Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/12/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
913 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
...WARM TEMPS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS...
.UPDATE...A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AXIS WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS N-CENTRAL FL. LOW STRATUS AND SEA FOG FORMED OVER OUR ZONES
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND GRADUAL EROSION CONTINUED THIS HOUR WITH
LOW STRATUS HUGGING MAINLY COASTAL AREAS. HRRR INITIALED WELL AND
INDICATED THE LOW BANK DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS A FEW SHOWERS WERE
POPPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE CAPE AND INLAND EAST
OF TBW. AS THIS CONVERGENCE LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE
AFTN...ANTICIPATE A FEW SHOWERS POPPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NE
FL AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM THE
SEA BREEZES. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SHALLOW AND ISOLATED IN NATURE
GIVEN STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z N FL
RAOBS. TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID
70S COAST PER THE SEA BREEZE.
&&
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING TO VFR INLAND WITH LOW
STRATUS SKIRTING OVER COASTAL COUNTIES BRINGING LIFR TO IFR CIGS.
ANTICIPATE GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR INLAND BY MIDDAY
WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SGJ AND SSI DUE TO LOW
STRATUS OFFSHORE. LOW CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY INLAND NEAR GNV AND VQQ...BUT PROBABILITY
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY.
COMBINED SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 85 64 80 58 / 10 20 60 20
SSI 74 62 74 62 / 10 10 50 30
JAX 81 63 81 61 / 20 20 60 30
SGJ 77 64 77 63 / 10 20 60 40
GNV 82 63 79 61 / 20 20 50 40
OCF 83 63 81 62 / 20 10 60 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ALLEN/COMBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1250 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016/
.UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS GIVEN AREAS
OF CLOUD COVERAGE IN CENTRAL GA...MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY
POPS INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PRECIP IS HAVING A HARD
TIME PROPAGATING NEWD. SEVERAL FACTORS SEEM TO BE WORKING AGAINST
US SEEING AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING POTENTIAL UPSTREAM
GULF CONVECTION CUTTING OFF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE UPPER VORT
MAX BEING THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA
NEAR 06Z TONIGHT...UNLESS WEAK AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT CAN INITIATE ANYTHING. CAPE IS MEAGER AT
BEST BY LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN DECENT 700MB CAP IN MORNING SOUNDING
AND RAP TRENDS. DELAYED ANY SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCE TO NW AFTER 21Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PERSISTENT...DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH
TEXAS FINALLY GETS SHUNTED NORTHEAST TODAY AS A COMPACT BUT FAIRLY
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. INITIAL UPPER LOW
SWEEPS THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...HOWEVER I HAVE KEPT POPS LIMITED TO LIKELY AT BEST AFTER
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA QUICKLY AND
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER
LIMITED CAPE AND WEAK DYNAMICS SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. QPF VALUES DO NOT INDICATE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
20
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTH TX UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE TN
AND OH VALLEY VICINITY BY MONDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PULLING IT
A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE BEST COMPROMISE WOULD SEEM TO CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NORTH HALF OF GA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS
AGREE THAT TUESDAY LOOKS DRY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE NOT AS
CLEAR CUT...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSING
THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND CENTRAL FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DRY BUT A SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO
THE OH VALLEY COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
EXTREME NORTH. ECMWF INCREASES MOISTURE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND EASTWARD FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER. TO
COMPROMISE...CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR FRIDAY.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS AND
POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR VSBY REDUCTION AS DISTURBANCE BRINGS
-SHRA ACROSS SITES...GREATEST CHANCE AFTER 04-08Z THEN LINGERING
INTO SUNDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA SUNDAY MORNING SO INCLUDED
PROB30 FOR 09-15Z PERIOD NEAR KATL AND SLIGHTLY SHIFTED HOURS FOR
OTHER SITES. MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE SUNDAY GIVEN
HOW PRECIP TRENDS. WINDS GENERALLY SE UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT THEN SWING SW AFTER ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON PRECIP TIMING AND CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 79 61 73 55 / 20 60 60 20
ATLANTA 77 61 74 57 / 30 70 60 5
BLAIRSVILLE 73 58 68 51 / 40 70 60 20
CARTERSVILLE 76 60 75 55 / 40 80 60 10
COLUMBUS 78 62 78 57 / 30 70 60 10
GAINESVILLE 77 60 71 55 / 30 60 60 20
MACON 81 62 78 57 / 10 60 60 5
ROME 75 59 75 55 / 50 80 60 20
PEACHTREE CITY 77 60 76 54 / 30 70 60 5
VIDALIA 84 64 77 60 / 5 40 60 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS GIVEN AREAS
OF CLOUD COVERAGE IN CENTRAL GA...MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY
POPS INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PRECIP IS HAVING A HARD
TIME PROPAGATING NEWD. SEVERAL FACTORS SEEM TO BE WORKING AGAINST
US SEEING AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING POTENTIAL UPSTREAM
GULF CONVECTION CUTTING OFF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE UPPER VORT
MAX BEING THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA
NEAR 06Z TONIGHT...UNLESS WEAK AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT CAN INITIATE ANYTHING. CAPE IS MEAGER AT
BEST BY LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN DECENT 700MB CAP IN MORNING SOUNDING
AND RAP TRENDS. DELAYED ANY SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCE TO NW AFTER 21Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PERSISTENT...DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH
TEXAS FINALLY GETS SHUNTED NORTHEAST TODAY AS A COMPACT BUT FAIRLY
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. INITIAL UPPER LOW
SWEEPS THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...HOWEVER I HAVE KEPT POPS LIMITED TO LIKELY AT BEST AFTER
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA QUICKLY AND
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER
LIMITED CAPE AND WEAK DYNAMICS SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. QPF VALUES DO NOT INDICATE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
20
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTH TX UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE TN
AND OH VALLEY VICINITY BY MONDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PULLING IT
A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE BEST COMPROMISE WOULD SEEM TO CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NORTH HALF OF GA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS
AGREE THAT TUESDAY LOOKS DRY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE NOT AS
CLEAR CUT...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSING
THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND CENTRAL FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DRY BUT A SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO
THE OH VALLEY COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
EXTREME NORTH. ECMWF INCREASES MOISTURE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND EASTWARD FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER. TO
COMPROMISE...CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR FRIDAY.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 04Z. LOCAL TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER ONLY BRIEF IMPACTS POSSIBLE
AT MAINLY THE KAHN...KMCN...KCSG TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF AREA BY 18-
22Z...SPREADING EAST AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL SEE MVFR OR
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z IN AREAS OF
PERSISTENT RAIN. WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...BUT
SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 3-8KT THROUGH 12Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CEILINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 79 61 73 55 / 20 60 60 20
ATLANTA 77 61 74 57 / 30 70 60 5
BLAIRSVILLE 73 58 68 51 / 40 70 60 20
CARTERSVILLE 76 60 75 55 / 40 80 60 10
COLUMBUS 78 62 78 57 / 30 70 60 10
GAINESVILLE 77 60 71 55 / 30 60 60 20
MACON 81 62 78 57 / 10 60 60 5
ROME 75 59 75 55 / 50 80 60 20
PEACHTREE CITY 77 60 76 54 / 30 70 60 5
VIDALIA 84 64 77 60 / 5 40 60 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
159 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE AREA
TODAY THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE MOIST FLOW OVER THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. THE HRRR SHOWS REDUCED VISIBILITIES MOVING FROM THE
COASTAL PLAN INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS FROM 09 Z TO 15 Z.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR...AFTERNOON
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MIDDLE 80S.
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DON`T FORGET TO SET YOUR CLOCKS
AHEAD AS WE SPRING FORWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER
LOW THATS BEEN SPINNING OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TO FINALLY EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT EAST OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS REMAINING
IN THE 60S.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING WEST OF THE AREA...AND THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. MINIMAL INSTABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH
THE DAY. AREA SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WOULD
EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAT PREVIOUS
DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECONDARY TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME MOISTURE COMING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THIS LOW...AND WITH IT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE THIS LOW PUSHES EAST
LATE MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS A DEEPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SETUP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE 09Z-14Z.
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SO HAVE
REMAINED WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR OGB...AS WELL AS FOG PRONE
AGS...WITH MVFR AT CAE/CUB/DNL. THREAT FOR LIFR TO IFR AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ATTM GIVEN MODEL BIAS PAST FEW DAYS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
306 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...
231 PM CST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST IS ON PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AS RAIN EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE CWA OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. FARTHER
SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST...AND IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO
REGION OF WEAK PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE/OLD CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WHICH IS BEING KICKED OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST BY ANOTHER STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS IL/IN SUNDAY...WITH PRECIP
POTENTIAL RAMPING UP ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND INCREASES MOIST ASCENT ACROSS LOW LEVEL WARM
FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. IN FACT A WEAKER LEAD SHORT WAVE
WAS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MO/EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON IN A
REGION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
300-305 K THETA SURFACES. AMDAR AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS DEPICT
LOW LEVELS BELOW 500-600 MB ARE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
IL...AND WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN AND SATURATE MORE
FULLY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL INTO THIS EVENING. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH-NORTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES.
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE CWA GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS THE GREATEST
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
EVENING WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE.
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AGAIN GIVEN ALIGNMENT OF FORCING FEATURES
AND PWATS OF 1+ INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90 PERCENTILE BASED
ON ILX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID-MARCH. DEEP MOIST-ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES ALSO APPEAR TO YIELD SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TIER OR SO OF CWA COUNTIES
FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPS REACHED THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHGAN THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE CLIMB SOMEWHAT. CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL DEW POINT TEMPS SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 40S MOST AREAS AND AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH...AND
DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...PURE ADVECTION
OF WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMP AGAIN IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S SOUTH. INCREASING EAST WINDS (10-20 MPH) WILL COMBINE
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO KEEP THINGS COOLER NORTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WAVE AND BAROCLINIC REGION...WITH TEMPS FROM THE MID
40S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE LOWER 50S FARTHER INLAND IN LINE
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
303 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WITH RETURNING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIME.
A WET START TO THE PERIOD IS STILL APPEARING LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT.
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSING THIS FLOW
ALONG WITH SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE REFLECTION LOOK TO STILL PROVIDE
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. DID MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR
THE AREA IN THE EVENING BUT SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEPART TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IN THE EVENING
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT LOCATION WILL STILL LIKELY BE
IN AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR. SO HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY FOR THE INDIANA COUNTIES
SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER. ANY THUNDER CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND WEAKENING
FORCING. CONTINUE THE LOWERING TREND WITH POPS ON MONDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM FURTHER DEPARTS. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND FORCING ALONG DEPARTING BOUNDARY. DO LEAVE SOME CHANCE
POPS IN THE MORNING BUT GO MAINLY DRY IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A PORTION OF THE
EVENING ON MONDAY...DO BRING BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THEN CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. APPROACHING
SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW BACKING LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE DURING THIS NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...WAA
LOOKS TO RAMP UP WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS WAA AXIS. GUIDANCE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD...AND SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER GIVEN THIS SIGNAL AND PATTERN.
MORNING GUIDANCE COMING IN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ONE ANOTHER ON
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WHILE UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OF AT LEAST 120KT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. MID
LEVEL FLOW/ENERGY IS ALSO APPEARING RATHER ROBUST WITH MID LEVEL
FLOW OF AROUND 100KT BECOMING POSSIBLE...AND WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A STOUT VORT MAX TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GROWING MORE CONCERNED FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY AS A WARM/MOIST ENVIRONMENT ADVECTS NORTH OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO MOISTURE RETURN...MODEL CONSENSUS IS
STILL INDICATING MODEST MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
WITH SOME PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATING A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. IN THIS SCENARIO...INSTABILITY
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY INCREASING.
HOWEVER...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS SOLUTION QUITE YET AND HAVE
GONE WITH MORE OF A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH. EVEN IN THIS
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...THIS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN COULD STILL
YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY IN UPWARDS OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THIS
HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND EXPECTED STRONG KINEMATIC FIELD...EVEN
THIS POSSIBLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF THESE FEATURES COULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO GATHER ANY STRONG CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY
HOW TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD. HOWEVER...THIS PERIOD WARRANTS CLOSE
MONITORING FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
MAIN TAF CONCERNS ARE DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY RAIN/SHOWERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND EXPECTED DETERIORATION TO IFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS WEST-EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
IL LATE THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY 5 KT OR
LESS. LAKE BREEZE PUSH MAY BE FAIRLY WEAK THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...THOUGH SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD
BECOME EAST AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL IL
WAS FALLING FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUD BASES...AND IS EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE AS IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS LESS FAVORABLE FORCING ALOFT AND DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR. SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON ON...THOUGH EXPECT THAT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL MAKE
FOR MINIMAL/NO IMPACTS. HAVE INDICATED VCSH LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND AT TIMES BUT WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AFFECTING TERMINALS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DURATION. FORCING INCREASES LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
EVENTUALLY SATURATES THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH RAIN
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD 12-15Z SUNDAY MORNING. COOL EASTERLY
FLOW AND SATURATING LOW LEVELS SUGGEST DETERIORATION TO IFR...WITH
GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING CEILINGS BELOW
1000 FT BY MIDDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE MIXING
WILL BE SHALLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT WINDS 11-13 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT WITH SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING INTO EAST CENTRAL IL.
CONFIDENCE GENERALLY HIGH WITH WIND TRENDS AND SHRA SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SHRA COVERAGE
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THOUGH HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
252 PM CST
FEW CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE CENTRAL/LOWER GREAT LAKES.
MODEST EAST WINDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WAS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...AND EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE A BIT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE LAKE AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO IL/IN BY EVENING. IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME THAT THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL THEN SLACKEN AGAIN INTO MONDAY
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEAK LOW.
A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL BEING WATCHED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH FORECAST MODELS STILL DEVELOPING A DEEP
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES OR UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY AND MOVING THE LOW ACROSS THE LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WOULD STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS/GALES BY WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS STILL AMPLE SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER... MAKING CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE WIND FIELD
FAIRLY LOW.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
304 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
20z/2pm water vapor imagery shows closed upper low lifting into
southwest Arkansas, while lead short-wave trough ripples across
central Illinois. The initial wave has brought plenty of clouds,
but very little rain to the KILX CWA this afternoon. LAPS soundings
reveal the atmosphere has moistened considerably from the top-down
since the 12z upper air sounding: however, a substantial dry layer
remains in place below 800mb. As the Arkansas low gets ejected
further northeast, increasing synoptic lift will allow showers to
develop and eventually saturate the dry low-layer. This process
will likely be quite slow, as the strongest forcing will not arrive
across the area until late this evening into the overnight hours.
Have therefore decreased PoPs early on, with mainly chance during
the evening hours. As the wave approaches and the profile fully
saturates, widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will
overspread the entire area after midnight. Have gone with
categorical PoPs at that time. Low temperatures will mainly be in
the upper 40s and lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
The upper wave that was stalled out in Mexico for several days
this past week will finally approach our area in a weakening state
on Sunday with surface low pressure expected to move into central
Illinois. The best lift forecast to push right across central
Illinois during the morning into the early afternoon hours so that
is when shower and isolated thunder chances will be at their
highest. With the weak surface low expected to push across the
central portion of the forecast area, it appears their will be a
wide variation in temperatures with the cooler upper 50s thanks to
the rain and an easterly flow over our northern counties, while
south of the surface low, we will see a break or two in the rain
with temps forecast to push into the mid to upper 60s, especially
across southeast Illinois.
The weak upper and surface waves will shift off to our east during
the evening with the next 500 mb shortwave forecast to track across
the Southern Plains and affect areas over southeast Illinois with
better rain chances overnight and into Monday morning. That
shortwave will be on the move as the next upstream kicker will be
fast approaching the region late Monday/Monday night. There will be
a lull in the rain chances during the evening, except for the far
northwest with low and mid level warm advection ramping up ahead of
the deepening upper wave late Monday night into Tuesday morning with
scattered showers and isolated storms possible across mainly our
west.
A rather strong/dynamic upper wave will deepen into the upper
Midwest later Tuesday into Tuesday night with the key being the
timing of the cold front into the forecast area during the day
Tuesday. The operational GFS and NAM80 were faster than the 12z
ECMWF and Canadian models with the frontal passage Tuesday. With
the upper pattern amplifying across the central U.S., the slower
solutions may be the way to go. Certainly not lacking the deep
shear with this system with models all over the place with the
instability Tuesday afternoon thanks to the handling of the
low level moisture by each model. Forecast soundings off the NAM
for Tuesday afternoon showing surface base cape values approaching
3000 J/KG with 0-6km shear values around 50 kts. However, the
model also depicts a fairly strong capping inversion in place over
most of the forecast area except east of I-55 where the stronger
lift and low level convergence along the frontal boundary may be
sufficient enough to weaken the low level inhibition. Will
continue to carry the higher POPs across the north, but extend the
30 POPs further south, especially Tuesday afternoon. With the
deepening system at the surface and aloft, we should see an
increase in surface winds during the day Tuesday with gusts easily
over 30 mph into the afternoon hours.
Mainly shower chances Tuesday night in the wake of the frontal
boundary with a gradual cooling trend as we head through the
remainder of the week with the strong upper low expected to slowly
migrate east across the lower Great Lakes. Warmest temperatures will
be ahead of the strong cold front on Tuesday afternoon when we
should see highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s from northwest to
southeast. By Friday and Saturday, highs will cool back into the
upper 40s to lower 50s, which is back closer to where we should be
for the middle of March.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
VFR ceilings prevail at the central Illinois terminals late this
morning: however, a passing upper disturbance is steadily
moistening the airmass from the top-down. MVFR ceilings have
already developed at KDEC...with IFR noted further south across
southern Illinois into Missouri. HRRR is doing a decent job with
the latest trends and shows IFR ceilings gradually expanding N/NW
into the area this afternoon and evening. Based on HRRR forecasts,
have introduced IFR at KDEC/KSPI by 00z...then further north to
KPIA by around 04z. Not much in the way of precip is expected this
afternoon and evening due to only weak forcing, so will continue
with just VCSH. As a stronger system approaches from the south,
showers will become more widespread late tonight into Sunday
morning. Will carry predominant rain with VCTS at all TAF sites
Sunday morning accordingly.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
252 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...
231 PM CST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST IS ON PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AS RAIN EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE CWA OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. FARTHER
SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST...AND IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO
REGION OF WEAK PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE/OLD CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WHICH IS BEING KICKED OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST BY ANOTHER STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS IL/IN SUNDAY...WITH PRECIP
POTENTIAL RAMPING UP ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND INCREASES MOIST ASCENT ACROSS LOW LEVEL WARM
FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. IN FACT A WEAKER LEAD SHORT WAVE
WAS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MO/EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON IN A
REGION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
300-305 K THETA SURFACES. AMDAR AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS DEPICT
LOW LEVELS BELOW 500-600 MB ARE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
IL...AND WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN AND SATURATE MORE
FULLY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL INTO THIS EVENING. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH-NORTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES.
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE CWA GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS THE GREATEST
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
EVENING WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE.
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AGAIN GIVEN ALIGNMENT OF FORCING FEATURES
AND PWATS OF 1+ INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90 PERCENTILE BASED
ON ILX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID-MARCH. DEEP MOIST-ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES ALSO APPEAR TO YIELD SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TIER OR SO OF CWA COUNTIES
FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPS REACHED THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHGAN THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE CLIMB SOMEWHAT. CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL DEW POINT TEMPS SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 40S MOST AREAS AND AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH...AND
DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...PURE ADVECTION
OF WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMP AGAIN IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S SOUTH. INCREASING EAST WINDS (10-20 MPH) WILL COMBINE
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO KEEP THINGS COOLER NORTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WAVE AND BAROCLINIC REGION...WITH TEMPS FROM THE MID
40S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE LOWER 50S FARTHER INLAND IN LINE
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
306 AM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GUIDANCE STILL FEATURES A STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE MIDWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS A 980-982 MB LOW OVER
SOUTHER MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ONE OF THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THE LOW WILL BE STRONG WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MAX GUSTS OF
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
PRECIP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND
ECMWF HANDLE THE PATH OF THE LOW VERY DIFFERENTLY...SO KEPT POPS IN
THE LOW END LIKELY RANGE OR LOWER DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS FEATURES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN PRECIP
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOT REACHING THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEEING SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM IN THUNDER COVERAGE...BUT LOW IN EXACT TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
KEPT THE THEME OF LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TUESDAY LOOKS WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FEATURE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW AND ITS UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING
OVER THE MIDWEST WITH CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS QUICKLY
SHIFTING EAST AND MUCH LESS PRECIP. KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A PUSH OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S LATE THIS WEEK
AND LOWS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
MAIN TAF CONCERNS ARE DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY RAIN/SHOWERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND EXPECTED DETERIORATION TO IFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS WEST-EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
IL LATE THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY 5 KT OR
LESS. LAKE BREEZE PUSH MAY BE FAIRLY WEAK THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...THOUGH SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD
BECOME EAST AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL IL
WAS FALLING FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUD BASES...AND IS EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE AS IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS LESS FAVORABLE FORCING ALOFT AND DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR. SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON ON...THOUGH EXPECT THAT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL MAKE
FOR MINIMAL/NO IMPACTS. HAVE INDICATED VCSH LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND AT TIMES BUT WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AFFECTING TERMINALS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DURATION. FORCING INCREASES LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
EVENTUALLY SATURATES THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH RAIN
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD 12-15Z SUNDAY MORNING. COOL EASTERLY
FLOW AND SATURATING LOW LEVELS SUGGEST DETERIORATION TO IFR...WITH
GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING CEILINGS BELOW
1000 FT BY MIDDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE MIXING
WILL BE SHALLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT WINDS 11-13 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT WITH SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING INTO EAST CENTRAL IL.
CONFIDENCE GENERALLY HIGH WITH WIND TRENDS AND SHRA SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SHRA COVERAGE
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THOUGH HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
252 PM CST
FEW CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE CENTRAL/LOWER GREAT LAKES.
MODEST EAST WINDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WAS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...AND EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE A BIT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE LAKE AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO IL/IN BY EVENING. IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME THAT THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL THEN SLACKEN AGAIN INTO MONDAY
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEAK LOW.
A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL BEING WATCHED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH FORECAST MODELS STILL DEVELOPING A DEEP
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES OR UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY AND MOVING THE LOW ACROSS THE LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WOULD STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS/GALES BY WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS STILL AMPLE SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER... MAKING CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE WIND FIELD
FAIRLY LOW.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
232 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...
231 PM CST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST IS ON PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AS RAIN EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE CWA OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. FARTHER
SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST...AND IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO
REGION OF WEAK PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE/OLD CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WHICH IS BEING KICKED OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST BY ANOTHER STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS IL/IN SUNDAY...WITH PRECIP
POTENTIAL RAMPING UP ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND INCREASES MOIST ASCENT ACROSS LOW LEVEL WARM
FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. IN FACT A WEAKER LEAD SHORT WAVE
WAS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MO/EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON IN A
REGION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
300-305 K THETA SURFACES. AMDAR AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS DEPICT
LOW LEVELS BELOW 500-600 MB ARE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
IL...AND WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN AND SATURATE MORE
FULLY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL INTO THIS EVENING. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH-NORTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES.
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE CWA GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS THE GREATEST
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
EVENING WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE.
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AGAIN GIVEN ALIGNMENT OF FORCING FEATURES
AND PWATS OF 1+ INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90 PERCENTILE BASED
ON ILX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID-MARCH. DEEP MOIST-ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES ALSO APPEAR TO YIELD SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TIER OR SO OF CWA COUNTIES
FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPS REACHED THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHGAN THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE CLIMB SOMEWHAT. CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL DEW POINT TEMPS SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 40S MOST AREAS AND AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH...AND
DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...PURE ADVECTION
OF WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMP AGAIN IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S SOUTH. INCREASING EAST WINDS (10-20 MPH) WILL COMBINE
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO KEEP THINGS COOLER NORTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WAVE AND BAROCLINIC REGION...WITH TEMPS FROM THE MID
40S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE LOWER 50S FARTHER INLAND IN LINE
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
306 AM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GUIDANCE STILL FEATURES A STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE MIDWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS A 980-982 MB LOW OVER
SOUTHER MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ONE OF THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THE LOW WILL BE STRONG WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MAX GUSTS OF
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
PRECIP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND
ECMWF HANDLE THE PATH OF THE LOW VERY DIFFERENTLY...SO KEPT POPS IN
THE LOW END LIKELY RANGE OR LOWER DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS FEATURES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN PRECIP
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOT REACHING THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEEING SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM IN THUNDER COVERAGE...BUT LOW IN EXACT TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
KEPT THE THEME OF LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TUESDAY LOOKS WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FEATURE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW AND ITS UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING
OVER THE MIDWEST WITH CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS QUICKLY
SHIFTING EAST AND MUCH LESS PRECIP. KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A PUSH OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S LATE THIS WEEK
AND LOWS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
MAIN TAF CONCERNS ARE DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY RAIN/SHOWERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND EXPECTED DETERIORATION TO IFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS WEST-EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
IL LATE THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY 5 KT OR
LESS. LAKE BREEZE PUSH MAY BE FAIRLY WEAK THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...THOUGH SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD
BECOME EAST AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL IL
WAS FALLING FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUD BASES...AND IS EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE AS IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS LESS FAVORABLE FORCING ALOFT AND DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR. SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON ON...THOUGH EXPECT THAT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL MAKE
FOR MINIMAL/NO IMPACTS. HAVE INDICATED VCSH LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND AT TIMES BUT WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AFFECTING TERMINALS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DURATION. FORCING INCREASES LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
EVENTUALLY SATURATES THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH RAIN
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD 12-15Z SUNDAY MORNING. COOL EASTERLY
FLOW AND SATURATING LOW LEVELS SUGGEST DETERIORATION TO IFR...WITH
GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING CEILINGS BELOW
1000 FT BY MIDDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE MIXING
WILL BE SHALLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT WINDS 11-13 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT WITH SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING INTO EAST CENTRAL IL.
CONFIDENCE GENERALLY HIGH WITH WIND TRENDS AND SHRA SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SHRA COVERAGE
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THOUGH HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
148 AM CST
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL INFLUENCE THE LAKE TODAY DESPITE BEING
CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST. WITH THE LIGHTER AMBIENT FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE...AN ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. IT IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF THIS
LOW...NEAR 29.6 INCHES OR SO...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE LAKE OR JUST SOUTH OF IT. THE OVERALL PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
THEN BRIEFLY BECOME BAGGY THE REST OF MONDAY ALLOWING ONLY A WEAK
PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A PRESSURE LESS THAN
29.2 INCHES HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR GALES FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD IF NOT A LONGER DURATION
AS COOLER AIR WRAPS IN AROUND THIS LOW. THE CIPS
ANALOGS...BASICALLY A REFLECTION OF WHAT HAS OCCURRED IN SIMILAR
SITUATIONS TO THAT FORECAST BY ONE OF THE NWS COMPUTER
MODELS...INDICATES 50 TO 70 PERCENT OF THE TOP MATCHES HAD GALES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THIS PRESENTLY LOOKS MOST
FAVORED ON WEDNESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
POINT.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
Cut-off upper low that has been nearly stationary over southern
Texas over the past couple of days is finally getting pushed
northward today by another system moving across the Desert
Southwest. Latest water vapor imagery shows the low over northeast
Texas, with a weak lead short-wave further north near Saint Louis.
This initial wave is producing enough synoptic lift to trigger a
few showers across the area, although precip is struggling to
develop and reach the ground due to a very dry airmass below
700mb. Showers have been more widespread further west from western
Illinois across northern Missouri, but these are lifting northward
and will remain largely west of the KILX CWA. Meanwhile, very
little precip is occurring upstream across western Kentucky and
southern Illinois. Based on dry 12z KILX upper air sounding and
latest radar trends, have cut PoPs significantly for today. Will
only mention isolated showers across most of the area, with
scattered wording along/west of the Illinois River. Due to the
extensive cloud cover and continued E/NE low-level flow, think
previous forecast highs are too warm. Have therefore lowered them
into the upper 50s to around 60. Forecast update has already been
issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
A closed upper low over Texas early this morning is about to start
moving rapidly northeastward toward the Midwest today as a strong
progressive trough pushes rapidly eastward through the southwest
U.S. to kick the TX low northeastward. Broken bands of showers
continue to approach central/SE Illinois from the south according to
regional radar with a few spotty reports of light rain reaching the
ground. Models and radar trends indicate the most widespread rain
over western Missouri and headed northward to largely miss central
Illinois today...while lighter and more scattered precip looks to
reach central IL. Have therefore kept precip chances 50 percent or
less through most of the area with only light amounts under 0.10"
expected. Isolated thunderstorms could become possible south of I-72
during the late afternoon, but instability looks to remain fairly
weak. Temperatures expected to reach the low 60s with light east
winds around 5 to 8 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
Have increasing chances of showers spreading nne across central IL
during tonight into Sunday as upper level low over central Texas
moves into the mid MS river valley. Meanwhile another upper level
low over southern CA to track into southern IL by 12Z Monday and
keep good chances of showers going into Monday. Have isolated
thunderstorms over southeast half of CWA tonight and across central
and southeast IL Sunday. Thunderstorms chances then retreat back
into southeast IL Sunday night and near the Wabash river valley on
Monday. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1 inch through Monday across
area. Highs Sunday range from around 60F northern CWA to upper 60s
in southeast IL. Highs Monday mostly in the mid to upper 60s with
Jacksonville and sw near 70F.
00Z models continue to differ with evolution of strong storm system
affecting the Midwest Tuesday. A strong cutoff 500 mb low to track
across MN/IA and upper MS river valley Tue afternoon and Tue evening.
A strong cold front to sweep eastward across IL Tue afternoon or Tue
evening depening on which model you follow. Leaned on ensemble
solution due to these differences and maintained higher chances of
showers and thunderstorms on Tue with likely pops north of Peoria
while convection from I-74 south. SPC does not have any risk areas
yet over IL on Tue/Tue night but with strong wind shear and some
instability, the timing of the front and amount of warming/moisture
return will determine the risk Tue afternoon/early Tue evening.
Breezy south winds and mild highs mostly in the lower 70s Tue with
some upper 60s from Peoria north. Even stronger WSW winds on Wed as
strong upper level low moves over Lake MI and into western lower MI
on Wed. This brings in cooler air with highs in the upper 50s/lower
60s with isolated showers possible especially north of I-70.
Upper level low slowly moves east across the central Great Lakes Thu
and eastern Great Lakes Friday and continues to cool temps into the
50s Thu and low to mid 50s Friday while lows get into the 30s by
work weeks end. Another upper level trof appears to move into the
Midwest by next weekend returning chances of showers Friday
night/Sat.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
VFR ceilings prevail at the central Illinois terminals late this
morning: however, a passing upper disturbance is steadily
moistening the airmass from the top-down. MVFR ceilings have
already developed at KDEC...with IFR noted further south across
southern Illinois into Missouri. HRRR is doing a decent job with
the latest trends and shows IFR ceilings gradually expanding N/NW
into the area this afternoon and evening. Based on HRRR forecasts,
have introduced IFR at KDEC/KSPI by 00z...then further north to
KPIA by around 04z. Not much in the way of precip is expected this
afternoon and evening due to only weak forcing, so will continue
with just VCSH. As a stronger system approaches from the south,
showers will become more widespread late tonight into Sunday
morning. Will carry predominant rain with VCTS at all TAF sites
Sunday morning accordingly.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
204 AM MST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS OUR CWA BETWEEN
THESE FEATURE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY LAYER. AT THE SURFACE
STRONG LEE TROUGH IN COLORADO HAS LED TO TIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
AND GUSTY WINDS (25-30KT) ACROSS OUR CWA.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WINDS MAY
REMAIN 10-15KT IN THE WEST AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTHWARD MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BAND OF O
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC AXIS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND ROTATING TOWARDS OUR CWA. CURRENT TREND FROM GFS/ECMWF
NOW MATCHES UP WITH NAM/ARW/NMM WITH THIS REMAINING FURTHER EAST AND
RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT OUR CWA MAY BE MISSED COMPLETELY (HILL
CITY/NORTON STILL SEEING A BETTER CHANCE). WHILE STILL SHOWING THE
POSSIBLY FOR INCREASING STRATUS IN OUR FAR EAST...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED MUCH DRIER IN THE BL CONDITIONS.
I REMOVED DRIZZLE MENTION IN THE MORNING AND I TRENDED POPS BACK TO
20 PERCENT...THOUGH IT KEPT SIMILAR TIMING/POSITION TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUITY JUST IN CASE. THIS ALSO RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES
COULD CLEAR RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES (70S)...AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS. CONSERVATIVE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN THIS
DIRECTION...AND IF THIS IS HOW IT PLAYS OUT THE DAYTIME PERIOD COULD
END UP BEING MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MST SAT MAR 12 2016
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE WEAKENED THE SYSTEM EXITING THE
REGION TUESDAY...MAINLY NOW AS AN OPEN WAVE WORKING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS STILL POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...THE GENERAL TREND RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS FOR
CLEARING/DRYING CONDITIONS TO ENSUE UNDER PERSISTENT NW FLOW.
GOING INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OFF THE ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROMISE TO GIVE THE AREA BEST
CHANCES FOR MOISTURE IN THE EXTENDED. GFS/ECMWF DO DIFFER ON STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH GFS CARRYING SYSTEM THRU AS AN OPEN
TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A CLOSED OFF SYSTEM. MOISTURE INFLOW TO
THE CWA WHICH EACH OF THESE DOES DIFFER AS A RESULT...AND WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
PRECIP/MOVEMENT...AND THE ECMWF ALLOWS MUCH MORE PRECIP POTENTIAL
BEING A CLOSED OFF SYSTEM. AREAL COVERAGE OF BOTH HITS MUCH/ALL OF
THE CWA ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
WITH THESE DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF
SYSTEM...WILL ONLY KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST AT THIS TIME WITH
FOCUS OVER S/SW ZONES BASED ON SYSTEM TRACK. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...AND WITH COLDER AIR WORKING INTO
AREA...CAN NOT RULE OUT -SW AT NIGHT EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUM WEST. TREND AFTER PASSAGE ON FRIDAY IS FOR GENERAL
CLEARING WITH SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LINGERING MOISTURE ON WRAP-AROUND FLOW WITH THIS LOW AS IT EXITS
COULD BRING PRECIP TO EASTERN ZONES...BUT CURRENT TREND IS FOR
CLEARING SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION.
THE TREND IS DOWNWARD FOR TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. COLDER AIR BROUGHT
SOUTH BY THE NNW FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL DROP THE AREA TO
NORMAL...OR BELOW NORMAL NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
TUESDAY...THEN DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 50S WED/THURS...THEN 40S BY
FRI/SAT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S WITH SOME LOW 30S
IN EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MIXING AND BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1015 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS OUR CWA BETWEEN
THESE FEATURE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY LAYER. AT THE SURFACE
STRONG LEE TROUGH IN COLORADO HAS LED TO TIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
AND GUSTY WINDS (25-30KT) ACROSS OUR CWA.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WINDS MAY
REMAIN 10-15KT IN THE WEST AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTHWARD MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BAND OF O
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC AXIS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND ROTATING TOWARDS OUR CWA. CURRENT TREND FROM GFS/ECMWF
NOW MATCHES UP WITH NAM/ARW/NMM WITH THIS REMAINING FURTHER EAST AND
RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT OUR CWA MAY BE MISSED COMPLETELY (HILL
CITY/NORTON STILL SEEING A BETTER CHANCE). WHILE STILL SHOWING THE
POSSIBLY FOR INCREASING STRATUS IN OUR FAR EAST...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED MUCH DRIER IN THE BL CONDITIONS.
I REMOVED DRIZZLE MENTION IN THE MORNING AND I TRENDED POPS BACK TO
20 PERCENT...THOUGH IT KEPT SIMILAR TIMING/POSITION TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUITY JUST IN CASE. THIS ALSO RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES
COULD CLEAR RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES (70S)...AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS. CONSERVATIVE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN THIS
DIRECTION...AND IF THIS IS HOW IT PLAYS OUT THE DAYTIME PERIOD COULD
END UP BEING MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES FOR RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A BAND OF SATURATED AIR MOVES WESTWARD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MAIN LIFT WITH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
BE ABOVE IT IN THE DRIER AIR. AM THINKING THIS...ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA. MODELS
DISAGREE WITH HOW FAR WEST THE RAINFALL WILL EXTEND...SO WENT WITH
THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT. IF RAIN DOES DEVELOP...EXPECT THERE TO ONLY
BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
OVERNIGHT THE SATURATED LAYER WILL DEEPEN TO THE SURFACE...CAUSING
FOG TO FORM. EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN ALONG/EAST OF THE DRY LINE
THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE KS/CO BORDER...WITH THE DENSEST FOG OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY MORNING THE FOG WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. THIS WILL LEAD
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO DECLINE BY MID AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH.
MONDAY HIGHS WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WHICH MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL GIVEN THE FORECAST WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LATE MONDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME ISOLATED RAINFALL MAY MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE CENTER ELONGATING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...GIVING THE AREA ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE SNOW IF
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXTEND INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVES
OVER THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE FROM THE NORTH AFTER
MONDAY...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MIXING AND BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...TDS FINALLY MIXED THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO DECREASE RH VALUES TO THE
15-20% RANGE. IT DOESNT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE RH AT 15% FOR THE
3HR NECESSARY FOR A RFW OR FOR A LARGE AREA OF ANY INDIVIDUAL
COUNTY. ON SATURDAY...I HAVE CONCERNS THAT IF CLEARING TAKES
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 AS ADVERTISED BY LATEST HI RES MODELS
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SIMILAR SITUATION AS TODAY (NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER). I WILL KEEP MENTION LIMITED TO HWO FOR THESE
PERIODS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25 WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL ANY FURTHER. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO DECLINE BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
NOT ALLOW FOR A MORE THAN A COUPLE HOUR DURATION OF NEAR CRITERIA
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE THE WINDS FALL BELOW CRITERIA.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND FOR THE WEST HALF WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY
THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR/JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
421 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS OUR CWA BETWEEN
THESE FEATURE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY LAYER. AT THE SURFACE
STRONG LEE TROUGH IN COLORADO HAS LED TO TIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
AND GUSTY WINDS (25-30KT) ACROSS OUR CWA.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WINDS MAY
REMAIN 10-15KT IN THE WEST AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTHWARD MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BAND OF O
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC AXIS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND ROTATING TOWARDS OUR CWA. CURRENT TREND FROM GFS/ECMWF
NOW MATCHES UP WITH NAM/ARW/NMM WITH THIS REMAINING FURTHER EAST AND
RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT OUR CWA MAY BE MISSED COMPLETELY (HILL
CITY/NORTON STILL SEEING A BETTER CHANCE). WHILE STILL SHOWING THE
POSSIBLY FOR INCREASING STRATUS IN OUR FAR EAST...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED MUCH DRIER IN THE BL CONDITIONS.
I REMOVED DRIZZLE MENTION IN THE MORNING AND I TRENDED POPS BACK TO
20 PERCENT...THOUGH IT KEPT SIMILAR TIMING/POSITION TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUITY JUST IN CASE. THIS ALSO RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES
COULD CLEAR RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES (70S)...AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS. CONSERVATIVE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN THIS
DIRECTION...AND IF THIS IS HOW IT PLAYS OUT THE DAYTIME PERIOD COULD
END UP BEING MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES FOR RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A BAND OF SATURATED AIR MOVES WESTWARD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MAIN LIFT WITH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
BE ABOVE IT IN THE DRIER AIR. AM THINKING THIS...ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA. MODELS
DISAGREE WITH HOW FAR WEST THE RAINFALL WILL EXTEND...SO WENT WITH
THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT. IF RAIN DOES DEVELOP...EXPECT THERE TO ONLY
BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
OVERNIGHT THE SATURATED LAYER WILL DEEPEN TO THE SURFACE...CAUSING
FOG TO FORM. EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN ALONG/EAST OF THE DRY LINE
THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE KS/CO BORDER...WITH THE DENSEST FOG OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY MORNING THE FOG WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. THIS WILL LEAD
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO DECLINE BY MID AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH.
MONDAY HIGHS WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WHICH MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL GIVEN THE FORECAST WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LATE MONDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME ISOLATED RAINFALL MAY MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE CENTER ELONGATING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...GIVING THE AREA ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE SNOW IF
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXTEND INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVES
OVER THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE FROM THE NORTH AFTER
MONDAY...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 419 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL RELAX SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH MIXING. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AT KMCK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...TDS FINALLY MIXED THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO DECREASE RH VALUES TO THE
15-20% RANGE. IT DOESNT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE RH AT 15% FOR THE
3HR NECESSARY FOR A RFW OR FOR A LARGE AREA OF ANY INDIVIDUAL
COUNTY. ON SATURDAY...I HAVE CONCERNS THAT IF CLEARING TAKES
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 AS ADVERTISED BY LATEST HI RES MODELS
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SIMILAR SITUATION AS TODAY (NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER). I WILL KEEP MENTION LIMITED TO HWO FOR THESE
PERIODS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25 WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL ANY FURTHER. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO DECLINE BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
NOT ALLOW FOR A MORE THAN A COUPLE HOUR DURATION OF NEAR CRITERIA
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE THE WINDS FALL BELOW CRITERIA.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND FOR THE WEST HALF WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY
THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR/JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1144 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
INCREASED WINDS A BIT MORE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON
EARLY OBSERVATION TRENDS AND CONTINUED SOUNDING SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL ITERATIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK. DID UP WINDS A BIT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST RAP AND HRRR
SOUNDINGS MIXING DOWN SOME HIGHER VELOCITIES. OTHERWISE...JUST
BLENDED THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH EXCEPT TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
12Z BISMARCK SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR AVAILABLE ALOFT IF
WE ARE ABLE TO MIX DEEPLY ENOUGH TODAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
BREEZY AND WARM TODAY...WITH SOME HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
UPSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST INTO
THE ROCKIES. THERE WERE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES...ONE OVER ALBERTA AND THE OTHER OVER WYOMING. A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE WYOMING LOW EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATED DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS
WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
MIXING ALOFT WITH WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL BRING ANOTHER MILD AND
BREEZY DAY TO NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH.
TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXPANDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A FAST H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. IN THE WEST...IT SHOULD
AGAIN BE MAINLY DRY.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO STILL BE IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS VARYING QUITE A BIT IN THEIR HANDLING OF
SPECIFIC FEATURES...AND THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE GEFS WITH
LARGE SPREADS BEING SHOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL NOT
STRAY MUCH FROM THE MODEL BLENDS WHICH REFLECT THE MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM MONTANA.
EXPECT GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
KDIK/KBIS/KMOT...GRADUALLY CALMING BY THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY WEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJMS...WHERE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
TODAY:
AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (AROUND H850)...A DRY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
BASIN/4-CORNERS WHILE A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF COAST. THE DRIER AIR
IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHILE THE
MOIST FLOW MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25 TO 40 KNOT RANGE TODAY.
TODAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ACT TO ADVECT THE SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND AS TEMPERATURES RISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THE SURFACE WILL MIX WITH UP TO THE H850 LEVEL. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND...IN TURN...LOWERING THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. THUS EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND
20 PERCENT IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THE MID LEVELS ARE
DRIEST...AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND 40 PERCENT
IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE MIXING WITH MID LEVELS
SHOULD BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 30 MPH.
THIS WILL MEAN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE COMBINATION OF
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
20 PERCENT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...THUS WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING.
SUNDAY:
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL TO AS LOW AS 20
PERCENT IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...FORECAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...BUT ITS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...ZH
FIRE WEATHER...JV/CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
932 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK. DID UP WINDS A BIT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST RAP AND HRRR
SOUNDINGS MIXING DOWN SOME HIGHER VELOCITIES. OTHERWISE...JUST
BLENDED THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH EXCEPT TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
12Z BISMARCK SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR AVAILABLE ALOFT IF
WE ARE ABLE TO MIX DEEPLY ENOUGH TODAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
BREEZY AND WARM TODAY...WITH SOME HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
UPSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST INTO
THE ROCKIES. THERE WERE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES...ONE OVER ALBERTA AND THE OTHER OVER WYOMING. A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE WYOMING LOW EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATED DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS
WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
MIXING ALOFT WITH WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL BRING ANOTHER MILD AND
BREEZY DAY TO NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH.
TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXPANDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A FAST H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. IN THE WEST...IT SHOULD
AGAIN BE MAINLY DRY.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO STILL BE IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS VARYING QUITE A BIT IN THEIR HANDLING OF
SPECIFIC FEATURES...AND THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE GEFS WITH
LARGE SPREADS BEING SHOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL NOT
STRAY MUCH FROM THE MODEL BLENDS WHICH REFLECT THE MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FOR THE 12 UTC TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE...THERE SHOULD BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS
FROM AROUND 12Z-16Z. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP AT KBIS AND KJMS AROUND 06Z WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 2000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
TODAY:
AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (AROUND H850)...A DRY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
BASIN/4-CORNERS WHILE A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF COAST. THE DRIER AIR
IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHILE THE
MOIST FLOW MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25 TO 40 KNOT RANGE TODAY.
TODAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ACT TO ADVECT THE SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND AS TEMPERATURES RISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THE SURFACE WILL MIX WITH UP TO THE H850 LEVEL. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND...IN TURN...LOWERING THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. THUS EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND
20 PERCENT IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THE MID LEVELS ARE
DRIEST...AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND 40 PERCENT
IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE MIXING WITH MID LEVELS
SHOULD BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 30 MPH.
THIS WILL MEAN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE COMBINATION OF
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
20 PERCENT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...THUS WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING.
SUNDAY:
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL TO AS LOW AS 20
PERCENT IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...FORECAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...BUT ITS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...JV/CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1237 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE STARTING OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WAVES OF CIRRUS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND THICKENING IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. DESPITE SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT N TO NE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. BACKED
OFF ON HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES
COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NEAR
LAKE ERIE TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHOW SOME LIGHT RAIN GETTING BACK INTO THE S AND
SW PART OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY SO WILL INCREASE POP ENOUGH
THERE FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC TO GET SOMETHING MENTIONED IN THE
TEXT PRODUCTS.
PATCHY DENSE FOG AT THE ERI LAKESHORE SHOULD IMPROVE BY MIDDAY AS
AIRMASS STARTS TO MIX MORE AND TEMPS WARM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER TEXAS WILL OPEN AND
MOVE NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER WET PERIOD IN STORE DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN TONIGHT UNTIL LATE BUT
EXPECT RAIN TO BE AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS ROUTE 30 BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND POSSIBLY EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS CLEVELAND AND TOLEDO. THE
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW SPREAD NORTH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN
PLACE TO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH
ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS I-90 ON SUNDAY AND HELD ONTO A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE ERIE AGAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. ELSEWHERE
BACKED OFF TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS BY A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTING .75
TO 1.25 INCH OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. SOIL REMAINS PRETTY WET BUT EXPECT TO SEE
JUST A FEW RIVERS APPROACH MINOR FLOODING LEVELS. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT UNLESS WE END UP WITH MORE
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOLIDLY BE IN THE 60S MOST AREAS
ON MONDAY.
ONE LAST SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. A
STRONG UPPER JET RACES ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE LOW DEEPENING
AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS
REMAINS FASTER AND STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM. CONTINUE TO BE
SKEPTICAL OF THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION BUT ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TOWARDS THE SLOWER
TIMING WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE MAY
BE SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. WHILE
AN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER CANT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT
DOES APPEAR THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY. THIS LULL IN THE
SHOWERS IS MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND HAVE
LEANED THIS WAY FOR THE FORECAST. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ARRIVE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE STRUGGLING TO RELEASE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE WARMEST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS NEAR OR ABOVE 60. IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED
UP. COOLER BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND WILL SEE CIGS
LOWER AND THICKEN THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SHOULD REACH
KCLE AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. EXPECT KERI TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH 18Z.
THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST BUT EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO DIP
TO MVFR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE RAIN STARTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
WILL BECOME E TO NE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 KNOTS MOST
AREAS TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY IN RAIN WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD FROM LAKE ERIE TODAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS WILL
PROVIDE EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
WHILE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
914 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE STARTING OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WAVES OF CIRRUS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND THICKENING IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. DESPITE SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT N TO NE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. BACKED
OFF ON HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES
COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NEAR
LAKE ERIE TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHOW SOME LIGHT RAIN GETTING BACK INTO THE S AND
SW PART OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY SO WILL INCREASE POP ENOUGH
THERE FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC TO GET SOMETHING MENTIONED IN THE
TEXT PRODUCTS.
PATCHY DENSE FOG AT THE ERI LAKESHORE SHOULD IMPROVE BY MIDDAY AS
AIRMASS STARTS TO MIX MORE AND TEMPS WARM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER TEXAS WILL OPEN AND
MOVE NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER WET PERIOD IN STORE DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN TONIGHT UNTIL LATE BUT
EXPECT RAIN TO BE AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS ROUTE 30 BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND POSSIBLY EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS CLEVELAND AND TOLEDO. THE
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW SPREAD NORTH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN
PLACE TO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH
ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS I-90 ON SUNDAY AND HELD ONTO A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE ERIE AGAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. ELSEWHERE
BACKED OFF TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS BY A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTING .75
TO 1.25 INCH OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. SOIL REMAINS PRETTY WET BUT EXPECT TO SEE
JUST A FEW RIVERS APPROACH MINOR FLOODING LEVELS. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT UNLESS WE END UP WITH MORE
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOLIDLY BE IN THE 60S MOST AREAS
ON MONDAY.
ONE LAST SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. A
STRONG UPPER JET RACES ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE LOW DEEPENING
AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS
REMAINS FASTER AND STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM. CONTINUE TO BE
SKEPTICAL OF THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION BUT ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TOWARDS THE SLOWER
TIMING WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE MAY
BE SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. WHILE
AN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER CANT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT
DOES APPEAR THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY. THIS LULL IN THE
SHOWERS IS MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND HAVE
LEANED THIS WAY FOR THE FORECAST. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ARRIVE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE STRUGGLING TO RELEASE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE WARMEST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS NEAR OR ABOVE 60. IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED
UP. COOLER BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z. WORST OF THE FOG WILL
BE NEAR KERI UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTER 14Z ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR WITH INCREASING MIDDLE AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO THE EVENING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AFTER SUNSET WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION
CEILINGS WILL LOWER FURTHER AS SOME LIGHT RAIN BEGINS. THIS WILL
ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FORM SOUTH TO NORTH. ONLY THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES COULD SEE RAIN THROUGH 12Z.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY IN RAIN WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD FROM LAKE ERIE TODAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS WILL
PROVIDE EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
WHILE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
527 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...PAVING THE
WAY FOR A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
STRETCH UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING LATER TODAY AND LASTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VWP AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY
TURNED SOUTHERLY AND IS SURPRISINGLY ROBUST WITH THE CCX VWP
SHOWING THE WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 35KT JUST OFF THE DECK.
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO RETREAT OFFSHORE...WE WILL SEE THE CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO THICKEN TODAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLY REACHING MY FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. THIS LEADING IMPULSE IS WEAK AND
WEAKENING AND THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE BOTH IN HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN MANAGES TO MOVE AS WELL
AS HOW LONG IT STICKS AROUND OVERNIGHT. THE SREF AND ECMWF HINT
AT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LIGHT PRECIP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING WHILE
THE GFS/GEFS PAIRING ARE MORE PERSISTENT HINTING AT OCCASIONAL
RAIN. AT ANY RATE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL STILL BE MILDER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE LINE ALOFT IS FINALLY FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH PAVING
THE WAY FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE DEEPER INROADS INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...2-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL...WILL ADVANCE STEADILY NORTH DURING THE DAY WITH MOST OF
THE AREA LIKELY SEEING AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.
THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEMS
DESTINED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE REGION...WHERE HPC HAS
QPF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE WARM FRONT MAKES ONLY SLOW
PROGRESS NORTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE MARITIMES SUGGESTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AIR
DAMMING...CLOUDY AND DAMP WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN COMBINING ENERGY FROM A LOW
MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA WITH THE STRONG LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOISTURE PUMP FOR THE FLOODING RAINS THAT HAVE
BEEN AFFECTING THE GULF STATES.
WITH THIS IN MIND...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN WET AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT RIDE NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE DEEP SYSTEM THAT WILL FIRST COMBINE THEN EJECT THRU THE TENN
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE NERN US.
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT OFFERS A BRIEF BREAK ON
TUESDAY...AN NEW APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED FOR MID
TO LATE WEEK THAT PROMISES TO CHANGE THE PATTERN A BIT AND BRING A
PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ARISE AT THIS TIME AS THE MED RANGE
MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE LOWER
48. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF
HUDSON`S BAY BY WEDNESDAY WHICH SLOWS THE APPROACH OF THE CHUNK
OF COLD AIR MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE GR LAKES. THE GFS/GEFS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW AND TAKE AT LEAST 2 MORE DAYS
TO DEVELOP THE BLOCKING HIGH NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. WHILE THIS
NORMALLY WOULD LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK A BIT...THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COOL DOWN AFTER
MIDWEEK. WHILE IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY...ENSEMBLES INDICATE TEMPERATURES ONLY NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS DOMINATING THE PATTERN
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGE AT 4 AM.
09Z TAFS SENT.
MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY HOW FAST MVFR CIGS GET INTO
JST LATER TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNNIG...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. BASED ON LATEST SREF PROBS
AND RAP MDL OUTPUT...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE KBFD FCST ATTM.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER TODAY. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS FROM
KUNV SOUTHWARD THRU KAOO AND KJST.
FOCUS OF CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA...WHERE
LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS ASSOC WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KJST AND KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY KJST/KAOO.
MON...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
459 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...PAVING THE
WAY FOR A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
STRETCH UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING LATER TODAY AND LASTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VWP AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY
TURNED SOUTHERLY AND IS SURPRISINGLY ROBUST WITH THE CCX VWP
SHOWING THE WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 35KT JUST OFF THE DECK.
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO RETREAT OFFSHORE...WE WILL SEE THE CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO THICKEN TODAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLY REACHING MY FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. THIS LEADING IMPULSE IS WEAK AND
WEAKENING AND THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE BOTH IN HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN MANAGES TO MOVE AS WELL
AS HOW LONG IT STICKS AROUND OVERNIGHT. THE SREF AND ECMWF HINT
AT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LIGHT PRECIP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING WHILE
THE GFS/GEFS PAIRING ARE MORE PERSISTENT HINTING AT OCCASIONAL
RAIN. AT ANY RATE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL STILL BE MILDER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE LINE ALOFT IS FINALLY FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH PAVING
THE WAY FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE DEEPER INROADS INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...2-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL...WILL ADVANCE STEADILY NORTH DURING THE DAY WITH MOST OF
THE AREA LIKELY SEEING AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.
THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEMS
DESTINED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE REGION...WHERE HPC HAS
QPF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE WARM FRONT MAKES ONLY SLOW
PROGRESS NORTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE MARITIMES SUGGESTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AIR
DAMMING...CLOUDY AND DAMP WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN COMBINING ENERGY FROM A LOW
MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA WITH THE STRONG LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOISTURE PUMP FOR THE FLOODING RAINS THAT HAVE
BEEN AFFECTING THE GULF STATES.
WITH THIS IN MIND...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN WET AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT RIDE NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE DEEP SYSTEM THAT WILL FIRST COMBINE THEN EJECT THRU THE TENN
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE NERN US.
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT OFFERS A BRIEF BREAK ON
TUESDAY...AN NEW APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED FOR MID
TO LATE WEEK THAT PROMISES TO CHANGE THE PATTERN A BIT AND BRING A
PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ARISE AT THIS TIME AS THE MED RANGE
MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE LOWER
48. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF
HUDSON`S BAY BY WEDNESDAY WHICH SLOWS THE APPROACH OF THE CHUNK
OF COLD AIR MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE GR LAKES. THE GFS/GEFS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW AND TAKE AT LEAST 2 MORE DAYS
TO DEVELOP THE BLOCKING HIGH NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. WHILE THIS
NORMALLY WOULD LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK A BIT...THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COOL DOWN AFTER
MIDWEEK. WHILE IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY...ENSEMBLES INDICATE TEMPERATURES ONLY NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS DOMINATING THE PATTERN
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY HOW FAST MVFR CIGS GET INTO
JST LATER TODAY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. BASED ON LATEST SREF PROBS
AND RAP MDL OUTPUT...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 04Z-13Z
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KBFD FCST ATTM.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS FROM
KUNV SOUTHWARD THRU KAOO AND KJST.
FOCUS OF CONCERN SAT EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA...WHERE
LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS ASSOC WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KJST AND KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY KJST/KAOO.
MON...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A WARM FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
H8 RIDGE AXIS PROPOGATING FROM THE ERN GLAKS AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHILE FLATTENING
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...1030 MB SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. FAIR
SKIES WILL BE THE RULE...WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AS THE
OVERNIGHT WEARS ON. MINS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH STARTS CREEPING BACK AS A WARM FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD JUST BE RATHER MILD AND
CLOUDY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EASTWARD WHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH TO PA. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN THAT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STATE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW...IT COULD EVEN FEEL A BIT HUMID AS DEWPOINTS
CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. PWATS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH...SOME 2-3
STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. WETTEST DAY WILL BE MON...WITH QPF
AROUND 0.25 POSS UP TO 0.50 INCHES.
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER WHICH...THE MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ULTIMATELY
DELIVERING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A MORE POTENT LOW WITH COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A COOLER NW FLOW
REGIME FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SNOWFLAKES...ESPECIALLY FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY HOW FAST MVFR CIGS GET INTO
JST LATER TODAY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. BASED ON LATEST SREF PROBS
AND RAP MDL OUTPUT...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 04Z-13Z
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KBFD FCST ATTM.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS FROM
KUNV SOUTHWARD THRU KAOO AND KJST.
FOCUS OF CONCERN SAT EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA...WHERE
LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS ASSOC WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KJST AND KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY KJST/KAOO.
MON...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
CLIMATE...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1027 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A WARM FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
H8 RIDGE AXIS PROPOGATING FROM THE ERN GLAKS AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHILE FLATTENING
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...1030 MB SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. FAIR
SKIES WILL BE THE RULE...WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AS THE
OVERNIGHT WEARS ON. MINS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH STARTS CREEPING BACK AS A WARM FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD JUST BE RATHER MILD AND
CLOUDY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EASTWARD WHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH TO PA. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN THAT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STATE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW...IT COULD EVEN FEEL A BIT HUMID AS DEWPOINTS
CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. PWATS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH...SOME 2-3
STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. WETTEST DAY WILL BE MON...WITH QPF
AROUND 0.25 POSS UP TO 0.50 INCHES.
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER WHICH...THE MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ULTIMATELY
DELIVERING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A MORE POTENT LOW WITH COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A COOLER NW FLOW
REGIME FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SNOWFLAKES...ESPECIALLY FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. BASED ON LATEST SREF PROBS
AND RAP MDL OUTPUT...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 04Z-13Z
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KBFD FCST ATTM.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS FROM
KUNV SOUTHWARD THRU KAOO AND KJST.
FOCUS OF CONCERN SAT EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA...WHERE
LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS ASSOC WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KJST AND KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY KJST/KAOO.
MON...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
* HARRISBURG SMASHED THEIR REC MAX OF 72 YESTERDAY WITH A 79
DEGREE READING AT 534 PM. THE OLD RECORD WAS SET IN 2006.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
923 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A WARM FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
H8 RIDGE AXIS PROPOGATING FROM THE ERN GLAKS AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHILE FLATTENING
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...1030 MB SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. FAIR
SKIES WILL BE THE RULE...WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AS THE
OVERNIGHT WEARS ON. MINS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH STARTS CREEPING BACK AS A WARM FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD JUST BE RATHER MILD AND
CLOUDY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EASTWARD WHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH TO PA. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN THAT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STATE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW...IT COULD EVEN FEEL A BIT HUMID AS DEWPOINTS
CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. PWATS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH...SOME 2-3
STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. WETTEST DAY WILL BE MON...WITH QPF
AROUND 0.25 POSS UP TO 0.50 INCHES.
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER WHICH...THE MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ULTIMATELY
DELIVERING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A MORE POTENT LOW WITH COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A COOLER NW FLOW
REGIME FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SNOWFLAKES...ESPECIALLY FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. BASED ON LATEST SREF PROBS
AND RAP MDL OUTPUT...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 06Z-13Z
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KBFD FCST ATTM.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE BY AFTN.
FOCUS OF CONCERN SAT EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA...WHERE
LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS ASSOC WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KJST AND KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY KJST/KAOO.
MON...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
* HARRISBURG SMASHED THEIR REC MAX OF 72 YESTERDAY WITH A 79
DEGREE READING AT 534 PM. THE OLD RECORD WAS SET IN 2006.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
713 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A WARM FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
H8 RIDGE AXIS PROPOGATES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...
AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. FAIR SKIES TO START THE NIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MINS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING FROM THE
MID 20S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH STARTS CREEPING BACK AS A WARM FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD JUST BE RATHER MILD AND
CLOUDY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EASTWARD WHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH TO PA. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN THAT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STATE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW...IT COULD EVEN FEEL A BIT HUMID AS DEWPOINTS
CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. PWATS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH...SOME 2-3
STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. WETTEST DAY WILL BE MON...WITH QPF
AROUND 0.25 POSS UP TO 0.50 INCHES.
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER WHICH...THE MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ULTIMATELY
DELIVERING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A MORE POTENT LOW WITH COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A COOLER NW FLOW
REGIME FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SNOWFLAKES...ESPECIALLY FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. BASED ON LATEST SREF PROBS
AND RAP MDL OUTPUT...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 06Z-13Z
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KBFD FCST ATTM.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE BY AFTN.
FOCUS OF CONCERN SAT EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA...WHERE
LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS ASSOC WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KJST AND KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY KJST/KAOO.
MON...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
* HARRISBURG SMASHED THEIR REC MAX OF 72 YESTERDAY WITH A 79
DEGREE READING AT 534 PM. THE OLD RECORD WAS SET IN 2006.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
637 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A WARM FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
H8 RIDGE AXIS PROPOGATES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...
AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. FAIR SKIES TO START THE NIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MINS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING FROM THE
MID 20S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH STARTS CREEPING BACK AS A WARM FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD JUST BE RATHER MILD AND
CLOUDY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EASTWARD WHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH TO PA. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN THAT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STATE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW...IT COULD EVEN FEEL A BIT HUMID AS DEWPOINTS
CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. PWATS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH...SOME 2-3
STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. WETTEST DAY WILL BE MON...WITH QPF
AROUND 0.25 POSS UP TO 0.50 INCHES.
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER WHICH...THE MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ULTIMATELY
DELIVERING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A MORE POTENT LOW WITH COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A COOLER NW FLOW
REGIME FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SNOWFLAKES...ESPECIALLY FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. BASED ON LATEST SREF PROBS
AND RAP MDL OUTPUT...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 06Z-13Z
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KBFD FCST ATTM.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE BY AFTN.
FOCUS OF CONCERN SAT EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA...WHERE
LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS ASSOC WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KJST AND KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP AT NIGHT.
MON...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
* HARRISBURG SMASHED THEIR REC MAX OF 72 YESTERDAY WITH A 79
DEGREE READING AT 534 PM. THE OLD RECORD WAS SET IN 2006.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...ROSS/FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
609 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO MAKE A RETURN. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS TODAY AND SATURDAY...IT WILL STILL AVERAGE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE SECOND WEEK IN MARCH. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT LATER SATURDAY AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF
WARM AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND RAPIDLY WITH A SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED
TO BUILD EAST OUT OF THE GR LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEADING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CURRENT THICK MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE
WAY TO SUNSHINE THAT WILL BE FILTERED THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BLEED OVER THE RIDGE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...BUT
STILL ABOUT 5-10 DEG WARMER THAN NORMAL AS WE CONTINUE WITH VERY
UN-WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE END OF ASTRONOMICAL
WINTER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT RAPIDLY TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN ONCE
AGAIN AS THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE OFFERS LITTLE RESISTANCE TO MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF
STATES. THE WORDED FORECAST MAY BE A TAD TOO OPTIMISTIC REGARDING
SKY COVER GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE
FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THIN AT THE ONSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH STARTS CREEPING BACK AS A WARM FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD JUST BE RATHER MILD AND
CLOUDY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EASTWARD WHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH TO PA. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN THAT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STATE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW...IT COULD EVEN FEEL A BIT HUMID AS DEWPOINTS
CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. PWATS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH...SOME 2-3
STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. WETTEST DAY WILL BE MON...WITH QPF
AROUND 0.25 POSS UP TO 0.50 INCHES.
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER WHICH...THE MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ULTIMATELY
DELIVERING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A MORE POTENT LOW WITH COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A COOLER NW FLOW
REGIME FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SNOWFLAKES...ESPECIALLY FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. BASED ON LATEST SREF PROBS
AND RAP MDL OUTPUT...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 06Z-13Z
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KBFD FCST ATTM.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE BY AFTN.
FOCUS OF CONCERN SAT EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA...WHERE
LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS ASSOC WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KJST AND KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP AT NIGHT.
MON...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
* HARRISBURG SMASHED THEIR REC MAX OF 72 YESTERDAY WITH A 79
DEGREE READING AT 534 PM. THE OLD RECORD WAS SET IN 2006.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...ROSS/FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
602 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER
SATURDAY AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS COVERING ALL BUT AREAS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OH THROUGH NW MTNS AND INTO
UPSTATE NEW YORK...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH IS INDICATED BY AN
EXTREMELY NCFRB IN REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC.
CFROPA LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH PREV TIMING. HIGH POPS CONTINUE
UNTIL MID- 3AM...WHEN THE DRY AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS. PWATS
STILL LOOK MUCH HIGHER THAN MDL QPF WOULD INDICATE. BUT FORCING IS
VERY WEAK. INFLOW FROM THE SS/W WILL TURN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE W
THIS EVENING. THE INFLOW TO THE SERN COS IS COMING FROM A SOURCE
REGION OF 40 DEWPOINT SFC OBS. ALMOST ALL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE DONE
BY 06Z ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GUID. HRRR AND RAP ARE
HANGING ONTO THINGS A BIT LONGER SO AM LEARY TO TOTALLY CUT SHRA
OFF AT THAT POINT. BUT THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT TIMING...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO LINGER MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON THE FRINGES
OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE
SHORTLY AFTER FROPA OVERNIGHT. BUT OFF-LAKE FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE STEEP/DRASTIC SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAKE
KEEP BKN CLOUDS IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO FRI AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT THE REMAINING CLOUDS AT DAYBREAK TO BE EATEN AWAY BY THE
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOWERING INVERSION AND DAYTIME MIXING. 8H
TEMPS MAY BE CLOSE TO 0C IN THE FAR NE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE 5C OR BETTER. MIXING WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW 3500FT THO. THUS
TEMPS WILL PROB MAX OUT IN THE U40S N AND L60S S. THESE ARE STILL
10F BETTER THAN NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD IN THE
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHC FOR
SHOWERS...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED AS WELL...AS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES UP TO OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
DAYS WILL FEATURE A CHC OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES.
A RIDGE OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE 12Z GFS/GEFS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES...CENTERED ON THE
GLAKES. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT DIG THE TROUGH AS
DEEPLY...AND CREATES A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT FRIDAY.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT...LOCATED OVR KBFD AT 2245Z...WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM OBS AND NR TERM
MDL DATA SUGGEST RAIN/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT KBFD THRU AT LEAST
EARLY EVENING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY ARND 03Z AS
RAIN TAPERS OFF AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER NW FLOW ARRIVES. FURTHER
SOUTH...THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF RAIN
WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN 01Z-07Z AS PLUME OF PREFRONTAL
MOISTURE ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. ELSEWHERE...A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE CONDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/REDUCED CIGS WITH
PASSAGE OF FRONT OVERNIGHT. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY MVFR
REDUCTIONS...OCCURRING BTWN 00Z-07Z AT KIPT/KAOO/KUNV AND POSSIBLY
BTWN 05Z-09Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
DRYING NW FLOW WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDS BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
OF FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDS LIKELY OVR MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS COULD
CAUSE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST AT KBFD/KJST UNTIL LATE AM.
FRI SHOULD BE FINE FLYING WX WITH ONLY SOME BREEZY NW WINDS IN
THE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE CENTRAL MTNS. WIND LIGHTER ELSEWHERE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ONLY SLOWLY NW-SE THRU SAT...AND DRY/VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SCT SHRA MVFR POSS S/W...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON-TUE...REDUCTIONS POSS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
* HARRISBURG HAS ALREADY SMASHED THEIR REC MAX OF 72 TODAY WITH
AT LEAST A 77 AS OF 2 PM EST.
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MARCH 10TH:
HARRISBURG: 72 IN 2006 --- 77+ IN 2016
WILLIAMSPORT: 71 IN 1977
ALTOONA: 72 IN 1986
BRADFORD: 66 IN 1986
STATE COLLEGE: 72 IN 1986
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
601 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER
SATURDAY AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS COVERING ALL BUT AREAS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OH THROUGH NW MTNS AND INTO
UPSTATE NEW YORK...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH IS INDICATED BY AN
EXTREMELY NCFRB IN REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC.
CFROPA LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH PREV TIMING. HIGH POPS CONTINUE
UNTIL MID- 3AM...WHEN THE DRY AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS. PWATS
STILL LOOK MUCH HIGHER THAN MDL QPF WOULD INDICATE. BUT FORCING IS
VERY WEAK. INFLOW FROM THE SS/W WILL TURN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE W
THIS EVENING. THE INFLOW TO THE SERN COS IS COMING FROM A SOURCE
REGION OF 40 DEWPOINT SFC OBS. ALMOST ALL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE DONE
BY 06Z ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GUID. HRRR AND RAP ARE
HANGING ONTO THINGS A BIT LONGER SO AM LEARY TO TOTALLY CUT SHRA
OFF AT THAT POINT. BUT THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT TIMING...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO LINGER MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON THE FRINGES
OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE
SHORTLY AFTER FROPA OVERNIGHT. BUT OFF-LAKE FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE STEEP/DRASTIC SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAKE
KEEP BKN CLOUDS IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO FRI AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT THE REMAINING CLOUDS AT DAYBREAK TO BE EATEN AWAY BY THE
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOWERING INVERSION AND DAYTIME MIXING. 8H
TEMPS MAY BE CLOSE TO 0C IN THE FAR NE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE 5C OR BETTER. MIXING WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW 3500FT THO. THUS
TEMPS WILL PROB MAX OUT IN THE U40S N AND L60S S. THESE ARE STILL
10F BETTER THAN NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD IN THE
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHC FOR
SHOWERS...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED AS WELL...AS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES UP TO OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
DAYS WILL FEATURE A CHC OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES.
A RIDGE OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE 12Z GFS/GEFS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES...CENTERED ON THE
GLAKES. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT DIG THE TROUGH AS
DEEPLY...AND CREATES A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT FRIDAY.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIND SHIFT/CFRONT JUST PASSING THRU KTOL AND ALONG THE LONG AXIS
OF LAKE ERIE AT 18Z. RIVER OF SHOWERS STILL STUCK OVER THE FAR
NW...BUT FLOW FLATTENS OUT TO MORE W-E THRU THE EVENING. THIS
SHOULD PUSH THE SHOWERS AND FRONT INTO THE REST OF THE AREA. WIND
SHIFT WILL BE MORE GRADUAL THAN A SHARP SWING TO THE NW. MOST
PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY 03Z...WITH ONLY SOME SHRA IN THE SE AND
KJST THRU 06 OR AS LATE AS 09Z. OTHERWISE DRYING LLVL WIND WILL
START TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR RATHER EARLY
TONIGHT IN BFD AND BY MORNING EVERYWHERE ELSE. WILL CONTINUE THE
THOUGHT OF SOME IFR EARLY TONIGHT IN THE W/CENT TAFS. SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO VERY LOW CIGS IN THE S.
HOWEVER...DUJ AND BFD HAVE ALREADY IFR CIGS.
FRI SHOULD BE FINE FLYING WX WITH ONLY SOME BREEZY NW WINDS IN THE
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE CENTRAL MTNS. WIND LIGHTER ELSEWHERE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ONLY SLOWLY NW-SE THRU SAT...AND DRY/VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SCT SHRA MVFR POSS S/W...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON-TUE...REDUCTIONS POSS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
* HARRISBURG HAS ALREADY SMASHED THEIR REC MAX OF 72 TODAY WITH
AT LEAST A 77 AS OF 2 PM EST.
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MARCH 10TH:
HARRISBURG: 72 IN 2006 --- 77+ IN 2016
WILLIAMSPORT: 71 IN 1977
ALTOONA: 72 IN 1986
BRADFORD: 66 IN 1986
STATE COLLEGE: 72 IN 1986
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1149 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.AVIATION...
LATEST DATA ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD LIFR AT LBB AND PVW
IN THE COMING HOURS AS CIGS CONTINUE LOWERING. THREAT FOR DENSE
FOG IS ALSO LEGITIMATE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH GREATER IN LOW
CIGS. LIGHT RAIN AT CDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 08Z. DRIER AND GUSTY
S-SW WINDS BY MIDDAY WILL RESTORE VFR CONDITIONS FROM W-E.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS CONSIDERABLY IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS
THIS EVENING WHILE TAPERING VALUES BACK FARTHER WEST. HRRR IS
PERFORMING VERY WELL WITH THE PRESENT BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FROM
LAWTON SW TO SAN ANGELO. SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS FAVOR
THE BRUNT OF MEASURABLE RAIN FOCUSING OVER OUR SERN ZONES FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE NORTHERN END OF THIS BAND PIVOTS INTO
OUR NERN ZONES AFTER SUNSET. THE WESTERN PROGRESS OF THIS PRECIP
SHOULD BE HINDERED QUITE SEVERELY BY DEEP MOISTURE VOIDS IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS...SO WE ARE NOT OPTIMISTIC IN MEASURABLE PRECIP
MAKING IT TO THE CAPROCK OVERNIGHT.&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
PREV FORECAST DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN ACROSS FAR SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTN...WHICH IS PROVIDING RICH GULF MOISTURE AND HENCE HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR SOME OF THE GULF STATES. LOOKING CLOSER TO HOME...N-NE
SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY /15-20 MPH/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA COURTESY OF THE SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSED
BY THE UA LOW. FURTHERMORE...THE NWRN EDGE OF THE UA LOW HAS AIDED
IN STREAMING IN HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT IS STRUGGLING TO FILTER
IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS /WHERE LOWERED
CLOUD DECKS WERE NOTED/ AS SEEN VIA 21Z RADAR ANALYSIS. WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS
VERSUS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND WRN ZONES...THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BIT OF A TEMP
GRADIENT THIS AFTN /LOWER TO UPPER 60S ON THE CAPROCK VERSUS LOWER
60S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/.
THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RAINFALL SHIFTING NORTH AND WEST WITH TIME LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...WHICH COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
AND PERHAPS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER THE UL SUPPORT APPEARS
TO LOSE SOME OF ITS LUSTER WHICH EXPLAINS THE WANING SIGNAL OF THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME LIGHT DURING THIS
TIME...THUS BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NAM SHOW FOG DEVELOPING INITIALLY
JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FA AND POSSIBLY SPREAD NW THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
WRN AND NWRN ZONES COULD MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL WITH
PERHAPS A STRATUS DECK BEING THE LIKELY SCENARIO. NONETHELESS...CAN
NOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG MORE SO ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE FALLEN AND THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE CLOUD-FREE WRN ZONES
MAY HAVE A HIGHER FOG-RISK...BUT ANTICIPATED SFC WINDS VEERING TO
THE SW COULD PROVE DIFFICULT FOR THIS TO OCCUR. WHAT MAY BE A
CONCERN IS TEMPS DROPPING TO/BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES
WHICH HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST TWO DAYS.
SATURDAY...THE UA LOW WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE AND SHIFT NE TO
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE MORNING AND NEARING ERN TX BY THE AFTN.
ITS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE FLEETING WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE NERN ZONES DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTN.
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST... SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW WINDS AND
AN UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S
AND 70S. WARMEST AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE TX/NM
BORDER WHICH COULD RAISE CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM...
A SHARP AND FAST MOVING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON OUR HEELS
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WHICH
WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
THE 20-25 KT RANGE. IF THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OF THE LOW WERE TO
OCCUR 6-12 HOURS LATER DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WE WOULD PROBABLY BE
LOOKING AT A DECENT...ALBEIT SHORT LIVED...WIND EVENT. THANKFULLY
THAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE CASE. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRYING TO SPAWN
QPF ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS THE LOW PASSES. THE GFS HAS BEEN
THE LONE OPTIMISTIC WITH QPF IN TODAYS RUNS AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
REMAIN DRY. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE IN ALOFT AS THE LOW PASSES
TO OUR EAST UNTIL TUESDAY AS A DEEPER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATOON AMPLIFIES. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP MONDAY BEFORE
THE AMPLIFICATION AND WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AROUND 20-25 KTS.
THIS WILL IN TURN WARM TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S MONDAY. WEST
WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP
COOL TEMPS WHY A WHOPPING 3-5 DEGREES. THOUGH THAT WILL BE JUST A
SMALL CHANGE IN TEMPS IT WILL BE THE FIRST DOMINO TO FALL AND START
A TREND.
THOUGH MODELS HAVE DIFFERED ON TIMING THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
PUSHING A FRONT (AND WIND) INTO THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL COOL TEMPS A GREAT DEAL. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL
GREATLY DICTATE WHAT HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE NEXT THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...HIGHS LOOK TO COOL TO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY LOW 60S BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO FORECAST AS IN ADDITION TO
FROPA TIMING THERE IS THE ISSUE OF PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS
(AMONG OTHER THINGS). MODEL GUIDANCE HAS POST FRONTAL LOWS ANYWHERE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID/UPPER 20S. GIVEN HOW MUCH VEGETATION
IS BEGINNING TO COME TO LIFE WITH TREES AND CROPS BUDDING/FLOWERING
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. WHILE FREEZING TEMPS HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS WOULD BE THE
FIRST FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS SINCE GREEN UP HAS STARTED
TO OCCUR. THE OTHER UNKNOWN IS IF THE FRONT WILL BE WET OR DRY. THE
GFS SAYS IT WILL BE WET...MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE GFS HAS A LONGER PERIOD OF RETURN. FOR NOW POPS HAVE
BEEN TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. ALDRICH
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
544 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR FROM W-E TONIGHT...FIRST AT CDS AS
-RA ARRIVES AROUND 02Z-03Z...THEN PVW AND LBB AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL ENVELOP CDS THEREAFTER AS -RA
ENDS AND MOIST NELY WINDS PERSIST. LIGHT RAIN APPEARS TO FALL
SHORT OF LBB AND PVW...BUT LIGHT FOG COULD HAMPER VISBYS BEFORE
VFR UNFOLDS TOWARD NOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN ACROSS FAR SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTN...WHICH IS PROVIDING RICH GULF MOISTURE AND HENCE HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR SOME OF THE GULF STATES. LOOKING CLOSER TO HOME...N-NE
SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY /15-20 MPH/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA COURTESY OF THE SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSED
BY THE UA LOW. FURTHERMORE...THE NWRN EDGE OF THE UA LOW HAS AIDED
IN STREAMING IN HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT IS STRUGGLING TO FILTER
IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS /WHERE LOWERED
CLOUD DECKS WERE NOTED/ AS SEEN VIA 21Z RADAR ANALYSIS. WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS
VERSUS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND WRN ZONES...THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BIT OF A TEMP
GRADIENT THIS AFTN /LOWER TO UPPER 60S ON THE CAPROCK VERSUS LOWER
60S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/.
THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RAINFALL SHIFTING NORTH AND WEST WITH TIME LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...WHICH COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
AND PERHAPS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER THE UL SUPPORT APPEARS
TO LOSE SOME OF ITS LUSTER WHICH EXPLAINS THE WANING SIGNAL OF THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME LIGHT DURING THIS
TIME...THUS BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NAM SHOW FOG DEVELOPING INITIALLY
JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FA AND POSSIBLY SPREAD NW THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
WRN AND NWRN ZONES COULD MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL WITH
PERHAPS A STRATUS DECK BEING THE LIKELY SCENARIO. NONETHELESS...CAN
NOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG MORE SO ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE FALLEN AND THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE CLOUD-FREE WRN ZONES
MAY HAVE A HIGHER FOG-RISK...BUT ANTICIPATED SFC WINDS VEERING TO
THE SW COULD PROVE DIFFICULT FOR THIS TO OCCUR. WHAT MAY BE A
CONCERN IS TEMPS DROPPING TO/BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES
WHICH HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST TWO DAYS.
SATURDAY...THE UA LOW WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE AND SHIFT NE TO
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE MORNING AND NEARING ERN TX BY THE AFTN.
ITS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE FLEETING WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE NERN ZONES DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTN.
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST... SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW WINDS AND
AN UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S
AND 70S. WARMEST AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE TX/NM
BORDER WHICH COULD RAISE CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM...
A SHARP AND FAST MOVING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON OUR HEELS
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WHICH
WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
THE 20-25 KT RANGE. IF THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OF THE LOW WERE TO
OCCUR 6-12 HOURS LATER DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WE WOULD PROBABLY BE
LOOKING AT A DECENT...ALBEIT SHORT LIVED...WIND EVENT. THANKFULLY
THAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE CASE. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRYING TO SPAWN
QPF ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS THE LOW PASSES. THE GFS HAS BEEN
THE LONE OPTIMISTIC WITH QPF IN TODAYS RUNS AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
REMAIN DRY. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE IN ALOFT AS THE LOW PASSES
TO OUR EAST UNTIL TUESDAY AS A DEEPER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATOON AMPLIFIES. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP MONDAY BEFORE
THE AMPLIFICATION AND WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AROUND 20-25 KTS.
THIS WILL IN TURN WARM TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S MONDAY. WEST
WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP
COOL TEMPS WHY A WHOPPING 3-5 DEGREES. THOUGH THAT WILL BE JUST A
SMALL CHANGE IN TEMPS IT WILL BE THE FIRST DOMINO TO FALL AND START
A TREND.
THOUGH MODELS HAVE DIFFERED ON TIMING THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
PUSHING A FRONT (AND WIND) INTO THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL COOL TEMPS A GREAT DEAL. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL
GREATLY DICTATE WHAT HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE NEXT THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...HIGHS LOOK TO COOL TO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY LOW 60S BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO FORECAST AS IN ADDITION TO
FROPA TIMING THERE IS THE ISSUE OF PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS
(AMONG OTHER THINGS). MODEL GUIDANCE HAS POST FRONTAL LOWS ANYWHERE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID/UPPER 20S. GIVEN HOW MUCH VEGETATION
IS BEGINNING TO COME TO LIFE WITH TREES AND CROPS BUDDING/FLOWERING
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. WHILE FREEZING TEMPS HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS WOULD BE THE
FIRST FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS SINCE GREEN UP HAS STARTED
TO OCCUR. THE OTHER UNKNOWN IS IF THE FRONT WILL BE WET OR DRY. THE
GFS SAYS IT WILL BE WET...MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE GFS HAS A LONGER PERIOD OF RETURN. FOR NOW POPS HAVE
BEEN TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. ALDRICH
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1251 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY THIS EVENING....WHILE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONGER LOW COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
WILL REACH THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST SATURDAY...
NO RADAR RETURNS AT MIDDAY. FOG WILL BE ERODING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS CLEARING TAKES PLACE. WEDGE WEAKENS
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT BUMPED HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES. AS THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING SEEING SOME CU BUBBLING UP
BUT NOT MUCH AS IT HITS THE STABLE INVERSION. AS THE INVERSION
BREAKS THESE CU SHOULD DEVELOP MORE AND A FEW SHRA CAN BE
EXPECTED. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL
BE CONFINED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NE TN AREA. SO
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS HERE WITH VERY LOW TO NO POPS EAST.
PREVIOUS MID MORNING DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS BEEN DENSE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS
ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER THIS MORNING. SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS THROUGH MIDDAY. 12Z RNK SOUNDING IS SHOWING
SATURATION FROM 900 MB TO 700 MB. RADAR SHOWING VERY LITTLE
RETURNS.
THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON MESOSCALE
FEATURES AND RADAR DEPICTION ATTM...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS
MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A SPRINKLE IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND WESTERN CWA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...5H HEIGHTS FALL
SOME...WITH A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE TN VALLEY...CHANCE KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM SE
WV INTO THE CLINCH RIVER VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. 12Z NAM SEEMS TO BE DOING FAIRLY
GOOD JOB WITH CLOUD COVER. WEDGE SHOULD START TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SW VA/SE WV
AND NC POSSIBLE. KEPT FORECAST HIGHS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS THINKING
WITH NEAR 60 NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER LONG ISLAND AND EXTENDED SOUTH
INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA. RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY
EAST OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY TOWARD LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHERE THE SHOWERS
WILL BE TODAY...BUT THERE WERE SOME OVERALL TRENDS. THE CURRENT
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TRANSFERS TO THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF BLUEFIELD. THEN THE CHANCE
OF RAIN REMAINS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CLOUD HEIGHTS TO
LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO RISE WITH THE CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION.STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SO HAVE
STAYED WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. ANY
LOCATIONS THAT DO HAVE SOME PEAKS OF SUN WILL WARM UP MUCH MORE.
THE CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...
WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD BRING DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. DESPITE
SOME CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
CWA...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS PLACED ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES FROM WATAUGA THROUGH GREENBRIER COUNTIES. RAINFALL CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT FALLING BELOW THE 50S.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET BOOTED OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
HEADS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. INSTABILITY APPEARS MORE SIGNIFICANT
FOR MONDAY...WITH CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE GFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM RATHER LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGHOUT THE CWA...SO POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH BY
MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
OVERHEAD. THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SYNOPTIC
LIFT TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SPC RECENTLY INSERTED A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE HWO.
LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE WILL BE NOTICED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
DURING MONDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT A SMALL AREA OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THESE UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL DECAY ON
TUESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD YIELD DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MORE PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S TO THE
MID 70S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST FRIDAY...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVER THE REGION AT THE ONSET OF THIS
PERIOD. A DEEP LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS LOW AT THIS POINT DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FRIDAY FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY UNDER THE
RETURN FLOW FROM THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EST SATURDAY...
WEDGE ERODING WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SHRA WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE SE WV AREA AND
SCATTERED. AS SUCH TRY TIMING LIGHT SHOWERS TO BLF/LWB BASED ON
HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...BUT EVEN THEN SHOULD NOT BE MUCH AFFECT ON
VSBYS.
MODELS HAVE CIGS SINKING INTO MVFR AGAIN THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF WEDGE MAY SLIDE BACK TOWARD LYH/DAN BUT
OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST HERE.
STILL CONFIDENCE IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BY
MIDNIGHT. FOG IS QUESTIONABLE DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. ADDED MVFR
VSBYS AT BCB AND IFR AT BLF LATE TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY MVFR THRU
SUNDAY MORNING AT MOST SITES...THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
LIKELY TOWARD BCB BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOW ON VSBYS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FORM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. STILL APPEARS MAINLY SUB- VFR INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION. AFTER INTERVALS OF
VFR MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/RAINFALL. THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
TUESDAY WILL FIND US BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF MVFR
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR POST FRONTAL THURSDAY EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR
POSSIBLE LWB/BLF.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR TODAY. THE
FOLLOWING ARE RECORDS FOR MARCH 12.
LOCATION MAX TEMP AND YEAR
BLUEFIELD 79 IN 1990
DANVILLE 86 IN 1990
LYNCHBURG 86 IN 1990
ROANOKE 86 IN 1990
BLACKSBURG 78 IN 1990
LOCATION WARM MIN TEMP AND YEAR
BLUEFIELD60 IN 2006
DANVILLE 59 IN 2010
LYNCHBURG57 IN 1899
ROANOKE58 IN 1990
BLACKSBURG50 IN 2010
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...AMS/WP
CLIMATE...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1023 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY AS A LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS. A STRONGER LOW
COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL REACH THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM EST SATURDAY...
FOG HAS BEEN DENSE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS
ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER THIS MORNING. SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS THROUGH MIDDAY. 12Z RNK SOUNDING IS SHOWING
SATURATION FROM 900 MB TO 700 MB. RADAR SHOWING VERY LITTLE
RETURNS.
THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON MESOSCALE
FEATURES AND RADAR DEPICTION ATTM...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS
MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A SPRINKLE IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND WESTERN CWA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...5H HEIGHTS FALL
SOME...WITH A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE TN VALLEY...CHANCE KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM SE
WV INTO THE CLINCH RIVER VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. 12Z NAM SEEMS TO BE DOING FAIRLY
GOOD JOB WITH CLOUD COVER. WEDGE SHOULD START TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SW VA/SE WV
AND NC POSSIBLE. KEPT FORECAST HIGHS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS THINKING
WITH NEAR 60 NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER LONG ISLAND AND EXTENDED SOUTH
INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA. RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY
EAST OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY TOWARD LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHERE THE SHOWERS
WILL BE TODAY...BUT THERE WERE SOME OVERALL TRENDS. THE CURRENT
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TRANSFERS TO THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF BLUEFIELD. THEN THE CHANCE
OF RAIN REMAINS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CLOUD HEIGHTS TO
LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO RISE WITH THE CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION.STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SO HAVE
STAYED WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. ANY
LOCATIONS THAT DO HAVE SOME PEAKS OF SUN WILL WARM UP MUCH MORE.
THE CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...
WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD BRING DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. DESPITE
SOME CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
CWA...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS PLACED ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES FROM WATAUGA THROUGH GREENBRIER COUNTIES. RAINFALL CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT FALLING BELOW THE 50S.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET BOOTED OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
HEADS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. INSTABILITY APPEARS MORE SIGNIFICANT
FOR MONDAY...WITH CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE GFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM RATHER LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGHOUT THE CWA...SO POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH BY
MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
OVERHEAD. THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SYNOPTIC
LIFT TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SPC RECENTLY INSERTED A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE HWO.
LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE WILL BE NOTICED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
DURING MONDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT A SMALL AREA OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THESE UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL DECAY ON
TUESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD YIELD DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MORE PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S TO THE
MID 70S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST FRIDAY...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVER THE REGION AT THE ONSET OF THIS
PERIOD. A DEEP LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS LOW AT THIS POINT DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FRIDAY FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY UNDER THE
RETURN FLOW FROM THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EST SATURDAY...
CEILINGS WERE VARIABLE THIS MORNING FROM IFR ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO MVFR AND VFR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
RIDGE LINE. RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN FROM NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA INTO THE ROANOKE VALLEY. EXPECTING VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT
IN CEILINGS LATE TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION AND WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. BY THIS
AFTERNOON KLWB AND KBLF WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES.
DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE MODELS FOR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.
KEPT IN THE MVFR RANGE EXPECT FOR KBLF WITH MEDIUM TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY SUNDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FORM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. STILL APPEARS MAINLY SUB-
VFR INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW HOURS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION. AFTER INTERVALS OF
VFR MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/RAINFALL. THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
TUESDAY WILL FIND US BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF MVFR
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR TODAY. THE
FOLLOWING ARE RECORDS FOR MARCH 12.
LOCATION MAX TEMP AND YEAR
BLUEFIELD 79 IN 1990
DANVILLE 86 IN 1990
LYNCHBURG 86 IN 1990
ROANOKE 86 IN 1990
BLACKSBURG 78 IN 1990
LOCATION WARM MIN TEMP AND YEAR
BLUEFIELD60 IN 2006
DANVILLE 59 IN 2010
LYNCHBURG57 IN 1899
ROANOKE58 IN 1990
BLACKSBURG50 IN 2010
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...AMS/JH
CLIMATE...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1141 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION LATER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EST FRIDAY...
FRONT HAS DRIFTED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MSAS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINT AIR SINKING IN ACROSS THE REGION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT PER
EVENING SOUNDINGS HAS CONTINUED TO DETER ANY RAINFALL SO FAR
TONIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ESPCLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN A SLOWLY DEEPENING EAST/SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY
DEVELOPS BENEATH THE INVERSION BY DAYBREAK. THIS LIKELY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE LOW LEVEL SATURATION TO OCCUR LATE WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP REMAIN TOO WET IN
DEVELOPING PRECIP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING GIVEN
MORE WESTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO
CUT BACK POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING LOW CHANCES
FROM SW TO NE LATE. OTHERWISE EXPECTING ENOUGH CLOUDS TO KEEP
TEMPS UP MORE DESPITE DECENT TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SO RAISED
LOWS A CATEGORY OR SO MOST SPOTS OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 313 PM EST FRIDAY...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES EAST AND THEN BEGINS TO
WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND THE HIGH WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND
IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT HOWEVER...GENERALLY UNDER 0.10 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RUNNING AT LEAST 10 TO
15F ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 40S TO MID-50S AND HIGHS
SATURDAY LOW TO MID-60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL WEDGE SOUTH
INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY IN THE FAR WEST AND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...MEANWHILE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AND CREATE SOME
INSTABILITY AND A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A UPPER
TROUGH AND HEALTHY SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FORM THE WEST. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE WEST TO THE MID 50S IN THE EAST.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE COOL POOL OF AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A
RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL. THIS COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS COULD
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND. HOWEVER...SPC
DAY4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK INDICATED POTENTIAL TOO LOW FOR DAY 4
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE SHORTWAVE PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 50S IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST FRIDAY...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVER THE REGION AT THE ONSET OF THIS
PERIOD. A DEEP LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS LOW AT THIS POINT DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FRIDAY FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY UNDER THE
RETURN FLOW FROM THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EST FRIDAY...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTH BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT IN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL KEEP MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE A WHILE
LONGER. HOWEVER WEDGE DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMING EASTERLY ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO DEEPEN AND
POOL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH A
WEAK RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT LIKELY TO CAUSE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO FILL IN ESPCLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS AND OCNL MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG OR DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
WEDGE WEAKENS BUT STILL OVERALL MVFR MOST SPOTS OR WORSE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MODEL UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY LIFT OUT SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
SHOWERS THAT LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FORM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. STILL APPEARS MAINLY SUB-VFR INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF BREAKS MAINLY EAST SUNDAY MORNING THAT
COULD YIELD A FEW HOURS OF VFR.
WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/RAINFALL
BUT ALSO INTERVALS OF VFR ESPCLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS NEXT
ROUND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES.
TUESDAY WILL FIND US BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF MVFR
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE VFR GIVEN LACK OF MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...AMS/JH/PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
910 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION LATER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EST FRIDAY...
FRONT HAS DRIFTED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MSAS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINT AIR SINKING IN ACROSS THE REGION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT PER
EVENING SOUNDINGS HAS CONTINUED TO DETER ANY RAINFALL SO FAR
TONIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ESPCLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN A SLOWLY DEEPENING EAST/SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY
DEVELOPS BENEATH THE INVERSION BY DAYBREAK. THIS LIKELY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE LOW LEVEL SATURATION TO OCCUR LATE WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP REMAIN TOO WET IN
DEVELOPING PRECIP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING GIVEN
MORE WESTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO
CUT BACK POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING LOW CHANCES
FROM SW TO NE LATE. OTHERWISE EXPECTING ENOUGH CLOUDS TO KEEP
TEMPS UP MORE DESPITE DECENT TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SO RAISED
LOWS A CATEGORY OR SO MOST SPOTS OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 313 PM EST FRIDAY...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES EAST AND THEN BEGINS TO
WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND THE HIGH WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND
IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT HOWEVER...GENERALLY UNDER 0.10 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RUNNING AT LEAST 10 TO
15F ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 40S TO MID-50S AND HIGHS
SATURDAY LOW TO MID-60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL WEDGE SOUTH
INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY IN THE FAR WEST AND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...MEANWHILE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AND CREATE SOME
INSTABILITY AND A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A UPPER
TROUGH AND HEALTHY SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FORM THE WEST. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE WEST TO THE MID 50S IN THE EAST.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE COOL POOL OF AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A
RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL. THIS COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS COULD
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND. HOWEVER...SPC
DAY4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK INDICATED POTENTIAL TOO LOW FOR DAY 4
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE SHORTWAVE PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 50S IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST FRIDAY...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVER THE REGION AT THE ONSET OF THIS
PERIOD. A DEEP LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS LOW AT THIS POINT DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FRIDAY FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY UNDER THE
RETURN FLOW FROM THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM EST FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT WILL
INITIALLY ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER WEDGE DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMING EASTERLY ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO DEEPEN AND
POOL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LIKELY
TO CAUSE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
BY DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
WEDGE WEAKENS AND THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH BUT STILL OVERALL
MVFR MOST SPOTS OR WORSE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY LIFT OUT SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
SHOWERS THAT LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FORM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. STILL APPEARS MAINLY SUB-VFR INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF BREAKS MAINLY EAST SUNDAY MORNING THAT
COULD YIELD A FEW HOURS OF VFR.
WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS/RAINFALL
BUT ALSO INTERVALS OF VFR ESPCLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS NEXT
ROUND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES.
TUESDAY WILL FIND US BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF MVFR
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE VFR GIVEN LACK OF MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...AMS/JH/PC