Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/13/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
946 AM PST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS FROM THE COAST TO THE DESERTS. COOLER WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER BY MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AT 8 AM...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED THE CENTER OF A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AROUND 150 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. A WELL
DEFINED COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWARD DOWN PAST THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING INDICATED A SATURATED LAYER
AT THE SURFACE...WHICH COINCIDES WELL WITH THE 1/4 AND 1/2 MILE VIS
REPORTS EARLIER THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL MESAS...AS WELL AS A
DEEP MOIST LAYER ALOFT. 24-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE
STRENGTHENED...CURRENTLY +6.9 MB SAN-TPH AND +4.2 SAN-DAG.
THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY COMPACT AND QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE PRECIP...
ADVECTING THE INITIAL BAND TO THE COAST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...COMBINED WITH A TIGHTLY WOUND
VORT MAX...ARE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATEST FORECAST
TOTAL ESTIMATES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...COAST/VALLEYS 0.25"-
0.75"...MOUNTAINS 0.50"-1.25"...AND DESERTS TRACE-0.25". SNOW LEVELS
WILL START AROUND 8000 FT THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERING TO 5000 FEET
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...THE SNOW MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY
BELOW THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. SEE LAXWSWSGX FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. ALONG WITH THE RAIN AND
SNOW...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE HRRR MODEL FIRST INCREASES WESTERLY WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DEVELOP THE GUSTY WEST
WINDS AT THE COAST AND VALLEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
SEE LAXNPWSGX FOR DETAILS. RAIN...SNOW...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY COME
TO AN END AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MOIST ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER WEATHER.
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PW BETWEEN 0.80 AND 0.90...AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL REGENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODELS BUILD A LARGE DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND
DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...
111600...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS...WITH VARIABLE BASES 300-
1200 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1100-1300 FT MSL...WILL LIFT THROUGH
17Z. 17Z-21Z...SCT CLOUDS 1000-2500 FT MSL WITH PRIMARILY P6SM. SHRA
CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 21Z WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN LOOKING TO BE
CENTERED WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS CENTERED AROUND 00Z...PER A HIGH
RES MODEL CONSENSUS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA 00Z-06Z WITH CB TOPS
REACHING 25000 FT MSL. SHRA ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SPOTTIER AFTER
03Z.
MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AS PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS PICKING UP THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND INCREASING WITH SURFACE GUSTS 50 TO
60 KT OVER RIDGES AND DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOD-STG UP/DOWNDRAFTS AND POSSIBLE ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE MTNS.
EXPECT MTN OBSCURATION ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES ABOVE 2000 FT MSL.
&&
.MARINE...
800 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BIGHT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...SUSTAINED WINDS 10-20
KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT AT 4 PM. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. ALSO...A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...PEAKING EARLY SATURDAY AT 8-11 FT WITH A
PERIOD OF 11-13 SEC. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
111600...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS...WITH VARIABLE BASES 300-
1200 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1100-1300 FT MSL...WILL LIFT THROUGH
17Z. 17Z-21Z...SCT CLOUDS 1000-2500 FT MSL WITH PRIMARILY P6SM. SHRA
CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 21Z WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN LOOKING TO BE
CENTERED WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS CENTERED AROUND 00Z...PER A HIGH
RES MODEL CONSENSUS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA 00Z-06Z WITH CB TOPS
REACHING 25000 FT MSL. SHRA ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SPOTTIER AFTER
03Z.
MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AS PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS PICKING UP THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND INCREASING WITH SURFACE GUSTS 50 TO
60 KT OVER RIDGES AND DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOD-STG UP/DOWNDRAFTS AND POSSIBLE ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE MTNS.
EXPECT MTN OBSCURATION ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES ABOVE 2000 FT MSL.
&&
.MARINE...
800 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BIGHT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...SUSTAINED WINDS 10-20
KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT AT 4 PM. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. ALSO...A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...PEAKING EARLY SATURDAY AT 8-11 FT WITH A
PERIOD OF 11-13 SEC. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY.
&&
.BEACHES...
800 AM...A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM 280-285 DEGREES WILL MOVE INTO
THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PRODUCING ELEVATED
SURF OF 4-6 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER IN NORTHERN ORANGE AND SOUTHERN
SAN DIEGO COUNTIES. ANOTHER LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL LOOKS TO
ARRIVE NEXT MONDAY...BUT THE STEEPER DIRECTION OF 290 DEGREES WILL
RESULT IN FEWER BEACHES IMPACTED WITH HIGH SURF.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR
BANNING.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE
MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT
TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON/GREGORIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
532 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...
231 PM CST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST IS ON PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AS RAIN EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE CWA OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. FARTHER
SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST...AND IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO
REGION OF WEAK PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE/OLD CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WHICH IS BEING KICKED OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST BY ANOTHER STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS IL/IN SUNDAY...WITH PRECIP
POTENTIAL RAMPING UP ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND INCREASES MOIST ASCENT ACROSS LOW LEVEL WARM
FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. IN FACT A WEAKER LEAD SHORT WAVE
WAS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MO/EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON IN A
REGION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
300-305 K THETA SURFACES. AMDAR AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS DEPICT
LOW LEVELS BELOW 500-600 MB ARE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
IL...AND WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN AND SATURATE MORE
FULLY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL INTO THIS EVENING. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH-NORTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES.
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE CWA GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS THE GREATEST
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
EVENING WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE.
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AGAIN GIVEN ALIGNMENT OF FORCING FEATURES
AND PWATS OF 1+ INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90 PERCENTILE BASED
ON ILX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID-MARCH. DEEP MOIST-ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES ALSO APPEAR TO YIELD SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TIER OR SO OF CWA COUNTIES
FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPS REACHED THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHGAN THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE CLIMB SOMEWHAT. CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL DEW POINT TEMPS SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 40S MOST AREAS AND AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH...AND
DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...PURE ADVECTION
OF WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMP AGAIN IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S SOUTH. INCREASING EAST WINDS (10-20 MPH) WILL COMBINE
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO KEEP THINGS COOLER NORTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WAVE AND BAROCLINIC REGION...WITH TEMPS FROM THE MID
40S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE LOWER 50S FARTHER INLAND IN LINE
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
303 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WITH RETURNING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIME.
A WET START TO THE PERIOD IS STILL APPEARING LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT.
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSING THIS FLOW
ALONG WITH SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE REFLECTION LOOK TO STILL PROVIDE
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. DID MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR
THE AREA IN THE EVENING BUT SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEPART TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IN THE EVENING
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT LOCATION WILL STILL LIKELY BE
IN AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR. SO HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY FOR THE INDIANA COUNTIES
SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER. ANY THUNDER CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND WEAKENING
FORCING. CONTINUE THE LOWERING TREND WITH POPS ON MONDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM FURTHER DEPARTS. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND FORCING ALONG DEPARTING BOUNDARY. DO LEAVE SOME CHANCE
POPS IN THE MORNING BUT GO MAINLY DRY IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A PORTION OF THE
EVENING ON MONDAY...DO BRING BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THEN CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. APPROACHING
SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW BACKING LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE DURING THIS NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...WAA
LOOKS TO RAMP UP WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS WAA AXIS. GUIDANCE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD...AND SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER GIVEN THIS SIGNAL AND PATTERN.
MORNING GUIDANCE COMING IN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ONE ANOTHER ON
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WHILE UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OF AT LEAST 120KT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. MID
LEVEL FLOW/ENERGY IS ALSO APPEARING RATHER ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL
FLOW OF AROUND 100KT BECOMING POSSIBLE...AND WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A STOUT VORT MAX TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GROWING MORE CONCERNED FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY AS A WARM/MOIST ENVIRONMENT ADVECTS NORTH OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO MOISTURE RETURN...MODEL CONSENSUS IS
STILL INDICATING MODEST MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
WITH SOME PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATING A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. IN THIS SCENARIO...INSTABILITY
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY INCREASING.
HOWEVER...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS SOLUTION QUITE YET AND HAVE
GONE WITH MORE OF A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH. EVEN IN THIS
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...THIS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN COULD STILL
YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY IN UPWARDS OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THIS
HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND EXPECTED STRONG KINEMATIC FIELD...EVEN
THIS POSSIBLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF THESE FEATURES COULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO GATHER ANY STRONG CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY
HOW TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD. HOWEVER...THIS PERIOD WARRANTS CLOSE
MONITORING FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT GRADUALLY BUILDING DOWNWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WDLY SCTD -SHRA WEST OF CHICAGO AND BRIEF
SPRINKLES/POSSIBLE -SHRA IN THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE MORE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH CIGS LIKELY DROPPING FROM VFR TO IFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS WITH
STEADY -RA/DZ. EAST WINDS OFF THE CHILLY LAKE SHOULD RE-ENFORCE
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND ANTICIPATE CIGS TO FALL TO LIFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH IFR OR POSSIBLY LIFR VSBY ALSO EXPECTED WITH
DZ/RA/FG. NO IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
252 PM CST
FEW CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE CENTRAL/LOWER GREAT LAKES.
MODEST EAST WINDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WAS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...AND EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE A BIT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE LAKE AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO IL/IN BY EVENING. IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME THAT THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL THEN SLACKEN AGAIN INTO MONDAY
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEAK LOW.
A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL BEING WATCHED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH FORECAST MODELS STILL DEVELOPING A DEEP
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES OR UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY AND MOVING THE LOW ACROSS THE LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WOULD STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS/GALES BY WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS STILL AMPLE SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER... MAKING CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE WIND FIELD
FAIRLY LOW.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
343 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WAS PROVIDING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER
STRATUS CONTINUED TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A
RELATIVELY DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD FURTHER NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. 15Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON TEMPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION...THINK THE CIRRUS WILL
BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...POTENTIALLY THICKENING FURTHER
LATE TODAY AS THE MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
LIFT BACK NORTH. THE BIGGER QUESTION LIES WITH THE LOWER STRATUS
DECK OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MAY KEEP THIS DECK FROM
SHIFTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS BACK ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO. HAVE GONE MUCH
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT...AND THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTH ALL DAY.
WITH GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE...GENERALLY LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF FURTHER
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE THE STRATUS LINGERS.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY THIS EVENING...BUT OVERNIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP EAT AWAY
WITH ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...SO LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE...KEEPING
THE ENTIRE NORTH HALF DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE SOUTH WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
ON SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN...BUT OVERALL FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. ALLOWED POPS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SATURDAY NIGHT BETTER FORCING WILL MOVE IN THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. WHILE THE LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL LOOK GOOD ENOUGH TO GO LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW.
WITH THE UPPER LOW /NOW REALLY A TROUGH/ STILL MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WENT LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS. AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES TO
OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT LOW END LIKELY POPS AS BETTER
FORCING WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTH.
SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL ROB
MOISTURE FROM THE AREA AND COULD RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN OR
AT LEAST LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ONE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AIMS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY EVENING THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND KEEPS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW STALLS AND SPINS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ABOUT
WHEN SMALL UPPER WAVES COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. THUS
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN FROM THE INITIALIZATION. BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY SO
ELIMINATED SPOTTY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME. THEN ON
FRIDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH AND BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BUT DROP A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED UPPER LOW BRINGING
COOL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 11/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SPOTTY MVFR CLOUD DECK COULD HOLD ON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AT KBMG BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT COMPLETELY BY AROUND 20Z. ALSO HAVE
SEEN A DECK DEVELOPING OVER SITES EAST OF KLAF BUT THINK IF ANY
LOWER CEILING DEVELOPS THERE IT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND THUS
WILL LEAVE IT OUT. CIRRUS WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE SITES ALONG
WITH ENE FLOW AROUND 5-10 KTS NOW DROPPING TO 3-6 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. ARRIVAL OF LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN WITH THE NEXT WAVE
MOVING UP SATURDAY IS STILL SOMEWHAT VARIABLE GIVEN A VARIETY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS. STAYED BETWEEN LAV AND LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BETWEEN NAM AND GFS AND BETTER MATCHED CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS
BRINGS IN MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS TO KBMG FIRST AROUND 13Z AND THEN
KHUF AND KIND AROUND 15Z. KLAF SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE MVFR
THROUGH 18Z. TIMING OF RAINFALL ONSET MAY REMAIN AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
249 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WAS PROVIDING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER
STRATUS CONTINUED TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A
RELATIVELY DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD FURTHER NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. 15Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON TEMPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION...THINK THE CIRRUS WILL
BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...POTENTIALLY THICKENING FURTHER
LATE TODAY AS THE MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
LIFT BACK NORTH. THE BIGGER QUESTION LIES WITH THE LOWER STRATUS
DECK OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MAY KEEP THIS DECK FROM
SHIFTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS BACK ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO. HAVE GONE MUCH
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT...AND THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTH ALL DAY.
WITH GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE...GENERALLY LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF FURTHER
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE THE STRATUS LINGERS.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY THIS EVENING...BUT OVERNIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP EAT AWAY
WITH ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...SO LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE...KEEPING
THE ENTIRE NORTH HALF DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE SOUTH WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
ON SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN...BUT OVERALL FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. ALLOWED POPS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SATURDAY NIGHT BETTER FORCING WILL MOVE IN THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. WHILE THE LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL LOOK GOOD ENOUGH TO GO LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW.
WITH THE UPPER LOW /NOW REALLY A TROUGH/ STILL MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WENT LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS. AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES TO
OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT LOW END LIKELY POPS AS BETTER
FORCING WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTH.
SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL ROB
MOISTURE FROM THE AREA AND COULD RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN OR
AT LEAST LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ONE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AIMS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY EVENING THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND KEEPS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW STALLS AND SPINS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ABOUT
WHEN SMALL UPPER WAVES COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. THUS
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN FROM THE INITIALIZATION. BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY SO
ELIMINATED SPOTTY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME. THEN ON
FRIDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH AND BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BUT DROP A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED UPPER LOW BRINGING
COOL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 111800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
SPOTTY MVFR CLOUD DECK COULD HOLD ON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AT KBMG BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT COMPLETELY BY AROUND 20Z. ALSO HAVE
SEEN A DECK DEVELOPING OVER SITES EAST OF KLAF BUT THINK IF ANY
LOWER CEILING DEVELOPS THERE IT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND THUS
WILL LEAVE IT OUT. CIRRUS WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE SITES ALONG
WITH ENE FLOW AROUND 5-10 KTS NOW DROPPING TO 3-6 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. ARRIVAL OF LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN WITH THE NEXT WAVE
MOVING UP SATURDAY IS STILL SOMEWHAT VARIABLE GIVEN A VARIETY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS. STAYED BETWEEN LAV AND LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BETWEEN NAM AND GFS AND BETTER MATCHED CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS
BRINGS IN MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS TO KBMG FIRST AROUND 13Z AND THEN
KHUF AND KIND AROUND 15Z. KLAF SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE MVFR
THROUGH 18Z. TIMING OF RAINFALL ONSET MAY REMAIN AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1202 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WAS PROVIDING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER
STRATUS CONTINUED TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A
RELATIVELY DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD FURTHER NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. 15Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON TEMPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION...THINK THE CIRRUS WILL
BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...POTENTIALLY THICKENING FURTHER
LATE TODAY AS THE MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
LIFT BACK NORTH. THE BIGGER QUESTION LIES WITH THE LOWER STRATUS
DECK OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MAY KEEP THIS DECK FROM
SHIFTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS BACK ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO. HAVE GONE MUCH
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT...AND THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTH ALL DAY.
WITH GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE...GENERALLY LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF FURTHER
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE THE STRATUS LINGERS.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY THIS EVENING...BUT OVERNIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP EAT AWAY
WITH ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...SO LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE...KEEPING
THE ENTIRE NORTH HALF DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE SOUTH WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
ON SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN...BUT OVERALL FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. ALLOWED POPS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SATURDAY NIGHT BETTER FORCING WILL MOVE IN THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. WHILE THE LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL LOOK GOOD ENOUGH TO GO LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW.
WITH THE UPPER LOW /NOW REALLY A TROUGH/ STILL MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WENT LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS. AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES TO
OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT LOW END LIKELY POPS AS BETTER
FORCING WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTH.
SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL ROB
MOISTURE FROM THE AREA AND COULD RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN OR
AT LEAST LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER PATTERN
TRANSITIONS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WEST AND EJECTING
SHORTWAVES TO A BROAD TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
AN UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY
MAY BE AVAILABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION OF
CHOICE BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT.
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
PROVIDING MOMENTARY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
70S FOR TUESDAY AND DECREASED POPS TO DRY DURING THAT TIME FROM
SLIGHT CHANCES. AFTER THAT MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN AND
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF WAVES/PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL FEATURES LEADS
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ACCEPTED INITIALIZATION OF SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS WITH NO CHANGES DURING THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 111800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
SPOTTY MVFR CLOUD DECK COULD HOLD ON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AT KBMG BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT COMPLETELY BY AROUND 20Z. ALSO HAVE
SEEN A DECK DEVELOPING OVER SITES EAST OF KLAF BUT THINK IF ANY
LOWER CEILING DEVELOPS THERE IT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND THUS
WILL LEAVE IT OUT. CIRRUS WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE SITES ALONG
WITH ENE FLOW AROUND 5-10 KTS NOW DROPPING TO 3-6 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. ARRIVAL OF LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN WITH THE NEXT WAVE
MOVING UP SATURDAY IS STILL SOMEWHAT VARIABLE GIVEN A VARIETY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS. STAYED BETWEEN LAV AND LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BETWEEN NAM AND GFS AND BETTER MATCHED CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS
BRINGS IN MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS TO KBMG FIRST AROUND 13Z AND THEN
KHUF AND KIND AROUND 15Z. KLAF SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE MVFR
THROUGH 18Z. TIMING OF RAINFALL ONSET MAY REMAIN AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WAS PROVIDING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER
STRATUS CONTINUED TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A
RELATIVELY DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD FURTHER NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. 15Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON TEMPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION...THINK THE CIRRUS WILL
BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...POTENTIALLY THICKENING FURTHER
LATE TODAY AS THE MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
LIFT BACK NORTH. THE BIGGER QUESTION LIES WITH THE LOWER STRATUS
DECK OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MAY KEEP THIS DECK FROM
SHIFTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS BACK ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO. HAVE GONE MUCH
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT...AND THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTH ALL DAY.
WITH GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE...GENERALLY LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF FURTHER
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE THE STRATUS LINGERS.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY THIS EVENING...BUT OVERNIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP EAT AWAY
WITH ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...SO LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE...KEEPING
THE ENTIRE NORTH HALF DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE SOUTH WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
ON SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN...BUT OVERALL FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. ALLOWED POPS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SATURDAY NIGHT BETTER FORCING WILL MOVE IN THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. WHILE THE LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL LOOK GOOD ENOUGH TO GO LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW.
WITH THE UPPER LOW /NOW REALLY A TROUGH/ STILL MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WENT LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS. AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES TO
OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT LOW END LIKELY POPS AS BETTER
FORCING WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTH.
SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL ROB
MOISTURE FROM THE AREA AND COULD RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN OR
AT LEAST LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER PATTERN
TRANSITIONS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WEST AND EJECTING
SHORTWAVES TO A BROAD TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
AN UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY
MAY BE AVAILABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION OF
CHOICE BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT.
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
PROVIDING MOMENTARY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
70S FOR TUESDAY AND DECREASED POPS TO DRY DURING THAT TIME FROM
SLIGHT CHANCES. AFTER THAT MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN AND
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF WAVES/PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL FEATURES LEADS
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ACCEPTED INITIALIZATION OF SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS WITH NO CHANGES DURING THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 11/1500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
SOME IFR/MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER KBMG AND KIND. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS DON/T SHOW THEM AT ALL. HRRR SHOWS THESE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. RUC HAS THEM HANGING AROUND MUCH
OF THE DAY. FOR NOW LOOKING AT SATELLITE LOOP PREFER THE HRRR
SOLUTION. THUS WILL ADD A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR THESE
LOWER CEILINGS AT KBMG AND KIND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WOULD NOT SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AFTER TOWARD 12Z AT
HUF AND BMG AND AFTER 15Z AT IND. FOR NOW...WILL BRING VCSH TO IND
AT 15Z SATURDAY. SHOULD ONLY SEE CIRRUS OVERHEAD TODAY AND WITH
INCREASING MID DECK TOWARD 12 SATURDAY.
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO CENTRAL INDIANA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. THIS DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS HIGH
PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STEADY FLOW OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA
THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. HARD TO TELL AT THE MOMENT HOW THICK THE HIGH
CLOUDS ARE...BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY. WILL
GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE DAY AS A WHOLE.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME THANKS TO THESE CLOUDS...WITH UPPER
50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY THIS EVENING...BUT OVERNIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP EAT AWAY
WITH ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...SO LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE...KEEPING
THE ENTIRE NORTH HALF DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE SOUTH WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
ON SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN...BUT OVERALL FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. ALLOWED POPS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SATURDAY NIGHT BETTER FORCING WILL MOVE IN THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. WHILE THE LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL LOOK GOOD ENOUGH TO GO LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW.
WITH THE UPPER LOW /NOW REALLY A TROUGH/ STILL MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WENT LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS. AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES TO
OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT LOW END LIKELY POPS AS BETTER
FORCING WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTH.
SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL ROB
MOISTURE FROM THE AREA AND COULD RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN OR
AT LEAST LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER PATTERN
TRANSITIONS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WEST AND EJECTING
SHORTWAVES TO A BROAD TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
AN UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY
MAY BE AVAILABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION OF
CHOICE BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT.
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
PROVIDING MOMENTARY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
70S FOR TUESDAY AND DECREASED POPS TO DRY DURING THAT TIME FROM
SLIGHT CHANCES. AFTER THAT MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN AND
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF WAVES/PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL FEATURES LEADS
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ACCEPTED INITIALIZATION OF SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS WITH NO CHANGES DURING THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 11/1500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
SOME IFR/MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER KBMG AND KIND. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS DON/T SHOW THEM AT ALL. HRRR SHOWS THESE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. RUC HAS THEM HANGING AROUND MUCH
OF THE DAY. FOR NOW LOOKING AT SATELLITE LOOP PREFER THE HRRR
SOLUTION. THUS WILL ADD A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR THESE
LOWER CEILINGS AT KBMG AND KIND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WOULD NOT SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AFTER TOWARD 12Z AT
HUF AND BMG AND AFTER 15Z AT IND. FOR NOW...WILL BRING VCSH TO IND
AT 15Z SATURDAY. SHOULD ONLY SEE CIRRUS OVERHEAD TODAY AND WITH
INCREASING MID DECK TOWARD 12 SATURDAY.
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1125 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
...06Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
ADDED PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST IL INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IA WHERE BETTER FOG SIGNAL
PRESENT IN HI-RES MODELS. MSAS SFC ANALYSIS ALSO DEPICTS WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA... ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
IL. ALSO NUDGED UP SKY COVER DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA ATTENDANT TO UPPER LEVEL JET. ALSO MONITORING
STRATUS NEAR LAKE MI. INTO THE OVERNIGHT 925 MB FLOW IS SHOWN TO
REMAIN NORTHERLY... BUT AFTER 09Z THROUGH 15Z THE FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHEAST WHICH COULD ADVECT SOME OF THIS STRATUS CLOSE IF NOT
INTO PORTIONS OF BUREAU...PUTNAM AND WHITESIDE COUNTIES. BUT RIGHT
NOW THE CHANCES LOOK SLIM WITH RAP AND NAM SUGGESTING WIND SPEEDS
5-10 KTS... WHICH TYPICALLY NEED CLOSER TO 15 KTS OR BETTER FOR
IMPACT. MORE FAVORED SCENARIO MAY BE STRATUS FORMATION IN THESE
SAME AREAS... BUT 00Z DVN RAOB IS FAIRLY DRY AND SO NOT SURE WILL
SEE EVEN THIS OCCUR. BOTTOM LINE IS INCREASED FOR CIRRUS BUT
OVERALL MAINTAINED MAINLY CLEAR WORDING. TEMPS JUST TWEAKED MAINLY
IN FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE DOWN IN THE LOWER
30S IF NOT AROUND 30 IN A FEW SPOTS.
MCCLURE
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
H5 WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LEAD TO
CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH SW FROM THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH BROKE UP
LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED IN THE AREA WILL
LEAD TO NO CHANCES OF POPS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THAT ON FRIDAY...CLEAR
SKIES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GEM AND GFS ARE COOLER WITH TEMPS TOMORROW...THINK THAT
THEY ARE TRYING TO HAVE THE LAKE COOL DOWN THE AIRMASS TOO MUCH.
DECIDED THAT THE ECMWF/MOSGUIDE LOOKED CORRECT SO WENT WITH THE
60S TOMORROW. COULD SEE TEMPS GET HIGHER ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET
GOOD MIXING FROM THE SUNLIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
A VERY BUSY EXTENDED FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE MIDWEST...WITH
GROWING CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD RAINS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CUT OFF AND FLOODING THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
REMAIN CUT OFF THROUGH FRIDAY....BEFORE PHASING BACK INTO THE FLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS PROCESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE EXACT
TRACK OF HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN IS NOT YET KNOW...AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED IN ALL CWA AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
POPS ARE APPROACHING CATEGORICAL LEVELS FOR THIS REASON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD...AS THE ALREADY MILD AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS NOT
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUD FORMATION UNTIL AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE RAINY AND SHOWERY LATE WEEKEND...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL SEE TRANSITION TO ANOTHER QUICK MOVING STORM. THIS STORM IS
WIDELY DIFFERENT IN MODEL FORECASTS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A NORTHERN
SOLUTION WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY...AND
THE ECMWF REMAINING FARTHER SOUTH WITH A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. THIS
EVENT WILL BE A BLEND OF MODELS IN OUR EXTENDED FORECAST...AND DOES
NOT REPRESENT EITHER THE WARM AND DRY GFS NOR THE COOLER AND WET
ECMWF...THOUGH IN TIME WE SHOULD TREND TOWARD ONE OR THE OTHER
SOLUTIONS. BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...MUCH COOLER WEATHER LOOKS TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TO END THE
WEEK.
ERVIN
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS 2-6SM IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY AM...ESPECIALLY
IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. HAVE MENTION OF FOG
AT CID BASED ON VERY LOW SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. WHILE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE OTHER SITES... THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND AND BROKEN COVERAGE OF CIRRUS
MAKES CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION. ASIDE FROM
ANY EARLY AM PATCHY FOG EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO E/SE 5-10 KTS ON FRIDAY... AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
254 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS OUR CWA BETWEEN
THESE FEATURE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY LAYER. AT THE SURFACE
STRONG LEE TROUGH IN COLORADO HAS LED TO TIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
AND GUSTY WINDS (25-30KT) ACROSS OUR CWA.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WINDS MAY
REMAIN 10-15KT IN THE WEST AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTHWARD MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BAND OF O
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC AXIS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND ROTATING TOWARDS OUR CWA. CURRENT TREND FROM GFS/ECMWF
NOW MATCHES UP WITH NAM/ARW/NMM WITH THIS REMAINING FURTHER EAST AND
RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT OUR CWA MAY BE MISSED COMPLETELY (HILL
CITY/NORTON STILL SEEING A BETTER CHANCE). WHILE STILL SHOWING THE
POSSIBLY FOR INCREASING STRATUS IN OUR FAR EAST...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED MUCH DRIER IN THE BL CONDITIONS.
I REMOVED DRIZZLE MENTION IN THE MORNING AND I TRENDED POPS BACK TO
20 PERCENT...THOUGH IT KEPT SIMILAR TIMING/POSITION TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUITY JUST IN CASE. THIS ALSO RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES
COULD CLEAR RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES (70S)...AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS. CONSERVATIVE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN THIS
DIRECTION...AND IF THIS IS HOW IT PLAYS OUT THE DAYTIME PERIOD COULD
END UP BEING MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES FOR RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A BAND OF SATURATED AIR MOVES WESTWARD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MAIN LIFT WITH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
BE ABOVE IT IN THE DRIER AIR. AM THINKING THIS...ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA. MODELS
DISAGREE WITH HOW FAR WEST THE RAINFALL WILL EXTEND...SO WENT WITH
THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT. IF RAIN DOES DEVELOP...EXPECT THERE TO ONLY
BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
OVERNIGHT THE SATURATED LAYER WILL DEEPEN TO THE SURFACE...CAUSING
FOG TO FORM. EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN ALONG/EAST OF THE DRY LINE
THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE KS/CO BORDER...WITH THE DENSEST FOG OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY MORNING THE FOG WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. THIS WILL LEAD
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO DECLINE BY MID AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH.
MONDAY HIGHS WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WHICH MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL GIVEN THE FORECAST WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LATE MONDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME ISOLATED RAINFALL MAY MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE CENTER ELONGATING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...GIVING THE AREA ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE SNOW IF
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXTEND INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVES
OVER THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE FROM THE NORTH AFTER
MONDAY...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE BELOW 12KT AFTER SUNSET BEFORE INCREASING SATURDAY WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...TDS FINALLY MIXED THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO DECREASE RH VALUES TO THE
15-20% RANGE. IT DOESNT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE RH AT 15% FOR THE
3HR NECESSARY FOR A RFW OR FOR A LARGE AREA OF ANY INDIVIDUAL
COUNTY. ON SATURDAY...I HAVE CONCERNS THAT IF CLEARING TAKES
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 AS ADVERTISED BY LATEST HI RES MODELS
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SIMILAR SITUATION AS TODAY (NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER). I WILL KEEP MENTION LIMITED TO HWO FOR THESE
PERIODS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25 WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL ANY FURTHER. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO DECLINE BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
NOT ALLOW FOR A MORE THAN A COUPLE HOUR DURATION OF NEAR CRITERIA
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE THE WINDS FALL BELOW CRITERIA.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND FOR THE WEST HALF WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY
THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR/JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
219 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS OUR CWA BETWEEN
THESE FEATURE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY LAYER. AT THE SURFACE
STRONG LEE TROUGH IN COLORADO HAS LED TO TIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
AND GUSTY WINDS (25-30KT) ACROSS OUR CWA.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WINDS MAY
REMAIN 10-15KT IN THE WEST AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTHWARD MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BAND OF O
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC AXIS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND ROTATING TOWARDS OUR CWA. CURRENT TREND FROM GFS/ECMWF
NOW MATCHES UP WITH NAM/ARW/NMM WITH THIS REMAINING FURTHER EAST AND
RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT OUR CWA MAY BE MISSED COMPLETELY (HILL
CITY/NORTON STILL SEEING A BETTER CHANCE). WHILE STILL SHOWING THE
POSSIBLY FOR INCREASING STRATUS IN OUR FAR EAST...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED MUCH DRIER IN THE BL CONDITIONS.
I REMOVED DRIZZLE MENTION IN THE MORNING AND I TRENDED POPS BACK TO
20 PERCENT...THOUGH IT KEPT SIMILAR TIMING/POSITION TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUITY JUST IN CASE. THIS ALSO RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES
COULD CLEAR RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES (70S)...AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS. CONSERVATIVE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN THIS
DIRECTION...AND IF THIS IS HOW IT PLAYS OUT THE DAYTIME PERIOD COULD
END UP BEING MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY DOES GIVE WAY TO A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE FOR THE
MONDAY NIGH TIMEFRAME...CLEARING THE AREA GOING INTO TUESDAY. MODELS
BRING THIS SHORTWAVE TO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGION BY
MIDWEEK...FORMING A STALLED CUTOFF LOW. IN TANDEM...H5 AMPLIFIED
RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS SET UP THRU THE WEEK...THE CWA WILL SEE A
PATTERN SHIFT FROM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...TO MORE NORMAL/JUST BELOW
NORMAL AT TIMES. THE BUILDUP OF THE H5 RIDGE TO THE WEST DOES SET UP
NNW FLOW FOR THE PLAINS REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE THE TRI STATE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL AID
IN DRAGGING DOWN STRONGER COLDER AIR BEHIND THEM AS IT EXITS EAST.
FOR PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION WHILE THE AREA STILL FAIRLY WARM FROM DAYTIME
HEATING...AND WITH ITS QUICK MOVEMENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE
INFLUX...QPF WILL BE LOW AND CONFINED MOSTLY TO NORTHERN AREAS BASED
ON CURRENT MODEL TRACK. WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE SYSTEM TRANSITION
WILL PROMPT A MENTION OF THUNDER. SOME LINGERING -RW POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...BUT REGION BEGINS TO DRY OUT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM DOES MAINLY TRAVEL SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY. COLDER
AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA WILL PROMPT MENTION OF -SW EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NO ACCUM EXPECTED. THE
CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM PUTS SOUTHERN ZONES WITH BESTS CHANCES
TO SEE LIMITED QPF.
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...THEN TRANSITION DOWN
THRU THE 50S DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME...WITH 40S IN SOME LOCALES
BY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TRANSITION DOWNWARD
FROM MAINLY THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT...DOWN INTO THE 20S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
IN ABSENCE OF ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED
SYSTEMS...THE REGION WILL AGAIN BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOW RH READINGS DUE
TO DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW. WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS
SYSTEM EXITS...USHERING IN THE DRIER AIR. DAYTIME WINDS COULD GUSTS
IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE THRU THE DAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE BELOW 12KT AFTER SUNSET BEFORE INCREASING SATURDAY WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...TDS FINALLY MIXED THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO DECREASE RH VALUES TO THE
15-20% RANGE. IT DOESNT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE RH AT 15% FOR THE
3HR NECESSARY FOR A RFW OR FOR A LARGE AREA OF ANY INDIVIDUAL
COUNTY. ON SATURDAY...I HAVE CONCERNS THAT IF CLEARING TAKES
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 AS ADVERTISED BY LATEST HI RES MODELS
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SIMILAR SITUATION AS TODAY (NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER). I WILL KEEP MENTION LIMITED TO HWO FOR THESE
PERIODS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1134 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL FROM KAEX TO KLFT AND
KARA, HOWEVER THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG MAY OCCUR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
UPDATE...
RADAR IS INDICATING RAINS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS SE TX AND SRN LA
AS THE UPPER LVL LOW IS STILL ANCHORED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE
LOCATED NEAR HOU TMRW. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO EXIT CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND LOWER ACADIANA. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES TODAY...BUT THINK THAT MVFR CIGS WILL
BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH VFR CEILINGS
FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. WILL BRING BACK MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
UPDATE...
PER LATEST TRENDS OF STRONGEST SHRA/TSRA MOVING FASTER INLAND OVER
LA AND HRRR FORECAST FINALLY COMING ABOARD...LOWERED POPS AND SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE SOONER THIS MORNING FROM W TO EAST THIS MORNING. STILL COULD
HAVE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GULF...THUS LEAVING 40-60%
LATER THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SLOW MOVING VIGOROUS UPPER STORM
SYSTEM OVER OLD MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY IN S TX ALMOST OVER
BROWNSVILLE...CONTINUING TO PUMP SHRA/TSRA OVER MOST OF THE GULF
SPREADING N INTO SE TX/LA/MS THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...RADAR
SHOWING ONE SIGNIFICANT PULSE OF ENERGY AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SPREADING INLAND ACROSS C
AND SC LA FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THUS...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER C AND SC LA...AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. FURTHER INTO THE GULF...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...AND PROGGED TO SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS
MORNING ACROSS SE TX/LA. TRIED TO TIME THE PERIODS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN IN 3 HRLY SEGMENTS...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN NOW MOVING INLAND FASTER...LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SE TX/C AND
S LA THRU 6 PM TODAY. FOR THE SE TX...EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.
FOR C AND S LA...EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES.
THE UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING NE SAT AND OUT OF
OUR REGION BY SAT NIGHT. SO...MIGHT HAVE A BREAK THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECTING ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP BEFORE THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS NE LATE SAT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ARKLATEX...BUT
LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWN MUCH LESS MOISTURE ALOFT TO WORK
WITH SUN...SO AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE WELL INTO TUE. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FOR THU/FRI...COULD BE A WET COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A GULF LOW AND STALLED FRONT.
DML
MARINE...
ELEVATED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN 20-60NM MARINE ZONES
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...SUBSIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. FOR THIS...GOING
WITH A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S OVER
LOWER/MID 60S WATER TEMPS AROUND VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS...AREAS
OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD LIFT A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY....DIMINISHING SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
DML
HYDROLOGY...
RECORD POOL LEVELS AND RELEASES AT TOLEDO BEND (LAST REPORT
YESTERDAY WAS 174.36 FT WITH RELEASES OVER 200,000 CFS) HAS
RESULTED IN RECORD FLOODING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM THE SABINE
RIVER AT BURKEVILLE...WITH A READING OF 52.6 FEET AT 1 AM (OLD
RECORD WAS 48.1 FEET ON 02/01/1999). MAJOR FLOODING IS ONGOING
AND WILL CONTINUE FURTHER DOWN THE SABINE AT BON WIER...AND
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE RECORD LEVEL AT DEWEYVILLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...BAYOU ANACOCO NEAR ROSEPINE HAS ALSO BROKE A RECORD
LEVEL REPORTING AT 29.0 FT AT 1:45 AM (OLD RECORD WAS 28.4 FEET ON
05/19/1953). ALONG THE CALCASIEU RIVER...MODERATE TO MAJOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM
GLENMORA TO OLD TOWN BAY.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 62 74 58 / 70 40 50 20
LCH 75 62 75 62 / 50 30 30 10
LFT 75 64 76 61 / 60 50 50 10
BPT 76 61 75 63 / 50 20 30 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
041>045-052>055-073-074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GMZ472-475.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
927 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
RADAR IS INDICATING RAINS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS SE TX AND SRN LA
AS THE UPPER LVL LOW IS STILL ANCHORED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE
LOCATED NEAR HOU TMRW. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO EXIT CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND LOWER ACADIANA. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES TODAY...BUT THINK THAT MVFR CIGS WILL
BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH VFR CEILINGS
FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. WILL BRING BACK MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
UPDATE...
PER LATEST TRENDS OF STRONGEST SHRA/TSRA MOVING FASTER INLAND OVER
LA AND HRRR FORECAST FINALLY COMING ABOARD...LOWERED POPS AND SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE SOONER THIS MORNING FROM W TO EAST THIS MORNING. STILL COULD
HAVE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GULF...THUS LEAVING 40-60%
LATER THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SLOW MOVING VIGOROUS UPPER STORM
SYSTEM OVER OLD MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY IN S TX ALMOST OVER
BROWNSVILLE...CONTINUING TO PUMP SHRA/TSRA OVER MOST OF THE GULF
SPREADING N INTO SE TX/LA/MS THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...RADAR
SHOWING ONE SIGNIFICANT PULSE OF ENERGY AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SPREADING INLAND ACROSS C
AND SC LA FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THUS...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER C AND SC LA...AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. FURTHER INTO THE GULF...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...AND PROGGED TO SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS
MORNING ACROSS SE TX/LA. TRIED TO TIME THE PERIODS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN IN 3 HRLY SEGMENTS...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN NOW MOVING INLAND FASTER...LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SE TX/C AND
S LA THRU 6 PM TODAY. FOR THE SE TX...EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.
FOR C AND S LA...EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES.
THE UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING NE SAT AND OUT OF
OUR REGION BY SAT NIGHT. SO...MIGHT HAVE A BREAK THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECTING ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP BEFORE THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS NE LATE SAT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ARKLATEX...BUT
LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWN MUCH LESS MOISTURE ALOFT TO WORK
WITH SUN...SO AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE WELL INTO TUE. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FOR THU/FRI...COULD BE A WET COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A GULF LOW AND STALLED FRONT.
DML
MARINE...
ELEVATED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN 20-60NM MARINE ZONES
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...SUBSIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. FOR THIS...GOING
WITH A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S OVER
LOWER/MID 60S WATER TEMPS AROUND VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS...AREAS
OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD LIFT A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY....DIMINISHING SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
DML
HYDROLOGY...
RECORD POOL LEVELS AND RELEASES AT TOLEDO BEND (LAST REPORT
YESTERDAY WAS 174.36 FT WITH RELEASES OVER 200,000 CFS) HAS
RESULTED IN RECORD FLOODING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM THE SABINE
RIVER AT BURKEVILLE...WITH A READING OF 52.6 FEET AT 1 AM (OLD
RECORD WAS 48.1 FEET ON 02/01/1999). MAJOR FLOODING IS ONGOING
AND WILL CONTINUE FURTHER DOWN THE SABINE AT BON WIER...AND
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE RECORD LEVEL AT DEWEYVILLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...BAYOU ANACOCO NEAR ROSEPINE HAS ALSO BROKE A RECORD
LEVEL REPORTING AT 29.0 FT AT 1:45 AM (OLD RECORD WAS 28.4 FEET ON
05/19/1953). ALONG THE CALCASIEU RIVER...MODERATE TO MAJOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM
GLENMORA TO OLD TOWN BAY.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 62 74 58 / 70 40 50 20
LCH 75 62 75 62 / 50 30 30 10
LFT 75 64 76 61 / 60 50 50 10
BPT 76 61 75 63 / 50 20 30 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
041>045-052>055-073-074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GMZ472-475.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
542 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO EXIT CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND LOWER ACADIANA. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES TODAY...BUT THINK THAT MVFR CIGS WILL
BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH VFR CEILINGS
FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. WILL BRING BACK MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
UPDATE...
PER LATEST TRENDS OF STRONGEST SHRA/TSRA MOVING FASTER INLAND OVER
LA AND HRRR FORECAST FINALLY COMING ABOARD...LOWERED POPS AND SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE SOONER THIS MORNING FROM W TO EAST THIS MORNING. STILL COULD
HAVE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GULF...THUS LEAVING 40-60%
LATER THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SLOW MOVING VIGOROUS UPPER STORM
SYSTEM OVER OLD MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY IN S TX ALMOST OVER
BROWNSVILLE...CONTINUING TO PUMP SHRA/TSRA OVER MOST OF THE GULF
SPREADING N INTO SE TX/LA/MS THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...RADAR
SHOWING ONE SIGNIFICANT PULSE OF ENERGY AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SPREADING INLAND ACROSS C
AND SC LA FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THUS...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER C AND SC LA...AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. FURTHER INTO THE GULF...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...AND PROGGED TO SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS
MORNING ACROSS SE TX/LA. TRIED TO TIME THE PERIODS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN IN 3 HRLY SEGMENTS...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN NOW MOVING INLAND FASTER...LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SE TX/C AND
S LA THRU 6 PM TODAY. FOR THE SE TX...EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.
FOR C AND S LA...EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES.
THE UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING NE SAT AND OUT OF
OUR REGION BY SAT NIGHT. SO...MIGHT HAVE A BREAK THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECTING ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP BEFORE THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS NE LATE SAT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ARKLATEX...BUT
LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWN MUCH LESS MOISTURE ALOFT TO WORK
WITH SUN...SO AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE WELL INTO TUE. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FOR THU/FRI...COULD BE A WET COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A GULF LOW AND STALLED FRONT.
DML
MARINE...
ELEVATED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN 20-60NM MARINE ZONES
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...SUBSIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. FOR THIS...GOING
WITH A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S OVER
LOWER/MID 60S WATER TEMPS AROUND VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS...AREAS
OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD LIFT A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY....DIMINISHING SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
DML
HYDROLOGY...
RECORD POOL LEVELS AND RELEASES AT TOLEDO BEND (LAST REPORT
YESTERDAY WAS 174.36 FT WITH RELEASES OVER 200,000 CFS) HAS
RESULTED IN RECORD FLOODING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM THE SABINE
RIVER AT BURKEVILLE...WITH A READING OF 52.6 FEET AT 1 AM (OLD
RECORD WAS 48.1 FEET ON 02/01/1999). MAJOR FLOODING IS ONGOING
AND WILL CONTINUE FURTHER DOWN THE SABINE AT BON WIER...AND
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE RECORD LEVEL AT DEWEYVILLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...BAYOU ANACOCO NEAR ROSEPINE HAS ALSO BROKE A RECORD
LEVEL REPORTING AT 29.0 FT AT 1:45 AM (OLD RECORD WAS 28.4 FEET ON
05/19/1953). ALONG THE CALCASIEU RIVER...MODERATE TO MAJOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM
GLENMORA TO OLD TOWN BAY.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 62 74 58 / 100 40 50 20
LCH 75 62 75 62 / 60 30 30 10
LFT 75 64 76 61 / 100 50 50 10
BPT 76 61 75 63 / 60 20 30 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
052>055-073-074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GMZ472-475.
&&
$$
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
426 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
PER LATEST TRENDS OF STRONGEST SHRA/TSRA MOVING FASTER INLAND OVER
LA AND HRRR FORECAST FINALLY COMING ABOARD...LOWERED POPS AND SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE SOONER THIS MORNING FROM W TO EAST THIS MORNING. STILL COULD
HAVE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GULF...THUS LEAVING 40-60%
LATER THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SLOW MOVING VIGOROUS UPPER STORM
SYSTEM OVER OLD MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY IN S TX ALMOST OVER
BROWNSVILLE...CONTINUING TO PUMP SHRA/TSRA OVER MOST OF THE GULF
SPREADING N INTO SE TX/LA/MS THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...RADAR
SHOWING ONE SIGNIFICANT PULSE OF ENERGY AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SPREADING INLAND ACROSS C
AND SC LA FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THUS...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER C AND SC LA...AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. FURTHER INTO THE GULF...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...AND PROGGED TO SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS
MORNING ACROSS SE TX/LA. TRIED TO TIME THE PERIODS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN IN 3 HRLY SEGMENTS...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN NOW MOVING INLAND FASTER...LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SE TX/C AND
S LA THRU 6 PM TODAY. FOR THE SE TX...EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.
FOR C AND S LA...EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES.
THE UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING NE SAT AND OUT OF
OUR REGION BY SAT NIGHT. SO...MIGHT HAVE A BREAK THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECTING ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP BEFORE THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS NE LATE SAT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ARKLATEX...BUT
LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWN MUCH LESS MOISTURE ALOFT TO WORK
WITH SUN...SO AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE WELL INTO TUE. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FOR THU/FRI...COULD BE A WET COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A GULF LOW AND STALLED FRONT.
DML
MARINE...
ELEVATED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN 20-60NM MARINE ZONES
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...SUBSIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. FOR THIS...GOING
WITH A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S OVER
LOWER/MID 60S WATER TEMPS AROUND VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS...AREAS
OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD LIFT A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY....DIMINISHING SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
DML
HYDROLOGY...
RECORD POOL LEVELS AND RELEASES AT TOLEDO BEND (LAST REPORT
YESTERDAY WAS 174.36 FT WITH RELEASES OVER 200,000 CFS) HAS
RESULTED IN RECORD FLOODING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM THE SABINE
RIVER AT BURKEVILLE...WITH A READING OF 52.6 FEET AT 1 AM (OLD
RECORD WAS 48.1 FEET ON 02/01/1999). MAJOR FLOODING IS ONGOING
AND WILL CONTINUE FURTHER DOWN THE SABINE AT BON WIER...AND
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE RECORD LEVEL AT DEWEYVILLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...BAYOU ANACOCO NEAR ROSEPINE HAS ALSO BROKE A RECORD
LEVEL REPORTING AT 29.0 FT AT 1:45 AM (OLD RECORD WAS 28.4 FEET ON
05/19/1953). ALONG THE CALCASIEU RIVER...MODERATE TO MAJOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM
GLENMORA TO OLD TOWN BAY.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 62 74 58 / 100 40 50 20
LCH 75 62 75 62 / 60 30 30 10
LFT 75 64 76 61 / 100 50 50 10
BPT 76 61 75 63 / 60 20 30 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
052>055-073-074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GMZ472-475.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
401 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS
AND MORE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
BRINGING WITH IT A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS.
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MODEL SOUNDINGS
HOLD ON TO A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS. THE AIR ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL BE VERY DRY SO EXPECT
THE DRY AIR ALOFT TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT THE SATURATED LAYER BELOW.
THE PROBLEM LIES ON TIMING THIS. THE OTHER PROBLEM WILL BE THE
BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD WHICH SHOULD COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY. THIS WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE AND SLOW THE MIXING PROCESS.
HAVE INDICATED A DECREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF HIGH CIRRUS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS
FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH. STILL SEEING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL PROGRESS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL ACTUALLY FALL. HIGHS ABOUT 20
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY.
MAINTAINED HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
A DEEP SOUTH CUT-OFF LOW IMPROVES ASCENT FIELDS AND SPREADS RAIN
OVER ENTIRE REGION. THE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED TO CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AN
ADJUSTED SUPERBLEND OF MODELS WAS USED FOR LONG TERM PROGNOSIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT THIS CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
REGION OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT IFR AND MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 14Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL END BY 9Z AREA WIDE. THE LATEST
GRIDDED LAMP AND RUC13 HAVE DELAYED DEPARTURE OF MVFR CLOUDS UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON SO PUSHED BACK ONSET TIME OF VFR CLOUDS INTO THE
16-20Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS
SCOUR A FEW HOURS SOONER GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. ONCE VFR IS
ESTABLISHED WILL CARRY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1257 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
BEHIND THE RAIN...A DRY AND COOLER DAY. RAIN WILL RETURN LATER
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. COMPOSED THE POP
FORECAST USING A COMBINATION OF HIRES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS.
TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES DATA.
FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND BRINGING
WITH IT A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...HIGHS WILL STILL BE
NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS
FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH. STILL SEEING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL PROGRESS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL ACTUALLY FALL. HIGHS ABOUT 20
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY.
MAINTAINED HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
A DEEP SOUTH CUT-OFF LOW IMPROVES ASCENT FIELDS AND SPREADS RAIN
OVER ENTIRE REGION. THE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED TO CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AN
ADJUSTED SUPERBLEND OF MODELS WAS USED FOR LONG TERM PROGNOSIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT THIS CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
REGION OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT IFR AND MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 14Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL END BY 9Z AREA WIDE. THE LATEST
GRIDDED LAMP AND RUC13 HAVE DELAYED DEPARTURE OF MVFR CLOUDS UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON SO PUSHED BACK ONSET TIME OF VFR CLOUDS INTO THE
16-20Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS
SCOUR A FEW HOURS SOONER GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. ONCE VFR IS
ESTABLISHED WILL CARRY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1152 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH AREA WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD CLEAR THE SKIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND THAT SHOULD
ALLOW OUR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A STORM SYSTEM COMING AT US FROM THE PACIFIC WILL MERGE
WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL
BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. FINALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...YET
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWER BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IT WILL BRING BACK THE
COLD AIR BY THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
OUR BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW QUICKLY DO THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THE SOONER THEY DO...THE COLDER IT WILL BE
FRIDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING THAT SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF STATES AND SEE HOW MUCH OF THAT MOISTURE GETS TO MICHIGAN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SEE THE EXTEND DISCUSSION FOR THAT).
AS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS THERE ARE TWO FEATURES THAT TYPICALLY ARE
GOOD AT PURGING THEM OUT OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SKIES. THOSE WOULD
BE THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET (UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC) AND SURFACE WINDS TURN ANTICYCLONIC. BOTH OF THOSE
THINGS HAPPEN TONIGHT. CURIOUSLY IF ONE OVERLAYS THE POLAR JET
OVER THE CLOUD IMAGES ONE CAN SEE HOW AS THE UPPER JET MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA... THE LOW CLOUDS DO IN FACT CLEAR OUT (SEE NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM). THE UPPER JET CROSSES OUR AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME ANTICYCLONIC ABOUT THE
SAME TIME. BOTH THE RAP MODEL (WHICH IS MUCH SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
SKY TONIGHT) AND THE NAM...WHICH CLEARS SKIES WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT
DO SHOW THE SKIES BEING CLEAR BY MORNING. I AM THINKING SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY 3 TO 5 AM. IF NOT. OUR LOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WILL BE TO COLD.
ANYWAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY THEN MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE WESTERN SYSTEM AND THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
HEAD OUR WAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. ANY RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. AS THERE IS
TO MUCH DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE SURFACE WARM FRONT UP
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WEAKNESS
IN THE STABILITY...LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE ALL SUPPORT HIGH POPS.
WILL RAISE THE POPS AND INCREASE THE QPF FOR THIS FEATURE.
A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY. WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...PWAT VALUES
UP OVER AN INCH...AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AS THE WAVE PASSES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND. AT THIS POINT WILL INCREASE
POPS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY...SO THAT WILL BE THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST RISK FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
A PACIFIC MID LEVEL WAVE ARRIVING EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME DECENT DYNAMICS AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT NEARS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL KEEP A RISK FOR SHOWERS
GOING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR MKG WHERE
SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL COULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT
08Z. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT 60
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN MEANS LIGHT WINDS. THE SYSTEMS
MOVING TOWARD US SATURDAY WILL NOT HAVE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SO WINDS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG THEN EITHER. SO...BOTTOM LINE
I SEE NO HEADLINE THREAT TILL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
A HANDFULL OF RIVERS ARE STILL DEALING WITH LOWLAND FLOODING. MOST
ARE WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS. OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD PROLONG THE DURATION THAT SOME RIVERS SPEND
ABOVE BANKFULL... BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO WORSEN THE EXTENT OF
THE FLOODING.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1143 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS DEEP MIXING ACROSS NRN NEB THIS AFTN WITH
THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD REACH
NEAR 700MB. FARTHER SOUTH...THESE HEIGHT APPROACH 725- 750MB WHICH
IS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES A MIDDLE OF
ROAD APPROACH...CLOSE TO THE RAP MODEL...FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 70S NORTH...LOWER 70S SOUTH. NEARLY FULL SUN IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOW PRESSURE WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT A RATHER MESSY PATTERN ALOFT...BUT REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP OVER TEXAS AND IS FORCED NORTHEAST BY AN
UPSTREAM FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE. THE BEST DPVA/MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE FA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS AND NOT ALL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN AS THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
EVEN IF RAIN IS NOT REALIZED WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS STRATUS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WHERE LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE EARLY...HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND CLEARING SKIES...HIGHS WILL
RESPOND NICELY AND RISE ABOVE 70F ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST PLACES.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE BEGINS IT/S
INITIAL BREAKDOWN TO THE EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S APPEAR LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. SW
WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL TRANSPORT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH NEAR CRITICAL RH FORECAST FOR SW NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE
LOW RH...WINDS DO NOT FAVOR LARGE FIRE SPREAD UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. NOTE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT
FAVORS LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE MODELS
SUGGESTING SOME QPF FOR THE CWA. THE TREND FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
IS A WEAKER OPEN WAVE WITH LESSER IMPACTS...THUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE BECOMING LESS CERTAIN. AT A MINIMUM...SPOTTY SHOWERS OR
EVEN A TSTORM /MODELS INDICATE UP TO A 200 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE MONDAY
EVENING/ WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COOLING TREND THEN FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MODELS KEEP THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH UNTIL THEN...KEEPING THE REGION UNSETTLED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 10
TO 20 KTS TODAY...DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
A BLEND OF THE HRRR...RAP AND HRRR EXPERIMENTAL MODELS COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S PRODUCES RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 12
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP IN MANY
AREAS HOWEVER THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTN COULD PRESENT
A WEAKNESS IN THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...SWRN NEB AND
FAR NRN NEB.
THE LOESS PLAINS WILL BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
518 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS DEEP MIXING ACROSS NRN NEB THIS AFTN WITH
THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD REACH
NEAR 700MB. FARTHER SOUTH...THESE HEIGHT APPROACH 725- 750MB WHICH
IS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES A MIDDLE OF
ROAD APPROACH...CLOSE TO THE RAP MODEL...FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 70S NORTH...LOWER 70S SOUTH. NEARLY FULL SUN IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOW PRESSURE WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT A RATHER MESSY PATTERN ALOFT...BUT REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP OVER TEXAS AND IS FORCED NORTHEAST BY AN
UPSTREAM FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE. THE BEST DPVA/MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE FA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS AND NOT ALL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN AS THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
EVEN IF RAIN IS NOT REALIZED WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS STRATUS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WHERE LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE EARLY...HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND CLEARING SKIES...HIGHS WILL
RESPOND NICELY AND RISE ABOVE 70F ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST PLACES.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE BEGINS IT/S
INITIAL BREAKDOWN TO THE EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S APPEAR LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. SW
WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL TRANSPORT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH NEAR CRITICAL RH FORECAST FOR SW NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE
LOW RH...WINDS DO NOT FAVOR LARGE FIRE SPREAD UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. NOTE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT
FAVORS LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE MODELS
SUGGESTING SOME QPF FOR THE CWA. THE TREND FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
IS A WEAKER OPEN WAVE WITH LESSER IMPACTS...THUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE BECOMING LESS CERTAIN. AT A MINIMUM...SPOTTY SHOWERS OR
EVEN A TSTORM /MODELS INDICATE UP TO A 200 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE MONDAY
EVENING/ WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COOLING TREND THEN FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MODELS KEEP THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH UNTIL THEN...KEEPING THE REGION UNSETTLED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SRN
CANADA...WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
A BLEND OF THE HRRR...RAP AND HRRR EXPERIMENTAL MODELS COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S PRODUCES RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 12
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP IN MANY
AREAS HOWEVER THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTN COULD PRESENT
A WEAKNESS IN THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...SWRN NEB AND
FAR NRN NEB.
THE LOESS PLAINS WILL BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 9 PM CST /8
PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS DEEP MIXING ACROSS NRN NEB THIS AFTN WITH
THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD REACH
NEAR 700MB. FARTHER SOUTH...THESE HEIGHT APPROACH 725- 750MB WHICH
IS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES A MIDDLE OF
ROAD APPROACH...CLOSE TO THE RAP MODEL...FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 70S NORTH...LOWER 70S SOUTH. NEARLY FULL SUN IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOW PRESSURE WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT A RATHER MESSY PATTERN ALOFT...BUT REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP OVER TEXAS AND IS FORCED NORTHEAST BY AN
UPSTREAM FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE. THE BEST DPVA/MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE FA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS AND NOT ALL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN AS THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
EVEN IF RAIN IS NOT REALIZED WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS STRATUS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WHERE LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE EARLY...HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND CLEARING SKIES...HIGHS WILL
RESPOND NICELY AND RISE ABOVE 70F ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST PLACES.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE BEGINS IT/S
INITIAL BREAKDOWN TO THE EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S APPEAR LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. SW
WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL TRANSPORT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH NEAR CRITICAL RH FORECAST FOR SW NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE
LOW RH...WINDS DO NOT FAVOR LARGE FIRE SPREAD UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. NOTE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT
FAVORS LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE MODELS
SUGGESTING SOME QPF FOR THE CWA. THE TREND FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
IS A WEAKER OPEN WAVE WITH LESSER IMPACTS...THUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE BECOMING LESS CERTAIN. AT A MINIMUM...SPOTTY SHOWERS OR
EVEN A TSTORM /MODELS INDICATE UP TO A 200 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE MONDAY
EVENING/ WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COOLING TREND THEN FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MODELS KEEP THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH UNTIL THEN...KEEPING THE REGION UNSETTLED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO FOLLOW. LIGHT
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY IN THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL BE COMMON. ONCE SUN SET
OCCURS...DECOUPLING WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
A BLEND OF THE HRRR...RAP AND HRRR EXPERIMENTAL MODELS COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S PRODUCES RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 12
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP IN MANY
AREAS HOWEVER THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTN COULD PRESENT
A WEAKNESS IN THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...SWRN NEB AND
FAR NRN NEB.
THE LOESS PLAINS WILL BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 9 PM CST /8
PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
THE VERY LAST SLIVER OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE CAVALIER-NECHE AREA
OF PEMBINA COUNTY WILL CLEAR OUT BY 07Z. OTHERWISE SEEING SFC
WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP IN THE RRV AND ERN ND WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING AT TIMES TO OVER 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE AS
THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASES. TEMPS ALSO STEADY IN MANY AREAS OR IN
SOME CASES WHERE CLEARING WAS TOO LATE TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPS RISING
A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING. NO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO
THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LINGERING IN THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE CLEARING WITH
THE 18Z RUN...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE THIEF RIVER FALLS TO ROSEAU
AREAS BY SUNSET. TRIMMED HIGHS/EVENING TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR PARTS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATE OR
NOT BEFORE SUNSET. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TONIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE OR NEAR FREEZING
TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM FRIDAY AS TEMPS WILL
START OUT WARM WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE RECORDS ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S...SO EXPECTING TO BREAK THOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S IN THE GRAND FORKS AND FARGO AREAS EXPECTED. FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ALSO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
THE WARM AIR WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S (NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS) TO 60S ELSEWHERE. A PAIR OF UPPER
WAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
(SOUTH). INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A MORE PROGRESSIVE SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK...WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER SUN
NIGHT. 12Z GFS LESS STABLE THAN 00Z ECMWF...WITH NEG SHOWALTERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S...AND ELECT TO NOT INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR SUN NIGHT.
MID WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH THE ECWMF STALLING THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WHEREAS THE GFS LIFTS
THE UPPER LOW INTO CNTRL TO ERN ONTARIO BY 00Z THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL
START OUT AS RAIN TUESDAY AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MID WEEK AS COLDER
AIR IS PULLED IN BEHIND THE LOW. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON TRACK OF
SYSTEM AND WHEN THICKNESS VALUES WILL BEGIN TO FALL OFF...BUT
SUPERBLEND SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS-ECMWF.
EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME DECENT MOISTURE...HOWEVER A SHARP QPF
GRADIENT MOVING EAST TO WEST COULD LEAVE ERN ND MAINLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
A VFR FCST PD FOR THE TAF SITES AND ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE...THICKEST NORTH AND WEST AND
THINNEST SOUTH AND EAST PARTS OF THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THEN TURN SOUTHWEST AND WEST
OVER ERN ND FRI AFTN/EVE AND DIMINISH SOME.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1001 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...LEADING TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MENAGERIE OF CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. STRATUS
REMAINS ACROSS NRN KY...WRAPPING AROUND CINCINNATI AND UP ACROSS
THE MIAMI VALLEY INTO CENTRAL OHIO. MEANWHILE...A DRY SLOT IN THE
LOW CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY W TO THE
CINCY ERN SUBURBS...WHILE THE REAL CLEARING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRYING TO BUILD INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO FROM NRN
INDIANA.
BASED ON THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT UP
TO ABOUT H8....SO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND MIX
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...RESULTING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...LOWERED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING NORTH INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK 20-25 KNOT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL
PUSH UP TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOO...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY REMAINS FAIRLY MARGINAL BUT WITH A BIT
OF A DIURNAL UPTICK THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SECOND UPPER TROUGH...WITH A CLOSED LOW PRESENT...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO
WAVES...ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND BEYOND.
AGAIN...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDER...MAINLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE OVERALL SCENARIO THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD HAS BEEN HANDLED
QUITE WELL BY THE SUITE OF MODELS...IN TERMS OF BOTH TIMING AND THE
OVERALL PLACEMENT OF THE MAJOR FEATURES. THE SECOND TROUGH / UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF ITS
STRENGTH...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PRESENT SIGNIFICANT FORECAST
CHALLENGES. WHILE EARLIER ECMWF RUNS ALLOWED FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEHIND THE SECOND TROUGH...THE 12Z RUN ALIGNS WITH THE 12Z
GFS/CMC AND SUGGESTS A DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK RIDGING ON TUESDAY.
SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE
PRECIPITATION...SPECIFICS REGARDING ANY POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OR
GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE REFINED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY BECOMES LARGE.
THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF AN END TO THE WARM PATTERN ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. EVEN
WHERE RAIN OCCURS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S. ANY DRY PERIODS DURING THE DAY
WILL EASILY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S...ESPECIALLY
IN CLEARING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS MORNING WITH MOST SITES MVFR.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH DRIER AIR THAT IS
FORECASTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. LATEST RUN OF THE RAP HAS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND
SLOWLY ERODING. HAVE TRENDED TAFS MORE PESSIMISTIC TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. HOLDING IN THE MOISTURE SLIGHTLY LONGER MAKES SENSE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AREA IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH ALL
SITES SHOULD BE VFR. ON SATURDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE
EAST. MOISTURE VALUES WILL START TO RISE (PWATS APPROACHING 1.3"
ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM) BUT WITH WEAK FORCING THE ONSET TIMING
OF PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN. THE COVERAGE ALSO LOOKS TO BE LOWER AT
THIS TIME. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...IFR/MVFR CIG AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
653 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...LEADING TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL HANGING
IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW CLOUDS EXTEND
BACK TO ABOUT THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER BUT THERE ARE SOME ENHANCED
CIRRUS CLOUDS FARTHER BACK TO THE WEST. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BUT WITH PLENTY OF
FAIRLY OPAQUE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE THOSE...WILL LINGER MAINLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WE SHOULD THEN START
TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SUN WE END UP WITH LATER TODAY. WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE MID
50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING NORTH INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK 20-25 KNOT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL
PUSH UP TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOO...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY REMAINS FAIRLY MARGINAL BUT WITH A BIT
OF A DIURNAL UPTICK THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SECOND UPPER TROUGH...WITH A CLOSED LOW PRESENT...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO
WAVES...ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND BEYOND.
AGAIN...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDER...MAINLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE OVERALL SCENARIO THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD HAS BEEN HANDLED
QUITE WELL BY THE SUITE OF MODELS...IN TERMS OF BOTH TIMING AND THE
OVERALL PLACEMENT OF THE MAJOR FEATURES. THE SECOND TROUGH / UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF ITS
STRENGTH...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PRESENT SIGNIFICANT FORECAST
CHALLENGES. WHILE EARLIER ECMWF RUNS ALLOWED FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEHIND THE SECOND TROUGH...THE 12Z RUN ALIGNS WITH THE 12Z
GFS/CMC AND SUGGESTS A DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK RIDGING ON TUESDAY.
SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE
PRECIPITATION...SPECIFICS REGARDING ANY POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OR
GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE REFINED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY BECOMES LARGE.
THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF AN END TO THE WARM PATTERN ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. EVEN
WHERE RAIN OCCURS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S. ANY DRY PERIODS DURING THE DAY
WILL EASILY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S...ESPECIALLY
IN CLEARING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS MORNING WITH MOST SITES MVFR.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH DRIER AIR THAT IS
FORECASTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. LATEST RUN OF THE RAP HAS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND
SLOWLY ERODING. HAVE TRENDED TAFS MORE PESSIMISTIC TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. HOLDING IN THE MOISTURE SLIGHTLY LONGER MAKES SENSE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AREA IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH ALL
SITES SHOULD BE VFR. ON SATURDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE
EAST. MOISTURE VALUES WILL START TO RISE (PWATS APPROACHING 1.3"
ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM) BUT WITH WEAK FORCING THE ONSET TIMING
OF PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN. THE COVERAGE ALSO LOOKS TO BE LOWER AT
THIS TIME. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...IFR/MVFR CIG AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
925 AM PST FRI MAR 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF STORMS ARE ON TRACK TO BRING RAIN AND
WIND TO OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE COAST
TODAY, THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY FOR A 2-3 DAY PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON RAINFALL AMOUNT AND WE HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL
FLOOD WATCH FOR COOS, CURRY, JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. THIS
FLOOD WATCH PERTAINS TO LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. OF A
PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE CHETCO RIVER AND HUNTER CREEK IN
SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY WHERE HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY COULD EXACERBATE
THE RIVER HEIGHT. THE LATEST RAINFALL FORECAST ALSO BRINGS THE
COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE MONDAY AND WE HAVE
ISSUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MAIN STEM COQUILLE RIVER AT
COQUILLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ARE STILL POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS FOR THOSE AREAS WHERE WE ISSUED THE
AREAL FLOOD WATCH. THEREFORE WE ARE KEEPING THE HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK FOR THOSE AREAS.
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE WITH GALE
WARNING. ANOTHER STORM ON SUNDAY COULD PUSH THE WINDS TO HIGH
GALE.
WITH THE SNOW LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET, THE
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW THIS WEEKEND AND THE WINTER STORM
WARNING CONTINUES. SEE PDXWSWMFR FOR DETAILS. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION TODAY. HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND COULD BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS. IN
NORTHERN CAL, MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS NEAR MOUNT SHASTA. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT TONIGHT AT THE COAST AND INLAND WESTSIDE TERMINALS. GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING KLAMATH
FALLS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST FRI 11 MAR 2016...LOW PRESSURE JUST
WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PRODUCE SOME SOUTH WINDS TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS,
AS OBSERVED SEAS ARE ALREADY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND REACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT, BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE FOR A 6 HOUR PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH FRONT REACHING THE COAST AROUND 4 AM PST SATURDAY,
THEN MOVING ONSHORE. THE NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
ONE WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING. THE EC AND GFS SHOW A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR 135W SATURDAY EVENING, RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND MOVING
INSIDE OF 130 W EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE WASHINGTON COAST LATER SUNDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS
IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO WARRANT STORM FORCE
WINDS, BUT GALES ARE LIKELY.
FOR NOW IN ORDER TO AVOID CONFUSION, WE`LL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
UNTIL THE FIRST GALE WARNING EXPIRES. IF THAT WEREN`T ENOUGH, VERY
HIGH AND VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE IN SUNDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND HIGH SWELL COULD RESULT
IN DANGEROUS SEAS AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL
THIS PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER ENDS. -BPN/PETRUCELLI
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM PST FRI MAR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...11/00Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN INITIALLY SHOWS A
WAVE NUMBER OF THREE AROUND THE GLOBE...WHICH IS USUALLY A
STAGNANT OR RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURE ENOUGH...THERE IS REX
BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. HOWEVER...IT WILL MORPH TO A FOUR
WAVE PATTERN LATER ON TODAY...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A RESUMPTION
OF A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. IF THE 10/12Z AND 11/00Z EC
VERIFIES...THE THREE WAVE PATTERN WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A SIGNIFICANT BLOCK SETTING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CLOSER IN...IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED REX BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
SHORT WAVES EJECTED BY THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL BRING CONTINUED
ROUNDS OF WIND AND PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY DIRECTED INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THAT`S WHERE THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MEDFORD CWA WILL EXTEND FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA NORTHWEST
THROUGH WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AND
COAST RANGE. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATIC NORMALS FOR THIS DATE. WINDS WILL NOT BE A MAJOR
FACTOR...EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY. WITH 700 MB FLOW
PEAKING AT ABOUT 45 KT...IT WILL BE BREEZY THERE WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE AT WEED.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ONE WILL BE DIRECTED FARTHER NORTH. THE
INITIAL TARGET WILL BE THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST...BUT WILL
SHIFT FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME. THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WAVE
WILL STILL BE AROUND WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH YET
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND COAST
RANGE FROM CENTRAL OREGON DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ALL THIS WILL
OCCUR IN A COLDER THAN NORMAL ENVIRONMENT WITH SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNDAY HIGHS AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BY THIS TIME FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE PERSISTENT AND
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ALONG
THE COQUILLE RIVER FROM MYRTLE POINT TO THE OCEAN.
THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SNOW EVENT AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO HIGHER
WEST AND SOUTHWEST FACING TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE CASCADES...MAY
GET QUITE A BIT OF UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FEET THROUGHOUT THIS INTERVAL...SO AREAS
SUCH AS DIAMOND LAKE...CRATER LAKE...MOUNT ASHLAND...MOUNT
SHASTA...AND OTHER AREAS OVER 5000 FEET MAY WIND UP WITH 4 TO 6
FEET OF SNOW BY THE TIME IT ALL ENDS.
WEAKER WAVES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS INTERVAL. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE SATURDAY HIGHS...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY...
EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE CENTERPIECE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK. THE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES THE STORM TRACK BACK NORTH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION...FOR THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION TODAY. HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND COULD BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS. IN
NORTHERN CAL, MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS NEAR MOUNT SHASTA. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT TONIGHT AT THE COAST AND INLAND WESTSIDE TERMINALS. GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS
FOR THE TAF PERIOD. -PETRUCELLI
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST FRI 11 MAR 2016...STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 38N/130W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO NORTHERN CAL. HOWEVER THE 6Z NAM SHOWS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AROUND 4 AM PST THIS MORNING AND MOVING NORTH OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP ALSO HINTS AT THIS. IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT, THEN SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE, POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO, BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND REACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT, BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE FOR A 6 HOUR PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FRONT REACHING THE COAST AROUND 4 AM PST
SATURDAY, THEN MOVING ONSHORE. THE NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS ONE WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING. THE EC AND GFS SHOW
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 135W SATURDAY EVENING, RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AND MOVING INSIDE OF 130 W EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON COAST LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS MAY BE TOO FAR
NORTH TO WARRANT STORM FORCE WINDS, BUT GALES ARE LIKELY. FOR NOW
IN ORDER TO AVOID CONFUSION, WE`LL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES UNTIL
THE FIRST GALE WARNING EXPIRES. IF THAT WEREN`T ENOUGH, VERY HIGH
AND VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE IN SUNDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND HIGH SWELL COULD RESULT
IN DANGEROUS SEAS AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL
THIS PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER ENDS. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM PST SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR ORZ027-028.
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ021>024.
CA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
CAZ080>083.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM PST SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR CAZ082.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM PST SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR CAZ080.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM PST SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR CAZ083.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 AM PST SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
FJB/FJB/MAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MEDFORD OR
210 AM PST FRI MAR 11 2016
UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION
.DISCUSSION...11/00Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN INITIALLY SHOWS A
WAVE NUMBER OF THREE AROUND THE GLOBE...WHICH IS USUALLY A
STAGNANT OR RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURE ENOUGH...THERE IS REX
BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. HOWEVER...IT WILL MORPH TO A FOUR
WAVE PATTERN LATER ON TODAY...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A RESUMPTION
OF A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. IF THE 10/12Z AND 11/00Z EC
VERIFIES...THE THREE WAVE PATTERN WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A SIGNIFICANT BLOCK SETTING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CLOSER IN...IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED REX BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
SHORT WAVES EJECTED BY THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL BRING CONTINUED
ROUNDS OF WIND AND PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY DIRECTED INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THAT`S WHERE THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MEDFORD CWA WILL EXTEND FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA NORTHWEST
THROUGH WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AND
COAST RANGE. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATIC NORMALS FOR THIS DATE. WINDS WILL NOT BE A MAJOR
FACTOR...EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY. WITH 700 MB FLOW
PEAKING AT ABOUT 45 KT...IT WILL BE BREEZY THERE WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE AT WEED.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ONE WILL BE DIRECTED FARTHER NORTH. THE
INITIAL TARGET WILL BE THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST...BUT WILL
SHIFT FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME. THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WAVE
WILL STILL BE AROUND WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH YET
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND COAST
RANGE FROM CENTRAL OREGON DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ALL THIS WILL
OCCUR IN A COLDER THAN NORMAL ENVIRONMENT WITH SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNDAY HIGHS AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BY THIS TIME FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE PERSISTENT AND
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ALONG
THE COQUILLE RIVER FROM MYRTLE POINT TO THE OCEAN.
THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SNOW EVENT AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO HIGHER
WEST AND SOUTHWEST FACING TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE CASCADES...MAY
GET QUITE A BIT OF UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FEET THROUGHOUT THIS INTERVAL...SO AREAS
SUCH AS DIAMOND LAKE...CRATER LAKE...MOUNT ASHLAND...MOUNT
SHASTA...AND OTHER AREAS OVER 5000 FEET MAY WIND UP WITH 4 TO 6
FEET OF SNOW BY THE TIME IT ALL ENDS.
WEAKER WAVES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS INTERVAL. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE SATURDAY HIGHS...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY...
EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE CENTERPIECE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK. THE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES THE STORM TRACK BACK NORTH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/06Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN
BE EXPECTED IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR MOUNT SHASTA AS MOISTURE
RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN MAY ALSO BRING CIGS
DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORCAL AND SOUTHERN
KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST FRI 11 MAR 2016...STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 38N/130W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO NORTHERN CAL. HOWEVER THE 6Z NAM SHOWS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AROUND 4 AM PST THIS MORNING AND MOVING NORTH OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP ALSO HINTS AT THIS. IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT, THEN SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE, POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO, BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND REACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT, BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE FOR A 6 HOUR PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FRONT REACHING THE COAST AROUND 4 AM PST
SATURDAY, THEN MOVING ONSHORE. THE NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS ONE WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING. THE EC AND GFS SHOW
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 135W SATURDAY EVENING, RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AND MOVING INSIDE OF 130 W EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON COAST LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS MAY BE TOO FAR
NORTH TO WARRANT STORM FORCE WINDS, BUT GALES ARE LIKELY. FOR NOW
IN ORDER TO AVOID CONFUSION, WE`LL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES UNTIL
THE FIRST GALE WARNING EXPIRES. IF THAT WEREN`T ENOUGH, VERY HIGH
AND VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE IN SUNDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND HIGH SWELL COULD RESULT
IN DANGEROUS SEAS AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL
THIS PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER ENDS. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ027-028.
CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR CAZ082.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ080.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ083.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
15/15/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
930 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN INCREASINGLY SOGGY
SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND LAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD/ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TOP DOWN MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS H5 RIDGE AXIS
DELINEATING DRIER AIR TO THE EAST AND NORTH FROM INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. ONLY
AREAS WHERE I EXPECT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ARE OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
REACH INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OR WEST CENTRAL NMOUNTAINS BY 12Z BUT
EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA TO BE DRY WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LOWER AND THICKEN. MINS WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD AGAIN...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDERS OF
SOMERSET AND BEDFORD COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL
MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND BRING OVERRUNNING RAINS TO CENTRAL
PA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO 90+ PERCENT BASED ON LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY RANGE FROM
0.75-1.00 INCH IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SOUTH- CENTRAL RIDGES TO
0.25-0.50 INCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER.
THE SFC PATTERN SHOWS A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IN PLACE
TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS NORTH OF MAINE. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
EXPANDING NEWD WITH TIME...HAVE LOWERED DAYTIME MAXES ON SUNDAY TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES WITH EXPECTED COOL WEDGE OVER THE ALLEGHENIES.
TEMPS SHOULD GET A LITTLE WARMER ALONG/EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.
MILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS/RAIN AND TEMPS IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN COMBINING ENERGY FROM
A LOW MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA WITH THE STRONG LOW OVER SOUTH
TEXAS WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOISTURE PUMP FOR THE FLOODING RAINS THAT
HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE GULF STATES.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL STILL BE EDGING SW INTO PA...PROVIDING AN
OVERRUNNING BOUNDARY ALONG AN OLD COOL FRONT. AS APPROACHING
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NOTABLE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE SLIDES TO THE EAST COAST...RESULT WILL BE THE LIFTING OF
A WARM FRONT INTO PA WITH AN AREA OF RAIN SLIDING ACROSS ENTIRE
CWA.
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT OFFERS A BRIEF BREAK ON
TUESDAY...A NEW STRENGTHENING WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES IS ADVERTISED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK THAT PROMISES TO
CHANGE THE PATTERN A BIT AND BRING A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ARISE AT THIS TIME AS THE MED RANGE
MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE LOWER
48. GFS BRINGS A STRONGER SYSTEM INTO THE GLAKES WHERE IT PARKS
WED-FRI WHILE THE ECMWF FRAGMENTS THE LOW AND ABSORBS IT INTO THE
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE THIS DOES LOWER
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT IN POPS...IT STILL LOOKS SHOWERY MID/LATE
WEEK. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THOUGH...THERE IS STILL FAIR
AGREEMENT IN AN OVERALL COOL DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING RAIN
AND DETERIORATING CIGS TO CENTRAL PA BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IN THE
NEAR TERM A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRAW DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA...LIKELY SUSTAINING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS THRU TONIGHT. SFC
DWPTS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF VFR CONDS
OVERNIGHT...AFTER SOME EARLY EVENING MVFR CIGS AT KJST.
EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN CIGS AND INCREASE IN RAIN RISK FROM SW
TO NE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR PA/MD BORDER LIFTS NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. LATEST SREF PROBS AND
MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT IFR CIGS AT KJST/KAOO BY SUNDAY AFTN...WITH
MVFR CONDS ELSEWHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
MON...LGT RAIN/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP CENTRAL/WESTERN MTNS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP CENTRAL/WESTERN MTNS.
WED...AM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS KBFD.
THU...CHC OF SHRA/RESTRICTIONS PSBL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
721 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAINLY DRY START TO THE WEEKEND IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL
END ON A SOGGY NOTE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD/ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH NO RAIN TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE NEARBY. CLOSEST ECHOES ARE NOW
SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND
THICKENING OVER WV AND SRN OH AND KY AS WELL. THE EVENING WILL
REMAIN DRY...WITH A CHANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MD/WV PANHANDLE AND BRUSHING THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS
EVENING.
MAIN INCREASE IN POPS TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA WHERE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG Q-STNRY FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL
MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND BRING OVERRUNNING RAINS TO CENTRAL
PA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO 90+ PERCENT BASED ON LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY RANGE FROM
0.75-1.00 INCH IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SOUTH- CENTRAL RIDGES TO
0.25-0.50 INCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER.
THE SFC PATTERN SHOWS A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IN PLACE
TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS NORTH OF MAINE. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
EXPANDING NEWD WITH TIME...HAVE LOWERED DAYTIME MAXES ON SUNDAY TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES WITH EXPECTED COOL WEDGE OVER THE ALLEGHENIES.
TEMPS SHOULD GET A LITTLE WARMER ALONG/EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.
MILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS/RAIN AND TEMPS IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN COMBINING ENERGY FROM
A LOW MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA WITH THE STRONG LOW OVER SOUTH
TEXAS WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOISTURE PUMP FOR THE FLOODING RAINS THAT
HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE GULF STATES.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL STILL BE EDGING SW INTO PA...PROVIDING AN
OVERRUNNING BOUNDARY ALONG AN OLD COOL FRONT. AS APPROACHING
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NOTABLE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE SLIDES TO THE EAST COAST...RESULT WILL BE THE LIFTING OF
A WARM FRONT INTO PA WITH AN AREA OF RAIN SLIDING ACROSS ENTIRE
CWA.
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT OFFERS A BRIEF BREAK ON
TUESDAY...A NEW STRENGTHENING WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES IS ADVERTISED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK THAT PROMISES TO
CHANGE THE PATTERN A BIT AND BRING A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ARISE AT THIS TIME AS THE MED RANGE
MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE LOWER
48. GFS BRINGS A STRONGER SYSTEM INTO THE GLAKES WHERE IT PARKS
WED-FRI WHILE THE ECMWF FRAGMENTS THE LOW AND ABSORBS IT INTO THE
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE THIS DOES LOWER
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT IN POPS...IT STILL LOOKS SHOWERY MID/LATE
WEEK. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THOUGH...THERE IS STILL FAIR
AGREEMENT IN AN OVERALL COOL DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING RAIN
AND DETERIORATING CIGS TO CENTRAL PA BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IN THE
NEAR TERM A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRAW DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA...LIKELY SUSTAINING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS THRU TONIGHT. SFC
DWPTS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF VFR CONDS
OVERNIGHT...AFTER SOME EARLY EVENING MVFR CIGS AT KJST.
EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN CIGS AND INCREASE IN RAIN RISK FROM SW
TO NE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR PA/MD BORDER LIFTS NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. LATEST SREF PROBS AND
MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT IFR CIGS AT KJST/KAOO BY SUNDAY AFTN...WITH
MVFR CONDS ELSEWHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
MON...LGT RAIN/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP CENTRAL/WESTERN MTNS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP CENTRAL/WESTERN MTNS.
WED...AM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS KBFD.
THU...CHC OF SHRA/RESTRICTIONS PSBL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
619 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAINLY DRY START TO THE WEEKEND IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL
END ON A SOGGY NOTE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD/ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH NO RAIN TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE NEARBY. CLOSEST ECHOES ARE NOW
SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND
THICKENING OVER WV AND SRN OH AND KY AS WELL. THE EVENING WILL
REMAIN DRY...WITH A CHANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MD/WV PANHANDLE AND BRUSHING THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS
EVENING.
MAIN INCREASE IN POPS TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA WHERE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG Q-STNRY FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL
MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND BRING OVERRUNNING RAINS TO CENTRAL
PA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO 90+ PERCENT BASED ON LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY RANGE FROM
0.75-1.00 INCH IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SOUTH- CENTRAL RIDGES TO
0.25-0.50 INCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER.
THE SFC PATTERN SHOWS A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IN PLACE
TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS NORTH OF MAINE. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
EXPANDING NEWD WITH TIME...HAVE LOWERED DAYTIME MAXES ON SUNDAY TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES WITH EXPECTED COOL WEDGE OVER THE ALLEGHENIES.
TEMPS SHOULD GET A LITTLE WARMER ALONG/EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.
MILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS/RAIN AND TEMPS IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN COMBINING ENERGY FROM
A LOW MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA WITH THE STRONG LOW OVER SOUTH
TEXAS WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOISTURE PUMP FOR THE FLOODING RAINS THAT
HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE GULF STATES.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL STILL BE EDGING SW INTO PA...PROVIDING AN
OVERRUNNING BOUNDARY ALONG AN OLD COOL FRONT. AS APPROACHING
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NOTABLE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE SLIDES TO THE EAST COAST...RESULT WILL BE THE LIFTING OF
A WARM FRONT INTO PA WITH AN AREA OF RAIN SLIDING ACROSS ENTIRE
CWA.
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT OFFERS A BRIEF BREAK ON
TUESDAY...A NEW STRENGTHENING WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES IS ADVERTISED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK THAT PROMISES TO
CHANGE THE PATTERN A BIT AND BRING A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ARISE AT THIS TIME AS THE MED RANGE
MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE LOWER
48. GFS BRINGS A STRONGER SYSTEM INTO THE GLAKES WHERE IT PARKS
WED-FRI WHILE THE ECMWF FRAGMENTS THE LOW AND ABSORBES IT INTO THE
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE THIS DOES LOWER
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT IN POPS...IT STILL LOOKS SHOWERY MID/LATE
WEEK. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THOUGH...THERE IS STILL FAIR
AGREEMENT IN AN OVERALL COOL DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING RAIN
AND DETERIORATING CIGS TO CENTRAL PA BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IN THE
NEAR TERM A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRAW DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA...LIKELY SUSTAINING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS THRU TONIGHT. SFC
DWPTS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTN ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF VFR CONDS
OVERNIGHT...AFTER SOME EARLY EVENING MVFR CIGS AT KJST.
EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN CIGS AND INCREASE IN RAIN RISK FROM SW
TO NE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR PA/MD BORDER LIFTS NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. LATEST SREF PROBS AND
MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT IFR CIGS AT KJST/KAOO BY SUNDAY AFTN...WITH
MVFR CONDS ELSEWHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
MON...RAIN/MVFR-IFR.
TUE...MVFR-IFR IMPROVING TUE NGT.
WED-THU...CHC OF RAIN/RESTRICTIONS PSBL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAINLY DRY START TO THE WEEKEND IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL
END ON A SOGGY NOTE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD/ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISSUED 115 PM EST | SAT MARCH 12 2016
VIS STLT SHOWS CLOUDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF I-80 WITH THE
THICKEST/LOWEST CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE. THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF CENTRAL PA IS IN FULL SUN AT 18Z. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. MAX
TEMPS /LOW 60S/ WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE
CLOUDS HOLD DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 50S OVER SOUTHERN
TIER.
HIRES MODELS/NCAR ENSEMBLE SHOWS PWATS INCREASING TO 1 INCH ALONG
THE PA/MD BORDER BY 13/00Z. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY AT BEST THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN WEAK ISENT LIFT ALONG
DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THERE IS A
BROAD CONSENSUS ON INCREASING RAIN RISK TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA
WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG Q-STNRY FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED 115 PM EST | SAT MARCH 12 2016
INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL
MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND BRING OVERRUNNING RAINS TO CENTRAL
PA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO 90+ PERCENT BASED ON LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY RANGE FROM
0.75-1.00 INCH IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SOUTH- CENTRAL RIDGES TO
0.25-0.50 INCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER.
THE SFC PATTERN SHOWS A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IN PLACE
TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS NORTH OF MAINE. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
EXPANDING NEWD WITH TIME...HAVE LOWERED DAYTIME MAXES ON SUNDAY TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES WITH EXPECTED COOL WEDGE OVER THE ALLEGHENIES.
TEMPS SHOULD GET A LITTLE WARMER ALONG/EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.
MILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS/RAIN AND TEMPS IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN COMBINING ENERGY FROM
A LOW MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA WITH THE STRONG LOW OVER SOUTH
TEXAS WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOISTURE PUMP FOR THE FLOODING RAINS THAT
HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE GULF STATES.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL STILL BE EDGING SW INTO PA...PROVIDING AN
OVERRUNNING BOUNDARY ALONG AN OLD COOL FRONT. AS APPROACHING
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NOTABLE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE SLIDES TO THE EAST COAST...RESULT WILL BE THE LIFTING OF
A WARM FRONT INTO PA WITH AN AREA OF RAIN SLIDING ACROSS ENTIRE
CWA.
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT OFFERS A BRIEF BREAK ON
TUESDAY...A NEW STRENGTHENING WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES IS ADVERTISED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK THAT PROMISES TO
CHANGE THE PATTERN A BIT AND BRING A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ARISE AT THIS TIME AS THE MED RANGE
MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE LOWER
48. GFS BRINGS A STRONGER SYSTEM INTO THE GLAKES WHERE IT PARKS
WED-FRI WHILE THE ECMWF FRAGMENTS THE LOW AND ABSORBES IT INTO THE
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE THIS DOES LOWER
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT IN POPS...IT STILL LOOKS SHOWERY MID/LATE
WEEK. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THOUGH...THERE IS STILL FAIR
AGREEMENT IN AN OVERALL COOL DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING RAIN
AND DETERIORATING CIGS TO CENTRAL PA BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IN THE
NEAR TERM A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRAW DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA...LIKELY SUSTAINING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS THRU TONIGHT. SFC
DWPTS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTN ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF VFR CONDS
OVERNIGHT...AFTER SOME EARLY EVENING MVFR CIGS AT KJST.
EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN CIGS AND INCREASE IN RAIN RISK FROM SW
TO NE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR PA/MD BORDER LIFTS NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. LATEST SREF PROBS AND
MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT IFR CIGS AT KJST/KAOO BY SUNDAY AFTN...WITH
MVFR CONDS ELSEWHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
MON...RAIN/MVFR-IFR.
TUE...MVFR-IFR IMPROVING TUE NGT.
WED-THU...CHC OF RAIN/RESTRICTIONS PSBL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1251 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER
SATURDAY AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO COVER ALL BUT THE LOWER SUSQ AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE POCONO AND CATSKILLS...DELINEATED BY A
AN EXTREMELY NARROW CFRB IN REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC.
CFROPA ON GOOD TRACK WITH EXPECTED TOMING. HIGH POPS CONTINUE
UNTIL MID- 3AM...WHEN THE DRY AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS. PWATS
STILL LOOK MUCH HIGHER THAN MDL QPF WOULD INDICATE. BUT FORCING IS
VERY WEAK. INFLOW FROM THE SS/W WILL TURN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE W
THIS EVENING. THE INFLOW TO THE SERN COS IS COMING FROM A SOURCE
REGION OF 40 DEWPOINT SFC OBS. ALMOST ALL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE DONE
BY 06Z ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GUID. HRRR AND RAP ARE
HANGING ONTO THINGS A BIT LONGER SO AM LEARY TO TOTALLY CUT SHRA
OFF AT THAT POINT. BUT THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT TIMING...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO LINGER MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON THE FRINGES
OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE
SHORTLY AFTER FROPA OVERNIGHT. BUT OFF-LAKE FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE STEEP/DRASTIC SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAKE
KEEP BKN CLOUDS IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO FRI AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
EXPECT THE REMAINING CLOUDS AT DAYBREAK TO BE EATEN AWAY BY THE
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOWERING INVERSION AND DAYTIME MIXING. 8H
TEMPS MAY BE CLOSE TO 0C IN THE FAR NE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE 5C OR BETTER. MIXING WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW 3500FT THO. THUS
TEMPS WILL PROB MAX OUT IN THE U40S N AND L60S S. THESE ARE STILL
10F BETTER THAN NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD IN THE
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHC FOR
SHOWERS...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED AS WELL...AS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES UP TO OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
DAYS WILL FEATURE A CHC OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES.
A RIDGE OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE 12Z GFS/GEFS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES...CENTERED ON THE
GLAKES. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT DIG THE TROUGH AS
DEEPLY...AND CREATES A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT FRIDAY.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
AIRMASS NOT REAL MOIST SE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND VERY DRY AIR
FCST TO WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THUS LOOKING AT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THIS AFT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM KIDI TO KIPT AT 03Z...WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH KBFD
IS REPORTING VFR CONDS AT 0330Z...UPSTREAM OBS AND NR TERM MDL
DATA POINT TOWARD PREDOMINANTLY IFR CIGS BTWN 04Z-12Z...DUE TO
POST-FRONTAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS. FURTHER
SOUTH...THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN RAIN WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN 03Z-07Z...AS PLUME OF PREFRONTAL
MOISTURE ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...A DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL RESULT IN
MORE FAVORABLE CONDS OVERNIGHT. STILL...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
RAIN/REDUCED CIGS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT OVERNIGHT. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MAINLY MVFR REDUCTIONS...OCCURRING BTWN 03Z-08Z AT
KIPT/KAOO/KUNV AND POSSIBLY BTWN 06Z-10Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LINGERING
IFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST UNTIL LATE AM AND MVFR CIGS AT KUNV/KAOO.
AFTER THAT...MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUPPORT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MIXES OUT
AND SKIES CLEAR.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY NORTH. EVENING -RA/LOW CIGS
POSS KJST/KAOO.
SUN...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP AT NIGHT.
MON...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
* HARRISBURG SMASHED THEIR REC MAX OF 72 YESTERDAY WITH A 79
DEGREE READING AT 534 PM.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
CLIMATE...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER
SATURDAY AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO COVER ALL BUT THE LOWER SUSQ AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE POCONO AND CATSKILLS...DELINEATED BY A
AN EXTREMELY NARROW CFRB IN REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC.
CFROPA ON GOOD TRACK WITH EXPECTED TOMING. HIGH POPS CONTINUE
UNTIL MID- 3AM...WHEN THE DRY AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS. PWATS
STILL LOOK MUCH HIGHER THAN MDL QPF WOULD INDICATE. BUT FORCING IS
VERY WEAK. INFLOW FROM THE SS/W WILL TURN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE W
THIS EVENING. THE INFLOW TO THE SERN COS IS COMING FROM A SOURCE
REGION OF 40 DEWPOINT SFC OBS. ALMOST ALL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE DONE
BY 06Z ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GUID. HRRR AND RAP ARE
HANGING ONTO THINGS A BIT LONGER SO AM LEARY TO TOTALLY CUT SHRA
OFF AT THAT POINT. BUT THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT TIMING...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO LINGER MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON THE FRINGES
OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE
SHORTLY AFTER FROPA OVERNIGHT. BUT OFF-LAKE FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE STEEP/DRASTIC SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAKE
KEEP BKN CLOUDS IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO FRI AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT THE REMAINING CLOUDS AT DAYBREAK TO BE EATEN AWAY BY THE
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOWERING INVERSION AND DAYTIME MIXING. 8H
TEMPS MAY BE CLOSE TO 0C IN THE FAR NE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE 5C OR BETTER. MIXING WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW 3500FT THO. THUS
TEMPS WILL PROB MAX OUT IN THE U40S N AND L60S S. THESE ARE STILL
10F BETTER THAN NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD IN THE
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHC FOR
SHOWERS...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED AS WELL...AS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES UP TO OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
DAYS WILL FEATURE A CHC OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES.
A RIDGE OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE 12Z GFS/GEFS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES...CENTERED ON THE
GLAKES. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT DIG THE TROUGH AS
DEEPLY...AND CREATES A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT FRIDAY.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM KIDI TO KIPT AT 03Z...WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH KBFD
IS REPORTING VFR CONDS AT 0330Z...UPSTREAM OBS AND NR TERM MDL
DATA POINT TOWARD PREDOMINANTLY IFR CIGS BTWN 04Z-12Z...DUE TO
POST-FRONTAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS. FURTHER
SOUTH...THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN RAIN WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN 03Z-07Z...AS PLUME OF PREFRONTAL
MOISTURE ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...A DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL RESULT IN
MORE FAVORABLE CONDS OVERNIGHT. STILL...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
RAIN/REDUCED CIGS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT OVERNIGHT. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MAINLY MVFR REDUCTIONS...OCCURRING BTWN 03Z-08Z AT
KIPT/KAOO/KUNV AND POSSIBLY BTWN 06Z-10Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LINGERING
IFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST UNTIL LATE AM AND MVFR CIGS AT KUNV/KAOO.
AFTER THAT...MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUPPORT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MIXES OUT
AND SKIES CLEAR.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY NORTH. EVENING -RA/LOW CIGS
POSS KJST/KAOO.
SUN...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP AT NIGHT.
MON...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
* HARRISBURG HAS ALREADY SMASHED THEIR REC MAX OF 72 TODAY WITH
AT LEAST A 77 AS OF 2 PM EST.
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MARCH 10TH:
HARRISBURG: 72 IN 2006 --- 77+ IN 2016
WILLIAMSPORT: 71 IN 1977
ALTOONA: 72 IN 1986
BRADFORD: 66 IN 1986
STATE COLLEGE: 72 IN 1986
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN ACROSS FAR SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTN...WHICH IS PROVIDING RICH GULF MOISTURE AND HENCE HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR SOME OF THE GULF STATES. LOOKING CLOSER TO HOME...N-NE
SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY /15-20 MPH/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA COURTESY OF THE SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSED
BY THE UA LOW. FURTHERMORE...THE NWRN EDGE OF THE UA LOW HAS AIDED
IN STREAMING IN HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT IS STRUGGLING TO FILTER
IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS /WHERE LOWERED
CLOUD DECKS WERE NOTED/ AS SEEN VIA 21Z RADAR ANALYSIS. WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS
VERSUS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND WRN ZONES...THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BIT OF A TEMP
GRADIENT THIS AFTN /LOWER TO UPPER 60S ON THE CAPROCK VERSUS LOWER
60S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/.
THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RAINFALL SHIFTING NORTH AND WEST WITH TIME LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...WHICH COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
AND PERHAPS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER THE UL SUPPORT APPEARS
TO LOSE SOME OF ITS LUSTER WHICH EXPLAINS THE WANING SIGNAL OF THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME LIGHT DURING THIS
TIME...THUS BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NAM SHOW FOG DEVELOPING INITIALLY
JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FA AND POSSIBLY SPREAD NW THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
WRN AND NWRN ZONES COULD MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL WITH
PERHAPS A STRATUS DECK BEING THE LIKELY SCENARIO. NONETHELESS...CAN
NOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG MORE SO ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE FALLEN AND THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE CLOUD-FREE WRN ZONES
MAY HAVE A HIGHER FOG-RISK...BUT ANTICIPATED SFC WINDS VEERING TO
THE SW COULD PROVE DIFFICULT FOR THIS TO OCCUR. WHAT MAY BE A
CONCERN IS TEMPS DROPPING TO/BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES
WHICH HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST TWO DAYS.
SATURDAY...THE UA LOW WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE AND SHIFT NE TO
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE MORNING AND NEARING ERN TX BY THE AFTN.
ITS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE FLEETING WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE NERN ZONES DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTN.
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST... SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW WINDS AND
AN UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S
AND 70S. WARMEST AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE TX/NM
BORDER WHICH COULD RAISE CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...
A SHARP AND FAST MOVING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON OUR HEELS
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WHICH
WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
THE 20-25 KT RANGE. IF THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OF THE LOW WERE TO
OCCUR 6-12 HOURS LATER DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WE WOULD PROBABLY BE
LOOKING AT A DECENT...ALBEIT SHORT LIVED...WIND EVENT. THANKFULLY
THAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE CASE. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRYING TO SPAWN
QPF ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS THE LOW PASSES. THE GFS HAS BEEN
THE LONE OPTIMISTIC WITH QPF IN TODAYS RUNS AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
REMAIN DRY. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE IN ALOFT AS THE LOW PASSES
TO OUR EAST UNTIL TUESDAY AS A DEEPER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATOON AMPLIFIES. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP MONDAY BEFORE
THE AMPLIFICATION AND WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AROUND 20-25 KTS.
THIS WILL IN TURN WARM TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S MONDAY. WEST
WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP
COOL TEMPS WHY A WHOPPING 3-5 DEGREES. THOUGH THAT WILL BE JUST A
SMALL CHANGE IN TEMPS IT WILL BE THE FIRST DOMINO TO FALL AND START
A TREND.
THOUGH MODELS HAVE DIFFERED ON TIMING THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
PUSHING A FRONT (AND WIND) INTO THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL COOL TEMPS A GREAT DEAL. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL
GREATLY DICTATE WHAT HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE NEXT THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...HIGHS LOOK TO COOL TO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY LOW 60S BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO FORECAST AS IN ADDITION TO
FROPA TIMING THERE IS THE ISSUE OF PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS
(AMONG OTHER THINGS). MODEL GUIDANCE HAS POST FRONTAL LOWS ANYWHERE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID/UPPER 20S. GIVEN HOW MUCH VEGETATION
IS BEGINNING TO COME TO LIFE WITH TREES AND CROPS BUDDING/FLOWERING
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. WHILE FREEZING TEMPS HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS WOULD BE THE
FIRST FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS SINCE GREEN UP HAS STARTED
TO OCCUR. THE OTHER UNKNOWN IS IF THE FRONT WILL BE WET OR DRY. THE
GFS SAYS IT WILL BE WET...MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE GFS HAS A LONGER PERIOD OF RETURN. FOR NOW POPS HAVE
BEEN TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. ALDRICH
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/51
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DEFINITE DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE...WE/LL
MENTION VCSH FOR THE I-35 SITES FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS THIS
MORNING. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE I-35 SITES IS
EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH SOME EXPECTED
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION
VCTS ALONG I-35 ALONG WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA FROM
11/21Z-12/01Z. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REDUCED.
OUT WEST AT KDRT...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RAIN
THIS MORNING AND WE/LL CARRY PREVAILING -SHRA THROUGH 16Z. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE
AFTERNOON HEATING HELPS INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LINGERING TO THE SOUTH OF ATASCOSA COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF TODAY WITH EPISODES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...HIRES MODELS SUGGEST A
NEW ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES AND ALONG INTERSTATE 35. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AS BOTH NAM AND GFS AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES OF-4 TO -7. MAIN THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS
WOULD BE SMALL HAIL AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO PUSH AWAY FROM
THE AREA WITH SOME LINGER LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO
AN END ACROSS THE EAST WHILE CLEARING TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 60S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. A WARMING TREND
AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS COMING OUT OF THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AVERAGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES OVER THE AREA AND A LONG
WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 75 57 84 57 / 50 10 0 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 54 75 56 84 55 / 50 10 0 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 54 76 56 84 55 / 40 10 0 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 52 72 57 81 55 / 50 20 0 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 52 78 54 85 51 / 20 - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 54 72 57 83 55 / 50 20 0 - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 53 76 52 85 52 / 30 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 74 57 84 55 / 40 10 0 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 57 75 59 83 56 / 40 10 - - 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 55 75 57 84 56 / 40 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 55 77 57 85 55 / 40 10 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TREADWAY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DEFINITE DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE...WE/LL
MENTION VCSH FOR THE I-35 SITES FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS THIS
MORNING. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE I-35 SITES IS
EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH SOME EXPECTED
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION
VCTS ALONG I-35 ALONG WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA FROM
11/21Z-12/01Z. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REDUCED.
OUT WEST AT KDRT...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RAIN
THIS MORNING AND WE/LL CARRY PREVAILING -SHRA THROUGH 16Z. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE
AFTERNOON HEATING HELPS INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LINGERING TO THE SOUTH OF ATASCOSA COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF TODAY WITH EPISODES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...HIRES MODELS SUGGEST A
NEW ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES AND ALONG INTERSTATE 35. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AS BOTH NAM AND GFS AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES OF-4 TO -7. MAIN THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS
WOULD BE SMALL HAIL AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO PUSH AWAY FROM
THE AREA WITH SOME LINGER LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO
AN END ACROSS THE EAST WHILE CLEARING TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 60S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. A WARMING TREND
AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS COMING OUT OF THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AVERAGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES OVER THE AREA AND A LONG
WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 55 75 57 84 / 60 50 10 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 54 75 56 84 / 60 50 10 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 54 76 56 84 / 70 40 10 0 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 52 72 57 81 / 80 50 20 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 52 78 54 85 / 70 20 - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 54 72 57 83 / 70 50 20 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 53 76 52 85 / 60 30 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 54 74 57 84 / 60 40 10 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 57 75 59 83 / 50 40 10 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 55 75 57 84 / 70 40 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 55 77 57 85 / 70 40 10 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
351 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LINGERING TO THE SOUTH OF ATASCOSA COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF TODAY WITH EPISODES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...HIRES MODELS SUGGEST A
NEW ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES AND ALONG INTERSTATE 35. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AS BOTH NAM AND GFS AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES OF-4 TO -7. MAIN THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS
WOULD BE SMALL HAIL AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO PUSH AWAY FROM
THE AREA WITH SOME LINGER LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO
AN END ACROSS THE EAST WHILE CLEARING TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 60S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. A WARMING TREND
AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS COMING OUT OF THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AVERAGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES OVER THE AREA AND A LONG
WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 55 75 57 84 / 60 50 10 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 54 75 56 84 / 60 50 10 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 54 76 56 84 / 70 40 10 0 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 52 72 57 81 / 80 50 20 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 52 78 54 85 / 70 20 - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 54 72 57 83 / 70 50 20 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 53 76 52 85 / 60 30 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 54 74 57 84 / 60 40 10 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 57 75 59 83 / 50 40 10 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 55 75 57 84 / 70 40 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 55 77 57 85 / 70 40 10 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
844 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM EST SATURDAY...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH MORE OF A WEAK WEDGE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE NEAR THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH AND LESS OVER THE WEST.
EVENING SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A SWATH OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE WHICH ALONG WITH LACK OF MUCH FORCING HAS KEPT
SHOWERS WEST OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER WITH THE
CHANNEL OF HIGHER PWATS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS STARTING TO EDGE
EAST...AND MESO ANALYSIS INDICATING AN AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E JUST
TO OUR WEST...WOULD EXPECT SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS FAR
WEST LATE. THIS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT WHICH STILL
HOLDS OFF MOST DEEP MOISTURE UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK GIVEN THE
LINGERING WEDGE AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM BACK POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE
EAST AND MAINLY ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE COVERAGE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN BUT OVERALL PC
EAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY MOUNTAINS. RAISED LOW TEMPS A CATEGORY IN
SPOTS WEST WHERE OUTSIDE THE WEDGE AND ALONG THE RIDGES GIVEN
MIXING. SHOULD COOL CLOSER TO GUIDANCE EAST PER LINGERING WEAK
EASTERLY TRAJECTORY AND LESS CLOUDS SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY...
IN SITU WEDGE ERODING FAIRLY QUICKLY DESPITE US STILL BEING NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND LACK OF RAINFALL IS
ALLOW FOR THIS EROSION WITH SUNSHINE BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S. EXCEPTIONS ARE SMALLER AREAS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE
FROM BOONE TO FANCY GAP AND ACROSS A FEW OF THE ALLEGHANYS WHERE LOW
CLOUDS REMAIN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AGAIN RADAR REMAINS FREE OF RETURNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VIS SAT
DEPICTING CU FIELDS ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER FROM MARTINSVILLE TO
DANVILLE...AND ANOTHER AREA OVER THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE FAVORING DEVELOPMENT MORE OVER THE FAR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED AT BEST IN THE SRN CWA. EXPECT TO SEE
SUNSHINE REACH AS FAR NORTH AS BLUEFIELD TO DANVILLE...WITH EVEN
SOME PEAKS TOWARD ROANOKE/LYNCHBURG.
HOWEVER...AS WE GET INTO THIS EVENING THE SFC HIGH WILL BE TO OUR
EAST OFF THE NC COAST. MODELS STILL FAVORING A REFORMATION OF WEAK
IN SITU WEDGE WITH LOWER CLOUDS STRATIFYING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE
AND EAST. BEST LIFT WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STAYS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...BUT WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS START TO SLIDE EAST
AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. BY DAWN SUNDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS THE FOOTHILLS.
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL VORTS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
AND SEND BETTER LIFT EASTWARD TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW SOME MILD INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 460. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
THIS INSTABILITY...AND WE WILL NOT SEE ANY SVR THREATS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BY AFTERNOON MOST PLACES WILL SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND HAVE
LIKELY POPS.
WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT WENT MILD...CLOSER TO MAV/ECE MOS OR WARMER...AS
MOS HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL LATELY.
FOR SUNDAY WILL SEE GOOD WAA AS THE WEDGE BREAKS QUICKLY. QUESTION
IS HOW QUICK THE SHOWERS MOVE IN AND AREAL COVERAGE. SHOULD BE MILD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEST...TO LOWER 70S EAST. IF
SUNSHINE DECIDES TO BREAK OUT FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR...COULD SEE
TEMPS JUMP ANOTHER CATEGORY TO LOWER 70S WEST TO MID TO UPPER 70S
EAST.
ALSO...DO NOT FORGET TO MOVE YOUR CLOCKS AHEAD ONE HOUR BEFORE GOING
TO BED TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
IS PROGGED TO TRACK EAST...PASSING OVERHEAD MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND LI OF M4 TO M7. AN
INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FCST TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SRN OR CENTRAL VA ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OCCURS THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINATION OF
COOLING/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE RESULTING IN
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING BOTH BOUYANCY AND
SHEAR. THIS SET- UP FAVORS RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESP
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE PLUME OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 AND TEMPERATURES IN THE U70S ARE FORECAST. PRIMARY RISK
WILL BE FROM SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR
PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ROTATE WITH 0-3KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FORECAST BETWEEN 150 TO 200.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY ALBEIT DRY. WENT ABOVE MAV MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP US MILD AT NIGHT AND
COMBINATION OF HIGH SUN ANGLE WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE WARMER READINGS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS FOR
MID WEEK WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A DEEP VORTEX NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THURSDAY....WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAKING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
THURSDAY MAY CAUSE FLOW TO AMPLIFY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SFC LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. STILL TO EARLY TO TELL WHERE THIS
FEATURE MAY TRACK...BUT IT DOES SUGGEST NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE CLOUDY
AND WET FOR THE MID ATLANTIC.
ABOVE SEASONAL WARMTH WILL PEAK MID WEEK PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN BRING MUCH COOLER
WEATHER TO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 545 PM EST SATURDAY...
DEEPER MOISTURE AGAIN REMAINS LIMITED NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WITHIN THE RESIDUAL WEDGE THAT LINGERS TO
SOME DEGREE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MODELS REMAIN TOO MOIST IN
SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SHOWERS FROM NOW INTO THIS EVENING SO TRENDING MORE
VFR AGAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
GUIDANCE AGAIN WANTING TO FLOP THE WEDGE BACK ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST EDGES CLOSER
LATE. THIS LOOKS ON TRACK BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A BAND
OF SHOWERS NEARING THE KBLF VICINITY AS WELL BY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. THUS FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE LATEST LAV GUIDANCE IN
DELAYING THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS UNTIL LATE EVENING OR MORE SO
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALL SITES...WITH POSSIBLE IFR AROUND KBLF AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS A SIMILAR SCENARIO REGARDING FOG
WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY DUE MORE TO A LOWERING OF THE
STRATUS DECK ALONG THE RIDGES VS RADIATIVE NATURE GIVEN CLOUD
COVER EXCLUDING PERHAPS KDAN/KLYH LATE WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR TO
IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT BY TO THE WEST
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER
WIDESPREAD WITHIN THE MOISTURE CANOPY...INTENSITY LIKELY CONFINED
TO BANDS OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SOME ELEVATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST LATER SUNDAY. FOR NOW GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND A RATHER SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE OUT
ANY TSRA MENTION WHILE INCLUDING SOME DEGREE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS
FOR MOST SITES AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION. AFTER INTERVALS
OF VFR MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/RAINFALL. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE FAVORABLE
FOR HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
TUESDAY WILL FIND US BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF MVFR
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR POST FRONTAL THURSDAY EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR
POSSIBLE KLWB/KBLF.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
425 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASED MOISTURE AND A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES AND DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHEAST WIND PREVAILS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M/U60S AND
L70S. SYNOPTICALLY...CLOSED H5 LOPRES OVER MID-MS VLY CONTINUES
TO BROADEN AND WILL OPEN AND LIFT INTO NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH
TONIGHT. ITS ATTENDANT SFC FEATURES ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE
DIFFUSE...AND CDFNT...FOR LACK OF BETTER WORD...HARD TO PINPOINT
OVER GA/AL. THIS LLVL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. IT WILL PROVIDE A FORCE FOR
MOISTURE TO POOL AS ITS SPREAD NORTHWARD UP THE PENINSULA.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH EASTERLY FLOW MUCH WEAKER TODAY...SEA-BREEZES
WILL BUILD INLAND LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
L80S. DOES APPEAR THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY /SFC
DEWPOINT VALUES NEAR 70F/ FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
AROUND MIDDAY...WITH M/ULVL WINDS SPREADING THE ACTIVITY TWD NE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE INLAND AREAS NORTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY...PARTICULARLY INTERIOR PALM BEACH COUNTY...WHERE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT NEAR MAX
HEATING/CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE
EVENING...MAKING FOR QUIET NIGHT.
SW FLOW WILL BE STRONGER MONDAY...AND AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NEARLY
OUT OF THE PICTURE. OTHERWISE...SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE SO
THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER NERN SECTIONS AS ATLC
BREEZE DEVELOPS. AGAIN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER EASTERN HALF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. WIND LESS TIME OF ONSHORE
FLOW ACRS EAST COAST...MAXIMA MAY RISE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN THOSE OF THIS WEEKEND. CONVERSES...NAPLES AREA AND GULF COAST
MAXIMA WILL BE MODERATED BY RELATIVELY COOL GULF BREEZE IN
AFTERNOON.
DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL PRECLUDE DRIER CONDITIONS FILTERING IN LATER
MONDAY EVENING...WITH NO RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
BOOSTED A BIT HIGHER STILL TUESDAY AS SW FLOW PERSISTS AND CLOUDS
BECOME LESS.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUIET AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. SFC RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY...THEN PUSHES EAST THURSDAY...ALLOWING ANTECEDENT SSW
FLOW TO BECOME SELY. THIS IN TURN WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO
APPROACH THE REGION AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...BRINGING AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. KAPF WILL HAVE A MORE SW DIRECTION AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BUT THAT WILL LIKELY ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH STARTING AT 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS
BUT WILL NEED TO UPDATE FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE HRRR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AROUND 17Z IN THE
SOUTH FLORIDA INTERIOR. THERE COULD EVEN BE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER ALL OF TAF SITES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME THE
COVERAGE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO PUT IT IN THE TAF SITES.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN RIGHT NEAR MVFR/VFR HEIGHTS
WITH A FEW SITES SHOWING 2500 FOOT DECKS. CONDITIONS COULD FALL
DOWN INTO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SUNDAY OVER KAPF TAF
SITE DUE TO FOG FORMATION. EXPECTED RAINFALL DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
TOO INTENSE...SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH VIS LOWERING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL.
&&
.MARINE...
SE WIND 15 KT OR SO WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN TURN SW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THEN...LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND ATLC
WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTN AND AGAIN MON AFTN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 69 84 68 / 40 20 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 71 84 70 / 30 10 20 0
MIAMI 83 72 84 69 / 30 10 10 0
NAPLES 82 68 82 67 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...99/ME
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
352 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...A CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
TODAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE WAS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
KEEP MOVING AWAY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR A SHARP INCREASE IN THE AREA`S PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM THE 0.94 INCHES PER THE 13/00Z CAPE CANAVERAL SOUNDING TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES PER THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING. THIS SHARP
INCREASE WAS SHOWN BY AN ALMOST VERTICAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER BETWEEN 13/12Z AND 13/18Z WOULD SUPPORT LIKELY(60-70 POP)
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS MOS. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW FAVORABLE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FEATURES...
VORTICITY ADVECTION/OMEGA VALUES/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND 500MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C...SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON STORMS. THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD BACK
DAYTIME/LOWER LAYERS HEATING A COUPLE OF DEGREES LIMITING
INSTABILITY SO THE SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD CALL
FOR NOW. THE LOCAL HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING A SOUTH SOUTHEAST/
ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT FROM AROUND VERO BEACH SOUTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THIS "SEA
BREEZE" COMPONENT DOES DEVELOP AS IT MAY HAVE SOME CONTRIBUTION TO
THE STORMS ALONG THE COAST VERO BEACH SOUTH. THE SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW
WILL HELP PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN TO THE MID 80S.
TONIGHT...THE "MOISTURE BUMP" FROM THE AFTERNOON LINGERS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE MOISTURE STARTS TO DECREASE. AT THE SAME TIME
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT FEATURES ARE MOVING AWAY
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA. SHOWER POTENTIAL FALLS WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MOST/ALL OF THE NIGHT KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR ANOTHER NIGHT.
MONDAY...MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM TN TWD THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE DAY WITH DEEP LAYER SW/WSW ACROSS CENTRAL
FL. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA WITH WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING TO LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS NRN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS SRN SECTIONS IN THE
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP A 30 PCT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND JUST A 20 PCT RAIN CHANCE FOR NRN AREAS. LOW
LVL SW/WSW FLOW TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 925 MBS SHOULD HOLD OFF THE
SEA BREEZE...EXCEPT FOR FAR SRN COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 80S.
TUE-THU...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST
OFF THE MID ATLC COAST ON TUE WITH THE SFC RIDGE ACROSS FAR SRN FL
TUE/WED AND THEN SHIFTING OFFSHORE THU. A FLAT RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS
THE GULF WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS THU...SETTING UP A
WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR MID WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE MID 80S FOR THE INTERIOR AND LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
FRI-SUN...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR THE FL-GA
BORDER FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
NRN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. A DEEPENING LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE N CENTRAL STATES SATURDAY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AS THE SUB TROPICAL JET STRENGTHENS FROM THE YUCATAN TO
THE FL KEYS OVER THE WEEKEND. DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND FORCED ASCENT BETWEEN THE NRN STREAM JET NEAR THE MID ATLC AND
UPPER JET ACROSS THE GULF WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SCATTERED
RANGE FOR NOW...30-40 PCT SATURDAY INCREASING TO NEAR 50 PCT
AREAWIDE SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION FOR SAT AFTN
AND SUNDAY WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT
EXPECTED. CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGS COOLER THAN MID WEEK BUT STILL INTO THE LOWER 80S MUCH OF THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONSIDERABLY HIGH CLOUDINESS AND FEW-
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 13/15Z IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 13/15ZS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. VCSH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ARE OVERHEAD.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY..SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS THE WESTERN EDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM FLORIDA. SEAS 3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
4 FT GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING
THEN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20 MPH.
TONIGHT...SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. SEAS
2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 FEET OFFSHORE.
SW WINDS TO 15-18 KNOTS OFFSHORE MONDAY WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 3-4 FT
WELL OFFSHORE. SW WINDS SHOULD DROP A BIT TO 10-15 KNOTS TUE AND TO
10 KNOTS OR LESS WED WITH SEAS DECREASING TO 2-3 FT. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS THU BUT SEAS WILL STILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET ON
MONDAY AND THEN DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 66 85 62 / 70 20 20 0
MCO 85 69 87 64 / 70 20 20 10
MLB 84 69 85 61 / 70 30 30 10
VRB 85 67 85 61 / 70 30 30 10
LEE 83 68 86 63 / 70 20 20 10
SFB 84 68 86 63 / 70 20 20 10
ORL 84 68 87 64 / 70 20 20 10
FPR 84 69 85 60 / 70 30 30 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1236 AM EST SUN MAR 13 2016
.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. KAPF WILL HAVE A MORE SW DIRECTION AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BUT THAT WILL LIKELY ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH STARTING AT 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS
BUT WILL NEED TO UPDATE FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE HRRR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AROUND 17Z IN THE
SOUTH FLORIDA INTERIOR. THERE COULD EVEN BE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER ALL OF TAF SITES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME THE
COVERAGE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO PUT IT IN THE TAF SITES.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN RIGHT NEAR MVFR/VFR HEIGHTS
WITH A FEW SITES SHOWING 2500 FOOT DECKS. CONDITIONS COULD FALL
DOWN INTO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SUNDAY OVER KAPF TAF
SITE DUE TO FOG FORMATION. EXPECTED RAINFALL DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
TOO INTENSE...SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH VIS LOWERING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016/
..HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS. NAPLES OBSERVED SOME MORNING
FOG EARLIER TODAY AND CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE
MOISTURE AND A DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS AFTER SUNSET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AGAIN. UPDATED ZONES AND FWF WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE
COMING DAY OR SO. THE PARENT MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING
OVER TEXAS AT THE MOMENT WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH, ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE RETURN
OVER FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT, COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS ON
STARTING TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH LATE
MONDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON SUNDAY, THE FRONTAL INFLUENCE ON THE REGION
COMBINES WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING, WITH
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 80S, TO CREATE AT
LEAST A MENTIONABLE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ON
MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INTO THE SR 80 CORRIDOR
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD ALLOW ANY CONVECTION AN OPPORTUNITY TO DEVELOP INTO A
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. OVERALL, MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SHOWERS.
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY EXIT THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DRIER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AND PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY COULD POTENTIALLY STALL OVER FLORIDA
ENTERING NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON LOCATIONS OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS A WETTER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE BOUNDARY OVER THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR IN NORTH
FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
SOLUTIONS ARE THE TIMING AND EXTENT THAT AN EAST COAST TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN WARM WITH SPRING
GRADUALLY FORESHADOWING THE APPROACH OF SUMMER. WHILE THE RAINY
SEASON IS STILL NOT ON THE IMMEDIATE HORIZON, THE NEXT WEEK
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST THAN THE PREVIOUS
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BE CONFIDENT THAT
MOST LAWNS WILL SEE RAIN THIS WEEK, BUT AT LEAST EVERYONE WILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR TWO THIS WEEK. 02/RAG
MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GULF STREAM CONTINUES TO CREATE SCEC
CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHTER OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WATERS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY PASSES, SOME GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS COULD AGAIN RETURN TO THE WATERS. 02/RAG
FIRE WEATHER...
THOSE WITH FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE WEEK CONTINUES. THE
LACK OF RECENT WETTING RAINS HAS ALLOWED ERC VALUES TO RISE TO
AROUND 30 IN MOST COUNTIES. AFTER THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITS,
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF CRITICAL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOONS MID-WEEK. 02/RAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 68 85 67 / 40 20 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 71 85 69 / 40 20 20 0
MIAMI 84 71 85 70 / 40 20 20 0
NAPLES 82 68 81 67 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
130 AM CST SUN MAR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...
231 PM CST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST IS ON PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AS RAIN EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE CWA OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. FARTHER
SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOUISIANACOAST...AND
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO REGION OF WEAK
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE/OLD CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER TEXAS WHICH IS BEING KICKED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY ANOTHER
STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS IL/IN SUNDAY...WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL RAMPING UP ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS WAVE APPROACHES AND INCREASES
MOIST ASCENT ACROSS LOW LEVEL WARM FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI/TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS. IN FACT A WEAKER LEAD SHORT WAVE WAS ALREADY PRODUCING
SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO/EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON IN A REGION OF ELEVATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 300-305 K THETA
SURFACES. AMDAR AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVELS BELOW
500-600 MB ARE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN AND SATURATE MORE FULLY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL INTO THIS EVENING. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH-NORTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES.
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE CWA GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS THE GREATEST
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
EVENING WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE.
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AGAIN GIVEN ALIGNMENT OF FORCING FEATURES
AND PWATS OF 1+ INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90 PERCENTILE BASED
ON ILX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID-MARCH. DEEP MOIST-ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES ALSO APPEAR TO YIELD SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TIER OR SO OF CWA COUNTIES
FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPS REACHED THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHGAN THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE CLIMB SOMEWHAT. CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL DEW POINT TEMPS SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 40S MOST AREAS AND AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH...AND
DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...PURE ADVECTION
OF WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMP AGAIN IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S SOUTH. INCREASING EAST WINDS (10-20 MPH) WILL COMBINE
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO KEEP THINGS COOLER NORTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WAVE AND BAROCLINIC REGION...WITH TEMPS FROM THE MID
40S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE LOWER 50S FARTHER INLAND IN LINE
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
303 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WITH RETURNING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIME.
A WET START TO THE PERIOD IS STILL APPEARING LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT.
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSING THIS FLOW
ALONG WITH SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE REFLECTION LOOK TO STILL PROVIDE
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. DID MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR
THE AREA IN THE EVENING BUT SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEPART TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IN THE EVENING
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT LOCATION WILL STILL LIKELY BE
IN AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR. SO HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY FOR THE INDIANA COUNTIES
SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER. ANY THUNDER CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND WEAKENING
FORCING. CONTINUE THE LOWERING TREND WITH POPS ON MONDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM FURTHER DEPARTS. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND FORCING ALONG DEPARTING BOUNDARY. DO LEAVE SOME CHANCE
POPS IN THE MORNING BUT GO MAINLY DRY IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A PORTION OF THE
EVENING ON MONDAY...DO BRING BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THEN CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. APPROACHING
SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW BACKING LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE DURING THIS NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...WAA
LOOKS TO RAMP UP WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS WAA AXIS. GUIDANCE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD...AND SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER GIVEN THIS SIGNAL AND PATTERN.
MORNING GUIDANCE COMING IN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ONE ANOTHER ON
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WHILE UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OF AT LEAST 120KT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. MID
LEVEL FLOW/ENERGY IS ALSO APPEARING RATHER ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL
FLOW OF AROUND 100KT BECOMING POSSIBLE...AND WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A STOUT VORT MAX TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GROWING MORE CONCERNED FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY AS A WARM/MOIST ENVIRONMENT ADVECTS NORTH OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO MOISTURE RETURN...MODEL CONSENSUS IS
STILL INDICATING MODEST MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
WITH SOME PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATING A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. IN THIS SCENARIO...INSTABILITY
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY INCREASING.
HOWEVER...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS SOLUTION QUITE YET AND HAVE
GONE WITH MORE OF A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH. EVEN IN THIS
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...THIS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN COULD STILL
YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY IN UPWARDS OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THIS
HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND EXPECTED STRONG KINEMATIC FIELD...EVEN
THIS POSSIBLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF THESE FEATURES COULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO GATHER ANY STRONG CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY
HOW TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD. HOWEVER...THIS PERIOD WARRANTS CLOSE
MONITORING FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
WDLY SCATTERED -SHRA STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH MORE OF AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING...LIKELY BUILDING INTO MORE OF A STEADY RAIN BY MID-LATE
MORNING SUNDAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO MORE OF A LIGHT
RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT...LIKELY TO
MVFR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING TO IFR SUNDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED RAIN/MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH
WINDS OFF THE STILL COLD LAKE SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW AND SHARP
INVERSION WITH CIGS LIKELY BUILDING DOWN TO LIFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC CLIMO BOTH SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR
CIGS/VSBY SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG CONTINUING.
GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR CIGS/VSBY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHICH DOES BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO THE DECK.
GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC AT MDW...SO KEPT THEM A BIT
HIGHER FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. AT ORD...THE TOWER ENDS UP IN THE CIGS AT 200FT WHICH
TYPICALLY LEADS TO TOWER VSBY OF 1/2SM TO 1/4SM SO FELT MORE
COMFORTABLE BRINGING ORD TO NEAR THE DECK SUNDAY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN LOW CIGS/VSBY IS MEDIUM-HIGH SUNDAY EVENING THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN PRECISELY HOW LOW IT GETS.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
125 AM CST
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE LAKE AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE STEADILY INCREASING AND IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS SHOWERS EASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FOG WILL PROBABLY BE DENSE IN
PARTS BY TONIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THIS INCLUDES THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORES.
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE FOR MIDWEEK IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE TREND WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THIS LOW HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD THE PAST 12-24 HOURS IN
FORECAST MODELS...WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE
OVER THE LAKE DURING THAT TIME. WITH SUCH A DEEP LOW THE PATTERN
STILL BEARS WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL GALES AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED FOR A PERIOD OR TWO DURING
MIDWEEK.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1123 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...
231 PM CST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST IS ON PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AS RAIN EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE CWA OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. FARTHER
SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST...AND IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO
REGION OF WEAK PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE/OLD CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WHICH IS BEING KICKED OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST BY ANOTHER STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS IL/IN SUNDAY...WITH PRECIP
POTENTIAL RAMPING UP ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND INCREASES MOIST ASCENT ACROSS LOW LEVEL WARM
FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. IN FACT A WEAKER LEAD SHORT WAVE
WAS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MO/EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON IN A
REGION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
300-305 K THETA SURFACES. AMDAR AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS DEPICT
LOW LEVELS BELOW 500-600 MB ARE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
IL...AND WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN AND SATURATE MORE
FULLY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL INTO THIS EVENING. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH-NORTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES.
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE CWA GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS THE GREATEST
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
EVENING WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE.
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AGAIN GIVEN ALIGNMENT OF FORCING FEATURES
AND PWATS OF 1+ INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90 PERCENTILE BASED
ON ILX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID-MARCH. DEEP MOIST-ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES ALSO APPEAR TO YIELD SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TIER OR SO OF CWA COUNTIES
FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPS REACHED THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHGAN THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE CLIMB SOMEWHAT. CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL DEW POINT TEMPS SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 40S MOST AREAS AND AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH...AND
DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...PURE ADVECTION
OF WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMP AGAIN IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S SOUTH. INCREASING EAST WINDS (10-20 MPH) WILL COMBINE
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO KEEP THINGS COOLER NORTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WAVE AND BAROCLINIC REGION...WITH TEMPS FROM THE MID
40S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE LOWER 50S FARTHER INLAND IN LINE
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
303 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WITH RETURNING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIME.
A WET START TO THE PERIOD IS STILL APPEARING LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT.
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSING THIS FLOW
ALONG WITH SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE REFLECTION LOOK TO STILL PROVIDE
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. DID MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR
THE AREA IN THE EVENING BUT SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEPART TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IN THE EVENING
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT LOCATION WILL STILL LIKELY BE
IN AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR. SO HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY FOR THE INDIANA COUNTIES
SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER. ANY THUNDER CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND WEAKENING
FORCING. CONTINUE THE LOWERING TREND WITH POPS ON MONDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM FURTHER DEPARTS. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND FORCING ALONG DEPARTING BOUNDARY. DO LEAVE SOME CHANCE
POPS IN THE MORNING BUT GO MAINLY DRY IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A PORTION OF THE
EVENING ON MONDAY...DO BRING BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THEN CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. APPROACHING
SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW BACKING LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE DURING THIS NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...WAA
LOOKS TO RAMP UP WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS WAA AXIS. GUIDANCE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD...AND SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER GIVEN THIS SIGNAL AND PATTERN.
MORNING GUIDANCE COMING IN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ONE ANOTHER ON
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WHILE UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OF AT LEAST 120KT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. MID
LEVEL FLOW/ENERGY IS ALSO APPEARING RATHER ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL
FLOW OF AROUND 100KT BECOMING POSSIBLE...AND WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A STOUT VORT MAX TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GROWING MORE CONCERNED FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY AS A WARM/MOIST ENVIRONMENT ADVECTS NORTH OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO MOISTURE RETURN...MODEL CONSENSUS IS
STILL INDICATING MODEST MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
WITH SOME PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATING A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. IN THIS SCENARIO...INSTABILITY
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY INCREASING.
HOWEVER...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS SOLUTION QUITE YET AND HAVE
GONE WITH MORE OF A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH. EVEN IN THIS
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...THIS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN COULD STILL
YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY IN UPWARDS OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THIS
HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND EXPECTED STRONG KINEMATIC FIELD...EVEN
THIS POSSIBLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF THESE FEATURES COULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO GATHER ANY STRONG CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY
HOW TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD. HOWEVER...THIS PERIOD WARRANTS CLOSE
MONITORING FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
WDLY SCATTERED -SHRA STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH MORE OF AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING...LIKELY BUILDING INTO MORE OF A STEADY RAIN BY MID-LATE
MORNING SUNDAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO MORE OF A LIGHT
RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT...LIKELY TO
MVFR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING TO IFR SUNDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED RAIN/MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH
WINDS OFF THE STILL COLD LAKE SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW AND SHARP
INVERSION WITH CIGS LIKELY BUILDING DOWN TO LIFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC CLIMO BOTH SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR
CIGS/VSBY SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG CONTINUING.
GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR CIGS/VSBY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHICH DOES BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO THE DECK.
GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC AT MDW...SO KEPT THEM A BIT
HIGHER FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. AT ORD...THE TOWER ENDS UP IN THE CIGS AT 200FT WHICH
TYPICALLY LEADS TO TOWER VSBY OF 1/2SM TO 1/4SM SO FELT MORE
COMFORTABLE BRINGING ORD TO NEAR THE DECK SUNDAY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN LOW CIGS/VSBY IS MEDIUM-HIGH SUNDAY EVENING THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN PRECISELY HOW LOW IT GETS.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
252 PM CST
FEW CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE CENTRAL/LOWER GREAT LAKES.
MODEST EAST WINDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WAS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...AND EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE A BIT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE LAKE AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO IL/IN BY EVENING. IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME THAT THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL THEN SLACKEN AGAIN INTO MONDAY
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEAK LOW.
A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL BEING WATCHED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH FORECAST MODELS STILL DEVELOPING A DEEP
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES OR UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY AND MOVING THE LOW ACROSS THE LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WOULD STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS/GALES BY WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS STILL AMPLE SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER... MAKING CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE WIND FIELD
FAIRLY LOW.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
334 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
...Updated Short Term, Long Term and Fire Weather Sections...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
A deep, compact upper level cyclone was moving into the western
Texas Panhandle early this morning and should move across Oklahoma
into western Arkansas by evening. Temperatures are quite cold in
the center of the upper level cyclone with -25 C at H5 on the ABQ
sounding at 00Z. A cluster of thunderstorms east and north of the
upper level cold pool had propagated into the Oklahoma Panhandle
and western Oklahoma by 07Z, but convective elements were tending
to weaken as they moved away from the cold pool into more stable
air in Kansas. The northern part of the convective cluster
probably will skirt the southern border of Kansas, but the better
chance for significant precipitation will be farther south.
A weak upper level vorticity maximum developed in northwest
Kansas Saturday evening, and satellite imagery and radar suggested
the presence of a weak closed cyclone west of HLC at 07Z. This
upper level cyclone likely will move east during the day and
support an area of showers and thunderstorms across northern
Kansas. POPs in the grids will be modified to indicate higher
chances for measurable rain north and south of Dodge City with a
minimum along the Arkansas River Valley.
Weak upslope flow and nearly saturated air in the lower few
thousand feet of the atmosphere will support extensive stratus
tonight and Sunday morning. The HRR and RAP develop patchy dense
fog early this morning, but hydrolapses on model soundings are
more supportive of low clouds than dense fog. Some restriction in
visibilities can be expected toward sunrise, but it appears likely
that visibilities will remain above dense fog criteria.
A surface trough will propagate across western Kansas with the
upper level trough, and low level winds will become northwest
across all of western Kansas by mid afternoon. Drier air and
downslope flow will result in clearing skies and warm temperatures
this afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler in central Kansas
where cloudiness will be slower to clear out. Light winds and
mostly clear skies tonight will support good radiational cooling,
but the atmosphere is so warm that lows still will be well above
seasonal averages.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
An anomalously strong East Asian jet extending across the Pacific
is impinging on the northwestern United States, and a large area
of exceedingly cold air aloft is moving into the Pacific Northwest
early today. Pressures will fall in the lee of the Rockies Monday,
and a plume of very warm air will cover western Kansas with H8
temperatures above 20C from Dodge City west to Colorado. Highs
should rise into the 80s at most locations. As the Pacific
Northwest trough digs into the northern Plains Tuesday, a cold
front will move across Kansas Monday night. Strong northwest low
level winds and tanking dewpoints will result in very active fire
behavior Tuesday. Temperatures Tuesday will be about 15 degrees
lower than on Monday but still above seasonal averages. Strong
radiational cooling with very dry air will allow temperatures to
fall below freezing for the first time in several days Tuesday
night. Wednesday should be fairly quiet with an upper level
cyclone centered in the Great Lakes and nearly zonal flow aloft in
the Central Plains. Highs should be in the upper 50s and lower
60s.
Strong cyclogenesis off the coast of Asia Monday will start to
buckle the East Asian jet, and downstream cyclogenesis near 160W
on Wednesday will result in development of a sharp ridge in the
eastern Pacific. A deep upper level trough will dig into the
northern Rockies Thursday and move across the Central Plains
Friday and Saturday. Surface anticylogenesis in western Canada
downstream from the sharp upper level ridge in western Canada will
result in evolution of a cold air mass that will plunge into the
central part of the country Thursday night and Friday. Synoptic
scale details differ between the ECMWF and GFS, but the
operational runs of both models suggest that measurable snowfall
may occur in Kansas Friday and/or Saturday. Ensembles from the GFS
and GEM show quite a bit of spread, so details of the event are
uncertain. Regardless of the synoptic scale details, it is almost
certain that temperatures will be cold enough to damage any early
plant growth that has occurred in the extended period of anomalous
warmth in February and early March. Lows in the teens are very
possible if the sky clears over a snow pack. The cold period will
be short lived; zonal flow and much warmer temperatures will
return by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
A compact upper level cyclone centered along the Texas/New Mexico
border at 06Z will move across Oklahoma and reach western Arkansas
Sunday evening. Another subtle upper level trough extending from
northwest Kansas into northeast Oklahoma will move slowly into
eastern Kansas by evening. Scattered showers and areas of light
rain can be expected tonight across western Kansas with a few
lightning strikes near the upper level cold pool in southwest and
south central Kansas. A deep, moist air mass will persist, and
widespread stratus with ceilings from 010 to 020 lowering to
blo010 by 09Z can be expected. Visibilities will lower to 1-3 SM
in fog after 09Z. Showers will end from west to east Sunday
morning as the upper level cyclone continues to move east. A
surface trough will move across western Kansas today, and low
level winds will become west to northwest around 10 kts by early
afternoon. Stratus and fog will erode during the morning, and VFR
conditions can be expected by 18Z - 20Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
Temperatures in the 80s and low dewpoints Monday will result in
relative humidities around 15 percent. Winds will be relatively
light, but deep mixing in the afternoon may result in gusts in
excess of 25 mph. Very active fire behavior can be expected. A
cold front will move through western Kansas Monday night, followed
by strong northwest winds and dewpoints in the teens on Tuesday.
Relative humidities likely will fall to near 15 percent Tuesday
afternoon, and a fire weather headline may be required.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 73 42 78 43 / 20 10 0 0
GCK 75 39 78 39 / 20 0 0 10
EHA 71 41 77 38 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 73 39 80 39 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 70 42 78 43 / 20 10 10 20
P28 69 44 80 48 / 50 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...Ruthi
FIRE WEATHER...Ruthi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
532 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC TO NW ONTARIO AND A TROUGH INTO THE SRN PLAINS
RESULTING IN SRLY THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE WRN LAKES. A WELL-
DEFINED SHRTWV OR CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WHILE
WEAKER UPSTREAM SHRTWVS OVER IA/IL SUPPORTED SHRA FROM SRN MN
THROUGH NE IA INTO NRN IL AND NRN INDIANA. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE FROM
NEAR JAMES BAY INTO THE NRN LAKES HAS MAINTAINED DRY LOW LEVEL ERLY
FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. HOWEVER...IR LOOP SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN ASOCIATED MOISTURE AXIS WITH
THE MORE FAVORABLE SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OVER
MN WHILE THE AREA OF PCPN EHAD OF A SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF THE MID MS
VALLEY WILL REMAIN TO THE S OF UPPER MI WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ANY PCPN INTO SRN CWA. EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS WILL
AGAIN REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S N
CNTRL...EAST AND ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MID 50S INLAND WEST.
TONIGHT...CONSISTENT WITH THE MODELS TRENDS...A SHRTWV LIFTING NNE
INTO LOWER MI IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN TO THE EAST
OF UPPER MI. ACCORDINGLY THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER THE SRN AND
ERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
...PATTERN TURNING COLDER WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MID
TO LATE WEEK...
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS VIGOROUS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TIED INTO THE UNRAVELING UPPER TROUGH HEADING TOWARD
OHIO VALLEY/LOWER AND UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. PARTS OF UPPER GREAT LAKES MAY GET CLIPPED
BY THE DECAYING SYSTEM...BUT MOST RAIN SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST OF
UPR MICHIGAN.
ATTN THIS WEEK TURNS TO STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET STREAM OVER 150
KTS PUSHING INTO WEST COAST.THIS MORNING. THIS JET WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND DIG STRONG TROUGH ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
CONUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY LATER TUE. JET WILL EXPAND
ACROSS OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE THIS
WEEK...LEAVING WIDESPREAD TROUGHING FM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARMTH SEEN
OVER THE REGION ON SAT WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER PATTERN MID TO
LATE THIS WEEK...THOUGH MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN WARMER DAY ON TUE
AHEAD OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE. ONCE ESTABLISHED THE COLDER PATTERN
MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DEPART. AT THE LEAST WILL SEE TEMPS AT OR BLO
NORMAL...AND IF THE TROUGH CAN EXPAND DEPTH INTO NORTHERN CANADA
WOULD HAVE CHANCE AT SEEING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EARLY TO MID OF
NEXT WEEK AS RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE SHOWN WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPNIG TO
NEAR -20C. ECMWF IS NOT AS COLD BUT STILL SHOWS -10C TO -12C. PRECIP
IN THIS PATTERN SHIFT COULD BE ACTIVE...WHICH WOULD MEAN A RETURN TO
CHANCES OF SNOW. DOES NOT APPEAR WE ARE DONE WITH WINTRY TYPE
WEATHER YET.
MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL BE EAST OF CWA ON MON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
POSSIBLE DEVELOPING RAIN OVER MAINLY WEST CWA AS SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND TAIL END OF JET STREAK OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING. THIS FORCING DIMINISHES ON MON NIGHT SO
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS ATTM. LEAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH IS COMING ASHORE TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS FOR PACIFIC NW
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES OUT OVER NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH
SECONDARY LOW FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF BOTH THESE FEATURES
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CWA TUE. SEEMS THAT
THERE IS SLOWER TREND IN BRINGING THE MOISTURE AND RAIN IN THOUGH
SO INCREASED HIGHS WITH EXPECTATION THAT THERE MAY BE SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE FOR A WHILE.
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MOVES IN TUE NIGHT AS DOUBLE BARRELLED LOW
MOVES FM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO WISCONSIN BY WED MORNING. DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE LOW/S BOOSTED BY 925-950MB WINDS 40+ KTS COMBINED WITH
PWATS OVER 0.75 INCHES /AT LEAST 250 PCT OF NORMAL/ LEAD TO GOOD
CHANCE OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EVEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN. NAM SEEMS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF SHOWING OVER 1 INCH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. GFS MORE IN THE 0.5-0.75 INCH RANGE. SREF MEMBERS SHOW
DECENT SPREAD BUT ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS INSTEAD OF THE
WETTER NAM. COLD AIR SLOW TO MOVE IN WITH H85 TEMPS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES MARGINAL FOR MUCH SNOW MIXING IN UNTIL LATER WED MORNING
OR WED AFTN. WITH SFC LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION FM NORTHERN ONTARIO...KEWEENAW HIGHER TERRAIN SEEMS TO BE
BEST IN LINE FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT MANY HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF WEST AND NCNTRL CWA MAY SEE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ON WED AS WELL.
SFC-H85 LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEAKENS AS WED NIGHT INTO THU
AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TOWARD NORTHEAST CONUS. GRADUAL
COOLER AIR SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LINGERING
MOIST/CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDING DECAYING LOW-LEVEL LOW. H85 TEMPS OF
-4C TO -6C ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW OVER WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN
COULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS. REST OF EXTENDED...MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH INDIVIDUAL FEATURES. ECMWF SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LINGERING LATE THIS WEEK THEN RETROGRADING BACK TO WEST ONLY
TO BE SWEPT ALONG BY ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN CONUS. GFS
TAKES MAJORITY OF UPPER LOW ON TO THE EAST LATE THIS WEEK. GEM-NH
LINGERS THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ENTIRE TIME. OVERALL
LARGER SCALE MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST SO EXPECT TEMPS AT OR BLO
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. JUST NOT SURE ON ANY SYSTEMS WITHIN THIS
FLOW PATTERN. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH INDICATED LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO THE WEEKEND. PTYPE WILL BE SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EST SUN MAR 13 2016
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS THRU THE FCST
PERIOD...THE LLVLS WL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO BRING ABOUT
PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS/VSBY. BEST CHC FOR CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST APRCH
MVFR WL BE AT SAW BY LATE THIS EVNG WITH SOME LLVL MSTR TRYING TO
RETURN IN NEAR SFC SSE FLOW OFF LK MI. BUT SINCE THE BULK OF THE
PCPN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE SE...WL CONTINUE THE FCST VFR WX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING WHERE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
435 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY WITH THE STRATUS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CLEARING THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. NO STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE WITH SBCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG.
WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT HOWEVER
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT DAMPENING RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
TODAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACCORDING TO THE RAP AND
HRRR MODELS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE
AREA. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND 850HPA TEMPS OF 12-14C AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS ON MONDAY WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. TRENDED TOWARD THE MAV FOR MAX TEMPS...WHICH GENERALLY
INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT
UPPER 60S IN THE PANHANDLE AND LOWER TO MID 70S EAST. FGEN FORCING
AND MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT AND MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
SCHC THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SOME LIFT. SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL AT BEST AS MUCAPE REMAINS UNDER
500J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX -1C OR HIGHER. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT FOR EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...WHERE NAM SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS NEAR 8G/KG VERSUS 4G/KG FARTHER WEST DURING THE DAY. LOWS
DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMP PROFILES FAVORING RAIN FOR MUCH OF NIGHT.
SFC WET BULB DROP BELOW 0C AS MOISTURE TAPERS...SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIX/SWITCH OVER TO SNOW TO END. SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD FOR PART OF
TUESDAY BEFORE A SECOND SURGE OF LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS ARRIVES TUE
AFTN/EVE. GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...850HPA
WINDS 30-40 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND TEMPS NEAR 4C.
LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WESTERN NEBRASKA LIES IN
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW OR QUASI ZONAL FLOW TO START. LATE WEEK...AN
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LEESIDE SFC
LOW DEVELOPS. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE
AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AND PRECIP CHANCES IN
SCHC CATEGORY IN THE NORTH WED AND THU AND IN THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CONDS OVERNIGHT INTO
MID MORNING SUNDAY WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 700 TO 1500 FT AGL.
SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AON 25000 FT AGL EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET SUNDAY
EVENING. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND 1200 FT AGL THROUGH MID MORNING
SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING WITH BROKEN
CIGS AROUND 20000 FT AGL EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
CLEAR AFTER 23Z SUNDAY AT THE KVTN TERMINAL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAY PRESENT THEMSELVES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY APPEARS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS WRN NEB DURING THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LATER FORECASTS SHOULD PREDICT AREAS OF LOWEST AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY...NEAR OR BELOW 15 PERCENT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
356 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY WITH THE STRATUS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CLEARING THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. NO STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE WITH SBCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG.
WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT HOWEVER
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT DAMPENING RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
TODAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACCORDING TO THE RAP AND
HRRR MODELS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE
AREA. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND 850HPA TEMPS OF 12-14C AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS ON MONDAY WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. TRENDED TOWARD THE MAV FOR MAX TEMPS...WHICH GENERALLY
INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT
UPPER 60S IN THE PANHANDLE AND LOWER TO MID 70S EAST. FGEN FORCING
AND MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT AND MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
SCHC THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SOME LIFT. SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL AT BEST AS MUCAPE REMAINS UNDER
500J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX -1C OR HIGHER. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT FOR EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...WHERE NAM SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS NEAR 8G/KG VERSUS 4G/KG FARTHER WEST DURING THE DAY. LOWS
DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMP PROFILES FAVORING RAIN FOR MUCH OF NIGHT.
SFC WET BULB DROP BELOW 0C AS MOISTURE TAPERS...SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIX/SWITCH OVER TO SNOW TO END. SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD FOR PART OF
TUESDAY BEFORE A SECOND SURGE OF LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS ARRIVES TUE
AFTN/EVE. GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...850HPA
WINDS 30-40 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND TEMPS NEAR 4C.
LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WESTERN NEBRASKA LIES IN
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW OR QUASI ZONAL FLOW TO START. LATE WEEK...AN
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LEESIDE SFC
LOW DEVELOPS. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE
AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AND PRECIP CHANCES IN
SCHC CATEGORY IN THE NORTH WED AND THU AND IN THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CONDS OVERNIGHT INTO
MID MORNING SUNDAY WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 700 TO 1500 FT AGL.
SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AON 25000 FT AGL EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET SUNDAY
EVENING. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND 1200 FT AGL THROUGH MID MORNING
SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING WITH BROKEN
CIGS AROUND 20000 FT AGL EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
CLEAR AFTER 23Z SUNDAY AT THE KVTN TERMINAL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
459 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WITH MULTIPLE LOWS EXTENDED FROM OKLAHOMA TO VIRGINIATHIS
MORNING. BY MONDAY MORNING THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BE ENTERING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM
FOR TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES RESULTING IN COOLER
WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT SUNDAY...
CHALLENGING TO NARROW DOWN MOST FAVORED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO MULTIPLE FACTORS THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE
LOCATION OF BEST LIFT. STARTING OFF WITH SOME DRY AIR AT MID
LEVELS BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 1.5 INCHES IN THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA. MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BUT WEAKER PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.
AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. BY THE END OF THE DAY THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RADAR SHOWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. HRRR...LOCAL
WRF AND RAP GUIDANCE...AMONG OTHER EACH HAD SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. OVERALL CONSENSUS WAS TO
BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 15Z/11AM AND 03Z/11PM. HAVE INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT STILL KEPT
LOWER CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS
MORNING WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED ONE BAND OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
ENOUGH CLEARING TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY...THEN ANOTHER BATCH
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE ID
HIGHER FOR THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WHEREVER THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT TODAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE. SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES
WILL SPIKE UP.
BY LATE TONIGHT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WARM FRONT
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IN RESPONSE THE WINDS IN THE
NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA TO THE NORTHEAST AND RELATIVELY
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR GETS PUSHED INTO THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT...EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS 460 CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE.
HAVE MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH. BUFKIT SUGGESTS VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR AND THE NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ADVANCE
ALL THE WAY INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS SHOULD PUSH OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY
MORNING. LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN AS A COOL POOL OF AIR ALOFT
ARRIVES FROM A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EAST FROM TENNESSEE. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR TO ALLOW ENOUGH
SURFACE HEATING THAT WILL BRING CAPE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A DECENT INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY ALSO ALIGN ALONG
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. SPC STILL
ADVERTISES A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOCATIONS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE MOST FAVORABLE...BUT THE BEST SYNOPTIC
LIFT DOES NOT COME UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING. THIS MISALIGNMENT
WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED. ELSEWHERE...LOWER CAPE
AMOUNTS ARE PROJECTED NEAR LYNCHBURG AND BUCKINGHAM DUE TO
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...SO THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF THUNDER.
ONCE THE CONVECTION EXITS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REMAINING RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THAT MOISTURE SHOULD FADE DURING THE DAY AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND
SKIES CLEAR TO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO REACH WELL INTO
THE 60S AND 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE PROMINENT DURING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH COULD SPREAD A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WATAUGA THROUGH GREENBRIER COUNTIES.
SO...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE PLACED IN THIS AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO
THE 70S...WITH EVEN LOWER 80S POSSIBLE AT DANVILLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS FOR
MID WEEK WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A DEEP VORTEX NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THURSDAY....WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAKING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
THURSDAY MAY CAUSE FLOW TO AMPLIFY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SFC LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. STILL TO EARLY TO TELL WHERE THIS
FEATURE MAY TRACK...BUT IT DOES SUGGEST NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE CLOUDY
AND WET FOR THE MID ATLANTIC.
ABOVE SEASONAL WARMTH WILL PEAK MID WEEK PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN BRING MUCH COOLER
WEATHER TO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EST SATURDAY...
DEEPER MOISTURE AGAIN REMAINS LIMITED ALONG THE WEAK STALLED FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION AND WITHIN THE RESIDUAL WEDGE THAT LINGERS TO
SOME DEGREE ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MODELS ALSO TOO MOIST
IN SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THUS TRENDING
MORE VFR UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THIS POINT.
GUIDANCE AGAIN WANTING TO FLOP THE WEDGE BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST EDGES
CLOSER LATE. THIS LOOKS ON TRACK BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A
BAND OF SHOWERS NEARING THE KBLF VICINITY AS WELL BY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. THUS FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE LATEST LAV GUIDANCE IN
DELAYING THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST
SITES...WITH POSSIBLE IFR AROUND KBLF AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
APPEARS A SIMILAR SCENARIO REGARDING FOG WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY DUE MORE TO A LOWERING OF THE STRATUS DECK ALONG THE RIDGES
VS RADIATIVE NATURE GIVEN CLOUD COVER EXCLUDING PERHAPS KDAN/KLYH
LATE WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT BY TO THE WEST
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER
WIDESPREAD WITHIN THE MOISTURE CANOPY...INTENSITY LIKELY CONFINED
TO BANDS OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE
MAINLY EAST LATER SUNDAY. FOR NOW GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A
RATHER SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY TSRA MENTION
WHILE INCLUDING SOME DEGREE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS FOR MOST SITES
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT ESPCLY EAST SUNDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION. AFTER INTERVALS
OF VFR MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/RAINFALL. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE FAVORABLE
FOR HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
TUESDAY WILL FIND US BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF MVFR
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR POST FRONTAL THURSDAY EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR
POSSIBLE KLWB/KBLF.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1133 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM EST SATURDAY...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH MORE OF A WEAK WEDGE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE NEAR THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH AND LESS OVER THE WEST.
EVENING SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A SWATH OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE WHICH ALONG WITH LACK OF MUCH FORCING HAS KEPT
SHOWERS WEST OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER WITH THE
CHANNEL OF HIGHER PWATS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS STARTING TO EDGE
EAST...AND MESO ANALYSIS INDICATING AN AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E JUST
TO OUR WEST...WOULD EXPECT SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS FAR
WEST LATE. THIS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT WHICH STILL
HOLDS OFF MOST DEEP MOISTURE UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK GIVEN THE
LINGERING WEDGE AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM BACK POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE
EAST AND MAINLY ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE COVERAGE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN BUT OVERALL PC
EAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY MOUNTAINS. RAISED LOW TEMPS A CATEGORY IN
SPOTS WEST WHERE OUTSIDE THE WEDGE AND ALONG THE RIDGES GIVEN
MIXING. SHOULD COOL CLOSER TO GUIDANCE EAST PER LINGERING WEAK
EASTERLY TRAJECTORY AND LESS CLOUDS SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY...
IN SITU WEDGE ERODING FAIRLY QUICKLY DESPITE US STILL BEING NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND LACK OF RAINFALL IS
ALLOW FOR THIS EROSION WITH SUNSHINE BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S. EXCEPTIONS ARE SMALLER AREAS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE
FROM BOONE TO FANCY GAP AND ACROSS A FEW OF THE ALLEGHANYS WHERE LOW
CLOUDS REMAIN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AGAIN RADAR REMAINS FREE OF RETURNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VIS SAT
DEPICTING CU FIELDS ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER FROM MARTINSVILLE TO
DANVILLE...AND ANOTHER AREA OVER THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE FAVORING DEVELOPMENT MORE OVER THE FAR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED AT BEST IN THE SRN CWA. EXPECT TO SEE
SUNSHINE REACH AS FAR NORTH AS BLUEFIELD TO DANVILLE...WITH EVEN
SOME PEAKS TOWARD ROANOKE/LYNCHBURG.
HOWEVER...AS WE GET INTO THIS EVENING THE SFC HIGH WILL BE TO OUR
EAST OFF THE NC COAST. MODELS STILL FAVORING A REFORMATION OF WEAK
IN SITU WEDGE WITH LOWER CLOUDS STRATIFYING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE
AND EAST. BEST LIFT WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STAYS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...BUT WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS START TO SLIDE EAST
AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. BY DAWN SUNDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS THE FOOTHILLS.
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL VORTS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
AND SEND BETTER LIFT EASTWARD TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW SOME MILD INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 460. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
THIS INSTABILITY...AND WE WILL NOT SEE ANY SVR THREATS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BY AFTERNOON MOST PLACES WILL SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND HAVE
LIKELY POPS.
WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT WENT MILD...CLOSER TO MAV/ECE MOS OR WARMER...AS
MOS HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL LATELY.
FOR SUNDAY WILL SEE GOOD WAA AS THE WEDGE BREAKS QUICKLY. QUESTION
IS HOW QUICK THE SHOWERS MOVE IN AND AREAL COVERAGE. SHOULD BE MILD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEST...TO LOWER 70S EAST. IF
SUNSHINE DECIDES TO BREAK OUT FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR...COULD SEE
TEMPS JUMP ANOTHER CATEGORY TO LOWER 70S WEST TO MID TO UPPER 70S
EAST.
ALSO...DO NOT FORGET TO MOVE YOUR CLOCKS AHEAD ONE HOUR BEFORE GOING
TO BED TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
IS PROGGED TO TRACK EAST...PASSING OVERHEAD MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND LI OF M4 TO M7. AN
INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FCST TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SRN OR CENTRAL VA ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OCCURS THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINATION OF
COOLING/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE RESULTING IN
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING BOTH BOUYANCY AND
SHEAR. THIS SET- UP FAVORS RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESP
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE PLUME OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 AND TEMPERATURES IN THE U70S ARE FORECAST. PRIMARY RISK
WILL BE FROM SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR
PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ROTATE WITH 0-3KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FORECAST BETWEEN 150 TO 200.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY ALBEIT DRY. WENT ABOVE MAV MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP US MILD AT NIGHT AND
COMBINATION OF HIGH SUN ANGLE WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE WARMER READINGS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS FOR
MID WEEK WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A DEEP VORTEX NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THURSDAY....WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAKING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
THURSDAY MAY CAUSE FLOW TO AMPLIFY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SFC LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. STILL TO EARLY TO TELL WHERE THIS
FEATURE MAY TRACK...BUT IT DOES SUGGEST NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE CLOUDY
AND WET FOR THE MID ATLANTIC.
ABOVE SEASONAL WARMTH WILL PEAK MID WEEK PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN BRING MUCH COOLER
WEATHER TO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EST SATURDAY...
DEEPER MOISTURE AGAIN REMAINS LIMITED ALONG THE WEAK STALLED FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION AND WITHIN THE RESIDUAL WEDGE THAT LINGERS TO
SOME DEGREE ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MODELS ALSO TOO MOIST
IN SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THUS TRENDING
MORE VFR UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THIS POINT.
GUIDANCE AGAIN WANTING TO FLOP THE WEDGE BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST EDGES
CLOSER LATE. THIS LOOKS ON TRACK BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A
BAND OF SHOWERS NEARING THE KBLF VICINITY AS WELL BY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. THUS FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE LATEST LAV GUIDANCE IN
DELAYING THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST
SITES...WITH POSSIBLE IFR AROUND KBLF AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
APPEARS A SIMILAR SCENARIO REGARDING FOG WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY DUE MORE TO A LOWERING OF THE STRATUS DECK ALONG THE RIDGES
VS RADIATIVE NATURE GIVEN CLOUD COVER EXCLUDING PERHAPS KDAN/KLYH
LATE WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT BY TO THE WEST
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER
WIDESPREAD WITHIN THE MOISTURE CANOPY...INTENSITY LIKELY CONFINED
TO BANDS OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE
MAINLY EAST LATER SUNDAY. FOR NOW GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A
RATHER SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY TSRA MENTION
WHILE INCLUDING SOME DEGREE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS FOR MOST SITES
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT ESPCLY EAST SUNDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION. AFTER INTERVALS
OF VFR MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/RAINFALL. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE FAVORABLE
FOR HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
TUESDAY WILL FIND US BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF MVFR
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR POST FRONTAL THURSDAY EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR
POSSIBLE KLWB/KBLF.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
543 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016
...MORE RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES
TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH BAY...
.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY AND ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. RAIN MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE SF BAY AREA ON
SATURDAY...AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO SAN FRANCISCO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...STALLED OVER SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA CLARA
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS NOW
BEGINNING TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY. RAIN RATES IN THE
NORTH BAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT RAINFALL INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
SHOWS RAIN RATES INCREASING IN THE NORTH BAY BY 5 AM...SOUTH
ACROSS THE REST OF THE SF BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BY 8
AM...AND THEN SOUTH INTO MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES BY LATE
MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH LATE TODAY ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY...FROM 0.5-1.5" ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND FROM
0.25-1.25" ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. MINOR URBAN
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY DURING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...INCLUDING FLOODING ON
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS...IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS LEFT THE SOIL SATURATED AND RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH BAY
COUNTIES OF SONOMA...NAPA..AND MARIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LARGER RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RISE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON THE LOWER RUSSIAN RIVER
WHICH IS PROJECTED TO CREST ABOUT THREE FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON
MONDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
IN THE HILLS OF THE SF BAY AREA AND ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP
TO ABOUT 35 MPH.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY
END BY LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY WILL BE
RATHER COOL AND IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT CLEARING ON MONDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE COOLEST
INLAND VALLEYS.
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE
WEST COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AND DEVELOPING DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE LIKELY BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME LOWER
80S IN THE WARMER INLAND SPOTS.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CHANGE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC EDGING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA BY LATE NEXT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PST SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING FRONT TODAY
WILL MAINTAIN SW FLOW ALOFT WHILE TERRAIN WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SE-S. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR TO VFR FOR THE MOST
PART WITH PERIODS OF IFR DURING BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AS TWO PULSES OF
RAIN MOVE THROUGH TODAY. THE MAIN FRONT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR CLEARING CONDITIONS.
VICINITY OF SFO...RAIN EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS BETWEEN. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO IFR DURING HEAVY
RAIN. SE-S WINDS 13-18 KNOTS THIS MORNING BECOMING GUSTY TO 23-28
KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE COLD FRONT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR/MVFR. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY. DRYING CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:53 AM PDT SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
WATERS WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS WILL DEVELOPING BUILDING STEEP SOUTHWEST WAVES. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND EASE BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE STEEP WAVES TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...A
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY DUE TO A ACTIVE
NORTH PACIFIC STORM. EXPECT BUILDING NW SWELL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...NORTH BAY COUNTIES
SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: BFG
MARINE: BFG
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
510 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016
...MORE RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES
TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH BAY...
.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY AND ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. RAIN MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE SF BAY AREA ON
SATURDAY...AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO SAN FRANCISCO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...STALLED OVER SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA CLARA
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS NOW
BEGINNING TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY. RAIN RATES IN THE
NORTH BAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT RAINFALL INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
SHOWS RAIN RATES INCREASING IN THE NORTH BAY BY 5 AM...SOUTH
ACROSS THE REST OF THE SF BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BY 8
AM...AND THEN SOUTH INTO MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES BY LATE
MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH LATE TODAY ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY...FROM 0.5-1.5" ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND FROM
0.25-1.25" ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. MINOR URBAN
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY DURING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...INCLUDING FLOODING ON
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS...IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS LEFT THE SOIL SATURATED AND RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH BAY
COUNTIES OF SONOMA...NAPA..AND MARIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LARGER RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RISE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON THE LOWER RUSSIAN RIVER
WHICH IS PROJECTED TO CREST ABOUT THREE FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON
MONDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
IN THE HILLS OF THE SF BAY AREA AND ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP
TO ABOUT 35 MPH.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY
END BY LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY WILL BE
RATHER COOL AND IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT CLEARING ON MONDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE COOLEST
INLAND VALLEYS.
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE
WEST COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AND DEVELOPING DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE LIKELY BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME LOWER
80S IN THE WARMER INLAND SPOTS.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CHANGE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC EDGING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA BY LATE NEXT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PST SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING FRONT TODAY
WILL MAINTAIN SW FLOW ALOFT WHILE TERRAIN WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SE-S. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR TO VFR FOR THE MOST
PART WITH PERIODS OF IFR DURING BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AS TWO PULSES OF
RAIN MOVE THROUGH TODAY. THE MAIN FRONT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR CLEARING CONDITIONS.
VICINITY OF SFO...RAIN EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS BETWEEN. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO IFR DURING HEAVY
RAIN. SE-S WINDS 13-18 KNOTS THIS MORNING BECOMING GUSTY TO 23-28
KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE COLD FRONT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR/MVFR. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY. DRYING CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:53 AM PDT SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
WATERS WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS WILL DEVELOPING BUILDING STEEP SOUTHWEST WAVES. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND EASE BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE STEEP WAVES TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...A
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY DUE TO A ACTIVE
NORTH PACIFIC STORM. EXPECT BUILDING NW SWELL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...NORTH BAY COUNTIES
SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: BFG
MARINE: BFG
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
346 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016
...MORE RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES
TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH BAY...
.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY AND ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. RAIN MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE SF BAY AREA ON
SATURDAY...AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO SAN FRANCISCO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...STALLED OVER SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA CLARA
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS NOW
BEGINNING TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY. RAIN RATES IN THE
NORTH BAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT RAINFALL INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
SHOWS RAIN RATES INCREASING IN THE NORTH BAY BY 5 AM...SOUTH
ACROSS THE REST OF THE SF BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BY 8
AM...AND THEN SOUTH INTO MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES BY LATE
MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH LATE TODAY ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY...FROM 0.5-1.5" ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND FROM
0.25-1.25" ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. MINOR URBAN
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY DURING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...INCLUDING FLOODING ON
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS...IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS LEFT THE SOIL SATURATED AND RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH BAY
COUNTIES OF SONOMA...NAPA..AND MARIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LARGER RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RISE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON THE LOWER RUSSIAN RIVER
WHICH IS PROJECTED TO CREST ABOUT THREE FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON
MONDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
IN THE HILLS OF THE SF BAY AREA AND ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP
TO ABOUT 35 MPH.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY
END BY LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY WILL BE
RATHER COOL AND IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT CLEARING ON MONDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE COOLEST
INLAND VALLEYS.
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE
WEST COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AND DEVELOPING DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE LIKELY BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME LOWER
80S IN THE WARMER INLAND SPOTS.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CHANGE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC EDGING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA BY LATE NEXT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:18 PM PST SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LOCALLY
IFR. SE-S SURFACE WINDS AND SW-W FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SW-W FLOW ALOFT CONDUCIVE TO ADDITIONAL RAIN INTO SUNDAY...WX
PATTERN IS NEARLY STATIONARY. COLD FRONT MOVES SE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DRIER MONDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...RAIN. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO IFR. SE-S
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING GUSTY TO 20-25 KTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:08 PM PST SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT AS A RESULT OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM SQUARED SEAS
ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LARGE WEST SWELL TRAIN
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PRODUCING
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR VESSELS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE SHORELINE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...NORTH BAY COUNTIES
SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA/DRP
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...A CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE NE GOMEX ASSOCD WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
IS BEING AIDED BY THE ASCENDING LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN 80-89KT JET
MAX NOSING ACRS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TOTAL LTG ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
RATHER SPARSE...HOWEVER...SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING IN
A RATHER DRY AND HOSTILE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. MOTION OF THE
COMPLEX PEGGED ARND 060/20KTS...WHICH WILL TAKE THE BULK OF IT WELL
N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
MORNING RAOBS SHOW A NOTABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE BLO H70 OVER THE
PAST 24HRS WITH PWAT VALUES BTWN 1.00"-1.25" ACRS CENTRAL/SRN FL...
INCREASING TO 1.50"-1.75" ACRS THE PANHANDLE. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING
THE H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WRN ATLC RETREATING EWD AS THE
WEAK SHORT WAVE ADVANCES THRU THE ERN GOMEX. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROF IS SOMEWHAT LACKING WITH RAP ANALYSIS REVEALING A SLUG OF DRY
AIR OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH ARND 60PCT...
INCREASING TO ARND 75PCT N OF I-4.
MID LVL TEMP PROFILE REVEALS A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT
WITH H70 TEMPS INCREASING FROM ARND 5C ALNG AND N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR TO ARND 8C ALONG THE TREASURE COAST...H50 TEMPS BTWN
-9C/-10C AREAWIDE BUT WARMEST TO THE S. THE RESULTING H70-H50 LAPSE
RATES RANGE FROM 5.5-6.0C/KM ALONG AND N OF I-4 TO 6.5-7.0C/KM ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST. SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERSISTS ARND H70
THAT WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP THE LCL AIRMASS BLO 10KFT FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...WITH NEAR FULL SUN...SFC HEATING WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO
THE L/M80S...WHICH ARE NEAR THE CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS AS INDICATED BY
THE KTBW/KXMR 12Z RAOBS.
WHILE MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING...THE AIRMASS IS SUFFICIENTLY PRIMED
FOR PRECIP ONCE CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS ARE REACHED. STRONGLY SUSPECT
THE GOMEX CONVECTION WILL NOT BE THE PRIMARY SOURCE FOR PRECIP THIS
AFTN...BUT RATHER MAY PROVIDE AN OUTFLOW BNDRY THAT WOULD AID IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. OVERALL TSRA STRENGTH WILL BE HAMPERED BY A
MARGINAL DYNAMIC PATTERN WITH LIMITED MID LVL VORTICITY/UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE. FURTHERMORE...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH 15-20KTS OF S/SW FLOW THRU 3KFT. EVEN SO...
ANTICIPATE A QUIET BUT WARM WX PATTERN THRU 2PM WITH INCREASING
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THRU LATE AFTN...THEN CHOKING OFF AFT SUNSET
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OVERALL FCST LOOKS GOOD...MRNG UPDATES TO TUNE UP THE TIMING OF
PRECIP AND FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 14/12Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 13/16Z...S/SW 5-9KTS. BTWN 13/16Z-13/24Z...S/SW 10-
14KTS WITH OCNL SFC G18-22KTS. BTWN 14/00Z-14/03Z...BCMG SW 4-7KTS.
VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 13/16Z...VFR WITH OCNL CIGS ARND FL080 N OF KISM-
KTIX. BTWN 13/16Z-13/19Z...VFR WITH CIGS BTWN FL040-060...SLGT CHC
MVFR SHRAS W OF KLEE-KOBE. BTWN 13/19Z-14/01Z...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SLGT
CHC IFR TSRAS. BTWN 14/01Z-14/08Z...VFR WITH CIGS AOA FL120. AFT
14/08Z...N OF KISM-KTIX AREAS MVFR BR/LCL LIFR FG...S OF KISM-KTIX
AREAS CIGS BTWN FL040-060.
&&
.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SW BREEZE TODAY AS A HI PRES RIDGE OVR THE W
ATLC RETREATS EWD AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF ADVANCING ACRS THE ERN
GOMEX/FL PENINSULA. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE...MAINLY
IN SHORT PD WIND CHOP WITH DOMINANT PDS AOB 6SEC. SHRAS BCMG LIKELY
AFT 2PM WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRAS MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND
20KTS...CONTG THRU SUNSET.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...LASCODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1052 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
OVERALL TREND WITH FIRST WEAK UPPER WAVE HAS BEEN DIMINISHING
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST AND HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE ONLY SHOWING
SOME ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AT BEST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT. WHAT MAY ACTUALLY BETTER FOCUS ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WOULD BE IF A THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP FROM
SOLAR SHELTERING ALONG AN ENHANCED CLOUD COVERAGE AREA MAINLY EAST
OF A COLUMBUS TO ATHENS LINE /PER RECENT VIS SAT OBS/. RAP MLCAPE
IS PROGGED TO REACH IN 500-1000 J/KG RANGE MAXIMIZED IN EAST
CENTRAL GA BY AFTERNOON SO FEEL THIS IS BEST CHANCE AT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACTIVITY TO BE INTENSE
/CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG HOWEVER/. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FCST TRENDS AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTH OUT OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
INITIAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY NEARBY WITH THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS MORNING AND A
CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES VERY WEAK AND
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING A BIT AS WELL SO STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A BIT OF A BREAK TONIGHT AS THE
FIRST SYSTEM EXITS AND THE NEXT APPROACHES. COMPACT BUT FAIRLY
STRONG WAVE SWEEPS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND SUBSEQUENTLY INSTABILITY...ARE A BIT HIGHER WITH
THIS NEXT SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT GREAT...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA MONDAY.
20
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TN VALLEY SHORT WAVE. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED WITH THIS...BUT MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE FRONT
AS IT DRIFTS INTO CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY. LOW POPS LOOK OKAY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SOME DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS IS NOT AS
CLEAR CUT...HOWEVER CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL LOOK
OKAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM BUT SOME COOLING IS NOTED TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
INITIAL MVFR CIGS NEAR 1200-2500 FT AND SOME SLIGHT VSBY
REDUCTIONS ACROSS MAJORITY OF TAF SITES WITH SOME POSSIBLE
IMPROVING FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES. TRENDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
NEAR 4-5 KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY THEN BACK TO MVFR MONDAY MORNING
AFTER 08-10Z ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS. AREAS OF SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAF. WINDS STARTING TO SWING SW WITH SOME LOW END GUSTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY...STAYING NEAR SSW FOR OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
20/BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 56 77 53 / 50 30 40 10
ATLANTA 74 58 75 55 / 40 20 40 5
BLAIRSVILLE 69 53 69 49 / 70 40 50 10
CARTERSVILLE 74 56 75 51 / 40 20 40 5
COLUMBUS 78 57 79 55 / 30 10 20 0
GAINESVILLE 70 56 73 53 / 50 30 40 10
MACON 78 57 80 55 / 40 30 20 5
ROME 74 55 74 50 / 40 20 40 5
PEACHTREE CITY 76 55 76 51 / 40 10 30 5
VIDALIA 78 61 84 59 / 50 30 10 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20/BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
646 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
A deep, compact upper level cyclone was moving into the western
Texas Panhandle early this morning and should move across Oklahoma
into western Arkansas by evening. Temperatures are quite cold in
the center of the upper level cyclone with -25 C at H5 on the ABQ
sounding at 00Z. A cluster of thunderstorms east and north of the
upper level cold pool had propagated into the Oklahoma Panhandle
and western Oklahoma by 07Z, but convective elements were tending
to weaken as they moved away from the cold pool into more stable
air in Kansas. The northern part of the convective cluster
probably will skirt the southern border of Kansas, but the better
chance for significant precipitation will be farther south.
A weak upper level vorticity maximum developed in northwest
Kansas Saturday evening, and satellite imagery and radar suggested
the presence of a weak closed cyclone west of HLC at 07Z. This
upper level cyclone likely will move east during the day and
support an area of showers and thunderstorms across northern
Kansas. POPs in the grids will be modified to indicate higher
chances for measurable rain north and south of Dodge City with a
minimum along the Arkansas River Valley.
Weak upslope flow and nearly saturated air in the lower few
thousand feet of the atmosphere will support extensive stratus
tonight and Sunday morning. The HRR and RAP develop patchy dense
fog early this morning, but hydrolapses on model soundings are
more supportive of low clouds than dense fog. Some restriction in
visibilities can be expected toward sunrise, but it appears likely
that visibilities will remain above dense fog criteria.
A surface trough will propagate across western Kansas with the
upper level trough, and low level winds will become northwest
across all of western Kansas by mid afternoon. Drier air and
downslope flow will result in clearing skies and warm temperatures
this afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler in central Kansas
where cloudiness will be slower to clear out. Light winds and
mostly clear skies tonight will support good radiational cooling,
but the atmosphere is so warm that lows still will be well above
seasonal averages.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
An anomalously strong East Asian jet extending across the Pacific
is impinging on the northwestern United States, and a large area
of exceedingly cold air aloft is moving into the Pacific Northwest
early today. Pressures will fall in the lee of the Rockies Monday,
and a plume of very warm air will cover western Kansas with H8
temperatures above 20C from Dodge City west to Colorado. Highs
should rise into the 80s at most locations. As the Pacific
Northwest trough digs into the northern Plains Tuesday, a cold
front will move across Kansas Monday night. Strong northwest low
level winds and tanking dewpoints will result in very active fire
behavior Tuesday. Temperatures Tuesday will be about 15 degrees
lower than on Monday but still above seasonal averages. Strong
radiational cooling with very dry air will allow temperatures to
fall below freezing for the first time in several days Tuesday
night. Wednesday should be fairly quiet with an upper level
cyclone centered in the Great Lakes and nearly zonal flow aloft in
the Central Plains. Highs should be in the upper 50s and lower
60s.
Strong cyclogenesis off the coast of Asia Monday will start to
buckle the East Asian jet, and downstream cyclogenesis near 160W
on Wednesday will result in development of a sharp ridge in the
eastern Pacific. A deep upper level trough will dig into the
northern Rockies Thursday and move across the Central Plains
Friday and Saturday. Surface anticylogenesis in western Canada
downstream from the sharp upper level ridge in western Canada will
result in evolution of a cold air mass that will plunge into the
central part of the country Thursday night and Friday. Synoptic
scale details differ between the ECMWF and GFS, but the
operational runs of both models suggest that measurable snowfall
may occur in Kansas Friday and/or Saturday. Ensembles from the GFS
and GEM show quite a bit of spread, so details of the event are
uncertain. Regardless of the synoptic scale details, it is almost
certain that temperatures will be cold enough to damage any early
plant growth that has occurred in the extended period of anomalous
warmth in February and early March. Lows in the teens are very
possible if the sky clears over a snow pack. The cold period will
be short lived; zonal flow and much warmer temperatures will
return by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
Poor aviation weather will continue through the morning with
widespread LIFR/IFR ceiling and visibility at GCK, DDC, and to a
lesser degree HYS. Areas of dense fog around the GCK terminal will
persist through 15z. Once the upper low moves far enough east
into Oklahoma later today (early afternoon), drier air moving in
from Colorado behind the low will allow flight category to improve
to VFR at all locations, especially mid afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
Temperatures in the 80s and low dewpoints Monday will result in
relative humidities around 15 percent. Winds will be relatively
light, but deep mixing in the afternoon may result in gusts in
excess of 25 mph. Very active fire behavior can be expected. A
cold front will move through western Kansas Monday night, followed
by strong northwest winds and dewpoints in the teens on Tuesday.
Relative humidities likely will fall to near 15 percent Tuesday
afternoon, and a fire weather headline may be required.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 70 42 80 41 / 20 10 0 0
GCK 72 39 80 38 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 73 41 82 39 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 72 39 81 38 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 68 42 79 42 / 30 10 10 20
P28 67 44 81 45 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ063-075-
076-085-086.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Ruthi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
747 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC TO NW ONTARIO AND A TROUGH INTO THE SRN PLAINS
RESULTING IN SRLY THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE WRN LAKES. A WELL-
DEFINED SHRTWV OR CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WHILE
WEAKER UPSTREAM SHRTWVS OVER IA/IL SUPPORTED SHRA FROM SRN MN
THROUGH NE IA INTO NRN IL AND NRN INDIANA. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE FROM
NEAR JAMES BAY INTO THE NRN LAKES HAS MAINTAINED DRY LOW LEVEL ERLY
FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. HOWEVER...IR LOOP SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN ASOCIATED MOISTURE AXIS WITH
THE MORE FAVORABLE SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OVER
MN WHILE THE AREA OF PCPN EHAD OF A SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF THE MID MS
VALLEY WILL REMAIN TO THE S OF UPPER MI WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ANY PCPN INTO SRN CWA. EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS WILL
AGAIN REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S N
CNTRL...EAST AND ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MID 50S INLAND WEST.
TONIGHT...CONSISTENT WITH THE MODELS TRENDS...A SHRTWV LIFTING NNE
INTO LOWER MI IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN TO THE EAST
OF UPPER MI. ACCORDINGLY THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER THE SRN AND
ERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
...PATTERN TURNING COLDER WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MID
TO LATE WEEK...
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS VIGOROUS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TIED INTO THE UNRAVELING UPPER TROUGH HEADING TOWARD
OHIO VALLEY/LOWER AND UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. PARTS OF UPPER GREAT LAKES MAY GET CLIPPED
BY THE DECAYING SYSTEM...BUT MOST RAIN SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST OF
UPR MICHIGAN.
ATTN THIS WEEK TURNS TO STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET STREAM OVER 150
KTS PUSHING INTO WEST COAST.THIS MORNING. THIS JET WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND DIG STRONG TROUGH ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
CONUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY LATER TUE. JET WILL EXPAND
ACROSS OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE THIS
WEEK...LEAVING WIDESPREAD TROUGHING FM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARMTH SEEN
OVER THE REGION ON SAT WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER PATTERN MID TO
LATE THIS WEEK...THOUGH MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN WARMER DAY ON TUE
AHEAD OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE. ONCE ESTABLISHED THE COLDER PATTERN
MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DEPART. AT THE LEAST WILL SEE TEMPS AT OR BLO
NORMAL...AND IF THE TROUGH CAN EXPAND DEPTH INTO NORTHERN CANADA
WOULD HAVE CHANCE AT SEEING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EARLY TO MID OF
NEXT WEEK AS RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE SHOWN WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPNIG TO
NEAR -20C. ECMWF IS NOT AS COLD BUT STILL SHOWS -10C TO -12C. PRECIP
IN THIS PATTERN SHIFT COULD BE ACTIVE...WHICH WOULD MEAN A RETURN TO
CHANCES OF SNOW. DOES NOT APPEAR WE ARE DONE WITH WINTRY TYPE
WEATHER YET.
MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL BE EAST OF CWA ON MON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
POSSIBLE DEVELOPING RAIN OVER MAINLY WEST CWA AS SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND TAIL END OF JET STREAK OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING. THIS FORCING DIMINISHES ON MON NIGHT SO
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS ATTM. LEAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH IS COMING ASHORE TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS FOR PACIFIC NW
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES OUT OVER NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH
SECONDARY LOW FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF BOTH THESE FEATURES
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CWA TUE. SEEMS THAT
THERE IS SLOWER TREND IN BRINGING THE MOISTURE AND RAIN IN THOUGH
SO INCREASED HIGHS WITH EXPECTATION THAT THERE MAY BE SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE FOR A WHILE.
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MOVES IN TUE NIGHT AS DOUBLE BARRELLED LOW
MOVES FM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO WISCONSIN BY WED MORNING. DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE LOW/S BOOSTED BY 925-950MB WINDS 40+ KTS COMBINED WITH
PWATS OVER 0.75 INCHES /AT LEAST 250 PCT OF NORMAL/ LEAD TO GOOD
CHANCE OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EVEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN. NAM SEEMS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF SHOWING OVER 1 INCH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. GFS MORE IN THE 0.5-0.75 INCH RANGE. SREF MEMBERS SHOW
DECENT SPREAD BUT ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS INSTEAD OF THE
WETTER NAM. COLD AIR SLOW TO MOVE IN WITH H85 TEMPS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES MARGINAL FOR MUCH SNOW MIXING IN UNTIL LATER WED MORNING
OR WED AFTN. WITH SFC LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION FM NORTHERN ONTARIO...KEWEENAW HIGHER TERRAIN SEEMS TO BE
BEST IN LINE FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT MANY HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF WEST AND NCNTRL CWA MAY SEE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ON WED AS WELL.
SFC-H85 LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEAKENS AS WED NIGHT INTO THU
AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TOWARD NORTHEAST CONUS. GRADUAL
COOLER AIR SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LINGERING
MOIST/CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDING DECAYING LOW-LEVEL LOW. H85 TEMPS OF
-4C TO -6C ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW OVER WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN
COULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS. REST OF EXTENDED...MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH INDIVIDUAL FEATURES. ECMWF SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LINGERING LATE THIS WEEK THEN RETROGRADING BACK TO WEST ONLY
TO BE SWEPT ALONG BY ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN CONUS. GFS
TAKES MAJORITY OF UPPER LOW ON TO THE EAST LATE THIS WEEK. GEM-NH
LINGERS THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ENTIRE TIME. OVERALL
LARGER SCALE MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST SO EXPECT TEMPS AT OR BLO
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. JUST NOT SURE ON ANY SYSTEMS WITHIN THIS
FLOW PATTERN. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH INDICATED LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO THE WEEKEND. PTYPE WILL BE SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME THICKENING HIGH/MID CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO BRING ABOUT
PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS/VSBY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST APPORACH MVFR THIS EVENING WILL BE AT SAW BY
LATE THIS EVNG WITH SOME LLVL MSTR TRYING TO RETURN IN NEAR SFC SSE
FLOW OFF LK MI. BUT SINCE THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO
THE SE...WILL CONTINUE THE FCST VFR WX. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TO DROP CIGS TO IFR AT KSAW. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD AND KCMX WHERE A MORE DOWNSLOPE SSE FLOW
PREVAILS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING WHERE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
629 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY WITH THE STRATUS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CLEARING THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. NO STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE WITH SBCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG.
WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT HOWEVER
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT DAMPENING RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
TODAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACCORDING TO THE RAP AND
HRRR MODELS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE
AREA. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND 850HPA TEMPS OF 12-14C AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS ON MONDAY WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. TRENDED TOWARD THE MAV FOR MAX TEMPS...WHICH GENERALLY
INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT
UPPER 60S IN THE PANHANDLE AND LOWER TO MID 70S EAST. FGEN FORCING
AND MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT AND MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
SCHC THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SOME LIFT. SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL AT BEST AS MUCAPE REMAINS UNDER
500J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX -1C OR HIGHER. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT FOR EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...WHERE NAM SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS NEAR 8G/KG VERSUS 4G/KG FARTHER WEST DURING THE DAY. LOWS
DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMP PROFILES FAVORING RAIN FOR MUCH OF NIGHT.
SFC WET BULB DROP BELOW 0C AS MOISTURE TAPERS...SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIX/SWITCH OVER TO SNOW TO END. SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD FOR PART OF
TUESDAY BEFORE A SECOND SURGE OF LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS ARRIVES TUE
AFTN/EVE. GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...850HPA
WINDS 30-40 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND TEMPS NEAR 4C.
LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WESTERN NEBRASKA LIES IN
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW OR QUASI ZONAL FLOW TO START. LATE WEEK...AN
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LEESIDE SFC
LOW DEVELOPS. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE
AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AND PRECIP CHANCES IN
SCHC CATEGORY IN THE NORTH WED AND THU AND IN THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
THE MVFR/IFR CIGS APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING EAST FASTER THAN THE
MODELS FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE VFR WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY 16Z
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL
CLOUDINESS...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WY AND ID.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAY PRESENT THEMSELVES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY APPEARS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS WRN NEB DURING THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LATER FORECASTS SHOULD PREDICT AREAS OF LOWEST AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY...NEAR OR BELOW 15 PERCENT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
946 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
MAIN IMPACT FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE DENSE FOG WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTH EAST NORTH DAKOTA. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH (LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING). HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT BY NOON AND DENSE FOG WILL
IMPROVE...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT AS WIND SHIFTS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. ISSUED A SPS TO INCREASE AWARENESS OF THE SITUATION...BUT
HELD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED SHORTER
NATURE. THERE IS A WORRY THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OFFSET ANY
TEMPERATURE RISE AND CONTINUE DENSE FOG AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH...WHICH DOES NOT MOVE INTO THIS REGION UNTIL MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. IF CONDITIONS DO NOT START IMPROVING BY 11AM MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
RAIN SHOWERS MOST LIKELY EAST OF THE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
LIKELY LIMITED. MOST AREAS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AS RAIN HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...BUT THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD SOME PATCHY
FOG. SOME LOWERED VIS FROM THE SHEYENNE VALLEY UP TOWARDS
KDVL...AND EVEN EAST TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SREF
PROBABILITIES OF LOWER VISIBILITY HANDLE THIS PRETTY WELL SO
FOLLOWED THE TREND OF FOG IN THAT AREA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING MOSTLY EAST WITH THE QPF...BUT THERE ARE SOME
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY SO CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE. THUS KEPT POPS GOING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
HOW FAR WEST RAIN WILL GO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT WV LOOP AND
MODEL ANALYSIS HAS A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN SD. RAIN HAS ALREADY STARTED AT ELBOW LAKE...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL COME IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH
UPPER TROUGH. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP STAYING IN
OUR FAR EASTERN TIER...BUT THE GLOBAL RUNS ARE A BIT FURTHER WEST
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...PARTICULARLY THE GFS. COMPROMISED AND
KEPT HIGHEST POPS AND QPF IN THE EAST BUT HAVE THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS GOING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHICH GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS SEEMS REASONABLE. THE RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH THE EAST STAYING IN THE LOW
50S EVEN WITH A VERY MILD START BUT SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST.
THE PRECIP WILL HEAD OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE SFC TROUGH THAT MOVED IN DURING THE DAY
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS ANOTHER TROUGH REFORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN DEW POINTS AND THERE WILL BE
LINGERING CLOUDS SO KEPT LOWS PRETTY MILD. A FEW OF THE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE OUT DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH THE NAM IN PARTICULAR BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. IT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...BUT GIVEN
ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD SET
SOMETHING OFF AND TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS
IN OUR NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM IN THE UPPER 50S
TO 60S WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW WOBBLES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION IN
EXACTLY HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS FASTER
BRINGING IN THE INITIAL WARM AIR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT BUT THEN DRY
SLOTS US LATER WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE ELONGATED SFC TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE AREA. THE NAM TRACKS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE SFC LOW...BRINGING US RIGHT IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND
PRODUCING A LOT MORE SNOW WITH THE COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. WITH THE
HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAN TOWARDS A GFS AND ECMWF BLEND
WHICH WOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS PERIOD THAN THE LIMITED
AREA NAM. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THIS
POINT WILL HAVE MOSTLY RAIN. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP
LOWS MILD BUT HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOT AS WARM AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY BE ELONGATED
EAST TO WEST FROM UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO
START THE PERIOD...WITH EARLIER STEADY PCPN BECOMING MORE
INTERMITTENT WED/THU. AIRMASS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
MOSTLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MIX OF SNOW WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY BY WED NIGHT/THU. A BREAK IN PCPN IS LIKELY BY FRI WITH
INDICATION OF THE NEXT WAVE INCREASING CHANCES AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING WED NIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS EASING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE SEASONAL VALUES THU AND
FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG HAS ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTH...WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT ALL BUT KTVF WHICH IS MVFR
AND KBJI WHICH IS VFR. THE BETTER CONDITIONS AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES WILL NOT LAST LONG AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POUR IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND RAINFALL OR SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THOSE SITES LATER IN THE
MORNING. LOWERED VIS AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT...AND KDVL COULD GO VFR FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE STRATUS SHOULD BE HANGING AROUND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF FOG REFORMING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AT KTVF AND KBJI. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 12 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/WJB
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
905 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM MISSOURI EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REACH CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE
TONIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS OHIO
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BASED ON LATEST RADAR...HRRR
AND RAP WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FIELDS TO REFLECT
BANDS OF SHRA. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH. SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD START TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
STEADY RAIN BY MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS A LITTLE COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING THEN START TO TAPER OFF
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN
THE ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH KICKS OFF MORE SHOWERS IN THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. POPS ARE IN THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE
AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OHIO. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S EXCEPT UPPER 50S NW PA. QPF FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE NEAR 1 INCH FOR MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE RAINFALL IS
STILL EXPECTED TO CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH ONLY A COUPLE
APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE...OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF
FLOODING PROBLEMS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
WATCH IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
AS A STRONG PACIFIC JET RACES EASTWARD. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL
CURL NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
TRENDED TEMPERATURES UP ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND SUSPECT THEY WILL BE
RATHER WARM IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. VERY DRY AIR WRAPS
IN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
MIXING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THEY STRUGGLE WITH HOW
TO HANDLE THE WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COVERAGE DECREASING INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS NO CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS FOR SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO LITTLE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THERE
IS A 24 HOUR TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM
FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE NORTH FROM SOUTHERN OHIO. EXPECT TO SEE
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF MODERATE
SHOWERS THAT PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CONDITIONS. THE RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL TAKE LONGEST TO REACH
KERI...LIKELY AFTER 18Z. AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE UNDER 12 KNOTS EXCEPT AT KERI WHERE DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS OF THIS SPEED COMBINED
WITH A LONGER FETCH MAY BUILD WAVES CLOSE TO THE 4 FOOT THRESHOLD
FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL
DECREASE INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT ENOUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE BOUNDARY. THE LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST ON TUESDAY FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE. SO EXPECT TO SEE ONSHORE
FLOW IN THIS REGION ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY. SPEEDS OF
10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
945 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WITH MULTIPLE LOWS EXTENDED FROM OKLAHOMA TO VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING. BY MONDAY MORNING THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BE ENTERING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM
FOR TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES RESULTING IN COOLER
WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT SUNDAY...
EXPECT A SLOWER SOLUTION TO RAINFALL MOVING IN THIS MORNING. RADAR
SHOWS SOME 35 TO 40 DBZ REFLECTIVITY OVER THE NC MTNS AS OF
1320Z/0920 EDT. ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING TO LINE UP WITH RADAR AND
FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE 00Z HIRESW-ARW. STILL LOOKS LIKE MORE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER LOOKS SOLID SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH BREAKS. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND MORNING SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE TEMPS NEED TO GET INTO THE MID 70S FOR THUNDER.
STILL ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA.
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING TO NARROW DOWN MOST FAVORED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO MULTIPLE FACTORS THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE
LOCATION OF BEST LIFT. STARTING OFF WITH SOME DRY AIR AT MID
LEVELS BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 1.5 INCHES IN THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA. MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BUT WEAKER PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.
AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. BY THE END OF THE DAY THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RADAR SHOWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. HRRR...LOCAL
WRF AND RAP GUIDANCE...AMONG OTHER EACH HAD SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. OVERALL CONSENSUS WAS TO
BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 15Z/11AM AND 03Z/11PM. HAVE INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT STILL KEPT
LOWER CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS
MORNING WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED ONE BAND OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
ENOUGH CLEARING TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY...THEN ANOTHER BATCH
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE ID
HIGHER FOR THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WHEREVER THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT TODAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE. SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES
WILL SPIKE UP.
BY LATE TONIGHT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WARM FRONT
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IN RESPONSE THE WINDS IN THE
NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA TO THE NORTHEAST AND RELATIVELY
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR GETS PUSHED INTO THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT...EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS 460 CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE.
HAVE MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH. BUFKIT SUGGESTS VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR AND THE NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ADVANCE
ALL THE WAY INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS SHOULD PUSH OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY
MORNING. LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN AS A COOL POOL OF AIR ALOFT
ARRIVES FROM A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EAST FROM TENNESSEE. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR TO ALLOW ENOUGH
SURFACE HEATING THAT WILL BRING CAPE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A DECENT INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY ALSO ALIGN ALONG
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. SPC STILL
ADVERTISES A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOCATIONS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE MOST FAVORABLE...BUT THE BEST SYNOPTIC
LIFT DOES NOT COME UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING. THIS MISALIGNMENT
WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED. ELSEWHERE...LOWER CAPE
AMOUNTS ARE PROJECTED NEAR LYNCHBURG AND BUCKINGHAM DUE TO
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...SO THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF THUNDER.
ONCE THE CONVECTION EXITS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REMAINING RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THAT MOISTURE SHOULD FADE DURING THE DAY AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND
SKIES CLEAR TO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO REACH WELL INTO
THE 60S AND 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE PROMINENT DURING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH COULD SPREAD A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WATAUGA THROUGH GREENBRIER COUNTIES.
SO...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE PLACED IN THIS AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO
THE 70S...WITH EVEN LOWER 80S POSSIBLE AT DANVILLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS FOR
MID WEEK WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A DEEP VORTEX NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THURSDAY....WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAKING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
THURSDAY MAY CAUSE FLOW TO AMPLIFY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SFC LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. STILL TO EARLY TO TELL WHERE THIS
FEATURE MAY TRACK...BUT IT DOES SUGGEST NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE CLOUDY
AND WET FOR THE MID ATLANTIC.
ABOVE SEASONAL WARMTH WILL PEAK MID WEEK PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN BRING MUCH COOLER
WEATHER TO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 0735 AM EDT SUNDAY...
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FROM
15Z/11AM THROUGH 03Z/11PM. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO VFR THEN MVFR AS
THE SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. BUT PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
TONIGHT BOUNDARY ENDS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A NORTHEAST
WIND AT LYNCHBURG AND MORE STABLE AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE WIND DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE SHOWERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN STRATUS AND FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION. AFTER INTERVALS
OF VFR MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/RAINFALL. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE FAVORABLE
FOR HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
TUESDAY WILL FIND US BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF MVFR
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR POST FRONTAL THURSDAY EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR
POSSIBLE KLWB/KBLF.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
741 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WITH MULTIPLE LOWS EXTENDED FROM OKLAHOMA TO VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING. BY MONDAY MORNING THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BE ENTERING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM
FOR TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES RESULTING IN COOLER
WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT SUNDAY...
CHALLENGING TO NARROW DOWN MOST FAVORED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO MULTIPLE FACTORS THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE
LOCATION OF BEST LIFT. STARTING OFF WITH SOME DRY AIR AT MID
LEVELS BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 1.5 INCHES IN THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA. MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BUT WEAKER PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.
AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. BY THE END OF THE DAY THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RADAR SHOWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. HRRR...LOCAL
WRF AND RAP GUIDANCE...AMONG OTHER EACH HAD SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. OVERALL CONSENSUS WAS TO
BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 15Z/11AM AND 03Z/11PM. HAVE INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT STILL KEPT
LOWER CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS
MORNING WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED ONE BAND OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
ENOUGH CLEARING TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY...THEN ANOTHER BATCH
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE ID
HIGHER FOR THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WHEREVER THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT TODAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE. SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES
WILL SPIKE UP.
BY LATE TONIGHT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WARM FRONT
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IN RESPONSE THE WINDS IN THE
NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA TO THE NORTHEAST AND RELATIVELY
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR GETS PUSHED INTO THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT...EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS 460 CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE.
HAVE MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH. BUFKIT SUGGESTS VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR AND THE NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ADVANCE
ALL THE WAY INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS SHOULD PUSH OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY
MORNING. LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN AS A COOL POOL OF AIR ALOFT
ARRIVES FROM A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EAST FROM TENNESSEE. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR TO ALLOW ENOUGH
SURFACE HEATING THAT WILL BRING CAPE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A DECENT INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY ALSO ALIGN ALONG
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. SPC STILL
ADVERTISES A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOCATIONS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE MOST FAVORABLE...BUT THE BEST SYNOPTIC
LIFT DOES NOT COME UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING. THIS MISALIGNMENT
WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED. ELSEWHERE...LOWER CAPE
AMOUNTS ARE PROJECTED NEAR LYNCHBURG AND BUCKINGHAM DUE TO
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...SO THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF THUNDER.
ONCE THE CONVECTION EXITS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REMAINING RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THAT MOISTURE SHOULD FADE DURING THE DAY AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND
SKIES CLEAR TO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO REACH WELL INTO
THE 60S AND 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE PROMINENT DURING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH COULD SPREAD A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WATAUGA THROUGH GREENBRIER COUNTIES.
SO...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE PLACED IN THIS AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO
THE 70S...WITH EVEN LOWER 80S POSSIBLE AT DANVILLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS FOR
MID WEEK WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A DEEP VORTEX NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THURSDAY....WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAKING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
THURSDAY MAY CAUSE FLOW TO AMPLIFY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SFC LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. STILL TO EARLY TO TELL WHERE THIS
FEATURE MAY TRACK...BUT IT DOES SUGGEST NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE CLOUDY
AND WET FOR THE MID ATLANTIC.
ABOVE SEASONAL WARMTH WILL PEAK MID WEEK PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN BRING MUCH COOLER
WEATHER TO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 0735 AM EDT SUNDAY...
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FROM
15Z/11AM THROUGH 03Z/11PM. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO VFR THEN MVFR AS
THE SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. BUT PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
TONIGHT BOUNDARY ENDS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A NORTHEAST
WIND AT LYNCHBURG AND MORE STABLE AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE WIND DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE SHOWERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN STRATUS AND FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION. AFTER INTERVALS
OF VFR MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/RAINFALL. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE FAVORABLE
FOR HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
TUESDAY WILL FIND US BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF MVFR
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR POST FRONTAL THURSDAY EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR
POSSIBLE KLWB/KBLF.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
301 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS STORM WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL
BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ALONG WITH RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. COOL MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
THOUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
WILL BRING DRY MILD WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WASHINGTON. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...AND IT SHOULD REACH THE PUGET SOUND REGION
IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS...AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUED IN
THE NORTH INTERIOR.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR 42N/132W...WHICH
SHOWS UP IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS THE
FEATURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BRING A WINDSTORM TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS ITS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
TO AROUND 980 MB OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND.
THERE IS A CLUSTER OF THE MOST RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT STILL
FOLLOWS THE STORM TRACK DESCRIBED JUST ABOVE -- INCLUDING THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS20. THE GFS40 SHOWS THE LOW CURVING MORE
SHARPLY NORTH...REMAINING WEST OF THE WASHINGTON COAST AND
CROSSING THE MIDDLE OR NORTH PART OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THAT WOULD
PRODUCE A SOUTHEAST SUCKER EVENT...WHERE HIGH WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIMITED TO THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. THE HRRR -- WHICH RUNS
EVERY HOUR AND GOES OUT ONLY 14 HOURS -- SHOWS THE LOW ON A TRACK
THAT IS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF
SOLUTIONS...MAKING LANDFALL NEAR LONG BEACH.
IN GENERAL THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE DEPTH OF THE
LOW -- SOMEWHERE NEAR 980 MB NOW LOOKS MOST LIKELY -- AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE AND WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ECMWF SHOWS THE PDX-BLI PRESSURE DIFFERENCE PEAKING AROUND 12 MB
LATE TODAY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND...WHICH
IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS IN THE WESTERN
WASHINGTON INTERIOR. THE GFS20 ALSO SHOWS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCAL HIGH WINDS IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
INCLUDING THE PUGET SOUND REGION.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT WINDSTORM IS NOT
AS HIGH AS IT WAS 12 OR 24 HOURS AGO. THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE
ISSUED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. WE
ARE LOWERING THE WIND SPEEDS SOMEWHAT -- ESSENTIALLY FORECASTING
HIGHEST WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 55 TO 60 MPH RATHER THAN
THE 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS 70 MPH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN
MOST AREAS THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TONIGHT...WITH
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH. RAINFALL IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH...WITH
0.50 TO 1.25 INCH AT THE COAST. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 2500 TO
3500 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 2000 FT MONDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. UP TO 2.5
INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS AROUND MOUNT
BAKER AND MOUNT RAINIER. A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON MONDAY FOR THE CASCADES OF
WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES AND THE CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS
COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START BUILDING WELL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...BUT
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH
MAYBE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A
RATHER SHOWERY DAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL STILL BE 2000 TO 2500 FT. MCDONNAL
.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE ALONG 135W ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND THE AIR MASS GRADUALLY DRYING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH SOME
SUNSHINE. MCDONNAL
&&
.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TODAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY TONIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. MANY AIRPORTS COULD HAVE GUSTS
OF 40-60 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND MOIST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ALL
LEVELS. RAIN ON THE COAST WILL SPREAD INLAND THIS MORNING...THEN
TURN TO SHOWERS TONIGHT. MOST CEILINGS INLAND ARE VFR BUT AS RAIN
DEVELOPS THEY WILL FALL TO MVFR 2-3K FT AND REMAIN MVFR ALL DAY
AND PROBABLY TONIGHT AS WELL.
KSEA...VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL TO MVFR
LATER THIS MORNING. WINDSTORM EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS 45-55 KT POSSIBLE 22Z-03Z. CHB
&&
MARINE...A 980 MB SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO MOST OF THE
WATERS...IF NOT IN THE PRE-LOW SOUTHEASTERLIES...THEN IN THE
POST- LOW WEST- AND SOUTHWESTERLIES.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 20 TO 23 FT TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS AROUND
GRAYS HARBOR. SOME BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW THURSDAY. CHB
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL PROBABLY FLOOD AGAIN
TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MASON COUNTY.
OTHERWISE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON AREA RIVERS FOR THE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-CENTRAL COAST-
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-EVERETT AND VICINITY-HOOD CANAL
AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-NORTH COAST-SEATTLE AND
VICINITY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-EVERETT AND
VICINITY-HOOD CANAL AREA-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CASCADES OF
PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PDT MONDAY FOR
CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM
AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PDT MONDAY FOR
CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES.
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR HOOD
CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN
SKAGIT COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
COAST.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WEST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1117 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016
...MORE RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES
TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH BAY...
.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY AND ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. RAIN MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:20 AM PDT SUNDAY... KMUX RADAR SHOWING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS AS OF 5AM ARE HIGHEST OVER THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS (UP TO 2.71")... NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS (UP TO
1.65")... AND THE EAST BAY HILLS (UP TO 1.86"). DOWNTOWN SAN
FRANCISCO PICKED UP 1.22". ELSEWHERE... PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE
TOTALED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AN INCH.
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BE POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OF A
MOIST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT 1.1"-1.3" PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIMED DIRECTLY AT NORTH AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TODAY. MODELS SHOWED A SMALL
VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER UPPER LOW SWEEPING
ACROSS THE OREGON/WASHINGTON BORDER THIS MORNING... AND THIS
FEATURE IS NOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE MAY
HELP TO ENHANCE RAINFALL INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING THE EXTREME NORTH BAY.
LATEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED FORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXTREME NORTH BAY AND
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE
EXTREME NORTH BAY NOW RUN 2 TO 4 INCHES... WHICH SUPPORT THE
CONTINUATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THAT AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUSSIAN RIVER FORECAST POINT AT GUERNEVILLE
STILL PROJECTS PEAK CRESTING JUST ABOVE MONITOR STAGE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT 29 FEET (29.2 FEET IS
FORECAST)... MINOR FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE RUSSIAN RIVER NEAR GUERNEVILLE.
STEADY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND TRANSITION INTO RAIN
SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST RAIN WE
SEE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK... AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING TREND FOR THE AREA... WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
ONSHORE. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT BIG
SHIFT IN THE WEATHER COULD COME NEXT WEEKEND WHILE A LARGE UPPER
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE SF BAY AREA
ON SATURDAY...AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO SAN FRANCISCO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...STALLED OVER SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA CLARA
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS NOW
BEGINNING TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY. RAIN RATES IN THE
NORTH BAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT RAINFALL INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
SHOWS RAIN RATES INCREASING IN THE NORTH BAY BY 5 AM...SOUTH
ACROSS THE REST OF THE SF BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BY 8
AM...AND THEN SOUTH INTO MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES BY LATE
MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH LATE TODAY ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY...FROM 0.5-1.5" ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND FROM
0.25-1.25" ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. MINOR URBAN
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY DURING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...INCLUDING FLOODING ON
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS...IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS LEFT THE SOIL SATURATED AND RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH BAY
COUNTIES OF SONOMA...NAPA..AND MARIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LARGER RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RISE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON THE LOWER RUSSIAN RIVER
WHICH IS PROJECTED TO CREST ABOUT THREE FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON
MONDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
IN THE HILLS OF THE SF BAY AREA AND ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP
TO ABOUT 35 MPH.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY
END BY LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY WILL BE
RATHER COOL AND IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT CLEARING ON MONDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE COOLEST
INLAND VALLEYS.
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE
WEST COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AND DEVELOPING DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE LIKELY BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME LOWER
80S IN THE WARMER INLAND SPOTS.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CHANGE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC EDGING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA BY LATE NEXT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY WHICH IS CAUSING CIGS TO BOUNCE UP AND DOWN FROM
MVFR TO VFR. AT THE SAME TIME WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GO
MORE TO THE 230 TO 260 DIRECTION. NEEDLESS TO SAY, LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST WITH THE SPECIFICS FOR ALL OF THE TAFS.
VICINITY OF SFO...WINDS OF 200 TO 230 FORECAST TO INCREASE AROUND
20Z WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KT FORECAST. CIGS FORECAST TO MOSTLY STAY
MVFR TODAY. RAIN SWITCHES TO -SHRA AFTER 01Z AND THEN MOSTLY DRY
AFTER 04Z. LOW CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR/MVFR. RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY WITH CIGS MVFR TO POSSIBLY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 11:15 AM PDT SUNDAY...LOOK FOR GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH. THE WINDS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE STEEP SOUTHWEST WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND EASE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE STEEP WAVES
TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE
WATERS TODAY DUE TO A ACTIVE NORTH PACIFIC STORM. EXPECT BUILDING
NW SWELL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...NORTH BAY
SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
923 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016
...MORE RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES
TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH BAY...
.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY AND ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. RAIN MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:20 AM PDT SUNDAY... KMUX RADAR SHOWING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS AS OF 5AM ARE HIGHEST OVER THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS (UP TO 2.71")... NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS (UP TO
1.65")... AND THE EAST BAY HILLS (UP TO 1.86"). DOWNTOWN SAN
FRANCISCO PICKED UP 1.22". ELSEWHERE... PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE
TOTALED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AN INCH.
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BE POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OF A
MOIST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT 1.1"-1.3" PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIMED DIRECTLY AT NORTH AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TODAY. MODELS SHOWED A SMALL
VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER UPPER LOW SWEEPING
ACROSS THE OREGON/WASHINGTON BORDER THIS MORNING... AND THIS
FEATURE IS NOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE MAY
HELP TO ENHANCE RAINFALL INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING THE EXTREME NORTH BAY.
LATEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED FORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXTREME NORTH BAY AND
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE
EXTREME NORTH BAY NOW RUN 2 TO 4 INCHES... WHICH SUPPORT THE
CONTINUATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THAT AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUSSIAN RIVER FORECAST POINT AT GUERNEVILLE
STILL PROJECTS PEAK CRESTING JUST ABOVE MONITOR STAGE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT 29 FEET (29.2 FEET IS
FORECAST)... MINOR FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE RUSSIAN RIVER NEAR GUERNEVILLE.
STEADY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND TRANSITION INTO RAIN
SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST RAIN WE
SEE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK... AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING TREND FOR THE AREA... WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
ONSHORE. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT BIG
SHIFT IN THE WEATHER COULD COME NEXT WEEKEND WHILE A LARGE UPPER
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE SF BAY AREA
ON SATURDAY...AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO SAN FRANCISCO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...STALLED OVER SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA CLARA
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS NOW
BEGINNING TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY. RAIN RATES IN THE
NORTH BAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT RAINFALL INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
SHOWS RAIN RATES INCREASING IN THE NORTH BAY BY 5 AM...SOUTH
ACROSS THE REST OF THE SF BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BY 8
AM...AND THEN SOUTH INTO MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES BY LATE
MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH LATE TODAY ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY...FROM 0.5-1.5" ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND FROM
0.25-1.25" ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. MINOR URBAN
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY DURING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...INCLUDING FLOODING ON
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS...IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS LEFT THE SOIL SATURATED AND RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH BAY
COUNTIES OF SONOMA...NAPA..AND MARIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LARGER RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RISE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON THE LOWER RUSSIAN RIVER
WHICH IS PROJECTED TO CREST ABOUT THREE FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON
MONDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
IN THE HILLS OF THE SF BAY AREA AND ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP
TO ABOUT 35 MPH.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY
END BY LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY WILL BE
RATHER COOL AND IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT CLEARING ON MONDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE COOLEST
INLAND VALLEYS.
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE
WEST COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AND DEVELOPING DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE LIKELY BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME LOWER
80S IN THE WARMER INLAND SPOTS.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CHANGE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC EDGING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA BY LATE NEXT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PST SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING FRONT TODAY
WILL MAINTAIN SW FLOW ALOFT WHILE TERRAIN WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SE-S. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR TO VFR FOR THE MOST
PART WITH PERIODS OF IFR DURING BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AS TWO PULSES OF
RAIN MOVE THROUGH TODAY. THE MAIN FRONT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR CLEARING CONDITIONS.
VICINITY OF SFO...RAIN EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS BETWEEN. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO IFR DURING HEAVY
RAIN. SE-S WINDS 13-18 KNOTS THIS MORNING BECOMING GUSTY TO 23-28
KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE COLD FRONT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR/MVFR. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY. DRYING CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 08:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
WATERS WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS WILL DEVELOPING BUILDING STEEP SOUTHWEST WAVES. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND EASE BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE STEEP WAVES TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...A
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY DUE TO A ACTIVE
NORTH PACIFIC STORM. EXPECT BUILDING NW SWELL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...NORTH BAY COUNTIES
SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: BFG
MARINE: BFG
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
235 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FIRST PART OF SHORT TERM CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK IMPULSE PUSHING NEWD
AND A MORE DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO ATHENS LINE WHERE SOLAR SHELTERING ALONG THE EDGE OF SOME
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING HAS RESULTED IN A THERMAL
GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD HELP FOCUS ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE INITIATION
FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. RAP GUIDANCE AND LATEST TRENDS
SUPPORT 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE FOR SOUTHEAST TIER SO COULD HAVE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH BEYOND GENERAL THREAT.
SHOULD HAVE LULL IN ANY PRECIP OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE...WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
MOIST/TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED 975MB RH
FIELD SHOWING GOOD SATURATION. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF
GREATER COVERAGE IF WE GET SOME LOCATIONS OF CLEARING NEAR MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE MONDAY WILL HAVE A QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP POTENTIAL
MAINLY TO NORTH GA WITH GREATEST CHANCE IN AFTERNOON. THE TIMING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROGGED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DECENT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AND PERHAPS A HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER DEVELOPMENT. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FCST QPF SPITS
OUT UPWARDS OF A QUICK QUARTER INCH FOR THE NORTHERN TIER WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE...THOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS.
TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABNORMALLY HIGH WITH VALUES AT 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO. DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE MORE LIMITED FROM ANY
PRECIP/ENHANCED CLOUD COVERAGE FROM AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE.
BAKER
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS LONG RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET PERIOD ON TUESDAY... BEFORE
SAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... JUST STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY
JUST WHERE THIS FOCUS WILL BE. LATEST MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES BEING OVER CENTRAL GA... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD ONTO POPS ACROSS NORTH GA AS WELL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WET PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND... WARRANTING CHANCE
POPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT LEAST ON SATURDAY. STAY
TUNED. 39
PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016/
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TN VALLEY SHORT WAVE. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED WITH THIS...BUT MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE FRONT
AS IT DRIFTS INTO CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY. LOW POPS LOOK OKAY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SOME DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS IS NOT AS
CLEAR CUT...HOWEVER CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL LOOK
OKAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM BUT SOME COOLING IS NOTED TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016/
18Z UPDATE...
CIGS IMPROVED TO VFR IN 4-5 KFT LEVEL FOR AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND SOME
SOLAR HEATING. THINKING BEST CHANCE FOR ANY -TSRA WILL BE NEAR
KMCN OTHERWISE HAVE CARRIED VCSH ELSEWHERE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. COULD
HAVE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT OR STAY FEW/SCT IN MIDLEVELS...THOUGH
GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER ABOUT 09Z AND SOME MVFR
VSBY POTENTIAL. CIGS LIFT/SCATTER AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
COVERAGE STAYING GREATER FOR NORTHERN SITES WITH INFLUENCE OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. COULD HAVE -SHRA AS FAR SOUTH AS
KATL IN 17-23Z PERIOD AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER AS
WELL. WINDS OVERALL SW WITH SOME LOW END GUSTS BOTH AFTERNOONS AND
LIGHT SSW OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF FOG
IN THE EARLY MORNING AS WELL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON OVERNIGHT CIG TIMING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 55 77 53 83 / 20 30 10 0
ATLANTA 57 75 55 82 / 10 30 10 0
BLAIRSVILLE 51 69 49 78 / 20 40 20 0
CARTERSVILLE 54 73 51 82 / 10 30 10 0
COLUMBUS 57 79 56 84 / 5 20 5 0
GAINESVILLE 54 72 53 80 / 20 30 10 0
MACON 57 79 55 84 / 20 10 5 0
ROME 54 74 50 82 / 20 40 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 53 75 51 82 / 10 30 5 0
VIDALIA 61 83 59 85 / 30 10 5 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
147 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016/
.UPDATE...
OVERALL TREND WITH FIRST WEAK UPPER WAVE HAS BEEN DIMINISHING
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST AND HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE ONLY SHOWING
SOME ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AT BEST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT. WHAT MAY ACTUALLY BETTER FOCUS ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WOULD BE IF A THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP FROM
SOLAR SHELTERING ALONG AN ENHANCED CLOUD COVERAGE AREA MAINLY EAST
OF A COLUMBUS TO ATHENS LINE /PER RECENT VIS SAT OBS/. RAP MLCAPE
IS PROGGED TO REACH IN 500-1000 J/KG RANGE MAXIMIZED IN EAST
CENTRAL GA BY AFTERNOON SO FEEL THIS IS BEST CHANCE AT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACTIVITY TO BE INTENSE
/CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG HOWEVER/. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FCST TRENDS AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTH OUT OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
INITIAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY NEARBY WITH THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS MORNING AND A
CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES VERY WEAK AND
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING A BIT AS WELL SO STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A BIT OF A BREAK TONIGHT AS THE
FIRST SYSTEM EXITS AND THE NEXT APPROACHES. COMPACT BUT FAIRLY
STRONG WAVE SWEEPS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND SUBSEQUENTLY INSTABILITY...ARE A BIT HIGHER WITH
THIS NEXT SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT GREAT...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA MONDAY.
20
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TN VALLEY SHORT WAVE. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED WITH THIS...BUT MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE FRONT
AS IT DRIFTS INTO CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY. LOW POPS LOOK OKAY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SOME DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS IS NOT AS
CLEAR CUT...HOWEVER CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL LOOK
OKAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM BUT SOME COOLING IS NOTED TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CIGS IMPROVED TO VFR IN 4-5 KFT LEVEL FOR AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND SOME
SOLAR HEATING. THINKING BEST CHANCE FOR ANY -TSRA WILL BE NEAR
KMCN OTHERWISE HAVE CARRIED VCSH ELSEWHERE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. COULD
HAVE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT OR STAY FEW/SCT IN MIDLEVELS...THOUGH
GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER ABOUT 09Z AND SOME MVFR
VSBY POTENTIAL. CIGS LIFT/SCATTER AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
COVERAGE STAYING GREATER FOR NORTHERN SITES WITH INFLUENCE OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. COULD HAVE -SHRA AS FAR SOUTH AS
KATL IN 17-23Z PERIOD AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER AS
WELL. WINDS OVERALL SW WITH SOME LOW END GUSTS BOTH AFTERNOONS AND
LIGHT SSW OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF FOG
IN THE EARLY MORNING AS WELL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON OVERNIGHT CIG TIMING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 56 77 53 / 50 20 30 10
ATLANTA 74 58 75 55 / 40 10 30 10
BLAIRSVILLE 69 53 69 49 / 70 20 40 20
CARTERSVILLE 74 56 75 51 / 40 10 30 10
COLUMBUS 78 57 79 55 / 30 5 20 5
GAINESVILLE 70 56 73 53 / 50 20 30 10
MACON 78 57 80 55 / 40 20 10 5
ROME 74 55 74 50 / 40 20 40 10
PEACHTREE CITY 76 55 76 51 / 40 10 30 5
VIDALIA 78 61 84 59 / 50 30 10 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
259 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1005mb low near KPIA, with
widespread light showers ongoing across the western half of the KILX
CWA. Further east and south, the steady precip has diminished to
widely scattered showers along/south of a Danville to Taylorville
line. The primary area of rain will continue to dissipate/retreat
northward as the low tracks into northern Illinois this evening.
Based on radar timing tools, most of the rain will be just north of
the CWA by early evening. Will therefore only carry chance PoPs
through the evening, with highest chances focused across the far
north around Galesburg and Lacon in closer proximity to the departing
low. A second area of low pressure currently over Oklahoma will
track into western Kentucky by Monday morning. This feature will
spread showers and a few thunderstorms into the SE CWA overnight, so
have carried likely PoPs along/south of I-70 after midnight
accordingly. Due to a very weak pressure gradient, winds will be
light and variable tonight. With nearly calm winds and ample low-
level moisture left behind by the rainfall today, think fog will re-
develop across the area tonight. HRRR continues to show widespread
fog across all but the SE where rain will be falling. The fog could
potentially become dense: however, timing and areal extent remain in
question. Will carry areas of fog in the forecast, but later shifts
may need to issue a Dense Fog Advisory if trends become apparent
later this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
Forecast focus this period on the threat for severe weather over
parts of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Compact upper level storm tracking east-northeast through Arkansas
then into western Ky Monday morning will bring showers and isolated
storms to parts of southeast Illinois, at least through the morning
hours, while further north, the low clouds, fog and shower chances
end from northwest to southeast during the morning with only the
southeast quarter of the forecast area still seeing the threat for
afternoon showers. Forecast soundings continue to hold on to the low
level moisture across the area into the afternoon hours so the
prospects for much in the way of sunshine are low, with most areas
seeing afternoon temperatures rise into the low to mid 60s.
As the deepening upper wave for Tuesday pushes across the Rockies
and into the high Plains late Monday night, the threat for at
least scattered showers and storms will increase out to our west
Monday night with chances increasing over our western counties
after Midnight. Still some significant differences with respect to
how quickly the upper wave tracks east across the Great Lakes with
the ECMWF the slowest, while the GFS remains the fastest in pushing
the front to our east by late afternoon Tuesday. The ECMWF digs
the shortwave southeast in response to ridging over the eastern
Pacific and that is tending to slow the system down compared to
the more progressive look from the GFS and SREF ensemble solutions.
You would have thought we would have seen a slowing trend from the
GFS, NAM and SREF solutions by now, but up through the 12z models
runs of today, we haven`t, which keeps confidence on timing and
storm mode in our area on Tuesday low.
All models continue to show deep layer shear associated with the
upper wave as it becomes negatively tilted late in the day Tuesday
with strong low level turning of the winds seen on the hodographs,
especially off the NAM. 850 mb winds depicted on the ECMWF were
southeasterly at 40-45 kts in the 21z-00z time frame across our
north. SREF forecasts of surface dew points were a bit more
conservative on Tuesday afternoon, compared with the NAM, with
mostly middle 50s forecast across our area, while the NAM near
60 degree dew points which pushed SB cape values above 2500 J/KG
over the eastern half of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon.
Forecast soundings off the NAM and GFS continue to show a capping
inversion in place at least into the early afternoon hours before
low level convergence starts to increase in the 925-850 mb layer
just ahead of the front, which should allow convection to
develop. The 4km NAM-WRF reflectivity simulations suggest the
development of storms off to our east after 21z just ahead of the
increasing low level moisture convergence. However, if the timing
off the ECMWF is correct, storms will develop by mid afternoon
further west, along or just west of Interstate 55 and streak east-
northeast through the rest of the forecast area by 02z.
Based off the low level wind profiles seen on the ECMWF, discrete
supercells capable of large hail (with 700-500 mb lapse rates over
7.0 C/KM) damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible
for a few hours, especially if the high dew points seen on the NAM
verify, before cells consolidate into a fast moving line with
mainly a damaging wind threat through late afternoon into early
evening. If the GFS verifies, storms will develop in areas east of
I-55 and be out of our area by 00z. Still quite a bit of uncertainty
with the timing of the shortwave and attendant cold front for late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. For now, will continue to mention
the higher probabilities for damaging straight line winds and hail
in the HWO for Tuesday, but as mentioned above, if the low level
moisture increases more than what is advertised in most models,
the tornado threat will start to become a concern as well Tuesday
afternoon.
Highest POPS for Tuesday will continue to be across the north with
progressively lower POPs as you head south during the afternoon and
evening. Strong gusty southerly winds are expected by late morning
into the afternoon hours as the deepening upper and surface lows
track to our west-northwest. Shower chances start to decrease
later Tuesday night as the front shifts well off to our east and
then windy conditions expected Wednesday in the wake of the storm
as it tracks slowly east across north-central Wisconsin.
Temperatures at least initially, will not cool off much on Wed.
with upper 50s to lower 60s expected during the afternoon, with
the gradual cooling trend starting on Thursday and continuing
through Sunday with temperatures returning closer to normal for
this time of year. Our next chance for rain across central IL will
be next weekend, but POPs were kept low this far out as model
spread was large.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
17z/12pm surface analysis shows a 1006mb low between KPIA and
KSPI. Winds to the east of the low are from the S/SW at most of
the central Illinois terminals early this afternoon, while winds
to the west of the low remain from the NE at KPIA. As the low
tracks into northern Illinois, a trailing trough axis will lead to
a very weak pressure gradient tonight, resulting in light/variable
winds through 18z Mon. Rain is currently falling across much of
the area: however, the rain area is rapidly lifting to the N/NW.
Based on radar timing tools, have ended predominant rain at
KSPI/KDEC/KCMI by 20z...then further northwest to KPIA by 23z.
Despite an end to the steady precip, IFR ceilings will continue
through the entire 18z TAF period. Due to very light winds and
ample low-level moisture, fog will re-develop tonight. Early
indications from the HRRR suggest it could become locally dense
after midnight. Have included a tempo group with visbys down to
1/2 miles at all sites between 08z and 12z accordingly.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
Persistent upper low that had been in place over Texas for the
past couple of days has finally been ejected northward and is now
located over southern Illinois. With strong synoptic lift and
deep-layer moisture in place as evidenced by the 12z KILX upper
air sounding, widespread showers are accompanying the weakening
low. 14z/9am radar imagery shows showers blanketing nearly the
entire area, except southeast of I-70 where the precip is a bit
more scattered in nature. Given current trends, have increased
PoPs to 100 percent across the board this morning. Models continue
to show the wave lifting into the southern Great Lakes later
today, leading to a decrease in precip this afternoon/evening.
Have lowered PoPs to the chance category along/south of I-72 by
late this afternoon accordingly. Given weak pressure gradient in
the vicinity of a surface wave tracking through central Illinois,
winds will remain quite light and areas of fog will likely persist
for much of the day. Afternoon high temperatures will range from
the middle 50s far north around Galesburg and Lacon...to the
middle 60s south of I-70. Forecast update has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
A weakening open upper level wave is now moving rapidly northeast
toward the Midwest...while a weak frontal boundary is draped east-
west across Illinois near St. Louis to Lawrenceville. A scattered
line of showers is oriented across the state north of the boundary
in warm advection aloft...while additional showers are approaching
from the south lifted by the approaching upper low. While scattered
showers are likely much of the day as a result of these two
features, the best chances will be I-55/I-155 eastward according to
the current trajectory of the upper low. Quite a few observations of
1-2 mile visibility in fog noted in observations this morning, with
a few lower values as well. Have included patchy fog in the forecast
for today as a result. Instability looks to be weak today...but
enough for isolated thunderstorms from Schuyler county to Vermilion
county southward by late morning. Winds today should be weak and
somewhat variable as the weak surface low passes through central IL,
and temperatures ranging from 57 in Galesburg to 66 in Lawrenceville.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
Weakening upper level low pressure near the eastern MO/AR border
tracks toward the eastern central IL and IN border by sunset and
into southern lower MI by sunrise Monday. Meanwhile a 2nd cutoff
upper level low (553 dm over north Texas) to track into the Ozarks
in northern AR by midnight tonight and into southern IL by sunrise
Monday. A good chance of showers this evening across CWA with areas
of fog northern CWA and isolated thunderstorms south of a Rushville
to Bloomington line. Then best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms shifts into southeast IL overnight with approaching
2nd upper level low and better lift in southern IL overnight. Lows
tonight in the upper 40s north and mid 50s near Lawrenceville.
Continued chances of showers Monday morning with isolated
thunderstorms east of I-57, then shower chances diminish from the
west by Monday afternoon as 2nd upper level low lifts to the
northern IN/OH border by sunset Monday. A fair amount of low clouds
lingers Monday with highs in the low to mid 60s, coolest from I-74
ne. Most areas will be dry Monday night, though have 20-30% chance
of showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight monday night
from I-55 west. This due to a stronger storm system off the Pacific
NW coast that moves east into the central/northern plains by 12Z/Tue
with increase WAA pattern ahead of this storm giving isolated
elevated convection westcentral/nw IL overnight Monday night.
Strong negative tilted upper level low moves toward the upper MS
river valley by sunset Tue and sweeps a cold front east across IL
later Tue afternoon and early Tue evening. Breezy south winds ahead
of this storm system brings milder highs in the low to mid 70s. Also
will see increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms during the
day Tue with likely pops from I-74 north by Tue afternoon while just
slight chances south of I-70 Tue afternoon/evening. SPC day 3
outlook has a slight risk across most of IN and central and
northern IL, including all but far sw CWA on Tue afternoon and
early Tue evening. Strong wind shear peaking around 50 knots and
MUCapes by Tue afternoon of 1500-2500 j/kg supports slight risk of
severe storms. Damaging wind gusts is main severe wx threat
though supercells with large hail and possible tornadoes also a
risk.
Extended models continue to show strong upper level low staying over
the western Great Lakes region Wed and Thu and will bring in cooler
temps but still above normal. Highs Wed around 60F northern CWA and
near 65F by Lawrenceville and most areas dry on Wed with breezy sw
winds. Have small chances of showers returning Wed night into Thu
over mainly northern areas and cooler highs Thu in the 50s.
The extended models not in good agreement with forecast end of this
week into next weekend and will use a blend. Still appears to be a
large upper level trof digging into the great plains late this
weekend and more unsettled weather returning to IL next weekend
starting Friday night and going through next Sunday. Temps to be
closer to normal next weekend with highs in the upper 40s/lower 50s
and a fair amount of cloud cover with the chances of rain showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
17z/12pm surface analysis shows a 1006mb low between KPIA and
KSPI. Winds to the east of the low are from the S/SW at most of
the central Illinois terminals early this afternoon, while winds
to the west of the low remain from the NE at KPIA. As the low
tracks into northern Illinois, a trailing trough axis will lead to
a very weak pressure gradient tonight, resulting in light/variable
winds through 18z Mon. Rain is currently falling across much of
the area: however, the rain area is rapidly lifting to the N/NW.
Based on radar timing tools, have ended predominant rain at
KSPI/KDEC/KCMI by 20z...then further northwest to KPIA by 23z.
Despite an end to the steady precip, IFR ceilings will continue
through the entire 18z TAF period. Due to very light winds and
ample low-level moisture, fog will re-develop tonight. Early
indications from the HRRR suggest it could become locally dense
after midnight. Have included a tempo group with visbys down to
1/2 miles at all sites between 08z and 12z accordingly.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1210 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
At 12z Sunday a 500mb low was located over southwest Oklahoma,
and a 700mb and 500mb deformation zone was located north northwest
of this upper low across western Kansas. The convection that
occurred earlier this morning was located east of this 700mb to
500mb deformation zone. Further west an upper level trough was
located just off the west coast with at +100 knot 250mb jet
positioned at the based of this upper trough.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
A deep, compact upper level cyclone was moving into the western
Texas Panhandle early this morning and should move across Oklahoma
into western Arkansas by evening. Temperatures are quite cold in
the center of the upper level cyclone with -25 C at H5 on the ABQ
sounding at 00Z. A cluster of thunderstorms east and north of the
upper level cold pool had propagated into the Oklahoma Panhandle
and western Oklahoma by 07Z, but convective elements were tending
to weaken as they moved away from the cold pool into more stable
air in Kansas. The northern part of the convective cluster
probably will skirt the southern border of Kansas, but the better
chance for significant precipitation will be farther south.
A weak upper level vorticity maximum developed in northwest
Kansas Saturday evening, and satellite imagery and radar suggested
the presence of a weak closed cyclone west of HLC at 07Z. This
upper level cyclone likely will move east during the day and
support an area of showers and thunderstorms across northern
Kansas. POPs in the grids will be modified to indicate higher
chances for measurable rain north and south of Dodge City with a
minimum along the Arkansas River Valley.
Weak upslope flow and nearly saturated air in the lower few
thousand feet of the atmosphere will support extensive stratus
tonight and Sunday morning. The HRR and RAP develop patchy dense
fog early this morning, but hydrolapses on model soundings are
more supportive of low clouds than dense fog. Some restriction in
visibilities can be expected toward sunrise, but it appears likely
that visibilities will remain above dense fog criteria.
A surface trough will propagate across western Kansas with the
upper level trough, and low level winds will become northwest
across all of western Kansas by mid afternoon. Drier air and
downslope flow will result in clearing skies and warm temperatures
this afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler in central Kansas
where cloudiness will be slower to clear out. Light winds and
mostly clear skies tonight will support good radiational cooling,
but the atmosphere is so warm that lows still will be well above
seasonal averages.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
An anomalously strong East Asian jet extending across the Pacific
is impinging on the northwestern United States, and a large area
of exceedingly cold air aloft is moving into the Pacific Northwest
early today. Pressures will fall in the lee of the Rockies Monday,
and a plume of very warm air will cover western Kansas with H8
temperatures above 20C from Dodge City west to Colorado. Highs
should rise into the 80s at most locations. As the Pacific
Northwest trough digs into the northern Plains Tuesday, a cold
front will move across Kansas Monday night. Strong northwest low
level winds and tanking dewpoints will result in very active fire
behavior Tuesday. Temperatures Tuesday will be about 15 degrees
lower than on Monday but still above seasonal averages. Strong
radiational cooling with very dry air will allow temperatures to
fall below freezing for the first time in several days Tuesday
night. Wednesday should be fairly quiet with an upper level
cyclone centered in the Great Lakes and nearly zonal flow aloft in
the Central Plains. Highs should be in the upper 50s and lower
60s.
Strong cyclogenesis off the coast of Asia Monday will start to
buckle the East Asian jet, and downstream cyclogenesis near 160W
on Wednesday will result in development of a sharp ridge in the
eastern Pacific. A deep upper level trough will dig into the
northern Rockies Thursday and move across the Central Plains
Friday and Saturday. Surface anticylogenesis in western Canada
downstream from the sharp upper level ridge in western Canada will
result in evolution of a cold air mass that will plunge into the
central part of the country Thursday night and Friday. Synoptic
scale details differ between the ECMWF and GFS, but the
operational runs of both models suggest that measurable snowfall
may occur in Kansas Friday and/or Saturday. Ensembles from the GFS
and GEM show quite a bit of spread, so details of the event are
uncertain. Regardless of the synoptic scale details, it is almost
certain that temperatures will be cold enough to damage any early
plant growth that has occurred in the extended period of anomalous
warmth in February and early March. Lows in the teens are very
possible if the sky clears over a snow pack. The cold period will
be short lived; zonal flow and much warmer temperatures will
return by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
Skies will clear from west to east this afternoon as an upper
level ridge axis begins to build into western Kansas. Winds today
will be northwest at around 10 knot. Tonight wind speeds will fall
back to less than 10 knots under mostly clear skies. A brief
period of MVFR cloud cover will be possible at DDC and HYS for the
next few hours. There even my be a brief shower around the HYS
terminal through 20z Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
Temperatures in the 80s and low dewpoints Monday will result in
relative humidities around 15 percent. Winds will be relatively
light, but deep mixing in the afternoon may result in gusts in
excess of 25 mph. Very active fire behavior can be expected. A
cold front will move through western Kansas Monday night, followed
by strong northwest winds and dewpoints in the teens on Tuesday.
Relative humidities likely will fall to near 15 percent Tuesday
afternoon, and a fire weather headline may be required.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 70 41 80 37 / 20 0 0 0
GCK 72 37 80 35 / 20 0 0 10
EHA 73 40 82 40 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 72 38 81 38 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 68 41 79 41 / 40 0 10 20
P28 67 44 81 44 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Ruthi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
357 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.DISCUSSION...
WHAT IS NOW THE PRIMARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT EMERGED OUT OF THE
EARLY WEEK TX/MEXICO UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM IS NOW LIFTING DUE
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF IL/IN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK DIRECTLY THROUGH WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING. WITH TIME...THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND THE RESULTANT
CHANGE IN KINEMATICS/WIND DIRECTION WILL FORCE A CHANGE IN THE
ADVECTIONS AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZE THE 850-700MB FGEN AXIS THAT HAD
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET DAY...TO THE NORTH OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME TO HAPPEN HOWEVER...AS THE
OVERALL EVENT IS A SLOW EVOLVING ONE. A SHARP NORTHERN CUTOFF TO THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY THE CENTER OF
THE PRECIPITATION AXIS TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AT 00Z...OVER THE
NORTHERN THUMB AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON AT 06Z...WITH THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE BAND EXITING THE CWA AT/AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING. RH
PROGS...SATELLITE TRENDS...UPSTREAM CEILIOMETER OBS...SUPPORT SOME
COMPONENT OF MIDLEVEL DRY AIR OR A MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT OF SORTS TO
BEGIN LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS
WOULD END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER...HOW
MUCH MIDLEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IS UP FOR DEBATE. PREFER A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION WHERE PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE STRIPPED OUT WITH
A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH TIME...HOWEVER...
FOR THOSE THAT REMAIN WITHIN THE HEART OF THE FGEN AXIS RATES WILL
BE SLOW TO WANE. IN THE EARLIER UPDATE...DISCUSSED HOW TOTAL
PRECIPITATION RAINFALL ESTIMATE WAS PROBABLY OVERDOING AMOUNTS.
WHILE TRUE ON THE FRONT END OF THE ENVIRONMENT WHERE DRY AIR WAS
FIGHTING OF PRECIPITATION...IT APPEARS THAT RATES ARE CERTAINLY
DOING WELL WITH COLUMN SATURATION. MANY AREAS IN THE DETROIT METRO
HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FOOTPRINT OF .25 TO .40 OF AN INCH. GIVEN THE
TIME YET TO GO AND THE BULLISH RAP QPF FIELD...TOTAL QPF IN EXCESS OF
.50 INCH...TO .75 INCH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
SOME VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING NAM AND HRRR ARE TRYING TO
PRESERVE SOME SPURIOUS AND ANOMALOUS QPF MAXIMUM ALONG THE LEADING
CVA OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THIS MODELED CONVECTION HAS BEEN
FORECASTED TO LIFT DIRECTLY NORTH OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
MBS...CONTAMINATING THE QPF FIELD. IT SEEMS THE CENTRAL INDIANA
CLUSTER WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SURVIVING WITH THE GENERAL LACK
OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECTING A
TRANSITION FROM LAMINAR STRATIFORM RAIN TO MORE RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING.
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO EXIST. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE STRENGTH OF
THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL EVOLVE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME DATA SETS
SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 6 TO 7 KNOTS OF SUSTAINED WIND HOLDING ON.
MODELED CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT FIELD POINT TO THIS DIRECTION
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONSENSUS OR CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO HEIGHTEN ANY
MESSAGE. FEELING IS IT COULD BE AS LATE AS 10Z BEFORE FOG
DEVELOPS...AND POSSIBLY TAKE UNTIL VERY LATE MORNING TO LIFT.
A WEAKNESS OR BUCKLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD DIRECTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND TROUGHINESS OVER THE STATE ON MONDAY. THE WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDING THROUGH THE CWA SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL AIRMASS. RH PROGS SHOW SOLID SATURATION HOLDING AT 700MB AND
THIS RAISES QUESTION AS TO THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON THE SHOULDERS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF A MORE
FOCUSED SURFACE REFLECTION/SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EFFECTS INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY...SLIGHTLY LESS
OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
50S TO 60 DEGREES FAR SOUTH. THE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD/FOG IN THE MORNING. IT COULD TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM APPRECIABLY.
THE MONDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD SEEMS IT WILL BE GOVERNED BY A COMPLEX
INTERACTION THAT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW
LIFTING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE MORE VIGOROUS LOW AFFECTION
PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS. THE NORTHERN SPIRAL EDGE TO THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO UNRAVEL AND BE CAUGHT WITHIN A TRAILING
DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS PRECEDING WAVE. ESSENTIALLY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL THEN ZIPPER ALONG THIS DEFORMATION AXIS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. BASED ON EARLIER DATA...SHADED DRY FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT MAY HAVE BEEN AN OVERCORRECTION AS SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST BEYOND 00Z TUESDAY.
THE COMPLEXITIES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY DYNAMIC SETUP. THE PROBLEM IS
THERE IS A MYRIAD OF PV INTERACTIONS YET TO OCCUR THAT WILL HAVE
A SAY IN THE FINAL OUTCOME. THE TREND FOR THE 13.12Z SUITE WAS TO
PUSH TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ON THE THETA E RIDGE
INTO THE 06-12Z WEDNESDAY WINDOW...WHILE WAITING ON THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. LATEST SWODY3 HAS A MARGINAL
DESIGNATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA CONDITIONAL ON
UPSTREAM...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. IT REMAINS A FLUID SITUATION BASED ON
DEPENDENCE OF TIMING AND ABILITY TO BECOME WELL MIXED AT THE
SURFACE...BUT THE POTENTIAL APPEARS GOOD FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TRANSPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
THAT THERMODYNAMICS AND VERY DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO
POSSIBLE WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER 50`S. A COOLING TREND
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
FRESH EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. WINDS WILL THEN WEAK DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY HAS A
WEAK AND VERY BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL RESPOND
TEMPORARILY OUT OF THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW
EXITING THE AREA...BEFORE QUICKLY ORGANIZING EASTERLY AGAIN AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO BE MUCH MORE DYNAMIC. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
YET...BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME VERY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF WEDNESDAY. POSTFRONTAL WESTERLY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY EXCEED 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ST CLAIR AND THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 146 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR AS AREA OF RAINFALL
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD...ON THE DOORSTEP OF FNT AT PRESS TIME
AND DUE INTO MBS BY 21Z. RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE METRO TERMINALS ARE
RESULTING IN BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VSBY AND A VFR CLOUD DECK WITH A
SCT-BKN IFR LAYER. WENT WITH A TEMPO FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS TO COVER
THIS VARIABILITY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT AFTER
23Z...SUPPORTED BY OBS OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. A PERIOD OF LIFR IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW VSBY
WILL DROP GIVEN THAT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT DROP OFF TOO MUCH /SAVE
FOR AT MBS WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVERHEAD/.
FOR DTW...PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VARIABLE CIGS/VSBY WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO IFR AFTER 23Z
THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF VLIFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LOW WIND SPEEDS WILL GET PRECLUDES DROPPING
VSBY BELOW 1/2 SM FOR THIS ISSUANCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT.
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AOB 200 FEET AND/OR VSBYS AOB 1/2SM TONIGHT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CB/DE
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....DT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
143 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC TO NW ONTARIO AND A TROUGH INTO THE SRN PLAINS
RESULTING IN SRLY THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE WRN LAKES. A WELL-
DEFINED SHRTWV OR CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WHILE
WEAKER UPSTREAM SHRTWVS OVER IA/IL SUPPORTED SHRA FROM SRN MN
THROUGH NE IA INTO NRN IL AND NRN INDIANA. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE FROM
NEAR JAMES BAY INTO THE NRN LAKES HAS MAINTAINED DRY LOW LEVEL ERLY
FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. HOWEVER...IR LOOP SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN ASOCIATED MOISTURE AXIS WITH
THE MORE FAVORABLE SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OVER
MN WHILE THE AREA OF PCPN EHAD OF A SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF THE MID MS
VALLEY WILL REMAIN TO THE S OF UPPER MI WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ANY PCPN INTO SRN CWA. EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS WILL
AGAIN REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S N
CNTRL...EAST AND ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MID 50S INLAND WEST.
TONIGHT...CONSISTENT WITH THE MODELS TRENDS...A SHRTWV LIFTING NNE
INTO LOWER MI IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN TO THE EAST
OF UPPER MI. ACCORDINGLY THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER THE SRN AND
ERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
...PATTERN TURNING COLDER WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MID
TO LATE WEEK...
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS VIGOROUS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TIED INTO THE UNRAVELING UPPER TROUGH HEADING TOWARD
OHIO VALLEY/LOWER AND UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. PARTS OF UPPER GREAT LAKES MAY GET CLIPPED
BY THE DECAYING SYSTEM...BUT MOST RAIN SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST OF
UPR MICHIGAN.
ATTN THIS WEEK TURNS TO STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET STREAM OVER 150
KTS PUSHING INTO WEST COAST.THIS MORNING. THIS JET WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND DIG STRONG TROUGH ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
CONUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY LATER TUE. JET WILL EXPAND
ACROSS OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST CONUS LATE THIS
WEEK...LEAVING WIDESPREAD TROUGHING FM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARMTH SEEN
OVER THE REGION ON SAT WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER PATTERN MID TO
LATE THIS WEEK...THOUGH MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN WARMER DAY ON TUE
AHEAD OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE. ONCE ESTABLISHED THE COLDER PATTERN
MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DEPART. AT THE LEAST WILL SEE TEMPS AT OR BLO
NORMAL...AND IF THE TROUGH CAN EXPAND DEPTH INTO NORTHERN CANADA
WOULD HAVE CHANCE AT SEEING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EARLY TO MID OF
NEXT WEEK AS RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE SHOWN WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPNIG TO
NEAR -20C. ECMWF IS NOT AS COLD BUT STILL SHOWS -10C TO -12C. PRECIP
IN THIS PATTERN SHIFT COULD BE ACTIVE...WHICH WOULD MEAN A RETURN TO
CHANCES OF SNOW. DOES NOT APPEAR WE ARE DONE WITH WINTRY TYPE
WEATHER YET.
MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL BE EAST OF CWA ON MON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
POSSIBLE DEVELOPING RAIN OVER MAINLY WEST CWA AS SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND TAIL END OF JET STREAK OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING. THIS FORCING DIMINISHES ON MON NIGHT SO
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS ATTM. LEAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH IS COMING ASHORE TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS FOR PACIFIC NW
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES OUT OVER NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH
SECONDARY LOW FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF BOTH THESE FEATURES
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CWA TUE. SEEMS THAT
THERE IS SLOWER TREND IN BRINGING THE MOISTURE AND RAIN IN THOUGH
SO INCREASED HIGHS WITH EXPECTATION THAT THERE MAY BE SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE FOR A WHILE.
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MOVES IN TUE NIGHT AS DOUBLE BARRELLED LOW
MOVES FM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO WISCONSIN BY WED MORNING. DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE LOW/S BOOSTED BY 925-950MB WINDS 40+ KTS COMBINED WITH
PWATS OVER 0.75 INCHES /AT LEAST 250 PCT OF NORMAL/ LEAD TO GOOD
CHANCE OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EVEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN. NAM SEEMS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF SHOWING OVER 1 INCH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. GFS MORE IN THE 0.5-0.75 INCH RANGE. SREF MEMBERS SHOW
DECENT SPREAD BUT ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS INSTEAD OF THE
WETTER NAM. COLD AIR SLOW TO MOVE IN WITH H85 TEMPS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES MARGINAL FOR MUCH SNOW MIXING IN UNTIL LATER WED MORNING
OR WED AFTN. WITH SFC LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION FM NORTHERN ONTARIO...KEWEENAW HIGHER TERRAIN SEEMS TO BE
BEST IN LINE FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT MANY HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF WEST AND NCNTRL CWA MAY SEE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ON WED AS WELL.
SFC-H85 LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEAKENS AS WED NIGHT INTO THU
AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TOWARD NORTHEAST CONUS. GRADUAL
COOLER AIR SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LINGERING
MOIST/CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDING DECAYING LOW-LEVEL LOW. H85 TEMPS OF
-4C TO -6C ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW OVER WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN
COULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS. REST OF EXTENDED...MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH INDIVIDUAL FEATURES. ECMWF SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LINGERING LATE THIS WEEK THEN RETROGRADING BACK TO WEST ONLY
TO BE SWEPT ALONG BY ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN CONUS. GFS
TAKES MAJORITY OF UPPER LOW ON TO THE EAST LATE THIS WEEK. GEM-NH
LINGERS THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ENTIRE TIME. OVERALL
LARGER SCALE MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST SO EXPECT TEMPS AT OR BLO
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. JUST NOT SURE ON ANY SYSTEMS WITHIN THIS
FLOW PATTERN. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH INDICATED LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO THE WEEKEND. PTYPE WILL BE SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
EXPECT OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOST UNCERTAIN WITH PRECIP
POTENTIAL AS ALL SITES WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF BETTER
PRECIP...SO JUST INCLUDED VCSH.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING WHERE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1221 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
VSBYS SLOWED IMPROVED THIS MORNING BUT CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA DEVELOPED IN THE AREA FROM AROUND HEBRON AND
BEATRICE TOWARD FREMONT...BUT AS OF NOON COVERAGE HAD DECREASED.
RECENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS OVER ABOUT THE SERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
CHANCES LOWER GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO WAYNE.
FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW AS MUCH INSTABILITY THIS AFTN...SO
BACKED OFF ON MENTION OF ISOLD THUNDER UNTIL LATE AFTN. TEMPS
SHOULD TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
AN INTENSE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
TODAY WITH A DOWNSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY
WHILE EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A SEPARATE POLAR-BRANCH AIR
STREAM WILL PERSIST FROM THE WEST COAST THROUGH N-CNTRL CONUS WITH
WEAK VORTICITY LOBES PRESENT BETWEEN THESE TWO CHANNELS OF HIGHER-
MOMENTUM FLOW...FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH
OUR AREA TONIGHT.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING OWING TO THE
SATURATED LOW-LEVEL WARM-ADVECTION REGIME PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE
OBSERVATIONS FOR THE NECESSITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY
TODAY. THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTANT DEEPENING/MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN THE FOG DISSIPATING BY MID-
MORNING WITH SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BREAKS ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE 60S. THIS WARMING AIR MASS COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 50S WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
MECHANISMS AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE CASTS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL. AS SUCH...WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS TODAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
SIMILAR POPS TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO THE
CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N-CNTRL
CONUS. WHILE SOME MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL EXIST MONDAY...A
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROMOTE WARMING OF
THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE: OMAHA/81...LINCOLN/82 AND NORFOLK/81. A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY TSTM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR WEST ALONG
THE SURFACE FRONT.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL COLD
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
WHICH COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY ACROSS OUR ERN COUNTIES. MODEST
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...IN THE 50S. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE EVOLVES OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH GENERALLY NWLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW RESIDING
ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK FROM WRN CANADIAN INTO THE NRN INTER-
MOUNTAIN REGION AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL DIG SEWD
INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PIECE
OF THE UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST RETROGRADING OR
REFORMING OVER THE DAKOTAS. BY NEXT WEEKEND...00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE CNTRL
U.S...THE DETAILS OF WHICH VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
THIS UPPER-AIR PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL PROMOTE THE SWD DEVELOPMENT
OF A SURFACE HIGH THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO NRN
HIGH PLAINS...USHERING IN A COLDER CONTINENTAL-POLAR AIR MASS
INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO SPECIFIC DETAILS
OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WE WILL INCLUDE LOW-
PROBABILITY PRECIPITATION CHANCES --INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW-- NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS AFTN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECREASING LOW LEVEL RH...SO IT SHOULD
TREND TOWARD VFR THIS EVENING. FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
SO DID INCLUDE SOME VSBY RESTRICTION TOWARD SUNRISE. HIGHEST FOG
POTENTIAL THOUGH WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF KOFK AND EAST OF KOMA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
131 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM MISSOURI EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REACH CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE
TONIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS OHIO
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR...HRRR
AND RAP WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FIELDS TO REFLECT
BANDS OF SHRA. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH. SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD START TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
STEADY RAIN BY MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS A LITTLE COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING THEN START TO TAPER OFF
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN
THE ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH KICKS OFF MORE SHOWERS IN THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. POPS ARE IN THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE
AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OHIO. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S EXCEPT UPPER 50S NW PA. QPF FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE NEAR 1 INCH FOR MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE RAINFALL IS
STILL EXPECTED TO CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH ONLY A COUPLE
APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE...OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF
FLOODING PROBLEMS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
WATCH IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
AS A STRONG PACIFIC JET RACES EASTWARD. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL
CURL NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
TRENDED TEMPERATURES UP ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND SUSPECT THEY WILL BE
RATHER WARM IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. VERY DRY AIR WRAPS
IN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
MIXING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THEY STRUGGLE WITH HOW
TO HANDLE THE WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COVERAGE DECREASING INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS NO CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS FOR SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO LITTLE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THERE
IS A 24 HOUR TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP TODAY WITH MOST AREAS STILL
VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ON THE RADAR AND WILL CONTINUE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. IFR CIGS ARE JUST SW OF THE AREA AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER IL
HEADS NE. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A 6 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW OF
IFR CIGS AND WILL GO WITH THAT PREMISE EXCEPT AT KERI AND KCLE
WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL KEEPS CIGS A TAD HIGHER. WILL TRY TO
END THE PRECIP FROM S TO N LATER THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. E FLOW WILL BECOME SE BY 00Z
AND THEN SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SE WINDS AT KERI COULD GET GUSTY FOR A
FEW HOURS TONIGHT GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE. GIVEN WHAT HAS HAPPENED SO
FAR TODAY CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AS FAR AS THE TIMING OF THE IFR
CIGS GO.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS OF THIS SPEED COMBINED
WITH A LONGER FETCH MAY BUILD WAVES CLOSE TO THE 4 FOOT THRESHOLD
FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL
DECREASE INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT ENOUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE BOUNDARY. THE LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST ON TUESDAY FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE. SO EXPECT TO SEE ONSHORE
FLOW IN THIS REGION ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY. SPEEDS OF
10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS/WX FOR CONTINUING THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARD...
WHILE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW... WEAKER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY HAVE GIVEN WAY TO MORE BROKEN SHOWERS...
WITH POCKETS OF THUNDER AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. WITH THE LINE
SLOWING... STILL HAVE SOME MINOR CONCERNS FOR RISES ON CREEKS AND
STREAMS... RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED AREAS IN DEWEY
AND BLAINE COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED NEAR 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
THE LOW CHURNING ACROSS TEXOMA PRESENTLY IS IMPRESSIVE... VERY
COMPACT AND WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SAT. EXPECT
RAIN AND THUNDER TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW
CENTER AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE... INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IN EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR DUE TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. LAST FEW FRAMES OF
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW SOME BROKEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS
REGION. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR...13/15Z... HINTS AT SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION THROUGH 18 TO 19Z NEAR ADA AND LOCATIONS TO THE EAST.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GET A FEW
UPDRAFTS GOING... ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST.
COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ANYWHERE FROM NORTH OF DURANT TO
ADA AND INTO SOUTHERN SEMINOLE COUNTY. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM
ARDMORE HINT SMALL HAIL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE... UP TO HALF INCH
IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER... THE OVERALL BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/
AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW THIS MORNING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO AROUND 1 MILE. RAIN-
COOLED AIR MAY ALSO RESULT IN IFR CEILINGS. BY 18Z...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND STORMS WILL BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/
DISCUSSION...
STRONG MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SUPPER
ONGOING MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS NW OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHCS REMAINING ALONG AND NORTH OF I40. MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO, WITH THE NAM12
INSTABILITY AXIS APPEARING VERY ACCURATE. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS MORNING, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN OKC METRO.
AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHCS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF OK NW OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THERE. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SOUTH OF THE LOW AND ALONG/EAST
OF I35. ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SMALL AREA,
BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE IF DOWNWARD VISBY TRENDS CONTINUE. THE LOW
WILL EXIT OUR REGION AROUND 21Z, WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND IT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MON
AM, BUT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO ALONG AND EAST OF I35 WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THANKS TO WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF A SFC TROUGH.
IT STILL APPEARS VERY WARM MONDAY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS IN
COMBINATION WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX WHERE SOME
LOCATIONS WILL REACH 90 DEGREES UNDER. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SW OK
AND WESTERN N TX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH KEEPING FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT NEAR CRITICAL SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT NEEDED
FOR THE TIME BEING. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH TUE AM, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY MANAGE TO KNOCK TEMPS BACK INTO THE
60S AND 70S TUE AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL AGAIN
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN, WESTERN, AND SW OK, AND WESTERN N TX.
THE GENERAL TREND WED-THU WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER WITH AN
ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BY WED AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITHIN BROAD, DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS, DIGS DOWN THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS A BIT QUESTIONABLE, HOWEVER. RAIN CHCS
WILL INCREASE FRI THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS WAVE WILL MAKE IT, BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE
COLDER. SOME SNOWFALL EVEN APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER NW OK.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 47 83 53 / 50 0 0 0
HOBART OK 69 46 86 51 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 48 88 53 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 68 41 83 47 / 60 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 64 45 82 50 / 60 0 0 0
DURANT OK 72 51 82 57 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
603 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH AERIAL COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS APPEAR LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILDER
RELATIVE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MOIST PLUME OF 1.0"+ PW ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL PA BUT ENCOUNTERING
DRY AIR EAST AND OF H5 RIDGE AXIS. STEADY BUT LIGHT RAINFALL
ACCOMPANIES PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CHANNELS TO THE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH 20+ MPH GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHERN POCONOS INTO THE LWR
SUSQ VALLEY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY RANGE
FROM 0.10-0.25 INCH OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER TO 0.50-1.00 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE LWR SUSQ. VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT SUN MARCH 13 2016
HIRES MODEL/NCAR EFS LIFTED INDEX SHOWS STRONG CAD SIGNATURE WITH
COOL/STABLE AIRMASS LOCKED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES. EXPECT STEADIER RAINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE OCNL
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. 13/12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF MON NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEAN
QPF PLACES CENTRAL PA IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM WITH 24HR TOTALS LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH ENDING 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE PULLING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY...AFTER WHICH THE PATTERN BECOMES COMPLICATED AND
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO ARISE.
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SOME ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATER TUESDAY. BOTH THE GEFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A
REX BLOCK BY WED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS/WRN
GLAKES AND THE HIGH JUST SOUTH OF HUDSONS BAY.
THERE IS PRETTY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN A COOLER END OF THE
WEEK. THE QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING OF DISTURBANCES RIPPLING
UNDER THE GR LAKES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL BRING
DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY IN
THE FORM OF OCNL RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS. RAIN ALREADY FALLING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AS OF 21Z...BUT DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS KEPT CONDS MAINLY VFR. ALL MDL GUIDANCE INDICATING
GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT...AS RAIN MOISTENS THE LOW
LVLS. LATEST SREF PROBS AND HRRR SUPPORT IFR CIGS AT KJST/KAOO BY
LATER THIS EVENING. THE IFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY TO SPREAD TO KUNV
AND PERHAPS KBFD/KMDT/KLNS BY DAWN MONDAY. THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN
MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS NORTHEAST PA...WHERE KIPT IS LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS LATER TONIGHT.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR APPEARS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF MAINE LOCKS IN COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR LONG DURATION SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
MON-TUE...MVFR-IFR WITH OCNL LGT RAIN/DZ/FOG.
WED...IMPROVING CIGS/VIS. CHC P.M RAIN SHOWERS. FROPA.
THU...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOW RISK FOR SUB-VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
545 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH AERIAL COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS APPEAR LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILDER
RELATIVE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT SUN MARCH 13 2016
ABOVE NORMAL PW ALONG WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF A Q-STATIONARY/WARM
FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY AIR
ENTRENCHED IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVERCOME WITH
LIGHT RAIN REACHING NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT. COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CHANNELS TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH 20+ MPH GUSTS
FROM THE SOUTHERN POCONOS INTO THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY RANGE FROM 0.10-0.25 INCH OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN TIER TO 0.50-1.00 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
RIDGES INTO THE LWR SUSQ. VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT SUN MARCH 13 2016
HIRES MODEL/NCAR EFS LIFTED INDEX SHOWS STRONG CAD SIGNATURE WITH
COOL/STABLE AIRMASS LOCKED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES. EXPECT STEADIER RAINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE OCNL
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. 13/12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF MON NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEAN
QPF PLACES CENTRAL PA IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM WITH 24HR TOTALS LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH ENDING 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE PULLING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY...AFTER WHICH THE PATTERN BECOMES COMPLICATED AND
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO ARISE.
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SOME ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATER TUESDAY. BOTH THE GEFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A
REX BLOCK BY WED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS/WRN
GLAKES AND THE HIGH JUST SOUTH OF HUDSONS BAY.
THERE IS PRETTY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN A COOLER END OF THE
WEEK. THE QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING OF DISTURBANCES RIPPLING
UNDER THE GR LAKES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL BRING
DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY IN
THE FORM OF OCNL RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS. RAIN ALREADY FALLING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AS OF 21Z...BUT DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS KEPT CONDS MAINLY VFR. ALL MDL GUIDANCE INDICATING
GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT...AS RAIN MOISTENS THE LOW
LVLS. LATEST SREF PROBS AND HRRR SUPPORT IFR CIGS AT KJST/KAOO BY
LATER THIS EVENING. THE IFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY TO SPREAD TO KUNV
AND PERHAPS KBFD/KMDT/KLNS BY DAWN MONDAY. THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN
MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS NORTHEAST PA...WHERE KIPT IS LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS LATER TONIGHT.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR APPEARS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF MAINE LOCKS IN COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR LONG DURATION SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
MON-TUE...MVFR-IFR WITH OCNL LGT RAIN/DZ/FOG.
WED...IMPROVING CIGS/VIS. CHC P.M RAIN SHOWERS. FROPA.
THU...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOW RISK FOR SUB-VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
149 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
EAST TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY MORNING THE
LOW WILL BE ENTERING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING A COVERAGE OF LIKELY POPS...I.E
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. UPPED TEMPS IN FAR SE AS
SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE...AND TEMPS AT DANVILLE ALREADY IN
THE LOWER 70S.
PREVIOUS MID MORNING DISCUSSION....
EXPECT A SLOWER SOLUTION TO RAINFALL MOVING IN THIS MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS SOME 35 TO 40 DBZ REFLECTIVITY OVER THE NC MTNS AS OF
1320Z/0920 EDT. ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING TO LINE UP WITH RADAR AND
FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE 00Z HIRESW-ARW. STILL LOOKS LIKE MORE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER LOOKS SOLID SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH BREAKS. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND MORNING SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE TEMPS NEED TO GET INTO THE MID 70S FOR THUNDER.
STILL ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA.
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING TO NARROW DOWN MOST FAVORED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO MULTIPLE FACTORS THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE
LOCATION OF BEST LIFT. STARTING OFF WITH SOME DRY AIR AT MID
LEVELS BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 1.5 INCHES IN THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA. MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BUT WEAKER PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.
AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. BY THE END OF THE DAY THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RADAR SHOWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. HRRR...LOCAL
WRF AND RAP GUIDANCE...AMONG OTHER EACH HAD SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. OVERALL CONSENSUS WAS TO
BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 15Z/11AM AND 03Z/11PM. HAVE INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT STILL KEPT
LOWER CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS
MORNING WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED ONE BAND OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
ENOUGH CLEARING TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY...THEN ANOTHER BATCH
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE ID
HIGHER FOR THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WHEREVER THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT TODAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE. SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES
WILL SPIKE UP.
BY LATE TONIGHT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WARM FRONT
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IN RESPONSE THE WINDS IN THE
NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA TO THE NORTHEAST AND RELATIVELY
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR GETS PUSHED INTO THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT...EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS 460 CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE.
HAVE MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH. BUFKIT SUGGESTS VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR AND THE NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ADVANCE
ALL THE WAY INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS SHOULD PUSH OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY
MORNING. LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN AS A COOL POOL OF AIR ALOFT
ARRIVES FROM A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EAST FROM TENNESSEE. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR TO ALLOW ENOUGH
SURFACE HEATING THAT WILL BRING CAPE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A DECENT INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY ALSO ALIGN ALONG
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. SPC STILL
ADVERTISES A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOCATIONS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE MOST FAVORABLE...BUT THE BEST SYNOPTIC
LIFT DOES NOT COME UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING. THIS MISALIGNMENT
WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED. ELSEWHERE...LOWER CAPE
AMOUNTS ARE PROJECTED NEAR LYNCHBURG AND BUCKINGHAM DUE TO
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...SO THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF THUNDER.
ONCE THE CONVECTION EXITS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REMAINING RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THAT MOISTURE SHOULD FADE DURING THE DAY AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND
SKIES CLEAR TO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO REACH WELL INTO
THE 60S AND 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE PROMINENT DURING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH COULD SPREAD A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WATAUGA THROUGH GREENBRIER COUNTIES.
SO...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE PLACED IN THIS AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO
THE 70S...WITH EVEN LOWER 80S POSSIBLE AT DANVILLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS FOR
MID WEEK WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A DEEP VORTEX NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THURSDAY....WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAKING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
THURSDAY MAY CAUSE FLOW TO AMPLIFY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SFC LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. STILL TO EARLY TO TELL WHERE THIS
FEATURE MAY TRACK...BUT IT DOES SUGGEST NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE CLOUDY
AND WET FOR THE MID ATLANTIC.
ABOVE SEASONAL WARMTH WILL PEAK MID WEEK PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN BRING MUCH COOLER
WEATHER TO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO UNDER VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACT TO MOISTEN THE LOW LVLS. AT
TIMES...VSBYS MAY SINK TO MVFR/IFR WITH MODERATE SHOWERS.
FOLLOWED THE RAP/NAM AND SREF SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND DRYING OUT BY MIDNIGHT. THESE
MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING A WEAK WEDGE AND STRATUS/FOG ISSUES
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. QUESTION IS HOW LOW WILL STRATUS GET VS
FOG DENSITY. PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE THOUGH WILL MAKE MOST SITES
IFR WITH SUB 1KFT CIGS.
THE QUESTION THEN IS HOW FAST WILL THIS LOW LVL MOISTURE SCOUR OUT
MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE THE SW BLF/BCB POTENTIALLY GOING VFR BY
18Z...WITH THE REST OF THE CWA STAYING MVFR.
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN CIG/VSBY IFR VS MVFR MAINLY AFTER 23Z
TODAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BUT HIGH IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION. AFTER INTERVALS
OF VFR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/RAINFALL. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE FAVORABLE
FOR HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BLF-BCB-LYH LINE.
TUESDAY WILL FIND US BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF MVFR
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR POST FRONTAL THURSDAY EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR
POSSIBLE KLWB/KBLF...WITH FRIDAY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
910 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS STORM WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH RAIN IN THE
LOWLANDS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. COOL MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS MONDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WILL BRING DRY MILD WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE STORM IS MOVING FASTER THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
BUOY 89 WEST OF THE N OREGON COAST WAS DOWN TO 983 MB AT 15Z...A
LITTLE DEEPER THAN FORECAST. HOWEVER THE MOST IMPORTANT CHANGE IS
THAT THE LOW IS MOVING FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE NOW EXPECTED 2-3 HOURS SOONER. THE HIGH WIND WARNING STATEMENT
HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH THIS CHANGE.
RECENT HOURLY HRRR RUNS AS WELL SOME OF THE EARLIER 00Z AND 06Z
MODELS ALSO TRACK THE LOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NW...MORE OVER THE
NW OLYMPICS. THE MODELS ARE ALSO RUNNING SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON THE
WINDS. 925 MB WINDS ARE CLOSER TO 50 KT WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL
STILL BE IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOONER AS WELL
WITH WINDS EASING SLOWLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
OTHERWISE THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. SIGNIFICANT...WARNING
LEVEL...SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED OVER MOUNT BAKER AND MOUNT RAINIER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOWER ADVISORY LEVEL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER SNOQUALMIE AND STEVENS PASS. KAM
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION FROM THE 301 AM AFD...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TONIGHT...WITH MOIST WESTERLY FLOW AT
LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH.
RAINFALL IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH...WITH 0.50 TO 1.25 INCH AT THE COAST. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 2500 TO 3500 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND FALL TO
2000 FT MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. UP TO 2.5 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS AROUND MOUNT BAKER AND MOUNT RAINIER. A WINTER STORM WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON MONDAY FOR THE
CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES AND THE CASCADES OF PIERCE
AND LEWIS COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START BUILDING WELL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...BUT
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH
MAYBE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A
RATHER SHOWERY DAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL STILL BE 2000 TO 2500 FT. MCDONNAL
.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE ALONG 135W ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND THE AIR MASS GRADUALLY DRYING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH SOME
SUNSHINE. MCDONNAL
&&
.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER WA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT. AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS NW WA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WIND OF GUSTS 40-70 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. AIR MASS STABLE
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE THIS MORNING. AIR MASS BECOMING UNSTABLE
AFTER 20Z.
RAIN SPREADING INLAND THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR
MOST AREAS. RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS IN
THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS REMAINING MVFR...LIKELY BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER BEYOND SHOWERS. EXPECT A LOT OF MECHANICAL TURBC ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG WINDS. NOT A GOOD DAY FOR FLYING...TIE AIRCRAFT DOWN
OR SHELTER IN A HANGER IF POSSIBLE.
KSEA...VFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO MVFR BEFORE 18Z IN RAIN.
SE WIND 8-14 KT THIS MORNING PICKING UP MIDDAY AND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 KT OR SO. BUEHNER
&&
.MARINE...A 985 MB SURFACE LOW AT 15Z THIS MORNING 150 NM OFF
CASCADE HEAD IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE AND CROSS THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA
AS A 978 MB LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STORM
FORCE WINDS TO MOST COASTAL WATERS...IF NOT WITH THE PRE-LOW
SOUTHEASTERLIES...THEN WITH THE POST-LOW WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLIES. A
GOOD DAY TO STAY IN PORT AND SECURELY TIE YOUR BOAT DOWN.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 20 TO 24 FT TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS AROUND
GRAYS HARBOR. SOME BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHER PRES IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
THURSDAY. BUEHNER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL PROBABLY FLOOD AGAIN
TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MASON COUNTY.
OTHERWISE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON AREA RIVERS FOR THE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-CENTRAL COAST-
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-EVERETT AND VICINITY-HOOD CANAL
AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-NORTH COAST-SEATTLE AND
VICINITY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-EVERETT AND
VICINITY-HOOD CANAL AREA-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CASCADES OF
PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PDT MONDAY FOR
CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM
AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PDT MONDAY FOR
CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES.
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR HOOD
CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS.
HIGH WIND WARNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN
SKAGIT COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
COAST.
HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY FOR THE EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
STORM WARNING COAST AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
STORM WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
...ADMIRALTY INLET-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
&&
$$
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