Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/14/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS DELMARVA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING THE MID-
WEEK PERIOD. ITS ATTACHED FRONTS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RAINFALL HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING AS ONE SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SLIDES NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL NOT LAST AS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESSES. MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT LEADING TO ENHANCED LIFT. AS THE RAIN
INCREASES OVERNIGHT, WE COULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL AT TIMES.
WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT, BUT MOST GUIDANCE
KEEPS ALL OF OUR AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING
POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS THE 12Z HIRES ARW/NMM, BUT ALL
OTHERS, INCLUDING THE THE RAP AND HRRR, ARE KEEPING ALL AREAS
ABOVE FREEZING. SO, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ, WE
WILL KEEP THE PRECIP ALL RAIN FOR OUR REGION.
THE OTHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE WINDS, AS A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS EVEN THOUGH
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PREVENT OPTIMAL MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY MONDAY. THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING, AND WE
ACTUALLY COULD SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE RAIN BY MID DAY MONDAY
AS A DRY SLOT MOVES OVER OUR REGION BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR REGION. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS
ACROSS DELMARVA SHOW MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SO, IF PRECIP
STILL IS ONGOING BY THIS TIME, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS DELMARVA. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, INSTABILITY
IS EXTREMELY LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
WE INSERTED A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST 2,000-3,000
FEET OR SO, WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM S TO N AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
JUST OFF THE S NJ SHORE, CREATING A LOCALIZED MINIMUM IN THE
WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
LEADING TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FASTER MOVING THAN THE
PREVIOUS, AND THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST,
SO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE COASTAL NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA, WHERE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
WE KEEP A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE
SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST 2,000-3,000
FEET OR SO, WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING PRECEDING A WARM FROPA. THEN WE TURN
OUR ATTENTION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
WED MORNING WITH THE WARM FROPA, THEN WED AFTN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A COUPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY AFFECT THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THE ECMWF INDICATES
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH A RAIN EVENT FOR THE
REGION, WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION TAKES A COASTAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z
AS HEAVIER RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY 11Z-13Z ACROSS THE AREA.
THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY, THEN
DRIZZLE AND FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL OCCUR EARLY, BEFORE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY JET
DEVELOPS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, IF THERE IS
A STRONG ENOUGH INVERSION THAT PREVENTS GUSTY WINDS FROM
DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE, THERE COULD BE LLWS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN
LOW CLOUDS, FOG, AND SHRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS MAY TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR IN
FOG, ESPECIALLY TERMINALS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-95.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS NORTHWEST OF I-95. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
PUNCTUATED BY MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OUT OF THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE DELAWARE COASTAL WATERS, THE
COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE DELAWARE BAY, AND THE DELAWARE BAY,
EXPECT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY FROM S TO N AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE S NJ SHORE BY MID
DAY. HOWEVER, ELEVATED SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS MAY LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...GALES AND SCA CURRENTLY POSTED COME DOWN
AT MIDNIGHT MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND SCA FOR RESIDUAL
HAZARDOUS SEAS INTO THE DAY TUE.
WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCA WITH A WARM AND COLD
FROPA, WED AND THU, RESPECTIVELY. ATTM, SUB-SCA FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
OUR CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES IS LOW FOR THE ENTIRE WED-FRI PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE`RE WATCHING THE HIGH TIDE AROUND NOON MONDAY ALONG THE OCEAN-
FRONT AND BAYS, MOVING UP THE DELAWARE RIVER INTO MON EVENING. AT
THIS TIME, ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES SUB-ADVISORY WATER
LEVELS ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS UPPER DELAWARE BAY, WHERE THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR FLOODING, AS INDICATED BY NOS OFS GUIDANCE FOR REEDY
POINT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
TO CONFIRM...MARCH HAS BEEN EXCESSIVELY WARM AND THROUGH THE 12TH
HAS AVERAGED 6 TO 9.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DROP TO NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND (19TH
AND 20TH). THAT IS GOING TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH
OF MARCH TO COOL ENOUGH TO BE WITHIN 2F OF NORMAL.
AS OF THE 12TH...PHILADELPHIA WAS AVERAGING THE 6TH WARMEST MARCH
IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD DATING BACK TO 1874. THE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE 12TH WAS 49.3 DEGREES. NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 43.5
(30 YEAR ENDING 2010). THE WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD IN PHILADELPHIA
WAS THE 52.5 AVERAGE IN 1921.
ITS TOO EARLY FOR PROJECTIONS-RANKINGS. WE MAY START LOOKING AT
THIS MORE CLOSELY NEXT WEEKEND.
NOT SURE IF ANYONE CHECKED, BUT CPC IS OUTLOOKING ODDS FAVORING
EVERY 3 MONTH PERIOD FROM NOW THROUGH OCT-DEC 2016 BEING ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ454-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
913 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
...WARM TEMPS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS...
.UPDATE...A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AXIS WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS N-CENTRAL FL. LOW STRATUS AND SEA FOG FORMED OVER OUR ZONES
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND GRADUAL EROSION CONTINUED THIS HOUR WITH
LOW STRATUS HUGGING MAINLY COASTAL AREAS. HRRR INITIALED WELL AND
INDICATED THE LOW BANK DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS A FEW SHOWERS WERE
POPPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE CAPE AND INLAND EAST
OF TBW. AS THIS CONVERGENCE LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE
AFTN...ANTICIPATE A FEW SHOWERS POPPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NE
FL AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM THE
SEA BREEZES. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SHALLOW AND ISOLATED IN NATURE
GIVEN STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z N FL
RAOBS. TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID
70S COAST PER THE SEA BREEZE.
&&
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING TO VFR INLAND WITH LOW
STRATUS SKIRTING OVER COASTAL COUNTIES BRINGING LIFR TO IFR CIGS.
ANTICIPATE GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR INLAND BY MIDDAY
WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SGJ AND SSI DUE TO LOW
STRATUS OFFSHORE. LOW CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY INLAND NEAR GNV AND VQQ...BUT PROBABILITY
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY.
COMBINED SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 85 64 80 58 / 10 20 60 20
SSI 74 62 74 62 / 10 10 50 30
JAX 81 63 81 61 / 20 20 60 30
SGJ 77 64 77 63 / 10 20 60 40
GNV 82 63 79 61 / 20 20 50 40
OCF 83 63 81 62 / 20 10 60 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ALLEN/COMBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
821 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. DROPPED POPS OVER ALL BUT
SE ZONES THRU 10P THEN NO POPS UNTIL 6AM WHEN PRECIP FROM NEXT
WAVE APPROACHES NW GA. TEMPS DROPPING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT
SHOULD BE ON TRACK AFTER TWEAK.
IN SPITE OF CURRENT SUPERCELLS AND SVR STORMS IN MIDSOUTH
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE STATE
TOMORROW...TEMPS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WARMER ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE QUITE A BIT LOWER MONDAY AFTERNOON THAN WHAT THEY`RE
SEEING IN ARKANSAS. WILL LOOK AT THIS MORE CAREFULLY BUT STILL
APPEARS WE WILL MISS ANY SIGNIFICANT STRONG/SVR STORMS.
SNELSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FIRST PART OF SHORT TERM CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK IMPULSE PUSHING NEWD
AND A MORE DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO ATHENS LINE WHERE SOLAR SHELTERING ALONG THE EDGE OF SOME
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING HAS RESULTED IN A THERMAL
GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD HELP FOCUS ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE INITIATION
FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. RAP GUIDANCE AND LATEST TRENDS
SUPPORT 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE FOR SOUTHEAST TIER SO COULD HAVE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH BEYOND GENERAL THREAT.
SHOULD HAVE LULL IN ANY PRECIP OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE...WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
MOIST/TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED 975MB RH
FIELD SHOWING GOOD SATURATION. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF
GREATER COVERAGE IF WE GET SOME LOCATIONS OF CLEARING NEAR MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE MONDAY WILL HAVE A QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP POTENTIAL
MAINLY TO NORTH GA WITH GREATEST CHANCE IN AFTERNOON. THE TIMING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROGGED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DECENT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AND PERHAPS A HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER DEVELOPMENT. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FCST QPF SPITS
OUT UPWARDS OF A QUICK QUARTER INCH FOR THE NORTHERN TIER WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE...THOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS.
TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABNORMALLY HIGH WITH VALUES AT 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO. DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE MORE LIMITED FROM ANY
PRECIP/ENHANCED CLOUD COVERAGE FROM AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE.
BAKER
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS LONG RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET PERIOD ON TUESDAY... BEFORE
SAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... JUST STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY
JUST WHERE THIS FOCUS WILL BE. LATEST MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES BEING OVER CENTRAL GA... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD ONTO POPS ACROSS NORTH GA AS WELL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WET PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND... WARRANTING CHANCE
POPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT LEAST ON SATURDAY. STAY
TUNED. 39
PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016/
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TN VALLEY SHORT WAVE. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED WITH THIS...BUT MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE FRONT
AS IT DRIFTS INTO CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY. LOW POPS LOOK OKAY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SOME DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS IS NOT AS
CLEAR CUT...HOWEVER CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL LOOK
OKAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM BUT SOME COOLING IS NOTED TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE CHC FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MONDAY MORNING
AND CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA MONDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE
AND EXPECTED PATTERN...MVFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY AFTER 10Z. IF CIGS
HOLD OFF...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY IFR VSBYS AT AIRPORTS PRONE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUCH AS FTY...AHN AND MCN. OTHERWISE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY VSBYS BELOW 5SM. COULD SEE SCT SHRA AFTER 19Z MON OVER
NORTH GA AIRPORTS. CANT RULE OUT TSRA BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FCST ATTM. SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WSW WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 6-12KTS AFTER 18Z MON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW ON LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA MON AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM ON IFR CIGS/VSBYS MON MORNING.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
SNELSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 55 77 53 / 50 20 30 10
ATLANTA 76 57 75 55 / 40 10 30 10
BLAIRSVILLE 72 51 69 49 / 70 20 40 20
CARTERSVILLE 74 54 73 51 / 40 10 30 10
COLUMBUS 83 57 79 56 / 30 5 20 5
GAINESVILLE 74 54 72 53 / 50 20 30 10
MACON 83 57 79 55 / 40 20 10 5
ROME 73 54 74 50 / 40 20 40 10
PEACHTREE CITY 77 53 75 51 / 40 10 30 5
VIDALIA 78 61 83 59 / 50 30 10 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...SNELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1250 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016/
.UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS GIVEN AREAS
OF CLOUD COVERAGE IN CENTRAL GA...MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY
POPS INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PRECIP IS HAVING A HARD
TIME PROPAGATING NEWD. SEVERAL FACTORS SEEM TO BE WORKING AGAINST
US SEEING AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING POTENTIAL UPSTREAM
GULF CONVECTION CUTTING OFF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE UPPER VORT
MAX BEING THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA
NEAR 06Z TONIGHT...UNLESS WEAK AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT CAN INITIATE ANYTHING. CAPE IS MEAGER AT
BEST BY LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN DECENT 700MB CAP IN MORNING SOUNDING
AND RAP TRENDS. DELAYED ANY SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCE TO NW AFTER 21Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PERSISTENT...DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH
TEXAS FINALLY GETS SHUNTED NORTHEAST TODAY AS A COMPACT BUT FAIRLY
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. INITIAL UPPER LOW
SWEEPS THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...HOWEVER I HAVE KEPT POPS LIMITED TO LIKELY AT BEST AFTER
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA QUICKLY AND
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER
LIMITED CAPE AND WEAK DYNAMICS SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. QPF VALUES DO NOT INDICATE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
20
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTH TX UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE TN
AND OH VALLEY VICINITY BY MONDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PULLING IT
A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE BEST COMPROMISE WOULD SEEM TO CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NORTH HALF OF GA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS
AGREE THAT TUESDAY LOOKS DRY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE NOT AS
CLEAR CUT...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSING
THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND CENTRAL FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DRY BUT A SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO
THE OH VALLEY COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
EXTREME NORTH. ECMWF INCREASES MOISTURE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND EASTWARD FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER. TO
COMPROMISE...CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR FRIDAY.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS AND
POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR VSBY REDUCTION AS DISTURBANCE BRINGS
-SHRA ACROSS SITES...GREATEST CHANCE AFTER 04-08Z THEN LINGERING
INTO SUNDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA SUNDAY MORNING SO INCLUDED
PROB30 FOR 09-15Z PERIOD NEAR KATL AND SLIGHTLY SHIFTED HOURS FOR
OTHER SITES. MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE SUNDAY GIVEN
HOW PRECIP TRENDS. WINDS GENERALLY SE UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT THEN SWING SW AFTER ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON PRECIP TIMING AND CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 79 61 73 55 / 20 60 60 20
ATLANTA 77 61 74 57 / 30 70 60 5
BLAIRSVILLE 73 58 68 51 / 40 70 60 20
CARTERSVILLE 76 60 75 55 / 40 80 60 10
COLUMBUS 78 62 78 57 / 30 70 60 10
GAINESVILLE 77 60 71 55 / 30 60 60 20
MACON 81 62 78 57 / 10 60 60 5
ROME 75 59 75 55 / 50 80 60 20
PEACHTREE CITY 77 60 76 54 / 30 70 60 5
VIDALIA 84 64 77 60 / 5 40 60 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS GIVEN AREAS
OF CLOUD COVERAGE IN CENTRAL GA...MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY
POPS INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PRECIP IS HAVING A HARD
TIME PROPAGATING NEWD. SEVERAL FACTORS SEEM TO BE WORKING AGAINST
US SEEING AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING POTENTIAL UPSTREAM
GULF CONVECTION CUTTING OFF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE UPPER VORT
MAX BEING THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA
NEAR 06Z TONIGHT...UNLESS WEAK AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT CAN INITIATE ANYTHING. CAPE IS MEAGER AT
BEST BY LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN DECENT 700MB CAP IN MORNING SOUNDING
AND RAP TRENDS. DELAYED ANY SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCE TO NW AFTER 21Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PERSISTENT...DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH
TEXAS FINALLY GETS SHUNTED NORTHEAST TODAY AS A COMPACT BUT FAIRLY
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. INITIAL UPPER LOW
SWEEPS THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...HOWEVER I HAVE KEPT POPS LIMITED TO LIKELY AT BEST AFTER
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA QUICKLY AND
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER
LIMITED CAPE AND WEAK DYNAMICS SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. QPF VALUES DO NOT INDICATE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
20
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTH TX UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE TN
AND OH VALLEY VICINITY BY MONDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PULLING IT
A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE BEST COMPROMISE WOULD SEEM TO CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NORTH HALF OF GA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS
AGREE THAT TUESDAY LOOKS DRY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE NOT AS
CLEAR CUT...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSING
THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND CENTRAL FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DRY BUT A SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO
THE OH VALLEY COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
EXTREME NORTH. ECMWF INCREASES MOISTURE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND EASTWARD FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER. TO
COMPROMISE...CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR FRIDAY.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 04Z. LOCAL TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER ONLY BRIEF IMPACTS POSSIBLE
AT MAINLY THE KAHN...KMCN...KCSG TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF AREA BY 18-
22Z...SPREADING EAST AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL SEE MVFR OR
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z IN AREAS OF
PERSISTENT RAIN. WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...BUT
SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 3-8KT THROUGH 12Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CEILINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 79 61 73 55 / 20 60 60 20
ATLANTA 77 61 74 57 / 30 70 60 5
BLAIRSVILLE 73 58 68 51 / 40 70 60 20
CARTERSVILLE 76 60 75 55 / 40 80 60 10
COLUMBUS 78 62 78 57 / 30 70 60 10
GAINESVILLE 77 60 71 55 / 30 60 60 20
MACON 81 62 78 57 / 10 60 60 5
ROME 75 59 75 55 / 50 80 60 20
PEACHTREE CITY 77 60 76 54 / 30 70 60 5
VIDALIA 84 64 77 60 / 5 40 60 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
159 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE AREA
TODAY THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE MOIST FLOW OVER THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. THE HRRR SHOWS REDUCED VISIBILITIES MOVING FROM THE
COASTAL PLAN INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS FROM 09 Z TO 15 Z.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR...AFTERNOON
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MIDDLE 80S.
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DON`T FORGET TO SET YOUR CLOCKS
AHEAD AS WE SPRING FORWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER
LOW THATS BEEN SPINNING OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TO FINALLY EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT EAST OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS REMAINING
IN THE 60S.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING WEST OF THE AREA...AND THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. MINIMAL INSTABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH
THE DAY. AREA SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WOULD
EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAT PREVIOUS
DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECONDARY TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME MOISTURE COMING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THIS LOW...AND WITH IT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE THIS LOW PUSHES EAST
LATE MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS A DEEPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SETUP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE 09Z-14Z.
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SO HAVE
REMAINED WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR OGB...AS WELL AS FOG PRONE
AGS...WITH MVFR AT CAE/CUB/DNL. THREAT FOR LIFR TO IFR AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ATTM GIVEN MODEL BIAS PAST FEW DAYS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
902 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
Weather system that produced today`s rainfall has shifted off into
the Great Lakes, taking the bulk of the showers with it. However,
another system, currently spinning across Arkansas, is expected to
track northeast into the Ohio River Valley later tonight. This
system will bring a renewed threat for showers, especially south
of I-70. Southeast Illinois may also see a few thunderstorms with
this rainfall. Light winds between these two weather systems and
the moist ground from today`s rains will set the table for areas
of fog to develop. While there is the potential for dense fog to
develop, expect this threat to be mitigated to at least some
degree by the thick cloud cover in place.
Going forecast was in good overall shape. Main updates required
were to precipitation trends, with mainly dry conditions expected
for the next several hours until the next system draws closer.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1005mb low near KPIA, with
widespread light showers ongoing across the western half of the KILX
CWA. Further east and south, the steady precip has diminished to
widely scattered showers along/south of a Danville to Taylorville
line. The primary area of rain will continue to dissipate/retreat
northward as the low tracks into northern Illinois this evening.
Based on radar timing tools, most of the rain will be just north of
the CWA by early evening. Will therefore only carry chance PoPs
through the evening, with highest chances focused across the far
north around Galesburg and Lacon in closer proximity to the departing
low. A second area of low pressure currently over Oklahoma will
track into western Kentucky by Monday morning. This feature will
spread showers and a few thunderstorms into the SE CWA overnight, so
have carried likely PoPs along/south of I-70 after midnight
accordingly. Due to a very weak pressure gradient, winds will be
light and variable tonight. With nearly calm winds and ample low-
level moisture left behind by the rainfall today, think fog will re-
develop across the area tonight. HRRR continues to show widespread
fog across all but the SE where rain will be falling. The fog could
potentially become dense: however, timing and areal extent remain in
question. Will carry areas of fog in the forecast, but later shifts
may need to issue a Dense Fog Advisory if trends become apparent
later this evening.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
Forecast focus this period on the threat for severe weather over
parts of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Compact upper level storm tracking east-northeast through Arkansas
then into western Ky Monday morning will bring showers and isolated
storms to parts of southeast Illinois, at least through the morning
hours, while further north, the low clouds, fog and shower chances
end from northwest to southeast during the morning with only the
southeast quarter of the forecast area still seeing the threat for
afternoon showers. Forecast soundings continue to hold on to the low
level moisture across the area into the afternoon hours so the
prospects for much in the way of sunshine are low, with most areas
seeing afternoon temperatures rise into the low to mid 60s.
As the deepening upper wave for Tuesday pushes across the Rockies
and into the high Plains late Monday night, the threat for at
least scattered showers and storms will increase out to our west
Monday night with chances increasing over our western counties
after Midnight. Still some significant differences with respect to
how quickly the upper wave tracks east across the Great Lakes with
the ECMWF the slowest, while the GFS remains the fastest in pushing
the front to our east by late afternoon Tuesday. The ECMWF digs
the shortwave southeast in response to ridging over the eastern
Pacific and that is tending to slow the system down compared to
the more progressive look from the GFS and SREF ensemble solutions.
You would have thought we would have seen a slowing trend from the
GFS, NAM and SREF solutions by now, but up through the 12z models
runs of today, we haven`t, which keeps confidence on timing and
storm mode in our area on Tuesday low.
All models continue to show deep layer shear associated with the
upper wave as it becomes negatively tilted late in the day Tuesday
with strong low level turning of the winds seen on the hodographs,
especially off the NAM. 850 mb winds depicted on the ECMWF were
southeasterly at 40-45 kts in the 21z-00z time frame across our
north. SREF forecasts of surface dew points were a bit more
conservative on Tuesday afternoon, compared with the NAM, with
mostly middle 50s forecast across our area, while the NAM near
60 degree dew points which pushed SB cape values above 2500 J/KG
over the eastern half of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon.
Forecast soundings off the NAM and GFS continue to show a capping
inversion in place at least into the early afternoon hours before
low level convergence starts to increase in the 925-850 mb layer
just ahead of the front, which should allow convection to
develop. The 4km NAM-WRF reflectivity simulations suggest the
development of storms off to our east after 21z just ahead of the
increasing low level moisture convergence. However, if the timing
off the ECMWF is correct, storms will develop by mid afternoon
further west, along or just west of Interstate 55 and streak east-
northeast through the rest of the forecast area by 02z.
Based off the low level wind profiles seen on the ECMWF, discrete
supercells capable of large hail (with 700-500 mb lapse rates over
7.0 C/KM) damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible
for a few hours, especially if the high dew points seen on the NAM
verify, before cells consolidate into a fast moving line with
mainly a damaging wind threat through late afternoon into early
evening. If the GFS verifies, storms will develop in areas east of
I-55 and be out of our area by 00z. Still quite a bit of uncertainty
with the timing of the shortwave and attendant cold front for late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. For now, will continue to mention
the higher probabilities for damaging straight line winds and hail
in the HWO for Tuesday, but as mentioned above, if the low level
moisture increases more than what is advertised in most models,
the tornado threat will start to become a concern as well Tuesday
afternoon.
Highest POPS for Tuesday will continue to be across the north with
progressively lower POPs as you head south during the afternoon and
evening. Strong gusty southerly winds are expected by late morning
into the afternoon hours as the deepening upper and surface lows
track to our west-northwest. Shower chances start to decrease
later Tuesday night as the front shifts well off to our east and
then windy conditions expected Wednesday in the wake of the storm
as it tracks slowly east across north-central Wisconsin.
Temperatures at least initially, will not cool off much on Wed.
with upper 50s to lower 60s expected during the afternoon, with
the gradual cooling trend starting on Thursday and continuing
through Sunday with temperatures returning closer to normal for
this time of year. Our next chance for rain across central IL will
be next weekend, but POPs were kept low this far out as model
spread was large.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
Looking like IFR conditions will prevail for a majority of the 00Z
TAF valid time across the central Illinois terminals. Showers from
the today`s weather system are pulling away for the most part, but
additional showers are possible for much of the period from a
second system that is starting to move into the Ohio River Valley.
Light winds between these two systems, coupled with today`s
rainfall, is expected to keep considerable low clouds/fog in the
forecast well into Monday. However, some improvement is likely
late in the period as the Ohio Valley system pulls away from the
area.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
649 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1005mb low near KPIA, with
widespread light showers ongoing across the western half of the KILX
CWA. Further east and south, the steady precip has diminished to
widely scattered showers along/south of a Danville to Taylorville
line. The primary area of rain will continue to dissipate/retreat
northward as the low tracks into northern Illinois this evening.
Based on radar timing tools, most of the rain will be just north of
the CWA by early evening. Will therefore only carry chance PoPs
through the evening, with highest chances focused across the far
north around Galesburg and Lacon in closer proximity to the departing
low. A second area of low pressure currently over Oklahoma will
track into western Kentucky by Monday morning. This feature will
spread showers and a few thunderstorms into the SE CWA overnight, so
have carried likely PoPs along/south of I-70 after midnight
accordingly. Due to a very weak pressure gradient, winds will be
light and variable tonight. With nearly calm winds and ample low-
level moisture left behind by the rainfall today, think fog will re-
develop across the area tonight. HRRR continues to show widespread
fog across all but the SE where rain will be falling. The fog could
potentially become dense: however, timing and areal extent remain in
question. Will carry areas of fog in the forecast, but later shifts
may need to issue a Dense Fog Advisory if trends become apparent
later this evening.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
Forecast focus this period on the threat for severe weather over
parts of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Compact upper level storm tracking east-northeast through Arkansas
then into western Ky Monday morning will bring showers and isolated
storms to parts of southeast Illinois, at least through the morning
hours, while further north, the low clouds, fog and shower chances
end from northwest to southeast during the morning with only the
southeast quarter of the forecast area still seeing the threat for
afternoon showers. Forecast soundings continue to hold on to the low
level moisture across the area into the afternoon hours so the
prospects for much in the way of sunshine are low, with most areas
seeing afternoon temperatures rise into the low to mid 60s.
As the deepening upper wave for Tuesday pushes across the Rockies
and into the high Plains late Monday night, the threat for at
least scattered showers and storms will increase out to our west
Monday night with chances increasing over our western counties
after Midnight. Still some significant differences with respect to
how quickly the upper wave tracks east across the Great Lakes with
the ECMWF the slowest, while the GFS remains the fastest in pushing
the front to our east by late afternoon Tuesday. The ECMWF digs
the shortwave southeast in response to ridging over the eastern
Pacific and that is tending to slow the system down compared to
the more progressive look from the GFS and SREF ensemble solutions.
You would have thought we would have seen a slowing trend from the
GFS, NAM and SREF solutions by now, but up through the 12z models
runs of today, we haven`t, which keeps confidence on timing and
storm mode in our area on Tuesday low.
All models continue to show deep layer shear associated with the
upper wave as it becomes negatively tilted late in the day Tuesday
with strong low level turning of the winds seen on the hodographs,
especially off the NAM. 850 mb winds depicted on the ECMWF were
southeasterly at 40-45 kts in the 21z-00z time frame across our
north. SREF forecasts of surface dew points were a bit more
conservative on Tuesday afternoon, compared with the NAM, with
mostly middle 50s forecast across our area, while the NAM near
60 degree dew points which pushed SB cape values above 2500 J/KG
over the eastern half of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon.
Forecast soundings off the NAM and GFS continue to show a capping
inversion in place at least into the early afternoon hours before
low level convergence starts to increase in the 925-850 mb layer
just ahead of the front, which should allow convection to
develop. The 4km NAM-WRF reflectivity simulations suggest the
development of storms off to our east after 21z just ahead of the
increasing low level moisture convergence. However, if the timing
off the ECMWF is correct, storms will develop by mid afternoon
further west, along or just west of Interstate 55 and streak east-
northeast through the rest of the forecast area by 02z.
Based off the low level wind profiles seen on the ECMWF, discrete
supercells capable of large hail (with 700-500 mb lapse rates over
7.0 C/KM) damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible
for a few hours, especially if the high dew points seen on the NAM
verify, before cells consolidate into a fast moving line with
mainly a damaging wind threat through late afternoon into early
evening. If the GFS verifies, storms will develop in areas east of
I-55 and be out of our area by 00z. Still quite a bit of uncertainty
with the timing of the shortwave and attendant cold front for late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. For now, will continue to mention
the higher probabilities for damaging straight line winds and hail
in the HWO for Tuesday, but as mentioned above, if the low level
moisture increases more than what is advertised in most models,
the tornado threat will start to become a concern as well Tuesday
afternoon.
Highest POPS for Tuesday will continue to be across the north with
progressively lower POPs as you head south during the afternoon and
evening. Strong gusty southerly winds are expected by late morning
into the afternoon hours as the deepening upper and surface lows
track to our west-northwest. Shower chances start to decrease
later Tuesday night as the front shifts well off to our east and
then windy conditions expected Wednesday in the wake of the storm
as it tracks slowly east across north-central Wisconsin.
Temperatures at least initially, will not cool off much on Wed.
with upper 50s to lower 60s expected during the afternoon, with
the gradual cooling trend starting on Thursday and continuing
through Sunday with temperatures returning closer to normal for
this time of year. Our next chance for rain across central IL will
be next weekend, but POPs were kept low this far out as model
spread was large.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
Looking like IFR conditions will prevail for a majority of the 00Z
TAF valid time across the central Illinois terminals. Showers from
the today`s weather system are pulling away for the most part, but
additional showers are possible for much of the period from a
second system that is starting to move into the Ohio River Valley.
Light winds between these two systems, coupled with today`s
rainfall, is expected to keep considerable low clouds/fog in the
forecast well into Monday. However, some improvement is likely
late in the period as the Ohio Valley system pulls away from the
area.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
306 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...
231 PM CST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST IS ON PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AS RAIN EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE CWA OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. FARTHER
SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST...AND IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO
REGION OF WEAK PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE/OLD CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WHICH IS BEING KICKED OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST BY ANOTHER STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS IL/IN SUNDAY...WITH PRECIP
POTENTIAL RAMPING UP ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND INCREASES MOIST ASCENT ACROSS LOW LEVEL WARM
FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. IN FACT A WEAKER LEAD SHORT WAVE
WAS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MO/EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON IN A
REGION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
300-305 K THETA SURFACES. AMDAR AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS DEPICT
LOW LEVELS BELOW 500-600 MB ARE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
IL...AND WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN AND SATURATE MORE
FULLY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL INTO THIS EVENING. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH-NORTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES.
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE CWA GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS THE GREATEST
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
EVENING WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE.
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AGAIN GIVEN ALIGNMENT OF FORCING FEATURES
AND PWATS OF 1+ INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90 PERCENTILE BASED
ON ILX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID-MARCH. DEEP MOIST-ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES ALSO APPEAR TO YIELD SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TIER OR SO OF CWA COUNTIES
FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPS REACHED THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHGAN THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE CLIMB SOMEWHAT. CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL DEW POINT TEMPS SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 40S MOST AREAS AND AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH...AND
DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...PURE ADVECTION
OF WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMP AGAIN IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S SOUTH. INCREASING EAST WINDS (10-20 MPH) WILL COMBINE
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO KEEP THINGS COOLER NORTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WAVE AND BAROCLINIC REGION...WITH TEMPS FROM THE MID
40S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE LOWER 50S FARTHER INLAND IN LINE
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
303 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WITH RETURNING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIME.
A WET START TO THE PERIOD IS STILL APPEARING LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT.
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSING THIS FLOW
ALONG WITH SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE REFLECTION LOOK TO STILL PROVIDE
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. DID MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR
THE AREA IN THE EVENING BUT SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEPART TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IN THE EVENING
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT LOCATION WILL STILL LIKELY BE
IN AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR. SO HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY FOR THE INDIANA COUNTIES
SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER. ANY THUNDER CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND WEAKENING
FORCING. CONTINUE THE LOWERING TREND WITH POPS ON MONDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM FURTHER DEPARTS. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND FORCING ALONG DEPARTING BOUNDARY. DO LEAVE SOME CHANCE
POPS IN THE MORNING BUT GO MAINLY DRY IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A PORTION OF THE
EVENING ON MONDAY...DO BRING BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THEN CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. APPROACHING
SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW BACKING LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE DURING THIS NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...WAA
LOOKS TO RAMP UP WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS WAA AXIS. GUIDANCE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD...AND SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER GIVEN THIS SIGNAL AND PATTERN.
MORNING GUIDANCE COMING IN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ONE ANOTHER ON
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WHILE UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OF AT LEAST 120KT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. MID
LEVEL FLOW/ENERGY IS ALSO APPEARING RATHER ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL
FLOW OF AROUND 100KT BECOMING POSSIBLE...AND WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A STOUT VORT MAX TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GROWING MORE CONCERNED FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY AS A WARM/MOIST ENVIRONMENT ADVECTS NORTH OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO MOISTURE RETURN...MODEL CONSENSUS IS
STILL INDICATING MODEST MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
WITH SOME PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATING A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. IN THIS SCENARIO...INSTABILITY
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY INCREASING.
HOWEVER...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS SOLUTION QUITE YET AND HAVE
GONE WITH MORE OF A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH. EVEN IN THIS
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...THIS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN COULD STILL
YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY IN UPWARDS OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THIS
HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND EXPECTED STRONG KINEMATIC FIELD...EVEN
THIS POSSIBLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF THESE FEATURES COULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO GATHER ANY STRONG CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY
HOW TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD. HOWEVER...THIS PERIOD WARRANTS CLOSE
MONITORING FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
MAIN TAF CONCERNS ARE DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY RAIN/SHOWERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND EXPECTED DETERIORATION TO IFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS WEST-EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
IL LATE THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY 5 KT OR
LESS. LAKE BREEZE PUSH MAY BE FAIRLY WEAK THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...THOUGH SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD
BECOME EAST AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL IL
WAS FALLING FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUD BASES...AND IS EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE AS IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS LESS FAVORABLE FORCING ALOFT AND DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR. SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON ON...THOUGH EXPECT THAT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL MAKE
FOR MINIMAL/NO IMPACTS. HAVE INDICATED VCSH LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND AT TIMES BUT WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AFFECTING TERMINALS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DURATION. FORCING INCREASES LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
EVENTUALLY SATURATES THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH RAIN
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD 12-15Z SUNDAY MORNING. COOL EASTERLY
FLOW AND SATURATING LOW LEVELS SUGGEST DETERIORATION TO IFR...WITH
GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING CEILINGS BELOW
1000 FT BY MIDDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE MIXING
WILL BE SHALLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT WINDS 11-13 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT WITH SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING INTO EAST CENTRAL IL.
CONFIDENCE GENERALLY HIGH WITH WIND TRENDS AND SHRA SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SHRA COVERAGE
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THOUGH HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
252 PM CST
FEW CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE CENTRAL/LOWER GREAT LAKES.
MODEST EAST WINDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WAS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...AND EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE A BIT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE LAKE AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO IL/IN BY EVENING. IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME THAT THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL THEN SLACKEN AGAIN INTO MONDAY
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEAK LOW.
A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL BEING WATCHED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH FORECAST MODELS STILL DEVELOPING A DEEP
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES OR UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY AND MOVING THE LOW ACROSS THE LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WOULD STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS/GALES BY WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS STILL AMPLE SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER... MAKING CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE WIND FIELD
FAIRLY LOW.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
304 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
20z/2pm water vapor imagery shows closed upper low lifting into
southwest Arkansas, while lead short-wave trough ripples across
central Illinois. The initial wave has brought plenty of clouds,
but very little rain to the KILX CWA this afternoon. LAPS soundings
reveal the atmosphere has moistened considerably from the top-down
since the 12z upper air sounding: however, a substantial dry layer
remains in place below 800mb. As the Arkansas low gets ejected
further northeast, increasing synoptic lift will allow showers to
develop and eventually saturate the dry low-layer. This process
will likely be quite slow, as the strongest forcing will not arrive
across the area until late this evening into the overnight hours.
Have therefore decreased PoPs early on, with mainly chance during
the evening hours. As the wave approaches and the profile fully
saturates, widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will
overspread the entire area after midnight. Have gone with
categorical PoPs at that time. Low temperatures will mainly be in
the upper 40s and lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
The upper wave that was stalled out in Mexico for several days
this past week will finally approach our area in a weakening state
on Sunday with surface low pressure expected to move into central
Illinois. The best lift forecast to push right across central
Illinois during the morning into the early afternoon hours so that
is when shower and isolated thunder chances will be at their
highest. With the weak surface low expected to push across the
central portion of the forecast area, it appears their will be a
wide variation in temperatures with the cooler upper 50s thanks to
the rain and an easterly flow over our northern counties, while
south of the surface low, we will see a break or two in the rain
with temps forecast to push into the mid to upper 60s, especially
across southeast Illinois.
The weak upper and surface waves will shift off to our east during
the evening with the next 500 mb shortwave forecast to track across
the Southern Plains and affect areas over southeast Illinois with
better rain chances overnight and into Monday morning. That
shortwave will be on the move as the next upstream kicker will be
fast approaching the region late Monday/Monday night. There will be
a lull in the rain chances during the evening, except for the far
northwest with low and mid level warm advection ramping up ahead of
the deepening upper wave late Monday night into Tuesday morning with
scattered showers and isolated storms possible across mainly our
west.
A rather strong/dynamic upper wave will deepen into the upper
Midwest later Tuesday into Tuesday night with the key being the
timing of the cold front into the forecast area during the day
Tuesday. The operational GFS and NAM80 were faster than the 12z
ECMWF and Canadian models with the frontal passage Tuesday. With
the upper pattern amplifying across the central U.S., the slower
solutions may be the way to go. Certainly not lacking the deep
shear with this system with models all over the place with the
instability Tuesday afternoon thanks to the handling of the
low level moisture by each model. Forecast soundings off the NAM
for Tuesday afternoon showing surface base cape values approaching
3000 J/KG with 0-6km shear values around 50 kts. However, the
model also depicts a fairly strong capping inversion in place over
most of the forecast area except east of I-55 where the stronger
lift and low level convergence along the frontal boundary may be
sufficient enough to weaken the low level inhibition. Will
continue to carry the higher POPs across the north, but extend the
30 POPs further south, especially Tuesday afternoon. With the
deepening system at the surface and aloft, we should see an
increase in surface winds during the day Tuesday with gusts easily
over 30 mph into the afternoon hours.
Mainly shower chances Tuesday night in the wake of the frontal
boundary with a gradual cooling trend as we head through the
remainder of the week with the strong upper low expected to slowly
migrate east across the lower Great Lakes. Warmest temperatures will
be ahead of the strong cold front on Tuesday afternoon when we
should see highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s from northwest to
southeast. By Friday and Saturday, highs will cool back into the
upper 40s to lower 50s, which is back closer to where we should be
for the middle of March.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
VFR ceilings prevail at the central Illinois terminals late this
morning: however, a passing upper disturbance is steadily
moistening the airmass from the top-down. MVFR ceilings have
already developed at KDEC...with IFR noted further south across
southern Illinois into Missouri. HRRR is doing a decent job with
the latest trends and shows IFR ceilings gradually expanding N/NW
into the area this afternoon and evening. Based on HRRR forecasts,
have introduced IFR at KDEC/KSPI by 00z...then further north to
KPIA by around 04z. Not much in the way of precip is expected this
afternoon and evening due to only weak forcing, so will continue
with just VCSH. As a stronger system approaches from the south,
showers will become more widespread late tonight into Sunday
morning. Will carry predominant rain with VCTS at all TAF sites
Sunday morning accordingly.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
252 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...
231 PM CST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST IS ON PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AS RAIN EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE CWA OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. FARTHER
SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST...AND IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO
REGION OF WEAK PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE/OLD CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WHICH IS BEING KICKED OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST BY ANOTHER STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS IL/IN SUNDAY...WITH PRECIP
POTENTIAL RAMPING UP ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND INCREASES MOIST ASCENT ACROSS LOW LEVEL WARM
FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. IN FACT A WEAKER LEAD SHORT WAVE
WAS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MO/EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON IN A
REGION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
300-305 K THETA SURFACES. AMDAR AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS DEPICT
LOW LEVELS BELOW 500-600 MB ARE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
IL...AND WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN AND SATURATE MORE
FULLY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL INTO THIS EVENING. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH-NORTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES.
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE CWA GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS THE GREATEST
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
EVENING WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE.
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AGAIN GIVEN ALIGNMENT OF FORCING FEATURES
AND PWATS OF 1+ INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90 PERCENTILE BASED
ON ILX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID-MARCH. DEEP MOIST-ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES ALSO APPEAR TO YIELD SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TIER OR SO OF CWA COUNTIES
FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPS REACHED THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHGAN THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE CLIMB SOMEWHAT. CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL DEW POINT TEMPS SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 40S MOST AREAS AND AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH...AND
DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...PURE ADVECTION
OF WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMP AGAIN IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S SOUTH. INCREASING EAST WINDS (10-20 MPH) WILL COMBINE
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO KEEP THINGS COOLER NORTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WAVE AND BAROCLINIC REGION...WITH TEMPS FROM THE MID
40S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE LOWER 50S FARTHER INLAND IN LINE
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
306 AM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GUIDANCE STILL FEATURES A STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE MIDWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS A 980-982 MB LOW OVER
SOUTHER MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ONE OF THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THE LOW WILL BE STRONG WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MAX GUSTS OF
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
PRECIP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND
ECMWF HANDLE THE PATH OF THE LOW VERY DIFFERENTLY...SO KEPT POPS IN
THE LOW END LIKELY RANGE OR LOWER DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS FEATURES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN PRECIP
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOT REACHING THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEEING SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM IN THUNDER COVERAGE...BUT LOW IN EXACT TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
KEPT THE THEME OF LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TUESDAY LOOKS WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FEATURE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW AND ITS UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING
OVER THE MIDWEST WITH CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS QUICKLY
SHIFTING EAST AND MUCH LESS PRECIP. KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A PUSH OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S LATE THIS WEEK
AND LOWS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
MAIN TAF CONCERNS ARE DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY RAIN/SHOWERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND EXPECTED DETERIORATION TO IFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS WEST-EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
IL LATE THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY 5 KT OR
LESS. LAKE BREEZE PUSH MAY BE FAIRLY WEAK THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...THOUGH SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD
BECOME EAST AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL IL
WAS FALLING FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUD BASES...AND IS EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE AS IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS LESS FAVORABLE FORCING ALOFT AND DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR. SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON ON...THOUGH EXPECT THAT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL MAKE
FOR MINIMAL/NO IMPACTS. HAVE INDICATED VCSH LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND AT TIMES BUT WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AFFECTING TERMINALS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DURATION. FORCING INCREASES LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
EVENTUALLY SATURATES THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH RAIN
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD 12-15Z SUNDAY MORNING. COOL EASTERLY
FLOW AND SATURATING LOW LEVELS SUGGEST DETERIORATION TO IFR...WITH
GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING CEILINGS BELOW
1000 FT BY MIDDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE MIXING
WILL BE SHALLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT WINDS 11-13 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT WITH SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING INTO EAST CENTRAL IL.
CONFIDENCE GENERALLY HIGH WITH WIND TRENDS AND SHRA SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SHRA COVERAGE
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THOUGH HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
252 PM CST
FEW CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE CENTRAL/LOWER GREAT LAKES.
MODEST EAST WINDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WAS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...AND EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE A BIT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE LAKE AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO IL/IN BY EVENING. IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME THAT THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL THEN SLACKEN AGAIN INTO MONDAY
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEAK LOW.
A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL BEING WATCHED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH FORECAST MODELS STILL DEVELOPING A DEEP
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES OR UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY AND MOVING THE LOW ACROSS THE LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WOULD STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS/GALES BY WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS STILL AMPLE SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER... MAKING CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE WIND FIELD
FAIRLY LOW.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
232 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...
231 PM CST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST IS ON PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AS RAIN EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE CWA OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. FARTHER
SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST...AND IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO
REGION OF WEAK PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE/OLD CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WHICH IS BEING KICKED OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST BY ANOTHER STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS IL/IN SUNDAY...WITH PRECIP
POTENTIAL RAMPING UP ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND INCREASES MOIST ASCENT ACROSS LOW LEVEL WARM
FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. IN FACT A WEAKER LEAD SHORT WAVE
WAS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MO/EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON IN A
REGION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
300-305 K THETA SURFACES. AMDAR AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS DEPICT
LOW LEVELS BELOW 500-600 MB ARE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
IL...AND WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN AND SATURATE MORE
FULLY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL INTO THIS EVENING. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH-NORTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES.
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE CWA GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS THE GREATEST
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
EVENING WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE.
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AGAIN GIVEN ALIGNMENT OF FORCING FEATURES
AND PWATS OF 1+ INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90 PERCENTILE BASED
ON ILX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID-MARCH. DEEP MOIST-ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES ALSO APPEAR TO YIELD SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TIER OR SO OF CWA COUNTIES
FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPS REACHED THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHGAN THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE CLIMB SOMEWHAT. CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL DEW POINT TEMPS SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 40S MOST AREAS AND AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH...AND
DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...PURE ADVECTION
OF WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMP AGAIN IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S SOUTH. INCREASING EAST WINDS (10-20 MPH) WILL COMBINE
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO KEEP THINGS COOLER NORTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WAVE AND BAROCLINIC REGION...WITH TEMPS FROM THE MID
40S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE LOWER 50S FARTHER INLAND IN LINE
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
306 AM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GUIDANCE STILL FEATURES A STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE MIDWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS A 980-982 MB LOW OVER
SOUTHER MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ONE OF THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THE LOW WILL BE STRONG WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MAX GUSTS OF
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
PRECIP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND
ECMWF HANDLE THE PATH OF THE LOW VERY DIFFERENTLY...SO KEPT POPS IN
THE LOW END LIKELY RANGE OR LOWER DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS FEATURES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN PRECIP
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOT REACHING THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEEING SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM IN THUNDER COVERAGE...BUT LOW IN EXACT TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
KEPT THE THEME OF LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TUESDAY LOOKS WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FEATURE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW AND ITS UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING
OVER THE MIDWEST WITH CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS QUICKLY
SHIFTING EAST AND MUCH LESS PRECIP. KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A PUSH OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S LATE THIS WEEK
AND LOWS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
MAIN TAF CONCERNS ARE DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY RAIN/SHOWERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND EXPECTED DETERIORATION TO IFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS WEST-EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
IL LATE THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY 5 KT OR
LESS. LAKE BREEZE PUSH MAY BE FAIRLY WEAK THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...THOUGH SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD
BECOME EAST AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL IL
WAS FALLING FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUD BASES...AND IS EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE AS IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS LESS FAVORABLE FORCING ALOFT AND DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR. SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON ON...THOUGH EXPECT THAT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL MAKE
FOR MINIMAL/NO IMPACTS. HAVE INDICATED VCSH LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND AT TIMES BUT WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AFFECTING TERMINALS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DURATION. FORCING INCREASES LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
EVENTUALLY SATURATES THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH RAIN
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD 12-15Z SUNDAY MORNING. COOL EASTERLY
FLOW AND SATURATING LOW LEVELS SUGGEST DETERIORATION TO IFR...WITH
GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING CEILINGS BELOW
1000 FT BY MIDDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE MIXING
WILL BE SHALLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT WINDS 11-13 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT WITH SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING INTO EAST CENTRAL IL.
CONFIDENCE GENERALLY HIGH WITH WIND TRENDS AND SHRA SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SHRA COVERAGE
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THOUGH HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
148 AM CST
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL INFLUENCE THE LAKE TODAY DESPITE BEING
CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST. WITH THE LIGHTER AMBIENT FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE...AN ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. IT IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF THIS
LOW...NEAR 29.6 INCHES OR SO...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE LAKE OR JUST SOUTH OF IT. THE OVERALL PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
THEN BRIEFLY BECOME BAGGY THE REST OF MONDAY ALLOWING ONLY A WEAK
PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A PRESSURE LESS THAN
29.2 INCHES HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR GALES FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD IF NOT A LONGER DURATION
AS COOLER AIR WRAPS IN AROUND THIS LOW. THE CIPS
ANALOGS...BASICALLY A REFLECTION OF WHAT HAS OCCURRED IN SIMILAR
SITUATIONS TO THAT FORECAST BY ONE OF THE NWS COMPUTER
MODELS...INDICATES 50 TO 70 PERCENT OF THE TOP MATCHES HAD GALES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THIS PRESENTLY LOOKS MOST
FAVORED ON WEDNESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
POINT.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
Cut-off upper low that has been nearly stationary over southern
Texas over the past couple of days is finally getting pushed
northward today by another system moving across the Desert
Southwest. Latest water vapor imagery shows the low over northeast
Texas, with a weak lead short-wave further north near Saint Louis.
This initial wave is producing enough synoptic lift to trigger a
few showers across the area, although precip is struggling to
develop and reach the ground due to a very dry airmass below
700mb. Showers have been more widespread further west from western
Illinois across northern Missouri, but these are lifting northward
and will remain largely west of the KILX CWA. Meanwhile, very
little precip is occurring upstream across western Kentucky and
southern Illinois. Based on dry 12z KILX upper air sounding and
latest radar trends, have cut PoPs significantly for today. Will
only mention isolated showers across most of the area, with
scattered wording along/west of the Illinois River. Due to the
extensive cloud cover and continued E/NE low-level flow, think
previous forecast highs are too warm. Have therefore lowered them
into the upper 50s to around 60. Forecast update has already been
issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
A closed upper low over Texas early this morning is about to start
moving rapidly northeastward toward the Midwest today as a strong
progressive trough pushes rapidly eastward through the southwest
U.S. to kick the TX low northeastward. Broken bands of showers
continue to approach central/SE Illinois from the south according to
regional radar with a few spotty reports of light rain reaching the
ground. Models and radar trends indicate the most widespread rain
over western Missouri and headed northward to largely miss central
Illinois today...while lighter and more scattered precip looks to
reach central IL. Have therefore kept precip chances 50 percent or
less through most of the area with only light amounts under 0.10"
expected. Isolated thunderstorms could become possible south of I-72
during the late afternoon, but instability looks to remain fairly
weak. Temperatures expected to reach the low 60s with light east
winds around 5 to 8 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
Have increasing chances of showers spreading nne across central IL
during tonight into Sunday as upper level low over central Texas
moves into the mid MS river valley. Meanwhile another upper level
low over southern CA to track into southern IL by 12Z Monday and
keep good chances of showers going into Monday. Have isolated
thunderstorms over southeast half of CWA tonight and across central
and southeast IL Sunday. Thunderstorms chances then retreat back
into southeast IL Sunday night and near the Wabash river valley on
Monday. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1 inch through Monday across
area. Highs Sunday range from around 60F northern CWA to upper 60s
in southeast IL. Highs Monday mostly in the mid to upper 60s with
Jacksonville and sw near 70F.
00Z models continue to differ with evolution of strong storm system
affecting the Midwest Tuesday. A strong cutoff 500 mb low to track
across MN/IA and upper MS river valley Tue afternoon and Tue evening.
A strong cold front to sweep eastward across IL Tue afternoon or Tue
evening depening on which model you follow. Leaned on ensemble
solution due to these differences and maintained higher chances of
showers and thunderstorms on Tue with likely pops north of Peoria
while convection from I-74 south. SPC does not have any risk areas
yet over IL on Tue/Tue night but with strong wind shear and some
instability, the timing of the front and amount of warming/moisture
return will determine the risk Tue afternoon/early Tue evening.
Breezy south winds and mild highs mostly in the lower 70s Tue with
some upper 60s from Peoria north. Even stronger WSW winds on Wed as
strong upper level low moves over Lake MI and into western lower MI
on Wed. This brings in cooler air with highs in the upper 50s/lower
60s with isolated showers possible especially north of I-70.
Upper level low slowly moves east across the central Great Lakes Thu
and eastern Great Lakes Friday and continues to cool temps into the
50s Thu and low to mid 50s Friday while lows get into the 30s by
work weeks end. Another upper level trof appears to move into the
Midwest by next weekend returning chances of showers Friday
night/Sat.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
VFR ceilings prevail at the central Illinois terminals late this
morning: however, a passing upper disturbance is steadily
moistening the airmass from the top-down. MVFR ceilings have
already developed at KDEC...with IFR noted further south across
southern Illinois into Missouri. HRRR is doing a decent job with
the latest trends and shows IFR ceilings gradually expanding N/NW
into the area this afternoon and evening. Based on HRRR forecasts,
have introduced IFR at KDEC/KSPI by 00z...then further north to
KPIA by around 04z. Not much in the way of precip is expected this
afternoon and evening due to only weak forcing, so will continue
with just VCSH. As a stronger system approaches from the south,
showers will become more widespread late tonight into Sunday
morning. Will carry predominant rain with VCTS at all TAF sites
Sunday morning accordingly.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
204 AM MST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS OUR CWA BETWEEN
THESE FEATURE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY LAYER. AT THE SURFACE
STRONG LEE TROUGH IN COLORADO HAS LED TO TIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
AND GUSTY WINDS (25-30KT) ACROSS OUR CWA.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WINDS MAY
REMAIN 10-15KT IN THE WEST AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTHWARD MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BAND OF O
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC AXIS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND ROTATING TOWARDS OUR CWA. CURRENT TREND FROM GFS/ECMWF
NOW MATCHES UP WITH NAM/ARW/NMM WITH THIS REMAINING FURTHER EAST AND
RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT OUR CWA MAY BE MISSED COMPLETELY (HILL
CITY/NORTON STILL SEEING A BETTER CHANCE). WHILE STILL SHOWING THE
POSSIBLY FOR INCREASING STRATUS IN OUR FAR EAST...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED MUCH DRIER IN THE BL CONDITIONS.
I REMOVED DRIZZLE MENTION IN THE MORNING AND I TRENDED POPS BACK TO
20 PERCENT...THOUGH IT KEPT SIMILAR TIMING/POSITION TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUITY JUST IN CASE. THIS ALSO RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES
COULD CLEAR RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES (70S)...AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS. CONSERVATIVE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN THIS
DIRECTION...AND IF THIS IS HOW IT PLAYS OUT THE DAYTIME PERIOD COULD
END UP BEING MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MST SAT MAR 12 2016
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE WEAKENED THE SYSTEM EXITING THE
REGION TUESDAY...MAINLY NOW AS AN OPEN WAVE WORKING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS STILL POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...THE GENERAL TREND RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS FOR
CLEARING/DRYING CONDITIONS TO ENSUE UNDER PERSISTENT NW FLOW.
GOING INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OFF THE ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROMISE TO GIVE THE AREA BEST
CHANCES FOR MOISTURE IN THE EXTENDED. GFS/ECMWF DO DIFFER ON STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH GFS CARRYING SYSTEM THRU AS AN OPEN
TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A CLOSED OFF SYSTEM. MOISTURE INFLOW TO
THE CWA WHICH EACH OF THESE DOES DIFFER AS A RESULT...AND WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
PRECIP/MOVEMENT...AND THE ECMWF ALLOWS MUCH MORE PRECIP POTENTIAL
BEING A CLOSED OFF SYSTEM. AREAL COVERAGE OF BOTH HITS MUCH/ALL OF
THE CWA ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
WITH THESE DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF
SYSTEM...WILL ONLY KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST AT THIS TIME WITH
FOCUS OVER S/SW ZONES BASED ON SYSTEM TRACK. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...AND WITH COLDER AIR WORKING INTO
AREA...CAN NOT RULE OUT -SW AT NIGHT EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUM WEST. TREND AFTER PASSAGE ON FRIDAY IS FOR GENERAL
CLEARING WITH SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LINGERING MOISTURE ON WRAP-AROUND FLOW WITH THIS LOW AS IT EXITS
COULD BRING PRECIP TO EASTERN ZONES...BUT CURRENT TREND IS FOR
CLEARING SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION.
THE TREND IS DOWNWARD FOR TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. COLDER AIR BROUGHT
SOUTH BY THE NNW FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL DROP THE AREA TO
NORMAL...OR BELOW NORMAL NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
TUESDAY...THEN DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 50S WED/THURS...THEN 40S BY
FRI/SAT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S WITH SOME LOW 30S
IN EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MIXING AND BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1015 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS OUR CWA BETWEEN
THESE FEATURE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY LAYER. AT THE SURFACE
STRONG LEE TROUGH IN COLORADO HAS LED TO TIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
AND GUSTY WINDS (25-30KT) ACROSS OUR CWA.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WINDS MAY
REMAIN 10-15KT IN THE WEST AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTHWARD MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BAND OF O
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC AXIS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND ROTATING TOWARDS OUR CWA. CURRENT TREND FROM GFS/ECMWF
NOW MATCHES UP WITH NAM/ARW/NMM WITH THIS REMAINING FURTHER EAST AND
RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT OUR CWA MAY BE MISSED COMPLETELY (HILL
CITY/NORTON STILL SEEING A BETTER CHANCE). WHILE STILL SHOWING THE
POSSIBLY FOR INCREASING STRATUS IN OUR FAR EAST...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED MUCH DRIER IN THE BL CONDITIONS.
I REMOVED DRIZZLE MENTION IN THE MORNING AND I TRENDED POPS BACK TO
20 PERCENT...THOUGH IT KEPT SIMILAR TIMING/POSITION TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUITY JUST IN CASE. THIS ALSO RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES
COULD CLEAR RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES (70S)...AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS. CONSERVATIVE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN THIS
DIRECTION...AND IF THIS IS HOW IT PLAYS OUT THE DAYTIME PERIOD COULD
END UP BEING MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES FOR RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A BAND OF SATURATED AIR MOVES WESTWARD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MAIN LIFT WITH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
BE ABOVE IT IN THE DRIER AIR. AM THINKING THIS...ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA. MODELS
DISAGREE WITH HOW FAR WEST THE RAINFALL WILL EXTEND...SO WENT WITH
THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT. IF RAIN DOES DEVELOP...EXPECT THERE TO ONLY
BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
OVERNIGHT THE SATURATED LAYER WILL DEEPEN TO THE SURFACE...CAUSING
FOG TO FORM. EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN ALONG/EAST OF THE DRY LINE
THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE KS/CO BORDER...WITH THE DENSEST FOG OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY MORNING THE FOG WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. THIS WILL LEAD
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO DECLINE BY MID AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH.
MONDAY HIGHS WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WHICH MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL GIVEN THE FORECAST WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LATE MONDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME ISOLATED RAINFALL MAY MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE CENTER ELONGATING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...GIVING THE AREA ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE SNOW IF
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXTEND INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVES
OVER THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE FROM THE NORTH AFTER
MONDAY...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MIXING AND BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...TDS FINALLY MIXED THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO DECREASE RH VALUES TO THE
15-20% RANGE. IT DOESNT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE RH AT 15% FOR THE
3HR NECESSARY FOR A RFW OR FOR A LARGE AREA OF ANY INDIVIDUAL
COUNTY. ON SATURDAY...I HAVE CONCERNS THAT IF CLEARING TAKES
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 AS ADVERTISED BY LATEST HI RES MODELS
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SIMILAR SITUATION AS TODAY (NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER). I WILL KEEP MENTION LIMITED TO HWO FOR THESE
PERIODS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25 WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL ANY FURTHER. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO DECLINE BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
NOT ALLOW FOR A MORE THAN A COUPLE HOUR DURATION OF NEAR CRITERIA
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE THE WINDS FALL BELOW CRITERIA.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND FOR THE WEST HALF WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY
THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR/JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1100 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE SKY COVER...POPS...AND WX
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR INDICATES THAT
SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GRIDS. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS WITH THE SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT
STILL ON TRACK. HAVE SENT THESE UPDATES TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVER
ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES AND HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY
WITH A WARM FRONT NOW BACK NORTH OF THE STATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CROSSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT AND A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING SUNSET AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO DEVELOP.
CURRENTLY READINGS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POPS AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS TO
PUT IN THE SMALL TEMP SPLIT TONIGHT. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD
GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
THIS AFTERNOON WE CONTINUE TO TRACK SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS. THAT SAID MRMS DATA DOES HAVE SOME DBZ IN THE
MINUS 20 RANGE...AND THE PROB LIGHTNING PRODUCT HAS HAD SOME
HINTS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS BETTER COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MIDDLE TN
AND CENTRAL/WEST KY AT 3 PM AND WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS LOOK TO DIE OUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
EVENING BASED ON MOST OF THE CAM DATA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THAT OVERALL BETTER LIFT WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KY
CLOSER TO THE BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVE
WAVE MOVES NORTH...HOWEVER ALL EYES TURN TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LULL SHOULD OCCUR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE NEXT WEATHER MAKER MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THAT SAID MONDAY COULD BE INTERESTING GIVEN THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE DAY BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH IT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES IN THE 6 TO 6.5
C/KM RANGE...WHILE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE IN THE 8 C/KM PLUS RANGE.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT SHEAR AND A LOW FREEZING LEVEL OF 8
K/FT TO BRING AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SETUP THE RISK FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL BASED ON THE CAM
DATA WOULD SUGGEST BEST TIMING FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND
18Z...WHICH WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE BETTER HEATING. THIS WILL
QUICKLY DIE OFF LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE
HEATING AND BETTER DYNAMICS.
OVERALL WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER TO THAT OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE WRAPPED UP TUESDAY MORNING AS FLAT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WORKS IN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING. THIS WILL SPIKE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S BEFORE
A GRADUAL COOLDOWN ENSUES FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
COMMENCEMENT OF THIS WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF
A STACKED LOW STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. LEAD IMPULSE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE
BLUEGRASS REGION. NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERLY
EXTENT OF THE LIFT AS WELL AS A SHORT TIME TABLE FOR MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE EASTERN REACHES OF THE COMMONWEALTH. FOLLOWING LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY/S SYSTEM...BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO ABOVE MENTIONED APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL PRECLUDE
MUCH IF ANY TIME FOR ADEQUATE GULF MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. NONETHELESS...40-50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
WEDNESDAY INTO THE 50S/LOWER 60S BY THE WEEKEND AS REINFORCEMENTS OF
CYCLONIC FLOW PROPAGATE SOUTH AND EAST...STEMMING FROM THE LINGERING
MIDWEEK SYSTEM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE OFFING GIVEN THIS FORCING UPSTREAM. RAIN WILL BY NO MEANS BE
CONTINUOUS AS CLEARING SKIES WILL PERIODICALLY TAKE PLACE IN BETWEEN
ROUNDS OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. STILL SEVERAL DETAILS
TO BE IRONED OUT REGARDING EXACTLY HOW THIS DISTURBANCE PLAYS
OUT...BUT A COLD FRONT DOES CURRENTLY LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER STRONGER ONE LATER
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
A MIX BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE VARYING CIG AND VIS HAS BEEN DUE PRIMARILY TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN TERMS OF TAFS
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD. MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE
WILL SEE DIMINISHMENT IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE MVFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL LIKELY STAY VFR.
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE ADDED A PREVAILING FOR THESE STORMS AROUND MIDDAY...
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...
HOWEVER BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER
OR STORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...DJ/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY
WITH A WARM FRONT NOW BACK NORTH OF THE STATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CROSSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT AND A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING SUNSET AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO DEVELOP.
CURRENTLY READINGS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POPS AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS TO
PUT IN THE SMALL TEMP SPLIT TONIGHT. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD
GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
THIS AFTERNOON WE CONTINUE TO TRACK SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS. THAT SAID MRMS DATA DOES HAVE SOME DBZ IN THE
MINUS 20 RANGE...AND THE PROB LIGHTNING PRODUCT HAS HAD SOME
HINTS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS BETTER COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MIDDLE TN
AND CENTRAL/WEST KY AT 3 PM AND WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS LOOK TO DIE OUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
EVENING BASED ON MOST OF THE CAM DATA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THAT OVERALL BETTER LIFT WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KY
CLOSER TO THE BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVE
WAVE MOVES NORTH...HOWEVER ALL EYES TURN TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LULL SHOULD OCCUR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE NEXT WEATHER MAKER MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THAT SAID MONDAY COULD BE INTERESTING GIVEN THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE DAY BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH IT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES IN THE 6 TO 6.5
C/KM RANGE...WHILE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE IN THE 8 C/KM PLUS RANGE.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT SHEAR AND A LOW FREEZING LEVEL OF 8
K/FT TO BRING AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SETUP THE RISK FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL BASED ON THE CAM
DATA WOULD SUGGEST BEST TIMING FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND
18Z...WHICH WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE BETTER HEATING. THIS WILL
QUICKLY DIE OFF LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE
HEATING AND BETTER DYNAMICS.
OVERALL WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER TO THAT OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE WRAPPED UP TUESDAY MORNING AS FLAT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WORKS IN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING. THIS WILL SPIKE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S BEFORE
A GRADUAL COOLDOWN ENSUES FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
COMMENCEMENT OF THIS WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF
A STACKED LOW STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. LEAD IMPULSE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE
BLUEGRASS REGION. NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERLY
EXTENT OF THE LIFT AS WELL AS A SHORT TIME TABLE FOR MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE EASTERN REACHES OF THE COMMONWEALTH. FOLLOWING LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY/S SYSTEM...BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO ABOVE MENTIONED APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL PRECLUDE
MUCH IF ANY TIME FOR ADEQUATE GULF MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. NONETHELESS...40-50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
WEDNESDAY INTO THE 50S/LOWER 60S BY THE WEEKEND AS REINFORCEMENTS OF
CYCLONIC FLOW PROPAGATE SOUTH AND EAST...STEMMING FROM THE LINGERING
MIDWEEK SYSTEM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE OFFING GIVEN THIS FORCING UPSTREAM. RAIN WILL BY NO MEANS BE
CONTINUOUS AS CLEARING SKIES WILL PERIODICALLY TAKE PLACE IN BETWEEN
ROUNDS OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. STILL SEVERAL DETAILS
TO BE IRONED OUT REGARDING EXACTLY HOW THIS DISTURBANCE PLAYS
OUT...BUT A COLD FRONT DOES CURRENTLY LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER STRONGER ONE LATER
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
A MIX BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE VARYING CIG AND VIS HAS BEEN DUE PRIMARILY TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN TERMS OF TAFS
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD. MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE
WILL SEE DIMINISHMENT IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE MVFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL LIKELY STAY VFR.
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE ADDED A PREVAILING FOR THESE STORMS AROUND MIDDAY...
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...
HOWEVER BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER
OR STORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...DJ/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
708 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.AVIATION...
STEADY RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. AS MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT PROGRESSES INTO AREA OVERNIGHT...SHRAS WILL TREND TO
MORE OF A -DZ/BR/FG SCENARIO WITH LIFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE
COMMON. SSW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR CIGS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A
SLOW PROCESS AS A SECONDARY LOW TRACKING TOWARDS AREA WILL DELAY ANY
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO AREA FROM THE WEST.
FOR DTW...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SOLIDLY IFR WITH
OCCASIONAL LIFR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. LOWEST CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL COME IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE TERMINAL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE ON BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS SSW FLOW DEVELOPS...BUT STILL EXPECT BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE DAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT.
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AOB 200 FEET AND/OR VSBYS AOB 1/2SM
06Z TO 12Z TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
DISCUSSION...
WHAT IS NOW THE PRIMARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT EMERGED OUT OF THE
EARLY WEEK TX/MEXICO UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM IS NOW LIFTING DUE
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF IL/IN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK DIRECTLY THROUGH WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING. WITH TIME...THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND THE RESULTANT
CHANGE IN KINEMATICS/WIND DIRECTION WILL FORCE A CHANGE IN THE
ADVECTIONS AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZE THE 850-700MB FGEN AXIS THAT HAD
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET DAY...TO THE NORTH OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME TO HAPPEN HOWEVER...AS THE
OVERALL EVENT IS A SLOW EVOLVING ONE. A SHARP NORTHERN CUTOFF TO THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY THE CENTER OF
THE PRECIPITATION AXIS TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AT 00Z...OVER THE
NORTHERN THUMB AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON AT 06Z...WITH THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE BAND EXITING THE CWA AT/AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING. RH
PROGS...SATELLITE TRENDS...UPSTREAM CEILIOMETER OBS...SUPPORT SOME
COMPONENT OF MIDLEVEL DRY AIR OR A MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT OF SORTS TO
BEGIN LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS
WOULD END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER...HOW
MUCH MIDLEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IS UP FOR DEBATE. PREFER A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION WHERE PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE STRIPPED OUT WITH
A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH TIME...HOWEVER...
FOR THOSE THAT REMAIN WITHIN THE HEART OF THE FGEN AXIS RATES WILL
BE SLOW TO WANE. IN THE EARLIER UPDATE...DISCUSSED HOW TOTAL
PRECIPITATION RAINFALL ESTIMATE WAS PROBABLY OVERDOING AMOUNTS.
WHILE TRUE ON THE FRONT END OF THE ENVIRONMENT WHERE DRY AIR WAS
FIGHTING OF PRECIPITATION...IT APPEARS THAT RATES ARE CERTAINLY
DOING WELL WITH COLUMN SATURATION. MANY AREAS IN THE DETROIT METRO
HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FOOTPRINT OF .25 TO .40 OF AN INCH. GIVEN THE
TIME YET TO GO AND THE BULLISH RAP QPF FIELD...TOTAL QPF IN EXCESS OF
50 INCH...TO .75 INCH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
SOME VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING NAM AND HRRR ARE TRYING TO
PRESERVE SOME SPURIOUS AND ANOMALOUS QPF MAXIMUM ALONG THE LEADING
CVA OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THIS MODELED CONVECTION HAS BEEN
FORECASTED TO LIFT DIRECTLY NORTH OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
MBS...CONTAMINATING THE QPF FIELD. IT SEEMS THE CENTRAL INDIANA
CLUSTER WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SURVIVING WITH THE GENERAL LACK
OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECTING A
TRANSITION FROM LAMINAR STRATIFORM RAIN TO MORE RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING.
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO EXIST. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE STRENGTH OF
THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL EVOLVE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME DATA SETS
SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 6 TO 7 KNOTS OF SUSTAINED WIND HOLDING ON.
MODELED CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT FIELD POINT TO THIS DIRECTION
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONSENSUS OR CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO HEIGHTEN ANY
MESSAGE. FEELING IS IT COULD BE AS LATE AS 10Z BEFORE FOG
DEVELOPS...AND POSSIBLY TAKE UNTIL VERY LATE MORNING TO LIFT.
A WEAKNESS OR BUCKLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD DIRECTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND TROUGHINESS OVER THE STATE ON MONDAY. THE WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDING THROUGH THE CWA SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL AIRMASS. RH PROGS SHOW SOLID SATURATION HOLDING AT 700MB AND
THIS RAISES QUESTION AS TO THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON THE SHOULDERS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF A MORE
FOCUSED SURFACE REFLECTION/SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EFFECTS INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY...SLIGHTLY LESS
OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
50S TO 60 DEGREES FAR SOUTH. THE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD/FOG IN THE MORNING. IT COULD TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM APPRECIABLY.
THE MONDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD SEEMS IT WILL BE GOVERNED BY A COMPLEX
INTERACTION THAT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW
LIFTING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE MORE VIGOROUS LOW AFFECTION
PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS. THE NORTHERN SPIRAL EDGE TO THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO UNRAVEL AND BE CAUGHT WITHIN A TRAILING
DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS PRECEDING WAVE. ESSENTIALLY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL THEN ZIPPER ALONG THIS DEFORMATION AXIS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. BASED ON EARLIER DATA...SHADED DRY FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT MAY HAVE BEEN AN OVERCORRECTION AS SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST BEYOND 00Z TUESDAY.
THE COMPLEXITIES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY DYNAMIC SETUP. THE PROBLEM IS
THERE IS A MYRIAD OF PV INTERACTIONS YET TO OCCUR THAT WILL HAVE
A SAY IN THE FINAL OUTCOME. THE TREND FOR THE 13.12Z SUITE WAS TO
PUSH TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ON THE THETA E RIDGE
INTO THE 06-12Z WEDNESDAY WINDOW...WHILE WAITING ON THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. LATEST SWODY3 HAS A MARGINAL
DESIGNATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA CONDITIONAL ON
UPSTREAM...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. IT REMAINS A FLUID SITUATION BASED ON
DEPENDENCE OF TIMING AND ABILITY TO BECOME WELL MIXED AT THE
SURFACE...BUT THE POTENTIAL APPEARS GOOD FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TRANSPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
THAT THERMODYNAMICS AND VERY DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO
POSSIBLE WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER 50`S. A COOLING TREND
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
FRESH EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. WINDS WILL THEN WEAK DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY HAS A
WEAK AND VERY BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL RESPOND
TEMPORARILY OUT OF THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW
EXITING THE AREA...BEFORE QUICKLY ORGANIZING EASTERLY AGAIN AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO BE MUCH MORE DYNAMIC. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
YET...BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME VERY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF WEDNESDAY. POSTFRONTAL WESTERLY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY EXCEED 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ST CLAIR AND THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...CB/DE
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1144 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
INCREASED WINDS A BIT MORE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON
EARLY OBSERVATION TRENDS AND CONTINUED SOUNDING SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL ITERATIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK. DID UP WINDS A BIT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST RAP AND HRRR
SOUNDINGS MIXING DOWN SOME HIGHER VELOCITIES. OTHERWISE...JUST
BLENDED THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH EXCEPT TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
12Z BISMARCK SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR AVAILABLE ALOFT IF
WE ARE ABLE TO MIX DEEPLY ENOUGH TODAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
BREEZY AND WARM TODAY...WITH SOME HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
UPSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST INTO
THE ROCKIES. THERE WERE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES...ONE OVER ALBERTA AND THE OTHER OVER WYOMING. A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE WYOMING LOW EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATED DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS
WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
MIXING ALOFT WITH WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL BRING ANOTHER MILD AND
BREEZY DAY TO NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH.
TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXPANDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A FAST H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. IN THE WEST...IT SHOULD
AGAIN BE MAINLY DRY.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO STILL BE IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS VARYING QUITE A BIT IN THEIR HANDLING OF
SPECIFIC FEATURES...AND THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE GEFS WITH
LARGE SPREADS BEING SHOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL NOT
STRAY MUCH FROM THE MODEL BLENDS WHICH REFLECT THE MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM MONTANA.
EXPECT GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
KDIK/KBIS/KMOT...GRADUALLY CALMING BY THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY WEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJMS...WHERE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
TODAY:
AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (AROUND H850)...A DRY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
BASIN/4-CORNERS WHILE A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF COAST. THE DRIER AIR
IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHILE THE
MOIST FLOW MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25 TO 40 KNOT RANGE TODAY.
TODAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ACT TO ADVECT THE SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND AS TEMPERATURES RISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THE SURFACE WILL MIX WITH UP TO THE H850 LEVEL. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND...IN TURN...LOWERING THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. THUS EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND
20 PERCENT IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THE MID LEVELS ARE
DRIEST...AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND 40 PERCENT
IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE MIXING WITH MID LEVELS
SHOULD BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 30 MPH.
THIS WILL MEAN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE COMBINATION OF
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
20 PERCENT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...THUS WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING.
SUNDAY:
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL TO AS LOW AS 20
PERCENT IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...FORECAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...BUT ITS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...ZH
FIRE WEATHER...JV/CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
932 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK. DID UP WINDS A BIT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST RAP AND HRRR
SOUNDINGS MIXING DOWN SOME HIGHER VELOCITIES. OTHERWISE...JUST
BLENDED THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH EXCEPT TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
12Z BISMARCK SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR AVAILABLE ALOFT IF
WE ARE ABLE TO MIX DEEPLY ENOUGH TODAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
BREEZY AND WARM TODAY...WITH SOME HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
UPSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST INTO
THE ROCKIES. THERE WERE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES...ONE OVER ALBERTA AND THE OTHER OVER WYOMING. A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE WYOMING LOW EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATED DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS
WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
MIXING ALOFT WITH WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL BRING ANOTHER MILD AND
BREEZY DAY TO NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH.
TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXPANDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A FAST H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. IN THE WEST...IT SHOULD
AGAIN BE MAINLY DRY.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO STILL BE IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS VARYING QUITE A BIT IN THEIR HANDLING OF
SPECIFIC FEATURES...AND THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE GEFS WITH
LARGE SPREADS BEING SHOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL NOT
STRAY MUCH FROM THE MODEL BLENDS WHICH REFLECT THE MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FOR THE 12 UTC TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE...THERE SHOULD BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS
FROM AROUND 12Z-16Z. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP AT KBIS AND KJMS AROUND 06Z WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 2000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
TODAY:
AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (AROUND H850)...A DRY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
BASIN/4-CORNERS WHILE A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF COAST. THE DRIER AIR
IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHILE THE
MOIST FLOW MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25 TO 40 KNOT RANGE TODAY.
TODAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ACT TO ADVECT THE SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND AS TEMPERATURES RISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THE SURFACE WILL MIX WITH UP TO THE H850 LEVEL. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND...IN TURN...LOWERING THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. THUS EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND
20 PERCENT IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THE MID LEVELS ARE
DRIEST...AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND 40 PERCENT
IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE MIXING WITH MID LEVELS
SHOULD BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 30 MPH.
THIS WILL MEAN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE COMBINATION OF
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
20 PERCENT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...THUS WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING.
SUNDAY:
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL TO AS LOW AS 20
PERCENT IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...FORECAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...BUT ITS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...JV/CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1237 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE STARTING OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WAVES OF CIRRUS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND THICKENING IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. DESPITE SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT N TO NE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. BACKED
OFF ON HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES
COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NEAR
LAKE ERIE TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHOW SOME LIGHT RAIN GETTING BACK INTO THE S AND
SW PART OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY SO WILL INCREASE POP ENOUGH
THERE FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC TO GET SOMETHING MENTIONED IN THE
TEXT PRODUCTS.
PATCHY DENSE FOG AT THE ERI LAKESHORE SHOULD IMPROVE BY MIDDAY AS
AIRMASS STARTS TO MIX MORE AND TEMPS WARM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER TEXAS WILL OPEN AND
MOVE NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER WET PERIOD IN STORE DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN TONIGHT UNTIL LATE BUT
EXPECT RAIN TO BE AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS ROUTE 30 BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND POSSIBLY EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS CLEVELAND AND TOLEDO. THE
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW SPREAD NORTH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN
PLACE TO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH
ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS I-90 ON SUNDAY AND HELD ONTO A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE ERIE AGAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. ELSEWHERE
BACKED OFF TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS BY A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTING .75
TO 1.25 INCH OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. SOIL REMAINS PRETTY WET BUT EXPECT TO SEE
JUST A FEW RIVERS APPROACH MINOR FLOODING LEVELS. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT UNLESS WE END UP WITH MORE
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOLIDLY BE IN THE 60S MOST AREAS
ON MONDAY.
ONE LAST SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. A
STRONG UPPER JET RACES ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE LOW DEEPENING
AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS
REMAINS FASTER AND STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM. CONTINUE TO BE
SKEPTICAL OF THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION BUT ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TOWARDS THE SLOWER
TIMING WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE MAY
BE SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. WHILE
AN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER CANT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT
DOES APPEAR THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY. THIS LULL IN THE
SHOWERS IS MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND HAVE
LEANED THIS WAY FOR THE FORECAST. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ARRIVE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE STRUGGLING TO RELEASE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE WARMEST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS NEAR OR ABOVE 60. IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED
UP. COOLER BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND WILL SEE CIGS
LOWER AND THICKEN THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SHOULD REACH
KCLE AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. EXPECT KERI TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH 18Z.
THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST BUT EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO DIP
TO MVFR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE RAIN STARTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
WILL BECOME E TO NE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 KNOTS MOST
AREAS TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY IN RAIN WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD FROM LAKE ERIE TODAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS WILL
PROVIDE EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
WHILE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
914 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE STARTING OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WAVES OF CIRRUS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND THICKENING IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. DESPITE SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT N TO NE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. BACKED
OFF ON HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES
COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NEAR
LAKE ERIE TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHOW SOME LIGHT RAIN GETTING BACK INTO THE S AND
SW PART OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY SO WILL INCREASE POP ENOUGH
THERE FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC TO GET SOMETHING MENTIONED IN THE
TEXT PRODUCTS.
PATCHY DENSE FOG AT THE ERI LAKESHORE SHOULD IMPROVE BY MIDDAY AS
AIRMASS STARTS TO MIX MORE AND TEMPS WARM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER TEXAS WILL OPEN AND
MOVE NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER WET PERIOD IN STORE DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN TONIGHT UNTIL LATE BUT
EXPECT RAIN TO BE AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS ROUTE 30 BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND POSSIBLY EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS CLEVELAND AND TOLEDO. THE
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW SPREAD NORTH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN
PLACE TO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH
ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS I-90 ON SUNDAY AND HELD ONTO A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE ERIE AGAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. ELSEWHERE
BACKED OFF TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS BY A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTING .75
TO 1.25 INCH OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. SOIL REMAINS PRETTY WET BUT EXPECT TO SEE
JUST A FEW RIVERS APPROACH MINOR FLOODING LEVELS. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT UNLESS WE END UP WITH MORE
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOLIDLY BE IN THE 60S MOST AREAS
ON MONDAY.
ONE LAST SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. A
STRONG UPPER JET RACES ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE LOW DEEPENING
AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS
REMAINS FASTER AND STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM. CONTINUE TO BE
SKEPTICAL OF THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION BUT ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TOWARDS THE SLOWER
TIMING WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE MAY
BE SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. WHILE
AN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER CANT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT
DOES APPEAR THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY. THIS LULL IN THE
SHOWERS IS MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND HAVE
LEANED THIS WAY FOR THE FORECAST. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ARRIVE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE STRUGGLING TO RELEASE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE WARMEST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS NEAR OR ABOVE 60. IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED
UP. COOLER BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z. WORST OF THE FOG WILL
BE NEAR KERI UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTER 14Z ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR WITH INCREASING MIDDLE AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO THE EVENING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AFTER SUNSET WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION
CEILINGS WILL LOWER FURTHER AS SOME LIGHT RAIN BEGINS. THIS WILL
ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FORM SOUTH TO NORTH. ONLY THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES COULD SEE RAIN THROUGH 12Z.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY IN RAIN WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD FROM LAKE ERIE TODAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS WILL
PROVIDE EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
WHILE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
527 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...PAVING THE
WAY FOR A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
STRETCH UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING LATER TODAY AND LASTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VWP AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY
TURNED SOUTHERLY AND IS SURPRISINGLY ROBUST WITH THE CCX VWP
SHOWING THE WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 35KT JUST OFF THE DECK.
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO RETREAT OFFSHORE...WE WILL SEE THE CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO THICKEN TODAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLY REACHING MY FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. THIS LEADING IMPULSE IS WEAK AND
WEAKENING AND THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE BOTH IN HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN MANAGES TO MOVE AS WELL
AS HOW LONG IT STICKS AROUND OVERNIGHT. THE SREF AND ECMWF HINT
AT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LIGHT PRECIP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING WHILE
THE GFS/GEFS PAIRING ARE MORE PERSISTENT HINTING AT OCCASIONAL
RAIN. AT ANY RATE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL STILL BE MILDER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE LINE ALOFT IS FINALLY FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH PAVING
THE WAY FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE DEEPER INROADS INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...2-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL...WILL ADVANCE STEADILY NORTH DURING THE DAY WITH MOST OF
THE AREA LIKELY SEEING AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.
THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEMS
DESTINED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE REGION...WHERE HPC HAS
QPF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE WARM FRONT MAKES ONLY SLOW
PROGRESS NORTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE MARITIMES SUGGESTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AIR
DAMMING...CLOUDY AND DAMP WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN COMBINING ENERGY FROM A LOW
MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA WITH THE STRONG LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOISTURE PUMP FOR THE FLOODING RAINS THAT HAVE
BEEN AFFECTING THE GULF STATES.
WITH THIS IN MIND...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN WET AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT RIDE NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE DEEP SYSTEM THAT WILL FIRST COMBINE THEN EJECT THRU THE TENN
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE NERN US.
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT OFFERS A BRIEF BREAK ON
TUESDAY...AN NEW APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED FOR MID
TO LATE WEEK THAT PROMISES TO CHANGE THE PATTERN A BIT AND BRING A
PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ARISE AT THIS TIME AS THE MED RANGE
MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE LOWER
48. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF
HUDSON`S BAY BY WEDNESDAY WHICH SLOWS THE APPROACH OF THE CHUNK
OF COLD AIR MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE GR LAKES. THE GFS/GEFS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW AND TAKE AT LEAST 2 MORE DAYS
TO DEVELOP THE BLOCKING HIGH NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. WHILE THIS
NORMALLY WOULD LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK A BIT...THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COOL DOWN AFTER
MIDWEEK. WHILE IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY...ENSEMBLES INDICATE TEMPERATURES ONLY NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS DOMINATING THE PATTERN
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGE AT 4 AM.
09Z TAFS SENT.
MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY HOW FAST MVFR CIGS GET INTO
JST LATER TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNNIG...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. BASED ON LATEST SREF PROBS
AND RAP MDL OUTPUT...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE KBFD FCST ATTM.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER TODAY. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS FROM
KUNV SOUTHWARD THRU KAOO AND KJST.
FOCUS OF CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA...WHERE
LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS ASSOC WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KJST AND KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY KJST/KAOO.
MON...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
459 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...PAVING THE
WAY FOR A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
STRETCH UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING LATER TODAY AND LASTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VWP AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY
TURNED SOUTHERLY AND IS SURPRISINGLY ROBUST WITH THE CCX VWP
SHOWING THE WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 35KT JUST OFF THE DECK.
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO RETREAT OFFSHORE...WE WILL SEE THE CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO THICKEN TODAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLY REACHING MY FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. THIS LEADING IMPULSE IS WEAK AND
WEAKENING AND THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE BOTH IN HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN MANAGES TO MOVE AS WELL
AS HOW LONG IT STICKS AROUND OVERNIGHT. THE SREF AND ECMWF HINT
AT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LIGHT PRECIP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING WHILE
THE GFS/GEFS PAIRING ARE MORE PERSISTENT HINTING AT OCCASIONAL
RAIN. AT ANY RATE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL STILL BE MILDER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE LINE ALOFT IS FINALLY FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH PAVING
THE WAY FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE DEEPER INROADS INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...2-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL...WILL ADVANCE STEADILY NORTH DURING THE DAY WITH MOST OF
THE AREA LIKELY SEEING AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.
THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEMS
DESTINED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE REGION...WHERE HPC HAS
QPF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE WARM FRONT MAKES ONLY SLOW
PROGRESS NORTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE MARITIMES SUGGESTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AIR
DAMMING...CLOUDY AND DAMP WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN COMBINING ENERGY FROM A LOW
MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA WITH THE STRONG LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOISTURE PUMP FOR THE FLOODING RAINS THAT HAVE
BEEN AFFECTING THE GULF STATES.
WITH THIS IN MIND...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN WET AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT RIDE NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE DEEP SYSTEM THAT WILL FIRST COMBINE THEN EJECT THRU THE TENN
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE NERN US.
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT OFFERS A BRIEF BREAK ON
TUESDAY...AN NEW APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED FOR MID
TO LATE WEEK THAT PROMISES TO CHANGE THE PATTERN A BIT AND BRING A
PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ARISE AT THIS TIME AS THE MED RANGE
MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE LOWER
48. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF
HUDSON`S BAY BY WEDNESDAY WHICH SLOWS THE APPROACH OF THE CHUNK
OF COLD AIR MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE GR LAKES. THE GFS/GEFS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW AND TAKE AT LEAST 2 MORE DAYS
TO DEVELOP THE BLOCKING HIGH NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. WHILE THIS
NORMALLY WOULD LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK A BIT...THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COOL DOWN AFTER
MIDWEEK. WHILE IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY...ENSEMBLES INDICATE TEMPERATURES ONLY NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS DOMINATING THE PATTERN
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY HOW FAST MVFR CIGS GET INTO
JST LATER TODAY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. BASED ON LATEST SREF PROBS
AND RAP MDL OUTPUT...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 04Z-13Z
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KBFD FCST ATTM.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS FROM
KUNV SOUTHWARD THRU KAOO AND KJST.
FOCUS OF CONCERN SAT EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA...WHERE
LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS ASSOC WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KJST AND KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY KJST/KAOO.
MON...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A WARM FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
H8 RIDGE AXIS PROPOGATING FROM THE ERN GLAKS AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHILE FLATTENING
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...1030 MB SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. FAIR
SKIES WILL BE THE RULE...WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AS THE
OVERNIGHT WEARS ON. MINS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH STARTS CREEPING BACK AS A WARM FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD JUST BE RATHER MILD AND
CLOUDY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EASTWARD WHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH TO PA. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN THAT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STATE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW...IT COULD EVEN FEEL A BIT HUMID AS DEWPOINTS
CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. PWATS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH...SOME 2-3
STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. WETTEST DAY WILL BE MON...WITH QPF
AROUND 0.25 POSS UP TO 0.50 INCHES.
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER WHICH...THE MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ULTIMATELY
DELIVERING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A MORE POTENT LOW WITH COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A COOLER NW FLOW
REGIME FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SNOWFLAKES...ESPECIALLY FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY HOW FAST MVFR CIGS GET INTO
JST LATER TODAY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. BASED ON LATEST SREF PROBS
AND RAP MDL OUTPUT...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 04Z-13Z
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KBFD FCST ATTM.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS FROM
KUNV SOUTHWARD THRU KAOO AND KJST.
FOCUS OF CONCERN SAT EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA...WHERE
LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS ASSOC WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KJST AND KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY KJST/KAOO.
MON...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
CLIMATE...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1149 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.AVIATION...
LATEST DATA ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD LIFR AT LBB AND PVW
IN THE COMING HOURS AS CIGS CONTINUE LOWERING. THREAT FOR DENSE
FOG IS ALSO LEGITIMATE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH GREATER IN LOW
CIGS. LIGHT RAIN AT CDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 08Z. DRIER AND GUSTY
S-SW WINDS BY MIDDAY WILL RESTORE VFR CONDITIONS FROM W-E.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS CONSIDERABLY IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS
THIS EVENING WHILE TAPERING VALUES BACK FARTHER WEST. HRRR IS
PERFORMING VERY WELL WITH THE PRESENT BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FROM
LAWTON SW TO SAN ANGELO. SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS FAVOR
THE BRUNT OF MEASURABLE RAIN FOCUSING OVER OUR SERN ZONES FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE NORTHERN END OF THIS BAND PIVOTS INTO
OUR NERN ZONES AFTER SUNSET. THE WESTERN PROGRESS OF THIS PRECIP
SHOULD BE HINDERED QUITE SEVERELY BY DEEP MOISTURE VOIDS IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS...SO WE ARE NOT OPTIMISTIC IN MEASURABLE PRECIP
MAKING IT TO THE CAPROCK OVERNIGHT.&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
829 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM WITH DRIER WEATHER
INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 813 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE VORT AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPENING UPPER SYSTEM THAT
HAS LIFTED BY TO THE WEST WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY ENHANCE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST HRRR WHICH ORGANIZES CURRENT CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND SHIFTS IT EAST INTO THE VA PIEDMONT BY
MIDNIGHT. LATEST ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS WAVE DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING SO SOME
ADDED SURFACE BASED TSRA THREAT AS WELL GIVEN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA ATTM. THUS UPPED POPS BACK TO
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY ESPCLY OVER THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EXIT OUT EAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE INCREASED FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ONCE
CONVECTION FADES AND BUMPED UP LOWS GIVEN SATURATION. APPEARS ONLY
EASTERN LOCATIONS THAT SLIP BACK INTO THE WEDGE WILL SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE FALLS OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 325 PM EST SUNDAY...
EXPECT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG A LINE FROM GREENBRIER COUNTY SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHSIDE VA TO MOVE STEADILY NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
DUSK. THIS IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE IN MID LEVELS AND SOME
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LVLS. MODELS ARE KEEPING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT SO IN TURN WILL AT LEAST KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING BUT THINK IT WILL TURN INTO MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR
NOTHING SCENARIO WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG FORMING. QUESTION OVERNIGHT
WILL BE HOW MUCH WEDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF...AND NAM IS USUALLY
BETTER THAN GFS/ECMWF WITH HOW STRONG THE WEDGE/STABLE AIR MOVES
BACK. GIVEN THIS WILL SEE THE WEDGE REACH A LEWISBURG TO NEW RIVER
VALLEY/BLACKSBURG LINE BY 12Z...EDGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
PATRICK/SURRY COUNTY AREAS THEN EAST ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. TEMPS
OVERALL SHOULD STAY MILD IN THE 50S.
THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THOUGH MODELS STILL LINGER STABLE AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA FROM HOT SPRINGS TO LYNCHBURG THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER THETA-E RIDGING INTO THE SW
BY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF ON TIMING OF
CONVECTION...BUT HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS FIRING UP FURTHER SOUTH INTO NC BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE MAIN LINE WITH THE FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE MTNS BY 4 PM. AM NOT
SEEING A LOT OF SUNSHINE MONDAY...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-
1500 J/KG SLIDING INTO THE NC/VA BORDER AREA. WITH COOLING
HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD SEE A
THREAT OF HAIL...AND SOME ISOLATED STRONG WINDS. WILL HAVE TO ALSO
BE WARY OF THE WEDGE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY WITH SOME
TURNING/HELICITY INCREASING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS
HIGHLIGHTING MORE OF A HAIL THREAT MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE NC/VA
BORDER LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. FURTHER
NORTH THE THREAT IS MARGINAL TO NON-EXISTENT FOR SVR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
THINK THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH LOWER
CLOUDS AND FOG DISPERSING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA THEN SCOURING OUT
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE ALLEGHANYS TO NORTHEAST PIEDMONT NEAR LYH.
HIGHS WILL BE MILD WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. LOOK FOR LOWER TO MID
60S WHERE WEDGE HOLDS THE LONGEST...HOT
SPRINGS...LYNCHBURG...BUCKINGHAM...TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SUNSET THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL ALSO END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE
FEATURE EXITS THE FORECAST AREA...INSTABILITY WANING AND SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHEST POPS/QPF SHOULD PLAY OUT
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED.
ONCE THE DEEP CONVECTION EXITS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA...AND EVEN THIS THREAT WILL END LATER TUESDAY
MORNING. LITTLE OR NO AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM...SO ONCE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY LOOK FOR A QUICK REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE PROMINENT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH COULD SPREAD A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES FROM WATAUGA THROUGH GREENBRIER COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING SO...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WAS PLACED IN THIS AREA
FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH EVEN LOWER 80S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC.
THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BEGIN THE TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS THICKNESSES BEGIN TO FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EST SUNDAY...
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
FOR MID WEEK IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP INTO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL CHEW AWAY
AT THE RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...A TREND TOWARD COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE AIRMASS
TRANSITION THURSDAY...SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATING A DISTINCT
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY
EVENING...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW A FRAGMENTED TRANSITION AND
HAVE LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP.
ATTM WILL HIGHLIGHT THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT KEEP POPS
BLO 50 PERCENT UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE A DEEPER FEED OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT.
PASSAGE OF THURSDAYS FRONT WILL THEN BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SINKING BACK TO
NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL PENDING HOW MUCH INFLUENCE WE GET FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE MONITORING THIS
BOUNDARY FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
STREAKING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW TO AMPLIFY WITH WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THEN TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER THIS HAPPENS EARLY VS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ATTM HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT MODEL ACCURACY IS PLUS OR MINUS 12-24
HOURS AT THAT TIME FRAME SO ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE MADE AS
MODEL TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISH. BOTTOM LINE...PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDY AND WET.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT
AS ONGOING SHOWERS TAPER TO SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER. WEDGE ALSO LIKELY TO FLOP BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND WEST ONCE THE SHOWERS TAPER MAKING FOR OVERALL IFR TO
PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS IN FOG/STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. JUST HOW FAST THIS OCCURS STILL
UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS ALL SITES SHOULD LOWER INTO MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN LOWER FURTHER DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY.
SHOULD SEE MOST EASTERN LOCATIONS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST FALL
BACK INTO THE WEDGE BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE WEST INCLUDING
KBLF/KLWB START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE LOWER IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS COULD
HOLD AT KLYH/KROA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH KDAN SLOWLY
RETURNING TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN VFR. SHOULD ALSO SEE
KBLF/KBCB POTENTIALLY GOING VFR BY 18Z...WITH KLWB LIKELY STAYING
MVFR.
WILL SEE A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS TO THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ESPCLY MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/RAINFALL. TIMING OF HOW FAST THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH SOLUTIONS
VARYING FROM KEEPING THINGS MOSTLY DRY UNTIL MONDAY EVENING TO
HAVING SHOWERS ARRIVE BY MID AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW CLOSER
TO THE LATEST SREF MEAN WHICH PUTS CONVECTION INTO KBLF/KLWB
AFTER 20Z/4 PM...AND TO THE BLUE RIDGE PRIOR TO 23Z/7PM. THUS
INCLUDING A PREVAILING MVFR GROUP WITH TSRA/SHRA AT KBLF/KLWB LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHRA AT KBCB/KROA JUST BEFORE SUNSET.
LEAVING OUT SHRA/TSRA FARTHER EAST WITH MOST OF THIS COVERAGE
LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.
BEST COVERAGE OF STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL AS MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A KBLF-KBCB-KLYH LINE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY WILL FIND US BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY EXCEPT LINGERING
MVFR POSSIBLE KLWB/KBLF INTO FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WELL
TO THE NORTH.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
820 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM WITH DRIER WEATHER
INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 813 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE VORT AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPENING UPPER SYSTEM THAT
HAS LIFTED BY TO THE WEST WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY ENHANCE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST HRRR WHICH ORGANIZES CURRENT CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND SHIFTS IT EAST INTO THE VA PIEDMONT BY
MIDNIGHT. LATEST ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS WAVE DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING SO SOME
ADDED SURFACE BASED TSRA THREAT AS WELL GIVEN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA ATTM. THUS UPPED POPS BACK TO
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY ESPCLY OVER THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EXIT OUT EAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE INCREASED FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ONCE
CONVECTION FADES AND BUMPED UP LOWS GIVEN SATURATION. APPEARS ONLY
EASTERN THAT FALL BACK INTO THE WEDGE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
TEMPERATURE FALLS OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 325 PM EST SUNDAY...
EXPECT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG A LINE FROM GREENBRIER COUNTY SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHSIDE VA TO MOVE STEADILY NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
DUSK. THIS IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE IN MID LEVELS AND SOME
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LVLS. MODELS ARE KEEPING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT SO IN TURN WILL AT LEAST KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING BUT THINK IT WILL TURN INTO MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR
NOTHING SCENARIO WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG FORMING. QUESTION OVERNIGHT
WILL BE HOW MUCH WEDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF...AND NAM IS USUALLY
BETTER THAN GFS/ECMWF WITH HOW STRONG THE WEDGE/STABLE AIR MOVES
BACK. GIVEN THIS WILL SEE THE WEDGE REACH A LEWISBURG TO NEW RIVER
VALLEY/BLACKSBURG LINE BY 12Z...EDGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
PATRICK/SURRY COUNTY AREAS THEN EAST ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. TEMPS
OVERALL SHOULD STAY MILD IN THE 50S.
THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THOUGH MODELS STILL LINGER STABLE AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA FROM HOT SPRINGS TO LYNCHBURG THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER THETA-E RIDGING INTO THE SW
BY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF ON TIMING OF
CONVECTION...BUT HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS FIRING UP FURTHER SOUTH INTO NC BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE MAIN LINE WITH THE FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE MTNS BY 4 PM. AM NOT
SEEING A LOT OF SUNSHINE MONDAY...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-
1500 J/KG SLIDING INTO THE NC/VA BORDER AREA. WITH COOLING
HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD SEE A
THREAT OF HAIL...AND SOME ISOLATED STRONG WINDS. WILL HAVE TO ALSO
BE WARY OF THE WEDGE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY WITH SOME
TURNING/HELICITY INCREASING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS
HIGHLIGHTING MORE OF A HAIL THREAT MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE NC/VA
BORDER LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. FURTHER
NORTH THE THREAT IS MARGINAL TO NON-EXISTENT FOR SVR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
THINK THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH LOWER
CLOUDS AND FOG DISPERSING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA THEN SCOURING OUT
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE ALLEGHANYS TO NORTHEAST PIEDMONT NEAR LYH.
HIGHS WILL BE MILD WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. LOOK FOR LOWER TO MID
60S WHERE WEDGE HOLDS THE LONGEST...HOT
SPRINGS...LYNCHBURG...BUCKINGHAM...TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SUNSET THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL ALSO END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE
FEATURE EXITS THE FORECAST AREA...INSTABILITY WANING AND SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHEST POPS/QPF SHOULD PLAY OUT
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED.
ONCE THE DEEP CONVECTION EXITS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA...AND EVEN THIS THREAT WILL END LATER TUESDAY
MORNING. LITTLE OR NO AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM...SO ONCE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY LOOK FOR A QUICK REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE PROMINENT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH COULD SPREAD A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES FROM WATAUGA THROUGH GREENBRIER COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING SO...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WAS PLACED IN THIS AREA
FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH EVEN LOWER 80S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC.
THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BEGIN THE TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS THICKNESSES BEGIN TO FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EST SUNDAY...
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
FOR MID WEEK IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP INTO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL CHEW AWAY
AT THE RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...A TREND TOWARD COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE AIRMASS
TRANSITION THURSDAY...SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATING A DISTINCT
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY
EVENING...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW A FRAGMENTED TRANSITION AND
HAVE LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP.
ATTM WILL HIGHLIGHT THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT KEEP POPS
BLO 50 PERCENT UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE A DEEPER FEED OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT.
PASSAGE OF THURSDAYS FRONT WILL THEN BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SINKING BACK TO
NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL PENDING HOW MUCH INFLUENCE WE GET FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE MONITORING THIS
BOUNDARY FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
STREAKING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW TO AMPLIFY WITH WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THEN TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER THIS HAPPENS EARLY VS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ATTM HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT MODEL ACCURACY IS PLUS OR MINUS 12-24
HOURS AT THAT TIME FRAME SO ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE MADE AS
MODEL TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISH. BOTTOM LINE...PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDY AND WET.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT
AS ONGOING SHOWERS TAPER TO SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER. WEDGE ALSO LIKELY TO FLOP BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND WEST ONCE THE SHOWERS TAPER MAKING FOR OVERALL IFR TO
PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS IN FOG/STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. JUST HOW FAST THIS OCCURS STILL
UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS ALL SITES SHOULD LOWER INTO MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN LOWER FURTHER DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY.
SHOULD SEE MOST EASTERN LOCATIONS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST FALL
BACK INTO THE WEDGE BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE WEST INCLUDING
KBLF/KLWB START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE LOWER IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS COULD
HOLD AT KLYH/KROA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH KDAN SLOWLY
RETURNING TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN VFR. SHOULD ALSO SEE
KBLF/KBCB POTENTIALLY GOING VFR BY 18Z...WITH KLWB LIKELY STAYING
MVFR.
WILL SEE A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS TO THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ESPCLY MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/RAINFALL. TIMING OF HOW FAST THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH SOLUTIONS
VARYING FROM KEEPING THINGS MOSTLY DRY UNTIL MONDAY EVENING TO
HAVING SHOWERS ARRIVE BY MID AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW CLOSER
TO THE LATEST SREF MEAN WHICH PUTS CONVECTION INTO KBLF/KLWB
AFTER 20Z/4 PM...AND TO THE BLUE RIDGE PRIOR TO 23Z/7PM. THUS
INCLUDING A PREVAILING MVFR GROUP WITH TSRA/SHRA AT KBLF/KLWB LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHRA AT KBCB/KROA JUST BEFORE SUNSET.
LEAVING OUT SHRA/TSRA FARTHER EAST WITH MOST OF THIS COVERAGE
LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.
BEST COVERAGE OF STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL AS MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A KBLF-KBCB-KLYH LINE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY WILL FIND US BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY EXCEPT LINGERING
MVFR POSSIBLE KLWB/KBLF INTO FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WELL
TO THE NORTH.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1251 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY THIS EVENING....WHILE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONGER LOW COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
WILL REACH THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST SATURDAY...
NO RADAR RETURNS AT MIDDAY. FOG WILL BE ERODING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS CLEARING TAKES PLACE. WEDGE WEAKENS
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT BUMPED HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES. AS THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING SEEING SOME CU BUBBLING UP
BUT NOT MUCH AS IT HITS THE STABLE INVERSION. AS THE INVERSION
BREAKS THESE CU SHOULD DEVELOP MORE AND A FEW SHRA CAN BE
EXPECTED. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL
BE CONFINED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NE TN AREA. SO
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS HERE WITH VERY LOW TO NO POPS EAST.
PREVIOUS MID MORNING DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS BEEN DENSE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS
ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER THIS MORNING. SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS THROUGH MIDDAY. 12Z RNK SOUNDING IS SHOWING
SATURATION FROM 900 MB TO 700 MB. RADAR SHOWING VERY LITTLE
RETURNS.
THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON MESOSCALE
FEATURES AND RADAR DEPICTION ATTM...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS
MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A SPRINKLE IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND WESTERN CWA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...5H HEIGHTS FALL
SOME...WITH A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE TN VALLEY...CHANCE KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM SE
WV INTO THE CLINCH RIVER VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. 12Z NAM SEEMS TO BE DOING FAIRLY
GOOD JOB WITH CLOUD COVER. WEDGE SHOULD START TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SW VA/SE WV
AND NC POSSIBLE. KEPT FORECAST HIGHS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS THINKING
WITH NEAR 60 NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER LONG ISLAND AND EXTENDED SOUTH
INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA. RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY
EAST OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY TOWARD LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHERE THE SHOWERS
WILL BE TODAY...BUT THERE WERE SOME OVERALL TRENDS. THE CURRENT
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TRANSFERS TO THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF BLUEFIELD. THEN THE CHANCE
OF RAIN REMAINS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CLOUD HEIGHTS TO
LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO RISE WITH THE CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION.STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SO HAVE
STAYED WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. ANY
LOCATIONS THAT DO HAVE SOME PEAKS OF SUN WILL WARM UP MUCH MORE.
THE CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...
WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD BRING DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. DESPITE
SOME CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
CWA...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS PLACED ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES FROM WATAUGA THROUGH GREENBRIER COUNTIES. RAINFALL CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT FALLING BELOW THE 50S.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET BOOTED OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
HEADS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. INSTABILITY APPEARS MORE SIGNIFICANT
FOR MONDAY...WITH CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE GFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM RATHER LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGHOUT THE CWA...SO POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH BY
MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
OVERHEAD. THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SYNOPTIC
LIFT TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SPC RECENTLY INSERTED A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE HWO.
LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE WILL BE NOTICED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
DURING MONDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT A SMALL AREA OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THESE UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL DECAY ON
TUESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD YIELD DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MORE PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S TO THE
MID 70S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST FRIDAY...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVER THE REGION AT THE ONSET OF THIS
PERIOD. A DEEP LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS LOW AT THIS POINT DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FRIDAY FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY UNDER THE
RETURN FLOW FROM THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EST SATURDAY...
WEDGE ERODING WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SHRA WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE SE WV AREA AND
SCATTERED. AS SUCH TRY TIMING LIGHT SHOWERS TO BLF/LWB BASED ON
HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...BUT EVEN THEN SHOULD NOT BE MUCH AFFECT ON
VSBYS.
MODELS HAVE CIGS SINKING INTO MVFR AGAIN THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF WEDGE MAY SLIDE BACK TOWARD LYH/DAN BUT
OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST HERE.
STILL CONFIDENCE IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BY
MIDNIGHT. FOG IS QUESTIONABLE DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. ADDED MVFR
VSBYS AT BCB AND IFR AT BLF LATE TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY MVFR THRU
SUNDAY MORNING AT MOST SITES...THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
LIKELY TOWARD BCB BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOW ON VSBYS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FORM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. STILL APPEARS MAINLY SUB- VFR INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION. AFTER INTERVALS OF
VFR MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/RAINFALL. THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
TUESDAY WILL FIND US BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF MVFR
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR POST FRONTAL THURSDAY EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR
POSSIBLE LWB/BLF.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR TODAY. THE
FOLLOWING ARE RECORDS FOR MARCH 12.
LOCATION MAX TEMP AND YEAR
BLUEFIELD 79 IN 1990
DANVILLE 86 IN 1990
LYNCHBURG 86 IN 1990
ROANOKE 86 IN 1990
BLACKSBURG 78 IN 1990
LOCATION WARM MIN TEMP AND YEAR
BLUEFIELD60 IN 2006
DANVILLE 59 IN 2010
LYNCHBURG57 IN 1899
ROANOKE58 IN 1990
BLACKSBURG50 IN 2010
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...AMS/WP
CLIMATE...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1023 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY AS A LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS. A STRONGER LOW
COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL REACH THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM EST SATURDAY...
FOG HAS BEEN DENSE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS
ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER THIS MORNING. SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS THROUGH MIDDAY. 12Z RNK SOUNDING IS SHOWING
SATURATION FROM 900 MB TO 700 MB. RADAR SHOWING VERY LITTLE
RETURNS.
THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON MESOSCALE
FEATURES AND RADAR DEPICTION ATTM...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS
MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A SPRINKLE IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND WESTERN CWA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...5H HEIGHTS FALL
SOME...WITH A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE TN VALLEY...CHANCE KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM SE
WV INTO THE CLINCH RIVER VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. 12Z NAM SEEMS TO BE DOING FAIRLY
GOOD JOB WITH CLOUD COVER. WEDGE SHOULD START TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SW VA/SE WV
AND NC POSSIBLE. KEPT FORECAST HIGHS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS THINKING
WITH NEAR 60 NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER LONG ISLAND AND EXTENDED SOUTH
INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA. RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY
EAST OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY TOWARD LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHERE THE SHOWERS
WILL BE TODAY...BUT THERE WERE SOME OVERALL TRENDS. THE CURRENT
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TRANSFERS TO THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF BLUEFIELD. THEN THE CHANCE
OF RAIN REMAINS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CLOUD HEIGHTS TO
LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO RISE WITH THE CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION.STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SO HAVE
STAYED WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. ANY
LOCATIONS THAT DO HAVE SOME PEAKS OF SUN WILL WARM UP MUCH MORE.
THE CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...
WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD BRING DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. DESPITE
SOME CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
CWA...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS PLACED ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES FROM WATAUGA THROUGH GREENBRIER COUNTIES. RAINFALL CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT FALLING BELOW THE 50S.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET BOOTED OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
HEADS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. INSTABILITY APPEARS MORE SIGNIFICANT
FOR MONDAY...WITH CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE GFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM RATHER LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGHOUT THE CWA...SO POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH BY
MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
OVERHEAD. THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SYNOPTIC
LIFT TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SPC RECENTLY INSERTED A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE HWO.
LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE WILL BE NOTICED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
DURING MONDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT A SMALL AREA OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THESE UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL DECAY ON
TUESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD YIELD DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MORE PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S TO THE
MID 70S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST FRIDAY...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVER THE REGION AT THE ONSET OF THIS
PERIOD. A DEEP LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS LOW AT THIS POINT DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FRIDAY FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY UNDER THE
RETURN FLOW FROM THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EST SATURDAY...
CEILINGS WERE VARIABLE THIS MORNING FROM IFR ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO MVFR AND VFR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
RIDGE LINE. RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN FROM NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA INTO THE ROANOKE VALLEY. EXPECTING VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT
IN CEILINGS LATE TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION AND WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. BY THIS
AFTERNOON KLWB AND KBLF WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES.
DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE MODELS FOR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.
KEPT IN THE MVFR RANGE EXPECT FOR KBLF WITH MEDIUM TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY SUNDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FORM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. STILL APPEARS MAINLY SUB-
VFR INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW HOURS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION. AFTER INTERVALS OF
VFR MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/RAINFALL. THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
TUESDAY WILL FIND US BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF MVFR
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR TODAY. THE
FOLLOWING ARE RECORDS FOR MARCH 12.
LOCATION MAX TEMP AND YEAR
BLUEFIELD 79 IN 1990
DANVILLE 86 IN 1990
LYNCHBURG 86 IN 1990
ROANOKE 86 IN 1990
BLACKSBURG 78 IN 1990
LOCATION WARM MIN TEMP AND YEAR
BLUEFIELD60 IN 2006
DANVILLE 59 IN 2010
LYNCHBURG57 IN 1899
ROANOKE58 IN 1990
BLACKSBURG50 IN 2010
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...AMS/JH
CLIMATE...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1141 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION LATER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EST FRIDAY...
FRONT HAS DRIFTED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MSAS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINT AIR SINKING IN ACROSS THE REGION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT PER
EVENING SOUNDINGS HAS CONTINUED TO DETER ANY RAINFALL SO FAR
TONIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ESPCLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN A SLOWLY DEEPENING EAST/SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY
DEVELOPS BENEATH THE INVERSION BY DAYBREAK. THIS LIKELY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE LOW LEVEL SATURATION TO OCCUR LATE WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP REMAIN TOO WET IN
DEVELOPING PRECIP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING GIVEN
MORE WESTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO
CUT BACK POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING LOW CHANCES
FROM SW TO NE LATE. OTHERWISE EXPECTING ENOUGH CLOUDS TO KEEP
TEMPS UP MORE DESPITE DECENT TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SO RAISED
LOWS A CATEGORY OR SO MOST SPOTS OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 313 PM EST FRIDAY...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES EAST AND THEN BEGINS TO
WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND THE HIGH WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND
IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT HOWEVER...GENERALLY UNDER 0.10 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RUNNING AT LEAST 10 TO
15F ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 40S TO MID-50S AND HIGHS
SATURDAY LOW TO MID-60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL WEDGE SOUTH
INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY IN THE FAR WEST AND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...MEANWHILE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AND CREATE SOME
INSTABILITY AND A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A UPPER
TROUGH AND HEALTHY SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FORM THE WEST. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE WEST TO THE MID 50S IN THE EAST.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE COOL POOL OF AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A
RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL. THIS COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS COULD
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND. HOWEVER...SPC
DAY4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK INDICATED POTENTIAL TOO LOW FOR DAY 4
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE SHORTWAVE PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 50S IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST FRIDAY...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVER THE REGION AT THE ONSET OF THIS
PERIOD. A DEEP LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS LOW AT THIS POINT DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FRIDAY FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY UNDER THE
RETURN FLOW FROM THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EST FRIDAY...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTH BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT IN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL KEEP MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE A WHILE
LONGER. HOWEVER WEDGE DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMING EASTERLY ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO DEEPEN AND
POOL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH A
WEAK RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT LIKELY TO CAUSE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO FILL IN ESPCLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS AND OCNL MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG OR DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
WEDGE WEAKENS BUT STILL OVERALL MVFR MOST SPOTS OR WORSE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MODEL UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY LIFT OUT SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
SHOWERS THAT LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FORM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. STILL APPEARS MAINLY SUB-VFR INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF BREAKS MAINLY EAST SUNDAY MORNING THAT
COULD YIELD A FEW HOURS OF VFR.
WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/RAINFALL
BUT ALSO INTERVALS OF VFR ESPCLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS NEXT
ROUND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES.
TUESDAY WILL FIND US BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF MVFR
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE VFR GIVEN LACK OF MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...AMS/JH/PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
925 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.UPDATE...STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN CWA AS MID-LEVEL
TROF AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKEN AND PUSH FARTHER EAST. AS
LIGHT RAIN DIMINISHES...EXPECT FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DUE
TO DIMINISHING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. HOWEVER WINDS DO BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER LEVELS LATER TONIGHT PER RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE. LINGERING WEAK MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION MAY TRIGGER A FEW
-SHRA DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY.
DENSE FOG THIS EVENING HAS BEEN VERY PATCHY AND CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE AREA AROUND KMKE. NEARBY WEBCAMS TO THE AIRPORT SHOWING SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY JUST SOUTHWEST OF KMKE...SO FOR NOW...NO DENSE
FOG ADVISORY PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...-RA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS
EASTERN TAF SITES DURING THE LATE NIGHT. DIMINISHING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BUT SOME
INCREASING IN NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AFTER 09Z MAY
PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE. AS FOR KMKE...DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
VERY ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THIS AREA THIS EVENING. NEARBY WEB
CAMS SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF KMKE
VSBY INCREASES SLIGHTLY IN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT SOUTH OF NORTH
POINT LIGHT. WEB CAMS FURTHER NORTH HAD NOT BEEN SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTION EARLIER IN THE EVENING...HOWEVER THAT
MAY CHANGE AS -RA DIMINISHES AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DIMINISH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
WATER VAPOR/RAP SHOWS MID LEVEL WAVE RIDING NNE FROM EXTREME NERN
IL/NWRN IN. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY NUDGING UP FROM
NRN IL PER ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS. MESO MODELS AND SYNOPTIC MODELS
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE WITH ONGOING RAIN AND EXPECT THIS WET
PATTERN TO LAST THE NIGHT...TRAILING OFF IN THE WEST A BIT LATER
IN THE NIGHT. WITH LOW LEVELS MOISTENING UP AND SFC WINDS
DECREASING EXPECT FOG TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. ALREADY SEEING THIS ACROSS THE LAKE AND SOME INLAND
SPREAD/DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
ISSUANCE ATTM. WITH THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP EXPECT TEMPS TO LOOK
MORE LIKE 3 HOURLY MOS VALUES. ON MONDAY THE WAVE LIFTS FURTHER NE
AND TAKES THE WEAK SFC LOW WITH IT SO WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE MORNING THEN TRAIL THINGS OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT A BIG
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED AS CLOUDS MAY END UP BEING
STUBBORN WITH ONLY WEAK RIDGING SETTLING IN AND NO CHANGE IN LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN TO SCOUR THINGS OUT. BOTH MOS AND LLVL RH
PROGS SUGGEST KEEPING THE AREA WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
A BROAD 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS
LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ALONG...WHICH SHOULD BRING IN SOME WET CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS S WI...WITH A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT SUGGESTED BY THE 13.12Z NAM MODEL AS 925 MB NORTH-SOUTH
TEMPERATURES GRADIENT OF NEARLY 6 DEGREES C ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE 850 MB LEVEL WILL ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INDICATED BY NAM AND GFS
SOUNDING DATA.
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE 13.12Z GFS AND NAM BRINGING PRECIP IN BY 06Z
TUESDAY...WHILE THE 13.12Z ECMWF DOESN/T BRING IN PRECIP UNTIL
MUCH LATER IN THE DAY. WENT ALONG WITH THE GFS AND NAM...BUT WILL
MENTION THE UNCERTAINTY FOR NOW DUE TO THE ECMWF. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE NEXT ECMWF MODEL RUN TO SEE IF IT COMES IN LINE
WITH THE GFS AND NAM.
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM FRONTOGENETICAL WAA...AS
WELL AS PWAT VALUES NEAR ONE INCH BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS...WE
COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES UP TO A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG SHOULD PROVIDE INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF THUNDER...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
SOME IN OUR AREA.
CHANCES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW
THE BROAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO PIVOT
WEDNESDAY...BUT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS STILL EXISTS FOR
THIS PERIOD AS THE NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING PRECIPITATION
ENDING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE AREA SINCE THE PROGGED SFC LOW IS FARTHER
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE NAM AND GFS. FOR POPS...WENT WITH CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. SFC LOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO
PIVOT THE DOWNSTREAM ENERGY TOWARDS S WI...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
MAINLY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE COULD LEAD TO MORE
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AS
THIS COOLER AIR ARRIVES.
FRIDAY LOOKS COOL BUT MOSTLY QUIET WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
THE 13.12Z GFS IS INDICATING A DRY PERIOD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING LOOK
TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...AS LOWS COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S...A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WATER VAPOR/RAP SHOWS 500 MILLIBAR WAVE
RIDING NORTH FROM NE IL/NW IN. LIFR CIGS SNEAKING NORTHWARD ACRS FAR
SE WI PRETTY MUCH AS DEPICTED BY CIG HGT PROGS MVFR CIGS HGTS
EXPANDING ELSEWHERE ACROSS SRN WI. WILL BE WATCHING VSBY TRENDS
CLOSELY AS VSBYS ALREADY LOWERING ACRS LAKE MI AND WITH THE LOW
LEVELS QUITE MOIST AND BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMING MORE OF
AN ISSUE LATER ON EXPECT VSBYS TO LOWER TO LIFR LEVELS ESP FOR ERN
TAF SITES AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. MODELS LIFT SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL
WAVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON TO TAKE THE
LINGERING RAIN WITH IT. HOWEVER WITH WEAK AND BAGGY
GRADIENT...EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE TOUGH TO SCOUR. EXPECT A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY MVFR LEVELS DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DUE TO MOIST FLOW OVER COOL LAKE WATERS. ALREADY SEEING SOME
OF THE SOUTHERN WEBCAMS GETTING A LITTLE MURKY SO WILL HOIST A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND RUN IT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY DUE TO WEAK FLOW
AND OVERALL NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION REGIME. NORTHERN CUTS MAY NEED
ONE AS TIME WEARS ON AS WELL BUT FOR NOW NOT LOOKING TOO BAD FURTHER
NORTH.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ645-646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MBK
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...JTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
527 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016
AN ACTIVE FEW DAYS UPCOMING WITH STRONG WINDS...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND FALLING TEMPERATURES RETURNING. ALL OF THESE ARE
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THRU MONDAY. 20Z SATELLITE PIX SHOW WELL DEFINED UPPER-
LOW JUST SPINNING ONSHORE THE PACNW WITH A MIDLVL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC ON THE NOSE OF A WHAT THE
LATEST MDCARS OBS DEPICT IS A 130+ KNOT JET. AT ITS CURRENT RATE
OF SPEED...MODELS PROG THIS JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO
ARRIVE TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY. THIS JET STREAK HAS A GREAT TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CARBON COUNTY
AS EARLY AS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. SNOW RATES DONT REALLY GETTING GOING OVR THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES UNTIL AFTER 3 AM. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLY STRONG LLVL FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNOW RATES ALONG THE WEST
SLOPE. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVR THESE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON MONDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
THINK THAT 7-14 WILL COVER THIS EVENT...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
WESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM IN THESE MOUNTAINS...
SO HAVE OPTED WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NT. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT OF
GENERALLY OF LESS THAN ONE INCH OR SO.
THE OTHER STORY OF THIS EVENT WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD WITH WIND SPEEDS MAINLY POST
FRONTAL IN THIS BORA EVENT. LATEST LLVL GRADIENTS EXCEED CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW. GIVEN THIS...AM
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE ARLINGTON
AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY AREAS WHERE GUSTS OF UP TO 65 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY GET INTO THE SUMMIT MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY GIVEN THE STRONG POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE. HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH THERE. OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR THESE AREAS MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO
TUESDAY...EXPECT RATES TO BE MUCH LESS. WHAT WILL BE MORE
NOTICEABLE ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL
BE 10-15F LESS COMPARED TO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS
AND COLD TEMPS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER THO.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016
CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK TO THE EAST. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL WITH HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS EACH
DAY THROUGH FRI. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A BROAD SWATH OF
30 TO 40 KNOT FLOW AT H7-H8...AS WELL AS CAG-CPR GRADIENTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 METERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL
BE WED NIGHT AND THU WITH THE MODELS SHOWING THE BULK OF VORT ENERGY
OVERHEAD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
H7 TEMPS BETWEEN -10 AND -20 DEG C. A WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS WITH DECREASING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KRWL AS PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES INTO THEIR AREA
LATER THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING SNOW DEVELOPING
OUT THERE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. VERY STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KRWL...KLAR AND KCYS MONDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016
RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CARBON COUNTY THIS EVENING AND CHANGE TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EAST THROUGH THE
DISTRICTS ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY WHERE WIND PRONE AREAS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 55
MPH. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ112-114.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ106-110.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
448 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...A MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS TN AND THE SE
STATES TODAY WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY NORTH OF THE
REGION THOUGH A FEW MINOR IMPULSES ALOFT MAY AID IN TRIGGERING A FEW
LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS E CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER WSW
FLOW IS FORECAST WITH CAPE VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS ON CORRIDOR FOR
BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH 12KM NAM AND SPC WRF FAVORING NRN
PORTIONS OF THE E CENTRAL FL AND HRRR AND 00Z GFS FAVORING THE SRN
HALF. WILL KEEP A LOW THUNDER CHANCE EVERYWHERE FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL DRYING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
ACROSS NRN SECTIONS AFTER 2 PM LIKELY LIMITING CONVECTION FROM
ORLANDO NORTHWARD PAST MID AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE LOW CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRENGTHEING
LOW LVL SW FLOW INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH 85-87 ACROSS MUCH OF E CENTRAL FL.
TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THIS
EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
TUE-WED...LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WILL EXPERIENCE GREATER EXTENT OF THE
ADVERTISED DEEP LAYER DRYING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEAWARD OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER FLOW FLATTENS SIGNALING A TEMPORARY
QUIET PERIOD. A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOCATE OVER S FL TO
KEEP WINDS WITH A W COMPONENT. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE INTO THE M/U80S. LIGHTER WINDS WED SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ECSB TO FORM WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESS TO DIAL WARMTH
DOWN ALONG THE COAST. MIN TEMPS M50S-L60S. DRY WITH NO
MENTIONABLE POPS.
THU-SUN...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO OFFER A MULTI-DAY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. S FL SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO YIELD GROUND TO SAGGING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER N FL FOR THU. GATHERING MOISTURE OVER NC/NE
GULF OF MEXICO IN VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON FRI
WILL SPREAD E OVER PNSLA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS N OF I-4 THU INCREASING
AND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH FORECAST AREA FRI. A SHORTWAVE CARVES
INTO THE U.S. SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND INVIGORATING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SURFACE LOW OVER DIXIE AND DEEPENING AS IT TRANSITIONS TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC. LOOK FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN THE PNSLA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND TO OFFER EVENTUAL SETTLEMENT. CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES SAT
AND SUN WITH THUNDER. MAX TEMPS L/M80S THU AND FRI THEN U70S-L80S
SAT/SUN DUE TO THICKENING CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS IN 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW BKN MVFR STRATUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY VFR CIGS OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
THAT DEVELOP OVER E CENTRAL FL FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON
AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLC. SW WINDS 12-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY
15Z-22Z.
&&
.MARINE... SW WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-
4 FT BEYOND 20NM OFFSHORE. SOME INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WILL BRING
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE VOLUSIA COUNTY OFFSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE FROM THE MAINLAND INTO
THE ATLC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUE-WED...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS. LITTLE TO NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THU-FRI...A SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER N FL WILL INTRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL ON THU AND THEN SHOWERS
MENTIONED FOR ALL ZONES FRI. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY
LEVELS...BUT WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THUNDER.
.FIRE WEATHER... BREEZY SW WINDS TODAY EXPECTED WITH MIN RHS AROUND
45 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TRANSPORT WINDS SW 20-25 KTS TODAY.
MIN RHS TO DROP TO NEAR 35 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS TUE AS SW WINDS
HELP MAINTAIN WARM CONDITIONS AND LOCAL ATMOSPHERE TEMPORARILY
DRIES OUT. RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER THE FORECAST BY LATE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
&&
.CLIMATE...WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. MAY COME CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS FOR 14-MAR-16. RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS:
DAB...89 IN 1985.
MCO...90 IN 1917.
MLB...89 IN 1954.
VRB...89 IN 1980.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 62 84 60 / 20 10 0 0
MCO 87 65 88 62 / 20 10 0 0
MLB 86 66 86 57 / 30 10 0 0
VRB 86 64 85 58 / 30 10 0 0
LEE 85 63 86 62 / 20 10 0 0
SFB 86 66 87 61 / 20 10 0 0
ORL 87 66 87 63 / 20 10 0 0
FPR 86 63 87 56 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MRV
LONG TERM....DWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
219 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
PRESSURE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH MIDLANDS IN
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD AIRMASS
THAT IS STILL SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. HIGH RESOLUTION RAP MODEL KEEPS
SOME CONVECTION CROSSING THE NORTH MIDLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. HRRR MODEL ENDS ALL CONVECTION BY 06Z. SATELLITE
INDICATED CLOUD TOPS COOING SINCE 03Z. GIVEN THESE TRENDS WILL
KEEP CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS THROUGH 06Z.
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 APPEAR ON TRACK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DAMPENING H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS STILL DEPICT VERY COLD H5 TEMPERATURES
OF -17 TO -18 C. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF DRYING BEHIND THE LEAD MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE NAM AND
GFS MOS HAVE POPS 40 TO 50 PERCENT NORTH TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
SOUTH. THE NAM SHOWS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -7 TO -10 WITH THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE NORTH PART WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND.
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER DRYING. THE MODELS DISPLAY FLAT
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WE USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A COLD FRONT WILL LITTLE MOISTURE
APPROACHING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE MAY OCCUR BY SATURDAY WITH BACKING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND 30 TO 70 PERCENT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF POPS WERE HIGHEST CENTERED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT LOWER TO ABOUT NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE RAIN AS INDICATED BY THE
MOS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE MORNING.
SOME EVENING CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS SO NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND EXPAND THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS FROM 07Z-13Z
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 15Z BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 16Z AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY WILL
COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION WITH SOME STORMS BEING STRONG BUT MOST OF THE THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AND NOT
INCLUDING IN THIS FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1215 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
PRESSURE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH MIDLANDS IN
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD AIRMASS
THAT IS STILL SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. HIGH RESOLUTION RAP MODEL KEEPS
SOME CONVECTION CROSSING THE NORTH MIDLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. HRRR MODEL ENDS ALL CONVECTION BY 06Z. SATELLITE
INDICATED CLOUD TOPS COOING SINCE 03Z. GIVEN THESE TRENDS WILL
KEEP CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS THROUGH 06Z.
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 APPEAR ON TRACK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DAMPENING H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS STILL DEPICT VERY COLD H5 TEMPERATURES
OF -17 TO -18 C. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF DRYING BEHIND THE LEAD MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE NAM AND
GFS MOS HAVE POPS 40 TO 50 PERCENT NORTH TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
SOUTH. THE NAM SHOWS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -7 TO -10 WITH THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE NORTH PART WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND.
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER DRYING. THE MODELS DISPLAY FLAT
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WE USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A COLD FRONT WILL LITTLE MOISTURE
APPROACHING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE MAY OCCUR BY SATURDAY WITH BACKING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND 30 TO 70 PERCENT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF POPS WERE HIGHEST CENTERED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT LOWER TO ABOUT NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE RAIN AS INDICATED BY THE
MOS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATER TODAY
IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
CONCERN FOCUSES ON EARLY MORNING FOG...AND WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ON THE GROUND EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. EXPECT
MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH FOG MIXING OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z BUT DUE TO AREAL AND TIMING ISSUES...WILL NOT
MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO EARLY MORNING FOG
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1138 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
Weather system that produced today`s rainfall has shifted off into
the Great Lakes, taking the bulk of the showers with it. However,
another system, currently spinning across Arkansas, is expected to
track northeast into the Ohio River Valley later tonight. This
system will bring a renewed threat for showers, especially south
of I-70. Southeast Illinois may also see a few thunderstorms with
this rainfall. Light winds between these two weather systems and
the moist ground from today`s rains will set the table for areas
of fog to develop. While there is the potential for dense fog to
develop, expect this threat to be mitigated to at least some
degree by the thick cloud cover in place.
Going forecast was in good overall shape. Main updates required
were to precipitation trends, with mainly dry conditions expected
for the next several hours until the next system draws closer.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1005mb low near KPIA, with
widespread light showers ongoing across the western half of the KILX
CWA. Further east and south, the steady precip has diminished to
widely scattered showers along/south of a Danville to Taylorville
line. The primary area of rain will continue to dissipate/retreat
northward as the low tracks into northern Illinois this evening.
Based on radar timing tools, most of the rain will be just north of
the CWA by early evening. Will therefore only carry chance PoPs
through the evening, with highest chances focused across the far
north around Galesburg and Lacon in closer proximity to the departing
low. A second area of low pressure currently over Oklahoma will
track into western Kentucky by Monday morning. This feature will
spread showers and a few thunderstorms into the SE CWA overnight, so
have carried likely PoPs along/south of I-70 after midnight
accordingly. Due to a very weak pressure gradient, winds will be
light and variable tonight. With nearly calm winds and ample low-
level moisture left behind by the rainfall today, think fog will re-
develop across the area tonight. HRRR continues to show widespread
fog across all but the SE where rain will be falling. The fog could
potentially become dense: however, timing and areal extent remain in
question. Will carry areas of fog in the forecast, but later shifts
may need to issue a Dense Fog Advisory if trends become apparent
later this evening.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
Forecast focus this period on the threat for severe weather over
parts of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Compact upper level storm tracking east-northeast through Arkansas
then into western Ky Monday morning will bring showers and isolated
storms to parts of southeast Illinois, at least through the morning
hours, while further north, the low clouds, fog and shower chances
end from northwest to southeast during the morning with only the
southeast quarter of the forecast area still seeing the threat for
afternoon showers. Forecast soundings continue to hold on to the low
level moisture across the area into the afternoon hours so the
prospects for much in the way of sunshine are low, with most areas
seeing afternoon temperatures rise into the low to mid 60s.
As the deepening upper wave for Tuesday pushes across the Rockies
and into the high Plains late Monday night, the threat for at
least scattered showers and storms will increase out to our west
Monday night with chances increasing over our western counties
after Midnight. Still some significant differences with respect to
how quickly the upper wave tracks east across the Great Lakes with
the ECMWF the slowest, while the GFS remains the fastest in pushing
the front to our east by late afternoon Tuesday. The ECMWF digs
the shortwave southeast in response to ridging over the eastern
Pacific and that is tending to slow the system down compared to
the more progressive look from the GFS and SREF ensemble solutions.
You would have thought we would have seen a slowing trend from the
GFS, NAM and SREF solutions by now, but up through the 12z models
runs of today, we haven`t, which keeps confidence on timing and
storm mode in our area on Tuesday low.
All models continue to show deep layer shear associated with the
upper wave as it becomes negatively tilted late in the day Tuesday
with strong low level turning of the winds seen on the hodographs,
especially off the NAM. 850 mb winds depicted on the ECMWF were
southeasterly at 40-45 kts in the 21z-00z time frame across our
north. SREF forecasts of surface dew points were a bit more
conservative on Tuesday afternoon, compared with the NAM, with
mostly middle 50s forecast across our area, while the NAM near
60 degree dew points which pushed SB cape values above 2500 J/KG
over the eastern half of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon.
Forecast soundings off the NAM and GFS continue to show a capping
inversion in place at least into the early afternoon hours before
low level convergence starts to increase in the 925-850 mb layer
just ahead of the front, which should allow convection to
develop. The 4km NAM-WRF reflectivity simulations suggest the
development of storms off to our east after 21z just ahead of the
increasing low level moisture convergence. However, if the timing
off the ECMWF is correct, storms will develop by mid afternoon
further west, along or just west of Interstate 55 and streak east-
northeast through the rest of the forecast area by 02z.
Based off the low level wind profiles seen on the ECMWF, discrete
supercells capable of large hail (with 700-500 mb lapse rates over
7.0 C/KM) damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible
for a few hours, especially if the high dew points seen on the NAM
verify, before cells consolidate into a fast moving line with
mainly a damaging wind threat through late afternoon into early
evening. If the GFS verifies, storms will develop in areas east of
I-55 and be out of our area by 00z. Still quite a bit of uncertainty
with the timing of the shortwave and attendant cold front for late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. For now, will continue to mention
the higher probabilities for damaging straight line winds and hail
in the HWO for Tuesday, but as mentioned above, if the low level
moisture increases more than what is advertised in most models,
the tornado threat will start to become a concern as well Tuesday
afternoon.
Highest POPS for Tuesday will continue to be across the north with
progressively lower POPs as you head south during the afternoon and
evening. Strong gusty southerly winds are expected by late morning
into the afternoon hours as the deepening upper and surface lows
track to our west-northwest. Shower chances start to decrease
later Tuesday night as the front shifts well off to our east and
then windy conditions expected Wednesday in the wake of the storm
as it tracks slowly east across north-central Wisconsin.
Temperatures at least initially, will not cool off much on Wed.
with upper 50s to lower 60s expected during the afternoon, with
the gradual cooling trend starting on Thursday and continuing
through Sunday with temperatures returning closer to normal for
this time of year. Our next chance for rain across central IL will
be next weekend, but POPs were kept low this far out as model
spread was large.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
IFR conditions will continue to be a concern across the central
Illinois terminals well into Monday. Showers across the region,
associated with a couple separate weather systems, will remain
considerably less numerous than they were earlier today, but
fog/stratus will be widespread. Conditions should gradually
improve to MVFR Monday afternoon, with VFR likely by Monday
evening as the systems pull further away. Light/variable winds
should prevail through the period.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME OF THESE
COULD BE SEVERE. A FEW FRONTS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN MID
WEEK ON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL COOL TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ARKANSAS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA.
THE UPPER LOW /AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...AND SUFFICIENT FORCING WITH
THE LOWS SHOULD PROVIDE RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
TODAY PERIOD.
WILL GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS TODAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ONLY WENT HIGH
CHANCE POPS.
TRIED TO TIME HOURLY POPS BASED ON A BLEND OF HI RES MODEL
FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THOUGH AS
SYSTEM MOVES IN.
USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ON SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS
USED.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR EAST EARLY TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
DRY NIGHT WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARM AND MOIST AIR.
HOWEVER FORCING REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. THUS
KEPT MOST AREAS DRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ONLY ALLOWING FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER JET MOVES IN ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH. THIS FORCING SHOULD CREATE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS ILLINOIS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
GOOD SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...DURING THIS TIME
INSTABILITY WILL START TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THUS FEEL THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST OF A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS GOOD...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF
SEVERE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS...WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. MOST FORCING EXITS
BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THEN.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT A WEAK UPPER WAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HOWEVER...WENT WARMER THAN THE BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY WITH
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON WEEKEND SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER.
THE LONG TERM SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR SEASONABLE BY FRIDAY PER
ACCEPTED THE REGIONAL BLEND. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH AND MARGINAL MOISTURE.
THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN UPPER
WEEKEND TROUGH. THE GFS MOVES IT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE ECMWF SUNDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY...THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL KICK UP A WAVE ALONG THE THE STALLED GULF STATES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BRING THAT SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH
WAVES KICKED OUT BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES
BACK TO AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
REST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING ON SUNDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF A PLAINS
RIDGE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
IS REFLECTED WELL WITH THE REGIONAL BLEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/09Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
PUSHED THE START OF THE SHOWERS BACK TO 12 BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER THROUGH 09Z...OTHERWISE...FLYING
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING BACK AND FOURTH...MAINLY BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR. LAMP MOS AND SREF SUGGEST MVFR OR VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS IFR
AT LAF...CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. THEN...SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HRRR SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS WILL REACH BMG AND HUF
AROUND 09Z...IND AROUND 10Z AND LAF 12Z. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT AFTER 21Z WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BECOME VFR.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO WEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
COULD SEE SOME THUNDER TODAY. HOWEVER...COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
311 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME OF THESE
COULD BE SEVERE. A FEW FRONTS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN MID
WEEK ON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL COOL TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ARKANSAS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA.
THE UPPER LOW /AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...AND SUFFICIENT FORCING WITH
THE LOWS SHOULD PROVIDE RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
TODAY PERIOD.
WILL GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS TODAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ONLY WENT HIGH
CHANCE POPS.
TRIED TO TIME HOURLY POPS BASED ON A BLEND OF HI RES MODEL
FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THOUGH AS
SYSTEM MOVES IN.
USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ON SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS
USED.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR EAST EARLY TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
DRY NIGHT WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARM AND MOIST AIR.
HOWEVER FORCING REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. THUS
KEPT MOST AREAS DRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ONLY ALLOWING FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER JET MOVES IN ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH. THIS FORCING SHOULD CREATE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS ILLINOIS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
GOOD SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...DURING THIS TIME
INSTABILITY WILL START TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THUS FEEL THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST OF A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS GOOD...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF
SEVERE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS...WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. MOST FORCING EXITS
BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THEN.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT A WEAK UPPER WAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HOWEVER...WENT WARMER THAN THE BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY WITH
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON WEEKEND SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER.
THE LONG TERM SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR SEASONABLE BY FRIDAY PER
ACCEPTED THE REGIONAL BLEND. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH AND MARGINAL MOISTURE.
THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN UPPER
WEEKEND TROUGH. THE GFS MOVES IT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE ECMWF SUNDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY...THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL KICK UP A WAVE ALONG THE THE STALLED GULF STATES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BRING THAT SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH
WAVES KICKED OUT BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES
BACK TO AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
REST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING ON SUNDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF A PLAINS
RIDGE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
IS REFLECTED WELL WITH THE REGIONAL BLEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER THROUGH 09Z...OTHERWISE...FLYING
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING BACK AND FOURTH...MAINLY BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR. LAMP MOS AND SREF SUGGEST MVFR OR VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS IFR
AT LAF...CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. THEN...SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HRRR SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS WILL REACH BMG AND HUF
AROUND 09Z...IND AROUND 10Z AND LAF 12Z. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT AFTER 21Z WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BECOME VFR.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO WEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
COULD SEE SOME THUNDER TODAY. HOWEVER...COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME OF THESE
COULD BE SEVERE. A FEW FRONTS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN MID
WEEK ON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL COOL TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ARKANSAS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA.
THE UPPER LOW /AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...AND SUFFICIENT FORCING WITH
THE LOWS SHOULD PROVIDE RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
TODAY PERIOD.
WILL GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS TODAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ONLY WENT HIGH
CHANCE POPS.
TRIED TO TIME HOURLY POPS BASED ON A BLEND OF HI RES MODEL
FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THOUGH AS
SYSTEM MOVES IN.
USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ON SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS
USED.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR EAST EARLY TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
DRY NIGHT WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARM AND MOIST AIR.
HOWEVER FORCING REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. THUS
KEPT MOST AREAS DRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ONLY ALLOWING FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER JET MOVES IN ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH. THIS FORCING SHOULD CREATE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS ILLINOIS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
GOOD SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...DURING THIS TIME
INSTABILITY WILL START TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THUS FEEL THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST OF A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS GOOD...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF
SEVERE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS...WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. MOST FORCING EXITS
BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THEN.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT A WEAK UPPER WAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HOWEVER...WENT WARMER THAN THE BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY WITH
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SUN MAR 13 2016
MODELS DIG AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY ON AND THEN
MOVE IT INTO OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
THUS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
LONG TERM.
CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT US. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH A
DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO OUR FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT THERE ARE BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR NOW AND WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS THIS
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON ANY TIMING IS LOW.
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH BY SUNDAY...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
THEN. OTHERWISE...STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL INITIALIZATION MOST
OTHER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER THROUGH 09Z...OTHERWISE...FLYING
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING BACK AND FOURTH...MAINLY BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR. LAMP MOS AND SREF SUGGEST MVFR OR VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS IFR
AT LAF...CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. THEN...SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HRRR SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS WILL REACH BMG AND HUF
AROUND 09Z...IND AROUND 10Z AND LAF 12Z. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT AFTER 21Z WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BECOME VFR.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO WEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
COULD SEE SOME THUNDER TODAY. HOWEVER...COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
125 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
AS ONE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH OUT OF THE
AREA...ANOTHER ONE WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF RAIN AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY STRONGER FLOW
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH 02Z TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE IS TO PRESENT SOME ADDITIONAL
TIMING TO ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...AND THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION INTO
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN A FEW HOURS NOW BUT WITH MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY STILL
INDICATING SUBTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER THE AREA...WILL
MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. POCKET OF DRIER AIR WITHIN A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL
ENABLE A BREAK IN PRECIP COVERAGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIKELY WILL EVEN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BECOME
PREVALENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER OVER ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW IN TANDEM WITH THE
UPPER WAVE WILL PIVOT INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK
WITH CONVECTION SPREADING INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AFTER
09-10Z. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THAT EXPERIENCED
IN ARKANSAS SO FAR THIS EVENING...RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING AIRMASS
SHOULD BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED THUNDER.
DID SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF THESE STORMS INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY
BY A COUPLE HOURS BASED ON MOST CURRENT HI-RES GUIDANCE. PRECIP
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER DAYBREAK
MONDAY.
BUMPED LOW TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
DROP ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS AT MOST. ZONE AND
GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...MONDAY. WILL CARRY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PER
SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES. EXPECT QUIET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MORE POTENT SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN...AND
SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH A WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...AND AMPLE SHEAR PRESENT...SPC DAY 3 SLIGHT APPEARS
REASONABLE.
CONSENSUS TEMPS AGAIN APPEARED REASONABLE THROUGHOUT WITH SLIGHT
TWEAKS. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
LIKELY TO HIT THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SUN MAR 13 2016
MODELS DIG AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY ON AND THEN
MOVE IT INTO OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
THUS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
LONG TERM.
CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT US. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH A
DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO OUR FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT THERE ARE BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR NOW AND WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS THIS
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON ANY TIMING IS LOW.
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH BY SUNDAY...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
THEN. OTHERWISE...STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL INITIALIZATION MOST
OTHER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER THROUGH 09Z...OTHERWISE...FLYING
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING BACK AND FOURTH...MAINLY BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR. LAMP MOS AND SREF SUGGEST MVFR OR VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS IFR
AT LAF...CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. THEN...SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HRRR SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS WILL REACH BMG AND HUF
AROUND 09Z...IND AROUND 10Z AND LAF 12Z. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT AFTER 21Z WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BECOME VFR.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO WEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
COULD SEE SOME THUNDER TODAY. HOWEVER...COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
115 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
AS ONE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH OUT OF THE
AREA...ANOTHER ONE WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF RAIN AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY STRONGER FLOW
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH 02Z TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE IS TO PRESENT SOME ADDITIONAL
TIMING TO ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...AND THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION INTO
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN A FEW HOURS NOW BUT WITH MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY STILL
INDICATING SUBTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER THE AREA...WILL
MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. POCKET OF DRIER AIR WITHIN A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL
ENABLE A BREAK IN PRECIP COVERAGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIKELY WILL EVEN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BECOME
PREVALENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER OVER ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW IN TANDEM WITH THE
UPPER WAVE WILL PIVOT INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK
WITH CONVECTION SPREADING INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AFTER
09-10Z. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THAT EXPERIENCED
IN ARKANSAS SO FAR THIS EVENING...RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING AIRMASS
SHOULD BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED THUNDER.
DID SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF THESE STORMS INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY
BY A COUPLE HOURS BASED ON MOST CURRENT HI-RES GUIDANCE. PRECIP
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER DAYBREAK
MONDAY.
BUMPED LOW TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
DROP ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS AT MOST. ZONE AND
GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...MONDAY. WILL CARRY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PER
SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES. EXPECT QUIET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MORE POTENT SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN...AND
SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH A WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...AND AMPLE SHEAR PRESENT...SPC DAY 3 SLIGHT APPEARS
REASONABLE.
CONSENSUS TEMPS AGAIN APPEARED REASONABLE THROUGHOUT WITH SLIGHT
TWEAKS. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
LIKELY TO HIT THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SUN MAR 13 2016
MODELS DIG AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY ON AND THEN
MOVE IT INTO OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
THUS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
LONG TERM.
CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT US. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH A
DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO OUR FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT THERE ARE BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR NOW AND WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS THIS
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON ANY TIMING IS LOW.
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH BY SUNDAY...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
THEN. OTHERWISE...STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL INITIALIZATION MOST
OTHER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER THROUGH 09Z...OTHERWISE...FLYING
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING BACK AND FOURTH...MAINLY BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR. LAMP MOS AND SREF SUGGEST MVFR OR VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS IFR
AT LAF...CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. THEN...SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HRRR SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS WILL REACH BMG AND HUF
AROUND 09Z...IND AROUND 10Z AND LAF 12Z. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT AFTER 21Z WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BECOME VFR.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO WEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
136 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
UPDATED THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH 18Z TODAY PER THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBS AND NAM12 AND HRRR MODEL DATA. IT APPEARS THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA UNTIL BETWEEN
12 AND 13Z THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO
THE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT SHORTLY WITH THESE MINOR TWEAKS
INTRODUCED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE SKY COVER...POPS...AND WX
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR INDICATES THAT
SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GRIDS. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS WITH THE SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT
STILL ON TRACK. HAVE SENT THESE UPDATES TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVER
ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES AND HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY
WITH A WARM FRONT NOW BACK NORTH OF THE STATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CROSSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT AND A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING SUNSET AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO DEVELOP.
CURRENTLY READINGS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POPS AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS TO
PUT IN THE SMALL TEMP SPLIT TONIGHT. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD
GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
THIS AFTERNOON WE CONTINUE TO TRACK SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS. THAT SAID MRMS DATA DOES HAVE SOME DBZ IN THE
MINUS 20 RANGE...AND THE PROB LIGHTNING PRODUCT HAS HAD SOME
HINTS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS BETTER COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MIDDLE TN
AND CENTRAL/WEST KY AT 3 PM AND WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS LOOK TO DIE OUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
EVENING BASED ON MOST OF THE CAM DATA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THAT OVERALL BETTER LIFT WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KY
CLOSER TO THE BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVE
WAVE MOVES NORTH...HOWEVER ALL EYES TURN TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LULL SHOULD OCCUR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE NEXT WEATHER MAKER MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THAT SAID MONDAY COULD BE INTERESTING GIVEN THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE DAY BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH IT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES IN THE 6 TO 6.5
C/KM RANGE...WHILE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE IN THE 8 C/KM PLUS RANGE.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT SHEAR AND A LOW FREEZING LEVEL OF 8
K/FT TO BRING AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SETUP THE RISK FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL BASED ON THE CAM
DATA WOULD SUGGEST BEST TIMING FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND
18Z...WHICH WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE BETTER HEATING. THIS WILL
QUICKLY DIE OFF LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE
HEATING AND BETTER DYNAMICS.
OVERALL WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER TO THAT OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE WRAPPED UP TUESDAY MORNING AS FLAT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WORKS IN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING. THIS WILL SPIKE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S BEFORE
A GRADUAL COOL DOWN ENSUES FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
COMMENCEMENT OF THIS WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF
A STACKED LOW STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. LEAD IMPULSE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE
BLUEGRASS REGION. NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERLY
EXTENT OF THE LIFT AS WELL AS A SHORT TIME TABLE FOR MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE EASTERN REACHES OF THE COMMONWEALTH. FOLLOWING LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY/S SYSTEM...BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO ABOVE MENTIONED APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL PRECLUDE
MUCH IF ANY TIME FOR ADEQUATE GULF MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. NONETHELESS...40-50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
WEDNESDAY INTO THE 50S/LOWER 60S BY THE WEEKEND AS REINFORCEMENTS OF
CYCLONIC FLOW PROPAGATE SOUTH AND EAST...STEMMING FROM THE LINGERING
MIDWEEK SYSTEM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE OFFING GIVEN THIS FORCING UPSTREAM. RAIN WILL BY NO MEANS BE
CONTINUOUS AS CLEARING SKIES WILL PERIODICALLY TAKE PLACE IN BETWEEN
ROUNDS OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. STILL SEVERAL DETAILS
TO BE IRONED OUT REGARDING EXACTLY HOW THIS DISTURBANCE PLAYS
OUT...BUT A COLD FRONT DOES CURRENTLY LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER STRONGER ONE LATER
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY ISSUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FOG...WHICH COULD
BE LOCALLY DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR
BODIES OF WATER. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS
THROUGH OUT THE DAY TODAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA AROUND 14Z THIS MORNING. SME AND LOZ WOULD SEE THE
FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
JKL WOULD SEE RAIN AND STORMS BY 16Z AS WOULD SJS AND SYM. THE
STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED THIS MORNING...AND WOULD BECOME
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A MARGINAL HAIL AND OR WIND THREAT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
456 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH INTO THE WRN CONUS
AND A RIDGE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO HUDSON BAY RESULTING IN SW FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. 700-500 MB FGEN/DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH NRN LOWER MI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTO NW WI HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH NW TO
NEAR IWD.
TODAY...EXPECT THE RAIN OVER THE EAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING AS THE NRN LOWER MI SHRTWV LIFTS THROUGH NRN
LAKE HURON. ANY RAIN OVER THE WEST SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE AS WEAK
MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED INSOLATION IN THE MILD AIRMASS...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REBOUND
INTO MID TO UPPER 40S OVER EAST HALF TO THE MID 50S OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST.
TONIGHT...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BUT REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. WITH WEAK ADVECTION AND LINGERING
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...FROM THE LOW 30S EAST TO AROUND 40 OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
...RAIN AMOUNTS AND/OR SNOW AMOUNTS TUE NIGHT INTO WED IS MAIN
CONCERN...
STRONG JET CORE SURGING ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NEV HELPS DIG LARGE
TROUGH ALOFT WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUE AFTN. AT
THE SAME TIME...TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FRONT PORTION OF
THE TROUGH MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH TWO SHORTWAVES...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE AND TROUGH ENDS UP MORE COMPLEX. MAIN SFC LOW TRACKS OVER
NORTHERN MN FIRST PART OF TUE...BUT BY TUE AFTN AND TUE EVENING FOCUS
SHIFTS TO WI AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY TRACKS FM IOWA TO
LOWER MICHIGAN. MAY SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PUSH
SOME SHOWERS OVER WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN TUE...BUT MAIN RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE ON TUE NIGHT. LIFT FM PVA/STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE FM H85 LOW TIED INTO THETA-E
RIDGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORTS SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT LIFTING STEADILY NORTHWARD ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN. THOUGH PWATS ARE OVER 0.75 INCHES WHICH IS PUSHING 250-275
PCT OF NORMAL...THINK THE NAM IS ON THE WETTER SIDE OF MODELS
SHOWING QPF OVER 2 INCHES INTO WED OVER THE KEWEENAW. 1+ INCH
AMOUNTS SEEM LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN CWA CLOSER TO INFLUENCE
OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK DIVERGENCE.
WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN AND TEMPS STAYING ABOVE FREEZING EARLY THIS
WEEK...LIKELY WILL SEE SOME RESPONSE IN RIVERS DUE TO THE RAIN/SNOW
MELT. COOLER TEMPS SHOULD SLOW ANY RESPONSE MID-LATE WEEK. RECENT
REPORTS AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS OF SNOW DEPTH/SWE INDICATE SNOW DEPTHS
AROUND 20 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON KEWEENAW SOUTH OF HOUGHTON
AND ACROSS THE MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES. SWE IN THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY 4-6 INCHES. DO HAVE SOME
SMALLER/QUICKER RESPONDING BASINS IN THESE AREAS...INCLUDING THE
BLACK RIVER AND TRAP ROCK RIVER. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER RAIN
TUE NIGHT AND THE SNOW MELT...WILL HIGHLIGHT RISES IN RIVERS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
OVERALL THE GENERAL THEME OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THOUGH
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING REMAIN WITH BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED /ECMWF REMAINS ON THE SLOWER END OF MODELS/.
ADDED MENTION OF TSRA SCNTRL INTO EAST CWA TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS THAT AREA IS ON NORTH EDGE OF RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ALSO WITHIN STRONGEST H925-H85
THETA-E ADVECTION. SI/S ALSO FALL TOWARD ZERO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO BE TRYING TO ADVECT IN REMNANTS OF CLUSTERS OF TSRA THAT SHOULD
FORM UPSTREAM OVER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLIER IN THE DAY
ON TUE. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK SHOWS GENERAL TSRA OVER SCNTRL SO IT
MATCHES THAT AS WELL. ALSO PUT FOG INTO FORECAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. RAIN OVER THE MELTING SNOW SHOULD SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY
DURING ANY LONGER LULLS IN THE SHRA.
PTYPE STILL A BIGGER CONCERN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST. NAM APPEARS TOO COLD WITH BLYR TEMPS AND ITS SWITCH OVER
TO SNOW FOR KEWEENAW ON TUE NIGHT. WITH SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIP AND EAST WINDS BRINGING IN WARMER AIR SFC-H85...FOLLOWED MORE
MODERATE GFS IDEA WHICH SHOWS SUB 1KFT LAYER STAYING WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN UNTIL LATER WED MORNING INTO WED AFTN AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD SWITCH RAIN TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN
ALSO SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL CWA TO THE
WEST OF MARQUETTE WED AFTN. DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AS SFC LOW MOVES
EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN WED EVENING...NE COOL/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. PRETTY IKELY THAT NW
AND NCNTRL CWA WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW WED/WED NIGHT AND INTO THU
BEFORE THE SYSTEM DIMINISHES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO BUILDS
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL WINDS STAY N/NE BUT WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND H9-H85 TEMPS ONLY DOWN TO -7C TO -9C...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. COULD SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORK
THOUGH IN AN OVERALL TROUGHING ALOFT PATTERN SO THAT COULD BRING
CHANCE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON THU OVER THE WEST. STILL LOOKS LIKE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW NORTH OF HOUGHTON AND HANCOCK COULD END
UP WITH AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SLUSHY SNOW WED INTO WED NIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH SETTLING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK
ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST INTO FRI SO THAT WILL KEEP NORTHERN UPR
MICHIGAN COOLER WITH NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THU INTO FRI THOUGH. HIGH CROSSES FRI NIGHT SO LOWERED MINS
TOWARD AT LEAST CLIMO /TEENS INLAND/. SMALL CHANCES FOR MAINLY SNOW
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE COOLER PATTERN HANGS ON. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF
AND GFS FLIPPED ON HOW COLD IT MAY GET EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ECMWF
NOW COLDER. EVENTUALLY HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. AS A RESULT
TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK SHOULD PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
ALTHOUGH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WL IMPACT THE TAF
SITES THIS MRNG...GRADUAL INFLUX OF MORE LLVL MSTR WL CAUSE VFR
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS MRNG. SINCE SAW WL BE CLOSER
TO THE DEEPER MSTR AND SEE A LIGHT UPSLOPE SE FLOW... EXPECT SOME
IFR CIGS THERE. WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING ON MON AND WEAK HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE AREA...CIGS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE IN THE
DAY. LOWER CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OR
DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS ON TUE WITH AN INCRSGLY MOIST SE FLOW
DVLPG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY WHERE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER N CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
25 KNOTS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
107 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.AVIATION...
SCT SHRAS WILL BE REPLACED BY AREAS OF -DZ/BR AS MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT PIVOTS INTO AREA AND WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT AT LEAST IFR CIGS AND MOST LIKELY A PERIOD OF
LIFR TO VLIFR. LOWER VSBYS...OF 1SM OR LESS TO THE SSW OF THE
TERMINALS SHOULD ALSO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND
PERSIST THROUGH MORNING. WHILE CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING
AFTERNOON...AND LOWER VFR FNT/MBS...SKIES WILL REMAIN BKN/OVC
WITH ADDITIONAL VSBYS RESTRICTIONS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST AS
SECOND LOW PRESSURE BRUSHES THE AREA.
FOR DTW...LOW CIGS OF 500 FEET OR LESS LIKELY LOWER TO 200-300 FEET
WITH VSBYS ALSO DROPPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER
THE THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR BY MIDDAY
WITHIN SLIGHTLY DRIER SW FLOW IN WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
-SHRAS/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 00Z MONDAY EVENING AS A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH OHIO.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT.
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AOB 200 FEET AND/OR VSBYS AOB 1/2SM
07Z TO 13Z TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
DISCUSSION...
WHAT IS NOW THE PRIMARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT EMERGED OUT OF THE
EARLY WEEK TX/MEXICO UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM IS NOW LIFTING DUE
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF IL/IN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK DIRECTLY THROUGH WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING. WITH TIME...THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND THE RESULTANT
CHANGE IN KINEMATICS/WIND DIRECTION WILL FORCE A CHANGE IN THE
ADVECTIONS AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZE THE 850-700MB FGEN AXIS THAT HAD
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET DAY...TO THE NORTH OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME TO HAPPEN HOWEVER...AS THE
OVERALL EVENT IS A SLOW EVOLVING ONE. A SHARP NORTHERN CUTOFF TO THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY THE CENTER OF
THE PRECIPITATION AXIS TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AT 00Z...OVER THE
NORTHERN THUMB AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON AT 06Z...WITH THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE BAND EXITING THE CWA AT/AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING. RH
PROGS...SATELLITE TRENDS...UPSTREAM CEILIOMETER OBS...SUPPORT SOME
COMPONENT OF MIDLEVEL DRY AIR OR A MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT OF SORTS TO
BEGIN LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS
WOULD END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER...HOW
MUCH MIDLEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IS UP FOR DEBATE. PREFER A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION WHERE PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE STRIPPED OUT WITH
A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH TIME...HOWEVER...
FOR THOSE THAT REMAIN WITHIN THE HEART OF THE FGEN AXIS RATES WILL
BE SLOW TO WANE. IN THE EARLIER UPDATE...DISCUSSED HOW TOTAL
PRECIPITATION RAINFALL ESTIMATE WAS PROBABLY OVERDOING AMOUNTS.
WHILE TRUE ON THE FRONT END OF THE ENVIRONMENT WHERE DRY AIR WAS
FIGHTING OF PRECIPITATION...IT APPEARS THAT RATES ARE CERTAINLY
DOING WELL WITH COLUMN SATURATION. MANY AREAS IN THE DETROIT METRO
HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FOOTPRINT OF .25 TO .40 OF AN INCH. GIVEN THE
TIME YET TO GO AND THE BULLISH RAP QPF FIELD...TOTAL QPF IN EXCESS OF
50 INCH...TO .75 INCH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
SOME VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING NAM AND HRRR ARE TRYING TO
PRESERVE SOME SPURIOUS AND ANOMALOUS QPF MAXIMUM ALONG THE LEADING
CVA OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THIS MODELED CONVECTION HAS BEEN
FORECASTED TO LIFT DIRECTLY NORTH OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
MBS...CONTAMINATING THE QPF FIELD. IT SEEMS THE CENTRAL INDIANA
CLUSTER WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SURVIVING WITH THE GENERAL LACK
OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECTING A
TRANSITION FROM LAMINAR STRATIFORM RAIN TO MORE RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING.
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO EXIST. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE STRENGTH OF
THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL EVOLVE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME DATA SETS
SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 6 TO 7 KNOTS OF SUSTAINED WIND HOLDING ON.
MODELED CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT FIELD POINT TO THIS DIRECTION
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONSENSUS OR CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO HEIGHTEN ANY
MESSAGE. FEELING IS IT COULD BE AS LATE AS 10Z BEFORE FOG
DEVELOPS...AND POSSIBLY TAKE UNTIL VERY LATE MORNING TO LIFT.
A WEAKNESS OR BUCKLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD DIRECTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND TROUGHINESS OVER THE STATE ON MONDAY. THE WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDING THROUGH THE CWA SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL AIRMASS. RH PROGS SHOW SOLID SATURATION HOLDING AT 700MB AND
THIS RAISES QUESTION AS TO THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON THE SHOULDERS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF A MORE
FOCUSED SURFACE REFLECTION/SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EFFECTS INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY...SLIGHTLY LESS
OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
50S TO 60 DEGREES FAR SOUTH. THE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD/FOG IN THE MORNING. IT COULD TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM APPRECIABLY.
THE MONDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD SEEMS IT WILL BE GOVERNED BY A COMPLEX
INTERACTION THAT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW
LIFTING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE MORE VIGOROUS LOW AFFECTION
PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS. THE NORTHERN SPIRAL EDGE TO THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO UNRAVEL AND BE CAUGHT WITHIN A TRAILING
DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS PRECEDING WAVE. ESSENTIALLY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL THEN ZIPPER ALONG THIS DEFORMATION AXIS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. BASED ON EARLIER DATA...SHADED DRY FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT MAY HAVE BEEN AN OVERCORRECTION AS SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST BEYOND 00Z TUESDAY.
THE COMPLEXITIES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY DYNAMIC SETUP. THE PROBLEM IS
THERE IS A MYRIAD OF PV INTERACTIONS YET TO OCCUR THAT WILL HAVE
A SAY IN THE FINAL OUTCOME. THE TREND FOR THE 13.12Z SUITE WAS TO
PUSH TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ON THE THETA E RIDGE
INTO THE 06-12Z WEDNESDAY WINDOW...WHILE WAITING ON THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. LATEST SWODY3 HAS A MARGINAL
DESIGNATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA CONDITIONAL ON
UPSTREAM...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. IT REMAINS A FLUID SITUATION BASED ON
DEPENDENCE OF TIMING AND ABILITY TO BECOME WELL MIXED AT THE
SURFACE...BUT THE POTENTIAL APPEARS GOOD FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TRANSPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
THAT THERMODYNAMICS AND VERY DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO
POSSIBLE WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER 50`S. A COOLING TREND
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
FRESH EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. WINDS WILL THEN WEAK DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY HAS A
WEAK AND VERY BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL RESPOND
TEMPORARILY OUT OF THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW
EXITING THE AREA...BEFORE QUICKLY ORGANIZING EASTERLY AGAIN AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO BE MUCH MORE DYNAMIC. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
YET...BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME VERY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF WEDNESDAY. POSTFRONTAL WESTERLY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY EXCEED 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ST CLAIR AND THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...CB/DE
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
445 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AREA OF CLOUDS/SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS UTAH AND
IDAHO SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MIXING HEIGHTS TO 10KFT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN
NEBRASKA. WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SFC WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE ANYTHING STRONGER EXCEPT THE MOSGUIDE. NONETHELESS
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENT OFTEN PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. THE RAP SUGGESTS ELEVATED CAPE LESS THAN 200 J/KG WHICH
COULD PERHAPS LIMIT PRECIPE LOADING AND THE WIND GUSTS. HIGHS IN THE
70S ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IGNORES THE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND RESPECTS THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS EVENING.
SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WITH
THE BLACK HILLS CONVERGENCE OPERATING. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
WIND AND DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ENHANCED MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
IS EVIDENT WITH ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AT 290K... INVERTED V PROFILES
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS... AND FALLING DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
DEEP MIXING TO 700HPA TUESDAY AND 650HPA WEDNESDAY NOTED IN GFS AND
NAM SOUNDINGS WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA ALSO
RESULTS IN A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT... FURTHER AIDING IN DRY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF USING THE DRIEST GUIDANCE...
MAINLY MAV... AND FURTHER REDUCED DEW POINTS TO TAKE IN ACCOUNT CAA
AND DOWNSLOPE. DESPITE COOLER HIGHS... DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MIN RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAKE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OVERALL... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN MIXED SUN/CLOUDS... STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW... AND
850HPA TEMPS AROUND 3C AT 18-00Z BOTH DAYS. A WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY... BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
FORCING REMAIN NORTH OF THE SDAK BORDER... SO REMOVED SCHC POPS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HWY 20.
LONG RANGE...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... GFS AND EURO ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY AND
A 500HPA LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY... BUT DIFFERENCES GROW OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE LOW MERGING WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVING EAST
QUICKLY... ALLOWING 850HPA TEMPS TO RECOVER TO 10C ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO KEEPS THE LOW PARKED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES IT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY... MAKING FOR A MUCH SLOWER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
AND POSSIBLY WETTER WEEKEND FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. A WEAK COOL FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AREA THURSDAY... WHICH MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP NEAR
THE PINE RIDGE. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE AS LOW AS 800HPA ALONG
WITH SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP... ALBEIT LIGHT... FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ARRIVES FRIDAY AS A
LEESIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW.
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FRIDAY MORNING... BUT LIFT IS
RATHER WEAK... ESPECIALLY IN THE DGZ. LEFT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY
DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AON 20000
FT AGL OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY WITH
BROKEN CIGS AROUND 10000 EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY 22Z
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH CIGS OF 7000 TO
10000 FT AGL EXPECTED. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT FEW TO
SCATTERED CIGS AROUND 20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
10000 FT AGL BY MIDDAY MONDAY...THEN INCREASE TO 20000 FT AGL BY
MONDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BE SPARSE...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE 06Z KVTN TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
THE BEST GUESS USING THE HRRR...RAP AND HRRREXP MODELS IS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT RH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN FRENCHMAN BASIN
FIRE ZONE. THE ARW AND NMM MODELS WERE A BIT DRIER.
ISOLATED DRY TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY SPARK A FEW FIRES WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTN. THE LIGHTENING ACTIVITY LEVEL IS 3. ALL OF
THIS SUGGESTS THERE IS GOOD RANGE FIRE POTENTIAL BUT LESS THAN THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD.
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR WILD FIRE DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA IS OF GREATEST
CONCERN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST AND HUMIDITY LOWEST.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS AREA.
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT. ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TUESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AREA OF CLOUDS/SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS UTAH AND
IDAHO SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MIXING HEIGHTS TO 10KFT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN
NEBRASKA. WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SFC WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE ANYTHING STRONGER EXCEPT THE MOSGUIDE. NONETHELESS
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENT OFTEN PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. THE RAP SUGGESTS ELEVATED CAPE LESS THAN 200 J/KG WHICH
COULD PERHAPS LIMIT PRECIPE LOADING AND THE WIND GUSTS. HIGHS IN THE
70S ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IGNORES THE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND RESPECTS THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS EVENING.
SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WITH
THE BLACK HILLS CONVERGENCE OPERATING. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
WIND AND DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ENHANCED MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
IS EVIDENT WITH ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AT 290K... INVERTED V PROFILES
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS... AND FALLING DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
DEEP MIXING TO 700HPA TUESDAY AND 650HPA WEDNESDAY NOTED IN GFS AND
NAM SOUNDINGS WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA ALSO
RESULTS IN A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT... FURTHER AIDING IN DRY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF USING THE DRIEST GUIDANCE...
MAINLY MAV... AND FURTHER REDUCED DEW POINTS TO TAKE IN ACCOUNT CAA
AND DOWNSLOPE. DESPITE COOLER HIGHS... DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MIN RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAKE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OVERALL... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN MIXED SUN/CLOUDS... STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW... AND
850HPA TEMPS AROUND 3C AT 18-00Z BOTH DAYS. A WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY... BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
FORCING REMAIN NORTH OF THE SDAK BORDER... SO REMOVED SCHC POPS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HWY 20.
LONG RANGE...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... GFS AND EURO ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY AND
A 500HPA LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY... BUT DIFFERENCES GROW OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE LOW MERGING WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVING EAST
QUICKLY... ALLOWING 850HPA TEMPS TO RECOVER TO 10C ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO KEEPS THE LOW PARKED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES IT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY... MAKING FOR A MUCH SLOWER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
AND POSSIBLY WETTER WEEKEND FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. A WEAK COOL FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AREA THURSDAY... WHICH MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP NEAR
THE PINE RIDGE. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE AS LOW AS 800HPA ALONG
WITH SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP... ALBEIT LIGHT... FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ARRIVES FRIDAY AS A
LEESIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW.
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FRIDAY MORNING... BUT LIFT IS
RATHER WEAK... ESPECIALLY IN THE DGZ. LEFT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY
DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AON 20000
FT AGL OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY WITH
BROKEN CIGS AROUND 10000 EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY 22Z
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH CIGS OF 7000 TO
10000 FT AGL EXPECTED. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT FEW TO
SCATTERED CIGS AROUND 20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
10000 FT AGL BY MIDDAY MONDAY...THEN INCREASE TO 20000 FT AGL BY
MONDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BE SPARSE...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE 06Z KVTN TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
THE BEST GUESS USING THE HRRR...RAP AND HRRREXP
MODELS IS RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
AREA OF LESS THAN 15 PERCENT RH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN FRENCHMAN
BASIN FIRE ZONE. ISOLATED DRY TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY SPARK A FEW
FIRES WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTN. THE LIGHTENING ACTIVITY LEVEL IS
3. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THERE IS GOOD RANGE FIRE POTENTIAL BUT LESS
THAN THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
CLOUD COVER TODAY AND PRECIP MOVING IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL
BE THE MAIN PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN EDGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING. MAY
TRIM OFF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
6 TO 7 AM UPDATE THIS MORNING...EXACTLY HOW MANY TO BE DETERMINED.
THE RAP KEEPS HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM IS A BIT FASTER
IN DRYING THINGS OUT. DID NOT GO QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE
RAP...BUT HAVE SOME CLOUDS HANGING OUT A BIT LONGER TODAY...AND
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY. DO THINK WE WILL
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AND WITH 925MB TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOW
TEENS...UPPER 50S TO SOME MID 60S IN THE FAR WEST WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING OFF OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AND INTO THE CWA. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND
BY THIS EVENING AND MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY SETTING UP JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER BY TOMORROW
MORNING. MANY OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE FAIRLY HEALTHY QPF
VALUES...SO SOME DECENT RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY. WITH NEGATIVE
SHOWALTERS FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION...BUT THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE RAIN. THINK
THAT SEVERAL TENTHS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HALF AN INCH BY MORNING
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS/SFC BOUNDARY STALLS OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA...MOST LIKELY NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SET UP OF THE SYSTEM AND
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. THE NAM HAS OVER AN INCH OF QPF
JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER WHILE THE GFS IS MOSTLY OUT OF THE CWA
BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECWMF AS ALSO BEEN TRENDING A BIT FURTHER
EAST WITH THE PRECIP BAND SET UP. GEFS PLUMES ARE STILL SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AND QPF MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BUT LOWERED THEM SOMEWHAT IN THE WEST AS THERE SEEMS TO
BE AN EASTWARD TREND. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL START THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEP US IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER THE REGION AS A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS TWO SFC LOWS CENTERS...WITH
ONE OVER CANADA AND THE OTHER OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MODELS DIG THE CANADIAN LOW SOUTHWARD. NOT A LOT OF
CERTAINTY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
COMING IN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. A FEW INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS NOTHING
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS SIMPLE. THE TEMPS WILL BE CONTINUING DOWNWARD
TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INITIAL UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION...WITH AN ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PATTERN WILL SHIFT
TO A WEST COAST RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH SET UP...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
IFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF EASTERN ND. MANY SITES HAD 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY AND 2 HUNDRED FT
CIGS IN THE IFR AREA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST
MN AND SOUTHEAST ND. FOG MAY DISSIPATE STARTING IN THE EASTERN ZONES
MON MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ008-016-
027-029-030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/TG
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
244 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AFTER A BRIEF BOUT OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE RISE AFTER 12Z...AS A
FAST MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING ALONG THE PLATEAU...AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS BY THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOOK AT
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE TO WORK
WITH AT KTYS AND KTRI DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE
FORM OF SINGLE AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING ALONG THE
PLATEAU AROUND 15-16Z...AND SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH 21-22Z INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS
PARTICULARLY SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL AS THE STORM MODE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUNDINGS AT KCHA...KTYS AND KTRI ALSO EXHIBIT AN
INVERTED-V PROFILE DURING THE AFTERNOON...INDICATING A DOWNBURST
AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE PRESENCE OF SOME COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND A LOWER MELTING LEVEL/WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT WILL ALSO
GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS
WELL. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
KNOXVILLE. HOWEVER...A MARGINAL THREAT DOES EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
DECREASE AS THE IMPULSE RACES EAST...ALSO COINCIDING WITH LESSENED
INSTABILITY VALUES. THUS...THE THUNDER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY A
22-00Z TIMEFRAME. THEREAFTER...PRECIPITATION WILL WANE AND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. LOWS
WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY IN TO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK APPROACHES AND 850MB
JET MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING QUICKLY TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...LIMITING MOISTURE FOR THE
BOUNDARY. SO NOT EXPECTING MANY...IF ANY...RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA. WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE DAY.
THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
TN VALLEY TO BE IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS
ARE IN BAFFLING DISAGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. GFS WANTS
TO TAKE A WEAK DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND LEAVE FRIDAY DRY. ECMWF AND CANADIAN WANT TO LEAVE
THURSDAY DRY...AND TAKE THE DISTURBANCE THROUGH ON FRIDAY IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND EAST TN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE CHAOTIC THOUGH LIGHT
WINDS...AND LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LIFT...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE FOR THE AREA WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO AGREE AGAIN WITH A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE U.S. SOUTHERN FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF LIFT AND STRONG WINDS SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FLOW THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
THE NW AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHEAR SATURDAY EVENING IS
HIGH AND PW VALUES ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COULD SEE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT OF COURSE TOO
EARLY TO SAY MUCH DETAILS WITH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH EACH DAY A
LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE. ONCE THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
CUT OFF...TEMPS WILL APPROACH NORMAL BY FRIDAY...BECOMING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEEP TROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 50 81 54 / 70 10 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 52 79 54 / 80 20 0 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 52 78 54 / 80 20 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 70 51 74 51 / 80 40 10 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AMP/JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
217 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM WITH DRIER WEATHER
INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 813 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE VORT AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPENING UPPER SYSTEM THAT
HAS LIFTED BY TO THE WEST WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY ENHANCE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST HRRR WHICH ORGANIZES CURRENT CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND SHIFTS IT EAST INTO THE VA PIEDMONT BY
MIDNIGHT. LATEST ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS WAVE DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING SO SOME
ADDED SURFACE BASED TSRA THREAT AS WELL GIVEN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA ATTM. THUS UPPED POPS BACK TO
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY ESPCLY OVER THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EXIT OUT EAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE INCREASED FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ONCE
CONVECTION FADES AND BUMPED UP LOWS GIVEN SATURATION. APPEARS ONLY
EASTERN LOCATIONS THAT SLIP BACK INTO THE WEDGE WILL SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE FALLS OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 325 PM EST SUNDAY...
EXPECT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG A LINE FROM GREENBRIER COUNTY SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHSIDE VA TO MOVE STEADILY NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
DUSK. THIS IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE IN MID LEVELS AND SOME
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LVLS. MODELS ARE KEEPING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT SO IN TURN WILL AT LEAST KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING BUT THINK IT WILL TURN INTO MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR
NOTHING SCENARIO WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG FORMING. QUESTION OVERNIGHT
WILL BE HOW MUCH WEDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF...AND NAM IS USUALLY
BETTER THAN GFS/ECMWF WITH HOW STRONG THE WEDGE/STABLE AIR MOVES
BACK. GIVEN THIS WILL SEE THE WEDGE REACH A LEWISBURG TO NEW RIVER
VALLEY/BLACKSBURG LINE BY 12Z...EDGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
PATRICK/SURRY COUNTY AREAS THEN EAST ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. TEMPS
OVERALL SHOULD STAY MILD IN THE 50S.
THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THOUGH MODELS STILL LINGER STABLE AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA FROM HOT SPRINGS TO LYNCHBURG THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER THETA-E RIDGING INTO THE SW
BY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF ON TIMING OF
CONVECTION...BUT HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS FIRING UP FURTHER SOUTH INTO NC BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE MAIN LINE WITH THE FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE MTNS BY 4 PM. AM NOT
SEEING A LOT OF SUNSHINE MONDAY...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-
1500 J/KG SLIDING INTO THE NC/VA BORDER AREA. WITH COOLING
HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD SEE A
THREAT OF HAIL...AND SOME ISOLATED STRONG WINDS. WILL HAVE TO ALSO
BE WARY OF THE WEDGE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY WITH SOME
TURNING/HELICITY INCREASING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS
HIGHLIGHTING MORE OF A HAIL THREAT MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE NC/VA
BORDER LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. FURTHER
NORTH THE THREAT IS MARGINAL TO NON-EXISTENT FOR SVR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
THINK THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH LOWER
CLOUDS AND FOG DISPERSING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA THEN SCOURING OUT
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE ALLEGHANYS TO NORTHEAST PIEDMONT NEAR LYH.
HIGHS WILL BE MILD WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. LOOK FOR LOWER TO MID
60S WHERE WEDGE HOLDS THE LONGEST...HOT
SPRINGS...LYNCHBURG...BUCKINGHAM...TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SUNSET THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL ALSO END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE
FEATURE EXITS THE FORECAST AREA...INSTABILITY WANING AND SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHEST POPS/QPF SHOULD PLAY OUT
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED.
ONCE THE DEEP CONVECTION EXITS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA...AND EVEN THIS THREAT WILL END LATER TUESDAY
MORNING. LITTLE OR NO AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM...SO ONCE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY LOOK FOR A QUICK REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE PROMINENT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH COULD SPREAD A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES FROM WATAUGA THROUGH GREENBRIER COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING SO...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WAS PLACED IN THIS AREA
FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH EVEN LOWER 80S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC.
THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BEGIN THE TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS THICKNESSES BEGIN TO FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EST SUNDAY...
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
FOR MID WEEK IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP INTO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL CHEW AWAY
AT THE RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...A TREND TOWARD COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE AIRMASS
TRANSITION THURSDAY...SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATING A DISTINCT
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY
EVENING...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW A FRAGMENTED TRANSITION AND
HAVE LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP.
ATTM WILL HIGHLIGHT THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT KEEP POPS
BLO 50 PERCENT UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE A DEEPER FEED OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT.
PASSAGE OF THURSDAYS FRONT WILL THEN BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SINKING BACK TO
NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL PENDING HOW MUCH INFLUENCE WE GET FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE MONITORING THIS
BOUNDARY FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
STREAKING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW TO AMPLIFY WITH WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THEN TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER THIS HAPPENS EARLY VS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ATTM HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT MODEL ACCURACY IS PLUS OR MINUS 12-24
HOURS AT THAT TIME FRAME SO ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE MADE AS
MODEL TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISH. BOTTOM LINE...PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDY AND WET.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM EDT SUNDAY...
LIFR/IFR FOG IS AFFECTING BCB AND LWB AT THIS HOUR DUE TO THE
MOIST GROUND AND RECENT RAINFALL...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BEFORE DAWN ON MONDAY MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AREA...BUT THESE SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
BY MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH MVFR/IFR BY NOON. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SWING OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY...AND SPARK A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST AT LYH
FOR ANY CONVECTION DUE TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...SO THUNDER
WAS NOT INSERTED THERE. ELSEWHERE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MAY ARISE
DURING THE STORMS...AND HAIL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND DECENT INSTABILITY. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS MAY LOWER AGAIN
TO MVFR/IFR BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLE FOG
FORMATION FROM THE WET GROUND.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR DURING TUESDAY FOR
BCB/ROA/LYH/DAN...BUT SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS MAY KEEP CONDITIONS AT MVFR FOR BLF AND LWB UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE VFR...BUT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH BLF AND LWB BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS...MORE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW GOOD FLYING WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY APPEAR GENERALLY DRY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1116 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016
AN ACTIVE FEW DAYS UPCOMING WITH STRONG WINDS...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND FALLING TEMPERATURES RETURNING. ALL OF THESE ARE
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THRU MONDAY. 20Z SATELLITE PIX SHOW WELL DEFINED UPPER-
LOW JUST SPINNING ONSHORE THE PACNW WITH A MIDLVL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC ON THE NOSE OF A WHAT THE
LATEST MDCARS OBS DEPICT IS A 130+ KNOT JET. AT ITS CURRENT RATE
OF SPEED...MODELS PROG THIS JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO
ARRIVE TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY. THIS JET STREAK HAS A GREAT TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CARBON COUNTY
AS EARLY AS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. SNOW RATES DONT REALLY GETTING GOING OVR THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES UNTIL AFTER 3 AM. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLY STRONG LLVL FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNOW RATES ALONG THE WEST
SLOPE. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVR THESE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON MONDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
THINK THAT 7-14 WILL COVER THIS EVENT...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
WESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM IN THESE MOUNTAINS...
SO HAVE OPTED WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NT. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT OF
GENERALLY OF LESS THAN ONE INCH OR SO.
THE OTHER STORY OF THIS EVENT WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD WITH WIND SPEEDS MAINLY POST
FRONTAL IN THIS BORA EVENT. LATEST LLVL GRADIENTS EXCEED CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW. GIVEN THIS...AM
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE ARLINGTON
AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY AREAS WHERE GUSTS OF UP TO 65 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY GET INTO THE SUMMIT MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY GIVEN THE STRONG POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE. HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH THERE. OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR THESE AREAS MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO
TUESDAY...EXPECT RATES TO BE MUCH LESS. WHAT WILL BE MORE
NOTICEABLE ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL
BE 10-15F LESS COMPARED TO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS
AND COLD TEMPS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER THO.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016
CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK TO THE EAST. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL WITH HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS EACH
DAY THROUGH FRI. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A BROAD SWATH OF
30 TO 40 KNOT FLOW AT H7-H8...AS WELL AS CAG-CPR GRADIENTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 METERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL
BE WED NIGHT AND THU WITH THE MODELS SHOWING THE BULK OF VORT ENERGY
OVERHEAD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
H7 TEMPS BETWEEN -10 AND -20 DEG C. A WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KRWL AS PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THEIR AREA LATER THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING
SNOW DEVELOPING OUT THERE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KRWL...KLAR AND KCYS
MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016
RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CARBON COUNTY THIS EVENING AND CHANGE TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EAST THROUGH THE
DISTRICTS ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY WHERE WIND PRONE AREAS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 55
MPH. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ112-114.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ106-110.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
837 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG
THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:32 AM PDT MONDAY...FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
PERSIST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON REGION-WIDE. IN ADDITION, SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
GENERALLY INTO THE 60S (UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST). THE ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWS
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE...AS THE FINAL IN A SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS EXITS TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A HALF INCH IN
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN THE SANTA
LUCIA RANGE OF MONTEREY COUNTY. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MID
MORNING.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
UNTIL MID MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AS A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TO FORM TONIGHT. WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ALSO DEVELOPING LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S FORECAST BY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
A FEW LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. DRY AND
BALMY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WEST COAST. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS DON`T AGREE PARTICULARLY
WELL ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL DURING THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MOST RAINFALL WILL MOVE
INLAND TO OUR NORTH AND THAT ONLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF GETTING WET.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 AM PDT MONDAY...THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGE IS SHOWING A MIX OF MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER
THE AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING THIS MORNING TO PREVENT ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
FROM FORMING. EXPECTING MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH CUMULUS
CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
SCT-BKN035 DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING WITH HEATING OF THE DAY
PRODUCING CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REACH 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS TO START THE DAY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO SCT-
BKN025 LATER THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8
TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 2:51 AM PDT MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AS COOL AIR FILLS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. AS THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
EXPECT MODERATE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT SUR.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
MODERATE SEAS WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES OCCURRING AT NEAR SHORE
REEFS AND SAND BARS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER SEAS WILL
DECREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
832 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL
KEEP STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...A DEEP MARINE LAYER...AND SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
DRY AND WARMER DAYS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INLAND. LATE IN THE WEEK...ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING SOME COOLING...HIGHER HUMIDITY...AND A RETURN OF MARINE
CLOUDS TO COASTAL AREAS.
.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AT 8 AM PDT...RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING SE WEST
OF THE MTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY UNDER ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH...EXCEPT IN SPOTS ON AND NEAR THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO MTS WHERE AMOUNTS TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. NO MIRAMAR SOUNDING WAS AVAILABLE AT 12Z. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WERE RUNNING 5-7 MBS ONSHORE FROM KSAN TO THE DESERTS.
STRONGEST WINDS WERE RUNNING 25 WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH IN THE
ONSHORE WIND-PRONE AREAS OF THE MTS.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERT AREAS
THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT IT WILL BE DISCONTINUED OVER THE MTS ON
SCHEDULE AT 10 AM PDT. MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING WEST OF THE MTS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN
THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE DESERTS.
BASED ON AVAILABLE MOS GUIDANCE AND HI RES MODELS...MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN EDDY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP. MUCH OF THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AS THE SYNOPTIC
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE OFFSHORE. SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP BELOW THE CAJON AND MORONGO PASS AREAS TUE/WED
MORNINGS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MODELS SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORMING ALONG AND JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST WED/THU. A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS UP AT
AROUND 30N JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SEEMS TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A COASTAL EDDY ON THE LOCAL WRFEMS AND THE 12Z NAM 12 RUN. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS/FOG AND COOLING ALONG THE COAST AS EARLY AS
THU...BUT INLAND...THE DAYS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
141530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...A MIX OF CLOUD BASSES BETWEEN 800 AND 3500
FT MSL WILL OCCUR THROUGH 19Z...WITH AREAS OF VIS TO 1 SM IN -SHRA.
ANY PERIODS IFR CONDITIONS AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES SHOULD BE BRIEF.
LOW CLOUD TOPS BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FT MSL THROUGH 19Z. -SHRA
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 19Z...WITH FEW-BKN CLOUD BETWEEN 2000 AND
3500 FT MSL THEREAFTER THROUGH 00Z. BKN CIGS WILL LOWER TO 700-2000
FT MSL AFTER 04Z AND BE FOCUSED WITHIN 25 SM OF THE COAST. A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AT KCRQ AFTER 04Z TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN THE CIGS AFTER 04Z IS LOW TO MODERATE.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...BKN-OVC...VIS OF 1 SM OR LESS AND -SHRA WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES THROUGH 21Z...WITH SKC-SCT
DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z. ELSEWHERE FEW-SCT AOA FL200 WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONGOING AREAS OF WESTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT
WITH GUSTS 40 KT WILL PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE UDDFS AND LLWS OVER
AND EAST OF THE MTNS THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
830 AM...BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 18 KT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
PREDOMINANTLY WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS AND SWELL LESS THAN 5 FT
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR
BANNING.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...ALBRIGHT
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
811 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Winds remain rather robust across the region this morning. Mammoth
Airport gusting to 62 mph, nearly the same at Five Mile Flat in
Storey County, and earlier we had 120 mph along the Sierra Crest
near Tahoe. Latest HRRR guidance has winds peaking over next few
hours then gradually subsiding by late afternoon as flow aloft
turns NW, lessens, and pressure gradient relaxes.
I`ll extend the wind advisories for Lovelock/Fallon/Mono Co areas
until 2 PM. Will also post a Lake Wind Advisory for Tahoe until 8
PM due to ongoing strong winds (40-45 mph on buoys) with rough
waters likely through the day today. Winds along the Sierra Front
will see gusts 40-55 mph, mainly in the wind prone areas and
foothills, so not widespread enough to warrant an advisory. -Chris
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 333 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow showers will diminish this morning as the winter storm
departs the region. Gusty winds continue today but will diminish by
late afternoon and evening. Quieter weather will return this week as
high pressure builds across the West and provides drier and warmer
conditions to the region.
SHORT TERM...
The last push of moisture is currently working its way across the
Sierra Interstate 80 corridor with lighter snowfall to south over
Mono County. Snow levels remained high overnight which produced a
rain/snow mix near the Lake Tahoe elevation and limited snow
accumulation. Currently snow levels remain around 6500-7000 feet
through the Tahoe Basin and 5500-6000 feet farther north through
Lassen County. Still looking for a few additional inches of
accumulation mainly above 7000 feet through the morning, but the
bulk of the precipitation has already fallen and have cancelled
the Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories. Snow
levels will slowly fall through the morning which should return a
rain/snow mix at lake level.
Some lingering showers will prevail through the afternoon but
precipitation amounts will be light with little additional impacts
expected through the afternoon. Winds will remain breezy today as a
west gradient develops behind the storm today. Wind Advisories will
remain in place over Mono and Mineral Counties and also the western
Nevada Basin and Range this morning with diminishing winds by this
evening. Choppy and hazardous boating conditions are expected for
Pyramid Lake and have posted a Lake Wind Advisory through the
afternoon.
After this system passes, we will return to a quieter and drier
weather pattern as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the
eastern Pacific and west coast. High temperatures will warm a few
degrees above seasonal averages with upper 50s to low 60s possible
across western Nevada by mid-week. Overnight temperatures will be
chilly with freezing temperatures possible Tuesday and again
Wednesday morning. Lows in the 20s can be expected for Sierra
valleys through mid-week. Fuentes
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...
High pressure continues to develop Thursday with the ridge axis west
of the Sierra. Model simulations show the ridge axis shifting
eastward to over the Sierra by Friday or Saturday. This pattern will
likely provide dry conditions, near average temperatures and
generally light NE-E winds for western NV and the eastern Sierra
through Friday and possibly through Saturday as well. However,
forecast confidence is lower starting Saturday regarding the
evolution of the ridge. It`s possible the ridge will weaken and
shift eastward Saturday or Sunday, which could lead to increasing
moisture streaming off the Pacific along with some potential for
valley rain and mountain snow showers for the second half of the
weekend. JCM
AVIATION...
Strong wind gusts 60-80 kts will continue across Sierra ridges
through this morning before slowly diminishing this afternoon.
These conditions will create moderate to severe turbulence in the
lee of the Sierra today. Terminals in the eastern Sierra and
western NV should expect wind gusts 25-40 kts today with a
decreasing trend during the afternoon. There is a chance for
occasional stronger gusts 45-55 kts in Mono/Mineral counties
including KMMH mainly through the morning hours.
Precipitation has tapered off to showers but mountain obscuration
along with brief MVFR or possibly IFR conditions remain possible at
Sierra terminals through this morning. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail across the area by afternoon. JCM
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
evening for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon NVZ001-004.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
NVZ002.
CA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon CAZ073.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
CAZ072.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
436 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG
THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...AS THE FINAL IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS EXITS TO
THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT HAVE MOSTLY BEEN LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE OF
MONTEREY COUNTY. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN
PATCHY FOG WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
UNTIL MID MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AS A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TO FORM TONIGHT. WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ALSO DEVELOPING LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S FORECAST BY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
A FEW LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. DRY AND
BALMY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WEST COAST. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS DON`T AGREE PARTICULARLY
WELL ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL DURING THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MOST RAINFALL WILL MOVE
INLAND TO OUR NORTH AND THAT ONLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF GETTING WET.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 AM PDT MONDAY...THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGE IS SHOWING A MIX OF MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER
THE AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING THIS MORNING TO PREVENT ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
FROM FORMING. EXPECTING MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH CUMULUS
CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
SCT-BKN035 DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING WITH HEATING OF THE DAY
PRODUCING CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REACH 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS TO START THE DAY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO SCT-
BKN025 LATER THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8
TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 2:51 AM PDT MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AS COOL AIR FILLS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. AS THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
EXPECT MODERATE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT SUR.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
MODERATE SEAS WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES OCCURRING AT NEAR SHORE
REEFS AND SAND BARS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER SEAS WILL
DECREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
316 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG
THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...AS THE FINAL IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS EXITS TO
THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT HAVE MOSTLY BEEN LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE OF
MONTEREY COUNTY. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN
PATCHY FOG WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
UNTIL MID MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AS A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TO FORM TONIGHT. WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ALSO DEVELOPING LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S FORECAST BY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
A FEW LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. DRY AND
BALMY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WEST COAST. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS DONT AGREE PARTICULARLY
WELL ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL DURING THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MOST RAINFALL WILL MOVE
INLAND TO OUR NORTH AND THAT ONLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF GETTING WET.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:54 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS GRADUALLY INCREASING. PATCHY FOG PERSISTS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...WINDS BECOMING W LATE THIS EVENING THEN W-NW
OVERNIGHT. MVFR. SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE CIGS AND VSBYS FORECAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR. SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING LATE
TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE CIGS AND VSBYS FORECAST MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 2:51 AM PDT MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AS COOL AIR FILLS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. AS THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
EXPECT MODERATE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT SUR.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
MODERATE SEAS WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES OCCURRING AT NEAR SHORE
REEFS AND SAND BARS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER SEAS WILL
DECREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
PULLED BACK POPS FARTHER NORTH INTO MIDDAY BASED ON TRENDS WITH
SHORTWAVE THOUGH OVERALL THOUGHT ON POSSIBLE THREATS HAS NOT
CHANGED AND SPC DID EXTEND THE MARGINAL RISK /5 PERCENT WIND...5
PERCENT HAIL/ INTO MUCH OF NORTH GA. MAIN COLD CORE AND TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL TO THE WEST THOUGH INITIAL FRONT WAVE OF DEVELOPMENT
HAS HAD A WANING TREND. RAP PROGGED MLCAPE STILL INDICATES NOSE OF
500 J/KG ADVECTING NE AHEAD OF WAVE SO EXPECTING SOME INITIATION
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH FAIRLY AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE IS PRECEDING
THE WAVE WHICH COULD FURTHER SUPPRESS DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION.
CANNOT RULE OUT FOCI FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL GA WHERE MORNING CLOUD DECK EDGES COULD ENHANCE SFC
BAROCLINITY...BUT WOULD BE LESS JUXTAPOSED WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SO
HAVE STILL KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND...AND THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA TOWARD NORTH
GEORGIA THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SHORT
WAVE DRIVING THESE STORMS AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...AND INSTABILITY
REMAINS MODEST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AREA OF BETTER MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE CAROLINAS AND LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR IS MODERATE AT BEST. A FEW STRONG STORMS WOULD NOT BE
IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...
BUT SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW. CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY
EXITS NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND MILD AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
20
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER THEY DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTION AFTER WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS BRINGS AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP IT MOSTLY DRY. THE FRONT STALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHCENTRAL GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST. HOWEVER ALL MODELS DIFFER
IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN MOST AREAS BY 18Z. WINDS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
4KT OR LESS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7-10KT W/ GUSTS 15-20KT BY 14-16Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. BETTER CHANCES REMAIN NORTH OF
THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER THE ATLANTA METRO TAF SITES AND KAHN MAY SEE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AREA BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 78 54 83 58 / 40 30 0 0
ATLANTA 76 56 82 59 / 20 10 0 5
BLAIRSVILLE 70 50 78 52 / 60 30 0 5
CARTERSVILLE 75 52 83 55 / 50 10 0 10
COLUMBUS 81 56 84 57 / 10 5 0 5
GAINESVILLE 73 53 80 57 / 50 30 0 5
MACON 81 55 86 58 / 10 5 0 0
ROME 74 51 83 55 / 50 10 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 77 52 84 57 / 20 10 0 5
VIDALIA 84 60 85 60 / 10 5 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1010 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME OF THESE
COULD BE SEVERE. A FEW FRONTS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN MID
WEEK ON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL COOL TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ARKANSAS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA.
THE UPPER LOW /AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...AND SUFFICIENT FORCING WITH
THE LOWS SHOULD PROVIDE RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
TODAY PERIOD.
WILL GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS TODAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ONLY WENT HIGH
CHANCE POPS./12
TRIED TO TIME HOURLY POPS BASED ON A BLEND OF HI RES MODEL
FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THOUGH AS
SYSTEM MOVES IN.
USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ON SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS
USED.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR EAST EARLY TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
DRY NIGHT WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARM AND MOIST AIR.
HOWEVER FORCING REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. THUS
KEPT MOST AREAS DRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ONLY ALLOWING FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER JET MOVES IN ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH. THIS FORCING SHOULD CREATE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS ILLINOIS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
GOOD SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...DURING THIS TIME
INSTABILITY WILL START TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THUS FEEL THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST OF A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS GOOD...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF
SEVERE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS...WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. MOST FORCING EXITS
BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THEN.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT A WEAK UPPER WAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HOWEVER...WENT WARMER THAN THE BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY WITH
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON WEEKEND SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER.
THE LONG TERM SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR SEASONABLE BY FRIDAY PER
ACCEPTED THE REGIONAL BLEND. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH AND MARGINAL MOISTURE.
THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN UPPER
WEEKEND TROUGH. THE GFS MOVES IT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE ECMWF SUNDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY...THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL KICK UP A WAVE ALONG THE THE STALLED GULF STATES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BRING THAT SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH
WAVES KICKED OUT BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES
BACK TO AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
REST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING ON SUNDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF A PLAINS
RIDGE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
IS REFLECTED WELL WITH THE REGIONAL BLEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 141500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPANDING NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER WABASH
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAIN AND
THUNDER CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
MARGINALLY VFR SO FAR THIS MORNING BUT AS THE RAIN EXPANDS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE
BEEN MVFR OR BETTER THE BULK OF THE TIME. THE SHOWERS WERE MOVING IN
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE HRRR HAD THEM COMING IN...AND THEY WERE
ALSO NOT QUITE AS EXPANSIVE AS EXPECTED. SO...WILL ONLY START WITH
VCSH AND THEN A 4 HOUR SHOWER TEMPO GROUP UNTIL THE SHOWERS MOVE OUT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LAMP MOS AND SREF SUGGEST THERE COULD BE AT LEAST TEMPO OR WORSE
FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...SHOULD SEE A
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IS
NOT GREAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE IMPROVEMENT TREND IS GOOD.
COULD ALSO SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SO...WILL CHANGE VCSH TO VCTS AFTER 16Z AT BMG AND HUF
AND AFTER 17Z AT IND AND LAF. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
21Z-23Z.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN BECOME LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
646 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME OF THESE
COULD BE SEVERE. A FEW FRONTS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN MID
WEEK ON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL COOL TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ARKANSAS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA.
THE UPPER LOW /AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...AND SUFFICIENT FORCING WITH
THE LOWS SHOULD PROVIDE RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
TODAY PERIOD.
WILL GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS TODAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ONLY WENT HIGH
CHANCE POPS.
TRIED TO TIME HOURLY POPS BASED ON A BLEND OF HI RES MODEL
FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THOUGH AS
SYSTEM MOVES IN.
USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ON SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS
USED.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR EAST EARLY TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
DRY NIGHT WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARM AND MOIST AIR.
HOWEVER FORCING REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. THUS
KEPT MOST AREAS DRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ONLY ALLOWING FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER JET MOVES IN ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH. THIS FORCING SHOULD CREATE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS ILLINOIS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
GOOD SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...DURING THIS TIME
INSTABILITY WILL START TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THUS FEEL THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST OF A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS GOOD...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF
SEVERE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS...WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. MOST FORCING EXITS
BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THEN.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT A WEAK UPPER WAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HOWEVER...WENT WARMER THAN THE BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY WITH
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON WEEKEND SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER.
THE LONG TERM SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR SEASONABLE BY FRIDAY PER
ACCEPTED THE REGIONAL BLEND. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH AND MARGINAL MOISTURE.
THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN UPPER
WEEKEND TROUGH. THE GFS MOVES IT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE ECMWF SUNDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY...THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL KICK UP A WAVE ALONG THE THE STALLED GULF STATES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BRING THAT SYSTEM NORTHEAST TO THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH
WAVES KICKED OUT BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES
BACK TO AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
REST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING ON SUNDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF A PLAINS
RIDGE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
IS REFLECTED WELL WITH THE REGIONAL BLEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST MON MAR 14 2016
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE
BEEN MVFR OR BETTER THE BULK OF THE TIME. THE SHOWERS WERE MOVING IN
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE HRRR HAD THEM COMING IN...AND THEY WERE
ALSO NOT QUITE AS EXPANSIVE AS EXPECTED. SO...WILL ONLY START WITH
VCSH AND THEN A 4 HOUR SHOWER TEMPO GROUP UNTIL THE SHOWERS MOVE OUT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LAMP MOS AND SREF SUGGEST THERE COULD BE AT LEAST TEMPO OR WORSE
FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...SHOULD SEE A
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IS
NOT GREAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE IMPROVEMENT TREND IS GOOD.
COULD ALSO SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SO...WILL CHANGE VCSH TO VCTS AFTER 16Z AT BMG AND HUF
AND AFTER 17Z AT IND AND LAF. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
21Z-23Z.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN BECOME LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1017 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE. BASED ON AVAILABLE
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE LINGERING LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE HANDLED
WITH AN SPS OVER THE NEXT 90 MINUTES.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST MAINLY IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
IMMEDIATE TRENDS BASED ON RADAR AND THE RAP SUGGEST SHOWERS
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS INDICATE VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY SINCE SUNRISE ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
AND INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THUS THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. TRENDS
OVER THE PAST HOUR SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
MORNING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS PERSISTED FROM MONMOUTH...TO
GENESEO AND PRINCETON. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
LOW 40S IN THE FREEPORT AREA...TO THE LOW 50S AROUND KEOKUK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE DENSE FOG
THIS MORNING...AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TONIGHT.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AM THINKING THIS WILL COVER THE AREAS WITH
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR HENRY/BUREAU/PUTNAM COUNTIES ONCE THE RAIN DIMINISHES.
OTHER THAN THE LINGERING RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
MORNING...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST TODAY...HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE...UPPER
50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY OTHERWISE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
TUESDAY...SPC CONTINUES WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND HAS EXPANDED IT A TAD TO THE WEST TO
INCLUDE THE QUAD CITIES AREA AND CLOSER TO DUBUQUE. ALL MODES OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE.
CURRENTLY WATER VAPOR MOVIE LOOPS INDICATED A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A POWERFUL 130 KNOT 300 HPA JET
STILL WEST OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT ENTERS NORTHERN CA...
INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL STILL BE DIGGING. SOME CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN NORTHERN CA AND IN IDAHO.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST OMINOUS WITH A DEEPER
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS WE GET UNDER THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO DEEPEN THIS
WILL HANG UP THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A DECENT
TRANSPORT OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE DVN CWA...AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT THE MS RIVER AND ON ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THE FRONT WILL BE
ARRIVING AT PEAK HEATING AND WITH A VERY COLD POCKET ALOFT THIS WILL
STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES CONSIDERABLY. MOST OF THE MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPES OF 2000 J/KG AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE
STRENGTHENING TO 50-60 KNOTS. THIS WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL
TORNADOES. LOOKING AT HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM IS THE ECMWF ALSO SEEMS
THE MOST PLAUSIBLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S FROM
ABOUT THE MS RIVER ON EAST.
THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN ARE WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM AND MUCH FASTER WITH
THE COLD FRONT...SUGGESTING THE SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LESS OF A
THREAT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO OUR FAR EASTERN CWA AND
QUICKLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PATTERN CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID
MARCH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE DETAILS REGARDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP WITH
TIMING/STRENGTH AND PRECIPITATION TYPES.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BUT KMLI. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
REDEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING...MAINLY AT KCID/KDBQ.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
744 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH INTO THE WRN CONUS
AND A RIDGE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO HUDSON BAY RESULTING IN SW FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. 700-500 MB FGEN/DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH NRN LOWER MI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTO NW WI HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH NW TO
NEAR IWD.
TODAY...EXPECT THE RAIN OVER THE EAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING AS THE NRN LOWER MI SHRTWV LIFTS THROUGH NRN
LAKE HURON. ANY RAIN OVER THE WEST SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE AS WEAK
MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED INSOLATION IN THE MILD AIRMASS...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REBOUND
INTO MID TO UPPER 40S OVER EAST HALF TO THE MID 50S OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST.
TONIGHT...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BUT REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. WITH WEAK ADVECTION AND LINGERING
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...FROM THE LOW 30S EAST TO AROUND 40 OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
...RAIN AMOUNTS AND/OR SNOW AMOUNTS TUE NIGHT INTO WED IS MAIN
CONCERN...
STRONG JET CORE SURGING ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NEV HELPS DIG LARGE
TROUGH ALOFT WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUE AFTN. AT
THE SAME TIME...TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FRONT PORTION OF
THE TROUGH MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH TWO SHORTWAVES...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE AND TROUGH ENDS UP MORE COMPLEX. MAIN SFC LOW TRACKS OVER
NORTHERN MN FIRST PART OF TUE...BUT BY TUE AFTN AND TUE EVENING FOCUS
SHIFTS TO WI AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY TRACKS FM IOWA TO
LOWER MICHIGAN. MAY SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PUSH
SOME SHOWERS OVER WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN TUE...BUT MAIN RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE ON TUE NIGHT. LIFT FM PVA/STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE FM H85 LOW TIED INTO THETA-E
RIDGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORTS SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT LIFTING STEADILY NORTHWARD ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN. THOUGH PWATS ARE OVER 0.75 INCHES WHICH IS PUSHING 250-275
PCT OF NORMAL...THINK THE NAM IS ON THE WETTER SIDE OF MODELS
SHOWING QPF OVER 2 INCHES INTO WED OVER THE KEWEENAW. 1+ INCH
AMOUNTS SEEM LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN CWA CLOSER TO INFLUENCE
OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK DIVERGENCE.
WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN AND TEMPS STAYING ABOVE FREEZING EARLY THIS
WEEK...LIKELY WILL SEE SOME RESPONSE IN RIVERS DUE TO THE RAIN/SNOW
MELT. COOLER TEMPS SHOULD SLOW ANY RESPONSE MID-LATE WEEK. RECENT
REPORTS AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS OF SNOW DEPTH/SWE INDICATE SNOW DEPTHS
AROUND 20 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON KEWEENAW SOUTH OF HOUGHTON
AND ACROSS THE MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES. SWE IN THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY 4-6 INCHES. DO HAVE SOME
SMALLER/QUICKER RESPONDING BASINS IN THESE AREAS...INCLUDING THE
BLACK RIVER AND TRAP ROCK RIVER. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER RAIN
TUE NIGHT AND THE SNOW MELT...WILL HIGHLIGHT RISES IN RIVERS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
OVERALL THE GENERAL THEME OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THOUGH
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING REMAIN WITH BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED /ECMWF REMAINS ON THE SLOWER END OF MODELS/.
ADDED MENTION OF TSRA SCNTRL INTO EAST CWA TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS THAT AREA IS ON NORTH EDGE OF RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ALSO WITHIN STRONGEST H925-H85
THETA-E ADVECTION. SI/S ALSO FALL TOWARD ZERO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO BE TRYING TO ADVECT IN REMNANTS OF CLUSTERS OF TSRA THAT SHOULD
FORM UPSTREAM OVER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLIER IN THE DAY
ON TUE. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK SHOWS GENERAL TSRA OVER SCNTRL SO IT
MATCHES THAT AS WELL. ALSO PUT FOG INTO FORECAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. RAIN OVER THE MELTING SNOW SHOULD SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY
DURING ANY LONGER LULLS IN THE SHRA.
PTYPE STILL A BIGGER CONCERN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST. NAM APPEARS TOO COLD WITH BLYR TEMPS AND ITS SWITCH OVER
TO SNOW FOR KEWEENAW ON TUE NIGHT. WITH SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIP AND EAST WINDS BRINGING IN WARMER AIR SFC-H85...FOLLOWED MORE
MODERATE GFS IDEA WHICH SHOWS SUB 1KFT LAYER STAYING WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN UNTIL LATER WED MORNING INTO WED AFTN AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD SWITCH RAIN TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN
ALSO SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL CWA TO THE
WEST OF MARQUETTE WED AFTN. DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AS SFC LOW MOVES
EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN WED EVENING...NE COOL/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. PRETTY IKELY THAT NW
AND NCNTRL CWA WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW WED/WED NIGHT AND INTO THU
BEFORE THE SYSTEM DIMINISHES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO BUILDS
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL WINDS STAY N/NE BUT WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND H9-H85 TEMPS ONLY DOWN TO -7C TO -9C...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. COULD SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORK
THOUGH IN AN OVERALL TROUGHING ALOFT PATTERN SO THAT COULD BRING
CHANCE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON THU OVER THE WEST. STILL LOOKS LIKE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW NORTH OF HOUGHTON AND HANCOCK COULD END
UP WITH AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SLUSHY SNOW WED INTO WED NIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH SETTLING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK
ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST INTO FRI SO THAT WILL KEEP NORTHERN UPR
MICHIGAN COOLER WITH NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THU INTO FRI THOUGH. HIGH CROSSES FRI NIGHT SO LOWERED MINS
TOWARD AT LEAST CLIMO /TEENS INLAND/. SMALL CHANCES FOR MAINLY SNOW
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE COOLER PATTERN HANGS ON. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF
AND GFS FLIPPED ON HOW COLD IT MAY GET EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ECMWF
NOW COLDER. EVENTUALLY HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. AS A RESULT
TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK SHOULD PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS AT
KIWD AND KCMX TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING. SINCE SAW WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SEE A LIGHT UPSLOPE SE FLOW...EXPECT FOG
WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EARLY TODAY. WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING
AND WEAK HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE AREA...CIGS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT SAW THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD OR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUE AT KSAW WITH
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SE FLOW DEVELOPING. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KCMX AND KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY WHERE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER N CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
25 KNOTS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1030 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TODAY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT AND
THE ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH THE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS AND REMOVED SHOWERS
MENTIONED THROUGH TODAY. THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
PUSHES EAST BETTER TOP DOWN MOISTENING MAY OCCUR FOR PRECIPITATION
TO REACH THE GROUND. TODAY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM CREATE A
FIRE HAZARD AS GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AREA OF CLOUDS/SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS UTAH AND
IDAHO SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MIXING HEIGHTS TO 10KFT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN
NEBRASKA. WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SFC WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE ANYTHING STRONGER EXCEPT THE MOSGUIDE. NONETHELESS
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENT OFTEN PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. THE RAP SUGGESTS ELEVATED CAPE LESS THAN 200 J/KG WHICH
COULD PERHAPS LIMIT PRECIPE LOADING AND THE WIND GUSTS. HIGHS IN THE
70S ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IGNORES THE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND RESPECTS THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS EVENING.
SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WITH
THE BLACK HILLS CONVERGENCE OPERATING. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
WIND AND DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ENHANCED MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
IS EVIDENT WITH ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AT 290K... INVERTED V PROFILES
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS... AND FALLING DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
DEEP MIXING TO 700HPA TUESDAY AND 650HPA WEDNESDAY NOTED IN GFS AND
NAM SOUNDINGS WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA ALSO
RESULTS IN A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT... FURTHER AIDING IN DRY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF USING THE DRIEST GUIDANCE...
MAINLY MAV... AND FURTHER REDUCED DEW POINTS TO TAKE IN ACCOUNT CAA
AND DOWNSLOPE. DESPITE COOLER HIGHS... DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MIN RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAKE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OVERALL... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN MIXED SUN/CLOUDS... STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW... AND
850HPA TEMPS AROUND 3C AT 18-00Z BOTH DAYS. A WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY... BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
FORCING REMAIN NORTH OF THE SDAK BORDER... SO REMOVED SCHC POPS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HWY 20.
LONG RANGE...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... GFS AND EURO ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY AND
A 500HPA LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY... BUT DIFFERENCES GROW OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE LOW MERGING WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVING EAST
QUICKLY... ALLOWING 850HPA TEMPS TO RECOVER TO 10C ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO KEEPS THE LOW PARKED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES IT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY... MAKING FOR A MUCH SLOWER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
AND POSSIBLY WETTER WEEKEND FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. A WEAK COOL FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AREA THURSDAY... WHICH MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP NEAR
THE PINE RIDGE. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE AS LOW AS 800HPA ALONG
WITH SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP... ALBEIT LIGHT... FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ARRIVES FRIDAY AS A
LEESIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW.
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FRIDAY MORNING... BUT LIFT IS
RATHER WEAK... ESPECIALLY IN THE DGZ. LEFT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY
DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTL ROCKIES MOVES EAST TODAY AND
AFFECTS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED BUT CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS...NEAR 40KT.
SHOWER COVERAGE IS ISOLATED WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY BUT BECOMES
SCATTERED EAST OF 83 TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR IN ISOLATED -RW/-SHSN
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN SHERIDAN COUNTY TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
THE BEST GUESS USING THE HRRR...RAP AND HRRREXP MODELS IS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT RH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN FRENCHMAN BASIN
FIRE ZONE. THE ARW AND NMM MODELS WERE A BIT DRIER.
ISOLATED DRY TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY SPARK A FEW FIRES WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTN. THE LIGHTENING ACTIVITY LEVEL IS 3. ALL OF
THIS SUGGESTS THERE IS GOOD RANGE FIRE POTENTIAL BUT LESS THAN THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD.
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR WILD FIRE DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA IS OF GREATEST
CONCERN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST AND HUMIDITY LOWEST.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS AREA.
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT. ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TUESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KECK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AREA OF CLOUDS/SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS UTAH AND
IDAHO SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MIXING HEIGHTS TO 10KFT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN
NEBRASKA. WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SFC WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE ANYTHING STRONGER EXCEPT THE MOSGUIDE. NONETHELESS
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENT OFTEN PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. THE RAP SUGGESTS ELEVATED CAPE LESS THAN 200 J/KG WHICH
COULD PERHAPS LIMIT PRECIPE LOADING AND THE WIND GUSTS. HIGHS IN THE
70S ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IGNORES THE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND RESPECTS THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS EVENING.
SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WITH
THE BLACK HILLS CONVERGENCE OPERATING. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
WIND AND DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ENHANCED MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
IS EVIDENT WITH ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AT 290K... INVERTED V PROFILES
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS... AND FALLING DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
DEEP MIXING TO 700HPA TUESDAY AND 650HPA WEDNESDAY NOTED IN GFS AND
NAM SOUNDINGS WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA ALSO
RESULTS IN A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT... FURTHER AIDING IN DRY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF USING THE DRIEST GUIDANCE...
MAINLY MAV... AND FURTHER REDUCED DEW POINTS TO TAKE IN ACCOUNT CAA
AND DOWNSLOPE. DESPITE COOLER HIGHS... DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MIN RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAKE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OVERALL... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN MIXED SUN/CLOUDS... STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW... AND
850HPA TEMPS AROUND 3C AT 18-00Z BOTH DAYS. A WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY... BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
FORCING REMAIN NORTH OF THE SDAK BORDER... SO REMOVED SCHC POPS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HWY 20.
LONG RANGE...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... GFS AND EURO ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY AND
A 500HPA LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY... BUT DIFFERENCES GROW OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE LOW MERGING WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVING EAST
QUICKLY... ALLOWING 850HPA TEMPS TO RECOVER TO 10C ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO KEEPS THE LOW PARKED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES IT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY... MAKING FOR A MUCH SLOWER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
AND POSSIBLY WETTER WEEKEND FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. A WEAK COOL FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AREA THURSDAY... WHICH MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP NEAR
THE PINE RIDGE. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE AS LOW AS 800HPA ALONG
WITH SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP... ALBEIT LIGHT... FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ARRIVES FRIDAY AS A
LEESIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW.
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FRIDAY MORNING... BUT LIFT IS
RATHER WEAK... ESPECIALLY IN THE DGZ. LEFT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY
DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTL ROCKIES MOVES EAST TODAY AND
AFFECTS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED BUT CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS...NEAR 40KT.
SHOWER COVERAGE IS ISOLATED WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY BUT BECOMES
SCATTERED EAST OF 83 TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR IN ISOLATED -RW/-SHSN
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN SHERIDAN COUNTY TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
THE BEST GUESS USING THE HRRR...RAP AND HRRREXP MODELS IS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT RH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN FRENCHMAN BASIN
FIRE ZONE. THE ARW AND NMM MODELS WERE A BIT DRIER.
ISOLATED DRY TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY SPARK A FEW FIRES WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTN. THE LIGHTENING ACTIVITY LEVEL IS 3. ALL OF
THIS SUGGESTS THERE IS GOOD RANGE FIRE POTENTIAL BUT LESS THAN THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD.
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR WILD FIRE DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA IS OF GREATEST
CONCERN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST AND HUMIDITY LOWEST.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS AREA.
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT. ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TUESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
813 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY BRINGING CONTINUED STRONG WINDS TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT AND LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEVADA. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
&&
.UPDATE...BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP AND LATEST MODEL DATA...MUCH OF
THE CWA WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER MUCH OF TODAY. I
UPDATED SKY GRIDS FOR TODAY TO GENERALLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
LATEST SOUNDING DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE I DO NOT EXPECT QUITE AS
MUCH WARMING FOR A COUPLE LOCATIONS AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. I
TWEAKED HIGHS TODAY DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR LAS VEGAS.
&&
.AVIATION....FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY. TYPICAL NIGHT TIME DRAINAGE WINDS WILL KICK IN THIS EVENING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH TODAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE.
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE
SIERRA. THERE COULD BE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST FROM LAS VEGAS WEST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. AREAS AROUND LAS VEGAS AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
219 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY RESULTING
IN CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A HIGH WIND
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES AS THE JET STREAM
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE 500MB FLOW MOVES PERPENDICULAR
ACROSS THE SIERRA. LOCAL MODELS SHOW A CONTINUING DOWNSLOPE
SIGNATURE THAT LASTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE OWENS VALLEY AND MOJAVE DESERT HAS BEEN VERIFYING OVERNIGHT AND
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS TODAY. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN TODAY IS
ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE
MODELS SHOW DECENT WEST WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE AND THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN THE ADVISORY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOOKING AT ABOUT 5
OR 6 DEGREES WARMER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND A FEW FAVORED AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE BREEZY
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, TEMPERATURES LOOK
SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY HOWEVER, THE ECS MOS IS 2-4 DEGREES COOLER
TODAY THAN THE MET/MAV AND 5-6 DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY. DO TO THE
DIFFERENCES, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE INHERITED FORECAST AND THE TWO
BEST MODEL PERFORMERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RIDGING EXPANDS OFF THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO DRY AND MILD TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY, DIVING
DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE, MORE OVER NORTHEAST/EASTERN UTAH
ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA JUST A BIT, CREATING LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. WOULD EXPECT THE STRONGEST NORTH WINDS TO BE ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO
OUR EAST SUNDAY, MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP, WITH
SURFACE WINDS STARTING TO BECOME A BIT BREEZY. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR WEATHER-RELATED
DAMAGE ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE................PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALMEN
LONG TERM.............PADDOCK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
811 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Winds remain rather robust across the region this morning. Mammoth
Airport gusting to 62 mph, nearly the same at Five Mile Flat in
Storey County, and earlier we had 120 mph along the Sierra Crest
near Tahoe. Latest HRRR guidance has winds peaking over next few
hours then gradually subsiding by late afternoon as flow aloft
turns NW, lessens, and pressure gradient relaxes.
I`ll extend the wind advisories for Lovelock/Fallon/Mono Co areas
until 2 PM. Will also post a Lake Wind Advisory for Tahoe until 8
PM due to ongoing strong winds (40-45 mph on buoys) with rough
waters likely through the day today. Winds along the Sierra Front
will see gusts 40-55 mph, mainly in the wind prone areas and
foothills, so not widespread enough to warrant an advisory. -Chris
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 333 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow showers will diminish this morning as the winter storm
departs the region. Gusty winds continue today but will diminish by
late afternoon and evening. Quieter weather will return this week as
high pressure builds across the West and provides drier and warmer
conditions to the region.
SHORT TERM...
The last push of moisture is currently working its way across the
Sierra Interstate 80 corridor with lighter snowfall to south over
Mono County. Snow levels remained high overnight which produced a
rain/snow mix near the Lake Tahoe elevation and limited snow
accumulation. Currently snow levels remain around 6500-7000 feet
through the Tahoe Basin and 5500-6000 feet farther north through
Lassen County. Still looking for a few additional inches of
accumulation mainly above 7000 feet through the morning, but the
bulk of the precipitation has already fallen and have cancelled
the Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories. Snow
levels will slowly fall through the morning which should return a
rain/snow mix at lake level.
Some lingering showers will prevail through the afternoon but
precipitation amounts will be light with little additional impacts
expected through the afternoon. Winds will remain breezy today as a
west gradient develops behind the storm today. Wind Advisories will
remain in place over Mono and Mineral Counties and also the western
Nevada Basin and Range this morning with diminishing winds by this
evening. Choppy and hazardous boating conditions are expected for
Pyramid Lake and have posted a Lake Wind Advisory through the
afternoon.
After this system passes, we will return to a quieter and drier
weather pattern as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the
eastern Pacific and west coast. High temperatures will warm a few
degrees above seasonal averages with upper 50s to low 60s possible
across western Nevada by mid-week. Overnight temperatures will be
chilly with freezing temperatures possible Tuesday and again
Wednesday morning. Lows in the 20s can be expected for Sierra
valleys through mid-week. Fuentes
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...
High pressure continues to develop Thursday with the ridge axis west
of the Sierra. Model simulations show the ridge axis shifting
eastward to over the Sierra by Friday or Saturday. This pattern will
likely provide dry conditions, near average temperatures and
generally light NE-E winds for western NV and the eastern Sierra
through Friday and possibly through Saturday as well. However,
forecast confidence is lower starting Saturday regarding the
evolution of the ridge. It`s possible the ridge will weaken and
shift eastward Saturday or Sunday, which could lead to increasing
moisture streaming off the Pacific along with some potential for
valley rain and mountain snow showers for the second half of the
weekend. JCM
AVIATION...
Strong wind gusts 60-80 kts will continue across Sierra ridges
through this morning before slowly diminishing this afternoon.
These conditions will create moderate to severe turbulence in the
lee of the Sierra today. Terminals in the eastern Sierra and
western NV should expect wind gusts 25-40 kts today with a
decreasing trend during the afternoon. There is a chance for
occasional stronger gusts 45-55 kts in Mono/Mineral counties
including KMMH mainly through the morning hours.
Precipitation has tapered off to showers but mountain obscuration
along with brief MVFR or possibly IFR conditions remain possible at
Sierra terminals through this morning. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail across the area by afternoon. JCM
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
evening for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon NVZ001-004.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
NVZ002.
CA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon CAZ073.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
CAZ072.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1027 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN SPOTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, AS WELL AS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH MAINLY RAIN
FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MID MARCH THOUGH,
WITH DAILY DEPARTURES RUNNING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1027 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED HOURLY POPS TO
REFLECT LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HRRR OUTPUT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON EVOLUTION OF LIGHT PCPN ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO OUR
AREA TODAY SO LEANED TOWARDS IT`S IDEA ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES
WERE ADJUSTED BASED OFF HOURLY TRENDS, WHERE IN PLACES IT`S
RUNNING COOLER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS (SLV) WHILE ELSEWHERE WE`VE
ALREADY REACHED FORECAST MAXIMA IN MANY SPOTS SO RAISED VALUES
THERE A BIT. A LIGHT ICING THREAT ACROSS ELEVATED TERRAIN OF
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN VT STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT OVERALL THREAT REMAINS MINIMAL BELOW 1000
FEET IN THESE AREAS AS TEMPERATURES CREEP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 743 AM EDT MONDAY...COLD SFC RIDGE ACROSS
ERN NEW ENGLAND AND ASSOCIATED DRY PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S) WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF LIGHT
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONTAL PCPN BAND SHIFTS SLOWLY
NEWD FROM NY/PA TODAY. NEWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONTAL BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER SLOW WITH STRONG DEFORMATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM SRN LOWER MICHIGAN ESEWD ACROSS OH/PA PER WV IMAGERY. IT
APPEARS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THAT ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
AROUND 13Z FOR THE SRN HALF OF ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY WARMING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS (42F
AT KSLK AT 11Z)...THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH MIXED PCPN ACROSS NRN
NY...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT SUMMIT LEVEL.
PRECIPITATION FINALLY REACHES CENTRAL/ERN VT AROUND 18-19Z. ALL
RAIN EXPECTED WEST OF THE GREENS WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING ONGOING
AND TEMPS UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S BY THE TIME PRECIP ARRIVES. EAST OF
THE GREENS...IT APPEARS A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET IS LIKELY
INITIALLY...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AFTER
SUNSET...WITH 825MB WARM LAYER OF +3 TO +4C NOTED AT 23Z NAM
SOUNDING FOR MPV. BELOW THAT LEVEL...COLD LAYER IS
MAINTAINED...MAINLY FOR SURFACE ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 1-3KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ERN VT. GIVEN LACK OF COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS/WARM
PAVEMENT TEMPS...NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH WIDESPREAD ICING
(ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY)...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY (AOB 1") FOLLOWED BY A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER SUNSET FOR ELEVATIONS
1-3KFT FROM MARSHFIELD TO SUTTON AND ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY VT. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED TRAVEL CONCERNS IS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AOA 1000FT...AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
NERN VT FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY.
INCREASING P-GRADIENT BRINGS SOME GUSTY SELY WINDS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND ALONG THE
WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS (30-40 MPH LATE MORNING THRU AFTN).
ALREADY SEEING SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS IN 11Z OBS...WITH TEMP
LOCALLY 38F AT RUT AND 45F AT STAR LAKE NY, WHILE GENERALLY IN
THE MID- UPR 20S ELSEWHERE WHERE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FOR NOW.
DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS MAY HOLD DOWN OVERALL RAINFALL AMTS SLIGHTLY
IN THESE AREAS. FORECAST PRECIPITATION TODAY THRU TONIGHT RANGES
FROM 0.15-0.3" MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALLY 0.25-0.40" ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND ERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
(ORANGE/WINDSOR COUNTIES) WITH LOCALIZED UPSLOPE EFFECTS. HIGH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S TODAY...EXCEPT AROUND
45F WRN RUTLAND COUNTY AND MID 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WILL SEE NARROW ZONES OF HIGHS NEAR 32-34F MARSHFIELD TO SUTTON
AND ACROSS THE 1-2KFT ELEVATIONAL BAND IN MOST OF THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WHERE ANY ICING WOULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
MAIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PASSES TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD. WILL STILL SEE SOME SPOTTY
RAIN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ABOVE 1KFT
TONIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
HRS. LOWS TEMPERATURES MAINLY LOW-MID 30S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVENTING MUCH OF A DECREASING IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT MONDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THUS MOST
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD IMPACT OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MORE SHOWERS. AXIS OF
WARMER 925/850 MB TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THUS LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
TUESDAY AND IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT MONDAY...AREA REMAINS IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THUS STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL NOT
BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A COOLING TREND TAKING
PLACE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN TAKES PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA. COULD SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DOES NOT MOVE IN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW TO KEEP MORE COLDER AIR IN OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO SOME SNOW.
AGAIN...WAY OUT IN TIME BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR THRU 14Z WITH JUST THICKENING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THEN, MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOCALIZED LIGHT RA/IP AT MPV MAINLY
AFTER 18Z. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF (1-3 HR) OPERATIONAL IMPACT DUE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION AT MPV...BUT PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE. WILL ALSO
SEE INCREASING SELY WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT AT BTV AND
AROUND 30KT AT RUT. LOCALLY ENE FLOW AT KMSS AROUND 10 KTS. CONTINUED
OVERCAST TONIGHT...BUT TRENDING VFR AT BTV/SLK/PBG/MSS...WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR STILL POSSIBLE FOR MPV AND AT TIMES FOR RUT.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CEILINGS MUCH OF TUESDAY DAYLIGHT HRS...THEN
TRENDING BACK TOWARD MVFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. ELONGATED
UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS ADDITIONAL -SHRA
FOR WEDNESDAY. TRENDING MAINLY VFR WED NGT ONWARD.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR VTZ003-004-007.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
945 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
MANY AREAS FROM VALLEY EAST STILL SHOWING VSBY AT A 1/4 MILE OR
BLO SO HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO NOON FROM IMMEDIATE
VALLEY EASTWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE. SITES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG SUCH AS GRAFTON AND VALLEY CITY HAD IMPROVED TO MORE THAN
6 MILES VISIBILITY EARLIER...BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE GONE BACK DOWN
AGAIN. DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACCORDING TO WEB CAMS AND
OBS SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 15Z AT
LEAST WITH NO CHANGES TO THE COUNTY CONFIGURATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
CLOUD COVER TODAY AND PRECIP MOVING IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL
BE THE MAIN PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN EDGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING. MAY
TRIM OFF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
6 TO 7 AM UPDATE THIS MORNING...EXACTLY HOW MANY TO BE DETERMINED.
THE RAP KEEPS HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM IS A BIT FASTER
IN DRYING THINGS OUT. DID NOT GO QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE
RAP...BUT HAVE SOME CLOUDS HANGING OUT A BIT LONGER TODAY...AND
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY. DO THINK WE WILL
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AND WITH 925MB TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOW
TEENS...UPPER 50S TO SOME MID 60S IN THE FAR WEST WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING OFF OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AND INTO THE CWA. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND
BY THIS EVENING AND MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY SETTING UP JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER BY TOMORROW
MORNING. MANY OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE FAIRLY HEALTHY QPF
VALUES...SO SOME DECENT RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY. WITH NEGATIVE
SHOWALTERS FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION...BUT THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE RAIN. THINK
THAT SEVERAL TENTHS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HALF AN INCH BY MORNING
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS/SFC BOUNDARY STALLS OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA...MOST LIKELY NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SET UP OF THE SYSTEM AND
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. THE NAM HAS OVER AN INCH OF QPF
JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER WHILE THE GFS IS MOSTLY OUT OF THE CWA
BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECWMF AS ALSO BEEN TRENDING A BIT FURTHER
EAST WITH THE PRECIP BAND SET UP. GEFS PLUMES ARE STILL SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AND QPF MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BUT LOWERED THEM SOMEWHAT IN THE WEST AS THERE SEEMS TO
BE AN EASTWARD TREND. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL START THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEP US IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER THE REGION AS A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS TWO SFC LOWS CENTERS...WITH
ONE OVER CANADA AND THE OTHER OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MODELS DIG THE CANADIAN LOW SOUTHWARD. NOT A LOT OF
CERTAINTY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
COMING IN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. A FEW INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS NOTHING
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS SIMPLE. THE TEMPS WILL BE CONTINUING DOWNWARD
TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INITIAL UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION...WITH AN ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PATTERN WILL SHIFT
TO A WEST COAST RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH SET UP...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
POOR VIS CONTINUES AT ALL BUT KDVL...AND THAT VERY LOW IFR TREND
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VIS DURING THE 14 TO 17Z TIME FRAME...WITH
STRATUS CLOUDS HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER IN THE EAST. THINK
THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE TAF
SITES GOING RIGHT BACK IN THE SOUP AFTER SUNSET...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SOME PRECIP MOVING IN. FOR
NOW HAVE VIS GOING DOWN TO THE 3-5SM RANGE WITH BR IN THE EVENING
AND THEN -RA LATER IN THE NIGHT AS A BAND OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND GUST ABOVE 20 KTS IN SOME PLACES THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-027-030-
039-053.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/TG
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
649 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE. SITES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG SUCH AS GRAFTON AND VALLEY CITY HAD IMPROVED TO MORE THAN
6 MILES VISIBILITY EARLIER...BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE GONE BACK DOWN
AGAIN. DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACCORDING TO WEB CAMS AND
OBS SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 15Z AT
LEAST WITH NO CHANGES TO THE COUNTY CONFIGURATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
CLOUD COVER TODAY AND PRECIP MOVING IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL
BE THE MAIN PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN EDGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING. MAY
TRIM OFF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
6 TO 7 AM UPDATE THIS MORNING...EXACTLY HOW MANY TO BE DETERMINED.
THE RAP KEEPS HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM IS A BIT FASTER
IN DRYING THINGS OUT. DID NOT GO QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE
RAP...BUT HAVE SOME CLOUDS HANGING OUT A BIT LONGER TODAY...AND
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY. DO THINK WE WILL
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AND WITH 925MB TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOW
TEENS...UPPER 50S TO SOME MID 60S IN THE FAR WEST WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING OFF OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AND INTO THE CWA. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND
BY THIS EVENING AND MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY SETTING UP JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER BY TOMORROW
MORNING. MANY OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE FAIRLY HEALTHY QPF
VALUES...SO SOME DECENT RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY. WITH NEGATIVE
SHOWALTERS FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION...BUT THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE RAIN. THINK
THAT SEVERAL TENTHS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HALF AN INCH BY MORNING
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS/SFC BOUNDARY STALLS OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA...MOST LIKELY NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SET UP OF THE SYSTEM AND
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. THE NAM HAS OVER AN INCH OF QPF
JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER WHILE THE GFS IS MOSTLY OUT OF THE CWA
BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECWMF AS ALSO BEEN TRENDING A BIT FURTHER
EAST WITH THE PRECIP BAND SET UP. GEFS PLUMES ARE STILL SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AND QPF MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BUT LOWERED THEM SOMEWHAT IN THE WEST AS THERE SEEMS TO
BE AN EASTWARD TREND. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL START THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEP US IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER THE REGION AS A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS TWO SFC LOWS CENTERS...WITH
ONE OVER CANADA AND THE OTHER OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MODELS DIG THE CANADIAN LOW SOUTHWARD. NOT A LOT OF
CERTAINTY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
COMING IN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. A FEW INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS NOTHING
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS SIMPLE. THE TEMPS WILL BE CONTINUING DOWNWARD
TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INITIAL UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION...WITH AN ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PATTERN WILL SHIFT
TO A WEST COAST RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH SET UP...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
POOR VIS CONTINUES AT ALL BUT KDVL...AND THAT VERY LOW IFR TREND
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VIS DURING THE 14 TO 17Z TIME FRAME...WITH
STRATUS CLOUDS HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER IN THE EAST. THINK
THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE TAF
SITES GOING RIGHT BACK IN THE SOUP AFTER SUNSET...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SOME PRECIP MOVING IN. FOR
NOW HAVE VIS GOING DOWN TO THE 3-5SM RANGE WITH BR IN THE EVENING
AND THEN -RA LATER IN THE NIGHT AS A BAND OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND GUST ABOVE 20 KTS IN SOME PLACES THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ008-016-
027-029-030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/TG
AVIATION...JR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
319 PM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Confidence still high in a drier and warmer week. Maybe a system
moving into late in the weekend and/or early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
Fast mid level flow will bring some gusty winds to highest
elevations tonight...otherwise the weather will be mild and dry
tonight.
Tomorrow through Friday...a ridge of high pressure slowly builds
into the area. This will result in warming temperatures each day
this week and a dry period. Rasch
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
High temperatures will be above normal on Friday but may be a
little cooler than Thursday, as upper level ridging begins to
shift eastward. Temperatures gradually trend downward over the
weekend as a trough approaches and the ridge moves further east.
This will bring a slight chance of showers to the Coastal and
Shasta mountains Saturday afternoon, spreading to higher terrain
of W Plumas County and Sierra Nevada, and into the Northern
Sacramento Valley Saturday night. Precipitation could spread to
I80 by Sunday afternoon, and potentially further south for Sunday
night and Monday. While not a strong storm, recent model runs
have trended wetter and farther south with this system. High
temperatures drop to near normal levels early next week with
increased cloud cover. EK
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours, except patchy MVFR/IFR
fog may develop along the Sacramento Valley south of KMYV early
Tuesday morning. SW to NW winds 5-15 kt will become light tonight,
then become NW 5-15 kt Tuesday.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
238 PM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong gusty winds continued this afternoon but are expected to
subside tonight as high pressure moves into the region. Gradual
warming is expected this week with temperatures well above normal by
weeks end. Gusty winds may return next weekend with potential for
light precipitation in the northern Sierra early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Strong gusty winds continued across the region today associated with
cold front nearby and enhanced pressure gradient. Some areas in
Mono/Mineral Counties hit what would normally be Red Flag criteria
with humidities below 10% and gusts 40-60 mph. This included the
Mammoth Airport for several hours. Winds will drop off rather
quickly tonight as gradient relaxes with incoming high pressure.
That shows up well in the HRRR guidance. Could still see a few light
rain/snow showers early this evening in far NE Cal and NW Nev but no
accumulations.
Tuesday looks to be a transition day, with gusty W/NW winds likely
north of a Susanville-Fallon line with the retreating front still in
the vicinity. Building high pressure just off the west coast will
yield warming temperatures aloft over the region and a weak NE low
level flow Wednesday-Thursday. Warming in valleys will be gradual as
a result but strong inversions are not anticipated. Overall looks to
be a prime week to get outdoor projects or yard work done. -Chris
.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...
Forecast models continue to show the ridge axis shifting across the
Sierra and western Nevada on Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions
expected through the end of the week along with light northeast,
east winds for the Sierra and western Nevada. Temperatures will
climb into the upper 60s and near 70 degrees by Saturday as the
ridge axis shifts eastward and allows light west winds to return.
There is potential for the ridge to break down by late Saturday into
Sunday which will allow the large scale pattern to become a bit more
active again. Both operational models are targeting an upper level
jet along with some moisture towards the west coast. There is some
uncertainty where the jet will land, anywhere from the Lake Tahoe
Basin up towards the Pacific Northwest. There is some potential for
valley rain and mountain snow showers for late Sunday into Monday.
Edan
&&
.AVIATION...
The strong wind gusts around 60-80 kts across the Sierra ridges from
this morning will continue to diminish through the afternoon and
evening. Terminals in the eastern Sierra and western Nevada should
expect wind gusts decreasing to around 15-25 kts by this evening.
Only terminal that may still see wind gusts later in the evening
would be KMMH.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the area by this
afternoon and evening. Conditions have dried out considerably, so we
don`t anticipate fog forming in the Sierra valleys. Edan
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Pyramid Lake
in NVZ004.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
NVZ002.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
CAZ072.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1102 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG
THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:32 AM PDT MONDAY...FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
PERSIST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON REGION-WIDE. IN ADDITION, SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
GENERALLY INTO THE 60S (UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST). THE ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWS
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE...AS THE FINAL IN A SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS EXITS TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A HALF INCH IN
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN THE SANTA
LUCIA RANGE OF MONTEREY COUNTY. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MID
MORNING.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
UNTIL MID MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AS A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TO FORM TONIGHT. WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ALSO DEVELOPING LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S FORECAST BY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
A FEW LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. DRY AND
BALMY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WEST COAST. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS DON`T AGREE PARTICULARLY
WELL ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL DURING THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MOST RAINFALL WILL MOVE
INLAND TO OUR NORTH AND THAT ONLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF GETTING WET.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:58 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR TODAY WITH A HIGH
CLOUD DECK THAT WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AND DESCEND FROM 20K FT
DOWN TO 8K THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS ALSO SPAWNING FEW TO SCT CLOUDS A VARYING LEVELS
FROM 2-5K FT AGL. ADDITIONAL WEAK CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE FEW TO REBOUND TO SCT OR EVEN
BKN. CURRENTLY NOT ADDING ANY OVERNIGHT FOG TO TAF PACKAGE AS DEW
POINT DEPRESSION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP IT
AT BAY. THAT SAID... LOCALIZED POCKETS OF DENSE PATCHY FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED AREAS WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS... COOLER
TEMPERATURES... AND LIGHTER WINDS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH POSBL MVFR DEVELOPING AS
CUMULUS DEVELOPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCT CLOUD BASES COULD TURN TO
BKN AS DIURNAL HEATING/CONVECTION PICKS UP. WINDS GENERALLY OUT
OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPORADIC GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT POSBL.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW. A FEW GUSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TO 15KT. AFTERNOON HEATING
MAY LEAD TO THICKENING CLOUDS AOA 2500-3500 FT RESULTING IN BRIEF
MVFR CIGS.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:51 AM PDT MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY AND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. SQUARED SEAS WILL BE A THREAT IN ADDITION THE THE WINDS.
MODERATE SEAS WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...HOWEVER SEAS WILL DECREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016/
.UPDATE...
PULLED BACK POPS FARTHER NORTH INTO MIDDAY BASED ON TRENDS WITH
SHORTWAVE THOUGH OVERALL THOUGHT ON POSSIBLE THREATS HAS NOT
CHANGED AND SPC DID EXTEND THE MARGINAL RISK /5 PERCENT WIND...5
PERCENT HAIL/ INTO MUCH OF NORTH GA. MAIN COLD CORE AND TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL TO THE WEST THOUGH INITIAL FRONT WAVE OF DEVELOPMENT
HAS HAD A WANING TREND. RAP PROGGED MLCAPE STILL INDICATES NOSE OF
500 J/KG ADVECTING NE AHEAD OF WAVE SO EXPECTING SOME INITIATION
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH FAIRLY AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE IS PRECEDING
THE WAVE WHICH COULD FURTHER SUPPRESS DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION.
CANNOT RULE OUT FOCI FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL GA WHERE MORNING CLOUD DECK EDGES COULD ENHANCE SFC
BAROCLINITY...BUT WOULD BE LESS JUXTAPOSED WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SO
HAVE STILL KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND...AND THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA TOWARD NORTH
GEORGIA THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SHORT
WAVE DRIVING THESE STORMS AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...AND INSTABILITY
REMAINS MODEST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AREA OF BETTER MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE CAROLINAS AND LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR IS MODERATE AT BEST. A FEW STRONG STORMS WOULD NOT BE
IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...
BUT SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW. CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY
EXITS NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND MILD AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
20
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER THEY DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTION AFTER WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS BRINGS AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP IT MOSTLY DRY. THE FRONT STALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHCENTRAL GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST. HOWEVER ALL MODELS DIFFER
IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LOW END VFR CIGS WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND MOSTLY
VCSH ACROSS NORTHERN SITES...POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH KCSG THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST THUNDER CHANCES MAINLY JUST NORTH OF TAF SITES
THOUGH COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF ISOLATED -TSRA SO INCLUDED TEMPO
FOR KATL 20-22Z AND NEARBY SITES. OTHERWISE SOME POTENTIAL
CLEARING AFTER ABOUT 03-05Z THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SW WINDS.
GUIDANCE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN
SITES FOR EARLY MORNING WITH SOME REDUCED VSBYS...SO INCLUDED AT
LEAST SCT015 WITH 4SM BR FOR 09-14Z TUESDAY. SW WINDS BACK TO
7-10 KTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON INITIAL PRECIP/THUNDER POTENTIAL AND OVERNIGHT SOUTHERN
CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 78 54 83 58 / 40 30 0 0
ATLANTA 76 56 82 59 / 20 10 0 5
BLAIRSVILLE 70 50 78 52 / 60 30 0 5
CARTERSVILLE 75 52 83 55 / 50 10 0 10
COLUMBUS 81 56 84 57 / 10 5 0 5
GAINESVILLE 73 53 80 57 / 50 30 0 5
MACON 81 55 86 58 / 10 5 0 0
ROME 74 51 83 55 / 50 10 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 77 52 84 57 / 20 10 0 5
VIDALIA 84 60 85 60 / 10 5 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
254 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
19z/2pm visible satellite imagery continues to show cloudy skies
across central Illinois: however, holes are developing in the
overcast...particularly upstream across Iowa/Missouri. Low-level
flow remains weak, but this drier air will eventually filter into
the area this evening, resulting in a partial clearing trend. With
some clearing taking place and winds staying quite light, think fog
will re-develop tonight. Mitigating factors for widespread dense
fog will be partial cloud cover and increasing southeasterly winds
after midnight. HRRR is showing fog forming across much of the area
this evening, then becoming locally dense after midnight. Think
this is a bit overdone, so will only carry patchy fog at this time.
Most high-res models are suggesting scattered convection will
develop overnight across northern Missouri into Iowa as a
strengthening low-level jet noses into that area. Some of this
activity could spill into west-central Illinois toward dawn, so have
included low chance PoPs for showers/thunder along and west of the
Illinois River well after midnight. Overnight lows will be in the
lower to middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
Forecast concern continues to revolve around the the threat for
severe weather over parts of central through east central Illinois
tomorrow afternoon and evening as a rather potent upper wave
pushes into the Midwest.
Looks as though scattered precip chances tomorrow will be tied to
the surface and 850 mb warm front in the morning, mostly across
the west and north, and then along the cold front during the mid
to late afternoon and early evening hours as the cap weakens due
to increasing low level convergence forecast along the accelerating
cold front. The GFS continues to be the fast model, although
recent runs have trended a bit slower tomorrow afternoon, while
the ECMWF is deepest and slowest with the surface and upper level
features. Due to the slower movement in the cold frontal passage
and the cap holding on a bit longer than previously forecast, it
appears the main time frame for the threat for scattered storms
across the forecast area will be roughly 4pm until 10 pm. The NAM
and ECMWF indicates the better low level shear profiles for any
persistent rotating storms capable of large hail and isolated
tornadoes will be along and north of I-74, while low level wind
profiles become more unidirectional further south by late in the
afternoon. However, the further south you go, the stronger the
capping inversion is, but believe at least widely scattered storms
will be possible as you head into southeast IL late tomorrow
afternoon through the evening hours. All models indicate steep low
and mid level lapse rates with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching
8 C/KM tomorrow afternoon and evening suggesting the threat for
large hail along with damaging wind gusts, especially if the mode
transitions to a line of storms with time late in the afternoon
into the evening hours.
Models sweep the storms well off to our east by 03z with lingering
low chance POPs over the far north during the overnight hours
along with gusty winds as the deepening surface low shifts slowly
off to our north. Windy but mild conditions are expected Wednesday
before we see a gradual transition to cooler weather by the end of
the week and next weekend where afternoon temperatures will lower
into the upper 40s to lower 50s. As far as precip is concerned in
the extended, several weak waves are forecast to rotate south
around the deep upper low to our north which may produce some
isolated light showers with the main threat of rain coming along
over the weekend as the upper low to our north repositions itself
a bit further south over the Midwest. This will bring about
mentionable rain chances in the forecast on Saturday into Saturday
night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
IFR ceilings prevailed across central Illinois this morning:
however, ceilings are gradually rising into the MVFR category
early this afternoon as drier air tries to work into the area
from the southwest. Latest visible satellite imagery shows plenty
of breaks developing in the overcast upstream across southern Iowa
into Missouri, but with only very light low-level flow, think any
appreciable clearing will be delayed until this evening. Models
are in disagreement, with the NAM partially clearing things out
and the Rapid Refresh generally keeping it cloudy. Based on
satellite imagery, have sided with the more optimistic NAM. As
such, have removed ceilings at KSPI by 01z, then further northeast
to KCMI by 05z. If skies do indeed partially clear, light winds
and ample boundary layer moisture will lead to fog development
once again tonight. Have indicated that by including 2-4 mile
visbys at all terminals from mid-evening through the overnight
hours. A few WAA showers/thunder may develop overnight across
Iowa/Missouri, so have included VCSH at KPIA in case a few showers
spread that far eastward late tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
346 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
18Z SFC DATA HAS AN IMPLIED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KSUX TO NEAR
KEVV. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND DOWN TO THE GULF.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
SOME HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
HAS ALLOWED SOME BRIEF PEEKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS
SHOW THE SHOWERS NEAR KCID ARE RAPIDLY FALLING APART. THUS DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET.
AFTER SUNSET...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING.
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DUBUQUE TO GRINNELL.
INTERNALLY...MOST OF THE MODELS AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP ARE
SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BY MIDNIGHT...THE MODELS LOOSELY AGREE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE MO/KS BORDER UP INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL THEN MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
AND ARRIVE IN EASTERN IOWA PRIOR TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THIS COMPLEX
WILL STRATIFY OUT DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA BUT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT. THE
POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL THAT
COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.
THE DECAYING COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
THAT WILL PRODUCE BOUNDARIES FOR NEW CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.
DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT AND BOUNDARIES FROM THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL ALLOW NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP.
SEVERAL FACTORS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS ON
TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW EACH COMES TOGETHER. TWO IMPORTANT
FACTORS WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING.
THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...12Z RUN MODELS SHEAR OUT VIGOROUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE ACRS WI INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS THIS
PERIOD...BUT IN VARYING STRENGTHS. WILL WALK OUT LINGERING STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS OUT OF NORTHWESTERN IL BY
01Z...IF THEY DON/T EXIT EARLIER THAN THAT. THEN THE MODELS
DIVERGE...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST DYNAMICAL IN
HANDLING THE LOW WITH THE SFC FEATURE DEEPENING TO UNDER 990 MB ACTS
CENTRAL WI BY WED MORNING. THE EURO PRODUCES STRONG WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND THUS IS ADVERTISING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TUE EVENING IN MUCH OF EST CENTRAL IA NORTH OF
I80 AND WEST OF THE MS RVR. IT THEN CONTINUES WRAP-AROUND ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 WITH ANOTHER 0.30-0.60+ OF AN INCH OF QPF NORTH OF THE
HWY 30 CORRIDOR FROM 06Z-12Z WED...WITH PARAMETERS COOLING TO NEAR
RAIN-SNOW MIX OR ALL WET SNOW ALONG HWY 20 LATE TUE NIGHT. MOST OF
THE OTHER 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT NEARLY SO BULLISH AND AFTER SOME
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TUE EVENING BEHIND THE MAIN EXITING CONVECTIVE
LINE...THEY TRANSITION TO MAINLY DRY AFTER 06Z WED OR CLIPPING
NORTHWESTERN IL WITH SHOWERS/RAIN THROUGH 09Z WED BEFORE SWEEPING
OFF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL TAKE A BLEND THAT PRODUCES
A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF WRAP AROUND RAIN
ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE DVN CWA BY 12Z WED
MORNING.
WED THE CWA TO CONTINUE TO BE IN TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT OFF DEEP
CYCLONE IN EASTERN WI...WEST WINDS MAY GUST WELL OVER 30 MPH AND NOT
BE THAT FAR OFF ADVISORY LEVELS FOR SUSTAINED SPEEDS ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I80. WITH PLENTY OF DRIED VEGETATION AND AFTERNOON RH/S
DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...A GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER MAY EVOLVE BY WED AFTERNOON. A LOW CHC FOR MORE WRAP AROUND
LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 20 ON WED. IF WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MAINTAINS IN THE NORTHERN CWA INTO WED NIGHT-EARLY THU MORNING BY
BLOCKED GRT LKS CYCLONE...SOME PRECIP TYPE ISSUES MAY HAVE TO BE
DEALT WITH. BUT MORE MODELS ARE DRY WED NIGHT THAN ARE ADVERTISING
THIS POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... BLOCKED GRT LKS CYCLONE WILL LOOK TO FILL
SOME...THEN DRIFT BACK SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER TROF DOWN THE WESTERN
GRT LKS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. IF THIS PANS OUT...THEN POSSIBLY
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FEATURE BY THU
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80. EXPECT IF THIS
OCCURS... ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO DIURNALLY WANE THU NIGHT. BUT IF
THEY PERSIST LONGER INTO THE NIGHT THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...PRECIP
TYPE ISSUES WILL POPS UP AGAIN WITH RAIN-SNOW MIX OR EVEN ALL WET
SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80. THE SOUTHWARD DRIFTING TROF
WILL KEEP THE CHC FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS GOING FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NEW 12Z ECMWF AS BACKED OFF OF THIS
POTENTIAL AND IS MAINLY DRY INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. AGAIN ANY
LINGERING NOCTURNAL PRECIP MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO GO INTO A WINTRY MIX
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80. HIGHS THU IN THE MID 40S NORTH...TO THE MID
50S IN THE SOUTH...THU NIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY CLOUD DECREASE. FRI HIGHS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF
DEVELOPING COLD CORE UPPER TROF THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
HELD WELL DOWN IN THE 40S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SCTRD SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE UNDER THIS FEATURE ON SAT AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD VERTICAL PROFILES JUST ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS IS DRY ON SUNDAY WITH
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
SOME COLD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RVR. WILL KEEP A DRY
FCST FOR NOW THROUGH MON. LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SHOW A WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE LEADING EDGE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
LEAD CLIPPER WITH A PRECIP WING EITHER MON OR EARLY TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR WERE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z/15. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE
NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT LOW CLOUDS VERY WELL. AFT 00Z/15 A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. AFT 06Z/15 ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1235 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES AND MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER.
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY
REACH DUBUQUE BUT PERSIST ACROSS BUCHANAN COUNTY. RADAR TRENDS ARE
STARTING TO SUGGEST A SLOW DISSIPATION IN THAT AREA AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR AN UPDATE THERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE. BASED ON AVAILABLE
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE LINGERING LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE HANDLED
WITH AN SPS OVER THE NEXT 90 MINUTES.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST MAINLY IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
IMMEDIATE TRENDS BASED ON RADAR AND THE RAP SUGGEST SHOWERS
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS INDICATE VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY SINCE SUNRISE ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
AND INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THUS THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. TRENDS
OVER THE PAST HOUR SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
MORNING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS PERSISTED FROM MONMOUTH...TO
GENESEO AND PRINCETON. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
LOW 40S IN THE FREEPORT AREA...TO THE LOW 50S AROUND KEOKUK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE DENSE FOG
THIS MORNING...AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TONIGHT.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AM THINKING THIS WILL COVER THE AREAS WITH
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR HENRY/BUREAU/PUTNAM COUNTIES ONCE THE RAIN DIMINISHES.
OTHER THAN THE LINGERING RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
MORNING...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST TODAY...HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE...UPPER
50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY OTHERWISE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
TUESDAY...SPC CONTINUES WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND HAS EXPANDED IT A TAD TO THE WEST TO
INCLUDE THE QUAD CITIES AREA AND CLOSER TO DUBUQUE. ALL MODES OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE.
CURRENTLY WATER VAPOR MOVIE LOOPS INDICATED A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A POWERFUL 130 KNOT 300 HPA JET
STILL WEST OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT ENTERS NORTHERN CA...
INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL STILL BE DIGGING. SOME CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN NORTHERN CA AND IN IDAHO.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST OMINOUS WITH A DEEPER
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS WE GET UNDER THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO DEEPEN THIS
WILL HANG UP THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A DECENT
TRANSPORT OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE DVN CWA...AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT THE MS RIVER AND ON ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THE FRONT WILL BE
ARRIVING AT PEAK HEATING AND WITH A VERY COLD POCKET ALOFT THIS WILL
STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES CONSIDERABLY. MOST OF THE MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPES OF 2000 J/KG AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE
STRENGTHENING TO 50-60 KNOTS. THIS WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL
TORNADOES. LOOKING AT HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM IS THE ECMWF ALSO SEEMS
THE MOST PLAUSIBLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S FROM
ABOUT THE MS RIVER ON EAST.
THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN ARE WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM AND MUCH FASTER WITH
THE COLD FRONT...SUGGESTING THE SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LESS OF A
THREAT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO OUR FAR EASTERN CWA AND
QUICKLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PATTERN CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID
MARCH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE DETAILS REGARDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP WITH
TIMING/STRENGTH AND PRECIPITATION TYPES.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR WERE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z/15. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE
NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT LOW CLOUDS VERY WELL. AFT 00Z/15 A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. AFT 06Z/15 ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
122 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH INTO THE WRN CONUS
AND A RIDGE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO HUDSON BAY RESULTING IN SW FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. 700-500 MB FGEN/DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH NRN LOWER MI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTO NW WI HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH NW TO
NEAR IWD.
TODAY...EXPECT THE RAIN OVER THE EAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING AS THE NRN LOWER MI SHRTWV LIFTS THROUGH NRN
LAKE HURON. ANY RAIN OVER THE WEST SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE AS WEAK
MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED INSOLATION IN THE MILD AIRMASS...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REBOUND
INTO MID TO UPPER 40S OVER EAST HALF TO THE MID 50S OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST.
TONIGHT...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BUT REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. WITH WEAK ADVECTION AND LINGERING
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...FROM THE LOW 30S EAST TO AROUND 40 OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
...RAIN AMOUNTS AND/OR SNOW AMOUNTS TUE NIGHT INTO WED IS MAIN
CONCERN...
STRONG JET CORE SURGING ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NEV HELPS DIG LARGE
TROUGH ALOFT WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUE AFTN. AT
THE SAME TIME...TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FRONT PORTION OF
THE TROUGH MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH TWO SHORTWAVES...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE AND TROUGH ENDS UP MORE COMPLEX. MAIN SFC LOW TRACKS OVER
NORTHERN MN FIRST PART OF TUE...BUT BY TUE AFTN AND TUE EVENING FOCUS
SHIFTS TO WI AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY TRACKS FM IOWA TO
LOWER MICHIGAN. MAY SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PUSH
SOME SHOWERS OVER WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN TUE...BUT MAIN RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE ON TUE NIGHT. LIFT FM PVA/STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE FM H85 LOW TIED INTO THETA-E
RIDGE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORTS SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT LIFTING STEADILY NORTHWARD ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN. THOUGH PWATS ARE OVER 0.75 INCHES WHICH IS PUSHING 250-275
PCT OF NORMAL...THINK THE NAM IS ON THE WETTER SIDE OF MODELS
SHOWING QPF OVER 2 INCHES INTO WED OVER THE KEWEENAW. 1+ INCH
AMOUNTS SEEM LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN CWA CLOSER TO INFLUENCE
OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK DIVERGENCE.
WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN AND TEMPS STAYING ABOVE FREEZING EARLY THIS
WEEK...LIKELY WILL SEE SOME RESPONSE IN RIVERS DUE TO THE RAIN/SNOW
MELT. COOLER TEMPS SHOULD SLOW ANY RESPONSE MID-LATE WEEK. RECENT
REPORTS AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS OF SNOW DEPTH/SWE INDICATE SNOW DEPTHS
AROUND 20 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON KEWEENAW SOUTH OF HOUGHTON
AND ACROSS THE MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES. SWE IN THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY 4-6 INCHES. DO HAVE SOME
SMALLER/QUICKER RESPONDING BASINS IN THESE AREAS...INCLUDING THE
BLACK RIVER AND TRAP ROCK RIVER. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER RAIN
TUE NIGHT AND THE SNOW MELT...WILL HIGHLIGHT RISES IN RIVERS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
OVERALL THE GENERAL THEME OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THOUGH
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING REMAIN WITH BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED /ECMWF REMAINS ON THE SLOWER END OF MODELS/.
ADDED MENTION OF TSRA SCNTRL INTO EAST CWA TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS THAT AREA IS ON NORTH EDGE OF RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ALSO WITHIN STRONGEST H925-H85
THETA-E ADVECTION. SI/S ALSO FALL TOWARD ZERO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO BE TRYING TO ADVECT IN REMNANTS OF CLUSTERS OF TSRA THAT SHOULD
FORM UPSTREAM OVER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLIER IN THE DAY
ON TUE. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK SHOWS GENERAL TSRA OVER SCNTRL SO IT
MATCHES THAT AS WELL. ALSO PUT FOG INTO FORECAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. RAIN OVER THE MELTING SNOW SHOULD SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY
DURING ANY LONGER LULLS IN THE SHRA.
PTYPE STILL A BIGGER CONCERN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST. NAM APPEARS TOO COLD WITH BLYR TEMPS AND ITS SWITCH OVER
TO SNOW FOR KEWEENAW ON TUE NIGHT. WITH SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIP AND EAST WINDS BRINGING IN WARMER AIR SFC-H85...FOLLOWED MORE
MODERATE GFS IDEA WHICH SHOWS SUB 1KFT LAYER STAYING WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN UNTIL LATER WED MORNING INTO WED AFTN AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD SWITCH RAIN TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN
ALSO SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL CWA TO THE
WEST OF MARQUETTE WED AFTN. DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AS SFC LOW MOVES
EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN WED EVENING...NE COOL/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. PRETTY IKELY THAT NW
AND NCNTRL CWA WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW WED/WED NIGHT AND INTO THU
BEFORE THE SYSTEM DIMINISHES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO BUILDS
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL WINDS STAY N/NE BUT WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND H9-H85 TEMPS ONLY DOWN TO -7C TO -9C...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. COULD SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORK
THOUGH IN AN OVERALL TROUGHING ALOFT PATTERN SO THAT COULD BRING
CHANCE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON THU OVER THE WEST. STILL LOOKS LIKE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW NORTH OF HOUGHTON AND HANCOCK COULD END
UP WITH AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SLUSHY SNOW WED INTO WED NIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH SETTLING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK
ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST INTO FRI SO THAT WILL KEEP NORTHERN UPR
MICHIGAN COOLER WITH NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THU INTO FRI THOUGH. HIGH CROSSES FRI NIGHT SO LOWERED MINS
TOWARD AT LEAST CLIMO /TEENS INLAND/. SMALL CHANCES FOR MAINLY SNOW
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE COOLER PATTERN HANGS ON. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF
AND GFS FLIPPED ON HOW COLD IT MAY GET EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ECMWF
NOW COLDER. EVENTUALLY HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. AS A RESULT
TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK SHOULD PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD AT KIWD AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
PRESENT. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR THERE LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...KCMX AND KSAW WILL STAY MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORNING THERE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY WHERE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER N CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
25 KNOTS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1207 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TODAY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT AND
THE ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH THE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS AND REMOVED SHOWERS
MENTIONED THROUGH TODAY. THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
PUSHES EAST BETTER TOP DOWN MOISTENING MAY OCCUR FOR PRECIPITATION
TO REACH THE GROUND. TODAY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM CREATE A
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AREA OF CLOUDS/SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS UTAH AND
IDAHO SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MIXING HEIGHTS TO 10KFT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN
NEBRASKA. WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SFC WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE ANYTHING STRONGER EXCEPT THE MOSGUIDE. NONETHELESS
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENT OFTEN PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. THE RAP SUGGESTS ELEVATED CAPE LESS THAN 200 J/KG WHICH
COULD PERHAPS LIMIT PRECIPE LOADING AND THE WIND GUSTS. HIGHS IN THE
70S ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IGNORES THE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND RESPECTS THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS EVENING.
SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WITH
THE BLACK HILLS CONVERGENCE OPERATING. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
WIND AND DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ENHANCED MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
IS EVIDENT WITH ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AT 290K... INVERTED V PROFILES
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS... AND FALLING DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
DEEP MIXING TO 700HPA TUESDAY AND 650HPA WEDNESDAY NOTED IN GFS AND
NAM SOUNDINGS WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA ALSO
RESULTS IN A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT... FURTHER AIDING IN DRY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF USING THE DRIEST GUIDANCE...
MAINLY MAV... AND FURTHER REDUCED DEW POINTS TO TAKE IN ACCOUNT CAA
AND DOWNSLOPE. DESPITE COOLER HIGHS... DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MIN RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAKE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OVERALL... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN MIXED SUN/CLOUDS... STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW... AND
850HPA TEMPS AROUND 3C AT 18-00Z BOTH DAYS. A WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY... BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
FORCING REMAIN NORTH OF THE SDAK BORDER... SO REMOVED SCHC POPS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HWY 20.
LONG RANGE...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... GFS AND EURO ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY AND
A 500HPA LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY... BUT DIFFERENCES GROW OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE LOW MERGING WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVING EAST
QUICKLY... ALLOWING 850HPA TEMPS TO RECOVER TO 10C ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO KEEPS THE LOW PARKED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES IT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY... MAKING FOR A MUCH SLOWER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
AND POSSIBLY WETTER WEEKEND FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. A WEAK COOL FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AREA THURSDAY... WHICH MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP NEAR
THE PINE RIDGE. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE AS LOW AS 800HPA ALONG
WITH SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP... ALBEIT LIGHT... FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ARRIVES FRIDAY AS A
LEESIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW.
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FRIDAY MORNING... BUT LIFT IS
RATHER WEAK... ESPECIALLY IN THE DGZ. LEFT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY
DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AT TERMINALS KLBF
AND KVTN. MODELS ON TRACK WITH SURFACE LOW TO MOVE EAST WITH COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED BELOW 10 KFT THROUGH ABOUT 10Z THEN MOISTENS DOWN SOME YET
AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY BELOW 5 KFT. THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 00Z TO 04Z WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
FUTHER EAST TO INCLUDE THE ONEILL AREA THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
THE BEST GUESS USING THE HRRR...RAP AND HRRREXP MODELS IS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT RH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN FRENCHMAN BASIN
FIRE ZONE. THE ARW AND NMM MODELS WERE A BIT DRIER.
ISOLATED DRY TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY SPARK A FEW FIRES WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTN. THE LIGHTENING ACTIVITY LEVEL IS 3. ALL OF
THIS SUGGESTS THERE IS GOOD RANGE FIRE POTENTIAL BUT LESS THAN THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD.
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR WILD FIRE DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA IS OF GREATEST
CONCERN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST AND HUMIDITY LOWEST.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS AREA.
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT. ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TUESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KECK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...KECK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
247 PM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE TAPERING OFF
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OVER
THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO BRING A SPELL OF DRIER WEATHER TO MOST OF THE
GREAT BASIN THIS WEEK. HOWEVER LIGHT SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ELKO COUNTY. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS TURNED OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS ABOUT NOON TODAY IN THE ELKO AREA. SURFACE TEMPS
HAVE BEEN STEADY AROUND 40 DEGREES AS BREAKS OF SUN HAVE OCCURRED
OFF AND ON. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.
TONIGHT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AND PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OUT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SLOWLY MOVE INLAND TO
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS IS POSITIONED OFF THE COAST. DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN NEVADA DURING
THIS TIME...THESE SHOULD BE SNOW SHOWERS DESPITE THE DAYTIME
VALLEY TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW 40S DAILY. TEMPERATURES
OUTSIDE OF ELKO COUNTY WILL BE SLOWLY WARMING BACK INTO THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
A BROAD CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE NRN PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES IS A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS THAT CUTS ACROSS ERN IDAHO AND
POINTS TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A SHALLOW STRETCHED OUT COLD
FRONT WOULD CUT ACROSS NRN NEVADA IN THE SCENARIO. THE LATEST ECMWF
SHOWS THE SHEAR AXIS CLOSER TO NE NEVADA WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELKO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. EITHER WAY...MOISTURE
WOULD BE SPARSE WITH NO DYNAMICAL FORCING.
WITH THE WARM RIDGE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN STATES...A PROMINENT
WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE VALLEYS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S THIS WEEKEND (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NRN
VALLEYS NEAR THE BORDER).
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FLATTER AND FARTHER EAST
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST. OFFSHORE TROUGH
PROBABLY TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY WEATHER OVER THE NRN NEVADA
VALLEYS...BUT THE GFS DOES DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN NEVADA
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE WIND 25 KTS WITH G35KTS
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 01Z TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
PASSING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM KWMC TO KEKO...BUT STAY NORTH OF KELY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE ENDING AFTER SUNSET.
NOT AS WINDY TUESDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ELKO COUNTY...BUT MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE KEKO TERMINAL.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY-
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
92/88/88
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
238 PM PDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong gusty winds continued this afternoon but are expected to
subside tonight as high pressure moves into the region. Gradual
warming is expected this week with temperatures well above normal by
weeks end. Gusty winds may return next weekend with potential for
light precipitation in the northern Sierra early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Strong gusty winds continued across the region today associated with
cold front nearby and enhanced pressure gradient. Some areas in
Mono/Mineral Counties hit what would normally be Red Flag criteria
with humidities below 10% and gusts 40-60 mph. This included the
Mammoth Airport for several hours. Winds will drop off rather
quickly tonight as gradient relaxes with incoming high pressure.
That shows up well in the HRRR guidance. Could still see a few light
rain/snow showers early this evening in far NE Cal and NW Nev but no
accumulations.
Tuesday looks to be a transition day, with gusty W/NW winds likely
north of a Susanville-Fallon line with the retreating front still in
the vicinity. Building high pressure just off the west coast will
yield warming temperatures aloft over the region and a weak NE low
level flow Wednesday-Thursday. Warming in valleys will be gradual as
a result but strong inversions are not anticipated. Overall looks to
be a prime week to get outdoor projects or yard work done. -Chris
.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...
Forecast models continue to show the ridge axis shifting across the
Sierra and western Nevada on Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions
expected through the end of the week along with light northeast,
east winds for the Sierra and western Nevada. Temperatures will
climb into the upper 60s and near 70 degrees by Saturday as the
ridge axis shifts eastward and allows light west winds to return.
There is potential for the ridge to break down by late Saturday into
Sunday which will allow the large scale pattern to become a bit more
active again. Both operational models are targeting an upper level
jet along with some moisture towards the west coast. There is some
uncertainty where the jet will land, anywhere from the Lake Tahoe
Basin up towards the Pacific Northwest. There is some potential for
valley rain and mountain snow showers for late Sunday into Monday.
Edan
&&
.AVIATION...
The strong wind gusts around 60-80 kts across the Sierra ridges from
this morning will continue to diminish through the afternoon and
evening. Terminals in the eastern Sierra and western Nevada should
expect wind gusts decreasing to around 15-25 kts by this evening.
Only terminal that may still see wind gusts later in the evening
would be KMMH.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the area by this
afternoon and evening. Conditions have dried out considerably, so we
don`t anticipate fog forming in the Sierra valleys. Edan
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Pyramid Lake
in NVZ004.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
NVZ002.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
CAZ072.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN SPOTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, AS WELL AS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH MAINLY RAIN
FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MID MARCH THOUGH,
WITH DAILY DEPARTURES RUNNING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1027 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED HOURLY POPS TO
REFLECT LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HRRR OUTPUT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON EVOLUTION OF LIGHT PCPN ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO OUR
AREA TODAY SO LEANED TOWARDS IT`S IDEA ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES
WERE ADJUSTED BASED OFF HOURLY TRENDS, WHERE IN PLACES IT`S
RUNNING COOLER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS (SLV) WHILE ELSEWHERE WE`VE
ALREADY REACHED FORECAST MAXIMA IN MANY SPOTS SO RAISED VALUES
THERE A BIT. A LIGHT ICING THREAT ACROSS ELEVATED TERRAIN OF
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN VT STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT OVERALL THREAT REMAINS MINIMAL BELOW 1000
FEET IN THESE AREAS AS TEMPERATURES CREEP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 743 AM EDT MONDAY...COLD SFC RIDGE ACROSS
ERN NEW ENGLAND AND ASSOCIATED DRY PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S) WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF LIGHT
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONTAL PCPN BAND SHIFTS SLOWLY
NEWD FROM NY/PA TODAY. NEWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONTAL BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER SLOW WITH STRONG DEFORMATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM SRN LOWER MICHIGAN ESEWD ACROSS OH/PA PER WV IMAGERY. IT
APPEARS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THAT ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
AROUND 13Z FOR THE SRN HALF OF ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY WARMING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS (42F
AT KSLK AT 11Z)...THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH MIXED PCPN ACROSS NRN
NY...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT SUMMIT LEVEL.
PRECIPITATION FINALLY REACHES CENTRAL/ERN VT AROUND 18-19Z. ALL
RAIN EXPECTED WEST OF THE GREENS WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING ONGOING
AND TEMPS UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S BY THE TIME PRECIP ARRIVES. EAST OF
THE GREENS...IT APPEARS A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET IS LIKELY
INITIALLY...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AFTER
SUNSET...WITH 825MB WARM LAYER OF +3 TO +4C NOTED AT 23Z NAM
SOUNDING FOR MPV. BELOW THAT LEVEL...COLD LAYER IS
MAINTAINED...MAINLY FOR SURFACE ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 1-3KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ERN VT. GIVEN LACK OF COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS/WARM
PAVEMENT TEMPS...NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH WIDESPREAD ICING
(ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY)...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY (AOB 1") FOLLOWED BY A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER SUNSET FOR ELEVATIONS
1-3KFT FROM MARSHFIELD TO SUTTON AND ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY VT. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED TRAVEL CONCERNS IS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AOA 1000FT...AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
NERN VT FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY.
INCREASING P-GRADIENT BRINGS SOME GUSTY SELY WINDS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND ALONG THE
WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS (30-40 MPH LATE MORNING THRU AFTN).
ALREADY SEEING SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS IN 11Z OBS...WITH TEMP
LOCALLY 38F AT RUT AND 45F AT STAR LAKE NY, WHILE GENERALLY IN
THE MID- UPR 20S ELSEWHERE WHERE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FOR NOW.
DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS MAY HOLD DOWN OVERALL RAINFALL AMTS SLIGHTLY
IN THESE AREAS. FORECAST PRECIPITATION TODAY THRU TONIGHT RANGES
FROM 0.15-0.3" MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALLY 0.25-0.40" ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND ERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
(ORANGE/WINDSOR COUNTIES) WITH LOCALIZED UPSLOPE EFFECTS. HIGH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S TODAY...EXCEPT AROUND
45F WRN RUTLAND COUNTY AND MID 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WILL SEE NARROW ZONES OF HIGHS NEAR 32-34F MARSHFIELD TO SUTTON
AND ACROSS THE 1-2KFT ELEVATIONAL BAND IN MOST OF THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WHERE ANY ICING WOULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
MAIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PASSES TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD. WILL STILL SEE SOME SPOTTY
RAIN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ABOVE 1KFT
TONIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
HRS. LOWS TEMPERATURES MAINLY LOW-MID 30S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVENTING MUCH OF A DECREASING IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT MONDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THUS MOST
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD IMPACT OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MORE SHOWERS. AXIS OF
WARMER 925/850 MB TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THUS LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
TUESDAY AND IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT MONDAY...AREA REMAINS IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THUS STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL NOT
BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A COOLING TREND TAKING
PLACE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN TAKES PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA. COULD SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DOES NOT MOVE IN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW TO KEEP MORE COLDER AIR IN OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO SOME SNOW.
AGAIN...WAY OUT IN TIME BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS WARM
FRONT AND SHOWERY PRECIPITATION LIFT THROUGH THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE HIGHEST ON MVFR AT KMPV, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
ELSEWHERE. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY 8 TO 15 KTS AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO 25 KTS THROUGH 03Z, ESPECIALLY AT
KRUT/KBTV/KPBG, THEN SLOWLY ABATING.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODIC
SHOWERY EPISODES EXPECTED AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE REAMINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
007.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER. A WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOVER NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... STALL OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY...
THEN PUSH TO OUR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOW STRATUS STILL IN PLACE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER OF NC... THE STRATUS ELSEWHERE HAS
LIFTED AND MIXED OUT... ALLOWING FOR GOOD HEATING OVER THE SRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SRN PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS... WITH SHOWERS POPPING UP
FROM THE TRIANGLE SW TOWARD ROCKINGHAM. THESE WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY HEAD ENE INTO MARKEDLY MORE MOIST
(DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S) AND UNSTABLE AIR IN THE ERN SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WEAK VORTICITY OVER THE
ERN CAROLINAS -- SE OF THE POTENT UPPER WAVE NOW OVER CENTRAL KY/TN -
- AND ITS ATTENDANT DPVA ALONG WITH A MAX IN STJ-INDUCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE EXTRA DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THIS CONVECTION.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY NEAR 7.5 C/KM AND RISING... WITH
INCOMING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM... AND MLCAPE IS
ALREADY UP TO 1500 J/KG WITH 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
SO SEE NO REASON WHY THESE WON`T CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE...
PARTICULARLY WITH -10C TO -30C LAYER CAPE UP TO 400 J/KG. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THEN... THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH VA/NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... LIKELY
GENERATING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO
PIVOT ENE OVER WRN/NRN NC WITH LESSER COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST... WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
BE A BIT LOWER. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARMTH NEAR AND
SOON AFTER SUNSET AS WELL AS THE ANTICIPATED DIP IN THE HIGH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THE BETTER KINEMATICS SHOULD HELP BOOST STORM
INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT
AREAWIDE... WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. FOLLOWING
THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR TIMING... WE SHOULD SEE STORMS MOVING OUT OF
THE NE CWA NEAR OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH A CLEARING TREND FROM
SW TO NE LATE. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NE CWA COULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF FOG OR SHALLOW STRATUS BEFORE THE DRIER DEWPOINTS ARRIVE
VERY LATE TONIGHT... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. AFTER HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE VA BORDER TO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE... EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S (NW TO SE). -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL S/W AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK...ALLOWING A S/W RIDGE TO CROSS OUR REGION. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY-
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
AND WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD VARY FROM THE MID 70S FAR NE WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
DEPART...TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. CONTINUED MILD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS 55-60.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...S/W RIDGE MOVES EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL FORCE A SFC COLD FRONT TO SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL
LIMIT MOISTURE ADVECTION; THUS...EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS CENTRAL
NC DRY THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN THE EAST CONSIDERING THE TIME OF DAY THAT THE FRONT IS CROSSING
THE REGION. IF THE FASTER GFS/NAM SOLUTION VERIFIES...850MB TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW WILL INITIALLY
OFFSET/LIMIT THE COLD AIR. WITH THICKNESSES COMPARABLE TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...AND LOW LEVEL SW-WESTERLY FLOW FACTORED IN...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
VALUES ARE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR
MARCH 16TH. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO WANE THIS PERIOD AS UPPER AIR PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDER GOES A CHANGE.
A SERIES OF S/W AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION
THU AND FRIDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED WETTER WITH THE LEAD S/W AND SFC
FRONT THOUGH THIS MAY BE OVERDONE CONSIDERING MOISTURE ADVECTION
LIMITED DUE TO WLY FLOW. STILL COULD SEE A BAND OF CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO ON THU. NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY
AIR RIDGE BUILDS/EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SFC RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY WHILE A MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. S/W
TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO
INDUCE SFC LOW GENERATION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF COAST
SATURDAY...LIFTING ACROSS THE SE U.S. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A DECENT ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
CAROLINAS. WILL LIKELY SEE COOLER/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OCCUR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SFC PATTERN SIGNALS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HYBRID OR INSITU DAMMING EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN THREAT.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TRENDED DOWNWARD...STARTING OUT IN THE
70S THURSDAY...60S FRIDAY...AND 50S/LOWER 60S SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AND
50S MONDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S EXPECTED WITH 30S POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM MONDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...
BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
BRING THEIR OWN AVIATION HAZARDS WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL. STUBBORN IFR/LIFR STRATUS PERSISTS ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE NOW STALLED ACROSS FAR NRN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC. IFR CONDITIONS AT INT/GSO AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT
RDU/RWI/FAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO IMPROVE AND ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VFR AT THE START OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CUMULUS BASED AT 3 000 TO 4 000 AGL IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
THIS AFTERNOON... MOST LIKELY AFFECTING FAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER
CHANCE AT RDU/RWI AND AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE AT INT/GSO. HOWEVER...
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING... AND THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY AFFECT INT/GSO WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER THREAT AT
RDU/RWI/FAY. THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... EXITING OUR NORTHEAST SOON AFTER 1
AM/05Z. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE MORNING (FROM 08Z TO 16Z)... WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
WNW OR NW WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH
SAT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA... BUT ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WOULD BE BRIEF. -GIH
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 16TH.
RDU 86/1945
GSO 85/1945
FAY 87/1945
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
VSBY IMPROVING QUICKLY ALONG WITH CLEARING. ALLOWED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON TIME. HESITANT TO MESS WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES AS WITH WARM COLUMN ONCE SOLAR KICKS IN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RECOVER ACCORDINGLY. NO CHANGES NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
MANY AREAS FROM VALLEY EAST STILL SHOWING VSBY AT A 1/4 MILE OR
BLO SO HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO NOON FROM IMMEDIATE
VALLEY EASTWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE. SITES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG SUCH AS GRAFTON AND VALLEY CITY HAD IMPROVED TO MORE THAN
6 MILES VISIBILITY EARLIER...BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE GONE BACK DOWN
AGAIN. DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACCORDING TO WEB CAMS AND
OBS SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 15Z AT
LEAST WITH NO CHANGES TO THE COUNTY CONFIGURATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
CLOUD COVER TODAY AND PRECIP MOVING IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL
BE THE MAIN PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN EDGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING. MAY
TRIM OFF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
6 TO 7 AM UPDATE THIS MORNING...EXACTLY HOW MANY TO BE DETERMINED.
THE RAP KEEPS HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM IS A BIT FASTER
IN DRYING THINGS OUT. DID NOT GO QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE
RAP...BUT HAVE SOME CLOUDS HANGING OUT A BIT LONGER TODAY...AND
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY. DO THINK WE WILL
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AND WITH 925MB TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOW
TEENS...UPPER 50S TO SOME MID 60S IN THE FAR WEST WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING OFF OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AND INTO THE CWA. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND
BY THIS EVENING AND MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY SETTING UP JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER BY TOMORROW
MORNING. MANY OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE FAIRLY HEALTHY QPF
VALUES...SO SOME DECENT RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY. WITH NEGATIVE
SHOWALTERS FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION...BUT THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE RAIN. THINK
THAT SEVERAL TENTHS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HALF AN INCH BY MORNING
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS/SFC BOUNDARY STALLS OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA...MOST LIKELY NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SET UP OF THE SYSTEM AND
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. THE NAM HAS OVER AN INCH OF QPF
JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER WHILE THE GFS IS MOSTLY OUT OF THE CWA
BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF AS ALSO BEEN TRENDING A BIT FURTHER
EAST WITH THE PRECIP BAND SET UP. GEFS PLUMES ARE STILL SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AND QPF MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BUT LOWERED THEM SOMEWHAT IN THE WEST AS THERE SEEMS TO
BE AN EASTWARD TREND. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL START THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEP US IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER THE REGION AS A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS TWO SFC LOWS CENTERS...WITH
ONE OVER CANADA AND THE OTHER OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MODELS DIG THE CANADIAN LOW SOUTHWARD. NOT A LOT OF
CERTAINTY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
COMING IN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. A FEW INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS NOTHING
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS SIMPLE. THE TEMPS WILL BE CONTINUING DOWNWARD
TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INITIAL UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION...WITH AN ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PATTERN WILL SHIFT
TO A WEST COAST RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH SET UP...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
IFR STRATUS IS BURNING OFF AT ALL TAF SITES THIS HOUR.
THIS AFTN WILL BE VFR WITH SE WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE
VALLEY AND WEST. THIS EVENING A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WITH SHRA MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA. PROLONGED IFR
CONDITIONS IN BJI AND POSSIBLY TVF DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS AND DELAYED NW WINDS. ELSEWHERE BY EARLY MORNING NW WINDS
WILL HELP CIGS LIFT AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/TG
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
330 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE CROSSING INTO THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR/LOWERING DEW POINTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT LOBE OVER CENTRAL KY. MODELS SHOW THIS
FEATURE GRADUALLY LOSING STEAM AS IT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. HAVE SOME UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPE LOOKS TO MAX OUT AT AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT IS A
FAIRLY SKINNY PROFILE. HOWEVER...COMBINE THAT WITH A FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 9000FT AGL...SOME SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY TALLER STORMS. FLOW IS NOT OVERLY STRONG... 35-40KTS AT 700MB
AND 500MB... BUT WE DO HAVE A WEAK INVERTED V AND POCKET OF DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER CELLS. BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY MARGINAL -- AROUND 35KTS -- SO EXPECT INDIVIDUAL CELLS TO BE
RATHER UNORGANIZED AND MAYBE PULSE-Y IN NATURE.
WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...HAVE AN AREA OF HIGH POPS TRANSITIONING
ACROSS CWA FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELIED FAIRLY
HEAVILY ON THE HI-RES NAM AND HRRR FOR TIMING OF THE HIGHEST POPS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE 1-1.2 IN...WHICH SHOULD NOT CREATE
ANY WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS. HAVE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTH. WITH MIDDLE ISLAND CREEK AND DUCK CREEK CONTINUING TO RUN
HIGH...AND A BULLSEYE OF LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WILL LEAVE THE
FLOOD WATCH AS IS. PRECIP WILL BE COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH NO COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LOW STRATUS
AND SOME VALLEY FOG BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
USED A BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND ECMWF MOS FOR HIGHS WHICH
DID NOT RESULT IN ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. A MAV/MET BLEND
FOR LOWS TONIGHT TRENDED A TOUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS IN THE MIDWEST...IOWA AND ILLINOIS...NEAR 00Z
WEDNESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD MICHIGAN BY 06Z AND AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z WED. MEANWHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS ONLY FALL SLOWLY
HERE.
SO NOT IMPRESSED WITH SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. STILL
HAVE FRONT SWEEPING EAST. FIGURING REACHING TOWARD CRW AROUND 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN EXITING MOUNTAINS BY 15Z. DESPITE LACK OF
MID LEVEL SUPPORT...CONSIDERING AIR MASS WE ARE STILL IN...AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WILL STILL LEAVE SOME 20 TO 40 POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.
WESTERLY FLOW OF LOWERING DEW POINTS AND FRESHER AIR ADVECTING OUR
WAY...DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN FAST FLOW SOUTH OF THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HAVE MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN COULD NOT GO MORE THAN 20 TO 40 POPS.
CONSIDERING 850 TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND PLUS 1 C...LOWERED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND EVEN MENTIONED A POSSIBILITY FOR THOSE POPS OF R-S-
AOA 4000 FEET.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET WX WILL GREET FOLKS ENDING THE WORK WEEK WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS. WE STILL ENVISION A PATTERN CHANGE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL ESTABLISH A MEAN EASTERN US TROF THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
AND MORE SPECIFICALLY IF A CONSOLIDATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
FORM ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT SOME CHILLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH. HAVE MVFR WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TIMED OUT TO EACH TAF SITE. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EVENTUALLY AMEND TO
ADD IFR TEMPOS AS THE STORMS APPROACH...BUT WITH CURRENT BROKEN
LINE FELT IT BETTER TO LEAVE IFR OUT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOW STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG. RELIED FAIRLY
HEAVILY ON A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM THIS MORNING...FOR TOMORROW
MORNING...AND PUT IFR FOG AT EKN. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO OTHER
SITES EVENTUALLY. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD BE SLOW TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED TEMPOS FOR IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ009>011-017-019-020-
031-032-040.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30/26
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
205 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE CROSSING INTO THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT LOBE OVER CENTRAL KY. MODELS SHOW THIS
FEATURE GRADUALLY LOSING STEAM AS IT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. HAVE SOME UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPE LOOKS TO MAX OUT AT AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT IS A
FAIRLY SKINNY PROFILE. HOWEVER...COMBINE THAT WITH A FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 9000FT AGL...SOME SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY TALLER STORMS. FLOW IS NOT OVERLY STRONG... 35-40KTS AT 700MB
AND 500MB... BUT WE DO HAVE A WEAK INVERTED V AND POCKET OF DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER CELLS. BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY MARGINAL -- AROUND 35KTS -- SO EXPECT INDIVIDUAL CELLS TO BE
RATHER UNORGANIZED AND MAYBE PULSE-Y IN NATURE.
WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...HAVE AN AREA OF HIGH POPS TRANSITIONING
ACROSS CWA FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELIED FAIRLY
HEAVILY ON THE HI-RES NAM AND HRRR FOR TIMING OF THE HIGHEST POPS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE 1-1.2 IN...WHICH SHOULD NOT CREATE
ANY WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS. HAVE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTH. WITH MIDDLE ISLAND CREEK AND DUCK CREEK CONTINUING TO RUN
HIGH...AND A BULLSEYE OF LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WILL LEAVE THE
FLOOD WATCH AS IS. PRECIP WILL BE COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH NO COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LOW STRATUS
AND SOME VALLEY FOG BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
USED A BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND ECMWF MOS FOR HIGHS WHICH
DID NOT RESULT IN ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. A MAV/MET BLEND
FOR LOWS TONIGHT TRENDED A TOUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE HEADING INTO MID WEEK.
WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH IT...ANOTHER WEDGE
OF WARM LOW LEVEL AIR AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. OPERATIONAL
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
ACCORDING TO WPC...THE ENSEMBLES AND THEIR MEANS DO NOT HELP MATTERS
MUCH EITHER. ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF
THIS FEATURE...AND WOULD MAKE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT A MORE
SIGNIFICANT PLAYER AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS IN TERMS OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION. NAM IS SLOWER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH TO PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH...THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE BETTER DEFORMATION IN ITS
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED
TO ITS APEX PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOWS
SHOULD STACK AT SOME POINT...AND COULD SEE A SHEARED VORT MAX IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW FILLS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WARM AIR WILL END
UP PINNED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL SET UP AN OVERALL
COOLING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM SPRING WX OF RECENT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK TO A
COOL SEASON SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A MEAN LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN US BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH QUIET WX GENERALLY THRU FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN CHANGE MAY BE USHERED IN BY A EASTERN STORM
SYSTEM WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH CHILLY RAIN ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH. HAVE MVFR WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TIMED OUT TO EACH TAF SITE. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EVENTUALLY AMEND TO
ADD IFR TEMPOS AS THE STORMS APPROACH...BUT WITH CURRENT BROKEN
LINE FELT IT BETTER TO LEAVE IFR OUT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOW STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG. RELIED FAIRLY
HEAVILY ON A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM THIS MORNING...FOR TOMORROW
MORNING...AND PUT IFR FOG AT EKN. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO OTHER
SITES EVENTUALLY. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD BE SLOW TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED TEMPOS FOR IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ009>011-017-019-020-
031-032-040.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30/26
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ