Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/20/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1143 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
BAND OF SNOW IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PUEBLO AREA...WHILE
SNOW UPSTREAM HAS LIGHTENED UP CONSIDERABLY AS FORCING FROM THE
UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING EASTWARD. REVISED POP GRIDS TO CAPTURE THE
BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES.
AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES WITH
THIS BAND. HRRR SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH KEEPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
...WINTER RETURNS FOR A DAY FOR PARTS OF THE PLAINS...
CURRENTLY...
AT 3 AM...EAST-WEST BAND OF SNOW...MDT IN INTENSITY PER RADAR...WERE
LOCATED ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY. LIGHTER SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS THE
REST OF EL PASO COUNTY...AND SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED INTO N
PUEBLO COUNTY AS VERY LIGHT SNOW WAS NOTED OUTSIDE THE WX OFFICE
HERE IN PUEBLO. SNOW ALSO NOTED IN TELLER COUNTY PER RADAR AND
WEBCAMS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS...A LOW OVC DECK WAS
NOTED. INTERIOR MTNS AND VALLEYS FOR THE MOST PART WERE
DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS LIKELY SOME SNOW FALLING AT HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OVER THE C MTNS PER RADAR.
A 2NDRY COLD FRONT WAS APPARENT IN THE RADAR DATA AND IT EXTENDED
FROM DEN TO LIC AND THEN INTO KIOWA COUNTY. IT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME.
TODAY...
MOST SNOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE WILL FALL ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION.
TOWARDS SUNRISE EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR E
PLAINS...AND THE SNOW IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY
START TO DROP SOUTH AS THE 2NDRY FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE S MTNS.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WILL BE DURING THE MID
MORNING TIME PERIOD. BY THIS AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE FROM THE PALMER DVD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS WALSENBURG...AND THIS IS WHERE I DREW UP THE
GREATEST POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH N EL PASO COUNTY CAREFULLY AS BANDING PRECIP
HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IF THESE BANDS
PERSIST...THEN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD
LOCALLY REACH INTO WARNING CRITERIA.
THE PLAINS WILL BE OVC THE ENTIRE DAY AND IT WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN N
EL PASO COUNTY.
OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS AND VALLEYS...IT SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY.
TONIGHT...
BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS
INTERFACE...WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE L20S
MOST PLAINS WITH SOME TEENS IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEENS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS/MTNS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
...HIGH FIRE DANGER EARLY NEXT WEEK...MORE SNOW AND COLD POSSIBLE
LATER...
THE SPRING WEATHER-COASTER IS HERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL STILL BE COLD WITH EVEN A FEW
SPOTTY FLURRIES NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLY...BUT THEN A NICE WARMING
TREND SETS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE
AGAIN.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE GRIPS OF
ANOTHER WINDY AND DRY PERIOD. THE CURRENT SNOWFALL MAY HAVE SOME
IMPACT IN DETERRING THE FIRE DANGER IN PARTS OF THE AREA...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND HOW MUCH IS LEFT BY THE TIME MONDAY ROLLS
AROUND. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT ANY POSITIVE IMPACT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED AS SHORT TURN AROUND FUELS LIKE DEAD GRASSES TEND TO DRY OUT
VERY QUICKLY...MINIMIZING THE TEMPORARY WETTING EFFECT OF THE
SNOWFALL. SO...LIKELY DEALING WITH FIRE CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN UP THE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS A BIT WHERE THE SNOW IS
ABSENT. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT THEY BECOME
QUITE STRONG ON TUESDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DAY OF EXTREME
FIRE DANGER. FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THEY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...WHILE HIGH FIRE DANGER
IMPACTS MOST AREAS...WIND-DRIVEN SNOW WILL START MOVING BACK INTO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MAKES ITS WAY EAST FROM THE PACIFIC.
WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE WEATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY...BUT THE REPRIEVE LOOKS SHORT-LIVED. THE DAY LOOKS TO
START OUT WITH JUST A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. BUT...BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM
STARTS DIGGING INTO NEW MEXICO...WITH PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW
AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN...DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES WIDESPREAD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW. THE SNOW THEN LINGERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH TIME OUT OF THE STATE.
HARD TO SAY WHAT THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKE AT THIS DISTANT
RANGE...BUT IT HAS POTENTIAL. THE STORM...ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK...WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. BUT AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL.
PATTERN APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE MUCH MORE ACTIVE FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE MONTH THAN IT WAS FOR THE FIRST. FINGERS CROSSED. NO ONE
WANTS AN EARLY FIRE SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
MVFR TO IFR VIS/CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...AFFECTING
THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS REFORMING NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS MAY SPREAD BACK INTO THE KCOS TERMINAL DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...TAKING CIGS BACK DOWN INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY. SNOW WILL END AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 00Z...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT BOTH KCOS
AND KPUB...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS
AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND FROM A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER 13Z FOR KCOS WHICH
SHOULD ERODE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SOUTH OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...CIGS AT KPUB WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR SNOWFALL...ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...THOUGH KPUB COULD PICK
UP AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
KALS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
15-25 KTS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE DURING THE EVENING.-KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ081-
082-084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
908 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
BAND OF SNOW IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PUEBLO AREA...WHILE
SNOW UPSTREAM HAS LIGHTENED UP CONSIDERABLY AS FORCING FROM THE
UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING EASTWARD. REVISED POP GRIDS TO CAPTURE THE
BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES.
AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES WITH
THIS BAND. HRRR SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH KEEPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
...WINTER RETURNS FOR A DAY FOR PARTS OF THE PLAINS...
CURRENTLY...
AT 3 AM...EAST-WEST BAND OF SNOW...MDT IN INTENSITY PER RADAR...WERE
LOCATED ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY. LIGHTER SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS THE
REST OF EL PASO COUNTY...AND SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED INTO N
PUEBLO COUNTY AS VERY LIGHT SNOW WAS NOTED OUTSIDE THE WX OFFICE
HERE IN PUEBLO. SNOW ALSO NOTED IN TELLER COUNTY PER RADAR AND
WEBCAMS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS...A LOW OVC DECK WAS
NOTED. INTERIOR MTNS AND VALLEYS FOR THE MOST PART WERE
DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS LIKELY SOME SNOW FALLING AT HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OVER THE C MTNS PER RADAR.
A 2NDRY COLD FRONT WAS APPARENT IN THE RADAR DATA AND IT EXTENDED
FROM DEN TO LIC AND THEN INTO KIOWA COUNTY. IT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME.
TODAY...
MOST SNOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE WILL FALL ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION.
TOWARDS SUNRISE EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR E
PLAINS...AND THE SNOW IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY
START TO DROP SOUTH AS THE 2NDRY FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE S MTNS.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WILL BE DURING THE MID
MORNING TIME PERIOD. BY THIS AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE FROM THE PALMER DVD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS WALSENBURG...AND THIS IS WHERE I DREW UP THE
GREATEST POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH N EL PASO COUNTY CAREFULLY AS BANDING PRECIP
HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IF THESE BANDS
PERSIST...THEN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD
LOCALLY REACH INTO WARNING CRITERIA.
THE PLAINS WILL BE OVC THE ENTIRE DAY AND IT WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN N
EL PASO COUNTY.
OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS AND VALLEYS...IT SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY.
TONIGHT...
BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS
INTERFACE...WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE L20S
MOST PLAINS WITH SOME TEENS IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEENS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS/MTNS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
...HIGH FIRE DANGER EARLY NEXT WEEK...MORE SNOW AND COLD POSSIBLE
LATER...
THE SPRING WEATHER-COASTER IS HERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL STILL BE COLD WITH EVEN A FEW
SPOTTY FLURRIES NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLY...BUT THEN A NICE WARMING
TREND SETS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE
AGAIN.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE GRIPS OF
ANOTHER WINDY AND DRY PERIOD. THE CURRENT SNOWFALL MAY HAVE SOME
IMPACT IN DETERRING THE FIRE DANGER IN PARTS OF THE AREA...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND HOW MUCH IS LEFT BY THE TIME MONDAY ROLLS
AROUND. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT ANY POSITIVE IMPACT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED AS SHORT TURN AROUND FUELS LIKE DEAD GRASSES TEND TO DRY OUT
VERY QUICKLY...MINIMIZING THE TEMPORARY WETTING EFFECT OF THE
SNOWFALL. SO...LIKELY DEALING WITH FIRE CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN UP THE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS A BIT WHERE THE SNOW IS
ABSENT. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT THEY BECOME
QUITE STRONG ON TUESDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DAY OF EXTREME
FIRE DANGER. FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THEY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...WHILE HIGH FIRE DANGER
IMPACTS MOST AREAS...WIND-DRIVEN SNOW WILL START MOVING BACK INTO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MAKES ITS WAY EAST FROM THE PACIFIC.
WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE WEATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY...BUT THE REPRIEVE LOOKS SHORT-LIVED. THE DAY LOOKS TO
START OUT WITH JUST A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. BUT...BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM
STARTS DIGGING INTO NEW MEXICO...WITH PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW
AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN...DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES WIDESPREAD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW. THE SNOW THEN LINGERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH TIME OUT OF THE STATE.
HARD TO SAY WHAT THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKE AT THIS DISTANT
RANGE...BUT IT HAS POTENTIAL. THE STORM...ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK...WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. BUT AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL.
PATTERN APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE MUCH MORE ACTIVE FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE MONTH THAN IT WAS FOR THE FIRST. FINGERS CROSSED. NO ONE
WANTS AN EARLY FIRE SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
KCOS...PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SNOW/BR. PERIODS OF LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY HEAVIER SNOWFALL.
KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT 10 UTC...BUT CIGS EXPECTED TO
LOWER TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH SN- DEVELOPING. EXPECT MAIN MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURNING
TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT DUE TO CIGS/SN-. WE MAY SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TOWARDS SUNRISE SATURDAY.
KALS WILL SEE VFR NEXT 24H.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ081-
082-084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1126 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
NEW 00Z NAM AND 01Z HRRR BOTH HAVE VERY LITTLE PRECIP SOUTH OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH 12Z...SO HAVE BEGUN TO CUT BACK
OVERNIGHT POPS OVER THE PLAINS AND ALONG I25 FROM COLORADO
SPRINGS SOUTHWARD. ALSO MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO SURFACE
WINDS TO CAPTURE PERIOD OF NE GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS OVER THE PLAINS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
...WINTER WILL REVISIT SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
NEXT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES OF ID/WY/MT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...SFC FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH EL PASO COUNTY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST CO IS IN THE 60S. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH LOW CLOUDS
FILLING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SNOW BREAKING
OUT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS THE ASSOC UPPER JET TRANSLATES IN. MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE
SYSTEM STAYS A LITTLE OFF TO THE NORTH...WITH MAJORITY OF THE
FORCING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO CONSISTING OF SHALLOW UPSLOPE.
HOWEVER...PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH IS IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO
FORCING WITH THE UPPER JET...SHOULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF STEADY
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL...ACCUMULATIONS DO
NOT LOOK THAT HEAVY...BUT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES...COULD SEE SOME
IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
COLORADO SPRINGS...NORTHWARD TO MONUMENT HILL AS TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE LOWER 20S AND ROADS BEGIN TO ICE UP. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY STILL LOOK ON
TRACK...WITH PRIMARILY 2-5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY...AND 3 TO 7 FOR TELLER COUNTY. SNOW WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE
PUEBLO AREA AND MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF NARROW RIBBON OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE PUSH OF DEEPER COLD AIR...BUT SOUNDINGS QUICKLY
SATURATE DEEPLY ENOUGH FOR A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 MAY BE MOST AT RISK
FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...BUT FOR NOW MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MORE THAN A BRIEF 1-2 HR WINDOW FOR SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 40S...AND WITH
ROAD SFCS CARRYING SOME RESIDUAL WARMTH ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...THINK THAT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL BE MINIMAL.
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO PICK UP SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
SPREADING IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT(1-
2" RANGE)...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
SHALLOW TO PUSH OVER INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WILL BE THE WARMEST ON
FRIDAY...WITH KALS SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S...COMPARED TO THE
PLAINS WHICH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. -KT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT MODERATES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AS EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
EVENING...AS LIFT AND MOISTURE WANE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z AND THE
18Z RUNS OF THE NAM CONTINUE TO PRINT OUT QPF ACROSS THE PLAINS WELL
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS COULD BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUE AND HAVE POPS ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS AT TAD ACROSS THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND BACK TO AT AND
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
AHEAD OF EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AS A MINOR SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL TO AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD. COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS MORE ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
KCOS WLL SEE CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH
SNOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THE INTENSITY OF SNOW WILL AT TIMES
RESULT IN IFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. KPUB SHOULD SEE CIGS
LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON KPUB COULD SEE SOME RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPS GET. THEN IN THE
EVENING HOURS AS TEMPS COOL THE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOULD INCREASE
AND CIGS/VSBY COULD LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. KALS IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ081-
082-084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
740 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF CAPE COD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK. THERE IS A BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH OVER LONG ISLAND AS SEEN ON THE RADAR WHICH COULD BE A SEA
BREEZE. HAVE NOTICED DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE...WHILE THEY REMAIN IN THE TEENS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
SHORE. ALSO...THERE IS A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. OBSERVATIONS
ALONG COASTAL CONNECTICUT ALSO SHOW A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THINKING
THAT THIS WILL LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN THE SYNOPTIC WINDS
WILL COME BACK. THE HRRR HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE.
OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE
EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL BE NORTH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD STAY
SOUTH ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP FROM ENCROACHING INTO SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN TO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE.
SPRING OFFICIALLY ARRIVES AT 12:30 AM EDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH
AS IT DIGS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND THAT
LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALL 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE LOW BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST...
AND ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...SFC
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
DEVELOPS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...EXPECTING SFC TEMPS TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING DUE TO THE WET BULB EFFECT. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP
TO CHANGE TO PLAIN SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN
SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
TRACK RIGHT AROUND THE 40/70 BENCHMARK MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DEPARTING. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE FORCED
OFFSHORE AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 30-40 KT
LLJ SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO FALL
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AS PRECIP WRAPS AROUND THE BACK OF THE LOW.
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR EASTERN SUFFOLK AND NEW LONDON
COUNTIES...WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 4-7 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AND
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIDDLESEX...WESTERN SUFFOLK...AND
NASSAU COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOR NYC AND COASTAL NJ...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN 1-3 INCHES. PARTS OF INTERIOR NE NJ AND
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR 2.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR COASTAL AREAS...AS ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE
BUMPED UP TO WATCHES/WARNINGS IF HEAVIER BANDS ROTATE FARTHER
WEST.
STORM DEPARTS ON MONDAY...AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND IT.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER A MILDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND HIGHS IN NYC AND
URBANIZED AREAS OF NE NJ WILL TOP OFF AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...KEEPING THE
AREA DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND HEAD EAST
PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE AREA...AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW THERE IS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE TIMING AND
EXACT LOCATIONS ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS.
THEREAFTER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING AS THE 12Z GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.
ALSO...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO TALK ABOUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE GFS DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES OFF SHORE...AND THUS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH MUCH MORE RAINFALL THAN THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS WELL DEPENDING ON
WHAT SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WE WILL BE ON. IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THURSDAY MAY BE THE MOST PROBLEMATIC AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES. AS AN EXAMPLE...THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS A RANGE
FROM 46 TO 64 FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KISP ON THURSDAY. OTHER
THAN THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE AT LEAST ON WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WE WILL BE ON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY
VFR THRU 18Z. THEREAFTER...MVFR OR IFR MAY DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL
TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW TOWARD EVENING...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST.
AS FOR WINDS...ANY REMNANTS OF A SEA BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THEN WINDS
INCREASE TO 10-15G15-20KT OUT OF THE NE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY MID MORNING...AS
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TOWARDS THE ENE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...NYC/LONG ISLAND/CT TERMINALS PROBABLY WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SNOW...WITH LIFR POSSIBLE EASTERN TERMINALS.
KSWF AND POSSIBLY KHPN MIGHT NOT GET ANY SNOW...AND COULD STAY
VFR. N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AT EASTERN
TERMINALS.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER EARLY...OTHERWISE
VFR. NW-WNW WINDS G25-30KT LIKELY.
.TUESDAY...VFR. W-SW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER...WITH SW-WSW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR. S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN PASS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SUNDAY BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT...AND EXPECTING SCA CONDS TO
DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON MONDAY. WILL EXTEND THE SCA
THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON ON ALL OTHER WATERS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
THAT FOR NOW.
WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS...COMING BELOW 25 KT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID MORNING OR
THEREAFTER ON TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...25 KT GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING.
WAVES WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...5 FT WAVES
MAY BE PRESENT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF 0.1 TO 0.6 INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE
STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS FALLING IN THE
FORM OF SNOW...NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE
HEAVIEST QPF WILL FALL OVER E SUFFOLK AND SE CT...AND LESS THAN
0.1 INCH QPF POSSIBLE FOR NW PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MOST PLACES SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR CTZ008-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR CTZ007-011.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR NYZ079-081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR NYZ078-080-177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MPS
NEAR TERM...JP/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JP/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JP/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
658 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF CAPE COD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK. THERE IS A BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH OVER LONG ISLAND AS SEEN ON THE RADAR WHICH COULD BE A SEA
BREEZE. HAVE NOTICED DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE...WHILE THEY REMAIN IN THE TEENS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
SHORE. ALSO...THERE IS A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. OBSERVATIONS
ALONG COASTAL CONNECTICUT ALSO SHOW A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THINKING
THAT THIS WILL LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN THE SYNOPTIC WINDS
WILL COME BACK. THE HRRR HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE.
OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE
EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL BE NORTH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD STAY
SOUTH ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP FROM ENCROACHING INTO SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN TO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE.
SPRING OFFICIALLY ARRIVES AT 12:30 AM EDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH
AS IT DIGS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND THAT
LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALL 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE LOW BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST...
AND ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...SFC
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
DEVELOPS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...EXPECTING SFC TEMPS TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING DUE TO THE WET BULB EFFECT. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP
TO CHANGE TO PLAIN SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN
SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
TRACK RIGHT AROUND THE 40/70 BENCHMARK MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DEPARTING. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE FORCED
OFFSHORE AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 30-40 KT
LLJ SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO FALL
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AS PRECIP WRAPS AROUND THE BACK OF THE LOW.
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR EASTERN SUFFOLK AND NEW LONDON
COUNTIES...WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 4-7 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AND
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIDDLESEX...WESTERN SUFFOLK...AND
NASSAU COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOR NYC AND COASTAL NJ...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN 1-3 INCHES. PARTS OF INTERIOR NE NJ AND
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR 2.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR COASTAL AREAS...AS ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE
BUMPED UP TO WATCHES/WARNINGS IF HEAVIER BANDS ROTATE FARTHER
WEST.
STORM DEPARTS ON MONDAY...AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND IT.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER A MILDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND HIGHS IN NYC AND
URBANIZED AREAS OF NE NJ WILL TOP OFF AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...KEEPING THE
AREA DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND HEAD EAST
PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE AREA...AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW THERE IS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE TIMING AND
EXACT LOCATIONS ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS.
THEREAFTER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING AS THE 12Z GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.
ALSO...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO TALK ABOUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE GFS DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES OFF SHORE...AND THUS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH MUCH MORE RAINFALL THAN THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS WELL DEPENDING ON
WHAT SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WE WILL BE ON. IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THURSDAY MAY BE THE MOST PROBLEMATIC AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES. AS AN EXAMPLE...THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS A RANGE
FROM 46 TO 64 FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KISP ON THURSDAY. OTHER
THAN THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE AT LEAST ON WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WE WILL BE ON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW/RAIN COULD DEVELOP AT KISP/KJFK 16-18Z
SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME.
NW WINDS UNDER 10KT AT KISP...SEABREEZE AT KJFK/CT TERMINALS AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE AT
KISP AND VERY LOW CHANCE AT KLGA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN NE
THROUGHOUT AT UNDER 10 KT BY MID-EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO
10-15G15-20KT OUT OF THE NE OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY
MID MORNING...AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TOWARDS THE ENE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...NYC/LONG ISLAND/CT TERMINALS PROBABLY
WILL SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SNOW...WITH LIFR POSSIBLE EASTERN
TERMINALS. KSWF AND POSSIBLY KHPN MIGHT NOT GET ANY SNOW...AND
COULD STAY VFR. N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AT
EASTERN TERMINALS.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER EARLY...OTHERWISE
VFR. NW-WNW WINDS G25-30KT LIKELY.
.TUESDAY...VFR. W-SW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER...WITH SW-WSW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR. S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN PASS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SUNDAY BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT...AND EXPECTING SCA CONDS TO
DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON MONDAY. WILL EXTEND THE SCA
THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON ON ALL OTHER WATERS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
THAT FOR NOW.
WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS...COMING BELOW 25 KT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID MORNING OR
THEREAFTER ON TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...25 KT GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING.
WAVES WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...5 FT WAVES
MAY BE PRESENT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF 0.1 TO 0.6 INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE
STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS FALLING IN THE
FORM OF SNOW...NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE
HEAVIEST QPF WILL FALL OVER E SUFFOLK AND SE CT...AND LESS THAN
0.1 INCH QPF POSSIBLE FOR NW PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MOST PLACES SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR CTZ008-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR CTZ007-011.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR NYZ079-081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR NYZ078-080-177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MPS
NEAR TERM...JP/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JP/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JP/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO
SUNDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN
PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A
GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THE SAME TIME. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
QUITE THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL HELP PREVENT THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION
SHIELD FROM LIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN FOR SOME
AREAS AT TIMES. ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HAS HELPED TO COOL THE
COLUMN MORE WHICH RESULTED IN SNOW MIXING IN OR EVEN A BRIEF
CHANGE TO SNOW. RADAR TRENDS AS OF 0130Z HAVE A BREAK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS, HOWEVER THERE IS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHWEST MOVING EASTWARD ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS WEAKER ATTM.
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
THE NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW BANDS OF 700-800 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE, TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE INITIAL WAVE
AND ITS LIFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT, THEREFORE
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF AS WELL. THE POPS
REFLECT THIS WITH A DECREASING TREND SOUTHWARD. FARTHER NORTH, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH EVEN THE CLOUDS THINNING
FOR A TIME.
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN.
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A MOS BLEND, HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURES MAY TEND TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ON SUNDAY, POPS WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD, WHICH BRINGS BETTER LIFT DEEPER INTO OUR
CWA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PERHAPS SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURE ISSUES ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FOR AWHILE,
HOWEVER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING OR MOVING INLAND SOME AS THE INCOMING
TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN MORE. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING, AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON IN NEW
JERSEY. IF THIS OCCURS, QUICKER COOLING WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW
OCCURRING. AS OF NOW, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE OTHER THAN TO ADD
MORE MIX/SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYS END.
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL SO UNLESS PRECIP FALLS HARD, THE SNOW LIKELY
WOULD JUST STICK MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES, CARS ETC. THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ITS TOUGH DURING THE DAY TO GET APPRECIABLE SNOW DUE
TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE UNLESS IT COMES DOWN HARD. THE BEST CHCS
ATTM FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW FALLING WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE
EVENING HOURS. MONDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH A BREEZY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW. CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UP TICK. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO ALL THE AREA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND
FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES...ITS BEEN VERY WARM SO FAR THIS MONTH...6 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW A BRIEF COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK BEFORE IT WARMS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END. FOR
REFERENCE, THE NORMALS FOR PHILLY DURING THE PERIOD ARE LOW TO MID
50S AND MID 30S. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE
WARMING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION...THIS EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES THREE PRECIPITATION
REFERENCES. THE FIRST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITTLE IF
ANY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE SECOND REFERENCE IS MIDWEEK ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. THE THIRD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME
WITH FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
WINDS...NORTH WINDS MAINLY 10 OR LESS SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING
NORTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY ON MONDAY. THE WINDS, 10 OR LESS, WILL
START TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THEY COULD GUST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEK.
IMPACTS...NOTHING WIDESPREAD SHAPING UP ATTM. WHILE WE COULD SEE
SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE SNOW, THEY SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ATTM, IMPACTS APPEAR THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. WE COULD SEE SOME MORNING SPRING FOG LATER IN
THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT IT`T TOO SOON TO DETERMINE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A TIME OF
MVFR CEILINGS SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL DURING THE REST OF THIS EVENING.
SOME MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THROUGH EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS MOSTLY SOUTH OF KPHL. KMIV AND KACY HAVE THE
GREATER CHANCE OF HAVING MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE VISIBILITY AS THE PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY OVERALL MAY BE RATHER LIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
HOWEVER FAVORING NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SUNDAY...VFR CEILINGS NEAR AND NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL OVERALL, WITH
LOWER CEILINGS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE
SHIFTS WESTWARD SOME. AS A RESULT, RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED
FROM KTTN-KPNE-KPHL-KILG ON EASTWARD WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FOR AWHILE ESPECIALLY AT KMIV AND KACY. OUR CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOW SIDE HOWEVER WITH THE IMPACTS AND TIMING AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. NORTHEAST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR, LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR FOR A TIME IN
MOSTLY SNOW VCNTY KACY. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
15- 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WATERS THRU THE PD DUE
TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE CAROLINAS, MOVES OFF THE CST AND THEN UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
THU SUN. ATTM, IT DOES NOT APPEAR GALE CRITERIA WILL BE MET, SO
THE GALE WATCH WAS DROPPED.
OUTLOOK...
SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FAVORED WINDS LESS THAN 35 KT. WENT WITH A
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER BAY.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. A SCA
LOOKS LIKELY. MAYBE GALES MONDAY EVENING.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...DIMINISHING WIND AND HEADLINES NOT
LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SCA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
EXPECT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY FAVORABLE,
AND WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL OFF SHORE, WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS OUR LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR BOTH THE SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER AS A
SLIGHT SHIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD
INCREASE THE THREAT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
945 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, MAINLY LOWERING THEM OVER THE
PENINSULA OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AND LOOKING AT THE
HRRR, THE NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET. THE HRRR ACTUALLY SHOWS
ALMOST NO ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AT THIS POINT, BUT WILL NOT REMOVE
THE MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BUT, DID REDUCE THEM TO
SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016/
AVIATION...
THE WEATHER HAS CALMED DOWN FOR THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR A STORM
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA
TOMORROW FROM THE WEST, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER.
CURRENTLY HAVE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE MORNING HOURS, AND THEN
SHOWERS AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 17Z FOR ALL TAF
SITES. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN IT TREK ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SO, VFR CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT SOME ALT REQD IS POSSIBLE FOR TOMORROW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016/
UPDATE...
REGIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.
THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELED.
UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT THE WANING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...LEFT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REGION WIDE FOR THE REMAINING
EVENING HOURS AND OVER NIGHT. RECENT MESO-SCALE MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016/
UPDATE...
THE ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...SOME OF WHICH WAS SPAWNED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. BUT SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES. WITH THESE
TRENDS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS DROPPED FOR THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH THE ONLY
AREAS LEFT IN THE WATCH BEING BROWARD COUNTY AND THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016/
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR MIAMI DADE
AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES ..
DISCUSSION...
WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...A BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST GULF EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
ACTIVE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE FROM BROWARD COUNTY NORTHWARD TO PALM BEACH
COUNTY AND THE LAKE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE AND RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND PWAT MAXIMA ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES
WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY WHICH CAN SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
THESE SAME AREAS. IN ADDITION THERE IS A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE
AND REGIONAL HELICITY THAT CAN SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL
CLOUDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS STILL POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR MIAMI DADE AND MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTIES. IN ADDITION WE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE NEED
TO EXPAND THE WATCH TO MIAMI DADE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY WITH A DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS. BUT FORECAST
REGIONAL INSTABILITY DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS MOST OF THE PENINSULA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BUT THE THREAT OF STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS DIMINISHED.
A CLEARING TREND IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION.
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A LINGERING SMALL LONG PERIOD SWELL WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATE RISK
IS EXPECTED ACROSS ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE...
REGIONAL WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS BUILDING SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 85 56 66 / 20 70 40 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 87 58 67 / 20 70 40 10
MIAMI 74 86 60 69 / 20 60 40 10
NAPLES 72 81 59 68 / 20 60 30 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
422 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Radar and satellite mosaics continue to show a large area of rain
and embedded convection over the north-central Gulf of Mexico and
adjacent parts of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. As
was discussed earlier this morning, the MCS over the Gulf has
limited the northward expansion of the LLJ over land portions of the
Southeast. This is confirmed by looking at surface and VWP wind
observations, as well as recent RAP analysis. Essentially the area
of low-level convergence in which the rain and storms have been
developing has only been further enhanced while remaining relatively
stationary. That has largely prevented any rain or thunderstorms
from affecting our area. Scattered thunderstorms were also forming
in a separate region north of I-20 in central Mississippi and
central Alabama. The overall result has been that our area has
largely stayed dry for much of the day. PoPs were further decreased
prior to 21-22Z over most of the area, and temperatures were nudged
down again as mid-high level cloud layers continue to stream NE off
the Gulf convection.
Looking ahead to tonight, there are some signs that rain will
finally build into the forecast area. In addition to cooling and
northward-expanding cloud tops near coastal LA, MS, AL, there has
also been an increase in convection in the past 1-2 hours between I-
20 and the coast in MS and AL. All of this is indicative of
increasing ascent, which should allow rain to fill in this afternoon
and evening and push east. There is not a cohesive timeline
portrayed by the global or convection allowing models, so we just
showed a general trend toward 50-70% PoPs tonight. There may be
sufficient overlap of marginal elevated instability and around 40
knots of 0-6km bulk shear to produce a few stronger storms
overnight, with hail being the primary threat.
.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
On Saturday, a slow moving or stationary boundary will be in place
over the region. As a result POPs will be high around 70 percent for
nearly all locations. Thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon
with a marginal risk for severe. With CAPE forecast at 500 to 900
and 0 to 6 km shear forecast at 30 to 40 knots, a few isolated
severe storms are possible. By Saturday night, the cold front is
forecast to pick up some speed. Northwest portions of the region
will see decreasing POPs at this time and southeast portions of the
region will see POPs in the 40 to 65 percent range with thunder
possible. Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s. Lows Saturday night
will be in the low to mid 40s in northwest portions of the region
and upper 40s and lower 50s elsewhere.
On Sunday, the cold front is forecast to be southeast of the region.
Expect drier weather and much cooler temperatures. Despite mostly
sunny skies, highs will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s for most
of the region. Sunday night, lows will be in the upper 30s for all
locations except for the immediate coast.
.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Most of the coming week is expected to be fairly uneventful.
Subsidence aloft associated with a high pressure system will promote
cooler and drier conditions over the area early in the week. There
is a possibility of low temperatures in the 30s before sunrise on
Monday morning and again on Monday night. Later in the week, a low
pressure system is expected to track northeastward across the
midwest, dragging a cold front across the southeastern states. The
flow of gulf moisture ahead of the cold front will promote a steady
increase of temperatures and humidity through the later parts of the
week. The threat of thunderstorms is expected to return by Friday as
the front approaches our area.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]
As of 1730Z, a mixture of cloud layers existed across the area,
with lower clouds (IFR to low end MVFR) situated further south
near ECP, TLH, and VLD. To the north, the clouds were mostly above
10,000 feet. Some of the low cloud layers may lift a bit this
afternoon, with a trend toward MVFR-VFR at most locations through
the late afternoon or early evening (around 00Z timeframe). It
also should stay fairly dry through around 21-22Z, although rain
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will begin to push into
the area after that. The timing of particular areas of rain is
quite uncertain at this time, and the uncertainty is also higher
than normal in terms of cloud layer trends after 00Z. For the
TAFs, we simplified things with a broad forecast of rain showers
and IFR CIGS, although it would be reasonable to expect some
variability between 00Z this evening and 18Z tomorrow with several
rounds of rain showers possible.
&&
.Marine...
Light southerly winds are expected tonight and Saturday. Also
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected as a cold front
approaches. A few storms may be severe. Late Saturday evening, winds
will begin to shift to the northwest as the cold front passes. Winds
will increase to SCA levels (20 to 25 knots) around midnight for
western portions of marine waters. SCA level winds will spread to
all marine waters by Sunday morning. Winds and seas will remain
elevated until Monday afternoon.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected through the
weekend.
&&
.Hydrology...
An additional 1-3 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday
night across most of the area with localized additional amounts of
5 inches possible. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur
during the overnight hours tonight. The large scale rainfall
amounts are not expected to be heavy enough for widespread
flooding, but some isolated instances of flooding could occur
tonight when the heaviest rainfall rates occur. Area rivers will
be on the rise with the lower Choctawhatchee and Apalachicola
basins the most likely to be impacted over the next several days.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 64 77 50 64 39 / 70 70 60 10 0
Panama City 65 72 51 61 44 / 70 70 40 0 0
Dothan 61 72 45 59 38 / 70 70 20 0 0
Albany 62 75 46 60 38 / 70 70 30 0 0
Valdosta 63 77 51 63 39 / 60 60 60 10 0
Cross City 63 79 56 68 39 / 50 50 60 20 0
Apalachicola 66 74 53 63 44 / 70 60 60 10 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...KING/MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...DVD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
337 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.NEAR TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
REST OF AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PERSISTED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HELPED MIX DOWN DRIER AIR WHICH SQUASHED
MOST CONVECTION. WSR 88D WAS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS MARION COUNTY. LATEST HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA AND HAVE
SCATTERED POPS THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY.
TONIGHT...STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SE GA LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY LATE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY AND TRACKS INTO NW GA BY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
ALONG WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS
ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS.
SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS N GA INTO SC BY LATE IN
THE DAY AS A LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. AREA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS.
GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SPC HAS
OUR AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN CONCERN. WARM SW WINDS WILL HELP PUSH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 70S...WITH A FEW 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
.SHORT TERM...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN
SE GA WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AROUND 40 KNOTS OF
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POSING THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS THE
FRONT ENTERS NORTHEAST FL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COVERAGE IN PRECIP
WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY BUT HAVE KEPT AROUND 40 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS THESE AREAS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST FL INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING FROM SW TO NW AS
FRONT PASSES. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN DROPPING LOW TEMPS ACROSS
SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. ELSEWHERE LOW
60S ARE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARILY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NE FL COASTAL
AREAS AND SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY DURING THE MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MID MORNING. NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE DROP EXPECTED ON SUNDAY EVEN
WITH SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
SE GA AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS NE FL. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH GUSTING AROUND 20-25 MPH. TEMPS
SUNDAY NIGHT DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...WITH
WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WILL FEEL AROUND 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE FORECAST
LOW TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES...CENTERING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ENTERING
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS MOVEMENT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL US
LATE IN THE WEEK. COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. AS WINDS SHIFT ON
TUESDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 70S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LOW 80S BY THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT DUE TO
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCP MOVING IN WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. HAVE KEPT MOST TERMINALS VFR EXCEPT HAVE
MVFR CIGS AT GNV AFT 04Z. ALSO EXPECTING SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
MOVE IN OVERNITE AND HAVE LIGHT RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS
A WARM TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY
AND MOVES NE. THE LOW WILL LIFT NE TO THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK FOR THE NE FL BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY
DUE TO PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 63 76 53 64 / 60 70 60 10
SSI 62 73 57 66 / 60 70 60 20
JAX 64 78 58 68 / 60 70 50 20
SGJ 64 78 61 69 / 60 70 50 30
GNV 64 79 59 69 / 60 70 50 20
OCF 64 81 61 70 / 60 60 50 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
GUILLET/PETERSON/WALSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
322 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS WEEKEND...
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...THE DRIER AIR ON THE MORNING SOUNDINGS MIXED
DOWN DURING DAYTIME HEATING AND LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S
EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE MOISTURE WAS A LITTLE DEEPER.
DIFFUSE HEATING WAS OCCURRING THROUGH CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO PUSH SLOWLY INLAND. A FEW CELLS
FORMED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING INLAND AROUND CEDAR
KEY. THE HRRR MODEL BLEW IT UP INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT
MOVED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER RADAR SHOWED THESE
ECHOES HAD DISSIPATED. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPED SOME SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION JUST INLAND FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING. WILL PAY SOME HONOR TO THE HRRR AND HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...HIGHER MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS AN IMPULSE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH. EXPECT THIS WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS...BUT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY CONTINUE SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. MOS HAS BEEN CARRYING
HIGHER POPS DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SO WILL NOT
CHANGE OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THAT TREND.
SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH
WILL CAUSE A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
LOCALLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. WE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE WAKE OF ONE IMPULSE ALOFT EARLY
IN THE DAY AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE SEMI-PREVALENT
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND QUITE COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPS ALONG WITH MODEST HEATING INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...WHILE THE EAST
COAST BOUNDARY WILL NOT MOVE INLAND MUCH. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT ANY IMPULSES IN THE RATHER FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT
WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS POPS...AROUND 60 PERCENT
SAT NIGHT-SUN...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WELL WEST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ADVECTS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. MID LEVEL/500MB
IMPULSES IN THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL/250MB JET MOVE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NIGHT.
MID LEVEL/500MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE AROUND -12C WHICH IS PLENTY
COLD/COOL ENOUGH TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO INITIATE
CONVECTION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. GUIDANCE 50-60 POP REASONABLE AFTER LOOKING AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTION(S) SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE STARTING LATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY THEN THE MOISTURE STARTS DECREASING AS THE FRONT
WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE PENINSULA. LOWS SUN MORNING MID 60S
SUN NIGHT...FRONT CLEARS MAINLAND CENTRAL FLORIDA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
ONLY PRECIP LEFT IS TO THE EAST OVER THE SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTY
GULF STREAM AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 12 MPH NORTH TO SOUTH. THE NORTHWEST WIND ALSO
ADVECTS IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MON MORNING
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 TO THE LOW 50S
IN MARTIN COUNTY/STUART.
PREVIOUS EXTENDED...
MON-FRI...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GENERALLY NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST WED. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
SPREAD INTO FLORIDA ON MON WITH THIS FEATURE QUICKLY MOVING OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL LIE JUST NORTH OF ECFL. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WED
THRU FRI. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO
LOUISIANA ON THU PER THE GFS BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. ASIDE FROM TIMING...STRENGTH AND SURFACE/UPPER FEATURE
PLACEMENT ALSO NOT IN LINE CURRENTLY BETWEEN BOTH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS.
MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH 60S AREAWIDE...STILL BELOW
NORMAL INTO TUE WITH L-M 70S AND A MIX OF NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FOR HIGHS WED-THU. LOWS IN THE 40S INTERIOR/50S SPACE/TREASURE
COASTS TUE MORNING...GENERALLY 50S WED MORNING...EXCEPT L60S
IMMEDIATE ST. LUCIE/MARTIN COASTS AND PUSHING BACK UP NEAR 60
DEGREES TO L60S THU/FRI MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...
STILL VFR EVERYWHERE. LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GO UP
OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS AN IMPULSE ALOFT APPROACHES. THOUGH MOS
GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING MUCH MVFR...WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR TO
OCCUR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING MAINLY NORTH OF KMCO-KTIX.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK HIGH SAT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF STORMS.
THE BULK EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...FLOW HAS BECOME LIGHT AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WAS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL STAY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME SOUTH
ON SAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE 3-4 FEET PRIMARILY DUE TO A LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL
AT 13-15 SECONDS.
THE PRIMARY THREAT TO MARINERS WILL BE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OFFSHORE ON
SAT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 15KNOTS OR MORE LATE SUNDAY. SCATTERED/LIKELY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH LINGER DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
EVENING AND SHOULD HAVE ENDED BY SUNRISE MON MORNING. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE SUN EVENING AND REMAIN 20
KNOTS OR MORE THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
MON-WED...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS EARLY MON SHIFT TO
NORTH AND DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS MON NIGHT. WINDS DECREASE TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO THE EAST TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRESSURE RE ALIGNS
ITSELF WEST TO EAST WITH ITS CENTER AXIS OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY MON...
RUN A LINE FROM AROUND DAYTONA BEACH TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE.
TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...RH LESS THAN 30 PERCENT TO AROUND 20
PERCENT CLERMONT AND SOUTH LAKE COUNTY. EAST OF THE SAME LINE...MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOW 30S. DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW
RH...ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES AND BREEZY 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSELY FOR INCREASED FIRE SPREAD
THREAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 64 80 63 73 / 60 60 40 50
MCO 67 84 66 76 / 30 60 40 60
MLB 67 82 67 77 / 30 60 30 70
VRB 66 83 64 80 / 30 60 40 60
LEE 65 83 66 73 / 40 60 40 50
SFB 66 83 66 75 / 50 60 40 50
ORL 68 83 67 75 / 40 60 40 60
FPR 65 84 66 80 / 30 60 50 50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
951 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
TODAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LACKING ON MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION...UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY...IF THEN. THE 06Z GFS HARDLY PRODUCED ANY PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE HRRR MODEL HAS JUST BEEN SHOWING
CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LOW DBZ SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTH. HAVE TRIMMED BACK DAYTIME POPS...CONFINING CHANCE VALUES TO
VOLUSIA AND NORTH LAKE COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...HIGHER MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS AN IMPULSE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH. ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD FAVOR THE EVENING PERIOD WHEN SOME
DAYTIME HEATING BOUNDARIES WERE STILL LINGERING...BUT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY CONTINUE THUNDER CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. MOS HAS BEEN CARRYING HIGHER POPS
DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SO WILL NOT CHANGE OUR
CURRENT FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWED THAT TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY VFR EVERYWHERE AND DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MVFR SHOULD BE
KLEE-KDAB AFTER 18Z AND POSSIBLY EVEN AS LATE AS 21-22Z. THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LOW SHOWER CHANCES AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED STORMS...BUT CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
ACTUALLY GO UP TONIGHT AND A THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LINGER...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KMCO-KTIX.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT HOLDING ON...10 KNOTS OR
LESS INT THE NORTH AND 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AND FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY PICKING UP TO 10-15 KNOTS LATE. SEAS 3-4 FEET
WILL PRIMARILY BE DUE TO A LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL AT 13-15
SECONDS.
THE PRIMARY THREAT TO MARINERS WILL BE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
PUSHING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF
STREAM.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
652 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AT 07Z EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL PLAIN SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS EAST
GEORGIA...CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS
REMAINS DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN
1.00 INCH. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN SHIELD SHRINKING.
LATEST HRRR MODEL CONFIRMS REASONING WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST
OF THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS. WENT WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
AFTER 12Z WITH SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY BUT BREAKS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
MOS TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO TRENDED
WARMER...MID 70S. IT COULD BE WARMER DEPENDING ON INSOLATION AS
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BUT LATEST ECMWF
APPEARS FASTER AND MORE IN LINE WITH GFS/NAM. ALL MOS GUIDANCE
LEANING TO NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY AS LOW MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED.
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY WITH IN-SITU WEDGE
MORE LIKELY NORTH OF COLUMBIA AND WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE CSRA.
WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS CSRA MAY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB AROUND -28C OR LOWER. GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY. TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE W
AND CENT CONUS TUE THRU FRI...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN RESPONSE
OFFSHORE THE SE CONUS. COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR FA
MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST...BUILDING EAST INTO
OUR REGION BY MON NT/TUE. COOL DRY AIR AND APPEARANCE OF WHAT COULD
BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MAY PROVIDE A FROST THREAT
FOR OUR FA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A WARMING TREND FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. COULD
HIT 80 AGAIN BY THU. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTIES IN
PLAY...BUT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO AFFECT OUR
REGION AT SOME POINT LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
MOVING IN LATE.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MOVING
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WHEN RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. HAVE REMAINED WITH
VCSH BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AT AGS/DNL THEN MOVING INTO
OGB/CAE/CUB BETWEEN 19/02 AND 19/03Z. RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING INTO
AGS/DNL AROUND 19/06Z AND SPREADING INTO CAE/CUB AROUND 19/08Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
313 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AT 07Z EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL PLAIN SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS EAST
GEORGIA...CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS
REMAINS DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN
1.00 INCH. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN SHIELD SHRINKING.
LATEST HRRR MODEL CONFIRMS REASONING WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST
OF THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS. WENT WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
AFTER 12Z WITH SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY BUT BREAKS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
MOS TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO TRENDED
WARMER...MID 70S. IT COULD BE WARMER DEPENDING ON INSOLATION AS
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BUT LATEST ECMWF
APPEARS FASTER AND MORE IN LINE WITH GFS/NAM. ALL MOS GUIDANCE
LEANING TO NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY AS LOW MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED.
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY WITH IN-SITU WEDGE
MORE LIKELY NORTH OF COLUMBIA AND WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE CSRA.
WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS CSRA MAY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB AROUND -28C OR LOWER. GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY. TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE W
AND CENT CONUS TUE THRU FRI...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN RESPONSE
OFFSHORE THE SE CONUS. COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR FA
MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST...BUILDING EAST INTO
OUR REGION BY MON NT/TUE. COOL DRY AIR AND APPEARANCE OF WHAT COULD
BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MAY PROVIDE A FROST THREAT
FOR OUR FA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A WARMING TREND FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. COULD
HIT 80 AGAIN BY THU. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTIES IN
PLAY...BUT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO AFFECT OUR
REGION AT SOME POINT LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AGS/DNL WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE AS THE FRONT BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD. AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
INCLUDED VCSH BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AT AGS/DNL THEN MOVING INTO
OGB/CAE/CUB BETWEEN 19/02 AND 19/03Z. WITH SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF
AGS/DNL/OGB EXPECT MIXING TO CONTINUE PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
159 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016/
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THUS FAR TODAY...IT HAS BEEN THE SAME OLE STORY WRT GULF COAST
CONVECTION THIS YEAR WITH MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA BECOMING CUTOFF
AT THE EXPENSE OF GULF DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SPC RAP INDICES SHOWING A VERY SHARP
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. BUT DESPITE VALUES CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG ALONG
OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN BORDER...CONVECTION AS MENTIONED REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THIS GRADIENT AND CANT REALLY GET ANY TRANSPORT NORTH OF
THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. INSTEAD...STARTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE ACTUALLY CAPE ZONE AS OPPOSED TO ACTIVITY
ADVECTING IN BUT MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THUS FAR. WITH
TIME THOUGH...SHOULD SEE THIS SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
AREA AS WELL AND WILL CONTINUE LOW END CHANCE POPS WITH LOW END
THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL.
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AND FEEL GUIDANCE IS
UNDERDOING POPS BASED ON GRIDDED FIELD ANALYSIS IN THE
GFS...NAM12...AND THE ECMWF. HAVE PUSHED POP CHANCES FURTHER NORTH
WHILE ALSO INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTH.
INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY BUILD DURING THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HAVE
LIMITED IT TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN LOCATIONS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIKELY POPS.
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH WARM FRONT
MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE TN/GA BORDER. INSTABILITY SHOULD RAMP
UP AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF
NORTH GEORGIA. GIVEN VICINITY OF THE LOW...SHOULDNT HAVE TO WORRY
ABOUT ANOTHER GULF CUTOFF SCENARIO AND SO WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE
ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST AREAS.
DEESE
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS DIVERGE FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THE
SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WITH GFS FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN ECMWF. DURING
THIS TIME...AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT
LAKES AREA...AGAIN GFS IS FURTHER EAST AND STRONGER THAN
ECMWF...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BETTER POPS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LOW IS ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN FLOW BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN END OF SHORT WAVE ROTATES OVER THE
FORECAST ARE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ANY LOW END POPS WILL BE MAINLY OVER
NORTH GEORGIA. THE WORK WEEK IS PUNCTUATED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO SURPRISINGLY THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT
BY WEEKS END. WILL KEEP LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW.
ATWELL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS AND EXITING PRECIP TO THE
SOUTHEAST...SHOULD LEAVE LINGERING ALTO DECK INTO FRIDAY THEN
GRADUAL LOWERING NEAR 5-7 KFT AFTER 18Z /SOUTHERN SITES TRENDING
LOWER EARLIER/. -SHRA CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z
BUT DELAYED CHANCE NEAR KATL UNTIL AFTER 18Z WITH PROB30 THEN
PREDOMINANT FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER REMAIN NEAR
SOUTHERN SITES FOR AFTERNOON. WINDS NEAR KATL INITIALLY WEST/NW
UNDER 7 KTS SHOULD SWING NE AFTER ABOUT 11Z THIS MORNING THEN STAY
EAST TO ESE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL WINDS MAY BE MORE
VRB FOR SOUTHERN SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SHIFT. EXPECT TREND
TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND POSSIBLY LOWER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON PRECIP CHANCE TIMING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 51 64 43 / 30 60 60 40
ATLANTA 67 54 63 41 / 40 60 60 30
BLAIRSVILLE 65 47 57 37 / 20 60 60 40
CARTERSVILLE 66 51 61 40 / 30 60 60 30
COLUMBUS 70 58 68 44 / 70 70 60 30
GAINESVILLE 66 51 60 41 / 30 60 60 40
MACON 69 57 69 45 / 60 60 60 40
ROME 67 51 59 39 / 30 60 60 30
PEACHTREE CITY 67 52 64 40 / 50 60 60 30
VIDALIA 70 58 72 50 / 60 60 70 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
335 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 TOMORROW. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 DEGREES. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WARM UP BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ACTUALLY
RISE AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW FORMING TO OUR WEST. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES TO OUR NORTH AND WITH GENERAL FRONTOLYSIS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER. WOULDN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE IN OUR N/NE ZONES
BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME AND WILL MAINTAIN
DRY FORECAST. WILL SEE SOME MODEST CAA THIS MORNING THOUGH AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -5C. THIS COUPLED WITH ASSOCIATED
INCREASE IN STRATOCU WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A DIURNAL RECOVERY
TODAY. LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER RAW GUIDANCE AND INHERITED
FORECAST WITH HIGHS MID 40S-LOW 50S...COOLEST NEAR THE LAKE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...EXCEPT IN OUR NORTHEAST
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MID 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
LARGE MID/UPPER LOW WILL THEN WOBBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR CWA NOT
LOOKING GOOD AT ALL. BEST CVA AND DEFORMATION/FGEN SET TO PASS SOUTH
OF OUR CWA WITH 1030MB ONTARIO SURFACE HIGH MAINTAINING SIZABLE
INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA. BEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E ALSO REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH CANADIAN RIDGE ACTUALLY MAINTAINING A
STEADY FEED OF NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL LIKELY BE ON SATURDAY AS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE CLIPPED
WITH SOME MODEST ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK VORTICITY
SHRED. BUT EVEN THEN...CHANCES ARE NOT GREAT DUE TO SHEARING VORT
MAX/WEAK UVV`S AND STUBBORN DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CUT POPS
A BIT FOR SATURDAY BUT DID LEAVE SOME LOW CHANCES GENERALLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF US-30. IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL LIKELY BE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN WET BULB TEMPS LARGELY BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...WARM GROUND AND LIGHT QPF SUGGEST VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. ALSO LOWERED POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS VAST
MAJORITY OF 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THETA-E TROUGH FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
BY THEN WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE QPF.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS LONGWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES DAMPENS EAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHLY MERIDIONAL
NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW -10C. A FEW
LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT CORE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
BYPASSES US TO THE NORTHEAST AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE AWFULLY DRY.
BACKGROUND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME GIVEN
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND KEPT FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO CHANGE DRASTICALLY FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK. DEEP TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WITH DOWNSTREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING WARMER CONDITIONS TO OUR
REGION. MODELS DISPLAYING TYPICAL DISCREPANCIES WITH DETAILS OF
EVOLVING PATTERN. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME LATE IN
THE WEEK BUT TIMING REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY
THIS MORNING. WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH AREA AFTER
DAYBREAK. LOCAL CU RULES SUGGEST BKN CLOUD DECK POSSIBLE WITH
COLDER AIR IN THE NORTH...MAINLY KSBN. LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR HAVE
TRIED TO BRING MVFR CIGS OVER WI INTO KSBN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS FOR NEXT UPDATE. KFWA TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR
JUST SCT TO OCCASIONAL BKN VFR CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
BEHIND FRONT IN THE 10-14KT RANGE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
127 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 826 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IN OUR AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... EXCEPT ONLY IN
THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS TRIMMING OF PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN LWR MI WILL CONTINUE TO PINCH
OFF/FILL AS IT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT SAT/RADAR
TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE BEARISH ON PRECIP COVERAGE NORTH OF US 30
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CU FIELD HAS RAPIDLY EXPANDED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...HI RES GUIDANCE THAT
DOES SHOW SHOWERS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON ARE PLACING THE PRECIP
COVERAGE SOUTH OF US 30...AS VORT RIBBON ON LEFT PERIPHERY OF
DEPARTING UPPER JET TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...APPARENT PER LATEST
W/V SAT LOOP. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF US 30 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXCLUDED MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER POPPING UP WILL BE BETWEEN THE 22Z AND 02Z
TIMEFRAME. ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED POPS NORTH...WITH ONLY A
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS THIS EVENING AND ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...CUT CLOUD COVERAGE CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...ON THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE. REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING BECOMES SPLIT BETWEEN
DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM LOBE OF ELONGATED TROF AND UPPER MIDWEST
LOW CUTTING OFF NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF A LIMA TO
COLDWATER LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
FORECAST PERIOD TO BEGIN WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...SPLINTERING ELONGATED E/W ORIENTED UPPER TROF WITH
REMNANT FORMING CLOSED LOW OVER MID MS VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH ONLY SIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN SW CWA.
PATTERN THEN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND BRINGS MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WITH IT. AFTER A CHILLY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S...TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY.
WARM UP WILL BRING A RETURN FLOW AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS UPPER TROF IS CARVED OUT OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS...RESULTING SW FLOW WILL HAVE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY
THIS MORNING. WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH AREA AFTER
DAYBREAK. LOCAL CU RULES SUGGEST BKN CLOUD DECK POSSIBLE WITH
COLDER AIR IN THE NORTH...MAINLY KSBN. LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR HAVE
TRIED TO BRING MVFR CIGS OVER WI INTO KSBN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS FOR NEXT UPDATE. KFWA TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR
JUST SCT TO OCCASIONAL BKN VFR CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
BEHIND FRONT IN THE 10-14KT RANGE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1259 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT Thu MAR 17 2016
A winter weather advisory for snow was issued for a few
central/west central counties. The Nam appears to be increasingly
supported by the RAP for frontogenetically forced, developing
rapidly snow toward the 3 am to 8 am timeframe. A caveat is the
dry air currently, however there are several hours to go for
saturation to develop. The NAM and RAP indicated in excess of 4
inches, so probability of reaching at least the lower advisory
threshold of 2 inches seems decent this morning despite the warm
ground, and warm temperatures that need to be overcome by dynamic
cooling.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
For tonight, a shortwave trough with moderate to strong surface to
mid level frontogenesis, will move into western Kansas later tonight
with increasing clouds and rain and snow chances. Rain should
develop north of Dodge City around midnight, then spread south
during the morning as a cold front drops southward across Kansas.
Rain then should change to mostly snow after midnight into early
morning, north of a Garden City to Larned line with around an inch
accumulation from near Hays to Wakeeney and Scott City. The snow
should stick mainly on grassy surfaces as a wet snow. South winds
around 10 to 20 mph will shift to the northeast at 15 to 25 mph with
the cold front. Overnight lows will be around 30 north of Dodge City
to the mid 30s south.
For Friday, the shortwave trough and attendant forcing will move
rapidly east in the afternoon with precipitation rapidly winding
down. Rain may mix with snow near Dodge City and west, with mainly
all snow from Garden City to Jetmore and Larned and north in the
morning. Additional snow accumulations could be another inch from
Scott City to Hays and north with lesser amounts elsewhere. Total
snow amounts could be around 2 inches from Scott City to Hays
including Wakeeney. Northeast winds will continue at 15 to 25 mph
with highs only in the upper 30s to around 40. Warmer mid 40s will
be in parts of south central Kansas from Ashland to near Pratt.
.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
For Friday night into Wednesday, a dry period is forecast with a
warming trend. Cool northwest flow aloft will transition to warmer
ridging. Highs warm from around 50 on Saturday, mid to upper 50s
Sunday, mid to upper 70s Monday and Tuesday, then 60s to around 70
on Wednesday. Lows will be cold on Friday night and Saturday night
with only around 18 to 25 degrees. Lows then warm into the 30s
Sunday night, with 40s into Tuesday night.
A cold front moves across Kansas Wednesday night as an upper low is
forecast to approach the region on Thursday. Chances for rain or
snow increase with this upper low. Highs on Thursday fall back into
the 50s with lows in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
Cielings will deteriorate overnight across the area as a sharp
preciptation band develops from northwest into central Kansas, and
persists through the morning hours on Friday. The post frontal
system will bring sustained northeast winds gusting to near 30
knots at times through the early afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 23 49 22 57 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 22 48 19 57 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 23 49 25 62 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 22 51 22 59 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 22 47 21 54 / 10 10 0 0
P28 24 53 24 58 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-
031-044>046-064-065.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Russell
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1101 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON RAP UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA.
THE FIRST IS NEAR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
WITH SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. SEVERAL
WEAK BANDS OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF OUR CWA.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
AT LEAST A LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS COMBINING WITH EAST-NORTHEAST MOIST FLOW NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. POPS/TIMING WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
NOW MENTIONED ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS
STILL INDICATION FROM SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE OF A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CSI WITH NEAR NEUTRAL
THETA E LAPSE RATES WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL MORE
FOCUSED/INTENSE SNOW BANDS TO FORM. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING (OR WHERE) AND I LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE IDEA OF LESS
INSTABILITY/BROADER LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE.
TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS PRECIP WINDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES EASTWARD AND FRONTOGENESIS TRANSITIONS OUT OF OUR CWA.
REGARDING PRECIP TYPE...MOISTURE PROFILES STILL APPEAR TO BE
PROBLEMATIC IN OUR EASTERN CWA...WITH WET BULB SURFACE TEMPS IN THE
33-35F RANGE. THIS COULD MEAN THAT LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST (WHERE THE
STRONGER QPF SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE IS) WOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OR JUST RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON PRECIP OCCURRENCE WITH HIGHS LINGERING NEAR WET BULB
TEMPS UNLESS PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR CLEARING WOULD BE IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS THAT
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MAINLY
SNOW. THE OTHER COMPLICATION WILL BE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
WHICH COULD EAT INTO ANY POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS (BARRING HEAVIER
SNOW RATES). IN ANY CASE IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF OUR CWA SHOULD SEE
1-2" OF SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN NW
KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO...AND LESS IN SW NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TRI STATE
REGION WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST...COINCIDING WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN ROCKIES...THAT WILL SHIFT SURFACE FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO
MORE SOUTHERLY BY 06Z SATURDAY...THUS ENDING UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM 06Z SATURDAY ONWARD WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FOR NEXT MONDAY ON THRU TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH BUILDING H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS IS GOING TO
CREATE DOWNSLOPE MIDLEVEL FLOW THAT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. H5 RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST FAIRLY PROGRESSIVELY BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE PLAINS REGION SEEING A SHORTWAVE AFFECT
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...MOVING ESE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS SHIFTING UPPER
LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THE RESULT WILL BE LESS QPF FOR THE
CWA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
FOR TEMPS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BEHIND
DISSIPATING SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THRU THE DAY. NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS...WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS...ONLY TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BACK TO THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER.
FOR PRECIPITATION...LINGERING -SW ON FRIDAY NIGHT COULD GIVE EASTERN
COLORADO VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUM LESS THAN AN INCH. SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MIDWEEK WILL BRING A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ONLY UP TO A
POTENTIAL 0.10" QPF...INCLUDING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW.
FOR WINDS/RH...POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO INCREASE NEAR
20MPH SATURDAY BUT SHOULD TIL SUNDAY. MONDAY/TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS REACHING 10-20 MPH W/ SOME LOCALES REACHING HIGHER FOR BRIEF
PERIODS...ALONG WITH LOW RH READINGS MONDAY/TUESDAY NEAR 15-20
PERCENT...COULD CREATE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY COULD HAVE AREA SEEING GUSTS NEAR 30+
MPH WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
GLD WILL BE INTERMITTENTLY VFR AND MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH
LIGHT RAIN TURNING TO LIGHT SNOW AFTER 09Z AND DIMINISHING AFTER
14Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO ALL VFR AFTER 19Z WITH HIGHER
SCATTERED CLOUDS AFTER 00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.
MCK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE MAIN
SNOW BAND AND LOWER CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY PASSED SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS TURNING TO SNOW AFTER 09Z MAY BE NOTED...BUT SHOULD BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY 14Z. SCATTERED HIGHER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 23Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1106 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
...Winter Weather Advisory hoisted for a few west central Kansas
counties early this morning Hays/Wakeeney/Dighton/Ness/LaCrosse...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT Thu MAR 17 2016
A winter weather advisory for snow was issued for a few
central/west central counties. The Nam appears to be increasingly
supported by the RAP for frontogenetically forced, developing
rapidly snow toward the 3 am to 8 am timeframe. A caveat is the
dry air currently, however there are several hours to go for
saturation to develop. The NAM and RAP indicated in excess of 4
inches, so probability of reaching at least the lower advisory
threshold of 2 inches seems decent this morning despite the warm
ground, and warm temperatures that need to be overcome by dynamic
cooling.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
For tonight, a shortwave trough with moderate to strong surface to
mid level frontogenesis, will move into western Kansas later tonight
with increasing clouds and rain and snow chances. Rain should
develop north of Dodge City around midnight, then spread south
during the morning as a cold front drops southward across Kansas.
Rain then should change to mostly snow after midnight into early
morning, north of a Garden City to Larned line with around an inch
accumulation from near Hays to Wakeeney and Scott City. The snow
should stick mainly on grassy surfaces as a wet snow. South winds
around 10 to 20 mph will shift to the northeast at 15 to 25 mph with
the cold front. Overnight lows will be around 30 north of Dodge City
to the mid 30s south.
For Friday, the shortwave trough and attendant forcing will move
rapidly east in the afternoon with precipitation rapidly winding
down. Rain may mix with snow near Dodge City and west, with mainly
all snow from Garden City to Jetmore and Larned and north in the
morning. Additional snow accumulations could be another inch from
Scott City to Hays and north with lesser amounts elsewhere. Total
snow amounts could be around 2 inches from Scott City to Hays
including Wakeeney. Northeast winds will continue at 15 to 25 mph
with highs only in the upper 30s to around 40. Warmer mid 40s will
be in parts of south central Kansas from Ashland to near Pratt.
.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
For Friday night into Wednesday, a dry period is forecast with a
warming trend. Cool northwest flow aloft will transition to warmer
ridging. Highs warm from around 50 on Saturday, mid to upper 50s
Sunday, mid to upper 70s Monday and Tuesday, then 60s to around 70
on Wednesday. Lows will be cold on Friday night and Saturday night
with only around 18 to 25 degrees. Lows then warm into the 30s
Sunday night, with 40s into Tuesday night.
A cold front moves across Kansas Wednesday night as an upper low is
forecast to approach the region on Thursday. Chances for rain or
snow increase with this upper low. Highs on Thursday fall back into
the 50s with lows in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
High confidence in deteriorating flying conditions this TAF cycle.
Strong cold front has already cleared HYS, with gusty NE winds and
lowering cigs. Cold front will make rapid progress through all
of SW KS early this evening, with NE wind gusts of 30-35 kts.
Expect cigs to lower overnight, becoming MVFR/IFR by 12z Fri at
DDC/GCK. Highest aviation impacts expected at HYS. Here, cigs will
lower to IFR/MVFR by 06z, with -SN reducing vis to IFR. Visibility
at HYS expected to drop to LIFR at times in the snow, and inserted
a TEMPO group for this 09-12z Friday at HYS. -RASN also expected
to reduce vis at GCK/DDC during the 09-15z timeframe.
After 18z Friday, improvements expected. All precipitation will
end rapidly, cigs will improve, and NE winds will diminish.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 40 23 49 / 30 50 10 0
GCK 32 39 22 48 / 40 50 10 0
EHA 32 39 23 49 / 20 30 20 0
LBL 34 41 22 51 / 20 20 10 0
A winter weaether advossory for snow was issued for a few
central/west central counties. The Nam appera to be increasingly
supported by tghe RAP for frontogenetically forced, developing
rapidly snow toward the 3 adm to 8 amd timeframe. A caveat is the
dry air currently, however there are several hours to go for
saturation to develop. The NAM and RAP indicated in excess of 4
inches, so probability of reaching at least the lower advisory
threshold of 2 inches seems decent this morning despite the warm
ground, and warm temperateus that need to be overcome by dynamic
cooling.
&&
HYS 31 38 22 47 / 70 70 10 10
P28 38 45 24 53 / 20 40 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for KSZ030-031-
044>046-064-065.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Russell
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1054 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLEARING EXPANDING
AND WORKING SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS
SUCH...HAVE LOWERED SKY COVER...WITH THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE BETTER CLEARING POTENTIAL NEAR THE
BLUEGRASS. A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND THE HRRR ATTEMPTS TO CAPTURE SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EXPANDED WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE.
HAVE INCLUDED A POCKET OF SPRINKLES SLOWLY WORKING SOUTH AND
FADING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE HRRR HINTS AT. LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET...ALTHOUGH DID EXPAND THE UPPER
20S A BIT FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN THE DECENT CLEARING TRENDS. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REIGN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOME
CLEARING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND SOME OF THIS THINNING MAY
WORK IN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOWS ALONE FOR NOW...HOWEVER READINGS ARE RUNNING A BIT
WARMER THAN FORECAST SO WILL TOUCH THESE UP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND THEN BLEND BACK INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST. WILL WAIT A
COUPLE MORE HOURS AND SEE IF ANY OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDS A BIT MILDER BEFORE ADJUSTING THE LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAD LED
TO A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY JUST TO
OUR NORTH...BUT THIS HAS DISSIPATED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
IOWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE BY
TOMORROW. MOISTURE AND LIFT AND MAY SCRAPE OUR FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THUS...WILL CARRY A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER WET WEATHER TO SPEAK OF IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TO OUR EAST...COLD ADVECTION WILL DRAG
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SKIES LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT MORE BREAKS WILL BE
SEEN BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SKIES START TO CLEAR OFF.
THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FROST. COOP GUIDANCE HAS AREAS REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 20S IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...AND CERTAINLY CANNOT
DISCOUNT THIS POSSIBILITY. THUS...WILL PUT A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT IN THERE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGES STAYING IN THE UPPER
20S. REGARDLESS...THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTEREST OR OUTDOOR
PLANTS WILL WANT TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT ANY EARLY PLANTS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL GIVE WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY DEAMPLIFY/FLATTEN AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...IN THE WYOMING/MONTANA/DAKOTAS REGION...WHILE
THE GFS HAS IT PEGGED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. THIS
DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. FROM HERE THE GFS HAS THE LOW LOSING STRENGTH AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE INCREASING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM OUR SOUTH WILL BE THE RECIPE FOR DRY WEATHER
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY STAY
IN THE UPPER 40S...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO THE LOW 60S ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 BY WEDNESDAY UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE BY LATE
WEEK...WITH WPC PLANTING THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST AND NORTH OF KY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PULLING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THIS WILL WORK TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS BRING IN
SOME PRECIP CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER...BUT KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THEY ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE.
COULDN/T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS WELL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS AS WE START TO TAP INTO
SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
OR STRONG...JUST POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS MIXING DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IMPROVEMENT WILL
GENERALLY OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY...WITH SJS HANGING
ONTO MVFR THE LONGEST. NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY AND BECOME 5 TO 10 KTS. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO THREATEN THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND WEST ON SUNDAY AND HAVE
CARRIED VCSH AT LOZ AND JKL DURING THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
139 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY EVENING...TAKING A PATH NORTHEAST OFF THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE DETAILS OF THIS
PATH WILL DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR IF AND WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
FALLS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
--NOON UPDATE--WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST...AS MUCAPES ARE HAVING TROUBLE REACHING 100 J/KG...FULLY
EXPLAINING THE SHRA ACTIVITY THUS FAR...BUT H8-7 LAPSE RATES ARE
FAR LESS SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING MORE ROBUST. WILL UPDATE HWO
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES.
--1025AM UPDATE-- MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP TIMING AS BAND OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TURN INCREASINGLY TO LIQUID AS THEY MOVE
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE 40S. INSTABILITY IS ON THE INCREASE WITH EVIDENCE FROM MWN
TEMPS NOW FALLING THROUGH THE MID TEENS AND SURFACE TEMPS AT PSM
NEARING 50F. LATEST HRRR PROFILES SHOW LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS
SURFACE-6KFT LAYER THAT ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS ONE DAY
PREVIOUS...SO HAVE TONED DOWN THUNDER WORDING JUST A TAD...BUT
HAVE KEPT IT IN AT THIS TIME. TEMPS LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH VERY
FEW CHANGES NEEDED HERE.
--826AM UPDATE-- HAVE TRENDED SNOWFALL DOWN JUST A TAD OVER
NORTHERN AREAS BASED ON REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS RAIN
/SEE HIE/. WEBCAM IN JACKMAN MAINE DOES REVEAL A COATING OF
SNOW...AND EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO EVENTUALLY OCCUR FOR MOST
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS FROM
TOPSHAM THROUGH WISCASSET SHOULD THIN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...WITH
SPS ONGOING THROUGH 13Z LOOKING GOOD. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HAVE ISSUED SPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AS PATCHY DENSE FOG
CONTINUES ALONG THE MIDCOAST REGION AND PORTIONS OF ANDROSCOGGIN
COUNTY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH SOME
LIMITED CAPE IN THE SOUNDING OVER SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN
THIS REGION DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS SIMILAR TO WFO
BOX GRIDS. THIS TIMING IS ALSO IN STEP WITH LATEST SUITE OF
MESOSCALE MODELS. WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SMALL HAIL...NOT
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY...BUT THERE IS THAT POSSIBILITY
WITH CONTINUING LOW FREEZING LEVELS.
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY
WITH READINGS NEAR FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING AS ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINISHES
AROUND SUNSET AS IT MOVES OFF THE COASTLINE. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE AS READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
NORTH.
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. IT WILL FEEL MORE WINTERLIKE WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS IS POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST
STORM. WHILE THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM
WILL DEVELOP...THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST WITH ITS TRACK THAT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD STAY OFFSHORE. THE 00Z GFS IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW
RESEMBLES THE GFS SOLUTION. THE 00Z GGEM AND NAM HAVE COME IN
LOOKING SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF...FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER. THE
DIFERENCE`S IN TRACK APPEAR TO REVOLVE AROUND THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS AND NOW ECMWF ARE SLOWER IN
CAPTURING THE SURFACE LOW AND THEREFORE ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS
TRACK. THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAPTURE THE
SURFACE LOW QUICKER RESULTING IN A FURTHER WEST TRACK. GIVEN THAT
THIS EVENT WON`T UNFOLD UNTIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WE CHOOSE TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS WILL BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH A COUPLE MORE
TIMES BEFORE LOCKING INTO A SOLUTION.
HAVING SAID THIS...PEOPLE TRAVELING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS AS THIS STORM HAS HIGH
IMPACT POTENTIAL. CIPS ANALOG PAGES SHOW SOME EVENTS SIMILAR TO
THIS THAT HAVE YIELDED DOUBLE DIGIT SNOW. WHILE THIS IS A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO...IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND LOCAL EM DSS SLIDE.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE MIDWEEK AS AN EAST
COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
SUMMARY: COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH
CLEARING SKIES PROMOTING IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION/S WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.
RESTRICTIONS: ANY REMAINING MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR AUG/RKD
SHORTLY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ALSO CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS: NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 12G20KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL INCREASE TO 10G15KTS BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY.
LLWS: NONE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL RAISE THE FLAGS AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THANKS FOR
THE COLLABORATION.
LONG TERM...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA LEVELS AND POSSIBLY
GALES DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
EAST.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LULOFS
AVIATION...CANNON
MARINE...CANNON/LULOFS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1200 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TODAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT
MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
--NOON UPDATE--WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST...AS MUCAPES ARE HAVING TROUBLE REACHING 100 J/KG...FULLY
EXPLAINING THE SHRA ACTIVITY THUS FAR...BUT H8-7 LAPSE RATES ARE
FAR LESS SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING MORE ROBUST. WILL UPDATE HWO
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES.
--1025AM UPDATE-- MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP TIMING AS BAND OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TURN INCREASINGLY TO LIQUID AS THEY MOVE
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE 40S. INSTABILITY IS ON THE INCREASE WITH EVIDENCE FROM MWN
TEMPS NOW FALLING THROUGH THE MID TEENS AND SURFACE TEMPS AT PSM
NEARING 50F. LATEST HRRR PROFILES SHOW LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS
SURFACE-6KFT LAYER THAT ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS ONE DAY
PREVIOUS...SO HAVE TONED DOWN THUNDER WORDING JUST A TAD...BUT
HAVE KEPT IT IN AT THIS TIME. TEMPS LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH VERY
FEW CHANGES NEEDED HERE.
--826AM UPDATE-- HAVE TRENDED SNOWFALL DOWN JUST A TAD OVER
NORTHERN AREAS BASED ON REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS RAIN
/SEE HIE/. WEBCAM IN JACKMAN MAINE DOES REVEAL A COATING OF
SNOW...AND EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO EVENTUALLY OCCUR FOR MOST
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS FROM
TOPSHAM THROUGH WISCASSET SHOULD THIN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...WITH
SPS ONGOING THROUGH 13Z LOOKING GOOD. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HAVE ISSUED SPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AS PATCHY DENSE FOG
CONTINUES ALONG THE MIDCOAST REGION AND PORTIONS OF ANDROSCOGGIN
COUNTY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH SOME
LIMITED CAPE IN THE SOUNDING OVER SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN
THIS REGION DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS SIMILAR TO WFO
BOX GRIDS. THIS TIMING IS ALSO IN STEP WITH LATEST SUITE OF
MESOSCALE MODELS. WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SMALL HAIL...NOT
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY...BUT THERE IS THAT POSSIBILITY
WITH CONTINUING LOW FREEZING LEVELS.
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY
WITH READINGS NEAR FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING AS ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINISHES
AROUND SUNSET AS IT MOVES OFF THE COASTLINE. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE AS READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
NORTH.
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. IT WILL FEEL MORE WINTERLIKE WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS IS POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST
STORM. WHILE THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM
WILL DEVELOP...THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST WITH ITS TRACK THAT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD STAY OFFSHORE. THE 00Z GFS IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW
RESEMBLES THE GFS SOLUTION. THE 00Z GGEM AND NAM HAVE COME IN
LOOKING SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF...FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER. THE
DIFERENCE`S IN TRACK APPEAR TO REVOLVE AROUND THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS AND NOW ECMWF ARE SLOWER IN
CAPTURING THE SURFACE LOW AND THEREFORE ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS
TRACK. THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAPTURE THE
SURFACE LOW QUICKER RESULTING IN A FURTHER WEST TRACK. GIVEN THAT
THIS EVENT WON`T UNFOLD UNTIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WE CHOOSE TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS WILL BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH A COUPLE MORE
TIMES BEFORE LOCKING INTO A SOLUTION.
HAVING SAID THIS...PEOPLE TRAVELING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS AS THIS STORM HAS HIGH
IMPACT POTENTIAL. CIPS ANALOG PAGES SHOW SOME EVENTS SIMILAR TO
THIS THAT HAVE YIELDED DOUBLE DIGIT SNOW. WHILE THIS IS A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO...IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND LOCAL EM DSS SLIDE.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE MIDWEEK AS AN EAST
COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MIDCOAST REGION NEAR IWI.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL RAISE THE FLAGS AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THANKS FOR
THE COLLABORATION.
LONG TERM...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA LEVELS AND POSSIBLY
GALES DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
EAST.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LULOFS
AVIATION...CANNON
MARINE...CANNON/LULOFS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1029 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TODAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT
MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
--1025AM UPDATE-- MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP TIMING AS BAND OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TURN INCREASINGLY TO LIQUID AS THEY MOVE
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE 40S. INSTABILITY IS ON THE INCREASE WITH EVIDENCE FROM MWN
TEMPS NOW FALLING THROUGH THE MID TEENS AND SURFACE TEMPS AT PSM
NEARING 50F. LATEST HRRR PROFILES SHOW LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS
SURFACE-6KFT LAYER THAT ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS ONE DAY
PREVIOUS...SO HAVE TONED DOWN THUNDER WORDING JUST A TAD...BUT
HAVE KEPT IT IN AT THIS TIME. TEMPS LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH VERY
FEW CHANGES NEEDED HERE.
--826AM UPDATE-- HAVE TRENDED SNOWFALL DOWN JUST A TAD OVER
NORTHERN AREAS BASED ON REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS RAIN
/SEE HIE/. WEBCAM IN JACKMAN MAINE DOES REVEAL A COATING OF
SNOW...AND EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO EVENTUALLY OCCUR FOR MOST
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS FROM
TOPSHAM THROUGH WISCASSET SHOULD THIN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...WITH
SPS ONGOING THROUGH 13Z LOOKING GOOD. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HAVE ISSUED SPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AS PATCHY DENSE FOG
CONTINUES ALONG THE MIDCOAST REGION AND PORTIONS OF ANDROSCOGGIN
COUNTY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH SOME
LIMITED CAPE IN THE SOUNDING OVER SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN
THIS REGION DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS SIMILAR TO WFO
BOX GRIDS. THIS TIMING IS ALSO IN STEP WITH LATEST SUITE OF
MESOSCALE MODELS. WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SMALL HAIL...NOT
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY...BUT THERE IS THAT POSSIBILITY
WITH CONTINUING LOW FREEZING LEVELS.
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY
WITH READINGS NEAR FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING AS ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINISHES
AROUND SUNSET AS IT MOVES OFF THE COASTLINE. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE AS READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
NORTH.
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. IT WILL FEEL MORE WINTERLIKE WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS IS POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST
STORM. WHILE THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM
WILL DEVELOP...THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST WITH ITS TRACK THAT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD STAY OFFSHORE. THE 00Z GFS IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW
RESEMBLES THE GFS SOLUTION. THE 00Z GGEM AND NAM HAVE COME IN
LOOKING SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF...FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER. THE
DIFERENCE`S IN TRACK APPEAR TO REVOLVE AROUND THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS AND NOW ECMWF ARE SLOWER IN
CAPTURING THE SURFACE LOW AND THEREFORE ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS
TRACK. THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAPTURE THE
SURFACE LOW QUICKER RESULTING IN A FURTHER WEST TRACK. GIVEN THAT
THIS EVENT WON`T UNFOLD UNTIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WE CHOOSE TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS WILL BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH A COUPLE MORE
TIMES BEFORE LOCKING INTO A SOLUTION.
HAVING SAID THIS...PEOPLE TRAVELING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS AS THIS STORM HAS HIGH
IMPACT POTENTIAL. CIPS ANALOG PAGES SHOW SOME EVENTS SIMILAR TO
THIS THAT HAVE YIELDED DOUBLE DIGIT SNOW. WHILE THIS IS A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO...IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND LOCAL EM DSS SLIDE.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE MIDWEEK AS AN EAST
COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MIDCOAST REGION NEAR IWI.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL RAISE THE FLAGS AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THANKS FOR
THE COLLABORATION.
LONG TERM...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA LEVELS AND POSSIBLY
GALES DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
EAST.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LULOFS
AVIATION...CANNON
MARINE...CANNON/LULOFS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
730 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A STRATUS DECK INTO MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO IN
ITS WAKE. THIS AFTERNOON...AREAS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER
THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI AS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OVER
PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE AND SRN DELTA COUNTIES AIDED BY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THIN AND CELLULAR LOOK TO
THESE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SUGGEST THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIDED ON COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE HIGH-RES CANADIAN WHICH HAD LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SPREAD WEAK LIFT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/FAR NORTH
CWA. AS WINDS SHIFT WNW BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW-LVL
MOISTURE INCREASES AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN TO -10C
TO -11C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO WRN
UPPER MI AND THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES/ISOLD SHSN AS 85H TEMPS
LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE
SHARPER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE LAKE INTO
ONTARIO EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FROPA ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
HAVE AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES.
FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA SUN
EVENING INTO EARLY SUN NIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/EFFECT SNOW TO NW WIND SNOWBELTS. 850MB TEMPS ARE -10C
TO -12C AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THEN DROP TO -13C TO -15C LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS TURN WLY BY 00Z TUE. MOISTURE
IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...SO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MODELS
DEPICT 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS SUN
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS
DURING THE DAY MON. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S WHERE SNOW
FALLS AND HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 30 N TO THE UPPER 30S SCENTRAL.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AND
WILL MOVE ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS OR JUST S OF THE CWA
AT THE SFC. FGEN FORCING AND WAA ALONG THE SLOPED FRONT WILL ASSIST
IN PROVIDING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW BETWEEN 06Z AND 21Z TUE...MOST
AREAS WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW IN 3-6 HOURS. MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT
PLACEMENT OF SNOW DUE TO PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONT/FGEN/SHORTWAVE...DETAILS OF WHERE THE BEST SNOW FALL IS
UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z/19 GFS IS FARTHER N AND KEEPS THE WI BORDER AREAS
DRIEST (BUT STILL SEEING PRECIP) WHILE THE 00Z/19 ECMWF IS FARTHER S
AND KEEPS THE NRN TIER DRIEST. THE 12Z/19 NAM COMES IN BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF FOR PLACEMENT OF BEST PRECIP. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AND BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS POINT. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE THE GREATEST SNOW
FALLS...WHICH MAY BE DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND E...AND IF THAT FALLS IN 3-6 HOURS IT COULD BRIEFLY
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. SNOW LOOKS TO MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE
DAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE FAR SCENTRAL.
WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE WEEK...IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE WED NIGHT-FRI TIME FRAME (DEPENDING ON
MODEL). MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE THE BEST PRECIP (AROUND AN INCH OF QPF
WITH AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR MAKING SNOW THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE) ALONG OR
SE OF THE SERN BORDER OF THE CWA...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
TRENDING NW. A LOT OF VARIABLES AT PLAY FOR 5-6 DAYS OUT...SO WILL
JUST HAVE TO KEEP CLOSELY MONITORING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE
TAF SITES. SOME LINGERING DIURNAL AND UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER WILL
LINGER AT CMX EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD GIVING MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUD
COVER TO DIMINISH. A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL GIVE
CEILINGS DROPPING BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAFS SITES
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP CEILINGS FROM FALLING TOO LOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW
FLURRIES/-SHSN BUT LIMITED MOISTURE GIVES LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR.
OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY MAINLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS UNTIL E-NE WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1250 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S. INSTABILITY CUMULUS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE H5 LOW
SLOWLY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. THE ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW IS
STILL IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOWSHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURED FAIRLY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN THEN TO THE MID ATLANTIC. A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND AN ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT
850 MB...TEMPERATURES WERE AS COLD AS -10 DEGREES C OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. A DISTURBANCE WAS SPREADING PCPN
EASTWARD FROM COLORADO ACROSS KANSAS...WHICH WILL ALSO AFFECT
PARTS OF MISSOURI. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THAT SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH BASED ON RECENT RAP AND HRRR FCSTS. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE
SINKING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA...SO HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
TONIGHT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL 850-500 MB MOISTURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD INITIALLY
BE WEAK...BUT 700 MB OMEGA VALUES INCREASE ON SATURDAY. QPF VALUES
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW APPEAR
POSSIBLE. PCPN TYPE COULD BE MOSTLY SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BASED ON WET BULB TEMPERATURES FROM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 40 NORTH AND LOWER
TO MID 40S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH POOR MIXING DUE TO
GENERALLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
MILDER AIR BACK IN FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...
SHOWING A 500 MB RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THAT RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
EASTWARD...BUT FLATTENS AS IS DOES SO THROUGH MONDAY. BY THAT
TIME...A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS.
GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AN GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE MID AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE BULK OF PCPN TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CUMULUS INCREASING MULTIPLE BKN CLOUD LAYERS
THIS AFTERNOON FL035-050 AND FL080-100. THERE MAY BE A FEW
SNOWSHOWERS...HOWEVER DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS. LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY LOOK FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AS THE
H5 LOW EXPANDS OVER IOWA. DO MENTION LOWERING CIGS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AND LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES AT KOFK
AND KOMA AFTER 11Z. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20KTS DECREASING TO
UNDER 10KTS TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASING AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING
10 TO 20KTS AND GUSTY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
644 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURED FAIRLY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN THEN TO THE MID ATLANTIC. A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND AN ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT
850 MB...TEMPERATURES WERE AS COLD AS -10 DEGREES C OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. A DISTURBANCE WAS SPREADING PCPN
EASTWARD FROM COLORADO ACROSS KANSAS...WHICH WILL ALSO AFFECT
PARTS OF MISSOURI. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THAT SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH BASED ON RECENT RAP AND HRRR FCSTS. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE
SINKING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA...SO HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
TONIGHT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL 850-500 MB MOISTURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD INITIALLY
BE WEAK...BUT 700 MB OMEGA VALUES INCREASE ON SATURDAY. QPF VALUES
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW APPEAR
POSSIBLE. PCPN TYPE COULD BE MOSTLY SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BASED ON WET BULB TEMPERATURES FROM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 40 NORTH AND LOWER
TO MID 40S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH POOR MIXING DUE TO
GENERALLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
MILDER AIR BACK IN FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...
SHOWING A 500 MB RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THAT RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
EASTWARD...BUT FLATTENS AS IS DOES SO THROUGH MONDAY. BY THAT
TIME...A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS.
GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AN GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE MID AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE BULK OF PCPN TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SITES THROUGH THE MORNING
AS A SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI BUT THESE SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURED FAIRLY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN THEN TO THE MID ATLANTIC. A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND AN ANTICYLONE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT
850 MB...TEMPERATURES WERE AS COLD AS -10 DEGREES C OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. A DISTURBANCE WAS SPREADING PCPN
EASTWARD FROM COLORADO ACROSS KANSAS...WHICH WILL ALSO AFFECT
PARTS OF MISSOURI. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THAT SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH BASED ON RECENT RAP AND HRRR FCSTS. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE
SINKING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA...SO HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
TONIGHT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL 850-500 MB MOISTURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD INITIALLY
BE WEAK...BUT 700 MB OMEGA VALUES INCREASE ON SATURDAY. QPF VALUES
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW APPEAR
POSSIBLE. PCPN TYPE COULD BE MOSTLY SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BASED ON WET BULB TEMPERATURES FROM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 40 NORTH AND LOWER
TO MID 40S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH POOR MIXING DUE TO
GENERALLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
MILDER AIR BACK IN FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...
SHOWING A 500 MB RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THAT RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
EASTWARD...BUT FLATTENS AS IS DOES SO THROUGH MONDAY. BY THAT
TIME...A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS.
GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AN GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE MID AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE BULK OF PCPN TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. FRONTOGENETIC
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
631 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY. A DRY BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
MONDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 630 AM FRI...FAIRLY DENSE CIRRUS DECK STREAMING THROUGH E
NC EARLY THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NC AND
SHOULD MOVE OFF NC COAST THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY. BACK DOOR COOL FRONT HAS ALL BUT PASSED THROUGH THE
AREA...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CRYSTAL COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOW TD`S.
LL THICKNESS VALS ON PAR WITH WARMER MOS GUID IN MOST AREAS
REACHING THE LOW/MID 70S. NE WINDS OVER THE OBX AND SOUND COUNTIES
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S HERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...HAVE INC LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT AS
MODELS ARE FASTER WITH BRINGING IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAK
OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND FAR SRN ZONES AS
MODEL GUID HAS SPED UP WITH APPROACHING LOW PRES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM FRI... LOW PRES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...OOZ MDLS ARE NOW MORE SIMILAR WITH
TIMING/TRACK OF LOW PRES CROSSING AREA. LOOKS A BIT FASTER NOW
WITH MAIN IMPACTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO
INCREASE IN CVRG THRU THE DAY SAT AND HAVE POPS LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING RANGING FROM LIKELY INLAND TO CAT COAST AS LOW
TRACKS RIGHT NEAR CST. THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE LATER
SAT NIGHT AND SHLD SEE RAIN BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HIGHS
SAT WILL RANGE FROM UPR 50S NW/N WHERE NE FLOW EXPECTED TO 60S
FURTHER S AND E WHERE SOME ONSHORE WINDS LIKELY. LOWS SAT NIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S WELL INLAND UPR 40S/LOWER 50S
BEACHES.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE
WITH DEPARTING LOW SUNDAY HOWEVER UPR TRF IS STILL APPROACHING SO
WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER RAINFALL WILL
NOT BE VERY HEAVY SUNDAY. AS THE UPR TRF CROSSES SUN NIGHT
LINGERING RAIN SHLD END FROM W TO E. MUCH COOLER THIS PERIOD WITH
MAINLY NW WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW...HIGHS SUN IN THE 50S WITH
LOWS SUN NIGHT 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S BEACHES.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER TO BEGIN THE WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND TO
AROUND 40 BEACHES MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF FROST INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL WARM UP MID
WEEK AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND SLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S RETURNING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRI...WIDESPREAD CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT THOUGH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION. THESE HIGHER
CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD LIMIT
FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NE TODAY
THEN LIGHT/VAR TONIGHT. CLOUDS INC OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT LOW.
LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB VFR DEVELOPING SAT AND
CONT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES TRACKS NE NEAR CST WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CIGS. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS HOWEVER SOME LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER ESPCLY
THRU SUN EVENING. VFR EXPECTED MON THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM FRI...UPDATE TO ISSUE SCA FOR PAMLICO AND SOUTHERN
WATERS AS NE SURGE IS MODERATELY STRONG WITH GUSTS B/T 25-30 KT
CURRENTLY. HRRR DOING A GOOD JOB CAPTURING THE SURGE AND BASED
MORNING FCST ON THIS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LONG PERIOD (14-16 SEC) SWELL CONTINUES TO
BE THE DOMINANT PERIOD THIS MORNING WITH SEAS 3-5 FT CONTINUING.
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE E NC WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS 15-25 KT OCCURRING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS AS SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SURGE IN
WINDS SUPERIMPOSED ON THE CONTINUED LONG PERIOD NE SWELL ENERGY.
OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL AFFLICT REST OF THE OUTER WATERS THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH DURATION TO ISSUE SCA ATTM. THE NE SURGE WILL PEAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN VEER MORE EASTERLY AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AND BECOME LIGHT/VBL TONIGHT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT.
LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM FRI...LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE ALONG CST
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT THEN DEPART TO THE NE SLOWLY SUN INTO MON.
WITH LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR CNTRL/SRN WTRS WIND DIR WILL BE
TRICKY LATER SAT AND SAT EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME SIGNIF DIR
CHANGES. FOR NOW SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS THRU SAT WITH
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. AS LOW DEPARTS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WIND DIR WILL
BECOME MORE N TO NW AND INCREASE A BIT TO 15 TO 25 KTS. THESEWINDS
WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT OR SO SEAS MAINLY SUNDAY OVER CNTRL/NRN
WTRS. WNW WINDS REMAIN GUSTY IN WAKE OF LOW MON AS HIGH PRES
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W...SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 6 FT OVER
OUTER WATERS THRU MON. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUE AS HIGH
BUILDS OVER...WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO
2 TO 3 FEET.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF/SK
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AND TRACK SE
OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING INDICATED VERY DEEP MIXING TODAY...WITH
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (ESSENTIALLY DRY ADIABATIC) AS HIGH AS
12KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE. DECOUPLING AFTER 00Z HAS QUICKLY SET
IN...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KNOTS...AND A QUICK DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. THERE IS AN OBVIOUS WSW-TO-ENE BOUNDARY ON KILN
RADAR...NOW APPROACHING THE WILMINGTON AREA. WINDS BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY HAVE SHIFTED (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) TO THE NORTHWEST.
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED...AS THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH NOTHING TO SHOW FOR IT ON ANY OF THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. VIRGA (WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
REACHING THE GROUND) WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...THOUGH RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND VIRGA COMING IN LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
EITHER WAY...AT THIS POINT...IT IS ESSENTIALLY A ZERO-IMPACT
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ROUGHLY ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...ALLOWING FOR A BIGGER DROP THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH
MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR THE ILN CWA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW TO OPEN UP AND DROP
SE THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP MIXING HAS LED TO GUSTY
WINDS AND DRIER AIR. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH...ALONG WITH RH
VALUES RH VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT. THESE VALUES ALONG WITH 10
HOUR FUEL VALUES OF 5 TO 7 PERCENT HAS PLACED THE REGION IN RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING THRU 8
PM...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND RH VALUES START TO
COME UP.
DIURNAL CU FIELD EVIDENT ON SATL IMGRY...THICKEST OVER THE EAST...
WHERE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED. THESE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. AFTER THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS FROM THE
MID 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE LEFT OVER PV WILL START TO CLOSE
OFF AND FORM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER IOWA. GLOBAL MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE HERE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER FORECASTED AT THE SURFACE. AS OF CURRENT
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN PROGRESSING THE LOW TO QUICKLY
TO THE EAST WHILE THE NAM AND EURO HOLD THE LOW BACK FOR SLIGHTLY
LONGER. GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN THAT IS INITIALLY FORECASTED TO
SET UP HAVE TRENDED THE GRIDS TO THE SLOWER EURO/ NAM SOLUTION.
FOR FRIDAY AM EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
CONDITIONS AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO
DECREASE. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FORECASTED. HAVE
ALSO CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCE OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTH. HAVE EXPANDED
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA GIVEN THE UPPER LOW EVEN
THOUGH MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE (PWATS AROUND 0.40").
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS REMAINED HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GENERAL SOLUTION APPEARS FOR MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES FOR SATURDAY WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WITH ALL SNOW AND ALL RAIN AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL DICTATE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM. THIS REGIME WILL
FEATURE LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE PERIOD ALLOWING A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FOR SUNDAY...A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE ILN AREA. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES MONDAY WHEN THE LOW WILL BE TRACKING TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.
PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION ON TUESDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE MOVING EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTH NEAR A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ALIGNED ALONG A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. A
COLD FRONT SAGGING TOWARD THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THAT
SCENARIO DUE TO MODEL TIMING INCONSISTENCY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S. WARM ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BOOST READINGS TO NEAR NORMAL 50S ON TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE
60S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY
EXPECT JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALTHOUGH A FEW LOWER VFR
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE THE HIGHEST AT KCMH AND KLCK AND THE LIGHTEST AT KCVG AND KLUK.
HAVE WIND GUSTS IN ALL OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KCVG AND KLUK.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WENT WITH
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH HOLDS PRECIPTIATION OFF UNTIL SATURDAY
AND THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION IN AT THE LONGER
KCVG TAF.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SOME IFR VISIBILITIES MAY
BE POSSIBLE IF PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AT MOST TAF SITES. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. CHANCES TOO LOW IN SOME PLACES AND/OR SOME
TIMES FOR MENTION IN TAF. HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS IN
SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/
UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AS WELL AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS WELL.
DISCUSSION...
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN
HAZARD ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
4 AM TO NOON ON FRIDAY.
BEFORE 4 AM TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ON THE 850 MB FRONT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW STRONG OR SEVERE LIMITS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET
AND AFFECT MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A MANGUM TO PAULS VALLEY TO
DURANT LINE. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THESE
STORMS FORMING JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DUE TO
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MUCAPE 500-2000 J/KG AND STRONG
SHEAR...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 45-55 KT...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AND
MULTICELLS WOULD RESULT SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. SOME HAILSTONES MAY BE
NEAR THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. A FEW REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS OF 60
TO 70 MPH COULD OCCUR AS WELL...BUT IS LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. NO TORNADOES ARE
EXPECTED. STORMS MAY FIRST FORM NEAR THE ALTUS...HOBART...LAWTON...
OR FREDERICK AREAS IN THE 4 TO 7 AM TIME FRAME THEN MOVE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST...PERHAPS ORGANIZING INTO A CLUSTER OR LINE. NOT
EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT...BUT SOME REPORTS OF HAIL AND
WIND ARE POSSIBLE. MOST STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA
CITY METRO AREA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY AND COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALL DURING THE
DAY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY FORM BEHIND THE THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/
DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT SOME
SITES. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH BEST CHANCE BEING FRIDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HI RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE RED RIVER TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY SATURDAY AS DRY COOLER AIR FILLS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING MAY SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN MONDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S AND 70S. LEANED TOWARD MOS GUIDANCE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOK TO HAVE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AS GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH THE
DRY AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 46 53 33 56 / 20 40 10 0
HOBART OK 44 52 31 57 / 40 40 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 49 59 37 58 / 40 70 10 0
GAGE OK 36 47 25 55 / 20 30 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 40 50 28 55 / 10 50 10 0
DURANT OK 52 62 40 58 / 20 70 40 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ004>020.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/25/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF SPELL OF CHILLY CONDITIONS...BUT WILL
QUICKLY LIFT OUT...FOLLOWED BY AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE BRINGING MUCH
MILDER CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT...WITH
850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM...HAS HELPED TO
BLOSSOM SCT-BKN...HIGH-BASED CU AND STRATO CU ACRS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENN.
THICKER...LAYERED CLOUDS /JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK/ WERE
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT...ALBEIT GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NCENT
MTNS OF PENN. THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL BRING UP TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AS THEY HEAD QUICKLY OFF TO THE
ESE ACROSS THE SUSQ`S MIDDLE AND WEST BRANCH COMMUNITIES...AND
OVER THE WESTERN POCONOS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTN...BUT LG SCALE FORCING AS INFERRED BY MDL
500-300MB QVEC CONV FIELDS IS VERY WEAK...SO LITTLE MORE THAN A
FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS VERY MINIMAL. THE BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF
THE NORTHERN MTNS...AND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE BASICALLY VOID OF QPF ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS INDICATED TO
DISSIPATE NEAR THE RT 6 CORRIDOR IN NRN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT SCHC POPS /15-20 PERCENT/
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 30 POPS OVER THE NORTH
EXPECT THE CURRENT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO PEAK OUT MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30KT RANGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BELT OF 40-45KT
800 MB WINDS WILL EXIT EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BY 19Z...SO THE
PEAK GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE SHORTLY.
TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THEIR FCST MAX VALUES...RANGING FROM THE L-M40S
OVR THE NRN MTNS...TO AROUND 60F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS
INTO PA TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS THE LOWEST SEEN IN SOME
TIME...RANGING FROM THE L20S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE L30S IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PWAT AIR MASS NOSING
INTO PA SHOULD ENSURE A DRY SATURDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN
PA.
HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF 12Z GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF DATA STILL
SUGGESTS A BIT OF LIGHT...WET SNOW/RAIN SPREADING INTO THE SRN
TIER COUNTIES OF PENN BY THE AFTN HOURS ASSOC WITH A LEAD SHOT OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...TO THE EAST OF A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY...AND NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING SFC
LOW OVR THE S APPALACHIANS.
BLENDED QPF SUGGESTS A LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IS POSS OVR THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF SOMERSET/BEDFORD CO BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH LITTLE
CHC OF MEASURABLE ACCUM ELSEWHERE AT ELEVATION BLO 1700 FT MSL.
EARLY SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY SHOULD FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS
/ESP SOUTH/ WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S-M40S /OR -5 TO -10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON BEHIND US...THE
COMPLACENCY OF A RATHER MILD WINTER MAY HAVE SET IN WITH AN TASTE
OF LATE-SPRING WARMTH/60-70+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES ALREADY OBSERVED
IN MOST PLACES ACROSS PA. BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOTHER NATURE MAY BE
REMINDING US OF THE HIGHLY VOLATILE TEMPERATURE AND SENSIBLE
WEATHER SWINGS THAT SPRINGTIME CAN DELIVER.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING TOWARD A MEAN
TROUGH IN THE EAST THAT WILL SUPPORT A STRONGLY DEEPENING SFC LOW
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS. BULK OF 00Z FRIDAY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ONE PIECE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST WILL BREAK OFF AND
LIFT THRU PA SAT EVENING...PRODUCING THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
WILL THREATEN PRIMARILY SE PA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. GEFS PLUMES SHOWING WIDELY VARYING AMTS BASED ON EXACT
SFC LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...WARNING TYPE AMTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
APPEAR UNLIKELY BASED ON 00Z GEFS PROBS AS WELL AS THE LATEST OPER
ECMWF/CANADIAN RUNS.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WHILE NARROWING TO A CERTAIN
DEGREE...STILL RESULT IN A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CONFIDENCE/RISK
HAS INCREASED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN AN INCREASE IN POPS
TO LKLY OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION IS HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE MODELS...THE FCST DETAILS
REMAIN VERY IN QUESTION WITH COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS (TEMPS/PTYPES) AND ELEVATION
DEPENDENCY WITH SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F
/ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/...NOT TO MENTION TIMING DIFFERENCES.
THE STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS/WARM
GROUND TEMPS GIVEN THE RECENT MILD SPELL MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GRASS AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THUS
MITIGATING IMPACTS TO SOME EXTENT. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE-SEASON
SNOW EVENTS IN CENTRAL PA. OVERALL WE HAVE STARTED TO HEDGE THE
FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE SNOW VS. RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ODDS
OF ACCUMULATION TRENDING HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND BRISK/GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
LOW (NOR`EASTER?) AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE MARITIMES... WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LKLY OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE NICELY INTO THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SW
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC. DRY WX MON NGT-TUE IS FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES
LATER TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGIONAL AIRFIELDS LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL BRING SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MTNS OF PENN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND KBFD /WITH
SHORT-LIVED LOCAL REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE THERE - BUT PROB LOW ENOUGH
TO NOT MENTION IN TAF/.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKIES FILLED WITH A BKN LAYER OF HIGH-BASED
CU OR ALTOCU ELSEWHERE.
THE BIGGER STORY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WINDS THE GUSTY
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH
IN MOST PLACES...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH THROUGH
21Z. SOME HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PENN FROM KJST-KAOO/KUNV-KMDT. THIS ARE WILL BE
BENEATH A BELT OF 40-45 KT WINDS UP AT AROUND 4000 FT AGL. THE
PEAK GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS THIS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS SLIDES OFF INTO EASTER
PENN AND THE DEPTH OF VERTICAL MOMENTUM MIXING DECREASES A LITTLE.
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING...SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH QUICKLY WANE AS DIURNAL HEATING
DIMINISHES.
MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT VFR CONTINUES
ELSEWHERE. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE FROM SW-NE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH BORDERLINE MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHOF KJST AFTER 19Z.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS SPREAD SW-NE ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT SNOW
BECOMES LIKELY SW LATE.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING /ESP SOUTH AND EAST / WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS.
MON...QUITE BREEZY. RESTRICTIONS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR TO BRIEF MVFR ELSEWHERE.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW MTNS. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH PA FIRE MANAGERS THE ASSESSMENT IS THAT
FUELS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST AFTER RECENT RAINS AND WILL TAKE
SEVERAL DAYS TO DRY OUT. THUS...NO RED FLAG ISSUANCE IS PLANNED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY AND FAST SPREAD
IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW RH...BUT NOT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
116 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF SPELL OF CHILLY CONDITIONS...BUT WILL
QUICKLY LIFT OUT...FOLLOWED BY AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE BRINGING MUCH
MILDER CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT...WITH
850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM...HAS HELPED TO
BLOSSOM SCT-BKN...HIGH-BASED CU AND STRATO CU ACRS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENN.
THICKER...LAYERED CLOUDS /JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK/ WERE
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT...ALBEIT GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NCENT
MTNS OF PENN. THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL BRING UP TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AS THEY HEAD QUICKLY OFF TO THE
ESE ACROSS THE SUSQ`S MIDDLE AND WEST BRANCH COMMUNITIES...AND
OVER THE WESTERN POCONOS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTN...BUT LG SCALE FORCING AS INFERRED BY MDL
500-300MB QVEC CONV FIELDS IS VERY WEAK...SO LITTLE MORE THAN A
FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS VERY MINIMAL. THE BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF
THE NORTHERN MTNS...AND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE BASICALLY VOID OF QPF ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS INDICATED TO
DISSIPATE NEAR THE RT 6 CORRIDOR IN NRN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT SCHC POPS /15-20 PERCENT/
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 30 POPS OVER THE NORTH
EXPECT THE CURRENT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO PEAK OUT MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30KT RANGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BELT OF 40-45KT
800 MB WINDS WILL EXIT EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BY 19Z...SO THE
PEAK GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE SHORTLY.
TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THEIR FCST MAX VALUES...RANGING FROM THE L-M40S
OVR THE NRN MTNS...TO AROUND 60F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS
INTO PA TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS THE LOWEST SEEN IN SOME
TIME...RANGING FROM THE L20S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE L30S IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PWAT AIR MASS NOSING
INTO PA SHOULD ENSURE A DRY SATURDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN
PA.
HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF 12Z GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF DATA STILL
SUGGESTS A BIT OF LIGHT...WET SNOW/RAIN SPREADING INTO THE SRN
TIER COUNTIES OF PENN BY THE AFTN HOURS ASSOC WITH A LEAD SHOT OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...TO THE EAST OF A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY...AND NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING SFC
LOW OVR THE S APPALACHIANS.
BLENDED QPF SUGGESTS A LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IS POSS OVR THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF SOMERSET/BEDFORD CO BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH LITTLE
CHC OF MEASURABLE ACCUM ELSEWHERE AT ELEVATION BLO 1700 FT MSL.
EARLY SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY SHOULD FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS
/ESP SOUTH/ WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S-M40S /OR -5 TO -10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON BEHIND US...THE
COMPLACENCY OF A RATHER MILD WINTER MAY HAVE SET IN WITH AN TASTE
OF LATE-SPRING WARMTH/60-70+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES ALREADY OBSERVED
IN MOST PLACES ACROSS PA. BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOTHER NATURE MAY BE
REMINDING US OF THE HIGHLY VOLATILE TEMPERATURE AND SENSIBLE
WEATHER SWINGS THAT SPRINGTIME CAN DELIVER.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING TOWARD A MEAN
TROUGH IN THE EAST THAT WILL SUPPORT A STRONGLY DEEPENING SFC LOW
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS. BULK OF 00Z FRIDAY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ONE PIECE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST WILL BREAK OFF AND
LIFT THRU PA SAT EVENING...PRODUCING THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
WILL THREATEN PRIMARILY SE PA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. GEFS PLUMES SHOWING WIDELY VARYING AMTS BASED ON EXACT
SFC LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...WARNING TYPE AMTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
APPEAR UNLIKELY BASED ON 00Z GEFS PROBS AS WELL AS THE LATEST OPER
ECMWF/CANADIAN RUNS.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WHILE NARROWING TO A CERTAIN
DEGREE...STILL RESULT IN A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CONFIDENCE/RISK
HAS INCREASED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN AN INCREASE IN POPS
TO LKLY OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION IS HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE MODELS...THE FCST DETAILS
REMAIN VERY IN QUESTION WITH COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS (TEMPS/PTYPES) AND ELEVATION
DEPENDENCY WITH SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F
/ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/...NOT TO MENTION TIMING DIFFERENCES.
THE STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS/WARM
GROUND TEMPS GIVEN THE RECENT MILD SPELL MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GRASS AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THUS
MITIGATING IMPACTS TO SOME EXTENT. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE-SEASON
SNOW EVENTS IN CENTRAL PA. OVERALL WE HAVE STARTED TO HEDGE THE
FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE SNOW VS. RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ODDS
OF ACCUMULATION TRENDING HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND BRISK/GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
LOW (NOR`EASTER?) AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE MARITIMES... WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LKLY OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE NICELY INTO THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SW
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC. DRY WX MON NGT-TUE IS FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES
LATER TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGIONAL AIRFIELDS LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL BRING SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MTNS OF PENN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND KBFD /WITH
SHORT-LIVED LOCAL REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE THERE - BUT PROB LOW ENOUGH
TO NOT MENTION IN TAF/.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKIES FILLED WITH A BKN LAYER OF HIGH-BASED
CU OR ALTOCU ELSEWHERE.
THE BIGGER STORY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WINDS THE GUSTY
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH
IN MOST PLACES...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH THROUGH
21Z. SOME HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PENN FROM KJST-KAOO/KUNV-KMDT. THIS ARE WILL BE
BENEATH A BELT OF 40-45 KT WINDS UP AT AROUND 4000 FT AGL. THE
PEAK GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS THIS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS SLIDES OFF INTO EASTER
PENN AND THE DEPTH OF VERTICAL MOMENTUM MIXING DECREASES A LITTLE.
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING...SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH QUICKLY WANE AS DIURNAL HEATING
DIMINISHES.
MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT VFR CONTINUES
ELSEWHERE. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE FROM SW-NE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH BORDERLINE MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHOF KJST AFTER 19Z.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS SPREAD SW-NE ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT SNOW
BECOMES LIKELY SW LATE.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING /ESP SOUTH AND EAST / WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS.
MON...QUITE BREEZY. RESTRICTIONS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR TO BRIEF MVFR ELSEWHERE.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW MTNS. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH PA FIRE MANAGERS THE ASSESSMENT IS THAT
FUELS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST /AOA 10 PERCENT/ AFTER RECENT RAINS
AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO DRY OUT. THUS...NO RED FLAG
ISSUANCE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN FIRE
ACTIVITY AND FAST SPREAD IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW
RH...BUT NOT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1213 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT WITH AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE LIKELY ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THIS UPDATE.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BLANKETS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN AT
NOON...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF THE STATE...WHERE
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE...DUAL-LAYERED STRATOCU DECK
WAS PRESSING SOUTH AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT.
DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD YIELD
INCREASING CU AND THE CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTN...MAINLY
ACROSS NRN PENN.
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTN...BUT LG SCALE FORCING AS INFERRED BY MDL
500-300MB QVEC CONV FIELDS IS VERY WEAK. THE BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF
THE NORTHERN MTNS.
THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE BASICALLY VOID OF QPF ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS INDICATED TO
DISSIPATE NEAR THE RT 6 CORRIDOR IN NRN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT IN COMPLETELY FOLLOWING THIS DRY...SHORT
RANGE/HIGH RES GUIDANCE THOUGH...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE 88D LOOP
SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXPANDING A BIT ACROSS THE NRN MTNS
WHILE DRIFTING QUICKLY TO THE ESE.
THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT SCHC POPS /15-20 PERCENT/
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 30 POPS OVER THE NORTH
EXPECT THE CURRENT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO INCREASE BY ANOTHER 5 KTS OR
SO...AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT READILY MIX TO THE SFC WITHIN THE
DEEP BLYR. BUKFIT SOUNDINGS AND HRRR SUPPORT WGUSTS DURING THE
AFTN OF 30-35KTS...AND WE/RE CURRENTLY SEEING THESE TYPE OF GUSTS
AT KUNV...KDUJ AND KJST/. PEAK WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY JUST UNDER
ADVISORY OF G40KT.
GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE L40S OVR THE NW
MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS
INTO PA TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS THE LOWEST IN SOME TIME...RANGING
FROM THE L20S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE L30S IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS NOSING INTO PA
SHOULD ENSURE A DRY SATURDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...BULK
OF GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS A BIT OF LGT SNOW/RAIN WILL WORK INTO
THE S TIER COUNTIES BY AFTN ASSOC WITH DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVR THE
S APPALACHIANS. BLENDED QPF SUGGESTS A LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IS POSS
OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET/BEDFORD CO BY EVENING...WITH
LITTLE CHC OF MEASURABLE ACCUM ELSEWHERE.
EARLY SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY SHOULD FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS
/ESP SOUTH/ WITH MAX TEMPS MID 30S-M40S OR -5 TO -10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON BEHIND US...THE
COMPLACENCY OF A RATHER MILD WINTER MAY HAVE SET IN WITH AN TASTE
OF LATE-SPRING WARMTH/60-70+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES ALREADY OBSERVED
IN MOST PLACES ACROSS PA. BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOTHER NATURE MAY BE
REMINDING US OF THE HIGHLY VOLATILE TEMPERATURE AND SENSIBLE
WEATHER SWINGS THAT SPRINGTIME CAN DELIVER.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING TOWARD A MEAN
TROUGH IN THE EAST THAT WILL SUPPORT A STRONGLY DEEPENING SFC LOW
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS. BULK OF 00Z FRIDAY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ONE PIECE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST WILL BREAK OFF AND
LIFT THRU PA SAT EVENING...PRODUCING THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
WILL THREATEN PRIMARILY SE PA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. GEFS PLUMES SHOWING WIDELY VARYING AMTS BASED ON EXACT
SFC LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...WARNING TYPE AMTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
APPEAR UNLIKELY BASED ON 00Z GEFS PROBS AS WELL AS THE LATEST OPER
ECMWF/CANADIAN RUNS.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WHILE NARROWING TO A CERTAIN
DEGREE...STILL RESULT IN A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CONFIDENCE/RISK
HAS INCREASED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN AN INCREASE IN POPS
TO LKLY OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION IS HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE MODELS...THE FCST DETAILS
REMAIN VERY IN QUESTION WITH COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS (TEMPS/PTYPES) AND ELEVATION
DEPENDENCY WITH SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F
/ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/...NOT TO MENTION TIMING DIFFERENCES.
THE STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS/WARM
GROUND TEMPS GIVEN THE RECENT MILD SPELL MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GRASS AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THUS
MITIGATING IMPACTS TO SOME EXTENT. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE-SEASON
SNOW EVENTS IN CENTRAL PA. OVERALL WE HAVE STARTED TO HEDGE THE
FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE SNOW VS. RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ODDS
OF ACCUMULATION TRENDING HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND BRISK/GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
LOW (NOR`EASTER?) AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE MARITIMES... WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LKLY OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE NICELY INTO THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SW
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC. DRY WX MON NGT-TUE IS FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES
LATER TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGIONAL AIRFIELDS LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL BRING SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MTNS OF PENN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND KBFD /WITH
SHORT-LIVED LOCAL REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE THERE - BUT PROB LOW ENOUGH
TO NOT MENTION IN TAF/.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKIES FILLING WITH HIGH-BASED CU OR ALTOCU
ELSEWHERE.
THE BIGGER STORY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WINDS THE GUSTY
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH
IN MOST PLACES...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH THROUGH
21Z. SOME HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45 MPH ARE LIKELY FROM KJST-
KAOO- KMDT.
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH QUICKLY WANE. MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT
VFR CONTINUES ELSEWHERE. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH...BUT SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS SPREAD SW-NE ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT SNOW
BECOMES LIKELY SW LATE.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING /ESP SOUTH AND EAST / WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS.
MON...QUITE BREEZY. RESTRICTIONS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR TO BRIEF MVFR ELSEWHERE.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW MTNS. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH PA FIRE MANAGERS THE ASSESSMENT IS THAT
FUELS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST AFTER RECENT RAINS AND WILL TAKE
SEVERAL DAY TO DRY OUT. THUS...NO RED FLAG ISSUANCE IS PLANNED AT
THIS TIME. AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY AND FAST SPREAD IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW RH...BUT NOT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1039 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT WITH AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE LIKELY ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BLANKETS ALL OF THE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER...WHERE THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE...DUAL-LAYERED STRATOCU DECK WAS
PRESSING SOUTH AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT.
DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD YIELD
INCREASING CU AND THE CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTN...MAINLY
ACROSS NRN PENN.
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTN...BUT LG SCALE FORCING AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB QVEC CONV
FIELDS IS VERY WEAK. THE BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE NORTHERN MTNS. LATEST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE BASICALLY DRY FOR QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH SHOWERS INDICATED TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE RT 6 CORRIDOR
IN NRN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
REMOVE ALL POPS FROM THE FCST...GIVEN THE FACT THAT SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE 88D LOOP /WHERE THE HRRR IS TOTALLY
DRY ATTM/. SO...WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT SCHC POPS /15-20
PERCENT/ ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 30 POPS OVER
THE NORTH
EXPECT A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS BY MIDDAY...AS STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT READILY MIX TO THE SFC WITHIN THE DEEPENING BLYR. BUKFIT
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR SUPPORT WGUSTS DURING THE AFTN OF 30-35KTS.
GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE L40S OVR THE NW
MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS
INTO PA TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS THE LOWEST IN SOME TIME...RANGING
FROM THE L20S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE L30S IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS NOSING INTO PA
SHOULD ENSURE A DRY SATURDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...BULK
OF GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS A BIT OF LGT SNOW/RAIN WILL WORK INTO
THE S TIER COUNTIES BY AFTN ASSOC WITH DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVR THE
S APPALACHIANS. BLENDED QPF SUGGESTS A LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IS POSS
OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET/BEDFORD CO BY EVENING...WITH
LITTLE CHC OF MEASURABLE ACCUM ELSEWHERE.
EARLY SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY SHOULD FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS
/ESP SOUTH/ WITH MAX TEMPS MID 30S-M40S OR -5 TO -10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON BEHIND US...THE
COMPLACENCY OF A RATHER MILD WINTER MAY HAVE SET IN WITH AN TASTE
OF LATE-SPRING WARMTH/60-70+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES ALREADY OBSERVED
IN MOST PLACES ACROSS PA. BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOTHER NATURE MAY BE
REMINDING US OF THE HIGHLY VOLATILE TEMPERATURE AND SENSIBLE
WEATHER SWINGS THAT SPRINGTIME CAN DELIVER.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING TOWARD A MEAN
TROUGH IN THE EAST THAT WILL SUPPORT A STRONGLY DEEPENING SFC LOW
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS. BULK OF 00Z FRIDAY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ONE PIECE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST WILL BREAK OFF AND
LIFT THRU PA SAT EVENING...PRODUCING THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
WILL THREATEN PRIMARILY SE PA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. GEFS PLUMES SHOWING WIDELY VARYING AMTS BASED ON EXACT
SFC LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...WARNING TYPE AMTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
APPEAR UNLIKELY BASED ON 00Z GEFS PROBS AS WELL AS THE LATEST OPER
ECMWF/CANADIAN RUNS.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WHILE NARROWING TO A CERTAIN
DEGREE...STILL RESULT IN A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CONFIDENCE/RISK
HAS INCREASED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN AN INCREASE IN POPS
TO LKLY OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION IS HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE MODELS...THE FCST DETAILS
REMAIN VERY IN QUESTION WITH COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS (TEMPS/PTYPES) AND ELEVATION
DEPENDENCY WITH SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F
/ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/...NOT TO MENTION TIMING DIFFERENCES.
THE STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS/WARM
GROUND TEMPS GIVEN THE RECENT MILD SPELL MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GRASS AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THUS
MITIGATING IMPACTS TO SOME EXTENT. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE-SEASON
SNOW EVENTS IN CENTRAL PA. OVERALL WE HAVE STARTED TO HEDGE THE
FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE SNOW VS. RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ODDS
OF ACCUMULATION TRENDING HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND BRISK/GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
LOW (NOR`EASTER?) AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE MARITIMES... WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LKLY OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE NICELY INTO THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SW
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC. DRY WX MON NGT-TUE IS FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES
LATER TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
PA...WITH AREA OF THICKER MID CLOUDS BEGINNING TO WORK ACROSS THE
NY BORDER AT SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BRING SCT DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS. THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND KBFD /WITH
SHORT-LIVED LOCAL REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE THERE - BUT PROB LOW ENOUGH
TO NOT MENTION IN TAF/. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKIES FILLING WITH CU
ELSEWHERE. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WINDS PICKING UP...AS GUSTS RANGE
FROM 15-25 MPH IN MOST PLACES...AND EVEN HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
LIKELY AT KJST- KMDT.
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH QUICKLY WANE. MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT
VFR CONTINUES ELSEWHERE. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH...BUT SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS SPREAD SW-NE ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT SNOW
BECOMES LIKELY SW LATE.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING /ESP SOUTH AND EAST / WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS.
MON...QUITE BREEZY. RESTRICTIONS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR TO BRIEF MVFR ELSEWHERE.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW MTNS. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH PA FIRE MANAGERS THE ASSESSMENT IS THAT
FUELS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST AFTER RECENT RAINS AND WILL TAKE
SEVERAL DAY TO DRY OUT. THUS...NO RED FLAG ISSUANCE IS PLANNED AT
THIS TIME. AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY AND FAST SPREAD IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW RH...BUT NOT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
948 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AND BRING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRIER
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 945 PM...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOW SW...LIKELY MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY 1130 PM. NORTH OF THE
FRONT...WEAK SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. THESE SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING...PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST TEMPS
TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. POPS APPEAR GENERALLY ON
TRACK...SLIGHT TWEAKS ARE NEEDED.
AT 8PM...KGSP RADAR INDICATED THAT THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN KGMU AND KAND...DRIVING TO THE SSW. A BAND OF FADING
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM THE FOOTHILLS EAST ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTH...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SLIDE EAST FROM THE LAKELANDS TOWARDS THE MIDLANDS. I WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS AND TEMPS TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS.
AS OF 6 PM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES WITH
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. IN
ADDITION...I WILL UPDATE POPS TO RECENT COMPOSITE RADAR. SO
FAR...TWO THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER THE ESCARPMENT FROM
HENDERSON TO THE POLK/RUTHERFORD COUNTY LINE.
AS OF 2:30 PM SATURDAY...COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM
AS UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DIVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AT AFD TIME...SURFACE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH WARM/WEDGE FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST
ALONG OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE SC/NC STATE LINE. DAMMING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NC PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THOSE AREAS.
FIRST ITEM OF NOTE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS ACTUALLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING
250J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE UPSTATE...WITH RAP FORECASTING THAT
TO DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A LINE OF CONVECTION
/THOUGH NO CGS OBSERVED YET/ HAS DEVELOPED GENERALLY ALONG THE
NC/TN STATE LINE AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST GA. AS THE UPPER
LOW DIPS DOWN...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS MAY BRIEFLY COINCIDE
WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STORMS. DO NOT REALLY EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST...CAA WILL
KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TO JUXTAPOSE
TEMPERATURES VERSUS CLOUD COVER BUT FOR NOW BEST GUESS IS THAT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WILL BE SOLIDLY BELOW
FREEZING...WITH FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS. FOR ASHEVILLE AND
THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO WARM
FOR FROST...BUT OVER THE LITTLE TENNESSEE SHOULD SEE LOWS DROP
ENOUGH TO WARRANT FROST MENTION IN THE GRIDS. SINCE ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS HAD THEIR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM TURNED ON
YESTERDAY...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE FIVE SOUTHWEST NC
COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FOR THE MOST PART...PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT THIS EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW...BUT AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE IN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID...MODELS HAVE PERFORMED QUITE
POORLY TODAY SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS IS PRETTY LOW
GIVEN WE ARE TALKING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY
MAY REMAIN ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DURING THE DAY...AND THEN BACK OVER TO SNOW IN
THE EVENING. THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
INCH OR SO ACROSS MAINLY THE SMOKIES BUT COMBINED WITH SNOW PAST
00Z SUNDAY AS WE PUSH INTO THE SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH WPC SNOW FORECASTS. THIS IS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONFIDENCE LEVELS AND
THE FACT THAT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SPS MENTION AND WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE THE HI-RES GUIDANCE TO REFINE THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM SATURDAY...ON SUNDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN USA...AND A TROUGH RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN USA. A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WILL EXIT OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN PROGRESSES AND DEAMPLIFIES
RESULTING IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...ON SUNDAY EVENING A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW
WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST. COLD MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS SPREADING
WELL EAST OF THE TN BORDER. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS OF MOISTURE EVEN
SPILLING OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN IN THOSE LOCATIONS. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE TN BORDER ON MONDAY...BUT COLD MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE TN BORDER THROUGH THE DAY...FINALLY ENDING OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT SNOW TOTALS WILL NOT MEET ADVISORY OR
WARNING CRITERIA...AND THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY FEATURES DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...UNTIL ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE
RIDGING ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. WITH PLANT LIFE AT AN ADVANCED STAGE DUE
TO WARM TEMPERATURES EARLIER IN THE MONTH...FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED. FROST ADVISORIES ARE LESS CERTAIN...AS DRIER AIR MAY LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BY TUESDAY EVENING THE CHANGE
IN WEATHER REGIME WILL HAVE HAPPENED...WITH THE AXIS OF A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND PUSHING THE SURFACE HIGH
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDOWN. THAT SHOULD LEAVE US WITH A
FAIRLY SPECTACULAR EARLY SPRING DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND TEMPS ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...SO CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. AFTER THAT...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOT HAD THE
BEST CONTINUITY WITH THAT ONE...AND SHOW A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROF TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW ARE
MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND NOW A COLD FRONT GETS MORE STRUNG OUT
SW TO NE...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE TIMING
HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH...BUT THE MID/UPPER FORCING
DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT HAD IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS.
LOW LEVEL FORCING ALSO DIMINISHES AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHANCE RANGE BECAUSE OF THE
MODEL FORCING TREND. THE GFS STILL BRINGS A PLUME OF WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS NE GA AND UPSTATE SC...ALONG WITH MODERATE
SHEAR...SO THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED...AND WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME
SEVERE STORMS ON THAT DAY JUST YET. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO NEXT SATURDAY LOOKS QUIET AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT 8PM...KGSP RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN KGMU AND KAND...DRIVING TO
THE SSW. A BAND OF FADING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM THE
FOOTHILLS EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLIDE EAST FROM THE LAKELANDS
TOWARDS THE MIDLANDS. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS WERE LOCATED NORTH OF I-40.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. LOW
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY
LIFTING TO VFR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE WITH
ANY SHOWERS UNDER THE PASSING TROUGH. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
01-07Z 07-13Z 13-19Z 19-00Z
KCLT HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%
KGSP HIGH 85% HIGH 85% HIGH 81% HIGH 88%
KAVL HIGH 100% MED 77% HIGH 83% MED 79%
KHKY HIGH 84% HIGH 83% HIGH 88% MED 78%
KGMU HIGH 85% HIGH 86% HIGH 90% HIGH 86%
KAND HIGH 92% HIGH 82% HIGH 94% HIGH 94%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>070-502-504-
506>510.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ051-052-058-
059-062-063.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
SCZ001>003-005>007-011-012-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...NED/TDP
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
804 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AND BRING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRIER
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 8PM...KGSP RADAR INDICATED THAT THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN KGMU AND KAND...DRIVING TO THE SSW. A BAND OF FADING
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM THE FOOTHILLS EAST ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTH...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SLIDE EAST FROM THE LAKELANDS TOWARDS THE MIDLANDS. I WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS AND TEMPS TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS.
AS OF 6 PM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES WITH
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. IN
ADDITION...I WILL UPDATE POPS TO RECENT COMPOSITE RADAR. SO
FAR...TWO THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER THE ESCARPMENT FROM
HENDERSON TO THE POLK/RUTHERFORD COUNTY LINE.
AS OF 2:30 PM SATURDAY...COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM
AS UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DIVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AT AFD TIME...SURFACE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH WARM/WEDGE FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST
ALONG OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE SC/NC STATE LINE. DAMMING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NC PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THOSE AREAS.
FIRST ITEM OF NOTE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS ACTUALLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING
250J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE UPSTATE...WITH RAP FORECASTING THAT
TO DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A LINE OF CONVECTION
/THOUGH NO CGS OBSERVED YET/ HAS DEVELOPED GENERALLY ALONG THE
NC/TN STATE LINE AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST GA. AS THE UPPER
LOW DIPS DOWN...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS MAY BRIEFLY COINCIDE
WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STORMS. DO NOT REALLY EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST...CAA WILL
KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TO JUXTAPOSE
TEMPERATURES VERSUS CLOUD COVER BUT FOR NOW BEST GUESS IS THAT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WILL BE SOLIDLY BELOW
FREEZING...WITH FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS. FOR ASHEVILLE AND
THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO WARM
FOR FROST...BUT OVER THE LITTLE TENNESSEE SHOULD SEE LOWS DROP
ENOUGH TO WARRANT FROST MENTION IN THE GRIDS. SINCE ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS HAD THEIR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM TURNED ON
YESTERDAY...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE FIVE SOUTHWEST NC
COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FOR THE MOST PART...PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT THIS EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW...BUT AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE IN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID...MODELS HAVE PERFORMED QUITE
POORLY TODAY SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS IS PRETTY LOW
GIVEN WE ARE TALKING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY
MAY REMAIN ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DURING THE DAY...AND THEN BACK OVER TO SNOW IN
THE EVENING. THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
INCH OR SO ACROSS MAINLY THE SMOKIES BUT COMBINED WITH SNOW PAST
00Z SUNDAY AS WE PUSH INTO THE SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH WPC SNOW FORECASTS. THIS IS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONFIDENCE LEVELS AND
THE FACT THAT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SPS MENTION AND WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE THE HI-RES GUIDANCE TO REFINE THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM SATURDAY...ON SUNDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN USA...AND A TROUGH RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN USA. A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WILL EXIT OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN PROGRESSES AND DEAMPLIFIES
RESULTING IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...ON SUNDAY EVENING A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW
WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST. COLD MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS SPREADING
WELL EAST OF THE TN BORDER. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS OF MOISTURE EVEN
SPILLING OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN IN THOSE LOCATIONS. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE TN BORDER ON MONDAY...BUT COLD MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE TN BORDER THROUGH THE DAY...FINALLY ENDING OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT SNOW TOTALS WILL NOT MEET ADVISORY OR
WARNING CRITERIA...AND THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY FEATURES DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...UNTIL ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE
RIDGING ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. WITH PLANT LIFE AT AN ADVANCED STAGE DUE
TO WARM TEMPERATURES EARLIER IN THE MONTH...FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED. FROST ADVISORIES ARE LESS CERTAIN...AS DRIER AIR MAY LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BY TUESDAY EVENING THE CHANGE
IN WEATHER REGIME WILL HAVE HAPPENED...WITH THE AXIS OF A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND PUSHING THE SURFACE HIGH
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDOWN. THAT SHOULD LEAVE US WITH A
FAIRLY SPECTACULAR EARLY SPRING DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND TEMPS ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...SO CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. AFTER THAT...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOT HAD THE
BEST CONTINUITY WITH THAT ONE...AND SHOW A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROF TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW ARE
MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND NOW A COLD FRONT GETS MORE STRUNG OUT
SW TO NE...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE TIMING
HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH...BUT THE MID/UPPER FORCING
DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT HAD IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS.
LOW LEVEL FORCING ALSO DIMINISHES AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHANCE RANGE BECAUSE OF THE
MODEL FORCING TREND. THE GFS STILL BRINGS A PLUME OF WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS NE GA AND UPSTATE SC...ALONG WITH MODERATE
SHEAR...SO THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED...AND WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME
SEVERE STORMS ON THAT DAY JUST YET. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO NEXT SATURDAY LOOKS QUIET AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT 8PM...KGSP RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN KGMU AND KAND...DRIVING TO
THE SSW. A BAND OF FADING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM THE
FOOTHILLS EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLIDE EAST FROM THE LAKELANDS
TOWARDS THE MIDLANDS. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS WERE LOCATED NORTH OF I-40.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. LOW
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY
LIFTING TO VFR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE WITH
ANY SHOWERS UNDER THE PASSING TROUGH. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z
KCLT HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
KGSP HIGH 86% HIGH 85% HIGH 83% HIGH 88%
KAVL HIGH 99% MED 78% HIGH 86% HIGH 81%
KHKY HIGH 80% MED 67% HIGH 84% MED 75%
KGMU HIGH 84% HIGH 89% HIGH 89% HIGH 90%
KAND HIGH 93% HIGH 84% HIGH 88% HIGH 97%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>070-502-504-
506>510.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ051-052-058-
059-062-063.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
SCZ001>003-005>007-011-012-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...NED/TDP
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
328 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION TONIGHT...TRACKING NE AND ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING.
THE HRRR SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS JUST AFTER
00Z...BUT WITH THE LOW LEVELS STARTING OFF SO DRY...MEASURABLE PRECIP
WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE STRONGER LIFT MOVES IN AND THE
SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW PICKS UP BETWEEN 06-09Z. WILL RAISE POPS
QUICKLY IN THAT PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SOUTH
WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. POPS WILL
RISE TO CATEGORICAL AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING POPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION...AND A CHANGE TO SNOW MAY OCCUR IN SW VA AND THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE MOISTURE PULLS AWAY. POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE SHALLOW AND THIN NATURE OF THE
MOISTURE...WHICH STAYS WELL BELOW THE -10C LEVEL...AND UPSLOPE FLOW
IS WEAK. WILL LOWER POPS TO LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC EAST COAST BY
MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS LOW ELEVATIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD
AIR ALOFT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
LEAVING THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES VERY COLD WITH HIGHS 40S
TO LOWER 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN INCH OR
SO OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BUT ONLY A FEW
FLURRIES TO TRACE LOWER ELEVATIONS. NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BRIEF
SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY MONDAY. ALSO SOME BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WITH FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND NW WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. A FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING POSSIBLE IN ALL BUT
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND A COUPLE SW VA COUNTIES WHERE FREEZE PROGRAM
HAS NOT STARTED YET. MONDAY SKIES CLEAR WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND. HOWEVER MONDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD
FROST LIKELY ALL AREAS AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
EASTERN TN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND ALL
OF NE TN AND SW VA. TROUGH IN THE EAST MOVES OUT MONDAY NIGHT THEN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY AND SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE
NEAR AVERAGE LOWER TO MID 60S. RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AT MID WEEK
AND HIGHS WARM FURTHER TO MID 60S TO MID 70S. RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY MORE THURSDAY AS NEW SYSTEM DIVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY WITH THUNDER
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 62 40 53 / 80 70 20 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 57 37 48 / 60 80 20 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 47 55 37 49 / 70 80 20 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 56 36 45 / 50 90 20 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/TD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
851 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...TEXT PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AS THEY WERE RUNNING TOO COLD AT
THAT TIME. BASICALLY HAVE USED RUC13 DATA (WHICH IS WORKING OUT OK
FOR NOW)...BUT THEN BLENDED THE MODEL MORE TOWARD FORECAST LOWS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...OVERALL TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR LOW WAS NOT
SIGNIFICANT. DID ADJUST CLOUD COVER FOR GENERALLY DIMINISHING OF
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. LEFT REST OF FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE FOR THE BAYS/WATERWAYS SINCE
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST FORECAST DATA SUPPORT THIS. SCA CONTINUES
OFFSHORE. REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS WELL AS CLOUDS...WITH
MAYBE SOME MID LEVEL CIGS AT KLRD (BUT MORE LIKELY SCATTERED).
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z...AND FOR THE MOST PART BE
11 KNOTS OR LESS BY THEN (KCRP ALWAYS A BIT HIGHER AS USUAL).
WINDS BECOME MORE NE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES.
OVERALL...NOT TOO MUCH GOING ON...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MUCH MORE TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING SOME OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE NO LONGER BEING MET...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED IT.
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
MAY CONTINUE A LITTLE PAST 00Z. INCLUDED 10 POPS WITH MENTION OF
WX THROUGH 03Z FOR THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOLER AIR WILL
SPILL INTO SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT DROPPING LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE
40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE COAST WHERE LOWER 50S WILL
BE COMMON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY AND SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR TOMORROW...BUT CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE 60S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY
CHILLY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S...WITH
A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.
MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS
LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE BAYS AND WATERWAYS...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...PUTTING US BACK INTO
RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL TRIGGER A FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP...WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 80S WEST OF I-37 ON TUESDAY THEN OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THAT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COASTAL BEND BY MIDWEEK. MODELS INDICATE WEAK SUPPORT
FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. MORE DRY AND
COOL AIR COMES IN AFTER THIS FRONT...PULLING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL INTO EASTER WEEKEND.
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TIMING ON
THESE MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 49 67 43 72 57 / 10 0 0 0 10
VICTORIA 44 65 38 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 10
LAREDO 46 67 44 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 46 67 42 74 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 50 66 49 68 60 / 10 0 0 0 10
COTULLA 44 67 42 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 48 67 44 74 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 52 66 52 69 60 / 10 0 0 0 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FEATURES OF NOTE AT 3 PM WERE A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...A STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR AND EAST OF HOUSTON COUNTY...AND A COLD FRONT NEAR A LINE
FROM TERRELL TO NEAR WACO. THE AIRMASS OVER SE TX HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CAPPED ALL DAY...HOWEVER DO EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING AS THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AND THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. SOME HAVE ALREADY STARTED OVER TRINITY
AND POLK COUNTIES NEAR WHERE THE GRAVITY WAVE WAS INTERACTING WITH
THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT.
THE MODELS DIFFERED A BIT ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE DONE WELL SO FAR AND
BOTH HAVE LESS COVERAGE THAN WAS EARLIER FORECAST. THE NAM12...
ARW...NMM...AND TO AN EXTENT THE RAP13...ALSO AGREE WITH LESS
COVERAGE. THE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFLUENT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE SHEARING OUT SYSTEM IN MEXICO. DO
EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO OCCUR AT LEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BECAUSE
OF THIS...DECIDED TO GO WITH NO MORE THAN 50 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST SHOULD OCCUR AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SE
TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT LEAST ALONG
THE COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
40
&&
.MARINE...
THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM...OR ONCE THE
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT ARRIVE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
POSTED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. GUSTS TO 30KT ARE A
POSSIBILITY SAT MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND SWING BACK ONSHORE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND SEAS THEN BUILD
INTO MIDWEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. 47
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER
MSUNNY SKIES. RH`S SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 27-32% RANGE WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE MET, BUT MAY BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/
AVIATION...
CIGS ARE LIFTING INTO HIGHER END MVFR AND VFR TERRITORY...AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTN. MAY SEE SOME SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO CLL
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE SE TX EARLY IN THE EVENING AND OFF THE
COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE`S A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING MORE COVERAGE
THAN SOME OF THE HIRES SOLNS - SOME OF WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE
IMPACTING SE TX TAF SITES. ONE THING THAT IS DIFFERENT TODAY IS
THAT WE`RE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE HEATING/INSTABILITY THAN WE`VE SEEN IN PAST DAYS. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED.
SHOULD SEE CIGS FILL BACK IN TO 900-1900 FEET POST FROPA...GRADUALLY
LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT
THE COAST. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 62 42 63 40 / 50 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 57 66 46 66 41 / 50 20 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 62 68 53 65 51 / 60 30 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
BUT SOME CHANCE EXISTS AT REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. A PATCH OF MVFR CIGS MAY FILL BACK IN AT KLBB/KPVW LATE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING TO
VFR BY DAYBREAK. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE REGION.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/
SHORT TERM...
IR SATELLITE AND REGIONAL METARS AT 2 AM CLEARLY SHOWED THE COLD
FRONT HAD CLEARED MOST OF THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF STOUT
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 43 MPH IN DALHART. HRRR AND RAP
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FRONT WHICH SHOULD CLEAR LUBBOCK
BETWEEN 5 AM AND 6 AM. OF GREATER INTEREST IS THE RECENT
BLOSSOMING OF LOW CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS STRATUS IS TIED TO A ZONAL
LL MOISTURE AXIS IN ERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT WHERE
THIS AXIS INTERSECTS THE FRONT. UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF FAVORABLE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THIS MOISTURE IS ALREADY BREEDING
ELEVATED CAPE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS OF 500-1000 J/KG PER THE RUC
MESOANALYSIS. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER...RICHER GULF MOISTURE
CURLING ISENTROPICALLY N-NEWD FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR /AIDED BY A
VEERING LLJ/ WILL ONLY IMPROVE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
FROM THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK... ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
4 AND 7 AM. BOOSTED PRE-7 AM POPS TO 50 PERCENT IN CHILDRESS
COUNTY BEFORE TAPERING THESE BACK THEREAFTER AS AMPLE W-NW
STEERING WINDS CARRY THIS CONVECTION FARTHER DOWN THE RED RIVER.
KEPT LOW T-STORM CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TO CLEAR THESE AREAS...THOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR NEXT TO NIL AS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER AIR WEDGES SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON BRISK NELY WINDS.
UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES...POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS STILL
FAVORED TO EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. RAP
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SATURATION AT TIMES FOR SOME
DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-27...SO MENTION OF DRIZZLE WAS
INSERTED FOR THIS FAVORABLY MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. OTHERWISE...
STRATUS IS FAVORED TO THIN AND ERODE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON IN
CONTRAST TO THE NAM WHICH KEEPS LOW CLOUDS INTACT THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PROVIDED THIS CLEARING OCCURS... THE SETUP SHOULD BE MORE
THAN FAVORABLE FOR WELL-BELOW NORMAL LOWS AREA WIDE AS WINDS TREND
LIGHT WITHIN THE CENTER OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE. NUDGED THE
INHERITED LOW TEMPS EVEN LOWER TONIGHT GIVEN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL AND AN OVERALL LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE SINCE LATE FEBRUARY...OUR OFFICE DOES NOT ISSUE
SPRING FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL WE ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LAST
FREEZE DATES WHICH IN THIS CASE ARE STILL SEVERAL WEEKS OUT FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COOL DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY THANKS TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY...EVEN WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
BACK TO ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START
A SLOW WARM UP FOR SUNDAY BEFORE GOING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE DRYLINE PUSHING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND
KICKS IN. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WIND SPEEDS ARE...BUT DRY AIR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINIMUM
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS PRETTY UNCERTAIN IN THE MODELS WITH
THE GFS TRYING TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC KEEP DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES ARE IN STORE FOR THE
VERY END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS THE GFS SWINGS THE CENTER OF A
CLOSED LOW STRAIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH THAT MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER THAN THE GFS. TIMING DIFFERENCES
IMPACT ALL SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS BUT ESPECIALLY POPS...
SUPERBLEND IS INCREASING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE GFS HAS SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND THE GFS IN
COVERAGE...AMOUNTS...AND TIMING...WILL DROP SUPERBLEND POPS QUITE
A BIT TO TAKE THE ECMWF TIMING INTO ACCOUNT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE IMPACTED AS THE GFS DRIVES A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOWER WIND
SPEEDS AND AN AIRMASS NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER THAN THE MIDDLE PART
BUT HOW COOL REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH TIME FOR THE
SYSTEM AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
652 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.AVIATION...
TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM LOW CIGS AT LBB WILL SOON GIVE WAY TO IFR
CIGS IN SIMILAR FASHION TO PVW. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY FALL TO LIFR
AT THESE SITES BEFORE 15Z...BUT STRONGER AND DRIER NE WINDS BY
MID-MORNING WILL LIKELY PREVENT THIS AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
STRATUS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
CDS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN SUB-VFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR THIS EVENING. THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPING NEAR CDS REMAINS INTACT THIS
MORNING...BUT LIKELIHOOD OF A DIRECT IMPACT IS LOWER THAN
AREAS FARTHER EAST SO HAVE REMOVED THE EARLIER TS MENTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/
SHORT TERM...
IR SATELLITE AND REGIONAL METARS AT 2 AM CLEARLY SHOWED THE COLD
FRONT HAD CLEARED MOST OF THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF STOUT
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 43 MPH IN DALHART. HRRR AND RAP
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FRONT WHICH SHOULD CLEAR LUBBOCK
BETWEEN 5 AM AND 6 AM. OF GREATER INTEREST IS THE RECENT
BLOSSOMING OF LOW CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS STRATUS IS TIED TO A ZONAL
LL MOISTURE AXIS IN ERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT WHERE
THIS AXIS INTERSECTS THE FRONT. UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF FAVORABLE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THIS MOISTURE IS ALREADY BREEDING
ELEVATED CAPE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS OF 500-1000 J/KG PER THE RUC
MESOANALYSIS. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER...RICHER GULF MOISTURE
CURLING ISENTROPICALLY N-NEWD FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR /AIDED BY A
VEERING LLJ/ WILL ONLY IMPROVE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
FROM THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK... ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
4 AND 7 AM. BOOSTED PRE-7 AM POPS TO 50 PERCENT IN CHILDRESS
COUNTY BEFORE TAPERING THESE BACK THEREAFTER AS AMPLE W-NW
STEERING WINDS CARRY THIS CONVECTION FARTHER DOWN THE RED RIVER.
KEPT LOW T-STORM CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TO CLEAR THESE AREAS...THOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR NEXT TO NIL AS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER AIR WEDGES SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON BRISK NELY WINDS.
UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES...POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS STILL
FAVORED TO EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. RAP
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SATURATION AT TIMES FOR SOME
DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-27...SO MENTION OF DRIZZLE WAS
INSERTED FOR THIS FAVORABLY MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. OTHERWISE...
STRATUS IS FAVORED TO THIN AND ERODE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON IN
CONTRAST TO THE NAM WHICH KEEPS LOW CLOUDS INTACT THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PROVIDED THIS CLEARING OCCURS... THE SETUP SHOULD BE MORE
THAN FAVORABLE FOR WELL-BELOW NORMAL LOWS AREA WIDE AS WINDS TREND
LIGHT WITHIN THE CENTER OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE. NUDGED THE
INHERITED LOW TEMPS EVEN LOWER TONIGHT GIVEN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL AND AN OVERALL LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE SINCE LATE FEBRUARY...OUR OFFICE DOES NOT ISSUE
SPRING FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL WE ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LAST
FREEZE DATES WHICH IN THIS CASE ARE STILL SEVERAL WEEKS OUT FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COOL DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY THANKS TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY...EVEN WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
BACK TO ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START
A SLOW WARM UP FOR SUNDAY BEFORE GOING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE DRYLINE PUSHING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND
KICKS IN. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WIND SPEEDS ARE...BUT DRY AIR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINIMUM
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS PRETTY UNCERTAIN IN THE MODELS WITH
THE GFS TRYING TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC KEEP DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES ARE IN STORE FOR THE
VERY END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS THE GFS SWINGS THE CENTER OF A
CLOSED LOW STRAIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH THAT MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER THAN THE GFS. TIMING DIFFERENCES
IMPACT ALL SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS BUT ESPECIALLY POPS...
SUPERBLEND IS INCREASING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE GFS HAS SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND THE GFS IN
COVERAGE...AMOUNTS...AND TIMING...WILL DROP SUPERBLEND POPS QUITE
A BIT TO TAKE THE ECMWF TIMING INTO ACCOUNT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE IMPACTED AS THE GFS DRIVES A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOWER WIND
SPEEDS AND AN AIRMASS NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER THAN THE MIDDLE PART
BUT HOW COOL REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH TIME FOR THE
SYSTEM AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
345 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...
IR SATELLITE AND REGIONAL METARS AT 2 AM CLEARLY SHOWED THE COLD
FRONT HAD CLEARED MOST OF THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF STOUT
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 43 MPH IN DALHART. HRRR AND RAP
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FRONT WHICH SHOULD CLEAR LUBBOCK
BETWEEN 5 AM AND 6 AM. OF GREATER INTEREST IS THE RECENT
BLOSSOMING OF LOW CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS STRATUS IS TIED TO A ZONAL
LL MOISTURE AXIS IN ERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT WHERE
THIS AXIS INTERSECTS THE FRONT. UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF FAVORABLE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THIS MOISTURE IS ALREADY BREEDING
ELEVATED CAPE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS OF 500-1000 J/KG PER THE RUC
MESOANALYSIS. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER...RICHER GULF MOISTURE
CURLING ISENTROPICALLY N-NEWD FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR /AIDED BY A
VEERING LLJ/ WILL ONLY IMPROVE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
FROM THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK... ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
4 AND 7 AM. BOOSTED PRE-7 AM POPS TO 50 PERCENT IN CHILDRESS
COUNTY BEFORE TAPERING THESE BACK THEREAFTER AS AMPLE W-NW
STEERING WINDS CARRY THIS CONVECTION FARTHER DOWN THE RED RIVER.
KEPT LOW T-STORM CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TO CLEAR THESE AREAS...THOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR NEXT TO NIL AS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER AIR WEDGES SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON BRISK NELY WINDS.
UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES...POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS STILL
FAVORED TO EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. RAP
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SATURATION AT TIMES FOR SOME
DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-27...SO MENTION OF DRIZZLE WAS
INSERTED FOR THIS FAVORABLY MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. OTHERWISE...
STRATUS IS FAVORED TO THIN AND ERODE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON IN
CONTRAST TO THE NAM WHICH KEEPS LOW CLOUDS INTACT THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PROVIDED THIS CLEARING OCCURS... THE SETUP SHOULD BE MORE
THAN FAVORABLE FOR WELL-BELOW NORMAL LOWS AREA WIDE AS WINDS TREND
LIGHT WITHIN THE CENTER OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE. NUDGED THE
INHERITED LOW TEMPS EVEN LOWER TONIGHT GIVEN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL AND AN OVERALL LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE SINCE LATE FEBRUARY...OUR OFFICE DOES NOT ISSUE
SPRING FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL WE ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LAST
FREEZE DATES WHICH IN THIS CASE ARE STILL SEVERAL WEEKS OUT FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COOL DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY THANKS TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY...EVEN WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
BACK TO ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START
A SLOW WARM UP FOR SUNDAY BEFORE GOING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE DRYLINE PUSHING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND
KICKS IN. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WIND SPEEDS ARE...BUT DRY AIR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINIMUM
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS PRETTY UNCERTAIN IN THE MODELS WITH
THE GFS TRYING TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC KEEP DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES ARE IN STORE FOR THE
VERY END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS THE GFS SWINGS THE CENTER OF A
CLOSED LOW STRAIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH THAT MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER THAN THE GFS. TIMING DIFFERENCES
IMPACT ALL SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS BUT ESPECIALLY POPS...
SUPERBLEND IS INCREASING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE GFS HAS SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND THE GFS IN
COVERAGE...AMOUNTS...AND TIMING...WILL DROP SUPERBLEND POPS QUITE
A BIT TO TAKE THE ECMWF TIMING INTO ACCOUNT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE IMPACTED AS THE GFS DRIVES A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOWER WIND
SPEEDS AND AN AIRMASS NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER THAN THE MIDDLE PART
BUT HOW COOL REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH TIME FOR THE
SYSTEM AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1023 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER IOWA BUT ALSO EXTENDING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. ARCING BAND OF CLOUDS IS GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. RADAR RETURNS SHOW JUST A FEW
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN WINNEBAGO AND CALUMET
COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD EXIT THESE COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WI. FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO
THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...BANDS OF CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND MOST LIKELY
EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...DIURNAL CU ACROSS NORTHERN
WI WILL ALSO LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING. THIS SHOULD LEAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. DESPITE
SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GUIDANCE IS NOT THAT
COLD TONIGHT. THINK THAT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER N-C WI...SO SIDED WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE
IN THIS AREA...AND THEN DROPPED THE COLD SPOTS A COUPLE DEGREES
FURTHER. THE EAST SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO GUIDANCE DUE TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DURING THE EVENING. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER ONTARIO. SOME DIURNAL CU IS
ALSO LIKELY TO POP BY LATE IN THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED HOWEVER...BUT AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...A FEW SHOWERS MAY MIGRATE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO N-C WI...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
THE PATTERN INCREASINGLY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FOR THE NEW WORK DUE
A TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE WEEK TO A
DEEPENING SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF A NORTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHILE A 100 KT JETLET
SLIDES OVER. PCPN TYPE AN ISSUE WITH MORE LIKELY SNOW FROM FAR NE
WISCONSIN TO RAIN CENTRAL AREAS...AND A MIX IN BETWEEN.
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...PCPN MAY TREND LESS BUT NOT END
AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE AREA AS UPPER FLOW
GRADUALLY TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INTENSE WEST TO EAST 850 FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE STATE WITH A LFQ REGION OF AN UPPER JET
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING. PREVIOUS MODELS WERE MIXED WITH
PCPN TYPE FROM HEAVY RAIN TO HEAVY SNOW...BUT LATEST RUNS SUGGESTS
COLDER AND MORE TOWARD A HEAVY SNOW EVENT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEN DIVERTS AFTER WITH DURATION AND TRACKING.
PROGS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE 850 LOW OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOWARD FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. SMALL PCPN CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 24 HRS. CLDS
SLOWLY SHIFTG SWD...AND REMAINING CIGS ARE VFR. STILL THINK SOME
LAKE CLDS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TNGT...BUT NO SIGN OF THOSE
DEVELOPING YET. THE LAKE CLDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME MVFR
CIGS...BUT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE WOLF GRADUALLY RISING. HYDRO PARTNERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS FURTHER NORTH...WILL
BE MORE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS AND MORE RUNOFF. IF MORE
SNOW...A MORE DELAYED RUNOFF.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
HYDROLOGY......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
920 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SOME SLEET
MIXED IN AT TIMES...OVER SW PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND ISOLATED FLURRIES OVER THE REST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ARE
SINKING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE DEFORMATION AROUND CLOSED 500 MB
LOW THAT IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. WITH THE
STRONGER FORCING MOVING SOUTH OF THE STATE...SHOULD SEE MAINLY
FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE UNTIL IT ENDS BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS ARE THINNING AS DRIER AIR
WORKS NE TO SW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FORECASTED
LOWS TO BE REACHED.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/ISOLATED
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND ISOLATED FLURRIES
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA ARE SINKING TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH
WILL HAVE TO WATCH EASTERN AREAS FOR ANY LOW STRATUS OFF THE LAKE WITH
PERSISTENT NE FLOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SREF IN AGREEMENT WITH
EARLIER MOS GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE PROBABILITY OF CIGS UNDER 3K
FT UNDER 25 PCT FOR THE EAST. LATEST NAM LOW LEVEL RH FORECASTS
ALSO KEEP HIGHER RH...AND THUS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE. WINDS
TURN NORTH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN NW IN THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MN AND IA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FOND DU LAC AND COLUMBIA
COUNTIES ARE SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AS THEY WEAKEN. THESE ARE IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER IOWA AND ALSO COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST WITH TIME TODAY.
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI THIS AFTERNOON... RIGHT WITHIN
THAT AREA OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. MOISTURE AND
FORCING ARE SUFFICIENT UP TO 5000 FEET ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS SHOWED IN THEIR MORNING FORECASTS. WARM AIR IS WRAPPING
NORTHWARD SO THESE SHOWERS ARE RAIN. THEY MAY CHANGE OVER TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
THE COLDER AIR FROM THE SHEBOYGAN AREA WRAPS INTO SOUTHWEST WI.
BESIDES BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THESE SHOWERS... NO IMPACT IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH MO TONIGHT AND TN SUNDAY. THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST WI TO OUR SOUTH DURING
THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND LEAD TO CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND PROBABLY DOWN TO THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AND THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY.
ONE MORE VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THESE CLOUDS IF THEY DEVELOP- THEY
RAP IS SHOWING DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE NAM. TOO SMALL OF
A CHANCE TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY WILL TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE. WE
WILL STILL BE UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH... SO EXPECT CUMULUS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY LATE MORNING THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON
COULD LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AREA AS WELL.
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW SO NO SHOWERS EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW US TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD BY MONDAY...EXITING EAST BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A DECENT DAY BY MOST MEASURES WITH WINDS
LIGHT AND HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S...LOW 40S BY SHEBOYGAN
AND UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET THAT POINTS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING...THEN
PIVOTS TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS DEEP AND QUITE STRONG...BUT ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A DRY TREND. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE AND IT
WILL BE A STRUGGLE FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT THIS KIND OF WAA USUALLY
FIGURES OUT A WAY TO MAKE IT HAPPEN. FOR NOW...IN THE INTEREST OF
COLLABORATION MOSTLY...WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SPRINKLES...BUT
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PLACES MEASURE.
THE LOW OUT WEST WILL HAVE A TROUGH/STATIONARY BOUNDARY...EXTENDING
EAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH ANY DEEPER FORCING
MECHANISMS WILL BE LACKING. WILL CARRY SMALL POPS ON
TUESDAY...MAINLY EAST WE SHOULD GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ENOUGH
ON TUESDAY TO SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S...THOUGH
MUCH MORE QUESTIONABLE UP TOWARD SHEBOYGAN WHERE IT WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A VERY INTERESTING PERIOD HERE. THERE IS A GROWING CONSENSUS
SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE KS/NEB VCNTY THEN HEADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL OR FAR SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS COPIOUS
MOISTURE WITH THIS EARLY SPRING STORM AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
IS ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL. THE GFS IS LOOKING THE WARMEST COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND THE GEM-NH. LOTS OF CLASSIC DYNAMIC FORCING HERE
WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND UPPER JET CONFIGURATION...IN
ADDITION TO DEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS. GLAD TO SEE THE 700-600MB
FRONTOGENESIS IS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SUGGESTING THE
BETTER SNOW BAND WILL STAY OUT OF THE AREA. OUR NORTHERN HALF...N
OF MKE AND MSN...COULD SEE A RAIN SHOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING...
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE. AS
TEMPS FALL AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MIX WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH...THEN SPREAD SOUTH AS IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW IN SOME
AREAS. FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...BUT DETAILS START TO GET VERY MURKY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES AT THAT RANGE. THE BIG MESSAGE IS STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES ON THE TRACK AND WX TYPE DETAILS GOING FORWARD...THEY WILL
SURELY CHANGE. IF YOU PLAN ON TRAVELING NORTH THROUGH THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY/WED NGT...YOU/LL WANT TO PREPARE FOR WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
WE SHOULD BE DRYING OUT BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES WELL
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO MORE NORMAL
LEVELS.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FOND DU LAC AND PORTAGE AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING INLAND AS THEY WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BACK
EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS IS PERSISTING LONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED SO SOUTHEAST WI SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS
FEATURE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE VERY LIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO NO IMPACT FOR AVIATION.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM MADISON TO JANESVILLE AND WEST. THESE ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP AND ARE PRIMARILY RAIN DUE TO WARM AIR WRAPPING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WI AND THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THEY MAY CHANGE OVER
TO A MIX IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ENDING. ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3 TO 5SM.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 3 SM RANGE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING... AND THEN SCATTER OUT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
HOWEVER BROKEN LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
FROM KMKE TO KENW. THE LES CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY RANGE FROM 1.5
KFT TO 3.0 KFT.
MARINE...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHEAST BY
EARLY EVENING BUT WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. LIGHTER NORTH WINDS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH A LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
358 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
AT 3 PM...A BAND OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DODGE CENTER MINNESOTA /WHICH
IS REPORTING SNOW/...WE ARE SEEING MAINLY REPORTS OF RAIN OUT OF
THESE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A BAND OF WEAK
900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THIS BAND EXTENDS WEST TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE COOLS TO LESS THAN 1500 FEET.
WHILE THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE 800 TO
700 MB WEAKENS AND MOVES WEST. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE 900 TO 850
MB LAPSE RATES WEAKEN AND THAT THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL DECREASE.
BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR COBB DATA PRODUCE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AT
KRST. THIS MAINLY DUE TO THIS MODEL PRODUCING SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS OF 20-30 TO 1 WHICH SEEMS VERY UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING THE
MOISTURE AND THE DEPTH OF THE LIFT. IN ADDITION...GROUND
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE 2-INCH
SOIL DEPTH TEMPERATURE AT OUR OFFICE IS CURRENTLY 38F...SO THIS
WILL LIKELY HELP TO CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOW UNLESS THE SNOW
RATES ARE HIGH. AS RESULT...PREFER THE NAM AND GFS COBB DATA WHICH
PRODUCE LITTLE...IF ANY SNOW. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS HAVE UP TO 1
INCH NEAR INTERSTATE 35 WHICH SEEMS REALISTIC SINCE IT IS CLOSER
TO THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT IS LOCATED NEAR THE PIVOT POINT OF THE
800 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS.
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE. AS A
RESULT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP
UNTIL IT REACHES NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. IN OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT THIS
TIME LOOK INITIALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET AND
THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...THE AREA WILL ENTER THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 4C IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO 12C
IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND AND IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM THE PLAINS WILL CONFINE ANY
PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A
LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOOK WARM INITIALLY FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX AND SNOW. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND BY THIS TIME.
THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF...SO IT WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD VERY LITTLE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
WITH UPPER SYSTEM SPINNING OVERHEAD AND VERY SLOW PROGRESSION...
SURFACE FLOW IS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO FORECAST IN THE EARLY
PERIODS. WIND SHIFT AXIS RUNNING FROM THE TWIN CITIES DOWN INTO
CENTRAL WI...BUT ONLY GRADUALLY PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. EVENTUALLY
EXPECT BOTH TAF LOCATIONS TO SWITCH TO NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS.
GENERALLY WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE AREA BUT ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES POINT TO MAINLY SNOW
WITH THESE...DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S. ENOUGH DRY
AIR TO ALLOW ADIABATIC COOLING ALONG THE WEB BULB TEMP TO KEEP IT
PRIMARILY SNOW. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION
AS RATE DOES NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ALREADY WARM
GROUND. BUT COULD BRIEFLY SNOW HARD ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISIBILITY
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TREND AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE BLACK RIVER IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WATER
LEVELS ARE FALLING AT BLACK RIVER FALLS...BUT THE CREST HAS NOT
QUITE REACHED GALESVILLE YET. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF WATER WERE
MOVING THROUGH THE WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN AS WELL. THE YELLOW RIVER
AT NECEDAH WAS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND A CREST NEAR MAJOR LEVEL IS
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER 44000 CFS OUT OF
CASTLE ROCK DAM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
MINOR FLOODING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO MUSCODA THIS WEEKEND. AND AS THE
HIGH WATER ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI MEETS UP WITH THIS WISCONSIN RIVER
VOLUME...EXPECT MINOR FLOODING TO BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR
MCGREGOR AND GUTTENBERG EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. FURTHER UPSTREAM ON
THE MIGHTY MISSISSIPPI...INFLOW FROM THE CHIPPEWA RIVER WILL HELP
WABASHA TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE... AND SOME MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED
THERE. THANKFULLY...NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...MW
HYDROLOGY...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1036 PM PDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
ON SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE SECOND PART OF THIS
INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO
MOST OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY...WITH
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...EVENING SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
MOVING TO THE ENE. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS LIFTED THE
MARINE LAYER...RESULTING IN PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CLIP NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT WIDESPREAD
MEASURABLE RAIN PROBABLY WON`T DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS RAIN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON THE
SONOMA COUNTY COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN IS
THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTH BAY BY
MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN FRANCISCO. THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE ENE AND
NOT DIG SOUTH AS IT MOVES INLAND. THUS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED
FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH BAY TOMORROW...WITH RAIN TOTALS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH IN SAN
FRANCISCO. ONLY SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. BUT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE AND RENEWED RAINFALL IS FORECAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST.
THIS SECOND ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN
END OF OUR CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HALF INCH MAY FALL IN THE
NORTH BAY MONDAY...WITH A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED FROM SAN
FRANCISCO SOUTH.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS
TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT SATURDAY...ITS BEEN A DIFFICULT
FORECAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS
THE COAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR
SKIES PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS. THE NAM40 FORECAST MODEL
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONT ARRIVING TO THE COAST BETWEEN 1800Z
AND 2100Z SUNDAY. THIS RATHER WEAK FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO
THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE FROM SAN JOSE NORTHWARD. MVFR CIGS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST 0900Z WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS BKN025 PASSING OVER THE
TERMINALS AND APPROACH. CIGS BKN015-025 ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AFTER 0900Z. MVFR CIGS BKN025 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH
WET RUNWAYS.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 0600 AND 0800Z. SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND
1900Z ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:26 PM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS
FRONT IS WEAK BUT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN ON
SUNDAY. RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONTS PARENT
STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE WATERS. WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 5 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 5 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
901 PM PDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
ON SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE SECOND PART OF THIS
INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO
MOST OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY...WITH
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...EVENING SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
MOVING TO THE ENE. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS LIFTED THE
MARINE LAYER...RESULTING IN PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CLIP NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT WIDESPREAD
MEASURABLE RAIN PROBABLY WON`T DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS RAIN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON THE
SONOMA COUNTY COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN IS
THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTH BAY BY
MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN FRANCISCO. THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE ENE AND
NOT DIG SOUTH AS IT MOVES INLAND. THUS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED
FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH BAY TOMORROW...WITH RAIN TOTALS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH IN SAN
FRANCISCO. ONLY SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. BUT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE AND RENEWED RAINFALL IS FORECAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST.
THIS SECOND ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN
END OF OUR CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HALF INCH MAY FALL IN THE
NORTH BAY MONDAY...WITH A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED FROM SAN
FRANCISCO SOUTH.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS
TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 6:02 PM PDT SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE
WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A COLD FRONT POSITIONED
APPROXIMATELY 350 MILES OFFSHORE. THE NAM40 FORECAST MODEL SHOWS
THIS FRONT ARRIVING TO THE COAST BETWEEN 1800Z AND 2100Z SUNDAY.
THIS FRONT IS RATHER WEAK FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT OF
RAIN WILL BE FROM SAN JOSE NORTHWARD. MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS RAIN.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST 0900Z WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS BKN025 PASSING OVER THE
TERMINALS AND APPROACH. CIGS BKN015-025 ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AFTER 0900Z. MVFR CIGS BKN025 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH
WET RUNWAYS.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 0200Z WITH PERIODS OF CIGS OVC009-012 PASSING
OVER THE TERMINALS. BY 0200Z CIGS BKN015-025 ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 1900Z ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:26 PM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS
FRONT IS WEAK BUT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN ON
SUNDAY. RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONTS PARENT
STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE WATERS. WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 5 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 5 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
142 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO
SUNDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN
PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A
GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THE SAME TIME. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A VERY TIGHT DEW POINT GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST
DOWN INTO THE LOWER LEHIGH VALLEY. AS A RESULT, THE ECHOS SEEN ON
THE RADAR ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE GROUND. DEW POINTS EXTENDING FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST, CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF
OUR AREA AND RETURNS TO THE WEST ARE VERY LIGHT AND MIGHT NOT BE
MUCH MORE OF A VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLE.
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
THE NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE INDICATE A FEW BANDS OF 700-800 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE, TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE INITIAL WAVE
AND ITS LIFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT, THEREFORE
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF AS WELL. THE POPS
REFLECT THIS WITH A DECREASING TREND SOUTHWARD. FARTHER NORTH, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH EVEN THE CLOUDS THINNING
FOR A TIME.
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN.
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A MOS BLEND. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN
AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURES, MAY TEND TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
ON SUNDAY, POPS WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD, WHICH BRINGS BETTER LIFT DEEPER INTO OUR
CWA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PERHAPS SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURE ISSUES ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FOR AWHILE,
HOWEVER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING OR MOVING INLAND SOME AS THE INCOMING
TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN MORE. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING, AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON IN NEW
JERSEY. IF THIS OCCURS, QUICKER COOLING WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW
OCCURRING. AS OF NOW, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE OTHER THAN TO ADD
MORE MIX/SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYS END.
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL SO UNLESS PRECIP FALLS HARD, THE SNOW LIKELY
WOULD JUST STICK MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES, CARS ETC. THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ITS TOUGH DURING THE DAY TO GET APPRECIABLE SNOW DUE
TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE UNLESS IT COMES DOWN HARD. THE BEST CHCS
ATTM FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW FALLING WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE
EVENING HOURS. MONDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH A BREEZY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW. CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UP TICK. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO ALL THE AREA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND
FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES...ITS BEEN VERY WARM SO FAR THIS MONTH...6 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW A BRIEF COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK BEFORE IT WARMS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END. FOR
REFERENCE, THE NORMALS FOR PHILLY DURING THE PERIOD ARE LOW TO MID
50S AND MID 30S. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE
WARMING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION...THIS EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES THREE PRECIPITATION
REFERENCES. THE FIRST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITTLE IF
ANY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE SECOND REFERENCE IS MIDWEEK ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. THE THIRD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME
WITH FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
WINDS...NORTH WINDS MAINLY 10 OR LESS SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING
NORTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY ON MONDAY. THE WINDS, 10 OR LESS, WILL
START TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THEY COULD GUST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEK.
IMPACTS...NOTHING WIDESPREAD SHAPING UP ATTM. WHILE WE COULD SEE
SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE SNOW, THEY SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ATTM, IMPACTS APPEAR THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. WE COULD SEE SOME MORNING SPRING FOG LATER IN
THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT IT`T TOO SOON TO DETERMINE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THIS TIME BUT
BASES WILL REMAIN AROUND 4000-5000FT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST.
TODAY...THE DAY WILL BEGIN VFR AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SO
THROUGH MIDDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST, WE WILL
SEE INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS ON THE EASTERLY FLOW. RAIN WILL PUSH
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST, REACHING KACY AND KMIV BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND SHOULD REACH KTTN, KPHL,
KPNE AND KILG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AND THIS MAY RESULT IN A RATHER QUICK CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW AT THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNSET AND LATER.
TONIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN SNOW THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT AT THE TERMINALS, WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE AND WE HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
WESTERN TERMINALS TO SHOW THE BEST TIMING FOR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME, WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THAT MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS
KRDG AND KABE. FOR NOW WE MENTION VCSH AT KABE AND LEAVE KRDG DRY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO BACK TO THE NORTH. GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KACY AND KMIV.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WATERS THRU THE PD DUE
TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE CAROLINAS, MOVES OFF THE CST AND THEN UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
THU SUN. ATTM, IT DOES NOT APPEAR GALE CRITERIA WILL BE MET, SO
THE GALE WATCH WAS DROPPED.
OUTLOOK...
SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FAVORED WINDS LESS THAN 35 KT. WENT WITH A
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER BAY.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. A SCA
LOOKS LIKELY. MAYBE GALES MONDAY EVENING.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...DIMINISHING WIND AND HEADLINES NOT
LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SCA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
EXPECT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY FAVORABLE,
AND WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL OFF SHORE, WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS OUR LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR BOTH THE SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER AS A
SLIGHT SHIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD
INCREASE THE THREAT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1225 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO
SUNDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN
PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A
GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THE SAME TIME. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A VERY TIGHT DEW POINT GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST
DOWN INTO THE LOWER LEHIGH VALLEY. AS A RESULT, THE ECHOS SEEN ON
THE RADAR ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE GROUND. DEW POINTS EXTENDING FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST, CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF
OUR AREA AND RETURNS TO THE WEST ARE VERY LIGHT AND MIGHT NOT BE
MUCH MORE OF A VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLE.
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
THE NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE INDICATE A FEW BANDS OF 700-800 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE, TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE INITIAL WAVE
AND ITS LIFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT, THEREFORE
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF AS WELL. THE POPS
REFLECT THIS WITH A DECREASING TREND SOUTHWARD. FARTHER NORTH, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH EVEN THE CLOUDS THINNING
FOR A TIME.
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN.
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A MOS BLEND. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN
AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURES, MAY TEND TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
ON SUNDAY, POPS WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD, WHICH BRINGS BETTER LIFT DEEPER INTO OUR
CWA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PERHAPS SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURE ISSUES ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FOR AWHILE,
HOWEVER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING OR MOVING INLAND SOME AS THE INCOMING
TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN MORE. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING, AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON IN NEW
JERSEY. IF THIS OCCURS, QUICKER COOLING WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW
OCCURRING. AS OF NOW, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE OTHER THAN TO ADD
MORE MIX/SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYS END.
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL SO UNLESS PRECIP FALLS HARD, THE SNOW LIKELY
WOULD JUST STICK MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES, CARS ETC. THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ITS TOUGH DURING THE DAY TO GET APPRECIABLE SNOW DUE
TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE UNLESS IT COMES DOWN HARD. THE BEST CHCS
ATTM FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW FALLING WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE
EVENING HOURS. MONDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH A BREEZY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW. CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UP TICK. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO ALL THE AREA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND
FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES...ITS BEEN VERY WARM SO FAR THIS MONTH...6 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW A BRIEF COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK BEFORE IT WARMS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END. FOR
REFERENCE, THE NORMALS FOR PHILLY DURING THE PERIOD ARE LOW TO MID
50S AND MID 30S. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE
WARMING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION...THIS EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES THREE PRECIPITATION
REFERENCES. THE FIRST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITTLE IF
ANY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE SECOND REFERENCE IS MIDWEEK ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. THE THIRD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME
WITH FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
WINDS...NORTH WINDS MAINLY 10 OR LESS SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING
NORTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY ON MONDAY. THE WINDS, 10 OR LESS, WILL
START TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THEY COULD GUST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEK.
IMPACTS...NOTHING WIDESPREAD SHAPING UP ATTM. WHILE WE COULD SEE
SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE SNOW, THEY SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ATTM, IMPACTS APPEAR THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. WE COULD SEE SOME MORNING SPRING FOG LATER IN
THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT IT`T TOO SOON TO DETERMINE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SOME MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS MOSTLY SOUTH OF KPHL. KMIV AND KACY HAVE THE GREATER CHANCE
OF HAVING MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON
THE VISIBILITY AS THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY OVERALL MAY BE
RATHER LIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, HOWEVER FAVORING NORTHEAST
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SUNDAY...VFR CEILINGS NEAR AND NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL OVERALL, WITH
LOWER CEILINGS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE
SHIFTS WESTWARD SOME. AS A RESULT, RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED
FROM KTTN-KPNE-KPHL-KILG ON EASTWARD WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FOR AWHILE ESPECIALLY AT KMIV AND KACY. OUR CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOW SIDE HOWEVER WITH THE IMPACTS AND TIMING AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. NORTHEAST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR, LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR FOR A TIME IN
MOSTLY SNOW VCNTY KACY. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
15- 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WATERS THRU THE PD DUE
TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE CAROLINAS, MOVES OFF THE CST AND THEN UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
THU SUN. ATTM, IT DOES NOT APPEAR GALE CRITERIA WILL BE MET, SO
THE GALE WATCH WAS DROPPED.
OUTLOOK...
SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FAVORED WINDS LESS THAN 35 KT. WENT WITH A
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER BAY.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. A SCA
LOOKS LIKELY. MAYBE GALES MONDAY EVENING.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...DIMINISHING WIND AND HEADLINES NOT
LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SCA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
EXPECT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY FAVORABLE,
AND WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL OFF SHORE, WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS OUR LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR BOTH THE SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER AS A
SLIGHT SHIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD
INCREASE THE THREAT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows trough axis bisecting the KILX CWA
from near Galesburg to just south of Paris. Scattered light rain
showers are occurring in the vicinity of this feature, with a few
obs occasionally reporting light snow. With upper levels continuing
to cool as closed 500mb low tracks southeastward along the
Mississippi River, think a light rain/snow mix will continue through
the early morning. Due to surface temps above freezing and
relatively warm soil conditions, no accumulation is expected. The
trough will gradually settle southward today, pushing any lingering
light precip south of the CWA by midday. Based on current radar
loops and latest HRRR forecast, have carried low chance PoPs
along/south of a Jacksonville to Mattoon line this morning, then
have gone dry everywhere for the afternoon. Skies are currently
cloudy: however, a dry low-level airmass to the northeast has helped
skies clear over Michigan and northern Indiana. As the trough axis
sinks southward and winds become northeasterly, this drier air will
try to work its way into central Illinois. Think portions of the NE
CWA may partially clear for a time this morning, before diurnal CU
redevelops, leading to a partly to mostly cloudy day. High
temperatures will again be below normal for this time of year in the
middle 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
High pressure will build into the region tonight, resulting in
clearing skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the upper
20s and lower 30s. The cool/dry weather will continue into Monday
before the high shifts to the east and a strong southerly return
flow develops Monday night into Tuesday. Pressure gradient between
departing high and developing low over the Plains will result in
sustained southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph on Tuesday, with gusts
reaching 30 mph at times. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and a
good deal of sunshine, high temperatures will soar into the 60s.
A frontal boundary will sag southward into north-central Illinois
Tuesday night. As increasing moisture flows northward and interacts
with the front, a few showers will be possible along/north of a
Peoria to Bloomington line. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible across the entire CWA on Wednesday as the airmass
becomes more unstable and low pressure slowly approaches from the
west. With strongest forcing remaining further north and west, have
only carried slight chance PoPs across most of the area, with higher
PoPs confined to the far north in closer conjunction to the
baroclinic zone.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for the end of the week,
particularly concerning the speed of an approaching short-wave
trough and how fast it will push a frontal boundary through central
Illinois. All models have sped up this process from previous runs,
with the 00z Mar 20 GFS now becoming the fastest. The GFS shows a
991mb over Lake Michigan, with the trailing cold front along the
Illinois/Indiana border by 12z Thu. Meanwhile, both the GEM and
ECMWF have quickened from their prior runs, but are about 12 hours
slower than the GFS. The ECMWF has the low over central Illinois
and the GEM places it over northern Missouri 12z Thu. Given that
the GFS has made such an abrupt change from its solution just 24
hours ago, prefer to side with the slower GEM/ECMWF. As a result,
am focusing the greatest rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday
when likely PoPs for showers/thunder are warranted. Will linger
lower rain chances into Thursday night as the system departs,
followed by a return to dry weather for Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs...except
for a couple of hours at the beginning at CMI where light rain is
occurring. All other sites may or may not see pcpn, so will keep
VCSH at all sites overnight. Cig heights should be 4.5kft to 5kft
overnight. By morning, lower clouds will scatter out with broken
mid clouds around 10kft. Any pcpn should be south of the sites
based on current short term hi-res model forecasts, showing the
sfc trough rotating through the area overnight. With less clouds
tomorrow morning, believe cu will develop during the afternoon and
be broken at times...so have this as a TEMPO group during the
afternoon. By early evening skies should become clear. Winds will
be variable at PIA and BMI, with other sites more northwest to
north. All sites will see northerly winds during the morning and
then become northwest for the afternoon and evening. Wind speeds
will be less than 10kts overnight and tomorrow, then become
10-13kts for the afternoon, then less during the evening.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
311 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...
306 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
FAIRLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WHILE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES BEGIN TUESDAY WITH A BIG WARMUP ACROSS
THE REGION FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AS IT
PASSES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN RACE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
IS NOTED STRETCHING FROM NEAR CMI NORTHWEST TO PIA THEN MLI. A FEW
SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA HOWEVER THOSE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE FOCUS
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BUILDING OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE TODAY...AND DEEP
MIXING CAPPED BY A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIP
FROM OCCURRING TODAY DESPITE SOME MODELS LIKE THE HRRR TRYING TO
BREAK OUT MODEST POPCORN CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S TODAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE FRONT
BUT IF ANYTHING THERE SEEMS POTENTIAL TO GO WARMER IF WE SEE MORE
SUNSHINE. KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO RIGHT AROUND 40
AGAIN IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT PROVIDING CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S. ON MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE THE GRADIENT TO REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...BUT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY
SHUNT ITS INLAND PROGRESS. THIS MAKES TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY FOR
THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE LAKE AS ITS UNSURE HOW MUCH PROGRESS
THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE. AREAS UNAFFECTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE ARE
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE...BUT
NEAR THE LAKE WILL ONLY CALL FOR MID 40S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
306 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BRINGING AT LEAST A DAY OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS A STABLE WAVE
TRANSLATES EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SERVE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO CAUSING A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA OR VERY NEARBY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG JET
IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CARVE OUT A
DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS IT DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW
LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
DISTANCE...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODELS. GFS
TRACKS THE LOW RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
HAS DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK
WHICH TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN THURSDAY. A LOT WILL HINGE ON
THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER VS MIXED PRECIP/SNOW...60S VS 30S FOR TEMPS. AT THIS
DISTANCE...MAINTAINED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO HONE IN FURTHER ON THE DETAILS AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK WITH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A FEW LAYERS OF HIGHER VFR CLOUDS
WRAPPING WESTWARD AROUND THIS CIRCULATION ACROSS THE TERMINALS...
THOUGH RELATIVELY DRY AIR UPSTREAM TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WAS
LIMITING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO JUST SOME PATCHY 2500 FT STRATOCU PER
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO WEB CAM VIEWS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS CURRENTLY AROUND 33010 KT WILL LIKELY BACK MORE NORTHERLY
350-010 DEG SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT TYPICALLY
WILL PRODUCE A NORTHEAST COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A
LAKE BREEZE SUPERIMPOSED ON SYNOPTIC NORTHERLIES. THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED A NORTHEAST WIND FOR ORD/MDW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
200 AM CDT
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY...THEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY GALES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING SOUTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...ALLOWING A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. WEATHER FOR THE WESTERN LAKES WILL THEN
TURN MORE ACTIVE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...WITH A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST AND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL DEEPEN AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
25-30 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PASSES. AS THE
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MOST OF THE LAKE...AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE
30 KT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES
AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WINDS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE WILL
LIKELY BE WEAKER...IN THE REGION OF WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE LOW. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW...THOUGH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES DO APPEAR LIKELY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW SCOOTS BY TO THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
340 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAKNESS RUNNING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. ALONG
THIS...NORTHWEST AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THIS WAY. CLOSER TO HOME...A FEW SPRINKLES OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER CLOUDS EAST OF JKL. ELSEWHERE...
THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP AND RETREATING EAST WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOUND TO THE WEST. THE CLEARING IS
HELPING TO DROP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF EXTRA DEGREES WITH UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE NORTHWEST OF JACKSON WHILE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S ARE NOTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ALSO VARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTH
AND FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH.
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WITH A SLEW OF ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY WILL
BRUSH THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND INTO MONDAY...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS SOME OF THE
MORE RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TO FOLLOW. GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COOL END TO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE WORST OF THE CHILL.
WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...A
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIP JUST EAST OF SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND LIKELY BRUSH THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. FOR
THIS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...BUT...DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATE WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW/TROUGH PASSING BY...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY HAVE ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WX GRIDS FOR
THIS. THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT BY EVENING AND SETS THE STAGE FOR
A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES A GOOD BET ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE WX GRIDS AND WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO AS OUR FROST FREEZE HEADLINE PROGRAM WILL
NOT START FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A SMALL
RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT SET UP AS THE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY...
DESPITE THE CHILLY START.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER. HAVE ADJUSTED
THESE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE SLIGHT TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE FOR TODAY...EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...POPS WERE
KEPT NEAR ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH MAYBE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS...THEREFORE LOWERED VALLEY TEMPS GIVEN THE BEST
CHANCES FOR DECOUPLING. ALSO DID KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
GRIDS FOR MAINLY SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY SPOTS. THIS
SURFACE HIGH DOES BEGIN TO SKIRT EAST AND WE BEGIN TO GET IN THE
RETURN FLOW SIDE BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A
WEAK/FLATTENED OUT RIDGE ALOFT THAT WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. THESE WILL ALL COMBINE WITH DECENT
MIXING OF WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIP OBTAINED OUT OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THE OVERALL DRIER
DAY RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY WHERE RH VALUES RUN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND WINDS GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
WE THEN TURN OUR FOCUS TO THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. MODELS DO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM STILL...BUT SEEM TO HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE WITH THE 00Z GFS
WHICH IS NEARLY 24 HOURS FASTER NOW...AND THIS IS RELATED TO THE
AMPLITUDE AND OPENNESS OF THE TROUGH IN THE LATEST RUNS. THIS
TREND BEGAN LAST NIGHT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND HAS CONTINUED IN THE
GUIDANCE SUITE TODAY. RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THE MODEL
BLEND AND THIS BRINGS THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK WITH LIKELY
POPS GIVEN THAT WE CONTINUE TO GAIN RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WHILE
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE BEST FORCING WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE REGION...AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW GETS PUSHED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. STILL THINK IT IS WORTH A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE T
GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6 TO
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THAT SAID EARLY STAGES BLENDED QPF LOOKS TO RANGE
IN THE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A INCH RANGE...WHICH SEEMS TO
MATCH UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CIPS ANALOGS UNDER THIS REGIME.
BEHIND THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
REGION...FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON TRENDS THINK
TEMPS COULD BE COOLER THAN BLEND ADVERTISES. THIS AS 850 TEMPS ARE
POISED TO DROP INTO THE -2 TO -5 C RANGE. THE COOL DOWN LOOKS
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IMPROVEMENT WILL
GENERALLY OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON FOLLOWING SUNRISE...WITH SJS
HANGING ONTO MVFR CONDITIONS THE LONGEST. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO THREATEN THE I-75
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT
SME...FOR THIS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
313 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAKNESS RUNNING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. ALONG
THIS...NORTHWEST AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THIS WAY. CLOSER TO HOME...A FEW SPRINKLES OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER CLOUDS EAST OF JKL. ELSEWHERE...
THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP AND RETREATING EAST WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOUND TO THE WEST. THE CLEARING IS
HELPING TO DROP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF EXTRA DEGREES WITH UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE NORTHWEST OF JACKSON WHILE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S ARE NOTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ALSO VARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTH
AND FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH.
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WITH A SLEW OF ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY WILL
BRUSH THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND INTO MONDAY...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS SOME OF THE
MORE RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TO FOLLOW. GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COOL END TO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE WORST OF THE CHILL.
WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...A
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIP JUST EAST OF SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND LIKELY BRUSH THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. FOR
THIS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...BUT...DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATE WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW/TROUGH PASSING BY...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY HAVE ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WX GRIDS FOR
THIS. THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT BY EVENING AND SETS THE STAGE FOR
A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES A GOOD BET ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE WX GRIDS AND WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO AS OUR FROST FREEZE HEADLINE PROGRAM WILL
NOT START FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A SMALL
RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT SET UP AS THE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY...
DESPITE THE CHILLY START.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER. HAVE ADJUSTED
THESE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE SLIGHT TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE FOR TODAY...EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...POPS WERE
KEPT NEAR ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL GIVE WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY DEAMPLIFY/FLATTEN AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...IN THE WYOMING/MONTANA/DAKOTAS REGION...WHILE
THE GFS HAS IT PEGGED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. THIS
DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. FROM HERE THE GFS HAS THE LOW LOSING STRENGTH AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE INCREASING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM OUR SOUTH WILL BE THE RECIPE FOR DRY WEATHER
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY STAY
IN THE UPPER 40S...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO THE LOW 60S ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 BY WEDNESDAY UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE BY LATE
WEEK...WITH WPC PLANTING THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST AND NORTH OF KY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PULLING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THIS WILL WORK TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS BRING IN
SOME PRECIP CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER...BUT KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THEY ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE.
COULDN/T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS WELL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS AS WE START TO TAP INTO
SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
OR STRONG...JUST POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS MIXING DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IMPROVEMENT WILL
GENERALLY OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON FOLLOWING SUNRISE...WITH SJS
HANGING ONTO MVFR CONDITIONS THE LONGEST. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO THREATEN THE I-75
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT
SME...FOR THIS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
135 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO ADDRESS THE
SPRINKLES FALLING FROM THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE
CLEARING MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH HIGHER CIGS
SOUTHWEST. ALSO ADDED IN THE LATEST T AND TD GUIDANCE FROM THE
SHORTBLEND...NUDGING THESE BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLEARING EXPANDING
AND WORKING SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS
SUCH...HAVE LOWERED SKY COVER...WITH THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE BETTER CLEARING POTENTIAL NEAR THE
BLUEGRASS. A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND THE HRRR ATTEMPTS TO CAPTURE SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EXPANDED WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE.
HAVE INCLUDED A POCKET OF SPRINKLES SLOWLY WORKING SOUTH AND
FADING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE HRRR HINTS AT. LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET...ALTHOUGH DID EXPAND THE UPPER
20S A BIT FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN THE DECENT CLEARING TRENDS. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REIGN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOME
CLEARING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND SOME OF THIS THINNING MAY
WORK IN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOWS ALONE FOR NOW...HOWEVER READINGS ARE RUNNING A BIT
WARMER THAN FORECAST SO WILL TOUCH THESE UP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND THEN BLEND BACK INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST. WILL WAIT A
COUPLE MORE HOURS AND SEE IF ANY OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDS A BIT MILDER BEFORE ADJUSTING THE LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAD LED
TO A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY JUST TO
OUR NORTH...BUT THIS HAS DISSIPATED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
IOWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE BY
TOMORROW. MOISTURE AND LIFT AND MAY SCRAPE OUR FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THUS...WILL CARRY A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER WET WEATHER TO SPEAK OF IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TO OUR EAST...COLD ADVECTION WILL DRAG
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SKIES LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT MORE BREAKS WILL BE
SEEN BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SKIES START TO CLEAR OFF.
THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FROST. COOP GUIDANCE HAS AREAS REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 20S IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...AND CERTAINLY CANNOT
DISCOUNT THIS POSSIBILITY. THUS...WILL PUT A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT IN THERE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGES STAYING IN THE UPPER
20S. REGARDLESS...THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTEREST OR OUTDOOR
PLANTS WILL WANT TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT ANY EARLY PLANTS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL GIVE WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY DEAMPLIFY/FLATTEN AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...IN THE WYOMING/MONTANA/DAKOTAS REGION...WHILE
THE GFS HAS IT PEGGED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. THIS
DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. FROM HERE THE GFS HAS THE LOW LOSING STRENGTH AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE INCREASING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM OUR SOUTH WILL BE THE RECIPE FOR DRY WEATHER
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY STAY
IN THE UPPER 40S...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO THE LOW 60S ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 BY WEDNESDAY UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE BY LATE
WEEK...WITH WPC PLANTING THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST AND NORTH OF KY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PULLING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THIS WILL WORK TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS BRING IN
SOME PRECIP CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER...BUT KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THEY ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE.
COULDN/T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS WELL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS AS WE START TO TAP INTO
SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
OR STRONG...JUST POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS MIXING DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IMPROVEMENT WILL
GENERALLY OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON FOLLOWING SUNRISE...WITH SJS
HANGING ONTO MVFR CONDITIONS THE LONGEST. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO THREATEN THE I-75
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT
SME...FOR THIS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
402 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK RDG AXIS
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN GENERAL TROFFING IN ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW OVER
THE E HALF OF CANADA AND CLOSED LO OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN
POLAR BRANCH FLOW DOMINATING THE CONUS...ALL DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY
STRONG UPR RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. THERE IS A SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING
ACRS THE UPR LKS. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON LOCAL 00Z RAOBS...
PWAT AS LO AS 0.11 INCH AT APX /ABOUT 40 PCT OF NORMAL/...SKIES ARE
MOCLR. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BLO NORMAL AND INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AT THE COLDER INTERIOR SPOTS WITH LGT WINDS. A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IN CANADA IS DIGGING THRU NW
ONTARIO...BUT THE SHARPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS
ON TRACK TO STAY N OF UPR MI. THE WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP...BUT UPSTREAM OBS
SHOW LTL IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER. THERE ARE MORE CLDS AND SOME SCT
SN SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NW IN ONTARIO/MANITOBA AHEAD OF A SECOND
COLD FNT MOVING INTO THAT AREA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON PCPN/LES CHCS TNGT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND COLD FNT NOW DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA/
NW ONTARIO.
TODAY...SHRTWV IN NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO THE SE...WITH
FIRST COLD FNT CROSSING THE CWA THIS MRNG. SINCE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP
LYR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE N OF UPR MI...THERE WL NO MSTR INFLOW
TO MOISTEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...AND THERE
WL BE LTL IF ANY LLVL CNVGC ALONG THE FIRST COLD FROPA...SUSPECT THE
BULK OF THE MODELS SHOWING A DRY DAY ARE ON TRACK. WL RETAIN SOME
SCHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE LAND CWA THIS AFTN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF SOME DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AS
H85 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -11C BY 00Z SUN DESPITE FCST ACYC NATURE OF
THE H925 NW FLOW.
TNGT...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SECOND COLD
FNT REACHING THE NRN CWA ARND 06Z...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ARND
-14C BY 12Z MON OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. BUT SINCE LARGE SCALE
QVECTOR DVGC WL DOMINATE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV...FCST
H85 TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR LES AND THE TRAILING AIRMASS WL BE ON THE
DRY SIDE WITH MARGINAL LLVL CNVGC FCST...EXPECT NO MORE THAN CHC
POPS FOR THE FROPA AND LES IN ITS WAKE. SINCE THE BULK OF THE
COOLING WL IMPACT AREAS E OF MQT...WL CARRY THE HIER CHC POPS IN
THAT AREA. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SN EVEN IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MQT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CROSSING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL USHER IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A ROUND
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MAINLY THE NNW TO WNW WIND SNOW BELTS IN THE
MORNING. WAA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BACKING WINDS WILL
WILL QUICKLY END THE LES BY LATE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT
FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DUSTING ALONG MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SLOPING
LAYER OF FGEN BELOW 600 HPA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4
INCHES...IS EXPECTED OVER A 4 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES
SUPPORT A VERY WET SNOWFALL THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WET BULB TEMPS CREEP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ON
TUESDAY...SO A MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY A SWITCH OVER TO RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NE
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...CHIEFLY DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE INITIAL SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE GFS REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM PRODUCE A WEAKER SOLUTION AS
THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOWS SIGNS OF TRYING TO CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW. GIVEN DRY EASTERLY FLOW FROM ONTARIO...PRECIP MAY FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE CWA IF THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS PAN OUT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...PLACING UPPER MI ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND IN A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN WITH A BOUT OF
MIXED PRECIP FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ALLOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. A
WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO DROP BACK TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAFS SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS FROM
FALLING TOO LOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW FLURRIES/-SHSN AT EACH TAF
SITE BUT LIMITED MOISTURE GIVES LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS TO VEER TO THE N TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PAIR OF LO PRES TROUGHS. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON MON...THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. AS A WAVE OF LO PRES RIDES ALONG A FRONT TO THE S OF UPPER
MI ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHILE HI PRES BUILDS INTO NW ONTARIO...
WINDS OVER LAKE SUP WILL BECOME ENE UP TO 25 KTS. NE WINDS UP TO 25
TO 30 KTS WILL THEN BE THE RULE FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU UNDER A
RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN PERSISTENT HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND
A LO PRES MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
346 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A STRATUS DECK INTO MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO IN
ITS WAKE. THIS AFTERNOON...AREAS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER
THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI AS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OVER
PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE AND SRN DELTA COUNTIES AIDED BY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THIN AND CELLULAR LOOK TO
THESE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SUGGEST THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIDED ON COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE HIGH-RES CANADIAN WHICH HAD LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SPREAD WEAK LIFT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/FAR NORTH
CWA. AS WINDS SHIFT WNW BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW-LVL
MOISTURE INCREASES AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN TO -10C
TO -11C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO WRN
UPPER MI AND THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES/ISOLD SHSN AS 85H TEMPS
LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE
SHARPER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE LAKE INTO
ONTARIO EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FROPA ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CROSSING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL USHER IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A ROUND
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MAINLY THE NNW TO WNW WIND SNOW BELTS IN THE
MORNING. WAA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BACKING WINDS WILL
WILL QUICKLY END THE LES BY LATE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT
FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DUSTING ALONG MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SLOPING
LAYER OF FGEN BELOW 600 HPA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4
INCHES...IS EXPECTED OVER A 4 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES
SUPPORT A VERY WET SNOWFALL THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WET BULB TEMPS CREEP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ON
TUESDAY...SO A MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY A SWITCH OVER TO RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NE
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...CHIEFLY DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE INITIAL SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE GFS REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM PRODUCE A WEAKER SOLUTION AS
THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOWS SIGNS OF TRYING TO CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW. GIVEN DRY EASTERLY FLOW FROM ONTARIO...PRECIP MAY FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE CWA IF THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS PAN OUT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...PLACING UPPER MI ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND IN A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN WITH A BOUT OF
MIXED PRECIP FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ALLOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. A
WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO DROP BACK TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAFS SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS FROM
FALLING TOO LOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW FLURRIES/-SHSN AT EACH TAF
SITE BUT LIMITED MOISTURE GIVES LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR.
OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY MAINLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS UNTIL E-NE WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A STRATUS DECK INTO MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO IN
ITS WAKE. THIS AFTERNOON...AREAS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER
THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI AS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OVER
PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE AND SRN DELTA COUNTIES AIDED BY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THIN AND CELLULAR LOOK TO
THESE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SUGGEST THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIDED ON COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE HIGH-RES CANADIAN WHICH HAD LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SPREAD WEAK LIFT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/FAR NORTH
CWA. AS WINDS SHIFT WNW BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW-LVL
MOISTURE INCREASES AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN TO -10C
TO -11C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO WRN
UPPER MI AND THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES/ISOLD SHSN AS 85H TEMPS
LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE
SHARPER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE LAKE INTO
ONTARIO EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FROPA ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
HAVE AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES.
FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA SUN
EVENING INTO EARLY SUN NIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/EFFECT SNOW TO NW WIND SNOWBELTS. 850MB TEMPS ARE -10C
TO -12C AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THEN DROP TO -13C TO -15C LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS TURN WLY BY 00Z TUE. MOISTURE
IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...SO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MODELS
DEPICT 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS SUN
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS
DURING THE DAY MON. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S WHERE SNOW
FALLS AND HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 30 N TO THE UPPER 30S SCENTRAL.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AND
WILL MOVE ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS OR JUST S OF THE CWA
AT THE SFC. FGEN FORCING AND WAA ALONG THE SLOPED FRONT WILL ASSIST
IN PROVIDING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW BETWEEN 06Z AND 21Z TUE...MOST
AREAS WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW IN 3-6 HOURS. MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT
PLACEMENT OF SNOW DUE TO PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONT/FGEN/SHORTWAVE...DETAILS OF WHERE THE BEST SNOW FALL IS
UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z/19 GFS IS FARTHER N AND KEEPS THE WI BORDER AREAS
DRIEST (BUT STILL SEEING PRECIP) WHILE THE 00Z/19 ECMWF IS FARTHER S
AND KEEPS THE NRN TIER DRIEST. THE 12Z/19 NAM COMES IN BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF FOR PLACEMENT OF BEST PRECIP. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AND BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS POINT. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE THE GREATEST SNOW
FALLS...WHICH MAY BE DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND E...AND IF THAT FALLS IN 3-6 HOURS IT COULD BRIEFLY
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. SNOW LOOKS TO MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE
DAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE FAR SCENTRAL.
WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE WEEK...IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE WED NIGHT-FRI TIME FRAME (DEPENDING ON
MODEL). MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE THE BEST PRECIP (AROUND AN INCH OF QPF
WITH AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR MAKING SNOW THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE) ALONG OR
SE OF THE SERN BORDER OF THE CWA...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
TRENDING NW. A LOT OF VARIABLES AT PLAY FOR 5-6 DAYS OUT...SO WILL
JUST HAVE TO KEEP CLOSELY MONITORING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ALLOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. A
WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO DROP BACK TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAFS SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS FROM
FALLING TOO LOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW FLURRIES/-SHSN AT EACH TAF
SITE BUT LIMITED MOISTURE GIVES LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR.
OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY MAINLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS UNTIL E-NE WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
PCPN CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO MENTION DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TEMPS
WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW THAT DROPPED SEWD ACROSS IOWA SATURDAY
WAS OVER NERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO RECENT WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SNOW HAD
GENERALLY ENDED IN OUR AREA. WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME ISOLD FLURRIES THIS MORNING OR AN ISOLD SNOW SHOWER IN SWRN
IA THIS AFTN...BUT GENERALLY MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES TODAY SEEM
MINIMAL. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD EWD TODAY. NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER
15 MPH. THAT RIDGE WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH
WARMER DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST OR NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND MIXING
SHOULD NOT BE AS DEEP THERE. FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S NEAR THE SD BORDER AND UPPER 70S AT THE KS BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
THIS PERIOD IS MORE ACTIVE...WITH SEVERAL PCPN CHANCES. THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM WED INTO
THU MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NIGHT NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE
PROFILE INCREASE. 500 MB FLOW WILL BE DIFLUENT OVER OUR AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO CO. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS POINT TUE
NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT FCST SOUNDINGS. IN GENERAL... THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR WED. THE GFS IS
A BIT FASTER WITH THE 500 MB LOW AND HAS THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER
EAST BY 00Z THU. PATTERN SUGGEST SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE OVER
SERN NE AND SWRN IA WED...AND THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME ELEVATED
CAPE. BEYOND WED...WILL GIVE THE 00Z ECMWF THE MOST WEIGHT FOR
DETAILS OF THE FCST. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH BY LATE WED
AFTN FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NW 1/2 OF NERN NE. SNOW CHANCES
LOOK DECENT MOST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
PCPN SHOULD LINGER THU MORNING BUT END BY AFTN BASED ON CURRENT
MODEL TIMING. NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
KOMA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1228 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF PERIOD. LGT NORTH
WIND OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY TRANSITIONING TO WEAK/MODERATE N/NE
FLOW DRG THE AFTERNOON. LGT NORTH WIND AGAIN BY EARLY TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/
DISCUSSION...TEXT PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AS THEY WERE RUNNING TOO COLD AT
THAT TIME. BASICALLY HAVE USED RUC13 DATA (WHICH IS WORKING OUT OK
FOR NOW)...BUT THEN BLENDED THE MODEL MORE TOWARD FORECAST LOWS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...OVERALL TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR LOW WAS NOT
SIGNIFICANT. DID ADJUST CLOUD COVER FOR GENERALLY DIMINISHING OF
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. LEFT REST OF FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.
MARINE...WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE FOR THE BAYS/WATERWAYS SINCE
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST FORECAST DATA SUPPORT THIS. SCA CONTINUES
OFFSHORE. REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS WELL AS CLOUDS...WITH
MAYBE SOME MID LEVEL CIGS AT KLRD (BUT MORE LIKELY SCATTERED).
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z...AND FOR THE MOST PART BE
11 KNOTS OR LESS BY THEN (KCRP ALWAYS A BIT HIGHER AS USUAL).
WINDS BECOME MORE NE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES.
OVERALL...NOT TOO MUCH GOING ON...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MUCH MORE TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING SOME OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE NO LONGER BEING MET...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED IT.
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
MAY CONTINUE A LITTLE PAST 00Z. INCLUDED 10 POPS WITH MENTION OF
WX THROUGH 03Z FOR THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOLER AIR WILL
SPILL INTO SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT DROPPING LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE
40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE COAST WHERE LOWER 50S WILL
BE COMMON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY AND SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR TOMORROW...BUT CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE 60S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY
CHILLY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S...WITH
A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.
MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS
LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE BAYS AND WATERWAYS...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...PUTTING US BACK INTO
RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL TRIGGER A FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP...WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 80S WEST OF I-37 ON TUESDAY THEN OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THAT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COASTAL BEND BY MIDWEEK. MODELS INDICATE WEAK SUPPORT
FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. MORE DRY AND
COOL AIR COMES IN AFTER THIS FRONT...PULLING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL INTO EASTER WEEKEND.
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TIMING ON
THESE MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 43 72 57 78 / 0 0 0 10 10
VICTORIA 65 38 70 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 10
LAREDO 67 44 75 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 67 42 74 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 66 49 68 60 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
COTULLA 67 42 75 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 67 44 74 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 66 52 69 60 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
10 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES AGAIN TODAY...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT/MONDAY...
...MUCH COOLER/DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK...
CURRENT...REGIONAL RADAR MOSIAC LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THE PAST TWO HOURS. TWO MAIN AREAS OF PRECIP FROM EASTERN
SEMINOLE AND ORANGE COUNTIES INTO NORTH BREVARD AND IN MARTIN COUNTY.
LOOP MOTION SHOWS THAT THESE SHOWERS SHOULD TRANSITION INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS NEXT HOUR OR TWO. BUOY AND CMAN MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND A WEST WIND AT THE BUOYS
20NM EAST OF THE CAPE AND AT SEBASTIAN INLET. THE 12Z/8AM NCEP SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT STILL NORTH IN THE NORTHEAST GULF...THE
BIG BEND AREA AND NORTH FLORIDA AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EVERGLADES AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.
WILL UPDATE THE NORTH FORECAST AREA TO SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/20 POP
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP THE HIGHER POP FOR THE CENTER AND SOUTHERN
AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...UNLESS THE RADAR TREND FORCES LAST
MINUTE CHANGES.
UPDATE...
.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS AND TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITY KMCO-KTIX-KXMR
SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.MARINE...THE BUOYS...NOAA AND SCRIPPS...SHOW WEST WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. WINDS LOCAL WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES
WEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT TO THE NORTH NEARS AND MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 332 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
CURRENT...MILD AND MOIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE. MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH VERY LIGHT SWRLY WINDS. NEXRAD 88D SHOWS
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A SLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
TODAY-TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY SUNRISE MON MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND SHOULD LIE NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
BEHIND IT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES AND NORTHERN GOMEX. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND ANY LIGHTNING STORM THREAT.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB WILL STILL BE BETWEEN -11C AND -13C WITH
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL POOL TO
AROUND 1.70 INCHES AHEAD/ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE MCLOUDY...THOUGH ANY PEAKS OF SUNSHINE MAY ACT TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
OVERALL WEAK. WILL INSTALL 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS ALONG I-4 NORTHWARD
INCREASING TO 50 TO 80 PERCENT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MARTIN COUNTY.
WHILE THE THUNDER THREAT WILL BE LOW OVERALL...BELIEVE GREATEST
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOUTHWARD FROM ORLANDO THROUGH THE DAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST. MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST
AT 30 TO 40 MPH.
WSW/W SURFACE FLOW WILL OCCUR WITH WINDS BECOMING WNW BEHIND IT
LATER TODAY AND A BIT MORE NWRLY TONIGHT. EXPECT A WIND SURGE LATER
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH WIND SPEEDS BECOMING BREEZY 15
TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE M-U70S ACROSS I-4 AND U70S TO L80S SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
COVERAGE WARNING AREA. MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING OVER MARTIN
COUNTY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE M-U40S NORTH OF I-4...U40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE INTERIOR/SPACE COAST...EXCEPT L/M50S TREASURE COAST.
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WINDS TOWARD EARLY MON MORNING TEMPERATURES
WILL FEEL LIKE L-M40S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
MON-MON NIGHT...DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR MASS
WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. ASIDE FROM SOME UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AT THE START OF THE DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S (ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR MID MARCH). RIDGE AXIS WILL SIT JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AT
SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THANKS TO EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID
40S MOST AREA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM MELBOURNE SOUTH
THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST.
TUE-THU...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE JUST TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER MIDWEEK ALLOWING TEMPS AND MOISTURE TO MODIFY. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...LOW END PRECIP CHANCES
ENTER THE PICTURE BEGINNING THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH OF ORLANDO.
FRI-SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE WORKWEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
BOTH OF THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS POINT TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING
OUT NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
TRAVERSING OVER THE AREA LOOK TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON SOUTHWARD FROM KMCO. A
SMALL THREAT OF THUNDER WILL EXIST TOO...MAINLY SOUTH OF KMCO. TEMPO
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PCPN TODAY. LIGHT W/WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BECOMING WNW/NW BEHIND IT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS AROUND
15 KTS AND FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS PAST MID EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
WILL MONITOR THIS MORNING FOR MVFR CIGS AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL COVERAGE OF THIS. SKY CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR
FILTERS DOWN THE PENINSULA.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERY
OFFSHORE MOVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FORECAST WITH THUNDER
POSSIBLE...MAINLY CAPE SOUTHWARD. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
GREATEST CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS SOUTHWARD FROM SEBASTIAN INLET.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING. GENERALLY WESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH WINDS BECOMING WNW/NW LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 6-12 KTS AREAWIDE
TODAY...INCREASING BEHIND A WIND SURGE TONIGHT TO 25-30 KTS OFFSHORE
AND 20-25 KTS NEAR SHORE AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
OPEN ATLC LATE TONIGHT. TO KEEP ADVISORIES CLEAN...WILL INITIATE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE LEGS BEGINNING AT 02Z/10PM
TONIGHT. INITIAL SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT
OFFSHORE...GRADUALLY BUILDING LATE OVERNIGHT TO 6-8 FT OFFSHORE AND
5-6 FT NEAR SHORE ALL BY DAYBREAK MON MORNING.
MON...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON
MONDAY WITH HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RELAX LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. SCA`S
LIKELY TO BE SCALED BACK AS WE HEAD INTO LATE MON NIGHT.
TUE-THU...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX MIDWEEK AS NORTH WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY THE
SOUTHEAST. WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY BUT COULD SEE A SMALL
THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM BY WED NIGHT AS
MOISTURE SLOWLY REBUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...TONIGHT...WNW/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEHIND A RECENT COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT.
MON-TUE...MUCH COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK AHEAD.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF MIN RHS IN
THE M-U20S ACROSS INTERIOR COUNTIES AND RANGING FROM THE M-U30S
ALONG THE EAST COAST. NW/N WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY ON MON AS THE
PGRAD REMAINS TIGHT. DEPENDING ON ERC VALUES ON MON...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS (WIND/RH) MON
AFTERNOON. RHS BEGIN A SLOW/GRADUAL RECOVERY ON TUE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL MAY SEE AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE U20S/L30S WELL INTO THE INTERIOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 47 64 44 / 50 10 0 0
MCO 80 50 67 43 / 40 10 0 0
MLB 78 50 65 45 / 70 10 0 0
VRB 78 54 65 48 / 70 20 0 0
LEE 77 50 67 41 / 40 0 0 0
SFB 77 49 66 43 / 40 10 0 0
ORL 79 49 67 43 / 40 10 0 0
FPR 80 54 65 48 / 70 20 10 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1044 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
Upper level low and associated showers pulling off to the south
this morning. Some clearing behind the showers off to the north,
but expect will fill in with cu this afternoon. The first day of
spring is a little cooler than the past week...and a couple of
degrees below normal. Large changes in the forecast are not
expected at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows trough axis bisecting the KILX CWA
from near Galesburg to just south of Paris. Scattered light rain
showers are occurring in the vicinity of this feature, with a few
obs occasionally reporting light snow. With upper levels continuing
to cool as closed 500mb low tracks southeastward along the
Mississippi River, think a light rain/snow mix will continue through
the early morning. Due to surface temps above freezing and
relatively warm soil conditions, no accumulation is expected. The
trough will gradually settle southward today, pushing any lingering
light precip south of the CWA by midday. Based on current radar
loops and latest HRRR forecast, have carried low chance PoPs
along/south of a Jacksonville to Mattoon line this morning, then
have gone dry everywhere for the afternoon. Skies are currently
cloudy: however, a dry low-level airmass to the northeast has helped
skies clear over Michigan and northern Indiana. As the trough axis
sinks southward and winds become northeasterly, this drier air will
try to work its way into central Illinois. Think portions of the NE
CWA may partially clear for a time this morning, before diurnal CU
redevelops, leading to a partly to mostly cloudy day. High
temperatures will again be below normal for this time of year in the
middle 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
High pressure will build into the region tonight, resulting in
clearing skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the upper
20s and lower 30s. The cool/dry weather will continue into Monday
before the high shifts to the east and a strong southerly return
flow develops Monday night into Tuesday. Pressure gradient between
departing high and developing low over the Plains will result in
sustained southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph on Tuesday, with gusts
reaching 30 mph at times. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and a
good deal of sunshine, high temperatures will soar into the 60s.
A frontal boundary will sag southward into north-central Illinois
Tuesday night. As increasing moisture flows northward and interacts
with the front, a few showers will be possible along/north of a
Peoria to Bloomington line. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible across the entire CWA on Wednesday as the airmass
becomes more unstable and low pressure slowly approaches from the
west. With strongest forcing remaining further north and west, have
only carried slight chance PoPs across most of the area, with higher
PoPs confined to the far north in closer conjunction to the
baroclinic zone.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for the end of the week,
particularly concerning the speed of an approaching short-wave
trough and how fast it will push a frontal boundary through central
Illinois. All models have sped up this process from previous runs,
with the 00z Mar 20 GFS now becoming the fastest. The GFS shows a
991mb over Lake Michigan, with the trailing cold front along the
Illinois/Indiana border by 12z Thu. Meanwhile, both the GEM and
ECMWF have quickened from their prior runs, but are about 12 hours
slower than the GFS. The ECMWF has the low over central Illinois
and the GEM places it over northern Missouri 12z Thu. Given that
the GFS has made such an abrupt change from its solution just 24
hours ago, prefer to side with the slower GEM/ECMWF. As a result,
am focusing the greatest rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday
when likely PoPs for showers/thunder are warranted. Will linger
lower rain chances into Thursday night as the system departs,
followed by a return to dry weather for Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
Low VFR cigs with tempo MVFR cigs this morning in isolated light
rain and snow showers. The precip threat ends by 14z with forecast
soundings suggesting some decent low level mixing occurring which
should result in higher based cigs this afternoon (3500-5000 ft).
The weather system producing the cloud cover and light precip
should push south of our area by later this afternoon with a
decrease in cloud cover expected tonight as weak high pressure
settles in from the west. Surface winds will be northerly today at
10 to 15 kts with a light northwest flow expected tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
610 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...
306 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
FAIRLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WHILE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES BEGIN TUESDAY WITH A BIG WARMUP ACROSS
THE REGION FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AS IT
PASSES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN RACE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
IS NOTED STRETCHING FROM NEAR CMI NORTHWEST TO PIA THEN MLI. A FEW
SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA HOWEVER THOSE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE FOCUS
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BUILDING OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE TODAY...AND DEEP
MIXING CAPPED BY A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIP
FROM OCCURRING TODAY DESPITE SOME MODELS LIKE THE HRRR TRYING TO
BREAK OUT MODEST POPCORN CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S TODAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE FRONT
BUT IF ANYTHING THERE SEEMS POTENTIAL TO GO WARMER IF WE SEE MORE
SUNSHINE. KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO RIGHT AROUND 40
AGAIN IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT PROVIDING CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S. ON MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE THE GRADIENT TO REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...BUT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY
SHUNT ITS INLAND PROGRESS. THIS MAKES TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY FOR
THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE LAKE AS ITS UNSURE HOW MUCH PROGRESS
THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE. AREAS UNAFFECTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE ARE
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE...BUT
NEAR THE LAKE WILL ONLY CALL FOR MID 40S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
306 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BRINGING AT LEAST A DAY OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS A STABLE WAVE
TRANSLATES EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SERVE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO CAUSING A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA OR VERY NEARBY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG JET
IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CARVE OUT A
DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS IT DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW
LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
DISTANCE...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODELS. GFS
TRACKS THE LOW RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
HAS DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK
WHICH TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN THURSDAY. A LOT WILL HINGE ON
THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER VS MIXED PRECIP/SNOW...60S VS 30S FOR TEMPS. AT THIS
DISTANCE...MAINTAINED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO HONE IN FURTHER ON THE DETAILS AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK WITH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
ONLY MINOR AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING IS DETAILS OF WIND
DIRECTION FOR ORD/MDW TODAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH AN EXPECTED TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AS LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS WITHIN BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC
NORTH FLOW. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO BE AROUND 10 KT...GENERALLY 9-13
KT. GRADIENT WEAKENS TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH LIGHT/VARIABLE PERIODS POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...STILL SEEING SOME FEW020-025 DRIFTING
IN FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH OVERALL SHOULD SEE
DECREASING VFR CLOUD COVER.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
200 AM CDT
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY...THEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY GALES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING SOUTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...ALLOWING A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. WEATHER FOR THE WESTERN LAKES WILL THEN
TURN MORE ACTIVE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...WITH A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST AND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL DEEPEN AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
25-30 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PASSES. AS THE
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MOST OF THE LAKE...AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE
30 KT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES
AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WINDS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE WILL
LIKELY BE WEAKER...IN THE REGION OF WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE LOW. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW...THOUGH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES DO APPEAR LIKELY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW SCOOTS BY TO THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
602 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows trough axis bisecting the KILX CWA
from near Galesburg to just south of Paris. Scattered light rain
showers are occurring in the vicinity of this feature, with a few
obs occasionally reporting light snow. With upper levels continuing
to cool as closed 500mb low tracks southeastward along the
Mississippi River, think a light rain/snow mix will continue through
the early morning. Due to surface temps above freezing and
relatively warm soil conditions, no accumulation is expected. The
trough will gradually settle southward today, pushing any lingering
light precip south of the CWA by midday. Based on current radar
loops and latest HRRR forecast, have carried low chance PoPs
along/south of a Jacksonville to Mattoon line this morning, then
have gone dry everywhere for the afternoon. Skies are currently
cloudy: however, a dry low-level airmass to the northeast has helped
skies clear over Michigan and northern Indiana. As the trough axis
sinks southward and winds become northeasterly, this drier air will
try to work its way into central Illinois. Think portions of the NE
CWA may partially clear for a time this morning, before diurnal CU
redevelops, leading to a partly to mostly cloudy day. High
temperatures will again be below normal for this time of year in the
middle 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
High pressure will build into the region tonight, resulting in
clearing skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the upper
20s and lower 30s. The cool/dry weather will continue into Monday
before the high shifts to the east and a strong southerly return
flow develops Monday night into Tuesday. Pressure gradient between
departing high and developing low over the Plains will result in
sustained southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph on Tuesday, with gusts
reaching 30 mph at times. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and a
good deal of sunshine, high temperatures will soar into the 60s.
A frontal boundary will sag southward into north-central Illinois
Tuesday night. As increasing moisture flows northward and interacts
with the front, a few showers will be possible along/north of a
Peoria to Bloomington line. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible across the entire CWA on Wednesday as the airmass
becomes more unstable and low pressure slowly approaches from the
west. With strongest forcing remaining further north and west, have
only carried slight chance PoPs across most of the area, with higher
PoPs confined to the far north in closer conjunction to the
baroclinic zone.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for the end of the week,
particularly concerning the speed of an approaching short-wave
trough and how fast it will push a frontal boundary through central
Illinois. All models have sped up this process from previous runs,
with the 00z Mar 20 GFS now becoming the fastest. The GFS shows a
991mb over Lake Michigan, with the trailing cold front along the
Illinois/Indiana border by 12z Thu. Meanwhile, both the GEM and
ECMWF have quickened from their prior runs, but are about 12 hours
slower than the GFS. The ECMWF has the low over central Illinois
and the GEM places it over northern Missouri 12z Thu. Given that
the GFS has made such an abrupt change from its solution just 24
hours ago, prefer to side with the slower GEM/ECMWF. As a result,
am focusing the greatest rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday
when likely PoPs for showers/thunder are warranted. Will linger
lower rain chances into Thursday night as the system departs,
followed by a return to dry weather for Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
Low VFR cigs with tempo MVFR cigs this morning in isolated light
rain and snow showers. The precip threat ends by 14z with forecast
soundings suggesting some decent low level mixing occurring which
should result in higher based cigs this afternoon (3500-5000 ft).
The weather system producing the cloud cover and light precip
should push south of our area by later this afternoon with a
decrease in cloud cover expected tonight as weak high pressure
settles in from the west. Surface winds will be northerly today at
10 to 15 kts with a light northwest flow expected tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
605 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
07Z water vapor imagery shows a closed upper low over northeast MO
with a shortwave trough rotating through east central KS. An upper
level ridge was gradually amplifying over the western half of the
U.S. as an upper trough sets up over the eastern Pacific. Surface
obs indicated the center of a cold high pressure system was over the
NEB panhandle with some cold air advection occurring at the surface.
For today and tonight, the weather should be quiet with no real
sensible weather anticipated. There is a consensus among the models
that any forcing for precip will shifting east with the closed upper
low and the upper level ridge should replace it as it propagates
east into the plains. Additionally there is no moisture advection
anticipated into an already dry airmass. About the only thing to
watch is for some lingering mid clouds on the back side of the upper
low across eastern KS. We may start to see some weak warm air
advection today as the center of the surface ridge passes to the
south and winds shift to the west. However models are slow to bring
much warmer air into the region as as the warm air advection
occurs late in the day and 850MB temps remain in the -2C to
-4C range. So even with deep mixing through 850MB, highs are only
expected to be around 50 this afternoon. Freezing temps are expected
again for Monday morning as skies clear and the boundary layer
radiates out. Although lows should be a tad warmer since there is
expected to be a south and southwest wind to keep some mixing. This
is likely to impact locations up on hills more so than spots within
the KS river valley. With this in mind, have lows in the mid 20s for
the low lying areas and lows around 30 for locations that are
slightly more elevated and exposed to the wind.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
Main concern for the week is fire weather conditions being in the
elevated to potentially critical through Wednesday this week for
portions of the area. This is in part to an upper trough entering
the Pacific NW, developing an elongated sfc trough from British
Columbia through the western plains region. Southerly winds are
expected to increase between 20 and 25 mph along and south of the
Interstate 70 corridor with weaker winds to the north. Some
uncertainty exists on RH values Monday as moisture advection
increases dewpoints into the 30s during the afternoon. Latest runs
of the MET guidance combined with RAW guidance are showing slightly
cooler highs in the upper 60s. I am siding closer to the MAV
guidance given how it has handled the abnormally warmer temps seen
in previous forecasts. So with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s, min
RH values range between 25 and 30 percent. Because of this
reasoning, confidence in location of a fire weather watch was too
low to issue. Will be considering a watch in the next forecast
period.
For Tuesday and Wednesday, fire danger concerns increase as winds
remain gusty during the overnight periods and speeds during the
afternoon are likely between 15 to 25 mph sustained. On Tuesday,
these winds center over far east central Kansas where on Wednesday
they spread westward towards central Kansas. Stronger mixing aloft
will overcome the moisture advection especially north central Kansas
on Tuesday with min RH in the lower 20s, becoming more widespread on
Wednesday as the dry line/cold front enters the CWA. Its likely that
we will have fire weather headlines sometime during this three day
period.
Focus shifts to precip chances as the upper trough axis tracks over
Kansas late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Confidence
in this system is still low as now the ECMWF has become more
inconsistent with the Canadian in the speed of the system, now being
considered the slower solutions. With the slower speeds comes better
dynamics and forcing with the wave, developing a nice deformation
zone on the northwest side of the low during the day Thursday.
Meanwhile the GFS is much faster and not so realistic with how
quickly it ends precip. Current forecast overall shows increasing
uncertainty that much of the area could be in the dry slot of the
system, receiving little to no precip. Therefore trended pops down
Wednesday evening, especially over east central areas. If any precip
occurs during early evening hours, steepening mid level lapse rates
could produce an isolated storm. After midnight, temps quickly fall
in the lower to middle 30s, suggesting a rain snow mix. The next
upper shortwave trough is quick to follow for the weekend. The
positive tilt of the system and its progressive nature would suggest
a chance for some light rain, especially Saturday evening with the
best forcing centered over the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
The RAP and NAM suggest the MVFR stratocu will linger over TOP and
FOE until around 15Z. This seems to line up with the current
satellite trends. Once the lower clouds move east, VFR conditions
should prevail due to a lack of forcing and dry air in the lower
atmosphere.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
810 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
UPDATE THE FORECAST PRIMARILY FOR SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAKNESS RUNNING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. ALONG
THIS...NORTHWEST AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THIS WAY. CLOSER TO HOME...A FEW SPRINKLES OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER CLOUDS EAST OF JKL. ELSEWHERE...
THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP AND RETREATING EAST WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOUND TO THE WEST. THE CLEARING IS
HELPING TO DROP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF EXTRA DEGREES WITH UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE NORTHWEST OF JACKSON WHILE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S ARE NOTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ALSO VARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTH
AND FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH.
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WITH A SLEW OF ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY WILL
BRUSH THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND INTO MONDAY...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS SOME OF THE
MORE RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TO FOLLOW. GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COOL END TO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE WORST OF THE CHILL.
WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...A
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIP JUST EAST OF SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND LIKELY BRUSH THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. FOR
THIS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...BUT...DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATE WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW/TROUGH PASSING BY...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY HAVE ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WX GRIDS FOR
THIS. THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT BY EVENING AND SETS THE STAGE FOR
A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES A GOOD BET ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE WX GRIDS AND WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO AS OUR FROST FREEZE HEADLINE PROGRAM WILL
NOT START FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A SMALL
RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT SET UP AS THE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY...
DESPITE THE CHILLY START.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER. HAVE ADJUSTED
THESE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE SLIGHT TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE FOR TODAY...EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...POPS WERE
KEPT NEAR ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH MAYBE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS...THEREFORE LOWERED VALLEY TEMPS GIVEN THE BEST
CHANCES FOR DECOUPLING. ALSO DID KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
GRIDS FOR MAINLY SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY SPOTS. THIS
SURFACE HIGH DOES BEGIN TO SKIRT EAST AND WE BEGIN TO GET IN THE
RETURN FLOW SIDE BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A
WEAK/FLATTENED OUT RIDGE ALOFT THAT WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. THESE WILL ALL COMBINE WITH DECENT
MIXING OF WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIP OBTAINED OUT OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THE OVERALL DRIER
DAY RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY WHERE RH VALUES RUN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND WINDS GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
WE THEN TURN OUR FOCUS TO THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. MODELS DO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM STILL...BUT SEEM TO HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE WITH THE 00Z GFS
WHICH IS NEARLY 24 HOURS FASTER NOW...AND THIS IS RELATED TO THE
AMPLITUDE AND OPENNESS OF THE TROUGH IN THE LATEST RUNS. THIS
TREND BEGAN LAST NIGHT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND HAS CONTINUED IN THE
GUIDANCE SUITE TODAY. RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THE MODEL
BLEND AND THIS BRINGS THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK WITH LIKELY
POPS GIVEN THAT WE CONTINUE TO GAIN RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WHILE
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE BEST FORCING WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE REGION...AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW GETS PUSHED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. STILL THINK IT IS WORTH A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE T
GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6 TO
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THAT SAID EARLY STAGES BLENDED QPF LOOKS TO RANGE
IN THE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A INCH RANGE...WHICH SEEMS TO
MATCH UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CIPS ANALOGS UNDER THIS REGIME.
BEHIND THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
REGION...FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON TRENDS THINK
TEMPS COULD BE COOLER THAN BLEND ADVERTISES. THIS AS 850 TEMPS ARE
POISED TO DROP INTO THE -2 TO -5 C RANGE. THE COOL DOWN LOOKS
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT WILL PUSH EAST
FOLLOWING SUNRISE. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRAY
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO THREATEN THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT SME...FOR THIS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
723 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK RDG AXIS
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN GENERAL TROFFING IN ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW OVER
THE E HALF OF CANADA AND CLOSED LO OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN
POLAR BRANCH FLOW DOMINATING THE CONUS...ALL DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY
STRONG UPR RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. THERE IS A SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING
ACRS THE UPR LKS. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON LOCAL 00Z RAOBS...
PWAT AS LO AS 0.11 INCH AT APX /ABOUT 40 PCT OF NORMAL/...SKIES ARE
MOCLR. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BLO NORMAL AND INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AT THE COLDER INTERIOR SPOTS WITH LGT WINDS. A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IN CANADA IS DIGGING THRU NW
ONTARIO...BUT THE SHARPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS
ON TRACK TO STAY N OF UPR MI. THE WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP...BUT UPSTREAM OBS
SHOW LTL IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER. THERE ARE MORE CLDS AND SOME SCT
SN SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NW IN ONTARIO/MANITOBA AHEAD OF A SECOND
COLD FNT MOVING INTO THAT AREA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON PCPN/LES CHCS TNGT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND COLD FNT NOW DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA/
NW ONTARIO.
TODAY...SHRTWV IN NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO THE SE...WITH
FIRST COLD FNT CROSSING THE CWA THIS MRNG. SINCE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP
LYR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE N OF UPR MI...THERE WL NO MSTR INFLOW
TO MOISTEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...AND THERE
WL BE LTL IF ANY LLVL CNVGC ALONG THE FIRST COLD FROPA...SUSPECT THE
BULK OF THE MODELS SHOWING A DRY DAY ARE ON TRACK. WL RETAIN SOME
SCHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE LAND CWA THIS AFTN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF SOME DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AS
H85 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -11C BY 00Z SUN DESPITE FCST ACYC NATURE OF
THE H925 NW FLOW.
TNGT...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SECOND COLD
FNT REACHING THE NRN CWA ARND 06Z...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ARND
-14C BY 12Z MON OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. BUT SINCE LARGE SCALE
QVECTOR DVGC WL DOMINATE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV...FCST
H85 TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR LES AND THE TRAILING AIRMASS WL BE ON THE
DRY SIDE WITH MARGINAL LLVL CNVGC FCST...EXPECT NO MORE THAN CHC
POPS FOR THE FROPA AND LES IN ITS WAKE. SINCE THE BULK OF THE
COOLING WL IMPACT AREAS E OF MQT...WL CARRY THE HIER CHC POPS IN
THAT AREA. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SN EVEN IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MQT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CROSSING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL USHER IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A ROUND
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MAINLY THE NNW TO WNW WIND SNOW BELTS IN THE
MORNING. WAA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BACKING WINDS WILL
WILL QUICKLY END THE LES BY LATE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT
FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DUSTING ALONG MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SLOPING
LAYER OF FGEN BELOW 600 HPA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4
INCHES...IS EXPECTED OVER A 4 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES
SUPPORT A VERY WET SNOWFALL THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WET BULB TEMPS CREEP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ON
TUESDAY...SO A MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY A SWITCH OVER TO RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NE
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...CHIEFLY DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE INITIAL SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE GFS REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM PRODUCE A WEAKER SOLUTION AS
THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOWS SIGNS OF TRYING TO CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW. GIVEN DRY EASTERLY FLOW FROM ONTARIO...PRECIP MAY FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE CWA IF THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS PAN OUT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...PLACING UPPER MI ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND IN A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN WITH A BOUT OF
MIXED PRECIP FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE WNW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING WEAK COLD FNT
MIGHT CAUSE SOME MVFR CIGS AT CMX THIS MRNG...DRYNESS OF AIRMASS
DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB SUGGESTS VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO
THIS EVNG EVEN AS SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE CLDS DVLP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/INCRSG LLVL INSTABILITY. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR TNGT WL
LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS AND ALSO SOME -SHSN.
BUT RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE INCOMING CHILLY AIR SHOULD LIMIT PCPN
INTENSITY/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS TO VEER TO THE N TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PAIR OF LO PRES TROUGHS. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON MON...THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. AS A WAVE OF LO PRES RIDES ALONG A FRONT TO THE S OF UPPER
MI ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHILE HI PRES BUILDS INTO NW ONTARIO...
WINDS OVER LAKE SUP WILL BECOME ENE UP TO 25 KTS. NE WINDS UP TO 25
TO 30 KTS WILL THEN BE THE RULE FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU UNDER A
RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN PERSISTENT HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND
A LO PRES MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
PCPN CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO MENTION DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TEMPS
WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW THAT DROPPED SEWD ACROSS IOWA SATURDAY
WAS OVER NERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO RECENT WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SNOW HAD
GENERALLY ENDED IN OUR AREA. WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME ISOLD FLURRIES THIS MORNING OR AN ISOLD SNOW SHOWER IN SWRN
IA THIS AFTN...BUT GENERALLY MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES TODAY SEEM
MINIMAL. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD EWD TODAY. NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER
15 MPH. THAT RIDGE WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH
WARMER DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST OR NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND MIXING
SHOULD NOT BE AS DEEP THERE. FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S NEAR THE SD BORDER AND UPPER 70S AT THE KS BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
THIS PERIOD IS MORE ACTIVE...WITH SEVERAL PCPN CHANCES. THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM WED INTO
THU MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NIGHT NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE
PROFILE INCREASE. 500 MB FLOW WILL BE DIFLUENT OVER OUR AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO CO. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS POINT TUE
NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT FCST SOUNDINGS. IN GENERAL... THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR WED. THE GFS IS
A BIT FASTER WITH THE 500 MB LOW AND HAS THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER
EAST BY 00Z THU. PATTERN SUGGEST SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE OVER
SERN NE AND SWRN IA WED...AND THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME ELEVATED
CAPE. BEYOND WED...WILL GIVE THE 00Z ECMWF THE MOST WEIGHT FOR
DETAILS OF THE FCST. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH BY LATE WED
AFTN FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NW 1/2 OF NERN NE. SNOW CHANCES
LOOK DECENT MOST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
PCPN SHOULD LINGER THU MORNING BUT END BY AFTN BASED ON CURRENT
MODEL TIMING. NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS A WEAK AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. LIGHT NORTHWEST SFC
WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
836 AM PDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...A FRONT IS MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. EXPECT RAIN OVER MOST THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH TODAY AROUND 7000 FEET LOWERING TO 5500 TO 6500 FT THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY, IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA, AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST NAM
AND HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS, HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH TO INCLUDE EASTERN
DOUGLAS, JACKSON, PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES AND FROM CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BASED
ON WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TODAY ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, THIS EVENING EXPECT DECREASING SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AROUND 4-4500 FT WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 4500-5000 FT EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
SPREADING INTO COAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY
WEATHER. ADDITIONAL GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS ON MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND 4500 TO 5500 FEET MONDAY AND EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE HIGHER PASSES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VIS TO THE COAST THIS MORNING. INLAND, RAIN
WILL ALSO MOVE IN TODAY, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY VFR UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS AND
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOWERING CEILINGS TO THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT THEN INLAND ON MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 315 AM PDT SUN 20 MAR 2016...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BRING GALES AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF GALES WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY A WEST SWELL AND REACH A PEAK ON
MONDAY NIGHT THEN REMAIN HIGH INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WITH MODERATE SEAS WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS BECOMING HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH SEAS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH INTO
SATURDAY. -DW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM PDT SUN MAR 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE COAST THIS MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND INTO
THE ROGUE VALLEY MID MORNING. MODELS INDICATE WINDS AT 925 MB
TURNS SW INTO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP INCREASE
COASTAL WINDS. AREAS NEAR CAPE BLANCO COULD SEE WIND GUST TO NEAR
50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE SHASTA VALLEY AND PARTS OF
THE EAST SIDE WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS. HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT
SUITE OF WIND ADVISORIES GOING.
ASIDE FROM MT SHASTA AND SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY..PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AROUND 4-4500 FT WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 4500-5000 FT EAST. THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY.
THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO MOUNTAIN SNOW AS
THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET IN THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS. WE ARE CURRENT FORECASTING AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW
AT CRATER LAKE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW
ON MOUNT SHASTA ABOVE 6500 FEET. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FEET. ANOTHER 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
CC/CC/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
815 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL PA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE ASSOC COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL EAST OF
PA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...GIVING WAY TO
A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE E COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR WOULD IMPLY IT SHOULD BE SNOWING OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER THE DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
NOT REACHING THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY IMPLIES FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER UP INTO SW
PA THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEST LIFT IS OVER THIS BOUNDARY AND
IN PA OVER SW PA WHERE THERE IS SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW.
THE HRRR AND SHORT TERM MODELS IMPLY BEST PLACE FOR SNOW IN IN SW
PA AND ALONG MD BORDER. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
AND FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW IN
PLACE AND A COLD MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY DAY OVER THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPDATE THE GRIDS...USING NEW GUIDANCE KEPT FORECAST SIMILAR WITH
THEME OF THE WAVE AND FORCING FOR SNOW SLIDING MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST. OUR SE COUNTIES WILL BE ON NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. SO...KEPT SNOW OVERNIGHT IN S/SE AS SREF
AND OTHER EFS DATA IMPLY A GOOD CHANCE FOR 0 TO A FEW INCHES
BIASED TOWARD ZERO. THINGS IMPROVE MONDAY POPS GO BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE FAST EARLY MONDAY.
PREVIOUS: UPPER LVL TROF AXIS WILL SWING THRU TONIGHT AS ASSOC
COASTAL LOW MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO SE PA THIS EVENING. DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTHERN PA WILL LIMIT THE CHC OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LOOK SITUATED TO PICK UP A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SNOW/SHSN ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVS OF SOUTHEAST PA ARE UNLIKELY TO YIELD ANY ACCUMS DUE
TO WARM GROUND/SFC TEMPS.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
AM IN WAKE OF TROF...CAUSING SKIES TO CLEAR. MONDAY LOOKS BLUSTERY
AND CHILLY...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN MISS VALLEY HIGH AND
COASTAL LOW E OF NEW ENG. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUSTS ARND
25KTS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTN.
COLD TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CU BY AFTN...ESP
OVR THE NW MTNS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARND -8C ARE JUST COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE M30S OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE M40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RISING HEIGHTS AND A SW TO WEST FLOW OF MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WORK
INTO THE AREA AFTER MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PLACEMENT OF
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF W ATLANTIC RIDGE.
00Z ECENS/NAEFS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF PA WED-THU
WITH THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE N TIER COUNTIES. BEST CHC
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS LIKELY TO COME FRIDAY...AS
E COAST RIDGE WEAKENS AND SIG SHORTWAVE WORKS EAST THRU THE GRT
LKS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BLOSSOM OVER
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...ALTHOUGH NO
REFLECTION IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND.
EXPECT MOIST EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN
CLOUDS...BEING AIDED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER THE LAURELS LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS BY
13Z IN KJST...AND LOWERED VSBYS IN SHSN BY 18Z.
OTHER THAN KJST...HAVE NOW KEPT ALL TAFS VFR FOR THE DAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH IF SOME LIGHT SNOW DOES WORK INTO KLNS AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. IF THIS DOES MATERIALIZE...WOULD LIKELY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS THERE AS WELL.
WIND SHIFT TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z...PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL PA TAFS
BETWEEN 01Z AND 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY MONDAY MORNING COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS UP FOR TUESDAY. WHILE LOWER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...NEXT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEM NOT SLATED UNTIL LATE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
MON...SNOW SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
TUE...VFR.
WED-THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1138 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER WEST TN AT THE MOMENT...WITH
A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS CLEARING ACROSS THE
PLATEAU THIS MORNING...IT WILL SERVE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND MIDLEVEL TEMPS COOL. THE HRRR AND
RAP AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO. LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR 10
C/KM...WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE OF 100-200 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE...AND SOME PEA-SIZED HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 12Z OHX
SOUNDING IS AROUND 2000 FT. ELEVATIONS ABOVE THIS LEVEL MAY SEE
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE
LATEST NAM AMOUNTS OF 4-6 IN THE MOUNTAINS SEEMS OVERDONE...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST PEAKS...BUT BASED ON THE SREF AND
GFS...2-4 WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 2000 FT FROM 20Z-MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 34 56 35 / 50 30 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 31 50 34 / 70 50 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 49 32 52 34 / 70 40 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 48 29 48 31 / 30 20 10 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-
MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST
POLK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR LEE-
SCOTT-WASHINGTON.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
400 AM MDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY EAST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD SLACKEN UP LATE THIS
MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER. UPPER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND MONDAY AS
A NEW PACIFIC STORM ORGANIZES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A QUICK WARMUP WITH HIGHS MONDAY BACK TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY...BRINGING STRONG AFTERNOON WINDS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH
BLOWING DUST. THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
COOLING TEMPERATURES SOME ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE
STRONG BUT BLOWING DUST MAY BE LESS OF AN IMPACT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO CHILL THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE PRESSURE RISES OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAVE ALLOWED
BREEZY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
TERRAIN. WEST EL PASO MESONET SHOWS SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30S MPH
RANGE. HRRR WIND FIELD SHOWS THIS NICELY AND DROPS WINDS OFF AFTER
15Z. LOWER CLOUD FIELD EXPANDED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
AND SPREAD DOWN TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SAC MOUNTAINS. LOOKS
MORE LIKE SC THAN STRATUS AS OBS SHOWS BASES AROUND 8000-9000 FT
MSL WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS SUGGESTING TOPS AROUND 14000 FT. STILL
LOW ENOUGH TO HANG UP ON OUR FAR EAST TERRAIN. NAM12 INITIALIZES
THIS VERY WELL AND DOES NOT MOVE CLOUDS ANY FURTHER WEST...AND
DISSIPATING THEM BY 15-18Z. ALSO TO OUR WEST...CONSIDERABLE HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MUCH OF THIS WILL DISSIPATE IN SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS TODAY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY OR MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER.
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES EAST NEW MEXICO MONDAY AS PACIFIC
STORM ORGANIZES OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL SWITCH
SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN RAPID WARMUP. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW
AND STORM SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MID LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND STRONG LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. THESE TWO FACTS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW BOTH ADVISORY AND NEAR
WARNING CRITERIA IN DIFFERENT SPOTS. SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORIES
SUGGEST GOOD BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL CONSIDERING THE AREA HAS NOT
RECEIVED ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SINCE LATE DECEMBER.
SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO
DECREASE SOME AND BLOWING DUST TO SUBSIDE. KELP PROG GFS PROG
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT EAST SLOPE EVENT TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS 60-70 MPH. NEW SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHOULD HELP DIMINISH SURFACE GRADIENT A BIT
FOR WEDNESDAY BUT MID LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE STRONG...SO ANOTHER
WINDY DAY. WEST TRAJECTORIES ALONG WITH COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT SUGGEST BLOWING DUST MAYBE LIMITED TO DEMING-LORDSBURG AREA.
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WILL DRAG SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z...
VFR CONDS BETWEEN SKC TO FEW250 THRU PERIOD. STRONGER WINDS IN THE
MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BECOMING LIGHTER BETWEEN 5-
10 AFTER 18Z. EAST WINDS UNTIL 18Z THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
PATCHES OF BKN080 TOPS 140 OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS...SLOWLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THIS MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER YESTERDAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BEFORE GOING BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
TOMORROW MONDAY...AS A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS IN THE AREA. RH
AND VENT RATES WILL BE LOW AND POOR TODAY. HOWEVER...VENT
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOMORROW AND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. ON TUESDAY CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
VERY STRONG WEST WINDS AND LOW RH`S BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL GENERATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ULTIMATELY LEADING TO A
POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND AFTERWARDS WIND STRENGTH SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
AVOID CRITICAL CONDITIONS. ALSO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 66 44 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 63 38 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 65 37 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 65 39 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 49 24 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 41 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 61 35 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 68 37 78 42 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 70 37 78 40 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 43 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 62 36 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 67 43 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 62 40 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 66 43 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 66 40 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 42 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 67 30 77 36 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 68 37 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 70 37 80 44 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 43 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 55 31 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 57 27 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 55 30 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 63 27 72 31 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 67 36 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 66 31 77 37 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 65 24 72 30 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 64 34 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 70 23 76 28 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 70 19 75 26 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 35 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 71 38 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 70 36 80 41 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 39 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 71 38 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/CRESPO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1043 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.UPDATE...
PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY. I AM STILL EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING FROM MADISON AND WEST WHERE THERE
IS A SUBTLE PUSH OF COLDER 925MB AIR. THESE SHOULD MIX OUT AND THIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE SHORELINE WILL WEAKEN AND TURN NORTHEAST WITH
A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS.
THERE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS INLAND TO KEEP THE LAKE
BREEZE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL IMPACT
THE MAX TEMPS IN MILWAUKEE... RACINE AND KENOSHA CITIES NEAR THE
LAKESHORE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
BKN 2500-3500 FT CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM MSN AND WEST
PRIOR TO 18Z BUT THEN THIN OUT TO SCT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
CLOUD BASES RISE TO 4000 TO 5000 FT. THEN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FOR
TNT.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTH
LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THE NEXT TIME PERIOD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS IS TUESDAY
MORNING FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI WHILE ONLY A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN OVER ROCK AND WALWORTH
COUNTIES. THE UPPER LOW OVER MO AND ITS TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
LATER TODAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES THIS AFT AND EVE. THUS EXPECT A CONTINUED DECREASE OF
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE
AFT. 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 0C YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY
WHICH AGREES WELL WITH MOS GUIDANCE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
FORM BY THE MIDDLE AFT AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE LAKE. FOR
TNT...STRONGER NWLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED WITH SCT-BKN
HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE MS RIVER
BY 12Z MON. LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WESTERLY AS STRENGTHENING
JET ENERGY ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. UPSTREAM WAVE BREAKING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY WITH
RIPPLES EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE IN
THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS US QUIET WEATHER LOCALLY
ON MONDAY...BEFORE SLIDING TO OUR EAST BY EVENING. THIS OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NOSE OF
A STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET POINTS INTO THE AREA. FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE FIELDS SUGGEST SOME DECENT LIFT TAKING PLACE...HOWEVER
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WHICH MUST BE
OVERCOME TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITION. FOR NOW KEPT THE DRY
FORECAST GOING...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE LIGHT
LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD GIVEN THE
ADVERTISED FORCING.
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR MILD TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTH WHERE HIGHS
COULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT...WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT CHILLER FOR THE NORTHERN LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER WAVE PROGRESSES FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AS A DEEPENINIG SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND IS MAXIMIZED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER
THE 20.00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
TO AROUND ONE INCH IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS QUITE GOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH JET-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...700-400 MB DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM THERMAL ADVECTION ALL PRESENT. QPF
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY UNCERTANITY
FOR US AT THIS JUNCTURE IS PRECIPITATION TYPE. ON THE STRONGER AND
FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WE HAVE THE 20.00Z
GFS...WHICH BRINGS A 991 MB SFC LOW THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN SERVICE
AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE A WARMER SOLUTION WITH THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORTING MOSTLY RAIN IN OUR SOUTH WITH A MIXY SOLUTION
TO THE NORTH. A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY SFC LOW TRACK IS
PRESENTED VIA THE 20.00Z ECMWF WITH THE 995 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI AT THIS SAME TIME. THIS WOULD BE A COLDER SOLUTION MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY TO
SEVERAL INCHES. THE 20.00Z GGEM APPEARS IN SOME RESPECTS SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF IN TRACK...BUT IS MUCH SLOWER. NEEDLESS TO SAY THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
REGARING THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM SO WE/LL BE WATCHING
THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST IS MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. A SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A
DRY NLY FLOW. SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT EXPECTED FOR THE AFT. THEN
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FOR TNT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SPM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
555 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TO NEAR BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY REACHING EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY PULLING A
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
SATURDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD FASTER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS DELAWARE AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY. WE ARE GETTING
REPORTS OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN SOME SLEET EARLIER. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW JERSEY ESPECIALLY TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW TO START THEN
MORE OF A MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN. THE RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR AWHILE LONGER BEFORE A TRANSITION TO MORE
SNOW AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING BETTER. A NEW SNOW MAP HAS ALSO
BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB. TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS AND WINDS WERE
ALSO TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THEN SOME BLENDING
IN OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS DONE.
THE HRRR RAMPS THINGS UP BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z AND 06Z WITH THE GREATEST
AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHCS ARE THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO. THERE LOOKS TO BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE WEST, BUT IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THAT CUTOFF WILL BE. WE DO NOTE THAT THE DEW POINTS ARE MUCH
MUCH LOWER ATTM THE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE GOES. AS AN EXAMPLE
AT 21Z, THE DEW POINT AT MOUNT POCONO WAS 3F WHILE AT GEORGETOWN
IT WAS 38F.
WITH NATURAL DIURNAL COOLING, A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS CHANGE WILL BE ENHANCED WHERE PRECIP COMES
DOWN HEAVIEST, WHICH HAS THE BEST CHC OF OCCURRING ALONG THE
COAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS IS, WITH
THESE AREAS HAVING THE GREATEST CHC OF OBTAINING THE HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS. THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON NON-PAVED
SURFACES, HOWEVER SOME BANDING LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES FOR A TIME AND
THIS IS WHEN AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS CAN OCCUR. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING SNOW AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING ERLY IN THE PD, BUT WILL
END BY LATE MRNG WITH IMPROVING CONDS AND CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SUN BY
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY NW WIND, WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 20 TO
25 MPH INLAND AND HIGHER CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH INCOMING RIDGING AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND IN THE MID LEVELS. THE HIGHER PRESSURE IS TRANSIENT AND
WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MODELS
VARY, BUT A FEW SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT DOWN AS FAR SOUTH AS
EASTERN PA AND NJ. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTHWARD,
PUTTING US IN THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO A COLD FROPA. THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS UNCERTAIN. THE WINDOW IS BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER OF
THE WEEKEND DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES...CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL ON
TUESDAY. AVERAGES SHOULD WARM TO ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR FRIDAY
BECAUSE THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT IS IN QUESTION. IF IT`S FASTER,
TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME CLIMBING ONCE AGAIN TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION...THE REGION WILL BE PRECIP FREE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WHAT TIME OF
DAY THE FRONT PASSES WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON ANY POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, AT TIMES, TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
GUSTS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
GUSTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COULD RAMP UP AGAIN ON
SUNDAY IF THE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH WORKS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC.
IMPACTS...NO WIDESPREAD IMPACTS THIS COMING WEEK ARE EXPECTED. WITH
THE BACK DOOR FRONT POTENTIALLY DIPPING INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
WEEK, WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE POOL AT THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF IT. THIS SITUATION MIGHT YIELD SOME MORNING SPRING FOG THAT
COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES DURING THE A.M. RUSH. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW
WEAK INSTABILITY ATTM, WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR KRDG AND KABE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE IN FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT. IF
THAT OCCURS, BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. NE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN WILL BECOME NW ON MON AND INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KT.
FOR KTTN, KPNE, KPHL AND KILG...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TO IFR AS
PRECIP, NOW MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX CHANGES OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW. EXPECT THE CHANGE OVER TO OCCUR BEFORE 06Z. WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE ON MON GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 25 KT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE 18Z. VFR WILL
THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR KMIV AND KACY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z BEFORE SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION NOW
IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX NOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SNOW NEAR 06Z. WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY 12Z AND
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND MONDAY NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON ON BOTH DAYS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT IS LOW ATTM.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED. WINDS
EXPECTED TO GO NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT. SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.MARINE...
530 PM UPDATE...SEAS WERE INCREASED BY ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
THE GLW FOR THE SRN WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE SCA FOR THE
NRN WATERS AND LWR DEL BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU MON.
ADDITIONALLY UPR DEL BAY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SCA AS CONDS HAVE
BEEN CLOSE TO SCA AT BRANDYWINE AND WITH NWLY FLOW EXPECTED ON
MON, WIND COULD BECOME EVEN HIGHER ON THE NRN PORTION OF THE DEL
BAY.
OUTLOOK...
CONTINUING TO LOOK LIKE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD...
MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SCA VERY LIKELY. GALES
A POSSIBILITY. GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.
TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH AND BACKING TO SOUTHWEST
BY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW. POSSIBLE SCA THOUGH THE 25 KT GUSTS
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE VERY NEARSHORE WATERS SINCE IT WILL BE MILD
AIR OVERRIDING COOLER MID-UPPER 40S SSTS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO OUR WATERS NOR THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF THE BACK DOOR DROPS INTO
THE REGION THE WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY. REGARDLESS OF TIMING, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN BREEZY WITH 2 SEPARATE FRONTS IN THE VICINITY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING AND THE HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE TREND OF A SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE
LOW, BOTH GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS
FALLING SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS BY A HALF A FOOT OR MORE.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE FURTHER WEST TRACK, IS THAT WATER LEVELS
WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE WATER LEVELS
OF THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE (PREVIOUSLY THE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING
WAS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS).
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY WITH THE ANOMALIES FOR THIS
EVENINGS HIGH TIDE, BUT STILL THINK THE THREAT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE HWO.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALL DAILY RECORDS
MAR 20
ACY 5.0 1914
THE FOLLOWING WAS GENERATED BY SARAH JOHNSON ET AL, ALL BELOW
PREDICATED ON OFFICIAL MEASURABLE SNOW.
IF PHILADELPHIA MEASURES TONIGHT IT WILL BE THE 7TH TIME SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN THAT THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW HAS OCCURRED AFTER
THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR. THE OTHER YEARS WERE 1892,
1921, 1928, 1967 1990 AND 2000.
ALL OF THESE YEARS HAD THEIR EARLIER THAN NORMAL FIRST 80 DEGREE
DAY.
ABE: 6 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1963, 1967, 1978, 1986, 1990, 2014)
ACY: 2 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1990)
ILG: 4 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1985, 1990, 2000)
MARCH THROUGH 19 DAYS IS AVERAGING ABOUT 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL... WARMEST NORTH.
AS OF NOW WE ARE TRACKING 4TH WARMEST MARCH IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE
FOR PHILADELPHIA DATING BACK TO 1874. WE`VE RUN CALCULATIONS BASED
ON TODAY 330 AM FORECAST THROUGH THE 26TH, THE FTPRHA GFS 2M
MAX/MIN FROM D8-11 AND THEN NORMAL LOW HI FOR THE 31ST AND PROJECTING
PHILADELPHIA EASILY A PROBABLE TOP 10 WARMEST. THE AVG MAY SLIP A
BIT FROM THE CURRENT 50.1 DEGREES (PLUS 8.9 DEGREES SO FAR) BUT WE
ARE PROJECTING TO BE ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN
OF 43.5. IF ITS 50 DEGREES... THIS WOULD BE THE 4TH WARMEST MARCH
BEHIND
52.5 1921
52.2 2012
51.2 1945
AND JUST AHEAD OF 49.8 IN 1946.
ABE THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED #4 WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO
1922
ACY THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 6TH WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO
1874
ILG THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 10TH, RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1895.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
020-022-026-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE, OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES, WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY ON MONDAY. A
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TO NEAR
BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. IT MAY TRACK AS FAR SOUTH AS
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC
ON FRIDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE,
TRACKING UP FROM THE SOUTH, MAY AFFECT THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
PRECIP ASSOCD WITH THE CSTL LOW HAS MOVED INTO DE AND EXTREME SRN NJ
ATTM. IT IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN, DUE TO TEMPS IN THE 40S.
DEWPTS ARE GRADUALLY COMING UP AS WELL. SOME SLEET MIXED IN CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE,
MAINLY IN SRN AND ERN AREAS.
ONCE AGAIN, THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS AND IT
SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BIGGEST RAMP UP WILL BE BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z WITH
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE THRU ABOUT 06Z. GUID STILL SUGGEST THE BEST
CHCS ARE THE FURTHER S AND E YOU GO. THE 12Z GUID MADE A SLIGHT EWD
SHIFT AND THERE LOOKS TO BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NW, BUT IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THAT CUTOFF WILL BE.
THE NEXT BIG QUESTION, AND THE MOST IMPORTANT ONE, IS WHAT FORM THE
PRECIP WILL TAKE. RIGHT NOW ITS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FCST. HOWEVER, DEW
PTS ARE QUITE LOW, IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MANY AREAS, SO THERE IS
DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND WITH COOLING OF THE COLUMN, TEMPS WILL
SETTLE IN THE 30S. WITH NATURAL DIURNAL COOLING, A TRANSITION TO
SNOW SHOULD OCCUR DURG THE EVE HOURS,. THIS CHANGE WILL BE ENHANCED
WHERE PRECIP COMES DOWN HEAVIEST, WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
OCCURRING ALG THE CST.
QPF AMTS ARE ALSO A BIT IN QUESTION, WITH THE NAM AND GFS HIGHER
THAN THE ECMWF, BUT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS LOWER THAN THEIR OVERNIGHT
RUNS. FOR NOW, WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN AND KEEP THE
WINTER WX ADVY. IT MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES,
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIP CHANGES OVER AND HOW HEAVY IT MAY
FALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING ERLY IN THE PD, BUT WILL
END BY LATE MRNG WITH IMPROVING CONDS AND CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SUN BY
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY NW WIND, WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 20 TO
25 MPH INLAND AND HIGHER CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH INCOMING RIDGING AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND IN THE MID LEVELS. THE HIGHER PRESSURE IS TRANSIENT AND
WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MODELS
VARY, BUT A FEW SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT DOWN AS FAR SOUTH AS
EASTERN PA AND NJ. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTHWARD,
PUTTING US IN THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO A COLD FROPA. THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS UNCERTAIN. THE WINDOW IS BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER OF
THE WEEKEND DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES...CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL ON
TUESDAY. AVERAGES SHOULD WARM TO ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR FRIDAY
BECAUSE THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT IS IN QUESTION. IF IT`S FASTER,
TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME CLIMBING ONCE AGAIN TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION...THE REGION WILL BE PRECIP FREE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WHAT TIME OF
DAY THE FRONT PASSES WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON ANY POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, AT TIMES, TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
GUSTS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
GUSTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COULD RAMP UP AGAIN ON
SUNDAY IF THE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH WORKS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC.
IMPACTS...NO WIDESPREAD IMPACTS THIS COMING WEEK ARE EXPECTED. WITH
THE BACK DOOR FRONT POTENTIALLY DIPPING INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
WEEK, WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE POOL AT THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF IT. THIS SITUATION MIGHT YIELD SOME MORNING SPRING FOG THAT
COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES DURING THE A.M. RUSH. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW
WEAK INSTABILITY ATTM, WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR KRDG AND KABE...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD. NE WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN WILL BECOME NW ON MON AND INCREASE
IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.
FOR KTTN, KPNE, KPHL AND KILG...VFR CONDS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR AS PRECIP MOVES IN. PRECIP SHUD START AS -RA LATER
THIS AFTN BUT SHUD MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO -SN DURG
THE EVE. WIND WILL BECOME NWLY AND INCREASE ON MON GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 25 KT. DURG THE LATE MRNG, CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR WILL
THEN BE EXPECTED FRO THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD.
FOR KMIV AND KACY. MVFR CONDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING WITH -RA
OCCURRING. -RA SHUD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO -SN DURG THE EVE. ITS
PSBL THERE CUD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIP. CONDS WILL DROP TO
IFR. WIND WILL BECOME NWLY BY MRNG AND CUD GUST AS HIGH AS 25 KT.
DURG THE LATE MRNG, CONDS WILL BECOME VFR, AND REMAIN VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
MONDAY NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 15
TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON ON BOTH DAYS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT IS LOW ATTM.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED. WINDS
EXPECTED TO GO NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT. SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GLW FOR THE SRN WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE SCA
FOR THE NRN WATERS AND LWR DEL BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU MON.
ADDITIONALLY UPR DEL BAY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SCA AS CONDS HAVE
BEEN CLOSE TO SCA AT BRANDYWINE AND WITH NWLY FLOW EXPECTED ON MON,
WIND COULD BECOME EVEN HIGHER ON THE NRN PORTION OF THE DEL BAY.
OUTLOOK...
CONTINUING TO LOOK LIKE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD...
MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SCA VERY LIKELY. GALES
A POSSIBILITY. GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.
TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH AND BACKING TO SOUTHWEST
BY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW. POSSIBLE SCA THOUGH THE 25 KT GUSTS
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE VERY NEARSHORE WATERS SINCE IT WILL BE MILD
AIR OVERRIDING COOLER MID-UPPER 40S SSTS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO OUR WATERS NOR THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF THE BACK DOOR DROPS INTO
THE REGION THE WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY. REGARDLESS OF TIMING, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN BREEZY WITH 2 SEPARATE FRONTS IN THE VICINITY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING AND THE HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE TREND OF A SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE
LOW, BOTH GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS
FALLING SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS BY A HALF A FOOT OR MORE.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE FURTHER WEST TRACK, IS THAT WATER LEVELS
WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE WATER LEVELS
OF THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE (PREVIOUSLY THE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING
WAS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS).
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY WITH THE ANOMALIES FOR THIS
EVENINGS HIGH TIDE, BUT STILL THINK THE THREAT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE HWO.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALL DAILY RECORDS
MAR 20
ACY 5.0 1914
THE FOLLOWING WAS GENERATED BY SARAH JOHNSON ET AL, ALL BELOW
PREDICATED ON OFFICIAL MEASURABLE SNOW
IF PHILADELPHIA MEASURES TONIGHT IT WILL BE THE 7TH TIME SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN THAT THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW HAS OCCURRED AFTER
THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR. THE OTHER YEARS WERE 1892,
1921, 1928, 1967 1990 AND 2000.
ALL OF THESE YEARS HAD THEIR EARLIER THAN NORMAL FIRST 80 DEGREE
DAY.
ABE: 6 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1963, 1967, 1978, 1986, 1990, 2014)
ACY: 2 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1990)
ILG: 4 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1985, 1990, 2000)
MARCH THROUGH 19 DAYS IS AVERAGING ABOUT 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL... WARMEST NORTH.
AS OF NOW WE ARE TRACKING 4TH WARMEST MARCH IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE
FOR PHILADELPHIA DATING BACK TO 1874. WE`VE RUN CALCULATIONS BASED
ON TODAY 330 AM FORECAST THROUGH THE 26TH, THE FTPRHA GFS 2M
MAX/MIN FROM D8-11 AND THEN NORMAL LOW HI FOR THE 31ST AND PROJECTING
PHILADELPHIA EASILY A PROBABLE TOP 10 WARMEST. THE AVG MAY SLIP A
BIT FROM THE CURRENT 50.1 DEGREES (PLUS 8.9 DEGREES SO FAR) BUT WE
ARE PROJECTING TO BE ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN
OF 43.5. IF ITS 50 DEGREES... THIS WOULD BE THE 4TH WARMEST MARCH
BEHIND
52.5 1921
52.2 2012
51.2 1945
AND JUST AHEAD OF 49.8 IN 1946.
ABE THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED #4 WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO
1922
ACY THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 6TH WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO
1874
ILG THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 10TH, RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1895.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR NJZ013-014-020-022-026-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1226 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY MONDAY. A
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW MONDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERN
STATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
TO NEAR BERMUDA WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY SAG SOUTH
INTO NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH OF MAINE FRIDAY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFF THE
EAST COAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAPPY FIRST DAY OF SPRING!
TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE AND LOCATIONS S AND E ARE NOW INTO
THE 40S, WITH MOST IN THE N AND W IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THESE
TEMPS ARE ON AVG 2 TO 3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN FCST. AGAIN, THANKS TO
THE LATE MARCH SUN! SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY HIT OR EXCEEDED THEIR
FCST HIGH FOR THE DAY SO MADE SO ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS. DON`T
THINK TEMPS WILL RISE THAT MUCH MORE BUT ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES
IS PSBL.
OVERALL HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING SITUATION WELL AGAIN, THO IT
DOESN`T HAVE THE PRECIP CURRENTLY ON RADAR OFF THE SRN NJ/DE CST.
IT CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THRU LATE AFTN. THEN IT
RAMPS THINGS UP S AND E AND REALLY GETS THINGS GOING DURG THE ERLY
EVE. THE 12Z NAM (THE ONLY 12Z GUID AVAILABLE FOR THIS UPDATE) HAS
SSHOWN A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT WITH ITS QPF FIELD.
WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW, THE WARMER TEMPS NECESSITATE MORE
OF A MENTION OF RAIN THRU THE AFTN OR AT LEAST RAIN AND SNOW. WHAT
HAPPENS BEYOND THAT WILL BE DETERMINED WHEN ADDITIONAL GUID
ARRIVES.
LTST RADAR SHOWS PRECIP OVER THE DELMARVA HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND
NO PRECIP ACRS THE REGION ATTM. GUID INDICATES THAT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SRN AREAS, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY BEFORE PRECIP POTENTIAL RAMPS UP DURG THE LATE
AFTN/ERLY EVE.
WILL WAIT UNTIL THE MRNG MDL GUID COMES IN BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THE FCST, SHUD THEY BE NEEDED.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS DUE TO
THE WARMER SURFACES AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE MID-MARCH HAS TO OFFER.
AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING, THE INTENSITY MAY START TO PICK UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS, PRECIPITATING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN OVER TO ALL SNOW. AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR
LESS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT EXPECT THE BULK
OF ANY SNOW THAT FALLS TO INITIALLY ONLY STICK TO THE NON-PAVED
SURFACES WITH THE ROADS BECOMING SLUSHY.
FURTHER INLAND, THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR WILL PREVENT
PRECIPITATION TO INITIALLY MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IT MIGHT
TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR THE DRY AIR TO ERODE BUT EVENTUALLY, THERE
WILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
IN ADDITION, IT WILL BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A BIT EVEN WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WITH THE GUIDANCE HOLDING ITS COURSE THIS MORNING, AND EVEN
PUSHING SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
WITH THE HI-RES MODELS SHOWING BANDING OCCURRING ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS AND GOOD LIFT AND SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE TONIGHT, WE HAVE UPPED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY BUT ARE STILL LOOKING
AT 2 TO 4 INCHES FALLING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.
THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE MORE WINTRY THAN SPRING-LIKE.
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY AS SNOW, PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST AREAS, THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVIEST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS, THE COLUMN WILL COOL AND WITH THE SUN NO
LONGER AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT, WE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW TAKE PLACE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND WHEN ALL IS SAID
AND DONE, WE MAY HAVE UP TO 4 INCHES ON THE GROUND, MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 MPH
BY LATE TONIGHT, REMAINING WINDIER ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY
WITH ITS AMPLIFYING 140M 12HR HFC SCOOTING NEWD FROM THE DELMARVA.
NW FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE LONG WAVE TOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FLATTENING
TO WESTERLY FLOW DURING MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS WARM. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES (REFLECTING POTENTIAL ENERGY USE): CALENDAR DAY
AVERAGES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WARMING TO
NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY, THEN ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COOLING SATURDAY TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FOR REFERENCE, THE NORMALS FOR PHILLY
DURING THE PERIOD ARE LOW TO MID 50S AND MID 30S.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/20 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, THEREAFTER THE 00Z/20 GFS MEX MOS-
05Z/20 WPC GUIDANCE. THIS FCST WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 00Z/20
ECMWF OPERATIONAL CYCLE.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY...A BLUSTERY CHILLY NW FLOW WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES IN NJ AND NE PA ENDING EARLY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
NW WIND GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISHING AT
NIGHT. HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND WE WILL HAVE TO CHECK WITH OUR PARTNERS HOW TO
HANDLE, AFTER TONIGHTS SNOW. IF SNOW DOESNT ACCUMULATE OR SNOW/RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN FORECAST, THEN WE WOULD BE QUITE CONCERNED
ABOUT FIRE DANGER. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE N PTN LATE IN ADVANCE OF A SEWD SAGGING
COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTY 15 TO 25
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE N PTN
IN ADVANCE OF A SEWD SAGGING COLD FRONT. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY HAVE SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE
DELMARVA. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS WITH A 50 50 BLEND
OF THE 00Z/20 ECMWF AND WPC. WINDS PROBABLY TURNING SOUTHEAST TO
EAST. BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME IN THIS PERIOD. EVENTUALLY TURNING A BIT COOLER. BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...FOR NOW IT LOOKS NICE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS SHUD REMAIN TO THE N AND W THRU THE TAF PD. ALG THE I-95
CORRIDOR, TEMPS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FCST THIS AFTN, SO ANY
PRECIP THAT FALLS LATER MAY ENDO UP BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR
MORE RAIN THAN SNOW AT THE ONSET. THIS CUD, IN TURN KEEP VSBYS VFR
LONGER. BY LATER THIS EVE, AS TEMPS COOL AND PRECIP CUD GET
HEAVIER MORE SNOW WILL MIX IN AND AN EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER IS
EXPECTED, WHICH WILL BRING CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR AND PSBLY
IFR.
FOR THE SERN ARPTS. MVFR IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTN WITH IFR TO
FOLLOW. AGAIN, RAIN IS ANTICIPATED, BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO BACK TO THE NORTH. GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS ARE PSBL ESPECIALLY FROM PHL S AND E.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...ANY LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS IN EARLY SNOW SHOWERS ENDS
BY 15Z. BECOMING VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BY 18Z/21. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. PATCHES OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
5000FT. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND MONDAY NIGHT BECOMING
SW TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR PATCHES OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. GUSTY WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...PROBABLY VFR. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY COMPLICATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN WITH EASTERLY WINDS. BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG HARBOR SOUTH TO FENWICK ISLAND. THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE CAROLINAS,
REMAINING TO THE EAST OF OUR WATERS. SEAS HAVE ALREADY STARTED
TO BUILD IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AND WE ARE SEEING SEAS EXCEEDING 5
FEET AT BUOY 44009 ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN UP AS THE LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST AND THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED WINDS, WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OCCURRING THIS
EVENING. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SCA PROBABLE.
MAYBE A PERIOD OF NW GALES MONDAY EVENING? FOR NOW... LESS THAN 6
HOURS OF GALE GUSTS BUT WILL NEED RECONSIDERATION FOR THE WATCH
WARNING PROCESS IN UPCOMING FORECASTS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...W-NW WINDS DIMINISH AND BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON.
HEADLINES NOT LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SCA THOUGH THE 25 KT GUSTS
WOULD BE CONFINED TO NEARSHORE WATERS SINCE IT WILL BE MILD AIR
OVERRIDING COOLER MID-UPPER 40S SSTS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THURSDAY...THE WIND MAY TURN EASTERLY BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
EXPECT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY FAVORABLE, AND
WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL OFF SHORE. BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE
AS WELL AS OUR LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING
SHY OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR BOTH THIS EVENINGS AND THE
MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER
AS A SLIGHT SHIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
COULD INCREASE THE THREAT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALL DAILY RECORDS
MAR 20
ACY 5.0 1914
THE FOLLOWING WAS GENERATED BY SARAH JOHNSON ET AL, ALL BELOW
PREDICATED ON OFFICIAL MEASURABLE SNOW
IF PHILADELPHIA MEASURES TONIGHT IT WILL BE THE 7TH TIME SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN THAT THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW HAS OCCURRED AFTER
THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR. THE OTHER YEARS WERE 1892,
1921, 1928, 1967 1990 AND 2000.
ALL OF THESE YEARS HAD THEIR EARLIER THAN NORMAL FIRST 80 DEGREE
DAY.
ABE: 6 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1963, 1967, 1978, 1986, 1990, 2014)
ACY: 2 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1990)
ILG: 4 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1985, 1990, 2000)
MARCH THROUGH 19 DAYS IS AVERAGING ABOUT 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL... WARMEST NORTH.
AS OF NOW WE ARE TRACKING 4TH WARMEST MARCH IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE
FOR PHILADELPHIA DATING BACK TO 1874. WE`VE RUN CALCULATIONS BASED
ON TODAY 330 AM FORECAST THROUGH THE 26TH, THE FTPRHA GFS 2M
MAX/MIN FROM D8-11 AND THEN NORMAL LOW HI FOR THE 31ST AND PROJECTING
PHILADELPHIA EASILY A PROBABLE TOP 10 WARMEST. THE AVG MAY SLIP A
BIT FROM THE CURRENT 50.1 DEGREES (PLUS 8.9 DEGREES SO FAR) BUT WE
ARE PROJECTING TO BE ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN
OF 43.5. IF ITS 50 DEGREES... THIS WOULD BE THE 4TH WARMEST MARCH
BEHIND
52.5 1921
52.2 2012
51.2 1945
AND JUST AHEAD OF 49.8 IN 1946.
ABE THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED #4 WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO
1922
ACY THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 6TH WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO
1874
ILG THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 10TH, RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1895.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR NJZ013-014-020-022-026-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1257 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
Upper level low and associated showers pulling off to the south
this morning. Some clearing behind the showers off to the north,
but expect will fill in with cu this afternoon. The first day of
spring is a little cooler than the past week...and a couple of
degrees below normal. Large changes in the forecast are not
expected at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows trough axis bisecting the KILX CWA
from near Galesburg to just south of Paris. Scattered light rain
showers are occurring in the vicinity of this feature, with a few
obs occasionally reporting light snow. With upper levels continuing
to cool as closed 500mb low tracks southeastward along the
Mississippi River, think a light rain/snow mix will continue through
the early morning. Due to surface temps above freezing and
relatively warm soil conditions, no accumulation is expected. The
trough will gradually settle southward today, pushing any lingering
light precip south of the CWA by midday. Based on current radar
loops and latest HRRR forecast, have carried low chance PoPs
along/south of a Jacksonville to Mattoon line this morning, then
have gone dry everywhere for the afternoon. Skies are currently
cloudy: however, a dry low-level airmass to the northeast has helped
skies clear over Michigan and northern Indiana. As the trough axis
sinks southward and winds become northeasterly, this drier air will
try to work its way into central Illinois. Think portions of the NE
CWA may partially clear for a time this morning, before diurnal CU
redevelops, leading to a partly to mostly cloudy day. High
temperatures will again be below normal for this time of year in the
middle 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
High pressure will build into the region tonight, resulting in
clearing skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the upper
20s and lower 30s. The cool/dry weather will continue into Monday
before the high shifts to the east and a strong southerly return
flow develops Monday night into Tuesday. Pressure gradient between
departing high and developing low over the Plains will result in
sustained southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph on Tuesday, with gusts
reaching 30 mph at times. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and a
good deal of sunshine, high temperatures will soar into the 60s.
A frontal boundary will sag southward into north-central Illinois
Tuesday night. As increasing moisture flows northward and interacts
with the front, a few showers will be possible along/north of a
Peoria to Bloomington line. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible across the entire CWA on Wednesday as the airmass
becomes more unstable and low pressure slowly approaches from the
west. With strongest forcing remaining further north and west, have
only carried slight chance PoPs across most of the area, with higher
PoPs confined to the far north in closer conjunction to the
baroclinic zone.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for the end of the week,
particularly concerning the speed of an approaching short-wave
trough and how fast it will push a frontal boundary through central
Illinois. All models have sped up this process from previous runs,
with the 00z Mar 20 GFS now becoming the fastest. The GFS shows a
991mb over Lake Michigan, with the trailing cold front along the
Illinois/Indiana border by 12z Thu. Meanwhile, both the GEM and
ECMWF have quickened from their prior runs, but are about 12 hours
slower than the GFS. The ECMWF has the low over central Illinois
and the GEM places it over northern Missouri 12z Thu. Given that
the GFS has made such an abrupt change from its solution just 24
hours ago, prefer to side with the slower GEM/ECMWF. As a result,
am focusing the greatest rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday
when likely PoPs for showers/thunder are warranted. Will linger
lower rain chances into Thursday night as the system departs,
followed by a return to dry weather for Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
Upper level low rotating around the broader trof as high pressure
at the surface continues to build into the region. Majority of the
clouds expected to break up after sunset for ILX terminals. Bigger
issue will be the potential for fog over DEC after some snow has
boosted llvl moisture. Have started a trend, but BUFKit soundings
with an adjusted xover temp are not that obvious with the fog
development. Starting the trend at low end MVFR, but will have to
keep an eye on the dry air working into the region.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...
306 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
FAIRLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WHILE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES BEGIN TUESDAY WITH A BIG WARMUP ACROSS
THE REGION FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AS IT
PASSES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN RACE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
IS NOTED STRETCHING FROM NEAR CMI NORTHWEST TO PIA THEN MLI. A FEW
SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA HOWEVER THOSE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE FOCUS
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BUILDING OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE TODAY...AND DEEP
MIXING CAPPED BY A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIP
FROM OCCURRING TODAY DESPITE SOME MODELS LIKE THE HRRR TRYING TO
BREAK OUT MODEST POPCORN CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S TODAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE FRONT
BUT IF ANYTHING THERE SEEMS POTENTIAL TO GO WARMER IF WE SEE MORE
SUNSHINE. KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO RIGHT AROUND 40
AGAIN IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT PROVIDING CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S. ON MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE THE GRADIENT TO REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...BUT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY
SHUNT ITS INLAND PROGRESS. THIS MAKES TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY FOR
THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE LAKE AS ITS UNSURE HOW MUCH PROGRESS
THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE. AREAS UNAFFECTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE ARE
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE...BUT
NEAR THE LAKE WILL ONLY CALL FOR MID 40S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
306 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BRINGING AT LEAST A DAY OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS A STABLE WAVE
TRANSLATES EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SERVE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO CAUSING A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA OR VERY NEARBY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG JET
IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CARVE OUT A
DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS IT DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW
LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
DISTANCE...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODELS. GFS
TRACKS THE LOW RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
HAS DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK
WHICH TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN THURSDAY. A LOT WILL HINGE ON
THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER VS MIXED PRECIP/SNOW...60S VS 30S FOR TEMPS. AT THIS
DISTANCE...MAINTAINED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO HONE IN FURTHER ON THE DETAILS AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK WITH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS DETAILS OF
WIND DIRECTION FOR ORD/MDW TODAY.
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREADING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN RESPONSE...WINDS
HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED TO NORTHERLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP...A LAKE BREEZE AND ONSHORE
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AS TEMPERATURES INLAND RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S UNDER COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NELY WINDS HAVE SET
UP AT ORD/MDW...WHILE WINDS REMAIN PREVAILING NLY AT RFD/DPA/GYY.
WITH DEEP MIXING...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 12-14KT RANGE WITH
OCNL HIGHER GUSTS TO 18-20KT UNTIL ARND SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT AND
PUSHES TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. AS
THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE TERMINALS...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH WINDS BACKING TO SWLY
BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
OTRW...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
200 AM CDT
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY...THEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY GALES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING SOUTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...ALLOWING A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. WEATHER FOR THE WESTERN LAKES WILL THEN
TURN MORE ACTIVE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...WITH A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST AND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL DEEPEN AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
25-30 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PASSES. AS THE
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MOST OF THE LAKE...AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE
30 KT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES
AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WINDS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE WILL
LIKELY BE WEAKER...IN THE REGION OF WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE LOW. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW...THOUGH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES DO APPEAR LIKELY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW SCOOTS BY TO THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
317 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
UPDATE THE FORECAST PRIMARILY FOR SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAKNESS RUNNING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. ALONG
THIS...NORTHWEST AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THIS WAY. CLOSER TO HOME...A FEW SPRINKLES OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER CLOUDS EAST OF JKL. ELSEWHERE...
THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP AND RETREATING EAST WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOUND TO THE WEST. THE CLEARING IS
HELPING TO DROP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF EXTRA DEGREES WITH UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE NORTHWEST OF JACKSON WHILE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S ARE NOTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ALSO VARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTH
AND FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH.
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WITH A SLEW OF ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY WILL
BRUSH THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND INTO MONDAY...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS SOME OF THE
MORE RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TO FOLLOW. GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COOL END TO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE WORST OF THE CHILL.
WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...A
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIP JUST EAST OF SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND LIKELY BRUSH THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. FOR
THIS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...BUT...DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATE WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW/TROUGH PASSING BY...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY HAVE ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WX GRIDS FOR
THIS. THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT BY EVENING AND SETS THE STAGE FOR
A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES A GOOD BET ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE WX GRIDS AND WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO AS OUR FROST FREEZE HEADLINE PROGRAM WILL
NOT START FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A SMALL
RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT SET UP AS THE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY...
DESPITE THE CHILLY START.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER. HAVE ADJUSTED
THESE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE SLIGHT TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE FOR TODAY...EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...POPS WERE
KEPT NEAR ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST BY TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND A DEVELOP
LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WINDS AND MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS AS HIGHS SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S ON
TUESDAY...AND NEAR 70 BY WEDNESDAY. THE WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WE
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
WESTERN US AND PUSH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS
ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM...SO RAIN CHANCES
HAVE CONTINUED TO GO UP WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THIS SYSTEM
IS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND WE SHOULD DRY OUT AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY
OVER EASTER WEEKEND...SETTING UP A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON THIS IDEA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT WILL PUSH EAST
FOLLOWING SUNRISE. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRAY
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO THREATEN THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT SME...FOR THIS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
...HIGH FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
GIVEN THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY
LOW AFTERNOON/EVENING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON TUESDAY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND HIGH
WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY AND VERY
CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH RIGHT NOW...BUT WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ONE IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THESE
CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO COME ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE GRADIENT RELAXING SOME FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW RH WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
FIRE WEATHER...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
204 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK RDG AXIS
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN GENERAL TROFFING IN ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW OVER
THE E HALF OF CANADA AND CLOSED LO OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN
POLAR BRANCH FLOW DOMINATING THE CONUS...ALL DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY
STRONG UPR RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. THERE IS A SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING
ACRS THE UPR LKS. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON LOCAL 00Z RAOBS...
PWAT AS LO AS 0.11 INCH AT APX /ABOUT 40 PCT OF NORMAL/...SKIES ARE
MOCLR. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BLO NORMAL AND INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AT THE COLDER INTERIOR SPOTS WITH LGT WINDS. A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IN CANADA IS DIGGING THRU NW
ONTARIO...BUT THE SHARPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS
ON TRACK TO STAY N OF UPR MI. THE WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP...BUT UPSTREAM OBS
SHOW LTL IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER. THERE ARE MORE CLDS AND SOME SCT
SN SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NW IN ONTARIO/MANITOBA AHEAD OF A SECOND
COLD FNT MOVING INTO THAT AREA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON PCPN/LES CHCS TNGT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND COLD FNT NOW DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA/
NW ONTARIO.
TODAY...SHRTWV IN NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO THE SE...WITH
FIRST COLD FNT CROSSING THE CWA THIS MRNG. SINCE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP
LYR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE N OF UPR MI...THERE WL NO MSTR INFLOW
TO MOISTEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...AND THERE
WL BE LTL IF ANY LLVL CNVGC ALONG THE FIRST COLD FROPA...SUSPECT THE
BULK OF THE MODELS SHOWING A DRY DAY ARE ON TRACK. WL RETAIN SOME
SCHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE LAND CWA THIS AFTN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF SOME DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AS
H85 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -11C BY 00Z SUN DESPITE FCST ACYC NATURE OF
THE H925 NW FLOW.
TNGT...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SECOND COLD
FNT REACHING THE NRN CWA ARND 06Z...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ARND
-14C BY 12Z MON OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. BUT SINCE LARGE SCALE
QVECTOR DVGC WL DOMINATE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV...FCST
H85 TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR LES AND THE TRAILING AIRMASS WL BE ON THE
DRY SIDE WITH MARGINAL LLVL CNVGC FCST...EXPECT NO MORE THAN CHC
POPS FOR THE FROPA AND LES IN ITS WAKE. SINCE THE BULK OF THE
COOLING WL IMPACT AREAS E OF MQT...WL CARRY THE HIER CHC POPS IN
THAT AREA. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SN EVEN IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MQT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CROSSING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL USHER IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A ROUND
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MAINLY THE NNW TO WNW WIND SNOW BELTS IN THE
MORNING. WAA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BACKING WINDS WILL
WILL QUICKLY END THE LES BY LATE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT
FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DUSTING ALONG MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SLOPING
LAYER OF FGEN BELOW 600 HPA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4
INCHES...IS EXPECTED OVER A 4 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES
SUPPORT A VERY WET SNOWFALL THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WET BULB TEMPS CREEP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ON
TUESDAY...SO A MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY A SWITCH OVER TO RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NE
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...CHIEFLY DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE INITIAL SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE GFS REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM PRODUCE A WEAKER SOLUTION AS
THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOWS SIGNS OF TRYING TO CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW. GIVEN DRY EASTERLY FLOW FROM ONTARIO...PRECIP MAY FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE CWA IF THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS PAN OUT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...PLACING UPPER MI ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND IN A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN WITH A BOUT OF
MIXED PRECIP FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH N-NW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND IT. DRY AIR AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL ONLY BRING SITES TO
BORDERLINE MVFR TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS...SO LEFT PRECIP AS VCSH.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS TO VEER TO THE N TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PAIR OF LO PRES TROUGHS. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON MON...THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. AS A WAVE OF LO PRES RIDES ALONG A FRONT TO THE S OF UPPER
MI ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHILE HI PRES BUILDS INTO NW ONTARIO...
WINDS OVER LAKE SUP WILL BECOME ENE UP TO 25 KTS. NE WINDS UP TO 25
TO 30 KTS WILL THEN BE THE RULE FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU UNDER A
RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN PERSISTENT HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND
A LO PRES MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
107 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
PCPN CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO MENTION DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TEMPS
WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW THAT DROPPED SEWD ACROSS IOWA SATURDAY
WAS OVER NERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO RECENT WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SNOW HAD
GENERALLY ENDED IN OUR AREA. WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME ISOLD FLURRIES THIS MORNING OR AN ISOLD SNOW SHOWER IN SWRN
IA THIS AFTN...BUT GENERALLY MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES TODAY SEEM
MINIMAL. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD EWD TODAY. NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER
15 MPH. THAT RIDGE WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH
WARMER DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST OR NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND MIXING
SHOULD NOT BE AS DEEP THERE. FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S NEAR THE SD BORDER AND UPPER 70S AT THE KS BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
THIS PERIOD IS MORE ACTIVE...WITH SEVERAL PCPN CHANCES. THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM WED INTO
THU MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NIGHT NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE
PROFILE INCREASE. 500 MB FLOW WILL BE DIFLUENT OVER OUR AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO CO. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS POINT TUE
NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT FCST SOUNDINGS. IN GENERAL... THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR WED. THE GFS IS
A BIT FASTER WITH THE 500 MB LOW AND HAS THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER
EAST BY 00Z THU. PATTERN SUGGEST SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE OVER
SERN NE AND SWRN IA WED...AND THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME ELEVATED
CAPE. BEYOND WED...WILL GIVE THE 00Z ECMWF THE MOST WEIGHT FOR
DETAILS OF THE FCST. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH BY LATE WED
AFTN FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NW 1/2 OF NERN NE. SNOW CHANCES
LOOK DECENT MOST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
PCPN SHOULD LINGER THU MORNING BUT END BY AFTN BASED ON CURRENT
MODEL TIMING. NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 21/18Z AT KOFK..KLNK...AND
KOMA. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR RETURN OF SOUTH SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WINO SHEAR IS FORECAST BETWEEN
11Z-17Z ACROSS KOFK...KLNK...AND KOMA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
429 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
WELL AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WHILE DOMINATING THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...LOW PRES EAST OF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE W. A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO NW. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW
TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN OBX EARLY. THE LOW STRATUS WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG CAA WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND
25 MPH INLAND AND UP TO 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. PATCHY FROST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE SW...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGH THU. MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AREAS OF PATCHY FROST WILL
BE LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...SW
FLOW...AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WED...AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR THU. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
40S/LOW 50S WED MORNING WARMING INTO THE 50S/LOW 60S. BREEZY S/SW
WINDS DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
MODELS DIFFERENCES CONTINUE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THEN POSSIBLE AREAS OF PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE SE COAST...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW EVEN SLOWER NOT MOVING THE
FRONT THROUGH UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND TOWARDS WPC AND ECMWF...DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI/FRI EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...CAPPING AT 40 PERCENT RIGHT NOW...GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE SC THUNDER
MENTION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
POSSIBLE IF SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE VERIFIES.
ECMWF KEEPS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO THE NORTH LATE SAT
AND SUN...WHILE THE GFS IS DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT...MOVING IT UP THE
SE COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...AND
WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POP SAT INTO SUN. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...IN THE 60S...FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW LEVEL NE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUN...LOW PRES OFFSHORE BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW AND A
STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
RTES WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS PRED IFR
ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT MAINLY IFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE SUCH AS NARRE, HRRR AND SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS
COULD LIFT SLIGHTLY TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH
MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS IFR/LIFR. IF CIGS DO LIFT THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 1500FT. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MON
MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT MVFR BETWEEN 10-12Z WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND VFR RETURNING AROUND 14-16Z. GUSTY NWLY WINDS AROUND
20-25 KT COULD BRING CROSS WIND ISSUES AT EWN RUNWAY 4R/22L.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. GUSTY S/SW WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON WED THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
TERMINALS FRI...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. BRIEF PATCHY/FOG STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
THROUGH THU WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...N WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY, BECOMING NW AROUND 10-20 KT THIS EVENING.
WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK TO 15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHICH CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 6-8 FT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS 2-4 FT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUN...GUSTY NW WINDS 15-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT WILL
START OFF THE PERIOD MON NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD. HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE TUE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ANCHORED
OFF THE SE COAST THROUGH THU...WITH S/SW FLOW RETURNING. GUSTY SW
WINDS 15-25KT ARE LIKELY TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...STRONGEST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH BETTER MIXING OVER THE WARM WATER AND
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS HAVE SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-6FT TUE NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL
WATERS WITH PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. GUSTY SW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMING N/NE BEHIND IT.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH
THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT
THROUGH THE WATERS FRI MORNING...AND THE ECMWF NOT UNTIL LATE FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND BEHIND IT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-
158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...SK/CQD
MARINE...SK/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
222 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WHILE DOMINATING THE
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 2PM SUNDAY...LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. BAND OF
SHRA LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD TO MAINLY THE
OBX SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFFSHORE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SOME SPOTTY
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
MAXING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM SUN...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE CST. THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT MOISTURE
IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. CONT CAA ON BACKSIDE
OF LOW WILL KEEP TEMPS COLD WITH LOWS 35 TO 40 INLAND AND 40 TO 45
CST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE GULF COAST REGION EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PIVOT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT USHERING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
PATTERN...EXPECT FAIRLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT IS COMING INTO BETTER FOCUS AS THE MODELS ARE ILLUSTRATING A
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROPA. WHILE THE TIMING WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THE DYNAMICS SEEM TO BE WANING BY THIS
POINT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEBRIS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...INHIBITING INSULATION. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
THE SCHC THUNDER IN FOR NOW. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY
LATE AFTERNOON. AND AT THIS POINT THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE. THE
GFS HAS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY DRAPED OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE GULF COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
RIDING THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY NORTH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO
THE NORTH NOSING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE A MESSY WEEKEND AHEAD. WHILE IN CONTRAST...THE EURO
ILLUSTRATING THE FRONT CLEARING THE AREA AND MOVING WELL OFFSHORE
WITH LOW PRESSURE NOT APPROACHING EASTERN NC BY UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN SUCH MODEL TIMING DISCREPANCIES...HAVE A BLANKETED
SCHC POP ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS HARD TO SAY WHICH MODEL SOLUTION
LOOKS MORE LIKELY...EVEN WHEN DISSECTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. BUT
WITH SUCH QUICK LOW DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN IN THE GFS...SIDING WITH
THE EURO SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER BET AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO MONDAY (MID 50S) AND SLIGHT
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK (UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY) AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A FRONT. LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN WARM TEMPS AS OF LATE AND THUS
EARLY BLOOMING SEASON...HAVE A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY AND CROSSES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THIS MAY MAKE FOR A NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE TYPE OF DAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS A BIT FAR OUT TO TIME THE CAA AT THIS POINT...SO
HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TRENDING PURPOSES (LOW
70S). THE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE WEATHER PATTERN. AS WE LEARN MORE TOWARD THE
EURO SOLUTION...EXPECT COOLER HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SUN...LOW PRES OFFSHORE BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW AND A
STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
RTES WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS PRED IFR
ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT MAINLY IFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE SUCH AS NARRE, HRRR AND SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CIGS COULD LIFT SLIGHTLY TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALTHOUGH MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS IFR/LIFR. IF CIGS DO LIFT THEY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1500FT. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND MON MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT MVFR BETWEEN 10-12Z
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VFR RETURNING AROUND 14-16Z. GUSTY NWLY
WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT COULD BRING CROSS WIND ISSUES AT EWN RUNWAY
4R/22L.
LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL. ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO SATURATE A BIT MORE THURSDAY
UNDER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THUS...POSSIBLY FOG OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THROUGH THE
DAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND A FRONT TO THE WEST...WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
COULD BECOME FAIRLY GUSTY BOTH WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SUN...WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO DIMINISH SOME
ACROSS THE SOUNDS BUT WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT.
SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 6-9 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 2-5 FT SOUTH.
N WINDS WILL CONT AT MAINLY 15 TO 20 KTS THIS EVENING THEN AS
SHRT WAVE REACHES CLOSE LATE EXPECT SURGE OF NW WINDS TO DEVELOP
WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 25 KTS LATE. SEAS WILL STAY ELEVATED OVER CNTRL
AND ESPCLY NRN WTRS THRU TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE.
OVER SRN WTRS COULD GET CLOSER TO 6 FT FAR OUTER WTRS TOWARD MON
MORN AS NW WINDS INCREASE.
LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SUBSIDING.
WINDS 20-25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY NIGHT...SO TOO WILL THE WINDS AS THEY
FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THE SEAS WILL ALSO RESPOND BY DIMINISHING
BELOW 6 FT BY EARLY TUESDAY. PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL BUILD...BUT HAVE CAPPED IT TO 3 TO 5 FEET
ACROSS THE WATERS...6 FOOTERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS POSSIBLY BY
LATER THURSDAY AS WINDS GUSTY ABOVE 20KTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
131-135-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/SK
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...RF/LEP
MARINE...RF/SK/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
1035 AM PDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.SHORT TERM...A FRONT IS MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. EXPECT RAIN OVER MOST THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH TODAY AROUND 7000 FEET LOWERING TO 5500 TO 6500 FT THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY, IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA, AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST NAM
AND HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS, HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH TO INCLUDE EASTERN
DOUGLAS, JACKSON, PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES AND FROM CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BASED
ON WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TODAY ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, THIS EVENING EXPECT DECREASING SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AROUND 4-4500 FT WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 4500-5000 FT EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
SPREADING INTO COAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY
WEATHER. ADDITIONAL GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS ON MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND 4500 TO 5500 FEET MONDAY AND EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE HIGHER PASSES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION INLAND TODAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
BEING OBSERVED NOW...BUT OCCASIONAL LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VIS TO THE COAST THIS MORNING. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR
TURBULENCE ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY AT
THE COAST...EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER HIGH TERRAIN.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS AND WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY THIS
EVENING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOWERING
CEILINGS TO THE COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN INLAND...WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SK
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 315 AM PDT SUN 20 MAR 2016...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BRING GALES AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF GALES WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY A WEST SWELL AND REACH A PEAK ON
MONDAY NIGHT THEN REMAIN HIGH INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WITH MODERATE SEAS WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS BECOMING HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH SEAS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH INTO
SATURDAY. -DW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM PDT SUN MAR 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE COAST THIS MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND INTO
THE ROGUE VALLEY MID MORNING. MODELS INDICATE WINDS AT 925 MB
TURNS SW INTO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP INCREASE
COASTAL WINDS. AREAS NEAR CAPE BLANCO COULD SEE WIND GUST TO NEAR
50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE SHASTA VALLEY AND PARTS OF
THE EAST SIDE WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS. HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT
SUITE OF WIND ADVISORIES GOING.
ASIDE FROM MT SHASTA AND SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY..PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AROUND 4-4500 FT WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 4500-5000 FT EAST. THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY.
THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO MOUNTAIN SNOW AS
THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET IN THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS. WE ARE CURRENT FORECASTING AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW
AT CRATER LAKE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW
ON MOUNT SHASTA ABOVE 6500 FEET. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FEET. ANOTHER 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
CC/CC/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
630 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE 500 HPA TROUGH AND POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO
OUR EAST MONDAY AS THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE
UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. MOST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW MOVING OVER THE REGION...ALOFT. WE
HAVE SEEN SEVERAL SURGES OF LIGHT SNOW GO UP THE VALLEY LOCALLY
AND LOTS OF VIRGA STRIATIONS.
TRIED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 IN
SOUTHEAST. HARD TO DO WITH OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA IN A GRID.
SOME BAD DATA POINTS ABOUND. SUFFICE TO SAY WILL BE AN ABNORMALLY
COLD DAY AND EARLY EVENING.
FEWER CLOUDS AND LOWER CHANCE FLURRIES IN NORTH AND BEST CHANCE OF
A DUSTING TO SLIGHT ACCUMULATION IS IN SW MOUNTAINS.
THE SNOW WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MOST GUIDANCE IMPLIES BEST CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IS EARLY
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE TWO WETTEST 3H PERIODS IN
THE SREF ARE 21 TO 00 THIS EVENING AND 00 TO 03 UTC. SO BY
MIDNIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DROPS FAST. AFTER 12Z ABOUT 10 PERCENT OF
SREF MEMBERS SHOW ANY CHANCE OF QPF IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST PA.
THE HRRR STILL WANTS TO MAKE BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IN SW MOUNTAINS
IN THE 00 TO 06 UTC TIME FRAME. SO USED LARGER SCALE MODEL BLEND
FOR POPS AND TEMPERED IT BY BLENDING IN THE 3KM HRRR TO SHOW SNOW
POTENTIAL IN SW MOUNTAINS. PUT THIS IN KJST TAF (SEE
AVIATION BELOW). NOTHING OF NOTE UNLESS YOU LIKE SNOWFLAKES.
SO...EARLY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN SW MOUNTAINS AND ALONG MD
BORDER. AND RAIN/SNOW IN SE WILL TURN TO WET SNOW AROUND/AFTER
SUNSET. DEW POINTS ARE LOW SO ANY MIXED SHOULD GO TO SNOW FAST IF
IT CONTINUES. AFTER SUNSET COLD WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM.
THE 500 HPA WAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST EARLY MONDAY...MONDAY SHOULD BE
A SUNNIER DAY BUT STILL ON THE COLD SIDE. THE 850 HPA TEMPS SHOW
COLD ADVECTION EARLY MONDAY AND THEY BOTTOM OUT -8 TO -10C LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SO A CHILLY DAY FOR LATE FOR
FIRST FULL DAY OF SPRING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS IN RECENT CASES...A STRONG SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DID CUT BACK SOME ON THE SHOWERS FOR WED INTO EARLY THU. WHILE
A COLD FRONT COULD SAG SOUTHWARD INTO N PA...AND THERE IS AN
INTENSE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 850 MB JUST TO THE NORTH OF
PA...THINK SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
LIMITED ON WED INTO EARLY THU.
LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT STILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI.
CENTRAL PA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE COLD AIR FOR THE EASTER
WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW BANDS ARE STREAMING THROUGH CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT LITTLE TO NO RESTRICTIONS. MOST AREAS ARE VFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.
SOME SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COULD LOWER VSBY TO MVFR IN
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. BUT VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS FROM
KUNV SOUTH TOWARD KLNS WHERE SNOW BANDS COULD LINGER THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER 06Z...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO OUR EAST AND CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE. WINDS COME AROUND TO MORE
WESTERLY ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR EXCEPT AM SNOW SHOWERS ISOLD MVFR MAINLY SW MOUNTAINS.
TUE-WED...VFR.
THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH
AND WEST.
FRI...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GRUMM/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE 500 HPA TROUGH AND POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO
OUR EAST MONDAY AS THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE
UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. MOST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW MOVING OVER THE REGION...ALOFT. WE
HAVE SEEN SEVERAL SURGES OF LIGHT SNOW GO UP THE VALLEY LOCALLY
AND LOTS OF VIRGA STRIATIONS.
TRIED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 IN
SOUTHEAST. HARD TO DO WITH OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA IN A GRID.
SOME BAD DATA POINTS ABOUND. SUFFICE TO SAY WILL BE AN ABNORMALLY
COLD DAY AND EARLY EVENING.
FEWER CLOUDS AND LOWER CHANCE FLURRIES IN NORTH AND BEST CHANCE OF
A DUSTING TO SLIGHT ACCUMULATION IS IN SW MOUNTAINS.
THE SNOW WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MOST GUIDANCE IMPLIES BEST CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IS EARLY
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE TWO WETTEST 3H PERIODS IN
THE SREF ARE 21 TO 00 THIS EVENING AND 00 TO 03 UTC. SO BY
MIDNIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DROPS FAST. AFTER 12Z ABOUT 10 PERCENT OF
SREF MEMBERS SHOW ANY CHANCE OF QPF IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST PA.
THE HRRR STILL WANTS TO MAKE BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IN SW MOUNTAINS
IN THE 00 TO 06 UTC TIME FRAME. SO USED LARGER SCALE MODEL BLEND
FOR POPS AND TESTURED IT BY BLENDING IN THE 3KM HRRR TO SHOW SNOW
POTENTIAL IN SW MOUNTAINS. PUT THIS IN KJST TAF (SEE AVIATIONBELOW).
NOTHING OF NOTE UNLESS YOU LIKE SNOWFLAKES.
SO...EARLY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN SW MOUNTAINS AND ALONG MD
BORDER. AND RAIN/SNOW IN SE WILL TURN TO WET SNOW AROUND/AFTER
SUNSET. DEW POINTS ARE LOW SO ANY MIXED SHOULD GO TO SNOW FAST IF
IT CONTINUES. AFTER SUNSET COLD WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM.
THE 500 HPA WAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST EARLY MONDAY...MONDAY SHOULD BE
A SUNNIER DAY BUT STILL ON THE COLD SIDE. THE 850 HPA TEMPS SHOW
COLD ADVECTION EARLY MONDAY AND THEY BOTTOM OUT -8 TO -10C LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SO A CHILLY DAY FOR LATE FOR
FIRST FULL DAY OF SPRING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS IN RECENT CASES...A STRONG SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DID CUT BACK SOME ON THE SHOWERS FOR WED INTO EARLY THU. WHILE
A COLD FRONT COULD SAG SOUTHWARD INTO N PA...AND THERE IS AN
INTENSE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 850 MB JUST TO THE NORTH OF
PA...THINK SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
LIMITED ON WED INTO EARLY THU.
LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT STILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI.
CENTRAL PA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE COLD AIR FOR THE EASTER
WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUE MOVE THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE SNOW IS OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE DESPITE THE APPEARANCE OF RADAR. MOST AREAS ARE VFR
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.
SOME SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COULD LOWER VSBY TO MVFR IN
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. BUT VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS FROM
KUNV SOUTH TOWARD KLNS WHERE MODELS HINTED IT COULD SNOW BRIEFLY.
OVERNIGHT AS LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
EVERYWHERE. WINDS COME AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR EXCEPT AM SNOW SHOWERS ISOLD MVFR MAINLY SW MOUNTAINS.
TUE-WED...VFR.
THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH
AND WEST.
FRI...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GRUMM/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
203 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE 500 HPA TROUGH AND POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO
OUR EAST MONDAY AS THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE
UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. MOST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW MOVING OVER THE REGION...ALOFT. WE
HAVE SEEN SEVERAL SURGES OF LIGHT SNOW GO UP THE VALLEY LOCALLY
AND LOTS OF VIRGA STRIATIONS.
TRIED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 IN
SOUTHEAST. HARD TO DO WITH OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA IN A GRID.
SOME BAD DATA POINTS ABOUND. SUFFICE TO SAY WILL BE AN ABNORMALLY
COLD DAY AND EARLY EVENING.
FEWER CLOUDS AND LOWER CHANCE FLURRIES IN NORTH AND BEST CHANCE OF
A DUSTING TO SLIGHT ACCUMULATION IS IN SW MOUNTAINS.
THE SNOW WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MOST GUIDANCE IMPLIES BEST CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IS EARLY
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE TWO WETTEST 3H PERIODS IN
THE SREF ARE 21 TO 00 THIS EVENING AND 00 TO 03 UTC. SO BY
MIDNIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DROPS FAST. AFTER 12Z ABOUT 10 PERCENT OF
SREF MEMBERS SHOW ANY CHANCE OF QPF IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST PA.
THE HRRR STILL WANTS TO MAKE BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IN SW MOUNTAINS
IN THE 00 TO 06 UTC TIME FRAME. SO USED LARGER SCALE MODEL BLEND
FOR POPS AND TESTURED IT BY BLENDING IN THE 3KM HRRR TO SHOW SNOW
POTENTIAL IN SW MOUNTAINS. PUT THIS IN KJST TAF (SEE AVIATIONBELOW).
NOTHING OF NOTE UNLESS YOU LIKE SNOWFLAKES.
SO...EARLY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN SW MOUNTAINS AND ALONG MD
BORDER. AND RAIN/SNOW IN SE WILL TURN TO WET SNOW AROUND/AFTER
SUNSET. DEW POINTS ARE LOW SO ANY MIXED SHOULD GO TO SNOW FAST IF
IT CONTINUES. AFTER SUNSET COLD WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM.
THE 500 HPA WAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST EARLY MONDAY...MONDAY SHOULD BE
A SUNNIER DAY BUT STILL ON THE COLD SIDE. THE 850 HPA TEMPS SHOW
COLD ADVECTION EARLY MONDAY AND THEY BOTTOM OUT -8 TO -10C LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SO A CHILLY DAY FOR LATE FOR
FIRST FULL DAY OF SPRING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RISING HEIGHTS AND A SW TO WEST FLOW OF MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WORK
INTO THE AREA AFTER MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PLACEMENT OF
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF W ATLANTIC RIDGE.
00Z ECENS/NAEFS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF PA WED-THU
WITH THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE N TIER COUNTIES. BEST CHC
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS LIKELY TO COME FRIDAY...AS
E COAST RIDGE WEAKENS AND SIG SHORTWAVE WORKS EAST THRU THE GRT
LKS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS OF THE STATE AND AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE
MOVE THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE SNOW IS OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
DESPITE THE APPEARANCE OF RADAR. MOST AREAS ARE VFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.
SOME SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COULD LOWER VSBY TO MVFR IN
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. BUT VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS FROM
KUNV SOUTH TOWARD KLNS WHERE MODELS HINTED IT COULD SNOW BRIEFLY.
OVERNIGHT AS LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
EVERYWHERE. WINDS COME AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR EXCEPT AM SNOW SHOWERS ISOLD MVFR MAINLY SW MOUNTAINS.
TUE- WED...VFR. THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
233 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
UPPER LOW OVER WEST TN WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA NOW...WITH SOME REPORTS OF HAIL/GRAUPEL AND SOME SNOW IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU. THE NAM AND RAP FOCUS LIFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE SMOKIES. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVEL HOVERING AROUND 2000 FT DURING THIS TIME...SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE THAT LEVEL. THE NAM AND GFS
APPEAR OVERDONE WITH SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE PLATEAU AND VALLEY...WHERE
CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. BUT THE MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE 1-3 INCHES...WITH MORE POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED.
LATER TONIGHT...CLEARING WILL COME BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO
LOWER 30S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE AREAS COVERED BY THE FREEZE WATCH
WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING...ALTHOUGH THE CHATTANOOGA METRO AREA
WILL BE BORDERLINE. IN THE MOUNTAINS...SOME ICY SPOTS ON ROADS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S...AND WILL MENTION
THIS IN THE NPW.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
COLD SPRING TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER FREEZE IS LOOKING LIKELY MAINLY NORTH OF I-40...IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NC. IF YOU HAVE SENSITIVE
VEGETATION TAKING PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT IT WOULD PROBABLY BE WISE.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOWER RH/S AND A BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
MAY CAUSE CONCERN FOR WILDLAND FIRE AGENCIES. HIGHER RH/S EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUICIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY BACK INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO MIDDLE TN THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS MODEL WAS MUCH LATER ARRIVING
THAN USUAL BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT REMAINS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF BY
ABOUT 12 HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR THE SECOND HALF OF
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE FORECAST AREA
DRY BY MID-DAY FRIDAY.
EARLIER MODELS WERE HINTING AT A DRY FRIDAY...RETURNING TO WET
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS
INDICATES THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE DELAYED AS MUCH AS 24
HOURS...HOLDING OFF UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND MODEL
ALSO WAS HINTING AT THE DELAY AS WELL. OBVIOUSLY THIS IS STILL A
LONG WAYS OUT AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 56 35 66 / 30 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 52 34 63 / 60 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 32 52 33 63 / 40 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 28 49 30 61 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CHEROKEE-
CLAY.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/
MONDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-
CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-
HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON
TN-WEST POLK.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
WASHINGTON.
&&
$$
DGS/AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
355 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY...THEN PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
12Z GFS MODEL RAN 2 HOURS LATE BUT WITHOUT UPPER AIR OR AIRCRAFT
DATA.
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING HAS BEEN HEAVILY WEIGHTED TO THE
HRRR...THEN USED THE NAM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FOR THE DAY MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TENNESSEE IS MOVING EAST AND WILL CROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WAS FALLING PRIMARILY AS RAIN...HOWEVER WHEN IT
ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER AIR OVER THE MTNS OF TN/NC...THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN AN AXIS FROM MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE VA SOUTH INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NC. THE HRRR EXPANDS THIS
AREA OF PRECIP TO ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 23Z/7PM...THEN MOVES IT EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF
THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND 04Z MIDNIGHT. AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF QPF IS FORECAST...AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO ABOUT AN INCH
OF SNOW FOR OUR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN VA AND INTO THE
NW NC HIGH COUNTRY...AND POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ON BEECH MTN.
ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE A STRETCH TO GET THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATION. THE PTYPE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN OVER
THE PIEDMONT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FOOTHILLS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME
TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS INCREASING
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP WITH MODEST PRESSURE RISES OVER THE NC
MTNS. A 35 TO 40 KT 8H NORTHWESTERLY JET IS PROGGED BY 12Z MONDAY
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWERING INVERSION AND SOME CLEARING WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NC MTNS
INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE VA BLUE RIDGE
FROM FANCY GAP TO ROANOKE. WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. ONCE
THE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND
THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THEN LOOK FOR THEM TO DIP
BELOW FREEZING. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NC
FOOTHILLS. THE GROWING SEASON PER COLLABORATION WITH AGRICULTURAL
EXTENSION AGENTS HAS ALSO STARTED IN SMYTH AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES
IN VIRGINIA THANKS TO THE WARMER TEMPS THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
PER COORDINATION WITH WFO GSP AND MRX THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE
IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 10AM MONDAY.
FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST
RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE GULF COAST.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL...BUT AT LEAST 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
THE 12Z GFS WAS ABOUT TWO HOURS LATE TODAY DUE TO TECHNICAL
DIFFICULTIES. FORTUNATELY...IT PAINTS THE SAME STORY AS THE 12Z NAM
AND THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER
THE GULF COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...THAT WILL SEND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN FLATTENS AND TURNS ZONAL BY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL
BRING THE MID ATLANTIC A SOUTHWEST FLOW. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH HIGHS TOWARD THE 50S AND 60S.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG EASTWARD
FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DOWNSTREAM
RESPONSE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING RIDGING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC. THUS...THE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SEND HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ORGANIZE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND HEAD EAST OF THE PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS MAY BE NOTICED WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE OF ANY
RAIN ARRIVES LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE IN THE MODELS. THE GFS
PUSHES THE MOISTURE INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND HAS THE
FRONT EXITING ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING
THE MOISTURE INTO THE CWA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...AND HAS THE FRONT
EXITING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
HELD THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE RAMPING IT UP ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE TIMING OFF THE ECMWF WOULD MAKE IT COMPLETELY UNFAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION...THE GFS ALLOWS A SMALL WINDOW FOR CONVECTION TO THE
WEST BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FURTHER LOOK AT THE CAPE VALUES
INDICATES HARDLY ANY INSTABILITY PRESENT IN THE GFS...SO NO THUNDER
WAS INSERTED THROUGHOUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY COULD LIKELY END UP 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE HIGHS FROM THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS PUSHES A NEW LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE CWA. DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT CHANCES OF RAIN
COULD RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
ALL TAF SITES WILL BE STUCK IN LOW END MVFR TO LIFR AT TIMES
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THIS EVENING. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH
WORSE TO OUR SOUTH WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR
THE MOUNTAINS OF NC INTO EASTERN TN AND NORTHERN GA.
THINGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNING MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE HIGH IN LOW END MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS
ARRIVING BY LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT IN THE MTNS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
VAZ009.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NCZ003-019-020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
250 PM PDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cool, wet and breezy weather pattern will return to the Inland
Northwest this week. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on
Monday with the arrival of a cold front. On Tuesday, the mountains
of the central and southern Idaho Panhandle will have a good
chance of receiving heavy and wet snow. A brief break in the
active pattern on Wednesday will be followed by wet and locally
windy conditions Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Clouds continue to thicken and lower ahead of the
incoming wet frontal system that will spread rain (with snow for
the very higher mountain locations above five to six thousand feet
above mean sea level) from southwest to northeast tonight over
Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho. The HRRR runs of the past
few hours have a fairly good depiction of the scenario with
rainfall expected in the Spokane area between 4 and 5 pm PDT. As
to be expected with the good warm south and southwest trajectories
of flow through the frontal zone forecast temperatures overnight
tonight will remain on the warm side of climo. /Pelatti
Monday: The moist frontal system that is expected to move through
tonight will cause temperatures to be a handful of degrees cooler
on Monday. It looks like afternoon highs will be in the 50s for
most of the Inland Northwest. The cooling aloft behind tonight`s
front will be more significant. Steepening mid-level lapse rates
on Monday combined with an approaching upper trough will create an
environment favorable for the formation of spring-time showers.
The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are forecasting enough deep layer
instability for widely scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon
and evening. At this time, it looks like the most concentrated
thunderstorm activity will be over central and northeast Oregon
Monday afternoon where 500mb cooling will be the most pronounced
under the incoming upper trough, but it is hard to rule out the
possibility of thunderstorms over much of Washington and north
Idaho. Small hail, brief heavy rain, and cloud to ground lightning
will be the primary hazards Monday afternoon and early evening.
Monday night and Tuesday: Our attention Monday night into Tuesday
will turn to falling snow levels and the potential for a locally
heavy band of precipitation over the Camas Prairie, central Idaho
Panhandle, and possibly the Palouse. There is decent agreement
between the GFS, ECMWF and NAM that an inch or more of liquid
equivalent could fall within a deformation band late Monday night
into Tuesday evening. Snow levels will be very tricky, and we
could see them drop as low as 2500 feet over the Clearwaters,
Palouse and southern Shoshone county. A Winter Weather Advisory or
Winter Storm Warning may be necessary. At this time, 8 to 12
inches looks like a good bet for elevations above 3500 feet in
southern Shoshone county, and these amounts could occur at lower
elevations depending on the behavior and orientation of the
deformation band. Late season snow accumulations could even be
possible in places like Moscow, Pullman, St Maries, Winchester,
Deary, and Clarkia. If precipitation falls in the form of rain, we
will likely see rises on rivers and streams like Paradise Creek in
Moscow, the Palouse River, and Hangman Creek.
Wednesday and Thursday: Our region should be in between systems on
Wednesday as on system pulls out of the Idaho Panhandle during the
morning before the next more progressive frontal system arrives
Wednesday night. The frontal system Wednesday night will be
accompanied with stronger mid-level westerly flow. Look for a
pronounced "rain shadow" Wednesday night into Thursday morning
with the Columbia Basin receiving little measurable precipitation
while the mountains get much more. Snow levels look to be around
4000 feet Wednesday night into Thursday morning so Lookout Pass
and Stevens Pass will have the best shot of being impacted by
significant accumulations. Behind our fast moving front, Thursday
looks to be breezy over the Palouse, West Plains, and Upper
Columbia Basin. /GKoch
Thursday night through Sunday...There is good model agreement of an
upper trough dropping into the region from the northwest Thursday
night into Friday. This will result in a chance of showers in the
valleys with snow showers likely in the mountains. Wet snow may
mix in as low as 2000 to 2500 feet Friday morning. Northwest flow
will favor the best chances for accumulating snow in the Cascade
mountains...Blue Mountains...Camas Prairie...and Central Panhandle
Mountains. With the higher late March sun angle travel impacts in
the mountains should be confined to mainly overnight Thursday
night and early Friday except under the heavier snow showers. A
short wave ridge moves over the area on Saturday for drier
conditions. The ECMWF and GEM hold on to the ridge into Sunday
while the GFS is quicker to bring in another system. Right now the
forecast leans towards dry conditions for Sunday as well. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Clouds continue to thicken and lower as they invade the
sky from the south and west ahead of the next incoming wet frontal
system. Precipitation in the form of rain for starting as early as
20Z for the far western locations near KEAT and points to the west
but for KPUW up to KGEG and east it will be slower to start with
rain starting between 1-3Z Monday and continuing on through much
of the night and bringing on MVFR conditions due to the lower
ceilings associated with the rain. Back edge of the wet front
exits from west to east allowing rain to stop as early as 7Z
Monday for KEAT vicinity to as late as 14-16Z for KGEG and KCOE.
/Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 41 54 37 47 34 50 / 90 30 80 70 30 10
Coeur d`Alene 41 54 36 47 34 49 / 90 40 80 80 30 10
Pullman 42 54 38 43 35 49 / 90 40 100 80 40 10
Lewiston 44 58 41 47 38 55 / 90 50 90 80 40 10
Colville 37 57 35 50 33 53 / 80 30 40 30 20 10
Sandpoint 39 52 35 46 34 48 / 90 40 60 60 40 20
Kellogg 39 49 35 42 31 45 / 90 50 100 90 50 30
Moses Lake 42 61 39 53 35 56 / 70 20 80 50 10 10
Wenatchee 40 57 39 52 37 54 / 50 30 70 20 10 10
Omak 37 57 37 54 34 56 / 60 20 60 30 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
549 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO AND APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND IS GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WI THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE CU FIELD HAS NOT BEEN AS
ROBUST FARTHER SOUTH...AND THINK SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND SKY TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SHORT-TERM.
TONIGHT...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...THE HIGHER RES MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A SMALL CHANCE REMAINS THAT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO FAR N-C WISCONSIN AND THE NORTHERN TIP
OF THE DOOR. ELSEWHERE...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO BE PRESENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...CLOUDS THAT BUILD THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE NORTH...EVEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SOME BREAKS WILL
INEVITABLY OCCUR THOUGH. EXCEPT FOR THE DOOR PENINSULA...PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ONCE THE CU
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SINCE WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS AROUND...LOW
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH.
MONDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
MORNING. THOUGH DIURNAL BUILD UP OF CU SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS TODAY...WILL HAVE AMPLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR A PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. HIGHS AROUND
40 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
HIGHLIGHT OF THIS PERIOD TOWARD MID WEEK AS PROGS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO PASS OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION INCLUDING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
BUT FIRST...FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT LIFTING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED WITH A UPPER 100 KT
JETLET LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA. FORECAST TEMPS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW FOR FAR
NORTHEAST THEN TRENDING TO LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION APPEARS STILL ON TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS
SEPARATING THE COLD AIR MASS TO THE NORTH WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH
THE REGION OF HEAVY SNOW STARTING MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL THE
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
WHILE CONFIDENCE OF A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS INCREASING FOR THE
REGION DUE TO A COLDER TREND...CONFIDENCE OF THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVY SNOW BAND REMAINS LOW. OVERVIEW OF THE LATEST PROGS...THE
GFS PAINTS THE HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS WELL SOUTH. THE CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BUT
INCLUDES HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
ALL PROGS DEVELOP A VERY INTENSE FGEN BAND OF SNOW WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SURFACE AND H850 LOW TRACK OVER
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE BLUSTERY
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINTER
RETURNS TO THE AREA.
QUIET WEATHER BUT COOL REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER.
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS SUGGESTS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT DROPS OVER
THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CLD DECK TO
DEVELOP AND DROP SWD INTO NRN WI IN THE WAKE OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV
EXITING THE ERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. QUITE A FEW CLDS ACRS THE
UPPER PENINSULA RIGHT NOW...BUT THEY ARE SOMEWHAT CELLULAR LOOKING
AND MAY TEND TO DIMINISH AFTER DUSK. ADDITIONAL CLDS COULD FORM
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TNGT. MID-LVL HEIGHTS EDGE DOWN UNTIL ABOUT
10Z...THEN BEGIN TO REBOUND. AIR TEMPERATURE/LAKE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR CLDS. WL STICK
CLOSE TO THE PREV FCST FOR N-C WI FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO PULL
BACK SOME ON THE CLDS IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE IF ADDITIONAL CLD
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT APPARENT BY LATE EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO AND APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND IS GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WI THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE CU FIELD HAS NOT BEEN AS
ROBUST FARTHER SOUTH...AND THINK SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND SKY TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SHORT-TERM.
TONIGHT...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...THE HIGHER RES MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A SMALL CHANCE REMAINS THAT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO FAR N-C WISCONSIN AND THE NORTHERN TIP
OF THE DOOR. ELSEWHERE...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO BE PRESENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...CLOUDS THAT BUILD THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE NORTH...EVEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SOME BREAKS WILL
INEVITABLY OCCUR THOUGH. EXCEPT FOR THE DOOR PENINSULA...PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ONCE THE CU
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SINCE WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS AROUND...LOW
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH.
MONDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
MORNING. THOUGH DIURNAL BUILD UP OF CU SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS TODAY...WILL HAVE AMPLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR A PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. HIGHS AROUND
40 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
HIGHLIGHT OF THIS PERIOD TOWARD MID WEEK AS PROGS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO PASS OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION INCLUDING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
BUT FIRST...FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT LIFTING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED WITH A UPPER 100 KT
JETLET LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA. FORECAST TEMPS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW FOR FAR
NORTHEAST THEN TRENDING TO LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION APPEARS STILL ON TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS
SEPARATING THE COLD AIR MASS TO THE NORTH WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH
THE REGION OF HEAVY SNOW STARTING MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL THE
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
WHILE CONFIDENCE OF A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS INCREASING FOR THE
REGION DUE TO A COLDER TREND...CONFIDENCE OF THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVY SNOW BAND REMAINS LOW. OVERVIEW OF THE LATEST PROGS...THE
GFS PAINTS THE HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS WELL SOUTH. THE CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BUT
INCLUDES HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
ALL PROGS DEVELOP A VERY INTENSE FGEN BAND OF SNOW WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SURFACE AND H850 LOW TRACK OVER
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE BLUSTERY
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINTER
RETURNS TO THE AREA.
QUIET WEATHER BUT COOL REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER.
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS SUGGESTS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT DROPS OVER
THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH TO CREATE SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW END VFR
OR HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND
NORTH-CENTRAL WI INTO MONDAY MORNING DUE NORTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
MORNING WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS BUILDING AGAIN BY MIDDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC