Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/16/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1102 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG
THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:32 AM PDT MONDAY...FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
PERSIST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON REGION-WIDE. IN ADDITION, SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
GENERALLY INTO THE 60S (UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST). THE ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWS
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE...AS THE FINAL IN A SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS EXITS TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A HALF INCH IN
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN THE SANTA
LUCIA RANGE OF MONTEREY COUNTY. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MID
MORNING.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
UNTIL MID MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AS A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TO FORM TONIGHT. WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ALSO DEVELOPING LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S FORECAST BY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
A FEW LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. DRY AND
BALMY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WEST COAST. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS DON`T AGREE PARTICULARLY
WELL ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL DURING THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MOST RAINFALL WILL MOVE
INLAND TO OUR NORTH AND THAT ONLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF GETTING WET.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:58 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR TODAY WITH A HIGH
CLOUD DECK THAT WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AND DESCEND FROM 20K FT
DOWN TO 8K THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS ALSO SPAWNING FEW TO SCT CLOUDS A VARYING LEVELS
FROM 2-5K FT AGL. ADDITIONAL WEAK CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE FEW TO REBOUND TO SCT OR EVEN
BKN. CURRENTLY NOT ADDING ANY OVERNIGHT FOG TO TAF PACKAGE AS DEW
POINT DEPRESSION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP IT
AT BAY. THAT SAID... LOCALIZED POCKETS OF DENSE PATCHY FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED AREAS WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS... COOLER
TEMPERATURES... AND LIGHTER WINDS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH POSBL MVFR DEVELOPING AS
CUMULUS DEVELOPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCT CLOUD BASES COULD TURN TO
BKN AS DIURNAL HEATING/CONVECTION PICKS UP. WINDS GENERALLY OUT
OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPORADIC GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT POSBL.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW. A FEW GUSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TO 15KT. AFTERNOON HEATING
MAY LEAD TO THICKENING CLOUDS AOA 2500-3500 FT RESULTING IN BRIEF
MVFR CIGS.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:51 AM PDT MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY AND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. SQUARED SEAS WILL BE A THREAT IN ADDITION THE THE WINDS.
MODERATE SEAS WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...HOWEVER SEAS WILL DECREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
837 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG
THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:32 AM PDT MONDAY...FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
PERSIST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON REGION-WIDE. IN ADDITION, SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
GENERALLY INTO THE 60S (UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST). THE ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWS
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE...AS THE FINAL IN A SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS EXITS TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A HALF INCH IN
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN THE SANTA
LUCIA RANGE OF MONTEREY COUNTY. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MID
MORNING.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
UNTIL MID MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AS A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TO FORM TONIGHT. WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ALSO DEVELOPING LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S FORECAST BY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
A FEW LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. DRY AND
BALMY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WEST COAST. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS DON`T AGREE PARTICULARLY
WELL ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL DURING THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MOST RAINFALL WILL MOVE
INLAND TO OUR NORTH AND THAT ONLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF GETTING WET.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 AM PDT MONDAY...THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGE IS SHOWING A MIX OF MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER
THE AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING THIS MORNING TO PREVENT ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
FROM FORMING. EXPECTING MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH CUMULUS
CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
SCT-BKN035 DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING WITH HEATING OF THE DAY
PRODUCING CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REACH 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS TO START THE DAY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO SCT-
BKN025 LATER THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8
TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 2:51 AM PDT MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AS COOL AIR FILLS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. AS THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
EXPECT MODERATE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT SUR.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
MODERATE SEAS WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES OCCURRING AT NEAR SHORE
REEFS AND SAND BARS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER SEAS WILL
DECREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
832 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL
KEEP STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...A DEEP MARINE LAYER...AND SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
DRY AND WARMER DAYS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INLAND. LATE IN THE WEEK...ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING SOME COOLING...HIGHER HUMIDITY...AND A RETURN OF MARINE
CLOUDS TO COASTAL AREAS.
.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AT 8 AM PDT...RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING SE WEST
OF THE MTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY UNDER ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH...EXCEPT IN SPOTS ON AND NEAR THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO MTS WHERE AMOUNTS TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. NO MIRAMAR SOUNDING WAS AVAILABLE AT 12Z. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WERE RUNNING 5-7 MBS ONSHORE FROM KSAN TO THE DESERTS.
STRONGEST WINDS WERE RUNNING 25 WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH IN THE
ONSHORE WIND-PRONE AREAS OF THE MTS.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERT AREAS
THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT IT WILL BE DISCONTINUED OVER THE MTS ON
SCHEDULE AT 10 AM PDT. MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING WEST OF THE MTS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN
THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE DESERTS.
BASED ON AVAILABLE MOS GUIDANCE AND HI RES MODELS...MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN EDDY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP. MUCH OF THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AS THE SYNOPTIC
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE OFFSHORE. SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP BELOW THE CAJON AND MORONGO PASS AREAS TUE/WED
MORNINGS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MODELS SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORMING ALONG AND JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST WED/THU. A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS UP AT
AROUND 30N JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SEEMS TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A COASTAL EDDY ON THE LOCAL WRFEMS AND THE 12Z NAM 12 RUN. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS/FOG AND COOLING ALONG THE COAST AS EARLY AS
THU...BUT INLAND...THE DAYS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
141530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...A MIX OF CLOUD BASSES BETWEEN 800 AND 3500
FT MSL WILL OCCUR THROUGH 19Z...WITH AREAS OF VIS TO 1 SM IN -SHRA.
ANY PERIODS IFR CONDITIONS AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES SHOULD BE BRIEF.
LOW CLOUD TOPS BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FT MSL THROUGH 19Z. -SHRA
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 19Z...WITH FEW-BKN CLOUD BETWEEN 2000 AND
3500 FT MSL THEREAFTER THROUGH 00Z. BKN CIGS WILL LOWER TO 700-2000
FT MSL AFTER 04Z AND BE FOCUSED WITHIN 25 SM OF THE COAST. A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AT KCRQ AFTER 04Z TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN THE CIGS AFTER 04Z IS LOW TO MODERATE.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...BKN-OVC...VIS OF 1 SM OR LESS AND -SHRA WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES THROUGH 21Z...WITH SKC-SCT
DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z. ELSEWHERE FEW-SCT AOA FL200 WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONGOING AREAS OF WESTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT
WITH GUSTS 40 KT WILL PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE UDDFS AND LLWS OVER
AND EAST OF THE MTNS THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
830 AM...BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 18 KT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
PREDOMINANTLY WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS AND SWELL LESS THAN 5 FT
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR
BANNING.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...ALBRIGHT
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
811 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Winds remain rather robust across the region this morning. Mammoth
Airport gusting to 62 mph, nearly the same at Five Mile Flat in
Storey County, and earlier we had 120 mph along the Sierra Crest
near Tahoe. Latest HRRR guidance has winds peaking over next few
hours then gradually subsiding by late afternoon as flow aloft
turns NW, lessens, and pressure gradient relaxes.
I`ll extend the wind advisories for Lovelock/Fallon/Mono Co areas
until 2 PM. Will also post a Lake Wind Advisory for Tahoe until 8
PM due to ongoing strong winds (40-45 mph on buoys) with rough
waters likely through the day today. Winds along the Sierra Front
will see gusts 40-55 mph, mainly in the wind prone areas and
foothills, so not widespread enough to warrant an advisory. -Chris
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 333 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow showers will diminish this morning as the winter storm
departs the region. Gusty winds continue today but will diminish by
late afternoon and evening. Quieter weather will return this week as
high pressure builds across the West and provides drier and warmer
conditions to the region.
SHORT TERM...
The last push of moisture is currently working its way across the
Sierra Interstate 80 corridor with lighter snowfall to south over
Mono County. Snow levels remained high overnight which produced a
rain/snow mix near the Lake Tahoe elevation and limited snow
accumulation. Currently snow levels remain around 6500-7000 feet
through the Tahoe Basin and 5500-6000 feet farther north through
Lassen County. Still looking for a few additional inches of
accumulation mainly above 7000 feet through the morning, but the
bulk of the precipitation has already fallen and have cancelled
the Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories. Snow
levels will slowly fall through the morning which should return a
rain/snow mix at lake level.
Some lingering showers will prevail through the afternoon but
precipitation amounts will be light with little additional impacts
expected through the afternoon. Winds will remain breezy today as a
west gradient develops behind the storm today. Wind Advisories will
remain in place over Mono and Mineral Counties and also the western
Nevada Basin and Range this morning with diminishing winds by this
evening. Choppy and hazardous boating conditions are expected for
Pyramid Lake and have posted a Lake Wind Advisory through the
afternoon.
After this system passes, we will return to a quieter and drier
weather pattern as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the
eastern Pacific and west coast. High temperatures will warm a few
degrees above seasonal averages with upper 50s to low 60s possible
across western Nevada by mid-week. Overnight temperatures will be
chilly with freezing temperatures possible Tuesday and again
Wednesday morning. Lows in the 20s can be expected for Sierra
valleys through mid-week. Fuentes
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...
High pressure continues to develop Thursday with the ridge axis west
of the Sierra. Model simulations show the ridge axis shifting
eastward to over the Sierra by Friday or Saturday. This pattern will
likely provide dry conditions, near average temperatures and
generally light NE-E winds for western NV and the eastern Sierra
through Friday and possibly through Saturday as well. However,
forecast confidence is lower starting Saturday regarding the
evolution of the ridge. It`s possible the ridge will weaken and
shift eastward Saturday or Sunday, which could lead to increasing
moisture streaming off the Pacific along with some potential for
valley rain and mountain snow showers for the second half of the
weekend. JCM
AVIATION...
Strong wind gusts 60-80 kts will continue across Sierra ridges
through this morning before slowly diminishing this afternoon.
These conditions will create moderate to severe turbulence in the
lee of the Sierra today. Terminals in the eastern Sierra and
western NV should expect wind gusts 25-40 kts today with a
decreasing trend during the afternoon. There is a chance for
occasional stronger gusts 45-55 kts in Mono/Mineral counties
including KMMH mainly through the morning hours.
Precipitation has tapered off to showers but mountain obscuration
along with brief MVFR or possibly IFR conditions remain possible at
Sierra terminals through this morning. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail across the area by afternoon. JCM
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
evening for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon NVZ001-004.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
NVZ002.
CA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon CAZ073.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
CAZ072.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
436 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG
THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...AS THE FINAL IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS EXITS TO
THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT HAVE MOSTLY BEEN LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE OF
MONTEREY COUNTY. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN
PATCHY FOG WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
UNTIL MID MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AS A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TO FORM TONIGHT. WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ALSO DEVELOPING LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S FORECAST BY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
A FEW LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. DRY AND
BALMY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WEST COAST. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS DON`T AGREE PARTICULARLY
WELL ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL DURING THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MOST RAINFALL WILL MOVE
INLAND TO OUR NORTH AND THAT ONLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF GETTING WET.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 AM PDT MONDAY...THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGE IS SHOWING A MIX OF MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER
THE AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING THIS MORNING TO PREVENT ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
FROM FORMING. EXPECTING MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH CUMULUS
CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
SCT-BKN035 DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING WITH HEATING OF THE DAY
PRODUCING CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REACH 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS TO START THE DAY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO SCT-
BKN025 LATER THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8
TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 2:51 AM PDT MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AS COOL AIR FILLS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. AS THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
EXPECT MODERATE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT SUR.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
MODERATE SEAS WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES OCCURRING AT NEAR SHORE
REEFS AND SAND BARS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER SEAS WILL
DECREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
316 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG
THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...AS THE FINAL IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS EXITS TO
THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT HAVE MOSTLY BEEN LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE OF
MONTEREY COUNTY. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN
PATCHY FOG WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
UNTIL MID MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AS A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TO FORM TONIGHT. WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ALSO DEVELOPING LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S FORECAST BY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
A FEW LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. DRY AND
BALMY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WEST COAST. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS DONT AGREE PARTICULARLY
WELL ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL DURING THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MOST RAINFALL WILL MOVE
INLAND TO OUR NORTH AND THAT ONLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF GETTING WET.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:54 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS GRADUALLY INCREASING. PATCHY FOG PERSISTS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...WINDS BECOMING W LATE THIS EVENING THEN W-NW
OVERNIGHT. MVFR. SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE CIGS AND VSBYS FORECAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR. SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING LATE
TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE CIGS AND VSBYS FORECAST MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 2:51 AM PDT MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AS COOL AIR FILLS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. AS THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
EXPECT MODERATE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT SUR.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
MODERATE SEAS WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES OCCURRING AT NEAR SHORE
REEFS AND SAND BARS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER SEAS WILL
DECREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
448 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...A MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS TN AND THE SE
STATES TODAY WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY NORTH OF THE
REGION THOUGH A FEW MINOR IMPULSES ALOFT MAY AID IN TRIGGERING A FEW
LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS E CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER WSW
FLOW IS FORECAST WITH CAPE VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS ON CORRIDOR FOR
BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH 12KM NAM AND SPC WRF FAVORING NRN
PORTIONS OF THE E CENTRAL FL AND HRRR AND 00Z GFS FAVORING THE SRN
HALF. WILL KEEP A LOW THUNDER CHANCE EVERYWHERE FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL DRYING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
ACROSS NRN SECTIONS AFTER 2 PM LIKELY LIMITING CONVECTION FROM
ORLANDO NORTHWARD PAST MID AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE LOW CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRENGTHEING
LOW LVL SW FLOW INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH 85-87 ACROSS MUCH OF E CENTRAL FL.
TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THIS
EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
TUE-WED...LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WILL EXPERIENCE GREATER EXTENT OF THE
ADVERTISED DEEP LAYER DRYING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEAWARD OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER FLOW FLATTENS SIGNALING A TEMPORARY
QUIET PERIOD. A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOCATE OVER S FL TO
KEEP WINDS WITH A W COMPONENT. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE INTO THE M/U80S. LIGHTER WINDS WED SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ECSB TO FORM WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESS TO DIAL WARMTH
DOWN ALONG THE COAST. MIN TEMPS M50S-L60S. DRY WITH NO
MENTIONABLE POPS.
THU-SUN...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO OFFER A MULTI-DAY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. S FL SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO YIELD GROUND TO SAGGING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER N FL FOR THU. GATHERING MOISTURE OVER NC/NE
GULF OF MEXICO IN VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON FRI
WILL SPREAD E OVER PNSLA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS N OF I-4 THU INCREASING
AND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH FORECAST AREA FRI. A SHORTWAVE CARVES
INTO THE U.S. SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND INVIGORATING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SURFACE LOW OVER DIXIE AND DEEPENING AS IT TRANSITIONS TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC. LOOK FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN THE PNSLA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND TO OFFER EVENTUAL SETTLEMENT. CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES SAT
AND SUN WITH THUNDER. MAX TEMPS L/M80S THU AND FRI THEN U70S-L80S
SAT/SUN DUE TO THICKENING CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS IN 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW BKN MVFR STRATUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY VFR CIGS OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
THAT DEVELOP OVER E CENTRAL FL FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON
AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLC. SW WINDS 12-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY
15Z-22Z.
&&
.MARINE... SW WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-
4 FT BEYOND 20NM OFFSHORE. SOME INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WILL BRING
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE VOLUSIA COUNTY OFFSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE FROM THE MAINLAND INTO
THE ATLC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUE-WED...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS. LITTLE TO NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THU-FRI...A SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER N FL WILL INTRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL ON THU AND THEN SHOWERS
MENTIONED FOR ALL ZONES FRI. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY
LEVELS...BUT WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THUNDER.
.FIRE WEATHER... BREEZY SW WINDS TODAY EXPECTED WITH MIN RHS AROUND
45 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TRANSPORT WINDS SW 20-25 KTS TODAY.
MIN RHS TO DROP TO NEAR 35 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS TUE AS SW WINDS
HELP MAINTAIN WARM CONDITIONS AND LOCAL ATMOSPHERE TEMPORARILY
DRIES OUT. RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER THE FORECAST BY LATE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
&&
.CLIMATE...WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. MAY COME CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS FOR 14-MAR-16. RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS:
DAB...89 IN 1985.
MCO...90 IN 1917.
MLB...89 IN 1954.
VRB...89 IN 1980.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 62 84 60 / 20 10 0 0
MCO 87 65 88 62 / 20 10 0 0
MLB 86 66 86 57 / 30 10 0 0
VRB 86 64 85 58 / 30 10 0 0
LEE 85 63 86 62 / 20 10 0 0
SFB 86 66 87 61 / 20 10 0 0
ORL 87 66 87 63 / 20 10 0 0
FPR 86 63 87 56 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MRV
LONG TERM....DWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
814 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE MAY
OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH WEDNESDAY. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
HIGHER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF RECENT TRENDS AND
WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR CAE
MARCH 16: 88F SET IN 1921
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AGS
MARCH 16: 88F SET IN 1921
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS INDICATED DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH THURSDAY.
FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE CONSISTENT SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THERE REMAINED LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BECAUSE OF MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. COMPARED TO THE GFS THE ECMWF HAS DISPLAYED
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATED A HIGH SPREAD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD POPS
20 TO 70 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING
THE HIGHER VALUES. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAYS FOLLOWING AN AVERAGE OF THE MOS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE MOS INDICATED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SMOKE...POSSIBLY FROM A PRESCRIBED BURN...MAY LINGER OVER CAE/CUB
THROUGH 01Z. SMOKE MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT TIMES HOWEVER
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. A 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
PRECLUDE A FOG THREAT EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. HRRR DATA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHERN GA INTO THE CSRA NEAR
DAYBREAK. THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AT
AGS/DNL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP SCATTER OUT
THE LOW STRATUS BY LATE MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016/
.UPDATE...
PULLED BACK POPS FARTHER NORTH INTO MIDDAY BASED ON TRENDS WITH
SHORTWAVE THOUGH OVERALL THOUGHT ON POSSIBLE THREATS HAS NOT
CHANGED AND SPC DID EXTEND THE MARGINAL RISK /5 PERCENT WIND...5
PERCENT HAIL/ INTO MUCH OF NORTH GA. MAIN COLD CORE AND TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL TO THE WEST THOUGH INITIAL FRONT WAVE OF DEVELOPMENT
HAS HAD A WANING TREND. RAP PROGGED MLCAPE STILL INDICATES NOSE OF
500 J/KG ADVECTING NE AHEAD OF WAVE SO EXPECTING SOME INITIATION
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH FAIRLY AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE IS PRECEDING
THE WAVE WHICH COULD FURTHER SUPPRESS DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION.
CANNOT RULE OUT FOCI FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL GA WHERE MORNING CLOUD DECK EDGES COULD ENHANCE SFC
BAROCLINITY...BUT WOULD BE LESS JUXTAPOSED WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SO
HAVE STILL KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND...AND THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA TOWARD NORTH
GEORGIA THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SHORT
WAVE DRIVING THESE STORMS AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...AND INSTABILITY
REMAINS MODEST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AREA OF BETTER MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE CAROLINAS AND LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR IS MODERATE AT BEST. A FEW STRONG STORMS WOULD NOT BE
IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...
BUT SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW. CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY
EXITS NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND MILD AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
20
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER THEY DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTION AFTER WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS BRINGS AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP IT MOSTLY DRY. THE FRONT STALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHCENTRAL GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST. HOWEVER ALL MODELS DIFFER
IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LOW END VFR CIGS WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND MOSTLY
VCSH ACROSS NORTHERN SITES...POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH KCSG THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST THUNDER CHANCES MAINLY JUST NORTH OF TAF SITES
THOUGH COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF ISOLATED -TSRA SO INCLUDED TEMPO
FOR KATL 20-22Z AND NEARBY SITES. OTHERWISE SOME POTENTIAL
CLEARING AFTER ABOUT 03-05Z THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SW WINDS.
GUIDANCE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN
SITES FOR EARLY MORNING WITH SOME REDUCED VSBYS...SO INCLUDED AT
LEAST SCT015 WITH 4SM BR FOR 09-14Z TUESDAY. SW WINDS BACK TO
7-10 KTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON INITIAL PRECIP/THUNDER POTENTIAL AND OVERNIGHT SOUTHERN
CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 78 54 83 58 / 40 30 0 0
ATLANTA 76 56 82 59 / 20 10 0 5
BLAIRSVILLE 70 50 78 52 / 60 30 0 5
CARTERSVILLE 75 52 83 55 / 50 10 0 10
COLUMBUS 81 56 84 57 / 10 5 0 5
GAINESVILLE 73 53 80 57 / 50 30 0 5
MACON 81 55 86 58 / 10 5 0 0
ROME 74 51 83 55 / 50 10 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 77 52 84 57 / 20 10 0 5
VIDALIA 84 60 85 60 / 10 5 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
PULLED BACK POPS FARTHER NORTH INTO MIDDAY BASED ON TRENDS WITH
SHORTWAVE THOUGH OVERALL THOUGHT ON POSSIBLE THREATS HAS NOT
CHANGED AND SPC DID EXTEND THE MARGINAL RISK /5 PERCENT WIND...5
PERCENT HAIL/ INTO MUCH OF NORTH GA. MAIN COLD CORE AND TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL TO THE WEST THOUGH INITIAL FRONT WAVE OF DEVELOPMENT
HAS HAD A WANING TREND. RAP PROGGED MLCAPE STILL INDICATES NOSE OF
500 J/KG ADVECTING NE AHEAD OF WAVE SO EXPECTING SOME INITIATION
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH FAIRLY AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE IS PRECEDING
THE WAVE WHICH COULD FURTHER SUPPRESS DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION.
CANNOT RULE OUT FOCI FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL GA WHERE MORNING CLOUD DECK EDGES COULD ENHANCE SFC
BAROCLINITY...BUT WOULD BE LESS JUXTAPOSED WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SO
HAVE STILL KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND...AND THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA TOWARD NORTH
GEORGIA THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SHORT
WAVE DRIVING THESE STORMS AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...AND INSTABILITY
REMAINS MODEST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AREA OF BETTER MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE CAROLINAS AND LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR IS MODERATE AT BEST. A FEW STRONG STORMS WOULD NOT BE
IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...
BUT SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW. CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY
EXITS NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND MILD AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
20
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER THEY DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTION AFTER WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS BRINGS AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP IT MOSTLY DRY. THE FRONT STALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHCENTRAL GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST. HOWEVER ALL MODELS DIFFER
IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN MOST AREAS BY 18Z. WINDS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
4KT OR LESS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7-10KT W/ GUSTS 15-20KT BY 14-16Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. BETTER CHANCES REMAIN NORTH OF
THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER THE ATLANTA METRO TAF SITES AND KAHN MAY SEE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AREA BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 78 54 83 58 / 40 30 0 0
ATLANTA 76 56 82 59 / 20 10 0 5
BLAIRSVILLE 70 50 78 52 / 60 30 0 5
CARTERSVILLE 75 52 83 55 / 50 10 0 10
COLUMBUS 81 56 84 57 / 10 5 0 5
GAINESVILLE 73 53 80 57 / 50 30 0 5
MACON 81 55 86 58 / 10 5 0 0
ROME 74 51 83 55 / 50 10 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 77 52 84 57 / 20 10 0 5
VIDALIA 84 60 85 60 / 10 5 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
219 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
PRESSURE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH MIDLANDS IN
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD AIRMASS
THAT IS STILL SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. HIGH RESOLUTION RAP MODEL KEEPS
SOME CONVECTION CROSSING THE NORTH MIDLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. HRRR MODEL ENDS ALL CONVECTION BY 06Z. SATELLITE
INDICATED CLOUD TOPS COOING SINCE 03Z. GIVEN THESE TRENDS WILL
KEEP CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS THROUGH 06Z.
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 APPEAR ON TRACK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DAMPENING H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS STILL DEPICT VERY COLD H5 TEMPERATURES
OF -17 TO -18 C. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF DRYING BEHIND THE LEAD MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE NAM AND
GFS MOS HAVE POPS 40 TO 50 PERCENT NORTH TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
SOUTH. THE NAM SHOWS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -7 TO -10 WITH THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE NORTH PART WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND.
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER DRYING. THE MODELS DISPLAY FLAT
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WE USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A COLD FRONT WILL LITTLE MOISTURE
APPROACHING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE MAY OCCUR BY SATURDAY WITH BACKING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND 30 TO 70 PERCENT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF POPS WERE HIGHEST CENTERED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT LOWER TO ABOUT NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE RAIN AS INDICATED BY THE
MOS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE MORNING.
SOME EVENING CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS SO NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND EXPAND THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS FROM 07Z-13Z
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 15Z BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 16Z AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY WILL
COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION WITH SOME STORMS BEING STRONG BUT MOST OF THE THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AND NOT
INCLUDING IN THIS FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1215 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
PRESSURE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH MIDLANDS IN
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD AIRMASS
THAT IS STILL SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. HIGH RESOLUTION RAP MODEL KEEPS
SOME CONVECTION CROSSING THE NORTH MIDLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. HRRR MODEL ENDS ALL CONVECTION BY 06Z. SATELLITE
INDICATED CLOUD TOPS COOING SINCE 03Z. GIVEN THESE TRENDS WILL
KEEP CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS THROUGH 06Z.
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 APPEAR ON TRACK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DAMPENING H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS STILL DEPICT VERY COLD H5 TEMPERATURES
OF -17 TO -18 C. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF DRYING BEHIND THE LEAD MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE NAM AND
GFS MOS HAVE POPS 40 TO 50 PERCENT NORTH TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
SOUTH. THE NAM SHOWS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -7 TO -10 WITH THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE NORTH PART WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND.
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER DRYING. THE MODELS DISPLAY FLAT
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WE USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A COLD FRONT WILL LITTLE MOISTURE
APPROACHING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE MAY OCCUR BY SATURDAY WITH BACKING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND 30 TO 70 PERCENT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF POPS WERE HIGHEST CENTERED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT LOWER TO ABOUT NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE RAIN AS INDICATED BY THE
MOS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATER TODAY
IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
CONCERN FOCUSES ON EARLY MORNING FOG...AND WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ON THE GROUND EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. EXPECT
MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH FOG MIXING OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z BUT DUE TO AREAL AND TIMING ISSUES...WILL NOT
MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO EARLY MORNING FOG
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
820 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Deepening surface low now over west central Illinois this evening
with the warm front extending east southeast from the low over
central to southeast Illinois. Dew points have risen to around
60 degrees across our area this evening ahead of the strong low.
Strongest storms will continue to edge east northeast ahead of
the surface low for the rest of the evening. Tornado watch number
44 has been extended to 10 pm CDT and we may need to add some
counties further east over the next few hours as well. Updated
zone forecast with the new watch extension time will be out
in the next 10-15 minutes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 997mb low over northeast Missouri,
with a warm front extending E/SE across south-central Illinois.
Despite the presence of this forcing, convection has not yet
materialized across Missouri or Illinois as the atmosphere remains
capped. The short-wave trough that will eventually approach from
the west and break the cap is still well to the west across western
Kansas/Nebraska, so think cap will hold firm through the remainder
of the afternoon. HRRR has been consistently showing scattered
thunderstorms developing along the trailing cold front across
eastern Missouri after 21z/4pm...with the activity then tracking
E/NE into central Illinois this evening. 4km WRF-NMM has similar
timing, and both high-res models suggest the storms will quickly
shift out of the KILX CWA by midnight. Given strong directional low-
level wind shear in the vicinity of the warm front, the main mode of
any convection that develops later today will be supercellular. As
such, damaging wind gusts and large hail remain the primary
threats...although a few tornadoes will also be possible mainly
along and northwest of the I-55 corridor. Have therefore included
likely PoPs and mentioned severe weather across the western half of
the CWA this evening accordingly. Any convection that fires will
rapidly push eastward out of the area by midnight, with only a few
lingering rain showers across the NW from the Peoria area northward
after midnight. Once the storms pass, strong/gusty southwesterly
winds will develop, with forecast soundings and numeric guidance
suggesting gusts of 30-35 mph. Overnight lows will drop into the
middle to upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Deepening surface low pressure forecast to push into central
Wisconsin by 12z Wednesday with a tight pressure gradient over most
of the forecast area during the day. Forecast soundings showing 40-
45 kts just off the surface tomorrow mid morning through the
afternoon hours so wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph look likely over
most of the area, except south of the Interstate 70 corridor. As
a result, a wind advisory will be issued for a good portion of
the forecast area for tomorrow. Areas north of I-74 will get close
to some warning criteria winds, especially if the wrap around
moisture/clouds stay to our north like most of the models suggest.
Despite the passage of the cold front this evening, temperatures
will be mild again on Wednesday, although not as warm as today.
Look for highs to climb into the 60s most areas.
The strong surface low will begin to fill across the lower Great
Lakes on Thursday as upper level energy is transferred over to the
East Coast. This will result in an elongated surface trof from the
new low off New England west through the southern Great Lakes.
This feature will gradually slide south bringing a more extensive
cloud band south with it and the threat for some light precip
starting on Friday night and continuing on and off into Saturday
night. We may see a mix of rain and snow across our north Friday
night into early Saturday morning, and possibly again late
Saturday night into Sunday. No accumulations are expected with any
snow that does occur across our north.
The upper trof will gradually work its way southeast across the
Great Lakes on Sunday and Monday with rather cool temperatures
prevailing, at least compared to what we have had over the past
couple of days. However, with the trof being more progressive, the
cool down will not last long as most medium range models suggest
the trof will shift off to our east by early next week with more
of a zonal flow developing over the Midwest resulting in a gradual
moderating trend through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Main aviation forecast concern continues to be developing convection
this evening. Based on latest radar trends and HRRR run, have
included a TEMPO group for thunder and MVFR ceilings at KPIA/KSPI
between 00z and 02z...then further east to KBMI/KDEC between 01z
and 03z. Given uncertainties in areal coverage further east, have
only mentioned VCTS at KCMI after 02z. Once the storms pass, NAM
forecast soundings suggest a period of MVFR ceilings before skies
clear overnight into Wednesday morning. Winds will initially be
from the south-southeast with gusts to around 25kt this
evening, then will veer to the west-southwest after frontal
passage this evening. As the pressure gradient tightens, very
strong W/SW winds gusting to between 30 and 35kt will be likely on
Wednesday.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
744 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
742 PM CDT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAD BEGUN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO NEAR QUINCY...AND HAS SINCE BECOME ORIENTED
FROM THE QUAD-CITIES STRETCHING SOUTH TO PIKE COUNTY ILLINOIS.
ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
A STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AND COULD LINGER
LONGER INTO THE EVENING. 18Z SOUNDINGS HAD SUGGESTED A MODEST LID
ON DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL IL...HOWEVER HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED THIS WARM LAYER ALOFT WOULD STEADILY DISSOLVE AND THAT
APPEARS TO BE THE CASE AT 00Z. 0- 3KM SHEAR REMAINS SOLID BOTH
WITH DIRECTIONAL/SPEED COMPONENTS...HOWEVER AS WE PROGRESS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS THE FOCUS BECOMES THE FORCING WITHIN THE SYSTEM
AND DEPTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP...AND IS EXPECTED TO SEE STEADY DEEPENING TO THE SFC
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...WITH LAPSE RATES REMAINING
STEEP.
A SUPERCELL THAT HAD EXHIBITED SOME ROATATION EARLIER THIS EVENING
IN THE HANCOCK/HENDERSON/WARREN IL COUNTIES WAS LIFTING
EAST/NORTHEAST...AND MAY BE ROOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE 330 THETA-E ADVECTION CONTOUR...WHICH LINES UP WITHIN THE
AREA OF DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. THIS MAY END UP FEEDING
ALONG THE HIGHER DEW POINT ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A SOUTH
OF GRUNDY/GARY LINE.
SHEAR REMAINS PRONOUNCED FURTHER NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH COULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS ALONG THE
CURRENT TORNADO WATCH COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF WINNEBAGO TO
LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. FURTHER EAST OF THIS AREA THE AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST...THE SHEAR WITHIN THE LOWEST 0-3KM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
GOOD ALTHOUGH EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BE TRANSITIONING TOWARDS
ELEVATED. DESPITE THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF I-80 AND EAST
OF THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR LARGE
HAIL INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MLCAPE WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN
THE 600-800J/KG RANGE OVER NORTHEAST IL...WITH RAPIDLY TURNING
WITHIN THE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION...BRINGING CONVECTION NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CHICAGO METRO AREA CLOSER TO 3-6Z TIMEFRAME.
BEACHLER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
320 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PROPAGATING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY PER GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS FOR MID-
MARCH... CHARACTERIZED BY AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS OF 55-60 INTO CENTRAL IL/WEST CENTRAL IN INCLUDING
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE WFO LOT CWA. WHILE SURFACE FLOW IS BACKED
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM
FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROXIMATELY NEAR A GALESBURG-PONTIAC-
LAFAYETTE LINE. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE WAS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL IL...WITH
SPC RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH CIN WEAKENING TO 100 J/KG OR LESS. DYNAMICS ARE BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AS WELL WITH APPROACH OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL WAVE...WITH 60 KT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AND
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 200-300 M2S2 IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTS INCREASING CU
FIELD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI...WHERE STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND HAS BEEN INDICATED BY HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. ENVIRONMENT
PRIMED FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND RECENT SPC MCD INDICATES
TORNADO WATCH LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN THE ENHANCED
RISK AREA TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. BASED ON HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...EVOLUTION STILL APPEARS TO BE INITIATION 22-23Z TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST... WITH STORMS THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 7-8 PM. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELLULAR STORMS
MOVING INTO THE CWA INITIALLY WITH OUR IL COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-80 LIKELY UNDER THE HIGHEST RISK. WIND AND TORNADO
THREAT...WHILE NOT ZERO...WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE CHICAGO METRO WITH SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH GRADUAL DIURNAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST HOWEVER ALL THE WAY TO
LAKE MICHIGAN AND OUR EASTERN CWA COUNTIES AND STORMS ARRIVE IN
THE 9-10 PM TIME FRAME AND LAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN AND ITS STRONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE IL/WI BORDER REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGH-
BASED INSTABILITY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE WISCONSIN
BORDER WITH DEEP ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING IN SPEED AND BECOMING GUSTY TO
40-45 MPH BY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
VERY DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 500-600 MB WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO/ABOVE 50 MPH BY MIDDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN IL... WITH THE GRADIENT A BIT WEAKER TO THE SOUTH. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE STRONGER GFS WINDS MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WI...THOUGH
ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS TO MAINTAIN OUR HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS
COUNTIES GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80. HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
(SUSTAINED 40 MPH /GUSTS 58 MPH). WITH GUSTY WINDS MODELS ARE
LIKELY TOO QUICK TO DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY
SEE WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
WITH GOOD MIXING...HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
TONIGHT...MID TO UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
244 PM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A STEADY COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE REVERSING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COLDEST DAY TIME TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF THAT. THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY ALLOWING
THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE U.P.
OF MICHIGAN TO QUICKLY WEAKEN. THIS WILL LEAVE A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. WEAK ENERGY WILL
MOVE DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH WHILE A DEEPER UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS QUEBEC WHICH THEN RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
AID IN THE SHARPENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMNANT FROM THE OLD
GREAT LAKES LOW THEN DRAW IT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY
SATURDAY. A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR EARLY BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S CHANGES ANYTHING TO RAIN INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SIGNAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. THE UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS EAST INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS SHARP RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW AS THE TROUGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND RIDGING CONTINUES WEST. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW PERHAPS LEADING
TO MINIMAL POPS CHANCES MONDAY. THE RIDGING WILL SHARPEN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE AT PRECIP. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. MID NEXT WEEK AND
A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST BUT DETAILS DIFFER QUITE A BIT. A
TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME DOES LOOK
FAVORED FOR MID WEEK.
MDB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...441 PM CDT
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF
50 TO 55 MPH. WITH SUN EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
POSSIBLY ALL DAY IN PLACES...MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY TO DIP
TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. RAINFALL TONIGHT IN ADDITION TO EXISTING FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 15 PERCENT SHOULD PREVENT TRUE RED
FLAG CRITERIA...BUT BREEZY AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AT
LEAST BE NEAR THRESHOLDS...AND WITH THE DEEPER MIXING 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES COULD NEAR 10 PERCENT IF AREAS...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH OF THE CHICAGO AREA...ESCAPE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
MTF/KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
632 PM...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN IA SOUTH TO
WESTERN IL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS AN ARRIVAL INTO THE
CHICAGO AREA AROUND 04Z BUT MAINTAINED 03Z TEMPO START TIMING FOR
NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
SPEED UP SOME. DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION LIKELY TO ONLY BE 1-2
HOURS AND AN END TIME BY 06Z SEEMS ON TRACK. TIMING INTO RFD A FEW
HOURS EARLIER.
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE AND THIS HAS BEEN A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SO FOR NOW HAVE JUST INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION BUT A SHORT
PERIOD OF PREVAILING SHOWERS MAY BE NEEDED IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.
EASTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT...SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PREVAILING GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40
KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY...FINALLY DIMINISHING EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MAINTAINED IFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING AS MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOWER CIGS WILL REDEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING CIGS THIS
EVENING IS LOW AND MAY REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER UNDER STORMS/PRECIP
ARRIVE. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR CIGS. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CDT
A STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WILL
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS (35 KT GALES)
LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY.
THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND. LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH DOWN
THE LAKE...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...7 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
HIGH WIND WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022...7 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
IN...HIGH WIND WATCH...INZ001-INZ002...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
WEDNESDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY.
STORM WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM WEDNESDAY TO
10 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM
WEDNESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
643 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 997mb low over northeast Missouri,
with a warm front extending E/SE across south-central Illinois.
Despite the presence of this forcing, convection has not yet
materialized across Missouri or Illinois as the atmosphere remains
capped. The short-wave trough that will eventually approach from
the west and break the cap is still well to the west across western
Kansas/Nebraska, so think cap will hold firm through the remainder
of the afternoon. HRRR has been consistently showing scattered
thunderstorms developing along the trailing cold front across
eastern Missouri after 21z/4pm...with the activity then tracking
E/NE into central Illinois this evening. 4km WRF-NMM has similar
timing, and both high-res models suggest the storms will quickly
shift out of the KILX CWA by midnight. Given strong directional low-
level wind shear in the vicinity of the warm front, the main mode of
any convection that develops later today will be supercellular. As
such, damaging wind gusts and large hail remain the primary
threats...although a few tornadoes will also be possible mainly
along and northwest of the I-55 corridor. Have therefore included
likely PoPs and mentioned severe weather across the western half of
the CWA this evening accordingly. Any convection that fires will
rapidly push eastward out of the area by midnight, with only a few
lingering rain showers across the NW from the Peoria area northward
after midnight. Once the storms pass, strong/gusty southwesterly
winds will develop, with forecast soundings and numeric guidance
suggesting gusts of 30-35 mph. Overnight lows will drop into the
middle to upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Deepening surface low pressure forecast to push into central
Wisconsin by 12z Wednesday with a tight pressure gradient over most
of the forecast area during the day. Forecast soundings showing 40-
45 kts just off the surface tomorrow mid morning through the
afternoon hours so wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph look likely over
most of the area, except south of the Interstate 70 corridor. As
a result, a wind advisory will be issued for a good portion of
the forecast area for tomorrow. Areas north of I-74 will get close
to some warning criteria winds, especially if the wrap around
moisture/clouds stay to our north like most of the models suggest.
Despite the passage of the cold front this evening, temperatures
will be mild again on Wednesday, although not as warm as today.
Look for highs to climb into the 60s most areas.
The strong surface low will begin to fill across the lower Great
Lakes on Thursday as upper level energy is transferred over to the
East Coast. This will result in an elongated surface trof from the
new low off New England west through the southern Great Lakes.
This feature will gradually slide south bringing a more extensive
cloud band south with it and the threat for some light precip
starting on Friday night and continuing on and off into Saturday
night. We may see a mix of rain and snow across our north Friday
night into early Saturday morning, and possibly again late
Saturday night into Sunday. No accumulations are expected with any
snow that does occur across our north.
The upper trof will gradually work its way southeast across the
Great Lakes on Sunday and Monday with rather cool temperatures
prevailing, at least compared to what we have had over the past
couple of days. However, with the trof being more progressive, the
cool down will not last long as most medium range models suggest
the trof will shift off to our east by early next week with more
of a zonal flow developing over the Midwest resulting in a gradual
moderating trend through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Main aviation forecast concern continues to be developing convection
this evening. Based on latest radar trends and HRRR run, have
included a TEMPO group for thunder and MVFR ceilings at KPIA/KSPI
between 00z and 02z...then further east to KBMI/KDEC between 01z
and 03z. Given uncertainties in areal coverage further east, have
only mentioned VCTS at KCMI after 02z. Once the storms pass, NAM
forecast soundings suggest a period of MVFR ceilings before skies
clear overnight into Wednesday morning. Winds will initially be
from the south-southeast with gusts to around 25kt this
evening, then will veer to the west-southwest after frontal
passage this evening. As the pressure gradient tightens, very
strong W/SW winds gusting to between 30 and 35kt will be likely on
Wednesday.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
632 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...
320 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PROPAGATING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY PER GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS FOR MID-
MARCH... CHARACTERIZED BY AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS OF 55-60 INTO CENTRAL IL/WEST CENTRAL IN INCLUDING
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE WFO LOT CWA. WHILE SURFACE FLOW IS BACKED
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM
FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROXIMATELY NEAR A GALESBURG-PONTIAC-
LAFAYETTE LINE. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE WAS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL IL...WITH
SPC RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH CIN WEAKENING TO 100 J/KG OR LESS. DYNAMICS ARE BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AS WELL WITH APPROACH OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL WAVE...WITH 60 KT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AND
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 200-300 M2S2 IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTS INCREASING CU
FIELD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI...WHERE STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND HAS BEEN INDICATED BY HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. ENVIRONMENT
PRIMED FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND RECENT SPC MCD INDICATES
TORNADO WATCH LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN THE ENHANCED
RISK AREA TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. BASED ON HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...EVOLUTION STILL APPEARS TO BE INITIATION 22-23Z TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST... WITH STORMS THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 7-8 PM. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELLULAR STORMS
MOVING INTO THE CWA INITIALLY WITH OUR IL COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-80 LIKELY UNDER THE HIGHEST RISK. WIND AND TORNADO
THREAT...WHILE NOT ZERO...WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE CHICAGO METRO WITH SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH GRADUAL DIURNAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST HOWEVER ALL THE WAY TO
LAKE MICHIGAN AND OUR EASTERN CWA COUNTIES AND STORMS ARRIVE IN
THE 9-10 PM TIME FRAME AND LAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN AND ITS STRONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE IL/WI BORDER REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGH-
BASED INSTABILITY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE WISCONSIN
BORDER WITH DEEP ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING IN SPEED AND BECOMING GUSTY TO
40-45 MPH BY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
VERY DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 500-600 MB WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO/ABOVE 50 MPH BY MIDDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN IL... WITH THE GRADIENT A BIT WEAKER TO THE SOUTH. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE STRONGER GFS WINDS MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WI...THOUGH
ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS TO MAINTAIN OUR HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS
COUNTIES GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80. HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
(SUSTAINED 40 MPH /GUSTS 58 MPH). WITH GUSTY WINDS MODELS ARE
LIKELY TOO QUICK TO DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY
SEE WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
WITH GOOD MIXING...HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
TONIGHT...MID TO UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
244 PM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A STEADY COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE REVERSING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COLDEST DAY TIME TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF THAT. THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY ALLOWING
THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE U.P.
OF MICHIGAN TO QUICKLY WEAKEN. THIS WILL LEAVE A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. WEAK ENERGY WILL
MOVE DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH WHILE A DEEPER UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS QUEBEC WHICH THEN RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
AID IN THE SHARPENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMNANT FROM THE OLD
GREAT LAKES LOW THEN DRAW IT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY
SATURDAY. A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR EARLY BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S CHANGES ANYTHING TO RAIN INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SIGNAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. THE UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS EAST INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS SHARP RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW AS THE TROUGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND RIDGING CONTINUES WEST. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW PERHAPS LEADING
TO MINIMAL POPS CHANCES MONDAY. THE RIDGING WILL SHARPEN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE AT PRECIP. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. MID NEXT WEEK AND
A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST BUT DETAILS DIFFER QUITE A BIT. A
TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME DOES LOOK
FAVORED FOR MID WEEK.
MDB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
441 PM CDT
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF
50 TO 55 MPH. WITH SUN EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
POSSIBLY ALL DAY IN PLACES...MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY TO DIP
TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. RAINFALL TONIGHT IN ADDITION TO EXISTING FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 15 PERCENT SHOULD PREVENT TRUE RED
FLAG CRITERIA...BUT BREEZY AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AT
LEAST BE NEAR THRESHOLDS...AND WITH THE DEEPER MIXING 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES COULD NEAR 10 PERCENT IF AREAS...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH OF THE CHICAGO AREA...ESCAPE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
MTF/KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
632 PM...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN IA SOUTH TO
WESTERN IL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS AN ARRIVAL INTO THE
CHICAGO AREA AROUND 04Z BUT MAINTAINED 03Z TEMPO START TIMING FOR
NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
SPEED UP SOME. DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION LIKELY TO ONLY BE 1-2
HOURS AND AN END TIME BY 06Z SEEMS ON TRACK. TIMING INTO RFD A FEW
HOURS EARLIER.
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE AND THIS HAS BEEN A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SO FOR NOW HAVE JUST INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION BUT A SHORT
PERIOD OF PREVAILING SHOWERS MAY BE NEEDED IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.
EASTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT...SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PREVAILING GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40
KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY...FINALLY DIMINISHING EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MAINTAINED IFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING AS MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOWER CIGS WILL REDEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING CIGS THIS
EVENING IS LOW AND MAY REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER UNDER STORMS/PRECIP
ARRIVE. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR CIGS. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CDT
A STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WILL
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS (35 KT GALES)
LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY.
THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND. LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH DOWN
THE LAKE...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...7 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
HIGH WIND WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022...7 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
IN...HIGH WIND WATCH...INZ001-INZ002...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
WEDNESDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS
UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY.
STORM WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM WEDNESDAY TO
10 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN
UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
254 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
19z/2pm visible satellite imagery continues to show cloudy skies
across central Illinois: however, holes are developing in the
overcast...particularly upstream across Iowa/Missouri. Low-level
flow remains weak, but this drier air will eventually filter into
the area this evening, resulting in a partial clearing trend. With
some clearing taking place and winds staying quite light, think fog
will re-develop tonight. Mitigating factors for widespread dense
fog will be partial cloud cover and increasing southeasterly winds
after midnight. HRRR is showing fog forming across much of the area
this evening, then becoming locally dense after midnight. Think
this is a bit overdone, so will only carry patchy fog at this time.
Most high-res models are suggesting scattered convection will
develop overnight across northern Missouri into Iowa as a
strengthening low-level jet noses into that area. Some of this
activity could spill into west-central Illinois toward dawn, so have
included low chance PoPs for showers/thunder along and west of the
Illinois River well after midnight. Overnight lows will be in the
lower to middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
Forecast concern continues to revolve around the the threat for
severe weather over parts of central through east central Illinois
tomorrow afternoon and evening as a rather potent upper wave
pushes into the Midwest.
Looks as though scattered precip chances tomorrow will be tied to
the surface and 850 mb warm front in the morning, mostly across
the west and north, and then along the cold front during the mid
to late afternoon and early evening hours as the cap weakens due
to increasing low level convergence forecast along the accelerating
cold front. The GFS continues to be the fast model, although
recent runs have trended a bit slower tomorrow afternoon, while
the ECMWF is deepest and slowest with the surface and upper level
features. Due to the slower movement in the cold frontal passage
and the cap holding on a bit longer than previously forecast, it
appears the main time frame for the threat for scattered storms
across the forecast area will be roughly 4pm until 10 pm. The NAM
and ECMWF indicates the better low level shear profiles for any
persistent rotating storms capable of large hail and isolated
tornadoes will be along and north of I-74, while low level wind
profiles become more unidirectional further south by late in the
afternoon. However, the further south you go, the stronger the
capping inversion is, but believe at least widely scattered storms
will be possible as you head into southeast IL late tomorrow
afternoon through the evening hours. All models indicate steep low
and mid level lapse rates with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching
8 C/KM tomorrow afternoon and evening suggesting the threat for
large hail along with damaging wind gusts, especially if the mode
transitions to a line of storms with time late in the afternoon
into the evening hours.
Models sweep the storms well off to our east by 03z with lingering
low chance POPs over the far north during the overnight hours
along with gusty winds as the deepening surface low shifts slowly
off to our north. Windy but mild conditions are expected Wednesday
before we see a gradual transition to cooler weather by the end of
the week and next weekend where afternoon temperatures will lower
into the upper 40s to lower 50s. As far as precip is concerned in
the extended, several weak waves are forecast to rotate south
around the deep upper low to our north which may produce some
isolated light showers with the main threat of rain coming along
over the weekend as the upper low to our north repositions itself
a bit further south over the Midwest. This will bring about
mentionable rain chances in the forecast on Saturday into Saturday
night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
IFR ceilings prevailed across central Illinois this morning:
however, ceilings are gradually rising into the MVFR category
early this afternoon as drier air tries to work into the area
from the southwest. Latest visible satellite imagery shows plenty
of breaks developing in the overcast upstream across southern Iowa
into Missouri, but with only very light low-level flow, think any
appreciable clearing will be delayed until this evening. Models
are in disagreement, with the NAM partially clearing things out
and the Rapid Refresh generally keeping it cloudy. Based on
satellite imagery, have sided with the more optimistic NAM. As
such, have removed ceilings at KSPI by 01z, then further northeast
to KCMI by 05z. If skies do indeed partially clear, light winds
and ample boundary layer moisture will lead to fog development
once again tonight. Have indicated that by including 2-4 mile
visbys at all terminals from mid-evening through the overnight
hours. A few WAA showers/thunder may develop overnight across
Iowa/Missouri, so have included VCSH at KPIA in case a few showers
spread that far eastward late tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1138 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
Weather system that produced today`s rainfall has shifted off into
the Great Lakes, taking the bulk of the showers with it. However,
another system, currently spinning across Arkansas, is expected to
track northeast into the Ohio River Valley later tonight. This
system will bring a renewed threat for showers, especially south
of I-70. Southeast Illinois may also see a few thunderstorms with
this rainfall. Light winds between these two weather systems and
the moist ground from today`s rains will set the table for areas
of fog to develop. While there is the potential for dense fog to
develop, expect this threat to be mitigated to at least some
degree by the thick cloud cover in place.
Going forecast was in good overall shape. Main updates required
were to precipitation trends, with mainly dry conditions expected
for the next several hours until the next system draws closer.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1005mb low near KPIA, with
widespread light showers ongoing across the western half of the KILX
CWA. Further east and south, the steady precip has diminished to
widely scattered showers along/south of a Danville to Taylorville
line. The primary area of rain will continue to dissipate/retreat
northward as the low tracks into northern Illinois this evening.
Based on radar timing tools, most of the rain will be just north of
the CWA by early evening. Will therefore only carry chance PoPs
through the evening, with highest chances focused across the far
north around Galesburg and Lacon in closer proximity to the departing
low. A second area of low pressure currently over Oklahoma will
track into western Kentucky by Monday morning. This feature will
spread showers and a few thunderstorms into the SE CWA overnight, so
have carried likely PoPs along/south of I-70 after midnight
accordingly. Due to a very weak pressure gradient, winds will be
light and variable tonight. With nearly calm winds and ample low-
level moisture left behind by the rainfall today, think fog will re-
develop across the area tonight. HRRR continues to show widespread
fog across all but the SE where rain will be falling. The fog could
potentially become dense: however, timing and areal extent remain in
question. Will carry areas of fog in the forecast, but later shifts
may need to issue a Dense Fog Advisory if trends become apparent
later this evening.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
Forecast focus this period on the threat for severe weather over
parts of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Compact upper level storm tracking east-northeast through Arkansas
then into western Ky Monday morning will bring showers and isolated
storms to parts of southeast Illinois, at least through the morning
hours, while further north, the low clouds, fog and shower chances
end from northwest to southeast during the morning with only the
southeast quarter of the forecast area still seeing the threat for
afternoon showers. Forecast soundings continue to hold on to the low
level moisture across the area into the afternoon hours so the
prospects for much in the way of sunshine are low, with most areas
seeing afternoon temperatures rise into the low to mid 60s.
As the deepening upper wave for Tuesday pushes across the Rockies
and into the high Plains late Monday night, the threat for at
least scattered showers and storms will increase out to our west
Monday night with chances increasing over our western counties
after Midnight. Still some significant differences with respect to
how quickly the upper wave tracks east across the Great Lakes with
the ECMWF the slowest, while the GFS remains the fastest in pushing
the front to our east by late afternoon Tuesday. The ECMWF digs
the shortwave southeast in response to ridging over the eastern
Pacific and that is tending to slow the system down compared to
the more progressive look from the GFS and SREF ensemble solutions.
You would have thought we would have seen a slowing trend from the
GFS, NAM and SREF solutions by now, but up through the 12z models
runs of today, we haven`t, which keeps confidence on timing and
storm mode in our area on Tuesday low.
All models continue to show deep layer shear associated with the
upper wave as it becomes negatively tilted late in the day Tuesday
with strong low level turning of the winds seen on the hodographs,
especially off the NAM. 850 mb winds depicted on the ECMWF were
southeasterly at 40-45 kts in the 21z-00z time frame across our
north. SREF forecasts of surface dew points were a bit more
conservative on Tuesday afternoon, compared with the NAM, with
mostly middle 50s forecast across our area, while the NAM near
60 degree dew points which pushed SB cape values above 2500 J/KG
over the eastern half of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon.
Forecast soundings off the NAM and GFS continue to show a capping
inversion in place at least into the early afternoon hours before
low level convergence starts to increase in the 925-850 mb layer
just ahead of the front, which should allow convection to
develop. The 4km NAM-WRF reflectivity simulations suggest the
development of storms off to our east after 21z just ahead of the
increasing low level moisture convergence. However, if the timing
off the ECMWF is correct, storms will develop by mid afternoon
further west, along or just west of Interstate 55 and streak east-
northeast through the rest of the forecast area by 02z.
Based off the low level wind profiles seen on the ECMWF, discrete
supercells capable of large hail (with 700-500 mb lapse rates over
7.0 C/KM) damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible
for a few hours, especially if the high dew points seen on the NAM
verify, before cells consolidate into a fast moving line with
mainly a damaging wind threat through late afternoon into early
evening. If the GFS verifies, storms will develop in areas east of
I-55 and be out of our area by 00z. Still quite a bit of uncertainty
with the timing of the shortwave and attendant cold front for late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. For now, will continue to mention
the higher probabilities for damaging straight line winds and hail
in the HWO for Tuesday, but as mentioned above, if the low level
moisture increases more than what is advertised in most models,
the tornado threat will start to become a concern as well Tuesday
afternoon.
Highest POPS for Tuesday will continue to be across the north with
progressively lower POPs as you head south during the afternoon and
evening. Strong gusty southerly winds are expected by late morning
into the afternoon hours as the deepening upper and surface lows
track to our west-northwest. Shower chances start to decrease
later Tuesday night as the front shifts well off to our east and
then windy conditions expected Wednesday in the wake of the storm
as it tracks slowly east across north-central Wisconsin.
Temperatures at least initially, will not cool off much on Wed.
with upper 50s to lower 60s expected during the afternoon, with
the gradual cooling trend starting on Thursday and continuing
through Sunday with temperatures returning closer to normal for
this time of year. Our next chance for rain across central IL will
be next weekend, but POPs were kept low this far out as model
spread was large.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
IFR conditions will continue to be a concern across the central
Illinois terminals well into Monday. Showers across the region,
associated with a couple separate weather systems, will remain
considerably less numerous than they were earlier today, but
fog/stratus will be widespread. Conditions should gradually
improve to MVFR Monday afternoon, with VFR likely by Monday
evening as the systems pull further away. Light/variable winds
should prevail through the period.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1122 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1121 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A
CASSOPOLIS TO PLYMOUTH TO LOGANSPORT LINE. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM IS SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR IMPENDING STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE MO
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECTED TIMING OF STORM INITIATION AND
FRONTAL FORCING INTO THE AREA LENDS A RATHER CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. LATEST CONSENSUS
TRENDS FROM HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL STORM ARRIVAL
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 04Z...WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF SOLUTIONS EXPANDING STORM COVERAGE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE 09-11Z TIMEFRAME. THIS
FORECAST THINKING IS REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS WITH CAT/HIGH LIKELY
POPS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
A FEW QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO THE SEVERE RISK FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS. SFC CYCLONE IN
CENTRAL MO WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVE
AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB TROF...WITH NOSE 100-130KT 250MB
JET AND 80- 100KT 500MB JET PUSHING INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z
AND 06Z. THE DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT JUST UPSTREAM IN INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIV...STRONG SFC FRONTAL
FORCING...INCREASING LOW LVL JET AND SFC-06KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASING TO 50-65KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERMODYNAMICALLY...
SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG NOTED CENTRAL IL JUST AHEAD
OF THE SFC COLD FRONT BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. STOUT EML NOTED WITH MID
LVL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 8C/KM ADVECTING THROUGH THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG
LIVED AND FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL LOW FOR TORNADO
POTENTIAL...LOW TO MEDIUM FOR WIND AND MEDIUM TO HIGH TO
HAIL...WITH EXPLANATION BELOW.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN QUESTION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS THE TIMING
OF THE STORMS AND POTENTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AFTER
03Z. THE STORMS WILL BE INITIALLY SFC BASED ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS
EVENING. WITH THE LOW 60F DEWPOINTS AND LCLS BETWEEN 500-700M IN
CENTRAL IL...A DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND TORNADO RISK ARE ALL IN
PLAY. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARDS 03Z...LOW
LEVEL JET RAMPS UP WITH INCREASINGLY BACKED SFC FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY 03Z...LARGE CURVED
HODOGRAPHS NOTED W/ HI RES FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH 0-1KM SRH
VALUES IN THE 300-500 RANGE...INCREASING THROUGH 06Z. WHILE LOW
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE VERY CONCERNING FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A LAPORTE TO PERU LINE...STORMS MAY BE TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE ELEVATED NATURE AS NEAR SURFACE BL COOLS.
HOWEVER...RIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 03-06Z TIME
FRAME...THERE MAY BE A CROSSHAIR OF LOW ENOUGH LCLS AND ENOUGH SFC
BASED INSTABILITY TO STRETCH THE HIGHLY SHEARED LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR A LOW TO MEDIUM TORNADO RISK. MUCH OF THIS IS
CONDITIONAL ON UPSTREAM SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND STORM EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER IF THINGS COME TO FRUITION UPSTREAM...A TORNADO RISK COULD
PERSIST INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z ALONG WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. RIGHT
NOW...CURRENT THINKING IS TORNADO THREAT IS OVERALL LOW...AS
EXPECTED BL STABILIZATION AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME WILL QUICKLY
PRECLUDE TORNADO POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING STORMS TO BECOME MAINLY ELEVATED TOWARDS
06Z AND BEYOND. WITH ELEVATED LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES FROM
500-1500 J/KG AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-7.5C/KM...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WIND
FIELD ALOFT. OVERALL FROM 06Z AND BEYOND...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH A GENERALLY WEAKENING TREND. ANY
REMAINING STORMS/PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE E/NE JUST
BEFORE 12Z.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE SW QUADRANT OF THE SFC LOW.
850MB FLOW PEAKS ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AROUND 60 KTS...WITH 925MB FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE.
CURRENT THINKING IS WIDESPREAD WINDS 30 MPH GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY...PARTICULARLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALLOWING
FOR AMPLE MIXING. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 12Z THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN
SRN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY MORNING WITH VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL FILL
AND SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO SOUTHWARD BUILDING CENTRAL CANADIAN RIDGE. THIS MAY
BRING SCATTERED PRECIP TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PINCHED OFF TROUGH SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A COOLER PERIOD WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW
NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A CUT OFF
LOW ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ELONGATED TROUGH SPREADS EASTWARD
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AS THE CANADIAN
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST US. MODELS STILL
VARY WITH HOW TO HANDLE THIS CUTOFF LOW...SO LEFT POPS IN THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE SAT THROUGH SUN. PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH ANY PRECIP
SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...WITH MUCH OF THE SOUNDING BELOW FREEZING.
GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE
GREATLY WITH FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND MONDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 802 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
CHANGES WRT 00 UTC TAFS INCLUDE LATER TSRA TIMING ALONG WITH SIG
WIND SPEED/GUST INCREASES POST FRONTAL FOR WED. LATEST RAP AND
TIMING OF ONGOING UPSTREAM CONVECTION SUGGEST A LATER 1-2 HOURS OF
THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION. WITH PIVOT POINT OF NORTHERN
EXTENT OF LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY REMAINING SOUTH OF
KSBN AND WITH EFFECTIVE POST FRONTAL SCOUR RELEGATED IFR
CONDITIONS TO TEMPO GROUP VS STANDALONE CHANGE GROUP. WITH
NORTHERN INDIANA IN CENTRAL BULLSEYE OF N/S 11MB/3 HR SURFACE
PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET AT 12 UTC FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING MIXING
BY MIDDAY WITH SWRLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 25G40 KTS
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
803 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING... BRINGING A
WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS BEING REACHED
DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE
60S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 70S INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP EAST LATE TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM IS SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR IMPENDING STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE MO
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECTED TIMING OF STORM INITIATION AND
FRONTAL FORCING INTO THE AREA LENDS A RATHER CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. LATEST CONSENSUS
TRENDS FROM HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL STORM ARRIVAL
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 04Z...WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF SOLUTIONS EXPANDING STORM COVERAGE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE 09-11Z TIMEFRAME. THIS
FORECAST THINKING IS REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS WITH CAT/HIGH LIKELY
POPS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
A FEW QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO THE SEVERE RISK FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS. SFC CYCLONE IN
CENTRAL MO WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVE
AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB TROF...WITH NOSE 100-130KT 250MB
JET AND 80- 100KT 500MB JET PUSHING INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z
AND 06Z. THE DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT JUST UPSTREAM IN INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIV...STRONG SFC FRONTAL
FORCING...INCREASING LOW LVL JET AND SFC-06KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASING TO 50-65KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERMODYNAMICALLY...
SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG NOTED CENTRAL IL JUST AHEAD
OF THE SFC COLD FRONT BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. STOUT EML NOTED WITH MID
LVL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 8C/KM ADVECTING THROUGH THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG
LIVED AND FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL LOW FOR TORNADO
POTENTIAL...LOW TO MEDIUM FOR WIND AND MEDIUM TO HIGH TO
HAIL...WITH EXPLANATION BELOW.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN QUESTION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS THE TIMING
OF THE STORMS AND POTENTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AFTER
03Z. THE STORMS WILL BE INITIALLY SFC BASED ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS
EVENING. WITH THE LOW 60F DEWPOINTS AND LCLS BETWEEN 500-700M IN
CENTRAL IL...A DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND TORNADO RISK ARE ALL IN
PLAY. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARDS 03Z...LOW
LEVEL JET RAMPS UP WITH INCREASINGLY BACKED SFC FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY 03Z...LARGE CURVED
HODOGRAPHS NOTED W/ HI RES FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH 0-1KM SRH
VALUES IN THE 300-500 RANGE...INCREASING THROUGH 06Z. WHILE LOW
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE VERY CONCERNING FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A LAPORTE TO PERU LINE...STORMS MAY BE TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE ELEVATED NATURE AS NEAR SURFACE BL COOLS.
HOWEVER...RIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 03-06Z TIME
FRAME...THERE MAY BE A CROSSHAIR OF LOW ENOUGH LCLS AND ENOUGH SFC
BASED INSTABILITY TO STRETCH THE HIGHLY SHEARED LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR A LOW TO MEDIUM TORNADO RISK. MUCH OF THIS IS
CONDITIONAL ON UPSTREAM SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND STORM EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER IF THINGS COME TO FRUITION UPSTREAM...A TORNADO RISK COULD
PERSIST INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z ALONG WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. RIGHT
NOW...CURRENT THINKING IS TORNADO THREAT IS OVERALL LOW...AS
EXPECTED BL STABILIZATION AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME WILL QUICKLY
PRECLUDE TORNADO POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING STORMS TO BECOME MAINLY ELEVATED TOWARDS
06Z AND BEYOND. WITH ELEVATED LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES FROM
500-1500 J/KG AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-7.5C/KM...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WIND
FIELD ALOFT. OVERALL FROM 06Z AND BEYOND...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH A GENERALLY WEAKENING TREND. ANY
REMAINING STORMS/PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE E/NE JUST
BEFORE 12Z.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE SW QUADRANT OF THE SFC LOW.
850MB FLOW PEAKS ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AROUND 60 KTS...WITH 925MB FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE.
CURRENT THINKING IS WIDESPREAD WINDS 30 MPH GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY...PARTICULARLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALLOWING
FOR AMPLE MIXING. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 12Z THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN
SRN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY MORNING WITH VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL FILL
AND SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO SOUTHWARD BUILDING CENTRAL CANADIAN RIDGE. THIS MAY
BRING SCATTERED PRECIP TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PINCHED OFF TROUGH SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A COOLER PERIOD WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW
NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A CUT OFF
LOW ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ELONGATED TROUGH SPREADS EASTWARD
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AS THE CANADIAN
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST US. MODELS STILL
VARY WITH HOW TO HANDLE THIS CUTOFF LOW...SO LEFT POPS IN THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE SAT THROUGH SUN. PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH ANY PRECIP
SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...WITH MUCH OF THE SOUNDING BELOW FREEZING.
GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE
GREATLY WITH FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND MONDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 802 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
CHANGES WRT 00 UTC TAFS INCLUDE LATER TSRA TIMING ALONG WITH SIG
WIND SPEED/GUST INCREASES POST FRONTAL FOR WED. LATEST RAP AND
TIMING OF ONGOING UPSTREAM CONVECTION SUGGEST A LATER 1-2 HOURS OF
THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION. WITH PIVOT POINT OF NORTHERN
EXTENT OF LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY REMAINING SOUTH OF
KSBN AND WITH EFFECTIVE POST FRONTAL SCOUR RELEGATED IFR
CONDITIONS TO TEMPO GROUP VS STANDALONE CHANGE GROUP. WITH
NORTHERN INDIANA IN CENTRAL BULLSEYE OF N/S 11MB/3 HR SURFACE
PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET AT 12 UTC FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING MIXING
BY MIDDAY WITH SWRLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 25G40 KTS
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1010 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME OF THESE
COULD BE SEVERE. A FEW FRONTS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN MID
WEEK ON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL COOL TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ARKANSAS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA.
THE UPPER LOW /AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...AND SUFFICIENT FORCING WITH
THE LOWS SHOULD PROVIDE RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
TODAY PERIOD.
WILL GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS TODAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ONLY WENT HIGH
CHANCE POPS./12
TRIED TO TIME HOURLY POPS BASED ON A BLEND OF HI RES MODEL
FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THOUGH AS
SYSTEM MOVES IN.
USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ON SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS
USED.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR EAST EARLY TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
DRY NIGHT WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARM AND MOIST AIR.
HOWEVER FORCING REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. THUS
KEPT MOST AREAS DRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ONLY ALLOWING FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER JET MOVES IN ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH. THIS FORCING SHOULD CREATE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS ILLINOIS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
GOOD SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...DURING THIS TIME
INSTABILITY WILL START TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THUS FEEL THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST OF A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS GOOD...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF
SEVERE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS...WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. MOST FORCING EXITS
BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THEN.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT A WEAK UPPER WAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HOWEVER...WENT WARMER THAN THE BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY WITH
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON WEEKEND SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER.
THE LONG TERM SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR SEASONABLE BY FRIDAY PER
ACCEPTED THE REGIONAL BLEND. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH AND MARGINAL MOISTURE.
THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN UPPER
WEEKEND TROUGH. THE GFS MOVES IT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE ECMWF SUNDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY...THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL KICK UP A WAVE ALONG THE THE STALLED GULF STATES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BRING THAT SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH
WAVES KICKED OUT BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES
BACK TO AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
REST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING ON SUNDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF A PLAINS
RIDGE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
IS REFLECTED WELL WITH THE REGIONAL BLEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 141500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPANDING NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER WABASH
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAIN AND
THUNDER CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
MARGINALLY VFR SO FAR THIS MORNING BUT AS THE RAIN EXPANDS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE
BEEN MVFR OR BETTER THE BULK OF THE TIME. THE SHOWERS WERE MOVING IN
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE HRRR HAD THEM COMING IN...AND THEY WERE
ALSO NOT QUITE AS EXPANSIVE AS EXPECTED. SO...WILL ONLY START WITH
VCSH AND THEN A 4 HOUR SHOWER TEMPO GROUP UNTIL THE SHOWERS MOVE OUT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LAMP MOS AND SREF SUGGEST THERE COULD BE AT LEAST TEMPO OR WORSE
FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...SHOULD SEE A
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IS
NOT GREAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE IMPROVEMENT TREND IS GOOD.
COULD ALSO SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SO...WILL CHANGE VCSH TO VCTS AFTER 16Z AT BMG AND HUF
AND AFTER 17Z AT IND AND LAF. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
21Z-23Z.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN BECOME LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
646 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME OF THESE
COULD BE SEVERE. A FEW FRONTS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN MID
WEEK ON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL COOL TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ARKANSAS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA.
THE UPPER LOW /AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...AND SUFFICIENT FORCING WITH
THE LOWS SHOULD PROVIDE RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
TODAY PERIOD.
WILL GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS TODAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ONLY WENT HIGH
CHANCE POPS.
TRIED TO TIME HOURLY POPS BASED ON A BLEND OF HI RES MODEL
FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THOUGH AS
SYSTEM MOVES IN.
USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ON SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS
USED.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR EAST EARLY TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
DRY NIGHT WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARM AND MOIST AIR.
HOWEVER FORCING REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. THUS
KEPT MOST AREAS DRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ONLY ALLOWING FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER JET MOVES IN ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH. THIS FORCING SHOULD CREATE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS ILLINOIS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
GOOD SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...DURING THIS TIME
INSTABILITY WILL START TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THUS FEEL THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST OF A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS GOOD...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF
SEVERE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS...WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. MOST FORCING EXITS
BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THEN.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT A WEAK UPPER WAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HOWEVER...WENT WARMER THAN THE BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY WITH
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON WEEKEND SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER.
THE LONG TERM SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR SEASONABLE BY FRIDAY PER
ACCEPTED THE REGIONAL BLEND. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH AND MARGINAL MOISTURE.
THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN UPPER
WEEKEND TROUGH. THE GFS MOVES IT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE ECMWF SUNDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY...THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL KICK UP A WAVE ALONG THE THE STALLED GULF STATES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BRING THAT SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH
WAVES KICKED OUT BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES
BACK TO AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
REST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING ON SUNDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF A PLAINS
RIDGE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
IS REFLECTED WELL WITH THE REGIONAL BLEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE
BEEN MVFR OR BETTER THE BULK OF THE TIME. THE SHOWERS WERE MOVING IN
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE HRRR HAD THEM COMING IN...AND THEY WERE
ALSO NOT QUITE AS EXPANSIVE AS EXPECTED. SO...WILL ONLY START WITH
VCSH AND THEN A 4 HOUR SHOWER TEMPO GROUP UNTIL THE SHOWERS MOVE OUT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LAMP MOS AND SREF SUGGEST THERE COULD BE AT LEAST TEMPO OR WORSE
FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...SHOULD SEE A
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IS
NOT GREAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE IMPROVEMENT TREND IS GOOD.
COULD ALSO SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SO...WILL CHANGE VCSH TO VCTS AFTER 16Z AT BMG AND HUF
AND AFTER 17Z AT IND AND LAF. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
21Z-23Z.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN BECOME LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME OF THESE
COULD BE SEVERE. A FEW FRONTS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN MID
WEEK ON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL COOL TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ARKANSAS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA.
THE UPPER LOW /AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...AND SUFFICIENT FORCING WITH
THE LOWS SHOULD PROVIDE RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
TODAY PERIOD.
WILL GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS TODAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ONLY WENT HIGH
CHANCE POPS.
TRIED TO TIME HOURLY POPS BASED ON A BLEND OF HI RES MODEL
FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THOUGH AS
SYSTEM MOVES IN.
USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ON SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS
USED.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR EAST EARLY TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
DRY NIGHT WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARM AND MOIST AIR.
HOWEVER FORCING REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. THUS
KEPT MOST AREAS DRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ONLY ALLOWING FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER JET MOVES IN ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH. THIS FORCING SHOULD CREATE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS ILLINOIS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
GOOD SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...DURING THIS TIME
INSTABILITY WILL START TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THUS FEEL THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST OF A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS GOOD...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF
SEVERE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS...WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. MOST FORCING EXITS
BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THEN.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT A WEAK UPPER WAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HOWEVER...WENT WARMER THAN THE BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY WITH
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON WEEKEND SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER.
THE LONG TERM SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR SEASONABLE BY FRIDAY PER
ACCEPTED THE REGIONAL BLEND. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH AND MARGINAL MOISTURE.
THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN UPPER
WEEKEND TROUGH. THE GFS MOVES IT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE ECMWF SUNDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY...THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL KICK UP A WAVE ALONG THE THE STALLED GULF STATES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BRING THAT SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH
WAVES KICKED OUT BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES
BACK TO AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
REST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING ON SUNDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF A PLAINS
RIDGE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
IS REFLECTED WELL WITH THE REGIONAL BLEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/09Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
PUSHED THE START OF THE SHOWERS BACK TO 12 BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER THROUGH 09Z...OTHERWISE...FLYING
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING BACK AND FOURTH...MAINLY BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR. LAMP MOS AND SREF SUGGEST MVFR OR VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS IFR
AT LAF...CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. THEN...SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HRRR SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS WILL REACH BMG AND HUF
AROUND 09Z...IND AROUND 10Z AND LAF 12Z. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT AFTER 21Z WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BECOME VFR.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO WEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
COULD SEE SOME THUNDER TODAY. HOWEVER...COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
311 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME OF THESE
COULD BE SEVERE. A FEW FRONTS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN MID
WEEK ON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL COOL TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ARKANSAS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA.
THE UPPER LOW /AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...AND SUFFICIENT FORCING WITH
THE LOWS SHOULD PROVIDE RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
TODAY PERIOD.
WILL GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS TODAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ONLY WENT HIGH
CHANCE POPS.
TRIED TO TIME HOURLY POPS BASED ON A BLEND OF HI RES MODEL
FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THOUGH AS
SYSTEM MOVES IN.
USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ON SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS
USED.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR EAST EARLY TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
DRY NIGHT WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARM AND MOIST AIR.
HOWEVER FORCING REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. THUS
KEPT MOST AREAS DRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ONLY ALLOWING FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER JET MOVES IN ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH. THIS FORCING SHOULD CREATE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS ILLINOIS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
GOOD SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...DURING THIS TIME
INSTABILITY WILL START TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THUS FEEL THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST OF A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS GOOD...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF
SEVERE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS...WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. MOST FORCING EXITS
BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THEN.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT A WEAK UPPER WAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HOWEVER...WENT WARMER THAN THE BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY WITH
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON WEEKEND SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER.
THE LONG TERM SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR SEASONABLE BY FRIDAY PER
ACCEPTED THE REGIONAL BLEND. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH AND MARGINAL MOISTURE.
THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN UPPER
WEEKEND TROUGH. THE GFS MOVES IT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE ECMWF SUNDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY...THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL KICK UP A WAVE ALONG THE THE STALLED GULF STATES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BRING THAT SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH
WAVES KICKED OUT BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES
BACK TO AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
REST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING ON SUNDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF A PLAINS
RIDGE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
IS REFLECTED WELL WITH THE REGIONAL BLEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER THROUGH 09Z...OTHERWISE...FLYING
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING BACK AND FOURTH...MAINLY BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR. LAMP MOS AND SREF SUGGEST MVFR OR VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS IFR
AT LAF...CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. THEN...SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HRRR SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS WILL REACH BMG AND HUF
AROUND 09Z...IND AROUND 10Z AND LAF 12Z. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT AFTER 21Z WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BECOME VFR.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO WEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
COULD SEE SOME THUNDER TODAY. HOWEVER...COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME OF THESE
COULD BE SEVERE. A FEW FRONTS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN MID
WEEK ON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL COOL TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ARKANSAS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA.
THE UPPER LOW /AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...AND SUFFICIENT FORCING WITH
THE LOWS SHOULD PROVIDE RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
TODAY PERIOD.
WILL GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS TODAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ONLY WENT HIGH
CHANCE POPS.
TRIED TO TIME HOURLY POPS BASED ON A BLEND OF HI RES MODEL
FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THOUGH AS
SYSTEM MOVES IN.
USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ON SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS
USED.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR EAST EARLY TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
DRY NIGHT WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARM AND MOIST AIR.
HOWEVER FORCING REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. THUS
KEPT MOST AREAS DRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ONLY ALLOWING FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER JET MOVES IN ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH. THIS FORCING SHOULD CREATE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS ILLINOIS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
GOOD SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...DURING THIS TIME
INSTABILITY WILL START TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THUS FEEL THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST OF A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS GOOD...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF
SEVERE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS...WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. MOST FORCING EXITS
BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THEN.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT A WEAK UPPER WAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HOWEVER...WENT WARMER THAN THE BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY WITH
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SUN MAR 13 2016
MODELS DIG AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY ON AND THEN
MOVE IT INTO OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
THUS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
LONG TERM.
CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT US. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH A
DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO OUR FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT THERE ARE BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR NOW AND WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS THIS
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON ANY TIMING IS LOW.
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH BY SUNDAY...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
THEN. OTHERWISE...STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL INITIALIZATION MOST
OTHER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER THROUGH 09Z...OTHERWISE...FLYING
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING BACK AND FOURTH...MAINLY BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR. LAMP MOS AND SREF SUGGEST MVFR OR VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS IFR
AT LAF...CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. THEN...SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HRRR SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS WILL REACH BMG AND HUF
AROUND 09Z...IND AROUND 10Z AND LAF 12Z. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT AFTER 21Z WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BECOME VFR.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO WEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
COULD SEE SOME THUNDER TODAY. HOWEVER...COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
125 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
AS ONE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH OUT OF THE
AREA...ANOTHER ONE WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF RAIN AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY STRONGER FLOW
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH 02Z TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE IS TO PRESENT SOME ADDITIONAL
TIMING TO ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...AND THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION INTO
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN A FEW HOURS NOW BUT WITH MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY STILL
INDICATING SUBTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER THE AREA...WILL
MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. POCKET OF DRIER AIR WITHIN A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL
ENABLE A BREAK IN PRECIP COVERAGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIKELY WILL EVEN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BECOME
PREVALENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER OVER ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW IN TANDEM WITH THE
UPPER WAVE WILL PIVOT INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK
WITH CONVECTION SPREADING INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AFTER
09-10Z. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THAT EXPERIENCED
IN ARKANSAS SO FAR THIS EVENING...RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING AIRMASS
SHOULD BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED THUNDER.
DID SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF THESE STORMS INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY
BY A COUPLE HOURS BASED ON MOST CURRENT HI-RES GUIDANCE. PRECIP
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER DAYBREAK
MONDAY.
BUMPED LOW TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
DROP ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS AT MOST. ZONE AND
GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...MONDAY. WILL CARRY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PER
SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES. EXPECT QUIET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MORE POTENT SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN...AND
SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH A WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...AND AMPLE SHEAR PRESENT...SPC DAY 3 SLIGHT APPEARS
REASONABLE.
CONSENSUS TEMPS AGAIN APPEARED REASONABLE THROUGHOUT WITH SLIGHT
TWEAKS. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
LIKELY TO HIT THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SUN MAR 13 2016
MODELS DIG AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY ON AND THEN
MOVE IT INTO OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
THUS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
LONG TERM.
CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT US. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH A
DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO OUR FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT THERE ARE BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR NOW AND WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS THIS
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON ANY TIMING IS LOW.
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH BY SUNDAY...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
THEN. OTHERWISE...STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL INITIALIZATION MOST
OTHER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER THROUGH 09Z...OTHERWISE...FLYING
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING BACK AND FOURTH...MAINLY BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR. LAMP MOS AND SREF SUGGEST MVFR OR VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS IFR
AT LAF...CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. THEN...SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HRRR SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS WILL REACH BMG AND HUF
AROUND 09Z...IND AROUND 10Z AND LAF 12Z. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT AFTER 21Z WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BECOME VFR.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO WEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
COULD SEE SOME THUNDER TODAY. HOWEVER...COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
115 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
AS ONE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH OUT OF THE
AREA...ANOTHER ONE WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF RAIN AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY STRONGER FLOW
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH 02Z TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE IS TO PRESENT SOME ADDITIONAL
TIMING TO ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...AND THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION INTO
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN A FEW HOURS NOW BUT WITH MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY STILL
INDICATING SUBTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER THE AREA...WILL
MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. POCKET OF DRIER AIR WITHIN A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL
ENABLE A BREAK IN PRECIP COVERAGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIKELY WILL EVEN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BECOME
PREVALENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER OVER ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW IN TANDEM WITH THE
UPPER WAVE WILL PIVOT INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK
WITH CONVECTION SPREADING INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AFTER
09-10Z. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THAT EXPERIENCED
IN ARKANSAS SO FAR THIS EVENING...RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING AIRMASS
SHOULD BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED THUNDER.
DID SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF THESE STORMS INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY
BY A COUPLE HOURS BASED ON MOST CURRENT HI-RES GUIDANCE. PRECIP
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER DAYBREAK
MONDAY.
BUMPED LOW TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
DROP ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS AT MOST. ZONE AND
GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...MONDAY. WILL CARRY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PER
SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES. EXPECT QUIET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MORE POTENT SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN...AND
SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH A WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...AND AMPLE SHEAR PRESENT...SPC DAY 3 SLIGHT APPEARS
REASONABLE.
CONSENSUS TEMPS AGAIN APPEARED REASONABLE THROUGHOUT WITH SLIGHT
TWEAKS. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
LIKELY TO HIT THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SUN MAR 13 2016
MODELS DIG AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY ON AND THEN
MOVE IT INTO OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
THUS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
LONG TERM.
CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT US. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH A
DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO OUR FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT THERE ARE BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR NOW AND WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS THIS
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON ANY TIMING IS LOW.
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH BY SUNDAY...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
THEN. OTHERWISE...STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL INITIALIZATION MOST
OTHER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER THROUGH 09Z...OTHERWISE...FLYING
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING BACK AND FOURTH...MAINLY BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR. LAMP MOS AND SREF SUGGEST MVFR OR VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS IFR
AT LAF...CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. THEN...SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HRRR SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS WILL REACH BMG AND HUF
AROUND 09Z...IND AROUND 10Z AND LAF 12Z. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT AFTER 21Z WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BECOME VFR.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO WEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
346 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
18Z SFC DATA HAS AN IMPLIED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KSUX TO NEAR
KEVV. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND DOWN TO THE GULF.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
SOME HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
HAS ALLOWED SOME BRIEF PEEKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS
SHOW THE SHOWERS NEAR KCID ARE RAPIDLY FALLING APART. THUS DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET.
AFTER SUNSET...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING.
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DUBUQUE TO GRINNELL.
INTERNALLY...MOST OF THE MODELS AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP ARE
SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BY MIDNIGHT...THE MODELS LOOSELY AGREE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE MO/KS BORDER UP INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL THEN MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
AND ARRIVE IN EASTERN IOWA PRIOR TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THIS COMPLEX
WILL STRATIFY OUT DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA BUT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT. THE
POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL THAT
COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.
THE DECAYING COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
THAT WILL PRODUCE BOUNDARIES FOR NEW CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.
DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT AND BOUNDARIES FROM THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL ALLOW NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP.
SEVERAL FACTORS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS ON
TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW EACH COMES TOGETHER. TWO IMPORTANT
FACTORS WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING.
THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...12Z RUN MODELS SHEAR OUT VIGOROUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE ACRS WI INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS THIS
PERIOD...BUT IN VARYING STRENGTHS. WILL WALK OUT LINGERING STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS OUT OF NORTHWESTERN IL BY
01Z...IF THEY DON/T EXIT EARLIER THAN THAT. THEN THE MODELS
DIVERGE...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST DYNAMICAL IN
HANDLING THE LOW WITH THE SFC FEATURE DEEPENING TO UNDER 990 MB ACTS
CENTRAL WI BY WED MORNING. THE EURO PRODUCES STRONG WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND THUS IS ADVERTISING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TUE EVENING IN MUCH OF EST CENTRAL IA NORTH OF
I80 AND WEST OF THE MS RVR. IT THEN CONTINUES WRAP-AROUND ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 WITH ANOTHER 0.30-0.60+ OF AN INCH OF QPF NORTH OF THE
HWY 30 CORRIDOR FROM 06Z-12Z WED...WITH PARAMETERS COOLING TO NEAR
RAIN-SNOW MIX OR ALL WET SNOW ALONG HWY 20 LATE TUE NIGHT. MOST OF
THE OTHER 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT NEARLY SO BULLISH AND AFTER SOME
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TUE EVENING BEHIND THE MAIN EXITING CONVECTIVE
LINE...THEY TRANSITION TO MAINLY DRY AFTER 06Z WED OR CLIPPING
NORTHWESTERN IL WITH SHOWERS/RAIN THROUGH 09Z WED BEFORE SWEEPING
OFF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL TAKE A BLEND THAT PRODUCES
A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF WRAP AROUND RAIN
ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE DVN CWA BY 12Z WED
MORNING.
WED THE CWA TO CONTINUE TO BE IN TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT OFF DEEP
CYCLONE IN EASTERN WI...WEST WINDS MAY GUST WELL OVER 30 MPH AND NOT
BE THAT FAR OFF ADVISORY LEVELS FOR SUSTAINED SPEEDS ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I80. WITH PLENTY OF DRIED VEGETATION AND AFTERNOON RH/S
DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...A GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER MAY EVOLVE BY WED AFTERNOON. A LOW CHC FOR MORE WRAP AROUND
LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 20 ON WED. IF WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MAINTAINS IN THE NORTHERN CWA INTO WED NIGHT-EARLY THU MORNING BY
BLOCKED GRT LKS CYCLONE...SOME PRECIP TYPE ISSUES MAY HAVE TO BE
DEALT WITH. BUT MORE MODELS ARE DRY WED NIGHT THAN ARE ADVERTISING
THIS POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... BLOCKED GRT LKS CYCLONE WILL LOOK TO FILL
SOME...THEN DRIFT BACK SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER TROF DOWN THE WESTERN
GRT LKS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. IF THIS PANS OUT...THEN POSSIBLY
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FEATURE BY THU
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80. EXPECT IF THIS
OCCURS... ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO DIURNALLY WANE THU NIGHT. BUT IF
THEY PERSIST LONGER INTO THE NIGHT THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...PRECIP
TYPE ISSUES WILL POPS UP AGAIN WITH RAIN-SNOW MIX OR EVEN ALL WET
SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80. THE SOUTHWARD DRIFTING TROF
WILL KEEP THE CHC FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS GOING FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NEW 12Z ECMWF AS BACKED OFF OF THIS
POTENTIAL AND IS MAINLY DRY INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. AGAIN ANY
LINGERING NOCTURNAL PRECIP MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO GO INTO A WINTRY MIX
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80. HIGHS THU IN THE MID 40S NORTH...TO THE MID
50S IN THE SOUTH...THU NIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY CLOUD DECREASE. FRI HIGHS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF
DEVELOPING COLD CORE UPPER TROF THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
HELD WELL DOWN IN THE 40S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SCTRD SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE UNDER THIS FEATURE ON SAT AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD VERTICAL PROFILES JUST ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS IS DRY ON SUNDAY WITH
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
SOME COLD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RVR. WILL KEEP A DRY
FCST FOR NOW THROUGH MON. LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SHOW A WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE LEADING EDGE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
LEAD CLIPPER WITH A PRECIP WING EITHER MON OR EARLY TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR WERE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z/15. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE
NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT LOW CLOUDS VERY WELL. AFT 00Z/15 A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. AFT 06Z/15 ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1235 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES AND MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER.
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY
REACH DUBUQUE BUT PERSIST ACROSS BUCHANAN COUNTY. RADAR TRENDS ARE
STARTING TO SUGGEST A SLOW DISSIPATION IN THAT AREA AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR AN UPDATE THERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE. BASED ON AVAILABLE
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE LINGERING LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE HANDLED
WITH AN SPS OVER THE NEXT 90 MINUTES.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST MAINLY IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
IMMEDIATE TRENDS BASED ON RADAR AND THE RAP SUGGEST SHOWERS
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS INDICATE VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY SINCE SUNRISE ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
AND INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THUS THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. TRENDS
OVER THE PAST HOUR SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
MORNING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS PERSISTED FROM MONMOUTH...TO
GENESEO AND PRINCETON. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
LOW 40S IN THE FREEPORT AREA...TO THE LOW 50S AROUND KEOKUK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE DENSE FOG
THIS MORNING...AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TONIGHT.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AM THINKING THIS WILL COVER THE AREAS WITH
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR HENRY/BUREAU/PUTNAM COUNTIES ONCE THE RAIN DIMINISHES.
OTHER THAN THE LINGERING RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
MORNING...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST TODAY...HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE...UPPER
50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY OTHERWISE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
TUESDAY...SPC CONTINUES WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND HAS EXPANDED IT A TAD TO THE WEST TO
INCLUDE THE QUAD CITIES AREA AND CLOSER TO DUBUQUE. ALL MODES OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE.
CURRENTLY WATER VAPOR MOVIE LOOPS INDICATED A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A POWERFUL 130 KNOT 300 HPA JET
STILL WEST OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT ENTERS NORTHERN CA...
INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL STILL BE DIGGING. SOME CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN NORTHERN CA AND IN IDAHO.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST OMINOUS WITH A DEEPER
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS WE GET UNDER THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO DEEPEN THIS
WILL HANG UP THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A DECENT
TRANSPORT OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE DVN CWA...AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT THE MS RIVER AND ON ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THE FRONT WILL BE
ARRIVING AT PEAK HEATING AND WITH A VERY COLD POCKET ALOFT THIS WILL
STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES CONSIDERABLY. MOST OF THE MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPES OF 2000 J/KG AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE
STRENGTHENING TO 50-60 KNOTS. THIS WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL
TORNADOES. LOOKING AT HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM IS THE ECMWF ALSO SEEMS
THE MOST PLAUSIBLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S FROM
ABOUT THE MS RIVER ON EAST.
THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN ARE WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM AND MUCH FASTER WITH
THE COLD FRONT...SUGGESTING THE SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LESS OF A
THREAT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO OUR FAR EASTERN CWA AND
QUICKLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PATTERN CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID
MARCH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE DETAILS REGARDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP WITH
TIMING/STRENGTH AND PRECIPITATION TYPES.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR WERE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z/15. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE
NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT LOW CLOUDS VERY WELL. AFT 00Z/15 A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. AFT 06Z/15 ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1017 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE. BASED ON AVAILABLE
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE LINGERING LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE HANDLED
WITH AN SPS OVER THE NEXT 90 MINUTES.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST MAINLY IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
IMMEDIATE TRENDS BASED ON RADAR AND THE RAP SUGGEST SHOWERS
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS INDICATE VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY SINCE SUNRISE ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
AND INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THUS THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. TRENDS
OVER THE PAST HOUR SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
MORNING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS PERSISTED FROM MONMOUTH...TO
GENESEO AND PRINCETON. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
LOW 40S IN THE FREEPORT AREA...TO THE LOW 50S AROUND KEOKUK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE DENSE FOG
THIS MORNING...AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TONIGHT.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AM THINKING THIS WILL COVER THE AREAS WITH
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR HENRY/BUREAU/PUTNAM COUNTIES ONCE THE RAIN DIMINISHES.
OTHER THAN THE LINGERING RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
MORNING...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST TODAY...HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE...UPPER
50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY OTHERWISE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
TUESDAY...SPC CONTINUES WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND HAS EXPANDED IT A TAD TO THE WEST TO
INCLUDE THE QUAD CITIES AREA AND CLOSER TO DUBUQUE. ALL MODES OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE.
CURRENTLY WATER VAPOR MOVIE LOOPS INDICATED A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A POWERFUL 130 KNOT 300 HPA JET
STILL WEST OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT ENTERS NORTHERN CA...
INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL STILL BE DIGGING. SOME CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN NORTHERN CA AND IN IDAHO.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST OMINOUS WITH A DEEPER
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS WE GET UNDER THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO DEEPEN THIS
WILL HANG UP THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A DECENT
TRANSPORT OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE DVN CWA...AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT THE MS RIVER AND ON ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THE FRONT WILL BE
ARRIVING AT PEAK HEATING AND WITH A VERY COLD POCKET ALOFT THIS WILL
STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES CONSIDERABLY. MOST OF THE MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPES OF 2000 J/KG AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE
STRENGTHENING TO 50-60 KNOTS. THIS WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL
TORNADOES. LOOKING AT HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM IS THE ECMWF ALSO SEEMS
THE MOST PLAUSIBLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S FROM
ABOUT THE MS RIVER ON EAST.
THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN ARE WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM AND MUCH FASTER WITH
THE COLD FRONT...SUGGESTING THE SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LESS OF A
THREAT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO OUR FAR EASTERN CWA AND
QUICKLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PATTERN CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID
MARCH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE DETAILS REGARDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP WITH
TIMING/STRENGTH AND PRECIPITATION TYPES.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BUT KMLI. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
REDEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING...MAINLY AT KCID/KDBQ.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
136 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
UPDATED THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH 18Z TODAY PER THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBS AND NAM12 AND HRRR MODEL DATA. IT APPEARS THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA UNTIL BETWEEN
12 AND 13Z THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO
THE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT SHORTLY WITH THESE MINOR TWEAKS
INTRODUCED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE SKY COVER...POPS...AND WX
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR INDICATES THAT
SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GRIDS. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS WITH THE SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT
STILL ON TRACK. HAVE SENT THESE UPDATES TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVER
ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES AND HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY
WITH A WARM FRONT NOW BACK NORTH OF THE STATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CROSSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT AND A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING SUNSET AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO DEVELOP.
CURRENTLY READINGS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POPS AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS TO
PUT IN THE SMALL TEMP SPLIT TONIGHT. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD
GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
THIS AFTERNOON WE CONTINUE TO TRACK SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS. THAT SAID MRMS DATA DOES HAVE SOME DBZ IN THE
MINUS 20 RANGE...AND THE PROB LIGHTNING PRODUCT HAS HAD SOME
HINTS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS BETTER COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MIDDLE TN
AND CENTRAL/WEST KY AT 3 PM AND WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS LOOK TO DIE OUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
EVENING BASED ON MOST OF THE CAM DATA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THAT OVERALL BETTER LIFT WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KY
CLOSER TO THE BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVE
WAVE MOVES NORTH...HOWEVER ALL EYES TURN TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LULL SHOULD OCCUR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE NEXT WEATHER MAKER MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THAT SAID MONDAY COULD BE INTERESTING GIVEN THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE DAY BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH IT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES IN THE 6 TO 6.5
C/KM RANGE...WHILE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE IN THE 8 C/KM PLUS RANGE.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT SHEAR AND A LOW FREEZING LEVEL OF 8
K/FT TO BRING AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SETUP THE RISK FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL BASED ON THE CAM
DATA WOULD SUGGEST BEST TIMING FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND
18Z...WHICH WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE BETTER HEATING. THIS WILL
QUICKLY DIE OFF LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE
HEATING AND BETTER DYNAMICS.
OVERALL WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER TO THAT OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE WRAPPED UP TUESDAY MORNING AS FLAT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WORKS IN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING. THIS WILL SPIKE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S BEFORE
A GRADUAL COOL DOWN ENSUES FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
COMMENCEMENT OF THIS WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF
A STACKED LOW STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. LEAD IMPULSE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE
BLUEGRASS REGION. NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERLY
EXTENT OF THE LIFT AS WELL AS A SHORT TIME TABLE FOR MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE EASTERN REACHES OF THE COMMONWEALTH. FOLLOWING LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY/S SYSTEM...BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO ABOVE MENTIONED APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL PRECLUDE
MUCH IF ANY TIME FOR ADEQUATE GULF MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. NONETHELESS...40-50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
WEDNESDAY INTO THE 50S/LOWER 60S BY THE WEEKEND AS REINFORCEMENTS OF
CYCLONIC FLOW PROPAGATE SOUTH AND EAST...STEMMING FROM THE LINGERING
MIDWEEK SYSTEM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE OFFING GIVEN THIS FORCING UPSTREAM. RAIN WILL BY NO MEANS BE
CONTINUOUS AS CLEARING SKIES WILL PERIODICALLY TAKE PLACE IN BETWEEN
ROUNDS OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. STILL SEVERAL DETAILS
TO BE IRONED OUT REGARDING EXACTLY HOW THIS DISTURBANCE PLAYS
OUT...BUT A COLD FRONT DOES CURRENTLY LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER STRONGER ONE LATER
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY ISSUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FOG...WHICH COULD
BE LOCALLY DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR
BODIES OF WATER. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS
THROUGH OUT THE DAY TODAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA AROUND 14Z THIS MORNING. SME AND LOZ WOULD SEE THE
FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
JKL WOULD SEE RAIN AND STORMS BY 16Z AS WOULD SJS AND SYM. THE
STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED THIS MORNING...AND WOULD BECOME
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A MARGINAL HAIL AND OR WIND THREAT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
747 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...00Z LCH SOUNDING MAINTAINING A SHARP THERMAL
INVERSION FROM 2-4K FT AS SOUTHWEST LLJ AROUND 35 KNOTS REMAINS
IN PLACE. RESULT HAS BEEN A VERY HAZY DAY DESPITE RATHER STRONG
SURFACE WINDS. WILL SEE INVERSION DISSIPATING AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES AS LLJ ADVANCES EAST WITH ASSOCIATED TROF MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. SURFACE FRONT PROGGED BY HRRR TO REACH THE LAKES AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...ACADIANA TOWARD SUNRISE. PRECIPITABLE WATER PER
LATEST LCH SOUNDING SHOWING A MEAGER 0.76 INCHES. FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. DO NOT SEE ANY ISSUES WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING (IF THEY
HAVENT ALREADY) OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ESPECIALLY NEARER THE
COAST. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIKELY
DROPPING BELOW 1K FEET BY 09Z OR SO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE ALSO BE
REDUCED TO POTENTIALLY LIFR LEVELS GIVEN LOWER WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT
COMPARED TO LAST AS WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 3K FEET (OR SCATTER OUT) BY NOONTIME. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM A NERLY DIRECTION BACK TO AN ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT CREEPS BACK NWD.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/
.MAJOR FLOODING ON THE SABINE...
.FLOODING ON THE CALCASIEU...NECHES AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS
CONTINUES...
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON FLOODING PLEASE CHECK OUR WEBSITE
AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH.
A WARM START TO THE DAY SAW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. UNDER
PTCLDY TO MSTLY CLDY SKIES TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 80
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND MID 80S CNTRL LA TODAY.
A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH DFW AND LOOKS TO MAKE THE COAST
OF SW LOUISIANA AROUND SUNRISE... MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BEFORE FALLING APART. WINDS OVER THE THE LAND WILL SHIFT AROUND
TO THE EAST WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS LATEST BOUNDARY WILL WASHOUT QUICKLY WITH WINDS
KICKING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNSET.
CHANCES FOR RAINS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AS THE MAIN SURGE
OF COLDER DRIER AIR MAKES ITS APPEARANCE. RAINFALL TOTALS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 58 80 56 76 / 10 20 30 40
LCH 64 80 64 78 / 10 20 30 40
LFT 67 80 66 77 / 10 20 30 50
BPT 65 81 65 78 / 10 20 20 40
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
907 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A DEVELOPING DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE LOWER PENINSULA MAY
CONTAIN HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TONIGHT. THE LOW ITSELF WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE. COOLER WEATHER WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH HIGHS MIGRATING BACK TO THE 40S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WATCHING CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER ILLINOIS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
STRONG SHEAR OVER IL/IN BUT NOTHING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...YET.
THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE A BIT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES STILL
LOOKING FOR STORMS TO MOVE TOWARD THE CWA AFTER 11 PM WHICH IS NOT
THE BEST TIME TO SEE SVR STORMS. INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF I-94 AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAIL REMAINS THE BIGGEST THREAT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
POINT TOWARD A ROBUST INVERSION WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE WIND
THREAT.
ALSO LOOKING AT THE WIND THREAT WEDNESDAY. WIND CROSS SECTIONS
POINT TOWARD 50+ KNOTS AOB 1000 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. WE/LL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE 00Z DATA
AND EVALUATE WHETHER WE NEED TO BUMP THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT MAY REALIZE BETTER MIXING SUCH
AS THE SOUTHERN CWA. AS OF RIGHT NOW THOUGH...THE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
TWO ITEMS TO DEAL WITH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BEING THE
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AND THREAT FOR SEVERE TONIGHT. THE SECOND
BEING STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
REGARDING THE STORM AND SEVERE CHANCES FOR TONIGHT. CONSIDERABLE
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS ALLOWING DAY TIME
HEATING TO BOOST TEMPS A BIT. READINGS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE 60S OVER
FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MI TOWARDS AZO AND BEH. BEH HAS REACHED 64
DEGREES. OF MORE IMPORTANCE IS THE FACT THAT DEW POINTS HAVE SURGED
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVER A FAIRLY SIZABLE AREA OVER
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THIS WILL ACT TO INCREASE INSTABILITY TONIGHT
AS THIS MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE AS
THE WIND FIELDS INCREASE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE ALONG WITH MID
LEVEL COOLING FROM THE DYNAMIC 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TEND TO INCREASE
INSTABILITY. THE RUC HAS DEEP LAYER CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
1000 J/KG IN THE GRR FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST CAPE OVER THE
LARGEST AREA (MKG/BIV/GRR/AZO/BTL) OCCURS AROUND 2AM TO 3AM. BOTTOM
LINE...STILL EXPECTING BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SWEEP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE IS
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ARE MAXIMIZED. HAIL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH REMAINS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS A POTENTIAL THREAT
AS WELL.
REGARDING THE WIND TOMORROW...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A VERY DEEP LOW FOR ANY TIME OF YEAR
IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 980S TOMORROW MORNING. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SITUATED OVER ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. BEST ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT LOOKS TO BE WEST OF US THOUGH.
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS OF 45+ MPH LOOK LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR
ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (I96 AND I94 CORRIDORS)
WHERE WE MAY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE/MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON.
POWER OUTAGES ARE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW. THINKING THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE HIGHER RISK AREA MAY BE FOR BIV/GRR/LWA AND
AZO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF THE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...
THEN STAY THAT WAY FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WE MORE THAN LIKELY WILL SEE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS SORT OF
EVENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS EAST OF GREENLAND BY
THURSDAY AND THAT FORCES THE NORTHERN STREAM TO DIG WELL SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA... INSTEAD OF STAYING UP IN CENTRAL CANADA HAS
IT HAS BEEN DOING OVER THE PAST WEEK. THIS ALSO HELPS TO PUSH THE
CURRENT SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE
CURRENT ONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AND HEAD TO THE
EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA AROUND
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY FOR THIS SYSTEM
SO...THIS COULD BE ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM. THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY
HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO TURN THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY IN OUR AREA GETS SHEARED OUT BUT AS THIS HAPPENS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD SO WE GET A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE WE COULD SEE THE RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z AND
THEN PERSISTING ON AND OFF DURING THE NIGHT. I DID TREND THE IFR
TOWARD LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE
DRY...LEADING TO HIGHER CLOUD BASES. AS CONDITIONS SATURATE...THE
CEILINGS WILL LOWER. LOCAL VSBYS IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COULD
BRIEFLY GO UNDER 3 MILES WITH THE STORMS.
THE WIND WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL BE RISING AS THE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB...REACHING INTO THE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF
THE GROUND. AS A RESULT...ALL SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE
GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS. CLOUD BASES WILL RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
ISSUED A GALE WARNING EARLIER TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS IN WISCONSIN. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT AROUND 983MB/S WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE
FORCE ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY PEAKING IN 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. WAVES WILL
BUILD TOWARDS 10 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES LIKELY
NORTH OF MUSKEGON GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE LOW WILL FILL/WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE WINDS
AND WAVES GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
SOME POINTS ALONG THE GRAND RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE BANKFULL. THE GOING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES EXPECTED FROM THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. NO OTHER HEAVY
RAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK... SO THAT
WILL GIVE THE RIVERS SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
749 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A DEVELOPING DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE LOWER PENINSULA MAY
CONTAIN HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TONIGHT. THE LOW ITSELF WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE. COOLER WEATHER WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH HIGHS MIGRATING BACK TO THE 40S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
TWO ITEMS TO DEAL WITH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BEING THE
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AND THREAT FOR SEVERE TONIGHT. THE SECOND
BEING STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
REGARDING THE STORM AND SEVERE CHANCES FOR TONIGHT. CONSIDERABLE
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS ALLOWING DAY TIME
HEATING TO BOOST TEMPS A BIT. READINGS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE 60S OVER
FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MI TOWARDS AZO AND BEH. BEH HAS REACHED 64
DEGREES. OF MORE IMPORTANCE IS THE FACT THAT DEW POINTS HAVE SURGED
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVER A FAIRLY SIZABLE AREA OVER
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THIS WILL ACT TO INCREASE INSTABILITY TONIGHT
AS THIS MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE AS
THE WIND FIELDS INCREASE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE ALONG WITH MID
LEVEL COOLING FROM THE DYNAMIC 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TEND TO INCREASE
INSTABILITY. THE RUC HAS DEEP LAYER CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
1000 J/KG IN THE GRR FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST CAPE OVER THE
LARGEST AREA (MKG/BIV/GRR/AZO/BTL) OCCURS AROUND 2AM TO 3AM. BOTTOM
LINE...STILL EXPECTING BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SWEEP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE IS
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ARE MAXIMIZED. HAIL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH REMAINS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS A POTENTIAL THREAT
AS WELL.
REGARDING THE WIND TOMORROW...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A VERY DEEP LOW FOR ANY TIME OF YEAR
IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 980S TOMORROW MORNING. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SITUATED OVER ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. BEST ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT LOOKS TO BE WEST OF US THOUGH.
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS OF 45+ MPH LOOK LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR
ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (I96 AND I94 CORRIDORS)
WHERE WE MAY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE/MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON.
POWER OUTAGES ARE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW. THINKING THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE HIGHER RISK AREA MAY BE FOR BIV/GRR/LWA AND
AZO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF THE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...
THEN STAY THAT WAY FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WE MORE THAN LIKELY WILL SEE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS SORT OF
EVENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS EAST OF GREENLAND BY
THURSDAY AND THAT FORCES THE NORTHERN STREAM TO DIG WELL SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA... INSTEAD OF STAYING UP IN CENTRAL CANADA HAS
IT HAS BEEN DOING OVER THE PAST WEEK. THIS ALSO HELPS TO PUSH THE
CURRENT SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE
CURRENT ONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AND HEAD TO THE
EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA AROUND
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY FOR THIS SYSTEM
SO...THIS COULD BE ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM. THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY
HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO TURN THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY IN OUR AREA GETS SHEARED OUT BUT AS THIS HAPPENS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD SO WE GET A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE WE COULD SEE THE RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z AND
THEN PERSISTING ON AND OFF DURING THE NIGHT. I DID TREND THE IFR
TOWARD LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE
DRY...LEADING TO HIGHER CLOUD BASES. AS CONDITIONS SATURATE...THE
CEILINGS WILL LOWER. LOCAL VSBYS IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COULD
BRIEFLY GO UNDER 3 MILES WITH THE STORMS.
THE WIND WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL BE RISING AS THE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB...REACHING INTO THE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF
THE GROUND. AS A RESULT...ALL SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE
GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS. CLOUD BASES WILL RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
ISSUED A GALE WARNING EARLIER TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS IN WISCONSIN. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT AROUND 983MB/S WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE
FORCE ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY PEAKING IN 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. WAVES WILL
BUILD TOWARDS 10 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES LIKELY
NORTH OF MUSKEGON GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE LOW WILL FILL/WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE WINDS
AND WAVES GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
SOME POINTS ALONG THE GRAND RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE BANKFULL. THE GOING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES EXPECTED FROM THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. NO OTHER HEAVY
RAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK... SO THAT
WILL GIVE THE RIVERS SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
733 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
ALBERTA/SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS WITH WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NW ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SE
FLOW WAS INCREASING OVER NRN WI BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
ERN LAKES AND A TROUGH FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH MN TO LOW PRES OVER
MO. A LINE SHRA EXTENDING FROM NW WI INTO SE WI/NE IL WERE SUPPORTED
BY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 290-
295K SFCS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH HAS RESULTED
IN CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR EAST
WHERE DRY EASTERLY FLOW AND PROXIMITY TO RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FROM MID 50S FAR WEST AND EAST
TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MI SHORE IN SE FLOW.
TONIGHT...AS THE NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LIFTS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
TO NEAR 987 MB OVER SRN WI BY 12Z WED. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN BAND MOVING THROUGH WI SO
HAVE BACKED OFF ON INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL OVER WEST
UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVER THE CENTRAL COUNTIES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN COMBINATION OF INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE IN COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO OVERCOME DRY EASTERLY FLOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WITH THE WAA SURGE...THE PCPN BAND
COMING IN INITIALLY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT. ERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME GUSTY LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
NEAR LAKE MI WHERE GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ALSO KEPT IN
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER OVER SCNTRL UPPER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING AS MODELS STILL SHOW NEG SHOWALTER INDICES AND MUCAPE OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG ON NOSE OF 85H THETA-E AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE FALLING HEAVILY IN THE MORNING SO PRECIP
LOADING COULD ALSO AID IN BRINGING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS TO SFC. AT THE
LEAST...DUE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO NORTH OF DEEPENING
SFC LOW OVER WI DOWN TO LESS THAN 990MB BY 12Z WED...AREAS FAVORED
BY EAST WINDS SUCH AS LK MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY AND ACROSS
KEWEENAW COULD SEE EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH MUCH OF THE DAY.
AS DRY SLOT WITH SYSTEM AND Q-VECT DIV MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
AREAS EXPECT PRECIP TO DIMINISH THERE. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
WESTERN CWA WHERE DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE EXPANDS ON NW SIDE
OF DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND STRONG SFC-H85 LOW MEANDERING OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MI AND DEFORMATION FORCING ALLOWS BAND TO SET UP OVER
THE WEST.
THE OTHER TRICKY PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE PTYPE AND POSSIBILITY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON WED. MODEL SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY NAM...SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMIC COOLING WITH HEAVIER PCPN BAND MOVING THROUGH
WED MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHORTLY AFT 12Z. IF THIS
HAPPENS AS QUICKLY AS NAM INDICATES THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL OF
SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW WED MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI AS THIS HEAVIER BAND MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. RIGHT NOW...SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THERMAL FIELDS/PROFILES HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY PUT IN A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW OVER MAINLY THE KEWEENAW AND WRN MQT/ERN BARAGA COUNTIES WED
MORNING BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF SOME WED AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE FAR WEST LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT WHEN DEFORMATION BAND W/SYSTEM SETS UP IN STRONGLY
CYCLONIC NNE FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 549 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS LOOKS QUITE CHANGEABLE WITH FLOW
TRANSITIONING BETWEEN PERIODS OF MORE PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW AND
PERIODS OF MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PATTERN
WILL BECOME BLOCKY OVER NAMERICA WITH DYNAMIC SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BENEATH A DEVELOPING CLOSED HIGH TO THE N. THIS
BLOCKY PATTERN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE W
COAST FORCES THE CLOSED HIGH TO DISSIPATE UNDER DEVELOPING ERN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. WRN RIDGE THEN WEAKENS WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED
SPLIT FLOW REDEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THE MDT/HVY PCPN OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...A DRIER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME -SHSN AND EVEN LES ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE AND COLDER AIR DIVING SE INTO THE ERN TROF LATER THIS
WEEKEND. FARTHER OUT...NAEFS 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES BLO NORMAL
TEMPS BECOMING FAVORED W-E ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL CANADA WHILE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS BECOME FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THIS SUGGESTS
A POTENTIAL ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS SHORTWAVES TRACK ALONG A
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. SO...THE UPPER
LAKES MAY BE AFFECTED BY BOUTS OF PCPN EVERY 2-3 DAYS...BEGINNING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THE MONTH.
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME SNOW EVENTS TO OCCUR.
BEGINNING WED NIGHT/THU...MIDLEVEL LOW AND SFC LOW CENTERED VCNTY OF
SCNTRL UPPER MI WED EVENING WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT
BEFORE QUICKLY UNRAVELING AND DRIFTING S AND E ON THU. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FCST AREA.
TO THE N AND W OF THE LOW...UPSLOPE NE TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
ENHANCE PCPN...ESPECIALLY SO OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED. THE FAR W IS ALSO CENTERED
UNDER AN AREA OF LINGERING DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS...AND
THAT FORCING IS QUITE STRONG THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL TEMPS
AREN`T QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT IT WOULDN`T TAKE
MUCH COOLING TO RESULT IN CONSIDERABLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS INCLUDING THE 09Z
SREF...THE NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN ARE ON THE HIGHER END OF THE QPF
SPECTRUM...SHOWING AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH WED NIGHT OVER FAR WRN UPPER
MI. USED A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 1/3RD TO
2/3RDS OF AN INCH. WITH SNOW RATIOS PROBABLY NOT HIGHER THAN AROUND
10 TO 1...SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3-6 INCHES WED NIGHT
OVER GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES AND 2-4 INTO HOUGHTON COUNTY. ADVY
HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THOSE 3 COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH TO
SUBADVY LEVELS IN THE BORDERING COUNTIES...WITH EVEN LIGHTER AMOUNTS
DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FARTHER E.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH THU AS ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND
DRIFTS AND E. MIGHT SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE W IN THE MORNING.
PATCHY -SN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THU NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ TO DEVELOP IN THE NNE WIND UPSLOPE
AREAS AS MOISTURE DEPTH SHRINKS TO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE TEMPS IN THE
MOIST LAYER ARE AROUND -10C. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...KEPT MENTION OUT
OF FCST FOR NOW.
CLOSED MID LEVEL HIGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER MANITOBA THU WEAKENS AND
DRIFTS SE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI/SAT...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FRI/FRI NIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH PRES
OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BEGAN TO TREND MIN TEMPS DOWN A BIT...
TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS.
SHORTWAVE DROPS SE THRU THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT
TIMING/TRACK OF SHORTWAVE IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON WITH THE GFS MORE
AMPLIFIED/FARTHER S WITH SHORTWAVE TRACK THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...
RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE OF -SHSN SUN ACROSS THE AREA AS DAYTIME
HEATING/MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME TYPE OF -SHSN REGIME. FOR NOW...LEANED FCST AWAY FROM THE
GFS. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -15C OR SO BEHIND WAVE...EXPECT
SOME LIGHT LES TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SUN INTO MON.
THE FIRST IN WHAT COULD BE A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS MAY ARRIVE IN THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE TUE OR
WED. WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS
BASED ON RECENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS...ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED
ON TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
FOR TNGT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD AND SAW TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR THIS EVNG AND THEN IFR OVERNGT AS PCPN/DEEPER MSTR AS WELL AS
STRONGER E WINDS OVERSPREAD THE UPR GREAT LKS AHEAD OF DEEPENING LO
PRES TO THE SW. PERSISTENT/INCRSG UPSLOPE E WINDS AT CMX WL MAINTAIN
FOG AND LIFR/VLIFR WX AT THAT LOCATION. THERE MAY BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AT CMX LATE. THEN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE ON WED
WITH CYC E-NE FLOW/RA MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SN ON NW FLANK OF
LO PRES MOVING INTO SCENTRAL UPR MI LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN STRONG EAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON WHERE E-NE GALES OF
35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND MOVES E AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 5
PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-003-009-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ265-
266.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT /11
AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
122 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH INTO THE WRN CONUS
AND A RIDGE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO HUDSON BAY RESULTING IN SW FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. 700-500 MB FGEN/DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH NRN LOWER MI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTO NW WI HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH NW TO
NEAR IWD.
TODAY...EXPECT THE RAIN OVER THE EAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING AS THE NRN LOWER MI SHRTWV LIFTS THROUGH NRN
LAKE HURON. ANY RAIN OVER THE WEST SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE AS WEAK
MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED INSOLATION IN THE MILD AIRMASS...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REBOUND
INTO MID TO UPPER 40S OVER EAST HALF TO THE MID 50S OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST.
TONIGHT...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BUT REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. WITH WEAK ADVECTION AND LINGERING
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...FROM THE LOW 30S EAST TO AROUND 40 OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
...RAIN AMOUNTS AND/OR SNOW AMOUNTS TUE NIGHT INTO WED IS MAIN
CONCERN...
STRONG JET CORE SURGING ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NEV HELPS DIG LARGE
TROUGH ALOFT WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUE AFTN. AT
THE SAME TIME...TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FRONT PORTION OF
THE TROUGH MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH TWO SHORTWAVES...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE AND TROUGH ENDS UP MORE COMPLEX. MAIN SFC LOW TRACKS OVER
NORTHERN MN FIRST PART OF TUE...BUT BY TUE AFTN AND TUE EVENING FOCUS
SHIFTS TO WI AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY TRACKS FM IOWA TO
LOWER MICHIGAN. MAY SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PUSH
SOME SHOWERS OVER WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN TUE...BUT MAIN RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE ON TUE NIGHT. LIFT FM PVA/STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE FM H85 LOW TIED INTO THETA-E
RIDGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORTS SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT LIFTING STEADILY NORTHWARD ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN. THOUGH PWATS ARE OVER 0.75 INCHES WHICH IS PUSHING 250-275
PCT OF NORMAL...THINK THE NAM IS ON THE WETTER SIDE OF MODELS
SHOWING QPF OVER 2 INCHES INTO WED OVER THE KEWEENAW. 1+ INCH
AMOUNTS SEEM LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN CWA CLOSER TO INFLUENCE
OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK DIVERGENCE.
WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN AND TEMPS STAYING ABOVE FREEZING EARLY THIS
WEEK...LIKELY WILL SEE SOME RESPONSE IN RIVERS DUE TO THE RAIN/SNOW
MELT. COOLER TEMPS SHOULD SLOW ANY RESPONSE MID-LATE WEEK. RECENT
REPORTS AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS OF SNOW DEPTH/SWE INDICATE SNOW DEPTHS
AROUND 20 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON KEWEENAW SOUTH OF HOUGHTON
AND ACROSS THE MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES. SWE IN THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY 4-6 INCHES. DO HAVE SOME
SMALLER/QUICKER RESPONDING BASINS IN THESE AREAS...INCLUDING THE
BLACK RIVER AND TRAP ROCK RIVER. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER RAIN
TUE NIGHT AND THE SNOW MELT...WILL HIGHLIGHT RISES IN RIVERS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
OVERALL THE GENERAL THEME OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THOUGH
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING REMAIN WITH BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED /ECMWF REMAINS ON THE SLOWER END OF MODELS/.
ADDED MENTION OF TSRA SCNTRL INTO EAST CWA TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS THAT AREA IS ON NORTH EDGE OF RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ALSO WITHIN STRONGEST H925-H85
THETA-E ADVECTION. SI/S ALSO FALL TOWARD ZERO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO BE TRYING TO ADVECT IN REMNANTS OF CLUSTERS OF TSRA THAT SHOULD
FORM UPSTREAM OVER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLIER IN THE DAY
ON TUE. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK SHOWS GENERAL TSRA OVER SCNTRL SO IT
MATCHES THAT AS WELL. ALSO PUT FOG INTO FORECAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. RAIN OVER THE MELTING SNOW SHOULD SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY
DURING ANY LONGER LULLS IN THE SHRA.
PTYPE STILL A BIGGER CONCERN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST. NAM APPEARS TOO COLD WITH BLYR TEMPS AND ITS SWITCH OVER
TO SNOW FOR KEWEENAW ON TUE NIGHT. WITH SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIP AND EAST WINDS BRINGING IN WARMER AIR SFC-H85...FOLLOWED MORE
MODERATE GFS IDEA WHICH SHOWS SUB 1KFT LAYER STAYING WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN UNTIL LATER WED MORNING INTO WED AFTN AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD SWITCH RAIN TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN
ALSO SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL CWA TO THE
WEST OF MARQUETTE WED AFTN. DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AS SFC LOW MOVES
EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN WED EVENING...NE COOL/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. PRETTY IKELY THAT NW
AND NCNTRL CWA WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW WED/WED NIGHT AND INTO THU
BEFORE THE SYSTEM DIMINISHES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO BUILDS
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL WINDS STAY N/NE BUT WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND H9-H85 TEMPS ONLY DOWN TO -7C TO -9C...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. COULD SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORK
THOUGH IN AN OVERALL TROUGHING ALOFT PATTERN SO THAT COULD BRING
CHANCE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON THU OVER THE WEST. STILL LOOKS LIKE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW NORTH OF HOUGHTON AND HANCOCK COULD END
UP WITH AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SLUSHY SNOW WED INTO WED NIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH SETTLING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK
ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST INTO FRI SO THAT WILL KEEP NORTHERN UPR
MICHIGAN COOLER WITH NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THU INTO FRI THOUGH. HIGH CROSSES FRI NIGHT SO LOWERED MINS
TOWARD AT LEAST CLIMO /TEENS INLAND/. SMALL CHANCES FOR MAINLY SNOW
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE COOLER PATTERN HANGS ON. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF
AND GFS FLIPPED ON HOW COLD IT MAY GET EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ECMWF
NOW COLDER. EVENTUALLY HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. AS A RESULT
TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK SHOULD PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD AT KIWD AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
PRESENT. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR THERE LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...KCMX AND KSAW WILL STAY MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORNING THERE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY WHERE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER N CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
25 KNOTS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
744 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH INTO THE WRN CONUS
AND A RIDGE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO HUDSON BAY RESULTING IN SW FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. 700-500 MB FGEN/DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH NRN LOWER MI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTO NW WI HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH NW TO
NEAR IWD.
TODAY...EXPECT THE RAIN OVER THE EAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING AS THE NRN LOWER MI SHRTWV LIFTS THROUGH NRN
LAKE HURON. ANY RAIN OVER THE WEST SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE AS WEAK
MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED INSOLATION IN THE MILD AIRMASS...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REBOUND
INTO MID TO UPPER 40S OVER EAST HALF TO THE MID 50S OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST.
TONIGHT...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BUT REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. WITH WEAK ADVECTION AND LINGERING
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...FROM THE LOW 30S EAST TO AROUND 40 OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
...RAIN AMOUNTS AND/OR SNOW AMOUNTS TUE NIGHT INTO WED IS MAIN
CONCERN...
STRONG JET CORE SURGING ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NEV HELPS DIG LARGE
TROUGH ALOFT WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUE AFTN. AT
THE SAME TIME...TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FRONT PORTION OF
THE TROUGH MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH TWO SHORTWAVES...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE AND TROUGH ENDS UP MORE COMPLEX. MAIN SFC LOW TRACKS OVER
NORTHERN MN FIRST PART OF TUE...BUT BY TUE AFTN AND TUE EVENING FOCUS
SHIFTS TO WI AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY TRACKS FM IOWA TO
LOWER MICHIGAN. MAY SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PUSH
SOME SHOWERS OVER WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN TUE...BUT MAIN RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE ON TUE NIGHT. LIFT FM PVA/STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE FM H85 LOW TIED INTO THETA-E
RIDGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORTS SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT LIFTING STEADILY NORTHWARD ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN. THOUGH PWATS ARE OVER 0.75 INCHES WHICH IS PUSHING 250-275
PCT OF NORMAL...THINK THE NAM IS ON THE WETTER SIDE OF MODELS
SHOWING QPF OVER 2 INCHES INTO WED OVER THE KEWEENAW. 1+ INCH
AMOUNTS SEEM LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN CWA CLOSER TO INFLUENCE
OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK DIVERGENCE.
WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN AND TEMPS STAYING ABOVE FREEZING EARLY THIS
WEEK...LIKELY WILL SEE SOME RESPONSE IN RIVERS DUE TO THE RAIN/SNOW
MELT. COOLER TEMPS SHOULD SLOW ANY RESPONSE MID-LATE WEEK. RECENT
REPORTS AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS OF SNOW DEPTH/SWE INDICATE SNOW DEPTHS
AROUND 20 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON KEWEENAW SOUTH OF HOUGHTON
AND ACROSS THE MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES. SWE IN THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY 4-6 INCHES. DO HAVE SOME
SMALLER/QUICKER RESPONDING BASINS IN THESE AREAS...INCLUDING THE
BLACK RIVER AND TRAP ROCK RIVER. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER RAIN
TUE NIGHT AND THE SNOW MELT...WILL HIGHLIGHT RISES IN RIVERS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
OVERALL THE GENERAL THEME OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THOUGH
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING REMAIN WITH BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED /ECMWF REMAINS ON THE SLOWER END OF MODELS/.
ADDED MENTION OF TSRA SCNTRL INTO EAST CWA TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS THAT AREA IS ON NORTH EDGE OF RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ALSO WITHIN STRONGEST H925-H85
THETA-E ADVECTION. SI/S ALSO FALL TOWARD ZERO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO BE TRYING TO ADVECT IN REMNANTS OF CLUSTERS OF TSRA THAT SHOULD
FORM UPSTREAM OVER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLIER IN THE DAY
ON TUE. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK SHOWS GENERAL TSRA OVER SCNTRL SO IT
MATCHES THAT AS WELL. ALSO PUT FOG INTO FORECAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. RAIN OVER THE MELTING SNOW SHOULD SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY
DURING ANY LONGER LULLS IN THE SHRA.
PTYPE STILL A BIGGER CONCERN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST. NAM APPEARS TOO COLD WITH BLYR TEMPS AND ITS SWITCH OVER
TO SNOW FOR KEWEENAW ON TUE NIGHT. WITH SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIP AND EAST WINDS BRINGING IN WARMER AIR SFC-H85...FOLLOWED MORE
MODERATE GFS IDEA WHICH SHOWS SUB 1KFT LAYER STAYING WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN UNTIL LATER WED MORNING INTO WED AFTN AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD SWITCH RAIN TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN
ALSO SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL CWA TO THE
WEST OF MARQUETTE WED AFTN. DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AS SFC LOW MOVES
EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN WED EVENING...NE COOL/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. PRETTY IKELY THAT NW
AND NCNTRL CWA WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW WED/WED NIGHT AND INTO THU
BEFORE THE SYSTEM DIMINISHES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO BUILDS
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL WINDS STAY N/NE BUT WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND H9-H85 TEMPS ONLY DOWN TO -7C TO -9C...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. COULD SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORK
THOUGH IN AN OVERALL TROUGHING ALOFT PATTERN SO THAT COULD BRING
CHANCE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON THU OVER THE WEST. STILL LOOKS LIKE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW NORTH OF HOUGHTON AND HANCOCK COULD END
UP WITH AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SLUSHY SNOW WED INTO WED NIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH SETTLING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK
ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST INTO FRI SO THAT WILL KEEP NORTHERN UPR
MICHIGAN COOLER WITH NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THU INTO FRI THOUGH. HIGH CROSSES FRI NIGHT SO LOWERED MINS
TOWARD AT LEAST CLIMO /TEENS INLAND/. SMALL CHANCES FOR MAINLY SNOW
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE COOLER PATTERN HANGS ON. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF
AND GFS FLIPPED ON HOW COLD IT MAY GET EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ECMWF
NOW COLDER. EVENTUALLY HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. AS A RESULT
TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK SHOULD PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS AT
KIWD AND KCMX TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING. SINCE SAW WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SEE A LIGHT UPSLOPE SE FLOW...EXPECT FOG
WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EARLY TODAY. WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING
AND WEAK HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE AREA...CIGS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT SAW THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD OR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUE AT KSAW WITH
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SE FLOW DEVELOPING. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KCMX AND KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY WHERE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER N CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
25 KNOTS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
456 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH INTO THE WRN CONUS
AND A RIDGE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO HUDSON BAY RESULTING IN SW FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. 700-500 MB FGEN/DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH NRN LOWER MI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTO NW WI HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH NW TO
NEAR IWD.
TODAY...EXPECT THE RAIN OVER THE EAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING AS THE NRN LOWER MI SHRTWV LIFTS THROUGH NRN
LAKE HURON. ANY RAIN OVER THE WEST SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE AS WEAK
MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED INSOLATION IN THE MILD AIRMASS...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REBOUND
INTO MID TO UPPER 40S OVER EAST HALF TO THE MID 50S OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST.
TONIGHT...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BUT REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. WITH WEAK ADVECTION AND LINGERING
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...FROM THE LOW 30S EAST TO AROUND 40 OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
...RAIN AMOUNTS AND/OR SNOW AMOUNTS TUE NIGHT INTO WED IS MAIN
CONCERN...
STRONG JET CORE SURGING ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NEV HELPS DIG LARGE
TROUGH ALOFT WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUE AFTN. AT
THE SAME TIME...TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FRONT PORTION OF
THE TROUGH MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH TWO SHORTWAVES...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE AND TROUGH ENDS UP MORE COMPLEX. MAIN SFC LOW TRACKS OVER
NORTHERN MN FIRST PART OF TUE...BUT BY TUE AFTN AND TUE EVENING FOCUS
SHIFTS TO WI AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY TRACKS FM IOWA TO
LOWER MICHIGAN. MAY SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PUSH
SOME SHOWERS OVER WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN TUE...BUT MAIN RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE ON TUE NIGHT. LIFT FM PVA/STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE FM H85 LOW TIED INTO THETA-E
RIDGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORTS SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT LIFTING STEADILY NORTHWARD ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN. THOUGH PWATS ARE OVER 0.75 INCHES WHICH IS PUSHING 250-275
PCT OF NORMAL...THINK THE NAM IS ON THE WETTER SIDE OF MODELS
SHOWING QPF OVER 2 INCHES INTO WED OVER THE KEWEENAW. 1+ INCH
AMOUNTS SEEM LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN CWA CLOSER TO INFLUENCE
OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK DIVERGENCE.
WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN AND TEMPS STAYING ABOVE FREEZING EARLY THIS
WEEK...LIKELY WILL SEE SOME RESPONSE IN RIVERS DUE TO THE RAIN/SNOW
MELT. COOLER TEMPS SHOULD SLOW ANY RESPONSE MID-LATE WEEK. RECENT
REPORTS AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS OF SNOW DEPTH/SWE INDICATE SNOW DEPTHS
AROUND 20 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON KEWEENAW SOUTH OF HOUGHTON
AND ACROSS THE MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES. SWE IN THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY 4-6 INCHES. DO HAVE SOME
SMALLER/QUICKER RESPONDING BASINS IN THESE AREAS...INCLUDING THE
BLACK RIVER AND TRAP ROCK RIVER. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER RAIN
TUE NIGHT AND THE SNOW MELT...WILL HIGHLIGHT RISES IN RIVERS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
OVERALL THE GENERAL THEME OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THOUGH
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING REMAIN WITH BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED /ECMWF REMAINS ON THE SLOWER END OF MODELS/.
ADDED MENTION OF TSRA SCNTRL INTO EAST CWA TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS THAT AREA IS ON NORTH EDGE OF RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ALSO WITHIN STRONGEST H925-H85
THETA-E ADVECTION. SI/S ALSO FALL TOWARD ZERO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO BE TRYING TO ADVECT IN REMNANTS OF CLUSTERS OF TSRA THAT SHOULD
FORM UPSTREAM OVER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLIER IN THE DAY
ON TUE. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK SHOWS GENERAL TSRA OVER SCNTRL SO IT
MATCHES THAT AS WELL. ALSO PUT FOG INTO FORECAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. RAIN OVER THE MELTING SNOW SHOULD SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY
DURING ANY LONGER LULLS IN THE SHRA.
PTYPE STILL A BIGGER CONCERN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST. NAM APPEARS TOO COLD WITH BLYR TEMPS AND ITS SWITCH OVER
TO SNOW FOR KEWEENAW ON TUE NIGHT. WITH SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIP AND EAST WINDS BRINGING IN WARMER AIR SFC-H85...FOLLOWED MORE
MODERATE GFS IDEA WHICH SHOWS SUB 1KFT LAYER STAYING WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN UNTIL LATER WED MORNING INTO WED AFTN AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD SWITCH RAIN TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN
ALSO SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL CWA TO THE
WEST OF MARQUETTE WED AFTN. DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AS SFC LOW MOVES
EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN WED EVENING...NE COOL/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. PRETTY IKELY THAT NW
AND NCNTRL CWA WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW WED/WED NIGHT AND INTO THU
BEFORE THE SYSTEM DIMINISHES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO BUILDS
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL WINDS STAY N/NE BUT WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND H9-H85 TEMPS ONLY DOWN TO -7C TO -9C...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. COULD SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORK
THOUGH IN AN OVERALL TROUGHING ALOFT PATTERN SO THAT COULD BRING
CHANCE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON THU OVER THE WEST. STILL LOOKS LIKE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW NORTH OF HOUGHTON AND HANCOCK COULD END
UP WITH AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SLUSHY SNOW WED INTO WED NIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH SETTLING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK
ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST INTO FRI SO THAT WILL KEEP NORTHERN UPR
MICHIGAN COOLER WITH NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THU INTO FRI THOUGH. HIGH CROSSES FRI NIGHT SO LOWERED MINS
TOWARD AT LEAST CLIMO /TEENS INLAND/. SMALL CHANCES FOR MAINLY SNOW
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE COOLER PATTERN HANGS ON. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF
AND GFS FLIPPED ON HOW COLD IT MAY GET EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ECMWF
NOW COLDER. EVENTUALLY HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. AS A RESULT
TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK SHOULD PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
ALTHOUGH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WL IMPACT THE TAF
SITES THIS MRNG...GRADUAL INFLUX OF MORE LLVL MSTR WL CAUSE VFR
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS MRNG. SINCE SAW WL BE CLOSER
TO THE DEEPER MSTR AND SEE A LIGHT UPSLOPE SE FLOW... EXPECT SOME
IFR CIGS THERE. WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING ON MON AND WEAK HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE AREA...CIGS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE IN THE
DAY. LOWER CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OR
DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS ON TUE WITH AN INCRSGLY MOIST SE FLOW
DVLPG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY WHERE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER N CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
25 KNOTS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
107 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.AVIATION...
SCT SHRAS WILL BE REPLACED BY AREAS OF -DZ/BR AS MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT PIVOTS INTO AREA AND WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT AT LEAST IFR CIGS AND MOST LIKELY A PERIOD OF
LIFR TO VLIFR. LOWER VSBYS...OF 1SM OR LESS TO THE SSW OF THE
TERMINALS SHOULD ALSO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND
PERSIST THROUGH MORNING. WHILE CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING
AFTERNOON...AND LOWER VFR FNT/MBS...SKIES WILL REMAIN BKN/OVC
WITH ADDITIONAL VSBYS RESTRICTIONS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST AS
SECOND LOW PRESSURE BRUSHES THE AREA.
FOR DTW...LOW CIGS OF 500 FEET OR LESS LIKELY LOWER TO 200-300 FEET
WITH VSBYS ALSO DROPPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER
THE THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR BY MIDDAY
WITHIN SLIGHTLY DRIER SW FLOW IN WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
-SHRAS/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 00Z MONDAY EVENING AS A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH OHIO.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT.
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AOB 200 FEET AND/OR VSBYS AOB 1/2SM
07Z TO 13Z TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
DISCUSSION...
WHAT IS NOW THE PRIMARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT EMERGED OUT OF THE
EARLY WEEK TX/MEXICO UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM IS NOW LIFTING DUE
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF IL/IN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK DIRECTLY THROUGH WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING. WITH TIME...THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND THE RESULTANT
CHANGE IN KINEMATICS/WIND DIRECTION WILL FORCE A CHANGE IN THE
ADVECTIONS AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZE THE 850-700MB FGEN AXIS THAT HAD
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET DAY...TO THE NORTH OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME TO HAPPEN HOWEVER...AS THE
OVERALL EVENT IS A SLOW EVOLVING ONE. A SHARP NORTHERN CUTOFF TO THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY THE CENTER OF
THE PRECIPITATION AXIS TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AT 00Z...OVER THE
NORTHERN THUMB AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON AT 06Z...WITH THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE BAND EXITING THE CWA AT/AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING. RH
PROGS...SATELLITE TRENDS...UPSTREAM CEILIOMETER OBS...SUPPORT SOME
COMPONENT OF MIDLEVEL DRY AIR OR A MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT OF SORTS TO
BEGIN LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS
WOULD END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER...HOW
MUCH MIDLEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IS UP FOR DEBATE. PREFER A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION WHERE PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE STRIPPED OUT WITH
A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH TIME...HOWEVER...
FOR THOSE THAT REMAIN WITHIN THE HEART OF THE FGEN AXIS RATES WILL
BE SLOW TO WANE. IN THE EARLIER UPDATE...DISCUSSED HOW TOTAL
PRECIPITATION RAINFALL ESTIMATE WAS PROBABLY OVERDOING AMOUNTS.
WHILE TRUE ON THE FRONT END OF THE ENVIRONMENT WHERE DRY AIR WAS
FIGHTING OF PRECIPITATION...IT APPEARS THAT RATES ARE CERTAINLY
DOING WELL WITH COLUMN SATURATION. MANY AREAS IN THE DETROIT METRO
HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FOOTPRINT OF .25 TO .40 OF AN INCH. GIVEN THE
TIME YET TO GO AND THE BULLISH RAP QPF FIELD...TOTAL QPF IN EXCESS OF
50 INCH...TO .75 INCH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
SOME VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING NAM AND HRRR ARE TRYING TO
PRESERVE SOME SPURIOUS AND ANOMALOUS QPF MAXIMUM ALONG THE LEADING
CVA OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THIS MODELED CONVECTION HAS BEEN
FORECASTED TO LIFT DIRECTLY NORTH OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
MBS...CONTAMINATING THE QPF FIELD. IT SEEMS THE CENTRAL INDIANA
CLUSTER WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SURVIVING WITH THE GENERAL LACK
OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECTING A
TRANSITION FROM LAMINAR STRATIFORM RAIN TO MORE RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING.
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO EXIST. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE STRENGTH OF
THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL EVOLVE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME DATA SETS
SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 6 TO 7 KNOTS OF SUSTAINED WIND HOLDING ON.
MODELED CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT FIELD POINT TO THIS DIRECTION
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONSENSUS OR CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO HEIGHTEN ANY
MESSAGE. FEELING IS IT COULD BE AS LATE AS 10Z BEFORE FOG
DEVELOPS...AND POSSIBLY TAKE UNTIL VERY LATE MORNING TO LIFT.
A WEAKNESS OR BUCKLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD DIRECTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND TROUGHINESS OVER THE STATE ON MONDAY. THE WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDING THROUGH THE CWA SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL AIRMASS. RH PROGS SHOW SOLID SATURATION HOLDING AT 700MB AND
THIS RAISES QUESTION AS TO THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON THE SHOULDERS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF A MORE
FOCUSED SURFACE REFLECTION/SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EFFECTS INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY...SLIGHTLY LESS
OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
50S TO 60 DEGREES FAR SOUTH. THE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD/FOG IN THE MORNING. IT COULD TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM APPRECIABLY.
THE MONDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD SEEMS IT WILL BE GOVERNED BY A COMPLEX
INTERACTION THAT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW
LIFTING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE MORE VIGOROUS LOW AFFECTION
PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS. THE NORTHERN SPIRAL EDGE TO THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO UNRAVEL AND BE CAUGHT WITHIN A TRAILING
DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS PRECEDING WAVE. ESSENTIALLY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL THEN ZIPPER ALONG THIS DEFORMATION AXIS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. BASED ON EARLIER DATA...SHADED DRY FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT MAY HAVE BEEN AN OVERCORRECTION AS SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST BEYOND 00Z TUESDAY.
THE COMPLEXITIES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY DYNAMIC SETUP. THE PROBLEM IS
THERE IS A MYRIAD OF PV INTERACTIONS YET TO OCCUR THAT WILL HAVE
A SAY IN THE FINAL OUTCOME. THE TREND FOR THE 13.12Z SUITE WAS TO
PUSH TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ON THE THETA E RIDGE
INTO THE 06-12Z WEDNESDAY WINDOW...WHILE WAITING ON THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. LATEST SWODY3 HAS A MARGINAL
DESIGNATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA CONDITIONAL ON
UPSTREAM...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. IT REMAINS A FLUID SITUATION BASED ON
DEPENDENCE OF TIMING AND ABILITY TO BECOME WELL MIXED AT THE
SURFACE...BUT THE POTENTIAL APPEARS GOOD FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TRANSPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
THAT THERMODYNAMICS AND VERY DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO
POSSIBLE WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER 50`S. A COOLING TREND
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
FRESH EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. WINDS WILL THEN WEAK DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY HAS A
WEAK AND VERY BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL RESPOND
TEMPORARILY OUT OF THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW
EXITING THE AREA...BEFORE QUICKLY ORGANIZING EASTERLY AGAIN AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO BE MUCH MORE DYNAMIC. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
YET...BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME VERY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF WEDNESDAY. POSTFRONTAL WESTERLY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY EXCEED 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ST CLAIR AND THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...CB/DE
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
654 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Main concern continues to be focused on later this afternoon and
this evening for the potential of severe weather.
The HRRR has been consistent in developing convection along the
surface low and northeast along the inverted surface trough. Surface
analysis for 19Z shows the surface low is likely in between Moberly,
Columbia and Hannibal. This area has remained cloud free and is
likely to be able to build enough instability, perhaps as high as
1500 J/kg of SBCAPE. 0-6km shear though is very favorable for storm
organization and may be pushing 60 KTs. The good news is that this
environment should be east of the forecast area, given the forecasts
for the surface low. But there may be enough MUCAPE in the post-
frontal regime that when combined the forcing of the upper trough,
that a few thunderstorms cold develop late in the afternoon to early
evening. The CAPE/shear combination is not as robust as it is in the
equivalent warm sector but the environment may be supportive of
marginally severe hail.
The other issue in the short-term deals with the backside of this
system and the potential for strong winds. It is usually very
favorable for advisory level surface winds when an upper level PV
anomaly moves overhead. However, the surface low in this case is
well removed from the area and moving into Wisconsin or the UP. The
pressure gradient magnitude drops off to between 25 and 30 ubars/km
through the morning hours. Also, by the time deeper mixing into
strong winds aloft occurs, the pressure gradient is weakening and
winds aloft diminish. So it just doesn`t look like the ingredients
line up to get a good synoptic wind event to the levels that an
advisory would be needed. But it will still be windy across the
region tomorrow morning through early in the afternoon. The
strongest winds will be in our northeastern zones, closest to the
departing the surface low.
While the weather will be cooler than the recent past, overall it
looks to be quiet as well. The area will be in a general
northwesterly flow pattern with a weak blocking signal over the
Great Lakes. With predominantly cyclonic curvature to the flow over
or region, temperatures will be on the cool side. It`s not really
until the end of next week, when the upper ridge over the west
begins to shift eastward, that flow turns back to the south and we
warm back into the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Showers clearing out of the area this evening. Shower activity over
KS/NE is likely to dissipate after sunset, so that mostly clear skies
will be the rule for the remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS TO EXPAND POPS FOR THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWS
THAT -SHRA CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NE...
MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM YANKTON TO COLUMBUS AND BEATRICE AS
OF 23Z. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW PCPN PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. A 90KT 300MB JET SEGMENT WAS ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER SEGMENT OF 120KTS ALONG THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN CWA LATER
THIS EVENING BUT EXIT EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY.
THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO MODEST MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SHOULD CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS THAT MAY BORDER WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEADLINE AT THIS
POINT AS 850MB FLOW IS JUST NOT LOOKING QUITE STRONG ENOUGH.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
THE NEXT SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN COMES SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NWRLY FLOW AND CLOSES OFF JUST TO OUR EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TO OUR
WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD BRING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. -SHRA COULD
PRODUCE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT GENERALLY LEFT CIGS ABOVE 3000
FEET THROUGH THE EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 07Z AT ALL
THREE SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1207 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TODAY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT AND
THE ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH THE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS AND REMOVED SHOWERS
MENTIONED THROUGH TODAY. THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
PUSHES EAST BETTER TOP DOWN MOISTENING MAY OCCUR FOR PRECIPITATION
TO REACH THE GROUND. TODAY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM CREATE A
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AREA OF CLOUDS/SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS UTAH AND
IDAHO SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MIXING HEIGHTS TO 10KFT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN
NEBRASKA. WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SFC WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE ANYTHING STRONGER EXCEPT THE MOSGUIDE. NONETHELESS
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENT OFTEN PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. THE RAP SUGGESTS ELEVATED CAPE LESS THAN 200 J/KG WHICH
COULD PERHAPS LIMIT PRECIPE LOADING AND THE WIND GUSTS. HIGHS IN THE
70S ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IGNORES THE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND RESPECTS THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS EVENING.
SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WITH
THE BLACK HILLS CONVERGENCE OPERATING. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
WIND AND DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ENHANCED MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
IS EVIDENT WITH ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AT 290K... INVERTED V PROFILES
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS... AND FALLING DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
DEEP MIXING TO 700HPA TUESDAY AND 650HPA WEDNESDAY NOTED IN GFS AND
NAM SOUNDINGS WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA ALSO
RESULTS IN A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT... FURTHER AIDING IN DRY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF USING THE DRIEST GUIDANCE...
MAINLY MAV... AND FURTHER REDUCED DEW POINTS TO TAKE IN ACCOUNT CAA
AND DOWNSLOPE. DESPITE COOLER HIGHS... DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MIN RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAKE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OVERALL... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN MIXED SUN/CLOUDS... STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW... AND
850HPA TEMPS AROUND 3C AT 18-00Z BOTH DAYS. A WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY... BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
FORCING REMAIN NORTH OF THE SDAK BORDER... SO REMOVED SCHC POPS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HWY 20.
LONG RANGE...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... GFS AND EURO ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY AND
A 500HPA LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY... BUT DIFFERENCES GROW OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE LOW MERGING WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVING EAST
QUICKLY... ALLOWING 850HPA TEMPS TO RECOVER TO 10C ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO KEEPS THE LOW PARKED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES IT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY... MAKING FOR A MUCH SLOWER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
AND POSSIBLY WETTER WEEKEND FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. A WEAK COOL FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AREA THURSDAY... WHICH MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP NEAR
THE PINE RIDGE. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE AS LOW AS 800HPA ALONG
WITH SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP... ALBEIT LIGHT... FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ARRIVES FRIDAY AS A
LEESIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW.
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FRIDAY MORNING... BUT LIFT IS
RATHER WEAK... ESPECIALLY IN THE DGZ. LEFT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY
DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AT TERMINALS KLBF
AND KVTN. MODELS ON TRACK WITH SURFACE LOW TO MOVE EAST WITH COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED BELOW 10 KFT THROUGH ABOUT 10Z THEN MOISTENS DOWN SOME YET
AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY BELOW 5 KFT. THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 00Z TO 04Z WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
FUTHER EAST TO INCLUDE THE ONEILL AREA THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
THE BEST GUESS USING THE HRRR...RAP AND HRRREXP MODELS IS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT RH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN FRENCHMAN BASIN
FIRE ZONE. THE ARW AND NMM MODELS WERE A BIT DRIER.
ISOLATED DRY TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY SPARK A FEW FIRES WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTN. THE LIGHTENING ACTIVITY LEVEL IS 3. ALL OF
THIS SUGGESTS THERE IS GOOD RANGE FIRE POTENTIAL BUT LESS THAN THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD.
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR WILD FIRE DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA IS OF GREATEST
CONCERN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST AND HUMIDITY LOWEST.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS AREA.
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT. ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TUESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KECK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...KECK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1030 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TODAY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT AND
THE ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH THE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS AND REMOVED SHOWERS
MENTIONED THROUGH TODAY. THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
PUSHES EAST BETTER TOP DOWN MOISTENING MAY OCCUR FOR PRECIPITATION
TO REACH THE GROUND. TODAY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM CREATE A
FIRE HAZARD AS GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AREA OF CLOUDS/SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS UTAH AND
IDAHO SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MIXING HEIGHTS TO 10KFT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN
NEBRASKA. WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SFC WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE ANYTHING STRONGER EXCEPT THE MOSGUIDE. NONETHELESS
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENT OFTEN PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. THE RAP SUGGESTS ELEVATED CAPE LESS THAN 200 J/KG WHICH
COULD PERHAPS LIMIT PRECIPE LOADING AND THE WIND GUSTS. HIGHS IN THE
70S ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IGNORES THE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND RESPECTS THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS EVENING.
SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WITH
THE BLACK HILLS CONVERGENCE OPERATING. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
WIND AND DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ENHANCED MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
IS EVIDENT WITH ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AT 290K... INVERTED V PROFILES
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS... AND FALLING DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
DEEP MIXING TO 700HPA TUESDAY AND 650HPA WEDNESDAY NOTED IN GFS AND
NAM SOUNDINGS WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA ALSO
RESULTS IN A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT... FURTHER AIDING IN DRY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF USING THE DRIEST GUIDANCE...
MAINLY MAV... AND FURTHER REDUCED DEW POINTS TO TAKE IN ACCOUNT CAA
AND DOWNSLOPE. DESPITE COOLER HIGHS... DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MIN RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAKE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OVERALL... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN MIXED SUN/CLOUDS... STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW... AND
850HPA TEMPS AROUND 3C AT 18-00Z BOTH DAYS. A WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY... BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
FORCING REMAIN NORTH OF THE SDAK BORDER... SO REMOVED SCHC POPS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HWY 20.
LONG RANGE...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... GFS AND EURO ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY AND
A 500HPA LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY... BUT DIFFERENCES GROW OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE LOW MERGING WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVING EAST
QUICKLY... ALLOWING 850HPA TEMPS TO RECOVER TO 10C ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO KEEPS THE LOW PARKED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES IT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY... MAKING FOR A MUCH SLOWER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
AND POSSIBLY WETTER WEEKEND FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. A WEAK COOL FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AREA THURSDAY... WHICH MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP NEAR
THE PINE RIDGE. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE AS LOW AS 800HPA ALONG
WITH SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP... ALBEIT LIGHT... FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ARRIVES FRIDAY AS A
LEESIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW.
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FRIDAY MORNING... BUT LIFT IS
RATHER WEAK... ESPECIALLY IN THE DGZ. LEFT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY
DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTL ROCKIES MOVES EAST TODAY AND
AFFECTS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED BUT CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS...NEAR 40KT.
SHOWER COVERAGE IS ISOLATED WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY BUT BECOMES
SCATTERED EAST OF 83 TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR IN ISOLATED -RW/-SHSN
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN SHERIDAN COUNTY TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
THE BEST GUESS USING THE HRRR...RAP AND HRRREXP MODELS IS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT RH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN FRENCHMAN BASIN
FIRE ZONE. THE ARW AND NMM MODELS WERE A BIT DRIER.
ISOLATED DRY TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY SPARK A FEW FIRES WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTN. THE LIGHTENING ACTIVITY LEVEL IS 3. ALL OF
THIS SUGGESTS THERE IS GOOD RANGE FIRE POTENTIAL BUT LESS THAN THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD.
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR WILD FIRE DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA IS OF GREATEST
CONCERN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST AND HUMIDITY LOWEST.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS AREA.
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT. ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TUESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KECK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AREA OF CLOUDS/SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS UTAH AND
IDAHO SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MIXING HEIGHTS TO 10KFT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN
NEBRASKA. WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SFC WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE ANYTHING STRONGER EXCEPT THE MOSGUIDE. NONETHELESS
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENT OFTEN PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. THE RAP SUGGESTS ELEVATED CAPE LESS THAN 200 J/KG WHICH
COULD PERHAPS LIMIT PRECIPE LOADING AND THE WIND GUSTS. HIGHS IN THE
70S ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IGNORES THE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND RESPECTS THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS EVENING.
SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WITH
THE BLACK HILLS CONVERGENCE OPERATING. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
WIND AND DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ENHANCED MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
IS EVIDENT WITH ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AT 290K... INVERTED V PROFILES
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS... AND FALLING DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
DEEP MIXING TO 700HPA TUESDAY AND 650HPA WEDNESDAY NOTED IN GFS AND
NAM SOUNDINGS WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA ALSO
RESULTS IN A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT... FURTHER AIDING IN DRY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF USING THE DRIEST GUIDANCE...
MAINLY MAV... AND FURTHER REDUCED DEW POINTS TO TAKE IN ACCOUNT CAA
AND DOWNSLOPE. DESPITE COOLER HIGHS... DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MIN RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAKE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OVERALL... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN MIXED SUN/CLOUDS... STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW... AND
850HPA TEMPS AROUND 3C AT 18-00Z BOTH DAYS. A WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY... BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
FORCING REMAIN NORTH OF THE SDAK BORDER... SO REMOVED SCHC POPS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HWY 20.
LONG RANGE...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... GFS AND EURO ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY AND
A 500HPA LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY... BUT DIFFERENCES GROW OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE LOW MERGING WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVING EAST
QUICKLY... ALLOWING 850HPA TEMPS TO RECOVER TO 10C ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO KEEPS THE LOW PARKED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES IT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY... MAKING FOR A MUCH SLOWER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
AND POSSIBLY WETTER WEEKEND FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. A WEAK COOL FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AREA THURSDAY... WHICH MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP NEAR
THE PINE RIDGE. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE AS LOW AS 800HPA ALONG
WITH SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP... ALBEIT LIGHT... FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ARRIVES FRIDAY AS A
LEESIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW.
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FRIDAY MORNING... BUT LIFT IS
RATHER WEAK... ESPECIALLY IN THE DGZ. LEFT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY
DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTL ROCKIES MOVES EAST TODAY AND
AFFECTS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED BUT CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS...NEAR 40KT.
SHOWER COVERAGE IS ISOLATED WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY BUT BECOMES
SCATTERED EAST OF 83 TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR IN ISOLATED -RW/-SHSN
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN SHERIDAN COUNTY TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
THE BEST GUESS USING THE HRRR...RAP AND HRRREXP MODELS IS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT RH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN FRENCHMAN BASIN
FIRE ZONE. THE ARW AND NMM MODELS WERE A BIT DRIER.
ISOLATED DRY TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY SPARK A FEW FIRES WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTN. THE LIGHTENING ACTIVITY LEVEL IS 3. ALL OF
THIS SUGGESTS THERE IS GOOD RANGE FIRE POTENTIAL BUT LESS THAN THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD.
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR WILD FIRE DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA IS OF GREATEST
CONCERN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST AND HUMIDITY LOWEST.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS AREA.
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT. ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TUESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
445 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AREA OF CLOUDS/SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS UTAH AND
IDAHO SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MIXING HEIGHTS TO 10KFT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN
NEBRASKA. WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SFC WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE ANYTHING STRONGER EXCEPT THE MOSGUIDE. NONETHELESS
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENT OFTEN PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. THE RAP SUGGESTS ELEVATED CAPE LESS THAN 200 J/KG WHICH
COULD PERHAPS LIMIT PRECIPE LOADING AND THE WIND GUSTS. HIGHS IN THE
70S ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IGNORES THE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND RESPECTS THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS EVENING.
SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WITH
THE BLACK HILLS CONVERGENCE OPERATING. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
WIND AND DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ENHANCED MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
IS EVIDENT WITH ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AT 290K... INVERTED V PROFILES
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS... AND FALLING DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
DEEP MIXING TO 700HPA TUESDAY AND 650HPA WEDNESDAY NOTED IN GFS AND
NAM SOUNDINGS WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA ALSO
RESULTS IN A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT... FURTHER AIDING IN DRY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF USING THE DRIEST GUIDANCE...
MAINLY MAV... AND FURTHER REDUCED DEW POINTS TO TAKE IN ACCOUNT CAA
AND DOWNSLOPE. DESPITE COOLER HIGHS... DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MIN RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAKE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OVERALL... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN MIXED SUN/CLOUDS... STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW... AND
850HPA TEMPS AROUND 3C AT 18-00Z BOTH DAYS. A WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY... BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
FORCING REMAIN NORTH OF THE SDAK BORDER... SO REMOVED SCHC POPS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HWY 20.
LONG RANGE...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... GFS AND EURO ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY AND
A 500HPA LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY... BUT DIFFERENCES GROW OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE LOW MERGING WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVING EAST
QUICKLY... ALLOWING 850HPA TEMPS TO RECOVER TO 10C ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO KEEPS THE LOW PARKED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES IT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY... MAKING FOR A MUCH SLOWER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
AND POSSIBLY WETTER WEEKEND FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. A WEAK COOL FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AREA THURSDAY... WHICH MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP NEAR
THE PINE RIDGE. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE AS LOW AS 800HPA ALONG
WITH SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP... ALBEIT LIGHT... FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ARRIVES FRIDAY AS A
LEESIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW.
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FRIDAY MORNING... BUT LIFT IS
RATHER WEAK... ESPECIALLY IN THE DGZ. LEFT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY
DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AON 20000
FT AGL OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY WITH
BROKEN CIGS AROUND 10000 EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY 22Z
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH CIGS OF 7000 TO
10000 FT AGL EXPECTED. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT FEW TO
SCATTERED CIGS AROUND 20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
10000 FT AGL BY MIDDAY MONDAY...THEN INCREASE TO 20000 FT AGL BY
MONDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BE SPARSE...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE 06Z KVTN TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
THE BEST GUESS USING THE HRRR...RAP AND HRRREXP MODELS IS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT RH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN FRENCHMAN BASIN
FIRE ZONE. THE ARW AND NMM MODELS WERE A BIT DRIER.
ISOLATED DRY TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY SPARK A FEW FIRES WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTN. THE LIGHTENING ACTIVITY LEVEL IS 3. ALL OF
THIS SUGGESTS THERE IS GOOD RANGE FIRE POTENTIAL BUT LESS THAN THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD.
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR WILD FIRE DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA IS OF GREATEST
CONCERN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST AND HUMIDITY LOWEST.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS AREA.
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT. ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TUESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AREA OF CLOUDS/SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS UTAH AND
IDAHO SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MIXING HEIGHTS TO 10KFT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN
NEBRASKA. WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SFC WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE ANYTHING STRONGER EXCEPT THE MOSGUIDE. NONETHELESS
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENT OFTEN PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. THE RAP SUGGESTS ELEVATED CAPE LESS THAN 200 J/KG WHICH
COULD PERHAPS LIMIT PRECIPE LOADING AND THE WIND GUSTS. HIGHS IN THE
70S ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IGNORES THE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND RESPECTS THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS EVENING.
SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WITH
THE BLACK HILLS CONVERGENCE OPERATING. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
WIND AND DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ENHANCED MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
IS EVIDENT WITH ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AT 290K... INVERTED V PROFILES
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS... AND FALLING DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
DEEP MIXING TO 700HPA TUESDAY AND 650HPA WEDNESDAY NOTED IN GFS AND
NAM SOUNDINGS WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA ALSO
RESULTS IN A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT... FURTHER AIDING IN DRY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF USING THE DRIEST GUIDANCE...
MAINLY MAV... AND FURTHER REDUCED DEW POINTS TO TAKE IN ACCOUNT CAA
AND DOWNSLOPE. DESPITE COOLER HIGHS... DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MIN RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAKE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OVERALL... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN MIXED SUN/CLOUDS... STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW... AND
850HPA TEMPS AROUND 3C AT 18-00Z BOTH DAYS. A WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY... BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
FORCING REMAIN NORTH OF THE SDAK BORDER... SO REMOVED SCHC POPS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HWY 20.
LONG RANGE...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... GFS AND EURO ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY AND
A 500HPA LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY... BUT DIFFERENCES GROW OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE LOW MERGING WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVING EAST
QUICKLY... ALLOWING 850HPA TEMPS TO RECOVER TO 10C ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO KEEPS THE LOW PARKED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES IT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY... MAKING FOR A MUCH SLOWER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
AND POSSIBLY WETTER WEEKEND FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. A WEAK COOL FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AREA THURSDAY... WHICH MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP NEAR
THE PINE RIDGE. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE AS LOW AS 800HPA ALONG
WITH SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP... ALBEIT LIGHT... FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ARRIVES FRIDAY AS A
LEESIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW.
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FRIDAY MORNING... BUT LIFT IS
RATHER WEAK... ESPECIALLY IN THE DGZ. LEFT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY
DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AON 20000
FT AGL OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY WITH
BROKEN CIGS AROUND 10000 EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY 22Z
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH CIGS OF 7000 TO
10000 FT AGL EXPECTED. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT FEW TO
SCATTERED CIGS AROUND 20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
10000 FT AGL BY MIDDAY MONDAY...THEN INCREASE TO 20000 FT AGL BY
MONDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BE SPARSE...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE 06Z KVTN TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
THE BEST GUESS USING THE HRRR...RAP AND HRRREXP
MODELS IS RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
AREA OF LESS THAN 15 PERCENT RH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN FRENCHMAN
BASIN FIRE ZONE. ISOLATED DRY TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY SPARK A FEW
FIRES WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTN. THE LIGHTENING ACTIVITY LEVEL IS
3. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THERE IS GOOD RANGE FIRE POTENTIAL BUT LESS
THAN THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
247 PM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE TAPERING OFF
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OVER
THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO BRING A SPELL OF DRIER WEATHER TO MOST OF THE
GREAT BASIN THIS WEEK. HOWEVER LIGHT SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ELKO COUNTY. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS TURNED OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS ABOUT NOON TODAY IN THE ELKO AREA. SURFACE TEMPS
HAVE BEEN STEADY AROUND 40 DEGREES AS BREAKS OF SUN HAVE OCCURRED
OFF AND ON. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.
TONIGHT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AND PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OUT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SLOWLY MOVE INLAND TO
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS IS POSITIONED OFF THE COAST. DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN NEVADA DURING
THIS TIME...THESE SHOULD BE SNOW SHOWERS DESPITE THE DAYTIME
VALLEY TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW 40S DAILY. TEMPERATURES
OUTSIDE OF ELKO COUNTY WILL BE SLOWLY WARMING BACK INTO THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
A BROAD CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE NRN PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES IS A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS THAT CUTS ACROSS ERN IDAHO AND
POINTS TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A SHALLOW STRETCHED OUT COLD
FRONT WOULD CUT ACROSS NRN NEVADA IN THE SCENARIO. THE LATEST ECMWF
SHOWS THE SHEAR AXIS CLOSER TO NE NEVADA WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELKO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. EITHER WAY...MOISTURE
WOULD BE SPARSE WITH NO DYNAMICAL FORCING.
WITH THE WARM RIDGE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN STATES...A PROMINENT
WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE VALLEYS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S THIS WEEKEND (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NRN
VALLEYS NEAR THE BORDER).
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FLATTER AND FARTHER EAST
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST. OFFSHORE TROUGH
PROBABLY TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY WEATHER OVER THE NRN NEVADA
VALLEYS...BUT THE GFS DOES DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN NEVADA
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE WIND 25 KTS WITH G35KTS
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 01Z TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
PASSING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM KWMC TO KEKO...BUT STAY NORTH OF KELY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE ENDING AFTER SUNSET.
NOT AS WINDY TUESDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ELKO COUNTY...BUT MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE KEKO TERMINAL.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY-
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
92/88/88
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
238 PM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong gusty winds continued this afternoon but are expected to
subside tonight as high pressure moves into the region. Gradual
warming is expected this week with temperatures well above normal by
weeks end. Gusty winds may return next weekend with potential for
light precipitation in the northern Sierra early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Strong gusty winds continued across the region today associated with
cold front nearby and enhanced pressure gradient. Some areas in
Mono/Mineral Counties hit what would normally be Red Flag criteria
with humidities below 10% and gusts 40-60 mph. This included the
Mammoth Airport for several hours. Winds will drop off rather
quickly tonight as gradient relaxes with incoming high pressure.
That shows up well in the HRRR guidance. Could still see a few light
rain/snow showers early this evening in far NE Cal and NW Nev but no
accumulations.
Tuesday looks to be a transition day, with gusty W/NW winds likely
north of a Susanville-Fallon line with the retreating front still in
the vicinity. Building high pressure just off the west coast will
yield warming temperatures aloft over the region and a weak NE low
level flow Wednesday-Thursday. Warming in valleys will be gradual as
a result but strong inversions are not anticipated. Overall looks to
be a prime week to get outdoor projects or yard work done. -Chris
.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...
Forecast models continue to show the ridge axis shifting across the
Sierra and western Nevada on Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions
expected through the end of the week along with light northeast,
east winds for the Sierra and western Nevada. Temperatures will
climb into the upper 60s and near 70 degrees by Saturday as the
ridge axis shifts eastward and allows light west winds to return.
There is potential for the ridge to break down by late Saturday into
Sunday which will allow the large scale pattern to become a bit more
active again. Both operational models are targeting an upper level
jet along with some moisture towards the west coast. There is some
uncertainty where the jet will land, anywhere from the Lake Tahoe
Basin up towards the Pacific Northwest. There is some potential for
valley rain and mountain snow showers for late Sunday into Monday.
Edan
&&
.AVIATION...
The strong wind gusts around 60-80 kts across the Sierra ridges from
this morning will continue to diminish through the afternoon and
evening. Terminals in the eastern Sierra and western Nevada should
expect wind gusts decreasing to around 15-25 kts by this evening.
Only terminal that may still see wind gusts later in the evening
would be KMMH.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the area by this
afternoon and evening. Conditions have dried out considerably, so we
don`t anticipate fog forming in the Sierra valleys. Edan
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Pyramid Lake
in NVZ004.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
NVZ002.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
CAZ072.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
813 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY BRINGING CONTINUED STRONG WINDS TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT AND LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEVADA. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
&&
.UPDATE...BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP AND LATEST MODEL DATA...MUCH OF
THE CWA WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER MUCH OF TODAY. I
UPDATED SKY GRIDS FOR TODAY TO GENERALLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
LATEST SOUNDING DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE I DO NOT EXPECT QUITE AS
MUCH WARMING FOR A COUPLE LOCATIONS AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. I
TWEAKED HIGHS TODAY DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR LAS VEGAS.
&&
.AVIATION....FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY. TYPICAL NIGHT TIME DRAINAGE WINDS WILL KICK IN THIS EVENING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH TODAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE.
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE
SIERRA. THERE COULD BE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST FROM LAS VEGAS WEST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. AREAS AROUND LAS VEGAS AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
219 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY RESULTING
IN CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A HIGH WIND
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES AS THE JET STREAM
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE 500MB FLOW MOVES PERPENDICULAR
ACROSS THE SIERRA. LOCAL MODELS SHOW A CONTINUING DOWNSLOPE
SIGNATURE THAT LASTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE OWENS VALLEY AND MOJAVE DESERT HAS BEEN VERIFYING OVERNIGHT AND
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS TODAY. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN TODAY IS
ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE
MODELS SHOW DECENT WEST WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE AND THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN THE ADVISORY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOOKING AT ABOUT 5
OR 6 DEGREES WARMER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND A FEW FAVORED AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE BREEZY
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, TEMPERATURES LOOK
SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY HOWEVER, THE ECS MOS IS 2-4 DEGREES COOLER
TODAY THAN THE MET/MAV AND 5-6 DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY. DO TO THE
DIFFERENCES, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE INHERITED FORECAST AND THE TWO
BEST MODEL PERFORMERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RIDGING EXPANDS OFF THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO DRY AND MILD TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY, DIVING
DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE, MORE OVER NORTHEAST/EASTERN UTAH
ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA JUST A BIT, CREATING LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. WOULD EXPECT THE STRONGEST NORTH WINDS TO BE ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO
OUR EAST SUNDAY, MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP, WITH
SURFACE WINDS STARTING TO BECOME A BIT BREEZY. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR WEATHER-RELATED
DAMAGE ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE................PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALMEN
LONG TERM.............PADDOCK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
811 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Winds remain rather robust across the region this morning. Mammoth
Airport gusting to 62 mph, nearly the same at Five Mile Flat in
Storey County, and earlier we had 120 mph along the Sierra Crest
near Tahoe. Latest HRRR guidance has winds peaking over next few
hours then gradually subsiding by late afternoon as flow aloft
turns NW, lessens, and pressure gradient relaxes.
I`ll extend the wind advisories for Lovelock/Fallon/Mono Co areas
until 2 PM. Will also post a Lake Wind Advisory for Tahoe until 8
PM due to ongoing strong winds (40-45 mph on buoys) with rough
waters likely through the day today. Winds along the Sierra Front
will see gusts 40-55 mph, mainly in the wind prone areas and
foothills, so not widespread enough to warrant an advisory. -Chris
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 333 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow showers will diminish this morning as the winter storm
departs the region. Gusty winds continue today but will diminish by
late afternoon and evening. Quieter weather will return this week as
high pressure builds across the West and provides drier and warmer
conditions to the region.
SHORT TERM...
The last push of moisture is currently working its way across the
Sierra Interstate 80 corridor with lighter snowfall to south over
Mono County. Snow levels remained high overnight which produced a
rain/snow mix near the Lake Tahoe elevation and limited snow
accumulation. Currently snow levels remain around 6500-7000 feet
through the Tahoe Basin and 5500-6000 feet farther north through
Lassen County. Still looking for a few additional inches of
accumulation mainly above 7000 feet through the morning, but the
bulk of the precipitation has already fallen and have cancelled
the Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories. Snow
levels will slowly fall through the morning which should return a
rain/snow mix at lake level.
Some lingering showers will prevail through the afternoon but
precipitation amounts will be light with little additional impacts
expected through the afternoon. Winds will remain breezy today as a
west gradient develops behind the storm today. Wind Advisories will
remain in place over Mono and Mineral Counties and also the western
Nevada Basin and Range this morning with diminishing winds by this
evening. Choppy and hazardous boating conditions are expected for
Pyramid Lake and have posted a Lake Wind Advisory through the
afternoon.
After this system passes, we will return to a quieter and drier
weather pattern as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the
eastern Pacific and west coast. High temperatures will warm a few
degrees above seasonal averages with upper 50s to low 60s possible
across western Nevada by mid-week. Overnight temperatures will be
chilly with freezing temperatures possible Tuesday and again
Wednesday morning. Lows in the 20s can be expected for Sierra
valleys through mid-week. Fuentes
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...
High pressure continues to develop Thursday with the ridge axis west
of the Sierra. Model simulations show the ridge axis shifting
eastward to over the Sierra by Friday or Saturday. This pattern will
likely provide dry conditions, near average temperatures and
generally light NE-E winds for western NV and the eastern Sierra
through Friday and possibly through Saturday as well. However,
forecast confidence is lower starting Saturday regarding the
evolution of the ridge. It`s possible the ridge will weaken and
shift eastward Saturday or Sunday, which could lead to increasing
moisture streaming off the Pacific along with some potential for
valley rain and mountain snow showers for the second half of the
weekend. JCM
AVIATION...
Strong wind gusts 60-80 kts will continue across Sierra ridges
through this morning before slowly diminishing this afternoon.
These conditions will create moderate to severe turbulence in the
lee of the Sierra today. Terminals in the eastern Sierra and
western NV should expect wind gusts 25-40 kts today with a
decreasing trend during the afternoon. There is a chance for
occasional stronger gusts 45-55 kts in Mono/Mineral counties
including KMMH mainly through the morning hours.
Precipitation has tapered off to showers but mountain obscuration
along with brief MVFR or possibly IFR conditions remain possible at
Sierra terminals through this morning. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail across the area by afternoon. JCM
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
evening for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon NVZ001-004.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
NVZ002.
CA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon CAZ073.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
CAZ072.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN SPOTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, AS WELL AS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH MAINLY RAIN
FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MID MARCH THOUGH,
WITH DAILY DEPARTURES RUNNING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1027 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED HOURLY POPS TO
REFLECT LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HRRR OUTPUT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON EVOLUTION OF LIGHT PCPN ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO OUR
AREA TODAY SO LEANED TOWARDS IT`S IDEA ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES
WERE ADJUSTED BASED OFF HOURLY TRENDS, WHERE IN PLACES IT`S
RUNNING COOLER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS (SLV) WHILE ELSEWHERE WE`VE
ALREADY REACHED FORECAST MAXIMA IN MANY SPOTS SO RAISED VALUES
THERE A BIT. A LIGHT ICING THREAT ACROSS ELEVATED TERRAIN OF
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN VT STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT OVERALL THREAT REMAINS MINIMAL BELOW 1000
FEET IN THESE AREAS AS TEMPERATURES CREEP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 743 AM EDT MONDAY...COLD SFC RIDGE ACROSS
ERN NEW ENGLAND AND ASSOCIATED DRY PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S) WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF LIGHT
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONTAL PCPN BAND SHIFTS SLOWLY
NEWD FROM NY/PA TODAY. NEWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONTAL BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER SLOW WITH STRONG DEFORMATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM SRN LOWER MICHIGAN ESEWD ACROSS OH/PA PER WV IMAGERY. IT
APPEARS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THAT ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
AROUND 13Z FOR THE SRN HALF OF ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY WARMING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS (42F
AT KSLK AT 11Z)...THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH MIXED PCPN ACROSS NRN
NY...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT SUMMIT LEVEL.
PRECIPITATION FINALLY REACHES CENTRAL/ERN VT AROUND 18-19Z. ALL
RAIN EXPECTED WEST OF THE GREENS WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING ONGOING
AND TEMPS UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S BY THE TIME PRECIP ARRIVES. EAST OF
THE GREENS...IT APPEARS A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET IS LIKELY
INITIALLY...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AFTER
SUNSET...WITH 825MB WARM LAYER OF +3 TO +4C NOTED AT 23Z NAM
SOUNDING FOR MPV. BELOW THAT LEVEL...COLD LAYER IS
MAINTAINED...MAINLY FOR SURFACE ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 1-3KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ERN VT. GIVEN LACK OF COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS/WARM
PAVEMENT TEMPS...NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH WIDESPREAD ICING
(ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY)...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY (AOB 1") FOLLOWED BY A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER SUNSET FOR ELEVATIONS
1-3KFT FROM MARSHFIELD TO SUTTON AND ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY VT. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED TRAVEL CONCERNS IS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AOA 1000FT...AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
NERN VT FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY.
INCREASING P-GRADIENT BRINGS SOME GUSTY SELY WINDS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND ALONG THE
WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS (30-40 MPH LATE MORNING THRU AFTN).
ALREADY SEEING SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS IN 11Z OBS...WITH TEMP
LOCALLY 38F AT RUT AND 45F AT STAR LAKE NY, WHILE GENERALLY IN
THE MID- UPR 20S ELSEWHERE WHERE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FOR NOW.
DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS MAY HOLD DOWN OVERALL RAINFALL AMTS SLIGHTLY
IN THESE AREAS. FORECAST PRECIPITATION TODAY THRU TONIGHT RANGES
FROM 0.15-0.3" MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALLY 0.25-0.40" ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND ERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
(ORANGE/WINDSOR COUNTIES) WITH LOCALIZED UPSLOPE EFFECTS. HIGH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S TODAY...EXCEPT AROUND
45F WRN RUTLAND COUNTY AND MID 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WILL SEE NARROW ZONES OF HIGHS NEAR 32-34F MARSHFIELD TO SUTTON
AND ACROSS THE 1-2KFT ELEVATIONAL BAND IN MOST OF THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WHERE ANY ICING WOULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
MAIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PASSES TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD. WILL STILL SEE SOME SPOTTY
RAIN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ABOVE 1KFT
TONIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
HRS. LOWS TEMPERATURES MAINLY LOW-MID 30S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVENTING MUCH OF A DECREASING IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT MONDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THUS MOST
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD IMPACT OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MORE SHOWERS. AXIS OF
WARMER 925/850 MB TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THUS LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
TUESDAY AND IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT MONDAY...AREA REMAINS IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THUS STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL NOT
BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A COOLING TREND TAKING
PLACE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN TAKES PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA. COULD SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DOES NOT MOVE IN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW TO KEEP MORE COLDER AIR IN OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO SOME SNOW.
AGAIN...WAY OUT IN TIME BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS WARM
FRONT AND SHOWERY PRECIPITATION LIFT THROUGH THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE HIGHEST ON MVFR AT KMPV, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
ELSEWHERE. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY 8 TO 15 KTS AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO 25 KTS THROUGH 03Z, ESPECIALLY AT
KRUT/KBTV/KPBG, THEN SLOWLY ABATING.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODIC
SHOWERY EPISODES EXPECTED AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE REAMINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
007.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1027 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN SPOTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, AS WELL AS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH MAINLY RAIN
FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MID MARCH THOUGH,
WITH DAILY DEPARTURES RUNNING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1027 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED HOURLY POPS TO
REFLECT LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HRRR OUTPUT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON EVOLUTION OF LIGHT PCPN ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO OUR
AREA TODAY SO LEANED TOWARDS IT`S IDEA ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES
WERE ADJUSTED BASED OFF HOURLY TRENDS, WHERE IN PLACES IT`S
RUNNING COOLER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS (SLV) WHILE ELSEWHERE WE`VE
ALREADY REACHED FORECAST MAXIMA IN MANY SPOTS SO RAISED VALUES
THERE A BIT. A LIGHT ICING THREAT ACROSS ELEVATED TERRAIN OF
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN VT STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT OVERALL THREAT REMAINS MINIMAL BELOW 1000
FEET IN THESE AREAS AS TEMPERATURES CREEP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 743 AM EDT MONDAY...COLD SFC RIDGE ACROSS
ERN NEW ENGLAND AND ASSOCIATED DRY PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S) WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF LIGHT
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONTAL PCPN BAND SHIFTS SLOWLY
NEWD FROM NY/PA TODAY. NEWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONTAL BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER SLOW WITH STRONG DEFORMATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM SRN LOWER MICHIGAN ESEWD ACROSS OH/PA PER WV IMAGERY. IT
APPEARS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THAT ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
AROUND 13Z FOR THE SRN HALF OF ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY WARMING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS (42F
AT KSLK AT 11Z)...THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH MIXED PCPN ACROSS NRN
NY...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT SUMMIT LEVEL.
PRECIPITATION FINALLY REACHES CENTRAL/ERN VT AROUND 18-19Z. ALL
RAIN EXPECTED WEST OF THE GREENS WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING ONGOING
AND TEMPS UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S BY THE TIME PRECIP ARRIVES. EAST OF
THE GREENS...IT APPEARS A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET IS LIKELY
INITIALLY...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AFTER
SUNSET...WITH 825MB WARM LAYER OF +3 TO +4C NOTED AT 23Z NAM
SOUNDING FOR MPV. BELOW THAT LEVEL...COLD LAYER IS
MAINTAINED...MAINLY FOR SURFACE ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 1-3KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ERN VT. GIVEN LACK OF COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS/WARM
PAVEMENT TEMPS...NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH WIDESPREAD ICING
(ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY)...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY (AOB 1") FOLLOWED BY A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER SUNSET FOR ELEVATIONS
1-3KFT FROM MARSHFIELD TO SUTTON AND ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY VT. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED TRAVEL CONCERNS IS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AOA 1000FT...AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
NERN VT FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY.
INCREASING P-GRADIENT BRINGS SOME GUSTY SELY WINDS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND ALONG THE
WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS (30-40 MPH LATE MORNING THRU AFTN).
ALREADY SEEING SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS IN 11Z OBS...WITH TEMP
LOCALLY 38F AT RUT AND 45F AT STAR LAKE NY, WHILE GENERALLY IN
THE MID- UPR 20S ELSEWHERE WHERE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FOR NOW.
DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS MAY HOLD DOWN OVERALL RAINFALL AMTS SLIGHTLY
IN THESE AREAS. FORECAST PRECIPITATION TODAY THRU TONIGHT RANGES
FROM 0.15-0.3" MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALLY 0.25-0.40" ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND ERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
(ORANGE/WINDSOR COUNTIES) WITH LOCALIZED UPSLOPE EFFECTS. HIGH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S TODAY...EXCEPT AROUND
45F WRN RUTLAND COUNTY AND MID 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WILL SEE NARROW ZONES OF HIGHS NEAR 32-34F MARSHFIELD TO SUTTON
AND ACROSS THE 1-2KFT ELEVATIONAL BAND IN MOST OF THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WHERE ANY ICING WOULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
MAIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PASSES TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD. WILL STILL SEE SOME SPOTTY
RAIN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ABOVE 1KFT
TONIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
HRS. LOWS TEMPERATURES MAINLY LOW-MID 30S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVENTING MUCH OF A DECREASING IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT MONDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THUS MOST
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD IMPACT OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MORE SHOWERS. AXIS OF
WARMER 925/850 MB TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THUS LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
TUESDAY AND IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT MONDAY...AREA REMAINS IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THUS STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL NOT
BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A COOLING TREND TAKING
PLACE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN TAKES PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA. COULD SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DOES NOT MOVE IN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW TO KEEP MORE COLDER AIR IN OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO SOME SNOW.
AGAIN...WAY OUT IN TIME BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR THRU 14Z WITH JUST THICKENING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THEN, MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOCALIZED LIGHT RA/IP AT MPV MAINLY
AFTER 18Z. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF (1-3 HR) OPERATIONAL IMPACT DUE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION AT MPV...BUT PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE. WILL ALSO
SEE INCREASING SELY WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT AT BTV AND
AROUND 30KT AT RUT. LOCALLY ENE FLOW AT KMSS AROUND 10 KTS. CONTINUED
OVERCAST TONIGHT...BUT TRENDING VFR AT BTV/SLK/PBG/MSS...WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR STILL POSSIBLE FOR MPV AND AT TIMES FOR RUT.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CEILINGS MUCH OF TUESDAY DAYLIGHT HRS...THEN
TRENDING BACK TOWARD MVFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. ELONGATED
UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS ADDITIONAL -SHRA
FOR WEDNESDAY. TRENDING MAINLY VFR WED NGT ONWARD.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR VTZ003-004-007.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER. A WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOVER NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... STALL OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY...
THEN PUSH TO OUR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOW STRATUS STILL IN PLACE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER OF NC... THE STRATUS ELSEWHERE HAS
LIFTED AND MIXED OUT... ALLOWING FOR GOOD HEATING OVER THE SRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SRN PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS... WITH SHOWERS POPPING UP
FROM THE TRIANGLE SW TOWARD ROCKINGHAM. THESE WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY HEAD ENE INTO MARKEDLY MORE MOIST
(DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S) AND UNSTABLE AIR IN THE ERN SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WEAK VORTICITY OVER THE
ERN CAROLINAS -- SE OF THE POTENT UPPER WAVE NOW OVER CENTRAL KY/TN -
- AND ITS ATTENDANT DPVA ALONG WITH A MAX IN STJ-INDUCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE EXTRA DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THIS CONVECTION.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY NEAR 7.5 C/KM AND RISING... WITH
INCOMING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM... AND MLCAPE IS
ALREADY UP TO 1500 J/KG WITH 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
SO SEE NO REASON WHY THESE WON`T CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE...
PARTICULARLY WITH -10C TO -30C LAYER CAPE UP TO 400 J/KG. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THEN... THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH VA/NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... LIKELY
GENERATING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO
PIVOT ENE OVER WRN/NRN NC WITH LESSER COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST... WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
BE A BIT LOWER. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARMTH NEAR AND
SOON AFTER SUNSET AS WELL AS THE ANTICIPATED DIP IN THE HIGH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THE BETTER KINEMATICS SHOULD HELP BOOST STORM
INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT
AREAWIDE... WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. FOLLOWING
THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR TIMING... WE SHOULD SEE STORMS MOVING OUT OF
THE NE CWA NEAR OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH A CLEARING TREND FROM
SW TO NE LATE. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NE CWA COULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF FOG OR SHALLOW STRATUS BEFORE THE DRIER DEWPOINTS ARRIVE
VERY LATE TONIGHT... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. AFTER HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE VA BORDER TO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE... EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S (NW TO SE). -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL S/W AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK...ALLOWING A S/W RIDGE TO CROSS OUR REGION. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY-
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
AND WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD VARY FROM THE MID 70S FAR NE WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
DEPART...TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. CONTINUED MILD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS 55-60.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...S/W RIDGE MOVES EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL FORCE A SFC COLD FRONT TO SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL
LIMIT MOISTURE ADVECTION; THUS...EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS CENTRAL
NC DRY THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN THE EAST CONSIDERING THE TIME OF DAY THAT THE FRONT IS CROSSING
THE REGION. IF THE FASTER GFS/NAM SOLUTION VERIFIES...850MB TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW WILL INITIALLY
OFFSET/LIMIT THE COLD AIR. WITH THICKNESSES COMPARABLE TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...AND LOW LEVEL SW-WESTERLY FLOW FACTORED IN...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
VALUES ARE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR
MARCH 16TH. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO WANE THIS PERIOD AS UPPER AIR PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDER GOES A CHANGE.
A SERIES OF S/W AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION
THU AND FRIDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED WETTER WITH THE LEAD S/W AND SFC
FRONT THOUGH THIS MAY BE OVERDONE CONSIDERING MOISTURE ADVECTION
LIMITED DUE TO WLY FLOW. STILL COULD SEE A BAND OF CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO ON THU. NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY
AIR RIDGE BUILDS/EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SFC RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY WHILE A MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. S/W
TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO
INDUCE SFC LOW GENERATION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF COAST
SATURDAY...LIFTING ACROSS THE SE U.S. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A DECENT ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
CAROLINAS. WILL LIKELY SEE COOLER/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OCCUR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SFC PATTERN SIGNALS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HYBRID OR INSITU DAMMING EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN THREAT.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TRENDED DOWNWARD...STARTING OUT IN THE
70S THURSDAY...60S FRIDAY...AND 50S/LOWER 60S SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AND
50S MONDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S EXPECTED WITH 30S POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM MONDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...
BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
BRING THEIR OWN AVIATION HAZARDS WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL. STUBBORN IFR/LIFR STRATUS PERSISTS ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE NOW STALLED ACROSS FAR NRN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC. IFR CONDITIONS AT INT/GSO AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT
RDU/RWI/FAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO IMPROVE AND ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VFR AT THE START OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CUMULUS BASED AT 3 000 TO 4 000 AGL IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
THIS AFTERNOON... MOST LIKELY AFFECTING FAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER
CHANCE AT RDU/RWI AND AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE AT INT/GSO. HOWEVER...
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING... AND THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY AFFECT INT/GSO WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER THREAT AT
RDU/RWI/FAY. THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... EXITING OUR NORTHEAST SOON AFTER 1
AM/05Z. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE MORNING (FROM 08Z TO 16Z)... WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
WNW OR NW WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH
SAT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA... BUT ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WOULD BE BRIEF. -GIH
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 16TH.
RDU 86/1945
GSO 85/1945
FAY 87/1945
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
916 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
AS EXPECTED...MOST OF THE SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING
SINCE ABOUT 01 UTC NOW THAT THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
WERE SAMPLED BY OUR EVENING BALLOON LAUNCH ARE DECREASING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. HOWEVER...EASTERN MT RADAR IMAGES SHOW A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING...SO THEY ARE LIKELY BEING DRIVEN
BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. RECENT HRRR AND RAP SIMULATIONS DO SUGGEST
SOME MAINTENANCE OF THAT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL ABOUT 07 UTC
IN WESTERN ND...SO WE EXTENDED LOW-END POPS THROUGH THAT TIME. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO NUDGED DOWNWARD A BIT IN SOME LOCALES WITH
THIS UPDATE GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS WITH OBSERVED 02 UTC DEWPOINTS
MAINLY FROM 15 TO 25 F ACROSS THE AREA.
NOTE THAT WE DID CONSIDER ADDING LOW POPS TO NORTHWESTERN ND LATE
TONIGHT AS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS...BUT OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO SO YET. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
UPDATE MAY NEED TO ADD SOME PENDING LATER MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WE EXTENDED OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANOTHER 2 HOURS UNTIL 02
UTC /9 PM CDT/ WITH THIS UPDATE...AND SPREAD THE MENTION EASTWARD
A BIT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ND /INTO THE BISMARCK AREA/. THIS WAS
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS...WHICH REVEAL QUITE A FEW SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CELLS FROM NEAR BEULAH AND CARSON AND WESTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN MT. WE STILL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASE WITH SUNSET...BUT WANTED TO GIVE
IT A BIT MORE TIME TO END...ESPECIALLY SINCE RECENT RAP AND HRRR
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST A FEW CELLS COULD LINGER INTO MID EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WITH
HIGH OVER THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH TROUGH DIPPING TO THE SOUTH WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. A FEW
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WEAK ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...A MAINLY QUIET NIGHT IS ON TAP.
ON WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WEAKENS WHILE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT SHIFTS OVER
WISCONSIN. A FEW SHORT WAVES SLIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGING A LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVER
THE AREA AND DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO
WORK DOWN. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEPS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE MOST PART
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING OVER CENTRAL ND ON THURSDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK...WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THUS RIGHT NOW OUR MODEL
BLEND SOLUTION IS ONLY DEPICTING SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND UNTIL
ABOUT 07 UTC...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ND. CONFIDENCE IN THOSE CEILINGS IS RATHER LOW
THOUGH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ040-041-
043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
555 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WE EXTENDED OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANOTHER 2 HOURS UNTIL 02
UTC /9 PM CDT/ WITH THIS UPDATE...AND SPREAD THE MENTION EASTWARD
A BIT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ND /INTO THE BISMARCK AREA/. THIS WAS
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS...WHICH REVEAL QUITE A FEW SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CELLS FROM NEAR BEULAH AND CARSON AND WESTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN MT. WE STILL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASE WITH SUNSET...BUT WANTED TO GIVE
IT A BIT MORE TIME TO END...ESPECIALLY SINCE RECENT RAP AND HRRR
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST A FEW CELLS COULD LINGER INTO MID EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WITH
HIGH OVER THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH TROUGH DIPPING TO THE SOUTH WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. A FEW
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WEAK ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...A MAINLY QUIET NIGHT IS ON TAP.
ON WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WEAKENS WHILE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT SHIFTS OVER
WISCONSIN. A FEW SHORT WAVES SLIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGING A LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVER
THE AREA AND DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO
WORK DOWN. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEPS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE MOST PART
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING OVER CENTRAL ND ON THURSDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK...WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THUS RIGHT NOW OUR MODEL
BLEND SOLUTION IS ONLY DEPICTING SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS /AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ND/ WILL BOTH DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT WE
EXPECT BOTH TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT
ARE LIKELY AGAIN AFTER 15 UTC...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. WE
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN THOSE CEILINGS IS RELATIVELY LOW THOUGH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ040-041-
043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
VSBY IMPROVING QUICKLY ALONG WITH CLEARING. ALLOWED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON TIME. HESITANT TO MESS WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES AS WITH WARM COLUMN ONCE SOLAR KICKS IN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RECOVER ACCORDINGLY. NO CHANGES NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
MANY AREAS FROM VALLEY EAST STILL SHOWING VSBY AT A 1/4 MILE OR
BLO SO HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO NOON FROM IMMEDIATE
VALLEY EASTWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE. SITES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG SUCH AS GRAFTON AND VALLEY CITY HAD IMPROVED TO MORE THAN
6 MILES VISIBILITY EARLIER...BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE GONE BACK DOWN
AGAIN. DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACCORDING TO WEB CAMS AND
OBS SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 15Z AT
LEAST WITH NO CHANGES TO THE COUNTY CONFIGURATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
CLOUD COVER TODAY AND PRECIP MOVING IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL
BE THE MAIN PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN EDGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING. MAY
TRIM OFF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
6 TO 7 AM UPDATE THIS MORNING...EXACTLY HOW MANY TO BE DETERMINED.
THE RAP KEEPS HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM IS A BIT FASTER
IN DRYING THINGS OUT. DID NOT GO QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE
RAP...BUT HAVE SOME CLOUDS HANGING OUT A BIT LONGER TODAY...AND
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY. DO THINK WE WILL
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AND WITH 925MB TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOW
TEENS...UPPER 50S TO SOME MID 60S IN THE FAR WEST WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING OFF OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AND INTO THE CWA. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND
BY THIS EVENING AND MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY SETTING UP JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER BY TOMORROW
MORNING. MANY OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE FAIRLY HEALTHY QPF
VALUES...SO SOME DECENT RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY. WITH NEGATIVE
SHOWALTERS FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION...BUT THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE RAIN. THINK
THAT SEVERAL TENTHS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HALF AN INCH BY MORNING
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS/SFC BOUNDARY STALLS OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA...MOST LIKELY NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SET UP OF THE SYSTEM AND
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. THE NAM HAS OVER AN INCH OF QPF
JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER WHILE THE GFS IS MOSTLY OUT OF THE CWA
BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF AS ALSO BEEN TRENDING A BIT FURTHER
EAST WITH THE PRECIP BAND SET UP. GEFS PLUMES ARE STILL SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AND QPF MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BUT LOWERED THEM SOMEWHAT IN THE WEST AS THERE SEEMS TO
BE AN EASTWARD TREND. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL START THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEP US IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER THE REGION AS A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS TWO SFC LOWS CENTERS...WITH
ONE OVER CANADA AND THE OTHER OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MODELS DIG THE CANADIAN LOW SOUTHWARD. NOT A LOT OF
CERTAINTY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
COMING IN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. A FEW INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS NOTHING
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS SIMPLE. THE TEMPS WILL BE CONTINUING DOWNWARD
TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INITIAL UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION...WITH AN ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PATTERN WILL SHIFT
TO A WEST COAST RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH SET UP...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
IFR STRATUS IS BURNING OFF AT ALL TAF SITES THIS HOUR.
THIS AFTN WILL BE VFR WITH SE WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE
VALLEY AND WEST. THIS EVENING A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WITH SHRA MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA. PROLONGED IFR
CONDITIONS IN BJI AND POSSIBLY TVF DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS AND DELAYED NW WINDS. ELSEWHERE BY EARLY MORNING NW WINDS
WILL HELP CIGS LIFT AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/TG
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
945 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
MANY AREAS FROM VALLEY EAST STILL SHOWING VSBY AT A 1/4 MILE OR
BLO SO HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO NOON FROM IMMEDIATE
VALLEY EASTWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE. SITES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG SUCH AS GRAFTON AND VALLEY CITY HAD IMPROVED TO MORE THAN
6 MILES VISIBILITY EARLIER...BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE GONE BACK DOWN
AGAIN. DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACCORDING TO WEB CAMS AND
OBS SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 15Z AT
LEAST WITH NO CHANGES TO THE COUNTY CONFIGURATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
CLOUD COVER TODAY AND PRECIP MOVING IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL
BE THE MAIN PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN EDGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING. MAY
TRIM OFF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
6 TO 7 AM UPDATE THIS MORNING...EXACTLY HOW MANY TO BE DETERMINED.
THE RAP KEEPS HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM IS A BIT FASTER
IN DRYING THINGS OUT. DID NOT GO QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE
RAP...BUT HAVE SOME CLOUDS HANGING OUT A BIT LONGER TODAY...AND
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY. DO THINK WE WILL
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AND WITH 925MB TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOW
TEENS...UPPER 50S TO SOME MID 60S IN THE FAR WEST WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING OFF OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AND INTO THE CWA. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND
BY THIS EVENING AND MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY SETTING UP JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER BY TOMORROW
MORNING. MANY OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE FAIRLY HEALTHY QPF
VALUES...SO SOME DECENT RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY. WITH NEGATIVE
SHOWALTERS FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION...BUT THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE RAIN. THINK
THAT SEVERAL TENTHS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HALF AN INCH BY MORNING
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS/SFC BOUNDARY STALLS OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA...MOST LIKELY NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SET UP OF THE SYSTEM AND
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. THE NAM HAS OVER AN INCH OF QPF
JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER WHILE THE GFS IS MOSTLY OUT OF THE CWA
BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECWMF AS ALSO BEEN TRENDING A BIT FURTHER
EAST WITH THE PRECIP BAND SET UP. GEFS PLUMES ARE STILL SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AND QPF MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BUT LOWERED THEM SOMEWHAT IN THE WEST AS THERE SEEMS TO
BE AN EASTWARD TREND. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL START THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEP US IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER THE REGION AS A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS TWO SFC LOWS CENTERS...WITH
ONE OVER CANADA AND THE OTHER OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MODELS DIG THE CANADIAN LOW SOUTHWARD. NOT A LOT OF
CERTAINTY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
COMING IN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. A FEW INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS NOTHING
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS SIMPLE. THE TEMPS WILL BE CONTINUING DOWNWARD
TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INITIAL UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION...WITH AN ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PATTERN WILL SHIFT
TO A WEST COAST RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH SET UP...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
POOR VIS CONTINUES AT ALL BUT KDVL...AND THAT VERY LOW IFR TREND
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VIS DURING THE 14 TO 17Z TIME FRAME...WITH
STRATUS CLOUDS HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER IN THE EAST. THINK
THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE TAF
SITES GOING RIGHT BACK IN THE SOUP AFTER SUNSET...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SOME PRECIP MOVING IN. FOR
NOW HAVE VIS GOING DOWN TO THE 3-5SM RANGE WITH BR IN THE EVENING
AND THEN -RA LATER IN THE NIGHT AS A BAND OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND GUST ABOVE 20 KTS IN SOME PLACES THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-027-030-
039-053.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/TG
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
649 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE. SITES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG SUCH AS GRAFTON AND VALLEY CITY HAD IMPROVED TO MORE THAN
6 MILES VISIBILITY EARLIER...BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE GONE BACK DOWN
AGAIN. DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACCORDING TO WEB CAMS AND
OBS SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 15Z AT
LEAST WITH NO CHANGES TO THE COUNTY CONFIGURATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
CLOUD COVER TODAY AND PRECIP MOVING IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL
BE THE MAIN PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN EDGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING. MAY
TRIM OFF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
6 TO 7 AM UPDATE THIS MORNING...EXACTLY HOW MANY TO BE DETERMINED.
THE RAP KEEPS HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM IS A BIT FASTER
IN DRYING THINGS OUT. DID NOT GO QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE
RAP...BUT HAVE SOME CLOUDS HANGING OUT A BIT LONGER TODAY...AND
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY. DO THINK WE WILL
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AND WITH 925MB TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOW
TEENS...UPPER 50S TO SOME MID 60S IN THE FAR WEST WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING OFF OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AND INTO THE CWA. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND
BY THIS EVENING AND MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY SETTING UP JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER BY TOMORROW
MORNING. MANY OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE FAIRLY HEALTHY QPF
VALUES...SO SOME DECENT RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY. WITH NEGATIVE
SHOWALTERS FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION...BUT THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE RAIN. THINK
THAT SEVERAL TENTHS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HALF AN INCH BY MORNING
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS/SFC BOUNDARY STALLS OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA...MOST LIKELY NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SET UP OF THE SYSTEM AND
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. THE NAM HAS OVER AN INCH OF QPF
JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER WHILE THE GFS IS MOSTLY OUT OF THE CWA
BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECWMF AS ALSO BEEN TRENDING A BIT FURTHER
EAST WITH THE PRECIP BAND SET UP. GEFS PLUMES ARE STILL SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AND QPF MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BUT LOWERED THEM SOMEWHAT IN THE WEST AS THERE SEEMS TO
BE AN EASTWARD TREND. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL START THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEP US IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER THE REGION AS A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS TWO SFC LOWS CENTERS...WITH
ONE OVER CANADA AND THE OTHER OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MODELS DIG THE CANADIAN LOW SOUTHWARD. NOT A LOT OF
CERTAINTY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
COMING IN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. A FEW INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS NOTHING
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS SIMPLE. THE TEMPS WILL BE CONTINUING DOWNWARD
TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INITIAL UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION...WITH AN ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PATTERN WILL SHIFT
TO A WEST COAST RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH SET UP...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
POOR VIS CONTINUES AT ALL BUT KDVL...AND THAT VERY LOW IFR TREND
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VIS DURING THE 14 TO 17Z TIME FRAME...WITH
STRATUS CLOUDS HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER IN THE EAST. THINK
THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE TAF
SITES GOING RIGHT BACK IN THE SOUP AFTER SUNSET...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SOME PRECIP MOVING IN. FOR
NOW HAVE VIS GOING DOWN TO THE 3-5SM RANGE WITH BR IN THE EVENING
AND THEN -RA LATER IN THE NIGHT AS A BAND OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND GUST ABOVE 20 KTS IN SOME PLACES THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ008-016-
027-029-030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/TG
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
CLOUD COVER TODAY AND PRECIP MOVING IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL
BE THE MAIN PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN EDGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING. MAY
TRIM OFF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
6 TO 7 AM UPDATE THIS MORNING...EXACTLY HOW MANY TO BE DETERMINED.
THE RAP KEEPS HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM IS A BIT FASTER
IN DRYING THINGS OUT. DID NOT GO QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE
RAP...BUT HAVE SOME CLOUDS HANGING OUT A BIT LONGER TODAY...AND
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY. DO THINK WE WILL
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AND WITH 925MB TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOW
TEENS...UPPER 50S TO SOME MID 60S IN THE FAR WEST WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING OFF OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AND INTO THE CWA. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND
BY THIS EVENING AND MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY SETTING UP JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER BY TOMORROW
MORNING. MANY OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE FAIRLY HEALTHY QPF
VALUES...SO SOME DECENT RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY. WITH NEGATIVE
SHOWALTERS FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION...BUT THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE RAIN. THINK
THAT SEVERAL TENTHS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HALF AN INCH BY MORNING
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS/SFC BOUNDARY STALLS OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA...MOST LIKELY NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SET UP OF THE SYSTEM AND
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. THE NAM HAS OVER AN INCH OF QPF
JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER WHILE THE GFS IS MOSTLY OUT OF THE CWA
BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECWMF AS ALSO BEEN TRENDING A BIT FURTHER
EAST WITH THE PRECIP BAND SET UP. GEFS PLUMES ARE STILL SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AND QPF MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BUT LOWERED THEM SOMEWHAT IN THE WEST AS THERE SEEMS TO
BE AN EASTWARD TREND. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL START THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEP US IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER THE REGION AS A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS TWO SFC LOWS CENTERS...WITH
ONE OVER CANADA AND THE OTHER OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MODELS DIG THE CANADIAN LOW SOUTHWARD. NOT A LOT OF
CERTAINTY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
COMING IN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. A FEW INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS NOTHING
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS SIMPLE. THE TEMPS WILL BE CONTINUING DOWNWARD
TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INITIAL UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION...WITH AN ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PATTERN WILL SHIFT
TO A WEST COAST RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH SET UP...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
IFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF EASTERN ND. MANY SITES HAD 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY AND 2 HUNDRED FT
CIGS IN THE IFR AREA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST
MN AND SOUTHEAST ND. FOG MAY DISSIPATE STARTING IN THE EASTERN ZONES
MON MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ008-016-
027-029-030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/TG
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
330 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE CROSSING INTO THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR/LOWERING DEW POINTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT LOBE OVER CENTRAL KY. MODELS SHOW THIS
FEATURE GRADUALLY LOSING STEAM AS IT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. HAVE SOME UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPE LOOKS TO MAX OUT AT AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT IS A
FAIRLY SKINNY PROFILE. HOWEVER...COMBINE THAT WITH A FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 9000FT AGL...SOME SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY TALLER STORMS. FLOW IS NOT OVERLY STRONG... 35-40KTS AT 700MB
AND 500MB... BUT WE DO HAVE A WEAK INVERTED V AND POCKET OF DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER CELLS. BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY MARGINAL -- AROUND 35KTS -- SO EXPECT INDIVIDUAL CELLS TO BE
RATHER UNORGANIZED AND MAYBE PULSE-Y IN NATURE.
WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...HAVE AN AREA OF HIGH POPS TRANSITIONING
ACROSS CWA FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELIED FAIRLY
HEAVILY ON THE HI-RES NAM AND HRRR FOR TIMING OF THE HIGHEST POPS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE 1-1.2 IN...WHICH SHOULD NOT CREATE
ANY WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS. HAVE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTH. WITH MIDDLE ISLAND CREEK AND DUCK CREEK CONTINUING TO RUN
HIGH...AND A BULLSEYE OF LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WILL LEAVE THE
FLOOD WATCH AS IS. PRECIP WILL BE COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH NO COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LOW STRATUS
AND SOME VALLEY FOG BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
USED A BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND ECMWF MOS FOR HIGHS WHICH
DID NOT RESULT IN ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. A MAV/MET BLEND
FOR LOWS TONIGHT TRENDED A TOUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS IN THE MIDWEST...IOWA AND ILLINOIS...NEAR 00Z
WEDNESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD MICHIGAN BY 06Z AND AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z WED. MEANWHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS ONLY FALL SLOWLY
HERE.
SO NOT IMPRESSED WITH SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. STILL
HAVE FRONT SWEEPING EAST. FIGURING REACHING TOWARD CRW AROUND 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN EXITING MOUNTAINS BY 15Z. DESPITE LACK OF
MID LEVEL SUPPORT...CONSIDERING AIR MASS WE ARE STILL IN...AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WILL STILL LEAVE SOME 20 TO 40 POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.
WESTERLY FLOW OF LOWERING DEW POINTS AND FRESHER AIR ADVECTING OUR
WAY...DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN FAST FLOW SOUTH OF THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HAVE MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN COULD NOT GO MORE THAN 20 TO 40 POPS.
CONSIDERING 850 TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND PLUS 1 C...LOWERED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND EVEN MENTIONED A POSSIBILITY FOR THOSE POPS OF R-S-
AOA 4000 FEET.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET WX WILL GREET FOLKS ENDING THE WORK WEEK WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS. WE STILL ENVISION A PATTERN CHANGE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL ESTABLISH A MEAN EASTERN US TROF THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
AND MORE SPECIFICALLY IF A CONSOLIDATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
FORM ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT SOME CHILLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH. HAVE MVFR WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TIMED OUT TO EACH TAF SITE. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EVENTUALLY AMEND TO
ADD IFR TEMPOS AS THE STORMS APPROACH...BUT WITH CURRENT BROKEN
LINE FELT IT BETTER TO LEAVE IFR OUT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOW STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG. RELIED FAIRLY
HEAVILY ON A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM THIS MORNING...FOR TOMORROW
MORNING...AND PUT IFR FOG AT EKN. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO OTHER
SITES EVENTUALLY. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD BE SLOW TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED TEMPOS FOR IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ009>011-017-019-020-
031-032-040.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30/26
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
205 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE CROSSING INTO THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT LOBE OVER CENTRAL KY. MODELS SHOW THIS
FEATURE GRADUALLY LOSING STEAM AS IT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. HAVE SOME UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPE LOOKS TO MAX OUT AT AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT IS A
FAIRLY SKINNY PROFILE. HOWEVER...COMBINE THAT WITH A FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 9000FT AGL...SOME SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY TALLER STORMS. FLOW IS NOT OVERLY STRONG... 35-40KTS AT 700MB
AND 500MB... BUT WE DO HAVE A WEAK INVERTED V AND POCKET OF DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER CELLS. BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY MARGINAL -- AROUND 35KTS -- SO EXPECT INDIVIDUAL CELLS TO BE
RATHER UNORGANIZED AND MAYBE PULSE-Y IN NATURE.
WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...HAVE AN AREA OF HIGH POPS TRANSITIONING
ACROSS CWA FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELIED FAIRLY
HEAVILY ON THE HI-RES NAM AND HRRR FOR TIMING OF THE HIGHEST POPS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE 1-1.2 IN...WHICH SHOULD NOT CREATE
ANY WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS. HAVE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTH. WITH MIDDLE ISLAND CREEK AND DUCK CREEK CONTINUING TO RUN
HIGH...AND A BULLSEYE OF LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WILL LEAVE THE
FLOOD WATCH AS IS. PRECIP WILL BE COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH NO COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LOW STRATUS
AND SOME VALLEY FOG BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
USED A BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND ECMWF MOS FOR HIGHS WHICH
DID NOT RESULT IN ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. A MAV/MET BLEND
FOR LOWS TONIGHT TRENDED A TOUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE HEADING INTO MID WEEK.
WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH IT...ANOTHER WEDGE
OF WARM LOW LEVEL AIR AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. OPERATIONAL
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
ACCORDING TO WPC...THE ENSEMBLES AND THEIR MEANS DO NOT HELP MATTERS
MUCH EITHER. ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF
THIS FEATURE...AND WOULD MAKE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT A MORE
SIGNIFICANT PLAYER AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS IN TERMS OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION. NAM IS SLOWER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH TO PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH...THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE BETTER DEFORMATION IN ITS
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED
TO ITS APEX PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOWS
SHOULD STACK AT SOME POINT...AND COULD SEE A SHEARED VORT MAX IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW FILLS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WARM AIR WILL END
UP PINNED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL SET UP AN OVERALL
COOLING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM SPRING WX OF RECENT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK TO A
COOL SEASON SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A MEAN LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN US BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH QUIET WX GENERALLY THRU FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN CHANGE MAY BE USHERED IN BY A EASTERN STORM
SYSTEM WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH CHILLY RAIN ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH. HAVE MVFR WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TIMED OUT TO EACH TAF SITE. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EVENTUALLY AMEND TO
ADD IFR TEMPOS AS THE STORMS APPROACH...BUT WITH CURRENT BROKEN
LINE FELT IT BETTER TO LEAVE IFR OUT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOW STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG. RELIED FAIRLY
HEAVILY ON A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM THIS MORNING...FOR TOMORROW
MORNING...AND PUT IFR FOG AT EKN. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO OTHER
SITES EVENTUALLY. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD BE SLOW TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED TEMPOS FOR IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ009>011-017-019-020-
031-032-040.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30/26
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
836 PM PDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.UPDATE...AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OFFSHORE THIS EVENING
AND A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW IS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
RADAR IS SHOWING STEADILY DIMINISHING RETURNS, MAINLY OVER THE
CASCADES, THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS. ADDITIONALLY, THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RUC MODELS ARE NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE CUT
BACK ON THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WAVE COMING ASHORE LATER TONIGHT HEADING FOR
THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. HAVE LEFT A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THOSE AREAS AND TRIMMED BACK
ON PRECIP ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A DEGREE
OR SO. MADE SOME MINOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY OUT. PERRY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM PDT TUE MAR 15 2016/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE U.S. WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS SUCH, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. INITIALLY THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST RESULTING IN
VARYING COVERAGES OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWER CHANCES
OVER OUR OREGON ZONES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS
WILL RUN BETWEEN 1500 AND 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, THUS EXPECT 2 INCHES OR LESS
SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL DRY OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THUS WILL SEE THE SHOWER CHANCES END WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST
LOCATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER
DUE TO CLEARER CONDITIONS. 90
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT COOLER...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EACH DAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
AT THIS POINT WE START TO BRING POPS BACK INTO THE MIX AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO SPIN MOISTURE BACK TO
THE AREA. THIS IS BASED ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION...HOWEVER THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST ABOUT A 24-36 DELAY IN THE TROUGH...AND
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AIR. CURRENTLY ALL MODELS AGREE THAT BY MONDAY
WE CAN EXPECT INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND SNOW LEVELS DOWN
AROUND 4-5KFT. WEBER
AVIATION...00Z TAFS...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE ARE A FEW PROB GROUPS FOR KALW...KPDT...AND KDLS
FROM 16/12-16/21Z THAT MIGHT PROVIDE MVFR CIG`S/VIS. WINDS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10KTS...BUT MAY GUST TO 20KTS OUT OF THE WSW OVER THE
NEXT 6-9 HOURS...BUT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KTS THEREAFTER. CIGS WILL
MAINLY BE BKN/OVC WITH THE BASES AROUND 5-10KFT...BUT COULD HAVE
SOME LOWER BASES AFTER 16/12Z. KDLS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WINDS
GUSTING 20-25KTS AFTER 16/21Z. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 34 51 30 51 / 20 30 0 0
ALW 37 52 34 54 / 20 20 0 0
PSC 35 54 30 55 / 10 10 0 0
YKM 30 55 26 54 / 10 10 0 0
HRI 35 54 28 55 / 20 10 0 0
ELN 30 51 28 51 / 10 0 0 0
RDM 29 49 23 51 / 20 20 0 0
LGD 31 48 28 50 / 30 30 10 10
GCD 31 49 25 49 / 30 20 10 0
DLS 38 55 34 55 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
83/89/89
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
244 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AFTER A BRIEF BOUT OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE RISE AFTER 12Z...AS A
FAST MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING ALONG THE PLATEAU...AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS BY THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOOK AT
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE TO WORK
WITH AT KTYS AND KTRI DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE
FORM OF SINGLE AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING ALONG THE
PLATEAU AROUND 15-16Z...AND SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH 21-22Z INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS
PARTICULARLY SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL AS THE STORM MODE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUNDINGS AT KCHA...KTYS AND KTRI ALSO EXHIBIT AN
INVERTED-V PROFILE DURING THE AFTERNOON...INDICATING A DOWNBURST
AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE PRESENCE OF SOME COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND A LOWER MELTING LEVEL/WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT WILL ALSO
GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS
WELL. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
KNOXVILLE. HOWEVER...A MARGINAL THREAT DOES EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
DECREASE AS THE IMPULSE RACES EAST...ALSO COINCIDING WITH LESSENED
INSTABILITY VALUES. THUS...THE THUNDER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY A
22-00Z TIMEFRAME. THEREAFTER...PRECIPITATION WILL WANE AND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. LOWS
WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY IN TO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK APPROACHES AND 850MB
JET MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING QUICKLY TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...LIMITING MOISTURE FOR THE
BOUNDARY. SO NOT EXPECTING MANY...IF ANY...RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA. WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE DAY.
THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
TN VALLEY TO BE IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS
ARE IN BAFFLING DISAGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. GFS WANTS
TO TAKE A WEAK DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND LEAVE FRIDAY DRY. ECMWF AND CANADIAN WANT TO LEAVE
THURSDAY DRY...AND TAKE THE DISTURBANCE THROUGH ON FRIDAY IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND EAST TN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE CHAOTIC THOUGH LIGHT
WINDS...AND LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LIFT...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE FOR THE AREA WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO AGREE AGAIN WITH A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE U.S. SOUTHERN FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF LIFT AND STRONG WINDS SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FLOW THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
THE NW AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHEAR SATURDAY EVENING IS
HIGH AND PW VALUES ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COULD SEE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT OF COURSE TOO
EARLY TO SAY MUCH DETAILS WITH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH EACH DAY A
LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE. ONCE THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
CUT OFF...TEMPS WILL APPROACH NORMAL BY FRIDAY...BECOMING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEEP TROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 50 81 54 / 70 10 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 52 79 54 / 80 20 0 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 52 78 54 / 80 20 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 70 51 74 51 / 80 40 10 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AMP/JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
648 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...THE HRRR AND NAM...FOR EXAMPLE...SHOW A DEFINITE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE LOWER VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH DAWN.
THIS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT CEILINGS...WHICH WILL DIVE TO IFR...BUT
WINDS WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE...ESPECIALLY IN FOG FORMATION. WINDS
WILL BACK SLIGHTLY...TURNING FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OR EAST AND
WEAKENING. THE GFS GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM WITH
A FEW HOURS OF DENSE FOG AROUND DAWN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
THIS TAF SET REFLECTS THE NOTED TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE SHORT TERM
WILL EXPERIENCE QUIET WEATHER WITH NO RAIN ANTICIPATED. MAIN
WEATHER ELEMENTS OF CONCERN WILL BE DAYTIME HAZE AND OVERNIGHT
EARLY MORNING FOG AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WEDNESDAY FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO KEEP ANY IMPACTS TO OUR
NORTH. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT HOWEVER WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH MUCH LESS WIND IN THE FORECAST THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM.
THE SEASONAL AGRICULTURAL BURNS HAVE STARTED IN SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH
THE SMOKE BEING DIRECTING NORTH INTO SOUTH TEXAS WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE SMOKE IS PRODUCING HAZY CONDITIONS AND MODERATE
TO POOR AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS. NOT UNTIL THE ANTICIPATED COLD
FRONT FRIDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...WILL THE AREA SEE ANY
REDUCTION IN THE HAZY CONDITIONS. THE HAZE WILL MIX DOWN AND COMBINE
WITH DEVELOPING FOG OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS
AND WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH ELEMENTS WILL
LOWER VISIBILITIES TO ABOUT 1 MILE OR LESS. THE SIGNAL AMONG THE
MODELS IS NOT DEFINITE ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH WINDS
NOT GOING COMPLETELY CALM. EXPECTING A LAYER OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP
WHICH MIGHT BE PRETTY LOW AND HANG IN MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING
UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING HELPS MIX THROUGH THE SURFACE INVERSION.
OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER...WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS RUNNING 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THEN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND THE CONTINUED THICKER CIRRUS REDUCING SOME OF THE
NEAR SPRING EQUINOX HEATING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...FRONT BEGINNING TO SAG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY...WITH SOUTHWARD MOTION SLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
FRONT LOOKS TO BRIEFLY STALL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THROUGH ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POP CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD...PUSHED BY SFC HIGH BEHIND IT. LATER WEEKEND EVENTS ARE
INCONSISTENT...AS THEY HINGE ON LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE NC
COAST. SLOWER MODELS DEVELOP THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH
IN TURN HELPS THE SFC RIDGE DIG FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH
TEXAS...PUSHING MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION. FASTER MODELS HAVE THE
LOW DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA...WHICH IN TURN DRAG THE SFC
HIGH MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY...KEEPING
THE FRONT REMNANTS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE. USING A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD FORECAST...WHICH CURRENTLY COINCIDES WITH A ECMWF
SOLUTION...THE DRIER AIR DOES BRIEFLY ARRIVE SUNDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. HAVE KEPT SMALL POP CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY BEFORE LOWERING THEM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
PULLING UP STATIONARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECT TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE
FLOW BECOMES MODERATE TONIGHT AND LOW TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY. SEAS TO
STEADILY RESPOND SUBSIDING A FOOT OR TWO OVER INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
54/19/65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
217 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM WITH DRIER WEATHER
INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 813 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE VORT AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPENING UPPER SYSTEM THAT
HAS LIFTED BY TO THE WEST WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY ENHANCE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST HRRR WHICH ORGANIZES CURRENT CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND SHIFTS IT EAST INTO THE VA PIEDMONT BY
MIDNIGHT. LATEST ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS WAVE DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING SO SOME
ADDED SURFACE BASED TSRA THREAT AS WELL GIVEN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA ATTM. THUS UPPED POPS BACK TO
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY ESPCLY OVER THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EXIT OUT EAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE INCREASED FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ONCE
CONVECTION FADES AND BUMPED UP LOWS GIVEN SATURATION. APPEARS ONLY
EASTERN LOCATIONS THAT SLIP BACK INTO THE WEDGE WILL SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE FALLS OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 325 PM EST SUNDAY...
EXPECT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG A LINE FROM GREENBRIER COUNTY SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHSIDE VA TO MOVE STEADILY NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
DUSK. THIS IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE IN MID LEVELS AND SOME
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LVLS. MODELS ARE KEEPING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT SO IN TURN WILL AT LEAST KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING BUT THINK IT WILL TURN INTO MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR
NOTHING SCENARIO WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG FORMING. QUESTION OVERNIGHT
WILL BE HOW MUCH WEDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF...AND NAM IS USUALLY
BETTER THAN GFS/ECMWF WITH HOW STRONG THE WEDGE/STABLE AIR MOVES
BACK. GIVEN THIS WILL SEE THE WEDGE REACH A LEWISBURG TO NEW RIVER
VALLEY/BLACKSBURG LINE BY 12Z...EDGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
PATRICK/SURRY COUNTY AREAS THEN EAST ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. TEMPS
OVERALL SHOULD STAY MILD IN THE 50S.
THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THOUGH MODELS STILL LINGER STABLE AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA FROM HOT SPRINGS TO LYNCHBURG THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER THETA-E RIDGING INTO THE SW
BY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF ON TIMING OF
CONVECTION...BUT HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS FIRING UP FURTHER SOUTH INTO NC BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE MAIN LINE WITH THE FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE MTNS BY 4 PM. AM NOT
SEEING A LOT OF SUNSHINE MONDAY...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-
1500 J/KG SLIDING INTO THE NC/VA BORDER AREA. WITH COOLING
HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD SEE A
THREAT OF HAIL...AND SOME ISOLATED STRONG WINDS. WILL HAVE TO ALSO
BE WARY OF THE WEDGE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY WITH SOME
TURNING/HELICITY INCREASING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS
HIGHLIGHTING MORE OF A HAIL THREAT MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE NC/VA
BORDER LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. FURTHER
NORTH THE THREAT IS MARGINAL TO NON-EXISTENT FOR SVR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
THINK THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH LOWER
CLOUDS AND FOG DISPERSING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA THEN SCOURING OUT
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE ALLEGHANYS TO NORTHEAST PIEDMONT NEAR LYH.
HIGHS WILL BE MILD WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. LOOK FOR LOWER TO MID
60S WHERE WEDGE HOLDS THE LONGEST...HOT
SPRINGS...LYNCHBURG...BUCKINGHAM...TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SUNSET THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL ALSO END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE
FEATURE EXITS THE FORECAST AREA...INSTABILITY WANING AND SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHEST POPS/QPF SHOULD PLAY OUT
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED.
ONCE THE DEEP CONVECTION EXITS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA...AND EVEN THIS THREAT WILL END LATER TUESDAY
MORNING. LITTLE OR NO AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM...SO ONCE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY LOOK FOR A QUICK REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE PROMINENT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH COULD SPREAD A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES FROM WATAUGA THROUGH GREENBRIER COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING SO...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WAS PLACED IN THIS AREA
FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH EVEN LOWER 80S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC.
THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BEGIN THE TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS THICKNESSES BEGIN TO FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EST SUNDAY...
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
FOR MID WEEK IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP INTO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL CHEW AWAY
AT THE RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...A TREND TOWARD COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE AIRMASS
TRANSITION THURSDAY...SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATING A DISTINCT
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY
EVENING...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW A FRAGMENTED TRANSITION AND
HAVE LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP.
ATTM WILL HIGHLIGHT THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT KEEP POPS
BLO 50 PERCENT UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE A DEEPER FEED OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT.
PASSAGE OF THURSDAYS FRONT WILL THEN BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SINKING BACK TO
NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL PENDING HOW MUCH INFLUENCE WE GET FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE MONITORING THIS
BOUNDARY FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
STREAKING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW TO AMPLIFY WITH WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THEN TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER THIS HAPPENS EARLY VS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ATTM HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT MODEL ACCURACY IS PLUS OR MINUS 12-24
HOURS AT THAT TIME FRAME SO ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE MADE AS
MODEL TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISH. BOTTOM LINE...PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDY AND WET.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM EDT SUNDAY...
LIFR/IFR FOG IS AFFECTING BCB AND LWB AT THIS HOUR DUE TO THE
MOIST GROUND AND RECENT RAINFALL...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BEFORE DAWN ON MONDAY MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AREA...BUT THESE SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
BY MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH MVFR/IFR BY NOON. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SWING OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY...AND SPARK A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST AT LYH
FOR ANY CONVECTION DUE TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...SO THUNDER
WAS NOT INSERTED THERE. ELSEWHERE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MAY ARISE
DURING THE STORMS...AND HAIL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND DECENT INSTABILITY. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS MAY LOWER AGAIN
TO MVFR/IFR BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLE FOG
FORMATION FROM THE WET GROUND.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR DURING TUESDAY FOR
BCB/ROA/LYH/DAN...BUT SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS MAY KEEP CONDITIONS AT MVFR FOR BLF AND LWB UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE VFR...BUT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH BLF AND LWB BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS...MORE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW GOOD FLYING WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY APPEAR GENERALLY DRY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1116 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016
AN ACTIVE FEW DAYS UPCOMING WITH STRONG WINDS...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND FALLING TEMPERATURES RETURNING. ALL OF THESE ARE
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THRU MONDAY. 20Z SATELLITE PIX SHOW WELL DEFINED UPPER-
LOW JUST SPINNING ONSHORE THE PACNW WITH A MIDLVL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC ON THE NOSE OF A WHAT THE
LATEST MDCARS OBS DEPICT IS A 130+ KNOT JET. AT ITS CURRENT RATE
OF SPEED...MODELS PROG THIS JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO
ARRIVE TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY. THIS JET STREAK HAS A GREAT TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CARBON COUNTY
AS EARLY AS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. SNOW RATES DONT REALLY GETTING GOING OVR THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES UNTIL AFTER 3 AM. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLY STRONG LLVL FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNOW RATES ALONG THE WEST
SLOPE. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVR THESE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON MONDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
THINK THAT 7-14 WILL COVER THIS EVENT...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
WESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM IN THESE MOUNTAINS...
SO HAVE OPTED WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NT. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT OF
GENERALLY OF LESS THAN ONE INCH OR SO.
THE OTHER STORY OF THIS EVENT WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD WITH WIND SPEEDS MAINLY POST
FRONTAL IN THIS BORA EVENT. LATEST LLVL GRADIENTS EXCEED CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW. GIVEN THIS...AM
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE ARLINGTON
AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY AREAS WHERE GUSTS OF UP TO 65 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY GET INTO THE SUMMIT MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY GIVEN THE STRONG POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE. HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH THERE. OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR THESE AREAS MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO
TUESDAY...EXPECT RATES TO BE MUCH LESS. WHAT WILL BE MORE
NOTICEABLE ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL
BE 10-15F LESS COMPARED TO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS
AND COLD TEMPS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER THO.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016
CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK TO THE EAST. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL WITH HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS EACH
DAY THROUGH FRI. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A BROAD SWATH OF
30 TO 40 KNOT FLOW AT H7-H8...AS WELL AS CAG-CPR GRADIENTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 METERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL
BE WED NIGHT AND THU WITH THE MODELS SHOWING THE BULK OF VORT ENERGY
OVERHEAD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
H7 TEMPS BETWEEN -10 AND -20 DEG C. A WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KRWL AS PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THEIR AREA LATER THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING
SNOW DEVELOPING OUT THERE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KRWL...KLAR AND KCYS
MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016
RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CARBON COUNTY THIS EVENING AND CHANGE TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EAST THROUGH THE
DISTRICTS ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY WHERE WIND PRONE AREAS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 55
MPH. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ112-114.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ106-110.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
418 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW STATIONED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY IN SPITE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF RECENT TRENDS AND WARMING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE TODAY. LOWS USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR CAE
MARCH 16: 88F SET IN 1921
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AGS
MARCH 16: 88F SET IN 1921
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FALLING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL SIGNAL COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS
AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE CONSISTENT SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THERE REMAINED LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BECAUSE OF MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATED A HIGH SPREAD.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD POPS 20 TO 70 PERCENT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING THE HIGHER VALUES. WE HAVE
CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOLLOWING AN
AVERAGE OF THE MOS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MOS INDICATED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODELS AGREE ON DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE
STRATUS THIS MORNING AT AGS/DNL.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR A
NARROW BAND OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE CSRA. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS STRATUS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA. HRRR DATA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHERN GA INTO THE CSRA NEAR DAYBREAK.
MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT REALLY SHOWING ANY RESTRICTIONS BUT TIMING OF
THE STRATUS MOVING NORTHWARD PUTS IT AT AGS/DNL AROUND 11Z-12Z AND
EXPECT IT TO LINGER THROUGH 14Z OR SO. RESTRICTIONS NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT CAE/CUB/OGB. LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KNOTS OBSERVED ON
KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE WHICH IS KEEP DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HIGH AND
PREVENTING POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP SCATTER OUT
THE LOW STRATUS BY LATE MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
148 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DRY WEATHER WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TODAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF RECENT TRENDS AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR CAE
MARCH 16: 88F SET IN 1921
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AGS
MARCH 16: 88F SET IN 1921
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS INDICATED DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH THURSDAY.
FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE CONSISTENT SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THERE REMAINED LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BECAUSE OF MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. COMPARED TO THE GFS THE ECMWF HAS DISPLAYED
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATED A HIGH SPREAD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD POPS
20 TO 70 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING
THE HIGHER VALUES. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAYS FOLLOWING AN AVERAGE OF THE MOS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE MOS INDICATED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING AT AGS/DNL.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR A
NARROW BAND OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE CSRA. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS STRATUS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA. HRRR DATA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHERN GA INTO THE CSRA NEAR DAYBREAK.
MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT REALLY SHOWING ANY RESTRICTIONS BUT TIMING OF
THE STRATUS MOVING NORTHWARD PUTS IT AT AGS/DNL AROUND 11Z-12Z AND
EXPECT IT TO LINGER THROUGH 14Z OR SO. RESTRICTIONS NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT CAE/CUB/OGB. LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KNOTS OBSERVED ON
KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE WHICH IS KEEP DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HIGH AND
PREVENTING POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP SCATTER OUT
THE LOW STRATUS BY LATE MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...
320 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PROPAGATING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY PER GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS FOR MID-
MARCH... CHARACTERIZED BY AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS OF 55-60 INTO CENTRAL IL/WEST CENTRAL IN INCLUDING
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE WFO LOT CWA. WHILE SURFACE FLOW IS BACKED
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM
FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROXIMATELY NEAR A GALESBURG-PONTIAC-
LAFAYETTE LINE. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE WAS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL IL...WITH
SPC RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH CIN WEAKENING TO 100 J/KG OR LESS. DYNAMICS ARE BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AS WELL WITH APPROACH OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL WAVE...WITH 60 KT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AND
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 200-300 M2S2 IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTS INCREASING CU
FIELD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI...WHERE STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND HAS BEEN INDICATED BY HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. ENVIRONMENT
PRIMED FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND RECENT SPC MCD INDICATES
TORNADO WATCH LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN THE ENHANCED
RISK AREA TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. BASED ON HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...EVOLUTION STILL APPEARS TO BE INITIATION 22-23Z TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST... WITH STORMS THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 7-8 PM. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELLULAR STORMS
MOVING INTO THE CWA INITIALLY WITH OUR IL COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-80 LIKELY UNDER THE HIGHEST RISK. WIND AND TORNADO
THREAT...WHILE NOT ZERO...WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE CHICAGO METRO WITH SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH GRADUAL DIURNAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST HOWEVER ALL THE WAY TO
LAKE MICHIGAN AND OUR EASTERN CWA COUNTIES AND STORMS ARRIVE IN
THE 9-10 PM TIME FRAME AND LAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN AND ITS STRONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE IL/WI BORDER REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGH-
BASED INSTABILITY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE WISCONSIN
BORDER WITH DEEP ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING IN SPEED AND BECOMING GUSTY TO
40-45 MPH BY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
VERY DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 500-600 MB WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO/ABOVE 50 MPH BY MIDDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN IL... WITH THE GRADIENT A BIT WEAKER TO THE SOUTH. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE STRONGER GFS WINDS MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE WITH BEST PRESSURE R THIS MORNINGISES TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS WI...THOUGH ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS TO MAINTAIN OUR HIGH
WIND WATCH ACROSS COUNTIES GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80. HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
(SUSTAINED 40 MPH /GUSTS 58 MPH). WITH GUSTY WINDS MODELS ARE
LIKELY TOO QUICK TO DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY
SEE WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
WITH GOOD MIXING...HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
TONIGHT...MID TO UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
244 PM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A STEADY COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE REVERSING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COLDEST DAY TIME TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF THAT. THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY ALLOWING
THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE U.P.
OF MICHIGAN TO QUICKLY WEAKEN. THIS WILL LEAVE A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. WEAK ENERGY WILL
MOVE DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH WHILE A DEEPER UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS QUEBEC WHICH THEN RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
AID IN THE SHARPENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMNANT FROM THE OLD
GREAT LAKES LOW THEN DRAW IT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY
SATURDAY. A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR EARLY BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S CHANGES ANYTHING TO RAIN INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SIGNAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. THE UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS EAST INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS SHARP RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW AS THE TROUGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND RIDGING CONTINUES WEST. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW PERHAPS LEADING
TO MINIMAL POPS CHANCES MONDAY. THE RIDGING WILL SHARPEN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE AT PRECIP. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. MID NEXT WEEK AND
A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST BUT DETAILS DIFFER QUITE A BIT. A
TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME DOES LOOK
FAVORED FOR MID WEEK.
MDB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF
50 TO 55 MPH. WITH SUN EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
POSSIBLY ALL DAY IN PLACES...MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY TO DIP
TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. RAINFALL TONIGHT IN ADDITION TO EXISTING FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 15 PERCENT SHOULD PREVENT TRUE RED
FLAG CRITERIA...BUT BREEZY AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AT
LEAST BE NEAR THRESHOLDS...AND WITH THE DEEPER MIXING 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES COULD NEAR 10 PERCENT IF AREAS...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH OF THE CHICAGO AREA...ESCAPE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
MTF/KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
1219 AM...MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...
NORTH OF RFD. NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN IA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST IL THAT THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE IS LOW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN THE TEMPO FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
WIND SHIFT APPARENT ON RADAR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN KANE COUNTY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WILL COUNTY...WHICH MARKS THE WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS/GUSTS ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS SHIFT...THOUGH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DON/T LOOK AS STRONG OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS GUSTS
INTO THE 30KT RANGE. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO MIX LATER THIS
MORNING...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AND STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40 KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET. WIND DIRECTION APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
326 AM CDT
HEADLINES...HAVE A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE WATERS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE OVER THE NSH WATERS BY MID
MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE.
THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN WI WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING
GUSTS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 40-50 KT OVER LAND THIS MORNING AND
BLEED INTO THE NSH WATERS. THINKING THE AIR OVER THE OPEN WATERS IS
STABLE ENOUGH THAT ONLY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. GUSTS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW WEAKENS
OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE. HOWEVER...HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE
THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE
LAKE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND IT. THE
PATTERN THEN MELLOWS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE LAKES
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND AGAIN MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
WEDNESDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-
ILZ039...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...7 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9
AM WEDNESDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...9 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1219 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...
320 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PROPAGATING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY PER GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS FOR MID-
MARCH... CHARACTERIZED BY AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS OF 55-60 INTO CENTRAL IL/WEST CENTRAL IN INCLUDING
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE WFO LOT CWA. WHILE SURFACE FLOW IS BACKED
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM
FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROXIMATELY NEAR A GALESBURG-PONTIAC-
LAFAYETTE LINE. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE WAS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL IL...WITH
SPC RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH CIN WEAKENING TO 100 J/KG OR LESS. DYNAMICS ARE BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AS WELL WITH APPROACH OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL WAVE...WITH 60 KT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AND
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 200-300 M2S2 IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTS INCREASING CU
FIELD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI...WHERE STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND HAS BEEN INDICATED BY HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. ENVIRONMENT
PRIMED FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND RECENT SPC MCD INDICATES
TORNADO WATCH LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN THE ENHANCED
RISK AREA TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. BASED ON HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...EVOLUTION STILL APPEARS TO BE INITIATION 22-23Z TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST... WITH STORMS THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 7-8 PM. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELLULAR STORMS
MOVING INTO THE CWA INITIALLY WITH OUR IL COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-80 LIKELY UNDER THE HIGHEST RISK. WIND AND TORNADO
THREAT...WHILE NOT ZERO...WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE CHICAGO METRO WITH SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH GRADUAL DIURNAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST HOWEVER ALL THE WAY TO
LAKE MICHIGAN AND OUR EASTERN CWA COUNTIES AND STORMS ARRIVE IN
THE 9-10 PM TIME FRAME AND LAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN AND ITS STRONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE IL/WI BORDER REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGH-
BASED INSTABILITY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE WISCONSIN
BORDER WITH DEEP ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING IN SPEED AND BECOMING GUSTY TO
40-45 MPH BY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
VERY DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 500-600 MB WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO/ABOVE 50 MPH BY MIDDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN IL... WITH THE GRADIENT A BIT WEAKER TO THE SOUTH. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE STRONGER GFS WINDS MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WI...THOUGH
ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS TO MAINTAIN OUR HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS
COUNTIES GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80. HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
(SUSTAINED 40 MPH /GUSTS 58 MPH). WITH GUSTY WINDS MODELS ARE
LIKELY TOO QUICK TO DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY
SEE WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
WITH GOOD MIXING...HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
TONIGHT...MID TO UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
244 PM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A STEADY COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE REVERSING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COLDEST DAY TIME TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF THAT. THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY ALLOWING
THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE U.P.
OF MICHIGAN TO QUICKLY WEAKEN. THIS WILL LEAVE A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. WEAK ENERGY WILL
MOVE DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH WHILE A DEEPER UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS QUEBEC WHICH THEN RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
AID IN THE SHARPENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMNANT FROM THE OLD
GREAT LAKES LOW THEN DRAW IT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY
SATURDAY. A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR EARLY BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S CHANGES ANYTHING TO RAIN INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SIGNAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. THE UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS EAST INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS SHARP RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW AS THE TROUGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND RIDGING CONTINUES WEST. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW PERHAPS LEADING
TO MINIMAL POPS CHANCES MONDAY. THE RIDGING WILL SHARPEN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE AT PRECIP. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. MID NEXT WEEK AND
A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST BUT DETAILS DIFFER QUITE A BIT. A
TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME DOES LOOK
FAVORED FOR MID WEEK.
MDB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF
50 TO 55 MPH. WITH SUN EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
POSSIBLY ALL DAY IN PLACES...MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY TO DIP
TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. RAINFALL TONIGHT IN ADDITION TO EXISTING FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 15 PERCENT SHOULD PREVENT TRUE RED
FLAG CRITERIA...BUT BREEZY AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AT
LEAST BE NEAR THRESHOLDS...AND WITH THE DEEPER MIXING 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES COULD NEAR 10 PERCENT IF AREAS...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH OF THE CHICAGO AREA...ESCAPE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
MTF/KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
1219 AM...MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...
NORTH OF RFD. NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN IA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST IL THAT THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE IS LOW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN THE TEMPO FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
WIND SHIFT APPARENT ON RADAR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN KANE COUNTY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WILL COUNTY...WHICH MARKS THE WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS/GUSTS ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS SHIFT...THOUGH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DON/T LOOK AS STRONG OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS GUSTS
INTO THE 30KT RANGE. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO MIX LATER THIS
MORNING...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AND STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40 KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET. WIND DIRECTION APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
217 PM CDT
A STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WILL
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS (35 KT GALES)
LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY.
THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND. LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH DOWN
THE LAKE...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...7 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
HIGH WIND WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022...7 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
IN...HIGH WIND WATCH...INZ001-INZ002...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
WEDNESDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY.
STORM WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1204 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Deepening surface low now over west central Illinois this evening
with the warm front extending east southeast from the low over
central to southeast Illinois. Dew points have risen to around
60 degrees across our area this evening ahead of the strong low.
Strongest storms will continue to edge east northeast ahead of
the surface low for the rest of the evening. Tornado watch number
44 has been extended to 10 pm CDT and we may need to add some
counties further east over the next few hours as well. Updated
zone forecast with the new watch extension time will be out
in the next 10-15 minutes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 997mb low over northeast Missouri,
with a warm front extending E/SE across south-central Illinois.
Despite the presence of this forcing, convection has not yet
materialized across Missouri or Illinois as the atmosphere remains
capped. The short-wave trough that will eventually approach from
the west and break the cap is still well to the west across western
Kansas/Nebraska, so think cap will hold firm through the remainder
of the afternoon. HRRR has been consistently showing scattered
thunderstorms developing along the trailing cold front across
eastern Missouri after 21z/4pm...with the activity then tracking
E/NE into central Illinois this evening. 4km WRF-NMM has similar
timing, and both high-res models suggest the storms will quickly
shift out of the KILX CWA by midnight. Given strong directional low-
level wind shear in the vicinity of the warm front, the main mode of
any convection that develops later today will be supercellular. As
such, damaging wind gusts and large hail remain the primary
threats...although a few tornadoes will also be possible mainly
along and northwest of the I-55 corridor. Have therefore included
likely PoPs and mentioned severe weather across the western half of
the CWA this evening accordingly. Any convection that fires will
rapidly push eastward out of the area by midnight, with only a few
lingering rain showers across the NW from the Peoria area northward
after midnight. Once the storms pass, strong/gusty southwesterly
winds will develop, with forecast soundings and numeric guidance
suggesting gusts of 30-35 mph. Overnight lows will drop into the
middle to upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Deepening surface low pressure forecast to push into central
Wisconsin by 12z Wednesday with a tight pressure gradient over most
of the forecast area during the day. Forecast soundings showing 40-
45 kts just off the surface tomorrow mid morning through the
afternoon hours so wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph look likely over
most of the area, except south of the Interstate 70 corridor. As
a result, a wind advisory will be issued for a good portion of
the forecast area for tomorrow. Areas north of I-74 will get close
to some warning criteria winds, especially if the wrap around
moisture/clouds stay to our north like most of the models suggest.
Despite the passage of the cold front this evening, temperatures
will be mild again on Wednesday, although not as warm as today.
Look for highs to climb into the 60s most areas.
The strong surface low will begin to fill across the lower Great
Lakes on Thursday as upper level energy is transferred over to the
East Coast. This will result in an elongated surface trof from the
new low off New England west through the southern Great Lakes.
This feature will gradually slide south bringing a more extensive
cloud band south with it and the threat for some light precip
starting on Friday night and continuing on and off into Saturday
night. We may see a mix of rain and snow across our north Friday
night into early Saturday morning, and possibly again late
Saturday night into Sunday. No accumulations are expected with any
snow that does occur across our north.
The upper trof will gradually work its way southeast across the
Great Lakes on Sunday and Monday with rather cool temperatures
prevailing, at least compared to what we have had over the past
couple of days. However, with the trof being more progressive, the
cool down will not last long as most medium range models suggest
the trof will shift off to our east by early next week with more
of a zonal flow developing over the Midwest resulting in a gradual
moderating trend through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Storms have moved out of the area but some clouds remain over some
of the sites. SPI and DEC should be scattered out by issuance time
with clouds remaining over CMI/PIA and DEC for several hours this
evening. Will keep -SHRA at PIA and BMI for several hours as well
given the returns still on radar. Scattered clouds will continue
overnight and then clear out for the day tomorrow. Could be some
cirrus come into the area during the evening but will leave out
for now. Winds will be westerly through the period with windy
conditions increasing in speed during the daytime hours...with
gusts up to 35kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
336 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Low pressure system that impacted the area yesterday continues to
deepen eastward this morning towards the Great Lakes region. Strong
winds coming in the backside of the system have translated to the
sfc with westerly winds at around 10 mph at the current hour.
Meanwhile an area of sfc high pressure over western Kansas has
gradually spread toward the CWA overnight, dropping dewpoints over
central KS into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
For today, main concern will be the critical fire weather over most
of the CWA. Additional details are listed in the Fire Weather
Section below. Westerly winds are expected to increase by mid
afternoon as diurnal heating and drier air within the boundary layer
push 30 kt winds towards the sfc. Latest runs of the GFS and NAM are
not as strong with the unidirectional westerly winds compared to the
latest runs of the HRRR and RUC. Dependent on how deep the boundary
layer is able to mix out will determine how strong winds become. I
went with a blend of the mean values using a slight preference for
the RUC and HRRR resulting in sustained sfc speeds at 15 to 25 mph.
Cloud cover will also be a determining factor as a mid level impulse
tracks through southeast KS by the afternoon. The associated jet
streak with this wave may help sustain the stronger winds despite
the increasing cloud cover. Highs today are overall cooler behind
the cold front with readings in the lower 60s. Skies clear tonight
with winds becoming light. Lows near freezing are anticipated,
ranging from the lower to middle 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
West to northwest flow aloft will continue Thursday through Monday.
Temperatures will be mild on Thursday with a continued very dry
airmass, ample sunshine, and very deep mixing of the boundary layer.
This will result in another day of very dry surface RH although
winds should be lighter than on Wednesday. Details regarding this
and other fire weather can be found below in the fire weather
section. Temperatures are likely to range from the upper 50s north
to the mid 60s in east central KS.
Changes are expected Thursday night into Friday as an upper low
builds over the northern Plains and moderate cold advection builds
into Kansas. The airmass on Thursday night will start out very dry,
but all model guidance is suggesting a zone of strong frontogenesis
associated with this cold advection over parts of the forecast area.
The temperature profile associated with the frontogenesis region
will also lend itself to supporting slantwise and vertical
instability. So, while there will be a lot of dry air to overcome,
it seems likely that given the magnitude of vertical motion a band
of light to moderate precipitation will develop from northwest into
central and southeast Kansas through the night and into Friday
morning. The north edge of this precipitation band is likely to have
a very sharp cutoff from no precipitation to moderate precipitation
and there is some uncertainty regarding where that cutoff will be.
Temperature profiles will initially be quite warm, but assuming the
wet-bulb effect do see potential for a change over to at least a
period of snow. The best chance for this to occur will be in areas
where the precipitation is longest-lived to have the best chance to
wet-bulb as cool as possible. Given moderate rates, there is some
potential for minor accumulation in a band across the area, with the
best chance probably south of a Minneapolis to Abilene to Garnett
line.
The main upper low will move just northeast of the area late
Saturday and see some small potential sprinkles mainly in eastern
Kansas but have kept the forecast dry at this time. Temperatures
will be cooler but only slightly below normal through the weekend
before another big warm-up is expected going into next week. There
is a very strong signal for the upper flow pattern to build a ridge
into the plains on Monday and then turn to southwesterly flow by
Tuesday and Wednesday. This would likely bring temperatures back
into the 70s while opening the Gulf to northward moisture
transport.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Wind continues to be the primary TAF concern for next 24 hours.
Winds have diminished at MHK and should at TOP/FOE in next hour.
Mixing picks back up mid to late morning with gusts in the 20s
possible, but worth noting that a few models indicate max possible
gusts of 40 kts possible late Wednesday afternoon if deep mixing
occurs. Think more likely that would see an average in the column,
more towards 30kts. Will need to monitor. Winds diminish after
00z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Per the discussion above, winds are the main uncertainty for today
while the RH values very likely to fall into the 15 to 25 percent
range. Areas over north central KS may even reach the lower teens
percent-wise if deeper mixing is realized. Elsewhere, areas along
the I-70 corridor and points southward are likely to reach the 15
to 20 percent range for RH. Westerly winds are expected to
gradually increase between 15 and 20 mph by mid afternoon. Gusts
between 25 and 30 are most likely to occur in the 1 PM to 4 PM
time frame before quickly dropping off thereafter. Locations to
see these conditions are generally south of Interstate 70 with
some uncertainty towards the northern portions of Republic,
Pottawatomie, Jackson, and Jefferson counties where the winds may
be not as gusty despite the low RH values. Overall, the short term
guidance favors a more deeply mixed boundary layer with the
stronger winds, so have coordinated with surrounding offices to
issue a Red Flag Warning in effect this afternoon through 7 PM.
RH on Thursday is expected to be very dry once again, likely in the
13 to 23 percent range with the highest values in far northeast
Kansas. The difference on Thursday is the expectation for lighter
winds. The pressure gradient is likely to weaken significantly by
Thursday with sustained winds in the 5 to 15 mph range through the
day. The wild card is the potential for gusts in the very-well-
mixed low levels. Peak mixing heights are likely to be in the
7000-10000 foot range with stronger winds (greater than 30 kts)
present above 8000 feet. This presents a small chance for brief
but stronger gusts to mix down to the surface. With that in mind,
the potential is not high enough to be too concerned with right
now and will most likely see 5-15 mph winds with occasional
sporadic gusts to around 20 mph.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ008-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...67
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen/Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
532 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated 530 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
Narrow, broken line of showers and T-storms weakened east of I-65,
and what`s left of it should be pushing out of our eastern counties
by 6 AM EDT. Going forecast had a good handle on this already, but a
quick update will be issued to clean up the early morning wording.
May also need to beef up the wind forecast slightly, with a solid 15-
20 mph showing up in quite a few observations.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
Cold front is currently making its way across southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, just reaching the I-65 corridor at 07Z. A couple
of storms over southern Indiana currently approaching severe limits
in an environment of elevated instability and low wet-bulb zero
heights. Low-level wind fields are also frisky enough that we`ll
need to watch for gusty winds as well as marginal severe hail, but
these should exit to the north and east by daybreak. Will mention
isolated/scattered storms in a pre-1st period, but mostly handle it
through short-fuse products.
The rest of the day will be mostly sunny and breezy as the surface
low wraps up over the Great Lakes, leaving a tight westerly gradient
over the Ohio Valley. Cold advection will be stronger aloft than at
the surface, so expect deep mixing, which will bring down 30 mph
gusts at times, especially across southern Indiana. Nocturnal
cooling will be limited tonight as the winds stay up, with Thursday
looking fairly similar to today, only a bit less breezy and a few
degrees cooler. Gradient finally starts to relax late Thursday as
the surface ridge builds in from the west.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
Expect below normal temps Friday through the weekend as a series of
upper disturbances carves out a mean trof over the eastern CONUS.
Main challenge will be timing of precip chances, and confidence is
low given the usual difficulty in timing progressive NW flow, and
initial lack of available moisture.
Will keep things dry through Friday, even with a weak surface front
dropping through, as precipitable water will take a while to come up
from roughly a quarter inch. By Friday night we finally start to see
some saturation, so will introduce slight chance POPs mainly in the
south as the front hangs up.
Will carry low-end chance POPs for most of the weekend, with GFS and
ECMWF both progging a closed low tracking across Illinois/Indiana
Saturday night. Not much phasing with the southern stream, but this
trajectory is far enough south and could cool the thermal profiles
enough to support mixed precip within a brief window late Sat night
or early Sun morning. Daytime temps will struggle to reach 50 over
the weekend, with morning lows just barely above freezing.
Precip chances will wane Sunday night as the trof axis pushes to our
east, but cooler than normal temps will continue into Monday with
surface high pressure settling along the Gulf Coast. Milder temps
return on Tuesday as upper ridging builds from the southwest.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 123 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
A cold front will quickly slide through the TAF sites over the next
few hours. Although moisture starved, an isolated shower or storm
could develop. At this point, have elected to continue keeping the
TAF sites dry as likelihood of one impacting a terminal is pretty
low. Expect steady SW winds to continue ahead of the cold front,
along with a few more hours of LLWS below 1700 feet AGL.
LLWS threat and any Bkn ceiling around 4-5 K feet quickly subsides
between 4 and 5 AM EST with the passage of the front. An hour or two
of gusty SW winds will then continue through the pre-dawn hours
behind the front.
Clear skies return for sunrise with WSW winds around 10 to 15 mph.
These will increase in magnitude by mid to late morning with gusts
up in the 25-30 mph through the afternoon. Winds then slacken to SW
around 5 to 10 mph early this evening.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
300 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Above average confidence in the long term due to mostly quiet
weather and relatively good model agreement.
Through the short term period the region remains in either zonal or
broad cyclonic flow aloft with the Gulf of Mexico cut off for most
of the period so moisture will be limited.
A few high clouds are expected to stream across the area today,
otherwise high pressure should provide another pleasant day for the
lower Ohio valley.
The passage of a weak H5 ripple of energy this afternoon and evening
should do nothing more than bring a layer of mid clouds across the
area. The HRRR implies some weak radar returns across the middle of
our CWA (W-E) in that time frame, but with clouds bases so high, any
precipitation should evaporate before reaching the ground. Besides,
with the exception of the SREF, all deterministic model runs keep it
dry so will go dry for now.
High pressure is expected to keep the region dry and cooler through
Friday morning. Precipitation chances make their way back into the
forecast Friday afternoon with the approach of a decent H5 short
wave and slightly higher deep layer moisture. Precipitation chances
increase slightly Friday night with the passage of said short wave.
Above normal temperatures during the first half of the short term
period are expected to cool to near normal in the second half of the
period.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Medium range models indicate that mid/upper level energy pinched off
from an elongated low previously over the Great Lakes will begin to
dig into the central CONUS by the beginning of the extended forecast
period. A decent surface pressure gradient across the PAH forecast
area between high pressure in the central Plains and a low off the
FL coast will keep a flow of dry cool air in the low levels. Thus,
it will be somewhat difficult to get much in the way of measurable
rain from the system as it passes right over our region early
Sunday. We will go with a slight chance of measurable rainfall with
this event.
After Sunday, northern stream mid/upper level shortwave energy is
progged to dominate much of the eastern CONUS and sweep away the
aforementioned system to the east. Dry weather should prevail across
the PAH forecast area through at least Tuesday as the mid/upper flow
transitions to more of a ridging pattern. Tuesday (Day 7) should be
breezy as another surface pressure gradient sets up between an
approaching low pressure/frontal system to the west and high
pressure along the Atlantic seaboard. Dry low level return flow will
result in a warming trend from 30s/50s to 40s/60s by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
The cold front should reach KPAH and KEVV by the beginning of the
period, but may not reach KOWB until 07Z. Southwest winds will
gust into the 20kts ahead of the front, but the gusts will
increase a bit for an hour or two from the west behind the front.
The cap appears to be winning out, so the front should be dry.
Winds will eventually settle in under 10kts overnight and into the
morning hours. West southwest winds will increase toward midday,
with some gusts 20-25kts possible.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1145 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...00Z LCH SOUNDING MAINTAINING A SHARP THERMAL
INVERSION FROM 2-4K FT AS SOUTHWEST LLJ AROUND 35 KNOTS REMAINS
IN PLACE. RESULT HAS BEEN A VERY HAZY DAY DESPITE RATHER STRONG
SURFACE WINDS. WILL SEE INVERSION DISSIPATING AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES AS LLJ ADVANCES EAST WITH ASSOCIATED TROF MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. SURFACE FRONT PROGGED BY HRRR TO REACH THE LAKES AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...ACADIANA TOWARD SUNRISE. PRECIPITABLE WATER PER
LATEST LCH SOUNDING SHOWING A MEAGER 0.76 INCHES. FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. DO NOT SEE ANY ISSUES WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING (IF THEY
HAVENT ALREADY) OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ESPECIALLY NEARER THE
COAST. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIKELY
DROPPING BELOW 1K FEET BY 09Z OR SO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE ALSO BE
REDUCED TO POTENTIALLY LIFR LEVELS GIVEN LOWER WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT
COMPARED TO LAST AS WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 3K FEET (OR SCATTER OUT) BY NOONTIME. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM A NERLY DIRECTION BACK TO AN ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT CREEPS BACK NWD.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/
MAJOR FLOODING ON THE SABINE...
FLOODING ON THE CALCASIEU...NECHES AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS
CONTINUES...
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON FLOODING PLEASE CHECK OUR WEBSITE
AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH.
A WARM START TO THE DAY SAW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. UNDER
PTCLDY TO MSTLY CLDY SKIES TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 80
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND MID 80S CNTRL LA TODAY.
A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH DFW AND LOOKS TO MAKE THE COAST
OF SW LOUISIANA AROUND SUNRISE... MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BEFORE FALLING APART. WINDS OVER THE THE LAND WILL SHIFT AROUND
TO THE EAST WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS LATEST BOUNDARY WILL WASHOUT QUICKLY WITH WINDS
KICKING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNSET.
CHANCES FOR RAINS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AS THE MAIN SURGE
OF COLDER DRIER AIR MAKES ITS APPEARANCE. RAINFALL TOTALS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 58 80 56 76 / 10 20 30 40
LCH 64 80 64 78 / 10 20 30 40
LFT 67 80 66 77 / 10 20 30 50
BPT 65 81 65 78 / 10 20 20 40
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
543 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A
FRIDAY COLD FRONT RETURNS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDT BASED ON
RADAR AND NEAR TERM MDL TRENDS. PREVIOUS...A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE RGN THIS MRNG WITH WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHCS OF SEEING RAIN IS EXPD FROM PIT N AND
E...WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND UPR SUPPORT IS
PROGGED. A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO PSBL AS MODELS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.
AFT FROPA...A CLEARING TREND IS EXPD...ALONG WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS
AS MIXING INCREASES. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
LVLS. NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING MODIFIED HRRR AND
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACRS UPR MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES RGN THRU THU. SHORTWAVES ADVANCING ARND THE LOW SHOULD KEEP
OCNL SHOWER CHCS IN THE FCST. THE UPR LOW IS EXPD TO OPEN INTO A
TROF AND ADVANCE ACRS THE RGN THU NGT/FRI...ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. SHOWER CHCS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AND
FRONT...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS PSBL IN COLD ADVECTION. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LVLS BY FRI.
GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING ADJUSTED SREF AND SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD ERN CONUS UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP THRU ERLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMP REDUCTION BACK TWD LATE WINTER AVGS. PRECIP...
INCLUDING SOME SNOW SHOWERS...SPPRTG SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
MINIMAL. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...TWEAKED FOR COLLABORATION...WAS
USED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH GENL VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD...
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS WL BE PLAGUED BY MORNING SHOWERS...LLVL WIND
SHEAR...AND EVENTUALLY SFC GUSTS ARND 25 KTS BY AFTN.
STRONG LOW PRES WL MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THIS MRNG...PULLING
AN OCCLUDING FRONT ACRS THE UPR OH REGION AND GENERATING THE
CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY FM PIT
NORTH AND EASTWARD. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WERE THUS CONFINED TO THE I
80 CORRIDOR PORTS AND LBE...WITH A VICINITY MENTIONED OTHERWISE.
LLVL WIND SHEAR WAS INCLUDED FOR PORTS SOUTH OF FKL AND DUJ AS
AS A LLVL JET TRAVERSES THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE WESTERN
LAKES LLOW.
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH SFC GUSTS NR 25
KTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WIND VEERS TWD THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH...AND IN THE WAKE OF A THURSDAY
NIGHT COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
323 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A
FRIDAY COLD FRONT RETURNS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE RGN THIS MRNG WITH WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHCS OF SEEING RAIN IS EXPD FROM
PIT N AND E...WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND UPR
SUPPORT IS PROGGED. A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO PSBL WITH FROPA AS
MODELS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AFT FROPA...A CLEARING TREND IS EXPD...ALONG WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS
AS MIXING INCREASES. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
LVLS. NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING MODIFIED HRRR AND
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACRS UPR MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES RGN THRU THU. SHORTWAVES ADVANCING ARND THE LOW SHOULD KEEP
OCNL SHOWER CHCS IN THE FCST. THE UPR LOW IS EXPD TO OPEN INTO A
TROF AND ADVANCE ACRS THE RGN THU NGT/FRI...ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. SHOWER CHCS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AND
FRONT...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS PSBL IN COLD ADVECTION. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LVLS BY FRI.
GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING ADJUSTED SREF AND SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD ERN CONUS UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP THRU ERLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMP REDUCTION BACK TWD LATE WINTER AVGS. PRECIP...
INCLUDING SOME SNOW SHOWERS...SPPRTG SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
MINIMAL. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...TWEAKED FOR COLLABORATION...WAS
USED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH GENL VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD...
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS WL BE PLAGUED BY ELEVATED SHOWERS...LLVL WIND
SHEAR...AND EVENTUALLY SFC GUSTS ARND 25 KTS BY AFTN.
STRONG LOW PRES WL MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THIS MRNG...PULLING A
CDFNT ACRS THE UPR OH REGION AND GENERATING THE CONDITIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE. SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY FM PIT NORTH...AND
EASTWARD. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WERE THUS CONFINED TO THE I 80
CORRIDOR PORTS AND LBE...WITH A VICINITY MENTIONED OTHERWISE. LLVL
WIND SHEAR WAS INCLUDED AT ZZV AND MGW DURING THE PREDAWN HRS AS
A LLVL JET TRAVERSES THE SRN FLANK OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW.
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH SFC GUSTS NR 25
KTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WIND VEERS TWD THE W WITH PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH...AND IN THE WAKE OF A THURSDAY
NIGHT COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
07/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1236 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A
FRIDAY COLD FRONT RETURNS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS N OF PIT OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
RGN WED MRNG/ERLY AFTN WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS. A FEW TSTMS ARE
ALSO PSBL WITH MODEL PROGGED ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AFT FROPA...A CLEARING TREND IS EXPD ALONG WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS.
TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS. NEAR TERM GRIDS
WERE UPDATING USING MODIFIED HRRR AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH SAGGING AND SETTLING ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE...CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED
THROUGH FRIDAY AS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES SUPPORT CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WITH A SECOND COLD PUSH EXPECTED
LATER ON FRIDAY.
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH STAYED CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES BY FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD ERN CONUS UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMP REDUCTION BACK TWD LATE WINTER AVGS. PRECIP...INCLUDING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS...SPPRTG SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH TIMING CONFIDENCE IS MINIMAL. SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...TWEAKED FOR COLLABORATION...WAS USED FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTH WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN PORTS, WHERE MVFR REMAINS. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH KFKL AND KDUJ MAY BREAK OUT OVERNIGHT
AS WELL. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE UNDER CLEAR SKIES, BUT WITH DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WIDE NOT PLACED IN TERMINALS FOR NOW.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF MVFR SHOWERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AIR WILL BRING VFR TO THE REGION BEHIND
FROPA.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
529 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
ALBERTA/SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS WITH WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NW ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SE
FLOW WAS INCREASING OVER NRN WI BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
ERN LAKES AND A TROUGH FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH MN TO LOW PRES OVER
MO. A LINE SHRA EXTENDING FROM NW WI INTO SE WI/NE IL WERE SUPPORTED
BY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 290-
295K SFCS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH HAS RESULTED
IN CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR EAST
WHERE DRY EASTERLY FLOW AND PROXIMITY TO RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FROM MID 50S FAR WEST AND EAST
TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MI SHORE IN SE FLOW.
TONIGHT...AS THE NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LIFTS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
TO NEAR 987 MB OVER SRN WI BY 12Z WED. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN BAND MOVING THROUGH WI SO
HAVE BACKED OFF ON INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL OVER WEST
UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVER THE CENTRAL COUNTIES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN COMBINATION OF INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE IN COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO OVERCOME DRY EASTERLY FLOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WITH THE WAA SURGE...THE PCPN BAND
COMING IN INITIALLY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT. ERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME GUSTY LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
NEAR LAKE MI WHERE GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ALSO KEPT IN
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER OVER SCNTRL UPPER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING AS MODELS STILL SHOW NEG SHOWALTER INDICES AND MUCAPE OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG ON NOSE OF 85H THETA-E AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE FALLING HEAVILY IN THE MORNING SO PRECIP
LOADING COULD ALSO AID IN BRINGING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS TO SFC. AT THE
LEAST...DUE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO NORTH OF DEEPENING
SFC LOW OVER WI DOWN TO LESS THAN 990MB BY 12Z WED...AREAS FAVORED
BY EAST WINDS SUCH AS LK MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY AND ACROSS
KEWEENAW COULD SEE EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH MUCH OF THE DAY.
AS DRY SLOT WITH SYSTEM AND Q-VECT DIV MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
AREAS EXPECT PRECIP TO DIMINISH THERE. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
WESTERN CWA WHERE DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE EXPANDS ON NW SIDE
OF DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND STRONG SFC-H85 LOW MEANDERING OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MI AND DEFORMATION FORCING ALLOWS BAND TO SET UP OVER
THE WEST.
THE OTHER TRICKY PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE PTYPE AND POSSIBILITY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON WED. MODEL SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY NAM...SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMIC COOLING WITH HEAVIER PCPN BAND MOVING THROUGH
WED MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHORTLY AFT 12Z. IF THIS
HAPPENS AS QUICKLY AS NAM INDICATES THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL OF
SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW WED MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI AS THIS HEAVIER BAND MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. RIGHT NOW...SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THERMAL FIELDS/PROFILES HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY PUT IN A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW OVER MAINLY THE KEWEENAW AND WRN MQT/ERN BARAGA COUNTIES WED
MORNING BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF SOME WED AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE FAR WEST LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT WHEN DEFORMATION BAND W/SYSTEM SETS UP IN STRONGLY
CYCLONIC NNE FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THU...THE STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR THE E CNTRL CWA AT 12Z...PER
MDLS CONSENSUS...WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WRAP-AROUND PCPN WITH THE COLD CYCLONIC NE FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE SNOWFALL INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. 850 MB TEMPS IN THE-
6C TO -8C RANGE WILL ONLY PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. THERE IS ALSO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW AND ITS IMPACT ON THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INTO N CNTRL
UPPER MI. NEVERTHELESS...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED...GREATEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR IWD
AND WRN MARQUETTE COUNTY INTO BARAGA COUNTY. LITTLE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ERN CWA.
THU NIGHT...AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
DEPART...LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. SOME FZDZ MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER ONLY NEAR
-10C...BUT THE PREDOMINANT PCPN TYPE SHOULD REMAIN AS SNOW.
FRI...MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDING WILL BRING CLEARING. EVEN WITH THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 30S SOUTH.
SAT-MON...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO DRAG ANOTHER BATCH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE NRN
LAKES FROM SUN INTO MON. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING REMAINS AS THE
GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -16C WITH WILL
SUPPORT LES CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY N TO NW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON.
TUE...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN
WITH SHRTWVS AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
AS AREA OF RA AHEAD OF DEEPENING LO PRES MOVING INTO WI OVERSPREADS
UPR MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF ONSET TO DETERIORATE TO
IFR/LIFR BY DAYBREAK. THEN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE ON WED
THRU WED EVNG WITH CYC E-NE FLOW/RA MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SN ON
NW FLANK OF LO PRES MOVING INTO SCENTRAL UPR MI LATE TODAY. GUSTY E
WINDS WL BE STRONGEST AHEAD OF THIS LO AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX
LOCATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN STRONG EAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON WHERE E-NE GALES OF
35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND MOVES E AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-084.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
138 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
ALBERTA/SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS WITH WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NW ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SE
FLOW WAS INCREASING OVER NRN WI BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
ERN LAKES AND A TROUGH FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH MN TO LOW PRES OVER
MO. A LINE SHRA EXTENDING FROM NW WI INTO SE WI/NE IL WERE SUPPORTED
BY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 290-
295K SFCS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH HAS RESULTED
IN CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR EAST
WHERE DRY EASTERLY FLOW AND PROXIMITY TO RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FROM MID 50S FAR WEST AND EAST
TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MI SHORE IN SE FLOW.
TONIGHT...AS THE NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LIFTS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
TO NEAR 987 MB OVER SRN WI BY 12Z WED. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN BAND MOVING THROUGH WI SO
HAVE BACKED OFF ON INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL OVER WEST
UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVER THE CENTRAL COUNTIES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN COMBINATION OF INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE IN COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO OVERCOME DRY EASTERLY FLOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WITH THE WAA SURGE...THE PCPN BAND
COMING IN INITIALLY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT. ERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME GUSTY LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
NEAR LAKE MI WHERE GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ALSO KEPT IN
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER OVER SCNTRL UPPER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING AS MODELS STILL SHOW NEG SHOWALTER INDICES AND MUCAPE OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG ON NOSE OF 85H THETA-E AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE FALLING HEAVILY IN THE MORNING SO PRECIP
LOADING COULD ALSO AID IN BRINGING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS TO SFC. AT THE
LEAST...DUE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO NORTH OF DEEPENING
SFC LOW OVER WI DOWN TO LESS THAN 990MB BY 12Z WED...AREAS FAVORED
BY EAST WINDS SUCH AS LK MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY AND ACROSS
KEWEENAW COULD SEE EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH MUCH OF THE DAY.
AS DRY SLOT WITH SYSTEM AND Q-VECT DIV MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
AREAS EXPECT PRECIP TO DIMINISH THERE. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
WESTERN CWA WHERE DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE EXPANDS ON NW SIDE
OF DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND STRONG SFC-H85 LOW MEANDERING OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MI AND DEFORMATION FORCING ALLOWS BAND TO SET UP OVER
THE WEST.
THE OTHER TRICKY PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE PTYPE AND POSSIBILITY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON WED. MODEL SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY NAM...SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMIC COOLING WITH HEAVIER PCPN BAND MOVING THROUGH
WED MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHORTLY AFT 12Z. IF THIS
HAPPENS AS QUICKLY AS NAM INDICATES THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL OF
SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW WED MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI AS THIS HEAVIER BAND MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. RIGHT NOW...SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THERMAL FIELDS/PROFILES HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY PUT IN A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW OVER MAINLY THE KEWEENAW AND WRN MQT/ERN BARAGA COUNTIES WED
MORNING BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF SOME WED AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE FAR WEST LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT WHEN DEFORMATION BAND W/SYSTEM SETS UP IN STRONGLY
CYCLONIC NNE FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 549 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS LOOKS QUITE CHANGEABLE WITH FLOW
TRANSITIONING BETWEEN PERIODS OF MORE PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW AND
PERIODS OF MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PATTERN
WILL BECOME BLOCKY OVER NAMERICA WITH DYNAMIC SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BENEATH A DEVELOPING CLOSED HIGH TO THE N. THIS
BLOCKY PATTERN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE W
COAST FORCES THE CLOSED HIGH TO DISSIPATE UNDER DEVELOPING ERN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. WRN RIDGE THEN WEAKENS WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED
SPLIT FLOW REDEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THE MDT/HVY PCPN OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...A DRIER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME -SHSN AND EVEN LES ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE AND COLDER AIR DIVING SE INTO THE ERN TROF LATER THIS
WEEKEND. FARTHER OUT...NAEFS 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES BLO NORMAL
TEMPS BECOMING FAVORED W-E ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL CANADA WHILE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS BECOME FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THIS SUGGESTS
A POTENTIAL ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS SHORTWAVES TRACK ALONG A
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. SO...THE UPPER
LAKES MAY BE AFFECTED BY BOUTS OF PCPN EVERY 2-3 DAYS...BEGINNING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THE MONTH.
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME SNOW EVENTS TO OCCUR.
BEGINNING WED NIGHT/THU...MIDLEVEL LOW AND SFC LOW CENTERED VCNTY OF
SCNTRL UPPER MI WED EVENING WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT
BEFORE QUICKLY UNRAVELING AND DRIFTING S AND E ON THU. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FCST AREA.
TO THE N AND W OF THE LOW...UPSLOPE NE TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
ENHANCE PCPN...ESPECIALLY SO OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED. THE FAR W IS ALSO CENTERED
UNDER AN AREA OF LINGERING DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS...AND
THAT FORCING IS QUITE STRONG THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL TEMPS
AREN`T QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT IT WOULDN`T TAKE
MUCH COOLING TO RESULT IN CONSIDERABLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS INCLUDING THE 09Z
SREF...THE NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN ARE ON THE HIGHER END OF THE QPF
SPECTRUM...SHOWING AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH WED NIGHT OVER FAR WRN UPPER
MI. USED A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 1/3RD TO
2/3RDS OF AN INCH. WITH SNOW RATIOS PROBABLY NOT HIGHER THAN AROUND
10 TO 1...SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3-6 INCHES WED NIGHT
OVER GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES AND 2-4 INTO HOUGHTON COUNTY. ADVY
HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THOSE 3 COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH TO
SUBADVY LEVELS IN THE BORDERING COUNTIES...WITH EVEN LIGHTER AMOUNTS
DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FARTHER E.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH THU AS ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND
DRIFTS AND E. MIGHT SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE W IN THE MORNING.
PATCHY -SN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THU NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ TO DEVELOP IN THE NNE WIND UPSLOPE
AREAS AS MOISTURE DEPTH SHRINKS TO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE TEMPS IN THE
MOIST LAYER ARE AROUND -10C. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...KEPT MENTION OUT
OF FCST FOR NOW.
CLOSED MID LEVEL HIGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER MANITOBA THU WEAKENS AND
DRIFTS SE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI/SAT...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FRI/FRI NIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH PRES
OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BEGAN TO TREND MIN TEMPS DOWN A BIT...
TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS.
SHORTWAVE DROPS SE THRU THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT
TIMING/TRACK OF SHORTWAVE IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON WITH THE GFS MORE
AMPLIFIED/FARTHER S WITH SHORTWAVE TRACK THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...
RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE OF -SHSN SUN ACROSS THE AREA AS DAYTIME
HEATING/MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME TYPE OF -SHSN REGIME. FOR NOW...LEANED FCST AWAY FROM THE
GFS. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -15C OR SO BEHIND WAVE...EXPECT
SOME LIGHT LES TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SUN INTO MON.
THE FIRST IN WHAT COULD BE A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS MAY ARRIVE IN THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE TUE OR
WED. WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS
BASED ON RECENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS...ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED
ON TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
AS AREA OF RA AHEAD OF DEEPENING LO PRES MOVING INTO WI OVERSPREADS
UPR MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF ONSET TO DETERIORATE TO
IFR/LIFR BY DAYBREAK. THEN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE ON WED
THRU WED EVNG WITH CYC E-NE FLOW/RA MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SN ON
NW FLANK OF LO PRES MOVING INTO SCENTRAL UPR MI LATE TODAY. GUSTY E
WINDS WL BE STRONGEST AHEAD OF THIS LO AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX
LOCATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN STRONG EAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON WHERE E-NE GALES OF
35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND MOVES E AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-003-009-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162-263-
264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A DEVELOPING DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE LOWER PENINSULA MAY
CONTAIN HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TONIGHT. THE LOW ITSELF WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE. COOLER WEATHER WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH HIGHS MIGRATING BACK TO THE 40S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WATCHING CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER ILLINOIS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
STRONG SHEAR OVER IL/IN BUT NOTHING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...YET.
THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE A BIT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES STILL
LOOKING FOR STORMS TO MOVE TOWARD THE CWA AFTER 11 PM WHICH IS NOT
THE BEST TIME TO SEE SVR STORMS. INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF I-94 AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAIL REMAINS THE BIGGEST THREAT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
POINT TOWARD A ROBUST INVERSION WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE WIND
THREAT.
ALSO LOOKING AT THE WIND THREAT WEDNESDAY. WIND CROSS SECTIONS
POINT TOWARD 50+ KNOTS AOB 1000 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. WE/LL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE 00Z DATA
AND EVALUATE WHETHER WE NEED TO BUMP THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT MAY REALIZE BETTER MIXING SUCH
AS THE SOUTHERN CWA. AS OF RIGHT NOW THOUGH...THE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
TWO ITEMS TO DEAL WITH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BEING THE
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AND THREAT FOR SEVERE TONIGHT. THE SECOND
BEING STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
REGARDING THE STORM AND SEVERE CHANCES FOR TONIGHT. CONSIDERABLE
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS ALLOWING DAY TIME
HEATING TO BOOST TEMPS A BIT. READINGS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE 60S OVER
FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MI TOWARDS AZO AND BEH. BEH HAS REACHED 64
DEGREES. OF MORE IMPORTANCE IS THE FACT THAT DEW POINTS HAVE SURGED
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVER A FAIRLY SIZABLE AREA OVER
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THIS WILL ACT TO INCREASE INSTABILITY TONIGHT
AS THIS MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE AS
THE WIND FIELDS INCREASE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE ALONG WITH MID
LEVEL COOLING FROM THE DYNAMIC 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TEND TO INCREASE
INSTABILITY. THE RUC HAS DEEP LAYER CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
1000 J/KG IN THE GRR FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST CAPE OVER THE
LARGEST AREA (MKG/BIV/GRR/AZO/BTL) OCCURS AROUND 2AM TO 3AM. BOTTOM
LINE...STILL EXPECTING BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SWEEP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE IS
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ARE MAXIMIZED. HAIL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH REMAINS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS A POTENTIAL THREAT
AS WELL.
REGARDING THE WIND TOMORROW...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A VERY DEEP LOW FOR ANY TIME OF YEAR
IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 980S TOMORROW MORNING. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SITUATED OVER ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. BEST ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT LOOKS TO BE WEST OF US THOUGH.
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS OF 45+ MPH LOOK LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR
ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (I96 AND I94 CORRIDORS)
WHERE WE MAY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE/MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON.
POWER OUTAGES ARE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW. THINKING THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE HIGHER RISK AREA MAY BE FOR BIV/GRR/LWA AND
AZO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF THE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...
THEN STAY THAT WAY FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WE MORE THAN LIKELY WILL SEE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS SORT OF
EVENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS EAST OF GREENLAND BY
THURSDAY AND THAT FORCES THE NORTHERN STREAM TO DIG WELL SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA... INSTEAD OF STAYING UP IN CENTRAL CANADA HAS
IT HAS BEEN DOING OVER THE PAST WEEK. THIS ALSO HELPS TO PUSH THE
CURRENT SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE
CURRENT ONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AND HEAD TO THE
EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA AROUND
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY FOR THIS SYSTEM
SO...THIS COULD BE ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM. THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY
HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO TURN THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY IN OUR AREA GETS SHEARED OUT BUT AS THIS HAPPENS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD SO WE GET A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE WE COULD SEE THE RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHWEST LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT SHARPLY ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 09Z TO 11Z FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LEADING TO
IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS. NOT CONFIDENT ON
HOW WIDESPREAD THE IFR WILL BECOME GIVEN THE LACK OF SUCH
CONDITIONS AROUND THE AREA. THUS I TONED BACK THIS WORDING.
STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. MOST
PLACES WILL SEE GUSTS TOPPING 40 KNOTS WITH LOCAL 50 KNOTS
POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND...BUT MOSTLY NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES DURING THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
ISSUED A GALE WARNING EARLIER TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS IN WISCONSIN. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT AROUND 983MB/S WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE
FORCE ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY PEAKING IN 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. WAVES WILL
BUILD TOWARDS 10 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES LIKELY
NORTH OF MUSKEGON GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE LOW WILL FILL/WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE WINDS
AND WAVES GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016
SOME POINTS ALONG THE GRAND RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE BANKFULL. THE GOING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES EXPECTED FROM THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. NO OTHER HEAVY
RAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK... SO THAT
WILL GIVE THE RIVERS SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1147 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Main concern continues to be focused on later this afternoon and
this evening for the potential of severe weather.
The HRRR has been consistent in developing convection along the
surface low and northeast along the inverted surface trough. Surface
analysis for 19Z shows the surface low is likely in between Moberly,
Columbia and Hannibal. This area has remained cloud free and is
likely to be able to build enough instability, perhaps as high as
1500 J/kg of SBCAPE. 0-6km shear though is very favorable for storm
organization and may be pushing 60 KTs. The good news is that this
environment should be east of the forecast area, given the forecasts
for the surface low. But there may be enough MUCAPE in the post-
frontal regime that when combined the forcing of the upper trough,
that a few thunderstorms cold develop late in the afternoon to early
evening. The CAPE/shear combination is not as robust as it is in the
equivalent warm sector but the environment may be supportive of
marginally severe hail.
The other issue in the short-term deals with the backside of this
system and the potential for strong winds. It is usually very
favorable for advisory level surface winds when an upper level PV
anomaly moves overhead. However, the surface low in this case is
well removed from the area and moving into Wisconsin or the UP. The
pressure gradient magnitude drops off to between 25 and 30 ubars/km
through the morning hours. Also, by the time deeper mixing into
strong winds aloft occurs, the pressure gradient is weakening and
winds aloft diminish. So it just doesn`t look like the ingredients
line up to get a good synoptic wind event to the levels that an
advisory would be needed. But it will still be windy across the
region tomorrow morning through early in the afternoon. The
strongest winds will be in our northeastern zones, closest to the
departing the surface low.
While the weather will be cooler than the recent past, overall it
looks to be quiet as well. The area will be in a general
northwesterly flow pattern with a weak blocking signal over the
Great Lakes. With predominantly cyclonic curvature to the flow over
or region, temperatures will be on the cool side. It`s not really
until the end of next week, when the upper ridge over the west
begins to shift eastward, that flow turns back to the south and we
warm back into the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Final batch of showers are clearing out of northwest Missouri leaving
just a few VFR-based clouds behind. Other than this, mostly clear
skies will be the rule through the period. Gusts will subside over
the next couple of hours then pick back up during the afternoon.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS TO EXPAND POPS FOR THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWS
THAT -SHRA CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NE...
MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM YANKTON TO COLUMBUS AND BEATRICE AS
OF 23Z. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW PCPN PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. A 90KT 300MB JET SEGMENT WAS ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER SEGMENT OF 120KTS ALONG THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN CWA LATER
THIS EVENING BUT EXIT EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY.
THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO MODEST MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SHOULD CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS THAT MAY BORDER WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEADLINE AT THIS
POINT AS 850MB FLOW IS JUST NOT LOOKING QUITE STRONG ENOUGH.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
THE NEXT SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN COMES SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NWRLY FLOW AND CLOSES OFF JUST TO OUR EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TO OUR
WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD BRING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS AT
KOMA ALSO DECREASING. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE
MORNING AND SHOULD BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST MUCH OF THE AFTN.
SOME CEILINGS IN THE 6000 T0 9000 FOOT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WED
AFTN. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME ISOLD -SHRA IN THE AFTN...BUT THE
CHANCE AT ANY TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS UPDATE MAINLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WERE ALLOWING A BIT MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT WITH TIME INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MOVING IN FROM MONTANA
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY THERE FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THUS EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MID 20S SOUTHWEST
TO UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
ANY RADAR ECHOES ARE NEGLIGIBLE AND SUSPECT MAINLY VIRGA OCCURRING
AND LIKELY NO SPRINKLES HITTING THE GROUND. THIS HANDLED WELL IN
ONGOING FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AGAIN DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
AS EXPECTED...MOST OF THE SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING
SINCE ABOUT 01 UTC NOW THAT THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
WERE SAMPLED BY OUR EVENING BALLOON LAUNCH ARE DECREASING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. HOWEVER...EASTERN MT RADAR IMAGES SHOW A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING...SO THEY ARE LIKELY BEING DRIVEN
BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. RECENT HRRR AND RAP SIMULATIONS DO SUGGEST
SOME MAINTENANCE OF THAT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL ABOUT 07 UTC
IN WESTERN ND...SO WE EXTENDED LOW-END POPS THROUGH THAT TIME. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO NUDGED DOWNWARD A BIT IN SOME LOCALES WITH
THIS UPDATE GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS WITH OBSERVED 02 UTC DEWPOINTS
MAINLY FROM 15 TO 25 F ACROSS THE AREA.
NOTE THAT WE DID CONSIDER ADDING LOW POPS TO NORTHWESTERN ND LATE
TONIGHT AS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS...BUT OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO SO YET. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
UPDATE MAY NEED TO ADD SOME PENDING LATER MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
WE EXTENDED OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANOTHER 2 HOURS UNTIL 02
UTC /9 PM CDT/ WITH THIS UPDATE...AND SPREAD THE MENTION EASTWARD
A BIT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ND /INTO THE BISMARCK AREA/. THIS WAS
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS...WHICH REVEAL QUITE A FEW SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CELLS FROM NEAR BEULAH AND CARSON AND WESTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN MT. WE STILL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASE WITH SUNSET...BUT WANTED TO GIVE
IT A BIT MORE TIME TO END...ESPECIALLY SINCE RECENT RAP AND HRRR
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST A FEW CELLS COULD LINGER INTO MID EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WITH
HIGH OVER THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH TROUGH DIPPING TO THE SOUTH WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. A FEW
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WEAK ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...A MAINLY QUIET NIGHT IS ON TAP.
ON WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WEAKENS WHILE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT SHIFTS OVER
WISCONSIN. A FEW SHORT WAVES SLIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGING A LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVER
THE AREA AND DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO
WORK DOWN. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEPS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE MOST PART
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING OVER CENTRAL ND ON THURSDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK...WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THUS RIGHT NOW OUR MODEL
BLEND SOLUTION IS ONLY DEPICTING SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND UNTIL
ABOUT 07-08Z...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN
TAF SITES KDIK/KBIS/KJMS...BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND AT KISN/KMOT FROM AROUND 12Z-18Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEGINNING AROUND 15Z-16Z
AND PEAKING FROM 18Z-00Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-26 KNOTS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE LIKELY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ040-041-
043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
445 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING.
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH GREAT
MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY WILL GIVE US GUSTS THAT MEET/EXCEED 50 MPH
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF THE WIND
ADVISORY FROM NORTHWEST OHIO TO INCLUDE MORE OF NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...INCLUDING CLE AND MFD.
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACKED NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO OVERNIGHT ARE...AS OF 4 AM... WORKING THROUGH FAR
NE OH/NW PA. SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF OCCLUDING AND EXPECT THE
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS MORNING
ANYWHERE...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES EXIST ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA. SO FAR CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE FRONT...BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING. OVERALL THREAT GONE BY MIDDAY AND WE BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
CLEARING/DRYING AND THE GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO WARM NICELY TODAY AND HAVE
GENERALLY GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...BUT THREAT FOR THE STRONGER GUSTS
WILL BE OVER MID EVENING/SUNSET. NO PLANS TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE ENDING TIME. LOOKING FOR LOWS RIGHT AROUND 40...WITH COLDER
AIR JUST SEEPING INTO THE REGION.
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS COLD AIR ALOFT MAKES BETTER PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT...FOCUSED MORE SO ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER WE MIGHT
GET ANY THUNDER OUT OF IT TOO. WILL GO WITH MID/UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS...RIGHT ALONG WITH GUIDANCE.
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT TEMPS ALOFT/THICKNESSES BEGIN TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
LITTLE/NOTHING IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
WE SLOWLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT
WITH A FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE...RETAIN THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS ON EITHER SIDE OF 40 NEAR THE LAKE...MID 40S WELL
INLAND.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE MIDWEST HEADED TO
THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON
SATURDAY...BUT COOL. WE MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF ANY PRECIP SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW CHILLY WE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY EMBEDDED IN A GENERAL UPPER TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN STATES. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD BE -8 TO -12C
SO THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF A COOL SNAP. MODELS SHOW
POCKETS OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA WITH THE LOW AS WELL AS A NWLY FLOW
OFF THE LAKE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE THERE. FOR THIS WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES WITH SNOW THE PRIMARY PTYPE IN THE
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN IN ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS SUNDAY
NIGHT THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKES BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE. WITH 850MB
TEMPS AGAIN WILL BELOW 00C WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. NO CHANGE MONDAY. TUESDAY
A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A WARM FRONT
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT OVERRUNNING PRECIP
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN
SOUGH AND A MIX POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO MOSTLY
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES. TEMPS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WARMING TO THE MID 50S BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW INTO WI WITH WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESE INTO NRN OHIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AND AFFECT
MAINLY KERI HOWEVER THE SERN FRINGE WILL LIKELY BRUSH KCAK AND
KYNG BRIEFLY. THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN
INDIANA CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE AND
COULD AFFECT KTOL BUT OTHERWISE MAY NOT END UP AFFECTING THE AREA
EARLY ON. LATER IN THE MORNING HOWEVER THE HRRR HAS THIS
REDEVELOPING AND AFFECTING KCLE AND KERI SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO WATCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH LLWS FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. OTHERWISE
FOR THE DAY EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
HOWEVER SW WINDS WILL INCREASE GUSTING TO POSSIBLY 40-45KTS WEST
AND 35KTS OR SO EAST.
OUTLOOK...A CHANCE FOR NON VFR IN SHRA THU. NON VFR LIKELY FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE PREDAWN AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO WI. COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TODAY TURNING WINDS TO THE SW AND INCREASING INTO THE MID 20
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS HIGHEST WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DROPS BACK TO THE MID TEENS TONIGHT BUT INCREASES INTO THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE LOW DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN FRIDAY TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SATURDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
REGION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NORTH BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT AS IS. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO EXTEND INTO/THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR OHZ003-006>011-017>020-027>030-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ142>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ146-147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
128 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE TO
WISCONSIN BY MORNING. A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SAT PIX SHOW BAND OF CLOUDS THAT APPEAR TO BE FORMING FROM SRN
LAKE MI SE INTO W CNTRL OH. THIS MAY BE THE BEGINNING OF THE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND IN THE NW CO`S AND QUICKLY PROGRESS EAST
INTO NW PA BY 09Z. SOME OF THE LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM THE
ACTIVITY IN NRN IL SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE FAR NW CO`S BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. WILL BACK DOWN POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CO`S AS THE NEAR TERM
MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE OR NO QPF THERE.
NOT EXPECTING TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF
CHANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW THAN THE NAM.
THE SURFACE LOW OVER WI WILL STILL BE DEEPENING INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND LOCAL SCHEMES ARE SHOWING THAT WIND ADVISORY TYPE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO TIERS OF
COUNTIES. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK EAST OF KCLE. WILL HANG ON TO
THUNDER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN THE MORNING BUT REALLY EXPECT IT
TO BE OVER BY 12Z. BY 18Z ALL BUT NW PA SHOULD BE DRY. WINDS
SHOULD COME DOWN QUICK LATE IN THE DAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE DRY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THURSDAY AS THERE HAS
BEEN ALL WEEK. THE SLOW MOVING LOW TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE LOW WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT AND IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
FRIDAY. DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL DRY THINGS
OUT.
IT WILL BE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO
NORMAL ON FRIDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO
START THE EXTENDED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. THE AIRMASS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE FEATURE AND SOME
ADJUSTMENT IS LIKELY IN THIS TRACK. DID CONTINUE WITH SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO COOL WITH TEMPERATURES EVEN MARGINAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO WARM AS THE FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW INTO WI WITH WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESE INTO NRN OHIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AND AFFECT
MAINLY KERI HOWEVER THE SERN FRINGE WILL LIKELY BRUSH KCAK AND
KYNG BRIEFLY. THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN
INDIANA CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE AND
COULD AFFECT KTOL BUT OTHERWISE MAY NOT END UP AFFECTING THE AREA
EARLY ON. LATER IN THE MORNING HOWEVER THE HRRR HAS THIS
REDEVELOPING AND AFFECTING KCLE AND KERI SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO WATCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH LLWS FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. OTHERWISE
FOR THE DAY EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
HOWEVER SW WINDS WILL INCREASE GUSTING TO POSSIBLY 40-45KTS WEST
AND 35KTS OR SO EAST.
OUTLOOK...A CHANCE FOR NON VFR IN SHRA THU. NON VFR LIKELY FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN BASIN FOR A BRIEF WINDOW LATE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN BASIN STARTING AT 12Z AND CENTRAL BASIN AT 16Z AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD ON THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF LAKE INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CONTINUING. WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
LIGHT WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ142>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ146-147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PENDLETON OR
1035 PM PDT TUE MAR 15 2016
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OFFSHORE THIS EVENING
AND A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW IS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
RADAR IS SHOWING STEADILY DIMINISHING RETURNS, MAINLY OVER THE
CASCADES, THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS. ADDITIONALLY, THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RUC MODELS ARE NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE CUT
BACK ON THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WAVE COMING ASHORE LATER TONIGHT HEADING FOR
THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. HAVE LEFT A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THOSE AREAS AND TRIMMED BACK
ON PRECIP ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A DEGREE
OR SO. MADE SOME MINOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY OUT. PERRY
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MOISTURE AND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO RIDE OVER
AN OFFSHORE RIDGE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY SUBSIDED THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH, BUT SOME MODELS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK WAVE COMING ASHORE AND THAT MAY SET OFF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AT VARYING PERIODS FROM 08Z TO 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KYKM AND KPSC. KRDM AND KBDN MAY GET A RAIN/SNOW MIX. DURING
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AND SNOW MAY BRING
MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR BRIEF PERIODS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASIDE FROM SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT KDLS FROM 21Z-03Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERRY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM PDT TUE MAR 15 2016/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE U.S. WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS SUCH, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. INITIALLY THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST RESULTING IN
VARYING COVERAGES OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWER CHANCES
OVER OUR OREGON ZONES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS
WILL RUN BETWEEN 1500 AND 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, THUS EXPECT 2 INCHES OR LESS
SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL DRY OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THUS WILL SEE THE SHOWER CHANCES END WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST
LOCATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER
DUE TO CLEARER CONDITIONS. 90
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT COOLER...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EACH DAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
AT THIS POINT WE START TO BRING POPS BACK INTO THE MIX AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO SPIN MOISTURE BACK TO
THE AREA. THIS IS BASED ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION...HOWEVER THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST ABOUT A 24-36 DELAY IN THE TROUGH...AND
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AIR. CURRENTLY ALL MODELS AGREE THAT BY MONDAY
WE CAN EXPECT INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND SNOW LEVELS DOWN
AROUND 4-5KFT. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 34 51 30 51 / 20 30 0 0
ALW 37 52 34 54 / 20 20 0 0
PSC 35 54 30 55 / 10 10 0 0
YKM 30 55 26 54 / 10 10 0 0
HRI 35 54 28 55 / 20 10 0 0
ELN 30 51 28 51 / 10 0 0 0
RDM 29 49 23 51 / 20 20 0 0
LGD 31 48 28 50 / 30 30 10 10
GCD 31 49 25 49 / 30 20 10 0
DLS 38 55 34 55 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
83/89/89
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1220 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...A LOWERED DECK OF STRATUS BETWEEN 600 AND 1100 FEET IS
AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA...AND
THIS CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORMATION OF FOG FOR THE
REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS. RATHER THAN STICK WITH PREVAILING FOG
...A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORTHCOMING TAFS...AS WINDS
AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON THE FOG. FULL VFR WILL
LIKELY RETURN AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RISING CEILINGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...THE HRRR AND NAM...FOR EXAMPLE...SHOW A DEFINITE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE LOWER VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH DAWN.
THIS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT CEILINGS...WHICH WILL DIVE TO IFR...BUT
WINDS WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE...ESPECIALLY IN FOG FORMATION. WINDS
WILL BACK SLIGHTLY...TURNING FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OR EAST AND
WEAKENING. THE GFS GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM WITH
A FEW HOURS OF DENSE FOG AROUND DAWN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
THIS TAF SET REFLECTS THE NOTED TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE SHORT TERM
WILL EXPERIENCE QUIET WEATHER WITH NO RAIN ANTICIPATED. MAIN
WEATHER ELEMENTS OF CONCERN WILL BE DAYTIME HAZE AND OVERNIGHT
EARLY MORNING FOG AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WEDNESDAY FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO KEEP ANY IMPACTS TO OUR
NORTH. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT HOWEVER WILL WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH MUCH LESS WIND IN THE FORECAST THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM.
THE SEASONAL AGRICULTURAL BURNS HAVE STARTED IN SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH
THE SMOKE BEING DIRECTING NORTH INTO SOUTH TEXAS WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE SMOKE IS PRODUCING HAZY CONDITIONS AND MODERATE
TO POOR AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS. NOT UNTIL THE ANTICIPATED COLD
FRONT FRIDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...WILL THE AREA SEE ANY
REDUCTION IN THE HAZY CONDITIONS. THE HAZE WILL MIX DOWN AND COMBINE
WITH DEVELOPING FOG OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS
AND WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH ELEMENTS WILL
LOWER VISIBILITIES TO ABOUT 1 MILE OR LESS. THE SIGNAL AMONG THE
MODELS IS NOT DEFINITE ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH WINDS
NOT GOING COMPLETELY CALM. EXPECTING A LAYER OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP
WHICH MIGHT BE PRETTY LOW AND HANG IN MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING
UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING HELPS MIX THROUGH THE SURFACE INVERSION.
OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER...WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS RUNNING 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THEN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND THE CONTINUED THICKER CIRRUS REDUCING SOME OF THE
NEAR SPRING EQUINOX HEATING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...FRONT BEGINNING TO SAG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY...WITH SOUTHWARD MOTION SLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
FRONT LOOKS TO BRIEFLY STALL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THROUGH ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POP CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD...PUSHED BY SFC HIGH BEHIND IT. LATER WEEKEND EVENTS ARE
INCONSISTENT...AS THEY HINGE ON LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE NC
COAST. SLOWER MODELS DEVELOP THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH
IN TURN HELPS THE SFC RIDGE DIG FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH
TEXAS...PUSHING MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION. FASTER MODELS HAVE THE
LOW DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA...WHICH IN TURN DRAG THE SFC
HIGH MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY...KEEPING
THE FRONT REMNANTS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE. USING A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD FORECAST...WHICH CURRENTLY COINCIDES WITH A ECMWF
SOLUTION...THE DRIER AIR DOES BRIEFLY ARRIVE SUNDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. HAVE KEPT SMALL POP CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY BEFORE LOWERING THEM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
PULLING UP STATIONARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECT TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE
FLOW BECOMES MODERATE TONIGHT AND LOW TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY. SEAS TO
STEADILY RESPOND SUBSIDING A FOOT OR TWO OVER INTO WEDNESDAY.
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1124 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS... TRENDS IN CURRENT TAFS STILL LOOK GOOD BUT
HAVE UPDATED FRONTAL TIMING WITH COLD FRONT HAVING CLEARED COLLEGE
STATION AND HUNTSVILLE AND ON TOP OF CONROE AS OF 04Z.
FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS /HOUSTON TERMINALS AND NORTHWARD/...
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM RADIATION FOG AHEAD OF FRONT
WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION... WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL BY 08Z.
FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS /ANGLETON AND GALVESTON/... SEA FOG HAS
KEPT VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE ALONG THE
COAST. HRRR AND SREF TRENDS STILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
TO LIFR VISIBILITIES ALONG THE COAST... BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE FRONT MAY REACH
GALVESTON/ANGLETON BEFORE STALLING AND ALLOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VISIBILITIES BEFORE 12Z.
OTHERWISE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW... WITH VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 3500FT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RETURN FLOW
RESUMES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT... WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A RETURN TO
MVFR CONDITIONS BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 56 82 61 78 60 / 10 10 10 40 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 62 82 64 79 62 / 10 10 10 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 76 67 74 65 / 10 10 10 20 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
925 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS EXPIRE AS ONLY SPOTTY
LIGHT SNOW REMAINS AS THE TROUGH HAS PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE AREA.
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE AGAIN...AND HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUALLY SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE PRECIP/SNOW AMOUNTS THAN
FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOW AN AREA OF MODERATE MID LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH BANDED SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AS WELL. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH 9 AM MDT THIS
MORNING. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER ZONES 41..46
AND 47 UNTIL 9 AM AS WELL. GOOD SUBSIDENCE PROGGED LATER THIS
MORNING SO DECREASING SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE STILL SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
BUT NOT SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...THE
REST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRIER AND WINDY. NO FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED RH
VALUES THIS AFTN AND ALTHOUGH WINDY...NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS ANOTHER
JET MAX APPROACHES FM THE NORTHWEST. WILL KEEP SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE MAY INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TOWARDS 12Z. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WINDY EARLY BUT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 03Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST U.S. AND THE HIGH
OVER LOW TO THE WEST OF IT OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES. A
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES GETS SOMEWHAT
SHEARED APART AS IT MOVE NEARS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEND TO AGREE
WITH THE ECMWF AS IT DIGS THE TROUGH A LITTLE MORE SOUTH THAN THE
GFS.
NOW FOR THE DETAILS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 100 KNOT JET OVER THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THAT
WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
WEAK THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNLESS THE TROUGH DIGS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN IS FORECASTED BY THE MODELS. WITH THE JET AND UPSLOPE
FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT SNOW INTO FRIDAY. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING
WITH THIS PATTERN. MOST OF THEM HAVE THE BAND OF SNOW FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR FRIDAY...NOT MUCH AGREEMENT WHERE THE
SNOW WILL OCCUR. SNOWFALL TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PUSH THE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BE COOL YET WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY LOWER 70S FOR MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
COLORADO. A PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INLAND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS
DRY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH REMAINS TOO FAR WEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO GIVE WAY TO STRONGER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS...SHOULD BE ALL WNW BY 17Z. EXPECT SOME GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS
TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...RETURNING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z. WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE WNW AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z...BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS
THAN THE LAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
352 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOW AN AREA OF MODERATE MID LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH BANDED SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AS WELL. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH 9 AM MDT THIS
MORNING. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER ZONES 41..46
AND 47 UNTIL 9 AM AS WELL. GOOD SUBSIDENCE PROGGED LATER THIS
MORNING SO DECREASING SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE STILL SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
BUT NOT SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...THE
REST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRIER AND WINDY. NO FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED RH
VALUES THIS AFTN AND ALTHOUGH WINDY...NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS ANOTHER
JET MAX APPROACHES FM THE NORTHWEST. WILL KEEP SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE MAY INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TOWARDS 12Z. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WINDY EARLY BUT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 03Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST U.S. AND THE HIGH
OVER LOW TO THE WEST OF IT OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES. A
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES GETS SOMEWHAT
SHEARED APART AS IT MOVE NEARS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEND TO AGREE
WITH THE ECMWF AS IT DIGS THE TROUGH A LITTLE MORE SOUTH THAN THE
GFS.
NOW FOR THE DETAILS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 100 KNOT JET OVER THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THAT
WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
WEAK THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNLESS THE TROUGH DIGS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN IS FORECASTED BY THE MODELS. WITH THE JET AND UPSLOPE
FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT SNOW INTO FRIDAY. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING
WITH THIS PATTERN. MOST OF THEM HAVE THE BAND OF SNOW FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR FRIDAY...NOT MUCH AGREEMENT WHERE THE
SNOW WILL OCCUR. SNOWFALL TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PUSH THE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BE COOL YET WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY LOWER 70S FOR MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
COLORADO. A PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INLAND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS
DRY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH REMAINS TOO FAR WEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. BKN MID LEVEL CIGS
WILL LINGER THOUGH 15Z WITH SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF
DENVER. WL KEEP VCSH IN KAPA AND MAYBE BRIEF ILS RESTRICTION WITH
BKN CIGS AROUND 5KFT AGL UNTIL 15Z THEN IMPROVING CIGS THEREAFTER.
SWLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER WNWLY WINDS
AFTER 15Z. EXPECT SOME GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS TO DEVELOP BY THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ031-
033-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
621 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Low pressure system that impacted the area yesterday continues to
deepen eastward this morning towards the Great Lakes region. Strong
winds coming in the backside of the system have translated to the
sfc with westerly winds at around 10 mph at the current hour.
Meanwhile an area of sfc high pressure over western Kansas has
gradually spread toward the CWA overnight, dropping dewpoints over
central KS into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
For today, main concern will be the critical fire weather over most
of the CWA. Additional details are listed in the Fire Weather
Section below. Westerly winds are expected to increase by mid
afternoon as diurnal heating and drier air within the boundary layer
push 30 kt winds towards the sfc. Latest runs of the GFS and NAM are
not as strong with the unidirectional westerly winds compared to the
latest runs of the HRRR and RUC. Dependent on how deep the boundary
layer is able to mix out will determine how strong winds become. I
went with a blend of the mean values using a slight preference for
the RUC and HRRR resulting in sustained sfc speeds at 15 to 25 mph.
Cloud cover will also be a determining factor as a mid level impulse
tracks through southeast KS by the afternoon. The associated jet
streak with this wave may help sustain the stronger winds despite
the increasing cloud cover. Highs today are overall cooler behind
the cold front with readings in the lower 60s. Skies clear tonight
with winds becoming light. Lows near freezing are anticipated,
ranging from the lower to middle 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
West to northwest flow aloft will continue Thursday through Monday.
Temperatures will be mild on Thursday with a continued very dry
airmass, ample sunshine, and very deep mixing of the boundary layer.
This will result in another day of very dry surface RH although
winds should be lighter than on Wednesday. Details regarding this
and other fire weather can be found below in the fire weather
section. Temperatures are likely to range from the upper 50s north
to the mid 60s in east central KS.
Changes are expected Thursday night into Friday as an upper low
builds over the northern Plains and moderate cold advection builds
into Kansas. The airmass on Thursday night will start out very dry,
but all model guidance is suggesting a zone of strong frontogenesis
associated with this cold advection over parts of the forecast area.
The temperature profile associated with the frontogenesis region
will also lend itself to supporting slantwise and vertical
instability. So, while there will be a lot of dry air to overcome,
it seems likely that given the magnitude of vertical motion a band
of light to moderate precipitation will develop from northwest into
central and southeast Kansas through the night and into Friday
morning. The north edge of this precipitation band is likely to have
a very sharp cutoff from no precipitation to moderate precipitation
and there is some uncertainty regarding where that cutoff will be.
Temperature profiles will initially be quite warm, but assuming the
wet-bulb effect do see potential for a change over to at least a
period of snow. The best chance for this to occur will be in areas
where the precipitation is longest-lived to have the best chance to
wet-bulb as cool as possible. Given moderate rates, there is some
potential for minor accumulation in a band across the area, with the
best chance probably south of a Minneapolis to Abilene to Garnett
line.
The main upper low will move just northeast of the area late
Saturday and see some small potential sprinkles mainly in eastern
Kansas but have kept the forecast dry at this time. Temperatures
will be cooler but only slightly below normal through the weekend
before another big warm-up is expected going into next week. There
is a very strong signal for the upper flow pattern to build a ridge
into the plains on Monday and then turn to southwesterly flow by
Tuesday and Wednesday. This would likely bring temperatures back
into the 70s while opening the Gulf to northward moisture
transport.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR prevails as westerly winds increase aft 16Z initially at 10 to
13 kts sustained, rising between 15 to 18 kts sustained aft
19Z.Winds calm aft 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Per the discussion above, winds are the main uncertainty for today
while the RH values very likely to fall into the 15 to 25 percent
range. Areas over north central KS may even reach the lower teens
percent-wise if deeper mixing is realized. Elsewhere, areas along
the I-70 corridor and points southward are likely to reach the 15
to 20 percent range for RH. Westerly winds are expected to
gradually increase between 15 and 20 mph by mid afternoon. Gusts
between 25 and 30 are most likely to occur in the 1 PM to 4 PM
time frame before quickly dropping off thereafter. Locations to
see these conditions are generally south of Interstate 70 with
some uncertainty towards the northern portions of Republic,
Pottawatomie, Jackson, and Jefferson counties where the winds may
be not as gusty despite the low RH values. Overall, the short term
guidance favors a more deeply mixed boundary layer with the
stronger winds, so have coordinated with surrounding offices to
issue a Red Flag Warning in effect this afternoon through 7 PM.
RH on Thursday is expected to be very dry once again, likely in the
13 to 23 percent range with the highest values in far northeast
Kansas. The difference on Thursday is the expectation for lighter
winds. The pressure gradient is likely to weaken significantly by
Thursday with sustained winds in the 5 to 15 mph range through the
day. The wild card is the potential for gusts in the very-well-
mixed low levels. Peak mixing heights are likely to be in the
7000-10000 foot range with stronger winds (greater than 30 kts)
present above 8000 feet. This presents a small chance for brief
but stronger gusts to mix down to the surface. With that in mind,
the potential is not high enough to be too concerned with right
now and will most likely see 5-15 mph winds with occasional
sporadic gusts to around 20 mph.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ008-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Bowen
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen/Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
806 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS TRENDS. SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF
THE AREA SHORTLY. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS AN ADJUSTMENT TO DEW POINTS
FOR THE DROP TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING EAST THROUGH KY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF
3 AM IT REACHED FROM NEAR BOWLING GREEN TO JUST WEST OF
LOUISVILLE. ISOLATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING NEAR
THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN ABOUT 5 AM AND 8 AM. BEHIND IT...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MIXING.
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PROPELLED THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED. BOTH
MODELS START THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
PLUNGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FLOW
CHANGES A BIT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT THE MODELS
HAVE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WESTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A VIGOROUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES SO...THE MODELS HAVE THIS
SMALLER SCALE SYSTEM PHASING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH. THESE TWO SYSTEMS...ONCE
THEY COMBINE...ARE FORECAST TO TAP INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
MOISTURE BEFORE THE PHASED LOW MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
BEING THE NEW WORK WEEK. BEFORE THIS PHASING HAPPENS...WE CAN
EXPECT THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TO TAP JUST ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY OVER THE WEEKEND...AS MUCH COOLER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO
AN END SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE SMALL SCALE WAVE MERGES WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MENTIONED BEFORE.
THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION...SO WE WILL LIKELY BE SEEING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...OR PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES...FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS TO START OFF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING US A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. IN
FACT...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WE MAY SEE HIGHS IN CLIMBING TO AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY. EACH
NIGHT DURING THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WITH MIN VALUES IN THE 30S EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL
NIGHTS. SOME OUR DEEPER AND NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS MAY EVEN FALL
TO AROUND 32 THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE COLD AS WELL...AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR
AREA...ALLOWING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO SPILL INTO THE REGION.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM COULD MORE PRECIPITATION TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...BUT THERE IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT TO PUT MUCH STOCK
IN WHAT THE WEATHER MAY OR MAY NOT BE DOING NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST
OUT OF THE AREA NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD...TAKING CEILINGS OF
3.5-9K FT AGL WITH IT AND LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TOPPING 20
KTS TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
FIRE WX WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS
POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR A RFW...BUT
IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
JUST SHY OF CRITICAL VALUES...WITH THE BLUEGRASS REGION BEING
CLOSEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY DROP BELOW THE 25 PERCENT
THRESHOLD...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
FIRE WEATHER...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
647 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated 530 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
Narrow, broken line of showers and T-storms weakened east of I-65,
and what`s left of it should be pushing out of our eastern counties
by 6 AM EDT. Going forecast had a good handle on this already, but a
quick update will be issued to clean up the early morning wording.
May also need to beef up the wind forecast slightly, with a solid 15-
20 mph showing up in quite a few observations.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
Cold front is currently making its way across southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, just reaching the I-65 corridor at 07Z. A couple
of storms over southern Indiana currently approaching severe limits
in an environment of elevated instability and low wet-bulb zero
heights. Low-level wind fields are also frisky enough that we`ll
need to watch for gusty winds as well as marginal severe hail, but
these should exit to the north and east by daybreak. Will mention
isolated/scattered storms in a pre-1st period, but mostly handle it
through short-fuse products.
The rest of the day will be mostly sunny and breezy as the surface
low wraps up over the Great Lakes, leaving a tight westerly gradient
over the Ohio Valley. Cold advection will be stronger aloft than at
the surface, so expect deep mixing, which will bring down 30 mph
gusts at times, especially across southern Indiana. Nocturnal
cooling will be limited tonight as the winds stay up, with Thursday
looking fairly similar to today, only a bit less breezy and a few
degrees cooler. Gradient finally starts to relax late Thursday as
the surface ridge builds in from the west.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
Expect below normal temps Friday through the weekend as a series of
upper disturbances carves out a mean trof over the eastern CONUS.
Main challenge will be timing of precip chances, and confidence is
low given the usual difficulty in timing progressive NW flow, and
initial lack of available moisture.
Will keep things dry through Friday, even with a weak surface front
dropping through, as precipitable water will take a while to come up
from roughly a quarter inch. By Friday night we finally start to see
some saturation, so will introduce slight chance POPs mainly in the
south as the front hangs up.
Will carry low-end chance POPs for most of the weekend, with GFS and
ECMWF both progging a closed low tracking across Illinois/Indiana
Saturday night. Not much phasing with the southern stream, but this
trajectory is far enough south and could cool the thermal profiles
enough to support mixed precip within a brief window late Sat night
or early Sun morning. Daytime temps will struggle to reach 50 over
the weekend, with morning lows just barely above freezing.
Precip chances will wane Sunday night as the trof axis pushes to our
east, but cooler than normal temps will continue into Monday with
surface high pressure settling along the Gulf Coast. Milder temps
return on Tuesday as upper ridging builds from the southwest.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
Cold front has pushed through central Kentucky, leaving some
residual strato-cu across SDF and LEX that will present an
initialization problem. Mitigating factor is that it`s VFR, and
there`s a very good chance that it will clear by TAF valid time as
drier air spills into the Ohio Valley.
Once that cloud deck clears out, other than a mid-level deck this
evening, it`s a wind forecast. Expect sustained winds around 15 kt
for most of the day, with prevailing gusts in the 20-25 kt range.
With unusually deep mixing, can`t rule out the odd 30 kt gust, and
this wind direction is especially tricky at SDF given the
orientation perpendicular to the main runways.
Gusts should slack off an hour or so before sunset, but SDF will
pick back up Thursday mid-morning in the planning period, albeit not
as strong as today.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......RAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
532 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated 530 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
Narrow, broken line of showers and T-storms weakened east of I-65,
and what`s left of it should be pushing out of our eastern counties
by 6 AM EDT. Going forecast had a good handle on this already, but a
quick update will be issued to clean up the early morning wording.
May also need to beef up the wind forecast slightly, with a solid 15-
20 mph showing up in quite a few observations.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
Cold front is currently making its way across southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, just reaching the I-65 corridor at 07Z. A couple
of storms over southern Indiana currently approaching severe limits
in an environment of elevated instability and low wet-bulb zero
heights. Low-level wind fields are also frisky enough that we`ll
need to watch for gusty winds as well as marginal severe hail, but
these should exit to the north and east by daybreak. Will mention
isolated/scattered storms in a pre-1st period, but mostly handle it
through short-fuse products.
The rest of the day will be mostly sunny and breezy as the surface
low wraps up over the Great Lakes, leaving a tight westerly gradient
over the Ohio Valley. Cold advection will be stronger aloft than at
the surface, so expect deep mixing, which will bring down 30 mph
gusts at times, especially across southern Indiana. Nocturnal
cooling will be limited tonight as the winds stay up, with Thursday
looking fairly similar to today, only a bit less breezy and a few
degrees cooler. Gradient finally starts to relax late Thursday as
the surface ridge builds in from the west.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
Expect below normal temps Friday through the weekend as a series of
upper disturbances carves out a mean trof over the eastern CONUS.
Main challenge will be timing of precip chances, and confidence is
low given the usual difficulty in timing progressive NW flow, and
initial lack of available moisture.
Will keep things dry through Friday, even with a weak surface front
dropping through, as precipitable water will take a while to come up
from roughly a quarter inch. By Friday night we finally start to see
some saturation, so will introduce slight chance POPs mainly in the
south as the front hangs up.
Will carry low-end chance POPs for most of the weekend, with GFS and
ECMWF both progging a closed low tracking across Illinois/Indiana
Saturday night. Not much phasing with the southern stream, but this
trajectory is far enough south and could cool the thermal profiles
enough to support mixed precip within a brief window late Sat night
or early Sun morning. Daytime temps will struggle to reach 50 over
the weekend, with morning lows just barely above freezing.
Precip chances will wane Sunday night as the trof axis pushes to our
east, but cooler than normal temps will continue into Monday with
surface high pressure settling along the Gulf Coast. Milder temps
return on Tuesday as upper ridging builds from the southwest.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 123 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016
A cold front will quickly slide through the TAF sites over the next
few hours. Although moisture starved, an isolated shower or storm
could develop. At this point, have elected to continue keeping the
TAF sites dry as likelihood of one impacting a terminal is pretty
low. Expect steady SW winds to continue ahead of the cold front,
along with a few more hours of LLWS below 1700 feet AGL.
LLWS threat and any Bkn ceiling around 4-5 K feet quickly subsides
between 4 and 5 AM EST with the passage of the front. An hour or two
of gusty SW winds will then continue through the pre-dawn hours
behind the front.
Clear skies return for sunrise with WSW winds around 10 to 15 mph.
These will increase in magnitude by mid to late morning with gusts
up in the 25-30 mph through the afternoon. Winds then slacken to SW
around 5 to 10 mph early this evening.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
300 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Above average confidence in the long term due to mostly quiet
weather and relatively good model agreement.
Through the short term period the region remains in either zonal or
broad cyclonic flow aloft with the Gulf of Mexico cut off for most
of the period so moisture will be limited.
A few high clouds are expected to stream across the area today,
otherwise high pressure should provide another pleasant day for the
lower Ohio valley.
The passage of a weak H5 ripple of energy this afternoon and evening
should do nothing more than bring a layer of mid clouds across the
area. The HRRR implies some weak radar returns across the middle of
our CWA (W-E) in that time frame, but with clouds bases so high, any
precipitation should evaporate before reaching the ground. Besides,
with the exception of the SREF, all deterministic model runs keep it
dry so will go dry for now.
High pressure is expected to keep the region dry and cooler through
Friday morning. Precipitation chances make their way back into the
forecast Friday afternoon with the approach of a decent H5 short
wave and slightly higher deep layer moisture. Precipitation chances
increase slightly Friday night with the passage of said short wave.
Above normal temperatures during the first half of the short term
period are expected to cool to near normal in the second half of the
period.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Medium range models indicate that mid/upper level energy pinched off
from an elongated low previously over the Great Lakes will begin to
dig into the central CONUS by the beginning of the extended forecast
period. A decent surface pressure gradient across the PAH forecast
area between high pressure in the central Plains and a low off the
FL coast will keep a flow of dry cool air in the low levels. Thus,
it will be somewhat difficult to get much in the way of measurable
rain from the system as it passes right over our region early
Sunday. We will go with a slight chance of measurable rainfall with
this event.
After Sunday, northern stream mid/upper level shortwave energy is
progged to dominate much of the eastern CONUS and sweep away the
aforementioned system to the east. Dry weather should prevail across
the PAH forecast area through at least Tuesday as the mid/upper flow
transitions to more of a ridging pattern. Tuesday (Day 7) should be
breezy as another surface pressure gradient sets up between an
approaching low pressure/frontal system to the west and high
pressure along the Atlantic seaboard. Dry low level return flow will
result in a warming trend from 30s/50s to 40s/60s by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
The cold front should reach KPAH and KEVV by the beginning of the
period, but may not reach KOWB until 07Z. Southwest winds will
gust into the 20kts ahead of the front, but the gusts will
increase a bit for an hour or two from the west behind the front.
The cap appears to be winning out, so the front should be dry.
Winds will eventually settle in under 10kts overnight and into the
morning hours. West southwest winds will increase toward midday,
with some gusts 20-25kts possible.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
843 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A
FRIDAY COLD FRONT RETURNS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
845 AM...ADJUSTED POPS/WX FOR LATEST HRRR RUN. AT 12Z...FRONT WAS
JUST WEST OF THE CWA...AND IT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER AS 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY ONCE SURFACE-BASED
INVERSION MIXES OUT. TEMPS UPDATED WITH LATEST NEAR-TERM
GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT DROP IN MAX TEMPS IN SOME AREAS.
CL
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACRS UPR MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES RGN THRU THU. SHORTWAVES ADVANCING ARND THE LOW SHOULD KEEP
OCNL SHOWER CHCS IN THE FCST. THE UPR LOW IS EXPD TO OPEN INTO A
TROF AND ADVANCE ACRS THE RGN THU NGT/FRI...ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. SHOWER CHCS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AND
FRONT...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS PSBL IN COLD ADVECTION. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LVLS BY FRI.
GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING ADJUSTED SREF AND SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD ERN CONUS UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP THRU ERLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMP REDUCTION BACK TWD LATE WINTER AVGS. PRECIP...
INCLUDING SOME SNOW SHOWERS...SPPRTG SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
MINIMAL. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...TWEAKED FOR COLLABORATION...WAS
USED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH GENL VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD...
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS WL BE PLAGUED BY MORNING SHOWERS...LLVL WIND
SHEAR...AND EVENTUALLY SFC GUSTS ARND 25 KTS BY AFTN.
STRONG LOW PRES WL MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THIS MRNG...PULLING
AN OCCLUDING FRONT ACRS THE UPR OH REGION AND GENERATING THE
CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY FM PIT
NORTH AND EASTWARD. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WERE THUS CONFINED TO THE I
80 CORRIDOR PORTS AND LBE...WITH A VICINITY MENTIONED OTHERWISE.
LLVL WIND SHEAR WAS INCLUDED FOR PORTS SOUTH OF FKL AND DUJ AS
AS A LLVL JET TRAVERSES THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE WESTERN
LAKES LLOW.
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH SFC GUSTS NR 25
KTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WIND VEERS TWD THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH...AND IN THE WAKE OF A THURSDAY
NIGHT COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1132 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD BEFORE A STRONG LATE-SEASON
COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW TO MANY AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR LATE THIS MORNING IS DISPLAYING SEVERAL BROKEN LINES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE
ARE ORIENTED WITHIN A REGION OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS AND ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE TRIPLE POINT
BEING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. RADAR ELEVATION SLICES SHOW
THAT 40-50 DBZ CORE IS EXTENDING ABOVE THE 0C LEVEL SO SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. SEVERAL REPORTS
OF THIS HAVE RECENTLY COME INTO THE OFFICE.
FOLLOWING RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK TODAY BEFORE
FALLING LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF LOWER
MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING WILL OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A KICKER TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH QUEBEC. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER
ASCENT WILL REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BEGIN BY EARLY TO MID MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A PAIR OF
SUBTLE TROUGHS CROSSING THE AREA.
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND INLAND OF STABLE LAKE SHADOWS FOUND NORTHEAST OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO AS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...FORCING STRONG LAPSE RATES. INSTABILITY MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY FROM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A STABLE LAKE SHADOW SHOULD KEEP THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER INCLUDING BUFFALO MAINLY DRY...AND ALSO NEAR WATERTOWN AS
WELL.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN MODERATELY
STRONG WITH 40-50 KNOTS JUST OFF THE DECK. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND FUNNELING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-40
KNOT RANGE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER. THE GFS IS 5-10 KNOTS STRONGER
WITH THE WIND FIELD THAN THE NAM...AND IF THE STRONGER GFS VERIFIES
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
MAINE...WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY SHARPENING AND DIGGING SOUTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIP COVERAGE PEAKING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS DPVA AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL COOL THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO QUICKLY CHANGE RAIN
TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MORE THAN COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON FRIDAY.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT THE AIRMASS GROWS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
LAKE RESPONSE ON FRIDAY AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO
AROUND 7K FEET. THIS WILL SUPPORT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EXPECT A COATING TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION WITH
AN ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE DRAMATICALLY
COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH MID 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WILL END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AIRMASS BECOMES VERY DRY.
EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE RETURN OF
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING A CONSTANT FEED OF FRESH CANADIAN AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE TO GO ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS NOW IN KEEPING A COASTAL LOW MUCH
TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INSTEAD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
SOME LOCAL MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA IN THE
WESTERN TAFS TO COVER FOR THIS. SOME SMALL HAIL HAS ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN THE BUFFALO AREA AND CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN STRONGER
CORES AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. THESE TSTMS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
EAST.
TONIGHT EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT ALONG
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE
FOR KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SEVERAL SHORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BRINGING A
MODERATE CHOP TO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A 4 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN NEARSHORE ZONES...HOWEVER
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND HIGHER WAVES ABOVE 3 FEET
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AFTER TODAY`S SYSTEM...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
ON THE LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...LIKELY BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
928 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD BEFORE A STRONG LATE-SEASON
COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW TO MANY AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY INTO THE FINGER LAKES AT 9AM
THIS MORNING. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION FROM AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT. EARLIER STRONGER CONVECTION HAS SINCE WEAKENED
AS IT MOVED OUT AHEAD OF A REGION OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO CONTINUE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CNY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WHILE CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN/FALL APART PER RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE.
OFF TO THE WEST...ANOTHER LINE OR BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IS
ORIENTED FROM LAKE HURON SOUTH TO NE OHIO ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT WITH THE TRIPLE POINT BEING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BRING IN THIS SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK AND
AND AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS ALSO
FOLLOWS TO WELL PERFORMING HRRR GUIDANCE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK TODAY BEFORE
FALLING LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF LOWER
MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING WILL OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A KICKER TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH QUEBEC. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER
ASCENT WILL REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BEGIN BY EARLY TO MID MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A PAIR OF
SUBTLE TROUGHS CROSSING THE AREA.
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND INLAND OF STABLE LAKE SHADOWS FOUND NORTHEAST OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO AS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...FORCING STRONG LAPSE RATES. INSTABILITY MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY FROM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A STABLE LAKE SHADOW SHOULD KEEP THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER INCLUDING BUFFALO MAINLY DRY...AND ALSO NEAR WATERTOWN AS
WELL.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN MODERATELY
STRONG WITH 40-50 KNOTS JUST OFF THE DECK. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND FUNNELING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-40
KNOT RANGE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER. THE GFS IS 5-10 KNOTS STRONGER
WITH THE WIND FIELD THAN THE NAM...AND IF THE STRONGER GFS VERIFIES
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
MAINE...WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY SHARPENING AND DIGGING SOUTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIP COVERAGE PEAKING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS DPVA AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL COOL THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO QUICKLY CHANGE RAIN
TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MORE THAN COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON FRIDAY.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT THE AIRMASS GROWS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
LAKE RESPONSE ON FRIDAY AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO
AROUND 7K FEET. THIS WILL SUPPORT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EXPECT A COATING TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION WITH
AN ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE DRAMATICALLY
COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH MID 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WILL END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AIRMASS BECOMES VERY DRY.
EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE RETURN OF
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING A CONSTANT FEED OF FRESH CANADIAN AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE TO GO ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS NOW IN KEEPING A COASTAL LOW MUCH
TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INSTEAD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
SOME LOCAL MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE SHOWING A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING
AS A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MOVES EAST ALONG AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO A MIX OF IFR/MVFR BY THE
MIDDAY HOUR WHEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AN APPROACHING
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS LINE IS OBSERVED ON RADAR SO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF THIS WILL KEEP VCTS IN THE TAFS. UPDATES WILL BE MADE
AS THIS FURTHER APPROACHES.
TONIGHT EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT ALONG
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FOR KBUF/KIAG/KROC.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SEVERAL SHORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BRINGING A
MODERATE CHOP TO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A 4 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN NEARSHORE ZONES...HOWEVER
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND HIGHER WAVES ABOVE 3 FEET
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AFTER TODAY`S SYSTEM...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
ON THE LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...LIKELY BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1052 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING.
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTHS
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 750-800MB BY MID AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD START TO
MIX INTO THE 40-45 KNOT WIND FIELD ALOFT AND SEE GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE OF 40-50 MPH.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING IN THE EAST. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEER ALONG THE FRONT
IS LEADING TO SOME ROTATION WITH THE STORMS BUT LITTLE TO NO
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE
THREAT. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW SMALL CORES GET HIGH ENOUGH THAT SMALL
HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY BUT ONLY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE WEST ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN TOLEDO
WILL MOSTLY MISS US TO THE NORTH. AFTER SOME BRIEF DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT LATE THIS MORNING...CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAYTIME. RESULTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH GREAT MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY WILL GIVE US
GUSTS THAT MEET/EXCEED 50 MPH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE EXPANDED
THE AREA OF THE WIND ADVISORY FROM NORTHWEST OHIO TO INCLUDE MORE
OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...INCLUDING CLE AND MFD.
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACKED NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO/NW PA OVERNIGHT ARE...AS OF 6 AM...WORKING THROUGH
FAR NW PA. SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF OCCLUDING AND EXPECT THE
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS MORNING
ANYWHERE...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES EXIST ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA. SO FAR CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE FRONT...BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING. OVERALL THREAT GONE BY MIDDAY AND WE BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
CLEARING/DRYING AND THE GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO WARM NICELY TODAY AND HAVE
GENERALLY GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND MORNING POPS WITH THIS EARLY
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...BUT THREAT FOR THE STRONGER GUSTS
WILL BE OVER MID EVENING/SUNSET. NO PLANS TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE ENDING TIME. LOOKING FOR LOWS RIGHT AROUND 40...WITH COLDER
AIR JUST SEEPING INTO THE REGION.
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS COLD AIR ALOFT MAKES BETTER PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT...FOCUSED MORE SO ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER WE MIGHT
GET ANY THUNDER OUT OF IT TOO. WILL GO WITH MID/UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS...RIGHT ALONG WITH GUIDANCE.
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT TEMPS ALOFT/THICKNESSES BEGIN TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
LITTLE/NOTHING IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
WE SLOWLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT
WITH A FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE...RETAIN THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS ON EITHER SIDE OF 40 NEAR THE LAKE...MID 40S WELL
INLAND.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE MIDWEST HEADED TO
THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON
SATURDAY...BUT COOL. WE MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF ANY PRECIP SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW CHILLY WE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY EMBEDDED IN A GENERAL UPPER TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN STATES. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD BE -8 TO -12C
SO THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF A COOL SNAP. MODELS SHOW
POCKETS OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA WITH THE LOW AS WELL AS A NWLY FLOW
OFF THE LAKE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE THERE. FOR THIS WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES WITH SNOW THE PRIMARY PTYPE IN THE
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN IN ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS SUNDAY
NIGHT THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKES BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE. WITH 850MB
TEMPS AGAIN WILL BELOW 00C WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. NO CHANGE MONDAY. TUESDAY
A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A WARM FRONT
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT OVERRUNNING PRECIP
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN
SOUGH AND A MIX POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO MOSTLY
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES. TEMPS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WARMING TO THE MID 50S BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW IN WISCONSIN. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS NOW TO OUR EAST AND
NORTHEAST. OCCLUDED FRONT NOW NEAR A KDFI-KFDY-KMNN LINE MOVING
QUICKLY EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT QUICKLY TURN
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS AS THE FRONT GOES
BY. CURRENT NO PRECIP OCCURRING IN THE AREA WITH OCCLUDED FRONT SO
FAR NOT ACTIVE HOWEVER THE HRRR DOES DEVELOP SHOWERS ON THE
BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST BETWEEN 12 AND
16Z. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING EAST OF KCLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR. HOWEVER SWLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH GUSTS
TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS WEST AND 30 TO 35 KNOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...A CHANCE FOR NON VFR IN SHRA THU EVG THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. NON VFR AGAIN SUNDAY
&&
.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE PREDAWN AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO WI. COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TODAY TURNING WINDS TO THE SW AND INCREASING INTO THE MID 20
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS HIGHEST WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DROPS BACK TO THE MID TEENS TONIGHT BUT INCREASES INTO THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE LOW DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN FRIDAY TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SATURDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
REGION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NORTH BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT AS IS. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO EXTEND INTO/THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>011-
017>020-027>030-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
723 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING.
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH GREAT
MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY WILL GIVE US GUSTS THAT MEET/EXCEED 50 MPH
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF THE WIND
ADVISORY FROM NORTHWEST OHIO TO INCLUDE MORE OF NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...INCLUDING CLE AND MFD.
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACKED NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO/NW PA OVERNIGHT ARE...AS OF 6 AM...WORKING THROUGH
FAR NW PA. SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF OCCLUDING AND EXPECT THE
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS MORNING
ANYWHERE...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES EXIST ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA. SO FAR CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE FRONT...BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING. OVERALL THREAT GONE BY MIDDAY AND WE BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
CLEARING/DRYING AND THE GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO WARM NICELY TODAY AND HAVE
GENERALLY GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND MORNING POPS WITH THIS EARLY
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...BUT THREAT FOR THE STRONGER GUSTS
WILL BE OVER MID EVENING/SUNSET. NO PLANS TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE ENDING TIME. LOOKING FOR LOWS RIGHT AROUND 40...WITH COLDER
AIR JUST SEEPING INTO THE REGION.
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS COLD AIR ALOFT MAKES BETTER PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT...FOCUSED MORE SO ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER WE MIGHT
GET ANY THUNDER OUT OF IT TOO. WILL GO WITH MID/UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS...RIGHT ALONG WITH GUIDANCE.
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT TEMPS ALOFT/THICKNESSES BEGIN TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
LITTLE/NOTHING IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
WE SLOWLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT
WITH A FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE...RETAIN THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS ON EITHER SIDE OF 40 NEAR THE LAKE...MID 40S WELL
INLAND.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE MIDWEST HEADED TO
THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON
SATURDAY...BUT COOL. WE MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF ANY PRECIP SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW CHILLY WE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY EMBEDDED IN A GENERAL UPPER TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN STATES. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD BE -8 TO -12C
SO THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF A COOL SNAP. MODELS SHOW
POCKETS OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA WITH THE LOW AS WELL AS A NWLY FLOW
OFF THE LAKE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE THERE. FOR THIS WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES WITH SNOW THE PRIMARY PTYPE IN THE
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN IN ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS SUNDAY
NIGHT THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKES BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE. WITH 850MB
TEMPS AGAIN WILL BELOW 00C WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. NO CHANGE MONDAY. TUESDAY
A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A WARM FRONT
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT OVERRUNNING PRECIP
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN
SOUGH AND A MIX POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO MOSTLY
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES. TEMPS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WARMING TO THE MID 50S BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW IN WISCONSIN. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS NOW TO OUR EAST AND
NORTHEAST. OCCLUDED FRONT NOW NEAR A KDFI-KFDY-KMNN LINE MOVING
QUICKLY EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT QUICKLY TURN
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS AS THE FRONT GOES
BY. CURRENT NO PRECIP OCCURRING IN THE AREA WITH OCCLUDED FRONT SO
FAR NOT ACTIVE HOWEVER THE HRRR DOES DEVELOP SHOWERS ON THE
BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST BETWEEN 12 AND
16Z. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING EAST OF KCLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR. HOWEVER SWLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH GUSTS
TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS WEST AND 30 TO 35 KNOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...A CHANCE FOR NON VFR IN SHRA THU EVG THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. NON VFR AGAIN SUNDAY
&&
.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE PREDAWN AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO WI. COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TODAY TURNING WINDS TO THE SW AND INCREASING INTO THE MID 20
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS HIGHEST WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DROPS BACK TO THE MID TEENS TONIGHT BUT INCREASES INTO THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE LOW DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN FRIDAY TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SATURDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
REGION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NORTH BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT AS IS. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO EXTEND INTO/THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>011-
017>020-027>030-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ146-147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
639 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING.
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH GREAT
MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY WILL GIVE US GUSTS THAT MEET/EXCEED 50 MPH
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF THE WIND
ADVISORY FROM NORTHWEST OHIO TO INCLUDE MORE OF NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...INCLUDING CLE AND MFD.
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACKED NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO/NW PA OVERNIGHT ARE...AS OF 6 AM...WORKING THROUGH
FAR NW PA. SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF OCCLUDING AND EXPECT THE
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS MORNING
ANYWHERE...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES EXIST ACROSS FAR NE
OH/NW PA. SO FAR CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE FRONT...BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING. OVERALL THREAT GONE BY MIDDAY AND WE BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
CLEARING/DRYING AND THE GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO WARM NICELY TODAY AND HAVE
GENERALLY GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND MORNING POPS WITH THIS EARLY
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...BUT THREAT FOR THE STRONGER GUSTS
WILL BE OVER MID EVENING/SUNSET. NO PLANS TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE ENDING TIME. LOOKING FOR LOWS RIGHT AROUND 40...WITH COLDER
AIR JUST SEEPING INTO THE REGION.
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS COLD AIR ALOFT MAKES BETTER PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT...FOCUSED MORE SO ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER WE MIGHT
GET ANY THUNDER OUT OF IT TOO. WILL GO WITH MID/UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS...RIGHT ALONG WITH GUIDANCE.
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT TEMPS ALOFT/THICKNESSES BEGIN TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
LITTLE/NOTHING IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
WE SLOWLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT
WITH A FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE...RETAIN THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS ON EITHER SIDE OF 40 NEAR THE LAKE...MID 40S WELL
INLAND.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE MIDWEST HEADED TO
THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON
SATURDAY...BUT COOL. WE MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF ANY PRECIP SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW CHILLY WE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY EMBEDDED IN A GENERAL UPPER TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN STATES. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD BE -8 TO -12C
SO THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF A COOL SNAP. MODELS SHOW
POCKETS OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA WITH THE LOW AS WELL AS A NWLY FLOW
OFF THE LAKE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE THERE. FOR THIS WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES WITH SNOW THE PRIMARY PTYPE IN THE
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN IN ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS SUNDAY
NIGHT THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKES BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE. WITH 850MB
TEMPS AGAIN WILL BELOW 00C WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. NO CHANGE MONDAY. TUESDAY
A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DRIVING A WARM FRONT
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT OVERRUNNING PRECIP
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN
SOUGH AND A MIX POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO MOSTLY
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES. TEMPS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WARMING TO THE MID 50S BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW INTO WI WITH WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESE INTO NRN OHIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AND AFFECT
MAINLY KERI HOWEVER THE SERN FRINGE WILL LIKELY BRUSH KCAK AND
KYNG BRIEFLY. THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN
INDIANA CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE AND
COULD AFFECT KTOL BUT OTHERWISE MAY NOT END UP AFFECTING THE AREA
EARLY ON. LATER IN THE MORNING HOWEVER THE HRRR HAS THIS
REDEVELOPING AND AFFECTING KCLE AND KERI SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO WATCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH LLWS FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. OTHERWISE
FOR THE DAY EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
HOWEVER SW WINDS WILL INCREASE GUSTING TO POSSIBLY 40-45KTS WEST
AND 35KTS OR SO EAST.
OUTLOOK...A CHANCE FOR NON VFR IN SHRA THU. NON VFR LIKELY FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE PREDAWN AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO WI. COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TODAY TURNING WINDS TO THE SW AND INCREASING INTO THE MID 20
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS HIGHEST WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DROPS BACK TO THE MID TEENS TONIGHT BUT INCREASES INTO THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE LOW DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN FRIDAY TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SATURDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
REGION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NORTH BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT AS IS. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO EXTEND INTO/THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>011-
017>020-027>030-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ146-147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
735 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 AM UPDATE...
THUNDER CONTINUES INTO THE WRN MTNS...AND NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WRN PA AND ARE MOVING STEADILY INTO THE
CWA...CONTRARY TO THE HRRR AND RAP RUNS OF THE PAST FEW CYCLES.
UPPED POPS IN THE FIRST FEW HRS. THEY SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ON WITH
THE VERY LATEST RUN. THIS ARM OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH THRU BUT SHOULD
WEAKEN DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 3-4 HRS. HOWEVER...STILL ON
TRACK TO SEE ANOTHER BATCH DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SOME SUN MAY
PEEK THRU BEFORE THEY ARRIVE/DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING.
PREV...
CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE
SRN TIER. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEM TO BE MUCH BETTER VIZ-
WISE...PROBABLY DUE TO SOME MIXING WITH A TINY BIT OF WIND. ALSO
THE CLOUDS ADVANCING IN WITH THE WAA WILL HELP TO INSULATE AND
PERHAPS MITIGATE THE LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. A LITTLE MORE WIND
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR STARTING AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL HELP TO MIX
THE FOG AWAY. A SINGLE THUNDERSTORM IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
TOWARD ELK COUNTY...SO DID KEEP A MENTION OF T IN THE FORECAST
ALONG WITH CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE VISBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE PRETTY SLOWLY OVER THE EAST...SO HAVE KEPT THE FOG
ADVY RUNNING THRU 10 AM.
A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ROLL IN FROM THE WEST ALONG A WARM FRONT ALOFT VERY
SHORTLY IN THE NW...AND INTO THE SW AROUND SUNRISE OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE EARLIER. HOWEVER...THE BEST FORCING WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE
LIKE THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DISTINCT
WIND SHIFT RIGHT ALONG THE OH/IN BORDER AT 08Z AND THIS FEATURE
WILL ARRIVE IN THE W LATE MORNING...AND CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THUS...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SWRN HALF OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE NERN HALF WILL HAVE THEM MORE SO IN THE VERY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
BEFORE 6 PM TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT.
HOWEVER...AS THE FIRST VOLLEY OF DRIER/COOLER AIR COMES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FLARE UP IN THE NW LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WILL NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH AS
LOSS OF HEAT WILL KILL THEM OFF.
THE POTENCY OF ANY STORMS TODAY IS IN QUESTION...AS THE STABILITY
IS IN QUESTION. PLENTY OF CIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA AS THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND SOME INCREASING LLVL MSTR COMBINE
TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO WARM THINGS UP. ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE
CLEAR SKY NOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM...BUT THE
SERLY INFLOW WILL NOT REALLY KICK IN UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. EVEN
THEN IT IS NOT VERY STRONG. AS STATED PRIOR...THE WINDS/HODOGRAPH
FOR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY ARE INTERESTING. THE 50KT
WINDS OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING ARE ONLY 7KFT UP - WELL IN THE
SWEET SPOT FOR ISOLATED SVR GUSTS IF WE CAN GET RID OF THE
CIN/CAP. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF STRONG GUSTS/SEVERE AT
THIS POINT...AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE MORNING LLVL MSTR BURNS AWAY
OR HANGS ON. CERTAINLY SOME ELEVATED THUNDER IS LIKELY BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE SCT AND WILL WORD THE THUNDER AS SUCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SKY COVER WILL VARY TONIGHT WITH SOME INITIAL CLEARING THEN A
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND PERHAPS A SHOWER LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE
WEST. BUT MORE THAN LIKELY IT SHOULD STAY DRY OVER THE AREA AND
THE WIND SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT A MINIMUM. EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. 8H TEMPS INCH DOWN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STILL SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS...EVEN
BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BEHIND IT WILL MOVE
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL POP UP -
ESP IN THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THAT FIRST FRONT WILL BE LYING IN WAIT
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OR ALONG THE MD BORDER. SOME HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE IN THE AFTN COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHRA THERE AS WELL.
NOT RULING OUT THUNDER/SMALL HAIL AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP AND CAPE DOES DEVELOP DESPITE THE
GENERALLY DRY AIR. WILL KEEP ON WITH HIGHS IN THE L50S NW AND L60S
SE. THESE NUMBERS ARE STILL WELL /10F/ ABOVE NORMALS. SPRING IS
SPRINGING BUT THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL TAKE US
BACK TO NORMALS OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS ON FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT POISED ON OUR NORTHERN BORDER TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BY EARLY FRIDAY. SHOWERY PRECIP
WILL BECOME FOCUSED INVOF OF THIS BOUNDARY AND MIX WITH...OR
CHANGE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
FOR SATURDAY...PROVIDING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WIND AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.
BIG QUESTION STILL LIES IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME AS THE
SFC/UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND ENERGY DIGS SE THROUGH THE BACK SIDE
OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
MODEL BLEND INDICATES A CLOSE CALL WITH A LIKELY WESTERN ATLANTIC
STORM. 00Z AND 06Z U.S./EC RUNS STRAYED WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST WITH
A SFC WAVE AS SIGNIFICANT JET ENERGY APPEARED BROADER/MORE DISPERSED
ALONG THE JET CORE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE FOCUSED THIS ENERGY
ONCE AGAIN IN A MORE DISCRETE CHUNK...BUT STILL A LITTLE TOO FAR
SOUTH AND EAST /WITH PHASING OF NRN STREAM ENERGY STILL LAGGING A
BIT/ TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON US HERE IN CENTRAL PENN AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. P-TYPE AT THIS POINT IS NOT IN QUESTION AS IT
WAS YESTERDAY...GIVER THE MORE EASTERN/COLDER STORM TRACK.
THE MOST OMINOUS MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE 06Z DGEX...WHICH SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/S EC AND GFS RUNS...BRINGS A POTENT SUB-990MB LOW RIGHT
ALONG THE VA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A HEAVY
LATE MARCH SNOWSTORM FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN. WE NEED TO
EMPHASIZE AT THIS POINT THAT THIS IS STILL AN OUTLIER...THOUGH THERE
ARE ALSO A HANDFUL OF GEFS MEMBERS THAT COINCIDE WITH THIS SAME
GENERAL SCENARIO.
MONDAY SHOULD BE COLD WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.
MOST SITES STILL HAVE FOG.
BEEN WATCHING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST.
JST REPORTED THUNDER EARLIER.
STORMS SW BUF STILL BUILDING UP...TOPS OVER 30K FEET NOW.
IN ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NW...AT BFD BETWEEN 14Z TO 19Z.
OUTLOOK...
THU...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE.
FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...POSS RAIN/SNOW COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-
025>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
621 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 AM UPDATE...
THUNDER CONTINUES INTO THE WRN MTNS...AND NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WRN PA AND ARE MOVING STEADILY INTO THE
CWA...CONTRARY TO THE HRRR AND RAP RUNS OF THE PAST FEW CYCLES.
UPPED POPS IN THE FIRST FEW HRS. THEY SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ON WITH
THE VERY LATEST RUN. THIS ARM OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH THRU BUT SHOULD
WEAKEN DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 3-4 HRS. HOWEVER...STILL ON
TRACK TO SEE ANOTHER BATCH DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SOME SUN MAY
PEEK THRU BEFORE THEY ARRIVE/DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING.
PREV...
CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE
SRN TIER. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEM TO BE MUCH BETTER VIZ-
WISE...PROBABLY DUE TO SOME MIXING WITH A TINY BIT OF WIND. ALSO
THE CLOUDS ADVANCING IN WITH THE WAA WILL HELP TO INSULATE AND
PERHAPS MITIGATE THE LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. A LITTLE MORE WIND
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR STARTING AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL HELP TO MIX
THE FOG AWAY. A SINGLE THUNDERSTORM IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
TOWARD ELK COUNTY...SO DID KEEP A MENTION OF T IN THE FORECAST
ALONG WITH CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE VISBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE PRETTY SLOWLY OVER THE EAST...SO HAVE KEPT THE FOG
ADVY RUNNING THRU 10 AM.
A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ROLL IN FROM THE WEST ALONG A WARM FRONT ALOFT VERY
SHORTLY IN THE NW...AND INTO THE SW AROUND SUNRISE OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE EARLIER. HOWEVER...THE BEST FORCING WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE
LIKE THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DISTINCT
WIND SHIFT RIGHT ALONG THE OH/IN BORDER AT 08Z AND THIS FEATURE
WILL ARRIVE IN THE W LATE MORNING...AND CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THUS...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SWRN HALF OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE NERN HALF WILL HAVE THEM MORE SO IN THE VERY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
BEFORE 6 PM TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT.
HOWEVER...AS THE FIRST VOLLEY OF DRIER/COOLER AIR COMES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FLARE UP IN THE NW LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WILL NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH AS
LOSS OF HEAT WILL KILL THEM OFF.
THE POTENCY OF ANY STORMS TODAY IS IN QUESTION...AS THE STABILITY
IS IN QUESTION. PLENTY OF CIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA AS THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND SOME INCREASING LLVL MSTR COMBINE
TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO WARM THINGS UP. ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE
CLEAR SKY NOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM...BUT THE
SERLY INFLOW WILL NOT REALLY KICK IN UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. EVEN
THEN IT IS NOT VERY STRONG. AS STATED PRIOR...THE WINDS/HODOGRAPH
FOR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY ARE INTERESTING. THE 50KT
WINDS OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING ARE ONLY 7KFT UP - WELL IN THE
SWEET SPOT FOR ISOLATED SVR GUSTS IF WE CAN GET RID OF THE
CIN/CAP. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF STRONG GUSTS/SEVERE AT
THIS POINT...AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE MORNING LLVL MSTR BURNS AWAY
OR HANGS ON. CERTAINLY SOME ELEVATED THUNDER IS LIKELY BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE SCT AND WILL WORD THE THUNDER AS SUCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SKY COVER WILL VARY TONIGHT WITH SOME INITIAL CLEARING THEN A
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND PERHAPS A SHOWER LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE
WEST. BUT MORE THAN LIKELY IT SHOULD STAY DRY OVER THE AREA AND
THE WIND SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT A MINIMUM. EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. 8H TEMPS INCH DOWN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STILL SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS...EVEN
BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BEHIND IT WILL MOVE
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL POP UP -
ESP IN THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THAT FIRST FRONT WILL BE LYING IN WAIT
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OR ALONG THE MD BORDER. SOME HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE IN THE AFTN COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHRA THERE AS WELL.
NOT RULING OUT THUNDER/SMALL HAIL AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP AND CAPE DOES DEVELOP DESPITE THE
GENERALLY DRY AIR. WILL KEEP ON WITH HIGHS IN THE L50S NW AND L60S
SE. THESE NUMBERS ARE STILL WELL /10F/ ABOVE NORMALS. SPRING IS
SPRINGING BUT THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL TAKE US
BACK TO NORMALS OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS ON FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT POISED ON OUR NORTHERN BORDER TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BY EARLY FRIDAY. SHOWERY PRECIP
WILL BECOME FOCUSED INVOF OF THIS BOUNDARY AND MIX WITH...OR
CHANGE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
FOR SATURDAY...PROVIDING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WIND AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.
BIG QUESTION STILL LIES IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME AS THE
SFC/UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND ENERGY DIGS SE THROUGH THE BACK SIDE
OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
MODEL BLEND INDICATES A CLOSE CALL WITH A LIKELY WESTERN ATLANTIC
STORM. 00Z AND 06Z U.S./EC RUNS STRAYED WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST WITH
A SFC WAVE AS SIGNIFICANT JET ENERGY APPEARED BROADER/MORE DISPERSED
ALONG THE JET CORE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE FOCUSED THIS ENERGY
ONCE AGAIN IN A MORE DISCRETE CHUNK...BUT STILL A LITTLE TOO FAR
SOUTH AND EAST /WITH PHASING OF NRN STREAM ENERGY STILL LAGGING A
BIT/ TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON US HERE IN CENTRAL PENN AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. P-TYPE AT THIS POINT IS NOT IN QUESTION AS IT
WAS YESTERDAY...GIVER THE MORE EASTERN/COLDER STORM TRACK.
THE MOST OMINOUS MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE 06Z DGEX...WHICH SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/S EC AND GFS RUNS...BRINGS A POTENT SUB-990MB LOW RIGHT
ALONG THE VA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A HEAVY
LATE MARCH SNOWSTORM FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN. WE NEED TO
EMPHASIZE AT THIS POINT THAT THIS IS STILL AN OUTLIER...THOUGH THERE
ARE ALSO A HANDFUL OF GEFS MEMBERS THAT COINCIDE WITH THIS SAME
GENERAL SCENARIO.
MONDAY SHOULD BE COLD WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.
MOST SITES STILL HAVE FOG.
BEEN WATCHING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
IN ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NW...AT BFD BETWEEN 14Z TO 19Z.
OUTLOOK...
THU...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE.
FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...POSS RAIN/SNOW COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-
025>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
553 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 AM UPDATE...
THUNDER CONTINUES INTO THE WRN MTNS...AND NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WRN PA AND ARE MOVING STEADILY INTO THE
CWA...CONTRARY TO THE HRRR AND RAP RUNS OF THE PAST FEW CYCLES.
UPPED POPS IN THE FIRST FEW HRS. THEY SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ON WITH
THE VERY LATEST RUN. THIS ARM OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH THRU BUT SHOULD
WEAKEN DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 3-4 HRS. HOWEVER...STILL ON
TRACK TO SEE ANOTHER BATCH DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SOME SUN MAY
PEEK THRU BEFORE THEY ARRIVE/DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING.
PREV...
CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE
SRN TIER. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEM TO BE MUCH BETTER VIZ-
WISE...PROBABLY DUE TO SOME MIXING WITH A TINY BIT OF WIND. ALSO
THE CLOUDS ADVANCING IN WITH THE WAA WILL HELP TO INSULATE AND
PERHAPS MITIGATE THE LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. A LITTLE MORE WIND
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR STARTING AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL HELP TO MIX
THE FOG AWAY. A SINGLE THUNDERSTORM IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
TOWARD ELK COUNTY...SO DID KEEP A MENTION OF T IN THE FORECAST
ALONG WITH CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE VISBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE PRETTY SLOWLY OVER THE EAST...SO HAVE KEPT THE FOG
ADVY RUNNING THRU 10 AM.
A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ROLL IN FROM THE WEST ALONG A WARM FRONT ALOFT VERY
SHORTLY IN THE NW...AND INTO THE SW AROUND SUNRISE OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE EARLIER. HOWEVER...THE BEST FORCING WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE
LIKE THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DISTINCT
WIND SHIFT RIGHT ALONG THE OH/IN BORDER AT 08Z AND THIS FEATURE
WILL ARRIVE IN THE W LATE MORNING...AND CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THUS...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SWRN HALF OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE NERN HALF WILL HAVE THEM MORE SO IN THE VERY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
BEFORE 6 PM TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT.
HOWEVER...AS THE FIRST VOLLEY OF DRIER/COOLER AIR COMES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FLARE UP IN THE NW LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WILL NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH AS
LOSS OF HEAT WILL KILL THEM OFF.
THE POTENCY OF ANY STORMS TODAY IS IN QUESTION...AS THE STABILITY
IS IN QUESTION. PLENTY OF CIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA AS THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND SOME INCREASING LLVL MSTR COMBINE
TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO WARM THINGS UP. ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE
CLEAR SKY NOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM...BUT THE
SERLY INFLOW WILL NOT REALLY KICK IN UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. EVEN
THEN IT IS NOT VERY STRONG. AS STATED PRIOR...THE WINDS/HODOGRAPH
FOR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY ARE INTERESTING. THE 50KT
WINDS OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING ARE ONLY 7KFT UP - WELL IN THE
SWEET SPOT FOR ISOLATED SVR GUSTS IF WE CAN GET RID OF THE
CIN/CAP. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF STRONG GUSTS/SEVERE AT
THIS POINT...AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE MORNING LLVL MSTR BURNS AWAY
OR HANGS ON. CERTAINLY SOME ELEVATED THUNDER IS LIKELY BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE SCT AND WILL WORD THE THUNDER AS SUCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SKY COVER WILL VARY TONIGHT WITH SOME INITIAL CLEARING THEN A
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND PERHAPS A SHOWER LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE
WEST. BUT MORE THAN LIKELY IT SHOULD STAY DRY OVER THE AREA AND
THE WIND SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT A MINIMUM. EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. 8H TEMPS INCH DOWN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STILL SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS...EVEN
BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BEHIND IT WILL MOVE
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL POP UP -
ESP IN THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THAT FIRST FRONT WILL BE LYING IN WAIT
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OR ALONG THE MD BORDER. SOME HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE IN THE AFTN COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHRA THERE AS WELL.
NOT RULING OUT THUNDER/SMALL HAIL AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP AND CAPE DOES DEVELOP DESPITE THE
GENERALLY DRY AIR. WILL KEEP ON WITH HIGHS IN THE L50S NW AND L60S
SE. THESE NUMBERS ARE STILL WELL /10F/ ABOVE NORMALS. SPRING IS
SPRINGING BUT THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL TAKE US
BACK TO NORMALS OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS ON FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT POISED ON OUR NORTHERN BORDER TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BY EARLY FRIDAY. SHOWERY PRECIP
WILL BECOME FOCUSED INVOF OF THIS BOUNDARY AND MIX WITH...OR
CHANGE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
FOR SATURDAY...PROVIDING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WIND AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.
BIG QUESTION STILL LIES IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME AS THE
SFC/UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND ENERGY DIGS SE THROUGH THE BACK SIDE
OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
MODEL BLEND INDICATES A CLOSE CALL WITH A LIKELY WESTERN ATLANTIC
STORM. 00Z AND 06Z U.S./EC RUNS STRAYED WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST WITH
A SFC WAVE AS SIGNIFICANT JET ENERGY APPEARED BROADER/MORE DISPERSED
ALONG THE JET CORE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE FOCUSED THIS ENERGY
ONCE AGAIN IN A MORE DISCRETE CHUNK...BUT STILL A LITTLE TOO FAR
SOUTH AND EAST /WITH PHASING OF NRN STREAM ENERGY STILL LAGGING A
BIT/ TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON US HERE IN CENTRAL PENN AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. P-TYPE AT THIS POINT IS NOT IN QUESTION AS IT
WAS YESTERDAY...GIVER THE MORE EASTERN/COLDER STORM TRACK.
THE MOST OMINOUS MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE 06Z DGEX...WHICH SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/S EC AND GFS RUNS...BRINGS A POTENT SUB-990MB LOW RIGHT
ALONG THE VA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A HEAVY
LATE MARCH SNOWSTORM FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN. WE NEED TO
EMPHASIZE AT THIS POINT THAT THIS IS STILL AN OUTLIER...THOUGH THERE
ARE ALSO A HANDFUL OF GEFS MEMBERS THAT COINCIDE WITH THIS SAME
GENERAL SCENARIO.
MONDAY SHOULD BE COLD WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS SO FAR. STILL SOME CLDS TO THE NE...BUT MOST
AREAS CLEAR...THUS CONCERN ABOUT FOG.
ALSO HAVE TO LOOK OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. BEST DYNAMICS LIFT NW OF OUR AREA...BUT THINK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE MODELS SHOW. IF DEWPOINTS GET UP AROUND
50 OR HIGHER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG STORMS. HUGE AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER LAKE MI AT THE CURRENT TIME. AGAIN...THINK THAT
THE SOUTHERN EDGE WILL BE LIMITED...GIVEN TRACK OF DYNAMICS...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
IN ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NW...AT BFD BETWEEN 14Z TO 19Z.
OUTLOOK...
THU...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE.
FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...POSS RAIN/SNOW COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-
025>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
201 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE 31...NEAR RABBIT
EARS PASS...AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEN QG LIFT
WILL BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT TO BRING MORE SNOW TO
THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE UPSTREAM
IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TODAY AND MAY LIMIT SOME SNOWFALL RATES COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND WHAT SNOW WILL FALL WILL LIKELY IMPACT
TRAVELERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS EXPIRE AS ONLY SPOTTY
LIGHT SNOW REMAINS AS THE TROUGH HAS PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE AREA.
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE AGAIN...AND HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUALLY SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE PRECIP/SNOW AMOUNTS THAN
FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOW AN AREA OF MODERATE MID LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH BANDED SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AS WELL. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH 9 AM MDT THIS
MORNING. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER ZONES 41..46
AND 47 UNTIL 9 AM AS WELL. GOOD SUBSIDENCE PROGGED LATER THIS
MORNING SO DECREASING SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE STILL SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
BUT NOT SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...THE
REST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRIER AND WINDY. NO FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED RH
VALUES THIS AFTN AND ALTHOUGH WINDY...NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS ANOTHER
JET MAX APPROACHES FM THE NORTHWEST. WILL KEEP SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE MAY INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TOWARDS 12Z. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WINDY EARLY BUT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 03Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST U.S. AND THE HIGH
OVER LOW TO THE WEST OF IT OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES. A
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES GETS SOMEWHAT
SHEARED APART AS IT MOVE NEARS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEND TO AGREE
WITH THE ECMWF AS IT DIGS THE TROUGH A LITTLE MORE SOUTH THAN THE
GFS.
NOW FOR THE DETAILS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 100 KNOT JET OVER THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THAT
WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
WEAK THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNLESS THE TROUGH DIGS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN IS FORECASTED BY THE MODELS. WITH THE JET AND UPSLOPE
FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT SNOW INTO FRIDAY. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING
WITH THIS PATTERN. MOST OF THEM HAVE THE BAND OF SNOW FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR FRIDAY...NOT MUCH AGREEMENT WHERE THE
SNOW WILL OCCUR. SNOWFALL TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PUSH THE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BE COOL YET WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY LOWER 70S FOR MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
COLORADO. A PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INLAND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS
DRY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH REMAINS TOO FAR WEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO GIVE WAY TO STRONGER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS...SHOULD BE ALL WNW BY 17Z. EXPECT SOME GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS
TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...RETURNING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z. WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE WNW AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z...BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS
THAN THE LAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ031.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
243 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLL0WED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH...AND USHER A RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND WILL START WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO 20
DEGREES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THICKENING
AND LOWERING. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF ONSET OF SHOWERS BASED ON
REGIONAL RADARS AND THE MESOSCALE HRRR MODEL WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
HANDLE ON CURRENT LOCATION OF THE ON-GOING CONVECTION. HAVE POPS
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND DECREASING LATE IN THE EVENING AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING CONTINUES TO OCCUR AS CONVECTION MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DUE TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO
THE FORECAST FOR AREAS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE NORMAL HIGHS ARE FOR MID MARCH WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. WILL BE WILL HAVE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY...RATHER STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS H500 TEMPS COOL TO -25 TO -30 C. THE
QUESTION IS...WILL THERE BE AN ATMOSPHERIC FORCING MECHANISM TO
TAP THIS INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO TAP THIS INSTABILITY. MID LEVELS WILL BE RATHER DRY...SO
EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...GIVEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 8
C/KM...AND AN INVERTED V APPEARANCE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANY SLIGHTLY TALLER CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. RATHER STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR IF ANY SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS FROM DEVELOPING COLD POOLS
DEVELOP...BUT AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...APPEARS LIKE A LOW
PROBABILITY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY...AND WITH DEEP
MIXING...HAVE SIDED ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH EVEN HIGHER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODEL SUITE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE 12UTC
NAM/GFS IN LINE WITH PVS RUNS AS WELL AS 00UTC GEM AND ECMWF.
WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH SUPER BLEND AS THIS PERIOD OFFERS FEW
TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI A STRONG 500 HPA TROF AND ITS SFC CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND WINTER LIKE CONDS. WHILE GENERALLY MOISTURE STARVED...SCT-BKN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. AT 500 HPA
BY LATE FRI A SMALL OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP FM THE UPPER GRT PLAINS TO
NEW ENG WITH FCST AREA AT BASE OF EASTERN TROF. WITH SFC LOW
DEEPENING IN GULF OF MAINE...AND 1030MB OR SO SFC HIGH OVER
ONTARIO...BRISK WINDS...CAA...N-NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN VRBL CLOUDS
AND BRISK CONDS INTO SAT AND ISOLD -SHSN OVER HIR TRRN.
SAT THE PATTERN AT 500HPA WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH FCA AREA COMING
UNDER THE RIDGE AT ITS CENTER...THE SFC LOW IN N ATLC
DEPARTING...WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES SAT NT. HWVR TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS AFT CFP FOR
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE OMEGA BLOCK IN
THE NE AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE THE WESTERN TROF OPENS AND A
SECOND AND STRONG SHORT WV DIVES INTO THE TROF AS IT DEEPENS IN
THE MIDWEST.
SUNDAY STARTS FAIR AND COLD...BUT THE 500 HPA TROF INTERACTING
WITH THE COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE TRIGGERS CYCLOGENISUS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...WHICH DEEPENS EXPLOSIVELY (BOMBS) FM SUN AFT TO
MON AFT. THIS BOMB SIGNAL HAS BEEN IN THE DATA FOR DAYS...BUT
LOCATION HAS VARIED FROM RUN TO RUN.
THE TREND FOR SVRL RUNS HAS BEEN TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM FURTHER
EAST...AND LARGELY OUT OF RANGE OF THE FCA EXCEPT FOR SOME FRINGE
IMPACTS IN SE AND LIGHT SNOW IN FAR SE.
TDYS GFS/ECMWF RUNS REVERSE THAT TREND WITH GFS BACKING IT
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...W/GFS PASSING IT 150 MILES SE OFF
ACK...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FAR SE...AND CLOUDS. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF SIG
SNOW AS FAR WEST AS HUD VLY. WPC STILL MAINTAINS THE FURTHER EAST
TRACK OF PRIOR RUNS...BUT THAT DATA DOESN`T REFLECT 12UTC RUNS.
THIS IS ONLY ONE RUN...THE BEST APPROACH IS TO USE TO BLENDED
GUID AND NUDGE IT WEST. HWVR IF THIS SIGNAL PERSISTS A FEW
RUNS...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN ORDER FOR WHAT IS BCMG
A LOW TO MID CONFIDENCE FCST.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE STORM PASSES ALONG THE COAST BY LATE
MONDAY IT WILL BE A 970 SOMETHING LOW OVER MARITIMES AS A 1030HPA
POLAR HIGH DROPS INTO THE GRT PLAINS...RESULTING A STRONG WIND
DRIVEN CAA INTO TUE. THE 500 HPA TROF ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT
SLOWLY AWAY TUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE...AND GENERALLY FAIR
CONDS.
HWVR TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMALS...AND IN LIGHT
OF RECENT MILD CONDS WILL FEEL COLDER TO MOST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT GIVE WAY TO
MVFR WITH SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MVFR/IFR
FLYING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL START VFR AS AN OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOWERING VFR CLOUDS BY 20-21Z...IN WHICH VCSH WAS ADDED AT THE TAF
SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TEMPO
GROUP WAS ADDED IN THE 20-23Z TIMEFRAME AT THE TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BETWEEN 22Z-06Z.
WHILE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TAFS...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH AND WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY IF THIS LIKELIHOOD BECOMES MORE APPARENT. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHERLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARDS THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE 04-06Z TIMEFRAME...WITH ANY LINGERING THUNDER ENDING BY
02Z. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOIST LOW-LEVELS...AND A SHARP
RADIATIONAL INVERSION...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES FROM 06Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE 12Z-15Z
TIMEFRAME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND
KPSF...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KALB
AND KPSF AS WELL. STRONG MIXING BY 15Z ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR
VCSH...INCLUDING A THREAT FOR THUNDER...WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE 6-12 KNOT RANGE THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RAINFALL AMTS OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS GENERALLY AVERAGED ONE TENTH
TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA.
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND A ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TENTH...TO
ONE HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS EXPECTED FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE BREEZY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20
MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER...WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THESE SYSTEMS LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY A HALF OF AN
INCH OR LESS. THIS RAIN SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR
WATERSHEDS.
IT TURNS COLDER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...KL/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL/SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLL0WED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH...AND USHER A RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND WILL START WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO 20
DEGREES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THICKENING
AND LOWERING. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF ONSET OF SHOWERS BASED ON
REGIONAL RADARS AND THE MESOSCALE HRRR MODEL WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
HANDLE ON CURRENT LOCATION OF THE ON-GOING CONVECTION. HAVE POPS
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND DECREASING LATE IN THE EVENING AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHTNING CONTINUES TO OCCUR AS CONVECTION MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DUE TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO
THE FORECAST FOR AREAS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE NORMAL HIGHS ARE FOR MID MARCH WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. WILL BE WILL HAVE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY...RATHER STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS H500 TEMPS COOL TO -25 TO -30 C. THE
QUESTION IS...WILL THERE BE AN ATMOSPHERIC FORCING MECHANISM TO
TAP THIS INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO TAP THIS INSTABILITY. MID LEVELS WILL BE RATHER DRY...SO
EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...GIVEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 8
C/KM...AND AN INVERTED V APPEARANCE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANY SLIGHTLY TALLER CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. RATHER STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR IF ANY SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS FROM DEVELOPING COLD POOLS
DEVELOP...BUT AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...APPEARS LIKE A LOW
PROBABILITY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY...AND WITH DEEP
MIXING...HAVE SIDED ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH EVEN HIGHER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODEL SUITE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE 12UTC
NAM/GFS IN LINE WITH PVS RUNS AS WELL AS 00UTC GEM AND ECMWF.
WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH SUPER BLEND AS THIS PERIOD OFFERS FEW
TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI A STRONG 500 HPA TROF AND ITS SFC CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND WINTER LIKE CONDS. WHILE GENERALLY MOISTURE STARVED...SCT-BKN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. AT 500 HPA
BY LATE FRI A SMALL OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP FM THE UPPER GRT PLAINS TO
NEW ENG WITH FCST AREA AT BASE OF EASTERN TROF. WITH SFC LOW
DEEPENING IN GULF OF MAINE...AND 1030MB OR SO SFC HIGH OVER
ONTARIO...BRISK WINDS...CAA...N-NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN VRBL CLOUDS
AND BRISK CONDS INTO SAT AND ISOLD -SHSN OVER HIR TRRN.
SAT THE PATTERN AT 500HPA WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH FCA AREA COMING
UNDER THE RIDGE AT ITS CENTER...THE SFC LOW IN N ATLC
DEPARTING...WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES SAT NT. HWVR TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS AFT CFP FOR
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY COLD AND DEPENDING ON THE
IMPACT FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EITHER
ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
ON SUNDAY EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE THE TREND DOWNWARD IN POPS AS THE MODELS ARE
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN IN THAT BOTH THE OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE STORM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FA TO JUST BRUSH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA WITH SOME
LIGHT PCPN. THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR KALB SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
DURING THE EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME WHEREAS GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
FOR ISLIP HAVE ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO ALMOST
HALF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS
SUCH THAT ALL THE PCPN THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
EXCEPT PERHAPS A MIX ACRS FAR SE ZONES. EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT GIVE WAY TO
MVFR WITH SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MVFR/IFR
FLYING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL START VFR AS AN OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOWERING VFR CLOUDS BY 20-21Z...IN WHICH VCSH WAS ADDED AT THE TAF
SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TEMPO
GROUP WAS ADDED IN THE 20-23Z TIMEFRAME AT THE TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BETWEEN 22Z-06Z.
WHILE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TAFS...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH AND WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY IF THIS LIKELIHOOD BECOMES MORE APPARENT. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHERLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARDS THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE 04-06Z TIMEFRAME...WITH ANY LINGERING THUNDER ENDING BY
02Z. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOIST LOW-LEVELS...AND A SHARP
RADIATIONAL INVERSION...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES FROM 06Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE 12Z-15Z
TIMEFRAME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND
KPSF...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KALB
AND KPSF AS WELL. STRONG MIXING BY 15Z ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR
VCSH...INCLUDING A THREAT FOR THUNDER...WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE 6-12 KNOT RANGE THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RAINFALL AMTS OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS GENERALLY AVERAGED ONE TENTH
TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA.
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND A ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TENTH...TO
ONE HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS EXPECTED FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE BREEZY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20
MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER...WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE SYSTEMS LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY
A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS RAIN SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WATERSHEDS.
IT TURNS COLDER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
300 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS NW FLOW EXTENDING FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK
NORTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE CU AND
A FEW SPRINKLES NEAR OUR CWA. DUE TO A SUB CLOUD LAYER OF TD
DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 20-30F THROUGH 10 KFT AGL THIS HAS MAINLY
BEEN VIRGA. IF WE WERE TO SEE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPDRAFT FORM WE
COULD SEE EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES AID PRECIP REACHING
GROUND...POSSIBLY AS A FEW SNOW FLAKES. I KEPT SPRINKLE MENTION
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HELP STABILIZE
CONDITIONS AND PUT AN END TO ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY MEASURABLE IS LOW DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY LAYER.
TONIGHT...LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT COULD INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS COLD ENOUGH
THAT WITH LIGHT WINDS LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS OUR CWA.
IF WE WEE MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
TEENS.
THURSDAY...MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER BELOW
700MB/10KFT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL. STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT WE SHOULD HAVE
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LIMITING
VERTICAL UPDRAFTS. I LEFT SPRINKLE MENTION OUT AND KEPT POPS SILENT.
DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORTS GOOD MIXING
TOMORROW...HOWEVER AS LEE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THE AIR MASS MAY
NOT SEE AS MUCH OF A RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE WILL PROBABLY
SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S (SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY). WINDS ALOFT AREA ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN...SO DESPITE GOOD MIXING WE LIKELY WONT SEE RFW CONDITIONS
DESPITE RH VALUES DROPPING TO 15 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
UPPER SYSTEM THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THEN TRACK EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND.
A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA THU-FRI AS THE UPPER LOW GETS MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE N
PLAINS. A 95 KT JET STREAK WILL BE ORIENTED FROM WESTERN MT TO
NORTHERN CO INTO NORTHERN KANSAS WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE A 12-18
HOUR PERIOD OF UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS AN INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY EVENING...GRADUALLY
MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW AS IT OVERSPREADS NORTHERN KANSAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW. AT THIS TIME THE THINKING IS
INITIAL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
ACCUMULATING GIVEN AVERAGE SOIL TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 40S AND
LIGHTER SNOW RATES...BUT AS HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES OCCUR
FRIDAY MORNING THE FORECAST REFLECTS ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S IN
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK TO MOVE OUT WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY RECOVERING TO THE MIDDLE 40S AND UP TO
AROUND 60 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW 12KT AND
SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE REBUILDS IN EASTERN
COLORADO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS NW FLOW EXTENDING FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK
NORTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE CU AND
A FEW SPRINKLES NEAR OUR CWA. DUE TO A SUB CLOUD LAYER OF TD
DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 20-30F THROUGH 10 KFT AGL THIS HAS MAINLY
BEEN VIRGA. IF WE WERE TO SEE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPDRAFT FORM WE
COULD SEE EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES AID PRECIP REACHING
GROUND...POSSIBLY AS A FEW SNOW FLAKES. I KEPT SPRINKLE MENTION
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HELP STABILIZE
CONDITIONS AND PUT AN END TO ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY MEASURABLE IS LOW DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY LAYER.
TONIGHT...LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT COULD INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS COLD ENOUGH
THAT WITH LIGHT WINDS LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS OUR CWA.
IF WE WEE MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
TEENS.
THURSDAY...MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER BELOW
700MB/10KFT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL. STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT WE SHOULD HAVE
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LIMITING
VERTICAL UPDRAFTS. I LEFT SPRINKLE MENTION OUT AND KEPT POPS SILENT.
DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORTS GOOD MIXING
TOMORROW...HOWEVER AS LEE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THE AIR MASS MAY
NOT SEE AS MUCH OF A RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE WILL PROBABLY
SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S (SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY). WINDS ALOFT AREA ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN...SO DESPITE GOOD MIXING WE LIKELY WONT SEE RFW CONDITIONS
DESPITE RH VALUES DROPPING TO 15 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO
THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL
FOR ALL PERIODS.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 50 SATURDAY WARMING TO THE
LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND LOWER 70S MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY RANGING FROM 65 TO 70. MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 20S. MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD MODERATE TO THE LOWER 30S AND THE UPPER 30S MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW 12KT AND
SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE REBUILDS IN EASTERN
COLORADO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1220 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Low pressure system that impacted the area yesterday continues to
deepen eastward this morning towards the Great Lakes region. Strong
winds coming in the backside of the system have translated to the
sfc with westerly winds at around 10 mph at the current hour.
Meanwhile an area of sfc high pressure over western Kansas has
gradually spread toward the CWA overnight, dropping dewpoints over
central KS into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
For today, main concern will be the critical fire weather over most
of the CWA. Additional details are listed in the Fire Weather
Section below. Westerly winds are expected to increase by mid
afternoon as diurnal heating and drier air within the boundary layer
push 30 kt winds towards the sfc. Latest runs of the GFS and NAM are
not as strong with the unidirectional westerly winds compared to the
latest runs of the HRRR and RUC. Dependent on how deep the boundary
layer is able to mix out will determine how strong winds become. I
went with a blend of the mean values using a slight preference for
the RUC and HRRR resulting in sustained sfc speeds at 15 to 25 mph.
Cloud cover will also be a determining factor as a mid level impulse
tracks through southeast KS by the afternoon. The associated jet
streak with this wave may help sustain the stronger winds despite
the increasing cloud cover. Highs today are overall cooler behind
the cold front with readings in the lower 60s. Skies clear tonight
with winds becoming light. Lows near freezing are anticipated,
ranging from the lower to middle 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
West to northwest flow aloft will continue Thursday through Monday.
Temperatures will be mild on Thursday with a continued very dry
airmass, ample sunshine, and very deep mixing of the boundary layer.
This will result in another day of very dry surface RH although
winds should be lighter than on Wednesday. Details regarding this
and other fire weather can be found below in the fire weather
section. Temperatures are likely to range from the upper 50s north
to the mid 60s in east central KS.
Changes are expected Thursday night into Friday as an upper low
builds over the northern Plains and moderate cold advection builds
into Kansas. The airmass on Thursday night will start out very dry,
but all model guidance is suggesting a zone of strong frontogenesis
associated with this cold advection over parts of the forecast area.
The temperature profile associated with the frontogenesis region
will also lend itself to supporting slantwise and vertical
instability. So, while there will be a lot of dry air to overcome,
it seems likely that given the magnitude of vertical motion a band
of light to moderate precipitation will develop from northwest into
central and southeast Kansas through the night and into Friday
morning. The north edge of this precipitation band is likely to have
a very sharp cutoff from no precipitation to moderate precipitation
and there is some uncertainty regarding where that cutoff will be.
Temperature profiles will initially be quite warm, but assuming the
wet-bulb effect do see potential for a change over to at least a
period of snow. The best chance for this to occur will be in areas
where the precipitation is longest-lived to have the best chance to
wet-bulb as cool as possible. Given moderate rates, there is some
potential for minor accumulation in a band across the area, with the
best chance probably south of a Minneapolis to Abilene to Garnett
line.
The main upper low will move just northeast of the area late
Saturday and see some small potential sprinkles mainly in eastern
Kansas but have kept the forecast dry at this time. Temperatures
will be cooler but only slightly below normal through the weekend
before another big warm-up is expected going into next week. There
is a very strong signal for the upper flow pattern to build a ridge
into the plains on Monday and then turn to southwesterly flow by
Tuesday and Wednesday. This would likely bring temperatures back
into the 70s while opening the Gulf to northward moisture
transport.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
For the 18z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Westerly winds should become gusty at 18-25kts this afternoon
before quickly diminishing by early this evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Per the discussion above, winds are the main uncertainty for today
while the RH values very likely to fall into the 15 to 25 percent
range. Areas over north central KS may even reach the lower teens
percent-wise if deeper mixing is realized. Elsewhere, areas along
the I-70 corridor and points southward are likely to reach the 15
to 20 percent range for RH. Westerly winds are expected to
gradually increase between 15 and 20 mph by mid afternoon. Gusts
between 25 and 30 are most likely to occur in the 1 PM to 4 PM
time frame before quickly dropping off thereafter. Locations to
see these conditions are generally south of Interstate 70 with
some uncertainty towards the northern portions of Republic,
Pottawatomie, Jackson, and Jefferson counties where the winds may
be not as gusty despite the low RH values. Overall, the short term
guidance favors a more deeply mixed boundary layer with the
stronger winds, so have coordinated with surrounding offices to
issue a Red Flag Warning in effect this afternoon through 7 PM.
RH on Thursday is expected to be very dry once again, likely in the
13 to 23 percent range with the highest values in far northeast
Kansas. The difference on Thursday is the expectation for lighter
winds. The pressure gradient is likely to weaken significantly by
Thursday with sustained winds in the 5 to 15 mph range through the
day. The wild card is the potential for gusts in the very-well-
mixed low levels. Peak mixing heights are likely to be in the
7000-10000 foot range with stronger winds (greater than 30 kts)
present above 8000 feet. This presents a small chance for brief
but stronger gusts to mix down to the surface. With that in mind,
the potential is not high enough to be too concerned with right
now and will most likely see 5-15 mph winds with occasional
sporadic gusts to around 20 mph.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Hennecke
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen/Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
205 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
DRY/BREEZY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE
OF THIS MORNING/S FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEADING TO BORDERLINE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION INTO THE
BIG SANDY REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING EAST THROUGH KY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF
3 AM IT REACHED FROM NEAR BOWLING GREEN TO JUST WEST OF
LOUISVILLE. ISOLATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING NEAR
THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN ABOUT 5 AM AND 8 AM. BEHIND IT...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MIXING.
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PROPELLED THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED. BOTH
MODELS START THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
PLUNGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FLOW
CHANGES A BIT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT THE MODELS
HAVE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WESTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A VIGOROUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES SO...THE MODELS HAVE THIS
SMALLER SCALE SYSTEM PHASING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH. THESE TWO SYSTEMS...ONCE
THEY COMBINE...ARE FORECAST TO TAP INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
MOISTURE BEFORE THE PHASED LOW MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
BEING THE NEW WORK WEEK. BEFORE THIS PHASING HAPPENS...WE CAN
EXPECT THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TO TAP JUST ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY OVER THE WEEKEND...AS MUCH COOLER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO
AN END SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE SMALL SCALE WAVE MERGES WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MENTIONED BEFORE.
THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION...SO WE WILL LIKELY BE SEEING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...OR PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES...FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS TO START OFF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING US A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. IN
FACT...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WE MAY SEE HIGHS IN CLIMBING TO AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY. EACH
NIGHT DURING THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WITH MIN VALUES IN THE 30S EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL
NIGHTS. SOME OUR DEEPER AND NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS MAY EVEN FALL
TO AROUND 32 THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE COLD AS WELL...AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR
AREA...ALLOWING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO SPILL INTO THE REGION.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM COULD MORE PRECIPITATION TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...BUT THERE IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT TO PUT MUCH STOCK
IN WHAT THE WEATHER MAY OR MAY NOT BE DOING NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY/GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHES KSME/KLOZ
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK WILL
SKIRT ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A
SUBTLE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
FIRE WX WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS
POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR A RFW...BUT
IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
JUST SHY OF CRITICAL VALUES...WITH THE BLUEGRASS REGION BEING
CLOSEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY DROP BELOW THE 25 PERCENT
THRESHOLD...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GUSEMAN
FIRE WEATHER...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1207 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Above average confidence in the long term due to mostly quiet
weather and relatively good model agreement.
Through the short term period the region remains in either zonal or
broad cyclonic flow aloft with the Gulf of Mexico cut off for most
of the period so moisture will be limited.
A few high clouds are expected to stream across the area today,
otherwise high pressure should provide another pleasant day for the
lower Ohio valley.
The passage of a weak H5 ripple of energy this afternoon and evening
should do nothing more than bring a layer of mid clouds across the
area. The HRRR implies some weak radar returns across the middle of
our CWA (W-E) in that time frame, but with clouds bases so high, any
precipitation should evaporate before reaching the ground. Besides,
with the exception of the SREF, all deterministic model runs keep it
dry so will go dry for now.
High pressure is expected to keep the region dry and cooler through
Friday morning. Precipitation chances make their way back into the
forecast Friday afternoon with the approach of a decent H5 short
wave and slightly higher deep layer moisture. Precipitation chances
increase slightly Friday night with the passage of said short wave.
Above normal temperatures during the first half of the short term
period are expected to cool to near normal in the second half of the
period.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
Medium range models indicate that mid/upper level energy pinched off
from an elongated low previously over the Great Lakes will begin to
dig into the central CONUS by the beginning of the extended forecast
period. A decent surface pressure gradient across the PAH forecast
area between high pressure in the central Plains and a low off the
FL coast will keep a flow of dry cool air in the low levels. Thus,
it will be somewhat difficult to get much in the way of measurable
rain from the system as it passes right over our region early
Sunday. We will go with a slight chance of measurable rainfall with
this event.
After Sunday, northern stream mid/upper level shortwave energy is
progged to dominate much of the eastern CONUS and sweep away the
aforementioned system to the east. Dry weather should prevail across
the PAH forecast area through at least Tuesday as the mid/upper flow
transitions to more of a ridging pattern. Tuesday (Day 7) should be
breezy as another surface pressure gradient sets up between an
approaching low pressure/frontal system to the west and high
pressure along the Atlantic seaboard. Dry low level return flow will
result in a warming trend from 30s/50s to 40s/60s by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
The TAFs are VFR, as mid and high clouds stream across the region
in fast nearly zonal flow aloft. West to southwest winds will
prevail through the period, as well. Gusts 20-25kts will be
possible both this afternoon and late Thursday morning at KEVV and
KOWB. There should be enough wind through the night to prevent fog
formation.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
219 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY
WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 5OS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD EKN AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ADDTIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE PIEDMONT. THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR NORTH OF
I-64 OF THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH WILL BE BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE/LIFT TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...WILL TWEAK POPS UPWARD
SLIGHTLY TO SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-64...BUT MAINTAIN
SCHC POPS SOUTH. THE 15Z HRRR SUGGESTS THAT STORMS THAT DO OCCUR
COULD BECOME A STRONG...BUT THIS WOULD BE RATHER CONDITIONAL ON IF
THE STORMS ACTUALLY OCCUR. DUE TO THE INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDING...ANY STORM WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/PRECIP LOADING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK RDG OF HI PRES WAS ALNG THE CST EARLY
THIS MORNG...PROVIDING A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY ACRS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THERE WERE ALSO AREAS OF FOG. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING
THRU ERN IN...AND CNTRL KY AND TN. THAT FRONT WILL SWING ACRS THE
REGION THEN OFF THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. SW WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN DWPTS/LO LVL
MOISTURE OVR THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE BEST LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL STAY N OF THE AREA. BUT...THE SHRT TERM MODELS DO
INDICATE A WEAK SECONDARY LO ALONG THE FRONT IN CNTRL/SE VA LATE
THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
PLUS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...BEFORE
THE WESTERLY PBL FLO CUTS OFF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
REGARDLESS... TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LWR TO MID 80S ACRS MOST
OF VA/NC COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S OVR THE LWR MD
AND VA ERN SHR. SPC HAS PUT SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC COUNTIES IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS TODAY...WITH THE MAIN THREATS ISLTD
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BIG CHANGE TNGT THRU FRI WILL BE THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW
LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. VERY
IMPRESSIVE MIXING NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH FVX MIXING TO
800MB UNDER THE STRONG UPPER JET. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT RH
VALUES DROPPING TO 20-25 PCT THU AFTN AND 25-30 PCT ON FRI. ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING BACKDOOR FRONT FRI AFTN
SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SO
WILL KEEP A DRY FCST THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S ON THU...AND RANGING THRU THE 60S ON FRI. LOWS IN THE MID 40S
TO LWR 50S TNGT...AND RANGING THRU THE 40S THU NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF
BEING IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING SFC FEATURES YET
STILL DIVERGING SUN INTO MON. THERE IS ALSO A TREND TWD
BETTER ALIGNMENT OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES HOWEVER LARGER
DISCREPANCIES STILL PLAGUE THE FAR EXTENDED PERIODS FOR
SUN INTO MON AS WELL. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND KEEPING A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST IN PLACE WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT WHEN A DECENT CHANCE AT SEEING
PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. CAPPED POPS WITHIN
HIGH CHANCE WORDING. HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS IN THE 40S
FRI/SAT NIGHTS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUN/MON NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W
TDA...CROSSING THE REGION TNGT. EXPECT DRY WX FOR MOST AREAS WITH
SOME SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. BEST CHC FOR SHRAS/TSTMS WILL BE AT
KSBY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRNT AFTER MIDNITE. VFR CONDS CONTINUE
THU WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN. ANOTHER COLD
FRNT CROSSES THE AREA FRI...WITH ITS MAIN IMPACT BEING JUST A WIND
SHIFT. HI PRES RETURNS FRI NGT/SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM
WHICH AFFECTS THE MID ATLC ERLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WK SFC HI PRES NR THE CST ATTM...DISSIPATES THROUGH THIS MRNG.
CDFNT FM THE W APPROACHES THIS MRNG...CROSSES THE WTRS LT TDA.
SSE WNDS BLO 10 KT TO START TDA...WILL CONT THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTN. WNDS SWING TO THE WSW LT THIS AFTN/EVE. NW WNDS XPCD
TNGT...THAT BECOME WSW RMNG AOB 15 KT ON THU. UPR TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED STRONGER CDFNT CROSSES THE WTRS FRI...RESULTING IN
INCRSD SPEEDS ON LO LVL CAA/DP LYRD MIXING. XPCG A PD OF SCAS FRI
INTO FRI NGT. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT PSBL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASINGLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
WEEK...MAXIMIZED ON FRIDAY WHEN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COORDINATION WITH
THE STATE FORESTRY OFFICIALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WARM CONDITIONS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 18-30
PERCENT WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE CHES BAY ON THURSDAY. WSW SURFACE
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON.
FRIDAY: COOLER BUT STILL MILD...AND CONTINUED DRY...WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A REINFORCING AND DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGER WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. MIN RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-30% WEST OF THE CHES BAY...AND 25-35% ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST (INCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE).
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY (MARCH 16)
RIC...85/1945
ORF...84/1945
ECG...87/1945
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1225 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY
WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 5OS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD EKN AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ADDTIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE PIEDMONT. THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR NORTH OF
I-64 OF THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH WILL BE BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE/LIFT TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...WILL TWEAK POPS UPWARD
SLIGHTLY TO SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-64...BUT MAINTAIN
SCHC POPS SOUTH. THE 15Z HRRR SUGGESTS THAT STORMS THAT DO OCCUR
COULD BECOME A STRONG...BUT THIS WOULD BE RATHER CONDITIONAL ON IF
THE STORMS ACTUALLY OCCUR. DUE TO THE INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDING...ANY STORM WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/PRECIP LOADING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK RDG OF HI PRES WAS ALNG THE CST EARLY
THIS MORNG...PROVIDING A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY ACRS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THERE WERE ALSO AREAS OF FOG. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING
THRU ERN IN...AND CNTRL KY AND TN. THAT FRONT WILL SWING ACRS THE
REGION THEN OFF THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. SW WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN DWPTS/LO LVL
MOISTURE OVR THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE BEST LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL STAY N OF THE AREA. BUT...THE SHRT TERM MODELS DO
INDICATE A WEAK SECONDARY LO ALONG THE FRONT IN CNTRL/SE VA LATE
THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
PLUS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...BEFORE
THE WESTERLY PBL FLO CUTS OFF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
REGARDLESS... TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LWR TO MID 80S ACRS MOST
OF VA/NC COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S OVR THE LWR MD
AND VA ERN SHR. SPC HAS PUT SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC COUNTIES IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS TODAY...WITH THE MAIN THREATS ISLTD
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BIG CHANGE TNGT THRU FRI WILL BE THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW
LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. VERY
IMPRESSIVE MIXING NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH FVX MIXING TO
800MB UNDER THE STRONG UPPER JET. CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT RH
VALUES DROPPING TO 20-25 PCT THU AFTN AND 25-30 PCT ON FRI. ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING BACKDOOR FRONT FRI AFTN
SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SO
WILL KEEP A DRY FCST THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S ON THU...AND RANGING THRU THE 60S ON FRI. LOWS IN THE MID 40S
TO LWR 50S TNGT...AND RANGING THRU THE 40S THU NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF
BEING IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING SFC FEATURES YET
STILL DIVERGING SUN INTO MON. THERE IS ALSO A TREND TWD
BETTER ALIGNMENT OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES HOWEVER LARGER
DISCREPANCIES STILL PLAGUE THE FAR EXTENDED PERIODS FOR
SUN INTO MON AS WELL. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND KEEPING A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST IN PLACE WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT WHEN A DECENT CHANCE AT SEEING
PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. CAPPED POPS WITHIN
HIGH CHANCE WORDING. HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS IN THE 40S
FRI/SAT NIGHTS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUN/MON NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WK SFC HI PRES NR THE CST BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THIS MRNG. CDFNT FM
THE W APPROACHES THIS MRNG...THEN CROSSES THE RGN THIS AFTN. SFC
HI PRES RETURNS TNGT THROUGH THU. A SECONDARY CDFNT CROSSES THE
RGN LT THU AND A FINAL ONE CROSSES ON FRI.
LGT/VRB WNDS...MNLY SKC AND DEWPTS HOLDING NR TEMPS (IN THE U40S-
L50S) CONT TO RESULT IN PATCHY (LGT) FG UNTIL ABT 13Z/16. AT MOST
VSBYS BRIEFLY DROP TO 1-4SM (DUE TO FG). OTRW...SSE WNDS AND VFR
CONDS (ANY BKN CIGS ABV 3 KFT) XPCD TDA. ISOLD SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE W/ FNTL PASSAGE. WNDS BECOME WSW BY LT TDA.
GUSTY WSW WNDS TO 20-25 KT XPCD THU AFTN...THEN NW WNDS GUSTY TO
25-30 KT XCPD FRI. MNLY VFR CONDS CONT THU-FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
WK SFC HI PRES NR THE CST ATTM...DISSIPATES THROUGH THIS MRNG.
CDFNT FM THE W APPROACHES THIS MRNG...CROSSES THE WTRS LT TDA.
SSE WNDS BLO 10 KT TO START TDA...WILL CONT THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTN. WNDS SWING TO THE WSW LT THIS AFTN/EVE. NW WNDS XPCD
TNGT...THAT BECOME WSW RMNG AOB 15 KT ON THU. UPR TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED STRONGER CDFNT CROSSES THE WTRS FRI...RESULTING IN
INCRSD SPEEDS ON LO LVL CAA/DP LYRD MIXING. XPCG A PD OF SCAS FRI
INTO FRI NGT. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT PSBL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASINGLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
WEEK...MAXIMIZED ON FRIDAY WHEN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COORDINATION WITH
THE STATE FORESTRY OFFICIALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WARM CONDITIONS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 18-30
PERCENT WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE CHES BAY ON THURSDAY. WSW SURFACE
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON.
FRIDAY: COOLER BUT STILL MILD...AND CONTINUED DRY...WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A REINFORCING AND DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGER WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. MIN RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-30% WEST OF THE CHES BAY...AND 25-35% ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST (INCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE).
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY (MARCH 16)
RIC...85/1945
ORF...84/1945
ECG...87/1945
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...MRD/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY HOWEVER THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW STALLS... AND A FEW
SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY AND COOL WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
STILL NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT TO ONGOING WIND HEADLINES. SOME GUSTS
NEAR 50 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL WHERE CLEARING
HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLEARING HAS ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN SRN LWR MI
AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 50KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM BEFORE THE MIXING HEIGHTS CRASH.
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR THE
FILLING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER SOME
LIGHT/ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN LWR MI DUE TO
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/COLD ADVECTION AND VORTICTY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE RAIN GIVEN WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WITH SFC FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX OR SNOW... BUT AGAIN ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY... COLD READINGS OF 20-25 ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF
THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCALES UP NORTH LIKE LEOTA COULD EVEN DIP TO
10 TO 15.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
COOLER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO OOZE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. H8 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SLIGHTLY
COLDER...SO I FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND LOWERED MAX AND MIN TEMPS
OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL ONLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S EACH DAY...AND UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S FOR LOW
TEMPS. WE WILL STAY CHILLY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS BY THEN SHOULD GIVE A NICE BOOST IN TEMPS.
AS FOR PCPN...WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MODELS
SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE/UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH. OTHERWISE IT
APPEARS RATHER QUIET UNTIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THEN UPPER
TROUGHING TAKES PLACE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THIS WILL
CAUSE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT
SHOULD TAKE SHAPE OVER THE LOWER LAKES...AND THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING US SNOW INITIALLY ON
TUESDAY...BUT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION SURGE IS INDICATED. SO THE
SNOW SHOULD SWITCH TO RAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IT
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
HOW THIS DEVELOPS. IF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STAYS FARTHER SOUTH WE
MAY SEE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND. THE WSW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE
SIGNIFICANT TURBULENCE BELOW 2K FT FOR TAKEOFFS AND LANDINGS. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE AT 15-20 KNOTS AFTER 22Z...BUT THE
GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH. THIS SHOULD CARRY THROUGH UNTIL THU
MORNING WHEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z THU.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE REGION. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE I-96 TAF SITES UNTIL
01Z...THEN WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
GUST OF 35-40 KTS ARE OCCASIONALLY BEING REPORTED AT SOME OF THE
MARINE SITES SO WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING THIS EVENING. GALES
SHOULD END OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW A STRIPE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOCALLY
AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES THAT RUN FROM ALONG THE MUSKEGON-OCEANA
COUNTY LINE...EASTWARD TO JUST ABOUT THE SAGINAW BAY AREA. OUTSIDE
THIS LINE AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED EXPECTATIONS. MORNING
OBSERVATIONS VIA COCORAHS AND VARIOUS OTHER SITES SHOW SLIGHTLY
OVER HALF AN INCH IN THIS SAME TERRITORY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT
GIVEN THE SCENARIO AND NUMBER OF SMALL HAIL REPORTS THESE HIGHER
AMOUNTS MAY BE CONTAMINATED TO SOME DEGREE.
RIVER LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH AND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN RISES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS INCLUDES PERIODS OF LIGHTER AMOUNTS
THAT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MINOR FLOODING BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ056>059-
064>067-071>074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
355 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG LATE- SEASON COLD
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO
MANY AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE ARE
ORIENTED WITHIN A REGION OF 250-500 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE PER
SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE TRIPLE
POINT BEING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. RADAR ELEVATION
SLICES SHOW THAT 40-50 DBZ CORE IS EXTENDING ABOVE THE 0C LEVEL SO
SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES
MOVING OVER AND EAST OF ROCHESTER. SEVERAL REPORTS OF THIS HAVE
RECENTLY COME INTO THE OFFICE.
FOLLOWING RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES.
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS EXPECT MOST OF
THE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND OF LAKE SHADOWS NORTHEAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MID 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE
FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE
SHADOWS SHOULD KEEP THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING BUFFALO MAINLY
DRY...AND ALSO NEAR WATERTOWN AS WELL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS MIXING OCCURS
AND FUNNELING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-40
KNOT RANGE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NEW YORK TO THE FINGER LAKES. 12Z BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE
THAT MEAN MOMENTUM TRANSPORT GUSTS WILL RUN IN THE LOWER 40KT RANGE
SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ACROSS MAINE
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DROP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
INITIALLY THERE WILL JUST BE PATCHY RAIN SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM
CONVECTION AND MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A STEADIER
LINE OF SHOWERS WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. TEMPERATURE WILL DROP AS THIS OCCURS...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO ABOUT -15C FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS IS COLD ENOUGH TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...WITH THE NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW CAUSING SOME
UPSLOPING. IN ADDITION...THE BACK OF A TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE AND LIFT.
THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF UPSLOPE REGION SUCH AS THE TUG HILL AND HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. IN THESE LOCATIONS A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE
EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER LAKES AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AIRMASS BECOMES VERY DRY.
EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
COASTLINE. THIS STORM WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MAY AID IN
PULLING ENOUGH MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A SNOW
SHOWER ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MAY BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION MONDAY...A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE LAKES...WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SQUEEZE ACROSS THE REGION...THIS FEATURE
BETWEEN A BROAD ATLANTIC STORM SYSTEM...AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN EARLY SNOW SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE DRY TUESDAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WARM
FRONT IS LIKELY TO LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...COUPLED WITH WARMER AIR FLOODING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY COULD VERY WELL REACH INTO THE
50S...TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA IN KROC/KART
TAFS TO COVER FOR THIS. SOME SMALL HAIL HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED
WITHIN THE STRONGER STORM CORES AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. THE WESTERN
TAFS ARE NOW CLEAR OF THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TSTMS WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST.
TONIGHT EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT ALONG
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE
FOR KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW.
THURSDAY THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR TODAYS STORMS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES. THIS WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS GUSTY
WINDS WHICH WILL LIKELY REACH OVER 40KTS DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEVERAL SHORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT WINDS
AND WAVES OUTSIDE OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.
ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS OVER LAKE ERIE UNDER
A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL BUILD WAVES ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER.
A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LIKELY BRINGING SCA
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ002-003-
010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ020-040-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
241 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG LATE- SEASON COLD
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO
MANY AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE ARE
ORIENTED WITHIN A REGION OF 250-500 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE PER
SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE TRIPLE
POINT BEING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. RADAR ELEVATION
SLICES SHOW THAT 40-50 DBZ CORE IS EXTENDING ABOVE THE 0C LEVEL SO
SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES
MOVING OVER AND EAST OF ROCHESTER. SEVERAL REPORTS OF THIS HAVE
RECENTLY COME INTO THE OFFICE.
FOLLOWING RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES.
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS EXPECT MOST OF
THE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND OF LAKE SHADOWS NORTHEAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MID 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE
FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE
SHADOWS SHOULD KEEP THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING BUFFALO MAINLY
DRY...AND ALSO NEAR WATERTOWN AS WELL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS MIXING OCCURS
AND FUNNELING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-40
KNOT RANGE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NEW YORK TO THE FINGER LAKES. 12Z BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE
THAT MEAN MOMENTUM TRANSPORT GUSTS WILL RUN IN THE LOWER 40KT RANGE
SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
MAINE...WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY SHARPENING AND DIGGING
SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIP COVERAGE PEAKING
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS DPVA AHEAD OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL COOL THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO QUICKLY
CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
THAN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON FRIDAY.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT THE AIRMASS GROWS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
LAKE RESPONSE ON FRIDAY AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO
AROUND 7K FEET. THIS WILL SUPPORT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EXPECT A COATING TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION WITH
AN ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE DRAMATICALLY
COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH MID 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WILL END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AIRMASS BECOMES VERY DRY.
EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE RETURN OF
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING A CONSTANT FEED OF FRESH CANADIAN AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE TO GO ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS NOW IN KEEPING A COASTAL LOW MUCH
TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INSTEAD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
SOME LOCAL MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA IN KROC/KART
TAFS TO COVER FOR THIS. SOME SMALL HAIL HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED
WITHIN THE STRONGER STORM CORES AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. THE WESTERN
TAFS ARE NOW CLEAR OF THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TSTMS WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST.
TONIGHT EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT ALONG
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE
FOR KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW.
THURSDAY THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR TODAYS STORMS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES. THIS WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS GUSTY
WINDS WHICH WILL LIKELY REACH OVER 40KTS DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEVERAL SHORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT WINDS
AND WAVES OUTSIDE OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.
ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS OVER LAKE ERIE UNDER
A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL BUILD WAVES ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER.
A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LIKELY BRINGING SCA
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ002-003-
010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ020-040-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
231 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG LATE- SEASON COLD
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO
MANY AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE ARE
ORIENTED WITHIN A REGION OF 2000-3000 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE PER
SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE TRIPLE
POINT BEING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. RADAR ELEVATION
SLICES SHOW THAT 40-50 DBZ CORE IS EXTENDING ABOVE THE 0C LEVEL SO
SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES
MOVING OVER AND EAST OF ROCHESTER. SEVERAL REPORTS OF THIS HAVE
RECENTLY COME INTO THE OFFICE.
FOLLOWING RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES.
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS EXPECT MOST OF
THE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND OF LAKE SHADOWS NORTHEAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MID 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE
FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE
SHADOWS SHOULD KEEP THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING BUFFALO MAINLY
DRY...AND ALSO NEAR WATERTOWN AS WELL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS MIXING OCCURS
AND FUNNELING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-40
KNOT RANGE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NEW YORK TO THE FINGER LAKES. 12Z BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE
THAT MEAN MOMENTUM TRANSPORT GUSTS WILL RUN IN THE LOWER 40KT RANGE
SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
MAINE...WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY SHARPENING AND DIGGING
SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIP COVERAGE PEAKING
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS DPVA AHEAD OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL COOL THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO QUICKLY
CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
THAN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON FRIDAY.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT THE AIRMASS GROWS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
LAKE RESPONSE ON FRIDAY AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO
AROUND 7K FEET. THIS WILL SUPPORT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EXPECT A COATING TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION WITH
AN ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE DRAMATICALLY
COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH MID 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WILL END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER LAKES AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AIRMASS BECOMES VERY DRY.
EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE RETURN OF
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING A CONSTANT FEED OF FRESH CANADIAN AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE TO GO ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS NOW IN KEEPING A COASTAL LOW MUCH
TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INSTEAD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
SOME LOCAL MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA IN KROC/KART
TAFS TO COVER FOR THIS. SOME SMALL HAIL HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED
WITHIN THE STRONGER STORM CORES AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. THE WESTERN
TAFS ARE NOW CLEAR OF THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TSTMS WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST.
TONIGHT EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT ALONG
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE
FOR KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW.
THURSDAY THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR TODAYS STORMS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES. THIS WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS GUSTY
WINDS WHICH WILL LIKELY REACH OVER 40KTS DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEVERAL SHORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT WINDS
AND WAVES OUTSIDE OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.
ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS OVER LAKE ERIE UNDER
A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL BUILD WAVES ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER.
A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LIKELY BRINGING SCA
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ002-003-
010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ020-040-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
359 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A
SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
...SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
REVEALED THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX. THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN A COUPLE OF TONIGHT/S SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
FIRSTLY...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MILD
/COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT/. READINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE RED RIVER TO 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. IF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT STREAM AS FAR NORTH AS CURRENT
THINKING...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD TOO WARM....ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD FALL
SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO RESULT IN SOME
PATCHY FOG AND AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.
WITH REGARDS TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
REMAINS FAIRLY INCONSISTENT IN ITS SOLUTIONS BOTH IN TIME AND
SPACE FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. COARSER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...IS VERY INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING A CONVEYOR OF
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER 25 TO 35 KNOTS...WHICH WOULD
CERTAINLY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL. DUE TO THE LACK
OF FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE IN
THE AREAL COVERAGE REMAINS LOW. AS A RESULT...FORECAST POPS
TONIGHT REMAIN FAIRLY BROADBRUSHED. WITH THE BEST CONVEYOR OF
NORTHWARD THETA-E TRANSPORT GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THIS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL GENERALLY
SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.
FOR THURSDAY...MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO HAVE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE LOCATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT AND
PLACES THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO THE REST OF
THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH
ENOUGH TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DOWN
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES DOWN INTO THE MID
60S. SHOULD PRECIPITATION FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT THAN CURRENTLY THOUGHT...THESE VALUES
MAY BE TOO HIGH. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DE-STABILIZE THROUGH THE
DAY. MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A CAPPING
INVERSION...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND LIFTING OF THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IF MORE INSOLATION OCCURS THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST REFLECTS. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY /1500 TO 2000
J/KG / AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 30 TO 40 KT...STRONG TO A
FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE RED RIVER LATE IN THE DAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FAIRLY MILD. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WAA REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL.
FOR FRIDAY...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN CHALLENGING...THOUGH
MODEL AGREEMENT IS SURPRISINGLY A BIT HIGHER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. WHILE A MAJORITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...A FAIRLY POTENT TROUGH SHOULD
REINFORCE COLDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. WITH RAPID PRESSURE RISES
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SWEEP
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BETTER RAIN THREAT...INITIALLY ALONG THE RED
RIVER DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
LATER FOR OTHER PARTS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY PROFILES STILL
APPEAR TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR GRADUALLY
WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO THE
NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY SMALL LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP.
A HAIL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DUE TO THE WEAKENING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SIZES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF COLD
FROPA AS WELL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
...LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FOR SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS STRONG COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION IS USHERED IN. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-35 WILL CONTINUE AND MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA
AND 40S/50S ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE QUITE THE CHANGE
WITH REGARDS TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS! INDIVIDUALS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ON SATURDAY WILL WANT TO
DRESS ACCORDINGLY! HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE
50S AND 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. EXPECT A VERY CHILLY MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL FALL
INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS. THESE LOCATIONS MAY BE AT RISK FOR A
LATE SEASON FROST...BUT ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE EXAMINED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOW
LEVEL GULF AIR SHOULD BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE AND
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR
RETURNING NORTHWARD...AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU...A DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN...SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY AND MOVE EASTWARD. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.
BAIN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1242 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS THE FRONT THAT IS NOW
STALLED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE RAP LIFTS THIS FRONT RAPIDLY
NORTH INTO THE METROPLEX BY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS THE
NORTHERN-MOST OUTLIER. IF THIS SOLUTION DID OCCUR MVFR CIGS WOULD
CERTAINLY SPREAD INTO THE METROPLEX AFTER SUNRISE...AND THERE
WOULD BE A HIGHER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS FORECAST
HOWEVER...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE FORECAST CONSENSUS WHICH MOVES
THE FRONT AS FAR NORTH AS WACO. WILL BRING MVFR CIGS INTO WACO
AROUND 7Z WITH IFR AROUND 11Z. WILL BRING VFR CIGS INTO THE
METROPLEX AFTER DAYBREAK. AGAIN...ASIDE FROM THE RAP ALL MODELS
FORECAST THESE TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT.
OTHERWISE THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE
DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AREAWIDE
THURSDAY...BUT FORCING LOOKS LIMITED AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF RAIN OR STORMS OUT OF ALL OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW AREAL COVERAGE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BUT THESE
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AT 10KT AFTER SUNSET.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 55 71 56 65 46 / 20 30 40 40 30
WACO, TX 58 74 58 69 48 / 20 30 30 40 50
PARIS, TX 49 70 52 63 44 / 5 30 40 40 20
DENTON, TX 51 70 53 63 44 / 20 30 40 40 30
MCKINNEY, TX 50 70 53 63 44 / 10 30 40 40 30
DALLAS, TX 54 71 55 65 47 / 10 30 40 40 30
TERRELL, TX 53 72 54 65 46 / 10 30 40 40 30
CORSICANA, TX 57 74 57 67 48 / 20 30 30 40 40
TEMPLE, TX 61 74 61 70 49 / 20 30 30 40 50
MINERAL WELLS, TX 52 68 54 64 43 / 20 30 40 40 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
92/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1242 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016
.AVIATION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS THE FRONT THAT IS NOW
STALLED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE RAP LIFTS THIS FRONT RAPIDLY
NORTH INTO THE METROPLEX BY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS THE
NORTHERN-MOST OUTLIER. IF THIS SOLUTION DID OCCUR MVFR CIGS WOULD
CERTAINLY SPREAD INTO THE METROPLEX AFTER SUNRISE...AND THERE
WOULD BE A HIGHER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS FORECAST
HOWEVER...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE FORECAST CONSENSUS WHICH MOVES
THE FRONT AS FAR NORTH AS WACO. WILL BRING MVFR CIGS INTO WACO
AROUND 7Z WITH IFR AROUND 11Z. WILL BRING VFR CIGS INTO THE
METROPLEX AFTER DAYBREAK. AGAIN...ASIDE FROM THE RAP ALL MODELS
FORECAST THESE TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT.
OTHERWISE THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE
DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AREAWIDE
THURSDAY...BUT FORCING LOOKS LIMITED AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF RAIN OR STORMS OUT OF ALL OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW AREAL COVERAGE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BUT THESE
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AT 10KT AFTER SUNSET.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
YESTERDAY HAS REACHED THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE
RETURN FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE FRONT WILL START TO
RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
WARM ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA TONIGHT DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MOST RECENT ROUND OF
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ENOUGH LIFT WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE
ONSET OF SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. GOOD SHEAR AND MARGINAL LEVELS
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...WITH THE MOST LIKELY
AREA OF INITIATION NOW APPEARING TO BE BE NORTH OF I-20 AND WEST
OF I-35. EAST-SOUTHEAST STORM MOTION WOULD...HOWEVER...BRING
STORMS WHICH SURVIVE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TO AREAS ALONG OR
SOUTH OF I-20.
THE FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT....BUT THE BEST SHEAR IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE STRONGEST
WESTERLIES WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. BROAD-BRUSHED 30 POPS WILL
HAVE TO SUFFICE FOR NOW AND WE WILL ADJUST LATER IF HI-RES
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO FAVOR ONE REGION OVER ANOTHER. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE GENERALLY DISORGANIZED IN NATURE...BUT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
ON FRIDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SENDING A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH CONVECTION SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE FRONT. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE
INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE TOO LOW TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 78 55 71 56 65 / 5 20 30 40 40
WACO, TX 79 58 74 58 69 / 5 20 30 30 40
PARIS, TX 75 49 70 52 63 / 5 5 30 40 40
DENTON, TX 76 51 70 53 63 / 5 20 30 40 40
MCKINNEY, TX 75 50 70 53 63 / 5 10 30 40 40
DALLAS, TX 78 54 71 55 65 / 5 10 30 40 40
TERRELL, TX 77 53 72 54 65 / 5 10 30 40 40
CORSICANA, TX 79 57 74 57 67 / 5 20 30 30 40
TEMPLE, TX 79 61 74 61 70 / 10 20 30 30 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 77 52 68 54 64 / 5 20 30 40 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$