Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/19/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
246 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.
THE FIRST OF TWO 100+KT JET STREAKS IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO WNW PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
FRIDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH FOR THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES ARE INITIALLY BORDERLINE
AND CONDITIONS ARE A TAD DRIER. MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT
MOVING DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE NE BRINGING A MORE
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH MOISTURE BUTTED UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS TO BRING
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SNOW. HRRR SHOWING SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS
FRONT FOR THE EXTREME NE COUNTIES BUT THE MODEL HAS HAD A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM SO STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THOSE COUNTIES. BANDING WILL BECOME A MAJOR FORECASTING CHALLENGE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE EXACT LOCATION OF SET-UP IS DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN. MODELS STILL SHOWING A SECONDARY JET STREAK MOVING
SE INTO THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A SECONDARY SURGE
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND LARIMER COUNTY AFTER A
LULL IN THE EVENING. WINTER STORM WARNING IS OUT UNTIL 6 PM
FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONTINUED SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO SHOW
UPSLOPE INCREASING OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
PORTIONS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME.ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM SO MELTING MAY OCCUR
AT FIRST BUT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO FREEZE AND SNOW TO START TO
ACCUMULATE.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLIER ONSET OF
CLOUDS.TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE
40S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE EXTREME NE AND SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE THE CLOUDS DID NOT QUITE REACH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
TURN MORE NE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS AIRMASS BECOMES MORE SUBSIDENT.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS NEARLY CENTERED OVERHEAD SO CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING TO MIDNIGHT OR LATER. FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.
FOR SATURDAY...DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS STILL PERSISTENT SHOWING MORE MOISTURE IN THIS
FLOW SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE. IT WILL STILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND AND NO
DOWNSLOPE.
BY SUNDAY...LEE TROUGHING AND WARM ADVECTION OCCURS. EVEN WITH
SOME LINGERING SNOW COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RISE INTO THE MID 50S ON THE PLAINS.
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE. GFS SEEMS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH A PIECE OF THE NEXT TROUGH REACHING THE FORECAST
AREA LATE MONDAY...BUT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA. WILL LOWER TEMPS A
BIT FROM GUIDANCE AND HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE LOWEST OF ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MUTIPLE DISTURBANCES PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
KEEP LOWERED CEILINGS AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST. THE INSTABILTY
WILL CREATE BANDING THAT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
LESS THAN A MILE. OTHERWISE SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES STILL EXPECTED BY TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO
MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING BRINGING WINDS TO A NE DIRECTION WITH
SOME GUSTING UPTO 25 MPH.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
FRIDAY FOR COZ036-039>045.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ031-033-035-
038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...BOWEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE MAINE AND
CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH
THIS WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH AND
STRENGTHENS OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER
TO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE I95 CORRIDOR AND THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AFTER THE INVERSION BROKE LATE
THIS MORNING, WINDS BEGAN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. LAST HOUR, THE
REGION WAS SEEING GUSTS TO ABOUT 20-25 MPH, BUT IN THE SHOWERS,
WINDS WERE GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH.
THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A
DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE SHOWERS, SO AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET, THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE. THE HRRR DOES CARRY THE
REMAINING SHOWERS OFF THE COAST. WE KEPT A VERY LOW POP
REFERENCE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
30S ACROSS THE POCONOS. UPPER 30S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BERKS, THE
LEHIGH VALLEY, PARTS OF NORTHWEST NJ, AND THE PINES OF SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY. ELSEWHERE, LOW 40S ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WHEN THE SUN SETS. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT, COMING IN FROM THE NORTH, WILL TRACK THROUGH ABOUT
2/3RDS OF CWA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TOMORROW EVENING.
IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE. THAT SAID, I DON`T
HAVE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN SHORE.
WE COULD SEE ABOUT A 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. I`VE
PAINTED HIGH IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE POCONOS AND THE MID 60S
ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE.
WINDS, LIKE TODAY, ARE GOING TO BE NOTICEABLE ONCE THE INVERSION
BREAKS. WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE LOOKS LIKE
A GOOD BET.
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING WITH THE FOG.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THE COASTAL STORM
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE STORM WITH SEVERAL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS THE
FASTEST, WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THE NAM AND CANADIAN ARE
GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO. THE GFS IS INDICATING THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE
THE ECMWF DOESN`T BRING MUCH IN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CANADIAN
AND NAM GENERALLY BRING PRECIPITATION IN DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SO FOR NOW, WE`VE INCREASE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTH. SUNDAY HAS THE
HIGHEST POPS EVERYWHERE AS THIS WILL THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR
PRECIPITATION BASED ON CONSENSUS WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. AS WE
PROGRESS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST CLEARING THE
PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH ALL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS, SO WE`LL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT SUNDAY.
THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHAT THE P-TYPES WILL BE. AS ALWAYS,
BUT EVEN MORE SO IN THIS TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN SEASONS, THE
THERMAL PROFILE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON WHERE
PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW OR RAIN, OR A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW. PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES AREAS
BASICALLY RIGHT ALONG, AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT. HOWEVER, WITH
WARM GROUND AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES, SNOW AMOUNTS COULD POSSIBLY
LIMITED. THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE WON`T GET AN ACCUMULATION. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD BEGIN AS SNOW, THEN MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AT TIMES, THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE IT ENDS. FOR AREAS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALL
SNOW, WE COULD SEE AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW, WHILE AREAS THAT
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN MAY NOT SEE MUCH AT ALL. AREAS IN BETWEEN
COULD SEE MAYBE 1-2 INCHES, WITH LESS FOR THOSE WHO MIX. AS
USUAL, THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES,
SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
THE LOW WILL BE LIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA MONDAY, WHICH WILL
KEEP OUR AREA UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME SHOWERS COULD AFFECT OUR AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW,
ESPECIALLY AS WE`LL BE UNDER THE COOL POOL OF THE TROUGH ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS WELL. WINDS MONDAY COULD
GUST 25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF
OUR AREA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT MAY POSSIBLY STALL OUT
TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AS A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY DRAPED BACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
MEANWHILE, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES MAY
TRAVERSE THE AREA WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW, WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR, EXCEPT MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS GUSTING IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE WILL
SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, BUT WITHOUT THE MORNING FOG. VFR,
EXCEPT MVFR IN SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TOPPING
OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR, PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...VFR, THOUGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. LOWERING
CONDITIONS LIKELY NOT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR EARLY, LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR
WITH SNOW AND RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
20-25 KNOTS.
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR, ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. STRONG WIND GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WINDS ARE SIMPLY NOT MIXING DOWN OUTSIDE OF THE
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID, EXPECT WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE. IN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS, WINDS COULD GUST FOR A
BRIEF TIME UP TO 30 KT. SINCE ANY WIND GUST IN EXCESS OF 25 KT
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN, WE`LL COVER WITH THE MWW OR MWS.
TONIGHT...THE WEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY. WE`LL SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH WINDS IN
THE 25 TO 40 KT JUST OFF THE SURFACE, BUT WITH THE INVERSION IN
PLACE, WE`RE NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO MIX DOWN ENTIRELY. OUR VERY
NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BAYS WERE THE CONCERN TODAY, THE LAND/WATER
INTERFACE. THE SAME GOES FOR TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EXPECTED.
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF COASTAL STORM.
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTING
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REACH AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS, AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE STORM, AND MONDAY BEHIND THE
STORM.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL LOW RH VALUES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 25-35 MPH BOTH
AFTERNOONS, AND RH VALUES COULD LOWER INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR SOME
AREAS. AFTER DISCUSSING WITH STATE PARTNERS, IT WAS DETERMINED THAT
THE FUELS HAVE NOT DRIED TO CRITICAL LEVELS. SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY ENHANCED STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
COORDINATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IF THERE ARE ANY CHANGES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
722 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Saturday]...
Recent surface observations reveal a variety of MVFR and IFR conds
across much of the Gulf coast sections of MS/AL/W FL. SHRA and
isold TS is ongoing across the offshore waters of Mobile Bay and
another area across MS/AL. Short term model guidance depicts that
the TAF sites will encounter SHRA and RA through much of the night
time hours. Cigs should be predominately low MVFR and IFR with
the exception of heavier convection which may cause brief VFR
conds. A much stronger cold front will be inbound for Saturday
which will help begin the swing around of surface winds to
westerly and northwesterly late in the TAF period and will also
help slowly improve flight conditions and end precipitation mainly
from north to south Saturday afternoon.
&&
.Prev Discussion [422 PM EDT]...
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Radar and satellite mosaics continue to show a large area of rain
and embedded convection over the north-central Gulf of Mexico and
adjacent parts of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. As
was discussed earlier this morning, the MCS over the Gulf has
limited the northward expansion of the LLJ over land portions of the
Southeast. This is confirmed by looking at surface and VWP wind
observations, as well as recent RAP analysis. Essentially the area
of low-level convergence in which the rain and storms have been
developing has only been further enhanced while remaining relatively
stationary. That has largely prevented any rain or thunderstorms
from affecting our area. Scattered thunderstorms were also forming
in a separate region north of I-20 in central Mississippi and
central Alabama. The overall result has been that our area has
largely stayed dry for much of the day. PoPs were further decreased
prior to 21-22Z over most of the area, and temperatures were nudged
down again as mid-high level cloud layers continue to stream NE off
the Gulf convection.
Looking ahead to tonight, there are some signs that rain will
finally build into the forecast area. In addition to cooling and
northward-expanding cloud tops near coastal LA, MS, AL, there has
also been an increase in convection in the past 1-2 hours between I-
20 and the coast in MS and AL. All of this is indicative of
increasing ascent, which should allow rain to fill in this afternoon
and evening and push east. There is not a cohesive timeline
portrayed by the global or convection allowing models, so we just
showed a general trend toward 50-70% PoPs tonight. There may be
sufficient overlap of marginal elevated instability and around 40
knots of 0-6km bulk shear to produce a few stronger storms
overnight, with hail being the primary threat.
.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
On Saturday, a slow moving or stationary boundary will be in place
over the region. As a result POPs will be high around 70 percent for
nearly all locations. Thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon
with a marginal risk for severe. With CAPE forecast at 500 to 900
and 0 to 6 km shear forecast at 30 to 40 knots, a few isolated
severe storms are possible. By Saturday night, the cold front is
forecast to pick up some speed. Northwest portions of the region
will see decreasing POPs at this time and southeast portions of the
region will see POPs in the 40 to 65 percent range with thunder
possible. Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s. Lows Saturday night
will be in the low to mid 40s in northwest portions of the region
and upper 40s and lower 50s elsewhere.
On Sunday, the cold front is forecast to be southeast of the region.
Expect drier weather and much cooler temperatures. Despite mostly
sunny skies, highs will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s for most
of the region. Sunday night, lows will be in the upper 30s for all
locations except for the immediate coast.
.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Most of the coming week is expected to be fairly uneventful.
Subsidence aloft associated with a high pressure system will promote
cooler and drier conditions over the area early in the week. There
is a possibility of low temperatures in the 30s before sunrise on
Monday morning and again on Monday night. Later in the week, a low
pressure system is expected to track northeastward across the
midwest, dragging a cold front across the southeastern states. The
flow of gulf moisture ahead of the cold front will promote a steady
increase of temperatures and humidity through the later parts of the
week. The threat of thunderstorms is expected to return by Friday as
the front approaches our area.
.Marine...
Light southerly winds are expected tonight and Saturday. Also
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected as a cold front
approaches. A few storms may be severe. Late Saturday evening, winds
will begin to shift to the northwest as the cold front passes. Winds
will increase to SCA levels (20 to 25 knots) around midnight for
western portions of marine waters. SCA level winds will spread to
all marine waters by Sunday morning. Winds and seas will remain
elevated until Monday afternoon.
.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected through the
weekend.
.Hydrology...
An additional 1-3 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday
night across most of the area with localized additional amounts of
5 inches possible. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur
during the overnight hours tonight. The large scale rainfall
amounts are not expected to be heavy enough for widespread
flooding, but some isolated instances of flooding could occur
tonight when the heaviest rainfall rates occur. Area rivers will
be on the rise with the lower Choctawhatchee and Apalachicola
basins the most likely to be impacted over the next several days.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 64 77 50 64 39 / 70 70 60 10 0
Panama City 65 72 51 61 44 / 70 70 40 0 0
Dothan 61 72 45 59 38 / 70 70 20 0 0
Albany 62 75 46 60 38 / 70 70 30 0 0
Valdosta 63 77 51 63 39 / 60 60 60 10 0
Cross City 63 79 56 68 39 / 50 50 60 20 0
Apalachicola 66 74 53 63 44 / 70 60 60 10 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...KING/MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...DVD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
327 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORMS WERE AFFECTING FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS IN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE STATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SOME CONVECTION SOUTHWARD TOWARDS ORLANDO/CANAVERAL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MODEL ALSO DEVELOPS SHOWERS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN BREVARD AFTER SUNSET. THIS LOOKS
POSSIBLE AS AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WAS PUSHING INLAND AROUND
THE CAPE...AND ALSO FOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...SO
HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE INTERIOR SINCE THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY YIELDING
SOME FOG/STRATUS...AND NO AIR MASS CHANGE HAS OCCURRED.
FRI...THE 12Z GFS SHOWED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING OFFSHORE TO
OUR NORTH WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF IT REACHING INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A VERY SHALLOW LAYER. THERE WILL BE A
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT THOUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EARLIER AND MOVE MUCH FARTHER INLAND.
THE GFS SHOWED LIMITED MOISTURE TO START OFF THE DAY...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. AS A RESULT...THE 12Z MOS POPS
CAME IN QUITE LOW...RANGING FROM 40 PERCENT NORTH TO 10 PERCENT
SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY THOUGH...THE MOS POPS GO UP
AFTER SUNSET. DO NOT WANT TO GO AS LOW AS THE LATEST MOS...BUT
HAVE TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST VALUES DOWN ABOUT 10 PERCENT.
EXPECT SOME DIFFUSE MORNING SUNSHINE THROUGH CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS
AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO QUICKER SEA BREEZE ONSET. IT WILL CONTINUE
QUITE COLD ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS FORECAST MINUS 11-13 CELSIUS.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF AN IMPULSE ALOFT APPROACHING LATE IN
THE DAY...SO A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON-EVENING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
WITH LATEST INDICATIONS SHOWING THIS CHANCE WOULD FAVOR THE NORTH
INTERIOR.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING THAT SAT AND SAT
NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN. INCREASED
DEPTH OF MOISTURE WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THE -12C TO -14C
RANGE INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT EVENING.
AND THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE AFTN INTO THE
EVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN PUSHING INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT ASSOCD WITH THE FRONT. SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AROUND
60 PERCENT POPS SAT AND AROUND 50 PERCENT SAT NIGHT. HIGHS MID
80S...LOWS LOW AND MID 60S.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...MID LEVEL/500MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST TO FLORIDA SUN NIGHT. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST IT PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
SUN AND SUN NIGHT. GFS LOOKS TO HAVE CHANGED IT THINKING ABOUT THE
JET BY HAVING JET CORE/MAX LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE GA/SC COAST AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT PUSH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN AND SUN
EVENING MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE DEEP ENOUGH...500MB TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE -12C TO -14C RANGE AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES STILL
CROSSING OVERHEAD WOULD TEND TO KEEP IN THE 60 PERCENT AREA SUN
TAPERING OFF TO 30 PERCENT SUN EVENING. GFS SHOWING DECREASING
MOISTURE RIBBON OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING WITH DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES. CLOUD COVER KEEPS HIGHS MID 70S. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MID 50S SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS EXTENDED MON-THU...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
CENTER WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON TUE AND BEGIN TO
MODIFY THE AIR MASS...SO THE COOL SHOT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. HIGH
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S ON MONDAY (LOWER 70S FAR
SOUTH) WITH LOWS TUE MORNING IN THE MID 40S DOWN TO CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WED
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY
NORTH OF KMCO-KTIX INTO EARLY EVENING. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTHWARD TO KMLB...THEN VFR...EXCEPT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE
NIGHT FOG AGAIN. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS YET BUT IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS OVER THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND ADVECT THE FOG INLAND FROM THE
WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA SLOWER. DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON FRI AND SHOULD EXPAND FARTHER SOUTHWARD. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THE BAHAMAS WILL WEAKEN AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO WEAKEN WITH WIND DIRECTIONS LOOKING QUITE VARIABLE AND SPEEDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE MAIN MARINER HAZARD WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET WILL BE DUE
MAINLY TO A NORTHEAST SWELL WITH PERIODS 12-14 SECONDS.
SAT...THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING
THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR MARINERS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS FRI WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH AND S/SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. ON SAT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTH OF THE
WATERS WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME
OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER LAND AND MOVE OFFSHORE COULD BE
STRONG.
SUN-MON...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST EARLY
SUNDAY WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT BACK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. A
BREEZY WEST FLOW IS EXPECTED EARLY THEN FRESHENING NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW TO NEAR 20 KNOTS IS FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND
THE FRONT. A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EXISTS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CANAVERAL. WINDS MON SHOULD HOLD FROM THE
NORTH AND LIKELY BE IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. SO A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF STREAM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 64 80 65 80 / 20 40 60 50
MCO 67 85 68 83 / 20 30 40 40
MLB 66 82 69 82 / 20 30 40 50
VRB 63 84 67 83 / 20 20 30 50
LEE 66 84 67 82 / 20 30 40 30
SFB 65 83 67 83 / 20 40 50 40
ORL 68 85 69 83 / 20 30 40 40
FPR 63 84 67 83 / 20 20 30 50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1004 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...EARLY MORNING STRATUS WAS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT TAMPA AND CANAVERAL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. SO THE STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT BEFORE MIDDAY. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH WHERE HEATING WILL BE THE
MOST LIMITED...WHILE CENTRAL/SOUTH BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S.
MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE...
AROUND 0.80 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER. AN AREA OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WAS LOCATED TO OUR NORTH ALONG/AHEAD OF QUASI STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME OF THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE WORKING INTO THE
BIG BEND REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO HELP PROPAGATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN SHOWING SOME LIGHTNING ACROSS NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH THE QUITE COLD 500MB TEMPS...MINUS 13-14 CELSIUS.
THERE WILL BE A SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS AS THE
SOUTH HALF LOOKS TOO DRY TO INITIATE ANY DEEP CONVECTION TODAY. SOME
LINGERING BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD GENERATE A FEW CELLS DOWN INTO
OSCEOLA AND THE TREASURE COAST THIS EVENING.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED TO CURRENT FORECAST...JUST SOME
MINOR POP/CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...THE STRATUS CEILINGS WILL BE BREAKING UP BETWEEN 14-15Z
THEN VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY KMCO-KTIX NORTHWARD.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS FOR DAYTIME BOATERS...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE COAST. THE
MAIN MARINER CONCERN WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE
LIGHTNING STRIKES...PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ERODE CONCERNS FOR MIN RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW THRESHOLD. INLAND VALUES SHOULD STAY 35 PERCENT OR
ABOVE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY ORANGE COUNTY SOUTH. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF ORLANDO AND TITUSVILLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
DAYTONA BEACH 88 IN 2015
ORLANDO INTL 93 IN 1921
MELBOURNE 89 IN 1963
VERO BEACH 90 IN 1976
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
906 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPED SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE AND SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AROUND SUNRISE. CURRENT AREA OF FOG/LOW
CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST PALM BEACH AREA TO THE NAPLES AREA.
THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY 10 AM AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND PLENTY OF
DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AND WITH S/SW LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
EXCEPT ALONG BOTH GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS WHERE SEA BREEZE ONSET
AROUND MIDDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE HRRR MODEL
SHOWS ONE OR TWO LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, BUT WITH PREDOMINANCE OF DRY AIR THIS
SHOULD BE THE MOST WE CAN EXPECT AS FAR AS PRECIP IS CONCERNED.
LOWERED DEW POINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND
MIXING TO THE SURFACE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. /MOLLEDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016/
AVIATION...
STRATUS DECK AROUND 400-500 FT OVER SW FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AFFECTING KAPF/NAPLES AND VICINITY SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z, WITH
PERHAPS A FEW/SCT LAYER AROUND 1000-2000 FT AT EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THAT SAME TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE OVER AND TO OUR SOUTH
SHOULD ENSURE ANOTHER MAINLY DRY AND VFR DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
WINDS WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS
STARTING BY 16Z, THEN GOING LIGHT OFFSHORE BY 02Z-03Z. /MOLLEDA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016/
.RAINY FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
.POTENTIAL INCREASE IN RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE WEEKEND...
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONCLUDE THE WORK WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH WITH SUPPORT FROM A MID-LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM HELPS CLEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE ON MONDAY, DRIER AIR
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TO KICK OFF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. BY LATE
IN THE PERIOD, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE IN TO CLOSE NEXT WEEK.
AVAILABLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBILITIES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE RANGING FROM 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNTIL THE
REINFORCING FRONT COMES IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES LOWER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WITH THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH A PEAK
OF ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING
MAXES. 02/RAG
MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES. RIP CURRENT RISK MAY INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS SWELL ENERGY BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM A
POTENTIAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA. 02/RAG
FIRE WEATHER...
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG REMAINS A CONCERN. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD AFFECT
ERC VALUES ACROSS THE REGION POSSIBLY MITIGATING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. 02/RAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 67 86 70 / 10 0 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 71 86 73 / 0 0 10 20
MIAMI 85 69 86 72 / 0 0 10 30
NAPLES 82 66 85 69 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
447 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE SERN U.S.
FROM A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE NC COAST SW TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT. LOCALLY...WINDS
ARE LIGHT SWLY WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE W AS THE COLD FRONT AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHIFT EWD. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...CERTAINLY
MILD BY MIDDLE MARCH STANDARDS. LOW STRATUS HAS FORMED ONCE AGAIN
AS WELL...MAINLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NE FL AT THIS TIME...AND
SHOULD BE SLIDING EWD NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE MIXED
IN WITH THE STRATUS AT TIMES THROUGH SUNRISE AS STRATUS BUILDS
DOWN TOWARD THE SFC.
.SHORT TERM...
FOR TODAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SEWD AND MOVE TO SERN GA TO
SRN AL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE OUT OF AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA WHICH WILL SPREAD E AND SE. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT FOR NE FL BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND MODEL BLEND.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MOST AREAS BY THE
AFTN HOURS. THE CHANCE OF ANY STRONG STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY MINIMAL
WITH LINGERING SUBSIDENCE AROUND 8-10 KFT AND LOW INSTABILITY WITH
SBCAPE OF NEAR 1000 J/KG. SFC TEMPS WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE LOWER
80S DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO NOT TESTING RECORDS HIGHS TODAY
LIKE RECENT DAYS.
TONIGHT...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY FADE WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT STALLED FRONT OVER SRN GA AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS OVER NRN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS FROM UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH WX FCST FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH THE GFS...EURO...AND NAM SHOWING MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE (PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES) BUT ARE A BIT DIFFERENT WITH
FRONTAL POSITION OVER AL AND SRN GA AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE...
FAVORABLE 250MB SPEED DIVERGENCE AND THE STALLED FRONT...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS UP BASED ON COMPROMISE OF MODELS AND USED LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
DISCOURAGE ANY HIGH INSTABILITY SO ONLY HAVE ISOLD TSTMS FOR NOW.
CLOUD COVER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MIDDLE SECTIONS OF THE
AREA WILL HOLD HIGHS TO LOWER VALUES...IN THE 70S MOST AREAS
EXCEPT NEAR 80 IN THE WARM SECTION OVER SRN PARTS.
A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI EVENING WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SUN.
CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRI
NIGHT...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE OUR
REGION ON FRI EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
GAINESVILLE TO ST.AUGUSTINE LINE AND SCATTERED POPS FOR NORTH
CENTRAL FL. LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW PROGGED TO TRAVEL FURTHER INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL
GA ON SAT...WHICH WILL PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 80S FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL.
FOLLOWING A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS..WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED FOR
ALL BUT NORTH CENTRAL FL. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING W/SW FLOW AND
INCREASING SPEED SHEAR...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERNS. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SAT NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION. A BAND OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WITH RAINFALL LIKELY
ENDING BEFORE DAWN ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH
THIS EVENT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE FOR
NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA...WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER T0 AN INCH FOR
NORTH CENTRAL FL. STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DRIVE A COOLER
AIR MASS INTO SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS ON SUN...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 55-6O.
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES ON SUN...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE VA CAPES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF
THE FL AND GA COASTS AT SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY REGION-WIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING OUR
AREA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR NORTHEAST FL AND
SOUTHEAST GA...WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED IN NORTH CENTRAL FL. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON SUN
NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION
RESULTING IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN COASTAL LOCATIONS...WITH A
GRADUAL DECOUPLING EXPECTED INLAND. INLAND LOWS WILL PLUNGE TO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...RANGING TO THE UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.
WIND CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S REGION-WIDE DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON MON.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON MON...WITH
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. A
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL OVER OUR
REGION...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW LATE MARCH CLIMO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA ON MON NIGHT...WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
DRIVING LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND...WITH
MID/UPPER 40S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PROGRESS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY TUES EVENING AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
HIGHS TUES WILL REBOUND TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...EXCEPT MID 60S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. LOWS TUES NIGHT WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 40S INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 50S AT THE COAST.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ON WED AS SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND A DRY AIR MASS ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE TO THE UPPER 70S
INLAND AND LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST.
A TROUGH IMPACTING CALIFORNIA WILL PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON WED NIGHT AND THURS. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE LOCALLY IN
RESPONSE TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURS AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS. LOWS WED
NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S INLAND...RANGING TO NEAR 60 AT THE
COAST. HIGHS THURS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND...WITH MID
70S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS DUE TO AN ACTIVE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT LOW-END MVFR TO OCNL IFR CIGS FOR GNV THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO PREVAILING VFR IN THE AFTN. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS AT GNV STARTING AROUND 16Z-18Z BUT
FOR NOW VCSH IS USED UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES TO INCLUDE TEMPO
GROUP. FOR REST OF TAFS...OCNL MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH 1-2 HOURS LATER PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
TSTMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN GUIDANCE/RADAR FOR
TEMPO GROUPS FOR JAX METRO TAFS. OUTSIDE OF SCT SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE AFTN...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED IN ANY SHOWER AND STORMS. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT AND/OR DISSIPATE AFTER ABOUT 23Z.
&&
.MARINE....PREDOMINATE W/SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
AREA WATERS FRIDAY AND STALL...ONLY TO MOVE BACK NWD FRI NIGHT. A
SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
ENE TO THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE TRAILED BY A COLD
FRONT SW FROM THE SFC LOW...AND WILL PUSH SE THROUGH AREA WATERS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LOOK PROBABLE STARTING SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK WITH OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 81 59 74 58 / 40 50 60 60
SSI 76 61 70 59 / 30 30 50 50
JAX 80 62 74 60 / 50 30 60 60
SGJ 78 62 73 61 / 40 20 60 60
GNV 80 63 79 60 / 60 20 60 50
OCF 81 62 80 61 / 30 20 40 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/NELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
918 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...THEN PASS TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. DID DELAY THE ONSET OF
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY AN HOUR OR SO BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
19/01Z MESOANALYSIS PLACED A WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A MACON GA-
MILLEN GA-ESTILL SC-NORTH CHARLESTON SC-SHULERVILLE SC LINE. THE
FRONT AS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE ISALLOBARIC FALLS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION WILL PERSIST AND
THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BECOMES BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASSENT...MAINLY ALONG THE 295-300K SURFACES.
MID EVENING RADAR COMPOSITES ALREADY SHOW AREAS OF RAIN ALONG THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA WHICH ALIGNS
WELL WITH THE LATEST RAP 295-300K ISENTROPIC PROGS. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOK TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
FORCING AND DEEPEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO OCCUR...BUT
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING.
POPS WILL WILL BE CAPPED AT 30 PERCENT NORTH OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR
TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THIS REASON. HIGHER POPS
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN HOW THE RAIN PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. THERE ARE A NUMBER
OF INDICATIONS THAT THE RAINS WILL END EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING LATER IN THE DAY. POPS
WILL BE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
SOME SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL
AREAS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 50S ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR AREAS LOOK ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH A WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY DURING THE DAY...THEN PASS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE
A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD...AND HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
ALTHOUGH EXPECT MANY AREAS TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BECOME NUMEROUS TO EVEN WIDESPREAD IN
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE
AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM AND 30-40 KT OF MID LEVEL SHEAR WOULD
SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER EXPECT LIMITED SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES UPWARDS OF AROUND 500 J/KG TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH ITS AXIS
PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE
POTENT DISTURBANCE ALOFT LOOKS TO TAP INTO ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER
GIVEN COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE A BIT
COOLER...WITH LOWS AROUND 40.
MONDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE RATHER COOL...WITH HIGHS
ONLY AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY AND COOL EARLY IN THE WEEK...BEFORE WARMING MID TO LATE WEEK
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY...THEN WARM INTO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
THURSDAY. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL START OFF CHILLY...IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S...THEN ALSO SHOW A MODIFYING TREND INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AS RAIN DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT...RAINS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE KCHS
TERMINAL AND ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT KSAV FROM ROUGHLY 06-09Z.
TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...SO WILL ONLY CARRY A TEMPO
GROUP FOR MARGINAL MVFR VSBYS DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS A RISK
FOR TSTMS...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION
RIGHT NOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
TSTMS POSSIBLE. TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT FOR
ANY MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL LIFT
NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ERRATIC BUT GENERALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH THROUGH
LATE NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT WITH SEAS 1-3
FT...MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD EAST TO NORTHEAST SWELL.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
THE COASTAL WATERS AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TURNING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE IMPROVING ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST
OVER THE WATERS MID WEEK BEFORE SETTLING FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN OFFSHORE WINDS THAT EVENTUALLY
BECOME ONSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THUS FAR TODAY...IT HAS BEEN THE SAME OLE STORY WRT GULF COAST
CONVECTION THIS YEAR WITH MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA BECOMING CUTOFF
AT THE EXPENSE OF GULF DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SPC RAP INDICES SHOWING A VERY SHARP
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. BUT DESPITE VALUES CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG ALONG
OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN BORDER...CONVECTION AS MENTIONED REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THIS GRADIENT AND CANT REALLY GET ANY TRANSPORT NORTH OF
THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. INSTEAD...STARTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE ACTUALLY CAPE ZONE AS OPPOSED TO ACTIVITY
ADVECTING IN BUT MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THUS FAR. WITH
TIME THOUGH...SHOULD SEE THIS SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
AREA AS WELL AND WILL CONTINUE LOW END CHANCE POPS WITH LOW END
THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL.
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AND FEEL GUIDANCE IS
UNDERDOING POPS BASED ON GRIDDED FIELD ANALYSIS IN THE
GFS...NAM12...AND THE ECMWF. HAVE PUSHED POP CHANCES FURTHER NORTH
WHILE ALSO INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTH.
INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY BUILD DURING THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HAVE
LIMITED IT TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN LOCATIONS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIKELY POPS.
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH WARM FRONT
MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE TN/GA BORDER. INSTABILITY SHOULD RAMP
UP AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF
NORTH GEORGIA. GIVEN VICINITY OF THE LOW...SHOULDNT HAVE TO WORRY
ABOUT ANOTHER GULF CUTOFF SCENARIO AND SO WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE
ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST AREAS.
DEESE
&&
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS DIVERGE FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THE
SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WITH GFS FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN ECMWF. DURING
THIS TIME...AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT
LAKES AREA...AGAIN GFS IS FURTHER EAST AND STRONGER THAN
ECMWF...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BETTER POPS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LOW IS ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN FLOW BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN END OF SHORT WAVE ROTATES OVER THE
FORECAST ARE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ANY LOW END POPS WILL BE MAINLY OVER
NORTH GEORGIA. THE WORK WEEK IS PUNCTUATED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO SURPRISINGLY THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT
BY WEEKS END. WILL KEEP LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW.
ATWELL
&&
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO
BE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT
BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR ANYTHING LOWER THAN VFR CIGS LOOKS MINIMAL
FOR THIS CYCLE. WE WILL SEE -SHRA CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT WITH INCLUSION IN THE ATL AREA TAFS BEGINNING AT 15Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 21Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA TIMING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 49 69 51 64 / 10 30 60 50
ATLANTA 52 67 54 63 / 20 40 60 50
BLAIRSVILLE 41 65 47 57 / 0 20 40 50
CARTERSVILLE 46 66 51 61 / 20 30 50 50
COLUMBUS 55 70 58 68 / 50 60 60 60
GAINESVILLE 48 66 51 60 / 10 30 50 50
MACON 54 69 57 69 / 40 60 70 70
ROME 45 67 51 59 / 10 20 50 50
PEACHTREE CITY 49 67 52 64 / 30 40 60 50
VIDALIA 58 70 58 72 / 50 60 70 70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
218 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPSTATE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIN HIGH
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH MOISTURE
ALOFT LIMITING NET RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST SPC HRRR STILL INDICATING
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF AGS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA...BUT OVERALL MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO
BE RATHER LIMITED. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOOK
REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT BUT KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM DISPLAYED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT DIMINISHES FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SOME SREF
MEMBERS HAVE MORE MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHWARD. HAVE FORECASTED LOW
POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART FRIDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND INLAND EXTENT
OF MOISTURE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE FORECASTED THE HIGHEST POP
DURING THAT TIME. IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS INDICATE LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN GA. THIS WILL ALLOW
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WESTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR
LESS. WITH DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
847 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE AXIS DROPPING THROUGH
IDAHO PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. BROAD AREA OF LOW STRATUS WITH
POCKETS OF FOG ALSO OCCURRING ALONG INTERSTATE-15 AND SPREADING
EAST TOWARD THE WYOMING BORDER. WEAK SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST CORNER...SLOWLY DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS TOWARD THE UTAH BORDER. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE FEATURE
SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CONSOLIDATED BAND OF SHOWERS LATER TODAY ALONG
COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS THROUGH THE REGION. QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS INCLUDING RAP/HRRR BUT CONSENSUS
STRENGTHENS BAND AS IT DROPS ALONG INTERSTATE-15 CORRIDOR TOWARD
POCATELLO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW UPDATES MADE THIS MORNING FOR
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS BUT GENERAL CHARACTER OF FCST REMAINS THE
SAME WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE LOOKING FOR
ONE MORE STORM TO DROP ALONG THE DIVIDE THROUGH
TONIGHT...TRIGGERING MORE SNOW AND GRAUPEL SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO. WHERE WE`VE HAD MORE PRECIPITATION FROM SHOWERS ACROSS THE
UPPER SNAKE PLAIN INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS SINCE YESTERDAY...FOG
HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL PERSIST FOR A BIT THIS MORNING. THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE SHOWERS MAKE THIS EVENING...AS
THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A CONVERGENCE BAND MOVING DOWN THE
PLAIN. THE GFS SHOWS EVERYTHING DISSIPATING ONCE IT GETS FROM
AMERICAN FALLS NORTHWEST TO CAREY. THE NAM AND THE HRRR ARE
TRENDING FARTHER SOUTHWEST BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH. HOWEVER IT PLAYS
OUT...WHERE WE SEE PRECIPITATION BE PREPARED FOR QUICK BURSTS AND
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL END LATER TODAY. AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
AND EVENTUALLY BRING BACK WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
KEYES
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST AND WE
WILL SEE A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOIST AIR OFF THE PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SNOW LEVELS BEGIN TO FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET ELEVATION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND 5500 FEET BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE VALLEY FLOORS DURING THE
DAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. RS
AVIATION...FOG DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AT KIDA WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
OF CLOUDS ALOFT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. CLOUDS
INCREASE BY 15Z AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KTS AT KIDA BY 17Z. BETWEEN THE 2...THAT SHOULD BE THE LATEST THE
FOG WILL CONTINUE. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN MVFR CEILINGS TO
KPIH...KIDA AND KSUN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL KEEP KBYI VFR. KSUN WILL BE THE MOST
QUESTIONABLE SITE AS IT WILL REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM 17/18Z TO 18/06Z....AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR FRIDAY. RS
HYDROLOGY...WITH WARMER WEATHER RETURNING BY THE WEEKEND WE ARE
LOOKING FOR QUITE A BIT OF SNOWMELT ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIER SNOW
FELL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME STREAM
RISES WILL OCCUR BUT RIGHT NOW WE ARE EXPECTING ANY TYPE OF RIVER
OR STREAM FLOODING. HOWEVER...SOME POCKETS OF SHEET FLOODING
COULD OCCUR. KEYES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
256 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE LOOKING FOR
ONE MORE STORM TO DROP ALONG THE DIVIDE THROUGH
TONIGHT...TRIGGERING MORE SNOW AND GRAUPEL SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO. WHERE WE`VE HAD MORE PRECIPITATION FROM SHOWERS ACROSS THE
UPPER SNAKE PLAIN INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS SINCE YESTERDAY...FOG
HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL PERSIST FOR A BIT THIS MORNING. THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE SHOWERS MAKE THIS EVENING...AS
THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A CONVERGENCE BAND MOVING DOWN THE
PLAIN. THE GFS SHOWS EVERYTHING DISSIPATING ONCE IT GETS FROM
AMERICAN FALLS NORTHWEST TO CAREY. THE NAM AND THE HRRR ARE
TRENDING FARTHER SOUTHWEST BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH. HOWEVER IT PLAYS
OUT...WHERE WE SEE PRECIPITATION BE PREPARED FOR QUICK BURSTS AND
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL END LATER TODAY. AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
AND EVENTUALLY BRING BACK WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
KEYES
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST AND WE
WILL SEE A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOIST AIR OFF THE PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SNOW LEVELS BEGIN TO FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET ELEVATION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND 5500 FEET BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE VALLEY FLOORS DURING THE
DAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. RS
&&
.AVIATION...FOG DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AT KIDA WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
OF CLOUDS ALOFT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. CLOUDS
INCREASE BY 15Z AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KTS AT KIDA BY 17Z. BETWEEN THE 2...THAT SHOULD BE THE LATEST THE
FOG WILL CONTINUE. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN MVFR CEILINGS TO
KPIH...KIDA AND KSUN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL KEEP KBYI VFR. KSUN WILL BE THE MOST
QUESTIONABLE SITE AS IT WILL REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM 17/18Z TO 18/06Z....AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR FRIDAY. RS
&&
.HYDROLOGY...WITH WARMER WEATHER RETURNING BY THE WEEKEND WE ARE
LOOKING FOR QUITE A BIT OF SNOWMELT ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIER SNOW
FELL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME STREAM
RISES WILL OCCUR BUT RIGHT NOW WE ARE EXPECTING ANY TYPE OF RIVER
OR STREAM FLOODING. HOWEVER...SOME POCKETS OF SHEET FLOODING
COULD OCCUR. KEYES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1256 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
1245 PM CDT
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TODAY WITH A SIMILAR COLD
POCKET ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON TO BE LESS THAN THAT SEEN ON THURSDAY. WE STILL
HAVE A SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ROTATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ACT AS A TRIGGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH A SEPERATE WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THAT MAY INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS
MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BORDER BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW
SNEAK IN. AFTER SUNSET ANY REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO THE
WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN WISCONSIN.
KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...
225 AM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WEEK THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
IMPACTING WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND THERE
REMAINS THE CHANCE...AT MOST...TO SEE A LITTLE LIGHT NON-
ACCUMULATING SNOW.
A VERY BROAD UPPER CIRCULATION SPANNING ABOUT 1200 MILES ACROSS IS
CENTERED OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT
SINKS SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE UNDER THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY. THE 00Z DVN RAOB AND WELL
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA HAD IMPRESSIVE-FOR-
MARCH -32C OR COLDER 500MB TEMPERATURES WHICH IMPLIES WE SHOULD BE
UNDER SIMILAR TODAY. HIGH BASED CUMULUS SHOULD POP UP AGAIN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS INDICATION OF A SMALL SHORT WAVE
PASSING AGAIN THIS EVENING. INDICIES THAT QUANTIFY LAPSE RATES AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS...SEEMED TO DO WELL FOR
YESTERDAYS SHOWERS. THESE FORECAST VALUES FROM THE NAM AND RAP ARE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL FAVORABLE FOR COLD POCKET ALOFT
SHOWER GROWTH. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING....MAINLY NORTH AND
CENTRAL...WHICH IS THE AREA CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE FAVORS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD END UP A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DIP A BIT AND ACTUALLY APPROACH 0C BY 00Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT
STILL BRING GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW...MORE OF AN ELONGATED EAST-TO-
WEST UPPER TROUGH...WILL INCH SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MODEL TIMING FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO MORE OF MIDDAY. THIS
WILL IMPACT WHAT HIGHS ARE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR LAKE
ADJACENT AREAS SINCE WINDS WILL TURN OFF THE WATER BEHIND THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY WITH AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THAT FRONT..BUT OF A SHALLOW ENOUGH DEPTH
WHERE WE ARE NOT MENTIONING ANY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
225 AM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD AGAIN. A SHORT WAVE/UPPER LOW THAT IS PART OF
OUR CURRENT TROUGH IS PREDICTED BY THE GFS AND EC TO DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN
WITH JET SUPPORT. IF THIS STRENGTHENING HAPPENS THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION UNDER AND AROUND THE
CENTER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA ARE MORE FAVORED TO
POSSIBLY SEE SOME OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION. PRESENTLY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE -5C TO -8C FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH IF LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE COOL ENOUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW/MIX.
AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME
GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED A LARGE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
EAST COAST WHICH COULD SLOW THE UPSTREAM PROGRESSION OF THE
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE LOOK TO BE UNDER RIDGING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE WARM ADVECTION BEGINS SOMETIME FROM MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT. CPC ACCORDINGLY HAS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST UNDER
HIGHER CHANCES TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 6-10
TIME FRAME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE TAF...WITH TIMING
OF THE SWITCH TO A NE WIND IN EXCESSS OF 10 KT THE OTHER CONCERN
FOR TOMORROW. THERE IS ALSO A LOW SHOWER CHANCE BRIEFLY LATER
TODAY.
THE GUSTY WIND FIELD TODAY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS
THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST WEAKENS AND PULLS FARTHER TO THE EAST.
GUSTS WILL PEAK IN THE 35 KT RANGE AS DEEPER MIXING ENSUES THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS FIELD TO FILL IN AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES...ONE NORTH OF THE
WISCONSIN BORDER...AND ONE JUST WEST OF THE AREA...LOOK TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOOON. INSTABILITY IS WEAKER THAN
YESTERDAY THUS MINIMAL THUNDER CONCERN. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES...AND COVERAGE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION
IN THE TAF. EXPECT THE CUMULUS FIELD TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT BECAUSE IT IS A WEAKER
FRONT ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS SHOULD BE HALTED AS IT APPROACHES
TOMORROW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE WHERE THE FRONT WILL
COME IN UNIMPEDED. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NW LATE
TONIGHT...NORTH AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN NE BY MID MORNING. EXPECT
WINDS ABOVE 10 KT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TIMING IS MEDIUM AT THIS
POINT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LOWER VFR/MVFR CLOUDS WITH THE
FRONT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC HEIGHTS. NE WINDS/CLOUDS THEN
PROGRESS INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CDT
HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS MORNING. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR A
BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND THEN
SHIFT EAST. A COLD FRONT SHIFTS DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE LAKE MONDAY. THE
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD COMES TO AN END AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE LAKE MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AS GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE FIRST LOW. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHEAST AROUND 15-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW TUESDAY AND THEN
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS BEYOND TUESDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
623 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...
225 AM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WEEK THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
IMPACTING WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND THERE
REMAINS THE CHANCE...AT MOST...TO SEE A LITTLE LIGHT NON-
ACCUMULATING SNOW.
A VERY BROAD UPPER CIRCULATION SPANNING ABOUT 1200 MILES ACROSS IS
CENTERED OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT
SINKS SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE UNDER THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY. THE 00Z DVN RAOB AND WELL
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA HAD IMPRESSIVE-FOR-
MARCH -32C OR COLDER 500MB TEMPERATURES WHICH IMPLIES WE SHOULD BE
UNDER SIMILAR TODAY. HIGH BASED CUMULUS SHOULD POP UP AGAIN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS INDICATION OF A SMALL SHORT WAVE
PASSING AGAIN THIS EVENING. INDICIES THAT QUANTIFY LAPSE RATES AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS...SEEMED TO DO WELL FOR
YESTERDAYS SHOWERS. THESE FORECAST VALUES FROM THE NAM AND RAP ARE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL FAVORABLE FOR COLD POCKET ALOFT
SHOWER GROWTH. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING....MAINLY NORTH AND
CENTRAL...WHICH IS THE AREA CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE FAVORS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD END UP A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DIP A BIT AND ACTUALLY APPROACH 0C BY 00Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT
STILL BRING GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW...MORE OF AN ELONGATED EAST-TO-
WEST UPPER TROUGH...WILL INCH SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MODEL TIMING FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO MORE OF MIDDAY. THIS
WILL IMPACT WHAT HIGHS ARE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR LAKE
ADJACENT AREAS SINCE WINDS WILL TURN OFF THE WATER BEHIND THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY WITH AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THAT FRONT..BUT OF A SHALLOW ENOUGH DEPTH
WHERE WE ARE NOT MENTIONING ANY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
225 AM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD AGAIN. A SHORT WAVE/UPPER LOW THAT IS PART OF
OUR CURRENT TROUGH IS PREDICTED BY THE GFS AND EC TO DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN
WITH JET SUPPORT. IF THIS STRENGTHENING HAPPENS THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION UNDER AND AROUND THE
CENTER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA ARE MORE FAVORED TO
POSSIBLY SEE SOME OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION. PRESENTLY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE -5C TO -8C FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH IF LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE COOL ENOUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW/MIX.
AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME
GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED A LARGE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
EAST COAST WHICH COULD SLOW THE UPSTREAM PROGRESSION OF THE
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE LOOK TO BE UNDER RIDGING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE WARM ADVECTION BEGINS SOMETIME FROM MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT. CPC ACCORDINGLY HAS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST UNDER
HIGHER CHANCES TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 6-10
TIME FRAME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN END OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THINKING MOSTLY CLEAR TO SCT CIGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS SPREAD SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WEST
WINDS SHOULD EASILY GUST INTO THE LOW 30 KT RANGE. THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHIFTS SOUTH TODAY...AND
ONLY ONE GUIDANCE MEMBER SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY FORM. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE SOUTH OF
THE IL/WI STATE LINE...BUT IT COULD BE LIKE YESTERDAY WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS DO FORM. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE KEPT THE TAFS DRY.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN VEER TO NORTH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 10
KT. A MVFR DECK MAY MOVE OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS OFF OF THE
LAKE...BUT THINKING IF IT DOES PUSH INLAND...IT WILL BE AFTER 18Z
FRIDAY.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CDT
HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS MORNING. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR A
BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND THEN
SHIFT EAST. A COLD FRONT SHIFTS DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE LAKE MONDAY. THE
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD COMES TO AN END AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE LAKE MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AS GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE FIRST LOW. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHEAST AROUND 15-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW TUESDAY AND THEN
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS BEYOND TUESDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
230 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...
225 AM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WEEK THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
IMPACTING WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND THERE
REMAINS THE CHANCE...AT MOST...TO SEE A LITTLE LIGHT NON-
ACCUMULATING SNOW.
A VERY BROAD UPPER CIRCULATION SPANNING ABOUT 1200 MILES ACROSS IS
CENTERED OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT
SINKS SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE UNDER THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY. THE 00Z DVN RAOB AND WELL
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA HAD IMPRESSIVE-FOR-
MARCH -32C OR COLDER 500MB TEMPERATURES WHICH IMPLIES WE SHOULD BE
UNDER SIMILAR TODAY. HIGH BASED CUMULUS SHOULD POP UP AGAIN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS INDICATION OF A SMALL SHORT WAVE
PASSING AGAIN THIS EVENING. INDICIES THAT QUANTIFY LAPSE RATES AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS...SEEMED TO DO WELL FOR
YESTERDAYS SHOWERS. THESE FORECAST VALUES FROM THE NAM AND RAP ARE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL FAVORABLE FOR COLD POCKET ALOFT
SHOWER GROWTH. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING....MAINLY NORTH AND
CENTRAL...WHICH IS THE AREA CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE FAVORS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD END UP A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DIP A BIT AND ACTUALLY APPROACH 0C BY 00Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT
STILL BRING GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW...MORE OF AN ELONGATED EAST-TO-
WEST UPPER TROUGH...WILL INCH SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MODEL TIMING FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO MORE OF MIDDAY. THIS
WILL IMPACT WHAT HIGHS ARE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR LAKE
ADJACENT AREAS SINCE WINDS WILL TURN OFF THE WATER BEHIND THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY WITH AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THAT FRONT..BUT OF A SHALLOW ENOUGH DEPTH
WHERE WE ARE NOT MENTIONING ANY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
225 AM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD AGAIN. A SHORT WAVE/UPPER LOW THAT IS PART OF
OUR CURRENT TROUGH IS PREDICTED BY THE GFS AND EC TO DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN
WITH JET SUPPORT. IF THIS STRENGTHENING HAPPENS THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION UNDER AND AROUND THE
CENTER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA ARE MORE FAVORED TO
POSSIBLY SEE SOME OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION. PRESENTLY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE -5C TO -8C FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH IF LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE COOL ENOUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW/MIX.
AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME
GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED A LARGE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
EAST COAST WHICH COULD SLOW THE UPSTREAM PROGRESSION OF THE
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE LOOK TO BE UNDER RIDGING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE WARM ADVECTION BEGINS SOMETIME FROM MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT. CPC ACCORDINGLY HAS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST UNDER
HIGHER CHANCES TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 6-10
TIME FRAME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
WHILE THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN
THINKING SHOWERS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE IL/WI STATE LINE. VFR
CIGS SPREAD SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP
TO 30 KT. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTH TODAY...AND ONE GUIDANCE MEMBER SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
COVERAGE...BUT IT COULD BE LIKE YESTERDAY WHERE A FEW SHOWERS DO
FORM. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE KEPT THE TAFS DRY. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN VEER TO NORTH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CDT
HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS MORNING. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR A
BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND THEN
SHIFT EAST. A COLD FRONT SHIFTS DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE LAKE MONDAY. THE
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD COMES TO AN END AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE LAKE MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AS GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE FIRST LOW. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHEAST AROUND 15-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW TUESDAY AND THEN
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS BEYOND TUESDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1250 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR DISSIPATED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
A WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE AVERAGED 8 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
WEAK ELEVATED CAPE...AM EXPECTING MORE INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HAVE PULLED THE 20 TO 30 POPS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST...BUT LATEST HRRR RUNS
INDICATE THERE MAY BE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT WITH THE LOW COVERAGE
EXPECTED...DECIDED TO LEAVE THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH TO
POSSIBLY 40 MPH OR HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH MIGHT BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT A WIND ADVISORY
IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
THE HIGHEST THREAT OF UNCONTROLLED GRASS FIRES WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...RH WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. THE
THREAT ASSUMES THAT TALL GRASSES AND BRUSH HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY
FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL.
FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING NORTH.
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CHANNELED VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN TYPICAL CHANGEABLE MARCH WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS DEPICT A COLD CORE CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE PLENTY OF
STRATUS ALONG WITH SOME OFF AND ON MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. THE
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON SO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WOULD
OCCUR THEN. REGARDLESS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WITH THE
PRECIPITATION RATE BEING LIGHT WE DON`T SEE ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
OTHER THAN A POSSIBLE DUSTING ON THE GRASS MAINLY AT NIGHT. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THIS CLOSED LOW THEN PHASES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...FORMING AN INTENSE NOR`EASTER
RIDING UP THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW GOING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANGEABLE MARCH WEATHER AS A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES SETS UP A ZONAL THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLDER
AIRMASS WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL FORM A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DECENT RAIN OR SNOW EVENT SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE DVN CWA.
HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT WITH REGARD TO THE
TIMING/STRENGTH AND QPF AMOUNTS OF THE SYSTEM ABOUT MID WEEK.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
EXPECT MAINLY VFR LEVEL CELLULAR CU TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON TO SCTRD AND BKN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY AFTER 2-3 PM CDT.
ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLY WILL POP UP
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CU FIELDS WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NEARED/REACHED...BUT SEVERAL OF THE LATEST HIRES MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LESS ACTIVITY/COVERAGE THEN WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON MAYBE PICKING UP ON A SUBSIDENCE STREAK IN
BETWEEN VORTS EMBEDDED IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WILL KEEP
VCSH OUT OF THE TAFS AGAIN FOR ONE MORE TAF CYCLE AND WATCH
DEVELOPMENT TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. WET WINDS OF 10-20 KTS AND
HIGHER GUSTS WILL LOOK TO BECOME LIGHTER NORTHWEST TONIGHT OF 4-8
KTS UNDER CLEARING SKIES. ..12..
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN
ILLINOIS NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA. THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND ON AN ISOLATED BASIS NEAR 3
INCHES...WERE FOCUSED IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS WERE NEAR SATURATION. AS A RESULT....
RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SLOW BUT STEADY
RISES ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT RIVER FLOODING ON THE MISSISSIPPI IS NOT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN
OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...CHANGES IN RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12
HYDROLOGY...UTTECH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
720 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR DISSIPATED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
A WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE AVERAGED 8 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
WEAK ELEVATED CAPE...AM EXPECTING MORE INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HAVE PULLED THE 20 TO 30 POPS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST...BUT LATEST HRRR RUNS
INDICATE THERE MAY BE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT WITH THE LOW COVERAGE
EXPECTED...DECIDED TO LEAVE THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH TO
POSSIBLY 40 MPH OR HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH MIGHT BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT A WIND ADVISORY
IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
THE HIGHEST THREAT OF UNCONTROLLED GRASS FIRES WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...RH WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. THE
THREAT ASSUMES THAT TALL GRASSES AND BRUSH HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY
FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL.
FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING NORTH.
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CHANNELED VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN TYPICAL CHANGEABLE MARCH WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS DEPICT A COLD CORE CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE PLENTY OF
STRATUS ALONG WITH SOME OFF AND ON MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. THE
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON SO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WOULD
OCCUR THEN. REGARDLESS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WITH THE
PRECIPITATION RATE BEING LIGHT WE DON`T SEE ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
OTHER THAN A POSSIBLE DUSTING ON THE GRASS MAINLY AT NIGHT. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THIS CLOSED LOW THEN PHASES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...FORMING AN INTENSE NOR`EASTER
RIDING UP THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW GOING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANGEABLE MARCH WEATHER AS A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES SETS UP A ZONAL THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLDER
AIRMASS WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL FORM A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DECENT RAIN OR SNOW EVENT SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE DVN CWA.
HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT WITH REGARD TO THE
TIMING/STRENGTH AND QPF AMOUNTS OF THE SYSTEM ABOUT MID WEEK.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
A WEST WIND WILL INCREASE AND GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KCID/KDBQ THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN
ILLINOIS NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA. THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND ON AN ISOLATED BASIS NEAR 3
INCHES...WERE FOCUSED IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS WERE NEAR SATURATION. AS A RESULT....
RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SLOW BUT STEADY
RISES ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT RIVER FLOODING ON THE MISSISSIPPI IS NOT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN
OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...CHANGES IN RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
HYDROLOGY...UTTECH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR DISSIPATED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
A WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE AVERAGED 8 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
WEAK ELEVATED CAPE...AM EXPECTING MORE INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HAVE PULLED THE 20 TO 30 POPS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST...BUT LATEST HRRR RUNS
INDICATE THERE MAY BE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT WITH THE LOW COVERAGE
EXPECTED...DECIDED TO LEAVE THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH TO
POSSIBLY 40 MPH OR HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH MIGHT BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT A WIND ADVISORY
IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
THE HIGHEST THREAT OF UNCONTROLLED GRASS FIRES WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...RH WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. THE
THREAT ASSUMES THAT TALL GRASSES AND BRUSH HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY
FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL.
FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING NORTH.
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CHANNELED VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN TYPICAL CHANGEABLE MARCH WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS DEPICT A COLD CORE CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE PLENTY OF
STRATUS ALONG WITH SOME OFF AND ON MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. THE
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON SO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WOULD
OCCUR THEN. REGARDLESS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WITH THE
PRECIPITATION RATE BEING LIGHT WE DON`T SEE ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
OTHER THAN A POSSIBLE DUSTING ON THE GRASS MAINLY AT NIGHT. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THIS CLOSED LOW THEN PHASES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...FORMING AN INTENSE NOR`EASTER
RIDING UP THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW GOING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANGEABLE MARCH WEATHER AS A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES SETS UP A ZONAL THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLDER
AIRMASS WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL FORM A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DECENT RAIN OR SNOW EVENT SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE DVN CWA.
HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT WITH REGARD TO THE
TIMING/STRENGTH AND QPF AMOUNTS OF THE SYSTEM ABOUT MID WEEK.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED...WEAKENING SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING ARE NOT
LIKELY TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS IS ALSO TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THE FORECASTS. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN
12 KTS TOWARD EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN
ILLINOIS NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA. THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND ON AN ISOLATED BASIS NEAR 3
INCHES...WERE FOCUSED IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS WERE NEAR SATURATION. AS A RESULT....
RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SLOW BUT STEADY
RISES ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT RIVER FLOODING ON THE MISSISSIPPI IS NOT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN
OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...CHANGES IN RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
HYDROLOGY...UTTECH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
214 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON RAP UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA.
THE FIRST IS NEAR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
WITH SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. SEVERAL
WEAK BANDS OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF OUR CWA.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
AT LEAST A LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS COMBINING WITH EAST-NORTHEAST MOIST FLOW NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. POPS/TIMING WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
NOW MENTIONED ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS
STILL INDICATION FROM SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE OF A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CSI WITH NEAR NEUTRAL
THETA E LAPSE RATES WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL MORE
FOCUSED/INTENSE SNOW BANDS TO FORM. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING (OR WHERE) AND I LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE IDEA OF LESS
INSTABILITY/BROADER LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE.
TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS PRECIP WINDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES EASTWARD AND FRONTOGENESIS TRANSITIONS OUT OF OUR CWA.
REGARDING PRECIP TYPE...MOISTURE PROFILES STILL APPEAR TO BE
PROBLEMATIC IN OUR EASTERN CWA...WITH WET BULB SURFACE TEMPS IN THE
33-35F RANGE. THIS COULD MEAN THAT LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST (WHERE THE
STRONGER QPF SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE IS) WOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OR JUST RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON PRECIP OCCURRENCE WITH HIGHS LINGERING NEAR WET BULB
TEMPS UNLESS PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR CLEARING WOULD BE IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS THAT
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MAINLY
SNOW. THE OTHER COMPLICATION WILL BE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
WHICH COULD EAT INTO ANY POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS (BARRING HEAVIER
SNOW RATES). IN ANY CASE IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF OUR CWA SHOULD SEE
1-2" OF SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN NW
KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO...AND LESS IN SW NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TRI STATE
REGION WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST...COINCIDING WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN ROCKIES...THAT WILL SHIFT SURFACE FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO
MORE SOUTHERLY BY 06Z SATURDAY...THUS ENDING UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM 06Z SATURDAY ONWARD WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FOR NEXT MONDAY ON THRU TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH BUILDING H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS IS GOING TO
CREATE DOWNSLOPE MIDLEVEL FLOW THAT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. H5 RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST FAIRLY PROGRESSIVELY BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE PLAINS REGION SEEING A SHORTWAVE AFFECT
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...MOVING ESE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS SHIFTING UPPER
LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THE RESULT WILL BE LESS QPF FOR THE
CWA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
FOR TEMPS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BEHIND
DISSIPATING SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THRU THE DAY. NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS...WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS...ONLY TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BACK TO THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER.
FOR PRECIPITATION...LINGERING -SW ON FRIDAY NIGHT COULD GIVE EASTERN
COLORADO VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUM LESS THAN AN INCH. SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MIDWEEK WILL BRING A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ONLY UP TO A
POTENTIAL 0.10" QPF...INCLUDING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW.
FOR WINDS/RH...POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO INCREASE NEAR
20MPH SATURDAY BUT SHOULD TIL SUNDAY. MONDAY/TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS REACHING 10-20 MPH W/ SOME LOCALES REACHING HIGHER FOR BRIEF
PERIODS...ALONG WITH LOW RH READINGS MONDAY/TUESDAY NEAR 15-20
PERCENT...COULD CREATE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY COULD HAVE AREA SEEING GUSTS NEAR 30+
MPH WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS IMPACT OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW TO BOTH TERMINALS. CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS
IFR CONDITIONS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW WHICH SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. LIFR CONDITIONS (CIGS 300-400 KFT) ARE POSSIBLE AT KGLD
WHERE A MORE INTENSE/MODERATE BAND OF SNOW COULD SET UP AND LINGER
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. I TRENDED TAFS IN THIS
DIRECTION. THERE IS ALSO STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NW WINDS AT KGLD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON RAP UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA. THE
FIRST IS NEAR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS
IN PLACE NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH SURFACE TROUGH
CENTERED NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. SEVERAL WEAK BANDS OF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF OUR CWA.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
AT LEAST A LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS COMBINING WITH EAST-NORTHEAST MOIST FLOW NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. POPS/TIMING WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
NOW MENTIONED ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS
STILL INDICATION FROM SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE OF A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CSI WITH NEAR NEUTRAL
THETA E LAPSE RATES WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL MORE
FOCUSED/INTENSE SNOW BANDS TO FORM. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING (OR WHERE) AND I LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE IDEA OF LESS
INSTABILITY/BROADER LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE.
TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS PRECIP WINDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES EASTWARD AND FRONTOGENESIS TRANSITIONS OUT OF OUR CWA.
REGARDING PRECIP TYPE...MOISTURE PROFILES STILL APPEAR TO BE
PROBLEMATIC IN OUR EASTERN CWA...WITH WET BULB SURFACE TEMPS IN THE
33-35F RANGE. THIS COULD MEAN THAT LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST (WHERE THE
STRONGER QPF SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE IS) WOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OR JUST RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
DEPENDED ON PRECIP OCCURRENCE WITH HIGHS LINGERING NEAR WET BULB
TEMPS UNLESS PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR CLEARING WOULD BE IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS THAT
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MAINLY
SNOW AS LONG AS IT IS PRECIPITATING. THE OTHER COMPLICATION WILL BE
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD EAT INTO ANY POTENTIAL SNOW
TOTALS (BARRING HEAVIER SNOW RATES). IN ANY CASE IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH
OF OUR CWA SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN NW KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO...AND LESS IN SW NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TRI STATE
REGION WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST...COINCIDING WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN ROCKIES...THAT WILL SHIFT SURFACE FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO
MORE SOUTHERLY BY 06Z SATURDAY...THUS ENDING UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM 06Z SATURDAY ONWARD WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FOR NEXT MONDAY ON THRU TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH BUILDING H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS IS GOING TO
CREATE DOWNSLOPE MIDLEVEL FLOW THAT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. H5 RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST FAIRLY PROGRESSIVELY BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE PLAINS REGION SEEING A SHORTWAVE AFFECT
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...MOVING ESE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS SHIFTING UPPER
LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THE RESULT WILL BE LESS QPF FOR THE
CWA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
FOR TEMPS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BEHIND
DISSIPATING SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THRU THE DAY. NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS...WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS...ONLY TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BACK TO THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER.
FOR PRECIPITATION...LINGERING -SW ON FRIDAY NIGHT COULD GIVE EASTERN
COLORADO VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUM LESS THAN AN INCH. SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MIDWEEK WILL BRING A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ONLY UP TO A
POTENTIAL 0.10" QPF...INCLUDING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW.
FOR WINDS/RH...POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO INCREASE NEAR
20MPH SATURDAY BUT SHOULD TIL SUNDAY. MONDAY/TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS REACHING 10-20 MPH W/ SOME LOCALES REACHING HIGHER FOR BRIEF
PERIODS...ALONG WITH LOW RH READINGS MONDAY/TUESDAY NEAR 15-20
PERCENT...COULD CREATE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY COULD HAVE AREA SEEING GUSTS NEAR 30+
MPH WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS IMPACT OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW TO BOTH TERMINALS. CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS
IFR CONDITIONS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW WHICH SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. LIFR CONDITIONS (CIGS 300-400 KFT) ARE POSSIBLE AT KGLD
WHERE A MORE INTENSE/MODERATE BAND OF SNOW COULD SET UP AND LINGER
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. I TRENDED TAFS IN THIS
DIRECTION. THERE IS ALSO STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NW WINDS AT KGLD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1104 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING AS THE RH VALUES ARE INCREASING AND
WIND SPEEDS ARE DECREASING AS SUNSET APPROACHES THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS NW FLOW EXTENDING FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK
NORTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE CU AND
A FEW SPRINKLES NEAR OUR CWA. DUE TO A SUB CLOUD LAYER OF TD
DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 20-30F THROUGH 10 KFT AGL THIS HAS MAINLY
BEEN VIRGA. IF WE WERE TO SEE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPDRAFT FORM WE
COULD SEE EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES AID PRECIP REACHING
GROUND...POSSIBLY AS A FEW SNOW FLAKES. I KEPT SPRINKLE MENTION
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HELP STABILIZE
CONDITIONS AND PUT AN END TO ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY MEASURABLE IS LOW DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY LAYER.
TONIGHT...LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT COULD INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS COLD ENOUGH
THAT WITH LIGHT WINDS LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS OUR CWA.
IF WE WEE MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
TEENS.
THURSDAY...MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER BELOW
700MB/10KFT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL. STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT WE SHOULD HAVE
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LIMITING
VERTICAL UPDRAFTS. I LEFT SPRINKLE MENTION OUT AND KEPT POPS SILENT.
DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORTS GOOD MIXING
TOMORROW...HOWEVER AS LEE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THE AIR MASS MAY
NOT SEE AS MUCH OF A RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE WILL PROBABLY
SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S (SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY). WINDS ALOFT AREA ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN...SO DESPITE GOOD MIXING WE LIKELY WONT SEE RFW CONDITIONS
DESPITE RH VALUES DROPPING TO 15 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
UPPER SYSTEM THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THEN TRACK EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND.
A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA THU-FRI AS THE UPPER LOW GETS MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE N
PLAINS. A 95 KT JET STREAK WILL BE ORIENTED FROM WESTERN MT TO
NORTHERN CO INTO NORTHERN KANSAS WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE A 12-18
HOUR PERIOD OF UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS AN INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY EVENING...GRADUALLY
MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW AS IT OVERSPREADS NORTHERN KANSAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW. AT THIS TIME THE THINKING IS
INITIAL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
ACCUMULATING GIVEN AVERAGE SOIL TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 40S AND
LIGHTER SNOW RATES...BUT AS HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES OCCUR
FRIDAY MORNING THE FORECAST REFLECTS ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S IN
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK TO MOVE OUT WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY RECOVERING TO THE MIDDLE 40S AND UP TO
AROUND 60 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z AS A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH BREAKS FREE OF THE FRONT RANGE OF NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND COLDER AIR THAT WILL
BRING A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION AFTER 00Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1006 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
CLOUDS AND VIRGA HAVE BEGUN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME
VALLEY TEMPS DROPPING OFF INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS.
BUT AS THE THICKER CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD MODERATE. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ALL OF THE ECHOES
CURRENTLY ON RADAR IS STILL VIRGA WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
RANGING FROM 10 DEGREES IN DEEP VALLEYS UP TO 30 DEGREES ON
RIDGES. THAT BEING SAID...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
WEST AROUND 04Z WHICH IS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ALSO REFRESHED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
SOME SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE. THE HRRR DOESN/T HAVE A GREAT HOLD ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE NAM12 WHEN REFRESHING THE POPS. ALSO
DID A QUICK REFRESH ON HOURLY TEMPS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER DRY...AND PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE ONGOING CLEAR SKIES...VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE HOLDING STEADY
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. BEST FORCING WILL LIKELY SLIDE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH
THE SYSTEM TO YIELD WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
HIGHER MET/MAV POP NUMBERS...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL.
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT HEAVY AS IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO
SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO START MEASURING GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WITH COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY EARLY TOMORROW. THIS...COMBINED WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S
TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR
NOTHING AT ALL BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS
TEMPERATURES START TO FALL SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...BUT NO FROST AS CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY
SUNDAY MORNING...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE EXITING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THAT SAID...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALL FOR SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS WARMING UP THROUGH THE DAY
EARLY...EXPECT THERE TO BE LESS OF A SNOW POSSIBILITY. IN FACT
ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AFTER THE
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP
OVER THE REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND NEARLY INTO
MIDWEEK. WITH THE CLEARING AND DRY PERIOD...MONDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP IN THE
VALLEYS.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH NUDGES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
TO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND EVEN
NEAR 70 BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WARM AND MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR SETS UP OVER THE OH VALLEY. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE
THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST A BIT EARLIER. AS FOR CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. DUE TO THIS...REMAINED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND
MODEL. AFTER THE COOL DOWN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A STRONG WARMING
PERIOD WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AND LOWER CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. BY TOMORROW
MORNING WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS. ALONG WITH
THE LOWER CIGS...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE SEEN AND COULD
PROVIDE SOME LIGHT FOG/BR AT TIMES. A DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALLOWING
PRECIP TO CUT OFF AT KLOZ AND KSME AND THE CIGS TO TEMPORARILY
IMPROVE. ELSEWHERE...VCSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JVM/HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
753 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
SOME SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE. THE HRRR DOESN/T HAVE A GREAT HOLD ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE NAM12 WHEN REFRESHING THE POPS. ALSO
DID A QUICK REFRESH ON HOURLY TEMPS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER DRY...AND PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE ONGOING CLEAR SKIES...VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE HOLDING STEADY
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. BEST FORCING WILL LIKELY SLIDE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH
THE SYSTEM TO YIELD WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
HIGHER MET/MAV POP NUMBERS...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL.
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT HEAVY AS IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO
SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO START MEASURING GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WITH COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY EARLY TOMORROW. THIS...COMBINED WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S
TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR
NOTHING AT ALL BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS
TEMPERATURES START TO FALL SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...BUT NO FROST AS CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY
SUNDAY MORNING...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE EXITING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THAT SAID...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALL FOR SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS WARMING UP THROUGH THE DAY
EARLY...EXPECT THERE TO BE LESS OF A SNOW POSSIBILITY. IN FACT
ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AFTER THE
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP
OVER THE REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND NEARLY INTO
MIDWEEK. WITH THE CLEARING AND DRY PERIOD...MONDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP IN THE
VALLEYS.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH NUDGES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
TO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND EVEN
NEAR 70 BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WARM AND MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR SETS UP OVER THE OH VALLEY. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE
THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST A BIT EARLIER. AS FOR CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. DUE TO THIS...REMAINED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND
MODEL. AFTER THE COOL DOWN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A STRONG WARMING
PERIOD WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AND LOWER CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. BY TOMORROW
MORNING WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS. ALONG WITH
THE LOWER CIGS...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE SEEN AND COULD
PROVIDE SOME LIGHT FOG/BR AT TIMES. A DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALLOWING
PRECIP TO CUT OFF AT KLOZ AND KSME AND THE CIGS TO TEMPORARILY
IMPROVE. ELSEWHERE...VCSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JVM/HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
653 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
SOME SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE. THE HRRR DOESN/T HAVE A GREAT HOLD ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE NAM12 WHEN REFRESHING THE POPS. ALSO
DID A QUICK REFRESH ON HOURLY TEMPS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER DRY...AND PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE ONGOING CLEAR SKIES...VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE HOLDING STEADY
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. BEST FORCING WILL LIKELY SLIDE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH
THE SYSTEM TO YIELD WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
HIGHER MET/MAV POP NUMBERS...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL.
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT HEAVY AS IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO
SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO START MEASURING GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WITH COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY EARLY TOMORROW. THIS...COMBINED WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S
TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR
NOTHING AT ALL BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS
TEMPERATURES START TO FALL SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...BUT NO FROST AS CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY
SUNDAY MORNING...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE EXITING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THAT SAID...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALL FOR SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS WARMING UP THROUGH THE DAY
EARLY...EXPECT THERE TO BE LESS OF A SNOW POSSIBILITY. IN FACT
ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AFTER THE
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP
OVER THE REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND NEARLY INTO
MIDWEEK. WITH THE CLEARING AND DRY PERIOD...MONDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP IN THE
VALLEYS.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH NUDGES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
TO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND EVEN
NEAR 70 BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WARM AND MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR SETS UP OVER THE OH VALLEY. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE
THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST A BIT EARLIER. AS FOR CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. DUE TO THIS...REMAINED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND
MODEL. AFTER THE COOL DOWN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A STRONG WARMING
PERIOD WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AND LOWER CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM SPREADS INTO THE REGION. BY TOMORROW
MORNING WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS. ALONG WITH
THE LOWER CIGS...A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN AND COULD
PROVIDE SOME LIGHT FOG AT TIMES. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
A SIMILAR NIGHT TO THE PAST COUPLE LOOKS ON TAP AS CEILINGS LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES...AS MOISTURE POOLS BELOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION. LATEST
MODEL RUNS NOT SO BULLISH ON SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NWRN
GULF OVERNIGHT SO VCSH MENTION WAS REMOVED PRIOR TO SUNRISE...
ALTHOUGH POPS LINGER LATER THURSDAY THANKS TO COPIOUS
MOISTURE/DAYTIME HEATING/MEANDERING SFC FRONT. EARLY PROGS
INDICATE LOW CLOUDS RETURNING FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW...
ALTHOUGH HAVE CAPPED CONDITIONS AT LOW MVFR FOR NOW.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
UPDATE...EAST TO WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT HAS NOW RETREATED TO
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM JUST NORTH
OF LUFKIN TO JUST NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA. RADAR ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP
AT THIS TIME. NEW NAM AND LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY DOWN
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AREA-WIDE. WITH FRONT NOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HAVE INCLUDED OUR CENTRAL LOUISIANA/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS COUNTIES AND PARISHES WITH PATCHY FOG.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE MIDDLE UNITED
STATES WITH A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OVER
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WAS USHERING IN
SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO INTO
THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAD STALLED LATE THIS MORNING
AND WAS NOW RETROGRADING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS COULD BE SEEN COVERING MUCH
OF THE COASTAL REGION WHILE THINNING OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. WHILE
NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
THE RADAR WAS CLEAR THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GYRATE BACK
AND FORTH. SO...FIRST OFF EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. DO NOT EXPECT
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT. WE COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LIKE WE SAW THIS MORNING IN LAFAYETTE AND
PARTS OF CALCASIEU PARISH AGAIN AFTER 06Z. DEPENDING ON
WINDS...LOCATION OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS...WILL BE MONITORING FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO ANYTHING BUT
PATCHY FOG AT THE MOMENT. GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS GOING INSANE ON POPS
ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. I WILL BE HONEST...I`M NOT SEEING
YET UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT GUIDANCE POPS. HOWEVER...MY
MOM DID NOT RAISE NO FOOL EITHER...I WILL HEDGE UP IN CASE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS OFF THE SURFACE UP TO 850 MB WHICH MAY
ENHANCE LIFT RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. I ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS AREA EITHER. THE NAM HAD A 700MB DECENT VORT
LOBE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GYRATE THURSDAY AND WITH MORE
IMPULSED SLIDING IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WE COULD SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING BY ON SATURDAY DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN
PROBABLY TAPERING OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LOWER
WITH THIS NEXT FRONT AND THEREFORE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY
ADDITIONAL AGGRAVATION OF THE CURRENT FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY AND
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY
MORNING IN THE 40S AND PERHAPS UPPER 30`S IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
STABLE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK.
MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DAILY WITH RAIN CHANCES IMPROVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ON
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 57 75 59 73 / 20 40 40 50
LCH 64 78 64 76 / 20 40 40 50
LFT 64 78 64 76 / 20 50 50 50
BPT 65 78 65 77 / 20 40 40 50
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
ONLY MINOR POP CHANGES FOR THIS AFTN AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO
FALL OVER THE SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WEBCAMS THOUGH INDICATE
SNOW IS LIGHT AND THIS NEW SNOW IS MELTING AS TEMPS ARE AROUND
32F.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT MOVING AROUND THE BACK OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PUSHED THE LIGHT SNOW
BAND FURTHER WEST TO THE LANGDON TO GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS
AREA. OBS SHOW THAT SNOW HAS ENDED IN THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREA SO
WILL LET HEADLINES GO. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SNOW
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REASONABLE
GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE VORT MAX. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
HAVE SOME VERY NARROW BANDS OF HIGHER QPF. THE EPV AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE
SNOW...BUT THE RAP AT LEAST SHOWS SOME SMALL AREAS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS POPPING UP AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH
CHANCE POPS GOING...AND BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT INTO THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE IN SOME SPOTS. PROBABLY DO NOT HAVE THE EXACT
LOCATIONS RIGHT IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL TALK ABOUT ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE OTHER PRODUCTS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE UPPER LOWS
WOBBLING ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH
CONTINUING. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT TIMING WITH VORTS
MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SO JUST HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THINK THAT AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. LOWERED TONIGHTS LOWS INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW...WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD BUT THE UPPER LOWS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LEAVE OUR
REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA WHILE THE LONG TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA.
LONG RIDGE IN THE WEST WEAKENS WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
RETROGRADES A BIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.
THE GFS WAS THE FASTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ON
TUE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN AND TUE. A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER
TEMPS FOR MON AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS KFAR/KDVL WHILE IT ENDS
AT KGFK. LOOKING FOR MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE FOR FIRST 12 HOURS OF
PERIOD WITH SOME OVERNIGHT IFR RETURNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENT NNW TO NNE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AT ALL SITES
BY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1005 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
IMPRESSIVE 500 MB VORT MOVED WEST EARLY THIS MORNING FROM DULUTH
AREA DUE WEST TOWARD GRAND FORKS AND IS NOW BTWN GFK/DVL. THIS
SYSTEM IS QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECASTED YESTERDAY AND HENCE
A STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER ERN ND/RRV. MOST AREAS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE SO KEPT THAT
IDEA FROM PREV FCST. SNOW IS ENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THIS
SNOW ENDING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE VORT EVENTUALLY
SHIFTS SOUTH. CURRENT FCST IN FINE SHAPE SO ONLY SMALL CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS...BUT KEPT THE GENERAL IDEA OF SNOW
PUSHING SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. SOME NARROW
BANDING OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WITH ND AND MN DOT MAPS INDICATING SNOW COVERED ROADS
PUT OUT AN SPS FOR SNOW TO ALERT THOSE ON THE MORNING COMMUTE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT MOVING AROUND THE BACK OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PUSHED THE LIGHT SNOW
BAND FURTHER WEST TO THE LANGDON TO GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS
AREA. OBS SHOW THAT SNOW HAS ENDED IN THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREA SO
WILL LET HEADLINES GO. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SNOW
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REASONABLE
GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE VORT MAX. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
HAVE SOME VERY NARROW BANDS OF HIGHER QPF. THE EPV AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE
SNOW...BUT THE RAP AT LEAST SHOWS SOME SMALL AREAS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS POPPING UP AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH
CHANCE POPS GOING...AND BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT INTO THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE IN SOME SPOTS. PROBABLY DO NOT HAVE THE EXACT
LOCATIONS RIGHT IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL TALK ABOUT ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE OTHER PRODUCTS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE UPPER LOWS
WOBBLING ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH
CONTINUING. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT TIMING WITH VORTS
MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SO JUST HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THINK THAT AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. LOWERED TONIGHTS LOWS INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW...WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD BUT THE UPPER LOWS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LEAVE OUR
REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA WHILE THE LONG TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA.
LONG RIDGE IN THE WEST WEAKENS WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
RETROGRADES A BIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.
THE GFS WAS THE FASTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ON
TUE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN AND TUE. A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER
TEMPS FOR MON AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
MOST CIGS ARE MVFR TO IFR...WITH ALL TAF SITES REPORTING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OF VARIOUS VISIBILITIES. KFAR HAS BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES...WITH THE OTHER SITES RANGING FROM 2 TO 5SM. HARD TO PIN
DOWN EXACT VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING IN AND OUT
OVER TAF SITES...BUT HAVE SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR HEAVIER BANDS AT
KFAR AND KDVL WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WILL HANG AROUND LONGER
AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THINK THERE
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO JUST FLURRIES AND VIS OVER
6SM...STARTING IN THE NORTHEASTERN TAF SITES...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF COMPLETELY BY LATE IN THE DAY. CIGS WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT TO
THE HIGHER END OF MVFR...BUT THINK AT LEAST SOME TAF SITES WILL GO
BACK DOWN TO IFR LATER TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS THIS MORNING...AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A WHILE
LONGER BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS...BUT KEPT THE GENERAL IDEA OF SNOW
PUSHING SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. SOME NARROW
BANDING OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WITH ND AND MN DOT MAPS INDICATING SNOW COVERED ROADS
PUT OUT AN SPS FOR SNOW TO ALERT THOSE ON THE MORNING COMMUTE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT MOVING AROUND THE BACK OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PUSHED THE LIGHT SNOW
BAND FURTHER WEST TO THE LANGDON TO GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS
AREA. OBS SHOW THAT SNOW HAS ENDED IN THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREA SO
WILL LET HEADLINES GO. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SNOW
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REASONABLE
GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE VORT MAX. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
HAVE SOME VERY NARROW BANDS OF HIGHER QPF. THE EPV AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE
SNOW...BUT THE RAP AT LEAST SHOWS SOME SMALL AREAS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS POPPING UP AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH
CHANCE POPS GOING...AND BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT INTO THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE IN SOME SPOTS. PROBABLY DO NOT HAVE THE EXACT
LOCATIONS RIGHT IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL TALK ABOUT ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE OTHER PRODUCTS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE UPPER LOWS
WOBBLING ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH
CONTINUING. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT TIMING WITH VORTS
MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SO JUST HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THINK THAT AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. LOWERED TONIGHTS LOWS INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW...WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD BUT THE UPPER LOWS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LEAVE OUR
REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA WHILE THE LONG TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA.
LONG RIDGE IN THE WEST WEAKENS WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
RETROGRADES A BIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.
THE GFS WAS THE FASTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ON
TUE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN AND TUE. A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER
TEMPS FOR MON AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
MOST CIGS ARE MVFR TO IFR...WITH ALL TAF SITES REPORTING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OF VARIOUS VISIBILITIES. KFAR HAS BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES...WITH THE OTHER SITES RANGING FROM 2 TO 5SM. HARD TO PIN
DOWN EXACT VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING IN AND OUT
OVER TAF SITES...BUT HAVE SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR HEAVIER BANDS AT
KFAR AND KDVL WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WILL HANG AROUND LONGER
AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THINK THERE
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO JUST FLURRIES AND VIS OVER
6SM...STARTING IN THE NORTHEASTERN TAF SITES...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF COMPLETELY BY LATE IN THE DAY. CIGS WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT TO
THE HIGHER END OF MVFR...BUT THINK AT LEAST SOME TAF SITES WILL GO
BACK DOWN TO IFR LATER TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS THIS MORNING...AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A WHILE
LONGER BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT MOVING AROUND THE BACK OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PUSHED THE LIGHT SNOW
BAND FURTHER WEST TO THE LANGDON TO GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS
AREA. OBS SHOW THAT SNOW HAS ENDED IN THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREA SO
WILL LET HEADLINES GO. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SNOW
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REASONABLE
GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE VORT MAX. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
HAVE SOME VERY NARROW BANDS OF HIGHER QPF. THE EPV AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE
SNOW...BUT THE RAP AT LEAST SHOWS SOME SMALL AREAS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS POPPING UP AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH
CHANCE POPS GOING...AND BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT INTO THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE IN SOME SPOTS. PROBABLY DO NOT HAVE THE EXACT
LOCATIONS RIGHT IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL TALK ABOUT ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE OTHER PRODUCTS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE UPPER LOWS
WOBBLING ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH
CONTINUING. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT TIMING WITH VORTS
MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SO JUST HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THINK THAT AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. LOWERED TONIGHTS LOWS INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW...WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD BUT THE UPPER LOWS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LEAVE OUR
REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA WHILE THE LONG TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA.
LONG RIDGE IN THE WEST WEAKENS WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
RETROGRADES A BIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.
THE GFS WAS THE FASTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ON
TUE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN AND TUE. A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER
TEMPS FOR MON AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
MAIN ISSUE THRU MID MORNING WILL BE ANY LIGHT PCPN. NOT EXPECTING
TOO MUCH RESTRICTION TO VSBY AS THE LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW BAND
QUICKLY CHANGES TO JUST LIGHT SNOW. NOT EXPECTING IT TO GET HEAVY
ENOUGH TO LOWER VSBYS TOO MUCH. MOST OF THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD END BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AFTER THIS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION. HAVE STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF MVFR CEILINGS HANGING AROUND
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ005-
017.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ006-009.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOST AREAS THIS TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AT KSPS/KLAW. A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER... CHANCES ARE
CURRENTLY TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A QPF SIGNAL OVER NORTH TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS DEEPER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED THIS
POSSIBILITY AS WELL. THUS...KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT SOUTH OF A QUANAH TEXAS TO
CHICKASHA TO MADILL LINE. NOT COMPLETELY SURE STORMS WILL OCCUR
DUE TO SOME CAPPING...THOUGH THERE SEEMS TO BE A STRONG SIGNAL
SOMETHING WILL FORM. EXACT LOCATIONS AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL...MAINLY NICKEL SIZE OR SMALL...MAY
OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO MUCAPE 200-1000 J/KG AND STRONG
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 55-65 KT. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AND
SEEMS TO BE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS
AND CLOSER TO ABILENE AND DALLAS WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE HIGHER WITH MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM NEAR FREEZING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS MOST SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSPS. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OK BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAF AT
THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE IS SET TO RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SETTING US UP FOR
OUR NEXT RAIN EVENT ON FRIDAY. AREAS IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
ALONG THE RED RIVER COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AS EARLY AS
TONIGHT...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WONT FALL UNTIL AN UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES AND
COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THAT AREA BY THEN.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RECOVER ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEAR WATCH
IN REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER. TUESDAY ESPECIALLY...AS A DRYLINE APPEARS
TO SET UP IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...LEAVING RH VALUES POTENTIALLY IN THE
TEENS IN FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING VARIES WIDELY BETWEEN THE MODELS.
MAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 41 68 44 54 / 10 10 10 40
HOBART OK 41 66 44 53 / 10 10 30 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 45 65 48 59 / 20 30 20 50
GAGE OK 30 67 36 49 / 0 0 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 34 67 38 53 / 0 0 0 40
DURANT OK 46 68 50 62 / 10 20 20 50
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/25/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
818 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR UPDATES MADE THIS EVENING...
FIRST...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ARRIVING SLIGHTLY MORE
QUICKLY...LIKELY DRIVEN BY PRECIPITATION THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER FALLING INTO A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. THIS COOLED
PREFRONTAL TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
ARRIVING SHORTLY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE HRRR IS GROSSLY
OVERDONE. OTHERWISE...COOLER CONDITIONS ARE STILL ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND.
TVT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO
MIDLAND TEXAS. A SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM NEAR MIDLAND TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF SHOWERS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. AROUND 6 PM...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.
LINGERING SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE MAY SET OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-30 POPS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP
ANY FROST FROM DEVELOPING.
AN UPPER TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
WEST TENNESSEE. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR SUNDAY
EVENING. AFTER A COOL DAY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR. THE ONE CAVEAT MAY BE
IF THE WINDS STAY UP...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. A FROST OR FREEZE COULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUCH AN EXTENDED WARM PERIOD...NEWLY BLOOMED
VEGETATION MAY BE IMPACTED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
KRM
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD EXIT THE TUP AREA BY 01Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING
AREAWIDE THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. MVFR POST FRONTAL CIGS OVER
MO WILL WORK DOWN INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT... ALONG
WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS. CIGS SHOULD TRANSITION TO VFR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS...AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
618 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF BUSH IAH BUT MAY AFFECT
BOTH KSGR AND KHOU. CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG NW-N WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO BREAK BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FEATURES OF NOTE AT 3 PM WERE A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...A STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR AND EAST OF HOUSTON COUNTY...AND A COLD FRONT NEAR A LINE
FROM TERRELL TO NEAR WACO. THE AIRMASS OVER SE TX HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CAPPED ALL DAY...HOWEVER DO EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING AS THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AND THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. SOME HAVE ALREADY STARTED OVER TRINITY
AND POLK COUNTIES NEAR WHERE THE GRAVITY WAVE WAS INTERACTING WITH
THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT.
THE MODELS DIFFERED A BIT ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE DONE WELL SO FAR AND
BOTH HAVE LESS COVERAGE THAN WAS EARLIER FORECAST. THE NAM12...
ARW...NMM...AND TO AN EXTENT THE RAP13...ALSO AGREE WITH LESS
COVERAGE. THE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFLUENT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE SHEARING OUT SYSTEM IN MEXICO. DO
EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO OCCUR AT LEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BECAUSE
OF THIS...DECIDED TO GO WITH NO MORE THAN 50 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST SHOULD OCCUR AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SE
TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT LEAST ALONG
THE COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
40
MARINE...
THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM...OR ONCE THE
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT ARRIVE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
POSTED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. GUSTS TO 30KT ARE A
POSSIBILITY SAT MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND SWING BACK ONSHORE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND SEAS THEN BUILD
INTO MIDWEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. 47
FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER
MSUNNY SKIES. RH`S SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 27-32% RANGE WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE MET, BUT MAY BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 62 42 63 40 / 50 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 57 66 46 66 41 / 50 20 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 62 68 53 65 51 / 60 30 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...WITH
CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WE EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING 06Z-07Z AND GIVEN THE LATEST
MODEL AGREEMENT...WE HAVE INCLUDED SOME TEMPO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS
BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS IN STORE TOMORROW...BUT IFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL IN STORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS
REMAIN THICK...BUT WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AFTER 19Z. WE/LL KEEP
MVFR CONDITIONS INTACT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. AT KDRT...VFR SKIES
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
AROUND 04Z. CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO IFR AFTER 10Z...WITH CIGS
LIFTING INTO MVFR AFTER 17Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SHALLOW TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THE FLOW ACROSS TEXAS WAS GENERALLY WESTERLY.
AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY DURING
THIS PERIOD AND PRODUCE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD WEST AND INCREASE
THURSDAY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP IS
MOSTLY TO COME AS SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND FRIDAY AND THEN BECOME
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY UNTIL
AROUND NOON SATURDAY. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A DRY PATTERN FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 76 53 62 45 / 40 30 60 20 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 76 54 63 42 / 40 30 60 20 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 76 56 64 45 / 40 40 60 20 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 60 74 49 60 41 / 30 40 60 20 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 63 77 56 63 49 / 40 40 50 30 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 61 75 51 61 41 / 30 30 60 20 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 64 76 57 66 44 / 40 40 60 20 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 76 55 63 44 / 40 40 60 20 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 77 57 63 44 / 40 40 60 30 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 64 75 57 64 46 / 40 40 60 20 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 77 59 66 48 / 40 40 60 20 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
232 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...RESULTING OF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT THURSDAY...
EXPECTING FAIR WEATHER FOR ST. PATRICKS DAY WITH CONDITIONS QUITE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS RNK 12Z SOUNDING IS QUITE DRY AND
SATELLITE INDICATES JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD BE THOROUGHLY MIXED THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP BRING
SOME GUSTY WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MAIN CONCERN ARE POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH VALUES...
GUSTY WINDS...AND LOWERING FUEL MOISTURE. DO NOT EXPECT TO MEET
RED FLAG CRITERIA SO THE GOING SPSS HIGHLIGHTING THE INCREASED
FIRE DANGER LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE SITUATION.
PREVIOUS AFD...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD AREA OF
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE RNK CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
FALL TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW SAGS SOUTHWARD...FALLING FROM VERY
WARM +16C LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY TO AROUND +5C BY THIS EVENING.
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY SFC WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS COMBINED WITH
NEAR FULL INSOLATION...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AGAIN TODAY.
MOS GUIDANCE VARIED HIGHLY FROM VERY WARM MAV MOS TO RATHER COOL
ECMWF MOS. HAVE LEANED FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY TOWARD THE MAV
MOS. CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A PART IN THIS...BUT OVERALL THINKING
IS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AFTER THE MORNING DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND THE NEXT ONES APPROACHING BOTH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST...WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET.
850MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE 0C EVEN INTO FRI...SO LOW TEMPS FRI
MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...APPROACHING BOTH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...HENCE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAMS...WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP IN MOST AREAS INTO FRI
MORNING AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS A FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WITH ONE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SFC A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF
US. THE MODELS ARE GOING WITH A WEAKER WIND PATTERN FRIDAY BUT STILL
SOMEWHAT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY NORTH ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE. KEEPING HUMIDITY LOW DESPITE SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPS AS THEY MAX OUT FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO 60S.
EAST.
THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AT TIMES ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS FLOW DICTATES DRY
WESTERLIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TO OFF THE SC
COAST. STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF HOW FAST AND DEEP
THE SFC AND UPPER LOW ARE THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AS USUAL IS
HANDLING THIS BETTER IN TERMS OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WHERE THE
00Z NAM IS SIMILAR. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT FOLLOWED THESE
SOLUTIONS CLOSELY. BY DAWN SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE EAST TN/WRN NC MTNS...AND WORKING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TEMP FORECAST SUGGEST SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AT THE ONSET AND POSSIBLY STAYING SNOW AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV SATURDAY. STILL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY...PLUS QPF WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH AND WITH WARM GROUND MAYBE A DUSTING TO HALF INCH ON GRASSY
SFCS...IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST DEEPENS SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A SW FLOW SURGING BACK INTO THE AREA.
SFC FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SFC LOW STRENGTHENING OFF THE NC COAST.
FORECAST SOLUTION SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MTN RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL OVERALL QPF
SUGGESTS LESS THAN ADVISORY AMOUNTS AND WILL KEEP PROBABILITY LOW IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PLACES LIKE THE HOT
SPRINGS/ALLEGHANY MTN RIDGE IN BATH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN GREENBRIER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS MOUNTAIN
LAKE.
LOOK FOR LOWS SAT NIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
TO LOWER TO MID 40S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHOW A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST SOME HIGH BASED CU TO THE NORTH WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE DRY SO NO CIG/VSBY RESTRICTION ISSUES WILL IMPACT AVIATION
CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING
DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. FRIDAY DOES NOT
LOOK AS GUSTY AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED SO ONLY LOW END
GUSTS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE
DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LEADS TO SOUTHERN STREAM COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN LOW CIGS AND RAIN
WITH POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS QUITE LOW EVEN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GOOD 30 DEGREE SPREADS EVEN AT THIS HOUR AT MANY
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF DECOUPLED VALLEYS. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
FAIRLY TIGHT AND RESULT IN GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRRR WIND GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED 20-22KT
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT FUEL MOISTURES FROM THE VARIOUS RAWS SITES...REVEALS
6-8 PERCENT VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...WHERE
THE WINDS ARE HIGHER...UPWARDS OF 9-10 PERCENT ACROSS THE NC
COUNTIES...WHERE MORE RAIN FELL A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. FINALLY RH
VALUES...ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY...AS HAS EVEN BEEN THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THE GFS INITIALIZED WAY TOO MOIST...SO I...AS
WELL AS SPC...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/LOWER NAM
DEWPOINTS. AS A RESULT OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS...SPC HAS OUTLOOKED
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
AN SPS FOR FIRE DANGER WAS ALREADY ISSUED ON THE DAY SHIFT WED IN
COORDINATION WITH THE NORTH CAROLINA FORESTRY SERVICE. GIVEN THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS...ONE WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE WV COUNTIES. AM GOING TO
COORDINATE WITH THE USFS BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL DECISION ON THIS.
WITH NO WETTING OF FUELS AND STILL A CONSIDERATION OF LOW
DEWPOINTS FRIDAY...FIRE WEATHER COULD AGAIN BE A CONCERN.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...AND
WINDS LIGHTER...SO NOT AS DEFINITE AS TODAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS/WP
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...MBS/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1026 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...RESULTING OF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT THURSDAY...
EXPECTING FAIR WEATHER FOR ST. PATRICKS DAY WITH CONDITIONS QUITE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS RNK 12Z SOUNDING IS QUITE DRY AND
SATELLITE INDICATES JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD BE THOROUGHLY MIXED THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP BRING
SOME GUSTY WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MAIN CONCERN ARE POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH VALUES...
GUSTY WINDS...AND LOWERING FUEL MOISTURE. DO NOT EXPECT TO MEET
RED FLAG CRITERIA SO THE GOING SPSS HIGHLIGHTING THE INCREASED
FIRE DANGER LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE SITUATION.
PREVIOUS AFD...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD AREA OF
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE RNK CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
FALL TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW SAGS SOUTHWARD...FALLING FROM VERY
WARM +16C LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY TO AROUND +5C BY THIS EVENING.
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY SFC WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS COMBINED WITH
NEAR FULL INSOLATION...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AGAIN TODAY.
MOS GUIDANCE VARIED HIGHLY FROM VERY WARM MAV MOS TO RATHER COOL
ECMWF MOS. HAVE LEANED FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY TOWARD THE MAV
MOS. CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A PART IN THIS...BUT OVERALL THINKING
IS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AFTER THE MORNING DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND THE NEXT ONES APPROACHING BOTH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST...WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET.
850MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE 0C EVEN INTO FRI...SO LOW TEMPS FRI
MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...APPROACHING BOTH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...HENCE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAMS...WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP IN MOST AREAS INTO FRI
MORNING AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS A FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WITH ONE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SFC A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF
US. THE MODELS ARE GOING WITH A WEAKER WIND PATTERN FRIDAY BUT STILL
SOMEWHAT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY NORTH ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE. KEEPING HUMIDITY LOW DESPITE SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPS AS THEY MAX OUT FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO 60S.
EAST.
THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AT TIMES ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS FLOW DICTATES DRY
WESTERLIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TO OFF THE SC
COAST. STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF HOW FAST AND DEEP
THE SFC AND UPPER LOW ARE THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AS USUAL IS
HANDLING THIS BETTER IN TERMS OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WHERE THE
00Z NAM IS SIMILAR. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT FOLLOWED THESE
SOLUTIONS CLOSELY. BY DAWN SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE EAST TN/WRN NC MTNS...AND WORKING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TEMP FORECAST SUGGEST SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AT THE ONSET AND POSSIBLY STAYING SNOW AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV SATURDAY. STILL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY...PLUS QPF WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH AND WITH WARM GROUND MAYBE A DUSTING TO HALF INCH ON GRASSY
SFCS...IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST DEEPENS SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A SW FLOW SURGING BACK INTO THE AREA.
SFC FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SFC LOW STRENGTHENING OFF THE NC COAST.
FORECAST SOLUTION SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MTN RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL OVERALL QPF
SUGGESTS LESS THAN ADVISORY AMOUNTS AND WILL KEEP PROBABILITY LOW IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PLACES LIKE THE HOT
SPRINGS/ALLEGHANY MTN RIDGE IN BATH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN GREENBRIER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS MOUNTAIN
LAKE.
LOOK FOR LOWS SAT NIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
TO LOWER TO MID 40S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHOW A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND. FOR TODAY...DRY SURFACE AIR WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A GREAT LAKES SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. UPSTREAM NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SEND PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION FROM TIME-TO-TIME...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ALL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA100 AT THIS
POINT THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS...WHICH SHOULD BE
ON THE ORDER OF WHAT WE SAW WED...PERHAPS A TAD STRONGER AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE
TURBULENT MIXING BEGINS AFTER DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR WSW-WNW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS AT MOST TAF SITES. THUS...WE SHOULD
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SHARPLY AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE
EQUALLY AS QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY EVENING AND VEER MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST BETWEEN THE RESIDUAL FRONT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE NEXT BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS
MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST/NW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS.
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
IMPULSE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LEADS TO SOUTHERN STREAM
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN LOW CIGS AND RAIN
WITH POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS QUITE LOW EVEN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GOOD 30 DEGREE SPREADS EVEN AT THIS HOUR AT MANY
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF DECOUPLED VALLEYS. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
FAIRLY TIGHT AND RESULT IN GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRRR WIND GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED 20-22KT
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT FUEL MOISTURES FROM THE VARIOUS RAWS SITES...REVEALS
6-8 PERCENT VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...WHERE
THE WINDS ARE HIGHER...UPWARDS OF 9-10 PERCENT ACROSS THE NC
COUNTIES...WHERE MORE RAIN FELL A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. FINALLY RH
VALUES...ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY...AS HAS EVEN BEEN THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THE GFS INITIALIZED WAY TOO MOIST...SO I...AS
WELL AS SPC...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/LOWER NAM
DEWPOINTS. AS A RESULT OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS...SPC HAS OUTLOOKED
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
AN SPS FOR FIRE DANGER WAS ALREADY ISSUED ON THE DAY SHIFT WED IN
COORDINATION WITH THE NORTH CAROLINA FORESTRY SERVICE. GIVEN THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS...ONE WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE WV COUNTIES. AM GOING TO
COORDINATE WITH THE USFS BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL DECISION ON THIS.
WITH NO WETTING OF FUELS AND STILL A CONSIDERATION OF LOW
DEWPOINTS FRIDAY...FIRE WEATHER COULD AGAIN BE A CONCERN.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...AND
WINDS LIGHTER...SO NOT AS DEFINITE AS TODAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS/WP
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JH/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
730 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...RESULTING OF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD AREA OF
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE RNK CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
FALL TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW SAGS SOUTHWARD...FALLING FROM VERY
WARM +16C LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY TO AROUND +5C BY THIS EVENING.
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY SFC WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS COMBINED WITH
NEAR FULL INSOLATION...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AGAIN TODAY.
MOS GUIDANCE VARIED HIGHLY FROM VERY WARM MAV MOS TO RATHER COOL
ECMWF MOS. HAVE LEANED FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY TOWARD THE MAV
MOS. CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A PART IN THIS...BUT OVERALL THINKING
IS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AFTER THE MORNING DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND THE NEXT ONES APPROACHING BOTH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST...WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET.
850MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE 0C EVEN INTO FRI...SO LOW TEMPS FRI
MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...APPROACHING BOTH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...HENCE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAMS...WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP IN MOST AREAS INTO FRI
MORNING AS WELL.
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER...WHICH IS
ADDRESSED SEPARATELY BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS A FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WITH ONE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SFC A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF
US. THE MODELS ARE GOING WITH A WEAKER WIND PATTERN FRIDAY BUT STILL
SOMEWHAT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY NORTH ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE. KEEPING HUMIDITY LOW DESPITE SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPS AS THEY MAX OUT FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO 60S.
EAST.
THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AT TIMES ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS FLOW DICTATES DRY
WESTERLIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TO OFF THE SC
COAST. STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF HOW FAST AND DEEP
THE SFC AND UPPER LOW ARE THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AS USUAL IS
HANDLING THIS BETTER IN TERMS OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WHERE THE
00Z NAM IS SIMILAR. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT FOLLOWED THESE
SOLUTIONS CLOSELY. BY DAWN SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE EAST TN/WRN NC MTNS...AND WORKING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TEMP FORECAST SUGGEST SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AT THE ONSET AND POSSIBLY STAYING SNOW AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV SATURDAY. STILL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY...PLUS QPF WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH AND WITH WARM GROUND MAYBE A DUSTING TO HALF INCH ON GRASSY
SFCS...IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST DEEPENS SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A SW FLOW SURGING BACK INTO THE AREA.
SFC FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SFC LOW STRENGTHENING OFF THE NC COAST.
FORECAST SOLUTION SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MTN RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL OVERALL QPF
SUGGESTS LESS THAN ADVISORY AMOUNTS AND WILL KEEP PROBABILITY LOW IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PLACES LIKE THE HOT
SPRINGS/ALLEGHANY MTN RIDGE IN BATH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN GREENBRIER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS MOUNTAIN
LAKE.
LOOK FOR LOWS SAT NIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
TO LOWER TO MID 40S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHOW A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND. FOR TODAY...DRY SURFACE AIR WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A GREAT LAKES SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. UPSTREAM NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SEND PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION FROM TIME-TO-TIME...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ALL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA100 AT THIS
POINT THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS...WHICH SHOULD BE
ON THE ORDER OF WHAT WE SAW WED...PERHAPS A TAD STRONGER AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE
TURBULENT MIXING BEGINS AFTER DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR WSW-WNW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS AT MOST TAF SITES. THUS...WE SHOULD
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SHARPLY AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE
EQUALLY AS QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY EVENING AND VEER MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST BETWEEN THE RESIDUAL FRONT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE NEXT BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS
MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST/NW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS.
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
IMPULSE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LEADS TO SOUTHERN STREAM
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN LOW CIGS AND RAIN
WITH POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS QUITE LOW EVEN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GOOD 30 DEGREE SPREADS EVEN AT THIS HOUR AT MANY
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF DECOUPLED VALLEYS. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
FAIRLY TIGHT AND RESULT IN GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRRR WIND GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED 20-22KT
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT FUEL MOISTURES FROM THE VARIOUS RAWS SITES...REVEALS
6-8 PERCENT VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...WHERE
THE WINDS ARE HIGHER...UPWARDS OF 9-10 PERCENT ACROSS THE NC
COUNTIES...WHERE MORE RAIN FELL A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. FINALLY RH
VALUES...ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY...AS HAS EVEN BEEN THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THE GFS INITIALIZED WAY TOO MOIST...SO I...AS
WELL AS SPC...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/LOWER NAM
DEWPOINTS. AS A RESULT OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS...SPC HAS OUTLOOKED
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
AN SPS FOR FIRE DANGER WAS ALREADY ISSUED ON THE DAY SHIFT WED IN
COORDINATION WITH THE NORTH CAROLINA FORESTRY SERVICE. GIVEN THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS...ONE WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE WV COUNTIES. AM GOING TO
COORDINATE WITH THE USFS BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL DECISION ON THIS.
WITH NO WETTING OF FUELS AND STILL A CONSIDERATION OF LOW
DEWPOINTS FRIDAY...FIRE WEATHER COULD AGAIN BE A CONCERN.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...AND
WINDS LIGHTER...SO NOT AS DEFINITE AS TODAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JH/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
517 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...RESULTING OF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD AREA OF
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE RNK CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
FALL TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW SAGS SOUTHWARD...FALLING FROM VERY
WARM +16C LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY TO AROUND +5C BY THIS EVENING.
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY SFC WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS COMBINED WITH
NEAR FULL INSOLATION...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AGAIN TODAY.
MOS GUIDANCE VARIED HIGHLY FROM VERY WARM MAV MOS TO RATHER COOL
ECMWF MOS. HAVE LEANED FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY TOWARD THE MAV
MOS. CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A PART IN THIS...BUT OVERALL THINKING
IS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AFTER THE MORNING DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND THE NEXT ONES APPROACHING BOTH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST...WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET.
850MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE 0C EVEN INTO FRI...SO LOW TEMPS FRI
MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...APPROACHING BOTH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...HENCE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAMS...WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP IN MOST AREAS INTO FRI
MORNING AS WELL.
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER...WHICH IS
ADDRESSED SEPARATELY BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS A FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WITH ONE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SFC A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF
US. THE MODELS ARE GOING WITH A WEAKER WIND PATTERN FRIDAY BUT STILL
SOMEWHAT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY NORTH ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE. KEEPING HUMIDITY LOW DESPITE SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPS AS THEY MAX OUT FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO 60S.
EAST.
THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AT TIMES ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS FLOW DICTATES DRY
WESTERLIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TO OFF THE SC
COAST. STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF HOW FAST AND DEEP
THE SFC AND UPPER LOW ARE THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AS USUAL IS
HANDLING THIS BETTER IN TERMS OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WHERE THE
00Z NAM IS SIMILAR. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT FOLLOWED THESE
SOLUTIONS CLOSELY. BY DAWN SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE EAST TN/WRN NC MTNS...AND WORKING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TEMP FORECAST SUGGEST SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AT THE ONSET AND POSSIBLY STAYING SNOW AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV SATURDAY. STILL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY...PLUS QPF WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH AND WITH WARM GROUND MAYBE A DUSTING TO HALF INCH ON GRASSY
SFCS...IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST DEEPENS SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A SW FLOW SURGING BACK INTO THE AREA.
SFC FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SFC LOW STRENGTHENING OFF THE NC COAST.
FORECAST SOLUTION SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MTN RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL OVERALL QPF
SUGGESTS LESS THAN ADVISORY AMOUNTS AND WILL KEEP PROBABILITY LOW IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PLACES LIKE THE HOT
SPRINGS/ALLEGHANY MTN RIDGE IN BATH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN GREENBRIER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS MOUNTAIN
LAKE.
LOOK FOR LOWS SAT NIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
TO LOWER TO MID 40S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHOW A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND. FOR TODAY...DRY SURFACE AIR WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A GREAT LAKES SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. UPSTREAM NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SEND PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION FROM TIME-TO-TIME...ESPECIALLY LATE THU.
HOWEVER...ALL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA100 AT THIS POINT.
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS...WHICH SHOULD BE
ON THE ORDER OF WHAT WE SAW WED...PERHAPS A TAD STRONGER AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE
TURBULENT MIXING BEGINS AFTER DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR WSW-WNW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS AT MOST TAF SITES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST BETWEEN THE RESIDUAL FRONT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE NEXT BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS
MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST/NW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS.
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
IMPULSE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LEADS TO SOUTHERN STREAM
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN LOW CIGS AND RAIN
WITH POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS QUITE LOW EVEN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GOOD 30 DEGREE SPREADS EVEN AT THIS HOUR AT MANY
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF DECOUPLED VALLEYS. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
FAIRLY TIGHT AND RESULT IN GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRRR WIND GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED 20-22KT
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT FUEL MOISTURES FROM THE VARIOUS RAWS SITES...REVEALS
6-8 PERCENT VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...WHERE
THE WINDS ARE HIGHER...UPWARDS OF 9-10 PERCENT ACROSS THE NC
COUNTIES...WHERE MORE RAIN FELL A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. FINALLY RH
VALUES...ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY...AS HAS EVEN BEEN THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THE GFS INITIALIZED WAY TOO MOIST...SO I...AS
WELL AS SPC...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/LOWER NAM
DEWPOINTS. AS A RESULT OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS...SPC HAS OUTLOOKED
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
AN SPS FOR FIRE DANGER WAS ALREADY ISSUED ON THE DAY SHIFT WED IN
COORDINATION WITH THE NORTH CAROLINA FORESTRY SERVICE. GIVEN THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS...ONE WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE WV COUNTIES. AM GOING TO
COORDINATE WITH THE USFS BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL DECISION ON THIS.
WITH NO WETTING OF FUELS AND STILL A CONSIDERATION OF LOW
DEWPOINTS FRIDAY...FIRE WEATHER COULD AGAIN BE A CONCERN.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...AND
WINDS LIGHTER...SO NOT AS DEFINITE AS TODAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JH/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
851 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS SHOW LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICALLY-
FORCED BAND OF LIGHT PCPN OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT THEN WEAKEN ALONG
WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS AFTER 06Z AS LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WRAP
AROUND TO THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE NEARLY STACKED LOW OVER NE
IOWA.
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY MAINLY RAIN/SPRINKLES THIS
EVENING...THOUGH A FEW SNOWFLAKES ARE EXPECTED TO MIX IN AROUND
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TOP OF CLOUD LAYER REACHES INTO THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW CWA. THE 18Z NAM IS DRIER AND
SHOWING LESS OMEGA THAN THE LATEST RAP OR 18Z GFS ON THE MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR BLUE RIVER. MAY SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON
GRASSY AERAS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IF RAP/GFS ARE CORRECT.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
MAIN PROBLEM IS CEILING HEIGHT WITH MVFR/FUEL ALTERNATE CIGS
UNDER THE BANDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS ARCING BACK IN CONVERGENCE ZONE INTO
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. SREF PROBABILITY OF CIGS UNDER 3K FEET
INDICATING MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL NOT ONLY
REINFORCE THE MVFR CIGS ALREADY THERE BUT SPREAD THEM WEST OVER
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z SATURDAY.
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z GUIDANCE WHEN FULLY IN...BUT CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE TRENDING WELL WITH ONGOING FORECAST AND WILL KEEP
CIGS AT MVFR LEVELS UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE
WEST. THANKS TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PIVOT FROM JUST
WEST OF WISCONSIN TONIGHT TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW
EVENING. A NEARLY STATIONARY LOBE OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK...REMAINING NEAR BY THE STATE BUT
KEEPING THE BEST FORCING OUT OF OUR AREA THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN LARGELY SATURATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS/DEFORMATION ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS BAND WILL WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER
IN THE EVENING. LIKE THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BEST FORCING FROM THIS
FEATURE REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SATURATED THROUGH SATURDAY SO
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND THE PRECIP
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH THAT LIFT. WITH WEAK FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION. THE LACK OF ADVECTION AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND PERHAPS JUST BELOW SEASONAL VALUES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
WE SHOULD BE UNDER ENOUGH HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS FEATURES THAT LOOK LIKE THEY COULD RUIN THAT
EXPECTATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT
FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS RIDGING WILL BE
A BIT DIRTY HOWEVER...SO LOOK FOR A FAIR MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
WE/LL BE TRANSITIONING INTO AN ACTIVE PERIOD NEXT WEEK. IN THE MID
LEVELS...WE/LL GO FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT TO ZONAL
THEN TO SOUTHWEST BY WED. THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
WILL PUSH IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH QUICK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS KICKING
IN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WE SEE A DECENT SLUG OF
DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVE LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING INITIALLY. THE WAA MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP LATER MON NIGHT. TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 50S...WITH A FEW 60S POSSIBLE ALONG THE WI/IL
BORDER. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WE/LL SEE THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DROP SOUTH...BUT TROFING WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW
INTO WISCONSIN. THAT TROF WILL HOLD STEADY WHILE THE LOW PIVOTS
SOUTH. EVENTUALLY BY WEDNESDAY WE ARE IN AN INVERTED TROF
CONFIGURATION. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD RIDE
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF A
DEEPER LONGITUDINAL TROF DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. ALL THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES IS VERY
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. FOR THE MOST PART WE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR ALL RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WE MAY START TO TURN
COLDER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME WINTRY
MIX MOVING IN. IF YOU/RE HEADED NORTH INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...TEMPS WILL BE COLDER WITH MORE SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
EXPECTED.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIGS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE AREA HAVE FINALLY REACHED VFR CIGS SO THERE IS STILL HOPE
THAT THE TAF SITES WILL FOLLOW SUIT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT CIGS WILL COME BACK DOWN TO AT
LEAST MVFR OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY FIRST HAPPEN ALONG ROUGHLY A
MSN TO ENW LINE...WHERE A WEAK BAND OF LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL SET
UP...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD FOLLOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW IFR CIGS MOVING IN AFTER AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS THAT WE WILL REMAIN AT MVFR. THERE
IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
FORCING...BUT DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL OCCUR. CIGS
SHOULD BOUNCE BACK UP LATER TOMORROW MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING
KICKS IN.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...99
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
637 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
AT 3 PM...A BAND OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DODGE CENTER MINNESOTA /WHICH
IS REPORTING SNOW/...WE ARE SEEING MAINLY REPORTS OF RAIN OUT OF
THESE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A BAND OF WEAK
900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THIS BAND EXTENDS WEST TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE COOLS TO LESS THAN 1500 FEET.
WHILE THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE 800 TO
700 MB WEAKENS AND MOVES WEST. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE 900 TO 850
MB LAPSE RATES WEAKEN AND THAT THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL DECREASE.
BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR COBB DATA PRODUCE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AT
KRST. THIS MAINLY DUE TO THIS MODEL PRODUCING SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS OF 20-30 TO 1 WHICH SEEMS VERY UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING THE
MOISTURE AND THE DEPTH OF THE LIFT. IN ADDITION...GROUND
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE 2-INCH
SOIL DEPTH TEMPERATURE AT OUR OFFICE IS CURRENTLY 38F...SO THIS
WILL LIKELY HELP TO CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOW UNLESS THE SNOW
RATES ARE HIGH. AS RESULT...PREFER THE NAM AND GFS COBB DATA WHICH
PRODUCE LITTLE...IF ANY SNOW. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS HAVE UP TO 1
INCH NEAR INTERSTATE 35 WHICH SEEMS REALISTIC SINCE IT IS CLOSER
TO THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT IS LOCATED NEAR THE PIVOT POINT OF THE
800 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS.
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE. AS A
RESULT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP
UNTIL IT REACHES NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. IN OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT THIS
TIME LOOK INITIALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET AND
THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...THE AREA WILL ENTER THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 4C IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO 12C
IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND AND IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM THE PLAINS WILL CONFINE ANY
PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A
LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOOK WARM INITIALLY FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX AND SNOW. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND BY THIS TIME.
THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF...SO IT WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD VERY LITTLE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. ALSO...VISIBILITIES COULD
FALL TO AROUND 2 MILES UNDER THE STEADIER SNOW SHOWERS. CEILINGS
LOOK TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AT KLSE AND IFR AT KRST OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE BLACK RIVER IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WATER
LEVELS ARE FALLING AT BLACK RIVER FALLS...BUT THE CREST HAS NOT
QUITE REACHED GALESVILLE YET. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF WATER WERE
MOVING THROUGH THE WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN AS WELL. THE YELLOW RIVER
AT NECEDAH WAS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND A CREST NEAR MAJOR LEVEL IS
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER 44000 CFS OUT OF
CASTLE ROCK DAM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
MINOR FLOODING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO MUSCODA THIS WEEKEND. AND AS THE
HIGH WATER ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI MEETS UP WITH THIS WISCONSIN RIVER
VOLUME...EXPECT MINOR FLOODING TO BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR
MCGREGOR AND GUTTENBERG EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. FURTHER UPSTREAM ON
THE MIGHTY MISSISSIPPI...INFLOW FROM THE CHIPPEWA RIVER WILL HELP
WABASHA TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE... AND SOME MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED
THERE. THANKFULLY...NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
610 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
LOW PRESSURE THAT GAVE THE AREA HEAVY RAIN/GUSTY WINDS/SNOW OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF MARQUETTE MI OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING ELONGATED
E/W CLOSED LOW ROTATING SOUTHWARD FROM UPPER MI THROUGH NORTHERN
MN/ND. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM THE TWIN CITIES INTO WEST
CENTRAL/CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
FOR TODAY...WILL SEE THAT MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH SWING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR WIDESPREAD CUMULUS/SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ANTICIPATING MOSTLY RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT COULD SE A FEW FLAKES UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. BECAUSE OF THE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DEEPER
MIXING WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-35 MPH
RANGE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY IN THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WI.
ISOLATED RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THAT TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE 20S.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...A
LITTLE BRIGHTER NORTHEAST OF I-94 AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ACROSS THAT
AREA ON NORTHEAST WINDS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
THE MIDDLE 40S.
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO IOWA. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT IF
ANYTHING...GENERALLY JUST A DUSTING EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
LIGHT SNOW/RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW SINKS SOUTHEAST INTO IL FROM IA. HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OTHERWISE...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 30S
TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY LOOK PRECIPITATION-FREE WITH MID-
LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW AT
NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD LAKE
HURON. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW...EXPECT TO
SEE THE CLOUDS SPREAD BACK IN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CEILINGS. THE 17.09Z HRRR SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE MOST OF
THE OTHER MESO-SCALE MODELS KEEP ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS NORTH
OF BOTH TAF SITES. THE 17.06Z NAM DOES NOT SHOW MUCH LIFT THROUGH
THE SATURATED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES HAVE GOOD LAPSE RATES
UP THROUGH 700 MB SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE EVEN A VCSH AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME GUSTY
WEST WINDS...BUT NO WHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
DEVELOPS AND CUTS OFF THE MIXING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING TO PROMPT RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
THE BLACK/TREMPEALEAU AND YELLOW RIVERS.
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS...PLEASE VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
403 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING THE WINDS WELL STIRRED
ON NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 15 MPH. SOME SPRINKLES AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE FALLING
FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT MOST PLACES ARE STAYING DRY. THE
PCPN IS SLOWLY HELPING TO SATURATE THE DRY LOW LEVELS. EVEN SO...
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL QUITE LOW ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH 25 TO 30
DEGREE VALUES WEST AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE THEN ROLLS THROUGH THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY AS A OPEN...BUT STILL RATHER
SHARP...TROUGH. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND TROUGH
WILL TARGET KENTUCKY STARTING THIS MORNING AS ITS FIRST BATCH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE ARRIVAL OF
THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER ROBUST BATCH OF
ENERGY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A MODEL BLEND FOR WX
SPECIFICS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A STRONG
LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH
MORNING...PARTICULARLY NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES
PAST THE CWA TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS LIGHT RAIN WILL START
MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS EAST KENTUCKY WITH
MORE SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE MAINLY
A MORNING EVENT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST OF ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN
THE FAR NORTH COULD MIX WITH A TOUCH OF SNOW...BUT THIS WOULD MELT
IMMEDIATELY WHEN HITTING THE STILL WARM GROUND. LIGHT RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY...SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AS THAT UPPER ENERGY TARGETS THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD ALSO
HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE...A STARK CONTRAST TO THE WX OF MUCH OF THE PAST
WEEK OR TWO.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE ONLY
FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE...MAINLY TO ENHANCE THE TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AT THE START
AND MORE RECENT MODEL TRENDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
OPEN UPPER WAVE WILL BE PULLING EAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW UPSLOPE TYPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT EASTERN KY SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
WILL THEN NOSE IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE
COULD MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SOME MAINLY PATCHY VALLEY FROST EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL
BRING A QUIET PERIOD FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ALSO DURING THE
PERIOD FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING WOULD
INTRODUCE SOME GUSTIER WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY.
OVERALL DRIEST DAYS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS COULD CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN.
WHILE SOME RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES FLATTENED.
WE THEN BEGIN TO FOCUS ON DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE
WEST CONUS...AS WE MOVE TOWARD MID AND LATE WEEK. MODELS WERE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT HAVE SINCE DIVERGED A BIT. ONE OF THE ISSUES IS
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE
00Z GFS CLOSES THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
DEEPENS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN KY. IT TAKES THIS SURFACE LOW
NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WHILE SWEEPING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN KY. WHILE THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN RELATION
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...OVERALL 12Z ECMWF
MATCHED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 00Z GFS SURFACE FEATURES. THE LATEST
00Z ECMWF IS QUITE DIFFERENT WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER WAVE
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE THIS WOULD SWING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN KY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS SAID A BIT LESS CONFIDENCE
EXISTS AT THIS POINT WITH RESPECT TO THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION...AND GIVEN THAT WILL STICK WITH MODEL BLEND THAT DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE LATEST SOLUTION. THEREFORE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ON FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS WARM AND MOIST
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURE WISE WE DO BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURE QUICKLY WARM ABOVE AVERAGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE AND WAA TAKES OVER...WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWER
70S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION. BY SATURDAY MORNING WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS. ALONG WITH THE LOWER CIGS...LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE SEEN AND COULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT FOG/BR AT TIMES. A
DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALLOWING PRECIP TO CUT OFF AT KLOZ AND KSME AND
POTENTIALLY THE CIGS WOULD TEMPORARILY IMPROVE. ELSEWHERE...VCSH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING THE WINDS WELL STIRRED
ON NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 15 MPH. SOME SPRINKLES AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE FALLING
FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT MOST PLACES ARE STAYING DRY. THE
PCPN IS SLOWLY HELPING TO SATURATE THE DRY LOW LEVELS. EVEN SO...
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL QUITE LOW ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH 25 TO 30
DEGREE VALUES WEST AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE THEN ROLLS THROUGH THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY AS A OPEN...BUT STILL RATHER
SHARP...TROUGH. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND TROUGH
WILL TARGET KENTUCKY STARTING THIS MORNING AS ITS FIRST BATCH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE ARRIVAL OF
THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER ROBUST BATCH OF
ENERGY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A MODEL BLEND FOR WX
SPECIFICS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A STRONG
LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH
MORNING...PARTICULARLY NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES
PAST THE CWA TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS LIGHT RAIN WILL START
MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS EAST KENTUCKY WITH
MORE SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE MAINLY
A MORNING EVENT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST OF ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN
THE FAR NORTH COULD MIX WITH A TOUCH OF SNOW...BUT THIS WOULD MELT
IMMEDIATELY WHEN HITTING THE STILL WARM GROUND. LIGHT RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY...SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AS THAT UPPER ENERGY TARGETS THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD ALSO
HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE...A STARK CONTRAST TO THE WX OF MUCH OF THE PAST
WEEK OR TWO.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE ONLY
FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE...MAINLY TO ENHANCE THE TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AT THE START
AND MORE RECENT MODEL TRENDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION. BY SATURDAY MORNING WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS. ALONG WITH THE LOWER CIGS...LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE SEEN AND COULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT FOG/BR AT TIMES. A
DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALLOWING PRECIP TO CUT OFF AT KLOZ AND KSME AND
POTENTIALLY THE CIGS WOULD TEMPORARILY IMPROVE. ELSEWHERE...VCSH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
200 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND FROM THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR SOME SPRINKLES IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE LOW
LEVELS SLOWLY SATURATE. STILL LOOKING AT A WETBULBING SITUATION AS
THIS HAPPENS IN THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA...BUT MOST LIKELY
ANY SNOW AROUND SUNRISE WILL BE MIXED WITH RAIN...WET...AND
FLEETING. HAVE ALSO TOUCHED UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
CLOUDS AND VIRGA HAVE BEGUN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME
VALLEY TEMPS DROPPING OFF INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS.
BUT AS THE THICKER CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD MODERATE. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ALL OF THE ECHOES
CURRENTLY ON RADAR IS STILL VIRGA WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
RANGING FROM 10 DEGREES IN DEEP VALLEYS UP TO 30 DEGREES ON
RIDGES. THAT BEING SAID...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
WEST AROUND 04Z WHICH IS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ALSO REFRESHED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
SOME SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE. THE HRRR DOESN/T HAVE A GREAT HOLD ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE NAM12 WHEN REFRESHING THE POPS. ALSO
DID A QUICK REFRESH ON HOURLY TEMPS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER DRY...AND PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE ONGOING CLEAR SKIES...VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE HOLDING STEADY
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. BEST FORCING WILL LIKELY SLIDE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH
THE SYSTEM TO YIELD WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
HIGHER MET/MAV POP NUMBERS...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL.
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT HEAVY AS IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO
SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO START MEASURING GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WITH COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY EARLY TOMORROW. THIS...COMBINED WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S
TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR
NOTHING AT ALL BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS
TEMPERATURES START TO FALL SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...BUT NO FROST AS CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY
SUNDAY MORNING...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE EXITING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THAT SAID...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALL FOR SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS WARMING UP THROUGH THE DAY
EARLY...EXPECT THERE TO BE LESS OF A SNOW POSSIBILITY. IN FACT
ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AFTER THE
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP
OVER THE REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND NEARLY INTO
MIDWEEK. WITH THE CLEARING AND DRY PERIOD...MONDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP IN THE
VALLEYS.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH NUDGES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
TO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND EVEN
NEAR 70 BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WARM AND MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR SETS UP OVER THE OH VALLEY. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE
THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST A BIT EARLIER. AS FOR CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. DUE TO THIS...REMAINED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND
MODEL. AFTER THE COOL DOWN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A STRONG WARMING
PERIOD WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION. BY SATURDAY MORNING WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A MIX
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS. ALONG WITH THE LOWER CIGS...LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE SEEN AND COULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT FOG/BR AT TIMES. A
DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALLOWING PRECIP TO CUT OFF AT KLOZ AND KSME AND
POTENTIALLY THE CIGS WOULD TEMPORARILY IMPROVE. ELSEWHERE...VCSH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
439 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER
THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH COLDER TODAY AND BREEZY.
COLD AIR ADVECTING IN FROM CANADA WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPS
TODAY AND WELL BELOW NORMAL. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 20 MPH
W/SOME HIGH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
AS WELL STATED BY THE DAYCREW, SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION, INCLUDING BANGOR TO THE COAST W/THE NW DOWNSLOPE
WIND. ACROSS THE N AND W, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 800MBS
WILL SET UP SOME CLOUDS AND COLD FLOW COMING OFF OPEN ST. LAWRENCE
WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR STREAMERS. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME SB CAPE AROUND 40 JOULES BUT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. THE HRRR 3KM AND HIGH RES NAM SHOWED SOME
SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR N AND W. DECIDED TO GO W/20% POPS AND USE
SNOW SHOWER WORDING FOR THE WX ELEMENT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HIT UPPER
LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
CANADA. CLEARING SKIES AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED W/THE
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT. INVERSION SETTING UP
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES HITTING THE
SINGLE NUMBERS W/AREAS ACROSS THE N AND W HITTING BELOW 0F
ESPECIALLY THE LOW LYING AREAS. LOWER TEENS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST LOCALES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH
EVEN THE LATEST EC FURTHER EAST. THIS, ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT
MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES TAKE THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA, NECESSITATED ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/QPF/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MAINE AND
THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH DRY, ALBEIT UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART INTO TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FROM KCAR TO KFVE AS SOME MVFR CIGS COULD SET UP
TODAY.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
MAINLY KBGR/KBHB. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR OUTER WATERS THROUGH 8 PM. GUSTS TO 25 KT OCCURRING ATTM PER
THE BUOYS AND WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS WERE RUNNING 4-6 FT. CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW SCA BY THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM CANADA AND WIND DROP OFF.
DAYCREW HAD THIS HANDLED WELL.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED
TO 1 TO 3 NM IN SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1138 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/
UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR UPDATES MADE THIS EVENING...
FIRST...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ARRIVING SLIGHTLY MORE
QUICKLY...LIKELY DRIVEN BY PRECIPITATION THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER FALLING INTO A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. THIS COOLED
PREFRONTAL TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
ARRIVING SHORTLY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE HRRR IS GROSSLY
OVERDONE. OTHERWISE...COOLER CONDITIONS ARE STILL ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO
MIDLAND TEXAS. A SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM NEAR MIDLAND TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF SHOWERS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. AROUND 6 PM...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.
LINGERING SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE MAY SET OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-30 POPS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP
ANY FROST FROM DEVELOPING.
AN UPPER TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
WEST TENNESSEE. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR SUNDAY
EVENING. AFTER A COOL DAY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR. THE ONE CAVEAT MAY BE
IF THE WINDS STAY UP...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. A FROST OR FREEZE COULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUCH AN EXTENDED WARM PERIOD...NEWLY BLOOMED
VEGETATION MAY BE IMPACTED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
VFR PREVAILED AT 04Z...WITH SCATTERED -SHRA FALLING FROM MIDLEVEL
CLOUD BASES. EXPECT VFR VSBY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR SETTLING IN ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS. POST FRONTAL MVFR WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF TOWARD DAYBREAK...LIKELY SHORT-LIVED...WHILE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP RADIATION FOG AT BAY AT TUP DURING THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1137 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. MVFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STILL MIGHT GET A FEW
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WILL FOSTER STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/
UPDATE...
WHILE EARLIER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HOUSTON METRO HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE METRO AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE FRONT
ROUGHLY ALONG A LUFKIN...HUNTSVILLE...BRENHAM LINE. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE REMAINING
SCATTERED AT BEST AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THE A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THAN EARLIER THIS EVENING
/LIMITING THE OVERALL STRONG STORM THREAT TONIGHT/. HOWEVER...
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR JACKSON COUNTY/AREAS AROUND
MATAGORDA BAY FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS IT POSSIBLY PUSHES EAST
FROM NEAR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/COASTAL COUNTIES.
THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH ELEVATED /20-30 MPH/
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS TO SHIFT SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT... EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FEATURES OF NOTE AT 3 PM WERE A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...A STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR AND EAST OF HOUSTON COUNTY...AND A COLD FRONT NEAR A LINE
FROM TERRELL TO NEAR WACO. THE AIRMASS OVER SE TX HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CAPPED ALL DAY...HOWEVER DO EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING AS THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AND THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. SOME HAVE ALREADY STARTED OVER TRINITY
AND POLK COUNTIES NEAR WHERE THE GRAVITY WAVE WAS INTERACTING WITH
THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT.
THE MODELS DIFFERED A BIT ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE DONE WELL SO FAR AND
BOTH HAVE LESS COVERAGE THAN WAS EARLIER FORECAST. THE NAM12...
ARW...NMM...AND TO AN EXTENT THE RAP13...ALSO AGREE WITH LESS
COVERAGE. THE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFLUENT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE SHEARING OUT SYSTEM IN MEXICO. DO
EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO OCCUR AT LEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BECAUSE
OF THIS...DECIDED TO GO WITH NO MORE THAN 50 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST SHOULD OCCUR AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SE
TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT LEAST ALONG
THE COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
40
MARINE...
THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM...OR ONCE THE
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT ARRIVE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
POSTED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. GUSTS TO 30KT ARE A
POSSIBILITY SAT MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND SWING BACK ONSHORE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND SEAS THEN BUILD
INTO MIDWEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. 47
FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER
MSUNNY SKIES. RH`S SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 27-32% RANGE WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE MET, BUT MAY BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 52 62 42 63 40 / 40 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 59 66 46 66 41 / 50 20 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 68 53 65 51 / 60 30 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1103 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
WHILE EARLIER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HOUSTON METRO HAS SINCE
DISSIPATEED... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE METRO AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE FRONT
ROUGHLY ALONG A LUFKIN...HUNTSVILLE...BRENHAM LINE. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE REMAINING
SCATTERED AT BEST AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THE A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THAN EARLIER THIS EVENING
/LIMITING THE OVERALL STRONG STORM THREAT TONIGHT/. HOWEVER...
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR JACKSON COUNTY/AREAS AROUND
MATAGORDA BAY FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS IT POSSIBLY PUSHES EAST
FROM NEAR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/COASTAL COUNTIES.
THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH ELEVATED /20-30 MPH/
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS TO SHIFT SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT... EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/
AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF BUSH IAH BUT MAY AFFECT
BOTH KSGR AND KHOU. CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG NW-N WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO BREAK BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FEATURES OF NOTE AT 3 PM WERE A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...A STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR AND EAST OF HOUSTON COUNTY...AND A COLD FRONT NEAR A LINE
FROM TERRELL TO NEAR WACO. THE AIRMASS OVER SE TX HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CAPPED ALL DAY...HOWEVER DO EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING AS THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AND THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. SOME HAVE ALREADY STARTED OVER TRINITY
AND POLK COUNTIES NEAR WHERE THE GRAVITY WAVE WAS INTERACTING WITH
THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT.
THE MODELS DIFFERED A BIT ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE DONE WELL SO FAR AND
BOTH HAVE LESS COVERAGE THAN WAS EARLIER FORECAST. THE NAM12...
ARW...NMM...AND TO AN EXTENT THE RAP13...ALSO AGREE WITH LESS
COVERAGE. THE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFLUENT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE SHEARING OUT SYSTEM IN MEXICO. DO
EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO OCCUR AT LEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BECAUSE
OF THIS...DECIDED TO GO WITH NO MORE THAN 50 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST SHOULD OCCUR AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SE
TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT LEAST ALONG
THE COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
40
MARINE...
THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM...OR ONCE THE
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT ARRIVE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
POSTED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. GUSTS TO 30KT ARE A
POSSIBILITY SAT MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND SWING BACK ONSHORE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND SEAS THEN BUILD
INTO MIDWEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. 47
FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER
MSUNNY SKIES. RH`S SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 27-32% RANGE WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE MET, BUT MAY BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 52 62 42 63 40 / 40 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 59 66 46 66 41 / 50 20 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 68 53 65 51 / 60 30 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1147 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.UPDATE...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
PERSISTENT BAND OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. RIDGE TOP LOCATIONS
HAVE RECEIVED 1 TO AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW. THE RAIN HAS JUST
SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW AT KLSE. PLAN ON STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE NAM INCREASES THE FRONTOGENESIS REGION BACK UP AGAIN
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS SO SEEING NO REASON FOR THE SNOW TO
EASE UP BEFORE 2 AM. ROADS SURFACES ARE WARM ENOUGH IN MANY
LOCATIONS THAT THE SNOW IS HAVING TROUBLE STICKING. THAT WILL
CHANGE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
AT 3 PM...A BAND OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DODGE CENTER MINNESOTA /WHICH
IS REPORTING SNOW/...WE ARE SEEING MAINLY REPORTS OF RAIN OUT OF
THESE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A BAND OF WEAK
900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THIS BAND EXTENDS WEST TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE COOLS TO LESS THAN 1500 FEET.
WHILE THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE 800 TO
700 MB WEAKENS AND MOVES WEST. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE 900 TO 850
MB LAPSE RATES WEAKEN AND THAT THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL DECREASE.
BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR COBB DATA PRODUCE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AT
KRST. THIS MAINLY DUE TO THIS MODEL PRODUCING SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS OF 20-30 TO 1 WHICH SEEMS VERY UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING THE
MOISTURE AND THE DEPTH OF THE LIFT. IN ADDITION...GROUND
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE 2-INCH
SOIL DEPTH TEMPERATURE AT OUR OFFICE IS CURRENTLY 38F...SO THIS
WILL LIKELY HELP TO CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOW UNLESS THE SNOW
RATES ARE HIGH. AS RESULT...PREFER THE NAM AND GFS COBB DATA WHICH
PRODUCE LITTLE...IF ANY SNOW. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS HAVE UP TO 1
INCH NEAR INTERSTATE 35 WHICH SEEMS REALISTIC SINCE IT IS CLOSER
TO THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT IS LOCATED NEAR THE PIVOT POINT OF THE
800 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS.
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE. AS A
RESULT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP
UNTIL IT REACHES NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. IN OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT THIS
TIME LOOK INITIALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET AND
THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...THE AREA WILL ENTER THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 4C IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO 12C
IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND AND IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM THE PLAINS WILL CONFINE ANY
PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A
LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOOK WARM INITIALLY FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX AND SNOW. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND BY THIS TIME.
THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF...SO IT WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD VERY LITTLE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER
STRATUS AND SNOW SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO AROUND 500 FT AT
KRST AND TO AROUND 900 AT KLSE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
AFTER 10Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 14Z AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENTUALLY TO VFR BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE STRATUS
LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT. WINDS WON/T BE MUCH OF A CONCERN
TONIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 7 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE BLACK RIVER IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WATER
LEVELS ARE FALLING AT BLACK RIVER FALLS...BUT THE CREST HAS NOT
QUITE REACHED GALESVILLE YET. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF WATER WERE
MOVING THROUGH THE WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN AS WELL. THE YELLOW RIVER
AT NECEDAH WAS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND A CREST NEAR MAJOR LEVEL IS
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER 44000 CFS OUT OF
CASTLE ROCK DAM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
MINOR FLOODING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO MUSCODA THIS WEEKEND. AND AS THE
HIGH WATER ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI MEETS UP WITH THIS WISCONSIN RIVER
VOLUME...EXPECT MINOR FLOODING TO BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR
MCGREGOR AND GUTTENBERG EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. FURTHER UPSTREAM ON
THE MIGHTY MISSISSIPPI...INFLOW FROM THE CHIPPEWA RIVER WILL HELP
WABASHA TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE... AND SOME MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED
THERE. THANKFULLY...NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
413 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS CONTINUES ITS
GRIP ON OUR WEATHER THIS MORNING. STRONG CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
TROUGH HAS DRIVEN ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR DOWN
FROM WYOMING AND ACRS NERN COLORADO DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
RADAR IS CURRENTLY DETECTING A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL
FROM THE FRONT RANGE IN NRN LARIMER COUNTY TO CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTY. HOWEVER...ONLY THE FORT COLLINS OBSERVATION SITE HAS
INDICATED ANY SNOW REACHING THE GROUND AS OF YET. NAM AND WRF
MODELS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS BAND
OF PRECIP MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND OVER THE DENVER
METRO AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NAM AND WRF INDICATE
UPWARDS OF 0.2 INCH OF SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA AS WELL AS ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE ACRS ERN DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES BY 15Z
THIS MORNING. A LOT OF FUSS ABOUT A DUSTING OF SNOW...HOWEVER
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...MODELS INDICATED NOTHING OF THE SORT. SO
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ACRS THE NERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
MORNING. HAVE ALSO TRENDED WINDS ON THE PLAINS TO A N-NELY
COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WEAKENING AS THEY TURN TO A SELY DIRECTION...
WHILE FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS WINDS ARE FCST TO BECOME NWLY AND
INCREASE IN SPEED. SHOULD ALSO SEE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THIS LATEST SURGE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
TODAY NOT MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION. LOOK FOR ONLY MID 30S/LOWER 40S ON THE PLAINS AND
GENERALLY 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. OH YES...THE FEW REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD PRETTY MUCH COME TO
AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRYING ALOFT.
TONIGHT...CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF MIN TEMPS WELL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS COLORADO ON SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY MONDAY...THE
SNOW WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE BIG WARMING
ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF
30-40KT SO COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER EXPOSED EAST
SLOPES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE QUITE VARIED IN THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL THE
STRONGEST WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
BY LATE WEDNEDAY. THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW
OVER NEBRASKA WHILE GFS SOLUTIONS IS PAINTING AN IN BETWEEN
SOLUTION AS AN OPEN WAVE. WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE IN THIS
PERIOD AS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A PERIOD OF PRECIP ALONG WITH
DROPPING TEMPERATURES WITH COLD FRONT. IF THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS
CORRECT COULD HAVE ANOTHER SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE
EAST SLOPES. ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016
CEILINGS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH WEAK N/NELY UPSLOPE FLOW. COULD SEE CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND
3000-4000FT AT KDEN..KBJC AND KAPA FOR A FEW HRS AROUND 12Z...AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW FLURRIES. NOTHING MORE THAN THAT. BY LATE
MORNING SHOULD SEE WINDS SLOWLY TURNING EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS UNDER 12KTS. SHOULD ALSO SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS BEFORE 18Z. SKIES
OVERNIGHT WILL CLEAR WITH A LIGHT S-SWLY WIND PATTERN OVER THE
METRO AREA.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA
CAPES THIS EVENING. THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHENS
IN ITS PASSAGE EAST OF CAPE COD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. THAT HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT FORMS FROM NEAR LONG ISLAND
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE DAY WILL START OFF WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY, CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THE BASES WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING COASTAL SYSTEM.
THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
AFTN, SO HAVE TRENDED BACK ONSET AND POPS A BIT DURG THE DAY. WILL
WAIT TO MAKE FURTHER CHANGES UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE MRNG
GUIDANCE SUITE.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO PUSH THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
EAST, AND IN TURN WE ARE SEEING MORE OF A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE
BOARD. WITH THAT IN MIND, WE HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS AND MORE TOWARDS THE COAST, WHILE LOWERING PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN A STRAIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OR MIX
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE REMOVED THE SLEET FROM THE GRIDS AS THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER ALOFT
WHICH WOULD INDICATE MELTING AND WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE WE OPTED TO
STICK WITH JUST RAIN AND SNOW AT THIS JUNCTURE.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME HEAVIER BANDS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THE SET UP APPEARS TO
BE FROM AROUND WILMINGTON, DELAWARE THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA. MODELS SHOW THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW AND COULD FALL AT A GOOD CLIP FOR A FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER, THE GROUND IS FAIRLY WARM AND WITH THE STRONG SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR, SNOW WILL NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO AROUND
THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW REMAINS OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS TRENDING DRYER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW, WE HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE POPS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. WE CONTINUE TO MENTION
SOME CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT BUT FOCUS OUR POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND EVEN WITH THE OVERCAST
SKIES, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP QUITE A BIT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IF THE GEFS ENDS UP CORRECT IN CONSTANTLY FCSTG EAST OF ALL OTHER
MODELS THE PAST FEW DAYS INCLUDING THE SREF, EPS...IT WILL BE
QUITE NOTEWORTHY.
500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MIDWEST SUNDAY WILL CROSS THE
EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING. AN IMPT PIECE IN THIS FCST IS THE DVLPT
OF SIGNIFICANT HT FALLS IN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING SWINGING
PVA/PIVA NEWD THROUGH OUR THE DELMARVA AROUND 09Z/MONDAY IN THE
FORM OF A 160M 12 HR HFC. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS EARLY IN THE
WEEK AND BACKS TO SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WARMING
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST WHILE A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES
MOVE INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION.
TEMPERATURES: ITS BEEN VERY WARM SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MARCH...6 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW A BRIEF COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY
THIS WEEK BEFORE IT WARMS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEKS END. CALENDAR
DAY AVERAGES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THE FORECAST WAS MOSTLY
GFS MOS SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY NAM WAS
DISMISSED IN THE FCST PROCESS WHEN CONSIDERED AGAINST THE MULTI
MODEL AND WPC WETTER AND COOLER SUNDAY SCENARIO. A 50 50 BLEND
00Z/19 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT- MONDAY, THEREAFTER
THE 00Z/19 GFS MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY. THERE WAS NOT
TIME TO UPDATE WED NIGHT- FRIDAY WITH WPC OR SUPERBLEND. WE`LL
ATTEMPT TO COMPLETE THAT PROCESS AROUND 630 AM.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...APPROACHING STRONG SHORT WAVE WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH FOCUSING SOME INFLOW SHOULD ALLOW PCPN TO REDEVELOP NORTHWARD
DURING THE DAY. WHILE SFC TEMPS AT TIMES MAY CAUSE LIGHTER PCPN TO
OCCUR AS RAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL HAVE TO BE A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER PCPN...AT LEAST JUST TO THE E OF I-95 AND IT WILL BE WET
SNOW. THEN THE QUESTION...WITH ABV FREEZING TEMPS... HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE. WE DONT KNOW FOR SURE BUT OUR GRIDS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
ADJACENT OFFICE COLLABORATION... WPC GUIDANCE...BLENDED SNOW RATIOS
AND WPC DAY 2 QPF. NO ADVY AT THIS TIME, THOUGH ITS STILL CONCEIVABLE
WE`LL EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADVISE FOR NNJ LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE UKMET/GGEM AND ECMWF ALL CONTINUE SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER
THAN THE GFS (BOTH 06Z GFS/NAM ARE DRY SUNDAY WHICH IS DISTURBING
IN LIGHT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALOFT). ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS
OFF THE MID ATLC COAST MAY ALLOW MORE DEEPENING OF THE NEWD MOVG
SFC LOW.
POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT TOWARD THE POCONOS WHERE WE`RE LESS SURE
OF THE FCST SNOW AMOUNTS AND MY CONFIDENCE ON SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS HIGHEST IN NNJ. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE BECAUSE OF
LARGE MODEL SPREAD.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE I-95 EWD AND SHOULD ACCUMULATE
IN NNJ IF ITS SNOWING AT ALL. UKMET/GGEM/ECMWF WERE THE REASONING
FOR INCREASED POPS THERE. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.
MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW AROUND 12Z MONDAY WILL SOON BE DONE.
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW. CHILLY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...FAIR AND BEGINNING TO WARM UP A TAD....NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...GENERAL SW FLOW....BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED THIS
PART OF THE FCST SINCE IT WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY. WE SEE A
COMPLICATING WARM FRONT NEARBY.
NEXT TWO PGHS FROM THE DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY .
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW, WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT
DOES NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR NORTHWARD AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
AREA.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM BY THIS TIME, WHICH WILL
KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION RAIN. THERE COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
LTST LIMITED GUID SUGGESTS A LATER ONSET TIME OF PRECIP WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT KEEPING VFR LONGER INTO THE AFTN. HOWEVER, WILL WAIT
TO SEE THE ARRIVAL OF MORE OF THE MRNG GUID BEFORE MAKING CHANGES
TO THE TAFS. A DOWNWARD TREND IS ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY S, BUT IT
CUD END UP BEING A FEW HOURS LATER.
RAIN/SNOW WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST DURG THE AFTERNOON.
A QUICK CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR,
POSSIBLY IFR OR LOWER, AS RAIN/SNOW FALLS AT THE TERMINALS. KPHL
AND TERMINALS SOUTH AND EAST WILL SEE PRECIPITATION FIRST WITH A
GRADUAL SPREAD TO THE NORTH. KRDG, KABE AND KTTN LOOK TO REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ANY
REMAINING RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW, MAINLY KPHL AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SNOW. PRECIPITATION MAY LET UP FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE FILLING BACK IN. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS, MAINLY
TOWARDS THE COAST.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY-EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR, LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR FOR A
TIME IN MOSTLY SNOW VCNTY KACY. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY 15-25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING W-NW WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 ROSE ABOVE 5 FT AN HOUR AGO, THEN CAME BACK DOWN BUT IS
HOVERING AROUND 5 FT ATTM. THEREFORE, HAVE OPTED TO RAISE SCA FLAG
FOR THE SRN CSTL WATERS ATTM.
AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT AND WE WILL
SEE WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL START
TO BUILD AND WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FEET. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THIS IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AND WE
HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING AT 22Z. THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL START ON THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY AT 03Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND GALE FORCE GUSTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE STARTING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND WE HAVE KEPT THE GALE WATCH IN
THOSE AREAS AND HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE FOR THE SNJ
AND DE ATLC WATERS. SINCE THERE WAS STILL UNCERTAINTY AT 330 AM,
HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO SUNDAY.
ODDS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE NEED TO CONVERT THIS WATCH TO AN SCA IN A
FUTURE FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE...AN SCA SHOULD EASILY VERIFY IN LOWER DE BAY AND THE NNJ
WATERS. THE SCA CONDITIONS LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT AND SO AN SCA
SHOULD BE NEEDED.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...DIMINISHING WIND AND HEADLINES NOT
LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
633 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COOL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S. WARM AND WET CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
SPRAWLED OUT MID/UPPER LOW WILL PINWHEEL THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS TO OUR
LOCAL AREA. BEST CVA AND LOW LEVEL FGEN WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A STRAY SPRINKLE OR FLURRY COULD REACH
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT THIS APPEARS LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
ONTARIO SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO FEED A STEADY SUPPLY OF
COOL/DRY/STABLE AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES GIVEN ABSENCE OF
ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW/THETA-E RIDGE
FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STUBBORN DRY
LAYER BOTH NEAR THE SURFACE AND AROUND 700-800MB. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR TODAY BUT LATEST HI-RES
MODELS...SUPPORTED BY LATEST RADAR MOSAIC/SURFACE OBS...SUGGEST EVEN
THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS. DO EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
THOUGH AND WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND -6C...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
STICK AROUND TONIGHT BUT COLD AIRMASS WILL STILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S PER LATEST RAW AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.
DO GET A BRIEF SHOT OF SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING 850MB TEMPS CLOSE TO -10C. A FEW LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUR N/NE BUT CORE OF COLDEST AIR REMAINS
TO OUR NORTHEAST AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR THAT WILL MAKE SIGNIFICANT CUTS INTO LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT. SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THOUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S AND LOWS AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK.
STARK PATTERN CHANGE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DAMPEN
EASTWARD...REPLACED BY DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A FAIRLY ABRUPT WARMUP FOR OUR LOCAL AREA AS W/SW FLOW DEVELOPS
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH AND PUSHES 850MB TO NEAR +10C BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUT DIFFER IN TIMING AND LOCATION.
GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF OUR CWA UNTIL MAIN PV ANOMALY/SURFACE LOW EJECT NORTHEAST
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AND WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS TUES WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES LATER IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
SURFACE OBS SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. HRRR HAS SHOWN THESE CIGS FOR SEVERAL RUNS
OVERNIGHT AND STILL ADVECTS THE CLOUDS SOUTHWEST INTO KSBN
THIS MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO MVFR GROUP GIVEN LOW LEVEL
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND TRAJECTORIES INTO KSBN. HRRR MIXES
LOW CLOUDS BY MID MORNING BUT VFR CIGS PERSIST REST OF PERIOD.
WINDS GENERALLY 8 TO 12 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND AROUND
5 KNOTS THIS EVENING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LASHLEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
739 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE RADAR AND
POP EXPECTATIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING THE WINDS WELL STIRRED
ON NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 15 MPH. SOME SPRINKLES AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE FALLING
FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT MOST PLACES ARE STAYING DRY. THE
PCPN IS SLOWLY HELPING TO SATURATE THE DRY LOW LEVELS. EVEN SO...
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL QUITE LOW ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH 25 TO 30
DEGREE VALUES WEST AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE THEN ROLLS THROUGH THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY AS A OPEN...BUT STILL RATHER
SHARP...TROUGH. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND TROUGH
WILL TARGET KENTUCKY STARTING THIS MORNING AS ITS FIRST BATCH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE ARRIVAL OF
THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER ROBUST BATCH OF
ENERGY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A MODEL BLEND FOR WX
SPECIFICS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A STRONG
LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING OR
HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY NORTH...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES PAST THE CWA TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS
HAPPENS...LIGHT RAIN WILL START MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE FOR THE
NORTHERN PARTS EAST KENTUCKY WITH MORE SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN
POSSIBLE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE MAINLY A MORNING EVENT...THOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST
OF ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE FAR NORTH COULD MIX WITH A
TOUCH OF SNOW...BUT THIS WOULD MELT IMMEDIATELY WHEN HITTING THE
STILL WARM GROUND. LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY...SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AS THAT
UPPER ENERGY TARGETS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD ALSO HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...A STARK CONTRAST
TO THE WX OF MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK OR TWO.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE ONLY
FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE...MAINLY TO ENHANCE THE TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AT THE START
AND MORE RECENT MODEL TRENDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
OPEN UPPER WAVE WILL BE PULLING EAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW UPSLOPE TYPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT EASTERN KY SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
WILL THEN NOSE IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE
COULD MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SOME MAINLY PATCHY VALLEY FROST EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL
BRING A QUIET PERIOD FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ALSO DURING THE
PERIOD FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING WOULD
INTRODUCE SOME GUSTIER WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY.
OVERALL DRIEST DAYS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS COULD CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN.
WHILE SOME RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES FLATTENED.
WE THEN BEGIN TO FOCUS ON DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE
WEST CONUS...AS WE MOVE TOWARD MID AND LATE WEEK. MODELS WERE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT HAVE SINCE DIVERGED A BIT. ONE OF THE ISSUES IS
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE
00Z GFS CLOSES THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
DEEPENS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN KY. IT TAKES THIS SURFACE LOW
NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WHILE SWEEPING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN KY. WHILE THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN RELATION
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...OVERALL 12Z ECMWF
MATCHED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 00Z GFS SURFACE FEATURES. THE LATEST
00Z ECMWF IS QUITE DIFFERENT WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER WAVE
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE THIS WOULD SWING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN KY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS SAID A BIT LESS CONFIDENCE
EXISTS AT THIS POINT WITH RESPECT TO THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION...AND GIVEN THAT WILL STICK WITH MODEL BLEND THAT DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE LATEST SOLUTION. THEREFORE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ON FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS WARM AND MOIST
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURE WISE WE DO BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURE QUICKLY WARM ABOVE AVERAGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE AND WAA TAKES OVER...WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWER
70S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF KENTUCKY.
FOR THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A
MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE LOWEST VALUES SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE LOWER CIGS...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN AT TIMES TODAY...AGAIN MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST. A DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING PRECIP TO BE LESS OF CONCERN AT
KLOZ AND KSME WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...VCSH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE LOWER CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD...AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
951 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM ONTARIO. THE HIGH
WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE: SOME SC IS BEGINNING TO RE-DEVELOP AS OF MID
MORNING. WITH AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE FA THIS AFTN
WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN
ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWRS AND FLURRIES ACROSS SPCLY THE NRN HLF OF THE
FA. WITH LMTD LLVL MOISTURE...MORE SIG SN SHWR BAND ACTIVITY WILL
BE FEW AND FAR APART...BUT LATEST HRRR SIM RADAR REF OUTPUT DOES
SUGGEST ST LAWRENCE STREAMER BAND ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. GIVEN SFC
WINDS FROM ARND 300-310 DEG...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY SN
BAND ACTIVITY IS OVR THE FAR N XTNDG FROM THE THE ST JOHN VLY
ESE TO ARND KCAR. ANOTHER POSSIBLE AREA IS FROM THE KATAHDIN
HIGHLANDS ESE TO THE MILLINOCKET AND THEN NRN WASHINGTON COUNTY
AREAS. MOST LCTNS WILL EXPERIENCE LITTLE OR NO SN ACCUMULATION
THIS AFTN BUT A FEW LCTNS THAT REMAIN UNDER LONGER LIVED SN BANDS
COULD SEE LCLY UP TO AN INCH. OTHERWISE...SN SHWR ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY WIND DOWN TOWARD EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DYTM HTG.
LASTLY...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THIS AFTN TO...ATTM...
UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON INTERPOLATING FROM OBSVD LOWS TO
OBSVD 8 AM TEMPS TO AFTN HI TEMPS POSTED ARND 4 PM.
ORGNL DISC: SOME CLOUDS DROPPING IN FROM CANADA ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS MOVING SE. FURTHER BACK TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE,
ANOTHER PLUME SETTING UP TO DROP SE. SATELLITE WV LOOP SHOWED
UPPER TROF SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES EARLIER ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW 0F ACROSS THE NW REGION SUCH AS CLAYTON
LAKE HITTING -4F AS OF 10Z(6 AM). ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO LINE
UP THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING CLOUDS TO FILL ACROSS
THE NORTH TODAY W/SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. NW PICKING UP AS
KFVE WAS GUSTING TO 20 MPH. NW WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MUCH COLDER TODAY AND BREEZY.
COLD AIR ADVECTING IN FROM CANADA WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPS
TODAY AND WELL BELOW NORMAL. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 20 MPH
W/SOME HIGH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
AS WELL STATED BY THE DAYCREW, SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION, INCLUDING BANGOR TO THE COAST W/THE NW DOWNSLOPE
WIND. ACROSS THE N AND W, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 800MBS
WILL SET UP SOME CLOUDS AND COLD FLOW COMING OFF OPEN ST. LAWRENCE
WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR STREAMERS. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME SB CAPE AROUND 40 JOULES BUT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. THE HRRR 3KM AND HIGH RES NAM SHOWED SOME
SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR N AND W. DECIDED TO GO W/20% POPS AND USE
SNOW SHOWER WORDING FOR THE WX ELEMENT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HIT UPPER
LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
CANADA. CLEARING SKIES AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED W/THE
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT. INVERSION SETTING UP
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES HITTING THE
SINGLE NUMBERS W/AREAS ACROSS THE N AND W HITTING BELOW 0F
ESPECIALLY THE LOW LYING AREAS. LOWER TEENS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST LOCALES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH
EVEN THE LATEST EC FURTHER EAST. THIS, ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT
MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES TAKE THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA, NECESSITATED ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/QPF/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MAINE AND
THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH DRY, ALBEIT UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART INTO TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FROM KCAR TO KFVE AS SOME MVFR CIGS COULD SET UP
TODAY.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
MAINLY KBGR/KBHB. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR OUTER WATERS THROUGH 8 PM. GUSTS TO 25 KT OCCURRING ATTM PER
THE BUOYS AND WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS WERE RUNNING 4-6 FT. CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW SCA BY THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM CANADA AND WIND DROP OFF.
DAYCREW HAD THIS HANDLED WELL.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED
TO 1 TO 3 NM IN SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
636 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER
THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME CLOUDS DROPPING IN FROM CANADA ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS MOVING SE. FURTHER BACK TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE, ANOTHER
PLUME SETTING UP TO DROP SE. SATELLITE WV LOOP SHOWED UPPER TROF
SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES EARLIER ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW 0F ACROSS THE NW REGION SUCH AS CLAYTON
LAKE HITTING -4F AS OF 10Z(6 AM). ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO LINE
UP THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING CLOUDS TO FILL ACROSS
THE NORTH TODAY W/SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. NW PICKING UP AS
KFVE WAS GUSTING TO 20 MPH. NW WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MUCH COLDER TODAY AND BREEZY.
COLD AIR ADVECTING IN FROM CANADA WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPS
TODAY AND WELL BELOW NORMAL. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 20 MPH
W/SOME HIGH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
AS WELL STATED BY THE DAYCREW, SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION, INCLUDING BANGOR TO THE COAST W/THE NW DOWNSLOPE
WIND. ACROSS THE N AND W, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 800MBS
WILL SET UP SOME CLOUDS AND COLD FLOW COMING OFF OPEN ST. LAWRENCE
WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR STREAMERS. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME SB CAPE AROUND 40 JOULES BUT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. THE HRRR 3KM AND HIGH RES NAM SHOWED SOME
SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR N AND W. DECIDED TO GO W/20% POPS AND USE
SNOW SHOWER WORDING FOR THE WX ELEMENT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HIT UPPER
LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
CANADA. CLEARING SKIES AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED W/THE
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT. INVERSION SETTING UP
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES HITTING THE
SINGLE NUMBERS W/AREAS ACROSS THE N AND W HITTING BELOW 0F
ESPECIALLY THE LOW LYING AREAS. LOWER TEENS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST LOCALES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH
EVEN THE LATEST EC FURTHER EAST. THIS, ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT
MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES TAKE THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA, NECESSITATED ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/QPF/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MAINE AND
THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH DRY, ALBEIT UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART INTO TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FROM KCAR TO KFVE AS SOME MVFR CIGS COULD SET UP
TODAY.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
MAINLY KBGR/KBHB. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR OUTER WATERS THROUGH 8 PM. GUSTS TO 25 KT OCCURRING ATTM PER
THE BUOYS AND WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS WERE RUNNING 4-6 FT. CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW SCA BY THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM CANADA AND WIND DROP OFF.
DAYCREW HAD THIS HANDLED WELL.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED
TO 1 TO 3 NM IN SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
813 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
8AM UPDATE...
INITIAL DRY AIR AND DRY SLOT MOIVING IN WILL KEEP PREIP ON THE
LOWER SIDE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR ACUMULATING
SNOW IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF TUCKER AND GARRETT NEXT FEW HOURS.
ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS OVER AREA TO BE MORE INLINE WITH HRRR FOR REST
OF DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHGS TO SKY COVER BASED ON SATELLITE/NEAR
TERM MODELS FOR THE ERLY MRNG UPDATE. PREVIOUS...A CLOSED UPR LOW
ACRS THE MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SE TODAY. LOW PRES IS
PROGGED ACRS THE SERN CONUS TODAY...WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROF
EXTENDING N INTO WRN PA. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA S
OF PIT THIS MRNG. EXPECTING SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV AND
MD...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE AS BOUNDARY LYR TEMPS
WARM.
SFC TEMPS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES TO PRECLUDE
SNOW ACCUMULATION...WITH 2-4 INCHES PSBL IN THE WV/MD RIDGES WHERE
COLDER TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN...AND HIGHER QPF IS FCST.
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFO/S. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE PCPN
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH VRY DRY AIR IN PLACE...SO MAINTAINED A
DCRG S-N POP GRADIENT.
PREFERED THE NAM/HRRR/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEAR TERM FCST WAS UPDATED USING A
BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PCPN SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE SUPPORT EXITS. THE
UPR LOW IS PROGGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROF SUN AS COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO
CROSS THE UPR OH VLY RGN LATE SUN AND SUN NGT. THIS SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT SNOW...WITH RAIN MIXING IN DURING THE DAY WITH A
SUFFICIENTLY WARM BOUNDARY LYR...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END MON
MRNG AS THE TROF EXITS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
A CROSSING WARM FRONT IN ZONAL FLOW SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS
TUE...AND SHOWER CHCS MAINLY N OF PIT WHERE MORE FAVORABLE
MOISTURE AND UPR SUPPORT IS PROGGED. AFTER BELOW AVG TEMPS TO
START...READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LVLS BY TUE. THE
SHORT TERM GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING ADJUSTED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA LINE WEDNESDAY IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...UNTIL A
DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS LOW PRESSURE AND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP BEST RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
HEIGHTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF APPROACHING CENTRAL PLAINS
SYSTEM...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY. INCREASING
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH FROPA ON FRIDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN WORK INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING. BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM
PITTSBURGH SOUTH FROM NEAR 12Z TO 20Z...WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH 12-15Z...WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR INTO MID AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT THAT
SHOULD END SIGNIFICANT PRECIP 21Z-00Z. MVFR SHOULD THEN REMAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NORTHERN PORTS OF KFKL AND KDUJ VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY UNDER LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ512>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1139 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE STATE
LATE SUNDAY...THEN BE REPLACED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK SHIELD OF RASN IN SOUTHWESTERN PA.
MOST REPORTS IMPLY ANY RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIXED TURNS TO SNOW IF IT
GETS STEADIER. SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REPORTS AS OF 11 AM
MOSTLY FROM SOMERSET TO ADAMS COUNTY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER.
RADAR IMPLIES SNOW AND RASN TRYING TO MOVE UP THE SOUTH MOUNTAINS
AND SHOULD GET INTO JOHNSTOWN AND ALTOONA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. VERY LIGHT.
CENTRAL AREAS ARE SEEING THE SUN THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND IN THE
NORTH ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER IT IS SUNNY. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE THE 30S AND 40S. IN AREAS OF LIGHT SN/RASN THEY WILL
FALL AS THE DEW POINTS ARE QUITE LOW.
NCEP 3KM HRRR IS QUITE WARM SO OUTSIDE OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOWS
RAIN AS PTYPE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AND IT KEEPS ALL THE
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
SO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RASN FREE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE TREND IN THE HRRR CONTINUES IN THE NAM AND SREF...MOST OF THE
QPF STAYS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND LITTLE OR NO
QPF TO THE NORTH. THUS BEST CHANCE RASN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY IS ABOUT 1.5 COUNTIES DEEP ALONG THE MARYLAND BORDER.
DUE TO LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR AND LACK OF SOLAR RADIATION ALL THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW SHORTLY AFTER DARK. THE SREF 3-HOUR
POPS PEAK IN THE 00 TO 03 UTC RANGE AND FALL OFF FAST AFTERWARDS.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO. BEST CHANCES OF 1
OR MORE INCHES LIKELY IN THE LAURELS AND SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
POINTS TO THE EAST.
SUNDAY DURING THE DAY...SOME FLURRIES/SNIZZLE LINGERS IN EASTERN
AREAS. POPS LOWER DURING DAY AS THE ANEMIC SLOW SNEAKS OFF THE
COAST.
THE COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW TRIGGER SOME SNOW IN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SUNDAY IN THE SREF. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.
KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LVL TROF AXIS WILL SWING THRU CENTRAL PA SUN NIGHT...LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SNOW SHOWERS...ESP OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WX AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN WAKE OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW EAST OF NEW
ENG. AIR MASS CROSSING THE GRT LKS SHOULD BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SCT -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU MONDAY.
RAPID MODERATION EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS
OUT AND IS REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE E COAST. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE PLACEMENT OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A PERIOD OF DRY WX APPEARS
LIKELY MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SFC RIDGE...BUT
AFTER THAT LATEST ECENS SUPPORTS THE CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THE REST
OF WEEK GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FRONT. LATEST GEFS/ECENS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY...AS E COAST RIDGE WEAKENS
AND SIG SHORTWAVE WORKS EAST THRU THE GRT LKS.
AFTER SOME CHILLY WX EARLY IN THE WEEK...ALL SIGNALS ARE FOR ABV
NORMAL TEMPS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS DEEP SW FLOW DRAWS MILDER
AIR INTO PA.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR AND SOME MVFR IN SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. MOST AREAS WILL
STAY VFR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE MVFR WILL IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN/SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH.
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IN SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DECREASES AS THE STORM SLIPS OUT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SUNDAY MORE VFR. COULD SEE SOME MVFR AS SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN...MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST IN SNOW.
SUN-MON...BECOMING BREEZY...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SW IN WESTERN
MTS.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW MTNS. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
820 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE STATE
LATE SUNDAY...THEN BE REPLACED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE DAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE LOW-
LEVEL COLD AIR. AN ANTICYCLONE TO OUR NORTH AND SOME LATE SEASON
COLD AIR COMBINED WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN/SNOW INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MOSTLY SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS PENNSYLVANIA
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN CLOSER TO THE MARYLAND BORDER.
THE HRRR AND SREF TEND TO KEEP THE RAIN/SNOW CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
PA AND OF COURSE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. IN MOST SOUTHERN AREAS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OR RAIN MIXED
WITH WET SNOW.
FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE NY BORDER SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE SUN
AT TIMES UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN UP LATER TODAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM ARND 32F OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
SOMERSET CO...TO THE M40S ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE IS LIKELY...ESP EARLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS NCEAR 3KM EFS IMPLIES 60 TO 90 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND 50 TO 70
CHANCE OF ABOUT 3 INCHES NEARER THE MD BORDER....
G SCALE FORCING WEAKENS TONIGHT...AS JET ENTRANCE AND ASSOC FGEN
FORCING WEAKEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BULK OF MDL GUIDANCE
POINTING TOWARD A DRY NIGHT OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...EASTERLY FLOW/OROGRAPHIC FORCING COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG THE MD BORDER COULD SUPPORT A BIT OF LINGERING LGT
SNOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TONIGHT DOWN
THERE SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THRU SUNDAY...TRACKING
UPPER LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE PHASING WITH N STREAM
SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PHASING AND ASSOC COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR TOO LATE TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT OF PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY FROM DEVELOPING COASTAL. THE MORE PROBABLE
SCENARIO WILL BE A MAINLY DRY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SUN NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF AXIS. ANY VERY LIGHT
PRECIP THAT OCCURS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LVL TROF AXIS WILL SWING THRU CENTRAL PA SUN NIGHT...LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SNOW SHOWERS...ESP OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WX AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN WAKE OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW EAST OF NEW
ENG. AIR MASS CROSSING THE GRT LKS SHOULD BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SCT -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU MONDAY.
RAPID MODERATION EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS
OUT AND IS REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE E COAST. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE PLACEMENT OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A PERIOD OF DRY WX APPEARS
LIKELY MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SFC RIDGE...BUT
AFTER THAT LATEST ECENS SUPPORTS THE CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THE REST
OF WEEK GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FRONT. LATEST GEFS/ECENS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY...AS E COAST RIDGE WEAKENS
AND SIG SHORTWAVE WORKS EAST THRU THE GRT LKS.
AFTER SOME CHILLY WX EARLY IN THE WEEK...ALL SIGNALS ARE FOR ABV
NORMAL TEMPS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS DEEP SW FLOW DRAWS MILDER
AIR INTO PA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THERE
ARE SOME PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS BELOW THE HIGHER CLOUD DECK
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE HAVE CAUSED
SPORADIC MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT SOME SITES /KBFD AND KJST/
OVERNIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE FROM SW-NE
DURING THE DAY TODAY. HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
SNOW MOVING INTO KJST AROUND NOON...AND SOME LIGHTER SNOW INTO
KAOO...KMDT AND KLNS MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AREAS REMAIN
VFR. LOOK FOR SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON.
AT THIS POINT...EASTERN AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE RESTRICTIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM...WITH WESTERN AREAS SEEING MORE
SNOW SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST IN SNOW.
SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING BREEZY...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SW IN
WESTERN MTS.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW MTNS. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1023 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW BEING LOCATED IN OUR
SOUTHEAST CWA AT THE MOMENT...THE RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY HAS FIZZLED
OUT...AND CLOUDS HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY.
THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE GULF CUTTING OFF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STABILIZING THE MIDLEVELS...PLUS THE LACK OF
SYNPOTIC FORCING ALOFT. RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN IN SRN KY
MOVING EAST...AND THE HRRR AND NAM TRY TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH AFTERNOON FROPA...BUT THIS IS
LIKELY OVERDONE. POPS WILL BE LOWERED WITH THE MORNING
UPDATE...KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOST SPOTS...AND TEMPERATURES
RAISED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LACK OF CLOUDS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016
BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE
HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS/PALMER DIVIDE
AREA...WITH SUNSHINE FILLING IN BEHIND. MOST OF THIS LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE GONE BY NOON...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS 12Z DENVER
SOUNDING WAS STILL QUITE UNSTABLE. IN FACT...A FEW CUMULUS ALREADY
POPPING UP WHERE MORE SUNSHINE HAS OCCURRED.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM TODAY WITH THE REINFORCING COLD
AIR SHOT LAST NIGHT. MAY NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
SNOW COVERED AREAS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS CONTINUES ITS
GRIP ON OUR WEATHER THIS MORNING. STRONG CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
TROUGH HAS DRIVEN ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR DOWN
FROM WYOMING AND ACRS NERN COLORADO DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
RADAR IS CURRENTLY DETECTING A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL
FROM THE FRONT RANGE IN NRN LARIMER COUNTY TO CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTY. HOWEVER...ONLY THE FORT COLLINS OBSERVATION SITE HAS
INDICATED ANY SNOW REACHING THE GROUND AS OF YET. NAM AND WRF
MODELS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS BAND
OF PRECIP MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND OVER THE DENVER
METRO AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NAM AND WRF INDICATE
UPWARDS OF 0.2 INCH OF SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA AS WELL AS ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE ACRS ERN DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES BY 15Z
THIS MORNING. A LOT OF FUSS ABOUT A DUSTING OF SNOW...HOWEVER
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...MODELS INDICATED NOTHING OF THE SORT. SO
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ACRS THE NERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
MORNING. HAVE ALSO TRENDED WINDS ON THE PLAINS TO A N-NELY
COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WEAKENING AS THEY TURN TO A SELY DIRECTION...
WHILE FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS WINDS ARE FCST TO BECOME NWLY AND
INCREASE IN SPEED. SHOULD ALSO SEE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THIS LATEST SURGE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
TODAY NOT MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION. LOOK FOR ONLY MID 30S/LOWER 40S ON THE PLAINS AND
GENERALLY 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. OH YES...THE FEW REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD PRETTY MUCH COME TO
AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRYING ALOFT.
TONIGHT...CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF MIN TEMPS WELL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS COLORADO ON SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY MONDAY...THE
SNOW WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE BIG WARMING
ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF
30-40KT SO COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER EXPOSED EAST
SLOPES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE QUITE VARIED IN THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL THE
STRONGEST WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
BY LATE WEDNEDAY. THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW
OVER NEBRASKA WHILE GFS SOLUTIONS IS PAINTING AN IN BETWEEN
SOLUTION AS AN OPEN WAVE. WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE IN THIS
PERIOD AS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A PERIOD OF PRECIP ALONG WITH
DROPPING TEMPERATURES WITH COLD FRONT. IF THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS
CORRECT COULD HAVE ANOTHER SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE
EAST SLOPES. ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT ILS
APPROACHES AT KDEN DUE TO SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL STILL THINK MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AS AIRMASS DRIES. WINDS A BIT CHALLENGING TOO...BUT WITH
ENOUGH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION THE NORTHERLY WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT DEVELOPING BY 18Z-20Z. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO NORMAL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 01Z-02Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAJRENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
545 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO
SUNDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN
PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A
GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THE SAME TIME. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE
AREAS WHERE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING AND THE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN THICKER. IN ADDITION, QUITE THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE CURRENT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM LIFTING TO MUCH FARTHER NORTH. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH SOME
SNOW MIXING IN FOR SOME AREAS AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS TAKING
PLACE. THE SNOW SEEMS TO OCCUR MORE WITH HIGHER RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES. IN ADDITION, THE LEADING EDGE OF THE VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS RESULTING IN ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND WE HAVE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG THEREFORE IT WAS NOT ADDED TO THE FORECAST
ATTM /NOWCAST HAS IT MENTIONED/.
OTHERWISE, LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THE NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A BAND OF 700-800 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH ABOUT
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME UPTICK IN THE
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY FOR A TIME, AND IF THIS OCCURS SNOW MAY
BECOME THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR AREAS UNDER ANY HEAVIER BAND.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NONE.
AN INITIAL WAVE AND ITS LIFT LOOKS TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT,
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF AS WELL LATE.
THE POPS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO FINE TUNE THE NORTHERN GRADIENT SOME
AND ALSO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ON SUN, POPS WILL INCREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BEGINS ITS
NEWD TREK. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER SRN AND ERN AREAS. LTST GUID
HAS BROUGHT PRECIP FURTHER WWD THIS CYCLE, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A SHARP CUTOFF AND ITS STILL A QUESTION AS TO WHERE THIS WILL
OCCUR. DON`T EXPECT VERY MUCH, IF ANY OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS.
AGAIN, TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL, SIMILAR TODAY, SO UNLESS PRECIP FALLS
HARD, ITS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY RAIN DURG THE DAY OR A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX THAT WOULD STICK MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES, CARS ETC. THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ITS TOUGH DURG THE DAY TO GET APPRECIABLE SNOW DUE TO
THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE UNLESS IT COMES DOWN HARD. THE BEST CHCS FOR
THE HARD FALLING SNOW WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE CST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE
EVENING HOURS. MONDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH A BREEZY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW. CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UP TICK. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO ALL THE AREA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND
FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES...ITS BEEN VERY WARM SO FAR THIS MONTH...6 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW A BRIEF COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK BEFORE IT WARMS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END. FOR
REFERENCE, THE NORMALS FOR PHILLY DURING THE PERIOD ARE LOW TO MID
50S AND MID 30S. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE
WARMING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION...THIS EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES THREE PRECIPITATION
REFERENCES. THE FIRST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITTLE IF
ANY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE SECOND REFERENCE IS MIDWEEK ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. THE THIRD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME
WITH FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
WINDS...NORTH WINDS MAINLY 10 OR LESS SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING
NORTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY ON MONDAY. THE WINDS, 10 OR LESS, WILL
START TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THEY COULD GUST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEK.
IMPACTS...NOTHING WIDESPREAD SHAPING UP ATTM. WHILE WE COULD SEE
SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE SNOW, THEY SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ATTM, IMPACTS APPEAR THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. WE COULD SEE SOME MORNING SPRING FOG LATER IN
THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT IT`T TOO SOON TO DETERMINE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A TIME
OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM KPHL ON SOUTH AND EASTWARD THIS EVENING. AN
AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE STEADIEST JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF KPHL /DRY FOR KRDG, KABE AND KTTN/. KMIV AND KACY HAVE THE
GREATER CHANCE OF HAVING MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. OUR CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER ON THE VISIBILITY AS THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY OVERALL
MAY BE RATHER LIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, HOWEVER FAVORING
NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SUNDAY...VFR CEILINGS NEAR AND NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL OVERALL, WITH
LOWER CEILINGS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE
SHIFTS WESTWARD SOME. AS A RESULT, RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED
FROM NEAR KPNE-KPHL-KILG ON EASTWARD WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
AWHILE MOSTLY AT KMIV AND KACY. OUR CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE
HOWEVER WITH THE IMPACTS AND TIMING AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR, LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR FOR A TIME IN
MOSTLY SNOW VCNTY KACY. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
15- 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WATERS THRU THE PD DUE
TO INCREASING WIND AND SEAS AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
CAROLINAS, MOVES OFF THE CST AND THEN UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THU
SUN. ATTM, IT DOES NOT APPEAR GALE CRITERIA WILL BE MET, SO THE
GALE WATCH IS BEING DROPPED.
OUTLOOK...
SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FAVORED WINDS LESS THAN 35 KT. WENT WITH A
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER BAY.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. A SCA
LOOKS LIKELY. MAYBE GALES MONDAY EVENING.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...DIMINISHING WIND AND HEADLINES NOT
LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SCA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
EXPECT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY FAVORABLE,
AND WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL OFF SHORE, WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS OUR LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR BOTH THE SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER AS A
SLIGHT SHIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD
INCREASE THE THREAT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN, PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY, MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY, AND INTO QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH OF OUR
AREA AT THE SAME TIME. THE COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN LOW,
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WHAT LOOKS TO BE A BUSY RADAR SCOPE IS A BIT MISLEADING AS MUCH OF
THE PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS AND IT KEEPS MOST
OF THE PRECIP THRU THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT S AND E OF PHL.
HAVE TRENDED THE FCST AND POPS IN THAT DIRECTION.
ALSO, WITH TEMPS INTO THE 40S IN THE AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE PRECIP, HAVE KEPT IT MAINLY LIQUID RAIN THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVE, BEFORE A MIX AND CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
OVER NRN AREAS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD LATER TONIGHT.
ALL OF THIS PRECIP IS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CST TONIGHT AND THEN
NEWD OFF THE MID-ATLC SEABOARD THRU MON. THERE APPEARS TO BE A LULL
IN THE ACTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCD WITH THE LOW
ITSELF INCREASES ON SUN.
HAVE GENLY LOWERED POPS ACRS THE BOARD, ESPECIALLY N AND W, WITH THE
CUTOFF ACRS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HIGHEST POPS ARE S AND E.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ON SUN, POPS WILL INCREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BEGINS ITS
NEWD TREK. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER SRN AND ERN AREAS. LTST GUID
HAS BROUGHT PRECIP FURTHER WWD THIS CYCLE, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A SHARP CUTOFF AND ITS STILL A QUESTION AS TO WHERE THIS WILL
OCCUR. DON`T EXPECT VERY MUCH, IF ANY OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS.
AGAIN, TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL, SIMILAR TODAY, SO UNLESS PRECIP FALLS
HARD, ITS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY RAIN DURG THE DAY OR A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX THAT WOULD STICK MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES, CARS ETC. THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ITS TOUGH DURG THE DAY TO GET APPRECIABLE SNOW DUE TO
THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE UNLESS IT COMES DOWN HARD. THE BEST CHCS FOR
THE HARD FALLING SNOW WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE CST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE
EVENING HOURS. MONDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH A BREEZY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW. CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ROMAIN IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UP TICK. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
QUEBEC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO
ALL THE AREA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND FEATURE COOLER
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES...ITS BEEN VERY WARM SO FAR THIS MONTH...6 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW A BRIEF COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK BEFORE IT WARMS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END. FOR
REFERENCE, THE NORMALS FOR PHILLY DURING THE PERIOD ARE LOW TO MID
50S AND MID 30S. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE
WARMING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION...THIS EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES THREE PRECIPITATION
REFERENCES. THE FIRST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITTLE IF
ANY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE SECOND REFERENCE IS MIDWEEK ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. THE THIRD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME
WITH FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
WINDS...NORTH WINDS MAINLY 10 OR LESS SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING
NORTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY ON MONDAY. THE WINDS, 10 OR LESS, WILL
START TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THEY COULD GUST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEK.
IMPACTS...NOTHING WIDESPREAD SHAPING UP ATTM. WHILE WE COULD SEE
SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE SNOW, THEY SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ATTM, IMPACTS APPEAR THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. WE COULD SEE SOME MORNING SPRING FOG LATER IN
THE WEEK THAT COULD IMPAIR VISIBILITIES. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT IT`T TOO SOON TO DETERMINE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS ARE GENLY EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD FOR THE NRN AND WRN TAF
SITES. FOR THE I-95 TAF SITES, IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY VFR. THERE IS
A CHC SOME HEAVIER PRECIP COULD WORK IN AND BRIEFLY DROP CONDS TO
MVFR THIS LATE THIS AFTN OR EVE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE
IS A BETTER CHC OF SOME MVFR CIGS SUN AFTN AS LOW PRES MOVES UP THE
MID ATLC CST.
FOR THE SRN AND ERN TAF SITES, VFR CONDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR
THIS EVE INTO ERLY OVERNIGHT. THEN THERE SHUD BE A LULL DURG THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE MVFR RETURNS DURG THE DAY ON SUN.
THE BEST CHCS FOR PRECIP ARE S AND E OF KPHL. IT LOOKS TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY -RA BUT SOME -SN OR SOME COMBINATION CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY DURG THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ON SUN A NE WIND WILL INCREASE AND CUD GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KTS
ESPECIALLY FOR KTTN AND POINTS S AND E.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR, LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR FOR A TIME IN
MOSTLY SNOW VCNTY KACY. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS COULD BE GUSTY 15-
25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WATERS THRU THE TAF PD
DUE TO INCREASING WIND AND SEAS AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
CAROLINAS, MOVES OFF THE CST AND THEN UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THU
SUN. ATTM, IT DOES NOT APPEAR GALE CRITERIA WILL BE MET, SO THE
GALE WATCH IS BEING DROPPED.
OUTLOOK...
SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FAVORED WINDS LESS THAN 35 KT. WENT WITH A
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER BAY.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. A SCA
LOOKS LIKELY. MAYBE GALES MONDAY EVENING.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...DIMINISHING WIND AND HEADLINES NOT
LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SCA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
EXPECT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY FAVORABLE,
AND WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL OFF SHORE, WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS OUR LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR BOTH THE SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER AS A
SLIGHT SHIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD
INCREASE THE THREAT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
113 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA
CAPES THIS EVENING. THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHENS
IN ITS PASSAGE EAST OF CAPE COD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. THAT HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT FORMS FROM NEAR LONG ISLAND
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
AFTN, SO HAVE TRENDED BACK ONSET AND POPS A BIT DURG THE DAY.
THERE IS A BIT OF A DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE HRRR AND THE NAM/GFS.
THE HRRR HAS LESS PRECIP COVERAGE DURG THE DAY TODAY (WHICH SEEMS
MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS), WHILE THE NAM AND
GFS REALLY WANT TO RAMP THINGS UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THERE IS A SWATH OF PRECIP BACK OF MD, BUT MUCH OF IT IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP CONFINED
OVER THE DELMARVA AND SERN NJ FROM LATE AFTN INTO THE EVE HOURS.
HAVE TRENDED THE FCST IN THIS DIRECTION.
ALSO, TEMPS HAVE RISEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY FCST.
WHILE THEY PROBABLY WON`T RISE MUCH FURTHER, HAVE OPTED TO
INTRODUCE MORE RAIN AND LESS SNOW AT LEAST THRU THE AFTN. IT IS
QUITE DIFFICULT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH SPRING SOLAR INSOLATION,
EVEN THRU CLOUDS TO GET FULL ON SNOW, UNLESS IT IS COMING DOWN
HARD. SO FAR, THAT IS NOT THE CASE, EVEN IN PLACES OVER MD, WHERE
PRECIP IS FALLING. TEMPS ACRS OUR AREA RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S TO
THE MID 40S.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN A STRAIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OR MIX
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE REMOVED THE SLEET FROM THE GRIDS AS THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER
ALOFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE MELTING AND WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE WE
OPTED TO STICK WITH JUST RAIN AND SNOW AT THIS JUNCTURE.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME HEAVIER BANDS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THE SET UP APPEARS TO
BE FROM AROUND WILMINGTON, DELAWARE THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
HOWEVER, THE GROUND IS FAIRLY WARM AND WITH THE STRONG SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR, SNOW WILL NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO AROUND
THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW REMAINS OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS TRENDING DRYER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW, WE HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE POPS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. WE CONTINUE TO MENTION
SOME CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT BUT FOCUS OUR POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND EVEN WITH THE OVERCAST
SKIES, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP QUITE A BIT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IF THE GEFS ENDS UP CORRECT IN CONSTANTLY FCSTG EAST OF ALL OTHER
MODELS THE PAST FEW DAYS INCLUDING THE SREF, EPS...IT WILL BE
QUITE NOTEWORTHY.
500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MIDWEST SUNDAY WILL CROSS THE
EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING. AN IMPT PIECE IN THIS FCST IS THE DVLPT
OF SIGNIFICANT HT FALLS IN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING SWINGING
PVA/PIVA NEWD THROUGH OUR THE DELMARVA AROUND 09Z/MONDAY IN THE
FORM OF A 160M 12 HR HFC. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS EARLY IN THE
WEEK AND BACKS TO SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WARMING
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST WHILE A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES
MOVE INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION.
TEMPERATURES: ITS BEEN VERY WARM SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MARCH...6 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW A BRIEF COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY
THIS WEEK BEFORE IT WARMS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEKS END. CALENDAR
DAY AVERAGES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THE FORECAST WAS MOSTLY
GFS MOS SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY NAM WAS
DISMISSED IN THE FCST PROCESS WHEN CONSIDERED AGAINST THE MULTI
MODEL AND WPC WETTER AND COOLER SUNDAY SCENARIO. A 50 50 BLEND
00Z/19 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT- MONDAY, THEREAFTER
THE 00Z/19 GFS MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY. THERE WAS NOT
TIME TO UPDATE WED NIGHT- FRIDAY WITH WPC OR SUPERBLEND. WE`LL
ATTEMPT TO COMPLETE THAT PROCESS AROUND 630 AM.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...APPROACHING STRONG SHORT WAVE WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH FOCUSING SOME INFLOW SHOULD ALLOW PCPN TO REDEVELOP NORTHWARD
DURING THE DAY. WHILE SFC TEMPS AT TIMES MAY CAUSE LIGHTER PCPN TO
OCCUR AS RAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL HAVE TO BE A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER PCPN...AT LEAST JUST TO THE E OF I-95 AND IT WILL BE WET
SNOW. THEN THE QUESTION...WITH ABV FREEZING TEMPS... HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE. WE DONT KNOW FOR SURE BUT OUR GRIDS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
ADJACENT OFFICE COLLABORATION... WPC GUIDANCE...BLENDED SNOW RATIOS
AND WPC DAY 2 QPF. NO ADVY AT THIS TIME, THOUGH ITS STILL CONCEIVABLE
WE`LL EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADVISE FOR NNJ LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE UKMET/GGEM AND ECMWF ALL CONTINUE SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER
THAN THE GFS (BOTH 06Z GFS/NAM ARE DRY SUNDAY WHICH IS DISTURBING
IN LIGHT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALOFT). ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS
OFF THE MID ATLC COAST MAY ALLOW MORE DEEPENING OF THE NEWD MOVG
SFC LOW.
POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT TOWARD THE POCONOS WHERE WE`RE LESS SURE
OF THE FCST SNOW AMOUNTS AND MY CONFIDENCE ON SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS HIGHEST IN NNJ. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE BECAUSE OF
LARGE MODEL SPREAD.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE I-95 EWD AND SHOULD ACCUMULATE
IN NNJ IF ITS SNOWING AT ALL. UKMET/GGEM/ECMWF WERE THE REASONING
FOR INCREASED POPS THERE. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.
MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW AROUND 12Z MONDAY WILL SOON BE DONE.
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW. CHILLY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...FAIR AND BEGINNING TO WARM UP A TAD....NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...GENERAL SW FLOW....BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED THIS
PART OF THE FCST SINCE IT WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY. WE SEE A
COMPLICATING WARM FRONT NEARBY.
NEXT TWO PGHS FROM THE DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY .
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW, WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT
DOES NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR NORTHWARD AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
AREA.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM BY THIS TIME, WHICH WILL
KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION RAIN. THERE COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
LTST LIMITED GUID SUGGESTS A LATER ONSET TIME OF PRECIP WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT KEEPING VFR LONGER INTO THE AFTN. HOWEVER, WILL WAIT
TO SEE THE ARRIVAL OF MORE OF THE MRNG GUID BEFORE MAKING CHANGES
TO THE TAFS. A DOWNWARD TREND IS ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY S, BUT IT
CUD END UP BEING A FEW HOURS LATER.
PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE CONFINED S AND E OF KPHL ATTM. ALSO
TEMPS ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. AS A RESULT,
HAVE CHANGED THE PREVAILING GROUPS IN THE TAFS TO -RA, WITH TEMPO
FOR SNRA. CONFIDENCE, EVEN IN THAT, DURG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IS
LOW. IF PRECIP COMES DOWN HARD ENOUGH THEN THERE COULD BE SOME
SNOW, BUT OTHERWISE, PROBABLY NOT.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ANY
REMAINING RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW, MAINLY KPHL AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SNOW. PRECIPITATION MAY LET UP FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE FILLING BACK IN. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS, MAINLY
TOWARDS THE COAST.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY-EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR, LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR FOR A
TIME IN MOSTLY SNOW VCNTY KACY. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY 15-25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING W-NW WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 ROSE ABOVE 5 FT AN HOUR AGO, THEN CAME BACK DOWN BUT IS
HOVERING AROUND 5 FT ATTM. THEREFORE, HAVE OPTED TO RAISE SCA FLAG
FOR THE SRN CSTL WATERS ATTM.
AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT AND WE WILL
SEE WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL START
TO BUILD AND WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FEET. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THIS IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AND WE
HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING AT 22Z. THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL START ON THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY AT 03Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND GALE FORCE GUSTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE STARTING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND WE HAVE KEPT THE GALE WATCH IN
THOSE AREAS AND HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE FOR THE SNJ
AND DE ATLC WATERS. SINCE THERE WAS STILL UNCERTAINTY AT 330 AM,
HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO SUNDAY.
ODDS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE NEED TO CONVERT THIS WATCH TO AN SCA IN A
FUTURE FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE...AN SCA SHOULD EASILY VERIFY IN LOWER DE BAY AND THE NNJ
WATERS. THE SCA CONDITIONS LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...GUSTY NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT AND SO AN SCA
SHOULD BE NEEDED.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...DIMINISHING WIND AND HEADLINES NOT
LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1257 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
UPDATED EARLIER TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN TODAY AS DEFORMATION
BAND OF RAIN HAS STAYED TO OUR NORTH...WITH NO FORCING TO LEND
ITSELF TO ANY RAIN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION TOMORROW...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE RADAR AND
POP EXPECTATIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING THE WINDS WELL STIRRED
ON NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 15 MPH. SOME SPRINKLES AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE FALLING
FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT MOST PLACES ARE STAYING DRY. THE
PCPN IS SLOWLY HELPING TO SATURATE THE DRY LOW LEVELS. EVEN SO...
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL QUITE LOW ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH 25 TO 30
DEGREE VALUES WEST AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE THEN ROLLS THROUGH THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY AS A OPEN...BUT STILL RATHER
SHARP...TROUGH. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND TROUGH
WILL TARGET KENTUCKY STARTING THIS MORNING AS ITS FIRST BATCH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE ARRIVAL OF
THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER ROBUST BATCH OF
ENERGY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A MODEL BLEND FOR WX
SPECIFICS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A STRONG
LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING OR
HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY NORTH...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES PAST THE CWA TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS
HAPPENS...LIGHT RAIN WILL START MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE FOR THE
NORTHERN PARTS EAST KENTUCKY WITH MORE SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN
POSSIBLE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE MAINLY A MORNING EVENT...THOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST
OF ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE FAR NORTH COULD MIX WITH A
TOUCH OF SNOW...BUT THIS WOULD MELT IMMEDIATELY WHEN HITTING THE
STILL WARM GROUND. LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY...SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AS THAT
UPPER ENERGY TARGETS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD ALSO HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...A STARK CONTRAST
TO THE WX OF MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK OR TWO.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE ONLY
FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE...MAINLY TO ENHANCE THE TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AT THE START
AND MORE RECENT MODEL TRENDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
OPEN UPPER WAVE WILL BE PULLING EAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW UPSLOPE TYPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT EASTERN KY SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
WILL THEN NOSE IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE
COULD MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SOME MAINLY PATCHY VALLEY FROST EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL
BRING A QUIET PERIOD FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ALSO DURING THE
PERIOD FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING WOULD
INTRODUCE SOME GUSTIER WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY.
OVERALL DRIEST DAYS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS COULD CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN.
WHILE SOME RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES FLATTENED.
WE THEN BEGIN TO FOCUS ON DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE
WEST CONUS...AS WE MOVE TOWARD MID AND LATE WEEK. MODELS WERE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT HAVE SINCE DIVERGED A BIT. ONE OF THE ISSUES IS
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE
00Z GFS CLOSES THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
DEEPENS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN KY. IT TAKES THIS SURFACE LOW
NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WHILE SWEEPING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN KY. WHILE THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN RELATION
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...OVERALL 12Z ECMWF
MATCHED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 00Z GFS SURFACE FEATURES. THE LATEST
00Z ECMWF IS QUITE DIFFERENT WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER WAVE
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE THIS WOULD SWING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN KY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS SAID A BIT LESS CONFIDENCE
EXISTS AT THIS POINT WITH RESPECT TO THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION...AND GIVEN THAT WILL STICK WITH MODEL BLEND THAT DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE LATEST SOLUTION. THEREFORE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ON FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS WARM AND MOIST
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURE WISE WE DO BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURE QUICKLY WARM ABOVE AVERAGE AS HEIGHTS
RISE AND WAA TAKES OVER...WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWER
70S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
AS WINDS SLOWLY TRANSITION FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WE
SHOULD SEE CIGS BORDERING ON IFR LATE TONIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE TO
COME DOWN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1237 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM ONTARIO. THE HIGH
WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE: SC HAS REMAINED SHALLOW WITH RELATIVELY DRY SFC-5
KFT AGL SOUNDINGS...SO WE BACKED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT FROM THE LAST
UPDATE...LMTG CHC SN SHWR POPS TO MAINLY NRN MTNS. CLD CVR WAS
ALSO REDUCED FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTN
COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE. OTHERWISE...BASED ON NOON OBS...WE
RAISED HI TEMPS A DEG OR TWO MSLY OVR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE
FA AND UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS INT ERLY EVE.
LASTLY...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THIS AFTN TO...ATTM...
UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON INTERPOLATING FROM OBSVD LOWS TO
OBSVD 8 AM TEMPS TO AFTN HI TEMPS POSTED ARND 4 PM.
ORGNL DISC: SOME CLOUDS DROPPING IN FROM CANADA ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS MOVING SE. FURTHER BACK TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE,
ANOTHER PLUME SETTING UP TO DROP SE. SATELLITE WV LOOP SHOWED
UPPER TROF SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES EARLIER ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW 0F ACROSS THE NW REGION SUCH AS CLAYTON
LAKE HITTING -4F AS OF 10Z(6 AM). ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO LINE
UP THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING CLOUDS TO FILL ACROSS
THE NORTH TODAY W/SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. NW PICKING UP AS
KFVE WAS GUSTING TO 20 MPH. NW WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MUCH COLDER TODAY AND BREEZY.
COLD AIR ADVECTING IN FROM CANADA WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPS
TODAY AND WELL BELOW NORMAL. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 20 MPH
W/SOME HIGH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
AS WELL STATED BY THE DAYCREW, SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION, INCLUDING BANGOR TO THE COAST W/THE NW DOWNSLOPE
WIND. ACROSS THE N AND W, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 800MBS
WILL SET UP SOME CLOUDS AND COLD FLOW COMING OFF OPEN ST. LAWRENCE
WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR STREAMERS. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME SB CAPE AROUND 40 JOULES BUT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. THE HRRR 3KM AND HIGH RES NAM SHOWED SOME
SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR N AND W. DECIDED TO GO W/20% POPS AND USE
SNOW SHOWER WORDING FOR THE WX ELEMENT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HIT UPPER
LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
CANADA. CLEARING SKIES AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED W/THE
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT. INVERSION SETTING UP
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES HITTING THE
SINGLE NUMBERS W/AREAS ACROSS THE N AND W HITTING BELOW 0F
ESPECIALLY THE LOW LYING AREAS. LOWER TEENS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST LOCALES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH
EVEN THE LATEST EC FURTHER EAST. THIS, ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT
MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES TAKE THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA, NECESSITATED ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/QPF/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MAINE AND
THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH DRY, ALBEIT UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART INTO TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FROM KCAR TO KFVE AS SOME MVFR CIGS COULD SET UP
TODAY.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
MAINLY KBGR/KBHB. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR OUTER WATERS THROUGH 8 PM. GUSTS TO 25 KT OCCURRING ATTM PER
THE BUOYS AND WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS WERE RUNNING 4-6 FT. CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW SCA BY THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM CANADA AND WIND DROP OFF.
DAYCREW HAD THIS HANDLED WELL.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED
TO 1 TO 3 NM IN SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
601 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TO START THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE
FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VLY/CENTRL FOOTHILLS
ATTM...AS HRRR SUGGESTED IT WOULD. THE AXIS OF PCPN E OF THE
BLURDG ATTM SHUD BE OVER THE ERN SHORE IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HRS...ANRD 00Z. UP TO THIS POINT...ANY SNOW HAS BEEN MINIMAL AND
ELEV DEPENDENT. AS SUN ANGLE LOWERS...PCPN HAVING A BETTER CHC
SURVIVING AS SNOW...BUT ITS FIGHTING A WARM BLYR. DO NOT BELIEVE
AT THIS POINT ANY ADDTL ADVY THRESHOLD ACCUMS WL OCCUR...OUTSIDE
OF THE COLD APLCNS.
BY TONIGHT DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...WITH THE LOWER LVLS
REMAINING FAIRLY SATURATED. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...HOWEVER LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE WORKS TO KEEP MOST OF THE
FORCING TO THE NORTH. WITH THE LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT...EXPECTING
THE PCPN INTENSITY TO TAPER OFF DRASTICALLY...BCMG VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW...OR EVEN PERIODS OF DRY WX. AS SUCH...NOT
ANTICIPATING TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF SNOW AMTS...ESP EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOWS ENERGY TRANSITIONS TO OFFSHORE
NC...WITH THE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENING AS IT PASSES TO THE EAST
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP LOW LVLS
MOIST...BUT THIS WILL IMPACT MORE SKY COVER THAN PRODUCING ANY
PCPN INITIALLY SUN AM. PROGRESSING DURING THE DAY...AS THE LOW
DEEPENS...LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW COULD IMPACT GENERALLY AREAS EAST OF
I-95 WHILE INCRSG NW FLOW TO THE WEST WILL PRODUCE CONTINUAL
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS REACHING THE
40S...EVEN IF YOU SEE SNOWFLAKES DURING THE DAY SUN TO THE
EAST...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUM.
THE SUBSIDENCE LAYER FINALLY WEAKENS AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROUGH
DIGS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SEND THRU A DECENT
SHORTWAVE LATE SUN/EARLY SUN NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE COULD TRIGGER
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SUN EVENING AND PSBL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...AGAIN WITH MINIMAL ACCUMS. HOWEVER...LOWS SUN NIGHT
SHOULD DROP BELOW FZ MOST PLACES...RESULTING IN ICY CONDITIONS
FROM THE RECENT PCPN.
THE LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN WHILE THE UPPER LVL TROUGH SWINGS OFF TO THE EAST. OUTSIDE OF
ANY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR
THE REGION DURING THE DAY MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESS TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER ON TUE OR WED
AND DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO THU NIGHT OR FRI. DRY CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS ON TUE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR
50S... INCREASING INTO THE UPR 60S AND 70S BY THU. LOW TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 40S TUE NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE 50S THU NIGHT.
LOW PRESS WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NE. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRI. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS PSBL WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT
HOW LONG IT WILL LAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN. ECMWF IS DRIER BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESS BUILDING FRI NIGHT... WHILE GFS KEEPS
PRECIP THROUGH SAT WITH A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPS FOR FRI WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE FROPA. BUT LIKELY
ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE IT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S...
SAT HIGH TEMPS STILL MILD...IN THE UPR 50S AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH THE HEAVIER
PCPN. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE RA THRU 21/21Z...WITH SNOW MIXING IN
THEREAFTER. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING A FULL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AT
ANY SITE. WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE NE.
PCPN TAPERS OFF BETWEEN 03-05Z...THOUGH CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO
REBOUND TO VFR...SOMETIME 06-08Z. THE VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
MVFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING...AND LINGERS FOR
MOST OF SUNDAY. PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS PSBL AGAIN LATE
SUN...MAINLY KDCA/KBWI/KMTN.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUN NIGHT AS THE PCPN EXITS THE REGION.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NW AS WELL...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE TERMINALS TUE INTO WED WITH HIGH
PRESS DOMINATING CONDITIONS OVER OUR REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS MINUS THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE
BAY/TIDAL POTOMAC. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SCA LVLS IN
THE PAST HOUR. WILL MONITOR THE TREND AND ADJUST THE SCA IF
NEEDED. EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEEPEN TO THE EAST...SO SCA IN EFFECT TONIGHT THRU SUN
FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. THIS SCA CONTINUES
INTO SUN NIGHT AND WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
MONDAY WITH INCRSG NW FLOW.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PSBL EXPECTED TUE INTO WED WITH WINDS BELOW
THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS OVER
OUR REGION.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ503-
504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ501-
503-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-
538-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532-533-
540>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ531.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...HTS/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/IMR
MARINE...SEARS/IMR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A STRATUS DECK INTO MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO IN
ITS WAKE. THIS AFTERNOON...AREAS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER
THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI AS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OVER
PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE AND SRN DELTA COUNTIES AIDED BY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THIN AND CELLULAR LOOK TO
THESE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SUGGEST THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIDED ON COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE HIGH-RES CANADIAN WHICH HAD LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SPREAD WEAK LIFT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/FAR NORTH
CWA. AS WINDS SHIFT WNW BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW-LVL
MOISTURE INCREASES AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN TO -10C
TO -11C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO WRN
UPPER MI AND THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES/ISOLD SHSN AS 85H TEMPS
LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE
SHARPER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE LAKE INTO
ONTARIO EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FROPA ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
HAVE AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES.
FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA SUN
EVENING INTO EARLY SUN NIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/EFFECT SNOW TO NW WIND SNOWBELTS. 850MB TEMPS ARE -10C
TO -12C AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THEN DROP TO -13C TO -15C LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS TURN WLY BY 00Z TUE. MOISTURE
IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...SO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MODELS
DEPICT 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS SUN
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS
DURING THE DAY MON. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S WHERE SNOW
FALLS AND HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 30 N TO THE UPPER 30S SCENTRAL.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AND
WILL MOVE ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS OR JUST S OF THE CWA
AT THE SFC. FGEN FORCING AND WAA ALONG THE SLOPED FRONT WILL ASSIST
IN PROVIDING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW BETWEEN 06Z AND 21Z TUE...MOST
AREAS WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW IN 3-6 HOURS. MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT
PLACEMENT OF SNOW DUE TO PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONT/FGEN/SHORTWAVE...DETAILS OF WHERE THE BEST SNOW FALL IS
UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z/19 GFS IS FARTHER N AND KEEPS THE WI BORDER AREAS
DRIEST (BUT STILL SEEING PRECIP) WHILE THE 00Z/19 ECMWF IS FARTHER S
AND KEEPS THE NRN TIER DRIEST. THE 12Z/19 NAM COMES IN BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF FOR PLACEMENT OF BEST PRECIP. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AND BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS POINT. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE THE GREATEST SNOW
FALLS...WHICH MAY BE DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND E...AND IF THAT FALLS IN 3-6 HOURS IT COULD BRIEFLY
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. SNOW LOOKS TO MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE
DAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE FAR SCENTRAL.
WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE WEEK...IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE WED NIGHT-FRI TIME FRAME (DEPENDING ON
MODEL). MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE THE BEST PRECIP (AROUND AN INCH OF QPF
WITH AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR MAKING SNOW THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE) ALONG OR
SE OF THE SERN BORDER OF THE CWA...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
TRENDING NW. A LOT OF VARIABLES AT PLAY FOR 5-6 DAYS OUT...SO WILL
JUST HAVE TO KEEP CLOSELY MONITORING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
WITH HIGH PRES SETTLING S ACROSS AREA FROM NRN ONTARIO...DRIER AIR
HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND E. UPSLOPE NE WINDS HAVE
RESULTED IN AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NCNTRL AND WRN UPR
MICHIGAN...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS AT KCMX AND KIWD THROUGH 20Z/21Z THEN CLOUDS DECREASING
TOWARD EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH
CROSSES LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN. SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
SHOULD FOLLOW...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLD THROUGH SUN MORNING SO
DID NOT MENTION IN TAF. EXPECT LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS IN
WAKE OF TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR.
OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY MAINLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS UNTIL E-NE WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1050 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.UPDATE...
A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN IS BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK
FOR TODAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
EXTEND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE PINE BELT REGION INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE MINOR WAVE AND WEAK
LIFT PASSING THROUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTN WITH
STEADY EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECK FROM NW TO SE...BUT HAVE KEPT THINGS
A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC ALONG/SE OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE BASED ON
LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THE COOLER MORNING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AND EXPECTATION FOR STRATUS TO BE MORE STUBBORN...HAVE REDUCED
HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...MOST TAF SITES WERE REPORTING IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED -SHRA WERE TRACKING EAST ALONG HWY 20 AND HWY 84.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DVLP ALONG WITH VFR CONDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THIS AFTN THROUGH
SUNDAY AS SKIES CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. 17/22/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO JUST
SOUTH OF VICKSBURG WITH A 1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS HAD A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN IOWA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING ITS BASE OVER THE OZARKS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL SWING EAST TODAY WHILE THE CLOSED LOW SINKS FARTHER SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP SEND THE
SURFACE HIGH SOUTH AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR AT SUNRISE AND BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BEFORE NOON. LOCAL
RADARS SHOWED A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING EAST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES AT 3AM. THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS POST
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING BUT THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. NORMAL HIGHS RUN FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. THE CAA TODAY WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS
WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MID 60S
EXPECTED SOUTHEAST. THE CLOSED LOW WILL DROP FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY NOON
SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH AND BECOME CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SURGE OF
COLD AIR INTO OUR CWA WITH THE 850MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM DROPPING
SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO DECOUPLE SUNDAY MORNING HINDERING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY
SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WIND
PROTECTED AND DRAINAGE AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. NORMAL MORNING LOWS RUN
IN THE MID 40S. THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IT WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME COLD STRATOCU TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
ALLOW THE WINDS TO DECOUPLE. THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK SUNDAY
NIGHT. MORNING LOWS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI WITH
MID 30S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FROST WILL BE MORE LIKELY
AREAWIDE BUT AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST. WL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO SINCE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. /22/
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK...SEASONABLY CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIGHT ATOP THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO START THE WORK
WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE STILL ONLY ABLE TO DELIVER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS HIGH SHOULD START TO TRANSITION TO OUR
EAST MONDAY NIGHT...BUT CALM WINDS POST SUNSET WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID
EVENING COOLING. IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES THE LATE NIGHT
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD LIMIT HOW FAR TEMPS COULD DROP BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BUT IN EASTERN ZONES GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S POSSIBLE. WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE FROST/LIGHT FREEZE
POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT IT IS PRUDENT TO HOLD OFF HIGHLIGHTING ANY
SLIGHT FROST THREAT YET FOR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE THE VERY COOL START TUESDAY THE DAY SHOULD EVOLVE QUITE
PLEASANTLY WITH BUILDING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...PLENTY
OF SUN...AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTING AMPLE BL MIXING. DIURNAL
RANGES OF 30+ DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY SPOTS...SUPPORTING
HIGHS ABOVE 70 IN SOME CASES.
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAP INTO
SOME GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY (AND MILDER LOW TEMPS AS WELL). AT
LEAST PATCHY SUN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL LET HIGHS GET WELL UP
INTO THE 70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND MILDER STILL.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACT LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...NOW
FOCUSING ON THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. BUT
EVEN THOUGH CONSENSUS HAS SPED UP THE INDIVIDUAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ALSO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM PASSAGE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY LEAVES A LOT TO BE
DESIRED. FOR INSTANCE...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL EURO MODEL HAS ENERGY
AND WIND SHEAR LARGELY FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR REGION WHILE THE OP GFS
HAS OUR REGION IMPACTED BY A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM BUT WHICH LACKS AN
EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR. COLLABORATING WITH SPC CLOSELY...THEY SEE
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO REFRAIN FROM OUTLOOKING A CONSOLIDATED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT QUITE YET...BUT CERTAINLY SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS POINT AND WE WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS IN
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VERY CLOSELY. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 54 37 57 35 / 10 3 3 1
MERIDIAN 61 35 58 31 / 17 5 3 1
VICKSBURG 54 37 58 34 / 8 1 1 0
HATTIESBURG 64 38 61 33 / 23 8 1 0
NATCHEZ 54 37 56 34 / 10 2 1 0
GREENVILLE 53 36 55 34 / 5 1 5 1
GREENWOOD 53 34 55 32 / 6 2 8 1
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1212 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE...THOUGH WE ARE BEING MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLEARING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THAN RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS SUGGEST GIVEN
RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS. WE DID LOWER FORECAST HIGHS A BIT IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE...AROUND STANLEY AND TIOGA...WHERE IT
APPEARS STRATUS WILL HOLD BACK HEATING THE MOST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
WE HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL
17 UTC GIVEN OBSERVED 1/4SM VISIBILITIES AT BOTH CARRINGTON AND
JAMESTOWN AT MID MORNING ALONG WITH WEB CAMERAS SHOWING THE LOW
VISIBILITIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94 AT JAMESTOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THIS FOG SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER LACKS
MUCH LOW-LEVEL STABILITY...AND SHOULD BE WARMING WITH TIME...BUT
THE FOG WAS UNEXPECTED AND NOT WELL-RESOLVED BY MODEL GUIDANCE SO
OUR CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...WE DID LINGER LOW-END POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW LONGER THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND BASED ON RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM NEAR HAZEN TOWARD NEW SALEM AT 14 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
COOL TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE AND CLEARING SKIES WEST TODAY
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH 0830 UTC. THE 00 UTC GLOBAL AND 00-07 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION
SUITES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE SNOW BY LATE THIS MORNING. ONE
HALF INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S ARE FORECAST AREA WIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER...THE
STRATUS MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO
THE EAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
MILD TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A POSSIBLE MID
WEEK COOL DOWN HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC GLOBAL SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A SLOW WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND NORTHERN MONTANA. A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THUS...A LARGE GRADIENT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
FORECAST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
NORTH CENTRAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MARK ANOTHER POTENTIAL COOL DOWN BACK TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. REGARDING PRECIPITATION...A
WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
MVFR AND LOW VFR CEILINGS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND BY THIS EVENING WE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ND BETWEEN ABOUT 06 AND
16 UTC DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOWMELT TODAY...BUT THERE IS
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THAT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AND BRING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRIER
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM SATURDAY...COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM
AS UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DIVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AT AFD TIME...SURFACE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH WARM/WEDGE FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST
ALONG OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE SC/NC STATE LINE. DAMMING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NC PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THOSE AREAS.
FIRST ITEM OF NOTE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS ACTUALLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING
250J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE UPSTATE...WITH RAP FORECASTING THAT
TO DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A LINE OF CONVECTION
/THOUGH NO CGS OBSERVED YET/ HAS DEVELOPED GENERALLY ALONG THE
NC/TN STATE LINE AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST GA. AS THE UPPER
LOW DIPS DOWN...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS MAY BRIEFLY COINCIDE
WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STORMS. DO NOT REALLY EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST...CAA WILL
KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TO JUXTAPOSE
TEMPERATURES VERSUS CLOUD COVER BUT FOR NOW BEST GUESS IS THAT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WILL BE SOLIDLY BELOW
FREEZING...WITH FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS. FOR ASHEVILLE AND
THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO WARM
FOR FROST...BUT OVER THE LITTLE TENNESSEE SHOULD SEE LOWS DROP
ENOUGH TO WARRANT FROST MENTION IN THE GRIDS. SINCE ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS HAD THEIR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM TURNED ON
YESTERDAY...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE FIVE SOUTHWEST NC
COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FOR THE MOST PART...PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT THIS EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW...BUT AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE IN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID...MODELS HAVE PERFORMED QUITE
POORLY TODAY SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS IS PRETTY LOW
GIVEN WE ARE TALKING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY
MAY REMAIN ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DURING THE DAY...AND THEN BACK OVER TO SNOW IN
THE EVENING. THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
INCH OR SO ACROSS MAINLY THE SMOKIES BUT COMBINED WITH SNOW PAST
00Z SUNDAY AS WE PUSH INTO THE SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH WPC SNOW FORECASTS. THIS IS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONFIDENCE LEVELS AND
THE FACT THAT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SPS MENTION AND WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE THE HI-RES GUIDANCE TO REFINE THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM SATURDAY...ON SUNDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN USA...AND A TROUGH RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN USA. A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WILL EXIT OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN PROGRESSES AND DEAMPLIFIES
RESULTING IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...ON SUNDAY EVENING A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW
WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST. COLD MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NC MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS SPREADING
WELL EAST OF THE TN BORDER. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS OF MOISTURE EVEN
SPILLING OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN IN THOSE LOCATIONS. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE TN BORDER ON MONDAY...BUT COLD MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE TN BORDER THROUGH THE DAY...FINALLY ENDING OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT SNOW TOTALS WILL NOT MEET ADVISORY OR
WARNING CRITERIA...AND THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY FEATURES DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...UNTIL ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE
RIDGING ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. WITH PLANT LIFE AT AN ADVANCED STAGE DUE
TO WARM TEMPERATURES EARLIER IN THE MONTH...FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED. FROST ADVISORIES ARE LESS CERTAIN...AS DRIER AIR MAY LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BY TUESDAY EVENING THE CHANGE
IN WEATHER REGIME WILL HAVE HAPPENED...WITH THE AXIS OF A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND PUSHING THE SURFACE HIGH
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDOWN. THAT SHOULD LEAVE US WITH A
FAIRLY SPECTACULAR EARLY SPRING DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND TEMPS ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...SO CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. AFTER THAT...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOT HAD THE
BEST CONTINUITY WITH THAT ONE...AND SHOW A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROF TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW ARE
MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND NOW A COLD FRONT GETS MORE STRUNG OUT
SW TO NE...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE TIMING
HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH...BUT THE MID/UPPER FORCING
DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT HAD IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS.
LOW LEVEL FORCING ALSO DIMINISHES AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHANCE RANGE BECAUSE OF THE
MODEL FORCING TREND. THE GFS STILL BRINGS A PLUME OF WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS NE GA AND UPSTATE SC...ALONG WITH MODERATE
SHEAR...SO THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED...AND WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME
SEVERE STORMS ON THAT DAY JUST YET. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO NEXT SATURDAY LOOKS QUIET AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS CONTINUE VFR AT TAF TIME AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT
TREND FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. WEDGE FRONT JUST PUSHED THROUGH THE
AIRPORT SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH...FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON
TCLT AND ON VISIBLE SATELLITE BUT UNFORTUNATELY THIS WAS ONLY AFTER
IT HAD SWUNG THE WINDS AROUND. WITH KCLT NOW IN THE MORE STABLE
AIR...HAVE REMOVED THE TEMPO BUT KEPT VCSH...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE
OUT IN CASE QUICK TEMPO TSRA NEEDS TO BE ADDED. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR AROUND 00Z...GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR SO. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO
DROP CIGS TO IFR OVERNIGHT BUT GIVEN RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE /WHICH
WAS PRETTY ABYSMAL TODAY/ HAVE NOT BITTEN OFF ON THAT...PREFERRING
INSTEAD TO WATCH TRENDS AND UPDATE IF NECESSARY. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN NE THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND 10KT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY SIMILAR TREND TO KCLT BUT WITH ADJUSTMENTS
IN TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT BASED ON MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE AREA...CURRENTLY NEAR KAVL AT TAF TIME. KAVL STILL SEEING
DOWN-VALLEY WINDS BUT ONCE THE LOW PASSES SHOULD SWING AROUND TO
THE N. CONTINUED TEMPO TSRA FOR UPSTATE TAFS GIVEN THEIR LOCATION
SOUTH OF THE WEDGE FRONT AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. ALL
SITES SHOULD BE MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE
NE AROUND OR JUST BELOW 10KT.
OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE WITH
ANY SHOWERS UNDER THE PASSING TROUGH. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z
KCLT HIGH 92% HIGH 87% HIGH 96% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 98% HIGH 96% HIGH 85% HIGH 93%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 82% MED 78%
KHKY MED 78% HIGH 85% MED 78% HIGH 83%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 88% HIGH 85%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 82% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ051-052-
058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...TDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
522 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER IOWA BUT ALSO EXTENDING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. ARCING BAND OF CLOUDS IS GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. RADAR RETURNS SHOW JUST A FEW
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN WINNEBAGO AND CALUMET
COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD EXIT THESE COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WI. FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO
THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...BANDS OF CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND MOST LIKELY
EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...DIURNAL CU ACROSS NORTHERN
WI WILL ALSO LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING. THIS SHOULD LEAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. DESPITE
SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GUIDANCE IS NOT THAT
COLD TONIGHT. THINK THAT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER N-C WI...SO SIDED WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE
IN THIS AREA...AND THEN DROPPED THE COLD SPOTS A COUPLE DEGREES
FURTHER. THE EAST SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO GUIDANCE DUE TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DURING THE EVENING. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER ONTARIO. SOME DIURNAL CU IS
ALSO LIKELY TO POP BY LATE IN THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED HOWEVER...BUT AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...A FEW SHOWERS MAY MIGRATE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO N-C WI...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
THE PATTERN INCREASINGLY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FOR THE NEW WORK DUE
A TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE WEEK TO A
DEEPENING SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF A NORTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHILE A 100 KT JETLET
SLIDES OVER. PCPN TYPE AN ISSUE WITH MORE LIKELY SNOW FROM FAR NE
WISCONSIN TO RAIN CENTRAL AREAS...AND A MIX IN BETWEEN.
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...PCPN MAY TREND LESS BUT NOT END
AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE AREA AS UPPER FLOW
GRADUALLY TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INTENSE WEST TO EAST 850 FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE STATE WITH A LFQ REGION OF AN UPPER JET
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING. PREVIOUS MODELS WERE MIXED WITH
PCPN TYPE FROM HEAVY RAIN TO HEAVY SNOW...BUT LATEST RUNS SUGGESTS
COLDER AND MORE TOWARD A HEAVY SNOW EVENT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEN DIVERTS AFTER WITH DURATION AND TRACKING.
PROGS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE 850 LOW OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOWARD FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. SMALL PCPN CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 24 HRS. CLDS
WL GENERALLY DECR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME
LAKE CLDS...ESP IN N-C WI...LATE TNGT. THE LAKE CLDS COULD RESULT
IN SOME OCNL MVFR CIGS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE WOLF GRADUALLY RISING. HYDRO PARTNERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS FURTHER NORTH...WILL
BE MORE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS AND MORE RUNOFF. IF MORE
SNOW...A MORE DELAYED RUNOFF.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
HYDROLOGY......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FOND DU LAC AND COLUMBIA
COUNTIES ARE SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AS THEY WEAKEN. THESE ARE IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER IOWA AND ALSO COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST WITH TIME TODAY.
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI THIS AFTERNOON... RIGHT WITHIN
THAT AREA OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. MOISTURE AND
FORCING ARE SUFFICIENT UP TO 5000 FEET ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS SHOWED IN THEIR MORNING FORECASTS. WARM AIR IS WRAPPING
NORTHWARD SO THESE SHOWERS ARE RAIN. THEY MAY CHANGE OVER TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
THE COLDER AIR FROM THE SHEBOYGAN AREA WRAPS INTO SOUTHWEST WI.
BESIDES BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THESE SHOWERS... NO IMPACT IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.
.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH MO TONIGHT AND TN SUNDAY. THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST WI TO OUR SOUTH DURING
THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND LEAD TO CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND PROBABLY DOWN TO THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AND THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY.
ONE MORE VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THESE CLOUDS IF THEY DEVELOP- THEY
RAP IS SHOWING DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE NAM. TOO SMALL OF
A CHANCE TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY WILL TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE. WE
WILL STILL BE UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH... SO EXPECT CUMULUS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY LATE MORNING THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON
COULD LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AREA AS WELL.
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW SO NO SHOWERS EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW US TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD BY MONDAY...EXITING EAST BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A DECENT DAY BY MOST MEASURES WITH WINDS
LIGHT AND HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S...LOW 40S BY SHEBOYGAN
AND UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET THAT POINTS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING...THEN
PIVOTS TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS DEEP AND QUITE STRONG...BUT ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A DRY TREND. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE AND IT
WILL BE A STRUGGLE FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT THIS KIND OF WAA USUALLY
FIGURES OUT A WAY TO MAKE IT HAPPEN. FOR NOW...IN THE INTEREST OF
COLLABORATION MOSTLY...WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SPRINKLES...BUT
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PLACES MEASURE.
THE LOW OUT WEST WILL HAVE A TROUGH/STATIONARY BOUNDARY...EXTENDING
EAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP...THOUGH ANY DEEPER FORCING
MECHANISMS WILL BE LACKING. WILL CARRY SMALL POPS ON
TUESDAY...MAINLY EAST WE SHOULD GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ENOUGH
ON TUESDAY TO SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S...THOUGH
MUCH MORE QUESTIONABLE UP TOWARD SHEBOYGAN WHERE IT WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S.
.WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A VERY INTERESTING PERIOD HERE. THERE IS A GROWING CONSENSUS
SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE KS/NEB VCNTY THEN HEADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL OR FAR SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS COPIOUS
MOISTURE WITH THIS EARLY SPRING STORM AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
IS ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL. THE GFS IS LOOKING THE WARMEST COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND THE GEM-NH. LOTS OF CLASSIC DYNAMIC FORCING HERE
WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND UPPER JET CONFIGURATION...IN
ADDITION TO DEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS. GLAD TO SEE THE 700-600MB
FRONTOGENESIS IS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SUGGESTING THE
BETTER SNOW BAND WILL STAY OUT OF THE AREA. OUR NORTHERN HALF...N
OF MKE AND MSN...COULD SEE A RAIN SHOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING...
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE. AS
TEMPS FALL AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MIX WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH...THEN SPREAD SOUTH AS IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW IN SOME
AREAS. FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...BUT DETAILS START TO GET VERY MURKY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES AT THAT RANGE. THE BIG MESSAGE IS STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES ON THE TRACK AND WX TYPE DETAILS GOING FORWARD...THEY WILL
SURELY CHANGE. IF YOU PLAN ON TRAVELING NORTH THROUGH THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY/WED NGT...YOU/LL WANT TO PREPARE FOR WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
WE SHOULD BE DRYING OUT BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES WELL
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO MORE NORMAL
LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FOND DU LAC AND PORTAGE AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING INLAND AS THEY WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BACK
EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS IS PERSISTING LONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED SO SOUTHEAST WI SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS
FEATURE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE VERY LIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO NO IMPACT FOR AVIATION.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM MADISON TO JANESVILLE AND WEST. THESE ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP AND ARE PRIMARILY RAIN DUE TO WARM AIR WRAPPING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WI AND THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THEY MAY CHANGE OVER
TO A MIX IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ENDING. ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3 TO 5SM.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 3 SM RANGE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING... AND THEN SCATTER OUT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
HOWEVER BROKEN LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
FROM KMKE TO KENW. THE LES CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY RANGE FROM 1.5
KFT TO 3.0 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHEAST BY
EARLY EVENING BUT WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. LIGHTER NORTH WINDS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH A LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER IOWA BUT ALSO EXTENDING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. ARCING BAND OF CLOUDS IS GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. RADAR RETURNS SHOW JUST A FEW
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN WINNEBAGO AND CALUMET
COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD EXIT THESE COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WI. FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO
THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...BANDS OF CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND MOST LIKELY
EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...DIURNAL CU ACROSS NORTHERN
WI WILL ALSO LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING. THIS SHOULD LEAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. DESPITE
SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GUIDANCE IS NOT THAT
COLD TONIGHT. THINK THAT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER N-C WI...SO SIDED WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE
IN THIS AREA...AND THEN DROPPED THE COLD SPOTS A COUPLE DEGREES
FURTHER. THE EAST SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO GUIDANCE DUE TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DURING THE EVENING. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER ONTARIO. SOME DIURNAL CU IS
ALSO LIKELY TO POP BY LATE IN THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED HOWEVER...BUT AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...A FEW SHOWERS MAY MIGRATE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO N-C WI...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
THE PATTERN INCREASINGLY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FOR THE NEW WORK DUE
A TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE WEEK TO A
DEEPENING SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF A NORTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHILE A 100 KT JETLET
SLIDES OVER. PCPN TYPE AN ISSUE WITH MORE LIKELY SNOW FROM FAR NE
WISCONSIN TO RAIN CENTRAL AREAS...AND A MIX IN BETWEEN.
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...PCPN MAY TREND LESS BUT NOT END
AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE AREA AS UPPER FLOW
GRADUALLY TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INTENSE WEST TO EAST 850 FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE STATE WITH A LFQ REGION OF AN UPPER JET
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING. PREVIOUS MODELS WERE MIXED WITH
PCPN TYPE FROM HEAVY RAIN TO HEAVY SNOW...BUT LATEST RUNS SUGGESTS
COLDER AND MORE TOWARD A HEAVY SNOW EVENT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEN DIVERTS AFTER WITH DURATION AND TRACKING.
PROGS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE 850 LOW OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOWARD FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. SMALL PCPN CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. BROKEN MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA
INCLUDING MTW AND ATW. GRB WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THESE LOWER
CIGS...BUT THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHER SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER N-C WI
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL SEE A
GENERAL CLEARING TREND THIS EVENING THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CLOUDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY WORK INTO
RHI AT THE SAME TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE WOLF GRADUALLY RISING. HYDRO PARTNERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS FURTHER NORTH...WILL
BE MORE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS AND MORE RUNOFF. IF MORE
SNOW...A MORE DELAYED RUNOFF.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1120 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR SHEBOYGAN HAVE SOME SUBSTANCE TO THEM.
VISIBILITY AT SBM AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 3/4 MILE FOR A TIME. EXPECT
THESE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE ARE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IOWA AND
ALSO COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK LAKE-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST WITH TIME TODAY.
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT UPPER LOW WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI THIS AFTERNOON... RIGHT WITHIN
THAT AREA OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT UP TO 5000 FEET ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SCENARIO. INCREASED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
BESIDES BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THESE SHOWERS... NO IMPACT IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SHEBOYGAN AREA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND AS
THEY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MKE AND UES COULD SEE A FEW
FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE BUT EXPECT THE VISIBILITY-REDUCING SNOW
TO REMAIN TO THEIR NORTH.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM MADISON TO JANESVILLE AND WEST. THESE WILL BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 2 TO 3 SM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 3 SM RANGE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING... AND THEN SCATTER OUT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
HOWEVER BROKEN LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
FROM KMKE TO KENW. THE LES CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY RANGE FROM 1.5
KFT TO 3.0 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...
SCATTERED MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN
WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS OF
AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING BUT WAVES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. LIGHTER NORTH
WINDS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
THE UPPER LOW OVER NW WI WILL TRACK TO S IA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE
VORT LOBE CURRENTLY EXTENDING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI WILL ROTATE WWD
AWAY FROM WI. AT THE SFC..THE WEAK LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH FROM NE
IA EXTENDING TO THE SE WILL SHIFT SWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI SHOULD
WEAKEN AND SHIFT WWD THIS MORNING GIVEN THE MOVEMENT AWAY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAKER INVERTED TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WWD ACROSS LAKE MI WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE LAKE. THUS ISOLD TO SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE WWD
ACROSS SRN WI THIS MORNING. SMALL CHANCES OF PCPN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP. DRIER AIR ON
NELY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER FAR ERN WI. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD WWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A
NELY FETCH AND LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCES OF 8-9C MAY CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER FAR SE WI THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
WITH SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE. THE CLOUDS AND ENELY WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY WHILE TEMPS IN THE 20S TNT ARE FORECAST TNT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
SURFACE TO 250MB RIDGING WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED/STACKED LOW. THE MAIN QUESTION OVER THIS
PERIOD WILL BE WITH CLOUD COVER AND HOW THAT MAY AFFECT
TEMPERATURES. THE 19.00Z NAM/GFS BOTH HAVE SOME HIGHER RH IN BOTH
THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-300MB LAYER THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS A JET STREAK PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING
EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THIS CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HOW FAR TEMPERATURES DROP
THAT MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED THEM UP A LITTLE BIT.
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL LOOK LIKE AS THIS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT
COMES IN ON TUESDAY THOUGH THAT MAINLY IS DUE TO THE 19.00Z GFS
WHICH PAINTS A BAND OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...MUCH DEPENDS ON WHEN THE
NEXT SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. EACH LONG TERM MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT
SOLUTION WITH WHERE TO TRACK THIS LOW OVER THIS PERIOD. THE 19.00Z
ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST WITH THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM AS IT COMES THROUGH
ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS MORE DELAYED WITH BRINGING THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...GETS INTO THE WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE 4-8C RANGE.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A COUPLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL
MAINTAIN STRATUS CLOUDS AND ISOLD TO SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. CIGS WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM 1-3 KFT. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PCPN. CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT TNT AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES HOWEVER BROKEN LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM KMKE TO KENW. THE LES CLOUDS WILL ALSO
LIKELY RANGE FROM 1.5 KFT TO 3.0 KFT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HALBACH