Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/21/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016

BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE
HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS/PALMER DIVIDE
AREA...WITH SUNSHINE FILLING IN BEHIND. MOST OF THIS LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE GONE BY NOON...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS 12Z DENVER
SOUNDING WAS STILL QUITE UNSTABLE. IN FACT...A FEW CUMULUS ALREADY
POPPING UP WHERE MORE SUNSHINE HAS OCCURRED.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM TODAY WITH THE REINFORCING COLD
AIR SHOT LAST NIGHT. MAY NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
SNOW COVERED AREAS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS CONTINUES ITS
GRIP ON OUR WEATHER THIS MORNING. STRONG CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
TROUGH HAS DRIVEN ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR DOWN
FROM WYOMING AND ACRS NERN COLORADO DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
RADAR IS CURRENTLY DETECTING A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL
FROM THE FRONT RANGE IN NRN LARIMER COUNTY TO CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTY. HOWEVER...ONLY THE FORT COLLINS OBSERVATION SITE HAS
INDICATED ANY SNOW REACHING THE GROUND AS OF YET. NAM AND WRF
MODELS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS BAND
OF PRECIP MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND OVER THE DENVER
METRO AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NAM AND WRF INDICATE
UPWARDS OF 0.2 INCH OF SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA AS WELL AS ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE ACRS ERN DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES BY 15Z
THIS MORNING. A LOT OF FUSS ABOUT A DUSTING OF SNOW...HOWEVER
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...MODELS INDICATED NOTHING OF THE SORT. SO
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ACRS THE NERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
MORNING. HAVE ALSO TRENDED WINDS ON THE PLAINS TO A N-NELY
COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WEAKENING AS THEY TURN TO A SELY DIRECTION...
WHILE FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS WINDS ARE FCST TO BECOME NWLY AND
INCREASE IN SPEED. SHOULD ALSO SEE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THIS LATEST SURGE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
TODAY NOT MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION. LOOK FOR ONLY MID 30S/LOWER 40S ON THE PLAINS AND
GENERALLY 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. OH YES...THE FEW REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD PRETTY MUCH COME TO
AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRYING ALOFT.

TONIGHT...CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF MIN TEMPS WELL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS COLORADO ON SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  BY MONDAY...THE
SNOW WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE BIG WARMING
ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF
30-40KT SO COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER EXPOSED EAST
SLOPES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE QUITE VARIED IN THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL THE
STRONGEST WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
BY LATE WEDNEDAY. THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW
OVER NEBRASKA WHILE GFS SOLUTIONS IS PAINTING AN IN BETWEEN
SOLUTION AS AN OPEN WAVE. WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE IN THIS
PERIOD AS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A PERIOD OF PRECIP ALONG WITH
DROPPING TEMPERATURES WITH COLD FRONT. IF THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS
CORRECT COULD HAVE ANOTHER SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE
EAST SLOPES. ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT ILS
APPROACHES AT KDEN DUE TO SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL STILL THINK MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AS AIRMASS DRIES. WINDS A BIT CHALLENGING TOO...BUT WITH
ENOUGH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION THE NORTHERLY WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT DEVELOPING BY 18Z-20Z. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO NORMAL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 01Z-02Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAJRENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 413 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS CONTINUES ITS
GRIP ON OUR WEATHER THIS MORNING. STRONG CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
TROUGH HAS DRIVEN ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR DOWN
FROM WYOMING AND ACRS NERN COLORADO DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
RADAR IS CURRENTLY DETECTING A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL
FROM THE FRONT RANGE IN NRN LARIMER COUNTY TO CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTY. HOWEVER...ONLY THE FORT COLLINS OBSERVATION SITE HAS
INDICATED ANY SNOW REACHING THE GROUND AS OF YET. NAM AND WRF
MODELS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS BAND
OF PRECIP MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND OVER THE DENVER
METRO AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NAM AND WRF INDICATE
UPWARDS OF 0.2 INCH OF SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA AS WELL AS ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE ACRS ERN DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES BY 15Z
THIS MORNING. A LOT OF FUSS ABOUT A DUSTING OF SNOW...HOWEVER
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...MODELS INDICATED NOTHING OF THE SORT. SO
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ACRS THE NERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
MORNING. HAVE ALSO TRENDED WINDS ON THE PLAINS TO A N-NELY
COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WEAKENING AS THEY TURN TO A SELY DIRECTION...
WHILE FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS WINDS ARE FCST TO BECOME NWLY AND
INCREASE IN SPEED. SHOULD ALSO SEE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THIS LATEST SURGE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
TODAY NOT MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION. LOOK FOR ONLY MID 30S/LOWER 40S ON THE PLAINS AND
GENERALLY 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. OH YES...THE FEW REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD PRETTY MUCH COME TO
AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRYING ALOFT.

TONIGHT...CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF MIN TEMPS WELL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS COLORADO ON SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  BY MONDAY...THE
SNOW WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE BIG WARMING
ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF
30-40KT SO COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER EXPOSED EAST
SLOPES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE QUITE VARIED IN THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL THE
STRONGEST WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
BY LATE WEDNEDAY. THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW
OVER NEBRASKA WHILE GFS SOLUTIONS IS PAINTING AN IN BETWEEN
SOLUTION AS AN OPEN WAVE. WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE IN THIS
PERIOD AS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A PERIOD OF PRECIP ALONG WITH
DROPPING TEMPERATURES WITH COLD FRONT. IF THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS
CORRECT COULD HAVE ANOTHER SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE
EAST SLOPES. ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016

CEILINGS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH WEAK N/NELY UPSLOPE FLOW. COULD SEE CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND
3000-4000FT AT KDEN..KBJC AND KAPA FOR A FEW HRS AROUND 12Z...AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW FLURRIES. NOTHING MORE THAN THAT. BY LATE
MORNING SHOULD SEE WINDS SLOWLY TURNING EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS UNDER 12KTS. SHOULD ALSO SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS BEFORE 18Z. SKIES
OVERNIGHT WILL CLEAR WITH A LIGHT S-SWLY WIND PATTERN OVER THE
METRO AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 729 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TO NEAR BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY REACHING EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY PULLING A
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
SATURDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD FASTER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS DELAWARE AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY. WE ARE GETTING
REPORTS OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN SOME SLEET EARLIER. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW JERSEY ESPECIALLY TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW TO START THEN
MORE OF A MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN. THE RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR AWHILE LONGER BEFORE A TRANSITION TO MORE
SNOW AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING BETTER. A NEW SNOW MAP HAS ALSO
BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB. TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS AND WINDS WERE
ALSO TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THEN SOME BLENDING
IN OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS DONE.

THE HRRR RAMPS THINGS UP BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z AND 06Z WITH THE GREATEST
AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHCS ARE THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO. THERE LOOKS TO BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE WEST, BUT IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THAT CUTOFF WILL BE. WE DO NOTE THAT THE DEW POINTS ARE MUCH
MUCH LOWER ATTM THE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE GOES. AS AN EXAMPLE
AT 21Z, THE DEW POINT AT MOUNT POCONO WAS 3F WHILE AT GEORGETOWN
IT WAS 38F.

WITH NATURAL DIURNAL COOLING, A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS CHANGE WILL BE ENHANCED WHERE PRECIP COMES
DOWN HEAVIEST, WHICH HAS THE BEST CHC OF OCCURRING ALONG THE
COAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS IS, WITH
THESE AREAS HAVING THE GREATEST CHC OF OBTAINING THE HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS. THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON NON-PAVED
SURFACES, HOWEVER SOME BANDING LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES FOR A TIME AND
THIS IS WHEN AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS CAN OCCUR. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING SNOW AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING ERLY IN THE PD, BUT WILL
END BY LATE MRNG WITH IMPROVING CONDS AND CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SUN BY
AFTN.  THERE WILL BE A GUSTY NW WIND, WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 20 TO
25 MPH INLAND AND HIGHER CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH INCOMING RIDGING AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND IN THE MID LEVELS. THE HIGHER PRESSURE IS TRANSIENT AND
WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MODELS
VARY, BUT A FEW SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT DOWN AS FAR SOUTH AS
EASTERN PA AND NJ. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTHWARD,
PUTTING US IN THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO A COLD FROPA. THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS UNCERTAIN. THE WINDOW IS BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER OF
THE WEEKEND DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES...CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL ON
TUESDAY. AVERAGES SHOULD WARM TO ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR FRIDAY
BECAUSE THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT IS IN QUESTION. IF IT`S FASTER,
TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME CLIMBING ONCE AGAIN TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION...THE REGION WILL BE PRECIP FREE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WHAT TIME OF
DAY THE FRONT PASSES WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON ANY POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, AT TIMES, TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
GUSTS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
GUSTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COULD RAMP UP AGAIN ON
SUNDAY IF THE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH WORKS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC.

IMPACTS...NO WIDESPREAD IMPACTS THIS COMING WEEK ARE EXPECTED. WITH
THE BACK DOOR FRONT POTENTIALLY DIPPING INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
WEEK, WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE POOL AT THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF IT. THIS SITUATION MIGHT YIELD SOME MORNING SPRING FOG THAT
COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES DURING THE A.M. RUSH. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW
WEAK INSTABILITY ATTM, WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR KRDG AND KABE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE IN FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT.
IF THAT OCCURS, BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. NE WIND WILL
BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN WILL BECOME NW ON MON AND INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT.

FOR KTTN, KPNE, KPHL AND KILG...CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP
IN THE 00Z TAFS BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND HRRR
MODELS. VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WILL DECREASE TO IFR AS
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z, SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z AS PRECIP DEPARTS, THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT FOG MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE ON MON GUSTING AS HIGH AS
25 KT.

FOR KMIV AND KACY...WITH THE 00Z TAFS, MOVED UP THE TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND HRRR
MODELS. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
09Z BEFORE SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO
LIGHTEN UP AFTER 06Z, THOUGH LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH 12Z,
EVEN AFTER THE SNOW HAS STOPPED. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
AFTER 12Z AS DEEPER MIXING WILL HELP ERODE THE CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY 12Z AND COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25KT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND MONDAY NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON ON BOTH DAYS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT IS LOW ATTM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED. WINDS
EXPECTED TO GO NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT. SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
530 PM UPDATE...SEAS WERE INCREASED BY ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

THE GLW FOR THE SRN WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE SCA FOR THE
NRN WATERS AND LWR DEL BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU MON.
ADDITIONALLY UPR DEL BAY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SCA AS CONDS HAVE
BEEN CLOSE TO SCA AT BRANDYWINE AND WITH NWLY FLOW EXPECTED ON
MON, WIND COULD BECOME EVEN HIGHER ON THE NRN PORTION OF THE DEL
BAY.

OUTLOOK...
CONTINUING TO LOOK LIKE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD...

MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SCA VERY LIKELY. GALES
A POSSIBILITY. GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH AND BACKING TO SOUTHWEST
BY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW. POSSIBLE SCA THOUGH THE 25 KT GUSTS
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE VERY NEARSHORE WATERS SINCE IT WILL BE MILD
AIR OVERRIDING COOLER MID-UPPER 40S SSTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO OUR WATERS NOR THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF THE BACK DOOR DROPS INTO
THE REGION THE WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY. REGARDLESS OF TIMING, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN BREEZY WITH 2 SEPARATE FRONTS IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING AND THE HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE TREND OF A SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE
LOW, BOTH GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS
FALLING SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS BY A HALF A FOOT OR MORE.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE FURTHER WEST TRACK, IS THAT WATER LEVELS
WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE WATER LEVELS
OF THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE (PREVIOUSLY THE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING
WAS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS).

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY WITH THE ANOMALIES FOR THIS
EVENINGS HIGH TIDE, BUT STILL THINK THE THREAT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE HWO.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALL DAILY RECORDS

    MAR 20

ACY 5.0 1914

THE FOLLOWING WAS GENERATED BY SARAH JOHNSON ET AL, ALL BELOW
PREDICATED ON OFFICIAL MEASURABLE SNOW.

IF PHILADELPHIA MEASURES TONIGHT IT WILL BE THE 7TH TIME SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN THAT THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW HAS OCCURRED AFTER
THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR. THE OTHER YEARS WERE 1892,
1921, 1928, 1967 1990 AND 2000.

ALL OF THESE YEARS HAD THEIR EARLIER THAN NORMAL FIRST 80 DEGREE
DAY.

ABE: 6 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1963, 1967, 1978, 1986,  1990, 2014)

ACY: 2 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1990)

ILG: 4 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1985, 1990, 2000)

MARCH THROUGH 19 DAYS IS AVERAGING ABOUT 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL... WARMEST NORTH.

AS OF NOW WE ARE TRACKING 4TH WARMEST MARCH IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE
FOR PHILADELPHIA DATING BACK TO 1874. WE`VE RUN CALCULATIONS BASED
ON TODAY 330 AM FORECAST THROUGH THE 26TH, THE FTPRHA GFS 2M
MAX/MIN FROM D8-11 AND THEN NORMAL LOW HI FOR THE 31ST AND PROJECTING
PHILADELPHIA EASILY A PROBABLE TOP 10 WARMEST. THE AVG MAY SLIP A
BIT FROM THE CURRENT 50.1 DEGREES (PLUS 8.9 DEGREES SO FAR) BUT WE
ARE PROJECTING TO BE ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN
OF 43.5. IF ITS 50 DEGREES... THIS WOULD BE THE 4TH WARMEST MARCH
BEHIND

52.5 1921
52.2 2012
51.2 1945
AND JUST AHEAD OF 49.8 IN 1946.

ABE THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED #4 WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO
1922

ACY THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 6TH WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO
1874

ILG THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 10TH, RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1895.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
     020-022-026-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 545 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO
SUNDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN
PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A
GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THE SAME TIME. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE
AREAS WHERE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING AND THE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN THICKER. IN ADDITION, QUITE THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE CURRENT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM LIFTING TO MUCH FARTHER NORTH. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH SOME
SNOW MIXING IN FOR SOME AREAS AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS TAKING
PLACE. THE SNOW SEEMS TO OCCUR MORE WITH HIGHER RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES. IN ADDITION, THE LEADING EDGE OF THE VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS RESULTING IN ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND WE HAVE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG THEREFORE IT WAS NOT ADDED TO THE FORECAST
ATTM /NOWCAST HAS IT MENTIONED/.

OTHERWISE, LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THE NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A BAND OF 700-800 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH ABOUT
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME UPTICK IN THE
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY FOR A TIME, AND IF THIS OCCURS SNOW MAY
BECOME THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR AREAS UNDER ANY HEAVIER BAND.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NONE.
AN INITIAL WAVE AND ITS LIFT LOOKS TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT,
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF AS WELL LATE.
THE POPS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO FINE TUNE THE NORTHERN GRADIENT SOME
AND ALSO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ON SUN, POPS WILL INCREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BEGINS ITS
NEWD TREK. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER SRN AND ERN AREAS. LTST GUID
HAS BROUGHT PRECIP FURTHER WWD THIS CYCLE, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A SHARP CUTOFF AND ITS STILL A QUESTION AS TO WHERE THIS WILL
OCCUR. DON`T EXPECT VERY MUCH, IF ANY OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS.

AGAIN, TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL, SIMILAR TODAY, SO UNLESS PRECIP FALLS
HARD, ITS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY RAIN DURG THE DAY OR A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX THAT WOULD STICK MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES, CARS ETC.  THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ITS TOUGH DURG THE DAY TO GET APPRECIABLE SNOW DUE TO
THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE UNLESS IT COMES DOWN HARD.  THE BEST CHCS FOR
THE HARD FALLING SNOW WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE
EVENING HOURS. MONDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH A BREEZY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW. CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UP TICK. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO ALL THE AREA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND
FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES...ITS BEEN VERY WARM SO FAR THIS MONTH...6 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW A BRIEF COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK BEFORE IT WARMS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END. FOR
REFERENCE, THE NORMALS FOR PHILLY DURING THE PERIOD ARE LOW TO MID
50S AND MID 30S. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE
WARMING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...THIS EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES THREE PRECIPITATION
REFERENCES. THE FIRST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITTLE IF
ANY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE SECOND REFERENCE IS MIDWEEK ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. THE THIRD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME
WITH FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.

WINDS...NORTH WINDS MAINLY 10 OR LESS SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING
NORTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY ON MONDAY. THE WINDS, 10 OR LESS, WILL
START TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THEY COULD GUST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEK.

IMPACTS...NOTHING WIDESPREAD SHAPING UP ATTM. WHILE WE COULD SEE
SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE SNOW, THEY SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ATTM, IMPACTS APPEAR THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. WE COULD SEE SOME MORNING SPRING FOG LATER IN
THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT IT`T TOO SOON TO DETERMINE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A TIME
OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM KPHL ON SOUTH AND EASTWARD THIS EVENING. AN
AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE STEADIEST JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF KPHL /DRY FOR KRDG, KABE AND KTTN/. KMIV AND KACY HAVE THE
GREATER CHANCE OF HAVING MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. OUR CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER ON THE VISIBILITY AS THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY OVERALL
MAY BE RATHER LIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, HOWEVER FAVORING
NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR CEILINGS NEAR AND NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL OVERALL, WITH
LOWER CEILINGS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE
SHIFTS WESTWARD SOME. AS A RESULT, RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED
FROM NEAR KPNE-KPHL-KILG ON EASTWARD WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
AWHILE MOSTLY AT KMIV AND KACY. OUR CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE
HOWEVER WITH THE IMPACTS AND TIMING AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR, LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR FOR A TIME IN
MOSTLY SNOW VCNTY KACY. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
15- 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WATERS THRU THE PD DUE
TO INCREASING WIND AND SEAS AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
CAROLINAS, MOVES OFF THE CST AND THEN UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THU
SUN. ATTM, IT DOES NOT APPEAR GALE CRITERIA WILL BE MET, SO THE
GALE WATCH IS BEING DROPPED.

OUTLOOK...
SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FAVORED WINDS LESS THAN 35 KT. WENT WITH A
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER BAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. A SCA
LOOKS LIKELY. MAYBE GALES MONDAY EVENING.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...DIMINISHING WIND AND HEADLINES NOT
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SCA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
EXPECT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY FAVORABLE,
AND WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL OFF SHORE, WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS OUR LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR BOTH THE SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER AS A
SLIGHT SHIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD
INCREASE THE THREAT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 414 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN, PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY, MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY, AND INTO QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH OF OUR
AREA AT THE SAME TIME. THE COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN LOW,
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WHAT LOOKS TO BE A BUSY RADAR SCOPE IS A BIT MISLEADING AS MUCH OF
THE PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS AND IT KEEPS MOST
OF THE PRECIP THRU THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT S AND E OF PHL.
HAVE TRENDED THE FCST AND POPS IN THAT DIRECTION.

ALSO, WITH TEMPS INTO THE 40S IN THE AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE PRECIP, HAVE KEPT IT MAINLY LIQUID RAIN THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVE, BEFORE A MIX AND CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
OVER NRN AREAS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD LATER TONIGHT.

ALL OF THIS PRECIP IS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CST TONIGHT AND THEN
NEWD OFF THE MID-ATLC SEABOARD THRU MON.  THERE APPEARS TO BE A LULL
IN THE ACTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCD WITH THE LOW
ITSELF INCREASES ON SUN.

HAVE GENLY LOWERED POPS ACRS THE BOARD, ESPECIALLY N AND W, WITH THE
CUTOFF ACRS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HIGHEST POPS ARE S AND E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ON SUN, POPS WILL INCREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BEGINS ITS
NEWD TREK. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER SRN AND ERN AREAS. LTST GUID
HAS BROUGHT PRECIP FURTHER WWD THIS CYCLE, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A SHARP CUTOFF AND ITS STILL A QUESTION AS TO WHERE THIS WILL
OCCUR. DON`T EXPECT VERY MUCH, IF ANY OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS.

AGAIN, TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL, SIMILAR TODAY, SO UNLESS PRECIP FALLS
HARD, ITS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY RAIN DURG THE DAY OR A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX THAT WOULD STICK MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES, CARS ETC.  THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ITS TOUGH DURG THE DAY TO GET APPRECIABLE SNOW DUE TO
THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE UNLESS IT COMES DOWN HARD.  THE BEST CHCS FOR
THE HARD FALLING SNOW WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE
EVENING HOURS. MONDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH A BREEZY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW. CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ROMAIN IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UP TICK. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
QUEBEC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO
ALL THE AREA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND FEATURE COOLER
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES...ITS BEEN VERY WARM SO FAR THIS MONTH...6 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW A BRIEF COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK BEFORE IT WARMS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END. FOR
REFERENCE, THE NORMALS FOR PHILLY DURING THE PERIOD ARE LOW TO MID
50S AND MID 30S. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE
WARMING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...THIS EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES THREE PRECIPITATION
REFERENCES. THE FIRST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITTLE IF
ANY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE SECOND REFERENCE IS MIDWEEK ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. THE THIRD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME
WITH FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.

WINDS...NORTH WINDS MAINLY 10 OR LESS SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING
NORTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY ON MONDAY. THE WINDS, 10 OR LESS, WILL
START TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THEY COULD GUST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEK.

IMPACTS...NOTHING WIDESPREAD SHAPING UP ATTM. WHILE WE COULD SEE
SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE SNOW, THEY SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ATTM, IMPACTS APPEAR THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. WE COULD SEE SOME MORNING SPRING FOG LATER IN
THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT IT`T TOO SOON TO DETERMINE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE GENLY EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD FOR THE NRN AND WRN TAF
SITES.  FOR THE I-95 TAF SITES, IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY VFR.  THERE IS
A CHC SOME HEAVIER PRECIP COULD WORK IN AND BRIEFLY DROP CONDS TO
MVFR THIS LATE THIS AFTN OR EVE.  HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  THERE
IS A BETTER CHC OF SOME MVFR CIGS SUN AFTN AS LOW PRES MOVES UP THE
MID ATLC CST.

FOR THE SRN AND ERN TAF SITES, VFR CONDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR
THIS EVE INTO ERLY OVERNIGHT.  THEN THERE SHUD BE A LULL DURG THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE MVFR RETURNS DURG THE DAY ON SUN.

THE BEST CHCS FOR PRECIP ARE S AND E OF KPHL.  IT LOOKS TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY -RA BUT SOME -SN OR SOME COMBINATION CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY DURG THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON SUN A NE WIND WILL INCREASE AND CUD GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KTS
ESPECIALLY FOR KTTN AND POINTS S AND E.

OUTLOOK...

EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR, LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR FOR A TIME IN
MOSTLY SNOW VCNTY KACY. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS COULD BE GUSTY 15-
25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WATERS THRU THE TAF PD
DUE TO INCREASING WIND AND SEAS AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
CAROLINAS, MOVES OFF THE CST AND THEN UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THU
SUN. ATTM, IT DOES NOT APPEAR GALE CRITERIA WILL BE MET, SO THE
GALE WATCH IS BEING DROPPED.

OUTLOOK...
SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FAVORED WINDS LESS THAN 35 KT. WENT WITH A
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER BAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. A SCA
LOOKS LIKELY. MAYBE GALES MONDAY EVENING.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...DIMINISHING WIND AND HEADLINES NOT
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SCA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
EXPECT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY FAVORABLE,
AND WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL OFF SHORE, WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS OUR LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR BOTH THE SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER AS A
SLIGHT SHIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD
INCREASE THE THREAT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 113 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA
CAPES THIS EVENING. THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHENS
IN ITS PASSAGE EAST OF CAPE COD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. THAT HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT FORMS FROM NEAR LONG ISLAND
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
AFTN, SO HAVE TRENDED BACK ONSET AND POPS A BIT DURG THE DAY.

THERE IS A BIT OF A DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE HRRR AND THE NAM/GFS.
THE HRRR HAS LESS PRECIP COVERAGE DURG THE DAY TODAY (WHICH SEEMS
MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS), WHILE THE NAM AND
GFS REALLY WANT TO RAMP THINGS UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THERE IS A SWATH OF PRECIP BACK OF MD, BUT MUCH OF IT IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP CONFINED
OVER THE DELMARVA AND SERN NJ FROM LATE AFTN INTO THE EVE HOURS.
HAVE TRENDED THE FCST IN THIS DIRECTION.

ALSO, TEMPS HAVE RISEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY FCST.
WHILE THEY PROBABLY WON`T RISE MUCH FURTHER, HAVE OPTED TO
INTRODUCE MORE RAIN AND LESS SNOW AT LEAST THRU THE AFTN. IT IS
QUITE DIFFICULT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH SPRING SOLAR INSOLATION,
EVEN THRU CLOUDS TO GET FULL ON SNOW, UNLESS IT IS COMING DOWN
HARD. SO FAR, THAT IS NOT THE CASE, EVEN IN PLACES OVER MD, WHERE
PRECIP IS FALLING. TEMPS ACRS OUR AREA RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S TO
THE MID 40S.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN A STRAIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OR MIX
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE REMOVED THE SLEET FROM THE GRIDS AS THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER
ALOFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE MELTING AND WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE WE
OPTED TO STICK WITH JUST RAIN AND SNOW AT THIS JUNCTURE.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME HEAVIER BANDS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THE SET UP APPEARS TO
BE FROM AROUND WILMINGTON, DELAWARE THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA.

HOWEVER, THE GROUND IS FAIRLY WARM AND WITH THE STRONG SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR, SNOW WILL NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO AROUND
THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW REMAINS OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS TRENDING DRYER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW, WE HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE POPS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. WE CONTINUE TO MENTION
SOME CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT BUT FOCUS OUR POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND EVEN WITH THE OVERCAST
SKIES, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP QUITE A BIT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IF THE GEFS ENDS UP CORRECT IN CONSTANTLY FCSTG EAST OF ALL OTHER
MODELS THE PAST FEW DAYS INCLUDING THE SREF, EPS...IT WILL BE
QUITE NOTEWORTHY.

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MIDWEST SUNDAY WILL CROSS THE
EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING. AN IMPT PIECE IN THIS FCST IS THE DVLPT
OF SIGNIFICANT HT FALLS IN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING SWINGING
PVA/PIVA NEWD THROUGH OUR THE DELMARVA AROUND 09Z/MONDAY IN THE
FORM OF A 160M 12 HR HFC. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS EARLY IN THE
WEEK AND BACKS TO SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WARMING
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST WHILE A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES
MOVE INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION.

TEMPERATURES:  ITS BEEN VERY WARM SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MARCH...6 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW A BRIEF COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY
THIS WEEK BEFORE IT WARMS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEKS END. CALENDAR
DAY AVERAGES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THE FORECAST WAS MOSTLY
GFS MOS SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY NAM WAS
DISMISSED IN THE FCST PROCESS WHEN CONSIDERED AGAINST THE MULTI
MODEL AND WPC WETTER AND COOLER SUNDAY SCENARIO. A 50 50 BLEND
00Z/19 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT- MONDAY, THEREAFTER
THE 00Z/19 GFS MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY. THERE WAS NOT
TIME TO UPDATE WED NIGHT- FRIDAY WITH WPC OR SUPERBLEND. WE`LL
ATTEMPT TO COMPLETE THAT PROCESS AROUND 630 AM.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...APPROACHING STRONG SHORT WAVE WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH FOCUSING SOME INFLOW SHOULD ALLOW PCPN TO REDEVELOP NORTHWARD
DURING THE DAY. WHILE SFC TEMPS AT TIMES MAY CAUSE LIGHTER PCPN TO
OCCUR AS RAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL HAVE TO BE A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER PCPN...AT LEAST JUST TO THE E OF I-95 AND IT WILL BE WET
SNOW. THEN THE QUESTION...WITH ABV FREEZING TEMPS... HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE. WE DONT KNOW FOR SURE BUT OUR GRIDS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
ADJACENT OFFICE COLLABORATION... WPC GUIDANCE...BLENDED SNOW RATIOS
AND WPC DAY 2 QPF. NO ADVY AT THIS TIME, THOUGH ITS STILL CONCEIVABLE
WE`LL EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADVISE FOR NNJ LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE UKMET/GGEM AND ECMWF ALL CONTINUE SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER
THAN THE GFS (BOTH 06Z GFS/NAM ARE DRY SUNDAY WHICH IS DISTURBING
IN LIGHT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALOFT). ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS
OFF THE MID ATLC COAST MAY ALLOW MORE DEEPENING OF THE NEWD MOVG
SFC LOW.

POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT TOWARD THE POCONOS WHERE WE`RE LESS SURE
OF THE FCST SNOW AMOUNTS AND MY CONFIDENCE ON SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS HIGHEST IN NNJ. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE BECAUSE OF
LARGE MODEL SPREAD.


SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE I-95 EWD AND SHOULD ACCUMULATE
IN NNJ IF ITS SNOWING AT ALL. UKMET/GGEM/ECMWF WERE THE REASONING
FOR INCREASED POPS THERE. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW AROUND 12Z MONDAY WILL SOON BE DONE.
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW. CHILLY.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...FAIR AND BEGINNING TO WARM UP A TAD....NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...GENERAL SW FLOW....BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED THIS
PART OF THE FCST SINCE IT WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY. WE SEE A
COMPLICATING WARM FRONT NEARBY.

NEXT TWO PGHS FROM THE DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY .

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW, WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT
DOES NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR NORTHWARD AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM BY THIS TIME, WHICH WILL
KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION RAIN. THERE COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
LTST LIMITED GUID SUGGESTS A LATER ONSET TIME OF PRECIP WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT KEEPING VFR LONGER INTO THE AFTN. HOWEVER, WILL WAIT
TO SEE THE ARRIVAL OF MORE OF THE MRNG GUID BEFORE MAKING CHANGES
TO THE TAFS. A DOWNWARD TREND IS ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY S, BUT IT
CUD END UP BEING A FEW HOURS LATER.

PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE CONFINED S AND E OF KPHL ATTM. ALSO
TEMPS ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. AS A RESULT,
HAVE CHANGED THE PREVAILING GROUPS IN THE TAFS TO -RA, WITH TEMPO
FOR SNRA. CONFIDENCE, EVEN IN THAT, DURG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IS
LOW. IF PRECIP COMES DOWN HARD ENOUGH THEN THERE COULD BE SOME
SNOW, BUT OTHERWISE, PROBABLY NOT.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ANY
REMAINING RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW, MAINLY KPHL AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SNOW. PRECIPITATION MAY LET UP FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE FILLING BACK IN. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS, MAINLY
TOWARDS THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY-EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR, LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR FOR A
TIME IN MOSTLY SNOW VCNTY KACY. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY 15-25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING W-NW WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 ROSE ABOVE 5 FT AN HOUR AGO, THEN CAME BACK DOWN BUT IS
HOVERING AROUND 5 FT ATTM. THEREFORE, HAVE OPTED TO RAISE SCA FLAG
FOR THE SRN CSTL WATERS ATTM.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT AND WE WILL
SEE WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL START
TO BUILD AND WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FEET. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THIS IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AND WE
HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING AT 22Z. THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL START ON THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY AT 03Z.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND GALE FORCE GUSTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE STARTING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND WE HAVE KEPT THE GALE WATCH IN
THOSE AREAS AND HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE FOR THE SNJ
AND DE ATLC WATERS. SINCE THERE WAS STILL UNCERTAINTY AT 330 AM,
HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO SUNDAY.
ODDS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE NEED TO CONVERT THIS WATCH TO AN SCA IN A
FUTURE FORECAST.

ELSEWHERE...AN SCA SHOULD EASILY VERIFY IN LOWER DE BAY AND THE NNJ
WATERS. THE SCA CONDITIONS LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT AND SO AN SCA
SHOULD BE NEEDED.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...DIMINISHING WIND AND HEADLINES NOT
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 918 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA
CAPES THIS EVENING. THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHENS
IN ITS PASSAGE EAST OF CAPE COD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. THAT HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT FORMS FROM NEAR LONG ISLAND
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE DAY WILL START OFF WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY, CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THE BASES WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING COASTAL SYSTEM.

THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
AFTN, SO HAVE TRENDED BACK ONSET AND POPS A BIT DURG THE DAY. WILL
WAIT TO MAKE FURTHER CHANGES UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE MRNG
GUIDANCE SUITE.

THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO PUSH THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
EAST, AND IN TURN WE ARE SEEING MORE OF A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE
BOARD. WITH THAT IN MIND, WE HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS AND MORE TOWARDS THE COAST, WHILE LOWERING PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN A STRAIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OR MIX
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE REMOVED THE SLEET FROM THE GRIDS AS THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER ALOFT
WHICH WOULD INDICATE MELTING AND WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE WE OPTED TO
STICK WITH JUST RAIN AND SNOW AT THIS JUNCTURE.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME HEAVIER BANDS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THE SET UP APPEARS TO
BE FROM AROUND WILMINGTON, DELAWARE THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA. MODELS SHOW THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW AND COULD FALL AT A GOOD CLIP FOR A FEW HOURS.

HOWEVER, THE GROUND IS FAIRLY WARM AND WITH THE STRONG SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR, SNOW WILL NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO AROUND
THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW REMAINS OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS TRENDING DRYER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW, WE HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE POPS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. WE CONTINUE TO MENTION
SOME CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT BUT FOCUS OUR POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND EVEN WITH THE OVERCAST
SKIES, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP QUITE A BIT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IF THE GEFS ENDS UP CORRECT IN CONSTANTLY FCSTG EAST OF ALL OTHER
MODELS THE PAST FEW DAYS INCLUDING THE SREF, EPS...IT WILL BE
QUITE NOTEWORTHY.

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MIDWEST SUNDAY WILL CROSS THE
EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING. AN IMPT PIECE IN THIS FCST IS THE DVLPT
OF SIGNIFICANT HT FALLS IN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING SWINGING
PVA/PIVA NEWD THROUGH OUR THE DELMARVA AROUND 09Z/MONDAY IN THE
FORM OF A 160M 12 HR HFC. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS EARLY IN THE
WEEK AND BACKS TO SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WARMING
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST WHILE A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES
MOVE INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION.

TEMPERATURES:  ITS BEEN VERY WARM SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MARCH...6 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW A BRIEF COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY
THIS WEEK BEFORE IT WARMS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEKS END. CALENDAR
DAY AVERAGES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THE FORECAST WAS MOSTLY
GFS MOS SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY NAM WAS
DISMISSED IN THE FCST PROCESS WHEN CONSIDERED AGAINST THE MULTI
MODEL AND WPC WETTER AND COOLER SUNDAY SCENARIO. A 50 50 BLEND
00Z/19 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT- MONDAY, THEREAFTER
THE 00Z/19 GFS MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY. THERE WAS NOT
TIME TO UPDATE WED NIGHT- FRIDAY WITH WPC OR SUPERBLEND. WE`LL
ATTEMPT TO COMPLETE THAT PROCESS AROUND 630 AM.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...APPROACHING STRONG SHORT WAVE WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH FOCUSING SOME INFLOW SHOULD ALLOW PCPN TO REDEVELOP NORTHWARD
DURING THE DAY. WHILE SFC TEMPS AT TIMES MAY CAUSE LIGHTER PCPN TO
OCCUR AS RAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL HAVE TO BE A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER PCPN...AT LEAST JUST TO THE E OF I-95 AND IT WILL BE WET
SNOW. THEN THE QUESTION...WITH ABV FREEZING TEMPS... HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE. WE DONT KNOW FOR SURE BUT OUR GRIDS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
ADJACENT OFFICE COLLABORATION... WPC GUIDANCE...BLENDED SNOW RATIOS
AND WPC DAY 2 QPF. NO ADVY AT THIS TIME, THOUGH ITS STILL CONCEIVABLE
WE`LL EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADVISE FOR NNJ LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE UKMET/GGEM AND ECMWF ALL CONTINUE SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER
THAN THE GFS (BOTH 06Z GFS/NAM ARE DRY SUNDAY WHICH IS DISTURBING
IN LIGHT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALOFT). ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS
OFF THE MID ATLC COAST MAY ALLOW MORE DEEPENING OF THE NEWD MOVG
SFC LOW.

POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT TOWARD THE POCONOS WHERE WE`RE LESS SURE
OF THE FCST SNOW AMOUNTS AND MY CONFIDENCE ON SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS HIGHEST IN NNJ. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE BECAUSE OF
LARGE MODEL SPREAD.


SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE I-95 EWD AND SHOULD ACCUMULATE
IN NNJ IF ITS SNOWING AT ALL. UKMET/GGEM/ECMWF WERE THE REASONING
FOR INCREASED POPS THERE. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW AROUND 12Z MONDAY WILL SOON BE DONE.
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW. CHILLY.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...FAIR AND BEGINNING TO WARM UP A TAD....NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...GENERAL SW FLOW....BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED THIS
PART OF THE FCST SINCE IT WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY. WE SEE A
COMPLICATING WARM FRONT NEARBY.

NEXT TWO PGHS FROM THE DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY .

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW, WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT
DOES NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR NORTHWARD AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM BY THIS TIME, WHICH WILL
KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION RAIN. THERE COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
LTST LIMITED GUID SUGGESTS A LATER ONSET TIME OF PRECIP WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT KEEPING VFR LONGER INTO THE AFTN. HOWEVER, WILL WAIT
TO SEE THE ARRIVAL OF MORE OF THE MRNG GUID BEFORE MAKING CHANGES
TO THE TAFS. A DOWNWARD TREND IS ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY S, BUT IT
CUD END UP BEING A FEW HOURS LATER.

RAIN/SNOW WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST DURG THE AFTERNOON.
A QUICK CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR,
POSSIBLY IFR OR LOWER, AS RAIN/SNOW FALLS AT THE TERMINALS. KPHL
AND TERMINALS SOUTH AND EAST WILL SEE PRECIPITATION FIRST WITH A
GRADUAL SPREAD TO THE NORTH. KRDG, KABE AND KTTN LOOK TO REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ANY
REMAINING RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW, MAINLY KPHL AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SNOW. PRECIPITATION MAY LET UP FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE FILLING BACK IN. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS, MAINLY
TOWARDS THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY-EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR, LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR FOR A
TIME IN MOSTLY SNOW VCNTY KACY. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY 15-25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING W-NW WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 ROSE ABOVE 5 FT AN HOUR AGO, THEN CAME BACK DOWN BUT IS
HOVERING AROUND 5 FT ATTM. THEREFORE, HAVE OPTED TO RAISE SCA FLAG
FOR THE SRN CSTL WATERS ATTM.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT AND WE WILL
SEE WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL START
TO BUILD AND WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FEET. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THIS IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AND WE
HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING AT 22Z. THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL START ON THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY AT 03Z.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND GALE FORCE GUSTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE STARTING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND WE HAVE KEPT THE GALE WATCH IN
THOSE AREAS AND HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE FOR THE SNJ
AND DE ATLC WATERS. SINCE THERE WAS STILL UNCERTAINTY AT 330 AM,
HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO SUNDAY.
ODDS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE NEED TO CONVERT THIS WATCH TO AN SCA IN A
FUTURE FORECAST.

ELSEWHERE...AN SCA SHOULD EASILY VERIFY IN LOWER DE BAY AND THE NNJ
WATERS. THE SCA CONDITIONS LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT AND SO AN SCA
SHOULD BE NEEDED.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...DIMINISHING WIND AND HEADLINES NOT
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 947 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE UPSTATE WILL CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LATEST CAE RADAR INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. LATEST SPC HRRR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SINCE MUCH OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHOULD
BE NORTH OF CAE. THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND
FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AS A BROAD RIDGE PUSHES EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
STATES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE COOLER
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SHOWING A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PROMOTING
DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS STILL SHOW
DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BEING FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE. DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO BRING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO
POPS GIVEN MODEL DISCREPANCIES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SURFACE WEDGE HAS RETREATED NORTH OF ALL TAF SITES...AND SKIES ARE
BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE UPSTATE HAS CAUSED A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. CURRENT TRACK OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BRING
THEM CLOSE TO CAE/CUB THROUGH 01Z...THEN MOVE EAST OF ALL SITES.
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST...CLEARING WILL CONTINUE AS
DRIER AIR MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS
TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT. THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...SURFACE WINDS BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 12 KNOTS...WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 808 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAKING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS THROUGH THE EVENING.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE UPSTATE WILL CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LATEST CAE RADAR INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. LATEST SPC HRRR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SINCE MUCH OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHOULD
BE NORTH OF CAE. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW...SO GRAUPEL
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND
FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AS A BROAD RIDGE PUSHES EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
STATES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE COOLER
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SHOWING A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PROMOTING
DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS STILL SHOW
DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BEING FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE. DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO BRING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO
POPS GIVEN MODEL DISCREPANCIES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SURFACE WEDGE HAS RETREATED NORTH OF ALL TAF SITES...AND SKIES ARE
BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE UPSTATE HAS CAUSED A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. CURRENT TRACK OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BRING
THEM CLOSE TO CAE/CUB THROUGH 01Z...THEN MOVE EAST OF ALL SITES.
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST...CLEARING WILL CONTINUE AS
DRIER AIR MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS
TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT. THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...SURFACE WINDS BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 12 KNOTS...WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 633 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COOL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S. WARM AND WET CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

SPRAWLED OUT MID/UPPER LOW WILL PINWHEEL THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS TO OUR
LOCAL AREA. BEST CVA AND LOW LEVEL FGEN WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A STRAY SPRINKLE OR FLURRY COULD REACH
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT THIS APPEARS LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
ONTARIO SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO FEED A STEADY SUPPLY OF
COOL/DRY/STABLE AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES GIVEN ABSENCE OF
ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW/THETA-E RIDGE
FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STUBBORN DRY
LAYER BOTH NEAR THE SURFACE AND AROUND 700-800MB. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR TODAY BUT LATEST HI-RES
MODELS...SUPPORTED BY LATEST RADAR MOSAIC/SURFACE OBS...SUGGEST EVEN
THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS. DO EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
THOUGH AND WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND -6C...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
STICK AROUND TONIGHT BUT COLD AIRMASS WILL STILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S PER LATEST RAW AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.
DO GET A BRIEF SHOT OF SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING 850MB TEMPS CLOSE TO -10C. A FEW LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUR N/NE BUT CORE OF COLDEST AIR REMAINS
TO OUR NORTHEAST AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR THAT WILL MAKE SIGNIFICANT CUTS INTO LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT. SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THOUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S AND LOWS AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK.

STARK PATTERN CHANGE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DAMPEN
EASTWARD...REPLACED BY DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A FAIRLY ABRUPT WARMUP FOR OUR LOCAL AREA AS W/SW FLOW DEVELOPS
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH AND PUSHES 850MB TO NEAR +10C BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUT DIFFER IN TIMING AND LOCATION.
GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF OUR CWA UNTIL MAIN PV ANOMALY/SURFACE LOW EJECT NORTHEAST
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AND WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS TUES WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES LATER IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

SURFACE OBS SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. HRRR HAS SHOWN THESE CIGS FOR SEVERAL RUNS
OVERNIGHT AND STILL ADVECTS THE CLOUDS SOUTHWEST INTO KSBN
THIS MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO MVFR GROUP GIVEN LOW LEVEL
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND TRAJECTORIES INTO KSBN. HRRR MIXES
LOW CLOUDS BY MID MORNING BUT VFR CIGS PERSIST REST OF PERIOD.
WINDS GENERALLY 8 TO 12 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND AROUND
5 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1257 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

UPDATED EARLIER TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN TODAY AS DEFORMATION
BAND OF RAIN HAS STAYED TO OUR NORTH...WITH NO FORCING TO LEND
ITSELF TO ANY RAIN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION TOMORROW...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
LOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE RADAR AND
POP EXPECTATIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING THE WINDS WELL STIRRED
ON NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 15 MPH. SOME SPRINKLES AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE FALLING
FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT MOST PLACES ARE STAYING DRY. THE
PCPN IS SLOWLY HELPING TO SATURATE THE DRY LOW LEVELS. EVEN SO...
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL QUITE LOW ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH 25 TO 30
DEGREE VALUES WEST AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE THEN ROLLS THROUGH THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY AS A OPEN...BUT STILL RATHER
SHARP...TROUGH. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND TROUGH
WILL TARGET KENTUCKY STARTING THIS MORNING AS ITS FIRST BATCH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE ARRIVAL OF
THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER ROBUST BATCH OF
ENERGY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A MODEL BLEND FOR WX
SPECIFICS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A STRONG
LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING OR
HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY NORTH...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES PAST THE CWA TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS
HAPPENS...LIGHT RAIN WILL START MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE FOR THE
NORTHERN PARTS EAST KENTUCKY WITH MORE SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN
POSSIBLE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE MAINLY A MORNING EVENT...THOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST
OF ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE FAR NORTH COULD MIX WITH A
TOUCH OF SNOW...BUT THIS WOULD MELT IMMEDIATELY WHEN HITTING THE
STILL WARM GROUND. LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY...SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AS THAT
UPPER ENERGY TARGETS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD ALSO HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...A STARK CONTRAST
TO THE WX OF MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK OR TWO.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE ONLY
FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE...MAINLY TO ENHANCE THE TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AT THE START
AND MORE RECENT MODEL TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

OPEN UPPER WAVE WILL BE PULLING EAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW UPSLOPE TYPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT EASTERN KY SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
WILL THEN NOSE IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE
COULD MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SOME MAINLY PATCHY VALLEY FROST EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL
BRING A QUIET PERIOD FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ALSO DURING THE
PERIOD FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING WOULD
INTRODUCE SOME GUSTIER WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY.
OVERALL DRIEST DAYS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS COULD CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN.
WHILE SOME RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES FLATTENED.

WE THEN BEGIN TO FOCUS ON DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE
WEST CONUS...AS WE MOVE TOWARD MID AND LATE WEEK. MODELS WERE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT HAVE SINCE DIVERGED A BIT. ONE OF THE ISSUES IS
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE
00Z GFS CLOSES THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
DEEPENS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN KY. IT TAKES THIS SURFACE LOW
NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WHILE SWEEPING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN KY. WHILE THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN RELATION
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...OVERALL 12Z ECMWF
MATCHED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 00Z GFS SURFACE FEATURES. THE LATEST
00Z ECMWF IS QUITE DIFFERENT WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER WAVE
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE THIS WOULD SWING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN KY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS SAID A BIT LESS CONFIDENCE
EXISTS AT THIS POINT WITH RESPECT TO THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION...AND GIVEN THAT WILL STICK WITH MODEL BLEND THAT DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE LATEST SOLUTION. THEREFORE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ON FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS WARM AND MOIST
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPERATURE WISE WE DO BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURE QUICKLY WARM ABOVE AVERAGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE AND WAA TAKES OVER...WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWER
70S BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

AS WINDS SLOWLY TRANSITION FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WE
SHOULD SEE CIGS BORDERING ON IFR LATE TONIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE TO
COME DOWN.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 739 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE RADAR AND
POP EXPECTATIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING THE WINDS WELL STIRRED
ON NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 15 MPH. SOME SPRINKLES AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE FALLING
FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT MOST PLACES ARE STAYING DRY. THE
PCPN IS SLOWLY HELPING TO SATURATE THE DRY LOW LEVELS. EVEN SO...
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL QUITE LOW ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH 25 TO 30
DEGREE VALUES WEST AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE THEN ROLLS THROUGH THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY AS A OPEN...BUT STILL RATHER
SHARP...TROUGH. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND TROUGH
WILL TARGET KENTUCKY STARTING THIS MORNING AS ITS FIRST BATCH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE ARRIVAL OF
THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER ROBUST BATCH OF
ENERGY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A MODEL BLEND FOR WX
SPECIFICS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A STRONG
LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING OR
HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY NORTH...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES PAST THE CWA TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS
HAPPENS...LIGHT RAIN WILL START MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE FOR THE
NORTHERN PARTS EAST KENTUCKY WITH MORE SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN
POSSIBLE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE MAINLY A MORNING EVENT...THOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST
OF ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE FAR NORTH COULD MIX WITH A
TOUCH OF SNOW...BUT THIS WOULD MELT IMMEDIATELY WHEN HITTING THE
STILL WARM GROUND. LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY...SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AS THAT
UPPER ENERGY TARGETS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD ALSO HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...A STARK CONTRAST
TO THE WX OF MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK OR TWO.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE ONLY
FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE...MAINLY TO ENHANCE THE TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AT THE START
AND MORE RECENT MODEL TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

OPEN UPPER WAVE WILL BE PULLING EAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW UPSLOPE TYPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT EASTERN KY SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
WILL THEN NOSE IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE
COULD MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SOME MAINLY PATCHY VALLEY FROST EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL
BRING A QUIET PERIOD FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ALSO DURING THE
PERIOD FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING WOULD
INTRODUCE SOME GUSTIER WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY.
OVERALL DRIEST DAYS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS COULD CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN.
WHILE SOME RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES FLATTENED.

WE THEN BEGIN TO FOCUS ON DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE
WEST CONUS...AS WE MOVE TOWARD MID AND LATE WEEK. MODELS WERE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT HAVE SINCE DIVERGED A BIT. ONE OF THE ISSUES IS
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE
00Z GFS CLOSES THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
DEEPENS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN KY. IT TAKES THIS SURFACE LOW
NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WHILE SWEEPING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN KY. WHILE THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN RELATION
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...OVERALL 12Z ECMWF
MATCHED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 00Z GFS SURFACE FEATURES. THE LATEST
00Z ECMWF IS QUITE DIFFERENT WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER WAVE
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE THIS WOULD SWING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN KY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS SAID A BIT LESS CONFIDENCE
EXISTS AT THIS POINT WITH RESPECT TO THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION...AND GIVEN THAT WILL STICK WITH MODEL BLEND THAT DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE LATEST SOLUTION. THEREFORE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ON FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS WARM AND MOIST
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPERATURE WISE WE DO BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURE QUICKLY WARM ABOVE AVERAGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE AND WAA TAKES OVER...WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWER
70S BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF KENTUCKY.
FOR THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A
MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE LOWEST VALUES SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE LOWER CIGS...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN AT TIMES TODAY...AGAIN MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST. A DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING PRECIP TO BE LESS OF CONCERN AT
KLOZ AND KSME WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...VCSH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE LOWER CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD...AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 403 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING THE WINDS WELL STIRRED
ON NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 15 MPH. SOME SPRINKLES AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE FALLING
FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT MOST PLACES ARE STAYING DRY. THE
PCPN IS SLOWLY HELPING TO SATURATE THE DRY LOW LEVELS. EVEN SO...
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL QUITE LOW ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH 25 TO 30
DEGREE VALUES WEST AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE THEN ROLLS THROUGH THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY AS A OPEN...BUT STILL RATHER
SHARP...TROUGH. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND TROUGH
WILL TARGET KENTUCKY STARTING THIS MORNING AS ITS FIRST BATCH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE ARRIVAL OF
THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER ROBUST BATCH OF
ENERGY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A MODEL BLEND FOR WX
SPECIFICS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A STRONG
LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH
MORNING...PARTICULARLY NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES
PAST THE CWA TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS LIGHT RAIN WILL START
MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS EAST KENTUCKY WITH
MORE SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE MAINLY
A MORNING EVENT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST OF ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN
THE FAR NORTH COULD MIX WITH A TOUCH OF SNOW...BUT THIS WOULD MELT
IMMEDIATELY WHEN HITTING THE STILL WARM GROUND. LIGHT RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY...SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AS THAT UPPER ENERGY TARGETS THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD ALSO
HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE...A STARK CONTRAST TO THE WX OF MUCH OF THE PAST
WEEK OR TWO.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE ONLY
FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE...MAINLY TO ENHANCE THE TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AT THE START
AND MORE RECENT MODEL TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

OPEN UPPER WAVE WILL BE PULLING EAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW UPSLOPE TYPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT EASTERN KY SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
WILL THEN NOSE IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE
COULD MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SOME MAINLY PATCHY VALLEY FROST EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL
BRING A QUIET PERIOD FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ALSO DURING THE
PERIOD FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING WOULD
INTRODUCE SOME GUSTIER WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY.
OVERALL DRIEST DAYS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS COULD CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN.
WHILE SOME RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES FLATTENED.

WE THEN BEGIN TO FOCUS ON DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE
WEST CONUS...AS WE MOVE TOWARD MID AND LATE WEEK. MODELS WERE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT HAVE SINCE DIVERGED A BIT. ONE OF THE ISSUES IS
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE
00Z GFS CLOSES THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
DEEPENS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN KY. IT TAKES THIS SURFACE LOW
NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WHILE SWEEPING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN KY. WHILE THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN RELATION
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...OVERALL 12Z ECMWF
MATCHED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 00Z GFS SURFACE FEATURES. THE LATEST
00Z ECMWF IS QUITE DIFFERENT WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER WAVE
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE THIS WOULD SWING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN KY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS SAID A BIT LESS CONFIDENCE
EXISTS AT THIS POINT WITH RESPECT TO THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION...AND GIVEN THAT WILL STICK WITH MODEL BLEND THAT DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE LATEST SOLUTION. THEREFORE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ON FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS WARM AND MOIST
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPERATURE WISE WE DO BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURE QUICKLY WARM ABOVE AVERAGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE AND WAA TAKES OVER...WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWER
70S BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION. BY SATURDAY MORNING WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS. ALONG WITH THE LOWER CIGS...LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE SEEN AND COULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT FOG/BR AT TIMES. A
DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALLOWING PRECIP TO CUT OFF AT KLOZ AND KSME AND
POTENTIALLY THE CIGS WOULD TEMPORARILY IMPROVE. ELSEWHERE...VCSH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING THE WINDS WELL STIRRED
ON NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 15 MPH. SOME SPRINKLES AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE FALLING
FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT MOST PLACES ARE STAYING DRY. THE
PCPN IS SLOWLY HELPING TO SATURATE THE DRY LOW LEVELS. EVEN SO...
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL QUITE LOW ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH 25 TO 30
DEGREE VALUES WEST AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE THEN ROLLS THROUGH THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY AS A OPEN...BUT STILL RATHER
SHARP...TROUGH. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND TROUGH
WILL TARGET KENTUCKY STARTING THIS MORNING AS ITS FIRST BATCH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE ARRIVAL OF
THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER ROBUST BATCH OF
ENERGY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A MODEL BLEND FOR WX
SPECIFICS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A STRONG
LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH
MORNING...PARTICULARLY NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES
PAST THE CWA TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS LIGHT RAIN WILL START
MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS EAST KENTUCKY WITH
MORE SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE MAINLY
A MORNING EVENT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST OF ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN
THE FAR NORTH COULD MIX WITH A TOUCH OF SNOW...BUT THIS WOULD MELT
IMMEDIATELY WHEN HITTING THE STILL WARM GROUND. LIGHT RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY...SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AS THAT UPPER ENERGY TARGETS THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD ALSO
HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE...A STARK CONTRAST TO THE WX OF MUCH OF THE PAST
WEEK OR TWO.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE ONLY
FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE...MAINLY TO ENHANCE THE TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AT THE START
AND MORE RECENT MODEL TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION. BY SATURDAY MORNING WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS. ALONG WITH THE LOWER CIGS...LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE SEEN AND COULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT FOG/BR AT TIMES. A
DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALLOWING PRECIP TO CUT OFF AT KLOZ AND KSME AND
POTENTIALLY THE CIGS WOULD TEMPORARILY IMPROVE. ELSEWHERE...VCSH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 200 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

SOME LIGHT RAIN IS ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND FROM THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR SOME SPRINKLES IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE LOW
LEVELS SLOWLY SATURATE. STILL LOOKING AT A WETBULBING SITUATION AS
THIS HAPPENS IN THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA...BUT MOST LIKELY
ANY SNOW AROUND SUNRISE WILL BE MIXED WITH RAIN...WET...AND
FLEETING. HAVE ALSO TOUCHED UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016

CLOUDS AND VIRGA HAVE BEGUN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME
VALLEY TEMPS DROPPING OFF INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS.
BUT AS THE THICKER CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD MODERATE. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ALL OF THE ECHOES
CURRENTLY ON RADAR IS STILL VIRGA WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
RANGING FROM 10 DEGREES IN DEEP VALLEYS UP TO 30 DEGREES ON
RIDGES. THAT BEING SAID...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
WEST AROUND 04Z WHICH IS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ALSO REFRESHED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016

SOME SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE. THE HRRR DOESN/T HAVE A GREAT HOLD ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE NAM12 WHEN REFRESHING THE POPS. ALSO
DID A QUICK REFRESH ON HOURLY TEMPS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016

HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER DRY...AND PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE ONGOING CLEAR SKIES...VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE HOLDING STEADY
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. BEST FORCING WILL LIKELY SLIDE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH
THE SYSTEM TO YIELD WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
HIGHER MET/MAV POP NUMBERS...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL.
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT HEAVY AS IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO
SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO START MEASURING GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WITH COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY EARLY TOMORROW. THIS...COMBINED WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S
TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR
NOTHING AT ALL BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS
TEMPERATURES START TO FALL SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...BUT NO FROST AS CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY
SUNDAY MORNING...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE EXITING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THAT SAID...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALL FOR SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS WARMING UP THROUGH THE DAY
EARLY...EXPECT THERE TO BE LESS OF A SNOW POSSIBILITY. IN FACT
ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AFTER THE
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP
OVER THE REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND NEARLY INTO
MIDWEEK. WITH THE CLEARING AND DRY PERIOD...MONDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP IN THE
VALLEYS.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH NUDGES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
TO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND EVEN
NEAR 70 BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WARM AND MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR SETS UP OVER THE OH VALLEY. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE
THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST A BIT EARLIER. AS FOR CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. DUE TO THIS...REMAINED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND
MODEL. AFTER THE COOL DOWN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A STRONG WARMING
PERIOD WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION. BY SATURDAY MORNING WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS. ALONG WITH THE LOWER CIGS...LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE SEEN AND COULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT FOG/BR AT TIMES. A
DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALLOWING PRECIP TO CUT OFF AT KLOZ AND KSME AND
POTENTIALLY THE CIGS WOULD TEMPORARILY IMPROVE. ELSEWHERE...VCSH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 1237 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM ONTARIO. THE HIGH
WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE: SC HAS REMAINED SHALLOW WITH RELATIVELY DRY SFC-5
KFT AGL SOUNDINGS...SO WE BACKED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT FROM THE LAST
UPDATE...LMTG CHC SN SHWR POPS TO MAINLY NRN MTNS. CLD CVR WAS
ALSO REDUCED FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTN
COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE. OTHERWISE...BASED ON NOON OBS...WE
RAISED HI TEMPS A DEG OR TWO MSLY OVR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE
FA AND UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS INT ERLY EVE.

LASTLY...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THIS AFTN TO...ATTM...
UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON INTERPOLATING FROM OBSVD LOWS TO
OBSVD 8 AM TEMPS TO AFTN HI TEMPS POSTED ARND 4 PM.

ORGNL DISC: SOME CLOUDS DROPPING IN FROM CANADA ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS MOVING SE. FURTHER BACK TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE,
ANOTHER PLUME SETTING UP TO DROP SE. SATELLITE WV LOOP SHOWED
UPPER TROF SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES EARLIER ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW 0F ACROSS THE NW REGION SUCH AS CLAYTON
LAKE HITTING -4F AS OF 10Z(6 AM). ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO LINE
UP THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING CLOUDS TO FILL ACROSS
THE NORTH TODAY W/SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. NW PICKING UP AS
KFVE WAS GUSTING TO 20 MPH. NW WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MUCH COLDER TODAY AND BREEZY.

COLD AIR ADVECTING IN FROM CANADA WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPS
TODAY AND WELL BELOW NORMAL. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 20 MPH
W/SOME HIGH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
AS WELL STATED BY THE DAYCREW, SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION, INCLUDING BANGOR TO THE COAST W/THE NW DOWNSLOPE
WIND. ACROSS THE N AND W, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 800MBS
WILL SET UP SOME CLOUDS AND COLD FLOW COMING OFF OPEN ST. LAWRENCE
WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR STREAMERS. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME SB CAPE AROUND 40 JOULES BUT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. THE HRRR 3KM AND HIGH RES NAM SHOWED SOME
SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR N AND W. DECIDED TO GO W/20% POPS AND USE
SNOW SHOWER WORDING FOR THE WX ELEMENT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HIT UPPER
LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WINDS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
CANADA. CLEARING SKIES AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED W/THE
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT. INVERSION SETTING UP
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES HITTING THE
SINGLE NUMBERS W/AREAS ACROSS THE N AND W HITTING BELOW 0F
ESPECIALLY THE LOW LYING AREAS. LOWER TEENS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH
EVEN THE LATEST EC FURTHER EAST. THIS, ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT
MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES TAKE THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA, NECESSITATED ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/QPF/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MAINE AND
THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH DRY, ALBEIT UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART INTO TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FROM KCAR TO KFVE AS SOME MVFR CIGS COULD SET UP
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
MAINLY KBGR/KBHB. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR OUTER WATERS THROUGH 8 PM. GUSTS TO 25 KT OCCURRING ATTM PER
THE BUOYS AND WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS WERE RUNNING 4-6 FT. CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW SCA BY THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM CANADA AND WIND DROP OFF.
DAYCREW HAD THIS HANDLED WELL.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED
TO 1 TO 3 NM IN SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 951 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM ONTARIO. THE HIGH
WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE: SOME SC IS BEGINNING TO RE-DEVELOP AS OF MID
MORNING. WITH AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE FA THIS AFTN
WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN
ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWRS AND FLURRIES ACROSS SPCLY THE NRN HLF OF THE
FA. WITH LMTD LLVL MOISTURE...MORE SIG SN SHWR BAND ACTIVITY WILL
BE FEW AND FAR APART...BUT LATEST HRRR SIM RADAR REF OUTPUT DOES
SUGGEST ST LAWRENCE STREAMER BAND ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. GIVEN SFC
WINDS FROM ARND 300-310 DEG...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY SN
BAND ACTIVITY IS OVR THE FAR N XTNDG FROM THE THE ST JOHN VLY
ESE TO ARND KCAR. ANOTHER POSSIBLE AREA IS FROM THE KATAHDIN
HIGHLANDS ESE TO THE MILLINOCKET AND THEN NRN WASHINGTON COUNTY
AREAS. MOST LCTNS WILL EXPERIENCE LITTLE OR NO SN ACCUMULATION
THIS AFTN BUT A FEW LCTNS THAT REMAIN UNDER LONGER LIVED SN BANDS
COULD SEE LCLY UP TO AN INCH. OTHERWISE...SN SHWR ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY WIND DOWN TOWARD EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DYTM HTG.

LASTLY...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THIS AFTN TO...ATTM...
UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON INTERPOLATING FROM OBSVD LOWS TO
OBSVD 8 AM TEMPS TO AFTN HI TEMPS POSTED ARND 4 PM.

ORGNL DISC: SOME CLOUDS DROPPING IN FROM CANADA ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS MOVING SE. FURTHER BACK TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE,
ANOTHER PLUME SETTING UP TO DROP SE. SATELLITE WV LOOP SHOWED
UPPER TROF SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES EARLIER ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW 0F ACROSS THE NW REGION SUCH AS CLAYTON
LAKE HITTING -4F AS OF 10Z(6 AM). ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO LINE
UP THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING CLOUDS TO FILL ACROSS
THE NORTH TODAY W/SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. NW PICKING UP AS
KFVE WAS GUSTING TO 20 MPH. NW WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MUCH COLDER TODAY AND BREEZY.

COLD AIR ADVECTING IN FROM CANADA WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPS
TODAY AND WELL BELOW NORMAL. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 20 MPH
W/SOME HIGH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
AS WELL STATED BY THE DAYCREW, SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION, INCLUDING BANGOR TO THE COAST W/THE NW DOWNSLOPE
WIND. ACROSS THE N AND W, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 800MBS
WILL SET UP SOME CLOUDS AND COLD FLOW COMING OFF OPEN ST. LAWRENCE
WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR STREAMERS. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME SB CAPE AROUND 40 JOULES BUT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. THE HRRR 3KM AND HIGH RES NAM SHOWED SOME
SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR N AND W. DECIDED TO GO W/20% POPS AND USE
SNOW SHOWER WORDING FOR THE WX ELEMENT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HIT UPPER
LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WINDS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
CANADA. CLEARING SKIES AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED W/THE
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT. INVERSION SETTING UP
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES HITTING THE
SINGLE NUMBERS W/AREAS ACROSS THE N AND W HITTING BELOW 0F
ESPECIALLY THE LOW LYING AREAS. LOWER TEENS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH
EVEN THE LATEST EC FURTHER EAST. THIS, ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT
MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES TAKE THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA, NECESSITATED ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/QPF/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MAINE AND
THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH DRY, ALBEIT UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART INTO TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FROM KCAR TO KFVE AS SOME MVFR CIGS COULD SET UP
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
MAINLY KBGR/KBHB. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR OUTER WATERS THROUGH 8 PM. GUSTS TO 25 KT OCCURRING ATTM PER
THE BUOYS AND WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS WERE RUNNING 4-6 FT. CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW SCA BY THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM CANADA AND WIND DROP OFF.
DAYCREW HAD THIS HANDLED WELL.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED
TO 1 TO 3 NM IN SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 636 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER
THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME CLOUDS DROPPING IN FROM CANADA ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS MOVING SE. FURTHER BACK TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE, ANOTHER
PLUME SETTING UP TO DROP SE. SATELLITE WV LOOP SHOWED UPPER TROF
SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES EARLIER ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW 0F ACROSS THE NW REGION SUCH AS CLAYTON
LAKE HITTING -4F AS OF 10Z(6 AM). ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO LINE
UP THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING CLOUDS TO FILL ACROSS
THE NORTH TODAY W/SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. NW PICKING UP AS
KFVE WAS GUSTING TO 20 MPH. NW WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MUCH COLDER TODAY AND BREEZY.

COLD AIR ADVECTING IN FROM CANADA WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPS
TODAY AND WELL BELOW NORMAL. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 20 MPH
W/SOME HIGH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
AS WELL STATED BY THE DAYCREW, SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION, INCLUDING BANGOR TO THE COAST W/THE NW DOWNSLOPE
WIND. ACROSS THE N AND W, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 800MBS
WILL SET UP SOME CLOUDS AND COLD FLOW COMING OFF OPEN ST. LAWRENCE
WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR STREAMERS. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME SB CAPE AROUND 40 JOULES BUT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. THE HRRR 3KM AND HIGH RES NAM SHOWED SOME
SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR N AND W. DECIDED TO GO W/20% POPS AND USE
SNOW SHOWER WORDING FOR THE WX ELEMENT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HIT UPPER
LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WINDS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
CANADA. CLEARING SKIES AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED W/THE
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT. INVERSION SETTING UP
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES HITTING THE
SINGLE NUMBERS W/AREAS ACROSS THE N AND W HITTING BELOW 0F
ESPECIALLY THE LOW LYING AREAS. LOWER TEENS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH
EVEN THE LATEST EC FURTHER EAST. THIS, ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT
MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES TAKE THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA, NECESSITATED ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/QPF/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MAINE AND
THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH DRY, ALBEIT UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART INTO TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FROM KCAR TO KFVE AS SOME MVFR CIGS COULD SET UP
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
MAINLY KBGR/KBHB. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR OUTER WATERS THROUGH 8 PM. GUSTS TO 25 KT OCCURRING ATTM PER
THE BUOYS AND WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS WERE RUNNING 4-6 FT. CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW SCA BY THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM CANADA AND WIND DROP OFF.
DAYCREW HAD THIS HANDLED WELL.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED
TO 1 TO 3 NM IN SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 439 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER
THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH COLDER TODAY AND BREEZY.

COLD AIR ADVECTING IN FROM CANADA WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPS
TODAY AND WELL BELOW NORMAL. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 20 MPH
W/SOME HIGH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
AS WELL STATED BY THE DAYCREW, SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION, INCLUDING BANGOR TO THE COAST W/THE NW DOWNSLOPE
WIND. ACROSS THE N AND W, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 800MBS
WILL SET UP SOME CLOUDS AND COLD FLOW COMING OFF OPEN ST. LAWRENCE
WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR STREAMERS. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME SB CAPE AROUND 40 JOULES BUT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. THE HRRR 3KM AND HIGH RES NAM SHOWED SOME
SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR N AND W. DECIDED TO GO W/20% POPS AND USE
SNOW SHOWER WORDING FOR THE WX ELEMENT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HIT UPPER
LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WINDS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
CANADA. CLEARING SKIES AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED W/THE
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT. INVERSION SETTING UP
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES HITTING THE
SINGLE NUMBERS W/AREAS ACROSS THE N AND W HITTING BELOW 0F
ESPECIALLY THE LOW LYING AREAS. LOWER TEENS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH
EVEN THE LATEST EC FURTHER EAST. THIS, ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT
MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES TAKE THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA, NECESSITATED ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/QPF/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MAINE AND
THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH DRY, ALBEIT UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART INTO TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FROM KCAR TO KFVE AS SOME MVFR CIGS COULD SET UP
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
MAINLY KBGR/KBHB. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR OUTER WATERS THROUGH 8 PM. GUSTS TO 25 KT OCCURRING ATTM PER
THE BUOYS AND WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS WERE RUNNING 4-6 FT. CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW SCA BY THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM CANADA AND WIND DROP OFF.
DAYCREW HAD THIS HANDLED WELL.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED
TO 1 TO 3 NM IN SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 920 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO INVADE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS EVIDENT BY SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT SET UP NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH. LATEST RAP RUNS SHOW THIS WELL...SO HAVE FOLLOWED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO DIMINISH POPS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS
EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AND IS POOLING REMNANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING THE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW TO SHUT
OFF BY DAY BREAK MONDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION...BRINGING ALL LOCATIONS BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CUMULUS SHOULD FILL BACK IN
LATE MONDAY MORNING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT TOMORROW...RESULTING IN
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE RETURN OF
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN TODAY...BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT-TUE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. BY TUE MORNING...WIND WILL VEER TO SLY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NRN PLAINS. AS
A RESULT...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE CAN
BE EXPECTED...THUS HERALDING A CONSIDERABLE WARMUP FOR MID-WEEK.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE
NIGHT AND WED...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED
ALONG THE LAKE SHORELINE...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT
AND WED. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHLIGHTED POPS IN THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SIMILAR STRUCTURE MAINTAINED USING LATEST
GUIDANCE.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...TEMPERATURES IN THE
WARM SECTOR WILL EXCEED SEASONAL NORMALS BY SEVERAL DEG F...WITH
MAXIMA IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S AND MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SAG SLIGHTLY SWD ON WED IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG SYSTEM IN THE SRN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MAY INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY ON THU...
WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION LATE THU AFTERNOON-
THU NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING DICTATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INTENSITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS...BUT IT SEEMS
RELATIVELY CLEAR THAT IT WILL RAIN THU AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SFC TROUGH...CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSOLATION. THUS...
INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED DESPITE THE HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THUNDER CHANCES NEVERTHELESS WERE RETAINED GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE
FORCING AND MOISTURE...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY.

MUCH-COLDER AIR WILL INVADE BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.
PRECIPITATION WILL END RAPIDLY ON FRI IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW.

THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DECREASING TREND IN SNOW COVERAGE WILL BE SEEN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A DUJ/PIT/HLG LINE THROUGH
03Z OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONCENTRATE MORE
ALONG THE RIDGES IN UPSLOPE FLOW LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE MOISTURE
BECOMES TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW BY SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL RISE
TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY THEN...WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN MANY
AREAS. VFR CUMULUS SHOULD POP UP AGAIN BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NW OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS DEVELOPING BY NOON ON MONDAY.
CL


.OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TSRA IS POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED THU-FRI.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 744 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE TO POPS TO FOLLOW LATEST RADAR TRENDS. DRY AIR IS
INVADING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EVIDENT BY
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN MANY LOCATIONS.
LATEST RAP RUNS SHOW THIS VERY WELL...SO HAVE FOLLOWED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO DIMINISH POPS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS KICKING IN AND WILL BEGIN TO POOL REMNANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING THE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW TO SHUT
OFF BY DAY BREAK MONDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION...BRINGING ALL LOCATIONS BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CUMULUS SHOULD FILL BACK IN
LATE MONDAY MORNING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT TOMORROW...RESULTING IN
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE RETURN OF
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN TODAY...BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT-TUE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. BY TUE MORNING...WIND WILL VEER TO SLY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NRN PLAINS. AS
A RESULT...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE CAN
BE EXPECTED...THUS HERALDING A CONSIDERABLE WARMUP FOR MID-WEEK.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE
NIGHT AND WED...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED
ALONG THE LAKE SHORELINE...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT
AND WED. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHLIGHTED POPS IN THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SIMILAR STRUCTURE MAINTAINED USING LATEST
GUIDANCE.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...TEMPERATURES IN THE
WARM SECTOR WILL EXCEED SEASONAL NORMALS BY SEVERAL DEG F...WITH
MAXIMA IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S AND MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SAG SLIGHTLY SWD ON WED IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG SYSTEM IN THE SRN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MAY INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY ON THU...
WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION LATE THU AFTERNOON-
THU NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING DICTATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INTENSITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS...BUT IT SEEMS
RELATIVELY CLEAR THAT IT WILL RAIN THU AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SFC TROUGH...CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSOLATION. THUS...
INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED DESPITE THE HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THUNDER CHANCES NEVERTHELESS WERE RETAINED GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE
FORCING AND MOISTURE...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY.

MUCH-COLDER AIR WILL INVADE BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.
PRECIPITATION WILL END RAPIDLY ON FRI IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW.

THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DECREASING TREND IN SNOW COVERAGE WILL BE SEEN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A DUJ/PIT/HLG LINE THROUGH
03Z OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONCENTRATE MORE
ALONG THE RIDGES IN UPSLOPE FLOW LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE MOISTURE
BECOMES TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW BY SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL RISE
TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY THEN...WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN MANY
AREAS. VFR CUMULUS SHOULD POP UP AGAIN BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NW OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS DEVELOPING BY NOON ON MONDAY.
CL


.OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TSRA IS POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED THU-FRI.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 652 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE TO POPS TO FOLLOW LATEST RADAR TRENDS. DRY AIR IS
INVADING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EVIDENT BY
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN MANY LOCATIONS.
LATEST RAP RUNS SHOW THIS VERY WELL...SO HAVE FOLLOWED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO DIMINISH POPS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS KICKING IN AND WILL BEGIN TO POOL REMNANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING THE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW TO SHUT
OFF BY DAY BREAK MONDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION...BRINGING ALL LOCATIONS BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CUMULUS SHOULD FILL BACK IN
LATE MONDAY MORNING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT TOMORROW...RESULTING IN
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE RETURN OF
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN TODAY...BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT-TUE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. BY TUE MORNING...WIND WILL VEER TO SLY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NRN PLAINS. AS
A RESULT...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE CAN
BE EXPECTED...THUS HERALDING A CONSIDERABLE WARMUP FOR MID-WEEK.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE
NIGHT AND WED...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED
ALONG THE LAKE SHORELINE...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT
AND WED. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHLIGHTED POPS IN THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SIMILAR STRUCTURE MAINTAINED USING LATEST
GUIDANCE.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...TEMPERATURES IN THE
WARM SECTOR WILL EXCEED SEASONAL NORMALS BY SEVERAL DEG F...WITH
MAXIMA IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S AND MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SAG SLIGHTLY SWD ON WED IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG SYSTEM IN THE SRN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MAY INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY ON THU...
WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION LATE THU AFTERNOON-
THU NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING DICTATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INTENSITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS...BUT IT SEEMS
RELATIVELY CLEAR THAT IT WILL RAIN THU AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SFC TROUGH...CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSOLATION. THUS...
INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED DESPITE THE HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THUNDER CHANCES NEVERTHELESS WERE RETAINED GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE
FORCING AND MOISTURE...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY.

MUCH-COLDER AIR WILL INVADE BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.
PRECIPITATION WILL END RAPIDLY ON FRI IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW.

THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED IFR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THINK THAT CONDITIONS
SHOULD NOT DROP LOWER THAN MVFR. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE AT MGW...WHICH IS THE TERMINAL WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN SNOW
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN COULD ALSO MIX IN AT SOME TERMINALS.
CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LOW VFR CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TSRA IS POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED THU-FRI.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 601 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TO START THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE
FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VLY/CENTRL FOOTHILLS
ATTM...AS HRRR SUGGESTED IT WOULD. THE AXIS OF PCPN E OF THE
BLURDG ATTM SHUD BE OVER THE ERN SHORE IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HRS...ANRD 00Z. UP TO THIS POINT...ANY SNOW HAS BEEN MINIMAL AND
ELEV DEPENDENT. AS SUN ANGLE LOWERS...PCPN HAVING A BETTER CHC
SURVIVING AS SNOW...BUT ITS FIGHTING A WARM BLYR. DO NOT BELIEVE
AT THIS POINT ANY ADDTL ADVY THRESHOLD ACCUMS WL OCCUR...OUTSIDE
OF THE COLD APLCNS.

BY TONIGHT DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...WITH THE LOWER LVLS
REMAINING FAIRLY SATURATED. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...HOWEVER LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE WORKS TO KEEP MOST OF THE
FORCING TO THE NORTH. WITH THE LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT...EXPECTING
THE PCPN INTENSITY TO TAPER OFF DRASTICALLY...BCMG VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW...OR EVEN PERIODS OF DRY WX. AS SUCH...NOT
ANTICIPATING TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF SNOW AMTS...ESP EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOWS ENERGY TRANSITIONS TO OFFSHORE
NC...WITH THE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENING AS IT PASSES TO THE EAST
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP LOW LVLS
MOIST...BUT THIS WILL IMPACT MORE SKY COVER THAN PRODUCING ANY
PCPN INITIALLY SUN AM. PROGRESSING DURING THE DAY...AS THE LOW
DEEPENS...LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW COULD IMPACT GENERALLY AREAS EAST OF
I-95 WHILE INCRSG NW FLOW TO THE WEST WILL PRODUCE CONTINUAL
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS REACHING THE
40S...EVEN IF YOU SEE SNOWFLAKES DURING THE DAY SUN TO THE
EAST...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUM.

THE SUBSIDENCE LAYER FINALLY WEAKENS AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROUGH
DIGS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SEND THRU A DECENT
SHORTWAVE LATE SUN/EARLY SUN NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE COULD TRIGGER
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SUN EVENING AND PSBL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...AGAIN WITH MINIMAL ACCUMS. HOWEVER...LOWS SUN NIGHT
SHOULD DROP BELOW FZ MOST PLACES...RESULTING IN ICY CONDITIONS
FROM THE RECENT PCPN.

THE LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN WHILE THE UPPER LVL TROUGH SWINGS OFF TO THE EAST. OUTSIDE OF
ANY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR
THE REGION DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESS TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER ON TUE OR WED
AND DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO THU NIGHT OR FRI. DRY CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS ON TUE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR
50S... INCREASING INTO THE UPR 60S AND 70S BY THU. LOW TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 40S TUE NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE 50S THU NIGHT.

LOW PRESS WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NE. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRI. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS PSBL WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT
HOW LONG IT WILL LAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN. ECMWF IS DRIER BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESS BUILDING FRI NIGHT... WHILE GFS KEEPS
PRECIP THROUGH SAT WITH A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPS FOR FRI WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE FROPA. BUT LIKELY
ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE IT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S...
SAT HIGH TEMPS STILL MILD...IN THE UPR 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH THE HEAVIER
PCPN. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE RA THRU 21/21Z...WITH SNOW MIXING IN
THEREAFTER. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING A FULL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AT
ANY SITE. WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE NE.

PCPN TAPERS OFF BETWEEN 03-05Z...THOUGH CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO
REBOUND TO VFR...SOMETIME 06-08Z. THE VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
MVFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING...AND LINGERS FOR
MOST OF SUNDAY. PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS PSBL AGAIN LATE
SUN...MAINLY KDCA/KBWI/KMTN.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUN NIGHT AS THE PCPN EXITS THE REGION.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NW AS WELL...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE TERMINALS TUE INTO WED WITH HIGH
PRESS DOMINATING CONDITIONS OVER OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS MINUS THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE
BAY/TIDAL POTOMAC. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SCA LVLS IN
THE PAST HOUR. WILL MONITOR THE TREND AND ADJUST THE SCA IF
NEEDED. EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEEPEN TO THE EAST...SO SCA IN EFFECT TONIGHT THRU SUN
FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. THIS SCA CONTINUES
INTO SUN NIGHT AND WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
MONDAY WITH INCRSG NW FLOW.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PSBL EXPECTED TUE INTO WED WITH WINDS BELOW
THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS OVER
OUR REGION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ503-
     504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ501-
     503-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-
     538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532-533-
     540>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ531.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...HTS/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/IMR
MARINE...SEARS/IMR




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 813 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL  BRING RAIN AND SNOW THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
8AM UPDATE...
INITIAL DRY AIR AND DRY SLOT MOIVING IN WILL KEEP PREIP ON THE
LOWER SIDE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR ACUMULATING
SNOW IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF TUCKER AND GARRETT NEXT FEW HOURS.
ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS OVER AREA TO BE MORE INLINE WITH HRRR FOR REST
OF DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHGS TO SKY COVER BASED ON SATELLITE/NEAR
TERM MODELS FOR THE ERLY MRNG UPDATE. PREVIOUS...A CLOSED UPR LOW
ACRS THE MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SE TODAY. LOW PRES IS
PROGGED ACRS THE SERN CONUS TODAY...WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROF
EXTENDING N INTO WRN PA. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA S
OF PIT THIS MRNG. EXPECTING SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV AND
MD...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE AS BOUNDARY LYR TEMPS
WARM.

SFC TEMPS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES TO PRECLUDE
SNOW ACCUMULATION...WITH 2-4 INCHES PSBL IN THE WV/MD RIDGES WHERE
COLDER TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN...AND HIGHER QPF IS FCST.
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFO/S. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE PCPN
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH VRY DRY AIR IN PLACE...SO MAINTAINED A
DCRG S-N POP GRADIENT.

PREFERED THE NAM/HRRR/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEAR TERM FCST WAS UPDATED USING A
BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PCPN SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE SUPPORT EXITS. THE
UPR LOW IS PROGGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROF SUN AS COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO
CROSS THE UPR OH VLY RGN LATE SUN AND SUN NGT. THIS SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT SNOW...WITH RAIN MIXING IN DURING THE DAY WITH A
SUFFICIENTLY WARM BOUNDARY LYR...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END MON
MRNG AS THE TROF EXITS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

A CROSSING WARM FRONT IN ZONAL FLOW SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS
TUE...AND SHOWER CHCS MAINLY N OF PIT WHERE MORE FAVORABLE
MOISTURE AND UPR SUPPORT IS PROGGED. AFTER BELOW AVG TEMPS TO
START...READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LVLS BY TUE. THE
SHORT TERM GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING ADJUSTED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA LINE WEDNESDAY IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...UNTIL A
DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS LOW PRESSURE AND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP BEST RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
HEIGHTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF APPROACHING CENTRAL PLAINS
SYSTEM...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY. INCREASING
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH FROPA ON FRIDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN WORK INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING.   BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM
PITTSBURGH SOUTH FROM NEAR 12Z TO 20Z...WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH 12-15Z...WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR INTO MID AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT THAT
SHOULD END SIGNIFICANT PRECIP 21Z-00Z. MVFR SHOULD THEN REMAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NORTHERN PORTS OF KFKL AND KDUJ VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY UNDER LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A STRATUS DECK INTO MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO IN
ITS WAKE. THIS AFTERNOON...AREAS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER
THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI AS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OVER
PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE AND SRN DELTA COUNTIES AIDED BY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THIN AND CELLULAR LOOK TO
THESE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SUGGEST THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIDED ON COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE HIGH-RES CANADIAN WHICH HAD LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SPREAD WEAK LIFT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/FAR NORTH
CWA. AS WINDS SHIFT WNW BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW-LVL
MOISTURE INCREASES AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN TO -10C
TO -11C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO WRN
UPPER MI AND THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES/ISOLD SHSN AS 85H TEMPS
LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE
SHARPER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE LAKE INTO
ONTARIO EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FROPA ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

HAVE AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES.

FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA SUN
EVENING INTO EARLY SUN NIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/EFFECT SNOW TO NW WIND SNOWBELTS. 850MB TEMPS ARE -10C
TO -12C AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THEN DROP TO -13C TO -15C LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS TURN WLY BY 00Z TUE. MOISTURE
IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...SO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MODELS
DEPICT 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS SUN
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS
DURING THE DAY MON. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S WHERE SNOW
FALLS AND HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 30 N TO THE UPPER 30S SCENTRAL.

NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AND
WILL MOVE ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS OR JUST S OF THE CWA
AT THE SFC. FGEN FORCING AND WAA ALONG THE SLOPED FRONT WILL ASSIST
IN PROVIDING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW BETWEEN 06Z AND 21Z TUE...MOST
AREAS WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW IN 3-6 HOURS. MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT
PLACEMENT OF SNOW DUE TO PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONT/FGEN/SHORTWAVE...DETAILS OF WHERE THE BEST SNOW FALL IS
UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z/19 GFS IS FARTHER N AND KEEPS THE WI BORDER AREAS
DRIEST (BUT STILL SEEING PRECIP) WHILE THE 00Z/19 ECMWF IS FARTHER S
AND KEEPS THE NRN TIER DRIEST. THE 12Z/19 NAM COMES IN BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF FOR PLACEMENT OF BEST PRECIP. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AND BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS POINT. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE THE GREATEST SNOW
FALLS...WHICH MAY BE DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND E...AND IF THAT FALLS IN 3-6 HOURS IT COULD BRIEFLY
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. SNOW LOOKS TO MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE
DAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE FAR SCENTRAL.

WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE WEEK...IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE WED NIGHT-FRI TIME FRAME (DEPENDING ON
MODEL). MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE THE BEST PRECIP (AROUND AN INCH OF QPF
WITH AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR MAKING SNOW THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE) ALONG OR
SE OF THE SERN BORDER OF THE CWA...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
TRENDING NW. A LOT OF VARIABLES AT PLAY FOR 5-6 DAYS OUT...SO WILL
JUST HAVE TO KEEP CLOSELY MONITORING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

WITH HIGH PRES SETTLING S ACROSS AREA FROM NRN ONTARIO...DRIER AIR
HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND E. UPSLOPE NE WINDS HAVE
RESULTED IN AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NCNTRL AND WRN UPR
MICHIGAN...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS AT KCMX AND KIWD THROUGH 20Z/21Z THEN CLOUDS DECREASING
TOWARD EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH
CROSSES LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN. SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
SHOULD FOLLOW...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLD THROUGH SUN MORNING SO
DID NOT MENTION IN TAF. EXPECT LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS IN
WAKE OF TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR.
OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY MAINLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS UNTIL E-NE WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

 1050 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.UPDATE...

A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN IS BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK
FOR TODAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
EXTEND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE PINE BELT REGION INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE MINOR WAVE AND WEAK
LIFT PASSING THROUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTN WITH
STEADY EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECK FROM NW TO SE...BUT HAVE KEPT THINGS
A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC ALONG/SE OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE BASED ON
LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THE COOLER MORNING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AND EXPECTATION FOR STRATUS TO BE MORE STUBBORN...HAVE REDUCED
HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST TAF SITES WERE REPORTING IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED -SHRA WERE TRACKING EAST ALONG HWY 20 AND HWY 84.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DVLP ALONG WITH VFR CONDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THIS AFTN THROUGH
SUNDAY AS SKIES CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. 17/22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO JUST
SOUTH OF VICKSBURG WITH A 1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS HAD A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN IOWA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING ITS BASE OVER THE OZARKS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL SWING EAST TODAY WHILE THE CLOSED LOW SINKS FARTHER SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP SEND THE
SURFACE HIGH SOUTH AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR AT SUNRISE AND BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BEFORE NOON. LOCAL
RADARS SHOWED A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING EAST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES AT 3AM. THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS POST
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING BUT THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. NORMAL HIGHS RUN FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. THE CAA TODAY WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS
WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MID 60S
EXPECTED SOUTHEAST. THE CLOSED LOW WILL DROP FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY NOON
SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH AND BECOME CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SURGE OF
COLD AIR INTO OUR CWA WITH THE 850MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM DROPPING
SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO DECOUPLE SUNDAY MORNING HINDERING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY
SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WIND
PROTECTED AND DRAINAGE AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. NORMAL MORNING LOWS RUN
IN THE MID 40S. THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IT WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME COLD STRATOCU TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
ALLOW THE WINDS TO DECOUPLE. THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK SUNDAY
NIGHT. MORNING LOWS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI WITH
MID 30S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FROST WILL BE MORE LIKELY
AREAWIDE BUT AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST. WL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO SINCE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. /22/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK...SEASONABLY CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIGHT ATOP THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO START THE WORK
WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE STILL ONLY ABLE TO DELIVER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS HIGH SHOULD START TO TRANSITION TO OUR
EAST MONDAY NIGHT...BUT CALM WINDS POST SUNSET WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID
EVENING COOLING. IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES THE LATE NIGHT
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD LIMIT HOW FAR TEMPS COULD DROP BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BUT IN EASTERN ZONES GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S POSSIBLE. WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE FROST/LIGHT FREEZE
POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT IT IS PRUDENT TO HOLD OFF HIGHLIGHTING ANY
SLIGHT FROST THREAT YET FOR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE VERY COOL START TUESDAY THE DAY SHOULD EVOLVE QUITE
PLEASANTLY WITH BUILDING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...PLENTY
OF SUN...AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTING AMPLE BL MIXING. DIURNAL
RANGES OF 30+ DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY SPOTS...SUPPORTING
HIGHS ABOVE 70 IN SOME CASES.

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAP INTO
SOME GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY (AND MILDER LOW TEMPS AS WELL). AT
LEAST PATCHY SUN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL LET HIGHS GET WELL UP
INTO THE 70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND MILDER STILL.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACT LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...NOW
FOCUSING ON THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. BUT
EVEN THOUGH CONSENSUS HAS SPED UP THE INDIVIDUAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ALSO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM PASSAGE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY LEAVES A LOT TO BE
DESIRED. FOR INSTANCE...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL EURO MODEL HAS ENERGY
AND WIND SHEAR LARGELY FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR REGION WHILE THE OP GFS
HAS OUR REGION IMPACTED BY A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM BUT WHICH LACKS AN
EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR. COLLABORATING WITH SPC CLOSELY...THEY SEE
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO REFRAIN FROM OUTLOOKING A CONSOLIDATED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT QUITE YET...BUT CERTAINLY SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS POINT AND WE WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS IN
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VERY CLOSELY. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  37  57  35 /  10   3   3   1
MERIDIAN      61  35  58  31 /  17   5   3   1
VICKSBURG     54  37  58  34 /   8   1   1   0
HATTIESBURG   64  38  61  33 /  23   8   1   0
NATCHEZ       54  37  56  34 /  10   2   1   0
GREENVILLE    53  36  55  34 /   5   1   5   1
GREENWOOD     53  34  55  32 /   6   2   8   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 1015 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MID
WEEK AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW.
EXPECT THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO TREND MILDER BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST STILL IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE TO
THIS POINT WITH JUST NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON MODERATELY FAST SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LARGER
PRECIPITATION SHIELD STILL IS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. AS IS EVIDENT ON 00Z ALB/GYX RAOBS, AIRMASS
ACROSS OUR AREA IS VERY DRY FROM 700 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO
STILL NEED LOW-LEVELS TO FURTHER SATURATE BEFORE OUR EXTREME
EASTERN VT COUNTIES GET BRUSHED BY WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
SHIELD - MEANING EITHER FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW - AS PER
INCOMING 00Z NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE. FORECAST HAS LIMITED CHANCES
FOR SNOW COVERED PRETTY WELL. LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH BEST
RADIATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE SKY COVER SHOULD CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 356 PM SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE SUN ANGLE BEGINNING
TO DROP EXPECT OUR MAX TEMPS TO BE RIGHT AROUND NOW AND THEN
SLOWLY BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT WE WON`T SEE NEAR THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
AS LAST NIGHT SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE HIGH
TEENS TO LOWER 20S THIS EVENING.

WHAT WILL BECOME THE COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST IS
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EXPECT IT TO
QUICKLY DEEPEN AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC. ULTIMATELY THIS LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND
SO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE OUTSIDE
LOOKING. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS FOR SOUTHERN WINDSOR COUNTY WHERE
THERE IS CHANCE THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SYSTEM. I DONT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND PLENTY
OF GUIDANCE DOESN`T EVEN FORECAST MEASURABLE SNOW.

ONCE THE LOW DOES DEVELOP OUR WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY
DEVELOPING GUSTY PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS SO I ANTICIPATE
TOMORROW COULD BE QUITE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DRIVING IN
MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR TOMORROW EVENING. WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TOMORROW ANTICIPATE ANOTHER DAY
NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 IN
THE CONNECTICUT, SAINT LAWRENCE, AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. EXPECTING MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE
CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN OR SNOW
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION LIKELY WITH
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR
MOVE INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS WITH
VARYING AMTS OF MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS (9000FT AND HIGHER) TONIGHT
THRU MID-AFTN MONDAY. MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
VCNTY SLK/MSS WITH INCREASING NW WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. CARRIED
JUST VCSH AT SLK AFTER 21Z MONDAY FOR NOW. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY SE 5-10KTS AT RUT THRU DAYBREAK. WINDS
BCMG NW MID-LATE MORNING MONDAY...SUSTAINED 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS
16-20KTS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH GUSTY WINDS ON
MONDAY. SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SLK AND MPV.

00Z WED ONWARD...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1006 PM SUNDAY...AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT MASSENA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT/RICHARDS FIELD (KMSS) HAVE BEEN SPORADICALLY
TRANSMITTING OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO TELCO PROBLEMS. PERIODIC
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS TECHNICIANS WORK TO ADDRESS
THESE TELECOMMS ISSUES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS/DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1212 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE...THOUGH WE ARE BEING MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLEARING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THAN RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS SUGGEST GIVEN
RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS. WE DID LOWER FORECAST HIGHS A BIT IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE...AROUND STANLEY AND TIOGA...WHERE IT
APPEARS STRATUS WILL HOLD BACK HEATING THE MOST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

WE HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL
17 UTC GIVEN OBSERVED 1/4SM VISIBILITIES AT BOTH CARRINGTON AND
JAMESTOWN AT MID MORNING ALONG WITH WEB CAMERAS SHOWING THE LOW
VISIBILITIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94 AT JAMESTOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THIS FOG SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER LACKS
MUCH LOW-LEVEL STABILITY...AND SHOULD BE WARMING WITH TIME...BUT
THE FOG WAS UNEXPECTED AND NOT WELL-RESOLVED BY MODEL GUIDANCE SO
OUR CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN NORMAL.

OTHERWISE...WE DID LINGER LOW-END POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW LONGER THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND BASED ON RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM NEAR HAZEN TOWARD NEW SALEM AT 14 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

COOL TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE AND CLEARING SKIES WEST TODAY
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

RADAR RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH 0830 UTC. THE 00 UTC GLOBAL AND 00-07 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION
SUITES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE SNOW BY LATE THIS MORNING. ONE
HALF INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S ARE FORECAST AREA WIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER...THE
STRATUS MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO
THE EAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

MILD TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A POSSIBLE MID
WEEK COOL DOWN HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC GLOBAL SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A SLOW WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND NORTHERN MONTANA. A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THUS...A LARGE GRADIENT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
FORECAST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
NORTH CENTRAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MARK ANOTHER POTENTIAL COOL DOWN BACK TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. REGARDING PRECIPITATION...A
WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

MVFR AND LOW VFR CEILINGS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND BY THIS EVENING WE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ND BETWEEN ABOUT 06 AND
16 UTC DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOWMELT TODAY...BUT THERE IS
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THAT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...CJS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1139 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE STATE
LATE SUNDAY...THEN BE REPLACED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK SHIELD OF RASN IN SOUTHWESTERN PA.
MOST REPORTS IMPLY ANY RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIXED TURNS TO SNOW IF IT
GETS STEADIER. SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REPORTS AS OF 11 AM
MOSTLY FROM SOMERSET TO ADAMS COUNTY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.

RADAR IMPLIES SNOW AND RASN TRYING TO MOVE UP THE SOUTH MOUNTAINS
AND SHOULD GET INTO JOHNSTOWN AND ALTOONA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. VERY LIGHT.

CENTRAL AREAS ARE SEEING THE SUN THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND IN THE
NORTH ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER IT IS SUNNY. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE THE 30S AND 40S. IN AREAS OF LIGHT SN/RASN THEY WILL
FALL AS THE DEW POINTS ARE QUITE LOW.

NCEP 3KM HRRR IS QUITE WARM SO OUTSIDE OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOWS
RAIN AS PTYPE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AND IT KEEPS ALL THE
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.

SO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RASN FREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

THE TREND IN THE HRRR CONTINUES IN THE NAM AND SREF...MOST OF THE
QPF STAYS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND LITTLE OR NO
QPF TO THE NORTH. THUS BEST CHANCE RASN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY IS ABOUT 1.5 COUNTIES DEEP ALONG THE MARYLAND BORDER.

DUE TO LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR AND LACK OF SOLAR RADIATION ALL THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW SHORTLY AFTER DARK. THE SREF 3-HOUR
POPS PEAK IN THE 00 TO 03 UTC RANGE AND FALL OFF FAST AFTERWARDS.

SOME AREAS COULD SEE A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO. BEST CHANCES OF 1
OR MORE INCHES LIKELY IN THE LAURELS AND SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
POINTS TO THE EAST.

SUNDAY DURING THE DAY...SOME FLURRIES/SNIZZLE LINGERS IN EASTERN
AREAS. POPS LOWER DURING DAY AS THE ANEMIC SLOW SNEAKS OFF THE
COAST.

THE COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW TRIGGER SOME SNOW IN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SUNDAY IN THE SREF. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LVL TROF AXIS WILL SWING THRU CENTRAL PA SUN NIGHT...LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SNOW SHOWERS...ESP OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WX AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN WAKE OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW EAST OF NEW
ENG. AIR MASS CROSSING THE GRT LKS SHOULD BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SCT -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU MONDAY.

RAPID MODERATION EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS
OUT AND IS REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE E COAST. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE PLACEMENT OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A PERIOD OF DRY WX APPEARS
LIKELY MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SFC RIDGE...BUT
AFTER THAT LATEST ECENS SUPPORTS THE CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THE REST
OF WEEK GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FRONT. LATEST GEFS/ECENS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY...AS E COAST RIDGE WEAKENS
AND SIG SHORTWAVE WORKS EAST THRU THE GRT LKS.

AFTER SOME CHILLY WX EARLY IN THE WEEK...ALL SIGNALS ARE FOR ABV
NORMAL TEMPS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS DEEP SW FLOW DRAWS MILDER
AIR INTO PA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MOSTLY VFR AND SOME MVFR IN SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. MOST AREAS WILL
STAY VFR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE MVFR WILL IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN/SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH.

GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IN SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DECREASES AS THE STORM SLIPS OUT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.

SUNDAY MORE VFR. COULD SEE SOME MVFR AS SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT-SUN...MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST IN SNOW.
SUN-MON...BECOMING BREEZY...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SW IN WESTERN
MTS.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW MTNS. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 820 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE STATE
LATE SUNDAY...THEN BE REPLACED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE DAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE LOW-
LEVEL COLD AIR. AN ANTICYCLONE TO OUR NORTH AND SOME LATE SEASON
COLD AIR COMBINED WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN/SNOW INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MOSTLY SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS PENNSYLVANIA
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN CLOSER TO THE MARYLAND BORDER.

THE HRRR AND SREF TEND TO KEEP THE RAIN/SNOW CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
PA AND OF COURSE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. IN MOST SOUTHERN AREAS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OR RAIN MIXED
WITH WET SNOW.

FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE NY BORDER SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE SUN
AT TIMES UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN UP LATER TODAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM ARND 32F OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
SOMERSET CO...TO THE M40S ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE IS LIKELY...ESP EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS NCEAR 3KM EFS IMPLIES 60 TO 90 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND 50 TO 70
CHANCE OF ABOUT 3 INCHES NEARER THE MD BORDER....

G SCALE FORCING WEAKENS TONIGHT...AS JET ENTRANCE AND ASSOC FGEN
FORCING WEAKEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BULK OF MDL GUIDANCE
POINTING TOWARD A DRY NIGHT OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...EASTERLY FLOW/OROGRAPHIC FORCING COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG THE MD BORDER COULD SUPPORT A BIT OF LINGERING LGT
SNOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TONIGHT DOWN
THERE SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THRU SUNDAY...TRACKING
UPPER LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE PHASING WITH N STREAM
SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PHASING AND ASSOC COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR TOO LATE TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT OF PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY FROM DEVELOPING COASTAL. THE MORE PROBABLE
SCENARIO WILL BE A MAINLY DRY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SUN NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF AXIS. ANY VERY LIGHT
PRECIP THAT OCCURS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LVL TROF AXIS WILL SWING THRU CENTRAL PA SUN NIGHT...LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SNOW SHOWERS...ESP OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WX AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN WAKE OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW EAST OF NEW
ENG. AIR MASS CROSSING THE GRT LKS SHOULD BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SCT -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU MONDAY.

RAPID MODERATION EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS
OUT AND IS REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE E COAST. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE PLACEMENT OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A PERIOD OF DRY WX APPEARS
LIKELY MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SFC RIDGE...BUT
AFTER THAT LATEST ECENS SUPPORTS THE CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THE REST
OF WEEK GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FRONT. LATEST GEFS/ECENS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY...AS E COAST RIDGE WEAKENS
AND SIG SHORTWAVE WORKS EAST THRU THE GRT LKS.

AFTER SOME CHILLY WX EARLY IN THE WEEK...ALL SIGNALS ARE FOR ABV
NORMAL TEMPS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS DEEP SW FLOW DRAWS MILDER
AIR INTO PA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THERE
ARE SOME PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS BELOW THE HIGHER CLOUD DECK
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE HAVE CAUSED
SPORADIC MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT SOME SITES /KBFD AND KJST/
OVERNIGHT.

MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE FROM SW-NE
DURING THE DAY TODAY. HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
SNOW MOVING INTO KJST AROUND NOON...AND SOME LIGHTER SNOW INTO
KAOO...KMDT AND KLNS MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AREAS REMAIN
VFR. LOOK FOR SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON.

AT THIS POINT...EASTERN AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE RESTRICTIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM...WITH WESTERN AREAS SEEING MORE
SNOW SHOWERY ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST IN SNOW.
SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING BREEZY...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SW IN
WESTERN MTS.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW MTNS. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 251 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AND BRING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRIER
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM SATURDAY...COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM
AS UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DIVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AT AFD TIME...SURFACE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH WARM/WEDGE FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST
ALONG OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE SC/NC STATE LINE. DAMMING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NC PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THOSE AREAS.

FIRST ITEM OF NOTE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS ACTUALLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING
250J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE UPSTATE...WITH RAP FORECASTING THAT
TO DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A LINE OF CONVECTION
/THOUGH NO CGS OBSERVED YET/ HAS DEVELOPED GENERALLY ALONG THE
NC/TN STATE LINE AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST GA. AS THE UPPER
LOW DIPS DOWN...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS MAY BRIEFLY COINCIDE
WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STORMS. DO NOT REALLY EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST...CAA WILL
KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TO JUXTAPOSE
TEMPERATURES VERSUS CLOUD COVER BUT FOR NOW BEST GUESS IS THAT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WILL BE SOLIDLY BELOW
FREEZING...WITH FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS. FOR ASHEVILLE AND
THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO WARM
FOR FROST...BUT OVER THE LITTLE TENNESSEE SHOULD SEE LOWS DROP
ENOUGH TO WARRANT FROST MENTION IN THE GRIDS. SINCE ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS HAD THEIR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM TURNED ON
YESTERDAY...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE FIVE SOUTHWEST NC
COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FOR THE MOST PART...PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT THIS EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW...BUT AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE IN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID...MODELS HAVE PERFORMED QUITE
POORLY TODAY SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS IS PRETTY LOW
GIVEN WE ARE TALKING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY
MAY REMAIN ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DURING THE DAY...AND THEN BACK OVER TO SNOW IN
THE EVENING. THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
INCH OR SO ACROSS MAINLY THE SMOKIES BUT COMBINED WITH SNOW PAST
00Z SUNDAY AS WE PUSH INTO THE SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH WPC SNOW FORECASTS. THIS IS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONFIDENCE LEVELS AND
THE FACT THAT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SPS MENTION AND WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE THE HI-RES GUIDANCE TO REFINE THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM SATURDAY...ON SUNDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN USA...AND A TROUGH RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN USA. A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WILL EXIT OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN PROGRESSES AND DEAMPLIFIES
RESULTING IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SUNDAY EVENING A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW
WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST. COLD MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS SPREADING
WELL EAST OF THE TN BORDER. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS OF MOISTURE EVEN
SPILLING OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN IN THOSE LOCATIONS. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE TN BORDER ON MONDAY...BUT COLD MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE TN BORDER THROUGH THE DAY...FINALLY ENDING OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT SNOW TOTALS WILL NOT MEET ADVISORY OR
WARNING CRITERIA...AND THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY FEATURES DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...UNTIL ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE
RIDGING ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. WITH PLANT LIFE AT AN ADVANCED STAGE DUE
TO WARM TEMPERATURES EARLIER IN THE MONTH...FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED. FROST ADVISORIES ARE LESS CERTAIN...AS DRIER AIR MAY LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BY TUESDAY EVENING THE CHANGE
IN WEATHER REGIME WILL HAVE HAPPENED...WITH THE AXIS OF A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND PUSHING THE SURFACE HIGH
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDOWN. THAT SHOULD LEAVE US WITH A
FAIRLY SPECTACULAR EARLY SPRING DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND TEMPS ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...SO CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. AFTER THAT...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOT HAD THE
BEST CONTINUITY WITH THAT ONE...AND SHOW A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROF TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW ARE
MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND NOW A COLD FRONT GETS MORE STRUNG OUT
SW TO NE...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE TIMING
HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH...BUT THE MID/UPPER FORCING
DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT HAD IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS.
LOW LEVEL FORCING ALSO DIMINISHES AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHANCE RANGE BECAUSE OF THE
MODEL FORCING TREND. THE GFS STILL BRINGS A PLUME OF WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS NE GA AND UPSTATE SC...ALONG WITH MODERATE
SHEAR...SO THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED...AND WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME
SEVERE STORMS ON THAT DAY JUST YET. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO NEXT SATURDAY LOOKS QUIET AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS CONTINUE VFR AT TAF TIME AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT
TREND FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. WEDGE FRONT JUST PUSHED THROUGH THE
AIRPORT SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH...FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON
TCLT AND ON VISIBLE SATELLITE BUT UNFORTUNATELY THIS WAS ONLY AFTER
IT HAD SWUNG THE WINDS AROUND. WITH KCLT NOW IN THE MORE STABLE
AIR...HAVE REMOVED THE TEMPO BUT KEPT VCSH...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE
OUT IN CASE QUICK TEMPO TSRA NEEDS TO BE ADDED. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR AROUND 00Z...GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR SO. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO
DROP CIGS TO IFR OVERNIGHT BUT GIVEN RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE /WHICH
WAS PRETTY ABYSMAL TODAY/ HAVE NOT BITTEN OFF ON THAT...PREFERRING
INSTEAD TO WATCH TRENDS AND UPDATE IF NECESSARY. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN NE THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND 10KT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY SIMILAR TREND TO KCLT BUT WITH ADJUSTMENTS
IN TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT BASED ON MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE AREA...CURRENTLY NEAR KAVL AT TAF TIME. KAVL STILL SEEING
DOWN-VALLEY WINDS BUT ONCE THE LOW PASSES SHOULD SWING AROUND TO
THE N. CONTINUED TEMPO TSRA FOR UPSTATE TAFS GIVEN THEIR LOCATION
SOUTH OF THE WEDGE FRONT AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. ALL
SITES SHOULD BE MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE
NE AROUND OR JUST BELOW 10KT.

OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE WITH
ANY SHOWERS UNDER THE PASSING TROUGH. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  98%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     MED   78%
KHKY       MED   78%     HIGH  85%     MED   78%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ051-052-
     058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...TDP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 823 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE EARLIER RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA AFTER DROPPING NEARLY 1
INCH OF SNOW AROUND THE MONTEREY AREA ON THE PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOW APPROACHING THE MID STATE FROM THE
NORTH...AND HRRR MODEL INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO 06Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. MAIN OTHER CONCERN IS CLOUD
COVER...WHICH BOTH VERTICAL MOISTURE PLOTS FROM GFS/NAM AND
UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S AND UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER APPEARS SCATTERED IN NATURE...ANY
CLOUDS COULD STILL PREVENT SOME AREAS FROM REACHING THE FREEZING
MARK AS WELL AS NEGATE ANY FROST FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP INHERITED FREEZE WARNING AS IS. NOTE
THAT MUCH OF NASHVILLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND...BUT OUTLYING PARTS OF DAVIDSON COUNTY
AND ESPECIALLY THE SUBURBS ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL NEAR/BELOW
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD LOW ALOFT DRIVING MUCH COLDER TEMPS DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ALONG WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN UP TODAY AS
SURFACE GRADIENT HAS REMAINED TIGHT BUT SHOULD RELAX DURING THE
EVENING. VORT MAX AXIS EXTENDS DIAGONALLY NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO FORCING WILL BE SHUTTING OFF SHORTLY
AND SHOULD SEE FEWER LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND
FINALLY A CESSATION BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS COLD CORE (-32
CELSIUS AT 500 MBARS) LOW ALOFT PULLS AWAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      33  55  36  69  50 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    31  54  37  68  52 /  20   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     28  48  32  62  46 /  20   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       30  55  35  69  49 /  20   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   31  55  35  68  49 /  20   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        31  55  37  68  52 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BEDFORD-CANNON-
CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-DE KALB-DICKSON-
FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-JACKSON-LAWRENCE-
LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-VAN
BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

 1023 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW BEING LOCATED IN OUR
SOUTHEAST CWA AT THE MOMENT...THE RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY HAS FIZZLED
OUT...AND CLOUDS HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY.
THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE GULF CUTTING OFF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STABILIZING THE MIDLEVELS...PLUS THE LACK OF
SYNPOTIC FORCING ALOFT. RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN IN SRN KY
MOVING EAST...AND THE HRRR AND NAM TRY TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH AFTERNOON FROPA...BUT THIS IS
LIKELY OVERDONE. POPS WILL BE LOWERED WITH THE MORNING
UPDATE...KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOST SPOTS...AND TEMPERATURES
RAISED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LACK OF CLOUDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1138 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/

UPDATE...

A FEW MINOR UPDATES MADE THIS EVENING...

FIRST...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ARRIVING SLIGHTLY MORE
QUICKLY...LIKELY DRIVEN BY PRECIPITATION THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER FALLING INTO A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. THIS COOLED
PREFRONTAL TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
ARRIVING SHORTLY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE HRRR IS GROSSLY
OVERDONE. OTHERWISE...COOLER CONDITIONS ARE STILL ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO
MIDLAND TEXAS. A SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM NEAR MIDLAND TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF SHOWERS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. AROUND 6 PM...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.

LINGERING SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE MAY SET OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-30 POPS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP
ANY FROST FROM DEVELOPING.

AN UPPER TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
WEST TENNESSEE. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR SUNDAY
EVENING. AFTER A COOL DAY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR. THE ONE CAVEAT MAY BE
IF THE WINDS STAY UP...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. A FROST OR FREEZE COULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUCH AN EXTENDED WARM PERIOD...NEWLY BLOOMED
VEGETATION MAY BE IMPACTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.

NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

VFR PREVAILED AT 04Z...WITH SCATTERED -SHRA FALLING FROM MIDLEVEL
CLOUD BASES. EXPECT VFR VSBY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR SETTLING IN ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS. POST FRONTAL MVFR WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF TOWARD DAYBREAK...LIKELY SHORT-LIVED...WHILE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP RADIATION FOG AT BAY AT TUP DURING THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1137 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. MVFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STILL MIGHT GET A FEW
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WILL FOSTER STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/

UPDATE...
WHILE EARLIER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HOUSTON METRO HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE METRO AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE FRONT
ROUGHLY ALONG A LUFKIN...HUNTSVILLE...BRENHAM LINE. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE REMAINING
SCATTERED AT BEST AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THE A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THAN EARLIER THIS EVENING
/LIMITING THE OVERALL STRONG STORM THREAT TONIGHT/. HOWEVER...
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR JACKSON COUNTY/AREAS AROUND
MATAGORDA BAY FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS IT POSSIBLY PUSHES EAST
FROM NEAR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/COASTAL COUNTIES.

THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH ELEVATED /20-30 MPH/
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS TO SHIFT SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT... EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FEATURES OF NOTE AT 3 PM WERE A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...A STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR AND EAST OF HOUSTON COUNTY...AND A COLD FRONT NEAR A LINE
FROM TERRELL TO NEAR WACO. THE AIRMASS OVER SE TX HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CAPPED ALL DAY...HOWEVER DO EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING AS THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AND THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. SOME HAVE ALREADY STARTED OVER TRINITY
AND POLK COUNTIES NEAR WHERE THE GRAVITY WAVE WAS INTERACTING WITH
THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT.

THE MODELS DIFFERED A BIT ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE DONE WELL SO FAR AND
BOTH HAVE LESS COVERAGE THAN WAS EARLIER FORECAST. THE NAM12...
ARW...NMM...AND TO AN EXTENT THE RAP13...ALSO AGREE WITH LESS
COVERAGE. THE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFLUENT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE SHEARING OUT SYSTEM IN MEXICO. DO
EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO OCCUR AT LEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BECAUSE
OF THIS...DECIDED TO GO WITH NO MORE THAN 50 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST SHOULD OCCUR AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SE
TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT LEAST ALONG
THE COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.

40

MARINE...
THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM...OR ONCE THE
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT ARRIVE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
POSTED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. GUSTS TO 30KT ARE A
POSSIBILITY SAT MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND SWING BACK ONSHORE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND SEAS THEN BUILD
INTO MIDWEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. 47

FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER
MSUNNY SKIES. RH`S SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 27-32% RANGE WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE MET, BUT MAY BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  62  42  63  40 /  40  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  66  46  66  41 /  50  20  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  68  53  65  51 /  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1103 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.UPDATE...
WHILE EARLIER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HOUSTON METRO HAS SINCE
DISSIPATEED... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE METRO AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE FRONT
ROUGHLY ALONG A LUFKIN...HUNTSVILLE...BRENHAM LINE. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE REMAINING
SCATTERED AT BEST AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THE A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THAN EARLIER THIS EVENING
/LIMITING THE OVERALL STRONG STORM THREAT TONIGHT/. HOWEVER...
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR JACKSON COUNTY/AREAS AROUND
MATAGORDA BAY FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS IT POSSIBLY PUSHES EAST
FROM NEAR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/COASTAL COUNTIES.

THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH ELEVATED /20-30 MPH/
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS TO SHIFT SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT... EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/

AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF BUSH IAH BUT MAY AFFECT
BOTH KSGR AND KHOU. CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG NW-N WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO BREAK BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FEATURES OF NOTE AT 3 PM WERE A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...A STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR AND EAST OF HOUSTON COUNTY...AND A COLD FRONT NEAR A LINE
FROM TERRELL TO NEAR WACO. THE AIRMASS OVER SE TX HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CAPPED ALL DAY...HOWEVER DO EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING AS THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AND THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. SOME HAVE ALREADY STARTED OVER TRINITY
AND POLK COUNTIES NEAR WHERE THE GRAVITY WAVE WAS INTERACTING WITH
THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT.

THE MODELS DIFFERED A BIT ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE DONE WELL SO FAR AND
BOTH HAVE LESS COVERAGE THAN WAS EARLIER FORECAST. THE NAM12...
ARW...NMM...AND TO AN EXTENT THE RAP13...ALSO AGREE WITH LESS
COVERAGE. THE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFLUENT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE SHEARING OUT SYSTEM IN MEXICO. DO
EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO OCCUR AT LEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BECAUSE
OF THIS...DECIDED TO GO WITH NO MORE THAN 50 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST SHOULD OCCUR AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SE
TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT LEAST ALONG
THE COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.

40

MARINE...
THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM...OR ONCE THE
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT ARRIVE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
POSTED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. GUSTS TO 30KT ARE A
POSSIBILITY SAT MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND SWING BACK ONSHORE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND SEAS THEN BUILD
INTO MIDWEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. 47

FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER
MSUNNY SKIES. RH`S SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 27-32% RANGE WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE MET, BUT MAY BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  62  42  63  40 /  40  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  66  46  66  41 /  50  20  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  68  53  65  51 /  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 949 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY...THEN PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT SUNDAY...

USED THE NAM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FOR THE DAY MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TENNESSEE IS MOVING EAST AND WILL CROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A
LEADING SHORT WAVE WITH FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL DRYING NOW INTO
EASTERN VIRGINIA. THE BACK EDGE PF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS ROUGHLY FROM LYNCHBURG TO
WILKESBORO. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AS SNOW AT
TEMPERATURES BELOW 36 DEGREES WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM 37
TO 40 DEGREES. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW GET CLOSER AND THE UPSLOPE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGES INCREASES...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FILL BACK IN BY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY. EXPECTING
CLEARING SKY AND WINDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONGER SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP WITH
MODEST PRESSURE RISES OVER THE NC MTNS. A 35 TO 40 KT 8H
NORTHWESTERLY JET IS PROGGED BY 12Z MONDAY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LOWERING INVERSION AND SOME CLEARING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST TO
35 TO 45 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NC MTNS INTO THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE VA BLUE RIDGE FROM FANCY GAP TO
ROANOKE. WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. ONCE
THE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND
THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THEN LOOK FOR THEM TO DIP
BELOW FREEZING. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NC
FOOTHILLS. THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN PER COLLABORATION WITH
AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION AGENTS HAS ALSO STARTED IN SMYTH AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA THANKS TO THE WARMER TEMPS THE
PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO GSP AND MRX THE
FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 10AM
MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST
RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE GULF COAST.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL...BUT AT LEAST 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE 12Z GFS WAS ABOUT TWO HOURS LATE TODAY DUE TO TECHNICAL
DIFFICULTIES. FORTUNATELY...IT PAINTS THE SAME STORY AS THE 12Z NAM
AND THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER
THE GULF COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...THAT WILL SEND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN FLATTENS AND TURNS ZONAL BY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL
BRING THE MID ATLANTIC A SOUTHWEST FLOW. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH HIGHS TOWARD THE 50S AND 60S.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG EASTWARD
FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DOWNSTREAM
RESPONSE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING RIDGING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC. THUS...THE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SEND HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ORGANIZE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND HEAD EAST OF THE PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS MAY BE NOTICED WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE OF ANY
RAIN ARRIVES LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE IN THE MODELS. THE GFS
PUSHES THE MOISTURE INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND HAS THE
FRONT EXITING ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING
THE MOISTURE INTO THE CWA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...AND HAS THE FRONT
EXITING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
HELD THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE RAMPING IT UP ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE TIMING OFF THE ECMWF WOULD MAKE IT COMPLETELY UNFAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION...THE GFS ALLOWS A SMALL WINDOW FOR CONVECTION TO THE
WEST BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FURTHER LOOK AT THE CAPE VALUES
INDICATES HARDLY ANY INSTABILITY PRESENT IN THE GFS...SO NO THUNDER
WAS INSERTED THROUGHOUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY COULD LIKELY END UP 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE HIGHS FROM THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS PUSHES A NEW LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE CWA. DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT CHANCES OF RAIN
COULD RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS COULD HINDER FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE
AND FOG. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COMBINATION OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW CAPTURES
THE PRECIPITATION QUITE WELL WITH THE UPPER LOW. CONDITIONS WILL
BE MUCH WORSE TO OUR SOUTH WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NC INTO EASTERN TN AND NORTHERN GA.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD VFR RETURN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUSTS OVER 20 KTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT IN THE MTNS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ009.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ003-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...KK/PM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY...THEN PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

12Z GFS MODEL RAN 2 HOURS LATE BUT WITHOUT UPPER AIR OR AIRCRAFT
DATA.

FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING HAS BEEN HEAVILY WEIGHTED TO THE
HRRR...THEN USED THE NAM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FOR THE DAY MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TENNESSEE IS MOVING EAST AND WILL CROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WAS FALLING PRIMARILY AS RAIN...HOWEVER WHEN IT
ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER AIR OVER THE MTNS OF TN/NC...THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN AN AXIS FROM MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE VA SOUTH INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NC. THE HRRR EXPANDS THIS
AREA OF PRECIP TO ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 23Z/7PM...THEN MOVES IT EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF
THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND 04Z MIDNIGHT. AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF QPF IS FORECAST...AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO ABOUT AN INCH
OF SNOW FOR OUR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN VA AND INTO THE
NW NC HIGH COUNTRY...AND POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ON BEECH MTN.
ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE A STRETCH TO GET THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATION. THE PTYPE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN OVER
THE PIEDMONT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FOOTHILLS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME
TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS INCREASING
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP WITH MODEST PRESSURE RISES OVER THE NC
MTNS. A 35 TO 40 KT 8H NORTHWESTERLY JET IS PROGGED BY 12Z MONDAY
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWERING INVERSION AND SOME CLEARING WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NC MTNS
INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE VA BLUE RIDGE
FROM FANCY GAP TO ROANOKE. WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. ONCE
THE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND
THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THEN LOOK FOR THEM TO DIP
BELOW FREEZING. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NC
FOOTHILLS. THE GROWING SEASON PER COLLABORATION WITH AGRICULTURAL
EXTENSION AGENTS HAS ALSO STARTED IN SMYTH AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES
IN VIRGINIA THANKS TO THE WARMER TEMPS THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
PER COORDINATION WITH WFO GSP AND MRX THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE
IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 10AM MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST
RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE GULF COAST.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL...BUT AT LEAST 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE 12Z GFS WAS ABOUT TWO HOURS LATE TODAY DUE TO TECHNICAL
DIFFICULTIES. FORTUNATELY...IT PAINTS THE SAME STORY AS THE 12Z NAM
AND THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER
THE GULF COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...THAT WILL SEND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN FLATTENS AND TURNS ZONAL BY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL
BRING THE MID ATLANTIC A SOUTHWEST FLOW. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH HIGHS TOWARD THE 50S AND 60S.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG EASTWARD
FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DOWNSTREAM
RESPONSE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING RIDGING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC. THUS...THE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SEND HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ORGANIZE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND HEAD EAST OF THE PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS MAY BE NOTICED WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE OF ANY
RAIN ARRIVES LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE IN THE MODELS. THE GFS
PUSHES THE MOISTURE INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND HAS THE
FRONT EXITING ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING
THE MOISTURE INTO THE CWA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...AND HAS THE FRONT
EXITING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
HELD THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE RAMPING IT UP ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE TIMING OFF THE ECMWF WOULD MAKE IT COMPLETELY UNFAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION...THE GFS ALLOWS A SMALL WINDOW FOR CONVECTION TO THE
WEST BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FURTHER LOOK AT THE CAPE VALUES
INDICATES HARDLY ANY INSTABILITY PRESENT IN THE GFS...SO NO THUNDER
WAS INSERTED THROUGHOUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY COULD LIKELY END UP 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE HIGHS FROM THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS PUSHES A NEW LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE CWA. DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT CHANCES OF RAIN
COULD RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS COULD HINDER FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE
AND FOG. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COMBINATION OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW CAPTURES
THE PRECIPITATION QUITE WELL WITH THE UPPER LOW. CONDITIONS WILL
BE MUCH WORSE TO OUR SOUTH WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NC INTO EASTERN TN AND NORTHERN GA.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD VFR RETURN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUSTS OVER 20 KTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT IN THE MTNS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     VAZ009.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ003-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...KK/PM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PORTLAND OR

 633 PM PDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING STARTS OUT NORMAL HERE IN OUR AREA...WITH CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS. FIRST FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON... BUT
ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM WILL BARREL ACROSS REGION MON AND TUE.
THEN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON WED BEFORE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION RETURN FORE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT`S FORECAST
TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WATERS...COAST...COAST RANGE...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THESE STORMS MAY STAY TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE NE
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OREGON. THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL FAIRLY WARM IN EUGENE AND SALEM...IN THE UPPER 50S...AND MAY
KEEP THE STORMS GOING IF THEY MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. THERE IS
ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST...THAT ARE ALSO HEADED TOWARDS NW OREGON. THESE STORMS MAY
MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE NORTH COAST...AND NORTH COAST
RANGE TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY WILL MAKE IT EAST OF THE COAST
RANGE. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LOW PRES NOW
SITS OFFSHORE FROM THE PAC NW. OCCLUDED FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE SUN
AM RAIN IS NOW BUCKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. AT 2 PM...THE
FRONT WAS JUST CLEARING THE COAST OF WEST CENTRAL OREGON...AND
SHOULD MOVE N AND E ACROSS REST OF NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON BY 5
PM. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POP IN THE EARLY EVENING THEN DROP TO CHANCE POPS FOR REST
OF TONIGHT.

NEXT DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE...BUT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL...MOST OF THE JET ENERGY REMAINS
TO OUR SOUTH...CARRYING BULK OF THE DYNAMICS INTO INTO SW OREGON THEN
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. WHILE THAT AREA MAY SEE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS FOR MON AND TUE...STILL CAN NOT IGNORE THE LARGE AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR ALOFT THAT WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER NW OREGON AND W WASHINGTON
LATER TONIGHT AND MON. SO...SHOULD SEE RATHER GOOD INSTABILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON MON INTO MON
EVENING. WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING BACK TO 3500 TO 4000 FT...ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. AGAIN BEST TIMING WOULD
BE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING.

WHILE SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE. TO MAKE IT WORSE...SHOWERS TEND TO LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY
AND NON-UNIFORM ACCUMULATIONS. SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT ABOUT 3 TO
8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MON THROUGH TUE ON THE CASCADES...MAINLY ABOVE
4000 FT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES LATER TUE... WILL
SEE UPPER FLOW TURN FROM A W-SW COMPONENT ON MON TO MORE W-NW BY TUE
AFTERNOON. AT SAME TIME...HGTS AND TEMPS ALOFT START TO WARM A TAD.
ALL IN ALL...AM EXPECTING DECREASING SHOWERS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE
EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER THREAT ENDING LATER TUE NIGHT.

COULD BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ON WED...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. BUT ALL DEPENDS ON EXTENT AND THICKNESS OF CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODELS STILL SHOW THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT ITS PRECIPITATION. BUT
STILL THINK BULK OF WED WILL BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
REGION. IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...HAVE INCREASED
THREAT OF RAIN OVER S WASH/N OREGON COASTAL AREAS AND N INLAND AREAS
FOR LATER WED AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...ITS SPRING. AT LEAST IT IS NOT
A MUGGY 100 DEG OR A FRIGID 20 DEG DAY.    ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION WILL PUSH ONSHORE AND INTO THE
CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY IN THE POST-
FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A LITTLE LOWER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
HOWEVER WITH A SOME VARIATION AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FAIRLY WIDE
ENSEMBLE SPREADS. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT A TRANSIENT RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL GIVE A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD...BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ALONG THESE LINES AND IN A NOD TO THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS...LIMITED POPS TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR
MUCH OF SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...TO DEPICT THIS LIKELY BREAK. THE
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SOMETIME SUNDAY...PERHAPS EARLIER IN THE DAY IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...BUT AGAIN TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE
ECMWF WHICH BRINGS THE RAIN ONSHORE CLOSER TO THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING ONSHORE AS OF 21Z. IT`S MORE
LIKELY TO SEE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST ALONG WITH
COAST RANGE TERRAIN OBSCURATION. AM SEEING A BRIEF PERIOD WITH
CIGS 015-025 BUT FEEL THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE TRAILING
SHOWERS SHOULD BREAK IT UP. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CIGS
WITH THE OCCASIONAL MVFR BKN DECK POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS DEVELOP MORE
THAN EXPECTED. THEN SHOULD SEE A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK IN THE ACTION
TOWARDS SUNSET BEFORE GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE AGGRESSIVE ON
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A SECOND FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH
AFTER 21/11Z. GRADUALLY COOLING AIR MASS SHOULD HELP KEEP CIGS
AROUND THE 030 MARK AS SHOWERS TRAIL THAT NEXT FRONT. SHOULD GET
SOME DEEPER CONVECTION TOMORROW WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED HAIL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...ONLY EXPECT VISUAL APPROACH RATES TO BE
IMPACTED DUE TO TERRAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY. WILL SEE CIGS LIFT CLOSER TO 070 AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO
APPROACH WITH MVFR CIGS AFT 21/14Z. LOW CLOUD BASE SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY KEEP BROKEN CIGS THROUGH 21/00Z. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
/JBONK
&&

.MARINE...FRONT HAS MOVED ASHORE MOST AREAS AND WILL EXIT THE
NORTHERN WATERS SHORTLY. SPEEDS HAVE NOT BEEN TERRIBLY EXCEPTIONAL
AND SEAS HAVE REMAINED 6-8 FT AS A RESULT. DO SEE A 10-12 FT SWELL
MOVING AT THE OUTER BUOYS MOVING TOWARD THE COAST SO WILL KEEP THE
SCA FOR SEAS IN PLACE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
KEEPING THE SCA FOR WINDS AS WELL. MODELS STILL NOT GIVING A
COMPELLING REASON TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR THE NEXT FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THEIR LACKLUSTER PERFORMANCE ON THE
CURRENT FRONT. DID...HOWEVER...EXTEND BOTH ADVISORIES IN
TIME...JUST A FEW HOURS FOR THE WINDS INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
ABOUT 24 HOURS FOR THE SEAS ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY NOT LOWER BELOW 10
FT FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.

INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO RELAX A BIT
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TO THE
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY. SEAS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY CLIMB BACK INTO
THE LOW TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. JBONK/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT
       THROUGH 3 PM MON ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
       EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM MON.

&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
430 PM PDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool, wet and breezy weather pattern will return to the Inland
Northwest this week. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on
Monday with the arrival of a cold front. On Tuesday, the mountains
of the central and southern Idaho Panhandle will have a good
chance of receiving heavy and wet snow. A brief break in the
active pattern on Wednesday will be followed by wet and locally
windy conditions Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...Clouds continue to thicken and lower ahead of the
incoming wet frontal system that will spread rain (with snow for
the very higher mountain locations above five to six thousand feet
above mean sea level) from southwest to northeast tonight over
Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho. The HRRR runs of the past
few hours have a fairly good depiction of the scenario with
rainfall expected in the Spokane area between 4 and 5 pm PDT. As
to be expected with the good warm south and southwest trajectories
of flow through the frontal zone forecast temperatures overnight
tonight will remain on the warm side of climo. /Pelatti

Monday: The moist frontal system that is expected to move through
tonight will cause temperatures to be a handful of degrees cooler
on Monday. It looks like afternoon highs will be in the 50s for
most of the Inland Northwest. The cooling aloft behind tonight`s
front will be more significant. Steepening mid-level lapse rates
on Monday combined with an approaching upper trough will create an
environment favorable for the formation of spring-time showers.
The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are forecasting enough deep layer
instability for widely scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon
and evening. At this time, it looks like the most concentrated
thunderstorm activity will be over central and northeast Oregon
Monday afternoon where 500mb cooling will be the most pronounced
under the incoming upper trough, but it is hard to rule out the
possibility of thunderstorms over much of Washington and north
Idaho. Small hail, brief heavy rain, and cloud to ground lightning
will be the primary hazards Monday afternoon and early evening.

Monday night and Tuesday: Our attention Monday night into Tuesday
will turn to falling snow levels and the potential for a locally
heavy band of precipitation over the Camas Prairie, central Idaho
Panhandle, and possibly the Palouse. There is decent agreement
between the GFS, ECMWF and NAM that an inch or more of liquid
equivalent could fall within a deformation band late Monday night
into Tuesday evening. Snow levels will be very tricky, and we
could see them drop as low as 2500 feet over the Clearwaters,
Palouse and southern Shoshone county. A Winter Weather Advisory or
Winter Storm Warning may be necessary. At this time, 8 to 12
inches looks like a good bet for elevations above 3500 feet in
southern Shoshone county, and these amounts could occur at lower
elevations depending on the behavior and orientation of the
deformation band. Late season snow accumulations could even be
possible in places like Moscow, Pullman, St Maries, Winchester,
Deary, and Clarkia. If precipitation falls in the form of rain, we
will likely see rises on rivers and streams like Paradise Creek in
Moscow, the Palouse River, and Hangman Creek.

Wednesday and Thursday: Our region should be in between systems on
Wednesday as on system pulls out of the Idaho Panhandle during the
morning before the next more progressive frontal system arrives
Wednesday night. The frontal system Wednesday night will be
accompanied with stronger mid-level westerly flow. Look for a
pronounced "rain shadow" Wednesday night into Thursday morning
with the Columbia Basin receiving little measurable precipitation
while the mountains get much more. Snow levels look to be around
4000 feet Wednesday night into Thursday morning so Lookout Pass
and Stevens Pass will have the best shot of being impacted by
significant accumulations. Behind our fast moving front, Thursday
looks to be breezy over the Palouse, West Plains, and Upper
Columbia Basin. /GKoch

Thursday night through Sunday...There is good model agreement of an
upper trough dropping into the region from the northwest Thursday
night into Friday. This will result in a chance of showers in the
valleys with snow showers likely in the mountains. Wet snow may
mix in as low as 2000 to 2500 feet Friday morning. Northwest flow
will favor the best chances for accumulating snow in the Cascade
mountains...Blue Mountains...Camas Prairie...and Central Panhandle
Mountains. With the higher late March sun angle travel impacts in
the mountains should be confined to mainly overnight Thursday
night and early Friday except under the heavier snow showers. A
short wave ridge moves over the area on Saturday for drier
conditions. The ECMWF and GEM hold on to the ridge into Sunday
while the GFS is quicker to bring in another system. Right now the
forecast leans towards dry conditions for Sunday as well. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A wet frontal system continues to spread precipitation
in the form of rain across the far western locations near KEAT
and KMWH. For remaining TAF sites it will be slower to start with
rain starting between 01-03Z Monday. Rain will continue on
through much of the night with MVFR conditions due to the lower
ceilings associated with the rain. Back edge of the wet front
exits from west to east allowing rain to stop as early as 7Z
Monday for KEAT vicinity to as late as 14-16Z for KGEG and KCOE.
Scattered showers will develop in unstable airmass after 18Z
monday with -TSRA possible for all TAF sites after 20Z. Lowest
confidence for KEAT/KMWH...slightly higher for remaining TAF
sites. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  54  37  47  34  50 /  90  30  80  70  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  41  54  36  47  34  49 /  90  40  80  80  30  10
Pullman        42  54  38  43  35  49 /  90  40 100  80  40  10
Lewiston       44  58  41  47  38  55 /  90  50  90  80  40  10
Colville       37  57  35  50  33  53 /  80  30  40  30  20  10
Sandpoint      39  52  35  46  34  48 /  90  40  60  60  40  20
Kellogg        39  49  35  42  31  45 /  90  50 100  90  50  30
Moses Lake     42  61  39  53  35  56 /  70  20  80  50  10  10
Wenatchee      40  57  39  52  37  54 /  50  30  70  20  10  10
Omak           37  57  37  54  34  56 /  60  20  60  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 859 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

FORECAST FOCUS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ON THE CYCLONE CROSSING
THE REGION MID-WEEK...AND IT/S POTENTIAL TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. THOUGH EXHIBITING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM...AND CANADIAN
MODELS GENERATED A SYSTEM THAT WOULD BRING HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THESE MODELS...
SOME MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE
PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...AND HAD A
SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. IT/S TRACK COULD
STILL RESULT IN WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS OVER ABOUT THE SE 1/4 TO 1/3
OF THE FCST AREA...BUT WITH LOWER TOTALS AND A MUCH SHARPER
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION NW OF THE FOX VALLEY.

A FEW THOUGHTS ON THIS SYSTEM FROM ROUGHLY 3 DAYS OUT. BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF HAD GOOD SUPPORT FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEANS. LOOKED TO SEE IF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWED EVEN A SMALL
CLUSTERING OF MEMBERS WITH A MORE SLY TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF...AND FOUND NO EVIDENCE OF THAT. SO THERE DOESN/T SEEM TO
BE MUCH HELP FROM THE ENSEMBLE DATA. ONE THING THAT CAUGHT MY EYE
WAS THAT THE 12Z RUN OF THE UKMET TRACKED THE CYCLONE MUCH
FARTHER SE...BASICALLY EWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT WOULD
INDICATE SOME SUPPORT FOR A TRACK MORE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE
ECWMF...THOUGH UNLIKE THE ECMWF...THE UKMET WAS VERY FAST MOVG THE
SYSTEM EAST. IT/S ALSO HARD TO GO AGAINST THE ECMWF AFTER IT
CLEARLY OUT PERFORMED THE REST OF THE MODELS WITH LAST WEEKS
SYSTEM.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY COME INTO BETTER FOCUS
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT THERE IS REASON
TO BE AT LEAST A LITTLE SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALLS
GENERATED BY THE GFS. CURRENT HWO HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS TO AT LEAST PORTIONS
OF THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THAT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE SITUATION UNTIL BETTER
CONFIDENCE IS GAINED IN THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND AND
THE SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE BAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO AND APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND IS GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST.  EXPECT
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WI THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.  THE CU FIELD HAS NOT BEEN AS
ROBUST FARTHER SOUTH...AND THINK SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.  FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND SKY TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SHORT-TERM.

TONIGHT...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON THIS EVENING.  WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...THE HIGHER RES MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  A SMALL CHANCE REMAINS THAT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO FAR N-C WISCONSIN AND THE NORTHERN TIP
OF THE DOOR.  ELSEWHERE...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO BE PRESENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  AS A
RESULT...CLOUDS THAT BUILD THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE NORTH...EVEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  SOME BREAKS WILL
INEVITABLY OCCUR THOUGH. EXCEPT FOR THE DOOR PENINSULA...PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ONCE THE CU
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SINCE WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS AROUND...LOW
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH.

MONDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
MORNING.  THOUGH DIURNAL BUILD UP OF CU SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS TODAY...WILL HAVE AMPLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR A PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.  HIGHS AROUND
40 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

HIGHLIGHT OF THIS PERIOD TOWARD MID WEEK AS PROGS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO PASS OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION INCLUDING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

BUT FIRST...FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT LIFTING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED WITH A UPPER 100 KT
JETLET LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA. FORECAST TEMPS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW FOR FAR
NORTHEAST THEN TRENDING TO LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION APPEARS STILL ON TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS
SEPARATING THE COLD AIR MASS TO THE NORTH WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH
THE REGION OF HEAVY SNOW STARTING MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL THE
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.

WHILE CONFIDENCE OF A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS INCREASING FOR THE
REGION DUE TO A COLDER TREND...CONFIDENCE OF THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVY SNOW BAND REMAINS LOW. OVERVIEW OF THE LATEST PROGS...THE
GFS PAINTS THE HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS WELL SOUTH. THE CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BUT
INCLUDES HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

ALL PROGS DEVELOP A VERY INTENSE FGEN BAND OF SNOW WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SURFACE AND H850 LOW TRACK OVER
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE BLUSTERY
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINTER
RETURNS TO THE AREA.

QUIET WEATHER BUT COOL REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER.

MEDIUM RANGE PROGS SUGGESTS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT DROPS OVER
THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CLD DECK TO
DEVELOP AND DROP SWD INTO NRN WI IN THE WAKE OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV
EXITING THE ERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. QUITE A FEW CLDS ACRS THE
UPPER PENINSULA RIGHT NOW...BUT THEY ARE SOMEWHAT CELLULAR LOOKING
AND MAY TEND TO DIMINISH AFTER DUSK. ADDITIONAL CLDS COULD FORM
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TNGT. MID-LVL HEIGHTS EDGE DOWN UNTIL ABOUT
10Z...THEN BEGIN TO REBOUND. AIR TEMPERATURE/LAKE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR CLDS. WL STICK
CLOSE TO THE PREV FCST FOR N-C WI FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO PULL
BACK SOME ON THE CLDS IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE IF ADDITIONAL CLD
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT APPARENT BY LATE EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 522 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER IOWA BUT ALSO EXTENDING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES.  ARCING BAND OF CLOUDS IS GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI.  RADAR RETURNS SHOW JUST A FEW
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN WINNEBAGO AND CALUMET
COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD EXIT THESE COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WI. FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO
THE SOUTH.  AS A RESULT...BANDS OF CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND MOST LIKELY
EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...DIURNAL CU ACROSS NORTHERN
WI WILL ALSO LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING.  THIS SHOULD LEAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  DESPITE
SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GUIDANCE IS NOT THAT
COLD TONIGHT. THINK THAT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER N-C WI...SO SIDED WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE
IN THIS AREA...AND THEN DROPPED THE COLD SPOTS A COUPLE DEGREES
FURTHER.  THE EAST SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO GUIDANCE DUE TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DURING THE EVENING.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER ONTARIO.  SOME DIURNAL CU IS
ALSO LIKELY TO POP BY LATE IN THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN.  NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED HOWEVER...BUT AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...A FEW SHOWERS MAY MIGRATE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO N-C WI...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

THE PATTERN INCREASINGLY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FOR THE NEW WORK DUE
A TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE WEEK TO A
DEEPENING SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF A NORTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHILE A 100 KT JETLET
SLIDES OVER. PCPN TYPE AN ISSUE WITH MORE LIKELY SNOW FROM FAR NE
WISCONSIN TO RAIN CENTRAL AREAS...AND A MIX IN BETWEEN.
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...PCPN MAY TREND LESS BUT NOT END
AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE AREA AS UPPER FLOW
GRADUALLY TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INTENSE WEST TO EAST 850 FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE STATE WITH A LFQ REGION OF AN UPPER JET
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING. PREVIOUS MODELS WERE MIXED WITH
PCPN TYPE FROM HEAVY RAIN TO HEAVY SNOW...BUT LATEST RUNS SUGGESTS
COLDER AND MORE TOWARD A HEAVY SNOW EVENT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEN DIVERTS AFTER WITH DURATION AND TRACKING.
PROGS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE 850 LOW OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOWARD FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. SMALL PCPN CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 24 HRS. CLDS
WL GENERALLY DECR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME
LAKE CLDS...ESP IN N-C WI...LATE TNGT. THE LAKE CLDS COULD RESULT
IN SOME OCNL MVFR CIGS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE WOLF GRADUALLY RISING. HYDRO PARTNERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS FURTHER NORTH...WILL
BE MORE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS AND MORE RUNOFF. IF MORE
SNOW...A MORE DELAYED RUNOFF.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
HYDROLOGY......TDH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FOND DU LAC AND COLUMBIA
COUNTIES ARE SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AS THEY WEAKEN. THESE ARE IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER IOWA AND ALSO COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST WITH TIME TODAY.

MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI THIS AFTERNOON... RIGHT WITHIN
THAT AREA OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. MOISTURE AND
FORCING ARE SUFFICIENT UP TO 5000 FEET ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS SHOWED IN THEIR MORNING FORECASTS. WARM AIR IS WRAPPING
NORTHWARD SO THESE SHOWERS ARE RAIN. THEY MAY CHANGE OVER TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
THE COLDER AIR FROM THE SHEBOYGAN AREA WRAPS INTO SOUTHWEST WI.

BESIDES BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THESE SHOWERS... NO IMPACT IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH MO TONIGHT AND TN SUNDAY. THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST WI TO OUR SOUTH DURING
THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND LEAD TO CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND PROBABLY DOWN TO THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AND THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY.

ONE MORE VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THESE CLOUDS IF THEY DEVELOP- THEY
RAP IS SHOWING DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE NAM. TOO SMALL OF
A CHANCE TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY WILL TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE. WE
WILL STILL BE UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH... SO EXPECT CUMULUS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY LATE MORNING THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON
COULD LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AREA AS WELL.
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW SO NO SHOWERS EXPECTED.

THERE WILL BE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW US TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD BY MONDAY...EXITING EAST BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A DECENT DAY BY MOST MEASURES WITH WINDS
LIGHT AND HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S...LOW 40S BY SHEBOYGAN
AND UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET THAT POINTS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING...THEN
PIVOTS TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS DEEP AND QUITE STRONG...BUT ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A DRY TREND. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE AND IT
WILL BE A STRUGGLE FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT THIS KIND OF WAA USUALLY
FIGURES OUT A WAY TO MAKE IT HAPPEN. FOR NOW...IN THE INTEREST OF
COLLABORATION MOSTLY...WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SPRINKLES...BUT
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PLACES MEASURE.

THE LOW OUT WEST WILL HAVE A TROUGH/STATIONARY BOUNDARY...EXTENDING
EAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH ANY DEEPER FORCING
MECHANISMS WILL BE LACKING. WILL CARRY SMALL POPS ON
TUESDAY...MAINLY EAST WE SHOULD GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ENOUGH
ON TUESDAY TO SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S...THOUGH
MUCH MORE QUESTIONABLE UP TOWARD SHEBOYGAN WHERE IT WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S.

.WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A VERY INTERESTING PERIOD HERE. THERE IS A GROWING CONSENSUS
SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE KS/NEB VCNTY THEN HEADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL OR FAR SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS COPIOUS
MOISTURE WITH THIS EARLY SPRING STORM AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
IS ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL. THE GFS IS LOOKING THE WARMEST COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND THE GEM-NH. LOTS OF CLASSIC DYNAMIC FORCING HERE
WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND UPPER JET CONFIGURATION...IN
ADDITION TO DEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS. GLAD TO SEE THE 700-600MB
FRONTOGENESIS IS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SUGGESTING THE
BETTER SNOW BAND WILL STAY OUT OF THE AREA. OUR NORTHERN HALF...N
OF MKE AND MSN...COULD SEE A RAIN SHOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING...
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE. AS
TEMPS FALL AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MIX WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH...THEN SPREAD SOUTH AS IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW IN SOME
AREAS. FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...BUT DETAILS START TO GET VERY MURKY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES AT THAT RANGE. THE BIG MESSAGE IS STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES ON THE TRACK AND WX TYPE DETAILS GOING FORWARD...THEY WILL
SURELY CHANGE. IF YOU PLAN ON TRAVELING NORTH THROUGH THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY/WED NGT...YOU/LL WANT TO PREPARE FOR WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WE SHOULD BE DRYING OUT BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES WELL
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO MORE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FOND DU LAC AND PORTAGE AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING INLAND AS THEY WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BACK
EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS IS PERSISTING LONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED SO SOUTHEAST WI SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS
FEATURE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE VERY LIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO NO IMPACT FOR AVIATION.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM MADISON TO JANESVILLE AND WEST. THESE ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP AND ARE PRIMARILY RAIN DUE TO WARM AIR WRAPPING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WI AND THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THEY MAY CHANGE OVER
TO A MIX IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ENDING. ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3 TO 5SM.

CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 3 SM RANGE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING... AND THEN SCATTER OUT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
HOWEVER BROKEN LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
FROM KMKE TO KENW. THE LES CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY RANGE FROM 1.5
KFT TO 3.0 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHEAST BY
EARLY EVENING BUT WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. LIGHTER NORTH WINDS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH A LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS




FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE



 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER IOWA BUT ALSO EXTENDING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES.  ARCING BAND OF CLOUDS IS GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI.  RADAR RETURNS SHOW JUST A FEW
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN WINNEBAGO AND CALUMET
COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD EXIT THESE COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WI. FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO
THE SOUTH.  AS A RESULT...BANDS OF CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND MOST LIKELY
EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...DIURNAL CU ACROSS NORTHERN
WI WILL ALSO LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING.  THIS SHOULD LEAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  DESPITE
SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GUIDANCE IS NOT THAT
COLD TONIGHT. THINK THAT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER N-C WI...SO SIDED WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE
IN THIS AREA...AND THEN DROPPED THE COLD SPOTS A COUPLE DEGREES
FURTHER.  THE EAST SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO GUIDANCE DUE TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DURING THE EVENING.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER ONTARIO.  SOME DIURNAL CU IS
ALSO LIKELY TO POP BY LATE IN THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN.  NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED HOWEVER...BUT AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...A FEW SHOWERS MAY MIGRATE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO N-C WI...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

THE PATTERN INCREASINGLY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FOR THE NEW WORK DUE
A TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE WEEK TO A
DEEPENING SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF A NORTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHILE A 100 KT JETLET
SLIDES OVER. PCPN TYPE AN ISSUE WITH MORE LIKELY SNOW FROM FAR NE
WISCONSIN TO RAIN CENTRAL AREAS...AND A MIX IN BETWEEN.
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...PCPN MAY TREND LESS BUT NOT END
AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE AREA AS UPPER FLOW
GRADUALLY TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INTENSE WEST TO EAST 850 FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE STATE WITH A LFQ REGION OF AN UPPER JET
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING. PREVIOUS MODELS WERE MIXED WITH
PCPN TYPE FROM HEAVY RAIN TO HEAVY SNOW...BUT LATEST RUNS SUGGESTS
COLDER AND MORE TOWARD A HEAVY SNOW EVENT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEN DIVERTS AFTER WITH DURATION AND TRACKING.
PROGS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE 850 LOW OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOWARD FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. SMALL PCPN CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.  BROKEN MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA
INCLUDING MTW AND ATW.  GRB WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THESE LOWER
CIGS...BUT THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  OTHER SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER N-C WI
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING.  WILL SEE A
GENERAL CLEARING TREND THIS EVENING THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED CLOUDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY WORK INTO
RHI AT THE SAME TIME.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE WOLF GRADUALLY RISING. HYDRO PARTNERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS FURTHER NORTH...WILL
BE MORE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS AND MORE RUNOFF. IF MORE
SNOW...A MORE DELAYED RUNOFF.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......TDH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 1120 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR SHEBOYGAN HAVE SOME SUBSTANCE TO THEM.
VISIBILITY AT SBM AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 3/4 MILE FOR A TIME. EXPECT
THESE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE ARE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IOWA AND
ALSO COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK LAKE-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST WITH TIME TODAY.

MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI THIS AFTERNOON... RIGHT WITHIN
THAT AREA OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT UP TO 5000 FEET ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SCENARIO. INCREASED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

BESIDES BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THESE SHOWERS... NO IMPACT IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SHEBOYGAN AREA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND AS
THEY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MKE AND UES COULD SEE A FEW
FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE BUT EXPECT THE VISIBILITY-REDUCING SNOW
TO REMAIN TO THEIR NORTH.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM MADISON TO JANESVILLE AND WEST. THESE WILL BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 2 TO 3 SM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION.

CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 3 SM RANGE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING... AND THEN SCATTER OUT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
HOWEVER BROKEN LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
FROM KMKE TO KENW. THE LES CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY RANGE FROM 1.5
KFT TO 3.0 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...

SCATTERED MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN
WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS OF
AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING BUT WAVES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. LIGHTER NORTH
WINDS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LOW OVER NW WI WILL TRACK TO S IA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE
VORT LOBE CURRENTLY EXTENDING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI WILL ROTATE WWD
AWAY FROM WI. AT THE SFC..THE WEAK LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH FROM NE
IA EXTENDING TO THE SE WILL SHIFT SWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI SHOULD
WEAKEN AND SHIFT WWD THIS MORNING GIVEN THE MOVEMENT AWAY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAKER INVERTED TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WWD ACROSS LAKE MI WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE LAKE. THUS ISOLD TO SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE WWD
ACROSS SRN WI THIS MORNING. SMALL CHANCES OF PCPN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP. DRIER AIR ON
NELY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER FAR ERN WI. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD WWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A
NELY FETCH AND LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCES OF 8-9C MAY CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER FAR SE WI THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
WITH SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE. THE CLOUDS AND ENELY WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY WHILE TEMPS IN THE 20S TNT ARE FORECAST TNT.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

SURFACE TO 250MB RIDGING WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED/STACKED LOW. THE MAIN QUESTION OVER THIS
PERIOD WILL BE WITH CLOUD COVER AND HOW THAT MAY AFFECT
TEMPERATURES. THE 19.00Z NAM/GFS BOTH HAVE SOME HIGHER RH IN BOTH
THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-300MB LAYER THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS A JET STREAK PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING
EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THIS CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HOW FAR TEMPERATURES DROP
THAT MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED THEM UP A LITTLE BIT.

TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL LOOK LIKE AS THIS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT
COMES IN ON TUESDAY THOUGH THAT MAINLY IS DUE TO THE 19.00Z GFS
WHICH PAINTS A BAND OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...MUCH DEPENDS ON WHEN THE
NEXT SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. EACH LONG TERM MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT
SOLUTION WITH WHERE TO TRACK THIS LOW OVER THIS PERIOD. THE 19.00Z
ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST WITH THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM AS IT COMES THROUGH
ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS MORE DELAYED WITH BRINGING THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...GETS INTO THE WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE 4-8C RANGE.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A COUPLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL
MAINTAIN STRATUS CLOUDS AND ISOLD TO SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. CIGS WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM 1-3 KFT. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PCPN. CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT TNT AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES HOWEVER BROKEN LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM KMKE TO KENW. THE LES CLOUDS WILL ALSO
LIKELY RANGE FROM 1.5 KFT TO 3.0 KFT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HALBACH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1147 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.UPDATE...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

PERSISTENT BAND OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. RIDGE TOP LOCATIONS
HAVE RECEIVED 1 TO AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW. THE RAIN HAS JUST
SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW AT KLSE. PLAN ON STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE NAM INCREASES THE FRONTOGENESIS REGION BACK UP AGAIN
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS SO SEEING NO REASON FOR THE SNOW TO
EASE UP BEFORE 2 AM. ROADS SURFACES ARE WARM ENOUGH IN MANY
LOCATIONS THAT THE SNOW IS HAVING TROUBLE STICKING. THAT WILL
CHANGE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

AT 3 PM...A BAND OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DODGE CENTER MINNESOTA /WHICH
IS REPORTING SNOW/...WE ARE SEEING MAINLY REPORTS OF RAIN OUT OF
THESE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A BAND OF WEAK
900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THIS BAND EXTENDS WEST TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE COOLS TO LESS THAN 1500 FEET.

WHILE THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE 800 TO
700 MB WEAKENS AND MOVES WEST. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE 900 TO 850
MB LAPSE RATES WEAKEN AND THAT THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL DECREASE.
BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR COBB DATA PRODUCE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AT
KRST. THIS MAINLY DUE TO THIS MODEL PRODUCING SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS OF 20-30 TO 1 WHICH SEEMS VERY UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING THE
MOISTURE AND THE DEPTH OF THE LIFT. IN ADDITION...GROUND
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE 2-INCH
SOIL DEPTH TEMPERATURE AT OUR OFFICE IS CURRENTLY 38F...SO THIS
WILL LIKELY HELP TO CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOW UNLESS THE SNOW
RATES ARE HIGH. AS RESULT...PREFER THE NAM AND GFS COBB DATA WHICH
PRODUCE LITTLE...IF ANY SNOW. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS HAVE UP TO 1
INCH NEAR INTERSTATE 35 WHICH SEEMS REALISTIC SINCE IT IS CLOSER
TO THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT IS LOCATED NEAR THE PIVOT POINT OF THE
800 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS.

FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE. AS A
RESULT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP
UNTIL IT REACHES NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. IN OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT THIS
TIME LOOK INITIALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET AND
THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...THE AREA WILL ENTER THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 4C IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO 12C
IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND AND IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM THE PLAINS WILL CONFINE ANY
PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A
LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOOK WARM INITIALLY FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX AND SNOW. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND BY THIS TIME.
THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF...SO IT WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD VERY LITTLE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER
STRATUS AND SNOW SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO AROUND 500 FT AT
KRST AND TO AROUND 900 AT KLSE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
AFTER 10Z AND ESPECIALLY  AFTER 14Z AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENTUALLY TO VFR BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE STRATUS
LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT. WINDS WON/T BE MUCH OF A CONCERN
TONIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 7 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE BLACK RIVER IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WATER
LEVELS ARE FALLING AT BLACK RIVER FALLS...BUT THE CREST HAS NOT
QUITE REACHED GALESVILLE YET. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF WATER WERE
MOVING THROUGH THE WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN AS WELL. THE YELLOW RIVER
AT NECEDAH WAS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND A CREST NEAR MAJOR LEVEL IS
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER 44000 CFS OUT OF
CASTLE ROCK DAM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
MINOR FLOODING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO MUSCODA THIS WEEKEND. AND AS THE
HIGH WATER ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI MEETS UP WITH THIS WISCONSIN RIVER
VOLUME...EXPECT MINOR FLOODING TO BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR
MCGREGOR AND GUTTENBERG EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. FURTHER UPSTREAM ON
THE MIGHTY MISSISSIPPI...INFLOW FROM THE CHIPPEWA RIVER WILL HELP
WABASHA TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE... AND SOME MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED
THERE. THANKFULLY...NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...MW





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 226 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
LOW DEPARTS. A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AND MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NOT GOING TO MAKE CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES AND SNOW TOTALS JUST
YET. LATEST FEW RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP AS WELL AS THE 00Z RGEM WOULD
SUGGEST THAT WE WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NASSAU
AND NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...AND SHORT OF ALL WARNING CRITERIA. 00Z
NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE MORE QPF...AND BARELY SUPPORT WARNING
CRITERIA WHERE WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY POSTED. LOOKING AT RADAR
AND FORECAST FRONTOGENESIS FROM SOME OF THE MODELS...THINKING IS
THAT WE CAN STILL GET ENHANCED SNOW/BANDING OVER EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS THAT NASSAU AND NEW
HAVEN COUNTIES MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED FROM THE ADVISORY WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE...AND ALL AREAS NORTH AND WEST FROM THESE COUNTIES
END UP WITH LESS THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WHICH ISN`T ALL THAT
MUCH ANYWAY.

PRECIP ENDS MONDAY MORNING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE W/NW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...A BLEND OF ECS/MET/6Z MAV GUIDANCE...NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800-775 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...WHICH YIELDS HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
NW FLOW SETS UP ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAKENING RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND NO
SHORTWAVES TO TRIGGER ANY CLOUDS...SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED...SO
WINDS WILL STAY UP...LIMITING AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/6Z MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

A WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND HEAD EAST
PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW THERE IS
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE
TIMING AND EXACT LOCATIONS ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS.

THEREAFTER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AS THE
12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

GENERALLY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TRICKY ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. AS AN EXAMPLE...THE 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE HAS A RANGE FROM 39 TO 65 FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KJFK ON
THURSDAY WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION OF 7...DENOTING A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODEL. IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
THE AREA IT WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE...AND IF IT REMAINS TO THE
NORTH...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE. OTHER THAN
THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE AT LEAST ON WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WE WILL BE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOVING
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
10Z TO 13Z AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY
TERMINALS AND EAST. WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE NEW YORK CITY
TERMINALS VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN
VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR. THE SNOW ENDS WEST OF NEW YORK CITY 09Z
TO 10Z. ONCE THE SNOW ENDS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR.

SNOWFALL TOTALS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...

KGON...3-4 INCHES.
KISP...AROUND 3 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KBDR...1-2 INCHES.
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...LESS THAN AN 1 INCH.
KSWF...LITTLE TO NONE.

NORTHERLY WINDS BACK TO NORTH/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS STRONGER
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTY NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. A FEW 30 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS AND GUSTS.
.TUESDAY...VFR. INCREASING W/SW WINDS G20-30KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN ATTM. NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH
A CHANCE FOR THE ERN SOUND AND BAYS TO SEE A BRIEF PT OF 25-KT
GUSTS. THE MORE LIKELY PD OF WIDESPREAD SCA CONDS ON ALL WATERS
WILL COME FROM MID AFTERNOON ON MON INTO MON NIGHT AS WINDS BACK
NW AND INCREASE. GUSTS ON THE OCEAN COULD PEAK AT 35 KT MON
EVENING. IF EXPECTED TIME FRAME OF THESE GUSTS INCREASES WITH
LATER FCSTS A GALE WATCH OR WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

SCA ENDS ON THE WRN SOUND...SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND NY HARBOR BY
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT...BUT STRONGER WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN
AND FARTHER E INTO MON NIGHT. LINGERING 5-FT OCEAN SEAS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO MON MORNING.

WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
WIND GUSTS APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 25 KT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND PECONIC AND GARDINER`S BAY
AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

WAVES WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH TUESDAY...WITH THE OCEAN ZONES
COMING DOWN BELOW 5 FT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WAVES BUILD
TO 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OCEAN AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY
NIGHT.  WAVES DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...WAVES BUILD AGAIN TO
5 FT OR HIGHER ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
LESS THAN .1 INCHES WEST OF NYC METRO TO AROUND .8 INCHES OVER
THE EASTERN S FORK OF LONG ISLAND. EVEN WITH FAIRLY RAPID SNOW
MELT ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...NO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ008-
     012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ006-007-010-011.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-
     081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ078-080-177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 149 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
LOW DEPARTS. A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AND MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NOT GOING TO MAKE CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES AND SNOW TOTALS JUST
YET. LATEST FEW RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP AS WELL AS THE 00Z RGEM WOULD
SUGGEST THAT WE WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NASSAU
AND NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...AND SHORT OF ALL WARNING CRITERIA. 00Z
NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE MORE QPF...AND BARELY SUPPORT WARNING
CRITERIA WHERE WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY POSTED. LOOKING AT RADAR
AND FORECAST FRONTOGENESIS FROM SOME OF THE MODELS...THINKING IS
THAT WE CAN STILL GET ENHANCED SNOW/BANDING OVER EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS THAT NASSAU AND NEW
HAVEN COUNTIES MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED FROM THE ADVISORY WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE...AND ALL AREAS NORTH AND WEST FROM THESE COUNTIES
END UP WITH LESS THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WHICH ISN`T ALL THAT
MUCH ANYWAY.

PRECIP ENDS MONDAY MORNING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE W/NW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...A BLEND OF ECS/MET/6Z MAV GUIDANCE...NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800-775 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...WHICH YIELDS HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
NW FLOW SETS UP ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAKENING RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND NO
SHORTWAVES TO TRIGGER ANY CLOUDS...SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED...SO
WINDS WILL STAY UP...LIMITING AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/6Z MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

A WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND HEAD EAST
PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW THERE IS
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE
TIMING AND EXACT LOCATIONS ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS.

THEREAFTER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AS THE
12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

GENERALLY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TRICKY ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. AS AN EXAMPLE...THE 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE HAS A RANGE FROM 39 TO 65 FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KJFK ON
THURSDAY WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION OF 7...DENOTING A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODEL. IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
THE AREA IT WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE...AND IF IT REMAINS TO THE
NORTH...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE. OTHER THAN
THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE AT LEAST ON WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WE WILL BE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOVING
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
10Z TO 13Z AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY
TERMINALS AND EAST. WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE NEW YORK CITY
TERMINALS VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN
VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR. THE SNOW ENDS WEST OF NEW YORK CITY 09Z
TO 10Z. ONCE THE SNOW ENDS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR.

SNOWFALL TOTALS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...

KGON...6-7 INCHES.
KISP...4-5 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KBDR...1-3 INCHES.
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...AROUND 1 INCH.
KSWF...LITTLE TO NONE.

NORTHERLY WINDS BACK TO NORTH/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS STRONGER
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTY NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. A FEW 30 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS AND GUSTS.
.TUESDAY...VFR. INCREASING W/SW WINDS G20-30KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN ATTM. NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH
A CHANCE FOR THE ERN SOUND AND BAYS TO SEE A BRIEF PT OF 25-KT
GUSTS. THE MORE LIKELY PD OF WIDESPREAD SCA CONDS ON ALL WATERS
WILL COME FROM MID AFTERNOON ON MON INTO MON NIGHT AS WINDS BACK
NW AND INCREASE. GUSTS ON THE OCEAN COULD PEAK AT 35 KT MON
EVENING. IF EXPECTED TIME FRAME OF THESE GUSTS INCREASES WITH
LATER FCSTS A GALE WATCH OR WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

SCA ENDS ON THE WRN SOUND...SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND NY HARBOR BY
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT...BUT STRONGER WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN
AND FARTHER E INTO MON NIGHT. LINGERING 5-FT OCEAN SEAS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO MON MORNING.

WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
WIND GUSTS APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 25 KT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND PECONIC AND GARDINER`S BAY
AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

WAVES WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH TUESDAY...WITH THE OCEAN ZONES
COMING DOWN BELOW 5 FT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WAVES BUILD
TO 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OCEAN AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY
NIGHT.  WAVES DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...WAVES BUILD AGAIN TO
5 FT OR HIGHER ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
LESS THAN .1 INCHES WEST OF NYC METRO TO AROUND .8 INCHES OVER
THE EASTERN S FORK OF LONG ISLAND. EVEN WITH FAIRLY RAPID SNOW
MELT ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...NO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ008-
     012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ006-007-010-011.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-
     081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ078-080-177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JP



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 1240 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
LOW DEPARTS. A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AND MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NOT GOING TO MAKE CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES AND SNOW TOTALS JUST
YET. LATEST FEW RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP AS WELL AS THE 00Z RGEM WOULD
SUGGEST THAT WE WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NASSAU
AND NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...AND SHORT OF ALL WARNING CRITERIA. 00Z
NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE MORE QPF...AND BARELY SUPPORT WARNING
CRITERIA WHERE WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY POSTED. LOOKING AT RADAR
AND FORECAST FRONTOGENESIS FROM SOME OF THE MODELS...THINKING IS
THAT WE CAN STILL GET ENHANCED SNOW/BANDING OVER EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS THAT NASSAU AND NEW
HAVEN COUNTIES MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED FROM THE ADVISORY WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE...AND ALL AREAS NORTH AND WEST FROM THESE COUNTIES
END UP WITH LESS THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WHICH ISN`T ALL THAT
MUCH ANYWAY.

PRECIP ENDS MONDAY MORNING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE W/NW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...A BLEND OF ECS/MET/6Z MAV GUIDANCE...NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800-775 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...WHICH YIELDS HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
NW FLOW SETS UP ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAKENING RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND NO
SHORTWAVES TO TRIGGER ANY CLOUDS...SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED...SO
WINDS WILL STAY UP...LIMITING AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/6Z MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

A WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND HEAD EAST
PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW THERE IS
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE
TIMING AND EXACT LOCATIONS ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS.

THEREAFTER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AS THE
12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

GENERALLY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TRICKY ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. AS AN EXAMPLE...THE 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE HAS A RANGE FROM 39 TO 65 FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KJFK ON
THURSDAY WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION OF 7...DENOTING A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODEL. IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
THE AREA IT WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE...AND IF IT REMAINS TO THE
NORTH...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE. OTHER THAN
THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE AT LEAST ON WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WE WILL BE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

CEILINGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW...MAINLY NYC EAST. FOR TERMINALS WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND POSSIBLY KHPN...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS LOW DUE TO MAIN AREA OF SNOW REMAINING EAST OF THOSE
TERMINALS.

CURRENTLY...THE FOLLOWING TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE TAF SITES
ARE EXPECTED:

KGON...6-8 INCHES.
KISP...3-6 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KBDR...1-3 INCHES.
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...1-2 INCHES.
KSWF...1 INCH OR LESS.

BY 10-13Z...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH KGON
HANGING ON TO LOWER CONDITIONS A BIT LONGER.

WINDS QUICKLY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...THEN BACK
FURTHER TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS STRONGER FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTY NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. A FEW 30 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.TUESDAY...VFR. INCREASING W/SW WINDS G20-30KT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
.THURSDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN ATTM. NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH
A CHANCE FOR THE ERN SOUND AND BAYS TO SEE A BRIEF PT OF 25-KT
GUSTS. THE MORE LIKELY PD OF WIDESPREAD SCA CONDS ON ALL WATERS
WILL COME FROM MID AFTERNOON ON MON INTO MON NIGHT AS WINDS BACK
NW AND INCREASE. GUSTS ON THE OCEAN COULD PEAK AT 35 KT MON
EVENING. IF EXPECTED TIME FRAME OF THESE GUSTS INCREASES WITH
LATER FCSTS A GALE WATCH OR WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

SCA ENDS ON THE WRN SOUND...SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND NY HARBOR BY
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT...BUT STRONGER WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN
AND FARTHER E INTO MON NIGHT. LINGERING 5-FT OCEAN SEAS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO MON MORNING.

WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
WIND GUSTS APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 25 KT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND PECONIC AND GARDINER`S BAY
AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

WAVES WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH TUESDAY...WITH THE OCEAN ZONES
COMING DOWN BELOW 5 FT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WAVES BUILD
TO 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OCEAN AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY
NIGHT.  WAVES DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...WAVES BUILD AGAIN TO
5 FT OR HIGHER ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
LESS THAN .1 INCHES WEST OF NYC METRO TO AROUND .8 INCHES OVER
THE EASTERN S FORK OF LONG ISLAND. EVEN WITH FAIRLY RAPID SNOW
MELT ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...NO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ008-
     012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ006-007-010-011.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-
     081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ078-080-177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/PW



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 124 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE UPSTATE WILL CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LATEST CAE RADAR INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. LATEST SPC HRRR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SINCE MUCH OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHOULD
BE NORTH OF CAE. THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND
FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AS A BROAD RIDGE PUSHES EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
STATES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...THE COOLER
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SHOWING A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PROMOTING
DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS STILL SHOW
DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BEING FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE. DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO BRING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO
POPS GIVEN MODEL DISCREPANCIES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEAR CAE/CUB/OGB TERMINALS THROUGH 07Z.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS SIGNIFICANTLY. SHOWERS VERY LIGHT
AND MAINLY NEAR CAE/CUB. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN
STRATO- CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5000 FT. TROUGH MOVING EAST OF AREA
AROUND 10Z WITH CLEARING BEHIND SYSTEM. SKY CLEAR AFTER 12Z
THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AGS/DNL WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MODERATELY
TIGHT...GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 12Z THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

 251 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

07Z water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low over the
northeastern Pacific with an upper level ridge downstream from the
desert southwest through the northern Rockies. This leaves northwest
flow over the central plains this morning. At the surface, a ridge
of high pressure was centered over east TX and a trough of low
pressure was gradually deepening across the northern high plains.

The forecast for today and tonight calls for dry weather to continue
as the northwest flow aloft does not appear to have any significant
waves within it. Additionally the surface ridge along the TX gulf
coast looks to slow down any low level moisture return as onshore
flow has yet to develop. Although the strengthening low pressure
system over the northern high plains will cause the pressure
gradient to become quite strong today causing winds to gust up to
35 MPH. It is not out of the question that the wind speeds could
flirt with wind advisory criteria this afternoon. But the pressure
gradient appears to fall just shy of what typically occurs when we
have wind advisory days. So will not issue one at this time but the
day shift will want to monitor trends today. Models mix the boundary
layer to around 875MB. With some warm air advection this should
cause highs to be in the 60s. With good insolation expected, went
with mid 60s to around 70 for highs today. Tonight`s temps should be
much more mild with the pressure gradient keeping the boundary layer
mixed. So lows are expected to be in the mid 40s with only some high
cirrus passing overhead.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

Upper trough over the Great Basin begins to deepen on Tuesday. In
turn southwesterly winds stronger upstream of the sfc low progged to
be centered over northwest KS by 00Z Wednesday. Portions of east
central KS may need a Wind Advisory as sustained speeds average in
the 25 to 30 mph with gusts in upwards of 40 mph. In addition to the
dry air mass in place, fire weather concerns remain for the
afternoon hours. Please see Fire Weather Discussion for more
information. Other main story for Tuesday is the warmth as h85 temps
may reach the lower 20C range, resulting in widespread lower 80s for
much of the area. As the cold front approaches north central Kansas
late afternoon Wednesday, the tightening pressure gradient and
compressional warming ahead of the boundary will likely see another
very warm afternoon as gusty southerly winds maximize at 20 to 30
mph sustained. Highs behind the front over north central KS are in
the lower 60s while low to upper 70s are expected elsewhere.
After the boundary passes through, temps quickly fall into the lower
30s Thursday morning. Thursdays readings in the upper 40s is the
only cool day for the week before southerly return flow recovers
highs into the 60s for the weekend. Lows are generally in the middle
to upper 30s.

Precip chances increase beginning Wednesday for areas north of
Interstate 70 as convergence enhances along the cold front. Track of
the sfc and parent low still varies between guidance with a decent
spread leading to lesser confidence in precipitation occurring,
especially south of Interstate 70. Northern areas near the Nebraska
border have consistently seen the better lift with the upper low
focusing towards Nebraska so have increased pops to likely Wednesday
evening into Thursday as the upper low phases as it exits northeast.
QPF amounts are still variable this far out between a tenth to half
of an inch, locally higher. Main concern is the presence of weak
elevated instability during the day Wednesday lending to a mention
of isolated thunder. As the system organizes Wednesday evening,
better chances for thunder shift further east into MO. Also noted
the colder air trending a bit faster than yesterday, dropping
profilers below freezing over north central KS by midnight. It
appears rain mixed snow is possible for the entire CWA by sunrise
Thursday with a transition to snow over north central KS. Amounts if
any would be minor or none due to warm ground temps. Next system
impacts the CWA Saturday with rain being the primary precip type.
Latest GFS and ECMWF still vary the speed and timing of the system
so have maintained low pops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

RAP and NAM forecast soundings show a strong nocturnal inversion
has set up and seen in surface obs by the light or calm winds.
Additionally profiler data is showing the low level jet beginning
to strengthen. With forecast soundings maintaining the inversion
until mid morning, have updated the forecast to include LLWS until
the boundary layer begins to mix out.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

The warm and windy conditions today are expected to lead to extreme
fire danger today and will upgrade the watch to a red flag warning.
The winds appear to obviously meet the criteria for a warning. The
main concern, as is usually the case, is the humidity. Since there
does not appear to be a strong surge of low level moisture from the
gulf yet, have generally gone with the dryer RAP and GFS solutions
for dewpoint temps. This gives me minimum RH values between 20 and
25 percent. While not exactly meeting criteria, feel like this is
close enough given our tendency to not get the RH values low enough.
Will keep the warning going into this evening as the southwesterly
winds look to remain strong past sunset. The thinking is this should
give the boundary layer RH a little more time to recover to around
40 percent before ending the warning.

On Tuesday, deep mixing within the boundary layer up to 700 mb is
possible, mixing RH values into the lower to middle 20s for most
of northeast Kansas. Winds are expected to be at 25 to 30 mph
sustained over east central KS through early evening. Confidence
is higher in the drier air being realized in addition to the
strong winds. Have decided to continue with the Fire Weather
Watch, likely needing a warning later today.

Wednesday also shows elevated fire concerns with the cold front and
the drier airmass entering north central Kansas by late afternoon.
Depending on where the cold front is positioned by late afternoon,
areas along and ahead of it show deeper mixing with southerly winds
at 25 to 30 mph sustained. RH values are forecast in the lower 20s
for areas along the Flint Hills and points eastward. Additional fire
headlines are likely needed in future forecasts.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters/Bowen




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 411 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SLACKENING TO NEAR CALM AND AN INVERSION
SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN VALLEYS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND SOME
CAA...ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE
UPPER 20S FOR PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FIVE
DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL RATHER DRY...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...THOUGH
SOME UPPER TEENS ARE NOTED IN THE FAR EAST AND ON THE RIDGES...
WHILE SOME LOW 30S ARE BEING REPORTED CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE
BORDER. THE DRIER AIR MAY BE SLOWING THE FROST FORMATION FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA...BUT AT SME THERE IS ACTUALLY ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
TOUCH OF FOG ATTM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH EXITING TO THE
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. THE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT WITH TIME INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE ZONAL DURING THE DAY WHILE THE BULK
OF ANY ENERGY STAYS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...THE FLOW OVER KENTUCKY WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHWEST TACK AND
EVEN SOME SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. GIVEN THE
HIGH LEVEL OF MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM FOR WX SPECIFICS...WHERE THERE
ARE ANY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY...AND LIKELY FROSTY...
START TO THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ENOUGH SUN WILL BE SEEN TO HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. ANOTHER NIGHT
OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SET UP A PRETTY GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FROST IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. MORE SUNSHINE LATER THAT DAY...ALONG WITH
WINDS PICKING UP SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LIKELY LEADING TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR CONCERNS...MORE DETAILS ON THIS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER. HAVE
ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO SIGNIFICANTLY ADJUST FOR TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...
ZEROED THEM OUT IN LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW REGIME. THAT SAID A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PLACED TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC AND WE WILL RESIDE IN THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE HIGH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WELL ESTABLISHED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...AND 40 TO 50 KNOT JET AT THE 850MB
LEVEL. THIS AS WE ARE TRAPPED BETWEEN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEREFORE OVERALL GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL COMBINE WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

NOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAIN...THAT WILL IN FACT BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR
THE REGION LATE WEEK. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. NOW FOR THE GUIDANCE THERE REMAINS AT LEAST
SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/CLOSED LOW AND THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING WITH THE
SURFACE FEATURES. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO
EVEN THE PAST 3 PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER
BUT STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUN. THE WPC FOLKS ARE
NOT SOLD ON THE OPERATIONAL AND STUCK WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS TO
LESSEN THE RUN TO RUN CHANGES. THEREFORE WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH SHOULD DO A SIMILAR JOB. RIGHT NOW STILL KEEP
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND LESSEN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. NOW THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON QPF IN
RELATION TO BEING SPLIT BY THE UPPER FORCING GOING NORTH AND THE
OVERALL BETTER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. RIGHT NOW MODEL BLENDS WOULD
SUGGEST WE SEE WIDESPREAD HALF A INCH OR MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THIS WOULD FINALLY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WHILE ONLY
MARGINAL AT BEST INSTABILITY IS SEEN WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SLIGHT
THUNDER...BUT RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS COULD CONTAIN FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS
GIVEN THE 50 TO 60 KNOT 850 MB JET THEY COULD PARTIALLY MIX DOWN.

AFTER THIS SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS EAST ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD
BE DRY LATER IN THE DAY. NOW FOR THE WEEKEND MORE CONVOLUTED
GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES EVIDENT. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP SATURDAY
DRY...THIS AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP IT DRY. NOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DO STICK WITH THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH DOES INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS. THE 00Z
GFS AND THE ENSEMBLE HAVE BEEN MOST ROBUST WITH BRINGING
OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THEREFORE WILL NOT BRING POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN THE BLEND. THIS WILL SYSTEM BE AIDED BY A
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SWINGS EAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. NOW THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
SETUP...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY AND CONSISTENCY WITH
OTHER OFFICES WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU...GENERALLY IN THE 4-6K FEET AGL
RANGE...WILL GRADUALLY THIN TONIGHT. LOOK FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS IN
A SIMILAR RANGE TO RETURN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

GIVEN THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VERY LOW AFTERNOON/EVENING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON TUESDAY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND HIGHER WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CLOSE TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH RIGHT NOW...BUT WE MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER ONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IF MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THESE CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING SOME FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW RH VALUES WILL LEAD
TO A CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
THEN LOOKS TO BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
FIRE WEATHER...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 345 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SLACKENING TO NEAR CALM AND AN INVERSION
SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN VALLEYS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND SOME
CAA...ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE
UPPER 20S FOR PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FIVE
DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL RATHER DRY...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...THOUGH
SOME UPPER TEENS ARE NOTED IN THE FAR EAST AND ON THE RIDGES...
WHILE SOME LOW 30S ARE BEING REPORTED CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE
BORDER. THE DRIER AIR MAY BE SLOWING THE FROST FORMATION FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA...BUT AT SME THERE IS ACTUALLY ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
TOUCH OF FOG ATTM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH EXITING TO THE
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. THE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT WITH TIME INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE ZONAL DURING THE DAY WHILE THE BULK
OF ANY ENERGY STAYS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...THE FLOW OVER KENTUCKY WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHWEST TACK AND
EVEN SOME SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. GIVEN THE
HIGH LEVEL OF MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM FOR WX SPECIFICS...WHERE THERE
ARE ANY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY...AND LIKELY FROSTY...
START TO THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ENOUGH SUN WILL BE SEEN TO HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. ANOTHER NIGHT
OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SET UP A PRETTY GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FROST IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. MORE SUNSHINE LATER THAT DAY...ALONG WITH
WINDS PICKING UP SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LIKELY LEADING TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR CONCERNS...MORE DETAILS ON THIS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER. HAVE
ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO SIGNIFICANTLY ADJUST FOR TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...
ZEROED THEM OUT IN LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST BY TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND A DEVELOP
LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WINDS AND MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS AS HIGHS SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S ON
TUESDAY...AND NEAR 70 BY WEDNESDAY. THE WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WE
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
WESTERN US AND PUSH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS
ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM...SO RAIN CHANCES
HAVE CONTINUED TO GO UP WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THIS SYSTEM
IS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND WE SHOULD DRY OUT AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY
OVER EASTER WEEKEND...SETTING UP A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON THIS IDEA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU...GENERALLY IN THE 4-6K FEET AGL
RANGE...WILL GRADUALLY THIN TONIGHT. LOOK FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS IN
A SIMILAR RANGE TO RETURN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

GIVEN THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VERY LOW AFTERNOON/EVENING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON TUESDAY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND HIGHER WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CLOSE TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH RIGHT NOW...BUT WE MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER ONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IF MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THESE CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING SOME FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW RH VALUES WILL LEAD
TO A CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
THEN LOOKS TO BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
FIRE WEATHER...KAS/GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 414 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES.
PASSING SHRTWV/ATTENDANT COLD FROPA IS TRIGGERING SOME SCT SN
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL DRYNESS OF
THE AIRMASS PER LOCAL 00Z RAOBS AND ONLY SCT CLDS PER STLT IMAGERY
IS RESTRICTING THE COVERAGE OF THE SN SHOWERS ALONG THE FNT. DESPITE
SOME CHILLY AIR UPSTREAM IN NW ONTARIO...WHERE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS -17C
AT YPL...THAT IS FOLLOWING THE FROPA...STLT IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY SCT
LK EFFECT CLDS OVER LK SUP WITH VERY DRY AIR NOTED ON THE 00Z YPL
RAOB. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...THERE IS A SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE
NRN ROCKIES ON THE TOP OF THE WRN RDG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LES CHCS THIS MRNG AND
THEN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WAA SN TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.

TDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME COLD AIR WL BE STREAMING ACRS MAINLY THE E HALF
OF LK SUP...H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO FALL NO LOWER THAN ABOUT -13 TO
-14C OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS...
MARGINAL H85 TEMPS...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV AND WEAK LLVL CNVGC FCSDT...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLD-SCT SN
SHOWERS OVER THE E THIS MRNG. OPTED TO REMOVE ALL POPS OVER THE FAR
W GIVEN EVEN WEAKER COOLING FCST THERE. ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG
AXIS AND DIURNAL HEATING WL END ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE E HALF.
DESPITE THE INFLUX OF RATHER DRY LLVL AIR...EXPECT INCRSG MID/HI
CLDS RELATED TO WAA AHEAD OF FALLING MSLP IN THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF
SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.

TNGT...MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A BAND
OF SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-290K SFCS /ABOUT
H85-675/ SETTING UP OVER THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF A WARM FNT ORIENTED
IN THE UPR MIDWEST OUT AHEAD OF A LO PRES THAT IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR
MINNEAPOLIS BY 12Z TUE. COMBINATION OF THIS WAA/ACCOMPANYING DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/BAND OF MID LVL FGEN/SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF
100KT H3 JET MAX STREAKING THRU THE UPR MIDWEST WL CAUSE AN AREA OF
SN TO DVLP W-E. AXIS OF SHARPEST FCST FGEN APPEARS TO FAVOR THE
NCENTRAL CWA FOR THE HEAVIER SN. CONCERNS INCLUDE HOW QUICKLY LLVL
DRY AIR CAN BE OVERCOME AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER DEEP LYR FORCING TO
THE S. WITH THE LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...TENDED TO KEEP POPS/QPF A
BIT LOWER IN THE EVNG. FCST H7-75 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ARND 2.5G/KG
WOULD FAVOR 2-3 INCHES OF SN IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD WHEN THE SHARPER
FORCING/UVV ARE FCST...BUT TENDED CLOSER TO ABOUT 2 INCHES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF THE LLVL DRY AIR AND EXPECTED SN/WATER
RATIOS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 15:1. FCST THERMAL FIELDS ALSO INDICATE
SOME RA COULD MIX WITH THE SN OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL...WHERE PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTEST FARTHER FM THE AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE OVER THE COMING WEEK...WITH A BAND OF
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEARING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A SWATH OF SNOW TIED TO A LAYER OF LOW-
LEVEL FGEN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CWA AWAY
FROM THE WI BORDER IN THE MORNING. SEE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR
INFORMATION REGARDING THE ONSET OF THIS SNOW. AN EVENT TOTAL OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO E
TO NE WIND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
SNOWFALL...TRAVEL FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE SOMEWHAT
HAZARDOUS. WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIX WITH RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT GIVEN EFFECTS FROM DYNAMIC
COOLING...HAVE FAVORED A SCENARIO WITH MORE OF A MIX THAN A COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AWAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. THERE...THE
SNOW MAY TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AS DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS
AND CLOUD LAYER MIN TEMPS RISE TO -6 TO -8C. LOWERING TEMPS AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECTING IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL TRANSITION THE PRECIP BACK TO FLURRIES FOR THE
IMMEDIATE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON THE EVOLUTION OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CANADIAN GEM...ECMWF..AND EVEN SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BRING A SLOWER-MOVING AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS/NAM REMAIN FASTER WITH A MORE NEUTRAL
TILT. THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE MUDDLED AS THE PHASING OF A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ENHANCES THE SYSTEM. ALL SOLUTIONS BRING AT
LEAST SOME SNOW TO PORTIONS OF UPPER MI...BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING...INTENSITY...AND NW EXTENT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE BETTER
MODEL CLUSTERING (CANADIAN/ECMWF) WHILE KEEPING IN MIND THAT A NW
SHIFT IN LINE WITH THE GFS/NAM CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN ALMOST NO AGREEMENT BY
THIS POINT OTHER THAN WITH THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS/CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING A ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIP SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH THE GFS ONCE AGAIN FAVORING THE
QUICKER SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHSN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
THIS MRNG WILL TAPER OFF OR END BY MIDDAY MONDAY. DRY AIR AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN LOW END
VFR CIGS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...SO LEFT PRECIP OUT OF TAFS. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING SOME
LOWERING OF CLOUD CIGS...PERHAPS TO HIGH END MVFR BY LATE
EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND LOWERING OF CIGS WILL OCCUR AFT 06Z TUE WHEN DEEP LAYER
MOISTENING OCCURS WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

WITH A HI PRES RIDGE MOVING OVER THE UPPER LAKES TODAY...EXPECT
DIMINISHING WINDS UNDER 15-20 KTS. UNDER A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND LO PRES CENTERS RUNNING ALONG A LO
PRES TROUGH IN THE LOWER LAKES...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL PREVAIL
TUE THROUGH THU. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN WITH A HI PRES RIDGE ON
FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 412 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES.
PASSING SHRTWV/ATTENDANT COLD FROPA IS TRIGGERING SOME SCT SN
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL DRYNESS OF
THE AIRMASS PER LOCAL 00Z RAOBS AND ONLY SCT CLDS PER STLT IMAGERY
IS RESTRICTING THE COVERAGE OF THE SN SHOWERS ALONG THE FNT. DESPITE
SOME CHILLY AIR UPSTREAM IN NW ONTARIO...WHERE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS -17C
AT YPL...THAT IS FOLLOWING THE FROPA...STLT IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY SCT
LK EFFECT CLDS OVER LK SUP WITH VERY DRY AIR NOTED ON THE 00Z YPL
RAOB. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...THERE IS A SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE
NRN ROCKIES ON THE TOP OF THE WRN RDG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LES CHCS THIS MRNG AND
THEN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WAA SN TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.

TDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME COLD AIR WL BE STREAMING ACRS MAINLY THE E HALF
OF LK SUP...H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO FALL NO LOWER THAN ABOUT -13 TO
-14C OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS...
MARGINAL H85 TEMPS...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV AND WEAK LLVL CNVGC FCSDT...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLD-SCT SN
SHOWERS OVER THE E THIS MRNG. OPTED TO REMOVE ALL POPS OVER THE FAR
W GIVEN EVEN WEAKER COOLING FCST THERE. ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG
AXIS AND DIURNAL HEATING WL END ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE E HALF.
DESPITE THE INFLUX OF RATHER DRY LLVL AIR...EXPECT INCRSG MID/HI
CLDS RELATED TO WAA AHEAD OF FALLING MSLP IN THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF
SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.

TNGT...MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A BAND
OF SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-290K SFCS /ABOUT
H85-675/ SETTING UP OVER THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF A WARM FNT ORIENTED
IN THE UPR MIDWEST OUT AHEAD OF A LO PRES THAT IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR
MINNEAPOLIS BY 12Z TUE. COMBINATION OF THIS WAA/ACCOMPANYING DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/BAND OF MID LVL FGEN/SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF
100KT H3 JET MAX STREAKING THRU THE UPR MIDWEST WL CAUSE AN AREA OF
SN TO DVLP W-E. AXIS OF SHARPEST FCST FGEN APPEARS TO FAVOR THE
NCENTRAL CWA FOR THE HEAVIER SN. CONCERNS INCLUDE HOW QUICKLY LLVL
DRY AIR CAN BE OVERCOME AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER DEEP LYR FORCING TO
THE S. WITH THE LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...TENDED TO KEEP POPS/QPF A
BIT LOWER IN THE EVNG. FCST H7-75 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ARND 2.5G/KG
WOULD FAVOR 2-3 INCHES OF SN IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD WHEN THE SHARPER
FORCING/UVV ARE FCST...BUT TENDED CLOSER TO ABOUT 2 INCHES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF THE LLVL DRY AIR AND EXPECTED SN/WATER
RATIOS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 15:1. FCST THERMAL FIELDS ALSO INDICATE
SOME RA COULD MIX WITH THE SN OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL...WHERE PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTEST FARTHER FM THE AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN SPREADING SNOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AND LARGER AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH. A MIX WITH RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTH PER...NAM/GFS FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THERE IS A SMALLER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
SOUTH AT THE ONSET WHILE TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING. HOWEVER...ANY
FROZEN PCPN WOULD BE VERY BRIEF...GIVEN THE MINIMAL/TRANSIENT ELEVATED
WARM LAYER. THE PCPN WILL BE SUPPORTED BY 285K-295K ISENTRROPIC
ASCENT THROUGH THE STEEP 800-650 MB FRONTAL ZONE. WITH 2-3G/KG
AVAILABLE DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT AND SLR VALUES AROUND
10/1 EXPECTED...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ARE LIKELY
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE SNOW MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN N CNTRL UPPER
MI WHERE UPSLOPE NE FLOW WILL INCREASE.

WED THROUGH THU...SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE SHRTWV...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
AND QPF INTO THE WRN LAKES COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM
REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA AND POSSIBLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. THE
THE CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND VERY DRY
AIR WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH PRES...SOLUTIONS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SEEM
MORE PLAUSIBLE...PER WPC. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD...THE FCST MAINTAINS A CONSENSUS FCST WHICH BRINGS CHANCE
POPS OVER THE THE AREA. HOWEVER...HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE...PER THE LOWER PROB GFS SCENARIO.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THE
POSITION/TIMING/STRENGTH OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES THAT COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE AREA...GIVEN CONTINUED LARGE MODEL SPREAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHSN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
THIS MRNG WILL TAPER OFF OR END BY MIDDAY MONDAY. DRY AIR AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN LOW END
VFR CIGS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...SO LEFT PRECIP OUT OF TAFS. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING SOME
LOWERING OF CLOUD CIGS...PERHAPS TO HIGH END MVFR BY LATE
EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND LOWERING OF CIGS WILL OCCUR AFT 06Z TUE WHEN DEEP LAYER
MOISTENING OCCURS WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

WITH A HI PRES RIDGE MOVING OVER THE UPPER LAKES TODAY...EXPECT
DIMINISHING WINDS UNDER 15-20 KTS. UNDER A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND LO PRES CENTERS RUNNING ALONG A LO
PRES TROUGH IN THE LOWER LAKES...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL PREVAIL
TUE THROUGH THU. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN WITH A HI PRES RIDGE ON
FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 341 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPS/WINDS/POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
TODAY...TEMPS TUE AND THEN TEMPS/POPS/PCPN TYPE/TSTM CHANCES ON
WED. SO THERE ARE PLENTY OF ISSUES.

THE LARGE SCALE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN FEATURED A TROUGH TO OUR
EAST...A RIDGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES UP INTO THE YUKON AND A TROUGH
MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB LAST
EVENING WERE ESTIMATED AT AROUND 100 METERS JUST OFF THE WA/OR
COAST. THERE WAS A DECENT 300 MB JET PUNCHING INTO NRN AND CNTRL
CA...WITH WINDS OF 100 KNOTS OR HIGHER. THERMAL AXIS AT 850 MB WAS
WELL TO OUR WEST...BUT WILL BE MOVING EWD TODAY. SURFACE ANLYS AT
08Z SHOWED SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM MN DOWN INTO MO. DEWPOINTS LOCALLY
WERE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...AND THIS DRY AIR STRETCHED
BACK DOWN INTO KS AND WRN OK. JUST HOW FAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TODAY IS IN QUESTION. GAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WEIGHT
TO THE RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS INTO LATE AFTN.

TODAY...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...BRINGING MUCH WARMER
AIR INTO THE AREA. HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S...BUT SOME OF OUR WRN AND
SRN COUNTIES COULD POTENTIALLY REACH NEAR OR OVER 70. CURRENT
EXPECTED RH VALUES ARE MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING SO WILL
DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. THE RECENT RAIN
HAD HELPED A BIT SINCE WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME GREENUP IN SOME
SPOTS...BUT NOT MUCH.

PCPN CHANCES SEEM LOW TODAY/TONIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO
SEE IF ANYTHING MIGHT DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SWD ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUE. EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR FCST
DETAILS THROUGH WED. BY 12Z WED...SFC LOW SHOULD EITHER BE OVER
NRN KS OR NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTH
WITH THIS FEATURE (COMPARED TO THE NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF) AND IS NOT
THE PREFERRED MODEL AT THIS TIME. GFS WAS ALSO FASTER AND FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE 500 MB LOW...AND APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. DIFLUENT FLOW AND GENERAL OVERALL FORCING
FOR ASCENT SHOULD HELP PCPN BREAK OUT IN OUR NRN AND POSSIBLY
CNTRL ZONES FOR TUE NGT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TUE NGT IS IN
OUR SRN COUNTIES WITH NEGATIVE MID LEVEL EPV...BUT GENERALLY NOT
COINCIDENT WITH BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF
-TSRA TUE NGT. USING THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE MOST PART...TROWAL
STRUCTURE AND NEGATIVE 700-500 MB EPV WILL BE IN A GENERAL AXIS
FROM ERN IA INTO SCNTRL NE BY 18Z WED. USING 850 MB TEMPS AS A
GENERAL PROXY FOR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME VERY
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR FAR NW FCST AREA BY 18Z WED AND
PROBABLY REACHING DOWN CLOSE TO A LINE FROM SEWARD TO HARLAN BY
00Z THU. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...
GENERALLY SHIFTING TO JUST SERN NE AND SWRN IA BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY NW OF NORFOLK...UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
AND SHOULD RANGE TO AROUND 70 AT FALLS CITY. THIS IS ALL VERY
DEPENDENT ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN BUT IS A BEST ESTIMATE AT
THIS POINT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH 1-3 INCHES IN NERN NE
DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH DRIER
AIR STARTING TO MOVE INTO NERN NE. SNOW AMOUNTS 2-4 INCHES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
WED NGT NEAR THE SD AND KS BORDERS. WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR AS WELL
BUT AT THIS POINT TOUGH TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING
THERE WILL BE SINCE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY WET. BUT WINDS SPEEDS OF
15-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY. AGAIN...GAVE THE 00Z
ECMWF A BIT MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS. LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER
INTO MID MORNING THU IN FAR SERN NE AND FAR SWRN IA.

THU NGT AND FRI SHOULD BE DRY...AS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE SOME POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT
VERY GOOD AND CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH. 00Z ECMWF WAS WET FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA SAT INTO SAT NGT...WHILE THE GFS KEPT HIGHEST
PCPN POTENTIAL IN SERN NE AND SWRN IA JUST ON SAT. STAYED CLOSE TO
AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
ISSUE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY...THEN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP BY 11-12Z AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. SURFACE
WINDS THEN FINALLY COUPLE BY 15-16Z WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 16 TO 26 KNOTS THAT CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 315 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MID
WEEK AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW.
EXPECT THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO TREND MILDER BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 114 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST STILL IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE TO
THIS POINT WITH JUST NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON MODERATELY FAST SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LARGER
PRECIPITATION SHIELD STILL IS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. AS IS EVIDENT ON 00Z ALB/GYX RAOBS, AIRMASS
ACROSS OUR AREA IS VERY DRY FROM 700 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO
STILL NEED LOW-LEVELS TO FURTHER SATURATE BEFORE OUR EXTREME
EASTERN VT COUNTIES GET BRUSHED BY WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
SHIELD - MEANING EITHER FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW - AS PER
INCOMING 00Z NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE. FORECAST HAS LIMITED CHANCES
FOR SNOW COVERED PRETTY WELL. LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH BEST
RADIATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE SKY COVER SHOULD CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 356 PM SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE SUN ANGLE BEGINNING
TO DROP EXPECT OUR MAX TEMPS TO BE RIGHT AROUND NOW AND THEN
SLOWLY BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT WE WON`T SEE NEAR THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
AS LAST NIGHT SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE HIGH
TEENS TO LOWER 20S THIS EVENING.

WHAT WILL BECOME THE COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST IS
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EXPECT IT TO
QUICKLY DEEPEN AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC. ULTIMATELY THIS LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND
SO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE OUTSIDE
LOOKING. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS FOR SOUTHERN WINDSOR COUNTY WHERE
THERE IS CHANCE THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SYSTEM. I DONT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND PLENTY
OF GUIDANCE DOESN`T EVEN FORECAST MEASURABLE SNOW.

ONCE THE LOW DOES DEVELOP OUR WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY
DEVELOPING GUSTY PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS SO I ANTICIPATE
TOMORROW COULD BE QUITE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DRIVING IN
MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR TOMORROW EVENING. WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TOMORROW ANTICIPATE ANOTHER DAY
NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 IN
THE CONNECTICUT, SAINT LAWRENCE, AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED
THROUGH TIME. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PCPN BY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE INTL BORDER. MODELS HAVE REMAINED QUITE
CONSISTENT IN REGARD TO TIMING, TRACK AND MEAN QPF FOR THIS
FEATURE AND HAVE LARGELY KEPT WITH PRIOR THINKING SHOWING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS ARRIVING BY THE EVENING HOURS AND
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS WET BULB/PBL COOLING
PROCESSES STRENGTHEN. PRECIPITATION THEN QUICKLY TAPERS OFF BY
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL AND ALL MAINLY
LIGHT QPF EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME SHADOWING EFFECTS
EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN/SOUTHERN VT VALLEYS OWING TO FAIRLY
ROBUST 925-850 MB WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 35 TO 50 KTS. USING
LOCALLY DEVELOPED STANDARDIZED CLIMO SLR RATES OFFERS LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SLV/NRN GREENS AND
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES OR SO IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY NIGHT. LESS SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FROM BURLINGTON SOUTHWARD AND IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY
FROM WHITE RIVER SOUTH WHERE SOME AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ON TUESDAY, THEN 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT, AN
INCREASINGLY COMPLEX/DIFFICULT PATTERN THEN EVOLVES BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD THE POLAR FRONT DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION, THEN RETREATS SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES CREATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WINTRY/MIXED PCPN/RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
WE`RE STILL DEALING WITH QUITE THE DISPARITY IN THE GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PLAYERS WITH
THIS MORNING`S MODELS LARGELY HOLDING FIRM WITH THEIR PRIOR
SOLUTIONS. THE DIFFERENCES INVOLVE THE STRENGTH OF A POTENTIAL
BLOCKING POLAR HIGH OFF TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH AND THE EXTENT TO
WHICH IT EITHER 1) HOLDS FIRM, OR 2) GIVES WAY TO THE ADVANCING
LOW. QUITE IRONIC IN A COOL SEASON VIRTUALLY ABSENT OF BLOCKING IT
DECIDES TO APPEAR IN THE WANING DAYS OF MARCH. ANYHOW THE
EVOLUTION/INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SURFACE FRONT/HIGH/LOW YIELDS
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN BOTH TIMING/ARRIVAL OF PCPN AND PBL THERMAL
STRUCTURE WITH THE EURO/UKMET CAMP ON THE COLDER/SLOWER SIDE OF
THE ENVELOPE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH I`VE TRENDED SOMEWHAT
COOLER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE DURING THESE PERIODS AND CONTINUING
THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIXED PCPN AFFECTING THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE A SLOW TRANSITION TO
MAINLY RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TIME WILL TELL HOW IT ALL
EVOLVES SO STAY TUNED.

BY NEXT WEEKEND LARGE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS GUIDANCE OFFERS A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FROM MAINLY DRY TO QUITE WET. THIS APPEARS
MAINLY DUE TO RIPPLING EFFECTS FROM THE TIMING DISPARITIES
ORIGINATING IN THE THU/FRI TIME RANGE DISCUSSED ABOVE. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP WITH PRIOR TRENDS OFFERING MAINLY DRY WEATHER SATURDAY/SUNDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST WPC DAY 5/6
OUTLOOK. THINGS COULD CHANGE THOUGH. I DO HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH DAILY MEANS AVERAGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE MARCH NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS WITH
VARYING AMTS OF MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS (9000FT AND HIGHER) TONIGHT
THRU MID-AFTN MONDAY. MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
VCNTY SLK/MSS WITH INCREASING NW WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. CARRIED
JUST VCSH AT SLK AFTER 21Z MONDAY FOR NOW. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY SE 5-10KTS AT RUT THRU DAYBREAK. WINDS
BCMG NW MID-LATE MORNING MONDAY...SUSTAINED 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS
16-20KTS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH GUSTY WINDS ON
MONDAY. SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SLK AND MPV.

00Z WED ONWARD...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1006 PM SUNDAY...AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT MASSENA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT/RICHARDS FIELD (KMSS) HAVE BEEN SPORADICALLY
TRANSMITTING OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO TELCO PROBLEMS. PERIODIC
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS TECHNICIANS WORK TO ADDRESS
THESE TELECOMMS ISSUES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 126 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MID
WEEK AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW.
EXPECT THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO TREND MILDER BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 114 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST STILL IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE TO
THIS POINT WITH JUST NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON MODERATELY FAST SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LARGER
PRECIPITATION SHIELD STILL IS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. AS IS EVIDENT ON 00Z ALB/GYX RAOBS, AIRMASS
ACROSS OUR AREA IS VERY DRY FROM 700 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO
STILL NEED LOW-LEVELS TO FURTHER SATURATE BEFORE OUR EXTREME
EASTERN VT COUNTIES GET BRUSHED BY WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
SHIELD - MEANING EITHER FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW - AS PER
INCOMING 00Z NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE. FORECAST HAS LIMITED CHANCES
FOR SNOW COVERED PRETTY WELL. LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH BEST
RADIATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE SKY COVER SHOULD CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 356 PM SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE SUN ANGLE BEGINNING
TO DROP EXPECT OUR MAX TEMPS TO BE RIGHT AROUND NOW AND THEN
SLOWLY BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT WE WON`T SEE NEAR THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
AS LAST NIGHT SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE HIGH
TEENS TO LOWER 20S THIS EVENING.

WHAT WILL BECOME THE COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST IS
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EXPECT IT TO
QUICKLY DEEPEN AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC. ULTIMATELY THIS LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND
SO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE OUTSIDE
LOOKING. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS FOR SOUTHERN WINDSOR COUNTY WHERE
THERE IS CHANCE THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SYSTEM. I DONT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND PLENTY
OF GUIDANCE DOESN`T EVEN FORECAST MEASURABLE SNOW.

ONCE THE LOW DOES DEVELOP OUR WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY
DEVELOPING GUSTY PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS SO I ANTICIPATE
TOMORROW COULD BE QUITE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DRIVING IN
MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR TOMORROW EVENING. WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TOMORROW ANTICIPATE ANOTHER DAY
NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 IN
THE CONNECTICUT, SAINT LAWRENCE, AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. EXPECTING MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE
CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN OR SNOW
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION LIKELY WITH
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR
MOVE INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS WITH
VARYING AMTS OF MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS (9000FT AND HIGHER) TONIGHT
THRU MID-AFTN MONDAY. MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
VCNTY SLK/MSS WITH INCREASING NW WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. CARRIED
JUST VCSH AT SLK AFTER 21Z MONDAY FOR NOW. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY SE 5-10KTS AT RUT THRU DAYBREAK. WINDS
BCMG NW MID-LATE MORNING MONDAY...SUSTAINED 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS
16-20KTS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH GUSTY WINDS ON
MONDAY. SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SLK AND MPV.

00Z WED ONWARD...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1006 PM SUNDAY...AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT MASSENA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT/RICHARDS FIELD (KMSS) HAVE BEEN SPORADICALLY
TRANSMITTING OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO TELCO PROBLEMS. PERIODIC
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS TECHNICIANS WORK TO ADDRESS
THESE TELECOMMS ISSUES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 1121 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE EARLIER RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA AFTER DROPPING NEARLY 1
INCH OF SNOW AROUND THE MONTEREY AREA ON THE PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOW APPROACHING THE MID STATE FROM THE
NORTH...AND HRRR MODEL INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO 06Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. MAIN OTHER CONCERN IS CLOUD
COVER...WHICH BOTH VERTICAL MOISTURE PLOTS FROM GFS/NAM AND
UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S AND UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER APPEARS SCATTERED IN NATURE...ANY
CLOUDS COULD STILL PREVENT SOME AREAS FROM REACHING THE FREEZING
MARK AS WELL AS NEGATE ANY FROST FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP INHERITED FREEZE WARNING AS IS. NOTE
THAT MUCH OF NASHVILLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND...BUT OUTLYING PARTS OF DAVIDSON COUNTY
AND ESPECIALLY THE SUBURBS ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL NEAR/BELOW
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL PULLING AWAY FROM MID STATE WITH
DIMINSHED PATCHY LIGHT RAIN JUST ABOUT ALL GONE FROM RADAR SCOPE.
1030 MBAR SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AT LATE EVENING
WITH GOOD GRADIENT ACROSS TENNESSEE WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS UP A
BIT OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS. INITIALLY MVFR AT CROSSVILLE
OVERNIGHT BECOMING VFR BY 15Z IF NOT SOONER. VFR ELSEWHERE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BEDFORD-CANNON-CHEATHAM-
CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-DE KALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-
GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-
MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-
RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-
WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1120 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

FORECAST FOCUS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ON THE CYCLONE CROSSING
THE REGION MID-WEEK...AND IT/S POTENTIAL TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. THOUGH EXHIBITING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM...AND CANADIAN
MODELS GENERATED A SYSTEM THAT WOULD BRING HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THESE MODELS...
SOME MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE
PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...AND HAD A
SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. IT/S TRACK COULD
STILL RESULT IN WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS OVER ABOUT THE SE 1/4 TO 1/3
OF THE FCST AREA...BUT WITH LOWER TOTALS AND A MUCH SHARPER
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION NW OF THE FOX VALLEY.

A FEW THOUGHTS ON THIS SYSTEM FROM ROUGHLY 3 DAYS OUT. BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF HAD GOOD SUPPORT FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEANS. LOOKED TO SEE IF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWED EVEN A SMALL
CLUSTERING OF MEMBERS WITH A MORE SLY TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF...AND FOUND NO EVIDENCE OF THAT. SO THERE DOESN/T SEEM TO
BE MUCH HELP FROM THE ENSEMBLE DATA. ONE THING THAT CAUGHT MY EYE
WAS THAT THE 12Z RUN OF THE UKMET TRACKED THE CYCLONE MUCH
FARTHER SE...BASICALLY EWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT WOULD
INDICATE SOME SUPPORT FOR A TRACK MORE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE
ECWMF...THOUGH UNLIKE THE ECMWF...THE UKMET WAS VERY FAST MOVG THE
SYSTEM EAST. IT/S ALSO HARD TO GO AGAINST THE ECMWF AFTER IT
CLEARLY OUT PERFORMED THE REST OF THE MODELS WITH LAST WEEKS
SYSTEM.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY COME INTO BETTER FOCUS
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT THERE IS REASON
TO BE AT LEAST A LITTLE SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALLS
GENERATED BY THE GFS. CURRENT HWO HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS TO AT LEAST PORTIONS
OF THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THAT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE SITUATION UNTIL BETTER
CONFIDENCE IS GAINED IN THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND AND
THE SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE BAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO AND APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND IS GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST.  EXPECT
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WI THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.  THE CU FIELD HAS NOT BEEN AS
ROBUST FARTHER SOUTH...AND THINK SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.  FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND SKY TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SHORT-TERM.

TONIGHT...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON THIS EVENING.  WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...THE HIGHER RES MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  A SMALL CHANCE REMAINS THAT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO FAR N-C WISCONSIN AND THE NORTHERN TIP
OF THE DOOR.  ELSEWHERE...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO BE PRESENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  AS A
RESULT...CLOUDS THAT BUILD THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE NORTH...EVEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  SOME BREAKS WILL
INEVITABLY OCCUR THOUGH. EXCEPT FOR THE DOOR PENINSULA...PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ONCE THE CU
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SINCE WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS AROUND...LOW
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH.

MONDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
MORNING.  THOUGH DIURNAL BUILD UP OF CU SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS TODAY...WILL HAVE AMPLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR A PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.  HIGHS AROUND
40 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

HIGHLIGHT OF THIS PERIOD TOWARD MID WEEK AS PROGS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO PASS OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION INCLUDING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

BUT FIRST...FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT LIFTING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED WITH A UPPER 100 KT
JETLET LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA. FORECAST TEMPS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW FOR FAR
NORTHEAST THEN TRENDING TO LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION APPEARS STILL ON TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS
SEPARATING THE COLD AIR MASS TO THE NORTH WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH
THE REGION OF HEAVY SNOW STARTING MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL THE
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.

WHILE CONFIDENCE OF A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS INCREASING FOR THE
REGION DUE TO A COLDER TREND...CONFIDENCE OF THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVY SNOW BAND REMAINS LOW. OVERVIEW OF THE LATEST PROGS...THE
GFS PAINTS THE HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS WELL SOUTH. THE CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BUT
INCLUDES HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

ALL PROGS DEVELOP A VERY INTENSE FGEN BAND OF SNOW WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SURFACE AND H850 LOW TRACK OVER
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE BLUSTERY
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINTER
RETURNS TO THE AREA.

QUIET WEATHER BUT COOL REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER.

MEDIUM RANGE PROGS SUGGESTS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT DROPS OVER
THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CLD DECK TO
DEVELOP AND DROP SWD INTO NRN WI TNGT. NOT MUCH SIGN OF THAT
HAPPENING YET...THOUGH COLDER AIR STILL ARRIVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. WL STILL KEEP THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE FCST...BUT DELAY
IT SOME FM 00Z TAF. OTHERWISE...MID-CLDS HAVE INCREASED ACRS THE
REGION...THOUGH THAT IS OF LIMITED CONCERN FOR THE TAFS. GENERALLY
GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 624 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...
400 AM CDT

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

QUIET AND MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WORK WEEK...AS
UPPER TROUGH WHICH PLAGUED THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS...AND ALLOWING A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD
TEND TO LIMIT ITS INLAND EXTENT HOWEVER...AND MAY EVEN PUSH IT
BACK TOWARD THE LAKE AFFECTING MAINLY THE ILLINOIS SHORE FROM
CHICAGO NORTHWARD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE MAINLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. BLEND OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS FROM MODELS SUPPORT
REACHING HIGHS AROUND 50 WELL WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER 40S RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.

MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE THEN RIDES THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT...MAKING SOUTH
WINDS TURN BREEZY TONIGHT AND MAINTAINING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT. GULF IS BLOCKED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...SO
WHILE WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA INTO TUESDAY...THE
FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH. WARMER AIR LOOKS TO SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25 MPH BRINGING THE WARMTH
RIGHT UP TO THE LAKE SHORE.

RATZER

&&

.LONG TERM...
400 AM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION OF FLAT MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE
AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH RE-FOCUSES
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL SET UP QUITE A
GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GOOD 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS FROM THE LOW
40S NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH OF I-80 ON
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WELL...PRIMARILY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE STRONGER WESTERN TROUGH
APPROACHES. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP INTO THE CWA FROM
THE WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED
HAIL PRODUCING STORMS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL
PRODUCERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER SUPPORT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SPC
HAS INCLUDED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE WFO LOT CWA IN A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR DAY 3.

MODEL CONSENSUS DECREASES THURSDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF
BUT MUCH SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS. HAVE
GENERALLY USED A NAM/SREF BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD AS THESE ARE IN-BETWEEN OTHER VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO WET
SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN IL
THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH WITH PROFILES REMAINING MARGINAL ENOUGH
TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO NORTH OF THE IL/WI BORDER.
THE SLOWER/FARTHER SOUTH ECMWF COULD BE A MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW
PRODUCER ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL IF ITS TRACK WERE TO
VERIFY PERFECTLY...THOUGH FOR NOW PREFER THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLENDED APPROACH. ANY LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST.

A BRIEF LULL COMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND...WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGESTING TEMPS IN THE 40S-50S AND MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...


HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND PICK UP SOME IN MAGNITUDE. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
FOR TODAY WILL BE TRYING TO DETERMINE HOW FAR INLAND A LAKE BREEZE
WILL PUSH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK OVER THE LAKE. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR
AND RAP BRING THE BOUNDARY CLOSE OR RIGHT OVER MDW/ORD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. RAP TURNS WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE TO PUSH INLAND...THE MAGNITUDE OF
WINDS MAY STAY BELOW 10KT IF DOES PUSH THROUGH AND SWING WINDS
AROUND TO THE EAST WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE IMPACTS TO SOME
DEGREE. UNTIL THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WILL KEEP
MENTION OF A WIND SHIFT OUT OF ORD/MDW...BUT DO HAVE MENTION OF
WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS AT GYY. THE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY
MORNING...WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
250 AM CDT

A WEAK TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
EXPECTED. A RIDGE AXIS CENTERED WEST OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PASS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND MIDDAY ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE LAKE
AS THE RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LAKE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE. THE LOW WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY...THEN GALES WILL FINALLY DIMINISH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

 615 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

07Z water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low over the
northeastern Pacific with an upper level ridge downstream from the
desert southwest through the northern Rockies. This leaves northwest
flow over the central plains this morning. At the surface, a ridge
of high pressure was centered over east TX and a trough of low
pressure was gradually deepening across the northern high plains.

The forecast for today and tonight calls for dry weather to continue
as the northwest flow aloft does not appear to have any significant
waves within it. Additionally the surface ridge along the TX gulf
coast looks to slow down any low level moisture return as onshore
flow has yet to develop. Although the strengthening low pressure
system over the northern high plains will cause the pressure
gradient to become quite strong today causing winds to gust up to
35 MPH. It is not out of the question that the wind speeds could
flirt with wind advisory criteria this afternoon. But the pressure
gradient appears to fall just shy of what typically occurs when we
have wind advisory days. So will not issue one at this time but the
day shift will want to monitor trends today. Models mix the boundary
layer to around 875MB. With some warm air advection this should
cause highs to be in the 60s. With good insolation expected, went
with mid 60s to around 70 for highs today. Tonight`s temps should be
much more mild with the pressure gradient keeping the boundary layer
mixed. So lows are expected to be in the mid 40s with only some high
cirrus passing overhead.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

Upper trough over the Great Basin begins to deepen on Tuesday. In
turn southwesterly winds stronger upstream of the sfc low progged to
be centered over northwest KS by 00Z Wednesday. Portions of east
central KS may need a Wind Advisory as sustained speeds average in
the 25 to 30 mph with gusts in upwards of 40 mph. In addition to the
dry air mass in place, fire weather concerns remain for the
afternoon hours. Please see Fire Weather Discussion for more
information. Other main story for Tuesday is the warmth as h85 temps
may reach the lower 20C range, resulting in widespread lower 80s for
much of the area. As the cold front approaches north central Kansas
late afternoon Wednesday, the tightening pressure gradient and
compressional warming ahead of the boundary will likely see another
very warm afternoon as gusty southerly winds maximize at 20 to 30
mph sustained. Highs behind the front over north central KS are in
the lower 60s while low to upper 70s are expected elsewhere.
After the boundary passes through, temps quickly fall into the lower
30s Thursday morning. Thursdays readings in the upper 40s is the
only cool day for the week before southerly return flow recovers
highs into the 60s for the weekend. Lows are generally in the middle
to upper 30s.

Precip chances increase beginning Wednesday for areas north of
Interstate 70 as convergence enhances along the cold front. Track of
the sfc and parent low still varies between guidance with a decent
spread leading to lesser confidence in precipitation occurring,
especially south of Interstate 70. Northern areas near the Nebraska
border have consistently seen the better lift with the upper low
focusing towards Nebraska so have increased pops to likely Wednesday
evening into Thursday as the upper low phases as it exits northeast.
QPF amounts are still variable this far out between a tenth to half
of an inch, locally higher. Main concern is the presence of weak
elevated instability during the day Wednesday lending to a mention
of isolated thunder. As the system organizes Wednesday evening,
better chances for thunder shift further east into MO. Also noted
the colder air trending a bit faster than yesterday, dropping
profilers below freezing over north central KS by midnight. It
appears rain mixed snow is possible for the entire CWA by sunrise
Thursday with a transition to snow over north central KS. Amounts if
any would be minor or none due to warm ground temps. Next system
impacts the CWA Saturday with rain being the primary precip type.
Latest GFS and ECMWF still vary the speed and timing of the system
so have maintained low pops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

A dry airmass and no real forcing should lead to VFR conditions.
Bigger concern are the winds, which will become gusty this
afternoon. The strong pressure gradient is expected to keep gusty
winds at the surface well into the evening and FOE may remain
gusty through 12Z Tue. Because of this, I`ve delayed the beginning
of LLWS, or in the case of FOE removed LLWS, in the forecast.
Think TOP and MHK, which are in the KS river valley, could have
winds diminish enough for LLWS Tue morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

The warm and windy conditions today are expected to lead to extreme
fire danger today and will upgrade the watch to a red flag warning.
The winds appear to obviously meet the criteria for a warning. The
main concern, as is usually the case, is the humidity. Since there
does not appear to be a strong surge of low level moisture from the
gulf yet, have generally gone with the dryer RAP and GFS solutions
for dewpoint temps. This gives me minimum RH values between 20 and
25 percent. While not exactly meeting criteria, feel like this is
close enough given our tendency to not get the RH values low enough.
Will keep the warning going into this evening as the southwesterly
winds look to remain strong past sunset. The thinking is this should
give the boundary layer RH a little more time to recover to around
40 percent before ending the warning.

On Tuesday, deep mixing within the boundary layer up to 700 mb is
possible, mixing RH values into the lower to middle 20s for most
of northeast Kansas. Winds are expected to be at 25 to 30 mph
sustained over east central KS through early evening. Confidence
is higher in the drier air being realized in addition to the
strong winds. Have decided to continue with the Fire Weather
Watch, likely needing a warning later today.

Wednesday also shows elevated fire concerns with the cold front and
the drier airmass entering north central Kansas by late afternoon.
Depending on where the cold front is positioned by late afternoon,
areas along and ahead of it show deeper mixing with southerly winds
at 25 to 30 mph sustained. RH values are forecast in the lower 20s
for areas along the Flint Hills and points eastward. Additional fire
headlines are likely needed in future forecasts.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters/Bowen




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 559 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE WIND AND THE COMBINATION OF LOWER
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL AFFECT
GRASSLAND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY
INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS TODAY WILL LIKELY TO BE OFFSET
A BIT THIS AFTERNOON BY LOW LEVEL MIXING IN THE DRY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE CORRIDOR AND MAY FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO SO AT THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE GOING MAXS SEEM REASONABLE TODAY WITH
WARMEST READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH A
RECORD HIGH POSSIBLE AT RUSSELL. WHILE THE LOWEST DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...THE STRONGEST
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RESIDE ALONG/EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.
THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS STOUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE DRY-LINE/PACIFIC FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WARM SECTOR LOOK SLIM AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE FLUX WILL ARRIVE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER
WILL MAINTAIN MODEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR RAIN TO A WINTRY
MIX LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. PLAN TO FOLLOW
A NON-DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
COLD ADVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

COOLER/MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER LOOK ON
TRACK FOR THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID-WEEK
UPPER TROF WITH A WARMING TREND INTO FRIDAY. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A MEAN UPPER TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE AND COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS KANSAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY.
WHILE TIMING AND DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO NEED REFINEMENT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST COOLING AND PRECIP CHANCES
NEXT WEEKEND.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND BECOMES STRONG AND GUSTY AT ALL TERMINALS.
WITH VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING
WINDS IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE SURFACE OF 35+ KNOTS...COULD SEE SOME
STOUT WIND GUSTS FAIRLY EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER THE SUNSETS THIS
EVENING...WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT...BUT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ON THE REGION EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN
BREEZY. WITH DRY AIR MOVING OVERHEAD...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE FLINT HILLS WESTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES. WHILE THE
CONDITIONS MAY BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL FURTHER EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FORECAST CONSENSUS IS TO GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

CONFIDENCE ON RED FLAG/EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
A BIT HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH THE
WARMEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...THOUGH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD ALSO PUSH CONDITIONS TO EXTREME OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FORECAST CONSENSUS SUPPORTED EXPANDING A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EVEN STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP-FREE AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
OR RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  47  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      71  46  85  54 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          69  47  83  55 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        68  48  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  48  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         74  44  85  47 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      74  45  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          72  46  85  52 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       71  46  84  53 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  47  78  59 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         65  46  78  59 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            65  46  77  58 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    65  46  77  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 740 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS MAINLY TO ADJUST THEM
TOWARD THE LATEST SKY/T/TD OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SLACKENING TO NEAR CALM AND AN INVERSION
SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN VALLEYS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND SOME
CAA...ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE
UPPER 20S FOR PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FIVE
DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL RATHER DRY...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...THOUGH
SOME UPPER TEENS ARE NOTED IN THE FAR EAST AND ON THE RIDGES...
WHILE SOME LOW 30S ARE BEING REPORTED CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE
BORDER. THE DRIER AIR MAY BE SLOWING THE FROST FORMATION FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA...BUT AT SME THERE IS ACTUALLY ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
TOUCH OF FOG ATTM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH EXITING TO THE
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. THE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT WITH TIME INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE ZONAL DURING THE DAY WHILE THE BULK
OF ANY ENERGY STAYS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...THE FLOW OVER KENTUCKY WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHWEST TACK AND
EVEN SOME SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. GIVEN THE
HIGH LEVEL OF MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM FOR WX SPECIFICS...WHERE THERE
ARE ANY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY...AND LIKELY FROSTY...
START TO THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ENOUGH SUN WILL BE SEEN TO HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. ANOTHER NIGHT
OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SET UP A PRETTY GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FROST IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. MORE SUNSHINE LATER THAT DAY...ALONG WITH
WINDS PICKING UP SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LIKELY LEADING TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR CONCERNS...MORE DETAILS ON THIS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER. HAVE
ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO SIGNIFICANTLY ADJUST FOR TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...
ZEROED THEM OUT IN LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW REGIME. THAT SAID A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PLACED TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC AND WE WILL RESIDE IN THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE HIGH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WELL ESTABLISHED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...AND 40 TO 50 KNOT JET AT THE 850MB
LEVEL. THIS AS WE ARE TRAPPED BETWEEN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEREFORE OVERALL GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL COMBINE WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

NOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAIN...THAT WILL IN FACT BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR
THE REGION LATE WEEK. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. NOW FOR THE GUIDANCE THERE REMAINS AT LEAST
SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/CLOSED LOW AND THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING WITH THE
SURFACE FEATURES. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO
EVEN THE PAST 3 PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER
BUT STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUN. THE WPC FOLKS ARE
NOT SOLD ON THE OPERATIONAL AND STUCK WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS TO
LESSEN THE RUN TO RUN CHANGES. THEREFORE WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH SHOULD DO A SIMILAR JOB. RIGHT NOW STILL KEEP
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND LESSEN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. NOW THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON QPF IN
RELATION TO BEING SPLIT BY THE UPPER FORCING GOING NORTH AND THE
OVERALL BETTER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. RIGHT NOW MODEL BLENDS WOULD
SUGGEST WE SEE WIDESPREAD HALF A INCH OR MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THIS WOULD FINALLY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WHILE ONLY
MARGINAL AT BEST INSTABILITY IS SEEN WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SLIGHT
THUNDER...BUT RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS COULD CONTAIN FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS
GIVEN THE 50 TO 60 KNOT 850 MB JET THEY COULD PARTIALLY MIX DOWN.

AFTER THIS SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS EAST ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD
BE DRY LATER IN THE DAY. NOW FOR THE WEEKEND MORE CONVOLUTED
GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES EVIDENT. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP SATURDAY
DRY...THIS AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP IT DRY. NOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DO STICK WITH THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH DOES INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS. THE 00Z
GFS AND THE ENSEMBLE HAVE BEEN MOST ROBUST WITH BRINGING
OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THEREFORE WILL NOT BRING POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN THE BLEND. THIS WILL SYSTEM BE AIDED BY A
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SWINGS EAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. NOW THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
SETUP...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY AND CONSISTENCY WITH
OTHER OFFICES WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU...GENERALLY IN THE 4-6K FEET AGL
RANGE...WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
CLEARING. LIGHT WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY...SETTLING TO LIGHT IN THE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

GIVEN THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VERY LOW AFTERNOON/EVENING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON TUESDAY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND HIGHER WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CLOSE TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH RIGHT NOW...BUT WE MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER ONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IF MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THESE CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING SOME FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW RH VALUES WILL LEAD
TO A CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
THEN LOOKS TO BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
FIRE WEATHER...KAS/GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 757 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES.
PASSING SHRTWV/ATTENDANT COLD FROPA IS TRIGGERING SOME SCT SN
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL DRYNESS OF
THE AIRMASS PER LOCAL 00Z RAOBS AND ONLY SCT CLDS PER STLT IMAGERY
IS RESTRICTING THE COVERAGE OF THE SN SHOWERS ALONG THE FNT. DESPITE
SOME CHILLY AIR UPSTREAM IN NW ONTARIO...WHERE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS -17C
AT YPL...THAT IS FOLLOWING THE FROPA...STLT IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY SCT
LK EFFECT CLDS OVER LK SUP WITH VERY DRY AIR NOTED ON THE 00Z YPL
RAOB. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...THERE IS A SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE
NRN ROCKIES ON THE TOP OF THE WRN RDG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LES CHCS THIS MRNG AND
THEN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WAA SN TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.

TDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME COLD AIR WL BE STREAMING ACRS MAINLY THE E HALF
OF LK SUP...H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO FALL NO LOWER THAN ABOUT -13 TO
-14C OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS...
MARGINAL H85 TEMPS...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV AND WEAK LLVL CNVGC FCSDT...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLD-SCT SN
SHOWERS OVER THE E THIS MRNG. OPTED TO REMOVE ALL POPS OVER THE FAR
W GIVEN EVEN WEAKER COOLING FCST THERE. ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG
AXIS AND DIURNAL HEATING WL END ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE E HALF.
DESPITE THE INFLUX OF RATHER DRY LLVL AIR...EXPECT INCRSG MID/HI
CLDS RELATED TO WAA AHEAD OF FALLING MSLP IN THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF
SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.

TNGT...MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A BAND
OF SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-290K SFCS /ABOUT
H85-675/ SETTING UP OVER THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF A WARM FNT ORIENTED
IN THE UPR MIDWEST OUT AHEAD OF A LO PRES THAT IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR
MINNEAPOLIS BY 12Z TUE. COMBINATION OF THIS WAA/ACCOMPANYING DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/BAND OF MID LVL FGEN/SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF
100KT H3 JET MAX STREAKING THRU THE UPR MIDWEST WL CAUSE AN AREA OF
SN TO DVLP W-E. AXIS OF SHARPEST FCST FGEN APPEARS TO FAVOR THE
NCENTRAL CWA FOR THE HEAVIER SN. CONCERNS INCLUDE HOW QUICKLY LLVL
DRY AIR CAN BE OVERCOME AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER DEEP LYR FORCING TO
THE S. WITH THE LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...TENDED TO KEEP POPS/QPF A
BIT LOWER IN THE EVNG. FCST H7-75 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ARND 2.5G/KG
WOULD FAVOR 2-3 INCHES OF SN IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD WHEN THE SHARPER
FORCING/UVV ARE FCST...BUT TENDED CLOSER TO ABOUT 2 INCHES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF THE LLVL DRY AIR AND EXPECTED SN/WATER
RATIOS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 15:1. FCST THERMAL FIELDS ALSO INDICATE
SOME RA COULD MIX WITH THE SN OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL...WHERE PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTEST FARTHER FM THE AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE OVER THE COMING WEEK...WITH A BAND OF
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEARING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A SWATH OF SNOW TIED TO A LAYER OF LOW-
LEVEL FGEN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CWA AWAY
FROM THE WI BORDER IN THE MORNING. SEE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR
INFORMATION REGARDING THE ONSET OF THIS SNOW. AN EVENT TOTAL OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO E
TO NE WIND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
SNOWFALL...TRAVEL FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE SOMEWHAT
HAZARDOUS. WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIX WITH RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT GIVEN EFFECTS FROM DYNAMIC
COOLING...HAVE FAVORED A SCENARIO WITH MORE OF A MIX THAN A COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AWAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. THERE...THE
SNOW MAY TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AS DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS
AND CLOUD LAYER MIN TEMPS RISE TO -6 TO -8C. LOWERING TEMPS AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECTING IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL TRANSITION THE PRECIP BACK TO FLURRIES FOR THE
IMMEDIATE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON THE EVOLUTION OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CANADIAN GEM...ECMWF..AND EVEN SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BRING A SLOWER-MOVING AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS/NAM REMAIN FASTER WITH A MORE NEUTRAL
TILT. THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE MUDDLED AS THE PHASING OF A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ENHANCES THE SYSTEM. ALL SOLUTIONS BRING AT
LEAST SOME SNOW TO PORTIONS OF UPPER MI...BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING...INTENSITY...AND NW EXTENT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE BETTER
MODEL CLUSTERING (CANADIAN/ECMWF) WHILE KEEPING IN MIND THAT A NW
SHIFT IN LINE WITH THE GFS/NAM CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN ALMOST NO AGREEMENT BY
THIS POINT OTHER THAN WITH THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS/CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING A ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIP SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH THE GFS ONCE AGAIN FAVORING THE
QUICKER SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 757 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

WITH INFLUX OF LLVL DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING CNDN HI PRES BLDG INTO THE
UPR LKS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THRU THE DAY DESPITE
INCRSG MID/HI CLDS. EXPECT A BAND OF SN TO THE N OF A STNRY FNT IN
THE UPR MIDWEST TO OVERSPREAD UPR MI TNGT...WITH LOWERING CIGS TO
MVFR AND VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

WITH A HI PRES RIDGE MOVING OVER THE UPPER LAKES TODAY...EXPECT
DIMINISHING WINDS UNDER 15-20 KTS. UNDER A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND LO PRES CENTERS RUNNING ALONG A LO
PRES TROUGH IN THE LOWER LAKES...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL PREVAIL
TUE THROUGH THU. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN WITH A HI PRES RIDGE ON
FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 644 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPS/WINDS/POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
TODAY...TEMPS TUE AND THEN TEMPS/POPS/PCPN TYPE/TSTM CHANCES ON
WED. SO THERE ARE PLENTY OF ISSUES.

THE LARGE SCALE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN FEATURED A TROUGH TO OUR
EAST...A RIDGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES UP INTO THE YUKON AND A TROUGH
MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB LAST
EVENING WERE ESTIMATED AT AROUND 100 METERS JUST OFF THE WA/OR
COAST. THERE WAS A DECENT 300 MB JET PUNCHING INTO NRN AND CNTRL
CA...WITH WINDS OF 100 KNOTS OR HIGHER. THERMAL AXIS AT 850 MB WAS
WELL TO OUR WEST...BUT WILL BE MOVING EWD TODAY. SURFACE ANLYS AT
08Z SHOWED SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM MN DOWN INTO MO. DEWPOINTS LOCALLY
WERE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...AND THIS DRY AIR STRETCHED
BACK DOWN INTO KS AND WRN OK. JUST HOW FAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TODAY IS IN QUESTION. GAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WEIGHT
TO THE RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS INTO LATE AFTN.

TODAY...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...BRINGING MUCH WARMER
AIR INTO THE AREA. HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S...BUT SOME OF OUR WRN AND
SRN COUNTIES COULD POTENTIALLY REACH NEAR OR OVER 70. CURRENT
EXPECTED RH VALUES ARE MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING SO WILL
DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. THE RECENT RAIN
HAD HELPED A BIT SINCE WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME GREENUP IN SOME
SPOTS...BUT NOT MUCH.

PCPN CHANCES SEEM LOW TODAY/TONIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO
SEE IF ANYTHING MIGHT DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SWD ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUE. EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR FCST
DETAILS THROUGH WED. BY 12Z WED...SFC LOW SHOULD EITHER BE OVER
NRN KS OR NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTH
WITH THIS FEATURE (COMPARED TO THE NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF) AND IS NOT
THE PREFERRED MODEL AT THIS TIME. GFS WAS ALSO FASTER AND FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE 500 MB LOW...AND APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. DIFLUENT FLOW AND GENERAL OVERALL FORCING
FOR ASCENT SHOULD HELP PCPN BREAK OUT IN OUR NRN AND POSSIBLY
CNTRL ZONES FOR TUE NGT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TUE NGT IS IN
OUR SRN COUNTIES WITH NEGATIVE MID LEVEL EPV...BUT GENERALLY NOT
COINCIDENT WITH BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF
-TSRA TUE NGT. USING THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE MOST PART...TROWAL
STRUCTURE AND NEGATIVE 700-500 MB EPV WILL BE IN A GENERAL AXIS
FROM ERN IA INTO SCNTRL NE BY 18Z WED. USING 850 MB TEMPS AS A
GENERAL PROXY FOR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME VERY
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR FAR NW FCST AREA BY 18Z WED AND
PROBABLY REACHING DOWN CLOSE TO A LINE FROM SEWARD TO HARLAN BY
00Z THU. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...
GENERALLY SHIFTING TO JUST SERN NE AND SWRN IA BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY NW OF NORFOLK...UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
AND SHOULD RANGE TO AROUND 70 AT FALLS CITY. THIS IS ALL VERY
DEPENDENT ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN BUT IS A BEST ESTIMATE AT
THIS POINT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH 1-3 INCHES IN NERN NE
DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH DRIER
AIR STARTING TO MOVE INTO NERN NE. SNOW AMOUNTS 2-4 INCHES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
WED NGT NEAR THE SD AND KS BORDERS. WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR AS WELL
BUT AT THIS POINT TOUGH TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING
THERE WILL BE SINCE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY WET. BUT WINDS SPEEDS OF
15-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY. AGAIN...GAVE THE 00Z
ECMWF A BIT MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS. LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER
INTO MID MORNING THU IN FAR SERN NE AND FAR SWRN IA.

THU NGT AND FRI SHOULD BE DRY...AS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE SOME POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT
VERY GOOD AND CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH. 00Z ECMWF WAS WET FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA SAT INTO SAT NGT...WHILE THE GFS KEPT HIGHEST
PCPN POTENTIAL IN SERN NE AND SWRN IA JUST ON SAT. STAYED CLOSE TO
AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LLVL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT AS SFC WINDS MIX
OUT...THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM AGAIN UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 25KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 251 PM PDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE BAY AREA. THE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN BY MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 PM PDT MONDAY...KMUX DOPPLER RADAR IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS MONTEREY. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PARENT STORM PUSHING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 1200Z ECMWF AND THE 1800Z GFS40
AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND MOVE THE FRONT SLOWLY OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AS COOL AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WEST
COAST. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS
FOR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT MONDAY...MAIN ISSUE REMAINS A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL GO THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. TRIED TO TIME
PRECIP MOSTLY WITH WHAT THE HRRR IS SHOWING WITH SOME HEDGING ALSO
TOWARD THE NAM. BIGGEST CHANCE SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE WAS TO
REMOVE +SHRA AT THE TERMINALS SINCE THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY (ALTHOUGH
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE IT COULD HAPPEN). AGREE THAT CIGS COULD DROP
TO 1500 FEET OF UNDER WITH MAIN BAND OF RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR TONIGHT. WINDS ALSO FORECAST TO PICK UP AS THE FRONT
NEARS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT. DIRECTION SHOULD MOST BE
IN THE 180 TO 210 RANGE PRE-FRONTAL THEN 240 TO 270 POST-FRONTAL.
WORTH NOTING THAT ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE WAS NOTED EARLIER TO OUR
NORTH SO WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT. OVERALL MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WINDS OF 170 TO 190 GUSTING UP TO 25 KT
FORECAST TO SWITCH MORE 240 TO 260 AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER
22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CHANGE CLOSE TO MVFR AROUND 19Z
WITH POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP TO 015 WITH MAIN BAND OF RAIN.
HOWEVER, HRRR SHOWS VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE SO CURRENT TAF IS MORE ON
THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z WITH VFR
FORECAST INTO TUESDAY. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE
RAIN TO THE NORTH DECIDED TO KEEP IT GOING FOR MONTEREY BAY REGION
TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL. SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNLESS
A MODERATE CELL MOVES THROUGH WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KT AFTER 22Z AS THE FRONT
NEARS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WATERS TODAY.
WESTERLY SWELL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM SONOMA
                  COUNTY THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 PM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 1043 AM PDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NORTH BAY WHERE
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:50 AM PDT MONDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE
WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AVERAGING BETWEEN 0.6
AND 0.9 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...KMUX DOPPLER RADAR IS
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN OVER SONOMA COUNTY WITH SOME STRONGER
RETURNS JUST OFF OF THE SONOMA COAST.

THE 0000Z ECMWF AND THE 1200Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED
WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MOVE THE FRONT INTO THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
LACK OF APPRECIABLE VERTICAL MOTION BETWEEN 5 TO 8 UBAR/S AND
NOT MUCH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER TO WORK WITH DON`T RAIN RATES
TO GET OUT OF CONTROL. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MAKES IT`S PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE MODERATE RAIN RATES
IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND EVEN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN THE NORTH BAY.

SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER AROUND THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AS COOL AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S 6 TO
10 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT MONDAY...MAIN ISSUE REMAINS A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL GO THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. TRIED TO TIME
PRECIP MOSTLY WITH WHAT THE HRRR IS SHOWING WITH SOME HEDGING ALSO
TOWARD THE NAM. BIGGEST CHANCE SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE WAS TO
REMOVE +SHRA AT THE TERMINALS SINCE THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY (ALTHOUGH
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE IT COULD HAPPEN). AGREE THAT CIGS COULD DROP
TO 1500 FEET OF UNDER WITH MAIN BAND OF RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR TONIGHT. WINDS ALSO FORECAST TO PICK UP AS THE FRONT
NEARS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT. DIRECTION SHOULD MOST BE
IN THE 180 TO 210 RANGE PRE-FRONTAL THEN 240 TO 270 POST-FRONTAL.
WORTH NOTING THAT ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE WAS NOTED EARLIER TO OUR
NORTH SO WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT. OVERALL MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WINDS OF 170 TO 190 GUSTING UP TO 25 KT
FORECAST TO SWITCH MORE 240 TO 260 AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER
22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CHANGE CLOSE TO MVFR AROUND 19Z
WITH POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP TO 015 WITH MAIN BAND OF RAIN.
HOWEVER, HRRR SHOWS VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE SO CURRENT TAF IS MORE ON
THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z WITH VFR
FORECAST INTO TUESDAY. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE
RAIN TO THE NORTH DECIDED TO KEEP IT GOING FOR MONTEREY BAY REGION
TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL. SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNLESS
A MODERATE CELL MOVES THROUGH WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KT AFTER 22Z AS THE FRONT
NEARS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WATERS TODAY.
WESTERLY SWELL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM SONOMA
                  COUNTY THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...SF BAY

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

 545 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

Increased low temperatures expected Tuesday morning by several
degrees. Thick cirrus, mixing surface winds, and warming airmass
will all deter radiational cooling tonight, with some locations
not falling below 50 degrees. Increased sky cover to partly cloudy
through sunrise to account for broken cirrus.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

A trough of low pressure at the surface will move east across
western Kansas overnight as an upper ridge axis crosses the
Central Plains. Southwesterly winds across western Kansas will
decrease after sunset but still range from 10 to 15 mph. Based on
the boundary level winds overnight along with the warming expected
in the boundary layer the lows tonight are expected to fall back
mainly into the 40 to 45 degree range.

On Tuesday a trough of low pressure will redevelop and deepen over
eastern Colorado as a cold front drops south across the Northern
Plains into Nebraska. Wind speeds across western Kansas will
increase into the 15 to 25 mph range by mid day based on the mean
mixed layer winds forecast by the NAM and GFS. Afternoon
temperatures should easily climb into the 80s given the 24 hour
850mb temperature change from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday. These
unseasonably warm temperatures when combined with afternoon dew
points ranging from 20 to 30 degrees along with gusty southwest
winds will result in favorable conditions for extreme fire
behavior. Have therefore upgraded the fire watch to a red flag
warning for Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

On Tuesday night an upper level trough, which was located off the
coast of the pacific northwest earlier today, will cross the four
corners region as a surface cold front drops south out of Nebraska
and into northern Kansas. Models disagreeing on how far south this
surface boundary will move Tuesday night, however the GFS and
ECMWF were in good agreement focusing the better chances for
precipitation north of this front where mid level moisture,
frontogenesis and instability will be improving ahead of the
approaching upper level storm system. At this time confidence is
not high on which model may be more correct so am currently
leaning towards staying close to persistence with the timing of
the onset of precipitation during the day Wednesday. This trend
would continue to favor the further south solution of this mid
week upper level storm system. Surface frontal passage would also
be sooner than previously expected and given the tight surface
pressure gradient behind the cold front and 900mb to 850mb winds
forecast behind this front very windy conditions along with
falling afternoon temperatures will be possible, especially across
west central and north central Kansas.

Along with the increasing winds the chance for precipitation will
also be on the increase Wednesday afternoon as the upper low
begins to move out into the Central Plains. This precipitation
appears to begin as rain but by late day across northern Kansas
this precipitation will change over to all snow. Snow
accumulations across north central Kansas and portions of western
Kansas does appear likely but how much snowfall that is expected
at this time remains unclear given the uncertainty on exactly
where this frontogenetic band will be and how long it will linger
in any particular area. Based on the latest GFS and ECMWF snow
accumulations of up to two inches will be possible for areas
northwest of a Garden City to Larned line.

The wind and precipitation will taper off early Thursday as the
upper low lifts northeast as a surface ridge axis begins to build
into the West Central High Plains. A northwest to westerly down
slope flow will develop late week as another upper level
disturbance drops south out of British Columbia and into the
Pacific northwest. This will result in a brief warming trend
Thursday and Friday.

As this next system approaches the central Plains early this
weekend there will be another chance for precipitation along with
another cool down in temperatures. Freezing temperatures will be
returning for the Easter holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

A weak surface boundary will cross far western Kansas this
afternoon. Near this surface boundary the southwest winds will
average between 10 and 15 knots. Further east, near and east of a
Dodge City to Hays line, southwest winds will range from 15 to
near 20 knots at times this afternoon. These gusty southwest winds
will fall back to near 10 knots after sunset. BUFR soundings along
with the latest RAP and HRRR indicate VFR conditions over the next
24 hours.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

Tuesday temperatures will average around 25 degrees above the
seasonal normals for this time of year. Give these warm afternoon
temperatures and afternoon dew points ranging from 20 to 30
degrees will yield relative humidity values between 5 to 15
percent. These dry conditions when combined with a gusty southwest
wind of 15 to 25 mph will produce extreme fire weather conditions.
A red flag warning has been issued Tuesday afternoon. Any out door
burning should be avoided.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  85  44  57 /   0   0   0  30
GCK  43  85  40  53 /   0   0   0  40
EHA  52  86  42  56 /   0   0   0  40
LBL  49  85  43  60 /   0   0   0  40
HYS  45  83  44  54 /   0   0   0  50
P28  49  86  50  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Tuesday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

 246 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

...Updated Short term, Long term, and Fire Weather discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

A trough of low pressure at the surface will move east across
western Kansas overnight as an upper ridge axis crosses the
Central Plains. Southwesterly winds across western Kansas will
decrease after sunset but still range from 10 to 15 mph. Based on
the boundary level winds overnight along with the warming expected
in the boundary layer the lows tonight are expected to fall back
mainly into the 40 to 45 degree range.

On Tuesday a trough of low pressure will redevelop and deepen over
eastern Colorado as a cold front drops south across the Northern
Plains into Nebraska. Wind speeds across western Kansas will
increase into the 15 to 25 mph range by mid day based on the mean
mixed layer winds forecast by the NAM and GFS. Afternoon
temperatures should easily climb into the 80s given the 24 hour
850mb temperature change from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday. These
unseasonably warm temperatures when combined with afternoon dew
points ranging from 20 to 30 degrees along with gusty southwest
winds will result in favorable conditions for extreme fire
behavior. Have therefore upgraded the fire watch to a red flag
warning for Tuesday afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

On Tuesday night an upper level trough, which was located off the
coast of the pacific northwest earlier today, will cross the four
corners region as a surface cold front drops south out of Nebraska
and into northern Kansas. Models disagreeing on how far south this
surface boundary will move Tuesday night, however the GFS and
ECMWF were in good agreement focusing the better chances for
precipitation north of this front where mid level moisture,
frontogenesis and instability will be improving ahead of the
approaching upper level storm system. At this time confidence is
not high on which model may be more correct so am currently
leaning towards staying close to persistence with the timing of
the onset of precipitation during the day Wednesday. This trend
would continue to favor the further south solution of this mid
week upper level storm system. Surface frontal passage would also
be sooner than previously expected and given the tight surface
pressure gradient behind the cold front and 900mb to 850mb winds
forecast behind this front very windy conditions along with
falling afternoon temperatures will be possible, especially across
west central and north central Kansas.

Along with the increasing winds the chance for precipitation will
also be on the increase Wednesday afternoon as the upper low
begins to move out into the Central Plains. This precipitation
appears to begin as rain but by late day across northern Kansas
this precipitation will change over to all snow. Snow
accumulations across north central Kansas and portions of western
Kansas does appear likely but how much snowfall that is expected
at this time remains unclear given the uncertainty on exactly
where this frontogenetic band will be and how long it will linger
in any particular area. Based on the latest GFS and ECMWF snow
accumulations of up to two inches will be possible for areas
northwest of a Garden City to Larned line.

The wind and precipitation will taper off early Thursday as the
upper low lifts northeast as a surface ridge axis begins to build
into the West Central High Plains. A northwest to westerly down
slope flow will develop late week as another upper level
disturbance drops south out of British Columbia and into the
Pacific northwest. This will result in a brief warming trend
Thursday and Friday.

As this next system approaches the central Plains early this
weekend there will be another chance for precipitation along with
another cool down in temperatures. Freezing temperatures will be
returning for the Easter holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

A weak surface boundary will cross far western Kansas this
afternoon. Near this surface boundary the southwest winds will
average between 10 and 15 knots. Further east, near and east of a
Dodge City to Hays line, southwest winds will range from 15 to
near 20 knots at times this afternoon. These gusty southwest winds
will fall back to near 10 knots after sunset. BUFR soundings along
with the latest RAP and HRRR indicate VFR conditions over the next
24 hours.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

Tuesday temperatures will average around 25 degrees above the
seasonal normals for this time of year. Give these warm afternoon
temperatures and afternoon dew points ranging from 20 to 30
degrees will yield relative humidity values between 5 to 15
percent. These dry conditions when combined with a gusty southwest
wind of 15 to 25 mph will produce extreme fire weather conditions.
A red flag warning has been issued Tuesday afternoon. Any out door
burning should be avoided.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  85  44  57 /   0   0   0  30
GCK  40  85  40  53 /   0   0   0  40
EHA  48  86  42  56 /   0   0   0  40
LBL  45  85  43  60 /   0   0   0  40
HYS  41  83  44  54 /   0   0   0  50
P28  46  86  50  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Tuesday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

 1220 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

07Z water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low over the
northeastern Pacific with an upper level ridge downstream from the
desert southwest through the northern Rockies. This leaves northwest
flow over the central plains this morning. At the surface, a ridge
of high pressure was centered over east TX and a trough of low
pressure was gradually deepening across the northern high plains.

The forecast for today and tonight calls for dry weather to continue
as the northwest flow aloft does not appear to have any significant
waves within it. Additionally the surface ridge along the TX gulf
coast looks to slow down any low level moisture return as onshore
flow has yet to develop. Although the strengthening low pressure
system over the northern high plains will cause the pressure
gradient to become quite strong today causing winds to gust up to
35 MPH. It is not out of the question that the wind speeds could
flirt with wind advisory criteria this afternoon. But the pressure
gradient appears to fall just shy of what typically occurs when we
have wind advisory days. So will not issue one at this time but the
day shift will want to monitor trends today. Models mix the boundary
layer to around 875MB. With some warm air advection this should
cause highs to be in the 60s. With good insolation expected, went
with mid 60s to around 70 for highs today. Tonight`s temps should be
much more mild with the pressure gradient keeping the boundary layer
mixed. So lows are expected to be in the mid 40s with only some high
cirrus passing overhead.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

Upper trough over the Great Basin begins to deepen on Tuesday. In
turn southwesterly winds stronger upstream of the sfc low progged to
be centered over northwest KS by 00Z Wednesday. Portions of east
central KS may need a Wind Advisory as sustained speeds average in
the 25 to 30 mph with gusts in upwards of 40 mph. In addition to the
dry air mass in place, fire weather concerns remain for the
afternoon hours. Please see Fire Weather Discussion for more
information. Other main story for Tuesday is the warmth as h85 temps
may reach the lower 20C range, resulting in widespread lower 80s for
much of the area. As the cold front approaches north central Kansas
late afternoon Wednesday, the tightening pressure gradient and
compressional warming ahead of the boundary will likely see another
very warm afternoon as gusty southerly winds maximize at 20 to 30
mph sustained. Highs behind the front over north central KS are in
the lower 60s while low to upper 70s are expected elsewhere.
After the boundary passes through, temps quickly fall into the lower
30s Thursday morning. Thursdays readings in the upper 40s is the
only cool day for the week before southerly return flow recovers
highs into the 60s for the weekend. Lows are generally in the middle
to upper 30s.

Precip chances increase beginning Wednesday for areas north of
Interstate 70 as convergence enhances along the cold front. Track of
the sfc and parent low still varies between guidance with a decent
spread leading to lesser confidence in precipitation occurring,
especially south of Interstate 70. Northern areas near the Nebraska
border have consistently seen the better lift with the upper low
focusing towards Nebraska so have increased pops to likely Wednesday
evening into Thursday as the upper low phases as it exits northeast.
QPF amounts are still variable this far out between a tenth to half
of an inch, locally higher. Main concern is the presence of weak
elevated instability during the day Wednesday lending to a mention
of isolated thunder. As the system organizes Wednesday evening,
better chances for thunder shift further east into MO. Also noted
the colder air trending a bit faster than yesterday, dropping
profilers below freezing over north central KS by midnight. It
appears rain mixed snow is possible for the entire CWA by sunrise
Thursday with a transition to snow over north central KS. Amounts if
any would be minor or none due to warm ground temps. Next system
impacts the CWA Saturday with rain being the primary precip type.
Latest GFS and ECMWF still vary the speed and timing of the system
so have maintained low pops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. With a strong low
level jet in place the boundary layer may only partially decouple
overnight tonight especially at MHK/TOP. This means between the
periods of occasional gusts low level wind shear will be possible
mainly between 3 to 8 am.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

The warm and windy conditions today are expected to lead to extreme
fire danger today and will upgrade the watch to a red flag warning.
The winds appear to obviously meet the criteria for a warning. The
main concern, as is usually the case, is the humidity. Since there
does not appear to be a strong surge of low level moisture from the
gulf yet, have generally gone with the dryer RAP and GFS solutions
for dewpoint temps. This gives me minimum RH values between 20 and
25 percent. While not exactly meeting criteria, feel like this is
close enough given our tendency to not get the RH values low enough.
Will keep the warning going into this evening as the southwesterly
winds look to remain strong past sunset. The thinking is this should
give the boundary layer RH a little more time to recover to around
40 percent before ending the warning.

On Tuesday, deep mixing within the boundary layer up to 700 mb is
possible, mixing RH values into the lower to middle 20s for most
of northeast Kansas. Winds are expected to be at 25 to 30 mph
sustained over east central KS through early evening. Confidence
is higher in the drier air being realized in addition to the
strong winds. Have decided to continue with the Fire Weather
Watch, likely needing a warning later today.

Wednesday also shows elevated fire concerns with the cold front and
the drier airmass entering north central Kansas by late afternoon.
Depending on where the cold front is positioned by late afternoon,
areas along and ahead of it show deeper mixing with southerly winds
at 25 to 30 mph sustained. RH values are forecast in the lower 20s
for areas along the Flint Hills and points eastward. Additional fire
headlines are likely needed in future forecasts.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Sanders
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters/Bowen




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

 1216 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

At 12z Monday a 500mb ridge axis extended from the Four Corners
Region to Alberta. An upper level trough/low was located off the
coast of the Pacific Northwest. Across the Central and Northern
Rockies a westerly flow was present at the 700mb and 500mb level.
Along the lee of the Rockies a trough of low pressure extended
from eastern Montana to eastern Colorado. 850mb temperatures along
this trough axis ranged from +10C to +14C.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

A strong upper level ridge extended from Alberta/Saskatchewan
into the central Rockies early this morning. Short range models
continue to show this ridge spread eastward through today and
tonight and flattening out with time. A broad trough of low
pressure at the surface will continue to slowly deepen from the
western Dakotas into eastern Colorado through tonight. Low level
warm advection was ongoing early this morning and will continue
through today with 850 millibar temperatures climbing back up into
the mid teens to low twenties celsius from south central into
southwest Kansas, respectively. This should yield high temperatures
ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s today. The warm advection
pattern continues into tonight. This will result in even warmer
overnight lows generally in the 40s by Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

An upper level shortwave trough currently off the coast of northern
California will be moving onshore over the western states on Tuesday
while upper level flow becomes fairly zonal over the central High
Plains. Deeper atmospheric mixing will result in breezy conditions
along with highs well up into the 80s.

On Wednesday the upper system continues to track into the central
Plains with a closed low developing and moving out roughly across
northwest Kansas. There is a little uncertainty in the track of the
low as the 00z ECMWF shows it tracking through west central Kansas.
The cold front will be pushing south across the area during the
day Wednesday. The best chances for precipitation still appear to
be along and north of I-70 but will maintain high chance pops from
the Scott City area to Hays with decreasing chances farther south.
Any precipitation should be liquid during the day but colder air
pushing into the area late in the day into Wednesday evening could
bring a mix or changeover to snow. Any snow accumulations appear
to be minor at this time. As the surface low pushes east during
the day, the models show fairly strong winds developing behind the
cold front. Model 850 millibar winds increase into the 40-50 knot
range during the afternoon. For now have ramped up winds considerably
higher than the going forecast. If this trend continues, headlines
for high wind may be warranted.

The upper system heads east out of the High Plains Wednesday night.
Any lingering light rain or light snow will be ending during the
night. Thursday and Friday will see a short lived warming trend as
500 millibar heights build over the region and low level warm
advection redevelops. Another shortwave trough is progged to dive
into the central CONUS by the upcoming weekend with another chance
for rain, or possibly light snow, for western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

A weak surface boundary will cross far western Kansas this
afternoon. Near this surface boundary the southwest winds will
average between 10 and 15 knots. Further east, near and east of a
Dodge City to Hays line, southwest winds will range from 15 to
near 20 knots at times this afternoon. These gusty southwest winds
will fall back to near 10 knots after sunset. BUFR soundings along
with the latest RAP and HRRR indicate VFR conditions over the next
24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

A dry airmass and increasing winds today will create elevated
wildfire concerns across parts of the area. Strongest winds will
be over south central Kansas but it appears that dewpoints in
that area will be high enough to preclude any fire weather
headlines today.

On Tuesday, drier air spreads across all of southwest and central
Kansas. Winds will be a little stronger and model solutions have
the stronger winds and deeper mixing extending well through central
and south central Kansas. Will keep the current Fire Weather Watch
intact and will also extend it to include areas along and north of
Highway 96.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  45  86  44 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  81  40  85  40 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  82  48  85  42 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  81  45  87  43 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  76  41  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
P28  73  46  88  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 151 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES.
PASSING SHRTWV/ATTENDANT COLD FROPA IS TRIGGERING SOME SCT SN
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL DRYNESS OF
THE AIRMASS PER LOCAL 00Z RAOBS AND ONLY SCT CLDS PER STLT IMAGERY
IS RESTRICTING THE COVERAGE OF THE SN SHOWERS ALONG THE FNT. DESPITE
SOME CHILLY AIR UPSTREAM IN NW ONTARIO...WHERE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS -17C
AT YPL...THAT IS FOLLOWING THE FROPA...STLT IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY SCT
LK EFFECT CLDS OVER LK SUP WITH VERY DRY AIR NOTED ON THE 00Z YPL
RAOB. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...THERE IS A SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE
NRN ROCKIES ON THE TOP OF THE WRN RDG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LES CHCS THIS MRNG AND
THEN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WAA SN TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.

TDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME COLD AIR WL BE STREAMING ACRS MAINLY THE E HALF
OF LK SUP...H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO FALL NO LOWER THAN ABOUT -13 TO
-14C OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS...
MARGINAL H85 TEMPS...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV AND WEAK LLVL CNVGC FCSDT...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLD-SCT SN
SHOWERS OVER THE E THIS MRNG. OPTED TO REMOVE ALL POPS OVER THE FAR
W GIVEN EVEN WEAKER COOLING FCST THERE. ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG
AXIS AND DIURNAL HEATING WL END ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE E HALF.
DESPITE THE INFLUX OF RATHER DRY LLVL AIR...EXPECT INCRSG MID/HI
CLDS RELATED TO WAA AHEAD OF FALLING MSLP IN THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF
SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.

TNGT...MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A BAND
OF SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-290K SFCS /ABOUT
H85-675/ SETTING UP OVER THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF A WARM FNT ORIENTED
IN THE UPR MIDWEST OUT AHEAD OF A LO PRES THAT IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR
MINNEAPOLIS BY 12Z TUE. COMBINATION OF THIS WAA/ACCOMPANYING DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/BAND OF MID LVL FGEN/SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF
100KT H3 JET MAX STREAKING THRU THE UPR MIDWEST WL CAUSE AN AREA OF
SN TO DVLP W-E. AXIS OF SHARPEST FCST FGEN APPEARS TO FAVOR THE
NCENTRAL CWA FOR THE HEAVIER SN. CONCERNS INCLUDE HOW QUICKLY LLVL
DRY AIR CAN BE OVERCOME AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER DEEP LYR FORCING TO
THE S. WITH THE LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...TENDED TO KEEP POPS/QPF A
BIT LOWER IN THE EVNG. FCST H7-75 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ARND 2.5G/KG
WOULD FAVOR 2-3 INCHES OF SN IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD WHEN THE SHARPER
FORCING/UVV ARE FCST...BUT TENDED CLOSER TO ABOUT 2 INCHES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF THE LLVL DRY AIR AND EXPECTED SN/WATER
RATIOS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 15:1. FCST THERMAL FIELDS ALSO INDICATE
SOME RA COULD MIX WITH THE SN OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL...WHERE PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTEST FARTHER FM THE AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE OVER THE COMING WEEK...WITH A BAND OF
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEARING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A SWATH OF SNOW TIED TO A LAYER OF LOW-
LEVEL FGEN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CWA AWAY
FROM THE WI BORDER IN THE MORNING. SEE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR
INFORMATION REGARDING THE ONSET OF THIS SNOW. AN EVENT TOTAL OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO E
TO NE WIND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
SNOWFALL...TRAVEL FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE SOMEWHAT
HAZARDOUS. WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIX WITH RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT GIVEN EFFECTS FROM DYNAMIC
COOLING...HAVE FAVORED A SCENARIO WITH MORE OF A MIX THAN A COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AWAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. THERE...THE
SNOW MAY TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AS DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS
AND CLOUD LAYER MIN TEMPS RISE TO -6 TO -8C. LOWERING TEMPS AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECTING IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL TRANSITION THE PRECIP BACK TO FLURRIES FOR THE
IMMEDIATE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON THE EVOLUTION OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CANADIAN GEM...ECMWF..AND EVEN SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BRING A SLOWER-MOVING AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS/NAM REMAIN FASTER WITH A MORE NEUTRAL
TILT. THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE MUDDLED AS THE PHASING OF A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ENHANCES THE SYSTEM. ALL SOLUTIONS BRING AT
LEAST SOME SNOW TO PORTIONS OF UPPER MI...BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING...INTENSITY...AND NW EXTENT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE BETTER
MODEL CLUSTERING (CANADIAN/ECMWF) WHILE KEEPING IN MIND THAT A NW
SHIFT IN LINE WITH THE GFS/NAM CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN ALMOST NO AGREEMENT BY
THIS POINT OTHER THAN WITH THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS/CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING A ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIP SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH THE GFS ONCE AGAIN FAVORING THE
QUICKER SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

WITH INFLUX OF LLVL DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING CNDN HI PRES BLDG INTO THE
UPR LKS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THRU THE DAY DESPITE
INCRSG MID/HI CLDS. SCATTERED SHALLOW CU WILL PREVAIL AS WELL.
EXPECT A BAND OF SN TO THE N OF A STNRY FNT IN THE UPR MIDWEST TO
OVERSPREAD UPR MI TNGT...WITH LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR AND VSBYS INTO
THE IFR RANGE CONTINUING INTO TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

WITH A HI PRES RIDGE MOVING OVER THE UPPER LAKES TODAY...EXPECT
DIMINISHING WINDS UNDER 15-20 KTS. UNDER A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND LO PRES CENTERS RUNNING ALONG A LO
PRES TROUGH IN THE LOWER LAKES...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL PREVAIL
TUE THROUGH THU. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN WITH A HI PRES RIDGE ON
FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 105 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHWEST ND ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE US BELIEVE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE REACHING THE GROUND NOW...SO WE SPREAD OUR
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST TO THE HIGHWAY
2 CORRIDOR FROM WILLISTON TO MINOT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHER-
WISE...THE GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK...THOUGH WE LOWERED
THE MINIMUM HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY MORE IN SOUTHWESTERN ND USING RECENT
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR OUTPUT AND IN RESPECT TO THE OBSERVED HUMIDITY
AT BAKER...MT AS OF MIDDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

ALL WE DID WITH THIS UPDATE WAS BLEND OBSERVATIONS INTO THE HOURLY
FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 17 UTC...AND NUDGE AFTERNOON WIND GRIDS TO
THE LAMP GUIDANCE. THAT PUTS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND RIGHT ON THE EDGE
OF RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH FOR ABOUT 3
HOURS...BUT SINCE IT/S MARGINALLY INTO THE DURATION CRITERIA FOR A
TWO TO FOUR COUNTY AREA...WE WILL STILL HOLD OFF ISSUANCE OF A RED
FLAG HEADLINE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...RADAR ECHOES IN THE BOWBELLS
AREA AT 15 UTC ARE LIKELY CLOUDS AND NOT PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND...BUT CONTINUED SLOW SATURATION WILL LIKELY ENABLE VIRGA TO
EVENTUALLY REACH THE SURFACE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL ND BY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC. STILL A BIT OF SPREAD AMONGST
THE 06-10 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH ALONG
THE WARM FRONT ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...DID BLEND TO A CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD ARCH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BE NEAR BISMARCK AND MANDAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST AND ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM A
PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO OUR REGION.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TODAY ALLOWING MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSES TO TRACK
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS PVA...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS WITH A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHERN ND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH.
FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUD BASES RATHER HIGH AT AROUND 10K FEET AGL
SOUTH OF MY NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH MOSTLY VIRGA.

UP TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO FOR
POTENTIAL TRAVEL HAZARDS.

SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NEAR A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
COOL HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD. ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IF
ANY...ARE EXPECTED TUE-EARLY WED TIMEFRAME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES THEN MAINLY SNOW AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AS COLDER
AIR IS PULLED SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.

MODEL SPREADS INCREASE FOR NEXT WEEKEND LEADING TO ELEVATED
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND THEN SAG BACK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING....WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS LIKELY IN
ITS WAKE...FIRST OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND AFTER 03 UTC AND THEN TO A
KISN-KBIS-KJMS LINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO GUSTY WEST WINDS...HIGHS
IN THE 60S F...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 PERCENT. THE TIME
DURATION FOR THIS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CJS
FIRE WEATHER...NH/CJS




FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE



 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER THE U.P. BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ONLY A
CU FIELD EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ALSO SPILLING OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST...AHEAD OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE DAKOTAS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT...LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES IS THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE U.P. BORDER WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH AS RATHER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES OVER THE TOP.
BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF FGEN-INDUCED PRECIP OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
INCREASE LATE IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  DATA CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE U.P.
BORDER...WHILE AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A RHINELANDER TO STURGEON
BAY LINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.  SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THOUGH...AS A BROKEN MID-DECK ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...AND LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH.  LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
WI...BUT MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL PERSIST FARTHER NORTH OVER FAR NORTHERN
WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA.  AS A RESULT...THINK LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SOME DIMINISHING IS
LIKELY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURS OUT.  ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL
BE UNDER A HALF INCH.  AS CLOUD BASES LOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES COULD PERSIST.  FARTHER
SOUTH...TIGHTENING OF THE FRONT AND INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD RECIPE FOR LOWER CLOUDS TO MAKE A SURGE
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW SPRINKLES COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI LATE.  SHOULD SEE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS DUE TO
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH.  HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID OR UPPER 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

PRIMARY CONCERNS CONTINUES WITH A SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WHICH LIKELY IMPACT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
MID WEEK. TYPICAL OF THESE SPRING/WINTER SYSTEMS...VERY DYNAMIC
AND ALSO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL RANGE FROM THE NORTHERN 12Z GFS
TRACK WHICH INCLUDES HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...TO THE
SOUTHERN ECMWF 12Z SOLUTION WHICH AFFECTS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CONSENSUS AND REST OF SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTS THE HEAVY SNOW BAND SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO WAUSAUKEE LINE.
THESE SEPARATE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT WITH THERE
PARTICULAR SOLUTIONS WITH PERHAPS THE 12Z NAM SHOWING A SHIFT
NORTH.

ONE REASON FOR THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS IS THE SOUTHWARD PUSH
OF A BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATES A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH FROM THE WARMER AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH.
SOME PROGS BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN ALONG THIS FGEN REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM FOCUSES A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACKED
OFF THIS PCPN. SO PERHAPS SATURATION ISSUES MAY PLAGUE THIS SYSTEM
INITIALLY.

THE MAIN SURFACE AND 850 LOW TRACK OVER THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE MAIN PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN THESE SYSTEM TRACKS STILL PRODUCING A DIFFERENCE RANGE OF
ABOUT 150 MILES...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH
COUPLET UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WILL BE WITH ENHANCED WITH A
GRADUALLY DESCENDING SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN INTO THURSDAY...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE ANTICIPATED RANGE OF 6-11.
THE MORE NORTHERN GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX VARIETY AT
THE ONSET FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH WOULD HOLD DOWN
SNOW AMOUNTS. DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL USE
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW AND TURNING TO ALL SNOW.

IN ADDITION TO DETERMINING THE HEAVY SNOW AXIS...OTHER ISSUES
WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AMOUNTS INCLUDE ADDING THUNDER
AND SLEET IF THIS BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKS MORE
NORTH. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ADVECT DRIER AIR FORM NORTH TO HOLD
DOWN PCPN AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO COVER THE SYSTEM SNOW
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ITS POSSIBLE AN
ADVISORY OR SPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INITIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LATE WEEK...TIMING ISSUES WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  AS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE FRONT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
WI LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH UP
TO AN INCH RIGHT ALONG THE U.P. BORDER.  ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING.  BUT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH AND
NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP...CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO MVFR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ038>040-045-048>050.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ018>020-030-031-035>037.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ021-022-073-074.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC