Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/17/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
827 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WORK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. A POLAR FRONT
FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
COASTAL STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
825 PM UPDATE...
BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EVEN AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO WAS WORKING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
BEING DRIVEN BY A BURST OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND WILL NOT LAST
TOO LONG IN A GIVEN LOCATION. INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE REGION...BUT BE OFF THE COAST BY 11 PM.
RADAR MOSAIC AND HRRR SHOWING ANOTHER BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS NY STATE THAT MAY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE VERY EARLY HOURS OF THU AM. HOWEVER...MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45
DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
ANOMALOUS H5 CUTOFF LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY. W WINDS WILL PICK UP AS DEEP MIXED
LAYER DEVELOPS WITH THE QUICK ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. H5 TEMPS WILL DROP DURING THE DAY...BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND -30C BY 00Z FRI. STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP
THANKS TO THIS.
THESE AND OTHER FACTORS BLEND TOGETHER TO BRING IN LOW TOPPED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS
EXCEPT THE S COAST. WITH THE COLD POOL...THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL MIXED IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXING HIGH WIND GUSTS
DOWN IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE. NOTING WINDS AT H7-H5 ON ORDER OF
30-40 KT WITH SOME UP TO 50 KT ABOVE H5. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE
WHETHER THE DEEP MIXING WILL BE REALIZED. MAY NOT SEE ANY THUNDER
BUT COULD STILL SEE THE STRONG WIND GUSTS. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT
WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL MA/NE CT WESTWARD...BUT STILL CAN NOT
RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS FURTHER E. WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE LAND-OCEAN INTERACTION.
WITH THE EXCELLENT MIXING IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL ALSO RESPOND.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER INLAND
TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH WILL
HOLD IN THE LOWER 50S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
ANY LEFTOVER DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE THU
EVENING...THOUGH SOME MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. ANOTHER LOBE OF H5 ENERGY ROTATES SE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT...WITH H5 TEMPS EVEN COLDER /AROUND -34C/. SO...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT W-SW WINDS TO STIR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH EARLY.
TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THE MID TO UPPER 30S WELL INLAND...RANGING TO
THE LOWER 40S AT THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED 415 PM
HIGHLIGHTS...
* POLAR FRONT FRI BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/SQUALLS
* EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHILLY TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY
* DRY WEATHER FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
* SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE SUN INTO MON
WITH POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND/OR SNOW
FRIDAY ...
A POLAR COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/SQUALLS. PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN RESPONSE TO MORNING
SUNSHINE AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL ACT ON LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP
TO 8C/KM. THIS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED GIVEN SUFFICIENT
MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS EXPECTING A MODEST TO STRONG ATMOSPHERIC
RESPONSE YIELDING ROBUST SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS/RAIN SQUALLS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. EVEN A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED
THUNDER.
AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER MILD SO
EXPECT PTYPE TO BE RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT
PTYPE MAY BECOME MIXED WITH GRAUPEL OR EVEN SNOW IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. MILD WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS OF CT/RI AND EASTERN MA...MU40S HIGHER TERRAIN
THEN FALLING INTO THE 30S BY SUNSET AS POST FRONTAL POLAR AIRMASS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT ...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO
-16C AT 12Z SAT ALONG WITH 925 TEMPS COOLING OFF TO -12C! TEMP
ANOMALIES SUGGEST ABOUT -1 STD COLDER THAN NORMAL. BUT WILL FEEL
COLDER GIVEN RECENT WARMTH ALONG WITH GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTING GUSTY NW WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH! WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S
WIND CHILLS WILL BE DOWN INTO TEENS.
SATURDAY ...
A RATHER COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE MORNING
AS NW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OR SO THEN SLACKENING DOWN TO ABOUT
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE U30S HILLY TERRAIN TO L40S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING
BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE. HARD TO BELIEVE SOME PLACES WILL STRUGGLE TO
HIT 40 DEGS DESPITE FULL SUN AND A WELL MIXED BLYR. IN ADDITION
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PROVIDE WIND CHILLS IN THE U20S AND L30S. QUITE
CHILLY FOR MID MARCH ESPECIALLY GIVEN OUR RECENT WARMTH.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP WITH 00Z RUNS FARTHER EAST PROVIDING A
GLANCING BLOW...TO NOW 12Z RUNS INCLUDING GFS/UKMET AND EC MORE OF A
DIRECT HIT WITH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS NEAR /GFS/ OR INSIDE /UKMET +
ECMWF/ THE BENCHMARK. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS/SIMULATIONS WOULD
SUPPORT THE RISK OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT HERE LATE SUN INTO
MON. WHILE A FORECAST AT 114 HR WILL NOT LIKELY VERIFY EXACTLY...
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS FAVORABLE FOR A
COASTAL STORM TO TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
AT LEAST SOME IMPACT. JET ENERGY THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
INDUCING EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. AS THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMES ONSHORE INTO A MORE DATA
RICH AREA OF WESTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MODELS SHOULD
BEGIN TO EXHIBIT BETTER CONSISTENCY. AS OF NOW MUCH OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS LACKED THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WE LIKE TO SEE
BEFORE EXPRESSING ANY FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE AT THIS TIME
ALL WE CAN SAY IS THAT THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN SUPPORTS AN
EAST COAST COASTAL/OCEAN STORM BUT ITS EXACT TRACK AND IMPACTS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THUS STILL TOO EARLY TO FOCUS ON ANY GIVEN
SINGLE FORECAST OUTCOME.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ...
DRYING TREND WITH MODERATING TEMPS TOWARD MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
7 PM UPDATE ...
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN MA/CT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN NOW AND 10 PM. ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA WITH THREAT LESS EASTWARD INTO RI AND
EASTERN MA. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 18Z AND 21Z TAF
UPDATES. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
=====================================================================
THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CIGS LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...THOUGH
NOTING CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM KBOS N TO CAPE ANN REGION
/KBVY-KLWM/. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. LINE OF SHOWERS APPROACHES CT VALLEY AT 23Z-00Z.
LOW RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEAKENING FRONT WILL BRING LINE OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
N OF THE MASS PIKE. CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE EVENING
FROM W-E. IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO W DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA/NE CT THROUGH
02Z-03Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM W-E AFTER 04Z-05Z.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN MAY SEE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS. W WINDS
GUST 20-30 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SCT -SHRA OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KT AND SMALL
HAIL.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANY LEFTOVER SCT -SHRA WILL END...THOUGH MAY LINGER ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. AS COLD AIR WORKS IN...WILL SEE A MIX
WITH -SHSN. W-SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU EVENING.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY ... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH GRAUPEL OR EVEN A
BIT OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED LATE
FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS 20-30 KT SATURDAY
THEN WINDS DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ... LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC DETAILS WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IF A STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COAST TO BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION. GUSTY/STRONG NE WINDS
POSSIBLE TOO.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 00Z...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING.
HIGH E-SE SWELLS CONTINUE AS WELL...UP TO 9 FT ON THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS. EXTENDED SMALL CRAFTS.
TONIGHT...LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W-SW BUT REMAIN
LIGHT. LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT ON
THE OPEN WATERS...THEN SHOULD BRIEFLY SUBSIDE. SCT SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02Z-03Z
ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS.
THURSDAY...HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS ON SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...MAINLY BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY FOR THU
AFTERNOON AS WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT. SEAS ON THE OPEN
WATERS WILL BE AROUND 5-6 FT SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL BE UP THERE AS
WELL.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FT. MAY SEE SOME
GUSTS ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS CLOSE TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GALE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED.
SATURDAY ... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO YIELD SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY ... DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY BRING
SMALL CRAFT SEAS/WINDS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW RISK OF
GALES DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST IT TRACKS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-
233-234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1041 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPSTATE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIN HIGH
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH MOISTURE
ALOFT LIMITING NET RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST SPC HRRR STILL INDICATING
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF AGS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA...BUT OVERALL MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO
BE RATHER LIMITED. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOOK
REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT BUT KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM DISPLAYED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT DIMINISHES FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SOME SREF
MEMBERS HAVE MORE MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHWARD. HAVE FORECASTED LOW
POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART FRIDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND INLAND EXTENT
OF MOISTURE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE FORECASTED THE HIGHEST POP
DURING THAT TIME. IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS INDICATE LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST OF ALL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...WITH
DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING MAINLY CIRRUS
CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NOW
MORE WESTERLY...AND SHOULD TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND DRIER DEWPOINTS SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS BY
MORNING WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT FOG.
TAFS WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW NEAR TERM MODELS DO
SHOW A LOW PROBABILITY OF A FEW SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. ANY AMOUNT WOULD BE
EXTREMELY LIGHT DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...AFFECTING AGS/DNL
AND MAYBE OGB...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN ANY
TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1003 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A KSOP-KCDN-KCAE-KAGS-
KMCN LINE PER 17/01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND IS ON TARGET TO CLEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER BY SUNRISE THURSDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED WEST TO EAST. THE
PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT REMAIN SLIM
GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS IN
PLACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM. THE
DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR WAS WELL SAMPLED BY THE 17/00Z KCHS RAOB WITH
LOW RH NOTED BELOW 400 HPA. ALL AVAILABLE MESOSCALE MODEL DATA
SUPPORT A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES
AFTER SUNRISE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR...AS SOME UPPER
JET DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY.
THE SLOW EAST/SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A
FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL
EMPIRE. THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS TOO
COOL THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS NECESSITATES YET ANOTHER
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOWS WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
COLLETON-DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
PARTS OF LONG-MCINTOSH AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE H3R AND RAP SHOW TEMPERATURES
GOING NO LOWER THAN 70 DEGREES IN THE SAVANNAH-LUDOWICI-DARIEN
CORRIDOR. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED WITH THE
NEXT NEAR TERM UPDATE CYCLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT LINGERS ALONG THE SC/GA COAST THURSDAY. ONLY WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTICITY ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...MOST OF WHICH WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE DO SEE SOME WEAK UPPER JET
COUPLING THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ENHANCE MID-LEVEL LIFT. PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25" ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED BY THE
GUIDANCE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WE INCLUDED 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER OUR SOUTHERN THIRD FOR THURSDAY. DESPITE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW IN LOW-LEVELS AND
CONSIDERABLE THICKNESSES...WE ARE SHOWING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
80S.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN. THIS WILL REDUCE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
AREA...CONFINING THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND CONTINUED CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS
TO THE MID 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE REGION FALLS UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130 KT UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN GULF. FRIDAY NIGHT THE
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER SHORTWAVES...THEN A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE COAST.
PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.25-1.50" ON SATURDAY AND AN AREA OF FAIRLY
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST QPF WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS CLOSER TO THE PATH OF THE
SURFACE LOW...ALL AREAS MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. WE
INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT TO THE NORTH WITH 60 PERCENT TO THE
SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED BY COLD ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL OF THE ACTION IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY ON
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE LOW WILL
PULL AWAY AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LOOK TO MODERATE BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. ACCORDINGLY...WINDS
WILL DROP TO MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 1
TO 2 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT LINGERS
ALONG THE COAST. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL ENHANCE
THE GRADIENT AND BRIEFLY PRODUCE 10-20 KT NORTH WINDS OVER THE
WATERS. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION THE SEAS WILL ONLY BUILD TO A
HIGH OF 4 FT OVER OUTER PORTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SURGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE MIXING PROFILES
OVER THE WATERS... ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE CLOSEST TO THE GULF STREAM.
WE COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA AND THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES..
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
744 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPSTATE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT
THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH
MOISTURE ALOFT LIMITING NET RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP
PREVENT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST SPC HRRR
INDICATING SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF AGS
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA...BUT OVERALL MOISTURE
DOES APPEAR TO BE RATHER LIMITED. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT BUT KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM DISPLAYED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT DIMINISHES FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SOME SREF
MEMBERS HAVE MORE MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHWARD. HAVE FORECASTED LOW
POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART FRIDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND INLAND EXTENT
OF MOISTURE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE FORECASTED THE HIGHEST POP
DURING THAT TIME. IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS INDICATE LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO NW BETWEEN 10PM AND MIDNIGHT.
CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF AND AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE
LATER PORTION OF THE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST THAT THE NEW AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT FOG. HIGH
AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVER THE TAF
SITES AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER AN
EXITING RIDGE.
THE HRRR INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHEAST CSRA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER DRY AIR AND THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING
IMPACTING AGS/DNL. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
741 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT.
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH MOISTURE ALOFT LIMITING NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT BUT KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM DISPLAYED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT DIMINISHES FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SOME SREF
MEMBERS HAVE MORE MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHWARD. HAVE FORECASTED LOW
POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART FRIDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND INLAND EXTENT
OF MOISTURE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE FORECASTED THE HIGHEST POP
DURING THAT TIME. IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS INDICATE LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO NW BETWEEN 10PM AND MIDNIGHT.
CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF AND AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE
LATER PORTION OF THE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST THAT THE NEW AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT FOG. HIGH
AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVER THE TAF
SITES AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER AN
EXITING RIDGE.
THE HRRR INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHEAST CSRA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER DRY AIR AND THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING
IMPACTING AGS/DNL. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
326 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...
320 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PROPAGATING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY PER GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS FOR MID-
MARCH... CHARACTERIZED BY AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS OF 55-60 INTO CENTRAL IL/WEST CENTRAL IN INCLUDING
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE WFO LOT CWA. WHILE SURFACE FLOW IS BACKED
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM
FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROXIMATELY NEAR A GALESBURG-PONTIAC-
LAFAYETTE LINE. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE WAS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL IL...WITH
SPC RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH CIN WEAKENING TO 100 J/KG OR LESS. DYNAMICS ARE BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AS WELL WITH APPROACH OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL WAVE...WITH 60 KT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AND
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 200-300 M2S2 IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTS INCREASING CU
FIELD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI...WHERE STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND HAS BEEN INDICATED BY HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. ENVIRONMENT
PRIMED FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND RECENT SPC MCD INDICATES
TORNADO WATCH LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN THE ENHANCED
RISK AREA TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. BASED ON HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...EVOLUTION STILL APPEARS TO BE INITIATION 22-23Z TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST... WITH STORMS THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 7-8 PM. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELLULAR STORMS
MOVING INTO THE CWA INITIALLY WITH OUR IL COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-80 LIKELY UNDER THE HIGHEST RISK. WIND AND TORNADO
THREAT...WHILE NOT ZERO...WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE CHICAGO METRO WITH SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH GRADUAL DIURNAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST HOWEVER ALL THE WAY TO
LAKE MICHIGAN AND OUR EASTERN CWA COUNTIES AND STORMS ARRIVE IN
THE 9-10 PM TIME FRAME AND LAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN AND ITS STRONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE IL/WI BORDER REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGH-
BASED INSTABILITY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE WISCONSIN
BORDER WITH DEEP ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING IN SPEED AND BECOMING GUSTY TO
40-45 MPH BY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
VERY DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 500-600 MB WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO/ABOVE 50 MPH BY MIDDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN IL... WITH THE GRADIENT A BIT WEAKER TO THE SOUTH. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE STRONGER GFS WINDS MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WI...THOUGH
ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS TO MAINTAIN OUR HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS
COUNTIES GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80. HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
(SUSTAINED 40 MPH /GUSTS 58 MPH). WITH GUSTY WINDS MODELS ARE
LIKELY TOO QUICK TO DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY
SEE WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
WITH GOOD MIXING...HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
TONIGHT...MID TO UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
244 PM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A STEADY COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE REVERSING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COLDEST DAY TIME TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF THAT. THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY ALLOWING
THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE U.P.
OF MICHIGAN TO QUICKLY WEAKEN. THIS WILL LEAVE A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. WEAK ENERGY WILL
MOVE DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH WHILE A DEEPER UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS QUEBEC WHICH THEN RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
AID IN THE SHARPENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMNANT FROM THE OLD
GREAT LAKES LOW THEN DRAW IT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY
SATURDAY. A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR EARLY BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S CHANGES ANYTHING TO RAIN INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SIGNAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. THE UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS EAST INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS SHARP RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW AS THE TROUGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND RIDGING CONTINUES WEST. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW PERHAPS LEADING
TO MINIMAL POPS CHANCES MONDAY. THE RIDGING WILL SHARPEN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE AT PRECIP. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. MID NEXT WEEK AND
A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST BUT DETAILS DIFFER QUITE A BIT. A
TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME DOES LOOK
FAVORED FOR MID WEEK.
MDB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER..
441 PM CDT
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF
50 TO 55 MPH. WITH SUN EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
POSSIBLY ALL DAY IN PLACES...MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY TO DIP
TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. RAINFALL TONIGHT IN ADDITION TO EXISTING FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 15 PERCENT SHOULD PREVENT TRUE RED
FLAG CRITERIA...BUT BREEZY AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AT
LEAST BE NEAR THRESHOLDS...AND WITH THE DEEPER MIXING 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES COULD NEAR 10 PERCENT IF AREAS...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH OF THE CHICAGO AREA...ESCAPE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
MTF/KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
A STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WILL
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SEVERAL WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THESE INCLUDE: CONTINUED LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS...A PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH STRONG
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH A PEEK OUT THE
WINDOW...INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS IS TRYING TO BREAK SOME. AS A RESULT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A
PERIOD OF IMPROVED CIGS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING...IT IS LIKELY THAT CIGS AND VSBYS MAY AGAIN
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO FAVOR
INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...THERE IS CURRENTLY A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. THESE STORMS
COULD IMPACT KRFD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL BE THIS EVENING. THE
CURRENT TIMING OF LATE EVENING AFTER 03 UTC THIS EVENING STILL
APPEARS TO BE GOOD FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES...AND AN HOUR OR TWO
SOONER AT KRFD. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARILY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS AS THE MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 07
UTC TONIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE
AREA. CIGS WILL IMPROVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...BUT EXPECT
THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST
UP IN THE 45 TO 50 KT RANGE AT TIMES AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CDT
A STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WILL
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS (35 KT GALES)
LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY.
THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND. LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH DOWN
THE LAKE...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...7 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
HIGH WIND WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022...7 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
IN...HIGH WIND WATCH...INZ001-INZ002...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
WEDNESDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741...7 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM
WEDNESDAY.
STORM WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM WEDNESDAY TO
10 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...7 PM
TUESDAY TO 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
321 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...
320 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PROPAGATING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY PER GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS FOR MID-
MARCH... CHARACTERIZED BY AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS OF 55-60 INTO CENTRAL IL/WEST CENTRAL IN INCLUDING
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE WFO LOT CWA. WHILE SURFACE FLOW IS BACKED
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM
FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROXIMATELY NEAR A GALESBURG-PONTIAC-
LAFAYETTE LINE. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE WAS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL IL...WITH
SPC RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH CIN WEAKENING TO 100 J/KG OR LESS. DYNAMICS ARE BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AS WELL WITH APPROACH OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL WAVE...WITH 60 KT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AND
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 200-300 M2S2 IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTS INCREASING CU
FIELD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI...WHERE STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND HAS BEEN INDICATED BY HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. ENVIRONMENT
PRIMED FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND RECENT SPC MCD INDICATES
TORNADO WATCH LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN THE ENHANCED
RISK AREA TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. BASED ON HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...EVOLUTION STILL APPEARS TO BE INITIATION 22-23Z TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST... WITH STORMS THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 7-8 PM. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELLAR STORMS MOVING
INTO THE CWA INITIALLY WITH OUR IL COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80
LIKELY UNDER THE HIGHEST RISK. WIND AND TORNADO THREAT...WHILE NOT
ZERO...WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE CHICAGO
METRO WITH SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
GRADUAL DIURNAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL EXIST HOWEVER ALL THE WAY TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND OUR
EASTERN CWA COUNTIES AND STORMS ARRIVE IN THE 9-10 PM TIME FRAME
AND LAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN AND ITS STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE
IL/WI BORDER REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH DEEP ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING IN SPEED AND BECOMING GUSTY TO
40-45 MPH BY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
VERY DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 500-600 MB WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO/ABOVE 50 MPH BY MIDDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN IL... WITH THE GRADIENT A BIT WEAKER TO THE SOUTH. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE STRONGER GFS WINDS MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WI...THOUGH
ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS TO MAINTAIN OUR HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS
COUNTIES GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80. HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
(SUSTAINED 40 MPH /GUSTS 58 MPH). WITH GUSTY WINDS MODELS ARE
LIKELY TOO QUICK TO DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY
SEE WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
WITH GOOD MIXING...HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
TONIGHT...MID TO UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
244 PM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A STEADY COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE REVERSING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COLDEST DAY TIME TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF THAT. THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY ALLOWING
THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE U.P.
OF MICHIGAN TO QUICKLY WEAKEN. THIS WILL LEAVE A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. WEAK ENERGY WILL
MOVE DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH WHILE A DEEPER UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS QUEBEC WHICH THEN RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
AID IN THE SHARPENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMNANT FROM THE OLD
GREAT LAKES LOW THEN DRAW IT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY
SATURDAY. A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR EARLY BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S CHANGES ANYTHING TO RAIN INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SIGNAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. THE UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS EAST INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS SHARP RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW AS THE TROUGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND RIDGING CONTINUES WEST. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW PERHAPS LEADING
TO MINIMAL POPS CHANCES MONDAY. THE RIDGING WILL SHARPEN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE AT PRECIP. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. MID NEXT WEEK AND
A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST BUT DETAILS DIFFER QUITE A BIT. A
TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME DOES LOOK
FAVORED FOR MID WEEK.
MDB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
441 AM CDT
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AND GUSTS
OF 50 MPH IF NOT SPORADICALLY HIGHER. WITH SUN EXPECTED FOR AT
LEAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND POSSIBLY ALL DAY IN PLACES...MIXING MAY
ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY TO DIP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 15 PERCENT SHOULD PREVENT TRUE RED FLAG
CRITERIA...BUT BREEZY AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AT LEAST BE
NEAR THRESHOLDS.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
A STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WILL
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SEVERAL WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THESE INCLUDE: CONTINUED LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS...A PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH STRONG
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH A PEEK OUT THE
WINDOW...INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS IS TRYING TO BREAK SOME. AS A RESULT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A
PERIOD OF IMPROVED CIGS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING...IT IS LIKELY THAT CIGS AND VSBYS MAY AGAIN
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO FAVOR
INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...THERE IS CURRENTLY A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. THESE STORMS
COULD IMPACT KRFD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL BE THIS EVENING. THE
CURRENT TIMING OF LATE EVENING AFTER 03 UTC THIS EVENING STILL
APPEARS TO BE GOOD FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES...AND AN HOUR OR TWO
SOONER AT KRFD. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARILY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS AS THE MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 07
UTC TONIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE
AREA. CIGS WILL IMPROVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...BUT EXPECT
THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST
UP IN THE 45 TO 50 KT RANGE AT TIMES AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CDT
A STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WILL
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS (35 KT GALES)
LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY.
THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND. LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH DOWN
THE LAKE...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...7 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
HIGH WIND WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022...7 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
IN...HIGH WIND WATCH...INZ001-INZ002...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
WEDNESDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741...7 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM
WEDNESDAY.
STORM WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM WEDNESDAY TO
10 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...7 PM
TUESDAY TO 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
314 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 997mb low over northeast Missouri,
with a warm front extending E/SE across south-central Illinois.
Despite the presence of this forcing, convection has not yet
materialized across Missouri or Illinois as the atmosphere remains
capped. The short-wave trough that will eventually approach from
the west and break the cap is still well to the west across western
Kansas/Nebraska, so think cap will hold firm through the remainder
of the afternoon. HRRR has been consistently showing scattered
thunderstorms developing along the trailing cold front across
eastern Missouri after 21z/4pm...with the activity then tracking
E/NE into central Illinois this evening. 4km WRF-NMM has similar
timing, and both high-res models suggest the storms will quickly
shift out of the KILX CWA by midnight. Given strong directional low-
level wind shear in the vicinity of the warm front, the main mode of
any convection that develops later today will be supercellular. As
such, damaging wind gusts and large hail remain the primary
threats...although a few tornadoes will also be possible mainly
along and northwest of the I-55 corridor. Have therefore included
likely PoPs and mentioned severe weather across the western half of
the CWA this evening accordingly. Any convection that fires will
rapidly push eastward out of the area by midnight, with only a few
lingering rain showers across the NW from the Peoria area northward
after midnight. Once the storms pass, strong/gusty southwesterly
winds will develop, with forecast soundings and numeric guidance
suggesting gusts of 30-35 mph. Overnight lows will drop into the
middle to upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Deepening surface low pressure forecast to push into central
Wisconsin by 12z Wednesday with a tight pressure gradient over most
of the forecast area during the day. Forecast soundings showing 40-
45 kts just off the surface tomorrow mid morning through the
afternoon hours so wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph look likely over
most of the area, except south of the Interstate 70 corridor. As
a result, a wind advisory will be issued for a good portion of
the forecast area for tomorrow. Areas north of I-74 will get close
to some warning criteria winds, especially if the wrap around
moisture/clouds stay to our north like most of the models suggest.
Despite the passage of the cold front this evening, temperatures
will be mild again on Wednesday, although not as warm as today.
Look for highs to climb into the 60s most areas.
The strong surface low will begin to fill across the lower Great
Lakes on Thursday as upper level energy is transferred over to the
East Coast. This will result in an elongated surface trof from the
new low off New England west through the southern Great Lakes.
This feature will gradually slide south bringing a more extensive
cloud band south with it and the threat for some light precip
starting on Friday night and continuing on and off into Saturday
night. We may see a mix of rain and snow across our north Friday
night into early Saturday morning, and possibly again late
Saturday night into Sunday. No accumulations are expected with any
snow that does occur across our north.
The upper trof will gradually work its way southeast across the
Great Lakes on Sunday and Monday with rather cool temperatures
prevailing, at least compared to what we have had over the past
couple of days. However, with the trof being more progressive, the
cool down will not last long as most medium range models suggest
the trof will shift off to our east by early next week with more
of a zonal flow developing over the Midwest resulting in a gradual
moderating trend through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Main aviation forecast concern continues to be potential
convection this evening. Latest model runs are in fairly good
agreement with timing of storms, although the HRRR remains
slightly faster than the 4km NAM and 4km WRF-NMM. Taking a
consensus of solutions, have included a TEMPO group for thunder
and MVFR ceilings at KPIA/KSPI between 00z and 02z...then further
east to KBMI/KDEC between 01z and 03z. Given uncertainties in
areal coverage further east, have only mentioned VCTS at KCMI
after 02z. Once the storms pass, NAM forecast soundings suggest a
period of MVFR ceilings before skies clear overnight into
Wednesday morning. Winds will initially be from the southeast with
gusts to around 25kt this afternoon, then will veer to the
southwest after frontal passage this evening. As the pressure
gradient tightens, very strong W/SW winds gusting to between 30
and 35kt will be likely on Wednesday.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1243 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Latest models continue to delay the onset of strong to severe
convection later today. 12z NAM tracks 998mb low currently south
of Kansas City into southeast Iowa by 00z. Forecast soundings show
the airmass ahead of the system will remain strongly capped
through the afternoon, suppressing any storm development within
the warm sector. As a short-wave trough evident on 14z/9am water
vapor imagery over eastern Colorado approaches from the west, the
cap will gradually erode toward evening. At that time, scattered
thunderstorms will develop along an advancing cold front. While
the NAM shows little or no convection along the front, higher-res
models such as the HRRR show scattered storms forming across
northern Missouri by late afternoon, then tracking northeastward
across the northern half of the KILX CWA this evening. Damaging
winds and large hail remain the primary threats...although a few
tornadoes will be possible near the low track primarily northwest
of the I-55 corridor. Have updated the forecast this morning to
remove PoPs everywhere except the far north where a small cluster
of storms has been moving across Knox, northern Peoria, and Stark
counties. Have also gone largely dry through the afternoon, with
low chance PoPs arriving after 22z along/west of the Illinois
River. Also reduced sky cover to go with a partly to mostly sunny
forecast with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A 997 mb surface low over south central KS early this morning
will deepen as a shortwave over the central Rockies tracks
eastward into the Plains. The low looks to move into west central
IL by evening...although some track differences are noted in model
guidance by this time. A warm front will likely extend from
southeast Iowa into Central Illinois...roughly along the I-74
corridor. Sfc-6 km bulk shear should easily exceed 50 kts while
models suggest 1500-2500 J/KG MUCAPE develops across central IL.
Especially in the vicinity of the warm front and toward the
surface low pressure...this could bring a threat for rotating
storms and a slight tornado threat in the late afternoon and
evening. In addition...steep mid-level lapse rates will bring a
threat of large hail and damaging winds. Models have slowed down
somewhat in sweeping a cold front across central IL mainly 00z to
06z this evening now...bringing this best chance for a coherent
line of thunderstorms. SPC has central Illinois from around I-70
northward outlooked for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms as a
result. A slight chance of thunderstorms will move into areas west
of the Illinois River by daybreak as a cluster of storms currently
over NW Missouri/SW Iowa moves eastward. This disturbance will
continue northeastward into northern Illinois by
afternoon...bringing slight chances for thunderstorms about as far
southward by noon. A bit of a lull toward afternoon as the cold
frontal band approaches again for the late afternoon...spreading a
chance for thunderstorms throughout much of central Illinois north
of I-70 by evening.
Also in the short term...an area of dense fog has formed in clear
skies and light winds from near Paris to just east of Peoria...and
have issued a dense fog advisory until 9 a.m. To the west...high
cloud cover and strengthening southeast winds have limited
development of fog...and to the northeast a bank of stratus has
limited radiational cooling needed to produce dense fog.
Warm highs today should reach the low to mid 70s as warm moist
air advects in from the south ahead of the approaching low center.
Winds in the morning expected to be around 5-15 mph from the
southeast...increasing to 15-20 mph by afternoon with gusts to the
25-30 mph range.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
00Z forecast models continue slower trend with deepening surface low
pressure ejecting ne from eastern KS into west central IL by 00Z/7
pm today and into WI by 12Z/7 am Wed and deepening to 985 mb or
stronger by then. A warm front to be near I-74 late this afternoon
and evening, while a sharp cold front accelerates eastward across IL
this during this evening with scattered to broken line of convection
expected ahead of front. SPC day1 outlook has shifted slight risk of
severe storms nw of I-70 where 15% risk of damaging wind gusts and
large hail and 2-5% risk of tornadoes, with the 5% risk from I-55
nw. Convection to develop over ne MO/se IA and west central IL late
this afternoon and track eastward across central and eastern IL
during the evening. Most of this convection should be east of
central IL overnight with isolated showers along and north of a
Rushville to Bloomington line after midnight. Models have increased
wind speeds overnight and Wed and northern areas may be reaching
wind advisory criteria with sustained winds 30 mph and wind gusts 40-
45 mph. A High wind watch has been posted over northern IL overnight
and Wed where even higher winds expected.
Strong cutoff 500 mb low deepening to 525-530 dm as it lifts ne
across WI and into upper MI during Wed along with associated strong
surface low pressure near this upper level low to give the strong
WSW winds over IL overnight and Wed. Shower chances to stay north of
central IL Wed and Thu closer to strong low pressure system hanging
around the western Great Lakes region. Mostly sunny skies
expectedWed. Temperatures about 10 degrees cooler on Wed than today,
but still a good 10 degrees above normal for mid March. Highs Wed
mostly in the lower 60s, ranging from near 60F nw of IL river to mid
60s se of I-70. Lows Wed night in the upper 30s north of I-72 and
lower 40s south of I-72. A weak short elongated short wave to track
east across the mid MS river valley Wed night and bring slight
chances of light rain showers to areas se of I-70 in southeast IL.
Still windy on Thu with west winds 20-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph
with partly to mostly sunny skies, more clouds from I-74 north.
Temps cool a bit more on Thu with highs ranging from lower 50s from
Peoria and Bloomington north to near 60F south of I-70.
Strong upper level low shifts east across the Great Lakes Thu night
while weak upper level ridge into IL on Friday keeps it dry with
lighter WNW winds diminishing to 8-15 mph. Highs Friday upper 40s
northern CWA and lower 50s southern half of CWA which is starting
to get a bit below normal for our area.
Extended forecast models continue to dig a deep upper level trof se
across the Midwest Fri night and Saturday and into the OH/TN river
valleys on Sunday. Stronger surface low pressure and heavier qpf in
over the southeast states, with lighter qpf over IL Fri night into
Sat evening. Some light qpf could still linger over eastern IL
Sunday. Temperature profiles support a chance of light snow with
ligth rain overnight Friday night and Sat morning and again Sat
night and Sunday morning if it lingers that long. Temps to be a bit
cooler than normal this weekend with highs in the mid to upper 40s
Sat/Sun and lows near freezing Sat and Sun nights.
Upper level trof shifts away from IL on Sunday night and Monday
while upper level ridge to shift east across the plains toward the
MS river valley by next Tuesday and brings dry weather with temps
starting to moderate into the lower 50s Monday and 55-60F next Tue.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Main aviation forecast concern continues to be potential
convection this evening. Latest model runs are in fairly good
agreement with timing of storms, although the HRRR remains
slightly faster than the 4km NAM and 4km WRF-NMM. Taking a
consensus of solutions, have included a TEMPO group for thunder
and MVFR ceilings at KPIA/KSPI between 00z and 02z...then further
east to KBMI/KDEC between 01z and 03z. Given uncertainties in
areal coverage further east, have only mentioned VCTS at KCMI
after 02z. Once the storms pass, NAM forecast soundings suggest a
period of MVFR ceilings before skies clear overnight into
Wednesday morning. Winds will initially be from the southeast with
gusts to around 25kt this afternoon, then will veer to the
southwest after frontal passage this evening. As the pressure
gradient tightens, very strong W/SW winds gusting to between 30
and 35kt will be likely on Wednesday.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
953 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Latest models continue to delay the onset of strong to severe
convection later today. 12z NAM tracks 998mb low currently south
of Kansas City into southeast Iowa by 00z. Forecast soundings show
the airmass ahead of the system will remain strongly capped
through the afternoon, suppressing any storm development within
the warm sector. As a short-wave trough evident on 14z/9am water
vapor imagery over eastern Colorado approaches from the west, the
cap will gradually erode toward evening. At that time, scattered
thunderstorms will develop along an advancing cold front. While
the NAM shows little or no convection along the front, higher-res
models such as the HRRR show scattered storms forming across
northern Missouri by late afternoon, then tracking northeastward
across the northern half of the KILX CWA this evening. Damaging
winds and large hail remain the primary threats...although a few
tornadoes will be possible near the low track primarily northwest
of the I-55 corridor. Have updated the forecast this morning to
remove PoPs everywhere except the far north where a small cluster
of storms has been moving across Knox, northern Peoria, and Stark
counties. Have also gone largely dry through the afternoon, with
low chance PoPs arriving after 22z along/west of the Illinois
River. Also reduced sky cover to go with a partly to mostly sunny
forecast with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A 997 mb surface low over south central KS early this morning
will deepen as a shortwave over the central Rockies tracks
eastward into the Plains. The low looks to move into west central
IL by evening...although some track differences are noted in model
guidance by this time. A warm front will likely extend from
southeast Iowa into Central Illinois...roughly along the I-74
corridor. Sfc-6 km bulk shear should easily exceed 50 kts while
models suggest 1500-2500 J/KG MUCAPE develops across central IL.
Especially in the vicinity of the warm front and toward the
surface low pressure...this could bring a threat for rotating
storms and a slight tornado threat in the late afternoon and
evening. In addition...steep mid-level lapse rates will bring a
threat of large hail and damaging winds. Models have slowed down
somewhat in sweeping a cold front across central IL mainly 00z to
06z this evening now...bringing this best chance for a coherent
line of thunderstorms. SPC has central Illinois from around I-70
northward outlooked for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms as a
result. A slight chance of thunderstorms will move into areas west
of the Illinois River by daybreak as a cluster of storms currently
over NW Missouri/SW Iowa moves eastward. This disturbance will
continue northeastward into northern Illinois by
afternoon...bringing slight chances for thunderstorms about as far
southward by noon. A bit of a lull toward afternoon as the cold
frontal band approaches again for the late afternoon...spreading a
chance for thunderstorms throughout much of central Illinois north
of I-70 by evening.
Also in the short term...an area of dense fog has formed in clear
skies and light winds from near Paris to just east of Peoria...and
have issued a dense fog advisory until 9 a.m. To the west...high
cloud cover and strengthening southeast winds have limited
development of fog...and to the northeast a bank of stratus has
limited radiational cooling needed to produce dense fog.
Warm highs today should reach the low to mid 70s as warm moist
air advects in from the south ahead of the approaching low center.
Winds in the morning expected to be around 5-15 mph from the
southeast...increasing to 15-20 mph by afternoon with gusts to the
25-30 mph range.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
00Z forecast models continue slower trend with deepening surface low
pressure ejecting ne from eastern KS into west central IL by 00Z/7
pm today and into WI by 12Z/7 am Wed and deepening to 985 mb or
stronger by then. A warm front to be near I-74 late this afternoon
and evening, while a sharp cold front accelerates eastward across IL
this during this evening with scattered to broken line of convection
expected ahead of front. SPC day1 outlook has shifted slight risk of
severe storms nw of I-70 where 15% risk of damaging wind gusts and
large hail and 2-5% risk of tornadoes, with the 5% risk from I-55
nw. Convection to develop over ne MO/se IA and west central IL late
this afternoon and track eastward across central and eastern IL
during the evening. Most of this convection should be east of
central IL overnight with isolated showers along and north of a
Rushville to Bloomington line after midnight. Models have increased
wind speeds overnight and Wed and northern areas may be reaching
wind advisory criteria with sustained winds 30 mph and wind gusts 40-
45 mph. A High wind watch has been posted over northern IL overnight
and Wed where even higher winds expected.
Strong cutoff 500 mb low deepening to 525-530 dm as it lifts ne
across WI and into upper MI during Wed along with associated strong
surface low pressure near this upper level low to give the strong
WSW winds over IL overnight and Wed. Shower chances to stay north of
central IL Wed and Thu closer to strong low pressure system hanging
around the western Great Lakes region. Mostly sunny skies
expectedWed. Temperatures about 10 degrees cooler on Wed than today,
but still a good 10 degrees above normal for mid March. Highs Wed
mostly in the lower 60s, ranging from near 60F nw of IL river to mid
60s se of I-70. Lows Wed night in the upper 30s north of I-72 and
lower 40s south of I-72. A weak short elongated short wave to track
east across the mid MS river valley Wed night and bring slight
chances of light rain showers to areas se of I-70 in southeast IL.
Still windy on Thu with west winds 20-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph
with partly to mostly sunny skies, more clouds from I-74 north.
Temps cool a bit more on Thu with highs ranging from lower 50s from
Peoria and Bloomington north to near 60F south of I-70.
Strong upper level low shifts east across the Great Lakes Thu night
while weak upper level ridge into IL on Friday keeps it dry with
lighter WNW winds diminishing to 8-15 mph. Highs Friday upper 40s
northern CWA and lower 50s southern half of CWA which is starting
to get a bit below normal for our area.
Extended forecast models continue to dig a deep upper level trof se
across the Midwest Fri night and Saturday and into the OH/TN river
valleys on Sunday. Stronger surface low pressure and heavier qpf in
over the southeast states, with lighter qpf over IL Fri night into
Sat evening. Some light qpf could still linger over eastern IL
Sunday. Temperature profiles support a chance of light snow with
ligth rain overnight Friday night and Sat morning and again Sat
night and Sunday morning if it lingers that long. Temps to be a bit
cooler than normal this weekend with highs in the mid to upper 40s
Sat/Sun and lows near freezing Sat and Sun nights.
Upper level trof shifts away from IL on Sunday night and Monday
while upper level ridge to shift east across the plains toward the
MS river valley by next Tuesday and brings dry weather with temps
starting to moderate into the lower 50s Monday and 55-60F next Tue.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Dense morning fog quickly dissipating this morning...with another
hour or so of LIFR vsby possible at KCMI and a few hours of
occasional MVFR vsby elsewhere. Morning thunderstorms headed
toward areas just north of KPIA-KBMI this morning and have
included a few hours of VCTS...however likelihood of arriving at
these terminals still low at this time. After this...VFR
conditions expected much of the day as capped thermodynamic
profiles likely to prevent thunderstorm development until late
afternoon or early evening as a cold front sweeps through the
area. Have included VCTS and MVFR cigs in late afternoon/evening
for most likely time period for thunderstorms. Winds SE 15-18 kts
with gusts to around 25 kts today...becoming SW overnight after
passage of a cold front.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1157 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
Tricky overnight cloud/fog forecast across central and southeast
Illinois. Skies were steadily clearing from the west earlier this
evening. However, the clearing has slowed considerably, with the
cloud edge nearly along the I-74 corridor. Temperature/dew point
spreads across the area are quite small, and little to no sunshine
was available to help dry the wet ground from yesterday. These
factors, combined with light winds should allow stratus and/or fog
to develop once again tonight. The potential is certainly there
for dense fog to develop once again, but do not plan an advisory
at this time. Increasing southerly flow by late tonight ahead of
tomorrow`s storm system should help to blow the remaining low
cloud deck out of the area, and mix the low levels up a bit and
hopefully minimize the fog threat.
Going forecast is in pretty good shape. Already made adjustments
for less clouds in most areas. Most other tweaks were minor.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
19z/2pm visible satellite imagery continues to show cloudy skies
across central Illinois: however, holes are developing in the
overcast...particularly upstream across Iowa/Missouri. Low-level
flow remains weak, but this drier air will eventually filter into
the area this evening, resulting in a partial clearing trend. With
some clearing taking place and winds staying quite light, think fog
will re-develop tonight. Mitigating factors for widespread dense
fog will be partial cloud cover and increasing southeasterly winds
after midnight. HRRR is showing fog forming across much of the area
this evening, then becoming locally dense after midnight. Think
this is a bit overdone, so will only carry patchy fog at this time.
Most high-res models are suggesting scattered convection will
develop overnight across northern Missouri into Iowa as a
strengthening low-level jet noses into that area. Some of this
activity could spill into west-central Illinois toward dawn, so have
included low chance PoPs for showers/thunder along and west of the
Illinois River well after midnight. Overnight lows will be in the
lower to middle 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
Forecast concern continues to revolve around the the threat for
severe weather over parts of central through east central Illinois
tomorrow afternoon and evening as a rather potent upper wave
pushes into the Midwest.
Looks as though scattered precip chances tomorrow will be tied to
the surface and 850 mb warm front in the morning, mostly across
the west and north, and then along the cold front during the mid
to late afternoon and early evening hours as the cap weakens due
to increasing low level convergence forecast along the accelerating
cold front. The GFS continues to be the fast model, although
recent runs have trended a bit slower tomorrow afternoon, while
the ECMWF is deepest and slowest with the surface and upper level
features. Due to the slower movement in the cold frontal passage
and the cap holding on a bit longer than previously forecast, it
appears the main time frame for the threat for scattered storms
across the forecast area will be roughly 4pm until 10 pm. The NAM
and ECMWF indicates the better low level shear profiles for any
persistent rotating storms capable of large hail and isolated
tornadoes will be along and north of I-74, while low level wind
profiles become more unidirectional further south by late in the
afternoon. However, the further south you go, the stronger the
capping inversion is, but believe at least widely scattered storms
will be possible as you head into southeast IL late tomorrow
afternoon through the evening hours. All models indicate steep low
and mid level lapse rates with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching
8 C/KM tomorrow afternoon and evening suggesting the threat for
large hail along with damaging wind gusts, especially if the mode
transitions to a line of storms with time late in the afternoon
into the evening hours.
Models sweep the storms well off to our east by 03z with lingering
low chance POPs over the far north during the overnight hours
along with gusty winds as the deepening surface low shifts slowly
off to our north. Windy but mild conditions are expected Wednesday
before we see a gradual transition to cooler weather by the end of
the week and next weekend where afternoon temperatures will lower
into the upper 40s to lower 50s. As far as precip is concerned in
the extended, several weak waves are forecast to rotate south
around the deep upper low to our north which may produce some
isolated light showers with the main threat of rain coming along
over the weekend as the upper low to our north repositions itself
a bit further south over the Midwest. This will bring about
mentionable rain chances in the forecast on Saturday into Saturday
night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
Patchy dense fog has developed across parts of central Illinois
this evening, including some of the local TAF sites. This trend
should continue for much of the night, although it may be
mitigated to some degree by increasing upper-level cloudiness and
increasing southeasterly winds. Any fog/stratus should burn off
pretty quickly Tuesday morning. Then, attention turns to a strong
cold front later Tuesday and the associated threat for
thunderstorms. Much of the pre-frontal airmass should be capped
and may preclude much in terms of storm development. The capping
breaks the earliest and the dynamics supporting storm development
are best at KPIA & KBMI early in the evening. Included a VCTS for
these sites, but feel the anticipated coverage is too low to
mention in the other local TAF sites at this time.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND SOME COULD BE SEVERE. LATER IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING SW MISSOURI. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW
ACROSS SRN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS TO SRN INDIANA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS NRN AND EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...LIFTING NORTHWARD. RADAR WAS QUIET. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FOR TONIGHT PUSHING INTO THE DAKOTAS. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S.
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS MORNING...BUT INCREASE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
AS CU DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EXPECTED. BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS
TO ARRIVE AFT 00Z...THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND...BUT GFS SEEMS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH LATE. TRENDED AWAY FROM GFS
THEN.
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
STILL GOOD SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...BUT INSTABILITY IS MORE IN
QUESTION GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY. AGREE WITH STORM PREDICTION CENTER
FORECAST OF MOVING THE SLIGHT RISK NORTH AND WEST.
STRONG FORCING WITH UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET SHOULD LEAD TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODEL
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SHOW MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
SOUTH 2/3 OF THE AREA...SO WENT CHANCE POPS THERE.
ALL RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST. A
WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH STAYING TO THE NORTH.
OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN IS WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT LOOK TO MIX DOWN SOME WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH /AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER PER SOME MODEL BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS/ ARE POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT AND MENTION IT IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO START NEXT WEEK.
00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL BE
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FRIDAY. THEN...THINGS CHANGE AS THE
GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO BRING AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE AREA THEN THE
ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...BOTH MODELS HAVE QPF OVER CENTRAL THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DOES THE REGIONAL BLEND. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES GOING. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A
MIX AND OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE GROUND
WILL BE TOO WARM FOR EVEN A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...HOWEVER. AFTER
THAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 151500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
FOG REALLY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH NOW AND LOWER STRATUS HAS LARGELY
BROKEN UP AS WELL...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TERMINALS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. EXPECT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ALONG
WITH CU FORMATION.
12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AT BMG AND HUF PER LAMP MOS AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MISSOURI VALLEY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...THICK STRATUS
DECK...NEAR AND NORTH OF IND-LAF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO NEAR 3K FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THAT LINE WITH MVFR CEILINGS APPROACHING 3K
FEET. ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT IND AND LAF BY 13Z.
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IS NOT GREAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS IS
GOOD. COULD ALSO SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 21Z FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES IN. MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGEST
ANY STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY AT HUF AND LAF
AND LATER STILL AT IND AND BMG. WILL BRING IN A PROB30 MVFR THUNDER
GROUP 01Z-07Z. WILL ALSO GO WITH CONVECTIVE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40
KNOTS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH 05Z-09Z.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 13Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND SOME COULD BE SEVERE. LATER IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING SW MISSOURI. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW
ACROSS SRN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS TO SRN INDIANA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS NRN AND EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...LIFTING NORTHWARD. RADAR WAS QUIET. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FOR TONIGHT PUSHING INTO THE DAKOTAS. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S.
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS MORNING...BUT INCREASE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
AS CU DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EXPECTED. BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS
TO ARRIVE AFT 00Z...THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND...BUT GFS SEEMS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH LATE. TRENDED AWAY FROM GFS
THEN.
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
STILL GOOD SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...BUT INSTABILITY IS MORE IN
QUESTION GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY. AGREE WITH STORM PREDICTION CENTER
FORECAST OF MOVING THE SLIGHT RISK NORTH AND WEST.
STRONG FORCING WITH UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET SHOULD LEAD TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODEL
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SHOW MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
SOUTH 2/3 OF THE AREA...SO WENT CHANCE POPS THERE.
ALL RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST. A
WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH STAYING TO THE NORTH.
OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN IS WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT LOOK TO MIX DOWN SOME WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH /AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER PER SOME MODEL BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS/ ARE POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT AND MENTION IT IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO START NEXT WEEK.
00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL BE
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FRIDAY. THEN...THINGS CHANGE AS THE
GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO BRING AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE AREA THEN THE
ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...BOTH MODELS HAVE QPF OVER CENTRAL THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DOES THE REGIONAL BLEND. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES GOING. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A
MIX AND OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE GROUND
WILL BE TOO WARM FOR EVEN A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...HOWEVER. AFTER
THAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AT BMG AND HUF PER LAMP MOS AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MISSOURI VALLEY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...THICK STRATUS
DECK...NEAR AND NORTH OF IND-LAF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO NEAR 3K FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THAT LINE WITH MVFR CEILINGS APPROACHING 3K
FEET. ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT IND AND LAF BY 13Z.
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IS NOT GREAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS IS
GOOD. COULD ALSO SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 21Z FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES IN. MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGEST
ANY STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY AT HUF AND LAF
AND LATER STILL AT IND AND BMG. WILL BRING IN A PROB30 MVFR THUNDER
GROUP 01Z-07Z. WILL ALSO GO WITH CONVECTIVE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40
KNOTS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH 05Z-09Z.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 13Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND SOME COULD BE SEVERE. LATER IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
FIRST PROBLEM TO DEAL WITH IS FOG. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR NOW.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THOUGH SHOW HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE
FOG...AND SATELLITE SHOWS INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN. THUS FOR
NOW WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADVISORY AND CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.
BELIEVE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME DURING THE MORNING...BUT
MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
TODAY. WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY.
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT DO
NOT FEEL THAT THIS FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO GO WITH POPS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPRINKLES
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY NORTH.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM AND APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND MOST MODELS ARE DRY THROUGH 00Z. COMPROMISED TO
KEEP CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN QUESTION TODAY WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF WARM
FRONT AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH CLOUD COVER. IF CLOUDS BREAK AND ALLOW
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LATE DAY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
LARGE PARTS OF THE AREA ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER WOULD RATHER ERR ON
COOLER/PESSIMISTIC SIDE. WENT WITH A BLEND WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN UPPER
60S NORTHEAST TO MID 70S SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND...BUT GFS SEEMS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH LATE. TRENDED AWAY FROM GFS
THEN.
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
STILL GOOD SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...BUT INSTABILITY IS MORE IN
QUESTION GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY. AGREE WITH STORM PREDICTION CENTER
FORECAST OF MOVING THE SLIGHT RISK NORTH AND WEST.
STRONG FORCING WITH UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET SHOULD LEAD TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODEL
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SHOW MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
SOUTH 2/3 OF THE AREA...SO WENT CHANCE POPS THERE.
ALL RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST. A
WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH STAYING TO THE NORTH.
OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN IS WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT LOOK TO MIX DOWN SOME WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH /AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER PER SOME MODEL BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS/ ARE POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT AND MENTION IT IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO START NEXT WEEK.
00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL BE
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FRIDAY. THEN...THINGS CHANGE AS THE
GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO BRING AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE AREA THEN THE
ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...BOTH MODELS HAVE QPF OVER CENTRAL THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DOES THE REGIONAL BLEND. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES GOING. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A
MIX AND OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE GROUND
WILL BE TOO WARM FOR EVEN A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...HOWEVER. AFTER
THAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AT BMG AND HUF PER LAMP MOS AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MISSOURI VALLEY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...THICK STRATUS
DECK...NEAR AND NORTH OF IND-LAF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO NEAR 3K FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THAT LINE WITH MVFR CEILINGS APPROACHING 3K
FEET. ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT IND AND LAF BY 13Z.
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IS NOT GREAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS IS
GOOD. COULD ALSO SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 21Z FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES IN. MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGEST
ANY STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY AT HUF AND LAF
AND LATER STILL AT IND AND BMG. WILL BRING IN A PROB30 MVFR THUNDER
GROUP 01Z-07Z. WILL ALSO GO WITH CONVECTIVE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40
KNOTS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH 05Z-09Z.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 13Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
405 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
FOR TODAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE STATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF KANSAS
INTO MISSOURI THEN INTO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA BY 00Z. THE LOW IS
CURRENTLY PART OF A BROADER SURFACE LOW WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN IOWA WHICH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND THE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH A BIT OF A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST BEFORE LIFTING OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR EAST. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING AND STRONG FORCING AND INSTABILITY I HAD TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE
WORDING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE OF
SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE THREAT SHIFTS INTO FAR
EASTERN IOWA. BEHIND THIS...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH COLD
ADVECTION WORKING IN...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT BUT I DO INCREASE WINDS
ACROSS THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO SPEEDS OF
20G30KTS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
EXTREMELY ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING HOWEVER BY THAT
TIME...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST AS
THE SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. A DEFORMATION AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE SFC
LOW. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE EFFICIENT WITH PWAT VALUES OVER
1 INCH THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO OVER 8
KFT...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR MARCH.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE THE TRAILING
WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
DEEPENS RAPIDLY. A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN EXCESS OF 75 UBARS/KM WILL
DEVELOP BY 06Z. IN ADDITION...A RIBBON OF 850 MB WINDS WILL REACH
70-80 KTS. POTENTIAL IS THERE TO MIX A PORTION OF THESE WINDS DOWN
TO THE SFC AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND MIXING INCREASES
OVERNIGHT WITH MID LEVEL COOLING WHILE SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR STEADY. HAVE CONCERNS THAT SFC WINDS MAY REACH 60+ MPH AFTER
06Z THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS THE PERIOD OF PEAK WINDS.
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL FURTHER
DEEPEN THE MIXING TO NEAR 600-500 MB. MIXED LAYER WINDS WILL
RELAX A BIT DURING THIS TIME BUT REMAIN IN THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE.
THEREFORE THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SUSPECT THAT MAY NEED TO FURTHER
EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE WITH FUTURE UPDATES BUT THIS IS A GOOD
START. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIXING WILL
HELP DRIVE GUSTS AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AGAIN APPROACHING 40
TO 50 MPH.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE A BIT TO THE NORTH BEFORE A LOBE
DROPS SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT INTO THE STATE AND WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE CARRYING A WARM BIAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES. SOUNDING LOW LEVEL MIXING
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKS EXAGGERATED AND OVERDONE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL
REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND KEEP THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND. A
RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL AND WARMER FLOW WILL FOLLOW BY THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...15/06Z
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
LATEST HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVERNIGHT
WITH TIMING ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS B/T 8-11Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
SUB-SEVERE ANTICIPATED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. MVFR
AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME.
SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE THE CAA
DEVELOPS AND BRINGS SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BETTER POTENTIAL HERE FOR IFR CIGS. STRONG WINDS DEVELOP TOWARDS
00Z WEDNESDAY AND INCREASED WIND GUSTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1207 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
MAIN CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THUNDER THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED STORMS WITH ISOLATED SVR HAIL. STRATUS HAS HELD ON MOST
AREAS THROUGH NOON BUT NOW GIVING WAY TO MIXED LAYER CU ALONG WITH
SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS. WE REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A NEW
WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN PLAINS CROSSING KANSAS TONIGHT.
BY 12Z THE SFC LOW SHOULD BE NEARING NORTHEAST KS WITH A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA.
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET AN EXPANDING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS LIKELY/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT NEAR THE IOWA
NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER NEAR 06Z AND EXPAND NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH
CAPE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER. THE EURO FORECASTS 600 TO 1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE BY 06Z WITH INCREASING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TO 35 TO
45KT BY 12Z SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE
HAIL AND POTENTIALLY SOME ISOLATED SVR REPORTS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
CLOSER TO THE NOSE OF THE JET OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST AREAS.
LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
NEGATIVELY-TILTED H300 TROUGH AND 140KT JET STREAK WILL DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE A
SURFACE LOW TO EJECT E/NE ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPEN INTO A
APPROXIMATELY 990 MB CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/EC HAVE BUDGED LITTLE FROM THEIR
PREVIOUS RESPECTIVE CAMPS ON THE EVOLUTION AND POSITION OF THE
LOW/TROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE DOMESTIC MODELS TAKE A WEAKER LOW
ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER WHILE THE EC RAPIDLY DEEPENS THE
LOW AND LIFTS IT ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA. GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM...IT IS NOT TOO SURPRISING THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE SURFACE FEATURES LESS THAN 24 HOURS OUT
AND OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TOMORROW IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
CONTINUED THE GOING TREND OF TAKING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH LINGERING CHANCES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD THE EC SOLUTION PAN
OUT...PRECIP COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW PLACEMENT WILL ALSO DICTATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. A NARROW WINDOW OF SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE 18 TO 21Z TIMEFRAME IN THE
EASTERN CWA WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. DEEP
SHEAR PROFILES OF 40 TO 60 KTS AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
LOW COULD YIELD MULTIPLE MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE THREAT
WINDOW IS SMALL AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AT 40 KTS
AND OUT OF THE CWA.
A REX BLOCK WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADA BY MIDWEEK WITH COOL CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN INFLUX OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WINDS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A DOWNRIGHT IMPRESSIVE MIXED LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES UP TO 500 TO 700 MB. WHILE SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG OWING TO A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE GUSTS OVER 40 KTS.
AN INVERTED SURFACE TO H850 TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AND A
NIGHTTIME RAIN/SNOW MIX TO MOSTLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
AN APPROACHING PV ANOMALY WILL HELP FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
ON SATURDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...15/06Z
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
LATEST HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVERNIGHT
WITH TIMING ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS B/T 8-11Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
SUB-SEVERE ANTICIPATED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. MVFR
AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME.
SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE THE CAA
DEVELOPS AND BRINGS SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BETTER POTENTIAL HERE FOR IFR CIGS. STRONG WINDS DEVELOP TOWARDS
00Z WEDNESDAY AND INCREASED WIND GUSTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1138 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
18Z SFC DATA HAS AN IMPLIED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KSUX TO NEAR
KEVV. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND DOWN TO THE GULF.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
SOME HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
HAS ALLOWED SOME BRIEF PEEKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS
SHOW THE SHOWERS NEAR KCID ARE RAPIDLY FALLING APART. THUS DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET.
AFTER SUNSET...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING.
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DUBUQUE TO GRINNELL.
INTERNALLY...MOST OF THE MODELS AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP ARE
SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BY MIDNIGHT...THE MODELS LOOSELY AGREE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE MO/KS BORDER UP INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL THEN MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
AND ARRIVE IN EASTERN IOWA PRIOR TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THIS COMPLEX
WILL STRATIFY OUT DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA BUT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT. THE
POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL THAT
COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.
THE DECAYING COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
THAT WILL PRODUCE BOUNDARIES FOR NEW CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.
DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT AND BOUNDARIES FROM THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL ALLOW NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP.
SEVERAL FACTORS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS ON
TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW EACH COMES TOGETHER. TWO IMPORTANT
FACTORS WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING.
THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...12Z RUN MODELS SHEAR OUT VIGOROUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE ACRS WI INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS THIS
PERIOD...BUT IN VARYING STRENGTHS. WILL WALK OUT LINGERING STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS OUT OF NORTHWESTERN IL BY
01Z...IF THEY DON/T EXIT EARLIER THAN THAT. THEN THE MODELS
DIVERGE...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST DYNAMICAL IN
HANDLING THE LOW WITH THE SFC FEATURE DEEPENING TO UNDER 990 MB ACTS
CENTRAL WI BY WED MORNING. THE EURO PRODUCES STRONG WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND THUS IS ADVERTISING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TUE EVENING IN MUCH OF EST CENTRAL IA NORTH OF
I80 AND WEST OF THE MS RVR. IT THEN CONTINUES WRAP-AROUND ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 WITH ANOTHER 0.30-0.60+ OF AN INCH OF QPF NORTH OF THE
HWY 30 CORRIDOR FROM 06Z-12Z WED...WITH PARAMETERS COOLING TO NEAR
RAIN-SNOW MIX OR ALL WET SNOW ALONG HWY 20 LATE TUE NIGHT. MOST OF
THE OTHER 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT NEARLY SO BULLISH AND AFTER SOME
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TUE EVENING BEHIND THE MAIN EXITING CONVECTIVE
LINE...THEY TRANSITION TO MAINLY DRY AFTER 06Z WED OR CLIPPING
NORTHWESTERN IL WITH SHOWERS/RAIN THROUGH 09Z WED BEFORE SWEEPING
OFF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL TAKE A BLEND THAT PRODUCES
A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF WRAP AROUND RAIN
ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE DVN CWA BY 12Z WED
MORNING.
WED THE CWA TO CONTINUE TO BE IN TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT OFF DEEP
CYCLONE IN EASTERN WI...WEST WINDS MAY GUST WELL OVER 30 MPH AND NOT
BE THAT FAR OFF ADVISORY LEVELS FOR SUSTAINED SPEEDS ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I80. WITH PLENTY OF DRIED VEGETATION AND AFTERNOON RH/S
DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...A GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER MAY EVOLVE BY WED AFTERNOON. A LOW CHC FOR MORE WRAP AROUND
LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 20 ON WED. IF WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MAINTAINS IN THE NORTHERN CWA INTO WED NIGHT-EARLY THU MORNING BY
BLOCKED GRT LKS CYCLONE...SOME PRECIP TYPE ISSUES MAY HAVE TO BE
DEALT WITH. BUT MORE MODELS ARE DRY WED NIGHT THAN ARE ADVERTISING
THIS POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... BLOCKED GRT LKS CYCLONE WILL LOOK TO FILL
SOME...THEN DRIFT BACK SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER TROF DOWN THE WESTERN
GRT LKS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. IF THIS PANS OUT...THEN POSSIBLY
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FEATURE BY THU
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80. EXPECT IF THIS
OCCURS... ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO DIURNALLY WANE THU NIGHT. BUT IF
THEY PERSIST LONGER INTO THE NIGHT THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...PRECIP
TYPE ISSUES WILL POPS UP AGAIN WITH RAIN-SNOW MIX OR EVEN ALL WET
SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80. THE SOUTHWARD DRIFTING TROF
WILL KEEP THE CHC FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS GOING FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NEW 12Z ECMWF AS BACKED OFF OF THIS
POTENTIAL AND IS MAINLY DRY INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. AGAIN ANY
LINGERING NOCTURNAL PRECIP MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO GO INTO A WINTRY MIX
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80. HIGHS THU IN THE MID 40S NORTH...TO THE MID
50S IN THE SOUTH...THU NIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY CLOUD DECREASE. FRI HIGHS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF
DEVELOPING COLD CORE UPPER TROF THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
HELD WELL DOWN IN THE 40S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SCTRD SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE UNDER THIS FEATURE ON SAT AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD VERTICAL PROFILES JUST ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS IS DRY ON SUNDAY WITH
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
SOME COLD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RVR. WILL KEEP A DRY
FCST FOR NOW THROUGH MON. LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SHOW A WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE LEADING EDGE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
LEAD CLIPPER WITH A PRECIP WING EITHER MON OR EARLY TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
VFR TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
NEXT 12-18 HOURS. AFTER 15/11Z...CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS UNTIL 15/16Z. THEN...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL 15/21Z THEN AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH 16/02Z. AFTER
16/02Z...RAIN AND STORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND WINDY WEST WIND
AT CID/DBQ BEHIND STRONG LOW. AT MLI/BRL...VFR OR MOSTLY VFR WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND ALSO BREEZY TO WINDY WITH A WESTERLY WIND.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
606 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING AS THE RH VALUES ARE INCREASING AND
WIND SPEEDS ARE DECREASING AS SUNSET APPROACHES THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS NW FLOW EXTENDING FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK
NORTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE CU AND
A FEW SPRINKLES NEAR OUR CWA. DUE TO A SUB CLOUD LAYER OF TD
DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 20-30F THROUGH 10 KFT AGL THIS HAS MAINLY
BEEN VIRGA. IF WE WERE TO SEE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPDRAFT FORM WE
COULD SEE EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES AID PRECIP REACHING
GROUND...POSSIBLY AS A FEW SNOW FLAKES. I KEPT SPRINKLE MENTION
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HELP STABILIZE
CONDITIONS AND PUT AN END TO ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY MEASURABLE IS LOW DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY LAYER.
TONIGHT...LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT COULD INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS COLD ENOUGH
THAT WITH LIGHT WINDS LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS OUR CWA.
IF WE WEE MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
TEENS.
THURSDAY...MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER BELOW
700MB/10KFT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL. STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT WE SHOULD HAVE
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LIMITING
VERTICAL UPDRAFTS. I LEFT SPRINKLE MENTION OUT AND KEPT POPS SILENT.
DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORTS GOOD MIXING
TOMORROW...HOWEVER AS LEE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THE AIR MASS MAY
NOT SEE AS MUCH OF A RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE WILL PROBABLY
SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S (SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY). WINDS ALOFT AREA ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN...SO DESPITE GOOD MIXING WE LIKELY WONT SEE RFW CONDITIONS
DESPITE RH VALUES DROPPING TO 15 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
UPPER SYSTEM THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THEN TRACK EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND.
A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA THU-FRI AS THE UPPER LOW GETS MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE N
PLAINS. A 95 KT JET STREAK WILL BE ORIENTED FROM WESTERN MT TO
NORTHERN CO INTO NORTHERN KANSAS WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE A 12-18
HOUR PERIOD OF UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS AN INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY EVENING...GRADUALLY
MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW AS IT OVERSPREADS NORTHERN KANSAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW. AT THIS TIME THE THINKING IS
INITIAL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
ACCUMULATING GIVEN AVERAGE SOIL TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 40S AND
LIGHTER SNOW RATES...BUT AS HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES OCCUR
FRIDAY MORNING THE FORECAST REFLECTS ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S IN
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK TO MOVE OUT WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY RECOVERING TO THE MIDDLE 40S AND UP TO
AROUND 60 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT EACH LOCATION...BUT WILL DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS
THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND TURN WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH BREAKS FREE OF THE
FRONT RANGE OF NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO AND MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1020 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...EAST TO WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT HAS NOW RETREATED TO
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM JUST NORTH
OF LUFKIN TO JUST NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA. RADAR ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP
AT THIS TIME. NEW NAM AND LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY DOWN
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AREA-WIDE. WITH FRONT NOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HAVE INCLUDED OUR CENTRAL LOUISIANA/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS COUNTIES AND PARISHES WITH PATCHY FOG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE MIDDLE UNITED
STATES WITH A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OVER
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WAS USHERING IN
SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO INTO
THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAD STALLED LATE THIS MORNING
AND WAS NOW RETROGRADING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS COULD BE SEEN COVERING MUCH
OF THE COASTAL REGION WHILE THINNING OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. WHILE
NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
THE RADAR WAS CLEAR THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GYRATE BACK
AND FORTH. SO...FIRST OFF EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. DO NOT EXPECT
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT. WE COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LIKE WE SAW THIS MORNING IN LAFAYETTE AND
PARTS OF CALCASIEU PARISH AGAIN AFTER 06Z. DEPENDING ON
WINDS...LOCATION OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS...WILL BE MONITORING FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO ANYTHING BUT
PATCHY FOG AT THE MOMENT. GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS GOING INSANE ON POPS
ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. I WILL BE HONEST...I`M NOT SEEING
YET UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT GUIDANCE POPS. HOWEVER...MY
MOM DID NOT RAISE NO FOOL EITHER...I WILL HEDGE UP IN CASE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS OFF THE SURFACE UP TO 850 MB WHICH MAY
ENHANCE LIFT RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. I ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS AREA EITHER. THE NAM HAD A 700MB DECENT VORT
LOBE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GYRATE THURSDAY AND WITH MORE
IMPULSED SLIDING IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WE COULD SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING BY ON SATURDAY DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN
PROBABLY TAPERING OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LOWER
WITH THIS NEXT FRONT AND THEREFORE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY
ADDITIONAL AGGRAVATION OF THE CURRENT FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY AND
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY
MORNING IN THE 40S AND PERHAPS UPPER 30`S IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
STABLE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK.
MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DAILY WITH RAIN CHANCES IMPROVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ON
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 57 75 59 73 / 20 40 40 50
LCH 64 78 64 76 / 20 40 40 50
LFT 64 78 64 76 / 20 50 50 50
BPT 65 78 65 77 / 20 40 40 50
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1050 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY HOWEVER THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW STALLS... AND A FEW
SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY AND COOL WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
WINDS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT.
WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE WIND HEADLINES. OVER THE LAKE WE REPLACED
THE GALE WARNING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ALSO UPDATED POPS
TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
STILL NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT TO ONGOING WIND HEADLINES. SOME GUSTS
NEAR 50 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL WHERE CLEARING
HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLEARING HAS ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN SRN LWR MI
AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 50KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM BEFORE THE MIXING HEIGHTS CRASH.
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR THE
FILLING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER SOME
LIGHT/ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN LWR MI DUE TO
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/COLD ADVECTION AND VORTICTY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE RAIN GIVEN WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WITH SFC FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX OR SNOW... BUT AGAIN ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY... COLD READINGS OF 20-25 ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF
THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCALES UP NORTH LIKE LEOTA COULD EVEN DIP TO
10 TO 15.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
COOLER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO OOZE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. H8 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SLIGHTLY
COLDER...SO I FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND LOWERED MAX AND MIN TEMPS
OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL ONLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S EACH DAY...AND UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S FOR LOW
TEMPS. WE WILL STAY CHILLY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS BY THEN SHOULD GIVE A NICE BOOST IN TEMPS.
AS FOR PCPN...WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MODELS
SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE/UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH. OTHERWISE IT
APPEARS RATHER QUIET UNTIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THEN UPPER
TROUGHING TAKES PLACE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THIS WILL
CAUSE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT
SHOULD TAKE SHAPE OVER THE LOWER LAKES...AND THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING US SNOW INITIALLY ON
TUESDAY...BUT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION SURGE IS INDICATED. SO THE
SNOW SHOULD SWITCH TO RAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IT
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
HOW THIS DEVELOPS. IF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STAYS FARTHER SOUTH WE
MAY SEE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL
APPROACH KMKG THU AFTERNOON AND MAY LOWER THE CEILINGS. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT. THUS THE WIND WILL INCREASE AS THE TEMPERATURE
TRIES TO WARM UP. GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE LOOK POSSIBLE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
GUST OF 35-40 KTS ARE OCCASIONALLY BEING REPORTED AT SOME OF THE
MARINE SITES SO WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING THIS EVENING. GALES
SHOULD END OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW A STRIPE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOCALLY
AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES THAT RUN FROM ALONG THE MUSKEGON-OCEANA
COUNTY LINE...EASTWARD TO JUST ABOUT THE SAGINAW BAY AREA. OUTSIDE
THIS LINE AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED EXPECTATIONS. MORNING
OBSERVATIONS VIA COCORAHS AND VARIOUS OTHER SITES SHOW SLIGHTLY
OVER HALF AN INCH IN THIS SAME TERRITORY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT
GIVEN THE SCENARIO AND NUMBER OF SMALL HAIL REPORTS THESE HIGHER
AMOUNTS MAY BE CONTAMINATED TO SOME DEGREE.
RIVER LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH AND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN RISES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS INCLUDES PERIODS OF LIGHTER AMOUNTS
THAT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MINOR FLOODING BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
850 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY HOWEVER THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW STALLS... AND A FEW
SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY AND COOL WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
WINDS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT.
WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE WIND HEADLINES. OVER THE LAKE WE REPLACED
THE GALE WARNING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ALSO UPDATED POPS
TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
STILL NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT TO ONGOING WIND HEADLINES. SOME GUSTS
NEAR 50 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL WHERE CLEARING
HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLEARING HAS ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN SRN LWR MI
AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 50KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM BEFORE THE MIXING HEIGHTS CRASH.
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR THE
FILLING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER SOME
LIGHT/ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN LWR MI DUE TO
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/COLD ADVECTION AND VORTICTY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE RAIN GIVEN WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WITH SFC FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX OR SNOW... BUT AGAIN ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY... COLD READINGS OF 20-25 ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF
THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCALES UP NORTH LIKE LEOTA COULD EVEN DIP TO
10 TO 15.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
COOLER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO OOZE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. H8 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SLIGHTLY
COLDER...SO I FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND LOWERED MAX AND MIN TEMPS
OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL ONLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S EACH DAY...AND UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S FOR LOW
TEMPS. WE WILL STAY CHILLY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS BY THEN SHOULD GIVE A NICE BOOST IN TEMPS.
AS FOR PCPN...WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MODELS
SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE/UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH. OTHERWISE IT
APPEARS RATHER QUIET UNTIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THEN UPPER
TROUGHING TAKES PLACE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THIS WILL
CAUSE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT
SHOULD TAKE SHAPE OVER THE LOWER LAKES...AND THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING US SNOW INITIALLY ON
TUESDAY...BUT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION SURGE IS INDICATED. SO THE
SNOW SHOULD SWITCH TO RAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IT
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
HOW THIS DEVELOPS. IF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STAYS FARTHER SOUTH WE
MAY SEE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
THE IMPACTFUL WIND WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE MIXING HEIGHTS
DIMINISH. BY 02Z IT LOOKS LIKE ALL SITES SHOULD BE GUSTING UNDER
30 KNOTS. VFR WEATHER TO THEN PREVAIL IN THE FORECAST. SOME
SHOWERS NEAR KORD WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI. THEY DO NOT
LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THU AM...AS
TEMPERATURES START TO CLIMB...BUT OVERALL VALUES WILL END UP ABOUT
20 KNOTS LOWER THAN TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
GUST OF 35-40 KTS ARE OCCASIONALLY BEING REPORTED AT SOME OF THE
MARINE SITES SO WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING THIS EVENING. GALES
SHOULD END OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW A STRIPE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOCALLY
AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES THAT RUN FROM ALONG THE MUSKEGON-OCEANA
COUNTY LINE...EASTWARD TO JUST ABOUT THE SAGINAW BAY AREA. OUTSIDE
THIS LINE AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED EXPECTATIONS. MORNING
OBSERVATIONS VIA COCORAHS AND VARIOUS OTHER SITES SHOW SLIGHTLY
OVER HALF AN INCH IN THIS SAME TERRITORY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT
GIVEN THE SCENARIO AND NUMBER OF SMALL HAIL REPORTS THESE HIGHER
AMOUNTS MAY BE CONTAMINATED TO SOME DEGREE.
RIVER LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH AND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN RISES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS INCLUDES PERIODS OF LIGHTER AMOUNTS
THAT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MINOR FLOODING BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY HOWEVER THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW STALLS... AND A FEW
SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY AND COOL WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
STILL NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT TO ONGOING WIND HEADLINES. SOME GUSTS
NEAR 50 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL WHERE CLEARING
HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLEARING HAS ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN SRN LWR MI
AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 50KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM BEFORE THE MIXING HEIGHTS CRASH.
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR THE
FILLING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER SOME
LIGHT/ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN LWR MI DUE TO
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/COLD ADVECTION AND VORTICTY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE RAIN GIVEN WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WITH SFC FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX OR SNOW... BUT AGAIN ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY... COLD READINGS OF 20-25 ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF
THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCALES UP NORTH LIKE LEOTA COULD EVEN DIP TO
10 TO 15.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
COOLER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO OOZE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. H8 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SLIGHTLY
COLDER...SO I FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND LOWERED MAX AND MIN TEMPS
OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL ONLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S EACH DAY...AND UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S FOR LOW
TEMPS. WE WILL STAY CHILLY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS BY THEN SHOULD GIVE A NICE BOOST IN TEMPS.
AS FOR PCPN...WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MODELS
SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE/UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH. OTHERWISE IT
APPEARS RATHER QUIET UNTIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THEN UPPER
TROUGHING TAKES PLACE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THIS WILL
CAUSE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT
SHOULD TAKE SHAPE OVER THE LOWER LAKES...AND THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING US SNOW INITIALLY ON
TUESDAY...BUT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION SURGE IS INDICATED. SO THE
SNOW SHOULD SWITCH TO RAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IT
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
HOW THIS DEVELOPS. IF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STAYS FARTHER SOUTH WE
MAY SEE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
THE IMPACTFUL WIND WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE MIXING HEIGHTS
DIMINISH. BY 02Z IT LOOKS LIKE ALL SITES SHOULD BE GUSTING UNDER
30 KNOTS. VFR WEATHER TO THEN PREVAIL IN THE FORECAST. SOME
SHOWERS NEAR KORD WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI. THEY DO NOT
LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THU AM...AS
TEMPERATURES START TO CLIMB...BUT OVERALL VALUES WILL END UP ABOUT
20 KNOTS LOWER THAN TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
GUST OF 35-40 KTS ARE OCCASIONALLY BEING REPORTED AT SOME OF THE
MARINE SITES SO WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING THIS EVENING. GALES
SHOULD END OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW A STRIPE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOCALLY
AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES THAT RUN FROM ALONG THE MUSKEGON-OCEANA
COUNTY LINE...EASTWARD TO JUST ABOUT THE SAGINAW BAY AREA. OUTSIDE
THIS LINE AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED EXPECTATIONS. MORNING
OBSERVATIONS VIA COCORAHS AND VARIOUS OTHER SITES SHOW SLIGHTLY
OVER HALF AN INCH IN THIS SAME TERRITORY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT
GIVEN THE SCENARIO AND NUMBER OF SMALL HAIL REPORTS THESE HIGHER
AMOUNTS MAY BE CONTAMINATED TO SOME DEGREE.
RIVER LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH AND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN RISES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS INCLUDES PERIODS OF LIGHTER AMOUNTS
THAT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MINOR FLOODING BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ056>059-
064>067-071>074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
549 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
ALBERTA/SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS WITH WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NW ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SE
FLOW WAS INCREASING OVER NRN WI BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
ERN LAKES AND A TROUGH FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH MN TO LOW PRES OVER
MO. A LINE SHRA EXTENDING FROM NW WI INTO SE WI/NE IL WERE SUPPORTED
BY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 290-
295K SFCS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH HAS RESULTED
IN CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR EAST
WHERE DRY EASTERLY FLOW AND PROXIMITY TO RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FROM MID 50S FAR WEST AND EAST
TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MI SHORE IN SE FLOW.
TONIGHT...AS THE NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LIFTS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
TO NEAR 987 MB OVER SRN WI BY 12Z WED. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN BAND MOVING THROUGH WI SO
HAVE BACKED OFF ON INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL OVER WEST
UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVER THE CENTRAL COUNTIES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN COMBINATION OF INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE IN COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO OVERCOME DRY EASTERLY FLOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WITH THE WAA SURGE...THE PCPN BAND
COMING IN INITIALLY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT. ERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME GUSTY LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
NEAR LAKE MI WHERE GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ALSO KEPT IN
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER OVER SCNTRL UPPER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING AS MODELS STILL SHOW NEG SHOWALTER INDICES AND MUCAPE OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG ON NOSE OF 85H THETA-E AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE FALLING HEAVILY IN THE MORNING SO PRECIP
LOADING COULD ALSO AID IN BRINGING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS TO SFC. AT THE
LEAST...DUE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO NORTH OF DEEPENING
SFC LOW OVER WI DOWN TO LESS THAN 990MB BY 12Z WED...AREAS FAVORED
BY EAST WINDS SUCH AS LK MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY AND ACROSS
KEWEENAW COULD SEE EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH MUCH OF THE DAY.
AS DRY SLOT WITH SYSTEM AND Q-VECT DIV MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
AREAS EXPECT PRECIP TO DIMINISH THERE. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
WESTERN CWA WHERE DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE EXPANDS ON NW SIDE
OF DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND STRONG SFC-H85 LOW MEANDERING OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MI AND DEFORMATION FORCING ALLOWS BAND TO SET UP OVER
THE WEST.
THE OTHER TRICKY PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE PTYPE AND POSSIBILITY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON WED. MODEL SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY NAM...SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMIC COOLING WITH HEAVIER PCPN BAND MOVING THROUGH
WED MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHORTLY AFT 12Z. IF THIS
HAPPENS AS QUICKLY AS NAM INDICATES THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL OF
SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW WED MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI AS THIS HEAVIER BAND MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. RIGHT NOW...SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THERMAL FIELDS/PROFILES HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY PUT IN A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW OVER MAINLY THE KEWEENAW AND WRN MQT/ERN BARAGA COUNTIES WED
MORNING BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF SOME WED AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE FAR WEST LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT WHEN DEFORMATION BAND W/SYSTEM SETS UP IN STRONGLY
CYCLONIC NNE FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 549 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS LOOKS QUITE CHANGEABLE WITH FLOW
TRANSITIONING BETWEEN PERIODS OF MORE PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW AND
PERIODS OF MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PATTERN
WILL BECOME BLOCKY OVER NAMERICA WITH DYNAMIC SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BENEATH A DEVELOPING CLOSED HIGH TO THE N. THIS
BLOCKY PATTERN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE W
COAST FORCES THE CLOSED HIGH TO DISSIPATE UNDER DEVELOPING ERN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. WRN RIDGE THEN WEAKENS WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED
SPLIT FLOW REDEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THE MDT/HVY PCPN OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...A DRIER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME -SHSN AND EVEN LES ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE AND COLDER AIR DIVING SE INTO THE ERN TROF LATER THIS
WEEKEND. FARTHER OUT...NAEFS 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES BLO NORMAL
TEMPS BECOMING FAVORED W-E ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL CANADA WHILE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS BECOME FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THIS SUGGESTS
A POTENTIAL ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS SHORTWAVES TRACK ALONG A
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. SO...THE UPPER
LAKES MAY BE AFFECTED BY BOUTS OF PCPN EVERY 2-3 DAYS...BEGINNING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THE MONTH.
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME SNOW EVENTS TO OCCUR.
BEGINNING WED NIGHT/THU...MIDLEVEL LOW AND SFC LOW CENTERED VCNTY OF
SCNTRL UPPER MI WED EVENING WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT
BEFORE QUICKLY UNRAVELING AND DRIFTING S AND E ON THU. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FCST AREA.
TO THE N AND W OF THE LOW...UPSLOPE NE TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
ENHANCE PCPN...ESPECIALLY SO OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED. THE FAR W IS ALSO CENTERED
UNDER AN AREA OF LINGERING DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS...AND
THAT FORCING IS QUITE STRONG THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL TEMPS
AREN`T QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT IT WOULDN`T TAKE
MUCH COOLING TO RESULT IN CONSIDERABLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS INCLUDING THE 09Z
SREF...THE NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN ARE ON THE HIGHER END OF THE QPF
SPECTRUM...SHOWING AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH WED NIGHT OVER FAR WRN UPPER
MI. USED A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 1/3RD TO
2/3RDS OF AN INCH. WITH SNOW RATIOS PROBABLY NOT HIGHER THAN AROUND
10 TO 1...SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3-6 INCHES WED NIGHT
OVER GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES AND 2-4 INTO HOUGHTON COUNTY. ADVY
HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THOSE 3 COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH TO
SUBADVY LEVELS IN THE BORDERING COUNTIES...WITH EVEN LIGHTER AMOUNTS
DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FARTHER E.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH THU AS ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND
DRIFTS AND E. MIGHT SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE W IN THE MORNING.
PATCHY -SN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THU NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ TO DEVELOP IN THE NNE WIND UPSLOPE
AREAS AS MOISTURE DEPTH SHRINKS TO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE TEMPS IN THE
MOIST LAYER ARE AROUND -10C. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...KEPT MENTION OUT
OF FCST FOR NOW.
CLOSED MID LEVEL HIGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER MANITOBA THU WEAKENS AND
DRIFTS SE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI/SAT...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FRI/FRI NIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH PRES
OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BEGAN TO TREND MIN TEMPS DOWN A BIT...
TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS.
SHORTWAVE DROPS SE THRU THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT
TIMING/TRACK OF SHORTWAVE IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON WITH THE GFS MORE
AMPLIFIED/FARTHER S WITH SHORTWAVE TRACK THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...
RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE OF -SHSN SUN ACROSS THE AREA AS DAYTIME
HEATING/MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME TYPE OF -SHSN REGIME. FOR NOW...LEANED FCST AWAY FROM THE
GFS. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -15C OR SO BEHIND WAVE...EXPECT
SOME LIGHT LES TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SUN INTO MON.
THE FIRST IN WHAT COULD BE A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS MAY ARRIVE IN THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE TUE OR
WED. WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS
BASED ON RECENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS...ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED
ON TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES WILL LOWER TO IFR AND POSSIBLY
LIFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS RAIN BEGINS TO
LIFT INTO AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW WED MORNING WITH STRONG LIFT AND COOLING FROM THE SYSTEM AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO LOWERING VSBYS IN SNOW BY LATE WED MORNING
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW. ALSO
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT KCMX LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN STRONG EAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON WHERE E-NE GALES OF
35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND MOVES E AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 5
PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-003-009-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ265-
266.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT /11
AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
428 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
ALBERTA/SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS WITH WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NW ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SE
FLOW WAS INCREASING OVER NRN WI BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
ERN LAKES AND A TROUGH FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH MN TO LOW PRES OVER
MO. A LINE SHRA EXTENDING FROM NW WI INTO SE WI/NE IL WERE SUPPORTED
BY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 290-
295K SFCS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH HAS RESULTED
IN CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR EAST
WHERE DRY EASTERLY FLOW AND PROXIMITY TO RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FROM MID 50S FAR WEST AND EAST
TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MI SHORE IN SE FLOW.
TONIGHT...AS THE NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LIFTS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
TO NEAR 987 MB OVER SRN WI BY 12Z WED. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN BAND MOVING THROUGH WI SO
HAVE BACKED OFF ON INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL OVER WEST
UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVER THE CENTRAL COUNTIES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN COMBINATION OF INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE IN COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO OVERCOME DRY EASTERLY FLOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WITH THE WAA SURGE...THE PCPN BAND
COMING IN INITIALLY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT. ERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME GUSTY LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
NEAR LAKE MI WHERE GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ALSO KEPT IN
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER OVER SCNTRL UPPER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING AS MODELS STILL SHOW NEG SHOWALTER INDICES AND MUCAPE OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG ON NOSE OF 85H THETA-E AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE FALLING HEAVILY IN THE MORNING SO PRECIP
LOADING COULD ALSO AID IN BRINGING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS TO SFC. AT THE
LEAST...DUE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO NORTH OF DEEPENING
SFC LOW OVER WI DOWN TO LESS THAN 990MB BY 12Z WED...AREAS FAVORED
BY EAST WINDS SUCH AS LK MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY AND ACROSS
KEWEENAW COULD SEE EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH MUCH OF THE DAY.
AS DRY SLOT WITH SYSTEM AND Q-VECT DIV MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
AREAS EXPECT PRECIP TO DIMINISH THERE. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
WESTERN CWA WHERE DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE EXPANDS ON NW SIDE
OF DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND STRONG SFC-H85 LOW MEANDERING OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MI AND DEFORMATION FORCING ALLOWS BAND TO SET UP OVER
THE WEST.
THE OTHER TRICKY PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE PTYPE AND POSSIBILITY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON WED. MODEL SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY NAM...SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMIC COOLING WITH HEAVIER PCPN BAND MOVING THROUGH
WED MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHORTLY AFT 12Z. IF THIS
HAPPENS AS QUICKLY AS NAM INDICATES THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL OF
SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW WED MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI AS THIS HEAVIER BAND MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. RIGHT NOW...SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THERMAL FIELDS/PROFILES HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY PUT IN A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW OVER MAINLY THE KEWEENAW AND WRN MQT/ERN BARAGA COUNTIES WED
MORNING BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF SOME WED AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE FAR WEST LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT WHEN DEFORMATION BAND W/SYSTEM SETS UP IN STRONGLY
CYCLONIC NNE FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
...EXTENT OF SNOW LATER WED INTO THU IS MAIN FOCUS...
TROUGH ALOFT WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING WESTERN CANADA TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LEAD SHORTWAVE/PV
ANAMOLY CROSSES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WED MORNING. OTHER MAIN SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SHEDS SOME ENERGY TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE AND THIS DEEPENS A TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED INTO THU. AT THE SFC...MAIN SFC LOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WILL BE OVER WESTERN WI WITH WARM FRONT CNTRL WI TO CNTRL
LOWER MI. LOW ONLY DEEPENS ACROSS WI AS TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS. SOLN
IS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN LOOKED LIKE 1-2 DAYS AGO WHEN THE LOW WAS
SUPPOSED TO LIFT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND ON TO THE EAST. SOLN DOES
LOOK LIKE THE ECMWF IDEA FM A COUPLE DAYS AGO....ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW POSITION AT 12Z WED.
SURGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
IF NOT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SHARP H85 THETA-
E RIDGE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION. SI/S STAYING MOSTLY
ABOVE 0C AND AXIS OF ELEVATED CAPE STAYING OVER LOWER MI SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF TSRA ON WED MORNING. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SCNTRL. THOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION LEADS TO
STABLE TEMP PROFILE SFC-H7...CONCERNED WITH 50-60 KT H9-H8 WINDS
THAT COULD BE MIXED AT LEAST PARTIALLY TO SFC IN STRONGER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS OR IF THERE ARE TSRA. RAIN WILL BE FALLING HEAVILY SO
PRECIP LOADING COULD ALSO AID IN BRINGING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS TO SFC.
AT THE LEAST...DUE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO NORTH OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER WI DOWN TO LESS THAN 990MB BY 12Z WED...AREAS
FAVORED BY EAST WINDS SUCH AS LK MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY AND
ACROSS KEWEENAW COULD SEE EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS THETA-E RIDGE GETS PINCHED OFF INTO WED AFTN WELL EAST
OF UPR MICHIGAN...FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL DIMINISH. ONLY EXCEPTION
IS OVER WESTERN CWA WHERE DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGERNCE EXPANDS
ON NW SIDE OF DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND STRONG SFC-H85 LOW MEANDERING
OVER NORTHERN WI AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
PTYPE REMAINS A CHALLENGE. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY...BUT EXTENT OF MODERATE OR EVEN HEAVY SNOW IS NOT AS
CERTAIN. KEWEENAW STILL IN LINE TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW ON
WED AS IS FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN VCNTY OF KIWD. THEMAL PROFILE
DIFFERENCES ARE MOST NOTABLE ON WED MORNING. NAM SHOWS H85 TEMPS +5C
WHILE THE GFS IS -4C THOUGH NOT SATURATED AT THAT POINT. NAM
CONTINUES TO LINGER WARM AIR ALOFT H8-H7 LEADING TO SLEET OR FZRA
WHILE GFS COOLS SUFFICIENTLY FOR SNOW. DRYING ALOFT MAY CUT OUT OR
AT LEAST DIMINISH PRECIP IF NAM IS RIGHT BY MIDDAY. GEM-REGIONAL
LOOKS MORE LIKE THE NAM AND WPC PROBABILISTIC FORCASTS WOULD SUPPORT
GREATER CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER FAR WEST CWA LATER WED
AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. AFTER ALL WAS SET AND DONE...AT LEAST WITH THIS
TURN IN THE MODELS...HAVE MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER FAR WEST AND HIGHER TERAIN OF KEWEENAW WED THROUGH THU.
HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY...BUT SINCE MOST OF SNOW ACCUMS
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL WED NIGHT AND THU...GOING TO GO WITH SPS ATTM.
LATEST WPC PROBABILITIES INDICATE 50-60 PCT CHANCE OF SEEING 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN 24 HOURS AT KIWD WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITIES
OF SEEING THAT MUCH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BARAGA/MARQUETTE COUNTIES.
LATER THU INTO FRI...UPPER LOW UNRAVELS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND SFC LOW WEAKENS TO OVER 1000MB. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHWOERS TO
FADE AWAY BY FRI...BUT IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 OVER SCNTRL. ANOTHER MORE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND NW FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT IN WAKE OF THAT FEATURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW. TURNS PRETTY CHILLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE EARLIER
PER GFS...WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -15C. COULD SEE INTERMITTENT
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LK SUPERIOR AS THE COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS
HELPED ALONG BY ANY SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH. COOL WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS POSSIBLY LONGER
AS GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARD MORE TROUGHING AND COLD AIR
HEADING TOWARD THE EASTER HOLDIAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES WILL LOWER TO IFR AND POSSIBLY
LIFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS RAIN BEGINS TO
LIFT INTO AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW WED MORNING WITH STRONG LIFT AND COOLING FROM THE SYSTEM AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO LOWERING VSBYS IN SNOW BY LATE WED MORNING
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW. ALSO
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT KCMX LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN STRONG EAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON WHERE E-NE GALES OF
35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND MOVES E AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 5
PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-003-009-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ265-
266.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT /11
AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A DEVELOPING DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE LOWER PENINSULA MAY
CONTAIN HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TONIGHT. THE LOW ITSELF WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE. COOLER WEATHER WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH HIGHS MIGRATING BACK TO THE 40S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
TWO ITEMS TO DEAL WITH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BEING THE
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AND THREAT FOR SEVERE TONIGHT. THE SECOND
BEING STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
REGARDING THE STORM AND SEVERE CHANCES FOR TONIGHT. CONSIDERABLE
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS ALLOWING DAY TIME
HEATING TO BOOST TEMPS A BIT. READINGS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE 60S OVER
FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MI TOWARDS AZO AND BEH. BEH HAS REACHED 64
DEGREES. OF MORE IMPORTANCE IS THE FACT THAT DEW POINTS HAVE SURGED
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVER A FAIRLY SIZABLE AREA OVER
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THIS WILL ACT TO INCREASE INSTABILITY TONIGHT
AS THIS MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE AS
THE WIND FIELDS INCREASE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE ALONG WITH MID
LEVEL COOLING FROM THE DYNAMIC 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TEND TO INCREASE
INSTABILITY. THE RUC HAS DEEP LAYER CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
1000 J/KG IN THE GRR FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST CAPE OVER THE
LARGEST AREA (MKG/BIV/GRR/AZO/BTL) OCCURS AROUND 2AM TO 3AM. BOTTOM
LINE...STILL EXPECTING BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SWEEP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE IS
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ARE MAXIMIZED. HAIL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH REMAINS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS A POTENTIAL THREAT
AS WELL.
REGARDING THE WIND TOMORROW...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A VERY DEEP LOW FOR ANY TIME OF YEAR
IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 980S TOMORROW MORNING. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SITUATED OVER ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. BEST ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT LOOKS TO BE WEST OF US THOUGH.
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS OF 45+ MPH LOOK LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR
ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (I96 AND I94 CORRIDORS)
WHERE WE MAY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE/MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON.
POWER OUTAGES ARE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW. THINKING THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE HIGHER RISK AREA MAY BE FOR BIV/GRR/LWA AND
AZO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF THE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...
THEN STAY THAT WAY FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WE MORE THAN LIKELY WILL SEE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS SORT OF
EVENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS EAST OF GREENLAND BY
THURSDAY AND THAT FORCES THE NORTHERN STREAM TO DIG WELL SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA... INSTEAD OF STAYING UP IN CENTRAL CANADA HAS
IT HAS BEEN DOING OVER THE PAST WEEK. THIS ALSO HELPS TO PUSH THE
CURRENT SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE
CURRENT ONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AND HEAD TO THE
EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA AROUND
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY FOR THIS SYSTEM
SO...THIS COULD BE ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM. THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY
HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO TURN THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY IN OUR AREA GETS SHEARED OUT BUT AS THIS HAPPENS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD SO WE GET A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE WE COULD SEE THE RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS ALONG I-96 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SKIES ARE NEARLY CLEAR ALONG I-94. THAT CLEARING WILL LIFT NORTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 21Z OR SO.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TILL CLOSE TO 06Z.
TONIGHT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND IFR CIGS/VSBY.. MOST OF THAT
WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. ONCE THAT MOVES THROUGH WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS...VERY STRONG WINDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DAY TIME HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY GUST OVER 40 KNOTS AT
TIMES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
ISSUED A GALE WARNING EARLIER TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS IN WISCONSIN. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT AROUND 983MB/S WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE
FORCE ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY PEAKING IN 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. WAVES WILL
BUILD TOWARDS 10 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES LIKELY
NORTH OF MUSKEGON GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE LOW WILL FILL/WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE WINDS
AND WAVES GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
SOME POINTS ALONG THE GRAND RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE BANKFULL. THE GOING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES EXPECTED FROM THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. NO OTHER HEAVY
RAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK... SO THAT
WILL GIVE THE RIVERS SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
240 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
ALBERTA/SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE
WRN GREAT LAKES INTO NW ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SE FLOW WAS
INCREASING OVER THE MS VALLEY BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WRN LAKES AND
A TROUGH FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS TO LOW PRES OVER
ERN KS. SHRA/TSRA OVER SRN MN INTO IA WERE SUPPORTED BY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. EVEN
WITH THE RIDGE OVER UPPER MI...CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED WITH TEMPS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
TODAY...AS THE 120 KNOT 250-300 MB JET INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
CNTRL ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE PLAINS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN AND THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO SE IA WILL DEEPEN. THE STRONG
DYNAMICS SUPPORTING THE UPSTREAM PCPN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD
UPPER MI BUT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TIL THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SOME PCPN MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST.
TONIGHT...AS THE STACKED LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS TO THE NE THE SFC LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO NEAR 985 MB OVER SRN WI. THE GFS/NAM HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LARGE PCPN BAND IS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. SO...EXPECT THE
BULK OF THE HEAVIER PCPN TO ARRIVE AFTER 06Z AND REACH THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOWARD 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WITH THE WAA SURGE...THE PCPN WILL REMAIN AS
RAIN TONIGHT. ERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LAKE MI WHERE GUSTS
OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
...EXTENT OF SNOW LATER WED INTO THU IS MAIN FOCUS...
TROUGH ALOFT WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING WESTERN CANADA TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LEAD SHORTWAVE/PV
ANAMOLY CROSSES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WED MORNING. OTHER MAIN SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SHEDS SOME ENERGY TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE AND THIS DEEPENS A TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED INTO THU. AT THE SFC...MAIN SFC LOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WILL BE OVER WESTERN WI WITH WARM FRONT CNTRL WI TO CNTRL
LOWER MI. LOW ONLY DEEPENS ACROSS WI AS TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS. SOLN
IS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN LOOKED LIKE 1-2 DAYS AGO WHEN THE LOW WAS
SUPPOSED TO LIFT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND ON TO THE EAST. SOLN DOES
LOOK LIKE THE ECMWF IDEA FM A COUPLE DAYS AGO....ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW POSITION AT 12Z WED.
SURGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
IF NOT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SHARP H85 THETA-
E RIDGE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION. SI/S STAYING MOSTLY
ABOVE 0C AND AXIS OF ELEVATED CAPE STAYING OVER LOWER MI SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF TSRA ON WED MORNING. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SCNTRL. THOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION LEADS TO
STABLE TEMP PROFILE SFC-H7...CONCERNED WITH 50-60 KT H9-H8 WINDS
THAT COULD BE MIXED AT LEAST PARTIALLY TO SFC IN STRONGER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS OR IF THERE ARE TSRA. RAIN WILL BE FALLING HEAVILY SO
PRECIP LOADING COULD ALSO AID IN BRINGING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS TO SFC.
AT THE LEAST...DUE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO NORTH OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER WI DOWN TO LESS THAN 990MB BY 12Z WED...AREAS
FAVORED BY EAST WINDS SUCH AS LK MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY AND
ACROSS KEWEENAW COULD SEE EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS THETA-E RIDGE GETS PINCHED OFF INTO WED AFTN WELL EAST
OF UPR MICHIGAN...FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL DIMINISH. ONLY EXCEPTION
IS OVER WESTERN CWA WHERE DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGERNCE EXPANDS
ON NW SIDE OF DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND STRONG SFC-H85 LOW MEANDERING
OVER NORTHERN WI AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
PTYPE REMAINS A CHALLENGE. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY...BUT EXTENT OF MODERATE OR EVEN HEAVY SNOW IS NOT AS
CERTAIN. KEWEENAW STILL IN LINE TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW ON
WED AS IS FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN VCNTY OF KIWD. THEMAL PROFILE
DIFFERENCES ARE MOST NOTABLE ON WED MORNING. NAM SHOWS H85 TEMPS +5C
WHILE THE GFS IS -4C THOUGH NOT SATURATED AT THAT POINT. NAM
CONTINUES TO LINGER WARM AIR ALOFT H8-H7 LEADING TO SLEET OR FZRA
WHILE GFS COOLS SUFFICIENTLY FOR SNOW. DRYING ALOFT MAY CUT OUT OR
AT LEAST DIMINISH PRECIP IF NAM IS RIGHT BY MIDDAY. GEM-REGIONAL
LOOKS MORE LIKE THE NAM AND WPC PROBABILISTIC FORCASTS WOULD SUPPORT
GREATER CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER FAR WEST CWA LATER WED
AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. AFTER ALL WAS SET AND DONE...AT LEAST WITH THIS
TURN IN THE MODELS...HAVE MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER FAR WEST AND HIGHER TERAIN OF KEWEENAW WED THROUGH THU.
HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY...BUT SINCE MOST OF SNOW ACCUMS
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL WED NIGHT AND THU...GOING TO GO WITH SPS ATTM.
LATEST WPC PROBABILITIES INDICATE 50-60 PCT CHANCE OF SEEING 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN 24 HOURS AT KIWD WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITIES
OF SEEING THAT MUCH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BARAGA/MARQUETTE COUNTIES.
LATER THU INTO FRI...UPPER LOW UNRAVELS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND SFC LOW WEAKENS TO OVER 1000MB. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHWOERS TO
FADE AWAY BY FRI...BUT IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 OVER SCNTRL. ANOTHER MORE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND NW FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT IN WAKE OF THAT FEATURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW. TURNS PRETTY CHILLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE EARLIER
PER GFS...WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -15C. COULD SEE INTERMITTENT
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LK SUPERIOR AS THE COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS
HELPED ALONG BY ANY SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH. COOL WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS POSSIBLY LONGER
AS GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARD MORE TROUGHING AND COLD AIR
HEADING TOWARD THE EASTER HOLDIAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES WILL LOWER TO IFR AND POSSIBLY
LIFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS RAIN BEGINS TO
LIFT INTO AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW WED MORNING WITH STRONG LIFT AND COOLING FROM THE SYSTEM AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO LOWERING VSBYS IN SNOW BY LATE WED MORNING
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW. ALSO
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT KCMX LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN STRONG EAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THU WHERE EAST GALES OF 35 TO
45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THU NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ265-
266.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT /11
AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
522 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
ALBERTA/SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE
WRN GREAT LAKES INTO NW ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SE FLOW WAS
INCREASING OVER THE MS VALLEY BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WRN LAKES AND
A TROUGH FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS TO LOW PRES OVER
ERN KS. SHRA/TSRA OVER SRN MN INTO IA WERE SUPPORTED BY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. EVEN
WITH THE RIDGE OVER UPPER MI...CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED WITH TEMPS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
TODAY...AS THE 120 KNOT 250-300 MB JET INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
CNTRL ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE PLAINS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN AND THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO SE IA WILL DEEPEN. THE STRONG
DYNAMICS SUPPORTING THE UPSTREAM PCPN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD
UPPER MI BUT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TIL THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SOME PCPN MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST.
TONIGHT...AS THE STACKED LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS TO THE NE THE SFC LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO NEAR 985 MB OVER SRN WI. THE GFS/NAM HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LARGE PCPN BAND IS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. SO...EXPECT THE
BULK OF THE HEAVIER PCPN TO ARRIVE AFTER 06Z AND REACH THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOWARD 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WITH THE WAA SURGE...THE PCPN WILL REMAIN AS
RAIN TONIGHT. ERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LAKE MI WHERE GUSTS
OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
...EXTENT OF SNOW LATER WED INTO THU IS MAIN FOCUS...
TROUGH ALOFT WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING WESTERN CANADA TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LEAD SHORTWAVE/PV
ANAMOLY CROSSES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WED MORNING. OTHER MAIN SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SHEDS SOME ENERGY TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE AND THIS DEEPENS A TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED INTO THU. AT THE SFC...MAIN SFC LOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WILL BE OVER WESTERN WI WITH WARM FRONT CNTRL WI TO CNTRL
LOWER MI. LOW ONLY DEEPENS ACROSS WI AS TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS. SOLN
IS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN LOOKED LIKE 1-2 DAYS AGO WHEN THE LOW WAS
SUPPOSED TO LIFT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND ON TO THE EAST. SOLN DOES
LOOK LIKE THE ECMWF IDEA FM A COUPLE DAYS AGO....ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW POSITION AT 12Z WED.
SURGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
IF NOT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SHARP H85 THETA-
E RIDGE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION. SI/S STAYING MOSTLY
ABOVE 0C AND AXIS OF ELEVATED CAPE STAYING OVER LOWER MI SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF TSRA ON WED MORNING. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SCNTRL. THOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION LEADS TO
STABLE TEMP PROFILE SFC-H7...CONCERNED WITH 50-60 KT H9-H8 WINDS
THAT COULD BE MIXED AT LEAST PARTIALLY TO SFC IN STRONGER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS OR IF THERE ARE TSRA. RAIN WILL BE FALLING HEAVILY SO
PRECIP LOADING COULD ALSO AID IN BRINGING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS TO SFC.
AT THE LEAST...DUE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO NORTH OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER WI DOWN TO LESS THAN 990MB BY 12Z WED...AREAS
FAVORED BY EAST WINDS SUCH AS LK MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY AND
ACROSS KEWEENAW COULD SEE EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS THETA-E RIDGE GETS PINCHED OFF INTO WED AFTN WELL EAST
OF UPR MICHIGAN...FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL DIMINISH. ONLY EXCEPTION
IS OVER WESTERN CWA WHERE DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGERNCE EXPANDS
ON NW SIDE OF DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND STRONG SFC-H85 LOW MEANDERING
OVER NORTHERN WI AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
PTYPE REMAINS A CHALLENGE. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY...BUT EXTENT OF MODERATE OR EVEN HEAVY SNOW IS NOT AS
CERTAIN. KEWEENAW STILL IN LINE TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW ON
WED AS IS FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN VCNTY OF KIWD. THEMAL PROFILE
DIFFERENCES ARE MOST NOTABLE ON WED MORNING. NAM SHOWS H85 TEMPS +5C
WHILE THE GFS IS -4C THOUGH NOT SATURATED AT THAT POINT. NAM
CONTINUES TO LINGER WARM AIR ALOFT H8-H7 LEADING TO SLEET OR FZRA
WHILE GFS COOLS SUFFICIENTLY FOR SNOW. DRYING ALOFT MAY CUT OUT OR
AT LEAST DIMINISH PRECIP IF NAM IS RIGHT BY MIDDAY. GEM-REGIONAL
LOOKS MORE LIKE THE NAM AND WPC PROBABILISTIC FORCASTS WOULD SUPPORT
GREATER CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER FAR WEST CWA LATER WED
AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. AFTER ALL WAS SET AND DONE...AT LEAST WITH THIS
TURN IN THE MODELS...HAVE MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER FAR WEST AND HIGHER TERAIN OF KEWEENAW WED THROUGH THU.
HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY...BUT SINCE MOST OF SNOW ACCUMS
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL WED NIGHT AND THU...GOING TO GO WITH SPS ATTM.
LATEST WPC PROBABILITIES INDICATE 50-60 PCT CHANCE OF SEEING 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN 24 HOURS AT KIWD WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITIES
OF SEEING THAT MUCH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BARAGA/MARQUETTE COUNTIES.
LATER THU INTO FRI...UPPER LOW UNRAVELS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND SFC LOW WEAKENS TO OVER 1000MB. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHWOERS TO
FADE AWAY BY FRI...BUT IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 OVER SCNTRL. ANOTHER MORE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND NW FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT IN WAKE OF THAT FEATURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW. TURNS PRETTY CHILLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE EARLIER
PER GFS...WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -15C. COULD SEE INTERMITTENT
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LK SUPERIOR AS THE COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS
HELPED ALONG BY ANY SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH. COOL WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS POSSIBLY LONGER
AS GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARD MORE TROUGHING AND COLD AIR
HEADING TOWARD THE EASTER HOLDIAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A PATCH OF LLVL DRY AIR THAT HAS MOVED OVER UPR MI WL MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING AVIATION FCST DURING A PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS
DRY AIR AND SOME VFR CLDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR BETTER THAN EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. BUT WITH SOME COOLING...STILL EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS
AT IWD AND CMX...WITH IFR PSBL AT SAW TOWARD 12Z WITH A BIT MORE OF
AN UPSLOPE ESE WIND. A STRENGTHENING ELY FLOW ON TUE AHEAD OF DVLPG
LO PRES IN MN WL TAP SOME DRIER AIR AND RESULT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR MAINLY AT SAW...BUT THIS DRY AIR COULD REACH CMX
AND IWD AS WELL...RESULTING IN VFR WX FOR AT LEAST A TIME...AND
DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF RA AHEAD OF THE MN LO PRES. AS THE RA AHEAD OF
THE MN LO ARRIVES IN THE EVNG...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
SLOWLY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN STRONG EAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THU WHERE EAST GALES OF 35 TO
45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THU NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ265-
266.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT /11
AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
423 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE...FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TODAY AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT...WILL BE THE
MAIN DRIVER IN THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. THE RELATED SURFACE LOW LIES
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS CERTAINLY NOT A QUESTION FOR THIS EVENT...NOR IS
FORCING OR DYNAMICS. HAVE INCLUDED 80-100 PERCENT POPS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND ONE INCH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIFT FORECAST OVER EAST
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE ONE TO TWO
INCH RANGE LOOK REASONABLE ALONG/EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHER ISOLATED TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS BRING BURSTS OF HEAVIER RAIN.
ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE THE WINDS...AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO
AROUND 985MB BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35
KTS APPEAR LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THAT IS
ONLY THE BEGINNING OF STRONGER WINDS TO COME /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.
ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT TRAVEL FAR FROM THEIR DAYBREAK
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S/50S...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
SUN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MID MARCH...BUT EXPECT
OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN ARE THE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS SHOW MID
60KT WINDS ATOP THE CHANNEL AT H800. ALTHOUGH THESE EXACT VALUES
WONT HAPPEN...IT DOES INDICATE THE EXTREME POWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GIVEN THE OVERALL SET UP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE INTENSIFICATION...DECIDED A HIGH WIND
WATCH WAS WARRANTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW...AND COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
A LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE NORTH AMERICAN PROJECTION
SHOWS THE TRANSITION FROM A FAST ZONAL FLOW TO A SERIES OF CUTOFF
HIGHS AND LOWS BY FRIDAY. THIS MEAN A SLOW DOWN IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. IN PARTICULAR...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SEE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AS AN
EASTERLY JET AT 300MB IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDY
COOL WEATHER WILL LAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEYOND THAT FORECAST MODELS TRY TO BRING A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT HAVE LITTLE FAITH IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK SO CONTINUED WITH THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
SEVERAL CONCERNS WITH THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. FIRST...POCKETS OF
VFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM KMSP ON WEST AND SOUTH THIS
EVENING. THERE ARE INDICATIONS USING THE 0.5KM CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM THE NAM AND RAP THAT A LARGE AREA OF VFR
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN BY 09Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z. THIS DOES NOT SHOW UP IN THE MDL LAMP
PROBABILITIES WHICH KEEPS THE SITES MVFR OR LESS. SIDED MORE WITH
THE MDL LAMP PROBABILITIES FOR THE 06Z TAFS MAINLY DUE TO THE VERY
MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF
MARCH. THEREFORE...DELAYED THE DROP TO IFR BY A FEW HOURS BUT
STILL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IT WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT.
SHOWERS ARE SPREADING INTO WESTERN MN ON SCHEDULE AND THESE WILL
EXPAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS POINT TO THE TWIN CITIES IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND
FROM 10Z-14Z FOR KRNH AND KEAU. VCTS WAS INSERTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME NW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
KMSP...ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN THE CEILING ABOVE AND
BELOW 030 AT THE START OF THE TAF WITH A DOWNWARD TREND TO IFR BY
12Z. ALSO INCLUDED VCTS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR WITH CHC OF IFR CIGS/-RA. WIND W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...MVFR WITH CHC OF IFR CIGS/-RA/-SN. WIND N 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NNE 6KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MNZ083>085-091>093.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Main concern continues to be focused on later this afternoon and
this evening for the potential of severe weather.
The HRRR has been consistent in developing convection along the
surface low and northeast along the inverted surface trough. Surface
analysis for 19Z shows the surface low is likely in between Moberly,
Columbia and Hannibal. This area has remained cloud free and is
likely to be able to build enough instability, perhaps as high as
1500 J/kg of SBCAPE. 0-6km shear though is very favorable for storm
organization and may be pushing 60 KTs. The good news is that this
environment should be east of the forecast area, given the forecasts
for the surface low. But there may be enough MUCAPE in the post-
frontal regime that when combined the forcing of the upper trough,
that a few thunderstorms cold develop late in the afternoon to early
evening. The CAPE/shear combination is not as robust as it is in the
equivalent warm sector but the environment may be supportive of
marginally severe hail.
The other issue in the short-term deals with the backside of this
system and the potential for strong winds. It is usually very
favorable for advisory level surface winds when an upper level PV
anomaly moves overhead. However, the surface low in this case is
well removed from the area and moving into Wisconsin or the UP. The
pressure gradient magnitude drops off to between 25 and 30 ubars/km
through the morning hours. Also, by the time deeper mixing into
strong winds aloft occurs, the pressure gradient is weakening and
winds aloft diminish. So it just doesn`t look like the ingredients
line up to get a good synoptic wind event to the levels that an
advisory would be needed. But it will still be windy across the
region tomorrow morning through early in the afternoon. The
strongest winds will be in our northeastern zones, closest to the
departing the surface low.
While the weather will be cooler than the recent past, overall it
looks to be quiet as well. The area will be in a general
northwesterly flow pattern with a weak blocking signal over the
Great Lakes. With predominantly cyclonic curvature to the flow over
or region, temperatures will be on the cool side. It`s not really
until the end of next week, when the upper ridge over the west
begins to shift eastward, that flow turns back to the south and we
warm back into the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
There may be a few hours of MVFR to low MVFR ceilings this afternoon
in the wake of the front. A few showers are also possible. Winds
should also begin to increase and become gusty through the afternoon
afternoon hours. This evening and through the overnight into
tomorrow, VFR conditions are expected.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1234 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
THIS UPDATE REFINED POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK. MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUED IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AND DEVILS LAKE
BASIN...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED FARTHER
SOUTH IN THE JAMES BASIN AREA. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW
OVER SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA TO NEAR DEVILS LAKE TO JAMESTOWN TO NEAR
ABERDEEN IN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST AND BE OUT OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY/BEFORE SUNRISE. COOLER AIR WAS ALREADY PUSHING
INTO THE STATE...WITH LOWER 30S IN THE WEST AT MIDNIGHT CDT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
THIS UPDATE FOCUSED ON REFINING POPS FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS JUST EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AS OF 02 UTC. WE USED
TIME-LAGGED HRRR GUIDANCE TO ADJUST POPS OVERNIGHT SINCE IT PICKS
UP ON RADAR TRENDS AS OF MID EVENING...WITH DRYING OVER WESTERN ND
IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. THE 00 UTC
ABERDEEN SOUNDING SAMPLED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHICH THE
RAP-BASED SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS EXTENDS INTO EAST CENTRAL ND
WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BETWEEN 45 AND 50 F THIS EVENING...BUT
IT APPEARS EFFECTIVE SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KT IS LIMITING THE CHANCE
OF SUSTAINED STRONG UPDRAFTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
WE INCREASED POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OVER WESTERN AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING WITH THIS UPDATE GIVEN UPSTREAM
PRESSURE RISES...OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
AS OF 23 UTC...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL ND WITH A
WELL-DEFINED THUNDERSTORM SOUTHWEST OF MINOT...AND RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AGITATED CUMULUS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS
PARTS OF BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES AS WELL. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACTUALLY MIXED OUT WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REDUCING INSTABILITY...BUT STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE GROWTH.
RAP-BASED MESOANALYSIS OUTPUT SUGGESTS GREATER MLCAPE UP TO AROUND
1000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
THIS EVENING IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER 45 F ARE MAINTAINED AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...SUGGESTING A STRONG STORM OR TWO
COULD OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH
COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN NEAR THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST STRETCHING TOWARDS THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. SHORTWAVE WORKING TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
MONTANA...WHILE A LOW IS STARTING TO CLOSE OFF OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED
CLOSING OFF SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
OVERNIGHT WHILE COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW PUSH OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL BRING A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...SO A FEW
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
ON TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST FOR A BIT IN
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD START OUT QUIET. WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL BRING NOTABLY COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50. UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN GRADUALLY MOVES TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE SWINGING AROUND INTO
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND STALLING
OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
CAA MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONWARDS AS A CUTOFF
LOW FORMS AND SLOWLY PIVOTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION.
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION IS BEING ADVERTISED BY MOST
MODELS AS A TROWAL/DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP...INITIALLY AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN ALL SNOW AS COLDER AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE.
STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ALTHOUGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS REMAIN WARRANTED.
SOME AREAS WILL SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS LESS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS THERE IS
STILL MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY YET TO MOVE ONSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A COLD FRONT THAT IS NEAR A KJMS TO KDVL LINE AT 06Z WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
GUSTY AND ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING AT KJMS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING AND LATER
ON TUESDAY WHEN DRYING NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
131 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE CROSSING OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR/LOWERING DEW POINTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY LOBE OVER CENTRAL KY. MODELS SHOW THIS
FEATURE GRADUALLY LOSING STEAM AS IT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. HAVE SOME UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPE LOOKS TO MAX OUT AT AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT IS A
FAIRLY SKINNY PROFILE. HOWEVER...COMBINE THAT WITH A FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 9000FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...SOME SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY TALLER STORMS. FLOW IS NOT OVERLY STRONG... 35-40KTS AT 700MB
AND 500MB... BUT WE DO HAVE A WEAK INVERTED V AND POCKET OF DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER CELLS. BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY MARGINAL -- AROUND 35KTS -- SO EXPECT INDIVIDUAL CELLS TO BE
RATHER UNORGANIZED AND MAYBE PULSE-Y IN NATURE.
WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...HAVE AN AREA OF HIGH POPS TRANSITIONING
ACROSS CWA FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELIED FAIRLY
HEAVILY ON THE HI-RES NAM AND HRRR FOR TIMING OF THE HIGHEST POPS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE 1-1.2 IN...WHICH SHOULD NOT CREATE
ANY WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS. HAVE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTH. WITH MIDDLE ISLAND CREEK AND DUCK CREEK CONTINUING TO RUN
HIGH...AND A BULLSEYE OF LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WILL LEAVE THE
FLOOD WATCH AS IS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH NO COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LOW STRATUS
AND SOME VALLEY FOG BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
USED A BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND ECMWF MOS FOR HIGHS WHICH
DID NOT RESULT IN ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. A MAV/MET BLEND
FOR LOWS TONIGHT TRENDED A TOUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS IN THE MIDWEST...IOWA AND ILLINOIS...NEAR 00Z
WEDNESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD MICHIGAN BY 06Z AND AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z WED. MEANWHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS ONLY FALL SLOWLY
HERE.
SO NOT IMPRESSED WITH SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. STILL
HAVE FRONT SWEEPING EAST. FIGURING REACHING TOWARD CRW AROUND 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN EXITING MOUNTAINS BY 15Z. DESPITE LACK OF
MID LEVEL SUPPORT...CONSIDERING AIR MASS WE ARE STILL IN...AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WILL STILL LEAVE SOME 20 TO 40 POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.
WESTERLY FLOW OF LOWERING DEW POINTS AND FRESHER AIR ADVECTING OUR
WAY...DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN FAST FLOW SOUTH OF THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HAVE MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN COULD NOT GO MORE THAN 20 TO 40 POPS.
CONSIDERING 850 TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND PLUS 1 C...LOWERED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND EVEN MENTIONED A POSSIBILITY FOR THOSE POPS OF R-S-
AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET WX WILL GREET FOLKS ENDING THE WORK WEEK WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS. WE STILL ENVISION A PATTERN CHANGE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL ESTABLISH A MEAN EASTERN US TROF THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
AND MORE SPECIFICALLY IF A CONSOLIDATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
FORM ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT SOME CHILLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
SOME IFR/MVFR SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. AN MVFR STRATUS DECK MAY ALSO
FORM THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS. THE STRATUS DECK WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT INTO A CUMULUS DECK ON TUESDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR AROUND SUNSET...AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS FORMING EARLY THIS MORNING
COULD VARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD CAUSE LOWER RESTRICTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...THESE
HAVE NOT BEEN TIMED IN THE TAFS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 03/15/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS ARE LOW.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009>011-
017-019-020-031-032-040.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-084.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30/26
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
905 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A QPF SIGNAL OVER NORTH TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS DEEPER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED THIS
POSSIBILITY AS WELL. THUS...KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT SOUTH OF A QUANAH TEXAS TO
CHICKASHA TO MADILL LINE. NOT COMPLETELY SURE STORMS WILL OCCUR
DUE TO SOME CAPPING...THOUGH THERE SEEMS TO BE A STRONG SIGNAL
SOMETHING WILL FORM. EXACT LOCATIONS AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL...MAINLY NICKEL SIZE OR SMALL...MAY
OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO MUCAPE 200-1000 J/KG AND STRONG
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 55-65 KT. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AND
SEEMS TO BE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS
AND CLOSER TO ABILENE AND DALLAS WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE HIGHER WITH MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM NEAR FREEZING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS MOST SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSPS. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OK BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAF AT
THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE IS SET TO RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SETTING US UP FOR
OUR NEXT RAIN EVENT ON FRIDAY. AREAS IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
ALONG THE RED RIVER COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AS EARLY AS
TONIGHT...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WONT FALL UNTIL AN UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES AND
COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THAT AREA BY THEN.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RECOVER ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEAR WATCH
IN REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER. TUESDAY ESPECIALLY...AS A DRYLINE APPEARS
TO SET UP IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...LEAVING RH VALUES POTENTIALLY IN THE
TEENS IN FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING VARIES WIDELY BETWEEN THE MODELS.
MAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 41 68 44 54 / 10 10 10 40
HOBART OK 41 66 44 53 / 10 10 30 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 45 65 48 59 / 20 30 20 50
GAGE OK 30 67 36 49 / 0 0 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 34 67 38 53 / 0 0 0 40
DURANT OK 46 68 50 62 / 10 20 20 50
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
717 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL AND PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED VERY SHORTLY BY A COLD FRONT. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO WEEKEND. THE RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS
WEEK WILL MIX WITH WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHTS ON THE
RIDGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS TRYING TO ENTER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AT 5 AM...BUT HAVING
MORE LUCK OVER THE SC MTNS. 00Z NAM AND MOST HRRR AND RAP RUNS UP
TO THIS POINT DID WELL AT PLACING PRECIP. BUT RECENT RUNS HAVE
BEEN LESS IMPRESSIVE. STILL A GENERALLY SHOWERY/DRIZZLY DAY IS
FORECAST AS THE WIND ONLY GRADUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK TROUGH. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG/DZ INTO THE
MORNING...THEN JUST CALL IT SHOWERS. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING DUE TO MORE CERTAINTY TRACKING CURRENT RADAR AND SAT
FEATURES. NEAT MCV VISIBLE IN THE RADAR DATA BACK AROUND MIDNIGHT
OVER THE WRN PART OF THE STATE AND NOW ONE IS ROLLING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE SC MTNS...GENERATED BY CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL V
EARLIER TONIGHT. PRECIP SEEMS NOT SO CERTAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE
NRN TIER WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS IN THE AFTN. HAVE TAKEN
A FEW DEGS OFF THE MAX TEMPS OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS FROM
PREV FCSTS AND MOS SINCE THE CLOUDS DO LOOK TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A
NOTCH OR TWO LATER TODAY. BUT PEEKS OF SUN ARE STILL POSSIBLE -
MAINLY S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME CLEARING IN THE SRN HALF...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATER IN THE NIGHT. DIURNAL
SWING WILL BE VERY SMALL IN THE N - BUT CLOSER TO 10-12F OVER THE
SRN TIER. MOST PLACES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE M40S.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE PARTIAL CLEARING WHICH COULD
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ON WED. SPC HAS US IN GENERAL
THUNDER - AND A QUICK LOOK AT THE HODOGRAPH AND VERY LOW LCLS IN
PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT MAKE IT SEEM LIKE IT COULD BE MORE
INTERESTING /ROTATING CELLS??/ THAN A BENIGN MENTION OF T. 0-3KM
EHI/S START TO SHOW UP IN A NARROW STRIPE NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...WE WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED IN HEATING AND HAVE HIGHER
STABILITY THAN WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION AND
REALIZE THE POTENTIAL OF THE STORMS THAT DAY. WILL MENTION THUNDER
FOR WED. ANOTHER FEW RUNS WILL HELP DETERMINE JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE
CAN GET. THE COLD FRONT ZIPS RIGHT IN BEHIND THE OTHER
FRONT...AND COULD PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT AND DRY AIR. IT WILL ALSO
SERVE TO EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF PRECIP LATER IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE SUNSET WED.
WED NIGHT IS A TOUGH CALL ON TEMPS AS THE SKY COVER WILL VARY
GREATLY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME INITIAL CLEARING THEN A RETURN
OF MOISTURE AND PERHAPS A SHOWER LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE WEST.
ALSO...THE WINDS BECOME SWRLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 8H TEMPS INCH
DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT THE DEW POINTS DO NOT GET OUT OF THE
WAY TO ALLOW FOR A REALLY GOOD TEMP DROP. OF COURSE...THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS IN THE EAST LIKE KSEG AND KTHV WHERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING SEEMS TO MAXIMIZED IN ALL SITUATIONS COULD DROP OFF
NICELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE INITIAL BLOCKING PATTERN OVER SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS
WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE INTO A CNTRL-ERN U.S. MEAN TROUGH THAT
COULD SUPPORT A STRONGLY DEVELOPING SFC SYSTEM IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL
IMPORTANT MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT REMAIN UNRESOLVED WITH INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VERY DISPERSED SUN-MON IN A LOW TRACK RANGING
FROM WELL INLAND TO OFFSHORE. THEREFORE THE DEGREE OF CERTAINTY OR
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS LOW/BELOW AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE A SEASONABLE COOLING TREND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD FROM THE MID-WEEK PEAK/ANOMALOUS WARMTH.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE SFC LOW TRACK LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHICH TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINING PRECIP EXTENT/TIMING AND
TYPE. A LATE SEASON SNOW EVENT IS A POSSIBLE OUTCOME BUT THE ODDS
ARE VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES FOR 12Z TAFS.
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS...ONE TO THE WEST...ANOTHER ONE TO THE
SOUTH...AS OF 7 AM.
SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFT...AS THE MOIST SE
FLOW WEAKENS...AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...AS A WEAK UPPER
LVL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BEEN COOLER THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
MUCH ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS SET BEHIND THE BLIZZARD OF
1993.
RECORDS FOR TODAY...TUESDAY MARCH 15TH.
WILLIAMSPORT RECORD LOW OF JUST 2 ABOVE ZERO SET IN 1993.
HARRISBURG RECORD LOW OF JUST 7 ABOVE ZERO SET IN 1993.
JUST A REMINDER OF HOW COLD IT CAN STILL GET IN MID MARCH.
THERE HAS BEEN A LACK OF MAJOR WINTER STORMS IN MARCH AND
APRIL SINCE 1994. SOME OF THE BIGGER STORMS HAVE OCCURRED
IN MARCH AND APRIL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
624 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL AND PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED VERY SHORTLY BY A COLD FRONT. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO WEEKEND. THE RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS
WEEK WILL MIX WITH WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHTS ON THE
RIDGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS TRYING TO ENTER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AT 5 AM...BUT HAVING
MORE LUCK OVER THE SC MTNS. 00Z NAM AND MOST HRRR AND RAP RUNS UP
TO THIS POINT DID WELL AT PLACING PRECIP. BUT RECENT RUNS HAVE
BEEN LESS IMPRESSIVE. STILL A GENERALLY SHOWERY/DRIZZLY DAY IS
FORECAST AS THE WIND ONLY GRADUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK TROUGH. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG/DZ INTO THE
MORNING...THEN JUST CALL IT SHOWERS. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING DUE TO MORE CERTAINTY TRACKING CURRENT RADAR AND SAT
FEATURES. NEAT MCV VISIBLE IN THE RADAR DATA BACK AROUND MIDNIGHT
OVER THE WRN PART OF THE STATE AND NOW ONE IS ROLLING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE SC MTNS...GENERATED BY CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL V
EARLIER TONIGHT. PRECIP SEEMS NOT SO CERTAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE
NRN TIER WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS IN THE AFTN. HAVE TAKEN
A FEW DEGS OFF THE MAX TEMPS OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS FROM
PREV FCSTS AND MOS SINCE THE CLOUDS DO LOOK TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A
NOTCH OR TWO LATER TODAY. BUT PEEKS OF SUN ARE STILL POSSIBLE -
MAINLY S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME CLEARING IN THE SRN HALF...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATER IN THE NIGHT. DIURNAL
SWING WILL BE VERY SMALL IN THE N - BUT CLOSER TO 10-12F OVER THE
SRN TIER. MOST PLACES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE M40S.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE PARTIAL CLEARING WHICH COULD
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ON WED. SPC HAS US IN GENERAL
THUNDER - AND A QUICK LOOK AT THE HODOGRAPH AND VERY LOW LCLS IN
PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT MAKE IT SEEM LIKE IT COULD BE MORE
INTERESTING /ROTATING CELLS??/ THAN A BENIGN MENTION OF T. 0-3KM
EHI/S START TO SHOW UP IN A NARROW STRIPE NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...WE WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED IN HEATING AND HAVE HIGHER
STABILITY THAN WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION AND
REALIZE THE POTENTIAL OF THE STORMS THAT DAY. WILL MENTION THUNDER
FOR WED. ANOTHER FEW RUNS WILL HELP DETERMINE JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE
CAN GET. THE COLD FRONT ZIPS RIGHT IN BEHIND THE OTHER
FRONT...AND COULD PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT AND DRY AIR. IT WILL ALSO
SERVE TO EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF PRECIP LATER IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE SUNSET WED.
WED NIGHT IS A TOUGH CALL ON TEMPS AS THE SKY COVER WILL VARY
GREATLY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME INITIAL CLEARING THEN A RETURN
OF MOISTURE AND PERHAPS A SHOWER LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE WEST.
ALSO...THE WINDS BECOME SWRLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 8H TEMPS INCH
DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT THE DEW POINTS DO NOT GET OUT OF THE
WAY TO ALLOW FOR A REALLY GOOD TEMP DROP. OF COURSE...THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS IN THE EAST LIKE KSEG AND KTHV WHERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING SEEMS TO MAXIMIZED IN ALL SITUATIONS COULD DROP OFF
NICELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE INITIAL BLOCKING PATTERN OVER SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS
WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE INTO A CNTRL-ERN U.S. MEAN TROUGH THAT
COULD SUPPORT A STRONGLY DEVELOPING SFC SYSTEM IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL
IMPORTANT MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT REMAIN UNRESOLVED WITH INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VERY DISPERSED SUN-MON IN A LOW TRACK RANGING
FROM WELL INLAND TO OFFSHORE. THEREFORE THE DEGREE OF CERTAINTY OR
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS LOW/BELOW AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE A SEASONABLE COOLING TREND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD FROM THE MID-WEEK PEAK/ANOMALOUS WARMTH.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE SFC LOW TRACK LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHICH TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINING PRECIP EXTENT/TIMING AND
TYPE. A LATE SEASON SNOW EVENT IS A POSSIBLE OUTCOME BUT THE ODDS
ARE VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS...ONE TO THE WEST...ANOTHER ONE TO THE
SOUTH...AS OF 6 AM.
09Z TAFS SENT.
SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFT...AS THE MOIST SE
WEAKENS...AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...AS A WEAK UPPER
LVL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
529 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL AND PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED VERY SHORTLY BY A COLD FRONT. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO WEEKEND. THE RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS
WEEK WILL MIX WITH WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHTS ON THE
RIDGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS TRYING TO ENTER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AT 5 AM...BUT HAVING
MORE LUCK OVER THE SC MTNS. 00Z NAM AND MOST HRRR AND RAP RUNS UP
TO THIS POINT DID WELL AT PLACING PRECIP. BUT RECENT RUNS HAVE
BEEN LESS IMPRESSIVE. STILL A GENERALLY SHOWERY/DRIZZLY DAY IS
FORECAST AS THE WIND ONLY GRADUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK TROUGH. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG/DZ INTO THE
MORNING...THEN JUST CALL IT SHOWERS. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING DUE TO MORE CERTAINTY TRACKING CURRENT RADAR AND SAT
FEATURES. NEAT MCV VISIBLE IN THE RADAR DATA BACK AROUND MIDNIGHT
OVER THE WRN PART OF THE STATE AND NOW ONE IS ROLLING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE SC MTNS...GENERATED BY CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL V
EARLIER TONIGHT. PRECIP SEEMS NOT SO CERTAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE
NRN TIER WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS IN THE AFTN. HAVE TAKEN
A FEW DEGS OFF THE MAX TEMPS OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS FROM
PREV FCSTS AND MOS SINCE THE CLOUDS DO LOOK TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A
NOTCH OR TWO LATER TODAY. BUT PEEKS OF SUN ARE STILL POSSIBLE -
MAINLY S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME CLEARING IN THE SRN HALF...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATER IN THE NIGHT. DIURNAL
SWING WILL BE VERY SMALL IN THE N - BUT CLOSER TO 10-12F OVER THE
SRN TIER. MOST PLACES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE M40S.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE PARTIAL CLEARING WHICH COULD
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ON WED. SPC HAS US IN GENERAL
THUNDER - AND A QUICK LOOK AT THE HODOGRAPH AND VERY LOW LCLS IN
PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT MAKE IT SEEM LIKE IT COULD BE MORE
INTERESTING /ROTATING CELLS??/ THAN A BENIGN MENTION OF T. 0-3KM
EHI/S START TO SHOW UP IN A NARROW STRIPE NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...WE WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED IN HEATING AND HAVE HIGHER
STABILITY THAN WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION AND
REALIZE THE POTENTIAL OF THE STORMS THAT DAY. WILL MENTION THUNDER
FOR WED. ANOTHER FEW RUNS WILL HELP DETERMINE JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE
CAN GET. THE COLD FRONT ZIPS RIGHT IN BEHIND THE OTHER
FRONT...AND COULD PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT AND DRY AIR. IT WILL ALSO
SERVE TO EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF PRECIP LATER IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE SUNSET WED.
WED NIGHT IS A TOUGH CALL ON TEMPS AS THE SKY COVER WILL VARY
GREATLY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME INITIAL CLEARING THEN A RETURN
OF MOISTURE AND PERHAPS A SHOWER LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE WEST.
ALSO...THE WINDS BECOME SWRLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 8H TEMPS INCH
DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT THE DEW POINTS DO NOT GET OUT OF THE
WAY TO ALLOW FOR A REALLY GOOD TEMP DROP. OF COURSE...THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS IN THE EAST LIKE KSEG AND KTHV WHERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING SEEMS TO MAXIMIZED IN ALL SITUATIONS COULD DROP OFF
NICELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE INITIAL BLOCKING PATTERN OVER SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS
WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE INTO A CNTRL-ERN U.S. MEAN TROUGH THAT
COULD SUPPORT A STRONGLY DEVELOPING SFC SYSTEM IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL
IMPORTANT MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT REMAIN UNRESOLVED WITH INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VERY DISPERSED SUN-MON IN A LOW TRACK RANGING
FROM WELL INLAND TO OFFSHORE. THEREFORE THE DEGREE OF CERTAINTY OR
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS LOW/BELOW AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE A SEASONABLE COOLING TREND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD FROM THE MID-WEEK PEAK/ANOMALOUS WARMTH.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE SFC LOW TRACK LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHICH TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINING PRECIP EXTENT/TIMING AND
TYPE. A LATE SEASON SNOW EVENT IS A POSSIBLE OUTCOME BUT THE ODDS
ARE VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
A PATCH OF DRIZZLE MOVED ACROSS THE UNV AREA WHEN I CAME IN
EARLIER AND IS NOW JUST WEST OF IPT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OH JUST FELL APART. A FEW SHOWERS STILL
TRYING TO SURVIVE OVER N VA.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A MOIST LLVL EASTERLY FLOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS OF 03Z...WITH LIFR NOTED ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
AIRFIELDS /KBFD AND KJST/. ONLY KIPT REMAINS MVFR...BUT BULK OF
MDL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY CAUSE
CIGS TO DIP BLW 1KFT THERE FOR A TIME EARLY TUE AM.
EARLIER LINE OF TSRA FELL APART BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL PA...AS
ASSOC MID LVL DISTURBANCE WEAKENED AND LINE ENCOUNTERED A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS PA.
SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BY TUES AFTERNOON...AS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.
PARTIAL CLEARING...LIGHT WIND AND WET GROUND ASSOC WITH ARRIVAL
OF SFC RIDGE WILL LIKELY YIELD AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TUE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
211 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH DISSOLVES AS IT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL KEEP IT A
BIT COOL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH WET SNOW
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
130AM EDT UPDATE...
THINGS HAVE TOTALLY FALLEN APART OVER WRN PA - AND NEVER REALLY
MADE IT INTO THE CWA. OUR STABILITY HAS SQUASHED THE CONVECTION.
HAVE THUS DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY. STILL GOING TOO BE LOTS OF
DZ/LOW CLOUDS AROUND. SO HELD ONTO DZ/FG MENTIONS IN THE WX GRIDS
FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE AM. SMALL
CHANGES TO THE NEXT FEW PERIODS BUT NOTHING MUCH TO MENTION AT
THIS POINT.
PREV...
LITTLE CHANGE LATE THIS EVENING...AS LLVL EASTERLY FLOW OF COOL
MOIST AIR HAS LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS..WITH FOG BLANKETING THE RIDGE TOPS.
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST PA ARE STILL FORECAST TO DAMPEN AS PER
LATEST HI RES HRRR AND WRF ARW RUNS...RUNNING INTO THE COOL STABLE
AIR OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
FORCING ARRIVING OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 5H UPPER TROF...DO
EXPECT HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS TO IMPACT THE WEST CENTRAL AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS BEFORE TAPERING FARTHER EAST. OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EAST...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCARCE...BUT DRIZZLE WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S...TO NEAR 40F IN THE LOWER
SUSQ REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH ON TUESDAY AS PWATS REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL AND THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE PUSH OF DRY AIR TO
DISLODGE THE MOISTURE. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND ABOVE
TODAY/S CHILLY READINGS HOWEVER...MAKING IT BACK INTO THE 50S. THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN TIER COULD KEEP THEM MORE NEAR 50F...BUT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE S WILL MAKE THEM CLOSE TO 60F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED
500MB LOW PIVOTING NORTHWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION ON DAY 3/WED. A REX BLOCK FORMS BRIEFLY WITH A
CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER MANITOBA. AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED LOW
IS FCST TO DRIFT N ACROSS WI WITH AN OCCLUDED COLD FRONT ARCING
DOWNSTREAM AND PUSHING E ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS/MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN GENERATING SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH SOME ELEVATED THUNDER POTENTIAL.
THE INITIAL BLOCKING PATTERN OVER SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS
WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE INTO A CNTRL-ERN U.S. MEAN TROUGH THAT
COULD SUPPORT A STRONGLY DEVELOPING SFC SYSTEM IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL
IMPORTANT MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT REMAIN UNRESOLVED WITH INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VERY DISPERSED SUN-MON IN A LOW TRACK RANGING
FROM WELL INLAND TO OFFSHORE. THEREFORE THE DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
OR CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS LOW/BELOW AVERAGE AT THIS
TIME.
SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE A SEASONABLE COOLING TREND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD FROM THE MID-WEEK PEAK/ANOMALOUS WARMTH.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE SFC LOW TRACK LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHICH TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINING PRECIP EXTENT/TIMING AND
TYPE. A LATE SEASON SNOW EVENT IS A POSSIBLE OUTCOME BUT THE ODDS
ARE VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
A PATCH OF DRIZZLE MOVED ACROSS THE UNV AREA WHEN I CAME IN
EARLIER AND IS NOW JUST WEST OF IPT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OH JUST FELL APART. A FEW SHOWERS STILL
TRYING TO SURVIVE OVER N VA.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A MOIST LLVL EASTERLY FLOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS OF 03Z...WITH LIFR NOTED ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
AIRFIELDS /KBFD AND KJST/. ONLY KIPT REMAINS MVFR...BUT BULK OF
MDL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY CAUSE
CIGS TO DIP BLW 1KFT THERE FOR A TIME EARLY TUE AM.
EARLIER LINE OF TSRA FELL APART BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL PA...AS
ASSOC MID LVL DISTURBANCE WEAKENED AND LINE ENCOUNTERED A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS PA.
SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BY TUES AFTERNOON...AS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.
PARTIAL CLEARING...LIGHT WIND AND WET GROUND ASSOC WITH ARRIVAL
OF SFC RIDGE WILL LIKELY YIELD AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TUE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
133 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH DISSOLVES AS IT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL KEEP IT A
BIT COOL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH WET SNOW
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
130AM EDT UPDATE...
THINGS HAVE TOTALLY FALLEN APART OVER WRN PA - AND NEVER REALLY
MADE IT INTO THE CWA. OUR STABILITY HAS SQUASHED THE CONVECTION.
HAVE THUS DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY. STILL GOING TOO BE LOTS OF
DZ/LOW CLOUDS AROUND. SO HELD ONTO DZ/FG MENTIONS IN THE WX GRIDS
FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE AM. SMALL
CHANGES TO THE NEXT FEW PERIODS BUT NOTHING MUCH TO MENTION AT
THIS POINT.
PREV...
LITTLE CHANGE LATE THIS EVENING...AS LLVL EASTERLY FLOW OF COOL
MOIST AIR HAS LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS..WITH FOG BLANKETING THE RIDGE TOPS.
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST PA ARE STILL FORECAST TO DAMPEN AS PER
LATEST HI RES HRRR AND WRF ARW RUNS...RUNNING INTO THE COOL STABLE
AIR OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
FORCING ARRIVING OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 5H UPPER TROF...DO
EXPECT HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS TO IMPACT THE WEST CENTRAL AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS BEFORE TAPERING FARTHER EAST. OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EAST...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCARCE...BUT DRIZZLE WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S...TO NEAR 40F IN THE LOWER
SUSQ REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH ON TUESDAY AS PWATS REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL AND THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE PUSH OF DRY AIR TO
DISLODGE THE MOISTURE. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND ABOVE
TODAY/S CHILLY READINGS HOWEVER...MAKING IT BACK INTO THE 50S. THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN TIER COULD KEEP THEM MORE NEAR 50F...BUT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE S WILL MAKE THEM CLOSE TO 60F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED
500MB LOW PIVOTING NORTHWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION ON DAY 3/WED. A REX BLOCK FORMS BRIEFLY WITH A
CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER MANITOBA. AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED LOW
IS FCST TO DRIFT N ACROSS WI WITH AN OCCLUDED COLD FRONT ARCING
DOWNSTREAM AND PUSHING E ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS/MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN GENERATING SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH SOME ELEVATED THUNDER POTENTIAL.
THE INITIAL BLOCKING PATTERN OVER SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS
WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE INTO A CNTRL-ERN U.S. MEAN TROUGH THAT
COULD SUPPORT A STRONGLY DEVELOPING SFC SYSTEM IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL
IMPORTANT MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT REMAIN UNRESOLVED WITH INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VERY DISPERSED SUN-MON IN A LOW TRACK RANGING
FROM WELL INLAND TO OFFSHORE. THEREFORE THE DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
OR CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS LOW/BELOW AVERAGE AT THIS
TIME.
SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE A SEASONABLE COOLING TREND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD FROM THE MID-WEEK PEAK/ANOMALOUS WARMTH.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE SFC LOW TRACK LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHICH TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINING PRECIP EXTENT/TIMING AND
TYPE. A LATE SEASON SNOW EVENT IS A POSSIBLE OUTCOME BUT THE ODDS
ARE VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MOIST LLVL EASTERLY FLOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS OF 03Z...WITH LIFR NOTED ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
AIRFIELDS /KBFD AND KJST/. ONLY KIPT REMAINS MVFR...BUT BULK OF
MDL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY CAUSE
CIGS TO DIP BLW 1KFT THERE FOR A TIME EARLY TUE AM.
EARLIER LINE OF TSRA FELL APART BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL PA...AS
ASSOC MID LVL DISTURBANCE WEAKENED AND LINE ENCOUNTERED A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS PA.
SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BY TUES AFTERNOON...AS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.
PARTIAL CLEARING...LIGHT WIND AND WET GROUND ASSOC WITH ARRIVAL
OF SFC RIDGE WILL LIKELY YIELD AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TUE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...WITH
CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WE EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING 06Z-07Z AND GIVEN THE LATEST
MODEL AGREEMENT...WE HAVE INCLUDED SOME TEMPO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS
BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS IN STORE TOMORROW...BUT IFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL IN STORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS
REMAIN THICK...BUT WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AFTER 19Z. WE/LL KEEP
MVFR CONDITIONS INTACT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. AT KDRT...VFR SKIES
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
AROUND 04Z. CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO IFR AFTER 10Z...WITH CIGS
LIFTING INTO MVFR AFTER 17Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SHALLOW TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THE FLOW ACROSS TEXAS WAS GENERALLY WESTERLY.
AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY DURING
THIS PERIOD AND PRODUCE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD WEST AND INCREASE
THURSDAY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP IS
MOSTLY TO COME AS SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND FRIDAY AND THEN BECOME
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY UNTIL
AROUND NOON SATURDAY. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A DRY PATTERN FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 77 63 76 53 / 20 30 40 30 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 66 76 63 76 54 / 20 30 40 30 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 78 63 76 56 / 10 30 40 40 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 75 60 74 49 / 20 30 30 40 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 80 63 77 56 / 10 20 40 40 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 64 76 61 75 51 / 20 30 30 30 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 67 79 64 76 57 / 10 20 40 40 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 77 63 76 55 / 10 30 40 40 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 78 63 77 57 / 20 30 40 40 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 78 64 75 57 / 10 30 40 40 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 79 65 77 59 / 10 30 40 40 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
159 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING AN END TO ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE BY TUESDAY AND PROVIDE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT MONDAY...
AXIS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NOW SWINGING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE THE WEDGE CONTINUES TO LINGER IN PLACE. THUS EXPECT WILL SEE
MOST STORMS WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE ELEVATED UPON CROSSING DEEPER
INTO THE COOL POOL. HOWEVER STILL COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY HAIL SO
LEAVING IN THUNDER MENTION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS AREAS
ROUGHLY FROM LYH TO DAN AND POINTS EAST. LATEST HRRR THEN SHOWS
THIS BAND OF LIFT HEADING EAST/NE OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SUBSIDENCE SPILLING IN UNDER THE MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PASS
OVERHEAD SHORTLY AND TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW
FOR A DECREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE WEST BUT ENOUGH WEAK UPSLOPE
AND WRAP AROUND TRAJECTORY TO KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTS TO TEMPS TO
NUDGE DOWN WHERE ALREADY AT FORECAST LOWS BUT GIVEN SATURATION NOT
EXPECTING VALUES TO FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE SITUATION IS CURRENTLY UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED WITH THE
LINGERING WEDGE HOLDING ON IN THE PIEDMONT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
CONVECTION IS BEING DRIVEN BY AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
WHICH WILL HELP STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE EVENING. CURRENTLY
BELIEVE THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND CLEAR THE
EASTERN ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LEAST WHERE
THE WEDGE IS HOLDING ON BUT OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE CONVECTION DOES
FIRE WILL BE DEALING HAIL PRODUCING STORMS WITH A SLIGHT THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THAT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. NO CHANGE OF AIRMASS SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY GENERALLY UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 WEST OF THE RIDGE TO MIDDLE
70S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.
WEDNESDAY....AN WESTERLY FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS WITH INCREASING
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 70S MAINLY EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME IN SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE NC PIEDMONT
REACHING 80. THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY WARM AS WELL WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS WED MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS WITH 5H HEIGHTS FALLING
AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO NOT LOOKING AT ANY THREAT OF RAIN...MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40S.
THURSDAY...A SFC WAVE STARTS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ACT TO BRING SOME MOISTURE OUR
WAY WITH THE FRONT NEARBY BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY DECENT
CHANCES...SO HAVE POPS LOW CHANCE WV TO SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY BUT STILL WARM
FOR MID MARCH WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WEST...TO AROUND 70
SOUTHEAST.
THINGS WILL BE CLEARING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS 5H HEIGHTS CONTINUE
FALLING...WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S WEST...TO LOWER TO MID 40S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...
FORECAST THIS PERIOD REMAINS SOMEWHAT SKETCHY BUT ALL MODELS
INDICATE BACK TO NORMAL OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...THOUGH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD BRING
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
MILD BEFORE THE TROUGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED NEAR THE GULF COAST FRIDAY....INTO
SATURDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGH INTO SUNDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH
ACROSS US WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS...WITH SECOND LOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
CURRENTLY....CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS WILL KEEP PRECIP MAINLY
RAIN...BUT AS COLDER MOVES ACROSS BEHIND THE LOW SOME SNOW MAY OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT BY
THEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING. STILL BEARS WATCH AS
COLDER AIR AND UPPER LOW MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME HIGH
ELEVATIONS SNOWS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL BE COOL...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 40S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 50S EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LAST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING AT
KLYH DURING THE HOUR...AND HAS ALREADY ENDED AT KDAN. LINGERING
SPOTTY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WV...MOST OF WHICH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST OF
I-81. UNFORTUNATELY...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH THIS TYPE OF
SYNOPTIC SCENARIO...TRUE SURFACE DRYING WILL NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK WHEN MIXING CAN COMMENCE. THUS...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS
LINGERING TO THE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH DAYBREAK OR AN
HOUR OR TWO THEREAFTER. THUS...IFR-LIFR CIGS STILL APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD PROBABILITY FOR MOST TAF SITES FOR THESE REASONS THROUGH
13Z...WITH KROA LIKELY SEEING MVFR-IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
AS WELL. AFT 14Z...EXPECT FAIRLY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND
EVENTUALLY SKC EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO IMPACT KLYH...KDAN...AND
KROA...WITH LINGERING MVFR CIGS TO THE WEST...INCLUDING
KBCB...KLWB...AND KBLF. CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST FOR KBLF AND KLWB INTO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 14Z.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME WEST 6-8KTS WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL DAYBREAK TO REACH AREAS TO THE
EAST. AFTER 13Z...EXPECT WINDS TO BE W-WNW 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS
18-20KTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME VARIABLE IN RESPONSE
TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM. THIS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
AFT 00Z...BUT VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A FAST MOVING NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SOME MID
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF I-81 AND
NORTH OF U.S. 460 WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...GUSTY WEST WINDS
LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED FOR THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND HERALD A RETURN TO GRADUALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SINKS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE U.S. WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS. FOR THE MOST PART...PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR WESTERN AREAS WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME-
TO-TIME...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...PM/RAB/WP
AVIATION...JH/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
VERY ACTIVE AND BUSY WEATHER SCENARIO SET TO IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH/SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING AN ELONGATED BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN MN THROUGH WESTERN IA. A
SMALLER BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WAS ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST RADAR MOSAIC.
OTHERWISE...A VERY MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS
OF 2 AM IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FOR TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN. EXPECTING STORMS TO
REMAIN WELL-BEHAVED THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...BUT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS MODELS SHOW
INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS TAKE PLACE OVER EASTERN IA. THIS WRAPS SOME
ELEVATED CAPE AHEAD OF IT INTO NORTHERN IL DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH OUR AREA ON THE VERY NORTHERN FRINGES OF SOME WEAKER
CAPE. APPEARS SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR AREA AS A
RESULT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS THOUGH WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WIND.
INTENSE/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SO WILL GET A
DOUBLE WHAMMY FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH 1. HEAVIER RAIN IN THE
STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION AREA NORTHWEST/WEST OF THE LOW LINING UP
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND 2. VERY STRONG NORTHWEST/WEST
SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING.
RAINFALL FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 1-2.5 INCH RANGE
WITH PERHAPS A FEW POCKETS OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. 6 HOURLY FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE 2-3.5 INCH RANGE...SO THINKING GROUND SHOULD
ABSORB MOST OF THIS WITH MINIMAL RUNOFF FOR HYDROLOGY/RIVER
CONCERNS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HIGH WIND POTENTIAL VERY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NAM SHOWS CORRIDOR OF 850-925MB LAYER WINDS OF 45-
55KT SWINGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHERN
WI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM...THESE WINDS COULD REACH THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI FROM 4 AM
WEDNESDAY TIL 8 PM THURSDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS COOL ENOUGH INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SLUSHY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. FARTHER NORTH...NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 29...COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 1-2 INCHES.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S...THEN
FALLING OFF INTO THE 40S/LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
BREEZY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
LOOKS MAINLY DRY ON FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH OF I-90 WHERE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL STILL EXIST.
A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
SOME SMALL-END CHANCE SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM THIS MORNING IN A REGION OF
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE. THE HRRR HAS BEEN DOING A DECENT JOB WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AND SHOWS IT LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND
PAST BOTH TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE
MORNING AND UPDATE LATER IF IT IS NEEDED AFTER THAT. CEILINGS
SHOULD COME DOWN AS THE COLUMN SATURATES WITH IFR EXPECTED AT KRST
AND MVFR AT KLSE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A WHILE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND MOVES IN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SURFACE LOW FROM MISSOURI. EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THIS NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH IFR CEILINGS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...IT
WILL BE DEEPENING RAPIDLY WHICH WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO COME
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AT KRST. SPEEDS WILL START
TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AT KRST WHERE GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
WIZ041-053>055-061.
MN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
MNZ086>088-094>096.
IA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
447 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE SERN U.S.
FROM A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE NC COAST SW TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT. LOCALLY...WINDS
ARE LIGHT SWLY WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE W AS THE COLD FRONT AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHIFT EWD. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...CERTAINLY
MILD BY MIDDLE MARCH STANDARDS. LOW STRATUS HAS FORMED ONCE AGAIN
AS WELL...MAINLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NE FL AT THIS TIME...AND
SHOULD BE SLIDING EWD NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE MIXED
IN WITH THE STRATUS AT TIMES THROUGH SUNRISE AS STRATUS BUILDS
DOWN TOWARD THE SFC.
.SHORT TERM...
FOR TODAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SEWD AND MOVE TO SERN GA TO
SRN AL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE OUT OF AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA WHICH WILL SPREAD E AND SE. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT FOR NE FL BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND MODEL BLEND.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MOST AREAS BY THE
AFTN HOURS. THE CHANCE OF ANY STRONG STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY MINIMAL
WITH LINGERING SUBSIDENCE AROUND 8-10 KFT AND LOW INSTABILITY WITH
SBCAPE OF NEAR 1000 J/KG. SFC TEMPS WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE LOWER
80S DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO NOT TESTING RECORDS HIGHS TODAY
LIKE RECENT DAYS.
TONIGHT...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY FADE WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT STALLED FRONT OVER SRN GA AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS OVER NRN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS FROM UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH WX FCST FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH THE GFS...EURO...AND NAM SHOWING MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE (PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES) BUT ARE A BIT DIFFERENT WITH
FRONTAL POSITION OVER AL AND SRN GA AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE...
FAVORABLE 250MB SPEED DIVERGENCE AND THE STALLED FRONT...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS UP BASED ON COMPROMISE OF MODELS AND USED LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
DISCOURAGE ANY HIGH INSTABILITY SO ONLY HAVE ISOLD TSTMS FOR NOW.
CLOUD COVER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MIDDLE SECTIONS OF THE
AREA WILL HOLD HIGHS TO LOWER VALUES...IN THE 70S MOST AREAS
EXCEPT NEAR 80 IN THE WARM SECTION OVER SRN PARTS.
A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI EVENING WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SUN.
CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRI
NIGHT...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE OUR
REGION ON FRI EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
GAINESVILLE TO ST.AUGUSTINE LINE AND SCATTERED POPS FOR NORTH
CENTRAL FL. LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW PROGGED TO TRAVEL FURTHER INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL
GA ON SAT...WHICH WILL PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 80S FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL.
FOLLOWING A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS..WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED FOR
ALL BUT NORTH CENTRAL FL. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING W/SW FLOW AND
INCREASING SPEED SHEAR...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERNS. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SAT NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION. A BAND OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WITH RAINFALL LIKELY
ENDING BEFORE DAWN ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH
THIS EVENT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE FOR
NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA...WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER T0 AN INCH FOR
NORTH CENTRAL FL. STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DRIVE A COOLER
AIR MASS INTO SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS ON SUN...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 55-6O.
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES ON SUN...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE VA CAPES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF
THE FL AND GA COASTS AT SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY REGION-WIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING OUR
AREA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR NORTHEAST FL AND
SOUTHEAST GA...WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED IN NORTH CENTRAL FL. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON SUN
NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION
RESULTING IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN COASTAL LOCATIONS...WITH A
GRADUAL DECOUPLING EXPECTED INLAND. INLAND LOWS WILL PLUNGE TO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...RANGING TO THE UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.
WIND CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S REGION-WIDE DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON MON.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON MON...WITH
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. A
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL OVER OUR
REGION...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW LATE MARCH CLIMO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA ON MON NIGHT...WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
DRIVING LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND...WITH
MID/UPPER 40S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PROGRESS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY TUES EVENING AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
HIGHS TUES WILL REBOUND TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...EXCEPT MID 60S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. LOWS TUES NIGHT WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 40S INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 50S AT THE COAST.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ON WED AS SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND A DRY AIR MASS ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE TO THE UPPER 70S
INLAND AND LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST.
A TROUGH IMPACTING CALIFORNIA WILL PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON WED NIGHT AND THURS. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE LOCALLY IN
RESPONSE TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURS AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS. LOWS WED
NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S INLAND...RANGING TO NEAR 60 AT THE
COAST. HIGHS THURS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND...WITH MID
70S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS DUE TO AN ACTIVE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT LOW-END MVFR TO OCNL IFR CIGS FOR GNV THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO PREVAILING VFR IN THE AFTN. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS AT GNV STARTING AROUND 16Z-18Z BUT
FOR NOW VCSH IS USED UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES TO INCLUDE TEMPO
GROUP. FOR REST OF TAFS...OCNL MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH 1-2 HOURS LATER PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
TSTMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN GUIDANCE/RADAR FOR
TEMPO GROUPS FOR JAX METRO TAFS. OUTSIDE OF SCT SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE AFTN...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED IN ANY SHOWER AND STORMS. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT AND/OR DISSIPATE AFTER ABOUT 23Z.
&&
.MARINE....PREDOMINATE W/SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
AREA WATERS FRIDAY AND STALL...ONLY TO MOVE BACK NWD FRI NIGHT. A
SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
ENE TO THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE TRAILED BY A COLD
FRONT SW FROM THE SFC LOW...AND WILL PUSH SE THROUGH AREA WATERS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LOOK PROBABLE STARTING SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK WITH OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 81 59 74 58 / 40 50 60 60
SSI 76 61 70 59 / 30 30 50 50
JAX 80 62 74 60 / 50 30 60 60
SGJ 78 62 73 61 / 40 20 60 60
GNV 80 63 79 60 / 60 20 60 50
OCF 81 62 80 61 / 30 20 40 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/NELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
218 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPSTATE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIN HIGH
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH MOISTURE
ALOFT LIMITING NET RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST SPC HRRR STILL INDICATING
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF AGS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA...BUT OVERALL MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO
BE RATHER LIMITED. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOOK
REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT BUT KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM DISPLAYED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT DIMINISHES FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SOME SREF
MEMBERS HAVE MORE MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHWARD. HAVE FORECASTED LOW
POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART FRIDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND INLAND EXTENT
OF MOISTURE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE FORECASTED THE HIGHEST POP
DURING THAT TIME. IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS INDICATE LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN GA. THIS WILL ALLOW
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WESTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR
LESS. WITH DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
256 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE LOOKING FOR
ONE MORE STORM TO DROP ALONG THE DIVIDE THROUGH
TONIGHT...TRIGGERING MORE SNOW AND GRAUPEL SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO. WHERE WE`VE HAD MORE PRECIPITATION FROM SHOWERS ACROSS THE
UPPER SNAKE PLAIN INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS SINCE YESTERDAY...FOG
HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL PERSIST FOR A BIT THIS MORNING. THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE SHOWERS MAKE THIS EVENING...AS
THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A CONVERGENCE BAND MOVING DOWN THE
PLAIN. THE GFS SHOWS EVERYTHING DISSIPATING ONCE IT GETS FROM
AMERICAN FALLS NORTHWEST TO CAREY. THE NAM AND THE HRRR ARE
TRENDING FARTHER SOUTHWEST BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH. HOWEVER IT PLAYS
OUT...WHERE WE SEE PRECIPITATION BE PREPARED FOR QUICK BURSTS AND
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL END LATER TODAY. AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
AND EVENTUALLY BRING BACK WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
KEYES
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST AND WE
WILL SEE A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOIST AIR OFF THE PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SNOW LEVELS BEGIN TO FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET ELEVATION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND 5500 FEET BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE VALLEY FLOORS DURING THE
DAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. RS
&&
.AVIATION...FOG DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AT KIDA WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
OF CLOUDS ALOFT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. CLOUDS
INCREASE BY 15Z AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KTS AT KIDA BY 17Z. BETWEEN THE 2...THAT SHOULD BE THE LATEST THE
FOG WILL CONTINUE. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN MVFR CEILINGS TO
KPIH...KIDA AND KSUN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL KEEP KBYI VFR. KSUN WILL BE THE MOST
QUESTIONABLE SITE AS IT WILL REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM 17/18Z TO 18/06Z....AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR FRIDAY. RS
&&
.HYDROLOGY...WITH WARMER WEATHER RETURNING BY THE WEEKEND WE ARE
LOOKING FOR QUITE A BIT OF SNOWMELT ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIER SNOW
FELL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME STREAM
RISES WILL OCCUR BUT RIGHT NOW WE ARE EXPECTING ANY TYPE OF RIVER
OR STREAM FLOODING. HOWEVER...SOME POCKETS OF SHEET FLOODING
COULD OCCUR. KEYES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
230 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...
225 AM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WEEK THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
IMPACTING WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND THERE
REMAINS THE CHANCE...AT MOST...TO SEE A LITTLE LIGHT NON-
ACCUMULATING SNOW.
A VERY BROAD UPPER CIRCULATION SPANNING ABOUT 1200 MILES ACROSS IS
CENTERED OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT
SINKS SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE UNDER THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY. THE 00Z DVN RAOB AND WELL
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA HAD IMPRESSIVE-FOR-
MARCH -32C OR COLDER 500MB TEMPERATURES WHICH IMPLIES WE SHOULD BE
UNDER SIMILAR TODAY. HIGH BASED CUMULUS SHOULD POP UP AGAIN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS INDICATION OF A SMALL SHORT WAVE
PASSING AGAIN THIS EVENING. INDICIES THAT QUANTIFY LAPSE RATES AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS...SEEMED TO DO WELL FOR
YESTERDAYS SHOWERS. THESE FORECAST VALUES FROM THE NAM AND RAP ARE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL FAVORABLE FOR COLD POCKET ALOFT
SHOWER GROWTH. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING....MAINLY NORTH AND
CENTRAL...WHICH IS THE AREA CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE FAVORS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD END UP A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DIP A BIT AND ACTUALLY APPROACH 0C BY 00Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT
STILL BRING GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW...MORE OF AN ELONGATED EAST-TO-
WEST UPPER TROUGH...WILL INCH SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MODEL TIMING FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO MORE OF MIDDAY. THIS
WILL IMPACT WHAT HIGHS ARE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR LAKE
ADJACENT AREAS SINCE WINDS WILL TURN OFF THE WATER BEHIND THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY WITH AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THAT FRONT..BUT OF A SHALLOW ENOUGH DEPTH
WHERE WE ARE NOT MENTIONING ANY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
225 AM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD AGAIN. A SHORT WAVE/UPPER LOW THAT IS PART OF
OUR CURRENT TROUGH IS PREDICTED BY THE GFS AND EC TO DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN
WITH JET SUPPORT. IF THIS STRENGTHENING HAPPENS THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION UNDER AND AROUND THE
CENTER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA ARE MORE FAVORED TO
POSSIBLY SEE SOME OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION. PRESENTLY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE -5C TO -8C FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH IF LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE COOL ENOUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW/MIX.
AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME
GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED A LARGE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
EAST COAST WHICH COULD SLOW THE UPSTREAM PROGRESSION OF THE
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE LOOK TO BE UNDER RIDGING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE WARM ADVECTION BEGINS SOMETIME FROM MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT. CPC ACCORDINGLY HAS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST UNDER
HIGHER CHANCES TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 6-10
TIME FRAME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
WHILE THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN
THINKING SHOWERS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE IL/WI STATE LINE. VFR
CIGS SPREAD SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP
TO 30 KT. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTH TODAY...AND ONE GUIDANCE MEMBER SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
COVERAGE...BUT IT COULD BE LIKE YESTERDAY WHERE A FEW SHOWERS DO
FORM. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE KEPT THE TAFS DRY. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN VEER TO NORTH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CDT
HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS MORNING. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR A
BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND THEN
SHIFT EAST. A COLD FRONT SHIFTS DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE LAKE MONDAY. THE
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD COMES TO AN END AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE LAKE MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AS GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE FIRST LOW. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHEAST AROUND 15-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW TUESDAY AND THEN
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS BEYOND TUESDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR DISSIPATED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
A WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE AVERAGED 8 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
WEAK ELEVATED CAPE...AM EXPECTING MORE INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HAVE PULLED THE 20 TO 30 POPS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST...BUT LATEST HRRR RUNS
INDICATE THERE MAY BE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT WITH THE LOW COVERAGE
EXPECTED...DECIDED TO LEAVE THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH TO
POSSIBLY 40 MPH OR HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH MIGHT BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT A WIND ADVISORY
IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
THE HIGHEST THREAT OF UNCONTROLLED GRASS FIRES WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...RH WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. THE
THREAT ASSUMES THAT TALL GRASSES AND BRUSH HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY
FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL.
FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING NORTH.
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CHANNELED VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN TYPICAL CHANGEABLE MARCH WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS DEPICT A COLD CORE CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE PLENTY OF
STRATUS ALONG WITH SOME OFF AND ON MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. THE
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON SO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WOULD
OCCUR THEN. REGARDLESS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WITH THE
PRECIPITATION RATE BEING LIGHT WE DON`T SEE ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
OTHER THAN A POSSIBLE DUSTING ON THE GRASS MAINLY AT NIGHT. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THIS CLOSED LOW THEN PHASES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...FORMING AN INTENSE NOR`EASTER
RIDING UP THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW GOING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANGEABLE MARCH WEATHER AS A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES SETS UP A ZONAL THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLDER
AIRMASS WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL FORM A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DECENT RAIN OR SNOW EVENT SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE DVN CWA.
HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT WITH REGARD TO THE
TIMING/STRENGTH AND QPF AMOUNTS OF THE SYSTEM ABOUT MID WEEK.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED...WEAKENING SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING ARE NOT
LIKELY TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS IS ALSO TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THE FORECASTS. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN
12 KTS TOWARD EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN
ILLINOIS NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA. THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND ON AN ISOLATED BASIS NEAR 3
INCHES...WERE FOCUSED IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS WERE NEAR SATURATION. AS A RESULT....
RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SLOW BUT STEADY
RISES ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT RIVER FLOODING ON THE MISSISSIPPI IS NOT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN
OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...CHANGES IN RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
HYDROLOGY...UTTECH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1104 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING AS THE RH VALUES ARE INCREASING AND
WIND SPEEDS ARE DECREASING AS SUNSET APPROACHES THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS NW FLOW EXTENDING FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK
NORTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE CU AND
A FEW SPRINKLES NEAR OUR CWA. DUE TO A SUB CLOUD LAYER OF TD
DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 20-30F THROUGH 10 KFT AGL THIS HAS MAINLY
BEEN VIRGA. IF WE WERE TO SEE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPDRAFT FORM WE
COULD SEE EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES AID PRECIP REACHING
GROUND...POSSIBLY AS A FEW SNOW FLAKES. I KEPT SPRINKLE MENTION
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HELP STABILIZE
CONDITIONS AND PUT AN END TO ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY MEASURABLE IS LOW DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY LAYER.
TONIGHT...LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT COULD INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS COLD ENOUGH
THAT WITH LIGHT WINDS LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS OUR CWA.
IF WE WEE MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
TEENS.
THURSDAY...MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER BELOW
700MB/10KFT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL. STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT WE SHOULD HAVE
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LIMITING
VERTICAL UPDRAFTS. I LEFT SPRINKLE MENTION OUT AND KEPT POPS SILENT.
DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORTS GOOD MIXING
TOMORROW...HOWEVER AS LEE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THE AIR MASS MAY
NOT SEE AS MUCH OF A RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE WILL PROBABLY
SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S (SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY). WINDS ALOFT AREA ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN...SO DESPITE GOOD MIXING WE LIKELY WONT SEE RFW CONDITIONS
DESPITE RH VALUES DROPPING TO 15 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
UPPER SYSTEM THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THEN TRACK EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND.
A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA THU-FRI AS THE UPPER LOW GETS MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE N
PLAINS. A 95 KT JET STREAK WILL BE ORIENTED FROM WESTERN MT TO
NORTHERN CO INTO NORTHERN KANSAS WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE A 12-18
HOUR PERIOD OF UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS AN INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY EVENING...GRADUALLY
MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW AS IT OVERSPREADS NORTHERN KANSAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW. AT THIS TIME THE THINKING IS
INITIAL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
ACCUMULATING GIVEN AVERAGE SOIL TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 40S AND
LIGHTER SNOW RATES...BUT AS HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES OCCUR
FRIDAY MORNING THE FORECAST REFLECTS ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S IN
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK TO MOVE OUT WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY RECOVERING TO THE MIDDLE 40S AND UP TO
AROUND 60 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z AS A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH BREAKS FREE OF THE FRONT RANGE OF NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND COLDER AIR THAT WILL
BRING A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION AFTER 00Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
A SIMILAR NIGHT TO THE PAST COUPLE LOOKS ON TAP AS CEILINGS LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES...AS MOISTURE POOLS BELOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION. LATEST
MODEL RUNS NOT SO BULLISH ON SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NWRN
GULF OVERNIGHT SO VCSH MENTION WAS REMOVED PRIOR TO SUNRISE...
ALTHOUGH POPS LINGER LATER THURSDAY THANKS TO COPIOUS
MOISTURE/DAYTIME HEATING/MEANDERING SFC FRONT. EARLY PROGS
INDICATE LOW CLOUDS RETURNING FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW...
ALTHOUGH HAVE CAPPED CONDITIONS AT LOW MVFR FOR NOW.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
UPDATE...EAST TO WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT HAS NOW RETREATED TO
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM JUST NORTH
OF LUFKIN TO JUST NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA. RADAR ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP
AT THIS TIME. NEW NAM AND LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY DOWN
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AREA-WIDE. WITH FRONT NOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HAVE INCLUDED OUR CENTRAL LOUISIANA/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS COUNTIES AND PARISHES WITH PATCHY FOG.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE MIDDLE UNITED
STATES WITH A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OVER
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WAS USHERING IN
SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO INTO
THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAD STALLED LATE THIS MORNING
AND WAS NOW RETROGRADING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS COULD BE SEEN COVERING MUCH
OF THE COASTAL REGION WHILE THINNING OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. WHILE
NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
THE RADAR WAS CLEAR THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GYRATE BACK
AND FORTH. SO...FIRST OFF EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. DO NOT EXPECT
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT. WE COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LIKE WE SAW THIS MORNING IN LAFAYETTE AND
PARTS OF CALCASIEU PARISH AGAIN AFTER 06Z. DEPENDING ON
WINDS...LOCATION OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS...WILL BE MONITORING FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO ANYTHING BUT
PATCHY FOG AT THE MOMENT. GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS GOING INSANE ON POPS
ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. I WILL BE HONEST...I`M NOT SEEING
YET UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT GUIDANCE POPS. HOWEVER...MY
MOM DID NOT RAISE NO FOOL EITHER...I WILL HEDGE UP IN CASE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS OFF THE SURFACE UP TO 850 MB WHICH MAY
ENHANCE LIFT RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. I ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS AREA EITHER. THE NAM HAD A 700MB DECENT VORT
LOBE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GYRATE THURSDAY AND WITH MORE
IMPULSED SLIDING IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WE COULD SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING BY ON SATURDAY DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN
PROBABLY TAPERING OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LOWER
WITH THIS NEXT FRONT AND THEREFORE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY
ADDITIONAL AGGRAVATION OF THE CURRENT FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY AND
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY
MORNING IN THE 40S AND PERHAPS UPPER 30`S IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
STABLE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK.
MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DAILY WITH RAIN CHANCES IMPROVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ON
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 57 75 59 73 / 20 40 40 50
LCH 64 78 64 76 / 20 40 40 50
LFT 64 78 64 76 / 20 50 50 50
BPT 65 78 65 77 / 20 40 40 50
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT MOVING AROUND THE BACK OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PUSHED THE LIGHT SNOW
BAND FURTHER WEST TO THE LANGDON TO GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS
AREA. OBS SHOW THAT SNOW HAS ENDED IN THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREA SO
WILL LET HEADLINES GO. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SNOW
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REASONABLE
GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE VORT MAX. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
HAVE SOME VERY NARROW BANDS OF HIGHER QPF. THE EPV AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE
SNOW...BUT THE RAP AT LEAST SHOWS SOME SMALL AREAS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS POPPING UP AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH
CHANCE POPS GOING...AND BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT INTO THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE IN SOME SPOTS. PROBABLY DO NOT HAVE THE EXACT
LOCATIONS RIGHT IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL TALK ABOUT ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE OTHER PRODUCTS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE UPPER LOWS
WOBBLING ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH
CONTINUING. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT TIMING WITH VORTS
MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SO JUST HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THINK THAT AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. LOWERED TONIGHTS LOWS INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW...WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD BUT THE UPPER LOWS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LEAVE OUR
REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA WHILE THE LONG TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA.
LONG RIDGE IN THE WEST WEAKENS WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
RETROGRADES A BIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.
THE GFS WAS THE FASTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ON
TUE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN AND TUE. A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER
TEMPS FOR MON AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
MAIN ISSUE THRU MID MORNING WILL BE ANY LIGHT PCPN. NOT EXPECTING
TOO MUCH RESTRICTION TO VSBY AS THE LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW BAND
QUICKLY CHANGES TO JUST LIGHT SNOW. NOT EXPECTING IT TO GET HEAVY
ENOUGH TO LOWER VSBYS TOO MUCH. MOST OF THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD END BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AFTER THIS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION. HAVE STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF MVFR CEILINGS HANGING AROUND
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ005-
017.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ006-009.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOST AREAS THIS TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AT KSPS/KLAW. A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER... CHANCES ARE
CURRENTLY TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A QPF SIGNAL OVER NORTH TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS DEEPER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED THIS
POSSIBILITY AS WELL. THUS...KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT SOUTH OF A QUANAH TEXAS TO
CHICKASHA TO MADILL LINE. NOT COMPLETELY SURE STORMS WILL OCCUR
DUE TO SOME CAPPING...THOUGH THERE SEEMS TO BE A STRONG SIGNAL
SOMETHING WILL FORM. EXACT LOCATIONS AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL...MAINLY NICKEL SIZE OR SMALL...MAY
OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO MUCAPE 200-1000 J/KG AND STRONG
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 55-65 KT. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AND
SEEMS TO BE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS
AND CLOSER TO ABILENE AND DALLAS WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE HIGHER WITH MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM NEAR FREEZING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS MOST SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSPS. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OK BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAF AT
THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE IS SET TO RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SETTING US UP FOR
OUR NEXT RAIN EVENT ON FRIDAY. AREAS IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
ALONG THE RED RIVER COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AS EARLY AS
TONIGHT...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WONT FALL UNTIL AN UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES AND
COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THAT AREA BY THEN.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RECOVER ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEAR WATCH
IN REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER. TUESDAY ESPECIALLY...AS A DRYLINE APPEARS
TO SET UP IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...LEAVING RH VALUES POTENTIALLY IN THE
TEENS IN FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING VARIES WIDELY BETWEEN THE MODELS.
MAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 41 68 44 54 / 10 10 10 40
HOBART OK 41 66 44 53 / 10 10 30 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 45 65 48 59 / 20 30 20 50
GAGE OK 30 67 36 49 / 0 0 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 34 67 38 53 / 0 0 0 40
DURANT OK 46 68 50 62 / 10 20 20 50
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/25/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
517 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...RESULTING OF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD AREA OF
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE RNK CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
FALL TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW SAGS SOUTHWARD...FALLING FROM VERY
WARM +16C LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY TO AROUND +5C BY THIS EVENING.
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY SFC WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS COMBINED WITH
NEAR FULL INSOLATION...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AGAIN TODAY.
MOS GUIDANCE VARIED HIGHLY FROM VERY WARM MAV MOS TO RATHER COOL
ECMWF MOS. HAVE LEANED FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY TOWARD THE MAV
MOS. CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A PART IN THIS...BUT OVERALL THINKING
IS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AFTER THE MORNING DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND THE NEXT ONES APPROACHING BOTH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST...WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET.
850MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE 0C EVEN INTO FRI...SO LOW TEMPS FRI
MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...APPROACHING BOTH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...HENCE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAMS...WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP IN MOST AREAS INTO FRI
MORNING AS WELL.
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER...WHICH IS
ADDRESSED SEPARATELY BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS A FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WITH ONE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SFC A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF
US. THE MODELS ARE GOING WITH A WEAKER WIND PATTERN FRIDAY BUT STILL
SOMEWHAT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY NORTH ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE. KEEPING HUMIDITY LOW DESPITE SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPS AS THEY MAX OUT FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO 60S.
EAST.
THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AT TIMES ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS FLOW DICTATES DRY
WESTERLIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TO OFF THE SC
COAST. STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF HOW FAST AND DEEP
THE SFC AND UPPER LOW ARE THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AS USUAL IS
HANDLING THIS BETTER IN TERMS OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WHERE THE
00Z NAM IS SIMILAR. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT FOLLOWED THESE
SOLUTIONS CLOSELY. BY DAWN SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE EAST TN/WRN NC MTNS...AND WORKING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TEMP FORECAST SUGGEST SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AT THE ONSET AND POSSIBLY STAYING SNOW AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV SATURDAY. STILL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY...PLUS QPF WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH AND WITH WARM GROUND MAYBE A DUSTING TO HALF INCH ON GRASSY
SFCS...IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST DEEPENS SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A SW FLOW SURGING BACK INTO THE AREA.
SFC FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SFC LOW STRENGTHENING OFF THE NC COAST.
FORECAST SOLUTION SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MTN RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL OVERALL QPF
SUGGESTS LESS THAN ADVISORY AMOUNTS AND WILL KEEP PROBABILITY LOW IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PLACES LIKE THE HOT
SPRINGS/ALLEGHANY MTN RIDGE IN BATH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN GREENBRIER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS MOUNTAIN
LAKE.
LOOK FOR LOWS SAT NIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
TO LOWER TO MID 40S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHOW A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND. FOR TODAY...DRY SURFACE AIR WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A GREAT LAKES SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. UPSTREAM NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SEND PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION FROM TIME-TO-TIME...ESPECIALLY LATE THU.
HOWEVER...ALL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA100 AT THIS POINT.
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS...WHICH SHOULD BE
ON THE ORDER OF WHAT WE SAW WED...PERHAPS A TAD STRONGER AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE
TURBULENT MIXING BEGINS AFTER DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR WSW-WNW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS AT MOST TAF SITES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST BETWEEN THE RESIDUAL FRONT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE NEXT BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS
MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST/NW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS.
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
IMPULSE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LEADS TO SOUTHERN STREAM
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN LOW CIGS AND RAIN
WITH POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS QUITE LOW EVEN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GOOD 30 DEGREE SPREADS EVEN AT THIS HOUR AT MANY
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF DECOUPLED VALLEYS. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
FAIRLY TIGHT AND RESULT IN GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRRR WIND GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED 20-22KT
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT FUEL MOISTURES FROM THE VARIOUS RAWS SITES...REVEALS
6-8 PERCENT VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...WHERE
THE WINDS ARE HIGHER...UPWARDS OF 9-10 PERCENT ACROSS THE NC
COUNTIES...WHERE MORE RAIN FELL A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. FINALLY RH
VALUES...ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY...AS HAS EVEN BEEN THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THE GFS INITIALIZED WAY TOO MOIST...SO I...AS
WELL AS SPC...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/LOWER NAM
DEWPOINTS. AS A RESULT OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS...SPC HAS OUTLOOKED
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
AN SPS FOR FIRE DANGER WAS ALREADY ISSUED ON THE DAY SHIFT WED IN
COORDINATION WITH THE NORTH CAROLINA FORESTRY SERVICE. GIVEN THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS...ONE WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE WV COUNTIES. AM GOING TO
COORDINATE WITH THE USFS BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL DECISION ON THIS.
WITH NO WETTING OF FUELS AND STILL A CONSIDERATION OF LOW
DEWPOINTS FRIDAY...FIRE WEATHER COULD AGAIN BE A CONCERN.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...AND
WINDS LIGHTER...SO NOT AS DEFINITE AS TODAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JH/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1004 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...EARLY MORNING STRATUS WAS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT TAMPA AND CANAVERAL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. SO THE STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT BEFORE MIDDAY. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH WHERE HEATING WILL BE THE
MOST LIMITED...WHILE CENTRAL/SOUTH BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S.
MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE...
AROUND 0.80 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER. AN AREA OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WAS LOCATED TO OUR NORTH ALONG/AHEAD OF QUASI STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME OF THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE WORKING INTO THE
BIG BEND REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO HELP PROPAGATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN SHOWING SOME LIGHTNING ACROSS NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH THE QUITE COLD 500MB TEMPS...MINUS 13-14 CELSIUS.
THERE WILL BE A SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS AS THE
SOUTH HALF LOOKS TOO DRY TO INITIATE ANY DEEP CONVECTION TODAY. SOME
LINGERING BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD GENERATE A FEW CELLS DOWN INTO
OSCEOLA AND THE TREASURE COAST THIS EVENING.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED TO CURRENT FORECAST...JUST SOME
MINOR POP/CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...THE STRATUS CEILINGS WILL BE BREAKING UP BETWEEN 14-15Z
THEN VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY KMCO-KTIX NORTHWARD.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS FOR DAYTIME BOATERS...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE COAST. THE
MAIN MARINER CONCERN WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE
LIGHTNING STRIKES...PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ERODE CONCERNS FOR MIN RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW THRESHOLD. INLAND VALUES SHOULD STAY 35 PERCENT OR
ABOVE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY ORANGE COUNTY SOUTH. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF ORLANDO AND TITUSVILLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
DAYTONA BEACH 88 IN 2015
ORLANDO INTL 93 IN 1921
MELBOURNE 89 IN 1963
VERO BEACH 90 IN 1976
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
906 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPED SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE AND SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AROUND SUNRISE. CURRENT AREA OF FOG/LOW
CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST PALM BEACH AREA TO THE NAPLES AREA.
THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY 10 AM AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND PLENTY OF
DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AND WITH S/SW LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
EXCEPT ALONG BOTH GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS WHERE SEA BREEZE ONSET
AROUND MIDDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE HRRR MODEL
SHOWS ONE OR TWO LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, BUT WITH PREDOMINANCE OF DRY AIR THIS
SHOULD BE THE MOST WE CAN EXPECT AS FAR AS PRECIP IS CONCERNED.
LOWERED DEW POINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND
MIXING TO THE SURFACE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. /MOLLEDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016/
AVIATION...
STRATUS DECK AROUND 400-500 FT OVER SW FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AFFECTING KAPF/NAPLES AND VICINITY SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z, WITH
PERHAPS A FEW/SCT LAYER AROUND 1000-2000 FT AT EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THAT SAME TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE OVER AND TO OUR SOUTH
SHOULD ENSURE ANOTHER MAINLY DRY AND VFR DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
WINDS WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS
STARTING BY 16Z, THEN GOING LIGHT OFFSHORE BY 02Z-03Z. /MOLLEDA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016/
.RAINY FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
.POTENTIAL INCREASE IN RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE WEEKEND...
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONCLUDE THE WORK WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH WITH SUPPORT FROM A MID-LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM HELPS CLEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE ON MONDAY, DRIER AIR
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TO KICK OFF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. BY LATE
IN THE PERIOD, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE IN TO CLOSE NEXT WEEK.
AVAILABLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBILITIES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE RANGING FROM 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNTIL THE
REINFORCING FRONT COMES IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES LOWER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WITH THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH A PEAK
OF ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING
MAXES. 02/RAG
MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES. RIP CURRENT RISK MAY INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS SWELL ENERGY BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM A
POTENTIAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA. 02/RAG
FIRE WEATHER...
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG REMAINS A CONCERN. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD AFFECT
ERC VALUES ACROSS THE REGION POSSIBLY MITIGATING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. 02/RAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 67 86 70 / 10 0 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 71 86 73 / 0 0 10 20
MIAMI 85 69 86 72 / 0 0 10 30
NAPLES 82 66 85 69 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
847 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE AXIS DROPPING THROUGH
IDAHO PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. BROAD AREA OF LOW STRATUS WITH
POCKETS OF FOG ALSO OCCURRING ALONG INTERSTATE-15 AND SPREADING
EAST TOWARD THE WYOMING BORDER. WEAK SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST CORNER...SLOWLY DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS TOWARD THE UTAH BORDER. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE FEATURE
SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CONSOLIDATED BAND OF SHOWERS LATER TODAY ALONG
COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS THROUGH THE REGION. QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS INCLUDING RAP/HRRR BUT CONSENSUS
STRENGTHENS BAND AS IT DROPS ALONG INTERSTATE-15 CORRIDOR TOWARD
POCATELLO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW UPDATES MADE THIS MORNING FOR
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS BUT GENERAL CHARACTER OF FCST REMAINS THE
SAME WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE LOOKING FOR
ONE MORE STORM TO DROP ALONG THE DIVIDE THROUGH
TONIGHT...TRIGGERING MORE SNOW AND GRAUPEL SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO. WHERE WE`VE HAD MORE PRECIPITATION FROM SHOWERS ACROSS THE
UPPER SNAKE PLAIN INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS SINCE YESTERDAY...FOG
HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL PERSIST FOR A BIT THIS MORNING. THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE SHOWERS MAKE THIS EVENING...AS
THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A CONVERGENCE BAND MOVING DOWN THE
PLAIN. THE GFS SHOWS EVERYTHING DISSIPATING ONCE IT GETS FROM
AMERICAN FALLS NORTHWEST TO CAREY. THE NAM AND THE HRRR ARE
TRENDING FARTHER SOUTHWEST BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH. HOWEVER IT PLAYS
OUT...WHERE WE SEE PRECIPITATION BE PREPARED FOR QUICK BURSTS AND
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL END LATER TODAY. AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
AND EVENTUALLY BRING BACK WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
KEYES
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST AND WE
WILL SEE A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOIST AIR OFF THE PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SNOW LEVELS BEGIN TO FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET ELEVATION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND 5500 FEET BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE VALLEY FLOORS DURING THE
DAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. RS
AVIATION...FOG DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AT KIDA WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
OF CLOUDS ALOFT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. CLOUDS
INCREASE BY 15Z AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KTS AT KIDA BY 17Z. BETWEEN THE 2...THAT SHOULD BE THE LATEST THE
FOG WILL CONTINUE. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN MVFR CEILINGS TO
KPIH...KIDA AND KSUN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL KEEP KBYI VFR. KSUN WILL BE THE MOST
QUESTIONABLE SITE AS IT WILL REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM 17/18Z TO 18/06Z....AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR FRIDAY. RS
HYDROLOGY...WITH WARMER WEATHER RETURNING BY THE WEEKEND WE ARE
LOOKING FOR QUITE A BIT OF SNOWMELT ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIER SNOW
FELL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME STREAM
RISES WILL OCCUR BUT RIGHT NOW WE ARE EXPECTING ANY TYPE OF RIVER
OR STREAM FLOODING. HOWEVER...SOME POCKETS OF SHEET FLOODING
COULD OCCUR. KEYES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
623 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...
225 AM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WEEK THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
IMPACTING WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND THERE
REMAINS THE CHANCE...AT MOST...TO SEE A LITTLE LIGHT NON-
ACCUMULATING SNOW.
A VERY BROAD UPPER CIRCULATION SPANNING ABOUT 1200 MILES ACROSS IS
CENTERED OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT
SINKS SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE UNDER THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY. THE 00Z DVN RAOB AND WELL
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA HAD IMPRESSIVE-FOR-
MARCH -32C OR COLDER 500MB TEMPERATURES WHICH IMPLIES WE SHOULD BE
UNDER SIMILAR TODAY. HIGH BASED CUMULUS SHOULD POP UP AGAIN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS INDICATION OF A SMALL SHORT WAVE
PASSING AGAIN THIS EVENING. INDICIES THAT QUANTIFY LAPSE RATES AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS...SEEMED TO DO WELL FOR
YESTERDAYS SHOWERS. THESE FORECAST VALUES FROM THE NAM AND RAP ARE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL FAVORABLE FOR COLD POCKET ALOFT
SHOWER GROWTH. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING....MAINLY NORTH AND
CENTRAL...WHICH IS THE AREA CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE FAVORS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD END UP A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DIP A BIT AND ACTUALLY APPROACH 0C BY 00Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT
STILL BRING GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW...MORE OF AN ELONGATED EAST-TO-
WEST UPPER TROUGH...WILL INCH SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MODEL TIMING FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO MORE OF MIDDAY. THIS
WILL IMPACT WHAT HIGHS ARE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR LAKE
ADJACENT AREAS SINCE WINDS WILL TURN OFF THE WATER BEHIND THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY WITH AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THAT FRONT..BUT OF A SHALLOW ENOUGH DEPTH
WHERE WE ARE NOT MENTIONING ANY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
225 AM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD AGAIN. A SHORT WAVE/UPPER LOW THAT IS PART OF
OUR CURRENT TROUGH IS PREDICTED BY THE GFS AND EC TO DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN
WITH JET SUPPORT. IF THIS STRENGTHENING HAPPENS THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION UNDER AND AROUND THE
CENTER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA ARE MORE FAVORED TO
POSSIBLY SEE SOME OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION. PRESENTLY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE -5C TO -8C FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH IF LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE COOL ENOUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW/MIX.
AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME
GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED A LARGE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
EAST COAST WHICH COULD SLOW THE UPSTREAM PROGRESSION OF THE
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE LOOK TO BE UNDER RIDGING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE WARM ADVECTION BEGINS SOMETIME FROM MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT. CPC ACCORDINGLY HAS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST UNDER
HIGHER CHANCES TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 6-10
TIME FRAME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN END OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THINKING MOSTLY CLEAR TO SCT CIGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS SPREAD SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WEST
WINDS SHOULD EASILY GUST INTO THE LOW 30 KT RANGE. THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHIFTS SOUTH TODAY...AND
ONLY ONE GUIDANCE MEMBER SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY FORM. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE SOUTH OF
THE IL/WI STATE LINE...BUT IT COULD BE LIKE YESTERDAY WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS DO FORM. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE KEPT THE TAFS DRY.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN VEER TO NORTH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 10
KT. A MVFR DECK MAY MOVE OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS OFF OF THE
LAKE...BUT THINKING IF IT DOES PUSH INLAND...IT WILL BE AFTER 18Z
FRIDAY.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CDT
HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS MORNING. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR A
BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND THEN
SHIFT EAST. A COLD FRONT SHIFTS DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE LAKE MONDAY. THE
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD COMES TO AN END AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE LAKE MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AS GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE FIRST LOW. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHEAST AROUND 15-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW TUESDAY AND THEN
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS BEYOND TUESDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
720 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR DISSIPATED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
A WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE AVERAGED 8 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
WEAK ELEVATED CAPE...AM EXPECTING MORE INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HAVE PULLED THE 20 TO 30 POPS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST...BUT LATEST HRRR RUNS
INDICATE THERE MAY BE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT WITH THE LOW COVERAGE
EXPECTED...DECIDED TO LEAVE THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH TO
POSSIBLY 40 MPH OR HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH MIGHT BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT A WIND ADVISORY
IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
THE HIGHEST THREAT OF UNCONTROLLED GRASS FIRES WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...RH WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. THE
THREAT ASSUMES THAT TALL GRASSES AND BRUSH HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY
FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL.
FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING NORTH.
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CHANNELED VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN TYPICAL CHANGEABLE MARCH WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS DEPICT A COLD CORE CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE PLENTY OF
STRATUS ALONG WITH SOME OFF AND ON MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. THE
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON SO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WOULD
OCCUR THEN. REGARDLESS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WITH THE
PRECIPITATION RATE BEING LIGHT WE DON`T SEE ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
OTHER THAN A POSSIBLE DUSTING ON THE GRASS MAINLY AT NIGHT. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THIS CLOSED LOW THEN PHASES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...FORMING AN INTENSE NOR`EASTER
RIDING UP THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW GOING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANGEABLE MARCH WEATHER AS A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES SETS UP A ZONAL THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLDER
AIRMASS WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL FORM A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DECENT RAIN OR SNOW EVENT SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE DVN CWA.
HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT WITH REGARD TO THE
TIMING/STRENGTH AND QPF AMOUNTS OF THE SYSTEM ABOUT MID WEEK.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
A WEST WIND WILL INCREASE AND GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KCID/KDBQ THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN
ILLINOIS NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA. THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND ON AN ISOLATED BASIS NEAR 3
INCHES...WERE FOCUSED IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS WERE NEAR SATURATION. AS A RESULT....
RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SLOW BUT STEADY
RISES ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT RIVER FLOODING ON THE MISSISSIPPI IS NOT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN
OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...CHANGES IN RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
HYDROLOGY...UTTECH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1005 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
IMPRESSIVE 500 MB VORT MOVED WEST EARLY THIS MORNING FROM DULUTH
AREA DUE WEST TOWARD GRAND FORKS AND IS NOW BTWN GFK/DVL. THIS
SYSTEM IS QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECASTED YESTERDAY AND HENCE
A STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER ERN ND/RRV. MOST AREAS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE SO KEPT THAT
IDEA FROM PREV FCST. SNOW IS ENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THIS
SNOW ENDING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE VORT EVENTUALLY
SHIFTS SOUTH. CURRENT FCST IN FINE SHAPE SO ONLY SMALL CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS...BUT KEPT THE GENERAL IDEA OF SNOW
PUSHING SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. SOME NARROW
BANDING OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WITH ND AND MN DOT MAPS INDICATING SNOW COVERED ROADS
PUT OUT AN SPS FOR SNOW TO ALERT THOSE ON THE MORNING COMMUTE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT MOVING AROUND THE BACK OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PUSHED THE LIGHT SNOW
BAND FURTHER WEST TO THE LANGDON TO GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS
AREA. OBS SHOW THAT SNOW HAS ENDED IN THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREA SO
WILL LET HEADLINES GO. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SNOW
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REASONABLE
GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE VORT MAX. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
HAVE SOME VERY NARROW BANDS OF HIGHER QPF. THE EPV AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE
SNOW...BUT THE RAP AT LEAST SHOWS SOME SMALL AREAS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS POPPING UP AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH
CHANCE POPS GOING...AND BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT INTO THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE IN SOME SPOTS. PROBABLY DO NOT HAVE THE EXACT
LOCATIONS RIGHT IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL TALK ABOUT ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE OTHER PRODUCTS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE UPPER LOWS
WOBBLING ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH
CONTINUING. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT TIMING WITH VORTS
MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SO JUST HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THINK THAT AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. LOWERED TONIGHTS LOWS INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW...WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD BUT THE UPPER LOWS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LEAVE OUR
REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA WHILE THE LONG TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA.
LONG RIDGE IN THE WEST WEAKENS WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
RETROGRADES A BIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.
THE GFS WAS THE FASTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ON
TUE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN AND TUE. A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER
TEMPS FOR MON AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
MOST CIGS ARE MVFR TO IFR...WITH ALL TAF SITES REPORTING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OF VARIOUS VISIBILITIES. KFAR HAS BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES...WITH THE OTHER SITES RANGING FROM 2 TO 5SM. HARD TO PIN
DOWN EXACT VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING IN AND OUT
OVER TAF SITES...BUT HAVE SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR HEAVIER BANDS AT
KFAR AND KDVL WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WILL HANG AROUND LONGER
AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THINK THERE
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO JUST FLURRIES AND VIS OVER
6SM...STARTING IN THE NORTHEASTERN TAF SITES...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF COMPLETELY BY LATE IN THE DAY. CIGS WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT TO
THE HIGHER END OF MVFR...BUT THINK AT LEAST SOME TAF SITES WILL GO
BACK DOWN TO IFR LATER TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS THIS MORNING...AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A WHILE
LONGER BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS...BUT KEPT THE GENERAL IDEA OF SNOW
PUSHING SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. SOME NARROW
BANDING OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WITH ND AND MN DOT MAPS INDICATING SNOW COVERED ROADS
PUT OUT AN SPS FOR SNOW TO ALERT THOSE ON THE MORNING COMMUTE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT MOVING AROUND THE BACK OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PUSHED THE LIGHT SNOW
BAND FURTHER WEST TO THE LANGDON TO GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS
AREA. OBS SHOW THAT SNOW HAS ENDED IN THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREA SO
WILL LET HEADLINES GO. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SNOW
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REASONABLE
GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE VORT MAX. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
HAVE SOME VERY NARROW BANDS OF HIGHER QPF. THE EPV AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE
SNOW...BUT THE RAP AT LEAST SHOWS SOME SMALL AREAS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS POPPING UP AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH
CHANCE POPS GOING...AND BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT INTO THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE IN SOME SPOTS. PROBABLY DO NOT HAVE THE EXACT
LOCATIONS RIGHT IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL TALK ABOUT ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE OTHER PRODUCTS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE UPPER LOWS
WOBBLING ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH
CONTINUING. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT TIMING WITH VORTS
MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SO JUST HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THINK THAT AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. LOWERED TONIGHTS LOWS INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW...WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD BUT THE UPPER LOWS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LEAVE OUR
REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA WHILE THE LONG TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA.
LONG RIDGE IN THE WEST WEAKENS WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
RETROGRADES A BIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.
THE GFS WAS THE FASTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ON
TUE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN AND TUE. A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER
TEMPS FOR MON AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
MOST CIGS ARE MVFR TO IFR...WITH ALL TAF SITES REPORTING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OF VARIOUS VISIBILITIES. KFAR HAS BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES...WITH THE OTHER SITES RANGING FROM 2 TO 5SM. HARD TO PIN
DOWN EXACT VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING IN AND OUT
OVER TAF SITES...BUT HAVE SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR HEAVIER BANDS AT
KFAR AND KDVL WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WILL HANG AROUND LONGER
AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THINK THERE
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO JUST FLURRIES AND VIS OVER
6SM...STARTING IN THE NORTHEASTERN TAF SITES...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF COMPLETELY BY LATE IN THE DAY. CIGS WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT TO
THE HIGHER END OF MVFR...BUT THINK AT LEAST SOME TAF SITES WILL GO
BACK DOWN TO IFR LATER TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS THIS MORNING...AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A WHILE
LONGER BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1026 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...RESULTING OF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT THURSDAY...
EXPECTING FAIR WEATHER FOR ST. PATRICKS DAY WITH CONDITIONS QUITE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS RNK 12Z SOUNDING IS QUITE DRY AND
SATELLITE INDICATES JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD BE THOROUGHLY MIXED THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP BRING
SOME GUSTY WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MAIN CONCERN ARE POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH VALUES...
GUSTY WINDS...AND LOWERING FUEL MOISTURE. DO NOT EXPECT TO MEET
RED FLAG CRITERIA SO THE GOING SPSS HIGHLIGHTING THE INCREASED
FIRE DANGER LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE SITUATION.
PREVIOUS AFD...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD AREA OF
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE RNK CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
FALL TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW SAGS SOUTHWARD...FALLING FROM VERY
WARM +16C LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY TO AROUND +5C BY THIS EVENING.
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY SFC WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS COMBINED WITH
NEAR FULL INSOLATION...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AGAIN TODAY.
MOS GUIDANCE VARIED HIGHLY FROM VERY WARM MAV MOS TO RATHER COOL
ECMWF MOS. HAVE LEANED FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY TOWARD THE MAV
MOS. CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A PART IN THIS...BUT OVERALL THINKING
IS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AFTER THE MORNING DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND THE NEXT ONES APPROACHING BOTH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST...WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET.
850MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE 0C EVEN INTO FRI...SO LOW TEMPS FRI
MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...APPROACHING BOTH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...HENCE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAMS...WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP IN MOST AREAS INTO FRI
MORNING AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS A FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WITH ONE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SFC A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF
US. THE MODELS ARE GOING WITH A WEAKER WIND PATTERN FRIDAY BUT STILL
SOMEWHAT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY NORTH ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE. KEEPING HUMIDITY LOW DESPITE SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPS AS THEY MAX OUT FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO 60S.
EAST.
THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AT TIMES ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS FLOW DICTATES DRY
WESTERLIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TO OFF THE SC
COAST. STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF HOW FAST AND DEEP
THE SFC AND UPPER LOW ARE THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AS USUAL IS
HANDLING THIS BETTER IN TERMS OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WHERE THE
00Z NAM IS SIMILAR. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT FOLLOWED THESE
SOLUTIONS CLOSELY. BY DAWN SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE EAST TN/WRN NC MTNS...AND WORKING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TEMP FORECAST SUGGEST SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AT THE ONSET AND POSSIBLY STAYING SNOW AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV SATURDAY. STILL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY...PLUS QPF WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH AND WITH WARM GROUND MAYBE A DUSTING TO HALF INCH ON GRASSY
SFCS...IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST DEEPENS SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A SW FLOW SURGING BACK INTO THE AREA.
SFC FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SFC LOW STRENGTHENING OFF THE NC COAST.
FORECAST SOLUTION SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MTN RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL OVERALL QPF
SUGGESTS LESS THAN ADVISORY AMOUNTS AND WILL KEEP PROBABILITY LOW IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PLACES LIKE THE HOT
SPRINGS/ALLEGHANY MTN RIDGE IN BATH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN GREENBRIER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS MOUNTAIN
LAKE.
LOOK FOR LOWS SAT NIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
TO LOWER TO MID 40S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHOW A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND. FOR TODAY...DRY SURFACE AIR WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A GREAT LAKES SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. UPSTREAM NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SEND PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION FROM TIME-TO-TIME...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ALL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA100 AT THIS
POINT THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS...WHICH SHOULD BE
ON THE ORDER OF WHAT WE SAW WED...PERHAPS A TAD STRONGER AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE
TURBULENT MIXING BEGINS AFTER DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR WSW-WNW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS AT MOST TAF SITES. THUS...WE SHOULD
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SHARPLY AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE
EQUALLY AS QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY EVENING AND VEER MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST BETWEEN THE RESIDUAL FRONT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE NEXT BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS
MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST/NW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS.
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
IMPULSE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LEADS TO SOUTHERN STREAM
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN LOW CIGS AND RAIN
WITH POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS QUITE LOW EVEN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GOOD 30 DEGREE SPREADS EVEN AT THIS HOUR AT MANY
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF DECOUPLED VALLEYS. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
FAIRLY TIGHT AND RESULT IN GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRRR WIND GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED 20-22KT
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT FUEL MOISTURES FROM THE VARIOUS RAWS SITES...REVEALS
6-8 PERCENT VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...WHERE
THE WINDS ARE HIGHER...UPWARDS OF 9-10 PERCENT ACROSS THE NC
COUNTIES...WHERE MORE RAIN FELL A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. FINALLY RH
VALUES...ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY...AS HAS EVEN BEEN THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THE GFS INITIALIZED WAY TOO MOIST...SO I...AS
WELL AS SPC...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/LOWER NAM
DEWPOINTS. AS A RESULT OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS...SPC HAS OUTLOOKED
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
AN SPS FOR FIRE DANGER WAS ALREADY ISSUED ON THE DAY SHIFT WED IN
COORDINATION WITH THE NORTH CAROLINA FORESTRY SERVICE. GIVEN THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS...ONE WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE WV COUNTIES. AM GOING TO
COORDINATE WITH THE USFS BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL DECISION ON THIS.
WITH NO WETTING OF FUELS AND STILL A CONSIDERATION OF LOW
DEWPOINTS FRIDAY...FIRE WEATHER COULD AGAIN BE A CONCERN.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...AND
WINDS LIGHTER...SO NOT AS DEFINITE AS TODAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS/WP
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JH/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
730 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...RESULTING OF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD AREA OF
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE RNK CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
FALL TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW SAGS SOUTHWARD...FALLING FROM VERY
WARM +16C LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY TO AROUND +5C BY THIS EVENING.
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY SFC WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS COMBINED WITH
NEAR FULL INSOLATION...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AGAIN TODAY.
MOS GUIDANCE VARIED HIGHLY FROM VERY WARM MAV MOS TO RATHER COOL
ECMWF MOS. HAVE LEANED FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY TOWARD THE MAV
MOS. CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A PART IN THIS...BUT OVERALL THINKING
IS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AFTER THE MORNING DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND THE NEXT ONES APPROACHING BOTH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST...WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET.
850MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE 0C EVEN INTO FRI...SO LOW TEMPS FRI
MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...APPROACHING BOTH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...HENCE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAMS...WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP IN MOST AREAS INTO FRI
MORNING AS WELL.
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER...WHICH IS
ADDRESSED SEPARATELY BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS A FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WITH ONE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SFC A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF
US. THE MODELS ARE GOING WITH A WEAKER WIND PATTERN FRIDAY BUT STILL
SOMEWHAT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY NORTH ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE. KEEPING HUMIDITY LOW DESPITE SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPS AS THEY MAX OUT FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO 60S.
EAST.
THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AT TIMES ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS FLOW DICTATES DRY
WESTERLIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TO OFF THE SC
COAST. STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF HOW FAST AND DEEP
THE SFC AND UPPER LOW ARE THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AS USUAL IS
HANDLING THIS BETTER IN TERMS OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WHERE THE
00Z NAM IS SIMILAR. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT FOLLOWED THESE
SOLUTIONS CLOSELY. BY DAWN SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE EAST TN/WRN NC MTNS...AND WORKING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TEMP FORECAST SUGGEST SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AT THE ONSET AND POSSIBLY STAYING SNOW AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV SATURDAY. STILL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY...PLUS QPF WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH AND WITH WARM GROUND MAYBE A DUSTING TO HALF INCH ON GRASSY
SFCS...IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST DEEPENS SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A SW FLOW SURGING BACK INTO THE AREA.
SFC FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SFC LOW STRENGTHENING OFF THE NC COAST.
FORECAST SOLUTION SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MTN RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL OVERALL QPF
SUGGESTS LESS THAN ADVISORY AMOUNTS AND WILL KEEP PROBABILITY LOW IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PLACES LIKE THE HOT
SPRINGS/ALLEGHANY MTN RIDGE IN BATH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN GREENBRIER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS MOUNTAIN
LAKE.
LOOK FOR LOWS SAT NIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
TO LOWER TO MID 40S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHOW A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND. FOR TODAY...DRY SURFACE AIR WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A GREAT LAKES SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. UPSTREAM NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SEND PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION FROM TIME-TO-TIME...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ALL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA100 AT THIS
POINT THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS...WHICH SHOULD BE
ON THE ORDER OF WHAT WE SAW WED...PERHAPS A TAD STRONGER AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE
TURBULENT MIXING BEGINS AFTER DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR WSW-WNW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS AT MOST TAF SITES. THUS...WE SHOULD
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SHARPLY AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE
EQUALLY AS QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY EVENING AND VEER MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST BETWEEN THE RESIDUAL FRONT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE NEXT BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS
MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST/NW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS.
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
IMPULSE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LEADS TO SOUTHERN STREAM
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN LOW CIGS AND RAIN
WITH POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS QUITE LOW EVEN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GOOD 30 DEGREE SPREADS EVEN AT THIS HOUR AT MANY
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF DECOUPLED VALLEYS. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
FAIRLY TIGHT AND RESULT IN GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRRR WIND GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED 20-22KT
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT FUEL MOISTURES FROM THE VARIOUS RAWS SITES...REVEALS
6-8 PERCENT VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...WHERE
THE WINDS ARE HIGHER...UPWARDS OF 9-10 PERCENT ACROSS THE NC
COUNTIES...WHERE MORE RAIN FELL A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. FINALLY RH
VALUES...ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY...AS HAS EVEN BEEN THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THE GFS INITIALIZED WAY TOO MOIST...SO I...AS
WELL AS SPC...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/LOWER NAM
DEWPOINTS. AS A RESULT OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS...SPC HAS OUTLOOKED
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
AN SPS FOR FIRE DANGER WAS ALREADY ISSUED ON THE DAY SHIFT WED IN
COORDINATION WITH THE NORTH CAROLINA FORESTRY SERVICE. GIVEN THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS...ONE WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE WV COUNTIES. AM GOING TO
COORDINATE WITH THE USFS BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL DECISION ON THIS.
WITH NO WETTING OF FUELS AND STILL A CONSIDERATION OF LOW
DEWPOINTS FRIDAY...FIRE WEATHER COULD AGAIN BE A CONCERN.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...AND
WINDS LIGHTER...SO NOT AS DEFINITE AS TODAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JH/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
610 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
LOW PRESSURE THAT GAVE THE AREA HEAVY RAIN/GUSTY WINDS/SNOW OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF MARQUETTE MI OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING ELONGATED
E/W CLOSED LOW ROTATING SOUTHWARD FROM UPPER MI THROUGH NORTHERN
MN/ND. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM THE TWIN CITIES INTO WEST
CENTRAL/CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
FOR TODAY...WILL SEE THAT MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH SWING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR WIDESPREAD CUMULUS/SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ANTICIPATING MOSTLY RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT COULD SE A FEW FLAKES UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. BECAUSE OF THE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DEEPER
MIXING WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-35 MPH
RANGE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY IN THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WI.
ISOLATED RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THAT TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE 20S.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...A
LITTLE BRIGHTER NORTHEAST OF I-94 AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ACROSS THAT
AREA ON NORTHEAST WINDS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
THE MIDDLE 40S.
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO IOWA. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT IF
ANYTHING...GENERALLY JUST A DUSTING EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
LIGHT SNOW/RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW SINKS SOUTHEAST INTO IL FROM IA. HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OTHERWISE...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 30S
TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY LOOK PRECIPITATION-FREE WITH MID-
LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW AT
NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD LAKE
HURON. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW...EXPECT TO
SEE THE CLOUDS SPREAD BACK IN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CEILINGS. THE 17.09Z HRRR SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE MOST OF
THE OTHER MESO-SCALE MODELS KEEP ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS NORTH
OF BOTH TAF SITES. THE 17.06Z NAM DOES NOT SHOW MUCH LIFT THROUGH
THE SATURATED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES HAVE GOOD LAPSE RATES
UP THROUGH 700 MB SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE EVEN A VCSH AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME GUSTY
WEST WINDS...BUT NO WHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
DEVELOPS AND CUTS OFF THE MIXING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING TO PROMPT RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
THE BLACK/TREMPEALEAU AND YELLOW RIVERS.
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS...PLEASE VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
246 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.
THE FIRST OF TWO 100+KT JET STREAKS IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO WNW PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
FRIDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH FOR THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES ARE INITIALLY BORDERLINE
AND CONDITIONS ARE A TAD DRIER. MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT
MOVING DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE NE BRINGING A MORE
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH MOISTURE BUTTED UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS TO BRING
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SNOW. HRRR SHOWING SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS
FRONT FOR THE EXTREME NE COUNTIES BUT THE MODEL HAS HAD A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM SO STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THOSE COUNTIES. BANDING WILL BECOME A MAJOR FORECASTING CHALLENGE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE EXACT LOCATION OF SET-UP IS DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN. MODELS STILL SHOWING A SECONDARY JET STREAK MOVING
SE INTO THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A SECONDARY SURGE
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND LARIMER COUNTY AFTER A
LULL IN THE EVENING. WINTER STORM WARNING IS OUT UNTIL 6 PM
FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONTINUED SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO SHOW
UPSLOPE INCREASING OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
PORTIONS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME.ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM SO MELTING MAY OCCUR
AT FIRST BUT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO FREEZE AND SNOW TO START TO
ACCUMULATE.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLIER ONSET OF
CLOUDS.TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE
40S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE EXTREME NE AND SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE THE CLOUDS DID NOT QUITE REACH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
TURN MORE NE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS AIRMASS BECOMES MORE SUBSIDENT.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS NEARLY CENTERED OVERHEAD SO CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING TO MIDNIGHT OR LATER. FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.
FOR SATURDAY...DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS STILL PERSISTENT SHOWING MORE MOISTURE IN THIS
FLOW SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE. IT WILL STILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND AND NO
DOWNSLOPE.
BY SUNDAY...LEE TROUGHING AND WARM ADVECTION OCCURS. EVEN WITH
SOME LINGERING SNOW COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RISE INTO THE MID 50S ON THE PLAINS.
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE. GFS SEEMS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH A PIECE OF THE NEXT TROUGH REACHING THE FORECAST
AREA LATE MONDAY...BUT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA. WILL LOWER TEMPS A
BIT FROM GUIDANCE AND HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE LOWEST OF ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MUTIPLE DISTURBANCES PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
KEEP LOWERED CEILINGS AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST. THE INSTABILTY
WILL CREATE BANDING THAT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
LESS THAN A MILE. OTHERWISE SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES STILL EXPECTED BY TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO
MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING BRINGING WINDS TO A NE DIRECTION WITH
SOME GUSTING UPTO 25 MPH.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
FRIDAY FOR COZ036-039>045.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ031-033-035-
038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...BOWEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE MAINE AND
CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH
THIS WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH AND
STRENGTHENS OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER
TO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE I95 CORRIDOR AND THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AFTER THE INVERSION BROKE LATE
THIS MORNING, WINDS BEGAN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. LAST HOUR, THE
REGION WAS SEEING GUSTS TO ABOUT 20-25 MPH, BUT IN THE SHOWERS,
WINDS WERE GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH.
THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A
DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE SHOWERS, SO AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET, THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE. THE HRRR DOES CARRY THE
REMAINING SHOWERS OFF THE COAST. WE KEPT A VERY LOW POP
REFERENCE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
30S ACROSS THE POCONOS. UPPER 30S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BERKS, THE
LEHIGH VALLEY, PARTS OF NORTHWEST NJ, AND THE PINES OF SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY. ELSEWHERE, LOW 40S ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WHEN THE SUN SETS. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT, COMING IN FROM THE NORTH, WILL TRACK THROUGH ABOUT
2/3RDS OF CWA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TOMORROW EVENING.
IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE. THAT SAID, I DON`T
HAVE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN SHORE.
WE COULD SEE ABOUT A 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. I`VE
PAINTED HIGH IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE POCONOS AND THE MID 60S
ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE.
WINDS, LIKE TODAY, ARE GOING TO BE NOTICEABLE ONCE THE INVERSION
BREAKS. WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE LOOKS LIKE
A GOOD BET.
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING WITH THE FOG.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THE COASTAL STORM
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE STORM WITH SEVERAL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS THE
FASTEST, WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THE NAM AND CANADIAN ARE
GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO. THE GFS IS INDICATING THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE
THE ECMWF DOESN`T BRING MUCH IN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CANADIAN
AND NAM GENERALLY BRING PRECIPITATION IN DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SO FOR NOW, WE`VE INCREASE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTH. SUNDAY HAS THE
HIGHEST POPS EVERYWHERE AS THIS WILL THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR
PRECIPITATION BASED ON CONSENSUS WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. AS WE
PROGRESS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST CLEARING THE
PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH ALL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS, SO WE`LL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT SUNDAY.
THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHAT THE P-TYPES WILL BE. AS ALWAYS,
BUT EVEN MORE SO IN THIS TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN SEASONS, THE
THERMAL PROFILE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON WHERE
PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW OR RAIN, OR A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW. PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES AREAS
BASICALLY RIGHT ALONG, AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT. HOWEVER, WITH
WARM GROUND AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES, SNOW AMOUNTS COULD POSSIBLY
LIMITED. THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE WON`T GET AN ACCUMULATION. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD BEGIN AS SNOW, THEN MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AT TIMES, THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE IT ENDS. FOR AREAS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALL
SNOW, WE COULD SEE AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW, WHILE AREAS THAT
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN MAY NOT SEE MUCH AT ALL. AREAS IN BETWEEN
COULD SEE MAYBE 1-2 INCHES, WITH LESS FOR THOSE WHO MIX. AS
USUAL, THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES,
SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
THE LOW WILL BE LIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA MONDAY, WHICH WILL
KEEP OUR AREA UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME SHOWERS COULD AFFECT OUR AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW,
ESPECIALLY AS WE`LL BE UNDER THE COOL POOL OF THE TROUGH ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS WELL. WINDS MONDAY COULD
GUST 25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF
OUR AREA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT MAY POSSIBLY STALL OUT
TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AS A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY DRAPED BACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
MEANWHILE, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES MAY
TRAVERSE THE AREA WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW, WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR, EXCEPT MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS GUSTING IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE WILL
SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, BUT WITHOUT THE MORNING FOG. VFR,
EXCEPT MVFR IN SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TOPPING
OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR, PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...VFR, THOUGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. LOWERING
CONDITIONS LIKELY NOT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR EARLY, LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR
WITH SNOW AND RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
20-25 KNOTS.
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR, ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. STRONG WIND GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WINDS ARE SIMPLY NOT MIXING DOWN OUTSIDE OF THE
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID, EXPECT WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE. IN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS, WINDS COULD GUST FOR A
BRIEF TIME UP TO 30 KT. SINCE ANY WIND GUST IN EXCESS OF 25 KT
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN, WE`LL COVER WITH THE MWW OR MWS.
TONIGHT...THE WEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY. WE`LL SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH WINDS IN
THE 25 TO 40 KT JUST OFF THE SURFACE, BUT WITH THE INVERSION IN
PLACE, WE`RE NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO MIX DOWN ENTIRELY. OUR VERY
NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BAYS WERE THE CONCERN TODAY, THE LAND/WATER
INTERFACE. THE SAME GOES FOR TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EXPECTED.
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF COASTAL STORM.
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTING
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REACH AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS, AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE STORM, AND MONDAY BEHIND THE
STORM.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL LOW RH VALUES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 25-35 MPH BOTH
AFTERNOONS, AND RH VALUES COULD LOWER INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR SOME
AREAS. AFTER DISCUSSING WITH STATE PARTNERS, IT WAS DETERMINED THAT
THE FUELS HAVE NOT DRIED TO CRITICAL LEVELS. SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY ENHANCED STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
COORDINATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IF THERE ARE ANY CHANGES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
327 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORMS WERE AFFECTING FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS IN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE STATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SOME CONVECTION SOUTHWARD TOWARDS ORLANDO/CANAVERAL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MODEL ALSO DEVELOPS SHOWERS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN BREVARD AFTER SUNSET. THIS LOOKS
POSSIBLE AS AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WAS PUSHING INLAND AROUND
THE CAPE...AND ALSO FOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...SO
HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE INTERIOR SINCE THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY YIELDING
SOME FOG/STRATUS...AND NO AIR MASS CHANGE HAS OCCURRED.
FRI...THE 12Z GFS SHOWED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING OFFSHORE TO
OUR NORTH WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF IT REACHING INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A VERY SHALLOW LAYER. THERE WILL BE A
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT THOUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EARLIER AND MOVE MUCH FARTHER INLAND.
THE GFS SHOWED LIMITED MOISTURE TO START OFF THE DAY...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. AS A RESULT...THE 12Z MOS POPS
CAME IN QUITE LOW...RANGING FROM 40 PERCENT NORTH TO 10 PERCENT
SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY THOUGH...THE MOS POPS GO UP
AFTER SUNSET. DO NOT WANT TO GO AS LOW AS THE LATEST MOS...BUT
HAVE TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST VALUES DOWN ABOUT 10 PERCENT.
EXPECT SOME DIFFUSE MORNING SUNSHINE THROUGH CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS
AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO QUICKER SEA BREEZE ONSET. IT WILL CONTINUE
QUITE COLD ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS FORECAST MINUS 11-13 CELSIUS.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF AN IMPULSE ALOFT APPROACHING LATE IN
THE DAY...SO A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON-EVENING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
WITH LATEST INDICATIONS SHOWING THIS CHANCE WOULD FAVOR THE NORTH
INTERIOR.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING THAT SAT AND SAT
NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN. INCREASED
DEPTH OF MOISTURE WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THE -12C TO -14C
RANGE INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT EVENING.
AND THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE AFTN INTO THE
EVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN PUSHING INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT ASSOCD WITH THE FRONT. SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AROUND
60 PERCENT POPS SAT AND AROUND 50 PERCENT SAT NIGHT. HIGHS MID
80S...LOWS LOW AND MID 60S.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...MID LEVEL/500MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST TO FLORIDA SUN NIGHT. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST IT PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
SUN AND SUN NIGHT. GFS LOOKS TO HAVE CHANGED IT THINKING ABOUT THE
JET BY HAVING JET CORE/MAX LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE GA/SC COAST AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT PUSH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN AND SUN
EVENING MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE DEEP ENOUGH...500MB TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE -12C TO -14C RANGE AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES STILL
CROSSING OVERHEAD WOULD TEND TO KEEP IN THE 60 PERCENT AREA SUN
TAPERING OFF TO 30 PERCENT SUN EVENING. GFS SHOWING DECREASING
MOISTURE RIBBON OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING WITH DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES. CLOUD COVER KEEPS HIGHS MID 70S. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MID 50S SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS EXTENDED MON-THU...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
CENTER WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON TUE AND BEGIN TO
MODIFY THE AIR MASS...SO THE COOL SHOT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. HIGH
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S ON MONDAY (LOWER 70S FAR
SOUTH) WITH LOWS TUE MORNING IN THE MID 40S DOWN TO CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WED
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY
NORTH OF KMCO-KTIX INTO EARLY EVENING. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTHWARD TO KMLB...THEN VFR...EXCEPT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE
NIGHT FOG AGAIN. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS YET BUT IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS OVER THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND ADVECT THE FOG INLAND FROM THE
WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA SLOWER. DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON FRI AND SHOULD EXPAND FARTHER SOUTHWARD. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THE BAHAMAS WILL WEAKEN AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO WEAKEN WITH WIND DIRECTIONS LOOKING QUITE VARIABLE AND SPEEDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE MAIN MARINER HAZARD WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET WILL BE DUE
MAINLY TO A NORTHEAST SWELL WITH PERIODS 12-14 SECONDS.
SAT...THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING
THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR MARINERS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS FRI WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH AND S/SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. ON SAT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTH OF THE
WATERS WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME
OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER LAND AND MOVE OFFSHORE COULD BE
STRONG.
SUN-MON...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST EARLY
SUNDAY WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT BACK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. A
BREEZY WEST FLOW IS EXPECTED EARLY THEN FRESHENING NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW TO NEAR 20 KNOTS IS FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND
THE FRONT. A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EXISTS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CANAVERAL. WINDS MON SHOULD HOLD FROM THE
NORTH AND LIKELY BE IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. SO A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF STREAM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 64 80 65 80 / 20 40 60 50
MCO 67 85 68 83 / 20 30 40 40
MLB 66 82 69 82 / 20 30 40 50
VRB 63 84 67 83 / 20 20 30 50
LEE 66 84 67 82 / 20 30 40 30
SFB 65 83 67 83 / 20 40 50 40
ORL 68 85 69 83 / 20 30 40 40
FPR 63 84 67 83 / 20 20 30 50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THUS FAR TODAY...IT HAS BEEN THE SAME OLE STORY WRT GULF COAST
CONVECTION THIS YEAR WITH MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA BECOMING CUTOFF
AT THE EXPENSE OF GULF DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SPC RAP INDICES SHOWING A VERY SHARP
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. BUT DESPITE VALUES CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG ALONG
OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN BORDER...CONVECTION AS MENTIONED REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THIS GRADIENT AND CANT REALLY GET ANY TRANSPORT NORTH OF
THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. INSTEAD...STARTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE ACTUALLY CAPE ZONE AS OPPOSED TO ACTIVITY
ADVECTING IN BUT MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THUS FAR. WITH
TIME THOUGH...SHOULD SEE THIS SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
AREA AS WELL AND WILL CONTINUE LOW END CHANCE POPS WITH LOW END
THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL.
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AND FEEL GUIDANCE IS
UNDERDOING POPS BASED ON GRIDDED FIELD ANALYSIS IN THE
GFS...NAM12...AND THE ECMWF. HAVE PUSHED POP CHANCES FURTHER NORTH
WHILE ALSO INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTH.
INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY BUILD DURING THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HAVE
LIMITED IT TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN LOCATIONS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIKELY POPS.
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH WARM FRONT
MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE TN/GA BORDER. INSTABILITY SHOULD RAMP
UP AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF
NORTH GEORGIA. GIVEN VICINITY OF THE LOW...SHOULDNT HAVE TO WORRY
ABOUT ANOTHER GULF CUTOFF SCENARIO AND SO WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE
ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST AREAS.
DEESE
&&
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS DIVERGE FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THE
SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WITH GFS FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN ECMWF. DURING
THIS TIME...AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT
LAKES AREA...AGAIN GFS IS FURTHER EAST AND STRONGER THAN
ECMWF...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BETTER POPS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LOW IS ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN FLOW BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN END OF SHORT WAVE ROTATES OVER THE
FORECAST ARE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ANY LOW END POPS WILL BE MAINLY OVER
NORTH GEORGIA. THE WORK WEEK IS PUNCTUATED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO SURPRISINGLY THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT
BY WEEKS END. WILL KEEP LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW.
ATWELL
&&
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO
BE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT
BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR ANYTHING LOWER THAN VFR CIGS LOOKS MINIMAL
FOR THIS CYCLE. WE WILL SEE -SHRA CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT WITH INCLUSION IN THE ATL AREA TAFS BEGINNING AT 15Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 21Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA TIMING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 49 69 51 64 / 10 30 60 50
ATLANTA 52 67 54 63 / 20 40 60 50
BLAIRSVILLE 41 65 47 57 / 0 20 40 50
CARTERSVILLE 46 66 51 61 / 20 30 50 50
COLUMBUS 55 70 58 68 / 50 60 60 60
GAINESVILLE 48 66 51 60 / 10 30 50 50
MACON 54 69 57 69 / 40 60 70 70
ROME 45 67 51 59 / 10 20 50 50
PEACHTREE CITY 49 67 52 64 / 30 40 60 50
VIDALIA 58 70 58 72 / 50 60 70 70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1256 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
1245 PM CDT
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TODAY WITH A SIMILAR COLD
POCKET ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON TO BE LESS THAN THAT SEEN ON THURSDAY. WE STILL
HAVE A SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ROTATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ACT AS A TRIGGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH A SEPERATE WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THAT MAY INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS
MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BORDER BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW
SNEAK IN. AFTER SUNSET ANY REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO THE
WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN WISCONSIN.
KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...
225 AM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WEEK THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
IMPACTING WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND THERE
REMAINS THE CHANCE...AT MOST...TO SEE A LITTLE LIGHT NON-
ACCUMULATING SNOW.
A VERY BROAD UPPER CIRCULATION SPANNING ABOUT 1200 MILES ACROSS IS
CENTERED OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT
SINKS SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE UNDER THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY. THE 00Z DVN RAOB AND WELL
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA HAD IMPRESSIVE-FOR-
MARCH -32C OR COLDER 500MB TEMPERATURES WHICH IMPLIES WE SHOULD BE
UNDER SIMILAR TODAY. HIGH BASED CUMULUS SHOULD POP UP AGAIN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS INDICATION OF A SMALL SHORT WAVE
PASSING AGAIN THIS EVENING. INDICIES THAT QUANTIFY LAPSE RATES AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS...SEEMED TO DO WELL FOR
YESTERDAYS SHOWERS. THESE FORECAST VALUES FROM THE NAM AND RAP ARE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL FAVORABLE FOR COLD POCKET ALOFT
SHOWER GROWTH. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING....MAINLY NORTH AND
CENTRAL...WHICH IS THE AREA CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE FAVORS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD END UP A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DIP A BIT AND ACTUALLY APPROACH 0C BY 00Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT
STILL BRING GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW...MORE OF AN ELONGATED EAST-TO-
WEST UPPER TROUGH...WILL INCH SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MODEL TIMING FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO MORE OF MIDDAY. THIS
WILL IMPACT WHAT HIGHS ARE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR LAKE
ADJACENT AREAS SINCE WINDS WILL TURN OFF THE WATER BEHIND THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY WITH AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THAT FRONT..BUT OF A SHALLOW ENOUGH DEPTH
WHERE WE ARE NOT MENTIONING ANY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
225 AM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD AGAIN. A SHORT WAVE/UPPER LOW THAT IS PART OF
OUR CURRENT TROUGH IS PREDICTED BY THE GFS AND EC TO DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN
WITH JET SUPPORT. IF THIS STRENGTHENING HAPPENS THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION UNDER AND AROUND THE
CENTER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA ARE MORE FAVORED TO
POSSIBLY SEE SOME OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION. PRESENTLY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE -5C TO -8C FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH IF LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE COOL ENOUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW/MIX.
AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME
GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED A LARGE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
EAST COAST WHICH COULD SLOW THE UPSTREAM PROGRESSION OF THE
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE LOOK TO BE UNDER RIDGING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE WARM ADVECTION BEGINS SOMETIME FROM MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT. CPC ACCORDINGLY HAS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST UNDER
HIGHER CHANCES TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 6-10
TIME FRAME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE TAF...WITH TIMING
OF THE SWITCH TO A NE WIND IN EXCESSS OF 10 KT THE OTHER CONCERN
FOR TOMORROW. THERE IS ALSO A LOW SHOWER CHANCE BRIEFLY LATER
TODAY.
THE GUSTY WIND FIELD TODAY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS
THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST WEAKENS AND PULLS FARTHER TO THE EAST.
GUSTS WILL PEAK IN THE 35 KT RANGE AS DEEPER MIXING ENSUES THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS FIELD TO FILL IN AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES...ONE NORTH OF THE
WISCONSIN BORDER...AND ONE JUST WEST OF THE AREA...LOOK TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOOON. INSTABILITY IS WEAKER THAN
YESTERDAY THUS MINIMAL THUNDER CONCERN. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES...AND COVERAGE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION
IN THE TAF. EXPECT THE CUMULUS FIELD TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT BECAUSE IT IS A WEAKER
FRONT ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS SHOULD BE HALTED AS IT APPROACHES
TOMORROW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE WHERE THE FRONT WILL
COME IN UNIMPEDED. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NW LATE
TONIGHT...NORTH AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN NE BY MID MORNING. EXPECT
WINDS ABOVE 10 KT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TIMING IS MEDIUM AT THIS
POINT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LOWER VFR/MVFR CLOUDS WITH THE
FRONT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC HEIGHTS. NE WINDS/CLOUDS THEN
PROGRESS INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CDT
HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS MORNING. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR A
BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND THEN
SHIFT EAST. A COLD FRONT SHIFTS DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE LAKE MONDAY. THE
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD COMES TO AN END AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE LAKE MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AS GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE FIRST LOW. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHEAST AROUND 15-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW TUESDAY AND THEN
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS BEYOND TUESDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1250 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR DISSIPATED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
A WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE AVERAGED 8 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
WEAK ELEVATED CAPE...AM EXPECTING MORE INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HAVE PULLED THE 20 TO 30 POPS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST...BUT LATEST HRRR RUNS
INDICATE THERE MAY BE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT WITH THE LOW COVERAGE
EXPECTED...DECIDED TO LEAVE THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH TO
POSSIBLY 40 MPH OR HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH MIGHT BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT A WIND ADVISORY
IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
THE HIGHEST THREAT OF UNCONTROLLED GRASS FIRES WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...RH WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. THE
THREAT ASSUMES THAT TALL GRASSES AND BRUSH HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY
FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL.
FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING NORTH.
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CHANNELED VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN TYPICAL CHANGEABLE MARCH WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS DEPICT A COLD CORE CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE PLENTY OF
STRATUS ALONG WITH SOME OFF AND ON MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. THE
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON SO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WOULD
OCCUR THEN. REGARDLESS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WITH THE
PRECIPITATION RATE BEING LIGHT WE DON`T SEE ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
OTHER THAN A POSSIBLE DUSTING ON THE GRASS MAINLY AT NIGHT. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THIS CLOSED LOW THEN PHASES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...FORMING AN INTENSE NOR`EASTER
RIDING UP THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW GOING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANGEABLE MARCH WEATHER AS A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES SETS UP A ZONAL THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLDER
AIRMASS WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL FORM A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DECENT RAIN OR SNOW EVENT SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE DVN CWA.
HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT WITH REGARD TO THE
TIMING/STRENGTH AND QPF AMOUNTS OF THE SYSTEM ABOUT MID WEEK.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
EXPECT MAINLY VFR LEVEL CELLULAR CU TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON TO SCTRD AND BKN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY AFTER 2-3 PM CDT.
ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLY WILL POP UP
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CU FIELDS WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NEARED/REACHED...BUT SEVERAL OF THE LATEST HIRES MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LESS ACTIVITY/COVERAGE THEN WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON MAYBE PICKING UP ON A SUBSIDENCE STREAK IN
BETWEEN VORTS EMBEDDED IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WILL KEEP
VCSH OUT OF THE TAFS AGAIN FOR ONE MORE TAF CYCLE AND WATCH
DEVELOPMENT TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. WET WINDS OF 10-20 KTS AND
HIGHER GUSTS WILL LOOK TO BECOME LIGHTER NORTHWEST TONIGHT OF 4-8
KTS UNDER CLEARING SKIES. ..12..
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN
ILLINOIS NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA. THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND ON AN ISOLATED BASIS NEAR 3
INCHES...WERE FOCUSED IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS WERE NEAR SATURATION. AS A RESULT....
RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SLOW BUT STEADY
RISES ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT RIVER FLOODING ON THE MISSISSIPPI IS NOT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN
OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...CHANGES IN RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12
HYDROLOGY...UTTECH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
214 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON RAP UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA.
THE FIRST IS NEAR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
WITH SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. SEVERAL
WEAK BANDS OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF OUR CWA.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
AT LEAST A LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS COMBINING WITH EAST-NORTHEAST MOIST FLOW NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. POPS/TIMING WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
NOW MENTIONED ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS
STILL INDICATION FROM SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE OF A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CSI WITH NEAR NEUTRAL
THETA E LAPSE RATES WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL MORE
FOCUSED/INTENSE SNOW BANDS TO FORM. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING (OR WHERE) AND I LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE IDEA OF LESS
INSTABILITY/BROADER LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE.
TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS PRECIP WINDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES EASTWARD AND FRONTOGENESIS TRANSITIONS OUT OF OUR CWA.
REGARDING PRECIP TYPE...MOISTURE PROFILES STILL APPEAR TO BE
PROBLEMATIC IN OUR EASTERN CWA...WITH WET BULB SURFACE TEMPS IN THE
33-35F RANGE. THIS COULD MEAN THAT LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST (WHERE THE
STRONGER QPF SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE IS) WOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OR JUST RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON PRECIP OCCURRENCE WITH HIGHS LINGERING NEAR WET BULB
TEMPS UNLESS PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR CLEARING WOULD BE IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS THAT
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MAINLY
SNOW. THE OTHER COMPLICATION WILL BE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
WHICH COULD EAT INTO ANY POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS (BARRING HEAVIER
SNOW RATES). IN ANY CASE IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF OUR CWA SHOULD SEE
1-2" OF SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN NW
KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO...AND LESS IN SW NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TRI STATE
REGION WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST...COINCIDING WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN ROCKIES...THAT WILL SHIFT SURFACE FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO
MORE SOUTHERLY BY 06Z SATURDAY...THUS ENDING UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM 06Z SATURDAY ONWARD WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FOR NEXT MONDAY ON THRU TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH BUILDING H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS IS GOING TO
CREATE DOWNSLOPE MIDLEVEL FLOW THAT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. H5 RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST FAIRLY PROGRESSIVELY BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE PLAINS REGION SEEING A SHORTWAVE AFFECT
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...MOVING ESE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS SHIFTING UPPER
LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THE RESULT WILL BE LESS QPF FOR THE
CWA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
FOR TEMPS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BEHIND
DISSIPATING SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THRU THE DAY. NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS...WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS...ONLY TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BACK TO THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER.
FOR PRECIPITATION...LINGERING -SW ON FRIDAY NIGHT COULD GIVE EASTERN
COLORADO VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUM LESS THAN AN INCH. SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MIDWEEK WILL BRING A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ONLY UP TO A
POTENTIAL 0.10" QPF...INCLUDING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW.
FOR WINDS/RH...POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO INCREASE NEAR
20MPH SATURDAY BUT SHOULD TIL SUNDAY. MONDAY/TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS REACHING 10-20 MPH W/ SOME LOCALES REACHING HIGHER FOR BRIEF
PERIODS...ALONG WITH LOW RH READINGS MONDAY/TUESDAY NEAR 15-20
PERCENT...COULD CREATE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY COULD HAVE AREA SEEING GUSTS NEAR 30+
MPH WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS IMPACT OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW TO BOTH TERMINALS. CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS
IFR CONDITIONS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW WHICH SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. LIFR CONDITIONS (CIGS 300-400 KFT) ARE POSSIBLE AT KGLD
WHERE A MORE INTENSE/MODERATE BAND OF SNOW COULD SET UP AND LINGER
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. I TRENDED TAFS IN THIS
DIRECTION. THERE IS ALSO STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NW WINDS AT KGLD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON RAP UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA. THE
FIRST IS NEAR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS
IN PLACE NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH SURFACE TROUGH
CENTERED NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. SEVERAL WEAK BANDS OF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF OUR CWA.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
AT LEAST A LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS COMBINING WITH EAST-NORTHEAST MOIST FLOW NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. POPS/TIMING WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
NOW MENTIONED ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS
STILL INDICATION FROM SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE OF A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CSI WITH NEAR NEUTRAL
THETA E LAPSE RATES WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL MORE
FOCUSED/INTENSE SNOW BANDS TO FORM. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING (OR WHERE) AND I LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE IDEA OF LESS
INSTABILITY/BROADER LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE.
TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS PRECIP WINDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES EASTWARD AND FRONTOGENESIS TRANSITIONS OUT OF OUR CWA.
REGARDING PRECIP TYPE...MOISTURE PROFILES STILL APPEAR TO BE
PROBLEMATIC IN OUR EASTERN CWA...WITH WET BULB SURFACE TEMPS IN THE
33-35F RANGE. THIS COULD MEAN THAT LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST (WHERE THE
STRONGER QPF SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE IS) WOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OR JUST RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
DEPENDED ON PRECIP OCCURRENCE WITH HIGHS LINGERING NEAR WET BULB
TEMPS UNLESS PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR CLEARING WOULD BE IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS THAT
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MAINLY
SNOW AS LONG AS IT IS PRECIPITATING. THE OTHER COMPLICATION WILL BE
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD EAT INTO ANY POTENTIAL SNOW
TOTALS (BARRING HEAVIER SNOW RATES). IN ANY CASE IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH
OF OUR CWA SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN NW KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO...AND LESS IN SW NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TRI STATE
REGION WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST...COINCIDING WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN ROCKIES...THAT WILL SHIFT SURFACE FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO
MORE SOUTHERLY BY 06Z SATURDAY...THUS ENDING UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM 06Z SATURDAY ONWARD WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FOR NEXT MONDAY ON THRU TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH BUILDING H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS IS GOING TO
CREATE DOWNSLOPE MIDLEVEL FLOW THAT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. H5 RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST FAIRLY PROGRESSIVELY BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE PLAINS REGION SEEING A SHORTWAVE AFFECT
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...MOVING ESE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS SHIFTING UPPER
LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THE RESULT WILL BE LESS QPF FOR THE
CWA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
FOR TEMPS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BEHIND
DISSIPATING SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THRU THE DAY. NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS...WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS...ONLY TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BACK TO THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER.
FOR PRECIPITATION...LINGERING -SW ON FRIDAY NIGHT COULD GIVE EASTERN
COLORADO VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUM LESS THAN AN INCH. SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MIDWEEK WILL BRING A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ONLY UP TO A
POTENTIAL 0.10" QPF...INCLUDING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW.
FOR WINDS/RH...POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO INCREASE NEAR
20MPH SATURDAY BUT SHOULD TIL SUNDAY. MONDAY/TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS REACHING 10-20 MPH W/ SOME LOCALES REACHING HIGHER FOR BRIEF
PERIODS...ALONG WITH LOW RH READINGS MONDAY/TUESDAY NEAR 15-20
PERCENT...COULD CREATE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY COULD HAVE AREA SEEING GUSTS NEAR 30+
MPH WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2016
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS IMPACT OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW TO BOTH TERMINALS. CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS
IFR CONDITIONS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW WHICH SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. LIFR CONDITIONS (CIGS 300-400 KFT) ARE POSSIBLE AT KGLD
WHERE A MORE INTENSE/MODERATE BAND OF SNOW COULD SET UP AND LINGER
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. I TRENDED TAFS IN THIS
DIRECTION. THERE IS ALSO STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NW WINDS AT KGLD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
ONLY MINOR POP CHANGES FOR THIS AFTN AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO
FALL OVER THE SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WEBCAMS THOUGH INDICATE
SNOW IS LIGHT AND THIS NEW SNOW IS MELTING AS TEMPS ARE AROUND
32F.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT MOVING AROUND THE BACK OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PUSHED THE LIGHT SNOW
BAND FURTHER WEST TO THE LANGDON TO GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS
AREA. OBS SHOW THAT SNOW HAS ENDED IN THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREA SO
WILL LET HEADLINES GO. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SNOW
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REASONABLE
GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE VORT MAX. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
HAVE SOME VERY NARROW BANDS OF HIGHER QPF. THE EPV AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE
SNOW...BUT THE RAP AT LEAST SHOWS SOME SMALL AREAS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS POPPING UP AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH
CHANCE POPS GOING...AND BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT INTO THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE IN SOME SPOTS. PROBABLY DO NOT HAVE THE EXACT
LOCATIONS RIGHT IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL TALK ABOUT ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE OTHER PRODUCTS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE UPPER LOWS
WOBBLING ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH
CONTINUING. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT TIMING WITH VORTS
MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SO JUST HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THINK THAT AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. LOWERED TONIGHTS LOWS INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW...WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD BUT THE UPPER LOWS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LEAVE OUR
REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA WHILE THE LONG TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA.
LONG RIDGE IN THE WEST WEAKENS WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
RETROGRADES A BIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.
THE GFS WAS THE FASTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ON
TUE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN AND TUE. A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER
TEMPS FOR MON AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS KFAR/KDVL WHILE IT ENDS
AT KGFK. LOOKING FOR MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE FOR FIRST 12 HOURS OF
PERIOD WITH SOME OVERNIGHT IFR RETURNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENT NNW TO NNE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AT ALL SITES
BY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
232 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...RESULTING OF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT THURSDAY...
EXPECTING FAIR WEATHER FOR ST. PATRICKS DAY WITH CONDITIONS QUITE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS RNK 12Z SOUNDING IS QUITE DRY AND
SATELLITE INDICATES JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD BE THOROUGHLY MIXED THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP BRING
SOME GUSTY WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MAIN CONCERN ARE POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH VALUES...
GUSTY WINDS...AND LOWERING FUEL MOISTURE. DO NOT EXPECT TO MEET
RED FLAG CRITERIA SO THE GOING SPSS HIGHLIGHTING THE INCREASED
FIRE DANGER LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE SITUATION.
PREVIOUS AFD...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD AREA OF
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE RNK CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
FALL TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW SAGS SOUTHWARD...FALLING FROM VERY
WARM +16C LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY TO AROUND +5C BY THIS EVENING.
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY SFC WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS COMBINED WITH
NEAR FULL INSOLATION...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AGAIN TODAY.
MOS GUIDANCE VARIED HIGHLY FROM VERY WARM MAV MOS TO RATHER COOL
ECMWF MOS. HAVE LEANED FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY TOWARD THE MAV
MOS. CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A PART IN THIS...BUT OVERALL THINKING
IS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AFTER THE MORNING DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND THE NEXT ONES APPROACHING BOTH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST...WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET.
850MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE 0C EVEN INTO FRI...SO LOW TEMPS FRI
MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...APPROACHING BOTH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...HENCE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAMS...WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP IN MOST AREAS INTO FRI
MORNING AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS A FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WITH ONE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SFC A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF
US. THE MODELS ARE GOING WITH A WEAKER WIND PATTERN FRIDAY BUT STILL
SOMEWHAT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY NORTH ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE. KEEPING HUMIDITY LOW DESPITE SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPS AS THEY MAX OUT FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO 60S.
EAST.
THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AT TIMES ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS FLOW DICTATES DRY
WESTERLIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TO OFF THE SC
COAST. STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF HOW FAST AND DEEP
THE SFC AND UPPER LOW ARE THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AS USUAL IS
HANDLING THIS BETTER IN TERMS OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WHERE THE
00Z NAM IS SIMILAR. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT FOLLOWED THESE
SOLUTIONS CLOSELY. BY DAWN SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE EAST TN/WRN NC MTNS...AND WORKING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TEMP FORECAST SUGGEST SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AT THE ONSET AND POSSIBLY STAYING SNOW AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV SATURDAY. STILL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY...PLUS QPF WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH AND WITH WARM GROUND MAYBE A DUSTING TO HALF INCH ON GRASSY
SFCS...IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST DEEPENS SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A SW FLOW SURGING BACK INTO THE AREA.
SFC FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SFC LOW STRENGTHENING OFF THE NC COAST.
FORECAST SOLUTION SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MTN RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL OVERALL QPF
SUGGESTS LESS THAN ADVISORY AMOUNTS AND WILL KEEP PROBABILITY LOW IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PLACES LIKE THE HOT
SPRINGS/ALLEGHANY MTN RIDGE IN BATH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN GREENBRIER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS MOUNTAIN
LAKE.
LOOK FOR LOWS SAT NIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
TO LOWER TO MID 40S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHOW A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST SOME HIGH BASED CU TO THE NORTH WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE DRY SO NO CIG/VSBY RESTRICTION ISSUES WILL IMPACT AVIATION
CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING
DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. FRIDAY DOES NOT
LOOK AS GUSTY AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED SO ONLY LOW END
GUSTS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE
DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LEADS TO SOUTHERN STREAM COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN LOW CIGS AND RAIN
WITH POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS QUITE LOW EVEN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GOOD 30 DEGREE SPREADS EVEN AT THIS HOUR AT MANY
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF DECOUPLED VALLEYS. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
FAIRLY TIGHT AND RESULT IN GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRRR WIND GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED 20-22KT
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT FUEL MOISTURES FROM THE VARIOUS RAWS SITES...REVEALS
6-8 PERCENT VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...WHERE
THE WINDS ARE HIGHER...UPWARDS OF 9-10 PERCENT ACROSS THE NC
COUNTIES...WHERE MORE RAIN FELL A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. FINALLY RH
VALUES...ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY...AS HAS EVEN BEEN THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THE GFS INITIALIZED WAY TOO MOIST...SO I...AS
WELL AS SPC...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/LOWER NAM
DEWPOINTS. AS A RESULT OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS...SPC HAS OUTLOOKED
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
AN SPS FOR FIRE DANGER WAS ALREADY ISSUED ON THE DAY SHIFT WED IN
COORDINATION WITH THE NORTH CAROLINA FORESTRY SERVICE. GIVEN THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS...ONE WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE WV COUNTIES. AM GOING TO
COORDINATE WITH THE USFS BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL DECISION ON THIS.
WITH NO WETTING OF FUELS AND STILL A CONSIDERATION OF LOW
DEWPOINTS FRIDAY...FIRE WEATHER COULD AGAIN BE A CONCERN.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...AND
WINDS LIGHTER...SO NOT AS DEFINITE AS TODAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS/WP
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...MBS/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...RAB