Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/23/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

251 PM PDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE BAY AREA. THE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN BY MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 PM PDT MONDAY...KMUX DOPPLER RADAR IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS MONTEREY. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PARENT STORM PUSHING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 1200Z ECMWF AND THE 1800Z GFS40
AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND MOVE THE FRONT SLOWLY OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AS COOL AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WEST
COAST. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS
FOR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT MONDAY...MAIN ISSUE REMAINS A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL GO THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. TRIED TO TIME
PRECIP MOSTLY WITH WHAT THE HRRR IS SHOWING WITH SOME HEDGING ALSO
TOWARD THE NAM. BIGGEST CHANCE SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE WAS TO
REMOVE +SHRA AT THE TERMINALS SINCE THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY (ALTHOUGH
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE IT COULD HAPPEN). AGREE THAT CIGS COULD DROP
TO 1500 FEET OF UNDER WITH MAIN BAND OF RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR TONIGHT. WINDS ALSO FORECAST TO PICK UP AS THE FRONT
NEARS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT. DIRECTION SHOULD MOST BE
IN THE 180 TO 210 RANGE PRE-FRONTAL THEN 240 TO 270 POST-FRONTAL.
WORTH NOTING THAT ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE WAS NOTED EARLIER TO OUR
NORTH SO WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT. OVERALL MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WINDS OF 170 TO 190 GUSTING UP TO 25 KT
FORECAST TO SWITCH MORE 240 TO 260 AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER
22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CHANGE CLOSE TO MVFR AROUND 19Z
WITH POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP TO 015 WITH MAIN BAND OF RAIN.
HOWEVER, HRRR SHOWS VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE SO CURRENT TAF IS MORE ON
THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z WITH VFR
FORECAST INTO TUESDAY. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE
RAIN TO THE NORTH DECIDED TO KEEP IT GOING FOR MONTEREY BAY REGION
TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL. SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNLESS
A MODERATE CELL MOVES THROUGH WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KT AFTER 22Z AS THE FRONT
NEARS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WATERS TODAY.
WESTERLY SWELL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM SONOMA
COUNTY THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 PM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

1043 AM PDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NORTH BAY WHERE
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:50 AM PDT MONDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE
WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AVERAGING BETWEEN 0.6
AND 0.9 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...KMUX DOPPLER RADAR IS
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN OVER SONOMA COUNTY WITH SOME STRONGER
RETURNS JUST OFF OF THE SONOMA COAST.

THE 0000Z ECMWF AND THE 1200Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED
WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MOVE THE FRONT INTO THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
LACK OF APPRECIABLE VERTICAL MOTION BETWEEN 5 TO 8 UBAR/S AND
NOT MUCH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER TO WORK WITH DON`T RAIN RATES
TO GET OUT OF CONTROL. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MAKES IT`S PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE MODERATE RAIN RATES
IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND EVEN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN THE NORTH BAY.

SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER AROUND THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AS COOL AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S 6 TO
10 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM SONOMA
COUNTY THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

745 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP ARE SHOWING THE 500 MB LOW BEING
A SLOWER...STRONGER AND SOUTH. BECAUSE OF THIS...PRECIPITATION
TOTALS HAVE INCREASED IN THE RAP MODEL TO 0.80 TO 1.50 INCHES IN
PARTS OF LARIMER...WELD AND BOULDER COUNTIES. THE HRRR IS ALSO
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION. THE 18Z GFS AND NAM ALSO
HINTED AT THIS AS WELL WITH A SHIFT WESTWARD AND AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION AROUND 12Z. UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND WELD COUNTY TO A BLIZZARD WARNING DUE TO THE
STRONGER WINDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE EASTERN PLAINS TOTALS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER...BUT THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

AND AWAY WE GO. FIRST OFF...THE RED FLAG WARNING ON THE PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE STRONG WINTER STORM IS STILL ON TRACK TO
AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY MIDNIGHT. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE GUSTY WEST WINDS AS THE STORM MOVES
THROUGH. MOUNTAIN SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH THE STORM QUICKLY EXITING THE STATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
STATE TONIGHT IT IS FORECAST TO FORM A CUT-OFF LOW OVER EAST-
CENTRAL COLORADO THAT MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE WIND WILL ACCOMPANY SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL STRETCH FROM THE WYOMING
BORDER DOWN TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE PLAINS AREAS NOT COVERED BY A BLIZZARD WARNING.

CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS...THE LOWEST LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE EFFECT THAT REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW THAT ACCUMULATES. WINDS CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE THE MAIN JUSTIFICATION FOR THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR ZONES. SNOW
AMOUNTS ON THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE
BLIZZARD WARNING AREA AND 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY ZONE
WHERE STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY...SO WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THAT ZONE. SNOW WILL BE LESS OF A PROBLEM IN THAT
ZONE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OVER THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DIVIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

THE WINTER STORM THAT IMPACTS THE REGION WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER.
SNOW WILL END FROM THE NW TO THE SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEAVING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST ON THE PLAINS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT THAT WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
50S AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SNOW COVER AND WINDS
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED SNOWFALL TO THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE
PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BEFORE EXITING TO
THE SE BY EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT QG BY SATURDAY WITH A
WINDOW OF FAVORABLE UPSLOPE SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT BY EARLY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE
30S WITH 20S EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME POSSIBLE FOG
FORMING DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE NEAR THE
GROUND.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE
OVER BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. BY MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES WITH THE ONSET OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS 0900-1100Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...18Z. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. STORM ACCUMULATION HAS INCREASED AT
KDEN TO 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH OTHER DENVER AREA AIRPORTS RECEIVING
4 TO 10 INCHES.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ040>046-
048>051.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ035-
038-039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ031-033-
034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COZ036.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ047.

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

226 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
LOW DEPARTS. A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AND MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NOT GOING TO MAKE CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES AND SNOW TOTALS JUST
YET. LATEST FEW RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP AS WELL AS THE 00Z RGEM WOULD
SUGGEST THAT WE WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NASSAU
AND NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...AND SHORT OF ALL WARNING CRITERIA. 00Z
NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE MORE QPF...AND BARELY SUPPORT WARNING
CRITERIA WHERE WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY POSTED. LOOKING AT RADAR
AND FORECAST FRONTOGENESIS FROM SOME OF THE MODELS...THINKING IS
THAT WE CAN STILL GET ENHANCED SNOW/BANDING OVER EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS THAT NASSAU AND NEW
HAVEN COUNTIES MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED FROM THE ADVISORY WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE...AND ALL AREAS NORTH AND WEST FROM THESE COUNTIES
END UP WITH LESS THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WHICH ISN`T ALL THAT
MUCH ANYWAY.

PRECIP ENDS MONDAY MORNING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE W/NW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...A BLEND OF ECS/MET/6Z MAV GUIDANCE...NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800-775 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...WHICH YIELDS HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
NW FLOW SETS UP ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAKENING RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND NO
SHORTWAVES TO TRIGGER ANY CLOUDS...SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED...SO
WINDS WILL STAY UP...LIMITING AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/6Z MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

A WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND HEAD EAST
PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW THERE IS
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE
TIMING AND EXACT LOCATIONS ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS.

THEREAFTER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AS THE
12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

GENERALLY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TRICKY ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. AS AN EXAMPLE...THE 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE HAS A RANGE FROM 39 TO 65 FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KJFK ON
THURSDAY WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION OF 7...DENOTING A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODEL. IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
THE AREA IT WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE...AND IF IT REMAINS TO THE
NORTH...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE. OTHER THAN
THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE AT LEAST ON WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WE WILL BE ON.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOVING
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
10Z TO 13Z AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY
TERMINALS AND EAST. WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE NEW YORK CITY
TERMINALS VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN
VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR. THE SNOW ENDS WEST OF NEW YORK CITY 09Z
TO 10Z. ONCE THE SNOW ENDS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR.

SNOWFALL TOTALS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...

KGON...3-4 INCHES.
KISP...AROUND 3 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KBDR...1-2 INCHES.
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...LESS THAN AN 1 INCH.
KSWF...LITTLE TO NONE.

NORTHERLY WINDS BACK TO NORTH/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS STRONGER
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTY NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. A FEW 30 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS AND GUSTS.
.TUESDAY...VFR. INCREASING W/SW WINDS G20-30KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN ATTM. NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH
A CHANCE FOR THE ERN SOUND AND BAYS TO SEE A BRIEF PT OF 25-KT
GUSTS. THE MORE LIKELY PD OF WIDESPREAD SCA CONDS ON ALL WATERS
WILL COME FROM MID AFTERNOON ON MON INTO MON NIGHT AS WINDS BACK
NW AND INCREASE. GUSTS ON THE OCEAN COULD PEAK AT 35 KT MON
EVENING. IF EXPECTED TIME FRAME OF THESE GUSTS INCREASES WITH
LATER FCSTS A GALE WATCH OR WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

SCA ENDS ON THE WRN SOUND...SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND NY HARBOR BY
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT...BUT STRONGER WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN
AND FARTHER E INTO MON NIGHT. LINGERING 5-FT OCEAN SEAS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO MON MORNING.

WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
WIND GUSTS APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 25 KT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND PECONIC AND GARDINER`S BAY
AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

WAVES WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH TUESDAY...WITH THE OCEAN ZONES
COMING DOWN BELOW 5 FT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WAVES BUILD
TO 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OCEAN AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY
NIGHT. WAVES DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...WAVES BUILD AGAIN TO
5 FT OR HIGHER ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
LESS THAN .1 INCHES WEST OF NYC METRO TO AROUND .8 INCHES OVER
THE EASTERN S FORK OF LONG ISLAND. EVEN WITH FAIRLY RAPID SNOW
MELT ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...NO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ008-
012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ006-007-010-011.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-
081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ078-080-177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

149 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

PRECIP ENDS MONDAY MORNING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE W/NW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...A BLEND OF ECS/MET/6Z MAV GUIDANCE...NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800-775 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...WHICH YIELDS HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SNOWFALL TOTALS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...

KGON...6-7 INCHES.
KISP...4-5 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KBDR...1-3 INCHES.
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...AROUND 1 INCH.
KSWF...LITTLE TO NONE.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1240 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

PRECIP ENDS MONDAY MORNING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE W/NW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...A BLEND OF ECS/MET/6Z MAV GUIDANCE...NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800-775 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...WHICH YIELDS HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

CEILINGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW...MAINLY NYC EAST. FOR TERMINALS WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND POSSIBLY KHPN...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS LOW DUE TO MAIN AREA OF SNOW REMAINING EAST OF THOSE
TERMINALS.

CURRENTLY...THE FOLLOWING TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE TAF SITES
ARE EXPECTED:

KGON...6-8 INCHES.
KISP...3-6 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KBDR...1-3 INCHES.
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...1-2 INCHES.
KSWF...1 INCH OR LESS.

BY 10-13Z...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH KGON
HANGING ON TO LOWER CONDITIONS A BIT LONGER.

WINDS QUICKLY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...THEN BACK
FURTHER TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS STRONGER FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTY NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. A FEW 30 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.TUESDAY...VFR. INCREASING W/SW WINDS G20-30KT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
.THURSDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/PW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

124 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE UPSTATE WILL CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LATEST CAE RADAR INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. LATEST SPC HRRR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SINCE MUCH OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHOULD
BE NORTH OF CAE. THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND
FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AS A BROAD RIDGE PUSHES EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
STATES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE COOLER
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SHOWING A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PROMOTING
DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS STILL SHOW
DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BEING FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE. DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO BRING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO
POPS GIVEN MODEL DISCREPANCIES.

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEAR CAE/CUB/OGB TERMINALS THROUGH 07Z.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS SIGNIFICANTLY. SHOWERS VERY LIGHT
AND MAINLY NEAR CAE/CUB. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN
STRATO- CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5000 FT. TROUGH MOVING EAST OF AREA
AROUND 10Z WITH CLEARING BEHIND SYSTEM. SKY CLEAR AFTER 12Z
THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AGS/DNL WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MODERATELY
TIGHT...GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 12Z THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1016 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.UPDATE...
1015 PM CDT

LATE UPDATE ON A TRICKY FORECAST INTO TOMORROW. OBSERVED 00Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE
AREA...SO LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT TO SLOWLY COME UP
TO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE NORTH OF I-80 PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK...WHICH IS LIKELY STILL TOO HIGH FOR MOST AREAS. SUSPECT
THAT POPS WILL BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED AS WELL UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON PER LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING 00Z NAM. AREAS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT COULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE ENTIRE DAYLIGHT PERIOD. MARINE
AIRMASS NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL SET UP JUST SOUTH OF
I-80 COULD ENABLE SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE...AND POSSIBLY
LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD THE FAR NORTHEAST IL SHORE...WITH THIS
SCENARIO POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE
SYNOPTICALLY. SLOWED MENTION OF FOG IN THE HOURLY GRIDS TO THE
PREDAWN HOURS GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OVERALL TAILORED GRIDS
TO FAVOR STATIONARY FRONT POSITION A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER A BIT SOUTH OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MAIN SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM...
221 PM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

DESPITE CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S ACROSS
VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SINKS SOUTH.
AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES OVER KANSAS.

THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL SINK BY DAWN. THINKING THE FRONT WILL DIP INTO
NORTHERN IL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BE AROUND THE I-88 CORRIDOR BY DAWN.
WHILE THE WHOLE AREA WILL BE CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...OTHER CONDITIONS
WILL VARY ALONG THE FRONT. AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE LOWS
IN THE LOW 40S TO THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE ALONG
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS TO 15 MPH. WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS WILL LIE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SO CONDITIONS MAY DIFFER FROM THE CURRENT
FORECAST DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP.

FOR RAIN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE FEATURE
SATURATION THROUGH THE FREEZING LEVEL AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF OMEGA.
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN/DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE FRONT/I-88
ESPECIALLY AFTER 4AM CDT. SOUNDINGS FURTHER SOUTH SATURATE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MINOR OMEGA VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING.
CAPPED POPS TO THE CHANCE RANGE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE DUE TO A
LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN FORCING AND THE FRONTS LOCATION.

ALSO EXPECTING FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE INVERSION FORMS.
GUIDANCE FEATURES FOG FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE AND
THINKING SOME OF THE FOG WILL MOVE OVER LAND WITH THE EAST WINDS.
THE DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND MOIST CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN FOG.
NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.

JEE

.LONG TERM...
234 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

STRONG LAKE ENHANCED FRONT WILL LIKELY BISECT THE AREA WED
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SETTING UP CLOSE TO I-80 AND LIKELY A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NORTH OF
THE FRONT BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE CHILLY LAKE WILL
RESULT IN A VERY STRONG AND SHALLOW INVERSION...BENEATH WHICH
MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED RESULTING IN A LOW OVERCAST. AS
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT CLIMB INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...THE
MARINE LAYER DISPLACING THAT MOIST AIR COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY
DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BLEEDING INLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT
NORTH OF THE FRONT. HIGHS TOMORROW NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN
THE 40S...THOUGH POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE NE IL
LAKEFRONT RANGING INTO THE 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

GUIDANCE ALL HAS LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY SUPPORT MORE OF A
DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS LIGHT RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER ABOVE THE
THICK STRATUS DECK. STEEP LAPSE RATES DO EXIST ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION...HOWEVER BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING LOOKS TO SET UP TO
OUR NORTH OVER WI. SOUTH OF THE FRONT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK SMALL
AND HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME THOUGH PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH.

STRONG FRONT MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTH SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT BATTLING
AGAINST THE COLD LAKE AS SURFACE LOW RIDES THE FRONT INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. AGAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
FOG...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOULD SEE AN
UPTICK IN PRECIP NORTH OF THE FRONT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR PERHAPS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM THURSDAY USHERING IN COLDER AIR TO AREAS THAT MADE IT
INTO THE WARM SECTOR...AND PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF CHILLY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SOME
WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BIT OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT CHANCES LOOK LOW AND KEPT
ACCUMS OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEXT SYSTEM
ALREADY RESULTING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AND RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF VARY IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY HANGS BACK IN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WITH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO LOWER THAN AVG FORECAST CONFIDENCE. DOES APPEAR TO BE
SOME AGREEMENT IN THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME RAIN THIS WEEKEND BEING
IN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES WOULD
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK IF ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVING THE TROUGH OUT QUICKER. GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS FROM THE BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE.

IZZI

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

656 PM...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
SHIFT LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONE MINUTE WINDS
AT ORD HAVE ALREADY TURNED LIGHT NORTHERLY SO THIS MIGHT BE A
TREND THAT WILL REQUIRE REFINEMENT THIS EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT MDW/GYY MAY REMAIN GUSTY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
DIMINISHING AND THEN POSSIBLY SHIFTING NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS... POSSIBLY
STALLING NEAR GYY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHEASTERLY IS HIGH BUT CHANGES TO TIMING AND PREVAILING SPEEDS
MAY ALSO BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS.

GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH LOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
AROUND DAYBREAK AND THEN QUICKLY LOWERING INTO IFR AND THEN LIFR
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS COULD BE LOWER THEN
CURRENT FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING HOW LOW CIGS WILL BECOME.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY TANK OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOME OF THIS
LOWER VIS MAY ADVECT INLAND AND WHILE VISIBILITY UNDER 1SM IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONFIDENCE AWAY FROM THE
LAKE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS FORECAST.

PRECIP TRENDS APPEAR GENERALLY DRY THROUGH SUNRISE WITH A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRY PERIODS ESPECIALLY THROUGH AFTERNOON BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT
SO CONTINUED WITH SHOWER MENTION. AS CIGS LOWER AND THE LOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE...
WHICH IF THEY DEVELOP...COULD HELP PUSH VISIBILITIES TO 1SM OR
LESS. CMS

.MARINE...
234 PM CDT

FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD COMING UP ON THE LAKE. DEEPENING LOW OVER THE
PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW OVER ALL BUT
FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETTER CHANCE OF GALES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT NOW NORTHERN OPEN LAKE SO HAVE DELAYED START TIME
OF THE GALE WATCH A BIT. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS A PERIOD OF STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND TIGHT GRADIENT WOULD SUPPORT PERIOD OF
NORTHERLY GALES...PERHAPS HIGH END GALES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE GALE WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AS WELL AS THE OPEN LAKE.

IZZI

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP TO WILMETTE HARBORS UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.

GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
902 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016

The 00z ILX and DVN soundings indicated plenty of dry air below
500 mb across the area. The cold front appears to have moved south
to the Illinois-Wisconsin border, with a band of AC clouds showing
up on radar along the front. The dry low level air will be tough
to overcome in the initial stages of this precip event. Our
counties look to remain dry through at least sunrise, so have
removed all PoPs from the grids through 12z/7am. The farthest
south the front appears to reach is around 18z/1pm tomorrow, when
it approaches near northern Stark Co, then returns north as low
pressure approaches western IL and southerly low level flow works
to push the front back north.

There is reasonable agreement in the 00z models that low level
moisture below the 700 mb inversion will increase enough for some
low clouds to develop toward sunrise or shortly after, especially
along and north of I-74. Otherwise, a blanket of cirrus clouds
will prevail overnight. That layer of clouds along with steady
south winds will be enough to keep low temps well above normal in
the lower 50s across the board.

Overall, the forecast grids were in good shape, and other than the
removal of precip, only minor adjustments were done to
temp/dewpoint/wind grids. Updated info is already available.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016

Earlier mid and high clouds over the northern CWA has been lifting a
bit northward this afternoon, but plenty more are advancing across
Missouri and will overspread central Illinois through early evening.
Wind gusts over 30 mph are becoming more common east of I-55 and the
highest gusts the last several hours have been from Bloomington to
Champaign, where they are now reaching 40 mph as of 2 pm. Over the
Wind Advisory area of southeast Illinois, the gusts have been a bit
slower to ramp up, but gusts to around 35 mph are more common. This
is below advisory criteria, but the RAP and HRRR suggest a bit more
increase the remainder of the afternoon, so will let the advisory
ride for now.

Latest surface map showing frontal boundary draped from northern
Lake Michigan into central Iowa and into the central Plains. While
the boundary will sag southward tonight, it is progged by all the
models to only reach about the I-80 corridor by sunrise, with most
of the models keeping any precipitation near or north of it. Have
maintained some 20% PoP`s late tonight north and west of Peoria, as
the GFS and RAP hint at a bit of development toward sunrise, but
general thought is that the night should largely remain dry. Few
changes made to low temperatures, with lower 50s prevailing over the
entire forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016

One more breezy and unseasonably warm day is anticipated across
central and southeast Illinois on Wednesday. It will be dry for the
most part as well. The models have slowed a bit on the passage of an
approaching storm system, with the GFS slowing most considerably and
now close to matching the bulk of the other models. Have removed
thunderstorm mention from the daytime hours Wednesday. With the
slightly slower track of the system, the instability axis ahead of
the system`s cold front does not reach the forecast area until well
into the evening. Also, forecast soundings suggest strong capping in
place until just ahead of the front. Have maintained high PoPs
through most of Wednesday night, and kept thunderstorm chances in
place until FROPA (late Wednesday night into midday Thursday). The
precipitation associated with the system should pull east of the
area before temperatures fall far enough to support much in the way
of snow.

Cooler temperatures, but still near normal for late March, will
surge into the area to finish the week. The week should finish up
fairly quiet weather-wise as well, although a frontal system
approaching by late Saturday will bring rain chances back into the
area. While some spread still exists, model guidance is starting to
agree on a more progressive front, which would result in
precipitation chances pulling out by Sunday night. However, given
the lingering uncertainty/spread, left low PoPs in place into
Monday. If the progressive front suggested by the latest model runs
persists, Sunday night/Monday will end up dry.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016

A cold front draped across northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin
will drift slowly southward into northern Illinois tonight. The
consensus of short term model solutions ends up stalling the front
across northern Illinois tomorrow afternoon near I-80.
Precipitation chances in our forecast area over the next 24 hours look
to be limited by a strong inversion centered at 700 mb, which
becomes more prominent during the day tomorrow. Light rain chances
through 12z tonight should remain north of our terminal sites, but
borderline MVFR clouds will develop as far south as the I-74
corridor tomorrow morning and linger through the day. Have
included prevailing MVFR clouds at PIA and BMI after 14z, with no
mention of precipitation with this issuance. The southern
terminals were kept VFR with BKN clouds at 4K ft. Precip chances
appear to be focused later Wed night as the cold front pushes
across IL.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Shimon

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

656 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...
221 PM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
234 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

IZZI

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

.MARINE...
234 PM CDT

IZZI

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
652 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ056-057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Shimon

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

624 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...
400 AM CDT

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

QUIET AND MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WORK WEEK...AS
UPPER TROUGH WHICH PLAGUED THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS...AND ALLOWING A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD
TEND TO LIMIT ITS INLAND EXTENT HOWEVER...AND MAY EVEN PUSH IT
BACK TOWARD THE LAKE AFFECTING MAINLY THE ILLINOIS SHORE FROM
CHICAGO NORTHWARD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE MAINLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. BLEND OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS FROM MODELS SUPPORT
REACHING HIGHS AROUND 50 WELL WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER 40S RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.

MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE THEN RIDES THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT...MAKING SOUTH
WINDS TURN BREEZY TONIGHT AND MAINTAINING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT. GULF IS BLOCKED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...SO
WHILE WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA INTO TUESDAY...THE
FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH. WARMER AIR LOOKS TO SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25 MPH BRINGING THE WARMTH
RIGHT UP TO THE LAKE SHORE.

RATZER

.LONG TERM...
400 AM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION OF FLAT MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE
AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH RE-FOCUSES
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL SET UP QUITE A
GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GOOD 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS FROM THE LOW
40S NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH OF I-80 ON
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WELL...PRIMARILY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE STRONGER WESTERN TROUGH
APPROACHES. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP INTO THE CWA FROM
THE WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED
HAIL PRODUCING STORMS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL
PRODUCERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER SUPPORT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SPC
HAS INCLUDED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE WFO LOT CWA IN A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR DAY 3.

MODEL CONSENSUS DECREASES THURSDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF
BUT MUCH SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS. HAVE
GENERALLY USED A NAM/SREF BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD AS THESE ARE IN-BETWEEN OTHER VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO WET
SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN IL
THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH WITH PROFILES REMAINING MARGINAL ENOUGH
TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO NORTH OF THE IL/WI BORDER.
THE SLOWER/FARTHER SOUTH ECMWF COULD BE A MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW
PRODUCER ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL IF ITS TRACK WERE TO
VERIFY PERFECTLY...THOUGH FOR NOW PREFER THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLENDED APPROACH. ANY LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST.

A BRIEF LULL COMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND...WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGESTING TEMPS IN THE 40S-50S AND MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

RATZER

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND PICK UP SOME IN MAGNITUDE. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
FOR TODAY WILL BE TRYING TO DETERMINE HOW FAR INLAND A LAKE BREEZE
WILL PUSH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK OVER THE LAKE. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR
AND RAP BRING THE BOUNDARY CLOSE OR RIGHT OVER MDW/ORD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. RAP TURNS WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE TO PUSH INLAND...THE MAGNITUDE OF
WINDS MAY STAY BELOW 10KT IF DOES PUSH THROUGH AND SWING WINDS
AROUND TO THE EAST WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE IMPACTS TO SOME
DEGREE. UNTIL THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WILL KEEP
MENTION OF A WIND SHIFT OUT OF ORD/MDW...BUT DO HAVE MENTION OF
WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS AT GYY. THE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY
MORNING...WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BMD

.MARINE...
250 AM CDT

A WEAK TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
EXPECTED. A RIDGE AXIS CENTERED WEST OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PASS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND MIDDAY ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE LAKE
AS THE RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LAKE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE. THE LOW WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY...THEN GALES WILL FINALLY DIMINISH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

915 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

LATEST 00Z NAM AND MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL RUN SHOW PRECIPITATION
STARTING A LITTLE SLOWER THEN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS THE STORM
SYSTEM COMES OUT A BIT LATER.

FAVORED THE HRRRR OVER THE NAM REGARDING WRAPAROUND
PRECIPITATION...THE NAM HOLDS IT FOR A CONSIDERABLE LENGTH OF TIME
OVER PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHILE THE HRRR IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MATCHES THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO...HAVE EXPANDED THE BLIZZARD WARNING A BIT FURTHER EAST AFTER
18Z AS THE SNOW AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH PRODUCE 1/4 MILE VIS OR
LESS. FURTHER EAST HAVE LET HIGHLITES ALONE BUT DELAYED THEM TIL
AFTER 18Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

RED FLAG WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CHEYENNE
COUNTY COLORADO THIS HOUR AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST WELL OVER 25
MPH AND RH VALUES REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW IN SOUTHCENTRAL
WYOMING. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AND THEN INTO
NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THIS EVENING AND THEN START DETERIORATING
AS DYNAMICS FROM THE STRONG UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TOWARD SUNRISE. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MAINLY ALL SNOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FA BUT MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. STRONG
NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH WILL
CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WARNING
AREAS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. AREAS UNDER THE
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO SNOW. THE SNOW AND
WIND SHOULD START DECREASING WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
AND A BLIZZARD WARNING IN OVER THE NORTHWEST FA BORDERED BY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AND A HIGH WIND WARNING IN AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO
SNOW. HIGH WIND CRITERIA WILL BE MET ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH WIND SPEED WORDING WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE
HIGH WIND THREAT IN THOSE AREAS. SEE HIGHLIGHT DETAILS BELOW.

THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPIRATION AT 00Z.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE VERY LITTLE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
SNOW AND WIND WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM EXITS OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY TRAVERSE THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING
FROM WEST TO EAST AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE SNOW CHANCES THROUGH
AROUND NOON SATURDAY WITH RAIN MIXING BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ONCE MORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW AND PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM AS
THE GFS KEEPS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AND THE ECMWF SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA.
INITIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WEST OF
THE KANSAS COLORADO BORDER AND 1 INCH OR LESS IN AREAS EAST HOWEVER
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE CLOSELY AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE
AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE HIGH
PLAINS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 11Z. WINDS
BEGINNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH THEN STEADILY
VEERING TO THE WEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT.
AFTER 12Z STRATUS AND IFR CIGS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WINDS STEADILY
INCREASE...PEAKING AROUND MID AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 50KTS
EXPECTED. RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND 16Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE AROUND 1/2 MILE IN THE
20Z-22Z TIMEFRAME PLUS OR MINUS AN HOUR CREATING VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. AT THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL
BUT CIGS REMAIN MVFR/IFR.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS FROM TAF ISSUANCE 06Z WITH WINDS
INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10KTS...BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST
NEAR 12KTS. AROUND 07Z CIGS LOWER TO IFR AS STRATUS MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH...WINDS START TO GUST OVER 20KTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 10Z. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS
AND IFR CIGS BY 16Z. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
STARTS AROUND 18Z WITH WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40KTS. AFTER 20Z LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40-45KTS FROM THE NORTH
DEVELOPS WITH CIGS IFR.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ001-002-013.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR KSZ003-014.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ004-015-016-027>029-
041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ092.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ090-091.

NE...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR NEZ081.

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

545 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

Increased low temperatures expected Tuesday morning by several
degrees. Thick cirrus, mixing surface winds, and warming airmass
will all deter radiational cooling tonight, with some locations
not falling below 50 degrees. Increased sky cover to partly cloudy
through sunrise to account for broken cirrus.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

A trough of low pressure at the surface will move east across
western Kansas overnight as an upper ridge axis crosses the
Central Plains. Southwesterly winds across western Kansas will
decrease after sunset but still range from 10 to 15 mph. Based on
the boundary level winds overnight along with the warming expected
in the boundary layer the lows tonight are expected to fall back
mainly into the 40 to 45 degree range.

On Tuesday a trough of low pressure will redevelop and deepen over
eastern Colorado as a cold front drops south across the Northern
Plains into Nebraska. Wind speeds across western Kansas will
increase into the 15 to 25 mph range by mid day based on the mean
mixed layer winds forecast by the NAM and GFS. Afternoon
temperatures should easily climb into the 80s given the 24 hour
850mb temperature change from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday. These
unseasonably warm temperatures when combined with afternoon dew
points ranging from 20 to 30 degrees along with gusty southwest
winds will result in favorable conditions for extreme fire
behavior. Have therefore upgraded the fire watch to a red flag
warning for Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

On Tuesday night an upper level trough, which was located off the
coast of the pacific northwest earlier today, will cross the four
corners region as a surface cold front drops south out of Nebraska
and into northern Kansas. Models disagreeing on how far south this
surface boundary will move Tuesday night, however the GFS and
ECMWF were in good agreement focusing the better chances for
precipitation north of this front where mid level moisture,
frontogenesis and instability will be improving ahead of the
approaching upper level storm system. At this time confidence is
not high on which model may be more correct so am currently
leaning towards staying close to persistence with the timing of
the onset of precipitation during the day Wednesday. This trend
would continue to favor the further south solution of this mid
week upper level storm system. Surface frontal passage would also
be sooner than previously expected and given the tight surface
pressure gradient behind the cold front and 900mb to 850mb winds
forecast behind this front very windy conditions along with
falling afternoon temperatures will be possible, especially across
west central and north central Kansas.

Along with the increasing winds the chance for precipitation will
also be on the increase Wednesday afternoon as the upper low
begins to move out into the Central Plains. This precipitation
appears to begin as rain but by late day across northern Kansas
this precipitation will change over to all snow. Snow
accumulations across north central Kansas and portions of western
Kansas does appear likely but how much snowfall that is expected
at this time remains unclear given the uncertainty on exactly
where this frontogenetic band will be and how long it will linger
in any particular area. Based on the latest GFS and ECMWF snow
accumulations of up to two inches will be possible for areas
northwest of a Garden City to Larned line.

The wind and precipitation will taper off early Thursday as the
upper low lifts northeast as a surface ridge axis begins to build
into the West Central High Plains. A northwest to westerly down
slope flow will develop late week as another upper level
disturbance drops south out of British Columbia and into the
Pacific northwest. This will result in a brief warming trend
Thursday and Friday.

As this next system approaches the central Plains early this
weekend there will be another chance for precipitation along with
another cool down in temperatures. Freezing temperatures will be
returning for the Easter holiday.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

A weak surface boundary will cross far western Kansas this
afternoon. Near this surface boundary the southwest winds will
average between 10 and 15 knots. Further east, near and east of a
Dodge City to Hays line, southwest winds will range from 15 to
near 20 knots at times this afternoon. These gusty southwest winds
will fall back to near 10 knots after sunset. BUFR soundings along
with the latest RAP and HRRR indicate VFR conditions over the next
24 hours.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

Tuesday temperatures will average around 25 degrees above the
seasonal normals for this time of year. Give these warm afternoon
temperatures and afternoon dew points ranging from 20 to 30
degrees will yield relative humidity values between 5 to 15
percent. These dry conditions when combined with a gusty southwest
wind of 15 to 25 mph will produce extreme fire weather conditions.
A red flag warning has been issued Tuesday afternoon. Any out door
burning should be avoided.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 49 85 44 57 / 0 0 0 30
GCK 43 85 40 53 / 0 0 0 40
EHA 52 86 42 56 / 0 0 0 40
LBL 49 85 43 60 / 0 0 0 40
HYS 45 83 44 54 / 0 0 0 50
P28 49 86 50 67 / 0 0 0 10

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Tuesday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

246 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

...Updated Short term, Long term, and Fire Weather discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 45 85 44 57 / 0 0 0 30
GCK 40 85 40 53 / 0 0 0 40
EHA 48 86 42 56 / 0 0 0 40
LBL 45 85 43 60 / 0 0 0 40
HYS 41 83 44 54 / 0 0 0 50
P28 46 86 50 67 / 0 0 0 10

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Tuesday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1220 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

07Z water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low over the
northeastern Pacific with an upper level ridge downstream from the
desert southwest through the northern Rockies. This leaves northwest
flow over the central plains this morning. At the surface, a ridge
of high pressure was centered over east TX and a trough of low
pressure was gradually deepening across the northern high plains.

The forecast for today and tonight calls for dry weather to continue
as the northwest flow aloft does not appear to have any significant
waves within it. Additionally the surface ridge along the TX gulf
coast looks to slow down any low level moisture return as onshore
flow has yet to develop. Although the strengthening low pressure
system over the northern high plains will cause the pressure
gradient to become quite strong today causing winds to gust up to
35 MPH. It is not out of the question that the wind speeds could
flirt with wind advisory criteria this afternoon. But the pressure
gradient appears to fall just shy of what typically occurs when we
have wind advisory days. So will not issue one at this time but the
day shift will want to monitor trends today. Models mix the boundary
layer to around 875MB. With some warm air advection this should
cause highs to be in the 60s. With good insolation expected, went
with mid 60s to around 70 for highs today. Tonight`s temps should be
much more mild with the pressure gradient keeping the boundary layer
mixed. So lows are expected to be in the mid 40s with only some high
cirrus passing overhead.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

Upper trough over the Great Basin begins to deepen on Tuesday. In
turn southwesterly winds stronger upstream of the sfc low progged to
be centered over northwest KS by 00Z Wednesday. Portions of east
central KS may need a Wind Advisory as sustained speeds average in
the 25 to 30 mph with gusts in upwards of 40 mph. In addition to the
dry air mass in place, fire weather concerns remain for the
afternoon hours. Please see Fire Weather Discussion for more
information. Other main story for Tuesday is the warmth as h85 temps
may reach the lower 20C range, resulting in widespread lower 80s for
much of the area. As the cold front approaches north central Kansas
late afternoon Wednesday, the tightening pressure gradient and
compressional warming ahead of the boundary will likely see another
very warm afternoon as gusty southerly winds maximize at 20 to 30
mph sustained. Highs behind the front over north central KS are in
the lower 60s while low to upper 70s are expected elsewhere.
After the boundary passes through, temps quickly fall into the lower
30s Thursday morning. Thursdays readings in the upper 40s is the
only cool day for the week before southerly return flow recovers
highs into the 60s for the weekend. Lows are generally in the middle
to upper 30s.

Precip chances increase beginning Wednesday for areas north of
Interstate 70 as convergence enhances along the cold front. Track of
the sfc and parent low still varies between guidance with a decent
spread leading to lesser confidence in precipitation occurring,
especially south of Interstate 70. Northern areas near the Nebraska
border have consistently seen the better lift with the upper low
focusing towards Nebraska so have increased pops to likely Wednesday
evening into Thursday as the upper low phases as it exits northeast.
QPF amounts are still variable this far out between a tenth to half
of an inch, locally higher. Main concern is the presence of weak
elevated instability during the day Wednesday lending to a mention
of isolated thunder. As the system organizes Wednesday evening,
better chances for thunder shift further east into MO. Also noted
the colder air trending a bit faster than yesterday, dropping
profilers below freezing over north central KS by midnight. It
appears rain mixed snow is possible for the entire CWA by sunrise
Thursday with a transition to snow over north central KS. Amounts if
any would be minor or none due to warm ground temps. Next system
impacts the CWA Saturday with rain being the primary precip type.
Latest GFS and ECMWF still vary the speed and timing of the system
so have maintained low pops.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. With a strong low
level jet in place the boundary layer may only partially decouple
overnight tonight especially at MHK/TOP. This means between the
periods of occasional gusts low level wind shear will be possible
mainly between 3 to 8 am.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

The warm and windy conditions today are expected to lead to extreme
fire danger today and will upgrade the watch to a red flag warning.
The winds appear to obviously meet the criteria for a warning. The
main concern, as is usually the case, is the humidity. Since there
does not appear to be a strong surge of low level moisture from the
gulf yet, have generally gone with the dryer RAP and GFS solutions
for dewpoint temps. This gives me minimum RH values between 20 and
25 percent. While not exactly meeting criteria, feel like this is
close enough given our tendency to not get the RH values low enough.
Will keep the warning going into this evening as the southwesterly
winds look to remain strong past sunset. The thinking is this should
give the boundary layer RH a little more time to recover to around
40 percent before ending the warning.

On Tuesday, deep mixing within the boundary layer up to 700 mb is
possible, mixing RH values into the lower to middle 20s for most
of northeast Kansas. Winds are expected to be at 25 to 30 mph
sustained over east central KS through early evening. Confidence
is higher in the drier air being realized in addition to the
strong winds. Have decided to continue with the Fire Weather
Watch, likely needing a warning later today.

Wednesday also shows elevated fire concerns with the cold front and
the drier airmass entering north central Kansas by late afternoon.
Depending on where the cold front is positioned by late afternoon,
areas along and ahead of it show deeper mixing with southerly winds
at 25 to 30 mph sustained. RH values are forecast in the lower 20s
for areas along the Flint Hills and points eastward. Additional fire
headlines are likely needed in future forecasts.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Sanders
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters/Bowen

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

1216 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

At 12z Monday a 500mb ridge axis extended from the Four Corners
Region to Alberta. An upper level trough/low was located off the
coast of the Pacific Northwest. Across the Central and Northern
Rockies a westerly flow was present at the 700mb and 500mb level.
Along the lee of the Rockies a trough of low pressure extended
from eastern Montana to eastern Colorado. 850mb temperatures along
this trough axis ranged from +10C to +14C.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

A strong upper level ridge extended from Alberta/Saskatchewan
into the central Rockies early this morning. Short range models
continue to show this ridge spread eastward through today and
tonight and flattening out with time. A broad trough of low
pressure at the surface will continue to slowly deepen from the
western Dakotas into eastern Colorado through tonight. Low level
warm advection was ongoing early this morning and will continue
through today with 850 millibar temperatures climbing back up into
the mid teens to low twenties celsius from south central into
southwest Kansas, respectively. This should yield high temperatures
ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s today. The warm advection
pattern continues into tonight. This will result in even warmer
overnight lows generally in the 40s by Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

An upper level shortwave trough currently off the coast of northern
California will be moving onshore over the western states on Tuesday
while upper level flow becomes fairly zonal over the central High
Plains. Deeper atmospheric mixing will result in breezy conditions
along with highs well up into the 80s.

On Wednesday the upper system continues to track into the central
Plains with a closed low developing and moving out roughly across
northwest Kansas. There is a little uncertainty in the track of the
low as the 00z ECMWF shows it tracking through west central Kansas.
The cold front will be pushing south across the area during the
day Wednesday. The best chances for precipitation still appear to
be along and north of I-70 but will maintain high chance pops from
the Scott City area to Hays with decreasing chances farther south.
Any precipitation should be liquid during the day but colder air
pushing into the area late in the day into Wednesday evening could
bring a mix or changeover to snow. Any snow accumulations appear
to be minor at this time. As the surface low pushes east during
the day, the models show fairly strong winds developing behind the
cold front. Model 850 millibar winds increase into the 40-50 knot
range during the afternoon. For now have ramped up winds considerably
higher than the going forecast. If this trend continues, headlines
for high wind may be warranted.

The upper system heads east out of the High Plains Wednesday night.
Any lingering light rain or light snow will be ending during the
night. Thursday and Friday will see a short lived warming trend as
500 millibar heights build over the region and low level warm
advection redevelops. Another shortwave trough is progged to dive
into the central CONUS by the upcoming weekend with another chance
for rain, or possibly light snow, for western Kansas.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

A dry airmass and increasing winds today will create elevated
wildfire concerns across parts of the area. Strongest winds will
be over south central Kansas but it appears that dewpoints in
that area will be high enough to preclude any fire weather
headlines today.

On Tuesday, drier air spreads across all of southwest and central
Kansas. Winds will be a little stronger and model solutions have
the stronger winds and deeper mixing extending well through central
and south central Kansas. Will keep the current Fire Weather Watch
intact and will also extend it to include areas along and north of
Highway 96.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 77 45 86 44 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 81 40 85 40 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 82 48 85 42 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 81 45 87 43 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 76 41 84 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 73 46 88 50 / 0 0 0 0

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

615 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

A dry airmass and no real forcing should lead to VFR conditions.
Bigger concern are the winds, which will become gusty this
afternoon. The strong pressure gradient is expected to keep gusty
winds at the surface well into the evening and FOE may remain
gusty through 12Z Tue. Because of this, I`ve delayed the beginning
of LLWS, or in the case of FOE removed LLWS, in the forecast.
Think TOP and MHK, which are in the KS river valley, could have
winds diminish enough for LLWS Tue morning.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters/Bowen

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

559 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE WIND AND THE COMBINATION OF LOWER
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL AFFECT
GRASSLAND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY
INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS TODAY WILL LIKELY TO BE OFFSET
A BIT THIS AFTERNOON BY LOW LEVEL MIXING IN THE DRY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE CORRIDOR AND MAY FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO SO AT THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE GOING MAXS SEEM REASONABLE TODAY WITH
WARMEST READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH A
RECORD HIGH POSSIBLE AT RUSSELL. WHILE THE LOWEST DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...THE STRONGEST
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RESIDE ALONG/EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.
THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS STOUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE DRY-LINE/PACIFIC FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WARM SECTOR LOOK SLIM AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE FLUX WILL ARRIVE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER
WILL MAINTAIN MODEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR RAIN TO A WINTRY
MIX LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. PLAN TO FOLLOW
A NON-DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
COLD ADVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

COOLER/MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER LOOK ON
TRACK FOR THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID-WEEK
UPPER TROF WITH A WARMING TREND INTO FRIDAY. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A MEAN UPPER TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE AND COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS KANSAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY.
WHILE TIMING AND DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO NEED REFINEMENT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST COOLING AND PRECIP CHANCES
NEXT WEEKEND.

KED

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND BECOMES STRONG AND GUSTY AT ALL TERMINALS.
WITH VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING
WINDS IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE SURFACE OF 35+ KNOTS...COULD SEE SOME
STOUT WIND GUSTS FAIRLY EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER THE SUNSETS THIS
EVENING...WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT...BUT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ON THE REGION EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN
BREEZY. WITH DRY AIR MOVING OVERHEAD...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JMR

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE FLINT HILLS WESTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES. WHILE THE
CONDITIONS MAY BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL FURTHER EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FORECAST CONSENSUS IS TO GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

CONFIDENCE ON RED FLAG/EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
A BIT HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH THE
WARMEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...THOUGH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD ALSO PUSH CONDITIONS TO EXTREME OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FORECAST CONSENSUS SUPPORTED EXPANDING A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EVEN STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP-FREE AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
OR RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS.

KED

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 69 47 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 71 46 85 54 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 69 47 83 55 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 68 48 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 68 48 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 74 44 85 47 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 74 45 86 48 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 72 46 85 52 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 71 46 84 53 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 66 47 78 59 / 0 0 0 10
CHANUTE 65 46 78 59 / 0 0 0 10
IOLA 65 46 77 58 / 0 0 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 65 46 77 59 / 0 0 0 10

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

251 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

RAP and NAM forecast soundings show a strong nocturnal inversion
has set up and seen in surface obs by the light or calm winds.
Additionally profiler data is showing the low level jet beginning
to strengthen. With forecast soundings maintaining the inversion
until mid morning, have updated the forecast to include LLWS until
the boundary layer begins to mix out.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters/Bowen

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

740 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS MAINLY TO ADJUST THEM
TOWARD THE LATEST SKY/T/TD OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SLACKENING TO NEAR CALM AND AN INVERSION
SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN VALLEYS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND SOME
CAA...ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE
UPPER 20S FOR PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FIVE
DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL RATHER DRY...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...THOUGH
SOME UPPER TEENS ARE NOTED IN THE FAR EAST AND ON THE RIDGES...
WHILE SOME LOW 30S ARE BEING REPORTED CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE
BORDER. THE DRIER AIR MAY BE SLOWING THE FROST FORMATION FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA...BUT AT SME THERE IS ACTUALLY ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
TOUCH OF FOG ATTM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH EXITING TO THE
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. THE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT WITH TIME INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE ZONAL DURING THE DAY WHILE THE BULK
OF ANY ENERGY STAYS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...THE FLOW OVER KENTUCKY WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHWEST TACK AND
EVEN SOME SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. GIVEN THE
HIGH LEVEL OF MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM FOR WX SPECIFICS...WHERE THERE
ARE ANY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY...AND LIKELY FROSTY...
START TO THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ENOUGH SUN WILL BE SEEN TO HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. ANOTHER NIGHT
OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SET UP A PRETTY GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FROST IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. MORE SUNSHINE LATER THAT DAY...ALONG WITH
WINDS PICKING UP SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LIKELY LEADING TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR CONCERNS...MORE DETAILS ON THIS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER. HAVE
ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO SIGNIFICANTLY ADJUST FOR TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...
ZEROED THEM OUT IN LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW REGIME. THAT SAID A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PLACED TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC AND WE WILL RESIDE IN THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE HIGH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WELL ESTABLISHED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...AND 40 TO 50 KNOT JET AT THE 850MB
LEVEL. THIS AS WE ARE TRAPPED BETWEEN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEREFORE OVERALL GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL COMBINE WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

NOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAIN...THAT WILL IN FACT BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR
THE REGION LATE WEEK. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. NOW FOR THE GUIDANCE THERE REMAINS AT LEAST
SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/CLOSED LOW AND THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING WITH THE
SURFACE FEATURES. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO
EVEN THE PAST 3 PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER
BUT STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUN. THE WPC FOLKS ARE
NOT SOLD ON THE OPERATIONAL AND STUCK WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS TO
LESSEN THE RUN TO RUN CHANGES. THEREFORE WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH SHOULD DO A SIMILAR JOB. RIGHT NOW STILL KEEP
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND LESSEN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. NOW THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON QPF IN
RELATION TO BEING SPLIT BY THE UPPER FORCING GOING NORTH AND THE
OVERALL BETTER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. RIGHT NOW MODEL BLENDS WOULD
SUGGEST WE SEE WIDESPREAD HALF A INCH OR MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THIS WOULD FINALLY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WHILE ONLY
MARGINAL AT BEST INSTABILITY IS SEEN WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SLIGHT
THUNDER...BUT RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS COULD CONTAIN FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS
GIVEN THE 50 TO 60 KNOT 850 MB JET THEY COULD PARTIALLY MIX DOWN.

AFTER THIS SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS EAST ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD
BE DRY LATER IN THE DAY. NOW FOR THE WEEKEND MORE CONVOLUTED
GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES EVIDENT. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP SATURDAY
DRY...THIS AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP IT DRY. NOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DO STICK WITH THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH DOES INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS. THE 00Z
GFS AND THE ENSEMBLE HAVE BEEN MOST ROBUST WITH BRINGING
OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THEREFORE WILL NOT BRING POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN THE BLEND. THIS WILL SYSTEM BE AIDED BY A
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SWINGS EAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. NOW THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
SETUP...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY AND CONSISTENCY WITH
OTHER OFFICES WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU...GENERALLY IN THE 4-6K FEET AGL
RANGE...WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
CLEARING. LIGHT WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY...SETTLING TO LIGHT IN THE EVENING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

GIVEN THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VERY LOW AFTERNOON/EVENING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON TUESDAY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND HIGHER WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CLOSE TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH RIGHT NOW...BUT WE MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER ONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IF MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THESE CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING SOME FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW RH VALUES WILL LEAD
TO A CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
THEN LOOKS TO BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
FIRE WEATHER...KAS/GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

411 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU...GENERALLY IN THE 4-6K FEET AGL
RANGE...WILL GRADUALLY THIN TONIGHT. LOOK FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS IN
A SIMILAR RANGE TO RETURN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
FIRE WEATHER...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

345 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST BY TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND A DEVELOP
LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WINDS AND MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS AS HIGHS SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S ON
TUESDAY...AND NEAR 70 BY WEDNESDAY. THE WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WE
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
WESTERN US AND PUSH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS
ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM...SO RAIN CHANCES
HAVE CONTINUED TO GO UP WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THIS SYSTEM
IS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND WE SHOULD DRY OUT AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY
OVER EASTER WEEKEND...SETTING UP A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON THIS IDEA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
FIRE WEATHER...KAS/GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

731 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
AND RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTED
THEM USING THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN ZONAL FLOW TRAVERSES THE REGION. SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES FOR AREAS NORTH OF I 80 WERE THUS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE RELATIVE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS
AS WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES TO THE SOUTH OF THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE/PERSISTENCE WAS USED FOR TONIGHTS
LOWS...AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE
PROJECTED FOR A THURSDAY APPROACH...AND NIGHTTIME PASSAGE ACRS
THE UPPER OHIO REGION. INCREASING POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
TIME FRAME...WITH CULMINATION IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS. THUNDER
STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH FRONT...BUT MODELS DIFFER IN THE
MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/HENCE INSTABILITY. DESPITE
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY DUE TO
THAT INSTABILITY LIMITATION.

ENSUING COLD ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY SHOWER PROBS INTO THE
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
PITTSBURGH AROUND DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY ADVECTION SHOULD DRY THE WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO THEN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THAT SCENARIO WOULD BRING
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE IS HIGH. THE ONLY
LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER ARE FKL AND DUJ
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE CIGS COULD DIP BELOW 1KFT.

GUSTY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED WITH DUSK AND EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 15KTS THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. WITH AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS A CONCERN
AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS AS
WELL DURING THE 02Z-09Z WINDOW.

CIGS WILL BE VFR UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE SOUTH OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL STAY ALONG LAKE ERIE...HOWEVER THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF IFR CLOUDS MAKING IT TO FKL AND DUJ...HOWEVER
LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS PREFER TO KEEP AN OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AFTER 20Z...WHICH SHOULD SCOUR
OUT ANY CLOUDS BETWEEN 030-050 AND ALLOW CIRRUS TO
RETURN...ESPECIALLY FROM LBE-PIT-HLG-ZZV AND PLACES SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THURSDAY AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS CARRY INTO
FRIDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...98
AVIATION...98

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1050 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.UPDATE...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING. WILL GIVE THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT
THE OPPORTUNITY TO DIGEST THE FULL 00Z SUITE BEFORE MAKING A
DETERMINATION ON THE HEADLINES.

MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH FOR IS THE STRONG AND DEEP FGEN BAND THAT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN CWA WED MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ITEM
NUMBER ONE...A COLDER PRECIPITATION TYPE SOLUTION (PREDOMINATELY
ALL SNOW) APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF M46...WITH A STRAIGHT
RAIN TO THE SOUTH. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ITEM NUMBER
TWO...PRECIPITATION RATES COULD BE QUITE HIGH WITHIN A NARROW BAND
BETWEEN 16-23Z WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO UPRIGHT
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION AND DEEP LOW STATIC STABILITY TO SOME
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. UNKNOWN YET...WHERE EXACTLY THE FGEN BAND
WILL BECOME POSITIONED. GUIDANCE BOTH 12KM NAM/13KM RAP AND THE
4KM NAM IS SUGGESTING A MESOSCALE BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
OF ROUGHLY 25 MILES WIDE...OR THE WIDTH OF A COUNTY. OVERALL...THE
NAM/ECMWF CONSENSUS ON PLACEMENT OF THE BAND HAS BEEN REASONABLY
GOOD. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN OSCILLATIONS OF THE PLACEMENT IN
THE HOURLY OUTPUT OF THE RAP. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE LOW QPF
OF THE 12Z ARW/NMM HIRES SOLUTIONS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE FGEN BAND TO ACTIVATE LOWER IN THE COLUMN OR
FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD RUN THE RISK OF SEEING MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALL AS RAIN AND LEAVE THE EVENT UNDERACHIEVING IN A
BIG WAY. WITH ALL OF THAT PRESENTED...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES TO FALL
MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME PORTION OF THE WINTER STORM
WATCH.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 747 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

A PACIFIC ORIGIN JET STREAK WILL PHASE AGAINST/INTO THE MAIN POLAR
BELT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THIS IS ONGOING AND
IS RAMPING UP THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO NOW THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TWO MAIN CHANGES
THIS TAF CYCLE WERE TO DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND TRANSITION THE TAF MUCH
COLDER AND SNOWIER AT KMBS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WENT SOLIDLY IFR
IN LIGHT SNOW AT KMBS...BUT TRENDS ARE INCREASINGLY POINTING TOWARDS
A POTENTIAL LIFR PERIOD FOR HEAVY FGEN SNOWFALL AT KMBS SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH EXACTLY
WHERE IN THE COLUMN THE FGEN WILL ACTIVATE AND ALSO HOW NARROW THIS
MESOSCALE BAND WILL BECOME. MODEL DATA IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
PTYPE WILL REMAIN RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS KFNT. TRENDED THE
PRECIPITATION MENTION TO DRIZZLE FOR LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING (SOUTH) AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE STRIPS OUT FOR A
TIME.

FOR DTW...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL SEE CIG HEIGHTS DROP
BELOW 5000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL SURFACE FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TERMINALS
SOMETIME 14-16Z WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST FLOW OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
SUPPORTED AT/AROUND 16Z WITH FLOW SWITCHING 030-040 AT 7 KNOTS OR
GREATER. PERIODS OF MVFR LIGHT RAIN EXPECTING THROUGHOUT WED BEFORE
TRANSITIONING OF IFR CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
* HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

DISCUSSION...

MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAINLY TIMING ISSUES WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN TONIGHT...LOOKING TO
START A COUPLE HOURS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE WAA PATTERN THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND WILL KEEP THE AREA MILD OVERNIGHT.

MUCH ATTENTION REMAINS ON THE MIDWEEK STORM AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR A PORTION OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE THOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO PTYPE AND AMOUNTS. THE SYSTEM WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE MOIST WITH
PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCHES AND QPF TOTALS AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH THE EVENT. A SFC FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND A GOOD FEED OF WARM AIR ALONG THE ISENTROPIC SLOPE THUS
A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT SEEMS LIKELY. POSITIONING OF THE FRONT
WILL BE KEY TO WHERE THE SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND PURE RAIN WILL
FALL. THE COMPLEX AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL CUT INTO ANY
SNOWFALL TOTALS BUT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY EXTENDING
SOUTH TO THE I69 CORRIDOR. FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE HAS BEEN TO LEAN
MORE TOWARD A FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO AND AWAY FROM A HEAVY SNOW
SCENARIO DUE TO THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR IN THE BL AND DEPTH OF WARM
AIR /900-750MB/ ADVECTING IN ALOFT. WITH THE POSSIBLE DURATION OF
THE FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTH BEING FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OVER A QUARTER INCH. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM,
TIMING, AND PTYPE ISSUES...WILL HOLD ONTO THE WATCH ONE MORE PERIOD.
OVERALL WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT NORTH OF I69
OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

AS FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE 850-700MB FRONT WILL
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IN THE 15-18Z TIME WINDOW AS ENERGY EJECTING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH PHASES WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN
ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME COMPRESSION OF THE FRONTAL SFC IN
BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SFC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
SINKING SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL 700MB FRONT WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN MI
WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT AS THE LOW DRAWS NEARER WE WILL LOOK FOR A
RESURGENCE OF FGEN ALONG THE 850MB FRONT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY
AND NORTHERN THUMB. THIS SECONDARY FGEN BAND WILL THEN SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW WILL NOT LIFT THROUGH LOWER MI UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING AND
LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN MI WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME
NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. SO PTYPE
CONCERNS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THE LOW
LIFTING THROUGH SE MI WILL ALLOW THE WARM SECTOR TO CLIP OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO HAVE INTRODUCED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF M59. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEALING WITH THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND DEFORMATION REGION OF THE EXITING LOW. WILL ONCE
AGAIN LOOK TO THERMAL PROFILE CHANGING WITH THE COOLER AIR WRAPPING
IN BUT LOOKS LIKE A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

THE MID WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST AND TAKE ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION OUT OF SE MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TAKE ITS PLACE AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST ONE DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL KEEP SMALLER SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING STEADILY
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
COMMENCE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SUCH SYSTEM FOR THE GREAT LAKES.
TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS LOW PREDICTABILITY DURING
THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PERIOD WHILE ENOUGH WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR AREA
ONCE IT DOES ARRIVE...OR POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO EXPECTATIONS ON PATTERN
RECOGNITION THAT SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG UPPER JET AND
TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WOULD THEN LEAVE BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND STALL ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THIS FRONT WHILE STRENGTHENING.
THIS LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAT
WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY BEHIND THE PASSING LOW. GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON ALONG WITH STEADY SNOW.

HYDROLOGY...

A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE
DETROIT AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE ABOUT A HALF OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS AND AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE SOME MAY FALL AS SNOW. THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WITH THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
EXIT THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL. THIRTY
SIX HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND
SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...DRAINAGES AND SMALL CREEKS.
MAIN RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES AND
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LHZ361>363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...DRK/BT
MARINE.......DRC
HYDROLOGY....DRC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

758 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BTWN TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS. PLAINS RIDGING IS OUT AHEAD OF A TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. ENERGY OVER SRN NV IN THE BASE OF THAT
TROF WILL SPIN UP A WINTER STORM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WED NIGHT NIGHT/THU. CLOSER TO HOME...STREAK OF -SN IN
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME AND AIDED BY SHARPER FGEN HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FCST AREA AFTER LEAVING A DUSTING TO AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF DIMINISHING LIGHT PCPN
EXITING NE MN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE
N AND E THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO
NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. 12Z CYPL SOUNDING AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
TODAY SUPPORTS THIS DRYING TREND AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE NRN ONTARIO
WITH ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NE LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL THUS CARRY A
MENTION OF -SN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN END PCPN WNW TO ESE AS
FORCING EXITS AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES. EVEN IF LOW CLOUDS DO SCATTER
OUT OR CLEAR OUT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER 850MB
TEMPS -9/-10C MAY SUPPORT STRATOCU EXPANSION LATE TONIGHT AND/OR WED
MORNING. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLEARING...TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE
TEENS AT SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

ON WED...SHORTWAVE OVER SRN NV WILL EMERGE OUT OVER THE WRN PLAINS
AS A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ORGANIZES
OVER KS. DOWNSTREAM...TIGHTENING CONFLUENCE ZONE BTWN SRN STREAM
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WRN PLAINS TROF AND CONTINUED NRN STREAM
TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET
FROM NRN ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR EASTWARD. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET WILL HELP PCPN EXPAND TO THE N OF
A NEARLY STATIONARY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW TO LAKE
ERIE. GIVEN THE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER NRN ONTARIO ON WED AND THE MAIN FGEN ZONE S
OF THE AREA...WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLOWER NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF PCPN
INTO FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI WED AFTN. FCST WILL SHOW SCHC POPS
SPREADING INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY DURING THE AFTN...BUT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL 22-23Z OVER THE SRN HALF
OF THE COUNTY. CHC POPS WILL EXTEND AS FAR N AS KIMT/KESC AT 23Z.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING STRATOCU THAT
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE W AND NCNTRL...EXPECT A GRADUAL THICKENING OF
HIGH CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 30S...A
STEADY NE WIND WILL ADD A CHILL...ESPECIALLY IN MENOMINEE COUNTY
WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING DOWN THE BAY WILL ENHANCE WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...FOCUS IS ON GREAT LAKES STORM LATE WED AFTN INTO THU MORNING...

UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS TO ROCKIES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON WED MORNING THEN LIFTS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THU AND
OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRI. TROUGH ALOFT MAINTAINS POSITIVE OR
NEUTRAL TILT AS STRONGEST JET ENERGY REMAINS AHEAD OF TROUGH. SFC
LOW 987MB-991MB DEEPENS OVER KS THROUGH MIDDAY WED THEN MOVES TO
NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO BY WED EVENING. FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE VCNTY OF SOUTHERN
IOWA TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI BY WED
EVENING. SHARP H85 FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT...VCNTY OF
SOUTHERN MN TO CNTRL WI AND CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT BAND OF
SNOW TO STREAK AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE H85 FRONT AND WITHIN
REGION OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENEIS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER LATE
WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT...FARTHER NORTH H85 TROUGH MAY PUSH THE
INITIAL FGEN SNOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN UPR MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...NE
WINDS TO NORTH OF THE FGEN CIRCULATION WILL BE ADVECTING DRY AIR
OVER UPR MICHIGAN FM LARGE HIGH OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...ULTIMATELY
HELPING TO SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF SYSTEM SNOW.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO
THU. SOME INIDIATION THAT WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY BRING HEAVIER SNOW FARTHER
NORTH. DEFORMATION AND PVA NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SNOW FM NORTHEAST WI INTO AT LEAST SCNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS -8C OR LOWER INDICATE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR WHERE THE LARGE SCALE SNOW IS FALLING. THE MAIN QUESTION THAT
REMAINS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL SECONDARY SURGE
OF SNOW TRACK ON WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN IS
STILL SHOWN TO BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF HEAVIER SYNOPTIC SNOW
WITH QPF AMOUNTS OVER 0.60 INCHES AT LEAST FOR MNM...BUT LATEST
TRENDS FOR NAM/GFS AND GEM SHOW LESS QPF OVER NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN
AS THEY TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND POSITION
OF SFC LOW. NOW IF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW IS FARTHER NORTH THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES ATTM...THEN GOING WATCHES WOULD HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED NORTH FOR HEAVIER SYNOPTIC SNOW AND ALSO WOULD HAVE HEAVIER
SNOW FOR HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR NORTH CENTRAL WITH
FAVORABLE NE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. VOLITILITY OF THE
MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS UP IN SREF MEMBERS WHICH SHOW LEAST SPREAD AT
KMNM /MIN OF 4 INCHES AND MAX OF 12 INCHES/ WHILE JUST NORTH OF
THERE AT KIMT/KESC AND KMQT...SPREAD RANGES FM LESS THAN 2 INCHES TO
OVER 10 INCHES.

WILL KEEP MENOMINEE IN WINTER STORM WATCH AS MAJORITY OF HEAVIER
SNOW WOULD NOT MOVE IN UNTIL WED NIGHT. NE WINDS OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -8C WOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. EVEN WITH THE WET SNOW...EXPOSURE TO NE WINDS OFF OF
THE BAY...OVER 35 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER...WILL ALSO RESULT IN
BLSN/LOW VSBY ISSUES IF WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY SNOW AFFECTS THE AREA.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF NORTHERN EDGE OF SYSTEM SNOW...DID NOT ADD ANY
OTHER PARTS OF UPR MICHIGAN INTO WATCH...THOUGH AT THE LEAST COULD
SEE NEED FOR EVENTUAL ADVISORY FOR REST OF SCNTRL AND SOUTHEAST CWA.

REST OF EXTENDED...DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SFC LOW TRACKS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN LK HURON BY THU EVENING. N TO NE WINDS ARE
CYCLONIC IN WAKE OF THE LOW ACROSS LK SUPERIOR BUT H85 TEMPS DOWN TO
-10C ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT. EXPECT COLDEST TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THU NIGHT OVER INTERIOR WEST. MOST OF FRI SHOULD BE
DRY WITH TEMPS PUSHING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. TEMPS GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH WEEKEND AS TROUGH CROSSES REGION. BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WITH
THIS FEATURE IS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. MAY SEE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING OVER THE SOUTH. LOOKS MAINLY DRY EASTER
INTO MON. STORM EARLIER ECMWF RUN SHOWED IS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SUPPOSE IT COULD COME BACK WEST...BUT
RIGHT NOW SOLUTION IS TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
TEMPS WILL STAY AT OR BLO NORMAL AS THE COOLER WEATHER PATTERN THAT
SETTLED IN LATE LAST WEEK PERSISTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

-SN WILL DIMINISH/END THIS EVENING OVER EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA AS
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY ARRIVES FROM THE N AND E THRU TONIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS EARLY EVENING AT KIWD AND KSAW WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT KSAW BY
LATE EVENING AND AT KIWD AFT MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX
THROUGH PERIOD. WITH A COOL AIR MASS AND UPSLOPE ME FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR...MVFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP FOR A TIME EARLY WED MORNING AT
KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS SFC HIGH PRES DRIFTS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. TONIGHT/WED SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY
15-25KT WINDS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...STRONGEST OVER THE
FAR W DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING...AND 10-20KT WINDS OVER
THE E HALF. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 20-30KT WED NIGHT/THU AS THE
LOW PRES TRACKS THRU THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MIGHT SEE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E ON THU. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THRU THU
NIGHT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON FRI
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES TROF WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ221-248-250.

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

151 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES.
PASSING SHRTWV/ATTENDANT COLD FROPA IS TRIGGERING SOME SCT SN
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL DRYNESS OF
THE AIRMASS PER LOCAL 00Z RAOBS AND ONLY SCT CLDS PER STLT IMAGERY
IS RESTRICTING THE COVERAGE OF THE SN SHOWERS ALONG THE FNT. DESPITE
SOME CHILLY AIR UPSTREAM IN NW ONTARIO...WHERE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS -17C
AT YPL...THAT IS FOLLOWING THE FROPA...STLT IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY SCT
LK EFFECT CLDS OVER LK SUP WITH VERY DRY AIR NOTED ON THE 00Z YPL
RAOB. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...THERE IS A SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE
NRN ROCKIES ON THE TOP OF THE WRN RDG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LES CHCS THIS MRNG AND
THEN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WAA SN TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.

TDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME COLD AIR WL BE STREAMING ACRS MAINLY THE E HALF
OF LK SUP...H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO FALL NO LOWER THAN ABOUT -13 TO
-14C OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS...
MARGINAL H85 TEMPS...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV AND WEAK LLVL CNVGC FCSDT...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLD-SCT SN
SHOWERS OVER THE E THIS MRNG. OPTED TO REMOVE ALL POPS OVER THE FAR
W GIVEN EVEN WEAKER COOLING FCST THERE. ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG
AXIS AND DIURNAL HEATING WL END ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE E HALF.
DESPITE THE INFLUX OF RATHER DRY LLVL AIR...EXPECT INCRSG MID/HI
CLDS RELATED TO WAA AHEAD OF FALLING MSLP IN THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF
SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.

TNGT...MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A BAND
OF SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-290K SFCS /ABOUT
H85-675/ SETTING UP OVER THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF A WARM FNT ORIENTED
IN THE UPR MIDWEST OUT AHEAD OF A LO PRES THAT IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR
MINNEAPOLIS BY 12Z TUE. COMBINATION OF THIS WAA/ACCOMPANYING DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/BAND OF MID LVL FGEN/SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF
100KT H3 JET MAX STREAKING THRU THE UPR MIDWEST WL CAUSE AN AREA OF
SN TO DVLP W-E. AXIS OF SHARPEST FCST FGEN APPEARS TO FAVOR THE
NCENTRAL CWA FOR THE HEAVIER SN. CONCERNS INCLUDE HOW QUICKLY LLVL
DRY AIR CAN BE OVERCOME AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER DEEP LYR FORCING TO
THE S. WITH THE LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...TENDED TO KEEP POPS/QPF A
BIT LOWER IN THE EVNG. FCST H7-75 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ARND 2.5G/KG
WOULD FAVOR 2-3 INCHES OF SN IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD WHEN THE SHARPER
FORCING/UVV ARE FCST...BUT TENDED CLOSER TO ABOUT 2 INCHES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF THE LLVL DRY AIR AND EXPECTED SN/WATER
RATIOS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 15:1. FCST THERMAL FIELDS ALSO INDICATE
SOME RA COULD MIX WITH THE SN OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL...WHERE PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTEST FARTHER FM THE AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE OVER THE COMING WEEK...WITH A BAND OF
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEARING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A SWATH OF SNOW TIED TO A LAYER OF LOW-
LEVEL FGEN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CWA AWAY
FROM THE WI BORDER IN THE MORNING. SEE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR
INFORMATION REGARDING THE ONSET OF THIS SNOW. AN EVENT TOTAL OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO E
TO NE WIND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
SNOWFALL...TRAVEL FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE SOMEWHAT
HAZARDOUS. WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIX WITH RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT GIVEN EFFECTS FROM DYNAMIC
COOLING...HAVE FAVORED A SCENARIO WITH MORE OF A MIX THAN A COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AWAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. THERE...THE
SNOW MAY TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AS DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS
AND CLOUD LAYER MIN TEMPS RISE TO -6 TO -8C. LOWERING TEMPS AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECTING IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL TRANSITION THE PRECIP BACK TO FLURRIES FOR THE
IMMEDIATE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON THE EVOLUTION OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CANADIAN GEM...ECMWF..AND EVEN SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BRING A SLOWER-MOVING AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS/NAM REMAIN FASTER WITH A MORE NEUTRAL
TILT. THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE MUDDLED AS THE PHASING OF A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ENHANCES THE SYSTEM. ALL SOLUTIONS BRING AT
LEAST SOME SNOW TO PORTIONS OF UPPER MI...BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING...INTENSITY...AND NW EXTENT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE BETTER
MODEL CLUSTERING (CANADIAN/ECMWF) WHILE KEEPING IN MIND THAT A NW
SHIFT IN LINE WITH THE GFS/NAM CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN ALMOST NO AGREEMENT BY
THIS POINT OTHER THAN WITH THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS/CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING A ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIP SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH THE GFS ONCE AGAIN FAVORING THE
QUICKER SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

WITH INFLUX OF LLVL DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING CNDN HI PRES BLDG INTO THE
UPR LKS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THRU THE DAY DESPITE
INCRSG MID/HI CLDS. SCATTERED SHALLOW CU WILL PREVAIL AS WELL.
EXPECT A BAND OF SN TO THE N OF A STNRY FNT IN THE UPR MIDWEST TO
OVERSPREAD UPR MI TNGT...WITH LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR AND VSBYS INTO
THE IFR RANGE CONTINUING INTO TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

WITH A HI PRES RIDGE MOVING OVER THE UPPER LAKES TODAY...EXPECT
DIMINISHING WINDS UNDER 15-20 KTS. UNDER A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND LO PRES CENTERS RUNNING ALONG A LO
PRES TROUGH IN THE LOWER LAKES...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL PREVAIL
TUE THROUGH THU. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN WITH A HI PRES RIDGE ON
FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

757 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LES CHCS THIS MRNG AND
THEN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WAA SN TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE OVER THE COMING WEEK...WITH A BAND OF
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEARING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 757 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

WITH INFLUX OF LLVL DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING CNDN HI PRES BLDG INTO THE
UPR LKS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THRU THE DAY DESPITE
INCRSG MID/HI CLDS. EXPECT A BAND OF SN TO THE N OF A STNRY FNT IN
THE UPR MIDWEST TO OVERSPREAD UPR MI TNGT...WITH LOWERING CIGS TO
MVFR AND VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

414 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LES CHCS THIS MRNG AND
THEN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WAA SN TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE OVER THE COMING WEEK...WITH A BAND OF
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEARING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHSN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
THIS MRNG WILL TAPER OFF OR END BY MIDDAY MONDAY. DRY AIR AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN LOW END
VFR CIGS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...SO LEFT PRECIP OUT OF TAFS. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING SOME
LOWERING OF CLOUD CIGS...PERHAPS TO HIGH END MVFR BY LATE
EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND LOWERING OF CIGS WILL OCCUR AFT 06Z TUE WHEN DEEP LAYER
MOISTENING OCCURS WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

412 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LES CHCS THIS MRNG AND
THEN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WAA SN TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN SPREADING SNOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AND LARGER AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH. A MIX WITH RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTH PER...NAM/GFS FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THERE IS A SMALLER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
SOUTH AT THE ONSET WHILE TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING. HOWEVER...ANY
FROZEN PCPN WOULD BE VERY BRIEF...GIVEN THE MINIMAL/TRANSIENT ELEVATED
WARM LAYER. THE PCPN WILL BE SUPPORTED BY 285K-295K ISENTRROPIC
ASCENT THROUGH THE STEEP 800-650 MB FRONTAL ZONE. WITH 2-3G/KG
AVAILABLE DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT AND SLR VALUES AROUND
10/1 EXPECTED...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ARE LIKELY
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE SNOW MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN N CNTRL UPPER
MI WHERE UPSLOPE NE FLOW WILL INCREASE.

WED THROUGH THU...SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE SHRTWV...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
AND QPF INTO THE WRN LAKES COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM
REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA AND POSSIBLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. THE
THE CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND VERY DRY
AIR WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH PRES...SOLUTIONS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SEEM
MORE PLAUSIBLE...PER WPC. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD...THE FCST MAINTAINS A CONSENSUS FCST WHICH BRINGS CHANCE
POPS OVER THE THE AREA. HOWEVER...HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE...PER THE LOWER PROB GFS SCENARIO.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THE
POSITION/TIMING/STRENGTH OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES THAT COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE AREA...GIVEN CONTINUED LARGE MODEL SPREAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

737 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS OUR STORM FOR WEDNESDAY WORKING
ACROSS UTAH. AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH COLORADO
TONIGHT...CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER. MAIN CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS A REDUCTION OF
POPS WITH THE EXPECTED LEAD FGEN BAND ALONG WHAT AMOUNTS TO A WARM
FRONT AROUND H7. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/RAP HIGHLIGHT THE
PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT AND IT IS VERY DRY AIR THAT IS JUST SLOW TO
BUDGE BELOW 10K FT. THE MODEL THAT IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
MOISTENING THIS LATER IS THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE RAP HAS OUR AREA
DRY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HOPWRF MEMBERS NOT SHOWING
ANYTHING COMING INTO THE WEST UNTIL AROUND 9Z...SO WAS RELUCTANT
TO GO AS AGGRESSIVE AS WHAT THE GFS HAS. FOR POPS THOUGH...DID
FOLLOW A TREND OF THE CAMS...WHICH SHOWS A BAND OF PRECIP MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z WITH THAT BAND TRYING TO
FILL IN OVER TOWARD RED WING THROUGH 12Z. FOR P-TYPE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE 50S SOUTH OF I-94...WILL TAKE SOME TIME
FOR US TO COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW...WITH INITIAL PRECIP
STARTING OUT AS A MIX THAT WILL PROGRESSIVELY CHANGE TO MOSTLY
SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAINS A CHALLENGE
AS MODEL SOLUTIONS TODAY HAVE ADDED MORE SPREAD TO THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST. IN A NUTSHELL...THE NAM AND GFS HAVE PUSHED THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH...WHICH WOULD GIVE AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TWIN CITIES HEAVY SNOWFALL...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS PUSHED THINGS QUITE A BIT TO THE SOUTH. IN FACT...IF THE
ECMWF VERIFIES...MOST OF THE TWIN CITIES WILL NOT EVEN SEE SNOW
WITH ONLY SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA HAVING HEAVY SNOW. TRYING TO SORT
OUT THE DIFFERENCES STARTS WITH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CAMS AS WELL AS THE NAM AND GFS WOULD
HAVE A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF MINNESOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
FRONTOGENESIS. THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
IN IA AND SPREADING EAST NORTHEAST INTO WI. THE DIFFERENCE SEEMS
TIED TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE
ECMWF HAVING THE CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.

THEREFORE...WITH KEPT THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FROM THE TWIN
CITIES ON SOUTHWEST THROUGH REDWOOD FALLS AND NEW ULM FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS WOULD GIVE
THESE AREAS TWO CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION SNOW. THE FIRST WOULD BE
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND THEN AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE. TOTALS COULD REACH INTO THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE. OFFICIAL
AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS ARE MORE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE. WITH
CONFIDENCE HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST
CENTRAL WI FOR HEAVY SNOW...THE WATCH WAS CHANGED TO A WARNING.
SNOW TOTALS FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH THE HIGH END
AMOUNTS FROM ALBERT LEA TO NEAR EAU CLAIRE. IN ADDITION...THESE
AREAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 25 TO 30
MPH CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SOME TREE DAMAGE MAY
OCCUR DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE QUITE DIFFICULT IN THESE
AREAS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A NICE BULLSEYE SEEN WITH THE OMEGA NEARLY MAXED OUT IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.

THE SNOW WILL END FOR THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE FA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE START ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR 50 DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH
IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES SINCE THERE SHOULD STILL
BE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PV
ANOMALY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND LEAD TO CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP WILL BE A WINTRY
MIX...WITH SNOW FAVORED OVERNIGHT...AND RAIN DURING THE DAY AS THE
THERMAL PROFILE WARMS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

NE WINDS IN THE 15G25KT RANGE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 30
HOURS. AS FOR THE IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM...SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW FOR SRN MN...SO KAXN LIKELY TO
AVOID THIS ACTION WHILE KSTC MAY AVOID MOST OF IT. AM KEEPING
CONDS AS VFR AT BOTH KAXN-KSTC...THOUGH KSTC COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MVFR CONDS LATE MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN TMRW. THE REMAINING TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED WITH MOD-HVY SNOW AT TIMES...
DROPPING CONDS INTO IFR-OR-LOWER AT TIMES MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK
TMRW THRU MUCH OF TMRW AFTN. STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND
TIMING OF HOW QUICKLY DRY AIR WILL BE OVERCOME IS STILL A BIT
PROBLEMATIC...BUT THE OVERARCHING THOUGHT IS THAT LIGHTER -SN
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA STARTING AROUND 12Z BUT THE MAIN IMPACTFUL
-SN WILL BE AROUND 16Z THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 22Z.

KMSP...HAVE ADDED SOME DETAIL TO THE KMSP TAF BY TRYING TO BREAK
DOWN THE LIGHTER-TO-HEAVIER SNOW TIMING AFTER DAYBREAK. STILL
COULD BE EVEN EARLIER THAN WHAT IS ADVERTISED PER A FEW SHORT-TERM
MODELS WITH MVFR CONDS STILL AS EARLY AS 06Z AND VSBY INTO IFR
RANGE AS EARLY AS 15Z. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NE WINDS
WHICH MAY CAUSE BLSN ISSUES...ALONG WITH WINDS STAYING 030-050 ALL
DAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15G25KT WHICH COULD IN AND OF ITSELF
PRESENT RUNWAY USAGE CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...SN ENDING IN MRNG. AFTN VFR. WINDS N 10-20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
SAT...MVFR. CHC -RA/-SN. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR WIZ024>028.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WIZ023.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ060-062-063-065>070-073>076.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR MNZ077-078-082>085-091>093.

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...MPG/RAH
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

644 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPS/WINDS/POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
TODAY...TEMPS TUE AND THEN TEMPS/POPS/PCPN TYPE/TSTM CHANCES ON
WED. SO THERE ARE PLENTY OF ISSUES.

THE LARGE SCALE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN FEATURED A TROUGH TO OUR
EAST...A RIDGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES UP INTO THE YUKON AND A TROUGH
MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB LAST
EVENING WERE ESTIMATED AT AROUND 100 METERS JUST OFF THE WA/OR
COAST. THERE WAS A DECENT 300 MB JET PUNCHING INTO NRN AND CNTRL
CA...WITH WINDS OF 100 KNOTS OR HIGHER. THERMAL AXIS AT 850 MB WAS
WELL TO OUR WEST...BUT WILL BE MOVING EWD TODAY. SURFACE ANLYS AT
08Z SHOWED SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM MN DOWN INTO MO. DEWPOINTS LOCALLY
WERE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...AND THIS DRY AIR STRETCHED
BACK DOWN INTO KS AND WRN OK. JUST HOW FAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TODAY IS IN QUESTION. GAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WEIGHT
TO THE RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS INTO LATE AFTN.

TODAY...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...BRINGING MUCH WARMER
AIR INTO THE AREA. HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S...BUT SOME OF OUR WRN AND
SRN COUNTIES COULD POTENTIALLY REACH NEAR OR OVER 70. CURRENT
EXPECTED RH VALUES ARE MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING SO WILL
DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. THE RECENT RAIN
HAD HELPED A BIT SINCE WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME GREENUP IN SOME
SPOTS...BUT NOT MUCH.

PCPN CHANCES SEEM LOW TODAY/TONIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO
SEE IF ANYTHING MIGHT DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SWD ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUE. EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR FCST
DETAILS THROUGH WED. BY 12Z WED...SFC LOW SHOULD EITHER BE OVER
NRN KS OR NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTH
WITH THIS FEATURE (COMPARED TO THE NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF) AND IS NOT
THE PREFERRED MODEL AT THIS TIME. GFS WAS ALSO FASTER AND FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE 500 MB LOW...AND APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. DIFLUENT FLOW AND GENERAL OVERALL FORCING
FOR ASCENT SHOULD HELP PCPN BREAK OUT IN OUR NRN AND POSSIBLY
CNTRL ZONES FOR TUE NGT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TUE NGT IS IN
OUR SRN COUNTIES WITH NEGATIVE MID LEVEL EPV...BUT GENERALLY NOT
COINCIDENT WITH BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF
-TSRA TUE NGT. USING THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE MOST PART...TROWAL
STRUCTURE AND NEGATIVE 700-500 MB EPV WILL BE IN A GENERAL AXIS
FROM ERN IA INTO SCNTRL NE BY 18Z WED. USING 850 MB TEMPS AS A
GENERAL PROXY FOR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME VERY
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR FAR NW FCST AREA BY 18Z WED AND
PROBABLY REACHING DOWN CLOSE TO A LINE FROM SEWARD TO HARLAN BY
00Z THU. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...
GENERALLY SHIFTING TO JUST SERN NE AND SWRN IA BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY NW OF NORFOLK...UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
AND SHOULD RANGE TO AROUND 70 AT FALLS CITY. THIS IS ALL VERY
DEPENDENT ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN BUT IS A BEST ESTIMATE AT
THIS POINT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH 1-3 INCHES IN NERN NE
DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH DRIER
AIR STARTING TO MOVE INTO NERN NE. SNOW AMOUNTS 2-4 INCHES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
WED NGT NEAR THE SD AND KS BORDERS. WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR AS WELL
BUT AT THIS POINT TOUGH TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING
THERE WILL BE SINCE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY WET. BUT WINDS SPEEDS OF
15-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY. AGAIN...GAVE THE 00Z
ECMWF A BIT MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS. LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER
INTO MID MORNING THU IN FAR SERN NE AND FAR SWRN IA.

THU NGT AND FRI SHOULD BE DRY...AS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE SOME POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT
VERY GOOD AND CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH. 00Z ECMWF WAS WET FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA SAT INTO SAT NGT...WHILE THE GFS KEPT HIGHEST
PCPN POTENTIAL IN SERN NE AND SWRN IA JUST ON SAT. STAYED CLOSE TO
AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS POINT.

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LLVL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT AS SFC WINDS MIX
OUT...THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM AGAIN UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 25KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

341 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPS/WINDS/POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
TODAY...TEMPS TUE AND THEN TEMPS/POPS/PCPN TYPE/TSTM CHANCES ON
WED. SO THERE ARE PLENTY OF ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
ISSUE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY...THEN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP BY 11-12Z AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. SURFACE
WINDS THEN FINALLY COUPLE BY 15-16Z WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 16 TO 26 KNOTS THAT CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

315 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MID
WEEK AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW.
EXPECT THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO TREND MILDER BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 114 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST STILL IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE TO
THIS POINT WITH JUST NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON MODERATELY FAST SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LARGER
PRECIPITATION SHIELD STILL IS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. AS IS EVIDENT ON 00Z ALB/GYX RAOBS, AIRMASS
ACROSS OUR AREA IS VERY DRY FROM 700 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO
STILL NEED LOW-LEVELS TO FURTHER SATURATE BEFORE OUR EXTREME
EASTERN VT COUNTIES GET BRUSHED BY WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
SHIELD - MEANING EITHER FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW - AS PER
INCOMING 00Z NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE. FORECAST HAS LIMITED CHANCES
FOR SNOW COVERED PRETTY WELL. LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH BEST
RADIATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE SKY COVER SHOULD CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 356 PM SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE SUN ANGLE BEGINNING
TO DROP EXPECT OUR MAX TEMPS TO BE RIGHT AROUND NOW AND THEN
SLOWLY BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT WE WON`T SEE NEAR THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
AS LAST NIGHT SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE HIGH
TEENS TO LOWER 20S THIS EVENING.

WHAT WILL BECOME THE COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST IS
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EXPECT IT TO
QUICKLY DEEPEN AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC. ULTIMATELY THIS LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND
SO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE OUTSIDE
LOOKING. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS FOR SOUTHERN WINDSOR COUNTY WHERE
THERE IS CHANCE THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SYSTEM. I DONT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND PLENTY
OF GUIDANCE DOESN`T EVEN FORECAST MEASURABLE SNOW.

ONCE THE LOW DOES DEVELOP OUR WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY
DEVELOPING GUSTY PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS SO I ANTICIPATE
TOMORROW COULD BE QUITE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DRIVING IN
MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR TOMORROW EVENING. WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TOMORROW ANTICIPATE ANOTHER DAY
NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 IN
THE CONNECTICUT, SAINT LAWRENCE, AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED
THROUGH TIME. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PCPN BY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE INTL BORDER. MODELS HAVE REMAINED QUITE
CONSISTENT IN REGARD TO TIMING, TRACK AND MEAN QPF FOR THIS
FEATURE AND HAVE LARGELY KEPT WITH PRIOR THINKING SHOWING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS ARRIVING BY THE EVENING HOURS AND
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS WET BULB/PBL COOLING
PROCESSES STRENGTHEN. PRECIPITATION THEN QUICKLY TAPERS OFF BY
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL AND ALL MAINLY
LIGHT QPF EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME SHADOWING EFFECTS
EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN/SOUTHERN VT VALLEYS OWING TO FAIRLY
ROBUST 925-850 MB WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 35 TO 50 KTS. USING
LOCALLY DEVELOPED STANDARDIZED CLIMO SLR RATES OFFERS LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SLV/NRN GREENS AND
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES OR SO IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY NIGHT. LESS SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FROM BURLINGTON SOUTHWARD AND IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY
FROM WHITE RIVER SOUTH WHERE SOME AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ON TUESDAY, THEN 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT, AN
INCREASINGLY COMPLEX/DIFFICULT PATTERN THEN EVOLVES BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD THE POLAR FRONT DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION, THEN RETREATS SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES CREATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WINTRY/MIXED PCPN/RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
WE`RE STILL DEALING WITH QUITE THE DISPARITY IN THE GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PLAYERS WITH
THIS MORNING`S MODELS LARGELY HOLDING FIRM WITH THEIR PRIOR
SOLUTIONS. THE DIFFERENCES INVOLVE THE STRENGTH OF A POTENTIAL
BLOCKING POLAR HIGH OFF TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH AND THE EXTENT TO
WHICH IT EITHER 1) HOLDS FIRM, OR 2) GIVES WAY TO THE ADVANCING
LOW. QUITE IRONIC IN A COOL SEASON VIRTUALLY ABSENT OF BLOCKING IT
DECIDES TO APPEAR IN THE WANING DAYS OF MARCH. ANYHOW THE
EVOLUTION/INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SURFACE FRONT/HIGH/LOW YIELDS
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN BOTH TIMING/ARRIVAL OF PCPN AND PBL THERMAL
STRUCTURE WITH THE EURO/UKMET CAMP ON THE COLDER/SLOWER SIDE OF
THE ENVELOPE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH I`VE TRENDED SOMEWHAT
COOLER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE DURING THESE PERIODS AND CONTINUING
THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIXED PCPN AFFECTING THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE A SLOW TRANSITION TO
MAINLY RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TIME WILL TELL HOW IT ALL
EVOLVES SO STAY TUNED.

BY NEXT WEEKEND LARGE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS GUIDANCE OFFERS A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FROM MAINLY DRY TO QUITE WET. THIS APPEARS
MAINLY DUE TO RIPPLING EFFECTS FROM THE TIMING DISPARITIES
ORIGINATING IN THE THU/FRI TIME RANGE DISCUSSED ABOVE. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP WITH PRIOR TRENDS OFFERING MAINLY DRY WEATHER SATURDAY/SUNDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST WPC DAY 5/6
OUTLOOK. THINGS COULD CHANGE THOUGH. I DO HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH DAILY MEANS AVERAGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE MARCH NORMS.

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS WITH
VARYING AMTS OF MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS (9000FT AND HIGHER) TONIGHT
THRU MID-AFTN MONDAY. MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
VCNTY SLK/MSS WITH INCREASING NW WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. CARRIED
JUST VCSH AT SLK AFTER 21Z MONDAY FOR NOW. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY SE 5-10KTS AT RUT THRU DAYBREAK. WINDS
BCMG NW MID-LATE MORNING MONDAY...SUSTAINED 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS
16-20KTS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH GUSTY WINDS ON
MONDAY. SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SLK AND MPV.

00Z WED ONWARD...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1006 PM SUNDAY...AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT MASSENA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT/RICHARDS FIELD (KMSS) HAVE BEEN SPORADICALLY
TRANSMITTING OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO TELCO PROBLEMS. PERIODIC
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS TECHNICIANS WORK TO ADDRESS
THESE TELECOMMS ISSUES.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

126 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 356 PM SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. EXPECTING MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE
CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN OR SNOW
LIKELY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION LIKELY WITH
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR
MOVE INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS WITH
VARYING AMTS OF MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS (9000FT AND HIGHER) TONIGHT
THRU MID-AFTN MONDAY. MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
VCNTY SLK/MSS WITH INCREASING NW WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. CARRIED
JUST VCSH AT SLK AFTER 21Z MONDAY FOR NOW. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY SE 5-10KTS AT RUT THRU DAYBREAK. WINDS
BCMG NW MID-LATE MORNING MONDAY...SUSTAINED 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS
16-20KTS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH GUSTY WINDS ON
MONDAY. SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SLK AND MPV.

00Z WED ONWARD...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

105 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHWEST ND ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE US BELIEVE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE REACHING THE GROUND NOW...SO WE SPREAD OUR
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST TO THE HIGHWAY
2 CORRIDOR FROM WILLISTON TO MINOT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHER-
WISE...THE GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK...THOUGH WE LOWERED
THE MINIMUM HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY MORE IN SOUTHWESTERN ND USING RECENT
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR OUTPUT AND IN RESPECT TO THE OBSERVED HUMIDITY
AT BAKER...MT AS OF MIDDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

ALL WE DID WITH THIS UPDATE WAS BLEND OBSERVATIONS INTO THE HOURLY
FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 17 UTC...AND NUDGE AFTERNOON WIND GRIDS TO
THE LAMP GUIDANCE. THAT PUTS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND RIGHT ON THE EDGE
OF RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH FOR ABOUT 3
HOURS...BUT SINCE IT/S MARGINALLY INTO THE DURATION CRITERIA FOR A
TWO TO FOUR COUNTY AREA...WE WILL STILL HOLD OFF ISSUANCE OF A RED
FLAG HEADLINE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...RADAR ECHOES IN THE BOWBELLS
AREA AT 15 UTC ARE LIKELY CLOUDS AND NOT PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND...BUT CONTINUED SLOW SATURATION WILL LIKELY ENABLE VIRGA TO
EVENTUALLY REACH THE SURFACE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL ND BY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC. STILL A BIT OF SPREAD AMONGST
THE 06-10 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH ALONG
THE WARM FRONT ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...DID BLEND TO A CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD ARCH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BE NEAR BISMARCK AND MANDAN.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST AND ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM A
PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO OUR REGION.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TODAY ALLOWING MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSES TO TRACK
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS PVA...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS WITH A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHERN ND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH.
FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUD BASES RATHER HIGH AT AROUND 10K FEET AGL
SOUTH OF MY NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH MOSTLY VIRGA.

UP TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO FOR
POTENTIAL TRAVEL HAZARDS.

SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NEAR A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
COOL HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD. ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IF
ANY...ARE EXPECTED TUE-EARLY WED TIMEFRAME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES THEN MAINLY SNOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AS COLDER
AIR IS PULLED SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.

MODEL SPREADS INCREASE FOR NEXT WEEKEND LEADING TO ELEVATED
UNCERTAINTY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND THEN SAG BACK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING....WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS LIKELY IN
ITS WAKE...FIRST OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND AFTER 03 UTC AND THEN TO A
KISN-KBIS-KJMS LINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO GUSTY WEST WINDS...HIGHS
IN THE 60S F...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 PERCENT. THE TIME
DURATION FOR THIS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CJS
FIRE WEATHER...NH/CJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

1121 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE EARLIER RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA AFTER DROPPING NEARLY 1
INCH OF SNOW AROUND THE MONTEREY AREA ON THE PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOW APPROACHING THE MID STATE FROM THE
NORTH...AND HRRR MODEL INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO 06Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. MAIN OTHER CONCERN IS CLOUD
COVER...WHICH BOTH VERTICAL MOISTURE PLOTS FROM GFS/NAM AND
UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S AND UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER APPEARS SCATTERED IN NATURE...ANY
CLOUDS COULD STILL PREVENT SOME AREAS FROM REACHING THE FREEZING
MARK AS WELL AS NEGATE ANY FROST FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP INHERITED FREEZE WARNING AS IS. NOTE
THAT MUCH OF NASHVILLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND...BUT OUTLYING PARTS OF DAVIDSON COUNTY
AND ESPECIALLY THE SUBURBS ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL NEAR/BELOW
FREEZING.

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL PULLING AWAY FROM MID STATE WITH
DIMINSHED PATCHY LIGHT RAIN JUST ABOUT ALL GONE FROM RADAR SCOPE.
1030 MBAR SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AT LATE EVENING
WITH GOOD GRADIENT ACROSS TENNESSEE WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS UP A
BIT OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS. INITIALLY MVFR AT CROSSVILLE
OVERNIGHT BECOMING VFR BY 15Z IF NOT SOONER. VFR ELSEWHERE.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BEDFORD-CANNON-CHEATHAM-
CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-DE KALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-
GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-
MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-
RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-
WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1012 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

NEW NAM SIMILAR IN KEEPING LEAD BAND OF PCPN S OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWER IN DEVELOPING SNOWS
ACRS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IT ALSO HAS THE SHARP
CUT-OFF ON THE FLANK OF THE SYSTEM THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR
SOME TIME. ONE ADDITIONAL CONSEQUENCE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE
PCPN/STRONGER INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IS THAT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
LESS LIKELY.

MY CURRENT FEELING IS THAT WE MAY NEED TO BACK DOWN A BIT ON
SNOWFALL TOTALS. WL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO MAKE FINAL CALL ON THAT
AFTER SEEING THE ENTIRE 00Z DATA SET. WL ALSO LEAVE IT TO THE MID-
SHIFT TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO TAKE THE REMAINING WATCH TO A
WARNING OR AN ADVISORY.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST HEADLINES THIS EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING IS TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FCST
AREA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THEIR RESPECTIVE RUNS...AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THE FINAL HOUR OF THEIR RUNS SUGGEST PCPN ISN/T
IMMINENT AT THAT TIME EITHER. ALTHOUGH I/M NOT READY TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FCST THROUGH THAT TIME...THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE
THEY ARE ONTO SOMETHING. 00Z APX RAOB SHOWED SOMEWHAT OF A DRY
LAYER BELOW 850 MB. AND SFC DWPTS WITH THE AIRMASS NE OF THE SOO
WERE ARND 0F...SO IT/S OBVIOUSLY VERY DRY AIR THAT IS ADVECTING
TOWARD THE AREA FM THE NE. THE 21Z SREF JUST ARRIVED AND ALSO HAS
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR PCPN BEFORE 12-15Z TOMORROW.

SO IT APPEARS THE LEAD BAND OF PCPN THAT WILL STREAK EWD AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PRIMARILY AFFECT AREAS TO THE S OF
THE FCST AREA. THAT MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS...BUT
HAVEN/T SEEN ENOUGH TO START MESSING WITH THOSE YET. PERHAPS WE
ARE SEEING WHY THE ECMWF HAD THE SHARP NWD CUT-OFF ON THE HEAVIER
PCPN AMNTS.

IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO UPDATE GRIDS AND PUSH OUT UPDATED
PRODUCT SUITE...BUT SHOULD HAVE EVERYTHING SENT WITHIN AN HOUR.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

HAVE NOTICED THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS ARE SLOWER TO DEVELOP
PCPN...AND SHOW INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING S OF THE FCST AREA.
WL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK BEFORE DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT
THAT IDEA HAS MERIT AND NEEDS TO BE INCORPORATED INTO THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

MULTIPLE ISSUES WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM TO UNRAVEL...INCLUDING
PCPN TYPES WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL BAND...AND THE SHARP CUT OFF OF SNOWFALL OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

SUMMARY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GENERAL TIMING OF PCPN
ONSET/HEAVY SNOW ARRIVAL HAS COME BETTER INTO CONSENSUS BUT THE TRACK
CONTINUES TO VARY. ALL THE MODELS HAVE TAKEN A SOUTHERLY
JOG...SO THE ENVELOPE OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THOUGH IT HAS
SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH. THE EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW WILL FALL.

WED MORNING...PCPN AND TIMING ISSUES. A BAND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA AND
FGEN AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING
OF THE BAND DEVELOP PER MODEL CONSENSUS AND HELD ON TO A DRY
FORECAST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BAND OF PRECIP WILL
THEN REMAIN SITUATED OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE FIX VALLEY THROUGH
THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE
THROUGH 06Z- 18Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM AND
WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN FOR THE ONSET OF PCPN. THE QUESTION
BECOMES HOW QUICKLY WILL COLDER AIR FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE STATE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER THIS MORNING
AND THEREFORE CHANGED PCPN OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW A BIT FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS FCST...WITH ALL SNOW EXPECTED BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. A
LITTLE CONCERNED THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SLEET OR SNOW EARLIER AS
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY SHALLOW WARM AIR NEAR THE SFC AND AND A
THERMAL PROFILE HOVERING AROUND THE 0C LINE. A SLIGHT CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST COULD MEAN MORE SNOW IN THE MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN EASTWARD TO THE LAKESHORE.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN SYSTEM SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH MICHIGAN BORDER BY
00Z THURSDAY. UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUT CWA AS THE BETTER SNOW ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HELD ONTO THE WATCH A LITTLE LONGER IN NORTH CENTRAL
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL
REACH AND WHERE THE SHARP DROP OFF IN SNOW TOTALS WILL
OCCUR...PLUS SNOW WONT ARRIVE THERE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. NE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BY EARLY EVENING AS
WELL WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE PEAK ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BRUNT OF THE STORM SYSTEM BEING
FELT. MODELS ARE TRENDING WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN A BIT
THURSDAY...BUT WILL STILL STICK WITH THE MID DAY END OF THE
HEADLINES. A NORTHERN TRACKING OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND MAY PUT
MORE OF A MIX INTO THE FOX CITIES...SO HEADLINES WILL MENTION THE
POSSIBLE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS.

AFTER A QUIET DAY MOST OF FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA TOWARD THE WEEKEND. FORECAST TEMPS SUGGEST A MIX
POTENTIAL BEFORE TURNING BACK TO MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. MOST OF THE
NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AREAS MAY SEE A MINOR ACCUMULATION.
TIMING ISSUES REMAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FASTER.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK FOR A WELCOMED DRIER TREND AND
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

LOW CLDS DECK WITH LOW-END MVFR/IFR CIGS HAS SPREAD ACRS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. IT WL STICK ARND FOR A WHILE...BUT VERY DRY AIR AT
LOW-LEVELS ADVECTING IN FM THE NE MAY EVENTUALLY CHEW AWAY AT THE
CLDS. SO...WL PROBABLY SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS BY
MORNING. WL ALSO DELAY THE ONSET OF SNOWS WITH THE INCOMING STORM
SYSTEM.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR WIZ022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-074.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ013-018>021-073.
&&

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

832 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST HEADLINES THIS EVENING.

IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO UPDATE GRIDS AND PUSH OUT UPDATED
PRODUCT SUITE...BUT SHOULD HAVE EVERYTHING SENT WITHIN AN HOUR.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK FOR A WELCOMED DRIER TREND AND
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

VSBL STLT LOOP SHOWED AREA OF SC WITH MVFR CIGS OVER UPR
MICHIGAN/NRN WI SHRINKING ON IT/S NRN AND WRN EDGES...WHILE STILL
ADVANCING SWD THROUGH THE FCST AREA. EXPECT IT WL OVERSPREAD ALL
THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...AND CIGS COULD EVENTUALLY LOWER TO
IFR IN CENTRAL/NRN WI. OTHERWISE...DELAYED THE ONSET OF SIG SNOWS
A BIT FM 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR WIZ022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-074.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ013-018>021-073.
&&

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

613 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK FOR A WELCOMED DRIER TREND AND
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR WIZ022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-074.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ013-018>021-073.
&&

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER THE U.P. BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A
CU FIELD EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ALSO SPILLING OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST...AHEAD OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE DAKOTAS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT...LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES IS THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE U.P. BORDER WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH AS RATHER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES OVER THE TOP.
BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF FGEN-INDUCED PRECIP OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
INCREASE LATE IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DATA CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE U.P.
BORDER...WHILE AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A RHINELANDER TO STURGEON
BAY LINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THOUGH...AS A BROKEN MID-DECK ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...AND LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
WI...BUT MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL PERSIST FARTHER NORTH OVER FAR NORTHERN
WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THINK LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SOME DIMINISHING IS
LIKELY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURS OUT. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. AS CLOUD BASES LOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES COULD PERSIST. FARTHER
SOUTH...TIGHTENING OF THE FRONT AND INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD RECIPE FOR LOWER CLOUDS TO MAKE A SURGE
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI LATE. SHOULD SEE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS DUE TO
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID OR UPPER 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

PRIMARY CONCERNS CONTINUES WITH A SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WHICH LIKELY IMPACT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
MID WEEK. TYPICAL OF THESE SPRING/WINTER SYSTEMS...VERY DYNAMIC
AND ALSO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL RANGE FROM THE NORTHERN 12Z GFS
TRACK WHICH INCLUDES HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...TO THE
SOUTHERN ECMWF 12Z SOLUTION WHICH AFFECTS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CONSENSUS AND REST OF SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTS THE HEAVY SNOW BAND SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO WAUSAUKEE LINE.
THESE SEPARATE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT WITH THERE
PARTICULAR SOLUTIONS WITH PERHAPS THE 12Z NAM SHOWING A SHIFT
NORTH.

ONE REASON FOR THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS IS THE SOUTHWARD PUSH
OF A BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATES A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH FROM THE WARMER AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH.
SOME PROGS BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN ALONG THIS FGEN REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM FOCUSES A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACKED
OFF THIS PCPN. SO PERHAPS SATURATION ISSUES MAY PLAGUE THIS SYSTEM
INITIALLY.

THE MAIN SURFACE AND 850 LOW TRACK OVER THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE MAIN PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN THESE SYSTEM TRACKS STILL PRODUCING A DIFFERENCE RANGE OF
ABOUT 150 MILES...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH
COUPLET UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WILL BE WITH ENHANCED WITH A
GRADUALLY DESCENDING SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN INTO THURSDAY...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE ANTICIPATED RANGE OF 6-11.
THE MORE NORTHERN GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX VARIETY AT
THE ONSET FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH WOULD HOLD DOWN
SNOW AMOUNTS. DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL USE
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW AND TURNING TO ALL SNOW.

IN ADDITION TO DETERMINING THE HEAVY SNOW AXIS...OTHER ISSUES
WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AMOUNTS INCLUDE ADDING THUNDER
AND SLEET IF THIS BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKS MORE
NORTH. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ADVECT DRIER AIR FORM NORTH TO HOLD
DOWN PCPN AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO COVER THE SYSTEM SNOW
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ITS POSSIBLE AN
ADVISORY OR SPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INITIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LATE WEEK...TIMING ISSUES WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. AS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE FRONT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
WI LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH UP
TO AN INCH RIGHT ALONG THE U.P. BORDER. ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING. BUT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH AND
NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP...CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO MVFR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ038>040-045-048>050.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ018>020-030-031-035>037.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ021-022-073-074.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1120 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

FORECAST FOCUS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ON THE CYCLONE CROSSING
THE REGION MID-WEEK...AND IT/S POTENTIAL TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. THOUGH EXHIBITING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM...AND CANADIAN
MODELS GENERATED A SYSTEM THAT WOULD BRING HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THESE MODELS...
SOME MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE
PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...AND HAD A
SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. IT/S TRACK COULD
STILL RESULT IN WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS OVER ABOUT THE SE 1/4 TO 1/3
OF THE FCST AREA...BUT WITH LOWER TOTALS AND A MUCH SHARPER
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION NW OF THE FOX VALLEY.

A FEW THOUGHTS ON THIS SYSTEM FROM ROUGHLY 3 DAYS OUT. BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF HAD GOOD SUPPORT FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEANS. LOOKED TO SEE IF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWED EVEN A SMALL
CLUSTERING OF MEMBERS WITH A MORE SLY TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF...AND FOUND NO EVIDENCE OF THAT. SO THERE DOESN/T SEEM TO
BE MUCH HELP FROM THE ENSEMBLE DATA. ONE THING THAT CAUGHT MY EYE
WAS THAT THE 12Z RUN OF THE UKMET TRACKED THE CYCLONE MUCH
FARTHER SE...BASICALLY EWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT WOULD
INDICATE SOME SUPPORT FOR A TRACK MORE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE
ECWMF...THOUGH UNLIKE THE ECMWF...THE UKMET WAS VERY FAST MOVG THE
SYSTEM EAST. IT/S ALSO HARD TO GO AGAINST THE ECMWF AFTER IT
CLEARLY OUT PERFORMED THE REST OF THE MODELS WITH LAST WEEKS
SYSTEM.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY COME INTO BETTER FOCUS
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT THERE IS REASON
TO BE AT LEAST A LITTLE SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALLS
GENERATED BY THE GFS. CURRENT HWO HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS TO AT LEAST PORTIONS
OF THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THAT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE SITUATION UNTIL BETTER
CONFIDENCE IS GAINED IN THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND AND
THE SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE BAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO AND APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND IS GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WI THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE CU FIELD HAS NOT BEEN AS
ROBUST FARTHER SOUTH...AND THINK SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND SKY TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SHORT-TERM.

TONIGHT...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...THE HIGHER RES MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A SMALL CHANCE REMAINS THAT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO FAR N-C WISCONSIN AND THE NORTHERN TIP
OF THE DOOR. ELSEWHERE...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO BE PRESENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...CLOUDS THAT BUILD THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE NORTH...EVEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SOME BREAKS WILL
INEVITABLY OCCUR THOUGH. EXCEPT FOR THE DOOR PENINSULA...PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ONCE THE CU
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SINCE WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS AROUND...LOW
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH.

MONDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
MORNING. THOUGH DIURNAL BUILD UP OF CU SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS TODAY...WILL HAVE AMPLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR A PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. HIGHS AROUND
40 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

HIGHLIGHT OF THIS PERIOD TOWARD MID WEEK AS PROGS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO PASS OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION INCLUDING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

BUT FIRST...FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT LIFTING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED WITH A UPPER 100 KT
JETLET LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA. FORECAST TEMPS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW FOR FAR
NORTHEAST THEN TRENDING TO LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION APPEARS STILL ON TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS
SEPARATING THE COLD AIR MASS TO THE NORTH WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH
THE REGION OF HEAVY SNOW STARTING MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL THE
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.

WHILE CONFIDENCE OF A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS INCREASING FOR THE
REGION DUE TO A COLDER TREND...CONFIDENCE OF THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVY SNOW BAND REMAINS LOW. OVERVIEW OF THE LATEST PROGS...THE
GFS PAINTS THE HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS WELL SOUTH. THE CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BUT
INCLUDES HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

ALL PROGS DEVELOP A VERY INTENSE FGEN BAND OF SNOW WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SURFACE AND H850 LOW TRACK OVER
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE BLUSTERY
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINTER
RETURNS TO THE AREA.

QUIET WEATHER BUT COOL REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER.

MEDIUM RANGE PROGS SUGGESTS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT DROPS OVER
THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CLD DECK TO
DEVELOP AND DROP SWD INTO NRN WI TNGT. NOT MUCH SIGN OF THAT
HAPPENING YET...THOUGH COLDER AIR STILL ARRIVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. WL STILL KEEP THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE FCST...BUT DELAY
IT SOME FM 00Z TAF. OTHERWISE...MID-CLDS HAVE INCREASED ACRS THE
REGION...THOUGH THAT IS OF LIMITED CONCERN FOR THE TAFS. GENERALLY
GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

119 AM MDT WED MAR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT WED MAR 23 2016

HAVE STARTED THE WINTER STORM WARNING EARLIER THAN FORECAST FOR
ZONE 35 WITH ALREADY HEAVY SNOW FALLING ACROSS BOULDER AND LARIMER
COUNTIES ABOVE 8000 FEET. ALREADY SEEING 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES REPORTED AT ALLENSPARK. COULD EASILY SEE THE 1-2 INCH PER
HOUR RATES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY 3 INCHES IN
ONE HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW. HAVE ALREADY INCREASED SNOWFALL
TO 8-15 INCHES FOR ZONE 35 AND THAT MAYBE STILL TOO LOW. WILL ALSO
NEED TO PROBABLY INCREASE SNOWFALL IN ZONE 36 AS WELL AND POSSIBLY
INCLUDE THEM IN A WARNING. MORE TO COME...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

AND AWAY WE GO. FIRST OFF...THE RED FLAG WARNING ON THE PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ040>046-
048>051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ035.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ031-
033-034.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ038-039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ036.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ047.

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1230 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
1015 PM CDT

.SHORT TERM...
221 PM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
234 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

IZZI

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

CHALLENGING FORECAST ON TAP WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON
WINDS...CIGS...AND PRECIP TIMING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED
OVER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY SITTING BETWEEN MDW
AND GYY AT 05Z. BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE TERMINALS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT EITHER
OVERNIGHT OR AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
VERY QUITE A WIDE RANGE IN VARIANCE ON WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL
START WITH SOME SUGGESTING IT SHOULD ALREADY BE RAINING WHILE
OTHERS HOLD OFF WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN CURRENT
CONDITIONS ON RADAR WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH-BASED ECHOES ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...LEANING TOWARDS SOME OF
THE LATER TIMING FOR PRECIP ARRIVAL.

LOW CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...AND ARE ALREADY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN INTO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
ONCE AGAIN MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THOUGH WITH SOME MODELS
HONING IN ON THE 12-15Z TIMEFRAME WHILE THE CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL ERR SLOWER/LATER WHICH SEEMS TO BE
THE THEME SO FAR FOR THIS EVENT...BUT WILL PROBABLY KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON PWK OB OVERNIGHT.

FINALLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING
OVER THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO THE SOUTH. WE SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW...HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW
TOMORROW...THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO INCH BACK NORTHWARD. WITH
REINFORCING COLD AIR OFF THE LAKE THAT WILL SLOW ANY NORTHWARD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...HAVE AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
STAYING NORTHEASTERLY FOR ORD...WITH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY
FOR MDW AND ESPECIALLY GYY WHICH SEVERAL MODELS DO SHOW WILL TURN
SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERLY FOR A WHILE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING.

BMD

.MARINE...
234 PM CDT

IZZI

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP TO WILMETTE HARBORS UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.

GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1140 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016

Overall, the forecast grids were in good shape, and other than the
removal of precip, only minor adjustments were done to
temp/dewpoint/wind grids. Updated info is already available.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016

A cold front draped across northern Illinois has drifted south to
a line from the Quad Cities to Chicago. It is expected to stall
out in that general area through early afternoon tomorrow, when it
will begin a northward push in response to low pressure
approaching IL from the west. Precipitation chances in our
forecast area over the next 24 hours look to be limited by a dry
airmass initially, then a strong inversion centered at 700 mb
tomorrow will limit updraft potential during the afternoon and
evening. Light rain chances through 12z tonight should remain
north of our terminal sites, but borderline MVFR clouds will
develop as far south as the I-74 corridor tomorrow morning and
linger through the day. Have included prevailing MVFR clouds at
PIA and BMI after 14z, with MVFR ceilings developing across the
southern terminals after 20z-21z. The best instability is forecast
after the end of this TAF period, as the cold front pushes across
IL. Therefore have not included thunder in this TAF issuance.
Thunder chances could begin to increase as early as 03z/10pm,
according to instability params. Omega fields point toward
potential for prevailing rain across the northern terminals after
24/03z. Only included VCSH for SPI and DEC tomorrow evening for
now.

Winds will be southerly throughout this TAF period, with a few
gusts to 20-25kt still occurring the rest of tonight. Gusts to
25-30kt will return at all TAF sites tomorrow, with gusts
continuing into early evening.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Shimon

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

345 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL APPROACH THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...TO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016

RESOLVING NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ALONG WITH TIMING/MAGNITUDE
OF PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
FOR TODAY.

FOR TODAY...MID/UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH
PRIMARY UPPER FORCING BEGINNING TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALES WILL CONTINUE TO
RACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BUT WILL BE WEAK IN NATURE
WITH BROAD CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW PERSISTING. A NOTABLE UPSWING
IN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING HOWEVER
AS A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. AFOREMENTIONED
CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ROCKIES PV
ANOMALY WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
FORCING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. AS FAR SOUTH AS LOCAL AREA...A
COUPLE OF COMPLICATING FACTORS TO CONSIDER REGARDING TIMING/MAGNITUDE
OF PRECIP CHANCES. FORECAST BUFFER SOUNDINGS/SHORT TERM MODEL
PROGS DEPICT LOCAL AREA UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WHICH MAY LIMIT DEPTH OF BETTER RH. BULK OF GUIDANCE ALSO
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY OVERDOING NEAR SFC MOISTURE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE HRRR MAY BE A BIT TOO DRY WITH NEAR
SFC/LOW LEVELS...HAVE GENERALLY BOUGHT IN ON LATEST HRRR TRENDS
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING GIVEN FACTORS ABOVE. DID
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING
EVEN ACROSS THE NORTH. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...MORE DIVORCED FROM STRONGER
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING.

THICKER LOW CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO BE SOMEWHAT MORE DELAYED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...SO DID TREND TEMPS UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW TO MEDIUM SIDE IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER GIVEN LOW LEVEL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW CLOUD/RAIN SHOWER TIMING. LAKESHORE AREAS MAY
REMAIN ANCHORED AROUND 50 OR IN THE LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016

CRUX OF OUR RAIN EVENT WILL UNFOLD LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH/PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA. GOOD CVA/HEIGHT FALLS AND STEADY WARM/MOIST AIR
ADVECTION (PUSHING 295K MIXING RATIOS TO AROUND 8 G/KG) WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THAT TIME. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 50KT LLJ OVER OUR CWA BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND MAGNITUDE OF RESULTANT THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN
THIS LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT BUT MARGINAL STATIC
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND PREVENT ANY SEVERE CONCERNS.
REDUCED STABILITY COULD HOWEVER LEAD TO SOME DECENT QPF TOTALS GIVEN
DEEP LAYER OF STRONG OMEGA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW VALUES OVER AN
INCH). AROUND 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALES...PARTICULARLY IN OUR NORTH.
RECENT DRY SPELL HAS ALLOWED AREA RIVERS TO COME DOWN QUITE A BIT
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS QPF WITH LITTLE TO NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST WITH THIS EVENT IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET
SNOW TO MIX IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THIS ALSO CORRELATES TO LOSS OF BETTER FORCING
AND MOISTURE AS SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP AT ALL BY THE TIME SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH BETTER
DEFORMATION LOCKED TO OUR NORTH AND QUICKLY LIFTING. EXPECT JUST A
FEW SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST THAT WILL NOT ACCUMULATE GIVEN WARM/WET
GROUND CONDITIONS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END BY FRIDAY MORNING
AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND AVA/SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY BUILD.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL LOOKING DRY AND RELATIVELY PLEASANT.
FRIDAY STARTS OFF COOL BUT SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND LATE MARCH SUN TAKES ITS TOLL.
MUCH WARMER ON SATURDAY BUT WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AS NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME LARGE INCONSISTENCIES WITH
HOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE BUT SHOULD BE JUST ANOTHER RAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A TIGHTENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WEAK
SHORT WAVES WILL RACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH TODAY BUT SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO LINGERING BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE. THIS FLOW PATTERN AND CONTINUED
EASTWARD MIGRATION OF UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHARPENING OF
LOW/MID LEVEL FRONT TODAY. MAIN QUESTION IN TERMS OF TIMING
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS/RAIN WILL BE POTENTIAL OF RELATIVELY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER PERSISTING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
MAINTAINED GENERAL IDEA OF PREVIOUS TAFS...WITH JUST SLIGHTLY MORE
DELAYED ONSET OF FUEL ALTERNATE CRITERIA TOWARD MIDDAY/AFTERNOON
AT KSBN. BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL AFFECT
KSBN...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AT KFWA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT/LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION INCREASE. DID TREND KSBN TO IFR
LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL HOLD WITH TREND TO LOWER END MVFR AT
KFWA TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT KFWA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS IS
SOMEWHAT LOWER AT KSBN DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STALLING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR LMZ043-046.

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI

VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

333 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

07Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough moving through the
central Rockies with the low beginning to close off. At the surface,
Low pressure continues to deepen across western KS and eastern CO.
The resulting pressure gradient and strong southerly winds have
finally transported some higher dewpoints into eastern KS.

With a very dynamic system progged to move across the area today,
there are several concerns beginning with the winds. Both the GFS
and NAM show a strong pressure gradient over the area through
tonight. About the only relief from the strong winds will be when
the surface low passes across northern KS and allow the winds to
diminish briefly. Will continue the wind advisory for today across
east central and parts of northeast KS for the strong winds ahead of
the surface low. Will also extended the advisory through the night
as well as expand it to include all of the counties as wind gusts
around 45 MPH are expected behind the surface low. The strong winds
will also create extreme fire danger today. See the fire weather
discussion for further details.

Thunderstorms chances look somewhat slim today although not
impossible. The strong elevated mixed layer (EML) is likely to
weaken as the upper low approaches and mid level temps cool. The
strongest PVA looks to impact the area during the late morning and
early afternoon. However forecast soundings show the EML capping the
surface boundary until mid afternoon or around 21Z. Additionally
there is the question of available moisture and resulting
instability. As the system approaches from the west, low level winds
should veer to the southwest pushing the deeper moisture to the east
into MO. So while things don`t appear to line up as well as they
could, there may be a narrow window when the dryline is pushing east
that the cap weakens enough for convection to develop along it.
Models suggest there could be around 1000 J/kg of CAPE along the
dryline through the late afternoon and with strong deep layer shear,
there could be an organized storm before they quickly move east of
the area. The convective allowing high resolution models appear to
be giving mixed signals for thunderstorm development. The NMM thinks
storm will form along the dryline while the ARW keep the dryline
mainly free of convection except for along and north of the
warm front dryline intersection. The HRRR is just now starting to
get far enough into the future but does not have any storm
development through 21Z. The dryline is expected to push east of the
forecast area around 7PM which would bring an end to the
thunderstorm potential.

Temps today are expected to warm into the mid 70s to near 80 for
most areas. Will need to watch parts of central KS for possibly
warmer temps with the dry slot working in with good insolation and
deep mixing. Cold air advection is forecast to increase early this
evening. Therefore lows in the lower and mid 30s appear to be on
track.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

The mid range forecast for Thursday afternoon thru Saturday morning
will be characterized mainly by decreasing wind fields as the
pressure gradient with the departing low pressure system lifts
northeast of the region into the Upper MS Valley and Western Great
Lakes region. Meanwhile, isentropic downglide will work in behind
the system as subsidence builds into northeastern KS vicinity.
Friday return flow sets up over the Central Plains as an expansive
area of high pressure slides off to the east of the area. The
gradient over northeast KS will tighten again but not as strong as
the current system has been for the past couple days. This is all
in response to what looks to be a set-up where the PFJ exhibits split
flow and the main northern stream begins to amplify at minor
shortwave trough over the Northern Plains and the southern branch
trough digs into the Inter-mountain West. This will likely cause
winds to mix over the region to around 800mb and with a very dry
atmosphere once again, probably will be looking at elevated fire
danger. No headlines yet as there is some indication the winds
may not be as strong, but nonetheless this will still create a
situation where fire danger is present.

Into the weekend and the extended time frame, the previously
mentioned shortwave with the northern stream of the PFJ will send a
weak boundary into the region which will essentially stall and act
as a stationary boundary for much of the day Saturday bringing small
chances of rainshowers. However, with weaker lift and still a
fairly dry atmosphere in the lowest levels, any significant
precipitation is probably going to hold off until better forcing can
be produced with the southern stream of energy. GFS and EC
solutions do differ greatly with the deepening of the upper trough
as it pulls out of the Southern Rockies. While the EC appears to
deepen the upper wave more and associated surface low, it doesn`t
really get organized until it lifts further east of the area.
Meanwhile, the GFS matures the upper low sooner but not as deep.
Therefore, if the solution of the EC verifies, it is possible to see
heavier precip amounts over at least southern portions of the area
mainly south of I-70. It doesn`t appear to be a set up for any
great amount of thunderstorm activity for northeast KS as the better
moisture resides much further south and east of the region as well
as instability not being great. Also, cold air being wrapped around
this system appears to be fairly weak and short lived with the main
branch of the PFJ again off to the north of the region, so the
likelihood of any significant snow with not great either with
soundings suggesting the lowest 5kft being too warm for much snow
and a lower likelihood of wetbulb cooling to take place. Perhaps the
best area for this to occur is over northern portions of the area
north of I-70. Monday and Tuesday are again dry with subsidence
over the region.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

Main concern will continue to the be the wind through the period
as tight pressure gradient will continue ahead of approaching
surface low and then behind it. South to southwest winds of 18kts
to 26kts with gusts to 35kts possible, then decreasing after 23Z
as surface low moves through the area, then increase from the west
and northwest in the 01Z-06Z period. VFR expected for much of the
period with mvfr cigs moving into MHK around 03Z and should hold
off at TOP and FOE until after 06Z. Precipitation confidence to
low to include in tafs at this time.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

Extreme fire danger is likely this afternoon as a dryline moves from
west to east across the area and much dryer air mixes to the surface
during the warmest part of the day. Because of this think min RH
values could drop to between 10 and 15 percent for parts of the
area. Combined with strong winds gusting between 35 and 45 MPH and
the weather looks to be very unfavorable for any outdoor burning.
Will keep the red flag warning going and expand it west to include
all but Republic county. Winds across Republic county should not be
as strong as they will be across the rest of the area. South winds
ahead of the dryline will shift to the northwest during the
evening.

Friday there will likely be a risk of elevated fire danger as
southerly return flow once again sets up over the region with
mixing of drier dewpoints from around the 800mb level. This could
bring RH values to at least the low 20s and possibly lower. Winds
are currently borderline for actual headline conditions, so lower
confidence in this portion of the forecast for now.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ009>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ022>024-026-035>040-
054>056-058-059.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
KSZ008>012-020-021-034.

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...53
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

229 AM MDT WED MAR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

LATEST 00Z NAM AND MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL RUN SHOW PRECIPITATION
STARTING A LITTLE SLOWER THEN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS THE STORM
SYSTEM COMES OUT A BIT LATER.

FAVORED THE HRRR OVER THE NAM REGARDING WRAPAROUND
PRECIPITATION...THE NAM HOLDS IT FOR A CONSIDERABLE LENGTH OF TIME
OVER PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHILE THE HRRR IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MATCHES THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

RED FLAG WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CHEYENNE
COUNTY COLORADO THIS HOUR AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST WELL OVER 25
MPH AND RH VALUES REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPIRATION AT 00Z.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE VERY LITTLE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT WED MAR 23 2016

THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT DURING THIS
PERIOD...MAINLY AT THE BEGINNING AND TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IN REGARDS TO THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE NOW
TAKING THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. THE CRH INIT CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AND LOWER POPS FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS MAKES
SENSE WITH THE MODEL OUTPUT AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SO WILL MAKE NO CHANGES.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS NOW CUTTING OFF A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIKE THE ECMWF WAS DOING YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN ARE MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE. THAT LOOKS IN LINE WITH
WPC FORECASTS. CONSEQUENTLY THE INIT ENDS THE POPS FASTER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HAS NOTHING FOR SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE INIT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT IN DIGGING/DEVELOPING A
LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DO NOT START OUT TOO BAD AND
THEN BECOME MUCH MORE DIFFERENT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF
CUTS OFF THE SYSTEM AND DOES NOT MOVE IT VERY MUCH. CONSIDERING
THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WE ARE IN PLUS THE MODELS TENDING TO BE TOO
FAR NORTH AND PROGRESSIVE IN THIS PATTERN...WOULD THINK THE ECMWF
IS GOING TO BE CLOSER TO REALITY. ALSO EVEN THE GEFS MEAN AND ITS
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS SUPPORT THE ECMWF MORE THAN THEY DO THE GFS.

WPC FORECASTS FOR THIS PERIOD REFLECT THE SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF
THINKING. THE INIT HAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
THIS LOOKS FINE. WHERE THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT STARTS
AFFECTING THE CRH INIT IS JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD WITH POPS BEING
INTRODUCED. HOPEFULLY MODELS GET SOME CONSISTENCY BUT AT THIS
TIME...A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY.

OVERALL WILL MAKE LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO WHAT THE CRH INIT GAVE ME.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016

A POTENT AND FAIRLY QUICK MOVING WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRATUS CREATING IFR CIGS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
BOTH TERMINALS WITH VIS <1/2 MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50KTS OR SO FROM 20Z-03Z. FOR THE LATE EVENING
HOURS SNOW WILL VERY SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO GOODLAND.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
/1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR KSZ001-002-013.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR KSZ003-014.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
/1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR KSZ004-015-016-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
COZ092.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR COZ090-091.

NE...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
/1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR NEZ079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR NEZ081.

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1030 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016