEILINGS WILL BE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL COME BACK UP TO 15 TO 20 KT W/GUSTS TO 30 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS W/A SWELL COMPONENT. SHORT TERM: AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT LEVEL OFFSHORE WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE AROUND 7 FEET FRIDAY EVENING, SUBSIDING TO AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ001-002. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ003>006- 010-011-031-032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ015>017. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/FOISY MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD PERSISTED INTO MID-AFTERNOON...INHIBITING A LOT OF MIXING AND KEEPING TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. NCAR ENSEMBLE 3KM POSTAGE STAMPS HAVE THE WAVE CLOUD DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT BY MID-EVENING. SO ANTICIPATE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS INVERSION SETS UP OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S...WITH TEMPS WEST OF I-95 IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT WITH LESS HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS. THE REDUCED AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE MIXING WITH GUSTIER SW WINDS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAS COLD FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT CLEARING THE CWA ON FRIDAY MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS FROM LATE EVENING THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH H5 PVA BEHIND IT...MAY TOUCH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ESP AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF CWA. USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SAT AND SUN WITH HIGH PRESS TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. A LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTHWEST SOMETIME SUN NIGHT INTO MON... PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SOMETIME ON MON... WITH PRECIP PSBLY STARTING SUN NIGHT. TIMING WITH THE FROPA IS STILL UNCERTAIN BETWEEN GUIDANCE... AS WELL AS PRECIP DURATION. HIGH PRESS BUILDS BEHIND COLD FRONT MON OR MON NIGHT BRINGING BACK DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WED. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL... HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOW TEMPS WILL IN THE 40S AND 50S... AND IN THE 30S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS AND VSBYS...CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT KDCA AND KBWI. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 22KT-28KT RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SAT AND SUN WITH HIGH PRESS TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. && .MARINE... LATEST RAP FORECAST DOES HAVE WINDS MIXING DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AOA SCA CRITERIA...SO WILL KEEP IT INTACT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE COLDER WATERS...EXPECTING THE SCA WINDS TO BE LIMITED TO NEARSHORE. MODELS STILL SHOW THE BIG WATER OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE ADJACENT TO SOUTHERN MARYLAND IN SCA TONIGHT...AND THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SOLID SCA AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN WITH HIGH PRESS TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. && .FIRE WEATHER... THURSDAY WILL BE WINDIER AND WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH THE 10-HOUR FUELS BEING MORE COMBUSTIBLE WITH TODAY`S DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FORECAST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CURRENTLY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE 25-30% THRESHOLDS FOR ENHANCED WILDFIRE CONCERNS. WE DID GET A REPORT OF A 10-12 ACRE WILDFIRE TODAY IN CALVERT COUNTY...AND SIMILAR ISOLATED WILDFIRES MAY BE AROUND THE REGION THURSDAY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ533-534- 537-541>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LEE NEAR TERM...LEE SHORT TERM...LEE LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...LEE/IMR MARINE...LEE/IMR FIRE WEATHER...LEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
848 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND THEN TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 WE HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES A LITTLE WITH THE 8 PM EXPIRATION TIME COMING UP HERE SOON AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW COMING IN THIS EVENING. WE HAVE DROPPED THE SE CORNER OF THE WARNING WITH LITTLE ONGOING IMPACTS THERE AND LITTLE SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING...WE HAVE EXTENDED IT UNTIL 1 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TOP OF THE ACCUMULATED ICE UP THERE. DEFORMATION SNOW ACROSS WISCONSIN IS NOW MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT IT WILL CREATE SOME ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WITH ADDITIONAL WEIGHT ON TOP OF STRESSED TREE LIMBS...AND CREATE MORE SLICK ROADS WITH TEMPS FALLING. THIS SHOULD ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NE BY 1 AM. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 WE WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUE AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ICING...BUT WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND ICE COVERED TREES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THERE. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR CONSISTENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IN BRINGING A BAND OF DEFORMATION AXIS SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ON THE ROADS AFTER DARK AS TEMPERATURES DROP BLO FREEZING. ONCE THAT GOES BY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BY 12Z FRIDAY. FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM LOW IS APPROACHING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN OR MIX ACROSS THE NORTH. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 WE ARE MONITORING TWO SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. ONE IS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON SUN-MON. THE OTHER IS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR LATE WED-THU. THE TREND OVER THE PAST DAY IS FOR DIMINISHING PCPN CHCS FOR THE SYSTEM FOR SUN-MON. THIS TREND IS THE RESULT OF MORE SEPARATION OF THE SYSTEMS FROM SAT THROUGH SUN. WE WILL SEE THE FRONT FROM THE SAT SYSTEM BE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE TRIES TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON SUN-MON. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP PCPN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE HAVE KEPT RAIN CHCS IN THE FCST INTO MON...BUT HAVE LOWERED THEM A BIT. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT AS THERE IS POTENTIAL OF ENOUGH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THE PERIOD FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS. WE WILL SEE A NICE AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN LOWS TO OUR EAST AND WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BEGINNING ON WED AND BECOME MORE LIKELY BY THU. THE STRONG UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL START TO EJECT SHORT WAVES TO THE NE TOWARD THE STATE. THE INITIAL WAVE EJECTING INTO THE AREA ON WED WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY THU AS BETTER MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED FURTHER NORTH AHEAD OF SUBSEQUENT WAVES. WE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY MILD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AND APPROACHING 60 BEING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 847 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 BAND OF RAIN/SNOW WILL WORK EAST THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LOWER CEILINGS REMAIN NEAR AND IN THE WAKE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT AN IMPROVING TREND TONIGHT FROM LIFR AND IFR THIS EVENING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING THEREAFTER. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHTER WINDS MOVES IN. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF LOWER MICHIGAN. 24 HOUR TOTALS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED BY 8 AM FRIDAY. RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE IN THE KALAMAZOO... GRAND... AND MUSKEGON RIVER BASINS. NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN LOWLAND AREAS ADJACENT TO RIVER BANKS. MORE IMPACTFUL MINOR FLOODING ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040- 043>045. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...NJJ SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO SHORT TERM...OSTUNO LONG TERM...NJJ AVIATION...DUKE HYDROLOGY...EBW MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
650 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 LATEST UPDATE... UPDATE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND THEN TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 WE HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES A LITTLE WITH THE 8 PM EXPIRATION TIME COMING UP HERE SOON AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW COMING IN THIS EVENING. WE HAVE DROPPED THE SE CORNER OF THE WARNING WITH LITTLE ONGOING IMPACTS THERE AND LITTLE SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING...WE HAVE EXTENDED IT UNTIL 1 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TOP OF THE ACCUMULATED ICE UP THERE. DEFORMATION SNOW ACROSS WISCONSIN IS NOW MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT IT WILL CREATE SOME ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WITH ADDITIONAL WEIGHT ON TOP OF STRESSED TREE LIMBS...AND CREATE MORE SLICK ROADS WITH TEMPS FALLING. THIS SHOULD ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NE BY 1 AM. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 WE WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUE AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ICING...BUT WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND ICE COVERED TREES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THERE. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR CONSISTENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IN BRINGING A BAND OF DEFORMATION AXIS SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ON THE ROADS AFTER DARK AS TEMPERATURES DROP BLO FREEZING. ONCE THAT GOES BY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BY 12Z FRIDAY. FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM LOW IS APPROACHING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN OR MIX ACROSS THE NORTH. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 WE ARE MONITORING TWO SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. ONE IS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON SUN-MON. THE OTHER IS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR LATE WED-THU. THE TREND OVER THE PAST DAY IS FOR DIMINISHING PCPN CHCS FOR THE SYSTEM FOR SUN-MON. THIS TREND IS THE RESULT OF MORE SEPARATION OF THE SYSTEMS FROM SAT THROUGH SUN. WE WILL SEE THE FRONT FROM THE SAT SYSTEM BE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE TRIES TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON SUN-MON. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP PCPN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE HAVE KEPT RAIN CHCS IN THE FCST INTO MON...BUT HAVE LOWERED THEM A BIT. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT AS THERE IS POTENTIAL OF ENOUGH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THE PERIOD FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS. WE WILL SEE A NICE AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN LOWS TO OUR EAST AND WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BEGINNING ON WED AND BECOME MORE LIKELY BY THU. THE STRONG UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL START TO EJECT SHORT WAVES TO THE NE TOWARD THE STATE. THE INITIAL WAVE EJECTING INTO THE AREA ON WED WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY THU AS BETTER MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED FURTHER NORTH AHEAD OF SUBSEQUENT WAVES. WE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY MILD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AND APPROACHING 60 BEING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS SHROUDED BY IFR-LIFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL RAIN AT THE TERMINALS. WE EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO HOLD UNTIL ABOUT 21-22Z WHEN A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE PCPN WILL MOVE IN. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE IFR CATEGORY...EXCEPT FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS WHICH COULD SNEAK UP TO MVFR IN THE WARMER PART OF THE SYSTEM. SOME STORMS CURRENTLY IN ERN ILLINOIS WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE I-94 TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HRS. AFTER THE LULL...WE WILL SEE THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH MAINLY KGRR AND KMKG IN THE FORM OF SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE IT WOULD MOVE OUT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH CIGS COMING UP TO VFR TOWARD 14Z OR SO ON FRI. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHTER WINDS MOVES IN. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF LOWER MICHIGAN. 24 HOUR TOTALS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED BY 8 AM FRIDAY. RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE IN THE KALAMAZOO... GRAND... AND MUSKEGON RIVER BASINS. NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN LOWLAND AREAS ADJACENT TO RIVER BANKS. MORE IMPACTFUL MINOR FLOODING ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040- 043>045. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...NJJ SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO SHORT TERM...OSTUNO LONG TERM...NJJ AVIATION...NJJ HYDROLOGY...EBW MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
534 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 528 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OVER WRN KS IN THE SRN STREAM. TO THE N IN THE NRN STREAM...BROAD TROFFING COVERS MUCH OF CANADA. IN THE CONFLUENCE BTWN THIS NRN TROFFING AND RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THE KS LOW...UPPER JET RUNNING FROM JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NRN NEW ENGLAND IS STRENGTHENING. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET IS AIDING PCPN EXPANSION WELL TO THE N OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW IN NCNTRL KS TO LAKE ERIE. CLOSER TO HOME...A FEW STRATOCU DEVELOPED IN NE WIND UPSLOPE AREAS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND THICKENING TODAY AFTER MORNING SUNSHINE. FCST TONIGHT/THU WILL REVOLVE AROUND EVOLUTION OF WINTER STORM CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER KS GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THU. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM NE KS TO SRN LWR MI THU AFTN. INITIAL BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY LIFTING TOWARD UPPER MI IS BEING DRIVEN LARGELY BY AFOREMENTIONED RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AND RESULTING STRENGTHENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ALTHOUGH SNOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING N THRU WI...IT WILL ENCOUNTER VERY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT S AND W FROM HIGH PRES OVER ONTARIO. SFC DWPTS HAVE BEEN DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN AND ARE IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN ONTARIO. WITH ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TONIGHT... THE APPROACHING SNOW IN WI WILL INCREASINGLY STRUGGLE TO MOVE N INTO UPPER MI AS ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ERODES THE NRN PORTION OF THE PCPN SHIELD. ALL AVBL HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HOURLY RAP RUNS TODAY AND 18Z NAM...SHOW PCPN HAVING TROUBLE LIFTING MUCH FARTHER THAN FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT FROM ROUGHLY JUST N OF IRON MOUNTAIN TO JUST N OF MANSTIQUE BY 12Z THU. DURING THU MORNING...DEFORMATION SNOW SHIELD...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING/TSSN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A WEAKENING STATE. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW SHOULD EXPAND INTO PORTIONS OF NCTNRL AND NE UPPER MI. SNOW WILL THEN DIMINISH/END STEADILY FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTN. FOR THIS EVENT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW TO FALL FROM IRONWOOD TO L`ANSE INTO THE KEWEENAW. IT`S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANY SNOW WILL REACH MARQUETTE. TO THE S AND E...EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL FROM N TO S WITH WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND 1 INCH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO ABOUT A FOOT IN THE CITY OF MENOMINEE. THE NRN EDGE OF THE SNOW WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT CHALLENGE AS DRY AIR CONTNUALLY EATS AWAY AT SNOW LIFTING INTO THE AREA UNDER WEAKENING FORCING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE NRN EXTENT OF SNOWFALL REFLECTED IN THIS FCST DOES NOT OCCUR. HAVE ADDED DICKINSON/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES TO ADVY...THOUGH IT WILL ONLY BE THE SRN PARTS OF THOSE COUNTIES THAT WILL REACH THE LOW SLR ADVY CRITERIA OF AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. FAR SRN PARTS OF DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES MAY SEE STORM TOTAL SNOW UP AROUND 6 INCHES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 516 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE NRN STREAM DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES...WILL GIVE WAY TO MID LEVEL RIDGING AS A SRN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE STRONG SHRTWAVE TROUGH LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NE THROUGH LOWER MI DURING THE EVENING STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR DIV MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA WILL END THE LINGERING SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FAVORING TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY INLAND WEST HALF. FRIDAY...SRLY FLOW AND WAA WILL DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPER 30S N AND E TO HE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE SW. FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...MODELS SHOW PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH ONLY MODEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INFLOW...GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.10 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. FCST LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN MAY FALL AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY. SUN-MON...WITH SFC RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT LITTLE PCPN DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK NRN STREAM SHRTWVS TO BRUSH THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. TUE-WED...MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH A STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PCPN...MAINLY AS RAIN...MAY SPREAD TOWARD THE AREA BY WED AS MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO INCREASES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 BEING WELL N OF A WINTER STORM THAT WILL BE TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...KIWD/KCMX WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE FCST PERIOD UNDER AN E TO NE FEED OF DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS. THE NRN FRINGE OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MAY BRUSH KSAW THU MORNING. IF SO...VFR CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO HIGH END MVFR AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 528 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 E TO NE WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THU AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES DRIFTING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC AND LOW PRES TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO FAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE THU EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 15KT OR LESS FROM W TO E LATE THU AFTN THRU FRI MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS LATER FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES TROF. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE FOR A TIME AHEAD OF THE TROF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LIKEWISE... THERE MAY BE 15-25KT NW WINDS FOR A TIME IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF PASSAGE LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN LATER SUN AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ007-014-085. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ013. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ012. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ011. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING A WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER. UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN. A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL BE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE HRRR SUPPORTS THE GOING FORECAST FOR EVOLUTION OF P TYPE TONIGHT. WE EXPECT THE NORTHERN TIER TO SEE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WITH WITH A BAND OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN CUTTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHARPLY TO THE SOUTH. THE ICING THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE AREA FROM ALMA TO MT PLEASANT AND WEST TO BIG RAPIDS WHERE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICE ACCUM IS POSSIBLE. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FREEZING RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-96 TONIGHT. WE ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY THAT IS SFC BASED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE LOW MOVES EAST LATE THURSDAY WITH A NORTH FLOW OF COLDER AIR CHANGING PRECIP OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE CROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON HOW THE DEFORMATION ZONE PIVOTS THROUGH. WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS IF ICE ACCUMULATIONS PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 HE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE MORE OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS. DRIER WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON FRI WILL REMAIN INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SAT BEFORE PCPN CHCS WILL INCREASE LATER. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LONGER WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIFT JUST NW OF THE AREA LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT FAR SE WITH UPPER WAVE STAYING NW. WE WILL ALSO HAVE ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE SRN JET LIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS AND GO JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE. RAIN CHCS WILL BE MUCH BETTER ON SUN WITH THE SRN STREAM WAVE AS IT WILL DRAW GULF MOISTURE NWD. PCPN LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH SUN AS THE COLDER AIR FROM THE NW GETS HELD UP. PCPN COULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW AT THE END OF THE EVENT AS SOME COLDER AIR DOES FINALLY TRY TO MAKE IT IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WE SHOULD THEN SEE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FROM LATER MON THROUGH TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BE RATHER AMPLIFIED WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WE WILL END UP WITH THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDING IN OVER OUR PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE WRN TROUGH/LOW WILL START TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND WED. THIS COULD END UP GETTING PUSHED BACK OVER TIME AS IS THE CASE MANY TIMES IN THIS TYPE OF A PATTERN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 PLENTY OF IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND WITH A LOT OF IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE ONLY REAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST IS P-TYPE FOR THE NRN TERMINALS. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE NRN TERMINALS SINCE AROUND 14-16Z...WITH A WINTRY MIX NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE LOWERING THERE AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THAT WAY. A POCKET OF AIR BELOW FREEZING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20-22Z AND LASTING UNTIL AROUND 02-03Z. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME PL TO MAINLY KGRR AND KMKG. SOME FZRA IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF SFC TEMPS DROP TO...OR BELOW FREEZING. WE EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS TIME. PCPN SHOULD THEN REMAIN RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD AFTER 02-03Z AT THE TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO START AFFECTING THE NRN TERMINALS AROUND 20-22Z...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS TO SETTLE IN BEFORE 04Z AT MOST OF...IF NOT ALL OF THE SITES. THIS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THEN THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AND BEYOND. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.75-1.50 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RIVER RISES WILL OCCUR... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED. MINOR FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE... MAINLY IN THE FORM OF NUISANCE FLOODING IN LOWLAND AREAS NEAR RIVER BANKS. AS OF THIS WRITING... RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE IN EFFECT FOR THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS... GRAND RIVER AT IONIA... LOOKING GLASS RIVER AT EAGLE... AND SYCAMORE CREEK AT HOLT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROLONG ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS AND COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ050-056>059. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ037>040- 043>046-051-052. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO SHORT TERM...OSTUNO LONG TERM...NJJ AVIATION...NJJ HYDROLOGY...EBW MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
405 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS. PLAINS RIDGING IS OUT AHEAD OF A TROF MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. ENERGY OVER SRN NV IN THE BASE OF THAT TROF WILL SPIN UP A WINTER STORM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED NIGHT NIGHT/THU. CLOSER TO HOME...STREAK OF -SN IN WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME AND AIDED BY SHARPER FGEN HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FCST AREA AFTER LEAVING A DUSTING TO AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF DIMINISHING LIGHT PCPN EXITING NE MN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE N AND E THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. 12Z CYPL SOUNDING AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SUPPORTS THIS DRYING TREND AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE NRN ONTARIO WITH ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NE LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL THUS CARRY A MENTION OF -SN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN END PCPN WNW TO ESE AS FORCING EXITS AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES. EVEN IF LOW CLOUDS DO SCATTER OUT OR CLEAR OUT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER 850MB TEMPS -9/-10C MAY SUPPORT STRATOCU EXPANSION LATE TONIGHT AND/OR WED MORNING. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLEARING...TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS AT SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS. ON WED...SHORTWAVE OVER SRN NV WILL EMERGE OUT OVER THE WRN PLAINS AS A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER KS. DOWNSTREAM...TIGHTENING CONFLUENCE ZONE BTWN SRN STREAM RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WRN PLAINS TROF AND CONTINUED NRN STREAM TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET FROM NRN ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR EASTWARD. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET WILL HELP PCPN EXPAND TO THE N OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW TO LAKE ERIE. GIVEN THE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER NRN ONTARIO ON WED AND THE MAIN FGEN ZONE S OF THE AREA...WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLOWER NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF PCPN INTO FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI WED AFTN. FCST WILL SHOW SCHC POPS SPREADING INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY DURING THE AFTN...BUT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL 22-23Z OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTY. CHC POPS WILL EXTEND AS FAR N AS KIMT/KESC AT 23Z. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING STRATOCU THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE W AND NCNTRL...EXPECT A GRADUAL THICKENING OF HIGH CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 30S...A STEADY NE WIND WILL ADD A CHILL...ESPECIALLY IN MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING DOWN THE BAY WILL ENHANCE WINDS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 ONGOING SN STORM OVER MAINLY SE UPR MI WL DIMINISH ON THU AS POLAR BRANCH SHRTWV/SFC LO SHIFT ENEWD THRU THE LOWER GREAT LKS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ARCITC BRANCH FLOW. THERE WL THEN BE A PERIOD OF DRY WX THU NGT/FRI AS TRAILING HI PRES RDG SHIFTS ACRS THE UPPER LKS. NEXT CHC OF SN MIXED WITH RA WL COME ON FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT AS SHRTWV/LO PRES TROF CROSS THE UPR LKS...BUT THIS PCPN EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SGNFT. THEN GENERALLY QUITE WX WL BE THE RULE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPS WL BE AOB NORMAL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. THU...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF POLAR BRANCH SHRTWV MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER LKS...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LO PASSING THRU SRN LOWER MI ON THU AFTN. SINCE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LACK OF PHASING BTWN THE POLAR BRANCH FLOW OVER THE CONUS AND ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IN CANADA...THE SRN TREND IN FCST LO TRACK SEEMS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SPARE MOST OF THE CWA FM HEAVY PCPN/SN...EXPECT THE SE ZNS. WENT WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 4 INCHES OF SN OVER THE SE ON THU...WITH MOST FALLING THRU 18Z. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS DEEPER MSTR/MORE PCPN FARTHER TO THE N...BUT WL TREND TOWARD THE SOMEWHAT DRIER FCSTS AWAY FM THE SE GIVEN THE DRY LLVLS OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WOULD FAVOR A SHARPER NRN EDGE TO THE PCPN SHIELD DESPITE SOME UPR DVGC THAT IS FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA ON THU MRNG IN THE EXIT REGION OF UPR JET CORE ON THE ERN FLANK OF SHRTWV. EXIT OF STRONGER FORCING IN THE AFTN WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING POPS...SO THE END TIME OF HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR MENOMINEE/DELTA COUNTIES WL BE 18Z. THU NGT...AS SHRTWV/SFC LO EXIT TO THE E AND GIVE WAY TO DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND DRYING/SFC HI PRES RDG...ANY LINGERING SN OVER MAINLY THE E WL DIMINISH AND GIVE WAY TO CLRG SKIES W-E. WITH LGT WINDS AND PWAT UNDER 0.25 INCH...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. LINGERING SHALLOW CYC NNE FLOW WL KEEP SOME LO CLDS LINGERING LONGER OVER THE E...BUT H85 TEMPS FALLING NO LOWER THAN ABOUT -8C WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LES. FRI...ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING ESEWD THRU WRN CANADA/NRN ROCKIES IS FCST TO DIG INTO THE NRN PLAINS...CAUSING A LO PRES TROF TO DVLP FM NW ONTARIO INTO THE NRN PLAINS. UPR MI WL E DOMINATED BY THE LLVL SW FLOW BTWN THIS TROF AND THE SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS SHIFTING TO THE E. RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN THE QUICKEST TO BRING SOME PCPN AHEAD OF THIS TROF INTO THE WRN CWA...BUT GIVEN DRYNESS OF ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WL TEND TO FOLLOW THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AND MAINTAIN A DRIER FCST. THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH NO PCPN OVER THE CWA THRU 00Z SAT...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN FREE SCENARIO IS INCRSG. FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT...AS SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES TROF DRIFT TOWARD THE UPR LKS...EXPECT PCPN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA W-E FRI NGT INTO SAT. SINCE THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LO IS FCST TO PASS TO THE NW OF UPR MI WITH SW LLVL FLOW OVER THE CWA...EXPECT SOME OF THIS PCPN WL BE MIXED WITH SOME RA AT LEAST OVER THE SE CWA ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON SAT...WHEN H85-100 THKNS WL BE IN EXCESS OF 1305M IN THIS AREA. AS THE SHRTWV/LO PRES TROF CROSS THE CWA ON SAT NGT...PCPN WL DIMINISH W-E. EXTENDED...ON EASTER SUN ANOTHER POLAR BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO LIFT ENEWD FM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LKS. MOST OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC FORCING AND SFC LO PRES STAYING FAR ENUF TO THE SE AND SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS MOVING INTO THE AREA TO BRING A DRY DAY TO UPR MI. THERE ARE THEN SIGNS ANOTHER SHRTWV MAY DIG NEAR THE UPR LKS ON MON...BUT ABSENCE OF SGNFT MSTR INFLOW AND TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES WARRANT NO MORE THAN LO CHC POPS. TRAILING HI PRES SHOULD BRING DRY WX ON TUE. TEMPS AOB NORMAL ON SUN AND MON SHOULD WARM ON TUE AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO AT LEAST BE NEAR 0C WITH SUNSHINE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF ALL THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KSAW LATE WED EVENING AS INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NW FRINGE OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD DEVELOP SOME MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES IN NE FLOW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016EXPECT INCREASING NE WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS INTO THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN HI PRES DRIFTING ACROSS ONTARIO AND A LO PRES SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU THE LOWER LAKES AND INTO SE ONTARIO ON THU NIGHT. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL DIMINISH STEADILY ON THU NIGHT AS A HI PRES RIDGE FOLLOWS INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL THEN BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE SSW ON FRI/FRI NIGHT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING LO PRES TROUGH. BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN 20 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO THE N-NW ON SAT AND SUN FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVER 20 KTS DURING THIS TIME. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ013. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ012. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
131 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS. PLAINS RIDGING IS OUT AHEAD OF A TROF MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. ENERGY OVER SRN NV IN THE BASE OF THAT TROF WILL SPIN UP A WINTER STORM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED NIGHT NIGHT/THU. CLOSER TO HOME...STREAK OF -SN IN WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME AND AIDED BY SHARPER FGEN HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FCST AREA AFTER LEAVING A DUSTING TO AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF DIMINISHING LIGHT PCPN EXITING NE MN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE N AND E THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. 12Z CYPL SOUNDING AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SUPPORTS THIS DRYING TREND AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE NRN ONTARIO WITH ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NE LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL THUS CARRY A MENTION OF -SN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN END PCPN WNW TO ESE AS FORCING EXITS AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES. EVEN IF LOW CLOUDS DO SCATTER OUT OR CLEAR OUT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER 850MB TEMPS -9/-10C MAY SUPPORT STRATOCU EXPANSION LATE TONIGHT AND/OR WED MORNING. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLEARING...TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS AT SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS. ON WED...SHORTWAVE OVER SRN NV WILL EMERGE OUT OVER THE WRN PLAINS AS A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER KS. DOWNSTREAM...TIGHTENING CONFLUENCE ZONE BTWN SRN STREAM RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WRN PLAINS TROF AND CONTINUED NRN STREAM TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET FROM NRN ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR EASTWARD. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET WILL HELP PCPN EXPAND TO THE N OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW TO LAKE ERIE. GIVEN THE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER NRN ONTARIO ON WED AND THE MAIN FGEN ZONE S OF THE AREA...WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLOWER NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF PCPN INTO FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI WED AFTN. FCST WILL SHOW SCHC POPS SPREADING INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY DURING THE AFTN...BUT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL 22-23Z OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTY. CHC POPS WILL EXTEND AS FAR N AS KIMT/KESC AT 23Z. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING STRATOCU THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE W AND NCNTRL...EXPECT A GRADUAL THICKENING OF HIGH CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 30S...A STEADY NE WIND WILL ADD A CHILL...ESPECIALLY IN MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING DOWN THE BAY WILL ENHANCE WINDS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 ...FOCUS IS ON GREAT LAKES STORM LATE WED AFTN INTO THU MORNING... UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS TO ROCKIES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WED MORNING THEN LIFTS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THU AND OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRI. TROUGH ALOFT MAINTAINS POSITIVE OR NEUTRAL TILT AS STRONGEST JET ENERGY REMAINS AHEAD OF TROUGH. SFC LOW 987MB-991MB DEEPENS OVER KS THROUGH MIDDAY WED THEN MOVES TO NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO BY WED EVENING. FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE VCNTY OF SOUTHERN IOWA TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI BY WED EVENING. SHARP H85 FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT...VCNTY OF SOUTHERN MN TO CNTRL WI AND CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT BAND OF SNOW TO STREAK AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE H85 FRONT AND WITHIN REGION OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENEIS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER LATE WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT...FARTHER NORTH H85 TROUGH MAY PUSH THE INITIAL FGEN SNOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN UPR MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...NE WINDS TO NORTH OF THE FGEN CIRCULATION WILL BE ADVECTING DRY AIR OVER UPR MICHIGAN FM LARGE HIGH OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...ULTIMATELY HELPING TO SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF SYSTEM SNOW. UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME INIDIATION THAT WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY BRING HEAVIER SNOW FARTHER NORTH. DEFORMATION AND PVA NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SNOW FM NORTHEAST WI INTO AT LEAST SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS -8C OR LOWER INDICATE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR WHERE THE LARGE SCALE SNOW IS FALLING. THE MAIN QUESTION THAT REMAINS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL SECONDARY SURGE OF SNOW TRACK ON WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN IS STILL SHOWN TO BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF HEAVIER SYNOPTIC SNOW WITH QPF AMOUNTS OVER 0.60 INCHES AT LEAST FOR MNM...BUT LATEST TRENDS FOR NAM/GFS AND GEM SHOW LESS QPF OVER NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THEY TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND POSITION OF SFC LOW. NOW IF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW IS FARTHER NORTH THAN MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES ATTM...THEN GOING WATCHES WOULD HAVE TO BE EXPANDED NORTH FOR HEAVIER SYNOPTIC SNOW AND ALSO WOULD HAVE HEAVIER SNOW FOR HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR NORTH CENTRAL WITH FAVORABLE NE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. VOLITILITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS UP IN SREF MEMBERS WHICH SHOW LEAST SPREAD AT KMNM /MIN OF 4 INCHES AND MAX OF 12 INCHES/ WHILE JUST NORTH OF THERE AT KIMT/KESC AND KMQT...SPREAD RANGES FM LESS THAN 2 INCHES TO OVER 10 INCHES. WILL KEEP MENOMINEE IN WINTER STORM WATCH AS MAJORITY OF HEAVIER SNOW WOULD NOT MOVE IN UNTIL WED NIGHT. NE WINDS OFF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -8C WOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. EVEN WITH THE WET SNOW...EXPOSURE TO NE WINDS OFF OF THE BAY...OVER 35 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER...WILL ALSO RESULT IN BLSN/LOW VSBY ISSUES IF WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY SNOW AFFECTS THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF NORTHERN EDGE OF SYSTEM SNOW...DID NOT ADD ANY OTHER PARTS OF UPR MICHIGAN INTO WATCH...THOUGH AT THE LEAST COULD SEE NEED FOR EVENTUAL ADVISORY FOR REST OF SCNTRL AND SOUTHEAST CWA. REST OF EXTENDED...DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SFC LOW TRACKS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN LK HURON BY THU EVENING. N TO NE WINDS ARE CYCLONIC IN WAKE OF THE LOW ACROSS LK SUPERIOR BUT H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -10C ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT. EXPECT COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THU NIGHT OVER INTERIOR WEST. MOST OF FRI SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPS PUSHING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. TEMPS GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH WEEKEND AS TROUGH CROSSES REGION. BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE IS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. MAY SEE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING OVER THE SOUTH. LOOKS MAINLY DRY EASTER INTO MON. STORM EARLIER ECMWF RUN SHOWED IS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SUPPOSE IT COULD COME BACK WEST...BUT RIGHT NOW SOLUTION IS TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPS WILL STAY AT OR BLO NORMAL AS THE COOLER WEATHER PATTERN THAT SETTLED IN LATE LAST WEEK PERSISTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF ALL THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KSAW LATE WED EVENING AS INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NW FRINGE OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD DEVELOP SOME MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES IN NE FLOW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS SFC HIGH PRES DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. TONIGHT/WED SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY 15-25KT WINDS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...STRONGEST OVER THE FAR W DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING...AND 10-20KT WINDS OVER THE E HALF. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 20-30KT WED NIGHT/THU AS THE LOW PRES TRACKS THRU THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MIGHT SEE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E ON THU. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THRU THU NIGHT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES TROF WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SAT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ012. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1214 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .AVIATION... OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THIS EVENING AGREES WITH NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND 00Z DTX RAOB TO GO MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWERING CIGS AND PRECIPITATION ONSET TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. IN FACT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE PULLED BACK PRECIPITATION FOR THE DETROIT TERMINALS ALL THE WAY BACK TO 00Z/24. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION ONSET AT KMBS APPEARS SET FOR 17Z WITH ALL SNOW MENTION. ADDED MODERATE SNOWFALL GROUP WITH VSBYS AT 1/2M. IF CONFIDENCE WERE TO IMPROVE ON MESOSCALE BAND PLACEMENT COULD BE LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AT KMBS. OTHERWISE ALL RAIN FOR FLINT SOUTHWARD...WITH TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTHERN SITES WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS OVERRUNNING WARM AIR SLAB BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. FOR DTW...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS OF LESS THAN 5000 FT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTED AT/AROUND 16Z WITH FLOW SWITCHING 030-040 AT 7 KNOTS OR GREATER. PRECIPITATION ONSET APPEARS TO OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN THE FORM OF POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...WITH IFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN WITH AN INCREASE IN NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT WEDNESDAY MORNING. * HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1050 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 UPDATE... THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING. WILL GIVE THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT THE OPPORTUNITY TO DIGEST THE FULL 00Z SUITE BEFORE MAKING A DETERMINATION ON THE HEADLINES. MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH FOR IS THE STRONG AND DEEP FGEN BAND THAT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CWA WED MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ITEM NUMBER ONE...A COLDER PRECIPITATION TYPE SOLUTION (PREDOMINATELY ALL SNOW) APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF M46...WITH A STRAIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTH. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ITEM NUMBER TWO...PRECIPITATION RATES COULD BE QUITE HIGH WITHIN A NARROW BAND BETWEEN 16-23Z WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO UPRIGHT AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION AND DEEP LOW STATIC STABILITY TO SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. UNKNOWN YET...WHERE EXACTLY THE FGEN BAND WILL BECOME POSITIONED. GUIDANCE BOTH 12KM NAM/13KM RAP AND THE 4KM NAM IS SUGGESTING A MESOSCALE BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OF ROUGHLY 25 MILES WIDE...OR THE WIDTH OF A COUNTY. OVERALL...THE NAM/ECMWF CONSENSUS ON PLACEMENT OF THE BAND HAS BEEN REASONABLY GOOD. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN OSCILLATIONS OF THE PLACEMENT IN THE HOURLY OUTPUT OF THE RAP. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE LOW QPF OF THE 12Z ARW/NMM HIRES SOLUTIONS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FGEN BAND TO ACTIVATE LOWER IN THE COLUMN OR FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD RUN THE RISK OF SEEING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FALL AS RAIN AND LEAVE THE EVENT UNDERACHIEVING IN A BIG WAY. WITH ALL OF THAT PRESENTED...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES TO FALL MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME PORTION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH. PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 DISCUSSION... MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAINLY TIMING ISSUES WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN TONIGHT...LOOKING TO START A COUPLE HOURS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE WAA PATTERN THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE AREA MILD OVERNIGHT. MUCH ATTENTION REMAINS ON THE MIDWEEK STORM AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE THOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO PTYPE AND AMOUNTS. THE SYSTEM WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCHES AND QPF TOTALS AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER THROUGH THE EVENT. A SFC FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND A GOOD FEED OF WARM AIR ALONG THE ISENTROPIC SLOPE THUS A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT SEEMS LIKELY. POSITIONING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY TO WHERE THE SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND PURE RAIN WILL FALL. THE COMPLEX AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL CUT INTO ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS BUT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE I69 CORRIDOR. FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE HAS BEEN TO LEAN MORE TOWARD A FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO AND AWAY FROM A HEAVY SNOW SCENARIO DUE TO THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR IN THE BL AND DEPTH OF WARM AIR /900-750MB/ ADVECTING IN ALOFT. WITH THE POSSIBLE DURATION OF THE FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTH BEING FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVER A QUARTER INCH. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, TIMING, AND PTYPE ISSUES...WILL HOLD ONTO THE WATCH ONE MORE PERIOD. OVERALL WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT NORTH OF I69 OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SNOW. AS FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE 850-700MB FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IN THE 15-18Z TIME WINDOW AS ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH PHASES WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME COMPRESSION OF THE FRONTAL SFC IN BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SFC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA SINKING SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL 700MB FRONT WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN MI WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT AS THE LOW DRAWS NEARER WE WILL LOOK FOR A RESURGENCE OF FGEN ALONG THE 850MB FRONT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB. THIS SECONDARY FGEN BAND WILL THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL NOT LIFT THROUGH LOWER MI UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING AND LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN MI WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. SO PTYPE CONCERNS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LIFTING THROUGH SE MI WILL ALLOW THE WARM SECTOR TO CLIP OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO HAVE INTRODUCED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF M59. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEALING WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DEFORMATION REGION OF THE EXITING LOW. WILL ONCE AGAIN LOOK TO THERMAL PROFILE CHANGING WITH THE COOLER AIR WRAPPING IN BUT LOOKS LIKE A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE MID WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST AND TAKE ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION OUT OF SE MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE ITS PLACE AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST ONE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP SMALLER SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING STEADILY ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SUCH SYSTEM FOR THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS LOW PREDICTABILITY DURING THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PERIOD WHILE ENOUGH WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR AREA ONCE IT DOES ARRIVE...OR POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO EXPECTATIONS ON PATTERN RECOGNITION THAT SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG UPPER JET AND TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WOULD THEN LEAVE BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK. MARINE... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THIS FRONT WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY BEHIND THE PASSING LOW. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON ALONG WITH STEADY SNOW. HYDROLOGY... A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE DETROIT AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE ABOUT A HALF OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE THUMB AND SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE SOME MAY FALL AS SNOW. THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL. THIRTY SIX HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...DRAINAGES AND SMALL CREEKS. MAIN RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES AND FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443. GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ361>363. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....DG UPDATE.......CB DISCUSSION...DRK/BT MARINE.......DRC HYDROLOGY....DRC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1108 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS OUR STORM FOR WEDNESDAY WORKING ACROSS UTAH. AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH COLORADO TONIGHT...CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. MAIN CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS A REDUCTION OF POPS WITH THE EXPECTED LEAD FGEN BAND ALONG WHAT AMOUNTS TO A WARM FRONT AROUND H7. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/RAP HIGHLIGHT THE PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT AND IT IS VERY DRY AIR THAT IS JUST SLOW TO BUDGE BELOW 10K FT. THE MODEL THAT IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTENING THIS LATER IS THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE RAP HAS OUR AREA DRY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HOPWRF MEMBERS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING COMING INTO THE WEST UNTIL AROUND 9Z...SO WAS RELUCTANT TO GO AS AGGRESSIVE AS WHAT THE GFS HAS. FOR POPS THOUGH...DID FOLLOW A TREND OF THE CAMS...WHICH SHOWS A BAND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z WITH THAT BAND TRYING TO FILL IN OVER TOWARD RED WING THROUGH 12Z. FOR P-TYPE...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE 50S SOUTH OF I-94...WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR US TO COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW...WITH INITIAL PRECIP STARTING OUT AS A MIX THAT WILL PROGRESSIVELY CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS MODEL SOLUTIONS TODAY HAVE ADDED MORE SPREAD TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST. IN A NUTSHELL...THE NAM AND GFS HAVE PUSHED THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH...WHICH WOULD GIVE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TWIN CITIES HEAVY SNOWFALL...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS PUSHED THINGS QUITE A BIT TO THE SOUTH. IN FACT...IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...MOST OF THE TWIN CITIES WILL NOT EVEN SEE SNOW WITH ONLY SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA HAVING HEAVY SNOW. TRYING TO SORT OUT THE DIFFERENCES STARTS WITH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CAMS AS WELL AS THE NAM AND GFS WOULD HAVE A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF MINNESOTA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS. THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN IA AND SPREADING EAST NORTHEAST INTO WI. THE DIFFERENCE SEEMS TIED TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. THEREFORE...WITH KEPT THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON SOUTHWEST THROUGH REDWOOD FALLS AND NEW ULM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS WOULD GIVE THESE AREAS TWO CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION SNOW. THE FIRST WOULD BE IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND THEN AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE. TOTALS COULD REACH INTO THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE. OFFICIAL AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS ARE MORE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE. WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI FOR HEAVY SNOW...THE WATCH WAS CHANGED TO A WARNING. SNOW TOTALS FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH THE HIGH END AMOUNTS FROM ALBERT LEA TO NEAR EAU CLAIRE. IN ADDITION...THESE AREAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SOME TREE DAMAGE MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE QUITE DIFFICULT IN THESE AREAS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH A NICE BULLSEYE SEEN WITH THE OMEGA NEARLY MAXED OUT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THE SNOW WILL END FOR THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE FA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE START ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR 50 DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES SINCE THERE SHOULD STILL BE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND LEAD TO CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP WILL BE A WINTRY MIX...WITH SNOW FAVORED OVERNIGHT...AND RAIN DURING THE DAY AS THE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 NE WINDS IN THE 15G25KT RANGE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS. AS FOR THE IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM...SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW FOR SRN MN...SO KAXN LIKELY TO AVOID THIS ACTION WHILE KSTC MAY AVOID MOST OF IT. AM KEEPING CONDS AS VFR AT BOTH KAXN-KSTC...THOUGH KSTC COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MVFR CONDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY AFTN TMRW. THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED WITH MOD-HVY SNOW AT TIMES... DROPPING CONDS INTO IFR-OR-LOWER AT TIMES MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK TMRW THRU MUCH OF TMRW AFTN. STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND TIMING OF HOW QUICKLY DRY AIR WILL BE OVERCOME IS STILL A BIT PROBLEMATIC... BUT THE OVERARCHING THOUGHT IS THAT LIGHTER -SN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA STARTING AROUND 12Z WITH THE MAIN IMPACTFUL -SN AROUND 16Z THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 22Z...POSSIBLY EVEN BEYOND 00Z IN THE WI TAF SITES. KMSP...HAVE TWEAKED THE DETAILS IN THE KMSP TAF IN BREAKING DOWN THE LIGHTER-TO-HEAVIER SNOW TIMING AFTER DAYBREAK. STILL COULD BE EVEN EARLIER THAN WHAT IS ADVERTISED PER A FEW SHORT-TERM MODELS WITH MVFR CONDS STILL AS EARLY AS 10Z AND VSBY INTO IFR RANGE AS EARLY AS 15Z. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NE WINDS WHICH MAY CAUSE BLSN ISSUES...ALONG WITH WINDS STAYING 030-050 ALL DAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15G25KT WHICH COULD IN AND OF ITSELF PRESENT RUNWAY USAGE CONCERNS. WINDS LOOKS TO BACK CLOSER TO NLY AFTER THE -SN ENDS TMRW EVE. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...SN ENDING IN MRNG. AFTN VFR. WINDS N 10-20KTS. FRI...VFR. WINDS S 10-20 KTS. SAT...MVFR. CHC -RA/-SN. WINDS NW 10-15KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ024>028. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIZ023. MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MNZ060-062-063-065>070-073>076. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ077-078-082>085-091>093. && $$ UPDATE...JPC SHORT TERM...MPG/RAH LONG TERM...JRB AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
343 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 THE SLOWER RAP MODEL AND HRRR MODEL ARE PREFERRED WHICH CONTINUE SNOW CONTINUING IN EASTERN AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BETTER GUESS IS WHEN THE THIRD OF THREE SNOW BANDS DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE SECOND ONGOING SNOW BAND WILL FALL APART. THE FORECAST BLENDS SOME OF THE SLOWER RAPID UPDATE MODELS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH ADDS AN INCH OR TWO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SWRN NEB AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. GIVEN THE WARM GROUND AND SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR LESS PER HOUR THUS FAR...FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS COULD ACTUALLY BE TOO HIGH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE OPEN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN DROP OFF. EARLIER GUSTS OF 60 TO 64 MPH HAVE VANISHED. MOST OF THOSE GUSTS WERE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT FROM 65 KT WINDS AT 3KFT PER KLNX VWP SO THE GUSTS ARE AT THE MERCY OF VERTICAL MIXING. SKIES BY MORNING SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AT ALL LEVELS. THE LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ARE MODEST. WINDS ALOFT WOULD CONTINUE STRONG PREVENTING A DEEP INVERSION IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE WRN SANDHILLS WHERE SINGLE OR NEAR SINGLE DIGITS AREA EXPECTED. ALL FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS WILL OPERATE IN PLACE. NO UPGRADES APPEAR TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM HAS GENERALLY BEEN WELL- BEHAVED. THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR A SURPRISE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS STORM. LASTLY...THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE RESULT OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE RAP HAS SHOWN ONLY WEAK SKILL WITH THIS FEATURE. THE 750MB BARRIER JET IS QUITE STRONG. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP TO AROUND 50 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...HOWEVER MODELS MAY BE UNDERDONE ON WHAT IS AVAILABLE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW MELT/EVAPORATION FROM PRECIP FROM ONGOING STORM. THAT SAID...MODELS FOCUS MOST OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH POCKETS ACROSS THE CWA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW POPS. TEMPS COOL OFF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY BY SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER AND COLD LINGER SOME RAIN/SNOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEB INTO SATURDAY. COLD AIR IS DRAWN IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40 FOR SATURDAY. A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF MARCH. WARM FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WARM UP FOR EASTER SUNDAY. HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...50S...AND DRY. EVEN WARMER...60S...FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS FOR MID WEEK...AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 A MAJOR WINTER STORM SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA AROUND 10Z ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL THUS FAR. VFR/LOCAL MVFR IS EXPECTED 10Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. WINDS TODAY 01035G45KT LOCALLY G50KT DECREASE TO 35025G40KT THIS EVENING AND TO 34015G25KT FROM 06Z ONWARD. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ006>010-025>029-036>038-057>059-069-070. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004-094. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005-022>024-035-056. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ071. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1249 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR REVISIONS ARE NEEDED WITH THE MID DAY UPDATE. HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS FIRST FRONTOGENETICAL BAND REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR EVIDENCE SUGGESTS A SECOND BAND IS BEGINNING TO FROM FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT A QUICK CHANGE TO SNOW IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. TO THE SOUTH...THINGS WERE STARTING TO DESTABILIZE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF THICK CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. SUBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE OF 500 J/KG WITH 1000 J/KG AREA NOT FAR SOUTH. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ATTENDANT TO EJECTING MID LEVEL LOW RIDES OVERHEAD. A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHEAST WAS NOTED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE WARM FRONT HAS BRIDGED NORTH. MOST SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TO THIS BOUNDARY LIGHTING UP BY 21Z. BULK SHEAR AND LOWER LEVEL HELICITY/SHEAR SUGGEST ALL MODES OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. SPC HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN LIGHT RISK WITH THEIR LATE MORNING UPDATE...AND OUTLINED A 5 PERCENT TORNADO RISK AS WELL. IN BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE AREAS...A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD RIDE AS FAR NORTH AS COLUMBUS...NORFOLK AND WAYNE LINE WHERE LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE FLIRTING WITH EITHER SIDE OR RAIN/SNOW LINE. SLEET WILL LIKELY OCCUR WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN THE OMAHA METRO...LOOKS LIKE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RULE THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN EXITING STORMS AND PRECIP SHIELD TO THE NORTHWEST. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BEGINS TO WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COMMA HEAD PRECIP SWINGS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THUS DECREASING SNOWFALL RATES ARE FORECAST THEN...LEAVING MUCH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND SOUTH WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 ...A VERY DYNAMIC 24 HOURS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY IN OUR NORTH AND POTENTIAL STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST... SYNOPSIS: LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AT 300 MB OFF THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...A 120KT JET MAX WAS DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/NOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HEADING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS...A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AT 850MB WITH A 50KT SWRLY JET EXTENDING ACROSS OKLAHOMA NEWD INTO SRN MISSOURI AND INDIANA. THE RELATIVELY WEAK MOIST TONGUE EXTENDED FROM TX/LA GULF COAST NWD TO KOAX. LATEST EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER AND EWD INTO NRN MISSOURI. OF NOTE...AS OF 09Z THE 32F ISOTHERM WAS QUICKLY CREEPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A FEW WAA SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA BUT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF AND EXIT THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS: THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PROGRESS EWD FROM NORTHERN COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 00Z/THU AND THEN SHIFT NEWD OVER THE CWA BY 06Z/THU. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID 70S IN OUR FAR SOUTH. CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE 19-20Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE 4KM NCAR ENSEMBLES INDICATE AS WELL AS RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND THE HRRR. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED BUT WITH FULL SUN POTENTIAL WE SHOULD GET A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF/WHEN CONVECTION DOES GET GOING...IT WOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS AND MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA AS THE DRYLINE THEN LIGHTS UP TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST. DO FEEL THAT SOME SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM. WINTER WX: THE ONLY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS HEADLINES WAS TO ADD BURT AND MONONA COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY AND END IT 3 HOURS EARLIER...AT 09Z. OTHERWISE THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS AS IS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND QUICKLY TURN RAIN OVER TO SNOW ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER CLOSE TO 18Z. WE THEN MARCH THE RA/SN LINE SWD THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS AND TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 BY MID/LATE EVENING. EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA WILL TURN OVER TO SNOW AROUND THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. HAVE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 5-7" IN THE WARNING AREA...TO 2-5" IN THE ADVISORY AREA. NEW 06Z NAM IS CONCERNING WITH COLDER AIR/INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE TRENDS. AN INCH OR SO MAY ACCUMULATE AROUND THE OMA/LNK METRO AREAS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF I-80. SNOW SHOULD BE WET/HEAVY INITIALLY WITH RAIN/SNOW AROUND 5:1 BUT AS STRONG CAA MOVES IN WE SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO AROUND 11:1 IN THE NORTH. BLOWING AND DRIFTING LOOK TO BE MAINLY AN ISSUE AFTER DARK AS THE SNOW BECOMES DRIER/LIGHTER. REGARDING WINDS: WITH COMPLEXITY OF ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO SNOW...WE FELT THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE WELL COVERED WITHIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A FEW COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WE ARE GOING TO TAKE THE LEAST COMPLICATED ROUTE THIS MORNING AND HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS CONDITIONS LIKELY WOULDN`T BE REACHED...IF AT ALL...UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON ANYWAY. SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL OUT AFTER 06Z WITH DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINING IN OUR NORTHEAST UNTIL AROUND 09Z OR SO. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE QUICK TO BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. DID KEEP SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN OUR FAR NORTH WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WITHIN THIS LONG-WAVE TROUGH A STRONGER...POTENTIALLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE TRACKING EWD INTO THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS GENERAL PATTERN BUT DIFFER IN TIMING AND LATITUDE TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA ON SATURDAY LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES AND WE MAY SEE AN ISO SHOWER OR TWO DURING THE DAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...ESPECIALLY IN SE NEB/SW IA...WILL OCCUR ON SAT NIGHT AS THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS TRACK ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID...BUT WE WILL CONT TO INCLUDE A RA/SN MIX ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. AFTER A COOL WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP WE SHOULD SEE A WARMUP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO EJECT NEAR THE END OF THIS FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 MAINLY IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT KOFK THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS CIGS REMAIN BELOW FL010. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...BEFORE A MIX OF SLEET...RAIN AND SNOW PREVAILS BEFORE 00Z. AFTER 00Z...SNOW...AND AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW...IS FORECAST TO DROP CIGS/VSBYS INTO VLIFR CATEGORY AT TIMES. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AFTER 06Z WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS. KLNK AND KOMA WILL SEE MVFR CIGS EARLY BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AROUND 21Z AND EXIT THE AREA BY 01Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS. THEN A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR IS FORECAST BY 06Z WHEN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WHEN SNOW ENDS...AND A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CIGS CONTINUES THROUGH 18Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ015-018-030>034-042. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016- 017. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ043. && $$ UPDATE...DERGAN SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UTAH. EAST OF THIS FEATURE...ZONAL FLOW EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EXTENDED NORTH FROM OFF THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA...TO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. CURRENT WV IMAGERY AS OF 3 AM CDT...HAS THE H5 LOW NOW CROSSING CENTRAL COLORADO...BEGINNING TO EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS JUST EAST OF DENVER. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST INTO NERN KS. NORTH OF THE LOW...AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED NORTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO INTO EASTERN WYOMING. ALONG AND WEST OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WERE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...WHILE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT. SKIES WERE CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHILE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 40 AT AINSWORTH TO 45 AT OGALLALA AND BROKEN BOW. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KEITH COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS AND THE NAM ARE A BIT SLOWER KEEPING SNOW GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALSO...INCREASED FORECAST WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO 57 MPH ON A HILLTOP NORTH OF NORTH PLATTE. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS INCREASE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING 60 MPH GUSTS WILL OCCUR IN SEVERAL LOCATION NEAR INTERSTATE 80. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS 70KT WINDS AT 800MB AND 750MB THIS AFTERNOON AND THE HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS OF OVER 50KT...58 MPH. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE DEVELOPING WINTER STORM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FOR TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...ENDING UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 00Z THUS. STRONG DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL DEVELOP ROUGHLY ALONG A IMPERIAL TO NORTH PLATTE...TO ONEILL LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW LIKELY DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WHICH WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND MISERABLE TRAVEL CONDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH RESPECT TO THE CURRENT FCST...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FCST AND GRIDS. MOST NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PCPN AROUND 3 HRS IN THE SERN CWA THIS MORNING WHICH REFLECTS THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR SOLNS WHICH WERE A TAD SLOWER OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE CHANGE OVER FOR NORTH PLATTE BEING IN THE NOON TO 2 PM TIME FRAME. THE INHERITED PTYPE GRIDS HAD THIS HANDLED REAL WELL AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE. AS FOR QPF/S AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NATL GUIDANCE FOR QPF/S AND SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT THE WPC SNOW ACCUM BLEND. THIS WAS BASED ON TWO ASSUMPTIONS...FIRST GROUND TEMPS ARE VERY WARM SINCE WE HAD 80 DEGREE HIGHS THE LAST TWO DAYS...AND SECOND...THE BULK OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AND THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD SLOW DOWN ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT. THE END FORECAST WAS A BROAD AREA OF 5 TO 8 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ROUGHLY 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM GRANT TO BREWSTER...TO ONEILL. WITH RESPECT TO HEADLINES FOR TODAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING. DECIDED AGAINST UPGRADING TO A BLIZZARD WARNING AS THERE IS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VISBYS BELOW 1/4 OF A MILE THIS AFTERNOON. IF BLIZZARD CONDS DO OCCUR...IT WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED AND WITHIN THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. BY EVENING...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NWRN MO WITH A SECONDARY DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP OVER NERN NEBRASKA INTO NRN IOWA. PCPN SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER THROUGH 09Z THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXTENDED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH 09Z. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN THE NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY. SOME DECENT LIFT WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS WAVE. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED HOWEVER...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH TO GET A FEW SHOWERS IN A TOP DOWN SATURATION TYPE SITUATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH THAT A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP AT THIS POINT IS EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH. LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE ROCKIES AND THEN TURN EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM...AND SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS EASTER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE WISE...COOL/CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN INTRUSION OF CANADIAN AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY/S DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS AGREE THIS COULD BE A RATHER POTENT CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE A WARM UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 A MAJOR WINTER STORM SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA AROUND 10Z ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL THUS FAR. VFR/LOCAL MVFR IS EXPECTED 10Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. WINDS TODAY 01035G45KT LOCALLY G50KT DECREASE TO 35025G40KT THIS EVENING AND TO 34015G25KT FROM 06Z ONWARD. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ006-008-025-026-036-037-057>059-069-070. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004-094. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005-022>024-035-056. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ007-009-010- 027>029-038. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ071. && $$ UPDATE...CDC SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER SHORT TERM...BUTTLER LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1104 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UTAH. EAST OF THIS FEATURE...ZONAL FLOW EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EXTENDED NORTH FROM OFF THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA...TO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. CURRENT WV IMAGERY AS OF 3 AM CDT...HAS THE H5 LOW NOW CROSSING CENTRAL COLORADO...BEGINNING TO EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS JUST EAST OF DENVER. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST INTO NERN KS. NORTH OF THE LOW...AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED NORTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO INTO EASTERN WYOMING. ALONG AND WEST OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WERE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...WHILE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT. SKIES WERE CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHILE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 40 AT AINSWORTH TO 45 AT OGALLALA AND BROKEN BOW. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KEITH COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS AND THE NAM ARE A BIT SLOWER KEEPING SNOW GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALSO...INCREASED FORECAST WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO 57 MPH ON A HILLTOP NORTH OF NORTH PLATTE. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS INCREASE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING 60 MPH GUSTS WILL OCCUR IN SEVERAL LOCATION NEAR INTERSTATE 80. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS 70KT WINDS AT 800MB AND 750MB THIS AFTERNOON AND THE HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS OF OVER 50KT...58 MPH. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE DEVELOPING WINTER STORM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FOR TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...ENDING UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 00Z THUS. STRONG DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL DEVELOP ROUGHLY ALONG A IMPERIAL TO NORTH PLATTE...TO ONEILL LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW LIKELY DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WHICH WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND MISERABLE TRAVEL CONDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH RESPECT TO THE CURRENT FCST...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FCST AND GRIDS. MOST NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PCPN AROUND 3 HRS IN THE SERN CWA THIS MORNING WHICH REFLECTS THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR SOLNS WHICH WERE A TAD SLOWER OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE CHANGE OVER FOR NORTH PLATTE BEING IN THE NOON TO 2 PM TIME FRAME. THE INHERITED PTYPE GRIDS HAD THIS HANDLED REAL WELL AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE. AS FOR QPF/S AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NATL GUIDANCE FOR QPF/S AND SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT THE WPC SNOW ACCUM BLEND. THIS WAS BASED ON TWO ASSUMPTIONS...FIRST GROUND TEMPS ARE VERY WARM SINCE WE HAD 80 DEGREE HIGHS THE LAST TWO DAYS...AND SECOND...THE BULK OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AND THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD SLOW DOWN ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT. THE END FORECAST WAS A BROAD AREA OF 5 TO 8 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ROUGHLY 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM GRANT TO BREWSTER...TO ONEILL. WITH RESPECT TO HEADLINES FOR TODAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING. DECIDED AGAINST UPGRADING TO A BLIZZARD WARNING AS THERE IS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VISBYS BELOW 1/4 OF A MILE THIS AFTERNOON. IF BLIZZARD CONDS DO OCCUR...IT WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED AND WITHIN THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. BY EVENING...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NWRN MO WITH A SECONDARY DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP OVER NERN NEBRASKA INTO NRN IOWA. PCPN SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER THROUGH 09Z THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXTENDED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH 09Z. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN THE NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY. SOME DECENT LIFT WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS WAVE. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED HOWEVER...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH TO GET A FEW SHOWERS IN A TOP DOWN SATURATION TYPE SITUATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH THAT A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP AT THIS POINT IS EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH. LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE ROCKIES AND THEN TURN EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM...AND SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS EASTER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE WISE...COOL/CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN INTRUSION OF CANADIAN AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY/S DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS AGREE THIS COULD BE A RATHER POTENT CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE A WARM UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 A POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINTRY WEATHER AND PERIODS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...CIGS WILL FALL THIS MORNING TO UNDER 1000 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING CIGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 1000 FT AGL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. LOOK FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. VISBYS MAY REACH A QUARTER MILE WITH 200 FT AGL CIGS. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT CIGS BELOW 1000 FT AGL TODAY...IMPROVING TO 5000 FT AGL AFTER 01Z THURSDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS 1/2SM THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY FALL AS LOW AS 400 FT AGL WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM 17Z THROUGH 21Z WEDS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ006-008-025-026-036-037-057>059-069-070. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004-094. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005-022>024-035-056. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ007-009-010- 027>029-038. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ071. && $$ UPDATE...CDC SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER SHORT TERM...BUTTLER LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 ...A VERY DYNAMIC 24 HOURS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY IN OUR NORTH AND POTENTIAL STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST... SYNOPSIS: LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AT 300 MB OFF THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...A 120KT JET MAX WAS DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/NOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HEADING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS...A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AT 850MB WITH A 50KT SWRLY JET EXTENDING ACROSS OKLAHOMA NEWD INTO SRN MISSOURI AND INDIANA. THE RELATIVELY WEAK MOIST TONGUE EXTENDED FROM TX/LA GULF COAST NWD TO KOAX. LATEST EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER AND EWD INTO NRN MISSOURI. OF NOTE...AS OF 09Z THE 32F ISOTHERM WAS QUICKLY CREEPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A FEW WAA SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA BUT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF AND EXIT THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS: THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PROGRESS EWD FROM NORTHERN COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 00Z/THU AND THEN SHIFT NEWD OVER THE CWA BY 06Z/THU. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID 70S IN OUR FAR SOUTH. CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE 19-20Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE 4KM NCAR ENSEMBLES INDICATE AS WELL AS RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND THE HRRR. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED BUT WITH FULL SUN POTENTIAL WE SHOULD GET A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF/WHEN CONVECTION DOES GET GOING...IT WOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS AND MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA AS THE DRYLINE THEN LIGHTS UP TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST. DO FEEL THAT SOME SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM. WINTER WX: THE ONLY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS HEADLINES WAS TO ADD BURT AND MONONA COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY AND END IT 3 HOURS EARLIER...AT 09Z. OTHERWISE THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS AS IS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND QUICKLY TURN RAIN OVER TO SNOW ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER CLOSE TO 18Z. WE THEN MARCH THE RA/SN LINE SWD THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS AND TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 BY MID/LATE EVENING. EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA WILL TURN OVER TO SNOW AROUND THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. HAVE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 5-7" IN THE WARNING AREA...TO 2-5" IN THE ADVISORY AREA. NEW 06Z NAM IS CONCERNING WITH COLDER AIR/INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE TRENDS. AN INCH OR SO MAY ACCUMULATE AROUND THE OMA/LNK METRO AREAS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF I-80. SNOW SHOULD BE WET/HEAVY INITIALLY WITH RAIN/SNOW AROUND 5:1 BUT AS STRONG CAA MOVES IN WE SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO AROUND 11:1 IN THE NORTH. BLOWING AND DRIFTING LOOK TO BE MAINLY AN ISSUE AFTER DARK AS THE SNOW BECOMES DRIER/LIGHTER. REGARDING WINDS: WITH COMPLEXITY OF ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO SNOW...WE FELT THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE WELL COVERED WITHIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A FEW COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WE ARE GOING TO TAKE THE LEAST COMPLICATED ROUTE THIS MORNING AND HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS CONDITIONS LIKELY WOULDN`T BE REACHED...IF AT ALL...UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON ANYWAY. SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL OUT AFTER 06Z WITH DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINING IN OUR NORTHEAST UNTIL AROUND 09Z OR SO. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE QUICK TO BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. DID KEEP SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN OUR FAR NORTH WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WITHIN THIS LONG-WAVE TROUGH A STRONGER...POTENTIALLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE TRACKING EWD INTO THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS GENERAL PATTERN BUT DIFFER IN TIMING AND LATITUDE TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA ON SATURDAY LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES AND WE MAY SEE AN ISO SHOWER OR TWO DURING THE DAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...ESPECIALLY IN SE NEB/SW IA...WILL OCCUR ON SAT NIGHT AS THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS TRACK ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID...BUT WE WILL CONT TO INCLUDE A RA/SN MIX ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. AFTER A COOL WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP WE SHOULD SEE A WARMUP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO EJECT NEAR THE END OF THIS FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD CIGS WILL BE LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK WHERE MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DVLP BY AFTN WITH -RA/DZ AS WELL. ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY AT KLNK/KOMA BY LATE AFTN FOLLOWED BY MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. THE RA WILL BECOME SN AT KOFK THIS EVNG WITH SOME +SN POSSIBLE THERE. KOMA/KLNK WILL LIKELY SEE A RA/SN MIX BECOME ALL SN FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT...BUT LESS IMPACTS THAN AT KOFK. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THEY VEER TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS AOA 25 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KT ARE LIKELY. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ015-018-030>034-042. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016-017. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ043. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
402 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 ...A VERY DYNAMIC 24 HOURS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY IN OUR NORTH AND POTENTIAL STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST... SYNOPSIS: LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AT 300 MB OFF THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...A 120KT JET MAX WAS DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/NOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HEADING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS...A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AT 850MB WITH A 50KT SWRLY JET EXTENDING ACROSS OKLAHOMA NEWD INTO SRN MISSOURI AND INDIANA. THE RELATIVELY WEAK MOIST TONGUE EXTENDED FROM TX/LA GULF COAST NWD TO KOAX. LATEST EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER AND EWD INTO NRN MISSOURI. OF NOTE...AS OF 09Z THE 32F ISOTHERM WAS QUICKLY CREEPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A FEW WAA SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA BUT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF AND EXIT THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS: THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PROGRESS EWD FROM NORTHERN COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 00Z/THU AND THEN SHIFT NEWD OVER THE CWA BY 06Z/THU. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID 70S IN OUR FAR SOUTH. CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE 19-20Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE 4KM NCAR ENSEMBLES INDICATE AS WELL AS RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND THE HRRR. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED BUT WITH FULL SUN POTENTIAL WE SHOULD GET A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF/WHEN CONVECTION DOES GET GOING...IT WOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS AND MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA AS THE DRYLINE THEN LIGHTS UP TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST. DO FEEL THAT SOME SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM. WINTER WX: THE ONLY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS HEADLINES WAS TO ADD BURT AND MONONA COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY AND END IT 3 HOURS EARLIER...AT 09Z. OTHERWISE THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS AS IS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND QUICKLY TURN RAIN OVER TO SNOW ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER CLOSE TO 18Z. WE THEN MARCH THE RA/SN LINE SWD THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS AND TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 BY MID/LATE EVENING. EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA WILL TURN OVER TO SNOW AROUND THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. HAVE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 5-7" IN THE WARNING AREA...TO 2-5" IN THE ADVISORY AREA. NEW 06Z NAM IS CONCERNING WITH COLDER AIR/INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE TRENDS. AN INCH OR SO MAY ACCUMULATE AROUND THE OMA/LNK METRO AREAS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF I-80. SNOW SHOULD BE WET/HEAVY INITIALLY WITH RAIN/SNOW AROUND 5:1 BUT AS STRONG CAA MOVES IN WE SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO AROUND 11:1 IN THE NORTH. BLOWING AND DRIFTING LOOK TO BE MAINLY AN ISSUE AFTER DARK AS THE SNOW BECOMES DRIER/LIGHTER. REGARDING WINDS: WITH COMPLEXITY OF ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO SNOW...WE FELT THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE WELL COVERED WITHIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A FEW COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WE ARE GOING TO TAKE THE LEAST COMPLICATED ROUTE THIS MORNING AND HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS CONDITIONS LIKELY WOULDN`T BE REACHED...IF AT ALL...UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON ANYWAY. SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL OUT AFTER 06Z WITH DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINING IN OUR NORTHEAST UNTIL AROUND 09Z OR SO. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE QUICK TO BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. DID KEEP SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN OUR FAR NORTH WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WITHIN THIS LONG-WAVE TROUGH A STRONGER...POTENTIALLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE TRACKING EWD INTO THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS GENERAL PATTERN BUT DIFFER IN TIMING AND LATITUDE TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA ON SATURDAY LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES AND WE MAY SEE AN ISO SHOWER OR TWO DURING THE DAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...ESPECIALLY IN SE NEB/SW IA...WILL OCCUR ON SAT NIGHT AS THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS TRACK ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID...BUT WE WILL CONT TO INCLUDE A RA/SN MIX ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. AFTER A COOL WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP WE SHOULD SEE A WARMUP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO EJECT NEAR THE END OF THIS FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT KOFK/KOMA IN THE MORNING...AND THEN TO IFR AROUND MIDDAY AT KOFK AND POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE TAF CYCLE AT KOMA. AT KOFK...RAIN SHOULD START AROUND 12-15Z...CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY NOT BE FAST ENOUGH BUT IS TRENDING FASTER FROM PREVIOUS TAF SETS. HAVE INDICATED A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE EVENING AT KOMA. KLNK MAY STAY IN THE WARM AIR LONGER...WITH MORE OF A SHOWERY TYPE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN AND PERHAPS RAIN/SNOW LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ015-018-030>034-042. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016-017. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ043. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UTAH. EAST OF THIS FEATURE...ZONAL FLOW EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EXTENDED NORTH FROM OFF THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA...TO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. CURRENT WV IMAGERY AS OF 3 AM CDT...HAS THE H5 LOW NOW CROSSING CENTRAL COLORADO...BEGINNING TO EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS JUST EAST OF DENVER. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST INTO NERN KS. NORTH OF THE LOW...AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED NORTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO INTO EASTERN WYOMING. ALONG AND WEST OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WERE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...WHILE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT. SKIES WERE CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHILE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 40 AT AINSWORTH TO 45 AT OGALLALA AND BROKEN BOW. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE DEVELOPING WINTER STORM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FOR TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...ENDING UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 00Z THUS. STRONG DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL DEVELOP ROUGHLY ALONG A IMPERIAL TO NORTH PLATTE...TO ONEILL LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW LIKELY DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WHICH WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND MISERABLE TRAVEL CONDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH RESPECT TO THE CURRENT FCST...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FCST AND GRIDS. MOST NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PCPN AROUND 3 HRS IN THE SERN CWA THIS MORNING WHICH REFLECTS THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR SOLNS WHICH WERE A TAD SLOWER OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE CHANGE OVER FOR NORTH PLATTE BEING IN THE NOON TO 2 PM TIME FRAME. THE INHERITED PTYPE GRIDS HAD THIS HANDLED REAL WELL AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE. AS FOR QPF/S AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NATL GUIDANCE FOR QPF/S AND SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT THE WPC SNOW ACCUM BLEND. THIS WAS BASED ON TWO ASSUMPTIONS...FIRST GROUND TEMPS ARE VERY WARM SINCE WE HAD 80 DEGREE HIGHS THE LAST TWO DAYS...AND SECOND...THE BULK OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AND THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD SLOW DOWN ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT. THE END FORECAST WAS A BROAD AREA OF 5 TO 8 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ROUGHLY 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM GRANT TO BREWSTER...TO ONEILL. WITH RESPECT TO HEADLINES FOR TODAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING. DECIDED AGAINST UPGRADING TO A BLIZZARD WARNING AS THERE IS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VISBYS BELOW 1/4 OF A MILE THIS AFTERNOON. IF BLIZZARD CONDS DO OCCUR...IT WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED AND WITHIN THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. BY EVENING...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NWRN MO WITH A SECONDARY DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP OVER NERN NEBRASKA INTO NRN IOWA. PCPN SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER THROUGH 09Z THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXTENDED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH 09Z. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN THE NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY. SOME DECENT LIFT WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS WAVE. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED HOWEVER...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH TO GET A FEW SHOWERS IN A TOP DOWN SATURATION TYPE SITUATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH THAT A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP AT THIS POINT IS EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH. LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE ROCKIES AND THEN TURN EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM...AND SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS EASTER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE WISE...COOL/CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN INTRUSION OF CANADIAN AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY/S DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS AGREE THIS COULD BE A RATHER POTENT CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE A WARM UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 A STRONG WINTER STORM WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ...INCLUDING THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z AT KVTN AND 11Z AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR OR SOON AFTER 12Z. AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES AFTER 18Z...VISIBILITIES FORECAST NEAR 1/2 SM SN BLSN AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. WINDS WILL ALSO BE VERY STRONG NEAR 36029G42KT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ006-008-025-026-036-037- 058-059-069-070. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004-094. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005-022>024-035-056-057. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ007-009-010-027>029-038. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ071. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER SHORT TERM...BUTTLER LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
240 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING... THEN CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US TODAY WITH A WARM SOUTHERLY WIND THAT IS GUSTING TO 20-25KT PRETTY MUCH AS FORECAST. RAP SOUNDINGS WERE ALL OVER THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL MID-20S BEING REPORTED...LEADING TO MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 18-22%. WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...SO THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS WORKED OUT WELL FROM THE CRITERION STAND POINT. THE IFD STATEMENT WILL EXPIRE AT 9PM. A LIGHT 3-6KT WIND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPMENT...WITH NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE OF STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...THOUGH EVEN THOUGH SATURATION IS NEVER QUITE REALIZED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH HOLDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL SQUELCH ANY CONVECTION...EVEN THOUGH A COUPLE HI-RES WRFS SHOW ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG A SEABREEZE. H10-H85 THICKNESSES ONLY BUMP UP ABOUT 5M...SO WE SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF TODAYS HIGHS...74-79. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW SHEARS AND LIFTS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...A TRAILING COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE TENN VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE SLOWED RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MERGING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...SUCH THAT AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT IS COMPLETELY DRY. HAVE CUT BACK LIKELY POPS SIGNIFICANTLY PRIOR TO 06Z..AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH BETWEEN 06Z-12Z GIVEN THE 12Z ECMWF RUN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE MOSTLY WEAK BY THE TIME THE FRONT GETS HERE...WITH THE MAIN DCVA WELL OFF TO THE BOTH AND A RELATIVELY WEAK (RIGHT ENTRANCE) UPPER JET. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...MOSTLY ELEVATED OWING TO NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION EARLY IN THE EVENING...SO ANY ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE...WITH BETTER CHANCES POSSIBLY ON FRIDAY INT HE EAST IF THE SYSTEM IS INDEED SLOWER. LOWS WILL BE QUITE A BIT MILDER...55-62 && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...BECOMING ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE PREVAILING FLOW AND STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A TREND FROM LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING TAPERING OFF PROGRESSIVELY FROM THE WEST TO A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF I95 BY EARLY (00Z) FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE EAST WHERE THE TIMING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH CAPES APPROACHING 1K JOULES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON (PRIMARILY DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5C/KM). LOW LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND MID LEVEL FORCING MINIMAL AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DELAY OF COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 70 TO 75 AND EVEN THE NORTHWEST WILL REACH UPPER 60S DESPITE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THEY WILL SEE CLEARING AND HAVE SOME TIME TO WARM BEFORE COOL AIR GAINS THE UPPER HAND. LINGERING CLOUDINESS IN THE EAST WILL CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS RADIATES DOWN INTO THE 40 TO 45 RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S DUE TO THE EARLY CLOUDINESS AND MIXING TO DELAY THE DIURNAL CRASH. FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...A PROGRESSIVE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR OVER US ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE MID TO LATE WEEKEND AS ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTIVE REGIME AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH...BUT LATEST TRENDS ARE FASTER...AND SHOWERS WOULD BE TAPERING OFF QUICKLY IN THE WEST AND ENDING BY MONDAY EVENING IN THE EAST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BENEFIT FROM THE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND MILD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND MONDAYS COLD FRONT. WITH COOL AIR SETTLING IN PLACE...LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY... UNDER BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING....WITH 20-25KT WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING BY 00Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...MOSTLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. KFAY MAY BE ONLY TAF SITE TO HAVE A CHANCE AT STRATUS...AND EVEN THAT CHANCE IS LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE RESULTING IN A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR VSBYS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NC ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVED ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 335 AM WEDNESDAY... AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM UNTIL 9 PM... DRY AIR WILL HOLD IN PLACE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY MOSTLY IN THE 20- 25% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A FEW AREAS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT HAVE DROPPED TO 10-15%. THIS COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE SW AROUND 15 KT GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AND LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE (STILL JUST 5-6%) WILL CONTINUE THE ELEVATED RISK FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...22 FIRE WEATHER...HARTFIELD/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING... THEN CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY... THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS A LITTLE IN THE PIEDMONT GIVEN THAT VALUES WERE STARTING LOWER THAN FORECAST AND MIXING IN RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED SOME UPPER 20S WERE POSSIBLE. RELATING TO THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER HIGHLIGHTED TODAY...THESE CHANGES STILL KEEP RH VALUES AROUND 20% OR HIGHER. OTHERWISE...THE DRY FORECAST WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S CONTINUES. -22 FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET BUT WARMER... AS THE SW FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PUMPS THICKNESSES UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL (BY AT LEAST 20-25 M)... WHILE THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT AND RESULTING SUBSIDENCE LIMITS HIGH CLOUDINESS AND MAXIMIZES HEATING. EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS TODAY... MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. GIVEN THE INCREASING MSLP GRADIENT TODAY... BLUSTERY WINDS ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF MIXING THIS MORNING... AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ARE LIKELY. THESE WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW RH (22-29%) WILL RAISE THE RISK OF ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED THICKNESSES... THE WARM SIDE OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED... AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM 74-78. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA... LEADING TO FORMATION OF PATCHY SHALLOW STRATUS. WILL INDICATE SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY... AND IF MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS LATER TODAY TREND TOWARD GREATER THICKNESS AND COVERAGE... FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BEEF UP SKY COVER IN THE HOURS APPROACHING SUNRISE TONIGHT. WITH A LIGHT SW WIND PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT... LOWS WILL BE MILD... 49-55. THU/THU NIGHT: ANOTHER BREEZY AND GUSTY DAY WITH A CONTINUED TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT. THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER WILL OPEN UP BUT REMAIN A POTENT WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THU NIGHT... AND THIS WILL HELP BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE SE COAST WITH GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT... LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND RISING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN HOWEVER IS MARGINAL WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MULTIPLE LAYERS OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR... AND THE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SIMILARLY MUTED WITH ONLY WEAK SHALLOW MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT BEST... WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED JET OVER THE MIDATLANTIC REGION... AND MINOR DPVA. MODELS APPEAR TO REFLECT THESE FACTORS IN THEIR QPF (LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AREAWIDE AND UNDER A TENTH IN MANY SPOTS) AND PRECIP PATTERNS (QUITE PATCHY IN NATURE). HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN A BIT BUT KEPT THE SLOW TREND UP TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS THU NIGHT... ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO KNOCK THIS DOWN FURTHER IF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO APPEAR UNIMPRESSIVE. HIGHS 73-79 AND WARM LOWS OF 54-62 THU NIGHT. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY... FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS PARENT LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS GRADUALLY SLOWING THE TIMING...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS A FEW THINGS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. FIRST...LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE MORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES IN. STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SECOND...WITH BETTER DIURNAL TIMING...INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER TO GO WITH THE 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK SHEAR AVAILABLE. THE HIGHEST CAPE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THUS THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S FROM NW TO SE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY. LATEST EURO RUN DOES SUGGEST THE EXITING FRONT MAY GET HELD UP A BIT WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY TO PURSUE THAT LINE OF THINKING. IN GENERAL...A NICE DAY ALTHOUGH A BIT COOLER...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT NEAR 50 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...BECOMING ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE PREVAILING FLOW AND STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A TREND FROM LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING TAPERING OFF PROGRESSIVELY FROM THE WEST TO A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF I95 BY EARLY (00Z) FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE EAST WHERE THE TIMING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH CAPES APPROACHING 1K JOULES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON (PRIMARILY DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5C/KM). LOW LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND MID LEVEL FORCING MINIMAL AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DELAY OF COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 70 TO 75 AND EVEN THE NORTHWEST WILL REACH UPPER 60S DESPITE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THEY WILL SEE CLEARING AND HAVE SOME TIME TO WARM BEFORE COOL AIR GAINS THE UPPER HAND. LINGERING CLOUDINESS IN THE EAST WILL CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS RADIATES DOWN INTO THE 40 TO 45 RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S DUE TO THE EARLY CLOUDINESS AND MIXING TO DELAY THE DIURNAL CRASH. FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...A PROGRESSIVE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR OVER US ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE MID TO LATE WEEKEND AS ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER60S...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTIVE REGIME AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH...BUT LATEST TRENDS ARE FASTER...AND SHOWERS WOULD BE TAPERING OFF QUICKLY IN THE WEST AND ENDING BY MONDAY EVENING IN THE EAST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BENEFIT FROM THE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND MILD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND MONDAYS COLD FRONT. WITH COOL AIR SETTLING IN PLACE...LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY... UNDER BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING....WITH 20-25KT WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING BY 00Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...MOSTLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. KFAY MAY BE ONLY TAF SITE TO HAVE A CHANCE AT STRATUS...AND EVEN THAT CHANCE IS LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE RESULTING IN A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR VSBYS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NC ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVED ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 335 AM WEDNESDAY... AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM... AFTER COORDINATION YESTERDAY WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS. DRY AIR WILL HOLD IN PLACE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT 20-25%... AND THIS COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE SW AROUND 15 KT GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AND LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE (STILL JUST 5-6%) WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY. WILL STICK WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HEADLINES IN THE PRESUPPRESSION FORECAST TO COMMUNICATE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER. -GIH/22 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/22 SHORT TERM...ELLIS LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...22 FIRE WEATHER...HARTFIELD/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
150 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING... THEN CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY... THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS A LITTLE IN THE PIEDMONT GIVEN THAT VALUES WERE STARTING LOWER THAN FORECAST AND MIXING IN RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED SOME UPPER 20S WERE POSSIBLE. RELATING TO THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER HIGHLIGHTED TODAY...THESE CHANGES STILL KEEP RH VALUES AROUND 20% OR HIGHER. OTHERWISE...THE DRY FORECAST WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S CONTINUES. -22 FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET BUT WARMER... AS THE SW FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PUMPS THICKNESSES UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL (BY AT LEAST 20-25 M)... WHILE THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT AND RESULTING SUBSIDENCE LIMITS HIGH CLOUDINESS AND MAXIMIZES HEATING. EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS TODAY... MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. GIVEN THE INCREASING MSLP GRADIENT TODAY... BLUSTERY WINDS ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF MIXING THIS MORNING... AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ARE LIKELY. THESE WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW RH (22-29%) WILL RAISE THE RISK OF ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED THICKNESSES... THE WARM SIDE OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED... AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM 74-78. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA... LEADING TO FORMATION OF PATCHY SHALLOW STRATUS. WILL INDICATE SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY... AND IF MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS LATER TODAY TREND TOWARD GREATER THICKNESS AND COVERAGE... FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BEEF UP SKY COVER IN THE HOURS APPROACHING SUNRISE TONIGHT. WITH A LIGHT SW WIND PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT... LOWS WILL BE MILD... 49-55. THU/THU NIGHT: ANOTHER BREEZY AND GUSTY DAY WITH A CONTINUED TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT. THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER WILL OPEN UP BUT REMAIN A POTENT WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THU NIGHT... AND THIS WILL HELP BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE SE COAST WITH GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT... LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND RISING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN HOWEVER IS MARGINAL WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MULTIPLE LAYERS OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR... AND THE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SIMILARLY MUTED WITH ONLY WEAK SHALLOW MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT BEST... WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED JET OVER THE MIDATLANTIC REGION... AND MINOR DPVA. MODELS APPEAR TO REFLECT THESE FACTORS IN THEIR QPF (LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AREAWIDE AND UNDER A TENTH IN MANY SPOTS) AND PRECIP PATTERNS (QUITE PATCHY IN NATURE). HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN A BIT BUT KEPT THE SLOW TREND UP TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS THU NIGHT... ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO KNOCK THIS DOWN FURTHER IF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO APPEAR UNIMPRESSIVE. HIGHS 73-79 AND WARM LOWS OF 54-62 THU NIGHT. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY... FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS PARENT LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS GRADUALLY SLOWING THE TIMING...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS A FEW THINGS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. FIRST...LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE MORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES IN. STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SECOND...WITH BETTER DIURNAL TIMING...INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER TO GO WITH THE 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK SHEAR AVAILABLE. THE HIGHEST CAPE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THUS THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S FROM NW TO SE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY. LATEST EURO RUN DOES SUGGEST THE EXITING FRONT MAY GET HELD UP A BIT WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY TO PURSUE THAT LINE OF THINKING. IN GENERAL...A NICE DAY ALTHOUGH A BIT COOLER...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT NEAR 50 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY... WHILE SOLUTIONS IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STILL VERY MUCH APART ON HOW TO HANDLE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST ON EASTER SUNDAY...THE UPSHOT FOR CENTRAL NC IS THE SAME...ALTHOUGH FOR DIFFERENT REASONS. FOR NOW...BOTH MODELS KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY ON EASTER UNTIL LATE SUNDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW...HOWEVER THIS IS ENCOURAGING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY EASTER WILL BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM. IF THE FORECAST BUSTS...THE TRIAD AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO GET PRECIPITATION FIRST. GOING WITH THE DRIER FORECAST WILL GO WITH A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN COMING IN SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWS ONLY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BOTH MODELS SHOW BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AFFECTS THE AREA. THE REAL DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS VERY PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND AND IT BRINGS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN PRECIPITATION WITH IT TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE LOW IN THE GFS HANGS BACK OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BECOMES DISCONNECTED FROM THE INITIAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTH AND THE WHOLE SYSTEM MEANDERS AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE LOW FINALLY MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE EC SOLUTION ON THE OTHER HAND HAS CENTRAL NC DRY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH BIG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA GOING INTO MIDWEEK. HAVE HEDGED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC SOLUTION FOR MIDWEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHICH SOLUTION PROVES CORRECT. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY... UNDER BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING....WITH 20-25KT WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING BY 00Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...MOSTLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. KFAY MAY BE ONLY TAF SITE TO HAVE A CHANCE AT STRATUS...AND EVEN THAT CHANCE IS LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE RESULTING IN A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR VSBYS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NC ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVED ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 335 AM WEDNESDAY... AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM... AFTER COORDINATION YESTERDAY WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS. DRY AIR WILL HOLD IN PLACE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT 20-25%... AND THIS COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE SW AROUND 15 KT GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AND LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE (STILL JUST 5-6%) WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY. WILL STICK WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HEADLINES IN THE PRESUPPRESSION FORECAST TO COMMUNICATE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER. -GIH/22 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/22 SHORT TERM...ELLIS LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...22 FIRE WEATHER...HARTFIELD/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1100 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING... THEN CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY... THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS A LITTLE IN THE PIEDMONT GIVEN THAT VALUES WERE STARTING LOWER THAN FORECAST AND MIXING IN RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED SOME UPPER 20S WERE POSSIBLE. RELATING TO THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER HIGHLIGHTED TODAY...THESE CHANGES STILL KEEP RH VALUES AROUND 20% OR HIGHER. OTHERWISE...THE DRY FORECAST WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S CONTINUES. -22 FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET BUT WARMER... AS THE SW FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PUMPS THICKNESSES UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL (BY AT LEAST 20-25 M)... WHILE THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT AND RESULTING SUBSIDENCE LIMITS HIGH CLOUDINESS AND MAXIMIZES HEATING. EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS TODAY... MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. GIVEN THE INCREASING MSLP GRADIENT TODAY... BLUSTERY WINDS ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF MIXING THIS MORNING... AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ARE LIKELY. THESE WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW RH (22-29%) WILL RAISE THE RISK OF ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED THICKNESSES... THE WARM SIDE OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED... AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM 74-78. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA... LEADING TO FORMATION OF PATCHY SHALLOW STRATUS. WILL INDICATE SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY... AND IF MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS LATER TODAY TREND TOWARD GREATER THICKNESS AND COVERAGE... FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BEEF UP SKY COVER IN THE HOURS APPROACHING SUNRISE TONIGHT. WITH A LIGHT SW WIND PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT... LOWS WILL BE MILD... 49-55. THU/THU NIGHT: ANOTHER BREEZY AND GUSTY DAY WITH A CONTINUED TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT. THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER WILL OPEN UP BUT REMAIN A POTENT WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THU NIGHT... AND THIS WILL HELP BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE SE COAST WITH GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT... LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND RISING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN HOWEVER IS MARGINAL WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MULTIPLE LAYERS OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR... AND THE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SIMILARLY MUTED WITH ONLY WEAK SHALLOW MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT BEST... WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED JET OVER THE MIDATLANTIC REGION... AND MINOR DPVA. MODELS APPEAR TO REFLECT THESE FACTORS IN THEIR QPF (LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AREAWIDE AND UNDER A TENTH IN MANY SPOTS) AND PRECIP PATTERNS (QUITE PATCHY IN NATURE). HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN A BIT BUT KEPT THE SLOW TREND UP TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS THU NIGHT... ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO KNOCK THIS DOWN FURTHER IF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO APPEAR UNIMPRESSIVE. HIGHS 73-79 AND WARM LOWS OF 54-62 THU NIGHT. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY... FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS PARENT LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS GRADUALLY SLOWING THE TIMING...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS A FEW THINGS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. FIRST...LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE MORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES IN. STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SECOND...WITH BETTER DIURNAL TIMING...INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER TO GO WITH THE 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK SHEAR AVAILABLE. THE HIGHEST CAPE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THUS THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S FROM NW TO SE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY. LATEST EURO RUN DOES SUGGEST THE EXITING FRONT MAY GET HELD UP A BIT WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY TO PURSUE THAT LINE OF THINKING. IN GENERAL...A NICE DAY ALTHOUGH A BIT COOLER...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT NEAR 50 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY... WHILE SOLUTIONS IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STILL VERY MUCH APART ON HOW TO HANDLE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST ON EASTER SUNDAY...THE UPSHOT FOR CENTRAL NC IS THE SAME...ALTHOUGH FOR DIFFERENT REASONS. FOR NOW...BOTH MODELS KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY ON EASTER UNTIL LATE SUNDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW...HOWEVER THIS IS ENCOURAGING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY EASTER WILL BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM. IF THE FORECAST BUSTS...THE TRIAD AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO GET PRECIPITATION FIRST. GOING WITH THE DRIER FORECAST WILL GO WITH A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN COMING IN SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWS ONLY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BOTH MODELS SHOW BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AFFECTS THE AREA. THE REAL DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS VERY PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND AND IT BRINGS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN PRECIPITATION WITH IT TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE LOW IN THE GFS HANGS BACK OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BECOMES DISCONNECTED FROM THE INITIAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTH AND THE WHOLE SYSTEM MEANDERS AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE LOW FINALLY MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE EC SOLUTION ON THE OTHER HAND HAS CENTRAL NC DRY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH BIG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA GOING INTO MIDWEEK. HAVE HEDGED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC SOLUTION FOR MIDWEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHICH SOLUTION PROVES CORRECT. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 820 AM WEDNESDAY... UNDER BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...MOSTLY AFTER 08Z. OUTLOOK... THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS INCREASES LATE THU AND ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH A RISING RISK OF SHOWERS. CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW... BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS SRN NC WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACKING SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION. -GIH && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 335 AM WEDNESDAY... AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM... AFTER COORDINATION YESTERDAY WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS. DRY AIR WILL HOLD IN PLACE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT 20-25%... AND THIS COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE SW AROUND 15 KT GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AND LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE (STILL JUST 5-6%) WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY. WILL STICK WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HEADLINES IN THE PRESUPPRESSION FORECAST TO COMMUNICATE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER. -GIH/22 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/22 SHORT TERM...ELLIS LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...HARTFIELD/22 FIRE WEATHER...HARTFIELD/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
945 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT SO FAR OBS SITES AND WEB CAMS SHOW NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND. BETTER RETURNS TO THE WEST NORTH OF MINOT...AND PERSONAL WEATHER STATIONS SHOW SOME PRECIP GETTING TO THE GROUND. HRRR HAS ACCUMULATING PRECIP ENTERING THE FAR NORTHWEST AROUND 05Z...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL KEEP THE POPS COMING IN MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER ON TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL THINK WE SHOULD SEE SOME NICE DROPS WITH CLEAR SKIES BEFORE CLOUDS COMING IN FOR THE EAST AND WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING INTO THE NORTHWEST. WILL KEEP OUR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 NO CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON SKIES WERE STILL MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FA WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE. STILL HAVE SOME SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS OVER NORTHWEST MN. GOOD WESTERLY SFC FLOW OVER WESTERN ND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC LOW...WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 50S. THE SFC LOW IS OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY 12 FRI. A BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM THIS LOW WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS UP INTO NORTHWEST MN BY 12Z FRI...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE KDVL REGION INTO NW MN. THIS PCPN WOULD GENERALLY FALL AS SNOW WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY MORNING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD ON FRI...ENDING UP BY 00Z SAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL AGAIN OCCUR ALONG/BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...SO THEY WILL SINK FROM AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO A VALLEY CITY TO FARGO TO KPKD LINE BY 00Z SAT. TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY FRI TO CHANGE THIS PCPN FROM LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PCPN...OVER TO LIGHT RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE EXPECTED PCPN FROM THE EVENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRI (EXCEPTING THE FAR SOUTH AND SE FA)...WHICH WILL THEREFORE LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. COULD BE A LITTLE WINDY ON FRI AFTERNOON AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS TEMPS FALL FRI NIGHT THE PCPN WILL CHANGE BACK TO A MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER IN SAT MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS LOOK COOL ON SAT BUT THEY DO WARM UP A LITTLE MORE BY SUNDAY. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SFC LOW AND A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH SOME INCONSISTENCY ON THIS WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY WILL RETROGRADE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AS SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA AND INTO ONTARIO. SPLIT FLOW WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE GFS WAS A FASTER AND A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS. LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MON THROUGH THU. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 ALL SITES VFR AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING. BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRINGING SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS. SOME SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN AS THE FRONT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS KFAR LATER IN THE DAY. AT THIS POINT MAINLY INCLUDED VCSH MENTION...BUT AT KGFK AND KTVF INCLUDED SOME -SN AND 3-5SM VIS...AS GUIDANCE DROPS VIS PRETTY LOW AS THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS COME THROUGH. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT INDICATED AN OVERALL DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN SWITCH DIRECTIONS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW COULD BECOME STRONG AT TIMES IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...GODON LONG TERM...GODON/HOPPES AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
332 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THURSDAY FOR SOME POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. CURRENTLY...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER. THIS DRY AIR CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...ERODING THE CLOUD COVER FROM EAST TO WEST. THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE REMAINS UNDER SOME STRATUS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. MEANWHILE A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...RAIN...AND SNOW FROM COLORADO TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR INDICATE THE CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES WESTWARD. TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THE CENTRAL PLAINS STORM CENTER MOVES EAST...THEN NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS INTERRUPTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY. THIS SHORT-LIVED DRYING OF THE LOW/MID LAYERS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR A MIX-OUT SURFACE-TO-H800. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS WELL. THUS USED A BLEND OF SHORT TERM AND BCCONSMOS FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER EASTERN MONTANA...WITH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHERN CANADA...AND WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER WYOMING. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT WARM AIR ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE TO RESULT IN CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR A BRIEF HOUR OR TWO POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND INTERSTATE 94 BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE FRIDAY EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON ON FRIDAY...WITH COLD ADVECTION ALREADY TAKING PLACE OVER NORTHERN AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FRIDAY WITH HIGH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND LIGHT RAIN SOUTH. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO 1 INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IN SUMMARY...CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN NORTH CENTRAL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL...BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING A STORM SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT THE LATEST 12Z RUNS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE TREND TOWARD BETTER AGREEMENT. THE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY/TUESDAY...AND EXPANDING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS BEEN BULLISH ON DEVELOPING A LARGE STORM SYSTEM REACHING WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF IS NOW DEPICTING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LOW THAT IN TURN DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN A REASONABLY SIMILAR PLACE IN THE MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 MVFR-IFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT KDIK AND KISN ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT KJMS AND CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON FOR KBIS AND KMOT. NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFT 00Z AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...EXITING EASTERN PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1107 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE MORE SPUNKY AS THEY MOVE INTO A FAVORABLE 45 KT 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR REGION...HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOW TOPS AND LACK OF LIGHTNING...THE HODOGRAPHS IN THIS AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION...BUT SO FAR DO NOT THINK ENOUGH CAPE TO WARRANT ANY RAPID INTENSIFICATION. SOME OF THE GUSTS FROM THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH RANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MAIN FOCUS FOR NEAR TERM FORECAST IS COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. ONLY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS...AND CAPE IS MINIMAL. THE NAM WHICH OFTEN RUNS HIGH ON CAPE IS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 300J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND HAS MOST OF THAT BEHIND THIS FIRST LINE -- CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. DID KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED BUT NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THIS FAR EAST. WITH DECENT FLOW IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS. PWATS POOL UP TO AROUND 1.25IN WITH THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND AS WELL...SO BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. TRIED TO SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND AND THE SECONDARY BAND WITH THE COLD FRONT...PWATS SHOWING THIS AS WELL WITH A QUICK DIP UNDER 1.0IN BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING UNTIL THIS SECONDARY BAND PASSES...BUT WITH THIS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT TIMING IS NOT IDEAL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND LINGERS THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE WISE...HELD TEMPS UP TONIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES USING A CONSENSUS BLEND...AND THE HRRR AS FAR OUT AS POSSIBLE. EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TOMORROW. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE DOMINATING FEATURE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR MOVES IN...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT GETS PUSHED SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN DURING SATURDAY ON SOUTHEAST FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY AFFECT EAST FACING SLOPES OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER NO PRECIP WITH THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SATURDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE SATURDAY...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT OUT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND MILDER NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST PROBLEM COMES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE SUNDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE DIVERGENT ON THE STRENGTH...TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. THE EURO MODEL IS MORE WRAPPED UP AND MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE OPEN AND FASTER. WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOWN BY THE MODELS...THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND FASTER SOLUTION OF THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THUS...USING GFS AS A GUIDE. I HAVE CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY DAYS END. STILL...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY FLOW TO REACH INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN LOW LANDS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE...WITH COOLER...AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GENERATING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. KEPT THINGS MVFR WITH THE PRECIP...BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH MVFR IN LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE/FOG. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT...BECOMING WESTERLY AND NOT AS STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT AND INTO FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CAT MY GO IFR OR LOWER THAN FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 03/25/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...JW/MZ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
752 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAIN FOCUS FOR NEAR TERM FORECAST IS COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. ONLY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS...AND CAPE IS MINIMAL. THE NAM WHICH OFTEN RUNS HIGH ON CAPE IS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 300J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND HAS MOST OF THAT BEHIND THIS FIRST LINE -- CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. DID KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED BUT NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THIS FAR EAST. WITH DECENT FLOW IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS. PWATS POOL UP TO AROUND 1.25IN WITH THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND AS WELL...SO BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. TRIED TO SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND AND THE SECONDARY BAND WITH THE COLD FRONT...PWATS SHOWING THIS AS WELL WITH A QUICK DIP UNDER 1.0IN BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING UNTIL THIS SECONDARY BAND PASSES...BUT WITH THIS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT TIMING IS NOT IDEAL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND LINGERS THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE WISE...HELD TEMPS UP TONIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES USING A CONSENSUS BLEND...AND THE HRRR AS FAR OUT AS POSSIBLE. EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TOMORROW. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE DOMINATING FEATURE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR MOVES IN...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT GETS PUSHED SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN DURING SATURDAY ON SOUTHEAST FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY AFFECT EAST FACING SLOPES OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER NO PRECIP WITH THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SATURDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE SATURDAY...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT OUT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND MILDER NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST PROBLEM COMES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE SUNDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE DIVERGENT ON THE STRENGTH...TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. THE EURO MODEL IS MORE WRAPPED UP AND MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE OPEN AND FASTER. WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOWN BY THE MODELS...THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND FASTER SOLUTION OF THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THUS...USING GFS AS A GUIDE. I HAVE CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY DAYS END. STILL...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY FLOW TO REACH INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN LOW LANDS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE...WITH COOLER...AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GENERATING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...WILL DRIVE TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE WEST. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE SECOND WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. KEPT THINGS MVFR WITH THE PRECIP...BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH MVFR IN LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE/FOG. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT...BECOMING WESTERLY AND NOT AS STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT AND INTO FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CAT MY GO IFR OR LOWER THAN FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 03/25/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H M M M M M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
941 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED DEWPOINTS SOME BASED ON HRRR AND WRFARW. THIS LOWERED DEWPOINTS/RH SOME OVER SW VA SO SENT OUT A FIRE WEATHER DANGER STATEMENT FOR BUCHANAN AND DICKENSON. MODELS SHOW DEWPOINTS COMING UP FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THUS RH VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS REACHES SOUTHEAST OH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS WV THIS AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE SECTION AT THE BOTTOM. WENT CLOSER TO THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY COURTESY OF A POTENT UPPER TROF AND ORGANIZING SURFACE LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL MARCH THRU THURSDAY EVENING WITH SHRA/TSRA INCREASING FROM W TO E AS THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES. IT APPEARS A DECAYING PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CROSS ON THURSDAY WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT LAGGING 3 TO 6 HR BEHIND...WAITING UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING TO CROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOSE DIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG CAA SETS ON GUSTY W WINDS. SCT SHRA OVER SE OH AND N WV WILL TRANSITION TO SHSN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY 12Z FRIDAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN CAA BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL MEAN AN ABUNDANCE OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER W ZONES. WAA QUICKLY SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW ALOFT...KEEPING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO CRACK 70 E OF THE OH RIVER WITH 60S OVER SE OH. ONCE THE FRONT BLOWS THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN THRU THE 30S. WITH THE EXPECTED STRATOCU AROUND ON FRIDAY...HEDGED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. WAA ALOFT SETTING UP FRIDAY NIGHT MEANS A RISE IN TEMPS ON THE HIGH RIDGETOPS WITH EVERYONE ELSE DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE COOL FRIDAY WILL BE BUT A MEMORY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SYSTEM NOW BACK IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY...BUT DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRI NT FOR A FROSTY SAT MORNING...BUT A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY SUNDAY NT...AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING AWAY MON AND MON NT...BUT IN DIFFERENT WAYS...THE GFS WITH A MUCH FARTHER S TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. EITHER WAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON TUE. PREVIOUS LOWS LOOKED GOOD IN RELATION TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR A FROSTY SAT MORNING. BLENDED IN THE SUPERBLEND AND NATIONAL BLEND FOR LOWS SAT NT...STILL FOR NOT MUCH CHANGE. RAISED LOWS A BIT SUNDAY NT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH...VIA BLENDING IN THE GFS AND NATIONAL BLEND...WITH COLD ADVECTION COMMENCING LATE. LOWS MON NT LOOKED GOOD. THE RAIN SHOWERS MAY END AS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS EARLY TUE MORNING UNLESS DRY AIR WINS THE RACE VS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. USED THE SUPER BLEND FOR LOWS DAY 7 NT. FOR THE MOST PART...BLENDED IN THE SUPER BLEND FOR HIGHS...TAKING VALUES UP...ESPECIALLY SAT...WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME WELL MIXED IN RETURN S FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AMPLE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE OH VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS OR STORMS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WINDS COULD GUST A LITTLE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND IN SHOWERS AND STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... ANOTHER DRY DAY...WITH DRY FUEL MOISTURE AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY POSE A THREAT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL INCREASE UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL PROVIDING LOW RH. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL NEED AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER DANGER STATEMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN/THUNDER BY LATE WEEK WILL ABATE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...ARJ FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .UPDATE... UPDATED TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/WIND/PRECIP FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .DISCUSSION... EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AS THE DRYLINE QUICKLY MIXES TO THE EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE IS EVEN DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...SO OPTED TO DROP DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THESE DEWPOINTS MAY NEED BE DROPPED EVEN FURTHER DUE TO DEEP MIXING THAT IS NOT HANDLED WELL BY MODELS. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO INCREASED BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. CONSEQUENTLY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE EVEN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 4-5 PM. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 55-65 KNOTS WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. MAHALE && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/ DISCUSSION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION... STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLOWING DUST COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT SOME TAF SITES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCTION TO BELOW ONE MILE BUT DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF THIS LOW IN TAFS FOR NOW. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/ DISCUSSION... 12Z AVIATION FORECAST. AVIATION... THERE IS PATCHY STRATUS AFFECTING KOKC.. KOUN AND KLAW THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING... BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH BLOWING DUST THANKS TO THE STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE... THE STRONG WINDS THEMSELVES AND WIND SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE TODAY AND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/ DISCUSSION... WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HIGH TODAY. DRYLINE IS MIXING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINT DROPPING 6 DEGREES AT CANADIAN TEXAS IN THE LAST HOUR. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA SOON WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY. AS USUAL... NAM DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WAY TOO HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TRENDED STRONGLY TO THE MUCH DRIER ECMWF... RAP AND HRRR SOLUTIONS IN THE DEWPOINT GRIDS. THESE DEWPOINT FORECASTS BRING THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. PLACEMENT OF THE RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL KEEP THAT GEOGRAPHY AS IS WITH THIS PACKAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL COMPLICATE ANY FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS ON ANY WILDFIRES THAT DEVELOP. WIND WILL ALSO BE A BIG ISSUE...EVEN MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY. WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE DRY AIR... WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AND WILL UPGRADE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL KEEP THAT IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS AND/OR TIMES THAT THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT. THE WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW... BUT WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY VALID UNTIL 12Z FOR THE TIME BEING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 38 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 HOBART OK 77 37 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 84 41 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 69 30 60 34 / 10 10 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 78 35 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 DURANT OK 80 43 61 39 / 30 30 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>019- 021>024-033>038. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>042- 044>046-050. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>019-021>024-033>038. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ020-025>032-039>048- 050>052. TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>085-087. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ086-088>090. && $$ 10/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .DISCUSSION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLOWING DUST COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT SOME TAF SITES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCTION TO BELOW ONE MILE BUT DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF THIS LOW IN TAFS FOR NOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/ DISCUSSION... 12Z AVIATION FORECAST. AVIATION... THERE IS PATCHY STRATUS AFFECTING KOKC.. KOUN AND KLAW THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING... BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH BLOWING DUST THANKS TO THE STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE... THE STRONG WINDS THEMSELVES AND WIND SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE TODAY AND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/ DISCUSSION... WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HIGH TODAY. DRYLINE IS MIXING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINT DROPPING 6 DEGREES AT CANADIAN TEXAS IN THE LAST HOUR. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA SOON WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY. AS USUAL... NAM DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WAY TOO HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TRENDED STRONGLY TO THE MUCH DRIER ECMWF... RAP AND HRRR SOLUTIONS IN THE DEWPOINT GRIDS. THESE DEWPOINT FORECASTS BRING THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. PLACEMENT OF THE RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL KEEP THAT GEOGRAPHY AS IS WITH THIS PACKAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL COMPLICATE ANY FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS ON ANY WILDFIRES THAT DEVELOP. WIND WILL ALSO BE A BIG ISSUE...EVEN MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY. WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE DRY AIR... WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AND WILL UPGRADE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL KEEP THAT IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS AND/OR TIMES THAT THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT. THE WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW... BUT WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY VALID UNTIL 12Z FOR THE TIME BEING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 38 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 HOBART OK 77 37 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 84 41 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 69 30 60 34 / 10 10 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 78 35 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 DURANT OK 80 43 61 39 / 20 20 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>019- 021>024-033>038. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>042- 044>046-050. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>019-021>024-033>038. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ020-025>032-039>048- 050>052. TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>085-087. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ086-088>090. && $$ 10/25/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
744 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .DISCUSSION... 12Z AVIATION FORECAST. && .AVIATION... THERE IS PATCHY STRATUS AFFECTING KOKC.. KOUN AND KLAW THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING... BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH BLOWING DUST THANKS TO THE STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE... THE STRONG WINDS THEMSELVES AND WIND SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE TODAY AND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/ DISCUSSION... WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HIGH TODAY. DRYLINE IS MIXING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINT DROPPING 6 DEGREES AT CANADIAN TEXAS IN THE LAST HOUR. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA SOON WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY. AS USUAL... NAM DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WAY TOO HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TRENDED STRONGLY TO THE MUCH DRIER ECMWF... RAP AND HRRR SOLUTIONS IN THE DEWPOINT GRIDS. THESE DEWPOINT FORECASTS BRING THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. PLACEMENT OF THE RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL KEEP THAT GEOGRAPHY AS IS WITH THIS PACKAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL COMPLICATE ANY FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS ON ANY WILDFIRES THAT DEVELOP. WIND WILL ALSO BE A BIG ISSUE...EVEN MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY. WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE DRY AIR... WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AND WILL UPGRADE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL KEEP THAT IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS AND/OR TIMES THAT THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT. THE WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW... BUT WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY VALID UNTIL 12Z FOR THE TIME BEING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 38 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 HOBART OK 77 37 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 84 41 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 69 30 60 34 / 10 10 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 78 35 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 DURANT OK 80 43 61 39 / 20 20 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>019-021>024-033>038. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>042-044>046-050. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ004>019- 021>024-033>038. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>019-021>024-033>038. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ020-025>032-039>048- 050>052. TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>085-087. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>085-087. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ086-088>090. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
430 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .DISCUSSION... WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HIGH TODAY. DRYLINE IS MIXING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINT DROPPING 6 DEGREES AT CANADIAN TEXAS IN THE LAST HOUR. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA SOON WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY. AS USUAL... NAM DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WAY TOO HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TRENDED STRONGLY TO THE MUCH DRIER ECMWF... RAP AND HRRR SOLUTIONS IN THE DEWPOINT GRIDS. THESE DEWPOINT FORECASTS BRING THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. PLACEMENT OF THE RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL KEEP THAT GEOGRAPHY AS IS WITH THIS PACKAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL COMPLICATE ANY FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS ON ANY WILDFIRES THAT DEVELOP. WIND WILL ALSO BE A BIG ISSUE...EVEN MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY. WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE DRY AIR... WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AND WILL UPGRADE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL KEEP THAT IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS AND/OR TIMES THAT THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT. THE WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW... BUT WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY VALID UNTIL 12Z FOR THE TIME BEING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 38 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 HOBART OK 77 37 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 84 41 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 69 30 60 34 / 10 10 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 78 35 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 DURANT OK 80 43 61 39 / 20 20 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>019-021>024-033>038. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>042-044>046-050. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ004>019- 021>024-033>038. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>019-021>024-033>038. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ020-025>032-039>048- 050>052. TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>085-087. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>085-087. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ086-088>090. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1012 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE STATE...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM NRN MD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL PA IN THE MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW...AND WLY FLOW ALOFT. STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST FROM NEAR CYXU...TO KIAG AND KSYR WITH BKN-OVC AND MUCH LOWER CIGS WELL NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY MOVES TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING NW TO NORTHERLY LLVL AGEOS FLOW NUDGE THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE NY/PA BORDER BY TONIGHT...,KEEPING LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA OVER MY FAR NORTHERN TIER. VERTICAL MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 4-5 KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON /AND SIMILAR TO TUESDAY/ WILL BRING WSW WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE BALMY UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... MAINLY CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN. LOWS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BUT COULD STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER INVOF OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ IN EXCESS OF 50KTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. CHC FOR SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A TSRA OR TWO/ RAMPS UP QUICKLY VERY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UVVEL BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF AN APPROACHING 110 KT UPPER JET AND WITHIN THE AXIS OF +2-3 SIGMA PWATS. ANY TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AOA DUSK THURSDAY...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/JG OF SFC BASED CAPE MOVES OVER THE MTNS OF WRN PENN...THEN STRUGGLES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE NRN TIER...AND U60S TO L70S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE VERY MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEEKEND STILL APPEARS IN STORE FOR EASTER WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT REACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 25/12Z. RAIN WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING YESTERDAY...AND STILL FAVORING A MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION IN HANDLING THE DISTINCT -- BUT NARROWING -- MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER/NORTHERN GFS/GEFS CAMP AND SLOWER/SOUTHWEST EC/ECENS. FROM WPC PMDHMD...THE FRONTAL TIMING AND SFC LOW SPEED/TRACK DIFFERENCES APPEAR TIED TO SOME NORTHERN STEAM SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION USED AGAIN TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES STILL RESULTS IN MAX POPS IN THE 00-12Z FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 24HR RAIN TOTALS ENDING 12Z FRI RANGE FROM 0.50-1.00 INCH OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE AREA TO 0.25-0.50 INCHES TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. SOME SEASONABLY COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT VIA GUSTY NW FLOW ON FRIDAY...WITH PCPN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NW MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE INTERIOR MID ATLC/NORTHEAST STATES FRI NGT/SATURDAY BEFORE TAKING UP RESIDENCE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING MILDER RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SPELL A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER WEEKEND. THE FASTER GFS CAMP STILL WANTS TO END EASTER WEEKEND ON A WET NOTE...RETURNING PCPN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE ECMWF. THAT SAID...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND STAYS DRY. LITTLE CHANGE HERE AGAIN TO PREVIOUS THINKING TOWARD A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH TO PCPN CHANCES INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULDS SLIP INTO THE NW MTNS ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AT KBFD. BREEZY CONDS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WITH SFC WNDS G25 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT MANY AIRFIELDS THIS AFTERNOON. CIG RESTRICTIONS BEGIN TO WORK INTO NW MTNS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THU ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY THU...WITH SOME THUNDER POSS LATE THU AFT IN THE WEST. LLWS LIKELY THU NIGHT WITH FROPA. OUTLOOK... TONIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NW MTNS...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY NW HALF...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS ELSEWHERE. SOME THUNDER POSS WEST LATE THU. BECOMING BREEZY WITH LLWS POSS THU NIGHT. FRI...SHOWERS DIMINISHING. RESTRICTIONS EARLY THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS SE. RESTRICTIONS PERSIST NW. SAT...VFR. SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WEST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
742 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE STATE...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST FROM NEAR CYXU...TO KIAG AND KSYR. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SHIELD OF ALTOCU AND ALTOSTRATUS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN TODAY...WHILE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS AND SCT-BKN ALTO CU DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. 08Z HRRR AND THE REST OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND 03Z SREF ALL SHOW JUST A VERY LOW PROB OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO BRUSHING THE AREA NORTH OF RT 6 TODAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY. THE WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING NW TO NORTHERLY LLVL AGEOS FLOW WILL HELP TO NUDGE THE VERY SHALLOW BUT SHARP BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL /OR MORE LIKELY NRN/ PENN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERTICAL MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 4-5 KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON /AND SIMILAR TO TUESDAY/ WILL BRING WSW WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE BALMY UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... MAINLY CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN. LOWS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BUT COULD STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER INVOF OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ IN EXCESS OF 50KTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. CHC FOR SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A TSRA OR TWO/ RAMPS UP QUICKLY VERY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UVVEL BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF AN APPROACHING 110 KT UPPER JET AND WITHIN THE AXIS OF +2-3 SIGMA PWATS. ANY TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AOA DUSK THURSDAY...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/JG OF SFC BASED CAPE MOVES OVER THE MTNS OF WRN PENN...THEN STRUGGLES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE NRN TIER...AND U60S TO L70S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE VERY MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEEKEND STILL APPEARS IN STORE FOR EASTER WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT REACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 25/12Z. RAIN WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING YESTERDAY...AND STILL FAVORING A MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION IN HANDLING THE DISTINCT -- BUT NARROWING -- MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER/NORTHERN GFS/GEFS CAMP AND SLOWER/SOUTHWEST EC/ECENS. FROM WPC PMDHMD...THE FRONTAL TIMING AND SFC LOW SPEED/TRACK DIFFERENCES APPEAR TIED TO SOME NORTHERN STEAM SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION USED AGAIN TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES STILL RESULTS IN MAX POPS IN THE 00-12Z FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 24HR RAIN TOTALS ENDING 12Z FRI RANGE FROM 0.50-1.00 INCH OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE AREA TO 0.25-0.50 INCHES TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. SOME SEASONABLY COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT VIA GUSTY NW FLOW ON FRIDAY...WITH PCPN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NW MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE INTERIOR MID ATLC/NORTHEAST STATES FRI NGT/SATURDAY BEFORE TAKING UP RESIDENCE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING MILDER RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SPELL A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER WEEKEND. THE FASTER GFS CAMP STILL WANTS TO END EASTER WEEKEND ON A WET NOTE...RETURNING PCPN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE ECMWF. THAT SAID...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND STAYS DRY. LITTLE CHANGE HERE AGAIN TO PREVIOUS THINKING TOWARD A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH TO PCPN CHANCES INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CORE OF WESTERLY 35-50KT LLJET CREATING AREAS OF LLWS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY TODAY. SURFACE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST /ESP HIGHER ELEVATIONS/ WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ESP FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AT KBFD-KJST. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULDS SLIP INTO THE NW MTNS ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AT KBFD. CIG RESTRICTIONS BEGIN TO WORK INTO NW MTNS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THU ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY THU...WITH SOME THUNDER POSS LATE THU AFT IN THE WEST. LLWS LIKELY THU NIGHT WITH FROPA. OUTLOOK... TONIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NW MTNS...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY NW HALF...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS ELSEWHERE. SOME THUNDER POSS WEST LATE THU. BECOMING BREEZY WITH LLWS POSS THU NIGHT. FRI...SHOWERS DIMINISHING. RESTRICTIONS EARLY THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS SE. RESTRICTIONS PERSIST NW. SAT...VFR. SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WEST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
527 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE STATE...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST FROM NEAR CYXU...TO KIAG AND KSYR. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SHIELD OF ALTOCU AND ALTOSTRATUS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN TODAY...WHILE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS AND SCT-BKN ALTO CU DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. 08Z HRRR AND THE REST OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND 03Z SREF ALL SHOW JUST A VERY LOW PROB OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO BRUSHING THE AREA NORTH OF RT 6 TODAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY. THE WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING NW TO NORTHERLY LLVL AGEOS FLOW WILL HELP TO NUDGE THE VERY SHALLOW BUT SHARP BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL /OR MORE LIKELY NRN/ PENN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERTICAL MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 4-5 KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON /AND SIMILAR TO TUESDAY/ WILL BRING WSW WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE BALMY UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... MAINLY CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN. LOWS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BUT COULD STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER INVOF OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ IN EXCESS OF 50KTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. CHC FOR SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A TSRA OR TWO/ RAMPS UP QUICKLY VERY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UVVEL BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF AN APPROACHING 110 KT UPPER JET AND WITHIN THE AXIS OF +2-3 SIGMA PWATS. ANY TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AOA DUSK THURSDAY...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/JG OF SFC BASED CAPE MOVES OVER THE MTNS OF WRN PENN...THEN STRUGGLES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE NRN TIER...AND U60S TO L70S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE VERY MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEEKEND STILL APPEARS IN STORE FOR EASTER WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT REACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 25/12Z. RAIN WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING YESTERDAY...AND STILL FAVORING A MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION IN HANDLING THE DISTINCT -- BUT NARROWING -- MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER/NORTHERN GFS/GEFS CAMP AND SLOWER/SOUTHWEST EC/ECENS. FROM WPC PMDHMD...THE FRONTAL TIMING AND SFC LOW SPEED/TRACK DIFFERENCES APPEAR TIED TO SOME NORTHERN STEAM SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION USED AGAIN TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES STILL RESULTS IN MAX POPS IN THE 00-12Z FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 24HR RAIN TOTALS ENDING 12Z FRI RANGE FROM 0.50-1.00 INCH OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE AREA TO 0.25-0.50 INCHES TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. SOME SEASONABLY COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT VIA GUSTY NW FLOW ON FRIDAY...WITH PCPN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NW MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE INTERIOR MID ATLC/NORTHEAST STATES FRI NGT/SATURDAY BEFORE TAKING UP RESIDENCE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING MILDER RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SPELL A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER WEEKEND. THE FASTER GFS CAMP STILL WANTS TO END EASTER WEEKEND ON A WET NOTE...RETURNING PCPN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE ECMWF. THAT SAID...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND STAYS DRY. LITTLE CHANGE HERE AGAIN TO PREVIOUS THINKING TOWARD A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH TO PCPN CHANCES INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WITH LLWS ONGOING AS 850MB FLOW REMAINS BETWEEN 40-50KTS. SURFACE WINDS A BIT TRICKIER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER MOST CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCALES /WHERE ATMOSPHERE HAS DECOUPLED/...AND SPEEDS HOLDING AROUND 5-10 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS...THOUGH WESTERN RIDGETOPS POKING INTO THE LLJET WILL HAVE HIGHER WINDS - WITH KJST GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CIG RESTRICTIONS BEGIN TO WORK INTO NW MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESP TONIGHT INTO THU ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY THU...WITH A LITTLE THUNDER POSS LATE THU AFT IN THE WEST. OUTLOOK... TONIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NW MTNS...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY NW HALF...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS ELSEWHERE. SOME THUNDER POSS WEST LATE THU. BECOMING BREEZY WITH LLWS POSS THU NIGHT. FRI...SHOWERS DIMINISHING. RESTRICTIONS EARLY THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS SE. RESTRICTIONS PERSIST NW. SAT...VFR. SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WEST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
458 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE STATE...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED EAST/WEST FROM NEAR CYXU...TO KIAG AND KSYR. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SHIELD OF ALTOCU AND ALTOSTRATUS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN TODAY...WHILE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS AND SCT-BKN ALTO CU DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. 05Z HRRR AND THE REST OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND 21Z SREF ALL SHOW JUST A VERY LOW PROB OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO BRUSHING THE AREA NORTH OF RT 6 TODAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY. THE WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING NW TO NORTHERLY LLVL AGEOS FLOW WILL HELP TO NUDGE THE VERY SHALLOW BUT SHARP BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL /OR MORE LIKELY NRN/ PENN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERTICAL MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 4-5 KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON /AND SIMILAR TO TUESDAY/ WILL BRING WSW WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE BALMY UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... MAINLY CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN. LOWS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BUT COULD STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER INVOF OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ IN EXCESS OF 50KTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. CHC FOR SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A TSRA OR TWO/ RAMPS UP QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UVVEL BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF AN APPROACHING 110 KT UPPER JET AND WITHIN THE AXIS OF +2-3 SIGMA PWATS. ANY TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AOA DUSK THURSDAY...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/JG OF SFC BASED CAPE MOVES OVER THE MTNS OF WRN PENN...THEN STRUGGLES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE NRN TIER...AND U60S TO L70S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE VERY MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEEKEND STILL APPEARS IN STORE FOR EASTER WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT REACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 25/12Z. RAIN WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING YESTERDAY...AND STILL FAVORING A MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION IN HANDLING THE DISTINCT -- BUT NARROWING -- MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER/NORTHERN GFS/GEFS CAMP AND SLOWER/SOUTHWEST EC/ECENS. FROM WPC PMDHMD...THE FRONTAL TIMING AND SFC LOW SPEED/TRACK DIFFERENCES APPEAR TIED TO SOME NORTHERN STEAM SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION USED AGAIN TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES STILL RESULTS IN MAX POPS IN THE 00-12Z FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 24HR RAIN TOTALS ENDING 12Z FRI RANGE FROM 0.50-1.00 INCH OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE AREA TO 0.25-0.50 INCHES TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. SOME SEASONABLY COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT VIA GUSTY NW FLOW ON FRIDAY...WITH PCPN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NW MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE INTERIOR MID ATLC/NORTHEAST STATES FRI NGT/SATURDAY BEFORE TAKING UP RESIDENCE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING MILDER RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SPELL A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER WEEKEND. THE FASTER GFS CAMP STILL WANTS TO END EASTER WEEKEND ON A WET NOTE...RETURNING PCPN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE ECMWF. THAT SAID...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND STAYS DRY. LITTLE CHANGE HERE AGAIN TO PREVIOUS THINKING TOWARD A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH TO PCPN CHANCES INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WITH LLWS ONGOING AS 850MB FLOW REMAINS BETWEEN 40-50KTS. SURFACE WINDS A BIT TRICKIER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER MOST CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCALES /WHERE ATMOSPHERE HAS DECOUPLED/...AND SPEEDS HOLDING AROUND 5-10 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS...THOUGH WESTERN RIDGETOPS POKING INTO THE LLJET WILL HAVE HIGHER WINDS - WITH KJST GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CIG RESTRICTIONS BEGIN TO WORK INTO NW MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESP TONIGHT INTO THU ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY THU...WITH A LITTLE THUNDER POSS LATE THU AFT IN THE WEST. OUTLOOK... TONIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NW MTNS...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY NW HALF...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS ELSEWHERE. SOME THUNDER POSS WEST LATE THU. BECOMING BREEZY WITH LLWS POSS THU NIGHT. FRI...SHOWERS DIMINISHING. RESTRICTIONS EARLY THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS SE. RESTRICTIONS PERSIST NW. SAT...VFR. SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WEST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
321 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE STATE...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED EAST/WEST FROM NEAR CYXU...TO KIAG AND KSYR. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SHIELD OF ALTOCU AND ALTOSTRATUS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN TODAY...WHILE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS AND SCT-BKN ALTO CU DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. 05Z HRRR AND THE REST OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND 21Z SREF ALL SHOW JUST A VERY LOW PROB OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO BRUSHING THE AREA NORTH OF RT 6 TODAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY. THE WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING NW TO NORTHERLY LLVL AGEOS FLOW WILL HELP TO NUDGE THE VERY SHALLOW BUT SHARP BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL /OR MORE LIKELY NRN/ PENN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERTICAL MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 4-5 KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON /AND SIMILAR TO TUESDAY/ WILL BRING WSW WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE BALMY UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... MAINLY CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN. LOWS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BUT COULD STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER INVOF OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ IN EXCESS OF 50KTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. CHC FOR SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A TSRA OR TWO/ RAMPS UP QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UVVEL BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF AN APPROACHING 110 KT UPPER JET AND WITHIN THE AXIS OF +2-3 SIGMA PWATS. ANY TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AOA DUSK THURSDAY...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/JG OF SFC BASED CAPE MOVES OVER THE MTNS OF WRN PENN...THEN STRUGGLES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE NRN TIER...AND U60S TO L70S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE VERY MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEEKEND STILL APPEARS IN STORE FOR EASTER WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT REACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 25/12Z. RAIN WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING YESTERDAY...AND STILL FAVORING A MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION IN HANDLING THE DISTINCT -- BUT NARROWING -- MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER/NORTHERN GFS/GEFS CAMP AND SLOWER/SOUTHWEST EC/ECENS. FROM WPC PMDHMD...THE FRONTAL TIMING AND SFC LOW SPEED/TRACK DIFFERENCES APPEAR TIED TO SOME NORTHERN STEAM SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION USED AGAIN TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES STILL RESULTS IN MAX POPS IN THE 00-12Z FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 24HR RAIN TOTALS ENDING 12Z FRI RANGE FROM 0.50-1.00 INCH OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE AREA TO 0.25-0.50 INCHES TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. SOME SEASONABLY COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT VIA GUSTY NW FLOW ON FRIDAY...WITH PCPN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NW MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE INTERIOR MID ATLC/NORTHEAST STATES FRI NGT/SATURDAY BEFORE TAKING UP RESIDENCE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING MILDER RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SPELL A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER WEEKEND. THE FASTER GFS CAMP STILL WANTS TO END EASTER WEEKEND ON A WET NOTE...RETURNING PCPN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE ECMWF. THAT SAID...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND STAYS DRY. LITTLE CHANGE HERE AGAIN TO PREVIOUS THINKING TOWARD A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH TO PCPN CHANCES INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FAST SWRLY FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WITH LLWS LIKELY AS 850MB FLOW REMAINS BETWEEN 40-50KTS. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALSO HOLD AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT...ESP NW HALF AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THERE WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ALONG THE NY BORDER AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE GLAKES...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT. CIG RESTRICTIONS BEGIN TO WORK INTO NW MTNS WED NIGHT INTO THU ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LATE WEEK STORM. SHOWERS LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY THU...WITH A LITTLE THUNDER POSS. OUTLOOK... WED...MVFR AND SCT -SHRA POSS NW. OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR. WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...SHRA AND RESTRICTIONS LIKELY NW HALF...MAINLY VFR SE. SOME THUNDER POSS THU. LLWS POSS THU NIGHT. FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSS EARLY. THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SAT...VFR. SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NW HALF OF AIRSPACE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH ANOTHER MOIST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM...A VIGOROUS COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY THRU TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON ALONG THE EAST COAST. INCREASING SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARMING TREND...SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE IN THE WEST. SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS STREAMING THRU. SWLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SW NC AND NE GA MTNS LATER THIS AFTN. TO THE EAST...DEWPTS WILL ONCE AGAIN MIX OUT INTO THE 20S TO LWR 30S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN FIRE WX CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S IN THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID 70S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. EXPECT ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THRU 12Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THU MORNING WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING DEEPER FORCING AND MOISTURE EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THU EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THU...WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING LIKELY CENTERED AROUND THU EVENING AS UPPER JET DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES...AND A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SURVIVE INTO THE AREA BY THU EVENING. SURFACE TO 3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KT MAY BE COINCIDENT WITH A NARROW ZONE OF PRE/FRONTAL SBCAPE RUNNING SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. A QLCS MODE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. DRYING IS EXPECTED WITH FROPA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT. DESPITE THE FROPA...MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RISE ABOVE CLIMO ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM SOURCE REGION OF THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY FALL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND THEN TOWARD THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER PA ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS NOW SLOWER AND DEEPER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE 850 MB FRONT ORPHANED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY MAY EXPERIENCE SOME UPGLIDE ACTIVATION BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAISE THE PROSPECT OF IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING REMAINS LOW...BUT WILL STEADILY INCREASE RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF NOW BRINGS THE COLD FROPA THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND BRINGS A STRONGER WAVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS BETTER SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES AND WILL BE FOLLOWED. ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD OF ANY BETTER UPGLIDE...DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE RAP AND NAM ARE IN LINE WITH TRENDS ON THE KGSP VAD WIND PROFILE IN SHOWING A 40+ KT SWLY JET AROUND 1500-2000 FT AGL ACRS THE AREA. THE UPSTATE TAFS SEEM TO BE MIXING ENUF OF THE WINDS...BUT THE NC SITES MAY HAVE SOME LLWS THRU DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. ONCE MIXING DEEPENS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET...EXPECT SW WINDS AROUND 10-12 KT AND GUSTS IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SKC AND P6SM THRU THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...AND CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND DOMINATE THE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION && .FIRE WEATHER... A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ATOP THE AREA TODAY...BETWEEN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOME GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER NE GA AND EXTREME WESTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY GUSTIER THAN YESTERDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE CRITERIA FOR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR BOTH SC AND GA (GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH)...WHILE RH DIPS INTO THE 20-30 PCT RANGE. THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER HEADLINE FOR ALL OUR NC ZONES STILL LOOKS GOOD. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT RECOVERY...AND SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510. FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ051-058-059- 062-063. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HG NEAR TERM...ARK SHORT TERM...HG LONG TERM...HG AVIATION...ARK FIRE WEATHER...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WARMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER MOIST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 130 AM...THE TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AGAIN TO MATCH UP WITH LATEST OBS TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT 30S IN THE COOLER MTN VALLEYS. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW ATOP THE CWFA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACRS THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY WARMER MAX TEMPS TODAY...LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S PIEDMONT. DESPITE RETURN FLOW BRINGING DEWPTS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY...FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED BY THE WARM TEMPS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 225 PM...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN OPENS UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BUILD A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE LOW. THE WAVES ROTATE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE CROSSING THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JETLET. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A BAND OF INSTABILITY AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET HELPS CREATE QUITE A BIT OF BULK SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY. THEREFORE...WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION LIKELY FIRING TO THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE FOR QLCS STORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR THURSDAY EVENING. OF COURSE...THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND I-77 CORRIDOR EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE CLEAR COMPLETELY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY FALL TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...STARTING TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...IN THAT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS STARTS TO DEVELOP ISENTROPIC LIFT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT DOES NOT BECOME PRODUCTIVE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS STILL A DAY SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND HAS MOST OF SUNDAY DRY. THE FCST REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE AND DEVELOPS LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY EXPANDS IT OUTWARD FROM THERE DURING THE DAY...PER THE WPC GUIDANCE. THE TRICKY PART WILL BE THE TEMPS...WHICH FOR NOW REMAIN ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAINLY IN DEFERENCE TO THE MOSTLY DRY ECMWF. IF WE HAVE LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT BY AFTERNOON E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME KIND OF WEAK IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE THAT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN FCST. THE MODELS EVENTUALLY COME MORE INTO LINE WITH DEVELOPING PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH NOW TO RAISE THE PRECIP PROB INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY MIDDAY. THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO FORCING AND MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. SO... TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. DID NOT FOLLOW THE GFS WHICH WOULD KEEP A MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPS WERE KEPT NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE RAP AND NAM ARE IN LINE WITH TRENDS ON THE KGSP VAD WIND PROFILE IN SHOWING A 40+ KT SWLY JET AROUND 1500-2000 FT AGL ACRS THE AREA. THE UPSTATE TAFS SEEM TO BE MIXING ENUF OF THE WINDS...BUT THE NC SITES MAY HAVE SOME LLWS THRU DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. ONCE MIXING DEEPENS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET...EXPECT SW WINDS AROUND 10-12 KT AND GUSTS IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SKC AND P6SM THRU THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...AND CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND DOMINATE THE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION && .FIRE WEATHER... A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION...BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN THOSE TUESDAY. WITH EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS...THE FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT AND CAUSING RH TO REACH CRITICALLY LOW VALUES OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NC. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS...THOUGH WINDS AND GUSTS ARE STILL INSUFFICIENT TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. IN COORDINATION WITH STATE AND FEDERAL LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS BEING ISSUED FOR NC TO HIGHLIGHT ELEVATED RISK. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL ACROSS OUR SC AND GA ZONES...AND LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES THERE HAVE NOT REQUESTED STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...TONIGHT/S FORECAST SHIFTS WILL RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION AND COULD POTENTIALLY ISSUE A STATEMENT. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510. FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ051-058-059- 062-063. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SBK NEAR TERM...ARK/NED/WIMBERLEY SHORT TERM...RWH LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...ARK FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
741 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 737 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2016 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTED A FAIRLY POTENT PV ANOMALY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS FOR LATE TNGT AND FRIDAY OVER THE NRN BLKHLS AND NWRN-WCNTRL SD AREA AS THE VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT OVER WRN SD AND KEEP PRECIP FOCUSED OVER THESE AREAS. THE RAIN-SNOW TRANSITION IS GOING TO BE TRICKY...BUT IF THE PRECIP IS HEAVY ENOUGH THERE COULD BE DYNAMIC COOLING THAT WOULD BOOST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IN THE END THIS APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH FOR A WINTER WX ADVY FOR THE NRN BLKHLS INTO NWRN-WCNTRL SD FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2016 STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIVE SE AND AND SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION IN THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF PAC MOISTURE INITIALLY WITH THE FGEN AREA OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH MOST OF THE FA...STALLING OVER CENTRAL SD AS THE WAVE PIVOTS. WARM PROFILES WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ESP ON THE PLAINS AND OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS. INITIAL N-S FGEN RESPONSE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SUPPORTING GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AS THE INITIAL FGEN RESPONSE SHIFTS EAST...MOIST LL UPSLOPE FLOW WITH PROFILES WARMER THAN -10C MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE. OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN HILLS...AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NE WY /KGCC-KW43/ THROUGH 12Z FRI. MAIN AREA OF LL FGEN WILL SHIFT EAST SLOWLY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...STALLING AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS SUPPORTS TEMP WAVE CLOSING OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS NW SD INTO CENTRAL SD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE BH NE TO AROUND FAITH DEPENDING ON HOW FAST CAA ARRIVES AND THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF CAA. HAVE SIDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEDIAN FOR SNOW TOTALS THERE...WITH CAA EXPECTED TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE. FURTHER WEST ACROSS NE WY AND BLACK HILLS...A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN THE SYSTEM COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES SUPPORTING INCREASING INSTABILITY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE BY MID AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE FIGHTING INCREASING SUN ANGLE ESP ON ROADS. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR ADVECTING SE INTO THE FA...WHICH WOULD HIGHLY LIMIT QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS. GENERALLY EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES ON THE PLAINS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HILLS FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING. HENCE WILL DEFER ANY HEADLINES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN HILLS GIVEN THE LULL IN SNOWFALL FRI MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL A VERY TRICKY FORECAST GIVEN MIXED PRECIP /DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT/AND LATE MARCH INSOLATION. FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY. LINGERING PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT...NW TO SE ACROSS THE FA. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2016 NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE SATURDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MILDER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY MONDAY. AS RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN STATES. DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWEST SD LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF AND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING SO THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 450 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2016 A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. RAIN/SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVNG ACROSS NERN WY AND SPREAD INTO THE BLKHLS AND NWRN SD BY 06Z...AND ACROSS THE REST OF WRN SD AROUND 12Z. THIS WILL PRODUCE ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THE RAIN/SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NERN WY AND NWRN/WCNTRL SD BY 18Z FRIDAY... WITH CORRESPONDING IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALSO WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER NERN WY...THE NRN BLKHLS...AND NWRN SD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVNG. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SDZ024-028. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-025-072-073. WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WYZ057. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WYZ071. && $$ UPDATE...BUNKERS SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...BUNKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
347 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .DISCUSSION... FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE UPDATE ISSUED AROUND MIDDAY AND HAVE APPENDED THE UPDATE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR REFERENCE. BOTH THE RED FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TROUGH 7 PM CDT EVEN THOUGH MANY SITES ARE NOT CONSISTENTLY MEETING CRITERIA. THE THREAT FOR FIRES AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE CONTINUE TO TRACK THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE...VISIBLE ON AREA RADARS...WHICH AT 3 PM WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM OKLAHOMA CITY TO GRAHAM TO FORT STOCKTON. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM OLNEY/GRAHAM TO ABILENE BUT THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT TO THESE CLOUDS AND NO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACARS SOUNDINGS AT KDFW AIRPORT INDICATE THE CAP HAS WEAKENED BUT IS STILL IN PLACE. HOWEVER...BY 22-23Z...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND RAPIDLY INCREASES THE INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS IF THE CAP CAN BE WEAKENED/ERODED. THE COLD FRONT CAN ALSO BE TRACKED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA RADARS SWEEPING DOWN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AS THE FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE IN OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT/DRYLINE INTERACTION AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE. AT FIRST...THESE STORMS MAY FORM A BROKEN LINE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A MORE SOLID LINE AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING...THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE AREA LEAVING COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. FOR THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATER...INITIAL THREATS WILL ALSO BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...AS THE STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE...THE MAIN THREAT MAY BECOME DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A LOWER THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THE SHEAR VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER THAN THAT WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. BROAD TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE BUT WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SURFACE TO H700 AND A RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE PLEASANT...SUNNY...AND DRY BUT IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN SOME AREAS WITH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT BUT THE LATEST TRACK HAS IT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE INSTABILITY AND TIMING LEADING UP TO THIS NEXT SYSTEM. SUNDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR MOST WITH TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES BUT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CONUS BY MIDWEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO LATE WEEK. JLDUNN && .UPDATE.../1148 AM CDT/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ALSO MOVING ACROSS KANSAS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH...WITH THE LEADING EDGE NEAR A VERNON TO SWEETWATER TO OZONA LINE. THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE MIXING EAST...STALLING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AROUND MID- AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. WHERE THE DRYLINE STALLS REMAINS THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE HI RES MODELS STALL THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND WHERE IT STALLS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE LOCATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE WILL STALL NEAR A GAINESVILLE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN 22-23Z /5-6 PM CDT/ AND NOW THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION TOO IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION AND TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING ALONG THE DRYLINE ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO MERIDIAN LINE. STILL KEPT THE POPS LOW AT 20 PERCENT AS ANY STORMS DURING THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME SHOULD BE ISOLATED BUT THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. CAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG WITH STRONG BULK SHEAR VALUES. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AFTER 6-7 PM...THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND A NARROW BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THIS HAPPENS. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...EXPANDED THE EVENING POPS WEST AS WELL BUT THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE MAIN THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO STRONG WINDS LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR ALONG THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO A SQUALL LINE. OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LOWER BUT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS. && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1240 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/ ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARING CAN BE SEEN FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE METROPLEX AND WACO. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING. WITH A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...THEN DECREASE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX AROUND 6Z...AND THROUGH WACO AROUND 10Z BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WENT WITH VCTS FROM 4 TO 7Z AT THIS TIME FOR ALL TAF SITES. 78.JG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 48 64 44 72 52 / 50 5 0 0 5 WACO, TX 50 66 40 72 49 / 60 5 0 0 5 PARIS, TX 47 61 40 68 47 / 60 5 0 0 5 DENTON, TX 46 63 39 70 50 / 40 5 0 0 5 MCKINNEY, TX 47 62 39 69 49 / 50 5 0 0 5 DALLAS, TX 48 64 44 72 52 / 50 5 0 0 5 TERRELL, TX 48 63 41 70 49 / 60 5 0 0 5 CORSICANA, TX 51 65 43 71 50 / 60 10 0 0 5 TEMPLE, TX 52 66 42 71 49 / 50 5 0 0 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 46 65 39 73 50 / 30 5 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-141-143>147-157>161-174. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092- 100>102-115>117-129>132-141>143. && $$ 77/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1240 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .AVIATION... ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARING CAN BE SEEN FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE METROPLEX AND WACO. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING. WITH A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...THEN DECREASE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX AROUND 6Z...AND THROUGH WACO AROUND 10Z BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WENT WITH VCTS FROM 4 TO 7Z AT THIS TIME FOR ALL TAF SITES. 78.JG && .UPDATE... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ALSO MOVING ACROSS KANSAS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH...WITH THE LEADING EDGE NEAR A VERNON TO SWEETWATER TO OZONA LINE. THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE MIXING EAST...STALLING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. WHERE THE DRYLINE STALLS REMAINS THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE HI RES MODELS STALL THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND WHERE IT STALLS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE LOCATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE WILL STALL NEAR A GAINESVILLE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN 22-23Z /5-6 PM CDT/ AND NOW THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION TOO IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION AND TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING ALONG THE DRYLINE ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO MERIDIAN LINE. STILL KEPT THE POPS LOW AT 20 PERCENT AS ANY STORMS DURING THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME SHOULD BE ISOLATED BUT THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. CAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG WITH STRONG BULK SHEAR VALUES. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AFTER 6-7 PM...THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND A NARROW BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THIS HAPPENS. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...EXPANDED THE EVENING POPS WEST AS WELL BUT THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE MAIN THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO STRONG WINDS LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR ALONG THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO A SQUALL LINE. OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LOWER BUT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING BUT BASED ON THE NEW EXPECTED POSITION OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE RFW. HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING. JLDUNN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/ GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOME GULF MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ARE NOW 15 TO 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. 60-DEGREE DEWPOINTS ARE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE WINDS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE TOWARD SUNRISE BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN. TO MAKE THINGS SIMPLER...DECIDED TO START THE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 AM AND CONTINUE IT UNTIL 7 PM FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO KILLEEN TO CAMERON TO ATHENS. A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO HAD DEEPENED IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS. A DRYLINE THAT IS OVER WEST TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON. THE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IF STORMS MANAGE TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE... THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLS AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN ACTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT SOME DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WE WILL HAVE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FRIDAY...AND 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE OFF A BIT RESULTING IN A THE GFS BEING SLOWER AND WETTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT OR SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. FOR NOW HAVE USED A BLEND WHICH STILL KEEPS THE RAIN INTO SUNDAY EVENING. DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. 58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 85 48 64 43 71 / 20 40 5 0 0 WACO, TX 83 48 66 38 71 / 10 50 5 0 0 PARIS, TX 79 46 60 40 67 / 10 60 5 0 0 DENTON, TX 83 45 63 37 70 / 20 40 5 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 82 46 61 38 68 / 20 50 5 0 0 DALLAS, TX 84 48 64 44 71 / 20 50 5 0 0 TERRELL, TX 79 48 63 40 69 / 10 60 5 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 82 51 65 43 70 / 10 60 10 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 83 50 66 41 71 / 10 50 5 0 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 86 44 65 39 72 / 10 20 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-141-143>147-157>161-174. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092- 100>102-115>117-129>132-141>143. && $$ 78
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1148 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .UPDATE... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ALSO MOVING ACROSS KANSAS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH...WITH THE LEADING EDGE NEAR A VERNON TO SWEETWATER TO OZONA LINE. THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE MIXING EAST...STALLING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. WHERE THE DRYLINE STALLS REMAINS THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE HI RES MODELS STALL THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND WHERE IT STALLS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE LOCATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE WILL STALL NEAR A GAINESVILLE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN 22-23Z /5-6 PM CDT/ AND NOW THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION TOO IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION AND TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING ALONG THE DRYLINE ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO MERIDIAN LINE. STILL KEPT THE POPS LOW AT 20 PERCENT AS ANY STORMS DURING THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME SHOULD BE ISOLATED BUT THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. CAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG WITH STRONG BULK SHEAR VALUES. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AFTER 6-7 PM...THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND A NARROW BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THIS HAPPENS. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...EXPANDED THE EVENING POPS WEST AS WELL BUT THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE MAIN THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO STRONG WINDS LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR ALONG THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO A SQUALL LINE. OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LOWER BUT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING BUT BASED ON THE NEW EXPECTED POSITION OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE RFW. HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING. JLDUNN && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/ LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE METROPLEX AND SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING. WACO WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BRINGING THEM BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z AS WELL. WITH A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...THEN DECREASING TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX LATE AROUND 6Z...AND THROUGH WACO AROUND 10Z BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WENT WITH VCTS FROM 4 TO 7Z AT THIS TIME FOR ALL TAF SITES. 78.JG .../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/... /12Z TAFS/ STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS TRANSPORTED A LARGE MASS OF LOW CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD INTO THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAF SITES PRIOR TO 06Z...AND THIS BKN/OVC025-035 SHIELD PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY. THE WESTERN EDGE...HOWEVER IS STARTING TO FRACTURE AND RETREAT EASTWARD AS WINDS IN THE LOWEST 0-3KFT BEGIN TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO A 200-210 DIRECTION. BELIEVE CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE DFW AREA TAF SITES IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME...AND AROUND 18Z AT WACO...LEAVING SCT040 CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TODAY...EXPECT WINDS THRU 21Z TO STAY RELATIVELY STEADY STATE FROM A 190-210 DIRECTION AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 20KTS. A DRYLINE WILL REACH THE METROPLEX VICINITY BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z...AND WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING TO A 220-240 DIRECTION. AT LEAST SOME MINOR CROSSWIND ISSUES COULD EXIST TODAY...ESPECIALLY ON NW- SE ORIENTED RUNWAYS. A FURTHER WIND SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WILL ENSUE BETWEEN 04-07Z AT THE METROPLEX AND WACO SITES IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SPEEDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER...DUE TO A CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE DRYLINE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOTH MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING...ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY MAY EXIST TO PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE METROPLEX EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 02Z. WHILE CONVECTION IS A GOOD BET OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT WHERE IMPROVED LARGE SCALE LIFT EXISTS... THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL IGNITE FARTHER SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND FRONT IN THE METROPLEX. FOR NOW...HAVE HELD ONTO VCTS WORDING IN DFW-AREA AND WACO TAFS...WITH THE IDEA THAT TEMPO OR CATEGORICAL WORDING MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER UPDATES. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR THE METROPLEX SITES SHOULD SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED BETWEEN 02Z-04Z...BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHUNTS THE INSTABILITY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. BRADSHAW && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/ GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOME GULF MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ARE NOW 15 TO 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. 60-DEGREE DEWPOINTS ARE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE WINDS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE TOWARD SUNRISE BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN. TO MAKE THINGS SIMPLER...DECIDED TO START THE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 AM AND CONTINUE IT UNTIL 7 PM FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO KILLEEN TO CAMERON TO ATHENS. A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO HAD DEEPENED IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS. A DRYLINE THAT IS OVER WEST TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON. THE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IF STORMS MANAGE TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE... THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLS AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN ACTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT SOME DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WE WILL HAVE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FRIDAY...AND 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE OFF A BIT RESULTING IN A THE GFS BEING SLOWER AND WETTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT OR SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. FOR NOW HAVE USED A BLEND WHICH STILL KEEPS THE RAIN INTO SUNDAY EVENING. DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. 58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 85 48 64 43 71 / 20 40 5 0 0 WACO, TX 83 48 66 38 71 / 10 50 5 0 0 PARIS, TX 79 46 60 40 67 / 10 60 5 0 0 DENTON, TX 83 45 63 37 70 / 20 40 5 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 82 46 61 38 68 / 20 50 5 0 0 DALLAS, TX 84 48 64 44 71 / 20 50 5 0 0 TERRELL, TX 79 48 63 40 69 / 10 60 5 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 82 51 65 43 70 / 10 60 10 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 83 50 66 41 71 / 10 50 5 0 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 86 44 65 39 72 / 10 20 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-141-143>147-157>161-174. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092- 100>102-115>117-129>132-141>143. && $$ 78/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
407 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANY CONVECTION WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES GET VERY WARM. 4 KM MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ECHOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NSSL 4 KM SHOWING ACTIVITY MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS (ONLY GOING OUT TO 3 AM AS OF THIS WRITING). TTU 4 KM NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING (WHICH COULD OCCUR AS WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND VIRGA). OVERALL FEELING HOWEVER IS THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE MID-LEVEL THETA-E MAX IS LOCATED AND SEA-BREEZE INTERACTION WOULD BE MAXIMIZED. THERE IS STILL A STRONG CAP (HIGH CIN) AND THE FACT THAT 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY COULD PRECLUDE ANY STRONG CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SHOULD CAP BREAK WITH SEA-BREEZE WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS 45 MPH OR MORE. IN SHORT...WILL GO WITH A 20 POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREA. ELSEWHERE...DID MENTION SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH SOME AREAS TOPPING 90 DEGREES. SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT A STRONG COOL DOWN WILL NOT BE SEEN AS UPPER TROUGH WHICH WAS SUPPOSED TO ALLOW THE COOLER AIR TO COME DOWN IS FORECAST TO BE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AND NORTHERLY FETCH IS WEAK. STILL... WILL SEE 50S MOST INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. GOING A BIT WARMER WEDNESDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF I- 37 WILL ONLY SEE 70S...WITH NEAR 80 TO LOWER 80S WEST AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. RETURN FLOW RESUMES WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT. COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM MAINLY NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS APPROACHING SCA BUT OVERALL SCEC. ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A COUPLE OF COOL/PLEASANT DAYS ARE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES EAST ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SE CONUS. NE FLOW LLVL THURS NIGHT WILL BECOME MORE ESE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. A WEAK H5 S/W TROUGH IS PROG TO ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE...BUT ALL IN ALL GOOD FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE NICE WEATHER. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROG TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES. NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TROUGH KICKS EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND AID IN SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROG TO MOVE ACROSS S TX SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED...AND THUS LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME. BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME REDEVELOPING AT THAT TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 84 63 74 51 74 / 10 40 30 0 0 VICTORIA 80 59 69 45 74 / 10 50 20 0 0 LAREDO 94 60 79 53 80 / 0 20 10 0 0 ALICE 89 62 75 47 76 / 10 30 20 0 0 ROCKPORT 82 62 72 52 72 / 10 40 40 0 0 COTULLA 92 57 76 49 78 / 0 30 10 0 0 KINGSVILLE 87 63 76 48 76 / 10 40 30 0 0 NAVY CORPUS 81 64 73 57 73 / 10 40 40 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR. && $$ GW/86...SHORT TERM RH/79...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1049 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THIS FRONT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY... RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING THE HRRR QUITE WELL...WHICH SHOWS A CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND OF THE FRONTAL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. THE FIRST LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BEFORE EVEN REACHING THE I-77 CORRIDOR WITH REALLY NO THUNDER MAKING IT MUCH PAST MIDDLE TN WITH THAT ACTIVITY. TWO OTHER NARROW LINES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FORMED ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT BACK IN EASTERN KY LIFTING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...ALSO PER HRRR. BOTH THE HRRR AND NCEP WRF SHOW VERY LITTLE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT THE RNK CWA. A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP IN THE GSP/CLT AREA AND TRANSLATE NORTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHICH MAY BE THE ONLY WAY PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO THAT PART OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SIGNS...HOWEVER...THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY HANG UP SOME ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST AND THE BEST SUPPORT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS COULD DELAY CLEARING AND PERHAPS EVEN RESULT IN LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE PIEDMONT AS LATE AS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO POPS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT. FOR THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN...HAVE GREATLY REDUCED POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER PER MESO-MODEL RUNS IS LOW AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS DEFINITELY SUPPORT LESS POPS/QPF AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURE IS BASICALLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED...SO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE INCREASED MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT...WILL REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER THREAT SO THAT NO HEADLINES PERTAINING TO FIRE WEATHER ARE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY... AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY... UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO NOT PUSH THE COOLER AIR MASS COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT VERY FAR SOUTH AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUITE A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT AND MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WEDGES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY WHICH BRINGS THE WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE. SATURDAYS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER MAXIMUMS...SIMILAR TO THE MET GUIDANCE. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SUNDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE AFTER 00Z MON/7PM SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY... MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TROF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ECMWF BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD NEW JERSEY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC WAS FAVORING THE TIMING AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY FOR RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AND INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 845 PM EDT THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BLF WHICH WILL ALREADY BE IN THE SHOWERS THAT ARE GOING TO TRAVERSE THE REGION OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD. WHILE LOCATIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP THE CERTAINTY DECREASES BEYOND THE BLUE RIDGE. MAINTAINED SHORT PERIOD OF PRECIP AT DAN AND LYH BASED ON LATEST RUN OF HRRR. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND THOSE IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LINGERING UPSLOPE MOISTURE THERE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEHIND THE LINE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS BUT STILL SOME CHANCE FOR GUSTS TOM0RROW IN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD WORK TO SLOWLY RETURN ANY STATION WITH LOW CIGS BACK TO VFR. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD BRING A THREAT FOR SUB-VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHT AND PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY... RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 800 PM. ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH...PERHAPS EVEN LESS THAN 1/10 INCH IN MOST AREAS...CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WIND COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT. SO WHILE A HEADLINE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY FOR SUCH IS LOW AT THIS TIME. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PH NEAR TERM...PH/RAB SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...JR/PH FIRE WEATHER...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
852 AM PDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOL SHOWERY WEATHER ON THURSDAY. SNOW WILL FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WARM FRONT TODAY...COLD FRONT TONIGHT. TODAY WILL BE A BIT DRIPPY WITH THE WARM FRONT. STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR. THE MOUNTAINS COULD GET LOW END SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS TONIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS 4000-4500 FEET. THURSDAY WILL BE SHOWERY AND BLUSTERY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST SLIGHT UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 2500 TO 3000 FEET. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FRIDAY AND OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER FRIDAY AND PRETTY MUCH END BY FRIDAY EVENING AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. SCHNEIDER .LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO. THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INLAND SATURDAY...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND BECOME NORTHEAST TUESDAY AHEAD OF A LARGE BLOCKING UPPER HIGH WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. MCDONNAL && .AVIATION...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND STABLE. CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY. WINDS BECOMING SW/W BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. KSEA...LIGHT RAIN IN THE AREA TODAY...WITH SHOWERS INCREASING TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. S WINDS 10-15KT...BECOMING SW WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TONIGHT. 33 && .MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY EASE ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...WEST SWELLS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 18 FEET. THE FLOW WILL BRIEFLY TURN OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. 33 && .HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR BAR. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS- PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 441 AM PDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cool, wet and breezy weather pattern will continue for the Inland Northwest this week. After a brief break today, the next weather system will arrive tonight into Thursday with more rain and mountain snow. Breezy conditions will also develop on Thursday in the wake of the cold front with the threat of snow showers continuing through Friday. Drier weather is expected by Saturday but it could be short-lived as yet another cold front brings more precipitation later on Sunday and into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight: A progressive spring weather pattern will persist over the Inland Northwest for the next 24 hours and beyond. The shower remnants of the departing shortwave will linger over north Idaho early this morning with bands of snow showers. A winter weather advisory for the Camas Prairie will come down early this morning as the snow showers are exiting this area. Doubt if any additional winter highlights will be needed. The HRRR shows the shower bands decreasing by sunrise as high pressure builds into the region with more stable conditions. Behind the band of showers and wedge of clearing, fog and stratus will be a concern as it blooms across the saturated areas around the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene areas and the surrounding valleys. The March sun should mix the lower atmosphere and help the fog/stratus dissipate by late morning. Meanwhile, this ridge of high pressure will translate across the the region. It will be being short lived and a bit dirty as mid and high level clouds increase through the day. Low level winds will back to the southwest with warm air advection and isentropic lift spreading across the region. Light precipitation will develop near the Cascade crest later by midday and spread across north central into northeast Washington by afternoon. This evening the surface cold front will slip east of the Cascades and push across eastern Washington overnight. Expect precipitation chances to increase overnight especially across extreme eastern Washington into north Idaho. Snow levels will range from 3-4K ft in the mountains with a few inches of new accumulations anticipated. The main impact is expected to be travel across Lookout Pass on I-90. Rain expected at most lower elevations. Winds will increase overnight with the passage of the front and local gusts of 30 mph. rfox ...Breezy Thursday across the Columbia Basin, Palouse and Spokane areas... Thursday and Friday: Precipitation will remain in the forecast through Friday as an upper level low pressure system weakens and moves across the Pacific Northwest out of Canada. Decent westerly flow will keep portions of the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee, Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Valley dry. Showers will remain in the forecast for the rest of the area including the Cascade crest, eastern WA (east of a line from Republic to Walla Wall), and north ID. In addition to the showers, (which could be briefly heavy at times) winds will increase from the west during the morning and remain quite breezy through the afternoon hours. Have increased the wind a bit further from previous forecast, but still have speeds below wind advisory criteria. Snow levels will remain generally around 4000 feet, but late Thur night/early Friday morning snow levels could drop down towards 3000 feet which could bring a mix of rain/snow or wet snow to portions of southern Spokane County and Whitman County. The mountains of north ID could see 4 to 8 inches, with locally higher amounts possible in southern Shoshone County. The Cascades could see 1 to 4 inches, with higher amounts of a foot or more along the crest. Saturday through Wednesday: We dry out Saturday as a shortwave ridge moves over the Inland Northwest. But, it is shortlived, as the next through pushes onshore Saturday Night and spreads precipitation into central WA by early Sunday morning and into eastern WA and north ID by late morning and afternoon. This event looks like another round of valley rain and mountain snow for the region. The low will start to dig south by Monday afternoon which will decrease chance of precipitation for the region. Northerly winds to develop Monday evening for the usual north/south oriented valleys. The Okanogan Valley will see winds increase and then be funneled down into the Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake area. Northerly winds will also funnel down the Purcell Trench and into Coeur d`Alene as well. The northerly winds will peak Tuesday afternoon and then decrease through the evening hours. Temperatures for the weekend will be at or slightly below average, then by Tuesday/Wednesday we start to trend up to at or slightly above average. /Nisbet && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: Morning scattered showers will continue in the Panhandle mountains east of KCOE. Meanwhile a MVFR cigs with patchy fog will fill into the valleys from KCOE and both north and south. It may creep toward the KGEG/KSFF area by early this morning, although confidence is not optimal. Any low decks that do develop will lift by 18z. Overall, mid and high levels clouds will be on the increase from the west. Light precipitation will move in from the west and reach the higher terrain of north central Washington by late afternoon, and spread to the valleys by the evening. Light rain and high mountain snow will spread across the TAF sites overnight with areas of MVFR cigs. /rfox. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 51 35 49 34 50 31 / 10 90 40 20 20 10 Coeur d`Alene 51 35 48 32 49 30 / 20 90 70 40 40 10 Pullman 50 36 48 34 49 31 / 10 90 70 70 50 20 Lewiston 56 38 54 38 54 34 / 10 70 50 50 50 20 Colville 57 33 50 32 51 28 / 20 70 40 20 20 10 Sandpoint 48 34 46 31 47 29 / 20 90 100 50 30 10 Kellogg 45 33 43 31 44 28 / 30 90 100 70 60 20 Moses Lake 59 36 57 36 56 33 / 10 30 0 10 10 0 Wenatchee 57 37 54 35 53 34 / 10 20 0 10 10 0 Omak 57 34 53 32 52 31 / 10 30 20 10 10 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
236 AM PDT WED MAR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW FROMTHE W TODAY...WITH A WARM FRONT POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO THE CASCADES. VALLEY RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THU INTO FRI AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS AND ADDITIONAL WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE IN FROM THE NW. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AGAIN FRI NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A COOL UPPER LOW THEN OVER THE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSRVATIONS HAVE SHOWN PERSISTENT AREAS OF LIGHT RAINFALL OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE W SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. THE CONVECTIVE AIR MASS WAS IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING TO A MORE STRATIFORM AIR MASS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN THE285KAND295K ISENTROPES SPREADING INTO THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT BRUSHES THE REGION. WITH THE NW ONSHORE FLOW OF LAST EVENING ALREADY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SW ONSHORE FLOW...MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TODAY. WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS THIS MORNING WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO END OVERNIGHT... BUT OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS BEST POPS IN THE NW PART OF THE AREA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS ESP OVER THE SE...SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WNW THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVWE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS WA. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS MAINLY BELOW 700MB WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH GOOD DYNAMICS AND ONSHORE FLOW FOLLOWING WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. WSW 850 MB FLOW WITH THE FRONT AROUND 06Z IS FAIRLY STRONG...MODELS RUNNING BETWEEN 40 TO 50 KT...WHICH WILL FAVOR OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR THE CASCADES TONIGHT. THE FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY BY MORNING THOUGH...SO WHILE THERE MAY BE A SHORT BURST OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THE CASCADES WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING BELOW PASSES BY MORNING...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO GENERALLY COME UP SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONETHELESS...AN UNSTABLE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THU KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING EVERYWHERE...BUT STILL FAVORING CASCADES WITH THE BEST POPS. MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING S THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW THU NIGHT INTO FRI. TIMING VARIES A BIT IN THE MODELS...BUT OVERALL THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING INTO FRI...WITH THE BEST POPS OVER THE S WA CASCADES WHERE DYNAMICS WITH THE WAVE ARE STRONGEST. WILL INDICATE A LOWERING OF POPS BY FRI AFTERNOON THOUGH AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE SSE. .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSING OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIOD HAS IMPROVED A BIT TODAY...AND HAVE MOVED THE FORECAST TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO REMAIN DRY INLAND THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN MAY BEGIN ALONG THE COAST BY AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND SATURDAY EVENING AND SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH...AROUND 6000 FEET. RAIN THEN TRANSITIONS TO SHOWERS IN THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT AND PRECIPITATION IN THE CASCADES WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME SNOW AS SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 3000 FEET LATER SUNDAY IN THE COOL POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE REGION TO THE 5400-5450 METER RANGE AS A DEEP UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE REGION AND PARKS OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS EARLY MONDAY MAY LOWER TO NEAR THE HIGHEST COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILL ELEVATIONS AS SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS CONTINUE. EXPECT A DRYING AND WARMING TREND FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CULLEN && .AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL OF MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT LIKELY AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. VFR LIKELY TURNING TO MVFR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE TONIGHT. KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR WITH LOCAL CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z WED. MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET BECOMING LIKELY AFTER 04Z THU WITH OCCASIONAL 3-4SM IN RAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR AFTER 09Z THU. /MH && .MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING GALE GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS MAY HAVE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 35 KT BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRES TO THE SW STRENGTHENS OVER THE WATERS THU AND FRI. THE HIGH PRES IS THEN KNOCKED DOWN BY ANOTHER FRONT ON SUN WHICH MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. SEAS AROUND 9 TO 10 FT WITH A DOWNWARD TREND THIS MORNING BUT WILL BUILD AGAIN LATER TODAY AND PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS ON THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD GO BELOW 10 FT ON SAT. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING. && $$ INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 226 AM PDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cool, wet and breezy weather pattern will continue for the Inland Northwest this week. After a brief break today, the next weather system will arrive tonight into Thursday with more rain and mountain snow. Breezy conditions will also develop on Thursday in the wake of the cold front with the threat of snow showers continuing through Friday. Drier weather is expected by Saturday but it could be short-lived as yet another cold front brings more precipitation later on Sunday and into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight: A progressive spring weather pattern will persist over the Inland Northwest for the next 24 hours and beyond. The shower remnants of the departing shortwave will linger over north Idaho early this morning with bands of snow showers. A winter weather advisory for the Camas Prairie will come down early this morning as the snow showers are exiting this area. Doubt if any additional winter highlights will be needed. The HRRR shows the shower bands decreasing by sunrise as high pressure builds into the region with more stable conditions. Behind the band of showers and wedge of clearing, fog and stratus will be a concern as it blooms across the saturated areas around the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene areas and the surrounding valleys. The March sun should mix the lower atmosphere and help the fog/stratus dissipate by late morning. Meanwhile, this ridge of high pressure will translate across the the region. It will be being short lived and a bit dirty as mid and high level clouds increase through the day. Low level winds will back to the southwest with warm air advection and isentropic lift spreading across the region. Light precipitation will develop near the Cascade crest later by midday and spread across north central into northeast Washington by afternoon. This evening the surface cold front will slip east of the Cascades and push across eastern Washington overnight. Expect precipitation chances to increase overnight especially across extreme eastern Washington into north Idaho. Snow levels will range from 3-4K ft in the mountains with a few inches of new accumulations anticipated. The main impact is expected to be travel across Lookout Pass on I-90. Rain expected at most lower elevations. Winds will increase overnight with the passage of the front and local gusts of 30 mph. rfox ...Breezy Thursday across the Columbia Basin, Palouse and Spokane areas... Thursday and Friday: Precipitation will remain in the forecast through Friday as an upper level low pressure system weakens and moves across the Pacific Northwest out of Canada. Decent westerly flow will keep portions of the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee, Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Valley dry. Showers will remain in the forecast for the rest of the area including the Cascade crest, eastern WA (east of a line from Republic to Walla Wall), and north ID. In addition to the showers, (which could be briefly heavy at times) winds will increase from the west during the morning and remain quite breezy through the afternoon hours. Have increased the wind a bit further from previous forecast, but still have speeds below wind advisory criteria. Snow levels will remain generally around 4000 feet, but late Thur night/early Friday morning snow levels could drop down towards 3000 feet which could bring a mix of rain/snow or wet snow to portions of southern Spokane County and Whitman County. The mountains of north ID could see 4 to 8 inches, with locally higher amounts possible in southern Shoshone County. The Cascades could see 1 to 4 inches, with higher amounts of a foot or more along the crest. Saturday through Wednesday: We dry out Saturday as a shortwave ridge moves over the Inland Northwest. But, it is shortlived, as the next through pushes onshore Saturday Night and spreads precipitation into central WA by early Sunday morning and into eastern WA and north ID by late morning and afternoon. This event looks like another round of valley rain and mountain snow for the region. The low will start to dig south by Monday afternoon which will decrease chance of precipitation for the region. Northerly winds to develop Monday evening for the usual north/south oriented valleys. The Okanogan Valley will see winds increase and then be funneled down into the Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake area. Northerly winds will also funnel down the Purcell Trench and into Coeur d`Alene as well. The northerly winds will peak Tuesday afternoon and then decrease through the evening hours. Temperatures for the weekend will be at or slightly below average, then by Tuesday/Wednesday we start to trend up to at or slightly above average. /Nisbet && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Isolated -shra/-shsn near the WA/ID border will continue to shift east-southeast tonight, decreasing the threat around TAF sites between 06-10Z. A low level southwest flow and moist BL should allow for some MVFR/IFR stratus to develop, with the potential for localized fog, as the precipitation is ending. Confidence in fog development is low. The threat of fog/stratus will dissipate after 15-18Z, but some pop-up showers are possible around the mountains Wednesday afternoon. A broader threat of precipitation comes in Wednesday night with the next system, but the best risk holds off until after 06Z Thursday (Wednesday night). /J. Cote` && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 51 35 49 34 50 31 / 10 90 40 20 20 10 Coeur d`Alene 51 35 48 32 49 30 / 20 90 70 40 40 10 Pullman 50 36 48 34 49 31 / 10 90 70 70 50 20 Lewiston 56 38 54 38 54 34 / 10 70 50 50 50 20 Colville 57 33 50 32 51 28 / 20 70 40 20 20 10 Sandpoint 48 34 46 31 47 29 / 20 90 100 50 30 10 Kellogg 45 33 43 31 44 28 / 30 90 100 70 60 20 Moses Lake 59 36 57 36 56 33 / 10 30 0 10 10 0 Wenatchee 57 37 54 35 53 34 / 10 20 0 10 10 0 Omak 57 34 53 32 52 31 / 10 30 20 10 10 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
950 PM PDT TUE MAR 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL TAPER TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY...THEN DECREASE ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...STILL A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN A CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER SNOHOMISH COUNTY. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK WARM FRONT ALREADY EAST OF 130W AT 04Z. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND BRUSH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT BACK OUT NEAR 135W THIS EVENING WILL APPROACH THE COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL DO A SMALL UPDATE TO THE ZONE AND INCREASE THE POPS FROM SEATTLE SOUTH INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STEADY RAIN GIVING WAY TO SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT WILL BE ABOVE SNOQUALMIE AND STEVENS PASS...NEAR 4500 FEET. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S. GOOD POST FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD OROGRAPHIC FLOW ALOFT AS WELL WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE END OF MARCH. THE AIR MASS WILL COOL WITH THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR 3000 FEET FOR SNOW IN ALL THE PASSES. WEAK SHORTWAVES SPINNING OUT OF A TROUGH ALONG THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD...NEAR 40. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE. NOT FAST ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. FELTON .LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN EITHER LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL TURN INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER && .AVIATION...A LINGERING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS WHAT LOOKS TO BE A CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF SNOHOMISH COUNTY...OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY IS PRETTY LIMITED. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY STABLE...EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE STABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE AREA ON WED...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WED NIGHT. 33/SMR KSEA...S/SW WINDS TO 10 KT. HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS FROM TAF AS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF TERMINAL. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z WED. 33/SMR && .MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND LOWER PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE WESTERLY SWELLS ARE STILL BOUNCING BETWEEN 9 FT AND 10 FT FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING TO COVER THIS GOING BACK AND FORTH...AND WILL LIKELY BE OKAY TO EXPIRE WITHOUT ANY EXTENSION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT CLIPS WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY THEN EASE ON FRIDAY. THE FLOW MAY TURN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. 33 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 940 PM PDT TUE MAR 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cool, wet and breezy weather pattern will continue for the Inland Northwest this week. The first wet weather system will end late tonight but will be followed by another round of precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday. Breezy conditions will also develop on Thursday in the wake of the cold front with the threat of snow showers continuing through Friday. Drier weather may develop by Saturday but it could be short-lived as yet another cold front brings more precipitation on Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Evening update: modifications were made to the ongoing advisory and I added fog to the forecast. The deformation axis and instability showers continue across eastern WA and north ID this evening. These should continue to shift east-southeast through the remainder of the night. Some minor adjustments: I extended the winter weather advisory for the Camas Prairie through 12Z (5 AM). The most likely impacts are expected until 06-09Z so it may be possible this may be removed earlier than 12Z. Additional accumulations up an 1 inch are possible here. The advisory for the Blue Mountains has been cancelled with the main band of precipitation shifting east. I added fog to the forecast for later tonight and early Tuesday, largely across the upper Columbia Basin into the Spokane/C`dA area, higher Palouse and in the sheltered valleys. Confidence in precise onset and dissipation, as well as coverage may is low to fair so adjustment may be needed. Some factors supporting fog: the very moist boundary layer from all the precipitation we had today, the winds are expected to abate through the night and become more southwesterly and we have clearing from the west. Forecast soundings also indicate a moderate to strong low level inversion setting up with a mid-level ridge coming in from the west ahead of the next system. The HRRR supports the broader coverage of fog developing after midnight over eastern Lincoln and western Spokane county but it has been inconsistent on the precise timing and coverage. So for the most part I kept the fog wording as patchy, save for the typical areas around the West Plains of Spokane which may suffer from more fog. /J. Cote` && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: Moisture and instability around an exiting upper low will provide SCT -SHRA/SHSN over east WA/north ID tonight. The better threat will be found before 03Z, then start to retreat to the southeast and wane overnight into Wednesday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will be found over NE and central WA, east of MWH and west of GEG, mainly before sunset. These are expected to stay away from TAF sites, but radar trends will be monitored. Other isolated showers are possible again Wed PM, mainly closer to the mountain. Expect VFR/LCL MVFR this evening, but as the night progresses MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to become more widespread near GEG/SFF/COE/PUW, with some upslope stratus. There could also be some localized fog. Conditions should improve after 18Z tomorrow. /J. Cote` && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 34 50 36 50 33 50 / 30 10 90 40 20 20 Coeur d`Alene 34 48 36 48 32 50 / 30 20 90 60 40 40 Pullman 35 49 36 48 34 50 / 70 10 90 60 70 50 Lewiston 37 55 40 53 38 55 / 70 10 70 50 50 50 Colville 33 53 35 50 30 51 / 20 20 70 40 20 20 Sandpoint 34 46 35 46 30 47 / 50 30 90 80 50 30 Kellogg 34 43 32 43 31 45 / 60 40 90 100 70 60 Moses Lake 35 59 39 59 34 55 / 0 10 30 10 10 10 Wenatchee 38 57 38 56 35 52 / 0 10 20 10 10 10 Omak 34 57 36 55 31 52 / 10 10 20 20 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
301 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE CURRENT FORECAST VERSUS OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC BAND ANCHORED AT 600-700MB HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTH OF I-90 AS FORECAST WELL BY THE RAP MODEL GUIDANCE. AS EVENING APPROACHES...A MORE SW-NE ORIENTED BAND WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH CENTRAL WI. THIS IS THE BAND CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR OVER MN...WHICH WILL INTENSIFY AND DROP SOUTHEAST. GETTING SOME MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE S-SW OF LA CROSSE PER OBSERVATIONS AND DUAL POL CC PRODUCT. VERY GOOD AND CONSISTENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE COMING IN FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. OVERALL THE HEAVIEST LIQUID AMOUNTS LINE UP WELL WITH OUR ONGOING FORECAST. THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES 1.3 INCHES OF LIQUID IN THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND. SNOW RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE A BIG DETERMINISTIC FACTOR IN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW...WITH 10-11 TO 1 PROBABLY ABOUT RIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND...LOSS OF ICE ALOFT WILL CAUSE A FREEZING DRIZZLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS MAY BE AROUND SOME HOURS UNTIL THE CONVECTIVE SURGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHERE DEEP ICE WILL AGAIN ENTER THE AREA. THE WARM LAYER ALOFT IN THE SOUTH REMAINS WARM ENOUGH FOR COMPLETE MELTING AS WELL AND COLD AIR IS UNDERCUTTING THIS WARM LAYER LATER TONIGHT. WHILE THE ADVISORY COVERS SOME OF THIS AREA...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE HIGHWAY 18 CORRIDOR FOR MORE ICING OVERNIGHT...AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT...SO ICING SHOULD BE MINIMIZED THERE. THE NEW FORECAST HAS ALSO SLOWED THE SNOW EXIT ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL IN WISCONSIN FOR THE COMMUTE HOURS. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN TO SHARE IS THE TREND IN THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WITH A FURTHER SOUTH /NERN IA-SWRN WI/ SOLUTION TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...AND THE DIMINISHING FRONTOGENETIC SW-NE BAND OVER SERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. COMPARING TO HOP WRF SOLUTIONS AND OTHER MESOMODELS...THINKING THE HRRR IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BOTTOM LINE IS TRAVEL WILL GET PRETTY TREACHEROUS TONIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR IN FRONTOGENETIC BAND. INSTABILITY IS ALREADY SEEN IN THE RADAR IMAGERY WITH VERY SHOWERY LOOKS TO ELEMENTS SOUTH OF THE MAIN SNOW BAND. ALSO SEEING 100 C-G LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NEBRASKA...SO WE COULD BE IN FOR A THUNDERSNOW TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE 10-14 INCH SNOW BAND FROM SERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. ICING AND SLEET WILL MIX IN TO THE SOUTH WITH MAYBE A TENTH OF ICING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 SIGNALS CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITHOUT CHANGES...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LOOKING MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN WISCONSIN. MONITORING CONTINUES FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME ON MORE SIGNIFICANT ENERGY SHIFTING THROUGH THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. BOTH THE 23.00Z AND 23.12Z ECMWF AND 23.12 CANADIAN SUGGEST THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS STRONGER THAN THE GFS SYSTEM OF SOLUTIONS...WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AND WELL FORMED DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SHIELD WHICH LOOKS TO BE SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE. THIS COULD AFFECT SOUTHWEST OR CENTRAL WI DEPENDING ON THE TREND. THE PROGRESSIVE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE NO WEATHER FOR THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE CARRIED LOW RANGE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 MAINLY AN IFR PERIOD FOR THE TAF SITES WITH HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF...THUNDER MAY BE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE AREA. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED OVERNIGHT IN THE TAF AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR ABOUT 10-12 INCHES OF SNOW AT KRST AND 8 INCHES AT KLSE BY THURSDAY MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM LAST WEEK...AREA RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT BOTH GUTTENBERG AND MCGREGOR AND THE WISCONSIN RIVER AT MUSCODA. SNOW MELT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY PROLONG ELEVATED LEVELS IN AREA RIVERS. ONLY THOSE RIVERS NEAR FLOOD STAGE WOULD POSSIBLY RE-ENTER FLOOD STAGE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ041>044-053. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029- 032>034. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ054-055. MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ094>096. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088. IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ011. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT AVIATION...BAUMGARDT HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IMPACT THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A 989 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER SRN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW AND WAS APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE, THE BACKDOOR FRONT THAT STALLED OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT IS FINALLY STARTING TO PROGRESS NWD THRU SE PA AND C NJ. VERY MILD TEMPS IN THE 60S AND GUSTY SLY WINDS RESIDE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHILE TEMPS WERE ONLY IN THE 40S UNDER A LIGHT ELY FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE OFFICE RECENTLY JUMPED FROM 45 TO 63 DEGREES IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT A SIMILAR WARM UP FARTHER NORTH INTO NE PA AND NW NJ ONCE THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVES LATER THIS MORNING. THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES IN E PA. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG SLY WINDS ACCOMPANYING A LOW-LEVEL JET STREAK ENHANCES LIFT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR, RAP AND HIRES NCEP WRF ARW/NMM ADVERTISE A TEMPORARILY BREAK IN THE PRECIP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AFTER THE INITIAL OVERRUNNING SHOWERS PROGRESSES TO OUR EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS THEN FORECAST TO REDEVELOP TOWARD MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THESE SAME MODELS ALSO SHOW 250-500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. ASSUMING WE GET AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DURING PEAK HEATING, MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S ARE WELL WITHIN REACH FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS ARE IN THE 60S FARTHER N/W WITH AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. NW WINDS AND CAA IN ITS WAKE WILL RESULT IN A TEMPS DROPPING STEADILY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. SUB-FREEZING LOWS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE PA AND NW NJ. LOWS IN THE 40S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE FALL LINE (A FAR CRY FROM THE MILD READINGS IN THE 60S EARLY THIS MORNING). ASIDE FROM SCT CAA STRATOCU OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, EXPECT LITTLE ELSE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD AND FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE BUILD IN ON SAT, ANCHORED OVER NERN CANADA SAT NIGHT AND MOVG OFFSHORE ON SUN. SO, WHILE THE WX WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEEKEND, A PERSISTENT NE TO E FLOW WILL KEEP IT FEELING COOLER WITH CLOUDS AROUND ESPECIALLY ON SUN AND NR THE CST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MOVES NEWD TWD THE OH VLY AND MID-ATLC ON MON. THIS LOW WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA MAINLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MON, BEFORE IT MOVES AWAY. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WRT THIS SYS. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FOR MON NIGHT THRU WED BEFORE MOVG OFFSHORE ON THU. THIS PD WILL FEATURE DRY WX. BY LATER THU, LOW PRES IN CANADA WILL BRING ANOTHER CDFNT TWD THE AREA AND RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE. TEMPS GENLY LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NRML THRU THE PD.TUE WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE CFP. THU CUD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. EARLIER FOG AND STRATUS HAS ERODED ACROSS THE NRN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THRU DAYBREAK AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. MAINLY EXPECTING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THESE SHOWERS. WE CONTINUE TO INCLUDE LLWS IN THE TAFS THRU MID MRNG WITH A 45-55 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. SLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID MORNING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO HIGH END MVFR OR VFR SHORTLY AFTER. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF TS WITH THIS CONVECTION BUT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAFS THIS FAR OUT. THE WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE SW THIS MORNING AND THEN W-NW THIS AFTN IN WAKE OF FROPA. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES BETWEEN 15-25 KT. OUTLOOK... SAT THRU SUN...VFR OVERALL. NE WIND SAT THEN BECMG E SAT NIGHT INTO SUN GENLY AROUND 10 KTS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR/IFR CONDS LOCALLY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MDT CONFIDENCE OVERALL. SUN NIGHT...CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN LATE AS PRECIP CHCS INCREASE TWD MON MRNG. MVFR/IFR CONDS PSBL AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MON THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR/IFR MON INTO MON EVE AS LOW PRES BRINGS PDS OF RAIN, MAINLY THRU ERLY AFTN. CONDS IMPROVE MON EVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TUE...VFR. HIGH PRES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. GUSTY NW WIND 20 TO 25 KTS. && .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DE BAY AND COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS FOR TODAY. THE WARM FRONT HAD FINALLY LIFTED NORTH OF OUR WATERS LAST NIGHT. BEHIND IT, WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 KT TODAY. THE DIRECTION OF THE WIND WILL INITIALLY BE SLY BUT SHIFT OUT OF THE SW LATER THIS MRNG AND THEN EVENTUALLY W-NW DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT OFF THE NJ AND DE COAST WILL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALLER VESSELS. THE SCA CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY FOR SEAS AROUND 5-6 FT. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THRUOUT THE NIGHT. OUTLOOK... SAT..A FURTHER EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE DURG THE LATE MRNG ON SAT, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO IT ATTM. OTHERWISE BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THRU THE REMAINDER OF SAT. SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. MON THRU TUE...SEAS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYS AND BY LATE MON OR ERLY MON EVE SCA IS LIKELY CONTINUING INTO TUE ERLY TUE. WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE MON NIGHT INTO ERLY TUE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430- 431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...KLEIN SHORT TERM...KLEIN LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... WINDS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY GUSTY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ENHANCED WINDS APPEAR TO BE DUE TO THE PASSAGE A GRAVITY WAVE THAT WAS GENERATED BY A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION THAT MOVED OFF THE GEORGIA COAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 35-45 MPH AT THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT SINCE 145 AM AND WITH ATMOSPHERE NOW WELL MIXED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE GRAVITY WAVE...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING...THEN STALL OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA AS ITS SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL UPSTREAM IMPULSES THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTERACT WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE THAT DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING QLCS TO THE SOUTH LATE THURSDAY EVENING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE COAST MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS NEAR 60 PERCENT SEEMS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT COVERAGE AND TIMING INCREASES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LATEST TIMING NOTED IN THE VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SETS...WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S FOR ALL BUT FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE MID 70S LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION IS SLOWER TO FORM OR IF TEMPERATURES WARM QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE...THEN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S COULD OCCUR. MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS YIELD MODEST INSTABILITY TODAY WITH SBCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KT COUPLED WITH CALCULATED DCAPES 700-950 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT LIKELY ATTM...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...IF HIGHS CAN WARM TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THAT AREA. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TONIGHT...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MEANDERS EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY ENTER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...SUGGESTING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD POP UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S. SATURDAY...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT IN ITS LOCATION COULD LEAD TO LARGE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY...PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RIGHT NOW THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SAVANNAH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BE MUCH HIGHER IF THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND WE GET MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A DELUGE OF SHORTWAVES LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE VORT ENERGY COMBINED WITH INCREASING JET DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING PWATS WILL YIELD GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. BUMPED UP THE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TO REFLECT THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL PUSH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO JUST OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS US. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV 09-12Z. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING LOWER ATTM PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT KCHS/KSAV REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION AT EITHER TERMINAL WITH THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED WITH THE 12Z CYCLE AFTER ADDITIONAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS RUNS ARE EVALUATED. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO A FRONT STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. VFR IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .MARINE... TODAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA. LOW-LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT WINDS 15-20 KT...EXCEPT NEAR 15 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEGS. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT MEANDERS INTO THE FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SPEEDS LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONT STALLS OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ST/MS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
218 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 THE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SCARCE FOR A WHILE...SO HAVE DROPPED THUNDER. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT IS ONGOING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1046 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE ONGOING ISL/SCT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS IN THE INCOMING LINE OF CONVECTION. AS EXPECTED...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO DIMINISHING TREND OF THE LINE. AT THIS POINT...THE IS BECOMING MORE BROKEN IN NATURE WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND IS CONTINUING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. LOWERED MENTION OF THUNDER TO ONLY ISOLATED AS THE LINE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CWA...WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED AFTER 4Z. HOWEVER...IF THIS WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES...OVERALL POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL. THERE ARE STILL SOME GUSTS ALONG THIS LINE AS SOME OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE TAPPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SO 20 TO 30 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH AT LEAST 4Z AS WELL. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK FOR ALL OTHER PARAMETERS THIS EVENING. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS WELL ON TRACK WITH THESE CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. WILL LIKELY UPDATE THE ZFP TO REFLECT THE CHANGE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH HWO STILL SEEMS TO BE VALID. UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 HAVE BEEN UPDATING POPS AND WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TO CAPTURE THE MOVEMENT OF THE LINE OF STORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE STATE. EXPECT THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRIKES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. WHILE GUSTS ALONG THE LINE OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...THERE REALLY HASN/T BEEN MUCH OTHER IMPACTS REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL KY THUS FAR. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO WARRANT LETTING OUR LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8PM. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE CHANGES IN POPS AND WEATHER WARRANTED A PACKAGE UPDATE. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 AT MID AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT THE NORTHERN END OF INDIANA TO EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ON SOUTHWESTWARD. SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT. THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OUT OF KY EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE STILL KICKING UP AT TIMES AT MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. WITH A NPW FOR WIND ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW...WITH STILL SOME SMALL POTENTIAL TO REACH ADVISORY OR LAKE WIND ADVISORY LATE TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ASIDE FROM CONVECTION...THE GREATEST WIND THREAT HAS FADED. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BRING STRONG WINDS...AND WE CONTINUE IN A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FROM SPC. SHOWERS WILL END WITH FROPA...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PRESENT A FROST THREAT IN OUR COLDER VALLEYS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE PATCHY FROST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND TWO PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THE INITIAL BOUT OF RAIN IS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WITH THE FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z ON SUNDAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO PERHAPS SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL STEADILY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO OUR EAST...TAKING ITS LIFT WITH IT. WE SHOULD THEN SEE AN EXTENDED BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY SETS UP SHOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THAT TIME. THE MODELS TRY TO BRING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN GENERAL THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WAS USED TO ADJUST THE MODEL BLEND FORECAST AS WE ARE NOW IN THE WARM SEASON WITH LESS COLD AIR TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD. THE FORECAST IS CALLING FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO ENTER EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...AS RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE RULE THE WEATHER ON THOSE DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL COOL OFF QUITE A BIT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS COOLER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM. WE COULD EASILY SEE HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY. THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE WEEK LOOK TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN THE MERCURY MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP DOWN TO MVFR THROUGH DAWN AS WINDS VEER MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MVFR CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY BREAKING UP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 09Z...WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING THEREAFTER. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1247 AM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2016 Updated the aviation discussion for th 06z TAF issuance. UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016 Updated the aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016 The band of showers from Owensboro to Madisonville will slowly push east northeast out of the region by late this afternoon. We cannot rule out a few lightning strikes, but any significant intensification should not occur until it passes out of our area. Recent shower development along the actual cold front near the Wabash River should struggle to survive as it moves into a worked over airmass. The entire area should be dry by 00Z this evening, but low clouds will overspread the area behind the front, and linger for much of the night. West northwest winds will slowly weaken through the night, but they are not expected to go calm by morning. The combination of clouds and winds should keep temperatures from dropping down to the freezing mark and frost from forming in the morning. Considerable uncertainty exists in how long clouds may linger Friday, but tried to lean toward the warm side of guidance for highs. The surface high will still be in control of the region Friday night, but winds will not be calm. Temperatures should drop into the 30s over most of the area, but a freeze or frost is not likely at this time. Plenty of sunshine and a return to south winds should allow for a nice warm up on Saturday. More confidently leaned toward the warm side of the guidance envelope for highs. An inverted surface trough will develop southwest to northeast through the region Saturday night, as our Easter storm system approaches. We should stay dry through sunrise Sunday morning, but clouds will be on the increase from the west. Guidance is locked in to the middle 40s for lows so did not deviate much at all. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday Night) Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016 In the extended forecast period, the ECMWF guidance is still preferred from previous forecast shifts given it consistency in space and time across the WFO PAH forecast area. In addition to the blended guidance, added a little weighting toward the ECMWF solution with the first system on Sunday...with confidence greater than 50 percent. Have lower confidence on the early onset of precipitation with the next system next Wednesday. The pattern has set up with a progressive mean trough over the conterminous U.S. through the period, with intervening shortwave ridges. This would place precipitation event over the area about every 2-3 days. With the continual changes from warm to cold advection regimes and mixing, diurnal ranges will be minimized somewhat, reducing the concern for late night/early morning freeze potential or record afternoon highs. Although evapotranspiration is increasing this time of year, have doubt that there will be large scale drying between systems. A compact short wave moves through Sunday and Sunday evening, with some intensification at the low-middle levels of the atmosphere. At this point, the best potential for thunderstorms seems to be across the Delta region of Southeast Missouri and West Kentucky, along and just east of the forecast surface low moving over the area. Given the likelihood for outdoor activities Sunday, will continue to highlight in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. The system next Wednesday/Thursday is somewhat less distinct, with periodic shortwaves generating precipitation in a broad southwest flow regime. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2016 A large area of remnant MVFR cigs trails behind the departing system and will pass through the Quad State area this morning. Expect MVFR cigs to prevail until around sunrise near KCGI/KPAH and until mid day near KEVV/KOWB. Cigs will fall below 2kft at times, particularly prevailing closer to the system near KEVV/KOWB. Cigs will scatter/clear quickly as high pressure moves in for the day. North winds will develop an easterly component by mid morning and slowly decrease to AOB 7 kts by afternoon. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ AVIATION UPDATE...BP2 SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1247 AM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2016 Updated the aviation discussion for th 06z TAF issuance. UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016 Updated the aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016 The band of showers from Owensboro to Madisonville will slowly push east northeast out of the region by late this afternoon. We cannot rule out a few lightning strikes, but any significant intensification should not occur until it passes out of our area. Recent shower development along the actual cold front near the Wabash River should struggle to survive as it moves into a worked over airmass. The entire area should be dry by 00Z this evening, but low clouds will overspread the area behind the front, and linger for much of the night. West northwest winds will slowly weaken through the night, but they are not expected to go calm by morning. The combination of clouds and winds should keep temperatures from dropping down to the freezing mark and frost from forming in the morning. Considerable uncertainty exists in how long clouds may linger Friday, but tried to lean toward the warm side of guidance for highs. The surface high will still be in control of the region Friday night, but winds will not be calm. Temperatures should drop into the 30s over most of the area, but a freeze or frost is not likely at this time. Plenty of sunshine and a return to south winds should allow for a nice warm up on Saturday. More confidently leaned toward the warm side of the guidance envelope for highs. An inverted surface trough will develop southwest to northeast through the region Saturday night, as our Easter storm system approaches. We should stay dry through sunrise Sunday morning, but clouds will be on the increase from the west. Guidance is locked in to the middle 40s for lows so did not deviate much at all. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday Night) Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2016 In the extended forecast period, the ECMWF guidance is still preferred from previous forecast shifts given it consistency in space and time across the WFO PAH forecast area. In addition to the blended guidance, added a little weighting toward the ECMWF solution with the first system on Sunday...with confidence greater than 50 percent. Have lower confidence on the early onset of precipitation with the next system next Wednesday. The pattern has set up with a progressive mean trough over the conterminous U.S. through the period, with intervening shortwave ridges. This would place precipitation event over the area about every 2-3 days. With the continual changes from warm to cold advection regimes and mixing, diurnal ranges will be minimized somewhat, reducing the concern for late night/early morning freeze potential or record afternoon highs. Although evapotranspiration is increasing this time of year, have doubt that there will be large scale drying between systems. A compact short wave moves through Sunday and Sunday evening, with some intensification at the low-middle levels of the atmosphere. At this point, the best potential for thunderstorms seems to be across the Delta region of Southeast Missouri and West Kentucky, along and just east of the forecast surface low moving over the area. Given the likelihood for outdoor activities Sunday, will continue to highlight in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. The system next Wednesday/Thursday is somewhat less distinct, with periodic shortwaves generating precipitation in a broad southwest flow regime. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2016 A large area of remnant MVFR cigs trails behind the departing system and will pass through the Quad State area this morning. Expect MVFR cigs to prevail until around sunrise near KCGI/KPAH and until mid day near KEVV/KOWB. Cigs will fall below 2kft at times, particularly prevailing closer to the system near KEVV/KOWB. Cigs will scatter/clear quickly as high pressure moves in for the day. North winds will develop an easterly component by mid morning and slowly decrease to AOB 7 kts by afternoon. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ AVIATION UPDATE...BP2 SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1255 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Updated 1140 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016 Updated the forecast to include patchy drizzle in low clouds for the overnight hours. Radar imagery downstream indicates streaks of very light precip which is likely drizzle. 0Z NAM soundings indicate good low level moisture for drizzle through Fri morning. Updated 911 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016 Convection continues along a cold front this evening, which now has passed over I-65 and is heading into the Bluegrass region. Storms have shown a gradual weakening trend over the past few hours and expect that to continue with the loss of heating. Surface temps only in the upper 50s to low 60s ahead of the convection is likely not lending to much, if any, surface-based instability. Nevertheless, some gusts of 30-35 mph and brief heavy downpours remain on the table for the next couple hours in the Bluegrass, before all convection pushes east. Did go ahead and up sky cover tonight across the region as there is quite an expansive shield of stratus upstream rotating into the Ohio Valley. Updated 622 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016 Quick update early this evening to account for the latest storm trends. Convection has blossomed along the cold front, now pushing across northern portions of I-65. The storms have remained strong, but sub-severe given instability continues to remain meager. In fact, where convection has developed is the location that has yet to see much in the way of rain so far today so some surface-based instability has been able to develop. The storms over the next couple of hours will be capable of producing some small hail and winds to 45 mph. Can`t rule out a rogue severe cell, but think that threat has likely already peaked along with the diurnal heating cycle. .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)... Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016 The concerns this afternoon will continue to be the potential for severe weather, as well as gradient wind gusts. Gradient winds have been gusting mainly in the upper 30s to around 40. However, there have been some gusts as high as 45 mph. The wind advisory continues until 23Z, but will continue to monitor gusts as it may be able to be let go before then. The rain that has moved across central KY today has helped to stabilize the area. However, SPC mesoanalysis does show an area of slight instability across west central KY. In addition the 0-6 km shear values are around 60 knots across the region. Mesoscale models do suggest that the instability will spread eastward this afternoon into western portions of the forecast area before weakening towards the early evening hours. The HRRR continues to show strengthening of the line of storms right along the cold front into the evening hours. All things considered, there is still a slight chance for some strong to severe storms this afternoon with hail and wind gusts. The storms should move out of the area by around 03Z or so with some light showers continuing across the Bluegrass overnight. Rain should move out completely by daybreak Friday, with dry conditions expected Friday night. Temperatures will fall in the wake of the cold front overnight into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Despite the low temps, frost formation is not expected as winds will remain elevated overnight. Highs tomorrow will be much cooler, in the lower to mid 50s. Lows Friday night will dip into the mid to upper 30s. With light winds and high pressure, some frost will be possible early Saturday morning. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2016 Saturday will remain dry with high pressure ridging in from the northeast. Temperature will warm into the 60s under mostly sunny skies. Lows Saturday night will be much warmer, in the 40s areawide. A trough will dig into the Plains on Sunday and cross the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms with this system still looks to be late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Given the dry weather for much of the day ahead of this system, temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The severe potential does not look overly impressive with this system, but a few strong storms will not be out of the question. The rain should move out on Monday morning. Tuesday through Wednesday look to be dry as high pressure builds into the area. In the wake of the system Sunday night, temps on Monday will be back in the 50s. We will then see a warm up through mid week with temps back into the mid to upper 60s. The next chance for rain will come Wednesday night into Thursday. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Updated at 1250 AM EDT Fri Mar 25 2016 Cold front has pushed on into eastern Kentucky, leaving the terminals in a brief post-frontal window of VFR. However, a broad stratus shield associated with the upper low lurks just to our west and extends well back into Missouri. Cold pool aloft will keep the stratus in play overnight and even well into Friday afternoon. Will take ceilings down to high-end MVFR fairly quickly, with a continued WNW wind surge keeping gusts just shy of 20 kt for a couple more hrs. Expect SDF and LEX to go into fuel-alternate shortly before daybreak, while closer to the edge of the cloud shield, BWG stays just above 2000 feet. Low ceilings hold through midday, with some improvement early in the afternoon before finally clearing out late afternoon. Light NW winds by daybreak will slowly clock around to NE by late afternoon/early evening as surface high pressure continues to build. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........KJD/AMS Short Term.....EER Long Term......EER Aviation.......RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
429 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SN YDAY OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA. THE INCOMING AIRMASS ABOVE ASSOCIATED SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM JAMES BAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RATHER DRY PER THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS...WHERE THE PWATS WERE GENERALLY ABOUT 0.20 INCH /ABOUT 65 PCT OF NORMAL/. ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS LINGER OVER THE FAR ERN CWA...THE COMBINATION OF THE LLVL ACYC FLOW/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS RESULTING IN MOCLR SKIES W TO NW MN...WHERE SOME MID AND HI CLDS ARE PRESENT IN THE WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF A PAIR OF SHRTWVS...ONE MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS/ FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPR MI HAVE FALLEN AS LO AS THE SINGLE NUMBERS EARLY THIS MRNG. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY UNDER PASSSING HI PRES RDG AND THEN POPS/PTYPE LATE TNGT AS THE WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM SHRTWVS FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING RDG INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS. TODAY...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM HI/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE CWA FM THE W...THE VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS WL ENSURE DRY WX. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTING OVER LK HURON LATE IN THE DAY IS FCST TO ADVECT SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS AND LIFT H85 TEMPS TO ARND 0C BY 00Z SAT. EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 40S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LKS...MAINLY LK MI. TNGT...MODELS SHOW SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DPVA AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SRN SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS /H825-625/ MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA OVERNGT AS SFC LO PRES TROF/COLD FNT MOVES INTO WRN LK SUP BY 12Z SAT. HOW QUICKLY THIS DYNAMIC SUPPORT CAN OVERCOME THE LLVL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE PCPN IS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES SOMEWHAT SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THUS BREAKS PCPN OUT A LITTLE FASTER... BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS THAT WL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA... WL TEND TOWARD THE SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM/ LOCAL WRF-ARW. PTYPE FCST IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...BUT FCST THERMAL FIELDS SUG A MIX OF RA AND SN WL BE PSBL. CONCERN IS LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR COULD ALLOW FOR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LOWER WBLB TEMPS AOB 32F. IF PCPN IS IN THE FORM OF RA...SOME FREEZING RA COULD OCCUR. THE GOOD NEWS IS QPF THRU 12Z SAT WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...SO ANY SN/ICE ACCUM WL BE MINIMAL. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 504 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE NRN STREAM DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES...WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING AS A SRN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES AND SFC TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE WRN LAKES FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING PCPN CHANCES INTO THE WEST LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY SAT AFTEROON. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND 285K- 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SO...MUCH OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER DIURNAL WARMING PUSHES SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WITH RAIN AS THE MAIN PCPN TYPE...GIVEN THE FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICTION OF A MODEST ELEVATED WARM LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FZRA REMAINS FOR EARLY SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF. EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INFLOW TO SUPPORT QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A LAGGING SHRTWV LIFTS ENE FROM IA/WI THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. SUN-TUE...AFTER ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST DEPARTS...EXPECT CLEARING AND DRYING WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WEAK NRN STREAM SHRTWVS MAY BRUSH THE NRN LAKES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN. INCRASING WAA AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS ON TUE WILL WARMER AIR TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO UPPER MI. WED-THU...SW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OOF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH PCPN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE WED INTO THU. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE S AND GRADUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS TONIGHT UNDER A BIT TIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THRU THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AHEAD OF A HI PRES BUILDING INTO NW ONTARIO. AS THIS HI CENTER MOVES TOWARD THE AREA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. A STRONGER S-SE WIND UP TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP ON TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE HI CENTER TO THE E. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...07 MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1150 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND THEN TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 WE HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES A LITTLE WITH THE 8 PM EXPIRATION TIME COMING UP HERE SOON AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW COMING IN THIS EVENING. WE HAVE DROPPED THE SE CORNER OF THE WARNING WITH LITTLE ONGOING IMPACTS THERE AND LITTLE SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING...WE HAVE EXTENDED IT UNTIL 1 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TOP OF THE ACCUMULATED ICE UP THERE. DEFORMATION SNOW ACROSS WISCONSIN IS NOW MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT IT WILL CREATE SOME ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WITH ADDITIONAL WEIGHT ON TOP OF STRESSED TREE LIMBS...AND CREATE MORE SLICK ROADS WITH TEMPS FALLING. THIS SHOULD ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NE BY 1 AM. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 WE WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUE AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ICING...BUT WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND ICE COVERED TREES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THERE. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR CONSISTENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IN BRINGING A BAND OF DEFORMATION AXIS SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ON THE ROADS AFTER DARK AS TEMPERATURES DROP BLO FREEZING. ONCE THAT GOES BY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BY 12Z FRIDAY. FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM LOW IS APPROACHING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN OR MIX ACROSS THE NORTH. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 WE ARE MONITORING TWO SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. ONE IS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON SUN-MON. THE OTHER IS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR LATE WED-THU. THE TREND OVER THE PAST DAY IS FOR DIMINISHING PCPN CHCS FOR THE SYSTEM FOR SUN-MON. THIS TREND IS THE RESULT OF MORE SEPARATION OF THE SYSTEMS FROM SAT THROUGH SUN. WE WILL SEE THE FRONT FROM THE SAT SYSTEM BE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE TRIES TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON SUN-MON. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP PCPN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE HAVE KEPT RAIN CHCS IN THE FCST INTO MON...BUT HAVE LOWERED THEM A BIT. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT AS THERE IS POTENTIAL OF ENOUGH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THE PERIOD FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS. WE WILL SEE A NICE AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN LOWS TO OUR EAST AND WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BEGINNING ON WED AND BECOME MORE LIKELY BY THU. THE STRONG UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL START TO EJECT SHORT WAVES TO THE NE TOWARD THE STATE. THE INITIAL WAVE EJECTING INTO THE AREA ON WED WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY THU AS BETTER MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED FURTHER NORTH AHEAD OF SUBSEQUENT WAVES. WE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY MILD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AND APPROACHING 60 BEING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND CEILINGS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM AROUND 1500FT OVERNIGHT TO 2500FT FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...CEILINGS SHOULD BE SCATTERING OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHTER WINDS MOVES IN. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF LOWER MICHIGAN. 24 HOUR TOTALS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED BY 8 AM FRIDAY. RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE IN THE KALAMAZOO... GRAND... AND MUSKEGON RIVER BASINS. NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN LOWLAND AREAS ADJACENT TO RIVER BANKS. MORE IMPACTFUL MINOR FLOODING ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040- 043>045. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...NJJ SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO SHORT TERM...OSTUNO LONG TERM...NJJ AVIATION...DUKE HYDROLOGY...EBW MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
356 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY, THEN STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS HAVE SKIRTED THE COAST BUT OUR CWA HAS GENERALLY BEEN DRY AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAP/NSSL WRF AND HRRR ALL SHOW LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST AROUND 11/12Z THIS MORNING BUT WITH NO ACTIVITY ON RADAR...THINK THAT IS OVERDONE. STILL LOOKING FOR A LINE OF CONVECTION DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REMOVED OUR AREA FROM THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AND DROPPED US BACK TO GENERAL THUNDER. STABILITY PARAMETERS SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED SHEAR. THINK THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE WARM...GIVEN THE WARM START THIS MORNING...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S IN MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OFFSHORE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN AS LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 50S AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF EASTERN NC THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AGAIN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF EASTERN NC SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS IN MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS/WX SAT/SUN AND MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TRANSIENT UPPER FEATURES. TEMPS SATURDAY A BIT COOLER DUE TO COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER, HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH UPPER 60S INLAND. TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE SUNDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH TIMING OF WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM, MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH MOST OF IT ELEVATED IN NATURE SO NO SEVERE EXPECTED. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES, YIELDING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60. LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FIRST HALF OF MONDAY THOUGH TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVING WEATHER AND PERHAPS A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN WSW WITH COLUMN DRYING PROMOTING WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S (UPPER 60S OBX). TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL YIELD HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE BEACHES/OBX. NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MAY AFFECT THE AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THUNDER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... AS OF 105 AM THURSDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES THIS TAF CYCLE. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR AGAIN AFTER 15Z. SCATTERED SHRA MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AFTER 09Z...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AFTER 15Z. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS. S-SW WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT ON FRIDAY. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THEN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT IN MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE MONDAY WITH SUB-VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD/ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORIES WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR GUSTY S/SW WINDS 15-25 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 8 FEET. CURRENT OFFSHORE PLATFORMS SHOWING 6 FEET AT THE BUOY 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET AND 8 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY. FOLLOWED LATEST SWAN/NWPS FOR SHORT-TERM WAVE HEIGHTS WITH 5-8 FEET...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...DROPPING TO 4-6 FEET BY LATER TONIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS, AND SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED ABOVE 6 FT ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUNDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH VEERING TO EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT ON MONDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 6 FT AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. WINDS VEER NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS AND 6+ FT SEAS NORTH OF OCRACOKE LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...CTC/DAG MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
355 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT ALONG AND WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY... DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. ATTENDANT TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MTNS... WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY STRONG WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE 50KT LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING OF THE FRONT FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN A DUD SO FAR EAST OF THE MTNS. MAY STILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK THROUGH DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOME WEAK ELEVATED FINALLY DEVELOPS. THE LLJ JET SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING WITH TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING... FROM 21-00Z IN THE WEST TO 06-09Z IN THE EAST...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR TREND WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT CERTAINLY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER STABILIZING WHAT WAS ALREADY EXPECTED TO BE A WEAKLY BUOYANT AIRMASS. A WEAKER CONVECTIVE SIGNAL CAN BE SEEN IN THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF NMM AND ARW SIMULATIONS AS WELL...WITH THE LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAVING DOWNGRADED THE MARGINAL OVER CENTRAL NC TO GENERAL THUNDER. EXPECT A NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT...WITH ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER CELL STILL A POSSIBILITY. HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON BREAKS IN CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80S EAST. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY EVENING WILL SUPPORT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY... DOWNSTREAM OF A PAIR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL US... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTING FROM THE GULF NEWD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL LIFT ATOP THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE BACK ACROSS...WITH BULK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK QUITE CHALLENGING WITH A MOSTLY DRY CAD AIRMASS IN PLACE ON THE NORTH-COOL SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHALLOW OVERRUNNING WILL SUPPORT STRATUS LAYER OPAQUE ENOUGH TO MODULATE DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...AND MAY NEED TO KNOCK DOWN FURTHER IF TRENDS CONTINUE. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 60S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY... SUN AND MON: A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOVE NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THE CAD AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LINGER...AT LEAST ACROSS THE FAR NW...INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ERODES IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS CAPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S NORTH...LOW 70S SOUTH. THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT WRT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN THAT REGARD HAS INCREASED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA WILL GET ON MON AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST. GENERALLY...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH AND THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MON...WITH MON NIGHT BEING DRY AND TEMPS LOWERING. MON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SE. MON NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT: A RETURN OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR MID-WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TUE AND WED. LOWS MODERATING FROM UPPER LOW 40S TUE NIGHT TO MID TO UPPER 40S WED NIGHT. THU AND FRI: ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU THROUGH FRI. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 158 AM FRIDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 50 KT LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...IN ADDITION TO A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS THROUGH MID MORNING. ANY SUB-VFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 18-21Z IN THE WEST TO 03-06Z IN THE EAST. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS HIGHEST AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT KFAY/KRWI FOR STORMS. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 12-16 KT RANGE... WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KTS. OUTLOOK: THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHALLOW OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KCP AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1153 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 RAIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO REACH THE GROUND IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA FROM THE LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH...SO BUMPED UP POPS. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AS READINGS HAVE BEEN STAYING IN THE 40S IN THAT AREA. THINK THEY SHOULD HANG ONTO MILD READINGS A BIT LONGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE EAST HAS FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 30S...BUT GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN THINK THEY WILL START TO RISE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP COMING IN SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH TOWARDS MORNING AS THE FRONT SAGS DOWN. KEPT THE THEME OF A DUSTING BY MORNING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT SO FAR OBS SITES AND WEB CAMS SHOW NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND. BETTER RETURNS TO THE WEST NORTH OF MINOT...AND PERSONAL WEATHER STATIONS SHOW SOME PRECIP GETTING TO THE GROUND. HRRR HAS ACCUMULATING PRECIP ENTERING THE FAR NORTHWEST AROUND 05Z...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL KEEP THE POPS COMING IN MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER ON TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL THINK WE SHOULD SEE SOME NICE DROPS WITH CLEAR SKIES BEFORE CLOUDS COMING IN FOR THE EAST AND WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING INTO THE NORTHWEST. WILL KEEP OUR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 NO CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON SKIES WERE STILL MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FA WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE. STILL HAVE SOME SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS OVER NORTHWEST MN. GOOD WESTERLY SFC FLOW OVER WESTERN ND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC LOW...WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 50S. THE SFC LOW IS OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY 12 FRI. A BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM THIS LOW WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS UP INTO NORTHWEST MN BY 12Z FRI...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE KDVL REGION INTO NW MN. THIS PCPN WOULD GENERALLY FALL AS SNOW WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY MORNING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD ON FRI...ENDING UP BY 00Z SAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL AGAIN OCCUR ALONG/BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...SO THEY WILL SINK FROM AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO A VALLEY CITY TO FARGO TO KPKD LINE BY 00Z SAT. TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY FRI TO CHANGE THIS PCPN FROM LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PCPN...OVER TO LIGHT RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE EXPECTED PCPN FROM THE EVENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRI (EXCEPTING THE FAR SOUTH AND SE FA)...WHICH WILL THEREFORE LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. COULD BE A LITTLE WINDY ON FRI AFTERNOON AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS TEMPS FALL FRI NIGHT THE PCPN WILL CHANGE BACK TO A MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER IN SAT MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS LOOK COOL ON SAT BUT THEY DO WARM UP A LITTLE MORE BY SUNDAY. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SFC LOW AND A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH SOME INCONSISTENCY ON THIS WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY WILL RETROGRADE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AS SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA AND INTO ONTARIO. SPLIT FLOW WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE GFS WAS A FASTER AND A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS. LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MON THROUGH THU. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 ALL SITES ARE VFR...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO KDVL. THERE SHOULD BE A DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AND A COLD FRONT COMES DOWN...ALTHOUGH EXACT PARTICULARS ARE HARD TO NAIL DOWN. HAVE CIGS GOING MVFR AS THE FRONT COMES DOWN...STARTING AROUND 11-12Z IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR MID DAY AT KFAR. SOME LOWER 3-5SM VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND SOME LOWER VIS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT WILL ADD IT AS IT GETS CLOSER. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THEN BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS IN THE BACK HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SLIGHT RECOVERY TO VFR AT SOME SITES IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...GODON LONG TERM...GODON/HOPPES AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
156 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 200 AM UPDATE... ADJUSTED POPS AND WINDS FOR SLOWER OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF FRONT. THE WIND SHIFT WAS JUST APPROACHI8NG THE OHIO RIVER AS OF 06Z. 1100 PM UPDATE... FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE MORE SPUNKY AS THEY MOVE INTO A FAVORABLE 45 KT 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR REGION...HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOW TOPS AND LACK OF LIGHTNING...THE HODOGRAPHS IN THIS AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION...BUT SO FAR DO NOT THINK ENOUGH CAPE TO WARRANT ANY RAPID INTENSIFICATION. SOME OF THE GUSTS FROM THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH RANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MAIN FOCUS FOR NEAR TERM FORECAST IS COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. ONLY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS...AND CAPE IS MINIMAL. THE NAM WHICH OFTEN RUNS HIGH ON CAPE IS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 300J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND HAS MOST OF THAT BEHIND THIS FIRST LINE -- CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. DID KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED BUT NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THIS FAR EAST. WITH DECENT FLOW IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS. PWATS POOL UP TO AROUND 1.25IN WITH THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND AS WELL...SO BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. TRIED TO SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND AND THE SECONDARY BAND WITH THE COLD FRONT...PWATS SHOWING THIS AS WELL WITH A QUICK DIP UNDER 1.0IN BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING UNTIL THIS SECONDARY BAND PASSES...BUT WITH THIS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT TIMING IS NOT IDEAL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND LINGERS THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE WISE...HELD TEMPS UP TONIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES USING A CONSENSUS BLEND...AND THE HRRR AS FAR OUT AS POSSIBLE. EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TOMORROW. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE DOMINATING FEATURE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR MOVES IN...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT GETS PUSHED SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN DURING SATURDAY ON SOUTHEAST FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY AFFECT EAST FACING SLOPES OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER NO PRECIP WITH THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SATURDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE SATURDAY...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT OUT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND MILDER NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST PROBLEM COMES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE SUNDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE DIVERGENT ON THE STRENGTH...TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. THE EURO MODEL IS MORE WRAPPED UP AND MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE OPEN AND FASTER. WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOWN BY THE MODELS...THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND FASTER SOLUTION OF THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THUS...USING GFS AS A GUIDE. I HAVE CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY DAYS END. STILL...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY FLOW TO REACH INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN LOW LANDS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE...WITH COOLER...AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY..PRECIPITATION.WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GENERATING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAVE FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SHRA...LOWERING TO MVFR IN ITS WAKE WITH THE WIND SHIFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRI...WITH MVFR IN STRATOCU AND DRIZZLE/MIST. LIGHT S SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOME LIGHT W IN ITS WAKE OVERNIGHT. STRONG S FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS TO MODERATE W BEHIND IT BY DAWN...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT W DURING THE DAY FRI. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CAT MAY GO IFR OR LOWER THAN FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 03/25/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/JW/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/JW/MZ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL STALL NEAR THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. AFTER THE LOW PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID- WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM BIRMINGHAM...RUNNING NE OVER THE INTERSECTION OF AL/GA/TN...NORTH ACROSS E. TN. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TN...WITH A PATCH OF RAIN TRACKING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC. HRRR RUNS AT 5Z AND 6Z HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY PEAKING ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT AROUND DAY BREAK...REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A FEW SHOWERS TRIGGER WITH AFTERNOON ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. A WIDER VIEW SHOWS LARGE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GOM AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL. GIVEN THE RECENT RADAR TRENDS...RUNS OF HRRR...AND LARGE SCALE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...I WILL LOWER POPS TO SCHC TO CHC OVER THE CWA TODAY. THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE UNFAVORABLE...I WILL REMOVE MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 70S EAST OF THE MTNS. TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS TO COASTAL AREAS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH THE REGION WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD YIELD LIGHT NE WINDS BY LATE TONIGHT. I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH VARYING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50S EAST OF I-85. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS TRICKY FOR SATURDAY...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A CONTINUATION OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM STILL DOES NOT TAKE THE FRONT AS FAR TO THE EAST/SOUTH AS THE OTHER MODELS...SO WHEN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS ON SATURDAY...THE OP-NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP. THIS WOULD HAPPEN AT A TIME WHEN A SURFACE HIGH IS STILL IN A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO RESULT IN A CLASSIC WEDGE. PRECIP WOULD NOT BE MUCH...BUT IT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO LOCK IN A COOL AIR MASS...MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT FARTHER EAST...AND ARE NOT NEARLY AS PRODUCTIVE WITH WEAK LIFT THAT BEGINS ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...THE SREF SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS FAVORING THE DRIER SOLUTION. PROBLEM IS...THE TREND ON THE GEFS IS FOR MORE MEMBERS TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS RAISES THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TEMP FCST...AND HAVE NUDGED THE HIGH TEMP DOWN A BIT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE KEEPING THE POP FAIRLY LOW FOR THE TIME BEING. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY PRODUCTIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO BE DEVELOPING/SPREADING NE FROM GEORGIA AT DAYBREAK. THE PRECIP PROB WILL ONLY INCREASE FROM THERE AS FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE REACH A MAXIMUM CENTERED AROUND 00Z MONDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE PRECIP PROB IS HELD IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY MAINLY BY CONSENSUS WITH NEIGHBORS...BUT SUSPECT THIS WILL BE BUMPED UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR SOME LENGTH OF TIME LATE SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE CARRIED OFF TO THE E/NE EARLY IN THE DAY. SO...PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE TN BORDER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO COME AROUND TO W/NW BY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AFFORD A SIGNIFICANT REBOUND OF TEMPS...BACK TO SOMETHING MORE THAN 5 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY IN-LINE WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...SO FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH UPPER RIDGING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THUS... EXPECT WE WIL HAVE A TURN BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARMING TREND AFTER THAT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF COMING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT AND A FRONT LAYING OUT ON THE W SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 5Z INDICATED THAT THE SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN TN AND NW GA...SLIDING STEADILY EAST. SFC OBSERVATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWED GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOW CLOUD HEIGHTS DESCENDING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LOWEST AROUND DAWN. I WILL TIME ALL TERMINALS TO DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 7Z TO 9Z. KCLT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 12Z TO 14Z...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO. RAINFALL ACROSS THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS. RADAR TRENDS AND CAMS INDICATED THAT THE BEST CHC FOR RA WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS KAVL TO HKY...BETWEEN 8Z TO 11Z. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE SW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KAVL WILL MAINTAIN A NNW WIND...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND THUS RESTRICTIONS INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z KCLT HIGH 87% HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 93% HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL MED 77% HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 82% HIGH 89% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 95% HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 93% HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
344 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THIS FRONT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 222 AM EDT FRIDAY... WEAK COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL PUSH EAST CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY UP CROSSING THE RIDGES GIVEN DRY AIR AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW BANDS OR SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNRISE MAINLY WEST. MOST PRECIP SHOULD THEN FADE OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT CROSSES PER LATEST HRRR WITH CLOUDS DECREASING CENTRAL SECTIONS AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER MOISTURE LIKELY TO LINGER OVER UPSLOPE WESTERN SECTIONS UNDER NW FLOW AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE BOUNDARY CLEARS. DESPITE THIS...STILL EXPECTING SOME SUN IN ALL SECTIONS LATER IN THE DAY GIVEN HEATING AND DRY ADVECTION. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PIEDMONT IF THE FRONT SLOWS EVEN MORE TO POP ADDED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SO INCLUDED LOW POPS THERE. OTRW CUT OUT POPS ELSEWHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE LEANING ON THE SIDE OF THE WARMER MAV MOS ESPCLY EAST GIVEN CURRENT WARM READINGS...AND IDEA THAT MOST WEAK COOL ADVECTION WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTHWEST LATER ON. FRONT SLOWS UP JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS THAT MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER EASTERN SECTIONS. ALSO FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTH/NE THIS EVENING AND THEN SE ACROSS THE SW LATE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WEDGING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THINKING THAT WILL REMAIN DRY WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP SOUTHERN SECTIONS SO TRENDING MORE PC EXCEPT CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH COOLING TO GET LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FROST HEADLINES IN FAR SW VA AT THIS POINT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH A COOL NORTHEAST WIND TO START THIS COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND OVERRUNNING CIRRUS DURING THE AFTERNOON...KEPT SATURDAY TEMPERATURES UNDER GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND ALONG WITH INCREASE LOW CLOUDS...WILL HAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE 40S AND ABOVE GUIDANCE. SUNDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY FOR TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE DISPLAYING A SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE VA/NC COAST AND HAVE REMOVED THE WEDGE FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THIS REFLECTION AND PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA WILL ENHANCE THIS WEDGE SUNDAY. FURTHERMORE...WITH NO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE WEDGE...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MET...WHICH IS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE MODELS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNIFORM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE WEDGE MAY ERODE SOME TOWARDS THE BLUEFIELD AND MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AREAS TO POSSIBLE HIT 70F SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THE WEDGE OUT OF THE REGION. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS BEGIN TO PHASE ON MONDAY AS BOTH LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES MERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE WEDGE BREAKS AND COLD AIR DOES NOT START MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY... MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TROF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS A SHORT WAVE PUSHING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC WAS FAVORING THE TIMING AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY FOR RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AND INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1237 AM EDT FRIDAY... CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER APPEARS GIVEN LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE THAT MOST CIGS WILL STAY VFR UNTIL LATE WHEN LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VA FALL INTO MVFR OR WORSE BY DAYBREAK. WHILE LOCATIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP THE CERTAINTY DECREASES BEYOND THE BLUE RIDGE. MAINTAINED SHORT PERIOD OF PRECIP AT KDAN AND KLYH BASED ON LATEST RUN OF HRRR BUT LEFT MOSTLY VFR VSBYS GIVEN LIGHT NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND THOSE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LINGERING UPSLOPE MOISTURE THERE. COULD SEE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE KDAN- KLYH CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEHIND THE LINE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS BUT STILL SOME CHANCE FOR GUSTS TOM0RROW IN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD WORK TO SLOWLY RETURN MOST SITES WITH LOW CIGS BACK TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD BRING A THREAT FOR SUB-VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY. WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHT AND PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY... MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE AND EVEN HIGHER WHERE SHOWERS PASS ACROSS. HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH IN MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS COULD AGAIN LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES AND WINDS TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING TRAJECTORY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD ONLY BE 20 TO 25 MPH AT MOST JUST IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...HUMIDITY COULD AGAIN DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IF NOT LOWER IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A BIT MORE RAINFALL ALONG WITH COOLER CONDITIONS UNDER CLOUD COVER LONGER WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE FIRE THREAT TO SOME DEGREE. THEREFORE GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE TODAY...PLAN TO ONLY HEADLINE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL LOW HUMIDITY...AND SOME GUSTINESS IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITHOUT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NOW PENDING COORDINATION THIS MORNING. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/PH NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...JH/JR/PH FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
100 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THIS FRONT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY... RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING THE HRRR QUITE WELL...WHICH SHOWS A CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND OF THE FRONTAL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. THE FIRST LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BEFORE EVEN REACHING THE I-77 CORRIDOR WITH REALLY NO THUNDER MAKING IT MUCH PAST MIDDLE TN WITH THAT ACTIVITY. TWO OTHER NARROW LINES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FORMED ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT BACK IN EASTERN KY LIFTING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...ALSO PER HRRR. BOTH THE HRRR AND NCEP WRF SHOW VERY LITTLE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT THE RNK CWA. A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP IN THE GSP/CLT AREA AND TRANSLATE NORTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHICH MAY BE THE ONLY WAY PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO THAT PART OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SIGNS...HOWEVER...THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY HANG UP SOME ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST AND THE BEST SUPPORT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS COULD DELAY CLEARING AND PERHAPS EVEN RESULT IN LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE PIEDMONT AS LATE AS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO POPS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT. FOR THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN...HAVE GREATLY REDUCED POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER PER MESO-MODEL RUNS IS LOW AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS DEFINITELY SUPPORT LESS POPS/QPF AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURE IS BASICALLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED...SO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE INCREASED MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT...WILL REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER THREAT SO THAT NO HEADLINES PERTAINING TO FIRE WEATHER ARE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY... AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY... UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO NOT PUSH THE COOLER AIR MASS COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT VERY FAR SOUTH AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUITE A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT AND MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WEDGES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY WHICH BRINGS THE WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE. SATURDAYS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER MAXIMUMS...SIMILAR TO THE MET GUIDANCE. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SUNDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE AFTER 00Z MON/7PM SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY... MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TROF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ECMWF BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD NEW JERSEY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC WAS FAVORING THE TIMING AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY FOR RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AND INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1237 AM EDT FRIDAY... CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER APPEARS GIVEN LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE THAT MOST CIGS WILL STAY VFR UNTIL LATE WHEN LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VA FALL INTO MVFR OR WORSE BY DAYBREAK. WHILE LOCATIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP THE CERTAINTY DECREASES BEYOND THE BLUE RIDGE. MAINTAINED SHORT PERIOD OF PRECIP AT KDAN AND KLYH BASED ON LATEST RUN OF HRRR BUT LEFT MOSTLY VFR VSBYS GIVEN LIGHT NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND THOSE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LINGERING UPSLOPE MOISTURE THERE. COULD SEE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE KDAN- KLYH CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEHIND THE LINE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS BUT STILL SOME CHANCE FOR GUSTS TOM0RROW IN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD WORK TO SLOWLY RETURN MOST SITES WITH LOW CIGS BACK TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD BRING A THREAT FOR SUB-VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY. WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHT AND PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY... RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 800 PM. ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH...PERHAPS EVEN LESS THAN 1/10 INCH IN MOST AREAS...CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WIND COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT. SO WHILE A HEADLINE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY FOR SUCH IS LOW AT THIS TIME. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PH NEAR TERM...PH/RAB SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...JH/JR/PH FIRE WEATHER...PM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 248 AM PDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Rain and snow showers can be expected today over the for eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Conditions will dry out on Saturday, but it looks to be short-lived as another front brings more precipitation by early Sunday morning and into Monday. A return to dry weather can be expected by middle of next week with warming temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight...Unstable northwest flow has become established over the region as upper level heights build over the Gulf of Alaska and a strong northwesterly upper level jet has drifted into the western part of Washington. This leaves the entire forecast area on the cold and unstable side of the jet, at least for the morning. Meanwhile the latest water vapor imagery was detecting a shortwave trough dropping southeast from around Kelowna BC. This feature was well handled by the short-range models all which take it into central Washington by late morning and then into east-central Oregon by afternoon. Deep ascent ahead of the feature looks quite favorable resulting in a blossoming of shower activity through the morning. The atmosphere near the Cascades is not as favorable to ascent due to shallower instability and some downslope flow in the lee of the crest. So we expect most of the showers to occur over the eastern third of Washington and much of the Panhandle. Northwest flow through the 850-700 mb layer is generally conducive to the best shower activity over the southern Idaho Panhandle, including the Clearwater Mountains and Camas Prairie, as well as over the Blue Mountains in SE Washington. The current batch of winter weather advisories for the Camas Prairie and central Panhandle Mountains looks plausible and will allow to continue. Based on the potential instability combined with the deep ascent some of the showers could get rather intense however they should be rapid movers thus preventing widespread significant snow from occurring. Nonetheless training of showers could occur over these areas and it wouldn`t be terribly surprising to get a few reports in excess of three inches over the Camas Prairie and a bit more over the mountains. Currently the winter weather advisory for snow is through 11am which is when we will see the best lifting ahead of the shortwave trough, however if the HRRR is correct we will see the shower threat continuing into the afternoon, with snow levels still low enough to bring snow to much of the Camas Prairie and the central Panhandle Mountains. For tonight the activity will taper off fairly rapidly as the shortwave departs the region and is replaced by the offshore ridge. Saturday and Saturday night...Saturday will be a dry day across the entire forecast area care of the upper level ridge. However its drying presence won`t last long as the next moist occluded front moves into the region. This front is moving slightly faster than previously forecast and will likely nudge into the Cascades late in the evening and then push toward the Washington- Idaho border toward morning. This system will have quite a bit more moisture than the current system and should bring some light precipitation to much of central Washington. The precipitation type could be difficult to determine depending on how quickly it arrives. The later or slower it arrives the better chances we will see for snow falling in the valleys. For now we are guessing there won`t be much cooling based increasing cloud cover during the late afternoon and evening. However if that notion changes we will need to lower snow levels lower than the 2500-3000 feet we forecast for the Methow Valley, Okanogan Valley and Republic area. Precipitation amounts are too light to consider any winter highlights at this time. fx Sunday and Monday: Upper level trough dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will impact the region on Sunday. Models have trended a bit faster for the onset of precipitation. By morning valley rain and mountain snow will already be moving into eastern WA and north ID. Snow levels will be 3000-4000 ft with accumulations expected at Stevens and Lookout Pass. Stevens could see several inches of snow with Lookout seeing 1-2 inches possible. Winds will increase from the southwest after the front passes through Sunday afternoon. Precipitation will quickly move out of the area by late afternoon/early evening. Sunday night and Monday showers will be possible as the low sits over the region. Tuesday through Friday: The cutoff low moves south into Nevada as the ridge builds builds off the west coast. The ridge will then flop over across the Pac NW and provide north to northeasterly flow through Wednesday. This will keep the winds elevated in the 10-20 mph range with occasional gusts to 30 mph. We dry out and daytime temperatures Tue/Wed will be near average and by Thur/Fri they will be above average. Overnight lows will be around average for this time of the year. /Nisbet && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The region will be in an unstable northwest flow, with a disturbance riding through to keep a threat of showers alive through at least midday Friday. Occasional MVFR cigs are possible with any showers that happen over the TAF sites, with LCL IFR cigs possible especially toward PUW. Early tonight the main risk will be near PUW/LWS then redevelop around GEG to COE after 08-10Z with that incoming disturbance. Some that may fall as snow or a rain/snow mix, with the best risk of snow coming around PUW. The threat will then decrease behind that disturbance, except near the mountains and PUW/LWS. The entire region will dry out Friday evening. /J. Cote` && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 49 33 52 35 48 32 / 20 0 0 20 90 20 Coeur d`Alene 48 32 51 33 47 31 / 30 10 0 20 90 30 Pullman 46 32 52 34 48 31 / 70 0 0 20 80 20 Lewiston 52 34 57 38 54 35 / 60 0 0 20 60 20 Colville 55 31 55 32 50 31 / 20 0 0 20 80 20 Sandpoint 48 31 49 31 46 32 / 40 10 0 10 90 30 Kellogg 44 30 47 30 43 30 / 70 10 0 10 90 40 Moses Lake 58 33 59 37 56 32 / 10 0 0 40 40 0 Wenatchee 56 34 59 37 53 35 / 10 0 0 50 30 10 Omak 58 33 57 35 52 34 / 10 0 0 60 80 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Central Panhandle Mountains-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1107 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .Near Term [Through Today]... An abundance of rain and embedded thunderstorms continues to stream into the area from the southwest, just ahead of a surface cold front. This is generally expected to continue through the remainder of the late morning and into the afternoon, before tapering off a bit in the late afternoon and evening as the LLJ weakens and pivots to the east. PoPs and QPF were bumped up slightly given the widespread nature of the rain. With that in mind, and the dense cloud cover across the region, we also reduced high temperatures today into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. The 12Z Tallahassee sounding and objective RAP analysis do show some moderately steep mid-level lapse rates around 6.5 C/km which are currently supporting some modest elevated instability. One storm already produced quarter size hail near Panama City around sunrise, and while storm intensity has recently decreased, we can`t rule out one or two additional strong-severe storms. If they were to occur, large hail would be the main threat. && .Prev Discussion [703 AM EDT]... .Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... This periods will be quite unsettled and confidence is increasing that a flood threat will develop over the weekend. The front will stall about half way across the forecast area tonight and remain in place on Saturday before lifting back to the north. Forcing for ascent will increase on Saturday with likely PoPs across most of the forecast area. The potential for heavy rain is even greater on Sunday and PoPs are now categorical across much of the forecast area on that day. While isolated strong to severe storms could occur this weekend (SPC does show a marginal risk for severe on Sunday), the primary threat is definitely pivoting toward flooding. See the hydro section below for a discussion on QPF. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... Drier air will finally arrive on Monday when a cold front finally sweeps all the deep-layer moisture to the east. After a couple of dry and seasonable days, PoPs will return to the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday as the next frontal system approaches. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Saturday] MVFR CIGS prevail from ABY to ECP this morning but may improve slightly as thunderstorms develop along the coast and along the front over the next few hours. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR this afternoon, but the guidance suggests that another round of low CIGS and vsbys will be possible Saturday morning. .Marine... Winds will remain onshore through the weekend and below headline criteria. A westerly wind shift is expected with a cold frontal passage on Monday with offshore winds in place from Monday night into Tuesday. .Fire Weather... No red flag conditions are expected for the next several days. .Hydrology... We could easily see a couple of inches of rain on Saturday. When combined with what we saw yesterday and expect today, this should prime the area for what appears to be the day with the greatest potential for flooding rains, Sunday. The official forecast calls for widespread 2-inch totals on Sunday with three-day storm totals of 3-4 inches. However, the latest ECAM run shows mean storm-total rainfall around 6 inches across the northern half of the forecast area with maximum totals up to a foot in some members. If we continue to see persistence in these QPF totals, we would need to put out a flash flood watch at some point. If rainfall totals are on the higher end of what some of the CAMs are showing and fall across the northern half of the HSA, we`d also be dealing with another prolonged episode of river flooding. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 69 65 77 67 76 / 70 60 80 40 90 Panama City 69 63 72 67 72 / 80 60 80 50 90 Dothan 68 58 76 65 73 / 60 20 70 70 90 Albany 67 60 76 65 74 / 80 30 70 60 90 Valdosta 71 64 76 65 77 / 70 40 80 50 90 Cross City 72 67 80 67 80 / 60 50 60 20 50 Apalachicola 69 65 74 68 73 / 80 60 60 30 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay- Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...WOOL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
657 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE SUNRISE UPDATE. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING...THEN STALL OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA AS ITS SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL UPSTREAM IMPULSES THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTERACT WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE THAT DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING QLCS TO THE SOUTH LATE THURSDAY EVENING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE COAST MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS NEAR 60 PERCENT SEEMS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT COVERAGE AND TIMING INCREASES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LATEST TIMING NOTED IN THE VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SETS...WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S FOR ALL BUT FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE MID 70S LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION IS SLOWER TO FORM OR IF TEMPERATURES WARM QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE...THEN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S COULD OCCUR. MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS YIELD MODEST INSTABILITY TODAY WITH SBCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KT COUPLED WITH CALCULATED DCAPES 700-950 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT LIKELY ATTM...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...IF HIGHS CAN WARM TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THAT AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... TONIGHT...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MEANDERS EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY ENTER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...SUGGESTING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD POP UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S. SATURDAY...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT IN ITS LOCATION COULD LEAD TO LARGE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY...PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RIGHT NOW THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SAVANNAH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BE MUCH HIGHER IF THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND WE GET MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A DELUGE OF SHORTWAVES LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE VORT ENERGY COMBINED WITH INCREASING JET DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING PWATS WILL YIELD GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. BUMPED UP THE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TO REFLECT THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL PUSH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO JUST OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS US. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH STILL WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE LOW-END MVFR CIGS GETTING INTO KSAV JUST AFTER SUNRISE. WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SHOWERS/TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT POSSIBLE IMPACTS AT BOTH TERMINALS...ROUGHLY 19-22Z AT KSAV AND 21-00Z AT KCHS. WILL CARRY TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR VSBYS IN TSRA TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY THIS FAR OUT. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS RADAR/MESOSCALE TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO A FRONT STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. VFR IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .MARINE... TODAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA. LOW-LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT WINDS 15-20 KT...EXCEPT NEAR 15 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEGS. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT MEANDERS INTO THE FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SPEEDS LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONT STALLS OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SN YDAY OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA. THE INCOMING AIRMASS ABOVE ASSOCIATED SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM JAMES BAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RATHER DRY PER THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS...WHERE THE PWATS WERE GENERALLY ABOUT 0.20 INCH /ABOUT 65 PCT OF NORMAL/. ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS LINGER OVER THE FAR ERN CWA...THE COMBINATION OF THE LLVL ACYC FLOW/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS RESULTING IN MOCLR SKIES W TO NW MN...WHERE SOME MID AND HI CLDS ARE PRESENT IN THE WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF A PAIR OF SHRTWVS...ONE MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS/ FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPR MI HAVE FALLEN AS LO AS THE SINGLE NUMBERS EARLY THIS MRNG. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY UNDER PASSSING HI PRES RDG AND THEN POPS/PTYPE LATE TNGT AS THE WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM SHRTWVS FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING RDG INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS. TODAY...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM HI/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE CWA FM THE W...THE VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS WL ENSURE DRY WX. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTING OVER LK HURON LATE IN THE DAY IS FCST TO ADVECT SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS AND LIFT H85 TEMPS TO ARND 0C BY 00Z SAT. EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 40S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LKS...MAINLY LK MI. TNGT...MODELS SHOW SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DPVA AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SRN SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS /H825-625/ MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA OVERNGT AS SFC LO PRES TROF/COLD FNT MOVES INTO WRN LK SUP BY 12Z SAT. HOW QUICKLY THIS DYNAMIC SUPPORT CAN OVERCOME THE LLVL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE PCPN IS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES SOMEWHAT SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THUS BREAKS PCPN OUT A LITTLE FASTER... BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS THAT WL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA... WL TEND TOWARD THE SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM/ LOCAL WRF-ARW. PTYPE FCST IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...BUT FCST THERMAL FIELDS SUG A MIX OF RA AND SN WL BE PSBL. CONCERN IS LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR COULD ALLOW FOR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LOWER WBLB TEMPS AOB 32F. IF PCPN IS IN THE FORM OF RA...SOME FREEZING RA COULD OCCUR. THE GOOD NEWS IS QPF THRU 12Z SAT WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...SO ANY SN/ICE ACCUM WL BE MINIMAL. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 549 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE NRN STREAM DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES...WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING AS A SRN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS WEEKEND WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALONG/AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES WILL ALLOW PCPN TO SLOWLY EXPAND FROM WRN UPPER MI SAT MORNING INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE SAT AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AFTER INITIAL PUSH OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND BETTER 285-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT EARLY SAT MORNING MODELS SUGGEST WEAK FORCING DURING DAY ON SAT UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY LEAD TO LULL IN PCPN. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES STILL INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF -SN/LIGHT FZRA EARLY SAT...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF...BUT BY LATE SAT MORNING/EARLY SAT AFTERNOON ANY LIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE IN FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST PLACES. ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE FROM NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ASSOC DEEP Q-LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND INCREASING 285-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING PCPN CHCS BY SAT EVENING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WOULD FAVOR THE WEST HALF FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS AND THUS LIKELY POPS FOR SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP WITH IDEA OF HIGHER CHC POPS EAST HALF. PTYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS NAM FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PCPN POSSIBLY STAYING MORE RAIN OVER THE FCST AREA THRU SAT NIGHT...BUT YET MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD INDICATE PCPN CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW WEST HALF LATE SAT NIGHT WITH A SNOW/RAIN MIX EAST HALF. WL SIDE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...BUT COULD EASILY SEE WARMER NAM VERIFYING SAT NIGHT IF TEMPS REACH INTO THE 40S DURING DAY ON SAT AND THEN THICKER CLOUDS ROLL IN TOWARD EVENING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH. SUN-TUE...AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN DEPARTS OVER THE EAST SUN MORNING WITH EXITING LOW PRES AREA AND ASSOC TROUGH...EXPECT CLEARING AND DRYING FROM WEST DURING DAY ON SUN WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WEAK NRN STREAM SHRTWVS WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN. INCREASING WAA AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF WARMER AIR INTO UPPER MI. HOWEVER...SE FLOW AT SFC WILL TEMPER WARMING...CONFINING WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS TO MAINLY WRN INTERIOR. WED-THU...SW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL TROUGH LIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR PCPN WED INTO THU. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE INCRSG HI/MID CLDS INTO THIS EVNG...LLVL DRY AIR WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST THE EARLY MRNG HRS ON SAT. AS A LO PRES TROF APRCHS FM THE W...SOME RA/SN WL ARRIVE AT IWD/CMX AFTER 06Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT IWD/CMX...WITH IFR CONDITIONS PSBL AT CMX TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WHEN THE PTYPE WL CHANGE MAINLY TO SN AT THAT SITE. SINCE THE PCPN WL STAY W OF SAW THRU 12Z SAT...EXPECT VFR WX TO PREVAIL AT THAT LOCATION. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE S AND GRADUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS TONIGHT UNDER A BIT TIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THRU THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AHEAD OF A HI PRES BUILDING INTO NW ONTARIO. AS THIS HI CENTER MOVES TOWARD THE AREA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. A STRONGER S-SE WIND UP TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP ON TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE HI CENTER TO THE E. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...VOSS AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
550 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SN YDAY OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA. THE INCOMING AIRMASS ABOVE ASSOCIATED SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM JAMES BAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RATHER DRY PER THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS...WHERE THE PWATS WERE GENERALLY ABOUT 0.20 INCH /ABOUT 65 PCT OF NORMAL/. ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS LINGER OVER THE FAR ERN CWA...THE COMBINATION OF THE LLVL ACYC FLOW/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS RESULTING IN MOCLR SKIES W TO NW MN...WHERE SOME MID AND HI CLDS ARE PRESENT IN THE WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF A PAIR OF SHRTWVS...ONE MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS/ FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPR MI HAVE FALLEN AS LO AS THE SINGLE NUMBERS EARLY THIS MRNG. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY UNDER PASSSING HI PRES RDG AND THEN POPS/PTYPE LATE TNGT AS THE WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM SHRTWVS FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING RDG INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS. TODAY...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM HI/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE CWA FM THE W...THE VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS WL ENSURE DRY WX. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTING OVER LK HURON LATE IN THE DAY IS FCST TO ADVECT SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS AND LIFT H85 TEMPS TO ARND 0C BY 00Z SAT. EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 40S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LKS...MAINLY LK MI. TNGT...MODELS SHOW SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DPVA AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SRN SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS /H825-625/ MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA OVERNGT AS SFC LO PRES TROF/COLD FNT MOVES INTO WRN LK SUP BY 12Z SAT. HOW QUICKLY THIS DYNAMIC SUPPORT CAN OVERCOME THE LLVL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE PCPN IS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES SOMEWHAT SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THUS BREAKS PCPN OUT A LITTLE FASTER... BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS THAT WL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA... WL TEND TOWARD THE SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM/ LOCAL WRF-ARW. PTYPE FCST IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...BUT FCST THERMAL FIELDS SUG A MIX OF RA AND SN WL BE PSBL. CONCERN IS LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR COULD ALLOW FOR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LOWER WBLB TEMPS AOB 32F. IF PCPN IS IN THE FORM OF RA...SOME FREEZING RA COULD OCCUR. THE GOOD NEWS IS QPF THRU 12Z SAT WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...SO ANY SN/ICE ACCUM WL BE MINIMAL. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 549 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE NRN STREAM DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES...WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING AS A SRN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS WEEKEND WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALONG/AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES WILL ALLOW PCPN TO SLOWLY EXPAND FROM WRN UPPER MI SAT MORNING INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE SAT AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AFTER INITIAL PUSH OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND BETTER 285-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT EARLY SAT MORNING MODELS SUGGEST WEAK FORCING DURING DAY ON SAT UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY LEAD TO LULL IN PCPN. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES STILL INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF -SN/LIGHT FZRA EARLY SAT...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF...BUT BY LATE SAT MORNING/EARLY SAT AFTERNOON ANY LIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE IN FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST PLACES. ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE FROM NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ASSOC DEEP Q-LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND INCREASING 285-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING PCPN CHCS BY SAT EVENING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WOULD FAVOR THE WEST HALF FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS AND THUS LIKELY POPS FOR SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP WITH IDEA OF HIGHER CHC POPS EAST HALF. PTYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS NAM FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PCPN POSSIBLY STAYING MORE RAIN OVER THE FCST AREA THRU SAT NIGHT...BUT YET MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD INDICATE PCPN CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW WEST HALF LATE SAT NIGHT WITH A SNOW/RAIN MIX EAST HALF. WL SIDE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...BUT COULD EASILY SEE WARMER NAM VERIFYING SAT NIGHT IF TEMPS REACH INTO THE 40S DURING DAY ON SAT AND THEN THICKER CLOUDS ROLL IN TOWARD EVENING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH. SUN-TUE...AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN DEPARTS OVER THE EAST SUN MORNING WITH EXITING LOW PRES AREA AND ASSOC TROUGH...EXPECT CLEARING AND DRYING FROM WEST DURING DAY ON SUN WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WEAK NRN STREAM SHRTWVS WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN. INCREASING WAA AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF WARMER AIR INTO UPPER MI. HOWEVER...SE FLOW AT SFC WILL TEMPER WARMING...CONFINING WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS TO MAINLY WRN INTERIOR. WED-THU...SW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL TROUGH LIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR PCPN WED INTO THU. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE S AND GRADUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS TONIGHT UNDER A BIT TIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THRU THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AHEAD OF A HI PRES BUILDING INTO NW ONTARIO. AS THIS HI CENTER MOVES TOWARD THE AREA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. A STRONGER S-SE WIND UP TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP ON TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE HI CENTER TO THE E. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...VOSS AVIATION...07 MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
947 AM MDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .UPDATE... COLD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. COLD AIR ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW...COLDER SURFACE AIR AND WEAK ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH...PRODUCING AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING. REPORTS OF 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE COME IN...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE BULL MOUNTAINS. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR COVERAGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE HRRR SINKS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH AND HANGS IT UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS RED LODGE COULD GET MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY...BUT THE THOUGHT OF WORKING AGAINST A MARCH SUN ANGLE...SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...IF THE SNOW SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING...MAY BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH ACCUMULATIONS THERE. TWH && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A BACKDOOR FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA BY NOON. A FEW AREAS OF WEAK VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG WITH EITHER THE FRONT NOR THE VORTICITY AREAS. UPSTREAM RADARS DO SHOW AREAS OF PRECIP SINKING SOUTH. MODELS PAINT QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE I HAVE PLACED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW THIS MORNING WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. ALTHOUGH QG FORCING IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG...LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP TODAY SO SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR BURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER HILLS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ANY CASE...THIS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY THE LESS TRAVELED ROADSACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE BY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MOSTLY ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTA BORDERS AND AREA MOUNTAINS. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ABOUT 50 DEGREES. HOOLEY .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU... ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER SPRING STORM SYSTEM PROGGED TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FROM MONDAY THROUGH PART OF WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING...AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS BECOME UNSETTLED STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AS A TROF OVER WESTERN CONUS FORMS CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEPENING AND DIGGING SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IMPROVING SNOW POTENTIAL INTO WESTERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...AS DIFFLUENT FLOW SHIFTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. PRECIP CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THINK THAT MOST INTENSE PRECIP MAY FALL TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL ZONES AS BEST FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. TIMING VARIES A BIT ON THE SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION...WITH ECMWF EXITING MORE QUICKLY AND LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION DRY DURING THE DAY WED. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR WED, HAVE LOWER CHANCE POPS THEN. CURRENTLY THE EXPECTED TEMPS LOOK BORDERLINE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...MEANING THAT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE LIMITED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS DUE TO STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE. HOWEVER...IF SNOWFALL RATES ARE HIGH...ACCUMULATION ON THE GROUND COULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY. AND FOR THU...A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS A QUICK-MOVER WITH LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS COMPARED TO WHAT MAY FALL FROM THE TUE-TUE NIGHT SYSTEM. RMS/HOOLEY && .AVIATION... SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTH. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED TODAY. GILSTAD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 042 023/050 031/059 035/048 033/044 026/039 023/042 7/W 20/U 00/U 24/R 46/O 64/O 23/W LVM 040 018/049 029/054 030/042 023/040 022/035 017/041 8/W 40/U 01/N 46/R 56/O 66/S 23/W HDN 043 020/052 022/061 030/052 034/048 028/041 022/042 7/W 20/U 00/U 12/R 46/O 64/O 23/W MLS 040 022/051 028/062 031/058 037/051 029/043 024/042 7/J 10/U 00/U 02/R 25/R 53/O 22/W 4BQ 042 019/047 023/061 028/059 035/051 029/041 022/041 7/W 30/U 00/U 01/B 25/R 65/O 23/W BHK 036 015/044 025/057 028/055 033/047 029/039 022/039 8/J 11/U 00/U 01/N 24/R 54/O 22/W SHR 041 018/046 021/056 027/053 031/044 026/037 017/038 6/W 41/U 00/U 12/R 46/O 66/O 33/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT ALONG AND WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY... DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. ATTENDANT TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MTNS... WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY STRONG WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE 50KT LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING OF THE FRONT FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN A DUD SO FAR EAST OF THE MTNS. MAY STILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK THROUGH DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOME WEAK ELEVATED FINALLY DEVELOPS. THE LLJ JET SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING WITH TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING... FROM 21-00Z IN THE WEST TO 06-09Z IN THE EAST...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR TREND WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT CERTAINLY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER STABILIZING WHAT WAS ALREADY EXPECTED TO BE A WEAKLY BUOYANT AIRMASS. A WEAKER CONVECTIVE SIGNAL CAN BE SEEN IN THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF NMM AND ARW SIMULATIONS AS WELL...WITH THE LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAVING DOWNGRADED THE MARGINAL OVER CENTRAL NC TO GENERAL THUNDER. EXPECT A NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT...WITH ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER CELL STILL A POSSIBILITY. HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON BREAKS IN CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80S EAST. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY EVENING WILL SUPPORT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY... DOWNSTREAM OF A PAIR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL US... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTING FROM THE GULF NEWD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL LIFT ATOP THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE BACK ACROSS...WITH BULK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK QUITE CHALLENGING WITH A MOSTLY DRY CAD AIRMASS IN PLACE ON THE NORTH-COOL SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHALLOW OVERRUNNING WILL SUPPORT STRATUS LAYER OPAQUE ENOUGH TO MODULATE DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...AND MAY NEED TO KNOCK DOWN FURTHER IF TRENDS CONTINUE. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 60S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY... SUN AND MON: A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOVE NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THE CAD AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LINGER...AT LEAST ACROSS THE FAR NW...INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ERODES IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS CAPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S NORTH...LOW 70S SOUTH. THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT WRT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN THAT REGARD HAS INCREASED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA WILL GET ON MON AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST. GENERALLY...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH AND THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MON...WITH MON NIGHT BEING DRY AND TEMPS LOWERING. MON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SE. MON NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT: A RETURN OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR MID-WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TUE AND WED. LOWS MODERATING FROM UPPER LOW 40S TUE NIGHT TO MID TO UPPER 40S WED NIGHT. THU AND FRI: ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU THROUGH FRI. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 50 KT LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...IN ADDITION TO A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS THROUGH MID MORNING. ANY SUB-VFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 18-21Z IN THE WEST TO 03-06Z IN THE EAST. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS HIGHEST AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT KFAY/KRWI FOR STORMS. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 12-16 KT RANGE... WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KTS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COULD RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SOUTHERLY UPGLIDE SETS IN ATOP LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OUTLOOK: THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHALLOW OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KCP AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1058 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRINGING A COOLER AIRMASS TO END THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MY FAR EASTERN ZONES AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ON A GUSTY WEST WIND. HRRR KEEPS THE REGION BASICALLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SO I BACKED OFF ON THE POPS RATHER DRASTICALLY. THE TYPICAL POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUD SHIELD WILL KEEP WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SEEING THE BRIGHTEST SKIES AND MORE OF A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW WITH THE TENDENCY FOR CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. OVER SERN ZONES WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THU WARM TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... DRY COOL AIR MASS OVERSPREADS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. STUBBORN CLOUDS WILL BREAK OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SEES MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY FOG SATURDAY MORNING AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD BY 12Z. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE`VE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHEAST. SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING OVER PA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PREVENT UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS FROM REACHING THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAURELS...BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY MODEST RIDGING AND A RETURN TO SWLY MEAN FLOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES ENEWD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE N ATLANTIC BY 28/12Z. A BROAD AREA OF RAIN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WX INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS STILL WANTS TO END EASTER WEEKEND ON A WET NOTE BY BRINGING RAIN INTO WESTERN PA BY SUNDAY EVENING. ABOVE AVERAGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD STILL EXISTS CONCERNING THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WPC SUGGESTS LEANING SOMEWHAT AWAY FROM THE SLOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD WITH TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE UPSTREAM ANOMALOUS RIDGE/TROUGH EVOLUTION FAVORING A MODERATELY PROGRESSIVE MEAN FLOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE FAST GFS/MEDIUM CMC/SLOW ECMWF RESULTS IN A CONSENSUS FCST MAX POP CENTERED ON MONDAY 3/28. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS WILL HOLD ONTO THE MVFR/IFR INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE 18-21Z TIMEFRAME. ELSEWHERE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS IN THE 2000-3000` RANGE TO BLEED OUT OF THE WESTERN AREAS FOR A TIME THROUGH MID DAY. A GUSTY WEST WIND UP TO 20-25KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WEST. MON...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS. TUE...NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NORMAL SNOWFALL IN WILLIAMSPORT FOR JUST THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MARCH IS 5.9 INCHES. THIS NUMBER CLIMBS JUST A BIT BY THE EOM. ONLY 5.9 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON THERE. SO THE ENTIRE 2015-16 WINTER CAN/T BEAT WHAT WOULD FALL IN AN AVERAGE MARCH. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...DANGELO CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1057 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL STALL NEAR THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. AFTER THE LOW PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID- WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1050 AM EDT FRIDAY...ALL IN ALL THE FCST CONTINUES TO PAN OUT THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATES TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NE GA. LIGHT/MODERATE SW FLOW REMAINS PREVELANT ACROSS THESE AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONTAL AXIS...WHERE SCT/BKN LOW STRATUS HAS PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SAID STRATUS WILL LIKELY DAMPEN MAX TEMPS A BIT ALONG/SOUTH OF I85 THEREFORE BLENDED IN LATEST BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS SUCH A TREND WITH THE HIGHS BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. OTHERWISE...OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT AS WELL AS THE EASTERN UPSTATE AS 12Z 4KM NAM SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SOME MODEST CAPE GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A 3-4 DEGREES INVERSION IN PLACE THUS CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT BEST REGARDING FRONTAL FORCING BREAKING SAID CAP. OTHERWISE...LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS FOR THIS UPDATE. AS OF 330 AM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM BIRMINGHAM...RUNNING NE OVER THE INTERSECTION OF AL/GA/TN...NORTH ACROSS E. TN. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TN...WITH A PATCH OF RAIN TRACKING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC. HRRR RUNS AT 5Z AND 6Z HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY PEAKING ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT AROUND DAY BREAK...REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A FEW SHOWERS TRIGGER WITH AFTERNOON ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. A WIDER VIEW SHOWS LARGE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GOM AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL. GIVEN THE RECENT RADAR TRENDS...RUNS OF HRRR...AND LARGE SCALE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...I WILL LOWER POPS TO SCHC TO CHC OVER THE CWA TODAY. THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE UNFAVORABLE...I WILL REMOVE MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 70S EAST OF THE MTNS. TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS TO COASTAL AREAS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH THE REGION WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD YIELD LIGHT NE WINDS BY LATE TONIGHT. I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH VARYING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50S EAST OF I-85. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS TRICKY FOR SATURDAY...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A CONTINUATION OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM STILL DOES NOT TAKE THE FRONT AS FAR TO THE EAST/SOUTH AS THE OTHER MODELS...SO WHEN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS ON SATURDAY...THE OP-NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP. THIS WOULD HAPPEN AT A TIME WHEN A SURFACE HIGH IS STILL IN A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO RESULT IN A CLASSIC WEDGE. PRECIP WOULD NOT BE MUCH...BUT IT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO LOCK IN A COOL AIR MASS...MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT FARTHER EAST...AND ARE NOT NEARLY AS PRODUCTIVE WITH WEAK LIFT THAT BEGINS ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...THE SREF SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS FAVORING THE DRIER SOLUTION. PROBLEM IS...THE TREND ON THE GEFS IS FOR MORE MEMBERS TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS RAISES THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TEMP FCST...AND HAVE NUDGED THE HIGH TEMP DOWN A BIT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE KEEPING THE POP FAIRLY LOW FOR THE TIME BEING. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY PRODUCTIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO BE DEVELOPING/SPREADING NE FROM GEORGIA AT DAYBREAK. THE PRECIP PROB WILL ONLY INCREASE FROM THERE AS FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE REACH A MAXIMUM CENTERED AROUND 00Z MONDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE PRECIP PROB IS HELD IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY MAINLY BY CONSENSUS WITH NEIGHBORS...BUT SUSPECT THIS WILL BE BUMPED UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR SOME LENGTH OF TIME LATE SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE CARRIED OFF TO THE E/NE EARLY IN THE DAY. SO...PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE TN BORDER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO COME AROUND TO W/NW BY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AFFORD A SIGNIFICANT REBOUND OF TEMPS...BACK TO SOMETHING MORE THAN 5 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY IN-LINE WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...SO FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH UPPER RIDGING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THUS... EXPECT WE WIL HAVE A TURN BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARMING TREND AFTER THAT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF COMING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT AND A FRONT LAYING OUT ON THE W SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 10Z INDICATED THAT THE SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SLIDING STEADILY EAST. SFC OBSERVATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWED GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS...WITH PATCHY MVFR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOW CLOUD HEIGHTS REMAINING LOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LOWEST AROUND DAWN. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS INCREASINGLY FAVORING VFR CEILINGS THROUGH MORNING. RADAR TRENDS AND CAMS INDICATE THAT THE CHC FOR RAIN HAS LARGELY PASSED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE SW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...VEERING FROM THE NW DURING THE EARLY EVENING. KAVL WILL MAINTAIN A NNW WIND...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND THUS RESTRICTIONS INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z KCLT HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 80% KGSP HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% KAVL HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% KAND HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...CDG/NED SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
553 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL STALL NEAR THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. AFTER THE LOW PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID- WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... OF 550 AM...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LIKELY PEAKED AROUND AN HOUR AGO. I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCELERATE THE DECREASE OF POPS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...I WILL CUT BACK ON QPF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. OVERALL...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS APPEAR ON TRACK. AS OF 330 AM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM BIRMINGHAM...RUNNING NE OVER THE INTERSECTION OF AL/GA/TN...NORTH ACROSS E. TN. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TN...WITH A PATCH OF RAIN TRACKING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC. HRRR RUNS AT 5Z AND 6Z HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY PEAKING ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT AROUND DAY BREAK...REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A FEW SHOWERS TRIGGER WITH AFTERNOON ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. A WIDER VIEW SHOWS LARGE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GOM AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL. GIVEN THE RECENT RADAR TRENDS...RUNS OF HRRR...AND LARGE SCALE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...I WILL LOWER POPS TO SCHC TO CHC OVER THE CWA TODAY. THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE UNFAVORABLE...I WILL REMOVE MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 70S EAST OF THE MTNS. TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS TO COASTAL AREAS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH THE REGION WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD YIELD LIGHT NE WINDS BY LATE TONIGHT. I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH VARYING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50S EAST OF I-85. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS TRICKY FOR SATURDAY...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A CONTINUATION OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM STILL DOES NOT TAKE THE FRONT AS FAR TO THE EAST/SOUTH AS THE OTHER MODELS...SO WHEN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS ON SATURDAY...THE OP-NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP. THIS WOULD HAPPEN AT A TIME WHEN A SURFACE HIGH IS STILL IN A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO RESULT IN A CLASSIC WEDGE. PRECIP WOULD NOT BE MUCH...BUT IT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO LOCK IN A COOL AIR MASS...MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT FARTHER EAST...AND ARE NOT NEARLY AS PRODUCTIVE WITH WEAK LIFT THAT BEGINS ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...THE SREF SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS FAVORING THE DRIER SOLUTION. PROBLEM IS...THE TREND ON THE GEFS IS FOR MORE MEMBERS TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS RAISES THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TEMP FCST...AND HAVE NUDGED THE HIGH TEMP DOWN A BIT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE KEEPING THE POP FAIRLY LOW FOR THE TIME BEING. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY PRODUCTIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO BE DEVELOPING/SPREADING NE FROM GEORGIA AT DAYBREAK. THE PRECIP PROB WILL ONLY INCREASE FROM THERE AS FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE REACH A MAXIMUM CENTERED AROUND 00Z MONDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE PRECIP PROB IS HELD IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY MAINLY BY CONSENSUS WITH NEIGHBORS...BUT SUSPECT THIS WILL BE BUMPED UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR SOME LENGTH OF TIME LATE SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE CARRIED OFF TO THE E/NE EARLY IN THE DAY. SO...PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE TN BORDER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO COME AROUND TO W/NW BY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AFFORD A SIGNIFICANT REBOUND OF TEMPS...BACK TO SOMETHING MORE THAN 5 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY IN-LINE WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...SO FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH UPPER RIDGING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THUS... EXPECT WE WIL HAVE A TURN BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARMING TREND AFTER THAT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF COMING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT AND A FRONT LAYING OUT ON THE W SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 5Z INDICATED THAT THE SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN TN AND NW GA...SLIDING STEADILY EAST. SFC OBSERVATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWED GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOW CLOUD HEIGHTS DESCENDING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LOWEST AROUND DAWN. I WILL TIME ALL TERMINALS TO DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 7Z TO 9Z. KCLT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 12Z TO 14Z...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO. RAINFALL ACROSS THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS. RADAR TRENDS AND CAMS INDICATED THAT THE BEST CHC FOR RA WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS KAVL TO HKY...BETWEEN 8Z TO 11Z. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE SW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KAVL WILL MAINTAIN A NNW WIND...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND THUS RESTRICTIONS INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 10-16Z 16-22Z 22-04Z 04-06Z KCLT HIGH 83% HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 89% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL MED 72% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 83% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 83% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1003 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THIS FRONT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM EDT FRIDAY... AT 13Z (9 AM EDT)...A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST WEST OF LYH TO MTV AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY WERE DIMINISHING AS ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...CLEARING WAS OBSERVED ON VSBY SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF NC TO PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THIS CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE EXCEPT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS. DESPITE WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LURK IN THE VIRGINIA SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT...WITH CAPES FORECAST TO REACH 100-200 J/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AS ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR AND RAP...WHICH BOTH HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...KEPT CHC POPS IN THIS REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. FRONT SLOWS UP JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS THAT MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER EASTERN SECTIONS. ALSO FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTH/NE THIS EVENING AND THEN SE ACROSS THE SW LATE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WEDGING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THINKING THAT WILL REMAIN DRY WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP SOUTHERN SECTIONS SO TRENDING MORE PC EXCEPT CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH COOLING TO GET LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FROST HEADLINES IN FAR SW VA AT THIS POINT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH A COOL NORTHEAST WIND TO START THIS COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND OVERRUNNING CIRRUS DURING THE AFTERNOON...KEPT SATURDAY TEMPERATURES UNDER GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND ALONG WITH INCREASE LOW CLOUDS...WILL HAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE 40S AND ABOVE GUIDANCE. SUNDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY FOR TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE DISPLAYING A SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE VA/NC COAST AND HAVE REMOVED THE WEDGE FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THIS REFLECTION AND PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA WILL ENHANCE THIS WEDGE SUNDAY. FURTHERMORE...WITH NO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE WEDGE...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MET...WHICH IS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE MODELS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNIFORM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE WEDGE MAY ERODE SOME TOWARDS THE BLUEFIELD AND MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AREAS TO POSSIBLE HIT 70F SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THE WEDGE OUT OF THE REGION. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS BEGIN TO PHASE ON MONDAY AS BOTH LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES MERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE WEDGE BREAKS AND COLD AIR DOES NOT START MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY... MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TROF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS A SHORT WAVE PUSHING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC WAS FAVORING THE TIMING AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY FOR RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AND INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY... CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS PATCHY SHOWERS HEAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE BLUE RIDGE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SITES THIS MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KBCB AND PERHAPS KROA. IN ADDITION...A HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LINGERING FOG AROUND UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING. OTRW MAINTAINED SHORT PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT KDAN AND KLYH BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF HRRR BUT LEFT MOSTLY VFR VSBYS GIVEN LIGHT NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ESPCLY KBLF VICINITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LINGERING UPSLOPE MOISTURE THERE. COULD SEE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE KDAN-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY AS WELL BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEHIND THE LINE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS BUT STILL SOME CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD WORK TO SLOWLY RETURN MOST SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BACK TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF VFR BACK TO MOST SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HELPS SPILL MVFR CANOPY INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SW SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT APPEARS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BRING MVFR CIGS INTO KBCB/KROA WITH KBLF PERHAPS STAYING MVFR WITHOUT REACHING VFR LATER TODAY. THINK KLYH/KLWB HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING SCATTERED OUT WHILE KDAN MAY STAY WITH VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT THIS POINT. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MAY GET STUCK WITHIN MVFR CIGS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WEDGE SLOW TO EXIT. THIS COULD BRING SUB-VFR TO MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ALLOWING LOWER CIGS TO SCATTER OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LIKELY TO BRING A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY... MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE AND EVEN HIGHER WHERE SHOWERS PASS ACROSS. HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH IN MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 25 MPH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PRECENT. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/PH NEAR TERM...JH/PH SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AMS/RCS AVIATION...JH/JR/PH FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
706 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THIS FRONT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 222 AM EDT FRIDAY... WEAK COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL PUSH EAST CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY UP CROSSING THE RIDGES GIVEN DRY AIR AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW BANDS OR SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNRISE MAINLY WEST. MOST PRECIP SHOULD THEN FADE OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT CROSSES PER LATEST HRRR WITH CLOUDS DECREASING CENTRAL SECTIONS AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER MOISTURE LIKELY TO LINGER OVER UPSLOPE WESTERN SECTIONS UNDER NW FLOW AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE BOUNDARY CLEARS. DESPITE THIS...STILL EXPECTING SOME SUN IN ALL SECTIONS LATER IN THE DAY GIVEN HEATING AND DRY ADVECTION. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PIEDMONT IF THE FRONT SLOWS EVEN MORE TO POP ADDED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SO INCLUDED LOW POPS THERE. OTRW CUT OUT POPS ELSEWHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE LEANING ON THE SIDE OF THE WARMER MAV MOS ESPCLY EAST GIVEN CURRENT WARM READINGS...AND IDEA THAT MOST WEAK COOL ADVECTION WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTHWEST LATER ON. FRONT SLOWS UP JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS THAT MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER EASTERN SECTIONS. ALSO FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTH/NE THIS EVENING AND THEN SE ACROSS THE SW LATE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WEDGING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THINKING THAT WILL REMAIN DRY WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP SOUTHERN SECTIONS SO TRENDING MORE PC EXCEPT CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH COOLING TO GET LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FROST HEADLINES IN FAR SW VA AT THIS POINT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH A COOL NORTHEAST WIND TO START THIS COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND OVERRUNNING CIRRUS DURING THE AFTERNOON...KEPT SATURDAY TEMPERATURES UNDER GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND ALONG WITH INCREASE LOW CLOUDS...WILL HAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE 40S AND ABOVE GUIDANCE. SUNDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY FOR TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE DISPLAYING A SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE VA/NC COAST AND HAVE REMOVED THE WEDGE FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THIS REFLECTION AND PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA WILL ENHANCE THIS WEDGE SUNDAY. FURTHERMORE...WITH NO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE WEDGE...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MET...WHICH IS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE MODELS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNIFORM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE WEDGE MAY ERODE SOME TOWARDS THE BLUEFIELD AND MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AREAS TO POSSIBLE HIT 70F SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THE WEDGE OUT OF THE REGION. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS BEGIN TO PHASE ON MONDAY AS BOTH LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES MERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE WEDGE BREAKS AND COLD AIR DOES NOT START MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY... MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TROF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS A SHORT WAVE PUSHING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC WAS FAVORING THE TIMING AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY FOR RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AND INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY... CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS PATCHY SHOWERS HEAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE BLUE RIDGE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SITES THIS MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KBCB AND PERHAPS KROA. IN ADDITION...A HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LINGERING FOG AROUND UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING. OTRW MAINTAINED SHORT PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT KDAN AND KLYH BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF HRRR BUT LEFT MOSTLY VFR VSBYS GIVEN LIGHT NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ESPCLY KBLF VICINITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LINGERING UPSLOPE MOISTURE THERE. COULD SEE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE KDAN-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY AS WELL BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEHIND THE LINE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS BUT STILL SOME CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD WORK TO SLOWLY RETURN MOST SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BACK TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF VFR BACK TO MOST SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HELPS SPILL MVFR CANOPY INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SW SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT APPEARS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BRING MVFR CIGS INTO KBCB/KROA WITH KBLF PERHAPS STAYING MVFR WITHOUT REACHING VFR LATER TODAY. THINK KLYH/KLWB HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING SCATTERED OUT WHILE KDAN MAY STAY WITH VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT THIS POINT. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MAY GET STUCK WITHIN MVFR CIGS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WEDGE SLOW TO EXIT. THIS COULD BRING SUB-VFR TO MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ALLOWING LOWER CIGS TO SCATTER OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LIKELY TO BRING A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY... MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE AND EVEN HIGHER WHERE SHOWERS PASS ACROSS. HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH IN MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS COULD AGAIN LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES AND WINDS TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING TRAJECTORY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD ONLY BE 20 TO 25 MPH AT MOST JUST IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...HUMIDITY COULD AGAIN DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IF NOT LOWER IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A BIT MORE RAINFALL ALONG WITH COOLER CONDITIONS UNDER CLOUD COVER LONGER WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE FIRE THREAT TO SOME DEGREE. THEREFORE GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE TODAY...PLAN TO ONLY HEADLINE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL LOW HUMIDITY...AND SOME GUSTINESS IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITHOUT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NOW PENDING COORDINATION THIS MORNING. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/PH NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AMS/RCS AVIATION...JH/JR/PH FIRE WEATHER...JH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 548 AM PDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Rain and snow showers can be expected today over the for eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Conditions will dry out on Saturday, but it looks to be short-lived as another front brings more precipitation by early Sunday morning and into Monday. A return to dry weather can be expected by middle of next week with warming temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight...Unstable northwest flow has become established over the region as upper level heights build over the Gulf of Alaska and a strong northwesterly upper level jet has drifted into the western part of Washington. This leaves the entire forecast area on the cold and unstable side of the jet, at least for the morning. Meanwhile the latest water vapor imagery was detecting a shortwave trough dropping southeast from around Kelowna BC. This feature was well handled by the short-range models all which take it into central Washington by late morning and then into east-central Oregon by afternoon. Deep ascent ahead of the feature looks quite favorable resulting in a blossoming of shower activity through the morning. The atmosphere near the Cascades is not as favorable to ascent due to shallower instability and some downslope flow in the lee of the crest. So we expect most of the showers to occur over the eastern third of Washington and much of the Panhandle. Northwest flow through the 850-700 mb layer is generally conducive to the best shower activity over the southern Idaho Panhandle, including the Clearwater Mountains and Camas Prairie, as well as over the Blue Mountains in SE Washington. The current batch of winter weather advisories for the Camas Prairie and central Panhandle Mountains looks plausible and will allow to continue. Based on the potential instability combined with the deep ascent some of the showers could get rather intense however they should be rapid movers thus preventing widespread significant snow from occurring. Nonetheless training of showers could occur over these areas and it wouldn`t be terribly surprising to get a few reports in excess of three inches over the Camas Prairie and a bit more over the mountains. Currently the winter weather advisory for snow is through 11am which is when we will see the best lifting ahead of the shortwave trough, however if the HRRR is correct we will see the shower threat continuing into the afternoon, with snow levels still low enough to bring snow to much of the Camas Prairie and the central Panhandle Mountains. For tonight the activity will taper off fairly rapidly as the shortwave departs the region and is replaced by the offshore ridge. Saturday and Saturday night...Saturday will be a dry day across the entire forecast area care of the upper level ridge. However its drying presence won`t last long as the next moist occluded front moves into the region. This front is moving slightly faster than previously forecast and will likely nudge into the Cascades late in the evening and then push toward the Washington- Idaho border toward morning. This system will have quite a bit more moisture than the current system and should bring some light precipitation to much of central Washington. The precipitation type could be difficult to determine depending on how quickly it arrives. The later or slower it arrives the better chances we will see for snow falling in the valleys. For now we are guessing there won`t be much cooling based increasing cloud cover during the late afternoon and evening. However if that notion changes we will need to lower snow levels lower than the 2500-3000 feet we forecast for the Methow Valley, Okanogan Valley and Republic area. Precipitation amounts are too light to consider any winter highlights at this time. fx Sunday and Monday: Upper level trough dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will impact the region on Sunday. Models have trended a bit faster for the onset of precipitation. By morning valley rain and mountain snow will already be moving into eastern WA and north ID. Snow levels will be 3000-4000 ft with accumulations expected at Stevens and Lookout Pass. Stevens could see several inches of snow with Lookout seeing 1-2 inches possible. Winds will increase from the southwest after the front passes through Sunday afternoon. Precipitation will quickly move out of the area by late afternoon/early evening. Sunday night and Monday showers will be possible as the low sits over the region. Tuesday through Friday: The cutoff low moves south into Nevada as the ridge builds builds off the west coast. The ridge will then flop over across the Pac NW and provide north to northeasterly flow through Wednesday. This will keep the winds elevated in the 10-20 mph range with occasional gusts to 30 mph. We dry out and daytime temperatures Tue/Wed will be near average and by Thur/Fri they will be above average. Overnight lows will be around average for this time of the year. /Nisbet && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail at all taf sites through this forecast period. The main weather of consequence will revolve around compact upper level disturbance currently moving into extreme NE Washington. Showers already beginning to develop ahead of this system over the eastern third of WA and much of the ID Panhandle and should continue to expand through the morning. Since this isn`t a real moist system we expect ceiling heights to remain in the VFR category, however brief MVFR cigs are possible especially for GEG SFF COE and PUW. The disturbance is forecast to drop into OR by afternoon, however residual instability will keep the threat of showers going through the afternoon. Drier weather and clearing skies will return to all sites overnight. fx && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 49 33 52 35 48 32 / 20 0 0 20 90 20 Coeur d`Alene 48 32 51 33 47 31 / 30 10 0 20 90 30 Pullman 46 32 52 34 48 31 / 70 0 0 20 80 20 Lewiston 52 34 57 38 54 35 / 60 0 0 20 60 20 Colville 55 31 55 32 50 31 / 20 0 0 20 80 20 Sandpoint 48 31 49 31 46 32 / 40 10 0 10 90 30 Kellogg 44 30 47 30 43 30 / 70 10 0 10 90 40 Moses Lake 58 33 59 37 56 32 / 10 0 0 40 40 0 Wenatchee 56 34 59 37 53 35 / 10 0 0 50 30 10 Omak 58 33 57 35 52 34 / 10 0 0 60 80 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Central Panhandle Mountains-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties. WA...None. && $$
AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 248 AM PDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Rain and snow showers can be expected today over the for eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Conditions will dry out on Saturday, but it looks to be short-lived as another front brings more precipitation by early Sunday morning and into Monday. A return to dry weather can be expected by middle of next week with warming temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight...Unstable northwest flow has become established over the region as upper level heights build over the Gulf of Alaska and a strong northwesterly upper level jet has drifted into the western part of Washington. This leaves the entire forecast area on the cold and unstable side of the jet, at least for the morning. Meanwhile the latest water vapor imagery was detecting a shortwave trough dropping southeast from around Kelowna BC. This feature was well handled by the short-range models all which take it into central Washington by late morning and then into east-central Oregon by afternoon. Deep ascent ahead of the feature looks quite favorable resulting in a blossoming of shower activity through the morning. The atmosphere near the Cascades is not as favorable to ascent due to shallower instability and some downslope flow in the lee of the crest. So we expect most of the showers to occur over the eastern third of Washington and much of the Panhandle. Northwest flow through the 850-700 mb layer is generally conducive to the best shower activity over the southern Idaho Panhandle, including the Clearwater Mountains and Camas Prairie, as well as over the Blue Mountains in SE Washington. The current batch of winter weather advisories for the Camas Prairie and central Panhandle Mountains looks plausible and will allow to continue. Based on the potential instability combined with the deep ascent some of the showers could get rather intense however they should be rapid movers thus preventing widespread significant snow from occurring. Nonetheless training of showers could occur over these areas and it wouldn`t be terribly surprising to get a few reports in excess of three inches over the Camas Prairie and a bit more over the mountains. Currently the winter weather advisory for snow is through 11am which is when we will see the best lifting ahead of the shortwave trough, however if the HRRR is correct we will see the shower threat continuing into the afternoon, with snow levels still low enough to bring snow to much of the Camas Prairie and the central Panhandle Mountains. For tonight the activity will taper off fairly rapidly as the shortwave departs the region and is replaced by the offshore ridge. Saturday and Saturday night...Saturday will be a dry day across the entire forecast area care of the upper level ridge. However its drying presence won`t last long as the next moist occluded front moves into the region. This front is moving slightly faster than previously forecast and will likely nudge into the Cascades late in the evening and then push toward the Washington- Idaho border toward morning. This system will have quite a bit more moisture than the current system and should bring some light precipitation to much of central Washington. The precipitation type could be difficult to determine depending on how quickly it arrives. The later or slower it arrives the better chances we will see for snow falling in the valleys. For now we are guessing there won`t be much cooling based increasing cloud cover during the late afternoon and evening. However if that notion changes we will need to lower snow levels lower than the 2500-3000 feet we forecast for the Methow Valley, Okanogan Valley and Republic area. Precipitation amounts are too light to consider any winter highlights at this time. fx Sunday and Monday: Upper level trough dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will impact the region on Sunday. Models have trended a bit faster for the onset of precipitation. By morning valley rain and mountain snow will already be moving into eastern WA and north ID. Snow levels will be 3000-4000 ft with accumulations expected at Stevens and Lookout Pass. Stevens could see several inches of snow with Lookout seeing 1-2 inches possible. Winds will increase from the southwest after the front passes through Sunday afternoon. Precipitation will quickly move out of the area by late afternoon/early evening. Sunday night and Monday showers will be possible as the low sits over the region. Tuesday through Friday: The cutoff low moves south into Nevada as the ridge builds builds off the west coast. The ridge will then flop over across the Pac NW and provide north to northeasterly flow through Wednesday. This will keep the winds elevated in the 10-20 mph range with occasional gusts to 30 mph. We dry out and daytime temperatures Tue/Wed will be near average and by Thur/Fri they will be above average. Overnight lows will be around average for this time of the year. /Nisbet && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The region will be in an unstable northwest flow, with a disturbance riding through to keep a threat of showers alive through at least midday Friday. Occasional MVFR cigs are possible with any showers that happen over the TAF sites, with LCL IFR cigs possible especially toward PUW. Early tonight the main risk will be near PUW/LWS then redevelop around GEG to COE after 08-10Z with that incoming disturbance. Some that may fall as snow or a rain/snow mix, with the best risk of snow coming around PUW. The threat will then decrease behind that disturbance, except near the mountains and PUW/LWS. The entire region will dry out Friday evening. /J. Cote` && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 49 33 52 35 48 32 / 20 0 0 20 90 20 Coeur d`Alene 48 32 51 33 47 31 / 30 10 0 20 90 30 Pullman 46 32 52 34 48 31 / 70 0 0 20 80 20 Lewiston 52 34 57 38 54 35 / 60 0 0 20 60 20 Colville 55 31 55 32 50 31 / 20 0 0 20 80 20 Sandpoint 48 31 49 31 46 32 / 40 10 0 10 90 30 Kellogg 44 30 47 30 43 30 / 70 10 0 10 90 40 Moses Lake 58 33 59 37 56 32 / 10 0 0 40 40 0 Wenatchee 56 34 59 37 53 35 / 10 0 0 50 30 10 Omak 58 33 57 35 52 34 / 10 0 0 60 80 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Central Panhandle Mountains-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
300 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THIN DISSIPATING LINE OF SHOWERS WORKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LI. LATEST HRRR HAS THIS LINE MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST PLACES LIKELY ALREADY REACHED THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY...AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY...EVEN FALL...AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT COME THROUGH UNTIL THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE NY METRO AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NY METRO AND ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... CANADIAN MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ALONG THE COAST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS INTERIOR AWAY FROM MARITIME INVERSION. POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE POOLING UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PAC ENERGY ENTERING THE WEST COAST EARLIER THIS EVENING DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN LIFTING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY WILL HAVE A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A COASTAL LOW BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION WITH RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN STORM TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY DETAILS ARE STILL LOW. SBU ENSEMBLES SENSITIVITY AND FUZZY CLUSTERING ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CMC/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. SENSITIVITY IN EXACT PROGRESSION AND EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTHENING OF THE PAC SHORTWAVE AS IT INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY WEAKER LOW...WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE A LESS PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY STRONGER LOW. TO ADD TO THIS...THE PHASING DETAILS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF COMPLEXITY IN STRENGTH AND WIND/QPF POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH POPS COVERING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING ISSUES EVIDENT IN ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...GUSTY NW WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY AND TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...VEERING FROM THE SW TO W...THEN NW. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ESTIMATED AROUND 21Z KSWF...22-23Z NYC TERMINALS...AND 00-01Z EASTERN TERMINALS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH AROUND 09Z. THERE REMAINS MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER. IFR CONDITIONS KISP AND KGON UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE VFR. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHRA. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO W THEN NW MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS 1-2 HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO W THEN NW MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS 1-2 HOURS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY VARY FROM 230-280 THRU 20Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY VARY FROM 230-280 THRU 20Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO W THEN NW MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS 1-2 HOURS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO W THEN NW MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS 1-2 HOURS. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. .SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. .TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FEET. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH...BUT SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS OCEAN AND SOUTHERN BAYS...AND EASTERN SOUND/BAYS LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE COOL WATERS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY SWELLS MAY LINGER SCA SEAS INTO SAT NIGHT. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ON MONDAY...BUT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN GALES...MON NIGHT INTO TUE IN WAKE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRES TRACKING TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. && .HYDROLOGY... A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA TODAY WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNT BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR GREATER OF RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/NV NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...FIG LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...DW MARINE...FIG/NV HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1216 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND IS APPROACHING NYC. LATEST HRRR HAS THIS LINE MOVING INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT...AND THEN SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER CT/LI INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LOWER QPF AMOUNTS...AS PRECIP IS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MOST PLACES LIKELY ALREADY REACHED THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY...AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY...EVEN FALL...AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT COME THROUGH UNTIL THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE NY METRO AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NY METRO AND ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... CANADIAN MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ALONG THE COAST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS INTERIOR AWAY FROM MARITIME INVERSION. POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE POOLING UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PAC ENERGY ENTERING THE WEST COAST EARLIER THIS EVENING DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN LIFTING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY WILL HAVE A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A COASTAL LOW BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION WITH RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN STORM TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY DETAILS ARE STILL LOW. SBU ENSEMBLES SENSITIVITY AND FUZZY CLUSTERING ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CMC/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. SENSITIVITY IN EXACT PROGRESSION AND EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTHENING OF THE PAC SHORTWAVE AS IT INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY WEAKER LOW...WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE A LESS PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY STRONGER LOW. TO ADD TO THIS...THE PHASING DETAILS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF COMPLEXITY IN STRENGTH AND WIND/QPF POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH POPS COVERING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING ISSUES EVIDENT IN ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...GUSTY NW WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY AND TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING NYC TERMINALS...TRACKING NE AT 40 KT. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED EVENT AND WILL PASS EAST BY 17Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH THE ACTIVITY AND AN ISOLATED TSRA CAN NOT BE RULED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...18Z-21Z. LLWS LASTS UNTIL AROUND 18Z AT KGON. WINDS VEER TO SW WITH G20KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE W THEN NW MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON MAY NEED TO BE DELAYED BY SEVERAL HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO W THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE DELAYED 1-2 HOURS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO W THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE DELAYED 1-2 HOURS. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO W THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE DELAYED 1-2 HOURS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO SW THIS MORNING MAY BE DELAYED BY AN HOUR...AS WELL WIND SHIFT TO THE W THIS AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR POSSIBLE. WIND SHIFT TO W THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE DELAYED BY SEVERAL HOURS. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. .SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. .TUESDAY...BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FEET. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH...BUT SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS OCEAN AND SOUTHERN BAYS...AND EASTERN SOUND/BAYS LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE COOL WATERS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY SWELLS MAY LINGER SCA SEAS INTO SAT NIGHT. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ON MONDAY...BUT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN GALES...MON NIGHT INTO TUE IN WAKE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRES TRACKING TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. && .HYDROLOGY... A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA TODAY WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNT BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR GREATER OF RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/NV NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...FIG LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...JMC/DW MARINE...FIG/NV HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1156 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND IS APPROACHING NYC. LATEST HRRR HAS THIS LINE MOVING INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT...AND THEN SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER CT/LI INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LOWER QPF AMOUNTS...AS PRECIP IS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MOST PLACES LIKELY ALREADY REACHED THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY...AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY...EVEN FALL...AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT COME THROUGH UNTIL THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE NY METRO AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NY METRO AND ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... CANADIAN MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ALONG THE COAST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS INTERIOR AWAY FROM MARITIME INVERSION. POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE POOLING UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PAC ENERGY ENTERING THE WEST COAST EARLIER THIS EVENING DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN LIFTING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY WILL HAVE A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A COASTAL LOW BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION WITH RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN STORM TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY DETAILS ARE STILL LOW. SBU ENSEMBLES SENSITIVITY AND FUZZY CLUSTERING ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CMC/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. SENSITIVITY IN EXACT PROGRESSION AND EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTHENING OF THE PAC SHORTWAVE AS IT INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY WEAKER LOW...WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE A LESS PROGRESSIVE AND LIKELY STRONGER LOW. TO ADD TO THIS...THE PHASING DETAILS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF COMPLEXITY IN STRENGTH AND WIND/QPF POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH POPS COVERING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING ISSUES EVIDENT IN ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...GUSTY NW WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY AND TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF LI AND AND SE CT...BUT IS STILL HUNG UP NEAR NYC. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK NORTH OF THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE- FRONTAL TROF...WILL IMPACT KSWF 15Z-17Z...NYC TERMINALS/KHPN 17-19Z...AND KGON/KISP/KBDR 19Z-21Z. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWS BY 1-2 HOURS. THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH THE ACTIVITY AND AN ISOLATED TSRA CAN NOT BE RULED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...18Z-21Z. WINDS VEER TO THE SW AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NORTH...AND INCREASE TO 15-20KT FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MRNG. LLWS LASTS UNTIL AROUND 15Z...EXCEPT UNTIL AROUND 18Z AT KGON. THE ONLY OTHER EXCEPTION IS KSWF...WHERE NO LLWS IS EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SW LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE W THEN NW MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20KT PROBABLE FROM MID AFTERNOON ON. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON MAY NEED TO BE DELAYED BY SEVERAL HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO W THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE DELAYED BY SEVERAL HOURS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO SW THIS MORNING MAY BE DELAYED BY 1-2 HOURS...AS WELL WIND SHIFT TO THE W THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO SW THIS MORNING MAY BE DELAYED BY 1-2 HOURS...AS WELL WIND SHIFT TO THE W THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VIS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER AFT THE WRMFNT. WIND SHIFT TO SW THIS MORNING MAY BE DELAYED BY 1-2 HOURS...AS WELL WIND SHIFT TO THE W THIS AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR THIS MRNG. WIND SHIFT TO W THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE DELAYED BY SEVERAL HOURS. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. .SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. .TUESDAY...BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FEET. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH...BUT SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS OCEAN AND SOUTHERN BAYS...AND EASTERN SOUND/BAYS LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE COOL WATERS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY SWELLS MAY LINGER SCA SEAS INTO SAT NIGHT. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ON MONDAY...BUT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN GALES...MON NIGHT INTO TUE IN WAKE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRES TRACKING TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. && .HYDROLOGY... A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA TODAY WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNT BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR GREATER OF RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/NV NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...FIG LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...JMC/DW MARINE...FIG/NV HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
332 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MAY CLIP MARION AND FLAGLER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. IN BETWEEN...A SPRINKLE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. THE SIGNIFICANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF HAS HELD TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SO THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE DAY. LOWERED POPS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND ECMWF DEVELOP CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AND BUMPED UP POPS THERE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ON SATURDAY...CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ONCE AGAIN...AND ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET IS FORECAST TO NOSE INTO THE REGION...WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SATURDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40-50 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AND ANY HEATING MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...AND A MARGINAL RISK IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WARMEST SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OVER FL PANHANDLE INTO SE GA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RAINFALL ON SUNDAY. UPPER-JET DIFFLUENCE WILL AID SHOWER AND TSTORM FORMATION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF EXTENDING WEST OF OUR AREA. AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK THROUGH OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A THICK CLOUD CANOPY WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY HOWEVER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING 1000-1200 CAPE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH 40 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR. THEREFORE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY BE REALIZED. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD AT 2-3 INCHES FOR INLAND SE GA AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER SE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... RAIN FINALLY CLEARS OUT OF THE FORECAST BY MONDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE A WARM UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. SOME INDICATION BY THE MODELS THAT A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIGHT LIFT NORTH AND INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE ALONG THE EASTERNMOST COAST OF FL ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THE NEXT WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR RAIN DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AT THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN A FRONT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GET NEAR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BEFORE 18Z WILL BE AT KSSI AND KGNV. FOR NOW...PUT VCTS IN AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 14-15Z. LIGHT WINDS TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY S TO SE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 65 74 64 75 / 50 80 40 90 SSI 62 72 63 73 / 30 60 30 80 JAX 65 77 66 78 / 40 50 20 80 SGJ 65 78 67 78 / 50 50 20 70 GNV 66 80 67 80 / 50 50 20 70 OCF 67 82 67 83 / 50 50 20 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ KENNEDY/WALSH/NELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
459 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 455 PM UPDATE...DECIDED TO LET THE WINTER STORM WARNING EXPIRE AS STEADY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE COMING TO AN END. SOME POCKETS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER TRAVEL HAZARDS THROUGH THE EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STAYED WITH THE HRRR 3KM AND GEM MODEL BLEND FOR PRECIP AND TEMPS FOR THIS PACKAGE. ADDITIONAL ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE ICING THREAT WILL END BY EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRES PULLS TOWARD NEW BRUNSWICK W/SOME SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS COLD AIR MOVES IN AT MID LEVELS. LLVLS WILL COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. NNW WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW BRUNSWICK W/SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE NO MORE THAN 1/2 INCH. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK W/SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS READINGS HIT THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME RE-FREEZING OF SURFACES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING, BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. THIS BEING BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SATURDAY NIGHT RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE BECOMES ESTABLISHED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEEP LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER MOVING ON-SHORE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ON THE COAST AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF ICE PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE INCREASE TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING AS NEXT WEATHER MAKER BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. A SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO A LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...WHICH COULD SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE THE RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WIND SPEEDS. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW BUT THE SREF/NAM/EC/CMC ALL HAVE THE COASTAL LOW BECOMING THE PRIMARY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE QPF FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND WET SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN SUGGEST A WET SNOW EVENT ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT WILL BE ABOVE 10 DEGREES COLDER ON TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. NOT SO SURE ABOUT NORTHERN MAINE AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. VFR ALL TERMINALS FOR SATURDAY W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR THE FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS N OF KHUL. SHORT TERM: LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER EXPECTED BY SUNDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME IFR CEILINGS. CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN RAIN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS NNW WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PICK UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. A SWELL COMPONENT IS THERE WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING 5-6 FT. EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT W/GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS EVENING AND THEN FALL OFF BY EARLY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS WILL FALL BACK DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION. SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA. WE ARE WATCHING FOR A POSSIBLE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME ON THIS STORM. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUMONT LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...HEWITT/DUMONT MARINE...HEWITT/DUMONT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
346 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS HAS TURNED TO A FREEZING RAIN THREAT INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF PRECIP RIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/LOW PRES MOVING E AND DECENT MID LEVEL PUNCH. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS UP THROUGH 5 PM HITTING THE ICING THREAT MORE. LET THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE HOULTON-MILLINOCKET-LINCOLN REGION EXPIRE AS ICING THREAT LESSENED AND TEMPS RISING. STAYED WITH THE HRRR 3KM AND GEM MODEL BLEND FOR PRECIP AND TEMPS FOR THIS PACKAGE. ADDITIONAL ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE ICING THREAT WILL END BY EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRES PULLS TOWARD NEW BRUNSWICK W/SOME SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS COLD AIR MOVES IN AT MID LEVELS. LLVLS WILL COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. NNW WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW BRUNSWICK W/SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE NO MORE THAN 1/2 INCH. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK W/SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS READINGS HIT THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME RE-FREEZING OF SURFACES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING, BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. THIS BEING BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SATURDAY NIGHT RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE BECOMES ESTABLISHED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEEP LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER MOVING ON-SHORE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ON THE COAST AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF ICE PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE INCREASE TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING AS NEXT WEATHER MAKER BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. A SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO A LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...WHICH COULD SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE THE RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WIND SPEEDS. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW BUT THE SREF/NAM/EC/CMC ALL HAVE THE COASTAL LOW BECOMING THE PRIMARY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE QPF FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND WET SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN SUGGEST A WET SNOW EVENT ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT WILL BE ABOVE 10 DEGREES COLDER ON TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. NOT SO SURE ABOUT NORTHERN MAINE AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. VFR ALL TERMINALS FOR SATURDAY W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR THE FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS N OF KHUL. SHORT TERM: LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER EXPECTED BY SUNDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME IFR CEILINGS. CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN RAIN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS NNW WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PICK UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. A SWELL COMPONENT IS THERE WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING 5-6 FT. EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT W/GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS EVENING AND THEN FALL OFF BY EARLY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS WILL FALL BACK DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION. SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA. WE ARE WATCHING FOR A POSSIBLE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME ON THIS STORM. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001- 002. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUMONT LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...HEWITT/DUMONT MARINE...HEWITT/DUMONT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
217 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SN YDAY OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA. THE INCOMING AIRMASS ABOVE ASSOCIATED SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM JAMES BAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RATHER DRY PER THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS...WHERE THE PWATS WERE GENERALLY ABOUT 0.20 INCH /ABOUT 65 PCT OF NORMAL/. ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS LINGER OVER THE FAR ERN CWA...THE COMBINATION OF THE LLVL ACYC FLOW/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS RESULTING IN MOCLR SKIES W TO NW MN...WHERE SOME MID AND HI CLDS ARE PRESENT IN THE WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF A PAIR OF SHRTWVS...ONE MOVING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS/ FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPR MI HAVE FALLEN AS LO AS THE SINGLE NUMBERS EARLY THIS MRNG. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY UNDER PASSSING HI PRES RDG AND THEN POPS/PTYPE LATE TNGT AS THE WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM SHRTWVS FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING RDG INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS. TODAY...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM HI/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE CWA FM THE W...THE VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS WL ENSURE DRY WX. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTING OVER LK HURON LATE IN THE DAY IS FCST TO ADVECT SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS AND LIFT H85 TEMPS TO ARND 0C BY 00Z SAT. EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 40S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LKS...MAINLY LK MI. TNGT...MODELS SHOW SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DPVA AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SRN SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS /H825-625/ MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA OVERNGT AS SFC LO PRES TROF/COLD FNT MOVES INTO WRN LK SUP BY 12Z SAT. HOW QUICKLY THIS DYNAMIC SUPPORT CAN OVERCOME THE LLVL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE PCPN IS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES SOMEWHAT SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THUS BREAKS PCPN OUT A LITTLE FASTER... BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHICH IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS THAT WL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA... WL TEND TOWARD THE SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM/ LOCAL WRF-ARW. PTYPE FCST IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...BUT FCST THERMAL FIELDS SUG A MIX OF RA AND SN WL BE PSBL. CONCERN IS LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR COULD ALLOW FOR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LOWER WBLB TEMPS AOB 32F. IF PCPN IS IN THE FORM OF RA...SOME FREEZING RA COULD OCCUR. THE GOOD NEWS IS QPF THRU 12Z SAT WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...SO ANY SN/ICE ACCUM WL BE MINIMAL. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 549 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE NRN STREAM DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES...WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING AS A SRN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS WEEKEND WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALONG/AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES WILL ALLOW PCPN TO SLOWLY EXPAND FROM WRN UPPER MI SAT MORNING INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE SAT AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AFTER INITIAL PUSH OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND BETTER 285-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT EARLY SAT MORNING MODELS SUGGEST WEAK FORCING DURING DAY ON SAT UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY LEAD TO LULL IN PCPN. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES STILL INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF -SN/LIGHT FZRA EARLY SAT...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF...BUT BY LATE SAT MORNING/EARLY SAT AFTERNOON ANY LIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE IN FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST PLACES. ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE FROM NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ASSOC DEEP Q-LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND INCREASING 285-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING PCPN CHCS BY SAT EVENING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WOULD FAVOR THE WEST HALF FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS AND THUS LIKELY POPS FOR SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP WITH IDEA OF HIGHER CHC POPS EAST HALF. PTYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS NAM FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PCPN POSSIBLY STAYING MORE RAIN OVER THE FCST AREA THRU SAT NIGHT...BUT YET MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD INDICATE PCPN CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW WEST HALF LATE SAT NIGHT WITH A SNOW/RAIN MIX EAST HALF. WL SIDE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...BUT COULD EASILY SEE WARMER NAM VERIFYING SAT NIGHT IF TEMPS REACH INTO THE 40S DURING DAY ON SAT AND THEN THICKER CLOUDS ROLL IN TOWARD EVENING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH. SUN-TUE...AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN DEPARTS OVER THE EAST SUN MORNING WITH EXITING LOW PRES AREA AND ASSOC TROUGH...EXPECT CLEARING AND DRYING FROM WEST DURING DAY ON SUN WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WEAK NRN STREAM SHRTWVS WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN. INCREASING WAA AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF WARMER AIR INTO UPPER MI. HOWEVER...SE FLOW AT SFC WILL TEMPER WARMING...CONFINING WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS TO MAINLY WRN INTERIOR. WED-THU...SW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL TROUGH LIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR PCPN WED INTO THU. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE INCRSG HI/MID CLDS INTO THIS EVNG...LLVL DRY AIR WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST THE EARLY MRNG HRS ON SAT. AS A LO PRES TROF APRCHS FM THE W...SOME RA/SN AND POSSIBLE FZRA WL ARRIVE AT IWD/CMX AFTER 06Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT IWD/CMX...WITH IFR CONDITIONS PSBL AT CMX TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WHEN THE PTYPE WL CHANGE MAINLY TO SN AT THAT SITE. SINCE THE PCPN WL STAY W OF SAW...EXPECT VFR WX TO PREVAIL AT THAT LOCATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE S AND GRADUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS TONIGHT UNDER A BIT TIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THRU THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AHEAD OF A HI PRES BUILDING INTO NW ONTARIO. AS THIS HI CENTER MOVES TOWARD THE AREA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. A STRONGER S-SE WIND UP TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP ON TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE HI CENTER TO THE E. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...VOSS AVIATION...JLA MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
317 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SATURDAY DEALS WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN RATHER THICK THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... MAINLY CONFINED TO THE PINE RIDGE. WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA... BUT WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25F... ONLY RESULT IS VIRGA. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WORKS TOWARD THE SURFACE. REMOVED MENTION OF SPRINKLES SOUTH OF NEB HWY 2 AS LIFT IN THE LOWER 200HPA DISAPPEARS. THROUGH 06Z... BEST SATURATION AND LIFT EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND NORTHWEST CHERRY COUNTIES... SO RETAINED LIKELY POPS FOR A SMALL AREA ALONG THE SD BORDER. HRRR HINTS AT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST... SO EXTENDED SCHC POPS SOUTH TOWARD KTIF AND EAST TOWARD KONL. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SWITCH TO SNOW AT MERRIMAN AROUND 03Z AND VALENTINE AROUND 05Z. USED A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RA TO RASN TO SN FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOWFALL WISE... SOUNDINGS AT KVTN SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 600HPA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIFT BELOW 800HPA... WHERE THE DGZ GENERALLY LINES UP WITH 600-700HPA. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S WHICH WILL LIMIT SLR. START AROUND 10:1 FOR 06-12Z AND INCREASE TO NEAR CLIMO... 12-13:1... BY LATE MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE AROUND 1 INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 20 WEST OF KVTN AND A DUSTING FROM KAIA TO KONL. HAVE WINDS PICKING UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE FROPA. NAM INDICATING 850HPA WINDS NEAR 35KTS AND A 1MB/HR PRESSURE CHANGE. MECHANICAL FORCING WILL BRING MUCH OF THIS TO THE SURFACE AND WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. STRONG CAA IS EVIDENT WITH 850HPA TEMPS DROPPING FROM 1C AT KLBF AT 06Z TO NEAR -5C BY 12Z. ALSO... SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON HOW THESE FACTORS WILL BALANCE... SO MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS. OVERALL... FORECAST LOWS ARE VERY CLOSE TO MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. SATURDAY... MAX TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AS BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS AND SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANY SUBZERO H85 TEMPS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE GENERALLY 2-3F BELOW MOS GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH. NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK LIFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY. KONL TEMP PROFILE MAINLY SUPPORTS SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON... BUT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND SFC WET BULB ABOVE 0C... TRANSITIONED BACK TO RASN MIX. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE TAKES HOLD ON THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST BLEND OF 4 GUIDANCE DATA SETS PLUS BIAS CORRECTION PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY. THE EKD...ECE...MEX GUIDANCE BLEND PLUS BIAS CORRECTION FOR MONDAY PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FULL SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY AS SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT IN FROM A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN U.S.. WEST WINDS SUNDAY SUPPORT DEEPER MIXING THAN THE SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY. SO DESPITE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT HIGHS MONDAY ARE FAIRLY MODEST. THE FORECAST IS DRY. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF ARCTIC AIR SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH PRODUCES LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS TO NEAR 10C AT 850MB SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A HOT PROD REACHES INTO THE FCST AREA TUESDAY AND H850MB TEMPERATURES SPIKE REACHING 16C TO 20C. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECM WHICH BACKS A COLD FRONT INTO NRN NEB. A BLENDED APPROACH PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE 70S SOUTH AND 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH. AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A PIECE OF THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH AND NRN PLAINS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NWRN NEB. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP AS A RESULT OF THE HOT PROD TUESDAY. THE ECM AND GFS SHOW SOME SORT OF CONVECTION FORMING AS A RESULT. MOST OF THIS IS EAST OF THE FCST AREA. THE SHEAR IS STRONG WITH H500MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50 TO 70KT. A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -25C TO -30C. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATING THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY LIFTS INTO ONTARIO FORMING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO PULL LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS THESE DAYS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE BELOW NORMAL AS IS THE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN BKN SKY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA NEAR KCDR AND KIEN WHERE LIGHT RAIN MAY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...MAINLY AFFECTING KVTN...KANW...AND KONL. WIND WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS IT TURNS NORTHWESTERLY...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 TUESDAY COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FIRE. THE GFS AND ECM BRING A WARM SPOKE OF DRY AIR NORTH INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHICH COULD RESULT IN HUMIDITY NEAR OR BELOW 15 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWEST IN THE WARM DRY AIR AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH IMPLYING GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE ECM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND DELAYS THE DRY AIR UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SNIVELY LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...SNIVELY FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
358 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT ALONG AND WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY... THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS STILL INCHING ITS WAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE EVIDENT IN A GROWING CU FIELD OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MLCAPE IS HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...WHERE DEEP MOISTURE IS GREATER AND PW IS AROUND 1.25". SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE AS THE CONVERGENCE INCREASES INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE HRRR SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE 00-03Z AND ACTUALLY CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z AS THE INDUCED ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 295K TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT SATURATES A SHALLOW LAYER. THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF SKIES CLEAR ALOFT..WHICH VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IS POSSIBLE...THEN SOME FOG MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHEAST WINDS TAKE OVER. LOWS 47-55. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL OVER SC ON SATURDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD THE NC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL US TROUGH. DEEPENING..BUT STILL RATHER SHALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...A TREND NOTED IN THE PAST 2 OR 3 RUNS OF MOST GUIDANCE. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...AND THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 350 PM FRIDAY... SPLIT STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND WESTERN NOAM WILL CONVERGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE ASSOCIATED STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS WITHIN EACH BRANCH LIKELY TO SPLIT CENTRAL NC. NONETHELESS...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP A LINGERING HYBRID CAD REGIME OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUDY AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RELATIVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG 1) ALONG AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE WEDGE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN RAH CWA...AND 2) OVER THE NW PIEDMONT...WHERE DEEPER LIFT AND SATURATION FROM NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND MAXIMIZES ACROSS WESTERN NC AND VA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH IN BOTH AREAS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN. A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MON AFTERNOON...WITH OTHERWISE CLEARING AND COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK...INCLUDING SOME MID TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE CENTER OF THE INCOMING SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. THE PATTERN WILL TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK...AS A BROAD/ELONGATED POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES FROM THE CA BAJA TO HUDSON BAY...AND CONSEQUENTLY DIRECTS CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE EAST COAST. AN ACCOMPANYING WAVY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THU...AND SLOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND...YIELDING HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT TIME. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...SURGES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RUNS ATOP THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP MEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER FROM MVFR TO IFR. RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OVER SC TOWARD THE NC COAST. OUTLOOK: THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHALLOW OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...22/CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT ALONG AND WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY... THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS STILL INCHING ITS WAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE EVIDENT IN A GROWING CU FIELD OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MLCAPE IS HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...WHERE DEEP MOISTURE IS GREATER AND PW IS AROUND 1.25". SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE AS THE CONVERGENCE INCREASES INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE HRRR SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE 00-03Z AND ACTUALLY CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z AS THE INDUCED ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 295K TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT SATURATES A SHALLOW LAYER. THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF SKIES CLEAR ALOFT..WHICH VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IS POSSIBLE...THEN SOME FOG MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHEAST WINDS TAKE OVER. LOWS 47-55. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL OVER SC ON SATURDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD THE NC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL US TROUGH. DEEPENING..BUT STILL RATHER SHALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...A TREND NOTED IN THE PAST 2 OR 3 RUNS OF MOST GUIDANCE. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...AND THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY... SUN AND MON: A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOVE NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THE CAD AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LINGER...AT LEAST ACROSS THE FAR NW...INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ERODES IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS CAPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S NORTH...LOW 70S SOUTH. THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT WRT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN THAT REGARD HAS INCREASED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA WILL GET ON MON AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST. GENERALLY...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH AND THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MON...WITH MON NIGHT BEING DRY AND TEMPS LOWERING. MON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SE. MON NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT: A RETURN OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR MID-WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TUE AND WED. LOWS MODERATING FROM UPPER LOW 40S TUE NIGHT TO MID TO UPPER 40S WED NIGHT. THU AND FRI: ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU THROUGH FRI. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...SURGES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RUNS ATOP THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP MEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER FROM MVFR TO IFR. RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OVER SC TOWARD THE NC COAST. OUTLOOK: THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHALLOW OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...KCP AVIATION...22/CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
109 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THIS FRONT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM EDT FRIDAY... AT 13Z (9 AM EDT)...A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST WEST OF LYH TO MTV AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY WERE DIMINISHING AS ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...CLEARING WAS OBSERVED ON VSBY SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF NC TO PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THIS CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE EXCEPT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS. DESPITE WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LURK IN THE VIRGINIA SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT...WITH CAPES FORECAST TO REACH 100-200 J/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AS ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR AND RAP...WHICH BOTH HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...KEPT CHC POPS IN THIS REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. FRONT SLOWS UP JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS THAT MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER EASTERN SECTIONS. ALSO FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTH/NE THIS EVENING AND THEN SE ACROSS THE SW LATE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WEDGING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THINKING THAT WILL REMAIN DRY WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP SOUTHERN SECTIONS SO TRENDING MORE PC EXCEPT CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH COOLING TO GET LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FROST HEADLINES IN FAR SW VA AT THIS POINT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH A COOL NORTHEAST WIND TO START THIS COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND OVERRUNNING CIRRUS DURING THE AFTERNOON...KEPT SATURDAY TEMPERATURES UNDER GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND ALONG WITH INCREASE LOW CLOUDS...WILL HAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE 40S AND ABOVE GUIDANCE. SUNDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY FOR TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE DISPLAYING A SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE VA/NC COAST AND HAVE REMOVED THE WEDGE FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THIS REFLECTION AND PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA WILL ENHANCE THIS WEDGE SUNDAY. FURTHERMORE...WITH NO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE WEDGE...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MET...WHICH IS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE MODELS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNIFORM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE WEDGE MAY ERODE SOME TOWARDS THE BLUEFIELD AND MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AREAS TO POSSIBLE HIT 70F SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THE WEDGE OUT OF THE REGION. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS BEGIN TO PHASE ON MONDAY AS BOTH LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES MERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE WEDGE BREAKS AND COLD AIR DOES NOT START MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY... MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TROF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS A SHORT WAVE PUSHING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC WAS FAVORING THE TIMING AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY FOR RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AND INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 110 PM EDT FRIDAY... MVFR CIGS NOTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING KBCB...KBLF...KLWB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MVFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AT 17Z (1 PM EDT)...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE NWS BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...NEAR KDAN. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA...SO ONLY INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH IN THE KDAN TAF. WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND HEIGHT...BUT INCLUDED VFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR KBLF AND KLWB...UPSLOPE FLOW CLOUDS MAY RE- DEVELOP TONIGHT AND IF THIS OCCURS...A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MAY GET STUCK WITHIN MVFR CIGS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WEDGE SLOW TO EXIT. THIS COULD BRING SUB-VFR TO MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ALLOWING LOWER CIGS TO SCATTER OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LIKELY TO BRING A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY... MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE AND EVEN HIGHER WHERE SHOWERS PASS ACROSS. HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH IN MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 25 MPH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PRECENT. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/PH NEAR TERM...JH/PH SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AMS/RCS AVIATION...JH/PH FIRE WEATHER...JH