Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/20/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1143 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 901 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016 BAND OF SNOW IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PUEBLO AREA...WHILE SNOW UPSTREAM HAS LIGHTENED UP CONSIDERABLY AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING EASTWARD. REVISED POP GRIDS TO CAPTURE THE BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES. AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES WITH THIS BAND. HRRR SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH KEEPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES. -KT && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016 ...WINTER RETURNS FOR A DAY FOR PARTS OF THE PLAINS... CURRENTLY... AT 3 AM...EAST-WEST BAND OF SNOW...MDT IN INTENSITY PER RADAR...WERE LOCATED ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY. LIGHTER SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS THE REST OF EL PASO COUNTY...AND SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED INTO N PUEBLO COUNTY AS VERY LIGHT SNOW WAS NOTED OUTSIDE THE WX OFFICE HERE IN PUEBLO. SNOW ALSO NOTED IN TELLER COUNTY PER RADAR AND WEBCAMS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS...A LOW OVC DECK WAS NOTED. INTERIOR MTNS AND VALLEYS FOR THE MOST PART WERE DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS LIKELY SOME SNOW FALLING AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OVER THE C MTNS PER RADAR. A 2NDRY COLD FRONT WAS APPARENT IN THE RADAR DATA AND IT EXTENDED FROM DEN TO LIC AND THEN INTO KIOWA COUNTY. IT WAS DROPPING SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. TODAY... MOST SNOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE WILL FALL ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. TOWARDS SUNRISE EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...AND THE SNOW IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY START TO DROP SOUTH AS THE 2NDRY FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE S MTNS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WILL BE DURING THE MID MORNING TIME PERIOD. BY THIS AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE FROM THE PALMER DVD SOUTHWARD TOWARDS WALSENBURG...AND THIS IS WHERE I DREW UP THE GREATEST POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH N EL PASO COUNTY CAREFULLY AS BANDING PRECIP HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IF THESE BANDS PERSIST...THEN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY REACH INTO WARNING CRITERIA. THE PLAINS WILL BE OVC THE ENTIRE DAY AND IT WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN N EL PASO COUNTY. OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS AND VALLEYS...IT SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY. TONIGHT... BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE...WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BY MID TO LATE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE L20S MOST PLAINS WITH SOME TEENS IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEENS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS/MTNS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016 ...HIGH FIRE DANGER EARLY NEXT WEEK...MORE SNOW AND COLD POSSIBLE LATER... THE SPRING WEATHER-COASTER IS HERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL STILL BE COLD WITH EVEN A FEW SPOTTY FLURRIES NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLY...BUT THEN A NICE WARMING TREND SETS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE GRIPS OF ANOTHER WINDY AND DRY PERIOD. THE CURRENT SNOWFALL MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT IN DETERRING THE FIRE DANGER IN PARTS OF THE AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND HOW MUCH IS LEFT BY THE TIME MONDAY ROLLS AROUND. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT ANY POSITIVE IMPACT WILL BE VERY LIMITED AS SHORT TURN AROUND FUELS LIKE DEAD GRASSES TEND TO DRY OUT VERY QUICKLY...MINIMIZING THE TEMPORARY WETTING EFFECT OF THE SNOWFALL. SO...LIKELY DEALING WITH FIRE CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN UP THE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS A BIT WHERE THE SNOW IS ABSENT. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT THEY BECOME QUITE STRONG ON TUESDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DAY OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER. FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THEY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...WHILE HIGH FIRE DANGER IMPACTS MOST AREAS...WIND-DRIVEN SNOW WILL START MOVING BACK INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EAST FROM THE PACIFIC. WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT THE REPRIEVE LOOKS SHORT-LIVED. THE DAY LOOKS TO START OUT WITH JUST A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. BUT...BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS DIGGING INTO NEW MEXICO...WITH PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN...DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES WIDESPREAD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THE SNOW THEN LINGERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH TIME OUT OF THE STATE. HARD TO SAY WHAT THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKE AT THIS DISTANT RANGE...BUT IT HAS POTENTIAL. THE STORM...ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. BUT AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. PATTERN APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE MUCH MORE ACTIVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE MONTH THAN IT WAS FOR THE FIRST. FINGERS CROSSED. NO ONE WANTS AN EARLY FIRE SEASON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016 MVFR TO IFR VIS/CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...AFFECTING THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS REFORMING NEAR THE MOUNTAINS MAY SPREAD BACK INTO THE KCOS TERMINAL DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...TAKING CIGS BACK DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. SNOW WILL END AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 00Z...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND FROM A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER 13Z FOR KCOS WHICH SHOULD ERODE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...CIGS AT KPUB WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR SNOWFALL...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...THOUGH KPUB COULD PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. KALS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15-25 KTS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE DURING THE EVENING.-KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ081- 082-084. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...LW AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
908 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 901 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016 BAND OF SNOW IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PUEBLO AREA...WHILE SNOW UPSTREAM HAS LIGHTENED UP CONSIDERABLY AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING EASTWARD. REVISED POP GRIDS TO CAPTURE THE BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES. AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES WITH THIS BAND. HRRR SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH KEEPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES. -KT && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016 ...WINTER RETURNS FOR A DAY FOR PARTS OF THE PLAINS... CURRENTLY... AT 3 AM...EAST-WEST BAND OF SNOW...MDT IN INTENSITY PER RADAR...WERE LOCATED ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY. LIGHTER SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS THE REST OF EL PASO COUNTY...AND SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED INTO N PUEBLO COUNTY AS VERY LIGHT SNOW WAS NOTED OUTSIDE THE WX OFFICE HERE IN PUEBLO. SNOW ALSO NOTED IN TELLER COUNTY PER RADAR AND WEBCAMS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS...A LOW OVC DECK WAS NOTED. INTERIOR MTNS AND VALLEYS FOR THE MOST PART WERE DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS LIKELY SOME SNOW FALLING AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OVER THE C MTNS PER RADAR. A 2NDRY COLD FRONT WAS APPARENT IN THE RADAR DATA AND IT EXTENDED FROM DEN TO LIC AND THEN INTO KIOWA COUNTY. IT WAS DROPPING SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. TODAY... MOST SNOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE WILL FALL ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. TOWARDS SUNRISE EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...AND THE SNOW IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY START TO DROP SOUTH AS THE 2NDRY FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE S MTNS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WILL BE DURING THE MID MORNING TIME PERIOD. BY THIS AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE FROM THE PALMER DVD SOUTHWARD TOWARDS WALSENBURG...AND THIS IS WHERE I DREW UP THE GREATEST POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH N EL PASO COUNTY CAREFULLY AS BANDING PRECIP HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IF THESE BANDS PERSIST...THEN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY REACH INTO WARNING CRITERIA. THE PLAINS WILL BE OVC THE ENTIRE DAY AND IT WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN N EL PASO COUNTY. OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS AND VALLEYS...IT SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY. TONIGHT... BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE...WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BY MID TO LATE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE L20S MOST PLAINS WITH SOME TEENS IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEENS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS/MTNS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016 ...HIGH FIRE DANGER EARLY NEXT WEEK...MORE SNOW AND COLD POSSIBLE LATER... THE SPRING WEATHER-COASTER IS HERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL STILL BE COLD WITH EVEN A FEW SPOTTY FLURRIES NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLY...BUT THEN A NICE WARMING TREND SETS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE GRIPS OF ANOTHER WINDY AND DRY PERIOD. THE CURRENT SNOWFALL MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT IN DETERRING THE FIRE DANGER IN PARTS OF THE AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND HOW MUCH IS LEFT BY THE TIME MONDAY ROLLS AROUND. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT ANY POSITIVE IMPACT WILL BE VERY LIMITED AS SHORT TURN AROUND FUELS LIKE DEAD GRASSES TEND TO DRY OUT VERY QUICKLY...MINIMIZING THE TEMPORARY WETTING EFFECT OF THE SNOWFALL. SO...LIKELY DEALING WITH FIRE CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN UP THE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS A BIT WHERE THE SNOW IS ABSENT. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT THEY BECOME QUITE STRONG ON TUESDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DAY OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER. FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THEY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...WHILE HIGH FIRE DANGER IMPACTS MOST AREAS...WIND-DRIVEN SNOW WILL START MOVING BACK INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EAST FROM THE PACIFIC. WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT THE REPRIEVE LOOKS SHORT-LIVED. THE DAY LOOKS TO START OUT WITH JUST A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. BUT...BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS DIGGING INTO NEW MEXICO...WITH PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN...DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES WIDESPREAD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THE SNOW THEN LINGERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH TIME OUT OF THE STATE. HARD TO SAY WHAT THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKE AT THIS DISTANT RANGE...BUT IT HAS POTENTIAL. THE STORM...ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. BUT AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. PATTERN APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE MUCH MORE ACTIVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE MONTH THAN IT WAS FOR THE FIRST. FINGERS CROSSED. NO ONE WANTS AN EARLY FIRE SEASON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016 KCOS...PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SNOW/BR. PERIODS OF LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOWFALL. KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT 10 UTC...BUT CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH SN- DEVELOPING. EXPECT MAIN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURNING TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT DUE TO CIGS/SN-. WE MAY SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARDS SUNRISE SATURDAY. KALS WILL SEE VFR NEXT 24H. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ081- 082-084. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...LW AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1126 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016 NEW 00Z NAM AND 01Z HRRR BOTH HAVE VERY LITTLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH 12Z...SO HAVE BEGUN TO CUT BACK OVERNIGHT POPS OVER THE PLAINS AND ALONG I25 FROM COLORADO SPRINGS SOUTHWARD. ALSO MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO SURFACE WINDS TO CAPTURE PERIOD OF NE GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS OVER THE PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016 ...WINTER WILL REVISIT SOUTHEAST COLORADO... NEXT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES OF ID/WY/MT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SFC FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH EL PASO COUNTY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST CO IS IN THE 60S. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS THE ASSOC UPPER JET TRANSLATES IN. MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM STAYS A LITTLE OFF TO THE NORTH...WITH MAJORITY OF THE FORCING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO CONSISTING OF SHALLOW UPSLOPE. HOWEVER...PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH IS IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO FORCING WITH THE UPPER JET...SHOULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL...ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK THAT HEAVY...BUT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES...COULD SEE SOME IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO SPRINGS...NORTHWARD TO MONUMENT HILL AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S AND ROADS BEGIN TO ICE UP. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY STILL LOOK ON TRACK...WITH PRIMARILY 2-5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND 3 TO 7 FOR TELLER COUNTY. SNOW WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE PUEBLO AREA AND MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF NARROW RIBBON OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PUSH OF DEEPER COLD AIR...BUT SOUNDINGS QUICKLY SATURATE DEEPLY ENOUGH FOR A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 MAY BE MOST AT RISK FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...BUT FOR NOW MODELS DO NOT SHOW MORE THAN A BRIEF 1-2 HR WINDOW FOR SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 40S...AND WITH ROAD SFCS CARRYING SOME RESIDUAL WARMTH ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...THINK THAT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL BE MINIMAL. CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO PICK UP SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT(1- 2" RANGE)...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SHALLOW TO PUSH OVER INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WILL BE THE WARMEST ON FRIDAY...WITH KALS SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S...COMPARED TO THE PLAINS WHICH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. -KT .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT MODERATES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING...AS LIFT AND MOISTURE WANE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z AND THE 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM CONTINUE TO PRINT OUT QPF ACROSS THE PLAINS WELL INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS COULD BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE AND HAVE POPS ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS AT TAD ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY AHEAD OF EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS A MINOR SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD. COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS MORE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016 KCOS WLL SEE CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THE INTENSITY OF SNOW WILL AT TIMES RESULT IN IFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. KPUB SHOULD SEE CIGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON KPUB COULD SEE SOME RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPS GET. THEN IN THE EVENING HOURS AS TEMPS COOL THE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOULD INCREASE AND CIGS/VSBY COULD LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. KALS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ081- 082-084. && $$ UPDATE...PETERSEN SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
740 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF CAPE COD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK. THERE IS A BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH OVER LONG ISLAND AS SEEN ON THE RADAR WHICH COULD BE A SEA BREEZE. HAVE NOTICED DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 20S ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...WHILE THEY REMAIN IN THE TEENS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH SHORE. ALSO...THERE IS A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. OBSERVATIONS ALONG COASTAL CONNECTICUT ALSO SHOW A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THINKING THAT THIS WILL LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN THE SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL COME BACK. THE HRRR HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL BE NORTH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD STAY SOUTH ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP FROM ENCROACHING INTO SOUTHERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. SPRING OFFICIALLY ARRIVES AT 12:30 AM EDT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH AS IT DIGS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND THAT LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE LOW BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST... AND ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...EXPECTING SFC TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING DUE TO THE WET BULB EFFECT. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CHANGE TO PLAIN SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL TRACK RIGHT AROUND THE 40/70 BENCHMARK MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE FORCED OFFSHORE AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 30-40 KT LLJ SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AS PRECIP WRAPS AROUND THE BACK OF THE LOW. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR EASTERN SUFFOLK AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES...WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 4-7 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIDDLESEX...WESTERN SUFFOLK...AND NASSAU COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOR NYC AND COASTAL NJ...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY...BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN 1-3 INCHES. PARTS OF INTERIOR NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR 2. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR COASTAL AREAS...AS ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP TO WATCHES/WARNINGS IF HEAVIER BANDS ROTATE FARTHER WEST. STORM DEPARTS ON MONDAY...AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER A MILDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND HIGHS IN NYC AND URBANIZED AREAS OF NE NJ WILL TOP OFF AROUND 50. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...KEEPING THE AREA DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND HEAD EAST PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE TIMING AND EXACT LOCATIONS ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS. THEREAFTER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AS THE 12Z GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. ALSO...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO TALK ABOUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE GFS DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES OFF SHORE...AND THUS IS ASSOCIATED WITH MUCH MORE RAINFALL THAN THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS WELL DEPENDING ON WHAT SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WE WILL BE ON. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THURSDAY MAY BE THE MOST PROBLEMATIC AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES. AS AN EXAMPLE...THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS A RANGE FROM 46 TO 64 FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KISP ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE AT LEAST ON WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WE WILL BE ON. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY VFR THRU 18Z. THEREAFTER...MVFR OR IFR MAY DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW TOWARD EVENING...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. AS FOR WINDS...ANY REMNANTS OF A SEA BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15G15-20KT OUT OF THE NE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY MID MORNING...AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TOWARDS THE ENE. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUNDAY NIGHT...NYC/LONG ISLAND/CT TERMINALS PROBABLY WILL SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SNOW...WITH LIFR POSSIBLE EASTERN TERMINALS. KSWF AND POSSIBLY KHPN MIGHT NOT GET ANY SNOW...AND COULD STAY VFR. N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AT EASTERN TERMINALS. .MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. NW-WNW WINDS G25-30KT LIKELY. .TUESDAY...VFR. W-SW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER...WITH SW-WSW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH VERY LOW CHANCE OF MVFR. S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY. && .MARINE... HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT...AND EXPECTING SCA CONDS TO DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON MONDAY. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON ON ALL OTHER WATERS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS...COMING BELOW 25 KT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID MORNING OR THEREAFTER ON TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. WAVES WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...5 FT WAVES MAY BE PRESENT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE. && .HYDROLOGY... TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF 0.1 TO 0.6 INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS FALLING IN THE FORM OF SNOW...NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL FALL OVER E SUFFOLK AND SE CT...AND LESS THAN 0.1 INCH QPF POSSIBLE FOR NW PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... MOST PLACES SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN LI SOUND MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ008-012. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ007-011. NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ079-081. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ078-080-177-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/MPS NEAR TERM...JP/MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...PW MARINE...JP/MPS HYDROLOGY...JP/MPS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
658 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF CAPE COD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK. THERE IS A BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH OVER LONG ISLAND AS SEEN ON THE RADAR WHICH COULD BE A SEA BREEZE. HAVE NOTICED DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 20S ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...WHILE THEY REMAIN IN THE TEENS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH SHORE. ALSO...THERE IS A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. OBSERVATIONS ALONG COASTAL CONNECTICUT ALSO SHOW A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THINKING THAT THIS WILL LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN THE SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL COME BACK. THE HRRR HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL BE NORTH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD STAY SOUTH ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP FROM ENCROACHING INTO SOUTHERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. SPRING OFFICIALLY ARRIVES AT 12:30 AM EDT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH AS IT DIGS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND THAT LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE LOW BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST... AND ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...EXPECTING SFC TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING DUE TO THE WET BULB EFFECT. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CHANGE TO PLAIN SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL TRACK RIGHT AROUND THE 40/70 BENCHMARK MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE FORCED OFFSHORE AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 30-40 KT LLJ SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AS PRECIP WRAPS AROUND THE BACK OF THE LOW. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR EASTERN SUFFOLK AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES...WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 4-7 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIDDLESEX...WESTERN SUFFOLK...AND NASSAU COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOR NYC AND COASTAL NJ...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY...BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN 1-3 INCHES. PARTS OF INTERIOR NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR 2. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR COASTAL AREAS...AS ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP TO WATCHES/WARNINGS IF HEAVIER BANDS ROTATE FARTHER WEST. STORM DEPARTS ON MONDAY...AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER A MILDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND HIGHS IN NYC AND URBANIZED AREAS OF NE NJ WILL TOP OFF AROUND 50. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...KEEPING THE AREA DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND HEAD EAST PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE TIMING AND EXACT LOCATIONS ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS. THEREAFTER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AS THE 12Z GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. ALSO...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO TALK ABOUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE GFS DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES OFF SHORE...AND THUS IS ASSOCIATED WITH MUCH MORE RAINFALL THAN THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS WELL DEPENDING ON WHAT SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WE WILL BE ON. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THURSDAY MAY BE THE MOST PROBLEMATIC AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES. AS AN EXAMPLE...THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS A RANGE FROM 46 TO 64 FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KISP ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE AT LEAST ON WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WE WILL BE ON. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW/RAIN COULD DEVELOP AT KISP/KJFK 16-18Z SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT AT KISP...SEABREEZE AT KJFK/CT TERMINALS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE AT KISP AND VERY LOW CHANCE AT KLGA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN NE THROUGHOUT AT UNDER 10 KT BY MID-EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15G15-20KT OUT OF THE NE OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY MID MORNING...AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TOWARDS THE ENE. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...NYC/LONG ISLAND/CT TERMINALS PROBABLY WILL SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SNOW...WITH LIFR POSSIBLE EASTERN TERMINALS. KSWF AND POSSIBLY KHPN MIGHT NOT GET ANY SNOW...AND COULD STAY VFR. N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AT EASTERN TERMINALS. .MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. NW-WNW WINDS G25-30KT LIKELY. .TUESDAY...VFR. W-SW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER...WITH SW-WSW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH VERY LOW CHANCE OF MVFR. S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY. && .MARINE... HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT...AND EXPECTING SCA CONDS TO DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON MONDAY. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON ON ALL OTHER WATERS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS...COMING BELOW 25 KT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID MORNING OR THEREAFTER ON TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. WAVES WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...5 FT WAVES MAY BE PRESENT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE. && .HYDROLOGY... TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF 0.1 TO 0.6 INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS FALLING IN THE FORM OF SNOW...NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL FALL OVER E SUFFOLK AND SE CT...AND LESS THAN 0.1 INCH QPF POSSIBLE FOR NW PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... MOST PLACES SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN LI SOUND MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ008-012. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ007-011. NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ079-081. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ078-080-177-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/MPS NEAR TERM...JP/MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JP/MPS HYDROLOGY...JP/MPS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THE SAME TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... QUITE THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL HELP PREVENT THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM LIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN FOR SOME AREAS AT TIMES. ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HAS HELPED TO COOL THE COLUMN MORE WHICH RESULTED IN SNOW MIXING IN OR EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW. RADAR TRENDS AS OF 0130Z HAVE A BREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS, HOWEVER THERE IS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST MOVING EASTWARD ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS WEAKER ATTM. LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW BANDS OF 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE, TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE INITIAL WAVE AND ITS LIFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT, THEREFORE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF AS WELL. THE POPS REFLECT THIS WITH A DECREASING TREND SOUTHWARD. FARTHER NORTH, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH EVEN THE CLOUDS THINNING FOR A TIME. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A MOS BLEND, HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURES MAY TEND TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY NOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... ON SUNDAY, POPS WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD, WHICH BRINGS BETTER LIFT DEEPER INTO OUR CWA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PERHAPS SOME BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FOR AWHILE, HOWEVER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING OR MOVING INLAND SOME AS THE INCOMING TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN MORE. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING, AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON IN NEW JERSEY. IF THIS OCCURS, QUICKER COOLING WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW OCCURRING. AS OF NOW, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE OTHER THAN TO ADD MORE MIX/SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYS END. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL SO UNLESS PRECIP FALLS HARD, THE SNOW LIKELY WOULD JUST STICK MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES, CARS ETC. THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ITS TOUGH DURING THE DAY TO GET APPRECIABLE SNOW DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE UNLESS IT COMES DOWN HARD. THE BEST CHCS ATTM FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW FALLING WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE EVENING HOURS. MONDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH A BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UP TICK. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO ALL THE AREA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES...ITS BEEN VERY WARM SO FAR THIS MONTH...6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW A BRIEF COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS COMING WEEK BEFORE IT WARMS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END. FOR REFERENCE, THE NORMALS FOR PHILLY DURING THE PERIOD ARE LOW TO MID 50S AND MID 30S. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION...THIS EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES THREE PRECIPITATION REFERENCES. THE FIRST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE SECOND REFERENCE IS MIDWEEK ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. THE THIRD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. WINDS...NORTH WINDS MAINLY 10 OR LESS SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING NORTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY ON MONDAY. THE WINDS, 10 OR LESS, WILL START TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. THEY COULD GUST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. IMPACTS...NOTHING WIDESPREAD SHAPING UP ATTM. WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE SNOW, THEY SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ATTM, IMPACTS APPEAR THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. WE COULD SEE SOME MORNING SPRING FOG LATER IN THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT IT`T TOO SOON TO DETERMINE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A TIME OF MVFR CEILINGS SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL DURING THE REST OF THIS EVENING. SOME MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS MOSTLY SOUTH OF KPHL. KMIV AND KACY HAVE THE GREATER CHANCE OF HAVING MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE VISIBILITY AS THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY OVERALL MAY BE RATHER LIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, HOWEVER FAVORING NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SUNDAY...VFR CEILINGS NEAR AND NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL OVERALL, WITH LOWER CEILINGS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE SHIFTS WESTWARD SOME. AS A RESULT, RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED FROM KTTN-KPNE-KPHL-KILG ON EASTWARD WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR AWHILE ESPECIALLY AT KMIV AND KACY. OUR CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE HOWEVER WITH THE IMPACTS AND TIMING AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. OUTLOOK... EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR, LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR FOR A TIME IN MOSTLY SNOW VCNTY KACY. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS COULD BE GUSTY 15- 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND. WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... A SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WATERS THRU THE PD DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS, MOVES OFF THE CST AND THEN UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THU SUN. ATTM, IT DOES NOT APPEAR GALE CRITERIA WILL BE MET, SO THE GALE WATCH WAS DROPPED. OUTLOOK... SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD... SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FAVORED WINDS LESS THAN 35 KT. WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER BAY. MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. A SCA LOOKS LIKELY. MAYBE GALES MONDAY EVENING. LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...DIMINISHING WIND AND HEADLINES NOT LIKELY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SCA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, EXPECT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY FAVORABLE, AND WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL OFF SHORE, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS OUR LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING SHY OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR BOTH THE SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER AS A SLIGHT SHIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD INCREASE THE THREAT. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO NEAR TERM...GORSE SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG LONG TERM...KRUZDLO AVIATION...GORSE/KRUZDLO MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
945 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .UPDATE... HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, MAINLY LOWERING THEM OVER THE PENINSULA OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AND LOOKING AT THE HRRR, THE NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET. THE HRRR ACTUALLY SHOWS ALMOST NO ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AT THIS POINT, BUT WILL NOT REMOVE THE MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BUT, DID REDUCE THEM TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ AVIATION... THE WEATHER HAS CALMED DOWN FOR THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR A STORM THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA TOMORROW FROM THE WEST, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER. CURRENTLY HAVE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE MORNING HOURS, AND THEN SHOWERS AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 17Z FOR ALL TAF SITES. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN IT TREK ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SO, VFR CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT SOME ALT REQD IS POSSIBLE FOR TOMORROW. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ UPDATE... REGIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELED. UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT THE WANING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...LEFT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REGION WIDE FOR THE REMAINING EVENING HOURS AND OVER NIGHT. RECENT MESO-SCALE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING. 60 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ UPDATE... THE ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...SOME OF WHICH WAS SPAWNED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. BUT SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES. WITH THESE TRENDS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS DROPPED FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES...LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH THE ONLY AREAS LEFT IN THE WATCH BEING BROWARD COUNTY AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. 60 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR MIAMI DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES .. DISCUSSION... WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...A BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST GULF EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE FROM BROWARD COUNTY NORTHWARD TO PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE AND RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND PWAT MAXIMA ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY WHICH CAN SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS. IN ADDITION THERE IS A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AND REGIONAL HELICITY THAT CAN SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS STILL POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR MIAMI DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. IN ADDITION WE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE NEED TO EXPAND THE WATCH TO MIAMI DADE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY WITH A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS. BUT FORECAST REGIONAL INSTABILITY DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE PENINSULA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BUT THE THREAT OF STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS DIMINISHED. A CLEARING TREND IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION. RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A LINGERING SMALL LONG PERIOD SWELL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED ACROSS ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MARINE... REGIONAL WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS BUILDING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FIRE WEATHER... MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 71 85 56 66 / 20 70 40 0 FORT LAUDERDALE 73 87 58 67 / 20 70 40 10 MIAMI 74 86 60 69 / 20 60 40 10 NAPLES 72 81 59 68 / 20 60 30 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...13/SI LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
422 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .Near Term [Through Tonight]... Radar and satellite mosaics continue to show a large area of rain and embedded convection over the north-central Gulf of Mexico and adjacent parts of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. As was discussed earlier this morning, the MCS over the Gulf has limited the northward expansion of the LLJ over land portions of the Southeast. This is confirmed by looking at surface and VWP wind observations, as well as recent RAP analysis. Essentially the area of low-level convergence in which the rain and storms have been developing has only been further enhanced while remaining relatively stationary. That has largely prevented any rain or thunderstorms from affecting our area. Scattered thunderstorms were also forming in a separate region north of I-20 in central Mississippi and central Alabama. The overall result has been that our area has largely stayed dry for much of the day. PoPs were further decreased prior to 21-22Z over most of the area, and temperatures were nudged down again as mid-high level cloud layers continue to stream NE off the Gulf convection. Looking ahead to tonight, there are some signs that rain will finally build into the forecast area. In addition to cooling and northward-expanding cloud tops near coastal LA, MS, AL, there has also been an increase in convection in the past 1-2 hours between I- 20 and the coast in MS and AL. All of this is indicative of increasing ascent, which should allow rain to fill in this afternoon and evening and push east. There is not a cohesive timeline portrayed by the global or convection allowing models, so we just showed a general trend toward 50-70% PoPs tonight. There may be sufficient overlap of marginal elevated instability and around 40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear to produce a few stronger storms overnight, with hail being the primary threat. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... On Saturday, a slow moving or stationary boundary will be in place over the region. As a result POPs will be high around 70 percent for nearly all locations. Thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon with a marginal risk for severe. With CAPE forecast at 500 to 900 and 0 to 6 km shear forecast at 30 to 40 knots, a few isolated severe storms are possible. By Saturday night, the cold front is forecast to pick up some speed. Northwest portions of the region will see decreasing POPs at this time and southeast portions of the region will see POPs in the 40 to 65 percent range with thunder possible. Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s. Lows Saturday night will be in the low to mid 40s in northwest portions of the region and upper 40s and lower 50s elsewhere. On Sunday, the cold front is forecast to be southeast of the region. Expect drier weather and much cooler temperatures. Despite mostly sunny skies, highs will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s for most of the region. Sunday night, lows will be in the upper 30s for all locations except for the immediate coast. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... Most of the coming week is expected to be fairly uneventful. Subsidence aloft associated with a high pressure system will promote cooler and drier conditions over the area early in the week. There is a possibility of low temperatures in the 30s before sunrise on Monday morning and again on Monday night. Later in the week, a low pressure system is expected to track northeastward across the midwest, dragging a cold front across the southeastern states. The flow of gulf moisture ahead of the cold front will promote a steady increase of temperatures and humidity through the later parts of the week. The threat of thunderstorms is expected to return by Friday as the front approaches our area. && .Aviation... [Through 18Z Saturday] As of 1730Z, a mixture of cloud layers existed across the area, with lower clouds (IFR to low end MVFR) situated further south near ECP, TLH, and VLD. To the north, the clouds were mostly above 10,000 feet. Some of the low cloud layers may lift a bit this afternoon, with a trend toward MVFR-VFR at most locations through the late afternoon or early evening (around 00Z timeframe). It also should stay fairly dry through around 21-22Z, although rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will begin to push into the area after that. The timing of particular areas of rain is quite uncertain at this time, and the uncertainty is also higher than normal in terms of cloud layer trends after 00Z. For the TAFs, we simplified things with a broad forecast of rain showers and IFR CIGS, although it would be reasonable to expect some variability between 00Z this evening and 18Z tomorrow with several rounds of rain showers possible. && .Marine... Light southerly winds are expected tonight and Saturday. Also scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected as a cold front approaches. A few storms may be severe. Late Saturday evening, winds will begin to shift to the northwest as the cold front passes. Winds will increase to SCA levels (20 to 25 knots) around midnight for western portions of marine waters. SCA level winds will spread to all marine waters by Sunday morning. Winds and seas will remain elevated until Monday afternoon. && .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected through the weekend. && .Hydrology... An additional 1-3 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday night across most of the area with localized additional amounts of 5 inches possible. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur during the overnight hours tonight. The large scale rainfall amounts are not expected to be heavy enough for widespread flooding, but some isolated instances of flooding could occur tonight when the heaviest rainfall rates occur. Area rivers will be on the rise with the lower Choctawhatchee and Apalachicola basins the most likely to be impacted over the next several days. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 64 77 50 64 39 / 70 70 60 10 0 Panama City 65 72 51 61 44 / 70 70 40 0 0 Dothan 61 72 45 59 38 / 70 70 20 0 0 Albany 62 75 46 60 38 / 70 70 30 0 0 Valdosta 63 77 51 63 39 / 60 60 60 10 0 Cross City 63 79 56 68 39 / 50 50 60 20 0 Apalachicola 66 74 53 63 44 / 70 60 60 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT LONG TERM...KING/MCDERMOTT AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...MCDERMOTT FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL HYDROLOGY...DVD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
337 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .NEAR TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)... REST OF AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PERSISTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HELPED MIX DOWN DRIER AIR WHICH SQUASHED MOST CONVECTION. WSR 88D WAS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MARION COUNTY. LATEST HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA AND HAVE SCATTERED POPS THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. TONIGHT...STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SE GA LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND TRACKS INTO NW GA BY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS. SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS N GA INTO SC BY LATE IN THE DAY AS A LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AREA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SPC HAS OUR AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. WARM SW WINDS WILL HELP PUSH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH A FEW 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. .SHORT TERM... SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN SE GA WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AROUND 40 KNOTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POSING THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS THE FRONT ENTERS NORTHEAST FL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COVERAGE IN PRECIP WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY BUT HAVE KEPT AROUND 40 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THESE AREAS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST FL INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING FROM SW TO NW AS FRONT PASSES. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN DROPPING LOW TEMPS ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. ELSEWHERE LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NE FL COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY DURING THE MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID MORNING. NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE DROP EXPECTED ON SUNDAY EVEN WITH SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS SE GA AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS NE FL. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH GUSTING AROUND 20-25 MPH. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL FEEL AROUND 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE FORECAST LOW TEMPS. .LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...CENTERING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS MOVEMENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL US LATE IN THE WEEK. COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. AS WINDS SHIFT ON TUESDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LOW 80S BY THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT DUE TO EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCP MOVING IN WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. HAVE KEPT MOST TERMINALS VFR EXCEPT HAVE MVFR CIGS AT GNV AFT 04Z. ALSO EXPECTING SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO MOVE IN OVERNITE AND HAVE LIGHT RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS. && .MARINE...A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND MOVES NE. THE LOW WILL LIFT NE TO THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY. RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK FOR THE NE FL BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELLS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 63 76 53 64 / 60 70 60 10 SSI 62 73 57 66 / 60 70 60 20 JAX 64 78 58 68 / 60 70 50 20 SGJ 64 78 61 69 / 60 70 50 30 GNV 64 79 59 69 / 60 70 50 20 OCF 64 81 61 70 / 60 60 50 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ GUILLET/PETERSON/WALSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
322 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .DISCUSSION... ...A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS WEEKEND... CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...THE DRIER AIR ON THE MORNING SOUNDINGS MIXED DOWN DURING DAYTIME HEATING AND LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE MOISTURE WAS A LITTLE DEEPER. DIFFUSE HEATING WAS OCCURRING THROUGH CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO PUSH SLOWLY INLAND. A FEW CELLS FORMED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING INLAND AROUND CEDAR KEY. THE HRRR MODEL BLEW IT UP INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER RADAR SHOWED THESE ECHOES HAD DISSIPATED. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPED SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION JUST INLAND FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD TOWARDS EARLY EVENING. WILL PAY SOME HONOR TO THE HRRR AND HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...HIGHER MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS AN IMPULSE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT THIS WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY CONTINUE SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. MOS HAS BEEN CARRYING HIGHER POPS DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SO WILL NOT CHANGE OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THAT TREND. SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH WILL CAUSE A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS LOCALLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE WAKE OF ONE IMPULSE ALOFT EARLY IN THE DAY AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE SEMI-PREVALENT MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND QUITE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ALONG WITH MODEST HEATING INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...WHILE THE EAST COAST BOUNDARY WILL NOT MOVE INLAND MUCH. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT ANY IMPULSES IN THE RATHER FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS POPS...AROUND 60 PERCENT SAT NIGHT-SUN...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WELL WEST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. MID LEVEL/500MB IMPULSES IN THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL/250MB JET MOVE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NIGHT. MID LEVEL/500MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE AROUND -12C WHICH IS PLENTY COLD/COOL ENOUGH TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO INITIATE CONVECTION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE 50-60 POP REASONABLE AFTER LOOKING AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION(S) SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE STARTING LATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY THEN THE MOISTURE STARTS DECREASING AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE PENINSULA. LOWS SUN MORNING MID 60S SUN NIGHT...FRONT CLEARS MAINLAND CENTRAL FLORIDA AROUND MIDNIGHT. ONLY PRECIP LEFT IS TO THE EAST OVER THE SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTY GULF STREAM AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 12 MPH NORTH TO SOUTH. THE NORTHWEST WIND ALSO ADVECTS IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MON MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 TO THE LOW 50S IN MARTIN COUNTY/STUART. PREVIOUS EXTENDED... MON-FRI...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GENERALLY NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST WED. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND SPREAD INTO FLORIDA ON MON WITH THIS FEATURE QUICKLY MOVING OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL LIE JUST NORTH OF ECFL. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WED THRU FRI. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO LOUISIANA ON THU PER THE GFS BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. ASIDE FROM TIMING...STRENGTH AND SURFACE/UPPER FEATURE PLACEMENT ALSO NOT IN LINE CURRENTLY BETWEEN BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH 60S AREAWIDE...STILL BELOW NORMAL INTO TUE WITH L-M 70S AND A MIX OF NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR HIGHS WED-THU. LOWS IN THE 40S INTERIOR/50S SPACE/TREASURE COASTS TUE MORNING...GENERALLY 50S WED MORNING...EXCEPT L60S IMMEDIATE ST. LUCIE/MARTIN COASTS AND PUSHING BACK UP NEAR 60 DEGREES TO L60S THU/FRI MORNINGS. && .AVIATION... STILL VFR EVERYWHERE. LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GO UP OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS AN IMPULSE ALOFT APPROACHES. THOUGH MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING MUCH MVFR...WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR TO OCCUR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING MAINLY NORTH OF KMCO-KTIX. RAIN CHANCES LOOK HIGH SAT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF STORMS. THE BULK EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...FLOW HAS BECOME LIGHT AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL STAY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT AND MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME SOUTH ON SAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE 3-4 FEET PRIMARILY DUE TO A LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL AT 13-15 SECONDS. THE PRIMARY THREAT TO MARINERS WILL BE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OFFSHORE ON SAT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SUN-SUN NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15KNOTS OR MORE LATE SUNDAY. SCATTERED/LIKELY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH LINGER DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING AND SHOULD HAVE ENDED BY SUNRISE MON MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE SUN EVENING AND REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR MORE THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MON-WED...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS EARLY MON SHIFT TO NORTH AND DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS MON NIGHT. WINDS DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO THE EAST TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRESSURE RE ALIGNS ITSELF WEST TO EAST WITH ITS CENTER AXIS OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. && .FIRE WEATHER... MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY MON... RUN A LINE FROM AROUND DAYTONA BEACH TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...RH LESS THAN 30 PERCENT TO AROUND 20 PERCENT CLERMONT AND SOUTH LAKE COUNTY. EAST OF THE SAME LINE...MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOW 30S. DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH...ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES AND BREEZY 20 FOOT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSELY FOR INCREASED FIRE SPREAD THREAT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 64 80 63 73 / 60 60 40 50 MCO 67 84 66 76 / 30 60 40 60 MLB 67 82 67 77 / 30 60 30 70 VRB 66 83 64 80 / 30 60 40 60 LEE 65 83 66 73 / 40 60 40 50 SFB 66 83 66 75 / 50 60 40 50 ORL 68 83 67 75 / 40 60 40 60 FPR 65 84 66 80 / 30 60 50 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LASCODY LONG TERM....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
951 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .UPDATE... TODAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LACKING ON MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION...UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...IF THEN. THE 06Z GFS HARDLY PRODUCED ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE HRRR MODEL HAS JUST BEEN SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LOW DBZ SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE TRIMMED BACK DAYTIME POPS...CONFINING CHANCE VALUES TO VOLUSIA AND NORTH LAKE COUNTIES. TONIGHT...HIGHER MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS AN IMPULSE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD FAVOR THE EVENING PERIOD WHEN SOME DAYTIME HEATING BOUNDARIES WERE STILL LINGERING...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY CONTINUE THUNDER CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. MOS HAS BEEN CARRYING HIGHER POPS DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SO WILL NOT CHANGE OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWED THAT TREND. && .AVIATION... CURRENTLY VFR EVERYWHERE AND DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MVFR SHOULD BE KLEE-KDAB AFTER 18Z AND POSSIBLY EVEN AS LATE AS 21-22Z. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LOW SHOWER CHANCES AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS...BUT CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD ACTUALLY GO UP TONIGHT AND A THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LINGER... ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KMCO-KTIX. && .MARINE... TODAY/TONIGHT...WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT HOLDING ON...10 KNOTS OR LESS INT THE NORTH AND 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AND FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT...POSSIBLY PICKING UP TO 10-15 KNOTS LATE. SEAS 3-4 FEET WILL PRIMARILY BE DUE TO A LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL AT 13-15 SECONDS. THE PRIMARY THREAT TO MARINERS WILL BE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS PUSHING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LASCODY LONG TERM....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
652 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AT 07Z EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS EAST GEORGIA...CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA. AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS REMAINS DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 1.00 INCH. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN SHIELD SHRINKING. LATEST HRRR MODEL CONFIRMS REASONING WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS. WENT WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AFTER 12Z WITH SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY BUT BREAKS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MOS TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO TRENDED WARMER...MID 70S. IT COULD BE WARMER DEPENDING ON INSOLATION AS TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEAK. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BUT LATEST ECMWF APPEARS FASTER AND MORE IN LINE WITH GFS/NAM. ALL MOS GUIDANCE LEANING TO NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY AS LOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED. INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY WITH IN-SITU WEDGE MORE LIKELY NORTH OF COLUMBIA AND WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE CSRA. WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS CSRA MAY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES AT 500MB AROUND -28C OR LOWER. GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY. TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE W AND CENT CONUS TUE THRU FRI...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN RESPONSE OFFSHORE THE SE CONUS. COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR FA MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST...BUILDING EAST INTO OUR REGION BY MON NT/TUE. COOL DRY AIR AND APPEARANCE OF WHAT COULD BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MAY PROVIDE A FROST THREAT FOR OUR FA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A WARMING TREND FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. COULD HIT 80 AGAIN BY THU. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTIES IN PLAY...BUT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO AFFECT OUR REGION AT SOME POINT LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN LATE. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MOVING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AT AGS/DNL THEN MOVING INTO OGB/CAE/CUB BETWEEN 19/02 AND 19/03Z. RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING INTO AGS/DNL AROUND 19/06Z AND SPREADING INTO CAE/CUB AROUND 19/08Z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
313 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AT 07Z EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS EAST GEORGIA...CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA. AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS REMAINS DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 1.00 INCH. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN SHIELD SHRINKING. LATEST HRRR MODEL CONFIRMS REASONING WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS. WENT WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AFTER 12Z WITH SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY BUT BREAKS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MOS TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO TRENDED WARMER...MID 70S. IT COULD BE WARMER DEPENDING ON INSOLATION AS TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEAK. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BUT LATEST ECMWF APPEARS FASTER AND MORE IN LINE WITH GFS/NAM. ALL MOS GUIDANCE LEANING TO NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY AS LOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED. INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY WITH IN-SITU WEDGE MORE LIKELY NORTH OF COLUMBIA AND WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE CSRA. WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS CSRA MAY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES AT 500MB AROUND -28C OR LOWER. GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY. TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE W AND CENT CONUS TUE THRU FRI...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN RESPONSE OFFSHORE THE SE CONUS. COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR FA MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST...BUILDING EAST INTO OUR REGION BY MON NT/TUE. COOL DRY AIR AND APPEARANCE OF WHAT COULD BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MAY PROVIDE A FROST THREAT FOR OUR FA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A WARMING TREND FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. COULD HIT 80 AGAIN BY THU. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTIES IN PLAY...BUT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO AFFECT OUR REGION AT SOME POINT LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AGS/DNL WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN MOVE OFFSHORE AS THE FRONT BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD. INCLUDED VCSH BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AT AGS/DNL THEN MOVING INTO OGB/CAE/CUB BETWEEN 19/02 AND 19/03Z. WITH SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF AGS/DNL/OGB EXPECT MIXING TO CONTINUE PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE COAST. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
159 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016/ .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THUS FAR TODAY...IT HAS BEEN THE SAME OLE STORY WRT GULF COAST CONVECTION THIS YEAR WITH MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA BECOMING CUTOFF AT THE EXPENSE OF GULF DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SPC RAP INDICES SHOWING A VERY SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT. BUT DESPITE VALUES CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG ALONG OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN BORDER...CONVECTION AS MENTIONED REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THIS GRADIENT AND CANT REALLY GET ANY TRANSPORT NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. INSTEAD...STARTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE ACTUALLY CAPE ZONE AS OPPOSED TO ACTIVITY ADVECTING IN BUT MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THUS FAR. WITH TIME THOUGH...SHOULD SEE THIS SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA AS WELL AND WILL CONTINUE LOW END CHANCE POPS WITH LOW END THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL. FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AND FEEL GUIDANCE IS UNDERDOING POPS BASED ON GRIDDED FIELD ANALYSIS IN THE GFS...NAM12...AND THE ECMWF. HAVE PUSHED POP CHANCES FURTHER NORTH WHILE ALSO INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY BUILD DURING THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED IT TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN LOCATIONS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LIKELY POPS. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH WARM FRONT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE TN/GA BORDER. INSTABILITY SHOULD RAMP UP AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH GEORGIA. GIVEN VICINITY OF THE LOW...SHOULDNT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT ANOTHER GULF CUTOFF SCENARIO AND SO WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST AREAS. DEESE && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE. BDL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS DIVERGE FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THE SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH GFS FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN ECMWF. DURING THIS TIME...AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES AREA...AGAIN GFS IS FURTHER EAST AND STRONGER THAN ECMWF...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BETTER POPS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LOW IS ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN FLOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN END OF SHORT WAVE ROTATES OVER THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE HAS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ANY LOW END POPS WILL BE MAINLY OVER NORTH GEORGIA. THE WORK WEEK IS PUNCTUATED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO SURPRISINGLY THE MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT BY WEEKS END. WILL KEEP LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW. ATWELL && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS AND EXITING PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEAST...SHOULD LEAVE LINGERING ALTO DECK INTO FRIDAY THEN GRADUAL LOWERING NEAR 5-7 KFT AFTER 18Z /SOUTHERN SITES TRENDING LOWER EARLIER/. -SHRA CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z BUT DELAYED CHANCE NEAR KATL UNTIL AFTER 18Z WITH PROB30 THEN PREDOMINANT FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN SITES FOR AFTERNOON. WINDS NEAR KATL INITIALLY WEST/NW UNDER 7 KTS SHOULD SWING NE AFTER ABOUT 11Z THIS MORNING THEN STAY EAST TO ESE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL WINDS MAY BE MORE VRB FOR SOUTHERN SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SHIFT. EXPECT TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND POSSIBLY LOWER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON PRECIP CHANCE TIMING. HIGH ON ALL ELSE. BAKER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 69 51 64 43 / 30 60 60 40 ATLANTA 67 54 63 41 / 40 60 60 30 BLAIRSVILLE 65 47 57 37 / 20 60 60 40 CARTERSVILLE 66 51 61 40 / 30 60 60 30 COLUMBUS 70 58 68 44 / 70 70 60 30 GAINESVILLE 66 51 60 41 / 30 60 60 40 MACON 69 57 69 45 / 60 60 60 40 ROME 67 51 59 39 / 30 60 60 30 PEACHTREE CITY 67 52 64 40 / 50 60 60 30 VIDALIA 70 58 72 50 / 60 60 70 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
335 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 TOMORROW. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 DEGREES. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WARM UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ACTUALLY RISE AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW FORMING TO OUR WEST. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS JUST A FEW SPRINKLES TO OUR NORTH AND WITH GENERAL FRONTOLYSIS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER. WOULDN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE IN OUR N/NE ZONES BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST. WILL SEE SOME MODEST CAA THIS MORNING THOUGH AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -5C. THIS COUPLED WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN STRATOCU WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A DIURNAL RECOVERY TODAY. LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER RAW GUIDANCE AND INHERITED FORECAST WITH HIGHS MID 40S-LOW 50S...COOLEST NEAR THE LAKE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...EXCEPT IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MID 20S. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 LARGE MID/UPPER LOW WILL THEN WOBBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR CWA NOT LOOKING GOOD AT ALL. BEST CVA AND DEFORMATION/FGEN SET TO PASS SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH 1030MB ONTARIO SURFACE HIGH MAINTAINING SIZABLE INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA. BEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E ALSO REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH CANADIAN RIDGE ACTUALLY MAINTAINING A STEADY FEED OF NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ON SATURDAY AS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE CLIPPED WITH SOME MODEST ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK VORTICITY SHRED. BUT EVEN THEN...CHANCES ARE NOT GREAT DUE TO SHEARING VORT MAX/WEAK UVV`S AND STUBBORN DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CUT POPS A BIT FOR SATURDAY BUT DID LEAVE SOME LOW CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF US-30. IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN WET BULB TEMPS LARGELY BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...WARM GROUND AND LIGHT QPF SUGGEST VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. ALSO LOWERED POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS VAST MAJORITY OF 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THETA-E TROUGH FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY THEN WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE QPF. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES DAMPENS EAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHLY MERIDIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW -10C. A FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT CORE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH BYPASSES US TO THE NORTHEAST AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE AWFULLY DRY. BACKGROUND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND KEPT FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO CHANGE DRASTICALLY FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. DEEP TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH DOWNSTREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING WARMER CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION. MODELS DISPLAYING TYPICAL DISCREPANCIES WITH DETAILS OF EVOLVING PATTERN. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK BUT TIMING REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH AREA AFTER DAYBREAK. LOCAL CU RULES SUGGEST BKN CLOUD DECK POSSIBLE WITH COLDER AIR IN THE NORTH...MAINLY KSBN. LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR HAVE TRIED TO BRING MVFR CIGS OVER WI INTO KSBN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR NEXT UPDATE. KFWA TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR JUST SCT TO OCCASIONAL BKN VFR CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN THE 10-14KT RANGE. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AGD SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...LASHLEY VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
127 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 826 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IN OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS TRIMMING OF PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN LWR MI WILL CONTINUE TO PINCH OFF/FILL AS IT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT SAT/RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE BEARISH ON PRECIP COVERAGE NORTH OF US 30 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CU FIELD HAS RAPIDLY EXPANDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...HI RES GUIDANCE THAT DOES SHOW SHOWERS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON ARE PLACING THE PRECIP COVERAGE SOUTH OF US 30...AS VORT RIBBON ON LEFT PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING UPPER JET TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...APPARENT PER LATEST W/V SAT LOOP. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF US 30 LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXCLUDED MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER POPPING UP WILL BE BETWEEN THE 22Z AND 02Z TIMEFRAME. ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED POPS NORTH...WITH ONLY A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING AND ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...CUT CLOUD COVERAGE CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...ON THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE. REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING BECOMES SPLIT BETWEEN DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM LOBE OF ELONGATED TROF AND UPPER MIDWEST LOW CUTTING OFF NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF A LIMA TO COLDWATER LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST. && .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 FORECAST PERIOD TO BEGIN WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...SPLINTERING ELONGATED E/W ORIENTED UPPER TROF WITH REMNANT FORMING CLOSED LOW OVER MID MS VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH ONLY SIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN SW CWA. PATTERN THEN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND BRINGS MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH IT. AFTER A CHILLY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY. WARM UP WILL BRING A RETURN FLOW AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS UPPER TROF IS CARVED OUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...RESULTING SW FLOW WILL HAVE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH AREA AFTER DAYBREAK. LOCAL CU RULES SUGGEST BKN CLOUD DECK POSSIBLE WITH COLDER AIR IN THE NORTH...MAINLY KSBN. LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR HAVE TRIED TO BRING MVFR CIGS OVER WI INTO KSBN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR NEXT UPDATE. KFWA TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR JUST SCT TO OCCASIONAL BKN VFR CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN THE 10-14KT RANGE. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JT SHORT TERM...NG LONG TERM...JAL AVIATION...LASHLEY VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1259 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 ...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION... .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT Thu MAR 17 2016 A winter weather advisory for snow was issued for a few central/west central counties. The Nam appears to be increasingly supported by the RAP for frontogenetically forced, developing rapidly snow toward the 3 am to 8 am timeframe. A caveat is the dry air currently, however there are several hours to go for saturation to develop. The NAM and RAP indicated in excess of 4 inches, so probability of reaching at least the lower advisory threshold of 2 inches seems decent this morning despite the warm ground, and warm temperatures that need to be overcome by dynamic cooling. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday) ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 For tonight, a shortwave trough with moderate to strong surface to mid level frontogenesis, will move into western Kansas later tonight with increasing clouds and rain and snow chances. Rain should develop north of Dodge City around midnight, then spread south during the morning as a cold front drops southward across Kansas. Rain then should change to mostly snow after midnight into early morning, north of a Garden City to Larned line with around an inch accumulation from near Hays to Wakeeney and Scott City. The snow should stick mainly on grassy surfaces as a wet snow. South winds around 10 to 20 mph will shift to the northeast at 15 to 25 mph with the cold front. Overnight lows will be around 30 north of Dodge City to the mid 30s south. For Friday, the shortwave trough and attendant forcing will move rapidly east in the afternoon with precipitation rapidly winding down. Rain may mix with snow near Dodge City and west, with mainly all snow from Garden City to Jetmore and Larned and north in the morning. Additional snow accumulations could be another inch from Scott City to Hays and north with lesser amounts elsewhere. Total snow amounts could be around 2 inches from Scott City to Hays including Wakeeney. Northeast winds will continue at 15 to 25 mph with highs only in the upper 30s to around 40. Warmer mid 40s will be in parts of south central Kansas from Ashland to near Pratt. .LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday) ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 For Friday night into Wednesday, a dry period is forecast with a warming trend. Cool northwest flow aloft will transition to warmer ridging. Highs warm from around 50 on Saturday, mid to upper 50s Sunday, mid to upper 70s Monday and Tuesday, then 60s to around 70 on Wednesday. Lows will be cold on Friday night and Saturday night with only around 18 to 25 degrees. Lows then warm into the 30s Sunday night, with 40s into Tuesday night. A cold front moves across Kansas Wednesday night as an upper low is forecast to approach the region on Thursday. Chances for rain or snow increase with this upper low. Highs on Thursday fall back into the 50s with lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 Cielings will deteriorate overnight across the area as a sharp preciptation band develops from northwest into central Kansas, and persists through the morning hours on Friday. The post frontal system will bring sustained northeast winds gusting to near 30 knots at times through the early afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 23 49 22 57 / 10 0 0 0 GCK 22 48 19 57 / 10 0 0 0 EHA 23 49 25 62 / 20 0 0 0 LBL 22 51 22 59 / 10 0 0 0 HYS 22 47 21 54 / 10 10 0 0 P28 24 53 24 58 / 10 0 0 0 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030- 031-044>046-064-065. && $$ UPDATE...Russell SHORT TERM...Kruse LONG TERM...Kruse AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1101 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA. THE FIRST IS NEAR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. SEVERAL WEAK BANDS OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF OUR CWA. TONIGHT-FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COMBINING WITH EAST-NORTHEAST MOIST FLOW NORTH OF THIS FRONT. POPS/TIMING WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS NOW MENTIONED ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL INDICATION FROM SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE OF A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CSI WITH NEAR NEUTRAL THETA E LAPSE RATES WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL MORE FOCUSED/INTENSE SNOW BANDS TO FORM. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING (OR WHERE) AND I LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE IDEA OF LESS INSTABILITY/BROADER LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE. TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS PRECIP WINDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD AND FRONTOGENESIS TRANSITIONS OUT OF OUR CWA. REGARDING PRECIP TYPE...MOISTURE PROFILES STILL APPEAR TO BE PROBLEMATIC IN OUR EASTERN CWA...WITH WET BULB SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-35F RANGE. THIS COULD MEAN THAT LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST (WHERE THE STRONGER QPF SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE IS) WOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIP OCCURRENCE WITH HIGHS LINGERING NEAR WET BULB TEMPS UNLESS PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND BEST CHANCE FOR CLEARING WOULD BE IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS THAT LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MAINLY SNOW. THE OTHER COMPLICATION WILL BE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD EAT INTO ANY POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS (BARRING HEAVIER SNOW RATES). IN ANY CASE IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF OUR CWA SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN NW KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO...AND LESS IN SW NEBRASKA. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016 GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST...COINCIDING WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN ROCKIES...THAT WILL SHIFT SURFACE FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY 06Z SATURDAY...THUS ENDING UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM 06Z SATURDAY ONWARD WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR NEXT MONDAY ON THRU TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OFF TO THE EAST...WITH BUILDING H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS IS GOING TO CREATE DOWNSLOPE MIDLEVEL FLOW THAT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. H5 RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST FAIRLY PROGRESSIVELY BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE PLAINS REGION SEEING A SHORTWAVE AFFECT THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING ESE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS SHIFTING UPPER LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THE RESULT WILL BE LESS QPF FOR THE CWA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST. FOR TEMPS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BEHIND DISSIPATING SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THRU THE DAY. NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS...WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS...ONLY TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BACK TO THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER. FOR PRECIPITATION...LINGERING -SW ON FRIDAY NIGHT COULD GIVE EASTERN COLORADO VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUM LESS THAN AN INCH. SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MIDWEEK WILL BRING A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ONLY UP TO A POTENTIAL 0.10" QPF...INCLUDING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW. FOR WINDS/RH...POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO INCREASE NEAR 20MPH SATURDAY BUT SHOULD TIL SUNDAY. MONDAY/TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING 10-20 MPH W/ SOME LOCALES REACHING HIGHER FOR BRIEF PERIODS...ALONG WITH LOW RH READINGS MONDAY/TUESDAY NEAR 15-20 PERCENT...COULD CREATE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY COULD HAVE AREA SEEING GUSTS NEAR 30+ MPH WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016 A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GLD WILL BE INTERMITTENTLY VFR AND MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH LIGHT RAIN TURNING TO LIGHT SNOW AFTER 09Z AND DIMINISHING AFTER 14Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO ALL VFR AFTER 19Z WITH HIGHER SCATTERED CLOUDS AFTER 00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. MCK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE MAIN SNOW BAND AND LOWER CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY PASSED SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO SNOW AFTER 09Z MAY BE NOTED...BUT SHOULD BE WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY 14Z. SCATTERED HIGHER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 23Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1106 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 ...Winter Weather Advisory hoisted for a few west central Kansas counties early this morning Hays/Wakeeney/Dighton/Ness/LaCrosse... .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT Thu MAR 17 2016 A winter weather advisory for snow was issued for a few central/west central counties. The Nam appears to be increasingly supported by the RAP for frontogenetically forced, developing rapidly snow toward the 3 am to 8 am timeframe. A caveat is the dry air currently, however there are several hours to go for saturation to develop. The NAM and RAP indicated in excess of 4 inches, so probability of reaching at least the lower advisory threshold of 2 inches seems decent this morning despite the warm ground, and warm temperatures that need to be overcome by dynamic cooling. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday) ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 For tonight, a shortwave trough with moderate to strong surface to mid level frontogenesis, will move into western Kansas later tonight with increasing clouds and rain and snow chances. Rain should develop north of Dodge City around midnight, then spread south during the morning as a cold front drops southward across Kansas. Rain then should change to mostly snow after midnight into early morning, north of a Garden City to Larned line with around an inch accumulation from near Hays to Wakeeney and Scott City. The snow should stick mainly on grassy surfaces as a wet snow. South winds around 10 to 20 mph will shift to the northeast at 15 to 25 mph with the cold front. Overnight lows will be around 30 north of Dodge City to the mid 30s south. For Friday, the shortwave trough and attendant forcing will move rapidly east in the afternoon with precipitation rapidly winding down. Rain may mix with snow near Dodge City and west, with mainly all snow from Garden City to Jetmore and Larned and north in the morning. Additional snow accumulations could be another inch from Scott City to Hays and north with lesser amounts elsewhere. Total snow amounts could be around 2 inches from Scott City to Hays including Wakeeney. Northeast winds will continue at 15 to 25 mph with highs only in the upper 30s to around 40. Warmer mid 40s will be in parts of south central Kansas from Ashland to near Pratt. .LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday) ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 For Friday night into Wednesday, a dry period is forecast with a warming trend. Cool northwest flow aloft will transition to warmer ridging. Highs warm from around 50 on Saturday, mid to upper 50s Sunday, mid to upper 70s Monday and Tuesday, then 60s to around 70 on Wednesday. Lows will be cold on Friday night and Saturday night with only around 18 to 25 degrees. Lows then warm into the 30s Sunday night, with 40s into Tuesday night. A cold front moves across Kansas Wednesday night as an upper low is forecast to approach the region on Thursday. Chances for rain or snow increase with this upper low. Highs on Thursday fall back into the 50s with lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING) ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 High confidence in deteriorating flying conditions this TAF cycle. Strong cold front has already cleared HYS, with gusty NE winds and lowering cigs. Cold front will make rapid progress through all of SW KS early this evening, with NE wind gusts of 30-35 kts. Expect cigs to lower overnight, becoming MVFR/IFR by 12z Fri at DDC/GCK. Highest aviation impacts expected at HYS. Here, cigs will lower to IFR/MVFR by 06z, with -SN reducing vis to IFR. Visibility at HYS expected to drop to LIFR at times in the snow, and inserted a TEMPO group for this 09-12z Friday at HYS. -RASN also expected to reduce vis at GCK/DDC during the 09-15z timeframe. After 18z Friday, improvements expected. All precipitation will end rapidly, cigs will improve, and NE winds will diminish. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 34 40 23 49 / 30 50 10 0 GCK 32 39 22 48 / 40 50 10 0 EHA 32 39 23 49 / 20 30 20 0 LBL 34 41 22 51 / 20 20 10 0 A winter weaether advossory for snow was issued for a few central/west central counties. The Nam appera to be increasingly supported by tghe RAP for frontogenetically forced, developing rapidly snow toward the 3 adm to 8 amd timeframe. A caveat is the dry air currently, however there are several hours to go for saturation to develop. The NAM and RAP indicated in excess of 4 inches, so probability of reaching at least the lower advisory threshold of 2 inches seems decent this morning despite the warm ground, and warm temperateus that need to be overcome by dynamic cooling. && HYS 31 38 22 47 / 70 70 10 10 P28 38 45 24 53 / 20 40 10 0 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for KSZ030-031- 044>046-064-065. && $$ UPDATE...Russell SHORT TERM...Kruse LONG TERM...Kruse AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1054 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLEARING EXPANDING AND WORKING SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...HAVE LOWERED SKY COVER...WITH THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE BETTER CLEARING POTENTIAL NEAR THE BLUEGRASS. A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE HRRR ATTEMPTS TO CAPTURE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EXPANDED WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE. HAVE INCLUDED A POCKET OF SPRINKLES SLOWLY WORKING SOUTH AND FADING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE HRRR HINTS AT. LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET...ALTHOUGH DID EXPAND THE UPPER 20S A BIT FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN THE DECENT CLEARING TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REIGN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOME CLEARING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND SOME OF THIS THINNING MAY WORK IN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ALONE FOR NOW...HOWEVER READINGS ARE RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST SO WILL TOUCH THESE UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN BLEND BACK INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST. WILL WAIT A COUPLE MORE HOURS AND SEE IF ANY OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS A BIT MILDER BEFORE ADJUSTING THE LOWS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAD LED TO A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY JUST TO OUR NORTH...BUT THIS HAS DISSIPATED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS IOWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE BY TOMORROW. MOISTURE AND LIFT AND MAY SCRAPE OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THUS...WILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER WET WEATHER TO SPEAK OF IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TO OUR EAST...COLD ADVECTION WILL DRAG SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SKIES LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT MORE BREAKS WILL BE SEEN BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SKIES START TO CLEAR OFF. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FROST. COOP GUIDANCE HAS AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...AND CERTAINLY CANNOT DISCOUNT THIS POSSIBILITY. THUS...WILL PUT A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN THERE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGES STAYING IN THE UPPER 20S. REGARDLESS...THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTEREST OR OUTDOOR PLANTS WILL WANT TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT ANY EARLY PLANTS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL GIVE WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY DEAMPLIFY/FLATTEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW...WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH FARTHER NORTH...IN THE WYOMING/MONTANA/DAKOTAS REGION...WHILE THE GFS HAS IT PEGGED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. THIS DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. FROM HERE THE GFS HAS THE LOW LOSING STRENGTH AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE INCREASING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM OUR SOUTH WILL BE THE RECIPE FOR DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE UPPER 40S...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO THE LOW 60S ON TUESDAY...AND THEN UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 BY WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE BY LATE WEEK...WITH WPC PLANTING THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST AND NORTH OF KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PULLING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THIS WILL WORK TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS BRING IN SOME PRECIP CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER...BUT KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THEY ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE. COULDN/T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS AS WE START TO TAP INTO SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR STRONG...JUST POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS MIXING DOWN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IMPROVEMENT WILL GENERALLY OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY...WITH SJS HANGING ONTO MVFR THE LONGEST. NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY AND BECOME 5 TO 10 KTS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO THREATEN THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND WEST ON SUNDAY AND HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT LOZ AND JKL DURING THE DAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
139 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY EVENING...TAKING A PATH NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE DETAILS OF THIS PATH WILL DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR IF AND WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALLS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... --NOON UPDATE--WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST...AS MUCAPES ARE HAVING TROUBLE REACHING 100 J/KG...FULLY EXPLAINING THE SHRA ACTIVITY THUS FAR...BUT H8-7 LAPSE RATES ARE FAR LESS SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING MORE ROBUST. WILL UPDATE HWO ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES. --1025AM UPDATE-- MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP TIMING AS BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TURN INCREASINGLY TO LIQUID AS THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S. INSTABILITY IS ON THE INCREASE WITH EVIDENCE FROM MWN TEMPS NOW FALLING THROUGH THE MID TEENS AND SURFACE TEMPS AT PSM NEARING 50F. LATEST HRRR PROFILES SHOW LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS SURFACE-6KFT LAYER THAT ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS ONE DAY PREVIOUS...SO HAVE TONED DOWN THUNDER WORDING JUST A TAD...BUT HAVE KEPT IT IN AT THIS TIME. TEMPS LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED HERE. --826AM UPDATE-- HAVE TRENDED SNOWFALL DOWN JUST A TAD OVER NORTHERN AREAS BASED ON REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS RAIN /SEE HIE/. WEBCAM IN JACKMAN MAINE DOES REVEAL A COATING OF SNOW...AND EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO EVENTUALLY OCCUR FOR MOST AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS FROM TOPSHAM THROUGH WISCASSET SHOULD THIN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...WITH SPS ONGOING THROUGH 13Z LOOKING GOOD. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... HAVE ISSUED SPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AS PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES ALONG THE MIDCOAST REGION AND PORTIONS OF ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH SOME LIMITED CAPE IN THE SOUNDING OVER SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THIS REGION DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS SIMILAR TO WFO BOX GRIDS. THIS TIMING IS ALSO IN STEP WITH LATEST SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SMALL HAIL...NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY...BUT THERE IS THAT POSSIBILITY WITH CONTINUING LOW FREEZING LEVELS. QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY WITH READINGS NEAR FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING AS ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINISHES AROUND SUNSET AS IT MOVES OFF THE COASTLINE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE NORTH. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. IT WILL FEEL MORE WINTERLIKE WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS IS POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM. WHILE THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP...THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST WITH ITS TRACK THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD STAY OFFSHORE. THE 00Z GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW RESEMBLES THE GFS SOLUTION. THE 00Z GGEM AND NAM HAVE COME IN LOOKING SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF...FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER. THE DIFERENCE`S IN TRACK APPEAR TO REVOLVE AROUND THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS AND NOW ECMWF ARE SLOWER IN CAPTURING THE SURFACE LOW AND THEREFORE ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK. THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAPTURE THE SURFACE LOW QUICKER RESULTING IN A FURTHER WEST TRACK. GIVEN THAT THIS EVENT WON`T UNFOLD UNTIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WE CHOOSE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS WILL BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH A COUPLE MORE TIMES BEFORE LOCKING INTO A SOLUTION. HAVING SAID THIS...PEOPLE TRAVELING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS AS THIS STORM HAS HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL. CIPS ANALOG PAGES SHOW SOME EVENTS SIMILAR TO THIS THAT HAVE YIELDED DOUBLE DIGIT SNOW. WHILE THIS IS A POSSIBLE SCENARIO...IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND LOCAL EM DSS SLIDE. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE MIDWEEK AS AN EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM... SUMMARY: COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH CLEARING SKIES PROMOTING IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION/S WEATHER FOR SATURDAY. RESTRICTIONS: ANY REMAINING MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR AUG/RKD SHORTLY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ALSO CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS: NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 12G20KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL INCREASE TO 10G15KTS BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY. LLWS: NONE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WILL RAISE THE FLAGS AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THANKS FOR THE COLLABORATION. LONG TERM... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WIND AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA LEVELS AND POSSIBLY GALES DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EAST. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...LULOFS AVIATION...CANNON MARINE...CANNON/LULOFS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1200 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... --NOON UPDATE--WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST...AS MUCAPES ARE HAVING TROUBLE REACHING 100 J/KG...FULLY EXPLAINING THE SHRA ACTIVITY THUS FAR...BUT H8-7 LAPSE RATES ARE FAR LESS SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING MORE ROBUST. WILL UPDATE HWO ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES. --1025AM UPDATE-- MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP TIMING AS BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TURN INCREASINGLY TO LIQUID AS THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S. INSTABILITY IS ON THE INCREASE WITH EVIDENCE FROM MWN TEMPS NOW FALLING THROUGH THE MID TEENS AND SURFACE TEMPS AT PSM NEARING 50F. LATEST HRRR PROFILES SHOW LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS SURFACE-6KFT LAYER THAT ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS ONE DAY PREVIOUS...SO HAVE TONED DOWN THUNDER WORDING JUST A TAD...BUT HAVE KEPT IT IN AT THIS TIME. TEMPS LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED HERE. --826AM UPDATE-- HAVE TRENDED SNOWFALL DOWN JUST A TAD OVER NORTHERN AREAS BASED ON REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS RAIN /SEE HIE/. WEBCAM IN JACKMAN MAINE DOES REVEAL A COATING OF SNOW...AND EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO EVENTUALLY OCCUR FOR MOST AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS FROM TOPSHAM THROUGH WISCASSET SHOULD THIN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...WITH SPS ONGOING THROUGH 13Z LOOKING GOOD. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... HAVE ISSUED SPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AS PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES ALONG THE MIDCOAST REGION AND PORTIONS OF ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH SOME LIMITED CAPE IN THE SOUNDING OVER SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THIS REGION DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS SIMILAR TO WFO BOX GRIDS. THIS TIMING IS ALSO IN STEP WITH LATEST SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SMALL HAIL...NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY...BUT THERE IS THAT POSSIBILITY WITH CONTINUING LOW FREEZING LEVELS. QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY WITH READINGS NEAR FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING AS ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINISHES AROUND SUNSET AS IT MOVES OFF THE COASTLINE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE NORTH. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. IT WILL FEEL MORE WINTERLIKE WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS IS POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM. WHILE THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP...THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST WITH ITS TRACK THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD STAY OFFSHORE. THE 00Z GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW RESEMBLES THE GFS SOLUTION. THE 00Z GGEM AND NAM HAVE COME IN LOOKING SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF...FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER. THE DIFERENCE`S IN TRACK APPEAR TO REVOLVE AROUND THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS AND NOW ECMWF ARE SLOWER IN CAPTURING THE SURFACE LOW AND THEREFORE ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK. THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAPTURE THE SURFACE LOW QUICKER RESULTING IN A FURTHER WEST TRACK. GIVEN THAT THIS EVENT WON`T UNFOLD UNTIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WE CHOOSE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS WILL BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH A COUPLE MORE TIMES BEFORE LOCKING INTO A SOLUTION. HAVING SAID THIS...PEOPLE TRAVELING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS AS THIS STORM HAS HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL. CIPS ANALOG PAGES SHOW SOME EVENTS SIMILAR TO THIS THAT HAVE YIELDED DOUBLE DIGIT SNOW. WHILE THIS IS A POSSIBLE SCENARIO...IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND LOCAL EM DSS SLIDE. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE MIDWEEK AS AN EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE MIDCOAST REGION NEAR IWI. LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WILL RAISE THE FLAGS AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THANKS FOR THE COLLABORATION. LONG TERM... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WIND AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA LEVELS AND POSSIBLY GALES DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EAST. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...LULOFS AVIATION...CANNON MARINE...CANNON/LULOFS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1029 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... --1025AM UPDATE-- MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP TIMING AS BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TURN INCREASINGLY TO LIQUID AS THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S. INSTABILITY IS ON THE INCREASE WITH EVIDENCE FROM MWN TEMPS NOW FALLING THROUGH THE MID TEENS AND SURFACE TEMPS AT PSM NEARING 50F. LATEST HRRR PROFILES SHOW LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS SURFACE-6KFT LAYER THAT ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS ONE DAY PREVIOUS...SO HAVE TONED DOWN THUNDER WORDING JUST A TAD...BUT HAVE KEPT IT IN AT THIS TIME. TEMPS LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED HERE. --826AM UPDATE-- HAVE TRENDED SNOWFALL DOWN JUST A TAD OVER NORTHERN AREAS BASED ON REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS RAIN /SEE HIE/. WEBCAM IN JACKMAN MAINE DOES REVEAL A COATING OF SNOW...AND EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO EVENTUALLY OCCUR FOR MOST AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS FROM TOPSHAM THROUGH WISCASSET SHOULD THIN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...WITH SPS ONGOING THROUGH 13Z LOOKING GOOD. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... HAVE ISSUED SPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AS PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES ALONG THE MIDCOAST REGION AND PORTIONS OF ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH SOME LIMITED CAPE IN THE SOUNDING OVER SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THIS REGION DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS SIMILAR TO WFO BOX GRIDS. THIS TIMING IS ALSO IN STEP WITH LATEST SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SMALL HAIL...NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY...BUT THERE IS THAT POSSIBILITY WITH CONTINUING LOW FREEZING LEVELS. QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY WITH READINGS NEAR FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING AS ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINISHES AROUND SUNSET AS IT MOVES OFF THE COASTLINE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE NORTH. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. IT WILL FEEL MORE WINTERLIKE WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS IS POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM. WHILE THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP...THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST WITH ITS TRACK THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD STAY OFFSHORE. THE 00Z GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW RESEMBLES THE GFS SOLUTION. THE 00Z GGEM AND NAM HAVE COME IN LOOKING SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF...FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER. THE DIFERENCE`S IN TRACK APPEAR TO REVOLVE AROUND THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS AND NOW ECMWF ARE SLOWER IN CAPTURING THE SURFACE LOW AND THEREFORE ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK. THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAPTURE THE SURFACE LOW QUICKER RESULTING IN A FURTHER WEST TRACK. GIVEN THAT THIS EVENT WON`T UNFOLD UNTIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WE CHOOSE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS WILL BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH A COUPLE MORE TIMES BEFORE LOCKING INTO A SOLUTION. HAVING SAID THIS...PEOPLE TRAVELING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS AS THIS STORM HAS HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL. CIPS ANALOG PAGES SHOW SOME EVENTS SIMILAR TO THIS THAT HAVE YIELDED DOUBLE DIGIT SNOW. WHILE THIS IS A POSSIBLE SCENARIO...IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND LOCAL EM DSS SLIDE. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE MIDWEEK AS AN EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE MIDCOAST REGION NEAR IWI. LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WILL RAISE THE FLAGS AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THANKS FOR THE COLLABORATION. LONG TERM... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WIND AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA LEVELS AND POSSIBLY GALES DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EAST. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...LULOFS AVIATION...CANNON MARINE...CANNON/LULOFS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
730 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A STRATUS DECK INTO MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO IN ITS WAKE. THIS AFTERNOON...AREAS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI AS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OVER PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE AND SRN DELTA COUNTIES AIDED BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THIN AND CELLULAR LOOK TO THESE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SUGGEST THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIDED ON COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE HIGH-RES CANADIAN WHICH HAD LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SPREAD WEAK LIFT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/FAR NORTH CWA. AS WINDS SHIFT WNW BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO -11C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO WRN UPPER MI AND THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES/ISOLD SHSN AS 85H TEMPS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE SHARPER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE LAKE INTO ONTARIO EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA ON SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 HAVE AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA SUN EVENING INTO EARLY SUN NIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCEMENT/EFFECT SNOW TO NW WIND SNOWBELTS. 850MB TEMPS ARE -10C TO -12C AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THEN DROP TO -13C TO -15C LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS TURN WLY BY 00Z TUE. MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...SO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MODELS DEPICT 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS SUN NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS DURING THE DAY MON. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S WHERE SNOW FALLS AND HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 30 N TO THE UPPER 30S SCENTRAL. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AND WILL MOVE ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS OR JUST S OF THE CWA AT THE SFC. FGEN FORCING AND WAA ALONG THE SLOPED FRONT WILL ASSIST IN PROVIDING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW BETWEEN 06Z AND 21Z TUE...MOST AREAS WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW IN 3-6 HOURS. MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW DUE TO PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT/FGEN/SHORTWAVE...DETAILS OF WHERE THE BEST SNOW FALL IS UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z/19 GFS IS FARTHER N AND KEEPS THE WI BORDER AREAS DRIEST (BUT STILL SEEING PRECIP) WHILE THE 00Z/19 ECMWF IS FARTHER S AND KEEPS THE NRN TIER DRIEST. THE 12Z/19 NAM COMES IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR PLACEMENT OF BEST PRECIP. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS AND BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS POINT. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE THE GREATEST SNOW FALLS...WHICH MAY BE DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND E...AND IF THAT FALLS IN 3-6 HOURS IT COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. SNOW LOOKS TO MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE DAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE FAR SCENTRAL. WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE WEEK...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE WED NIGHT-FRI TIME FRAME (DEPENDING ON MODEL). MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE THE BEST PRECIP (AROUND AN INCH OF QPF WITH AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR MAKING SNOW THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE) ALONG OR SE OF THE SERN BORDER OF THE CWA...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY TRENDING NW. A LOT OF VARIABLES AT PLAY FOR 5-6 DAYS OUT...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP CLOSELY MONITORING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. SOME LINGERING DIURNAL AND UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER AT CMX EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD GIVING MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO DIMINISH. A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL GIVE CEILINGS DROPPING BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAFS SITES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS FROM FALLING TOO LOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW FLURRIES/-SHSN BUT LIMITED MOISTURE GIVES LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY MAINLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS UNTIL E-NE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...KEC MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1250 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. INSTABILITY CUMULUS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE H5 LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. THE ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW IS STILL IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOWSHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURED FAIRLY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN THEN TO THE MID ATLANTIC. A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT 850 MB...TEMPERATURES WERE AS COLD AS -10 DEGREES C OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. A DISTURBANCE WAS SPREADING PCPN EASTWARD FROM COLORADO ACROSS KANSAS...WHICH WILL ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF MISSOURI. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THAT SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH BASED ON RECENT RAP AND HRRR FCSTS. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SINKING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA...SO HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. TONIGHT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL 850-500 MB MOISTURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD INITIALLY BE WEAK...BUT 700 MB OMEGA VALUES INCREASE ON SATURDAY. QPF VALUES WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW APPEAR POSSIBLE. PCPN TYPE COULD BE MOSTLY SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON WET BULB TEMPERATURES FROM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 40 NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH POOR MIXING DUE TO GENERALLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MILDER AIR BACK IN FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD... SHOWING A 500 MB RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THAT RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD EASTWARD...BUT FLATTENS AS IS DOES SO THROUGH MONDAY. BY THAT TIME...A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AN GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE MID AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE BULK OF PCPN TO OUR SOUTH. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WITH CUMULUS INCREASING MULTIPLE BKN CLOUD LAYERS THIS AFTERNOON FL035-050 AND FL080-100. THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOWSHOWERS...HOWEVER DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS. LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOK FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AS THE H5 LOW EXPANDS OVER IOWA. DO MENTION LOWERING CIGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AND LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES AT KOFK AND KOMA AFTER 11Z. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20KTS DECREASING TO UNDER 10KTS TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASING AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING 10 TO 20KTS AND GUSTY. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
644 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURED FAIRLY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN THEN TO THE MID ATLANTIC. A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT 850 MB...TEMPERATURES WERE AS COLD AS -10 DEGREES C OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. A DISTURBANCE WAS SPREADING PCPN EASTWARD FROM COLORADO ACROSS KANSAS...WHICH WILL ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF MISSOURI. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THAT SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH BASED ON RECENT RAP AND HRRR FCSTS. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SINKING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA...SO HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. TONIGHT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL 850-500 MB MOISTURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD INITIALLY BE WEAK...BUT 700 MB OMEGA VALUES INCREASE ON SATURDAY. QPF VALUES WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW APPEAR POSSIBLE. PCPN TYPE COULD BE MOSTLY SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON WET BULB TEMPERATURES FROM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 40 NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH POOR MIXING DUE TO GENERALLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MILDER AIR BACK IN FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD... SHOWING A 500 MB RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THAT RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD EASTWARD...BUT FLATTENS AS IS DOES SO THROUGH MONDAY. BY THAT TIME...A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AN GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE MID AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE BULK OF PCPN TO OUR SOUTH. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SITES THROUGH THE MORNING AS A SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI BUT THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURED FAIRLY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN THEN TO THE MID ATLANTIC. A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN ANTICYLONE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT 850 MB...TEMPERATURES WERE AS COLD AS -10 DEGREES C OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. A DISTURBANCE WAS SPREADING PCPN EASTWARD FROM COLORADO ACROSS KANSAS...WHICH WILL ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF MISSOURI. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THAT SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH BASED ON RECENT RAP AND HRRR FCSTS. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SINKING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA...SO HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. TONIGHT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL 850-500 MB MOISTURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD INITIALLY BE WEAK...BUT 700 MB OMEGA VALUES INCREASE ON SATURDAY. QPF VALUES WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW APPEAR POSSIBLE. PCPN TYPE COULD BE MOSTLY SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON WET BULB TEMPERATURES FROM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 40 NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH POOR MIXING DUE TO GENERALLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MILDER AIR BACK IN FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD... SHOWING A 500 MB RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THAT RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD EASTWARD...BUT FLATTENS AS IS DOES SO THROUGH MONDAY. BY THAT TIME...A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AN GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE MID AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE BULK OF PCPN TO OUR SOUTH. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH 18Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
631 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY. A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 630 AM FRI...FAIRLY DENSE CIRRUS DECK STREAMING THROUGH E NC EARLY THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NC AND SHOULD MOVE OFF NC COAST THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. BACK DOOR COOL FRONT HAS ALL BUT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CRYSTAL COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOW TD`S. LL THICKNESS VALS ON PAR WITH WARMER MOS GUID IN MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW/MID 70S. NE WINDS OVER THE OBX AND SOUND COUNTIES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S HERE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...HAVE INC LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT AS MODELS ARE FASTER WITH BRINGING IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND FAR SRN ZONES AS MODEL GUID HAS SPED UP WITH APPROACHING LOW PRES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 250 AM FRI... LOW PRES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...OOZ MDLS ARE NOW MORE SIMILAR WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOW PRES CROSSING AREA. LOOKS A BIT FASTER NOW WITH MAIN IMPACTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE IN CVRG THRU THE DAY SAT AND HAVE POPS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING RANGING FROM LIKELY INLAND TO CAT COAST AS LOW TRACKS RIGHT NEAR CST. THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE LATER SAT NIGHT AND SHLD SEE RAIN BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HIGHS SAT WILL RANGE FROM UPR 50S NW/N WHERE NE FLOW EXPECTED TO 60S FURTHER S AND E WHERE SOME ONSHORE WINDS LIKELY. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S WELL INLAND UPR 40S/LOWER 50S BEACHES. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH DEPARTING LOW SUNDAY HOWEVER UPR TRF IS STILL APPROACHING SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER RAINFALL WILL NOT BE VERY HEAVY SUNDAY. AS THE UPR TRF CROSSES SUN NIGHT LINGERING RAIN SHLD END FROM W TO E. MUCH COOLER THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY NW WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW...HIGHS SUN IN THE 50S WITH LOWS SUN NIGHT 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S BEACHES. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER TO BEGIN THE WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 BEACHES MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF FROST INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL WARM UP MID WEEK AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND SLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM FRI...WIDESPREAD CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THOUGH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION. THESE HIGHER CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NE TODAY THEN LIGHT/VAR TONIGHT. CLOUDS INC OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT LOW. LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 250 AM FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB VFR DEVELOPING SAT AND CONT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES TRACKS NE NEAR CST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CIGS. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS HOWEVER SOME LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER ESPCLY THRU SUN EVENING. VFR EXPECTED MON THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 630 AM FRI...UPDATE TO ISSUE SCA FOR PAMLICO AND SOUTHERN WATERS AS NE SURGE IS MODERATELY STRONG WITH GUSTS B/T 25-30 KT CURRENTLY. HRRR DOING A GOOD JOB CAPTURING THE SURGE AND BASED MORNING FCST ON THIS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LONG PERIOD (14-16 SEC) SWELL CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT PERIOD THIS MORNING WITH SEAS 3-5 FT CONTINUING. BACK DOOR COOL FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE E NC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS 15-25 KT OCCURRING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS AS SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SURGE IN WINDS SUPERIMPOSED ON THE CONTINUED LONG PERIOD NE SWELL ENERGY. OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL AFFLICT REST OF THE OUTER WATERS THOUGH NOT ENOUGH DURATION TO ISSUE SCA ATTM. THE NE SURGE WILL PEAK THIS MORNING AND THEN VEER MORE EASTERLY AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AND BECOME LIGHT/VBL TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT. LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 250 AM FRI...LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE ALONG CST LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT THEN DEPART TO THE NE SLOWLY SUN INTO MON. WITH LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR CNTRL/SRN WTRS WIND DIR WILL BE TRICKY LATER SAT AND SAT EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME SIGNIF DIR CHANGES. FOR NOW SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS THRU SAT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. AS LOW DEPARTS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WIND DIR WILL BECOME MORE N TO NW AND INCREASE A BIT TO 15 TO 25 KTS. THESEWINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT OR SO SEAS MAINLY SUNDAY OVER CNTRL/NRN WTRS. WNW WINDS REMAIN GUSTY IN WAKE OF LOW MON AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W...SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 6 FT OVER OUTER WATERS THRU MON. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUE AS HIGH BUILDS OVER...WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152- 154-156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TL NEAR TERM...TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...RF/SK AVIATION...RF/TL MARINE...RF/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AND TRACK SE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING INDICATED VERY DEEP MIXING TODAY...WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (ESSENTIALLY DRY ADIABATIC) AS HIGH AS 12KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE. DECOUPLING AFTER 00Z HAS QUICKLY SET IN...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KNOTS...AND A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES. THERE IS AN OBVIOUS WSW-TO-ENE BOUNDARY ON KILN RADAR...NOW APPROACHING THE WILMINGTON AREA. WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY HAVE SHIFTED (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) TO THE NORTHWEST. WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED...AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH NOTHING TO SHOW FOR IT ON ANY OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. VIRGA (WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND) WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...THOUGH RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA COMING IN LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EITHER WAY...AT THIS POINT...IT IS ESSENTIALLY A ZERO-IMPACT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ROUGHLY ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALLOWING FOR A BIGGER DROP THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR THE ILN CWA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW TO OPEN UP AND DROP SE THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP MIXING HAS LED TO GUSTY WINDS AND DRIER AIR. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH...ALONG WITH RH VALUES RH VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT. THESE VALUES ALONG WITH 10 HOUR FUEL VALUES OF 5 TO 7 PERCENT HAS PLACED THE REGION IN RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING THRU 8 PM...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND RH VALUES START TO COME UP. DIURNAL CU FIELD EVIDENT ON SATL IMGRY...THICKEST OVER THE EAST... WHERE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED. THESE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. AFTER THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE LEFT OVER PV WILL START TO CLOSE OFF AND FORM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER IOWA. GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HERE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF PROGRESSION OF THE LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER FORECASTED AT THE SURFACE. AS OF CURRENT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN PROGRESSING THE LOW TO QUICKLY TO THE EAST WHILE THE NAM AND EURO HOLD THE LOW BACK FOR SLIGHTLY LONGER. GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN THAT IS INITIALLY FORECASTED TO SET UP HAVE TRENDED THE GRIDS TO THE SLOWER EURO/ NAM SOLUTION. FOR FRIDAY AM EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FORECASTED. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCE OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTH. HAVE EXPANDED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA GIVEN THE UPPER LOW EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE (PWATS AROUND 0.40"). BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS REMAINED HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GENERAL SOLUTION APPEARS FOR MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THERMAL PROFILES FOR SATURDAY WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ALL SNOW AND ALL RAIN AT TIMES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL DICTATE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM. THIS REGIME WILL FEATURE LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE PERIOD ALLOWING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR SUNDAY...A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE ILN AREA. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES MONDAY WHEN THE LOW WILL BE TRACKING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION ON TUESDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH NEAR A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ALIGNED ALONG A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. A COLD FRONT SAGGING TOWARD THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THAT SCENARIO DUE TO MODEL TIMING INCONSISTENCY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S. WARM ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BOOST READINGS TO NEAR NORMAL 50S ON TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALTHOUGH A FEW LOWER VFR CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST AT KCMH AND KLCK AND THE LIGHTEST AT KCVG AND KLUK. HAVE WIND GUSTS IN ALL OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KCVG AND KLUK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WENT WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH HOLDS PRECIPTIATION OFF UNTIL SATURDAY AND THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION IN AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SOME IFR VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 .DISCUSSION... 06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AT MOST TAF SITES. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. CHANCES TOO LOW IN SOME PLACES AND/OR SOME TIMES FOR MENTION IN TAF. HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS IN SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/ UPDATE... INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. DISCUSSION... SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARD ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS 4 AM TO NOON ON FRIDAY. BEFORE 4 AM TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ON THE 850 MB FRONT SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG OR SEVERE LIMITS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND AFFECT MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A MANGUM TO PAULS VALLEY TO DURANT LINE. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THESE STORMS FORMING JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DUE TO SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MUCAPE 500-2000 J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 45-55 KT...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELLS WOULD RESULT SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. SOME HAILSTONES MAY BE NEAR THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. A FEW REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH COULD OCCUR AS WELL...BUT IS LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. NO TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. STORMS MAY FIRST FORM NEAR THE ALTUS...HOBART...LAWTON... OR FREDERICK AREAS IN THE 4 TO 7 AM TIME FRAME THEN MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST...PERHAPS ORGANIZING INTO A CLUSTER OR LINE. NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT...BUT SOME REPORTS OF HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE. MOST STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY AND COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALL DURING THE DAY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY FORM BEHIND THE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. MBS PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/ DISCUSSION... 0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION... VFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... SOME MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT SOME SITES. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH BEST CHANCE BEING FRIDAY MORNING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/ DISCUSSION... RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE RED RIVER TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY SATURDAY AS DRY COOLER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING MAY SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN MONDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S. LEANED TOWARD MOS GUIDANCE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO HAVE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AS GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 46 53 33 56 / 20 40 10 0 HOBART OK 44 52 31 57 / 40 40 10 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 49 59 37 58 / 40 70 10 0 GAGE OK 36 47 25 55 / 20 30 10 0 PONCA CITY OK 40 50 28 55 / 10 50 10 0 DURANT OK 52 62 40 58 / 20 70 40 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>020. TX...NONE. && $$ 17/25/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF SPELL OF CHILLY CONDITIONS...BUT WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT...FOLLOWED BY AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE BRINGING MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... DIURNAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT...WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM...HAS HELPED TO BLOSSOM SCT-BKN...HIGH-BASED CU AND STRATO CU ACRS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN. THICKER...LAYERED CLOUDS /JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK/ WERE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT...ALBEIT GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS OF PENN. THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL BRING UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AS THEY HEAD QUICKLY OFF TO THE ESE ACROSS THE SUSQ`S MIDDLE AND WEST BRANCH COMMUNITIES...AND OVER THE WESTERN POCONOS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...BUT LG SCALE FORCING AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB QVEC CONV FIELDS IS VERY WEAK...SO LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS VERY MINIMAL. THE BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE NORTHERN MTNS...AND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE BASICALLY VOID OF QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS INDICATED TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE RT 6 CORRIDOR IN NRN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT SCHC POPS /15-20 PERCENT/ ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 30 POPS OVER THE NORTH EXPECT THE CURRENT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO PEAK OUT MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30KT RANGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BELT OF 40-45KT 800 MB WINDS WILL EXIT EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BY 19Z...SO THE PEAK GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE SHORTLY. TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THEIR FCST MAX VALUES...RANGING FROM THE L-M40S OVR THE NRN MTNS...TO AROUND 60F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS INTO PA TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS THE LOWEST SEEN IN SOME TIME...RANGING FROM THE L20S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE L30S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PWAT AIR MASS NOSING INTO PA SHOULD ENSURE A DRY SATURDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN PA. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF 12Z GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF DATA STILL SUGGESTS A BIT OF LIGHT...WET SNOW/RAIN SPREADING INTO THE SRN TIER COUNTIES OF PENN BY THE AFTN HOURS ASSOC WITH A LEAD SHOT OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...TO THE EAST OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY...AND NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVR THE S APPALACHIANS. BLENDED QPF SUGGESTS A LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IS POSS OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET/BEDFORD CO BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHC OF MEASURABLE ACCUM ELSEWHERE AT ELEVATION BLO 1700 FT MSL. EARLY SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY SHOULD FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS /ESP SOUTH/ WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S-M40S /OR -5 TO -10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON BEHIND US...THE COMPLACENCY OF A RATHER MILD WINTER MAY HAVE SET IN WITH AN TASTE OF LATE-SPRING WARMTH/60-70+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES ALREADY OBSERVED IN MOST PLACES ACROSS PA. BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOTHER NATURE MAY BE REMINDING US OF THE HIGHLY VOLATILE TEMPERATURE AND SENSIBLE WEATHER SWINGS THAT SPRINGTIME CAN DELIVER. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING TOWARD A MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST THAT WILL SUPPORT A STRONGLY DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS. BULK OF 00Z FRIDAY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE PIECE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST WILL BREAK OFF AND LIFT THRU PA SAT EVENING...PRODUCING THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL THREATEN PRIMARILY SE PA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. GEFS PLUMES SHOWING WIDELY VARYING AMTS BASED ON EXACT SFC LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...WARNING TYPE AMTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES APPEAR UNLIKELY BASED ON 00Z GEFS PROBS AS WELL AS THE LATEST OPER ECMWF/CANADIAN RUNS. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WHILE NARROWING TO A CERTAIN DEGREE...STILL RESULT IN A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CONFIDENCE/RISK HAS INCREASED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN AN INCREASE IN POPS TO LKLY OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION IS HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE MODELS...THE FCST DETAILS REMAIN VERY IN QUESTION WITH COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS (TEMPS/PTYPES) AND ELEVATION DEPENDENCY WITH SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F /ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/...NOT TO MENTION TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS/WARM GROUND TEMPS GIVEN THE RECENT MILD SPELL MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GRASS AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THUS MITIGATING IMPACTS TO SOME EXTENT. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE-SEASON SNOW EVENTS IN CENTRAL PA. OVERALL WE HAVE STARTED TO HEDGE THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE SNOW VS. RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ODDS OF ACCUMULATION TRENDING HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND BRISK/GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE LOW (NOR`EASTER?) AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE MARITIMES... WITH SNOW SHOWERS LKLY OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE NICELY INTO THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. DRY WX MON NGT-TUE IS FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES LATER TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGIONAL AIRFIELDS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BRING SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS OF PENN THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND KBFD /WITH SHORT-LIVED LOCAL REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE THERE - BUT PROB LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN TAF/. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKIES FILLED WITH A BKN LAYER OF HIGH-BASED CU OR ALTOCU ELSEWHERE. THE BIGGER STORY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WINDS THE GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH IN MOST PLACES...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH THROUGH 21Z. SOME HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN FROM KJST-KAOO/KUNV-KMDT. THIS ARE WILL BE BENEATH A BELT OF 40-45 KT WINDS UP AT AROUND 4000 FT AGL. THE PEAK GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THIS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS SLIDES OFF INTO EASTER PENN AND THE DEPTH OF VERTICAL MOMENTUM MIXING DECREASES A LITTLE. AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING...SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH QUICKLY WANE AS DIURNAL HEATING DIMINISHES. MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT VFR CONTINUES ELSEWHERE. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE FROM SW-NE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH BORDERLINE MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHOF KJST AFTER 19Z. OUTLOOK... SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS SPREAD SW-NE ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT SNOW BECOMES LIKELY SW LATE. SUN-SUN NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING /ESP SOUTH AND EAST / WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. MON...QUITE BREEZY. RESTRICTIONS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR TO BRIEF MVFR ELSEWHERE. TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW MTNS. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE. && .FIRE WEATHER... AFTER COLLABORATION WITH PA FIRE MANAGERS THE ASSESSMENT IS THAT FUELS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST AFTER RECENT RAINS AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO DRY OUT. THUS...NO RED FLAG ISSUANCE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY AND FAST SPREAD IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW RH...BUT NOT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
116 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF SPELL OF CHILLY CONDITIONS...BUT WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT...FOLLOWED BY AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE BRINGING MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DIURNAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT...WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM...HAS HELPED TO BLOSSOM SCT-BKN...HIGH-BASED CU AND STRATO CU ACRS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN. THICKER...LAYERED CLOUDS /JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK/ WERE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT...ALBEIT GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS OF PENN. THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL BRING UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AS THEY HEAD QUICKLY OFF TO THE ESE ACROSS THE SUSQ`S MIDDLE AND WEST BRANCH COMMUNITIES...AND OVER THE WESTERN POCONOS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...BUT LG SCALE FORCING AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB QVEC CONV FIELDS IS VERY WEAK...SO LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS VERY MINIMAL. THE BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE NORTHERN MTNS...AND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE BASICALLY VOID OF QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS INDICATED TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE RT 6 CORRIDOR IN NRN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT SCHC POPS /15-20 PERCENT/ ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 30 POPS OVER THE NORTH EXPECT THE CURRENT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO PEAK OUT MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30KT RANGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BELT OF 40-45KT 800 MB WINDS WILL EXIT EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BY 19Z...SO THE PEAK GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE SHORTLY. TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THEIR FCST MAX VALUES...RANGING FROM THE L-M40S OVR THE NRN MTNS...TO AROUND 60F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS INTO PA TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS THE LOWEST SEEN IN SOME TIME...RANGING FROM THE L20S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE L30S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PWAT AIR MASS NOSING INTO PA SHOULD ENSURE A DRY SATURDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN PA. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF 12Z GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF DATA STILL SUGGESTS A BIT OF LIGHT...WET SNOW/RAIN SPREADING INTO THE SRN TIER COUNTIES OF PENN BY THE AFTN HOURS ASSOC WITH A LEAD SHOT OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...TO THE EAST OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY...AND NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVR THE S APPALACHIANS. BLENDED QPF SUGGESTS A LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IS POSS OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET/BEDFORD CO BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHC OF MEASURABLE ACCUM ELSEWHERE AT ELEVATION BLO 1700 FT MSL. EARLY SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY SHOULD FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS /ESP SOUTH/ WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S-M40S /OR -5 TO -10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON BEHIND US...THE COMPLACENCY OF A RATHER MILD WINTER MAY HAVE SET IN WITH AN TASTE OF LATE-SPRING WARMTH/60-70+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES ALREADY OBSERVED IN MOST PLACES ACROSS PA. BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOTHER NATURE MAY BE REMINDING US OF THE HIGHLY VOLATILE TEMPERATURE AND SENSIBLE WEATHER SWINGS THAT SPRINGTIME CAN DELIVER. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING TOWARD A MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST THAT WILL SUPPORT A STRONGLY DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS. BULK OF 00Z FRIDAY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE PIECE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST WILL BREAK OFF AND LIFT THRU PA SAT EVENING...PRODUCING THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL THREATEN PRIMARILY SE PA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. GEFS PLUMES SHOWING WIDELY VARYING AMTS BASED ON EXACT SFC LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...WARNING TYPE AMTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES APPEAR UNLIKELY BASED ON 00Z GEFS PROBS AS WELL AS THE LATEST OPER ECMWF/CANADIAN RUNS. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WHILE NARROWING TO A CERTAIN DEGREE...STILL RESULT IN A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CONFIDENCE/RISK HAS INCREASED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN AN INCREASE IN POPS TO LKLY OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION IS HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE MODELS...THE FCST DETAILS REMAIN VERY IN QUESTION WITH COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS (TEMPS/PTYPES) AND ELEVATION DEPENDENCY WITH SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F /ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/...NOT TO MENTION TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS/WARM GROUND TEMPS GIVEN THE RECENT MILD SPELL MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GRASS AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THUS MITIGATING IMPACTS TO SOME EXTENT. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE-SEASON SNOW EVENTS IN CENTRAL PA. OVERALL WE HAVE STARTED TO HEDGE THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE SNOW VS. RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ODDS OF ACCUMULATION TRENDING HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND BRISK/GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE LOW (NOR`EASTER?) AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE MARITIMES... WITH SNOW SHOWERS LKLY OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE NICELY INTO THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. DRY WX MON NGT-TUE IS FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES LATER TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGIONAL AIRFIELDS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BRING SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS OF PENN THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND KBFD /WITH SHORT-LIVED LOCAL REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE THERE - BUT PROB LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN TAF/. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKIES FILLED WITH A BKN LAYER OF HIGH-BASED CU OR ALTOCU ELSEWHERE. THE BIGGER STORY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WINDS THE GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH IN MOST PLACES...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH THROUGH 21Z. SOME HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN FROM KJST-KAOO/KUNV-KMDT. THIS ARE WILL BE BENEATH A BELT OF 40-45 KT WINDS UP AT AROUND 4000 FT AGL. THE PEAK GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THIS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS SLIDES OFF INTO EASTER PENN AND THE DEPTH OF VERTICAL MOMENTUM MIXING DECREASES A LITTLE. AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING...SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH QUICKLY WANE AS DIURNAL HEATING DIMINISHES. MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT VFR CONTINUES ELSEWHERE. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE FROM SW-NE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH BORDERLINE MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHOF KJST AFTER 19Z. OUTLOOK... SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS SPREAD SW-NE ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT SNOW BECOMES LIKELY SW LATE. SUN-SUN NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING /ESP SOUTH AND EAST / WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. MON...QUITE BREEZY. RESTRICTIONS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR TO BRIEF MVFR ELSEWHERE. TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW MTNS. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE. && .FIRE WEATHER... AFTER COLLABORATION WITH PA FIRE MANAGERS THE ASSESSMENT IS THAT FUELS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST /AOA 10 PERCENT/ AFTER RECENT RAINS AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO DRY OUT. THUS...NO RED FLAG ISSUANCE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY AND FAST SPREAD IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW RH...BUT NOT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR FIRE WEATHER...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1213 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT WITH AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE LIKELY ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THIS UPDATE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BLANKETS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN AT NOON...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF THE STATE...WHERE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE...DUAL-LAYERED STRATOCU DECK WAS PRESSING SOUTH AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT. DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD YIELD INCREASING CU AND THE CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS NRN PENN. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...BUT LG SCALE FORCING AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB QVEC CONV FIELDS IS VERY WEAK. THE BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE NORTHERN MTNS. THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE BASICALLY VOID OF QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS INDICATED TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE RT 6 CORRIDOR IN NRN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT IN COMPLETELY FOLLOWING THIS DRY...SHORT RANGE/HIGH RES GUIDANCE THOUGH...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE 88D LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXPANDING A BIT ACROSS THE NRN MTNS WHILE DRIFTING QUICKLY TO THE ESE. THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT SCHC POPS /15-20 PERCENT/ ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 30 POPS OVER THE NORTH EXPECT THE CURRENT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO INCREASE BY ANOTHER 5 KTS OR SO...AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT READILY MIX TO THE SFC WITHIN THE DEEP BLYR. BUKFIT SOUNDINGS AND HRRR SUPPORT WGUSTS DURING THE AFTN OF 30-35KTS...AND WE/RE CURRENTLY SEEING THESE TYPE OF GUSTS AT KUNV...KDUJ AND KJST/. PEAK WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY JUST UNDER ADVISORY OF G40KT. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE L40S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS INTO PA TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS THE LOWEST IN SOME TIME...RANGING FROM THE L20S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE L30S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS NOSING INTO PA SHOULD ENSURE A DRY SATURDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...BULK OF GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS A BIT OF LGT SNOW/RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE S TIER COUNTIES BY AFTN ASSOC WITH DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVR THE S APPALACHIANS. BLENDED QPF SUGGESTS A LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IS POSS OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET/BEDFORD CO BY EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHC OF MEASURABLE ACCUM ELSEWHERE. EARLY SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY SHOULD FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS /ESP SOUTH/ WITH MAX TEMPS MID 30S-M40S OR -5 TO -10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON BEHIND US...THE COMPLACENCY OF A RATHER MILD WINTER MAY HAVE SET IN WITH AN TASTE OF LATE-SPRING WARMTH/60-70+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES ALREADY OBSERVED IN MOST PLACES ACROSS PA. BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOTHER NATURE MAY BE REMINDING US OF THE HIGHLY VOLATILE TEMPERATURE AND SENSIBLE WEATHER SWINGS THAT SPRINGTIME CAN DELIVER. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING TOWARD A MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST THAT WILL SUPPORT A STRONGLY DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS. BULK OF 00Z FRIDAY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE PIECE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST WILL BREAK OFF AND LIFT THRU PA SAT EVENING...PRODUCING THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL THREATEN PRIMARILY SE PA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. GEFS PLUMES SHOWING WIDELY VARYING AMTS BASED ON EXACT SFC LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...WARNING TYPE AMTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES APPEAR UNLIKELY BASED ON 00Z GEFS PROBS AS WELL AS THE LATEST OPER ECMWF/CANADIAN RUNS. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WHILE NARROWING TO A CERTAIN DEGREE...STILL RESULT IN A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CONFIDENCE/RISK HAS INCREASED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN AN INCREASE IN POPS TO LKLY OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION IS HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE MODELS...THE FCST DETAILS REMAIN VERY IN QUESTION WITH COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS (TEMPS/PTYPES) AND ELEVATION DEPENDENCY WITH SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F /ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/...NOT TO MENTION TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS/WARM GROUND TEMPS GIVEN THE RECENT MILD SPELL MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GRASS AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THUS MITIGATING IMPACTS TO SOME EXTENT. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE-SEASON SNOW EVENTS IN CENTRAL PA. OVERALL WE HAVE STARTED TO HEDGE THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE SNOW VS. RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ODDS OF ACCUMULATION TRENDING HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND BRISK/GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE LOW (NOR`EASTER?) AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE MARITIMES... WITH SNOW SHOWERS LKLY OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE NICELY INTO THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. DRY WX MON NGT-TUE IS FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES LATER TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGIONAL AIRFIELDS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BRING SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS OF PENN THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND KBFD /WITH SHORT-LIVED LOCAL REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE THERE - BUT PROB LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN TAF/. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKIES FILLING WITH HIGH-BASED CU OR ALTOCU ELSEWHERE. THE BIGGER STORY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WINDS THE GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH IN MOST PLACES...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH THROUGH 21Z. SOME HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45 MPH ARE LIKELY FROM KJST- KAOO- KMDT. AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH QUICKLY WANE. MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT VFR CONTINUES ELSEWHERE. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS SPREAD SW-NE ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT SNOW BECOMES LIKELY SW LATE. SUN-SUN NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING /ESP SOUTH AND EAST / WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. MON...QUITE BREEZY. RESTRICTIONS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR TO BRIEF MVFR ELSEWHERE. TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW MTNS. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE. && .FIRE WEATHER... AFTER COLLABORATION WITH PA FIRE MANAGERS THE ASSESSMENT IS THAT FUELS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST AFTER RECENT RAINS AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAY TO DRY OUT. THUS...NO RED FLAG ISSUANCE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY AND FAST SPREAD IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW RH...BUT NOT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1039 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT WITH AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE LIKELY ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BLANKETS ALL OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER...WHERE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE...DUAL-LAYERED STRATOCU DECK WAS PRESSING SOUTH AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT. DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD YIELD INCREASING CU AND THE CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS NRN PENN. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN...BUT LG SCALE FORCING AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB QVEC CONV FIELDS IS VERY WEAK. THE BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE NORTHERN MTNS. LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE BASICALLY DRY FOR QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH SHOWERS INDICATED TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE RT 6 CORRIDOR IN NRN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE ALL POPS FROM THE FCST...GIVEN THE FACT THAT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE 88D LOOP /WHERE THE HRRR IS TOTALLY DRY ATTM/. SO...WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT SCHC POPS /15-20 PERCENT/ ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 30 POPS OVER THE NORTH EXPECT A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS BY MIDDAY...AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT READILY MIX TO THE SFC WITHIN THE DEEPENING BLYR. BUKFIT SOUNDINGS AND HRRR SUPPORT WGUSTS DURING THE AFTN OF 30-35KTS. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE L40S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS INTO PA TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS THE LOWEST IN SOME TIME...RANGING FROM THE L20S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE L30S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS NOSING INTO PA SHOULD ENSURE A DRY SATURDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...BULK OF GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS A BIT OF LGT SNOW/RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE S TIER COUNTIES BY AFTN ASSOC WITH DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVR THE S APPALACHIANS. BLENDED QPF SUGGESTS A LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IS POSS OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET/BEDFORD CO BY EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHC OF MEASURABLE ACCUM ELSEWHERE. EARLY SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY SHOULD FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS /ESP SOUTH/ WITH MAX TEMPS MID 30S-M40S OR -5 TO -10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON BEHIND US...THE COMPLACENCY OF A RATHER MILD WINTER MAY HAVE SET IN WITH AN TASTE OF LATE-SPRING WARMTH/60-70+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES ALREADY OBSERVED IN MOST PLACES ACROSS PA. BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOTHER NATURE MAY BE REMINDING US OF THE HIGHLY VOLATILE TEMPERATURE AND SENSIBLE WEATHER SWINGS THAT SPRINGTIME CAN DELIVER. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING TOWARD A MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST THAT WILL SUPPORT A STRONGLY DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS. BULK OF 00Z FRIDAY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE PIECE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST WILL BREAK OFF AND LIFT THRU PA SAT EVENING...PRODUCING THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL THREATEN PRIMARILY SE PA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. GEFS PLUMES SHOWING WIDELY VARYING AMTS BASED ON EXACT SFC LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...WARNING TYPE AMTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES APPEAR UNLIKELY BASED ON 00Z GEFS PROBS AS WELL AS THE LATEST OPER ECMWF/CANADIAN RUNS. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WHILE NARROWING TO A CERTAIN DEGREE...STILL RESULT IN A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CONFIDENCE/RISK HAS INCREASED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN AN INCREASE IN POPS TO LKLY OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION IS HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE MODELS...THE FCST DETAILS REMAIN VERY IN QUESTION WITH COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS (TEMPS/PTYPES) AND ELEVATION DEPENDENCY WITH SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F /ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/...NOT TO MENTION TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS/WARM GROUND TEMPS GIVEN THE RECENT MILD SPELL MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GRASS AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THUS MITIGATING IMPACTS TO SOME EXTENT. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE-SEASON SNOW EVENTS IN CENTRAL PA. OVERALL WE HAVE STARTED TO HEDGE THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE SNOW VS. RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ODDS OF ACCUMULATION TRENDING HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND BRISK/GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE LOW (NOR`EASTER?) AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE MARITIMES... WITH SNOW SHOWERS LKLY OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE NICELY INTO THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. DRY WX MON NGT-TUE IS FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES LATER TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA...WITH AREA OF THICKER MID CLOUDS BEGINNING TO WORK ACROSS THE NY BORDER AT SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BRING SCT DIURNALLY- DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND KBFD /WITH SHORT-LIVED LOCAL REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE THERE - BUT PROB LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN TAF/. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKIES FILLING WITH CU ELSEWHERE. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WINDS PICKING UP...AS GUSTS RANGE FROM 15-25 MPH IN MOST PLACES...AND EVEN HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH LIKELY AT KJST- KMDT. AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH QUICKLY WANE. MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT VFR CONTINUES ELSEWHERE. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS SPREAD SW-NE ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT SNOW BECOMES LIKELY SW LATE. SUN-SUN NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING /ESP SOUTH AND EAST / WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. MON...QUITE BREEZY. RESTRICTIONS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR TO BRIEF MVFR ELSEWHERE. TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW MTNS. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE. && .FIRE WEATHER... AFTER COLLABORATION WITH PA FIRE MANAGERS THE ASSESSMENT IS THAT FUELS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST AFTER RECENT RAINS AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAY TO DRY OUT. THUS...NO RED FLAG ISSUANCE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY AND FAST SPREAD IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW RH...BUT NOT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
948 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND BRING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT 945 PM...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOW SW...LIKELY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY 1130 PM. NORTH OF THE FRONT...WEAK SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING...PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST TEMPS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. POPS APPEAR GENERALLY ON TRACK...SLIGHT TWEAKS ARE NEEDED. AT 8PM...KGSP RADAR INDICATED THAT THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN KGMU AND KAND...DRIVING TO THE SSW. A BAND OF FADING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM THE FOOTHILLS EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTH...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLIDE EAST FROM THE LAKELANDS TOWARDS THE MIDLANDS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS AND TEMPS TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AS OF 6 PM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...I WILL UPDATE POPS TO RECENT COMPOSITE RADAR. SO FAR...TWO THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER THE ESCARPMENT FROM HENDERSON TO THE POLK/RUTHERFORD COUNTY LINE. AS OF 2:30 PM SATURDAY...COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM AS UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AT AFD TIME...SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH WARM/WEDGE FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST ALONG OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE SC/NC STATE LINE. DAMMING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NC PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS. FIRST ITEM OF NOTE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS ACTUALLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING 250J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE UPSTATE...WITH RAP FORECASTING THAT TO DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A LINE OF CONVECTION /THOUGH NO CGS OBSERVED YET/ HAS DEVELOPED GENERALLY ALONG THE NC/TN STATE LINE AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST GA. AS THE UPPER LOW DIPS DOWN...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS MAY BRIEFLY COINCIDE WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS. DO NOT REALLY EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST...CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TO JUXTAPOSE TEMPERATURES VERSUS CLOUD COVER BUT FOR NOW BEST GUESS IS THAT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WILL BE SOLIDLY BELOW FREEZING...WITH FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS. FOR ASHEVILLE AND THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO WARM FOR FROST...BUT OVER THE LITTLE TENNESSEE SHOULD SEE LOWS DROP ENOUGH TO WARRANT FROST MENTION IN THE GRIDS. SINCE ALL BUT THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS HAD THEIR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM TURNED ON YESTERDAY...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE FIVE SOUTHWEST NC COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART...PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW...BUT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID...MODELS HAVE PERFORMED QUITE POORLY TODAY SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS IS PRETTY LOW GIVEN WE ARE TALKING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY MAY REMAIN ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DURING THE DAY...AND THEN BACK OVER TO SNOW IN THE EVENING. THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD INCH OR SO ACROSS MAINLY THE SMOKIES BUT COMBINED WITH SNOW PAST 00Z SUNDAY AS WE PUSH INTO THE SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH WPC SNOW FORECASTS. THIS IS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONFIDENCE LEVELS AND THE FACT THAT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SPS MENTION AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE THE HI-RES GUIDANCE TO REFINE THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT 230 PM SATURDAY...ON SUNDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN USA...AND A TROUGH RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN USA. A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WILL EXIT OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN PROGRESSES AND DEAMPLIFIES RESULTING IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...ON SUNDAY EVENING A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST. COLD MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS SPREADING WELL EAST OF THE TN BORDER. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS OF MOISTURE EVEN SPILLING OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN IN THOSE LOCATIONS. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR EAST OF THE TN BORDER ON MONDAY...BUT COLD MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN BORDER THROUGH THE DAY...FINALLY ENDING OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT SNOW TOTALS WILL NOT MEET ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA...AND THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE AT THE VERY HIGHEST MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY FEATURES DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...UNTIL ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE RIDGING ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. WITH PLANT LIFE AT AN ADVANCED STAGE DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES EARLIER IN THE MONTH...FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. FROST ADVISORIES ARE LESS CERTAIN...AS DRIER AIR MAY LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BY TUESDAY EVENING THE CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIME WILL HAVE HAPPENED...WITH THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND PUSHING THE SURFACE HIGH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDOWN. THAT SHOULD LEAVE US WITH A FAIRLY SPECTACULAR EARLY SPRING DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND TEMPS ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...SO CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. AFTER THAT...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOT HAD THE BEST CONTINUITY WITH THAT ONE...AND SHOW A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW ARE MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND NOW A COLD FRONT GETS MORE STRUNG OUT SW TO NE...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE TIMING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH...BUT THE MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT HAD IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. LOW LEVEL FORCING ALSO DIMINISHES AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHANCE RANGE BECAUSE OF THE MODEL FORCING TREND. THE GFS STILL BRINGS A PLUME OF WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS NE GA AND UPSTATE SC...ALONG WITH MODERATE SHEAR...SO THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED...AND WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME SEVERE STORMS ON THAT DAY JUST YET. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT...SO NEXT SATURDAY LOOKS QUIET AGAIN. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT 8PM...KGSP RADAR INDICATED THAT THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN KGMU AND KAND...DRIVING TO THE SSW. A BAND OF FADING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM THE FOOTHILLS EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTH...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLIDE EAST FROM THE LAKELANDS TOWARDS THE MIDLANDS. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS WERE LOCATED NORTH OF I-40. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. LOW CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY LIFTING TO VFR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE WITH ANY SHOWERS UNDER THE PASSING TROUGH. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-19Z 19-00Z KCLT HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% KGSP HIGH 85% HIGH 85% HIGH 81% HIGH 88% KAVL HIGH 100% MED 77% HIGH 83% MED 79% KHKY HIGH 84% HIGH 83% HIGH 88% MED 78% KGMU HIGH 85% HIGH 86% HIGH 90% HIGH 86% KAND HIGH 92% HIGH 82% HIGH 94% HIGH 94% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017. NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>070-502-504- 506>510. FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ051-052-058- 059-062-063. SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>003-005>007-011-012-019. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SBK NEAR TERM...NED/TDP SHORT TERM...JAT LONG TERM...JAT AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
804 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND BRING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT 8PM...KGSP RADAR INDICATED THAT THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN KGMU AND KAND...DRIVING TO THE SSW. A BAND OF FADING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM THE FOOTHILLS EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTH...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLIDE EAST FROM THE LAKELANDS TOWARDS THE MIDLANDS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS AND TEMPS TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AS OF 6 PM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...I WILL UPDATE POPS TO RECENT COMPOSITE RADAR. SO FAR...TWO THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER THE ESCARPMENT FROM HENDERSON TO THE POLK/RUTHERFORD COUNTY LINE. AS OF 2:30 PM SATURDAY...COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM AS UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AT AFD TIME...SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH WARM/WEDGE FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST ALONG OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE SC/NC STATE LINE. DAMMING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NC PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS. FIRST ITEM OF NOTE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS ACTUALLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING 250J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE UPSTATE...WITH RAP FORECASTING THAT TO DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A LINE OF CONVECTION /THOUGH NO CGS OBSERVED YET/ HAS DEVELOPED GENERALLY ALONG THE NC/TN STATE LINE AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST GA. AS THE UPPER LOW DIPS DOWN...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS MAY BRIEFLY COINCIDE WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS. DO NOT REALLY EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST...CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TO JUXTAPOSE TEMPERATURES VERSUS CLOUD COVER BUT FOR NOW BEST GUESS IS THAT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WILL BE SOLIDLY BELOW FREEZING...WITH FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS. FOR ASHEVILLE AND THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO WARM FOR FROST...BUT OVER THE LITTLE TENNESSEE SHOULD SEE LOWS DROP ENOUGH TO WARRANT FROST MENTION IN THE GRIDS. SINCE ALL BUT THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS HAD THEIR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM TURNED ON YESTERDAY...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE FIVE SOUTHWEST NC COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART...PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW...BUT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID...MODELS HAVE PERFORMED QUITE POORLY TODAY SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS IS PRETTY LOW GIVEN WE ARE TALKING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY MAY REMAIN ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DURING THE DAY...AND THEN BACK OVER TO SNOW IN THE EVENING. THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD INCH OR SO ACROSS MAINLY THE SMOKIES BUT COMBINED WITH SNOW PAST 00Z SUNDAY AS WE PUSH INTO THE SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH WPC SNOW FORECASTS. THIS IS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONFIDENCE LEVELS AND THE FACT THAT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SPS MENTION AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE THE HI-RES GUIDANCE TO REFINE THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT 230 PM SATURDAY...ON SUNDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN USA...AND A TROUGH RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN USA. A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WILL EXIT OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN PROGRESSES AND DEAMPLIFIES RESULTING IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...ON SUNDAY EVENING A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST. COLD MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS SPREADING WELL EAST OF THE TN BORDER. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS OF MOISTURE EVEN SPILLING OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN IN THOSE LOCATIONS. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR EAST OF THE TN BORDER ON MONDAY...BUT COLD MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN BORDER THROUGH THE DAY...FINALLY ENDING OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT SNOW TOTALS WILL NOT MEET ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA...AND THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE AT THE VERY HIGHEST MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY FEATURES DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...UNTIL ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE RIDGING ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. WITH PLANT LIFE AT AN ADVANCED STAGE DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES EARLIER IN THE MONTH...FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. FROST ADVISORIES ARE LESS CERTAIN...AS DRIER AIR MAY LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BY TUESDAY EVENING THE CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIME WILL HAVE HAPPENED...WITH THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND PUSHING THE SURFACE HIGH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDOWN. THAT SHOULD LEAVE US WITH A FAIRLY SPECTACULAR EARLY SPRING DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND TEMPS ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...SO CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. AFTER THAT...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOT HAD THE BEST CONTINUITY WITH THAT ONE...AND SHOW A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW ARE MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND NOW A COLD FRONT GETS MORE STRUNG OUT SW TO NE...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE TIMING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH...BUT THE MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT HAD IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. LOW LEVEL FORCING ALSO DIMINISHES AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHANCE RANGE BECAUSE OF THE MODEL FORCING TREND. THE GFS STILL BRINGS A PLUME OF WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS NE GA AND UPSTATE SC...ALONG WITH MODERATE SHEAR...SO THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED...AND WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME SEVERE STORMS ON THAT DAY JUST YET. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT...SO NEXT SATURDAY LOOKS QUIET AGAIN. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT 8PM...KGSP RADAR INDICATED THAT THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN KGMU AND KAND...DRIVING TO THE SSW. A BAND OF FADING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM THE FOOTHILLS EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTH...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLIDE EAST FROM THE LAKELANDS TOWARDS THE MIDLANDS. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS WERE LOCATED NORTH OF I-40. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. LOW CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY LIFTING TO VFR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE WITH ANY SHOWERS UNDER THE PASSING TROUGH. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z KCLT HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% KGSP HIGH 86% HIGH 85% HIGH 83% HIGH 88% KAVL HIGH 99% MED 78% HIGH 86% HIGH 81% KHKY HIGH 80% MED 67% HIGH 84% MED 75% KGMU HIGH 84% HIGH 89% HIGH 89% HIGH 90% KAND HIGH 93% HIGH 84% HIGH 88% HIGH 97% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017. NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>070-502-504- 506>510. FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ051-052-058- 059-062-063. SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>003-005>007-011-012-019. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SBK NEAR TERM...NED/TDP SHORT TERM...JAT LONG TERM...JAT AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
328 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION TONIGHT...TRACKING NE AND ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS JUST AFTER 00Z...BUT WITH THE LOW LEVELS STARTING OFF SO DRY...MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE STRONGER LIFT MOVES IN AND THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW PICKS UP BETWEEN 06-09Z. WILL RAISE POPS QUICKLY IN THAT PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SOUTH WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. POPS WILL RISE TO CATEGORICAL AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING POPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...AND A CHANGE TO SNOW MAY OCCUR IN SW VA AND THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE MOISTURE PULLS AWAY. POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE SHALLOW AND THIN NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...WHICH STAYS WELL BELOW THE -10C LEVEL...AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS WEAK. WILL LOWER POPS TO LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS LOW ELEVATIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT LEAVING THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES VERY COLD WITH HIGHS 40S TO LOWER 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BUT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES TO TRACE LOWER ELEVATIONS. NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BRIEF SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY MONDAY. ALSO SOME BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND NW WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING POSSIBLE IN ALL BUT EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND A COUPLE SW VA COUNTIES WHERE FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT STARTED YET. MONDAY SKIES CLEAR WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. HOWEVER MONDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY ALL AREAS AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY EASTERN TN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND ALL OF NE TN AND SW VA. TROUGH IN THE EAST MOVES OUT MONDAY NIGHT THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY AND SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE NEAR AVERAGE LOWER TO MID 60S. RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AT MID WEEK AND HIGHS WARM FURTHER TO MID 60S TO MID 70S. RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY MORE THURSDAY AS NEW SYSTEM DIVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE FRIDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 62 40 53 / 80 70 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 57 37 48 / 60 80 20 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 47 55 37 49 / 70 80 20 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 56 36 45 / 50 90 20 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/TD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
851 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .DISCUSSION...TEXT PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AS THEY WERE RUNNING TOO COLD AT THAT TIME. BASICALLY HAVE USED RUC13 DATA (WHICH IS WORKING OUT OK FOR NOW)...BUT THEN BLENDED THE MODEL MORE TOWARD FORECAST LOWS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...OVERALL TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR LOW WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT. DID ADJUST CLOUD COVER FOR GENERALLY DIMINISHING OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. LEFT REST OF FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW. && .MARINE...WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE FOR THE BAYS/WATERWAYS SINCE OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST FORECAST DATA SUPPORT THIS. SCA CONTINUES OFFSHORE. REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS WELL AS CLOUDS...WITH MAYBE SOME MID LEVEL CIGS AT KLRD (BUT MORE LIKELY SCATTERED). GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z...AND FOR THE MOST PART BE 11 KNOTS OR LESS BY THEN (KCRP ALWAYS A BIT HIGHER AS USUAL). WINDS BECOME MORE NE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERALL...NOT TOO MUCH GOING ON...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING SOME OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER BEING MET...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED IT. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND MAY CONTINUE A LITTLE PAST 00Z. INCLUDED 10 POPS WITH MENTION OF WX THROUGH 03Z FOR THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOLER AIR WILL SPILL INTO SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT DROPPING LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE COAST WHERE LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY AND SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR TOMORROW...BUT CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY CHILLY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE BAYS AND WATERWAYS...BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...PUTTING US BACK INTO RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL TRIGGER A FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S WEST OF I-37 ON TUESDAY THEN OVER THE REST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THAT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE COASTAL BEND BY MIDWEEK. MODELS INDICATE WEAK SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. MORE DRY AND COOL AIR COMES IN AFTER THIS FRONT...PULLING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO EASTER WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TIMING ON THESE MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 49 67 43 72 57 / 10 0 0 0 10 VICTORIA 44 65 38 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 10 LAREDO 46 67 44 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALICE 46 67 42 74 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 ROCKPORT 50 66 49 68 60 / 10 0 0 0 10 COTULLA 44 67 42 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 KINGSVILLE 48 67 44 74 55 / 10 0 0 0 0 NAVY CORPUS 52 66 52 69 60 / 10 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR. && $$ GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .DISCUSSION... FEATURES OF NOTE AT 3 PM WERE A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR AND EAST OF HOUSTON COUNTY...AND A COLD FRONT NEAR A LINE FROM TERRELL TO NEAR WACO. THE AIRMASS OVER SE TX HAS BEEN FAIRLY CAPPED ALL DAY...HOWEVER DO EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING AS THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. SOME HAVE ALREADY STARTED OVER TRINITY AND POLK COUNTIES NEAR WHERE THE GRAVITY WAVE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT. THE MODELS DIFFERED A BIT ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE DONE WELL SO FAR AND BOTH HAVE LESS COVERAGE THAN WAS EARLIER FORECAST. THE NAM12... ARW...NMM...AND TO AN EXTENT THE RAP13...ALSO AGREE WITH LESS COVERAGE. THE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFLUENT THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE SHEARING OUT SYSTEM IN MEXICO. DO EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO OCCUR AT LEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BECAUSE OF THIS...DECIDED TO GO WITH NO MORE THAN 50 PERCENT POPS FOR THE EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST SHOULD OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SE TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT LEAST ALONG THE COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. 40 && .MARINE... THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM...OR ONCE THE NORTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT ARRIVE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. GUSTS TO 30KT ARE A POSSIBILITY SAT MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND SWING BACK ONSHORE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND SEAS THEN BUILD INTO MIDWEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. 47 && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER MSUNNY SKIES. RH`S SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 27-32% RANGE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE MET, BUT MAY BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. 47 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/ AVIATION... CIGS ARE LIFTING INTO HIGHER END MVFR AND VFR TERRITORY...AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTN. MAY SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO CLL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE SE TX EARLY IN THE EVENING AND OFF THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE`S A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING MORE COVERAGE THAN SOME OF THE HIRES SOLNS - SOME OF WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE IMPACTING SE TX TAF SITES. ONE THING THAT IS DIFFERENT TODAY IS THAT WE`RE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING/INSTABILITY THAN WE`VE SEEN IN PAST DAYS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED. SHOULD SEE CIGS FILL BACK IN TO 900-1900 FEET POST FROPA...GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT THE COAST. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 62 42 63 40 / 50 10 0 0 0 HOUSTON (IAH) 57 66 46 66 41 / 50 20 10 0 0 GALVESTON (GLS) 62 68 53 65 51 / 60 30 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM... WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...40 AVIATION/MARINE...47
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .AVIATION... LOW CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME CHANCE EXISTS AT REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A PATCH OF MVFR CIGS MAY FILL BACK IN AT KLBB/KPVW LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING TO VFR BY DAYBREAK. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/ SHORT TERM... IR SATELLITE AND REGIONAL METARS AT 2 AM CLEARLY SHOWED THE COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED MOST OF THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 43 MPH IN DALHART. HRRR AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FRONT WHICH SHOULD CLEAR LUBBOCK BETWEEN 5 AM AND 6 AM. OF GREATER INTEREST IS THE RECENT BLOSSOMING OF LOW CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS STRATUS IS TIED TO A ZONAL LL MOISTURE AXIS IN ERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT WHERE THIS AXIS INTERSECTS THE FRONT. UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THIS MOISTURE IS ALREADY BREEDING ELEVATED CAPE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS OF 500-1000 J/KG PER THE RUC MESOANALYSIS. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER...RICHER GULF MOISTURE CURLING ISENTROPICALLY N-NEWD FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR /AIDED BY A VEERING LLJ/ WILL ONLY IMPROVE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK... ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM. BOOSTED PRE-7 AM POPS TO 50 PERCENT IN CHILDRESS COUNTY BEFORE TAPERING THESE BACK THEREAFTER AS AMPLE W-NW STEERING WINDS CARRY THIS CONVECTION FARTHER DOWN THE RED RIVER. KEPT LOW T-STORM CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TO CLEAR THESE AREAS...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR NEXT TO NIL AS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR WEDGES SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON BRISK NELY WINDS. UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES...POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS STILL FAVORED TO EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. RAP SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SATURATION AT TIMES FOR SOME DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-27...SO MENTION OF DRIZZLE WAS INSERTED FOR THIS FAVORABLY MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. OTHERWISE... STRATUS IS FAVORED TO THIN AND ERODE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON IN CONTRAST TO THE NAM WHICH KEEPS LOW CLOUDS INTACT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. PROVIDED THIS CLEARING OCCURS... THE SETUP SHOULD BE MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR WELL-BELOW NORMAL LOWS AREA WIDE AS WINDS TREND LIGHT WITHIN THE CENTER OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE. NUDGED THE INHERITED LOW TEMPS EVEN LOWER TONIGHT GIVEN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND AN OVERALL LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE SINCE LATE FEBRUARY...OUR OFFICE DOES NOT ISSUE SPRING FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL WE ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LAST FREEZE DATES WHICH IN THIS CASE ARE STILL SEVERAL WEEKS OUT FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LONG TERM... ANOTHER COOL DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY THANKS TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...EVEN WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK TO ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START A SLOW WARM UP FOR SUNDAY BEFORE GOING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE DRYLINE PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND KICKS IN. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WIND SPEEDS ARE...BUT DRY AIR AND TEMPERATURES WILL ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS PRETTY UNCERTAIN IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC KEEP DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES ARE IN STORE FOR THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS THE GFS SWINGS THE CENTER OF A CLOSED LOW STRAIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH THAT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER THAN THE GFS. TIMING DIFFERENCES IMPACT ALL SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS BUT ESPECIALLY POPS... SUPERBLEND IS INCREASING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE GFS HAS SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND THE GFS IN COVERAGE...AMOUNTS...AND TIMING...WILL DROP SUPERBLEND POPS QUITE A BIT TO TAKE THE ECMWF TIMING INTO ACCOUNT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AS THE GFS DRIVES A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOWER WIND SPEEDS AND AN AIRMASS NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER THAN THE MIDDLE PART BUT HOW COOL REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH TIME FOR THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. JORDAN && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
652 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .AVIATION... TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM LOW CIGS AT LBB WILL SOON GIVE WAY TO IFR CIGS IN SIMILAR FASHION TO PVW. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY FALL TO LIFR AT THESE SITES BEFORE 15Z...BUT STRONGER AND DRIER NE WINDS BY MID-MORNING WILL LIKELY PREVENT THIS AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO STRATUS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CDS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN SUB-VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR THIS EVENING. THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPING NEAR CDS REMAINS INTACT THIS MORNING...BUT LIKELIHOOD OF A DIRECT IMPACT IS LOWER THAN AREAS FARTHER EAST SO HAVE REMOVED THE EARLIER TS MENTION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/ SHORT TERM... IR SATELLITE AND REGIONAL METARS AT 2 AM CLEARLY SHOWED THE COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED MOST OF THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 43 MPH IN DALHART. HRRR AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FRONT WHICH SHOULD CLEAR LUBBOCK BETWEEN 5 AM AND 6 AM. OF GREATER INTEREST IS THE RECENT BLOSSOMING OF LOW CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS STRATUS IS TIED TO A ZONAL LL MOISTURE AXIS IN ERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT WHERE THIS AXIS INTERSECTS THE FRONT. UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THIS MOISTURE IS ALREADY BREEDING ELEVATED CAPE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS OF 500-1000 J/KG PER THE RUC MESOANALYSIS. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER...RICHER GULF MOISTURE CURLING ISENTROPICALLY N-NEWD FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR /AIDED BY A VEERING LLJ/ WILL ONLY IMPROVE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK... ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM. BOOSTED PRE-7 AM POPS TO 50 PERCENT IN CHILDRESS COUNTY BEFORE TAPERING THESE BACK THEREAFTER AS AMPLE W-NW STEERING WINDS CARRY THIS CONVECTION FARTHER DOWN THE RED RIVER. KEPT LOW T-STORM CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TO CLEAR THESE AREAS...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR NEXT TO NIL AS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR WEDGES SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON BRISK NELY WINDS. UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES...POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS STILL FAVORED TO EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. RAP SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SATURATION AT TIMES FOR SOME DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-27...SO MENTION OF DRIZZLE WAS INSERTED FOR THIS FAVORABLY MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. OTHERWISE... STRATUS IS FAVORED TO THIN AND ERODE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON IN CONTRAST TO THE NAM WHICH KEEPS LOW CLOUDS INTACT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. PROVIDED THIS CLEARING OCCURS... THE SETUP SHOULD BE MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR WELL-BELOW NORMAL LOWS AREA WIDE AS WINDS TREND LIGHT WITHIN THE CENTER OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE. NUDGED THE INHERITED LOW TEMPS EVEN LOWER TONIGHT GIVEN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND AN OVERALL LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE SINCE LATE FEBRUARY...OUR OFFICE DOES NOT ISSUE SPRING FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL WE ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LAST FREEZE DATES WHICH IN THIS CASE ARE STILL SEVERAL WEEKS OUT FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LONG TERM... ANOTHER COOL DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY THANKS TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...EVEN WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK TO ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START A SLOW WARM UP FOR SUNDAY BEFORE GOING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE DRYLINE PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND KICKS IN. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WIND SPEEDS ARE...BUT DRY AIR AND TEMPERATURES WILL ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS PRETTY UNCERTAIN IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC KEEP DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES ARE IN STORE FOR THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS THE GFS SWINGS THE CENTER OF A CLOSED LOW STRAIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH THAT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER THAN THE GFS. TIMING DIFFERENCES IMPACT ALL SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS BUT ESPECIALLY POPS... SUPERBLEND IS INCREASING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE GFS HAS SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND THE GFS IN COVERAGE...AMOUNTS...AND TIMING...WILL DROP SUPERBLEND POPS QUITE A BIT TO TAKE THE ECMWF TIMING INTO ACCOUNT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AS THE GFS DRIVES A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOWER WIND SPEEDS AND AN AIRMASS NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER THAN THE MIDDLE PART BUT HOW COOL REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH TIME FOR THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. JORDAN && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
345 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SHORT TERM... IR SATELLITE AND REGIONAL METARS AT 2 AM CLEARLY SHOWED THE COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED MOST OF THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 43 MPH IN DALHART. HRRR AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FRONT WHICH SHOULD CLEAR LUBBOCK BETWEEN 5 AM AND 6 AM. OF GREATER INTEREST IS THE RECENT BLOSSOMING OF LOW CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS STRATUS IS TIED TO A ZONAL LL MOISTURE AXIS IN ERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT WHERE THIS AXIS INTERSECTS THE FRONT. UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THIS MOISTURE IS ALREADY BREEDING ELEVATED CAPE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS OF 500-1000 J/KG PER THE RUC MESOANALYSIS. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER...RICHER GULF MOISTURE CURLING ISENTROPICALLY N-NEWD FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR /AIDED BY A VEERING LLJ/ WILL ONLY IMPROVE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK... ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM. BOOSTED PRE-7 AM POPS TO 50 PERCENT IN CHILDRESS COUNTY BEFORE TAPERING THESE BACK THEREAFTER AS AMPLE W-NW STEERING WINDS CARRY THIS CONVECTION FARTHER DOWN THE RED RIVER. KEPT LOW T-STORM CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TO CLEAR THESE AREAS...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR NEXT TO NIL AS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR WEDGES SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON BRISK NELY WINDS. UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES...POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS STILL FAVORED TO EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. RAP SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SATURATION AT TIMES FOR SOME DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-27...SO MENTION OF DRIZZLE WAS INSERTED FOR THIS FAVORABLY MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. OTHERWISE... STRATUS IS FAVORED TO THIN AND ERODE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON IN CONTRAST TO THE NAM WHICH KEEPS LOW CLOUDS INTACT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. PROVIDED THIS CLEARING OCCURS... THE SETUP SHOULD BE MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR WELL-BELOW NORMAL LOWS AREA WIDE AS WINDS TREND LIGHT WITHIN THE CENTER OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE. NUDGED THE INHERITED LOW TEMPS EVEN LOWER TONIGHT GIVEN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND AN OVERALL LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE SINCE LATE FEBRUARY...OUR OFFICE DOES NOT ISSUE SPRING FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL WE ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LAST FREEZE DATES WHICH IN THIS CASE ARE STILL SEVERAL WEEKS OUT FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. .LONG TERM... ANOTHER COOL DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY THANKS TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...EVEN WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK TO ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START A SLOW WARM UP FOR SUNDAY BEFORE GOING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE DRYLINE PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND KICKS IN. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WIND SPEEDS ARE...BUT DRY AIR AND TEMPERATURES WILL ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS PRETTY UNCERTAIN IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC KEEP DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES ARE IN STORE FOR THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS THE GFS SWINGS THE CENTER OF A CLOSED LOW STRAIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH THAT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER THAN THE GFS. TIMING DIFFERENCES IMPACT ALL SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS BUT ESPECIALLY POPS... SUPERBLEND IS INCREASING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE GFS HAS SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND THE GFS IN COVERAGE...AMOUNTS...AND TIMING...WILL DROP SUPERBLEND POPS QUITE A BIT TO TAKE THE ECMWF TIMING INTO ACCOUNT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AS THE GFS DRIVES A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOWER WIND SPEEDS AND AN AIRMASS NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER THAN THE MIDDLE PART BUT HOW COOL REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH TIME FOR THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. JORDAN && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1023 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IOWA BUT ALSO EXTENDING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ARCING BAND OF CLOUDS IS GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. RADAR RETURNS SHOW JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN WINNEBAGO AND CALUMET COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD EXIT THESE COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WI. FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...BANDS OF CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND MOST LIKELY EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...DIURNAL CU ACROSS NORTHERN WI WILL ALSO LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING. THIS SHOULD LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. DESPITE SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GUIDANCE IS NOT THAT COLD TONIGHT. THINK THAT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER N-C WI...SO SIDED WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA...AND THEN DROPPED THE COLD SPOTS A COUPLE DEGREES FURTHER. THE EAST SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO GUIDANCE DUE TO NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE EVENING. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER ONTARIO. SOME DIURNAL CU IS ALSO LIKELY TO POP BY LATE IN THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED HOWEVER...BUT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...A FEW SHOWERS MAY MIGRATE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO N-C WI...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 THE PATTERN INCREASINGLY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FOR THE NEW WORK DUE A TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE WEEK TO A DEEPENING SYSTEM BY MID WEEK. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF A NORTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHILE A 100 KT JETLET SLIDES OVER. PCPN TYPE AN ISSUE WITH MORE LIKELY SNOW FROM FAR NE WISCONSIN TO RAIN CENTRAL AREAS...AND A MIX IN BETWEEN. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...PCPN MAY TREND LESS BUT NOT END AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE AREA AS UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INTENSE WEST TO EAST 850 FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE STATE WITH A LFQ REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING. PREVIOUS MODELS WERE MIXED WITH PCPN TYPE FROM HEAVY RAIN TO HEAVY SNOW...BUT LATEST RUNS SUGGESTS COLDER AND MORE TOWARD A HEAVY SNOW EVENT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEN DIVERTS AFTER WITH DURATION AND TRACKING. PROGS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE 850 LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOWARD FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. SMALL PCPN CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 24 HRS. CLDS SLOWLY SHIFTG SWD...AND REMAINING CIGS ARE VFR. STILL THINK SOME LAKE CLDS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TNGT...BUT NO SIGN OF THOSE DEVELOPING YET. THE LAKE CLDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME MVFR CIGS...BUT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE WOLF GRADUALLY RISING. HYDRO PARTNERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS FURTHER NORTH...WILL BE MORE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS AND MORE RUNOFF. IF MORE SNOW...A MORE DELAYED RUNOFF. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......TDH AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI HYDROLOGY......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
920 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .UPDATE... PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN AT TIMES...OVER SW PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND ISOLATED FLURRIES OVER THE REST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ARE SINKING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE DEFORMATION AROUND CLOSED 500 MB LOW THAT IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. WITH THE STRONGER FORCING MOVING SOUTH OF THE STATE...SHOULD SEE MAINLY FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE UNTIL IT ENDS BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS ARE THINNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS NE TO SW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FORECASTED LOWS TO BE REACHED. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/... VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/ISOLATED VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND ISOLATED FLURRIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA ARE SINKING TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH EASTERN AREAS FOR ANY LOW STRATUS OFF THE LAKE WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SREF IN AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER MOS GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE PROBABILITY OF CIGS UNDER 3K FT UNDER 25 PCT FOR THE EAST. LATEST NAM LOW LEVEL RH FORECASTS ALSO KEEP HIGHER RH...AND THUS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE. WINDS TURN NORTH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN NW IN THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MN AND IA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FOND DU LAC AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES ARE SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AS THEY WEAKEN. THESE ARE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IOWA AND ALSO COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST WITH TIME TODAY. MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI THIS AFTERNOON... RIGHT WITHIN THAT AREA OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE SUFFICIENT UP TO 5000 FEET ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOWED IN THEIR MORNING FORECASTS. WARM AIR IS WRAPPING NORTHWARD SO THESE SHOWERS ARE RAIN. THEY MAY CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR FROM THE SHEBOYGAN AREA WRAPS INTO SOUTHWEST WI. BESIDES BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THESE SHOWERS... NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH MO TONIGHT AND TN SUNDAY. THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST WI TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND PROBABLY DOWN TO THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY. ONE MORE VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS INTO THE MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THESE CLOUDS IF THEY DEVELOP- THEY RAP IS SHOWING DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE NAM. TOO SMALL OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY WILL TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE. WE WILL STILL BE UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH... SO EXPECT CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY LATE MORNING THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AREA AS WELL. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW SO NO SHOWERS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW US TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD BY MONDAY...EXITING EAST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A DECENT DAY BY MOST MEASURES WITH WINDS LIGHT AND HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S...LOW 40S BY SHEBOYGAN AND UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET THAT POINTS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING...THEN PIVOTS TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION IS DEEP AND QUITE STRONG...BUT ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY TREND. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE AND IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT THIS KIND OF WAA USUALLY FIGURES OUT A WAY TO MAKE IT HAPPEN. FOR NOW...IN THE INTEREST OF COLLABORATION MOSTLY...WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SPRINKLES...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PLACES MEASURE. THE LOW OUT WEST WILL HAVE A TROUGH/STATIONARY BOUNDARY...EXTENDING EAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH ANY DEEPER FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE LACKING. WILL CARRY SMALL POPS ON TUESDAY...MAINLY EAST WE SHOULD GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ENOUGH ON TUESDAY TO SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S...THOUGH MUCH MORE QUESTIONABLE UP TOWARD SHEBOYGAN WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 40S. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. A VERY INTERESTING PERIOD HERE. THERE IS A GROWING CONSENSUS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE KS/NEB VCNTY THEN HEADING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL OR FAR SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH THIS EARLY SPRING STORM AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL. THE GFS IS LOOKING THE WARMEST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND THE GEM-NH. LOTS OF CLASSIC DYNAMIC FORCING HERE WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND UPPER JET CONFIGURATION...IN ADDITION TO DEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS. GLAD TO SEE THE 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS IS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SUGGESTING THE BETTER SNOW BAND WILL STAY OUT OF THE AREA. OUR NORTHERN HALF...N OF MKE AND MSN...COULD SEE A RAIN SHOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING... TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE. AS TEMPS FALL AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MIX WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH...THEN SPREAD SOUTH AS IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW IN SOME AREAS. FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...BUT DETAILS START TO GET VERY MURKY GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AT THAT RANGE. THE BIG MESSAGE IS STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THE TRACK AND WX TYPE DETAILS GOING FORWARD...THEY WILL SURELY CHANGE. IF YOU PLAN ON TRAVELING NORTH THROUGH THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY/WED NGT...YOU/LL WANT TO PREPARE FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. WE SHOULD BE DRYING OUT BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FOND DU LAC AND PORTAGE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND AS THEY WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BACK EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS IS PERSISTING LONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED SO SOUTHEAST WI SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE VERY LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO NO IMPACT FOR AVIATION. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM MADISON TO JANESVILLE AND WEST. THESE ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP AND ARE PRIMARILY RAIN DUE TO WARM AIR WRAPPING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THEY MAY CHANGE OVER TO A MIX IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ENDING. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3 TO 5SM. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 3 SM RANGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND THEN SCATTER OUT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER BROKEN LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM KMKE TO KENW. THE LES CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY RANGE FROM 1.5 KFT TO 3.0 KFT. MARINE... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING BUT WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. LIGHTER NORTH WINDS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...REM TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
358 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 AT 3 PM...A BAND OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DODGE CENTER MINNESOTA /WHICH IS REPORTING SNOW/...WE ARE SEEING MAINLY REPORTS OF RAIN OUT OF THESE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A BAND OF WEAK 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THIS BAND EXTENDS WEST TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE COOLS TO LESS THAN 1500 FEET. WHILE THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE 800 TO 700 MB WEAKENS AND MOVES WEST. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WEAKEN AND THAT THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL DECREASE. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR COBB DATA PRODUCE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AT KRST. THIS MAINLY DUE TO THIS MODEL PRODUCING SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 20-30 TO 1 WHICH SEEMS VERY UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AND THE DEPTH OF THE LIFT. IN ADDITION...GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE 2-INCH SOIL DEPTH TEMPERATURE AT OUR OFFICE IS CURRENTLY 38F...SO THIS WILL LIKELY HELP TO CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOW UNLESS THE SNOW RATES ARE HIGH. AS RESULT...PREFER THE NAM AND GFS COBB DATA WHICH PRODUCE LITTLE...IF ANY SNOW. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS HAVE UP TO 1 INCH NEAR INTERSTATE 35 WHICH SEEMS REALISTIC SINCE IT IS CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT IS LOCATED NEAR THE PIVOT POINT OF THE 800 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE. AS A RESULT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL IT REACHES NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. IN OUR AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT THIS TIME LOOK INITIALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET AND THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX. ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...THE AREA WILL ENTER THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 4C IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO 12C IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND AND IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM THE PLAINS WILL CONFINE ANY PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOOK WARM INITIALLY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX AND SNOW. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND BY THIS TIME. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF...SO IT WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD VERY LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 WITH UPPER SYSTEM SPINNING OVERHEAD AND VERY SLOW PROGRESSION... SURFACE FLOW IS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO FORECAST IN THE EARLY PERIODS. WIND SHIFT AXIS RUNNING FROM THE TWIN CITIES DOWN INTO CENTRAL WI...BUT ONLY GRADUALLY PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. EVENTUALLY EXPECT BOTH TAF LOCATIONS TO SWITCH TO NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS. GENERALLY WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE AREA BUT ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES POINT TO MAINLY SNOW WITH THESE...DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S. ENOUGH DRY AIR TO ALLOW ADIABATIC COOLING ALONG THE WEB BULB TEMP TO KEEP IT PRIMARILY SNOW. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AS RATE DOES NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ALREADY WARM GROUND. BUT COULD BRIEFLY SNOW HARD ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISIBILITY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TREND AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY...THROUGH FRIDAY ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE BLACK RIVER IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WATER LEVELS ARE FALLING AT BLACK RIVER FALLS...BUT THE CREST HAS NOT QUITE REACHED GALESVILLE YET. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF WATER WERE MOVING THROUGH THE WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN AS WELL. THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH WAS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND A CREST NEAR MAJOR LEVEL IS POSSIBLE BY MORNING. FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER 44000 CFS OUT OF CASTLE ROCK DAM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MINOR FLOODING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO MUSCODA THIS WEEKEND. AND AS THE HIGH WATER ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI MEETS UP WITH THIS WISCONSIN RIVER VOLUME...EXPECT MINOR FLOODING TO BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR MCGREGOR AND GUTTENBERG EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. FURTHER UPSTREAM ON THE MIGHTY MISSISSIPPI...INFLOW FROM THE CHIPPEWA RIVER WILL HELP WABASHA TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE... AND SOME MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED THERE. THANKFULLY...NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...MW HYDROLOGY...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1036 PM PDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE SECOND PART OF THIS INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY...WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING TO THE ENE. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS LIFTED THE MARINE LAYER...RESULTING IN PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING. SOME MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CLIP NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAIN PROBABLY WON`T DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS RAIN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON THE SONOMA COUNTY COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTH BAY BY MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN FRANCISCO. THIS INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE ENE AND NOT DIG SOUTH AS IT MOVES INLAND. THUS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH BAY TOMORROW...WITH RAIN TOTALS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH IN SAN FRANCISCO. ONLY SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. BUT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE AND RENEWED RAINFALL IS FORECAST MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS SECOND ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF OUR CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HALF INCH MAY FALL IN THE NORTH BAY MONDAY...WITH A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTH. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT SATURDAY...ITS BEEN A DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS. THE NAM40 FORECAST MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONT ARRIVING TO THE COAST BETWEEN 1800Z AND 2100Z SUNDAY. THIS RATHER WEAK FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE FROM SAN JOSE NORTHWARD. MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 0900Z WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS BKN025 PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS AND APPROACH. CIGS BKN015-025 ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 0900Z. MVFR CIGS BKN025 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH WET RUNWAYS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 0600 AND 0800Z. SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 1900Z ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. && .MARINE...AS OF 8:26 PM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS FRONT IS WEAK BUT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONTS PARENT STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE WATERS. WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 5 AM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 5 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA AVIATION: LARRY MARINE: LARRY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
901 PM PDT SAT MAR 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE SECOND PART OF THIS INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY...WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING TO THE ENE. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS LIFTED THE MARINE LAYER...RESULTING IN PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING. SOME MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CLIP NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAIN PROBABLY WON`T DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS RAIN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON THE SONOMA COUNTY COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTH BAY BY MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN FRANCISCO. THIS INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE ENE AND NOT DIG SOUTH AS IT MOVES INLAND. THUS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH BAY TOMORROW...WITH RAIN TOTALS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH IN SAN FRANCISCO. ONLY SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. BUT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE AND RENEWED RAINFALL IS FORECAST MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS SECOND ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF OUR CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HALF INCH MAY FALL IN THE NORTH BAY MONDAY...WITH A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTH. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST. && .AVIATION...AS OF 6:02 PM PDT SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A COLD FRONT POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 350 MILES OFFSHORE. THE NAM40 FORECAST MODEL SHOWS THIS FRONT ARRIVING TO THE COAST BETWEEN 1800Z AND 2100Z SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS RATHER WEAK FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE FROM SAN JOSE NORTHWARD. MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 0900Z WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS BKN025 PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS AND APPROACH. CIGS BKN015-025 ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 0900Z. MVFR CIGS BKN025 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH WET RUNWAYS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 0200Z WITH PERIODS OF CIGS OVC009-012 PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS. BY 0200Z CIGS BKN015-025 ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 1900Z ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. && .MARINE...AS OF 8:26 PM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS FRONT IS WEAK BUT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONTS PARENT STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE WATERS. WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 5 AM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 5 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA AVIATION: LARRY MARINE: LARRY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
142 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THE SAME TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A VERY TIGHT DEW POINT GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST DOWN INTO THE LOWER LEHIGH VALLEY. AS A RESULT, THE ECHOS SEEN ON THE RADAR ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. DEW POINTS EXTENDING FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF OUR AREA AND RETURNS TO THE WEST ARE VERY LIGHT AND MIGHT NOT BE MUCH MORE OF A VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLE. LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE INDICATE A FEW BANDS OF 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE, TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE INITIAL WAVE AND ITS LIFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT, THEREFORE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF AS WELL. THE POPS REFLECT THIS WITH A DECREASING TREND SOUTHWARD. FARTHER NORTH, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH EVEN THE CLOUDS THINNING FOR A TIME. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A MOS BLEND. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURES, MAY TEND TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY NOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/... ON SUNDAY, POPS WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD, WHICH BRINGS BETTER LIFT DEEPER INTO OUR CWA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PERHAPS SOME BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FOR AWHILE, HOWEVER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING OR MOVING INLAND SOME AS THE INCOMING TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN MORE. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING, AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON IN NEW JERSEY. IF THIS OCCURS, QUICKER COOLING WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW OCCURRING. AS OF NOW, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE OTHER THAN TO ADD MORE MIX/SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYS END. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL SO UNLESS PRECIP FALLS HARD, THE SNOW LIKELY WOULD JUST STICK MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES, CARS ETC. THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ITS TOUGH DURING THE DAY TO GET APPRECIABLE SNOW DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE UNLESS IT COMES DOWN HARD. THE BEST CHCS ATTM FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW FALLING WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE EVENING HOURS. MONDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH A BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UP TICK. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO ALL THE AREA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES...ITS BEEN VERY WARM SO FAR THIS MONTH...6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW A BRIEF COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS COMING WEEK BEFORE IT WARMS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END. FOR REFERENCE, THE NORMALS FOR PHILLY DURING THE PERIOD ARE LOW TO MID 50S AND MID 30S. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION...THIS EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES THREE PRECIPITATION REFERENCES. THE FIRST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE SECOND REFERENCE IS MIDWEEK ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. THE THIRD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. WINDS...NORTH WINDS MAINLY 10 OR LESS SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING NORTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY ON MONDAY. THE WINDS, 10 OR LESS, WILL START TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. THEY COULD GUST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. IMPACTS...NOTHING WIDESPREAD SHAPING UP ATTM. WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE SNOW, THEY SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ATTM, IMPACTS APPEAR THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. WE COULD SEE SOME MORNING SPRING FOG LATER IN THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT IT`T TOO SOON TO DETERMINE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THIS TIME BUT BASES WILL REMAIN AROUND 4000-5000FT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST. TODAY...THE DAY WILL BEGIN VFR AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SO THROUGH MIDDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST, WE WILL SEE INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS ON THE EASTERLY FLOW. RAIN WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST, REACHING KACY AND KMIV BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND SHOULD REACH KTTN, KPHL, KPNE AND KILG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND THIS MAY RESULT IN A RATHER QUICK CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNSET AND LATER. TONIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AT THE TERMINALS, WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE AND WE HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS TO SHOW THE BEST TIMING FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS KRDG AND KABE. FOR NOW WE MENTION VCSH AT KABE AND LEAVE KRDG DRY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO BACK TO THE NORTH. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KACY AND KMIV. OUTLOOK... LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND. WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... A SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WATERS THRU THE PD DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS, MOVES OFF THE CST AND THEN UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THU SUN. ATTM, IT DOES NOT APPEAR GALE CRITERIA WILL BE MET, SO THE GALE WATCH WAS DROPPED. OUTLOOK... SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD... SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FAVORED WINDS LESS THAN 35 KT. WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER BAY. MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. A SCA LOOKS LIKELY. MAYBE GALES MONDAY EVENING. LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...DIMINISHING WIND AND HEADLINES NOT LIKELY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SCA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, EXPECT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY FAVORABLE, AND WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL OFF SHORE, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS OUR LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING SHY OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR BOTH THE SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER AS A SLIGHT SHIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD INCREASE THE THREAT. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO NEAR TERM...GORSE/MEOLA SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG LONG TERM...KRUZDLO AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1225 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THE SAME TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A VERY TIGHT DEW POINT GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST DOWN INTO THE LOWER LEHIGH VALLEY. AS A RESULT, THE ECHOS SEEN ON THE RADAR ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. DEW POINTS EXTENDING FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF OUR AREA AND RETURNS TO THE WEST ARE VERY LIGHT AND MIGHT NOT BE MUCH MORE OF A VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLE. LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE INDICATE A FEW BANDS OF 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE, TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE INITIAL WAVE AND ITS LIFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT, THEREFORE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF AS WELL. THE POPS REFLECT THIS WITH A DECREASING TREND SOUTHWARD. FARTHER NORTH, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH EVEN THE CLOUDS THINNING FOR A TIME. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A MOS BLEND. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURES, MAY TEND TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY NOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/... ON SUNDAY, POPS WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD, WHICH BRINGS BETTER LIFT DEEPER INTO OUR CWA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PERHAPS SOME BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FOR AWHILE, HOWEVER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING OR MOVING INLAND SOME AS THE INCOMING TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN MORE. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING, AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON IN NEW JERSEY. IF THIS OCCURS, QUICKER COOLING WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW OCCURRING. AS OF NOW, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE OTHER THAN TO ADD MORE MIX/SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYS END. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL SO UNLESS PRECIP FALLS HARD, THE SNOW LIKELY WOULD JUST STICK MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES, CARS ETC. THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ITS TOUGH DURING THE DAY TO GET APPRECIABLE SNOW DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE UNLESS IT COMES DOWN HARD. THE BEST CHCS ATTM FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW FALLING WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE EVENING HOURS. MONDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH A BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UP TICK. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO ALL THE AREA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES...ITS BEEN VERY WARM SO FAR THIS MONTH...6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW A BRIEF COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS COMING WEEK BEFORE IT WARMS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END. FOR REFERENCE, THE NORMALS FOR PHILLY DURING THE PERIOD ARE LOW TO MID 50S AND MID 30S. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION...THIS EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES THREE PRECIPITATION REFERENCES. THE FIRST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE SECOND REFERENCE IS MIDWEEK ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. THE THIRD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. WINDS...NORTH WINDS MAINLY 10 OR LESS SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING NORTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY ON MONDAY. THE WINDS, 10 OR LESS, WILL START TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. THEY COULD GUST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. IMPACTS...NOTHING WIDESPREAD SHAPING UP ATTM. WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE SNOW, THEY SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ATTM, IMPACTS APPEAR THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. WE COULD SEE SOME MORNING SPRING FOG LATER IN THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT IT`T TOO SOON TO DETERMINE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SOME MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS MOSTLY SOUTH OF KPHL. KMIV AND KACY HAVE THE GREATER CHANCE OF HAVING MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE VISIBILITY AS THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY OVERALL MAY BE RATHER LIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, HOWEVER FAVORING NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SUNDAY...VFR CEILINGS NEAR AND NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL OVERALL, WITH LOWER CEILINGS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE SHIFTS WESTWARD SOME. AS A RESULT, RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED FROM KTTN-KPNE-KPHL-KILG ON EASTWARD WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR AWHILE ESPECIALLY AT KMIV AND KACY. OUR CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE HOWEVER WITH THE IMPACTS AND TIMING AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. OUTLOOK... EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR, LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR FOR A TIME IN MOSTLY SNOW VCNTY KACY. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS COULD BE GUSTY 15- 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND. WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... A SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WATERS THRU THE PD DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS, MOVES OFF THE CST AND THEN UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THU SUN. ATTM, IT DOES NOT APPEAR GALE CRITERIA WILL BE MET, SO THE GALE WATCH WAS DROPPED. OUTLOOK... SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD... SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FAVORED WINDS LESS THAN 35 KT. WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER BAY. MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. A SCA LOOKS LIKELY. MAYBE GALES MONDAY EVENING. LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...DIMINISHING WIND AND HEADLINES NOT LIKELY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SCA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, EXPECT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY FAVORABLE, AND WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL OFF SHORE, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS OUR LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING SHY OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR BOTH THE SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER AS A SLIGHT SHIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD INCREASE THE THREAT. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO NEAR TERM...GORSE/MEOLA SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG LONG TERM...KRUZDLO AVIATION...GORSE/KRUZDLO MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 07z/2am surface analysis shows trough axis bisecting the KILX CWA from near Galesburg to just south of Paris. Scattered light rain showers are occurring in the vicinity of this feature, with a few obs occasionally reporting light snow. With upper levels continuing to cool as closed 500mb low tracks southeastward along the Mississippi River, think a light rain/snow mix will continue through the early morning. Due to surface temps above freezing and relatively warm soil conditions, no accumulation is expected. The trough will gradually settle southward today, pushing any lingering light precip south of the CWA by midday. Based on current radar loops and latest HRRR forecast, have carried low chance PoPs along/south of a Jacksonville to Mattoon line this morning, then have gone dry everywhere for the afternoon. Skies are currently cloudy: however, a dry low-level airmass to the northeast has helped skies clear over Michigan and northern Indiana. As the trough axis sinks southward and winds become northeasterly, this drier air will try to work its way into central Illinois. Think portions of the NE CWA may partially clear for a time this morning, before diurnal CU redevelops, leading to a partly to mostly cloudy day. High temperatures will again be below normal for this time of year in the middle 40s. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 High pressure will build into the region tonight, resulting in clearing skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s. The cool/dry weather will continue into Monday before the high shifts to the east and a strong southerly return flow develops Monday night into Tuesday. Pressure gradient between departing high and developing low over the Plains will result in sustained southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph on Tuesday, with gusts reaching 30 mph at times. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and a good deal of sunshine, high temperatures will soar into the 60s. A frontal boundary will sag southward into north-central Illinois Tuesday night. As increasing moisture flows northward and interacts with the front, a few showers will be possible along/north of a Peoria to Bloomington line. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the entire CWA on Wednesday as the airmass becomes more unstable and low pressure slowly approaches from the west. With strongest forcing remaining further north and west, have only carried slight chance PoPs across most of the area, with higher PoPs confined to the far north in closer conjunction to the baroclinic zone. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for the end of the week, particularly concerning the speed of an approaching short-wave trough and how fast it will push a frontal boundary through central Illinois. All models have sped up this process from previous runs, with the 00z Mar 20 GFS now becoming the fastest. The GFS shows a 991mb over Lake Michigan, with the trailing cold front along the Illinois/Indiana border by 12z Thu. Meanwhile, both the GEM and ECMWF have quickened from their prior runs, but are about 12 hours slower than the GFS. The ECMWF has the low over central Illinois and the GEM places it over northern Missouri 12z Thu. Given that the GFS has made such an abrupt change from its solution just 24 hours ago, prefer to side with the slower GEM/ECMWF. As a result, am focusing the greatest rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday when likely PoPs for showers/thunder are warranted. Will linger lower rain chances into Thursday night as the system departs, followed by a return to dry weather for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs...except for a couple of hours at the beginning at CMI where light rain is occurring. All other sites may or may not see pcpn, so will keep VCSH at all sites overnight. Cig heights should be 4.5kft to 5kft overnight. By morning, lower clouds will scatter out with broken mid clouds around 10kft. Any pcpn should be south of the sites based on current short term hi-res model forecasts, showing the sfc trough rotating through the area overnight. With less clouds tomorrow morning, believe cu will develop during the afternoon and be broken at times...so have this as a TEMPO group during the afternoon. By early evening skies should become clear. Winds will be variable at PIA and BMI, with other sites more northwest to north. All sites will see northerly winds during the morning and then become northwest for the afternoon and evening. Wind speeds will be less than 10kts overnight and tomorrow, then become 10-13kts for the afternoon, then less during the evening. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
311 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SHORT TERM... 306 AM CDT THROUGH MONDAY... FAIRLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WHILE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES BEGIN TUESDAY WITH A BIG WARMUP ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN RACE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH IS NOTED STRETCHING FROM NEAR CMI NORTHWEST TO PIA THEN MLI. A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA HOWEVER THOSE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BUILDING OVERHEAD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE TODAY...AND DEEP MIXING CAPPED BY A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM OCCURRING TODAY DESPITE SOME MODELS LIKE THE HRRR TRYING TO BREAK OUT MODEST POPCORN CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S TODAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE FRONT BUT IF ANYTHING THERE SEEMS POTENTIAL TO GO WARMER IF WE SEE MORE SUNSHINE. KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO RIGHT AROUND 40 AGAIN IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT PROVIDING CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. ON MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE THE GRADIENT TO REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...BUT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY SHUNT ITS INLAND PROGRESS. THIS MAKES TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY FOR THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE LAKE AS ITS UNSURE HOW MUCH PROGRESS THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE. AREAS UNAFFECTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE...BUT NEAR THE LAKE WILL ONLY CALL FOR MID 40S. DEUBELBEISS && .LONG TERM... 306 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING AT LEAST A DAY OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS A STABLE WAVE TRANSLATES EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SERVE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO CAUSING A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA OR VERY NEARBY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS IT DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS DISTANCE...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODELS. GFS TRACKS THE LOW RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAS DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK WHICH TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN THURSDAY. A LOT WILL HINGE ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER VS MIXED PRECIP/SNOW...60S VS 30S FOR TEMPS. AT THIS DISTANCE...MAINTAINED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AND WILL HAVE TO HONE IN FURTHER ON THE DETAILS AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. DEUBELBEISS && .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS... NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A FEW LAYERS OF HIGHER VFR CLOUDS WRAPPING WESTWARD AROUND THIS CIRCULATION ACROSS THE TERMINALS... THOUGH RELATIVELY DRY AIR UPSTREAM TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WAS LIMITING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO JUST SOME PATCHY 2500 FT STRATOCU PER DOWNTOWN CHICAGO WEB CAM VIEWS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS CURRENTLY AROUND 33010 KT WILL LIKELY BACK MORE NORTHERLY 350-010 DEG SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT TYPICALLY WILL PRODUCE A NORTHEAST COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A LAKE BREEZE SUPERIMPOSED ON SYNOPTIC NORTHERLIES. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A NORTHEAST WIND FOR ORD/MDW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. RATZER && .MARINE... 200 AM CDT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY...THEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY GALES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING SOUTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...ALLOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. WEATHER FOR THE WESTERN LAKES WILL THEN TURN MORE ACTIVE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...WITH A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST AND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL DEEPEN AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 25-30 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PASSES. AS THE STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON MOST OF THE LAKE...AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE 30 KT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WINDS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER...IN THE REGION OF WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW...THOUGH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES DO APPEAR LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW SCOOTS BY TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
340 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY WITH WEAKNESS RUNNING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. ALONG THIS...NORTHWEST AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THIS WAY. CLOSER TO HOME...A FEW SPRINKLES OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER CLOUDS EAST OF JKL. ELSEWHERE... THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP AND RETREATING EAST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOUND TO THE WEST. THE CLEARING IS HELPING TO DROP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF EXTRA DEGREES WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE NORTHWEST OF JACKSON WHILE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE NOTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ALSO VARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTH AND FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH. THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WITH A SLEW OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY WILL BRUSH THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS WILL THEN REBOUND INTO MONDAY...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS SOME OF THE MORE RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TO FOLLOW. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COOL END TO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE WORST OF THE CHILL. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL SLIP JUST EAST OF SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND LIKELY BRUSH THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. FOR THIS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...BUT...DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW/TROUGH PASSING BY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY HAVE ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THIS. THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT BY EVENING AND SETS THE STAGE FOR A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES A GOOD BET ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE WX GRIDS AND WILL MENTION IT IN THE HWO AS OUR FROST FREEZE HEADLINE PROGRAM WILL NOT START FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT SET UP AS THE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY... DESPITE THE CHILLY START. AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER. HAVE ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE SLIGHT TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE FOR TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...POPS WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH MAYBE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...THEREFORE LOWERED VALLEY TEMPS GIVEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR DECOUPLING. ALSO DID KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR MAINLY SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY SPOTS. THIS SURFACE HIGH DOES BEGIN TO SKIRT EAST AND WE BEGIN TO GET IN THE RETURN FLOW SIDE BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A WEAK/FLATTENED OUT RIDGE ALOFT THAT WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. THESE WILL ALL COMBINE WITH DECENT MIXING OF WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP OBTAINED OUT OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THE OVERALL DRIER DAY RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY WHERE RH VALUES RUN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND WINDS GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. WE THEN TURN OUR FOCUS TO THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. MODELS DO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM STILL...BUT SEEM TO HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE WITH THE 00Z GFS WHICH IS NEARLY 24 HOURS FASTER NOW...AND THIS IS RELATED TO THE AMPLITUDE AND OPENNESS OF THE TROUGH IN THE LATEST RUNS. THIS TREND BEGAN LAST NIGHT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND HAS CONTINUED IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE TODAY. RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THE MODEL BLEND AND THIS BRINGS THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK WITH LIKELY POPS GIVEN THAT WE CONTINUE TO GAIN RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE BEST FORCING WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION...AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW GETS PUSHED INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL THINK IT IS WORTH A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE T GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6 TO 6.5 C/KM RANGE. THAT SAID EARLY STAGES BLENDED QPF LOOKS TO RANGE IN THE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A INCH RANGE...WHICH SEEMS TO MATCH UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CIPS ANALOGS UNDER THIS REGIME. BEHIND THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON TRENDS THINK TEMPS COULD BE COOLER THAN BLEND ADVERTISES. THIS AS 850 TEMPS ARE POISED TO DROP INTO THE -2 TO -5 C RANGE. THE COOL DOWN LOOKS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IMPROVEMENT WILL GENERALLY OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON FOLLOWING SUNRISE...WITH SJS HANGING ONTO MVFR CONDITIONS THE LONGEST. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO THREATEN THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT SME...FOR THIS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
313 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY WITH WEAKNESS RUNNING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. ALONG THIS...NORTHWEST AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THIS WAY. CLOSER TO HOME...A FEW SPRINKLES OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER CLOUDS EAST OF JKL. ELSEWHERE... THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP AND RETREATING EAST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOUND TO THE WEST. THE CLEARING IS HELPING TO DROP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF EXTRA DEGREES WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE NORTHWEST OF JACKSON WHILE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE NOTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ALSO VARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTH AND FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH. THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WITH A SLEW OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY WILL BRUSH THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS WILL THEN REBOUND INTO MONDAY...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS SOME OF THE MORE RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TO FOLLOW. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COOL END TO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE WORST OF THE CHILL. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL SLIP JUST EAST OF SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND LIKELY BRUSH THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. FOR THIS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...BUT...DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW/TROUGH PASSING BY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY HAVE ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THIS. THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT BY EVENING AND SETS THE STAGE FOR A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES A GOOD BET ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE WX GRIDS AND WILL MENTION IT IN THE HWO AS OUR FROST FREEZE HEADLINE PROGRAM WILL NOT START FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT SET UP AS THE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY... DESPITE THE CHILLY START. AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER. HAVE ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE SLIGHT TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE FOR TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...POPS WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL GIVE WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY DEAMPLIFY/FLATTEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW...WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH FARTHER NORTH...IN THE WYOMING/MONTANA/DAKOTAS REGION...WHILE THE GFS HAS IT PEGGED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. THIS DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. FROM HERE THE GFS HAS THE LOW LOSING STRENGTH AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE INCREASING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM OUR SOUTH WILL BE THE RECIPE FOR DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE UPPER 40S...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO THE LOW 60S ON TUESDAY...AND THEN UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 BY WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE BY LATE WEEK...WITH WPC PLANTING THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST AND NORTH OF KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PULLING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THIS WILL WORK TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS BRING IN SOME PRECIP CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER...BUT KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THEY ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE. COULDN/T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS AS WE START TO TAP INTO SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR STRONG...JUST POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS MIXING DOWN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IMPROVEMENT WILL GENERALLY OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON FOLLOWING SUNRISE...WITH SJS HANGING ONTO MVFR CONDITIONS THE LONGEST. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO THREATEN THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT SME...FOR THIS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
135 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO ADDRESS THE SPRINKLES FALLING FROM THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE CLEARING MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH HIGHER CIGS SOUTHWEST. ALSO ADDED IN THE LATEST T AND TD GUIDANCE FROM THE SHORTBLEND...NUDGING THESE BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLEARING EXPANDING AND WORKING SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...HAVE LOWERED SKY COVER...WITH THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE BETTER CLEARING POTENTIAL NEAR THE BLUEGRASS. A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE HRRR ATTEMPTS TO CAPTURE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EXPANDED WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE. HAVE INCLUDED A POCKET OF SPRINKLES SLOWLY WORKING SOUTH AND FADING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE HRRR HINTS AT. LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET...ALTHOUGH DID EXPAND THE UPPER 20S A BIT FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN THE DECENT CLEARING TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REIGN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOME CLEARING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND SOME OF THIS THINNING MAY WORK IN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ALONE FOR NOW...HOWEVER READINGS ARE RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST SO WILL TOUCH THESE UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN BLEND BACK INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST. WILL WAIT A COUPLE MORE HOURS AND SEE IF ANY OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS A BIT MILDER BEFORE ADJUSTING THE LOWS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAD LED TO A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY JUST TO OUR NORTH...BUT THIS HAS DISSIPATED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS IOWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE BY TOMORROW. MOISTURE AND LIFT AND MAY SCRAPE OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THUS...WILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER WET WEATHER TO SPEAK OF IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TO OUR EAST...COLD ADVECTION WILL DRAG SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SKIES LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT MORE BREAKS WILL BE SEEN BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SKIES START TO CLEAR OFF. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FROST. COOP GUIDANCE HAS AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...AND CERTAINLY CANNOT DISCOUNT THIS POSSIBILITY. THUS...WILL PUT A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN THERE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGES STAYING IN THE UPPER 20S. REGARDLESS...THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTEREST OR OUTDOOR PLANTS WILL WANT TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT ANY EARLY PLANTS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL GIVE WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY DEAMPLIFY/FLATTEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW...WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH FARTHER NORTH...IN THE WYOMING/MONTANA/DAKOTAS REGION...WHILE THE GFS HAS IT PEGGED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. THIS DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. FROM HERE THE GFS HAS THE LOW LOSING STRENGTH AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE INCREASING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM OUR SOUTH WILL BE THE RECIPE FOR DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE UPPER 40S...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO THE LOW 60S ON TUESDAY...AND THEN UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 BY WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE BY LATE WEEK...WITH WPC PLANTING THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST AND NORTH OF KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PULLING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THIS WILL WORK TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS BRING IN SOME PRECIP CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER...BUT KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THEY ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE. COULDN/T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS AS WE START TO TAP INTO SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR STRONG...JUST POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS MIXING DOWN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IMPROVEMENT WILL GENERALLY OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON FOLLOWING SUNRISE...WITH SJS HANGING ONTO MVFR CONDITIONS THE LONGEST. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO THREATEN THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT SME...FOR THIS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
402 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK RDG AXIS OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN GENERAL TROFFING IN ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW OVER THE E HALF OF CANADA AND CLOSED LO OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN POLAR BRANCH FLOW DOMINATING THE CONUS...ALL DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPR RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. THERE IS A SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING ACRS THE UPR LKS. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON LOCAL 00Z RAOBS... PWAT AS LO AS 0.11 INCH AT APX /ABOUT 40 PCT OF NORMAL/...SKIES ARE MOCLR. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BLO NORMAL AND INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AT THE COLDER INTERIOR SPOTS WITH LGT WINDS. A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IN CANADA IS DIGGING THRU NW ONTARIO...BUT THE SHARPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS ON TRACK TO STAY N OF UPR MI. THE WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP...BUT UPSTREAM OBS SHOW LTL IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER. THERE ARE MORE CLDS AND SOME SCT SN SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NW IN ONTARIO/MANITOBA AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO THAT AREA. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON PCPN/LES CHCS TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND COLD FNT NOW DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA/ NW ONTARIO. TODAY...SHRTWV IN NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO THE SE...WITH FIRST COLD FNT CROSSING THE CWA THIS MRNG. SINCE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE N OF UPR MI...THERE WL NO MSTR INFLOW TO MOISTEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...AND THERE WL BE LTL IF ANY LLVL CNVGC ALONG THE FIRST COLD FROPA...SUSPECT THE BULK OF THE MODELS SHOWING A DRY DAY ARE ON TRACK. WL RETAIN SOME SCHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE LAND CWA THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF SOME DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -11C BY 00Z SUN DESPITE FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 NW FLOW. TNGT...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SECOND COLD FNT REACHING THE NRN CWA ARND 06Z...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ARND -14C BY 12Z MON OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. BUT SINCE LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC WL DOMINATE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV...FCST H85 TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR LES AND THE TRAILING AIRMASS WL BE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH MARGINAL LLVL CNVGC FCST...EXPECT NO MORE THAN CHC POPS FOR THE FROPA AND LES IN ITS WAKE. SINCE THE BULK OF THE COOLING WL IMPACT AREAS E OF MQT...WL CARRY THE HIER CHC POPS IN THAT AREA. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SN EVEN IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MQT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MONDAY...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CROSSING THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL USHER IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MAINLY THE NNW TO WNW WIND SNOW BELTS IN THE MORNING. WAA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BACKING WINDS WILL WILL QUICKLY END THE LES BY LATE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DUSTING ALONG MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SLOPING LAYER OF FGEN BELOW 600 HPA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED OVER A 4 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A VERY WET SNOWFALL THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL...WET BULB TEMPS CREEP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ON TUESDAY...SO A MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY A SWITCH OVER TO RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...CHIEFLY DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE INITIAL SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM PRODUCE A WEAKER SOLUTION AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOWS SIGNS OF TRYING TO CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW. GIVEN DRY EASTERLY FLOW FROM ONTARIO...PRECIP MAY FAIL TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE CWA IF THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...PLACING UPPER MI ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND IN A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN WITH A BOUT OF MIXED PRECIP FOR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO DROP BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAFS SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS FROM FALLING TOO LOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW FLURRIES/-SHSN AT EACH TAF SITE BUT LIMITED MOISTURE GIVES LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS TO VEER TO THE N TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PAIR OF LO PRES TROUGHS. AS A HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON MON...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. AS A WAVE OF LO PRES RIDES ALONG A FRONT TO THE S OF UPPER MI ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHILE HI PRES BUILDS INTO NW ONTARIO... WINDS OVER LAKE SUP WILL BECOME ENE UP TO 25 KTS. NE WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WILL THEN BE THE RULE FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU UNDER A RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN PERSISTENT HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND A LO PRES MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KLUBER AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
346 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A STRATUS DECK INTO MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO IN ITS WAKE. THIS AFTERNOON...AREAS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI AS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OVER PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE AND SRN DELTA COUNTIES AIDED BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THIN AND CELLULAR LOOK TO THESE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SUGGEST THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIDED ON COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE HIGH-RES CANADIAN WHICH HAD LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SPREAD WEAK LIFT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/FAR NORTH CWA. AS WINDS SHIFT WNW BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO -11C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO WRN UPPER MI AND THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES/ISOLD SHSN AS 85H TEMPS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE SHARPER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE LAKE INTO ONTARIO EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA ON SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MONDAY...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CROSSING THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL USHER IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MAINLY THE NNW TO WNW WIND SNOW BELTS IN THE MORNING. WAA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BACKING WINDS WILL WILL QUICKLY END THE LES BY LATE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DUSTING ALONG MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SLOPING LAYER OF FGEN BELOW 600 HPA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED OVER A 4 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A VERY WET SNOWFALL THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL...WET BULB TEMPS CREEP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ON TUESDAY...SO A MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY A SWITCH OVER TO RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...CHIEFLY DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE INITIAL SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM PRODUCE A WEAKER SOLUTION AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOWS SIGNS OF TRYING TO CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW. GIVEN DRY EASTERLY FLOW FROM ONTARIO...PRECIP MAY FAIL TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE CWA IF THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...PLACING UPPER MI ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND IN A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN WITH A BOUT OF MIXED PRECIP FOR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO DROP BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAFS SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS FROM FALLING TOO LOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW FLURRIES/-SHSN AT EACH TAF SITE BUT LIMITED MOISTURE GIVES LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY MAINLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS UNTIL E-NE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...KLUBER AVIATION...KC MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A STRATUS DECK INTO MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO IN ITS WAKE. THIS AFTERNOON...AREAS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI AS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OVER PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE AND SRN DELTA COUNTIES AIDED BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THIN AND CELLULAR LOOK TO THESE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SUGGEST THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIDED ON COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE HIGH-RES CANADIAN WHICH HAD LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SPREAD WEAK LIFT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/FAR NORTH CWA. AS WINDS SHIFT WNW BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO -11C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO WRN UPPER MI AND THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES/ISOLD SHSN AS 85H TEMPS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE SHARPER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE LAKE INTO ONTARIO EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA ON SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 HAVE AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA SUN EVENING INTO EARLY SUN NIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCEMENT/EFFECT SNOW TO NW WIND SNOWBELTS. 850MB TEMPS ARE -10C TO -12C AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THEN DROP TO -13C TO -15C LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS TURN WLY BY 00Z TUE. MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...SO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MODELS DEPICT 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS SUN NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS DURING THE DAY MON. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S WHERE SNOW FALLS AND HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 30 N TO THE UPPER 30S SCENTRAL. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AND WILL MOVE ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS OR JUST S OF THE CWA AT THE SFC. FGEN FORCING AND WAA ALONG THE SLOPED FRONT WILL ASSIST IN PROVIDING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW BETWEEN 06Z AND 21Z TUE...MOST AREAS WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW IN 3-6 HOURS. MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW DUE TO PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT/FGEN/SHORTWAVE...DETAILS OF WHERE THE BEST SNOW FALL IS UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z/19 GFS IS FARTHER N AND KEEPS THE WI BORDER AREAS DRIEST (BUT STILL SEEING PRECIP) WHILE THE 00Z/19 ECMWF IS FARTHER S AND KEEPS THE NRN TIER DRIEST. THE 12Z/19 NAM COMES IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR PLACEMENT OF BEST PRECIP. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS AND BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS POINT. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE THE GREATEST SNOW FALLS...WHICH MAY BE DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND E...AND IF THAT FALLS IN 3-6 HOURS IT COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. SNOW LOOKS TO MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE DAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE FAR SCENTRAL. WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE WEEK...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE WED NIGHT-FRI TIME FRAME (DEPENDING ON MODEL). MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE THE BEST PRECIP (AROUND AN INCH OF QPF WITH AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR MAKING SNOW THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE) ALONG OR SE OF THE SERN BORDER OF THE CWA...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY TRENDING NW. A LOT OF VARIABLES AT PLAY FOR 5-6 DAYS OUT...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP CLOSELY MONITORING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO DROP BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT EACH OF THE TAFS SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS FROM FALLING TOO LOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW FLURRIES/-SHSN AT EACH TAF SITE BUT LIMITED MOISTURE GIVES LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY MAINLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS UNTIL E-NE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...KC MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 PCPN CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO MENTION DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TEMPS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW THAT DROPPED SEWD ACROSS IOWA SATURDAY WAS OVER NERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SNOW HAD GENERALLY ENDED IN OUR AREA. WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ISOLD FLURRIES THIS MORNING OR AN ISOLD SNOW SHOWER IN SWRN IA THIS AFTN...BUT GENERALLY MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES TODAY SEEM MINIMAL. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EWD TODAY. NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH. THAT RIDGE WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EAST OR NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND MIXING SHOULD NOT BE AS DEEP THERE. FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE SD BORDER AND UPPER 70S AT THE KS BORDER. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THIS PERIOD IS MORE ACTIVE...WITH SEVERAL PCPN CHANCES. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM WED INTO THU MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NIGHT NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE PROFILE INCREASE. 500 MB FLOW WILL BE DIFLUENT OVER OUR AREA TUE NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO CO. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO INCREASE BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS POINT TUE NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT FCST SOUNDINGS. IN GENERAL... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR WED. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE 500 MB LOW AND HAS THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER EAST BY 00Z THU. PATTERN SUGGEST SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE OVER SERN NE AND SWRN IA WED...AND THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE. BEYOND WED...WILL GIVE THE 00Z ECMWF THE MOST WEIGHT FOR DETAILS OF THE FCST. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH BY LATE WED AFTN FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NW 1/2 OF NERN NE. SNOW CHANCES LOOK DECENT MOST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN. PCPN SHOULD LINGER THU MORNING BUT END BY AFTN BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING. NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KOMA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1228 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF PERIOD. LGT NORTH WIND OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY TRANSITIONING TO WEAK/MODERATE N/NE FLOW DRG THE AFTERNOON. LGT NORTH WIND AGAIN BY EARLY TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ DISCUSSION...TEXT PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AS THEY WERE RUNNING TOO COLD AT THAT TIME. BASICALLY HAVE USED RUC13 DATA (WHICH IS WORKING OUT OK FOR NOW)...BUT THEN BLENDED THE MODEL MORE TOWARD FORECAST LOWS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...OVERALL TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR LOW WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT. DID ADJUST CLOUD COVER FOR GENERALLY DIMINISHING OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. LEFT REST OF FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW. MARINE...WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE FOR THE BAYS/WATERWAYS SINCE OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST FORECAST DATA SUPPORT THIS. SCA CONTINUES OFFSHORE. REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS WELL AS CLOUDS...WITH MAYBE SOME MID LEVEL CIGS AT KLRD (BUT MORE LIKELY SCATTERED). GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z...AND FOR THE MOST PART BE 11 KNOTS OR LESS BY THEN (KCRP ALWAYS A BIT HIGHER AS USUAL). WINDS BECOME MORE NE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERALL...NOT TOO MUCH GOING ON...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING SOME OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER BEING MET...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED IT. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND MAY CONTINUE A LITTLE PAST 00Z. INCLUDED 10 POPS WITH MENTION OF WX THROUGH 03Z FOR THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOLER AIR WILL SPILL INTO SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT DROPPING LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE COAST WHERE LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY AND SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR TOMORROW...BUT CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY CHILLY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE BAYS AND WATERWAYS...BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...PUTTING US BACK INTO RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL TRIGGER A FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S WEST OF I-37 ON TUESDAY THEN OVER THE REST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THAT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE COASTAL BEND BY MIDWEEK. MODELS INDICATE WEAK SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. MORE DRY AND COOL AIR COMES IN AFTER THIS FRONT...PULLING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO EASTER WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TIMING ON THESE MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 67 43 72 57 78 / 0 0 0 10 10 VICTORIA 65 38 70 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 10 LAREDO 67 44 75 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALICE 67 42 74 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 10 ROCKPORT 66 49 68 60 75 / 0 0 0 10 10 COTULLA 67 42 75 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 KINGSVILLE 67 44 74 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 10 NAVY CORPUS 66 52 69 60 75 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
10 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .DISCUSSION... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES AGAIN TODAY... ...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT/MONDAY... ...MUCH COOLER/DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK... CURRENT...REGIONAL RADAR MOSIAC LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE THE PAST TWO HOURS. TWO MAIN AREAS OF PRECIP FROM EASTERN SEMINOLE AND ORANGE COUNTIES INTO NORTH BREVARD AND IN MARTIN COUNTY. LOOP MOTION SHOWS THAT THESE SHOWERS SHOULD TRANSITION INTO THE COASTAL WATERS NEXT HOUR OR TWO. BUOY AND CMAN MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND A WEST WIND AT THE BUOYS 20NM EAST OF THE CAPE AND AT SEBASTIAN INLET. THE 12Z/8AM NCEP SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT STILL NORTH IN THE NORTHEAST GULF...THE BIG BEND AREA AND NORTH FLORIDA AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EVERGLADES AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. WILL UPDATE THE NORTH FORECAST AREA TO SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/20 POP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP THE HIGHER POP FOR THE CENTER AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...UNLESS THE RADAR TREND FORCES LAST MINUTE CHANGES. UPDATE... .AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS AND TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITY KMCO-KTIX-KXMR SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON. .MARINE...THE BUOYS...NOAA AND SCRIPPS...SHOW WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. WINDS LOCAL WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES WEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT TO THE NORTH NEARS AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 332 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 CURRENT...MILD AND MOIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH VERY LIGHT SWRLY WINDS. NEXRAD 88D SHOWS ISOLATED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. TODAY-TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNRISE MON MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND SHOULD LIE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEHIND IT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND NORTHERN GOMEX. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND ANY LIGHTNING STORM THREAT. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB WILL STILL BE BETWEEN -11C AND -13C WITH SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL POOL TO AROUND 1.70 INCHES AHEAD/ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SKIES WILL CONTINUE MCLOUDY...THOUGH ANY PEAKS OF SUNSHINE MAY ACT TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVERALL WEAK. WILL INSTALL 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS ALONG I-4 NORTHWARD INCREASING TO 50 TO 80 PERCENT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MARTIN COUNTY. WHILE THE THUNDER THREAT WILL BE LOW OVERALL...BELIEVE GREATEST CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOUTHWARD FROM ORLANDO THROUGH THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST. MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. WSW/W SURFACE FLOW WILL OCCUR WITH WINDS BECOMING WNW BEHIND IT LATER TODAY AND A BIT MORE NWRLY TONIGHT. EXPECT A WIND SURGE LATER THIS EVENING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH WIND SPEEDS BECOMING BREEZY 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE M-U70S ACROSS I-4 AND U70S TO L80S SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE COVERAGE WARNING AREA. MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING OVER MARTIN COUNTY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE M-U40S NORTH OF I-4...U40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE INTERIOR/SPACE COAST...EXCEPT L/M50S TREASURE COAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WINDS TOWARD EARLY MON MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE L-M40S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. MON-MON NIGHT...DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR MASS WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. ASIDE FROM SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT THE START OF THE DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S (ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR MID MARCH). RIDGE AXIS WILL SIT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AT SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THANKS TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 40S MOST AREA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM MELBOURNE SOUTH THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST. TUE-THU...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE JUST TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER MIDWEEK ALLOWING TEMPS AND MOISTURE TO MODIFY. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE BEGINNING THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH OF ORLANDO. FRI-SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE WORKWEEK AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS POINT TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES TRAVERSING OVER THE AREA LOOK TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THIS FAR OUT. && .AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON SOUTHWARD FROM KMCO. A SMALL THREAT OF THUNDER WILL EXIST TOO...MAINLY SOUTH OF KMCO. TEMPO MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PCPN TODAY. LIGHT W/WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMING WNW/NW BEHIND IT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AND FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS PAST MID EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR THIS MORNING FOR MVFR CIGS AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL COVERAGE OF THIS. SKY CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN THE PENINSULA. && .MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERY OFFSHORE MOVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FORECAST WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE...MAINLY CAPE SOUTHWARD. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GREATEST CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS SOUTHWARD FROM SEBASTIAN INLET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING. GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH WINDS BECOMING WNW/NW LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 6-12 KTS AREAWIDE TODAY...INCREASING BEHIND A WIND SURGE TONIGHT TO 25-30 KTS OFFSHORE AND 20-25 KTS NEAR SHORE AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OPEN ATLC LATE TONIGHT. TO KEEP ADVISORIES CLEAN...WILL INITIATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE LEGS BEGINNING AT 02Z/10PM TONIGHT. INITIAL SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE...GRADUALLY BUILDING LATE OVERNIGHT TO 6-8 FT OFFSHORE AND 5-6 FT NEAR SHORE ALL BY DAYBREAK MON MORNING. MON...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WITH HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RELAX LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. SCA`S LIKELY TO BE SCALED BACK AS WE HEAD INTO LATE MON NIGHT. TUE-THU...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX MIDWEEK AS NORTH WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHEAST. WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY BUT COULD SEE A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM BY WED NIGHT AS MOISTURE SLOWLY REBUILDS INTO THE AREA. && .FIRE WEATHER...TONIGHT...WNW/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEHIND A RECENT COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT. MON-TUE...MUCH COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK AHEAD. MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF MIN RHS IN THE M-U20S ACROSS INTERIOR COUNTIES AND RANGING FROM THE M-U30S ALONG THE EAST COAST. NW/N WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY ON MON AS THE PGRAD REMAINS TIGHT. DEPENDING ON ERC VALUES ON MON...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS (WIND/RH) MON AFTERNOON. RHS BEGIN A SLOW/GRADUAL RECOVERY ON TUE WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL MAY SEE AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALL INTO THE U20S/L30S WELL INTO THE INTERIOR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 47 64 44 / 50 10 0 0 MCO 80 50 67 43 / 40 10 0 0 MLB 78 50 65 45 / 70 10 0 0 VRB 78 54 65 48 / 70 20 0 0 LEE 77 50 67 41 / 40 0 0 0 SFB 77 49 66 43 / 40 10 0 0 ORL 79 49 67 43 / 40 10 0 0 FPR 80 54 65 48 / 70 20 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM- FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM- SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM. && $$ LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1044 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 Upper level low and associated showers pulling off to the south this morning. Some clearing behind the showers off to the north, but expect will fill in with cu this afternoon. The first day of spring is a little cooler than the past week...and a couple of degrees below normal. Large changes in the forecast are not expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 07z/2am surface analysis shows trough axis bisecting the KILX CWA from near Galesburg to just south of Paris. Scattered light rain showers are occurring in the vicinity of this feature, with a few obs occasionally reporting light snow. With upper levels continuing to cool as closed 500mb low tracks southeastward along the Mississippi River, think a light rain/snow mix will continue through the early morning. Due to surface temps above freezing and relatively warm soil conditions, no accumulation is expected. The trough will gradually settle southward today, pushing any lingering light precip south of the CWA by midday. Based on current radar loops and latest HRRR forecast, have carried low chance PoPs along/south of a Jacksonville to Mattoon line this morning, then have gone dry everywhere for the afternoon. Skies are currently cloudy: however, a dry low-level airmass to the northeast has helped skies clear over Michigan and northern Indiana. As the trough axis sinks southward and winds become northeasterly, this drier air will try to work its way into central Illinois. Think portions of the NE CWA may partially clear for a time this morning, before diurnal CU redevelops, leading to a partly to mostly cloudy day. High temperatures will again be below normal for this time of year in the middle 40s. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 High pressure will build into the region tonight, resulting in clearing skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s. The cool/dry weather will continue into Monday before the high shifts to the east and a strong southerly return flow develops Monday night into Tuesday. Pressure gradient between departing high and developing low over the Plains will result in sustained southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph on Tuesday, with gusts reaching 30 mph at times. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and a good deal of sunshine, high temperatures will soar into the 60s. A frontal boundary will sag southward into north-central Illinois Tuesday night. As increasing moisture flows northward and interacts with the front, a few showers will be possible along/north of a Peoria to Bloomington line. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the entire CWA on Wednesday as the airmass becomes more unstable and low pressure slowly approaches from the west. With strongest forcing remaining further north and west, have only carried slight chance PoPs across most of the area, with higher PoPs confined to the far north in closer conjunction to the baroclinic zone. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for the end of the week, particularly concerning the speed of an approaching short-wave trough and how fast it will push a frontal boundary through central Illinois. All models have sped up this process from previous runs, with the 00z Mar 20 GFS now becoming the fastest. The GFS shows a 991mb over Lake Michigan, with the trailing cold front along the Illinois/Indiana border by 12z Thu. Meanwhile, both the GEM and ECMWF have quickened from their prior runs, but are about 12 hours slower than the GFS. The ECMWF has the low over central Illinois and the GEM places it over northern Missouri 12z Thu. Given that the GFS has made such an abrupt change from its solution just 24 hours ago, prefer to side with the slower GEM/ECMWF. As a result, am focusing the greatest rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday when likely PoPs for showers/thunder are warranted. Will linger lower rain chances into Thursday night as the system departs, followed by a return to dry weather for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 Low VFR cigs with tempo MVFR cigs this morning in isolated light rain and snow showers. The precip threat ends by 14z with forecast soundings suggesting some decent low level mixing occurring which should result in higher based cigs this afternoon (3500-5000 ft). The weather system producing the cloud cover and light precip should push south of our area by later this afternoon with a decrease in cloud cover expected tonight as weak high pressure settles in from the west. Surface winds will be northerly today at 10 to 15 kts with a light northwest flow expected tonight. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HJS SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
610 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SHORT TERM... 306 AM CDT THROUGH MONDAY... FAIRLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WHILE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES BEGIN TUESDAY WITH A BIG WARMUP ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN RACE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH IS NOTED STRETCHING FROM NEAR CMI NORTHWEST TO PIA THEN MLI. A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA HOWEVER THOSE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BUILDING OVERHEAD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE TODAY...AND DEEP MIXING CAPPED BY A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM OCCURRING TODAY DESPITE SOME MODELS LIKE THE HRRR TRYING TO BREAK OUT MODEST POPCORN CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S TODAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE FRONT BUT IF ANYTHING THERE SEEMS POTENTIAL TO GO WARMER IF WE SEE MORE SUNSHINE. KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO RIGHT AROUND 40 AGAIN IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT PROVIDING CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. ON MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE THE GRADIENT TO REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...BUT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY SHUNT ITS INLAND PROGRESS. THIS MAKES TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY FOR THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE LAKE AS ITS UNSURE HOW MUCH PROGRESS THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE. AREAS UNAFFECTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE...BUT NEAR THE LAKE WILL ONLY CALL FOR MID 40S. DEUBELBEISS && .LONG TERM... 306 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING AT LEAST A DAY OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS A STABLE WAVE TRANSLATES EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SERVE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO CAUSING A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA OR VERY NEARBY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS IT DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS DISTANCE...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODELS. GFS TRACKS THE LOW RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAS DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK WHICH TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN THURSDAY. A LOT WILL HINGE ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER VS MIXED PRECIP/SNOW...60S VS 30S FOR TEMPS. AT THIS DISTANCE...MAINTAINED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AND WILL HAVE TO HONE IN FURTHER ON THE DETAILS AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. DEUBELBEISS && .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS... ONLY MINOR AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING IS DETAILS OF WIND DIRECTION FOR ORD/MDW TODAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH AN EXPECTED TURN TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS WITHIN BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC NORTH FLOW. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO BE AROUND 10 KT...GENERALLY 9-13 KT. GRADIENT WEAKENS TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT WEST- NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH LIGHT/VARIABLE PERIODS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...STILL SEEING SOME FEW020-025 DRIFTING IN FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECREASING VFR CLOUD COVER. RATZER && .MARINE... 200 AM CDT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY...THEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY GALES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING SOUTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...ALLOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. WEATHER FOR THE WESTERN LAKES WILL THEN TURN MORE ACTIVE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...WITH A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST AND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL DEEPEN AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 25-30 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PASSES. AS THE STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON MOST OF THE LAKE...AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE 30 KT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WINDS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER...IN THE REGION OF WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW...THOUGH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES DO APPEAR LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW SCOOTS BY TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
602 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 07z/2am surface analysis shows trough axis bisecting the KILX CWA from near Galesburg to just south of Paris. Scattered light rain showers are occurring in the vicinity of this feature, with a few obs occasionally reporting light snow. With upper levels continuing to cool as closed 500mb low tracks southeastward along the Mississippi River, think a light rain/snow mix will continue through the early morning. Due to surface temps above freezing and relatively warm soil conditions, no accumulation is expected. The trough will gradually settle southward today, pushing any lingering light precip south of the CWA by midday. Based on current radar loops and latest HRRR forecast, have carried low chance PoPs along/south of a Jacksonville to Mattoon line this morning, then have gone dry everywhere for the afternoon. Skies are currently cloudy: however, a dry low-level airmass to the northeast has helped skies clear over Michigan and northern Indiana. As the trough axis sinks southward and winds become northeasterly, this drier air will try to work its way into central Illinois. Think portions of the NE CWA may partially clear for a time this morning, before diurnal CU redevelops, leading to a partly to mostly cloudy day. High temperatures will again be below normal for this time of year in the middle 40s. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 High pressure will build into the region tonight, resulting in clearing skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s. The cool/dry weather will continue into Monday before the high shifts to the east and a strong southerly return flow develops Monday night into Tuesday. Pressure gradient between departing high and developing low over the Plains will result in sustained southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph on Tuesday, with gusts reaching 30 mph at times. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and a good deal of sunshine, high temperatures will soar into the 60s. A frontal boundary will sag southward into north-central Illinois Tuesday night. As increasing moisture flows northward and interacts with the front, a few showers will be possible along/north of a Peoria to Bloomington line. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the entire CWA on Wednesday as the airmass becomes more unstable and low pressure slowly approaches from the west. With strongest forcing remaining further north and west, have only carried slight chance PoPs across most of the area, with higher PoPs confined to the far north in closer conjunction to the baroclinic zone. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for the end of the week, particularly concerning the speed of an approaching short-wave trough and how fast it will push a frontal boundary through central Illinois. All models have sped up this process from previous runs, with the 00z Mar 20 GFS now becoming the fastest. The GFS shows a 991mb over Lake Michigan, with the trailing cold front along the Illinois/Indiana border by 12z Thu. Meanwhile, both the GEM and ECMWF have quickened from their prior runs, but are about 12 hours slower than the GFS. The ECMWF has the low over central Illinois and the GEM places it over northern Missouri 12z Thu. Given that the GFS has made such an abrupt change from its solution just 24 hours ago, prefer to side with the slower GEM/ECMWF. As a result, am focusing the greatest rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday when likely PoPs for showers/thunder are warranted. Will linger lower rain chances into Thursday night as the system departs, followed by a return to dry weather for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 Low VFR cigs with tempo MVFR cigs this morning in isolated light rain and snow showers. The precip threat ends by 14z with forecast soundings suggesting some decent low level mixing occurring which should result in higher based cigs this afternoon (3500-5000 ft). The weather system producing the cloud cover and light precip should push south of our area by later this afternoon with a decrease in cloud cover expected tonight as weak high pressure settles in from the west. Surface winds will be northerly today at 10 to 15 kts with a light northwest flow expected tonight. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
605 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 316 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 07Z water vapor imagery shows a closed upper low over northeast MO with a shortwave trough rotating through east central KS. An upper level ridge was gradually amplifying over the western half of the U.S. as an upper trough sets up over the eastern Pacific. Surface obs indicated the center of a cold high pressure system was over the NEB panhandle with some cold air advection occurring at the surface. For today and tonight, the weather should be quiet with no real sensible weather anticipated. There is a consensus among the models that any forcing for precip will shifting east with the closed upper low and the upper level ridge should replace it as it propagates east into the plains. Additionally there is no moisture advection anticipated into an already dry airmass. About the only thing to watch is for some lingering mid clouds on the back side of the upper low across eastern KS. We may start to see some weak warm air advection today as the center of the surface ridge passes to the south and winds shift to the west. However models are slow to bring much warmer air into the region as as the warm air advection occurs late in the day and 850MB temps remain in the -2C to -4C range. So even with deep mixing through 850MB, highs are only expected to be around 50 this afternoon. Freezing temps are expected again for Monday morning as skies clear and the boundary layer radiates out. Although lows should be a tad warmer since there is expected to be a south and southwest wind to keep some mixing. This is likely to impact locations up on hills more so than spots within the KS river valley. With this in mind, have lows in the mid 20s for the low lying areas and lows around 30 for locations that are slightly more elevated and exposed to the wind. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 316 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 Main concern for the week is fire weather conditions being in the elevated to potentially critical through Wednesday this week for portions of the area. This is in part to an upper trough entering the Pacific NW, developing an elongated sfc trough from British Columbia through the western plains region. Southerly winds are expected to increase between 20 and 25 mph along and south of the Interstate 70 corridor with weaker winds to the north. Some uncertainty exists on RH values Monday as moisture advection increases dewpoints into the 30s during the afternoon. Latest runs of the MET guidance combined with RAW guidance are showing slightly cooler highs in the upper 60s. I am siding closer to the MAV guidance given how it has handled the abnormally warmer temps seen in previous forecasts. So with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s, min RH values range between 25 and 30 percent. Because of this reasoning, confidence in location of a fire weather watch was too low to issue. Will be considering a watch in the next forecast period. For Tuesday and Wednesday, fire danger concerns increase as winds remain gusty during the overnight periods and speeds during the afternoon are likely between 15 to 25 mph sustained. On Tuesday, these winds center over far east central Kansas where on Wednesday they spread westward towards central Kansas. Stronger mixing aloft will overcome the moisture advection especially north central Kansas on Tuesday with min RH in the lower 20s, becoming more widespread on Wednesday as the dry line/cold front enters the CWA. Its likely that we will have fire weather headlines sometime during this three day period. Focus shifts to precip chances as the upper trough axis tracks over Kansas late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Confidence in this system is still low as now the ECMWF has become more inconsistent with the Canadian in the speed of the system, now being considered the slower solutions. With the slower speeds comes better dynamics and forcing with the wave, developing a nice deformation zone on the northwest side of the low during the day Thursday. Meanwhile the GFS is much faster and not so realistic with how quickly it ends precip. Current forecast overall shows increasing uncertainty that much of the area could be in the dry slot of the system, receiving little to no precip. Therefore trended pops down Wednesday evening, especially over east central areas. If any precip occurs during early evening hours, steepening mid level lapse rates could produce an isolated storm. After midnight, temps quickly fall in the lower to middle 30s, suggesting a rain snow mix. The next upper shortwave trough is quick to follow for the weekend. The positive tilt of the system and its progressive nature would suggest a chance for some light rain, especially Saturday evening with the best forcing centered over the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued at 605 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 The RAP and NAM suggest the MVFR stratocu will linger over TOP and FOE until around 15Z. This seems to line up with the current satellite trends. Once the lower clouds move east, VFR conditions should prevail due to a lack of forcing and dry air in the lower atmosphere. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Bowen AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
810 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 UPDATE THE FORECAST PRIMARILY FOR SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY WITH WEAKNESS RUNNING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. ALONG THIS...NORTHWEST AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THIS WAY. CLOSER TO HOME...A FEW SPRINKLES OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER CLOUDS EAST OF JKL. ELSEWHERE... THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP AND RETREATING EAST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOUND TO THE WEST. THE CLEARING IS HELPING TO DROP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF EXTRA DEGREES WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE NORTHWEST OF JACKSON WHILE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE NOTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ALSO VARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTH AND FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH. THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WITH A SLEW OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY WILL BRUSH THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS WILL THEN REBOUND INTO MONDAY...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS SOME OF THE MORE RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TO FOLLOW. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COOL END TO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE WORST OF THE CHILL. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL SLIP JUST EAST OF SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND LIKELY BRUSH THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. FOR THIS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...BUT...DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW/TROUGH PASSING BY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY HAVE ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THIS. THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT BY EVENING AND SETS THE STAGE FOR A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES A GOOD BET ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE WX GRIDS AND WILL MENTION IT IN THE HWO AS OUR FROST FREEZE HEADLINE PROGRAM WILL NOT START FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT SET UP AS THE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY... DESPITE THE CHILLY START. AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER. HAVE ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE SLIGHT TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE FOR TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...POPS WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH MAYBE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...THEREFORE LOWERED VALLEY TEMPS GIVEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR DECOUPLING. ALSO DID KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR MAINLY SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY SPOTS. THIS SURFACE HIGH DOES BEGIN TO SKIRT EAST AND WE BEGIN TO GET IN THE RETURN FLOW SIDE BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A WEAK/FLATTENED OUT RIDGE ALOFT THAT WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. THESE WILL ALL COMBINE WITH DECENT MIXING OF WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP OBTAINED OUT OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THE OVERALL DRIER DAY RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY WHERE RH VALUES RUN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND WINDS GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. WE THEN TURN OUR FOCUS TO THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. MODELS DO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM STILL...BUT SEEM TO HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE WITH THE 00Z GFS WHICH IS NEARLY 24 HOURS FASTER NOW...AND THIS IS RELATED TO THE AMPLITUDE AND OPENNESS OF THE TROUGH IN THE LATEST RUNS. THIS TREND BEGAN LAST NIGHT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND HAS CONTINUED IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE TODAY. RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THE MODEL BLEND AND THIS BRINGS THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK WITH LIKELY POPS GIVEN THAT WE CONTINUE TO GAIN RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE BEST FORCING WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION...AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW GETS PUSHED INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL THINK IT IS WORTH A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE T GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6 TO 6.5 C/KM RANGE. THAT SAID EARLY STAGES BLENDED QPF LOOKS TO RANGE IN THE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A INCH RANGE...WHICH SEEMS TO MATCH UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CIPS ANALOGS UNDER THIS REGIME. BEHIND THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON TRENDS THINK TEMPS COULD BE COOLER THAN BLEND ADVERTISES. THIS AS 850 TEMPS ARE POISED TO DROP INTO THE -2 TO -5 C RANGE. THE COOL DOWN LOOKS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT WILL PUSH EAST FOLLOWING SUNRISE. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO THREATEN THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT SME...FOR THIS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
723 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK RDG AXIS OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN GENERAL TROFFING IN ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW OVER THE E HALF OF CANADA AND CLOSED LO OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN POLAR BRANCH FLOW DOMINATING THE CONUS...ALL DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPR RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. THERE IS A SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING ACRS THE UPR LKS. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON LOCAL 00Z RAOBS... PWAT AS LO AS 0.11 INCH AT APX /ABOUT 40 PCT OF NORMAL/...SKIES ARE MOCLR. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BLO NORMAL AND INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AT THE COLDER INTERIOR SPOTS WITH LGT WINDS. A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IN CANADA IS DIGGING THRU NW ONTARIO...BUT THE SHARPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS ON TRACK TO STAY N OF UPR MI. THE WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP...BUT UPSTREAM OBS SHOW LTL IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER. THERE ARE MORE CLDS AND SOME SCT SN SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NW IN ONTARIO/MANITOBA AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO THAT AREA. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON PCPN/LES CHCS TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND COLD FNT NOW DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA/ NW ONTARIO. TODAY...SHRTWV IN NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO THE SE...WITH FIRST COLD FNT CROSSING THE CWA THIS MRNG. SINCE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE N OF UPR MI...THERE WL NO MSTR INFLOW TO MOISTEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...AND THERE WL BE LTL IF ANY LLVL CNVGC ALONG THE FIRST COLD FROPA...SUSPECT THE BULK OF THE MODELS SHOWING A DRY DAY ARE ON TRACK. WL RETAIN SOME SCHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE LAND CWA THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF SOME DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -11C BY 00Z SUN DESPITE FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 NW FLOW. TNGT...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SECOND COLD FNT REACHING THE NRN CWA ARND 06Z...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ARND -14C BY 12Z MON OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. BUT SINCE LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC WL DOMINATE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV...FCST H85 TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR LES AND THE TRAILING AIRMASS WL BE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH MARGINAL LLVL CNVGC FCST...EXPECT NO MORE THAN CHC POPS FOR THE FROPA AND LES IN ITS WAKE. SINCE THE BULK OF THE COOLING WL IMPACT AREAS E OF MQT...WL CARRY THE HIER CHC POPS IN THAT AREA. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SN EVEN IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MQT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MONDAY...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CROSSING THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL USHER IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MAINLY THE NNW TO WNW WIND SNOW BELTS IN THE MORNING. WAA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BACKING WINDS WILL WILL QUICKLY END THE LES BY LATE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DUSTING ALONG MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SLOPING LAYER OF FGEN BELOW 600 HPA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED OVER A 4 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A VERY WET SNOWFALL THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL...WET BULB TEMPS CREEP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ON TUESDAY...SO A MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY A SWITCH OVER TO RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...CHIEFLY DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE INITIAL SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM PRODUCE A WEAKER SOLUTION AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOWS SIGNS OF TRYING TO CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW. GIVEN DRY EASTERLY FLOW FROM ONTARIO...PRECIP MAY FAIL TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE CWA IF THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...PLACING UPPER MI ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND IN A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN WITH A BOUT OF MIXED PRECIP FOR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE WNW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING WEAK COLD FNT MIGHT CAUSE SOME MVFR CIGS AT CMX THIS MRNG...DRYNESS OF AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB SUGGESTS VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVNG EVEN AS SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE CLDS DVLP WITH DAYTIME HEATING/INCRSG LLVL INSTABILITY. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR TNGT WL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS AND ALSO SOME -SHSN. BUT RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE INCOMING CHILLY AIR SHOULD LIMIT PCPN INTENSITY/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS TO VEER TO THE N TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PAIR OF LO PRES TROUGHS. AS A HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON MON...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. AS A WAVE OF LO PRES RIDES ALONG A FRONT TO THE S OF UPPER MI ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHILE HI PRES BUILDS INTO NW ONTARIO... WINDS OVER LAKE SUP WILL BECOME ENE UP TO 25 KTS. NE WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WILL THEN BE THE RULE FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU UNDER A RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN PERSISTENT HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND A LO PRES MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KLUBER AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 PCPN CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO MENTION DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TEMPS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW THAT DROPPED SEWD ACROSS IOWA SATURDAY WAS OVER NERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SNOW HAD GENERALLY ENDED IN OUR AREA. WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ISOLD FLURRIES THIS MORNING OR AN ISOLD SNOW SHOWER IN SWRN IA THIS AFTN...BUT GENERALLY MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES TODAY SEEM MINIMAL. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EWD TODAY. NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH. THAT RIDGE WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EAST OR NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND MIXING SHOULD NOT BE AS DEEP THERE. FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE SD BORDER AND UPPER 70S AT THE KS BORDER. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THIS PERIOD IS MORE ACTIVE...WITH SEVERAL PCPN CHANCES. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM WED INTO THU MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NIGHT NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE PROFILE INCREASE. 500 MB FLOW WILL BE DIFLUENT OVER OUR AREA TUE NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO CO. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO INCREASE BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS POINT TUE NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT FCST SOUNDINGS. IN GENERAL... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR WED. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE 500 MB LOW AND HAS THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER EAST BY 00Z THU. PATTERN SUGGEST SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE OVER SERN NE AND SWRN IA WED...AND THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE. BEYOND WED...WILL GIVE THE 00Z ECMWF THE MOST WEIGHT FOR DETAILS OF THE FCST. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH BY LATE WED AFTN FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NW 1/2 OF NERN NE. SNOW CHANCES LOOK DECENT MOST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN. PCPN SHOULD LINGER THU MORNING BUT END BY AFTN BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING. NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. LIGHT NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
836 AM PDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...A FRONT IS MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. EXPECT RAIN OVER MOST THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH TODAY AROUND 7000 FEET LOWERING TO 5500 TO 6500 FT THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA, AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS, HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH TO INCLUDE EASTERN DOUGLAS, JACKSON, PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES AND FROM CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BASED ON WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TODAY ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. BEHIND THE FRONT, THIS EVENING EXPECT DECREASING SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 4-4500 FT WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 4500-5000 FT EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO COAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER. ADDITIONAL GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS ON MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 TO 5500 FEET MONDAY AND EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE HIGHER PASSES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VIS TO THE COAST THIS MORNING. INLAND, RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE IN TODAY, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOWERING CEILINGS TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THEN INLAND ON MONDAY MORNING. && .MARINE...UPDATED 315 AM PDT SUN 20 MAR 2016...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GALES AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY A WEST SWELL AND REACH A PEAK ON MONDAY NIGHT THEN REMAIN HIGH INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH MODERATE SEAS WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS BECOMING HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH SEAS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH INTO SATURDAY. -DW && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM PDT SUN MAR 20 2016/ DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST THIS MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY MID MORNING. MODELS INDICATE WINDS AT 925 MB TURNS SW INTO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP INCREASE COASTAL WINDS. AREAS NEAR CAPE BLANCO COULD SEE WIND GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE SHASTA VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE EAST SIDE WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS. HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT SUITE OF WIND ADVISORIES GOING. ASIDE FROM MT SHASTA AND SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY..PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 4-4500 FT WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 4500-5000 FT EAST. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. WE ARE CURRENT FORECASTING AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW AT CRATER LAKE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW ON MOUNT SHASTA ABOVE 6500 FEET. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FEET. ANOTHER 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031. CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. $$ CC/CC/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
815 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL PA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE ASSOC COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL EAST OF PA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...GIVING WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE E COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... RADAR WOULD IMPLY IT SHOULD BE SNOWING OVER A WIDE PORTION OF THE REGION. HOWEVER THE DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY IMPLIES FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER UP INTO SW PA THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEST LIFT IS OVER THIS BOUNDARY AND IN PA OVER SW PA WHERE THERE IS SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE HRRR AND SHORT TERM MODELS IMPLY BEST PLACE FOR SNOW IN IN SW PA AND ALONG MD BORDER. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE SHALLOW COLD AIR AND FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW IN PLACE AND A COLD MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY DAY OVER THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... UPDATE THE GRIDS...USING NEW GUIDANCE KEPT FORECAST SIMILAR WITH THEME OF THE WAVE AND FORCING FOR SNOW SLIDING MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. OUR SE COUNTIES WILL BE ON NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD. SO...KEPT SNOW OVERNIGHT IN S/SE AS SREF AND OTHER EFS DATA IMPLY A GOOD CHANCE FOR 0 TO A FEW INCHES BIASED TOWARD ZERO. THINGS IMPROVE MONDAY POPS GO BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE FAST EARLY MONDAY. PREVIOUS: UPPER LVL TROF AXIS WILL SWING THRU TONIGHT AS ASSOC COASTAL LOW MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO SE PA THIS EVENING. DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN PA WILL LIMIT THE CHC OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LOOK SITUATED TO PICK UP A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SNOW/SHSN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVS OF SOUTHEAST PA ARE UNLIKELY TO YIELD ANY ACCUMS DUE TO WARM GROUND/SFC TEMPS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY MONDAY AM IN WAKE OF TROF...CAUSING SKIES TO CLEAR. MONDAY LOOKS BLUSTERY AND CHILLY...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN MISS VALLEY HIGH AND COASTAL LOW E OF NEW ENG. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUSTS ARND 25KTS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTN. COLD TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CU BY AFTN...ESP OVR THE NW MTNS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARND -8C ARE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE M30S OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE M40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RISING HEIGHTS AND A SW TO WEST FLOW OF MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AFTER MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PLACEMENT OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF W ATLANTIC RIDGE. 00Z ECENS/NAEFS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF PA WED-THU WITH THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE N TIER COUNTIES. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS LIKELY TO COME FRIDAY...AS E COAST RIDGE WEAKENS AND SIG SHORTWAVE WORKS EAST THRU THE GRT LKS. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BLOSSOM OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...ALTHOUGH NO REFLECTION IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT MOIST EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN CLOUDS...BEING AIDED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER THE LAURELS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS BY 13Z IN KJST...AND LOWERED VSBYS IN SHSN BY 18Z. OTHER THAN KJST...HAVE NOW KEPT ALL TAFS VFR FOR THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF SOME LIGHT SNOW DOES WORK INTO KLNS AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. IF THIS DOES MATERIALIZE...WOULD LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS THERE AS WELL. WIND SHIFT TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z...PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL PA TAFS BETWEEN 01Z AND 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST. BY MONDAY MORNING COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS UP FOR TUESDAY. WHILE LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEM NOT SLATED UNTIL LATE WEEK. OUTLOOK... MON...SNOW SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST. VFR ELSEWHERE. TUE...VFR. WED-THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1138 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .DISCUSSION... THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER WEST TN AT THE MOMENT...WITH A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS CLEARING ACROSS THE PLATEAU THIS MORNING...IT WILL SERVE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND MIDLEVEL TEMPS COOL. THE HRRR AND RAP AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO. LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR 10 C/KM...WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE OF 100-200 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND SOME PEA-SIZED HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 12Z OHX SOUNDING IS AROUND 2000 FT. ELEVATIONS ABOVE THIS LEVEL MAY SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE LATEST NAM AMOUNTS OF 4-6 IN THE MOUNTAINS SEEMS OVERDONE...AT LEAST OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST PEAKS...BUT BASED ON THE SREF AND GFS...2-4 WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 2000 FT FROM 20Z-MIDNIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 34 56 35 / 50 30 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 31 50 34 / 70 50 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 49 32 52 34 / 70 40 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 48 29 48 31 / 30 20 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL- CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN- HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION- MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER- NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA- ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE. VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR LEE- SCOTT-WASHINGTON. && $$ DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
400 AM MDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... BREEZY EAST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD SLACKEN UP LATE THIS MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER. UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND MONDAY AS A NEW PACIFIC STORM ORGANIZES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A QUICK WARMUP WITH HIGHS MONDAY BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY...BRINGING STRONG AFTERNOON WINDS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH BLOWING DUST. THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPERATURES SOME ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG BUT BLOWING DUST MAY BE LESS OF AN IMPACT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO CHILL THURSDAY TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. && .DISCUSSION... MODERATE PRESSURE RISES OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAVE ALLOWED BREEZY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF TERRAIN. WEST EL PASO MESONET SHOWS SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30S MPH RANGE. HRRR WIND FIELD SHOWS THIS NICELY AND DROPS WINDS OFF AFTER 15Z. LOWER CLOUD FIELD EXPANDED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD DOWN TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SAC MOUNTAINS. LOOKS MORE LIKE SC THAN STRATUS AS OBS SHOWS BASES AROUND 8000-9000 FT MSL WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS SUGGESTING TOPS AROUND 14000 FT. STILL LOW ENOUGH TO HANG UP ON OUR FAR EAST TERRAIN. NAM12 INITIALIZES THIS VERY WELL AND DOES NOT MOVE CLOUDS ANY FURTHER WEST...AND DISSIPATING THEM BY 15-18Z. ALSO TO OUR WEST...CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MUCH OF THIS WILL DISSIPATE IN SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE RIDGE BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS TODAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY OR MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES EAST NEW MEXICO MONDAY AS PACIFIC STORM ORGANIZES OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL SWITCH SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN RAPID WARMUP. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW AND STORM SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN AND STRONG LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THESE TWO FACTS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW BOTH ADVISORY AND NEAR WARNING CRITERIA IN DIFFERENT SPOTS. SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST GOOD BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL CONSIDERING THE AREA HAS NOT RECEIVED ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SINCE LATE DECEMBER. SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE SOME AND BLOWING DUST TO SUBSIDE. KELP PROG GFS PROG SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT EAST SLOPE EVENT TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS 60-70 MPH. NEW SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHOULD HELP DIMINISH SURFACE GRADIENT A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY BUT MID LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE STRONG...SO ANOTHER WINDY DAY. WEST TRAJECTORIES ALONG WITH COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SUGGEST BLOWING DUST MAYBE LIMITED TO DEMING-LORDSBURG AREA. UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WILL DRAG SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z... VFR CONDS BETWEEN SKC TO FEW250 THRU PERIOD. STRONGER WINDS IN THE MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BECOMING LIGHTER BETWEEN 5- 10 AFTER 18Z. EAST WINDS UNTIL 18Z THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. PATCHES OF BKN080 TOPS 140 OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...SLOWLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THIS MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... AFTER YESTERDAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BEFORE GOING BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW MONDAY...AS A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS IN THE AREA. RH AND VENT RATES WILL BE LOW AND POOR TODAY. HOWEVER...VENT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOMORROW AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. ON TUESDAY CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. VERY STRONG WEST WINDS AND LOW RH`S BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL GENERATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ULTIMATELY LEADING TO A POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND AFTERWARDS WIND STRENGTH SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH TO AVOID CRITICAL CONDITIONS. ALSO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 66 44 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA 63 38 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 65 37 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 65 39 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 49 24 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 41 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 61 35 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 DEMING 68 37 78 42 / 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 70 37 78 40 / 0 0 0 0 WEST EL PASO METRO 67 43 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 DELL CITY 62 36 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 FORT HANCOCK 67 43 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 LOMA LINDA 62 40 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 FABENS 66 43 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA TERESA 66 40 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 WHITE SANDS HQ 66 42 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 JORNADA RANGE 67 30 77 36 / 0 0 0 0 HATCH 68 37 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 70 37 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 OROGRANDE 67 43 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 MAYHILL 55 31 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 MESCALERO 57 27 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 TIMBERON 55 30 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 WINSTON 63 27 72 31 / 0 0 0 0 HILLSBORO 67 36 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 SPACEPORT 66 31 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 LAKE ROBERTS 65 24 72 30 / 0 0 0 0 HURLEY 64 34 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 CLIFF 70 23 76 28 / 0 0 0 0 MULE CREEK 70 19 75 26 / 0 0 0 0 FAYWOOD 65 35 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 ANIMAS 71 38 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 HACHITA 70 36 80 41 / 0 0 0 0 ANTELOPE WELLS 70 39 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVERDALE 71 38 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ HEFNER/CRESPO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1043 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .UPDATE... PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY. I AM STILL EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING FROM MADISON AND WEST WHERE THERE IS A SUBTLE PUSH OF COLDER 925MB AIR. THESE SHOULD MIX OUT AND THIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTH WINDS ALONG THE SHORELINE WILL WEAKEN AND TURN NORTHEAST WITH A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS. THERE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS INLAND TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAX TEMPS IN MILWAUKEE... RACINE AND KENOSHA CITIES NEAR THE LAKESHORE. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... BKN 2500-3500 FT CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM MSN AND WEST PRIOR TO 18Z BUT THEN THIN OUT TO SCT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUD BASES RISE TO 4000 TO 5000 FT. THEN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FOR TNT. && .MARINE... NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE NEXT TIME PERIOD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS IS TUESDAY MORNING FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WHILE ONLY A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN OVER ROCK AND WALWORTH COUNTIES. THE UPPER LOW OVER MO AND ITS TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFT AND EVE. THUS EXPECT A CONTINUED DECREASE OF MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFT. 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 0C YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY WHICH AGREES WELL WITH MOS GUIDANCE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE SHOULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE AFT AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE LAKE. FOR TNT...STRONGER NWLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE MS RIVER BY 12Z MON. LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WESTERLY AS STRENGTHENING JET ENERGY ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC INTO THE GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM WAVE BREAKING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY WITH RIPPLES EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS US QUIET WEATHER LOCALLY ON MONDAY...BEFORE SLIDING TO OUR EAST BY EVENING. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET POINTS INTO THE AREA. FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS SUGGEST SOME DECENT LIFT TAKING PLACE...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WHICH MUST BE OVERCOME TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITION. FOR NOW KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE LIGHT LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD GIVEN THE ADVERTISED FORCING. BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR MILD TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTH WHERE HIGHS COULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT...WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT CHILLER FOR THE NORTHERN LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER WAVE PROGRESSES FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AS A DEEPENINIG SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND IS MAXIMIZED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER THE 20.00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND ONE INCH IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS QUITE GOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH JET-LEVEL DIVERGENCE...700-400 MB DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM THERMAL ADVECTION ALL PRESENT. QPF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY UNCERTANITY FOR US AT THIS JUNCTURE IS PRECIPITATION TYPE. ON THE STRONGER AND FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WE HAVE THE 20.00Z GFS...WHICH BRINGS A 991 MB SFC LOW THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN SERVICE AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE A WARMER SOLUTION WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTING MOSTLY RAIN IN OUR SOUTH WITH A MIXY SOLUTION TO THE NORTH. A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY SFC LOW TRACK IS PRESENTED VIA THE 20.00Z ECMWF WITH THE 995 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AT THIS SAME TIME. THIS WOULD BE A COLDER SOLUTION MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY TO SEVERAL INCHES. THE 20.00Z GGEM APPEARS IN SOME RESPECTS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN TRACK...BUT IS MUCH SLOWER. NEEDLESS TO SAY THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REGARING THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM SO WE/LL BE WATCHING THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST IS MEDIUM. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A DRY NLY FLOW. SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT EXPECTED FOR THE AFT. THEN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FOR TNT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MRC TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SPM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
555 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TO NEAR BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY REACHING EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD FASTER ESPECIALLY ACROSS DELAWARE AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY. WE ARE GETTING REPORTS OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN SOME SLEET EARLIER. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET ACROSS INTERIOR NEW JERSEY ESPECIALLY TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW TO START THEN MORE OF A MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN. THE RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR AWHILE LONGER BEFORE A TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING BETTER. A NEW SNOW MAP HAS ALSO BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB. TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS AND WINDS WERE ALSO TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THEN SOME BLENDING IN OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS DONE. THE HRRR RAMPS THINGS UP BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z AND 06Z WITH THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE BEST CHCS ARE THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE WEST, BUT IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THAT CUTOFF WILL BE. WE DO NOTE THAT THE DEW POINTS ARE MUCH MUCH LOWER ATTM THE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE GOES. AS AN EXAMPLE AT 21Z, THE DEW POINT AT MOUNT POCONO WAS 3F WHILE AT GEORGETOWN IT WAS 38F. WITH NATURAL DIURNAL COOLING, A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS CHANGE WILL BE ENHANCED WHERE PRECIP COMES DOWN HEAVIEST, WHICH HAS THE BEST CHC OF OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS IS, WITH THESE AREAS HAVING THE GREATEST CHC OF OBTAINING THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS. THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON NON-PAVED SURFACES, HOWEVER SOME BANDING LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES FOR A TIME AND THIS IS WHEN AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS CAN OCCUR. WE ARE ANTICIPATING SNOW AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THE PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING ERLY IN THE PD, BUT WILL END BY LATE MRNG WITH IMPROVING CONDS AND CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SUN BY AFTN. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY NW WIND, WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 MPH INLAND AND HIGHER CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH INCOMING RIDGING AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND IN THE MID LEVELS. THE HIGHER PRESSURE IS TRANSIENT AND WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MODELS VARY, BUT A FEW SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT DOWN AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN PA AND NJ. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTHWARD, PUTTING US IN THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO A COLD FROPA. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS UNCERTAIN. THE WINDOW IS BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER OF THE WEEKEND DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES...CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY. AVERAGES SHOULD WARM TO ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR FRIDAY BECAUSE THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT IS IN QUESTION. IF IT`S FASTER, TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME CLIMBING ONCE AGAIN TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION...THE REGION WILL BE PRECIP FREE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WHAT TIME OF DAY THE FRONT PASSES WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, AT TIMES, TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COULD RAMP UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY IF THE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH WORKS INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC. IMPACTS...NO WIDESPREAD IMPACTS THIS COMING WEEK ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT POTENTIALLY DIPPING INTO THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK, WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE POOL AT THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT. THIS SITUATION MIGHT YIELD SOME MORNING SPRING FOG THAT COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES DURING THE A.M. RUSH. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY ATTM, WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. FOR KRDG AND KABE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE IN FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT. IF THAT OCCURS, BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. NE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN WILL BECOME NW ON MON AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT. FOR KTTN, KPNE, KPHL AND KILG...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TO IFR AS PRECIP, NOW MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX CHANGES OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW. EXPECT THE CHANGE OVER TO OCCUR BEFORE 06Z. WIND WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE ON MON GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 KT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE 18Z. VFR WILL THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KMIV AND KACY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z BEFORE SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION NOW IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX NOW WILL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SNOW NEAR 06Z. WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY 12Z AND COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25KT. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND MONDAY NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON ON BOTH DAYS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER. COULD ALSO SEE SOME EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS LOW ATTM. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED. WINDS EXPECTED TO GO NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT. SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. && .MARINE... 530 PM UPDATE...SEAS WERE INCREASED BY ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE GLW FOR THE SRN WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE SCA FOR THE NRN WATERS AND LWR DEL BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU MON. ADDITIONALLY UPR DEL BAY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SCA AS CONDS HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO SCA AT BRANDYWINE AND WITH NWLY FLOW EXPECTED ON MON, WIND COULD BECOME EVEN HIGHER ON THE NRN PORTION OF THE DEL BAY. OUTLOOK... CONTINUING TO LOOK LIKE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD... MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SCA VERY LIKELY. GALES A POSSIBILITY. GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH AND BACKING TO SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW. POSSIBLE SCA THOUGH THE 25 KT GUSTS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE VERY NEARSHORE WATERS SINCE IT WILL BE MILD AIR OVERRIDING COOLER MID-UPPER 40S SSTS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO OUR WATERS NOR THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF THE BACK DOOR DROPS INTO THE REGION THE WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY. REGARDLESS OF TIMING, IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BREEZY WITH 2 SEPARATE FRONTS IN THE VICINITY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING AND THE HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE TREND OF A SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW, BOTH GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS BY A HALF A FOOT OR MORE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE FURTHER WEST TRACK, IS THAT WATER LEVELS WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE WATER LEVELS OF THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE (PREVIOUSLY THE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING WAS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY WITH THE ANOMALIES FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE, BUT STILL THINK THE THREAT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO. && .CLIMATE... SNOWFALL DAILY RECORDS MAR 20 ACY 5.0 1914 THE FOLLOWING WAS GENERATED BY SARAH JOHNSON ET AL, ALL BELOW PREDICATED ON OFFICIAL MEASURABLE SNOW. IF PHILADELPHIA MEASURES TONIGHT IT WILL BE THE 7TH TIME SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THAT THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW HAS OCCURRED AFTER THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR. THE OTHER YEARS WERE 1892, 1921, 1928, 1967 1990 AND 2000. ALL OF THESE YEARS HAD THEIR EARLIER THAN NORMAL FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY. ABE: 6 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1963, 1967, 1978, 1986, 1990, 2014) ACY: 2 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1990) ILG: 4 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1985, 1990, 2000) MARCH THROUGH 19 DAYS IS AVERAGING ABOUT 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL... WARMEST NORTH. AS OF NOW WE ARE TRACKING 4TH WARMEST MARCH IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE FOR PHILADELPHIA DATING BACK TO 1874. WE`VE RUN CALCULATIONS BASED ON TODAY 330 AM FORECAST THROUGH THE 26TH, THE FTPRHA GFS 2M MAX/MIN FROM D8-11 AND THEN NORMAL LOW HI FOR THE 31ST AND PROJECTING PHILADELPHIA EASILY A PROBABLE TOP 10 WARMEST. THE AVG MAY SLIP A BIT FROM THE CURRENT 50.1 DEGREES (PLUS 8.9 DEGREES SO FAR) BUT WE ARE PROJECTING TO BE ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN OF 43.5. IF ITS 50 DEGREES... THIS WOULD BE THE 4TH WARMEST MARCH BEHIND 52.5 1921 52.2 2012 51.2 1945 AND JUST AHEAD OF 49.8 IN 1946. ABE THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED #4 WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1922 ACY THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 6TH WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1874 ILG THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 10TH, RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1895. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ013-014- 020-022-026-027. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ450>455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450-451. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO NEAR TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...KRUZDLO AVIATION...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE, OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES, WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY ON MONDAY. A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TO NEAR BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. IT MAY TRACK AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE, TRACKING UP FROM THE SOUTH, MAY AFFECT THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... PRECIP ASSOCD WITH THE CSTL LOW HAS MOVED INTO DE AND EXTREME SRN NJ ATTM. IT IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN, DUE TO TEMPS IN THE 40S. DEWPTS ARE GRADUALLY COMING UP AS WELL. SOME SLEET MIXED IN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE, MAINLY IN SRN AND ERN AREAS. ONCE AGAIN, THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS AND IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BIGGEST RAMP UP WILL BE BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z WITH GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE THRU ABOUT 06Z. GUID STILL SUGGEST THE BEST CHCS ARE THE FURTHER S AND E YOU GO. THE 12Z GUID MADE A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT AND THERE LOOKS TO BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NW, BUT IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THAT CUTOFF WILL BE. THE NEXT BIG QUESTION, AND THE MOST IMPORTANT ONE, IS WHAT FORM THE PRECIP WILL TAKE. RIGHT NOW ITS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FCST. HOWEVER, DEW PTS ARE QUITE LOW, IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MANY AREAS, SO THERE IS DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND WITH COOLING OF THE COLUMN, TEMPS WILL SETTLE IN THE 30S. WITH NATURAL DIURNAL COOLING, A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOULD OCCUR DURG THE EVE HOURS,. THIS CHANGE WILL BE ENHANCED WHERE PRECIP COMES DOWN HEAVIEST, WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRING ALG THE CST. QPF AMTS ARE ALSO A BIT IN QUESTION, WITH THE NAM AND GFS HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF, BUT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS LOWER THAN THEIR OVERNIGHT RUNS. FOR NOW, WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN AND KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVY. IT MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIP CHANGES OVER AND HOW HEAVY IT MAY FALL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THE PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING ERLY IN THE PD, BUT WILL END BY LATE MRNG WITH IMPROVING CONDS AND CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SUN BY AFTN. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY NW WIND, WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 MPH INLAND AND HIGHER CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH INCOMING RIDGING AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND IN THE MID LEVELS. THE HIGHER PRESSURE IS TRANSIENT AND WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MODELS VARY, BUT A FEW SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT DOWN AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN PA AND NJ. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTHWARD, PUTTING US IN THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO A COLD FROPA. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS UNCERTAIN. THE WINDOW IS BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER OF THE WEEKEND DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES...CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY. AVERAGES SHOULD WARM TO ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR FRIDAY BECAUSE THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT IS IN QUESTION. IF IT`S FASTER, TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME CLIMBING ONCE AGAIN TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION...THE REGION WILL BE PRECIP FREE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WHAT TIME OF DAY THE FRONT PASSES WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, AT TIMES, TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COULD RAMP UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY IF THE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH WORKS INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC. IMPACTS...NO WIDESPREAD IMPACTS THIS COMING WEEK ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT POTENTIALLY DIPPING INTO THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK, WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE POOL AT THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT. THIS SITUATION MIGHT YIELD SOME MORNING SPRING FOG THAT COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES DURING THE A.M. RUSH. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY ATTM, WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. FOR KRDG AND KABE...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD. NE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN WILL BECOME NW ON MON AND INCREASE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. FOR KTTN, KPNE, KPHL AND KILG...VFR CONDS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR AS PRECIP MOVES IN. PRECIP SHUD START AS -RA LATER THIS AFTN BUT SHUD MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO -SN DURG THE EVE. WIND WILL BECOME NWLY AND INCREASE ON MON GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 KT. DURG THE LATE MRNG, CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR WILL THEN BE EXPECTED FRO THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD. FOR KMIV AND KACY. MVFR CONDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING WITH -RA OCCURRING. -RA SHUD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO -SN DURG THE EVE. ITS PSBL THERE CUD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIP. CONDS WILL DROP TO IFR. WIND WILL BECOME NWLY BY MRNG AND CUD GUST AS HIGH AS 25 KT. DURG THE LATE MRNG, CONDS WILL BECOME VFR, AND REMAIN VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND MONDAY NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON ON BOTH DAYS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER. COULD ALSO SEE SOME EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS LOW ATTM. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED. WINDS EXPECTED TO GO NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT. SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. && .MARINE... THE GLW FOR THE SRN WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE SCA FOR THE NRN WATERS AND LWR DEL BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU MON. ADDITIONALLY UPR DEL BAY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SCA AS CONDS HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO SCA AT BRANDYWINE AND WITH NWLY FLOW EXPECTED ON MON, WIND COULD BECOME EVEN HIGHER ON THE NRN PORTION OF THE DEL BAY. OUTLOOK... CONTINUING TO LOOK LIKE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD... MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SCA VERY LIKELY. GALES A POSSIBILITY. GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH AND BACKING TO SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW. POSSIBLE SCA THOUGH THE 25 KT GUSTS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE VERY NEARSHORE WATERS SINCE IT WILL BE MILD AIR OVERRIDING COOLER MID-UPPER 40S SSTS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO OUR WATERS NOR THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF THE BACK DOOR DROPS INTO THE REGION THE WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY. REGARDLESS OF TIMING, IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BREEZY WITH 2 SEPARATE FRONTS IN THE VICINITY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING AND THE HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE TREND OF A SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW, BOTH GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS BY A HALF A FOOT OR MORE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE FURTHER WEST TRACK, IS THAT WATER LEVELS WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE WATER LEVELS OF THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE (PREVIOUSLY THE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING WAS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY WITH THE ANOMALIES FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE, BUT STILL THINK THE THREAT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO. && .CLIMATE... SNOWFALL DAILY RECORDS MAR 20 ACY 5.0 1914 THE FOLLOWING WAS GENERATED BY SARAH JOHNSON ET AL, ALL BELOW PREDICATED ON OFFICIAL MEASURABLE SNOW IF PHILADELPHIA MEASURES TONIGHT IT WILL BE THE 7TH TIME SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THAT THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW HAS OCCURRED AFTER THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR. THE OTHER YEARS WERE 1892, 1921, 1928, 1967 1990 AND 2000. ALL OF THESE YEARS HAD THEIR EARLIER THAN NORMAL FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY. ABE: 6 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1963, 1967, 1978, 1986, 1990, 2014) ACY: 2 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1990) ILG: 4 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1985, 1990, 2000) MARCH THROUGH 19 DAYS IS AVERAGING ABOUT 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL... WARMEST NORTH. AS OF NOW WE ARE TRACKING 4TH WARMEST MARCH IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE FOR PHILADELPHIA DATING BACK TO 1874. WE`VE RUN CALCULATIONS BASED ON TODAY 330 AM FORECAST THROUGH THE 26TH, THE FTPRHA GFS 2M MAX/MIN FROM D8-11 AND THEN NORMAL LOW HI FOR THE 31ST AND PROJECTING PHILADELPHIA EASILY A PROBABLE TOP 10 WARMEST. THE AVG MAY SLIP A BIT FROM THE CURRENT 50.1 DEGREES (PLUS 8.9 DEGREES SO FAR) BUT WE ARE PROJECTING TO BE ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN OF 43.5. IF ITS 50 DEGREES... THIS WOULD BE THE 4TH WARMEST MARCH BEHIND 52.5 1921 52.2 2012 51.2 1945 AND JUST AHEAD OF 49.8 IN 1946. ABE THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED #4 WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1922 ACY THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 6TH WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1874 ILG THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 10TH, RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1895. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ013-014-020-022-026-027. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ450>455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450-451. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...KRUZDLO AVIATION...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1226 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY MONDAY. A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW MONDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERN STATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TO NEAR BERMUDA WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY SAG SOUTH INTO NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF MAINE FRIDAY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HAPPY FIRST DAY OF SPRING! TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE AND LOCATIONS S AND E ARE NOW INTO THE 40S, WITH MOST IN THE N AND W IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THESE TEMPS ARE ON AVG 2 TO 3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN FCST. AGAIN, THANKS TO THE LATE MARCH SUN! SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY HIT OR EXCEEDED THEIR FCST HIGH FOR THE DAY SO MADE SO ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS. DON`T THINK TEMPS WILL RISE THAT MUCH MORE BUT ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES IS PSBL. OVERALL HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING SITUATION WELL AGAIN, THO IT DOESN`T HAVE THE PRECIP CURRENTLY ON RADAR OFF THE SRN NJ/DE CST. IT CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THRU LATE AFTN. THEN IT RAMPS THINGS UP S AND E AND REALLY GETS THINGS GOING DURG THE ERLY EVE. THE 12Z NAM (THE ONLY 12Z GUID AVAILABLE FOR THIS UPDATE) HAS SSHOWN A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT WITH ITS QPF FIELD. WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW, THE WARMER TEMPS NECESSITATE MORE OF A MENTION OF RAIN THRU THE AFTN OR AT LEAST RAIN AND SNOW. WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND THAT WILL BE DETERMINED WHEN ADDITIONAL GUID ARRIVES. LTST RADAR SHOWS PRECIP OVER THE DELMARVA HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND NO PRECIP ACRS THE REGION ATTM. GUID INDICATES THAT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SRN AREAS, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY BEFORE PRECIP POTENTIAL RAMPS UP DURG THE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE MRNG MDL GUID COMES IN BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FCST, SHUD THEY BE NEEDED. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS DUE TO THE WARMER SURFACES AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE MID-MARCH HAS TO OFFER. AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING, THE INTENSITY MAY START TO PICK UP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS, PRECIPITATING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN OVER TO ALL SNOW. AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY SNOW THAT FALLS TO INITIALLY ONLY STICK TO THE NON-PAVED SURFACES WITH THE ROADS BECOMING SLUSHY. FURTHER INLAND, THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR WILL PREVENT PRECIPITATION TO INITIALLY MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IT MIGHT TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR THE DRY AIR TO ERODE BUT EVENTUALLY, THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION, IT WILL BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A BIT EVEN WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... WITH THE GUIDANCE HOLDING ITS COURSE THIS MORNING, AND EVEN PUSHING SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. WITH THE HI-RES MODELS SHOWING BANDING OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND GOOD LIFT AND SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TONIGHT, WE HAVE UPPED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY BUT ARE STILL LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 INCHES FALLING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE MORE WINTRY THAN SPRING-LIKE. PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY AS SNOW, PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST AREAS, THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVIEST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD TO THE NORTH AND WEST. AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS, THE COLUMN WILL COOL AND WITH THE SUN NO LONGER AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT, WE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW TAKE PLACE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, WE MAY HAVE UP TO 4 INCHES ON THE GROUND, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 MPH BY LATE TONIGHT, REMAINING WINDIER ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 500 MB: THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY WITH ITS AMPLIFYING 140M 12HR HFC SCOOTING NEWD FROM THE DELMARVA. NW FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE LONG WAVE TOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FLATTENING TO WESTERLY FLOW DURING MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS WARM. A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES (REFLECTING POTENTIAL ENERGY USE): CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WARMING TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY, THEN ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COOLING SATURDAY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FOR REFERENCE, THE NORMALS FOR PHILLY DURING THE PERIOD ARE LOW TO MID 50S AND MID 30S. FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/20 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, THEREAFTER THE 00Z/20 GFS MEX MOS- 05Z/20 WPC GUIDANCE. THIS FCST WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 00Z/20 ECMWF OPERATIONAL CYCLE. THE DAILIES... MONDAY...A BLUSTERY CHILLY NW FLOW WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN NJ AND NE PA ENDING EARLY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. NW WIND GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE WILL HAVE TO CHECK WITH OUR PARTNERS HOW TO HANDLE, AFTER TONIGHTS SNOW. IF SNOW DOESNT ACCUMULATE OR SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN FORECAST, THEN WE WOULD BE QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE DANGER. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE N PTN LATE IN ADVANCE OF A SEWD SAGGING COLD FRONT. WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTY 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE N PTN IN ADVANCE OF A SEWD SAGGING COLD FRONT. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. THURSDAY...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY HAVE SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE DELMARVA. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS WITH A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/20 ECMWF AND WPC. WINDS PROBABLY TURNING SOUTHEAST TO EAST. BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME IN THIS PERIOD. EVENTUALLY TURNING A BIT COOLER. BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY...FOR NOW IT LOOKS NICE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDS SHUD REMAIN TO THE N AND W THRU THE TAF PD. ALG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, TEMPS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FCST THIS AFTN, SO ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS LATER MAY ENDO UP BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR MORE RAIN THAN SNOW AT THE ONSET. THIS CUD, IN TURN KEEP VSBYS VFR LONGER. BY LATER THIS EVE, AS TEMPS COOL AND PRECIP CUD GET HEAVIER MORE SNOW WILL MIX IN AND AN EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL BRING CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR AND PSBLY IFR. FOR THE SERN ARPTS. MVFR IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTN WITH IFR TO FOLLOW. AGAIN, RAIN IS ANTICIPATED, BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO BACK TO THE NORTH. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE PSBL ESPECIALLY FROM PHL S AND E. OUTLOOK... MONDAY...ANY LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS IN EARLY SNOW SHOWERS ENDS BY 15Z. BECOMING VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BY 18Z/21. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. PATCHES OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000FT. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND MONDAY NIGHT BECOMING SW TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEDNESDAY...VFR PATCHES OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THURSDAY...PROBABLY VFR. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY COMPLICATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH EASTERLY WINDS. BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. && .MARINE... WE HAVE UPGRADED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG HARBOR SOUTH TO FENWICK ISLAND. THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE CAROLINAS, REMAINING TO THE EAST OF OUR WATERS. SEAS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO BUILD IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AND WE ARE SEEING SEAS EXCEEDING 5 FEET AT BUOY 44009 ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN UP AS THE LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED WINDS, WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OCCURRING THIS EVENING. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SCA PROBABLE. MAYBE A PERIOD OF NW GALES MONDAY EVENING? FOR NOW... LESS THAN 6 HOURS OF GALE GUSTS BUT WILL NEED RECONSIDERATION FOR THE WATCH WARNING PROCESS IN UPCOMING FORECASTS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE. TUESDAY...W-NW WINDS DIMINISH AND BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. HEADLINES NOT LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SCA THOUGH THE 25 KT GUSTS WOULD BE CONFINED TO NEARSHORE WATERS SINCE IT WILL BE MILD AIR OVERRIDING COOLER MID-UPPER 40S SSTS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THURSDAY...THE WIND MAY TURN EASTERLY BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, EXPECT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY FAVORABLE, AND WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL OFF SHORE. BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS OUR LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING SHY OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR BOTH THIS EVENINGS AND THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER AS A SLIGHT SHIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD INCREASE THE THREAT. && .CLIMATE... SNOWFALL DAILY RECORDS MAR 20 ACY 5.0 1914 THE FOLLOWING WAS GENERATED BY SARAH JOHNSON ET AL, ALL BELOW PREDICATED ON OFFICIAL MEASURABLE SNOW IF PHILADELPHIA MEASURES TONIGHT IT WILL BE THE 7TH TIME SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THAT THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW HAS OCCURRED AFTER THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR. THE OTHER YEARS WERE 1892, 1921, 1928, 1967 1990 AND 2000. ALL OF THESE YEARS HAD THEIR EARLIER THAN NORMAL FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY. ABE: 6 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1963, 1967, 1978, 1986, 1990, 2014) ACY: 2 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1990) ILG: 4 TIMES PREVIOUSLY (1959, 1985, 1990, 2000) MARCH THROUGH 19 DAYS IS AVERAGING ABOUT 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL... WARMEST NORTH. AS OF NOW WE ARE TRACKING 4TH WARMEST MARCH IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE FOR PHILADELPHIA DATING BACK TO 1874. WE`VE RUN CALCULATIONS BASED ON TODAY 330 AM FORECAST THROUGH THE 26TH, THE FTPRHA GFS 2M MAX/MIN FROM D8-11 AND THEN NORMAL LOW HI FOR THE 31ST AND PROJECTING PHILADELPHIA EASILY A PROBABLE TOP 10 WARMEST. THE AVG MAY SLIP A BIT FROM THE CURRENT 50.1 DEGREES (PLUS 8.9 DEGREES SO FAR) BUT WE ARE PROJECTING TO BE ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN OF 43.5. IF ITS 50 DEGREES... THIS WOULD BE THE 4TH WARMEST MARCH BEHIND 52.5 1921 52.2 2012 51.2 1945 AND JUST AHEAD OF 49.8 IN 1946. ABE THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED #4 WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1922 ACY THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 6TH WARMEST, RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1874 ILG THROUGH THE 19TH RANKED 10TH, RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1895. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ013-014-020-022-026-027. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/MEOLA SHORT TERM...MEOLA LONG TERM...DRAG AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1257 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 Upper level low and associated showers pulling off to the south this morning. Some clearing behind the showers off to the north, but expect will fill in with cu this afternoon. The first day of spring is a little cooler than the past week...and a couple of degrees below normal. Large changes in the forecast are not expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 07z/2am surface analysis shows trough axis bisecting the KILX CWA from near Galesburg to just south of Paris. Scattered light rain showers are occurring in the vicinity of this feature, with a few obs occasionally reporting light snow. With upper levels continuing to cool as closed 500mb low tracks southeastward along the Mississippi River, think a light rain/snow mix will continue through the early morning. Due to surface temps above freezing and relatively warm soil conditions, no accumulation is expected. The trough will gradually settle southward today, pushing any lingering light precip south of the CWA by midday. Based on current radar loops and latest HRRR forecast, have carried low chance PoPs along/south of a Jacksonville to Mattoon line this morning, then have gone dry everywhere for the afternoon. Skies are currently cloudy: however, a dry low-level airmass to the northeast has helped skies clear over Michigan and northern Indiana. As the trough axis sinks southward and winds become northeasterly, this drier air will try to work its way into central Illinois. Think portions of the NE CWA may partially clear for a time this morning, before diurnal CU redevelops, leading to a partly to mostly cloudy day. High temperatures will again be below normal for this time of year in the middle 40s. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 High pressure will build into the region tonight, resulting in clearing skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s. The cool/dry weather will continue into Monday before the high shifts to the east and a strong southerly return flow develops Monday night into Tuesday. Pressure gradient between departing high and developing low over the Plains will result in sustained southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph on Tuesday, with gusts reaching 30 mph at times. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and a good deal of sunshine, high temperatures will soar into the 60s. A frontal boundary will sag southward into north-central Illinois Tuesday night. As increasing moisture flows northward and interacts with the front, a few showers will be possible along/north of a Peoria to Bloomington line. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the entire CWA on Wednesday as the airmass becomes more unstable and low pressure slowly approaches from the west. With strongest forcing remaining further north and west, have only carried slight chance PoPs across most of the area, with higher PoPs confined to the far north in closer conjunction to the baroclinic zone. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for the end of the week, particularly concerning the speed of an approaching short-wave trough and how fast it will push a frontal boundary through central Illinois. All models have sped up this process from previous runs, with the 00z Mar 20 GFS now becoming the fastest. The GFS shows a 991mb over Lake Michigan, with the trailing cold front along the Illinois/Indiana border by 12z Thu. Meanwhile, both the GEM and ECMWF have quickened from their prior runs, but are about 12 hours slower than the GFS. The ECMWF has the low over central Illinois and the GEM places it over northern Missouri 12z Thu. Given that the GFS has made such an abrupt change from its solution just 24 hours ago, prefer to side with the slower GEM/ECMWF. As a result, am focusing the greatest rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday when likely PoPs for showers/thunder are warranted. Will linger lower rain chances into Thursday night as the system departs, followed by a return to dry weather for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 Upper level low rotating around the broader trof as high pressure at the surface continues to build into the region. Majority of the clouds expected to break up after sunset for ILX terminals. Bigger issue will be the potential for fog over DEC after some snow has boosted llvl moisture. Have started a trend, but BUFKit soundings with an adjusted xover temp are not that obvious with the fog development. Starting the trend at low end MVFR, but will have to keep an eye on the dry air working into the region. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HJS SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SHORT TERM... 306 AM CDT THROUGH MONDAY... FAIRLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WHILE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES BEGIN TUESDAY WITH A BIG WARMUP ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN RACE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH IS NOTED STRETCHING FROM NEAR CMI NORTHWEST TO PIA THEN MLI. A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA HOWEVER THOSE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BUILDING OVERHEAD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE TODAY...AND DEEP MIXING CAPPED BY A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM OCCURRING TODAY DESPITE SOME MODELS LIKE THE HRRR TRYING TO BREAK OUT MODEST POPCORN CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S TODAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE FRONT BUT IF ANYTHING THERE SEEMS POTENTIAL TO GO WARMER IF WE SEE MORE SUNSHINE. KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO RIGHT AROUND 40 AGAIN IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT PROVIDING CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. ON MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE THE GRADIENT TO REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...BUT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY SHUNT ITS INLAND PROGRESS. THIS MAKES TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY FOR THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE LAKE AS ITS UNSURE HOW MUCH PROGRESS THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE. AREAS UNAFFECTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE...BUT NEAR THE LAKE WILL ONLY CALL FOR MID 40S. DEUBELBEISS && .LONG TERM... 306 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING AT LEAST A DAY OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS A STABLE WAVE TRANSLATES EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SERVE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO CAUSING A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA OR VERY NEARBY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS IT DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS DISTANCE...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODELS. GFS TRACKS THE LOW RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAS DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK WHICH TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN THURSDAY. A LOT WILL HINGE ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER VS MIXED PRECIP/SNOW...60S VS 30S FOR TEMPS. AT THIS DISTANCE...MAINTAINED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AND WILL HAVE TO HONE IN FURTHER ON THE DETAILS AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. DEUBELBEISS && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS DETAILS OF WIND DIRECTION FOR ORD/MDW TODAY. AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN RESPONSE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED TO NORTHERLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP...A LAKE BREEZE AND ONSHORE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AS TEMPERATURES INLAND RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S UNDER COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NELY WINDS HAVE SET UP AT ORD/MDW...WHILE WINDS REMAIN PREVAILING NLY AT RFD/DPA/GYY. WITH DEEP MIXING...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 12-14KT RANGE WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS TO 18-20KT UNTIL ARND SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT AND PUSHES TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE TERMINALS...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH WINDS BACKING TO SWLY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. OTRW...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. KREIN && .MARINE... 200 AM CDT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY...THEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY GALES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING SOUTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...ALLOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. WEATHER FOR THE WESTERN LAKES WILL THEN TURN MORE ACTIVE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...WITH A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST AND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL DEEPEN AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 25-30 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PASSES. AS THE STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON MOST OF THE LAKE...AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE 30 KT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WINDS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER...IN THE REGION OF WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW...THOUGH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES DO APPEAR LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW SCOOTS BY TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
317 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 UPDATE THE FORECAST PRIMARILY FOR SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY WITH WEAKNESS RUNNING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. ALONG THIS...NORTHWEST AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THIS WAY. CLOSER TO HOME...A FEW SPRINKLES OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER CLOUDS EAST OF JKL. ELSEWHERE... THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP AND RETREATING EAST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOUND TO THE WEST. THE CLEARING IS HELPING TO DROP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF EXTRA DEGREES WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE NORTHWEST OF JACKSON WHILE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE NOTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ALSO VARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTH AND FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH. THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WITH A SLEW OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY WILL BRUSH THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS WILL THEN REBOUND INTO MONDAY...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS SOME OF THE MORE RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TO FOLLOW. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COOL END TO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE WORST OF THE CHILL. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL SLIP JUST EAST OF SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND LIKELY BRUSH THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. FOR THIS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...BUT...DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW/TROUGH PASSING BY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY HAVE ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THIS. THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT BY EVENING AND SETS THE STAGE FOR A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES A GOOD BET ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE WX GRIDS AND WILL MENTION IT IN THE HWO AS OUR FROST FREEZE HEADLINE PROGRAM WILL NOT START FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT SET UP AS THE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY... DESPITE THE CHILLY START. AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER. HAVE ADJUSTED THESE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE SLIGHT TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE FOR TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...POPS WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST BY TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND A DEVELOP LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WINDS AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS AS HIGHS SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR 70 BY WEDNESDAY. THE WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN US AND PUSH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM...SO RAIN CHANCES HAVE CONTINUED TO GO UP WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND WE SHOULD DRY OUT AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY OVER EASTER WEEKEND...SETTING UP A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON THIS IDEA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT WILL PUSH EAST FOLLOWING SUNRISE. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO THREATEN THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT SME...FOR THIS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 ...HIGH FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW AFTERNOON/EVENING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON TUESDAY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND HIGH WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY AND VERY CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH RIGHT NOW...BUT WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THESE CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO COME ON TUESDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING SOME FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW RH WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF FIRE WEATHER...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
204 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK RDG AXIS OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN GENERAL TROFFING IN ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW OVER THE E HALF OF CANADA AND CLOSED LO OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN POLAR BRANCH FLOW DOMINATING THE CONUS...ALL DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPR RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. THERE IS A SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING ACRS THE UPR LKS. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON LOCAL 00Z RAOBS... PWAT AS LO AS 0.11 INCH AT APX /ABOUT 40 PCT OF NORMAL/...SKIES ARE MOCLR. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BLO NORMAL AND INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AT THE COLDER INTERIOR SPOTS WITH LGT WINDS. A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IN CANADA IS DIGGING THRU NW ONTARIO...BUT THE SHARPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS ON TRACK TO STAY N OF UPR MI. THE WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP...BUT UPSTREAM OBS SHOW LTL IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER. THERE ARE MORE CLDS AND SOME SCT SN SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NW IN ONTARIO/MANITOBA AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO THAT AREA. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON PCPN/LES CHCS TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND COLD FNT NOW DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA/ NW ONTARIO. TODAY...SHRTWV IN NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO THE SE...WITH FIRST COLD FNT CROSSING THE CWA THIS MRNG. SINCE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE N OF UPR MI...THERE WL NO MSTR INFLOW TO MOISTEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...AND THERE WL BE LTL IF ANY LLVL CNVGC ALONG THE FIRST COLD FROPA...SUSPECT THE BULK OF THE MODELS SHOWING A DRY DAY ARE ON TRACK. WL RETAIN SOME SCHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NE HALF OF THE LAND CWA THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF SOME DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -11C BY 00Z SUN DESPITE FCST ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 NW FLOW. TNGT...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SECOND COLD FNT REACHING THE NRN CWA ARND 06Z...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ARND -14C BY 12Z MON OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. BUT SINCE LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC WL DOMINATE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV...FCST H85 TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR LES AND THE TRAILING AIRMASS WL BE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH MARGINAL LLVL CNVGC FCST...EXPECT NO MORE THAN CHC POPS FOR THE FROPA AND LES IN ITS WAKE. SINCE THE BULK OF THE COOLING WL IMPACT AREAS E OF MQT...WL CARRY THE HIER CHC POPS IN THAT AREA. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SN EVEN IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MQT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MONDAY...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CROSSING THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL USHER IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MAINLY THE NNW TO WNW WIND SNOW BELTS IN THE MORNING. WAA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BACKING WINDS WILL WILL QUICKLY END THE LES BY LATE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DUSTING ALONG MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SLOPING LAYER OF FGEN BELOW 600 HPA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED OVER A 4 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A VERY WET SNOWFALL THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL...WET BULB TEMPS CREEP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ON TUESDAY...SO A MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY A SWITCH OVER TO RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...CHIEFLY DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE INITIAL SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM PRODUCE A WEAKER SOLUTION AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOWS SIGNS OF TRYING TO CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW. GIVEN DRY EASTERLY FLOW FROM ONTARIO...PRECIP MAY FAIL TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE CWA IF THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...PLACING UPPER MI ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND IN A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN WITH A BOUT OF MIXED PRECIP FOR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH N-NW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND IT. DRY AIR AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL ONLY BRING SITES TO BORDERLINE MVFR TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS...SO LEFT PRECIP AS VCSH. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS TO VEER TO THE N TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PAIR OF LO PRES TROUGHS. AS A HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON MON...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. AS A WAVE OF LO PRES RIDES ALONG A FRONT TO THE S OF UPPER MI ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHILE HI PRES BUILDS INTO NW ONTARIO... WINDS OVER LAKE SUP WILL BECOME ENE UP TO 25 KTS. NE WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WILL THEN BE THE RULE FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU UNDER A RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN PERSISTENT HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND A LO PRES MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KLUBER AVIATION...TITUS MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
107 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 PCPN CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO MENTION DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TEMPS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW THAT DROPPED SEWD ACROSS IOWA SATURDAY WAS OVER NERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SNOW HAD GENERALLY ENDED IN OUR AREA. WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ISOLD FLURRIES THIS MORNING OR AN ISOLD SNOW SHOWER IN SWRN IA THIS AFTN...BUT GENERALLY MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES TODAY SEEM MINIMAL. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EWD TODAY. NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH. THAT RIDGE WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EAST OR NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND MIXING SHOULD NOT BE AS DEEP THERE. FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE SD BORDER AND UPPER 70S AT THE KS BORDER. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THIS PERIOD IS MORE ACTIVE...WITH SEVERAL PCPN CHANCES. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM WED INTO THU MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NIGHT NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE PROFILE INCREASE. 500 MB FLOW WILL BE DIFLUENT OVER OUR AREA TUE NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO CO. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO INCREASE BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS POINT TUE NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT FCST SOUNDINGS. IN GENERAL... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR WED. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE 500 MB LOW AND HAS THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER EAST BY 00Z THU. PATTERN SUGGEST SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE OVER SERN NE AND SWRN IA WED...AND THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE. BEYOND WED...WILL GIVE THE 00Z ECMWF THE MOST WEIGHT FOR DETAILS OF THE FCST. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH BY LATE WED AFTN FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NW 1/2 OF NERN NE. SNOW CHANCES LOOK DECENT MOST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN. PCPN SHOULD LINGER THU MORNING BUT END BY AFTN BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING. NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 21/18Z AT KOFK..KLNK...AND KOMA. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR RETURN OF SOUTH SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WINO SHEAR IS FORECAST BETWEEN 11Z-17Z ACROSS KOFK...KLNK...AND KOMA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
429 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WHILE DOMINATING THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...LOW PRES EAST OF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO NW. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... AS OF 4 PM SUN...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN OBX EARLY. THE LOW STRATUS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG CAA WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH INLAND AND UP TO 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PATCHY FROST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SW...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGH THU. MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AREAS OF PATCHY FROST WILL BE LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...SW FLOW...AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WED...AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR THU. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WED MORNING WARMING INTO THE 50S/LOW 60S. BREEZY S/SW WINDS DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK. MODELS DIFFERENCES CONTINUE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THEN POSSIBLE AREAS OF PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SE COAST...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW EVEN SLOWER NOT MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS WPC AND ECMWF...DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI/FRI EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FRI AND FRI NIGHT...CAPPING AT 40 PERCENT RIGHT NOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE SC THUNDER MENTION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR POSSIBLE IF SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE VERIFIES. ECMWF KEEPS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO THE NORTH LATE SAT AND SUN...WHILE THE GFS IS DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT...MOVING IT UP THE SE COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...AND WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POP SAT INTO SUN. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER...IN THE 60S...FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 2 PM SUN...LOW PRES OFFSHORE BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS RTES WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS PRED IFR ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT MAINLY IFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS NARRE, HRRR AND SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS COULD LIFT SLIGHTLY TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS IFR/LIFR. IF CIGS DO LIFT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1500FT. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MON MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT MVFR BETWEEN 10-12Z WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VFR RETURNING AROUND 14-16Z. GUSTY NWLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT COULD BRING CROSS WIND ISSUES AT EWN RUNWAY 4R/22L. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. GUSTY S/SW WINDS EACH AFTERNOON WED THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS FRI...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF PATCHY/FOG STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH THU WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 4 PM SUN...N WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY, BECOMING NW AROUND 10-20 KT THIS EVENING. WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK TO 15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHICH CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 6-8 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS 2-4 FT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SUN...GUSTY NW WINDS 15-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT WILL START OFF THE PERIOD MON NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD. HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE TUE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST THROUGH THU...WITH S/SW FLOW RETURNING. GUSTY SW WINDS 15-25KT ARE LIKELY TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH BETTER MIXING OVER THE WARM WATER AND TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS HAVE SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT TUE NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS WITH PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMING N/NE BEHIND IT. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS FRI MORNING...AND THE ECMWF NOT UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BEHIND IT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF/SK NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...SK/CQD MARINE...SK/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
222 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WHILE DOMINATING THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 2PM SUNDAY...LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. BAND OF SHRA LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD TO MAINLY THE OBX SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR DRIZZLE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAXING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S CST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... AS OF 235 AM SUN...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE CST. THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. CONT CAA ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WILL KEEP TEMPS COLD WITH LOWS 35 TO 40 INLAND AND 40 TO 45 CST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE GULF COAST REGION EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT USHERING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...EXPECT FAIRLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS COMING INTO BETTER FOCUS AS THE MODELS ARE ILLUSTRATING A FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROPA. WHILE THE TIMING WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THE DYNAMICS SEEM TO BE WANING BY THIS POINT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEBRIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INHIBITING INSULATION. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT THE SCHC THUNDER IN FOR NOW. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON. AND AT THIS POINT THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY DRAPED OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE GULF COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY RIDING THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY NORTH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH NOSING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A MESSY WEEKEND AHEAD. WHILE IN CONTRAST...THE EURO ILLUSTRATING THE FRONT CLEARING THE AREA AND MOVING WELL OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRESSURE NOT APPROACHING EASTERN NC BY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN SUCH MODEL TIMING DISCREPANCIES...HAVE A BLANKETED SCHC POP ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS HARD TO SAY WHICH MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY...EVEN WHEN DISSECTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. BUT WITH SUCH QUICK LOW DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN IN THE GFS...SIDING WITH THE EURO SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER BET AT THIS POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO MONDAY (MID 50S) AND SLIGHT WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK (UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY) AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A FRONT. LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN WARM TEMPS AS OF LATE AND THUS EARLY BLOOMING SEASON...HAVE A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY AND CROSSES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THIS MAY MAKE FOR A NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE TYPE OF DAY. HOWEVER...IT IS A BIT FAR OUT TO TIME THE CAA AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TRENDING PURPOSES (LOW 70S). THE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE WEATHER PATTERN. AS WE LEARN MORE TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION...EXPECT COOLER HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM SUN...LOW PRES OFFSHORE BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS RTES WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS PRED IFR ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT MAINLY IFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS NARRE, HRRR AND SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS COULD LIFT SLIGHTLY TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS IFR/LIFR. IF CIGS DO LIFT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1500FT. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MON MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT MVFR BETWEEN 10-12Z WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VFR RETURNING AROUND 14-16Z. GUSTY NWLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT COULD BRING CROSS WIND ISSUES AT EWN RUNWAY 4R/22L. LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO SATURATE A BIT MORE THURSDAY UNDER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THUS...POSSIBLY FOG OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND A FRONT TO THE WEST...WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BECOME FAIRLY GUSTY BOTH WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM SUN...WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO DIMINISH SOME ACROSS THE SOUNDS BUT WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 6-9 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 2-5 FT SOUTH. N WINDS WILL CONT AT MAINLY 15 TO 20 KTS THIS EVENING THEN AS SHRT WAVE REACHES CLOSE LATE EXPECT SURGE OF NW WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 25 KTS LATE. SEAS WILL STAY ELEVATED OVER CNTRL AND ESPCLY NRN WTRS THRU TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE. OVER SRN WTRS COULD GET CLOSER TO 6 FT FAR OUTER WTRS TOWARD MON MORN AS NW WINDS INCREASE. LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SUBSIDING. WINDS 20-25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY NIGHT...SO TOO WILL THE WINDS AS THEY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THE SEAS WILL ALSO RESPOND BY DIMINISHING BELOW 6 FT BY EARLY TUESDAY. PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY SW FLOW DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL BUILD...BUT HAVE CAPPED IT TO 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS...6 FOOTERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS POSSIBLY BY LATER THURSDAY AS WINDS GUSTY ABOVE 20KTS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130- 131-135-156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF/SK SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...LEP AVIATION...RF/LEP MARINE...RF/SK/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
1035 AM PDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION. .SHORT TERM...A FRONT IS MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. EXPECT RAIN OVER MOST THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH TODAY AROUND 7000 FEET LOWERING TO 5500 TO 6500 FT THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA, AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL RUNS, HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH TO INCLUDE EASTERN DOUGLAS, JACKSON, PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES AND FROM CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BASED ON WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TODAY ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. BEHIND THE FRONT, THIS EVENING EXPECT DECREASING SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 4-4500 FT WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 4500-5000 FT EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO COAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER. ADDITIONAL GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS ON MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 TO 5500 FEET MONDAY AND EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE HIGHER PASSES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION INLAND TODAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED NOW...BUT OCCASIONAL LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VIS TO THE COAST THIS MORNING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR TURBULENCE ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST...EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS AND WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOWERING CEILINGS TO THE COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN INLAND...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SK && .MARINE...UPDATED 315 AM PDT SUN 20 MAR 2016...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GALES AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY A WEST SWELL AND REACH A PEAK ON MONDAY NIGHT THEN REMAIN HIGH INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH MODERATE SEAS WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS BECOMING HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH SEAS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH INTO SATURDAY. -DW && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM PDT SUN MAR 20 2016/ DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST THIS MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY MID MORNING. MODELS INDICATE WINDS AT 925 MB TURNS SW INTO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP INCREASE COASTAL WINDS. AREAS NEAR CAPE BLANCO COULD SEE WIND GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE SHASTA VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE EAST SIDE WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS. HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT SUITE OF WIND ADVISORIES GOING. ASIDE FROM MT SHASTA AND SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY..PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 4-4500 FT WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 4500-5000 FT EAST. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. WE ARE CURRENT FORECASTING AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW AT CRATER LAKE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW ON MOUNT SHASTA ABOVE 6500 FEET. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FEET. ANOTHER 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031. CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. $$ CC/CC/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
630 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... THE 500 HPA TROUGH AND POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO OUR EAST MONDAY AS THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. MOST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUDS AND AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW MOVING OVER THE REGION...ALOFT. WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL SURGES OF LIGHT SNOW GO UP THE VALLEY LOCALLY AND LOTS OF VIRGA STRIATIONS. TRIED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 IN SOUTHEAST. HARD TO DO WITH OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA IN A GRID. SOME BAD DATA POINTS ABOUND. SUFFICE TO SAY WILL BE AN ABNORMALLY COLD DAY AND EARLY EVENING. FEWER CLOUDS AND LOWER CHANCE FLURRIES IN NORTH AND BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING TO SLIGHT ACCUMULATION IS IN SW MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... MOST GUIDANCE IMPLIES BEST CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IS EARLY TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE TWO WETTEST 3H PERIODS IN THE SREF ARE 21 TO 00 THIS EVENING AND 00 TO 03 UTC. SO BY MIDNIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DROPS FAST. AFTER 12Z ABOUT 10 PERCENT OF SREF MEMBERS SHOW ANY CHANCE OF QPF IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST PA. THE HRRR STILL WANTS TO MAKE BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IN SW MOUNTAINS IN THE 00 TO 06 UTC TIME FRAME. SO USED LARGER SCALE MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPERED IT BY BLENDING IN THE 3KM HRRR TO SHOW SNOW POTENTIAL IN SW MOUNTAINS. PUT THIS IN KJST TAF (SEE AVIATION BELOW). NOTHING OF NOTE UNLESS YOU LIKE SNOWFLAKES. SO...EARLY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN SW MOUNTAINS AND ALONG MD BORDER. AND RAIN/SNOW IN SE WILL TURN TO WET SNOW AROUND/AFTER SUNSET. DEW POINTS ARE LOW SO ANY MIXED SHOULD GO TO SNOW FAST IF IT CONTINUES. AFTER SUNSET COLD WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. THE 500 HPA WAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST EARLY MONDAY...MONDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY BUT STILL ON THE COLD SIDE. THE 850 HPA TEMPS SHOW COLD ADVECTION EARLY MONDAY AND THEY BOTTOM OUT -8 TO -10C LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SO A CHILLY DAY FOR LATE FOR FIRST FULL DAY OF SPRING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS IN RECENT CASES...A STRONG SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DID CUT BACK SOME ON THE SHOWERS FOR WED INTO EARLY THU. WHILE A COLD FRONT COULD SAG SOUTHWARD INTO N PA...AND THERE IS AN INTENSE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 850 MB JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA...THINK SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED ON WED INTO EARLY THU. LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT STILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI. CENTRAL PA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE COLD AIR FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LIGHT SNOW BANDS ARE STREAMING THROUGH CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LITTLE TO NO RESTRICTIONS. MOST AREAS ARE VFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. SOME SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COULD LOWER VSBY TO MVFR IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. BUT VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS FROM KUNV SOUTH TOWARD KLNS WHERE SNOW BANDS COULD LINGER THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO OUR EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE. WINDS COME AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK... MON...VFR EXCEPT AM SNOW SHOWERS ISOLD MVFR MAINLY SW MOUNTAINS. TUE-WED...VFR. THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST. FRI...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...GRUMM/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... THE 500 HPA TROUGH AND POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO OUR EAST MONDAY AS THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. MOST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUDS AND AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW MOVING OVER THE REGION...ALOFT. WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL SURGES OF LIGHT SNOW GO UP THE VALLEY LOCALLY AND LOTS OF VIRGA STRIATIONS. TRIED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 IN SOUTHEAST. HARD TO DO WITH OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA IN A GRID. SOME BAD DATA POINTS ABOUND. SUFFICE TO SAY WILL BE AN ABNORMALLY COLD DAY AND EARLY EVENING. FEWER CLOUDS AND LOWER CHANCE FLURRIES IN NORTH AND BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING TO SLIGHT ACCUMULATION IS IN SW MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... MOST GUIDANCE IMPLIES BEST CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IS EARLY TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE TWO WETTEST 3H PERIODS IN THE SREF ARE 21 TO 00 THIS EVENING AND 00 TO 03 UTC. SO BY MIDNIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DROPS FAST. AFTER 12Z ABOUT 10 PERCENT OF SREF MEMBERS SHOW ANY CHANCE OF QPF IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST PA. THE HRRR STILL WANTS TO MAKE BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IN SW MOUNTAINS IN THE 00 TO 06 UTC TIME FRAME. SO USED LARGER SCALE MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TESTURED IT BY BLENDING IN THE 3KM HRRR TO SHOW SNOW POTENTIAL IN SW MOUNTAINS. PUT THIS IN KJST TAF (SEE AVIATIONBELOW). NOTHING OF NOTE UNLESS YOU LIKE SNOWFLAKES. SO...EARLY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN SW MOUNTAINS AND ALONG MD BORDER. AND RAIN/SNOW IN SE WILL TURN TO WET SNOW AROUND/AFTER SUNSET. DEW POINTS ARE LOW SO ANY MIXED SHOULD GO TO SNOW FAST IF IT CONTINUES. AFTER SUNSET COLD WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. THE 500 HPA WAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST EARLY MONDAY...MONDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY BUT STILL ON THE COLD SIDE. THE 850 HPA TEMPS SHOW COLD ADVECTION EARLY MONDAY AND THEY BOTTOM OUT -8 TO -10C LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SO A CHILLY DAY FOR LATE FOR FIRST FULL DAY OF SPRING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS IN RECENT CASES...A STRONG SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DID CUT BACK SOME ON THE SHOWERS FOR WED INTO EARLY THU. WHILE A COLD FRONT COULD SAG SOUTHWARD INTO N PA...AND THERE IS AN INTENSE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 850 MB JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA...THINK SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED ON WED INTO EARLY THU. LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT STILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI. CENTRAL PA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE COLD AIR FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MOVE THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE SNOW IS OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE DESPITE THE APPEARANCE OF RADAR. MOST AREAS ARE VFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. SOME SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COULD LOWER VSBY TO MVFR IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. BUT VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS FROM KUNV SOUTH TOWARD KLNS WHERE MODELS HINTED IT COULD SNOW BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT AS LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE. WINDS COME AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK... MON...VFR EXCEPT AM SNOW SHOWERS ISOLD MVFR MAINLY SW MOUNTAINS. TUE-WED...VFR. THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST. FRI...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...GRUMM/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
203 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... THE 500 HPA TROUGH AND POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO OUR EAST MONDAY AS THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. MOST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUDS AND AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW MOVING OVER THE REGION...ALOFT. WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL SURGES OF LIGHT SNOW GO UP THE VALLEY LOCALLY AND LOTS OF VIRGA STRIATIONS. TRIED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 IN SOUTHEAST. HARD TO DO WITH OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA IN A GRID. SOME BAD DATA POINTS ABOUND. SUFFICE TO SAY WILL BE AN ABNORMALLY COLD DAY AND EARLY EVENING. FEWER CLOUDS AND LOWER CHANCE FLURRIES IN NORTH AND BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING TO SLIGHT ACCUMULATION IS IN SW MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... MOST GUIDANCE IMPLIES BEST CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IS EARLY TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE TWO WETTEST 3H PERIODS IN THE SREF ARE 21 TO 00 THIS EVENING AND 00 TO 03 UTC. SO BY MIDNIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DROPS FAST. AFTER 12Z ABOUT 10 PERCENT OF SREF MEMBERS SHOW ANY CHANCE OF QPF IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST PA. THE HRRR STILL WANTS TO MAKE BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IN SW MOUNTAINS IN THE 00 TO 06 UTC TIME FRAME. SO USED LARGER SCALE MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TESTURED IT BY BLENDING IN THE 3KM HRRR TO SHOW SNOW POTENTIAL IN SW MOUNTAINS. PUT THIS IN KJST TAF (SEE AVIATIONBELOW). NOTHING OF NOTE UNLESS YOU LIKE SNOWFLAKES. SO...EARLY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN SW MOUNTAINS AND ALONG MD BORDER. AND RAIN/SNOW IN SE WILL TURN TO WET SNOW AROUND/AFTER SUNSET. DEW POINTS ARE LOW SO ANY MIXED SHOULD GO TO SNOW FAST IF IT CONTINUES. AFTER SUNSET COLD WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. THE 500 HPA WAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST EARLY MONDAY...MONDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY BUT STILL ON THE COLD SIDE. THE 850 HPA TEMPS SHOW COLD ADVECTION EARLY MONDAY AND THEY BOTTOM OUT -8 TO -10C LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SO A CHILLY DAY FOR LATE FOR FIRST FULL DAY OF SPRING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RISING HEIGHTS AND A SW TO WEST FLOW OF MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AFTER MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PLACEMENT OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF W ATLANTIC RIDGE. 00Z ECENS/NAEFS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF PA WED-THU WITH THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE N TIER COUNTIES. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS LIKELY TO COME FRIDAY...AS E COAST RIDGE WEAKENS AND SIG SHORTWAVE WORKS EAST THRU THE GRT LKS. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH CLOUDS OF THE STATE AND AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MOVE THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE SNOW IS OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE DESPITE THE APPEARANCE OF RADAR. MOST AREAS ARE VFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. SOME SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COULD LOWER VSBY TO MVFR IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. BUT VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS FROM KUNV SOUTH TOWARD KLNS WHERE MODELS HINTED IT COULD SNOW BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT AS LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE. WINDS COME AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK... MON...VFR EXCEPT AM SNOW SHOWERS ISOLD MVFR MAINLY SW MOUNTAINS. TUE- WED...VFR. THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
233 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)... UPPER LOW OVER WEST TN WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA NOW...WITH SOME REPORTS OF HAIL/GRAUPEL AND SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU. THE NAM AND RAP FOCUS LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE SMOKIES. WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL HOVERING AROUND 2000 FT DURING THIS TIME...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE THAT LEVEL. THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR OVERDONE WITH SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE PLATEAU AND VALLEY...WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. BUT THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES...WITH MORE POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED. LATER TONIGHT...CLEARING WILL COME BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE AREAS COVERED BY THE FREEZE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING...ALTHOUGH THE CHATTANOOGA METRO AREA WILL BE BORDERLINE. IN THE MOUNTAINS...SOME ICY SPOTS ON ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S...AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE NPW. .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... COLD SPRING TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FREEZE IS LOOKING LIKELY MAINLY NORTH OF I-40...IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NC. IF YOU HAVE SENSITIVE VEGETATION TAKING PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT IT WOULD PROBABLY BE WISE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOWER RH/S AND A BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE CONCERN FOR WILDLAND FIRE AGENCIES. HIGHER RH/S EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUICIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS MODEL WAS MUCH LATER ARRIVING THAN USUAL BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT REMAINS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. EARLIER MODELS WERE HINTING AT A DRY FRIDAY...RETURNING TO WET SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS INDICATES THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE DELAYED AS MUCH AS 24 HOURS...HOLDING OFF UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND MODEL ALSO WAS HINTING AT THE DELAY AS WELL. OBVIOUSLY THIS IS STILL A LONG WAYS OUT AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 56 35 66 / 30 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 52 34 63 / 60 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 32 52 33 63 / 40 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 28 49 30 61 / 20 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CHEROKEE- CLAY. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY- CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER- HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON- MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE- RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT- WASHINGTON. && $$ DGS/AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
355 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY...THEN PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY... 12Z GFS MODEL RAN 2 HOURS LATE BUT WITHOUT UPPER AIR OR AIRCRAFT DATA. FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING HAS BEEN HEAVILY WEIGHTED TO THE HRRR...THEN USED THE NAM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FOR THE DAY MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TENNESSEE IS MOVING EAST AND WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WAS FALLING PRIMARILY AS RAIN...HOWEVER WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER AIR OVER THE MTNS OF TN/NC...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN AN AXIS FROM MOUNTAIN EMPIRE VA SOUTH INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NC. THE HRRR EXPANDS THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 23Z/7PM...THEN MOVES IT EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND 04Z MIDNIGHT. AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF IS FORECAST...AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW FOR OUR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN VA AND INTO THE NW NC HIGH COUNTRY...AND POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ON BEECH MTN. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE A STRETCH TO GET THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATION. THE PTYPE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FOOTHILLS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONGER SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP WITH MODEST PRESSURE RISES OVER THE NC MTNS. A 35 TO 40 KT 8H NORTHWESTERLY JET IS PROGGED BY 12Z MONDAY RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWERING INVERSION AND SOME CLEARING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NC MTNS INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE VA BLUE RIDGE FROM FANCY GAP TO ROANOKE. WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. ONCE THE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THEN LOOK FOR THEM TO DIP BELOW FREEZING. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NC FOOTHILLS. THE GROWING SEASON PER COLLABORATION WITH AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION AGENTS HAS ALSO STARTED IN SMYTH AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA THANKS TO THE WARMER TEMPS THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO GSP AND MRX THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 10AM MONDAY. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL...BUT AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY... THE 12Z GFS WAS ABOUT TWO HOURS LATE TODAY DUE TO TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES. FORTUNATELY...IT PAINTS THE SAME STORY AS THE 12Z NAM AND THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT WILL SEND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FLATTENS AND TURNS ZONAL BY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE MID ATLANTIC A SOUTHWEST FLOW. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH HIGHS TOWARD THE 50S AND 60S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THUS...THE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SEND HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ORGANIZE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND HEAD EAST OF THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS MAY BE NOTICED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE OF ANY RAIN ARRIVES LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY... THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE IN THE MODELS. THE GFS PUSHES THE MOISTURE INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND HAS THE FRONT EXITING ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE MOISTURE INTO THE CWA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...AND HAS THE FRONT EXITING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE HELD THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE RAMPING IT UP ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE TIMING OFF THE ECMWF WOULD MAKE IT COMPLETELY UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...THE GFS ALLOWS A SMALL WINDOW FOR CONVECTION TO THE WEST BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FURTHER LOOK AT THE CAPE VALUES INDICATES HARDLY ANY INSTABILITY PRESENT IN THE GFS...SO NO THUNDER WAS INSERTED THROUGHOUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY COULD LIKELY END UP 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE HIGHS FROM THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS PUSHES A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARD THE CWA. DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT CHANCES OF RAIN COULD RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY... SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY. ALL TAF SITES WILL BE STUCK IN LOW END MVFR TO LIFR AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THIS EVENING. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH WORSE TO OUR SOUTH WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NC INTO EASTERN TN AND NORTHERN GA. THINGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNING MONDAY. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN LOW END MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT IN THE MTNS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ009. NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ003-019-020. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...PM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 250 PM PDT SUN MAR 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cool, wet and breezy weather pattern will return to the Inland Northwest this week. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday with the arrival of a cold front. On Tuesday, the mountains of the central and southern Idaho Panhandle will have a good chance of receiving heavy and wet snow. A brief break in the active pattern on Wednesday will be followed by wet and locally windy conditions Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight...Clouds continue to thicken and lower ahead of the incoming wet frontal system that will spread rain (with snow for the very higher mountain locations above five to six thousand feet above mean sea level) from southwest to northeast tonight over Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho. The HRRR runs of the past few hours have a fairly good depiction of the scenario with rainfall expected in the Spokane area between 4 and 5 pm PDT. As to be expected with the good warm south and southwest trajectories of flow through the frontal zone forecast temperatures overnight tonight will remain on the warm side of climo. /Pelatti Monday: The moist frontal system that is expected to move through tonight will cause temperatures to be a handful of degrees cooler on Monday. It looks like afternoon highs will be in the 50s for most of the Inland Northwest. The cooling aloft behind tonight`s front will be more significant. Steepening mid-level lapse rates on Monday combined with an approaching upper trough will create an environment favorable for the formation of spring-time showers. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are forecasting enough deep layer instability for widely scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. At this time, it looks like the most concentrated thunderstorm activity will be over central and northeast Oregon Monday afternoon where 500mb cooling will be the most pronounced under the incoming upper trough, but it is hard to rule out the possibility of thunderstorms over much of Washington and north Idaho. Small hail, brief heavy rain, and cloud to ground lightning will be the primary hazards Monday afternoon and early evening. Monday night and Tuesday: Our attention Monday night into Tuesday will turn to falling snow levels and the potential for a locally heavy band of precipitation over the Camas Prairie, central Idaho Panhandle, and possibly the Palouse. There is decent agreement between the GFS, ECMWF and NAM that an inch or more of liquid equivalent could fall within a deformation band late Monday night into Tuesday evening. Snow levels will be very tricky, and we could see them drop as low as 2500 feet over the Clearwaters, Palouse and southern Shoshone county. A Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Warning may be necessary. At this time, 8 to 12 inches looks like a good bet for elevations above 3500 feet in southern Shoshone county, and these amounts could occur at lower elevations depending on the behavior and orientation of the deformation band. Late season snow accumulations could even be possible in places like Moscow, Pullman, St Maries, Winchester, Deary, and Clarkia. If precipitation falls in the form of rain, we will likely see rises on rivers and streams like Paradise Creek in Moscow, the Palouse River, and Hangman Creek. Wednesday and Thursday: Our region should be in between systems on Wednesday as on system pulls out of the Idaho Panhandle during the morning before the next more progressive frontal system arrives Wednesday night. The frontal system Wednesday night will be accompanied with stronger mid-level westerly flow. Look for a pronounced "rain shadow" Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the Columbia Basin receiving little measurable precipitation while the mountains get much more. Snow levels look to be around 4000 feet Wednesday night into Thursday morning so Lookout Pass and Stevens Pass will have the best shot of being impacted by significant accumulations. Behind our fast moving front, Thursday looks to be breezy over the Palouse, West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. /GKoch Thursday night through Sunday...There is good model agreement of an upper trough dropping into the region from the northwest Thursday night into Friday. This will result in a chance of showers in the valleys with snow showers likely in the mountains. Wet snow may mix in as low as 2000 to 2500 feet Friday morning. Northwest flow will favor the best chances for accumulating snow in the Cascade mountains...Blue Mountains...Camas Prairie...and Central Panhandle Mountains. With the higher late March sun angle travel impacts in the mountains should be confined to mainly overnight Thursday night and early Friday except under the heavier snow showers. A short wave ridge moves over the area on Saturday for drier conditions. The ECMWF and GEM hold on to the ridge into Sunday while the GFS is quicker to bring in another system. Right now the forecast leans towards dry conditions for Sunday as well. JW && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Clouds continue to thicken and lower as they invade the sky from the south and west ahead of the next incoming wet frontal system. Precipitation in the form of rain for starting as early as 20Z for the far western locations near KEAT and points to the west but for KPUW up to KGEG and east it will be slower to start with rain starting between 1-3Z Monday and continuing on through much of the night and bringing on MVFR conditions due to the lower ceilings associated with the rain. Back edge of the wet front exits from west to east allowing rain to stop as early as 7Z Monday for KEAT vicinity to as late as 14-16Z for KGEG and KCOE. /Pelatti && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 41 54 37 47 34 50 / 90 30 80 70 30 10 Coeur d`Alene 41 54 36 47 34 49 / 90 40 80 80 30 10 Pullman 42 54 38 43 35 49 / 90 40 100 80 40 10 Lewiston 44 58 41 47 38 55 / 90 50 90 80 40 10 Colville 37 57 35 50 33 53 / 80 30 40 30 20 10 Sandpoint 39 52 35 46 34 48 / 90 40 60 60 40 20 Kellogg 39 49 35 42 31 45 / 90 50 100 90 50 30 Moses Lake 42 61 39 53 35 56 / 70 20 80 50 10 10 Wenatchee 40 57 39 52 37 54 / 50 30 70 20 10 10 Omak 37 57 37 54 34 56 / 60 20 60 30 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
549 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO AND APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND IS GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE CU FIELD HAS NOT BEEN AS ROBUST FARTHER SOUTH...AND THINK SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SKY TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SHORT-TERM. TONIGHT...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE HIGHER RES MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A SMALL CHANCE REMAINS THAT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO FAR N-C WISCONSIN AND THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE DOOR. ELSEWHERE...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO BE PRESENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS THAT BUILD THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NORTH...EVEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SOME BREAKS WILL INEVITABLY OCCUR THOUGH. EXCEPT FOR THE DOOR PENINSULA...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ONCE THE CU DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SINCE WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS AROUND...LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. MONDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MORNING. THOUGH DIURNAL BUILD UP OF CU SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...WILL HAVE AMPLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. HIGHS AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 HIGHLIGHT OF THIS PERIOD TOWARD MID WEEK AS PROGS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO PASS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION INCLUDING A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT FIRST...FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED WITH A UPPER 100 KT JETLET LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE AREA. FORECAST TEMPS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW FOR FAR NORTHEAST THEN TRENDING TO LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION APPEARS STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS SEPARATING THE COLD AIR MASS TO THE NORTH WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THE REGION OF HEAVY SNOW STARTING MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS INCREASING FOR THE REGION DUE TO A COLDER TREND...CONFIDENCE OF THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND REMAINS LOW. OVERVIEW OF THE LATEST PROGS...THE GFS PAINTS THE HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WELL SOUTH. THE CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BUT INCLUDES HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALL PROGS DEVELOP A VERY INTENSE FGEN BAND OF SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SURFACE AND H850 LOW TRACK OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE BLUSTERY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINTER RETURNS TO THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER BUT COOL REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS SUGGESTS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT DROPS OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CLD DECK TO DEVELOP AND DROP SWD INTO NRN WI IN THE WAKE OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV EXITING THE ERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. QUITE A FEW CLDS ACRS THE UPPER PENINSULA RIGHT NOW...BUT THEY ARE SOMEWHAT CELLULAR LOOKING AND MAY TEND TO DIMINISH AFTER DUSK. ADDITIONAL CLDS COULD FORM OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TNGT. MID-LVL HEIGHTS EDGE DOWN UNTIL ABOUT 10Z...THEN BEGIN TO REBOUND. AIR TEMPERATURE/LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR CLDS. WL STICK CLOSE TO THE PREV FCST FOR N-C WI FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO PULL BACK SOME ON THE CLDS IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE IF ADDITIONAL CLD DEVELOPMENT IS NOT APPARENT BY LATE EVENING. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......TDH AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO AND APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND IS GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE CU FIELD HAS NOT BEEN AS ROBUST FARTHER SOUTH...AND THINK SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SKY TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SHORT-TERM. TONIGHT...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE HIGHER RES MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A SMALL CHANCE REMAINS THAT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO FAR N-C WISCONSIN AND THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE DOOR. ELSEWHERE...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO BE PRESENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS THAT BUILD THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NORTH...EVEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SOME BREAKS WILL INEVITABLY OCCUR THOUGH. EXCEPT FOR THE DOOR PENINSULA...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ONCE THE CU DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SINCE WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS AROUND...LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. MONDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MORNING. THOUGH DIURNAL BUILD UP OF CU SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...WILL HAVE AMPLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. HIGHS AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 HIGHLIGHT OF THIS PERIOD TOWARD MID WEEK AS PROGS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO PASS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION INCLUDING A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT FIRST...FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED WITH A UPPER 100 KT JETLET LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE AREA. FORECAST TEMPS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW FOR FAR NORTHEAST THEN TRENDING TO LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION APPEARS STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS SEPARATING THE COLD AIR MASS TO THE NORTH WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THE REGION OF HEAVY SNOW STARTING MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS INCREASING FOR THE REGION DUE TO A COLDER TREND...CONFIDENCE OF THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND REMAINS LOW. OVERVIEW OF THE LATEST PROGS...THE GFS PAINTS THE HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WELL SOUTH. THE CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BUT INCLUDES HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALL PROGS DEVELOP A VERY INTENSE FGEN BAND OF SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SURFACE AND H850 LOW TRACK OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE BLUSTERY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINTER RETURNS TO THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER BUT COOL REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS SUGGESTS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT DROPS OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH TO CREATE SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND NORTH-CENTRAL WI INTO MONDAY MORNING DUE NORTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS BUILDING AGAIN BY MIDDAY. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......TDH AVIATION.......MPC