Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/22/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1036 PM PDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
ON SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE SECOND PART OF THIS
INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO
MOST OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY...WITH
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...EVENING SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
MOVING TO THE ENE. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS LIFTED THE
MARINE LAYER...RESULTING IN PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CLIP NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT WIDESPREAD
MEASURABLE RAIN PROBABLY WON`T DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS RAIN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON THE
SONOMA COUNTY COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN IS
THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTH BAY BY
MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN FRANCISCO. THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE ENE AND
NOT DIG SOUTH AS IT MOVES INLAND. THUS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED
FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH BAY TOMORROW...WITH RAIN TOTALS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH IN SAN
FRANCISCO. ONLY SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. BUT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE AND RENEWED RAINFALL IS FORECAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST.
THIS SECOND ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN
END OF OUR CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HALF INCH MAY FALL IN THE
NORTH BAY MONDAY...WITH A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED FROM SAN
FRANCISCO SOUTH.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS
TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT SATURDAY...ITS BEEN A DIFFICULT
FORECAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS
THE COAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR
SKIES PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS. THE NAM40 FORECAST MODEL
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONT ARRIVING TO THE COAST BETWEEN 1800Z
AND 2100Z SUNDAY. THIS RATHER WEAK FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO
THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE FROM SAN JOSE NORTHWARD. MVFR CIGS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST 0900Z WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS BKN025 PASSING OVER THE
TERMINALS AND APPROACH. CIGS BKN015-025 ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AFTER 0900Z. MVFR CIGS BKN025 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH
WET RUNWAYS.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 0600 AND 0800Z. SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND
1900Z ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:26 PM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS
FRONT IS WEAK BUT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN ON
SUNDAY. RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONTS PARENT
STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE WATERS. WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 5 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 5 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
901 PM PDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
ON SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE SECOND PART OF THIS
INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO
MOST OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY...WITH
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...EVENING SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
MOVING TO THE ENE. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS LIFTED THE
MARINE LAYER...RESULTING IN PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CLIP NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT WIDESPREAD
MEASURABLE RAIN PROBABLY WON`T DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS RAIN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON THE
SONOMA COUNTY COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN IS
THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTH BAY BY
MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN FRANCISCO. THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE ENE AND
NOT DIG SOUTH AS IT MOVES INLAND. THUS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED
FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH BAY TOMORROW...WITH RAIN TOTALS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH IN SAN
FRANCISCO. ONLY SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. BUT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE AND RENEWED RAINFALL IS FORECAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST.
THIS SECOND ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN
END OF OUR CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HALF INCH MAY FALL IN THE
NORTH BAY MONDAY...WITH A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED FROM SAN
FRANCISCO SOUTH.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS
TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 6:02 PM PDT SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE
WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A COLD FRONT POSITIONED
APPROXIMATELY 350 MILES OFFSHORE. THE NAM40 FORECAST MODEL SHOWS
THIS FRONT ARRIVING TO THE COAST BETWEEN 1800Z AND 2100Z SUNDAY.
THIS FRONT IS RATHER WEAK FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT OF
RAIN WILL BE FROM SAN JOSE NORTHWARD. MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS RAIN.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST 0900Z WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS BKN025 PASSING OVER THE
TERMINALS AND APPROACH. CIGS BKN015-025 ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AFTER 0900Z. MVFR CIGS BKN025 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH
WET RUNWAYS.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 0200Z WITH PERIODS OF CIGS OVC009-012 PASSING
OVER THE TERMINALS. BY 0200Z CIGS BKN015-025 ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 1900Z ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:26 PM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS
FRONT IS WEAK BUT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN ON
SUNDAY. RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONTS PARENT
STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE WATERS. WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 5 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 5 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
555 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TO NEAR BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY REACHING EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY PULLING A
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
SATURDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD FASTER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS DELAWARE AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY. WE ARE GETTING
REPORTS OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN SOME SLEET EARLIER. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW JERSEY ESPECIALLY TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW TO START THEN
MORE OF A MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN. THE RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR AWHILE LONGER BEFORE A TRANSITION TO MORE
SNOW AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING BETTER. A NEW SNOW MAP HAS ALSO
BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB. TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS AND WINDS WERE
ALSO TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THEN SOME BLENDING
IN OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS DONE.
THE HRRR RAMPS THINGS UP BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z AND 06Z WITH THE GREATEST
AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHCS ARE THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO. THERE LOOKS TO BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE WEST, BUT IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THAT CUTOFF WILL BE. WE DO NOTE THAT THE DEW POINTS ARE MUCH
MUCH LOWER ATTM THE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE GOES. AS AN EXAMPLE
AT 21Z, THE DEW POINT AT MOUNT POCONO WAS 3F WHILE AT GEORGETOWN
IT WAS 38F.
WITH NATURAL DIURNAL COOLING, A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS CHANGE WILL BE ENHANCED WHERE PRECIP COMES
DOWN HEAVIEST, WHICH HAS THE BEST CHC OF OCCURRING ALONG THE
COAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS IS, WITH
THESE AREAS HAVING THE GREATEST CHC OF OBTAINING THE HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS. THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON NON-PAVED
SURFACES, HOWEVER SOME BANDING LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES FOR A TIME AND
THIS IS WHEN AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS CAN OCCUR. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING SNOW AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING ERLY IN THE PD, BUT WILL
END BY LATE MRNG WITH IMPROVING CONDS AND CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SUN BY
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY NW WIND, WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 20 TO
25 MPH INLAND AND HIGHER CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH INCOMING RIDGING AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND IN THE MID LEVELS. THE HIGHER PRESSURE IS TRANSIENT AND
WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MODELS
VARY, BUT A FEW SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT DOWN AS FAR SOUTH AS
EASTERN PA AND NJ. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTHWARD,
PUTTING US IN THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO A COLD FROPA. THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS UNCERTAIN. THE WINDOW IS BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER OF
THE WEEKEND DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES...CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL ON
TUESDAY. AVERAGES SHOULD WARM TO ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR FRIDAY
BECAUSE THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT IS IN QUESTION. IF IT`S FASTER,
TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME CLIMBING ONCE AGAIN TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION...THE REGION WILL BE PRECIP FREE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WHAT TIME OF
DAY THE FRONT PASSES WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON ANY POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, AT TIMES, TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
GUSTS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
GUSTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COULD RAMP UP AGAIN ON
SUNDAY IF THE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH WORKS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC.
IMPACTS...NO WIDESPREAD IMPACTS THIS COMING WEEK ARE EXPECTED. WITH
THE BACK DOOR FRONT POTENTIALLY DIPPING INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
WEEK, WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE POOL AT THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF IT. THIS SITUATION MIGHT YIELD SOME MORNING SPRING FOG THAT
COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES DURING THE A.M. RUSH. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW
WEAK INSTABILITY ATTM, WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR KRDG AND KABE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE IN FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT. IF
THAT OCCURS, BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. NE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN WILL BECOME NW ON MON AND INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KT.
FOR KTTN, KPNE, KPHL AND KILG...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TO IFR AS
PRECIP, NOW MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX CHANGES OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW. EXPECT THE CHANGE OVER TO OCCUR BEFORE 06Z. WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE ON MON GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 25 KT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE 18Z. VFR WILL
THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR KMIV AND KACY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z BEFORE SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION NOW
IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX NOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SNOW NEAR 06Z. WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY 12Z AND
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND MONDAY NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON ON BOTH DAYS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT IS LOW ATTM.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED. WINDS
EXPECTED TO GO NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT. SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.MARINE...
530 PM UPDATE...SEAS WERE INCREASED BY ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
THE GLW FOR THE SRN WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE SCA FOR THE
NRN WATERS AND LWR DEL BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU MON.
ADDITIONALLY UPR DEL BAY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SCA AS CONDS HAVE
BEEN CLOSE TO SCA AT BRANDYWINE AND WITH NWLY FLOW EXPECTED ON
MON, WIND COULD BECOME EVEN HIGHER ON THE NRN PORTION OF THE DEL
BAY.
OUTLOOK...
CONTINUING TO LOOK LIKE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD...
MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SCA VERY LIKELY. GALES
A POSSIBILITY. GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.
TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH AND BACKING TO SOUTHWEST
BY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW. POSSIBLE SCA THOUGH THE 25 KT GUSTS
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE VERY NEARSHORE WATERS SINCE IT WILL BE MILD
AIR OVERRIDING COOLER MID-UPPER 40S SSTS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO OUR WATERS NOR THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF THE BACK DOOR DROPS INTO
THE REGION THE WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY. REGARDLESS OF TIMING, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN BREEZY WITH 2 SEPARATE FRONTS IN THE VICINITY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING AND THE HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE TREND OF A SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE
LOW, BOTH GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS
FALLING SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS BY A HALF A FOOT OR MORE.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE FURTHER WEST TRACK, IS THAT WATER LEVELS
WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE WATER LEVELS
OF THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE (PREVIOUSLY THE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING
WAS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS).
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY WITH THE ANOMALIES FOR THIS
EVENINGS HIGH TIDE, BUT STILL THINK THE THREAT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE HWO.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALL DAILY RECORDS
MAR 20
ACY 5.0 1914
THE FOLLOWING WAS GENERATED BY SARAH JOHNSON ET AL, ALL BELOW
PREDICATED ON OFFICIAL MEASURABLE SNOW.
IF PHILADELPHIA MEASURES TONIGHT IT WILL BE THE 7TH TIME SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN THAT THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW HAS OCCURRED AFTER
THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR. THE OTHER YEARS WERE 1892,
1921, 1928, 1967 1990 AND 2000.
ALL OF THESE YEARS HAD THEIR EARLIER THAN NORMAL FIRST 80 DEGREE
DAY.
ABE: 6 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1963, 1967, 1978, 1986, 1990, 2014)
ACY: 2 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1990)
ILG: 4 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1985, 1990, 2000)
MARCH THROUGH 19 DAYS IS AVERAGING ABOUT 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL... WARMEST NORTH.
AS OF NOW WE ARE TRACKING 4TH WARMEST MARCH IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE
FOR PHILADELPHIA DATING BACK TO 1874. WE`VE RUN CALCULATIONS BASED
ON TODAY 330 AM FORECAST THROUGH THE 26TH, THE FTPRHA GFS 2M
MAX/MIN FROM D8-11 AND THEN NORMAL LOW HI FOR THE 31ST AND PROJECTING
PHILADELPHIA EASILY A PROBABLE TOP 10 WARMEST. THE AVG MAY SLIP A
BIT FROM THE CURRENT 50.1 DEGREES (PLUS 8.9 DEGREES SO FAR) BUT WE
ARE PROJECTING TO BE ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN
OF 43.5. IF ITS 50 DEGREES... THIS WOULD BE THE 4TH WARMEST MARCH
BEHIND
52.5 1921
52.2 2012
51.2 1945
AND JUST AHEAD OF 49.8 IN 1946.
ABE THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED #4 WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO
1922
ACY THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 6TH WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO
1874
ILG THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 10TH, RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1895.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
020-022-026-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE, OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES, WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY ON MONDAY. A
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TO NEAR
BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. IT MAY TRACK AS FAR SOUTH AS
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC
ON FRIDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE,
TRACKING UP FROM THE SOUTH, MAY AFFECT THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
PRECIP ASSOCD WITH THE CSTL LOW HAS MOVED INTO DE AND EXTREME SRN NJ
ATTM. IT IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN, DUE TO TEMPS IN THE 40S.
DEWPTS ARE GRADUALLY COMING UP AS WELL. SOME SLEET MIXED IN CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE,
MAINLY IN SRN AND ERN AREAS.
ONCE AGAIN, THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS AND IT
SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BIGGEST RAMP UP WILL BE BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z WITH
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE THRU ABOUT 06Z. GUID STILL SUGGEST THE BEST
CHCS ARE THE FURTHER S AND E YOU GO. THE 12Z GUID MADE A SLIGHT EWD
SHIFT AND THERE LOOKS TO BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NW, BUT IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THAT CUTOFF WILL BE.
THE NEXT BIG QUESTION, AND THE MOST IMPORTANT ONE, IS WHAT FORM THE
PRECIP WILL TAKE. RIGHT NOW ITS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FCST. HOWEVER, DEW
PTS ARE QUITE LOW, IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MANY AREAS, SO THERE IS
DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND WITH COOLING OF THE COLUMN, TEMPS WILL
SETTLE IN THE 30S. WITH NATURAL DIURNAL COOLING, A TRANSITION TO
SNOW SHOULD OCCUR DURG THE EVE HOURS,. THIS CHANGE WILL BE ENHANCED
WHERE PRECIP COMES DOWN HEAVIEST, WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
OCCURRING ALG THE CST.
QPF AMTS ARE ALSO A BIT IN QUESTION, WITH THE NAM AND GFS HIGHER
THAN THE ECMWF, BUT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS LOWER THAN THEIR OVERNIGHT
RUNS. FOR NOW, WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN AND KEEP THE
WINTER WX ADVY. IT MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES,
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIP CHANGES OVER AND HOW HEAVY IT MAY
FALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING ERLY IN THE PD, BUT WILL
END BY LATE MRNG WITH IMPROVING CONDS AND CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SUN BY
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY NW WIND, WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 20 TO
25 MPH INLAND AND HIGHER CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH INCOMING RIDGING AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND IN THE MID LEVELS. THE HIGHER PRESSURE IS TRANSIENT AND
WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MODELS
VARY, BUT A FEW SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT DOWN AS FAR SOUTH AS
EASTERN PA AND NJ. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTHWARD,
PUTTING US IN THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO A COLD FROPA. THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS UNCERTAIN. THE WINDOW IS BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER OF
THE WEEKEND DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES...CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL ON
TUESDAY. AVERAGES SHOULD WARM TO ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR FRIDAY
BECAUSE THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT IS IN QUESTION. IF IT`S FASTER,
TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME CLIMBING ONCE AGAIN TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION...THE REGION WILL BE PRECIP FREE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WHAT TIME OF
DAY THE FRONT PASSES WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON ANY POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, AT TIMES, TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
GUSTS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
GUSTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COULD RAMP UP AGAIN ON
SUNDAY IF THE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH WORKS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC.
IMPACTS...NO WIDESPREAD IMPACTS THIS COMING WEEK ARE EXPECTED. WITH
THE BACK DOOR FRONT POTENTIALLY DIPPING INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
WEEK, WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE POOL AT THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF IT. THIS SITUATION MIGHT YIELD SOME MORNING SPRING FOG THAT
COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES DURING THE A.M. RUSH. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW
WEAK INSTABILITY ATTM, WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR KRDG AND KABE...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD. NE WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN WILL BECOME NW ON MON AND INCREASE
IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.
FOR KTTN, KPNE, KPHL AND KILG...VFR CONDS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR AS PRECIP MOVES IN. PRECIP SHUD START AS -RA LATER
THIS AFTN BUT SHUD MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO -SN DURG
THE EVE. WIND WILL BECOME NWLY AND INCREASE ON MON GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 25 KT. DURG THE LATE MRNG, CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR WILL
THEN BE EXPECTED FRO THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD.
FOR KMIV AND KACY. MVFR CONDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING WITH -RA
OCCURRING. -RA SHUD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO -SN DURG THE EVE. ITS
PSBL THERE CUD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIP. CONDS WILL DROP TO
IFR. WIND WILL BECOME NWLY BY MRNG AND CUD GUST AS HIGH AS 25 KT.
DURG THE LATE MRNG, CONDS WILL BECOME VFR, AND REMAIN VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
MONDAY NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 15
TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON ON BOTH DAYS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT IS LOW ATTM.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED. WINDS
EXPECTED TO GO NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT. SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GLW FOR THE SRN WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE SCA
FOR THE NRN WATERS AND LWR DEL BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU MON.
ADDITIONALLY UPR DEL BAY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SCA AS CONDS HAVE
BEEN CLOSE TO SCA AT BRANDYWINE AND WITH NWLY FLOW EXPECTED ON MON,
WIND COULD BECOME EVEN HIGHER ON THE NRN PORTION OF THE DEL BAY.
OUTLOOK...
CONTINUING TO LOOK LIKE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD...
MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SCA VERY LIKELY. GALES
A POSSIBILITY. GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.
TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH AND BACKING TO SOUTHWEST
BY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW. POSSIBLE SCA THOUGH THE 25 KT GUSTS
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE VERY NEARSHORE WATERS SINCE IT WILL BE MILD
AIR OVERRIDING COOLER MID-UPPER 40S SSTS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO OUR WATERS NOR THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF THE BACK DOOR DROPS INTO
THE REGION THE WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY. REGARDLESS OF TIMING, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN BREEZY WITH 2 SEPARATE FRONTS IN THE VICINITY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING AND THE HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE TREND OF A SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE
LOW, BOTH GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS
FALLING SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS BY A HALF A FOOT OR MORE.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE FURTHER WEST TRACK, IS THAT WATER LEVELS
WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE WATER LEVELS
OF THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE (PREVIOUSLY THE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING
WAS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS).
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY WITH THE ANOMALIES FOR THIS
EVENINGS HIGH TIDE, BUT STILL THINK THE THREAT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE HWO.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALL DAILY RECORDS
MAR 20
ACY 5.0 1914
THE FOLLOWING WAS GENERATED BY SARAH JOHNSON ET AL, ALL BELOW
PREDICATED ON OFFICIAL MEASURABLE SNOW
IF PHILADELPHIA MEASURES TONIGHT IT WILL BE THE 7TH TIME SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN THAT THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW HAS OCCURRED AFTER
THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR. THE OTHER YEARS WERE 1892,
1921, 1928, 1967 1990 AND 2000.
ALL OF THESE YEARS HAD THEIR EARLIER THAN NORMAL FIRST 80 DEGREE
DAY.
ABE: 6 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1963, 1967, 1978, 1986, 1990, 2014)
ACY: 2 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1990)
ILG: 4 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1985, 1990, 2000)
MARCH THROUGH 19 DAYS IS AVERAGING ABOUT 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL... WARMEST NORTH.
AS OF NOW WE ARE TRACKING 4TH WARMEST MARCH IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE
FOR PHILADELPHIA DATING BACK TO 1874. WE`VE RUN CALCULATIONS BASED
ON TODAY 330 AM FORECAST THROUGH THE 26TH, THE FTPRHA GFS 2M
MAX/MIN FROM D8-11 AND THEN NORMAL LOW HI FOR THE 31ST AND PROJECTING
PHILADELPHIA EASILY A PROBABLE TOP 10 WARMEST. THE AVG MAY SLIP A
BIT FROM THE CURRENT 50.1 DEGREES (PLUS 8.9 DEGREES SO FAR) BUT WE
ARE PROJECTING TO BE ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN
OF 43.5. IF ITS 50 DEGREES... THIS WOULD BE THE 4TH WARMEST MARCH
BEHIND
52.5 1921
52.2 2012
51.2 1945
AND JUST AHEAD OF 49.8 IN 1946.
ABE THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED #4 WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO
1922
ACY THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 6TH WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO
1874
ILG THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 10TH, RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1895.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR NJZ013-014-020-022-026-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1226 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY MONDAY. A
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW MONDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERN
STATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
TO NEAR BERMUDA WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY SAG SOUTH
INTO NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH OF MAINE FRIDAY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFF THE
EAST COAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAPPY FIRST DAY OF SPRING!
TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE AND LOCATIONS S AND E ARE NOW INTO
THE 40S, WITH MOST IN THE N AND W IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THESE
TEMPS ARE ON AVG 2 TO 3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN FCST. AGAIN, THANKS TO
THE LATE MARCH SUN! SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY HIT OR EXCEEDED THEIR
FCST HIGH FOR THE DAY SO MADE SO ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS. DON`T
THINK TEMPS WILL RISE THAT MUCH MORE BUT ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES
IS PSBL.
OVERALL HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING SITUATION WELL AGAIN, THO IT
DOESN`T HAVE THE PRECIP CURRENTLY ON RADAR OFF THE SRN NJ/DE CST.
IT CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THRU LATE AFTN. THEN IT
RAMPS THINGS UP S AND E AND REALLY GETS THINGS GOING DURG THE ERLY
EVE. THE 12Z NAM (THE ONLY 12Z GUID AVAILABLE FOR THIS UPDATE) HAS
SSHOWN A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT WITH ITS QPF FIELD.
WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW, THE WARMER TEMPS NECESSITATE MORE
OF A MENTION OF RAIN THRU THE AFTN OR AT LEAST RAIN AND SNOW. WHAT
HAPPENS BEYOND THAT WILL BE DETERMINED WHEN ADDITIONAL GUID
ARRIVES.
LTST RADAR SHOWS PRECIP OVER THE DELMARVA HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND
NO PRECIP ACRS THE REGION ATTM. GUID INDICATES THAT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SRN AREAS, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY BEFORE PRECIP POTENTIAL RAMPS UP DURG THE LATE
AFTN/ERLY EVE.
WILL WAIT UNTIL THE MRNG MDL GUID COMES IN BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THE FCST, SHUD THEY BE NEEDED.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS DUE TO
THE WARMER SURFACES AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE MID-MARCH HAS TO OFFER.
AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING, THE INTENSITY MAY START TO PICK UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS, PRECIPITATING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN OVER TO ALL SNOW. AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR
LESS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT EXPECT THE BULK
OF ANY SNOW THAT FALLS TO INITIALLY ONLY STICK TO THE NON-PAVED
SURFACES WITH THE ROADS BECOMING SLUSHY.
FURTHER INLAND, THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR WILL PREVENT
PRECIPITATION TO INITIALLY MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IT MIGHT
TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR THE DRY AIR TO ERODE BUT EVENTUALLY, THERE
WILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
IN ADDITION, IT WILL BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A BIT EVEN WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WITH THE GUIDANCE HOLDING ITS COURSE THIS MORNING, AND EVEN
PUSHING SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
WITH THE HI-RES MODELS SHOWING BANDING OCCURRING ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS AND GOOD LIFT AND SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE TONIGHT, WE HAVE UPPED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY BUT ARE STILL LOOKING
AT 2 TO 4 INCHES FALLING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.
THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE MORE WINTRY THAN SPRING-LIKE.
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY AS SNOW, PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST AREAS, THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVIEST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS, THE COLUMN WILL COOL AND WITH THE SUN NO
LONGER AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT, WE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW TAKE PLACE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND WHEN ALL IS SAID
AND DONE, WE MAY HAVE UP TO 4 INCHES ON THE GROUND, MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 MPH
BY LATE TONIGHT, REMAINING WINDIER ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY
WITH ITS AMPLIFYING 140M 12HR HFC SCOOTING NEWD FROM THE DELMARVA.
NW FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE LONG WAVE TOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FLATTENING
TO WESTERLY FLOW DURING MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS WARM. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES (REFLECTING POTENTIAL ENERGY USE): CALENDAR DAY
AVERAGES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WARMING TO
NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY, THEN ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COOLING SATURDAY TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FOR REFERENCE, THE NORMALS FOR PHILLY
DURING THE PERIOD ARE LOW TO MID 50S AND MID 30S.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/20 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, THEREAFTER THE 00Z/20 GFS MEX MOS-
05Z/20 WPC GUIDANCE. THIS FCST WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 00Z/20
ECMWF OPERATIONAL CYCLE.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY...A BLUSTERY CHILLY NW FLOW WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES IN NJ AND NE PA ENDING EARLY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
NW WIND GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISHING AT
NIGHT. HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND WE WILL HAVE TO CHECK WITH OUR PARTNERS HOW TO
HANDLE, AFTER TONIGHTS SNOW. IF SNOW DOESNT ACCUMULATE OR SNOW/RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN FORECAST, THEN WE WOULD BE QUITE CONCERNED
ABOUT FIRE DANGER. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE N PTN LATE IN ADVANCE OF A SEWD SAGGING
COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTY 15 TO 25
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE N PTN
IN ADVANCE OF A SEWD SAGGING COLD FRONT. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY HAVE SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE
DELMARVA. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS WITH A 50 50 BLEND
OF THE 00Z/20 ECMWF AND WPC. WINDS PROBABLY TURNING SOUTHEAST TO
EAST. BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME IN THIS PERIOD. EVENTUALLY TURNING A BIT COOLER. BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...FOR NOW IT LOOKS NICE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS SHUD REMAIN TO THE N AND W THRU THE TAF PD. ALG THE I-95
CORRIDOR, TEMPS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FCST THIS AFTN, SO ANY
PRECIP THAT FALLS LATER MAY ENDO UP BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR
MORE RAIN THAN SNOW AT THE ONSET. THIS CUD, IN TURN KEEP VSBYS VFR
LONGER. BY LATER THIS EVE, AS TEMPS COOL AND PRECIP CUD GET
HEAVIER MORE SNOW WILL MIX IN AND AN EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER IS
EXPECTED, WHICH WILL BRING CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR AND PSBLY
IFR.
FOR THE SERN ARPTS. MVFR IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTN WITH IFR TO
FOLLOW. AGAIN, RAIN IS ANTICIPATED, BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO BACK TO THE NORTH. GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS ARE PSBL ESPECIALLY FROM PHL S AND E.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...ANY LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS IN EARLY SNOW SHOWERS ENDS
BY 15Z. BECOMING VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BY 18Z/21. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. PATCHES OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
5000FT. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND MONDAY NIGHT BECOMING
SW TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR PATCHES OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. GUSTY WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...PROBABLY VFR. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY COMPLICATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN WITH EASTERLY WINDS. BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG HARBOR SOUTH TO FENWICK ISLAND. THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE CAROLINAS,
REMAINING TO THE EAST OF OUR WATERS. SEAS HAVE ALREADY STARTED
TO BUILD IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AND WE ARE SEEING SEAS EXCEEDING 5
FEET AT BUOY 44009 ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN UP AS THE LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST AND THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED WINDS, WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OCCURRING THIS
EVENING. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SCA PROBABLE.
MAYBE A PERIOD OF NW GALES MONDAY EVENING? FOR NOW... LESS THAN 6
HOURS OF GALE GUSTS BUT WILL NEED RECONSIDERATION FOR THE WATCH
WARNING PROCESS IN UPCOMING FORECASTS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...W-NW WINDS DIMINISH AND BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON.
HEADLINES NOT LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SCA THOUGH THE 25 KT GUSTS
WOULD BE CONFINED TO NEARSHORE WATERS SINCE IT WILL BE MILD AIR
OVERRIDING COOLER MID-UPPER 40S SSTS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THURSDAY...THE WIND MAY TURN EASTERLY BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
EXPECT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY FAVORABLE, AND
WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL OFF SHORE. BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE
AS WELL AS OUR LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING
SHY OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR BOTH THIS EVENINGS AND THE
MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER
AS A SLIGHT SHIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
COULD INCREASE THE THREAT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALL DAILY RECORDS
MAR 20
ACY 5.0 1914
THE FOLLOWING WAS GENERATED BY SARAH JOHNSON ET AL, ALL BELOW
PREDICATED ON OFFICIAL MEASURABLE SNOW
IF PHILADELPHIA MEASURES TONIGHT IT WILL BE THE 7TH TIME SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN THAT THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW HAS OCCURRED AFTER
THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR. THE OTHER YEARS WERE 1892,
1921, 1928, 1967 1990 AND 2000.
ALL OF THESE YEARS HAD THEIR EARLIER THAN NORMAL FIRST 80 DEGREE
DAY.
ABE: 6 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1963, 1967, 1978, 1986, 1990, 2014)
ACY: 2 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1990)
ILG: 4 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1985, 1990, 2000)
MARCH THROUGH 19 DAYS IS AVERAGING ABOUT 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL... WARMEST NORTH.
AS OF NOW WE ARE TRACKING 4TH WARMEST MARCH IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE
FOR PHILADELPHIA DATING BACK TO 1874. WE`VE RUN CALCULATIONS BASED
ON TODAY 330 AM FORECAST THROUGH THE 26TH, THE FTPRHA GFS 2M
MAX/MIN FROM D8-11 AND THEN NORMAL LOW HI FOR THE 31ST AND PROJECTING
PHILADELPHIA EASILY A PROBABLE TOP 10 WARMEST. THE AVG MAY SLIP A
BIT FROM THE CURRENT 50.1 DEGREES (PLUS 8.9 DEGREES SO FAR) BUT WE
ARE PROJECTING TO BE ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN
OF 43.5. IF ITS 50 DEGREES... THIS WOULD BE THE 4TH WARMEST MARCH
BEHIND
52.5 1921
52.2 2012
51.2 1945
AND JUST AHEAD OF 49.8 IN 1946.
ABE THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED #4 WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO
1922
ACY THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 6TH WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO
1874
ILG THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 10TH, RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1895.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR NJZ013-014-020-022-026-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
142 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO
SUNDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN
PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A
GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THE SAME TIME. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A VERY TIGHT DEW POINT GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST
DOWN INTO THE LOWER LEHIGH VALLEY. AS A RESULT, THE ECHOS SEEN ON
THE RADAR ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE GROUND. DEW POINTS EXTENDING FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST, CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF
OUR AREA AND RETURNS TO THE WEST ARE VERY LIGHT AND MIGHT NOT BE
MUCH MORE OF A VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLE.
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
THE NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE INDICATE A FEW BANDS OF 700-800 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE, TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE INITIAL WAVE
AND ITS LIFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT, THEREFORE
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF AS WELL. THE POPS
REFLECT THIS WITH A DECREASING TREND SOUTHWARD. FARTHER NORTH, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH EVEN THE CLOUDS THINNING
FOR A TIME.
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN.
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A MOS BLEND. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN
AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURES, MAY TEND TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
ON SUNDAY, POPS WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD, WHICH BRINGS BETTER LIFT DEEPER INTO OUR
CWA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PERHAPS SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURE ISSUES ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FOR AWHILE,
HOWEVER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING OR MOVING INLAND SOME AS THE INCOMING
TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN MORE. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING, AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON IN NEW
JERSEY. IF THIS OCCURS, QUICKER COOLING WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW
OCCURRING. AS OF NOW, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE OTHER THAN TO ADD
MORE MIX/SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYS END.
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL SO UNLESS PRECIP FALLS HARD, THE SNOW LIKELY
WOULD JUST STICK MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES, CARS ETC. THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ITS TOUGH DURING THE DAY TO GET APPRECIABLE SNOW DUE
TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE UNLESS IT COMES DOWN HARD. THE BEST CHCS
ATTM FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW FALLING WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE
EVENING HOURS. MONDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH A BREEZY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW. CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UP TICK. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO ALL THE AREA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND
FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES...ITS BEEN VERY WARM SO FAR THIS MONTH...6 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW A BRIEF COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK BEFORE IT WARMS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END. FOR
REFERENCE, THE NORMALS FOR PHILLY DURING THE PERIOD ARE LOW TO MID
50S AND MID 30S. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE
WARMING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION...THIS EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES THREE PRECIPITATION
REFERENCES. THE FIRST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITTLE IF
ANY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE SECOND REFERENCE IS MIDWEEK ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. THE THIRD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME
WITH FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
WINDS...NORTH WINDS MAINLY 10 OR LESS SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING
NORTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY ON MONDAY. THE WINDS, 10 OR LESS, WILL
START TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THEY COULD GUST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEK.
IMPACTS...NOTHING WIDESPREAD SHAPING UP ATTM. WHILE WE COULD SEE
SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE SNOW, THEY SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ATTM, IMPACTS APPEAR THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. WE COULD SEE SOME MORNING SPRING FOG LATER IN
THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT IT`T TOO SOON TO DETERMINE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THIS TIME BUT
BASES WILL REMAIN AROUND 4000-5000FT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST.
TODAY...THE DAY WILL BEGIN VFR AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SO
THROUGH MIDDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST, WE WILL
SEE INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS ON THE EASTERLY FLOW. RAIN WILL PUSH
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST, REACHING KACY AND KMIV BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND SHOULD REACH KTTN, KPHL,
KPNE AND KILG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AND THIS MAY RESULT IN A RATHER QUICK CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW AT THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNSET AND LATER.
TONIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN SNOW THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT AT THE TERMINALS, WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE AND WE HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
WESTERN TERMINALS TO SHOW THE BEST TIMING FOR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME, WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THAT MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS
KRDG AND KABE. FOR NOW WE MENTION VCSH AT KABE AND LEAVE KRDG DRY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO BACK TO THE NORTH. GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KACY AND KMIV.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WATERS THRU THE PD DUE
TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE CAROLINAS, MOVES OFF THE CST AND THEN UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
THU SUN. ATTM, IT DOES NOT APPEAR GALE CRITERIA WILL BE MET, SO
THE GALE WATCH WAS DROPPED.
OUTLOOK...
SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FAVORED WINDS LESS THAN 35 KT. WENT WITH A
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER BAY.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. A SCA
LOOKS LIKELY. MAYBE GALES MONDAY EVENING.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...DIMINISHING WIND AND HEADLINES NOT
LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SCA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
EXPECT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY FAVORABLE,
AND WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL OFF SHORE, WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS OUR LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR BOTH THE SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER AS A
SLIGHT SHIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD
INCREASE THE THREAT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1225 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO
SUNDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN
PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A
GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THE SAME TIME. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A VERY TIGHT DEW POINT GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST
DOWN INTO THE LOWER LEHIGH VALLEY. AS A RESULT, THE ECHOS SEEN ON
THE RADAR ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE GROUND. DEW POINTS EXTENDING FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST, CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF
OUR AREA AND RETURNS TO THE WEST ARE VERY LIGHT AND MIGHT NOT BE
MUCH MORE OF A VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLE.
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
THE NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE INDICATE A FEW BANDS OF 700-800 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE, TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE INITIAL WAVE
AND ITS LIFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT, THEREFORE
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF AS WELL. THE POPS
REFLECT THIS WITH A DECREASING TREND SOUTHWARD. FARTHER NORTH, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH EVEN THE CLOUDS THINNING
FOR A TIME.
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN.
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A MOS BLEND. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN
AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURES, MAY TEND TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
ON SUNDAY, POPS WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD, WHICH BRINGS BETTER LIFT DEEPER INTO OUR
CWA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PERHAPS SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURE ISSUES ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FOR AWHILE,
HOWEVER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING OR MOVING INLAND SOME AS THE INCOMING
TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN MORE. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING, AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON IN NEW
JERSEY. IF THIS OCCURS, QUICKER COOLING WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW
OCCURRING. AS OF NOW, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE OTHER THAN TO ADD
MORE MIX/SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYS END.
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL SO UNLESS PRECIP FALLS HARD, THE SNOW LIKELY
WOULD JUST STICK MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES, CARS ETC. THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ITS TOUGH DURING THE DAY TO GET APPRECIABLE SNOW DUE
TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE UNLESS IT COMES DOWN HARD. THE BEST CHCS
ATTM FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW FALLING WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE
EVENING HOURS. MONDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH A BREEZY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW. CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UP TICK. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO ALL THE AREA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND
FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES...ITS BEEN VERY WARM SO FAR THIS MONTH...6 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW A BRIEF COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK BEFORE IT WARMS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END. FOR
REFERENCE, THE NORMALS FOR PHILLY DURING THE PERIOD ARE LOW TO MID
50S AND MID 30S. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE
WARMING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION...THIS EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES THREE PRECIPITATION
REFERENCES. THE FIRST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITTLE IF
ANY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE SECOND REFERENCE IS MIDWEEK ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. THE THIRD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME
WITH FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
WINDS...NORTH WINDS MAINLY 10 OR LESS SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING
NORTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY ON MONDAY. THE WINDS, 10 OR LESS, WILL
START TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THEY COULD GUST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEK.
IMPACTS...NOTHING WIDESPREAD SHAPING UP ATTM. WHILE WE COULD SEE
SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE SNOW, THEY SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ATTM, IMPACTS APPEAR THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. WE COULD SEE SOME MORNING SPRING FOG LATER IN
THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT IT`T TOO SOON TO DETERMINE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SOME MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS MOSTLY SOUTH OF KPHL. KMIV AND KACY HAVE THE GREATER CHANCE
OF HAVING MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON
THE VISIBILITY AS THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY OVERALL MAY BE
RATHER LIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, HOWEVER FAVORING NORTHEAST
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SUNDAY...VFR CEILINGS NEAR AND NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL OVERALL, WITH
LOWER CEILINGS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE
SHIFTS WESTWARD SOME. AS A RESULT, RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED
FROM KTTN-KPNE-KPHL-KILG ON EASTWARD WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FOR AWHILE ESPECIALLY AT KMIV AND KACY. OUR CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOW SIDE HOWEVER WITH THE IMPACTS AND TIMING AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. NORTHEAST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR, LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR FOR A TIME IN
MOSTLY SNOW VCNTY KACY. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
15- 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WATERS THRU THE PD DUE
TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE CAROLINAS, MOVES OFF THE CST AND THEN UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
THU SUN. ATTM, IT DOES NOT APPEAR GALE CRITERIA WILL BE MET, SO
THE GALE WATCH WAS DROPPED.
OUTLOOK...
SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FAVORED WINDS LESS THAN 35 KT. WENT WITH A
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER BAY.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. A SCA
LOOKS LIKELY. MAYBE GALES MONDAY EVENING.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...DIMINISHING WIND AND HEADLINES NOT
LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SCA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
EXPECT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY FAVORABLE,
AND WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL OFF SHORE, WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS OUR LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR BOTH THE SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER AS A
SLIGHT SHIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD
INCREASE THE THREAT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
10 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES AGAIN TODAY...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT/MONDAY...
...MUCH COOLER/DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK...
CURRENT...REGIONAL RADAR MOSIAC LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THE PAST TWO HOURS. TWO MAIN AREAS OF PRECIP FROM EASTERN
SEMINOLE AND ORANGE COUNTIES INTO NORTH BREVARD AND IN MARTIN COUNTY.
LOOP MOTION SHOWS THAT THESE SHOWERS SHOULD TRANSITION INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS NEXT HOUR OR TWO. BUOY AND CMAN MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND A WEST WIND AT THE BUOYS
20NM EAST OF THE CAPE AND AT SEBASTIAN INLET. THE 12Z/8AM NCEP SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT STILL NORTH IN THE NORTHEAST GULF...THE
BIG BEND AREA AND NORTH FLORIDA AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EVERGLADES AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.
WILL UPDATE THE NORTH FORECAST AREA TO SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/20 POP
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP THE HIGHER POP FOR THE CENTER AND SOUTHERN
AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...UNLESS THE RADAR TREND FORCES LAST
MINUTE CHANGES.
UPDATE...
.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS AND TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITY KMCO-KTIX-KXMR
SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.MARINE...THE BUOYS...NOAA AND SCRIPPS...SHOW WEST WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. WINDS LOCAL WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES
WEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT TO THE NORTH NEARS AND MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 332 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
CURRENT...MILD AND MOIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE. MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH VERY LIGHT SWRLY WINDS. NEXRAD 88D SHOWS
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A SLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
TODAY-TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY SUNRISE MON MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND SHOULD LIE NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
BEHIND IT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES AND NORTHERN GOMEX. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND ANY LIGHTNING STORM THREAT.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB WILL STILL BE BETWEEN -11C AND -13C WITH
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL POOL TO
AROUND 1.70 INCHES AHEAD/ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE MCLOUDY...THOUGH ANY PEAKS OF SUNSHINE MAY ACT TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
OVERALL WEAK. WILL INSTALL 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS ALONG I-4 NORTHWARD
INCREASING TO 50 TO 80 PERCENT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MARTIN COUNTY.
WHILE THE THUNDER THREAT WILL BE LOW OVERALL...BELIEVE GREATEST
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOUTHWARD FROM ORLANDO THROUGH THE DAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST. MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST
AT 30 TO 40 MPH.
WSW/W SURFACE FLOW WILL OCCUR WITH WINDS BECOMING WNW BEHIND IT
LATER TODAY AND A BIT MORE NWRLY TONIGHT. EXPECT A WIND SURGE LATER
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH WIND SPEEDS BECOMING BREEZY 15
TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE M-U70S ACROSS I-4 AND U70S TO L80S SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
COVERAGE WARNING AREA. MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING OVER MARTIN
COUNTY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE M-U40S NORTH OF I-4...U40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE INTERIOR/SPACE COAST...EXCEPT L/M50S TREASURE COAST.
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WINDS TOWARD EARLY MON MORNING TEMPERATURES
WILL FEEL LIKE L-M40S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
MON-MON NIGHT...DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR MASS
WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. ASIDE FROM SOME UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AT THE START OF THE DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S (ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR MID MARCH). RIDGE AXIS WILL SIT JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AT
SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THANKS TO EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID
40S MOST AREA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM MELBOURNE SOUTH
THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST.
TUE-THU...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE JUST TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER MIDWEEK ALLOWING TEMPS AND MOISTURE TO MODIFY. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...LOW END PRECIP CHANCES
ENTER THE PICTURE BEGINNING THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH OF ORLANDO.
FRI-SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE WORKWEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
BOTH OF THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS POINT TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING
OUT NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
TRAVERSING OVER THE AREA LOOK TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON SOUTHWARD FROM KMCO. A
SMALL THREAT OF THUNDER WILL EXIST TOO...MAINLY SOUTH OF KMCO. TEMPO
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PCPN TODAY. LIGHT W/WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BECOMING WNW/NW BEHIND IT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS AROUND
15 KTS AND FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS PAST MID EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
WILL MONITOR THIS MORNING FOR MVFR CIGS AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL COVERAGE OF THIS. SKY CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR
FILTERS DOWN THE PENINSULA.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERY
OFFSHORE MOVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FORECAST WITH THUNDER
POSSIBLE...MAINLY CAPE SOUTHWARD. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
GREATEST CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS SOUTHWARD FROM SEBASTIAN INLET.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING. GENERALLY WESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH WINDS BECOMING WNW/NW LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 6-12 KTS AREAWIDE
TODAY...INCREASING BEHIND A WIND SURGE TONIGHT TO 25-30 KTS OFFSHORE
AND 20-25 KTS NEAR SHORE AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
OPEN ATLC LATE TONIGHT. TO KEEP ADVISORIES CLEAN...WILL INITIATE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE LEGS BEGINNING AT 02Z/10PM
TONIGHT. INITIAL SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT
OFFSHORE...GRADUALLY BUILDING LATE OVERNIGHT TO 6-8 FT OFFSHORE AND
5-6 FT NEAR SHORE ALL BY DAYBREAK MON MORNING.
MON...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON
MONDAY WITH HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RELAX LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. SCA`S
LIKELY TO BE SCALED BACK AS WE HEAD INTO LATE MON NIGHT.
TUE-THU...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX MIDWEEK AS NORTH WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY THE
SOUTHEAST. WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY BUT COULD SEE A SMALL
THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM BY WED NIGHT AS
MOISTURE SLOWLY REBUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...TONIGHT...WNW/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEHIND A RECENT COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT.
MON-TUE...MUCH COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK AHEAD.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF MIN RHS IN
THE M-U20S ACROSS INTERIOR COUNTIES AND RANGING FROM THE M-U30S
ALONG THE EAST COAST. NW/N WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY ON MON AS THE
PGRAD REMAINS TIGHT. DEPENDING ON ERC VALUES ON MON...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS (WIND/RH) MON
AFTERNOON. RHS BEGIN A SLOW/GRADUAL RECOVERY ON TUE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL MAY SEE AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE U20S/L30S WELL INTO THE INTERIOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 47 64 44 / 50 10 0 0
MCO 80 50 67 43 / 40 10 0 0
MLB 78 50 65 45 / 70 10 0 0
VRB 78 54 65 48 / 70 20 0 0
LEE 77 50 67 41 / 40 0 0 0
SFB 77 49 66 43 / 40 10 0 0
ORL 79 49 67 43 / 40 10 0 0
FPR 80 54 65 48 / 70 20 10 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1257 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
Upper level low and associated showers pulling off to the south
this morning. Some clearing behind the showers off to the north,
but expect will fill in with cu this afternoon. The first day of
spring is a little cooler than the past week...and a couple of
degrees below normal. Large changes in the forecast are not
expected at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows trough axis bisecting the KILX CWA
from near Galesburg to just south of Paris. Scattered light rain
showers are occurring in the vicinity of this feature, with a few
obs occasionally reporting light snow. With upper levels continuing
to cool as closed 500mb low tracks southeastward along the
Mississippi River, think a light rain/snow mix will continue through
the early morning. Due to surface temps above freezing and
relatively warm soil conditions, no accumulation is expected. The
trough will gradually settle southward today, pushing any lingering
light precip south of the CWA by midday. Based on current radar
loops and latest HRRR forecast, have carried low chance PoPs
along/south of a Jacksonville to Mattoon line this morning, then
have gone dry everywhere for the afternoon. Skies are currently
cloudy: however, a dry low-level airmass to the northeast has helped
skies clear over Michigan and northern Indiana. As the trough axis
sinks southward and winds become northeasterly, this drier air will
try to work its way into central Illinois. Think portions of the NE
CWA may partially clear for a time this morning, before diurnal CU
redevelops, leading to a partly to mostly cloudy day. High
temperatures will again be below normal for this time of year in the
middle 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
High pressure will build into the region tonight, resulting in
clearing skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the upper
20s and lower 30s. The cool/dry weather will continue into Monday
before the high shifts to the east and a strong southerly return
flow develops Monday night into Tuesday. Pressure gradient between
departing high and developing low over the Plains will result in
sustained southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph on Tuesday, with gusts
reaching 30 mph at times. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and a
good deal of sunshine, high temperatures will soar into the 60s.
A frontal boundary will sag southward into north-central Illinois
Tuesday night. As increasing moisture flows northward and interacts
with the front, a few showers will be possible along/north of a
Peoria to Bloomington line. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible across the entire CWA on Wednesday as the airmass
becomes more unstable and low pressure slowly approaches from the
west. With strongest forcing remaining further north and west, have
only carried slight chance PoPs across most of the area, with higher
PoPs confined to the far north in closer conjunction to the
baroclinic zone.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for the end of the week,
particularly concerning the speed of an approaching short-wave
trough and how fast it will push a frontal boundary through central
Illinois. All models have sped up this process from previous runs,
with the 00z Mar 20 GFS now becoming the fastest. The GFS shows a
991mb over Lake Michigan, with the trailing cold front along the
Illinois/Indiana border by 12z Thu. Meanwhile, both the GEM and
ECMWF have quickened from their prior runs, but are about 12 hours
slower than the GFS. The ECMWF has the low over central Illinois
and the GEM places it over northern Missouri 12z Thu. Given that
the GFS has made such an abrupt change from its solution just 24
hours ago, prefer to side with the slower GEM/ECMWF. As a result,
am focusing the greatest rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday
when likely PoPs for showers/thunder are warranted. Will linger
lower rain chances into Thursday night as the system departs,
followed by a return to dry weather for Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
Upper level low rotating around the broader trof as high pressure
at the surface continues to build into the region. Majority of the
clouds expected to break up after sunset for ILX terminals. Bigger
issue will be the potential for fog over DEC after some snow has
boosted llvl moisture. Have started a trend, but BUFKit soundings
with an adjusted xover temp are not that obvious with the fog
development. Starting the trend at low end MVFR, but will have to
keep an eye on the dry air working into the region.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...
306 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
FAIRLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WHILE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES BEGIN TUESDAY WITH A BIG WARMUP ACROSS
THE REGION FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AS IT
PASSES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN RACE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
IS NOTED STRETCHING FROM NEAR CMI NORTHWEST TO PIA THEN MLI. A FEW
SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA HOWEVER THOSE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE FOCUS
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BUILDING OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE TODAY...AND DEEP
MIXING CAPPED BY A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIP
FROM OCCURRING TODAY DESPITE SOME MODELS LIKE THE HRRR TRYING TO
BREAK OUT MODEST POPCORN CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S TODAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE FRONT
BUT IF ANYTHING THERE SEEMS POTENTIAL TO GO WARMER IF WE SEE MORE
SUNSHINE. KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO RIGHT AROUND 40
AGAIN IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT PROVIDING CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S. ON MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE THE GRADIENT TO REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...BUT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY
SHUNT ITS INLAND PROGRESS. THIS MAKES TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY FOR
THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE LAKE AS ITS UNSURE HOW MUCH PROGRESS
THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE. AREAS UNAFFECTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE ARE
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE...BUT
NEAR THE LAKE WILL ONLY CALL FOR MID 40S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
306 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BRINGING AT LEAST A DAY OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS A STABLE WAVE
TRANSLATES EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SERVE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO CAUSING A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA OR VERY NEARBY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG JET
IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CARVE OUT A
DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS IT DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW
LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
DISTANCE...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODELS. GFS
TRACKS THE LOW RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
HAS DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK
WHICH TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN THURSDAY. A LOT WILL HINGE ON
THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER VS MIXED PRECIP/SNOW...60S VS 30S FOR TEMPS. AT THIS
DISTANCE...MAINTAINED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO HONE IN FURTHER ON THE DETAILS AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK WITH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS DETAILS OF
WIND DIRECTION FOR ORD/MDW TODAY.
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREADING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN RESPONSE...WINDS
HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED TO NORTHERLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP...A LAKE BREEZE AND ONSHORE
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AS TEMPERATURES INLAND RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S UNDER COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NELY WINDS HAVE SET
UP AT ORD/MDW...WHILE WINDS REMAIN PREVAILING NLY AT RFD/DPA/GYY.
WITH DEEP MIXING...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 12-14KT RANGE WITH
OCNL HIGHER GUSTS TO 18-20KT UNTIL ARND SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT AND
PUSHES TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. AS
THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE TERMINALS...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH WINDS BACKING TO SWLY
BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
OTRW...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
200 AM CDT
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY...THEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY GALES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING SOUTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...ALLOWING A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. WEATHER FOR THE WESTERN LAKES WILL THEN
TURN MORE ACTIVE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...WITH A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST AND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL DEEPEN AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
25-30 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PASSES. AS THE
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MOST OF THE LAKE...AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE
30 KT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES
AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WINDS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE WILL
LIKELY BE WEAKER...IN THE REGION OF WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE LOW. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW...THOUGH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES DO APPEAR LIKELY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW SCOOTS BY TO THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1044 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
Upper level low and associated showers pulling off to the south
this morning. Some clearing behind the showers off to the north,
but expect will fill in with cu this afternoon. The first day of
spring is a little cooler than the past week...and a couple of
degrees below normal. Large changes in the forecast are not
expected at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows trough axis bisecting the KILX CWA
from near Galesburg to just south of Paris. Scattered light rain
showers are occurring in the vicinity of this feature, with a few
obs occasionally reporting light snow. With upper levels continuing
to cool as closed 500mb low tracks southeastward along the
Mississippi River, think a light rain/snow mix will continue through
the early morning. Due to surface temps above freezing and
relatively warm soil conditions, no accumulation is expected. The
trough will gradually settle southward today, pushing any lingering
light precip south of the CWA by midday. Based on current radar
loops and latest HRRR forecast, have carried low chance PoPs
along/south of a Jacksonville to Mattoon line this morning, then
have gone dry everywhere for the afternoon. Skies are currently
cloudy: however, a dry low-level airmass to the northeast has helped
skies clear over Michigan and northern Indiana. As the trough axis
sinks southward and winds become northeasterly, this drier air will
try to work its way into central Illinois. Think portions of the NE
CWA may partially clear for a time this morning, before diurnal CU
redevelops, leading to a partly to mostly cloudy day. High
temperatures will again be below normal for this time of year in the
middle 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
High pressure will build into the region tonight, resulting in
clearing skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the upper
20s and lower 30s. The cool/dry weather will continue into Monday
before the high shifts to the east and a strong southerly return
flow develops Monday night into Tuesday. Pressure gradient between
departing high and developing low over the Plains will result in
sustained southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph on Tuesday, with gusts
reaching 30 mph at times. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and a
good deal of sunshine, high temperatures will soar into the 60s.
A frontal boundary will sag southward into north-central Illinois
Tuesday night. As increasing moisture flows northward and interacts
with the front, a few showers will be possible along/north of a
Peoria to Bloomington line. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible across the entire CWA on Wednesday as the airmass
becomes more unstable and low pressure slowly approaches from the
west. With strongest forcing remaining further north and west, have
only carried slight chance PoPs across most of the area, with higher
PoPs confined to the far north in closer conjunction to the
baroclinic zone.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for the end of the week,
particularly concerning the speed of an approaching short-wave
trough and how fast it will push a frontal boundary through central
Illinois. All models have sped up this process from previous runs,
with the 00z Mar 20 GFS now becoming the fastest. The GFS shows a
991mb over Lake Michigan, with the trailing cold front along the
Illinois/Indiana border by 12z Thu. Meanwhile, both the GEM and
ECMWF have quickened from their prior runs, but are about 12 hours
slower than the GFS. The ECMWF has the low over central Illinois
and the GEM places it over northern Missouri 12z Thu. Given that
the GFS has made such an abrupt change from its solution just 24
hours ago, prefer to side with the slower GEM/ECMWF. As a result,
am focusing the greatest rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday
when likely PoPs for showers/thunder are warranted. Will linger
lower rain chances into Thursday night as the system departs,
followed by a return to dry weather for Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
Low VFR cigs with tempo MVFR cigs this morning in isolated light
rain and snow showers. The precip threat ends by 14z with forecast
soundings suggesting some decent low level mixing occurring which
should result in higher based cigs this afternoon (3500-5000 ft).
The weather system producing the cloud cover and light precip
should push south of our area by later this afternoon with a
decrease in cloud cover expected tonight as weak high pressure
settles in from the west. Surface winds will be northerly today at
10 to 15 kts with a light northwest flow expected tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
610 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...
306 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
FAIRLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WHILE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES BEGIN TUESDAY WITH A BIG WARMUP ACROSS
THE REGION FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AS IT
PASSES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN RACE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
IS NOTED STRETCHING FROM NEAR CMI NORTHWEST TO PIA THEN MLI. A FEW
SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA HOWEVER THOSE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE FOCUS
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BUILDING OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE TODAY...AND DEEP
MIXING CAPPED BY A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIP
FROM OCCURRING TODAY DESPITE SOME MODELS LIKE THE HRRR TRYING TO
BREAK OUT MODEST POPCORN CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S TODAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE FRONT
BUT IF ANYTHING THERE SEEMS POTENTIAL TO GO WARMER IF WE SEE MORE
SUNSHINE. KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO RIGHT AROUND 40
AGAIN IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT PROVIDING CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S. ON MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE THE GRADIENT TO REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...BUT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY
SHUNT ITS INLAND PROGRESS. THIS MAKES TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY FOR
THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE LAKE AS ITS UNSURE HOW MUCH PROGRESS
THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE. AREAS UNAFFECTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE ARE
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE...BUT
NEAR THE LAKE WILL ONLY CALL FOR MID 40S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
306 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BRINGING AT LEAST A DAY OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS A STABLE WAVE
TRANSLATES EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SERVE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO CAUSING A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA OR VERY NEARBY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG JET
IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CARVE OUT A
DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS IT DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW
LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
DISTANCE...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODELS. GFS
TRACKS THE LOW RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
HAS DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK
WHICH TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN THURSDAY. A LOT WILL HINGE ON
THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER VS MIXED PRECIP/SNOW...60S VS 30S FOR TEMPS. AT THIS
DISTANCE...MAINTAINED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO HONE IN FURTHER ON THE DETAILS AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK WITH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
ONLY MINOR AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING IS DETAILS OF WIND
DIRECTION FOR ORD/MDW TODAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH AN EXPECTED TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AS LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS WITHIN BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC
NORTH FLOW. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO BE AROUND 10 KT...GENERALLY 9-13
KT. GRADIENT WEAKENS TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH LIGHT/VARIABLE PERIODS POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...STILL SEEING SOME FEW020-025 DRIFTING
IN FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH OVERALL SHOULD SEE
DECREASING VFR CLOUD COVER.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
200 AM CDT
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY...THEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY GALES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING SOUTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...ALLOWING A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. WEATHER FOR THE WESTERN LAKES WILL THEN
TURN MORE ACTIVE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...WITH A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST AND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL DEEPEN AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
25-30 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PASSES. AS THE
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MOST OF THE LAKE...AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE
30 KT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES
AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WINDS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE WILL
LIKELY BE WEAKER...IN THE REGION OF WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE LOW. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW...THOUGH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES DO APPEAR LIKELY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW SCOOTS BY TO THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
602 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows trough axis bisecting the KILX CWA
from near Galesburg to just south of Paris. Scattered light rain
showers are occurring in the vicinity of this feature, with a few
obs occasionally reporting light snow. With upper levels continuing
to cool as closed 500mb low tracks southeastward along the
Mississippi River, think a light rain/snow mix will continue through
the early morning. Due to surface temps above freezing and
relatively warm soil conditions, no accumulation is expected. The
trough will gradually settle southward today, pushing any lingering
light precip south of the CWA by midday. Based on current radar
loops and latest HRRR forecast, have carried low chance PoPs
along/south of a Jacksonville to Mattoon line this morning, then
have gone dry everywhere for the afternoon. Skies are currently
cloudy: however, a dry low-level airmass to the northeast has helped
skies clear over Michigan and northern Indiana. As the trough axis
sinks southward and winds become northeasterly, this drier air will
try to work its way into central Illinois. Think portions of the NE
CWA may partially clear for a time this morning, before diurnal CU
redevelops, leading to a partly to mostly cloudy day. High
temperatures will again be below normal for this time of year in the
middle 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
High pressure will build into the region tonight, resulting in
clearing skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the upper
20s and lower 30s. The cool/dry weather will continue into Monday
before the high shifts to the east and a strong southerly return
flow develops Monday night into Tuesday. Pressure gradient between
departing high and developing low over the Plains will result in
sustained southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph on Tuesday, with gusts
reaching 30 mph at times. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and a
good deal of sunshine, high temperatures will soar into the 60s.
A frontal boundary will sag southward into north-central Illinois
Tuesday night. As increasing moisture flows northward and interacts
with the front, a few showers will be possible along/north of a
Peoria to Bloomington line. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible across the entire CWA on Wednesday as the airmass
becomes more unstable and low pressure slowly approaches from the
west. With strongest forcing remaining further north and west, have
only carried slight chance PoPs across most of the area, with higher
PoPs confined to the far north in closer conjunction to the
baroclinic zone.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for the end of the week,
particularly concerning the speed of an approaching short-wave
trough and how fast it will push a frontal boundary through central
Illinois. All models have sped up this process from previous runs,
with the 00z Mar 20 GFS now becoming the fastest. The GFS shows a
991mb over Lake Michigan, with the trailing cold front along the
Illinois/Indiana border by 12z Thu. Meanwhile, both the GEM and
ECMWF have quickened from their prior runs, but are about 12 hours
slower than the GFS. The ECMWF has the low over central Illinois
and the GEM places it over northern Missouri 12z Thu. Given that
the GFS has made such an abrupt change from its solution just 24
hours ago, prefer to side with the slower GEM/ECMWF. As a result,
am focusing the greatest rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday
when likely PoPs for showers/thunder are warranted. Will linger
lower rain chances into Thursday night as the system departs,
followed by a return to dry weather for Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
Low VFR cigs with tempo MVFR cigs this morning in isolated light
rain and snow showers. The precip threat ends by 14z with forecast
soundings suggesting some decent low level mixing occurring which
should result in higher based cigs this afternoon (3500-5000 ft).
The weather system producing the cloud cover and light precip
should push south of our area by later this afternoon with a
decrease in cloud cover expected tonight as weak high pressure
settles in from the west. Surface winds will be northerly today at
10 to 15 kts with a light northwest flow expected tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows trough axis bisecting the KILX CWA
from near Galesburg to just south of Paris. Scattered light rain
showers are occurring in the vicinity of this feature, with a few
obs occasionally reporting light snow. With upper levels continuing
to cool as closed 500mb low tracks southeastward along the
Mississippi River, think a light rain/snow mix will continue through
the early morning. Due to surface temps above freezing and
relatively warm soil conditions, no accumulation is expected. The
trough will gradually settle southward today, pushing any lingering
light precip south of the CWA by midday. Based on current radar
loops and latest HRRR forecast, have carried low chance PoPs
along/south of a Jacksonville to Mattoon line this morning, then
have gone dry everywhere for the afternoon. Skies are currently
cloudy: however, a dry low-level airmass to the northeast has helped
skies clear over Michigan and northern Indiana. As the trough axis
sinks southward and winds become northeasterly, this drier air will
try to work its way into central Illinois. Think portions of the NE
CWA may partially clear for a time this morning, before diurnal CU
redevelops, leading to a partly to mostly cloudy day. High
temperatures will again be below normal for this time of year in the
middle 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
High pressure will build into the region tonight, resulting in
clearing skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the upper
20s and lower 30s. The cool/dry weather will continue into Monday
before the high shifts to the east and a strong southerly return
flow develops Monday night into Tuesday. Pressure gradient between
departing high and developing low over the Plains will result in
sustained southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph on Tuesday, with gusts
reaching 30 mph at times. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and a
good deal of sunshine, high temperatures will soar into the 60s.
A frontal boundary will sag southward into north-central Illinois
Tuesday night. As increasing moisture flows northward and interacts
with the front, a few showers will be possible along/north of a
Peoria to Bloomington line. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible across the entire CWA on Wednesday as the airmass
becomes more unstable and low pressure slowly approaches from the
west. With strongest forcing remaining further north and west, have
only carried slight chance PoPs across most of the area, with higher
PoPs confined to the far north in closer conjunction to the
baroclinic zone.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for the end of the week,
particularly concerning the speed of an approaching short-wave
trough and how fast it will push a frontal boundary through central
Illinois. All models have sped up this process from previous runs,
with the 00z Mar 20 GFS now becoming the fastest. The GFS shows a
991mb over Lake Michigan, with the trailing cold front along the
Illinois/Indiana border by 12z Thu. Meanwhile, both the GEM and
ECMWF have quickened from their prior runs, but are about 12 hours
slower than the GFS. The ECMWF has the low over central Illinois
and the GEM places it over northern Missouri 12z Thu. Given that
the GFS has made such an abrupt change from its solution just 24
hours ago, prefer to side with the slower GEM/ECMWF. As a result,
am focusing the greatest rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday
when likely PoPs for showers/thunder are warranted. Will linger
lower rain chances into Thursday night as the system departs,
followed by a return to dry weather for Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs...except
for a couple of hours at the beginning at CMI where light rain is
occurring. All other sites may or may not see pcpn, so will keep
VCSH at all sites overnight. Cig heights should be 4.5kft to 5kft
overnight. By morning, lower clouds will scatter out with broken
mid clouds around 10kft. Any pcpn should be south of the sites
based on current short term hi-res model forecasts, showing the
sfc trough rotating through the area overnight. With less clouds
tomorrow morning, believe cu will develop during the afternoon and
be broken at times...so have this as a TEMPO group during the
afternoon. By early evening skies should become clear. Winds will
be variable at PIA and BMI, with other sites more northwest to
north. All sites will see northerly winds during the morning and
then become northwest for the afternoon and evening. Wind speeds
will be less than 10kts overnight and tomorrow, then become
10-13kts for the afternoon, then less during the evening.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
311 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...
306 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
FAIRLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WHILE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES BEGIN TUESDAY WITH A BIG WARMUP ACROSS
THE REGION FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AS IT
PASSES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN RACE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
IS NOTED STRETCHING FROM NEAR CMI NORTHWEST TO PIA THEN MLI. A FEW
SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA HOWEVER THOSE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE FOCUS
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BUILDING OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE TODAY...AND DEEP
MIXING CAPPED BY A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIP
FROM OCCURRING TODAY DESPITE SOME MODELS LIKE THE HRRR TRYING TO
BREAK OUT MODEST POPCORN CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S TODAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE FRONT
BUT IF ANYTHING THERE SEEMS POTENTIAL TO GO WARMER IF WE SEE MORE
SUNSHINE. KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO RIGHT AROUND 40
AGAIN IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT PROVIDING CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S. ON MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE THE GRADIENT TO REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...BUT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY
SHUNT ITS INLAND PROGRESS. THIS MAKES TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY FOR
THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE LAKE AS ITS UNSURE HOW MUCH PROGRESS
THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE. AREAS UNAFFECTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE ARE
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE...BUT
NEAR THE LAKE WILL ONLY CALL FOR MID 40S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
306 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BRINGING AT LEAST A DAY OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS A STABLE WAVE
TRANSLATES EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SERVE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO CAUSING A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA OR VERY NEARBY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG JET
IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CARVE OUT A
DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS IT DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW
LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
DISTANCE...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODELS. GFS
TRACKS THE LOW RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
HAS DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK
WHICH TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN THURSDAY. A LOT WILL HINGE ON
THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER VS MIXED PRECIP/SNOW...60S VS 30S FOR TEMPS. AT THIS
DISTANCE...MAINTAINED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO HONE IN FURTHER ON THE DETAILS AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK WITH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A FEW LAYERS OF HIGHER VFR CLOUDS
WRAPPING WESTWARD AROUND THIS CIRCULATION ACROSS THE TERMINALS...
THOUGH RELATIVELY DRY AIR UPSTREAM TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WAS
LIMITING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO JUST SOME PATCHY 2500 FT STRATOCU PER
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO WEB CAM VIEWS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS CURRENTLY AROUND 33010 KT WILL LIKELY BACK MORE NORTHERLY
350-010 DEG SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT TYPICALLY
WILL PRODUCE A NORTHEAST COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A
LAKE BREEZE SUPERIMPOSED ON SYNOPTIC NORTHERLIES. THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED A NORTHEAST WIND FOR ORD/MDW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
200 AM CDT
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY...THEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY GALES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING SOUTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...ALLOWING A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. WEATHER FOR THE WESTERN LAKES WILL THEN
TURN MORE ACTIVE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...WITH A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST AND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL DEEPEN AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
25-30 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PASSES. AS THE
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MOST OF THE LAKE...AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE
30 KT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES
AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WINDS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE WILL
LIKELY BE WEAKER...IN THE REGION OF WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE LOW. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW...THOUGH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES DO APPEAR LIKELY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW SCOOTS BY TO THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
605 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
07Z water vapor imagery shows a closed upper low over northeast MO
with a shortwave trough rotating through east central KS. An upper
level ridge was gradually amplifying over the western half of the
U.S. as an upper trough sets up over the eastern Pacific. Surface
obs indicated the center of a cold high pressure system was over the
NEB panhandle with some cold air advection occurring at the surface.
For today and tonight, the weather should be quiet with no real
sensible weather anticipated. There is a consensus among the models
that any forcing for precip will shifting east with the closed upper
low and the upper level ridge should replace it as it propagates
east into the plains. Additionally there is no moisture advection
anticipated into an already dry airmass. About the only thing to
watch is for some lingering mid clouds on the back side of the upper
low across eastern KS. We may start to see some weak warm air
advection today as the center of the surface ridge passes to the
south and winds shift to the west. However models are slow to bring
much warmer air into the region as as the warm air advection
occurs late in the day and 850MB temps remain in the -2C to
-4C range. So even with deep mixing through 850MB, highs are only
expected to be around 50 this afternoon. Freezing temps are expected
again for Monday morning as skies clear and the boundary layer
radiates out. Although lows should be a tad warmer since there is
expected to be a south and southwest wind to keep some mixing. This
is likely to impact locations up on hills more so than spots within
the KS river valley. With this in mind, have lows in the mid 20s for
the low lying areas and lows around 30 for locations that are
slightly more elevated and exposed to the wind.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
Main concern for the week is fire weather conditions being in the
elevated to potentially critical through Wednesday this week for
portions of the area. This is in part to an upper trough entering
the Pacific NW, developing an elongated sfc trough from British
Columbia through the western plains region. Southerly winds are
expected to increase between 20 and 25 mph along and south of the
Interstate 70 corridor with weaker winds to the north. Some
uncertainty exists on RH values Monday as moisture advection
increases dewpoints into the 30s during the afternoon. Latest runs
of the MET guidance combined with RAW guidance are showing slightly
cooler highs in the upper 60s. I am siding closer to the MAV
guidance given how it has handled the abnormally warmer temps seen
in previous forecasts. So with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s, min
RH values range between 25 and 30 percent. Because of this
reasoning, confidence in location of a fire weather watch was too
low to issue. Will be considering a watch in the next forecast
period.
For Tuesday and Wednesday, fire danger concerns increase as winds
remain gusty during the overnight periods and speeds during the
afternoon are likely between 15 to 25 mph sustained. On Tuesday,
these winds center over far east central Kansas where on Wednesday
they spread westward towards central Kansas. Stronger mixing aloft
will overcome the moisture advection especially north central Kansas
on Tuesday with min RH in the lower 20s, becoming more widespread on
Wednesday as the dry line/cold front enters the CWA. Its likely that
we will have fire weather headlines sometime during this three day
period.
Focus shifts to precip chances as the upper trough axis tracks over
Kansas late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Confidence
in this system is still low as now the ECMWF has become more
inconsistent with the Canadian in the speed of the system, now being
considered the slower solutions. With the slower speeds comes better
dynamics and forcing with the wave, developing a nice deformation
zone on the northwest side of the low during the day Thursday.
Meanwhile the GFS is much faster and not so realistic with how
quickly it ends precip. Current forecast overall shows increasing
uncertainty that much of the area could be in the dry slot of the
system, receiving little to no precip. Therefore trended pops down
Wednesday evening, especially over east central areas. If any precip
occurs during early evening hours, steepening mid level lapse rates
could produce an isolated storm. After midnight, temps quickly fall
in the lower to middle 30s, suggesting a rain snow mix. The next
upper shortwave trough is quick to follow for the weekend. The
positive tilt of the system and its progressive nature would suggest
a chance for some light rain, especially Saturday evening with the
best forcing centered over the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
The RAP and NAM suggest the MVFR stratocu will linger over TOP and
FOE until around 15Z. This seems to line up with the current
satellite trends. Once the lower clouds move east, VFR conditions
should prevail due to a lack of forcing and dry air in the lower
atmosphere.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
317 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
UPDATE THE FORECAST PRIMARILY FOR SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAKNESS RUNNING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. ALONG
THIS...NORTHWEST AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THIS WAY. CLOSER TO HOME...A FEW SPRINKLES OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER CLOUDS EAST OF JKL. ELSEWHERE...
THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP AND RETREATING EAST WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOUND TO THE WEST. THE CLEARING IS
HELPING TO DROP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF EXTRA DEGREES WITH UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE NORTHWEST OF JACKSON WHILE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S ARE NOTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ALSO VARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTH
AND FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH.
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WITH A SLEW OF ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY WILL
BRUSH THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND INTO MONDAY...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS SOME OF THE
MORE RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TO FOLLOW. GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COOL END TO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE WORST OF THE CHILL.
WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...A
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIP JUST EAST OF SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND LIKELY BRUSH THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. FOR
THIS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...BUT...DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATE WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW/TROUGH PASSING BY...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY HAVE ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WX GRIDS FOR
THIS. THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT BY EVENING AND SETS THE STAGE FOR
A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES A GOOD BET ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE WX GRIDS AND WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO AS OUR FROST FREEZE HEADLINE PROGRAM WILL
NOT START FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A SMALL
RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT SET UP AS THE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY...
DESPITE THE CHILLY START.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER. HAVE ADJUSTED
THESE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE SLIGHT TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE FOR TODAY...EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...POPS WERE
KEPT NEAR ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST BY TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND A DEVELOP
LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WINDS AND MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS AS HIGHS SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S ON
TUESDAY...AND NEAR 70 BY WEDNESDAY. THE WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WE
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
WESTERN US AND PUSH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS
ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM...SO RAIN CHANCES
HAVE CONTINUED TO GO UP WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THIS SYSTEM
IS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND WE SHOULD DRY OUT AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY
OVER EASTER WEEKEND...SETTING UP A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON THIS IDEA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT WILL PUSH EAST
FOLLOWING SUNRISE. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRAY
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO THREATEN THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT SME...FOR THIS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
...HIGH FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
GIVEN THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY
LOW AFTERNOON/EVENING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON TUESDAY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND HIGH
WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY AND VERY
CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH RIGHT NOW...BUT WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ONE IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THESE
CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO COME ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE GRADIENT RELAXING SOME FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW RH WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
FIRE WEATHER...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
810 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
UPDATE THE FORECAST PRIMARILY FOR SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAKNESS RUNNING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. ALONG
THIS...NORTHWEST AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THIS WAY. CLOSER TO HOME...A FEW SPRINKLES OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER CLOUDS EAST OF JKL. ELSEWHERE...
THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP AND RETREATING EAST WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOUND TO THE WEST. THE CLEARING IS
HELPING TO DROP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF EXTRA DEGREES WITH UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE NORTHWEST OF JACKSON WHILE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S ARE NOTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ALSO VARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTH
AND FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH.
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WITH A SLEW OF ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY WILL
BRUSH THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND INTO MONDAY...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS SOME OF THE
MORE RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TO FOLLOW. GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COOL END TO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE WORST OF THE CHILL.
WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...A
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIP JUST EAST OF SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND LIKELY BRUSH THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. FOR
THIS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...BUT...DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATE WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW/TROUGH PASSING BY...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY HAVE ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WX GRIDS FOR
THIS. THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT BY EVENING AND SETS THE STAGE FOR
A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES A GOOD BET ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE WX GRIDS AND WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO AS OUR FROST FREEZE HEADLINE PROGRAM WILL
NOT START FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A SMALL
RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT SET UP AS THE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY...
DESPITE THE CHILLY START.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER. HAVE ADJUSTED
THESE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE SLIGHT TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE FOR TODAY...EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...POPS WERE
KEPT NEAR ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH MAYBE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS...THEREFORE LOWERED VALLEY TEMPS GIVEN THE BEST
CHANCES FOR DECOUPLING. ALSO DID KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
GRIDS FOR MAINLY SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY SPOTS. THIS
SURFACE HIGH DOES BEGIN TO SKIRT EAST AND WE BEGIN TO GET IN THE
RETURN FLOW SIDE BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A
WEAK/FLATTENED OUT RIDGE ALOFT THAT WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. THESE WILL ALL COMBINE WITH DECENT
MIXING OF WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIP OBTAINED OUT OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THE OVERALL DRIER
DAY RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY WHERE RH VALUES RUN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND WINDS GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
WE THEN TURN OUR FOCUS TO THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. MODELS DO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM STILL...BUT SEEM TO HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE WITH THE 00Z GFS
WHICH IS NEARLY 24 HOURS FASTER NOW...AND THIS IS RELATED TO THE
AMPLITUDE AND OPENNESS OF THE TROUGH IN THE LATEST RUNS. THIS
TREND BEGAN LAST NIGHT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND HAS CONTINUED IN THE
GUIDANCE SUITE TODAY. RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THE MODEL
BLEND AND THIS BRINGS THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK WITH LIKELY
POPS GIVEN THAT WE CONTINUE TO GAIN RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WHILE
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE BEST FORCING WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE REGION...AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW GETS PUSHED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. STILL THINK IT IS WORTH A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE T
GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6 TO
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THAT SAID EARLY STAGES BLENDED QPF LOOKS TO RANGE
IN THE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A INCH RANGE...WHICH SEEMS TO
MATCH UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CIPS ANALOGS UNDER THIS REGIME.
BEHIND THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
REGION...FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON TRENDS THINK
TEMPS COULD BE COOLER THAN BLEND ADVERTISES. THIS AS 850 TEMPS ARE
POISED TO DROP INTO THE -2 TO -5 C RANGE. THE COOL DOWN LOOKS
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT WILL PUSH EAST
FOLLOWING SUNRISE. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRAY
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO THREATEN THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT SME...FOR THIS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
340 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAKNESS RUNNING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. ALONG
THIS...NORTHWEST AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THIS WAY. CLOSER TO HOME...A FEW SPRINKLES OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER CLOUDS EAST OF JKL. ELSEWHERE...
THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP AND RETREATING EAST WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOUND TO THE WEST. THE CLEARING IS
HELPING TO DROP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF EXTRA DEGREES WITH UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE NORTHWEST OF JACKSON WHILE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S ARE NOTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ALSO VARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTH
AND FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH.
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WITH A SLEW OF ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY WILL
BRUSH THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND INTO MONDAY...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS SOME OF THE
MORE RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TO FOLLOW. GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COOL END TO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE WORST OF THE CHILL.
WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...A
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIP JUST EAST OF SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND LIKELY BRUSH THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. FOR
THIS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...BUT...DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATE WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW/TROUGH PASSING BY...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY HAVE ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WX GRIDS FOR
THIS. THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT BY EVENING AND SETS THE STAGE FOR
A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES A GOOD BET ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE WX GRIDS AND WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO AS OUR FROST FREEZE HEADLINE PROGRAM WILL
NOT START FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A SMALL
RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT SET UP AS THE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY...
DESPITE THE CHILLY START.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER. HAVE ADJUSTED
THESE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE SLIGHT TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE FOR TODAY...EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...POPS WERE
KEPT NEAR ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH MAYBE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS...THEREFORE LOWERED VALLEY TEMPS GIVEN THE BEST
CHANCES FOR DECOUPLING. ALSO DID KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
GRIDS FOR MAINLY SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY SPOTS. THIS
SURFACE HIGH DOES BEGIN TO SKIRT EAST AND WE BEGIN TO GET IN THE
RETURN FLOW SIDE BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A
WEAK/FLATTENED OUT RIDGE ALOFT THAT WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. THESE WILL ALL COMBINE WITH DECENT
MIXING OF WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIP OBTAINED OUT OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THE OVERALL DRIER
DAY RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY WHERE RH VALUES RUN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND WINDS GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
WE THEN TURN OUR FOCUS TO THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. MODELS DO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM STILL...BUT SEEM TO HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE WITH THE 00Z GFS
WHICH IS NEARLY 24 HOURS FASTER NOW...AND THIS IS RELATED TO THE
AMPLITUDE AND OPENNESS OF THE TROUGH IN THE LATEST RUNS. THIS
TREND BEGAN LAST NIGHT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND HAS CONTINUED IN THE
GUIDANCE SUITE TODAY. RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THE MODEL
BLEND AND THIS BRINGS THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK WITH LIKELY
POPS GIVEN THAT WE CONTINUE TO GAIN RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WHILE
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE BEST FORCING WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE REGION...AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW GETS PUSHED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. STILL THINK IT IS WORTH A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE T
GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6 TO
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THAT SAID EARLY STAGES BLENDED QPF LOOKS TO RANGE
IN THE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A INCH RANGE...WHICH SEEMS TO
MATCH UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CIPS ANALOGS UNDER THIS REGIME.
BEHIND THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
REGION...FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON TRENDS THINK
TEMPS COULD BE COOLER THAN BLEND ADVERTISES. THIS AS 850 TEMPS ARE
POISED TO DROP INTO THE -2 TO -5 C RANGE. THE COOL DOWN LOOKS
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IMPROVEMENT WILL
GENERALLY OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON FOLLOWING SUNRISE...WITH SJS
HANGING ONTO MVFR CONDITIONS THE LONGEST. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO THREATEN THE I-75
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT
SME...FOR THIS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
313 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAKNESS RUNNING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. ALONG
THIS...NORTHWEST AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THIS WAY. CLOSER TO HOME...A FEW SPRINKLES OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER CLOUDS EAST OF JKL. ELSEWHERE...
THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP AND RETREATING EAST WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOUND TO THE WEST. THE CLEARING IS
HELPING TO DROP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF EXTRA DEGREES WITH UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE NORTHWEST OF JACKSON WHILE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S ARE NOTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ALSO VARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTH
AND FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH.
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WITH A SLEW OF ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY WILL
BRUSH THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND INTO MONDAY...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS SOME OF THE
MORE RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TO FOLLOW. GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COOL END TO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE WORST OF THE CHILL.
WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...A
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIP JUST EAST OF SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND LIKELY BRUSH THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. FOR
THIS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...BUT...DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATE WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW/TROUGH PASSING BY...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY HAVE ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WX GRIDS FOR
THIS. THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT BY EVENING AND SETS THE STAGE FOR
A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES A GOOD BET ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE WX GRIDS AND WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO AS OUR FROST FREEZE HEADLINE PROGRAM WILL
NOT START FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A SMALL
RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT SET UP AS THE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY...
DESPITE THE CHILLY START.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER. HAVE ADJUSTED
THESE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE SLIGHT TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE FOR TODAY...EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...POPS WERE
KEPT NEAR ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL GIVE WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY DEAMPLIFY/FLATTEN AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...IN THE WYOMING/MONTANA/DAKOTAS REGION...WHILE
THE GFS HAS IT PEGGED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. THIS
DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. FROM HERE THE GFS HAS THE LOW LOSING STRENGTH AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE INCREASING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM OUR SOUTH WILL BE THE RECIPE FOR DRY WEATHER
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY STAY
IN THE UPPER 40S...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO THE LOW 60S ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 BY WEDNESDAY UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE BY LATE
WEEK...WITH WPC PLANTING THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST AND NORTH OF KY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PULLING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THIS WILL WORK TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS BRING IN
SOME PRECIP CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER...BUT KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THEY ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE.
COULDN/T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS WELL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS AS WE START TO TAP INTO
SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
OR STRONG...JUST POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS MIXING DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IMPROVEMENT WILL
GENERALLY OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON FOLLOWING SUNRISE...WITH SJS
HANGING ONTO MVFR CONDITIONS THE LONGEST. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO THREATEN THE I-75
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT
SME...FOR THIS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
135 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO ADDRESS THE
SPRINKLES FALLING FROM THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE
CLEARING MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH HIGHER CIGS
SOUTHWEST. ALSO ADDED IN THE LATEST T AND TD GUIDANCE FROM THE
SHORTBLEND...NUDGING THESE BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLEARING EXPANDING
AND WORKING SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS
SUCH...HAVE LOWERED SKY COVER...WITH THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE BETTER CLEARING POTENTIAL NEAR THE
BLUEGRASS. A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND THE HRRR ATTEMPTS TO CAPTURE SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EXPANDED WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE.
HAVE INCLUDED A POCKET OF SPRINKLES SLOWLY WORKING SOUTH AND
FADING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE HRRR HINTS AT. LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET...ALTHOUGH DID EXPAND THE UPPER
20S A BIT FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN THE DECENT CLEARING TRENDS. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REIGN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOME
CLEARING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND SOME OF THIS THINNING MAY
WORK IN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOWS ALONE FOR NOW...HOWEVER READINGS ARE RUNNING A BIT
WARMER THAN FORECAST SO WILL TOUCH THESE UP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND THEN BLEND BACK INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST. WILL WAIT A
COUPLE MORE HOURS AND SEE IF ANY OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDS A BIT MILDER BEFORE ADJUSTING THE LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAD LED
TO A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY JUST TO
OUR NORTH...BUT THIS HAS DISSIPATED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
IOWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE BY
TOMORROW. MOISTURE AND LIFT AND MAY SCRAPE OUR FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THUS...WILL CARRY A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER WET WEATHER TO SPEAK OF IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TO OUR EAST...COLD ADVECTION WILL DRAG
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SKIES LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT MORE BREAKS WILL BE
SEEN BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SKIES START TO CLEAR OFF.
THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FROST. COOP GUIDANCE HAS AREAS REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 20S IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...AND CERTAINLY CANNOT
DISCOUNT THIS POSSIBILITY. THUS...WILL PUT A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT IN THERE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGES STAYING IN THE UPPER
20S. REGARDLESS...THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTEREST OR OUTDOOR
PLANTS WILL WANT TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT ANY EARLY PLANTS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL GIVE WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY DEAMPLIFY/FLATTEN AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...IN THE WYOMING/MONTANA/DAKOTAS REGION...WHILE
THE GFS HAS IT PEGGED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. THIS
DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. FROM HERE THE GFS HAS THE LOW LOSING STRENGTH AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE INCREASING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM OUR SOUTH WILL BE THE RECIPE FOR DRY WEATHER
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY STAY
IN THE UPPER 40S...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO THE LOW 60S ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 BY WEDNESDAY UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE BY LATE
WEEK...WITH WPC PLANTING THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST AND NORTH OF KY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PULLING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THIS WILL WORK TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS BRING IN
SOME PRECIP CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER...BUT KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THEY ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE.
COULDN/T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS WELL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS AS WE START TO TAP INTO
SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
OR STRONG...JUST POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS MIXING DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IMPROVEMENT WILL
GENERALLY OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON FOLLOWING SUNRISE...WITH SJS
HANGING ONTO MVFR CONDITIONS THE LONGEST. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO THREATEN THE I-75
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT
SME...FOR THIS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
204 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK RDG AXIS
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN GENERAL TROFFING IN ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW OVER
THE E HALF OF CANADA AND CLOSED LO OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN
POLAR BRANCH FLOW DOMINATING THE CONUS...ALL DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY
STRONG UPR RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. THERE IS A SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING
ACRS THE UPR LKS. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON LOCAL 00Z RAOBS...
PWAT AS LO AS 0.11 INCH AT APX /ABOUT 40 PCT OF NORMAL/...SKIES ARE
MOCLR. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BLO NORMAL AND INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AT THE COLDER INTERIOR SPOTS WITH LGT WINDS. A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IN CANADA IS DIGGING THRU NW
ONTARIO...BUT THE SHARPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS
ON TRACK TO STAY N OF UPR MI. THE WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP...BUT UPSTREAM OBS
SHOW LTL IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER. THERE ARE MORE CLDS AND SOME SCT
SN SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NW IN ONTARIO/MANITOBA AHEAD OF A SECOND
COLD FNT MOVING INTO THAT AREA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON PCPN/LES CHCS TNGT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND COLD FNT NOW DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA/
NW ONTARIO.
TODAY...SHRTWV IN NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO THE SE...WITH
FIRST COLD FNT CROSSING THE CWA THIS MRNG. SINCE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP
LYR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE N OF UPR MI...THERE WL NO MSTR INFLOW
TO MOISTEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...AND THERE
WL BE LTL IF ANY LLVL CNVGC ALONG THE FIRST COLD FROPA...SUSPECT THE
BULK OF THE MODELS SHOWING A DRY DAY ARE ON TRACK. WL RETAIN SOME
SCHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE LAND CWA THIS AFTN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF SOME DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AS
H85 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -11C BY 00Z SUN DESPITE FCST ACYC NATURE OF
THE H925 NW FLOW.
TNGT...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SECOND COLD
FNT REACHING THE NRN CWA ARND 06Z...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ARND
-14C BY 12Z MON OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. BUT SINCE LARGE SCALE
QVECTOR DVGC WL DOMINATE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV...FCST
H85 TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR LES AND THE TRAILING AIRMASS WL BE ON THE
DRY SIDE WITH MARGINAL LLVL CNVGC FCST...EXPECT NO MORE THAN CHC
POPS FOR THE FROPA AND LES IN ITS WAKE. SINCE THE BULK OF THE
COOLING WL IMPACT AREAS E OF MQT...WL CARRY THE HIER CHC POPS IN
THAT AREA. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SN EVEN IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MQT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CROSSING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL USHER IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A ROUND
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MAINLY THE NNW TO WNW WIND SNOW BELTS IN THE
MORNING. WAA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BACKING WINDS WILL
WILL QUICKLY END THE LES BY LATE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT
FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DUSTING ALONG MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SLOPING
LAYER OF FGEN BELOW 600 HPA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4
INCHES...IS EXPECTED OVER A 4 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES
SUPPORT A VERY WET SNOWFALL THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WET BULB TEMPS CREEP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ON
TUESDAY...SO A MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY A SWITCH OVER TO RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NE
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...CHIEFLY DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE INITIAL SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE GFS REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM PRODUCE A WEAKER SOLUTION AS
THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOWS SIGNS OF TRYING TO CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW. GIVEN DRY EASTERLY FLOW FROM ONTARIO...PRECIP MAY FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE CWA IF THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS PAN OUT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...PLACING UPPER MI ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND IN A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN WITH A BOUT OF
MIXED PRECIP FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH N-NW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND IT. DRY AIR AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL ONLY BRING SITES TO
BORDERLINE MVFR TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS...SO LEFT PRECIP AS VCSH.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS TO VEER TO THE N TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PAIR OF LO PRES TROUGHS. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON MON...THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. AS A WAVE OF LO PRES RIDES ALONG A FRONT TO THE S OF UPPER
MI ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHILE HI PRES BUILDS INTO NW ONTARIO...
WINDS OVER LAKE SUP WILL BECOME ENE UP TO 25 KTS. NE WINDS UP TO 25
TO 30 KTS WILL THEN BE THE RULE FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU UNDER A
RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN PERSISTENT HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND
A LO PRES MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
723 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK RDG AXIS
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN GENERAL TROFFING IN ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW OVER
THE E HALF OF CANADA AND CLOSED LO OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN
POLAR BRANCH FLOW DOMINATING THE CONUS...ALL DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY
STRONG UPR RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. THERE IS A SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING
ACRS THE UPR LKS. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON LOCAL 00Z RAOBS...
PWAT AS LO AS 0.11 INCH AT APX /ABOUT 40 PCT OF NORMAL/...SKIES ARE
MOCLR. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BLO NORMAL AND INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AT THE COLDER INTERIOR SPOTS WITH LGT WINDS. A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IN CANADA IS DIGGING THRU NW
ONTARIO...BUT THE SHARPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS
ON TRACK TO STAY N OF UPR MI. THE WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP...BUT UPSTREAM OBS
SHOW LTL IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER. THERE ARE MORE CLDS AND SOME SCT
SN SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NW IN ONTARIO/MANITOBA AHEAD OF A SECOND
COLD FNT MOVING INTO THAT AREA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON PCPN/LES CHCS TNGT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND COLD FNT NOW DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA/
NW ONTARIO.
TODAY...SHRTWV IN NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO THE SE...WITH
FIRST COLD FNT CROSSING THE CWA THIS MRNG. SINCE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP
LYR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE N OF UPR MI...THERE WL NO MSTR INFLOW
TO MOISTEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...AND THERE
WL BE LTL IF ANY LLVL CNVGC ALONG THE FIRST COLD FROPA...SUSPECT THE
BULK OF THE MODELS SHOWING A DRY DAY ARE ON TRACK. WL RETAIN SOME
SCHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE LAND CWA THIS AFTN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF SOME DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AS
H85 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -11C BY 00Z SUN DESPITE FCST ACYC NATURE OF
THE H925 NW FLOW.
TNGT...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SECOND COLD
FNT REACHING THE NRN CWA ARND 06Z...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ARND
-14C BY 12Z MON OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. BUT SINCE LARGE SCALE
QVECTOR DVGC WL DOMINATE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV...FCST
H85 TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR LES AND THE TRAILING AIRMASS WL BE ON THE
DRY SIDE WITH MARGINAL LLVL CNVGC FCST...EXPECT NO MORE THAN CHC
POPS FOR THE FROPA AND LES IN ITS WAKE. SINCE THE BULK OF THE
COOLING WL IMPACT AREAS E OF MQT...WL CARRY THE HIER CHC POPS IN
THAT AREA. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SN EVEN IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MQT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CROSSING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL USHER IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A ROUND
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MAINLY THE NNW TO WNW WIND SNOW BELTS IN THE
MORNING. WAA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BACKING WINDS WILL
WILL QUICKLY END THE LES BY LATE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT
FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DUSTING ALONG MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SLOPING
LAYER OF FGEN BELOW 600 HPA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4
INCHES...IS EXPECTED OVER A 4 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES
SUPPORT A VERY WET SNOWFALL THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WET BULB TEMPS CREEP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ON
TUESDAY...SO A MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY A SWITCH OVER TO RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NE
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...CHIEFLY DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE INITIAL SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE GFS REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM PRODUCE A WEAKER SOLUTION AS
THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOWS SIGNS OF TRYING TO CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW. GIVEN DRY EASTERLY FLOW FROM ONTARIO...PRECIP MAY FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE CWA IF THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS PAN OUT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...PLACING UPPER MI ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND IN A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN WITH A BOUT OF
MIXED PRECIP FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE WNW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING WEAK COLD FNT
MIGHT CAUSE SOME MVFR CIGS AT CMX THIS MRNG...DRYNESS OF AIRMASS
DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB SUGGESTS VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO
THIS EVNG EVEN AS SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE CLDS DVLP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/INCRSG LLVL INSTABILITY. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR TNGT WL
LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS AND ALSO SOME -SHSN.
BUT RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE INCOMING CHILLY AIR SHOULD LIMIT PCPN
INTENSITY/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS TO VEER TO THE N TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PAIR OF LO PRES TROUGHS. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON MON...THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. AS A WAVE OF LO PRES RIDES ALONG A FRONT TO THE S OF UPPER
MI ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHILE HI PRES BUILDS INTO NW ONTARIO...
WINDS OVER LAKE SUP WILL BECOME ENE UP TO 25 KTS. NE WINDS UP TO 25
TO 30 KTS WILL THEN BE THE RULE FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU UNDER A
RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN PERSISTENT HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND
A LO PRES MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
402 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK RDG AXIS
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN GENERAL TROFFING IN ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW OVER
THE E HALF OF CANADA AND CLOSED LO OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN
POLAR BRANCH FLOW DOMINATING THE CONUS...ALL DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY
STRONG UPR RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. THERE IS A SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING
ACRS THE UPR LKS. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON LOCAL 00Z RAOBS...
PWAT AS LO AS 0.11 INCH AT APX /ABOUT 40 PCT OF NORMAL/...SKIES ARE
MOCLR. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BLO NORMAL AND INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AT THE COLDER INTERIOR SPOTS WITH LGT WINDS. A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IN CANADA IS DIGGING THRU NW
ONTARIO...BUT THE SHARPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS
ON TRACK TO STAY N OF UPR MI. THE WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP...BUT UPSTREAM OBS
SHOW LTL IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER. THERE ARE MORE CLDS AND SOME SCT
SN SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NW IN ONTARIO/MANITOBA AHEAD OF A SECOND
COLD FNT MOVING INTO THAT AREA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON PCPN/LES CHCS TNGT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND COLD FNT NOW DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA/
NW ONTARIO.
TODAY...SHRTWV IN NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO THE SE...WITH
FIRST COLD FNT CROSSING THE CWA THIS MRNG. SINCE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP
LYR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE N OF UPR MI...THERE WL NO MSTR INFLOW
TO MOISTEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...AND THERE
WL BE LTL IF ANY LLVL CNVGC ALONG THE FIRST COLD FROPA...SUSPECT THE
BULK OF THE MODELS SHOWING A DRY DAY ARE ON TRACK. WL RETAIN SOME
SCHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE LAND CWA THIS AFTN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF SOME DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AS
H85 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -11C BY 00Z SUN DESPITE FCST ACYC NATURE OF
THE H925 NW FLOW.
TNGT...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SECOND COLD
FNT REACHING THE NRN CWA ARND 06Z...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ARND
-14C BY 12Z MON OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. BUT SINCE LARGE SCALE
QVECTOR DVGC WL DOMINATE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV...FCST
H85 TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR LES AND THE TRAILING AIRMASS WL BE ON THE
DRY SIDE WITH MARGINAL LLVL CNVGC FCST...EXPECT NO MORE THAN CHC
POPS FOR THE FROPA AND LES IN ITS WAKE. SINCE THE BULK OF THE
COOLING WL IMPACT AREAS E OF MQT...WL CARRY THE HIER CHC POPS IN
THAT AREA. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SN EVEN IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MQT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CROSSING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL USHER IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A ROUND
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MAINLY THE NNW TO WNW WIND SNOW BELTS IN THE
MORNING. WAA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BACKING WINDS WILL
WILL QUICKLY END THE LES BY LATE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT
FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DUSTING ALONG MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SLOPING
LAYER OF FGEN BELOW 600 HPA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4
INCHES...IS EXPECTED OVER A 4 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES
SUPPORT A VERY WET SNOWFALL THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WET BULB TEMPS CREEP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ON
TUESDAY...SO A MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY A SWITCH OVER TO RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NE
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...CHIEFLY DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE INITIAL SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE GFS REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM PRODUCE A WEAKER SOLUTION AS
THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOWS SIGNS OF TRYING TO CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW. GIVEN DRY EASTERLY FLOW FROM ONTARIO...PRECIP MAY FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE CWA IF THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS PAN OUT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...PLACING UPPER MI ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND IN A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN WITH A BOUT OF
MIXED PRECIP FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ALLOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. A
WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO DROP BACK TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAFS SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS FROM
FALLING TOO LOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW FLURRIES/-SHSN AT EACH TAF
SITE BUT LIMITED MOISTURE GIVES LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS TO VEER TO THE N TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PAIR OF LO PRES TROUGHS. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON MON...THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. AS A WAVE OF LO PRES RIDES ALONG A FRONT TO THE S OF UPPER
MI ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHILE HI PRES BUILDS INTO NW ONTARIO...
WINDS OVER LAKE SUP WILL BECOME ENE UP TO 25 KTS. NE WINDS UP TO 25
TO 30 KTS WILL THEN BE THE RULE FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU UNDER A
RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN PERSISTENT HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND
A LO PRES MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
346 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A STRATUS DECK INTO MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO IN
ITS WAKE. THIS AFTERNOON...AREAS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER
THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI AS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OVER
PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE AND SRN DELTA COUNTIES AIDED BY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THIN AND CELLULAR LOOK TO
THESE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SUGGEST THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIDED ON COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE HIGH-RES CANADIAN WHICH HAD LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SPREAD WEAK LIFT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/FAR NORTH
CWA. AS WINDS SHIFT WNW BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW-LVL
MOISTURE INCREASES AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN TO -10C
TO -11C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO WRN
UPPER MI AND THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES/ISOLD SHSN AS 85H TEMPS
LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE
SHARPER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE LAKE INTO
ONTARIO EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FROPA ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CROSSING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL USHER IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A ROUND
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MAINLY THE NNW TO WNW WIND SNOW BELTS IN THE
MORNING. WAA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BACKING WINDS WILL
WILL QUICKLY END THE LES BY LATE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT
FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DUSTING ALONG MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SLOPING
LAYER OF FGEN BELOW 600 HPA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4
INCHES...IS EXPECTED OVER A 4 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES
SUPPORT A VERY WET SNOWFALL THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WET BULB TEMPS CREEP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ON
TUESDAY...SO A MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY A SWITCH OVER TO RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NE
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...CHIEFLY DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE INITIAL SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE GFS REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM PRODUCE A WEAKER SOLUTION AS
THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOWS SIGNS OF TRYING TO CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW. GIVEN DRY EASTERLY FLOW FROM ONTARIO...PRECIP MAY FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE CWA IF THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS PAN OUT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...PLACING UPPER MI ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND IN A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN WITH A BOUT OF
MIXED PRECIP FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ALLOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. A
WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO DROP BACK TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAFS SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS FROM
FALLING TOO LOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW FLURRIES/-SHSN AT EACH TAF
SITE BUT LIMITED MOISTURE GIVES LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR.
OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY MAINLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS UNTIL E-NE WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A STRATUS DECK INTO MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO IN
ITS WAKE. THIS AFTERNOON...AREAS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER
THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI AS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OVER
PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE AND SRN DELTA COUNTIES AIDED BY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THIN AND CELLULAR LOOK TO
THESE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SUGGEST THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIDED ON COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE HIGH-RES CANADIAN WHICH HAD LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SPREAD WEAK LIFT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/FAR NORTH
CWA. AS WINDS SHIFT WNW BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW-LVL
MOISTURE INCREASES AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN TO -10C
TO -11C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO WRN
UPPER MI AND THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES/ISOLD SHSN AS 85H TEMPS
LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE
SHARPER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE LAKE INTO
ONTARIO EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FROPA ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
HAVE AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES.
FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA SUN
EVENING INTO EARLY SUN NIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/EFFECT SNOW TO NW WIND SNOWBELTS. 850MB TEMPS ARE -10C
TO -12C AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THEN DROP TO -13C TO -15C LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS TURN WLY BY 00Z TUE. MOISTURE
IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...SO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MODELS
DEPICT 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS SUN
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS
DURING THE DAY MON. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S WHERE SNOW
FALLS AND HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 30 N TO THE UPPER 30S SCENTRAL.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AND
WILL MOVE ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS OR JUST S OF THE CWA
AT THE SFC. FGEN FORCING AND WAA ALONG THE SLOPED FRONT WILL ASSIST
IN PROVIDING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW BETWEEN 06Z AND 21Z TUE...MOST
AREAS WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW IN 3-6 HOURS. MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT
PLACEMENT OF SNOW DUE TO PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONT/FGEN/SHORTWAVE...DETAILS OF WHERE THE BEST SNOW FALL IS
UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z/19 GFS IS FARTHER N AND KEEPS THE WI BORDER AREAS
DRIEST (BUT STILL SEEING PRECIP) WHILE THE 00Z/19 ECMWF IS FARTHER S
AND KEEPS THE NRN TIER DRIEST. THE 12Z/19 NAM COMES IN BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF FOR PLACEMENT OF BEST PRECIP. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AND BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS POINT. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE THE GREATEST SNOW
FALLS...WHICH MAY BE DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND E...AND IF THAT FALLS IN 3-6 HOURS IT COULD BRIEFLY
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. SNOW LOOKS TO MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE
DAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE FAR SCENTRAL.
WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE WEEK...IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE WED NIGHT-FRI TIME FRAME (DEPENDING ON
MODEL). MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE THE BEST PRECIP (AROUND AN INCH OF QPF
WITH AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR MAKING SNOW THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE) ALONG OR
SE OF THE SERN BORDER OF THE CWA...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
TRENDING NW. A LOT OF VARIABLES AT PLAY FOR 5-6 DAYS OUT...SO WILL
JUST HAVE TO KEEP CLOSELY MONITORING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ALLOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. A
WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO DROP BACK TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAFS SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS FROM
FALLING TOO LOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW FLURRIES/-SHSN AT EACH TAF
SITE BUT LIMITED MOISTURE GIVES LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR.
OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY MAINLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS UNTIL E-NE WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
107 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
PCPN CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO MENTION DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TEMPS
WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW THAT DROPPED SEWD ACROSS IOWA SATURDAY
WAS OVER NERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO RECENT WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SNOW HAD
GENERALLY ENDED IN OUR AREA. WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME ISOLD FLURRIES THIS MORNING OR AN ISOLD SNOW SHOWER IN SWRN
IA THIS AFTN...BUT GENERALLY MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES TODAY SEEM
MINIMAL. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD EWD TODAY. NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER
15 MPH. THAT RIDGE WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH
WARMER DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST OR NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND MIXING
SHOULD NOT BE AS DEEP THERE. FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S NEAR THE SD BORDER AND UPPER 70S AT THE KS BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
THIS PERIOD IS MORE ACTIVE...WITH SEVERAL PCPN CHANCES. THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM WED INTO
THU MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NIGHT NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE
PROFILE INCREASE. 500 MB FLOW WILL BE DIFLUENT OVER OUR AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO CO. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS POINT TUE
NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT FCST SOUNDINGS. IN GENERAL... THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR WED. THE GFS IS
A BIT FASTER WITH THE 500 MB LOW AND HAS THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER
EAST BY 00Z THU. PATTERN SUGGEST SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE OVER
SERN NE AND SWRN IA WED...AND THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME ELEVATED
CAPE. BEYOND WED...WILL GIVE THE 00Z ECMWF THE MOST WEIGHT FOR
DETAILS OF THE FCST. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH BY LATE WED
AFTN FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NW 1/2 OF NERN NE. SNOW CHANCES
LOOK DECENT MOST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
PCPN SHOULD LINGER THU MORNING BUT END BY AFTN BASED ON CURRENT
MODEL TIMING. NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 21/18Z AT KOFK..KLNK...AND
KOMA. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR RETURN OF SOUTH SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WINO SHEAR IS FORECAST BETWEEN
11Z-17Z ACROSS KOFK...KLNK...AND KOMA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
PCPN CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO MENTION DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TEMPS
WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW THAT DROPPED SEWD ACROSS IOWA SATURDAY
WAS OVER NERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO RECENT WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SNOW HAD
GENERALLY ENDED IN OUR AREA. WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME ISOLD FLURRIES THIS MORNING OR AN ISOLD SNOW SHOWER IN SWRN
IA THIS AFTN...BUT GENERALLY MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES TODAY SEEM
MINIMAL. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD EWD TODAY. NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER
15 MPH. THAT RIDGE WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH
WARMER DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST OR NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND MIXING
SHOULD NOT BE AS DEEP THERE. FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S NEAR THE SD BORDER AND UPPER 70S AT THE KS BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
THIS PERIOD IS MORE ACTIVE...WITH SEVERAL PCPN CHANCES. THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM WED INTO
THU MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NIGHT NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE
PROFILE INCREASE. 500 MB FLOW WILL BE DIFLUENT OVER OUR AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO CO. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS POINT TUE
NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT FCST SOUNDINGS. IN GENERAL... THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR WED. THE GFS IS
A BIT FASTER WITH THE 500 MB LOW AND HAS THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER
EAST BY 00Z THU. PATTERN SUGGEST SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE OVER
SERN NE AND SWRN IA WED...AND THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME ELEVATED
CAPE. BEYOND WED...WILL GIVE THE 00Z ECMWF THE MOST WEIGHT FOR
DETAILS OF THE FCST. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH BY LATE WED
AFTN FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NW 1/2 OF NERN NE. SNOW CHANCES
LOOK DECENT MOST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
PCPN SHOULD LINGER THU MORNING BUT END BY AFTN BASED ON CURRENT
MODEL TIMING. NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS A WEAK AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. LIGHT NORTHWEST SFC
WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
PCPN CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO MENTION DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TEMPS
WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW THAT DROPPED SEWD ACROSS IOWA SATURDAY
WAS OVER NERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO RECENT WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SNOW HAD
GENERALLY ENDED IN OUR AREA. WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME ISOLD FLURRIES THIS MORNING OR AN ISOLD SNOW SHOWER IN SWRN
IA THIS AFTN...BUT GENERALLY MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES TODAY SEEM
MINIMAL. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD EWD TODAY. NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER
15 MPH. THAT RIDGE WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH
WARMER DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST OR NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND MIXING
SHOULD NOT BE AS DEEP THERE. FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S NEAR THE SD BORDER AND UPPER 70S AT THE KS BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
THIS PERIOD IS MORE ACTIVE...WITH SEVERAL PCPN CHANCES. THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM WED INTO
THU MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NIGHT NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE
PROFILE INCREASE. 500 MB FLOW WILL BE DIFLUENT OVER OUR AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO CO. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS POINT TUE
NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT FCST SOUNDINGS. IN GENERAL... THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR WED. THE GFS IS
A BIT FASTER WITH THE 500 MB LOW AND HAS THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER
EAST BY 00Z THU. PATTERN SUGGEST SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE OVER
SERN NE AND SWRN IA WED...AND THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME ELEVATED
CAPE. BEYOND WED...WILL GIVE THE 00Z ECMWF THE MOST WEIGHT FOR
DETAILS OF THE FCST. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH BY LATE WED
AFTN FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NW 1/2 OF NERN NE. SNOW CHANCES
LOOK DECENT MOST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
PCPN SHOULD LINGER THU MORNING BUT END BY AFTN BASED ON CURRENT
MODEL TIMING. NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
KOMA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
429 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
WELL AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WHILE DOMINATING THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...LOW PRES EAST OF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE W. A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO NW. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW
TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN OBX EARLY. THE LOW STRATUS WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG CAA WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND
25 MPH INLAND AND UP TO 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. PATCHY FROST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE SW...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGH THU. MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AREAS OF PATCHY FROST WILL
BE LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...SW
FLOW...AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WED...AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR THU. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
40S/LOW 50S WED MORNING WARMING INTO THE 50S/LOW 60S. BREEZY S/SW
WINDS DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
MODELS DIFFERENCES CONTINUE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THEN POSSIBLE AREAS OF PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE SE COAST...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW EVEN SLOWER NOT MOVING THE
FRONT THROUGH UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND TOWARDS WPC AND ECMWF...DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI/FRI EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...CAPPING AT 40 PERCENT RIGHT NOW...GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE SC THUNDER
MENTION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
POSSIBLE IF SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE VERIFIES.
ECMWF KEEPS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO THE NORTH LATE SAT
AND SUN...WHILE THE GFS IS DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT...MOVING IT UP THE
SE COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...AND
WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POP SAT INTO SUN. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...IN THE 60S...FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW LEVEL NE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUN...LOW PRES OFFSHORE BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW AND A
STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
RTES WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS PRED IFR
ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT MAINLY IFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE SUCH AS NARRE, HRRR AND SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS
COULD LIFT SLIGHTLY TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH
MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS IFR/LIFR. IF CIGS DO LIFT THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 1500FT. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MON
MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT MVFR BETWEEN 10-12Z WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND VFR RETURNING AROUND 14-16Z. GUSTY NWLY WINDS AROUND
20-25 KT COULD BRING CROSS WIND ISSUES AT EWN RUNWAY 4R/22L.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. GUSTY S/SW WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON WED THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
TERMINALS FRI...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. BRIEF PATCHY/FOG STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
THROUGH THU WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...N WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY, BECOMING NW AROUND 10-20 KT THIS EVENING.
WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK TO 15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHICH CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 6-8 FT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS 2-4 FT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUN...GUSTY NW WINDS 15-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT WILL
START OFF THE PERIOD MON NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD. HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE TUE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ANCHORED
OFF THE SE COAST THROUGH THU...WITH S/SW FLOW RETURNING. GUSTY SW
WINDS 15-25KT ARE LIKELY TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...STRONGEST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH BETTER MIXING OVER THE WARM WATER AND
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS HAVE SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-6FT TUE NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL
WATERS WITH PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. GUSTY SW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMING N/NE BEHIND IT.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH
THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT
THROUGH THE WATERS FRI MORNING...AND THE ECMWF NOT UNTIL LATE FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND BEHIND IT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-
158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...SK/CQD
MARINE...SK/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
222 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WHILE DOMINATING THE
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 2PM SUNDAY...LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. BAND OF
SHRA LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD TO MAINLY THE
OBX SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFFSHORE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SOME SPOTTY
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
MAXING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM SUN...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE CST. THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT MOISTURE
IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. CONT CAA ON BACKSIDE
OF LOW WILL KEEP TEMPS COLD WITH LOWS 35 TO 40 INLAND AND 40 TO 45
CST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE GULF COAST REGION EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PIVOT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT USHERING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
PATTERN...EXPECT FAIRLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT IS COMING INTO BETTER FOCUS AS THE MODELS ARE ILLUSTRATING A
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROPA. WHILE THE TIMING WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THE DYNAMICS SEEM TO BE WANING BY THIS
POINT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEBRIS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...INHIBITING INSULATION. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
THE SCHC THUNDER IN FOR NOW. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY
LATE AFTERNOON. AND AT THIS POINT THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE. THE
GFS HAS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY DRAPED OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE GULF COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
RIDING THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY NORTH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO
THE NORTH NOSING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE A MESSY WEEKEND AHEAD. WHILE IN CONTRAST...THE EURO
ILLUSTRATING THE FRONT CLEARING THE AREA AND MOVING WELL OFFSHORE
WITH LOW PRESSURE NOT APPROACHING EASTERN NC BY UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN SUCH MODEL TIMING DISCREPANCIES...HAVE A BLANKETED
SCHC POP ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS HARD TO SAY WHICH MODEL SOLUTION
LOOKS MORE LIKELY...EVEN WHEN DISSECTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. BUT
WITH SUCH QUICK LOW DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN IN THE GFS...SIDING WITH
THE EURO SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER BET AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO MONDAY (MID 50S) AND SLIGHT
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK (UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY) AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A FRONT. LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN WARM TEMPS AS OF LATE AND THUS
EARLY BLOOMING SEASON...HAVE A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY AND CROSSES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THIS MAY MAKE FOR A NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE TYPE OF DAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS A BIT FAR OUT TO TIME THE CAA AT THIS POINT...SO
HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TRENDING PURPOSES (LOW
70S). THE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE WEATHER PATTERN. AS WE LEARN MORE TOWARD THE
EURO SOLUTION...EXPECT COOLER HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SUN...LOW PRES OFFSHORE BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW AND A
STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
RTES WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS PRED IFR
ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT MAINLY IFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE SUCH AS NARRE, HRRR AND SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CIGS COULD LIFT SLIGHTLY TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALTHOUGH MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS IFR/LIFR. IF CIGS DO LIFT THEY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1500FT. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND MON MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT MVFR BETWEEN 10-12Z
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VFR RETURNING AROUND 14-16Z. GUSTY NWLY
WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT COULD BRING CROSS WIND ISSUES AT EWN RUNWAY
4R/22L.
LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL. ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO SATURATE A BIT MORE THURSDAY
UNDER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THUS...POSSIBLY FOG OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THROUGH THE
DAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND A FRONT TO THE WEST...WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
COULD BECOME FAIRLY GUSTY BOTH WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SUN...WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO DIMINISH SOME
ACROSS THE SOUNDS BUT WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT.
SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 6-9 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 2-5 FT SOUTH.
N WINDS WILL CONT AT MAINLY 15 TO 20 KTS THIS EVENING THEN AS
SHRT WAVE REACHES CLOSE LATE EXPECT SURGE OF NW WINDS TO DEVELOP
WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 25 KTS LATE. SEAS WILL STAY ELEVATED OVER CNTRL
AND ESPCLY NRN WTRS THRU TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE.
OVER SRN WTRS COULD GET CLOSER TO 6 FT FAR OUTER WTRS TOWARD MON
MORN AS NW WINDS INCREASE.
LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SUBSIDING.
WINDS 20-25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY NIGHT...SO TOO WILL THE WINDS AS THEY
FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THE SEAS WILL ALSO RESPOND BY DIMINISHING
BELOW 6 FT BY EARLY TUESDAY. PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL BUILD...BUT HAVE CAPPED IT TO 3 TO 5 FEET
ACROSS THE WATERS...6 FOOTERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS POSSIBLY BY
LATER THURSDAY AS WINDS GUSTY ABOVE 20KTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
131-135-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/SK
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...RF/LEP
MARINE...RF/SK/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1000 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
CURRENT RADAR AND GROUND TRUTH DATA SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY
BENSON...TOWNER AND RAMSEY COUNTIES. THIS CURRENT BAND LINES UP
FAIRLY WELL (ALTHOUGH SPATIALLY JUST NORTH OF) A BAND OF MID LEVEL
FG FORCING DEPICTED ON THE 00Z NAM. NAM INTENSIFIES THIS BAND
AROUND 03Z HOWEVER BY 06Z IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS INTO RAMSEY AND
NELSON COUNTIES...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT MID
LEVEL FLOW. HRRR QPF STRUGGLES TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP GOING
IN NORTHEAST ND...AND ALTHOUGH THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM
FORCING...IT SEEMS OVERLY DRY AS SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND AND ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2. WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND QPFS...ADDING CATEGORICALS THROUGH 06Z
NORTH OF THE DEVILS LAKER BASIN. EXPECTING A HIGH POP BUT MUCH
LOWER QPF SCENARIO IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MINNESOTA. HAVE
INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO AROUND 4 INCHES OF SOUTHERN TOWNER AND
NW RAMSEY. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
SWITCHED RADAR TO VCP 31...RESULTING IN BETTER COVERAGE OF LOWER
CLOUDS BY EVEN IN HIGHEST RETURNS VCNTY DVL...WE ARE NOT GETTING
ANY GROUND TRUTH. MAKES SENSE DUE TO THE DRIER AIR WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG TO DELAY
THINGS...AND WILL START OFF 00Z DRY THEN TREND TOWARD CHANCE POPS
BY 02Z. BEST FG FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND WEST...SO MAY HAVE TO
DELAY LIKELIES TO THE 04Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN
THE NORTH. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS A BIT FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS.
FOR TONIGHT...SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH NEAR A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE BEST FGEN/ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 TONIGHT...AND THE BEST THREAT FOR 1-3 INCHES
SHOULD OCCUR IN THE FAR NW FA INTO NW MN. GFK WILL BE ON THE
DIVIDING LINE TO SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION AND NOT MUCH AT ALL. THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE SNOW COVERED AND SLICK FOR THE
NORTHERN AREAS...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE WEATHER STORY. THE
PRECIP MAY START OUT AS SOME RAIN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY GO OVER TO
SNOW PER SOUNDINGS/WET BULB COOLING.
ON TUESDAY...THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE EAST WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS IN THE MORNING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN COULD MIX IN ONCE TEMPS RISE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
FOR TUE NIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
ON WED...IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
THE LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH...WITH GENERAL
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR OUR REGION.
FOR THU...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HINGE ON IF WE ARE
CLEAR OR NOT...SO WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND NOT GO
TOO COLD THU MORNING.
FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN PRETTY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXTENDED. ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND APPEARS
CONFINED TO FRIDAY..FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING A RAIN OR SNOW MIX. THEREAFTER NW FLOW AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND COOL WEEKEND WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR SATURDAY AND A BIT WARMER ON EASTER SUNDAY
WITH 40S IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. WARMER AIR WITH 500MB RIDGING WORKS
INTO THE AREA TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH MONDAYS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...LOW 50S FOR SE ND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
CIGS AT SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2 WILL BECOME MVFR TONIGHT AS
A BAND OF SNOW MOVES ACROSS REGION. WILL DELAY ONSET OF LIGHT SN
AT MN SITES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS (FROM 18Z TAFS)...AND SPEED
THINGS UP A BIT FOR DVL. HAVE BEEN MONITORING WEBCAMS AROUND DVL
AND NOW FLAKES YET DESPITE SOME BRIGHTER RETURNS ON RADAR...BUT
EXPECT SOME RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW BY MID EVENING. SN SHOULD
MISS FAR BUT DO EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME MVFR TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
1035 AM PDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.SHORT TERM...A FRONT IS MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. EXPECT RAIN OVER MOST THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH TODAY AROUND 7000 FEET LOWERING TO 5500 TO 6500 FT THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY, IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA, AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST NAM
AND HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS, HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH TO INCLUDE EASTERN
DOUGLAS, JACKSON, PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES AND FROM CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BASED
ON WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TODAY ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, THIS EVENING EXPECT DECREASING SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AROUND 4-4500 FT WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 4500-5000 FT EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
SPREADING INTO COAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY
WEATHER. ADDITIONAL GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS ON MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND 4500 TO 5500 FEET MONDAY AND EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE HIGHER PASSES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION INLAND TODAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
BEING OBSERVED NOW...BUT OCCASIONAL LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VIS TO THE COAST THIS MORNING. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR
TURBULENCE ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY AT
THE COAST...EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER HIGH TERRAIN.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS AND WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY THIS
EVENING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOWERING
CEILINGS TO THE COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN INLAND...WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SK
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 315 AM PDT SUN 20 MAR 2016...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BRING GALES AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF GALES WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY A WEST SWELL AND REACH A PEAK ON
MONDAY NIGHT THEN REMAIN HIGH INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WITH MODERATE SEAS WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS BECOMING HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH SEAS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH INTO
SATURDAY. -DW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM PDT SUN MAR 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE COAST THIS MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND INTO
THE ROGUE VALLEY MID MORNING. MODELS INDICATE WINDS AT 925 MB
TURNS SW INTO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP INCREASE
COASTAL WINDS. AREAS NEAR CAPE BLANCO COULD SEE WIND GUST TO NEAR
50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE SHASTA VALLEY AND PARTS OF
THE EAST SIDE WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS. HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT
SUITE OF WIND ADVISORIES GOING.
ASIDE FROM MT SHASTA AND SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY..PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AROUND 4-4500 FT WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 4500-5000 FT EAST. THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY.
THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO MOUNTAIN SNOW AS
THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET IN THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS. WE ARE CURRENT FORECASTING AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW
AT CRATER LAKE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW
ON MOUNT SHASTA ABOVE 6500 FEET. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FEET. ANOTHER 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
CC/CC/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
836 AM PDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...A FRONT IS MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. EXPECT RAIN OVER MOST THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH TODAY AROUND 7000 FEET LOWERING TO 5500 TO 6500 FT THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY, IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA, AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST NAM
AND HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS, HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH TO INCLUDE EASTERN
DOUGLAS, JACKSON, PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES AND FROM CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BASED
ON WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TODAY ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, THIS EVENING EXPECT DECREASING SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AROUND 4-4500 FT WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 4500-5000 FT EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
SPREADING INTO COAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY
WEATHER. ADDITIONAL GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS ON MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND 4500 TO 5500 FEET MONDAY AND EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE HIGHER PASSES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VIS TO THE COAST THIS MORNING. INLAND, RAIN
WILL ALSO MOVE IN TODAY, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY VFR UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS AND
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOWERING CEILINGS TO THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT THEN INLAND ON MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 315 AM PDT SUN 20 MAR 2016...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BRING GALES AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF GALES WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY A WEST SWELL AND REACH A PEAK ON
MONDAY NIGHT THEN REMAIN HIGH INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WITH MODERATE SEAS WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS BECOMING HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH SEAS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH INTO
SATURDAY. -DW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM PDT SUN MAR 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE COAST THIS MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND INTO
THE ROGUE VALLEY MID MORNING. MODELS INDICATE WINDS AT 925 MB
TURNS SW INTO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP INCREASE
COASTAL WINDS. AREAS NEAR CAPE BLANCO COULD SEE WIND GUST TO NEAR
50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE SHASTA VALLEY AND PARTS OF
THE EAST SIDE WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS. HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT
SUITE OF WIND ADVISORIES GOING.
ASIDE FROM MT SHASTA AND SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY..PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AROUND 4-4500 FT WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 4500-5000 FT EAST. THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY.
THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO MOUNTAIN SNOW AS
THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET IN THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS. WE ARE CURRENT FORECASTING AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW
AT CRATER LAKE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW
ON MOUNT SHASTA ABOVE 6500 FEET. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FEET. ANOTHER 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
CC/CC/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
630 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE 500 HPA TROUGH AND POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO
OUR EAST MONDAY AS THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE
UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. MOST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW MOVING OVER THE REGION...ALOFT. WE
HAVE SEEN SEVERAL SURGES OF LIGHT SNOW GO UP THE VALLEY LOCALLY
AND LOTS OF VIRGA STRIATIONS.
TRIED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 IN
SOUTHEAST. HARD TO DO WITH OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA IN A GRID.
SOME BAD DATA POINTS ABOUND. SUFFICE TO SAY WILL BE AN ABNORMALLY
COLD DAY AND EARLY EVENING.
FEWER CLOUDS AND LOWER CHANCE FLURRIES IN NORTH AND BEST CHANCE OF
A DUSTING TO SLIGHT ACCUMULATION IS IN SW MOUNTAINS.
THE SNOW WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MOST GUIDANCE IMPLIES BEST CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IS EARLY
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE TWO WETTEST 3H PERIODS IN
THE SREF ARE 21 TO 00 THIS EVENING AND 00 TO 03 UTC. SO BY
MIDNIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DROPS FAST. AFTER 12Z ABOUT 10 PERCENT OF
SREF MEMBERS SHOW ANY CHANCE OF QPF IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST PA.
THE HRRR STILL WANTS TO MAKE BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IN SW MOUNTAINS
IN THE 00 TO 06 UTC TIME FRAME. SO USED LARGER SCALE MODEL BLEND
FOR POPS AND TEMPERED IT BY BLENDING IN THE 3KM HRRR TO SHOW SNOW
POTENTIAL IN SW MOUNTAINS. PUT THIS IN KJST TAF (SEE
AVIATION BELOW). NOTHING OF NOTE UNLESS YOU LIKE SNOWFLAKES.
SO...EARLY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN SW MOUNTAINS AND ALONG MD
BORDER. AND RAIN/SNOW IN SE WILL TURN TO WET SNOW AROUND/AFTER
SUNSET. DEW POINTS ARE LOW SO ANY MIXED SHOULD GO TO SNOW FAST IF
IT CONTINUES. AFTER SUNSET COLD WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM.
THE 500 HPA WAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST EARLY MONDAY...MONDAY SHOULD BE
A SUNNIER DAY BUT STILL ON THE COLD SIDE. THE 850 HPA TEMPS SHOW
COLD ADVECTION EARLY MONDAY AND THEY BOTTOM OUT -8 TO -10C LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SO A CHILLY DAY FOR LATE FOR
FIRST FULL DAY OF SPRING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS IN RECENT CASES...A STRONG SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DID CUT BACK SOME ON THE SHOWERS FOR WED INTO EARLY THU. WHILE
A COLD FRONT COULD SAG SOUTHWARD INTO N PA...AND THERE IS AN
INTENSE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 850 MB JUST TO THE NORTH OF
PA...THINK SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
LIMITED ON WED INTO EARLY THU.
LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT STILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI.
CENTRAL PA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE COLD AIR FOR THE EASTER
WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW BANDS ARE STREAMING THROUGH CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT LITTLE TO NO RESTRICTIONS. MOST AREAS ARE VFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.
SOME SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COULD LOWER VSBY TO MVFR IN
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. BUT VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS FROM
KUNV SOUTH TOWARD KLNS WHERE SNOW BANDS COULD LINGER THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER 06Z...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO OUR EAST AND CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE. WINDS COME AROUND TO MORE
WESTERLY ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR EXCEPT AM SNOW SHOWERS ISOLD MVFR MAINLY SW MOUNTAINS.
TUE-WED...VFR.
THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH
AND WEST.
FRI...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GRUMM/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE 500 HPA TROUGH AND POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO
OUR EAST MONDAY AS THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE
UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. MOST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW MOVING OVER THE REGION...ALOFT. WE
HAVE SEEN SEVERAL SURGES OF LIGHT SNOW GO UP THE VALLEY LOCALLY
AND LOTS OF VIRGA STRIATIONS.
TRIED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 IN
SOUTHEAST. HARD TO DO WITH OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA IN A GRID.
SOME BAD DATA POINTS ABOUND. SUFFICE TO SAY WILL BE AN ABNORMALLY
COLD DAY AND EARLY EVENING.
FEWER CLOUDS AND LOWER CHANCE FLURRIES IN NORTH AND BEST CHANCE OF
A DUSTING TO SLIGHT ACCUMULATION IS IN SW MOUNTAINS.
THE SNOW WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MOST GUIDANCE IMPLIES BEST CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IS EARLY
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE TWO WETTEST 3H PERIODS IN
THE SREF ARE 21 TO 00 THIS EVENING AND 00 TO 03 UTC. SO BY
MIDNIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DROPS FAST. AFTER 12Z ABOUT 10 PERCENT OF
SREF MEMBERS SHOW ANY CHANCE OF QPF IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST PA.
THE HRRR STILL WANTS TO MAKE BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IN SW MOUNTAINS
IN THE 00 TO 06 UTC TIME FRAME. SO USED LARGER SCALE MODEL BLEND
FOR POPS AND TESTURED IT BY BLENDING IN THE 3KM HRRR TO SHOW SNOW
POTENTIAL IN SW MOUNTAINS. PUT THIS IN KJST TAF (SEE AVIATIONBELOW).
NOTHING OF NOTE UNLESS YOU LIKE SNOWFLAKES.
SO...EARLY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN SW MOUNTAINS AND ALONG MD
BORDER. AND RAIN/SNOW IN SE WILL TURN TO WET SNOW AROUND/AFTER
SUNSET. DEW POINTS ARE LOW SO ANY MIXED SHOULD GO TO SNOW FAST IF
IT CONTINUES. AFTER SUNSET COLD WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM.
THE 500 HPA WAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST EARLY MONDAY...MONDAY SHOULD BE
A SUNNIER DAY BUT STILL ON THE COLD SIDE. THE 850 HPA TEMPS SHOW
COLD ADVECTION EARLY MONDAY AND THEY BOTTOM OUT -8 TO -10C LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SO A CHILLY DAY FOR LATE FOR
FIRST FULL DAY OF SPRING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS IN RECENT CASES...A STRONG SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DID CUT BACK SOME ON THE SHOWERS FOR WED INTO EARLY THU. WHILE
A COLD FRONT COULD SAG SOUTHWARD INTO N PA...AND THERE IS AN
INTENSE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 850 MB JUST TO THE NORTH OF
PA...THINK SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
LIMITED ON WED INTO EARLY THU.
LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT STILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI.
CENTRAL PA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE COLD AIR FOR THE EASTER
WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUE MOVE THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE SNOW IS OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE DESPITE THE APPEARANCE OF RADAR. MOST AREAS ARE VFR
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.
SOME SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COULD LOWER VSBY TO MVFR IN
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. BUT VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS FROM
KUNV SOUTH TOWARD KLNS WHERE MODELS HINTED IT COULD SNOW BRIEFLY.
OVERNIGHT AS LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
EVERYWHERE. WINDS COME AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR EXCEPT AM SNOW SHOWERS ISOLD MVFR MAINLY SW MOUNTAINS.
TUE-WED...VFR.
THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH
AND WEST.
FRI...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GRUMM/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
203 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE 500 HPA TROUGH AND POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO
OUR EAST MONDAY AS THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE
UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. MOST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW MOVING OVER THE REGION...ALOFT. WE
HAVE SEEN SEVERAL SURGES OF LIGHT SNOW GO UP THE VALLEY LOCALLY
AND LOTS OF VIRGA STRIATIONS.
TRIED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 IN
SOUTHEAST. HARD TO DO WITH OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA IN A GRID.
SOME BAD DATA POINTS ABOUND. SUFFICE TO SAY WILL BE AN ABNORMALLY
COLD DAY AND EARLY EVENING.
FEWER CLOUDS AND LOWER CHANCE FLURRIES IN NORTH AND BEST CHANCE OF
A DUSTING TO SLIGHT ACCUMULATION IS IN SW MOUNTAINS.
THE SNOW WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MOST GUIDANCE IMPLIES BEST CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IS EARLY
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE TWO WETTEST 3H PERIODS IN
THE SREF ARE 21 TO 00 THIS EVENING AND 00 TO 03 UTC. SO BY
MIDNIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DROPS FAST. AFTER 12Z ABOUT 10 PERCENT OF
SREF MEMBERS SHOW ANY CHANCE OF QPF IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST PA.
THE HRRR STILL WANTS TO MAKE BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IN SW MOUNTAINS
IN THE 00 TO 06 UTC TIME FRAME. SO USED LARGER SCALE MODEL BLEND
FOR POPS AND TESTURED IT BY BLENDING IN THE 3KM HRRR TO SHOW SNOW
POTENTIAL IN SW MOUNTAINS. PUT THIS IN KJST TAF (SEE AVIATIONBELOW).
NOTHING OF NOTE UNLESS YOU LIKE SNOWFLAKES.
SO...EARLY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN SW MOUNTAINS AND ALONG MD
BORDER. AND RAIN/SNOW IN SE WILL TURN TO WET SNOW AROUND/AFTER
SUNSET. DEW POINTS ARE LOW SO ANY MIXED SHOULD GO TO SNOW FAST IF
IT CONTINUES. AFTER SUNSET COLD WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM.
THE 500 HPA WAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST EARLY MONDAY...MONDAY SHOULD BE
A SUNNIER DAY BUT STILL ON THE COLD SIDE. THE 850 HPA TEMPS SHOW
COLD ADVECTION EARLY MONDAY AND THEY BOTTOM OUT -8 TO -10C LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SO A CHILLY DAY FOR LATE FOR
FIRST FULL DAY OF SPRING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RISING HEIGHTS AND A SW TO WEST FLOW OF MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WORK
INTO THE AREA AFTER MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PLACEMENT OF
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF W ATLANTIC RIDGE.
00Z ECENS/NAEFS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF PA WED-THU
WITH THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE N TIER COUNTIES. BEST CHC
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS LIKELY TO COME FRIDAY...AS
E COAST RIDGE WEAKENS AND SIG SHORTWAVE WORKS EAST THRU THE GRT
LKS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS OF THE STATE AND AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE
MOVE THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE SNOW IS OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
DESPITE THE APPEARANCE OF RADAR. MOST AREAS ARE VFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.
SOME SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COULD LOWER VSBY TO MVFR IN
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. BUT VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS FROM
KUNV SOUTH TOWARD KLNS WHERE MODELS HINTED IT COULD SNOW BRIEFLY.
OVERNIGHT AS LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
EVERYWHERE. WINDS COME AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR EXCEPT AM SNOW SHOWERS ISOLD MVFR MAINLY SW MOUNTAINS.
TUE- WED...VFR. THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
815 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL PA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE ASSOC COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL EAST OF
PA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...GIVING WAY TO
A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE E COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR WOULD IMPLY IT SHOULD BE SNOWING OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER THE DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
NOT REACHING THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY IMPLIES FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER UP INTO SW
PA THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEST LIFT IS OVER THIS BOUNDARY AND
IN PA OVER SW PA WHERE THERE IS SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW.
THE HRRR AND SHORT TERM MODELS IMPLY BEST PLACE FOR SNOW IN IN SW
PA AND ALONG MD BORDER. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
AND FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW IN
PLACE AND A COLD MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY DAY OVER THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPDATE THE GRIDS...USING NEW GUIDANCE KEPT FORECAST SIMILAR WITH
THEME OF THE WAVE AND FORCING FOR SNOW SLIDING MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST. OUR SE COUNTIES WILL BE ON NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. SO...KEPT SNOW OVERNIGHT IN S/SE AS SREF
AND OTHER EFS DATA IMPLY A GOOD CHANCE FOR 0 TO A FEW INCHES
BIASED TOWARD ZERO. THINGS IMPROVE MONDAY POPS GO BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE FAST EARLY MONDAY.
PREVIOUS: UPPER LVL TROF AXIS WILL SWING THRU TONIGHT AS ASSOC
COASTAL LOW MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO SE PA THIS EVENING. DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTHERN PA WILL LIMIT THE CHC OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LOOK SITUATED TO PICK UP A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SNOW/SHSN ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVS OF SOUTHEAST PA ARE UNLIKELY TO YIELD ANY ACCUMS DUE
TO WARM GROUND/SFC TEMPS.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
AM IN WAKE OF TROF...CAUSING SKIES TO CLEAR. MONDAY LOOKS BLUSTERY
AND CHILLY...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN MISS VALLEY HIGH AND
COASTAL LOW E OF NEW ENG. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUSTS ARND
25KTS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTN.
COLD TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CU BY AFTN...ESP
OVR THE NW MTNS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARND -8C ARE JUST COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE M30S OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE M40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RISING HEIGHTS AND A SW TO WEST FLOW OF MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WORK
INTO THE AREA AFTER MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PLACEMENT OF
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF W ATLANTIC RIDGE.
00Z ECENS/NAEFS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF PA WED-THU
WITH THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE N TIER COUNTIES. BEST CHC
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS LIKELY TO COME FRIDAY...AS
E COAST RIDGE WEAKENS AND SIG SHORTWAVE WORKS EAST THRU THE GRT
LKS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BLOSSOM OVER
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...ALTHOUGH NO
REFLECTION IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND.
EXPECT MOIST EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN
CLOUDS...BEING AIDED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER THE LAURELS LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS BY
13Z IN KJST...AND LOWERED VSBYS IN SHSN BY 18Z.
OTHER THAN KJST...HAVE NOW KEPT ALL TAFS VFR FOR THE DAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH IF SOME LIGHT SNOW DOES WORK INTO KLNS AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. IF THIS DOES MATERIALIZE...WOULD LIKELY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS THERE AS WELL.
WIND SHIFT TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z...PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL PA TAFS
BETWEEN 01Z AND 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY MONDAY MORNING COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS UP FOR TUESDAY. WHILE LOWER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...NEXT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEM NOT SLATED UNTIL LATE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
MON...SNOW SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
TUE...VFR.
WED-THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
233 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
UPPER LOW OVER WEST TN WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA NOW...WITH SOME REPORTS OF HAIL/GRAUPEL AND SOME SNOW IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU. THE NAM AND RAP FOCUS LIFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE SMOKIES. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVEL HOVERING AROUND 2000 FT DURING THIS TIME...SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE THAT LEVEL. THE NAM AND GFS
APPEAR OVERDONE WITH SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE PLATEAU AND VALLEY...WHERE
CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. BUT THE MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE 1-3 INCHES...WITH MORE POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED.
LATER TONIGHT...CLEARING WILL COME BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO
LOWER 30S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE AREAS COVERED BY THE FREEZE WATCH
WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING...ALTHOUGH THE CHATTANOOGA METRO AREA
WILL BE BORDERLINE. IN THE MOUNTAINS...SOME ICY SPOTS ON ROADS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S...AND WILL MENTION
THIS IN THE NPW.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
COLD SPRING TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER FREEZE IS LOOKING LIKELY MAINLY NORTH OF I-40...IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NC. IF YOU HAVE SENSITIVE
VEGETATION TAKING PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT IT WOULD PROBABLY BE WISE.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOWER RH/S AND A BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
MAY CAUSE CONCERN FOR WILDLAND FIRE AGENCIES. HIGHER RH/S EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUICIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY BACK INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO MIDDLE TN THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS MODEL WAS MUCH LATER ARRIVING
THAN USUAL BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT REMAINS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF BY
ABOUT 12 HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR THE SECOND HALF OF
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE FORECAST AREA
DRY BY MID-DAY FRIDAY.
EARLIER MODELS WERE HINTING AT A DRY FRIDAY...RETURNING TO WET
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS
INDICATES THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE DELAYED AS MUCH AS 24
HOURS...HOLDING OFF UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND MODEL
ALSO WAS HINTING AT THE DELAY AS WELL. OBVIOUSLY THIS IS STILL A
LONG WAYS OUT AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 56 35 66 / 30 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 52 34 63 / 60 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 32 52 33 63 / 40 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 28 49 30 61 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CHEROKEE-
CLAY.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/
MONDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-
CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-
HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON
TN-WEST POLK.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
WASHINGTON.
&&
$$
DGS/AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1138 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER WEST TN AT THE MOMENT...WITH
A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS CLEARING ACROSS THE
PLATEAU THIS MORNING...IT WILL SERVE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND MIDLEVEL TEMPS COOL. THE HRRR AND
RAP AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO. LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR 10
C/KM...WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE OF 100-200 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE...AND SOME PEA-SIZED HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 12Z OHX
SOUNDING IS AROUND 2000 FT. ELEVATIONS ABOVE THIS LEVEL MAY SEE
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE
LATEST NAM AMOUNTS OF 4-6 IN THE MOUNTAINS SEEMS OVERDONE...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST PEAKS...BUT BASED ON THE SREF AND
GFS...2-4 WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 2000 FT FROM 20Z-MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 34 56 35 / 50 30 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 31 50 34 / 70 50 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 49 32 52 34 / 70 40 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 48 29 48 31 / 30 20 10 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-
MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST
POLK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR LEE-
SCOTT-WASHINGTON.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
400 AM MDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY EAST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD SLACKEN UP LATE THIS
MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER. UPPER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND MONDAY AS
A NEW PACIFIC STORM ORGANIZES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A QUICK WARMUP WITH HIGHS MONDAY BACK TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY...BRINGING STRONG AFTERNOON WINDS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH
BLOWING DUST. THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
COOLING TEMPERATURES SOME ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE
STRONG BUT BLOWING DUST MAY BE LESS OF AN IMPACT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO CHILL THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE PRESSURE RISES OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAVE ALLOWED
BREEZY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
TERRAIN. WEST EL PASO MESONET SHOWS SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30S MPH
RANGE. HRRR WIND FIELD SHOWS THIS NICELY AND DROPS WINDS OFF AFTER
15Z. LOWER CLOUD FIELD EXPANDED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
AND SPREAD DOWN TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SAC MOUNTAINS. LOOKS
MORE LIKE SC THAN STRATUS AS OBS SHOWS BASES AROUND 8000-9000 FT
MSL WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS SUGGESTING TOPS AROUND 14000 FT. STILL
LOW ENOUGH TO HANG UP ON OUR FAR EAST TERRAIN. NAM12 INITIALIZES
THIS VERY WELL AND DOES NOT MOVE CLOUDS ANY FURTHER WEST...AND
DISSIPATING THEM BY 15-18Z. ALSO TO OUR WEST...CONSIDERABLE HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MUCH OF THIS WILL DISSIPATE IN SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS TODAY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY OR MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER.
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES EAST NEW MEXICO MONDAY AS PACIFIC
STORM ORGANIZES OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL SWITCH
SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN RAPID WARMUP. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW
AND STORM SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MID LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND STRONG LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. THESE TWO FACTS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW BOTH ADVISORY AND NEAR
WARNING CRITERIA IN DIFFERENT SPOTS. SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORIES
SUGGEST GOOD BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL CONSIDERING THE AREA HAS NOT
RECEIVED ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SINCE LATE DECEMBER.
SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO
DECREASE SOME AND BLOWING DUST TO SUBSIDE. KELP PROG GFS PROG
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT EAST SLOPE EVENT TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS 60-70 MPH. NEW SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHOULD HELP DIMINISH SURFACE GRADIENT A BIT
FOR WEDNESDAY BUT MID LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE STRONG...SO ANOTHER
WINDY DAY. WEST TRAJECTORIES ALONG WITH COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT SUGGEST BLOWING DUST MAYBE LIMITED TO DEMING-LORDSBURG AREA.
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WILL DRAG SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z...
VFR CONDS BETWEEN SKC TO FEW250 THRU PERIOD. STRONGER WINDS IN THE
MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BECOMING LIGHTER BETWEEN 5-
10 AFTER 18Z. EAST WINDS UNTIL 18Z THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
PATCHES OF BKN080 TOPS 140 OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS...SLOWLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THIS MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER YESTERDAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BEFORE GOING BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
TOMORROW MONDAY...AS A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS IN THE AREA. RH
AND VENT RATES WILL BE LOW AND POOR TODAY. HOWEVER...VENT
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOMORROW AND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. ON TUESDAY CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
VERY STRONG WEST WINDS AND LOW RH`S BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL GENERATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ULTIMATELY LEADING TO A
POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND AFTERWARDS WIND STRENGTH SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
AVOID CRITICAL CONDITIONS. ALSO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 66 44 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 63 38 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 65 37 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 65 39 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 49 24 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 41 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 61 35 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 68 37 78 42 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 70 37 78 40 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 43 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 62 36 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 67 43 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 62 40 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 66 43 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 66 40 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 42 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 67 30 77 36 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 68 37 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 70 37 80 44 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 43 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 55 31 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 57 27 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 55 30 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 63 27 72 31 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 67 36 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 66 31 77 37 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 65 24 72 30 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 64 34 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 70 23 76 28 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 70 19 75 26 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 35 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 71 38 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 70 36 80 41 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 39 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 71 38 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/CRESPO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1228 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF PERIOD. LGT NORTH
WIND OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY TRANSITIONING TO WEAK/MODERATE N/NE
FLOW DRG THE AFTERNOON. LGT NORTH WIND AGAIN BY EARLY TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/
DISCUSSION...TEXT PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AS THEY WERE RUNNING TOO COLD AT
THAT TIME. BASICALLY HAVE USED RUC13 DATA (WHICH IS WORKING OUT OK
FOR NOW)...BUT THEN BLENDED THE MODEL MORE TOWARD FORECAST LOWS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...OVERALL TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR LOW WAS NOT
SIGNIFICANT. DID ADJUST CLOUD COVER FOR GENERALLY DIMINISHING OF
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. LEFT REST OF FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.
MARINE...WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE FOR THE BAYS/WATERWAYS SINCE
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST FORECAST DATA SUPPORT THIS. SCA CONTINUES
OFFSHORE. REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS WELL AS CLOUDS...WITH
MAYBE SOME MID LEVEL CIGS AT KLRD (BUT MORE LIKELY SCATTERED).
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z...AND FOR THE MOST PART BE
11 KNOTS OR LESS BY THEN (KCRP ALWAYS A BIT HIGHER AS USUAL).
WINDS BECOME MORE NE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES.
OVERALL...NOT TOO MUCH GOING ON...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MUCH MORE TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING SOME OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE NO LONGER BEING MET...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED IT.
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
MAY CONTINUE A LITTLE PAST 00Z. INCLUDED 10 POPS WITH MENTION OF
WX THROUGH 03Z FOR THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOLER AIR WILL
SPILL INTO SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT DROPPING LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE
40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE COAST WHERE LOWER 50S WILL
BE COMMON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY AND SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR TOMORROW...BUT CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE 60S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY
CHILLY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S...WITH
A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.
MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS
LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE BAYS AND WATERWAYS...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...PUTTING US BACK INTO
RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL TRIGGER A FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP...WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 80S WEST OF I-37 ON TUESDAY THEN OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THAT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COASTAL BEND BY MIDWEEK. MODELS INDICATE WEAK SUPPORT
FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. MORE DRY AND
COOL AIR COMES IN AFTER THIS FRONT...PULLING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL INTO EASTER WEEKEND.
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TIMING ON
THESE MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 43 72 57 78 / 0 0 0 10 10
VICTORIA 65 38 70 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 10
LAREDO 67 44 75 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 67 42 74 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 66 49 68 60 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
COTULLA 67 42 75 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 67 44 74 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 66 52 69 60 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
355 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY...THEN PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
12Z GFS MODEL RAN 2 HOURS LATE BUT WITHOUT UPPER AIR OR AIRCRAFT
DATA.
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING HAS BEEN HEAVILY WEIGHTED TO THE
HRRR...THEN USED THE NAM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FOR THE DAY MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TENNESSEE IS MOVING EAST AND WILL CROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WAS FALLING PRIMARILY AS RAIN...HOWEVER WHEN IT
ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER AIR OVER THE MTNS OF TN/NC...THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN AN AXIS FROM MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE VA SOUTH INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NC. THE HRRR EXPANDS THIS
AREA OF PRECIP TO ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 23Z/7PM...THEN MOVES IT EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF
THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND 04Z MIDNIGHT. AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF QPF IS FORECAST...AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO ABOUT AN INCH
OF SNOW FOR OUR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN VA AND INTO THE
NW NC HIGH COUNTRY...AND POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ON BEECH MTN.
ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE A STRETCH TO GET THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATION. THE PTYPE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN OVER
THE PIEDMONT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FOOTHILLS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME
TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS INCREASING
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP WITH MODEST PRESSURE RISES OVER THE NC
MTNS. A 35 TO 40 KT 8H NORTHWESTERLY JET IS PROGGED BY 12Z MONDAY
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWERING INVERSION AND SOME CLEARING WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NC MTNS
INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE VA BLUE RIDGE
FROM FANCY GAP TO ROANOKE. WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. ONCE
THE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND
THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THEN LOOK FOR THEM TO DIP
BELOW FREEZING. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NC
FOOTHILLS. THE GROWING SEASON PER COLLABORATION WITH AGRICULTURAL
EXTENSION AGENTS HAS ALSO STARTED IN SMYTH AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES
IN VIRGINIA THANKS TO THE WARMER TEMPS THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
PER COORDINATION WITH WFO GSP AND MRX THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE
IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 10AM MONDAY.
FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST
RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE GULF COAST.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL...BUT AT LEAST 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
THE 12Z GFS WAS ABOUT TWO HOURS LATE TODAY DUE TO TECHNICAL
DIFFICULTIES. FORTUNATELY...IT PAINTS THE SAME STORY AS THE 12Z NAM
AND THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER
THE GULF COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...THAT WILL SEND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN FLATTENS AND TURNS ZONAL BY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL
BRING THE MID ATLANTIC A SOUTHWEST FLOW. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH HIGHS TOWARD THE 50S AND 60S.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG EASTWARD
FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DOWNSTREAM
RESPONSE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING RIDGING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC. THUS...THE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SEND HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ORGANIZE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND HEAD EAST OF THE PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS MAY BE NOTICED WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE OF ANY
RAIN ARRIVES LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE IN THE MODELS. THE GFS
PUSHES THE MOISTURE INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND HAS THE
FRONT EXITING ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING
THE MOISTURE INTO THE CWA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...AND HAS THE FRONT
EXITING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
HELD THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE RAMPING IT UP ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE TIMING OFF THE ECMWF WOULD MAKE IT COMPLETELY UNFAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION...THE GFS ALLOWS A SMALL WINDOW FOR CONVECTION TO THE
WEST BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FURTHER LOOK AT THE CAPE VALUES
INDICATES HARDLY ANY INSTABILITY PRESENT IN THE GFS...SO NO THUNDER
WAS INSERTED THROUGHOUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY COULD LIKELY END UP 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE HIGHS FROM THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS PUSHES A NEW LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE CWA. DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT CHANCES OF RAIN
COULD RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
ALL TAF SITES WILL BE STUCK IN LOW END MVFR TO LIFR AT TIMES
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THIS EVENING. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH
WORSE TO OUR SOUTH WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR
THE MOUNTAINS OF NC INTO EASTERN TN AND NORTHERN GA.
THINGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNING MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE HIGH IN LOW END MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS
ARRIVING BY LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT IN THE MTNS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
VAZ009.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NCZ003-019-020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1029 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST HEADLINES THIS EVENING.
NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES TO THE GIST OF THE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING STORM EITHER...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME FORECAST CONCERNS
STARTING TO CROP UP.
THE UPCOMING MID-WEEK SNOW LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC TWO PRONGED
EVENT. THE FIRST PHASE WILL BE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL
STREAK EWD AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TOMORROW EVENING. IT/S
REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN GIVEN THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND INCRG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACRS THE AREA. BUT THE
INITIAL BAND OF SIG PCPN WILL PROBABLY BE NARROW...AND IT/S
UNCLEAR EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL SET UP. THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION
OF PCPN TYPE... ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR WILL JUST BE SETTLING INTO PLACE. FCST STRATEGY USED
BY THE DAY SHIFT WAS TO PLAN ON HANDLING THE LEAD BAND WITH AN
SPS AND POSSIBLY AN ADVISORY...RESERVING THE WATCH FOR THE MAIN
SYSTEM. THAT STRATEGY MAY WORK OUT...BUT IT/S ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
THERE WON/T BE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK BETWEEN THE LEAD BAND AND THE
MAIN SYSTEM. AND IF THE LEAD BAND FALLS AS PRIMARILY SNOW AND
OVERLAPS THE HEAVIER SNOWS OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...SNOW TOTALS IN
GOING FORECAST COULD END UP BEING INSUFFICIENT FOR THE AFFECTED
AREAS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE LEAD BAND OF PCPN WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY...AND COULD NECESSITATE A MUCH EARLIER START TIME
FOR THE HEADLINE IF SOME AREAS.
ANOTHER FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW
BAND WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM...AND PINNING DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS. THE
LATEST ECMWF JOGGED NWD A BIT WITH THE HEAVIER QPF...THOUGH IT
REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A SHARP DROP OFF IN PCPN NW OF THE
FOX VALLEY...WITH NO PCPN IN THE NRN 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. THE
GFS AND NAM REMAIN FARTHER N...WITH SIG PCPN ACRS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA. MY BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS THAT A COMPROMISE WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE ECMWF WILL VERIFY BEST.
WILL FRESHEN UP THE HWO TO BETTER SPECIFY THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWS
IN THE LEAD-BAND TO HAMPER TRAVEL PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM.
AS FAR AS TONIGHT GOES...MID-LEVEL RADAR RETURNS INCRG ACRS THE
AREA...BUT LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY. GOING FCST WITH SNOWS MAINLY
OVER UPPER MICHIGAN BUT JUST CLIPPING THE BORDER AREAS OF THE FCST
AREA LOOKS ON TRACK. NO SIG CHANGES THERE.
UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE WL BE OUT ASAP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER THE U.P. BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A
CU FIELD EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ALSO SPILLING OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST...AHEAD OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE DAKOTAS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT...LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES IS THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE U.P. BORDER WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH AS RATHER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES OVER THE TOP.
BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF FGEN-INDUCED PRECIP OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
INCREASE LATE IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DATA CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE U.P.
BORDER...WHILE AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A RHINELANDER TO STURGEON
BAY LINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THOUGH...AS A BROKEN MID-DECK ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...AND LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.
TUESDAY...THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
WI...BUT MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL PERSIST FARTHER NORTH OVER FAR NORTHERN
WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THINK LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SOME DIMINISHING IS
LIKELY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURS OUT. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. AS CLOUD BASES LOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES COULD PERSIST. FARTHER
SOUTH...TIGHTENING OF THE FRONT AND INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD RECIPE FOR LOWER CLOUDS TO MAKE A SURGE
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI LATE. SHOULD SEE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS DUE TO
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID OR UPPER 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
PRIMARY CONCERNS CONTINUES WITH A SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WHICH LIKELY IMPACT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
MID WEEK. TYPICAL OF THESE SPRING/WINTER SYSTEMS...VERY DYNAMIC
AND ALSO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW.
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL RANGE FROM THE NORTHERN 12Z GFS
TRACK WHICH INCLUDES HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...TO THE
SOUTHERN ECMWF 12Z SOLUTION WHICH AFFECTS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CONSENSUS AND REST OF SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTS THE HEAVY SNOW BAND SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO WAUSAUKEE LINE.
THESE SEPARATE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT WITH THERE
PARTICULAR SOLUTIONS WITH PERHAPS THE 12Z NAM SHOWING A SHIFT
NORTH.
ONE REASON FOR THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS IS THE SOUTHWARD PUSH
OF A BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATES A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH FROM THE WARMER AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH.
SOME PROGS BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN ALONG THIS FGEN REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM FOCUSES A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACKED
OFF THIS PCPN. SO PERHAPS SATURATION ISSUES MAY PLAGUE THIS SYSTEM
INITIALLY.
THE MAIN SURFACE AND 850 LOW TRACK OVER THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE MAIN PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN THESE SYSTEM TRACKS STILL PRODUCING A DIFFERENCE RANGE OF
ABOUT 150 MILES...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH
COUPLET UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WILL BE WITH ENHANCED WITH A
GRADUALLY DESCENDING SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN INTO THURSDAY...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE ANTICIPATED RANGE OF 6-11.
THE MORE NORTHERN GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX VARIETY AT
THE ONSET FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH WOULD HOLD DOWN
SNOW AMOUNTS. DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL USE
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW AND TURNING TO ALL SNOW.
IN ADDITION TO DETERMINING THE HEAVY SNOW AXIS...OTHER ISSUES
WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AMOUNTS INCLUDE ADDING THUNDER
AND SLEET IF THIS BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKS MORE
NORTH. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ADVECT DRIER AIR FORM NORTH TO HOLD
DOWN PCPN AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO COVER THE SYSTEM SNOW
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ITS POSSIBLE AN
ADVISORY OR SPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INITIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION.
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LATE WEEK...TIMING ISSUES WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
CLD BASES WERE GRADUALLY LOWERING...BUT STILL IN VFR CATEGORY.
SOME LGT SNOW MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR N/NE OVERNIGHT...
BUT THAT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE RHI TAF. COLD FRONT WL
GRADUALLY SAG SWD ACRS THE AREA THE NEXT 24 HRS. AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP...CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO
LOWER TO MVFR ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA TUE AFTN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ038>040-045-048>050.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ018>020-030-031-035>037.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ021-022-073-074.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
836 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST HEADLINES THIS EVENING.
NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES TO THE GIST OF THE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING STORM EITHER...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME FORECAST CONCERNS
STARTING TO CROP UP.
THE UPCOMING MID-WEEK SNOW LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC TWO PRONGED
EVENT. THE FIRST PHASE WILL BE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL
STREAK EWD AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TOMORROW EVENING. IT/S
REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN GIVEN THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND INCRG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACRS THE AREA. BUT THE
INITIAL BAND OF SIG PCPN WILL PROBABLY BE NARROW...AND IT/S
UNCLEAR EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL SET UP. THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION
OF PCPN TYPE... ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR WILL JUST BE SETTLING INTO PLACE. FCST STRATEGY USED
BY THE DAY SHIFT WAS TO PLAN ON HANDLING THE LEAD BAND WITH AN
SPS AND POSSIBLY AN ADVISORY...RESERVING THE WATCH FOR THE MAIN
SYSTEM. THAT STRATEGY MAY WORK OUT...BUT IT/S ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
THERE WON/T BE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK BETWEEN THE LEAD BAND AND THE
MAIN SYSTEM. AND IF THE LEAD BAND FALLS AS PRIMARILY SNOW AND
OVERLAPS THE HEAVIER SNOWS OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...SNOW TOTALS IN
GOING FORECAST COULD END UP BEING INSUFFICIENT FOR THE AFFECTED
AREAS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE LEAD BAND OF PCPN WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY...AND COULD NECESSITATE A MUCH EARLIER START TIME
FOR THE HEADLINE IF SOME AREAS.
ANOTHER FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW
BAND WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM...AND PINNING DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS. THE
LATEST ECMWF JOGGED NWD A BIT WITH THE HEAVIER QPF...THOUGH IT
REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A SHARP DROP OFF IN PCPN NW OF THE
FOX VALLEY...WITH NO PCPN IN THE NRN 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. THE
GFS AND NAM REMAIN FARTHER N...WITH SIG PCPN ACRS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA. MY BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS THAT A COMPROMISE WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE ECMWF WILL VERIFY BEST.
WILL FRESHEN UP THE HWO TO BETTER SPECIFY THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWS
IN THE LEAD-BAND TO HAMPER TRAVEL PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM.
AS FAR AS TONIGHT GOES...MID-LEVEL RADAR RETURNS INCRG ACRS THE
AREA...BUT LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY. GOING FCST WITH SNOWS MAINLY
OVER UPPER MICHIGAN BUT JUST CLIPPING THE BORDER AREAS OF THE FCST
AREA LOOKS ON TRACK. NO SIG CHANGES THERE.
UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE WL BE OUT ASAP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER THE U.P. BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A
CU FIELD EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ALSO SPILLING OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST...AHEAD OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE DAKOTAS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT...LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES IS THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE U.P. BORDER WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH AS RATHER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES OVER THE TOP.
BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF FGEN-INDUCED PRECIP OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
INCREASE LATE IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DATA CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE U.P.
BORDER...WHILE AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A RHINELANDER TO STURGEON
BAY LINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THOUGH...AS A BROKEN MID-DECK ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...AND LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.
TUESDAY...THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
WI...BUT MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL PERSIST FARTHER NORTH OVER FAR NORTHERN
WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THINK LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SOME DIMINISHING IS
LIKELY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURS OUT. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. AS CLOUD BASES LOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES COULD PERSIST. FARTHER
SOUTH...TIGHTENING OF THE FRONT AND INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD RECIPE FOR LOWER CLOUDS TO MAKE A SURGE
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI LATE. SHOULD SEE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS DUE TO
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID OR UPPER 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
PRIMARY CONCERNS CONTINUES WITH A SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WHICH LIKELY IMPACT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
MID WEEK. TYPICAL OF THESE SPRING/WINTER SYSTEMS...VERY DYNAMIC
AND ALSO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW.
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL RANGE FROM THE NORTHERN 12Z GFS
TRACK WHICH INCLUDES HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...TO THE
SOUTHERN ECMWF 12Z SOLUTION WHICH AFFECTS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CONSENSUS AND REST OF SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTS THE HEAVY SNOW BAND SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO WAUSAUKEE LINE.
THESE SEPARATE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT WITH THERE
PARTICULAR SOLUTIONS WITH PERHAPS THE 12Z NAM SHOWING A SHIFT
NORTH.
ONE REASON FOR THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS IS THE SOUTHWARD PUSH
OF A BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATES A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH FROM THE WARMER AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH.
SOME PROGS BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN ALONG THIS FGEN REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM FOCUSES A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACKED
OFF THIS PCPN. SO PERHAPS SATURATION ISSUES MAY PLAGUE THIS SYSTEM
INITIALLY.
THE MAIN SURFACE AND 850 LOW TRACK OVER THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE MAIN PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN THESE SYSTEM TRACKS STILL PRODUCING A DIFFERENCE RANGE OF
ABOUT 150 MILES...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH
COUPLET UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WILL BE WITH ENHANCED WITH A
GRADUALLY DESCENDING SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN INTO THURSDAY...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE ANTICIPATED RANGE OF 6-11.
THE MORE NORTHERN GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX VARIETY AT
THE ONSET FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH WOULD HOLD DOWN
SNOW AMOUNTS. DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL USE
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW AND TURNING TO ALL SNOW.
IN ADDITION TO DETERMINING THE HEAVY SNOW AXIS...OTHER ISSUES
WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AMOUNTS INCLUDE ADDING THUNDER
AND SLEET IF THIS BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKS MORE
NORTH. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ADVECT DRIER AIR FORM NORTH TO HOLD
DOWN PCPN AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO COVER THE SYSTEM SNOW
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ITS POSSIBLE AN
ADVISORY OR SPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INITIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION.
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LATE WEEK...TIMING ISSUES WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE UPPER MICHGAN BORDER
OVERNIGHT...THEN BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD. AS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE FRONT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH AND NORTHEAST
WINDS PICK UP...CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO MVFR ACRS THE
ENTIRE AREA TUE AFTN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ038>040-045-048>050.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ018>020-030-031-035>037.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ021-022-073-074.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......JS/MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
553 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER THE U.P. BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A
CU FIELD EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ALSO SPILLING OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST...AHEAD OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE DAKOTAS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT...LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES IS THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE U.P. BORDER WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH AS RATHER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES OVER THE TOP.
BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF FGEN-INDUCED PRECIP OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
INCREASE LATE IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DATA CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE U.P.
BORDER...WHILE AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A RHINELANDER TO STURGEON
BAY LINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THOUGH...AS A BROKEN MID-DECK ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...AND LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.
TUESDAY...THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
WI...BUT MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL PERSIST FARTHER NORTH OVER FAR NORTHERN
WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THINK LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SOME DIMINISHING IS
LIKELY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURS OUT. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. AS CLOUD BASES LOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES COULD PERSIST. FARTHER
SOUTH...TIGHTENING OF THE FRONT AND INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD RECIPE FOR LOWER CLOUDS TO MAKE A SURGE
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI LATE. SHOULD SEE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS DUE TO
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID OR UPPER 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
PRIMARY CONCERNS CONTINUES WITH A SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WHICH LIKELY IMPACT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
MID WEEK. TYPICAL OF THESE SPRING/WINTER SYSTEMS...VERY DYNAMIC
AND ALSO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW.
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL RANGE FROM THE NORTHERN 12Z GFS
TRACK WHICH INCLUDES HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...TO THE
SOUTHERN ECMWF 12Z SOLUTION WHICH AFFECTS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CONSENSUS AND REST OF SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTS THE HEAVY SNOW BAND SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO WAUSAUKEE LINE.
THESE SEPARATE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT WITH THERE
PARTICULAR SOLUTIONS WITH PERHAPS THE 12Z NAM SHOWING A SHIFT
NORTH.
ONE REASON FOR THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS IS THE SOUTHWARD PUSH
OF A BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATES A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH FROM THE WARMER AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH.
SOME PROGS BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN ALONG THIS FGEN REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM FOCUSES A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACKED
OFF THIS PCPN. SO PERHAPS SATURATION ISSUES MAY PLAGUE THIS SYSTEM
INITIALLY.
THE MAIN SURFACE AND 850 LOW TRACK OVER THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE MAIN PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN THESE SYSTEM TRACKS STILL PRODUCING A DIFFERENCE RANGE OF
ABOUT 150 MILES...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH
COUPLET UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WILL BE WITH ENHANCED WITH A
GRADUALLY DESCENDING SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN INTO THURSDAY...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE ANTICIPATED RANGE OF 6-11.
THE MORE NORTHERN GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX VARIETY AT
THE ONSET FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH WOULD HOLD DOWN
SNOW AMOUNTS. DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL USE
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW AND TURNING TO ALL SNOW.
IN ADDITION TO DETERMINING THE HEAVY SNOW AXIS...OTHER ISSUES
WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AMOUNTS INCLUDE ADDING THUNDER
AND SLEET IF THIS BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKS MORE
NORTH. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ADVECT DRIER AIR FORM NORTH TO HOLD
DOWN PCPN AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO COVER THE SYSTEM SNOW
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ITS POSSIBLE AN
ADVISORY OR SPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INITIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION.
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LATE WEEK...TIMING ISSUES WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE UPPER MICHGAN BORDER
OVERNIGHT...THEN BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD. AS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE FRONT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH AND NORTHEAST
WINDS PICK UP...CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO MVFR ACRS THE
ENTIRE AREA TUE AFTN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ038>040-045-048>050.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ018>020-030-031-035>037.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ021-022-073-074.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......JS/MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
549 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO AND APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND IS GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WI THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE CU FIELD HAS NOT BEEN AS
ROBUST FARTHER SOUTH...AND THINK SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND SKY TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SHORT-TERM.
TONIGHT...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...THE HIGHER RES MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A SMALL CHANCE REMAINS THAT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO FAR N-C WISCONSIN AND THE NORTHERN TIP
OF THE DOOR. ELSEWHERE...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO BE PRESENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...CLOUDS THAT BUILD THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE NORTH...EVEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SOME BREAKS WILL
INEVITABLY OCCUR THOUGH. EXCEPT FOR THE DOOR PENINSULA...PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ONCE THE CU
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SINCE WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS AROUND...LOW
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH.
MONDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
MORNING. THOUGH DIURNAL BUILD UP OF CU SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS TODAY...WILL HAVE AMPLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR A PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. HIGHS AROUND
40 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
HIGHLIGHT OF THIS PERIOD TOWARD MID WEEK AS PROGS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO PASS OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION INCLUDING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
BUT FIRST...FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT LIFTING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED WITH A UPPER 100 KT
JETLET LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA. FORECAST TEMPS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW FOR FAR
NORTHEAST THEN TRENDING TO LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION APPEARS STILL ON TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS
SEPARATING THE COLD AIR MASS TO THE NORTH WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH
THE REGION OF HEAVY SNOW STARTING MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL THE
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
WHILE CONFIDENCE OF A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS INCREASING FOR THE
REGION DUE TO A COLDER TREND...CONFIDENCE OF THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVY SNOW BAND REMAINS LOW. OVERVIEW OF THE LATEST PROGS...THE
GFS PAINTS THE HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS WELL SOUTH. THE CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BUT
INCLUDES HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
ALL PROGS DEVELOP A VERY INTENSE FGEN BAND OF SNOW WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SURFACE AND H850 LOW TRACK OVER
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE BLUSTERY
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINTER
RETURNS TO THE AREA.
QUIET WEATHER BUT COOL REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER.
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS SUGGESTS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT DROPS OVER
THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CLD DECK TO
DEVELOP AND DROP SWD INTO NRN WI IN THE WAKE OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV
EXITING THE ERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. QUITE A FEW CLDS ACRS THE
UPPER PENINSULA RIGHT NOW...BUT THEY ARE SOMEWHAT CELLULAR LOOKING
AND MAY TEND TO DIMINISH AFTER DUSK. ADDITIONAL CLDS COULD FORM
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TNGT. MID-LVL HEIGHTS EDGE DOWN UNTIL ABOUT
10Z...THEN BEGIN TO REBOUND. AIR TEMPERATURE/LAKE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR CLDS. WL STICK
CLOSE TO THE PREV FCST FOR N-C WI FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO PULL
BACK SOME ON THE CLDS IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE IF ADDITIONAL CLD
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT APPARENT BY LATE EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO AND APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND IS GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WI THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE CU FIELD HAS NOT BEEN AS
ROBUST FARTHER SOUTH...AND THINK SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND SKY TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SHORT-TERM.
TONIGHT...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...THE HIGHER RES MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A SMALL CHANCE REMAINS THAT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO FAR N-C WISCONSIN AND THE NORTHERN TIP
OF THE DOOR. ELSEWHERE...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO BE PRESENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...CLOUDS THAT BUILD THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE NORTH...EVEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SOME BREAKS WILL
INEVITABLY OCCUR THOUGH. EXCEPT FOR THE DOOR PENINSULA...PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ONCE THE CU
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SINCE WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS AROUND...LOW
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH.
MONDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
MORNING. THOUGH DIURNAL BUILD UP OF CU SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS TODAY...WILL HAVE AMPLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR A PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. HIGHS AROUND
40 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
HIGHLIGHT OF THIS PERIOD TOWARD MID WEEK AS PROGS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO PASS OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION INCLUDING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
BUT FIRST...FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT LIFTING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED WITH A UPPER 100 KT
JETLET LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA. FORECAST TEMPS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW FOR FAR
NORTHEAST THEN TRENDING TO LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION APPEARS STILL ON TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS
SEPARATING THE COLD AIR MASS TO THE NORTH WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH
THE REGION OF HEAVY SNOW STARTING MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL THE
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
WHILE CONFIDENCE OF A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS INCREASING FOR THE
REGION DUE TO A COLDER TREND...CONFIDENCE OF THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVY SNOW BAND REMAINS LOW. OVERVIEW OF THE LATEST PROGS...THE
GFS PAINTS THE HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS WELL SOUTH. THE CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BUT
INCLUDES HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
ALL PROGS DEVELOP A VERY INTENSE FGEN BAND OF SNOW WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SURFACE AND H850 LOW TRACK OVER
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE BLUSTERY
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINTER
RETURNS TO THE AREA.
QUIET WEATHER BUT COOL REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER.
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS SUGGESTS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT DROPS OVER
THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH TO CREATE SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW END VFR
OR HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND
NORTH-CENTRAL WI INTO MONDAY MORNING DUE NORTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
MORNING WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS BUILDING AGAIN BY MIDDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1043 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.UPDATE...
PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY. I AM STILL EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING FROM MADISON AND WEST WHERE THERE
IS A SUBTLE PUSH OF COLDER 925MB AIR. THESE SHOULD MIX OUT AND THIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE SHORELINE WILL WEAKEN AND TURN NORTHEAST WITH
A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS.
THERE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS INLAND TO KEEP THE LAKE
BREEZE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL IMPACT
THE MAX TEMPS IN MILWAUKEE... RACINE AND KENOSHA CITIES NEAR THE
LAKESHORE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
BKN 2500-3500 FT CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM MSN AND WEST
PRIOR TO 18Z BUT THEN THIN OUT TO SCT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
CLOUD BASES RISE TO 4000 TO 5000 FT. THEN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FOR
TNT.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTH
LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THE NEXT TIME PERIOD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS IS TUESDAY
MORNING FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI WHILE ONLY A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN OVER ROCK AND WALWORTH
COUNTIES. THE UPPER LOW OVER MO AND ITS TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
LATER TODAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES THIS AFT AND EVE. THUS EXPECT A CONTINUED DECREASE OF
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE
AFT. 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 0C YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY
WHICH AGREES WELL WITH MOS GUIDANCE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
FORM BY THE MIDDLE AFT AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE LAKE. FOR
TNT...STRONGER NWLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED WITH SCT-BKN
HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE MS RIVER
BY 12Z MON. LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WESTERLY AS STRENGTHENING
JET ENERGY ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. UPSTREAM WAVE BREAKING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY WITH
RIPPLES EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE IN
THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS US QUIET WEATHER LOCALLY
ON MONDAY...BEFORE SLIDING TO OUR EAST BY EVENING. THIS OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NOSE OF
A STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET POINTS INTO THE AREA. FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE FIELDS SUGGEST SOME DECENT LIFT TAKING PLACE...HOWEVER
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WHICH MUST BE
OVERCOME TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITION. FOR NOW KEPT THE DRY
FORECAST GOING...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE LIGHT
LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD GIVEN THE
ADVERTISED FORCING.
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR MILD TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTH WHERE HIGHS
COULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT...WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT CHILLER FOR THE NORTHERN LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER WAVE PROGRESSES FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AS A DEEPENINIG SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND IS MAXIMIZED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER
THE 20.00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
TO AROUND ONE INCH IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS QUITE GOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH JET-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...700-400 MB DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM THERMAL ADVECTION ALL PRESENT. QPF
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY UNCERTANITY
FOR US AT THIS JUNCTURE IS PRECIPITATION TYPE. ON THE STRONGER AND
FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WE HAVE THE 20.00Z
GFS...WHICH BRINGS A 991 MB SFC LOW THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN SERVICE
AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE A WARMER SOLUTION WITH THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORTING MOSTLY RAIN IN OUR SOUTH WITH A MIXY SOLUTION
TO THE NORTH. A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY SFC LOW TRACK IS
PRESENTED VIA THE 20.00Z ECMWF WITH THE 995 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI AT THIS SAME TIME. THIS WOULD BE A COLDER SOLUTION MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY TO
SEVERAL INCHES. THE 20.00Z GGEM APPEARS IN SOME RESPECTS SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF IN TRACK...BUT IS MUCH SLOWER. NEEDLESS TO SAY THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
REGARING THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM SO WE/LL BE WATCHING
THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST IS MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. A SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A
DRY NLY FLOW. SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT EXPECTED FOR THE AFT. THEN
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FOR TNT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SPM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
200 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDELY SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM
INTERSTATE 90 NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. THEN...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK
WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BY TONIGHT. IT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND BECOME A
STATIONARY FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT...RADARS STILL FOLLOWING QUASI LAKE EFFECT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
THE LATEST HRRR HAS A PARTIAL HANDLE BUT BELIEVE IT MIGHT
BE A TAD TOO FAST ENDING THE ACTIVITY.
IT MIGHT NOT END UNTIL THE H850 RIDGE REACHES...AFTER DAWN. WILL
CONTINUE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED EXPECT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
WHERE A COUPLE TENTHS MORE OF SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
OUTSIDE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...IT WAS MAINLY CLEAR. WE EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE. A GUSTY WIND STILL CONTINUED DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO THE CD AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. WE
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO ABATE BY DAWN...NOT COMPLETELY BUT DOWN TO 5-
10 MPH.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BE FALLING MUCH DUE TO THE BREEZE AND SOME
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...WE THINK THEY WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BY SUNRISE
AS THE BREEZE DIMINISHES. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH THE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MOST OTHER PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AS
WE GO INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT. THIS WILL SET UP THE CHANCES OF SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS
WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 12Z MODEL
AND NUMERICAL DATA ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT AND WITH THE NATURE
OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ANY SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL CHANGE
THE P-TYPE FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OUT OF
CANADA WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME
OF THE LATEST 12Z MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTPUTS ARE HINTING AT THE
COLD FRONT TO STALL OUT AND BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT OVER PORTION
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS TEMPERATURE
DICHOTOMY ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GENERATE A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE DIURNAL TRENDS...ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE JUST RAIN SHOWERS WHILE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOME RAIN/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR FREEZING IN THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID AND
UPPER 40S WITH A FEW 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN
TO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS WE GO INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING THE STALLED OUT FRONT
SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE MOST
OF THE REGION FROM SFC TO 850 HPA WITH A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT STILL STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THIS SOLUTION IN PARTICULAR BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL PROVIDE A TRICKY FORECAST FOR P-TYPES AS WE GO
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BY 2 AM
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE COLDER MODEL OUTPUTS HAVE 925 HPA
TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C BY 06Z THURSDAY FROM A LINE EXTENDING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...INTO SARATOGA COUNTY AND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. THIS
AXIS POINTS NORTHWARD MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IMPULSE RIDES
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN OUR CURRENT FORECAST RIGHT
NOW...FREEZING RAIN IS MENTIONED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR THE LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST
AND WILL UPDATE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN TO START THE LONG TERM...WITH A ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONING INTO A SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA MAY SUPPORT
LOW LEVEL COOL AIR SETTLING SOUTH...AND OR PERSISTING ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST. A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND TRACK INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OR EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THU-FRI. A STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD
REMAIN ESTABLISHED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...SO SMALL DISPLACEMENTS ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND SFC LOW TRACK COULD MEAN WIDELY VARYING
TEMPERATURES...AND EVEN P-TYPES ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THIS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE REGION...OR JUST TO OUR S AND W ON THU. ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE 40S...IF
NOT COOLER. ON THE WARM SIDE...GENERALLY 50S-60S ARE EXPECTED...IF
NOT WARMER. HAVE SIDED A BIT COOLER THAN SUPERBLEND FOR THU
MAXES...WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR S AND W
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. IN FACT...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN THE
MORNING. THEN...THE FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD THU NT/EARLY FRI...JUST
AS THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. RAIN AND/OR
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER FRIDAY. TEMPS THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 30S/40S...WHILE MAX TEMPS FRI REACH THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.
FRI NT-SAT NT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD IN WITH FAIR WEATHER
AND TEMPS NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAXES IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 30S TO MID 40S FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
SUN-MON...ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH THE
12Z/21 ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER WITH ITS OVERALL PROGRESSION. WILL
INDICATE INCREASING CLOUDS...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUN AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IF CLOUDS/RAIN
ARRIVE SOONER ON SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS COULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE PLACED A TEMPO FOR MVFR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 10Z AT KPSF AND
KALB AS THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WHICH ENDS AT 06Z
WEDNESDAY.
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT KALB AND KALB SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5-
10KTS BY THE MORNING PEAK. THE WIND TURN MORE WESTERLY AND GUSTS TO
18KTS COULD RESUME MIDDAY AT KALB AND KPSF...BEFORE BACKING INTO THE
SW AND ULTIMATELY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OVERNIGHT REPLACED
VERY BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH. THEN...CLOUDS
FROM ANOTHER FRONT...DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA...WILL MOVE IN
LATER TODAY...THICKEN AND COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT
AFTER THE EVENING PEAK.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...
RH VALUES 20-25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...
IT HAS BEEN MORE THAN FIVE DAYS SINCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
(0.25 INCHES) HAS FALLEN ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK (EXCEPT FOR
HAMILTON/WARREN AND SARATOGA COUNTIES WHERE IT AS BEEN 3-5 DAYS
SINCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS TAKEN PLACE). IT HAS BEEN 3-5
DAYS SINCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN ACROSS ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
LIGHT SNOW HAS FALLEN OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND BERKSHIRE
COUNTIES...UP TO NEAR 3 INCHES IN PARTS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND HIGH RH VALUES ACROSS ALL
AREAS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS WE GO INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE QPF FORECAST AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES AT THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/LFM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT LKS BTWN GENERAL TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA/NE CONUS AND
AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF MID/HI CLDS
STREAMING INTO THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF A SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE NRN
PLAINS/ACCOMPANYING WAA...BUT VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL
RAOB HAS SLOWED/LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF BAND OF WAA PCPN STRETCHING
ACRS NCENTRAL MN TOWARD FAR WRN LK SUP DESPITE A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT SHOWN BEST ON THE 285-290K ISENTROPIC SFCS /H85-7/ OVER THE
AREA AND ACCOMPANYING BAND OF SHARPER FGEN. THIS VERY DRY AIR IS
EVIDENT ALSO ON THE 00Z YPL/GRB/APX RAOBS AND HAS ALLOWED NOTHING
MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES INTO THE CWA AS OF 08Z DESITE THE THICKENING
CLDS/SHARPENING FGEN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/FGEN FCST TO IMPACT THE CWA AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW
MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO SHEAR OUT AS IT
HEADS TO THE E IN FAST WNW FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THIS TREND AND
ABUNDANT DRY AIR ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN...MODELS SHOW PRES
GRADIENT ON THE 285-290K ISENTROPIC SFC TIGHTENING OVER THE CWA AS
AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN IN THE H85-75 LYR CROSSES THE AREA THIS MRNG
BEFORE EXITING IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE PRES/THERMAL GRADIENT IS FCST
TO TIGHTEN...EXPECT SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SHOWING
BAND OF SOME -SN DVLPG OVER MAINLY THE CNTRL CWA...WHICH WL BE UNDER
THE BAND OF SHARPER FGEN. FCST SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THE 2-3G/KG
RANGE WOULD SUPPORT UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SN DURING THE 6-9HR
PERIOD OF FORCING...BUT IMPACT OF LLVL DRY AIR AS WELL AS MARGINAL
ADDITIONAL DYANMIC SUPPORT RELATED TO THE SHEARING SHRTWV SUGGEST SN
TOTALS WL BE MAINLY UP TO 2 INCHES. IN FACT...THE WPC FCST SHOWS
ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SN UNDER THE FGEN BAND. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE UPSLOPING ENE WINDS
MAY AID LLVL MOISTENING/SN AMOUNTS. OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL... FCST
SDNGS SUG ANY PCPN WL BE AT LEAST MIXED WITH RA. BUT MANY OF THE
MODELS SHOW NO PCPN FALLING IN THIS AREA ANYWAY...SO WL PAINT THE
LOWER POPS IN THIS AREA. ONE OTHER IMPACT OF THE LLVL DRY AIR WL TO
SHARPEN THE NRN EDGE OF THE POPS SO THAT THE NRN KEWEENAW MAY SEE
LTL PCPN/SN AS WELL. AFTER THE SHARPER FGEN EXITS THIS AFTN...EXPECT
DIMINISHING POPS. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAVE SHOWN THE PCPN MAY TAPER TO
DRIZZLE...BUT CONCERNED THE DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS MAY LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. CONFINED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE TO MAINLY THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL.
TNGT...WITH DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING DOMINATING...EXPECT
A GENERALLY DRY FCST. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME LGT PCPN
PERSISTING OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE NNE
FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF HI PRES BLDG INTO NW ONTARIO...BUT DRYNESS
OF THE AIRMASS TO THE N FAVORS THE DRIER PCPN FREE GUIDANCE FOR THIS
AREA. BUT WL HOLD ON TO SOME LO CHC POPS FOR SN OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...WHICH WL BE NEAR THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES OF LO PRES MOVING ALONG STALLED SFC FNT OVER
THE LOWER GRT LKS. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLRG ASSOCIATED WITH
THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FM THE N...TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS AT
SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS DURING THE NGT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
ALL FOCUS REMAINS ON A STRONG EARLY SPRING STORM CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THE 00Z
GUIDANCE PROVIDES SOME RESOLUTION IN THE ONGOING DIFFERENCES WITHIN
THE SUITE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
NORTHWARD SOLUTION...BUT HAS TRENDED A TOUCH SOUTHWARD.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH...BUT MADE A
NORTHWARD SHIFT. THE CANADIAN GEM FALLS BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE CAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IS ACTUALLY QUITE SUBTLE...AND OCCURS OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT. FOR THE GFS...THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES ALLOWS FOR
PHASING WITH A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO BEGIN EARLIER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF ATTEMPTS TO CUT OFF THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN KANSAS. IN REALITY...THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN HEAVY SNOW (GFS) AND LITTLE SNOW (ECMWF) FOR MOST OF UPPER
MI IS HINGING ON THE ABILITY OF THE WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO
PICK UP THE APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH...WITH LESS THAN TWO HUNDRED
MILES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE (NORTHERN CO FOR THE GFS VS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CO FOR THE
ECMWF TONIGHT).
SIMPLY PUT...THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MILWAUKEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT PLACEMENT AND TIMING...BOTH TIED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES...REMAIN IN QUESTION.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MI WILL SEE WARNING-LEVEL CONDITIONS WITH
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG NE WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH A LOT OF DAILY TRAVEL TYPICALLY OCCURRING
BETWEEN MENOMINEE AND GREEN BAY...FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
MENOMINEE COUNTY FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER IMPACTS. AS FOR THE NEXT
TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH...DICKINSON...DELTA...AND SOUTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR AT LEAST MODERATE
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ADDS A LIMITING FACTOR ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SNOW. GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS...THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD...BUT WANTED TO
REMAIN MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE MODEL ISSUES.
THE WATCH FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY WAS ISSUED FROM 21Z WED TO 18Z
THU...WITH THE START TIME ENCOMPASSING THE ONSET OF SNOW FOR
THE EVENING COMMUTE.
BEYOND THU...SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF COLDER AIR
AND A COUPLE ROUNDS OF MIXED PRECIP TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SPECIFICS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
A BAND OF SN FORMING N OF A STNRY FNT OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR
MIDWEST WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI LATER TNGT...WITH LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR
AND VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE CONTINUING INTO TUE MORNING. IFR
VSBYS/CIGS IN MIX OF -SN/DZ AND MAYBE EVEN FZDZ COULD CONTINUE AT
KSAW IN UPSLOPE NE FLOW INTO MID MON AFTERNOON. EXPECT PCPN TO END W
TO E TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT KSAW
AND KIWD AND TO VFR AT KCMX AS BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA IN A NE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS RIDGING
SETTLES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY.
WINDS BECOME 20 TO 30 KNOTS FOR ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED EVENING
THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH GALES GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
EAST HALF. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THU
NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS ARRIVE AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FRI. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
CURRENT RADAR AND GROUND TRUTH DATA SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY
BENSON...TOWNER AND RAMSEY COUNTIES. THIS CURRENT BAND LINES UP
FAIRLY WELL (ALTHOUGH SPATIALLY JUST NORTH OF) A BAND OF MID LEVEL
FG FORCING DEPICTED ON THE 00Z NAM. NAM INTENSIFIES THIS BAND
AROUND 03Z HOWEVER BY 06Z IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS INTO RAMSEY AND
NELSON COUNTIES...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT MID
LEVEL FLOW. HRRR QPF STRUGGLES TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP GOING
IN NORTHEAST ND...AND ALTHOUGH THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM
FORCING...IT SEEMS OVERLY DRY AS SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND AND ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2. WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND QPFS...ADDING CATEGORICALS THROUGH 06Z
NORTH OF THE DEVILS LAKER BASIN. EXPECTING A HIGH POP BUT MUCH
LOWER QPF SCENARIO IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MINNESOTA. HAVE
INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO AROUND 4 INCHES OF SOUTHERN TOWNER AND
NW RAMSEY. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
SWITCHED RADAR TO VCP 31...RESULTING IN BETTER COVERAGE OF LOWER
CLOUDS BY EVEN IN HIGHEST RETURNS VCNTY DVL...WE ARE NOT GETTING
ANY GROUND TRUTH. MAKES SENSE DUE TO THE DRIER AIR WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG TO DELAY
THINGS...AND WILL START OFF 00Z DRY THEN TREND TOWARD CHANCE POPS
BY 02Z. BEST FG FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND WEST...SO MAY HAVE TO
DELAY LIKELIES TO THE 04Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN
THE NORTH. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS A BIT FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS.
FOR TONIGHT...SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH NEAR A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE BEST FGEN/ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 TONIGHT...AND THE BEST THREAT FOR 1-3 INCHES
SHOULD OCCUR IN THE FAR NW FA INTO NW MN. GFK WILL BE ON THE
DIVIDING LINE TO SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION AND NOT MUCH AT ALL. THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE SNOW COVERED AND SLICK FOR THE
NORTHERN AREAS...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE WEATHER STORY. THE
PRECIP MAY START OUT AS SOME RAIN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY GO OVER TO
SNOW PER SOUNDINGS/WET BULB COOLING.
ON TUESDAY...THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE EAST WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS IN THE MORNING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN COULD MIX IN ONCE TEMPS RISE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
FOR TUE NIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
ON WED...IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
THE LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH...WITH GENERAL
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR OUR REGION.
FOR THU...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HINGE ON IF WE ARE
CLEAR OR NOT...SO WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND NOT GO
TOO COLD THU MORNING.
FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN PRETTY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXTENDED. ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND APPEARS
CONFINED TO FRIDAY..FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING A RAIN OR SNOW MIX. THEREAFTER NW FLOW AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND COOL WEEKEND WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR SATURDAY AND A BIT WARMER ON EASTER SUNDAY
WITH 40S IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. WARMER AIR WITH 500MB RIDGING WORKS
INTO THE AREA TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH MONDAYS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...LOW 50S FOR SE ND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016
GFK AND TVF SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS ADVECT IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AS A BAND OF SNOW MOVES ACROSS REGION. LIGHT SNOW HAS MADE
IT TO THE GRAND FORKS NWS OFFICE BUT WAS NOT RECORDED AT
GFK...HOWEVER AS BAND OVER NELSON CO SHIFTS EAST...STILL EXPECT SN
ON STATION. SHOULD SEE -SN AT TVF AND BJI BY 08Z HOWEVER VSBYS MAY
REMAIN VFR INITIALLY...UNTIL CIGS BEGIN TO FALL AS SN PICKS UP.
EXPECTING SOLID MVFR CIGS BY 09Z AT BOTH MN SITES. SNOW STILL NOT
EXPECTED AT FAR BUT DO THINK MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD AROUND 13Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH 06Z WED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
533 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE
EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE
STATE TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LIMITED TO FAR
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK...LIKELY
PASSING THROUGH PA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND BRINGING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY TODAY WILL
BRING TRANQUIL BUT CHILLY EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS...WITH SUNRISE
MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD STREAMING EAST FROM THE WESTERN LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA BY DAYBREAK...BUT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH 12Z WILL
CONSIST OF A VEIL OF THIN CIRRUS...ABOVE SOME SCT ALTO CU.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH TODAY...BUT OVERALL
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME QUASI-ZONAL ALLOWING MOISTURE /MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF VARYING AMOUNTS OF ALTO CU AND CIRRUS/ TO SPILL
ESE OVER INTO THE REGION FROM THE GR LAKES AND MIDWEST.
ON THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SNAKE ITS
WAY FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES REGION...EAST TO NEAR THE I-90
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE PRIMARY WEST TO SWRLY LOW-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THIS
WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL CONFINE
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF ANY LIGHT SHOWERS TO I-86 OR POINTS NORTH IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.
HOWEVER...07Z HRRR IS BONE DRY THROUGH LATE TODAY...AND THE 00Z
NAM AND 03Z SREF CONTINUE THE ABSENCE OF ANY QPF THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BE MILDER THAN MONDAY...BY 12-15 DEG F ON AVERAGE...AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST AND OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS. EXPECT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE L-M 50S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS WHERE THICKER CLOUD
COVER WILL BE PRESENT...TO THE LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS. VERTICAL MIXING UP TO AROUND 5 KFT AGL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUST POTENTIAL IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20 KT
RANGE.
MILDER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT UNDER VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID CLOUDS.
LOWS WILL A FEW TO SVRL DEG F ABOVE NORMAL...OR IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.
A FEW DEG F INCREASE IN TEMP IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION SOUTH OF STATE ROUTE 6 IN NORTHERN PENN. SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD BRUSH LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG
THE PENN/NY BORDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A MILD SW TO WEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MILD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGES LATE THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND INVOLVES 1) THE SPEED/TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE AND TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT ON
THURS- THURS NGT AND 3) PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF EASTER
WEEKEND.
A MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/GEFS IS A MAIN THEME THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. THE NAM/EC/CMC ALL SHOW VARYING DEGREE OF SPREAD (SLOWER
AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH) VS. THE GFS IN REGARDS TO THE LEAD LOW
TRACKING ENEWD FROM THE MIDWEST. A COMPROMISE/CONSENSUS SOLUTION
WAS USED IN AN ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES WHICH STILL
POINTS TO THE HIGHEST POPS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFL BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER
AND ONE-HALF INCH OCCURRING VIA NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.
A VERY BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS 850 MB TEMPS DIP TO BETWEEN -4C AND -9C OVER
THE STATE AT 06Z SAT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SE LLVL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS.
12Z/00Z EC/ECENS STILL FAVORS A DRY AND SEASONABLE EASTER WEEKEND
WITH A SW/NE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE HANGING TOUGH FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD TO NOVA SCOTIA.
THE PERSISTENTLY FAST GFS WOULD RETURN MOISTURE AND RAIN TO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY OR 24+ HOURS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF. THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AGAIN AND HEDGED HIGHER POPS TOWARD SLOWER
SOLN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE RATHER MILD/ABOVE NORMAL WITH A BUST SCENARIO LKLY TO
THE UPSIDE. NATIONAL/REGIONAL SUPERBLEND TEMPERS MAX/MIN TEMPS
FRI-MON BUT STILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE MARCH CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DROP IN TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE TEENS...AND THOUGH WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BE TO DRY FOR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG/MIST.
VFR SHOULD DOMINATE TODAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT DUE TO MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW FROM A PASSING TROUGH IN THE NW MOUNTAINS 23 TO 03Z
TOMORROW NIGHT...MAINLY AT BFD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR. BREEZY.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR...WITH MVFR AND SCT -SHRA POSS NW.
WED NIGHT - THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR SE...BUT SHRA AND RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY NW HALF. LLWS POSS THU NIGHT.
FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSS EARLY. THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
240 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE
EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE
STATE TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LIMITED TO FAR
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK...LIKELY
PASSING THROUGH PA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND BRINGING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY TODAY WILL
BRING TRANQUIL BUT CHILLY EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS...WITH MIN
TEMPS IN THE TEENS NORTH...TO LOWER AND MID 20S IN MOST OTHER
AREAS.
MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD STREAMING EAST FROM THE WESTERN LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN HAF OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK...BUT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH 12Z WILL
CONSIST OF A VEIL OF THIN CIRRUS...ABOVE SOME SCT ALTO CU.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH TODAY...BUT OVERALL
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME QUASI-ZONAL ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SPILL
OVER INTO THE REGION FROM THE GR LAKES AND MIDWEST.
ON THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN SNAKING INTO THE LOWER
LAKES FROM THE MIDWEST WHICH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO FAR
NORTHERN PA TWD DUSK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM AND 05Z HRRR ARE BONE
DRY THROUGH 00Z WED.
IT WILL BE MILDER THAN MONDAY BY 10-15 DEG ON AVERAGE AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST AND OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS. VERTICAL MIXING UP TO AROUND 5 KFT AGL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUST POTENTIAL IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20 KT
RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A MILD SW TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGES
INVOLVE 1) PLACEMENT PCPN AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR PA/NY BORDER TUE NGT-WED; 2) SPEED/TRACK OF
LOW PRESSURE AND TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT
ON THURS-THURS NGT AND 3) PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
EASTER WEEKEND.
A MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/GEFS IS A MAIN THEME THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. THE NAM/EC/CMC ALL SHOW VARYING DEGREE OF SPREAD (SLOWER
AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH) VS. THE GFS IN REGARDS TO THE LEAD LOW
TRACKING ENEWD FROM THE MIDWEST. A COMPROMISE/CONSENSUS SOLUTION
WAS USED IN AN ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES WHICH STILL
POINTS TO THE HIGHEST POPS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
EC/ECENS STILL FAVORS A DRY AND SEASONABLE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRES MIGRATING OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND OFF THE ECOAST
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERSISTENTLY FAST GFS WOULD RETURN MOISTURE
AND RAIN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY OR 24+ HOURS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF.
THEREFORE TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AGAIN AND HEDGED HIGHER
POPS TOWARD SLOWER SOLN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE RATHER MILD/ABOVE NORMAL WITH A BUST SCENARIO LKLY TO
THE UPSIDE. NATIONAL/REGIONAL SUPERBLEND TEMPERS MAX/MIN TEMPS
FRI-MON BUT STILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE MARCH CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DROP IN TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE TEENS...AND THOUGH WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BE TO DRY FOR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG/MIST.
VFR SHOULD DOMINATE TODAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT DUE TO MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW FROM A PASSING TROUGH IN THE NW MOUNTAINS 23 TO 03Z
TOMORROW NIGHT...MAINLY AT BFD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR. BREEZY.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR...WITH MVFR AND SCT -SHRA POSS NW.
WED NIGHT - THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR SE...BUT SHRA AND RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY NW HALF. LLWS POSS THU NIGHT.
FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSS EARLY. THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
951 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Temperatures already reaching the lower 50s over parts of the
forecast area this morning, with southerly winds gusting over 30
mph. Latest HRRR guidance continues to suggest the highest winds
will be over the southeast CWA where the wind advisory is in
place. The grids generally had this trend on track, with little
change besides the usual hourly tweaks. However, significant
updates were done to the dew point grids, lowering them several
degrees. The impacts of this will be addressed in the Fire Weather
section below.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
08z/3am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, while a 1000mb low
develops over South Dakota. The pressure gradient between these two
features will continue to tighten today, resulting in strong
southerly winds. Forecast soundings suggest sustained winds of 15
to 20 mph across much of the area, with 20 to 25 mph winds focused
along/south of the I-70 corridor where gradient will be the
tightest. 08z Regional VAD wind profilers show 925mb winds of 55
to 60 mph and some of this momentum will mix to the surface once
the nocturnal inversion is broken between 15z and 18z. While
Bufkit momentum transfer shows gusts just shy of advisory criteria
across the SE KILX CWA, have decided to issue a Wind Advisory for
locations along/south of a Paris to Shelbyville line this
afternoon where gusts could reach 45 mph. Due to the strong
southerly flow and plenty of sunshine, high temperatures will soar
well into the 60s, with a few lower 70s from Springfield westward.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
00z Mar 22 models have come into much better agreement concerning
the mid-week storm system, with the NAM/GEM/ECMWF all tracking low
pressure across north-central Illinois by 12z Thu. The GFS remains
about 6-12 hours faster and has been ignored due to its recent fast
bias. Large upper trough currently evident on latest water vapor
imagery along the West Coast will cross the Rockies and help the
Plains low deepen over northern Kansas by 12z Wed. The low will
then track E/NE into Illinois by Thursday morning. A baroclinic
zone extending eastward from the low will remain to the north of the
KILX CWA, generally along the I-80 corridor. As a result, all of
central and southeast Illinois will remain in the warm sector on
Wednesday. Due to only weak forcing and a lack of deep-layer
moisture, do not think there will be much precip on Wednesday. Have
carried just slight chance PoPs across most of the area, with chance
PoPs confined to the north in closer proximity to the front. As the
low approaches from the west, strengthening synoptic lift and
increasing moisture will lead to widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms Wednesday night Following the slower model consensus,
decided to linger likely PoPs through Thursday morning before
rapidly decreasing rain chances by afternoon. With the low exiting
the region, a few rain or snow showers may persist into Thursday
evening before ending overnight.
After that, cool/dry weather is expected for both Friday and
Saturday before unsettled conditions return early next week. Models
are in very poor agreement at this point, with the ECMWF and GEM
showing a progressive wave moving through the area on Sunday, while
the ECMWF is much more amplified with a slow-moving closed low that
could bring precip Saturday night through Monday night. With such a
high degree of model spread, did not make many changes beyond
Saturday...with low chance PoPs coming back into the picture for
both Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
VFR conditions will prevail across the area through this forecast
period. The main forecast issue will be with the gusty south to
southwest winds today and another threat for non-convective LLWS
tonight. Mainly scattered to broken cirrus at around 20000 ft AGL
today with south to southwest winds of 20 to 25 kts with gusts
around 35 kts possible along and east of I-55 which would include
SPI, DEC, BMI and CMI. Forecast soundings and time height cross
sections indicate a decrease in wind speeds in the 1500 to 2000
foot layer this evening, with an increase in southwest flow at or
above 2500 feet later tonight into Wednesday morning. Borderline
LLWS at this point so will hold off including in this set of TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 951 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Have lowered dew points by several degrees from the earlier grids.
Latest observations generally show lower-mid 30s over the area,
with the 30s dew points all the way upstream into southern
Oklahoma. Southeast half of the forecast area should see a fair
amount of mixing with the thicker high clouds covering the
northern half of the state, which would help the air stay drier.
With high temperatures forecast to reach the lower 70s over west
central Illinois and winds still progged to gust to around 30 mph
at times, relative humidity values expected to fall to around 30%
from Decatur- Lincoln westward. Red flag conditions will be
borderline during the midday and early afternoon in these areas.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ056-057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1056 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated 1056 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Current forecast remains on track in the short term. We did lower
dewpoints slightly in the east given current observations. We
adjusted dewpoints more toward the latest HRRR runs which allows
dewpoints to drop into the lower 20s this afternoon. Afternoon
relative humidity values may drop into the 23-29% range for a time
out near the I-75 corridor. In addition gusty southwest winds of 15
to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30-35 MPH will combine with the low
humidity to produce heightened wildfire conditions across the
region. We will continue to coordinate with local forestry
officials to see if any additional headlines will be needed later
this morning and into the afternoon.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2016
The short term will be dominated by warm and dry southerly surface
flow as we sit between high pressure moving off the southeast coast
and low pressure organizing over the central Plains. The models do
print out some light QPF Wednesday over the northwest LMK CWA but
this may be overdone. Atmospheric cross-sections show only shallow
moisture and MOS PoPs are mostly in the single digits over much of
the CWA. So, after chatting with PAH, will have a dry forecast for
Wednesday.
A tight surface gradient and abundant insolation (especially today)
will lead to windy conditions throughout the short term. Winds will
gust to 30, possibly 35, mph this afternoon, and into the 25-30mph
range Wednesday afternoon. We`ll get close to Wind Advisory this
afternoon. For now, with the forecast below advisory thresholds,
will stick with an SPS.
Dry air and turbulent mixing on the soundings suggest dew points
this afternoon bottoming out from the upper 20s from Lake Cumberland
to the Blue Grass Army Depot...to the middle and upper 30s towards
Hoosier National Forest. This plus the wind gusts and low fuel
moisture will lead to a heightened fire danger today, especially in
the Blue Grass and Lake Cumberland regions. We`ll coordinate with
fire officials and surrounding NWS offices later this morning to
determine the need for any headlines.
Higher dew points streaming from the Gulf into the Arklatex today
will finally make it to central Kentucky and southern Indiana
tomorrow, helping to slightly lower fire risk. Still, winds will be
gusty and fuel moisture levels low, so caution will need to be
exercised.
High temperatures today will be in the middle and upper 60s. Temps
will stay up tonight ahead of the approaching Plains system and with
southerly breezes continuing. Lows should be around 50. On Wednesday
southerly flow will continue and a cold front will be nearing from
the west, but increasing clouds will offset temps a bit, so will
once again forecast highs in the middle and upper 60s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Surface low pressure near Kansas City Wednesday evening will proceed
to Chicago by Thursday morning and Lake Erie by that evening,
pulling its cold front through here on Thursday. Gulf moisture will
be plentiful and widespread showers are expected late Wednesday
night through Thursday afternoon. Instability will be weak and
elevated with this system. Thunder will be a possibility but severe
weather looks unlikely so far.
With the cold front approaching, widespread clouds overhead, and
southerly winds keeping up overnight, went above guidance for lows
Wednesday night in the 55-60 degree range. Not much recovery on
Thursday, though, with clouds and rain.
The cold front and associated upper trof axis will move through
Thursday night, bringing an end to the showers. High pressure will
provide us with dry and pleasant weather Friday and Saturday, though
the mornings will be cool. Some patchy frost could form in sheltered
spots, but the wind may stay up just enough Friday morning and
temperatures may stay just warm enough Saturday morning to keep
frost from becoming widespread or heavy.
The next upper trof will dig into the Plains late in the week and
approach us by Sunday/Monday, causing showers and a few
thunderstorms to return to the forecast for the second half of the
weekend and the first part of the new week.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 615 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Tightening pressure gradient and a well mixed boundary layer later
this morning through the afternoon will lead to sustained south
winds 15 to 19 knots with gusts 25 to near 30 knots at all TAF
sites. Otherwise, skies will be mainly clear outside of
few/scattered high cirrus overhead. For tonight, winds will slacken
some but remain steady 10 to 12 knots. A strengthening low-level jet
at about 2000-2500 feet late tonight into Wednesday morning may
warrant LLWS mention in the TAF but will hold for now until
confidence is higher.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......13
Aviation.......ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
726 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT LKS BTWN GENERAL TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA/NE CONUS AND
AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF MID/HI CLDS
STREAMING INTO THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF A SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE NRN
PLAINS/ACCOMPANYING WAA...BUT VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL
RAOB HAS SLOWED/LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF BAND OF WAA PCPN STRETCHING
ACRS NCENTRAL MN TOWARD FAR WRN LK SUP DESPITE A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT SHOWN BEST ON THE 285-290K ISENTROPIC SFCS /H85-7/ OVER THE
AREA AND ACCOMPANYING BAND OF SHARPER FGEN. THIS VERY DRY AIR IS
EVIDENT ALSO ON THE 00Z YPL/GRB/APX RAOBS AND HAS ALLOWED NOTHING
MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES INTO THE CWA AS OF 08Z DESITE THE THICKENING
CLDS/SHARPENING FGEN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/FGEN FCST TO IMPACT THE CWA AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW
MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO SHEAR OUT AS IT
HEADS TO THE E IN FAST WNW FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THIS TREND AND
ABUNDANT DRY AIR ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN...MODELS SHOW PRES
GRADIENT ON THE 285-290K ISENTROPIC SFC TIGHTENING OVER THE CWA AS
AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN IN THE H85-75 LYR CROSSES THE AREA THIS MRNG
BEFORE EXITING IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE PRES/THERMAL GRADIENT IS FCST
TO TIGHTEN...EXPECT SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SHOWING
BAND OF SOME -SN DVLPG OVER MAINLY THE CNTRL CWA...WHICH WL BE UNDER
THE BAND OF SHARPER FGEN. FCST SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THE 2-3G/KG
RANGE WOULD SUPPORT UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SN DURING THE 6-9HR
PERIOD OF FORCING...BUT IMPACT OF LLVL DRY AIR AS WELL AS MARGINAL
ADDITIONAL DYANMIC SUPPORT RELATED TO THE SHEARING SHRTWV SUGGEST SN
TOTALS WL BE MAINLY UP TO 2 INCHES. IN FACT...THE WPC FCST SHOWS
ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SN UNDER THE FGEN BAND. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE UPSLOPING ENE WINDS
MAY AID LLVL MOISTENING/SN AMOUNTS. OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL... FCST
SDNGS SUG ANY PCPN WL BE AT LEAST MIXED WITH RA. BUT MANY OF THE
MODELS SHOW NO PCPN FALLING IN THIS AREA ANYWAY...SO WL PAINT THE
LOWER POPS IN THIS AREA. ONE OTHER IMPACT OF THE LLVL DRY AIR WL TO
SHARPEN THE NRN EDGE OF THE POPS SO THAT THE NRN KEWEENAW MAY SEE
LTL PCPN/SN AS WELL. AFTER THE SHARPER FGEN EXITS THIS AFTN...EXPECT
DIMINISHING POPS. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAVE SHOWN THE PCPN MAY TAPER TO
DRIZZLE...BUT CONCERNED THE DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS MAY LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. CONFINED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE TO MAINLY THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL.
TNGT...WITH DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING DOMINATING...EXPECT
A GENERALLY DRY FCST. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME LGT PCPN
PERSISTING OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE NNE
FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF HI PRES BLDG INTO NW ONTARIO...BUT DRYNESS
OF THE AIRMASS TO THE N FAVORS THE DRIER PCPN FREE GUIDANCE FOR THIS
AREA. BUT WL HOLD ON TO SOME LO CHC POPS FOR SN OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...WHICH WL BE NEAR THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES OF LO PRES MOVING ALONG STALLED SFC FNT OVER
THE LOWER GRT LKS. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLRG ASSOCIATED WITH
THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FM THE N...TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS AT
SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS DURING THE NGT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
ALL FOCUS REMAINS ON A STRONG EARLY SPRING STORM CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THE 00Z
GUIDANCE PROVIDES SOME RESOLUTION IN THE ONGOING DIFFERENCES WITHIN
THE SUITE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
NORTHWARD SOLUTION...BUT HAS TRENDED A TOUCH SOUTHWARD.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH...BUT MADE A
NORTHWARD SHIFT. THE CANADIAN GEM FALLS BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE CAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IS ACTUALLY QUITE SUBTLE...AND OCCURS OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT. FOR THE GFS...THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES ALLOWS FOR
PHASING WITH A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO BEGIN EARLIER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF ATTEMPTS TO CUT OFF THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN KANSAS. IN REALITY...THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN HEAVY SNOW (GFS) AND LITTLE SNOW (ECMWF) FOR MOST OF UPPER
MI IS HINGING ON THE ABILITY OF THE WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO
PICK UP THE APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH...WITH LESS THAN TWO HUNDRED
MILES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE (NORTHERN CO FOR THE GFS VS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CO FOR THE
ECMWF TONIGHT).
SIMPLY PUT...THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MILWAUKEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT PLACEMENT AND TIMING...BOTH TIED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES...REMAIN IN QUESTION.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MI WILL SEE WARNING-LEVEL CONDITIONS WITH
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG NE WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH A LOT OF DAILY TRAVEL TYPICALLY OCCURRING
BETWEEN MENOMINEE AND GREEN BAY...FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
MENOMINEE COUNTY FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER IMPACTS. AS FOR THE NEXT
TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH...DICKINSON...DELTA...AND SOUTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR AT LEAST MODERATE
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ADDS A LIMITING FACTOR ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SNOW. GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS...THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD...BUT WANTED TO
REMAIN MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE MODEL ISSUES.
THE WATCH FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY WAS ISSUED FROM 21Z WED TO 18Z
THU...WITH THE START TIME ENCOMPASSING THE ONSET OF SNOW FOR
THE EVENING COMMUTE.
BEYOND THU...SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF COLDER AIR
AND A COUPLE ROUNDS OF MIXED PRECIP TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SPECIFICS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
A BAND OF SN TO THE NE OF A STNRY FNT IN THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THIS MRNG...BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THAT
SITE. IMPACT OF DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE UPR LKS WL LIMIT CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT IWD/CMX...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WL OCCUR AT THOSE
PLACES AT LEAST OCNLY. ALTHOUGH THE PCPN WL DIMINISH THIS AFTN...
SOME LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER FOR A TIME UNTIL THE LLVL
NE FLOW TAPS ENUF DRY AIR TO BRING A RETURN OF VFR CIGS. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS RIDGING
SETTLES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY.
WINDS BECOME 20 TO 30 KNOTS FOR ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED EVENING
THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH GALES GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
EAST HALF. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THU
NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS ARRIVE AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FRI. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE
EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE
STATE TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LIMITED TO FAR
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK...LIKELY
PASSING THROUGH PA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND BRINGING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY TODAY WILL
BRING TRANQUIL BUT CHILLY EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS...WITH SUNRISE
MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD STREAMING EAST FROM THE WESTERN LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA BY DAYBREAK...BUT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH 12Z WILL
CONSIST OF A VEIL OF THIN CIRRUS...ABOVE SOME SCT ALTO CU.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH TODAY...BUT OVERALL
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME QUASI-ZONAL ALLOWING MOISTURE /MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF VARYING AMOUNTS OF ALTO CU AND CIRRUS/ TO SPILL
ESE OVER INTO THE REGION FROM THE GR LAKES AND MIDWEST.
ON THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SNAKE ITS
WAY FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES REGION...EAST TO NEAR THE I-90
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE PRIMARY WEST TO SWRLY LOW-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THIS
WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL CONFINE
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF ANY LIGHT SHOWERS TO I-86 OR POINTS NORTH IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.
HOWEVER...07Z HRRR IS BONE DRY THROUGH LATE TODAY...AND THE 00Z
NAM AND 03Z SREF CONTINUE THE ABSENCE OF ANY QPF THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BE MILDER THAN MONDAY...BY 12-15 DEG F ON AVERAGE...AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST AND OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS. EXPECT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE L-M 50S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS WHERE THICKER CLOUD
COVER WILL BE PRESENT...TO THE LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS. VERTICAL MIXING UP TO AROUND 5 KFT AGL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUST POTENTIAL IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20 KT
RANGE.
MILDER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT UNDER VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID CLOUDS.
LOWS WILL A FEW TO SVRL DEG F ABOVE NORMAL...OR IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.
A FEW DEG F INCREASE IN TEMP IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION SOUTH OF STATE ROUTE 6 IN NORTHERN PENN. SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD BRUSH LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG
THE PENN/NY BORDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A MILD SW TO WEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MILD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGES LATE THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND INVOLVES 1) THE SPEED/TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE AND TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT ON
THURS- THURS NGT AND 3) PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF EASTER
WEEKEND.
A MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/GEFS IS A MAIN THEME THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. THE NAM/EC/CMC ALL SHOW VARYING DEGREE OF SPREAD (SLOWER
AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH) VS. THE GFS IN REGARDS TO THE LEAD LOW
TRACKING ENEWD FROM THE MIDWEST. A COMPROMISE/CONSENSUS SOLUTION
WAS USED IN AN ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES WHICH STILL
POINTS TO THE HIGHEST POPS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFL BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER
AND ONE-HALF INCH OCCURRING VIA NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.
A VERY BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS 850 MB TEMPS DIP TO BETWEEN -4C AND -9C OVER
THE STATE AT 06Z SAT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SE LLVL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS.
12Z/00Z EC/ECENS STILL FAVORS A DRY AND SEASONABLE EASTER WEEKEND
WITH A SW/NE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE HANGING TOUGH FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD TO NOVA SCOTIA.
THE PERSISTENTLY FAST GFS WOULD RETURN MOISTURE AND RAIN TO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY OR 24+ HOURS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF. THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AGAIN AND HEDGED HIGHER POPS TOWARD SLOWER
SOLN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE RATHER MILD/ABOVE NORMAL WITH A BUST SCENARIO LKLY TO
THE UPSIDE. NATIONAL/REGIONAL SUPERBLEND TEMPERS MAX/MIN TEMPS
FRI-MON BUT STILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE MARCH CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL PA TODAY. AS SW FLOW
INCREASES TODAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME A BIT BREEZY AS
SURFACE FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 10-20 MPH
ACOESS MAINLY WESTERN HALF. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY.
FAST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...WITH LLWS LIKELY AS 850MB FLOW
REMAINS BETWEEN 40-50KTS. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALSO HOLD AROUND
5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT...ESP NW HALF AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THERE WILL
BE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ALONG THE NY BORDER AS A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE GLAKES...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT.
CIG RESTRICTIONS BEGIN TO WORK INTO NW MTNS WED NIGHT INTO THU
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LATE WEEK
STORM. SHOWERS LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY THU...WITH A LITTLE
THUNDER POSS.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MVFR AND SCT -SHRA POSS NW. OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR.
WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...SHRA AND RESTRICTIONS LIKELY NW
HALF...MAINLY VFR SE. SOME THUNDER POSS THU. LLWS POSS THU NIGHT.
FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSS EARLY. THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1024 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER MOIST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RETURNING LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...TEMPS STILL APPEAR TO BE RISING SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST VALUES. RAP IS THE SHORT TERM MODEL
THAT HAS BEST CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND...SO I BLENDED IN A PORTION
OF THIS THRU THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ARE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER
PARTICULARLY IN THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...ON THE OTHER HAND IT
APPEARS TO BE ACCOUNTING FOR TOO MUCH MIXING...DROPPING OUT DEWPTS
APPRECIABLY MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. I STILL THINK THE UPDATE
MADE EARLIER THIS MORNING...WHICH SUGGESTS MODEST DEWPT DECLINES
DUE TO MIXING...LOOKS GOOD IN LIGHT OF INCREASING MOIST SW FLOW. RH
NOW BOTTOMS OUT NEAR 20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WE SHOULD
FIND OUT SOON FROM NC/SC FIRE AGENCIES REGARDING NEED FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.
AS OF 300 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES TODAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST OFF THE FL
COAST. SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ATOP THE CWFA...RESULTING
IN A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPS AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN THE MTNS AND
MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO LATE
MARCH NORMALS. THE WARMER TEMPS COMBINED WITH STILL LOW DEWPTS
WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY CRITICAL RH FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
(SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW).
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LLVL THICKNESSES AND
LIGHT SWLY SFC WINDS SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND HENCE
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOWS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL (UPR 30S TO MID 40S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT...A CLOSED 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PROFILES
REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT AND PHASE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...IT WILL SEND SEVERAL FORCING
MECHANISMS EASTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THURSDAY EVENING AS A 120 KT UPPER JETLET SLIDES
EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DEEP LAYER Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING.
FINALLY...THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NARROW BUT DECENTLY STRONG LINE
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE LATE
DAY/EVENING TIMING COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR BETTER INSTABILITY IF
DEWPOINTS SUFFICIENTLY REBOUND THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER TO THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD APPROACH 40 KT IN THE BEST PRE/FRONTAL WARM ADVECTION THU
AFTERNOON...BUT NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE VERY BACKED.
THIS SETUP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW
LINE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL BULK SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES GENERATING QLCS FAVORING SHERB
VALUES ABOVE 1 BY 00Z FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH ON FRIDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL PROFILES DRYING OUT.
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN STEADILY
INCREASE FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. THE OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS MUCH
FASTER WITH A SYSTEM MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A MUCH SLOWER CLOSED
SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST. THE GEFS MEAN REMAINS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS. A CONSENSUS BLEND WILL MEAN A MAINLY DRY SATURDAY
WITH TEMPS A TOUCH BELOW CLIMO IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A TOUCH ABOVE IN
THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT.
WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY...WE WILL FEATURE A WEAK UPGLIDE PATTERN
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WITH THE NOSE OF LINGERING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WEAK IN
SITU OR HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
JUST SHADE TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS AT THIS POINT AND
ALLOW POP FOR RAIN/SHOWERS TO SLOWLY EXPAND. IT IS ENTIRELY UNCLEAR
WHETHER MONDAY WILL BE POST FRONTAL LIKE THE GFS OR PRE FRONTAL LIKE
THE ECMWF...OR EXHIBIT A DAYTIME FROPA LIKE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. WILL
THUS KEEP LOW END SHOWER CHANCES GOING IN LINE WITH NCEP GUIDANCE
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
VFR...WITH GENERALLY SKC AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY THRU THE PERIOD...AS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE
OUT OF THE SW. A FEW LOW-END GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING
PEAK MIXING IN THE AFTN...THEN WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AROUND SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THRU WEDNESDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY...AND CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...SETTING UP INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW ATOP THE REGION TODAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WHILE DWPTS MIX
INTO THE MID TO UPR 20S. THIS WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES FALLING TO
NEAR 20 PCT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN. THE LATEST FCST HAS AT
LEAST 4 HOURS OF CRITICAL RH IN THE NE GA PIEDMONT COUNTIES...AND
CLOSE TO THAT IN RABUN/HABERSHAM. THE 10 HR FUELS HAVE DROPPED
TO 8 PCT OR LOWER YESTERDAY...AND SO WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR NE GA TODAY. AS FOR THE CAROLINAS...THE
RH LOOKS CRITICAL...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW RED
FLAG. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL COORDINATE WITH LAND MANAGERS ON
FUEL MOISTURES/CONDITIONS FOR ANY NEEDED PRODUCTS.
ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND PERMIT
DEWPOINTS TO FURTHER REBOUND...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 70S IN MANY AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW CRITICAL
RH VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT TO DEVELOP. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH COULD GENERATE A FEW LOW END GUSTS AS WELL. ANOTHER FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT COULD BE NEEDED FOR NE GA OR BEYOND FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK
FIRE WEATHER...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
308 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...
221 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
DESPITE CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S ACROSS
VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SINKS SOUTH.
AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES OVER KANSAS.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL SINK BY DAWN. THINKING THE FRONT WILL DIP INTO
NORTHERN IL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BE AROUND THE I-88 CORRIDOR BY DAWN.
WHILE THE WHOLE AREA WILL BE CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...OTHER CONDITIONS
WILL VARY ALONG THE FRONT. AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE LOWS
IN THE LOW 40S TO THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE ALONG
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS TO 15 MPH. WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS WILL LIE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SO CONDITIONS MAY DIFFER FROM THE CURRENT
FORECAST DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP.
FOR RAIN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE FEATURE
SATURATION THROUGH THE FREEZING LEVEL AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF OMEGA.
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN/DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE FRONT/I-88
ESPECIALLY AFTER 4AM CDT. SOUNDINGS FURTHER SOUTH SATURATE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MINOR OMEGA VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING.
CAPPED POPS TO THE CHANCE RANGE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE DUE TO A
LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN FORCING AND THE FRONTS LOCATION.
ALSO EXPECTING FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE INVERSION FORMS.
GUIDANCE FEATURES FOG FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE AND
THINKING SOME OF THE FOG WILL MOVE OVER LAND WITH THE EAST WINDS.
THE DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND MOIST CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN FOG.
NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
234 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG LAKE ENHANCED FRONT WILL LIKELY BISECT THE AREA WED
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SETTING UP CLOSE TO I-80 AND LIKELY A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NORTH OF
THE FRONT BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE CHILLY LAKE WILL
RESULT IN A VERY STRONG AND SHALLOW INVERSION...BENEATH WHICH
MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED RESULTING IN A LOW OVERCAST. AS
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT CLIMB INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...THE
MARINE LAYER DISPLACING THAT MOIST AIR COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY
DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BLEEDING INLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT
NORTH OF THE FRONT. HIGHS TOMORROW NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN
THE 40S...THOUGH POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE NE IL
LAKEFRONT RANGING INTO THE 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
GUIDANCE ALL HAS LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY SUPPORT MORE OF A
DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS LIGHT RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER ABOVE THE
THICK STRATUS DECK. STEEP LAPSE RATES DO EXIST ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION...HOWEVER BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING LOOKS TO SET UP TO
OUR NORTH OVER WI. SOUTH OF THE FRONT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK SMALL
AND HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME THOUGH PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH.
STRONG FRONT MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTH SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT BATTLING
AGAINST THE COLD LAKE AS SURFACE LOW RIDES THE FRONT INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. AGAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
FOG...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOULD SEE AN
UPTICK IN PRECIP NORTH OF THE FRONT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR PERHAPS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM THURSDAY USHERING IN COLDER AIR TO AREAS THAT MADE IT
INTO THE WARM SECTOR...AND PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF CHILLY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SOME
WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BIT OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT CHANCES LOOK LOW AND KEPT
ACCUMS OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEXT SYSTEM
ALREADY RESULTING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AND RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF VARY IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY HANGS BACK IN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WITH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO LOWER THAN AVG FORECAST CONFIDENCE. DOES APPEAR TO BE
SOME AGREEMENT IN THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME RAIN THIS WEEKEND BEING
IN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES WOULD
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK IF ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVING THE TROUGH OUT QUICKER. GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS FROM THE BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
DRY...VFR...AND BREEZY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
EASE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED VFR BKN SKIES. THE FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF MDW BUT
NORTH OF GYY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND STRETCH BOTH EAST AND WEST.
ONLY HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE FRONT...SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND THEN LIGHT ALONG THE FRONT.
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL SPREAD SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. THINKING THE
STEADIER RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT WHILE AREAS ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE DRIZZLE VS STEADY RAIN. BOTH
AREAS SHOULD ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG OF 2-3SM...PERHAPS LOWER.
THINKING THE LOWER VSBY WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE AS LAKE FOG SHOULD
FORM AND MOVE INLAND. THINKING RFD SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VSBY DUE TO ITS DISTANCE FROM THE LAKE AND STRONGER WINDS.
OVERALL...VSBY CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MVFR OR LOWER VSBY...MEDIUM-
LOW THAT WHAT IS IN THE TAFS IS LOW ENOUGH. HAVE THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR LOWER CIGS ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
234 PM CDT
FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD COMING UP ON THE LAKE. DEEPENING LOW OVER THE
PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW OVER ALL BUT
FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETTER CHANCE OF GALES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT NOW NORTHERN OPEN LAKE SO HAVE DELAYED START TIME
OF THE GALE WATCH A BIT. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS A PERIOD OF STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND TIGHT GRADIENT WOULD SUPPORT PERIOD OF
NORTHERLY GALES...PERHAPS HIGH END GALES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE GALE WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AS WELL AS THE OPEN LAKE.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 5 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
307 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Earlier mid and high clouds over the northern CWA has been lifting a
bit northward this afternoon, but plenty more are advancing across
Missouri and will overspread central Illinois through early evening.
Wind gusts over 30 mph are becoming more common east of I-55 and the
highest gusts the last several hours have been from Bloomington to
Champaign, where they are now reaching 40 mph as of 2 pm. Over the
Wind Advisory area of southeast Illinois, the gusts have been a bit
slower to ramp up, but gusts to around 35 mph are more common. This
is below advisory criteria, but the RAP and HRRR suggest a bit more
increase the remainder of the afternoon, so will let the advisory
ride for now.
Latest surface map showing frontal boundary draped from northern
Lake Michigan into central Iowa and into the central Plains. While
the boundary will sag southward tonight, it is progged by all the
models to only reach about the I-80 corridor by sunrise, with most
of the models keeping any precipitation near or north of it. Have
maintained some 20% PoP`s late tonight north and west of Peoria, as
the GFS and RAP hint at a bit of development toward sunrise, but
general thought is that the night should largely remain dry. Few
changes made to low temperatures, with lower 50s prevailing over the
entire forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
One more breezy and unseasonably warm day is anticipated across
central and southeast Illinois on Wednesday. It will be dry for the
most part as well. The models have slowed a bit on the passage of an
approaching storm system, with the GFS slowing most considerably and
now close to matching the bulk of the other models. Have removed
thunderstorm mention from the daytime hours Wednesday. With the
slightly slower track of the system, the instability axis ahead of
the system`s cold front does not reach the forecast area until well
into the evening. Also, forecast soundings suggest strong capping in
place until just ahead of the front. Have maintained high PoPs
through most of Wednesday night, and kept thunderstorm chances in
place until FROPA (late Wednesday night into midday Thursday). The
precipitation associated with the system should pull east of the
area before temperatures fall far enough to support much in the way
of snow.
Cooler temperatures, but still near normal for late March, will
surge into the area to finish the week. The week should finish up
fairly quiet weather-wise as well, although a frontal system
approaching by late Saturday will bring rain chances back into the
area. While some spread still exists, model guidance is starting to
agree on a more progressive front, which would result in
precipitation chances pulling out by Sunday night. However, given
the lingering uncertainty/spread, left low PoPs in place into
Monday. If the progressive front suggested by the latest model runs
persists, Sunday night/Monday will end up dry.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Main concern in the short term will be with the winds. Gusts
currently ranging from 25-30 knots at the TAF sites, with a bit
higher speeds at times near KBMI/KCMI. Strongest winds expected
through about 00Z. Strong low level jet will keep the gusts
continuing much of the night from about KBMI-KDEC eastward, but
some settling of the wind is expected for a time further west. VFR
conditions to prevail during this time.
Looking further out, some MVFR ceilings will push southward
Wednesday morning from a frontal boundary that will be draped
over northern Illinois. Currently thinking KBMI and maybe KPIA
will be impacted by mid-late morning, but most of the area will
likely see them arrive around midday or a bit later. Gusty south
winds expected again Wednesday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ056-057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1224 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Temperatures already reaching the lower 50s over parts of the
forecast area this morning, with southerly winds gusting over 30
mph. Latest HRRR guidance continues to suggest the highest winds
will be over the southeast CWA where the wind advisory is in
place. The grids generally had this trend on track, with little
change besides the usual hourly tweaks. However, significant
updates were done to the dew point grids, lowering them several
degrees. The impacts of this will be addressed in the Fire Weather
section below.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
08z/3am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, while a 1000mb low
develops over South Dakota. The pressure gradient between these two
features will continue to tighten today, resulting in strong
southerly winds. Forecast soundings suggest sustained winds of 15
to 20 mph across much of the area, with 20 to 25 mph winds focused
along/south of the I-70 corridor where gradient will be the
tightest. 08z Regional VAD wind profilers show 925mb winds of 55
to 60 mph and some of this momentum will mix to the surface once
the nocturnal inversion is broken between 15z and 18z. While
Bufkit momentum transfer shows gusts just shy of advisory criteria
across the SE KILX CWA, have decided to issue a Wind Advisory for
locations along/south of a Paris to Shelbyville line this
afternoon where gusts could reach 45 mph. Due to the strong
southerly flow and plenty of sunshine, high temperatures will soar
well into the 60s, with a few lower 70s from Springfield westward.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
00z Mar 22 models have come into much better agreement concerning
the mid-week storm system, with the NAM/GEM/ECMWF all tracking low
pressure across north-central Illinois by 12z Thu. The GFS remains
about 6-12 hours faster and has been ignored due to its recent fast
bias. Large upper trough currently evident on latest water vapor
imagery along the West Coast will cross the Rockies and help the
Plains low deepen over northern Kansas by 12z Wed. The low will
then track E/NE into Illinois by Thursday morning. A baroclinic
zone extending eastward from the low will remain to the north of the
KILX CWA, generally along the I-80 corridor. As a result, all of
central and southeast Illinois will remain in the warm sector on
Wednesday. Due to only weak forcing and a lack of deep-layer
moisture, do not think there will be much precip on Wednesday. Have
carried just slight chance PoPs across most of the area, with chance
PoPs confined to the north in closer proximity to the front. As the
low approaches from the west, strengthening synoptic lift and
increasing moisture will lead to widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms Wednesday night Following the slower model consensus,
decided to linger likely PoPs through Thursday morning before
rapidly decreasing rain chances by afternoon. With the low exiting
the region, a few rain or snow showers may persist into Thursday
evening before ending overnight.
After that, cool/dry weather is expected for both Friday and
Saturday before unsettled conditions return early next week. Models
are in very poor agreement at this point, with the ECMWF and GEM
showing a progressive wave moving through the area on Sunday, while
the ECMWF is much more amplified with a slow-moving closed low that
could bring precip Saturday night through Monday night. With such a
high degree of model spread, did not make many changes beyond
Saturday...with low chance PoPs coming back into the picture for
both Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Main concern in the short term will be with the winds. Gusts
currently ranging from 25-30 knots at the TAF sites, with a bit
higher speeds at times near KBMI/KCMI. Strongest winds expected
through about 00Z. Strong low level jet will keep the gusts
continuing much of the night from about KBMI-KDEC eastward, but
some settling of the wind is expected for a time further west. VFR
conditions to prevail during this time.
Looking further out, some MVFR ceilings will push southward
Wednesday morning from a frontal boundary that will be draped
over northern Illinois. Currently thinking KBMI and maybe KPIA
will be impacted by mid-late morning, but most of the area will
likely see them arrive around midday or a bit later. Gusty south
winds expected again Wednesday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 951 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Have lowered dew points by several degrees from the earlier grids.
Latest observations generally show lower-mid 30s over the area,
with the 30s dew points all the way upstream into southern
Oklahoma. Southeast half of the forecast area should see a fair
amount of mixing with the thicker high clouds covering the
northern half of the state, which would help the air stay drier.
With high temperatures forecast to reach the lower 70s over west
central Illinois and winds still progged to gust to around 30 mph
at times, relative humidity values expected to fall to around 30%
from Decatur- Lincoln westward. Red flag conditions will be
borderline during the midday and early afternoon in these areas.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ056-057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
FIRE WEATHER...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
237 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
...Updated Short term and Long term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
Tonight a cold front will remain nearly stationary along the
Nebraska border as a surface trough of low pressure/dryline moves
east across western Kansas. Lows tonight will be similar to last
night and range from the lower 40s in west central Kansas to the
lower 50s in south central Kansas.
On Wednesday an area of low pressure at the surface will deepen
as an upper low storm system lifts northeast from southern
Colorado into western Kansas early in the day. Given the
strengthening surface pressure gradient along with strong winds
aloft mixing down to the surface the winds across western Kansas
will be increasing into the 30 to 40 mph range by the early
afternoon. The strongest winds will occur during the mid to late
afternoon as a strong cold front crosses western Kansas. Behind
this cold front models suggest sustained winds of 35 to near 40
mph with gusts of around 55 mph. These speeds are just below High
Wind Warning criteria, but given the potential of these strong
winds being slightly stronger late Wednesday will issue a High
Wind Watch for Wednesday afternoon.
In addition to the strong winds falling afternoon temperatures
can be expected behind this cold front as clouds, cold air
advection and light precipitation develops. Initially this
precipitation will be in the form of rain but as temperatures fall
a mix of rain or snow will develop by late day/early evening in
north central Kansas. All snow will then develop early Wednesday
night across west central and north central Kansas with a period
of steady snow possible for a few hours. Snow accumulations of 1
to near 2 inches will be possible along and north of the I-70
corridor before the snow ends around midnight. Strong winds early
Wednesday evening will also create reduced visibilities due to
blowing snow.
Prior to the onset of precipitation the strong winds is expected
to produce a period of blowing dust Wednesday afternoon. Some
reduction in visibilities is expected due to this blowing dust.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday) ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE
MAR 22 2016
On Thursday as the upper level storm system tracks northeast into
the Western Great Lakes Region a northwesterly flow will be
developing across the central Rockies. Northwest winds at 10 to 20
mph will back more to the west southwest during the day as a
surface ridge axis moves into central Kansas and a trough of low
pressure at the surface begins to develop[ along the lee of the
Rockies. 900mb to 850mb temperatures will begin to warm during the
day, mainly near the Colorado border. Given 900mb to 850mb
temperatures at 00z Friday the highs on Thursday are expected to
range from the low 50s in north central Kansas to the upper 50s in
far western Kansas.
900mb to 850mb temperatures will continue to warm on Friday ahead
of a cold front which will be dropping south out of Nebraska into
northern Kansas by late day. 850mb temperatures at 00z Saturday
continue to support highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s for western
Kansas. At this time will stay close to these temperatures for
highs despite the potential for increasing clouds from the west
late day ahead of the next approaching upper level trough.
Friday night into early Saturday a cold front will drop south
into the Texas panhandle as a northern branch upper level wave
crosses the Northern Plains. There may even be a chance for some
precipitation Friday night behind this front along a mid level
baroclinic zone that will be located across northern Kansas.
Saturday will be cloudy and cool. There may even be a slight
chance for some light precipitation during the day as moisture and
isentropic lift begins to develop ahead of an upper level trough
that will be crossing the four corners region. Given the cloud
cover and precipitation chances the highs may struggle to climb
much higher than the low to mid 50s.
From Saturday night through early Monday the latest global models
begin to diverge on the track and speed of this next upper level
trough as it moves from New Mexico into the the Central and
Southern Plains. Precipitation chances will improve late this
weekend, but exactly were the better chances for precipitation
will be is unclear. Will therefore stay close to the latest
CRExtendedFcst_Init for precipitation chances through Sunday
night.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
12z NAM BUFR soundings along with the latest RAP and HRRR
indicating VFR conditions through early Wednesday. Mid level
clouds will be on the increase late Wednesday morning, however
cloud bases are expected to be at or above 12000 ft AGL. Gusty
southwest winds at 15 to near 20 knots this afternoon will
decrease to 10 to 15 knots after sunset. After 14z Wednesday a
westerly wind at DDC and GCK will increase into the 20 to 25 knot
range. Also given the strong winds developing just above the
boundary layer overnight have included a wind shear group at DDC
and GCK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 46 56 30 56 / 0 30 20 10
GCK 43 49 25 58 / 0 40 30 10
EHA 47 50 29 59 / 0 20 20 10
LBL 45 55 28 60 / 0 30 20 10
HYS 40 53 27 53 / 0 50 50 10
P28 48 68 32 58 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1223 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
At 12z Tuesday a 500mb trough was located over the Pacific
northwest. A 700mb and 500mb westerly flow was evident across the
central Rockies and the West Central High Plains. A surface
boundary extended from west to east across southern Nebraska and
the 850mb temperatures this morning ranged from +17C at North
Platte to +22C at Dodge City.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
Upper level ridging over the central High Plains this morning will
move off to the east today while a strong shortwave trough moves into
the Intermountain West. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will
develop over western Kansas today ahead of the upper trough. At
the surface, a broad trough of low pressure will persist across
the central High Plains to the south of a low pressure system over
Nebraska. The low will redevelop westward today as the upper
system approaches. Across western and central Kansas, low level
flow will become southwesterly today as daytime heating increases. This
pattern will bring warm dry air into the area which should allow
temperatures to climb into the mid and upper 80s. Some locations
around Hays/Lacrosse could push 90 degrees.
By this evening, a cold front will be pushing into Nebraska while
the surface low begins to move eastward out of Colorado and along
the Kansas/Nebraska border. Southwesterly winds to the south of
the low should help keep low temperatures in the 40s to low 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
By Wednesday morning, the upper level system will have closed off
into an upper low along the eastern Colorado/northwest Kansas
border. This system tracks east northeast into southeast Nebraska
by late Wednesday. The GFS continues to have the farthest north
track but the GEM model is fairly similar. The ECMWF has been
showing a farther south track for the past few runs but seems to
be trending a little farther north with this evenings run. In the
wake of the system a strong cold front will push southeast across
western and central Kansas Wednesday afternoon.
A fairly strong pressure gradient is progged to develop along with
850 millibar winds pushing 50 knots. We could be looking high wind
criteria conditions during the afternoon and early evening hours
before the gradient relaxes. After collaboration with adjacent offices,
the consensus is to hold off on any headlines for now but have
increased the winds in the forecast and will be highlighting the
threat a little harder in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Chances for light rain will be increasing across west central
Kansas by early afternoon and spreading east and southeast through
the remainder of the afternoon and early evening behind the front.
The best chances remain up along the Highway 96 and I-70 corridors,
closer to the track of the upper low. Model soundings show that
the lower levels remain warm enough through the afternoon hours
that precipitation should remain liquid. By Wednesday evening,
there should be enough cold air filtering into the area to bring a
mix with or change over to light snow. It appears that any accumulations
will generally be less than an inch as the upper low will be moving
away from the region during the evening hours. Precipitation
chances will be coming to an end by midnight and winds will also
be diminishing.
In the wake of the Wednesday system, upper level flow will become
more zonal with time albeit with lower heights and thickness
values. We will see fairly quiet weather through Friday with highs
in the 50s and 60s before another upper level disturbance and
attendant cold front push through the central Plains Friday night
and Saturday. This system will bring another chance for
precipitation to the region but there is more uncertainty among
the models as to how good of chances there will be as well as
precipitation type.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
12z NAM BUFR soundings along with the latest RAP and HRRR
indicating VFR conditions through early Wednesday. Mid level
clouds will be on the increase late Wednesday morning, however
cloud bases are expected to be at or above 12000 ft AGL. Gusty
southwest winds at 15 to near 20 knots this afternoon will
decrease to 10 to 15 knots after sunset. After 14z Wednesday a
westerly wind at DDC and GCK will increase into the 20 to 25 knot
range. Also given the strong winds developing just above the
boundary layer overnight have included a wind shear group at DDC
and GCK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
Southwest winds will increase and become gusty across all of
southwest into central and south central Kansas this afternoon.
The resulting warm and dry airmass will result in relative
humidity values dropping into the single digits and lower teens.
The combination of this and the gusty winds will result in extreme
fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the
entire area this afternoon and early evening.
Elevated fire weather conditions could develop in the area around
Coldwater, Pratt and Medicine Lodge on Wednesday before a cold
front pushes through in the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 46 56 30 / 0 0 20 20
GCK 85 43 49 25 / 0 0 40 30
EHA 85 47 50 29 / 0 0 30 20
LBL 86 45 55 28 / 0 0 20 20
HYS 88 40 53 27 / 0 0 50 50
P28 87 48 65 32 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
145 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
GETTING VERY CLOSE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES
RIGHT NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
UPDATED TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S AS WE ARE ALREADY
REACHING THE LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS. ALSO LOWER DEWPOINTS...BASED
ON THE LOW READINGS ON THE HIGHER RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST. WE
SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN THE DRIER AIR TODAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EDGING SOUTH OF KENTUCKY WITH
DEEP LOW PRESSURE DOMINATING THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS HELPING TO SUPPORT A DECENT
RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED WITH CALM WINDS...WHILE SOUTHWEST
BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 MPH KEEP THE RIDGES BETTER MIXED. THIS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATER
IN THE DAY. THE OTHER PART OF THE EQUATION FOR FIRE WEATHER IS DRY
AIR IN PLACE AT THE SFC...AND MORE SO THAT WHICH CAN BE BROUGHT
DOWN FROM ALOFT...DURING THE DAY. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...
DEWPOINTS ARE RATHER DRY AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WHETHER THE OBSERVATION SITE IN ON THE RIDGES...SPORTING AIR
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S...OR IN THE VALLEYS...AS SOME OF THE
MOST SHELTERED SPOTS ARE SEEING THEIR DRY BULB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH THE MID 20S. THIS HAS LIKELY LED TO PLENTY OF VALLEY
FROST ALONG WITH A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...HENCE THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING IN
PLACE THROUGH 9 AM. THE RED FLAG WARNING THEN GOES INTO EFFECT AT
11 AM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THEY ALL DEPICT A
FLATTENING OVER KENTUCKY TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING BUILDING NORTH
AND EAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS RIDGE FURTHER SHARPENS OVERHEAD
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER...ANY ENERGY BREAKING FREE FROM THIS TROUGH WILL
STAY WELL NORTH OF KENTUCKY AS THE PACKETS MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE AGAIN FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN
TOWARD THE HRRR...RUC...AND NAM12 FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER THE NEAR
TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL...AFTER A CHILLY AND FROSTY START IN THE
VALLEYS...FEATURE A SUNNY...WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY DAY WITH THE
WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY. A FAIRLY HIGH
MIXING LEVEL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS AND
EXTRA DRY AIR BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SFC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED
FIRE CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE MORE
BORDERLINE IN THE EAST THAN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
ON THE RIDGES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING WHEN THE
WINDS SETTLE AND RH REBOUNDS. FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER DECENT RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT WILL SET UP OWING TO SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AS THIS MORNING AND STILL MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A TAD MORE CLOUDS...BUT STILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY...WARM...AND BREEZY. IN FACT...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
BE A CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS WELL...THOUGH THE WINDS
SHOULD BE A NOTCH LIGHTER ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LESS DRY HUMIDITY
LEVELS.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS AGAIN AS A
STARTING POINT THROUGH THE DAY AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. HAVE
ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO SIGNIFICANTLY ADJUST FOR TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT ALSO TOOK
THE DEWPOINTS DOWN A CATEGORY BOTH AFTERNOONS FOR ENHANCED DRY
AIR MIX-DOWN ANTICIPATED. AS FOR POPS...ZEROED THEM OUT ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY...IN LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE MIDDLE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OF
THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THEREFORE WE WILL REMAIN MIXED AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH GRADIENT STAYING FAIRLY TIGHT. OVERALL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW STILL LOOKS TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
OVERALL THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEFINITE
POPS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF IS
PERSISTENT WITH A SLOWER PROGRESS EAST. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLEND OF POPS...BUT WILL TRY TO PROGRESS THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD FRONT. OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE AND STILL SOME CONCERN ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WE
ACTUALLY REALIZE. RIGHT NOW WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC LOOKING AT THE
TIME HEIGHTS...WITH BOTH DEEP MOISTURE AND OMEGA INDICATING A
PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BE MUCH
NEEDED GIVEN VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATING FAIRLY MEAGER
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SEE A FEW STORMS. ALSO
GIVEN THE STRONG JET ENERGY ALOFT WOULD THINK ANY OF THE STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTY
WINDS.
POPS LOOK TO FALL OFF QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST. WE DO SEE A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH THIS FRONT AS
850 MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE -4 TO -6 RANGE. WHILE WE CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY...AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...WE
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH. THEREFORE ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR
YOU FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPS IN THE SHELTER VALLEY SPOTS...THEREFORE WILL
KEEP THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO FOR NOW. TEMPS LOOK TO RECOVER
SATURDAY AS WE BEGIN TO GET BACK IN THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NOW LATE PERIOD GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE
A BIT WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. ONCE AGAIN THE 00Z GFS REMAINS
FASTER AND BRINGS OVERRUNNING ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WHILE
THE 00Z ECMWF HOLD OFF TIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND WOULD DEVELOP A DEEPER
SURFACE LOW. RIGHT NOW THESE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO BE WITH RESPECT
TO THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE AND CLOSED VERSUS OPEN WAVE...WITH THE
ECMWF PROJECTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK WITH THE
MODEL BLEND...GIVEN WE LOOK TO SEE A DECENT SYSTEM TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEKEND IT PAINTS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT DECENT INSTABILITY AND
ENOUGH TO BEGIN INCLUDING THIS THOUGHT IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY FOR THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON... IN
THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH THE HIGHER VALUES FOUND TO THE
WEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
LOW AFTERNOON/EVENING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP TODAY...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS LIMITED TO RIDGES IN THE
EAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND HIGHER WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXCEEDING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. FOR THIS REASON...WE HAVE ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY COME UP SOME BY THEN. A COLD FRONT THEN
LOOKS TO BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE AND BASIN AVERAGES AROUND A HALF AN
INCH EXPECTED.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS
FIRE WEATHER...GREIF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1235 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
The latest short term guidance is not real excited about 45mph
gusts this afternoon, but they will be close enough to allow the
Wind Advisory to continue through the afternoon. We are closely
monitoring RH and winds across west Kentucky for fire weather
concerns.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Will issue a Wind Advisory for the west 2/3 of the area given
momentum transfer values seen in Bufkit GFS/NAM in the mixed layer
below 850mb. We usually end up at or just above these values.
Looking upstream at sfc obs, near term high res dew point
forecasts seem too high. We lowered values. Otherwise high clouds
today. Still breezy tonight. Increasing low level moisture should
result in more cloud cover by Wednesday morning. Through the day
Wednesday, the models (for 3 days now), show a very strong cap aoa
850mb with all moisture below the cap. Maybe sprinkles at best.
Agree with previous shift, warm advection will tend to lift the
inversion. Soundings show that, but probably not until the end of
the day. Probably mostly clouds with a lack of focus and NVA aloft
across the area. Temps a MOS blend. Lower confidence Wednesday in
warmer MAV given clouds. Went closer to ECS MOS values.
For the Wednesday night through Thursday time frame, we will
continue to gear PoPs toward the ECMWF/NAM and somewhat the CMC.
The GFS continues to appear too fast. These trends have existed
for the past 3 days. The upper system should be over NE KS/NW MO
06z Thursday with a sfc low over NW MO. The upper low should reach
NW IL by 18z with the sfc low over northern IN. Surface front at
12z Thursday should just be entering our western most counties of
SEMO. At 18z the front should be from SW IN into the KY Pennyrile.
Will increase PoPs from west to east Wednesday night for showers
and thunderstorms. Best PoPs Thursday morning will be across the
eastern 2/3 of the area, decreasing chances fairly quickly during
the afternoon from west to east. Some strong storms will be
possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning, given decent wind
fields, modest surface based instability and lowering freezing
levels. Thursday night will be dry with high pressure building in.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Sfc high pressure will be centered over us Friday morning, which
will allow for a very cold start, with morning lows bottoming out in
the lower 30s. This high will shift east throughout the day on
Friday/Friday night and winds will eventually shift back to
southeasterly as this occurs. Temperatures will be below normal for
Friday and only be in the low to mid 50s.
Our attention then turns to our next weather system. The GFS
continues to be the quickest model and brings the next cold front
through the area Saturday night into Sunday. The ECMWF is consistent
with a slower solution. In addition, the last couple of ECMWF runs
indicates a sfc low forming to our west along the front which moves
northeast across south central IL Sunday into Monday. This is in
response to an upper level low that develops in MO/IL. This would
indicate better chances for rain later in the weekend and continuing
into early Monday.
Looking at the GFS ensembles, it indicates a fairly progressive
trough moving through but tends to linger QPF a bit longer than the
operational GFS. Still too far out in time to nail down a perfect
time for precip. There are some indications of thunder as well,
especially when we get to Sunday and/or Sunday night.
Temperatures over the weekend should be in the 60s with a cool down
behind the front by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Gusty south southwest winds have developed as expected and should
continue to strengthen through the afternoon. Frequent gusts over
30kts will be the rule with the possible exception of KPAH. Winds
will stay up tonight, and gusts are likely. If the winds drop off
more tonight, LLWS will be a concern. All available guidance
brings a rapid increase in low-level moisture/clouds through all
the TAF sites late tonight or tomorrow morning, but the timing is
varied. Tried to find the middle ground. Also have lower MVFR
ceilings at KCGI and KPAH than at KEVV and KOWB.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Will monitor elevated fire danger concerns closely through the day
given strong SSW winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 45 mph. This
combined with dry fuels, and humidity levels from the upper 20 to
mid 30s (percent), will present an elevated fire concern. Best
chance of meeting criteria will be across west Kentucky. We can
coordinate this with fire weather officials shortly after daybreak
and see if any headlines are needed.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...None.
KY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....CW
AVIATION...DRS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1235 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
The latest short term guidance is not real excited about 45mph
gusts this afternoon, but they will be close enough to allow the
Wind Advisory to continue through the afternoon. We are closely
monitoring RH and winds across west Kentucky for fire weather
concerns.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Will issue a Wind Advisory for the west 2/3 of the area given
momentum transfer values seen in Bufkit GFS/NAM in the mixed layer
below 850mb. We usually end up at or just above these values.
Looking upstream at sfc obs, near term high res dew point
forecasts seem too high. We lowered values. Otherwise high clouds
today. Still breezy tonight. Increasing low level moisture should
result in more cloud cover by Wednesday morning. Through the day
Wednesday, the models (for 3 days now), show a very strong cap aoa
850mb with all moisture below the cap. Maybe sprinkles at best.
Agree with previous shift, warm advection will tend to lift the
inversion. Soundings show that, but probably not until the end of
the day. Probably mostly clouds with a lack of focus and NVA aloft
across the area. Temps a MOS blend. Lower confidence Wednesday in
warmer MAV given clouds. Went closer to ECS MOS values.
For the Wednesday night through Thursday time frame, we will
continue to gear PoPs toward the ECMWF/NAM and somewhat the CMC.
The GFS continues to appear too fast. These trends have existed
for the past 3 days. The upper system should be over NE KS/NW MO
06z Thursday with a sfc low over NW MO. The upper low should reach
NW IL by 18z with the sfc low over northern IN. Surface front at
12z Thursday should just be entering our western most counties of
SEMO. At 18z the front should be from SW IN into the KY Pennyrile.
Will increase PoPs from west to east Wednesday night for showers
and thunderstorms. Best PoPs Thursday morning will be across the
eastern 2/3 of the area, decreasing chances fairly quickly during
the afternoon from west to east. Some strong storms will be
possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning, given decent wind
fields, modest surface based instability and lowering freezing
levels. Thursday night will be dry with high pressure building in.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Sfc high pressure will be centered over us Friday morning, which
will allow for a very cold start, with morning lows bottoming out in
the lower 30s. This high will shift east throughout the day on
Friday/Friday night and winds will eventually shift back to
southeasterly as this occurs. Temperatures will be below normal for
Friday and only be in the low to mid 50s.
Our attention then turns to our next weather system. The GFS
continues to be the quickest model and brings the next cold front
through the area Saturday night into Sunday. The ECMWF is consistent
with a slower solution. In addition, the last couple of ECMWF runs
indicates a sfc low forming to our west along the front which moves
northeast across south central IL Sunday into Monday. This is in
response to an upper level low that develops in MO/IL. This would
indicate better chances for rain later in the weekend and continuing
into early Monday.
Looking at the GFS ensembles, it indicates a fairly progressive
trough moving through but tends to linger QPF a bit longer than the
operational GFS. Still too far out in time to nail down a perfect
time for precip. There are some indications of thunder as well,
especially when we get to Sunday and/or Sunday night.
Temperatures over the weekend should be in the 60s with a cool down
behind the front by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Gusty south southwest winds have developed as expected and should
continue to strengthen through the afternoon. Frequent gusts over
30kts will be the rule with the possible exception of KPAH. Winds
will stay up tonight, and gusts are likely. If the winds drop off
more tonight, LLWS will be a concern. All available guidance
brings a rapid increase in low-level moisture/clouds through all
the TAF sites late tonight or tomorrow morning, but the timing is
varied. Tried to find the middle ground. Also have lower MVFR
ceilings at KCGI and KPAH than at KEVV and KOWB.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Will monitor elevated fire danger concerns closely through the day
given strong SSW winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 45 mph. This
combined with dry fuels, and humidity levels from the upper 20 to
mid 30s (percent), will present an elevated fire concern. Best
chance of meeting criteria will be across west Kentucky. We can
coordinate this with fire weather officials shortly after daybreak
and see if any headlines are needed.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...None.
KY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....CW
AVIATION...DRS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1235 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
The latest short term guidance is not real excited about 45mph
gusts this afternoon, but they will be close enough to allow the
Wind Advisory to continue through the afternoon. We are closely
monitoring RH and winds across west Kentucky for fire weather
concerns.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Will issue a Wind Advisory for the west 2/3 of the area given
momentum transfer values seen in Bufkit GFS/NAM in the mixed layer
below 850mb. We usually end up at or just above these values.
Looking upstream at sfc obs, near term high res dew point
forecasts seem too high. We lowered values. Otherwise high clouds
today. Still breezy tonight. Increasing low level moisture should
result in more cloud cover by Wednesday morning. Through the day
Wednesday, the models (for 3 days now), show a very strong cap aoa
850mb with all moisture below the cap. Maybe sprinkles at best.
Agree with previous shift, warm advection will tend to lift the
inversion. Soundings show that, but probably not until the end of
the day. Probably mostly clouds with a lack of focus and NVA aloft
across the area. Temps a MOS blend. Lower confidence Wednesday in
warmer MAV given clouds. Went closer to ECS MOS values.
For the Wednesday night through Thursday time frame, we will
continue to gear PoPs toward the ECMWF/NAM and somewhat the CMC.
The GFS continues to appear too fast. These trends have existed
for the past 3 days. The upper system should be over NE KS/NW MO
06z Thursday with a sfc low over NW MO. The upper low should reach
NW IL by 18z with the sfc low over northern IN. Surface front at
12z Thursday should just be entering our western most counties of
SEMO. At 18z the front should be from SW IN into the KY Pennyrile.
Will increase PoPs from west to east Wednesday night for showers
and thunderstorms. Best PoPs Thursday morning will be across the
eastern 2/3 of the area, decreasing chances fairly quickly during
the afternoon from west to east. Some strong storms will be
possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning, given decent wind
fields, modest surface based instability and lowering freezing
levels. Thursday night will be dry with high pressure building in.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Sfc high pressure will be centered over us Friday morning, which
will allow for a very cold start, with morning lows bottoming out in
the lower 30s. This high will shift east throughout the day on
Friday/Friday night and winds will eventually shift back to
southeasterly as this occurs. Temperatures will be below normal for
Friday and only be in the low to mid 50s.
Our attention then turns to our next weather system. The GFS
continues to be the quickest model and brings the next cold front
through the area Saturday night into Sunday. The ECMWF is consistent
with a slower solution. In addition, the last couple of ECMWF runs
indicates a sfc low forming to our west along the front which moves
northeast across south central IL Sunday into Monday. This is in
response to an upper level low that develops in MO/IL. This would
indicate better chances for rain later in the weekend and continuing
into early Monday.
Looking at the GFS ensembles, it indicates a fairly progressive
trough moving through but tends to linger QPF a bit longer than the
operational GFS. Still too far out in time to nail down a perfect
time for precip. There are some indications of thunder as well,
especially when we get to Sunday and/or Sunday night.
Temperatures over the weekend should be in the 60s with a cool down
behind the front by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Gusty south southwest winds have developed as expected and should
continue to strengthen through the afternoon. Frequent gusts over
30kts will be the rule with the possible exception of KPAH. Winds
will stay up tonight, and gusts are likely. If the winds drop off
more tonight, LLWS will be a concern. All available guidance
brings a rapid increase in low-level moisture/clouds through all
the TAF sites late tonight or tomorrow morning, but the timing is
varied. Tried to find the middle ground. Also have lower MVFR
ceilings at KCGI and KPAH than at KEVV and KOWB.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Will monitor elevated fire danger concerns closely through the day
given strong SSW winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 45 mph. This
combined with dry fuels, and humidity levels from the upper 20 to
mid 30s (percent), will present an elevated fire concern. Best
chance of meeting criteria will be across west Kentucky. We can
coordinate this with fire weather officials shortly after daybreak
and see if any headlines are needed.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...None.
KY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....CW
AVIATION...DRS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1240 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated 1056 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Current forecast remains on track in the short term. We did lower
dewpoints slightly in the east given current observations. We
adjusted dewpoints more toward the latest HRRR runs which allows
dewpoints to drop into the lower 20s this afternoon. Afternoon
relative humidity values may drop into the 23-29% range for a time
out near the I-75 corridor. In addition gusty southwest winds of 15
to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30-35 MPH will combine with the low
humidity to produce heightened wildfire conditions across the
region. We will continue to coordinate with local forestry
officials to see if any additional headlines will be needed later
this morning and into the afternoon.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2016
The short term will be dominated by warm and dry southerly surface
flow as we sit between high pressure moving off the southeast coast
and low pressure organizing over the central Plains. The models do
print out some light QPF Wednesday over the northwest LMK CWA but
this may be overdone. Atmospheric cross-sections show only shallow
moisture and MOS PoPs are mostly in the single digits over much of
the CWA. So, after chatting with PAH, will have a dry forecast for
Wednesday.
A tight surface gradient and abundant insolation (especially today)
will lead to windy conditions throughout the short term. Winds will
gust to 30, possibly 35, mph this afternoon, and into the 25-30mph
range Wednesday afternoon. We`ll get close to Wind Advisory this
afternoon. For now, with the forecast below advisory thresholds,
will stick with an SPS.
Dry air and turbulent mixing on the soundings suggest dew points
this afternoon bottoming out from the upper 20s from Lake Cumberland
to the Blue Grass Army Depot...to the middle and upper 30s towards
Hoosier National Forest. This plus the wind gusts and low fuel
moisture will lead to a heightened fire danger today, especially in
the Blue Grass and Lake Cumberland regions. We`ll coordinate with
fire officials and surrounding NWS offices later this morning to
determine the need for any headlines.
Higher dew points streaming from the Gulf into the Arklatex today
will finally make it to central Kentucky and southern Indiana
tomorrow, helping to slightly lower fire risk. Still, winds will be
gusty and fuel moisture levels low, so caution will need to be
exercised.
High temperatures today will be in the middle and upper 60s. Temps
will stay up tonight ahead of the approaching Plains system and with
southerly breezes continuing. Lows should be around 50. On Wednesday
southerly flow will continue and a cold front will be nearing from
the west, but increasing clouds will offset temps a bit, so will
once again forecast highs in the middle and upper 60s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Surface low pressure near Kansas City Wednesday evening will proceed
to Chicago by Thursday morning and Lake Erie by that evening,
pulling its cold front through here on Thursday. Gulf moisture will
be plentiful and widespread showers are expected late Wednesday
night through Thursday afternoon. Instability will be weak and
elevated with this system. Thunder will be a possibility but severe
weather looks unlikely so far.
With the cold front approaching, widespread clouds overhead, and
southerly winds keeping up overnight, went above guidance for lows
Wednesday night in the 55-60 degree range. Not much recovery on
Thursday, though, with clouds and rain.
The cold front and associated upper trof axis will move through
Thursday night, bringing an end to the showers. High pressure will
provide us with dry and pleasant weather Friday and Saturday, though
the mornings will be cool. Some patchy frost could form in sheltered
spots, but the wind may stay up just enough Friday morning and
temperatures may stay just warm enough Saturday morning to keep
frost from becoming widespread or heavy.
The next upper trof will dig into the Plains late in the week and
approach us by Sunday/Monday, causing showers and a few
thunderstorms to return to the forecast for the second half of the
weekend and the first part of the new week.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1240 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2016
Winds have become quite gusty early this afternoon in response to
the tightening pressure gradient across the region. Winds through
the afternoon hours will continue in the 15-20 knot range with gusts
as high as 30 knots. Winds will relax a bit overnight, but the
boundary layer will remain well mixed with gusts out of the south-
southwest of up to 20 knots through the night. The low level jet
will increase overnight. However, with the boundary layer remaining
well mixed and the inversion setting up above the low level jet,
have decided not to put LLWS in the TAFs at this time. Gusts will
pick up above 20 knots again tomorrow morning. In addition, low
level moisture will lead to increased low level cloudiness
tomorrow morning, though ceilings look to remain VFR at this time.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......13
Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
539 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF A THURSDAY COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTED
THEM USING THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN ZONAL FLOW TRAVERSES THE REGION. SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES FOR AREAS NORTH OF I 80 WERE THUS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE RELATIVE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE UPPER OHIO VALLERY REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS
AS WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES TO THE SOUTH OF THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE/PERSISTENCE WAS USED FOR TONIGHTS
LOWS...AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE
PROJECTED FOR A THURSDAY APPROACH...AND NIGHTIME PASSAGE ACRS THE
UPPER OHIO REGION. INCREASING POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT TIME
FRAME...WITH CUMULATION IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS. THUNDER STILL
LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH FRONT...BUT MODELS DIFFER IN THE MAGNITUDE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/HENCE INSTABILTY. DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY DUE TO THAT INSTABILTY
LIMITATION.
ENSUING COLD ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY SHOWER PROBS INTO THE
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
PITTSBURGH AROUND DAYBREAK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY ADVECTION SHOULD DRY THE WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO THEN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THAT SCENARIO WOULD BRING
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. SW WIND
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...HAVE
INTRODUCED WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL BETTER MIXING OCCURS
AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW.
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO DROP THE STATIONARY FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PA TOMORROW. THIS LEADS TO QUITE A DIFFERENT
SOLUTION FOR FORECAST RESTRICTIONS. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION WHICH HOLD THE MOISTURE AND LOWER CIGS
NORTHWARD...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A THURSDAY COLD
FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
432 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BTWN TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS. PLAINS RIDGING IS OUT AHEAD OF A TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. ENERGY OVER SRN NV IN THE BASE OF THAT
TROF WILL SPIN UP A WINTER STORM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WED NIGHT NIGHT/THU. CLOSER TO HOME...STREAK OF -SN IN
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME AND AIDED BY SHARPER FGEN HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FCST AREA AFTER LEAVING A DUSTING TO AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF DIMINISHING LIGHT PCPN
EXITING NE MN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE
N AND E THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO
NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. 12Z CYPL SOUNDING AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
TODAY SUPPORTS THIS DRYING TREND AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE NRN ONTARIO
WITH ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NE LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL THUS CARRY A
MENTION OF -SN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN END PCPN WNW TO ESE AS
FORCING EXITS AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES. EVEN IF LOW CLOUDS DO SCATTER
OUT OR CLEAR OUT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER 850MB
TEMPS -9/-10C MAY SUPPORT STRATOCU EXPANSION LATE TONIGHT AND/OR WED
MORNING. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLEARING...TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE
TEENS AT SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
ON WED...SHORTWAVE OVER SRN NV WILL EMERGE OUT OVER THE WRN PLAINS
AS A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ORGANIZES
OVER KS. DOWNSTREAM...TIGHTENING CONFLUENCE ZONE BTWN SRN STREAM
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WRN PLAINS TROF AND CONTINUED NRN STREAM
TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET
FROM NRN ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR EASTWARD. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET WILL HELP PCPN EXPAND TO THE N OF
A NEARLY STATIONARY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW TO LAKE
ERIE. GIVEN THE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER NRN ONTARIO ON WED AND THE MAIN FGEN ZONE S
OF THE AREA...WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLOWER NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF PCPN
INTO FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI WED AFTN. FCST WILL SHOW SCHC POPS
SPREADING INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY DURING THE AFTN...BUT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL 22-23Z OVER THE SRN HALF
OF THE COUNTY. CHC POPS WILL EXTEND AS FAR N AS KIMT/KESC AT 23Z.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING STRATOCU THAT
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE W AND NCNTRL...EXPECT A GRADUAL THICKENING OF
HIGH CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 30S...A
STEADY NE WIND WILL ADD A CHILL...ESPECIALLY IN MENOMINEE COUNTY
WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING DOWN THE BAY WILL ENHANCE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
...FOCUS IS ON GREAT LAKES STORM LATE WED AFTN INTO THU MORNING...
UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS TO ROCKIES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON WED MORNING THEN LIFTS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THU AND
OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRI. TROUGH ALOFT MAINTAINS POSITIVE OR
NEUTRAL TILT AS STRONGEST JET ENERGY REMAINS AHEAD OF TROUGH. SFC
LOW 987MB-991MB DEEPENS OVER KS THROUGH MIDDAY WED THEN MOVES TO
NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO BY WED EVENING. FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE VCNTY OF SOUTHERN
IOWA TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI BY WED
EVENING. SHARP H85 FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT...VCNTY OF
SOUTHERN MN TO CNTRL WI AND CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT BAND OF
SNOW TO STREAK AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE H85 FRONT AND WITHIN
REGION OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENEIS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER LATE
WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT...FARTHER NORTH H85 TROUGH MAY PUSH THE
INITIAL FGEN SNOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN UPR MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...NE
WINDS TO NORTH OF THE FGEN CIRCULATION WILL BE ADVECTING DRY AIR
OVER UPR MICHIGAN FM LARGE HIGH OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...ULTIMATELY
HELPING TO SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF SYSTEM SNOW.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO
THU. SOME INIDIATION THAT WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY BRING HEAVIER SNOW FARTHER
NORTH. DEFORMATION AND PVA NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SNOW FM NORTHEAST WI INTO AT LEAST SCNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS -8C OR LOWER INDICATE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR WHERE THE LARGE SCALE SNOW IS FALLING. THE MAIN QUESTION THAT
REMAINS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL SECONDARY SURGE
OF SNOW TRACK ON WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN IS
STILL SHOWN TO BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF HEAVIER SYNOPTIC SNOW
WITH QPF AMOUNTS OVER 0.60 INCHES AT LEAST FOR MNM...BUT LATEST
TRENDS FOR NAM/GFS AND GEM SHOW LESS QPF OVER NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN
AS THEY TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND POSITION
OF SFC LOW. NOW IF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW IS FARTHER NORTH THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES ATTM...THEN GOING WATCHES WOULD HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED NORTH FOR HEAVIER SYNOPTIC SNOW AND ALSO WOULD HAVE HEAVIER
SNOW FOR HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR NORTH CENTRAL WITH
FAVORABLE NE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. VOLITILITY OF THE
MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS UP IN SREF MEMBERS WHICH SHOW LEAST SPREAD AT
KMNM /MIN OF 4 INCHES AND MAX OF 12 INCHES/ WHILE JUST NORTH OF
THERE AT KIMT/KESC AND KMQT...SPREAD RANGES FM LESS THAN 2 INCHES TO
OVER 10 INCHES.
WILL KEEP MENOMINEE IN WINTER STORM WATCH AS MAJORITY OF HEAVIER
SNOW WOULD NOT MOVE IN UNTIL WED NIGHT. NE WINDS OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -8C WOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. EVEN WITH THE WET SNOW...EXPOSURE TO NE WINDS OFF OF
THE BAY...OVER 35 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER...WILL ALSO RESULT IN
BLSN/LOW VSBY ISSUES IF WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY SNOW AFFECTS THE AREA.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF NORTHERN EDGE OF SYSTEM SNOW...DID NOT ADD ANY
OTHER PARTS OF UPR MICHIGAN INTO WATCH...THOUGH AT THE LEAST COULD
SEE NEED FOR EVENTUAL ADVISORY FOR REST OF SCNTRL AND SOUTHEAST CWA.
REST OF EXTENDED...DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SFC LOW TRACKS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN LK HURON BY THU EVENING. N TO NE WINDS ARE
CYCLONIC IN WAKE OF THE LOW ACROSS LK SUPERIOR BUT H85 TEMPS DOWN TO
-10C ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT. EXPECT COLDEST TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THU NIGHT OVER INTERIOR WEST. MOST OF FRI SHOULD BE
DRY WITH TEMPS PUSHING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. TEMPS GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH WEEKEND AS TROUGH CROSSES REGION. BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WITH
THIS FEATURE IS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. MAY SEE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING OVER THE SOUTH. LOOKS MAINLY DRY EASTER
INTO MON. STORM EARLIER ECMWF RUN SHOWED IS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SUPPOSE IT COULD COME BACK WEST...BUT
RIGHT NOW SOLUTION IS TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
TEMPS WILL STAY AT OR BLO NORMAL AS THE COOLER WEATHER PATTERN THAT
SETTLED IN LATE LAST WEEK PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
AS -SN DIMINISHES/ENDS THIS AFTN AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY ARRIVES
FROM THE N AND E THRU TONIGHT...OCNL TO PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS AT
KCMX/KSAW WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING THEN TO VFR
DURING THE EVENING...BEGINNING FIRST AT KCMX. AT KIWD...MVFR CIGS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TONIGHT. WITH A COOL AIR MASS AND UPSLOPE
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...MVFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP FOR A TIME EARLY
WED MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS SFC HIGH PRES DRIFTS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. TONIGHT/WED SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY
15-25KT WINDS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...STRONGEST OVER THE
FAR W DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING...AND 10-20KT WINDS OVER
THE E HALF. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 20-30KT WED NIGHT/THU AS THE
LOW PRES TRACKS THRU THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MIGHT SEE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E ON THU. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THRU THU
NIGHT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON FRI
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES TROF WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
347 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT LKS BTWN GENERAL TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA/NE CONUS AND
AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF MID/HI CLDS
STREAMING INTO THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF A SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE NRN
PLAINS/ACCOMPANYING WAA...BUT VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL
RAOB HAS SLOWED/LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF BAND OF WAA PCPN STRETCHING
ACRS NCENTRAL MN TOWARD FAR WRN LK SUP DESPITE A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT SHOWN BEST ON THE 285-290K ISENTROPIC SFCS /H85-7/ OVER THE
AREA AND ACCOMPANYING BAND OF SHARPER FGEN. THIS VERY DRY AIR IS
EVIDENT ALSO ON THE 00Z YPL/GRB/APX RAOBS AND HAS ALLOWED NOTHING
MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES INTO THE CWA AS OF 08Z DESITE THE THICKENING
CLDS/SHARPENING FGEN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/FGEN FCST TO IMPACT THE CWA AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW
MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO SHEAR OUT AS IT
HEADS TO THE E IN FAST WNW FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THIS TREND AND
ABUNDANT DRY AIR ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN...MODELS SHOW PRES
GRADIENT ON THE 285-290K ISENTROPIC SFC TIGHTENING OVER THE CWA AS
AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN IN THE H85-75 LYR CROSSES THE AREA THIS MRNG
BEFORE EXITING IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE PRES/THERMAL GRADIENT IS FCST
TO TIGHTEN...EXPECT SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SHOWING
BAND OF SOME -SN DVLPG OVER MAINLY THE CNTRL CWA...WHICH WL BE UNDER
THE BAND OF SHARPER FGEN. FCST SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THE 2-3G/KG
RANGE WOULD SUPPORT UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SN DURING THE 6-9HR
PERIOD OF FORCING...BUT IMPACT OF LLVL DRY AIR AS WELL AS MARGINAL
ADDITIONAL DYANMIC SUPPORT RELATED TO THE SHEARING SHRTWV SUGGEST SN
TOTALS WL BE MAINLY UP TO 2 INCHES. IN FACT...THE WPC FCST SHOWS
ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SN UNDER THE FGEN BAND. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE UPSLOPING ENE WINDS
MAY AID LLVL MOISTENING/SN AMOUNTS. OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL... FCST
SDNGS SUG ANY PCPN WL BE AT LEAST MIXED WITH RA. BUT MANY OF THE
MODELS SHOW NO PCPN FALLING IN THIS AREA ANYWAY...SO WL PAINT THE
LOWER POPS IN THIS AREA. ONE OTHER IMPACT OF THE LLVL DRY AIR WL TO
SHARPEN THE NRN EDGE OF THE POPS SO THAT THE NRN KEWEENAW MAY SEE
LTL PCPN/SN AS WELL. AFTER THE SHARPER FGEN EXITS THIS AFTN...EXPECT
DIMINISHING POPS. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAVE SHOWN THE PCPN MAY TAPER TO
DRIZZLE...BUT CONCERNED THE DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS MAY LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. CONFINED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE TO MAINLY THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL.
TNGT...WITH DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING DOMINATING...EXPECT
A GENERALLY DRY FCST. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME LGT PCPN
PERSISTING OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE NNE
FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF HI PRES BLDG INTO NW ONTARIO...BUT DRYNESS
OF THE AIRMASS TO THE N FAVORS THE DRIER PCPN FREE GUIDANCE FOR THIS
AREA. BUT WL HOLD ON TO SOME LO CHC POPS FOR SN OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...WHICH WL BE NEAR THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES OF LO PRES MOVING ALONG STALLED SFC FNT OVER
THE LOWER GRT LKS. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLRG ASSOCIATED WITH
THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FM THE N...TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS AT
SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS DURING THE NGT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
...FOCUS IS ON GREAT LAKES STORM LATE WED AFTN INTO THU MORNING...
UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS TO ROCKIES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON WED MORNING THEN LIFTS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THU AND
OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRI. TROUGH ALOFT MAINTAINS POSITIVE OR
NEUTRAL TILT AS STRONGEST JET ENERGY REMAINS AHEAD OF TROUGH. SFC
LOW 987MB-991MB DEEPENS OVER KS THROUGH MIDDAY WED THEN MOVES TO
NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO BY WED EVENING. FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE VCNTY OF SOUTHERN
IOWA TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI BY WED
EVENING. SHARP H85 FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT...VCNTY OF
SOUTHERN MN TO CNTRL WI AND CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT BAND OF
SNOW TO STREAK AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE H85 FRONT AND WITHIN
REGION OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENEIS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER LATE
WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT...FARTHER NORTH H85 TROUGH MAY PUSH THE
INITIAL FGEN SNOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN UPR MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...NE
WINDS TO NORTH OF THE FGEN CIRCULATION WILL BE ADVECTING DRY AIR
OVER UPR MICHIGAN FM LARGE HIGH OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...ULTIMATELY
HELPING TO SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF SYSTEM SNOW.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO
THU. SOME INIDIATION THAT WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY BRING HEAVIER SNOW FARTHER
NORTH. DEFORMATION AND PVA NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SNOW FM NORTHEAST WI INTO AT LEAST SCNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS -8C OR LOWER INDICATE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR WHERE THE LARGE SCALE SNOW IS FALLING. THE MAIN QUESTION THAT
REMAINS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL SECONDARY SURGE
OF SNOW TRACK ON WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN IS
STILL SHOWN TO BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF HEAVIER SYNOPTIC SNOW
WITH QPF AMOUNTS OVER 0.60 INCHES AT LEAST FOR MNM...BUT LATEST
TRENDS FOR NAM/GFS AND GEM SHOW LESS QPF OVER NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN
AS THEY TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND POSITION
OF SFC LOW. NOW IF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW IS FARTHER NORTH THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES ATTM...THEN GOING WATCHES WOULD HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED NORTH FOR HEAVIER SYNOPTIC SNOW AND ALSO WOULD HAVE HEAVIER
SNOW FOR HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR NORTH CENTRAL WITH
FAVORABLE NE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. VOLITILITY OF THE
MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS UP IN SREF MEMBERS WHICH SHOW LEAST SPREAD AT
KMNM /MIN OF 4 INCHES AND MAX OF 12 INCHES/ WHILE JUST NORTH OF
THERE AT KIMT/KESC AND KMQT...SPREAD RANGES FM LESS THAN 2 INCHES TO
OVER 10 INCHES.
WILL KEEP MENOMINEE IN WINTER STORM WATCH AS MAJORITY OF HEAVIER
SNOW WOULD NOT MOVE IN UNTIL WED NIGHT. NE WINDS OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -8C WOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. EVEN WITH THE WET SNOW...EXPOSURE TO NE WINDS OFF OF
THE BAY...OVER 35 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER...WILL ALSO RESULT IN
BLSN/LOW VSBY ISSUES IF WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY SNOW AFFECTS THE AREA.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF NORTHERN EDGE OF SYSTEM SNOW...DID NOT ADD ANY
OTHER PARTS OF UPR MICHIGAN INTO WATCH...THOUGH AT THE LEAST COULD
SEE NEED FOR EVENTUAL ADVISORY FOR REST OF SCNTRL AND SOUTHEAST CWA.
REST OF EXTENDED...DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SFC LOW TRACKS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN LK HURON BY THU EVENING. N TO NE WINDS ARE
CYCLONIC IN WAKE OF THE LOW ACROSS LK SUPERIOR BUT H85 TEMPS DOWN TO
-10C ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT. EXPECT COLDEST TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THU NIGHT OVER INTERIOR WEST. MOST OF FRI SHOULD BE
DRY WITH TEMPS PUSHING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. TEMPS GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH WEEKEND AS TROUGH CROSSES REGION. BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WITH
THIS FEATURE IS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. MAY SEE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING OVER THE SOUTH. LOOKS MAINLY DRY EASTER
INTO MON. STORM EARLIER ECMWF RUN SHOWED IS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SUPPOSE IT COULD COME BACK WEST...BUT
RIGHT NOW SOLUTION IS TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
TEMPS WILL STAY AT OR BLO NORMAL AS THE COOLER WEATHER PATTERN THAT
SETTLED IN LATE LAST WEEK PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
AS -SN DIMINISHES/ENDS THIS AFTN AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY ARRIVES
FROM THE N AND E THRU TONIGHT...OCNL TO PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS AT
KCMX/KSAW WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING THEN TO VFR
DURING THE EVENING...BEGINNING FIRST AT KCMX. AT KIWD...MVFR CIGS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TONIGHT. WITH A COOL AIR MASS AND UPSLOPE
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...MVFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP FOR A TIME EARLY
WED MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS RIDGING
SETTLES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY.
WINDS BECOME 20 TO 30 KNOTS FOR ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED EVENING
THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH GALES GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
EAST HALF. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THU
NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS ARRIVE AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FRI. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
141 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT LKS BTWN GENERAL TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA/NE CONUS AND
AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF MID/HI CLDS
STREAMING INTO THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF A SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE NRN
PLAINS/ACCOMPANYING WAA...BUT VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL
RAOB HAS SLOWED/LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF BAND OF WAA PCPN STRETCHING
ACRS NCENTRAL MN TOWARD FAR WRN LK SUP DESPITE A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT SHOWN BEST ON THE 285-290K ISENTROPIC SFCS /H85-7/ OVER THE
AREA AND ACCOMPANYING BAND OF SHARPER FGEN. THIS VERY DRY AIR IS
EVIDENT ALSO ON THE 00Z YPL/GRB/APX RAOBS AND HAS ALLOWED NOTHING
MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES INTO THE CWA AS OF 08Z DESITE THE THICKENING
CLDS/SHARPENING FGEN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/FGEN FCST TO IMPACT THE CWA AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW
MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO SHEAR OUT AS IT
HEADS TO THE E IN FAST WNW FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THIS TREND AND
ABUNDANT DRY AIR ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN...MODELS SHOW PRES
GRADIENT ON THE 285-290K ISENTROPIC SFC TIGHTENING OVER THE CWA AS
AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN IN THE H85-75 LYR CROSSES THE AREA THIS MRNG
BEFORE EXITING IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE PRES/THERMAL GRADIENT IS FCST
TO TIGHTEN...EXPECT SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SHOWING
BAND OF SOME -SN DVLPG OVER MAINLY THE CNTRL CWA...WHICH WL BE UNDER
THE BAND OF SHARPER FGEN. FCST SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THE 2-3G/KG
RANGE WOULD SUPPORT UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SN DURING THE 6-9HR
PERIOD OF FORCING...BUT IMPACT OF LLVL DRY AIR AS WELL AS MARGINAL
ADDITIONAL DYANMIC SUPPORT RELATED TO THE SHEARING SHRTWV SUGGEST SN
TOTALS WL BE MAINLY UP TO 2 INCHES. IN FACT...THE WPC FCST SHOWS
ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SN UNDER THE FGEN BAND. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY
BE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE UPSLOPING ENE WINDS
MAY AID LLVL MOISTENING/SN AMOUNTS. OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL... FCST
SDNGS SUG ANY PCPN WL BE AT LEAST MIXED WITH RA. BUT MANY OF THE
MODELS SHOW NO PCPN FALLING IN THIS AREA ANYWAY...SO WL PAINT THE
LOWER POPS IN THIS AREA. ONE OTHER IMPACT OF THE LLVL DRY AIR WL TO
SHARPEN THE NRN EDGE OF THE POPS SO THAT THE NRN KEWEENAW MAY SEE
LTL PCPN/SN AS WELL. AFTER THE SHARPER FGEN EXITS THIS AFTN...EXPECT
DIMINISHING POPS. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAVE SHOWN THE PCPN MAY TAPER TO
DRIZZLE...BUT CONCERNED THE DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS MAY LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. CONFINED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE TO MAINLY THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL.
TNGT...WITH DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING DOMINATING...EXPECT
A GENERALLY DRY FCST. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME LGT PCPN
PERSISTING OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE NNE
FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF HI PRES BLDG INTO NW ONTARIO...BUT DRYNESS
OF THE AIRMASS TO THE N FAVORS THE DRIER PCPN FREE GUIDANCE FOR THIS
AREA. BUT WL HOLD ON TO SOME LO CHC POPS FOR SN OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...WHICH WL BE NEAR THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES OF LO PRES MOVING ALONG STALLED SFC FNT OVER
THE LOWER GRT LKS. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLRG ASSOCIATED WITH
THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FM THE N...TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS AT
SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS DURING THE NGT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
ALL FOCUS REMAINS ON A STRONG EARLY SPRING STORM CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THE 00Z
GUIDANCE PROVIDES SOME RESOLUTION IN THE ONGOING DIFFERENCES WITHIN
THE SUITE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
NORTHWARD SOLUTION...BUT HAS TRENDED A TOUCH SOUTHWARD.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH...BUT MADE A
NORTHWARD SHIFT. THE CANADIAN GEM FALLS BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE CAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IS ACTUALLY QUITE SUBTLE...AND OCCURS OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT. FOR THE GFS...THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES ALLOWS FOR
PHASING WITH A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO BEGIN EARLIER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF ATTEMPTS TO CUT OFF THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN KANSAS. IN REALITY...THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN HEAVY SNOW (GFS) AND LITTLE SNOW (ECMWF) FOR MOST OF UPPER
MI IS HINGING ON THE ABILITY OF THE WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO
PICK UP THE APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH...WITH LESS THAN TWO HUNDRED
MILES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE (NORTHERN CO FOR THE GFS VS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CO FOR THE
ECMWF TONIGHT).
SIMPLY PUT...THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MILWAUKEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT PLACEMENT AND TIMING...BOTH TIED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES...REMAIN IN QUESTION.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MI WILL SEE WARNING-LEVEL CONDITIONS WITH
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG NE WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH A LOT OF DAILY TRAVEL TYPICALLY OCCURRING
BETWEEN MENOMINEE AND GREEN BAY...FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
MENOMINEE COUNTY FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER IMPACTS. AS FOR THE NEXT
TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH...DICKINSON...DELTA...AND SOUTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR AT LEAST MODERATE
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ADDS A LIMITING FACTOR ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SNOW. GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS...THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD...BUT WANTED TO
REMAIN MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE MODEL ISSUES.
THE WATCH FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY WAS ISSUED FROM 21Z WED TO 18Z
THU...WITH THE START TIME ENCOMPASSING THE ONSET OF SNOW FOR
THE EVENING COMMUTE.
BEYOND THU...SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF COLDER AIR
AND A COUPLE ROUNDS OF MIXED PRECIP TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SPECIFICS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
AS -SN DIMINISHES/ENDS THIS AFTN AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY ARRIVES
FROM THE N AND E THRU TONIGHT...OCNL TO PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS AT
KCMX/KSAW WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING THEN TO VFR
DURING THE EVENING...BEGINNING FIRST AT KCMX. AT KIWD...MVFR CIGS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TONIGHT. WITH A COOL AIR MASS AND UPSLOPE
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...MVFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP FOR A TIME EARLY
WED MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS RIDGING
SETTLES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY.
WINDS BECOME 20 TO 30 KNOTS FOR ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED EVENING
THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH GALES GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
EAST HALF. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THU
NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS ARRIVE AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FRI. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
401 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS OUR STORM FOR WEDNESDAY WORKING
ACROSS UTAH. AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH COLORADO
TONIGHT...CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.
MAIN CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS A REDUCTION OF POPS WITH
THE EXPECTED LEAD FGEN BAND ALONG WHAT AMOUNTS TO A WARM FRONT
AROUND H7. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/RAP HIGHLIGHT THE PROBLEM
FOR TONIGHT AND IT IS VERY DRY AIR THAT IS JUST SLOW TO BUDGE BELOW
10K FT. THE MODEL THAT IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTENING THIS
LATER IS THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE RAP HAS OUR AREA DRY THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HOPWRF MEMBERS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING COMING INTO
THE WEST UNTIL AROUND 9Z...SO WAS RELUCTANT TO GO AS AGGRESSIVE AS
WHAT THE GFS HAS. FOR POPS THOUGH...DID FOLLOW A TREND OF THE
CAMS...WHICH SHOWS A BAND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN
BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z WITH THAT BAND TRYING TO FILL IN OVER TOWARD RED
WING THROUGH 12Z. FOR P-TYPE...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE 50S
SOUTH OF I-94...WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR US TO COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW...WITH INITIAL PRECIP STARTING OUT AS A MIX THAT WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAINS A
CHALLENGE AS MODEL SOLUTIONS TODAY HAVE ADDED MORE SPREAD TO THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST. IN A NUTSHELL...THE NAM AND GFS HAVE PUSHED
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH...WHICH WOULD
GIVE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TWIN CITIES HEAVY
SNOWFALL...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS PUSHED THINGS QUITE A BIT TO THE
SOUTH. IN FACT...IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...MOST OF THE TWIN CITIES
WILL NOT EVEN SEE SNOW WITH ONLY SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA HAVING HEAVY
SNOW. TRYING TO SORT OUT THE DIFFERENCES STARTS WITH WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CAMS AS WELL AS
THE NAM AND GFS WOULD HAVE A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF
MINNESOTA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND
INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS. THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING IN IA AND SPREADING EAST NORTHEAST INTO WI. THE
DIFFERENCE SEEMS TIED TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE
SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN.
THEREFORE...WITH KEPT THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FROM THE TWIN
CITIES ON SOUTHWEST THROUGH REDWOOD FALLS AND NEW ULM FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS WOULD GIVE
THESE AREAS TWO CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION SNOW. THE FIRST WOULD BE
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND THEN AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE. TOTALS COULD REACH INTO THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE. OFFICIAL
AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS ARE MORE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE. WITH
CONFIDENCE HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST
CENTRAL WI FOR HEAVY SNOW...THE WATCH WAS CHANGED TO A WARNING.
SNOW TOTALS FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH THE HIGH END
AMOUNTS FROM ALBERT LEA TO NEAR EAU CLAIRE. IN ADDITION...THESE
AREAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 25 TO 30
MPH CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SOME TREE DAMAGE MAY
OCCUR DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE QUITE DIFFICULT IN
THESE AREAS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
WITH A NICE BULLSEYE SEEN WITH THE OMEGA NEARLY MAXED OUT IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
THE SNOW WILL END FOR THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE FA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE START ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR 50 DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH IS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES SINCE THERE SHOULD STILL BE
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND LEAD TO CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP WILL BE A WINTRY
MIX...WITH SNOW FAVORED OVERNIGHT...AND RAIN DURING THE DAY AS THE
THERMAL PROFILE WARMS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
TODAY ITS NORTHEAST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. HAVE STARTED
DELAYING BOTH THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS AND SNOW...WITH DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE LOOKING TO IMPACT PRECIP ONSET.
FOR THE LEAD FGEN BAND...GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED ITS START TIME TO
MAINLY AFTER 9Z AND START IT OUT FROM ABOUT REDWOOD FALLS TO RED
WING...THEN LIFT IT NORTH TOWARD MSP/EAU DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH
WHEN THE DRY AIR WILL BE OVERCOME AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START...BUT
STARTED TO TREND US TOWARD A BLEND BETWEEN THE EARLY GFS AND THE
LATE NAM. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON MVFR CIG FORECAST TONIGHT
EITHER...WITH EVERY HOUR THE GFS LAMP SEEMINGLY DELAYS THE ARRIVAL
OF MVFR CIGS FURTHER AND FURTHER AND THE HRRR CIGS ARE NOT OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH DROPPING THE STRATUS OVER NRN WI SW THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WITH THE SNOWSTORM WEDNESDAY LOOK TO DETERIORATE
QUICKLY AROUND 18Z WED.
KMSP...LARGE SPREAD IN MODELS WITH START TIME FOR SNOW WITH
ANYWHERE FROM 12Z ON THE GFS TO 22Z ON THE NAM...SO WENT DOWN THE
MIDDLE FOR NOW. FOR THE MVFR CIGS...RAP/NAM WOULD SAY THE EARLIEST
WE WOULD SEE MVFR CIGS IS 6Z...THOUGH I COULD SEE FURTHER DELAYS
HAPPENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...SN ENDING IN MRNG. AFTN VFR. WINDS N 10-20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
SAT...MVFR. CHC -RA/-SN. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR WIZ024>028.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WIZ023.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ060-062-063-065>070-073>076.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR MNZ077-078-082>085-091>093.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG/RAH
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
155 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
AT 3 AM THIS MORNING THE FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE WHERE
THE MIDWEEK WINTER STORM WILL TRACK HAS SAGGED SOUTH TO NEAR REDWOOD
FALLS...SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES...AND EAU CLAIRE. OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT TODAY. IN
FACT...WITH VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND IT AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN SPOTS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
WESTERN WI. SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT IT
WILL BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY OVERALL.
MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS WHETHER A NARROW FRONTOGENETICALLY-
DRIVEN BAND OF RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS AND WHERE. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS EVENING TO EAST
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE LARGELY UNSUPPORTIVE OF SNOW UNTIL THE
COLUMN COOLS AS CAA BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS...MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AFTER 09Z...AND BY THEN THE BAND MAY ALREADY BE
WEAKENING. PERHAPS A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH IN SPOTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MORE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN
THE TRACK OF THE STORM WILL YIELD HIGHER SNOW TOTALS NORTH...INTO
THE TWIN CITIES AREA AND MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND REMAINS UNCLEAR AND
FURTHER MOVEMENT OF THE STORM COULD OCCUR IN LATER FORECASTS.
WE DID ADD A FEW COUNTIES TO THE NORTH BECAUSE OF THE MAJORITY OF
DETERMINISTIC MODELS(SAVE THE ECMWF) HAVE REALLY CONVERGED ON
THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT.
SAID MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER AND MAINTAIN A CLOSED CIRCULATION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
WISCONSIN. IT RETAINS A 700MB CIRCULATION WITH A DEFINITE
DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IN THE INTERIM...
CENTRAL MN IS UNDER THE GUN AS A NICE FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED
BAND DEVELOPS FROM SOUTHWEST MN INTO THE METRO AREA IN THE
MORNING. THIS FORCING IS RATHER HIGH/600MB OR ABOVE...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE DOES SATURATE AS THE TROUGH/FORCING APPROACHES AND THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET REMAINS LOCKED OVER
NORTHERN MN. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS ALSO DIRECTED NORTH
WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION IN THE GROWTH ZONE. THE SREF HAS BEEN
LIFTING THE DGZ FARTHER NORTH WITH EACH OF ITS MODEL RUNS AND NOW
ALSO HAS FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH AN HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS AREA. WE SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AND THEN REDIRECT ITSELF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND INTO WISCONSIN AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT.
SNOWFALL FORECAST AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR TO BE IN THE 6 TO 12 INCH
RANGE IN THE WATCH AREA. THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS SHOULD DEVELOP
INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
MAINLY ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN MN AND ALONG I94 IN WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS. WE COULD SEE
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WE MENTIONED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG I90 AS WELL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STORM EXITS THE EAST PORTION OF THE FA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL...ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE THE FORECAST SNOW OVER THE SOUTH AND
EAST CWA.
THE LONGER TERM STILL HAS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A MIXED RAIN/SNOW EVENT IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL RANGE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
TODAY ITS NORTHEAST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. HAVE STARTED
DELAYING BOTH THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS AND SNOW...WITH DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE LOOKING TO IMPACT PRECIP ONSET.
FOR THE LEAD FGEN BAND...GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED ITS START TIME TO
MAINLY AFTER 9Z AND START IT OUT FROM ABOUT REDWOOD FALLS TO RED
WING...THEN LIFT IT NORTH TOWARD MSP/EAU DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH
WHEN THE DRY AIR WILL BE OVERCOME AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START...BUT
STARTED TO TREND US TOWARD A BLEND BETWEEN THE EARLY GFS AND THE
LATE NAM. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON MVFR CIG FORECAST TONIGHT
EITHER...WITH EVERY HOUR THE GFS LAMP SEEMINGLY DELAYS THE ARRIVAL
OF MVFR CIGS FURTHER AND FURTHER AND THE HRRR CIGS ARE NOT OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH DROPPING THE STRATUS OVER NRN WI SW THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WITH THE SNOWSTORM WEDNESDAY LOOK TO DETERIORATE
QUICKLY AROUND 18Z WED.
KMSP...LARGE SPREAD IN MODELS WITH START TIME FOR SNOW WITH
ANYWHERE FROM 12Z ON THE GFS TO 22Z ON THE NAM...SO WENT DOWN THE
MIDDLE FOR NOW. FOR THE MVFR CIGS...RAP/NAM WOULD SAY THE EARLIEST
WE WOULD SEE MVFR CIGS IS 6Z...THOUGH I COULD SEE FURTHER DELAYS
HAPPENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...SN ENDING IN MRNG. AFTN VFR. WINDS N 10-20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
SAT...MVFR. CHC -RA/-SN. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WIZ015-016-023>028.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ060-062-063-067>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG