Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/18/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
830 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
NEW 00Z NAM AND 01Z HRRR BOTH HAVE VERY LITTLE PRECIP SOUTH OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH 12Z...SO HAVE BEGUN TO CUT BACK
OVERNIGHT POPS OVER THE PLAINS AND ALONG I25 FROM COLORADO
SPRINGS SOUTHWARD. ALSO MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO SURFACE
WINDS TO CAPTURE PERIOD OF NE GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS OVER THE PLAINS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
...WINTER WILL REVISIT SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
NEXT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES OF ID/WY/MT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...SFC FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH EL PASO COUNTY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST CO IS IN THE 60S. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH LOW CLOUDS
FILLING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SNOW BREAKING
OUT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS THE ASSOC UPPER JET TRANSLATES IN. MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE
SYSTEM STAYS A LITTLE OFF TO THE NORTH...WITH MAJORITY OF THE
FORCING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO CONSISTING OF SHALLOW UPSLOPE.
HOWEVER...PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH IS IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO
FORCING WITH THE UPPER JET...SHOULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF STEADY
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL...ACCUMULATIONS DO
NOT LOOK THAT HEAVY...BUT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES...COULD SEE SOME
IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
COLORADO SPRINGS...NORTHWARD TO MONUMENT HILL AS TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE LOWER 20S AND ROADS BEGIN TO ICE UP. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY STILL LOOK ON
TRACK...WITH PRIMARILY 2-5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY...AND 3 TO 7 FOR TELLER COUNTY. SNOW WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE
PUEBLO AREA AND MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF NARROW RIBBON OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE PUSH OF DEEPER COLD AIR...BUT SOUNDINGS QUICKLY
SATURATE DEEPLY ENOUGH FOR A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 MAY BE MOST AT RISK
FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...BUT FOR NOW MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MORE THAN A BRIEF 1-2 HR WINDOW FOR SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 40S...AND WITH
ROAD SFCS CARRYING SOME RESIDUAL WARMTH ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...THINK THAT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL BE MINIMAL.
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO PICK UP SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
SPREADING IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT(1-
2" RANGE)...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
SHALLOW TO PUSH OVER INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WILL BE THE WARMEST ON
FRIDAY...WITH KALS SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S...COMPARED TO THE
PLAINS WHICH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. -KT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT MODERATES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AS EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
EVENING...AS LIFT AND MOISTURE WANE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z AND THE
18Z RUNS OF THE NAM CONTINUE TO PRINT OUT QPF ACROSS THE PLAINS WELL
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS COULD BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUE AND HAVE POPS ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS AT TAD ACROSS THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND BACK TO AT AND
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
AHEAD OF EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AS A MINOR SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL TO AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD. COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS MORE ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
TONIGHT...ENTERING THE PALMER DIVIDE BY 03Z...THEN SPREADING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE KCOS AND KPUB IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL START OUT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AFTER
06Z WHERE KCOS COULD PICK UP AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH BY 12Z FRI. KPUB
WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY A DUSTING THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. SNOW ALONG
WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRI MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATION FALLING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-1.5
WILL FALL AT THE KCOS TERMINAL. KPUB MAY PICK UP AROUND 1/2
INCH...BUT THE WARM GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MELTING. IFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT KCOS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIFT
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. KALS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ081-
082-084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
650 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.
THE FIRST OF TWO 100+KT JET STREAKS IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO WNW PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
FRIDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH FOR THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES ARE INITIALLY BORDERLINE
AND CONDITIONS ARE A TAD DRIER. MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT
MOVING DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE NE BRINGING A MORE
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH MOISTURE BUTTED UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS TO BRING
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SNOW. HRRR SHOWING SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS
FRONT FOR THE EXTREME NE COUNTIES BUT THE MODEL HAS HAD A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM SO STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THOSE COUNTIES. BANDING WILL BECOME A MAJOR FORECASTING CHALLENGE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE EXACT LOCATION OF SET-UP IS DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN. MODELS STILL SHOWING A SECONDARY JET STREAK MOVING
SE INTO THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A SECONDARY SURGE
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND LARIMER COUNTY AFTER A
LULL IN THE EVENING. WINTER STORM WARNING IS OUT UNTIL 6 PM
FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONTINUED SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO SHOW
UPSLOPE INCREASING OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
PORTIONS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM SO MELTING MAY OCCUR
AT FIRST BUT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO FREEZE AND SNOW TO START TO
ACCUMULATE.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLIER ONSET OF
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE
40S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE EXTREME NE AND SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE THE CLOUDS DID NOT QUITE REACH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
TURN MORE NE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS AIRMASS BECOMES MORE SUBSIDENT.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS NEARLY CENTERED OVERHEAD SO CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING TO MIDNIGHT OR LATER. FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.
FOR SATURDAY...DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS STILL PERSISTENT SHOWING MORE MOISTURE IN THIS
FLOW SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE. IT WILL STILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND AND NO
DOWNSLOPE.
BY SUNDAY...LEE TROUGHING AND WARM ADVECTION OCCURS. EVEN WITH
SOME LINGERING SNOW COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RISE INTO THE MID 50S ON THE PLAINS.
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE. GFS SEEMS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH A PIECE OF THE NEXT TROUGH REACHING THE FORECAST
AREA LATE MONDAY...BUT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA. WILL LOWER TEMPS A
BIT FROM GUIDANCE AND HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE LOWEST OF ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
THE MAIN SNOW BAND HAS SET UP OVER BOULDER COUNTY AND STRETCHES
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...OVER KDEN. IFR AND SOME LIFR CONDITIONS
UNDER THIS BAND. FORECASTING THE WAVERING OF THE BAND IS THE MOST
DIFFICULT ISSUE TONIGHT. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO KEEP LOWERED CEILINGS AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT HI RES
MODELS SHOWING THIS BAND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 05Z WITH A BRIEF
BREAK...BEFORE A PUSH FROM THE NORTHEAST MOVES IN AROUND 11Z TO
THE AREA AIRPORTS TO DECREASE VIS AND CIGS. LOOK FOR IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO
DECREASE AND SNOW TAPERS OFF. OVERALL...LOOKING AT 3 TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE
FOOTHILLS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ034-036-
039>045.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ031-033-035-
038.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
201 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE 31...NEAR RABBIT
EARS PASS...AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEN QG LIFT
WILL BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT TO BRING MORE SNOW TO
THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE UPSTREAM
IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TODAY AND MAY LIMIT SOME SNOWFALL RATES COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND WHAT SNOW WILL FALL WILL LIKELY IMPACT
TRAVELERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS EXPIRE AS ONLY SPOTTY
LIGHT SNOW REMAINS AS THE TROUGH HAS PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE AREA.
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE AGAIN...AND HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUALLY SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE PRECIP/SNOW AMOUNTS THAN
FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOW AN AREA OF MODERATE MID LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH BANDED SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AS WELL. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH 9 AM MDT THIS
MORNING. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER ZONES 41..46
AND 47 UNTIL 9 AM AS WELL. GOOD SUBSIDENCE PROGGED LATER THIS
MORNING SO DECREASING SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE STILL SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
BUT NOT SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...THE
REST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRIER AND WINDY. NO FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED RH
VALUES THIS AFTN AND ALTHOUGH WINDY...NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS ANOTHER
JET MAX APPROACHES FM THE NORTHWEST. WILL KEEP SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE MAY INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TOWARDS 12Z. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WINDY EARLY BUT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 03Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST U.S. AND THE HIGH
OVER LOW TO THE WEST OF IT OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES. A
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES GETS SOMEWHAT
SHEARED APART AS IT MOVE NEARS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEND TO AGREE
WITH THE ECMWF AS IT DIGS THE TROUGH A LITTLE MORE SOUTH THAN THE
GFS.
NOW FOR THE DETAILS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 100 KNOT JET OVER THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THAT
WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
WEAK THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNLESS THE TROUGH DIGS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN IS FORECASTED BY THE MODELS. WITH THE JET AND UPSLOPE
FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT SNOW INTO FRIDAY. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING
WITH THIS PATTERN. MOST OF THEM HAVE THE BAND OF SNOW FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR FRIDAY...NOT MUCH AGREEMENT WHERE THE
SNOW WILL OCCUR. SNOWFALL TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PUSH THE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BE COOL YET WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY LOWER 70S FOR MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
COLORADO. A PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INLAND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS
DRY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH REMAINS TOO FAR WEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO GIVE WAY TO STRONGER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS...SHOULD BE ALL WNW BY 17Z. EXPECT SOME GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS
TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...RETURNING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z. WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE WNW AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z...BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS
THAN THE LAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ031.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
925 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS EXPIRE AS ONLY SPOTTY
LIGHT SNOW REMAINS AS THE TROUGH HAS PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE AREA.
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE AGAIN...AND HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUALLY SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE PRECIP/SNOW AMOUNTS THAN
FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOW AN AREA OF MODERATE MID LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH BANDED SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AS WELL. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH 9 AM MDT THIS
MORNING. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER ZONES 41..46
AND 47 UNTIL 9 AM AS WELL. GOOD SUBSIDENCE PROGGED LATER THIS
MORNING SO DECREASING SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE STILL SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
BUT NOT SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...THE
REST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRIER AND WINDY. NO FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED RH
VALUES THIS AFTN AND ALTHOUGH WINDY...NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS ANOTHER
JET MAX APPROACHES FM THE NORTHWEST. WILL KEEP SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE MAY INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TOWARDS 12Z. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WINDY EARLY BUT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 03Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST U.S. AND THE HIGH
OVER LOW TO THE WEST OF IT OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES. A
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES GETS SOMEWHAT
SHEARED APART AS IT MOVE NEARS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEND TO AGREE
WITH THE ECMWF AS IT DIGS THE TROUGH A LITTLE MORE SOUTH THAN THE
GFS.
NOW FOR THE DETAILS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 100 KNOT JET OVER THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THAT
WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
WEAK THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNLESS THE TROUGH DIGS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN IS FORECASTED BY THE MODELS. WITH THE JET AND UPSLOPE
FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT SNOW INTO FRIDAY. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING
WITH THIS PATTERN. MOST OF THEM HAVE THE BAND OF SNOW FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR FRIDAY...NOT MUCH AGREEMENT WHERE THE
SNOW WILL OCCUR. SNOWFALL TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PUSH THE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BE COOL YET WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY LOWER 70S FOR MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
COLORADO. A PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INLAND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS
DRY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH REMAINS TOO FAR WEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO GIVE WAY TO STRONGER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS...SHOULD BE ALL WNW BY 17Z. EXPECT SOME GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS
TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...RETURNING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z. WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE WNW AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z...BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS
THAN THE LAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
352 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOW AN AREA OF MODERATE MID LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH BANDED SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AS WELL. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH 9 AM MDT THIS
MORNING. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER ZONES 41..46
AND 47 UNTIL 9 AM AS WELL. GOOD SUBSIDENCE PROGGED LATER THIS
MORNING SO DECREASING SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE STILL SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
BUT NOT SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...THE
REST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRIER AND WINDY. NO FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED RH
VALUES THIS AFTN AND ALTHOUGH WINDY...NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS ANOTHER
JET MAX APPROACHES FM THE NORTHWEST. WILL KEEP SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE MAY INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TOWARDS 12Z. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WINDY EARLY BUT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 03Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST U.S. AND THE HIGH
OVER LOW TO THE WEST OF IT OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES. A
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES GETS SOMEWHAT
SHEARED APART AS IT MOVE NEARS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEND TO AGREE
WITH THE ECMWF AS IT DIGS THE TROUGH A LITTLE MORE SOUTH THAN THE
GFS.
NOW FOR THE DETAILS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 100 KNOT JET OVER THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THAT
WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
WEAK THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNLESS THE TROUGH DIGS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN IS FORECASTED BY THE MODELS. WITH THE JET AND UPSLOPE
FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT SNOW INTO FRIDAY. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING
WITH THIS PATTERN. MOST OF THEM HAVE THE BAND OF SNOW FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR FRIDAY...NOT MUCH AGREEMENT WHERE THE
SNOW WILL OCCUR. SNOWFALL TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PUSH THE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BE COOL YET WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY LOWER 70S FOR MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
COLORADO. A PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INLAND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS
DRY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH REMAINS TOO FAR WEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. BKN MID LEVEL CIGS
WILL LINGER THOUGH 15Z WITH SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF
DENVER. WL KEEP VCSH IN KAPA AND MAYBE BRIEF ILS RESTRICTION WITH
BKN CIGS AROUND 5KFT AGL UNTIL 15Z THEN IMPROVING CIGS THEREAFTER.
SWLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER WNWLY WINDS
AFTER 15Z. EXPECT SOME GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS TO DEVELOP BY THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ031-
033-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
243 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLL0WED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH...AND USHER A RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND WILL START WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO 20
DEGREES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THICKENING
AND LOWERING. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF ONSET OF SHOWERS BASED ON
REGIONAL RADARS AND THE MESOSCALE HRRR MODEL WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
HANDLE ON CURRENT LOCATION OF THE ON-GOING CONVECTION. HAVE POPS
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND DECREASING LATE IN THE EVENING AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING CONTINUES TO OCCUR AS CONVECTION MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DUE TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO
THE FORECAST FOR AREAS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE NORMAL HIGHS ARE FOR MID MARCH WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. WILL BE WILL HAVE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY...RATHER STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS H500 TEMPS COOL TO -25 TO -30 C. THE
QUESTION IS...WILL THERE BE AN ATMOSPHERIC FORCING MECHANISM TO
TAP THIS INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO TAP THIS INSTABILITY. MID LEVELS WILL BE RATHER DRY...SO
EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...GIVEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 8
C/KM...AND AN INVERTED V APPEARANCE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANY SLIGHTLY TALLER CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. RATHER STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR IF ANY SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS FROM DEVELOPING COLD POOLS
DEVELOP...BUT AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...APPEARS LIKE A LOW
PROBABILITY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY...AND WITH DEEP
MIXING...HAVE SIDED ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH EVEN HIGHER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODEL SUITE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE 12UTC
NAM/GFS IN LINE WITH PVS RUNS AS WELL AS 00UTC GEM AND ECMWF.
WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH SUPER BLEND AS THIS PERIOD OFFERS FEW
TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI A STRONG 500 HPA TROF AND ITS SFC CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND WINTER LIKE CONDS. WHILE GENERALLY MOISTURE STARVED...SCT-BKN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. AT 500 HPA
BY LATE FRI A SMALL OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP FM THE UPPER GRT PLAINS TO
NEW ENG WITH FCST AREA AT BASE OF EASTERN TROF. WITH SFC LOW
DEEPENING IN GULF OF MAINE...AND 1030MB OR SO SFC HIGH OVER
ONTARIO...BRISK WINDS...CAA...N-NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN VRBL CLOUDS
AND BRISK CONDS INTO SAT AND ISOLD -SHSN OVER HIR TRRN.
SAT THE PATTERN AT 500HPA WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH FCA AREA COMING
UNDER THE RIDGE AT ITS CENTER...THE SFC LOW IN N ATLC
DEPARTING...WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES SAT NT. HWVR TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS AFT CFP FOR
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE OMEGA BLOCK IN
THE NE AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE THE WESTERN TROF OPENS AND A
SECOND AND STRONG SHORT WV DIVES INTO THE TROF AS IT DEEPENS IN
THE MIDWEST.
SUNDAY STARTS FAIR AND COLD...BUT THE 500 HPA TROF INTERACTING
WITH THE COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE TRIGGERS CYCLOGENISUS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...WHICH DEEPENS EXPLOSIVELY (BOMBS) FM SUN AFT TO
MON AFT. THIS BOMB SIGNAL HAS BEEN IN THE DATA FOR DAYS...BUT
LOCATION HAS VARIED FROM RUN TO RUN.
THE TREND FOR SVRL RUNS HAS BEEN TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM FURTHER
EAST...AND LARGELY OUT OF RANGE OF THE FCA EXCEPT FOR SOME FRINGE
IMPACTS IN SE AND LIGHT SNOW IN FAR SE.
TDYS GFS/ECMWF RUNS REVERSE THAT TREND WITH GFS BACKING IT
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...W/GFS PASSING IT 150 MILES SE OFF
ACK...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FAR SE...AND CLOUDS. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF SIG
SNOW AS FAR WEST AS HUD VLY. WPC STILL MAINTAINS THE FURTHER EAST
TRACK OF PRIOR RUNS...BUT THAT DATA DOESN`T REFLECT 12UTC RUNS.
THIS IS ONLY ONE RUN...THE BEST APPROACH IS TO USE TO BLENDED
GUID AND NUDGE IT WEST. HWVR IF THIS SIGNAL PERSISTS A FEW
RUNS...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN ORDER FOR WHAT IS BCMG
A LOW TO MID CONFIDENCE FCST.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE STORM PASSES ALONG THE COAST BY LATE
MONDAY IT WILL BE A 970 SOMETHING LOW OVER MARITIMES AS A 1030HPA
POLAR HIGH DROPS INTO THE GRT PLAINS...RESULTING A STRONG WIND
DRIVEN CAA INTO TUE. THE 500 HPA TROF ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT
SLOWLY AWAY TUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE...AND GENERALLY FAIR
CONDS.
HWVR TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMALS...AND IN LIGHT
OF RECENT MILD CONDS WILL FEEL COLDER TO MOST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT GIVE WAY TO
MVFR WITH SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MVFR/IFR
FLYING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL START VFR AS AN OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOWERING VFR CLOUDS BY 20-21Z...IN WHICH VCSH WAS ADDED AT THE TAF
SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TEMPO
GROUP WAS ADDED IN THE 20-23Z TIMEFRAME AT THE TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BETWEEN 22Z-06Z.
WHILE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TAFS...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH AND WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY IF THIS LIKELIHOOD BECOMES MORE APPARENT. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHERLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARDS THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE 04-06Z TIMEFRAME...WITH ANY LINGERING THUNDER ENDING BY
02Z. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOIST LOW-LEVELS...AND A SHARP
RADIATIONAL INVERSION...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES FROM 06Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE 12Z-15Z
TIMEFRAME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND
KPSF...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KALB
AND KPSF AS WELL. STRONG MIXING BY 15Z ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR
VCSH...INCLUDING A THREAT FOR THUNDER...WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE 6-12 KNOT RANGE THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RAINFALL AMTS OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS GENERALLY AVERAGED ONE TENTH
TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA.
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND A ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TENTH...TO
ONE HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS EXPECTED FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE BREEZY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20
MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER...WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THESE SYSTEMS LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY A HALF OF AN
INCH OR LESS. THIS RAIN SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR
WATERSHEDS.
IT TURNS COLDER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...KL/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL/SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLL0WED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH...AND USHER A RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND WILL START WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO 20
DEGREES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THICKENING
AND LOWERING. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF ONSET OF SHOWERS BASED ON
REGIONAL RADARS AND THE MESOSCALE HRRR MODEL WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
HANDLE ON CURRENT LOCATION OF THE ON-GOING CONVECTION. HAVE POPS
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND DECREASING LATE IN THE EVENING AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING CONTINUES TO OCCUR AS CONVECTION MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DUE TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO
THE FORECAST FOR AREAS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE NORMAL HIGHS ARE FOR MID MARCH WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. WILL BE WILL HAVE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY...RATHER STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS H500 TEMPS COOL TO -25 TO -30 C. THE
QUESTION IS...WILL THERE BE AN ATMOSPHERIC FORCING MECHANISM TO
TAP THIS INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO TAP THIS INSTABILITY. MID LEVELS WILL BE RATHER DRY...SO
EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...GIVEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 8
C/KM...AND AN INVERTED V APPEARANCE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANY SLIGHTLY TALLER CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. RATHER STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR IF ANY SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS FROM DEVELOPING COLD POOLS
DEVELOP...BUT AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...APPEARS LIKE A LOW
PROBABILITY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY...AND WITH DEEP
MIXING...HAVE SIDED ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH EVEN HIGHER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODEL SUITE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE 12UTC
NAM/GFS IN LINE WITH PVS RUNS AS WELL AS 00UTC GEM AND ECMWF.
WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH SUPER BLEND AS THIS PERIOD OFFERS FEW
TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI A STRONG 500 HPA TROF AND ITS SFC CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND WINTER LIKE CONDS. WHILE GENERALLY MOISTURE STARVED...SCT-BKN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. AT 500 HPA
BY LATE FRI A SMALL OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP FM THE UPPER GRT PLAINS TO
NEW ENG WITH FCST AREA AT BASE OF EASTERN TROF. WITH SFC LOW
DEEPENING IN GULF OF MAINE...AND 1030MB OR SO SFC HIGH OVER
ONTARIO...BRISK WINDS...CAA...N-NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN VRBL CLOUDS
AND BRISK CONDS INTO SAT AND ISOLD -SHSN OVER HIR TRRN.
SAT THE PATTERN AT 500HPA WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH FCA AREA COMING
UNDER THE RIDGE AT ITS CENTER...THE SFC LOW IN N ATLC
DEPARTING...WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES SAT NT. HWVR TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS AFT CFP FOR
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY COLD AND DEPENDING ON THE
IMPACT FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EITHER
ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
ON SUNDAY EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE THE TREND DOWNWARD IN POPS AS THE MODELS ARE
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN IN THAT BOTH THE OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE STORM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FA TO JUST BRUSH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA WITH SOME
LIGHT PCPN. THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR KALB SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
DURING THE EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME WHEREAS GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
FOR ISLIP HAVE ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO ALMOST
HALF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS
SUCH THAT ALL THE PCPN THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
EXCEPT PERHAPS A MIX ACRS FAR SE ZONES. EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT GIVE WAY TO
MVFR WITH SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MVFR/IFR
FLYING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL START VFR AS AN OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOWERING VFR CLOUDS BY 20-21Z...IN WHICH VCSH WAS ADDED AT THE TAF
SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TEMPO
GROUP WAS ADDED IN THE 20-23Z TIMEFRAME AT THE TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BETWEEN 22Z-06Z.
WHILE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TAFS...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH AND WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY IF THIS LIKELIHOOD BECOMES MORE APPARENT. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHERLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARDS THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE 04-06Z TIMEFRAME...WITH ANY LINGERING THUNDER ENDING BY
02Z. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOIST LOW-LEVELS...AND A SHARP
RADIATIONAL INVERSION...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES FROM 06Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE 12Z-15Z
TIMEFRAME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND
KPSF...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KALB
AND KPSF AS WELL. STRONG MIXING BY 15Z ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR
VCSH...INCLUDING A THREAT FOR THUNDER...WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE 6-12 KNOT RANGE THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RAINFALL AMTS OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS GENERALLY AVERAGED ONE TENTH
TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA.
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND A ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TENTH...TO
ONE HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS EXPECTED FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE BREEZY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20
MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER...WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE SYSTEMS LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY
A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS RAIN SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WATERSHEDS.
IT TURNS COLDER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
941 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. A WARM
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
18/01Z MESOANALYSIS PLACED A WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A DUBLIN GA-
PORTAL GA-YEMASSEE SC-RAVENEL SC-WILD DUNES SC LINE. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER NORTH IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ISALLOBARIC
FALLS NOTED OVER THE MIDLANDS AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE FRONT BUCKLING AS FAR NORTH AS THE
FAR SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA ONLY TO PUSH BACK TO THE SOUTH
EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPSTATE.
THE POSITION OF THE FRONT MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST QUITE A CHALLENGE AS THE ULTIMATE TIMING AND POSITION OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE HOW COOL AREAS WILL GET PRIOR TO
18/12Z. RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS NOW KEEP THE FRONT
ROUGHLY WEST OF A PORTAL-YEMASSEE-CHARLESTON LINE THROUGH
SUNRISE...KEEPING AREAS SOUTH OF THERE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS ULTIMATE POSITION IS POOR TO
FAIR AT BEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE RAISED ANOTHER 1-2
DEGREES ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...BUT
THIS COULD PROVE CONSERVATIVE IF THE LATEST RAP AND H3R THERMAL
FIELDS COME TO FRUITION. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED
OVERNIGHT.
MODELS KEEP THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER RADAR DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE AREA BECOMING FURTHER ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR. RAP/NAM/H3R POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
BELOW 400 HPA OR SO WHICH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA RAIN-FREE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING
MECHANISM. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP AND/OR PROPAGATE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK TRAVERSES
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
LIFT IS ALREADY AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
20-40 PERCENT POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CLUSTERED ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF MILLEN-STATESBORO-RICHMOND HILL
LINE.
FINALLY...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG WITH
HCAPE AROUND 300 J/KG COULD SUPPORT AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR ANY KIND OF
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY THIS FAR EAST...BUT THE SEVERE RISK IS
CERTAINLY NON-ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG IT. 1000-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LOWER OVER SOUTHERN SC VS SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY
THOUGH QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL AFFECT
ALL AREAS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE WEAK BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE DAY. CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO AROUND 71
DEGREES.
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA
IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING AND
LIFTING THE FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND
1.50" ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHWEST GA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN MOST AREAS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH SC/GA
THOUGH THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS IT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SC SATURDAY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST GA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING MODEST SURFACE-BASED CAPE UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA. HELICITY VALUES ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
BULK SHEAR WILL BE 30-40 KT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
6-6.5C/KM. WE ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST
COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST GA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG OR SEVERE TSTM
BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT CAPE AND THUS
SEVERE POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT..SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE DRY WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST BY EARLY MONDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY...DRIFTING OFF THE COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS
LOOKS PRETTY DRY SO THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE INTO MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH A
QUICK MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR. RISK FOR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AT MAINLY KSAV BY
EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TIMING AND COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ANY MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR AT LEAST PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/STRATUS INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PINCHES MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS EVENING TO AS
MUCH AS 15 TO 20 KT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM
1 TO 2 FT THIS EVENING TO 3 TO 4 FEET BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS ON FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND PERHAPS
SOME 6 FT SEAS MAY AFFECT OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
824 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THUS FAR TODAY...IT HAS BEEN THE SAME OLE STORY WRT GULF COAST
CONVECTION THIS YEAR WITH MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA BECOMING CUTOFF
AT THE EXPENSE OF GULF DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SPC RAP INDICES SHOWING A VERY SHARP
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. BUT DESPITE VALUES CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG ALONG
OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN BORDER...CONVECTION AS MENTIONED REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THIS GRADIENT AND CANT REALLY GET ANY TRANSPORT NORTH OF
THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. INSTEAD...STARTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE ACTUALLY CAPE ZONE AS OPPOSED TO ACTIVITY
ADVECTING IN BUT MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THUS FAR. WITH
TIME THOUGH...SHOULD SEE THIS SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
AREA AS WELL AND WILL CONTINUE LOW END CHANCE POPS WITH LOW END
THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL.
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AND FEEL GUIDANCE IS
UNDERDOING POPS BASED ON GRIDDED FIELD ANALYSIS IN THE
GFS...NAM12...AND THE ECMWF. HAVE PUSHED POP CHANCES FURTHER NORTH
WHILE ALSO INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTH.
INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY BUILD DURING THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HAVE
LIMITED IT TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN LOCATIONS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIKELY POPS.
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH WARM FRONT
MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE TN/GA BORDER. INSTABILITY SHOULD RAMP
UP AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF
NORTH GEORGIA. GIVEN VICINITY OF THE LOW...SHOULDNT HAVE TO WORRY
ABOUT ANOTHER GULF CUTOFF SCENARIO AND SO WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE
ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST AREAS.
DEESE
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS DIVERGE FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THE
SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WITH GFS FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN ECMWF. DURING
THIS TIME...AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT
LAKES AREA...AGAIN GFS IS FURTHER EAST AND STRONGER THAN
ECMWF...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BETTER POPS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LOW IS ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN FLOW BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN END OF SHORT WAVE ROTATES OVER THE
FORECAST ARE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ANY LOW END POPS WILL BE MAINLY OVER
NORTH GEORGIA. THE WORK WEEK IS PUNCTUATED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO SURPRISINGLY THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT
BY WEEKS END. WILL KEEP LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW.
ATWELL
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START BUT LOWERED CEILINGS AND PRECIP MOVE IN
FRI. CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR OVER NIGHT BUT WILL BEGIN TO SEE
SOME INCREASED LOWER CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE ATL AREA TAFS BY 15-17Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF SET. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER IN THE ATL AREA BUT WILL SEE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CSG/MCN. WINDS ARE NW RIGHT NOW BUT
WILL TURN TO THE NE OVER NIGHT THEN TO THE SE BY 15-18Z. WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO STAY 10KT OR LESS. NOT EXPECTING ANY VSBYS
RESTRICTIONS EXCEPT IN AND AROUND ANY TSRA NEAR CSG AND MCN.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 49 69 51 64 / 10 30 60 50
ATLANTA 52 67 54 63 / 20 40 60 50
BLAIRSVILLE 41 65 47 57 / 0 20 40 50
CARTERSVILLE 46 66 51 61 / 20 30 50 50
COLUMBUS 55 70 58 68 / 50 60 60 60
GAINESVILLE 48 66 51 60 / 10 30 50 50
MACON 54 69 57 69 / 40 60 70 70
ROME 45 67 51 59 / 10 20 50 50
PEACHTREE CITY 49 67 52 64 / 30 40 60 50
VIDALIA 58 70 58 72 / 50 60 70 70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
652 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. A WARM
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
17/22Z MESOANALYSIS PLACED A STATIONARY FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG AN
EASTMAN GA-STATESBORO GA-BEAUFORT SC-FOLLY BEACH SC LINE. THERE
ARE SIGNS THAT FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MEANDER NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK ISALLOBARIC FALLS NOTED OVER THE MIDLANDS AND NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE FRONT BUCKLING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA LATER THIS EVENING ONLY TO
PUSH BACK TO THE SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY AS SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPSTATE. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT
MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST QUITE A CHALLENGE AS
THE ULTIMATE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE
HOW COOL AREAS WILL GET PRIOR TO 18/12Z. ALL MESOSCALE MODEL
PACKAGES KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL AFTER 3-5
AM EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS
EXPECTED EARLIER. WILL THEREFORE OPT TO RAISE LOWS BY AT LEAST A
CATEGORY FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EVENING EVENING UPDATE...BUT
THIS COULD PROVE CONSERVATIVE IF THE LATEST RAP AND H3R THERMAL
FIELDS COME TO FRUITION. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED WITH
THE LATE EVENING UPDATE CYCLE.
MODELS KEEP THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER RADAR DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE AREA BECOMING FURTHER ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR. RAP/NAM/H3R POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
BELOW 400 HPA OR SO WHICH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THIS
EVENING IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM.
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD FIRE LATER TONIGHT
AND AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK
TRAVERSES NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS CORRIDOR OF
ENHANCED LIFT IS ALREADY AIDING IN THE PRODUCTION/MAINTENANCE OF
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. 20-40
PERCENT POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CLUSTERED
ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A REIDSVILLE-RICHMOND HILL LINE.
FINALLY...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG WITH
HCAPE AROUND 300 J/KG COULD SUPPORT AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR ANY KIND OF
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY THIS FAR EAST...BUT THE SEVERE RISK IS
CERTAINLY NON-ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG IT. 1000-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LOWER OVER SOUTHERN SC VS SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY
THOUGH QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL AFFECT
ALL AREAS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE WEAK BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE DAY. CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO AROUND 71
DEGREES.
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA
IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING AND
LIFTING THE FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND
1.50" ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHWEST GA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN MOST AREAS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH SC/GA
THOUGH THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS IT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SC SATURDAY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST GA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING MODEST SURFACE-BASED CAPE UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA. HELICITY VALUES ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
BULK SHEAR WILL BE 30-40 KT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
6-6.5C/KM. WE ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST
COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST GA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG OR SEVERE TSTM
BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT CAPE AND THUS
SEVERE POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT..SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE DRY WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST BY EARLY MONDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY...DRIFTING OFF THE COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS
LOOKS PRETTY DRY SO THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE INTO MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH A
QUICK MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR. RISK FOR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AT MAINLY KSAV BY
EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TIMING AND COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ANY MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR AT LEAST PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/STRATUS INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PINCHES MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 10 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS EVENING TO AS
MUCH AS 15 TO 20 KT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM
1 TO 2 FT THIS EVENING TO 3 TO 4 FEET BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS ON FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND PERHAPS
SOME 6 FT SEAS MAY AFFECT OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
418 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW STATIONED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY IN SPITE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF RECENT TRENDS AND WARMING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE TODAY. LOWS USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR CAE
MARCH 16: 88F SET IN 1921
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AGS
MARCH 16: 88F SET IN 1921
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FALLING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL SIGNAL COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS
AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE CONSISTENT SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THERE REMAINED LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BECAUSE OF MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATED A HIGH SPREAD.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD POPS 20 TO 70 PERCENT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING THE HIGHER VALUES. WE HAVE
CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOLLOWING AN
AVERAGE OF THE MOS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MOS INDICATED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODELS AGREE ON DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE
STRATUS THIS MORNING AT AGS/DNL.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR A
NARROW BAND OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE CSRA. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS STRATUS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA. HRRR DATA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHERN GA INTO THE CSRA NEAR DAYBREAK.
MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT REALLY SHOWING ANY RESTRICTIONS BUT TIMING OF
THE STRATUS MOVING NORTHWARD PUTS IT AT AGS/DNL AROUND 11Z-12Z AND
EXPECT IT TO LINGER THROUGH 14Z OR SO. RESTRICTIONS NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT CAE/CUB/OGB. LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KNOTS OBSERVED ON
KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE WHICH IS KEEP DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HIGH AND
PREVENTING POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP SCATTER OUT
THE LOW STRATUS BY LATE MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
148 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DRY WEATHER WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TODAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF RECENT TRENDS AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR CAE
MARCH 16: 88F SET IN 1921
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AGS
MARCH 16: 88F SET IN 1921
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS INDICATED DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH THURSDAY.
FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE CONSISTENT SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THERE REMAINED LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BECAUSE OF MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. COMPARED TO THE GFS THE ECMWF HAS DISPLAYED
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATED A HIGH SPREAD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD POPS
20 TO 70 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING
THE HIGHER VALUES. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAYS FOLLOWING AN AVERAGE OF THE MOS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE MOS INDICATED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING AT AGS/DNL.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR A
NARROW BAND OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE CSRA. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS STRATUS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA. HRRR DATA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHERN GA INTO THE CSRA NEAR DAYBREAK.
MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT REALLY SHOWING ANY RESTRICTIONS BUT TIMING OF
THE STRATUS MOVING NORTHWARD PUTS IT AT AGS/DNL AROUND 11Z-12Z AND
EXPECT IT TO LINGER THROUGH 14Z OR SO. RESTRICTIONS NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT CAE/CUB/OGB. LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KNOTS OBSERVED ON
KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE WHICH IS KEEP DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HIGH AND
PREVENTING POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP SCATTER OUT
THE LOW STRATUS BY LATE MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...
320 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PROPAGATING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY PER GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS FOR MID-
MARCH... CHARACTERIZED BY AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS OF 55-60 INTO CENTRAL IL/WEST CENTRAL IN INCLUDING
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE WFO LOT CWA. WHILE SURFACE FLOW IS BACKED
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM
FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROXIMATELY NEAR A GALESBURG-PONTIAC-
LAFAYETTE LINE. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE WAS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL IL...WITH
SPC RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH CIN WEAKENING TO 100 J/KG OR LESS. DYNAMICS ARE BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AS WELL WITH APPROACH OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL WAVE...WITH 60 KT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AND
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 200-300 M2S2 IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTS INCREASING CU
FIELD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI...WHERE STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND HAS BEEN INDICATED BY HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. ENVIRONMENT
PRIMED FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND RECENT SPC MCD INDICATES
TORNADO WATCH LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN THE ENHANCED
RISK AREA TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. BASED ON HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...EVOLUTION STILL APPEARS TO BE INITIATION 22-23Z TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST... WITH STORMS THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 7-8 PM. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELLULAR STORMS
MOVING INTO THE CWA INITIALLY WITH OUR IL COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-80 LIKELY UNDER THE HIGHEST RISK. WIND AND TORNADO
THREAT...WHILE NOT ZERO...WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE CHICAGO METRO WITH SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH GRADUAL DIURNAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST HOWEVER ALL THE WAY TO
LAKE MICHIGAN AND OUR EASTERN CWA COUNTIES AND STORMS ARRIVE IN
THE 9-10 PM TIME FRAME AND LAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN AND ITS STRONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE IL/WI BORDER REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGH-
BASED INSTABILITY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE WISCONSIN
BORDER WITH DEEP ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING IN SPEED AND BECOMING GUSTY TO
40-45 MPH BY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
VERY DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 500-600 MB WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO/ABOVE 50 MPH BY MIDDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN IL... WITH THE GRADIENT A BIT WEAKER TO THE SOUTH. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE STRONGER GFS WINDS MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE WITH BEST PRESSURE R THIS MORNINGISES TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS WI...THOUGH ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS TO MAINTAIN OUR HIGH
WIND WATCH ACROSS COUNTIES GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80. HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
(SUSTAINED 40 MPH /GUSTS 58 MPH). WITH GUSTY WINDS MODELS ARE
LIKELY TOO QUICK TO DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY
SEE WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
WITH GOOD MIXING...HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
TONIGHT...MID TO UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
244 PM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A STEADY COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE REVERSING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COLDEST DAY TIME TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF THAT. THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY ALLOWING
THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE U.P.
OF MICHIGAN TO QUICKLY WEAKEN. THIS WILL LEAVE A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. WEAK ENERGY WILL
MOVE DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH WHILE A DEEPER UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS QUEBEC WHICH THEN RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
AID IN THE SHARPENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMNANT FROM THE OLD
GREAT LAKES LOW THEN DRAW IT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY
SATURDAY. A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR EARLY BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S CHANGES ANYTHING TO RAIN INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SIGNAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. THE UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS EAST INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS SHARP RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW AS THE TROUGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND RIDGING CONTINUES WEST. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW PERHAPS LEADING
TO MINIMAL POPS CHANCES MONDAY. THE RIDGING WILL SHARPEN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE AT PRECIP. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. MID NEXT WEEK AND
A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST BUT DETAILS DIFFER QUITE A BIT. A
TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME DOES LOOK
FAVORED FOR MID WEEK.
MDB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF
50 TO 55 MPH. WITH SUN EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
POSSIBLY ALL DAY IN PLACES...MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY TO DIP
TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. RAINFALL TONIGHT IN ADDITION TO EXISTING FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 15 PERCENT SHOULD PREVENT TRUE RED
FLAG CRITERIA...BUT BREEZY AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AT
LEAST BE NEAR THRESHOLDS...AND WITH THE DEEPER MIXING 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES COULD NEAR 10 PERCENT IF AREAS...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH OF THE CHICAGO AREA...ESCAPE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
MTF/KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
1219 AM...MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...
NORTH OF RFD. NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN IA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST IL THAT THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE IS LOW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN THE TEMPO FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
WIND SHIFT APPARENT ON RADAR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN KANE COUNTY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WILL COUNTY...WHICH MARKS THE WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS/GUSTS ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS SHIFT...THOUGH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DON/T LOOK AS STRONG OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS GUSTS
INTO THE 30KT RANGE. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO MIX LATER THIS
MORNING...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AND STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40 KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET. WIND DIRECTION APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
326 AM CDT
HEADLINES...HAVE A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE WATERS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE OVER THE NSH WATERS BY MID
MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE.
THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN WI WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING
GUSTS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 40-50 KT OVER LAND THIS MORNING AND
BLEED INTO THE NSH WATERS. THINKING THE AIR OVER THE OPEN WATERS IS
STABLE ENOUGH THAT ONLY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. GUSTS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW WEAKENS
OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE. HOWEVER...HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE
THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE
LAKE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND IT. THE
PATTERN THEN MELLOWS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE LAKES
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND AGAIN MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
WEDNESDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-
ILZ039...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...7 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9
AM WEDNESDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...9 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1219 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...
320 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PROPAGATING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY PER GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS FOR MID-
MARCH... CHARACTERIZED BY AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS OF 55-60 INTO CENTRAL IL/WEST CENTRAL IN INCLUDING
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE WFO LOT CWA. WHILE SURFACE FLOW IS BACKED
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM
FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROXIMATELY NEAR A GALESBURG-PONTIAC-
LAFAYETTE LINE. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE WAS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL IL...WITH
SPC RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH CIN WEAKENING TO 100 J/KG OR LESS. DYNAMICS ARE BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AS WELL WITH APPROACH OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL WAVE...WITH 60 KT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AND
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 200-300 M2S2 IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTS INCREASING CU
FIELD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI...WHERE STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND HAS BEEN INDICATED BY HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. ENVIRONMENT
PRIMED FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND RECENT SPC MCD INDICATES
TORNADO WATCH LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN THE ENHANCED
RISK AREA TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. BASED ON HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...EVOLUTION STILL APPEARS TO BE INITIATION 22-23Z TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST... WITH STORMS THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 7-8 PM. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELLULAR STORMS
MOVING INTO THE CWA INITIALLY WITH OUR IL COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-80 LIKELY UNDER THE HIGHEST RISK. WIND AND TORNADO
THREAT...WHILE NOT ZERO...WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE CHICAGO METRO WITH SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH GRADUAL DIURNAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST HOWEVER ALL THE WAY TO
LAKE MICHIGAN AND OUR EASTERN CWA COUNTIES AND STORMS ARRIVE IN
THE 9-10 PM TIME FRAME AND LAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN AND ITS STRONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE IL/WI BORDER REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGH-
BASED INSTABILITY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE WISCONSIN
BORDER WITH DEEP ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING IN SPEED AND BECOMING GUSTY TO
40-45 MPH BY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
VERY DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 500-600 MB WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO/ABOVE 50 MPH BY MIDDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN IL... WITH THE GRADIENT A BIT WEAKER TO THE SOUTH. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE STRONGER GFS WINDS MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WI...THOUGH
ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS TO MAINTAIN OUR HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS
COUNTIES GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80. HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
(SUSTAINED 40 MPH /GUSTS 58 MPH). WITH GUSTY WINDS MODELS ARE
LIKELY TOO QUICK TO DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY
SEE WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
WITH GOOD MIXING...HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
TONIGHT...MID TO UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
244 PM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A STEADY COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE REVERSING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COLDEST DAY TIME TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF THAT. THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY ALLOWING
THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE U.P.
OF MICHIGAN TO QUICKLY WEAKEN. THIS WILL LEAVE A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. WEAK ENERGY WILL
MOVE DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH WHILE A DEEPER UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS QUEBEC WHICH THEN RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
AID IN THE SHARPENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMNANT FROM THE OLD
GREAT LAKES LOW THEN DRAW IT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY
SATURDAY. A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR EARLY BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S CHANGES ANYTHING TO RAIN INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SIGNAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. THE UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS EAST INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS SHARP RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW AS THE TROUGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND RIDGING CONTINUES WEST. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW PERHAPS LEADING
TO MINIMAL POPS CHANCES MONDAY. THE RIDGING WILL SHARPEN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE AT PRECIP. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. MID NEXT WEEK AND
A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST BUT DETAILS DIFFER QUITE A BIT. A
TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME DOES LOOK
FAVORED FOR MID WEEK.
MDB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF
50 TO 55 MPH. WITH SUN EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
POSSIBLY ALL DAY IN PLACES...MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY TO DIP
TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. RAINFALL TONIGHT IN ADDITION TO EXISTING FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 15 PERCENT SHOULD PREVENT TRUE RED
FLAG CRITERIA...BUT BREEZY AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AT
LEAST BE NEAR THRESHOLDS...AND WITH THE DEEPER MIXING 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES COULD NEAR 10 PERCENT IF AREAS...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH OF THE CHICAGO AREA...ESCAPE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
MTF/KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
1219 AM...MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...
NORTH OF RFD. NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN IA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST IL THAT THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE IS LOW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN THE TEMPO FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
WIND SHIFT APPARENT ON RADAR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN KANE COUNTY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WILL COUNTY...WHICH MARKS THE WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS/GUSTS ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS SHIFT...THOUGH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DON/T LOOK AS STRONG OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS GUSTS
INTO THE 30KT RANGE. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO MIX LATER THIS
MORNING...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AND STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40 KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET. WIND DIRECTION APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CDT
A STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WILL
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS (35 KT GALES)
LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY.
THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND. LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH DOWN
THE LAKE...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...7 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
HIGH WIND WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022...7 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
IN...HIGH WIND WATCH...INZ001-INZ002...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
WEDNESDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY.
STORM WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1204 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Deepening surface low now over west central Illinois this evening
with the warm front extending east southeast from the low over
central to southeast Illinois. Dew points have risen to around
60 degrees across our area this evening ahead of the strong low.
Strongest storms will continue to edge east northeast ahead of
the surface low for the rest of the evening. Tornado watch number
44 has been extended to 10 pm CDT and we may need to add some
counties further east over the next few hours as well. Updated
zone forecast with the new watch extension time will be out
in the next 10-15 minutes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 997mb low over northeast Missouri,
with a warm front extending E/SE across south-central Illinois.
Despite the presence of this forcing, convection has not yet
materialized across Missouri or Illinois as the atmosphere remains
capped. The short-wave trough that will eventually approach from
the west and break the cap is still well to the west across western
Kansas/Nebraska, so think cap will hold firm through the remainder
of the afternoon. HRRR has been consistently showing scattered
thunderstorms developing along the trailing cold front across
eastern Missouri after 21z/4pm...with the activity then tracking
E/NE into central Illinois this evening. 4km WRF-NMM has similar
timing, and both high-res models suggest the storms will quickly
shift out of the KILX CWA by midnight. Given strong directional low-
level wind shear in the vicinity of the warm front, the main mode of
any convection that develops later today will be supercellular. As
such, damaging wind gusts and large hail remain the primary
threats...although a few tornadoes will also be possible mainly
along and northwest of the I-55 corridor. Have therefore included
likely PoPs and mentioned severe weather across the western half of
the CWA this evening accordingly. Any convection that fires will
rapidly push eastward out of the area by midnight, with only a few
lingering rain showers across the NW from the Peoria area northward
after midnight. Once the storms pass, strong/gusty southwesterly
winds will develop, with forecast soundings and numeric guidance
suggesting gusts of 30-35 mph. Overnight lows will drop into the
middle to upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Deepening surface low pressure forecast to push into central
Wisconsin by 12z Wednesday with a tight pressure gradient over most
of the forecast area during the day. Forecast soundings showing 40-
45 kts just off the surface tomorrow mid morning through the
afternoon hours so wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph look likely over
most of the area, except south of the Interstate 70 corridor. As
a result, a wind advisory will be issued for a good portion of
the forecast area for tomorrow. Areas north of I-74 will get close
to some warning criteria winds, especially if the wrap around
moisture/clouds stay to our north like most of the models suggest.
Despite the passage of the cold front this evening, temperatures
will be mild again on Wednesday, although not as warm as today.
Look for highs to climb into the 60s most areas.
The strong surface low will begin to fill across the lower Great
Lakes on Thursday as upper level energy is transferred over to the
East Coast. This will result in an elongated surface trof from the
new low off New England west through the southern Great Lakes.
This feature will gradually slide south bringing a more extensive
cloud band south with it and the threat for some light precip
starting on Friday night and continuing on and off into Saturday
night. We may see a mix of rain and snow across our north Friday
night into early Saturday morning, and possibly again late
Saturday night into Sunday. No accumulations are expected with any
snow that does occur across our north.
The upper trof will gradually work its way southeast across the
Great Lakes on Sunday and Monday with rather cool temperatures
prevailing, at least compared to what we have had over the past
couple of days. However, with the trof being more progressive, the
cool down will not last long as most medium range models suggest
the trof will shift off to our east by early next week with more
of a zonal flow developing over the Midwest resulting in a gradual
moderating trend through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Storms have moved out of the area but some clouds remain over some
of the sites. SPI and DEC should be scattered out by issuance time
with clouds remaining over CMI/PIA and DEC for several hours this
evening. Will keep -SHRA at PIA and BMI for several hours as well
given the returns still on radar. Scattered clouds will continue
overnight and then clear out for the day tomorrow. Could be some
cirrus come into the area during the evening but will leave out
for now. Winds will be westerly through the period with windy
conditions increasing in speed during the daytime hours...with
gusts up to 35kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
628 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON RAP UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA.
THE FIRST IS NEAR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
WITH SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. SEVERAL
WEAK BANDS OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF OUR CWA.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
AT LEAST A LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS COMBINING WITH EAST-NORTHEAST MOIST FLOW NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. POPS/TIMING WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
NOW MENTIONED ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS
STILL INDICATION FROM SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE OF A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CSI WITH NEAR NEUTRAL
THETA E LAPSE RATES WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL MORE
FOCUSED/INTENSE SNOW BANDS TO FORM. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING (OR WHERE) AND I LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE IDEA OF LESS
INSTABILITY/BROADER LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE.
TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS PRECIP WINDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES EASTWARD AND FRONTOGENESIS TRANSITIONS OUT OF OUR CWA.
REGARDING PRECIP TYPE...MOISTURE PROFILES STILL APPEAR TO BE
PROBLEMATIC IN OUR EASTERN CWA...WITH WET BULB SURFACE TEMPS IN THE
33-35F RANGE. THIS COULD MEAN THAT LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST (WHERE THE
STRONGER QPF SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE IS) WOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OR JUST RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON PRECIP OCCURRENCE WITH HIGHS LINGERING NEAR WET BULB
TEMPS UNLESS PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR CLEARING WOULD BE IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS THAT
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MAINLY
SNOW. THE OTHER COMPLICATION WILL BE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
WHICH COULD EAT INTO ANY POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS (BARRING HEAVIER
SNOW RATES). IN ANY CASE IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF OUR CWA SHOULD SEE
1-2" OF SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN NW
KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO...AND LESS IN SW NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TRI STATE
REGION WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST...COINCIDING WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN ROCKIES...THAT WILL SHIFT SURFACE FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO
MORE SOUTHERLY BY 06Z SATURDAY...THUS ENDING UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM 06Z SATURDAY ONWARD WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FOR NEXT MONDAY ON THRU TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH BUILDING H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS IS GOING TO
CREATE DOWNSLOPE MIDLEVEL FLOW THAT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. H5 RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST FAIRLY PROGRESSIVELY BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE PLAINS REGION SEEING A SHORTWAVE AFFECT
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...MOVING ESE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS SHIFTING UPPER
LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THE RESULT WILL BE LESS QPF FOR THE
CWA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
FOR TEMPS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BEHIND
DISSIPATING SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THRU THE DAY. NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS...WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS...ONLY TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BACK TO THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER.
FOR PRECIPITATION...LINGERING -SW ON FRIDAY NIGHT COULD GIVE EASTERN
COLORADO VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUM LESS THAN AN INCH. SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MIDWEEK WILL BRING A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ONLY UP TO A
POTENTIAL 0.10" QPF...INCLUDING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW.
FOR WINDS/RH...POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO INCREASE NEAR
20MPH SATURDAY BUT SHOULD TIL SUNDAY. MONDAY/TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS REACHING 10-20 MPH W/ SOME LOCALES REACHING HIGHER FOR BRIEF
PERIODS...ALONG WITH LOW RH READINGS MONDAY/TUESDAY NEAR 15-20
PERCENT...COULD CREATE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY COULD HAVE AREA SEEING GUSTS NEAR 30+
MPH WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS AT GLD WILL START OUT VFR WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND TURNING TO LIGHT SNOW BY 06Z. BETWEEN
12Z-26Z...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR WITH INTERMITTENT
IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER 16Z
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BETWEEN 18-20Z AS LIGHT SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH AS IT TRANSITIONS AND MIXES WITH LIGHT RAIN.
MCK WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
INTERMITTENT MVFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 04Z-16Z AS SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TURN TO SNOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 16Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
300 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS NW FLOW EXTENDING FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK
NORTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE CU AND
A FEW SPRINKLES NEAR OUR CWA. DUE TO A SUB CLOUD LAYER OF TD
DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 20-30F THROUGH 10 KFT AGL THIS HAS MAINLY
BEEN VIRGA. IF WE WERE TO SEE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPDRAFT FORM WE
COULD SEE EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES AID PRECIP REACHING
GROUND...POSSIBLY AS A FEW SNOW FLAKES. I KEPT SPRINKLE MENTION
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HELP STABILIZE
CONDITIONS AND PUT AN END TO ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY MEASURABLE IS LOW DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY LAYER.
TONIGHT...LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT COULD INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS COLD ENOUGH
THAT WITH LIGHT WINDS LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS OUR CWA.
IF WE WEE MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
TEENS.
THURSDAY...MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER BELOW
700MB/10KFT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL. STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT WE SHOULD HAVE
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LIMITING
VERTICAL UPDRAFTS. I LEFT SPRINKLE MENTION OUT AND KEPT POPS SILENT.
DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORTS GOOD MIXING
TOMORROW...HOWEVER AS LEE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THE AIR MASS MAY
NOT SEE AS MUCH OF A RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE WILL PROBABLY
SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S (SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY). WINDS ALOFT AREA ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN...SO DESPITE GOOD MIXING WE LIKELY WONT SEE RFW CONDITIONS
DESPITE RH VALUES DROPPING TO 15 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
UPPER SYSTEM THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THEN TRACK EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND.
A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA THU-FRI AS THE UPPER LOW GETS MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE N
PLAINS. A 95 KT JET STREAK WILL BE ORIENTED FROM WESTERN MT TO
NORTHERN CO INTO NORTHERN KANSAS WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE A 12-18
HOUR PERIOD OF UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS AN INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY EVENING...GRADUALLY
MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW AS IT OVERSPREADS NORTHERN KANSAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW. AT THIS TIME THE THINKING IS
INITIAL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
ACCUMULATING GIVEN AVERAGE SOIL TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 40S AND
LIGHTER SNOW RATES...BUT AS HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES OCCUR
FRIDAY MORNING THE FORECAST REFLECTS ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S IN
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK TO MOVE OUT WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY RECOVERING TO THE MIDDLE 40S AND UP TO
AROUND 60 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW 12KT AND
SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE REBUILDS IN EASTERN
COLORADO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS NW FLOW EXTENDING FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK
NORTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE CU AND
A FEW SPRINKLES NEAR OUR CWA. DUE TO A SUB CLOUD LAYER OF TD
DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 20-30F THROUGH 10 KFT AGL THIS HAS MAINLY
BEEN VIRGA. IF WE WERE TO SEE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPDRAFT FORM WE
COULD SEE EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES AID PRECIP REACHING
GROUND...POSSIBLY AS A FEW SNOW FLAKES. I KEPT SPRINKLE MENTION
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HELP STABILIZE
CONDITIONS AND PUT AN END TO ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY MEASURABLE IS LOW DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY LAYER.
TONIGHT...LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT COULD INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS COLD ENOUGH
THAT WITH LIGHT WINDS LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS OUR CWA.
IF WE WEE MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
TEENS.
THURSDAY...MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER BELOW
700MB/10KFT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL. STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT WE SHOULD HAVE
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LIMITING
VERTICAL UPDRAFTS. I LEFT SPRINKLE MENTION OUT AND KEPT POPS SILENT.
DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORTS GOOD MIXING
TOMORROW...HOWEVER AS LEE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THE AIR MASS MAY
NOT SEE AS MUCH OF A RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE WILL PROBABLY
SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S (SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY). WINDS ALOFT AREA ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN...SO DESPITE GOOD MIXING WE LIKELY WONT SEE RFW CONDITIONS
DESPITE RH VALUES DROPPING TO 15 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO
THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL
FOR ALL PERIODS.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 50 SATURDAY WARMING TO THE
LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND LOWER 70S MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY RANGING FROM 65 TO 70. MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 20S. MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD MODERATE TO THE LOWER 30S AND THE UPPER 30S MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW 12KT AND
SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE REBUILDS IN EASTERN
COLORADO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1220 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Low pressure system that impacted the area yesterday continues to
deepen eastward this morning towards the Great Lakes region. Strong
winds coming in the backside of the system have translated to the
sfc with westerly winds at around 10 mph at the current hour.
Meanwhile an area of sfc high pressure over western Kansas has
gradually spread toward the CWA overnight, dropping dewpoints over
central KS into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
For today, main concern will be the critical fire weather over most
of the CWA. Additional details are listed in the Fire Weather
Section below. Westerly winds are expected to increase by mid
afternoon as diurnal heating and drier air within the boundary layer
push 30 kt winds towards the sfc. Latest runs of the GFS and NAM are
not as strong with the unidirectional westerly winds compared to the
latest runs of the HRRR and RUC. Dependent on how deep the boundary
layer is able to mix out will determine how strong winds become. I
went with a blend of the mean values using a slight preference for
the RUC and HRRR resulting in sustained sfc speeds at 15 to 25 mph.
Cloud cover will also be a determining factor as a mid level impulse
tracks through southeast KS by the afternoon. The associated jet
streak with this wave may help sustain the stronger winds despite
the increasing cloud cover. Highs today are overall cooler behind
the cold front with readings in the lower 60s. Skies clear tonight
with winds becoming light. Lows near freezing are anticipated,
ranging from the lower to middle 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
West to northwest flow aloft will continue Thursday through Monday.
Temperatures will be mild on Thursday with a continued very dry
airmass, ample sunshine, and very deep mixing of the boundary layer.
This will result in another day of very dry surface RH although
winds should be lighter than on Wednesday. Details regarding this
and other fire weather can be found below in the fire weather
section. Temperatures are likely to range from the upper 50s north
to the mid 60s in east central KS.
Changes are expected Thursday night into Friday as an upper low
builds over the northern Plains and moderate cold advection builds
into Kansas. The airmass on Thursday night will start out very dry,
but all model guidance is suggesting a zone of strong frontogenesis
associated with this cold advection over parts of the forecast area.
The temperature profile associated with the frontogenesis region
will also lend itself to supporting slantwise and vertical
instability. So, while there will be a lot of dry air to overcome,
it seems likely that given the magnitude of vertical motion a band
of light to moderate precipitation will develop from northwest into
central and southeast Kansas through the night and into Friday
morning. The north edge of this precipitation band is likely to have
a very sharp cutoff from no precipitation to moderate precipitation
and there is some uncertainty regarding where that cutoff will be.
Temperature profiles will initially be quite warm, but assuming the
wet-bulb effect do see potential for a change over to at least a
period of snow. The best chance for this to occur will be in areas
where the precipitation is longest-lived to have the best chance to
wet-bulb as cool as possible. Given moderate rates, there is some
potential for minor accumulation in a band across the area, with the
best chance probably south of a Minneapolis to Abilene to Garnett
line.
The main upper low will move just northeast of the area late
Saturday and see some small potential sprinkles mainly in eastern
Kansas but have kept the forecast dry at this time. Temperatures
will be cooler but only slightly below normal through the weekend
before another big warm-up is expected going into next week. There
is a very strong signal for the upper flow pattern to build a ridge
into the plains on Monday and then turn to southwesterly flow by
Tuesday and Wednesday. This would likely bring temperatures back
into the 70s while opening the Gulf to northward moisture
transport.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
For the 18z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Westerly winds should become gusty at 18-25kts this afternoon
before quickly diminishing by early this evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Per the discussion above, winds are the main uncertainty for today
while the RH values very likely to fall into the 15 to 25 percent
range. Areas over north central KS may even reach the lower teens
percent-wise if deeper mixing is realized. Elsewhere, areas along
the I-70 corridor and points southward are likely to reach the 15
to 20 percent range for RH. Westerly winds are expected to
gradually increase between 15 and 20 mph by mid afternoon. Gusts
between 25 and 30 are most likely to occur in the 1 PM to 4 PM
time frame before quickly dropping off thereafter. Locations to
see these conditions are generally south of Interstate 70 with
some uncertainty towards the northern portions of Republic,
Pottawatomie, Jackson, and Jefferson counties where the winds may
be not as gusty despite the low RH values. Overall, the short term
guidance favors a more deeply mixed boundary layer with the
stronger winds, so have coordinated with surrounding offices to
issue a Red Flag Warning in effect this afternoon through 7 PM.
RH on Thursday is expected to be very dry once again, likely in the
13 to 23 percent range with the highest values in far northeast
Kansas. The difference on Thursday is the expectation for lighter
winds. The pressure gradient is likely to weaken significantly by
Thursday with sustained winds in the 5 to 15 mph range through the
day. The wild card is the potential for gusts in the very-well-
mixed low levels. Peak mixing heights are likely to be in the
7000-10000 foot range with stronger winds (greater than 30 kts)
present above 8000 feet. This presents a small chance for brief
but stronger gusts to mix down to the surface. With that in mind,
the potential is not high enough to be too concerned with right
now and will most likely see 5-15 mph winds with occasional
sporadic gusts to around 20 mph.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Hennecke
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen/Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
621 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Low pressure system that impacted the area yesterday continues to
deepen eastward this morning towards the Great Lakes region. Strong
winds coming in the backside of the system have translated to the
sfc with westerly winds at around 10 mph at the current hour.
Meanwhile an area of sfc high pressure over western Kansas has
gradually spread toward the CWA overnight, dropping dewpoints over
central KS into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
For today, main concern will be the critical fire weather over most
of the CWA. Additional details are listed in the Fire Weather
Section below. Westerly winds are expected to increase by mid
afternoon as diurnal heating and drier air within the boundary layer
push 30 kt winds towards the sfc. Latest runs of the GFS and NAM are
not as strong with the unidirectional westerly winds compared to the
latest runs of the HRRR and RUC. Dependent on how deep the boundary
layer is able to mix out will determine how strong winds become. I
went with a blend of the mean values using a slight preference for
the RUC and HRRR resulting in sustained sfc speeds at 15 to 25 mph.
Cloud cover will also be a determining factor as a mid level impulse
tracks through southeast KS by the afternoon. The associated jet
streak with this wave may help sustain the stronger winds despite
the increasing cloud cover. Highs today are overall cooler behind
the cold front with readings in the lower 60s. Skies clear tonight
with winds becoming light. Lows near freezing are anticipated,
ranging from the lower to middle 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
West to northwest flow aloft will continue Thursday through Monday.
Temperatures will be mild on Thursday with a continued very dry
airmass, ample sunshine, and very deep mixing of the boundary layer.
This will result in another day of very dry surface RH although
winds should be lighter than on Wednesday. Details regarding this
and other fire weather can be found below in the fire weather
section. Temperatures are likely to range from the upper 50s north
to the mid 60s in east central KS.
Changes are expected Thursday night into Friday as an upper low
builds over the northern Plains and moderate cold advection builds
into Kansas. The airmass on Thursday night will start out very dry,
but all model guidance is suggesting a zone of strong frontogenesis
associated with this cold advection over parts of the forecast area.
The temperature profile associated with the frontogenesis region
will also lend itself to supporting slantwise and vertical
instability. So, while there will be a lot of dry air to overcome,
it seems likely that given the magnitude of vertical motion a band
of light to moderate precipitation will develop from northwest into
central and southeast Kansas through the night and into Friday
morning. The north edge of this precipitation band is likely to have
a very sharp cutoff from no precipitation to moderate precipitation
and there is some uncertainty regarding where that cutoff will be.
Temperature profiles will initially be quite warm, but assuming the
wet-bulb effect do see potential for a change over to at least a
period of snow. The best chance for this to occur will be in areas
where the precipitation is longest-lived to have the best chance to
wet-bulb as cool as possible. Given moderate rates, there is some
potential for minor accumulation in a band across the area, with the
best chance probably south of a Minneapolis to Abilene to Garnett
line.
The main upper low will move just northeast of the area late
Saturday and see some small potential sprinkles mainly in eastern
Kansas but have kept the forecast dry at this time. Temperatures
will be cooler but only slightly below normal through the weekend
before another big warm-up is expected going into next week. There
is a very strong signal for the upper flow pattern to build a ridge
into the plains on Monday and then turn to southwesterly flow by
Tuesday and Wednesday. This would likely bring temperatures back
into the 70s while opening the Gulf to northward moisture
transport.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR prevails as westerly winds increase aft 16Z initially at 10 to
13 kts sustained, rising between 15 to 18 kts sustained aft
19Z.Winds calm aft 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Per the discussion above, winds are the main uncertainty for today
while the RH values very likely to fall into the 15 to 25 percent
range. Areas over north central KS may even reach the lower teens
percent-wise if deeper mixing is realized. Elsewhere, areas along
the I-70 corridor and points southward are likely to reach the 15
to 20 percent range for RH. Westerly winds are expected to
gradually increase between 15 and 20 mph by mid afternoon. Gusts
between 25 and 30 are most likely to occur in the 1 PM to 4 PM
time frame before quickly dropping off thereafter. Locations to
see these conditions are generally south of Interstate 70 with
some uncertainty towards the northern portions of Republic,
Pottawatomie, Jackson, and Jefferson counties where the winds may
be not as gusty despite the low RH values. Overall, the short term
guidance favors a more deeply mixed boundary layer with the
stronger winds, so have coordinated with surrounding offices to
issue a Red Flag Warning in effect this afternoon through 7 PM.
RH on Thursday is expected to be very dry once again, likely in the
13 to 23 percent range with the highest values in far northeast
Kansas. The difference on Thursday is the expectation for lighter
winds. The pressure gradient is likely to weaken significantly by
Thursday with sustained winds in the 5 to 15 mph range through the
day. The wild card is the potential for gusts in the very-well-
mixed low levels. Peak mixing heights are likely to be in the
7000-10000 foot range with stronger winds (greater than 30 kts)
present above 8000 feet. This presents a small chance for brief
but stronger gusts to mix down to the surface. With that in mind,
the potential is not high enough to be too concerned with right
now and will most likely see 5-15 mph winds with occasional
sporadic gusts to around 20 mph.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ008-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Bowen
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen/Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
336 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Low pressure system that impacted the area yesterday continues to
deepen eastward this morning towards the Great Lakes region. Strong
winds coming in the backside of the system have translated to the
sfc with westerly winds at around 10 mph at the current hour.
Meanwhile an area of sfc high pressure over western Kansas has
gradually spread toward the CWA overnight, dropping dewpoints over
central KS into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
For today, main concern will be the critical fire weather over most
of the CWA. Additional details are listed in the Fire Weather
Section below. Westerly winds are expected to increase by mid
afternoon as diurnal heating and drier air within the boundary layer
push 30 kt winds towards the sfc. Latest runs of the GFS and NAM are
not as strong with the unidirectional westerly winds compared to the
latest runs of the HRRR and RUC. Dependent on how deep the boundary
layer is able to mix out will determine how strong winds become. I
went with a blend of the mean values using a slight preference for
the RUC and HRRR resulting in sustained sfc speeds at 15 to 25 mph.
Cloud cover will also be a determining factor as a mid level impulse
tracks through southeast KS by the afternoon. The associated jet
streak with this wave may help sustain the stronger winds despite
the increasing cloud cover. Highs today are overall cooler behind
the cold front with readings in the lower 60s. Skies clear tonight
with winds becoming light. Lows near freezing are anticipated,
ranging from the lower to middle 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
West to northwest flow aloft will continue Thursday through Monday.
Temperatures will be mild on Thursday with a continued very dry
airmass, ample sunshine, and very deep mixing of the boundary layer.
This will result in another day of very dry surface RH although
winds should be lighter than on Wednesday. Details regarding this
and other fire weather can be found below in the fire weather
section. Temperatures are likely to range from the upper 50s north
to the mid 60s in east central KS.
Changes are expected Thursday night into Friday as an upper low
builds over the northern Plains and moderate cold advection builds
into Kansas. The airmass on Thursday night will start out very dry,
but all model guidance is suggesting a zone of strong frontogenesis
associated with this cold advection over parts of the forecast area.
The temperature profile associated with the frontogenesis region
will also lend itself to supporting slantwise and vertical
instability. So, while there will be a lot of dry air to overcome,
it seems likely that given the magnitude of vertical motion a band
of light to moderate precipitation will develop from northwest into
central and southeast Kansas through the night and into Friday
morning. The north edge of this precipitation band is likely to have
a very sharp cutoff from no precipitation to moderate precipitation
and there is some uncertainty regarding where that cutoff will be.
Temperature profiles will initially be quite warm, but assuming the
wet-bulb effect do see potential for a change over to at least a
period of snow. The best chance for this to occur will be in areas
where the precipitation is longest-lived to have the best chance to
wet-bulb as cool as possible. Given moderate rates, there is some
potential for minor accumulation in a band across the area, with the
best chance probably south of a Minneapolis to Abilene to Garnett
line.
The main upper low will move just northeast of the area late
Saturday and see some small potential sprinkles mainly in eastern
Kansas but have kept the forecast dry at this time. Temperatures
will be cooler but only slightly below normal through the weekend
before another big warm-up is expected going into next week. There
is a very strong signal for the upper flow pattern to build a ridge
into the plains on Monday and then turn to southwesterly flow by
Tuesday and Wednesday. This would likely bring temperatures back
into the 70s while opening the Gulf to northward moisture
transport.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Wind continues to be the primary TAF concern for next 24 hours.
Winds have diminished at MHK and should at TOP/FOE in next hour.
Mixing picks back up mid to late morning with gusts in the 20s
possible, but worth noting that a few models indicate max possible
gusts of 40 kts possible late Wednesday afternoon if deep mixing
occurs. Think more likely that would see an average in the column,
more towards 30kts. Will need to monitor. Winds diminish after
00z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Per the discussion above, winds are the main uncertainty for today
while the RH values very likely to fall into the 15 to 25 percent
range. Areas over north central KS may even reach the lower teens
percent-wise if deeper mixing is realized. Elsewhere, areas along
the I-70 corridor and points southward are likely to reach the 15
to 20 percent range for RH. Westerly winds are expected to
gradually increase between 15 and 20 mph by mid afternoon. Gusts
between 25 and 30 are most likely to occur in the 1 PM to 4 PM
time frame before quickly dropping off thereafter. Locations to
see these conditions are generally south of Interstate 70 with
some uncertainty towards the northern portions of Republic,
Pottawatomie, Jackson, and Jefferson counties where the winds may
be not as gusty despite the low RH values. Overall, the short term
guidance favors a more deeply mixed boundary layer with the
stronger winds, so have coordinated with surrounding offices to
issue a Red Flag Warning in effect this afternoon through 7 PM.
RH on Thursday is expected to be very dry once again, likely in the
13 to 23 percent range with the highest values in far northeast
Kansas. The difference on Thursday is the expectation for lighter
winds. The pressure gradient is likely to weaken significantly by
Thursday with sustained winds in the 5 to 15 mph range through the
day. The wild card is the potential for gusts in the very-well-
mixed low levels. Peak mixing heights are likely to be in the
7000-10000 foot range with stronger winds (greater than 30 kts)
present above 8000 feet. This presents a small chance for brief
but stronger gusts to mix down to the surface. With that in mind,
the potential is not high enough to be too concerned with right
now and will most likely see 5-15 mph winds with occasional
sporadic gusts to around 20 mph.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ008-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...67
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen/Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
205 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
DRY/BREEZY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE
OF THIS MORNING/S FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEADING TO BORDERLINE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION INTO THE
BIG SANDY REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING EAST THROUGH KY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF
3 AM IT REACHED FROM NEAR BOWLING GREEN TO JUST WEST OF
LOUISVILLE. ISOLATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING NEAR
THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN ABOUT 5 AM AND 8 AM. BEHIND IT...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MIXING.
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PROPELLED THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED. BOTH
MODELS START THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
PLUNGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FLOW
CHANGES A BIT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT THE MODELS
HAVE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WESTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A VIGOROUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES SO...THE MODELS HAVE THIS
SMALLER SCALE SYSTEM PHASING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH. THESE TWO SYSTEMS...ONCE
THEY COMBINE...ARE FORECAST TO TAP INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
MOISTURE BEFORE THE PHASED LOW MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
BEING THE NEW WORK WEEK. BEFORE THIS PHASING HAPPENS...WE CAN
EXPECT THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TO TAP JUST ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY OVER THE WEEKEND...AS MUCH COOLER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO
AN END SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE SMALL SCALE WAVE MERGES WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MENTIONED BEFORE.
THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION...SO WE WILL LIKELY BE SEEING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...OR PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES...FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS TO START OFF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING US A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. IN
FACT...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WE MAY SEE HIGHS IN CLIMBING TO AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY. EACH
NIGHT DURING THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WITH MIN VALUES IN THE 30S EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL
NIGHTS. SOME OUR DEEPER AND NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS MAY EVEN FALL
TO AROUND 32 THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE COLD AS WELL...AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR
AREA...ALLOWING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO SPILL INTO THE REGION.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM COULD MORE PRECIPITATION TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...BUT THERE IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT TO PUT MUCH STOCK
IN WHAT THE WEATHER MAY OR MAY NOT BE DOING NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY/GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHES KSME/KLOZ
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK WILL
SKIRT ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A
SUBTLE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
FIRE WX WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS
POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR A RFW...BUT
IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
JUST SHY OF CRITICAL VALUES...WITH THE BLUEGRASS REGION BEING
CLOSEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY DROP BELOW THE 25 PERCENT
THRESHOLD...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GUSEMAN
FIRE WEATHER...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1207 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Above average confidence in the long term due to mostly quiet
weather and relatively good model agreement.
Through the short term period the region remains in either zonal or
broad cyclonic flow aloft with the Gulf of Mexico cut off for most
of the period so moisture will be limited.
A few high clouds are expected to stream across the area today,
otherwise high pressure should provide another pleasant day for the
lower Ohio valley.
The passage of a weak H5 ripple of energy this afternoon and evening
should do nothing more than bring a layer of mid clouds across the
area. The HRRR implies some weak radar returns across the middle of
our CWA (W-E) in that time frame, but with clouds bases so high, any
precipitation should evaporate before reaching the ground. Besides,
with the exception of the SREF, all deterministic model runs keep it
dry so will go dry for now.
High pressure is expected to keep the region dry and cooler through
Friday morning. Precipitation chances make their way back into the
forecast Friday afternoon with the approach of a decent H5 short
wave and slightly higher deep layer moisture. Precipitation chances
increase slightly Friday night with the passage of said short wave.
Above normal temperatures during the first half of the short term
period are expected to cool to near normal in the second half of the
period.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Medium range models indicate that mid/upper level energy pinched off
from an elongated low previously over the Great Lakes will begin to
dig into the central CONUS by the beginning of the extended forecast
period. A decent surface pressure gradient across the PAH forecast
area between high pressure in the central Plains and a low off the
FL coast will keep a flow of dry cool air in the low levels. Thus,
it will be somewhat difficult to get much in the way of measurable
rain from the system as it passes right over our region early
Sunday. We will go with a slight chance of measurable rainfall with
this event.
After Sunday, northern stream mid/upper level shortwave energy is
progged to dominate much of the eastern CONUS and sweep away the
aforementioned system to the east. Dry weather should prevail across
the PAH forecast area through at least Tuesday as the mid/upper flow
transitions to more of a ridging pattern. Tuesday (Day 7) should be
breezy as another surface pressure gradient sets up between an
approaching low pressure/frontal system to the west and high
pressure along the Atlantic seaboard. Dry low level return flow will
result in a warming trend from 30s/50s to 40s/60s by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
The TAFs are VFR, as mid and high clouds stream across the region
in fast nearly zonal flow aloft. West to southwest winds will
prevail through the period, as well. Gusts 20-25kts will be
possible both this afternoon and late Thursday morning at KEVV and
KOWB. There should be enough wind through the night to prevent fog
formation.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
806 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS TRENDS. SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF
THE AREA SHORTLY. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS AN ADJUSTMENT TO DEW POINTS
FOR THE DROP TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING EAST THROUGH KY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF
3 AM IT REACHED FROM NEAR BOWLING GREEN TO JUST WEST OF
LOUISVILLE. ISOLATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING NEAR
THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN ABOUT 5 AM AND 8 AM. BEHIND IT...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MIXING.
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PROPELLED THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED. BOTH
MODELS START THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
PLUNGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FLOW
CHANGES A BIT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT THE MODELS
HAVE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WESTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A VIGOROUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES SO...THE MODELS HAVE THIS
SMALLER SCALE SYSTEM PHASING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH. THESE TWO SYSTEMS...ONCE
THEY COMBINE...ARE FORECAST TO TAP INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
MOISTURE BEFORE THE PHASED LOW MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
BEING THE NEW WORK WEEK. BEFORE THIS PHASING HAPPENS...WE CAN
EXPECT THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TO TAP JUST ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY OVER THE WEEKEND...AS MUCH COOLER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO
AN END SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE SMALL SCALE WAVE MERGES WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MENTIONED BEFORE.
THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION...SO WE WILL LIKELY BE SEEING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...OR PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES...FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS TO START OFF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING US A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. IN
FACT...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WE MAY SEE HIGHS IN CLIMBING TO AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY. EACH
NIGHT DURING THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WITH MIN VALUES IN THE 30S EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL
NIGHTS. SOME OUR DEEPER AND NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS MAY EVEN FALL
TO AROUND 32 THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE COLD AS WELL...AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR
AREA...ALLOWING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO SPILL INTO THE REGION.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM COULD MORE PRECIPITATION TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...BUT THERE IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT TO PUT MUCH STOCK
IN WHAT THE WEATHER MAY OR MAY NOT BE DOING NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST
OUT OF THE AREA NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD...TAKING CEILINGS OF
3.5-9K FT AGL WITH IT AND LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TOPPING 20
KTS TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
FIRE WX WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS
POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR A RFW...BUT
IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
JUST SHY OF CRITICAL VALUES...WITH THE BLUEGRASS REGION BEING
CLOSEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY DROP BELOW THE 25 PERCENT
THRESHOLD...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
FIRE WEATHER...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
647 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated 530 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
Narrow, broken line of showers and T-storms weakened east of I-65,
and what`s left of it should be pushing out of our eastern counties
by 6 AM EDT. Going forecast had a good handle on this already, but a
quick update will be issued to clean up the early morning wording.
May also need to beef up the wind forecast slightly, with a solid 15-
20 mph showing up in quite a few observations.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
Cold front is currently making its way across southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, just reaching the I-65 corridor at 07Z. A couple
of storms over southern Indiana currently approaching severe limits
in an environment of elevated instability and low wet-bulb zero
heights. Low-level wind fields are also frisky enough that we`ll
need to watch for gusty winds as well as marginal severe hail, but
these should exit to the north and east by daybreak. Will mention
isolated/scattered storms in a pre-1st period, but mostly handle it
through short-fuse products.
The rest of the day will be mostly sunny and breezy as the surface
low wraps up over the Great Lakes, leaving a tight westerly gradient
over the Ohio Valley. Cold advection will be stronger aloft than at
the surface, so expect deep mixing, which will bring down 30 mph
gusts at times, especially across southern Indiana. Nocturnal
cooling will be limited tonight as the winds stay up, with Thursday
looking fairly similar to today, only a bit less breezy and a few
degrees cooler. Gradient finally starts to relax late Thursday as
the surface ridge builds in from the west.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
Expect below normal temps Friday through the weekend as a series of
upper disturbances carves out a mean trof over the eastern CONUS.
Main challenge will be timing of precip chances, and confidence is
low given the usual difficulty in timing progressive NW flow, and
initial lack of available moisture.
Will keep things dry through Friday, even with a weak surface front
dropping through, as precipitable water will take a while to come up
from roughly a quarter inch. By Friday night we finally start to see
some saturation, so will introduce slight chance POPs mainly in the
south as the front hangs up.
Will carry low-end chance POPs for most of the weekend, with GFS and
ECMWF both progging a closed low tracking across Illinois/Indiana
Saturday night. Not much phasing with the southern stream, but this
trajectory is far enough south and could cool the thermal profiles
enough to support mixed precip within a brief window late Sat night
or early Sun morning. Daytime temps will struggle to reach 50 over
the weekend, with morning lows just barely above freezing.
Precip chances will wane Sunday night as the trof axis pushes to our
east, but cooler than normal temps will continue into Monday with
surface high pressure settling along the Gulf Coast. Milder temps
return on Tuesday as upper ridging builds from the southwest.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
Cold front has pushed through central Kentucky, leaving some
residual strato-cu across SDF and LEX that will present an
initialization problem. Mitigating factor is that it`s VFR, and
there`s a very good chance that it will clear by TAF valid time as
drier air spills into the Ohio Valley.
Once that cloud deck clears out, other than a mid-level deck this
evening, it`s a wind forecast. Expect sustained winds around 15 kt
for most of the day, with prevailing gusts in the 20-25 kt range.
With unusually deep mixing, can`t rule out the odd 30 kt gust, and
this wind direction is especially tricky at SDF given the
orientation perpendicular to the main runways.
Gusts should slack off an hour or so before sunset, but SDF will
pick back up Thursday mid-morning in the planning period, albeit not
as strong as today.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......RAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
532 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated 530 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
Narrow, broken line of showers and T-storms weakened east of I-65,
and what`s left of it should be pushing out of our eastern counties
by 6 AM EDT. Going forecast had a good handle on this already, but a
quick update will be issued to clean up the early morning wording.
May also need to beef up the wind forecast slightly, with a solid 15-
20 mph showing up in quite a few observations.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
Cold front is currently making its way across southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, just reaching the I-65 corridor at 07Z. A couple
of storms over southern Indiana currently approaching severe limits
in an environment of elevated instability and low wet-bulb zero
heights. Low-level wind fields are also frisky enough that we`ll
need to watch for gusty winds as well as marginal severe hail, but
these should exit to the north and east by daybreak. Will mention
isolated/scattered storms in a pre-1st period, but mostly handle it
through short-fuse products.
The rest of the day will be mostly sunny and breezy as the surface
low wraps up over the Great Lakes, leaving a tight westerly gradient
over the Ohio Valley. Cold advection will be stronger aloft than at
the surface, so expect deep mixing, which will bring down 30 mph
gusts at times, especially across southern Indiana. Nocturnal
cooling will be limited tonight as the winds stay up, with Thursday
looking fairly similar to today, only a bit less breezy and a few
degrees cooler. Gradient finally starts to relax late Thursday as
the surface ridge builds in from the west.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
Expect below normal temps Friday through the weekend as a series of
upper disturbances carves out a mean trof over the eastern CONUS.
Main challenge will be timing of precip chances, and confidence is
low given the usual difficulty in timing progressive NW flow, and
initial lack of available moisture.
Will keep things dry through Friday, even with a weak surface front
dropping through, as precipitable water will take a while to come up
from roughly a quarter inch. By Friday night we finally start to see
some saturation, so will introduce slight chance POPs mainly in the
south as the front hangs up.
Will carry low-end chance POPs for most of the weekend, with GFS and
ECMWF both progging a closed low tracking across Illinois/Indiana
Saturday night. Not much phasing with the southern stream, but this
trajectory is far enough south and could cool the thermal profiles
enough to support mixed precip within a brief window late Sat night
or early Sun morning. Daytime temps will struggle to reach 50 over
the weekend, with morning lows just barely above freezing.
Precip chances will wane Sunday night as the trof axis pushes to our
east, but cooler than normal temps will continue into Monday with
surface high pressure settling along the Gulf Coast. Milder temps
return on Tuesday as upper ridging builds from the southwest.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 123 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
A cold front will quickly slide through the TAF sites over the next
few hours. Although moisture starved, an isolated shower or storm
could develop. At this point, have elected to continue keeping the
TAF sites dry as likelihood of one impacting a terminal is pretty
low. Expect steady SW winds to continue ahead of the cold front,
along with a few more hours of LLWS below 1700 feet AGL.
LLWS threat and any Bkn ceiling around 4-5 K feet quickly subsides
between 4 and 5 AM EST with the passage of the front. An hour or two
of gusty SW winds will then continue through the pre-dawn hours
behind the front.
Clear skies return for sunrise with WSW winds around 10 to 15 mph.
These will increase in magnitude by mid to late morning with gusts
up in the 25-30 mph through the afternoon. Winds then slacken to SW
around 5 to 10 mph early this evening.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
300 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Above average confidence in the long term due to mostly quiet
weather and relatively good model agreement.
Through the short term period the region remains in either zonal or
broad cyclonic flow aloft with the Gulf of Mexico cut off for most
of the period so moisture will be limited.
A few high clouds are expected to stream across the area today,
otherwise high pressure should provide another pleasant day for the
lower Ohio valley.
The passage of a weak H5 ripple of energy this afternoon and evening
should do nothing more than bring a layer of mid clouds across the
area. The HRRR implies some weak radar returns across the middle of
our CWA (W-E) in that time frame, but with clouds bases so high, any
precipitation should evaporate before reaching the ground. Besides,
with the exception of the SREF, all deterministic model runs keep it
dry so will go dry for now.
High pressure is expected to keep the region dry and cooler through
Friday morning. Precipitation chances make their way back into the
forecast Friday afternoon with the approach of a decent H5 short
wave and slightly higher deep layer moisture. Precipitation chances
increase slightly Friday night with the passage of said short wave.
Above normal temperatures during the first half of the short term
period are expected to cool to near normal in the second half of the
period.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Medium range models indicate that mid/upper level energy pinched off
from an elongated low previously over the Great Lakes will begin to
dig into the central CONUS by the beginning of the extended forecast
period. A decent surface pressure gradient across the PAH forecast
area between high pressure in the central Plains and a low off the
FL coast will keep a flow of dry cool air in the low levels. Thus,
it will be somewhat difficult to get much in the way of measurable
rain from the system as it passes right over our region early
Sunday. We will go with a slight chance of measurable rainfall with
this event.
After Sunday, northern stream mid/upper level shortwave energy is
progged to dominate much of the eastern CONUS and sweep away the
aforementioned system to the east. Dry weather should prevail across
the PAH forecast area through at least Tuesday as the mid/upper flow
transitions to more of a ridging pattern. Tuesday (Day 7) should be
breezy as another surface pressure gradient sets up between an
approaching low pressure/frontal system to the west and high
pressure along the Atlantic seaboard. Dry low level return flow will
result in a warming trend from 30s/50s to 40s/60s by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
The cold front should reach KPAH and KEVV by the beginning of the
period, but may not reach KOWB until 07Z. Southwest winds will
gust into the 20kts ahead of the front, but the gusts will
increase a bit for an hour or two from the west behind the front.
The cap appears to be winning out, so the front should be dry.
Winds will eventually settle in under 10kts overnight and into the
morning hours. West southwest winds will increase toward midday,
with some gusts 20-25kts possible.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1145 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...00Z LCH SOUNDING MAINTAINING A SHARP THERMAL
INVERSION FROM 2-4K FT AS SOUTHWEST LLJ AROUND 35 KNOTS REMAINS
IN PLACE. RESULT HAS BEEN A VERY HAZY DAY DESPITE RATHER STRONG
SURFACE WINDS. WILL SEE INVERSION DISSIPATING AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES AS LLJ ADVANCES EAST WITH ASSOCIATED TROF MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. SURFACE FRONT PROGGED BY HRRR TO REACH THE LAKES AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...ACADIANA TOWARD SUNRISE. PRECIPITABLE WATER PER
LATEST LCH SOUNDING SHOWING A MEAGER 0.76 INCHES. FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. DO NOT SEE ANY ISSUES WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING (IF THEY
HAVENT ALREADY) OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ESPECIALLY NEARER THE
COAST. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIKELY
DROPPING BELOW 1K FEET BY 09Z OR SO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE ALSO BE
REDUCED TO POTENTIALLY LIFR LEVELS GIVEN LOWER WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT
COMPARED TO LAST AS WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 3K FEET (OR SCATTER OUT) BY NOONTIME. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM A NERLY DIRECTION BACK TO AN ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT CREEPS BACK NWD.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/
MAJOR FLOODING ON THE SABINE...
FLOODING ON THE CALCASIEU...NECHES AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS
CONTINUES...
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON FLOODING PLEASE CHECK OUR WEBSITE
AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH.
A WARM START TO THE DAY SAW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. UNDER
PTCLDY TO MSTLY CLDY SKIES TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 80
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND MID 80S CNTRL LA TODAY.
A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH DFW AND LOOKS TO MAKE THE COAST
OF SW LOUISIANA AROUND SUNRISE... MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BEFORE FALLING APART. WINDS OVER THE THE LAND WILL SHIFT AROUND
TO THE EAST WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS LATEST BOUNDARY WILL WASHOUT QUICKLY WITH WINDS
KICKING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNSET.
CHANCES FOR RAINS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AS THE MAIN SURGE
OF COLDER DRIER AIR MAKES ITS APPEARANCE. RAINFALL TOTALS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 58 80 56 76 / 10 20 30 40
LCH 64 80 64 78 / 10 20 30 40
LFT 67 80 66 77 / 10 20 30 50
BPT 65 81 65 78 / 10 20 20 40
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
219 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY
WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 5OS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD EKN AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ADDTIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE PIEDMONT. THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR NORTH OF
I-64 OF THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH WILL BE BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE/LIFT TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...WILL TWEAK POPS UPWARD
SLIGHTLY TO SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-64...BUT MAINTAIN
SCHC POPS SOUTH. THE 15Z HRRR SUGGESTS THAT STORMS THAT DO OCCUR
COULD BECOME A STRONG...BUT THIS WOULD BE RATHER CONDITIONAL ON IF
THE STORMS ACTUALLY OCCUR. DUE TO THE INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDING...ANY STORM WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/PRECIP LOADING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK RDG OF HI PRES WAS ALNG THE CST EARLY
THIS MORNG...PROVIDING A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY ACRS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THERE WERE ALSO AREAS OF FOG. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING
THRU ERN IN...AND CNTRL KY AND TN. THAT FRONT WILL SWING ACRS THE
REGION THEN OFF THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. SW WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN DWPTS/LO LVL
MOISTURE OVR THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE BEST LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL STAY N OF THE AREA. BUT...THE SHRT TERM MODELS DO
INDICATE A WEAK SECONDARY LO ALONG THE FRONT IN CNTRL/SE VA LATE
THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
PLUS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...BEFORE
THE WESTERLY PBL FLO CUTS OFF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
REGARDLESS... TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LWR TO MID 80S ACRS MOST
OF VA/NC COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S OVR THE LWR MD
AND VA ERN SHR. SPC HAS PUT SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC COUNTIES IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS TODAY...WITH THE MAIN THREATS ISLTD
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BIG CHANGE TNGT THRU FRI WILL BE THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW
LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. VERY
IMPRESSIVE MIXING NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH FVX MIXING TO
800MB UNDER THE STRONG UPPER JET. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT RH
VALUES DROPPING TO 20-25 PCT THU AFTN AND 25-30 PCT ON FRI. ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING BACKDOOR FRONT FRI AFTN
SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SO
WILL KEEP A DRY FCST THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S ON THU...AND RANGING THRU THE 60S ON FRI. LOWS IN THE MID 40S
TO LWR 50S TNGT...AND RANGING THRU THE 40S THU NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF
BEING IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING SFC FEATURES YET
STILL DIVERGING SUN INTO MON. THERE IS ALSO A TREND TWD
BETTER ALIGNMENT OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES HOWEVER LARGER
DISCREPANCIES STILL PLAGUE THE FAR EXTENDED PERIODS FOR
SUN INTO MON AS WELL. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND KEEPING A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST IN PLACE WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT WHEN A DECENT CHANCE AT SEEING
PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. CAPPED POPS WITHIN
HIGH CHANCE WORDING. HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS IN THE 40S
FRI/SAT NIGHTS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUN/MON NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W
TDA...CROSSING THE REGION TNGT. EXPECT DRY WX FOR MOST AREAS WITH
SOME SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. BEST CHC FOR SHRAS/TSTMS WILL BE AT
KSBY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRNT AFTER MIDNITE. VFR CONDS CONTINUE
THU WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN. ANOTHER COLD
FRNT CROSSES THE AREA FRI...WITH ITS MAIN IMPACT BEING JUST A WIND
SHIFT. HI PRES RETURNS FRI NGT/SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM
WHICH AFFECTS THE MID ATLC ERLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WK SFC HI PRES NR THE CST ATTM...DISSIPATES THROUGH THIS MRNG.
CDFNT FM THE W APPROACHES THIS MRNG...CROSSES THE WTRS LT TDA.
SSE WNDS BLO 10 KT TO START TDA...WILL CONT THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTN. WNDS SWING TO THE WSW LT THIS AFTN/EVE. NW WNDS XPCD
TNGT...THAT BECOME WSW RMNG AOB 15 KT ON THU. UPR TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED STRONGER CDFNT CROSSES THE WTRS FRI...RESULTING IN
INCRSD SPEEDS ON LO LVL CAA/DP LYRD MIXING. XPCG A PD OF SCAS FRI
INTO FRI NGT. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT PSBL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASINGLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
WEEK...MAXIMIZED ON FRIDAY WHEN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COORDINATION WITH
THE STATE FORESTRY OFFICIALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WARM CONDITIONS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 18-30
PERCENT WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE CHES BAY ON THURSDAY. WSW SURFACE
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON.
FRIDAY: COOLER BUT STILL MILD...AND CONTINUED DRY...WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A REINFORCING AND DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGER WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. MIN RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-30% WEST OF THE CHES BAY...AND 25-35% ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST (INCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE).
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY (MARCH 16)
RIC...85/1945
ORF...84/1945
ECG...87/1945
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1225 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY
WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 5OS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD EKN AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ADDTIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE PIEDMONT. THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR NORTH OF
I-64 OF THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH WILL BE BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE/LIFT TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...WILL TWEAK POPS UPWARD
SLIGHTLY TO SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-64...BUT MAINTAIN
SCHC POPS SOUTH. THE 15Z HRRR SUGGESTS THAT STORMS THAT DO OCCUR
COULD BECOME A STRONG...BUT THIS WOULD BE RATHER CONDITIONAL ON IF
THE STORMS ACTUALLY OCCUR. DUE TO THE INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDING...ANY STORM WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/PRECIP LOADING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK RDG OF HI PRES WAS ALNG THE CST EARLY
THIS MORNG...PROVIDING A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY ACRS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THERE WERE ALSO AREAS OF FOG. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING
THRU ERN IN...AND CNTRL KY AND TN. THAT FRONT WILL SWING ACRS THE
REGION THEN OFF THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. SW WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN DWPTS/LO LVL
MOISTURE OVR THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE BEST LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL STAY N OF THE AREA. BUT...THE SHRT TERM MODELS DO
INDICATE A WEAK SECONDARY LO ALONG THE FRONT IN CNTRL/SE VA LATE
THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
PLUS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...BEFORE
THE WESTERLY PBL FLO CUTS OFF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
REGARDLESS... TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LWR TO MID 80S ACRS MOST
OF VA/NC COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S OVR THE LWR MD
AND VA ERN SHR. SPC HAS PUT SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC COUNTIES IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS TODAY...WITH THE MAIN THREATS ISLTD
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BIG CHANGE TNGT THRU FRI WILL BE THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW
LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. VERY
IMPRESSIVE MIXING NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH FVX MIXING TO
800MB UNDER THE STRONG UPPER JET. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT RH
VALUES DROPPING TO 20-25 PCT THU AFTN AND 25-30 PCT ON FRI. ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING BACKDOOR FRONT FRI AFTN
SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SO
WILL KEEP A DRY FCST THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S ON THU...AND RANGING THRU THE 60S ON FRI. LOWS IN THE MID 40S
TO LWR 50S TNGT...AND RANGING THRU THE 40S THU NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF
BEING IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING SFC FEATURES YET
STILL DIVERGING SUN INTO MON. THERE IS ALSO A TREND TWD
BETTER ALIGNMENT OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES HOWEVER LARGER
DISCREPANCIES STILL PLAGUE THE FAR EXTENDED PERIODS FOR
SUN INTO MON AS WELL. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND KEEPING A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST IN PLACE WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT WHEN A DECENT CHANCE AT SEEING
PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. CAPPED POPS WITHIN
HIGH CHANCE WORDING. HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS IN THE 40S
FRI/SAT NIGHTS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUN/MON NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WK SFC HI PRES NR THE CST BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THIS MRNG. CDFNT FM
THE W APPROACHES THIS MRNG...THEN CROSSES THE RGN THIS AFTN. SFC
HI PRES RETURNS TNGT THROUGH THU. A SECONDARY CDFNT CROSSES THE
RGN LT THU AND A FINAL ONE CROSSES ON FRI.
LGT/VRB WNDS...MNLY SKC AND DEWPTS HOLDING NR TEMPS (IN THE U40S-
L50S) CONT TO RESULT IN PATCHY (LGT) FG UNTIL ABT 13Z/16. AT MOST
VSBYS BRIEFLY DROP TO 1-4SM (DUE TO FG). OTRW...SSE WNDS AND VFR
CONDS (ANY BKN CIGS ABV 3 KFT) XPCD TDA. ISOLD SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE W/ FNTL PASSAGE. WNDS BECOME WSW BY LT TDA.
GUSTY WSW WNDS TO 20-25 KT XPCD THU AFTN...THEN NW WNDS GUSTY TO
25-30 KT XCPD FRI. MNLY VFR CONDS CONT THU-FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
WK SFC HI PRES NR THE CST ATTM...DISSIPATES THROUGH THIS MRNG.
CDFNT FM THE W APPROACHES THIS MRNG...CROSSES THE WTRS LT TDA.
SSE WNDS BLO 10 KT TO START TDA...WILL CONT THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTN. WNDS SWING TO THE WSW LT THIS AFTN/EVE. NW WNDS XPCD
TNGT...THAT BECOME WSW RMNG AOB 15 KT ON THU. UPR TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED STRONGER CDFNT CROSSES THE WTRS FRI...RESULTING IN
INCRSD SPEEDS ON LO LVL CAA/DP LYRD MIXING. XPCG A PD OF SCAS FRI
INTO FRI NGT. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT PSBL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASINGLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
WEEK...MAXIMIZED ON FRIDAY WHEN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COORDINATION WITH
THE STATE FORESTRY OFFICIALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WARM CONDITIONS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 18-30
PERCENT WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE CHES BAY ON THURSDAY. WSW SURFACE
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON.
FRIDAY: COOLER BUT STILL MILD...AND CONTINUED DRY...WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A REINFORCING AND DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGER WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. MIN RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-30% WEST OF THE CHES BAY...AND 25-35% ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST (INCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE).
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY (MARCH 16)
RIC...85/1945
ORF...84/1945
ECG...87/1945
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...MRD/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
843 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A
FRIDAY COLD FRONT RETURNS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
845 AM...ADJUSTED POPS/WX FOR LATEST HRRR RUN. AT 12Z...FRONT WAS
JUST WEST OF THE CWA...AND IT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER AS 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY ONCE SURFACE-BASED
INVERSION MIXES OUT. TEMPS UPDATED WITH LATEST NEAR-TERM
GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT DROP IN MAX TEMPS IN SOME AREAS.
CL
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACRS UPR MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES RGN THRU THU. SHORTWAVES ADVANCING ARND THE LOW SHOULD KEEP
OCNL SHOWER CHCS IN THE FCST. THE UPR LOW IS EXPD TO OPEN INTO A
TROF AND ADVANCE ACRS THE RGN THU NGT/FRI...ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. SHOWER CHCS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AND
FRONT...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS PSBL IN COLD ADVECTION. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LVLS BY FRI.
GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING ADJUSTED SREF AND SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD ERN CONUS UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP THRU ERLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMP REDUCTION BACK TWD LATE WINTER AVGS. PRECIP...
INCLUDING SOME SNOW SHOWERS...SPPRTG SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
MINIMAL. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...TWEAKED FOR COLLABORATION...WAS
USED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH GENL VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD...
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS WL BE PLAGUED BY MORNING SHOWERS...LLVL WIND
SHEAR...AND EVENTUALLY SFC GUSTS ARND 25 KTS BY AFTN.
STRONG LOW PRES WL MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THIS MRNG...PULLING
AN OCCLUDING FRONT ACRS THE UPR OH REGION AND GENERATING THE
CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY FM PIT
NORTH AND EASTWARD. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WERE THUS CONFINED TO THE I
80 CORRIDOR PORTS AND LBE...WITH A VICINITY MENTIONED OTHERWISE.
LLVL WIND SHEAR WAS INCLUDED FOR PORTS SOUTH OF FKL AND DUJ AS
AS A LLVL JET TRAVERSES THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE WESTERN
LAKES LLOW.
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH SFC GUSTS NR 25
KTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WIND VEERS TWD THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH...AND IN THE WAKE OF A THURSDAY
NIGHT COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
543 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A
FRIDAY COLD FRONT RETURNS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDT BASED ON
RADAR AND NEAR TERM MDL TRENDS. PREVIOUS...A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE RGN THIS MRNG WITH WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHCS OF SEEING RAIN IS EXPD FROM PIT N AND
E...WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND UPR SUPPORT IS
PROGGED. A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO PSBL AS MODELS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.
AFT FROPA...A CLEARING TREND IS EXPD...ALONG WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS
AS MIXING INCREASES. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
LVLS. NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING MODIFIED HRRR AND
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACRS UPR MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES RGN THRU THU. SHORTWAVES ADVANCING ARND THE LOW SHOULD KEEP
OCNL SHOWER CHCS IN THE FCST. THE UPR LOW IS EXPD TO OPEN INTO A
TROF AND ADVANCE ACRS THE RGN THU NGT/FRI...ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. SHOWER CHCS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AND
FRONT...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS PSBL IN COLD ADVECTION. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LVLS BY FRI.
GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING ADJUSTED SREF AND SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD ERN CONUS UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP THRU ERLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMP REDUCTION BACK TWD LATE WINTER AVGS. PRECIP...
INCLUDING SOME SNOW SHOWERS...SPPRTG SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
MINIMAL. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...TWEAKED FOR COLLABORATION...WAS
USED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH GENL VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD...
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS WL BE PLAGUED BY MORNING SHOWERS...LLVL WIND
SHEAR...AND EVENTUALLY SFC GUSTS ARND 25 KTS BY AFTN.
STRONG LOW PRES WL MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THIS MRNG...PULLING
AN OCCLUDING FRONT ACRS THE UPR OH REGION AND GENERATING THE
CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY FM PIT
NORTH AND EASTWARD. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WERE THUS CONFINED TO THE I
80 CORRIDOR PORTS AND LBE...WITH A VICINITY MENTIONED OTHERWISE.
LLVL WIND SHEAR WAS INCLUDED FOR PORTS SOUTH OF FKL AND DUJ AS
AS A LLVL JET TRAVERSES THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE WESTERN
LAKES LLOW.
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH SFC GUSTS NR 25
KTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WIND VEERS TWD THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH...AND IN THE WAKE OF A THURSDAY
NIGHT COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
323 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A
FRIDAY COLD FRONT RETURNS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE RGN THIS MRNG WITH WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHCS OF SEEING RAIN IS EXPD FROM
PIT N AND E...WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND UPR
SUPPORT IS PROGGED. A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO PSBL WITH FROPA AS
MODELS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AFT FROPA...A CLEARING TREND IS EXPD...ALONG WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS
AS MIXING INCREASES. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
LVLS. NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING MODIFIED HRRR AND
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACRS UPR MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES RGN THRU THU. SHORTWAVES ADVANCING ARND THE LOW SHOULD KEEP
OCNL SHOWER CHCS IN THE FCST. THE UPR LOW IS EXPD TO OPEN INTO A
TROF AND ADVANCE ACRS THE RGN THU NGT/FRI...ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. SHOWER CHCS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AND
FRONT...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS PSBL IN COLD ADVECTION. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LVLS BY FRI.
GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING ADJUSTED SREF AND SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD ERN CONUS UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP THRU ERLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMP REDUCTION BACK TWD LATE WINTER AVGS. PRECIP...
INCLUDING SOME SNOW SHOWERS...SPPRTG SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
MINIMAL. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...TWEAKED FOR COLLABORATION...WAS
USED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH GENL VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD...
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS WL BE PLAGUED BY ELEVATED SHOWERS...LLVL WIND
SHEAR...AND EVENTUALLY SFC GUSTS ARND 25 KTS BY AFTN.
STRONG LOW PRES WL MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THIS MRNG...PULLING A
CDFNT ACRS THE UPR OH REGION AND GENERATING THE CONDITIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE. SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY FM PIT NORTH...AND
EASTWARD. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WERE THUS CONFINED TO THE I 80
CORRIDOR PORTS AND LBE...WITH A VICINITY MENTIONED OTHERWISE. LLVL
WIND SHEAR WAS INCLUDED AT ZZV AND MGW DURING THE PREDAWN HRS AS
A LLVL JET TRAVERSES THE SRN FLANK OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW.
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH SFC GUSTS NR 25
KTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WIND VEERS TWD THE W WITH PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH...AND IN THE WAKE OF A THURSDAY
NIGHT COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
07/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1236 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A
FRIDAY COLD FRONT RETURNS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS N OF PIT OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
RGN WED MRNG/ERLY AFTN WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS. A FEW TSTMS ARE
ALSO PSBL WITH MODEL PROGGED ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AFT FROPA...A CLEARING TREND IS EXPD ALONG WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS.
TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS. NEAR TERM GRIDS
WERE UPDATING USING MODIFIED HRRR AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH SAGGING AND SETTLING ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE...CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED
THROUGH FRIDAY AS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES SUPPORT CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WITH A SECOND COLD PUSH EXPECTED
LATER ON FRIDAY.
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH STAYED CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES BY FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD ERN CONUS UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMP REDUCTION BACK TWD LATE WINTER AVGS. PRECIP...INCLUDING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS...SPPRTG SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH TIMING CONFIDENCE IS MINIMAL. SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...TWEAKED FOR COLLABORATION...WAS USED FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTH WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN PORTS, WHERE MVFR REMAINS. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH KFKL AND KDUJ MAY BREAK OUT OVERNIGHT
AS WELL. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE UNDER CLEAR SKIES, BUT WITH DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WIDE NOT PLACED IN TERMINALS FOR NOW.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF MVFR SHOWERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AIR WILL BRING VFR TO THE REGION BEHIND
FROPA.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY HOWEVER THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW STALLS... AND A FEW
SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY AND COOL WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
STILL NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT TO ONGOING WIND HEADLINES. SOME GUSTS
NEAR 50 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL WHERE CLEARING
HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLEARING HAS ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN SRN LWR MI
AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 50KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM BEFORE THE MIXING HEIGHTS CRASH.
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR THE
FILLING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER SOME
LIGHT/ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN LWR MI DUE TO
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/COLD ADVECTION AND VORTICTY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE RAIN GIVEN WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WITH SFC FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX OR SNOW... BUT AGAIN ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY... COLD READINGS OF 20-25 ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF
THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCALES UP NORTH LIKE LEOTA COULD EVEN DIP TO
10 TO 15.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
COOLER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO OOZE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. H8 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SLIGHTLY
COLDER...SO I FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND LOWERED MAX AND MIN TEMPS
OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL ONLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S EACH DAY...AND UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S FOR LOW
TEMPS. WE WILL STAY CHILLY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS BY THEN SHOULD GIVE A NICE BOOST IN TEMPS.
AS FOR PCPN...WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MODELS
SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE/UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH. OTHERWISE IT
APPEARS RATHER QUIET UNTIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THEN UPPER
TROUGHING TAKES PLACE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THIS WILL
CAUSE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT
SHOULD TAKE SHAPE OVER THE LOWER LAKES...AND THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING US SNOW INITIALLY ON
TUESDAY...BUT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION SURGE IS INDICATED. SO THE
SNOW SHOULD SWITCH TO RAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IT
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
HOW THIS DEVELOPS. IF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STAYS FARTHER SOUTH WE
MAY SEE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND. THE WSW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE
SIGNIFICANT TURBULENCE BELOW 2K FT FOR TAKEOFFS AND LANDINGS. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE AT 15-20 KNOTS AFTER 22Z...BUT THE
GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH. THIS SHOULD CARRY THROUGH UNTIL THU
MORNING WHEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z THU.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE REGION. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE I-96 TAF SITES UNTIL
01Z...THEN WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
GUST OF 35-40 KTS ARE OCCASIONALLY BEING REPORTED AT SOME OF THE
MARINE SITES SO WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING THIS EVENING. GALES
SHOULD END OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW A STRIPE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOCALLY
AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES THAT RUN FROM ALONG THE MUSKEGON-OCEANA
COUNTY LINE...EASTWARD TO JUST ABOUT THE SAGINAW BAY AREA. OUTSIDE
THIS LINE AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED EXPECTATIONS. MORNING
OBSERVATIONS VIA COCORAHS AND VARIOUS OTHER SITES SHOW SLIGHTLY
OVER HALF AN INCH IN THIS SAME TERRITORY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT
GIVEN THE SCENARIO AND NUMBER OF SMALL HAIL REPORTS THESE HIGHER
AMOUNTS MAY BE CONTAMINATED TO SOME DEGREE.
RIVER LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH AND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN RISES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS INCLUDES PERIODS OF LIGHTER AMOUNTS
THAT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MINOR FLOODING BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ056>059-
064>067-071>074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
529 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
ALBERTA/SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS WITH WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NW ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SE
FLOW WAS INCREASING OVER NRN WI BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
ERN LAKES AND A TROUGH FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH MN TO LOW PRES OVER
MO. A LINE SHRA EXTENDING FROM NW WI INTO SE WI/NE IL WERE SUPPORTED
BY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 290-
295K SFCS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH HAS RESULTED
IN CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR EAST
WHERE DRY EASTERLY FLOW AND PROXIMITY TO RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FROM MID 50S FAR WEST AND EAST
TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MI SHORE IN SE FLOW.
TONIGHT...AS THE NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LIFTS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
TO NEAR 987 MB OVER SRN WI BY 12Z WED. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN BAND MOVING THROUGH WI SO
HAVE BACKED OFF ON INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL OVER WEST
UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVER THE CENTRAL COUNTIES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN COMBINATION OF INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE IN COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO OVERCOME DRY EASTERLY FLOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WITH THE WAA SURGE...THE PCPN BAND
COMING IN INITIALLY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT. ERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME GUSTY LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
NEAR LAKE MI WHERE GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ALSO KEPT IN
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER OVER SCNTRL UPPER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING AS MODELS STILL SHOW NEG SHOWALTER INDICES AND MUCAPE OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG ON NOSE OF 85H THETA-E AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE FALLING HEAVILY IN THE MORNING SO PRECIP
LOADING COULD ALSO AID IN BRINGING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS TO SFC. AT THE
LEAST...DUE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO NORTH OF DEEPENING
SFC LOW OVER WI DOWN TO LESS THAN 990MB BY 12Z WED...AREAS FAVORED
BY EAST WINDS SUCH AS LK MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY AND ACROSS
KEWEENAW COULD SEE EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH MUCH OF THE DAY.
AS DRY SLOT WITH SYSTEM AND Q-VECT DIV MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
AREAS EXPECT PRECIP TO DIMINISH THERE. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
WESTERN CWA WHERE DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE EXPANDS ON NW SIDE
OF DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND STRONG SFC-H85 LOW MEANDERING OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MI AND DEFORMATION FORCING ALLOWS BAND TO SET UP OVER
THE WEST.
THE OTHER TRICKY PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE PTYPE AND POSSIBILITY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON WED. MODEL SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY NAM...SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMIC COOLING WITH HEAVIER PCPN BAND MOVING THROUGH
WED MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHORTLY AFT 12Z. IF THIS
HAPPENS AS QUICKLY AS NAM INDICATES THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL OF
SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW WED MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI AS THIS HEAVIER BAND MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. RIGHT NOW...SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THERMAL FIELDS/PROFILES HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY PUT IN A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW OVER MAINLY THE KEWEENAW AND WRN MQT/ERN BARAGA COUNTIES WED
MORNING BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF SOME WED AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE FAR WEST LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT WHEN DEFORMATION BAND W/SYSTEM SETS UP IN STRONGLY
CYCLONIC NNE FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THU...THE STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR THE E CNTRL CWA AT 12Z...PER
MDLS CONSENSUS...WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WRAP-AROUND PCPN WITH THE COLD CYCLONIC NE FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE SNOWFALL INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. 850 MB TEMPS IN THE-
6C TO -8C RANGE WILL ONLY PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. THERE IS ALSO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW AND ITS IMPACT ON THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INTO N CNTRL
UPPER MI. NEVERTHELESS...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED...GREATEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR IWD
AND WRN MARQUETTE COUNTY INTO BARAGA COUNTY. LITTLE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ERN CWA.
THU NIGHT...AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
DEPART...LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. SOME FZDZ MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER ONLY NEAR
-10C...BUT THE PREDOMINANT PCPN TYPE SHOULD REMAIN AS SNOW.
FRI...MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDING WILL BRING CLEARING. EVEN WITH THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 30S SOUTH.
SAT-MON...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO DRAG ANOTHER BATCH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE NRN
LAKES FROM SUN INTO MON. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING REMAINS AS THE
GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -16C WITH WILL
SUPPORT LES CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY N TO NW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON.
TUE...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN
WITH SHRTWVS AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
AS AREA OF RA AHEAD OF DEEPENING LO PRES MOVING INTO WI OVERSPREADS
UPR MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF ONSET TO DETERIORATE TO
IFR/LIFR BY DAYBREAK. THEN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE ON WED
THRU WED EVNG WITH CYC E-NE FLOW/RA MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SN ON
NW FLANK OF LO PRES MOVING INTO SCENTRAL UPR MI LATE TODAY. GUSTY E
WINDS WL BE STRONGEST AHEAD OF THIS LO AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX
LOCATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN STRONG EAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON WHERE E-NE GALES OF
35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND MOVES E AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-084.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
138 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
ALBERTA/SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS WITH WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NW ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SE
FLOW WAS INCREASING OVER NRN WI BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
ERN LAKES AND A TROUGH FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH MN TO LOW PRES OVER
MO. A LINE SHRA EXTENDING FROM NW WI INTO SE WI/NE IL WERE SUPPORTED
BY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 290-
295K SFCS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH HAS RESULTED
IN CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR EAST
WHERE DRY EASTERLY FLOW AND PROXIMITY TO RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FROM MID 50S FAR WEST AND EAST
TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MI SHORE IN SE FLOW.
TONIGHT...AS THE NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LIFTS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
TO NEAR 987 MB OVER SRN WI BY 12Z WED. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN BAND MOVING THROUGH WI SO
HAVE BACKED OFF ON INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL OVER WEST
UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVER THE CENTRAL COUNTIES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN COMBINATION OF INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE IN COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO OVERCOME DRY EASTERLY FLOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WITH THE WAA SURGE...THE PCPN BAND
COMING IN INITIALLY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT. ERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME GUSTY LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
NEAR LAKE MI WHERE GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ALSO KEPT IN
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER OVER SCNTRL UPPER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING AS MODELS STILL SHOW NEG SHOWALTER INDICES AND MUCAPE OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG ON NOSE OF 85H THETA-E AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE FALLING HEAVILY IN THE MORNING SO PRECIP
LOADING COULD ALSO AID IN BRINGING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS TO SFC. AT THE
LEAST...DUE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO NORTH OF DEEPENING
SFC LOW OVER WI DOWN TO LESS THAN 990MB BY 12Z WED...AREAS FAVORED
BY EAST WINDS SUCH AS LK MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY AND ACROSS
KEWEENAW COULD SEE EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH MUCH OF THE DAY.
AS DRY SLOT WITH SYSTEM AND Q-VECT DIV MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
AREAS EXPECT PRECIP TO DIMINISH THERE. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
WESTERN CWA WHERE DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE EXPANDS ON NW SIDE
OF DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND STRONG SFC-H85 LOW MEANDERING OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MI AND DEFORMATION FORCING ALLOWS BAND TO SET UP OVER
THE WEST.
THE OTHER TRICKY PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE PTYPE AND POSSIBILITY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON WED. MODEL SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY NAM...SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMIC COOLING WITH HEAVIER PCPN BAND MOVING THROUGH
WED MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHORTLY AFT 12Z. IF THIS
HAPPENS AS QUICKLY AS NAM INDICATES THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL OF
SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW WED MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI AS THIS HEAVIER BAND MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. RIGHT NOW...SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THERMAL FIELDS/PROFILES HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY PUT IN A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW OVER MAINLY THE KEWEENAW AND WRN MQT/ERN BARAGA COUNTIES WED
MORNING BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF SOME WED AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE FAR WEST LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT WHEN DEFORMATION BAND W/SYSTEM SETS UP IN STRONGLY
CYCLONIC NNE FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 549 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS LOOKS QUITE CHANGEABLE WITH FLOW
TRANSITIONING BETWEEN PERIODS OF MORE PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW AND
PERIODS OF MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PATTERN
WILL BECOME BLOCKY OVER NAMERICA WITH DYNAMIC SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BENEATH A DEVELOPING CLOSED HIGH TO THE N. THIS
BLOCKY PATTERN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE W
COAST FORCES THE CLOSED HIGH TO DISSIPATE UNDER DEVELOPING ERN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. WRN RIDGE THEN WEAKENS WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED
SPLIT FLOW REDEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THE MDT/HVY PCPN OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...A DRIER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME -SHSN AND EVEN LES ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE AND COLDER AIR DIVING SE INTO THE ERN TROF LATER THIS
WEEKEND. FARTHER OUT...NAEFS 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES BLO NORMAL
TEMPS BECOMING FAVORED W-E ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL CANADA WHILE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS BECOME FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THIS SUGGESTS
A POTENTIAL ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS SHORTWAVES TRACK ALONG A
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. SO...THE UPPER
LAKES MAY BE AFFECTED BY BOUTS OF PCPN EVERY 2-3 DAYS...BEGINNING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THE MONTH.
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME SNOW EVENTS TO OCCUR.
BEGINNING WED NIGHT/THU...MIDLEVEL LOW AND SFC LOW CENTERED VCNTY OF
SCNTRL UPPER MI WED EVENING WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT
BEFORE QUICKLY UNRAVELING AND DRIFTING S AND E ON THU. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FCST AREA.
TO THE N AND W OF THE LOW...UPSLOPE NE TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
ENHANCE PCPN...ESPECIALLY SO OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED. THE FAR W IS ALSO CENTERED
UNDER AN AREA OF LINGERING DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS...AND
THAT FORCING IS QUITE STRONG THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL TEMPS
AREN`T QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT IT WOULDN`T TAKE
MUCH COOLING TO RESULT IN CONSIDERABLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS INCLUDING THE 09Z
SREF...THE NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN ARE ON THE HIGHER END OF THE QPF
SPECTRUM...SHOWING AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH WED NIGHT OVER FAR WRN UPPER
MI. USED A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 1/3RD TO
2/3RDS OF AN INCH. WITH SNOW RATIOS PROBABLY NOT HIGHER THAN AROUND
10 TO 1...SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3-6 INCHES WED NIGHT
OVER GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES AND 2-4 INTO HOUGHTON COUNTY. ADVY
HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THOSE 3 COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH TO
SUBADVY LEVELS IN THE BORDERING COUNTIES...WITH EVEN LIGHTER AMOUNTS
DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FARTHER E.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH THU AS ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND
DRIFTS AND E. MIGHT SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE W IN THE MORNING.
PATCHY -SN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THU NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ TO DEVELOP IN THE NNE WIND UPSLOPE
AREAS AS MOISTURE DEPTH SHRINKS TO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE TEMPS IN THE
MOIST LAYER ARE AROUND -10C. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...KEPT MENTION OUT
OF FCST FOR NOW.
CLOSED MID LEVEL HIGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER MANITOBA THU WEAKENS AND
DRIFTS SE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI/SAT...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FRI/FRI NIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH PRES
OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BEGAN TO TREND MIN TEMPS DOWN A BIT...
TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS.
SHORTWAVE DROPS SE THRU THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT
TIMING/TRACK OF SHORTWAVE IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON WITH THE GFS MORE
AMPLIFIED/FARTHER S WITH SHORTWAVE TRACK THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...
RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE OF -SHSN SUN ACROSS THE AREA AS DAYTIME
HEATING/MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME TYPE OF -SHSN REGIME. FOR NOW...LEANED FCST AWAY FROM THE
GFS. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -15C OR SO BEHIND WAVE...EXPECT
SOME LIGHT LES TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SUN INTO MON.
THE FIRST IN WHAT COULD BE A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS MAY ARRIVE IN THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE TUE OR
WED. WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS
BASED ON RECENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS...ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED
ON TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
AS AREA OF RA AHEAD OF DEEPENING LO PRES MOVING INTO WI OVERSPREADS
UPR MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF ONSET TO DETERIORATE TO
IFR/LIFR BY DAYBREAK. THEN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE ON WED
THRU WED EVNG WITH CYC E-NE FLOW/RA MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SN ON
NW FLANK OF LO PRES MOVING INTO SCENTRAL UPR MI LATE TODAY. GUSTY E
WINDS WL BE STRONGEST AHEAD OF THIS LO AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX
LOCATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN STRONG EAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON WHERE E-NE GALES OF
35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND MOVES E AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-003-009-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162-263-
264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A DEVELOPING DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE LOWER PENINSULA MAY
CONTAIN HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TONIGHT. THE LOW ITSELF WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE. COOLER WEATHER WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH HIGHS MIGRATING BACK TO THE 40S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WATCHING CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER ILLINOIS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
STRONG SHEAR OVER IL/IN BUT NOTHING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...YET.
THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE A BIT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES STILL
LOOKING FOR STORMS TO MOVE TOWARD THE CWA AFTER 11 PM WHICH IS NOT
THE BEST TIME TO SEE SVR STORMS. INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF I-94 AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAIL REMAINS THE BIGGEST THREAT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
POINT TOWARD A ROBUST INVERSION WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE WIND
THREAT.
ALSO LOOKING AT THE WIND THREAT WEDNESDAY. WIND CROSS SECTIONS
POINT TOWARD 50+ KNOTS AOB 1000 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. WE/LL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE 00Z DATA
AND EVALUATE WHETHER WE NEED TO BUMP THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT MAY REALIZE BETTER MIXING SUCH
AS THE SOUTHERN CWA. AS OF RIGHT NOW THOUGH...THE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
TWO ITEMS TO DEAL WITH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BEING THE
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AND THREAT FOR SEVERE TONIGHT. THE SECOND
BEING STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
REGARDING THE STORM AND SEVERE CHANCES FOR TONIGHT. CONSIDERABLE
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS ALLOWING DAY TIME
HEATING TO BOOST TEMPS A BIT. READINGS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE 60S OVER
FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MI TOWARDS AZO AND BEH. BEH HAS REACHED 64
DEGREES. OF MORE IMPORTANCE IS THE FACT THAT DEW POINTS HAVE SURGED
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVER A FAIRLY SIZABLE AREA OVER
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THIS WILL ACT TO INCREASE INSTABILITY TONIGHT
AS THIS MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE AS
THE WIND FIELDS INCREASE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE ALONG WITH MID
LEVEL COOLING FROM THE DYNAMIC 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TEND TO INCREASE
INSTABILITY. THE RUC HAS DEEP LAYER CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
1000 J/KG IN THE GRR FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST CAPE OVER THE
LARGEST AREA (MKG/BIV/GRR/AZO/BTL) OCCURS AROUND 2AM TO 3AM. BOTTOM
LINE...STILL EXPECTING BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SWEEP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE IS
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ARE MAXIMIZED. HAIL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH REMAINS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS A POTENTIAL THREAT
AS WELL.
REGARDING THE WIND TOMORROW...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A VERY DEEP LOW FOR ANY TIME OF YEAR
IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 980S TOMORROW MORNING. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SITUATED OVER ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. BEST ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT LOOKS TO BE WEST OF US THOUGH.
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS OF 45+ MPH LOOK LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR
ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (I96 AND I94 CORRIDORS)
WHERE WE MAY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE/MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON.
POWER OUTAGES ARE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW. THINKING THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE HIGHER RISK AREA MAY BE FOR BIV/GRR/LWA AND
AZO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF THE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...
THEN STAY THAT WAY FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WE MORE THAN LIKELY WILL SEE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS SORT OF
EVENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS EAST OF GREENLAND BY
THURSDAY AND THAT FORCES THE NORTHERN STREAM TO DIG WELL SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA... INSTEAD OF STAYING UP IN CENTRAL CANADA HAS
IT HAS BEEN DOING OVER THE PAST WEEK. THIS ALSO HELPS TO PUSH THE
CURRENT SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE
CURRENT ONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AND HEAD TO THE
EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA AROUND
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY FOR THIS SYSTEM
SO...THIS COULD BE ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM. THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY
HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO TURN THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY IN OUR AREA GETS SHEARED OUT BUT AS THIS HAPPENS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD SO WE GET A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE WE COULD SEE THE RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHWEST LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT SHARPLY ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 09Z TO 11Z FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LEADING TO
IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS. NOT CONFIDENT ON
HOW WIDESPREAD THE IFR WILL BECOME GIVEN THE LACK OF SUCH
CONDITIONS AROUND THE AREA. THUS I TONED BACK THIS WORDING.
STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MOST
PLACES WILL SEE GUSTS TOPPING 40 KNOTS WITH LOCAL 50 KNOTS
POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND...BUT MOSTLY NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES DURING THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
ISSUED A GALE WARNING EARLIER TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS IN WISCONSIN. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT AROUND 983MB/S WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE
FORCE ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY PEAKING IN 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. WAVES WILL
BUILD TOWARDS 10 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES LIKELY
NORTH OF MUSKEGON GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE LOW WILL FILL/WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE WINDS
AND WAVES GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
SOME POINTS ALONG THE GRAND RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE BANKFULL. THE GOING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES EXPECTED FROM THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. NO OTHER HEAVY
RAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK... SO THAT
WILL GIVE THE RIVERS SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1147 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Main concern continues to be focused on later this afternoon and
this evening for the potential of severe weather.
The HRRR has been consistent in developing convection along the
surface low and northeast along the inverted surface trough. Surface
analysis for 19Z shows the surface low is likely in between Moberly,
Columbia and Hannibal. This area has remained cloud free and is
likely to be able to build enough instability, perhaps as high as
1500 J/kg of SBCAPE. 0-6km shear though is very favorable for storm
organization and may be pushing 60 KTs. The good news is that this
environment should be east of the forecast area, given the forecasts
for the surface low. But there may be enough MUCAPE in the post-
frontal regime that when combined the forcing of the upper trough,
that a few thunderstorms cold develop late in the afternoon to early
evening. The CAPE/shear combination is not as robust as it is in the
equivalent warm sector but the environment may be supportive of
marginally severe hail.
The other issue in the short-term deals with the backside of this
system and the potential for strong winds. It is usually very
favorable for advisory level surface winds when an upper level PV
anomaly moves overhead. However, the surface low in this case is
well removed from the area and moving into Wisconsin or the UP. The
pressure gradient magnitude drops off to between 25 and 30 ubars/km
through the morning hours. Also, by the time deeper mixing into
strong winds aloft occurs, the pressure gradient is weakening and
winds aloft diminish. So it just doesn`t look like the ingredients
line up to get a good synoptic wind event to the levels that an
advisory would be needed. But it will still be windy across the
region tomorrow morning through early in the afternoon. The
strongest winds will be in our northeastern zones, closest to the
departing the surface low.
While the weather will be cooler than the recent past, overall it
looks to be quiet as well. The area will be in a general
northwesterly flow pattern with a weak blocking signal over the
Great Lakes. With predominantly cyclonic curvature to the flow over
or region, temperatures will be on the cool side. It`s not really
until the end of next week, when the upper ridge over the west
begins to shift eastward, that flow turns back to the south and we
warm back into the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Final batch of showers are clearing out of northwest Missouri leaving
just a few VFR-based clouds behind. Other than this, mostly clear
skies will be the rule through the period. Gusts will subside over
the next couple of hours then pick back up during the afternoon.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS TO EXPAND POPS FOR THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWS
THAT -SHRA CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NE...
MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM YANKTON TO COLUMBUS AND BEATRICE AS
OF 23Z. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW PCPN PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. A 90KT 300MB JET SEGMENT WAS ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER SEGMENT OF 120KTS ALONG THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN CWA LATER
THIS EVENING BUT EXIT EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY.
THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO MODEST MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SHOULD CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS THAT MAY BORDER WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEADLINE AT THIS
POINT AS 850MB FLOW IS JUST NOT LOOKING QUITE STRONG ENOUGH.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
THE NEXT SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN COMES SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NWRLY FLOW AND CLOSES OFF JUST TO OUR EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TO OUR
WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD BRING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS AT
KOMA ALSO DECREASING. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE
MORNING AND SHOULD BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST MUCH OF THE AFTN.
SOME CEILINGS IN THE 6000 T0 9000 FOOT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WED
AFTN. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME ISOLD -SHRA IN THE AFTN...BUT THE
CHANCE AT ANY TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
355 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG LATE- SEASON COLD
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO
MANY AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE ARE
ORIENTED WITHIN A REGION OF 250-500 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE PER
SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE TRIPLE
POINT BEING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. RADAR ELEVATION
SLICES SHOW THAT 40-50 DBZ CORE IS EXTENDING ABOVE THE 0C LEVEL SO
SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES
MOVING OVER AND EAST OF ROCHESTER. SEVERAL REPORTS OF THIS HAVE
RECENTLY COME INTO THE OFFICE.
FOLLOWING RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES.
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS EXPECT MOST OF
THE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND OF LAKE SHADOWS NORTHEAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MID 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE
FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE
SHADOWS SHOULD KEEP THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING BUFFALO MAINLY
DRY...AND ALSO NEAR WATERTOWN AS WELL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS MIXING OCCURS
AND FUNNELING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-40
KNOT RANGE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NEW YORK TO THE FINGER LAKES. 12Z BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE
THAT MEAN MOMENTUM TRANSPORT GUSTS WILL RUN IN THE LOWER 40KT RANGE
SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ACROSS MAINE
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DROP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
INITIALLY THERE WILL JUST BE PATCHY RAIN SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM
CONVECTION AND MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A STEADIER
LINE OF SHOWERS WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. TEMPERATURE WILL DROP AS THIS OCCURS...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO ABOUT -15C FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS IS COLD ENOUGH TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...WITH THE NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW CAUSING SOME
UPSLOPING. IN ADDITION...THE BACK OF A TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE AND LIFT.
THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF UPSLOPE REGION SUCH AS THE TUG HILL AND HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. IN THESE LOCATIONS A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE
EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER LAKES AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AIRMASS BECOMES VERY DRY.
EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
COASTLINE. THIS STORM WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MAY AID IN
PULLING ENOUGH MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A SNOW
SHOWER ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MAY BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION MONDAY...A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE LAKES...WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SQUEEZE ACROSS THE REGION...THIS FEATURE
BETWEEN A BROAD ATLANTIC STORM SYSTEM...AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN EARLY SNOW SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE DRY TUESDAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WARM
FRONT IS LIKELY TO LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...COUPLED WITH WARMER AIR FLOODING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY COULD VERY WELL REACH INTO THE
50S...TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA IN KROC/KART
TAFS TO COVER FOR THIS. SOME SMALL HAIL HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED
WITHIN THE STRONGER STORM CORES AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. THE WESTERN
TAFS ARE NOW CLEAR OF THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TSTMS WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST.
TONIGHT EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT ALONG
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE
FOR KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW.
THURSDAY THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR TODAYS STORMS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES. THIS WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS GUSTY
WINDS WHICH WILL LIKELY REACH OVER 40KTS DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEVERAL SHORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT WINDS
AND WAVES OUTSIDE OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.
ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS OVER LAKE ERIE UNDER
A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL BUILD WAVES ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER.
A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LIKELY BRINGING SCA
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ002-003-
010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ020-040-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
241 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG LATE- SEASON COLD
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO
MANY AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE ARE
ORIENTED WITHIN A REGION OF 250-500 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE PER
SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE TRIPLE
POINT BEING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. RADAR ELEVATION
SLICES SHOW THAT 40-50 DBZ CORE IS EXTENDING ABOVE THE 0C LEVEL SO
SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES
MOVING OVER AND EAST OF ROCHESTER. SEVERAL REPORTS OF THIS HAVE
RECENTLY COME INTO THE OFFICE.
FOLLOWING RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES.
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS EXPECT MOST OF
THE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND OF LAKE SHADOWS NORTHEAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MID 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE
FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE
SHADOWS SHOULD KEEP THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING BUFFALO MAINLY
DRY...AND ALSO NEAR WATERTOWN AS WELL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS MIXING OCCURS
AND FUNNELING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-40
KNOT RANGE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NEW YORK TO THE FINGER LAKES. 12Z BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE
THAT MEAN MOMENTUM TRANSPORT GUSTS WILL RUN IN THE LOWER 40KT RANGE
SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
MAINE...WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY SHARPENING AND DIGGING
SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIP COVERAGE PEAKING
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS DPVA AHEAD OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL COOL THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO QUICKLY
CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
THAN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON FRIDAY.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT THE AIRMASS GROWS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
LAKE RESPONSE ON FRIDAY AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO
AROUND 7K FEET. THIS WILL SUPPORT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EXPECT A COATING TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION WITH
AN ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE DRAMATICALLY
COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH MID 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WILL END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AIRMASS BECOMES VERY DRY.
EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE RETURN OF
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING A CONSTANT FEED OF FRESH CANADIAN AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE TO GO ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS NOW IN KEEPING A COASTAL LOW MUCH
TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INSTEAD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
SOME LOCAL MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA IN KROC/KART
TAFS TO COVER FOR THIS. SOME SMALL HAIL HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED
WITHIN THE STRONGER STORM CORES AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. THE WESTERN
TAFS ARE NOW CLEAR OF THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TSTMS WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST.
TONIGHT EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT ALONG
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE
FOR KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW.
THURSDAY THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR TODAYS STORMS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES. THIS WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS GUSTY
WINDS WHICH WILL LIKELY REACH OVER 40KTS DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEVERAL SHORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT WINDS
AND WAVES OUTSIDE OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.
ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS OVER LAKE ERIE UNDER
A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL BUILD WAVES ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER.
A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LIKELY BRINGING SCA
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ002-003-
010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ020-040-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
231 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG LATE- SEASON COLD
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO
MANY AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE ARE
ORIENTED WITHIN A REGION OF 2000-3000 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE PER
SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE TRIPLE
POINT BEING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. RADAR ELEVATION
SLICES SHOW THAT 40-50 DBZ CORE IS EXTENDING ABOVE THE 0C LEVEL SO
SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES
MOVING OVER AND EAST OF ROCHESTER. SEVERAL REPORTS OF THIS HAVE
RECENTLY COME INTO THE OFFICE.
FOLLOWING RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES.
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS EXPECT MOST OF
THE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND OF LAKE SHADOWS NORTHEAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MID 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE
FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE
SHADOWS SHOULD KEEP THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING BUFFALO MAINLY
DRY...AND ALSO NEAR WATERTOWN AS WELL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS MIXING OCCURS
AND FUNNELING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-40
KNOT RANGE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NEW YORK TO THE FINGER LAKES. 12Z BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE
THAT MEAN MOMENTUM TRANSPORT GUSTS WILL RUN IN THE LOWER 40KT RANGE
SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
MAINE...WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY SHARPENING AND DIGGING
SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIP COVERAGE PEAKING
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS DPVA AHEAD OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL COOL THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO QUICKLY
CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
THAN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON FRIDAY.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT THE AIRMASS GROWS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
LAKE RESPONSE ON FRIDAY AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO
AROUND 7K FEET. THIS WILL SUPPORT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EXPECT A COATING TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION WITH
AN ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE DRAMATICALLY
COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH MID 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WILL END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AIRMASS BECOMES VERY DRY.
EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE RETURN OF
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING A CONSTANT FEED OF FRESH CANADIAN AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE TO GO ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS NOW IN KEEPING A COASTAL LOW MUCH
TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INSTEAD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
SOME LOCAL MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA IN KROC/KART
TAFS TO COVER FOR THIS. SOME SMALL HAIL HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED
WITHIN THE STRONGER STORM CORES AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. THE WESTERN
TAFS ARE NOW CLEAR OF THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TSTMS WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST.
TONIGHT EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT ALONG
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE
FOR KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW.
THURSDAY THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR TODAYS STORMS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES. THIS WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS GUSTY
WINDS WHICH WILL LIKELY REACH OVER 40KTS DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEVERAL SHORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT WINDS
AND WAVES OUTSIDE OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.
ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS OVER LAKE ERIE UNDER
A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL BUILD WAVES ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER.
A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LIKELY BRINGING SCA
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ002-003-
010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ020-040-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1132 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD BEFORE A STRONG LATE-SEASON
COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW TO MANY AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR LATE THIS MORNING IS DISPLAYING SEVERAL BROKEN LINES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE
ARE ORIENTED WITHIN A REGION OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS AND ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE TRIPLE POINT
BEING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. RADAR ELEVATION SLICES SHOW
THAT 40-50 DBZ CORE IS EXTENDING ABOVE THE 0C LEVEL SO SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. SEVERAL REPORTS
OF THIS HAVE RECENTLY COME INTO THE OFFICE.
FOLLOWING RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK TODAY BEFORE
FALLING LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF LOWER
MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING WILL OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A KICKER TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH QUEBEC. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER
ASCENT WILL REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BEGIN BY EARLY TO MID MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A PAIR OF
SUBTLE TROUGHS CROSSING THE AREA.
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND INLAND OF STABLE LAKE SHADOWS FOUND NORTHEAST OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO AS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...FORCING STRONG LAPSE RATES. INSTABILITY MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY FROM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A STABLE LAKE SHADOW SHOULD KEEP THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER INCLUDING BUFFALO MAINLY DRY...AND ALSO NEAR WATERTOWN AS
WELL.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN MODERATELY
STRONG WITH 40-50 KNOTS JUST OFF THE DECK. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND FUNNELING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-40
KNOT RANGE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER. THE GFS IS 5-10 KNOTS STRONGER
WITH THE WIND FIELD THAN THE NAM...AND IF THE STRONGER GFS VERIFIES
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
MAINE...WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY SHARPENING AND DIGGING SOUTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIP COVERAGE PEAKING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS DPVA AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL COOL THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO QUICKLY CHANGE RAIN
TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MORE THAN COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON FRIDAY.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT THE AIRMASS GROWS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
LAKE RESPONSE ON FRIDAY AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO
AROUND 7K FEET. THIS WILL SUPPORT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EXPECT A COATING TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION WITH
AN ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE DRAMATICALLY
COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH MID 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WILL END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AIRMASS BECOMES VERY DRY.
EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE RETURN OF
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING A CONSTANT FEED OF FRESH CANADIAN AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE TO GO ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS NOW IN KEEPING A COASTAL LOW MUCH
TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INSTEAD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
SOME LOCAL MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA IN THE
WESTERN TAFS TO COVER FOR THIS. SOME SMALL HAIL HAS ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN THE BUFFALO AREA AND CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN STRONGER
CORES AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. THESE TSTMS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
EAST.
TONIGHT EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT ALONG
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE
FOR KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SEVERAL SHORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BRINGING A
MODERATE CHOP TO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A 4 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN NEARSHORE ZONES...HOWEVER
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND HIGHER WAVES ABOVE 3 FEET
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AFTER TODAY`S SYSTEM...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
ON THE LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...LIKELY BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
928 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD BEFORE A STRONG LATE-SEASON
COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW TO MANY AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY INTO THE FINGER LAKES AT 9AM
THIS MORNING. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION FROM AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT. EARLIER STRONGER CONVECTION HAS SINCE WEAKENED
AS IT MOVED OUT AHEAD OF A REGION OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO CONTINUE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CNY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WHILE CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN/FALL APART PER RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE.
OFF TO THE WEST...ANOTHER LINE OR BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IS
ORIENTED FROM LAKE HURON SOUTH TO NE OHIO ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT WITH THE TRIPLE POINT BEING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BRING IN THIS SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK AND
AND AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS ALSO
FOLLOWS TO WELL PERFORMING HRRR GUIDANCE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK TODAY BEFORE
FALLING LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF LOWER
MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING WILL OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A KICKER TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH QUEBEC. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER
ASCENT WILL REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BEGIN BY EARLY TO MID MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A PAIR OF
SUBTLE TROUGHS CROSSING THE AREA.
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND INLAND OF STABLE LAKE SHADOWS FOUND NORTHEAST OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO AS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...FORCING STRONG LAPSE RATES. INSTABILITY MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY FROM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A STABLE LAKE SHADOW SHOULD KEEP THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER INCLUDING BUFFALO MAINLY DRY...AND ALSO NEAR WATERTOWN AS
WELL.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN MODERATELY
STRONG WITH 40-50 KNOTS JUST OFF THE DECK. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND FUNNELING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-40
KNOT RANGE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER. THE GFS IS 5-10 KNOTS STRONGER
WITH THE WIND FIELD THAN THE NAM...AND IF THE STRONGER GFS VERIFIES
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
MAINE...WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY SHARPENING AND DIGGING SOUTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIP COVERAGE PEAKING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS DPVA AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL COOL THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO QUICKLY CHANGE RAIN
TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MORE THAN COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON FRIDAY.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT THE AIRMASS GROWS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
LAKE RESPONSE ON FRIDAY AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO
AROUND 7K FEET. THIS WILL SUPPORT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EXPECT A COATING TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION WITH
AN ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE DRAMATICALLY
COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH MID 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WILL END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AIRMASS BECOMES VERY DRY.
EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE RETURN OF
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING A CONSTANT FEED OF FRESH CANADIAN AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE TO GO ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS NOW IN KEEPING A COASTAL LOW MUCH
TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INSTEAD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
SOME LOCAL MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE SHOWING A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING
AS A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MOVES EAST ALONG AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO A MIX OF IFR/MVFR BY THE
MIDDAY HOUR WHEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AN APPROACHING
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS LINE IS OBSERVED ON RADAR SO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF THIS WILL KEEP VCTS IN THE TAFS. UPDATES WILL BE MADE
AS THIS FURTHER APPROACHES.
TONIGHT EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT ALONG
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FOR KBUF/KIAG/KROC.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SEVERAL SHORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BRINGING A
MODERATE CHOP TO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A 4 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN NEARSHORE ZONES...HOWEVER
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND HIGHER WAVES ABOVE 3 FEET
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AFTER TODAY`S SYSTEM...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
ON THE LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...LIKELY BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS UPDATE MAINLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WERE ALLOWING A BIT MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT WITH TIME INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MOVING IN FROM MONTANA
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY THERE FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THUS EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MID 20S SOUTHWEST
TO UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
ANY RADAR ECHOES ARE NEGLIGIBLE AND SUSPECT MAINLY VIRGA OCCURRING
AND LIKELY NO SPRINKLES HITTING THE GROUND. THIS HANDLED WELL IN
ONGOING FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AGAIN DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
AS EXPECTED...MOST OF THE SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING
SINCE ABOUT 01 UTC NOW THAT THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
WERE SAMPLED BY OUR EVENING BALLOON LAUNCH ARE DECREASING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. HOWEVER...EASTERN MT RADAR IMAGES SHOW A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING...SO THEY ARE LIKELY BEING DRIVEN
BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. RECENT HRRR AND RAP SIMULATIONS DO SUGGEST
SOME MAINTENANCE OF THAT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL ABOUT 07 UTC
IN WESTERN ND...SO WE EXTENDED LOW-END POPS THROUGH THAT TIME. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO NUDGED DOWNWARD A BIT IN SOME LOCALES WITH
THIS UPDATE GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS WITH OBSERVED 02 UTC DEWPOINTS
MAINLY FROM 15 TO 25 F ACROSS THE AREA.
NOTE THAT WE DID CONSIDER ADDING LOW POPS TO NORTHWESTERN ND LATE
TONIGHT AS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS...BUT OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO SO YET. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
UPDATE MAY NEED TO ADD SOME PENDING LATER MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WE EXTENDED OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANOTHER 2 HOURS UNTIL 02
UTC /9 PM CDT/ WITH THIS UPDATE...AND SPREAD THE MENTION EASTWARD
A BIT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ND /INTO THE BISMARCK AREA/. THIS WAS
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS...WHICH REVEAL QUITE A FEW SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CELLS FROM NEAR BEULAH AND CARSON AND WESTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN MT. WE STILL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASE WITH SUNSET...BUT WANTED TO GIVE
IT A BIT MORE TIME TO END...ESPECIALLY SINCE RECENT RAP AND HRRR
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST A FEW CELLS COULD LINGER INTO MID EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WITH
HIGH OVER THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH TROUGH DIPPING TO THE SOUTH WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. A FEW
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WEAK ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...A MAINLY QUIET NIGHT IS ON TAP.
ON WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WEAKENS WHILE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT SHIFTS OVER
WISCONSIN. A FEW SHORT WAVES SLIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGING A LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVER
THE AREA AND DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO
WORK DOWN. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEPS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE MOST PART
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING OVER CENTRAL ND ON THURSDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK...WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THUS RIGHT NOW OUR MODEL
BLEND SOLUTION IS ONLY DEPICTING SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND UNTIL
ABOUT 07-08Z...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN
TAF SITES KDIK/KBIS/KJMS...BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND AT KISN/KMOT FROM AROUND 12Z-18Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEGINNING AROUND 15Z-16Z
AND PEAKING FROM 18Z-00Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-26 KNOTS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE LIKELY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ040-041-
043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
920 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AND TRACK SE
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING INDICATED VERY DEEP MIXING TODAY...WITH
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (ESSENTIALLY DRY ADIABATIC) AS HIGH AS
12KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE. DECOUPLING AFTER 00Z HAS QUICKLY SET
IN...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KNOTS...AND A QUICK DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. THERE IS AN OBVIOUS WSW-TO-ENE BOUNDARY ON KILN
RADAR...NOW APPROACHING THE WILMINGTON AREA. WINDS BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY HAVE SHIFTED (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) TO THE NORTHWEST.
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED...AS THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH NOTHING TO SHOW FOR IT ON ANY OF THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. VIRGA (WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
REACHING THE GROUND) WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...THOUGH RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND VIRGA COMING IN LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
EITHER WAY...AT THIS POINT...IT IS ESSENTIALLY A ZERO-IMPACT
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ROUGHLY ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...ALLOWING FOR A BIGGER DROP THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH
MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR THE ILN CWA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW TO OPEN UP AND DROP
SE THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP MIXING HAS LED TO GUSTY
WINDS AND DRIER AIR. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH...ALONG WITH RH
VALUES RH VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT. THESE VALUES ALONG WITH 10
HOUR FUEL VALUES OF 5 TO 7 PERCENT HAS PLACED THE REGION IN RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING THRU 8
PM...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND RH VALUES START TO
COME UP.
DIURNAL CU FIELD EVIDENT ON SATL IMGRY...THICKEST OVER THE EAST...
WHERE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED. THESE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. AFTER THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS FROM THE
MID 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE LEFT OVER PV WILL START TO CLOSE
OFF AND FORM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER IOWA. GLOBAL MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE HERE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER FORECASTED AT THE SURFACE. AS OF CURRENT
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN PROGRESSING THE LOW TO QUICKLY
TO THE EAST WHILE THE NAM AND EURO HOLD THE LOW BACK FOR SLIGHTLY
LONGER. GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN THAT IS INITIALLY FORECASTED TO
SET UP HAVE TRENDED THE GRIDS TO THE SLOWER EURO/ NAM SOLUTION.
FOR FRIDAY AM EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
CONDITIONS AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO
DECREASE. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FORECASTED. HAVE
ALSO CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCE OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTH. HAVE EXPANDED
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA GIVEN THE UPPER LOW EVEN
THOUGH MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE (PWATS AROUND 0.40").
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS REMAINED HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GENERAL SOLUTION APPEARS FOR MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES FOR SATURDAY WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WITH ALL SNOW AND ALL RAIN AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL DICTATE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM. THIS REGIME WILL
FEATURE LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE PERIOD ALLOWING A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FOR SUNDAY...A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE ILN AREA. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES MONDAY WHEN THE LOW WILL BE TRACKING TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.
PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION ON TUESDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE MOVING EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTH NEAR A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ALIGNED ALONG A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. A
COLD FRONT SAGGING TOWARD THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THAT
SCENARIO DUE TO MODEL TIMING INCONSISTENCY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S. WARM ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BOOST READINGS TO NEAR NORMAL 50S ON TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE
60S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS IS COMING TO AN END...WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW (UNDER 10 KNOTS) EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS AND OTHER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST...AND THERE ARE STILL SOME PATCHES OF VIRGA OR SPRINKLES
BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
ANY OF THE AIRPORTS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES
IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE...AND A FEW GUSTS EXPECTED TO AROUND 20
KNOTS (MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL OHIO AIRPORTS). CLOUDS WILL AGAIN
REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO LOWER GOING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SOME IFR VISIBILITIES MAY
BE POSSIBLE IF PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1052 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING.
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTHS
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 750-800MB BY MID AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD START TO
MIX INTO THE 40-45 KNOT WIND FIELD ALOFT AND SEE GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE OF 40-50 MPH.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING IN THE EAST. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEER ALONG THE FRONT
IS LEADING TO SOME ROTATION WITH THE STORMS BUT LITTLE TO NO
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE
THREAT. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW SMALL CORES GET HIGH ENOUGH THAT SMALL
HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY BUT ONLY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE WEST ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN TOLEDO
WILL MOSTLY MISS US TO THE NORTH. AFTER SOME BRIEF DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT LATE THIS MORNING...CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAYTIME. RESULTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH GREAT MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY WILL GIVE US
GUSTS THAT MEET/EXCEED 50 MPH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE EXPANDED
THE AREA OF THE WIND ADVISORY FROM NORTHWEST OHIO TO INCLUDE MORE
OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...INCLUDING CLE AND MFD.
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACKED NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO/NW PA OVERNIGHT ARE...AS OF 6 AM...WORKING THROUGH
FAR NW PA. SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF OCCLUDING AND EXPECT THE
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS MORNING
ANYWHERE...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES EXIST ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA. SO FAR CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE FRONT...BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING. OVERALL THREAT GONE BY MIDDAY AND WE BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
CLEARING/DRYING AND THE GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO WARM NICELY TODAY AND HAVE
GENERALLY GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND MORNING POPS WITH THIS EARLY
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...BUT THREAT FOR THE STRONGER GUSTS
WILL BE OVER MID EVENING/SUNSET. NO PLANS TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE ENDING TIME. LOOKING FOR LOWS RIGHT AROUND 40...WITH COLDER
AIR JUST SEEPING INTO THE REGION.
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS COLD AIR ALOFT MAKES BETTER PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT...FOCUSED MORE SO ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER WE MIGHT
GET ANY THUNDER OUT OF IT TOO. WILL GO WITH MID/UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS...RIGHT ALONG WITH GUIDANCE.
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT TEMPS ALOFT/THICKNESSES BEGIN TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
LITTLE/NOTHING IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
WE SLOWLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT
WITH A FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE...RETAIN THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS ON EITHER SIDE OF 40 NEAR THE LAKE...MID 40S WELL
INLAND.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE MIDWEST HEADED TO
THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON
SATURDAY...BUT COOL. WE MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF ANY PRECIP SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW CHILLY WE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY EMBEDDED IN A GENERAL UPPER TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN STATES. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD BE -8 TO -12C
SO THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF A COOL SNAP. MODELS SHOW
POCKETS OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA WITH THE LOW AS WELL AS A NWLY FLOW
OFF THE LAKE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE THERE. FOR THIS WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES WITH SNOW THE PRIMARY PTYPE IN THE
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN IN ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS SUNDAY
NIGHT THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKES BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE. WITH 850MB
TEMPS AGAIN WILL BELOW 00C WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. NO CHANGE MONDAY. TUESDAY
A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A WARM FRONT
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT OVERRUNNING PRECIP
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN
SOUGH AND A MIX POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO MOSTLY
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES. TEMPS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WARMING TO THE MID 50S BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW IN WISCONSIN. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS NOW TO OUR EAST AND
NORTHEAST. OCCLUDED FRONT NOW NEAR A KDFI-KFDY-KMNN LINE MOVING
QUICKLY EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT QUICKLY TURN
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS AS THE FRONT GOES
BY. CURRENT NO PRECIP OCCURRING IN THE AREA WITH OCCLUDED FRONT SO
FAR NOT ACTIVE HOWEVER THE HRRR DOES DEVELOP SHOWERS ON THE
BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST BETWEEN 12 AND
16Z. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING EAST OF KCLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR. HOWEVER SWLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH GUSTS
TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS WEST AND 30 TO 35 KNOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...A CHANCE FOR NON VFR IN SHRA THU EVG THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. NON VFR AGAIN SUNDAY
&&
.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE PREDAWN AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO WI. COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TODAY TURNING WINDS TO THE SW AND INCREASING INTO THE MID 20
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS HIGHEST WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DROPS BACK TO THE MID TEENS TONIGHT BUT INCREASES INTO THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE LOW DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN FRIDAY TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SATURDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
REGION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NORTH BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT AS IS. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO EXTEND INTO/THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>011-
017>020-027>030-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
723 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING.
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH GREAT
MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY WILL GIVE US GUSTS THAT MEET/EXCEED 50 MPH
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF THE WIND
ADVISORY FROM NORTHWEST OHIO TO INCLUDE MORE OF NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...INCLUDING CLE AND MFD.
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACKED NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO/NW PA OVERNIGHT ARE...AS OF 6 AM...WORKING THROUGH
FAR NW PA. SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF OCCLUDING AND EXPECT THE
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS MORNING
ANYWHERE...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES EXIST ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA. SO FAR CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE FRONT...BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING. OVERALL THREAT GONE BY MIDDAY AND WE BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
CLEARING/DRYING AND THE GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO WARM NICELY TODAY AND HAVE
GENERALLY GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND MORNING POPS WITH THIS EARLY
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...BUT THREAT FOR THE STRONGER GUSTS
WILL BE OVER MID EVENING/SUNSET. NO PLANS TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE ENDING TIME. LOOKING FOR LOWS RIGHT AROUND 40...WITH COLDER
AIR JUST SEEPING INTO THE REGION.
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS COLD AIR ALOFT MAKES BETTER PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT...FOCUSED MORE SO ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER WE MIGHT
GET ANY THUNDER OUT OF IT TOO. WILL GO WITH MID/UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS...RIGHT ALONG WITH GUIDANCE.
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT TEMPS ALOFT/THICKNESSES BEGIN TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
LITTLE/NOTHING IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
WE SLOWLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT
WITH A FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE...RETAIN THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS ON EITHER SIDE OF 40 NEAR THE LAKE...MID 40S WELL
INLAND.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE MIDWEST HEADED TO
THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON
SATURDAY...BUT COOL. WE MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF ANY PRECIP SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW CHILLY WE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY EMBEDDED IN A GENERAL UPPER TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN STATES. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD BE -8 TO -12C
SO THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF A COOL SNAP. MODELS SHOW
POCKETS OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA WITH THE LOW AS WELL AS A NWLY FLOW
OFF THE LAKE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE THERE. FOR THIS WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES WITH SNOW THE PRIMARY PTYPE IN THE
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN IN ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS SUNDAY
NIGHT THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKES BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE. WITH 850MB
TEMPS AGAIN WILL BELOW 00C WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. NO CHANGE MONDAY. TUESDAY
A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A WARM FRONT
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT OVERRUNNING PRECIP
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN
SOUGH AND A MIX POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO MOSTLY
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES. TEMPS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WARMING TO THE MID 50S BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW IN WISCONSIN. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS NOW TO OUR EAST AND
NORTHEAST. OCCLUDED FRONT NOW NEAR A KDFI-KFDY-KMNN LINE MOVING
QUICKLY EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT QUICKLY TURN
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS AS THE FRONT GOES
BY. CURRENT NO PRECIP OCCURRING IN THE AREA WITH OCCLUDED FRONT SO
FAR NOT ACTIVE HOWEVER THE HRRR DOES DEVELOP SHOWERS ON THE
BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST BETWEEN 12 AND
16Z. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING EAST OF KCLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR. HOWEVER SWLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH GUSTS
TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS WEST AND 30 TO 35 KNOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...A CHANCE FOR NON VFR IN SHRA THU EVG THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. NON VFR AGAIN SUNDAY
&&
.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE PREDAWN AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO WI. COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TODAY TURNING WINDS TO THE SW AND INCREASING INTO THE MID 20
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS HIGHEST WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DROPS BACK TO THE MID TEENS TONIGHT BUT INCREASES INTO THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE LOW DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN FRIDAY TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SATURDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
REGION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NORTH BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT AS IS. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO EXTEND INTO/THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>011-
017>020-027>030-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ146-147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
639 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING.
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH GREAT
MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY WILL GIVE US GUSTS THAT MEET/EXCEED 50 MPH
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF THE WIND
ADVISORY FROM NORTHWEST OHIO TO INCLUDE MORE OF NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...INCLUDING CLE AND MFD.
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACKED NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO/NW PA OVERNIGHT ARE...AS OF 6 AM...WORKING THROUGH
FAR NW PA. SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF OCCLUDING AND EXPECT THE
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS MORNING
ANYWHERE...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES EXIST ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA. SO FAR CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE FRONT...BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING. OVERALL THREAT GONE BY MIDDAY AND WE BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
CLEARING/DRYING AND THE GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO WARM NICELY TODAY AND HAVE
GENERALLY GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND MORNING POPS WITH THIS EARLY
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...BUT THREAT FOR THE STRONGER GUSTS
WILL BE OVER MID EVENING/SUNSET. NO PLANS TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE ENDING TIME. LOOKING FOR LOWS RIGHT AROUND 40...WITH COLDER
AIR JUST SEEPING INTO THE REGION.
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS COLD AIR ALOFT MAKES BETTER PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT...FOCUSED MORE SO ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER WE MIGHT
GET ANY THUNDER OUT OF IT TOO. WILL GO WITH MID/UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS...RIGHT ALONG WITH GUIDANCE.
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT TEMPS ALOFT/THICKNESSES BEGIN TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
LITTLE/NOTHING IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
WE SLOWLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT
WITH A FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE...RETAIN THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS ON EITHER SIDE OF 40 NEAR THE LAKE...MID 40S WELL
INLAND.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE MIDWEST HEADED TO
THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON
SATURDAY...BUT COOL. WE MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF ANY PRECIP SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW CHILLY WE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY EMBEDDED IN A GENERAL UPPER TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN STATES. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD BE -8 TO -12C
SO THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF A COOL SNAP. MODELS SHOW
POCKETS OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA WITH THE LOW AS WELL AS A NWLY FLOW
OFF THE LAKE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE THERE. FOR THIS WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES WITH SNOW THE PRIMARY PTYPE IN THE
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN IN ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS SUNDAY
NIGHT THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKES BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE. WITH 850MB
TEMPS AGAIN WILL BELOW 00C WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. NO CHANGE MONDAY. TUESDAY
A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A WARM FRONT
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT OVERRUNNING PRECIP
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN
SOUGH AND A MIX POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO MOSTLY
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES. TEMPS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WARMING TO THE MID 50S BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW INTO WI WITH WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESE INTO NRN OHIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AND AFFECT
MAINLY KERI HOWEVER THE SERN FRINGE WILL LIKELY BRUSH KCAK AND
KYNG BRIEFLY. THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN
INDIANA CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE AND
COULD AFFECT KTOL BUT OTHERWISE MAY NOT END UP AFFECTING THE AREA
EARLY ON. LATER IN THE MORNING HOWEVER THE HRRR HAS THIS
REDEVELOPING AND AFFECTING KCLE AND KERI SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO WATCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH LLWS FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. OTHERWISE
FOR THE DAY EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
HOWEVER SW WINDS WILL INCREASE GUSTING TO POSSIBLY 40-45KTS WEST
AND 35KTS OR SO EAST.
OUTLOOK...A CHANCE FOR NON VFR IN SHRA THU. NON VFR LIKELY FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE PREDAWN AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO WI. COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TODAY TURNING WINDS TO THE SW AND INCREASING INTO THE MID 20
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS HIGHEST WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DROPS BACK TO THE MID TEENS TONIGHT BUT INCREASES INTO THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE LOW DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN FRIDAY TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SATURDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
REGION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NORTH BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT AS IS. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO EXTEND INTO/THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>011-
017>020-027>030-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ146-147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
445 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING.
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH GREAT
MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY WILL GIVE US GUSTS THAT MEET/EXCEED 50 MPH
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF THE WIND
ADVISORY FROM NORTHWEST OHIO TO INCLUDE MORE OF NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...INCLUDING CLE AND MFD.
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACKED NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO OVERNIGHT ARE...AS OF 4 AM... WORKING THROUGH FAR
NE OH/NW PA. SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF OCCLUDING AND EXPECT THE
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS MORNING
ANYWHERE...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES EXIST ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA. SO FAR CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE FRONT...BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING. OVERALL THREAT GONE BY MIDDAY AND WE BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
CLEARING/DRYING AND THE GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO WARM NICELY TODAY AND HAVE
GENERALLY GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...BUT THREAT FOR THE STRONGER GUSTS
WILL BE OVER MID EVENING/SUNSET. NO PLANS TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE ENDING TIME. LOOKING FOR LOWS RIGHT AROUND 40...WITH COLDER
AIR JUST SEEPING INTO THE REGION.
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS COLD AIR ALOFT MAKES BETTER PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT...FOCUSED MORE SO ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER WE MIGHT
GET ANY THUNDER OUT OF IT TOO. WILL GO WITH MID/UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS...RIGHT ALONG WITH GUIDANCE.
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT TEMPS ALOFT/THICKNESSES BEGIN TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
LITTLE/NOTHING IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
WE SLOWLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT
WITH A FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE...RETAIN THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS ON EITHER SIDE OF 40 NEAR THE LAKE...MID 40S WELL
INLAND.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE MIDWEST HEADED TO
THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON
SATURDAY...BUT COOL. WE MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF ANY PRECIP SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW CHILLY WE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY EMBEDDED IN A GENERAL UPPER TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN STATES. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD BE -8 TO -12C
SO THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF A COOL SNAP. MODELS SHOW
POCKETS OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA WITH THE LOW AS WELL AS A NWLY FLOW
OFF THE LAKE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE THERE. FOR THIS WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES WITH SNOW THE PRIMARY PTYPE IN THE
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN IN ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS SUNDAY
NIGHT THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKES BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE. WITH 850MB
TEMPS AGAIN WILL BELOW 00C WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. NO CHANGE MONDAY. TUESDAY
A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A WARM FRONT
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT OVERRUNNING PRECIP
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN
SOUGH AND A MIX POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO MOSTLY
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES. TEMPS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WARMING TO THE MID 50S BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW INTO WI WITH WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESE INTO NRN OHIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AND AFFECT
MAINLY KERI HOWEVER THE SERN FRINGE WILL LIKELY BRUSH KCAK AND
KYNG BRIEFLY. THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN
INDIANA CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE AND
COULD AFFECT KTOL BUT OTHERWISE MAY NOT END UP AFFECTING THE AREA
EARLY ON. LATER IN THE MORNING HOWEVER THE HRRR HAS THIS
REDEVELOPING AND AFFECTING KCLE AND KERI SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO WATCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH LLWS FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. OTHERWISE
FOR THE DAY EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
HOWEVER SW WINDS WILL INCREASE GUSTING TO POSSIBLY 40-45KTS WEST
AND 35KTS OR SO EAST.
OUTLOOK...A CHANCE FOR NON VFR IN SHRA THU. NON VFR LIKELY FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE PREDAWN AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO WI. COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TODAY TURNING WINDS TO THE SW AND INCREASING INTO THE MID 20
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS HIGHEST WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DROPS BACK TO THE MID TEENS TONIGHT BUT INCREASES INTO THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE LOW DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN FRIDAY TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SATURDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
REGION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NORTH BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT AS IS. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO EXTEND INTO/THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR OHZ003-006>011-017>020-027>030-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ142>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ146-147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
128 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE TO
WISCONSIN BY MORNING. A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SAT PIX SHOW BAND OF CLOUDS THAT APPEAR TO BE FORMING FROM SRN
LAKE MI SE INTO W CNTRL OH. THIS MAY BE THE BEGINNING OF THE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND IN THE NW CO`S AND QUICKLY PROGRESS EAST
INTO NW PA BY 09Z. SOME OF THE LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM THE
ACTIVITY IN NRN IL SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE FAR NW CO`S BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. WILL BACK DOWN POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CO`S AS THE NEAR TERM
MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE OR NO QPF THERE.
NOT EXPECTING TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF
CHANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW THAN THE NAM.
THE SURFACE LOW OVER WI WILL STILL BE DEEPENING INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND LOCAL SCHEMES ARE SHOWING THAT WIND ADVISORY TYPE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO TIERS OF
COUNTIES. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK EAST OF KCLE. WILL HANG ON TO
THUNDER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN THE MORNING BUT REALLY EXPECT IT
TO BE OVER BY 12Z. BY 18Z ALL BUT NW PA SHOULD BE DRY. WINDS
SHOULD COME DOWN QUICK LATE IN THE DAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE DRY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THURSDAY AS THERE HAS
BEEN ALL WEEK. THE SLOW MOVING LOW TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE LOW WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT AND IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
FRIDAY. DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL DRY THINGS
OUT.
IT WILL BE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO
NORMAL ON FRIDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO
START THE EXTENDED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. THE AIRMASS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE FEATURE AND SOME
ADJUSTMENT IS LIKELY IN THIS TRACK. DID CONTINUE WITH SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO COOL WITH TEMPERATURES EVEN MARGINAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO WARM AS THE FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW INTO WI WITH WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESE INTO NRN OHIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AND AFFECT
MAINLY KERI HOWEVER THE SERN FRINGE WILL LIKELY BRUSH KCAK AND
KYNG BRIEFLY. THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN
INDIANA CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE AND
COULD AFFECT KTOL BUT OTHERWISE MAY NOT END UP AFFECTING THE AREA
EARLY ON. LATER IN THE MORNING HOWEVER THE HRRR HAS THIS
REDEVELOPING AND AFFECTING KCLE AND KERI SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO WATCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH LLWS FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. OTHERWISE
FOR THE DAY EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
HOWEVER SW WINDS WILL INCREASE GUSTING TO POSSIBLY 40-45KTS WEST
AND 35KTS OR SO EAST.
OUTLOOK...A CHANCE FOR NON VFR IN SHRA THU. NON VFR LIKELY FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN BASIN FOR A BRIEF WINDOW LATE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN BASIN STARTING AT 12Z AND CENTRAL BASIN AT 16Z AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD ON THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF LAKE INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CONTINUING. WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
LIGHT WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ142>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ146-147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
913 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AS WELL AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS WELL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN
HAZARD ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
4 AM TO NOON ON FRIDAY.
BEFORE 4 AM TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ON THE 850 MB FRONT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW STRONG OR SEVERE LIMITS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET
AND AFFECT MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A MANGUM TO PAULS VALLEY TO
DURANT LINE. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THESE
STORMS FORMING JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DUE TO
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MUCAPE 500-2000 J/KG AND STRONG
SHEAR...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 45-55 KT...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AND
MULTICELLS WOULD RESULT SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. SOME HAILSTONES MAY BE
NEAR THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. A FEW REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS OF 60
TO 70 MPH COULD OCCUR AS WELL...BUT IS LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. NO TORNADOES ARE
EXPECTED. STORMS MAY FIRST FORM NEAR THE ALTUS...HOBART...LAWTON...
OR FREDERICK AREAS IN THE 4 TO 7 AM TIME FRAME THEN MOVE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST...PERHAPS ORGANIZING INTO A CLUSTER OR LINE. NOT
EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT...BUT SOME REPORTS OF HAIL AND
WIND ARE POSSIBLE. MOST STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA
CITY METRO AREA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY AND COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALL DURING THE
DAY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY FORM BEHIND THE THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/
DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT SOME
SITES. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH BEST CHANCE BEING FRIDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HI RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE RED RIVER TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY SATURDAY AS DRY COOLER AIR FILLS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING MAY SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN MONDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S AND 70S. LEANED TOWARD MOS GUIDANCE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOK TO HAVE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AS GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH THE
DRY AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 46 53 33 56 / 20 40 10 0
HOBART OK 44 52 31 57 / 40 40 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 49 59 37 58 / 40 70 10 0
GAGE OK 36 47 25 55 / 20 30 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 40 50 28 55 / 10 50 10 0
DURANT OK 52 62 40 58 / 20 70 40 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ004>020.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PENDLETON OR
1035 PM PDT TUE MAR 15 2016
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OFFSHORE THIS EVENING
AND A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW IS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
RADAR IS SHOWING STEADILY DIMINISHING RETURNS, MAINLY OVER THE
CASCADES, THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS. ADDITIONALLY, THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RUC MODELS ARE NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE CUT
BACK ON THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WAVE COMING ASHORE LATER TONIGHT HEADING FOR
THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. HAVE LEFT A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THOSE AREAS AND TRIMMED BACK
ON PRECIP ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A DEGREE
OR SO. MADE SOME MINOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY OUT. PERRY
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MOISTURE AND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO RIDE OVER
AN OFFSHORE RIDGE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY SUBSIDED THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH, BUT SOME MODELS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK WAVE COMING ASHORE AND THAT MAY SET OFF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AT VARYING PERIODS FROM 08Z TO 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KYKM AND KPSC. KRDM AND KBDN MAY GET A RAIN/SNOW MIX. DURING
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AND SNOW MAY BRING
MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR BRIEF PERIODS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASIDE FROM SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT KDLS FROM 21Z-03Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERRY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM PDT TUE MAR 15 2016/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE U.S. WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS SUCH, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. INITIALLY THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST RESULTING IN
VARYING COVERAGES OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWER CHANCES
OVER OUR OREGON ZONES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS
WILL RUN BETWEEN 1500 AND 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, THUS EXPECT 2 INCHES OR LESS
SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL DRY OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THUS WILL SEE THE SHOWER CHANCES END WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST
LOCATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER
DUE TO CLEARER CONDITIONS. 90
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT COOLER...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EACH DAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
AT THIS POINT WE START TO BRING POPS BACK INTO THE MIX AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO SPIN MOISTURE BACK TO
THE AREA. THIS IS BASED ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION...HOWEVER THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST ABOUT A 24-36 DELAY IN THE TROUGH...AND
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AIR. CURRENTLY ALL MODELS AGREE THAT BY MONDAY
WE CAN EXPECT INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND SNOW LEVELS DOWN
AROUND 4-5KFT. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 34 51 30 51 / 20 30 0 0
ALW 37 52 34 54 / 20 20 0 0
PSC 35 54 30 55 / 10 10 0 0
YKM 30 55 26 54 / 10 10 0 0
HRI 35 54 28 55 / 20 10 0 0
ELN 30 51 28 51 / 10 0 0 0
RDM 29 49 23 51 / 20 20 0 0
LGD 31 48 28 50 / 30 30 10 10
GCD 31 49 25 49 / 30 20 10 0
DLS 38 55 34 55 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
83/89/89
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
735 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 AM UPDATE...
THUNDER CONTINUES INTO THE WRN MTNS...AND NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WRN PA AND ARE MOVING STEADILY INTO THE
CWA...CONTRARY TO THE HRRR AND RAP RUNS OF THE PAST FEW CYCLES.
UPPED POPS IN THE FIRST FEW HRS. THEY SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ON WITH
THE VERY LATEST RUN. THIS ARM OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH THRU BUT SHOULD
WEAKEN DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 3-4 HRS. HOWEVER...STILL ON
TRACK TO SEE ANOTHER BATCH DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SOME SUN MAY
PEEK THRU BEFORE THEY ARRIVE/DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING.
PREV...
CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE
SRN TIER. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEM TO BE MUCH BETTER VIZ-
WISE...PROBABLY DUE TO SOME MIXING WITH A TINY BIT OF WIND. ALSO
THE CLOUDS ADVANCING IN WITH THE WAA WILL HELP TO INSULATE AND
PERHAPS MITIGATE THE LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. A LITTLE MORE WIND
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR STARTING AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL HELP TO MIX
THE FOG AWAY. A SINGLE THUNDERSTORM IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
TOWARD ELK COUNTY...SO DID KEEP A MENTION OF T IN THE FORECAST
ALONG WITH CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE VISBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE PRETTY SLOWLY OVER THE EAST...SO HAVE KEPT THE FOG
ADVY RUNNING THRU 10 AM.
A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ROLL IN FROM THE WEST ALONG A WARM FRONT ALOFT VERY
SHORTLY IN THE NW...AND INTO THE SW AROUND SUNRISE OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE EARLIER. HOWEVER...THE BEST FORCING WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE
LIKE THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DISTINCT
WIND SHIFT RIGHT ALONG THE OH/IN BORDER AT 08Z AND THIS FEATURE
WILL ARRIVE IN THE W LATE MORNING...AND CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THUS...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SWRN HALF OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE NERN HALF WILL HAVE THEM MORE SO IN THE VERY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
BEFORE 6 PM TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT.
HOWEVER...AS THE FIRST VOLLEY OF DRIER/COOLER AIR COMES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FLARE UP IN THE NW LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WILL NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH AS
LOSS OF HEAT WILL KILL THEM OFF.
THE POTENCY OF ANY STORMS TODAY IS IN QUESTION...AS THE STABILITY
IS IN QUESTION. PLENTY OF CIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA AS THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND SOME INCREASING LLVL MSTR COMBINE
TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO WARM THINGS UP. ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE
CLEAR SKY NOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM...BUT THE
SERLY INFLOW WILL NOT REALLY KICK IN UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. EVEN
THEN IT IS NOT VERY STRONG. AS STATED PRIOR...THE WINDS/HODOGRAPH
FOR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY ARE INTERESTING. THE 50KT
WINDS OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING ARE ONLY 7KFT UP - WELL IN THE
SWEET SPOT FOR ISOLATED SVR GUSTS IF WE CAN GET RID OF THE
CIN/CAP. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF STRONG GUSTS/SEVERE AT
THIS POINT...AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE MORNING LLVL MSTR BURNS AWAY
OR HANGS ON. CERTAINLY SOME ELEVATED THUNDER IS LIKELY BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE SCT AND WILL WORD THE THUNDER AS SUCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SKY COVER WILL VARY TONIGHT WITH SOME INITIAL CLEARING THEN A
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND PERHAPS A SHOWER LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE
WEST. BUT MORE THAN LIKELY IT SHOULD STAY DRY OVER THE AREA AND
THE WIND SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT A MINIMUM. EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. 8H TEMPS INCH DOWN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STILL SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS...EVEN
BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BEHIND IT WILL MOVE
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL POP UP -
ESP IN THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THAT FIRST FRONT WILL BE LYING IN WAIT
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OR ALONG THE MD BORDER. SOME HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE IN THE AFTN COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHRA THERE AS WELL.
NOT RULING OUT THUNDER/SMALL HAIL AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP AND CAPE DOES DEVELOP DESPITE THE
GENERALLY DRY AIR. WILL KEEP ON WITH HIGHS IN THE L50S NW AND L60S
SE. THESE NUMBERS ARE STILL WELL /10F/ ABOVE NORMALS. SPRING IS
SPRINGING BUT THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL TAKE US
BACK TO NORMALS OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS ON FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT POISED ON OUR NORTHERN BORDER TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BY EARLY FRIDAY. SHOWERY PRECIP
WILL BECOME FOCUSED INVOF OF THIS BOUNDARY AND MIX WITH...OR
CHANGE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
FOR SATURDAY...PROVIDING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WIND AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.
BIG QUESTION STILL LIES IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME AS THE
SFC/UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND ENERGY DIGS SE THROUGH THE BACK SIDE
OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
MODEL BLEND INDICATES A CLOSE CALL WITH A LIKELY WESTERN ATLANTIC
STORM. 00Z AND 06Z U.S./EC RUNS STRAYED WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST WITH
A SFC WAVE AS SIGNIFICANT JET ENERGY APPEARED BROADER/MORE DISPERSED
ALONG THE JET CORE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE FOCUSED THIS ENERGY
ONCE AGAIN IN A MORE DISCRETE CHUNK...BUT STILL A LITTLE TOO FAR
SOUTH AND EAST /WITH PHASING OF NRN STREAM ENERGY STILL LAGGING A
BIT/ TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON US HERE IN CENTRAL PENN AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. P-TYPE AT THIS POINT IS NOT IN QUESTION AS IT
WAS YESTERDAY...GIVER THE MORE EASTERN/COLDER STORM TRACK.
THE MOST OMINOUS MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE 06Z DGEX...WHICH SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/S EC AND GFS RUNS...BRINGS A POTENT SUB-990MB LOW RIGHT
ALONG THE VA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A HEAVY
LATE MARCH SNOWSTORM FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN. WE NEED TO
EMPHASIZE AT THIS POINT THAT THIS IS STILL AN OUTLIER...THOUGH THERE
ARE ALSO A HANDFUL OF GEFS MEMBERS THAT COINCIDE WITH THIS SAME
GENERAL SCENARIO.
MONDAY SHOULD BE COLD WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.
MOST SITES STILL HAVE FOG.
BEEN WATCHING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST.
JST REPORTED THUNDER EARLIER.
STORMS SW BUF STILL BUILDING UP...TOPS OVER 30K FEET NOW.
IN ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NW...AT BFD BETWEEN 14Z TO 19Z.
OUTLOOK...
THU...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE.
FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...POSS RAIN/SNOW COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-
025>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
621 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 AM UPDATE...
THUNDER CONTINUES INTO THE WRN MTNS...AND NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WRN PA AND ARE MOVING STEADILY INTO THE
CWA...CONTRARY TO THE HRRR AND RAP RUNS OF THE PAST FEW CYCLES.
UPPED POPS IN THE FIRST FEW HRS. THEY SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ON WITH
THE VERY LATEST RUN. THIS ARM OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH THRU BUT SHOULD
WEAKEN DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 3-4 HRS. HOWEVER...STILL ON
TRACK TO SEE ANOTHER BATCH DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SOME SUN MAY
PEEK THRU BEFORE THEY ARRIVE/DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING.
PREV...
CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE
SRN TIER. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEM TO BE MUCH BETTER VIZ-
WISE...PROBABLY DUE TO SOME MIXING WITH A TINY BIT OF WIND. ALSO
THE CLOUDS ADVANCING IN WITH THE WAA WILL HELP TO INSULATE AND
PERHAPS MITIGATE THE LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. A LITTLE MORE WIND
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR STARTING AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL HELP TO MIX
THE FOG AWAY. A SINGLE THUNDERSTORM IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
TOWARD ELK COUNTY...SO DID KEEP A MENTION OF T IN THE FORECAST
ALONG WITH CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE VISBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE PRETTY SLOWLY OVER THE EAST...SO HAVE KEPT THE FOG
ADVY RUNNING THRU 10 AM.
A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ROLL IN FROM THE WEST ALONG A WARM FRONT ALOFT VERY
SHORTLY IN THE NW...AND INTO THE SW AROUND SUNRISE OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE EARLIER. HOWEVER...THE BEST FORCING WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE
LIKE THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DISTINCT
WIND SHIFT RIGHT ALONG THE OH/IN BORDER AT 08Z AND THIS FEATURE
WILL ARRIVE IN THE W LATE MORNING...AND CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THUS...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SWRN HALF OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE NERN HALF WILL HAVE THEM MORE SO IN THE VERY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
BEFORE 6 PM TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT.
HOWEVER...AS THE FIRST VOLLEY OF DRIER/COOLER AIR COMES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FLARE UP IN THE NW LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WILL NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH AS
LOSS OF HEAT WILL KILL THEM OFF.
THE POTENCY OF ANY STORMS TODAY IS IN QUESTION...AS THE STABILITY
IS IN QUESTION. PLENTY OF CIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA AS THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND SOME INCREASING LLVL MSTR COMBINE
TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO WARM THINGS UP. ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE
CLEAR SKY NOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM...BUT THE
SERLY INFLOW WILL NOT REALLY KICK IN UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. EVEN
THEN IT IS NOT VERY STRONG. AS STATED PRIOR...THE WINDS/HODOGRAPH
FOR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY ARE INTERESTING. THE 50KT
WINDS OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING ARE ONLY 7KFT UP - WELL IN THE
SWEET SPOT FOR ISOLATED SVR GUSTS IF WE CAN GET RID OF THE
CIN/CAP. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF STRONG GUSTS/SEVERE AT
THIS POINT...AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE MORNING LLVL MSTR BURNS AWAY
OR HANGS ON. CERTAINLY SOME ELEVATED THUNDER IS LIKELY BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE SCT AND WILL WORD THE THUNDER AS SUCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SKY COVER WILL VARY TONIGHT WITH SOME INITIAL CLEARING THEN A
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND PERHAPS A SHOWER LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE
WEST. BUT MORE THAN LIKELY IT SHOULD STAY DRY OVER THE AREA AND
THE WIND SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT A MINIMUM. EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. 8H TEMPS INCH DOWN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STILL SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS...EVEN
BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BEHIND IT WILL MOVE
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL POP UP -
ESP IN THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THAT FIRST FRONT WILL BE LYING IN WAIT
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OR ALONG THE MD BORDER. SOME HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE IN THE AFTN COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHRA THERE AS WELL.
NOT RULING OUT THUNDER/SMALL HAIL AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP AND CAPE DOES DEVELOP DESPITE THE
GENERALLY DRY AIR. WILL KEEP ON WITH HIGHS IN THE L50S NW AND L60S
SE. THESE NUMBERS ARE STILL WELL /10F/ ABOVE NORMALS. SPRING IS
SPRINGING BUT THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL TAKE US
BACK TO NORMALS OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS ON FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT POISED ON OUR NORTHERN BORDER TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BY EARLY FRIDAY. SHOWERY PRECIP
WILL BECOME FOCUSED INVOF OF THIS BOUNDARY AND MIX WITH...OR
CHANGE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
FOR SATURDAY...PROVIDING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WIND AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.
BIG QUESTION STILL LIES IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME AS THE
SFC/UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND ENERGY DIGS SE THROUGH THE BACK SIDE
OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
MODEL BLEND INDICATES A CLOSE CALL WITH A LIKELY WESTERN ATLANTIC
STORM. 00Z AND 06Z U.S./EC RUNS STRAYED WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST WITH
A SFC WAVE AS SIGNIFICANT JET ENERGY APPEARED BROADER/MORE DISPERSED
ALONG THE JET CORE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE FOCUSED THIS ENERGY
ONCE AGAIN IN A MORE DISCRETE CHUNK...BUT STILL A LITTLE TOO FAR
SOUTH AND EAST /WITH PHASING OF NRN STREAM ENERGY STILL LAGGING A
BIT/ TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON US HERE IN CENTRAL PENN AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. P-TYPE AT THIS POINT IS NOT IN QUESTION AS IT
WAS YESTERDAY...GIVER THE MORE EASTERN/COLDER STORM TRACK.
THE MOST OMINOUS MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE 06Z DGEX...WHICH SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/S EC AND GFS RUNS...BRINGS A POTENT SUB-990MB LOW RIGHT
ALONG THE VA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A HEAVY
LATE MARCH SNOWSTORM FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN. WE NEED TO
EMPHASIZE AT THIS POINT THAT THIS IS STILL AN OUTLIER...THOUGH THERE
ARE ALSO A HANDFUL OF GEFS MEMBERS THAT COINCIDE WITH THIS SAME
GENERAL SCENARIO.
MONDAY SHOULD BE COLD WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.
MOST SITES STILL HAVE FOG.
BEEN WATCHING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
IN ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NW...AT BFD BETWEEN 14Z TO 19Z.
OUTLOOK...
THU...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE.
FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...POSS RAIN/SNOW COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-
025>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
553 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 AM UPDATE...
THUNDER CONTINUES INTO THE WRN MTNS...AND NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WRN PA AND ARE MOVING STEADILY INTO THE
CWA...CONTRARY TO THE HRRR AND RAP RUNS OF THE PAST FEW CYCLES.
UPPED POPS IN THE FIRST FEW HRS. THEY SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ON WITH
THE VERY LATEST RUN. THIS ARM OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH THRU BUT SHOULD
WEAKEN DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 3-4 HRS. HOWEVER...STILL ON
TRACK TO SEE ANOTHER BATCH DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SOME SUN MAY
PEEK THRU BEFORE THEY ARRIVE/DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING.
PREV...
CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE
SRN TIER. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEM TO BE MUCH BETTER VIZ-
WISE...PROBABLY DUE TO SOME MIXING WITH A TINY BIT OF WIND. ALSO
THE CLOUDS ADVANCING IN WITH THE WAA WILL HELP TO INSULATE AND
PERHAPS MITIGATE THE LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. A LITTLE MORE WIND
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR STARTING AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL HELP TO MIX
THE FOG AWAY. A SINGLE THUNDERSTORM IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
TOWARD ELK COUNTY...SO DID KEEP A MENTION OF T IN THE FORECAST
ALONG WITH CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE VISBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE PRETTY SLOWLY OVER THE EAST...SO HAVE KEPT THE FOG
ADVY RUNNING THRU 10 AM.
A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ROLL IN FROM THE WEST ALONG A WARM FRONT ALOFT VERY
SHORTLY IN THE NW...AND INTO THE SW AROUND SUNRISE OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE EARLIER. HOWEVER...THE BEST FORCING WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE
LIKE THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DISTINCT
WIND SHIFT RIGHT ALONG THE OH/IN BORDER AT 08Z AND THIS FEATURE
WILL ARRIVE IN THE W LATE MORNING...AND CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THUS...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SWRN HALF OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE NERN HALF WILL HAVE THEM MORE SO IN THE VERY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
BEFORE 6 PM TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT.
HOWEVER...AS THE FIRST VOLLEY OF DRIER/COOLER AIR COMES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FLARE UP IN THE NW LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WILL NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH AS
LOSS OF HEAT WILL KILL THEM OFF.
THE POTENCY OF ANY STORMS TODAY IS IN QUESTION...AS THE STABILITY
IS IN QUESTION. PLENTY OF CIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA AS THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND SOME INCREASING LLVL MSTR COMBINE
TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO WARM THINGS UP. ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE
CLEAR SKY NOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM...BUT THE
SERLY INFLOW WILL NOT REALLY KICK IN UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. EVEN
THEN IT IS NOT VERY STRONG. AS STATED PRIOR...THE WINDS/HODOGRAPH
FOR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY ARE INTERESTING. THE 50KT
WINDS OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING ARE ONLY 7KFT UP - WELL IN THE
SWEET SPOT FOR ISOLATED SVR GUSTS IF WE CAN GET RID OF THE
CIN/CAP. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF STRONG GUSTS/SEVERE AT
THIS POINT...AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE MORNING LLVL MSTR BURNS AWAY
OR HANGS ON. CERTAINLY SOME ELEVATED THUNDER IS LIKELY BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE SCT AND WILL WORD THE THUNDER AS SUCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SKY COVER WILL VARY TONIGHT WITH SOME INITIAL CLEARING THEN A
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND PERHAPS A SHOWER LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE
WEST. BUT MORE THAN LIKELY IT SHOULD STAY DRY OVER THE AREA AND
THE WIND SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT A MINIMUM. EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. 8H TEMPS INCH DOWN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STILL SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS...EVEN
BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BEHIND IT WILL MOVE
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL POP UP -
ESP IN THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THAT FIRST FRONT WILL BE LYING IN WAIT
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OR ALONG THE MD BORDER. SOME HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE IN THE AFTN COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHRA THERE AS WELL.
NOT RULING OUT THUNDER/SMALL HAIL AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP AND CAPE DOES DEVELOP DESPITE THE
GENERALLY DRY AIR. WILL KEEP ON WITH HIGHS IN THE L50S NW AND L60S
SE. THESE NUMBERS ARE STILL WELL /10F/ ABOVE NORMALS. SPRING IS
SPRINGING BUT THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL TAKE US
BACK TO NORMALS OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS ON FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT POISED ON OUR NORTHERN BORDER TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BY EARLY FRIDAY. SHOWERY PRECIP
WILL BECOME FOCUSED INVOF OF THIS BOUNDARY AND MIX WITH...OR
CHANGE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
FOR SATURDAY...PROVIDING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WIND AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.
BIG QUESTION STILL LIES IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME AS THE
SFC/UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND ENERGY DIGS SE THROUGH THE BACK SIDE
OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
MODEL BLEND INDICATES A CLOSE CALL WITH A LIKELY WESTERN ATLANTIC
STORM. 00Z AND 06Z U.S./EC RUNS STRAYED WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST WITH
A SFC WAVE AS SIGNIFICANT JET ENERGY APPEARED BROADER/MORE DISPERSED
ALONG THE JET CORE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE FOCUSED THIS ENERGY
ONCE AGAIN IN A MORE DISCRETE CHUNK...BUT STILL A LITTLE TOO FAR
SOUTH AND EAST /WITH PHASING OF NRN STREAM ENERGY STILL LAGGING A
BIT/ TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON US HERE IN CENTRAL PENN AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. P-TYPE AT THIS POINT IS NOT IN QUESTION AS IT
WAS YESTERDAY...GIVER THE MORE EASTERN/COLDER STORM TRACK.
THE MOST OMINOUS MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE 06Z DGEX...WHICH SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/S EC AND GFS RUNS...BRINGS A POTENT SUB-990MB LOW RIGHT
ALONG THE VA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A HEAVY
LATE MARCH SNOWSTORM FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN. WE NEED TO
EMPHASIZE AT THIS POINT THAT THIS IS STILL AN OUTLIER...THOUGH THERE
ARE ALSO A HANDFUL OF GEFS MEMBERS THAT COINCIDE WITH THIS SAME
GENERAL SCENARIO.
MONDAY SHOULD BE COLD WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS SO FAR. STILL SOME CLDS TO THE NE...BUT MOST
AREAS CLEAR...THUS CONCERN ABOUT FOG.
ALSO HAVE TO LOOK OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. BEST DYNAMICS LIFT NW OF OUR AREA...BUT THINK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE MODELS SHOW. IF DEWPOINTS GET UP AROUND
50 OR HIGHER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG STORMS. HUGE AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER LAKE MI AT THE CURRENT TIME. AGAIN...THINK THAT
THE SOUTHERN EDGE WILL BE LIMITED...GIVEN TRACK OF DYNAMICS...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
IN ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NW...AT BFD BETWEEN 14Z TO 19Z.
OUTLOOK...
THU...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE.
FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...POSS RAIN/SNOW COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-
025>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
359 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A
SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
...SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
REVEALED THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX. THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN A COUPLE OF TONIGHT/S SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
FIRSTLY...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MILD
/COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT/. READINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE RED RIVER TO 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. IF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT STREAM AS FAR NORTH AS CURRENT
THINKING...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD TOO WARM....ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD FALL
SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO RESULT IN SOME
PATCHY FOG AND AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.
WITH REGARDS TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
REMAINS FAIRLY INCONSISTENT IN ITS SOLUTIONS BOTH IN TIME AND
SPACE FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. COARSER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...IS VERY INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING A CONVEYOR OF
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER 25 TO 35 KNOTS...WHICH WOULD
CERTAINLY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL. DUE TO THE LACK
OF FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE IN
THE AREAL COVERAGE REMAINS LOW. AS A RESULT...FORECAST POPS
TONIGHT REMAIN FAIRLY BROADBRUSHED. WITH THE BEST CONVEYOR OF
NORTHWARD THETA-E TRANSPORT GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THIS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL GENERALLY
SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.
FOR THURSDAY...MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO HAVE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE LOCATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT AND
PLACES THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO THE REST OF
THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH
ENOUGH TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DOWN
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES DOWN INTO THE MID
60S. SHOULD PRECIPITATION FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT THAN CURRENTLY THOUGHT...THESE VALUES
MAY BE TOO HIGH. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DE-STABILIZE THROUGH THE
DAY. MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A CAPPING
INVERSION...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND LIFTING OF THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IF MORE INSOLATION OCCURS THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST REFLECTS. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY /1500 TO 2000
J/KG / AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 30 TO 40 KT...STRONG TO A
FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE RED RIVER LATE IN THE DAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FAIRLY MILD. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WAA REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL.
FOR FRIDAY...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN CHALLENGING...THOUGH
MODEL AGREEMENT IS SURPRISINGLY A BIT HIGHER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. WHILE A MAJORITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...A FAIRLY POTENT TROUGH SHOULD
REINFORCE COLDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. WITH RAPID PRESSURE RISES
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SWEEP
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BETTER RAIN THREAT...INITIALLY ALONG THE RED
RIVER DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
LATER FOR OTHER PARTS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY PROFILES STILL
APPEAR TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR GRADUALLY
WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO THE
NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY SMALL LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP.
A HAIL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DUE TO THE WEAKENING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SIZES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF COLD
FROPA AS WELL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
...LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FOR SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS STRONG COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION IS USHERED IN. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-35 WILL CONTINUE AND MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA
AND 40S/50S ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE QUITE THE CHANGE
WITH REGARDS TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS! INDIVIDUALS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ON SATURDAY WILL WANT TO
DRESS ACCORDINGLY! HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE
50S AND 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. EXPECT A VERY CHILLY MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL FALL
INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS. THESE LOCATIONS MAY BE AT RISK FOR A
LATE SEASON FROST...BUT ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE EXAMINED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOW
LEVEL GULF AIR SHOULD BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE AND
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR
RETURNING NORTHWARD...AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU...A DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN...SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY AND MOVE EASTWARD. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.
BAIN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1242 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS THE FRONT THAT IS NOW
STALLED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE RAP LIFTS THIS FRONT RAPIDLY
NORTH INTO THE METROPLEX BY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS THE
NORTHERN-MOST OUTLIER. IF THIS SOLUTION DID OCCUR MVFR CIGS WOULD
CERTAINLY SPREAD INTO THE METROPLEX AFTER SUNRISE...AND THERE
WOULD BE A HIGHER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS FORECAST
HOWEVER...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE FORECAST CONSENSUS WHICH MOVES
THE FRONT AS FAR NORTH AS WACO. WILL BRING MVFR CIGS INTO WACO
AROUND 7Z WITH IFR AROUND 11Z. WILL BRING VFR CIGS INTO THE
METROPLEX AFTER DAYBREAK. AGAIN...ASIDE FROM THE RAP ALL MODELS
FORECAST THESE TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT.
OTHERWISE THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE
DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AREAWIDE
THURSDAY...BUT FORCING LOOKS LIMITED AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF RAIN OR STORMS OUT OF ALL OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW AREAL COVERAGE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BUT THESE
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AT 10KT AFTER SUNSET.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 55 71 56 65 46 / 20 30 40 40 30
WACO, TX 58 74 58 69 48 / 20 30 30 40 50
PARIS, TX 49 70 52 63 44 / 5 30 40 40 20
DENTON, TX 51 70 53 63 44 / 20 30 40 40 30
MCKINNEY, TX 50 70 53 63 44 / 10 30 40 40 30
DALLAS, TX 54 71 55 65 47 / 10 30 40 40 30
TERRELL, TX 53 72 54 65 46 / 10 30 40 40 30
CORSICANA, TX 57 74 57 67 48 / 20 30 30 40 40
TEMPLE, TX 61 74 61 70 49 / 20 30 30 40 50
MINERAL WELLS, TX 52 68 54 64 43 / 20 30 40 40 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
92/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1242 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.AVIATION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS THE FRONT THAT IS NOW
STALLED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE RAP LIFTS THIS FRONT RAPIDLY
NORTH INTO THE METROPLEX BY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS THE
NORTHERN-MOST OUTLIER. IF THIS SOLUTION DID OCCUR MVFR CIGS WOULD
CERTAINLY SPREAD INTO THE METROPLEX AFTER SUNRISE...AND THERE
WOULD BE A HIGHER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS FORECAST
HOWEVER...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE FORECAST CONSENSUS WHICH MOVES
THE FRONT AS FAR NORTH AS WACO. WILL BRING MVFR CIGS INTO WACO
AROUND 7Z WITH IFR AROUND 11Z. WILL BRING VFR CIGS INTO THE
METROPLEX AFTER DAYBREAK. AGAIN...ASIDE FROM THE RAP ALL MODELS
FORECAST THESE TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT.
OTHERWISE THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE
DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AREAWIDE
THURSDAY...BUT FORCING LOOKS LIMITED AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF RAIN OR STORMS OUT OF ALL OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW AREAL COVERAGE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BUT THESE
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AT 10KT AFTER SUNSET.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
YESTERDAY HAS REACHED THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE
RETURN FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE FRONT WILL START TO
RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
WARM ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA TONIGHT DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MOST RECENT ROUND OF
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ENOUGH LIFT WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE
ONSET OF SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. GOOD SHEAR AND MARGINAL LEVELS
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...WITH THE MOST LIKELY
AREA OF INITIATION NOW APPEARING TO BE BE NORTH OF I-20 AND WEST
OF I-35. EAST-SOUTHEAST STORM MOTION WOULD...HOWEVER...BRING
STORMS WHICH SURVIVE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TO AREAS ALONG OR
SOUTH OF I-20.
THE FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT....BUT THE BEST SHEAR IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE STRONGEST
WESTERLIES WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. BROAD-BRUSHED 30 POPS WILL
HAVE TO SUFFICE FOR NOW AND WE WILL ADJUST LATER IF HI-RES
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO FAVOR ONE REGION OVER ANOTHER. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE GENERALLY DISORGANIZED IN NATURE...BUT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
ON FRIDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SENDING A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH CONVECTION SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE FRONT. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE
INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE TOO LOW TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 78 55 71 56 65 / 5 20 30 40 40
WACO, TX 79 58 74 58 69 / 5 20 30 30 40
PARIS, TX 75 49 70 52 63 / 5 5 30 40 40
DENTON, TX 76 51 70 53 63 / 5 20 30 40 40
MCKINNEY, TX 75 50 70 53 63 / 5 10 30 40 40
DALLAS, TX 78 54 71 55 65 / 5 10 30 40 40
TERRELL, TX 77 53 72 54 65 / 5 10 30 40 40
CORSICANA, TX 79 57 74 57 67 / 5 20 30 30 40
TEMPLE, TX 79 61 74 61 70 / 10 20 30 30 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 77 52 68 54 64 / 5 20 30 40 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1220 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...A LOWERED DECK OF STRATUS BETWEEN 600 AND 1100 FEET IS
AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA...AND
THIS CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORMATION OF FOG FOR THE
REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS. RATHER THAN STICK WITH PREVAILING FOG
...A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORTHCOMING TAFS...AS WINDS
AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON THE FOG. FULL VFR WILL
LIKELY RETURN AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RISING CEILINGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...THE HRRR AND NAM...FOR EXAMPLE...SHOW A DEFINITE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE LOWER VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH DAWN.
THIS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT CEILINGS...WHICH WILL DIVE TO IFR...BUT
WINDS WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE...ESPECIALLY IN FOG FORMATION. WINDS
WILL BACK SLIGHTLY...TURNING FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OR EAST AND
WEAKENING. THE GFS GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM WITH
A FEW HOURS OF DENSE FOG AROUND DAWN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
THIS TAF SET REFLECTS THE NOTED TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE SHORT TERM
WILL EXPERIENCE QUIET WEATHER WITH NO RAIN ANTICIPATED. MAIN
WEATHER ELEMENTS OF CONCERN WILL BE DAYTIME HAZE AND OVERNIGHT
EARLY MORNING FOG AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WEDNESDAY FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO KEEP ANY IMPACTS TO OUR
NORTH. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT HOWEVER WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH MUCH LESS WIND IN THE FORECAST THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM.
THE SEASONAL AGRICULTURAL BURNS HAVE STARTED IN SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH
THE SMOKE BEING DIRECTING NORTH INTO SOUTH TEXAS WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE SMOKE IS PRODUCING HAZY CONDITIONS AND MODERATE
TO POOR AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS. NOT UNTIL THE ANTICIPATED COLD
FRONT FRIDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...WILL THE AREA SEE ANY
REDUCTION IN THE HAZY CONDITIONS. THE HAZE WILL MIX DOWN AND COMBINE
WITH DEVELOPING FOG OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS
AND WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH ELEMENTS WILL
LOWER VISIBILITIES TO ABOUT 1 MILE OR LESS. THE SIGNAL AMONG THE
MODELS IS NOT DEFINITE ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH WINDS
NOT GOING COMPLETELY CALM. EXPECTING A LAYER OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP
WHICH MIGHT BE PRETTY LOW AND HANG IN MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING
UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING HELPS MIX THROUGH THE SURFACE INVERSION.
OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER...WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS RUNNING 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THEN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND THE CONTINUED THICKER CIRRUS REDUCING SOME OF THE
NEAR SPRING EQUINOX HEATING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...FRONT BEGINNING TO SAG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY...WITH SOUTHWARD MOTION SLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
FRONT LOOKS TO BRIEFLY STALL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THROUGH ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POP CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD...PUSHED BY SFC HIGH BEHIND IT. LATER WEEKEND EVENTS ARE
INCONSISTENT...AS THEY HINGE ON LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE NC
COAST. SLOWER MODELS DEVELOP THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH
IN TURN HELPS THE SFC RIDGE DIG FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH
TEXAS...PUSHING MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION. FASTER MODELS HAVE THE
LOW DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA...WHICH IN TURN DRAG THE SFC
HIGH MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY...KEEPING
THE FRONT REMNANTS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE. USING A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD FORECAST...WHICH CURRENTLY COINCIDES WITH A ECMWF
SOLUTION...THE DRIER AIR DOES BRIEFLY ARRIVE SUNDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. HAVE KEPT SMALL POP CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY BEFORE LOWERING THEM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
PULLING UP STATIONARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECT TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE
FLOW BECOMES MODERATE TONIGHT AND LOW TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY. SEAS TO
STEADILY RESPOND SUBSIDING A FOOT OR TWO OVER INTO WEDNESDAY.
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1124 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS... TRENDS IN CURRENT TAFS STILL LOOK GOOD BUT
HAVE UPDATED FRONTAL TIMING WITH COLD FRONT HAVING CLEARED COLLEGE
STATION AND HUNTSVILLE AND ON TOP OF CONROE AS OF 04Z.
FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS /HOUSTON TERMINALS AND NORTHWARD/...
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM RADIATION FOG AHEAD OF FRONT
WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION... WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL BY 08Z.
FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS /ANGLETON AND GALVESTON/... SEA FOG HAS
KEPT VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE ALONG THE
COAST. HRRR AND SREF TRENDS STILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
TO LIFR VISIBILITIES ALONG THE COAST... BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE FRONT MAY REACH
GALVESTON/ANGLETON BEFORE STALLING AND ALLOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VISIBILITIES BEFORE 12Z.
OTHERWISE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW... WITH VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 3500FT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RETURN FLOW
RESUMES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT... WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A RETURN TO
MVFR CONDITIONS BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 56 82 61 78 60 / 10 10 10 40 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 62 82 64 79 62 / 10 10 10 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 76 67 74 65 / 10 10 10 20 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1126 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
NEW 00Z NAM AND 01Z HRRR BOTH HAVE VERY LITTLE PRECIP SOUTH OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH 12Z...SO HAVE BEGUN TO CUT BACK
OVERNIGHT POPS OVER THE PLAINS AND ALONG I25 FROM COLORADO
SPRINGS SOUTHWARD. ALSO MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO SURFACE
WINDS TO CAPTURE PERIOD OF NE GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS OVER THE PLAINS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
...WINTER WILL REVISIT SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
NEXT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES OF ID/WY/MT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...SFC FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH EL PASO COUNTY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST CO IS IN THE 60S. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH LOW CLOUDS
FILLING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SNOW BREAKING
OUT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS THE ASSOC UPPER JET TRANSLATES IN. MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE
SYSTEM STAYS A LITTLE OFF TO THE NORTH...WITH MAJORITY OF THE
FORCING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO CONSISTING OF SHALLOW UPSLOPE.
HOWEVER...PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH IS IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO
FORCING WITH THE UPPER JET...SHOULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF STEADY
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL...ACCUMULATIONS DO
NOT LOOK THAT HEAVY...BUT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES...COULD SEE SOME
IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
COLORADO SPRINGS...NORTHWARD TO MONUMENT HILL AS TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE LOWER 20S AND ROADS BEGIN TO ICE UP. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY STILL LOOK ON
TRACK...WITH PRIMARILY 2-5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY...AND 3 TO 7 FOR TELLER COUNTY. SNOW WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE
PUEBLO AREA AND MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF NARROW RIBBON OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE PUSH OF DEEPER COLD AIR...BUT SOUNDINGS QUICKLY
SATURATE DEEPLY ENOUGH FOR A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 MAY BE MOST AT RISK
FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...BUT FOR NOW MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MORE THAN A BRIEF 1-2 HR WINDOW FOR SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 40S...AND WITH
ROAD SFCS CARRYING SOME RESIDUAL WARMTH ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...THINK THAT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL BE MINIMAL.
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO PICK UP SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
SPREADING IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT(1-
2" RANGE)...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
SHALLOW TO PUSH OVER INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WILL BE THE WARMEST ON
FRIDAY...WITH KALS SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S...COMPARED TO THE
PLAINS WHICH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. -KT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT MODERATES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AS EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
EVENING...AS LIFT AND MOISTURE WANE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z AND THE
18Z RUNS OF THE NAM CONTINUE TO PRINT OUT QPF ACROSS THE PLAINS WELL
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS COULD BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUE AND HAVE POPS ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS AT TAD ACROSS THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND BACK TO AT AND
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
AHEAD OF EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AS A MINOR SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL TO AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD. COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS MORE ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
KCOS WLL SEE CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH
SNOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THE INTENSITY OF SNOW WILL AT TIMES
RESULT IN IFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. KPUB SHOULD SEE CIGS
LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON KPUB COULD SEE SOME RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPS GET. THEN IN THE
EVENING HOURS AS TEMPS COOL THE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOULD INCREASE
AND CIGS/VSBY COULD LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. KALS IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ081-
082-084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
313 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AT 07Z EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL PLAIN SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS EAST
GEORGIA...CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS
REMAINS DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN
1.00 INCH. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN SHIELD SHRINKING.
LATEST HRRR MODEL CONFIRMS REASONING WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST
OF THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS. WENT WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
AFTER 12Z WITH SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY BUT BREAKS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
MOS TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO TRENDED
WARMER...MID 70S. IT COULD BE WARMER DEPENDING ON INSOLATION AS
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BUT LATEST ECMWF
APPEARS FASTER AND MORE IN LINE WITH GFS/NAM. ALL MOS GUIDANCE
LEANING TO NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY AS LOW MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED.
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY WITH IN-SITU WEDGE
MORE LIKELY NORTH OF COLUMBIA AND WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE CSRA.
WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS CSRA MAY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB AROUND -28C OR LOWER. GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY. TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE W
AND CENT CONUS TUE THRU FRI...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN RESPONSE
OFFSHORE THE SE CONUS. COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR FA
MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST...BUILDING EAST INTO
OUR REGION BY MON NT/TUE. COOL DRY AIR AND APPEARANCE OF WHAT COULD
BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MAY PROVIDE A FROST THREAT
FOR OUR FA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A WARMING TREND FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. COULD
HIT 80 AGAIN BY THU. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTIES IN
PLAY...BUT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO AFFECT OUR
REGION AT SOME POINT LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AGS/DNL WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE AS THE FRONT BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD. AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
INCLUDED VCSH BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AT AGS/DNL THEN MOVING INTO
OGB/CAE/CUB BETWEEN 19/02 AND 19/03Z. WITH SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF
AGS/DNL/OGB EXPECT MIXING TO CONTINUE PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
159 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016/
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THUS FAR TODAY...IT HAS BEEN THE SAME OLE STORY WRT GULF COAST
CONVECTION THIS YEAR WITH MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA BECOMING CUTOFF
AT THE EXPENSE OF GULF DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SPC RAP INDICES SHOWING A VERY SHARP
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. BUT DESPITE VALUES CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG ALONG
OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN BORDER...CONVECTION AS MENTIONED REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THIS GRADIENT AND CANT REALLY GET ANY TRANSPORT NORTH OF
THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. INSTEAD...STARTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE ACTUALLY CAPE ZONE AS OPPOSED TO ACTIVITY
ADVECTING IN BUT MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THUS FAR. WITH
TIME THOUGH...SHOULD SEE THIS SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
AREA AS WELL AND WILL CONTINUE LOW END CHANCE POPS WITH LOW END
THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL.
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AND FEEL GUIDANCE IS
UNDERDOING POPS BASED ON GRIDDED FIELD ANALYSIS IN THE
GFS...NAM12...AND THE ECMWF. HAVE PUSHED POP CHANCES FURTHER NORTH
WHILE ALSO INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTH.
INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY BUILD DURING THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HAVE
LIMITED IT TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN LOCATIONS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIKELY POPS.
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH WARM FRONT
MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE TN/GA BORDER. INSTABILITY SHOULD RAMP
UP AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF
NORTH GEORGIA. GIVEN VICINITY OF THE LOW...SHOULDNT HAVE TO WORRY
ABOUT ANOTHER GULF CUTOFF SCENARIO AND SO WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE
ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST AREAS.
DEESE
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS DIVERGE FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THE
SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WITH GFS FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN ECMWF. DURING
THIS TIME...AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT
LAKES AREA...AGAIN GFS IS FURTHER EAST AND STRONGER THAN
ECMWF...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BETTER POPS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LOW IS ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN FLOW BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN END OF SHORT WAVE ROTATES OVER THE
FORECAST ARE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ANY LOW END POPS WILL BE MAINLY OVER
NORTH GEORGIA. THE WORK WEEK IS PUNCTUATED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO SURPRISINGLY THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT
BY WEEKS END. WILL KEEP LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW.
ATWELL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS AND EXITING PRECIP TO THE
SOUTHEAST...SHOULD LEAVE LINGERING ALTO DECK INTO FRIDAY THEN
GRADUAL LOWERING NEAR 5-7 KFT AFTER 18Z /SOUTHERN SITES TRENDING
LOWER EARLIER/. -SHRA CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z
BUT DELAYED CHANCE NEAR KATL UNTIL AFTER 18Z WITH PROB30 THEN
PREDOMINANT FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER REMAIN NEAR
SOUTHERN SITES FOR AFTERNOON. WINDS NEAR KATL INITIALLY WEST/NW
UNDER 7 KTS SHOULD SWING NE AFTER ABOUT 11Z THIS MORNING THEN STAY
EAST TO ESE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL WINDS MAY BE MORE
VRB FOR SOUTHERN SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SHIFT. EXPECT TREND
TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND POSSIBLY LOWER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON PRECIP CHANCE TIMING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 51 64 43 / 30 60 60 40
ATLANTA 67 54 63 41 / 40 60 60 30
BLAIRSVILLE 65 47 57 37 / 20 60 60 40
CARTERSVILLE 66 51 61 40 / 30 60 60 30
COLUMBUS 70 58 68 44 / 70 70 60 30
GAINESVILLE 66 51 60 41 / 30 60 60 40
MACON 69 57 69 45 / 60 60 60 40
ROME 67 51 59 39 / 30 60 60 30
PEACHTREE CITY 67 52 64 40 / 50 60 60 30
VIDALIA 70 58 72 50 / 60 60 70 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
335 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 TOMORROW. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 DEGREES. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WARM UP BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ACTUALLY
RISE AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW FORMING TO OUR WEST. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES TO OUR NORTH AND WITH GENERAL FRONTOLYSIS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER. WOULDN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE IN OUR N/NE ZONES
BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME AND WILL MAINTAIN
DRY FORECAST. WILL SEE SOME MODEST CAA THIS MORNING THOUGH AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -5C. THIS COUPLED WITH ASSOCIATED
INCREASE IN STRATOCU WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A DIURNAL RECOVERY
TODAY. LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER RAW GUIDANCE AND INHERITED
FORECAST WITH HIGHS MID 40S-LOW 50S...COOLEST NEAR THE LAKE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...EXCEPT IN OUR NORTHEAST
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MID 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
LARGE MID/UPPER LOW WILL THEN WOBBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR CWA NOT
LOOKING GOOD AT ALL. BEST CVA AND DEFORMATION/FGEN SET TO PASS SOUTH
OF OUR CWA WITH 1030MB ONTARIO SURFACE HIGH MAINTAINING SIZABLE
INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA. BEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E ALSO REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH CANADIAN RIDGE ACTUALLY MAINTAINING A
STEADY FEED OF NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL LIKELY BE ON SATURDAY AS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE CLIPPED
WITH SOME MODEST ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK VORTICITY
SHRED. BUT EVEN THEN...CHANCES ARE NOT GREAT DUE TO SHEARING VORT
MAX/WEAK UVV`S AND STUBBORN DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CUT POPS
A BIT FOR SATURDAY BUT DID LEAVE SOME LOW CHANCES GENERALLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF US-30. IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL LIKELY BE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN WET BULB TEMPS LARGELY BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...WARM GROUND AND LIGHT QPF SUGGEST VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. ALSO LOWERED POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS VAST
MAJORITY OF 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THETA-E TROUGH FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
BY THEN WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE QPF.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS LONGWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES DAMPENS EAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHLY MERIDIONAL
NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW -10C. A FEW
LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT CORE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
BYPASSES US TO THE NORTHEAST AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE AWFULLY DRY.
BACKGROUND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME GIVEN
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND KEPT FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO CHANGE DRASTICALLY FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK. DEEP TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WITH DOWNSTREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING WARMER CONDITIONS TO OUR
REGION. MODELS DISPLAYING TYPICAL DISCREPANCIES WITH DETAILS OF
EVOLVING PATTERN. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME LATE IN
THE WEEK BUT TIMING REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY
THIS MORNING. WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH AREA AFTER
DAYBREAK. LOCAL CU RULES SUGGEST BKN CLOUD DECK POSSIBLE WITH
COLDER AIR IN THE NORTH...MAINLY KSBN. LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR HAVE
TRIED TO BRING MVFR CIGS OVER WI INTO KSBN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS FOR NEXT UPDATE. KFWA TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR
JUST SCT TO OCCASIONAL BKN VFR CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
BEHIND FRONT IN THE 10-14KT RANGE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
127 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 826 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IN OUR AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... EXCEPT ONLY IN
THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS TRIMMING OF PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN LWR MI WILL CONTINUE TO PINCH
OFF/FILL AS IT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT SAT/RADAR
TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE BEARISH ON PRECIP COVERAGE NORTH OF US 30
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CU FIELD HAS RAPIDLY EXPANDED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...HI RES GUIDANCE THAT
DOES SHOW SHOWERS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON ARE PLACING THE PRECIP
COVERAGE SOUTH OF US 30...AS VORT RIBBON ON LEFT PERIPHERY OF
DEPARTING UPPER JET TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...APPARENT PER LATEST
W/V SAT LOOP. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF US 30 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXCLUDED MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER POPPING UP WILL BE BETWEEN THE 22Z AND 02Z
TIMEFRAME. ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED POPS NORTH...WITH ONLY A
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS THIS EVENING AND ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...CUT CLOUD COVERAGE CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...ON THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE. REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING BECOMES SPLIT BETWEEN
DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM LOBE OF ELONGATED TROF AND UPPER MIDWEST
LOW CUTTING OFF NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF A LIMA TO
COLDWATER LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
FORECAST PERIOD TO BEGIN WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...SPLINTERING ELONGATED E/W ORIENTED UPPER TROF WITH
REMNANT FORMING CLOSED LOW OVER MID MS VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH ONLY SIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN SW CWA.
PATTERN THEN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND BRINGS MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WITH IT. AFTER A CHILLY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S...TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY.
WARM UP WILL BRING A RETURN FLOW AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS UPPER TROF IS CARVED OUT OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS...RESULTING SW FLOW WILL HAVE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY
THIS MORNING. WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH AREA AFTER
DAYBREAK. LOCAL CU RULES SUGGEST BKN CLOUD DECK POSSIBLE WITH
COLDER AIR IN THE NORTH...MAINLY KSBN. LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR HAVE
TRIED TO BRING MVFR CIGS OVER WI INTO KSBN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS FOR NEXT UPDATE. KFWA TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR
JUST SCT TO OCCASIONAL BKN VFR CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
BEHIND FRONT IN THE 10-14KT RANGE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1259 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT Thu MAR 17 2016
A winter weather advisory for snow was issued for a few
central/west central counties. The Nam appears to be increasingly
supported by the RAP for frontogenetically forced, developing
rapidly snow toward the 3 am to 8 am timeframe. A caveat is the
dry air currently, however there are several hours to go for
saturation to develop. The NAM and RAP indicated in excess of 4
inches, so probability of reaching at least the lower advisory
threshold of 2 inches seems decent this morning despite the warm
ground, and warm temperatures that need to be overcome by dynamic
cooling.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
For tonight, a shortwave trough with moderate to strong surface to
mid level frontogenesis, will move into western Kansas later tonight
with increasing clouds and rain and snow chances. Rain should
develop north of Dodge City around midnight, then spread south
during the morning as a cold front drops southward across Kansas.
Rain then should change to mostly snow after midnight into early
morning, north of a Garden City to Larned line with around an inch
accumulation from near Hays to Wakeeney and Scott City. The snow
should stick mainly on grassy surfaces as a wet snow. South winds
around 10 to 20 mph will shift to the northeast at 15 to 25 mph with
the cold front. Overnight lows will be around 30 north of Dodge City
to the mid 30s south.
For Friday, the shortwave trough and attendant forcing will move
rapidly east in the afternoon with precipitation rapidly winding
down. Rain may mix with snow near Dodge City and west, with mainly
all snow from Garden City to Jetmore and Larned and north in the
morning. Additional snow accumulations could be another inch from
Scott City to Hays and north with lesser amounts elsewhere. Total
snow amounts could be around 2 inches from Scott City to Hays
including Wakeeney. Northeast winds will continue at 15 to 25 mph
with highs only in the upper 30s to around 40. Warmer mid 40s will
be in parts of south central Kansas from Ashland to near Pratt.
.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
For Friday night into Wednesday, a dry period is forecast with a
warming trend. Cool northwest flow aloft will transition to warmer
ridging. Highs warm from around 50 on Saturday, mid to upper 50s
Sunday, mid to upper 70s Monday and Tuesday, then 60s to around 70
on Wednesday. Lows will be cold on Friday night and Saturday night
with only around 18 to 25 degrees. Lows then warm into the 30s
Sunday night, with 40s into Tuesday night.
A cold front moves across Kansas Wednesday night as an upper low is
forecast to approach the region on Thursday. Chances for rain or
snow increase with this upper low. Highs on Thursday fall back into
the 50s with lows in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
Cielings will deteriorate overnight across the area as a sharp
preciptation band develops from northwest into central Kansas, and
persists through the morning hours on Friday. The post frontal
system will bring sustained northeast winds gusting to near 30
knots at times through the early afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 23 49 22 57 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 22 48 19 57 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 23 49 25 62 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 22 51 22 59 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 22 47 21 54 / 10 10 0 0
P28 24 53 24 58 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-
031-044>046-064-065.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Russell
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1101 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON RAP UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA.
THE FIRST IS NEAR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
WITH SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. SEVERAL
WEAK BANDS OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF OUR CWA.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
AT LEAST A LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS COMBINING WITH EAST-NORTHEAST MOIST FLOW NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. POPS/TIMING WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
NOW MENTIONED ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS
STILL INDICATION FROM SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE OF A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CSI WITH NEAR NEUTRAL
THETA E LAPSE RATES WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL MORE
FOCUSED/INTENSE SNOW BANDS TO FORM. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING (OR WHERE) AND I LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE IDEA OF LESS
INSTABILITY/BROADER LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE.
TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS PRECIP WINDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES EASTWARD AND FRONTOGENESIS TRANSITIONS OUT OF OUR CWA.
REGARDING PRECIP TYPE...MOISTURE PROFILES STILL APPEAR TO BE
PROBLEMATIC IN OUR EASTERN CWA...WITH WET BULB SURFACE TEMPS IN THE
33-35F RANGE. THIS COULD MEAN THAT LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST (WHERE THE
STRONGER QPF SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE IS) WOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OR JUST RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON PRECIP OCCURRENCE WITH HIGHS LINGERING NEAR WET BULB
TEMPS UNLESS PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR CLEARING WOULD BE IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS THAT
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MAINLY
SNOW. THE OTHER COMPLICATION WILL BE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
WHICH COULD EAT INTO ANY POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS (BARRING HEAVIER
SNOW RATES). IN ANY CASE IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF OUR CWA SHOULD SEE
1-2" OF SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN NW
KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO...AND LESS IN SW NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TRI STATE
REGION WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST...COINCIDING WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN ROCKIES...THAT WILL SHIFT SURFACE FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO
MORE SOUTHERLY BY 06Z SATURDAY...THUS ENDING UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM 06Z SATURDAY ONWARD WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FOR NEXT MONDAY ON THRU TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH BUILDING H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS IS GOING TO
CREATE DOWNSLOPE MIDLEVEL FLOW THAT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. H5 RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST FAIRLY PROGRESSIVELY BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE PLAINS REGION SEEING A SHORTWAVE AFFECT
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...MOVING ESE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS SHIFTING UPPER
LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THE RESULT WILL BE LESS QPF FOR THE
CWA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
FOR TEMPS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BEHIND
DISSIPATING SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THRU THE DAY. NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS...WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS...ONLY TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BACK TO THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER.
FOR PRECIPITATION...LINGERING -SW ON FRIDAY NIGHT COULD GIVE EASTERN
COLORADO VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUM LESS THAN AN INCH. SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MIDWEEK WILL BRING A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ONLY UP TO A
POTENTIAL 0.10" QPF...INCLUDING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW.
FOR WINDS/RH...POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO INCREASE NEAR
20MPH SATURDAY BUT SHOULD TIL SUNDAY. MONDAY/TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS REACHING 10-20 MPH W/ SOME LOCALES REACHING HIGHER FOR BRIEF
PERIODS...ALONG WITH LOW RH READINGS MONDAY/TUESDAY NEAR 15-20
PERCENT...COULD CREATE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY COULD HAVE AREA SEEING GUSTS NEAR 30+
MPH WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
GLD WILL BE INTERMITTENTLY VFR AND MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH
LIGHT RAIN TURNING TO LIGHT SNOW AFTER 09Z AND DIMINISHING AFTER
14Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO ALL VFR AFTER 19Z WITH HIGHER
SCATTERED CLOUDS AFTER 00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.
MCK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE MAIN
SNOW BAND AND LOWER CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY PASSED SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS TURNING TO SNOW AFTER 09Z MAY BE NOTED...BUT SHOULD BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY 14Z. SCATTERED HIGHER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 23Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1106 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
...Winter Weather Advisory hoisted for a few west central Kansas
counties early this morning Hays/Wakeeney/Dighton/Ness/LaCrosse...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT Thu MAR 17 2016
A winter weather advisory for snow was issued for a few
central/west central counties. The Nam appears to be increasingly
supported by the RAP for frontogenetically forced, developing
rapidly snow toward the 3 am to 8 am timeframe. A caveat is the
dry air currently, however there are several hours to go for
saturation to develop. The NAM and RAP indicated in excess of 4
inches, so probability of reaching at least the lower advisory
threshold of 2 inches seems decent this morning despite the warm
ground, and warm temperatures that need to be overcome by dynamic
cooling.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
For tonight, a shortwave trough with moderate to strong surface to
mid level frontogenesis, will move into western Kansas later tonight
with increasing clouds and rain and snow chances. Rain should
develop north of Dodge City around midnight, then spread south
during the morning as a cold front drops southward across Kansas.
Rain then should change to mostly snow after midnight into early
morning, north of a Garden City to Larned line with around an inch
accumulation from near Hays to Wakeeney and Scott City. The snow
should stick mainly on grassy surfaces as a wet snow. South winds
around 10 to 20 mph will shift to the northeast at 15 to 25 mph with
the cold front. Overnight lows will be around 30 north of Dodge City
to the mid 30s south.
For Friday, the shortwave trough and attendant forcing will move
rapidly east in the afternoon with precipitation rapidly winding
down. Rain may mix with snow near Dodge City and west, with mainly
all snow from Garden City to Jetmore and Larned and north in the
morning. Additional snow accumulations could be another inch from
Scott City to Hays and north with lesser amounts elsewhere. Total
snow amounts could be around 2 inches from Scott City to Hays
including Wakeeney. Northeast winds will continue at 15 to 25 mph
with highs only in the upper 30s to around 40. Warmer mid 40s will
be in parts of south central Kansas from Ashland to near Pratt.
.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
For Friday night into Wednesday, a dry period is forecast with a
warming trend. Cool northwest flow aloft will transition to warmer
ridging. Highs warm from around 50 on Saturday, mid to upper 50s
Sunday, mid to upper 70s Monday and Tuesday, then 60s to around 70
on Wednesday. Lows will be cold on Friday night and Saturday night
with only around 18 to 25 degrees. Lows then warm into the 30s
Sunday night, with 40s into Tuesday night.
A cold front moves across Kansas Wednesday night as an upper low is
forecast to approach the region on Thursday. Chances for rain or
snow increase with this upper low. Highs on Thursday fall back into
the 50s with lows in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
High confidence in deteriorating flying conditions this TAF cycle.
Strong cold front has already cleared HYS, with gusty NE winds and
lowering cigs. Cold front will make rapid progress through all
of SW KS early this evening, with NE wind gusts of 30-35 kts.
Expect cigs to lower overnight, becoming MVFR/IFR by 12z Fri at
DDC/GCK. Highest aviation impacts expected at HYS. Here, cigs will
lower to IFR/MVFR by 06z, with -SN reducing vis to IFR. Visibility
at HYS expected to drop to LIFR at times in the snow, and inserted
a TEMPO group for this 09-12z Friday at HYS. -RASN also expected
to reduce vis at GCK/DDC during the 09-15z timeframe.
After 18z Friday, improvements expected. All precipitation will
end rapidly, cigs will improve, and NE winds will diminish.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 40 23 49 / 30 50 10 0
GCK 32 39 22 48 / 40 50 10 0
EHA 32 39 23 49 / 20 30 20 0
LBL 34 41 22 51 / 20 20 10 0
A winter weaether advossory for snow was issued for a few
central/west central counties. The Nam appera to be increasingly
supported by tghe RAP for frontogenetically forced, developing
rapidly snow toward the 3 adm to 8 amd timeframe. A caveat is the
dry air currently, however there are several hours to go for
saturation to develop. The NAM and RAP indicated in excess of 4
inches, so probability of reaching at least the lower advisory
threshold of 2 inches seems decent this morning despite the warm
ground, and warm temperateus that need to be overcome by dynamic
cooling.
&&
HYS 31 38 22 47 / 70 70 10 10
P28 38 45 24 53 / 20 40 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for KSZ030-031-
044>046-064-065.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Russell
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURED FAIRLY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN THEN TO THE MID ATLANTIC. A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND AN ANTICYLONE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT
850 MB...TEMPERATURES WERE AS COLD AS -10 DEGREES C OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. A DISTURBANCE WAS SPREADING PCPN
EASTWARD FROM COLORADO ACROSS KANSAS...WHICH WILL ALSO AFFECT
PARTS OF MISSOURI. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THAT SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH BASED ON RECENT RAP AND HRRR FCSTS. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE
SINKING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA...SO HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
TONIGHT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL 850-500 MB MOISTURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD INITIALLY
BE WEAK...BUT 700 MB OMEGA VALUES INCREASE ON SATURDAY. QPF VALUES
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW APPEAR
POSSIBLE. PCPN TYPE COULD BE MOSTLY SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BASED ON WET BULB TEMPERATURES FROM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 40 NORTH AND LOWER
TO MID 40S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH POOR MIXING DUE TO
GENERALLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
MILDER AIR BACK IN FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...
SHOWING A 500 MB RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THAT RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
EASTWARD...BUT FLATTENS AS IS DOES SO THROUGH MONDAY. BY THAT
TIME...A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS.
GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AN GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE MID AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE BULK OF PCPN TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. FRONTOGENETIC
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AND TRACK SE
OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING INDICATED VERY DEEP MIXING TODAY...WITH
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (ESSENTIALLY DRY ADIABATIC) AS HIGH AS
12KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE. DECOUPLING AFTER 00Z HAS QUICKLY SET
IN...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KNOTS...AND A QUICK DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. THERE IS AN OBVIOUS WSW-TO-ENE BOUNDARY ON KILN
RADAR...NOW APPROACHING THE WILMINGTON AREA. WINDS BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY HAVE SHIFTED (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) TO THE NORTHWEST.
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED...AS THEY HAVE BEEN
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH NOTHING TO SHOW FOR IT ON ANY OF THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. VIRGA (WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
REACHING THE GROUND) WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...THOUGH RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND VIRGA COMING IN LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
EITHER WAY...AT THIS POINT...IT IS ESSENTIALLY A ZERO-IMPACT
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ROUGHLY ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...ALLOWING FOR A BIGGER DROP THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH
MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR THE ILN CWA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW TO OPEN UP AND DROP
SE THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP MIXING HAS LED TO GUSTY
WINDS AND DRIER AIR. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH...ALONG WITH RH
VALUES RH VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT. THESE VALUES ALONG WITH 10
HOUR FUEL VALUES OF 5 TO 7 PERCENT HAS PLACED THE REGION IN RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING THRU 8
PM...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND RH VALUES START TO
COME UP.
DIURNAL CU FIELD EVIDENT ON SATL IMGRY...THICKEST OVER THE EAST...
WHERE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED. THESE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. AFTER THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS FROM THE
MID 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE LEFT OVER PV WILL START TO CLOSE
OFF AND FORM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER IOWA. GLOBAL MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE HERE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER FORECASTED AT THE SURFACE. AS OF CURRENT
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN PROGRESSING THE LOW TO QUICKLY
TO THE EAST WHILE THE NAM AND EURO HOLD THE LOW BACK FOR SLIGHTLY
LONGER. GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN THAT IS INITIALLY FORECASTED TO
SET UP HAVE TRENDED THE GRIDS TO THE SLOWER EURO/ NAM SOLUTION.
FOR FRIDAY AM EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
CONDITIONS AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO
DECREASE. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FORECASTED. HAVE
ALSO CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCE OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTH. HAVE EXPANDED
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA GIVEN THE UPPER LOW EVEN
THOUGH MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE (PWATS AROUND 0.40").
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS REMAINED HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GENERAL SOLUTION APPEARS FOR MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES FOR SATURDAY WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WITH ALL SNOW AND ALL RAIN AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL DICTATE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM. THIS REGIME WILL
FEATURE LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE PERIOD ALLOWING A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FOR SUNDAY...A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE ILN AREA. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES MONDAY WHEN THE LOW WILL BE TRACKING TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.
PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION ON TUESDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE MOVING EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTH NEAR A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ALIGNED ALONG A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. A
COLD FRONT SAGGING TOWARD THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THAT
SCENARIO DUE TO MODEL TIMING INCONSISTENCY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S. WARM ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BOOST READINGS TO NEAR NORMAL 50S ON TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE
60S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY
EXPECT JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALTHOUGH A FEW LOWER VFR
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE THE HIGHEST AT KCMH AND KLCK AND THE LIGHTEST AT KCVG AND KLUK.
HAVE WIND GUSTS IN ALL OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KCVG AND KLUK.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WENT WITH
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH HOLDS PRECIPTIATION OFF UNTIL SATURDAY
AND THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION IN AT THE LONGER
KCVG TAF.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SOME IFR VISIBILITIES MAY
BE POSSIBLE IF PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AT MOST TAF SITES. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. CHANCES TOO LOW IN SOME PLACES AND/OR SOME
TIMES FOR MENTION IN TAF. HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS IN
SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/
UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AS WELL AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS WELL.
DISCUSSION...
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN
HAZARD ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
4 AM TO NOON ON FRIDAY.
BEFORE 4 AM TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ON THE 850 MB FRONT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW STRONG OR SEVERE LIMITS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET
AND AFFECT MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A MANGUM TO PAULS VALLEY TO
DURANT LINE. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THESE
STORMS FORMING JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DUE TO
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MUCAPE 500-2000 J/KG AND STRONG
SHEAR...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 45-55 KT...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AND
MULTICELLS WOULD RESULT SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. SOME HAILSTONES MAY BE
NEAR THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. A FEW REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS OF 60
TO 70 MPH COULD OCCUR AS WELL...BUT IS LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. NO TORNADOES ARE
EXPECTED. STORMS MAY FIRST FORM NEAR THE ALTUS...HOBART...LAWTON...
OR FREDERICK AREAS IN THE 4 TO 7 AM TIME FRAME THEN MOVE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST...PERHAPS ORGANIZING INTO A CLUSTER OR LINE. NOT
EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT...BUT SOME REPORTS OF HAIL AND
WIND ARE POSSIBLE. MOST STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA
CITY METRO AREA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY AND COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALL DURING THE
DAY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY FORM BEHIND THE THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/
DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT SOME
SITES. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH BEST CHANCE BEING FRIDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HI RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE RED RIVER TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY SATURDAY AS DRY COOLER AIR FILLS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING MAY SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN MONDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S AND 70S. LEANED TOWARD MOS GUIDANCE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOK TO HAVE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AS GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH THE
DRY AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 46 53 33 56 / 20 40 10 0
HOBART OK 44 52 31 57 / 40 40 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 49 59 37 58 / 40 70 10 0
GAGE OK 36 47 25 55 / 20 30 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 40 50 28 55 / 10 50 10 0
DURANT OK 52 62 40 58 / 20 70 40 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ004>020.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/25/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
345 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...
IR SATELLITE AND REGIONAL METARS AT 2 AM CLEARLY SHOWED THE COLD
FRONT HAD CLEARED MOST OF THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF STOUT
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 43 MPH IN DALHART. HRRR AND RAP
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FRONT WHICH SHOULD CLEAR LUBBOCK
BETWEEN 5 AM AND 6 AM. OF GREATER INTEREST IS THE RECENT
BLOSSOMING OF LOW CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS STRATUS IS TIED TO A ZONAL
LL MOISTURE AXIS IN ERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT WHERE
THIS AXIS INTERSECTS THE FRONT. UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF FAVORABLE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THIS MOISTURE IS ALREADY BREEDING
ELEVATED CAPE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS OF 500-1000 J/KG PER THE RUC
MESOANALYSIS. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER...RICHER GULF MOISTURE
CURLING ISENTROPICALLY N-NEWD FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR /AIDED BY A
VEERING LLJ/ WILL ONLY IMPROVE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
FROM THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK... ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
4 AND 7 AM. BOOSTED PRE-7 AM POPS TO 50 PERCENT IN CHILDRESS
COUNTY BEFORE TAPERING THESE BACK THEREAFTER AS AMPLE W-NW
STEERING WINDS CARRY THIS CONVECTION FARTHER DOWN THE RED RIVER.
KEPT LOW T-STORM CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TO CLEAR THESE AREAS...THOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR NEXT TO NIL AS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER AIR WEDGES SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON BRISK NELY WINDS.
UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES...POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS STILL
FAVORED TO EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. RAP
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SATURATION AT TIMES FOR SOME
DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-27...SO MENTION OF DRIZZLE WAS
INSERTED FOR THIS FAVORABLY MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. OTHERWISE...
STRATUS IS FAVORED TO THIN AND ERODE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON IN
CONTRAST TO THE NAM WHICH KEEPS LOW CLOUDS INTACT THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PROVIDED THIS CLEARING OCCURS... THE SETUP SHOULD BE MORE
THAN FAVORABLE FOR WELL-BELOW NORMAL LOWS AREA WIDE AS WINDS TREND
LIGHT WITHIN THE CENTER OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE. NUDGED THE
INHERITED LOW TEMPS EVEN LOWER TONIGHT GIVEN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL AND AN OVERALL LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE SINCE LATE FEBRUARY...OUR OFFICE DOES NOT ISSUE
SPRING FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL WE ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LAST
FREEZE DATES WHICH IN THIS CASE ARE STILL SEVERAL WEEKS OUT FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COOL DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY THANKS TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY...EVEN WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
BACK TO ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START
A SLOW WARM UP FOR SUNDAY BEFORE GOING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE DRYLINE PUSHING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND
KICKS IN. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WIND SPEEDS ARE...BUT DRY AIR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINIMUM
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS PRETTY UNCERTAIN IN THE MODELS WITH
THE GFS TRYING TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC KEEP DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES ARE IN STORE FOR THE
VERY END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS THE GFS SWINGS THE CENTER OF A
CLOSED LOW STRAIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH THAT MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER THAN THE GFS. TIMING DIFFERENCES
IMPACT ALL SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS BUT ESPECIALLY POPS...
SUPERBLEND IS INCREASING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE GFS HAS SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND THE GFS IN
COVERAGE...AMOUNTS...AND TIMING...WILL DROP SUPERBLEND POPS QUITE
A BIT TO TAKE THE ECMWF TIMING INTO ACCOUNT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE IMPACTED AS THE GFS DRIVES A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOWER WIND
SPEEDS AND AN AIRMASS NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER THAN THE MIDDLE PART
BUT HOW COOL REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH TIME FOR THE
SYSTEM AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
908 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
BAND OF SNOW IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PUEBLO AREA...WHILE
SNOW UPSTREAM HAS LIGHTENED UP CONSIDERABLY AS FORCING FROM THE
UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING EASTWARD. REVISED POP GRIDS TO CAPTURE THE
BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES.
AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES WITH
THIS BAND. HRRR SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH KEEPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
...WINTER RETURNS FOR A DAY FOR PARTS OF THE PLAINS...
CURRENTLY...
AT 3 AM...EAST-WEST BAND OF SNOW...MDT IN INTENSITY PER RADAR...WERE
LOCATED ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY. LIGHTER SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS THE
REST OF EL PASO COUNTY...AND SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED INTO N
PUEBLO COUNTY AS VERY LIGHT SNOW WAS NOTED OUTSIDE THE WX OFFICE
HERE IN PUEBLO. SNOW ALSO NOTED IN TELLER COUNTY PER RADAR AND
WEBCAMS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS...A LOW OVC DECK WAS
NOTED. INTERIOR MTNS AND VALLEYS FOR THE MOST PART WERE
DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS LIKELY SOME SNOW FALLING AT HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OVER THE C MTNS PER RADAR.
A 2NDRY COLD FRONT WAS APPARENT IN THE RADAR DATA AND IT EXTENDED
FROM DEN TO LIC AND THEN INTO KIOWA COUNTY. IT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME.
TODAY...
MOST SNOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE WILL FALL ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION.
TOWARDS SUNRISE EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR E
PLAINS...AND THE SNOW IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY
START TO DROP SOUTH AS THE 2NDRY FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE S MTNS.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WILL BE DURING THE MID
MORNING TIME PERIOD. BY THIS AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE FROM THE PALMER DVD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS WALSENBURG...AND THIS IS WHERE I DREW UP THE
GREATEST POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH N EL PASO COUNTY CAREFULLY AS BANDING PRECIP
HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IF THESE BANDS
PERSIST...THEN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD
LOCALLY REACH INTO WARNING CRITERIA.
THE PLAINS WILL BE OVC THE ENTIRE DAY AND IT WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN N
EL PASO COUNTY.
OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS AND VALLEYS...IT SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY.
TONIGHT...
BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS
INTERFACE...WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE L20S
MOST PLAINS WITH SOME TEENS IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEENS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS/MTNS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
...HIGH FIRE DANGER EARLY NEXT WEEK...MORE SNOW AND COLD POSSIBLE
LATER...
THE SPRING WEATHER-COASTER IS HERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL STILL BE COLD WITH EVEN A FEW
SPOTTY FLURRIES NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLY...BUT THEN A NICE WARMING
TREND SETS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE
AGAIN.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE GRIPS OF
ANOTHER WINDY AND DRY PERIOD. THE CURRENT SNOWFALL MAY HAVE SOME
IMPACT IN DETERRING THE FIRE DANGER IN PARTS OF THE AREA...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND HOW MUCH IS LEFT BY THE TIME MONDAY ROLLS
AROUND. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT ANY POSITIVE IMPACT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED AS SHORT TURN AROUND FUELS LIKE DEAD GRASSES TEND TO DRY OUT
VERY QUICKLY...MINIMIZING THE TEMPORARY WETTING EFFECT OF THE
SNOWFALL. SO...LIKELY DEALING WITH FIRE CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN UP THE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS A BIT WHERE THE SNOW IS
ABSENT. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT THEY BECOME
QUITE STRONG ON TUESDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DAY OF EXTREME
FIRE DANGER. FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THEY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...WHILE HIGH FIRE DANGER
IMPACTS MOST AREAS...WIND-DRIVEN SNOW WILL START MOVING BACK INTO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MAKES ITS WAY EAST FROM THE PACIFIC.
WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE WEATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY...BUT THE REPRIEVE LOOKS SHORT-LIVED. THE DAY LOOKS TO
START OUT WITH JUST A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. BUT...BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM
STARTS DIGGING INTO NEW MEXICO...WITH PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW
AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN...DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES WIDESPREAD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW. THE SNOW THEN LINGERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH TIME OUT OF THE STATE.
HARD TO SAY WHAT THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKE AT THIS DISTANT
RANGE...BUT IT HAS POTENTIAL. THE STORM...ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK...WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. BUT AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL.
PATTERN APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE MUCH MORE ACTIVE FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE MONTH THAN IT WAS FOR THE FIRST. FINGERS CROSSED. NO ONE
WANTS AN EARLY FIRE SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
KCOS...PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SNOW/BR. PERIODS OF LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY HEAVIER SNOWFALL.
KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT 10 UTC...BUT CIGS EXPECTED TO
LOWER TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH SN- DEVELOPING. EXPECT MAIN MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURNING
TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT DUE TO CIGS/SN-. WE MAY SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TOWARDS SUNRISE SATURDAY.
KALS WILL SEE VFR NEXT 24H.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ081-
082-084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
951 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
TODAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LACKING ON MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION...UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY...IF THEN. THE 06Z GFS HARDLY PRODUCED ANY PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE HRRR MODEL HAS JUST BEEN SHOWING
CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LOW DBZ SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTH. HAVE TRIMMED BACK DAYTIME POPS...CONFINING CHANCE VALUES TO
VOLUSIA AND NORTH LAKE COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...HIGHER MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS AN IMPULSE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH. ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD FAVOR THE EVENING PERIOD WHEN SOME
DAYTIME HEATING BOUNDARIES WERE STILL LINGERING...BUT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY CONTINUE THUNDER CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. MOS HAS BEEN CARRYING HIGHER POPS
DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SO WILL NOT CHANGE OUR
CURRENT FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWED THAT TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY VFR EVERYWHERE AND DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MVFR SHOULD BE
KLEE-KDAB AFTER 18Z AND POSSIBLY EVEN AS LATE AS 21-22Z. THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LOW SHOWER CHANCES AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED STORMS...BUT CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
ACTUALLY GO UP TONIGHT AND A THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LINGER...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KMCO-KTIX.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT HOLDING ON...10 KNOTS OR
LESS INT THE NORTH AND 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AND FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY PICKING UP TO 10-15 KNOTS LATE. SEAS 3-4 FEET
WILL PRIMARILY BE DUE TO A LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL AT 13-15
SECONDS.
THE PRIMARY THREAT TO MARINERS WILL BE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
PUSHING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF
STREAM.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
652 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AT 07Z EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL PLAIN SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS EAST
GEORGIA...CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS
REMAINS DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN
1.00 INCH. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN SHIELD SHRINKING.
LATEST HRRR MODEL CONFIRMS REASONING WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST
OF THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS. WENT WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
AFTER 12Z WITH SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY BUT BREAKS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
MOS TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO TRENDED
WARMER...MID 70S. IT COULD BE WARMER DEPENDING ON INSOLATION AS
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BUT LATEST ECMWF
APPEARS FASTER AND MORE IN LINE WITH GFS/NAM. ALL MOS GUIDANCE
LEANING TO NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY AS LOW MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED.
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY WITH IN-SITU WEDGE
MORE LIKELY NORTH OF COLUMBIA AND WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE CSRA.
WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS CSRA MAY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB AROUND -28C OR LOWER. GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY. TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE W
AND CENT CONUS TUE THRU FRI...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN RESPONSE
OFFSHORE THE SE CONUS. COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR FA
MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST...BUILDING EAST INTO
OUR REGION BY MON NT/TUE. COOL DRY AIR AND APPEARANCE OF WHAT COULD
BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MAY PROVIDE A FROST THREAT
FOR OUR FA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A WARMING TREND FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. COULD
HIT 80 AGAIN BY THU. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTIES IN
PLAY...BUT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO AFFECT OUR
REGION AT SOME POINT LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
MOVING IN LATE.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MOVING
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WHEN RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. HAVE REMAINED WITH
VCSH BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AT AGS/DNL THEN MOVING INTO
OGB/CAE/CUB BETWEEN 19/02 AND 19/03Z. RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING INTO
AGS/DNL AROUND 19/06Z AND SPREADING INTO CAE/CUB AROUND 19/08Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1029 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TODAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT
MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
--1025AM UPDATE-- MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP TIMING AS BAND OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TURN INCREASINGLY TO LIQUID AS THEY MOVE
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE 40S. INSTABILITY IS ON THE INCREASE WITH EVIDENCE FROM MWN
TEMPS NOW FALLING THROUGH THE MID TEENS AND SURFACE TEMPS AT PSM
NEARING 50F. LATEST HRRR PROFILES SHOW LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS
SURFACE-6KFT LAYER THAT ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS ONE DAY
PREVIOUS...SO HAVE TONED DOWN THUNDER WORDING JUST A TAD...BUT
HAVE KEPT IT IN AT THIS TIME. TEMPS LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH VERY
FEW CHANGES NEEDED HERE.
--826AM UPDATE-- HAVE TRENDED SNOWFALL DOWN JUST A TAD OVER
NORTHERN AREAS BASED ON REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS RAIN
/SEE HIE/. WEBCAM IN JACKMAN MAINE DOES REVEAL A COATING OF
SNOW...AND EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO EVENTUALLY OCCUR FOR MOST
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS FROM
TOPSHAM THROUGH WISCASSET SHOULD THIN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...WITH
SPS ONGOING THROUGH 13Z LOOKING GOOD. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HAVE ISSUED SPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AS PATCHY DENSE FOG
CONTINUES ALONG THE MIDCOAST REGION AND PORTIONS OF ANDROSCOGGIN
COUNTY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH SOME
LIMITED CAPE IN THE SOUNDING OVER SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN
THIS REGION DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS SIMILAR TO WFO
BOX GRIDS. THIS TIMING IS ALSO IN STEP WITH LATEST SUITE OF
MESOSCALE MODELS. WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SMALL HAIL...NOT
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY...BUT THERE IS THAT POSSIBILITY
WITH CONTINUING LOW FREEZING LEVELS.
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY
WITH READINGS NEAR FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING AS ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINISHES
AROUND SUNSET AS IT MOVES OFF THE COASTLINE. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE AS READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
NORTH.
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. IT WILL FEEL MORE WINTERLIKE WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS IS POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST
STORM. WHILE THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM
WILL DEVELOP...THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST WITH ITS TRACK THAT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD STAY OFFSHORE. THE 00Z GFS IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW
RESEMBLES THE GFS SOLUTION. THE 00Z GGEM AND NAM HAVE COME IN
LOOKING SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF...FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER. THE
DIFERENCE`S IN TRACK APPEAR TO REVOLVE AROUND THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS AND NOW ECMWF ARE SLOWER IN
CAPTURING THE SURFACE LOW AND THEREFORE ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS
TRACK. THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAPTURE THE
SURFACE LOW QUICKER RESULTING IN A FURTHER WEST TRACK. GIVEN THAT
THIS EVENT WON`T UNFOLD UNTIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WE CHOOSE TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS WILL BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH A COUPLE MORE
TIMES BEFORE LOCKING INTO A SOLUTION.
HAVING SAID THIS...PEOPLE TRAVELING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS AS THIS STORM HAS HIGH
IMPACT POTENTIAL. CIPS ANALOG PAGES SHOW SOME EVENTS SIMILAR TO
THIS THAT HAVE YIELDED DOUBLE DIGIT SNOW. WHILE THIS IS A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO...IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND LOCAL EM DSS SLIDE.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE MIDWEEK AS AN EAST
COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MIDCOAST REGION NEAR IWI.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL RAISE THE FLAGS AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THANKS FOR
THE COLLABORATION.
LONG TERM...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA LEVELS AND POSSIBLY
GALES DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
EAST.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LULOFS
AVIATION...CANNON
MARINE...CANNON/LULOFS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
644 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURED FAIRLY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN THEN TO THE MID ATLANTIC. A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND AN ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT
850 MB...TEMPERATURES WERE AS COLD AS -10 DEGREES C OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. A DISTURBANCE WAS SPREADING PCPN
EASTWARD FROM COLORADO ACROSS KANSAS...WHICH WILL ALSO AFFECT
PARTS OF MISSOURI. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THAT SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH BASED ON RECENT RAP AND HRRR FCSTS. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE
SINKING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA...SO HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
TONIGHT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL 850-500 MB MOISTURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD INITIALLY
BE WEAK...BUT 700 MB OMEGA VALUES INCREASE ON SATURDAY. QPF VALUES
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW APPEAR
POSSIBLE. PCPN TYPE COULD BE MOSTLY SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BASED ON WET BULB TEMPERATURES FROM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 40 NORTH AND LOWER
TO MID 40S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH POOR MIXING DUE TO
GENERALLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
MILDER AIR BACK IN FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...
SHOWING A 500 MB RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THAT RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
EASTWARD...BUT FLATTENS AS IS DOES SO THROUGH MONDAY. BY THAT
TIME...A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS.
GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AN GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE MID AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE BULK OF PCPN TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SITES THROUGH THE MORNING
AS A SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI BUT THESE SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
631 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY. A DRY BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
MONDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 630 AM FRI...FAIRLY DENSE CIRRUS DECK STREAMING THROUGH E
NC EARLY THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NC AND
SHOULD MOVE OFF NC COAST THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY. BACK DOOR COOL FRONT HAS ALL BUT PASSED THROUGH THE
AREA...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CRYSTAL COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOW TD`S.
LL THICKNESS VALS ON PAR WITH WARMER MOS GUID IN MOST AREAS
REACHING THE LOW/MID 70S. NE WINDS OVER THE OBX AND SOUND COUNTIES
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S HERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...HAVE INC LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT AS
MODELS ARE FASTER WITH BRINGING IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAK
OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND FAR SRN ZONES AS
MODEL GUID HAS SPED UP WITH APPROACHING LOW PRES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM FRI... LOW PRES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...OOZ MDLS ARE NOW MORE SIMILAR WITH
TIMING/TRACK OF LOW PRES CROSSING AREA. LOOKS A BIT FASTER NOW
WITH MAIN IMPACTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO
INCREASE IN CVRG THRU THE DAY SAT AND HAVE POPS LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING RANGING FROM LIKELY INLAND TO CAT COAST AS LOW
TRACKS RIGHT NEAR CST. THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE LATER
SAT NIGHT AND SHLD SEE RAIN BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HIGHS
SAT WILL RANGE FROM UPR 50S NW/N WHERE NE FLOW EXPECTED TO 60S
FURTHER S AND E WHERE SOME ONSHORE WINDS LIKELY. LOWS SAT NIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S WELL INLAND UPR 40S/LOWER 50S
BEACHES.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE
WITH DEPARTING LOW SUNDAY HOWEVER UPR TRF IS STILL APPROACHING SO
WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER RAINFALL WILL
NOT BE VERY HEAVY SUNDAY. AS THE UPR TRF CROSSES SUN NIGHT
LINGERING RAIN SHLD END FROM W TO E. MUCH COOLER THIS PERIOD WITH
MAINLY NW WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW...HIGHS SUN IN THE 50S WITH
LOWS SUN NIGHT 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S BEACHES.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER TO BEGIN THE WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND TO
AROUND 40 BEACHES MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF FROST INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL WARM UP MID
WEEK AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND SLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S RETURNING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRI...WIDESPREAD CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT THOUGH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION. THESE HIGHER
CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD LIMIT
FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NE TODAY
THEN LIGHT/VAR TONIGHT. CLOUDS INC OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT LOW.
LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB VFR DEVELOPING SAT AND
CONT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES TRACKS NE NEAR CST WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CIGS. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS HOWEVER SOME LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER ESPCLY
THRU SUN EVENING. VFR EXPECTED MON THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM FRI...UPDATE TO ISSUE SCA FOR PAMLICO AND SOUTHERN
WATERS AS NE SURGE IS MODERATELY STRONG WITH GUSTS B/T 25-30 KT
CURRENTLY. HRRR DOING A GOOD JOB CAPTURING THE SURGE AND BASED
MORNING FCST ON THIS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LONG PERIOD (14-16 SEC) SWELL CONTINUES TO
BE THE DOMINANT PERIOD THIS MORNING WITH SEAS 3-5 FT CONTINUING.
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE E NC WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS 15-25 KT OCCURRING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS AS SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SURGE IN
WINDS SUPERIMPOSED ON THE CONTINUED LONG PERIOD NE SWELL ENERGY.
OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL AFFLICT REST OF THE OUTER WATERS THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH DURATION TO ISSUE SCA ATTM. THE NE SURGE WILL PEAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN VEER MORE EASTERLY AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AND BECOME LIGHT/VBL TONIGHT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT.
LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM FRI...LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE ALONG CST
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT THEN DEPART TO THE NE SLOWLY SUN INTO MON.
WITH LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR CNTRL/SRN WTRS WIND DIR WILL BE
TRICKY LATER SAT AND SAT EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME SIGNIF DIR
CHANGES. FOR NOW SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS THRU SAT WITH
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. AS LOW DEPARTS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WIND DIR WILL
BECOME MORE N TO NW AND INCREASE A BIT TO 15 TO 25 KTS. THESEWINDS
WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT OR SO SEAS MAINLY SUNDAY OVER CNTRL/NRN
WTRS. WNW WINDS REMAIN GUSTY IN WAKE OF LOW MON AS HIGH PRES
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W...SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 6 FT OVER
OUTER WATERS THRU MON. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUE AS HIGH
BUILDS OVER...WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO
2 TO 3 FEET.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF/SK
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1039 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT WITH AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE LIKELY ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BLANKETS ALL OF THE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER...WHERE THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE...DUAL-LAYERED STRATOCU DECK WAS
PRESSING SOUTH AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT.
DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD YIELD
INCREASING CU AND THE CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTN...MAINLY
ACROSS NRN PENN.
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTN...BUT LG SCALE FORCING AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB QVEC CONV
FIELDS IS VERY WEAK. THE BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE NORTHERN MTNS. LATEST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE BASICALLY DRY FOR QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH SHOWERS INDICATED TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE RT 6 CORRIDOR
IN NRN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
REMOVE ALL POPS FROM THE FCST...GIVEN THE FACT THAT SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE 88D LOOP /WHERE THE HRRR IS TOTALLY
DRY ATTM/. SO...WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT SCHC POPS /15-20
PERCENT/ ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 30 POPS OVER
THE NORTH
EXPECT A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS BY MIDDAY...AS STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT READILY MIX TO THE SFC WITHIN THE DEEPENING BLYR. BUKFIT
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR SUPPORT WGUSTS DURING THE AFTN OF 30-35KTS.
GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE L40S OVR THE NW
MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS
INTO PA TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS THE LOWEST IN SOME TIME...RANGING
FROM THE L20S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE L30S IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS NOSING INTO PA
SHOULD ENSURE A DRY SATURDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...BULK
OF GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS A BIT OF LGT SNOW/RAIN WILL WORK INTO
THE S TIER COUNTIES BY AFTN ASSOC WITH DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVR THE
S APPALACHIANS. BLENDED QPF SUGGESTS A LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IS POSS
OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET/BEDFORD CO BY EVENING...WITH
LITTLE CHC OF MEASURABLE ACCUM ELSEWHERE.
EARLY SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY SHOULD FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS
/ESP SOUTH/ WITH MAX TEMPS MID 30S-M40S OR -5 TO -10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON BEHIND US...THE
COMPLACENCY OF A RATHER MILD WINTER MAY HAVE SET IN WITH AN TASTE
OF LATE-SPRING WARMTH/60-70+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES ALREADY OBSERVED
IN MOST PLACES ACROSS PA. BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOTHER NATURE MAY BE
REMINDING US OF THE HIGHLY VOLATILE TEMPERATURE AND SENSIBLE
WEATHER SWINGS THAT SPRINGTIME CAN DELIVER.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING TOWARD A MEAN
TROUGH IN THE EAST THAT WILL SUPPORT A STRONGLY DEEPENING SFC LOW
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS. BULK OF 00Z FRIDAY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ONE PIECE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST WILL BREAK OFF AND
LIFT THRU PA SAT EVENING...PRODUCING THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
WILL THREATEN PRIMARILY SE PA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. GEFS PLUMES SHOWING WIDELY VARYING AMTS BASED ON EXACT
SFC LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...WARNING TYPE AMTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
APPEAR UNLIKELY BASED ON 00Z GEFS PROBS AS WELL AS THE LATEST OPER
ECMWF/CANADIAN RUNS.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WHILE NARROWING TO A CERTAIN
DEGREE...STILL RESULT IN A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CONFIDENCE/RISK
HAS INCREASED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN AN INCREASE IN POPS
TO LKLY OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION IS HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE MODELS...THE FCST DETAILS
REMAIN VERY IN QUESTION WITH COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS (TEMPS/PTYPES) AND ELEVATION
DEPENDENCY WITH SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F
/ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/...NOT TO MENTION TIMING DIFFERENCES.
THE STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS/WARM
GROUND TEMPS GIVEN THE RECENT MILD SPELL MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GRASS AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THUS
MITIGATING IMPACTS TO SOME EXTENT. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE-SEASON
SNOW EVENTS IN CENTRAL PA. OVERALL WE HAVE STARTED TO HEDGE THE
FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE SNOW VS. RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ODDS
OF ACCUMULATION TRENDING HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND BRISK/GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
LOW (NOR`EASTER?) AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE MARITIMES... WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LKLY OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE NICELY INTO THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SW
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC. DRY WX MON NGT-TUE IS FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES
LATER TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
PA...WITH AREA OF THICKER MID CLOUDS BEGINNING TO WORK ACROSS THE
NY BORDER AT SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BRING SCT DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS. THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND KBFD /WITH
SHORT-LIVED LOCAL REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE THERE - BUT PROB LOW ENOUGH
TO NOT MENTION IN TAF/. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKIES FILLING WITH CU
ELSEWHERE. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WINDS PICKING UP...AS GUSTS RANGE
FROM 15-25 MPH IN MOST PLACES...AND EVEN HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
LIKELY AT KJST- KMDT.
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH QUICKLY WANE. MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT
VFR CONTINUES ELSEWHERE. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH...BUT SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS SPREAD SW-NE ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT SNOW
BECOMES LIKELY SW LATE.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING /ESP SOUTH AND EAST / WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS.
MON...QUITE BREEZY. RESTRICTIONS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR TO BRIEF MVFR ELSEWHERE.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW MTNS. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH PA FIRE MANAGERS THE ASSESSMENT IS THAT
FUELS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST AFTER RECENT RAINS AND WILL TAKE
SEVERAL DAY TO DRY OUT. THUS...NO RED FLAG ISSUANCE IS PLANNED AT
THIS TIME. AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY AND FAST SPREAD IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW RH...BUT NOT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
652 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.AVIATION...
TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM LOW CIGS AT LBB WILL SOON GIVE WAY TO IFR
CIGS IN SIMILAR FASHION TO PVW. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY FALL TO LIFR
AT THESE SITES BEFORE 15Z...BUT STRONGER AND DRIER NE WINDS BY
MID-MORNING WILL LIKELY PREVENT THIS AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
STRATUS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
CDS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN SUB-VFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR THIS EVENING. THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPING NEAR CDS REMAINS INTACT THIS
MORNING...BUT LIKELIHOOD OF A DIRECT IMPACT IS LOWER THAN
AREAS FARTHER EAST SO HAVE REMOVED THE EARLIER TS MENTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/
SHORT TERM...
IR SATELLITE AND REGIONAL METARS AT 2 AM CLEARLY SHOWED THE COLD
FRONT HAD CLEARED MOST OF THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF STOUT
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 43 MPH IN DALHART. HRRR AND RAP
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FRONT WHICH SHOULD CLEAR LUBBOCK
BETWEEN 5 AM AND 6 AM. OF GREATER INTEREST IS THE RECENT
BLOSSOMING OF LOW CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS STRATUS IS TIED TO A ZONAL
LL MOISTURE AXIS IN ERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT WHERE
THIS AXIS INTERSECTS THE FRONT. UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF FAVORABLE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THIS MOISTURE IS ALREADY BREEDING
ELEVATED CAPE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS OF 500-1000 J/KG PER THE RUC
MESOANALYSIS. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER...RICHER GULF MOISTURE
CURLING ISENTROPICALLY N-NEWD FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR /AIDED BY A
VEERING LLJ/ WILL ONLY IMPROVE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
FROM THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK... ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
4 AND 7 AM. BOOSTED PRE-7 AM POPS TO 50 PERCENT IN CHILDRESS
COUNTY BEFORE TAPERING THESE BACK THEREAFTER AS AMPLE W-NW
STEERING WINDS CARRY THIS CONVECTION FARTHER DOWN THE RED RIVER.
KEPT LOW T-STORM CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TO CLEAR THESE AREAS...THOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR NEXT TO NIL AS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER AIR WEDGES SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON BRISK NELY WINDS.
UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES...POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS STILL
FAVORED TO EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. RAP
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SATURATION AT TIMES FOR SOME
DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-27...SO MENTION OF DRIZZLE WAS
INSERTED FOR THIS FAVORABLY MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. OTHERWISE...
STRATUS IS FAVORED TO THIN AND ERODE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON IN
CONTRAST TO THE NAM WHICH KEEPS LOW CLOUDS INTACT THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PROVIDED THIS CLEARING OCCURS... THE SETUP SHOULD BE MORE
THAN FAVORABLE FOR WELL-BELOW NORMAL LOWS AREA WIDE AS WINDS TREND
LIGHT WITHIN THE CENTER OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE. NUDGED THE
INHERITED LOW TEMPS EVEN LOWER TONIGHT GIVEN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL AND AN OVERALL LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE SINCE LATE FEBRUARY...OUR OFFICE DOES NOT ISSUE
SPRING FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL WE ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LAST
FREEZE DATES WHICH IN THIS CASE ARE STILL SEVERAL WEEKS OUT FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COOL DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY THANKS TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY...EVEN WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
BACK TO ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START
A SLOW WARM UP FOR SUNDAY BEFORE GOING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE DRYLINE PUSHING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND
KICKS IN. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WIND SPEEDS ARE...BUT DRY AIR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINIMUM
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS PRETTY UNCERTAIN IN THE MODELS WITH
THE GFS TRYING TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC KEEP DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES ARE IN STORE FOR THE
VERY END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS THE GFS SWINGS THE CENTER OF A
CLOSED LOW STRAIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH THAT MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER THAN THE GFS. TIMING DIFFERENCES
IMPACT ALL SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS BUT ESPECIALLY POPS...
SUPERBLEND IS INCREASING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE GFS HAS SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND THE GFS IN
COVERAGE...AMOUNTS...AND TIMING...WILL DROP SUPERBLEND POPS QUITE
A BIT TO TAKE THE ECMWF TIMING INTO ACCOUNT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE IMPACTED AS THE GFS DRIVES A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOWER WIND
SPEEDS AND AN AIRMASS NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER THAN THE MIDDLE PART
BUT HOW COOL REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH TIME FOR THE
SYSTEM AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1143 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
BAND OF SNOW IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PUEBLO AREA...WHILE
SNOW UPSTREAM HAS LIGHTENED UP CONSIDERABLY AS FORCING FROM THE
UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING EASTWARD. REVISED POP GRIDS TO CAPTURE THE
BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES.
AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES WITH
THIS BAND. HRRR SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH KEEPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
...WINTER RETURNS FOR A DAY FOR PARTS OF THE PLAINS...
CURRENTLY...
AT 3 AM...EAST-WEST BAND OF SNOW...MDT IN INTENSITY PER RADAR...WERE
LOCATED ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY. LIGHTER SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS THE
REST OF EL PASO COUNTY...AND SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED INTO N
PUEBLO COUNTY AS VERY LIGHT SNOW WAS NOTED OUTSIDE THE WX OFFICE
HERE IN PUEBLO. SNOW ALSO NOTED IN TELLER COUNTY PER RADAR AND
WEBCAMS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS...A LOW OVC DECK WAS
NOTED. INTERIOR MTNS AND VALLEYS FOR THE MOST PART WERE
DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS LIKELY SOME SNOW FALLING AT HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OVER THE C MTNS PER RADAR.
A 2NDRY COLD FRONT WAS APPARENT IN THE RADAR DATA AND IT EXTENDED
FROM DEN TO LIC AND THEN INTO KIOWA COUNTY. IT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME.
TODAY...
MOST SNOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE WILL FALL ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION.
TOWARDS SUNRISE EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR E
PLAINS...AND THE SNOW IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY
START TO DROP SOUTH AS THE 2NDRY FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE S MTNS.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WILL BE DURING THE MID
MORNING TIME PERIOD. BY THIS AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE FROM THE PALMER DVD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS WALSENBURG...AND THIS IS WHERE I DREW UP THE
GREATEST POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH N EL PASO COUNTY CAREFULLY AS BANDING PRECIP
HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IF THESE BANDS
PERSIST...THEN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD
LOCALLY REACH INTO WARNING CRITERIA.
THE PLAINS WILL BE OVC THE ENTIRE DAY AND IT WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN N
EL PASO COUNTY.
OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS AND VALLEYS...IT SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY.
TONIGHT...
BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS
INTERFACE...WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE L20S
MOST PLAINS WITH SOME TEENS IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEENS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS/MTNS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
...HIGH FIRE DANGER EARLY NEXT WEEK...MORE SNOW AND COLD POSSIBLE
LATER...
THE SPRING WEATHER-COASTER IS HERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL STILL BE COLD WITH EVEN A FEW
SPOTTY FLURRIES NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLY...BUT THEN A NICE WARMING
TREND SETS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE
AGAIN.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE GRIPS OF
ANOTHER WINDY AND DRY PERIOD. THE CURRENT SNOWFALL MAY HAVE SOME
IMPACT IN DETERRING THE FIRE DANGER IN PARTS OF THE AREA...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND HOW MUCH IS LEFT BY THE TIME MONDAY ROLLS
AROUND. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT ANY POSITIVE IMPACT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED AS SHORT TURN AROUND FUELS LIKE DEAD GRASSES TEND TO DRY OUT
VERY QUICKLY...MINIMIZING THE TEMPORARY WETTING EFFECT OF THE
SNOWFALL. SO...LIKELY DEALING WITH FIRE CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN UP THE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS A BIT WHERE THE SNOW IS
ABSENT. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT THEY BECOME
QUITE STRONG ON TUESDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DAY OF EXTREME
FIRE DANGER. FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THEY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...WHILE HIGH FIRE DANGER
IMPACTS MOST AREAS...WIND-DRIVEN SNOW WILL START MOVING BACK INTO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MAKES ITS WAY EAST FROM THE PACIFIC.
WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE WEATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY...BUT THE REPRIEVE LOOKS SHORT-LIVED. THE DAY LOOKS TO
START OUT WITH JUST A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. BUT...BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM
STARTS DIGGING INTO NEW MEXICO...WITH PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW
AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN...DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES WIDESPREAD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW. THE SNOW THEN LINGERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH TIME OUT OF THE STATE.
HARD TO SAY WHAT THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKE AT THIS DISTANT
RANGE...BUT IT HAS POTENTIAL. THE STORM...ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK...WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. BUT AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL.
PATTERN APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE MUCH MORE ACTIVE FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE MONTH THAN IT WAS FOR THE FIRST. FINGERS CROSSED. NO ONE
WANTS AN EARLY FIRE SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016
MVFR TO IFR VIS/CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...AFFECTING
THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS REFORMING NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS MAY SPREAD BACK INTO THE KCOS TERMINAL DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...TAKING CIGS BACK DOWN INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY. SNOW WILL END AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 00Z...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT BOTH KCOS
AND KPUB...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS
AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND FROM A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER 13Z FOR KCOS WHICH
SHOULD ERODE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SOUTH OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...CIGS AT KPUB WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR SNOWFALL...ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...THOUGH KPUB COULD PICK
UP AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
KALS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
15-25 KTS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE DURING THE EVENING.-KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ081-
082-084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
422 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Radar and satellite mosaics continue to show a large area of rain
and embedded convection over the north-central Gulf of Mexico and
adjacent parts of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. As
was discussed earlier this morning, the MCS over the Gulf has
limited the northward expansion of the LLJ over land portions of the
Southeast. This is confirmed by looking at surface and VWP wind
observations, as well as recent RAP analysis. Essentially the area
of low-level convergence in which the rain and storms have been
developing has only been further enhanced while remaining relatively
stationary. That has largely prevented any rain or thunderstorms
from affecting our area. Scattered thunderstorms were also forming
in a separate region north of I-20 in central Mississippi and
central Alabama. The overall result has been that our area has
largely stayed dry for much of the day. PoPs were further decreased
prior to 21-22Z over most of the area, and temperatures were nudged
down again as mid-high level cloud layers continue to stream NE off
the Gulf convection.
Looking ahead to tonight, there are some signs that rain will
finally build into the forecast area. In addition to cooling and
northward-expanding cloud tops near coastal LA, MS, AL, there has
also been an increase in convection in the past 1-2 hours between I-
20 and the coast in MS and AL. All of this is indicative of
increasing ascent, which should allow rain to fill in this afternoon
and evening and push east. There is not a cohesive timeline
portrayed by the global or convection allowing models, so we just
showed a general trend toward 50-70% PoPs tonight. There may be
sufficient overlap of marginal elevated instability and around 40
knots of 0-6km bulk shear to produce a few stronger storms
overnight, with hail being the primary threat.
.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
On Saturday, a slow moving or stationary boundary will be in place
over the region. As a result POPs will be high around 70 percent for
nearly all locations. Thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon
with a marginal risk for severe. With CAPE forecast at 500 to 900
and 0 to 6 km shear forecast at 30 to 40 knots, a few isolated
severe storms are possible. By Saturday night, the cold front is
forecast to pick up some speed. Northwest portions of the region
will see decreasing POPs at this time and southeast portions of the
region will see POPs in the 40 to 65 percent range with thunder
possible. Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s. Lows Saturday night
will be in the low to mid 40s in northwest portions of the region
and upper 40s and lower 50s elsewhere.
On Sunday, the cold front is forecast to be southeast of the region.
Expect drier weather and much cooler temperatures. Despite mostly
sunny skies, highs will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s for most
of the region. Sunday night, lows will be in the upper 30s for all
locations except for the immediate coast.
.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Most of the coming week is expected to be fairly uneventful.
Subsidence aloft associated with a high pressure system will promote
cooler and drier conditions over the area early in the week. There
is a possibility of low temperatures in the 30s before sunrise on
Monday morning and again on Monday night. Later in the week, a low
pressure system is expected to track northeastward across the
midwest, dragging a cold front across the southeastern states. The
flow of gulf moisture ahead of the cold front will promote a steady
increase of temperatures and humidity through the later parts of the
week. The threat of thunderstorms is expected to return by Friday as
the front approaches our area.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]
As of 1730Z, a mixture of cloud layers existed across the area,
with lower clouds (IFR to low end MVFR) situated further south
near ECP, TLH, and VLD. To the north, the clouds were mostly above
10,000 feet. Some of the low cloud layers may lift a bit this
afternoon, with a trend toward MVFR-VFR at most locations through
the late afternoon or early evening (around 00Z timeframe). It
also should stay fairly dry through around 21-22Z, although rain
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will begin to push into
the area after that. The timing of particular areas of rain is
quite uncertain at this time, and the uncertainty is also higher
than normal in terms of cloud layer trends after 00Z. For the
TAFs, we simplified things with a broad forecast of rain showers
and IFR CIGS, although it would be reasonable to expect some
variability between 00Z this evening and 18Z tomorrow with several
rounds of rain showers possible.
&&
.Marine...
Light southerly winds are expected tonight and Saturday. Also
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected as a cold front
approaches. A few storms may be severe. Late Saturday evening, winds
will begin to shift to the northwest as the cold front passes. Winds
will increase to SCA levels (20 to 25 knots) around midnight for
western portions of marine waters. SCA level winds will spread to
all marine waters by Sunday morning. Winds and seas will remain
elevated until Monday afternoon.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected through the
weekend.
&&
.Hydrology...
An additional 1-3 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday
night across most of the area with localized additional amounts of
5 inches possible. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur
during the overnight hours tonight. The large scale rainfall
amounts are not expected to be heavy enough for widespread
flooding, but some isolated instances of flooding could occur
tonight when the heaviest rainfall rates occur. Area rivers will
be on the rise with the lower Choctawhatchee and Apalachicola
basins the most likely to be impacted over the next several days.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 64 77 50 64 39 / 70 70 60 10 0
Panama City 65 72 51 61 44 / 70 70 40 0 0
Dothan 61 72 45 59 38 / 70 70 20 0 0
Albany 62 75 46 60 38 / 70 70 30 0 0
Valdosta 63 77 51 63 39 / 60 60 60 10 0
Cross City 63 79 56 68 39 / 50 50 60 20 0
Apalachicola 66 74 53 63 44 / 70 60 60 10 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...KING/MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...DVD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
337 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.NEAR TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
REST OF AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PERSISTED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HELPED MIX DOWN DRIER AIR WHICH SQUASHED
MOST CONVECTION. WSR 88D WAS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS MARION COUNTY. LATEST HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA AND HAVE
SCATTERED POPS THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY.
TONIGHT...STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SE GA LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY LATE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY AND TRACKS INTO NW GA BY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
ALONG WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS
ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS.
SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS N GA INTO SC BY LATE IN
THE DAY AS A LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. AREA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS.
GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SPC HAS
OUR AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN CONCERN. WARM SW WINDS WILL HELP PUSH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 70S...WITH A FEW 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
.SHORT TERM...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN
SE GA WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AROUND 40 KNOTS OF
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POSING THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS THE
FRONT ENTERS NORTHEAST FL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COVERAGE IN PRECIP
WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY BUT HAVE KEPT AROUND 40 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS THESE AREAS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST FL INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING FROM SW TO NW AS
FRONT PASSES. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN DROPPING LOW TEMPS ACROSS
SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. ELSEWHERE LOW
60S ARE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARILY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NE FL COASTAL
AREAS AND SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY DURING THE MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MID MORNING. NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE DROP EXPECTED ON SUNDAY EVEN
WITH SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
SE GA AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS NE FL. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH GUSTING AROUND 20-25 MPH. TEMPS
SUNDAY NIGHT DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...WITH
WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WILL FEEL AROUND 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE FORECAST
LOW TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES...CENTERING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ENTERING
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS MOVEMENT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL US
LATE IN THE WEEK. COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. AS WINDS SHIFT ON
TUESDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 70S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LOW 80S BY THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT DUE TO
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCP MOVING IN WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. HAVE KEPT MOST TERMINALS VFR EXCEPT HAVE
MVFR CIGS AT GNV AFT 04Z. ALSO EXPECTING SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
MOVE IN OVERNITE AND HAVE LIGHT RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS
A WARM TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY
AND MOVES NE. THE LOW WILL LIFT NE TO THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK FOR THE NE FL BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY
DUE TO PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 63 76 53 64 / 60 70 60 10
SSI 62 73 57 66 / 60 70 60 20
JAX 64 78 58 68 / 60 70 50 20
SGJ 64 78 61 69 / 60 70 50 30
GNV 64 79 59 69 / 60 70 50 20
OCF 64 81 61 70 / 60 60 50 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
GUILLET/PETERSON/WALSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
322 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS WEEKEND...
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...THE DRIER AIR ON THE MORNING SOUNDINGS MIXED
DOWN DURING DAYTIME HEATING AND LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S
EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE MOISTURE WAS A LITTLE DEEPER.
DIFFUSE HEATING WAS OCCURRING THROUGH CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO PUSH SLOWLY INLAND. A FEW CELLS
FORMED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING INLAND AROUND CEDAR
KEY. THE HRRR MODEL BLEW IT UP INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT
MOVED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER RADAR SHOWED THESE
ECHOES HAD DISSIPATED. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPED SOME SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION JUST INLAND FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING. WILL PAY SOME HONOR TO THE HRRR AND HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...HIGHER MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS AN IMPULSE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH. EXPECT THIS WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS...BUT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY CONTINUE SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. MOS HAS BEEN CARRYING
HIGHER POPS DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SO WILL NOT
CHANGE OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THAT TREND.
SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH
WILL CAUSE A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
LOCALLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. WE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE WAKE OF ONE IMPULSE ALOFT EARLY
IN THE DAY AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE SEMI-PREVALENT
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND QUITE COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPS ALONG WITH MODEST HEATING INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...WHILE THE EAST
COAST BOUNDARY WILL NOT MOVE INLAND MUCH. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT ANY IMPULSES IN THE RATHER FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT
WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS POPS...AROUND 60 PERCENT
SAT NIGHT-SUN...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WELL WEST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ADVECTS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. MID LEVEL/500MB
IMPULSES IN THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL/250MB JET MOVE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NIGHT.
MID LEVEL/500MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE AROUND -12C WHICH IS PLENTY
COLD/COOL ENOUGH TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO INITIATE
CONVECTION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. GUIDANCE 50-60 POP REASONABLE AFTER LOOKING AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTION(S) SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE STARTING LATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY THEN THE MOISTURE STARTS DECREASING AS THE FRONT
WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE PENINSULA. LOWS SUN MORNING MID 60S
SUN NIGHT...FRONT CLEARS MAINLAND CENTRAL FLORIDA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
ONLY PRECIP LEFT IS TO THE EAST OVER THE SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTY
GULF STREAM AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 12 MPH NORTH TO SOUTH. THE NORTHWEST WIND ALSO
ADVECTS IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MON MORNING
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 TO THE LOW 50S
IN MARTIN COUNTY/STUART.
PREVIOUS EXTENDED...
MON-FRI...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GENERALLY NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST WED. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
SPREAD INTO FLORIDA ON MON WITH THIS FEATURE QUICKLY MOVING OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL LIE JUST NORTH OF ECFL. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WED
THRU FRI. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO
LOUISIANA ON THU PER THE GFS BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. ASIDE FROM TIMING...STRENGTH AND SURFACE/UPPER FEATURE
PLACEMENT ALSO NOT IN LINE CURRENTLY BETWEEN BOTH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS.
MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH 60S AREAWIDE...STILL BELOW
NORMAL INTO TUE WITH L-M 70S AND A MIX OF NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FOR HIGHS WED-THU. LOWS IN THE 40S INTERIOR/50S SPACE/TREASURE
COASTS TUE MORNING...GENERALLY 50S WED MORNING...EXCEPT L60S
IMMEDIATE ST. LUCIE/MARTIN COASTS AND PUSHING BACK UP NEAR 60
DEGREES TO L60S THU/FRI MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...
STILL VFR EVERYWHERE. LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GO UP
OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS AN IMPULSE ALOFT APPROACHES. THOUGH MOS
GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING MUCH MVFR...WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR TO
OCCUR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING MAINLY NORTH OF KMCO-KTIX.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK HIGH SAT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF STORMS.
THE BULK EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...FLOW HAS BECOME LIGHT AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WAS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL STAY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME SOUTH
ON SAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE 3-4 FEET PRIMARILY DUE TO A LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL
AT 13-15 SECONDS.
THE PRIMARY THREAT TO MARINERS WILL BE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OFFSHORE ON
SAT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 15KNOTS OR MORE LATE SUNDAY. SCATTERED/LIKELY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH LINGER DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
EVENING AND SHOULD HAVE ENDED BY SUNRISE MON MORNING. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE SUN EVENING AND REMAIN 20
KNOTS OR MORE THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
MON-WED...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS EARLY MON SHIFT TO
NORTH AND DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS MON NIGHT. WINDS DECREASE TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO THE EAST TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRESSURE RE ALIGNS
ITSELF WEST TO EAST WITH ITS CENTER AXIS OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY MON...
RUN A LINE FROM AROUND DAYTONA BEACH TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE.
TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...RH LESS THAN 30 PERCENT TO AROUND 20
PERCENT CLERMONT AND SOUTH LAKE COUNTY. EAST OF THE SAME LINE...MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOW 30S. DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW
RH...ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES AND BREEZY 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSELY FOR INCREASED FIRE SPREAD
THREAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 64 80 63 73 / 60 60 40 50
MCO 67 84 66 76 / 30 60 40 60
MLB 67 82 67 77 / 30 60 30 70
VRB 66 83 64 80 / 30 60 40 60
LEE 65 83 66 73 / 40 60 40 50
SFB 66 83 66 75 / 50 60 40 50
ORL 68 83 67 75 / 40 60 40 60
FPR 65 84 66 80 / 30 60 50 50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
139 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY EVENING...TAKING A PATH NORTHEAST OFF THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE DETAILS OF THIS
PATH WILL DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR IF AND WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
FALLS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
--NOON UPDATE--WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST...AS MUCAPES ARE HAVING TROUBLE REACHING 100 J/KG...FULLY
EXPLAINING THE SHRA ACTIVITY THUS FAR...BUT H8-7 LAPSE RATES ARE
FAR LESS SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING MORE ROBUST. WILL UPDATE HWO
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES.
--1025AM UPDATE-- MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP TIMING AS BAND OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TURN INCREASINGLY TO LIQUID AS THEY MOVE
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE 40S. INSTABILITY IS ON THE INCREASE WITH EVIDENCE FROM MWN
TEMPS NOW FALLING THROUGH THE MID TEENS AND SURFACE TEMPS AT PSM
NEARING 50F. LATEST HRRR PROFILES SHOW LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS
SURFACE-6KFT LAYER THAT ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS ONE DAY
PREVIOUS...SO HAVE TONED DOWN THUNDER WORDING JUST A TAD...BUT
HAVE KEPT IT IN AT THIS TIME. TEMPS LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH VERY
FEW CHANGES NEEDED HERE.
--826AM UPDATE-- HAVE TRENDED SNOWFALL DOWN JUST A TAD OVER
NORTHERN AREAS BASED ON REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS RAIN
/SEE HIE/. WEBCAM IN JACKMAN MAINE DOES REVEAL A COATING OF
SNOW...AND EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO EVENTUALLY OCCUR FOR MOST
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS FROM
TOPSHAM THROUGH WISCASSET SHOULD THIN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...WITH
SPS ONGOING THROUGH 13Z LOOKING GOOD. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HAVE ISSUED SPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AS PATCHY DENSE FOG
CONTINUES ALONG THE MIDCOAST REGION AND PORTIONS OF ANDROSCOGGIN
COUNTY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH SOME
LIMITED CAPE IN THE SOUNDING OVER SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN
THIS REGION DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS SIMILAR TO WFO
BOX GRIDS. THIS TIMING IS ALSO IN STEP WITH LATEST SUITE OF
MESOSCALE MODELS. WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SMALL HAIL...NOT
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY...BUT THERE IS THAT POSSIBILITY
WITH CONTINUING LOW FREEZING LEVELS.
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY
WITH READINGS NEAR FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING AS ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINISHES
AROUND SUNSET AS IT MOVES OFF THE COASTLINE. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE AS READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
NORTH.
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. IT WILL FEEL MORE WINTERLIKE WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS IS POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST
STORM. WHILE THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM
WILL DEVELOP...THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST WITH ITS TRACK THAT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD STAY OFFSHORE. THE 00Z GFS IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW
RESEMBLES THE GFS SOLUTION. THE 00Z GGEM AND NAM HAVE COME IN
LOOKING SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF...FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER. THE
DIFERENCE`S IN TRACK APPEAR TO REVOLVE AROUND THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS AND NOW ECMWF ARE SLOWER IN
CAPTURING THE SURFACE LOW AND THEREFORE ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS
TRACK. THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAPTURE THE
SURFACE LOW QUICKER RESULTING IN A FURTHER WEST TRACK. GIVEN THAT
THIS EVENT WON`T UNFOLD UNTIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WE CHOOSE TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS WILL BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH A COUPLE MORE
TIMES BEFORE LOCKING INTO A SOLUTION.
HAVING SAID THIS...PEOPLE TRAVELING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS AS THIS STORM HAS HIGH
IMPACT POTENTIAL. CIPS ANALOG PAGES SHOW SOME EVENTS SIMILAR TO
THIS THAT HAVE YIELDED DOUBLE DIGIT SNOW. WHILE THIS IS A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO...IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND LOCAL EM DSS SLIDE.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE MIDWEEK AS AN EAST
COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
SUMMARY: COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH
CLEARING SKIES PROMOTING IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION/S WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.
RESTRICTIONS: ANY REMAINING MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR AUG/RKD
SHORTLY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ALSO CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS: NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 12G20KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL INCREASE TO 10G15KTS BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY.
LLWS: NONE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL RAISE THE FLAGS AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THANKS FOR
THE COLLABORATION.
LONG TERM...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA LEVELS AND POSSIBLY
GALES DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
EAST.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LULOFS
AVIATION...CANNON
MARINE...CANNON/LULOFS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1200 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TODAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT
MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
--NOON UPDATE--WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST...AS MUCAPES ARE HAVING TROUBLE REACHING 100 J/KG...FULLY
EXPLAINING THE SHRA ACTIVITY THUS FAR...BUT H8-7 LAPSE RATES ARE
FAR LESS SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING MORE ROBUST. WILL UPDATE HWO
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES.
--1025AM UPDATE-- MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP TIMING AS BAND OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TURN INCREASINGLY TO LIQUID AS THEY MOVE
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE 40S. INSTABILITY IS ON THE INCREASE WITH EVIDENCE FROM MWN
TEMPS NOW FALLING THROUGH THE MID TEENS AND SURFACE TEMPS AT PSM
NEARING 50F. LATEST HRRR PROFILES SHOW LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS
SURFACE-6KFT LAYER THAT ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS ONE DAY
PREVIOUS...SO HAVE TONED DOWN THUNDER WORDING JUST A TAD...BUT
HAVE KEPT IT IN AT THIS TIME. TEMPS LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH VERY
FEW CHANGES NEEDED HERE.
--826AM UPDATE-- HAVE TRENDED SNOWFALL DOWN JUST A TAD OVER
NORTHERN AREAS BASED ON REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS RAIN
/SEE HIE/. WEBCAM IN JACKMAN MAINE DOES REVEAL A COATING OF
SNOW...AND EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO EVENTUALLY OCCUR FOR MOST
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS FROM
TOPSHAM THROUGH WISCASSET SHOULD THIN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...WITH
SPS ONGOING THROUGH 13Z LOOKING GOOD. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HAVE ISSUED SPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AS PATCHY DENSE FOG
CONTINUES ALONG THE MIDCOAST REGION AND PORTIONS OF ANDROSCOGGIN
COUNTY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH SOME
LIMITED CAPE IN THE SOUNDING OVER SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN
THIS REGION DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS SIMILAR TO WFO
BOX GRIDS. THIS TIMING IS ALSO IN STEP WITH LATEST SUITE OF
MESOSCALE MODELS. WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SMALL HAIL...NOT
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY...BUT THERE IS THAT POSSIBILITY
WITH CONTINUING LOW FREEZING LEVELS.
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY
WITH READINGS NEAR FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING AS ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINISHES
AROUND SUNSET AS IT MOVES OFF THE COASTLINE. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE AS READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
NORTH.
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. IT WILL FEEL MORE WINTERLIKE WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS IS POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST
STORM. WHILE THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM
WILL DEVELOP...THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST WITH ITS TRACK THAT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD STAY OFFSHORE. THE 00Z GFS IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW
RESEMBLES THE GFS SOLUTION. THE 00Z GGEM AND NAM HAVE COME IN
LOOKING SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF...FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER. THE
DIFERENCE`S IN TRACK APPEAR TO REVOLVE AROUND THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS AND NOW ECMWF ARE SLOWER IN
CAPTURING THE SURFACE LOW AND THEREFORE ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS
TRACK. THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAPTURE THE
SURFACE LOW QUICKER RESULTING IN A FURTHER WEST TRACK. GIVEN THAT
THIS EVENT WON`T UNFOLD UNTIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WE CHOOSE TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS WILL BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH A COUPLE MORE
TIMES BEFORE LOCKING INTO A SOLUTION.
HAVING SAID THIS...PEOPLE TRAVELING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS AS THIS STORM HAS HIGH
IMPACT POTENTIAL. CIPS ANALOG PAGES SHOW SOME EVENTS SIMILAR TO
THIS THAT HAVE YIELDED DOUBLE DIGIT SNOW. WHILE THIS IS A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO...IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND LOCAL EM DSS SLIDE.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE MIDWEEK AS AN EAST
COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MIDCOAST REGION NEAR IWI.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL RAISE THE FLAGS AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THANKS FOR
THE COLLABORATION.
LONG TERM...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA LEVELS AND POSSIBLY
GALES DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
EAST.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LULOFS
AVIATION...CANNON
MARINE...CANNON/LULOFS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1250 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S. INSTABILITY CUMULUS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE H5 LOW
SLOWLY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. THE ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW IS
STILL IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOWSHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURED FAIRLY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN THEN TO THE MID ATLANTIC. A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND AN ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT
850 MB...TEMPERATURES WERE AS COLD AS -10 DEGREES C OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. A DISTURBANCE WAS SPREADING PCPN
EASTWARD FROM COLORADO ACROSS KANSAS...WHICH WILL ALSO AFFECT
PARTS OF MISSOURI. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THAT SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH BASED ON RECENT RAP AND HRRR FCSTS. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE
SINKING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA...SO HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
TONIGHT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL 850-500 MB MOISTURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD INITIALLY
BE WEAK...BUT 700 MB OMEGA VALUES INCREASE ON SATURDAY. QPF VALUES
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW APPEAR
POSSIBLE. PCPN TYPE COULD BE MOSTLY SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BASED ON WET BULB TEMPERATURES FROM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 40 NORTH AND LOWER
TO MID 40S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH POOR MIXING DUE TO
GENERALLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
MILDER AIR BACK IN FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...
SHOWING A 500 MB RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THAT RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
EASTWARD...BUT FLATTENS AS IS DOES SO THROUGH MONDAY. BY THAT
TIME...A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS.
GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AN GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE MID AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE BULK OF PCPN TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CUMULUS INCREASING MULTIPLE BKN CLOUD LAYERS
THIS AFTERNOON FL035-050 AND FL080-100. THERE MAY BE A FEW
SNOWSHOWERS...HOWEVER DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS. LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY LOOK FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AS THE
H5 LOW EXPANDS OVER IOWA. DO MENTION LOWERING CIGS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AND LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES AT KOFK
AND KOMA AFTER 11Z. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20KTS DECREASING TO
UNDER 10KTS TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASING AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING
10 TO 20KTS AND GUSTY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF SPELL OF CHILLY CONDITIONS...BUT WILL
QUICKLY LIFT OUT...FOLLOWED BY AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE BRINGING MUCH
MILDER CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT...WITH
850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM...HAS HELPED TO
BLOSSOM SCT-BKN...HIGH-BASED CU AND STRATO CU ACRS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENN.
THICKER...LAYERED CLOUDS /JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK/ WERE
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT...ALBEIT GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NCENT
MTNS OF PENN. THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL BRING UP TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AS THEY HEAD QUICKLY OFF TO THE
ESE ACROSS THE SUSQ`S MIDDLE AND WEST BRANCH COMMUNITIES...AND
OVER THE WESTERN POCONOS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTN...BUT LG SCALE FORCING AS INFERRED BY MDL
500-300MB QVEC CONV FIELDS IS VERY WEAK...SO LITTLE MORE THAN A
FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS VERY MINIMAL. THE BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF
THE NORTHERN MTNS...AND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE BASICALLY VOID OF QPF ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS INDICATED TO
DISSIPATE NEAR THE RT 6 CORRIDOR IN NRN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT SCHC POPS /15-20 PERCENT/
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 30 POPS OVER THE NORTH
EXPECT THE CURRENT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO PEAK OUT MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30KT RANGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BELT OF 40-45KT
800 MB WINDS WILL EXIT EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BY 19Z...SO THE
PEAK GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE SHORTLY.
TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THEIR FCST MAX VALUES...RANGING FROM THE L-M40S
OVR THE NRN MTNS...TO AROUND 60F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS
INTO PA TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS THE LOWEST SEEN IN SOME
TIME...RANGING FROM THE L20S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE L30S IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PWAT AIR MASS NOSING
INTO PA SHOULD ENSURE A DRY SATURDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN
PA.
HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF 12Z GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF DATA STILL
SUGGESTS A BIT OF LIGHT...WET SNOW/RAIN SPREADING INTO THE SRN
TIER COUNTIES OF PENN BY THE AFTN HOURS ASSOC WITH A LEAD SHOT OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...TO THE EAST OF A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY...AND NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING SFC
LOW OVR THE S APPALACHIANS.
BLENDED QPF SUGGESTS A LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IS POSS OVR THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF SOMERSET/BEDFORD CO BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH LITTLE
CHC OF MEASURABLE ACCUM ELSEWHERE AT ELEVATION BLO 1700 FT MSL.
EARLY SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY SHOULD FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS
/ESP SOUTH/ WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S-M40S /OR -5 TO -10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON BEHIND US...THE
COMPLACENCY OF A RATHER MILD WINTER MAY HAVE SET IN WITH AN TASTE
OF LATE-SPRING WARMTH/60-70+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES ALREADY OBSERVED
IN MOST PLACES ACROSS PA. BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOTHER NATURE MAY BE
REMINDING US OF THE HIGHLY VOLATILE TEMPERATURE AND SENSIBLE
WEATHER SWINGS THAT SPRINGTIME CAN DELIVER.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING TOWARD A MEAN
TROUGH IN THE EAST THAT WILL SUPPORT A STRONGLY DEEPENING SFC LOW
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS. BULK OF 00Z FRIDAY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ONE PIECE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST WILL BREAK OFF AND
LIFT THRU PA SAT EVENING...PRODUCING THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
WILL THREATEN PRIMARILY SE PA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. GEFS PLUMES SHOWING WIDELY VARYING AMTS BASED ON EXACT
SFC LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...WARNING TYPE AMTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
APPEAR UNLIKELY BASED ON 00Z GEFS PROBS AS WELL AS THE LATEST OPER
ECMWF/CANADIAN RUNS.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WHILE NARROWING TO A CERTAIN
DEGREE...STILL RESULT IN A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CONFIDENCE/RISK
HAS INCREASED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN AN INCREASE IN POPS
TO LKLY OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION IS HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE MODELS...THE FCST DETAILS
REMAIN VERY IN QUESTION WITH COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS (TEMPS/PTYPES) AND ELEVATION
DEPENDENCY WITH SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F
/ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/...NOT TO MENTION TIMING DIFFERENCES.
THE STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS/WARM
GROUND TEMPS GIVEN THE RECENT MILD SPELL MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GRASS AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THUS
MITIGATING IMPACTS TO SOME EXTENT. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE-SEASON
SNOW EVENTS IN CENTRAL PA. OVERALL WE HAVE STARTED TO HEDGE THE
FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE SNOW VS. RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ODDS
OF ACCUMULATION TRENDING HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND BRISK/GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
LOW (NOR`EASTER?) AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE MARITIMES... WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LKLY OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE NICELY INTO THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SW
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC. DRY WX MON NGT-TUE IS FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES
LATER TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGIONAL AIRFIELDS LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL BRING SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MTNS OF PENN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND KBFD /WITH
SHORT-LIVED LOCAL REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE THERE - BUT PROB LOW ENOUGH
TO NOT MENTION IN TAF/.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKIES FILLED WITH A BKN LAYER OF HIGH-BASED
CU OR ALTOCU ELSEWHERE.
THE BIGGER STORY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WINDS THE GUSTY
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH
IN MOST PLACES...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH THROUGH
21Z. SOME HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PENN FROM KJST-KAOO/KUNV-KMDT. THIS ARE WILL BE
BENEATH A BELT OF 40-45 KT WINDS UP AT AROUND 4000 FT AGL. THE
PEAK GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS THIS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS SLIDES OFF INTO EASTER
PENN AND THE DEPTH OF VERTICAL MOMENTUM MIXING DECREASES A LITTLE.
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING...SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH QUICKLY WANE AS DIURNAL HEATING
DIMINISHES.
MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT VFR CONTINUES
ELSEWHERE. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE FROM SW-NE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH BORDERLINE MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHOF KJST AFTER 19Z.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS SPREAD SW-NE ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT SNOW
BECOMES LIKELY SW LATE.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING /ESP SOUTH AND EAST / WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS.
MON...QUITE BREEZY. RESTRICTIONS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR TO BRIEF MVFR ELSEWHERE.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW MTNS. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH PA FIRE MANAGERS THE ASSESSMENT IS THAT
FUELS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST AFTER RECENT RAINS AND WILL TAKE
SEVERAL DAYS TO DRY OUT. THUS...NO RED FLAG ISSUANCE IS PLANNED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY AND FAST SPREAD
IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW RH...BUT NOT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
116 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF SPELL OF CHILLY CONDITIONS...BUT WILL
QUICKLY LIFT OUT...FOLLOWED BY AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE BRINGING MUCH
MILDER CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT...WITH
850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM...HAS HELPED TO
BLOSSOM SCT-BKN...HIGH-BASED CU AND STRATO CU ACRS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENN.
THICKER...LAYERED CLOUDS /JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK/ WERE
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT...ALBEIT GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NCENT
MTNS OF PENN. THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL BRING UP TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AS THEY HEAD QUICKLY OFF TO THE
ESE ACROSS THE SUSQ`S MIDDLE AND WEST BRANCH COMMUNITIES...AND
OVER THE WESTERN POCONOS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTN...BUT LG SCALE FORCING AS INFERRED BY MDL
500-300MB QVEC CONV FIELDS IS VERY WEAK...SO LITTLE MORE THAN A
FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS VERY MINIMAL. THE BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF
THE NORTHERN MTNS...AND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE BASICALLY VOID OF QPF ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS INDICATED TO
DISSIPATE NEAR THE RT 6 CORRIDOR IN NRN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT SCHC POPS /15-20 PERCENT/
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 30 POPS OVER THE NORTH
EXPECT THE CURRENT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO PEAK OUT MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30KT RANGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BELT OF 40-45KT
800 MB WINDS WILL EXIT EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BY 19Z...SO THE
PEAK GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE SHORTLY.
TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THEIR FCST MAX VALUES...RANGING FROM THE L-M40S
OVR THE NRN MTNS...TO AROUND 60F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS
INTO PA TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS THE LOWEST SEEN IN SOME
TIME...RANGING FROM THE L20S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE L30S IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PWAT AIR MASS NOSING
INTO PA SHOULD ENSURE A DRY SATURDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN
PA.
HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF 12Z GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF DATA STILL
SUGGESTS A BIT OF LIGHT...WET SNOW/RAIN SPREADING INTO THE SRN
TIER COUNTIES OF PENN BY THE AFTN HOURS ASSOC WITH A LEAD SHOT OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...TO THE EAST OF A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY...AND NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING SFC
LOW OVR THE S APPALACHIANS.
BLENDED QPF SUGGESTS A LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IS POSS OVR THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF SOMERSET/BEDFORD CO BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH LITTLE
CHC OF MEASURABLE ACCUM ELSEWHERE AT ELEVATION BLO 1700 FT MSL.
EARLY SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY SHOULD FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS
/ESP SOUTH/ WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S-M40S /OR -5 TO -10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON BEHIND US...THE
COMPLACENCY OF A RATHER MILD WINTER MAY HAVE SET IN WITH AN TASTE
OF LATE-SPRING WARMTH/60-70+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES ALREADY OBSERVED
IN MOST PLACES ACROSS PA. BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOTHER NATURE MAY BE
REMINDING US OF THE HIGHLY VOLATILE TEMPERATURE AND SENSIBLE
WEATHER SWINGS THAT SPRINGTIME CAN DELIVER.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING TOWARD A MEAN
TROUGH IN THE EAST THAT WILL SUPPORT A STRONGLY DEEPENING SFC LOW
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS. BULK OF 00Z FRIDAY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ONE PIECE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST WILL BREAK OFF AND
LIFT THRU PA SAT EVENING...PRODUCING THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
WILL THREATEN PRIMARILY SE PA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. GEFS PLUMES SHOWING WIDELY VARYING AMTS BASED ON EXACT
SFC LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...WARNING TYPE AMTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
APPEAR UNLIKELY BASED ON 00Z GEFS PROBS AS WELL AS THE LATEST OPER
ECMWF/CANADIAN RUNS.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WHILE NARROWING TO A CERTAIN
DEGREE...STILL RESULT IN A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CONFIDENCE/RISK
HAS INCREASED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN AN INCREASE IN POPS
TO LKLY OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION IS HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE MODELS...THE FCST DETAILS
REMAIN VERY IN QUESTION WITH COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS (TEMPS/PTYPES) AND ELEVATION
DEPENDENCY WITH SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F
/ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/...NOT TO MENTION TIMING DIFFERENCES.
THE STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS/WARM
GROUND TEMPS GIVEN THE RECENT MILD SPELL MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GRASS AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THUS
MITIGATING IMPACTS TO SOME EXTENT. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE-SEASON
SNOW EVENTS IN CENTRAL PA. OVERALL WE HAVE STARTED TO HEDGE THE
FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE SNOW VS. RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ODDS
OF ACCUMULATION TRENDING HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND BRISK/GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
LOW (NOR`EASTER?) AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE MARITIMES... WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LKLY OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE NICELY INTO THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SW
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC. DRY WX MON NGT-TUE IS FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES
LATER TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGIONAL AIRFIELDS LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL BRING SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MTNS OF PENN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND KBFD /WITH
SHORT-LIVED LOCAL REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE THERE - BUT PROB LOW ENOUGH
TO NOT MENTION IN TAF/.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKIES FILLED WITH A BKN LAYER OF HIGH-BASED
CU OR ALTOCU ELSEWHERE.
THE BIGGER STORY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WINDS THE GUSTY
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH
IN MOST PLACES...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH THROUGH
21Z. SOME HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PENN FROM KJST-KAOO/KUNV-KMDT. THIS ARE WILL BE
BENEATH A BELT OF 40-45 KT WINDS UP AT AROUND 4000 FT AGL. THE
PEAK GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS THIS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS SLIDES OFF INTO EASTER
PENN AND THE DEPTH OF VERTICAL MOMENTUM MIXING DECREASES A LITTLE.
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING...SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH QUICKLY WANE AS DIURNAL HEATING
DIMINISHES.
MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT VFR CONTINUES
ELSEWHERE. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE FROM SW-NE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH BORDERLINE MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHOF KJST AFTER 19Z.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS SPREAD SW-NE ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT SNOW
BECOMES LIKELY SW LATE.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING /ESP SOUTH AND EAST / WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS.
MON...QUITE BREEZY. RESTRICTIONS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR TO BRIEF MVFR ELSEWHERE.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW MTNS. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH PA FIRE MANAGERS THE ASSESSMENT IS THAT
FUELS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST /AOA 10 PERCENT/ AFTER RECENT RAINS
AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO DRY OUT. THUS...NO RED FLAG
ISSUANCE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN FIRE
ACTIVITY AND FAST SPREAD IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW
RH...BUT NOT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1213 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT WITH AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE LIKELY ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THIS UPDATE.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BLANKETS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN AT
NOON...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF THE STATE...WHERE
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE...DUAL-LAYERED STRATOCU DECK
WAS PRESSING SOUTH AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT.
DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD YIELD
INCREASING CU AND THE CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTN...MAINLY
ACROSS NRN PENN.
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTN...BUT LG SCALE FORCING AS INFERRED BY MDL
500-300MB QVEC CONV FIELDS IS VERY WEAK. THE BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF
THE NORTHERN MTNS.
THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE BASICALLY VOID OF QPF ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS INDICATED TO
DISSIPATE NEAR THE RT 6 CORRIDOR IN NRN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT IN COMPLETELY FOLLOWING THIS DRY...SHORT
RANGE/HIGH RES GUIDANCE THOUGH...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE 88D LOOP
SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXPANDING A BIT ACROSS THE NRN MTNS
WHILE DRIFTING QUICKLY TO THE ESE.
THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT SCHC POPS /15-20 PERCENT/
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 30 POPS OVER THE NORTH
EXPECT THE CURRENT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO INCREASE BY ANOTHER 5 KTS OR
SO...AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT READILY MIX TO THE SFC WITHIN THE
DEEP BLYR. BUKFIT SOUNDINGS AND HRRR SUPPORT WGUSTS DURING THE
AFTN OF 30-35KTS...AND WE/RE CURRENTLY SEEING THESE TYPE OF GUSTS
AT KUNV...KDUJ AND KJST/. PEAK WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY JUST UNDER
ADVISORY OF G40KT.
GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE L40S OVR THE NW
MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS
INTO PA TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS THE LOWEST IN SOME TIME...RANGING
FROM THE L20S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE L30S IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS NOSING INTO PA
SHOULD ENSURE A DRY SATURDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...BULK
OF GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS A BIT OF LGT SNOW/RAIN WILL WORK INTO
THE S TIER COUNTIES BY AFTN ASSOC WITH DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVR THE
S APPALACHIANS. BLENDED QPF SUGGESTS A LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IS POSS
OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET/BEDFORD CO BY EVENING...WITH
LITTLE CHC OF MEASURABLE ACCUM ELSEWHERE.
EARLY SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY SHOULD FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS
/ESP SOUTH/ WITH MAX TEMPS MID 30S-M40S OR -5 TO -10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON BEHIND US...THE
COMPLACENCY OF A RATHER MILD WINTER MAY HAVE SET IN WITH AN TASTE
OF LATE-SPRING WARMTH/60-70+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES ALREADY OBSERVED
IN MOST PLACES ACROSS PA. BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOTHER NATURE MAY BE
REMINDING US OF THE HIGHLY VOLATILE TEMPERATURE AND SENSIBLE
WEATHER SWINGS THAT SPRINGTIME CAN DELIVER.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING TOWARD A MEAN
TROUGH IN THE EAST THAT WILL SUPPORT A STRONGLY DEEPENING SFC LOW
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS. BULK OF 00Z FRIDAY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ONE PIECE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST WILL BREAK OFF AND
LIFT THRU PA SAT EVENING...PRODUCING THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
WILL THREATEN PRIMARILY SE PA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. GEFS PLUMES SHOWING WIDELY VARYING AMTS BASED ON EXACT
SFC LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...WARNING TYPE AMTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
APPEAR UNLIKELY BASED ON 00Z GEFS PROBS AS WELL AS THE LATEST OPER
ECMWF/CANADIAN RUNS.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WHILE NARROWING TO A CERTAIN
DEGREE...STILL RESULT IN A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CONFIDENCE/RISK
HAS INCREASED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN AN INCREASE IN POPS
TO LKLY OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION IS HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE MODELS...THE FCST DETAILS
REMAIN VERY IN QUESTION WITH COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS (TEMPS/PTYPES) AND ELEVATION
DEPENDENCY WITH SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F
/ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/...NOT TO MENTION TIMING DIFFERENCES.
THE STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS/WARM
GROUND TEMPS GIVEN THE RECENT MILD SPELL MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GRASS AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THUS
MITIGATING IMPACTS TO SOME EXTENT. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE-SEASON
SNOW EVENTS IN CENTRAL PA. OVERALL WE HAVE STARTED TO HEDGE THE
FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE SNOW VS. RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ODDS
OF ACCUMULATION TRENDING HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND BRISK/GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
LOW (NOR`EASTER?) AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE MARITIMES... WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LKLY OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE NICELY INTO THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SW
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC. DRY WX MON NGT-TUE IS FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES
LATER TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGIONAL AIRFIELDS LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL BRING SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MTNS OF PENN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND KBFD /WITH
SHORT-LIVED LOCAL REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE THERE - BUT PROB LOW ENOUGH
TO NOT MENTION IN TAF/.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKIES FILLING WITH HIGH-BASED CU OR ALTOCU
ELSEWHERE.
THE BIGGER STORY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WINDS THE GUSTY
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH
IN MOST PLACES...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH THROUGH
21Z. SOME HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45 MPH ARE LIKELY FROM KJST-
KAOO- KMDT.
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH QUICKLY WANE. MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT
VFR CONTINUES ELSEWHERE. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH...BUT SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS SPREAD SW-NE ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT SNOW
BECOMES LIKELY SW LATE.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING /ESP SOUTH AND EAST / WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS.
MON...QUITE BREEZY. RESTRICTIONS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR TO BRIEF MVFR ELSEWHERE.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW MTNS. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH PA FIRE MANAGERS THE ASSESSMENT IS THAT
FUELS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST AFTER RECENT RAINS AND WILL TAKE
SEVERAL DAY TO DRY OUT. THUS...NO RED FLAG ISSUANCE IS PLANNED AT
THIS TIME. AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY AND FAST SPREAD IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW RH...BUT NOT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
328 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION TONIGHT...TRACKING NE AND ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING.
THE HRRR SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS JUST AFTER
00Z...BUT WITH THE LOW LEVELS STARTING OFF SO DRY...MEASURABLE PRECIP
WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE STRONGER LIFT MOVES IN AND THE
SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW PICKS UP BETWEEN 06-09Z. WILL RAISE POPS
QUICKLY IN THAT PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SOUTH
WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. POPS WILL
RISE TO CATEGORICAL AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING POPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION...AND A CHANGE TO SNOW MAY OCCUR IN SW VA AND THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE MOISTURE PULLS AWAY. POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE SHALLOW AND THIN NATURE OF THE
MOISTURE...WHICH STAYS WELL BELOW THE -10C LEVEL...AND UPSLOPE FLOW
IS WEAK. WILL LOWER POPS TO LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC EAST COAST BY
MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS LOW ELEVATIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD
AIR ALOFT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
LEAVING THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES VERY COLD WITH HIGHS 40S
TO LOWER 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN INCH OR
SO OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BUT ONLY A FEW
FLURRIES TO TRACE LOWER ELEVATIONS. NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BRIEF
SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY MONDAY. ALSO SOME BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WITH FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND NW WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. A FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING POSSIBLE IN ALL BUT
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND A COUPLE SW VA COUNTIES WHERE FREEZE PROGRAM
HAS NOT STARTED YET. MONDAY SKIES CLEAR WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND. HOWEVER MONDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD
FROST LIKELY ALL AREAS AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
EASTERN TN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND ALL
OF NE TN AND SW VA. TROUGH IN THE EAST MOVES OUT MONDAY NIGHT THEN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY AND SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE
NEAR AVERAGE LOWER TO MID 60S. RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AT MID WEEK
AND HIGHS WARM FURTHER TO MID 60S TO MID 70S. RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY MORE THURSDAY AS NEW SYSTEM DIVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY WITH THUNDER
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 62 40 53 / 80 70 20 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 57 37 48 / 60 80 20 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 47 55 37 49 / 70 80 20 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 56 36 45 / 50 90 20 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/TD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FEATURES OF NOTE AT 3 PM WERE A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...A STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR AND EAST OF HOUSTON COUNTY...AND A COLD FRONT NEAR A LINE
FROM TERRELL TO NEAR WACO. THE AIRMASS OVER SE TX HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CAPPED ALL DAY...HOWEVER DO EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING AS THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AND THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. SOME HAVE ALREADY STARTED OVER TRINITY
AND POLK COUNTIES NEAR WHERE THE GRAVITY WAVE WAS INTERACTING WITH
THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT.
THE MODELS DIFFERED A BIT ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE DONE WELL SO FAR AND
BOTH HAVE LESS COVERAGE THAN WAS EARLIER FORECAST. THE NAM12...
ARW...NMM...AND TO AN EXTENT THE RAP13...ALSO AGREE WITH LESS
COVERAGE. THE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFLUENT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE SHEARING OUT SYSTEM IN MEXICO. DO
EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO OCCUR AT LEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BECAUSE
OF THIS...DECIDED TO GO WITH NO MORE THAN 50 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST SHOULD OCCUR AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SE
TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT LEAST ALONG
THE COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
40
&&
.MARINE...
THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM...OR ONCE THE
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT ARRIVE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
POSTED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. GUSTS TO 30KT ARE A
POSSIBILITY SAT MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND SWING BACK ONSHORE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND SEAS THEN BUILD
INTO MIDWEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. 47
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER
MSUNNY SKIES. RH`S SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 27-32% RANGE WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE MET, BUT MAY BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/
AVIATION...
CIGS ARE LIFTING INTO HIGHER END MVFR AND VFR TERRITORY...AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTN. MAY SEE SOME SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO CLL
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE SE TX EARLY IN THE EVENING AND OFF THE
COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE`S A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING MORE COVERAGE
THAN SOME OF THE HIRES SOLNS - SOME OF WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE
IMPACTING SE TX TAF SITES. ONE THING THAT IS DIFFERENT TODAY IS
THAT WE`RE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE HEATING/INSTABILITY THAN WE`VE SEEN IN PAST DAYS. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED.
SHOULD SEE CIGS FILL BACK IN TO 900-1900 FEET POST FROPA...GRADUALLY
LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT
THE COAST. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 62 42 63 40 / 50 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 57 66 46 66 41 / 50 20 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 62 68 53 65 51 / 60 30 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
BUT SOME CHANCE EXISTS AT REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. A PATCH OF MVFR CIGS MAY FILL BACK IN AT KLBB/KPVW LATE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING TO
VFR BY DAYBREAK. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE REGION.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/
SHORT TERM...
IR SATELLITE AND REGIONAL METARS AT 2 AM CLEARLY SHOWED THE COLD
FRONT HAD CLEARED MOST OF THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF STOUT
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 43 MPH IN DALHART. HRRR AND RAP
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FRONT WHICH SHOULD CLEAR LUBBOCK
BETWEEN 5 AM AND 6 AM. OF GREATER INTEREST IS THE RECENT
BLOSSOMING OF LOW CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS STRATUS IS TIED TO A ZONAL
LL MOISTURE AXIS IN ERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT WHERE
THIS AXIS INTERSECTS THE FRONT. UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF FAVORABLE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THIS MOISTURE IS ALREADY BREEDING
ELEVATED CAPE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS OF 500-1000 J/KG PER THE RUC
MESOANALYSIS. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER...RICHER GULF MOISTURE
CURLING ISENTROPICALLY N-NEWD FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR /AIDED BY A
VEERING LLJ/ WILL ONLY IMPROVE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
FROM THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK... ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
4 AND 7 AM. BOOSTED PRE-7 AM POPS TO 50 PERCENT IN CHILDRESS
COUNTY BEFORE TAPERING THESE BACK THEREAFTER AS AMPLE W-NW
STEERING WINDS CARRY THIS CONVECTION FARTHER DOWN THE RED RIVER.
KEPT LOW T-STORM CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TO CLEAR THESE AREAS...THOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR NEXT TO NIL AS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER AIR WEDGES SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON BRISK NELY WINDS.
UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES...POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS STILL
FAVORED TO EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. RAP
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SATURATION AT TIMES FOR SOME
DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-27...SO MENTION OF DRIZZLE WAS
INSERTED FOR THIS FAVORABLY MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. OTHERWISE...
STRATUS IS FAVORED TO THIN AND ERODE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON IN
CONTRAST TO THE NAM WHICH KEEPS LOW CLOUDS INTACT THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PROVIDED THIS CLEARING OCCURS... THE SETUP SHOULD BE MORE
THAN FAVORABLE FOR WELL-BELOW NORMAL LOWS AREA WIDE AS WINDS TREND
LIGHT WITHIN THE CENTER OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE. NUDGED THE
INHERITED LOW TEMPS EVEN LOWER TONIGHT GIVEN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL AND AN OVERALL LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE SINCE LATE FEBRUARY...OUR OFFICE DOES NOT ISSUE
SPRING FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL WE ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LAST
FREEZE DATES WHICH IN THIS CASE ARE STILL SEVERAL WEEKS OUT FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COOL DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY THANKS TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY...EVEN WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
BACK TO ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START
A SLOW WARM UP FOR SUNDAY BEFORE GOING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE DRYLINE PUSHING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND
KICKS IN. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WIND SPEEDS ARE...BUT DRY AIR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINIMUM
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS PRETTY UNCERTAIN IN THE MODELS WITH
THE GFS TRYING TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC KEEP DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES ARE IN STORE FOR THE
VERY END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS THE GFS SWINGS THE CENTER OF A
CLOSED LOW STRAIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH THAT MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER THAN THE GFS. TIMING DIFFERENCES
IMPACT ALL SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS BUT ESPECIALLY POPS...
SUPERBLEND IS INCREASING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE GFS HAS SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND THE GFS IN
COVERAGE...AMOUNTS...AND TIMING...WILL DROP SUPERBLEND POPS QUITE
A BIT TO TAKE THE ECMWF TIMING INTO ACCOUNT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE IMPACTED AS THE GFS DRIVES A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOWER WIND
SPEEDS AND AN AIRMASS NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER THAN THE MIDDLE PART
BUT HOW COOL REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH TIME FOR THE
SYSTEM AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
358 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
AT 3 PM...A BAND OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DODGE CENTER MINNESOTA /WHICH
IS REPORTING SNOW/...WE ARE SEEING MAINLY REPORTS OF RAIN OUT OF
THESE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A BAND OF WEAK
900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THIS BAND EXTENDS WEST TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE COOLS TO LESS THAN 1500 FEET.
WHILE THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE 800 TO
700 MB WEAKENS AND MOVES WEST. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE 900 TO 850
MB LAPSE RATES WEAKEN AND THAT THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL DECREASE.
BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR COBB DATA PRODUCE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AT
KRST. THIS MAINLY DUE TO THIS MODEL PRODUCING SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS OF 20-30 TO 1 WHICH SEEMS VERY UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING THE
MOISTURE AND THE DEPTH OF THE LIFT. IN ADDITION...GROUND
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE 2-INCH
SOIL DEPTH TEMPERATURE AT OUR OFFICE IS CURRENTLY 38F...SO THIS
WILL LIKELY HELP TO CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOW UNLESS THE SNOW
RATES ARE HIGH. AS RESULT...PREFER THE NAM AND GFS COBB DATA WHICH
PRODUCE LITTLE...IF ANY SNOW. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS HAVE UP TO 1
INCH NEAR INTERSTATE 35 WHICH SEEMS REALISTIC SINCE IT IS CLOSER
TO THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT IS LOCATED NEAR THE PIVOT POINT OF THE
800 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS.
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE. AS A
RESULT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP
UNTIL IT REACHES NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. IN OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT THIS
TIME LOOK INITIALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET AND
THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...THE AREA WILL ENTER THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 4C IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO 12C
IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND AND IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM THE PLAINS WILL CONFINE ANY
PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A
LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOOK WARM INITIALLY FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX AND SNOW. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND BY THIS TIME.
THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF...SO IT WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD VERY LITTLE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
WITH UPPER SYSTEM SPINNING OVERHEAD AND VERY SLOW PROGRESSION...
SURFACE FLOW IS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO FORECAST IN THE EARLY
PERIODS. WIND SHIFT AXIS RUNNING FROM THE TWIN CITIES DOWN INTO
CENTRAL WI...BUT ONLY GRADUALLY PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. EVENTUALLY
EXPECT BOTH TAF LOCATIONS TO SWITCH TO NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS.
GENERALLY WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE AREA BUT ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES POINT TO MAINLY SNOW
WITH THESE...DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S. ENOUGH DRY
AIR TO ALLOW ADIABATIC COOLING ALONG THE WEB BULB TEMP TO KEEP IT
PRIMARILY SNOW. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION
AS RATE DOES NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ALREADY WARM
GROUND. BUT COULD BRIEFLY SNOW HARD ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISIBILITY
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TREND AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE BLACK RIVER IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WATER
LEVELS ARE FALLING AT BLACK RIVER FALLS...BUT THE CREST HAS NOT
QUITE REACHED GALESVILLE YET. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF WATER WERE
MOVING THROUGH THE WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN AS WELL. THE YELLOW RIVER
AT NECEDAH WAS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND A CREST NEAR MAJOR LEVEL IS
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER 44000 CFS OUT OF
CASTLE ROCK DAM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
MINOR FLOODING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO MUSCODA THIS WEEKEND. AND AS THE
HIGH WATER ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI MEETS UP WITH THIS WISCONSIN RIVER
VOLUME...EXPECT MINOR FLOODING TO BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR
MCGREGOR AND GUTTENBERG EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. FURTHER UPSTREAM ON
THE MIGHTY MISSISSIPPI...INFLOW FROM THE CHIPPEWA RIVER WILL HELP
WABASHA TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE... AND SOME MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED
THERE. THANKFULLY...NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...MW
HYDROLOGY...MW