Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/11/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
633 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
LASTS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
LOW APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE LOW EVENTUALLY
PASSING NEARBY ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
22Z ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. IN
FACT...IT CAN BE SEEN ON THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS WITH A FINE
LINE OF ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY`S. THIS BOUNDARY IS JUST MOVING
SOUTH OF ITHACA AS OF 2230Z. THE LOW ITSELF WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POP TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
ON RADAR AND FROM THE HRRR MODEL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS
EVENING ARE NORTH OF NYC CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. HIGHER POPS THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT TO
ENCOMPASS THE REST OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR AND HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING BANDS OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH ALONG THE
FRONT. BY 12Z FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING ALTHOUGH
THE RAIN COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA A FEW HOURS
BEFORE ENDING AROUND 14Z.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY/PA
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE 50S. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S...STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. LOWER 40S CAN BE EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF THE NYC METRO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY MORNING WITH ITS CENTER
SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY WITH A RETURN SW TO S
FLOW DEVELOPING. LIGHT SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEA BREEZES...KEEPING COASTAL SECTIONS COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.
MIXING TO 925MB WITH FULL SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR THOSE AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE SAT NIGHT AND
STALLS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST...FOR MOST SPOTS...THIS PROBABLY
MEANS NOTHING MORE THAN INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT WITH ECMWF AND
GFS SHOWING SOME QPF OUTPUT...HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR SOME WESTERN ZONES. LOOKS LIKE A DEVELOPING ONSHORE
FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL OFFSET RISING TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...SO HIGHS ON SUNDAY PROBABLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER WAY
OF SATURDAY`S.
A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH THEN APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SOME SHORTWAVE LIFT BRINGS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN AT LEAST TO SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. RAIN
EVENTUALLY BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER APPROACHES US
MONDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH OR AT LEAST NEARBY ON TUESDAY.
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THIS...BUT WOULD THINK THAT SOME
RAINFALL WOULD BE LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WILL
THEREFORE GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH CHC POPS ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE SHOULD THIS
WEAK LOW CENTER PASS OVERHEAD. TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND THE LOW...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND THIS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT OUR REGION. WILL GO WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING WILL WORK SLOWLY SE AND
PASS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING...FROM 06Z TO TO 09Z. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A MID LEVEL DECK GRADUALLY
LOWERING AS AXIS OF SHOWERS SLOWLY SLIDES SE ACROSS TERMINALS.
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BECOME
W/SW 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...BECOMING NW FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
VFR ON FRIDAY. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC DURING THE
DAY. GUSTS DIMINISH AFTER 18 TO 20 Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC ON FRIDAY. GUSTS MAY LINGER AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN
IN TAFS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC ON FRIDAY. GUSTS MAY LINGER AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN
IN TAFS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC ON FRIDAY. GUSTS MAY LINGER AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN
IN TAFS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING N/NW WINDS.
.SAT...VFR. SW WINDS 8 TO 12 KT...WITH AFT DEVELOPMENT OF
SOUTHERLY SEABREEZE ALONG SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS.
.SUN...VFR. EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...RAIN LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS...
ESPECIALLY DAYTIME MON. E WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT...
HIGHEST NYC METRO AND COAST.
.TUE...CHANCE OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
5-7 FT ON THE OCEAN WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON HOW FREQUENT 25 KT GUSTS WILL END UP BEING. SEAS SHOULD BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON FRIDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM 6PM TONIGHT THROUGH 6PM FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW WEAKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD.
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THEN TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT DUE TO WINDS AND
SEAS...AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND COULD SEE
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SUB-SCA CONDS OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE
WATERS. BY TUESDAY MORNING...THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES OVER OR
NEAR THE WATERS...AND WITH THE LOW FAIRLY WEAK...SEAS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE ONLY CONCERN. A LINGERING SWELL PROBABLY MAINTAINS 5 FT SEAS
ON THE OCEAN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN 1/10 AND 1/3 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...WHERE A QUARTER TO JUST OVER
A THIRD OF AN INCH OF QPF IS FORECAST.
AROUND ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS HAVE BEEN SET AT CENTRAL PARK...NEWARK...LAGUARDIA AND
ISLIP TODAY. SEE THE LOCAL RER PRODUCTS FOR ALL THE DETAILS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC/DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
949 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE OUR REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY, AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
SUNDAY, AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A COUPLE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
930 PM ESTF: ADJUSTED TEMPS AND DEWS UP A BIT TONIGHT. KEPT RAIN
CATEGORICAL NEAR 100 PCT NORTH OF I-78 BUT ELSEWHERE LEFT THE POPS
CHANCY-SCT OR ISOLATED, SNJ AND THE DELMARVA TOWARD DAWN. THERE
MAY BE WIDESPREAD TRACE AMTS S NJ. WIND GUSTS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NNJ RAISED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE MAINTAINED NEAR 35 MPH POCONOS
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF NW NJ PER HRRR AND SOME 00Z/11 NAM TRANSFER
INDICATOR.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS UPSTREAM STILL MODELED TO DRY OUT NEAR AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-95. AMTS LIGHT NEAR AND SE OF I95...TRACE TO .05
BUT NEAR AND N OF I-80 MAY SEE ISOLATED .2 TO .3 INCH TOTALS.
WHILE TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE OR WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK
OR SO...WHAT WE ENJOYED THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW ABOUT DONE FOR
QUITE SOME TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. NWLY FLOW AND CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MARK
THE END OF OUR RECORD WARMTH STRETCH. TEMPS WILL STILL BE 15F
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 70F IN SRN DE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH EXPECTED.
CLOUDS AT DAYBREAK WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SCT
STRATOCU DEVELOPING. THERE IS OFTEN A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRATOCU
HANGS ON LONGER TOWARD THE POCONOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY IN THE SATURDAY THRU THURSDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AS THE POLAR JET REMAINS DISPLACED NORTH OF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND SLOWLY EJECT NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY, IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS TO THE NORTHWEST, AS A DEEP
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES, A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
MOST OF THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE CRESTING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
APPALACHIANS AS AN OPEN WAVE MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE TUESDAY. THE MODELS DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH REGARD TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CLOSING OFF OVER THE US GREAT PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES, WHICH
LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY OVER OUR AREA WITH RESPECT TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THIS TIME.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE REGION. IT LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO DRY FOR
THE FORMATION OF FOG FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE COASTAL
AREAS, WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL ADVECT
SOME HIGHER DEW POINTS OFF THE OCEAN. AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES SATURDAY, EXPECT MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO WORK IN
ALOFT, OTHERWISE A DRY DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO
AROUND 900 HPA, WHERE TEMPS ARE AROUND 13C, SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 70.
THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR DELMARVA,
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALSO
BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUS, EXPECT COOLER TEMPS
CLOSER TO THE SHORE AND DELMARVA, OTHERWISE TEMPS SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY. POPS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY EVENING, AS THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA, AND PVA FROM THE WEST PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT. PRIOR TO
THEN, THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO ROBUST WITH PRECIP DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY, GIVEN STRONG RIDGING, SO LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO MODELED TO SETUP OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, LEADING TO A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT, WHICH WILL
LEAD PRIMARILY TO LIGHT PRECIP. HOWEVER, SOME HEAVIER PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE, WHERE ENHANCED LIFT OCCURS DUE TO A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ATTM, THE GFS PLACES THIS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95 WHEREAS THE ECMWF FAVORS DELMARVA, WITH UP TO 0.5" PRECIP
IN BOTH CASES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
FLOODING ISSUES. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE DURING THE DAY MONDAY, CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.
CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, INDICATED BY MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDICES. A CLOUDY DAY MONDAY, COMBINED
WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND ONSHORE FLOW, WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-50S TO MID-60S.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SIMILAR TO MONDAY, UP TO 0.5" PRECIP ALONG WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES. MOVING INTO
THE TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY TIME FRAME, DETAILS ARE SKETCHY AT
THIS TIME, DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY WITH A COLD FROPA.
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY, WHICH LIMITS THE CHANCE OF
PRECIP, WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FROPA THURSDAY. GIVEN THE ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS, DRASTICALLY COOLER
TEMPS ARE NOT IN THE CARDS WITH THIS FROPA.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS FOR 1-4 HOURS TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
STARTING KABE AND KRDG BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AND PROGRESSING SEWD
REACHING KMIV AROUND 09-10Z. ANY MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH
12Z/11. PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS. SW WIND SHIFTING NW WITH THE
CFP...MOST GUSTS UNDER 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVG.
FRIDAY...SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2500-3500 TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH NW WIND
GUSTS 20-25 KT...BECOMING VFR CLEAR OR FEW CLOUDS 3500 FT BY 17Z
WITH NW WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVG.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR, AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS CURRENTLY 10-15 KT OVER THE WATERS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KT. KEPT THE SCA IN EFFECT ACROSS MOST OF OUR MARINE ZONES FOR
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 25 KT
WIND GUSTS IS DECREASING BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL
STILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT BUT THERE ISN`T MUCH OF A
MIXING POTENTIAL OVER THE COLDER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETUP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
MAY LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY WITH ON TUESDAY, BUT HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NW WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 MPH, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER
THRUOUT THE DAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. MIN RH VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 PERCENT, WHICH
IS JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE OR NO RAIN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW. ANY RAIN RECEIVED TONIGHT WILL BE
LIGHT AND SHOULD DO LITTLE TO IMPROVE THESE DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE, THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES TOMORROW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 10TH WERE BROKEN AT ALL OUR CLIMATE
SITES EXCEPT AT GED AND MPO. THE RER`S ARE POSTED, INCLUDING KACY
AND KTTN WITH HIGHEST SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.
WE ONLY HAVE RER HIGH MINS FOR THE 4 PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES AND
THOSE WERE ALL REESTABLISHED TODAY.
THE RER`S THAT ARE POSTED SHOULD HAVE ALL OF TODAYS RECORDS IN
ONE FILE FOR EACH STATION.
THE TWO "CONSECUTIVE" DAYS, MARCH 9 AND 10, WITH HIGH TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE 80 IN PHILADELPHIA IS THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE. PREVIOUSLY, THE
5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS FROM MARCH 12 THROUGH MARCH 16 1990 WAS THE EARLIEST.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 949
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 949
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK 949
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/KLEIN 949
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
630 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
PERIODIC BKN STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
ABOVE 4KFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 6-11
KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING BY LATE MORNING...GUSTING
15 TO 20 KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE LATER MORNING/AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A NOW HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. STRONG SPLIT FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH ONE STREAM HEADED NORTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND A MORE DOMINANT FLOW DIVING SOUTHWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA INTO AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND ANOMALOUS
TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL NOT MAKE MUCH ZONAL OR MERIDIONAL PROGRESS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND RESULT (ALREADY IS) IN AREAS
OF SIGNIFICANT/DANGEROUS FLOODING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO HELP AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE NOW FULLY FORMED
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE EASTERN GULF/FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL ACT
AS A WALL AGAINST THE TROUGH/LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND
PROTECT OUR REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME FROM THE INCLEMENT
WEATHER OCCURRING TO OUR WEST/NW.
00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS RIDGE AND
INVERSION ONLY BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED TODAY.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED AND SEMI-
STALLED OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...WITH RIDGING BACK TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
POSITION OF THE RIDGE CENTER WILL PROVIDE A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION HAS
RESULTED IN AREAS OF BKN STATOCU (BASED ABOVE 4KFT) MOVING
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY WARM...RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE AS OF 08Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A GENERALLY BENIGN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD UNDER THE CONTROL OF STACKED RIDGING. DRY
MID-LEVELS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR
ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY. IMPRESSIVE HEIGHTS FOR EARLY/MID MARCH AND
EXCELLENT DIURNAL MIXING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MIDDLE 80S TODAY...AND PERHAPS AN EXTRA
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THURSDAY.
EVEN THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET FAIRLY WARM.
STRONG SYNOPTIC FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL MAKE SEA-BREEZE
FORMATION AND/OR INLAND PENETRATION DIFFICULT. BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING THE BOUNDARY MAKE ANY PROGRESS INLAND THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE UP TOWARD CITRUS/LEVY COUNTY IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE RIDGE AXIS.
HAVE A GREAT MID-WEEK PERIOD. ENJOY THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN THE BATTLE
OVER OUR WEATHER FOR A COUPLE DAYS FURTHER INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. DOES NOT LOOK AS THOUGH ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REENTER THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. MORE
ON THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CENTERED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH FRI WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE KEEPING
THE FORECAST WARM AND DRY. THIS RIDGING BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EAST AND SOUTHEAST SAT AS A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
STARTS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS TX...WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW AND A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF. THE CUTOFF LOW REACHES THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUN THEN THE GREAT LAKES MON...DAMPENING OUT IT DOES...DRAGGING
THE SURFACE LOW WITH IT AND SWEEPING THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE GULF. IN
THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THEN EAST TO THE KY/TN AREA.. KEEPING BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. BY TUE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WEST
INTO THE GULF WITH AN AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FL.
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH ONLY MINOR
TIMING AND LOCATIONS ISSUES ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE ARE SOME BIGGER
DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE CONUS BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT HERE. HAVE OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WITH ONLY LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST ODDS WILL BE SUN
WHEN THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. EXPECT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS MON AND MON EVENING THEN DRY. WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY DIP
SLIGHTLY THEY WILL RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT ONLY MODEST SPEEDS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STALLED OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS TO CAUTIONARY
LEVELS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE
HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OCCURRING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS
MAY AT TIMES APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 20NM DURING THESE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS. BEYOND THURSDAY THE GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STALLED OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING OUR LOCAL WEATHER DRY...WARM...AND BREEZY.
JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ON SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF
THE ATLANTIC TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD CRITICAL VALUES OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...WHICH WILL ALSO GENERALLY PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG CRITERIA DUE TO WIND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST ZONES...HOWEVER THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD EVENTS. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL DEAL WITH THE WINDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVALENT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH DAY...WITH HIGH LEVELS
OF SMOKE DISPERSION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 82 64 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 83 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 83 61 85 63 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 78 65 79 63 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 84 61 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 81 64 81 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
317 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A NOW HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. STRONG SPLIT FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH ONE STREAM HEADED NORTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND A MORE DOMINANT FLOW DIVING SOUTHWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA INTO AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND ANOMALOUS
TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL NOT MAKE MUCH ZONAL OR MERIDIONAL PROGRESS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND RESULT (ALREADY IS) IN AREAS
OF SIGNIFICANT/DANGEROUS FLOODING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO HELP AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE NOW FULLY FORMED
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE EASTERN GULF/FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL ACT
AS A WALL AGAINST THE TROUGH/LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND
PROTECT OUR REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME FROM THE INCLEMENT
WEATHER OCCURRING TO OUR WEST/NW.
00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS RIDGE AND
INVERSION ONLY BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED TODAY.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED AND SEMI-
STALLED OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...WITH RIDGING BACK TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
POSITION OF THE RIDGE CENTER WILL PROVIDE A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION HAS
RESULTED IN AREAS OF BKN STATOCU (BASED ABOVE 4KFT) MOVING
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY WARM...RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE AS OF 08Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A GENERALLY BENIGN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD UNDER THE CONTROL OF STACKED RIDGING. DRY
MID-LEVELS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR
ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY. IMPRESSIVE HEIGHTS FOR EARLY/MID MARCH AND
EXCELLENT DIURNAL MIXING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MIDDLE 80S TODAY...AND PERHAPS AN EXTRA
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THURSDAY.
EVEN THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET FAIRLY WARM.
STRONG SYNOPTIC FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL MAKE SEA-BREEZE
FORMATION AND/OR INLAND PENETRATION DIFFICULT. BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING THE BOUNDARY MAKE ANY PROGRESS INLAND THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE UP TOWARD CITRUS/LEVY COUNTY IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE RIDGE AXIS.
HAVE A GREAT MID-WEEK PERIOD. ENJOY THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN THE BATTLE
OVER OUR WEATHER FOR A COUPLE DAYS FURTHER INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. DOES NOT LOOK AS THOUGH ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REENTER THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. MORE
ON THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CENTERED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH FRI WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE KEEPING
THE FORECAST WARM AND DRY. THIS RIDGING BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EAST AND SOUTHEAST SAT AS A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
STARTS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS TX...WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW AND A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF. THE CUTOFF LOW REACHES THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUN THEN THE GREAT LAKES MON...DAMPENING OUT IT DOES...DRAGGING
THE SURFACE LOW WITH IT AND SWEEPING THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE GULF. IN
THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THEN EAST TO THE KY/TN AREA.. KEEPING BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. BY TUE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WEST
INTO THE GULF WITH AN AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FL.
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH ONLY MINOR
TIMING AND LOCATIONS ISSUES ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE ARE SOME BIGGER
DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE CONUS BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT HERE. HAVE OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WITH ONLY LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST ODDS WILL BE SUN
WHEN THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. EXPECT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS MON AND MON EVENING THEN DRY. WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY DIP
SLIGHTLY THEY WILL RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT ONLY MODEST SPEEDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. BKN- OVC
STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
4KFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASING BY LATE MORNING
TOMORROW...GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE
LATER MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STALLED OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS TO CAUTIONARY
LEVELS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE
HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OCCURRING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS
MAY AT TIMES APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 20NM DURING THESE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS. BEYOND THURSDAY THE GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STALLED OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING OUR LOCAL WEATHER DRY...WARM...AND BREEZY.
JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ON SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF
THE ATLANTIC TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD CRITICAL VALUES OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...WHICH WILL ALSO GENERALLY PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG CRITERIA DUE TO WIND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST ZONES...HOWEVER THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD EVENTS. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL DEAL WITH THE WINDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVALENT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH DAY...WITH HIGH LEVELS
OF SMOKE DISPERSION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 82 64 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 83 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 83 61 85 63 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 78 65 79 63 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 84 61 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 81 64 81 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
245 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD RESULTING IN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHICH AS RESULTED IN DIURNAL CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
REMAIN SOME HIGH CLOUDS RIDING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED AND LIMIT THE FOG THREAT BUT WOULD
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE SKY GRIDS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY ALSO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BECOME MORE
STEADY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS INCREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVENT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
BROUGHT THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
STILL REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...ALLOWING WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS SATURDAY AS THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING THE MAJORITY OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN LATE SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY TO
REFLECT MODEL TRENDS. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR WITH PWATS OF AROUND AN INCH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
A SOUTH TO WEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THEN RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP AND
PERSIST DURING THE 08Z-16Z TIME FRAME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...EVIDENT FROM THE
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. DIURNALLY INDUCED
CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ALSO POSSIBLE RIDING UP AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH
AT TIMES WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
MOS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING RESTRICTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS AFTER 08Z BUT ARE CONFLICTED ON
WHETHER IT WILL BE FOG AND/OR STRATUS. BUFKIT TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE
A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE STRATUS THAN
FOG BY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED. LEANED TOWARDS
THE MET GUIDANCE WITH BRINGING IN MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 08Z
WHILE NOT GOING AS STRONG ON THE FOG VSBYS LIKE THE LAMP WOULD
SUGGEST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND VSBYS LOWER THAN 1 MILE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING TAKING PLACE BUT THINK THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF TIME UNTIL AROUND 15-16Z THAT MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER THE
REGION DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. WINDS
WILL AGAIN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN INCREASED CHANCES OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
123 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD RESULTING IN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHICH AS RESULTED IN DIURNAL CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
REMAIN SOME HIGH CLOUDS RIDING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED AND LIMIT THE FOG THREAT BUT WOULD
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE SKY GRIDS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY ALSO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BECOME MORE
STEADY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS INCREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS DEPICT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS KEEP A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY. OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIRECT A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
INDICATED BY THE GFS AND NAM MOS. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF RECENT VERIFICATION. FOLLOWED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE GREATER UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS SHOWN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER WITH
THE TIMING COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A SOUTH
TO WEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...ECMWF... AND EKD MOS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THEN RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP AND
PERSIST DURING THE 08Z-16Z TIME FRAME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...EVIDENT FROM THE
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. DIURNALLY INDUCED
CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ALSO POSSIBLE RIDING UP AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH
AT TIMES WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
MOS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING RESTRICTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS AFTER 08Z BUT ARE CONFLICTED ON
WHETHER IT WILL BE FOG AND/OR STRATUS. BUFKIT TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE
A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE STRATUS THAN
FOG BY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED. LEANED TOWARDS
THE MET GUIDANCE WITH BRINGING IN MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 08Z
WHILE NOT GOING AS STRONG ON THE FOG VSBYS LIKE THE LAMP WOULD
SUGGEST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND VSBYS LOWER THAN 1 MILE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING TAKING PLACE BUT THINK THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF TIME UNTIL AROUND 15-16Z THAT MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER THE
REGION DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. WINDS
WILL AGAIN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN INCREASED CHANCES OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
913 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO OVERNIGHT. AS OF
04Z PRECIP WAS EXITING SE OREGON AND WILL CLEAR THE LOWER SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS
ALONG WITH S-CENTRAL ID WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS ACROSS SW IDAHO WILL BE LIGHT WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET. HAVE MADE UPDATES TO LOWER
POPS ACROSS SE OREGON ZONES AND TREASURE VALLEY FOR LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z/WED AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
WED AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4500FT MSL. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10-20KT BY 21Z/WED.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT BECOMING SW 40-55KT BY
00Z/THU /STRONGEST IN CENTRAL OREGON/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
IN THE WAKE OF A WAVE THAT DEPARTED THIS MORNING...AND IN ADVANCE
OF A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE COAST THAT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL PUSH THROUGH A DEVELOPING RIDGE TOMORROW. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...AND IT WILL ENTER
SE OREGON WED MORNING AND GET THROUGH THE MTNS OF SW IDAHO IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN OREGON. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA WED NIGHT...ALLOWING EVEN MORE MOISTURE TO ARRIVE...AND WE
WILL ENTER SW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP WILL INCREASE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF BAKER COUNTY AND THE MTNS OF SW IDAHO. THERE WILL EVEN
BE A CHANCE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY ON
THU BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
MUCH. EARLIER MODEL RUNS PUT THE TREASURE VALLEY...FOR EX...INTO
THE MID 60S ON THU. HOWEVER...MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE TRENDED
DOWNWARD...TO NEAR 60. IN THIS CASE...DUE TO STRONG SE WINDS IN
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...WE FEEL THE WARMER TEMPS ARE WARRANTED...
AND HAVE ONLY TRIMMED BACK EARLIER FORECAST MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO...LEAVING THEM IN THE MID 60S. FINALLY...THE HRRR IS
INDICATING SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING...SO WE HAVE RETAINED MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MOST
AREAS. THIS PRECIP WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAMPING
BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING IN SE OREGON AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL ON EASTERN OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN HOME. FRIDAY
NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AREA...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL RISING TO AROUND 7000
FEET. MODELS AGREE WELL ON TIMING AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW SITS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AFFECTING THE ENTIRE AREA. MONDAY
IS WHEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. GFS WANTS TO SPLIT
THE LOW IN TWO AND BUILDS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THIS LOW FURTHER EAST. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW
A SHIFT IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHIFT....FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHWEST...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES MAKING
THEM DROP DOWN TO WHAT IS CONSIDERED NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
311 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
A cold front southeast of the IL river and approaching I-55 at mid
afternoon will reach near I-72 by sunset and pass southeast of I-70
overnight, getting southeast of Lawrence county late tonight. 1008
mb surface low pressure along the northern TX/LA border to lift ne
along the front near southern tip of IL Thu morning. At mid
afternoon radar mosaic shows rain showers mainly confined to areas
south of I-70 with thunderstorms still south of IL. RAP and HRRR
models spread rain showers ne across central IL during this evening
and continue overnight, with most of the rain staying southeast of
Knox and Stark counties in our far northwest CWA. Instability
parameters limits isolated thunderstorms chances south of I-70.
Models have continued to trend further southeast with heavier qpf
tonight and half to 1 inch along and southeast of a Taylorville to
Decatur to Champaign line with the heavier amounts south of I-70,
with half to three quarter inches of rain in southeast IL Thu. So
will continue the flash flood watch along and south of I-70 thru
Thu. Lows tonight to range from the mid 40s nw of the IL river to
the upper 50s in southeast IL, which stays on the mild side of the
front until late tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Models in good agreement that the rain will be tapering off by
Thursday afternoon in southeast IL. Still looks like a prolonged
period of rain through the weekend, but again, rainfall amounts look
to be on the lower side.
By Thursday morning the cold front is expected to be just north of
the Ohio Valley, with a short wave trough axis in the eastern
Plains. The shortwave will rapidly reach central IL by Thursday
evening, resulting in only lingering showers in southeast IL. High
pressure across the Great Lakes on Friday will push the front south
of the TN Valley and produce plenty of sun and continued mild
temperatures.
An upper low moving out of Texas on Saturday will push the frontal
boundary back north resulting in overrunning rainfall spreading into
central and southeast IL. Initially could see some higher rainfall
totals as low level moisture and isentropic lift is maximized early
Saturday. However, after we get into the warm sector later in the
day Saturday through Sunday the rain will be more showery with
spotty QPF amounts. Both the GFS and European models are similar in
shifting the upper level energy through the lower Ohio Valley by
Monday afternoon, bringing an end to the rain.
By Tuesday the medium range models diverge significantly with their
solutions, having a big impact on our forecast. The GFS is very
aggressive in deepening a mid level shortwave, which then becomes
negatively tilted and lifts through the upper Midwest by Tuesday
evening. This scenario rapidly deepens a surface low and points to a
rather potent thunderstorm episode for the Midwest. The European on
the other hand is 12-18 hours slower and not as deep with the upper
low or associated surface features. For now will side with the less
aggressive European model, and slow things down by keeping the
potential for thunderstorms out of the forecast until Wednesday-Wed
evening in central/eastern IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
A cold front approaching the IL river including PIA at 18Z will
continue to slowly move southeast to near I-74 by 23-00Z. SW winds
10-15 kts and gusts of 17-22 kts ahead of this front will turn WNW
after its passage and then veer NNW tonight 4-7 kts and NNE near
10 kts Thu morning. MVFR clouds ahead of cold front could lower to
IFR 500-1k ft behind the front this afternoon and evening and then
lift back up to MVFR later tonight into THu morning with n/nw
airports of PIA and BMI going to VFR ceilings. An area of showers
south of I-70 in southern IL to spread ne across areas mainly se
of IL river during this evening and linger longest at DEC and CMI
into Thu morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ILZ062-063-
066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1158 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Updated the forecast late this morning to lower the chances of
showers over the IL river valley in nw CWA and also cool highs
a few degrees nw of the IL river especially over Knox and Stark
counties where cold front has passed through as sw winds have
turned nw. Will continue the flash flood watch southeast 8
counties along and south of I-70 from this afternoon through Thu
afternoon where 1.5 to 2 inches of rain expected, most of this
falling tonight into Thu.
Most of the rain showers this morning have been south of I-70 in
southern IL while thunderstorms are south of IL. A cold front was
slowly pushing southeast toward the IL river late this morning and
is still nw of Peru, Peoria and Quincy airports. The front has
passed se of Sterling, Galesburg and Macomb airports.
The latest forecast models slowly move cold front southeast toward
I-72 by 00z/6 pm while low pressure near the TX/LA border moves
ne along the boundary and into the mid MS river valley by 12Z/6 am
Thu. This will spread showers back north across central and
especially southeast IL during this afternoon, with highest pops
and isolated thunderstorms south of I-72 by late afternoon. Highs
to reach the mid to upper 60s along and east of the IL river while
Galesburg struggles to reach back up to 60F.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
A cold front will slowly drift into IL from the west today, reaching
near the Illinois river around Noon/18z, and along the I-55 corridor
by 6 pm/00z. A break in the rain is likely to start off the day, as
one wave departs to the northeast and the before the next shortwave
begins to affect the area this afternoon. The presence of the cold
front alone could allow for spotty showers to develop before the big
northward push of rain later this afternoon. The RAP shows a line of
light showers near the front along the Illinois river from mid to
late morning, which the HRRR also shows for one hour at 17z/11am.
The prevailing agreement in the short term models is on rain showers
overspreading our forecast area from the south later this
afternoon. Areas south of I-70 have the best chances for rain this
afternoon, with showers most likely advancing up to the I-72
corridor by sunset. The better chances of thunder would be mainly
south of I-70 this afternoon, but instability parameters are
marginal at best today. Spotty showers could develop north of I-72
before evening, but most areas north of I-72 will see dry conditions
prevail for a majority of the day. Have limited PoPs quite a bit
this morning, with many areas dry, then ramped up PoPs to
categorical this afternoon for areas along and south of I-72. A mix
of chance and slight chance PoPs were included north of I-72.
Rainfall amounts today should generally remain a quarter inch or
less, with heavier rains expected beyond today.
Warm temps are expected again today, despite little to no sunshine.
Highs will reach the low 60s near Galesburg, with mid to upper 60s
elsewhere. Wind directions and speeds will be tied to the timing and
advancement of the cold front. South winds will prevail ahead of the
cold front in the eastern half of Illinois. Along the front, winds
will become light and variable, with northwest winds behind the
front.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Have had to make some significant edits to the forecast across the
northwest part of the CWA in regards to this heavy rain event.
Evening model guidance has shifted the heavy rain focus down toward
the I-70 corridor, and the front will be down in that general
vicinity by evening. GFS suggests the area near Galesburg could be
done with the rain chances as early as this afternoon, while the
ECMWF and especially the NAM bring some light rain that far north
this evening. While I have kept likely PoP`s going across the
Illinois River valley, I reduced them to only slight chances
Thursday and went dry Thursday night/Friday in that area.
Further southeast, will be hoisting a flash flood watch for the
areas along and south of I-70 from this afternoon through Thursday
afternoon. The frontal boundary will loiter in that area overnight,
as low pressure rides northeast along the front. Greatest moisture
advection focusing on the Ohio Valley northward to about I-70, with
precipitable water values up to about 1.5 inches tonight. Tonight
and early Thursday would be the primary concern for the heaviest
rain, as the low moves through. Fly in the ointment may be the
extensive convection currently across east Texas and far southern
Arkansas, potentially interrupting some of the moisture feed into
our area. Went with near 100% PoP`s for that area tonight and
Thursday, before phasing them out during the evening.
Most of the models keep Friday and Friday evening dry, with high
pressure tracking east through the Great Lakes. Main moisture surge
will be late Friday evening and overnight, as the upper low slowly
tracks northeast out of Texas and shears out. Right now, Saturday
night and Sunday look to have the highest weekend PoP`s, as the
remnant wave moves through the area.
Temperatures to remain quite mild during the period, with the only
real cooler surge associated with the passing high pressure Thursday
night and Friday. Associated east/northeast flow may dip lows across
the far northern CWA into the upper 30s Friday morning, but
temperatures in general remain well above normal into next week.
Upper level ridging early next week will bring 850 mb temperatures
around 15C by Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
A cold front approaching the IL river including PIA at 18Z will
continue to slowly move southeast to near I-74 by 23-00Z. SW winds
10-15 kts and gusts of 17-22 kts ahead of this front will turn WNW
after its passage and then veer NNW tonight 4-7 kts and NNE near
10 kts Thu morning. MVFR clouds ahead of cold front could lower to
IFR 500-1k ft behind the front this afternoon and evening and then
lift back up to MVFR later tonight into THu morning with n/nw
airports of PIA and BMI going to VFR ceilings. An area of showers
south of I-70 in southern IL to spread ne across areas mainly se
of IL river during this evening and linger longest at DEC and CMI
into Thu morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ILZ062-063-
066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1056 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Updated the forecast late this morning to lower the chances of
showers over the IL river valley in nw CWA and also cool highs
a few degrees nw of the IL river especially over Knox and Stark
counties where cold front has passed through as sw winds have
turned nw. Will continue the flash flood watch southeast 8
counties along and south of I-70 from this afternoon through Thu
afternoon where 1.5 to 2 inches of rain expected, most of this
falling tonight into Thu.
Most of the rain showers this morning have been south of I-70 in
southern IL while thunderstorms are south of IL. A cold front was
slowly pushing southeast toward the IL river late this morning and
is still nw of Peru, Peoria and Quincy airports. The front has
passed se of Sterling, Galesburg and Macomb airports.
The latest forecast models slowly move cold front southeast toward
I-72 by 00z/6 pm while low pressure near the TX/LA border moves
ne along the boundary and into the mid MS river valley by 12Z/6 am
Thu. This will spread showers back north across central and
especially southeast IL during this afternoon, with highest pops
and isolated thunderstorms south of I-72 by late afternoon. Highs
to reach the mid to upper 60s along and east of the IL river while
Galesburg struggles to reach back up to 60F.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
A cold front will slowly drift into IL from the west today, reaching
near the Illinois river around Noon/18z, and along the I-55 corridor
by 6 pm/00z. A break in the rain is likely to start off the day, as
one wave departs to the northeast and the before the next shortwave
begins to affect the area this afternoon. The presence of the cold
front alone could allow for spotty showers to develop before the big
northward push of rain later this afternoon. The RAP shows a line of
light showers near the front along the Illinois river from mid to
late morning, which the HRRR also shows for one hour at 17z/11am.
The prevailing agreement in the short term models is on rain showers
overspreading our forecast area from the south later this
afternoon. Areas south of I-70 have the best chances for rain this
afternoon, with showers most likely advancing up to the I-72
corridor by sunset. The better chances of thunder would be mainly
south of I-70 this afternoon, but instability parameters are
marginal at best today. Spotty showers could develop north of I-72
before evening, but most areas north of I-72 will see dry conditions
prevail for a majority of the day. Have limited PoPs quite a bit
this morning, with many areas dry, then ramped up PoPs to
categorical this afternoon for areas along and south of I-72. A mix
of chance and slight chance PoPs were included north of I-72.
Rainfall amounts today should generally remain a quarter inch or
less, with heavier rains expected beyond today.
Warm temps are expected again today, despite little to no sunshine.
Highs will reach the low 60s near Galesburg, with mid to upper 60s
elsewhere. Wind directions and speeds will be tied to the timing and
advancement of the cold front. South winds will prevail ahead of the
cold front in the eastern half of Illinois. Along the front, winds
will become light and variable, with northwest winds behind the
front.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Have had to make some significant edits to the forecast across the
northwest part of the CWA in regards to this heavy rain event.
Evening model guidance has shifted the heavy rain focus down toward
the I-70 corridor, and the front will be down in that general
vicinity by evening. GFS suggests the area near Galesburg could be
done with the rain chances as early as this afternoon, while the
ECMWF and especially the NAM bring some light rain that far north
this evening. While I have kept likely PoP`s going across the
Illinois River valley, I reduced them to only slight chances
Thursday and went dry Thursday night/Friday in that area.
Further southeast, will be hoisting a flash flood watch for the
areas along and south of I-70 from this afternoon through Thursday
afternoon. The frontal boundary will loiter in that area overnight,
as low pressure rides northeast along the front. Greatest moisture
advection focusing on the Ohio Valley northward to about I-70, with
precipitable water values up to about 1.5 inches tonight. Tonight
and early Thursday would be the primary concern for the heaviest
rain, as the low moves through. Fly in the ointment may be the
extensive convection currently across east Texas and far southern
Arkansas, potentially interrupting some of the moisture feed into
our area. Went with near 100% PoP`s for that area tonight and
Thursday, before phasing them out during the evening.
Most of the models keep Friday and Friday evening dry, with high
pressure tracking east through the Great Lakes. Main moisture surge
will be late Friday evening and overnight, as the upper low slowly
tracks northeast out of Texas and shears out. Right now, Saturday
night and Sunday look to have the highest weekend PoP`s, as the
remnant wave moves through the area.
Temperatures to remain quite mild during the period, with the only
real cooler surge associated with the passing high pressure Thursday
night and Friday. Associated east/northeast flow may dip lows across
the far northern CWA into the upper 30s Friday morning, but
temperatures in general remain well above normal into next week.
Upper level ridging early next week will bring 850 mb temperatures
around 15C by Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
A dry slot in the mid levels has pushed the majority of the rain
northeast of the TAF sites. A few showers are starting to develop
just east of CMI at 12z, so a VCSH was included there through 15z.
Otherwise dry conditions should prevail until mid-afternoon at the
terminal sites, when a cold front reaches near the I-55 corridor.
Rain will become likely at all TAF sites this evening, as a low
level jet intensifies across IL, and low pressure moves from SW to
NE across the area along the cold front. A few thunderstorms will
be possible, but overall instability appears to be relatively
weak, so have not included thunder in this TAF issuance.
IFR clouds have moved into PIA ahead of the cold front, with VFR
clouds farther east over the other TAF sites. Forecast soundings
show MVFR clouds should develop this morning, but dry air aloft
could create some breaks in the low clouds before rain starts to
spread north into our forecast area.
Winds will be varying over the next 24 hours, with south to
southwest winds around 10-15 kt this morning. Then winds will
shift to the west as the cold front arrives, with winds becoming
northerly behind the front this afternoon for PIA and BMI, and
eventually CMI this evening. The front will stall across the
southern terminals of SPI and DEC, where winds will become light
and variable.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ILZ062-063-
066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
559 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
A cold front will slowly drift into IL from the west today, reaching
near the Illinois river around Noon/18z, and along the I-55 corridor
by 6 pm/00z. A break in the rain is likely to start off the day, as
one wave departs to the northeast and the before the next shortwave
begins to affect the area this afternoon. The presence of the cold
front alone could allow for spotty showers to develop before the big
northward push of rain later this afternoon. The RAP shows a line of
light showers near the front along the Illinois river from mid to
late morning, which the HRRR also shows for one hour at 17z/11am.
The prevailing agreement in the short term models is on rain showers
overspreading our forecast area from the south later this
afternoon. Areas south of I-70 have the best chances for rain this
afternoon, with showers most likely advancing up to the I-72
corridor by sunset. The better chances of thunder would be mainly
south of I-70 this afternoon, but instability parameters are
marginal at best today. Spotty showers could develop north of I-72
before evening, but most areas north of I-72 will see dry conditions
prevail for a majority of the day. Have limited PoPs quite a bit
this morning, with many areas dry, then ramped up PoPs to
categorical this afternoon for areas along and south of I-72. A mix
of chance and slight chance PoPs were included north of I-72.
Rainfall amounts today should generally remain a quarter inch or
less, with heavier rains expected beyond today.
Warm temps are expected again today, despite little to no sunshine.
Highs will reach the low 60s near Galesburg, with mid to upper 60s
elsewhere. Wind directions and speeds will be tied to the timing and
advancement of the cold front. South winds will prevail ahead of the
cold front in the eastern half of Illinois. Along the front, winds
will become light and variable, with northwest winds behind the
front.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Have had to make some significant edits to the forecast across the
northwest part of the CWA in regards to this heavy rain event.
Evening model guidance has shifted the heavy rain focus down toward
the I-70 corridor, and the front will be down in that general
vicinity by evening. GFS suggests the area near Galesburg could be
done with the rain chances as early as this afternoon, while the
ECMWF and especially the NAM bring some light rain that far north
this evening. While I have kept likely PoP`s going across the
Illinois River valley, I reduced them to only slight chances
Thursday and went dry Thursday night/Friday in that area.
Further southeast, will be hoisting a flash flood watch for the
areas along and south of I-70 from this afternoon through Thursday
afternoon. The frontal boundary will loiter in that area overnight,
as low pressure rides northeast along the front. Greatest moisture
advection focusing on the Ohio Valley northward to about I-70, with
precipitable water values up to about 1.5 inches tonight. Tonight
and early Thursday would be the primary concern for the heaviest
rain, as the low moves through. Fly in the ointment may be the
extensive convection currently across east Texas and far southern
Arkansas, potentially interrupting some of the moisture feed into
our area. Went with near 100% PoP`s for that area tonight and
Thursday, before phasing them out during the evening.
Most of the models keep Friday and Friday evening dry, with high
pressure tracking east through the Great Lakes. Main moisture surge
will be late Friday evening and overnight, as the upper low slowly
tracks northeast out of Texas and shears out. Right now, Saturday
night and Sunday look to have the highest weekend PoP`s, as the
remnant wave moves through the area.
Temperatures to remain quite mild during the period, with the only
real cooler surge associated with the passing high pressure Thursday
night and Friday. Associated east/northeast flow may dip lows across
the far northern CWA into the upper 30s Friday morning, but
temperatures in general remain well above normal into next week.
Upper level ridging early next week will bring 850 mb temperatures
around 15C by Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
A dry slot in the mid levels has pushed the majority of the rain
northeast of the TAF sites. A few showers are starting to develop
just east of CMI at 12z, so a VCSH was included there through 15z.
Otherwise dry conditions should prevail until mid-afternoon at the
terminal sites, when a cold front reaches near the I-55 corridor.
Rain will become likely at all TAF sites this evening, as a low
level jet intensifies across IL, and low pressure moves from SW to
NE across the area along the cold front. A few thunderstorms will
be possible, but overall instability appears to be relatively
weak, so have not included thunder in this TAF issuance.
IFR clouds have moved into PIA ahead of the cold front, with VFR
clouds farther east over the other TAF sites. Forecast soundings
show MVFR clouds should develop this morning, but dry air aloft
could create some breaks in the low clouds before rain starts to
spread north into our forecast area.
Winds will be varying over the next 24 hours, with south to
southwest winds around 10-15 kt this morning. Then winds will
shift to the west as the cold front arrives, with winds becoming
northerly behind the front this afternoon for PIA and BMI, and
eventually CMI this evening. The front will stall across the
southern terminals of SPI and DEC, where winds will become light
and variable.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from noon CST today through Thursday afternoon
for ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
325 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
A cold front will slowly drift into IL from the west today, reaching
near the Illinois river around Noon/18z, and along the I-55 corridor
by 6 pm/00z. A break in the rain is likely to start off the day, as
one wave departs to the northeast and the before the next shortwave
begins to affect the area this afternoon. The presence of the cold
front alone could allow for spotty showers to develop before the big
northward push of rain later this afternoon. The RAP shows a line of
light showers near the front along the Illinois river from mid to
late morning, which the HRRR also shows for one hour at 17z/11am.
The prevailing agreement in the short term models is on rain showers
overspreading our forecast area from the south later this
afternoon. Areas south of I-70 have the best chances for rain this
afternoon, with showers most likely advancing up to the I-72
corridor by sunset. The better chances of thunder would be mainly
south of I-70 this afternoon, but instability parameters are
marginal at best today. Spotty showers could develop north of I-72
before evening, but most areas north of I-72 will see dry conditions
prevail for a majority of the day. Have limited PoPs quite a bit
this morning, with many areas dry, then ramped up PoPs to
categorical this afternoon for areas along and south of I-72. A mix
of chance and slight chance PoPs were included north of I-72.
Rainfall amounts today should generally remain a quarter inch or
less, with heavier rains expected beyond today.
Warm temps are expected again today, despite little to no sunshine.
Highs will reach the low 60s near Galesburg, with mid to upper 60s
elsewhere. Wind directions and speeds will be tied to the timing and
advancement of the cold front. South winds will prevail ahead of the
cold front in the eastern half of Illinois. Along the front, winds
will become light and variable, with northwest winds behind the
front.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Have had to make some significant edits to the forecast across the
northwest part of the CWA in regards to this heavy rain event.
Evening model guidance has shifted the heavy rain focus down toward
the I-70 corridor, and the front will be down in that general
vicinity by evening. GFS suggests the area near Galesburg could be
done with the rain chances as early as this afternoon, while the
ECMWF and especially the NAM bring some light rain that far north
this evening. While I have kept likely PoP`s going across the
Illinois River valley, I reduced them to only slight chances
Thursday and went dry Thursday night/Friday in that area.
Further southeast, will be hoisting a flash flood watch for the
areas along and south of I-70 from this afternoon through Thursday
afternoon. The frontal boundary will loiter in that area overnight,
as low pressure rides northeast along the front. Greatest moisture
advection focusing on the Ohio Valley northward to about I-70, with
precipitable water values up to about 1.5 inches tonight. Tonight
and early Thursday would be the primary concern for the heaviest
rain, as the low moves through. Fly in the ointment may be the
extensive convection currently across east Texas and far southern
Arkansas, potentially interrupting some of the moisture feed into
our area. Went with near 100% PoP`s for that area tonight and
Thursday, before phasing them out during the evening.
Most of the models keep Friday and Friday evening dry, with high
pressure tracking east through the Great Lakes. Main moisture surge
will be late Friday evening and overnight, as the upper low slowly
tracks northeast out of Texas and shears out. Right now, Saturday
night and Sunday look to have the highest weekend PoP`s, as the
remnant wave moves through the area.
Temperatures to remain quite mild during the period, with the only
real cooler surge associated with the passing high pressure Thursday
night and Friday. Associated east/northeast flow may dip lows across
the far northern CWA into the upper 30s Friday morning, but
temperatures in general remain well above normal into next week.
Upper level ridging early next week will bring 850 mb temperatures
around 15C by Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
An intensifying low level jet appears to be driving a broken band
of showers from west to east across the terminal sites the next 1
to 3 hours. A dry slot has already reached SPI. Timing tools show
the back edge of the rain should reach PIA around 07z, and
eventually DEC and CMI between 08z-09z. MVFR ceilings should
accompany the rain, along with a brief period of MVFR vis to 2sm
BR during rain. Upstream observations show some IFR cloud decks
back in Missouri, so can not rule out some IFR conditions later
tonight after rain ends. Instability appears to be too weak to
create convective updrafts tonight, so have removed all mention of
thunder in this TAF issuance.
A slow moving cold front will push south into central IL tomorrow,
possibly allowing some clearing for PIA and BMI, with MVFR and
possibly IFR clouds likely remaining over the southern terminals
of SPI, DEC and CMI.
As low pressure progresses NE along the cold front later this
afternoon and tonight, rain and scattered storms will increase
coverage from south to north. SPI and DEC will have the best
chances of seeing a thunderstorm Wed evening, as the surface low
pressure comes closer to central IL.
Winds will be varying over the next 24 hours, with south winds
around 10 kt becoming SW by sunrise. Then winds will shift to the
west as the cold front arrives from the west, with winds becoming
northerly behind the front for PIA and BMI. The front will stall
across the southern terminals, where winds will become light and
variable.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from noon CST today through Thursday afternoon
for ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1203 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Updates this evening have been tied to the north-south oriented wave
of rain and isolated thunderstorms that is advancing slowly
eastward from western Illinois. The precip chances were updated to
indicate the slower eastward progression of the wave. Forecast
soundings show MUCAPES of 150-200 J/kg in our western counties,
with those conditions expanding eastward by morning. The latest HRRR
and RAP models show some drying conditions in northern IL
tomorrow, advancing southward toward I-74. Have reflected that
trend PoPs for Wed. The remainder of the forecast is generally on
track, with steady south winds at 10-15mph and lows in the upper
50s. Updated forecast info is already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Will renew the ESF product to address the heavy rains in the
forecast next few days over central and southeast IL. Will hold off
on issuing flood watch overnight into Thu morning due to latest
forecast models backing off on qpf amounts with 1st round of
precipitation tonight. 999 mb surface low pressure over northern MN
has a cold front into nw IA and central KS and this front is
expected to move east into western/nw IL around 12Z/6 am Wed. This
front interacting with increasing low level jet and moisture along
with short wave ejecting from central/southern plains ne into IL
later this evening and overnight will develop showers and scattered
thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts tonight will average a quarter to
half inch with locally higher amounts west of I-57. Breezy SSW winds
of 15-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph giving unseasonably mild
temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon with some
sunshine. Expect clouds to increase late today into this evening and
south winds of 10-20 mph tonight to only allow temps to cool into
the upper 50s overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
A heavy rain event is setting up for parts of central Illinois for
later Wednesday into Thursday, with some uncertainty as to how much
rain may occur through the weekend which may exacerbate any flooding
that does occur.
Lingering showers and t-storms from later tonight should be waning
Wednesday morning as the low level jet and moisture transport
weakens and veers toward daybreak. This could still result in a
quick 0.50 inch of rain in central IL by mid-morning.
After a brief break in the rain from late morning into early
afternoon, a low pressure center and its associated mid/upper level
support will move out of the ARKLATEX region toward the mid-
Mississippi River valley and central IL. This will combine with deep
moisture, precipitable water values in excess of 1.50" and the
increasing low level jet to produce heavy rain east of the I-55
corridor Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts
of 1.50-2.00 inches are likely in this area, with locally higher
amounts.
However, holding off on a Flash Flood Watch for now since the models
are still showing disagreement as to the location of heavy rain
potential for Wednesday night. The European model has been
consistent in showing a gradual shift east and southeast with the
heavy rain axis toward east and southeast IL, with the NAM and GFS
somewhere between the IL River and I-55 for the heavy rain axis.
Also, due to the expected lull in the rain during the day Wednesday,
and peak of rainfall holding off until Wednesday night, there is
more time to assess the situation.
A northern stream shortwave is expected to push the front and
rainfall through central and eastern IL Thursday night. A few
showers may linger in southeast IL Friday, otherwise dry conditions
will prevail with weak flow around a high pressure area moving
through the Great Lakes. The front is then expected to return
northward by Saturday as an upper level low in the Rio Grande valley
gets kicked out by a piece of energy moving across the southwestern
U.S. This will bring another round of rainfall to our region from
late Friday night through the entire weekend.
The medium range models are in fairly good agreement on this
scenario, however there are differences in the amount of rainfall
that is anticipated. The GFS is pointing toward higher rainfall
amounts in central IL than the European, particularly Saturday
night. For now will trend more toward the Euro model, but will need
to keep a close eye on this, especially if the area is inundated
from the first round of rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
An intensifying low level jet appears to be driving a broken band
of showers from west to east across the terminal sites the next 1
to 3 hours. A dry slot has already reached SPI. Timing tools show
the back edge of the rain should reach PIA around 07z, and
eventually DEC and CMI between 08z-09z. MVFR ceilings should
accompany the rain, along with a brief period of MVFR vis to 2sm
BR during rain. Upstream observations show some IFR cloud decks
back in Missouri, so can not rule out some IFR conditions later
tonight after rain ends. Instability appears to be too weak to
create convective updrafts tonight, so have removed all mention of
thunder in this TAF issuance.
A slow moving cold front will push south into central IL tomorrow,
possibly allowing some clearing for PIA and BMI, with MVFR and
possibly IFR clouds likely remaining over the southern terminals
of SPI, DEC and CMI.
As low pressure progresses NE along the cold front later this
afternoon and tonight, rain and scattered storms will increase
coverage from south to north. SPI and DEC will have the best
chances of seeing a thunderstorm Wed evening, as the surface low
pressure comes closer to central IL.
Winds will be varying over the next 24 hours, with south winds
around 10 kt becoming SW by sunrise. Then winds will shift to the
west as the cold front arrives from the west, with winds becoming
northerly behind the front for PIA and BMI. The front will stall
across the southern terminals, where winds will become light and
variable.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
946 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
ADDED PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST IL INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IA WHERE BETTER FOG SIGNAL
PRESENT IN HI-RES MODELS. MSAS SFC ANALYSIS ALSO DEPICTS WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA... ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
IL. ALSO NUDGED UP SKY COVER DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA ATTENDANT TO UPPER LEVEL JET. ALSO MONITORING
STRATUS NEAR LAKE MI. INTO THE OVERNIGHT 925 MB FLOW IS SHOWN TO
REMAIN NORTHERLY... BUT AFTER 09Z THROUGH 15Z THE FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHEAST WHICH COULD ADVECT SOME OF THIS STRATUS CLOSE IF NOT
INTO PORTIONS OF BUREAU...PUTNAM AND WHITESIDE COUNTIES. BUT RIGHT
NOW THE CHANCES LOOK SLIM WITH RAP AND NAM SUGGESTING WIND SPEEDS
5-10 KTS... WHICH TYPICALLY NEED CLOSER TO 15 KTS OR BETTER FOR
IMPACT. MORE FAVORED SCENARIO MAY BE STRATUS FORMATION IN THESE
SAME AREAS... BUT 00Z DVN RAOB IS FAIRLY DRY AND SO NOT SURE WILL
SEE EVEN THIS OCCUR. BOTTOM LINE IS INCREASED FOR CIRRUS BUT
OVERALL MAINTAINED MAINLY CLEAR WORDING. TEMPS JUST TWEAKED MAINLY
IN FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE DOWN IN THE LOWER
30S IF NOT AROUND 30 IN A FEW SPOTS.
MCCLURE
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
H5 WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LEAD TO
CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH SW FROM THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH BROKE UP
LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED IN THE AREA WILL
LEAD TO NO CHANCES OF POPS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THAT ON FRIDAY...CLEAR
SKIES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GEM AND GFS ARE COOLER WITH TEMPS TOMORROW...THINK THAT
THEY ARE TRYING TO HAVE THE LAKE COOL DOWN THE AIRMASS TOO MUCH.
DECIDED THAT THE ECMWF/MOSGUIDE LOOKED CORRECT SO WENT WITH THE
60S TOMORROW. COULD SEE TEMPS GET HIGHER ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET
GOOD MIXING FROM THE SUNLIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
A VERY BUSY EXTENDED FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE MIDWEST...WITH
GROWING CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD RAINS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CUT OFF AND FLOODING THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
REMAIN CUT OFF THROUGH FRIDAY....BEFORE PHASING BACK INTO THE FLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS PROCESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE EXACT
TRACK OF HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN IS NOT YET KNOW...AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED IN ALL CWA AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
POPS ARE APPROACHING CATEGORICAL LEVELS FOR THIS REASON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD...AS THE ALREADY MILD AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS NOT
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUD FORMATION UNTIL AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE RAINY AND SHOWERY LATE WEEKEND...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL SEE TRANSITION TO ANOTHER QUICK MOVING STORM. THIS STORM IS
WIDELY DIFFERENT IN MODEL FORECASTS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A NORTHERN
SOLUTION WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY...AND
THE ECMWF REMAINING FARTHER SOUTH WITH A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. THIS
EVENT WILL BE A BLEND OF MODELS IN OUR EXTENDED FORECAST...AND DOES
NOT REPRESENT EITHER THE WARM AND DRY GFS NOR THE COOLER AND WET
ECMWF...THOUGH IN TIME WE SHOULD TREND TOWARD ONE OR THE OTHER
SOLUTIONS. BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...MUCH COOLER WEATHER LOOKS TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TO END THE
WEEK.
ERVIN
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
MAIN CHALLENGE IS FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. LOWER SFC DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY 2-6SM FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY...
WITH CID AND DBQ MOST FAVORED WHERE LOWEST DEWPT DEPRESSIONS
AROUND 10 DEGS NEAR SUNSET. OTHERWISE... HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY TONIGHT THEN EVENTUALLY S/SE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1127 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
...06Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS ON LEADING EDGE ARRIVING
A BIT FASTER...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOOKS TO TAPER OFF QUICKER WITH
BACK EDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO NORTHEAST MO. HAVE
THEREFORE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THESE TRENDS WITH HIGHEST POPS AND
GREATEST QPF THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT UNTIL FRONT PASSES. RAIN AMOUNTS
LOOK TO GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 0.1 TO 0.25 INCH WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY AROUND 0.5 INCH. HAVE ALSO LOWERED PRECIP FROM QUAD
CITIES E/SE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LATEST ARRIVING GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA... WITH SOME RAIN
CHANCES POSSIBLY INCREASING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST CWA
WITH NEXT SLUG OF MOISTURE ADVANCING NEWD ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM
THE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THEN INTO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS NOW LOOK TO BE ON TAP FOR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN THE PLAINS.
OBSERVATION AND RAP MODEL TRENDS INDICATE A NEW ROUND OF MOISTURE
AND FORCING WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SEEN WITH THE BETTER CHANCES GENERALLY SOUTH OF A FREEPORT ILLINOIS
TO SIGOURNEY IOWA LINE.
RAP AND OTHER MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO END
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
ON WEDNESDAY LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SEEN DURING THE MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF A
FREEPORT TO OTTUMWA LINE. SOUTH OF A FREEPORT TO OTTUMWA LINE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
INTERNALLY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
ENTIRE AREA BEING DRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CUTOFF LOW AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOW CUTOFF
TO THE SOUTH AND NO APPRECIABLE WAVE TO KICK IT OUT...THE MODELS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND PRODUCE PRECIP WITH THE SSW FLOW AS WAVES
TRANSVERSES THE FLOW BEFORE IT MOVES OUT. OVERALL TRENDS ARE FOR
THOSE SYSTEMS TO CLIP THE EASTERN CWA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE 18Z NAM IS STARTING TO TREND
TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE QPF OUT OF THE CWA.
THINK THAT THE 12Z GFS IS STILL TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SWATH OF QPF.
THE BULK OF THIS RAIN LOOKS TO FALL FROM ST LOUIS TO THE SOUTH SIDE
OF CHICAGO. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
RAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF
THIS TREND KEEPS UP AND MOST OF THE QPF ACTUALLY MISSES THE CWA. MY
CATEGORICAL POPS MAY BE OVERDONE WED NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE TREND THAT THE ECMWF AND GEM
ADVERTISED YESTERDAY...THE GFS FINALLY BOUGHT INTO WITH H5 RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH NO WAVE TO KICK OUT THE
CLOSED LOW OVER TX...THIS RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH TEMPS THAT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. THE NEXT WAVE
DOESNT APPROACH THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE CLOSED LOW STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE BACK NORTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ADVERTISE THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE
AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW STARTS TO ADVECT INTO OUR AREA. MY
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS LOW AS CLOSED LOWS ARE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME RAIN DURING THIS
TIME...BUT I DONT THINK IT WILL LAST THE WHOLE TIME. AS THE NEXT
WAVE HITS THE WEST COAST LATER IN THE WEEK...FORECAST SKILL SHOULD
IMPROVE FOR THIS WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LULL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS WILL START THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND LIGHT
RAIN OR SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AM.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM 07Z TO 12Z WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS. ANTICIPATE RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MAY LIFT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF MLI AND BRL
TERMINALS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
442 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXTENDING FM ARK SSW INTO NRN LA/ERN TX DOWN TOWARD FAR S TX.
WHILE THIS LARGER AREA OF STORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING DUE TO DEEP
UPR LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO...THE ACTIVITY ACRS SE TX INTO WRN/CNTL
LA HAS BEEN AIDED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A MLU-JAS-IAH LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS HAVE RANGED FM 1.5 TO NEARLY 4 INCHES ACRS NRN
JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES AND NWRN VERNON PARISH...WHILE STORM
TOTALS SINCE YESTERDAY ARE NEARLY 7.5 INCHES ACRS THE SAME REGION.
THE OVERALL SVR THREAT HAS BEEN LIMITED TODAY THANKS TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ALTHOUGH SHEAR HAS BEEN
ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE A FEW STORMS WITH ROTATION TODAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ACRS THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER TX AND HIGH PRES OFF THE SE COAST.
SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY AT SEVERAL SITES HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS MOSTLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVE AGAIN SEEN GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT VIGOROUS UPR LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES/FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MEANDERS OVER THE REGION. CURRENT HAZARDS...FLOOD
WATCH...WIND ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THIS FCST PKG WILL BE QPF OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEANED TOWARD LATEST HRRR TRENDS WHICH
SEEM TO HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB ON PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION/HIGHER
QPF. THUS...KEPT HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ACRS INTERIOR SE TX THIS
EVENING...WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN LINE WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS...AS
WELL AS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE OVERALL QPF TOTALS FM 00Z-12Z
INDICATE ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES ACRS SE TX...TRAINING OF STORMS WILL
SET UP THE POSSIBILITY OF MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. AS IS
ALSO THE CASE IN THESE SITUATIONS...IDENTIFYING THE SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CONVECTIVE FORCING AND THE TRANSLATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...WHICH CAN
IMPACT WHERE ACTUAL RAINBANDS AND TRAINING STORMS SET UP. THIS CAN
RESULT IN HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACRS THE
WRN LA PARISHES OR WEST ACRS JEFFERSON/HARDIN/TYLER OR EVEN ACRS
MULTIPLE AREAS.
FOR THURSDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BEGIN SHIFTING
EAST...PLACING MORE OF CNTL LA AND THE ACADIANA REGION UNDER THE
HEAVIEST BULLS-EYE. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES INTO FRIDAY SHOULD BANDS OF RAIN BEGIN TO TRAIN
OVER THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT RAIN CHCS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT NOT QUITE
COME TO AN END THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE LARGE UPR LOW WEAKENS
AND LIFTS OUT. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SMALL CHC FOR
RAIN TO THE EXTREME NRN ZONES. THINGS THEN LOOK TO BEGIN DRYING
OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN AN EXTENDED
FETCH OF STRONG SLY WINDS WITH EXTREMELY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...EXTENSIVE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG TO SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY...WITH THE GALE WARNINGS LOWERING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...GRADUALLY
BCMG MORE SWLY AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 68 77 67 74 / 100 100 90 80
LCH 69 77 65 74 / 80 90 80 70
LFT 71 76 67 74 / 60 100 90 80
BPT 68 77 64 76 / 100 90 80 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ052>055-073-
074.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ028-029-
031>033-042>045-052>055-074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ033-041>045-052>055-
073-074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>032.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041-
073.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ041.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215-216.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ216.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ455-475.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THURSDAY MORNING FOR GMZ430-432.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ452-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ435.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
402 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
MAJOR TO NEAR RECORD FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN EAST TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN CADDO AND BOSSIER PARISHES HAVE
RECORDED OVER 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL AS OF 8 AM CST THIS MORNING
AND IT HAS CONTINUED TO RAIN ALL DAY TODAY. MULTIPLE FLASH FLOOD
EMERGENCIES ARE IN EFFECT AND A FEW RIVER AND LAKES ARE ALREADY
EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD STAGE LEVELS.
UNFORTUNATELY...MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED.
AS OF 2130Z...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE CWA IS GENERALLY EAST OF
A LINE FROM TOLEDO BEND TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS. SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HRRR PLACES
THE AXIS ABOUT 50 MILES FARTHER WEST. LOOKING AT RADAR LOOPS OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS LOCATED
BETWEEN INTERSTATE 35 AND 45 SOUTH OF DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND MORE
STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFFSHORE BETWEEN MATAGORDA BAY AND
GALVESTON ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
WITH A NOTABLE NORTHWARD COMPONENT. UNLESS THERE IS SOME
CONVECTIVE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA OR
SOME KIND OF MCV DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THESE COMPLEXES...I AM
DOUBTFUL OF THE MORE EASTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AS
SUPPORTED BY THE ARW AND A FEW OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.
THEREFORE...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...I HAVE PLACED THE PRIMARY
AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR FROM 00Z-12Z THURSDAY...
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LUFKIN TEXAS TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS. A
DISTINCT PLUME OF HIGH PWAT VALUES...WELL OVER 2 INCHES...WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THUS...AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO
10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 2 FEET. THIS WILL ADD TO
AN ALREADY HISTORIC FLASH FLOODING EVENT. WE WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING FOR SOME TIME AFTER THIS.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE RAIN WILL NOT BE OVER.
IF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WAS NOT ENOUGH...A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER STILL EXISTS TONIGHT MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
JACKSONVILLE AND ATLANTA TEXAS...TO MAGNOLIA ARKANSAS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE CUT OFF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRAWING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN AS
A KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS
AND THEN EJECTS EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND AN INCH AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE VIGOROUS...SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE RAIN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND MORE
RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA.
/09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NCNTRL LA/SE
TX EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK N ACROSS E TX/NW LA/SW AR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION FILLS IN...IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
+TSRA CONTINUES. AS THE HEAVY RAIN SETS IN AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT...FLOODING OF RUNWAYS AND TAXIWAYS ARE
POSSIBLE. SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE THE CONVECTION DIMINISH FROM
S TO N BY MID TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY OVER E TX AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NWD AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AS IT BEGINS
TO DRIFT N INTO S TX. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS N
LA/SW AR BY AFTERNOON JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. NE
WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 22KTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
TO 7-10KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 64 72 63 73 / 100 90 80 70
MLU 66 72 65 74 / 100 100 80 70
DEQ 56 68 59 64 / 90 80 60 70
TXK 59 68 59 67 / 100 80 70 70
ELD 62 70 62 69 / 100 100 70 70
TYR 61 70 60 72 / 80 70 80 70
GGG 60 71 61 71 / 90 70 80 70
LFK 64 75 61 74 / 100 70 80 70
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1259 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.AVIATION...
CLOUDY WITH CEILINGS FROM 008 TO ABOUT 025 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE HRS FOR
SE TX AND EXTREME SW LA. TWRDS LFT AND ARA STORMS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF TILL THE EARLY EVE HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
UPDATE...
AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION HAS RAMPED
UP AGAIN THIS MORNING ACRS SE TX AND EXTREME WRN LA. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BAND OF STORMS EXTENDING FM NR HOUSTON NE ACRS
JASPER TOWARD WINNFIELD...RIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY
ACRS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING NORTHWARD. LATEST STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS INDICATE 2.5 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACRS
INTERIOR SE TX...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKES REGION. RADAR TRENDS
AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS INITIAL BAND WILL LIFT
NORTH...WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS OF STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING
NE INTO SE TX/SW LA AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FM 5 TO 8 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS NR THE SABINE RIVER. AS IS THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...IDENTIFYING THE SPECIFIC LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE ACTUAL RAINBANDS AND
TRAINING STORMS SET UP AND COULD OCCUR A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACRS
THE WRN LA PARISHES OR WEST ACRS JEFFERSON/HARDIN/TYLER OR EVEN
ACRS MULTIPLE AREAS.
ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS TODAY WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...AND ALSO
TWEAKED POPS/WX SLIGHTLY...WITH THE PRIMARY CHANGE ACRS THE
ACADIANA REGION WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN MINIMAL SO FAR.
ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST WINDS...INCORPORATING RECENT OBS
AND HI-RES GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AGAIN EXCEEDING 40 MPH. WENT AHEAD AND
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE BEAUREGARD AND VERNON
PARISHES AS WELL WHERE A FEW OBS SITE SHOWED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH.
24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
AVIATION...VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
OVER OLD MEXICO...COMBINED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING
OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF...WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY
STREAM OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOW-END MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
SOUTHERLIES...PARTICULARLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
BPT...LCH...ARA AND LFT.
23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCLUDE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF C AND SC
LA THRU 6 PM THU...AND EXTEND C AND SW PORTIONS OF FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THRU 6 PM THU. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
TIME. SIDE NOTE...SPC GIVING 40% OF WATCH BOX ISSUANCE FOR SE TX
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS MCS CONTINUES TO GROW IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A VIGOROUS UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER OLD
MEXICO/W TX THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE RIO GRAND VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TODAY. FOR
THIS...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY FURTHER INLAND.
RADAR SHOWING ONLY SCT SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BEGINNING TO
SEE THE RAINSHIELD FURTHER WEST OF WHAT WILL BE LIKELY AN ALMOST
CONTINUOUS PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OVER OUR
REGION. RUNNING THE LATEST QPF NUMBERS YIELD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 9 TO 12 INCHES
OVER SE TX/W LA. FOR C LA THRU S LA BETWEEN LFT & LCH...EXPECTING
4 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 7 TO 10 INCHES. FOR THIS...HAD TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TO INCLUDE EVANGELINE...ACADIA...JEFF DAVIS...AND EASTERN CAMERON
PARISHES.
IN ADDITION...SPC HAS AREA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA FOR ENTIRE
AREA. POSSIBLE SVR WX THREATS INCLUDE MAINLY WIND DAMAGE WITH THE
STRONG LLJ IN PLACE AND EXPECTED MCS...BUT CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF HAIL OR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CELLS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN MCS.
THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OUT AS IT
DRIFTS SLOWLY NE ACROSS N OLD MEXICO INTO TX THU THROUGH SAT. WILL
LIKELY SEE DIMINISHED CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER THU AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS BITS OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
YIELDING INTERMITTENT SHRA/TSRA THRU SAT. BY SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT NE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ARKLATEX SUN. FOR NOW...KEEPING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER INLAND SE TX/C LA DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH ALL PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF HERE BY MON AND TUE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DML
MARINE...
A VIGOROUS UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF...YIELDING AN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS IT COMBINES WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED FETCH OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...EXTENSIVE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES TO HAZARD GRIDS.
DML
COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
WATER TO PILE UP ALONG THE COAST...LEADING TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
ESPECIALLY DURING TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4.0 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES TO HAZARD GRIDS.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 67 76 66 74 / 100 100 70 70
LCH 68 76 64 74 / 100 100 60 60
LFT 70 75 66 74 / 100 100 80 60
BPT 67 75 63 76 / 100 100 60 70
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ052>055-073-
074.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ028-029-
031>033-042>045-052>055-074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ033-041>045-052>055-
073-074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>032.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041-
073.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ041.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215-216.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ216.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432-
435.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ450-452-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455.
&&
$$
AVIATION...19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1110 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION HAS RAMPED
UP AGAIN THIS MORNING ACRS SE TX AND EXTREME WRN LA. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BAND OF STORMS EXTENDING FM NR HOUSTON NE ACRS
JASPER TOWARD WINNFIELD...RIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY
ACRS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING NORTHWARD. LATEST STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS INDICATE 2.5 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACRS
INTERIOR SE TX...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKES REGION. RADAR TRENDS
AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS INITIAL BAND WILL LIFT
NORTH...WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS OF STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING
NE INTO SE TX/SW LA AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FM 5 TO 8 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS NR THE SABINE RIVER. AS IS THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...IDENTIFYING THE SPECIFIC LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE ACTUAL RAINBANDS AND
TRAINING STORMS SET UP AND COULD OCCUR A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACRS
THE WRN LA PARISHES OR WEST ACRS JEFFERSON/HARDIN/TYLER OR EVEN
ACRS MULTIPLE AREAS.
ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS TODAY WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...AND ALSO
TWEAKED POPS/WX SLIGHTLY...WITH THE PRIMARY CHANGE ACRS THE
ACADIANA REGION WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN MINIMAL SO FAR.
ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST WINDS...INCORPORATING RECENT OBS
AND HI-RES GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AGAIN EXCEEDING 40 MPH. WENT AHEAD AND
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE BEAUREGARD AND VERNON
PARISHES AS WELL WHERE A FEW OBS SITE SHOWED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
AVIATION...VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
OVER OLD MEXICO...COMBINED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING
OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF...WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY
STREAM OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOW-END MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
SOUTHERLIES...PARTICULARLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
BPT...LCH...ARA AND LFT.
23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCLUDE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF C AND SC
LA THRU 6 PM THU...AND EXTEND C AND SW PORTIONS OF FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THRU 6 PM THU. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
TIME. SIDE NOTE...SPC GIVING 40% OF WATCH BOX ISSUANCE FOR SE TX
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS MCS CONTINUES TO GROW IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A VIGOROUS UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER OLD
MEXICO/W TX THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE RIO GRAND VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TODAY. FOR
THIS...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY FURTHER INLAND.
RADAR SHOWING ONLY SCT SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BEGINNING TO
SEE THE RAINSHIELD FURTHER WEST OF WHAT WILL BE LIKELY AN ALMOST
CONTINUOUS PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OVER OUR
REGION. RUNNING THE LATEST QPF NUMBERS YIELD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 9 TO 12 INCHES
OVER SE TX/W LA. FOR C LA THRU S LA BETWEEN LFT & LCH...EXPECTING
4 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 7 TO 10 INCHES. FOR THIS...HAD TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TO INCLUDE EVANGELINE...ACADIA...JEFF DAVIS...AND EASTERN CAMERON
PARISHES.
IN ADDITION...SPC HAS AREA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA FOR ENTIRE
AREA. POSSIBLE SVR WX THREATS INCLUDE MAINLY WIND DAMAGE WITH THE
STRONG LLJ IN PLACE AND EXPECTED MCS...BUT CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF HAIL OR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CELLS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN MCS.
THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OUT AS IT
DRIFTS SLOWLY NE ACROSS N OLD MEXICO INTO TX THU THROUGH SAT. WILL
LIKELY SEE DIMINISHED CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER THU AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS BITS OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
YIELDING INTERMITTENT SHRA/TSRA THRU SAT. BY SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT NE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ARKLATEX SUN. FOR NOW...KEEPING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER INLAND SE TX/C LA DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH ALL PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF HERE BY MON AND TUE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DML
MARINE...
A VIGOROUS UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF...YIELDING AN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS IT COMBINES WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED FETCH OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...EXTENSIVE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES TO HAZARD GRIDS.
DML
COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
WATER TO PILE UP ALONG THE COAST...LEADING TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
ESPECIALLY DURING TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4.0 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES TO HAZARD GRIDS.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 67 76 66 / 100 100 100 70
LCH 75 68 76 64 / 90 100 100 60
LFT 76 70 75 66 / 50 100 100 80
BPT 74 67 75 63 / 100 100 100 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ052>055-073-
074.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ028-029-
031>033-042>045-052>055-074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ033-041>045-052>055-
073-074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>032.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041-
073.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ041.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215-216.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ216.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432-
435.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ450-452-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
401 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT AND DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE
GULF OF MAINE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT W/WARM FRONT BEING PINCHED ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AND SLOWLY LIFTING N THIS EVENING. NORTH OF THE
FRONT, TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S FROM CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE NORTHWARD
WHILE, SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE
40S AND 50S W/EVEN 60S AND 70S FOR SOUTHERN ME INTO NH. 12Z UA
ANALYSIS SHOWED A 55-65KT JET MAX FROM 700-500MBS ACROSS QUEBEC
SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE JET MAX IN CONJUNCTION
W/LOW PRES ACROSS QUEBEC & ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE STATE WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT. THE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPE OF
70 JOULES W/850-700MB LAPSE RATES OF 5.5-6.0 C/KM. HRRR 3KM SHOWED
SOME ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BORDER THIS
EVENING BUT WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. INITIALLY WAS THINKING
OF ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE NORTH AND WEST, BUT AFTER
FURTHER ASSESSMENT, DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW. THE EVENING
SHIFT CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP 0.25" CAN BE EXPECTED. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR
NORTHERN AREAS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT W/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
THEN CAA BEHIND THE COLD FROPA WILL ARRIVE AFTER ABOUT 3 AM. KEPT
AREAS OF FOG FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS W/MELTING OF THE
SNOWPACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO DOWNEAST AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING AND THEN STALLED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AS LOW PRES
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
ASSOCIATED W/THE LOW ARRIVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW 925MB TEMPS TO BE
BELOW 0C FROM HOULTON NORTHWARD WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST SHOW
READINGS WELL ABOVE 0C. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FOR PRECIP TO BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON W/NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
BEING COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. DECIDED TO BRING 60-80% INTO THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON(AROUND 4PM).
STAYED W/20-50% FROM CARIBOU TO HOULTON BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. DAYTIME TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WILL SEE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT A COOLDOWN IS IN ORDER THURSDAY
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.... MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS TEMPERATURES COOL
DOWN. WITH TEMPERATURE ALOFT COLD ENOUGH WILL USE FORECAST
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. MOST SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST INTERIOR DOWN EAST. WILL USE SNOW RATIO RUN
ON MODEL BLEND AND COBB METHOD TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO A
FULL LATITUDE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN THE
RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING A MIX OF WET SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN DUE TO TIME OF DAY WHEN THE FRONT PASSES RATHER THAN ANY
SIGNIFICANT POLAR AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THE RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY REBUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR W/AREAS OF FOG ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS
DROPPING TO IFR TONIGHT W/AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY THURSDAY
MORNING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, VFR. FOR KBGR AND KBHB, VFR
W/A PERIOD OF MVFR TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR KBGR AND KBHB THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS UP THROUGH 7 PM. SOME GUSTS STILL EXPECTED
TO HIT 25 KTS OVER THE OUTER ZONES. SEAS HAVE JUMPED TO 6-8 FT.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SHOWING
SPEEDS TO DROP OFF LATER THIS EVENING W/WINDS VEERING TO THE WSW
10-15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING BACK TO 4-6 FT. THE SCA THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT MAY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO A SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SEAS STAY UP.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK MORE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT WIND WAVE... WHICH WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST TO DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LONG PERIOD
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE WAVE SYSTEM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE WAVE GRIDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ001>006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
700 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH AREA WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD CLEAR THE SKIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND THAT SHOULD
ALLOW OUR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A STORM SYSTEM COMING AT US FROM THE PACIFIC WILL MERGE
WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL
BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. FINALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...YET
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWER BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IT WILL BRING BACK THE
COLD AIR BY THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
OUR BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW QUICKLY DO THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THE SOONER THEY DO...THE COLDER IT WILL BE
FRIDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING THAT SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF STATES AND SEE HOW MUCH OF THAT MOISTURE GETS TO MICHIGAN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SEE THE EXTEND DISCUSSION FOR THAT).
AS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS THERE ARE TWO FEATURES THAT TYPICALLY ARE
GOOD AT PURGING THEM OUT OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SKIES. THOSE WOULD
BE THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET (UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC) AND SURFACE WINDS TURN ANTICYCLONIC. BOTH OF THOSE
THINGS HAPPEN TONIGHT. CURIOUSLY IF ONE OVERLAYS THE POLAR JET
OVER THE CLOUD IMAGES ONE CAN SEE HOW AS THE UPPER JET MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA... THE LOW CLOUDS DO IN FACT CLEAR OUT (SEE NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM). THE UPPER JET CROSSES OUR AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME ANTICYCLONIC ABOUT THE
SAME TIME. BOTH THE RAP MODEL (WHICH IS MUCH SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
SKY TONIGHT) AND THE NAM...WHICH CLEARS SKIES WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT
DO SHOW THE SKIES BEING CLEAR BY MORNING. I AM THINKING SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY 3 TO 5 AM. IF NOT. OUR LOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WILL BE TO COLD.
ANYWAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY THEN MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE WESTERN SYSTEM AND THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
HEAD OUR WAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. ANY RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. AS THERE IS
TO MUCH DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE SURFACE WARM FRONT UP
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WEAKNESS
IN THE STABILITY...LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE ALL SUPPORT HIGH POPS.
WILL RAISE THE POPS AND INCREASE THE QPF FOR THIS FEATURE.
A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY. WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...PWAT VALUES
UP OVER AN INCH...AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AS THE WAVE PASSES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND. AT THIS POINT WILL INCREASE
POPS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY...SO THAT WILL BE THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST RISK FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
A PACIFIC MID LEVEL WAVE ARRIVING EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME DECENT DYNAMICS AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT NEARS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL KEEP A RISK FOR SHOWERS
GOING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AS STRATUS WITH CEILINGS 2500 TO 3000 FT AGL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT 60
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN MEANS LIGHT WINDS. THE SYSTEMS
MOVING TOWARD US SATURDAY WILL NOT HAVE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SO WINDS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG THEN EITHER. SO...BOTTOM LINE
I SEE NO HEADLINE THREAT TILL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
A HANDFULL OF RIVERS ARE STILL DEALING WITH LOWLAND FLOODING. MOST
ARE WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS. OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD PROLONG THE DURATION THAT SOME RIVERS SPEND
ABOVE BANKFULL... BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO WORSEN THE EXTENT OF
THE FLOODING.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1233 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH ERN ND/NW MN. WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM ASSOC SFC
LOW OVER MN HAS NOW LIFTED NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT HAS ALSO
LIFTED NORTH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI. ADDED MOISTURE FROM RAIN
SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY ALONG WITH INCREASED DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S OVER LINGERING SNOWPACK IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS SHORTWAVE OVER ND/MN MOVES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...
SUPPORTING UPPER JET SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL SURGE MID
LEVEL DRYING INTO THE FCST AREA...SUGGESTING MINIMAL RISK OF
ADDITIONAL PCPN. INCLUDED NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS THAT DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION (LOW CHC POPS) WILL BE OVER THE NW FCST
AREA WHERE PASSING COLD FRONT AND RESULTING WIND SHIFT TO UPSLOPE N
TO NW MAY HELP GENERATE SOME -RA OR PERHAPS -DZ OVERNIGHT. ALSO
COULD BE SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE -SHRA/-DZ OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN SSW FLOW INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT. LATEST
20Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER FAR WRN U.P.
BUT CONTINUED MID-LVL DRYING AND LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING SHOULD
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER WEST INTO THE EVENING. LINGERING LOW-LVL
MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS OVER LINGERING SNOWPACK ACROSS AREA WILL
RESULT IN PATCHY DENSE FOG SO WILL ISSUE A SPS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA.
COOLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 30S NW WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS WL STAY CLOSER TO THE MID
40S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE HALF OF FORECAST AREA WED
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING UPSLOPE SHRA SHORTLY AFT 12Z
OVER THE NW FCST...BUT OTHERWISE BUILDING RIDGE FM NORTH AND ASSOC
INCREASED DRYING AND ANTICYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME BREAKS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST LATE IN DAY UNDER LOW-LVL DIFFLUENT NE FLOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
...WARM AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...
THE 500MB RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TODAY WILL SHIFT
TO THE E COAST BY 00Z THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER
THE THE N TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CUT OFF LOW
ACROSS MEXICO. THE PROGRESSIVE N WAVE WILL ENTER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...WHICH MAY HELP SPARK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE E
09-21Z THURSDAY WITH NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR THE SFC. MIXED
PRECIP WILL BE A CONCERN IF ANYTHING DOES FALL. 850MB TEMPS ARE
HOVERING NEAR 0C AND WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
ACROSS LOWER MI...A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EXPECT THE 500MB TROUGH TO BE OVERHEAD AT 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A RIDGE
MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE CUT OFF LOW TO
OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO TX. CLOSER TO HOME...THE SFC HIGH
THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE AREA WILL SINK ACROSS LOWER MI BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST OF NE COAST SATURDAY.
LOW TRACKS ACROSS N ONTARIO INTO JAMES BAY FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR N...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY SLIDING ACROSS UPPER MI SATURDAY MORNING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE W COAST FRIDAY WILL HELP EJECT THE CUT
OFF LOW OVER TX. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LONG PROCESS THROUGH WITH
THE LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE S
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE OVERLY EXCITED GFS FROM
YESTERDAY HAS BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE BACKED BY THE ECMWF AND IDEA
THAT THE 500MB RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS UPPER MI. WHILE A SFC
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE 500MB TROUGH WILL CROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE PRECIP RETURNING TO UPPER MI AS
EARLY AS 21Z SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH
THIS SOLUTION FOR WHAT IS NOW DAY 5. CHANCE POPS COULD SHOW UP AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY OVER THE SE. THE S LOW OVER S LAKE MI BY 06Z MONDAY
LOOKS TO EXIT E...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES SWING IT ACROSS LOWER MI
MONDAY. WILL NOT GET TOO WRAPPED UP IN THIS DAY 6-7 FCST...AND WILL
GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. EXPECT SEVERAL CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD AS
FCST MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PERIOD...WITH YET ANOTHER SFC
LOW TRACKING WELL TO OUR N...ACROSS N ONTARIO/S HUDSON BAY MONDAY-
TUESDAY AS A BRIEF RIDGE MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI.
END/KF
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
DENSE FOG AT KCMX AND KSAW IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN ALONG WITH GREATER MIXING. THE CIRCULATION AROUND A
LOW DEPARTING INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL ALSO BRING LOWER CIGS INTO IWD
OVERNIGHT...PER UPSTREAM OBS. ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER WED
MORNING...NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN ENOUGH DRIER AIR FOR
CLEARING AT IWD AND SAW. HOWEVER....UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SAW WILL HELP
TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
116 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
AFTER A FRESH LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE NEARLY EVERY MODEL
INDICATES AN INTENSE BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO DRAMATICALLY RAMPED
UP POPS/WEATHER/SNOW. THINKING NOW AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES ALONG A
NARROW BAND...POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SURFACE TEMPS ARE
IN THE 32-37 RANGE BUT WITH INTENSE PRECIP RATES IT SHOULD CHANGE
FROM A LIGHT DRIZZLE/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW FOR A TIME. ROAD
TEMPERATURES MAY VERY WELL STAY WARM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION ON THE MAIN ROADS...BUT ANY UNTREATED...LESS
TRAVELED...OR ELEVATED ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK DURING THE MOST
INTENSE SNOWFALL. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THIS FALLS AS MORE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX REDUCING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN
AVAILABLE SFC OBS AND WEBCAM IMAGERY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
INTENSE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED AND
ALSO ISSUED AN SPS FOR SOUTHERN CASS AND CROW WING COUNTIES TO
GIVE A HEADS UP FOR THIS DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
ONE MORE QUICK UPDATE FOR THE POPS/WEATHER. TIGHTENED UP THE POP
GRADIENT AND INCREASED POPS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS BEST...NEARLY THE
SAME AREA AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BUT INCREASED GIVEN THE LATEST
SHORT-RANGE MODELS AND RADAR/OBS. ALSO DECIDED TO ADD DRIZZLE
WORDING ON THE PERIPHERY OF WHERE THE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS
HIGHEST GIVEN THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. OUT TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION AM A
BIT CONCERNED SOME HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FOR A BRIEF TIME...AT
THIS POINT DO NOT HAVE MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS POSSIBILITY AND UPDATE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
MINOR UPDATE TO POPS/WEATHER FOR THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE BOARD AS A BAND OF A WINTRY
MIX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE WALKER/BRAINERD LAKES AREA EAST
TO THE TWO HARBORS/TWIN PORTS AREA. WHILE PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BEGIN...THINK A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. KEPT JUST RAIN/SLEET/SNOW/FZRA
INSTEAD OF ALSO INCLUDING DRIZZLE WORDING SINCE FORCING APPEARS
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAIN...BUT WILL ADD/REPLACE WITH DRIZZLE
WORDING DEPENDING ON HOW THE PRECIP DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADDED AN AREA OF FOG IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE VISIBILITIES
RANGE FROM A QUARTER MILE TO A MILE...THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL PRECIP MOVES EAST INTO THIS
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TYPE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES VERSIONS...WERE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE MAIN AREA WILL RUN FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE TWIN PORTS AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...EXITING THE
REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A
LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION GETTING DEEP ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTALS TO BE PRESENT. WE ALSO EXPECT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING...ALTHOUGH WE DID LOWER MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ZONES. WE HAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND SOME SLEET
IN SPOTS. WE HAVE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS ALONG A LINE FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS. THERE MAY BE A
NEED TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER AS IT BECOMES CLEARER WHERE THIS BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK. KABR SHOWS STRONG RETURNS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THESE STRONGER RETURNS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH...THEN END. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE
IN CONTROL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO AROUND 50 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... WITH AN UNUSUAL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS A CLOSED 500MB CORE LOCATED
LINGERS ACROSS TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND... WHICH WILL ALLOW
QUIET WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO STALL THROUGH SATURDAY. A PASSING DRY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE 50S AND 60S... BUT PROXIMITY
AND FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON) MAY
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER BY THE LAKE.
00Z SUNDAY... THE GFS/ECMWF PREDICT THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE 500MB LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SOUTHERN DISTURBANCES TO INFILTRATE
THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE TO MOSTLY KEEP P-
TYPE IN RAIN FORM... BUT DIURNAL PATTERNS MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW MIXES
OR ALL SNOW AT TYPES TO OUR FAR NORTHERLY ZONES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
ASIDE FROM FRIDAY MORNING... MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW AND STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS A COLD SNAP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAPID SNOWMELT TO CONTINUE. IN THE EXTENDED... CPC`S 6-10 DAY, 8-14
DAY, ONE MONTH AND THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS ALL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NEAR KBRD TO
KDLH...PRODUCING LIFR CEILINGS AND WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE JUST IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES.
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
BAND OF PRECIP SHIFTING EAST AND DIMINISHING THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT.
EXPECT KHYR TO ALSO LOWER TO IFR AS THE BAND SHIFTS EAST. FOG
POSSIBLE AT ALL LOCATIONS 06Z-15Z WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 15Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 27 44 30 51 / 70 0 0 0
INL 21 46 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 27 50 31 60 / 30 0 0 0
HYR 28 47 29 57 / 40 0 0 0
ASX 27 44 28 55 / 50 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1227 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
ONE MORE QUICK UPDATE FOR THE POPS/WEATHER. TIGHTENED UP THE POP
GRADIENT AND INCREASED POPS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS BEST...NEARLY THE
SAME AREA AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BUT INCREASED GIVEN THE LATEST
SHORT-RANGE MODELS AND RADAR/OBS. ALSO DECIDED TO ADD DRIZZLE
WORDING ON THE PERIPHERY OF WHERE THE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS
HIGHEST GIVEN THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. OUT TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION AM A
BIT CONCERNED SOME HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FOR A BRIEF TIME...AT
THIS POINT DO NOT HAVE MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS POSSIBILITY AND UPDATE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
MINOR UPDATE TO POPS/WEATHER FOR THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE BOARD AS A BAND OF A WINTRY
MIX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE WALKER/BRAINERD LAKES AREA EAST
TO THE TWO HARBORS/TWIN PORTS AREA. WHILE PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BEGIN...THINK A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. KEPT JUST RAIN/SLEET/SNOW/FZRA
INSTEAD OF ALSO INCLUDING DRIZZLE WORDING SINCE FORCING APPEARS
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAIN...BUT WILL ADD/REPLACE WITH DRIZZLE
WORDING DEPENDING ON HOW THE PRECIP DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADDED AN AREA OF FOG IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE VISIBILITIES
RANGE FROM A QUARTER MILE TO A MILE...THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL PRECIP MOVES EAST INTO THIS
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TYPE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES VERSIONS...WERE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE MAIN AREA WILL RUN FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE TWIN PORTS AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...EXITING THE
REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A
LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION GETTING DEEP ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTALS TO BE PRESENT. WE ALSO EXPECT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING...ALTHOUGH WE DID LOWER MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ZONES. WE HAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND SOME SLEET
IN SPOTS. WE HAVE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS ALONG A LINE FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS. THERE MAY BE A
NEED TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER AS IT BECOMES CLEARER WHERE THIS BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK. KABR SHOWS STRONG RETURNS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THESE STRONGER RETURNS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH...THEN END. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE
IN CONTROL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO AROUND 50 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... WITH AN UNUSUAL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS A CLOSED 500MB CORE LOCATED
LINGERS ACROSS TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND... WHICH WILL ALLOW
QUIET WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO STALL THROUGH SATURDAY. A PASSING DRY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE 50S AND 60S... BUT PROXIMITY
AND FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON) MAY
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER BY THE LAKE.
00Z SUNDAY... THE GFS/ECMWF PREDICT THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE 500MB LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SOUTHERN DISTURBANCES TO INFILTRATE
THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE TO MOSTLY KEEP P-
TYPE IN RAIN FORM... BUT DIURNAL PATTERNS MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW MIXES
OR ALL SNOW AT TYPES TO OUR FAR NORTHERLY ZONES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
ASIDE FROM FRIDAY MORNING... MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW AND STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS A COLD SNAP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAPID SNOWMELT TO CONTINUE. IN THE EXTENDED... CPC`S 6-10 DAY, 8-14
DAY, ONE MONTH AND THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS ALL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NEAR KBRD TO
KDLH...PRODUCING LIFR CEILINGS AND WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE JUST IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES.
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
BAND OF PRECIP SHIFTING EAST AND DIMINISHING THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT.
EXPECT KHYR TO ALSO LOWER TO IFR AS THE BAND SHIFTS EAST. FOG
POSSIBLE AT ALL LOCATIONS 06Z-15Z WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 15Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 27 44 30 51 / 50 0 0 0
INL 21 46 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 27 50 31 60 / 10 0 0 0
HYR 28 47 29 57 / 30 0 0 0
ASX 27 44 28 55 / 40 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1126 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
ONE MORE QUICK UPDATE FOR THE POPS/WEATHER. TIGHTENED UP THE POP
GRADIENT AND INCREASED POPS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS BEST...NEARLY THE
SAME AREA AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BUT INCREASED GIVEN THE LATEST
SHORT-RANGE MODELS AND RADAR/OBS. ALSO DECIDED TO ADD DRIZZLE
WORDING ON THE PERIPHERY OF WHERE THE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS
HIGHEST GIVEN THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. OUT TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION AM A
BIT CONCERNED SOME HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FOR A BRIEF TIME...AT
THIS POINT DO NOT HAVE MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS POSSIBILITY AND UPDATE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
MINOR UPDATE TO POPS/WEATHER FOR THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE BOARD AS A BAND OF A WINTRY
MIX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE WALKER/BRAINERD LAKES AREA EAST
TO THE TWO HARBORS/TWIN PORTS AREA. WHILE PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BEGIN...THINK A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. KEPT JUST RAIN/SLEET/SNOW/FZRA
INSTEAD OF ALSO INCLUDING DRIZZLE WORDING SINCE FORCING APPEARS
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAIN...BUT WILL ADD/REPLACE WITH DRIZZLE
WORDING DEPENDING ON HOW THE PRECIP DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADDED AN AREA OF FOG IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE VISIBILITIES
RANGE FROM A QUARTER MILE TO A MILE...THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL PRECIP MOVES EAST INTO THIS
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TYPE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES VERSIONS...WERE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE MAIN AREA WILL RUN FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE TWIN PORTS AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...EXITING THE
REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A
LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION GETTING DEEP ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTALS TO BE PRESENT. WE ALSO EXPECT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING...ALTHOUGH WE DID LOWER MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ZONES. WE HAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND SOME SLEET
IN SPOTS. WE HAVE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS ALONG A LINE FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS. THERE MAY BE A
NEED TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER AS IT BECOMES CLEARER WHERE THIS BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK. KABR SHOWS STRONG RETURNS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THESE STRONGER RETURNS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH...THEN END. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE
IN CONTROL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO AROUND 50 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... WITH AN UNUSUAL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS A CLOSED 500MB CORE LOCATED
LINGERS ACROSS TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND... WHICH WILL ALLOW
QUIET WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO STALL THROUGH SATURDAY. A PASSING DRY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE 50S AND 60S... BUT PROXIMITY
AND FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON) MAY
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER BY THE LAKE.
00Z SUNDAY... THE GFS/ECMWF PREDICT THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE 500MB LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SOUTHERN DISTURBANCES TO INFILTRATE
THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE TO MOSTLY KEEP P-
TYPE IN RAIN FORM... BUT DIURNAL PATTERNS MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW MIXES
OR ALL SNOW AT TYPES TO OUR FAR NORTHERLY ZONES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
ASIDE FROM FRIDAY MORNING... MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW AND STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS A COLD SNAP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAPID SNOWMELT TO CONTINUE. IN THE EXTENDED... CPC`S 6-10 DAY, 8-14
DAY, ONE MONTH AND THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS ALL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH A FEW MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE... EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF DRIZZLE/RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVEN VERY
BRIEF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
HIB/INL/BRD... BUT VIS/CIGS WILL LIKELY PLUMMET AGAIN TONIGHT DUE
TO FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 35 27 44 30 / 60 50 0 0
INL 35 21 46 30 / 10 0 0 0
BRD 38 27 50 31 / 60 10 0 0
HYR 38 28 47 29 / 30 30 0 0
ASX 39 27 44 28 / 40 40 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MCLOVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
918 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
MINOR UPDATE TO POPS/WEATHER FOR THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE BOARD AS A BAND OF A WINTRY
MIX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE WALKER/BRAINERD LAKES AREA EAST
TO THE TWO HARBORS/TWIN PORTS AREA. WHILE PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BEGIN...THINK A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. KEPT JUST RAIN/SLEET/SNOW/FZRA
INSTEAD OF ALSO INCLUDING DRIZZLE WORDING SINCE FORCING APPEARS
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAIN...BUT WILL ADD/REPLACE WITH DRIZZLE
WORDING DEPENDING ON HOW THE PRECIP DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADDED AN AREA OF FOG IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE VISIBILITIES
RANGE FROM A QUARTER MILE TO A MILE...THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL PRECIP MOVES EAST INTO THIS
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TYPE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES VERSIONS...WERE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE MAIN AREA WILL RUN FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE TWIN PORTS AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...EXITING THE
REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A
LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION GETTING DEEP ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTALS TO BE PRESENT. WE ALSO EXPECT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING...ALTHOUGH WE DID LOWER MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ZONES. WE HAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND SOME SLEET
IN SPOTS. WE HAVE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS ALONG A LINE FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS. THERE MAY BE A
NEED TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER AS IT BECOMES CLEARER WHERE THIS BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK. KABR SHOWS STRONG RETURNS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THESE STRONGER RETURNS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH...THEN END. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE
IN CONTROL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO AROUND 50 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... WITH AN UNUSUAL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS A CLOSED 500MB CORE LOCATED
LINGERS ACROSS TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND... WHICH WILL ALLOW
QUIET WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO STALL THROUGH SATURDAY. A PASSING DRY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE 50S AND 60S... BUT PROXIMITY
AND FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON) MAY
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER BY THE LAKE.
00Z SUNDAY... THE GFS/ECMWF PREDICT THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE 500MB LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SOUTHERN DISTURBANCES TO INFILTRATE
THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE TO MOSTLY KEEP P-
TYPE IN RAIN FORM... BUT DIURNAL PATTERNS MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW MIXES
OR ALL SNOW AT TYPES TO OUR FAR NORTHERLY ZONES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
ASIDE FROM FRIDAY MORNING... MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW AND STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS A COLD SNAP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAPID SNOWMELT TO CONTINUE. IN THE EXTENDED... CPC`S 6-10 DAY, 8-14
DAY, ONE MONTH AND THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS ALL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH A FEW MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE... EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF DRIZZLE/RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVEN VERY
BRIEF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
HIB/INL/BRD... BUT VIS/CIGS WILL LIKELY PLUMMET AGAIN TONIGHT DUE
TO FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 36 27 44 30 / 50 40 0 0
INL 36 21 46 30 / 10 0 0 0
BRD 40 27 50 31 / 50 20 0 0
HYR 41 28 47 29 / 30 30 0 0
ASX 38 27 44 28 / 40 30 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MCLOVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
606 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 606 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TYPE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES VERSIONS...WERE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE MAIN AREA WILL RUN FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE TWIN PORTS AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...EXITING THE
REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A
LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION GETTING DEEP ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTALS TO BE PRESENT. WE ALSO EXPECT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING...ALTHOUGH WE DID LOWER MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ZONES. WE HAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND SOME SLEET
IN SPOTS. WE HAVE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS ALONG A LINE FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS. THERE MAY BE A
NEED TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER AS IT BECOMES CLEARER WHERE THIS BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK. KABR SHOWS STRONG RETURNS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THESE STRONGER RETURNS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH...THEN END. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE
IN CONTROL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO AROUND 50 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... WITH AN UNUSUAL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS A CLOSED 500MB CORE LOCATED
LINGERS ACROSS TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND... WHICH WILL ALLOW
QUIET WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO STALL THROUGH SATURDAY. A PASSING DRY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE 50S AND 60S... BUT PROXIMITY
AND FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON) MAY
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER BY THE LAKE.
00Z SUNDAY... THE GFS/ECMWF PREDICT THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE 500MB LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SOUTHERN DISTURBANCES TO INFILTRATE
THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE TO MOSTLY KEEP P-
TYPE IN RAIN FORM... BUT DIURNAL PATTERNS MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW MIXES
OR ALL SNOW AT TYPES TO OUR FAR NORTHERLY ZONES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
ASIDE FROM FRIDAY MORNING... MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW AND STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS A COLD SNAP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAPID SNOWMELT TO CONTINUE. IN THE EXTENDED... CPC`S 6-10 DAY, 8-14
DAY, ONE MONTH AND THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS ALL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH A FEW MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE... EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF DRIZZLE/RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVEN VERY
BRIEF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
HIB/INL/BRD... BUT VIS/CIGS WILL LIKELY PLUMMET AGAIN TONIGHT DUE
TO FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 36 27 44 30 / 50 10 0 0
INL 36 21 46 30 / 10 0 0 0
BRD 40 27 50 31 / 50 0 0 0
HYR 41 28 47 29 / 20 10 0 0
ASX 38 27 44 28 / 50 20 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MCLOVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
357 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TYPE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES VERSIONS...WERE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE MAIN AREA WILL RUN FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE TWIN PORTS AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...EXITING THE
REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A
LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION GETTING DEEP ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTALS TO BE PRESENT. WE ALSO EXPECT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING...ALTHOUGH WE DID LOWER MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ZONES. WE HAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND SOME SLEET
IN SPOTS. WE HAVE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS ALONG A LINE FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS. THERE MAY BE A
NEED TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER AS IT BECOMES CLEARER WHERE THIS BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK. KABR SHOWS STRONG RETURNS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THESE STRONGER RETURNS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH...THEN END. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE
IN CONTROL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO AROUND 50 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... WITH AN UNUSUAL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS A CLOSED 500MB CORE LOCATED
LINGERS ACROSS TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND... WHICH WILL ALLOW
QUIET WEATHER TO WITH SUNSHINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO STALL THROUGH SATURDAY. A PASSING DRY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE 50S AND 60S... BUT PROXIMITY AND
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON) MAY KEEP
TEMPS A BIT COOLER BY THE LAKE.
00Z SUNDAY... THE GFS/ECMWF PREDICT THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE 500MB LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SOUTHERN DISTURBANCES TO INFILTRATE
THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE TO MOSTLY KEEP P-
TYPE IN RAIN FORM... BUT DIURNAL PATTERNS MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW MIXES
OR ALL SNOW AT TYPES TO OUR FAR NORTHERLY ZONES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
ASIDE FROM FRIDAY MORNING... MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW AND STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS A COLD SNAP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAPID SNOWMELT TO CONTINUE. IN THE EXTENDED... CPC`S 6-10 DAY, 8-14
DAY, ONE MONTH AND THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS ALL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD..WITH SURFACE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT
LIES ROUGHLY FROM LAKE MILLE LACS TO DULUTH AS OF 05Z. ORGANIZED
PRECIP HAS MOSTLY ENDED AT ALL TAF SITES..BUT PERIOD OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT
MOST TAF SITES.
IFR CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WAVE COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTING KBRD/KHYR WED
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 36 27 44 30 / 40 10 0 0
INL 36 21 46 30 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 40 27 50 31 / 50 0 0 0
HYR 41 28 47 29 / 20 10 0 0
ASX 38 27 44 28 / 50 20 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
CLIMATE...WFO DLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS SAINT LOUIS MO
1157 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1042 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016
Have just trimmed the northern and western parts of the flash
flood watch. Latest water vapor imagery is still showing the upper
low digging over Mexico. There is still an area of showers with
some thunderstorms that will affect the area during the late
afternoon into tonight. This will be mainly in area south of I-44
in Missouri and south of I-70 in Illinois. Latest runs of the GFS
and NAM as well as the CAMS has shown that the heaviest QPF axis
has shifted just south of the CWA late tonight. If this trend
continues, we may be able further trim watch this afternoon. Rain
will end from west to east during the day tomorrow.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016
Convection well south of the area over Arkansas and northern
Louisiana is intercepting the low level jet this morning which is
keeping all of the precipitation well south of our CWFA. Models
are in pretty good agreement that any real significant rain will
likely hold off until at least sometime during the mid to late
afternoon. Some light rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two
are possible as the weak cold front currently stretching from near
Kirksville down into extreme southeast Kansas drifts down across
Central Missouri. GFS and NAM are very bullish on QPF this
afternoon along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and
I-64 in Illinois as the low level jet increases and reinvigorates
convection along the 850mb front. However...I am skeptical.
HRRR/NSSL WRF/NCEP WRF do redevelop precipitation this afternoon
in the same areas as the NAM and GFS, but the convection does not
look strong enough to account for the high QPF values of the GFS
and NAM. Additionally, the RAP`s QPF for this afternoon is not
nearly as high as the GFS and NAM which makes me want to discount
them as well. I therefore used a blend of HRRR and RAP for PoPs
today...basically chance to or slight chance for this morning,
building into likely and categorical across the southeast 1/2 to
2/3 of the CWFA. QPF was a blend of short range models, but comes
out to about 1/2 inch or less for most of the area increasing
rapidly to around 1 inch over the southern extreme of the area. No
changes to the flash flood watch at this time...though if it looks
like the latest runs of the models are going to pan out later
today and tonight, the day shift and/or evening shift tonight may
be able to pull some the northwestern counties from the watch.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016
More rain expected tonight as the models depict strong upper
level divergence over much of the area ahead of the approaching
northern stream upper level trough and in the right entrance
region of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.
Most of the models have the highest QPF shifted a little further
southeast than previous model runs with the low level jet axis
extending across the western portions of TN and KY tonight along
with the best low level moisture, and the surface front across
southeast MO and southern IL. The heaviest rainfall totals for
today through Thursday morning will be 2 to 3 inches across parts
of southeast MO and southwest IL with locally higher amounts
possible. Will continue the flash flood watch through Thursday
morning across parts of central and southeast MO and southwest IL.
The best potential for heavy rain should be south and east of STL.
Most of the rain should shift south of the forecast area Thursday
night and Friday as the front shifts south of the region and a
surface ridge moves eastward through the Great Lakes area. The
ECMWF model appears to have too much rain north of the front in
the southern portion of our forecast area, and prefer the drier
solutions of the NAM and GFS. Cooler temperatures can be expected
for Thursday night, albeit still above normal. Rain will spread
back northward through our forecast area Friday night and Saturday
as the slow moving upper level low moves into the southern Plains
and a modest southerly low level jet brings low level moisture
back northward into our area Friday night. A warm front will also
be moving northward through our area on Saturday. The threat for
rain may continue into Sunday night until the upper level low
finally opens up and lifts east of our area.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016
IFR ceilings are present along and just behind a slow moving cold
front from near KCOU to KUIN with MVFR cigs elsewhere. As drier
air slowly filters in this evening, ceilings should improve to
MVFR at both KUIN and KCOU. MVFR ceilings should last through at
least 00Z at KSTL metro TAF sites...however ceilings will
approach IFR this evening and widespread light rain should begin
around 04Z as well. Expect conditions to improve gradually by
around 12Z to MVFR.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR ceilings will last at least through
00Z...however they may drop to near IFR levels by around 04Z this
evening as light rain moves into the region. Ceilings should
improve to MVFR by around 12Z.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-
Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Bond IL-Clinton
IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-
Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAINT LOUIS MO
1103 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1042 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016
Have just trimmed the northern and western parts of the flash
flood watch. Latest water vapor imagery is still showing the upper
low digging over Mexico. There is still an area of showers with
some thunderstorms that will affect the area during the late
afternoon into tonight. This will be mainly in area south of I-44
in Missouri and south of I-70 in Illinois. Latest runs of the GFS
and NAM as well as the CAMS has shown that the heaviest QPF axis
has shifted just south of the CWA late tonight. If this trend
continues, we may be able further trim watch this afternoon. Rain
will end from west to east during the day tomorrow.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016
Convection well south of the area over Arkansas and northern
Louisiana is intercepting the low level jet this morning which is
keeping all of the precipitation well south of our CWFA. Models
are in pretty good agreement that any real significant rain will
likely hold off until at least sometime during the mid to late
afternoon. Some light rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two
are possible as the weak cold front currently stretching from near
Kirksville down into extreme southeast Kansas drifts down across
Central Missouri. GFS and NAM are very bullish on QPF this
afternoon along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and
I-64 in Illinois as the low level jet increases and reinvigorates
convection along the 850mb front. However...I am skeptical.
HRRR/NSSL WRF/NCEP WRF do redevelop precipitation this afternoon
in the same areas as the NAM and GFS, but the convection does not
look strong enough to account for the high QPF values of the GFS
and NAM. Additionally, the RAP`s QPF for this afternoon is not
nearly as high as the GFS and NAM which makes me want to discount
them as well. I therefore used a blend of HRRR and RAP for PoPs
today...basically chance to or slight chance for this morning,
building into likely and categorical across the southeast 1/2 to
2/3 of the CWFA. QPF was a blend of short range models, but comes
out to about 1/2 inch or less for most of the area increasing
rapidly to around 1 inch over the southern extreme of the area. No
changes to the flash flood watch at this time...though if it looks
like the latest runs of the models are going to pan out later
today and tonight, the day shift and/or evening shift tonight may
be able to pull some the northwestern counties from the watch.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016
More rain expected tonight as the models depict strong upper
level divergence over much of the area ahead of the approaching
northern stream upper level trough and in the right entrance
region of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.
Most of the models have the highest QPF shifted a little further
southeast than previous model runs with the low level jet axis
extending across the western portions of TN and KY tonight along
with the best low level moisture, and the surface front across
southeast MO and southern IL. The heaviest rainfall totals for
today through Thursday morning will be 2 to 3 inches across parts
of southeast MO and southwest IL with locally higher amounts
possible. Will continue the flash flood watch through Thursday
morning across parts of central and southeast MO and southwest IL.
The best potential for heavy rain should be south and east of STL.
Most of the rain should shift south of the forecast area Thursday
night and Friday as the front shifts south of the region and a
surface ridge moves eastward through the Great Lakes area. The
ECMWF model appears to have too much rain north of the front in
the southern portion of our forecast area, and prefer the drier
solutions of the NAM and GFS. Cooler temperatures can be expected
for Thursday night, albeit still above normal. Rain will spread
back northward through our forecast area Friday night and Saturday
as the slow moving upper level low moves into the southern Plains
and a modest southerly low level jet brings low level moisture
back northward into our area Friday night. A warm front will also
be moving northward through our area on Saturday. The threat for
rain may continue into Sunday night until the upper level low
finally opens up and lifts east of our area.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016
Areas of IFR ceilings and visibilities are moving thorugh central
and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois. Remainder
of the area is MVFR and VFR with some ceilings around 2500 ft and
above. Expect flight conditions to improve this morning after
sunrise, but showers and a few thunderstorms with heavy rain
possible will develop along and south of I-70 late this afternoon
and into the evening. MVFR and IFR flight conditions will
accompany the rain.
Specifics for KSTL:
Think VFR conditions will prevail this morning...but there`s a
chance the 2500-3000 ft ceilings southeast of the terminal will
move up over the terminal at some point before 15-16Z. Showers and
a few thunderstorms will overspread the terminal this afternoon.
Periods of rain with MVFR and possible IFR will continue until
Thursday morning.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-
Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Bond IL-Clinton
IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-
Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS SAINT LOUIS MO
550 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016
Convection well south of the area over Arkansas and northern
Louisiana is intercepting the low level jet this morning which is
keeping all of the precipitation well south of our CWFA. Models
are in pretty good agreement that any real significant rain will
likely hold off until at least sometime during the mid to late
afternoon. Some light rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two
are possible as the weak cold front currently stretching from near
Kirksville down into extreme southeast Kansas drifts down across
Central Missouri. GFS and NAM are very bullish on QPF this
afternoon along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and
I-64 in Illinois as the low level jet increases and reinvigorates
convection along the 850mb front. However...I am skeptical.
HRRR/NSSL WRF/NCEP WRF do redevelop precipitation this afternoon
in the same areas as the NAM and GFS, but the convection does not
look strong enough to account for the high QPF values of the GFS
and NAM. Additionally, the RAP`s QPF for this afternoon is not
nearly as high as the GFS and NAM which makes me want to discount
them as well. I therefore used a blend of HRRR and RAP for PoPs
today...basically chance to or slight chance for this morning,
building into likely and categorical across the southeast 1/2 to
2/3 of the CWFA. QPF was a blend of short range models, but comes
out to about 1/2 inch or less for most of the area increasing
rapidly to around 1 inch over the southern extreme of the area. No
changes to the flash flood watch at this time...though if it looks
like the latest runs of the models are going to pan out later
today and tonight, the day shift and/or evening shift tonight may
be able to pull some the northwestern counties from the watch.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016
More rain expected tonight as the models depict strong upper
level divergence over much of the area ahead of the approaching
northern stream upper level trough and in the right entrance
region of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.
Most of the models have the highest QPF shifted a little further
southeast than previous model runs with the low level jet axis
extending across the western portions of TN and KY tonight along
with the best low level moisture, and the surface front across
southeast MO and southern IL. The heaviest rainfall totals for
today through Thursday morning will be 2 to 3 inches across parts
of southeast MO and southwest IL with locally higher amounts
possible. Will continue the flash flood watch through Thursday
morning across parts of central and southeast MO and southwest IL.
The best potential for heavy rain should be south and east of STL.
Most of the rain should shift south of the forecast area Thursday
night and Friday as the front shifts south of the region and a
surface ridge moves eastward through the Great Lakes area. The
ECMWF model appears to have too much rain north of the front in
the southern portion of our forecast area, and prefer the drier
solutions of the NAM and GFS. Cooler temperatures can be expected
for Thursday night, albeit still above normal. Rain will spread
back northward through our forecast area Friday night and Saturday
as the slow moving upper level low moves into the southern Plains
and a modest southerly low level jet brings low level moisture
back northward into our area Friday night. A warm front will also
be moving northward through our area on Saturday. The threat for
rain may continue into Sunday night until the upper level low
finally opens up and lifts east of our area.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016
Areas of IFR ceilings and visibilities are moving thorugh central
and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois. Remainder
of the area is MVFR and VFR with some ceilings around 2500 ft and
above. Expect flight conditions to improve this morning after
sunrise, but showers and a few thunderstorms with heavy rain
possible will develop along and south of I-70 late this afternoon
and into the evening. MVFR and IFR flight conditions will
accompany the rain.
Specifics for KSTL:
Think VFR conditions will prevail this morning...but there`s a
chance the 2500-3000 ft ceilings southeast of the terminal will
move up over the terminal at some point before 15-16Z. Showers and
a few thunderstorms will overspread the terminal this afternoon.
Periods of rain with MVFR and possible IFR will continue until
Thursday morning.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Callaway MO-Cole
MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-
Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-
Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Bond IL-Calhoun
IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-
Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAINT LOUIS MO
440 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016
Convection well south of the area over Arkansas and northern
Louisiana is intercepting the low level jet this morning which is
keeping all of the precipitation well south of our CWFA. Models
are in pretty good agreement that any real significant rain will
likely hold off until at least sometime during the mid to late
afternoon. Some light rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two
are possible as the weak cold front currently stretching from near
Kirksville down into extreme southeast Kansas drifts down across
Central Missouri. GFS and NAM are very bullish on QPF this
afternoon along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and
I-64 in Illinois as the low level jet increases and reinvigorates
convection along the 850mb front. However...I am skeptical.
HRRR/NSSL WRF/NCEP WRF do redevelop precipitation this afternoon
in the same areas as the NAM and GFS, but the convection does not
look strong enough to account for the high QPF values of the GFS
and NAM. Additionally, the RAP`s QPF for this afternoon is not
nearly as high as the GFS and NAM which makes me want to discount
them as well. I therefore used a blend of HRRR and RAP for PoPs
today...basically chance to or slight chance for this morning,
building into likely and categorical across the southeast 1/2 to
2/3 of the CWFA. QPF was a blend of short range models, but comes
out to about 1/2 inch or less for most of the area increasing
rapidly to around 1 inch over the southern extreme of the area. No
changes to the flash flood watch at this time...though if it looks
like the latest runs of the models are going to pan out later
today and tonight, the day shift and/or evening shift tonight may
be able to pull some the northwestern counties from the watch.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016
More rain expected tonight as the models depict strong upper
level divergence over much of the area ahead of the approaching
northern stream upper level trough and in the right entrance
region of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.
Most of the models have the highest QPF shifted a little further
southeast than previous model runs with the low level jet axis
extending across the western portions of TN and KY tonight along
with the best low level moisture, and the surface front across
southeast MO and southern IL. The heaviest rainfall totals for
today through Thursday morning will be 2 to 3 inches across parts
of southeast MO and southwest IL with locally higher amounts
possible. Will continue the flash flood watch through Thursday
morning across parts of central and southeast MO and southwest IL.
The best potential for heavy rain should be south and east of STL.
Most of the rain should shift south of the forecast area Thursday
night and Friday as the front shifts south of the region and a
surface ridge moves eastward through the Great Lakes area. The
ECMWF model appears to have too much rain north of the front in
the southern portion of our forecast area, and prefer the drier
solutions of the NAM and GFS. Cooler temperatures can be expected
for Thursday night, albeit still above normal. Rain will spread
back northward through our forecast area Friday night and Saturday
as the slow moving upper level low moves into the southern Plains
and a modest southerly low level jet brings low level moisture
back northward into our area Friday night. A warm front will also
be moving northward through our area on Saturday. The threat for
rain may continue into Sunday night until the upper level low
finally opens up and lifts east of our area.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2016
Cigs all over the place, will remain pessimistic with mvfr cigs
lowering to ifr towards daybreak. Next round of rain to begin to
move into taf sites after 16z Wednesday and persist through rest
of forecast period. As for winds, to remain from the south, then
veer to the southwest, then to the north after boundary moves
through.
Specifics for KSTL:
Cigs all over the place, will have cigs lowering to ifr after 09z,
then lift back to mvfr by 12z Wednesday. Next round of rain to
begin to move into metro area by 16z Wednesday and persist
through rest of forecast period. As for winds, to remain from the
south, then veer to the southwest by 12z Wednesday, then to the
north after boundary moves through by 16z Wednesday.
Byrd
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 71 52 62 44 / 90 90 60 20
Quincy 62 46 59 41 / 60 70 20 10
Columbia 65 48 61 44 / 70 60 30 10
Jefferson City 67 49 61 44 / 80 70 40 20
Salem 67 58 64 46 / 90 100 90 40
Farmington 66 54 62 46 / 90 100 90 50
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Callaway MO-Cole
MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-
Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-
Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Bond IL-Calhoun
IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-
Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
345 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
A hazy morning awaits our Wednesday, as low clouds and some reduced
visibilities persist through the morning hours before breaking up
later in the morning or early afternoon. Cold frontal boundary is
currently situated near the KC metro, running southwest to northeast
along a KCNU to KDVN line. Near this frontal boundary winds have
become light and variable, which is adding to the fog potential,
given moist conditions. With the better moisture across the southern
2/3 of the CWA cloud cover is a little more ample across those
areas, as opposed to far northwest Missouri, where skies are mostly
clear. As the frontal boundary slowly pushes further and further
southeast the better moisture will gradually become scoured out and
skies will become clearer through the day. This forecast package
reflects a somewhat significant change to the going precipitation
forecast, mainly in the south/southeast 1/2 of the CWA. Expect that
frontal boundary to push far enough east to focus the better low
level ascent across areas of southwest to east central Missouri.
Behind the front, precipitation will be limited, as isentropic lift
appears to be minimized very far north from the immediate boundary.
As a result dramatically reduced PoPs across the far southern and
eastern couple rows of counties for the rest of today. The same
change will be in place for Thursday as well, as surface ridging
takes a firm grasp of the northern plains, and eventually the lower
Missouri River Valley. As a result, expect conditions to be dry
across the area, as the better moisture remains across central and
southern Missouri. Despite the surface ridging (which generally
brings a cool down) temperatures on Thursday will be rather balmy
with highs in the middle to upper 60s, with an outside look at lower
70s.
By late in the week rain chances will return to most of the area,
as the strong mid level trough remains cut off from the ambient mid
level flow and eventually reenters the main flow. Once it reenters
the mid level flow it will eject toward the northeast through
ArkLaTex region and eventually into the lower Missouri River Valley.
As the trough pushes north it will bring good moisture with it,
which will be ample for another round of showers and thunderstorms
likely starting Friday night, and persisting off-and-on through the
day on Saturday morning. The main period of moderate to perhaps
heavy rain will be during the overnight hours on Friday night. PWAT
values will range between an inch to perhaps an inch and half. So,
while there won`t be staggering amounts of moisture, there will be
enough to bring at least a few hours of steady moderate rain. The
00z GFS struggles to introduce much in the way of MU Cape for Friday
night, so while there could be an isolated rumble of thunder or two,
do not expect widespread thunderstorms Friday night. As mentioned
earlier the trough will push northeast through the Missouri and
Mississippi River Valleys, thus ending the widespread stead rain by
early Saturday morning, and leaving perhaps a few scraps of light
rain around for the morning and afternoon hours on Saturday.
The beginning of next week appears to be dry and warm with steady
southerly flow at the surface and some mid level ridging. With
normal highs generally in the lower 50s for mid march, the middle 70
degree temperatures will bring a much-above normal forecast for the
early part of next week.
The focus then shifts to middle next week where a persistently
indicated trough will likely move into and through the forecast
area. Good southerly flow could bring a steady amount of
precipitation northward preceding the trough. GFS and ECMWF are a
bit at odds regarding the timing of this trough, but both are in
general consensus that good moisture will be in place and that the
strong trough will come through sometime in the middle part of the
week. Too early to get into specifics at this point, but this
particular system could be a potential thunderstorm producer. Will
nail down more specifics as the event approaches in time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1253 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Patchy fog with occasional dense fog will be possible over the next
couple hours. The only terminal with a forecast for IFR/LIFR
conditions is MCI, which was prevailing VLIFR at the time of
issuance. The general theme through the early morning will be
temporary flight rules ranging from VFR to VLIFR. Based on guidance
as well as RAP forecast soundings and SREF probs, expect the time
period after 09z to become more prevailing VFR through the rest of
the forecast period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAINT LOUIS MO
340 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016
Convection well south of the area over Arkansas and northern
Louisiana is intercepting the low level jet this morning which is
keeping all of the precipitation well south of our CWFA. Models
are in pretty good agreement that any real significant rain will
likely hold off until at least sometime during the mid to late
afternoon. Some light rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two
are possible as the weak cold front currently stretching from near
Kirksville down into extreme southeast Kansas drifts down across
Central Missouri. GFS and NAM are very bullish on QPF this
afternoon along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and
I-64 in Illinois as the low level jet increases and reinvigorates
convection along the 850mb front. However...I am skeptical.
HRRR/NSSL WRF/NCEP WRF do redevelop precipitation this afternoon
in the same areas as the NAM and GFS, but the convection does not
look strong enough to account for the high QPF values of the GFS
and NAM. Additionally, the RAP`s QPF for this afternoon is not
nearly as high as the GFS and NAM which makes me want to discount
them as well. I therefore used a blend of HRRR and RAP for PoPs
today...basically chance to or slight chance for this morning,
building into likely and categorical across the southeast 1/2 to
2/3 of the CWFA. QPF was a blend of short range models, but comes
out to about 1/2 inch or less for most of the area increasing
rapidly to around 1 inch over the southern extreme of the area. No
changes to the flash flood watch at this time...though if it looks
like the latest runs of the models are going to pan out later
today and tonight, the day shift and/or evening shift tonight may
be able to pull some the northwestern counties from the watch.
Carney
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2016
Round 2 will unfold on Wednesday with precipitation initially
focused in the warm sector across southeast MO and southern IL, and
then shifting northward during the afternoon and evening to become
focused along and north of the southeastward sinking cold front. A
backing, strengthening, and broadening southerly LLJ will result
in an elongated region of deep moisture convergence within the
frontal corridor. Combined with good frontogenetical forcing,
divergence aloft in the ULJ entrance region, low-amplitude
disturbances in the southwest flow aloft, we should see an
elongated region of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms spanning
the frontal zone with both high rates and persistence-training
leading to heavy rain. This time period encompasses the highest
concern for flash flooding. The front will shift southeastward
later on Wednesday night, moving out of the CWA and into the
bootheel by midday Thursday. The southward progression should end
the heavy rain threat and result in lingering lighter stratiform
rainfall. Thursday night and into Friday may be largely dry before
the impacts of the lifting northern Mexico Upper Low come into
play late Friday night into the weekend. Lots of uncertainty still
with the timing, location and strength of this ejecting system.
Precipitation however this weekend looks more showery and light-
moderate in terms of rainfall amounts possible.
Warming temperatures and largely dry weather is expected Monday
into Tuesday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2016
Cigs all over the place, will remain pessimistic with mvfr cigs
lowering to ifr towards daybreak. Next round of rain to begin to
move into taf sites after 16z Wednesday and persist through rest
of forecast period. As for winds, to remain from the south, then
veer to the southwest, then to the north after boundary moves
through.
Specifics for KSTL:
Cigs all over the place, will have cigs lowering to ifr after 09z,
then lift back to mvfr by 12z Wednesday. Next round of rain to
begin to move into metro area by 16z Wednesday and persist
through rest of forecast period. As for winds, to remain from the
south, then veer to the southwest by 12z Wednesday, then to the
north after boundary moves through by 16z Wednesday.
Byrd
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 71 52 62 44 / 90 90 60 20
Quincy 62 46 59 41 / 60 70 20 10
Columbia 65 48 61 44 / 70 60 30 10
Jefferson City 67 49 61 44 / 80 70 40 20
Salem 67 58 64 46 / 90 100 90 40
Farmington 66 54 62 46 / 90 100 90 50
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Callaway MO-Cole
MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-
Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-
Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Bond IL-Calhoun
IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-
Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1255 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
There were only minor changes made to the ongoing forecast through
the period. The first of several opportunities for rain is currently
moving into the CWA associated an ejecting shortwave trough running
out ahead of a deeper trough centered over northwestern Mexico. The
area of rain with embedded thunderstorms should continue to
overspread the CWA from the south and linger through the evening
before ending generally west to east overnight tonight. None of the
storms are expected to become severe given meager instability and
deep layer shear.
For the rest of the periods we should see on again, off again
precip chances as the parent trough slowly translates east northeast
over the week with several associated weaker waves running out ahead
of it. We should remain unsettled into the weekend before the system
finally moves east. The upshot to the pattern is we will remain well
above normal for high and low temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1253 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Patchy fog with occasional dense fog will be possible over the next
couple hours. The only terminal with a forecast for IFR/LIFR
conditions is MCI, which was prevailing VLIFR at the time of
issuance. The general theme through the early morning will be
temporary flight rules ranging from VFR to VLIFR. Based on guidance
as well as RAP forecast soundings and SREF probs, expect the time
period after 09z to become more prevailing VFR through the rest of
the forecast period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
309 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
AT H5 CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR. LARGE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALONG TEXAS GULF COAST. TROUGH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES... PRECIPITATION... AND
FOG. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS EVENING... LOW LEVEL LIFT IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AS EVIDENCED BY A CU FIELD AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE
PANHANDLE AS TOLD BY INVADING ALTOCU/CIRRUS. KEPT SCHC/ISO MENTION
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED LIFT AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING CONTINUED STEEP LAPSE RATES. RAP AND NAM
SOUNDING PROFILES RESEMBLE AN INVERTED V... SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE
PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. NOT
MUCH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS CAPE IS MARGINAL... GENERALLY LESS THAN
300J/KG... AND LIFTED INDEX IS NEAR 0C.
TONIGHT... FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES
SOMEWHAT OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 295K. CONTINUED SCHC RA- ALONG/EAST FROM KIML TO
KBBW THROUGH 12Z. DESPITE MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING... TEMP PROFILES
SHOW A LARGE INVERSION AND MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH 850HPA TEMPS
NEAR 7C. ALSO... DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS SFC TEMPS APPROACH
32F... LIMITING THE THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIP. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA... INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG DUE TO PART PERSISTENCE AND PART
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE OVERALL MOISTURE AND WIND FLOW ARE SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING... WHERE FOG DEVELOPED FROM KVTN TO KONL AND NORTH.
ALSO... NAM AND RAP SUPPORT PATCHY FOG WHILE SREF HINTS AT SOME NEAR
KONL. DROPPED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS THE WEST TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THURSDAY... SUBSIDENCE RESUMES AND MID LEVELS REALLY DRY OUT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. 850HPA FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPS
TOPPING 10C IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS AND 8C NORTH
CENTRAL. HUGGED MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS... WHICH GENERALLY
INCREASED HIGHS BY 1-2 DEGREES. UPPED AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE FARTHER
WEST DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AND WARMER AT 850HPA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
MODELS CONTINUE WITH RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WILL USE A BLEND OF
ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE FORECAST. 850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH A
RISE TO NEAR 15C THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN GRADUAL COOL DOWN FROM
MONDAY BUT NOT AS DRASTIC AS THE LAST TWO DAYS. CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MEXICO SYSTEM
SHEARING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALLOWING CUT OFF LOW TO MOVE
UNDER THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN
ITS WAKE. THIS PAVES THE WAY FOR STRONGER WAVE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. DEPTH
OF TROUGH AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO BACK OFF. WILL TREND TEMPERATURE FORECAST DOWNWARD. IN THE MID
TERM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS INCREASING ON THE BACKSIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT AS SHOWERS FOR NOW. TIMING IN GFS AND
ECMWF ABOUT A DAYS DIFFERENCE AND HAVE BEGUN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE 50S AND 60S ON TUESDAY AND THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
OTHER THAN CURRENTLY ERODING STRATUS INVOF KVTN...KANW...AND
KONL... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CERNTAL NEBRASKA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT... WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS
BEING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SOME GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS RESUME THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE HEIGHTENED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. NEAR
CRITICAL MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES... UNDER 20 PERCENT... ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF U.S. HWY 83. WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AN ISSUE THURSDAY... BUT FLOW STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO WORK EAST. SOUTHERLY 850HPA WINDS APPROACH 30
KTS... AND A LOT OF THAT WILL LIKELY BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE
AS A DEEP MIXED LAYER TAKES HOLD. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
FORECAST ISSUANCES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SNIVELY
FIRE WEATHER...SNIVELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1153 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. STRONG WAVE TO THE EAST
OVER EAST TEXAS AS SEEN IN WV AND RADAR RETURNS. WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND GULF OF ALASKA LOW MOVING PRECIPITATION
INTO THE WEST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SHORT TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES DUE TO STUBBORN STRATUS TODAY AND WAA AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOMORROW.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SLOW TO ERODE STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA HAS RESULTED IN MUCH COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED MAX TEMPS
TODAY. SREF MORE OPTIMISTIC IN BREAKING UP THE STRATUS BY 00Z
WHILE THE NAM AND RAP CLEAR IT OUT TONIGHT. WITH 850HPA FLOW
TURNING WESTERLY IN THE PANHANDLE...THINKING CLEARING WILL OCCUR
SOONER THERE AND SLOWLY WORK EAST. DEPENDING HOW LONG THE STRATUS
HANGS ON OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB...MIN TEMPS MAY BE TOO COOL.
FARTHER SOUTH...DENSE CIRRUS FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. MADE LITTLE CHANGE IN MIN TEMPS FROM FRONTIER TO
WHEELER COUNTIES IN CASE LOWS NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.
ELSEWHERE...WITH MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...TRENDED LOWS
DOWN A DEGREE OR SO... BUT THEY ARE STILL ABOVE GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC/850HPA TROUGH MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS AND MAIN 500HPA WAVE ARRIVING LATER. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AT 850HPA WILL AID IN WAA...INCREASING TEMPS FROM ABOUT 5C
AT 12Z TO NEAR 10C AT 00Z. TRENDED MAX TEMPS TOWARD MAV AND ECM
GUIDANCE...WHICH GENERALLY INCREASED PREVIOUS FCST 1-2 DEGREES.
NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 750HPA AREA WIDE.
SOUNDINGS ALSO PICK UP A QUASI INVERTED V SIGNAL AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FGEN FORCING INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. APPRECIABLE
LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO EXISTS WITH NEARLY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES. CONTINUED SCHC MENTION OF THUNDER WEST OF HWY 83
AFTER 20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONG LIFT AND MARGINAL CAPE.
HOWEVER...WITH DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS...STORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE AND HIGH BASED. ALSO...0-6KM SHEAR IS VERY
HIGH...WHICH MAY RESULT IN ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP FALLING
APART QUICKLY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM AND BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS...PHASING
WITH UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SOME INSTABILITY
AND CAPE WITH 7K FT CEILINGS AND LIFT FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND WEAK LLJ INCREASES. HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL.
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 60S ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE
PUSHES EAST AND THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AS
850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 11C TO 12C. 850MB TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW INITIATES IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW
RHS AND WINDS MAY BE CAUSE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TROUGH
BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY AS UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVES
UNDER THE RIDGE. PACIFIC AIR AND FAIRLY STRONG FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. KVTN
BRIEFLY HAD A RESTRICTED VISIBILITY EARLY...HOWEVER IT HAS SINCE
LIFTED. THIS COULD BE A REOCCURRING THEME OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME
WIDESPREAD LOWERING VISBY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ELSEWHERE SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE OF
CONCERN FRIDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
652 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN. THOUGH
IT WILL BE COOLER FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER BACK INTO
THE PICTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
STEADY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE, FROM NEAR THE NY/PA
LINE SOUTH. THROUGH TONIGHT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OVER NORTHER
NY WILL SAG SOUTH, AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. THE
RESULT WILL BE STEADY RAIN SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
AREA. RAIN LOOKS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BY 06Z, AND
AFTER 09Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. I CONTINUED WITH A 20% TO 30%
CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
SYRACUSE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIM CHANCE OF DRIZZLE. WE HAVE
TONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, THE
QUESTION IS LIFT. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED LIFT THROUGH 10Z SO I
CONTINUED THIS MENTION OF LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY FRIDAY.
THE REST OF FRIDAY WILL BE A FIGHT FOR SUNSHINE. IT LOOKS FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY, WITH MIXING HELPING FOR MORE SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS US A GREAT DAY SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS REBOUNDING. BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST
AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH. EVERYONE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, WITH A FAIRLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES HOWEVER STILL LOOK TO BE SLOW TO ARRIVE, WITH THE FAR
SOUTHWEST STILL MOST AT RISK FOR LATE DAY RAINS. THE BEST CHANCE
BY FAR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN GENERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD INDICATING A MILD BUT SHOWERY PERIOD. INITIALLY
RETURN FLOW A BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH PRES AND SFC WARM FRONT IN THE
VCNTY WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AREA COULD BE PRIMARILY
DRY AS WE RESIDE BRIEFLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY THE NEXT SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MORE RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH DAILY AVERAGES RUNNING 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT IFR TO FUEL ALT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE WITH US
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU, WITH LIGHT RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SHOULD TAKE PLACE THU MORNING
(10-15Z), WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AND A RETURN TO VFR
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
N TO NW SURFACE WINDS 8-12 KT ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AND THU
MORNING, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-22 KT EARLY THU. WINDS
SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR.
SUN NIGHT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1151 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MAINTAINS A FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
APPROACHING MIDNIGHT...IT IS DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SOME
PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ALOFT HAVE
INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...AND THESE HAVE MIXED DOWN IN DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OFF THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR 60 WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. DOWNSLOPING WILL DIMINISH HERE LATER TONIGHT AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SW...BUT SHOULD SPREAD EAST TO THE ROCHESTER AND
WATERTOWN WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN THESE
LOCATIONS TOO. BEFORE THIS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATES TO DROP INTO THE 30S AT
WATERTOWN WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE LLJ MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOWS A SOLID 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST PLACES.
THE EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPS RUNNING AROUND +9C...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSHING READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG
DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER
LAKES...AS WELL AS NEAR THE PA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
RECORD LEVELS...PARTICULARLY AT BUFFALO WHERE THE RECORD IS A
COMPARATIVELY SOFT 65 DEGREES...HOWEVER THEY MAY BE HELD JUST SHY DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FLATTENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST BY ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. ALSO...A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE GUSTING
TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO PARTIAL MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT AND SOME LAKE
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD ARE NECESSARY THIS EVENING...WITH THE
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD STILL LOOKING TO BE
A RATHER WET ONE. READ ON FOR THE DETAILS...
IT WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD...BUT WE CAN BE
THANKFUL THAT THIS WILL NOT INCLUDE THE TYPICAL MARCH EXTREME
WEATHER SCENARIOS THAT RANGE FROM HEAVY SNOW/MIXED WINTRY SLOP TO
EARLY SEASON CONVECTION. A LARGE REASON FOR THIS WILL BE A LOW
AMPLITUDE NORTHERN BRANCH TO A SPLIT FLOW THAT WILL FLOOD THE
COUNTRY WITH PACIFIC BASED AIR. WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION...THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS STACKED LOW OVER OLD
MEXICO AND TEXAS.
THIS ONCE IN A GENERATION (30 YR RETURN INTERVIEW) UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL INCLUDE A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE STACKED LOW OVER TEXAS...WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR SPRINGLIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT
WILL ALSO DIRECT A PLUME OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE GULF. THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES OF
1.5" (+4 STD) WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MID WEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WHERE IT WILL INTERACT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE NOTEWORTHY STACKED LOW TO PRODUCE SOME SOAKING
RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND LAKE ONTARIO
TO THE UPPER MID WEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING NORTH FROM THE
CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHILE
A 50KT H85 JET WILL TRANSPORT A WEALTH OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR OUR
REGION AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SITES NEAR
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE
STRONGEST. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS ONLY
SETTLING TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 50 FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE LOWS WILL
BE CLOSER TO 40. THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS MIXING WITH THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
ON THURSDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE DIRECTLY ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PACKAGES HAVE BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING THOUGH IN REGARDS TO WHETHER SEVERAL SUBTLE WAVES WILL
PROGRESS ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY OR IF ONE ORGANIZED LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH. IN EITHER CASE...THESE LOW LEVEL FEATURES WILL ENHANCE THE
DEEP LIFT ALREADY BEING PROVIDED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE RR QUAD OF
A SCREAMING 170KT H25 OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...AND STRONG H925-70
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF 1.5". THIS WILL
PRODUCE A SWATH OF HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF STEADY RAIN
FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
IT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS WELL...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO NEAR 60 ACROSS MOST OF WRN NY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LAST SFC WAVE...THE FRONT WILL FAIRLY RAPIDLY
PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE AND NOTABLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE PROCESS...ENDING BY
DAYBREAK. 36 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS ENDED EVENT WILL RANGE
FROM ROUGHLY A HALF INCH NEAR THE PA BORDER TO MORE THAN 1.25" FOR
SITES NEAR AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS AMOUNT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE EXTENDED DURATION OF THE PCPN.
THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THEN WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A 24 HOUR PERIOD WHERE THE REGION
CAN DRY OUT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE FAIR WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING US A NOTABLE...BUT VERY TEMPORARY COOL DOWN
AS TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 45 AND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A PROGRESSIVE...PACIFIC BASED FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE COUNTRY. THE RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UNUSUALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW
OVER TEXAS WILL OPEN UP AND EVENTUALLY GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SYSTEM AND SEVERAL PACIFIC
SHORTWAVES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE COMMON AS WE MAKE OUR WAY OUT OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD AT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...THE
PACIFIC FLOW WITH A TENDENCY TOWARDS RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VWP CONFIRM WINDS ALOFT
OF 40-45 KTS AT AROUND 2K FT OVER BUF WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST AND
RESULT IN LLWS SINCE THEY WILL NOT MIX TO THE SURFACE AT TAF
LOCATIONS. FOG MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP AT ART UNTIL AROUND 7Z WHEN
THE LLJ MOVES IN AND MIXES OUT THE MOISTURE.
THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX DOWN BY
LATE MORNING...LEADING TO SW GUSTS TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND THE EDGE OF
THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND NIAGARA FRONTIER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL MIX
WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWERING CIGS EAST OF THE LAKES (AND AT BUF/ART IN PARTICULAR)...BUT
ONCE WINDS DROP OFF THEN AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO FORM.
MEANWHILE SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL TRANSITION TO STEADY RAIN LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN CIGS AND FOG WHICH COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AS
WARMER AIR EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM LAKE ERIE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A REGION OF LOW PRESSURE
BEARS DOWN UPON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RELATIVELY
COOL LAKE WATERS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP WINDS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO BE IN THE
BUFFALO HARBOR AND NIAGARA RIVER.
MODEST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED. AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR/RSH/APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
924 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FOG/LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR TO THE NORTH. BUT IT MAY
TAKE IT WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT TO CLEAR THE FAR NORTHERN RRV AS
IT IS GOING SLOWLY. IN THAT GRAFTON-CAVALIER-HALLOCK AREA FOG IS
DENSE IN AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT IN GRIDS.
OTHERWISE HAVE SOME CIRRUS COMING OVER. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP AS 925 MB WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT THOUGH PRETTY STRONG
INVERSION NR THE SFC WILL MEAN ABOUT HALF OF THE 40-50 KT WINDS
FROM 925 MB MAKING IT TO THE SFC IN ERN ND/RRV. TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT MID 30S TO AROUND 40. A BIT COLDER
ROSEAU-WARROAD THIS EVE AS WINDS THERE WENT LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LINGERING IN THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE CLEARING WITH
THE 18Z RUN...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE THIEF RIVER FALLS TO ROSEAU
AREAS BY SUNSET. TRIMMED HIGHS/EVENING TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR PARTS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATE OR
NOT BEFORE SUNSET. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TONIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE OR NEAR FREEZING
TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM FRIDAY AS TEMPS WILL
START OUT WARM WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE RECORDS ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S...SO EXPECTING TO BREAK THOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S IN THE GRAND FORKS AND FARGO AREAS EXPECTED. FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ALSO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
THE WARM AIR WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S (NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS) TO 60S ELSEWHERE. A PAIR OF UPPER
WAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
(SOUTH). INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A MORE PROGRESSIVE SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK...WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER SUN
NIGHT. 12Z GFS LESS STABLE THAN 00Z ECMWF...WITH NEG SHOWALTERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S...AND ELECT TO NOT INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR SUN NIGHT.
MID WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH THE ECWMF STALLING THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WHEREAS THE GFS LIFTS
THE UPPER LOW INTO CNTRL TO ERN ONTARIO BY 00Z THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL
START OUT AS RAIN TUESDAY AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MID WEEK AS COLDER
AIR IS PULLED IN BEHIND THE LOW. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON TRACK OF
SYSTEM AND WHEN THICKNESS VALUES WILL BEGIN TO FALL OFF...BUT
SUPERBLEND SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS-ECMWF.
EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME DECENT MOISTURE...HOWEVER A SHARP QPF
GRADIENT MOVING EAST TO WEST COULD LEAVE ERN ND MAINLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
LOW CLOUD CLEARING ALMOST TO GFK. IT SHOULD GET THERE NR 02Z OR
SO. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED AS WELL IN THIS LOW CLOUD AREA
FROM GFK TO HALLOCK/CAVALIER. EXPECT CONTINUED SLOW CLEARING
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD WITH
SOME AREAS OF CIRRUS PASSING BY. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING SOME
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST JET DEVELOPS WITH 40-50 KTS
AROUND 3-4K FT AGL. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FROM
RE-DEVELOPING IN ALREADY CLEAR AREAS. AT LEAST THAT IS THE HOPE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
655 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
LOW CLOUD CLEARING WORKING NORTH SLOWLY...JUST ABOUT TO GRAND
FORKS. LOW CLOUD AREA EXTENDS NORTH TO CAVALIER AND HALLOCK STILL.
WITHIN THIS AREA FOG HAS SETTLED BACK IN WITH VSBYS BLO 1/2SM. SO
ADDED FOG TO THE GRIDS IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL WORK NORTH SLOWLY TONIGHT AND MAY TAKE TIL
MIDNIGHT IN THE PEMBINA AREA. OTHERWISE SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES
MOVING EAST WITH A SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT TEMPS WILL HOLD
UP ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LINGERING IN THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE CLEARING WITH
THE 18Z RUN...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE THIEF RIVER FALLS TO ROSEAU
AREAS BY SUNSET. TRIMMED HIGHS/EVENING TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR PARTS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATE OR
NOT BEFORE SUNSET. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TONIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE OR NEAR FREEZING
TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM FRIDAY AS TEMPS WILL
START OUT WARM WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE RECORDS ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S...SO EXPECTING TO BREAK THOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S IN THE GRAND FORKS AND FARGO AREAS EXPECTED. FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ALSO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
THE WARM AIR WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S (NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS) TO 60S ELSEWHERE. A PAIR OF UPPER
WAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
(SOUTH). INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A MORE PROGRESSIVE SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK...WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER SUN
NIGHT. 12Z GFS LESS STABLE THAN 00Z ECMWF...WITH NEG SHOWALTERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S...AND ELECT TO NOT INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR SUN NIGHT.
MID WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH THE ECWMF STALLING THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WHEREAS THE GFS LIFTS
THE UPPER LOW INTO CNTRL TO ERN ONTARIO BY 00Z THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL
START OUT AS RAIN TUESDAY AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MID WEEK AS COLDER
AIR IS PULLED IN BEHIND THE LOW. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON TRACK OF
SYSTEM AND WHEN THICKNESS VALUES WILL BEGIN TO FALL OFF...BUT
SUPERBLEND SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS-ECMWF.
EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME DECENT MOISTURE...HOWEVER A SHARP QPF
GRADIENT MOVING EAST TO WEST COULD LEAVE ERN ND MAINLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
LOW CLOUD CLEARING ALMOST TO GFK. IT SHOULD GET THERE NR 02Z OR
SO. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED AS WELL IN THIS LOW CLOUD AREA
FROM GFK TO HALLOCK/CAVALIER. EXPECT CONTINUED SLOW CLEARING
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD WITH
SOME AREAS OF CIRRUS PASSING BY. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING SOME
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST JET DEVELOPS WITH 40-50 KTS
AROUND 3-4K FT AGL. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FROM
RE-DEVELOPING IN ALREADY CLEAR AREAS. AT LEAST THAT IS THE HOPE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
137 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
NO NOON UPDATE REQUIRED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
JUST A MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. WESTERLY
WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA COULD LEAD TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED NICELY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
FOR TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
THE DENSE FOG NOW CONFINED TO MAINLY WARD AND RENVILLE COUNTIES
AND POSSIBLY WESTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTY. THE FOG HAS LIFTED IN
STANLEY. ALSO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DROPPED TO PATCHY FOG
FROM AREAS.
CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA HAS RESULTED IN COLD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING CLOSE TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OCCUR IN THE NEAR TERM/NOW THROUGH 12Z...WITH A
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST...AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. IN BETWEEN
STRATUS DOMINATES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS MORNING...WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY SOUTH. HOWEVER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING FOG FROM NEAR BISMARCK NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. ONE SHORTWAVE
WAS SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA...WHILE THE SECOND WAS
SEEN IN NORTHCENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAKENING TRENDS FOR BOTH AREAS.
OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY
WILL DAMPEN OUT WHILE SHIFTING EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
REBOUNDING OR RISING HEIGHTS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CAN BE ANTICIPATED
TODAY AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT
NO PRECIPITATION THREAT OTHER THAN THE TWO MINOR AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS IN THE NORTH AND
AREAS OF FOG TO ERODE BY MID MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
FORECAST THE REST OF THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY VERY MILD AND DRY.
A RATHER PERSISTENT H500 GULF OF ALASKA TO EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. WILL FOCUS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...SATURDAY...WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE SUPERBLEND INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
70 SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
DICKINSON. ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND ALSO
MIXED DOWN THE DEWPOINTS WITH THE RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME BUT THURSDAY WILL SEE LOW HUMIDITIES FOR THE
SOUTHWEST. IF WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER FIRE WEATHER WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE TABLE. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING SURFACE WINDS BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES AND THE BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS.
THE NEXT REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND FORMS A CLOSED H500
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD BRING A MIX IF RAIN AND SNOW BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KJMS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1003 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
JUST A MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. WESTERLY
WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA COULD LEAD TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED NICELY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
FOR TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
THE DENSE FOG NOW CONFINED TO MAINLY WARD AND RENVILLE COUNTIES
AND POSSIBLY WESTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTY. THE FOG HAS LIFTED IN
STANLEY. ALSO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DROPPED TO PATCHY FOG
FROM AREAS.
CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA HAS RESULTED IN COLD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING CLOSE TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OCCUR IN THE NEAR TERM/NOW THROUGH 12Z...WITH A
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST...AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. IN BETWEEN
STRATUS DOMINATES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS MORNING...WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY SOUTH. HOWEVER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING FOG FROM NEAR BISMARCK NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. ONE SHORTWAVE
WAS SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA...WHILE THE SECOND WAS
SEEN IN NORTHCENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAKENING TRENDS FOR BOTH AREAS.
OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY
WILL DAMPEN OUT WHILE SHIFTING EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
REBOUNDING OR RISING HEIGHTS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CAN BE ANTICIPATED
TODAY AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT
NO PRECIPITATION THREAT OTHER THAN THE TWO MINOR AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS IN THE NORTH AND
AREAS OF FOG TO ERODE BY MID MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
FORECAST THE REST OF THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY VERY MILD AND DRY.
A RATHER PERSISTENT H500 GULF OF ALASKA TO EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. WILL FOCUS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...SATURDAY...WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE SUPERBLEND INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
70 SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
DICKINSON. ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND ALSO
MIXED DOWN THE DEWPOINTS WITH THE RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME BUT THURSDAY WILL SEE LOW HUMIDITIES FOR THE
SOUTHWEST. IF WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER FIRE WEATHER WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE TABLE. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING SURFACE WINDS BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES AND THE BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS.
THE NEXT REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND FORMS A CLOSED H500
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD BRING A MIX IF RAIN AND SNOW BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
VLIFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KMOT UNTIL 15Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MVFR CIGS VERY CLOSE TO KBIS...AND FOR NOW
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE 12Z ISSUANCE. IFR/MVFR CIGS AT
KJMS UNTIL 17Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KISN/KDIK THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
640 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
THE DENSE FOG NOW CONFINED TO MAINLY WARD AND RENVILLE COUNTIES
AND POSSIBLY WESTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTY. THE FOG HAS LIFTED IN
STANLEY. ALSO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DROPPED TO PATCHY FOG
FROM AREAS.
CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA HAS REULTED IN COLD
MINIMUM TEMPERTAURES THIS MORNING CLOSE TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OCCUR IN THE NEAR TERM/NOW THROUGH 12Z...WITH A
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST...AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. IN BETWEEN
STRATUS DOMINATES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS MORNING...WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY SOUTH. HOWEVER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING FOG FROM NEAR BISMARCK NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. ONE SHORTWAVE
WAS SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA...WHILE THE SECOND WAS
SEEN IN NORTHCENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAKENING TRENDS FOR BOTH AREAS.
OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY
WILL DAMPEN OUT WHILE SHIFTING EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
REBOUNDING OR RISING HEIGHTS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CAN BE ANTICIPATED
TODAY AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT
NO PRECIPITATION THREAT OTHER THAN THE TWO MINOR AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS IN THE NORTH AND
AREAS OF FOG TO ERODE BY MID MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
FORECAST THE REST OF THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY VERY MILD AND DRY.
A RATHER PERSISTENT H500 GULF OF ALASKA TO EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. WILL FOCUS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...SATURDAY...WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE SUPERBLEND INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
70 SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
DICKINSON. ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND ALSO
MIXED DOWN THE DEWPOINTS WITH THE RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME BUT THURSDAY WILL SEE LOW HUMIDITIES FOR THE
SOUTHWEST. IF WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER FIRE WEATHER WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE TABLE. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING SURFACE WINDS BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES AND THE BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS.
THE NEXT REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND FORMS A CLOSED H500
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD BRING A MIX IF RAIN AND SNOW BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
VLIFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KMOT UNTIL 15Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MVFR CIGS VERY CLOSE TO KBIS...AND FOR NOW
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE 12Z ISSUANCE. IFR/MVFR CIGS AT
KJMS UNTIL 17Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KISN/KDIK THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
321 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OCCUR IN THE NEAR TERM/NOW THROUGH 12Z...WITH A
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST...AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. IN BETWEEN
STRATUS DOMINATES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS MORNING...WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY SOUTH. HOWEVER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING FOG FROM NEAR BISMARCK NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. ONE SHORTWAVE
WAS SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA...WHILE THE SECOND WAS
SEEN IN NORTHCENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAKENING TRENDS FOR BOTH AREAS.
OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY
WILL DAMPEN OUT WHILE SHIFTING EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
REBOUNDING OR RISING HEIGHTS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CAN BE ANTICIPATED
TODAY AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT
NO PRECIPITATION THREAT OTHER THAN THE TWO MINOR AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS IN THE NORTH AND
AREAS OF FOG TO ERODE BY MID MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
FORECAST THE REST OF THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY VERY MILD AND DRY.
A RATHER PERSISTENT H500 GULF OF ALASKA TO EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. WILL FOCUS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...SATURDAY...WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE SUPERBLEND INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
70 SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
DICKINSON. ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND ALSO
MIXED DOWN THE DEWPOINTS WITH THE RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME BUT THURSDAY WILL SEE LOW HUMIDITIES FOR THE
SOUTHWEST. IF WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER FIRE WEATHER WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE TABLE. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING SURFACE WINDS BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES AND THE BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS.
THE NEXT REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND FORMS A CLOSED H500
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD BRING A MIX IF RAIN AND SNOW BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KMOT UNTIL 15Z. EXPECTING SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP NEAR KBIS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 15Z. KJMS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR UNTIL
15Z...WITH KISN/KDIK REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1139 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL
ALBERTA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS. A BAND OF RAIN NOW OVER GLASGOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP IS FORECAST TO SHRIVEL AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THE BEST FORCING OVERNIGHT SHIFTS FROM
NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION COULD CLIP OUR FAR
NORTHWEST CORNER WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES MAKE IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH MINIMAL
AREAL COVERAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL.
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR
MAINTAINS THESE CLOUDS THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AS THE LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE 23-02 UTC
RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS AND 00 UTC NAM NEST CONTINUE TO DEPICT FOG
WITHIN THEIR VISIBILITY FORECASTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE POTENTIAL AREA
OF FOG IS NOTED IN THESE LATEST SOLUTIONS...WITH THE MENTION OF
FOG EXPANDED TO INCLUDE AREAS BETWEEN US HIGHWAY 85 AND ND HIGHWAY
3.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 526 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE 19-22 UTC RAP...HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ITERATIONS AND THE
18 UTC NAM NEST ALL SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THEIR VISIBILITY
FORECASTS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FAVORED AREAS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED...ALLOWING FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SATURATE
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP
CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT FAR NORTHWEST...AND STRATUS/FOG CHANCES
SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS MONTANA.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOURIS RIVER VALLEY. HERE WE SHOULD REACH OUR FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGHS. THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL
LIKELY LAG FORECAST HIGHS WITH CLOUDS REMAINING INTO THE EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MONTANA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER. MOST
GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
MAKING IT INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP HERE. THE TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WILL MONITOR BUT
WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS...HAZARDS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION BRUSHING
THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST. ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING OVER
THIS AREA. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN JRV TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...WE DRY OUT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
EAST TO MID 50S WEST. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE
25 TO 3O PERCENT RANGE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
A WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. FLOW
ALOFT AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 TO 30
KNOTS. HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND BUMPED WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...OVER CURRENT GUIDANCE. THIS PRODUCES SOME 15
TO 20 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR
FIRE WEATHER.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS AND BUMPED UP
WINDS A BIT FROM GUIDANCE. FRIDAY SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA
SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE STRONGER BUT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. COULD BE SOME GULF MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL SEE HOW SOON IT ARRIVES. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MVFR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT KJMS UNTIL 15Z WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AT
KMOT/KBIS/KDIK BETWEEN 06Z-15Z WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER
SATURDAY AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO COVER ALL BUT THE LOWER SUSQ AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE POCONO AND CATSKILLS...DELINEATED BY A
AN EXTREMELY NARROW CFRB IN REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC.
CFROPA ON GOOD TRACK WITH EXPECTED TOMING. HIGH POPS CONTINUE
UNTIL MID- 3AM...WHEN THE DRY AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS. PWATS
STILL LOOK MUCH HIGHER THAN MDL QPF WOULD INDICATE. BUT FORCING IS
VERY WEAK. INFLOW FROM THE SS/W WILL TURN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE W
THIS EVENING. THE INFLOW TO THE SERN COS IS COMING FROM A SOURCE
REGION OF 40 DEWPOINT SFC OBS. ALMOST ALL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE DONE
BY 06Z ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GUID. HRRR AND RAP ARE
HANGING ONTO THINGS A BIT LONGER SO AM LEARY TO TOTALLY CUT SHRA
OFF AT THAT POINT. BUT THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT TIMING...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO LINGER MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON THE FRINGES
OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE
SHORTLY AFTER FROPA OVERNIGHT. BUT OFF-LAKE FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE STEEP/DRASTIC SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAKE
KEEP BKN CLOUDS IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO FRI AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT THE REMAINING CLOUDS AT DAYBREAK TO BE EATEN AWAY BY THE
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOWERING INVERSION AND DAYTIME MIXING. 8H
TEMPS MAY BE CLOSE TO 0C IN THE FAR NE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE 5C OR BETTER. MIXING WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW 3500FT THO. THUS
TEMPS WILL PROB MAX OUT IN THE U40S N AND L60S S. THESE ARE STILL
10F BETTER THAN NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD IN THE
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHC FOR
SHOWERS...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED AS WELL...AS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES UP TO OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
DAYS WILL FEATURE A CHC OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES.
A RIDGE OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE 12Z GFS/GEFS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES...CENTERED ON THE
GLAKES. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT DIG THE TROUGH AS
DEEPLY...AND CREATES A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT FRIDAY.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM KIDI TO KIPT AT 03Z...WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH KBFD
IS REPORTING VFR CONDS AT 0330Z...UPSTREAM OBS AND NR TERM MDL
DATA POINT TOWARD PREDOMINANTLY IFR CIGS BTWN 04Z-12Z...DUE TO
POST-FRONTAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS. FURTHER
SOUTH...THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN RAIN WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN 03Z-07Z...AS PLUME OF PREFRONTAL
MOISTURE ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...A DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL RESULT IN
MORE FAVORABLE CONDS OVERNIGHT. STILL...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
RAIN/REDUCED CIGS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT OVERNIGHT. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MAINLY MVFR REDUCTIONS...OCCURRING BTWN 03Z-08Z AT
KIPT/KAOO/KUNV AND POSSIBLY BTWN 06Z-10Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LINGERING
IFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST UNTIL LATE AM AND MVFR CIGS AT KUNV/KAOO.
AFTER THAT...MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUPPORT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MIXES OUT
AND SKIES CLEAR.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY NORTH. EVENING -RA/LOW CIGS
POSS KJST/KAOO.
SUN...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP AT NIGHT.
MON...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
* HARRISBURG HAS ALREADY SMASHED THEIR REC MAX OF 72 TODAY WITH
AT LEAST A 77 AS OF 2 PM EST.
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MARCH 10TH:
HARRISBURG: 72 IN 2006 --- 77+ IN 2016
WILLIAMSPORT: 71 IN 1977
ALTOONA: 72 IN 1986
BRADFORD: 66 IN 1986
STATE COLLEGE: 72 IN 1986
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
853 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER
SATURDAY AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO COVER ALL BUT THE LOWER SUSQ AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE POCONO AND CATSKILLS...DELINEATED BY A
AN EXTREMELY NARROW CFRB IN REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC.
CFROPA ON GOOD TRACK WITH EXPECTED TOMING. HIGH POPS CONTINUE
UNTIL MID- 3AM...WHEN THE DRY AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS. PWATS
STILL LOOK MUCH HIGHER THAN MDL QPF WOULD INDICATE. BUT FORCING IS
VERY WEAK. INFLOW FROM THE SS/W WILL TURN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE W
THIS EVENING. THE INFLOW TO THE SERN COS IS COMING FROM A SOURCE
REGION OF 40 DEWPOINT SFC OBS. ALMOST ALL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE DONE
BY 06Z ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GUID. HRRR AND RAP ARE
HANGING ONTO THINGS A BIT LONGER SO AM LEARY TO TOTALLY CUT SHRA
OFF AT THAT POINT. BUT THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT TIMING...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO LINGER MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON THE FRINGES
OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE
SHORTLY AFTER FROPA OVERNIGHT. BUT OFF-LAKE FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE STEEP/DRASTIC SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAKE
KEEP BKN CLOUDS IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO FRI AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT THE REMAINING CLOUDS AT DAYBREAK TO BE EATEN AWAY BY THE
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOWERING INVERSION AND DAYTIME MIXING. 8H
TEMPS MAY BE CLOSE TO 0C IN THE FAR NE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE 5C OR BETTER. MIXING WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW 3500FT THO. THUS
TEMPS WILL PROB MAX OUT IN THE U40S N AND L60S S. THESE ARE STILL
10F BETTER THAN NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD IN THE
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHC FOR
SHOWERS...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED AS WELL...AS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES UP TO OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
DAYS WILL FEATURE A CHC OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES.
A RIDGE OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE 12Z GFS/GEFS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES...CENTERED ON THE
GLAKES. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT DIG THE TROUGH AS
DEEPLY...AND CREATES A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT FRIDAY.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT...LOCATED JUST SE OF KBFD AT 00Z...WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM OBS AND NR TERM
MDL DATA SUGGEST RAIN WILL TAPER OFF ARND MIDNIGHT AT KBFD...BUT
RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
IFR CIGS PERSISTING THRU FRIDAY AM. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE IS A
HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF RAIN WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS
AT KJST BTWN 02Z-07Z...AS PLUME OF PREFRONTAL MOISTURE ASCENDS
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...A DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL RESULT IN
MORE FAVORABLE CONDS OVERNIGHT. STILL...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
RAIN/REDUCED CIGS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT OVERNIGHT. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MAINLY MVFR REDUCTIONS...OCCURRING BTWN 00Z-07Z AT
KIPT/KAOO/KUNV AND POSSIBLY BTWN 05Z-09Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LINGERING
IFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST UNTIL LATE AM AND MVFR CIGS AT KUNV/KAOO.
AFTER THAT...MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUPPORT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MIXES OUT
AND SKIES CLEAR.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY NORTH. EVENING -RA/LOW CIGS
POSS KJST/KAOO.
SUN...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP AT NIGHT.
MON...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
* HARRISBURG HAS ALREADY SMASHED THEIR REC MAX OF 72 TODAY WITH
AT LEAST A 77 AS OF 2 PM EST.
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MARCH 10TH:
HARRISBURG: 72 IN 2006 --- 77+ IN 2016
WILLIAMSPORT: 71 IN 1977
ALTOONA: 72 IN 1986
BRADFORD: 66 IN 1986
STATE COLLEGE: 72 IN 1986
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
733 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER
SATURDAY AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS COVERING ALL BUT AREAS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OH THROUGH NW MTNS AND INTO
UPSTATE NEW YORK...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH IS INDICATED BY AN
EXTREMELY NCFRB IN REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC.
CFROPA LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH PREV TIMING. HIGH POPS CONTINUE
UNTIL MID- 3AM...WHEN THE DRY AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS. PWATS
STILL LOOK MUCH HIGHER THAN MDL QPF WOULD INDICATE. BUT FORCING IS
VERY WEAK. INFLOW FROM THE SS/W WILL TURN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE W
THIS EVENING. THE INFLOW TO THE SERN COS IS COMING FROM A SOURCE
REGION OF 40 DEWPOINT SFC OBS. ALMOST ALL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE DONE
BY 06Z ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GUID. HRRR AND RAP ARE
HANGING ONTO THINGS A BIT LONGER SO AM LEARY TO TOTALLY CUT SHRA
OFF AT THAT POINT. BUT THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT TIMING...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO LINGER MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON THE FRINGES
OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE
SHORTLY AFTER FROPA OVERNIGHT. BUT OFF-LAKE FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE STEEP/DRASTIC SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAKE
KEEP BKN CLOUDS IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO FRI AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT THE REMAINING CLOUDS AT DAYBREAK TO BE EATEN AWAY BY THE
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOWERING INVERSION AND DAYTIME MIXING. 8H
TEMPS MAY BE CLOSE TO 0C IN THE FAR NE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE 5C OR BETTER. MIXING WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW 3500FT THO. THUS
TEMPS WILL PROB MAX OUT IN THE U40S N AND L60S S. THESE ARE STILL
10F BETTER THAN NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD IN THE
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHC FOR
SHOWERS...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED AS WELL...AS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES UP TO OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
DAYS WILL FEATURE A CHC OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES.
A RIDGE OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE 12Z GFS/GEFS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES...CENTERED ON THE
GLAKES. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT DIG THE TROUGH AS
DEEPLY...AND CREATES A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT FRIDAY.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT...LOCATED JUST SE OF KBFD AT 00Z...WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM OBS AND NR TERM
MDL DATA SUGGEST RAIN WILL TAPER OFF ARND MIDNIGHT AT KBFD...BUT
RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
IFR CIGS PERSISTING THRU FRIDAY AM. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE IS A
HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF RAIN WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS
AT KJST BTWN 02Z-07Z...AS PLUME OF PREFRONTAL MOISTURE ASCENDS
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...A DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL RESULT IN
MORE FAVORABLE CONDS OVERNIGHT. STILL...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
RAIN/REDUCED CIGS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT OVERNIGHT. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MAINLY MVFR REDUCTIONS...OCCURRING BTWN 00Z-07Z AT
KIPT/KAOO/KUNV AND POSSIBLY BTWN 05Z-09Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LINGERING
IFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST UNTIL LATE AM AND MVFR CIGS AT KUNV/KAOO.
AFTER THAT...MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUPPORT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MIXES OUT
AND SKIES CLEAR.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY NORTH. EVENING -RA/LOW CIGS
POSS KJST/KAOO.
SUN...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP AT NIGHT.
MON...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
* HARRISBURG HAS ALREADY SMASHED THEIR REC MAX OF 72 TODAY WITH
AT LEAST A 77 AS OF 2 PM EST.
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MARCH 10TH:
HARRISBURG: 72 IN 2006 --- 77+ IN 2016
WILLIAMSPORT: 71 IN 1977
ALTOONA: 72 IN 1986
BRADFORD: 66 IN 1986
STATE COLLEGE: 72 IN 1986
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO A MORE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WHICH LAST INTO MONDAY. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AIR WILL
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM...A DECK OF HIGH-BASED STRATUS IS DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA THIS EVENING UNDER A THIN CIRRUS
OVERCAST. A LINE OF SHOWERS TRIED TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO THE SW
NC MOUNTAINS...BUT IS DISSIPATING. THE LATEST HRRR RUN HAS
INITIALIZED THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL...AND SHOWS LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THRU THE OVERNIGHT. SO I HAVE TRIMMED POPS
BACK....KEEPING THEM MORE CONFINED TO NEAR THE TN BORDER.
ALSO...TEMPS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST TRENDS DUE TO THE
CLOUDS...SO MIN TEMPS WERE TWEAKED UP A CATEGORY OR SO IN MOST SPOTS.
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS LED TO WARM CONDITIONS WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM REACHING THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TOP AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MIDLEVELS COOL ENOUGH WITH THE ADVANCING
TROUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. A LAYER OF WARM AIR
IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PERSISTS AT 600 TO 750 MB...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL
BLUNT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NONETHELESS...SOME CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSHOWER WILL EXIST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM THURSDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND
LOOKS LIKE TYPICAL SPRING-TIME STUFF...WITH ALL ITS UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER LOW GETS KICKED NNE FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND AN
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS
LIKE THE TRICKIEST DAY AS WE SHOULD HAVE A LINGERING MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS SLOWLY NWD. NOT THE
STRONGEST COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNAL...BY ANY MEANS...BUT THE PRESENCE
OF A WEAK SFC HIGH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST HINTS THAT SOME
IN-SITU CAD COULD OCCUR AT LEAST ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT/NRN
FOOTHILLS OF NC INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE FCST HIGH TEMP
WILL HAVE QUITE THE GRADIENT FROM N TO S...WITH PLENTY OF BUST
POTENTIAL EITHER WAY. SEEMS MORE LIKELY IN THESE SITUATIONS THE WEAK
CAD OR COOL POOL IS STRONGER/MORE EXTENSIVE THAN PLANNED...SO IF
ANYTHING THE TEMPS MIGHT BE TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. THE SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING...SO EXPECT WE WILL HAVE SOME
LULL IN THE ACTION...BEFORE THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST APPROACHES ON
SUNDAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OLD UPPER LOW/TROF LIFTS NE UP
THE MS RIVER BASIN. FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...SO THE RAMP UP OF PRECIP CHANCES WAS DELAYED UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY. EVENTUALLY...THE PRECIP PROBABILITY RISES INTO THE
LIKELY RANGE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS TIME OF YEAR OUR MAIN CONCERN SHIFTS TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...SHEAR IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...AND BUOYANCY IS ALSO WEAK.
UNLESS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS MUCH STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM THURSDAY...ON MONDAY...A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 6Z MON
ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS BY 0Z TUES. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A FIELD OF OMEGA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT 30-40 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM.
IN FACT...BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH WITHIN 3 TO 4
DEGREES OF RECORD VALUES EAST OF THE MTNS. IN OTHER WORDS...HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH AROUND 80 DEGREES.
ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT FOLLOWED BY A LONGWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
FRONT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WILL INDICATE ONLY CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS WITH SCHC EAST...MENTIONING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF I-85. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM WEDNESDAY/S VALUES...BUT CLOSER
TO MILD VALUES EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT
RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES OF LOW STRATUS THAN WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY.
WITH THAT SAID...SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HINT AT REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND PERHAPS GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS THE UPSTATE
AND KCLT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO DECOUPLE AGAIN...SO FOG
POTENTIAL IS LOW. SW WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON FRIDAY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE THRU THE PROFILES...AS
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OUT OF THE WEST WHILE LINGERING
MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXING LAYER SHOULD PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
GARDEN-VARIETY TSRA. I HAVE PLACED PROB30 GROUPS FOR ALL
SITES...EXCEPT AT KCLT AND KAND...WHERE PROBS ARE LESS THAN 30
PERCENT.
OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY AND STALL ATOP THE REGION THRU SATURDAY...RESULTING IN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS. MEANWHILE...CONTINUED
LLV MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION WILL YIELD EVER INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MORNING RESTRICTIONS BY WAY OF CIGS/FOG.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z 21-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 87% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 83% MED 64% LOW 58%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% MED 74% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% LOW 27% LOW 59% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WJM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
334 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...AT MID AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS
THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES AREA...OTHERWISE MID TN WAS RAIN FREE.
SKIES WERE CLOUDY WEST OF I 65...AND MAINLY SUNNY EAST.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE VERY MILD 70S...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. AN
INTERESTING AND UNEXPECTED FEATURE IS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS
SHARPENED ACROSS NW MID TN...SEPARATING RAIN COOLED AIR AND NW
WINDS IN THE CKV AREA FROM THE MILD AIR AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ELSEWHERE. MOST MODELS HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE. THE
RAP MODEL SHOWS IT...AND INDICATES THE FEATURE STAYING AROUND INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN LARGE SCALE WX FEATURES AFFECTING OUR WX INCLUDE HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO
AND TX. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS HAS CREATED SOUTH WINDS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ARE RUNNING 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS...BUT NOT QUITE RECORD
SETTING. THE SOUTH FLOW WAS BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE
WESTERN GULF COAST...UP THE MS VALLEY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THOSE
REGIONS. ALSO...THERE WAS A FRONT LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DOWN TO THE MID MS VALLEY THAT WILL BE COMING OUR WAY.
FOR TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS WARMER THAN
OUR NORMAL HIGHS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE WEST HALF. ON THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS DEEP MOISTURE COMES IN FROM THE SSW. RAIN WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS MID TN THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF I 65.
THE FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE TN VALLEY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY MORNING AND
MIDDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND TX LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS TN. THERE
WILL BE EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST TIME...WITH 30-40 POPS.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUN ON SATURDAY...SOME PLACES MAY TOUCH 80
DEGREES.
AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY ON MONDAY...DRY WX WILL RETURN
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FOR NEXT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S...AND POSSIBLY 80 IN
SOME AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR. -SHRA WILL CONTINUE JUST NW OF CKV THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCSH
MENTION...BUT HRRR INDICATES -SHRA WILL MOVE BACK OVER AIRPORT
AROUND 04Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NO PRECIP
ANTICIPATED AT BNA/CSV TODAY/TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED AT AIRPORTS THROUGH WED
EVE...SUBSIDING TO 5-11 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 63 75 58 70 60 / 20 70 80 50 40
CLARKSVILLE 59 70 56 68 57 / 60 100 80 50 50
CROSSVILLE 59 71 60 68 59 / 10 20 70 50 30
COLUMBIA 62 75 60 69 60 / 20 60 80 60 40
LAWRENCEBURG 61 75 61 71 61 / 10 40 80 60 40
WAVERLY 61 72 55 69 58 / 50 90 80 60 50
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
252 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...HEAVY RAIN EVENT WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDSOUTH. TWO TO FOUR INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE DELTA FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWESTWARD. A DEEP UPPER LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS SETUP IS PUMPING
TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY FROM
EAST TEXAS NORTHEAST THOUGH THE MIDSOUTH. A STEADY STREAM OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE
MID-SOUTH. HEAVY RAIN COVERS MUCH OF THE DELTA ATTM WITH FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN ARKANSAS.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARD HEAVY RAIN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVERNIGHT AS A STREAM OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO THE
REGION. PWATS OF 1.75 INCHES OR MORE ADVECT INTO THE MID-SOUTH
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OVERNIGHT. THIS CONFIRMED WELL BY THE LATEST HRRR DATA. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH PLACEMENT SEEMS GOOD ATTM. THE NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND START TO PUSH IT EAST ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
SHIFT THE HEAVY RAIN EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH UP TO ADDITIONAL 6 INCHES
ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS AND 3-4 INCHES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
INCLUDING MEMPHIS. SOME PLACES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL SEE OVER
10 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BASICALLY JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA...RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES...MAY NOT GET QUITE AS MUCH
AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH AREAS ALONG THE MS RIVER PICKING UP
MORE. EITHER WAY EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF RIVER FLOODING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND
SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE DEPARTS. THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAN THE GFS/NAM. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO
THE MIDSOUTH WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NOT A FOCUSING MECHANISM IN PLACE LIKE
THE CURRENT BOUNDARY HOWEVER GIVEN THE ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ON A ISOLATED LEVEL. THE GROUND WILL
BE SATURATED AND RIVER/STREAM FLOWS WILL ALREADY BE HIGH SO ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD BE A PROBLEM. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED. ON THE HEELS OF THIS UPPER LOW THAT TREKKED
FROM MEXICO IS ANOTHER UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH ON TO THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY. THIS NEXT UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH WITH YET MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXIT THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY.
TUESDAY...DRY AND VERY WARM...MAYBE 80.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
A DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE MS RIVER. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS EXISTS AT JBR WHERE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH OCCASIONAL
VCTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SHORTLY...REMAINING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FURTHER EAST AT MEM...A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE WEST...AND LIKELY OSCILLATE NEAR
THE TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. LOWER VIS WITH VCTS IN
THE LINE IS LIKELY ONCE IT MOVES IN...AND IT COULD PERSIST FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME. AFTER 09Z...LIGHTNING MAY DECREASE
WITH A STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. TUP AND MKL WILL REMAIN
MARGINALLY MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL
LARGELY REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
QUITMAN-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1246 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
MEXICO AND TX. IN BETWEEN...SOUTH WINDS WERE BRINGING MILD AIR
INTO THE TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WAS FOCUSED FROM THE TX/LA GULF COAST UP
THE MS VALLEY...WHERE HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING. A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE WERE AFFECTING OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. WE EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST...MAINLY WEST OF DICKSON AND CLARKSVILLE. THESE AREAS
WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 70S.
OTHERWISE ACROSS THE MID STATE...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S PLATEAU.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY...ABOUT 30 MPH AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR. -SHRA WILL CONTINUE JUST NW OF CKV THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCSH
MENTION...BUT HRRR INDICATES -SHRA WILL MOVE BACK OVER AIRPORT
AROUND 04Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NO PRECIP
ANTICIPATED AT BNA/CSV TODAY/TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED AT AIRPORTS THROUGH WED
EVE...SUBSIDING TO 5-11 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1120 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNDERWAY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS A GOOD DEAL OF EAST
ARKANSAS...NW MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SW TENNESSEE. AN UPPER LOW
IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE
STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. PWATS IN THIS PLUME ARE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES PUSHING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. ALL
THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES
FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER NORTHEAST
INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WHICH ALONG WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...BASICALLY JUST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIVER. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAPPENING UPSTREAM THIS
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE. HAVE UPPED POPS ALONG THE RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS TOWARD THE
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.
SJM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS.
CLASSIC HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CURRENTLY...A STALLED STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI FROM A SFC LOW
LOCATED IN EAST TENNESSEE. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS CONTINUED TO
TRAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY...SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER OCCURRED WITH THE SHOWERS BUT SINCE HAS DIED
OUT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY WHILE A
COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM EASTERN IOWA TO NEAR
TULSA OKLAHOMA DRIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL SET UP A CORRIDOR OF
HEAVY RAIN STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH EAST ARKANSAS
TO EAST TEXAS/WEST LOUISIANA. PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS IS NOW
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY.
AS MUCH AS 2-5 INCHES COULD FALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS
THIS AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CONCERN BEING
RANDOLPH...CLAY...LAWRENCE...GREENE...AND CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES. A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NOW EXTENDS AROUND THIS
MODERATE RISK AREA AND STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH
EASTWARD TO OBION COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTH TO QUITMAN/COAHOMA
COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI. WHILE RIVER FLOODING WILL BE A HUGE
CONCERN ALONG THE BLACK...CACHE...AND ST. FRANCIS RIVER
BASINS...FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR THE AREAS
UNDERNEATH THE WATCH FROM THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. THUS WILL
CONVERT FLOOD WATCH TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. RIVER FORECASTS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE BLACK...CACHE AND ST. FRANCIS RIVER
BASINS AND WILL LIKELY RISE FURTHER IF PROJECTED QPF AMOUNTS
VERIFY. IF YOU LIVE ALONG ANY OF THESE RIVERS...PREPARE NOW FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING AS THE RIVERS COULD RISE QUICKLY WITH AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL FORECASTED. ALSO...IF YOU MUST TRAVEL DO NOT DRIVE OVER
ANY ROADWAY THAT IS COVERED BY WATER. TURN AROUND AND TAKE AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FOR NOW...EXPECT SPEEDS
TO STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED
TO REEVALUATE LATER THIS MORNING.
THE TWO BOUNDARIES WILL ESSENTIALLY MERGE INTO ONE STALLED
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LOCATED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN LAST
NIGHTS MODEL RUNS WERE PROJECTING. THIS HAS SHIFTED THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF FURTHER EAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL
REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE BIGGEST THREAT AS THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL CONTINUES WITH A MODERATE RISK OVER PORTIONS OF EAST
ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. DO NOT SEE THIS CHANGING UNTIL THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS BEGINS TO MOVE. THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...PW/S ARE
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A RESULT...WILL
ALSO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH IN TIME THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AS
MUCH AS 7-10 INCHES COULD FALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN TROF AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION.
A SECONDARY UPPER TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL RESULT IN EVEN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
A DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE MS RIVER. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS EXISTS AT JBR WHERE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH OCCASIONAL
VCTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SHORTLY...REMAINING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FURTHER EAST AT MEM...A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE WEST...AND LIKELY OSCILLATE NEAR
THE TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. LOWER VIS WITH VCTS IN
THE LINE IS LIKELY ONCE IT MOVES IN...AND IT COULD PERSIST FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME. AFTER 09Z...LIGHTNING MAY DECREASE
WITH A STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. TUP AND MKL WILL REMAIN
MARGINALLY MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL
LARGELY REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
QUITMAN-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1104 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AT MID MORNING...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
MEXICO AND TX. IN BETWEEN...SOUTH WINDS WERE BRINGING MILD AIR
INTO THE TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WAS FOCUSED FROM THE TX/LA GULF COAST UP
THE MS VALLEY...WHERE HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING. A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE WERE AFFECTING OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. WE EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST...MAINLY WEST OF DICKSON AND CLARKSVILLE. THESE AREAS
WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 70S.
OTHERWISE ACROSS THE MID STATE...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S PLATEAU.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY...ABOUT 30 MPH AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL THREE TERMINALS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM LARGER UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
EASTERN AR AND WESTERN TN. HRRR HAS BEEN BULLISH WITH PUSHING
PRECIP INTO CKV DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY BUT OTHER MODELS
ARE KEEPING THE PRECIP WEST OF THE TN RIVER. RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO
AGREE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. MORE MODELS ARE ON BOARD
WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR CKV THEREFORE
MENTIONED VCSH. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD AND WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. AFTER SUNSET WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY BUT STILL IN THE 10
KT RANGE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1032 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNDERWAY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS A GOOD DEAL OF EAST
ARKANSAS...NW MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SW TENNESSEE. AN UPPER LOW
IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE
STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. PWATS IN THIS PLUME ARE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES PUSHING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. ALL
THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES
FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER NORTHEAST
INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WHICH ALONG WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...BASICALLY JUST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIVER. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAPPENING UPSTREAM THIS
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE. HAVE UPPED POPS ALONG THE RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS TOWARD THE
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.
SJM
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS.
CLASSIC HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CURRENTLY...A STALLED STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI FROM A SFC LOW
LOCATED IN EAST TENNESSEE. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS CONTINUED TO
TRAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY...SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER OCCURRED WITH THE SHOWERS BUT SINCE HAS DIED
OUT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY WHILE A
COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM EASTERN IOWA TO NEAR
TULSA OKLAHOMA DRIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL SET UP A CORRIDOR OF
HEAVY RAIN STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH EAST ARKANSAS
TO EAST TEXAS/WEST LOUISIANA. PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS IS NOW
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY.
AS MUCH AS 2-5 INCHES COULD FALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS
THIS AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CONCERN BEING
RANDOLPH...CLAY...LAWRENCE...GREENE...AND CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES. A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NOW EXTENDS AROUND THIS
MODERATE RISK AREA AND STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH
EASTWARD TO OBION COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTH TO QUITMAN/COAHOMA
COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI. WHILE RIVER FLOODING WILL BE A HUGE
CONCERN ALONG THE BLACK...CACHE...AND ST. FRANCIS RIVER
BASINS...FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR THE AREAS
UNDERNEATH THE WATCH FROM THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. THUS WILL
CONVERT FLOOD WATCH TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. RIVER FORECASTS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE BLACK...CACHE AND ST. FRANCIS RIVER
BASINS AND WILL LIKELY RISE FURTHER IF PROJECTED QPF AMOUNTS
VERIFY. IF YOU LIVE ALONG ANY OF THESE RIVERS...PREPARE NOW FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING AS THE RIVERS COULD RISE QUICKLY WITH AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL FORECASTED. ALSO...IF YOU MUST TRAVEL DO NOT DRIVE OVER
ANY ROADWAY THAT IS COVERED BY WATER. TURN AROUND AND TAKE AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FOR NOW...EXPECT SPEEDS
TO STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED
TO REEVALUATE LATER THIS MORNING.
THE TWO BOUNDARIES WILL ESSENTIALLY MERGE INTO ONE STALLED
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LOCATED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN LAST
NIGHTS MODEL RUNS WERE PROJECTING. THIS HAS SHIFTED THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF FURTHER EAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL
REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE BIGGEST THREAT AS THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL CONTINUES WITH A MODERATE RISK OVER PORTIONS OF EAST
ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. DO NOT SEE THIS CHANGING UNTIL THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS BEGINS TO MOVE. THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...PW/S ARE
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A RESULT...WILL
ALSO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH IN TIME THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AS
MUCH AS 7-10 INCHES COULD FALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN TROF AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION.
A SECONDARY UPPER TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL RESULT IN EVEN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHRA AT MEM/JBR. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY THEN BECOME MORE PERSISTENT THIS EVENING AS
CEILINGS LOWER TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR AT MEM/JBR.
OTHERWISE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MKL/TUP. SE/SSE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS
TODAY.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
QUITMAN-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
527 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWARD TO
TX. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CAL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...THE ELEVATED WIND FLOW WILL BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY. THUS...ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED. HENCE...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY THURSDAY...A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE CAL COAST AND ACT TO KICK OUT THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER TX. AT THAT TIME...POPS WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE
WITH LIKELY COVERAGE ACROSS A BROAD AREA. INSTABILITY
LEVELS...THOUGH WEAK...WILL BE IN PLAY SO COULD SEE A FEW TSTMS THU
AND THU NT. OTW...AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THROUGH FRIDAY WE COULD
SEE 2 INCHES FAR NORTHWEST...RANGING DOWN TO A QUARTER INCH FAR
SOUTHEAST. AS FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVE THE INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS. IT WILL BE QUITE
MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER THU
NT AND FRI AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
IN THE EXT FCST...AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. AS IT PULLS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL VACATE THE AREA. HOWEVER...SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE MID STATE AND BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS AS WELL. NO FAVORABLE ORGANIZED SEVERE
TSTM SYNOPTIC SETUP IS INDICATED. BUT...AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 TO 1/2
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXT PERIOD. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
TUES.
FOR THE EXT TEMPS...CONTINUED MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY AFTER THE WARM FROPA FRI NT. LOOK FOR HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...LOWS IN THE 50S. THATS A GOOD 15
DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL THREE TERMINALS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM LARGER UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
EASTERN AR AND WESTERN TN. HRRR HAS BEEN BULLISH WITH PUSHING
PRECIP INTO CKV DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY BUT OTHER MODELS
ARE KEEPING THE PRECIP WEST OF THE TN RIVER. RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO
AGREE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. MORE MODELS ARE ON BOARD
WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR CKV THEREFORE
MENTIONED VCSH. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD AND WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. AFTER SUNSET WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY BUT STILL IN THE 10
KT RANGE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........10/REAGAN
LONG TERM..................XXI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1229 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED PRODUCTS TO REMOVE SEVERE WATCH FROM THE
AREA. INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE NEAR THE COAST. STILL GOOD
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS...BUT SOME DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS WELL. ANOTHER PULSE
OF ENERGY WILL IMPACT AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LIKELY
RAISE POPS UP SOME FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL HAVE OTHER THINGS
TO TAKE CARE OF FIRST...BUT THAT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL BE THE
TREND. UPDATES OUT.
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL TRY TO KEEP THIS SHORT...BUT IS NOT GONNA HAPPEN.
CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE
RAIN/THUNDER OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS (LIKE KCRP AND KVCT).
EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS EVENING OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...THEN DEVELOP WEST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CIGS WILL DROP AS A RESULT. WILL GO WITH AT LEAST SOME
RAIN/THUNDER IN TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY (MORE
TEMPO/PROB30 AFTER 10/09Z...SEE TAFS)...THEN IT LOOKS THAT BEST
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. AM EXPECTING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MID-DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST.
CONCERNING VSBYS...MOS IS GIVING FOG OVERNIGHT OVER
TERMINALS...SOME OF IT DENSE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS
TIME BUT AM GOING WITH MVFR FOG AS WINDS DECREASE. HARD TO GO WITH
DENSE FOG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS HERE...AS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS
DOES NOT HAPPEN MUCH. HOWEVER...IF WINDS DO COME MORE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT WE COULD HAVE FOG IFR OR WORSE. IT REALLY DEPENDS ON
WHERE THE SURFACE LOW RESIDES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR SVR WATCH NUMBER 40 UNTIL NOON.
ALSO...DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS BEE...GOLIAD AND VICTORIA
COUNTIES. UPPER JET AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST...THE LATTER DOING SO BY NOON (HENCE THE WATCH TIL NOON).
UPDATES ARE OUT. SCA IS ON-GOING AND LOOKS OK FOR NOW (WILL LOOK
AT IT A BIT MORE BUT HAVE BIGGER FISH TO FRY FOR NOW).
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS UPPER
LOW REMAINS TO THE WEST AND COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH REMARKS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SHRA REMARKS FOR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS RETURN TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS YET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. STORMS HAVE BEHAVED THUS FAR AND CURRENT THINKING
KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4AM. UPPER LOW BACK TO THE WEST WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AT THE
SFC...TROUGH WILL HUG THE COASTLINE TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR RENEWED CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY OR SO AND WILL CARRY
HIGHEST POPS TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. SOME MODERATE TO AT
TIMES HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS/SMALL HAIL MAY
EXIST ON THURSDAY AS COLD CORE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.
LASTLY...A HIGH RISK RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST TODAY ALONG AREA
BEACHES AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS COMBINE WITH ELEVATED SWELL
HEIGHTS.
MARINE...GUSTS DID NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF
WATERS SO HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING. HAVE REPLACED THE GALE
WARNING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL FINALLY START TO KICK OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND WILL TRACK ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. ONCE THE
LOW GETS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY. HAVE JUST SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS LINGERING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN DRY FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO NOT BRING RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT
BROAD TROUGH SHIFTING WEST BY TUES/WED. MIN POSITION OF UPPER AND
SURFACE LOW WILL IMPACT THE DETAILS OF WIND/TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NONE OF THE GUIDANCE REALLY MATCHING UP WELL
AT THIS POINT. IN GENERAL THOUGH...EXPECT COOLER MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS START THE PERIOD SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 71 61 74 59 73 / 90 70 50 40 40
VICTORIA 71 62 74 55 73 / 90 80 50 40 50
LAREDO 74 57 73 55 71 / 50 40 70 40 40
ALICE 70 60 75 55 73 / 70 60 60 40 40
ROCKPORT 73 63 71 62 71 / 90 80 40 30 40
COTULLA 69 58 70 54 71 / 60 40 70 50 50
KINGSVILLE 71 60 76 56 74 / 80 60 50 40 30
NAVY CORPUS 71 64 74 62 72 / 90 70 40 30 40
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
950 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO
BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFUSE AROUND GALVESTON BAY BUT WAS STILL
EVIDENT ALONG THE COAST TO THE SOUTH. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED
PW/S OF 1.6 AT BOTH KCRP AND KLCH...WHILE THE SREF HAD 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SPLITTING JET WAS EVIDENT AT
200 AND 300 MB AND THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WAS SOUTH TO NORTH. GIVEN
THE PATTERN AND AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY.
BOTH THE NAM12 AND THE RAP13 SLOWLY LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
AND BOTH MODELS AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THIS UPDATE RAISED POPS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND ADDED
ISOLATED SEVERE DURING AFTERNOON.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION.
CORRECTION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED VALID
UNTIL 12 NOON FOR BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...AND
WHARTON COUNTIES. STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND
REGION AND ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE MAINLY SCT TSRA FROM
WEST OF KSGR TO KCXO/KUTS. CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
QUICKLY NORTH AROUND 35KTS. BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION SO FAR
WILL BE THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT FOR THIS
AXIS OF CONVECTION TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY AND IMPACT KIAH/KHOU
THROUGH 18Z. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY WITH JUST
ISO TSRA POSSIBLE SO WILL MENTION THAT AS VCTS IN TAFS. SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN HELPFUL BUT HRRR HAS BEEN THE
ONLY MODEL TO SHOW THE FRONT THROUGH KCLL AND COULD REACH KUTS
LATER TODAY. CIGS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT COULD DECREASE INTO IFR CATEGORY
AFTER 00-02Z. GFS/NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...WILL GO
WITH VCTS AND IFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATE THUR MORNING.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS OVER SE TEXAS. WILL
KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP FOCUS THE RAINFALL. THE
MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN SAN
ANTONIO AND PALESTINE. A SECOND BOUNDARY WAS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED
BY THE SYSTEM...AND THE NAEFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
PW/S ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 50 KNOTS WILL HELP
DEVELOP STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BEST ESTIMATES ARE THAT BETWEEN 3
AND 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THE ECMWF DOES NOT
BRING THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL FRIDAY. THE MODEL THEN
SHEARS THE LOW OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVERHEAD
THROUGH SATURDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PW/S OF ABOUT 1.8
OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY.
40
MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING LATER THIS MORNING SO
THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM/12Z. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6AM TO 3PM AS ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST DUE TO THE LONG PERSISTENT FETCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY BUT DECREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY. LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED.
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WATER LEVELS WILL REACH
ABOUT 1.5 FEET TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND IMPACTS OVER THE
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
39/40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 61 72 58 73 / 80 90 70 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 62 76 60 75 / 90 90 50 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 64 72 63 72 / 100 90 50 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
817 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR SVR WATCH NUMBER 40 UNTIL NOON.
ALSO...DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS BEE...GOLIAD AND VICTORIA
COUNTIES. UPPER JET AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST...THE LATTER DOING SO BY NOON (HENCE THE WATCH TIL NOON).
UPDATES ARE OUT. SCA IS ON-GOING AND LOOKS OK FOR NOW (WILL LOOK
AT IT A BIT MORE BUT HAVE BIGGER FISH TO FRY FOR NOW).
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS UPPER
LOW REMAINS TO THE WEST AND COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH REMARKS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SHRA REMARKS FOR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS RETURN TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS YET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. STORMS HAVE BEHAVED THUS FAR AND CURRENT THINKING
KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4AM. UPPER LOW BACK TO THE WEST WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AT THE
SFC...TROUGH WILL HUG THE COASTLINE TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR RENEWED CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY OR SO AND WILL CARRY
HIGHEST POPS TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. SOME MODERATE TO AT
TIMES HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS/SMALL HAIL MAY
EXIST ON THURSDAY AS COLD CORE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.
LASTLY...A HIGH RISK RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST TODAY ALONG AREA
BEACHES AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS COMBINE WITH ELEVATED SWELL
HEIGHTS.
MARINE...GUSTS DID NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF
WATERS SO HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING. HAVE REPLACED THE GALE
WARNING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL FINALLY START TO KICK OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND WILL TRACK ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. ONCE THE
LOW GETS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY. HAVE JUST SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS LINGERING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN DRY FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO NOT BRING RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT
BROAD TROUGH SHIFTING WEST BY TUES/WED. MIN POSITION OF UPPER AND
SURFACE LOW WILL IMPACT THE DETAILS OF WIND/TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NONE OF THE GUIDANCE REALLY MATCHING UP WELL
AT THIS POINT. IN GENERAL THOUGH...EXPECT COOLER MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS START THE PERIOD SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 61 74 59 73 / 90 70 50 40 30
VICTORIA 75 62 74 55 73 / 90 80 50 40 40
LAREDO 77 57 73 55 71 / 50 40 70 40 30
ALICE 79 60 75 55 73 / 70 60 60 40 30
ROCKPORT 75 63 71 62 71 / 90 80 40 30 30
COTULLA 76 58 70 54 71 / 60 40 70 50 40
KINGSVILLE 79 60 76 56 74 / 80 60 50 40 30
NAVY CORPUS 74 64 74 62 72 / 90 70 40 30 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
806 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION.
CORRECTION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED VALID
UNTIL 12 NOON FOR BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...AND
WHARTON COUNTIES. STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND
REGION AND ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE MAINLY SCT TSRA FROM
WEST OF KSGR TO KCXO/KUTS. CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
QUICKLY NORTH AROUND 35KTS. BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION SO FAR
WILL BE THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT FOR THIS
AXIS OF CONVECTION TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY AND IMPACT KIAH/KHOU
THROUGH 18Z. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY WITH JUST
ISO TSRA POSSIBLE SO WILL MENTION THAT AS VCTS IN TAFS. SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN HELPFUL BUT HRRR HAS BEEN THE
ONLY MODEL TO SHOW THE FRONT THROUGH KCLL AND COULD REACH KUTS
LATER TODAY. CIGS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT COULD DECREASE INTO IFR CATEGORY
AFTER 00-02Z. GFS/NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...WILL GO
WITH VCTS AND IFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATE THUR MORNING.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS OVER SE TEXAS. WILL
KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP FOCUS THE RAINFALL. THE
MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN SAN
ANTONIO AND PALESTINE. A SECOND BOUNDARY WAS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED
BY THE SYSTEM...AND THE NAEFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
PW/S ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 50 KNOTS WILL HELP
DEVELOP STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BEST ESTIMATES ARE THAT BETWEEN 3
AND 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THE ECMWF DOES NOT
BRING THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL FRIDAY. THE MODEL THEN
SHEARS THE LOW OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVERHEAD
THROUGH SATURDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PW/S OF ABOUT 1.8
OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY.
40
MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING LATER THIS MORNING SO
THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM/12Z. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6AM TO 3PM AS ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST DUE TO THE LONG PERSISTENT FETCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY BUT DECREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY. LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED.
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WATER LEVELS WILL REACH
ABOUT 1.5 FEET TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND IMPACTS OVER THE
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
39/40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 61 72 58 73 / 80 90 70 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 62 76 60 75 / 90 90 50 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 64 72 63 72 / 100 90 50 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
804 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED VALID UNTIL 12 NOON FOR
BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...AND WHARTON COUNTIES.
STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND REGION AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
MAIN HAZARDS ARE TORNADOES AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE MAINLY SCT TSRA FROM
WEST OF KSGR TO KCXO/KUTS. CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
QUICKLY NORTH AROUND 35KTS. BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION SO FAR
WILL BE THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT FOR THIS
AXIS OF CONVECTION TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY AND IMPACT KIAH/KHOU
THROUGH 18Z. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY WITH JUST
ISO TSRA POSSIBLE SO WILL MENTION THAT AS VCTS IN TAFS. SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN HELPFUL BUT HRRR HAS BEEN THE
ONLY MODEL TO SHOW THE FRONT THROUGH KCLL AND COULD REACH KUTS
LATER TODAY. CIGS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT COULD DECREASE INTO IFR CATEGORY
AFTER 00-02Z. GFS/NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...WILL GO
WITH VCTS AND IFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATE THUR MORNING.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS OVER SE TEXAS. WILL
KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP FOCUS THE RAINFALL. THE
MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN SAN
ANTONIO AND PALESTINE. A SECOND BOUNDARY WAS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED
BY THE SYSTEM...AND THE NAEFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
PW/S ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 50 KNOTS WILL HELP
DEVELOP STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BEST ESTIMATES ARE THAT BETWEEN 3
AND 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THE ECMWF DOES NOT
BRING THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL FRIDAY. THE MODEL THEN
SHEARS THE LOW OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVERHEAD
THROUGH SATURDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PW/S OF ABOUT 1.8
OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY.
40
MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING LATER THIS MORNING SO
THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM/12Z. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6AM TO 3PM AS ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST DUE TO THE LONG PERSISTENT FETCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY BUT DECREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY. LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED.
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WATER LEVELS WILL REACH
ABOUT 1.5 FEET TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND IMPACTS OVER THE
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
39/40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 61 72 58 73 / 80 90 70 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 62 76 60 75 / 90 90 50 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 64 72 63 72 / 100 90 50 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
551 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE MAINLY SCT TSRA FROM
WEST OF KSGR TO KCXO/KUTS. CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
QUICKLY NORTH AROUND 35KTS. BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION SO FAR
WILL BE THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT FOR THIS
AXIS OF CONVECTION TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY AND IMPACT KIAH/KHOU
THROUGH 18Z. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY WITH JUST
ISO TSRA POSSIBLE SO WILL MENTION THAT AS VCTS IN TAFS. SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN HELPFUL BUT HRRR HAS BEEN THE
ONLY MODEL TO SHOW THE FRONT THROUGH KCLL AND COULD REACH KUTS
LATER TODAY. CIGS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT COULD DECREASE INTO IFR CATEGORY
AFTER 00-02Z. GFS/NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDRESTORM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...WILL GO WITH
VCTS AND IFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATE THUR MORNING.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS OVER SE TEXAS. WILL
KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP FOCUS THE RAINFALL. THE
MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN SAN
ANTONIO AND PALESTINE. A SECOND BOUNDARY WAS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED
BY THE SYSTEM...AND THE NAEFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
PW/S ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 50 KNOTS WILL HELP
DEVELOP STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BEST ESTIMATES ARE THAT BETWEEN 3
AND 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THE ECMWF DOES NOT
BRING THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL FRIDAY. THE MODEL THEN
SHEARS THE LOW OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVERHEAD
THROUGH SATURDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PW/S OF ABOUT 1.8
OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY.
40
MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING LATER THIS MORNING SO
THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM/12Z. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6AM TO 3PM AS ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST DUE TO THE LONG PERSISTENT FETCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY BUT DECREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY. LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED.
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WATER LEVELS WILL REACH
ABOUT 1.5 FEET TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND IMPACTS OVER THE
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
39/40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 61 72 58 73 / 80 90 70 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 62 76 60 75 / 90 90 50 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 64 72 63 72 / 100 90 50 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
548 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS UPPER
LOW REMAINS TO THE WEST AND COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH REMARKS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SHRA REMARKS FOR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS RETURN TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS YET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. STORMS HAVE BEHAVED THUS FAR AND CURRENT THINKING
KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4AM. UPPER LOW BACK TO THE WEST WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AT THE
SFC...TROUGH WILL HUG THE COASTLINE TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR RENEWED CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY OR SO AND WILL CARRY
HIGHEST POPS TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. SOME MODERATE TO AT
TIMES HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS/SMALL HAIL MAY
EXIST ON THURSDAY AS COLD CORE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.
LASTLY...A HIGH RISK RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST TODAY ALONG AREA
BEACHES AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS COMBINE WITH ELEVATED SWELL
HEIGHTS.
MARINE...GUSTS DID NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF
WATERS SO HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING. HAVE REPLACED THE GALE
WARNING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL FINALLY START TO KICK OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND WILL TRACK ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. ONCE THE
LOW GETS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY. HAVE JUST SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS LINGERING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN DRY FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO NOT BRING RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT
BROAD TROUGH SHIFTING WEST BY TUES/WED. MIN POSITION OF UPPER AND
SURFACE LOW WILL IMPACT THE DETAILS OF WIND/TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NONE OF THE GUIDANCE REALLY MATCHING UP WELL
AT THIS POINT. IN GENERAL THOUGH...EXPECT COOLER MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS START THE PERIOD SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 61 74 59 73 / 70 70 50 40 30
VICTORIA 76 62 74 55 73 / 90 80 50 40 40
LAREDO 78 57 73 55 71 / 50 40 70 40 30
ALICE 80 60 75 55 73 / 70 60 60 40 30
ROCKPORT 76 63 71 62 71 / 80 80 40 30 30
COTULLA 77 58 70 54 71 / 60 40 70 50 40
KINGSVILLE 80 60 76 56 74 / 70 60 50 40 30
NAVY CORPUS 75 64 74 62 72 / 80 70 40 30 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
TB/78...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
413 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. STORMS HAVE BEHAVED THUS FAR AND CURRENT THINKING
KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4AM. UPPER LOW BACK TO THE WEST WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AT THE
SFC...TROUGH WILL HUG THE COASTLINE TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR RENEWED CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY OR SO AND WILL CARRY
HIGHEST POPS TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. SOME MODERATE TO AT
TIMES HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS/SMALL HAIL MAY
EXIST ON THURSDAY AS COLD CORE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.
LASTLY...A HIGH RISK RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST TODAY ALONG AREA
BEACHES AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS COMBINE WITH ELEVATED SWELL
HEIGHTS.
&&
.MARINE...GUSTS DID NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF
WATERS SO HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING. HAVE REPLACED THE GALE
WARNING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL FINALLY START TO KICK OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND WILL TRACK ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. ONCE THE
LOW GETS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY. HAVE JUST SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS LINGERING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN DRY FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO NOT BRING RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT
BROAD TROUGH SHIFTING WEST BY TUES/WED. MIN POSITION OF UPPER AND
SURFACE LOW WILL IMPACT THE DETAILS OF WIND/TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NONE OF THE GUIDANCE REALLY MATCHING UP WELL
AT THIS POINT. IN GENERAL THOUGH...EXPECT COOLER MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS START THE PERIOD SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 61 74 59 73 / 70 70 50 40 30
VICTORIA 76 62 74 55 73 / 90 80 50 40 40
LAREDO 78 57 73 55 71 / 50 40 70 40 30
ALICE 80 60 75 55 73 / 70 60 60 40 30
ROCKPORT 76 63 71 62 71 / 80 80 40 30 30
COTULLA 77 58 70 54 71 / 60 40 70 50 40
KINGSVILLE 80 60 76 56 74 / 70 60 50 40 30
NAVY CORPUS 75 64 74 62 72 / 80 70 40 30 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
155 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39 UNTIL 4 AM CST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/
AVIATION...
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO TRANSITION FROM THE STRONGER DISCRETE
CELLS TO BROADER AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL EXPECT
SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO REDUCE VSBYS TO LESS THAN 1
MILE...BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING AREA OF COVERAGE TO SHOW LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER. THUS WILL RUN SEVERAL
HOURS OF MINOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND KEEP PREVAILING CONDITIONS AS
MVFR ALONG WITH CIGS. AS THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE FOCUS SHIFTS
GRADUALLY EAST OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN THUNDER ALONG
I-35 TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z AND 10Z. ISOLATED CLAPS OF THUNDER MAY
THREATEN DRT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WITH COVERAGE TOO LOW TO
MENTION. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PASS SLOWLY SOUTH OF TX
WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION AND NORTHERLY
BREEZES SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CIG HEIGHTS...BUT THE CHANCE FOR MORE
RAINS MAY NOT GO COMPLETELY AWAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED EAST OF A DRY LINE POSITIONED
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. STRONGEST CELLS CONTINUE TO BE FED BY
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT
FLOW. THERE STILL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AXIS IN
THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND THE RAP IS INDICATING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7+ DEG C/KM IN THIS REGION AS WELL. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND EXTREME LIGHTNING.
TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW BUT AS THESE CELLS PUSH SLOWLY
FARTHER EAST...THEY WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A MORE FAVORABLE LCL
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL MEANS THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
REGARDING FLOOD POTENTIAL...RAINFALL HAS BEEN MOSTLY FOCUSED ALONG
A LINE FROM CENTRAL DIMMITT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH REAL COUNTY.
WHILE THE PLATEAU COUNTIES SHOULD AVOID MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL NOW THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ONGOING SOUTH OF DIMMITT AND ZAVALA
INDICATES AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH RAIN RATES OF UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE WITH FUTURE CELLS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME LINEAR AND PUSH EAST
TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR
HOWEVER VAD WIND PROFILES MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME LIKELY
DELAYING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LINE. AS SUCH...NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WATCH ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL NEED TO RE-
EVALUATE IN A FEW HOURS AS THIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 69 55 70 53 / 50 70 60 60 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 69 53 70 50 / 50 70 60 60 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 57 70 54 70 50 / 50 70 60 60 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 55 66 52 66 49 / 50 70 60 60 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 54 68 51 68 48 / 40 70 70 50 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 57 67 54 68 51 / 50 70 60 60 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 55 70 52 69 46 / 40 70 70 60 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 69 54 70 51 / 50 70 60 60 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 59 71 55 71 53 / 70 60 40 50 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 69 54 69 51 / 50 70 70 60 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 58 71 54 70 50 / 50 70 70 60 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1159 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO TRANSITION FROM THE STRONGER DISCRETE
CELLS TO BROADER AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL EXPECT
SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO REDUCE VSBYS TO LESS THAN 1
MILE...BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING AREA OF COVERAGE TO SHOW LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER. THUS WILL RUN SEVERAL
HOURS OF MINOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND KEEP PREVAILING CONDITIONS AS
MVFR ALONG WITH CIGS. AS THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE FOCUS SHIFTS
GRADUALLY EAST OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN THUNDER ALONG
I-35 TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z AND 10Z. ISOLATED CLAPS OF THUNDER MAY
THREATEN DRT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WITH COVERAGE TOO LOW TO
MENTION. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PASS SLOWLY SOUTH OF TX
WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION AND NORTHERLY
BREEZES SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CIG HEIGHTS...BUT THE CHANCE FOR MORE
RAINS MAY NOT GO COMPLETELY AWAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED EAST OF A DRY LINE POSITIONED
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. STRONGEST CELLS CONTINUE TO BE FED BY
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT
FLOW. THERE STILL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AXIS IN
THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND THE RAP IS INDICATING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7+ DEG C/KM IN THIS REGION AS WELL. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND EXTREME LIGHTNING.
TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW BUT AS THESE CELLS PUSH SLOWLY
FARTHER EAST...THEY WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A MORE FAVORABLE LCL
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL MEANS THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
REGARDING FLOOD POTENTIAL...RAINFALL HAS BEEN MOSTLY FOCUSED ALONG
A LINE FROM CENTRAL DIMMITT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH REAL COUNTY.
WHILE THE PLATEAU COUNTIES SHOULD AVOID MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL NOW THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ONGOING SOUTH OF DIMMITT AND ZAVALA
INDICATES AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH RAIN RATES OF UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE WITH FUTURE CELLS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME LINEAR AND PUSH EAST
TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR
HOWEVER VAD WIND PROFILES MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME LIKELY
DELAYING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LINE. AS SUCH...NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WATCH ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL NEED TO RE-
EVALUATE IN A FEW HOURS AS THIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 62 76 57 69 55 / 100 70 50 60 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 62 76 57 69 53 / 100 70 50 60 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 62 78 57 70 54 / 100 60 50 60 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 59 73 55 66 52 / 100 60 40 60 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 58 75 54 68 51 / 80 40 40 60 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 62 74 57 67 54 / 100 70 50 60 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 59 77 55 70 52 / 100 40 30 60 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 77 57 69 54 / 100 70 50 60 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 65 77 59 71 55 / 100 80 70 50 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 62 77 58 69 54 / 100 50 40 60 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 63 79 58 71 54 / 100 50 40 50 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1125 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
...06Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
ADDED PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST IL INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IA WHERE BETTER FOG SIGNAL
PRESENT IN HI-RES MODELS. MSAS SFC ANALYSIS ALSO DEPICTS WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA... ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
IL. ALSO NUDGED UP SKY COVER DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA ATTENDANT TO UPPER LEVEL JET. ALSO MONITORING
STRATUS NEAR LAKE MI. INTO THE OVERNIGHT 925 MB FLOW IS SHOWN TO
REMAIN NORTHERLY... BUT AFTER 09Z THROUGH 15Z THE FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHEAST WHICH COULD ADVECT SOME OF THIS STRATUS CLOSE IF NOT
INTO PORTIONS OF BUREAU...PUTNAM AND WHITESIDE COUNTIES. BUT RIGHT
NOW THE CHANCES LOOK SLIM WITH RAP AND NAM SUGGESTING WIND SPEEDS
5-10 KTS... WHICH TYPICALLY NEED CLOSER TO 15 KTS OR BETTER FOR
IMPACT. MORE FAVORED SCENARIO MAY BE STRATUS FORMATION IN THESE
SAME AREAS... BUT 00Z DVN RAOB IS FAIRLY DRY AND SO NOT SURE WILL
SEE EVEN THIS OCCUR. BOTTOM LINE IS INCREASED FOR CIRRUS BUT
OVERALL MAINTAINED MAINLY CLEAR WORDING. TEMPS JUST TWEAKED MAINLY
IN FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE DOWN IN THE LOWER
30S IF NOT AROUND 30 IN A FEW SPOTS.
MCCLURE
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
H5 WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LEAD TO
CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH SW FROM THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH BROKE UP
LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED IN THE AREA WILL
LEAD TO NO CHANCES OF POPS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THAT ON FRIDAY...CLEAR
SKIES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GEM AND GFS ARE COOLER WITH TEMPS TOMORROW...THINK THAT
THEY ARE TRYING TO HAVE THE LAKE COOL DOWN THE AIRMASS TOO MUCH.
DECIDED THAT THE ECMWF/MOSGUIDE LOOKED CORRECT SO WENT WITH THE
60S TOMORROW. COULD SEE TEMPS GET HIGHER ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET
GOOD MIXING FROM THE SUNLIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
A VERY BUSY EXTENDED FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE MIDWEST...WITH
GROWING CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD RAINS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CUT OFF AND FLOODING THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
REMAIN CUT OFF THROUGH FRIDAY....BEFORE PHASING BACK INTO THE FLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS PROCESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE EXACT
TRACK OF HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN IS NOT YET KNOW...AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED IN ALL CWA AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
POPS ARE APPROACHING CATEGORICAL LEVELS FOR THIS REASON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD...AS THE ALREADY MILD AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS NOT
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUD FORMATION UNTIL AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE RAINY AND SHOWERY LATE WEEKEND...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL SEE TRANSITION TO ANOTHER QUICK MOVING STORM. THIS STORM IS
WIDELY DIFFERENT IN MODEL FORECASTS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A NORTHERN
SOLUTION WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY...AND
THE ECMWF REMAINING FARTHER SOUTH WITH A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. THIS
EVENT WILL BE A BLEND OF MODELS IN OUR EXTENDED FORECAST...AND DOES
NOT REPRESENT EITHER THE WARM AND DRY GFS NOR THE COOLER AND WET
ECMWF...THOUGH IN TIME WE SHOULD TREND TOWARD ONE OR THE OTHER
SOLUTIONS. BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...MUCH COOLER WEATHER LOOKS TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TO END THE
WEEK.
ERVIN
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS 2-6SM IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY AM...ESPECIALLY
IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. HAVE MENTION OF FOG
AT CID BASED ON VERY LOW SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. WHILE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE OTHER SITES... THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND AND BROKEN COVERAGE OF CIRRUS
MAKES CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION. ASIDE FROM
ANY EARLY AM PATCHY FOG EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO E/SE 5-10 KTS ON FRIDAY... AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
401 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS
AND MORE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
BRINGING WITH IT A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS.
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MODEL SOUNDINGS
HOLD ON TO A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS. THE AIR ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL BE VERY DRY SO EXPECT
THE DRY AIR ALOFT TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT THE SATURATED LAYER BELOW.
THE PROBLEM LIES ON TIMING THIS. THE OTHER PROBLEM WILL BE THE
BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD WHICH SHOULD COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY. THIS WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE AND SLOW THE MIXING PROCESS.
HAVE INDICATED A DECREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF HIGH CIRRUS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS
FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH. STILL SEEING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL PROGRESS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL ACTUALLY FALL. HIGHS ABOUT 20
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY.
MAINTAINED HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
A DEEP SOUTH CUT-OFF LOW IMPROVES ASCENT FIELDS AND SPREADS RAIN
OVER ENTIRE REGION. THE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED TO CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AN
ADJUSTED SUPERBLEND OF MODELS WAS USED FOR LONG TERM PROGNOSIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT THIS CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
REGION OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT IFR AND MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 14Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL END BY 9Z AREA WIDE. THE LATEST
GRIDDED LAMP AND RUC13 HAVE DELAYED DEPARTURE OF MVFR CLOUDS UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON SO PUSHED BACK ONSET TIME OF VFR CLOUDS INTO THE
16-20Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS
SCOUR A FEW HOURS SOONER GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. ONCE VFR IS
ESTABLISHED WILL CARRY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1257 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
BEHIND THE RAIN...A DRY AND COOLER DAY. RAIN WILL RETURN LATER
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. COMPOSED THE POP
FORECAST USING A COMBINATION OF HIRES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS.
TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES DATA.
FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND BRINGING
WITH IT A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...HIGHS WILL STILL BE
NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS
FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH. STILL SEEING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL PROGRESS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL ACTUALLY FALL. HIGHS ABOUT 20
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY.
MAINTAINED HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
A DEEP SOUTH CUT-OFF LOW IMPROVES ASCENT FIELDS AND SPREADS RAIN
OVER ENTIRE REGION. THE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED TO CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AN
ADJUSTED SUPERBLEND OF MODELS WAS USED FOR LONG TERM PROGNOSIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT THIS CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
REGION OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT IFR AND MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 14Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL END BY 9Z AREA WIDE. THE LATEST
GRIDDED LAMP AND RUC13 HAVE DELAYED DEPARTURE OF MVFR CLOUDS UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON SO PUSHED BACK ONSET TIME OF VFR CLOUDS INTO THE
16-20Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS
SCOUR A FEW HOURS SOONER GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. ONCE VFR IS
ESTABLISHED WILL CARRY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1152 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH AREA WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD CLEAR THE SKIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND THAT SHOULD
ALLOW OUR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A STORM SYSTEM COMING AT US FROM THE PACIFIC WILL MERGE
WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL
BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. FINALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...YET
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWER BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IT WILL BRING BACK THE
COLD AIR BY THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
OUR BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW QUICKLY DO THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THE SOONER THEY DO...THE COLDER IT WILL BE
FRIDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING THAT SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF STATES AND SEE HOW MUCH OF THAT MOISTURE GETS TO MICHIGAN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SEE THE EXTEND DISCUSSION FOR THAT).
AS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS THERE ARE TWO FEATURES THAT TYPICALLY ARE
GOOD AT PURGING THEM OUT OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SKIES. THOSE WOULD
BE THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET (UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC) AND SURFACE WINDS TURN ANTICYCLONIC. BOTH OF THOSE
THINGS HAPPEN TONIGHT. CURIOUSLY IF ONE OVERLAYS THE POLAR JET
OVER THE CLOUD IMAGES ONE CAN SEE HOW AS THE UPPER JET MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA... THE LOW CLOUDS DO IN FACT CLEAR OUT (SEE NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM). THE UPPER JET CROSSES OUR AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME ANTICYCLONIC ABOUT THE
SAME TIME. BOTH THE RAP MODEL (WHICH IS MUCH SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
SKY TONIGHT) AND THE NAM...WHICH CLEARS SKIES WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT
DO SHOW THE SKIES BEING CLEAR BY MORNING. I AM THINKING SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY 3 TO 5 AM. IF NOT. OUR LOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WILL BE TO COLD.
ANYWAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY THEN MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE WESTERN SYSTEM AND THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
HEAD OUR WAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. ANY RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. AS THERE IS
TO MUCH DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE SURFACE WARM FRONT UP
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WEAKNESS
IN THE STABILITY...LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE ALL SUPPORT HIGH POPS.
WILL RAISE THE POPS AND INCREASE THE QPF FOR THIS FEATURE.
A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY. WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...PWAT VALUES
UP OVER AN INCH...AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AS THE WAVE PASSES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND. AT THIS POINT WILL INCREASE
POPS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY...SO THAT WILL BE THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST RISK FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
A PACIFIC MID LEVEL WAVE ARRIVING EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME DECENT DYNAMICS AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT NEARS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL KEEP A RISK FOR SHOWERS
GOING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR MKG WHERE
SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL COULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT
08Z. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT 60
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN MEANS LIGHT WINDS. THE SYSTEMS
MOVING TOWARD US SATURDAY WILL NOT HAVE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SO WINDS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG THEN EITHER. SO...BOTTOM LINE
I SEE NO HEADLINE THREAT TILL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
A HANDFULL OF RIVERS ARE STILL DEALING WITH LOWLAND FLOODING. MOST
ARE WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS. OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD PROLONG THE DURATION THAT SOME RIVERS SPEND
ABOVE BANKFULL... BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO WORSEN THE EXTENT OF
THE FLOODING.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS DEEP MIXING ACROSS NRN NEB THIS AFTN WITH
THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD REACH
NEAR 700MB. FARTHER SOUTH...THESE HEIGHT APPROACH 725- 750MB WHICH
IS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES A MIDDLE OF
ROAD APPROACH...CLOSE TO THE RAP MODEL...FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 70S NORTH...LOWER 70S SOUTH. NEARLY FULL SUN IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOW PRESSURE WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT A RATHER MESSY PATTERN ALOFT...BUT REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP OVER TEXAS AND IS FORCED NORTHEAST BY AN
UPSTREAM FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE. THE BEST DPVA/MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE FA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS AND NOT ALL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN AS THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
EVEN IF RAIN IS NOT REALIZED WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS STRATUS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WHERE LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE EARLY...HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND CLEARING SKIES...HIGHS WILL
RESPOND NICELY AND RISE ABOVE 70F ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST PLACES.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE BEGINS IT/S
INITIAL BREAKDOWN TO THE EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S APPEAR LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. SW
WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL TRANSPORT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH NEAR CRITICAL RH FORECAST FOR SW NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE
LOW RH...WINDS DO NOT FAVOR LARGE FIRE SPREAD UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. NOTE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT
FAVORS LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE MODELS
SUGGESTING SOME QPF FOR THE CWA. THE TREND FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
IS A WEAKER OPEN WAVE WITH LESSER IMPACTS...THUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE BECOMING LESS CERTAIN. AT A MINIMUM...SPOTTY SHOWERS OR
EVEN A TSTORM /MODELS INDICATE UP TO A 200 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE MONDAY
EVENING/ WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COOLING TREND THEN FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MODELS KEEP THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH UNTIL THEN...KEEPING THE REGION UNSETTLED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO FOLLOW. LIGHT
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY IN THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL BE COMMON. ONCE SUN SET
OCCURS...DECOUPLING WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
A BLEND OF THE HRRR...RAP AND HRRR EXPERIMENTAL MODELS COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S PRODUCES RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 12
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP IN MANY
AREAS HOWEVER THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTN COULD PRESENT
A WEAKNESS IN THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...SWRN NEB AND
FAR NRN NEB.
THE LOESS PLAINS WILL BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 9 PM CST /8
PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
THE VERY LAST SLIVER OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE CAVALIER-NECHE AREA
OF PEMBINA COUNTY WILL CLEAR OUT BY 07Z. OTHERWISE SEEING SFC
WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP IN THE RRV AND ERN ND WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING AT TIMES TO OVER 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE AS
THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASES. TEMPS ALSO STEADY IN MANY AREAS OR IN
SOME CASES WHERE CLEARING WAS TOO LATE TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPS RISING
A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING. NO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO
THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LINGERING IN THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE CLEARING WITH
THE 18Z RUN...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE THIEF RIVER FALLS TO ROSEAU
AREAS BY SUNSET. TRIMMED HIGHS/EVENING TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR PARTS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATE OR
NOT BEFORE SUNSET. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TONIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE OR NEAR FREEZING
TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM FRIDAY AS TEMPS WILL
START OUT WARM WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE RECORDS ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S...SO EXPECTING TO BREAK THOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S IN THE GRAND FORKS AND FARGO AREAS EXPECTED. FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ALSO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
THE WARM AIR WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S (NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS) TO 60S ELSEWHERE. A PAIR OF UPPER
WAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
(SOUTH). INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A MORE PROGRESSIVE SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK...WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER SUN
NIGHT. 12Z GFS LESS STABLE THAN 00Z ECMWF...WITH NEG SHOWALTERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S...AND ELECT TO NOT INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR SUN NIGHT.
MID WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH THE ECWMF STALLING THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WHEREAS THE GFS LIFTS
THE UPPER LOW INTO CNTRL TO ERN ONTARIO BY 00Z THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL
START OUT AS RAIN TUESDAY AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MID WEEK AS COLDER
AIR IS PULLED IN BEHIND THE LOW. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON TRACK OF
SYSTEM AND WHEN THICKNESS VALUES WILL BEGIN TO FALL OFF...BUT
SUPERBLEND SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS-ECMWF.
EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME DECENT MOISTURE...HOWEVER A SHARP QPF
GRADIENT MOVING EAST TO WEST COULD LEAVE ERN ND MAINLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
A VFR FCST PD FOR THE TAF SITES AND ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE...THICKEST NORTH AND WEST AND
THINNEST SOUTH AND EAST PARTS OF THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THEN TURN SOUTHWEST AND WEST
OVER ERN ND FRI AFTN/EVE AND DIMINISH SOME.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1251 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER
SATURDAY AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO COVER ALL BUT THE LOWER SUSQ AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE POCONO AND CATSKILLS...DELINEATED BY A
AN EXTREMELY NARROW CFRB IN REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC.
CFROPA ON GOOD TRACK WITH EXPECTED TOMING. HIGH POPS CONTINUE
UNTIL MID- 3AM...WHEN THE DRY AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS. PWATS
STILL LOOK MUCH HIGHER THAN MDL QPF WOULD INDICATE. BUT FORCING IS
VERY WEAK. INFLOW FROM THE SS/W WILL TURN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE W
THIS EVENING. THE INFLOW TO THE SERN COS IS COMING FROM A SOURCE
REGION OF 40 DEWPOINT SFC OBS. ALMOST ALL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE DONE
BY 06Z ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GUID. HRRR AND RAP ARE
HANGING ONTO THINGS A BIT LONGER SO AM LEARY TO TOTALLY CUT SHRA
OFF AT THAT POINT. BUT THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT TIMING...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO LINGER MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON THE FRINGES
OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE
SHORTLY AFTER FROPA OVERNIGHT. BUT OFF-LAKE FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE STEEP/DRASTIC SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAKE
KEEP BKN CLOUDS IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO FRI AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
EXPECT THE REMAINING CLOUDS AT DAYBREAK TO BE EATEN AWAY BY THE
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOWERING INVERSION AND DAYTIME MIXING. 8H
TEMPS MAY BE CLOSE TO 0C IN THE FAR NE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE 5C OR BETTER. MIXING WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW 3500FT THO. THUS
TEMPS WILL PROB MAX OUT IN THE U40S N AND L60S S. THESE ARE STILL
10F BETTER THAN NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD IN THE
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHC FOR
SHOWERS...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED AS WELL...AS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES UP TO OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
DAYS WILL FEATURE A CHC OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES.
A RIDGE OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE 12Z GFS/GEFS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES...CENTERED ON THE
GLAKES. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT DIG THE TROUGH AS
DEEPLY...AND CREATES A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT FRIDAY.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
AIRMASS NOT REAL MOIST SE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND VERY DRY AIR
FCST TO WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THUS LOOKING AT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THIS AFT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM KIDI TO KIPT AT 03Z...WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH KBFD
IS REPORTING VFR CONDS AT 0330Z...UPSTREAM OBS AND NR TERM MDL
DATA POINT TOWARD PREDOMINANTLY IFR CIGS BTWN 04Z-12Z...DUE TO
POST-FRONTAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS. FURTHER
SOUTH...THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN RAIN WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN 03Z-07Z...AS PLUME OF PREFRONTAL
MOISTURE ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...A DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL RESULT IN
MORE FAVORABLE CONDS OVERNIGHT. STILL...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
RAIN/REDUCED CIGS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT OVERNIGHT. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MAINLY MVFR REDUCTIONS...OCCURRING BTWN 03Z-08Z AT
KIPT/KAOO/KUNV AND POSSIBLY BTWN 06Z-10Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LINGERING
IFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST UNTIL LATE AM AND MVFR CIGS AT KUNV/KAOO.
AFTER THAT...MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUPPORT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MIXES OUT
AND SKIES CLEAR.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY NORTH. EVENING -RA/LOW CIGS
POSS KJST/KAOO.
SUN...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP AT NIGHT.
MON...LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
TUE...AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
* HARRISBURG SMASHED THEIR REC MAX OF 72 YESTERDAY WITH A 79
DEGREE READING AT 534 PM.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
CLIMATE...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
351 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LINGERING TO THE SOUTH OF ATASCOSA COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF TODAY WITH EPISODES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...HIRES MODELS SUGGEST A
NEW ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES AND ALONG INTERSTATE 35. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AS BOTH NAM AND GFS AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES OF-4 TO -7. MAIN THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS
WOULD BE SMALL HAIL AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO PUSH AWAY FROM
THE AREA WITH SOME LINGER LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO
AN END ACROSS THE EAST WHILE CLEARING TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 60S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. A WARMING TREND
AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS COMING OUT OF THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AVERAGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES OVER THE AREA AND A LONG
WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 55 75 57 84 / 60 50 10 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 54 75 56 84 / 60 50 10 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 54 76 56 84 / 70 40 10 0 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 52 72 57 81 / 80 50 20 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 52 78 54 85 / 70 20 - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 54 72 57 83 / 70 50 20 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 53 76 52 85 / 60 30 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 54 74 57 84 / 60 40 10 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 57 75 59 83 / 50 40 10 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 55 75 57 84 / 70 40 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 55 77 57 85 / 70 40 10 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WAS PROVIDING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER
STRATUS CONTINUED TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A
RELATIVELY DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD FURTHER NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. 15Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON TEMPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION...THINK THE CIRRUS WILL
BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...POTENTIALLY THICKENING FURTHER
LATE TODAY AS THE MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
LIFT BACK NORTH. THE BIGGER QUESTION LIES WITH THE LOWER STRATUS
DECK OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MAY KEEP THIS DECK FROM
SHIFTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS BACK ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO. HAVE GONE MUCH
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT...AND THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTH ALL DAY.
WITH GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE...GENERALLY LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF FURTHER
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE THE STRATUS LINGERS.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY THIS EVENING...BUT OVERNIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP EAT AWAY
WITH ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...SO LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE...KEEPING
THE ENTIRE NORTH HALF DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE SOUTH WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
ON SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN...BUT OVERALL FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. ALLOWED POPS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SATURDAY NIGHT BETTER FORCING WILL MOVE IN THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. WHILE THE LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL LOOK GOOD ENOUGH TO GO LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW.
WITH THE UPPER LOW /NOW REALLY A TROUGH/ STILL MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WENT LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS. AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES TO
OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT LOW END LIKELY POPS AS BETTER
FORCING WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTH.
SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL ROB
MOISTURE FROM THE AREA AND COULD RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN OR
AT LEAST LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER PATTERN
TRANSITIONS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WEST AND EJECTING
SHORTWAVES TO A BROAD TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
AN UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY
MAY BE AVAILABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION OF
CHOICE BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT.
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
PROVIDING MOMENTARY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
70S FOR TUESDAY AND DECREASED POPS TO DRY DURING THAT TIME FROM
SLIGHT CHANCES. AFTER THAT MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN AND
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF WAVES/PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL FEATURES LEADS
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ACCEPTED INITIALIZATION OF SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS WITH NO CHANGES DURING THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 11/1500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
SOME IFR/MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER KBMG AND KIND. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS DON/T SHOW THEM AT ALL. HRRR SHOWS THESE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. RUC HAS THEM HANGING AROUND MUCH
OF THE DAY. FOR NOW LOOKING AT SATELLITE LOOP PREFER THE HRRR
SOLUTION. THUS WILL ADD A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR THESE
LOWER CEILINGS AT KBMG AND KIND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WOULD NOT SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AFTER TOWARD 12Z AT
HUF AND BMG AND AFTER 15Z AT IND. FOR NOW...WILL BRING VCSH TO IND
AT 15Z SATURDAY. SHOULD ONLY SEE CIRRUS OVERHEAD TODAY AND WITH
INCREASING MID DECK TOWARD 12 SATURDAY.
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO CENTRAL INDIANA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. THIS DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS HIGH
PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STEADY FLOW OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA
THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. HARD TO TELL AT THE MOMENT HOW THICK THE HIGH
CLOUDS ARE...BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY. WILL
GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE DAY AS A WHOLE.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME THANKS TO THESE CLOUDS...WITH UPPER
50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY THIS EVENING...BUT OVERNIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP EAT AWAY
WITH ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...SO LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE...KEEPING
THE ENTIRE NORTH HALF DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE SOUTH WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
ON SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN...BUT OVERALL FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. ALLOWED POPS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SATURDAY NIGHT BETTER FORCING WILL MOVE IN THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. WHILE THE LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL LOOK GOOD ENOUGH TO GO LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW.
WITH THE UPPER LOW /NOW REALLY A TROUGH/ STILL MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WENT LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS. AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES TO
OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT LOW END LIKELY POPS AS BETTER
FORCING WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTH.
SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL ROB
MOISTURE FROM THE AREA AND COULD RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN OR
AT LEAST LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER PATTERN
TRANSITIONS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WEST AND EJECTING
SHORTWAVES TO A BROAD TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
AN UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY
MAY BE AVAILABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION OF
CHOICE BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT.
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
PROVIDING MOMENTARY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
70S FOR TUESDAY AND DECREASED POPS TO DRY DURING THAT TIME FROM
SLIGHT CHANCES. AFTER THAT MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN AND
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF WAVES/PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL FEATURES LEADS
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ACCEPTED INITIALIZATION OF SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS WITH NO CHANGES DURING THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 11/1500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
SOME IFR/MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER KBMG AND KIND. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS DON/T SHOW THEM AT ALL. HRRR SHOWS THESE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. RUC HAS THEM HANGING AROUND MUCH
OF THE DAY. FOR NOW LOOKING AT SATELLITE LOOP PREFER THE HRRR
SOLUTION. THUS WILL ADD A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR THESE
LOWER CEILINGS AT KBMG AND KIND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WOULD NOT SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AFTER TOWARD 12Z AT
HUF AND BMG AND AFTER 15Z AT IND. FOR NOW...WILL BRING VCSH TO IND
AT 15Z SATURDAY. SHOULD ONLY SEE CIRRUS OVERHEAD TODAY AND WITH
INCREASING MID DECK TOWARD 12 SATURDAY.
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
927 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
RADAR IS INDICATING RAINS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS SE TX AND SRN LA
AS THE UPPER LVL LOW IS STILL ANCHORED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE
LOCATED NEAR HOU TMRW. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO EXIT CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND LOWER ACADIANA. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES TODAY...BUT THINK THAT MVFR CIGS WILL
BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH VFR CEILINGS
FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. WILL BRING BACK MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
UPDATE...
PER LATEST TRENDS OF STRONGEST SHRA/TSRA MOVING FASTER INLAND OVER
LA AND HRRR FORECAST FINALLY COMING ABOARD...LOWERED POPS AND SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE SOONER THIS MORNING FROM W TO EAST THIS MORNING. STILL COULD
HAVE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GULF...THUS LEAVING 40-60%
LATER THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SLOW MOVING VIGOROUS UPPER STORM
SYSTEM OVER OLD MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY IN S TX ALMOST OVER
BROWNSVILLE...CONTINUING TO PUMP SHRA/TSRA OVER MOST OF THE GULF
SPREADING N INTO SE TX/LA/MS THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...RADAR
SHOWING ONE SIGNIFICANT PULSE OF ENERGY AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SPREADING INLAND ACROSS C
AND SC LA FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THUS...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER C AND SC LA...AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. FURTHER INTO THE GULF...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...AND PROGGED TO SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS
MORNING ACROSS SE TX/LA. TRIED TO TIME THE PERIODS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN IN 3 HRLY SEGMENTS...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN NOW MOVING INLAND FASTER...LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SE TX/C AND
S LA THRU 6 PM TODAY. FOR THE SE TX...EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.
FOR C AND S LA...EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES.
THE UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING NE SAT AND OUT OF
OUR REGION BY SAT NIGHT. SO...MIGHT HAVE A BREAK THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECTING ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP BEFORE THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS NE LATE SAT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ARKLATEX...BUT
LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWN MUCH LESS MOISTURE ALOFT TO WORK
WITH SUN...SO AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE WELL INTO TUE. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FOR THU/FRI...COULD BE A WET COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A GULF LOW AND STALLED FRONT.
DML
MARINE...
ELEVATED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN 20-60NM MARINE ZONES
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...SUBSIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. FOR THIS...GOING
WITH A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S OVER
LOWER/MID 60S WATER TEMPS AROUND VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS...AREAS
OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD LIFT A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY....DIMINISHING SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
DML
HYDROLOGY...
RECORD POOL LEVELS AND RELEASES AT TOLEDO BEND (LAST REPORT
YESTERDAY WAS 174.36 FT WITH RELEASES OVER 200,000 CFS) HAS
RESULTED IN RECORD FLOODING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM THE SABINE
RIVER AT BURKEVILLE...WITH A READING OF 52.6 FEET AT 1 AM (OLD
RECORD WAS 48.1 FEET ON 02/01/1999). MAJOR FLOODING IS ONGOING
AND WILL CONTINUE FURTHER DOWN THE SABINE AT BON WIER...AND
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE RECORD LEVEL AT DEWEYVILLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...BAYOU ANACOCO NEAR ROSEPINE HAS ALSO BROKE A RECORD
LEVEL REPORTING AT 29.0 FT AT 1:45 AM (OLD RECORD WAS 28.4 FEET ON
05/19/1953). ALONG THE CALCASIEU RIVER...MODERATE TO MAJOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM
GLENMORA TO OLD TOWN BAY.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 62 74 58 / 70 40 50 20
LCH 75 62 75 62 / 50 30 30 10
LFT 75 64 76 61 / 60 50 50 10
BPT 76 61 75 63 / 50 20 30 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
041>045-052>055-073-074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GMZ472-475.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
542 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO EXIT CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND LOWER ACADIANA. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES TODAY...BUT THINK THAT MVFR CIGS WILL
BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH VFR CEILINGS
FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. WILL BRING BACK MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
UPDATE...
PER LATEST TRENDS OF STRONGEST SHRA/TSRA MOVING FASTER INLAND OVER
LA AND HRRR FORECAST FINALLY COMING ABOARD...LOWERED POPS AND SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE SOONER THIS MORNING FROM W TO EAST THIS MORNING. STILL COULD
HAVE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GULF...THUS LEAVING 40-60%
LATER THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SLOW MOVING VIGOROUS UPPER STORM
SYSTEM OVER OLD MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY IN S TX ALMOST OVER
BROWNSVILLE...CONTINUING TO PUMP SHRA/TSRA OVER MOST OF THE GULF
SPREADING N INTO SE TX/LA/MS THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...RADAR
SHOWING ONE SIGNIFICANT PULSE OF ENERGY AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SPREADING INLAND ACROSS C
AND SC LA FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THUS...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER C AND SC LA...AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. FURTHER INTO THE GULF...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...AND PROGGED TO SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS
MORNING ACROSS SE TX/LA. TRIED TO TIME THE PERIODS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN IN 3 HRLY SEGMENTS...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN NOW MOVING INLAND FASTER...LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SE TX/C AND
S LA THRU 6 PM TODAY. FOR THE SE TX...EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.
FOR C AND S LA...EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES.
THE UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING NE SAT AND OUT OF
OUR REGION BY SAT NIGHT. SO...MIGHT HAVE A BREAK THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECTING ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP BEFORE THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS NE LATE SAT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ARKLATEX...BUT
LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWN MUCH LESS MOISTURE ALOFT TO WORK
WITH SUN...SO AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE WELL INTO TUE. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FOR THU/FRI...COULD BE A WET COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A GULF LOW AND STALLED FRONT.
DML
MARINE...
ELEVATED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN 20-60NM MARINE ZONES
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...SUBSIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. FOR THIS...GOING
WITH A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S OVER
LOWER/MID 60S WATER TEMPS AROUND VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS...AREAS
OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD LIFT A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY....DIMINISHING SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
DML
HYDROLOGY...
RECORD POOL LEVELS AND RELEASES AT TOLEDO BEND (LAST REPORT
YESTERDAY WAS 174.36 FT WITH RELEASES OVER 200,000 CFS) HAS
RESULTED IN RECORD FLOODING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM THE SABINE
RIVER AT BURKEVILLE...WITH A READING OF 52.6 FEET AT 1 AM (OLD
RECORD WAS 48.1 FEET ON 02/01/1999). MAJOR FLOODING IS ONGOING
AND WILL CONTINUE FURTHER DOWN THE SABINE AT BON WIER...AND
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE RECORD LEVEL AT DEWEYVILLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...BAYOU ANACOCO NEAR ROSEPINE HAS ALSO BROKE A RECORD
LEVEL REPORTING AT 29.0 FT AT 1:45 AM (OLD RECORD WAS 28.4 FEET ON
05/19/1953). ALONG THE CALCASIEU RIVER...MODERATE TO MAJOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM
GLENMORA TO OLD TOWN BAY.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 62 74 58 / 100 40 50 20
LCH 75 62 75 62 / 60 30 30 10
LFT 75 64 76 61 / 100 50 50 10
BPT 76 61 75 63 / 60 20 30 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
052>055-073-074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GMZ472-475.
&&
$$
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
426 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
PER LATEST TRENDS OF STRONGEST SHRA/TSRA MOVING FASTER INLAND OVER
LA AND HRRR FORECAST FINALLY COMING ABOARD...LOWERED POPS AND SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE SOONER THIS MORNING FROM W TO EAST THIS MORNING. STILL COULD
HAVE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GULF...THUS LEAVING 40-60%
LATER THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SLOW MOVING VIGOROUS UPPER STORM
SYSTEM OVER OLD MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY IN S TX ALMOST OVER
BROWNSVILLE...CONTINUING TO PUMP SHRA/TSRA OVER MOST OF THE GULF
SPREADING N INTO SE TX/LA/MS THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...RADAR
SHOWING ONE SIGNIFICANT PULSE OF ENERGY AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SPREADING INLAND ACROSS C
AND SC LA FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THUS...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER C AND SC LA...AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. FURTHER INTO THE GULF...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...AND PROGGED TO SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS
MORNING ACROSS SE TX/LA. TRIED TO TIME THE PERIODS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN IN 3 HRLY SEGMENTS...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN NOW MOVING INLAND FASTER...LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SE TX/C AND
S LA THRU 6 PM TODAY. FOR THE SE TX...EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.
FOR C AND S LA...EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES.
THE UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING NE SAT AND OUT OF
OUR REGION BY SAT NIGHT. SO...MIGHT HAVE A BREAK THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECTING ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP BEFORE THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS NE LATE SAT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ARKLATEX...BUT
LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWN MUCH LESS MOISTURE ALOFT TO WORK
WITH SUN...SO AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE WELL INTO TUE. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FOR THU/FRI...COULD BE A WET COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A GULF LOW AND STALLED FRONT.
DML
MARINE...
ELEVATED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN 20-60NM MARINE ZONES
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...SUBSIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. FOR THIS...GOING
WITH A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S OVER
LOWER/MID 60S WATER TEMPS AROUND VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS...AREAS
OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD LIFT A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY....DIMINISHING SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
DML
HYDROLOGY...
RECORD POOL LEVELS AND RELEASES AT TOLEDO BEND (LAST REPORT
YESTERDAY WAS 174.36 FT WITH RELEASES OVER 200,000 CFS) HAS
RESULTED IN RECORD FLOODING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM THE SABINE
RIVER AT BURKEVILLE...WITH A READING OF 52.6 FEET AT 1 AM (OLD
RECORD WAS 48.1 FEET ON 02/01/1999). MAJOR FLOODING IS ONGOING
AND WILL CONTINUE FURTHER DOWN THE SABINE AT BON WIER...AND
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE RECORD LEVEL AT DEWEYVILLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...BAYOU ANACOCO NEAR ROSEPINE HAS ALSO BROKE A RECORD
LEVEL REPORTING AT 29.0 FT AT 1:45 AM (OLD RECORD WAS 28.4 FEET ON
05/19/1953). ALONG THE CALCASIEU RIVER...MODERATE TO MAJOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM
GLENMORA TO OLD TOWN BAY.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 62 74 58 / 100 40 50 20
LCH 75 62 75 62 / 60 30 30 10
LFT 75 64 76 61 / 100 50 50 10
BPT 76 61 75 63 / 60 20 30 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
052>055-073-074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GMZ472-475.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
518 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS DEEP MIXING ACROSS NRN NEB THIS AFTN WITH
THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD REACH
NEAR 700MB. FARTHER SOUTH...THESE HEIGHT APPROACH 725- 750MB WHICH
IS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES A MIDDLE OF
ROAD APPROACH...CLOSE TO THE RAP MODEL...FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 70S NORTH...LOWER 70S SOUTH. NEARLY FULL SUN IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOW PRESSURE WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT A RATHER MESSY PATTERN ALOFT...BUT REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP OVER TEXAS AND IS FORCED NORTHEAST BY AN
UPSTREAM FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE. THE BEST DPVA/MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE FA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS AND NOT ALL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN AS THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
EVEN IF RAIN IS NOT REALIZED WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS STRATUS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WHERE LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE EARLY...HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND CLEARING SKIES...HIGHS WILL
RESPOND NICELY AND RISE ABOVE 70F ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST PLACES.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE BEGINS IT/S
INITIAL BREAKDOWN TO THE EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S APPEAR LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. SW
WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL TRANSPORT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH NEAR CRITICAL RH FORECAST FOR SW NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE
LOW RH...WINDS DO NOT FAVOR LARGE FIRE SPREAD UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. NOTE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT
FAVORS LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE MODELS
SUGGESTING SOME QPF FOR THE CWA. THE TREND FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
IS A WEAKER OPEN WAVE WITH LESSER IMPACTS...THUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE BECOMING LESS CERTAIN. AT A MINIMUM...SPOTTY SHOWERS OR
EVEN A TSTORM /MODELS INDICATE UP TO A 200 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE MONDAY
EVENING/ WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COOLING TREND THEN FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MODELS KEEP THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH UNTIL THEN...KEEPING THE REGION UNSETTLED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SRN
CANADA...WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
A BLEND OF THE HRRR...RAP AND HRRR EXPERIMENTAL MODELS COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S PRODUCES RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 12
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP IN MANY
AREAS HOWEVER THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTN COULD PRESENT
A WEAKNESS IN THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...SWRN NEB AND
FAR NRN NEB.
THE LOESS PLAINS WILL BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 9 PM CST /8
PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1001 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...LEADING TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MENAGERIE OF CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. STRATUS
REMAINS ACROSS NRN KY...WRAPPING AROUND CINCINNATI AND UP ACROSS
THE MIAMI VALLEY INTO CENTRAL OHIO. MEANWHILE...A DRY SLOT IN THE
LOW CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY W TO THE
CINCY ERN SUBURBS...WHILE THE REAL CLEARING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRYING TO BUILD INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO FROM NRN
INDIANA.
BASED ON THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT UP
TO ABOUT H8....SO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND MIX
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...RESULTING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...LOWERED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING NORTH INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK 20-25 KNOT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL
PUSH UP TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOO...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY REMAINS FAIRLY MARGINAL BUT WITH A BIT
OF A DIURNAL UPTICK THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SECOND UPPER TROUGH...WITH A CLOSED LOW PRESENT...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO
WAVES...ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND BEYOND.
AGAIN...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDER...MAINLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE OVERALL SCENARIO THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD HAS BEEN HANDLED
QUITE WELL BY THE SUITE OF MODELS...IN TERMS OF BOTH TIMING AND THE
OVERALL PLACEMENT OF THE MAJOR FEATURES. THE SECOND TROUGH / UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF ITS
STRENGTH...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PRESENT SIGNIFICANT FORECAST
CHALLENGES. WHILE EARLIER ECMWF RUNS ALLOWED FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEHIND THE SECOND TROUGH...THE 12Z RUN ALIGNS WITH THE 12Z
GFS/CMC AND SUGGESTS A DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK RIDGING ON TUESDAY.
SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE
PRECIPITATION...SPECIFICS REGARDING ANY POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OR
GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE REFINED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY BECOMES LARGE.
THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF AN END TO THE WARM PATTERN ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. EVEN
WHERE RAIN OCCURS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S. ANY DRY PERIODS DURING THE DAY
WILL EASILY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S...ESPECIALLY
IN CLEARING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS MORNING WITH MOST SITES MVFR.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH DRIER AIR THAT IS
FORECASTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. LATEST RUN OF THE RAP HAS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND
SLOWLY ERODING. HAVE TRENDED TAFS MORE PESSIMISTIC TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. HOLDING IN THE MOISTURE SLIGHTLY LONGER MAKES SENSE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AREA IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH ALL
SITES SHOULD BE VFR. ON SATURDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE
EAST. MOISTURE VALUES WILL START TO RISE (PWATS APPROACHING 1.3"
ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM) BUT WITH WEAK FORCING THE ONSET TIMING
OF PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN. THE COVERAGE ALSO LOOKS TO BE LOWER AT
THIS TIME. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...IFR/MVFR CIG AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
653 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...LEADING TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL HANGING
IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW CLOUDS EXTEND
BACK TO ABOUT THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER BUT THERE ARE SOME ENHANCED
CIRRUS CLOUDS FARTHER BACK TO THE WEST. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BUT WITH PLENTY OF
FAIRLY OPAQUE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE THOSE...WILL LINGER MAINLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WE SHOULD THEN START
TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SUN WE END UP WITH LATER TODAY. WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE MID
50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING NORTH INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK 20-25 KNOT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL
PUSH UP TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOO...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY REMAINS FAIRLY MARGINAL BUT WITH A BIT
OF A DIURNAL UPTICK THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SECOND UPPER TROUGH...WITH A CLOSED LOW PRESENT...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO
WAVES...ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND BEYOND.
AGAIN...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDER...MAINLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE OVERALL SCENARIO THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD HAS BEEN HANDLED
QUITE WELL BY THE SUITE OF MODELS...IN TERMS OF BOTH TIMING AND THE
OVERALL PLACEMENT OF THE MAJOR FEATURES. THE SECOND TROUGH / UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF ITS
STRENGTH...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PRESENT SIGNIFICANT FORECAST
CHALLENGES. WHILE EARLIER ECMWF RUNS ALLOWED FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEHIND THE SECOND TROUGH...THE 12Z RUN ALIGNS WITH THE 12Z
GFS/CMC AND SUGGESTS A DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK RIDGING ON TUESDAY.
SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE
PRECIPITATION...SPECIFICS REGARDING ANY POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OR
GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE REFINED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY BECOMES LARGE.
THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF AN END TO THE WARM PATTERN ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. EVEN
WHERE RAIN OCCURS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S. ANY DRY PERIODS DURING THE DAY
WILL EASILY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S...ESPECIALLY
IN CLEARING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS MORNING WITH MOST SITES MVFR.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH DRIER AIR THAT IS
FORECASTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. LATEST RUN OF THE RAP HAS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND
SLOWLY ERODING. HAVE TRENDED TAFS MORE PESSIMISTIC TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. HOLDING IN THE MOISTURE SLIGHTLY LONGER MAKES SENSE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AREA IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH ALL
SITES SHOULD BE VFR. ON SATURDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE
EAST. MOISTURE VALUES WILL START TO RISE (PWATS APPROACHING 1.3"
ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM) BUT WITH WEAK FORCING THE ONSET TIMING
OF PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN. THE COVERAGE ALSO LOOKS TO BE LOWER AT
THIS TIME. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...IFR/MVFR CIG AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MEDFORD OR
210 AM PST FRI MAR 11 2016
UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION
.DISCUSSION...11/00Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN INITIALLY SHOWS A
WAVE NUMBER OF THREE AROUND THE GLOBE...WHICH IS USUALLY A
STAGNANT OR RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURE ENOUGH...THERE IS REX
BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. HOWEVER...IT WILL MORPH TO A FOUR
WAVE PATTERN LATER ON TODAY...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A RESUMPTION
OF A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. IF THE 10/12Z AND 11/00Z EC
VERIFIES...THE THREE WAVE PATTERN WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A SIGNIFICANT BLOCK SETTING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CLOSER IN...IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED REX BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
SHORT WAVES EJECTED BY THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL BRING CONTINUED
ROUNDS OF WIND AND PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY DIRECTED INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THAT`S WHERE THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MEDFORD CWA WILL EXTEND FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA NORTHWEST
THROUGH WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AND
COAST RANGE. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATIC NORMALS FOR THIS DATE. WINDS WILL NOT BE A MAJOR
FACTOR...EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY. WITH 700 MB FLOW
PEAKING AT ABOUT 45 KT...IT WILL BE BREEZY THERE WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE AT WEED.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ONE WILL BE DIRECTED FARTHER NORTH. THE
INITIAL TARGET WILL BE THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST...BUT WILL
SHIFT FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME. THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WAVE
WILL STILL BE AROUND WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH YET
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND COAST
RANGE FROM CENTRAL OREGON DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ALL THIS WILL
OCCUR IN A COLDER THAN NORMAL ENVIRONMENT WITH SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNDAY HIGHS AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BY THIS TIME FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE PERSISTENT AND
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ALONG
THE COQUILLE RIVER FROM MYRTLE POINT TO THE OCEAN.
THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SNOW EVENT AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO HIGHER
WEST AND SOUTHWEST FACING TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE CASCADES...MAY
GET QUITE A BIT OF UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FEET THROUGHOUT THIS INTERVAL...SO AREAS
SUCH AS DIAMOND LAKE...CRATER LAKE...MOUNT ASHLAND...MOUNT
SHASTA...AND OTHER AREAS OVER 5000 FEET MAY WIND UP WITH 4 TO 6
FEET OF SNOW BY THE TIME IT ALL ENDS.
WEAKER WAVES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS INTERVAL. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE SATURDAY HIGHS...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY...
EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE CENTERPIECE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK. THE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES THE STORM TRACK BACK NORTH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/06Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN
BE EXPECTED IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR MOUNT SHASTA AS MOISTURE
RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN MAY ALSO BRING CIGS
DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORCAL AND SOUTHERN
KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST FRI 11 MAR 2016...STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 38N/130W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO NORTHERN CAL. HOWEVER THE 6Z NAM SHOWS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AROUND 4 AM PST THIS MORNING AND MOVING NORTH OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP ALSO HINTS AT THIS. IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT, THEN SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE, POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO, BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND REACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT, BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE FOR A 6 HOUR PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FRONT REACHING THE COAST AROUND 4 AM PST
SATURDAY, THEN MOVING ONSHORE. THE NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS ONE WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING. THE EC AND GFS SHOW
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 135W SATURDAY EVENING, RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AND MOVING INSIDE OF 130 W EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON COAST LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS MAY BE TOO FAR
NORTH TO WARRANT STORM FORCE WINDS, BUT GALES ARE LIKELY. FOR NOW
IN ORDER TO AVOID CONFUSION, WE`LL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES UNTIL
THE FIRST GALE WARNING EXPIRES. IF THAT WEREN`T ENOUGH, VERY HIGH
AND VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE IN SUNDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND HIGH SWELL COULD RESULT
IN DANGEROUS SEAS AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL
THIS PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER ENDS. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ027-028.
CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR CAZ082.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ080.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ083.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
15/15/10
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DEFINITE DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE...WE/LL
MENTION VCSH FOR THE I-35 SITES FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS THIS
MORNING. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE I-35 SITES IS
EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH SOME EXPECTED
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION
VCTS ALONG I-35 ALONG WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA FROM
11/21Z-12/01Z. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REDUCED.
OUT WEST AT KDRT...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RAIN
THIS MORNING AND WE/LL CARRY PREVAILING -SHRA THROUGH 16Z. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE
AFTERNOON HEATING HELPS INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LINGERING TO THE SOUTH OF ATASCOSA COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF TODAY WITH EPISODES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...HIRES MODELS SUGGEST A
NEW ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES AND ALONG INTERSTATE 35. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AS BOTH NAM AND GFS AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES OF-4 TO -7. MAIN THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS
WOULD BE SMALL HAIL AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO PUSH AWAY FROM
THE AREA WITH SOME LINGER LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO
AN END ACROSS THE EAST WHILE CLEARING TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 60S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. A WARMING TREND
AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS COMING OUT OF THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AVERAGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES OVER THE AREA AND A LONG
WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 55 75 57 84 / 60 50 10 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 54 75 56 84 / 60 50 10 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 54 76 56 84 / 70 40 10 0 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 52 72 57 81 / 80 50 20 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 52 78 54 85 / 70 20 - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 54 72 57 83 / 70 50 20 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 53 76 52 85 / 60 30 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 54 74 57 84 / 60 40 10 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 57 75 59 83 / 50 40 10 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 55 75 57 84 / 70 40 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 55 77 57 85 / 70 40 10 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
946 AM PST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS FROM THE COAST TO THE DESERTS. COOLER WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER BY MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AT 8 AM...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED THE CENTER OF A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AROUND 150 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. A WELL
DEFINED COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWARD DOWN PAST THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING INDICATED A SATURATED LAYER
AT THE SURFACE...WHICH COINCIDES WELL WITH THE 1/4 AND 1/2 MILE VIS
REPORTS EARLIER THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL MESAS...AS WELL AS A
DEEP MOIST LAYER ALOFT. 24-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE
STRENGTHENED...CURRENTLY +6.9 MB SAN-TPH AND +4.2 SAN-DAG.
THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY COMPACT AND QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE PRECIP...
ADVECTING THE INITIAL BAND TO THE COAST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...COMBINED WITH A TIGHTLY WOUND
VORT MAX...ARE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATEST FORECAST
TOTAL ESTIMATES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...COAST/VALLEYS 0.25"-
0.75"...MOUNTAINS 0.50"-1.25"...AND DESERTS TRACE-0.25". SNOW LEVELS
WILL START AROUND 8000 FT THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERING TO 5000 FEET
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...THE SNOW MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY
BELOW THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. SEE LAXWSWSGX FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. ALONG WITH THE RAIN AND
SNOW...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE HRRR MODEL FIRST INCREASES WESTERLY WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DEVELOP THE GUSTY WEST
WINDS AT THE COAST AND VALLEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
SEE LAXNPWSGX FOR DETAILS. RAIN...SNOW...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY COME
TO AN END AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MOIST ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER WEATHER.
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PW BETWEEN 0.80 AND 0.90...AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL REGENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODELS BUILD A LARGE DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND
DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...
111600...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS...WITH VARIABLE BASES 300-
1200 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1100-1300 FT MSL...WILL LIFT THROUGH
17Z. 17Z-21Z...SCT CLOUDS 1000-2500 FT MSL WITH PRIMARILY P6SM. SHRA
CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 21Z WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN LOOKING TO BE
CENTERED WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS CENTERED AROUND 00Z...PER A HIGH
RES MODEL CONSENSUS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA 00Z-06Z WITH CB TOPS
REACHING 25000 FT MSL. SHRA ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SPOTTIER AFTER
03Z.
MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AS PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS PICKING UP THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND INCREASING WITH SURFACE GUSTS 50 TO
60 KT OVER RIDGES AND DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOD-STG UP/DOWNDRAFTS AND POSSIBLE ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE MTNS.
EXPECT MTN OBSCURATION ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES ABOVE 2000 FT MSL.
&&
.MARINE...
800 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BIGHT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...SUSTAINED WINDS 10-20
KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT AT 4 PM. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. ALSO...A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...PEAKING EARLY SATURDAY AT 8-11 FT WITH A
PERIOD OF 11-13 SEC. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
111600...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS...WITH VARIABLE BASES 300-
1200 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1100-1300 FT MSL...WILL LIFT THROUGH
17Z. 17Z-21Z...SCT CLOUDS 1000-2500 FT MSL WITH PRIMARILY P6SM. SHRA
CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 21Z WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN LOOKING TO BE
CENTERED WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS CENTERED AROUND 00Z...PER A HIGH
RES MODEL CONSENSUS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA 00Z-06Z WITH CB TOPS
REACHING 25000 FT MSL. SHRA ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SPOTTIER AFTER
03Z.
MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AS PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS PICKING UP THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND INCREASING WITH SURFACE GUSTS 50 TO
60 KT OVER RIDGES AND DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOD-STG UP/DOWNDRAFTS AND POSSIBLE ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE MTNS.
EXPECT MTN OBSCURATION ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES ABOVE 2000 FT MSL.
&&
.MARINE...
800 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BIGHT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...SUSTAINED WINDS 10-20
KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT AT 4 PM. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. ALSO...A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...PEAKING EARLY SATURDAY AT 8-11 FT WITH A
PERIOD OF 11-13 SEC. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY.
&&
.BEACHES...
800 AM...A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM 280-285 DEGREES WILL MOVE INTO
THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PRODUCING ELEVATED
SURF OF 4-6 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER IN NORTHERN ORANGE AND SOUTHERN
SAN DIEGO COUNTIES. ANOTHER LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL LOOKS TO
ARRIVE NEXT MONDAY...BUT THE STEEPER DIRECTION OF 290 DEGREES WILL
RESULT IN FEWER BEACHES IMPACTED WITH HIGH SURF.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR
BANNING.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE
MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT
TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON/GREGORIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
343 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WAS PROVIDING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER
STRATUS CONTINUED TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A
RELATIVELY DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD FURTHER NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. 15Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON TEMPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION...THINK THE CIRRUS WILL
BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...POTENTIALLY THICKENING FURTHER
LATE TODAY AS THE MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
LIFT BACK NORTH. THE BIGGER QUESTION LIES WITH THE LOWER STRATUS
DECK OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MAY KEEP THIS DECK FROM
SHIFTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS BACK ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO. HAVE GONE MUCH
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT...AND THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTH ALL DAY.
WITH GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE...GENERALLY LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF FURTHER
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE THE STRATUS LINGERS.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY THIS EVENING...BUT OVERNIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP EAT AWAY
WITH ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...SO LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE...KEEPING
THE ENTIRE NORTH HALF DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE SOUTH WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
ON SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN...BUT OVERALL FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. ALLOWED POPS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SATURDAY NIGHT BETTER FORCING WILL MOVE IN THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. WHILE THE LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL LOOK GOOD ENOUGH TO GO LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW.
WITH THE UPPER LOW /NOW REALLY A TROUGH/ STILL MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WENT LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS. AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES TO
OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT LOW END LIKELY POPS AS BETTER
FORCING WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTH.
SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL ROB
MOISTURE FROM THE AREA AND COULD RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN OR
AT LEAST LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ONE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AIMS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY EVENING THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND KEEPS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW STALLS AND SPINS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ABOUT
WHEN SMALL UPPER WAVES COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. THUS
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN FROM THE INITIALIZATION. BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY SO
ELIMINATED SPOTTY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME. THEN ON
FRIDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH AND BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BUT DROP A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED UPPER LOW BRINGING
COOL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 11/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SPOTTY MVFR CLOUD DECK COULD HOLD ON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AT KBMG BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT COMPLETELY BY AROUND 20Z. ALSO HAVE
SEEN A DECK DEVELOPING OVER SITES EAST OF KLAF BUT THINK IF ANY
LOWER CEILING DEVELOPS THERE IT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND THUS
WILL LEAVE IT OUT. CIRRUS WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE SITES ALONG
WITH ENE FLOW AROUND 5-10 KTS NOW DROPPING TO 3-6 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. ARRIVAL OF LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN WITH THE NEXT WAVE
MOVING UP SATURDAY IS STILL SOMEWHAT VARIABLE GIVEN A VARIETY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS. STAYED BETWEEN LAV AND LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BETWEEN NAM AND GFS AND BETTER MATCHED CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS
BRINGS IN MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS TO KBMG FIRST AROUND 13Z AND THEN
KHUF AND KIND AROUND 15Z. KLAF SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE MVFR
THROUGH 18Z. TIMING OF RAINFALL ONSET MAY REMAIN AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
249 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WAS PROVIDING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER
STRATUS CONTINUED TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A
RELATIVELY DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD FURTHER NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. 15Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON TEMPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION...THINK THE CIRRUS WILL
BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...POTENTIALLY THICKENING FURTHER
LATE TODAY AS THE MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
LIFT BACK NORTH. THE BIGGER QUESTION LIES WITH THE LOWER STRATUS
DECK OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MAY KEEP THIS DECK FROM
SHIFTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS BACK ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO. HAVE GONE MUCH
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT...AND THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTH ALL DAY.
WITH GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE...GENERALLY LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF FURTHER
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE THE STRATUS LINGERS.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY THIS EVENING...BUT OVERNIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP EAT AWAY
WITH ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...SO LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE...KEEPING
THE ENTIRE NORTH HALF DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE SOUTH WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
ON SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN...BUT OVERALL FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. ALLOWED POPS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SATURDAY NIGHT BETTER FORCING WILL MOVE IN THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. WHILE THE LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL LOOK GOOD ENOUGH TO GO LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW.
WITH THE UPPER LOW /NOW REALLY A TROUGH/ STILL MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WENT LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS. AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES TO
OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT LOW END LIKELY POPS AS BETTER
FORCING WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTH.
SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL ROB
MOISTURE FROM THE AREA AND COULD RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN OR
AT LEAST LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ONE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AIMS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY EVENING THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND KEEPS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW STALLS AND SPINS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ABOUT
WHEN SMALL UPPER WAVES COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. THUS
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN FROM THE INITIALIZATION. BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY SO
ELIMINATED SPOTTY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME. THEN ON
FRIDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH AND BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BUT DROP A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED UPPER LOW BRINGING
COOL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 111800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
SPOTTY MVFR CLOUD DECK COULD HOLD ON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AT KBMG BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT COMPLETELY BY AROUND 20Z. ALSO HAVE
SEEN A DECK DEVELOPING OVER SITES EAST OF KLAF BUT THINK IF ANY
LOWER CEILING DEVELOPS THERE IT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND THUS
WILL LEAVE IT OUT. CIRRUS WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE SITES ALONG
WITH ENE FLOW AROUND 5-10 KTS NOW DROPPING TO 3-6 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. ARRIVAL OF LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN WITH THE NEXT WAVE
MOVING UP SATURDAY IS STILL SOMEWHAT VARIABLE GIVEN A VARIETY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS. STAYED BETWEEN LAV AND LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BETWEEN NAM AND GFS AND BETTER MATCHED CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS
BRINGS IN MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS TO KBMG FIRST AROUND 13Z AND THEN
KHUF AND KIND AROUND 15Z. KLAF SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE MVFR
THROUGH 18Z. TIMING OF RAINFALL ONSET MAY REMAIN AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1202 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WAS PROVIDING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER
STRATUS CONTINUED TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A
RELATIVELY DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD FURTHER NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. 15Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON TEMPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION...THINK THE CIRRUS WILL
BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...POTENTIALLY THICKENING FURTHER
LATE TODAY AS THE MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
LIFT BACK NORTH. THE BIGGER QUESTION LIES WITH THE LOWER STRATUS
DECK OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MAY KEEP THIS DECK FROM
SHIFTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS BACK ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO. HAVE GONE MUCH
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT...AND THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTH ALL DAY.
WITH GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE...GENERALLY LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF FURTHER
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE THE STRATUS LINGERS.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY THIS EVENING...BUT OVERNIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP EAT AWAY
WITH ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS...SO LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE...KEEPING
THE ENTIRE NORTH HALF DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE SOUTH WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.
ON SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN...BUT OVERALL FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. ALLOWED POPS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
SATURDAY NIGHT BETTER FORCING WILL MOVE IN THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. WHILE THE LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL LOOK GOOD ENOUGH TO GO LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW.
WITH THE UPPER LOW /NOW REALLY A TROUGH/ STILL MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WENT LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS. AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES TO
OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT LOW END LIKELY POPS AS BETTER
FORCING WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTH.
SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL ROB
MOISTURE FROM THE AREA AND COULD RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN OR
AT LEAST LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER PATTERN
TRANSITIONS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WEST AND EJECTING
SHORTWAVES TO A BROAD TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
AN UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY
MAY BE AVAILABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION OF
CHOICE BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT.
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
PROVIDING MOMENTARY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
70S FOR TUESDAY AND DECREASED POPS TO DRY DURING THAT TIME FROM
SLIGHT CHANCES. AFTER THAT MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN AND
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF WAVES/PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL FEATURES LEADS
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ACCEPTED INITIALIZATION OF SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS WITH NO CHANGES DURING THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 111800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
SPOTTY MVFR CLOUD DECK COULD HOLD ON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AT KBMG BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT COMPLETELY BY AROUND 20Z. ALSO HAVE
SEEN A DECK DEVELOPING OVER SITES EAST OF KLAF BUT THINK IF ANY
LOWER CEILING DEVELOPS THERE IT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND THUS
WILL LEAVE IT OUT. CIRRUS WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE SITES ALONG
WITH ENE FLOW AROUND 5-10 KTS NOW DROPPING TO 3-6 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. ARRIVAL OF LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN WITH THE NEXT WAVE
MOVING UP SATURDAY IS STILL SOMEWHAT VARIABLE GIVEN A VARIETY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS. STAYED BETWEEN LAV AND LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BETWEEN NAM AND GFS AND BETTER MATCHED CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS
BRINGS IN MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS TO KBMG FIRST AROUND 13Z AND THEN
KHUF AND KIND AROUND 15Z. KLAF SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE MVFR
THROUGH 18Z. TIMING OF RAINFALL ONSET MAY REMAIN AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
254 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS OUR CWA BETWEEN
THESE FEATURE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY LAYER. AT THE SURFACE
STRONG LEE TROUGH IN COLORADO HAS LED TO TIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
AND GUSTY WINDS (25-30KT) ACROSS OUR CWA.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WINDS MAY
REMAIN 10-15KT IN THE WEST AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTHWARD MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BAND OF O
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC AXIS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND ROTATING TOWARDS OUR CWA. CURRENT TREND FROM GFS/ECMWF
NOW MATCHES UP WITH NAM/ARW/NMM WITH THIS REMAINING FURTHER EAST AND
RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT OUR CWA MAY BE MISSED COMPLETELY (HILL
CITY/NORTON STILL SEEING A BETTER CHANCE). WHILE STILL SHOWING THE
POSSIBLY FOR INCREASING STRATUS IN OUR FAR EAST...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED MUCH DRIER IN THE BL CONDITIONS.
I REMOVED DRIZZLE MENTION IN THE MORNING AND I TRENDED POPS BACK TO
20 PERCENT...THOUGH IT KEPT SIMILAR TIMING/POSITION TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUITY JUST IN CASE. THIS ALSO RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES
COULD CLEAR RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES (70S)...AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS. CONSERVATIVE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN THIS
DIRECTION...AND IF THIS IS HOW IT PLAYS OUT THE DAYTIME PERIOD COULD
END UP BEING MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES FOR RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A BAND OF SATURATED AIR MOVES WESTWARD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MAIN LIFT WITH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
BE ABOVE IT IN THE DRIER AIR. AM THINKING THIS...ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA. MODELS
DISAGREE WITH HOW FAR WEST THE RAINFALL WILL EXTEND...SO WENT WITH
THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT. IF RAIN DOES DEVELOP...EXPECT THERE TO ONLY
BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
OVERNIGHT THE SATURATED LAYER WILL DEEPEN TO THE SURFACE...CAUSING
FOG TO FORM. EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN ALONG/EAST OF THE DRY LINE
THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE KS/CO BORDER...WITH THE DENSEST FOG OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY MORNING THE FOG WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. THIS WILL LEAD
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO DECLINE BY MID AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH.
MONDAY HIGHS WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WHICH MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL GIVEN THE FORECAST WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LATE MONDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME ISOLATED RAINFALL MAY MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE CENTER ELONGATING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...GIVING THE AREA ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE SNOW IF
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXTEND INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVES
OVER THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE FROM THE NORTH AFTER
MONDAY...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE BELOW 12KT AFTER SUNSET BEFORE INCREASING SATURDAY WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...TDS FINALLY MIXED THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO DECREASE RH VALUES TO THE
15-20% RANGE. IT DOESNT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE RH AT 15% FOR THE
3HR NECESSARY FOR A RFW OR FOR A LARGE AREA OF ANY INDIVIDUAL
COUNTY. ON SATURDAY...I HAVE CONCERNS THAT IF CLEARING TAKES
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 AS ADVERTISED BY LATEST HI RES MODELS
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SIMILAR SITUATION AS TODAY (NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER). I WILL KEEP MENTION LIMITED TO HWO FOR THESE
PERIODS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25 WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL ANY FURTHER. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO DECLINE BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
NOT ALLOW FOR A MORE THAN A COUPLE HOUR DURATION OF NEAR CRITERIA
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE THE WINDS FALL BELOW CRITERIA.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND FOR THE WEST HALF WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY
THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR/JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
219 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS OUR CWA BETWEEN
THESE FEATURE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY LAYER. AT THE SURFACE
STRONG LEE TROUGH IN COLORADO HAS LED TO TIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
AND GUSTY WINDS (25-30KT) ACROSS OUR CWA.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WINDS MAY
REMAIN 10-15KT IN THE WEST AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTHWARD MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BAND OF O
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC AXIS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND ROTATING TOWARDS OUR CWA. CURRENT TREND FROM GFS/ECMWF
NOW MATCHES UP WITH NAM/ARW/NMM WITH THIS REMAINING FURTHER EAST AND
RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT OUR CWA MAY BE MISSED COMPLETELY (HILL
CITY/NORTON STILL SEEING A BETTER CHANCE). WHILE STILL SHOWING THE
POSSIBLY FOR INCREASING STRATUS IN OUR FAR EAST...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED MUCH DRIER IN THE BL CONDITIONS.
I REMOVED DRIZZLE MENTION IN THE MORNING AND I TRENDED POPS BACK TO
20 PERCENT...THOUGH IT KEPT SIMILAR TIMING/POSITION TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUITY JUST IN CASE. THIS ALSO RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES
COULD CLEAR RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES (70S)...AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS. CONSERVATIVE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN THIS
DIRECTION...AND IF THIS IS HOW IT PLAYS OUT THE DAYTIME PERIOD COULD
END UP BEING MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY DOES GIVE WAY TO A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE FOR THE
MONDAY NIGH TIMEFRAME...CLEARING THE AREA GOING INTO TUESDAY. MODELS
BRING THIS SHORTWAVE TO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGION BY
MIDWEEK...FORMING A STALLED CUTOFF LOW. IN TANDEM...H5 AMPLIFIED
RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS SET UP THRU THE WEEK...THE CWA WILL SEE A
PATTERN SHIFT FROM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...TO MORE NORMAL/JUST BELOW
NORMAL AT TIMES. THE BUILDUP OF THE H5 RIDGE TO THE WEST DOES SET UP
NNW FLOW FOR THE PLAINS REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE THE TRI STATE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL AID
IN DRAGGING DOWN STRONGER COLDER AIR BEHIND THEM AS IT EXITS EAST.
FOR PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION WHILE THE AREA STILL FAIRLY WARM FROM DAYTIME
HEATING...AND WITH ITS QUICK MOVEMENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE
INFLUX...QPF WILL BE LOW AND CONFINED MOSTLY TO NORTHERN AREAS BASED
ON CURRENT MODEL TRACK. WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE SYSTEM TRANSITION
WILL PROMPT A MENTION OF THUNDER. SOME LINGERING -RW POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...BUT REGION BEGINS TO DRY OUT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM DOES MAINLY TRAVEL SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY. COLDER
AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA WILL PROMPT MENTION OF -SW EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NO ACCUM EXPECTED. THE
CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM PUTS SOUTHERN ZONES WITH BESTS CHANCES
TO SEE LIMITED QPF.
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...THEN TRANSITION DOWN
THRU THE 50S DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME...WITH 40S IN SOME LOCALES
BY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TRANSITION DOWNWARD
FROM MAINLY THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT...DOWN INTO THE 20S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
IN ABSENCE OF ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED
SYSTEMS...THE REGION WILL AGAIN BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOW RH READINGS DUE
TO DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW. WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS
SYSTEM EXITS...USHERING IN THE DRIER AIR. DAYTIME WINDS COULD GUSTS
IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE THRU THE DAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE BELOW 12KT AFTER SUNSET BEFORE INCREASING SATURDAY WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016
THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...TDS FINALLY MIXED THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO DECREASE RH VALUES TO THE
15-20% RANGE. IT DOESNT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE RH AT 15% FOR THE
3HR NECESSARY FOR A RFW OR FOR A LARGE AREA OF ANY INDIVIDUAL
COUNTY. ON SATURDAY...I HAVE CONCERNS THAT IF CLEARING TAKES
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 AS ADVERTISED BY LATEST HI RES MODELS
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SIMILAR SITUATION AS TODAY (NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER). I WILL KEEP MENTION LIMITED TO HWO FOR THESE
PERIODS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1134 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL FROM KAEX TO KLFT AND
KARA, HOWEVER THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG MAY OCCUR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
UPDATE...
RADAR IS INDICATING RAINS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS SE TX AND SRN LA
AS THE UPPER LVL LOW IS STILL ANCHORED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE
LOCATED NEAR HOU TMRW. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO EXIT CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND LOWER ACADIANA. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES TODAY...BUT THINK THAT MVFR CIGS WILL
BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH VFR CEILINGS
FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. WILL BRING BACK MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
UPDATE...
PER LATEST TRENDS OF STRONGEST SHRA/TSRA MOVING FASTER INLAND OVER
LA AND HRRR FORECAST FINALLY COMING ABOARD...LOWERED POPS AND SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE SOONER THIS MORNING FROM W TO EAST THIS MORNING. STILL COULD
HAVE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GULF...THUS LEAVING 40-60%
LATER THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SLOW MOVING VIGOROUS UPPER STORM
SYSTEM OVER OLD MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY IN S TX ALMOST OVER
BROWNSVILLE...CONTINUING TO PUMP SHRA/TSRA OVER MOST OF THE GULF
SPREADING N INTO SE TX/LA/MS THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...RADAR
SHOWING ONE SIGNIFICANT PULSE OF ENERGY AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SPREADING INLAND ACROSS C
AND SC LA FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THUS...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER C AND SC LA...AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. FURTHER INTO THE GULF...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...AND PROGGED TO SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS
MORNING ACROSS SE TX/LA. TRIED TO TIME THE PERIODS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN IN 3 HRLY SEGMENTS...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN NOW MOVING INLAND FASTER...LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SE TX/C AND
S LA THRU 6 PM TODAY. FOR THE SE TX...EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.
FOR C AND S LA...EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES.
THE UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING NE SAT AND OUT OF
OUR REGION BY SAT NIGHT. SO...MIGHT HAVE A BREAK THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECTING ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP BEFORE THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS NE LATE SAT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ARKLATEX...BUT
LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWN MUCH LESS MOISTURE ALOFT TO WORK
WITH SUN...SO AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE WELL INTO TUE. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FOR THU/FRI...COULD BE A WET COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A GULF LOW AND STALLED FRONT.
DML
MARINE...
ELEVATED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN 20-60NM MARINE ZONES
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...SUBSIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. FOR THIS...GOING
WITH A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S OVER
LOWER/MID 60S WATER TEMPS AROUND VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS...AREAS
OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD LIFT A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY....DIMINISHING SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
DML
HYDROLOGY...
RECORD POOL LEVELS AND RELEASES AT TOLEDO BEND (LAST REPORT
YESTERDAY WAS 174.36 FT WITH RELEASES OVER 200,000 CFS) HAS
RESULTED IN RECORD FLOODING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM THE SABINE
RIVER AT BURKEVILLE...WITH A READING OF 52.6 FEET AT 1 AM (OLD
RECORD WAS 48.1 FEET ON 02/01/1999). MAJOR FLOODING IS ONGOING
AND WILL CONTINUE FURTHER DOWN THE SABINE AT BON WIER...AND
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE RECORD LEVEL AT DEWEYVILLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...BAYOU ANACOCO NEAR ROSEPINE HAS ALSO BROKE A RECORD
LEVEL REPORTING AT 29.0 FT AT 1:45 AM (OLD RECORD WAS 28.4 FEET ON
05/19/1953). ALONG THE CALCASIEU RIVER...MODERATE TO MAJOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM
GLENMORA TO OLD TOWN BAY.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 62 74 58 / 70 40 50 20
LCH 75 62 75 62 / 50 30 30 10
LFT 75 64 76 61 / 60 50 50 10
BPT 76 61 75 63 / 50 20 30 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
041>045-052>055-073-074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GMZ472-475.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1143 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS DEEP MIXING ACROSS NRN NEB THIS AFTN WITH
THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD REACH
NEAR 700MB. FARTHER SOUTH...THESE HEIGHT APPROACH 725- 750MB WHICH
IS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES A MIDDLE OF
ROAD APPROACH...CLOSE TO THE RAP MODEL...FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 70S NORTH...LOWER 70S SOUTH. NEARLY FULL SUN IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOW PRESSURE WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT A RATHER MESSY PATTERN ALOFT...BUT REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP OVER TEXAS AND IS FORCED NORTHEAST BY AN
UPSTREAM FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE. THE BEST DPVA/MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE FA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS AND NOT ALL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN AS THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
EVEN IF RAIN IS NOT REALIZED WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS STRATUS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WHERE LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE EARLY...HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND CLEARING SKIES...HIGHS WILL
RESPOND NICELY AND RISE ABOVE 70F ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST PLACES.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE BEGINS IT/S
INITIAL BREAKDOWN TO THE EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S APPEAR LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. SW
WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL TRANSPORT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH NEAR CRITICAL RH FORECAST FOR SW NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE
LOW RH...WINDS DO NOT FAVOR LARGE FIRE SPREAD UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. NOTE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT
FAVORS LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE MODELS
SUGGESTING SOME QPF FOR THE CWA. THE TREND FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
IS A WEAKER OPEN WAVE WITH LESSER IMPACTS...THUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE BECOMING LESS CERTAIN. AT A MINIMUM...SPOTTY SHOWERS OR
EVEN A TSTORM /MODELS INDICATE UP TO A 200 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE MONDAY
EVENING/ WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COOLING TREND THEN FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MODELS KEEP THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH UNTIL THEN...KEEPING THE REGION UNSETTLED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 10
TO 20 KTS TODAY...DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
A BLEND OF THE HRRR...RAP AND HRRR EXPERIMENTAL MODELS COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S PRODUCES RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 12
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP IN MANY
AREAS HOWEVER THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTN COULD PRESENT
A WEAKNESS IN THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...SWRN NEB AND
FAR NRN NEB.
THE LOESS PLAINS WILL BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
925 AM PST FRI MAR 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF STORMS ARE ON TRACK TO BRING RAIN AND
WIND TO OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE COAST
TODAY, THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY FOR A 2-3 DAY PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON RAINFALL AMOUNT AND WE HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL
FLOOD WATCH FOR COOS, CURRY, JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. THIS
FLOOD WATCH PERTAINS TO LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. OF A
PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE CHETCO RIVER AND HUNTER CREEK IN
SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY WHERE HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY COULD EXACERBATE
THE RIVER HEIGHT. THE LATEST RAINFALL FORECAST ALSO BRINGS THE
COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE MONDAY AND WE HAVE
ISSUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MAIN STEM COQUILLE RIVER AT
COQUILLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ARE STILL POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS FOR THOSE AREAS WHERE WE ISSUED THE
AREAL FLOOD WATCH. THEREFORE WE ARE KEEPING THE HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK FOR THOSE AREAS.
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE WITH GALE
WARNING. ANOTHER STORM ON SUNDAY COULD PUSH THE WINDS TO HIGH
GALE.
WITH THE SNOW LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET, THE
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW THIS WEEKEND AND THE WINTER STORM
WARNING CONTINUES. SEE PDXWSWMFR FOR DETAILS. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION TODAY. HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND COULD BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS. IN
NORTHERN CAL, MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS NEAR MOUNT SHASTA. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT TONIGHT AT THE COAST AND INLAND WESTSIDE TERMINALS. GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING KLAMATH
FALLS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST FRI 11 MAR 2016...LOW PRESSURE JUST
WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PRODUCE SOME SOUTH WINDS TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS,
AS OBSERVED SEAS ARE ALREADY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND REACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT, BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE FOR A 6 HOUR PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH FRONT REACHING THE COAST AROUND 4 AM PST SATURDAY,
THEN MOVING ONSHORE. THE NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
ONE WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING. THE EC AND GFS SHOW A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR 135W SATURDAY EVENING, RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND MOVING
INSIDE OF 130 W EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE WASHINGTON COAST LATER SUNDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS
IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO WARRANT STORM FORCE
WINDS, BUT GALES ARE LIKELY.
FOR NOW IN ORDER TO AVOID CONFUSION, WE`LL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
UNTIL THE FIRST GALE WARNING EXPIRES. IF THAT WEREN`T ENOUGH, VERY
HIGH AND VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE IN SUNDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND HIGH SWELL COULD RESULT
IN DANGEROUS SEAS AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL
THIS PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER ENDS. -BPN/PETRUCELLI
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM PST FRI MAR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...11/00Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN INITIALLY SHOWS A
WAVE NUMBER OF THREE AROUND THE GLOBE...WHICH IS USUALLY A
STAGNANT OR RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURE ENOUGH...THERE IS REX
BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. HOWEVER...IT WILL MORPH TO A FOUR
WAVE PATTERN LATER ON TODAY...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A RESUMPTION
OF A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. IF THE 10/12Z AND 11/00Z EC
VERIFIES...THE THREE WAVE PATTERN WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A SIGNIFICANT BLOCK SETTING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CLOSER IN...IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED REX BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
SHORT WAVES EJECTED BY THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL BRING CONTINUED
ROUNDS OF WIND AND PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY DIRECTED INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THAT`S WHERE THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MEDFORD CWA WILL EXTEND FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA NORTHWEST
THROUGH WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AND
COAST RANGE. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATIC NORMALS FOR THIS DATE. WINDS WILL NOT BE A MAJOR
FACTOR...EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY. WITH 700 MB FLOW
PEAKING AT ABOUT 45 KT...IT WILL BE BREEZY THERE WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE AT WEED.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ONE WILL BE DIRECTED FARTHER NORTH. THE
INITIAL TARGET WILL BE THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST...BUT WILL
SHIFT FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME. THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WAVE
WILL STILL BE AROUND WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH YET
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND COAST
RANGE FROM CENTRAL OREGON DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ALL THIS WILL
OCCUR IN A COLDER THAN NORMAL ENVIRONMENT WITH SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNDAY HIGHS AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BY THIS TIME FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE PERSISTENT AND
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ALONG
THE COQUILLE RIVER FROM MYRTLE POINT TO THE OCEAN.
THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SNOW EVENT AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO HIGHER
WEST AND SOUTHWEST FACING TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE CASCADES...MAY
GET QUITE A BIT OF UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FEET THROUGHOUT THIS INTERVAL...SO AREAS
SUCH AS DIAMOND LAKE...CRATER LAKE...MOUNT ASHLAND...MOUNT
SHASTA...AND OTHER AREAS OVER 5000 FEET MAY WIND UP WITH 4 TO 6
FEET OF SNOW BY THE TIME IT ALL ENDS.
WEAKER WAVES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS INTERVAL. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE SATURDAY HIGHS...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY...
EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE CENTERPIECE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK. THE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES THE STORM TRACK BACK NORTH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION...FOR THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION TODAY. HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND COULD BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS. IN
NORTHERN CAL, MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS NEAR MOUNT SHASTA. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT TONIGHT AT THE COAST AND INLAND WESTSIDE TERMINALS. GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS
FOR THE TAF PERIOD. -PETRUCELLI
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST FRI 11 MAR 2016...STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 38N/130W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO NORTHERN CAL. HOWEVER THE 6Z NAM SHOWS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AROUND 4 AM PST THIS MORNING AND MOVING NORTH OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP ALSO HINTS AT THIS. IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT, THEN SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE, POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO, BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND REACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT, BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE FOR A 6 HOUR PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FRONT REACHING THE COAST AROUND 4 AM PST
SATURDAY, THEN MOVING ONSHORE. THE NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS ONE WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING. THE EC AND GFS SHOW
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 135W SATURDAY EVENING, RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AND MOVING INSIDE OF 130 W EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON COAST LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS MAY BE TOO FAR
NORTH TO WARRANT STORM FORCE WINDS, BUT GALES ARE LIKELY. FOR NOW
IN ORDER TO AVOID CONFUSION, WE`LL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES UNTIL
THE FIRST GALE WARNING EXPIRES. IF THAT WEREN`T ENOUGH, VERY HIGH
AND VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE IN SUNDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND HIGH SWELL COULD RESULT
IN DANGEROUS SEAS AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL
THIS PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER ENDS. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM PST SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR ORZ027-028.
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ021>024.
CA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
CAZ080>083.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM PST SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR CAZ082.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM PST SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR CAZ080.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM PST SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR CAZ083.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 AM PST SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
FJB/FJB/MAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN ACROSS FAR SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTN...WHICH IS PROVIDING RICH GULF MOISTURE AND HENCE HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR SOME OF THE GULF STATES. LOOKING CLOSER TO HOME...N-NE
SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY /15-20 MPH/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA COURTESY OF THE SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSED
BY THE UA LOW. FURTHERMORE...THE NWRN EDGE OF THE UA LOW HAS AIDED
IN STREAMING IN HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT IS STRUGGLING TO FILTER
IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS /WHERE LOWERED
CLOUD DECKS WERE NOTED/ AS SEEN VIA 21Z RADAR ANALYSIS. WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS
VERSUS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND WRN ZONES...THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BIT OF A TEMP
GRADIENT THIS AFTN /LOWER TO UPPER 60S ON THE CAPROCK VERSUS LOWER
60S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/.
THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RAINFALL SHIFTING NORTH AND WEST WITH TIME LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...WHICH COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
AND PERHAPS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER THE UL SUPPORT APPEARS
TO LOSE SOME OF ITS LUSTER WHICH EXPLAINS THE WANING SIGNAL OF THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME LIGHT DURING THIS
TIME...THUS BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NAM SHOW FOG DEVELOPING INITIALLY
JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FA AND POSSIBLY SPREAD NW THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
WRN AND NWRN ZONES COULD MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL WITH
PERHAPS A STRATUS DECK BEING THE LIKELY SCENARIO. NONETHELESS...CAN
NOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG MORE SO ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE FALLEN AND THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE CLOUD-FREE WRN ZONES
MAY HAVE A HIGHER FOG-RISK...BUT ANTICIPATED SFC WINDS VEERING TO
THE SW COULD PROVE DIFFICULT FOR THIS TO OCCUR. WHAT MAY BE A
CONCERN IS TEMPS DROPPING TO/BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES
WHICH HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST TWO DAYS.
SATURDAY...THE UA LOW WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE AND SHIFT NE TO
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE MORNING AND NEARING ERN TX BY THE AFTN.
ITS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE FLEETING WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE NERN ZONES DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTN.
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST... SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW WINDS AND
AN UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S
AND 70S. WARMEST AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE TX/NM
BORDER WHICH COULD RAISE CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...
A SHARP AND FAST MOVING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON OUR HEELS
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WHICH
WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
THE 20-25 KT RANGE. IF THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OF THE LOW WERE TO
OCCUR 6-12 HOURS LATER DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WE WOULD PROBABLY BE
LOOKING AT A DECENT...ALBEIT SHORT LIVED...WIND EVENT. THANKFULLY
THAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE CASE. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRYING TO SPAWN
QPF ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS THE LOW PASSES. THE GFS HAS BEEN
THE LONE OPTIMISTIC WITH QPF IN TODAYS RUNS AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
REMAIN DRY. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE IN ALOFT AS THE LOW PASSES
TO OUR EAST UNTIL TUESDAY AS A DEEPER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATOON AMPLIFIES. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP MONDAY BEFORE
THE AMPLIFICATION AND WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AROUND 20-25 KTS.
THIS WILL IN TURN WARM TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S MONDAY. WEST
WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP
COOL TEMPS WHY A WHOPPING 3-5 DEGREES. THOUGH THAT WILL BE JUST A
SMALL CHANGE IN TEMPS IT WILL BE THE FIRST DOMINO TO FALL AND START
A TREND.
THOUGH MODELS HAVE DIFFERED ON TIMING THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
PUSHING A FRONT (AND WIND) INTO THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL COOL TEMPS A GREAT DEAL. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL
GREATLY DICTATE WHAT HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE NEXT THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...HIGHS LOOK TO COOL TO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY LOW 60S BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO FORECAST AS IN ADDITION TO
FROPA TIMING THERE IS THE ISSUE OF PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS
(AMONG OTHER THINGS). MODEL GUIDANCE HAS POST FRONTAL LOWS ANYWHERE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID/UPPER 20S. GIVEN HOW MUCH VEGETATION
IS BEGINNING TO COME TO LIFE WITH TREES AND CROPS BUDDING/FLOWERING
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. WHILE FREEZING TEMPS HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS WOULD BE THE
FIRST FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS SINCE GREEN UP HAS STARTED
TO OCCUR. THE OTHER UNKNOWN IS IF THE FRONT WILL BE WET OR DRY. THE
GFS SAYS IT WILL BE WET...MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE GFS HAS A LONGER PERIOD OF RETURN. FOR NOW POPS HAVE
BEEN TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. ALDRICH
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/51
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DEFINITE DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE...WE/LL
MENTION VCSH FOR THE I-35 SITES FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS THIS
MORNING. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE I-35 SITES IS
EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH SOME EXPECTED
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION
VCTS ALONG I-35 ALONG WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA FROM
11/21Z-12/01Z. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REDUCED.
OUT WEST AT KDRT...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RAIN
THIS MORNING AND WE/LL CARRY PREVAILING -SHRA THROUGH 16Z. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE
AFTERNOON HEATING HELPS INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LINGERING TO THE SOUTH OF ATASCOSA COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF TODAY WITH EPISODES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...HIRES MODELS SUGGEST A
NEW ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES AND ALONG INTERSTATE 35. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AS BOTH NAM AND GFS AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES OF-4 TO -7. MAIN THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS
WOULD BE SMALL HAIL AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO PUSH AWAY FROM
THE AREA WITH SOME LINGER LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO
AN END ACROSS THE EAST WHILE CLEARING TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 60S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. A WARMING TREND
AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS COMING OUT OF THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AVERAGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES OVER THE AREA AND A LONG
WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 75 57 84 57 / 50 10 0 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 54 75 56 84 55 / 50 10 0 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 54 76 56 84 55 / 40 10 0 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 52 72 57 81 55 / 50 20 0 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 52 78 54 85 51 / 20 - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 54 72 57 83 55 / 50 20 0 - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 53 76 52 85 52 / 30 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 74 57 84 55 / 40 10 0 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 57 75 59 83 56 / 40 10 - - 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 55 75 57 84 56 / 40 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 55 77 57 85 55 / 40 10 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TREADWAY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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